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Sample records for pressure risk model

  1. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure

    MedlinePlus

    ... the NHLBI on Twitter. Risk Factors for High Blood Pressure Anyone can develop high blood pressure; however, age, ... can increase your risk for developing high blood pressure. Age Blood pressure tends to rise with age. About 65 ...

  2. High Blood Pressure May Hike Dementia Risk

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_161398.html High Blood Pressure May Hike Dementia Risk New statement from American ... MONDAY, Oct. 10, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- High blood pressure, particularly in middle age, might open the door ...

  3. Recording pressure ulcer risk assessment and incidence.

    PubMed

    Plaskitt, Anne; Heywood, Nicola; Arrowsmith, Michaela

    2015-07-15

    This article reports on the introduction of an innovative computer-based system developed to record and report pressure ulcer risk and incidence at an acute NHS trust. The system was introduced to ensure that all patients have an early pressure ulcer risk assessment, which prompts staff to initiate appropriate management if a pressure ulcer is detected, thereby preventing further patient harm. Initial findings suggest that this electronic process has helped to improve the timeliness and accuracy of data on pressure ulcer risk and incidence. In addition, it has resulted in a reduced number of reported hospital-acquired pressure ulcers.

  4. Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fogarty, Jennifer A.; Durham, T.; Otto, C.; Grounds, D.; Davis, J. R.

    2010-01-01

    Since 2006 there have been 6 reported cases of altered visual acuity and intracranial pressure (ICP) in long duration astronauts. In order to document this risk and develop an integrated approach to its mitigation, the NASA Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) and Human Research Program (HRP) have chosen to use the Human System Risk Board (HSRB) and the risk management analysis tool (RMAT). The HSRB is the venue in which the stakeholders and customers discuss and vet the evidence and the RMAT is the tool that facilitates documentation and comparison of the evidence across mission profiles as well as identification of risk factors, and documentation of mitigation strategies. This process allows for information to be brought forward and dispositioned so that it may be properly incorporated into the RMAT and contribute to the design of the research and mitigation plans. The evidence thus far has resulted in the identification of a visual impairment/intracranial pressure (VIIP) project team, updating of both short and long duration medical requirements designed to assess visual acuity, and a research plan to characterize this issue further. In order to understand this issue more completely, a plan to develop an Accelerated Research Collaboration (ARC) has been approved by the HSRB. The ARC is a novel research model pioneered by the Myelin Repair Foundation. It is a patient centered research model that brings together researchers and clinicians, under the guidance of a scientific advisory panel, to collaborate and produce results much quickly than accomplished through traditional research models. The data and evidence from the updated medical requirements and the VIIP ARC will be reviewed at the HSRB on a regular basis. Each review package presented to the HSRB will include an assessment and recommendation with respect to continuation of research, countermeasure development, occupational surveillance modalities, selection criteria, etc. This process will determine the

  5. Patient repositioning and pressure ulcer risk--monitoring interface pressures of at-risk patients.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Matthew J; Gravenstein, Nikolaus; Schwab, Wilhelm K; van Oostrom, Johannes H; Caruso, Lawrence J

    2013-01-01

    Repositioning patients regularly to prevent pressure ulcers and reduce interface pressures is the standard of care, yet prior work has found that standard repositioning does not relieve all areas of at-risk tissue in nondisabled subjects. To determine whether this holds true for high-risk patients, we assessed the effectiveness of routine repositioning in relieving at-risk tissue of the perisacral area using interface pressure mapping. Bedridden patients at risk for pressure ulcer formation (n = 23, Braden score <18) had their perisacral skin-bed interface pressures recorded every 30 s while they received routine repositioning care for 4-6 h. All participants had specific skin areas (206 +/- 182 cm(2)) that exceeded elevated pressure thresholds for >95% of the observation period. Thirteen participants were observed in three distinct positions (supine, turned left, turned right), and all had specific skin areas (166 +/- 184 cm(2)) that exceeded pressure thresholds for >95% of the observation period. At-risk patients have skin areas that are likely always at risk throughout their hospital stay despite repositioning. Healthcare providers are unaware of the actual tissue-relieving effectiveness (or lack thereof) of their repositioning interventions, which may partially explain why pressure ulcer mitigation strategies are not always successful. Relieving at-risk tissue is a necessary part of pressure ulcer prevention, but the repositioning practice itself needs improvement.

  6. Are Some Blood Pressure Meds Linked to Depression, Bipolar Risk?

    MedlinePlus

    ... gov/news/fullstory_161421.html Are Some Blood Pressure Meds Linked to Depression, Bipolar Risk? Researchers add ... TUESDAY, Oct. 11, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Some blood pressure drugs may boost the risk that patients will ...

  7. Vegetarian diet, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Rouse, I L; Beilin, L J; Armstrong, B K; Vandongen, R

    1984-08-01

    This paper reviews the association between a vegetarian diet and a number of risk factors for cardiovascular disease investigated in a series of epidemiological and experimental studies. Ninety-eight Seventh-day Adventist "vegetarians" were similar to 113 Mormon omnivores for strength of religious affiliation, consumption of alcohol, tea and coffee and use of tobacco, but were significantly less obese and had significantly lower blood pressures adjusted for age, height and weight. A random sample of forty-seven Adventist vegetarians had significantly lower home blood pressures, serum cholesterol levels and blood pressure responses to a cold-pressor test than Mormon omnivores carefully matched for age, sex and Quetelet's index. In a controlled dietary intervention study mean systolic and diastolic blood pressures and serum cholesterol fell significantly during feeding with a vegetarian diet--an effect unrelated to changes in other lifestyle factors. Dietary analysis indicated that a vegetarian diet provided more polyunsaturated fat, fibre, vitamin C, vitamin E, magnesium, calcium and potassium and significantly less total fat, saturated fat and cholesterol than an omnivore diet. There was no evidence for a difference between vegetarians and omnivores in levels of catecholamines, plasma renin activity, angiotensin II, cortisol or serum and urinary prostanoids.

  8. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Clinical validation of Braden and Bergstrom's conceptual schema of pressure sore risk factors.

    PubMed

    Copeland-Fields, L D; Hoshiko, B R

    1989-01-01

    Pressure sores are a health problem that crosses clinical practice settings. Today, emphasis is on prevention by identification of risk factors associated with pressure sore development. The Braden and Bergstrom (1987) schema of etiologies of pressure sores has been reported to be a useful predictor of client risk for pressure sore development. This clinical validation study examined relevance of the 13 schema factors to a rehabilitation setting. Using Fehring's (1986) validation model to analyze responses, the findings suggested that in the rehabilitation setting, four schema factors were critical risk factors (decreased mobility, decreased activity, decreased sensory perception, and increased friction), five were risk factors (increased moisture, increased shear, decreased nutrition, decreased arteriolar pressure, and decreased interstitial fluid flow), and four were not considered risk factors (increased age, emotional stress, smoking, and skin temperature). Fifteen additional risk factors, many of which are psychosocial, were suggested.

  10. ''Swiss cheese'' models with pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Bona, C.; Stela, J.

    1987-11-15

    Local spherically symmetric inhomogeneities are matched to a spatially flat Robertson-Walker background with pressure. In the cases in which the background evolves to an Einstein--de Sitter dust universe, the interior metrics tend with time either to the vacuum Schwarzschild solution or to the spatially flat Tolman dust metrics. The whole construction may be interpreted as the history of the dust-filled ''Swiss cheese'' models.

  11. General Pressurization Model in Simscape

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Servin, Mario; Garcia, Vicky

    2010-01-01

    System integration is an essential part of the engineering design process. The Ares I Upper Stage (US) is a complex system which is made up of thousands of components assembled into subsystems including a J2-X engine, liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquid oxygen (LO2) tanks, avionics, thrust vector control, motors, etc. System integration is the task of connecting together all of the subsystems into one large system. To ensure that all the components will "fit together" as well as safety and, quality, integration analysis is required. Integration analysis verifies that, as an integrated system, the system will behave as designed. Models that represent the actual subsystems are built for more comprehensive analysis. Matlab has been an instrument widely use by engineers to construct mathematical models of systems. Simulink, one of the tools offered by Matlab, provides multi-domain graphical environment to simulate and design time-varying systems. Simulink is a powerful tool to analyze the dynamic behavior of systems over time. Furthermore, Simscape, a tool provided by Simulink, allows users to model physical (such as mechanical, thermal and hydraulic) systems using physical networks. Using Simscape, a model representing an inflow of gas to a pressurized tank was created where the temperature and pressure of the tank are measured over time to show the behavior of the gas. By further incorporation of Simscape into model building, the full potential of this software can be discovered and it hopefully can become a more utilized tool.

  12. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Bowen, Susan Caskey

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivity analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.

  13. Central aortic blood pressure assessment and cardiovascular risk.

    PubMed

    Ram, C Venkata S

    2010-01-01

    Peripheral brachial blood pressure measurements may not provide an accurate representation of degenerative changes that characterize cardiovascular disease. Evidence is mounting that antihypertensive treatment strategies with apparently similar effects on brachial blood pressure may have different effects on central aortic pressure, which in turn may lead to overestimation or underestimation of therapeutic efficacy. The relative importance of central and brachial blood pressure for predicting cardiovascular risk and clinical outcomes has been examined in several clinical studies. These studies have reported that a large proportion of individuals considered to have normal blood pressure values based on brachial systolic pressures had high-normal blood pressure based on central aortic pressure measurements. As additional evidence suggesting the superiority of central aortic pressure over peripheral assessments becomes more abundant, measurement of central aortic pressure may be the next important advancement in the management of hypertension.

  14. Pore pressure propagation in a permeable thin-layer coal seam based on a dual porosity model: A case of risk prediction of water inrush in coalmines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, B.; Gao, F.; Yang, J. W.; Zhou, G. Q.

    2016-08-01

    Thin-layer coal seams, a type of filling coal rock body, are considered aquifer systems made up of dual porosity medium with immediate floor. A numerical simulation for the pore pressure propagation along a thin-layer coal seam was carried out for the case of the Zhaogezhuang coalmine in China. By valuing the permeability (Kf ) of the thin-layer coal seam, pore pressure variation with time was simulated and compared to the analytical solutions of a dual porosity model (DPM). The main conclusions were drawn as follow: (1) Seepage in the thin-layer coal seam was predominant in the whole process, and the distance of seepage was lengthened and the pore pressure decreased with increased Kf , (2) A series of simulated hydraulic graphs demonstrated that the pore pressure characteristics of peak-occurring and time-lag effects agreed with the analytical solutions of DPM; (3) By adjusting the parameters of DPM, two results of analytical solutions and numerical solutions fit well, particularly in the thin-layer coal seam, (4) The power law relationship between the peak-values and lag time of pore pressure were derived statistically under consideration of the Kf parameter in the range of 10-8 to 10-10 m2/pa-s orders, and it was reasonable that the Kf of the thin-layer coal seam was in the range of 10-8 m2/pa-s orders. The results were significantly helpful in decision-making for mining water prevention and prediction in practice.

  15. Biosafety Risk Assessment Model

    2011-05-27

    Software tool based on a structured methodology for conducting laboratory biosafety risk assessments by biosafety experts. Software is based upon an MCDA scheme and uses peer reviewed criteria and weights. The software was developed upon Microsoft’s .net framework. The methodology defines likelihood and consequence of a laboratory exposure for thirteen unique scenarios and provides numerical relative risks for each of the relevant thirteen. The software produces 2-d graphs reflecting the relative risk and a sensitivitymore » analysis which highlights the overall importance of each factor. The software works as a set of questions with absolute scales and uses a weighted additive model to calculate the likelihood and consequence.« less

  16. Pressure ulcer risk of patient handling sling use.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Matthew J; Kahn, Julie A; Kerrigan, Michael V; Gutmann, Joseph M; Harrow, Jeffrey J

    2015-01-01

    Patient handling slings and lifts reduce the risk of musculoskeletal injuries for healthcare providers. However, no published evidence exists of their safety with respect to pressure ulceration for vulnerable populations, specifically persons with spinal cord injury, nor do any studies compare slings for pressure distribution. High-resolution interface pressure mapping was used to describe and quantify risks associated with pressure ulceration due to normal forces and identify at-risk anatomical locations. We evaluated 23 patient handling slings with 4 nondisabled adults. Sling-participant interface pressures were recorded while participants lay supine on a hospital bed and while suspended during typical patient transfers. Sling-participant interface pressures were greatest while suspended for all seated and supine slings and exceeded 200 mm Hg for all seated slings. Interface pressures were greatest along the sling seams (edges), regardless of position or sling type. The anatomical areas most at risk while participants were suspended in seated slings were the posterior upper and lower thighs. For supine slings, the perisacral area, ischial tuberosities, and greater trochanters were most at risk. The duration of time spent in slings, especially while suspended, should be limited.

  17. Clustering-based limb identification for pressure ulcer risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Baran Pouyan, M; Nourani, M; Pompeo, M

    2015-01-01

    Bedridden patients have a high risk of developing pressure ulcers. Risk assessment for pressure ulceration is critical for preventive care. For a reliable assessment, we need to identify and track the limbs continuously and accurately. In this paper, we propose a method to identify body limbs using a pressure mat. Three prevalent sleep postures (supine, left and right postures) are considered. Then, predefined number of limbs (body parts) are identified by applying Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering on key attributes. We collected data from 10 adult subjects and achieved average accuracy of 93.2% for 10 limbs in supine and 7 limbs in left/right postures.

  18. Acute radiation risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, Olga

    Biologically motivated mathematical models, which describe the dynamics of the major hematopoietic lineages (the thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems) in acutely/chronically irradiated humans are developed. These models are implemented as systems of nonlinear differential equations, which variables and constant parameters have clear biological meaning. It is shown that the developed models are capable of reproducing clinical data on the dynamics of these systems in humans exposed to acute radiation in the result of incidents and accidents, as well as in humans exposed to low-level chronic radiation. Moreover, the averaged value of the "lethal" dose rates of chronic irradiation evaluated within models of these four major hematopoietic lineages coincides with the real minimal dose rate of lethal chronic irradiation. The demonstrated ability of the models of the human thrombocytopoietic, lymphocytopoietic, granulocytopoietic, and erythropoietic systems to predict the dynamical response of these systems to acute/chronic irradiation in wide ranges of doses and dose rates implies that these mathematical models form an universal tool for the investigation and prediction of the dynamics of the major human hematopoietic lineages for a vast pattern of irradiation scenarios. In particular, these models could be applied for the radiation risk assessment for health of astronauts exposed to space radiation during long-term space missions, such as voyages to Mars or Lunar colonies, as well as for health of people exposed to acute/chronic irradiation due to environmental radiological events.

  19. Modeling the Effects of Moisture-Related Skin-Support Friction on the Risk for Superficial Pressure Ulcers during Patient Repositioning in Bed.

    PubMed

    Shaked, Eliav; Gefen, Amit

    2013-01-01

    Patient repositioning when the skin is moist, e.g., due to sweat or urine may cause skin breakdown since wetness increases the skin-support coefficient of friction (COF) and hence also the shear stresses that are generated in the skin when the patient is being moved. This everyday hospital scenario was never studied systematically however. The aim of this study was to simulate such interactions using a biomechanical computational model which is the first of its kind, in order to quantitatively describe the effects of repositioning on the pathomechanics of moisture-related tissue damage. We designed a finite element model to analyze skin stresses under a weight-bearing bony prominence while this region of interest slides frictionally over the support surface, as occurs during repositioning. Our results show, expectedly, that maximal effective stresses in the skin increase as the moisture-contents-related COF between the skin and the mattress rises. Interestingly however, the rise in stresses for a wet interface became more prominent when the skin tissue was stiffer - which represented aging or diabetes. This finding demonstrates how the aged/diabetic skin is more fragile than a young-adult skin when repositioning in a moist environment. The modeling used herein can now be extended to test effects of different moisturizers, creams, lubricants, or possibly other interventions at the skin-support interface for testing their potential in protecting the skin from superficial pressure ulcers in a standard, objective, and quantitative manner.

  20. Modeling the pressure-dilatation correlation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarkar, S.

    1991-01-01

    It is generally accepted that pressure dilatation, which is an additional compressibility term in turbulence transport equations, may be important for high speed flows. Recent direct simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence have given concrete evidence that the pressure dilatation is important insofar that it contributes to the reduced growth of turbulent kinetic energy due to compressibility effects. The problem of modeling pressure dilatation is addressed. A component of the pressure dilatation is isolated which exhibits temporal oscillations and, using direct numerical simulations of homogeneous shear turbulence and isotropic turbulence, show that it has a negligible contribution to the evolution of turbulent kinetic energy. Then, an analysis for the case of homogeneous turbulence is performed to obtain a model for the nonoscillatory pressure dilatation. This model algebraically relates the pressure dilatation to quantities traditionally obtained in incompressible turbulence closures. The model is validated by direct comparison with the pressure dilatation data obtained from the simulations.

  1. Pressure Systems Stored-Energy Threshold Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Paulsen, Samuel S.

    2009-08-25

    Federal Regulation 10 CFR 851, which became effective February 2007, brought to light potential weaknesses regarding the Pressure Safety Program at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). The definition of a pressure system in 10 CFR 851 does not contain a limit based upon pressure or any other criteria. Therefore, the need for a method to determine an appropriate risk-based hazard level for pressure safety was identified. The Laboratory has historically used a stored energy of 1000 lbf-ft to define a pressure hazard; however, an analytical basis for this value had not been documented. This document establishes the technical basis by evaluating the use of stored energy as an appropriate criterion to establish a pressure hazard, exploring a suitable risk threshold for pressure hazards, and reviewing the methods used to determine stored energy. The literature review and technical analysis concludes the use of stored energy as a method for determining a potential risk, the 1000 lbf-ft threshold, and the methods used by PNNL to calculate stored energy are all appropriate. Recommendations for further program improvements are also discussed

  2. [Risk assessment for pressure ulcer in critical patients].

    PubMed

    Gomes, Flávia Sampaio Latini; Bastos, Marisa Antonini Ribeiro; Matozinhos, Fernanda Penido; Temponi, Hanrieti Rotelli; Velásquez-Meléndez, Gustavo

    2011-04-01

    Bedridden patients are in risk to developing pressure ulcers and represent a priority group to be studied to identify this condition. To reach this goal, specific instruments are used to assess this problem. The objective of this study was to analyze the risk factors to developing pressure ulcers in adult patients hospitalized in ICUs. This is a sectional analytical study, in which evaluations were performed on 140 patients, hospitalized in 22 ICUs, using the Braden scale. Results showed that patients hospitalized from 15 days or more showed some level of risk. The highest frequencies of pressure ulcers were found in patients in the following categories: sensorial perception (completely limited), moistness (constantly moist), mobility (completely immobilized), activity (bedridden), nutrition (adequate) and friction and shear (problem). In conclusion, the use of this scale is an important strategy when providing care to patients in intensive treatment.

  3. Mental Models of Security Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asgharpour, Farzaneh; Liu, Debin; Camp, L. Jean

    In computer security, risk communication refers to informing computer users about the likelihood and magnitude of a threat. Efficacy of risk communication depends not only on the nature of the risk, but also on the alignment between the conceptual model embedded in the risk communication and the user's mental model of the risk. The gap between the mental models of security experts and non-experts could lead to ineffective risk communication. Our research shows that for a variety of the security risks self-identified security experts and non-experts have different mental models. We propose that the design of the risk communication methods should be based on the non-expert mental models.

  4. A Retrospective Analysis of Pressure Ulcer Incidence and Modified Braden Scale Score Risk Classifications.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

    2015-09-01

    The Braden Scale is the most widely used pressure ulcer risk assessment in the world, but the currently used 5 risk classification groups do not accurately discriminate among their risk categories. To optimize risk classification based on Braden Scale scores, a retrospective analysis of all consecutively admitted patients in an acute care facility who were at risk for pressure ulcer development was performed between January 2013 and December 2013. Predicted pressure ulcer incidence first was calculated by logistic regression model based on original Braden score. Risk classification then was modified based on the predicted pressure ulcer incidence and compared between different risk categories in the modified (3-group) classification and the traditional (5-group) classification using chi-square test. Two thousand, six hundred, twenty-five (2,625) patients (mean age 59.8 ± 16.5, range 1 month to 98 years, 1,601 of whom were men) were included in the study; 81 patients (3.1%) developed a pressure ulcer. The predicted pressure ulcer incidence ranged from 0.1% to 49.7%. When the predicted pressure ulcer incidence was greater than 10.0% (high risk), the corresponding Braden scores were less than 11; when the predicted incidence ranged from 1.0% to 10.0% (moderate risk), the corresponding Braden scores ranged from 12 to 16; and when the predicted incidence was less than 1.0% (mild risk), the corresponding Braden scores were greater than 17. In the modified classification, observed pressure ulcer incidence was significantly different between each of the 3 risk categories (P less than 0.05). However, in the traditional classification, the observed incidence was not significantly different between the high-risk category and moderate-risk category (P less than 0.05) and between the mild-risk category and no-risk category (P less than 0.05). If future studies confirm the validity of these findings, pressure ulcer prevention protocols of care based on Braden Scale scores can

  5. Blood pressure response to heart rate during exercise test and risk of future hypertension.

    PubMed

    Miyai, Nobuyuki; Arita, Mikio; Miyashita, Kazuhisa; Morioka, Ikuharu; Shiraishi, Tatsuo; Nishio, Ichiro

    2002-03-01

    Previous works have shown that exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise is a valid risk marker for future hypertension, yet the use of an exercise test as a means of early prediction of hypertension still requires methodological development and confirmation. The purpose of this study was to determine abnormal ranges of blood pressure responses in relation to heart rate increase during exercise and to examine the clinical utility of exercise blood pressure measurement in evaluating individual risk for developing hypertension. We examined exercise test data from a population-based sample of 1033 nonmedicated normotensive men (mean age, 42.9+/-8.5 years; range, 20 to 59 years). Percentile curves of systolic and diastolic blood pressure responses to relative heart rate increments during submaximal exercise were constructed using a third-order polynomial model with multiple regression analysis. Of the original study sample, a cohort of 726 subjects was followed for hypertensive outcome for an average period of 4.7 years. Progression to hypertension, defined as a blood pressure of > or =140/90 mm Hg or the initiation of antihypertensive therapy, was found in 114 subjects (15.4%). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates showed that the cumulative incidence of hypertension increased progressively with higher percentiles of systolic and diastolic blood pressure response (both, P<0.01). A Cox proportional survival analysis revealed a significantly increased risk for developing hypertension associated with exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise after multivariable adjustments for traditional risk factors (relative risk, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.3 to 6.1). These results suggest that an exaggerated blood pressure response to heart rate during exercise is predictive of future hypertension independent of other important risk factors and lend further support to the concept that blood pressure measurement during exercise test is a valuable means of identifying

  6. Risk Associated with Pulse Pressure on Out-of-Office Blood Pressure Measurement

    PubMed Central

    Gu, Yu-Mei; Aparicio, Lucas S.; Liu, Yan-Ping; Asayama, Kei; Hansen, Tine W.; Niiranen, Teemu J.; Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Staessen, Jan A.

    2014-01-01

    Background Longitudinal studies have demonstrated that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases with pulse pressure (PP). However, PP remains an elusive cardiovascular risk factor with findings being inconsistent between studies. The 2013 ESH/ESC guideline proposed that PP is useful in stratification and suggested a threshold of 60 mm Hg, which is 10 mm Hg higher compared to that in the 2007 guideline; however, no justification for this increase was provided. Methodology Published thresholds of PP are based on office blood pressure measurement and often on arbitrary categorical analyses. In the International Database on Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO) and the International Database on HOme blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome (IDHOCO), we determined outcome-driven thresholds for PP based on ambulatory or home blood pressure measurement, respectively. Results The main findings were that for people aged <60 years, PP did not refine risk stratification, whereas in older people the thresholds were 64 and 76 mm Hg for the ambulatory and home PP, respectively. However, PP provided little added predictive value over and beyond classical risk factors. PMID:26587443

  7. Modeling Scala Media as a Pressure Vessel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lepage, Eric; Olofsson, A.˚Ke

    2011-11-01

    The clinical condition known as endolymphatic hydrops is the swelling of scala media and may result in loss in hearing sensitivity consistent with other forms of low-frequency biasing. Because outer hair cells (OHCs) are displacement-sensitive and hearing levels tend to be preserved despite large changes in blood pressure and CSF pressure, it seems unlikely that the OHC respond passively to changes in static pressures in the chambers. This suggests the operation of a major feedback control loop which jointly regulates homeostasis and hearing sensitivity. Therefore the internal forces affecting the cochlear signal processing amplifier cannot be just motile responses. A complete account of the cochlear amplifier must include static pressures. To this end we have added a third, pressure vessel to our 1-D 140-segment, wave-digital filter active model of cochlear mechanics, incorporating the usual nonlinear forward transduction. In each segment the instantaneous pressure is the sum of acoustic pressure and global static pressure. The object of the model is to maintain stable OHC operating point despite any global rise in pressure in the third chamber. Such accumulated pressure is allowed to dissipate exponentially. In this first 3-chamber implementation we explore the possibility that acoustic pressures are rectified. The behavior of the model is critically dependent upon scaling factors and time-constants, yet by initial assumption, the pressure tends to accumulate in proportion to sound level. We further explore setting of the control parameters so that the accumulated pressure either stays within limits or may rise without bound.

  8. Fiber bundle model under fluid pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amitrano, David; Girard, Lucas

    2016-03-01

    Internal fluid pressure often plays an important role in the rupture of brittle materials. This is a major concern for many engineering applications and for natural hazards. More specifically, the mechanisms through which fluid pressure, applied at a microscale, can enhance the failure at a macroscale and accelerate damage dynamics leading to failure remains unclear. Here we revisit the fiber bundle model by accounting for the effect of fluid under pressure that contributes to the global load supported by the fiber bundle. Fluid pressure is applied on the broken fibers, following Biot's theory. The statistical properties of damage avalanches and their evolution toward macrofailure are analyzed for a wide range of fluid pressures. The macroscopic strength of the new model appears to be strongly controlled by the action of the fluid, particularly when the fluid pressure becomes comparable with the fiber strength. The behavior remains consistent with continuous transition, i.e., second order, including for large pressure. The main change concerns the damage acceleration toward the failure that is well modeled by the concept of sweeping of an instability. When pressure is increased, the exponent β characterizing the power-law distribution avalanche sizes significantly decreases and the exponent γ characterizing the cutoff divergence when failure is approached significantly increases. This proves that fluid pressure plays a key role in failure process acting as destabilization factor. This indicates that macrofailure occurs more readily under fluid pressure, with a behavior that becomes progressively unstable as fluid pressure increases. This may have considerable consequences on our ability to forecast failure when fluid pressure is acting.

  9. Fiber bundle model under fluid pressure.

    PubMed

    Amitrano, David; Girard, Lucas

    2016-03-01

    Internal fluid pressure often plays an important role in the rupture of brittle materials. This is a major concern for many engineering applications and for natural hazards. More specifically, the mechanisms through which fluid pressure, applied at a microscale, can enhance the failure at a macroscale and accelerate damage dynamics leading to failure remains unclear. Here we revisit the fiber bundle model by accounting for the effect of fluid under pressure that contributes to the global load supported by the fiber bundle. Fluid pressure is applied on the broken fibers, following Biot's theory. The statistical properties of damage avalanches and their evolution toward macrofailure are analyzed for a wide range of fluid pressures. The macroscopic strength of the new model appears to be strongly controlled by the action of the fluid, particularly when the fluid pressure becomes comparable with the fiber strength. The behavior remains consistent with continuous transition, i.e., second order, including for large pressure. The main change concerns the damage acceleration toward the failure that is well modeled by the concept of sweeping of an instability. When pressure is increased, the exponent β characterizing the power-law distribution avalanche sizes significantly decreases and the exponent γ characterizing the cutoff divergence when failure is approached significantly increases. This proves that fluid pressure plays a key role in failure process acting as destabilization factor. This indicates that macrofailure occurs more readily under fluid pressure, with a behavior that becomes progressively unstable as fluid pressure increases. This may have considerable consequences on our ability to forecast failure when fluid pressure is acting. PMID:27078437

  10. Biomechanical modelling of normal pressure hydrocephalus.

    PubMed

    Dutta-Roy, Tonmoy; Wittek, Adam; Miller, Karol

    2008-07-19

    This study investigates the mechanics of normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) growth using a computational approach. We created a generic 3-D brain mesh of a healthy human brain and modelled the brain parenchyma as single phase and biphasic continuum. In our model, hyperelastic constitutive law and finite deformation theory described deformations within the brain parenchyma. We used a value of 155.77Pa for the shear modulus (mu) of the brain parenchyma. Additionally, in our model, contact boundary definitions constrained the brain outer surface inside the skull. We used transmantle pressure difference to load the model. Fully nonlinear, implicit finite element procedures in the time domain were used to obtain the deformations of the ventricles and the brain. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first 3-D, fully nonlinear model investigating NPH growth mechanics. Clinicians generally accept that at most 1mm of Hg transmantle pressure difference (133.416Pa) is associated with the condition of NPH. Our computations showed that transmantle pressure difference of 1mm of Hg (133.416Pa) did not produce NPH for either single phase or biphasic model of the brain parenchyma. A minimum transmantle pressure difference of 1.764mm of Hg (235.44Pa) was required to produce the clinical condition of NPH. This suggested that the hypothesis of a purely mechanical basis for NPH growth needs to be revised. We also showed that under equal transmantle pressure difference load, there were no significant differences between the computed ventricular volumes for biphasic and incompressible/nearly incompressible single phase model of the brain parenchyma. As a result, there was no major advantage gained by using a biphasic model for the brain parenchyma. We propose that for modelling NPH, nearly incompressible single phase model of the brain parenchyma was adequate. Single phase treatment of the brain parenchyma simplified the mathematical description of the NPH model and resulted in

  11. Cardiac risk factors: new cholesterol and blood pressure management guidelines.

    PubMed

    Anthony, David; George, Paul; Eaton, Charles B

    2014-06-01

    The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines depart from low-density lipoprotein (LDL) treatment targets and recommend treating four specific patient groups with statins. Statins are the only cholesterol-lowering drugs with randomized trial evidence of benefit for preventing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The groups are patients with clinical ASCVD; patients ages 40 to 75 years with diabetes and LDL of 70 to 189 mg/dL but no clinical ASCVD; patients 21 years or older with LDL levels of 190 mg/dL or higher; and patients ages 40 to 75 years with LDL of 70 to 189 mg/dL without clinical ASCVD or diabetes but with 10-year ASCVD risk of 7.5% or higher. Ten-year ASCVD risk may be calculated using the Pooled Cohort Equations. The Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8) guidelines for blood pressure management recommend a blood pressure goal of less than 140/90 mm Hg for all adults except those 60 years or older. For the latter group, the JNC 8 recommends a systolic blood pressure goal of less than 150 mm Hg. In another notable change from prior guidelines, the JNC 8 recommends relaxing the systolic blood pressure goal for patients with diabetes and chronic kidney disease to less than 140 mm Hg from less than 130 mm Hg. PMID:24936717

  12. RISK 0301 - MOLECULAR MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk assessment practices, in general, for a range of diseases now encourages the use of mechanistic data to enhance the ability to predict responses at low, environmental exposures. In particular, the pathway from normal biology to pathologic state can be dcscribed by a set of m...

  13. Concordance of Shape Risk Scale, a new pressure ulcer risk tool, with Braden Scale.

    PubMed

    Soppi, Esa T; Iivanainen, Ansa K; Korhonen, Pasi A

    2014-12-01

    The occurrence of pressure ulcers was examined in a cross-sectional study in 23 health care facilities and in home care involving 548 patients. The screening of pressure ulcer risk was assessed simultaneously using the Braden Scale and the new Shape Risk Scale (SRS), and the results were compared. The overall prevalence of pressure ulcers in the study population was 15·5% (85/548). The Braden Scale was performed as described in the literature. The direct concordance of the Braden and SRS scales was 46%. In more than 90% of cases, the SRS classified patients as well as or better than the Braden Scale. The SRS allocates patients significantly different from the Braden Scale into the risk categories, especially the difference is significant between the low and medium-risk categories. The greatest advantage of SRS to Braden Scale is that it correctly identifies patients with low risk of pressure ulcers. It is interesting that the two risk scores, taking into consideration the basically different pathophysiological factors, can still give rather similar results. The users considered that both scales are easy to use.

  14. Combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls and non-chemical risk factors on blood pressure in NHANES

    SciTech Connect

    Peters, Junenette L. Patricia Fabian, M. Levy, Jonathan I.

    2014-07-15

    High blood pressure is associated with exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical risk factors, but epidemiological analyses to date have not assessed the combined effects of both chemical and non-chemical stressors on human populations in the context of cumulative risk assessment. We developed a novel modeling approach to evaluate the combined impact of lead, cadmium, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and multiple non-chemical risk factors on four blood pressure measures using data for adults aged ≥20 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999–2008). We developed predictive models for chemical and other stressors. Structural equation models were applied to account for complex associations among predictors of stressors as well as blood pressure. Models showed that blood lead, serum PCBs, and established non-chemical stressors were significantly associated with blood pressure. Lead was the chemical stressor most predictive of diastolic blood pressure and mean arterial pressure, while PCBs had a greater influence on systolic blood pressure and pulse pressure, and blood cadmium was not a significant predictor of blood pressure. The simultaneously fit exposure models explained 34%, 43% and 52% of the variance for lead, cadmium and PCBs, respectively. The structural equation models were developed using predictors available from public data streams (e.g., U.S. Census), which would allow the models to be applied to any U.S. population exposed to these multiple stressors in order to identify high risk subpopulations, direct intervention strategies, and inform public policy. - Highlights: • We evaluated joint impact of chemical and non-chemical stressors on blood pressure. • We built predictive models for lead, cadmium and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). • Our approach allows joint evaluation of predictors from population-specific data. • Lead, PCBs and established non-chemical stressors were related to blood pressure.

  15. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-09-01

    Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

  7. Association of blood pressure and hypertension with the risk of Parkinson disease: the National FINRISK Study.

    PubMed

    Qiu, Chengxuan; Hu, Gang; Kivipelto, Miia; Laatikainen, Tiina; Antikainen, Riitta; Fratiglioni, Laura; Jousilahti, Pekka; Tuomilehto, Jaakko

    2011-06-01

    Cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes mellitus and central obesity, have been associated with Parkinson disease (PD), but data on blood pressure and PD are lacking. We sought to examine the association of blood pressure and hypertension with the risk of PD among men and women. This study consisted of 7 surveys (1972-2002) on representative samples of the general population in Finland (National FINRISK Study). A total number of 59 540 participants (age 25 to 74 years; 51.8% women) who were free of PD and stroke at baseline were prospectively followed until December 31, 2006, to identify incident PD cases using the National Social Insurance Register database. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to estimate the hazard ratio of PD associated with blood pressure. During a mean follow-up period of 18.8 years (SD: 10.2 years), 423 men and 371 women were ascertained to have developed PD. In women, compared with normotensive subjects (<130/80 mm Hg), the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of PD associated with high-normal blood pressure (130 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg) and hypertension (≥140/90 mm Hg or use of antihypertensive agents) were 1.63 (95% CI: 1.07 to 2.47) and 1.62 (95% CI: 1.09 to 2.42). There was no significant association between blood pressure and PD risk in men. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios of PD associated with use of antihypertensive agents were 1.08 (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.48) in men and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.76 to 1.38) in women. This study suggests that, in women, above-optimal blood pressure, including high-normal blood pressure and hypertension, is associated with an increased risk of PD. Optimal control of blood pressure in women may reduce the incidence of PD.

  8. Managing exploration risk using basin modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wendebourg, J. )

    1996-01-01

    Economic risk analysis requires a well's dry-hole probability and a probability distribution of type and volume of recoverable hydrocarbons. Today's world-wide exploration needs methods that can accommodate a wide variety of data quality and quantity. Monte Carlo methods are commonly used to compute volume distributions and dry hole probability by multiplying Probabilities of geologic risk factors such as source rock richness, migration loss, seal effectiveness etc. assuming that these are independent Parameters. This assumption however is not appropriate because they represent interdependent physical processes that should be treated by an integrated system. Basin modeling is a tool for assessing exploration risk by simulating the interdependent processes that lead to hydrocarbon accumulations. advanced 2-D and 3-D basin modeling can treat occurrence, type, and volumes of hydrocarbons. These models need many parameters that individually may have great uncertainties, but a calibration against available data may reduce their uncertainties significantly and therefore may quantify risk. Uncertainty of thermal and source rock parameters is evaluated by applying simple and fast 1-D tools to individual wells. Calibration of pressure and temperature data as well as occurrence and type of known hydrocarbon accumulations with 2-D tools evaluates uncertainty between wells along geologic cross-sections. Individual prospect risk is finally determined by the uncertainty of local parameters within the calibrated model, as for example seal effectiveness or fault permeability.

  9. Managing exploration risk using basin modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wendebourg, J.

    1996-12-31

    Economic risk analysis requires a well`s dry-hole probability and a probability distribution of type and volume of recoverable hydrocarbons. Today`s world-wide exploration needs methods that can accommodate a wide variety of data quality and quantity. Monte Carlo methods are commonly used to compute volume distributions and dry hole probability by multiplying Probabilities of geologic risk factors such as source rock richness, migration loss, seal effectiveness etc. assuming that these are independent Parameters. This assumption however is not appropriate because they represent interdependent physical processes that should be treated by an integrated system. Basin modeling is a tool for assessing exploration risk by simulating the interdependent processes that lead to hydrocarbon accumulations. advanced 2-D and 3-D basin modeling can treat occurrence, type, and volumes of hydrocarbons. These models need many parameters that individually may have great uncertainties, but a calibration against available data may reduce their uncertainties significantly and therefore may quantify risk. Uncertainty of thermal and source rock parameters is evaluated by applying simple and fast 1-D tools to individual wells. Calibration of pressure and temperature data as well as occurrence and type of known hydrocarbon accumulations with 2-D tools evaluates uncertainty between wells along geologic cross-sections. Individual prospect risk is finally determined by the uncertainty of local parameters within the calibrated model, as for example seal effectiveness or fault permeability.

  10. Home Blood Pressure Variability as Cardiovascular Risk Factor in the Population of Ohasama

    PubMed Central

    Asayama, Kei; Kikuya, Masahiro; Schutte, Rudolph; Thijs, Lutgarde; Hosaka, Miki; Satoh, Michihiro; Hara, Azusa; Obara, Taku; Inoue, Ryusuke; Metoki, Hirohito; Hirose, Takuo; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Staessen, Jan A.; Imai, Yutaka

    2013-01-01

    Blood pressure variability based on office measurement predicts outcome in selected patients. We explored whether novel indices of blood pressure variability derived from the self-measured home blood pressure predicted outcome in a general population. We monitored mortality and stroke in 2421 Ohasama residents (Iwate Prefecture, Japan). At enrollment (1988–1995), participants (mean age, 58.6 years; 60.9% women; 27.1% treated) measured their blood pressure at home, using an oscillometric device. In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, we assessed the independent predictive value of the within-subject mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and corresponding variability as estimated by variability independent of the mean, difference between maximum and minimum blood pressure, and average real variability. Over 12.0 years (median), 412 participants died, 139 of cardiovascular causes, and 223 had a stroke. In models including morning SBP, variability independent of the mean and average real variability (median, 26 readings) predicted total and cardiovascular mortality in all of the participants (P≤0.044); variability independent of the mean predicted cardiovascular mortality in treated (P=0.014) but not in untreated (P=0.23) participants; and morning maximum and minimum blood pressure did not predict any end point (P≥0.085). In models already including evening SBP, only variability independent of the mean predicted cardiovascular mortality in all and in untreated participants (P≤0.046). The R2 statistics, a measure for the incremental risk explained by adding blood pressure variability to models already including SBP and covariables, ranged from <0.01% to 0.88%. In a general population, new indices of blood pressure variability derived from home blood pressure did not incrementally predict outcome over and beyond mean SBP. PMID:23172933

  11. [Using the 'Driving Force - Pressure - State - Exposure - Effects - Action' (DPSEEA) model of the World Health Organization (WHO) for the analysis of risks related to the use of pesticides in agricultural activities in the state of Rio de Janeiro].

    PubMed

    Araújo-Pinto, Mariana de; Peres, Frederico; Moreira, Josino Costa

    2012-06-01

    This paper seeks to apply the DPSEEA model (WHO) to identify major health risks to rural workers and the environment associated with the intensive use of pesticides in the State of Rio de Janeiro, based on an analysis of official public documents and a review of the (national and international) literature. It emphasizes the two main representative branches of agriculture in the state: family farming in the mountain region and the monoculture of sugarcane in the flatlands. Results show that the bulk of the determinants identified in the DPSEEA Matrix are related to deficiencies in actions for monitoring and surveillance of pesticide use, as well as a lack of technical assistance provided by the Public Sector in Rio de Janeiro State. Most of the actions developed in the state address the effects of pesticide exposure and, to a lesser extent, exposure to these chemicals, failing to focus on the higher levels of the matrix (such as driving forces and pressure). These are considered, by several authors, as the most appropriate when tackling the complex and systemic issues, such as the scope of this paper. By means of this study, an attempt was made to enable the application of the DPSEEA Model to assist in environmental and occupational health surveillance initiatives.

  12. Modeling steam pressure under martian lava flows

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dundas, Colin M.; Keszthelyi, Laszlo P.

    2013-01-01

    Rootless cones on Mars are a valuable indicator of past interactions between lava and water. However, the details of the lava–water interactions are not fully understood, limiting the ability to use these features to infer new information about past water on Mars. We have developed a model for the pressurization of a dry layer of porous regolith by melting and boiling ground ice in the shallow subsurface. This model builds on previous models of lava cooling and melting of subsurface ice. We find that for reasonable regolith properties and ice depths of decimeters, explosive pressures can be reached. However, the energy stored within such lags is insufficient to excavate thick flows unless they draw steam from a broader region than the local eruption site. These results indicate that lag pressurization can drive rootless cone formation under favorable circumstances, but in other instances molten fuel–coolant interactions are probably required. We use the model results to consider a range of scenarios for rootless cone formation in Athabasca Valles. Pressure buildup by melting and boiling ice under a desiccated lag is possible in some locations, consistent with the expected distribution of ice implanted from atmospheric water vapor. However, it is uncertain whether such ice has existed in the vicinity of Athabasca Valles in recent history. Plausible alternative sources include surface snow or an aqueous flood shortly before the emplacement of the lava flow.

  13. Multifractal Value at Risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hojin; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

    2016-06-01

    In this paper new Value at Risk (VaR) model is proposed and investigated. We consider the multifractal property of financial time series and develop a multifractal Value at Risk (MFVaR). MFVaR introduced in this paper is analytically tractable and not based on simulation. Empirical study showed that MFVaR can provide the more stable and accurate forecasting performance in volatile financial markets where large loss can be incurred. This implies that our multifractal VaR works well for the risk measurement of extreme credit events.

  14. Low surface pressure models for Titan's atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caldwell, J.

    1978-01-01

    The inversion model for the atmosphere of Titan is reviewed. The basic features of the model are: a cold surface (80 K), a warm stratosphere (160 K) and a low surface pressure (20 mbar). The model is consistent with all existing thermal infrared spectrophotometry, but it cannot preclude the existence of an opaque, cloud, thick atmosphere. The model excludes other gases than methane as bulk constituents. Radio wavelengths observations, including recent data from the very large array, are discussed. These long wavelength observations may be the only direct means of sampling the surface environment before an entry probe or flyby.

  15. Cabin Environment Physics Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Mathias, Donovan Leigh

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a Cabin Environment Physics Risk (CEPR) model that predicts the time for an initial failure of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) functionality to propagate into a hazardous environment and trigger a loss-of-crew (LOC) event. This physics-of failure model allows a probabilistic risk assessment of a crewed spacecraft to account for the cabin environment, which can serve as a buffer to protect the crew during an abort from orbit and ultimately enable a safe return. The results of the CEPR model replace the assumption that failure of the crew critical ECLSS functionality causes LOC instantly, and provide a more accurate representation of the spacecraft's risk posture. The instant-LOC assumption is shown to be excessively conservative and, moreover, can impact the relative risk drivers identified for the spacecraft. This, in turn, could lead the design team to allocate mass for equipment to reduce overly conservative risk estimates in a suboptimal configuration, which inherently increases the overall risk to the crew. For example, available mass could be poorly used to add redundant ECLSS components that have a negligible benefit but appear to make the vehicle safer due to poor assumptions about the propagation time of ECLSS failures.

  16. Information risk and security modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  17. The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk.

    PubMed

    Bergstrom, N; Braden, B J; Laguzza, A; Holman, V

    1987-01-01

    The Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk was developed to foster early identification of patients at risk for forming pressure sores. The scale is composed of six subscales that reflect sensory perception, skin moisture, activity, mobility, friction and shear, and nutritional status. Content and construct validity were established by expert opinion and empirical testing. Three studies of reliability are reported here, using raters who varied in level of educational preparation and geographic region. Two prospective studies of predictive validity were completed to determine the scale's sensitivity and specificity. Reliability ranged from r = .83 to r = .94 for nurses' aides and licensed practical nurses; when used by registered nurses, the reliability increased to r = .99. Predictive validity was calculated for each cut-off point of the scale. Using a cut-off point of 16, sensitivity was 100% in both studies. Specificity ranged from 64% to 90%. This instrument has highly satisfactory reliability when used by RNs, and greater sensitivity and specificity than instruments previously reported.

  18. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  19. The potential for health risks from intrusion of contaminants into the distribution system from pressure transients.

    PubMed

    LeChevallier, Mark W; Gullick, Richard W; Karim, Mohammad R; Friedman, Melinda; Funk, James E

    2003-03-01

    The potential for public health risks associated with intrusion of contaminants into water supply distribution systems resulting from transient low or negative pressures is assessed. It is shown that transient pressure events occur in distribution systems; that during these negative pressure events pipeline leaks provide a potential portal for entry of groundwater into treated drinking water; and that faecal indicators and culturable human viruses are present in the soil and water exterior to the distribution system. To date, all observed negative pressure events have been related to power outages or other pump shutdowns. Although there are insufficient data to indicate whether pressure transients are a substantial source of risk to water quality in the distribution system, mitigation techniques can be implemented, principally the maintenance of an effective disinfectant residual throughout the distribution system, leak control, redesign of air relief venting, and more rigorous application of existing engineering standards. Use of high-speed pressure data loggers and surge modelling may have some merit, but more research is needed. PMID:15384268

  20. Using conditional tree forests and life history traits to assess specific risks of stream degradation under multiple pressure scenario.

    PubMed

    Mondy, Cédric P; Usseglio-Polatera, Philippe

    2013-09-01

    The full accomplishment of the European Water Framework Directive objectives has required from EU members three successive steps: (i) the evaluation of their water body ecological status, (ii) the risk assessment of different anthropogenic pressure categories and (iii) the implementation of appropriate management and restoration programs. We aimed at designing an innovative retrospective ecological risk assessment (ERA) tool working for most of the French wadeable rivers in a context of multiple anthropogenic pressures (step ii). This tool, including conditional tree forest (CTF) models, was built on combinations of benthic macroinvertebrate trait-based metrics for each of sixteen anthropogenic pressure categories. For eleven pressure categories, CTF models have given good impairment risk assessment (i.e. AUC≥0.70), even at moderate risk level and in a multi-pressure context. The four other models have provided poorer but promising results (AUC=0.67±0.02). Identifying the potential weight of individual anthropogenic pressures that lead to biotic assemblage impairment in streams under multiple pressure scenario, is a key step for managers to implement appropriate stream restoration programs. Simultaneously considering the whole complexity of bio-ecological adaptations within biotic assemblages subjected to human pressures provides a functional diagnostic tool both (i) ecologically relevant and (ii) efficient for ERA.

  1. Analytic Modeling of Pressurization and Cryogenic Propellant

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Corpening, Jeremy H.

    2010-01-01

    An analytic model for pressurization and cryogenic propellant conditions during all mission phases of any liquid rocket based vehicle has been developed and validated. The model assumes the propellant tanks to be divided into five nodes and also implements an empirical correlation for liquid stratification if desired. The five nodes include a tank wall node exposed to ullage gas, an ullage gas node, a saturated propellant vapor node at the liquid-vapor interface, a liquid node, and a tank wall node exposed to liquid. The conservation equations of mass and energy are then applied across all the node boundaries and, with the use of perfect gas assumptions, explicit solutions for ullage and liquid conditions are derived. All fluid properties are updated real time using NIST Refprop.1 Further, mass transfer at the liquid-vapor interface is included in the form of evaporation, bulk boiling of liquid propellant, and condensation given the appropriate conditions for each. Model validation has proven highly successful against previous analytic models and various Saturn era test data and reasonably successful against more recent LH2 tank self pressurization ground test data. Finally, this model has been applied to numerous design iterations for the Altair Lunar Lander, Ares V Core Stage, and Ares V Earth Departure Stage in order to characterize Helium and autogenous pressurant requirements, propellant lost to evaporation and thermodynamic venting to maintain propellant conditions, and non-uniform tank draining in configurations utilizing multiple LH2 or LO2 propellant tanks. In conclusion, this model provides an accurate and efficient means of analyzing multiple design configurations for any cryogenic propellant tank in launch, low-acceleration coast, or in-space maneuvering and supplies the user with pressurization requirements, unusable propellants from evaporation and liquid stratification, and general ullage gas, liquid, and tank wall conditions as functions of time.

  2. Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mattenberger, Chris; Putney, Blake; Rust, Randy; Derkowski, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Characterizing the risk of spacecraft goes beyond simply modeling equipment reliability. Some portions of the mission require complex interactions between system elements that can lead to failure without an actual hardware fault. Landing risk is currently the least characterized aspect of the Altair lunar lander and appears to result from complex temporal interactions between pilot, sensors, surface characteristics and vehicle capabilities rather than hardware failures. The Lunar Landing Operational Risk Model (LLORM) seeks to provide rapid and flexible quantitative insight into the risks driving the landing event and to gauge sensitivities of the vehicle to changes in system configuration and mission operations. The LLORM takes a Monte Carlo based approach to estimate the operational risk of the Lunar Landing Event and calculates estimates of the risk of Loss of Mission (LOM) - Abort Required and is Successful, Loss of Crew (LOC) - Vehicle Crashes or Cannot Reach Orbit, and Success. The LLORM is meant to be used during the conceptual design phase to inform decision makers transparently of the reliability impacts of design decisions, to identify areas of the design which may require additional robustness, and to aid in the development and flow-down of requirements.

  3. Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

  4. Biomechanical modeling to prevent ischial pressure ulcers.

    PubMed

    Luboz, Vincent; Petrizelli, Marion; Bucki, Marek; Diot, Bruno; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Payan, Yohan

    2014-07-18

    With 300,000 paraplegic persons only in France, ischial pressure ulcers represent a major public health issue. They result from the buttocks׳ soft tissues compression by the bony prominences. Unfortunately, the current clinical techniques, with - in the best case - embedded pressure sensor mats, are insufficient to prevent them because most are due to high internal strains which can occur even with low pressures at the skin surface. Therefore, improving prevention requires using a biomechanical model to estimate internal strains from skin surface pressures. However, the buttocks׳ soft tissues׳ stiffness is still unknown. This paper provides a stiffness sensitivity analysis using a finite element model. Different layers with distinct Neo Hookean materials simulate the skin, fat and muscles. With Young moduli in the range [100-500 kPa], [25-35 kPa], and [80-140 kPa] for the skin, fat, and muscles, respectively, maximum internal strains reach realistic 50 to 60% values. The fat and muscle stiffnesses have an important influence on the strain variations, while skin stiffness is less influent. Simulating different sitting postures and changing the muscle thickness also result in a variation in the internal strains.

  5. Biomechanical modeling to prevent ischial pressure ulcers.

    PubMed

    Luboz, Vincent; Petrizelli, Marion; Bucki, Marek; Diot, Bruno; Vuillerme, Nicolas; Payan, Yohan

    2014-07-18

    With 300,000 paraplegic persons only in France, ischial pressure ulcers represent a major public health issue. They result from the buttocks׳ soft tissues compression by the bony prominences. Unfortunately, the current clinical techniques, with - in the best case - embedded pressure sensor mats, are insufficient to prevent them because most are due to high internal strains which can occur even with low pressures at the skin surface. Therefore, improving prevention requires using a biomechanical model to estimate internal strains from skin surface pressures. However, the buttocks׳ soft tissues׳ stiffness is still unknown. This paper provides a stiffness sensitivity analysis using a finite element model. Different layers with distinct Neo Hookean materials simulate the skin, fat and muscles. With Young moduli in the range [100-500 kPa], [25-35 kPa], and [80-140 kPa] for the skin, fat, and muscles, respectively, maximum internal strains reach realistic 50 to 60% values. The fat and muscle stiffnesses have an important influence on the strain variations, while skin stiffness is less influent. Simulating different sitting postures and changing the muscle thickness also result in a variation in the internal strains. PMID:24873863

  6. A Corrosion Risk Assessment Model for Underground Piping

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Datta, Koushik; Fraser, Douglas R.

    2009-01-01

    The Pressure Systems Manager at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) has embarked on a project to collect data and develop risk assessment models to support risk-informed decision making regarding future inspections of underground pipes at ARC. This paper shows progress in one area of this project - a corrosion risk assessment model for the underground high-pressure air distribution piping system at ARC. It consists of a Corrosion Model of pipe-segments, a Pipe Wrap Protection Model; and a Pipe Stress Model for a pipe segment. A Monte Carlo simulation of the combined models provides a distribution of the failure probabilities. Sensitivity study results show that the model uncertainty, or lack of knowledge, is the dominant contributor to the calculated unreliability of the underground piping system. As a result, the Pressure Systems Manager may consider investing resources specifically focused on reducing these uncertainties. Future work includes completing the data collection effort for the existing ground based pressure systems and applying the risk models to risk-based inspection strategies of the underground pipes at ARC.

  7. Ecological risk assessment of water environment for Luanhe River Basin based on relative risk model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jingling; Chen, Qiuying; Li, Yongli

    2010-11-01

    The relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional ecological risk assessments successfully. In this study, the RRM was developed through increasing the data of risk source and introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which include water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the ecological risk assessment endpoints. The Luanhe River Basin located in the North China was selected as model case. The results showed that there were three low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the Luanhe River Basin. The results also indicated habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores as high as 11.87 for the Luanhe water environment, the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (9.28) and the third was nutrients (7.78). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. Furthermore, animal husbandry was the biggest source with the risk scores as high as 20.38, the second was domestic sewage (14.00), and the third was polluting industry (9.96). For habitats, waters and farmland were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Water deterioration and ecological service values damaged were facing the biggest risk pressure, and secondly was biodiversity decreased and landscape fragmentation. PMID:20683654

  8. Risk factors for pressure ulcer development in institutionalized elderly.

    PubMed

    de Souza, Diba Maria Sebba Tosta; Santos, Vera Lúcia Conceição de Gouveia

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed to analyze the risk factors for the development of Pressure Ulcers (PU) in old people living in Long Staying Institutions. It is a prospective and cohort study carried out in four Institutions. A total of 94 old people composed the sample and were assessed during three consecutive months. The total scores of the Braden Scale were different between the groups with and without PU, at the first (p=0.030) and last assessments (p=0.001); humidity, nutrition and friction/shearing were significantly different between those with and without PU, and were always worst among the first. Female gender and previous PU were confirmed as predictive for the development of PU (r(2)=0.311).

  9. Approach for Mitigating Pressure Garment Design Risks in a Mobile Lunar Surface Systems Architecture

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aitchison, Lindsay

    2009-01-01

    The stated goals of the 2004 Vision for Space Exploration focus on establishing a human presence throughout the solar system beginning with the establishment of a permanent human presence on the Moon. However, the precise objectives to be accomplished on the lunar surface and the optimal system architecture to achieve those objectives have been a topic of much debate since the inception of the Constellation Program. There are two basic styles of system architectures being traded at the Programmatic level: a traditional large outpost that would focus on techniques for survival off our home planet and a greater depth of exploration within one area, or a mobile approach- akin to a series of nomadic camps- that would allow greater breadth of exploration opportunities. The traditional outpost philosophy is well within the understood pressure garment design space with respect to developing interfaces and operational life cycle models. The mobile outpost, however, combines many unknowns with respect to pressure garment performance and reliability that could dramatically affect the cost and schedule risks associated with the Constellation space suit system. This paper provides an overview of the concepts being traded for a mobile architecture from the operations and hardware implementation perspective, describes the primary risks to the Constellation pressure garment associated with each of the concepts, and summarizes the approach necessary to quantify the pressure garment design risks to enable the Constellation Program to make informed decisions when deciding on an overall lunar surface systems architecture.

  10. Pressurization Risk Assessment of CO2 Reservoirs Utilizing Design of Experiments and Response Surface Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guyant, E.; Han, W. S.; Kim, K. Y.; Park, E.; Han, K.

    2015-12-01

    Monitoring of pressure buildup can provide explicit information on reservoir integrity and is an appealing tool, however pressure variation is dependent on a variety of factors causing high uncertainty in pressure predictions. This work evaluated pressurization of a reservoir system in the presence of leakage pathways as well as exploring the effects of compartmentalization of the reservoir utilizing design of experiments (Definitive Screening, Box Behnken, Central Composite, and Latin Hypercube designs) and response surface methods. Two models were developed, 1) an idealized injection scenario in order to evaluate the performance of multiple designs, and 2) a complex injection scenario implementing the best performing design to investigate pressurization of the reservoir system. A holistic evaluation of scenario 1, determined that the Central Composite design would be used for the complex injection scenario. The complex scenario evaluated 5 risk factors: reservoir, seal, leakage pathway and fault permeabilities, and horizontal position of the pathway. A total of 60 response surface models (RSM) were developed for the complex scenario with an average R2 of 0.95 and a NRMSE of 0.067. Sensitivity to the input factors was dynamic through space and time; at the earliest time (0.05 years) the reservoir permeability was dominant, and for later times (>0.5 years) the fault permeability became dominant for all locations. The RSM's were then used to conduct a Monte Carlo Analysis to further analyze pressurization risks, identifying the P10, P50, P90 values. This identified the in zone (lower) P90 values as 2.16, 1.77, and 1.53 MPa and above zone values of 1.35, 1.23, 1.09 MPa for monitoring locations 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In summary, the design of experiments and response surface methods allowed for an efficient sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to be conducted permitting a complete evaluation of the pressurization across the entire parameter space.

  11. Become the PPUPET Master: Mastering Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment With the Pediatric Pressure Ulcer Prediction and Evaluation Tool (PPUPET).

    PubMed

    Sterken, David J; Mooney, JoAnn; Ropele, Diana; Kett, Alysha; Vander Laan, Karen J

    2015-01-01

    Hospital acquired pressure ulcers (HAPU) are serious, debilitating, and preventable complications in all inpatient populations. Despite evidence of the development of pressure ulcers in the pediatric population, minimal research has been done. Based on observations gathered during quarterly HAPU audits, bedside nursing staff recognized trends in pressure ulcer locations that were not captured using current pressure ulcer risk assessment tools. Together, bedside nurses and nursing leadership created and conducted multiple research studies to investigate the validity and reliability of the Pediatric Pressure Ulcer Prediction and Evaluation Tool (PPUPET).

  12. A Quantitative Software Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Alice

    2002-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews a risk assessment model as applied to software development. the presentation uses graphs to demonstrate basic concepts of software reliability. It also discusses the application to the risk model to the software development life cycle.

  13. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins; John M. Beck

    2011-11-01

    The Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Risk Management System (RMS) is a database used to maintain the project risk register. The RMS also maps risk reduction activities to specific identified risks. Further functionality of the RMS includes mapping reactor suppliers Design Data Needs (DDNs) to risk reduction tasks and mapping Phenomena Identification Ranking Table (PIRTs) to associated risks. This document outlines the basic instructions on how to use the RMS. This document constitutes Revision 1 of the NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk. It incorporates the latest enhancements to the RMS. The enhancements include six new custom views of risk data - Impact/Consequence, Tasks by Project Phase, Tasks by Status, Tasks by Project Phase/Status, Tasks by Impact/WBS, and Tasks by Phase/Impact/WBS.

  14. Genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure increases risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xiangfeng; Huang, Jianfeng; Wang, Laiyuan; Chen, Shufeng; Yang, Xueli; Li, Jianxin; Cao, Jie; Chen, Jichun; Li, Ying; Zhao, Liancheng; Li, Hongfan; Liu, Fangcao; Huang, Chen; Shen, Chong; Shen, Jinjin; Yu, Ling; Xu, Lihua; Mu, Jianjun; Wu, Xianping; Ji, Xu; Guo, Dongshuang; Zhou, Zhengyuan; Yang, Zili; Wang, Renping; Yang, Jun; Yan, Weili; Gu, Dongfeng

    2015-10-01

    Although multiple genetic markers associated with blood pressure have been identified by genome-wide association studies, their aggregate effect on risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease is uncertain, particularly among East Asian who may have different genetic and environmental exposures from Europeans. We aimed to examine the association between genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease in 26 262 individuals in 2 Chinese population-based prospective cohorts. A genetic risk score was calculated based on 22 established variants for blood pressure in East Asian. We found the genetic risk score was significantly and independently associated with linear increases in blood pressure and risk of incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease (P range from 4.57×10(-3) to 3.10×10(-6)). In analyses adjusted for traditional risk factors including blood pressure, individuals carrying most blood pressure-related risk alleles (top quintile of genetic score distribution) had 40% (95% confidence interval, 18-66) and 26% (6-45) increased risk for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease, respectively, when compared with individuals in the bottom quintile. The genetic risk score also significantly improved discrimination for incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and led to modest improvements in risk reclassification for cardiovascular disease (all the P<0.05). Our data indicate that genetic predisposition to higher blood pressure is an independent risk factor for blood pressure increase and incident hypertension and cardiovascular disease and provides modest incremental information to cardiovascular disease risk prediction. The potential clinical use of this panel of blood pressure-associated polymorphisms remains to be determined.

  15. Fluid dynamic modelling of renal pelvic pressure during endoscopic stone removal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oratis, Alexandros; Subasic, John; Bird, James; Eisner, Brian

    2015-11-01

    Endoscopic kidney stone removal procedures are known to increase internal pressure in the renal pelvis, the kidney's urinary collecting system. High renal pelvic pressure incites systemic absorption of irrigation fluid, which can increase the risk of postoperative fever and sepsis or the unwanted absorption of electrolytes. Urologists choose the appropriate surgical procedure based on patient history and kidney stone size. However, no study has been conducted to compare the pressure profiles of each procedure, nor is there a precise sense of how the renal pelvic pressure scales with various operational parameters. Here we develop physical models for the flow rates and renal pelvic pressure for various procedures. We show that the results of our models are consistent with existing urological data on each procedure and that the models can predict pressure profiles where data is unavailable.

  16. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology

    PubMed Central

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M.; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring. PMID:24733953

  17. Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.

    PubMed

    Di Marco, Moreno; Buchanan, Graeme M; Szantoi, Zoltan; Holmgren, Milena; Grottolo Marasini, Gabriele; Gross, Dorit; Tranquilli, Sandra; Boitani, Luigi; Rondinini, Carlo

    2014-01-01

    Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.

  18. Predictive Validity of Pressure Ulcer Risk Assessment Tools for Elderly: A Meta-Analysis.

    PubMed

    Park, Seong-Hi; Lee, Young-Shin; Kwon, Young-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Preventing pressure ulcers is one of the most challenging goals existing for today's health care provider. Currently used tools which assess risk of pressure ulcer development rarely evaluate the accuracy of predictability, especially in older adults. The current study aimed at providing a systemic review and meta-analysis of 29 studies using three pressure ulcer risk assessment tools: Braden, Norton, and Waterlow Scales. Overall predictive validities of pressure ulcer risks in the pooled sensitivity and specificity indicated a similar range with a moderate accuracy level in all three scales, while heterogeneity showed more than 80% variability among studies. The studies applying the Braden Scale used five different cut-off points representing the primary cause of heterogeneity. Results indicate that commonly used screening tools for pressure ulcer risk have limitations regarding validity and accuracy for use with older adults due to heterogeneity among studies.

  19. Predictive capacity of risk assessment scales and clinical judgment for pressure ulcers: a meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    García-Fernández, Francisco Pedro; Pancorbo-Hidalgo, Pedro L; Agreda, J Javier Soldevilla

    2014-01-01

    A systematic review with meta-analysis was completed to determine the capacity of risk assessment scales and nurses' clinical judgment to predict pressure ulcer (PU) development. Electronic databases were searched for prospective studies on the validity and predictive capacity of PUs risk assessment scales published between 1962 and 2010 in English, Spanish, Portuguese, Korean, German, and Greek. We excluded gray literature sources, integrative review articles, and retrospective or cross-sectional studies. The methodological quality of the studies was assessed according to the guidelines of the Critical Appraisal Skills Program. Predictive capacity was measured as relative risk (RR) with 95% confidence intervals. When 2 or more valid original studies were found, a meta-analysis was conducted using a random-effect model and sensitivity analysis. We identified 57 studies, including 31 that included a validation study. We also retrieved 4 studies that tested clinical judgment as a risk prediction factor. Meta-analysis produced the following pooled predictive capacity indicators: Braden (RR = 4.26); Norton (RR = 3.69); Waterlow (RR = 2.66); Cubbin-Jackson (RR = 8.63); EMINA (RR = 6.17); Pressure Sore Predictor Scale (RR = 21.4); and clinical judgment (RR = 1.89). Pooled analysis of 11 studies found adequate risk prediction capacity in various clinical settings; the Braden, Norton, EMINA (mEntal state, Mobility, Incontinence, Nutrition, Activity), Waterlow, and Cubbin-Jackson scales showed the highest predictive capacity. The clinical judgment of nurses was found to achieve inadequate predictive capacity when used alone, and should be used in combination with a validated scale.

  20. Intraglottal velocity and pressure measurements in a hemilarynx model.

    PubMed

    Oren, Liran; Gutmark, Ephraim; Khosla, Sid

    2015-02-01

    Determining the mechanisms of self-sustained oscillation of the vocal folds requires characterization of the pressures produced by intraglottal aerodynamics. Because most of the intraglottal aerodynamic forces cannot be measured in a tissue model of the larynx, current understanding of vocal fold vibration mechanism is derived from mechanical, analytical, and computational models. Previous studies have computed intraglottal pressures from measured intraglottal velocity fields and intraglottal geometry; however, this technique for determining pressures is not yet validated. In this study, intraglottal pressure measurements taken in a hemilarynx model are compared with pressure values that are computed from simultaneous velocity measurements. The results showed that significant negative pressure formed near the superior aspect of the folds during closing, which agrees with previous measurements in other hemilarynx models. Intraglottal velocity measurements show that the flow near the superior aspect separates from the glottal wall during closing and may develop into a vortex, which further augments the magnitude of negative pressure. Intraglottal pressure distributions, computed by solving the pressure Poisson equation, showed good agreement with pressure measurements. The match between the pressure computations and its measurements validates the current technique, which was previously used to estimate intraglottal pressure distribution in a full larynx model. PMID:25698025

  1. Intraglottal velocity and pressure measurements in a hemilarynx model

    PubMed Central

    Oren, Liran; Gutmark, Ephraim; Khosla, Sid

    2015-01-01

    Determining the mechanisms of self-sustained oscillation of the vocal folds requires characterization of the pressures produced by intraglottal aerodynamics. Because most of the intraglottal aerodynamic forces cannot be measured in a tissue model of the larynx, current understanding of vocal fold vibration mechanism is derived from mechanical, analytical, and computational models. Previous studies have computed intraglottal pressures from measured intraglottal velocity fields and intraglottal geometry; however, this technique for determining pressures is not yet validated. In this study, intraglottal pressure measurements taken in a hemilarynx model are compared with pressure values that are computed from simultaneous velocity measurements. The results showed that significant negative pressure formed near the superior aspect of the folds during closing, which agrees with previous measurements in other hemilarynx models. Intraglottal velocity measurements show that the flow near the superior aspect separates from the glottal wall during closing and may develop into a vortex, which further augments the magnitude of negative pressure. Intraglottal pressure distributions, computed by solving the pressure Poisson equation, showed good agreement with pressure measurements. The match between the pressure computations and its measurements validates the current technique, which was previously used to estimate intraglottal pressure distribution in a full larynx model. PMID:25698025

  2. Intraoperative testing of opening and closing pressure predicts risk of low intraocular pressure after Ahmed glaucoma valve implantation

    PubMed Central

    Bochmann, F; Kipfer, A; Tarantino, J; Kaufmann, C; Bachmann, L; Thiel, M

    2014-01-01

    Purpose The aim of this study was to assess whether intraoperative testing of silicone Ahmed glaucoma valves (AGVs) would identify valves with an increased risk of low postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP). Methods In 30 consecutive cases of glaucoma surgery with AGV implantation, after priming the AGV, we intraoperatively measured the opening pressure A, closing pressure B, and re-opening pressure C using the active infusion pump of a phako-machine. IOP was checked postoperatively on the same day. Low IOP was defined as <5 mm Hg. Intraoperatively measured pressure characteristics of the valve function were analysed for their ability to predict postoperative IOP outcomes. Results Opening A, closing B, and re-opening C pressures (mean, (SD)) were 18.4 (5.1), 8.3 (4.7), and 11.7 (4.8)mm Hg, respectively. Ten patients (33.3%) had low IOP. An opening pressure of ≤18 mm Hg predicted low postoperative IOP with a sensitivity (10/10) of 100% (95% CI, 69.2–100) and a specificity (13/20) of 65.0% (95% CI, 40.8–84.6). Conclusions AGVs have a high variability of opening, closing, and re-opening pressures. An opening pressure of ≤18 mm Hg, a closing pressure of ≤10 mm Hg, or a re-opening pressure of ≤11 mm Hg identified all patients with low postoperative IOP. PMID:25060848

  3. A theoretical model to study melting of metals under pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kholiya, Kuldeep; Chandra, Jeewan

    2015-10-01

    On the basis of the thermal equation-of-state a simple theoretical model is developed to study the pressure dependence of melting temperature. The model is then applied to compute the high pressure melting curve of 10 metals (Cu, Mg, Pb, Al, In, Cd, Zn, Au, Ag and Mn). It is found that the melting temperature is not linear with pressure and the slope dTm/dP of the melting curve decreases continuously with the increase in pressure. The results obtained with the present model are also compared with the previous theoretical and experimental data. A good agreement between theoretical and experimental result supports the validity of the present model.

  4. Modeling Research Project Risks with Fuzzy Maps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bodea, Constanta Nicoleta; Dascalu, Mariana Iuliana

    2009-01-01

    The authors propose a risks evaluation model for research projects. The model is based on fuzzy inference. The knowledge base for fuzzy process is built with a causal and cognitive map of risks. The map was especially developed for research projects, taken into account their typical lifecycle. The model was applied to an e-testing research…

  5. Calculating osmotic pressure according to nonelectrolyte Wilson nonrandom factor model.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Zhan, Tingting; Zhan, Xiancheng; Wang, Xiaolan; Tan, Xiaoying; Guo, Yiping; Li, Chengrong

    2014-08-01

    Abstract The osmotic pressure of NaCl solutions was determined by the air humidity in equilibrium (AHE) method. The relationship between the osmotic pressure and the concentration was explored theoretically, and the osmotic pressure was calculated according to the nonelectrolyte Wilson nonrandom factor (N-Wilson-NRF) model from the concentration. The results indicate that the calculated osmotic pressure is comparable to the measured one.

  6. Risks assessment of water pollution by pesticides at local scale (PESTEAUX project): study of polluting pressure.

    PubMed

    Noel, Stéphanie; Billo Bah, Boubacar

    2009-01-01

    Pollution of water resources (surface waters and ground waters) by pesticide uses is one of the key point of the European policy with the implementation of the Water Frame Work Directive (2000/60/EC) and the thematic Strategy on the Sustainable use of pesticides. According to this legislation, the Member States must initiate measures to limit environmental and toxicological effects caused by pesticide uses. The Agricultural Research Centre of Wallonia (CRA-W) emphasized the need of a tool for spatial risk analysis and develOPs it within the framework of PESTEAUX project. The originality of the approach proposed by the CRA-W is to generate maps to identify the risk of pollution at locale scale (agricultural parcel). The risk will be assessed according to the study of different factors, grouped under 3 data's layers: polluting pressure, vulnerability of the physical environment (soil) and meteorological data. This approach is directly based on the risk's definition which takes into account the polluting pressure, linked to the human activities, and the vulnerability of the soil, defined by factors of physical environment which characterize the water flow in the parcel. Moreover, meteorological data influence the intensity and likelihood flow of water, and indirectly pesticide by leaching or runoff. The PESTEAUX's approach to study the pollution is based on the model "source-vector-target". The source is the polluting pressure, in other words, the pesticides which could reach the targets. The main vector is the water which vehicles the pesticide on and trough the soil until the target which are the surface waters or ground waters. In this paper we introduce the factors contributing to the polluting pressure. These factors are linking to the human activities and more precisely, to the pesticide uses. The factors considered have an influence on pesticide's transport by water (in its solid state or in dissolved state by leaching, run-off, or erosion) but also on a set of

  7. Relative risk regression models with inverse polynomials.

    PubMed

    Ning, Yang; Woodward, Mark

    2013-08-30

    The proportional hazards model assumes that the log hazard ratio is a linear function of parameters. In the current paper, we model the log relative risk as an inverse polynomial, which is particularly suitable for modeling bounded and asymmetric functions. The parameters estimated by maximizing the partial likelihood are consistent and asymptotically normal. The advantages of the inverse polynomial model over the ordinary polynomial model and the fractional polynomial model for fitting various asymmetric log relative risk functions are shown by simulation. The utility of the method is further supported by analyzing two real data sets, addressing the specific question of the location of the minimum risk threshold.

  8. Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schairer, Edward T.; Kushner, Laura Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

  9. A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function

    PubMed Central

    Xu, W. S.; Luo, P. Y.; Sun, L.; Lin, N.

    2016-01-01

    The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative. PMID:27603701

  10. A Prediction Model of the Capillary Pressure J-Function.

    PubMed

    Xu, W S; Luo, P Y; Sun, L; Lin, N

    2016-01-01

    The capillary pressure J-function is a dimensionless measure of the capillary pressure of a fluid in a porous medium. The function was derived based on a capillary bundle model. However, the dependence of the J-function on the saturation Sw is not well understood. A prediction model for it is presented based on capillary pressure model, and the J-function prediction model is a power function instead of an exponential or polynomial function. Relative permeability is calculated with the J-function prediction model, resulting in an easier calculation and results that are more representative. PMID:27603701

  11. Casting Stainless-Steel Models Around Pressure Tubes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vasquez, Peter; Micol, John R.

    1992-01-01

    Survivability of thin-wall stainless-steel tubing increased to nearly 100 percent. Improves state of art in pressure-model castings and reduces cost associated with machining complete model from stainless-steel blank.

  12. Canards in a rheodynamic model of cardiac pressure pulsations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Feng; Chen, Xian-Feng

    2007-09-01

    This paper reports on the canard phenomenon occurring in a rheodynamic model of cardiac pressure pulsations. By singular perturbation techniques the corresponding parameter value at which canards exist is obtained. The physiological significance of canards in this model is given.

  13. Requirements based system risk modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila; Cornford, Steven; Feather, Martin

    2004-01-01

    The problem that we address in this paper is assessing the expected degree of success of the system or mission based on the degree to which each requirement is satisfied and the relative weight of the requirements. We assume a complete list of the requirements, the relevant risk elements and their probability of occurrence and the quantified effect of the risk elements on the requirements. In order to assess the degree to which each requirement is satisfied, we need to determine the effect of the various risk elements on the requirement.

  14. Thermodynamic models for bounding pressurant mass requirements of cryogenic tanks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vandresar, Neil T.; Haberbusch, Mark S.

    1994-01-01

    Thermodynamic models have been formulated to predict lower and upper bounds for the mass of pressurant gas required to pressurize a cryogenic tank and then expel liquid from the tank. Limiting conditions are based on either thermal equilibrium or zero energy exchange between the pressurant gas and initial tank contents. The models are independent of gravity level and allow specification of autogenous or non-condensible pressurants. Partial liquid fill levels may be specified for initial and final conditions. Model predictions are shown to successfully bound results from limited normal-gravity tests with condensable and non-condensable pressurant gases. Representative maximum collapse factor maps are presented for liquid hydrogen to show the effects of initial and final fill level on the range of pressurant gas requirements. Maximum collapse factors occur for partial expulsions with large final liquid fill fractions.

  15. Modeling extreme risks in ecology.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark; Franklin, James; Hayes, Keith R; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Peters, Gareth W; Sisson, Scott A

    2012-11-01

    Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks.

  16. [The role of nursing documentation in the analysis of the risk of pressure ulcers].

    PubMed

    Iveta, Vedrana; Krecak, Antonija; Kalogjera, Marija; Milić, Dorde

    2014-03-01

    The aim of the study was to analyze the risk of pressure ulcers in Dubrovnik General Hospital based on data from nursing documentation and records on the number of nurses on duty. Specifically, the intent was to show the importance of analyzing serum proteins in patients with a documented risk (Braden's scale) of pressure ulcers and to assess the incidence of pressure ulcers recorded during holidays/weekends when the number of nurses on duty is, generally, lower. The study included patients admitted to the hospital during the year 2012. Nursing documentation was the source of patient data. The risk of pressure ulcers was assessed in 34% of patients. Pressure ulcers were recorded in 185 patients, initially estimated as very high risk (32.3%), high risk (40%), moderate risk (7%) and no risk (20.7%). Analysis of total serum protein showed a significantly lower value in patients with ulcers in comparison with patients without pressure ulcer. During a one-month period (December 2012), the number of recorded pressure ulcers was analyzed at Department of Neurology according to weekends/holidays and other weekdays. Results showed the weekends/holidays to be more risky for the development of pressure ulcers (72% vs. 28%). At the same time, given the regulations on minimum requirements, about 33% of nurses are missing every day. However, over the weekend, this disadvantage can hardly compensate for the often demanding emergency admission patients. Therefore, our results suggest a possible reallocation of working hours for nurses respecting week routine and the need for the weekend. Continuous monitoring, documentation and evaluation of nursing work through documentation have created a prerequisite for professional communication that leads to good results and recognition of the profession. Good health care organization can significantly influence the overall treatment, which has professional and financial effects on the health care in general. PMID:24979892

  17. High Blood Pressure, Afib and Your Risk of Stroke

    MedlinePlus

    ... is generally considered the most common controllable risk factor for stroke, but atrial fibrillation is the most powerful, said Ralph L. Sacco, M.D., professor and chairman of neurology at the Miller School of Medicine at the University of Miami and past president of the American ...

  18. A model of psychosocial and cultural antecedents of blood pressure control.

    PubMed Central

    Bosworth, Hayden B.; Oddone, Eugene Z.

    2002-01-01

    Hypertension is a major modifiable risk factor for stroke, congestive heart failure, and end-stage renal disease. Hypertension is particularly prevalent and deadly among African Americans. Effective treatment for hypertension has been available for decades, yet only one fourth of all individuals have their blood pressure under control. Despite the potential impact of hypertension, interventions to improve control have had limited success. We present a model of how to understand antecedents of blood pressure control according to three interrelated categories: patient characteristics, social and cultural environment, and medical environment. This theoretical paper was conducted using a literature review and a model to explain psychosocial antecedents of blood pressure control is presented. We conclude that improved understanding of important antecedents of blood pressure control coupled with technological advances, such as tailored interventions, provide clinicians with a tool that may lead to improved blood pressure control. These interventions will require the involvement of clinicians and consideration of sociocultural factors to be successful. PMID:11991336

  19. Mechanical Modeling of a WIPP Drum Under Pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Jeffrey A.

    2014-11-25

    Mechanical modeling was undertaken to support the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) technical assessment team (TAT) investigating the February 14th 2014 event where there was a radiological release at the WIPP. The initial goal of the modeling was to examine if a mechanical model could inform the team about the event. The intention was to have a model that could test scenarios with respect to the rate of pressurization. It was expected that the deformation and failure (inability of the drum to contain any pressure) would vary according to the pressurization rate. As the work progressed there was also interest in using the mechanical analysis of the drum to investigate what would happen if a drum pressurized when it was located under a standard waste package. Specifically, would the deformation be detectable from camera views within the room. A finite element model of a WIPP 55-gallon drum was developed that used all hex elements. Analyses were conducted using the explicit transient dynamics module of Sierra/SM to explore potential pressurization scenarios of the drum. Theses analysis show similar deformation patterns to documented pressurization tests of drums in the literature. The calculated failure pressures from previous tests documented in the literature vary from as little as 16 psi to 320 psi. In addition, previous testing documented in the literature shows drums bulging but not failing at pressures ranging from 69 to 138 psi. The analyses performed for this study found the drums failing at pressures ranging from 35 psi to 75 psi. When the drums are pressurized quickly (in 0.01 seconds) there is significant deformation to the lid. At lower pressurization rates the deformation of the lid is considerably less, yet the lids will still open from the pressure. The analyses demonstrate the influence of pressurization rate on deformation and opening pressure of the drums. Analyses conducted with a substantial mass on top of the closed drum demonstrate that the

  20. Estimating the risk of pressure ulcer development: is it truly evidence based?

    PubMed

    Sharp, Catherine A; McLaws, Mary-Louise

    2006-12-01

    The aim of the current method of screening patients is to identify risk factors that are considered to cause, or contribute to, pressure ulcer (PU) development. Yet screening has not resulted in a reduction in pressure ulcer development. The literature was reviewed to identify the level of evidence for the inclusion of risk factors in six published pressure ulcer risk-screening tools. Evidence for each risk factor was ranked according to the National Health and Medical Research Council levels of evidence with a modification. Three of 19 risk factors (mobility, continence and nutrition) included in more than one screening tool have been tested for association with pressure ulcer development. While varying degrees of immobility and decreased serum albumin are reported to significantly increase the risk for PU development, the direction of the relationship, i.e. causal or resultant of PU, is not always clear. No publications reported a significant causal link between incontinence and PU development. Inclusion of risk factors for PU in screening tools must be evidence based. Until other risk factors have been tested for positive predictive value, the Ramstadius approach to screening is the only evidence-based tool.

  1. Childhood Risk Factors for Thin Body Preoccupation and Social Pressure to Be Thin

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agras, W. Stewart; Bryson, Susan; Hammer, Lawrence D.; Kraemer, Helena C.

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Thin body preoccupation and social pressure to be thin (TBPSP) in adolescence are risk factors for the development of full and partial bulimia nervosa and binge eating disorder. This study examined precursors of these potent risk factors. Method: A prospective study followed 134 children from birth to 11.0 years and their parents.…

  2. High pressure common rail injection system modeling and control.

    PubMed

    Wang, H P; Zheng, D; Tian, Y

    2016-07-01

    In this paper modeling and common-rail pressure control of high pressure common rail injection system (HPCRIS) is presented. The proposed mathematical model of high pressure common rail injection system which contains three sub-systems: high pressure pump sub-model, common rail sub-model and injector sub-model is a relative complicated nonlinear system. The mathematical model is validated by the software Matlab and a virtual detailed simulation environment. For the considered HPCRIS, an effective model free controller which is called Extended State Observer - based intelligent Proportional Integral (ESO-based iPI) controller is designed. And this proposed method is composed mainly of the referred ESO observer, and a time delay estimation based iPI controller. Finally, to demonstrate the performances of the proposed controller, the proposed ESO-based iPI controller is compared with a conventional PID controller and ADRC. PMID:27012440

  3. Reliability Models and Attributable Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jarvinen, Richard D.

    1999-01-01

    The intention of this report is to bring a developing and extremely useful statistical methodology to greater attention within the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office of the NASA Johnson Space Center. The statistical methods in this exposition are found under the heading of attributable risk. Recently the Safety, Reliability, and Quality Assurance Office at the Johnson Space Center has supported efforts to introduce methods of medical research statistics dealing with the survivability of people to bear on the problems of aerospace that deal with the reliability of component hardware used in the NASA space program. This report, which describes several study designs for which attributable risk is used, is in concert with the latter goals. The report identifies areas of active research in attributable risk while briefly describing much of what has been developed in the theory of attributable risk. The report, which largely is a report on a report, attempts to recast the medical setting and language commonly found in descriptions of attributable risk into the setting and language of the space program and its component hardware.

  4. Incidence and Predicted Risk Factors of Pressure Ulcers in Surgical Patients: Experience at a Medical Center in Taipei, Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Fu Shaw, Ling; Chang, Pao-Chu; Lee, Jung-Fen; Kung, Huei-Yu

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. To explore the context of incidence of and associated risk factors for pressure ulcers amongst the population of surgical patients. Methods. The initial study cohort was conducted with a total of 297 patients admitted to a teaching hospital for a surgical operation from November 14th to 27th 2006 in Taipei, Taiwan. The Braden scale, pressure ulcers record sheet, and perioperative patient outcomes free from signs and symptoms of injury related to positioning and related nursing interventions and activities were collected. Results. The incidence of immediate and thirty-minute-later pressure ulcers is 9.8% (29/297) and 5.1% (15/297), respectively. Using logistic regression model, the statistically significantly associated risk factors related to immediate and thirty-minute-later pressure ulcers include operation age, type of anesthesia, type of operation position, type of surgery, admission Braden score, and number of nursing intervention after adjustment for confounding factors. Conclusion. Admission Braden score and number of nursing intervention are well-established protected factors for the development of pressure ulcers. Our study shows that older operation age, type of anesthesia, type of operation position, and type of surgery are also associated with the development of pressure ulcers. PMID:25057484

  5. Is It Daily, Monthly, or Yearly Blood Pressure Variability that Enhances Cardiovascular Risk?

    PubMed

    Dolan, Eamon; O'Brien, Eoin

    2015-11-01

    Variability is a phenomenon common to most biological processes that we can measure and is a particular feature of blood pressure (BP). Variability causes concern for many physicians regarding its clinical meaning and potential impact on cardiovascular risk. In this review, we assess the role of different time periods of blood pressure variability (BPV) in cardiovascular risk stratification. We review the indices of BPV derived from ambulatory blood pressure measurement (ABPM), home blood pressure measurement (HBPM), or at the clinic setting with the intention of providing a clear message for clinical practice. BPV, either derived from ABPM or HBPM, does not consistently augment cardiovascular risk prediction over and beyond that of average BP, particularly in low-risk individuals. That said, it would seem that certain medications such as calcium channel blockers may have a beneficial effect on visit-to-visit BPV and perhaps reduce the associated cardiovascular risk. This highlights the benefits in using combination therapy which might couple a number of therapeutic benefits such as the reductions of mean blood pressure and BPV. Overall, we should remain aware that the average BP level remains the main modifiable risk factor derived from BP measurements and continue to improve the control of hypertension and adverse health outcomes. PMID:26351017

  6. Foot Modeling and Smart Plantar Pressure Reconstruction from Three Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Ghaida, Hussein Abou; Mottet, Serge; Goujon, Jean-Marc

    2014-01-01

    In order to monitor pressure under feet, this study presents a biomechanical model of the human foot. The main elements of the foot that induce the plantar pressure distribution are described. Then the link between the forces applied at the ankle and the distribution of the plantar pressure is established. Assumptions are made by defining the concepts of a 3D internal foot shape, which can be extracted from the plantar pressure measurements, and a uniform elastic medium, which describes the soft tissues behaviour. In a second part, we show that just 3 discrete pressure sensors per foot are enough to generate real time plantar pressure cartographies in the standing position or during walking. Finally, the generated cartographies are compared with pressure cartographies issued from the F-SCAN system. The results show 0.01 daN (2% of full scale) average error, in the standing position. PMID:25400713

  7. Development of Standardized Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Shutdown Operations Integrated in SPAR Level 1 Model

    SciTech Connect

    S. T. Khericha; J. Mitman

    2008-05-01

    Nuclear plant operating experience and several studies show that the risk from shutdown operation during Modes 4, 5, and 6 at pressurized water reactors and Modes 4 and 5 at boiling water reactors can be significant. This paper describes using the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s full-power Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) model as the starting point for development of risk evaluation models for commercial nuclear power plants. The shutdown models are integrated with their respective internal event at-power SPAR model. This is accomplished by combining the modified system fault trees from the SPAR full-power model with shutdown event tree logic. Preliminary human reliability analysis results indicate that risk is dominated by the operator’s ability to correctly diagnose events and initiate systems.

  8. A methodology for modeling regional terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Abkowitz, Mark D

    2011-07-01

    Over the past decade, terrorism risk has become a prominent consideration in protecting the well-being of individuals and organizations. More recently, there has been interest in not only quantifying terrorism risk, but also placing it in the context of an all-hazards environment in which consideration is given to accidents and natural hazards, as well as intentional acts. This article discusses the development of a regional terrorism risk assessment model designed for this purpose. The approach taken is to model terrorism risk as a dependent variable, expressed in expected annual monetary terms, as a function of attributes of population concentration and critical infrastructure. This allows for an assessment of regional terrorism risk in and of itself, as well as in relation to man-made accident and natural hazard risks, so that mitigation resources can be allocated in an effective manner. The adopted methodology incorporates elements of two terrorism risk modeling approaches (event-based models and risk indicators), producing results that can be utilized at various jurisdictional levels. The validity, strengths, and limitations of the model are discussed in the context of a case study application within the United States.

  9. Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

    PubMed

    Ehret, Georg B; Munroe, Patricia B; Rice, Kenneth M; Bochud, Murielle; Johnson, Andrew D; Chasman, Daniel I; Smith, Albert V; Tobin, Martin D; Verwoert, Germaine C; Hwang, Shih-Jen; Pihur, Vasyl; Vollenweider, Peter; O'Reilly, Paul F; Amin, Najaf; Bragg-Gresham, Jennifer L; Teumer, Alexander; Glazer, Nicole L; Launer, Lenore; Zhao, Jing Hua; Aulchenko, Yurii; Heath, Simon; Sõber, Siim; Parsa, Afshin; Luan, Jian'an; Arora, Pankaj; Dehghan, Abbas; Zhang, Feng; Lucas, Gavin; Hicks, Andrew A; Jackson, Anne U; Peden, John F; Tanaka, Toshiko; Wild, Sarah H; Rudan, Igor; Igl, Wilmar; Milaneschi, Yuri; Parker, Alex N; Fava, Cristiano; Chambers, John C; Fox, Ervin R; Kumari, Meena; Go, Min Jin; van der Harst, Pim; Kao, Wen Hong Linda; Sjögren, Marketa; Vinay, D G; Alexander, Myriam; Tabara, Yasuharu; Shaw-Hawkins, Sue; Whincup, Peter H; Liu, Yongmei; Shi, Gang; Kuusisto, Johanna; Tayo, Bamidele; Seielstad, Mark; Sim, Xueling; Nguyen, Khanh-Dung Hoang; Lehtimäki, Terho; Matullo, Giuseppe; Wu, Ying; Gaunt, Tom R; Onland-Moret, N Charlotte; Cooper, Matthew N; Platou, Carl G P; Org, Elin; Hardy, Rebecca; Dahgam, Santosh; Palmen, Jutta; Vitart, Veronique; Braund, Peter S; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Palmas, Walter; Campbell, Harry; Ludwig, Barbara; Tomaszewski, Maciej; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Palmer, Nicholette D; Aspelund, Thor; Garcia, Melissa; Chang, Yen-Pei C; O'Connell, Jeffrey R; Steinle, Nanette I; Grobbee, Diederick E; Arking, Dan E; Kardia, Sharon L; Morrison, Alanna C; Hernandez, Dena; Najjar, Samer; McArdle, Wendy L; Hadley, David; Brown, Morris J; Connell, John M; Hingorani, Aroon D; Day, Ian N M; Lawlor, Debbie A; Beilby, John P; Lawrence, Robert W; Clarke, Robert; Hopewell, Jemma C; Ongen, Halit; Dreisbach, Albert W; Li, Yali; Young, J Hunter; Bis, Joshua C; Kähönen, Mika; Viikari, Jorma; Adair, Linda S; Lee, Nanette R; Chen, Ming-Huei; Olden, Matthias; Pattaro, Cristian; Bolton, Judith A Hoffman; Köttgen, Anna; Bergmann, Sven; Mooser, Vincent; Chaturvedi, Nish; Frayling, Timothy M; Islam, Muhammad; Jafar, Tazeen H; Erdmann, Jeanette; Kulkarni, Smita R; Bornstein, Stefan R; Grässler, Jürgen; Groop, Leif; Voight, Benjamin F; Kettunen, Johannes; Howard, Philip; Taylor, Andrew; Guarrera, Simonetta; Ricceri, Fulvio; Emilsson, Valur; Plump, Andrew; Barroso, Inês; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Weder, Alan B; Hunt, Steven C; Sun, Yan V; Bergman, Richard N; Collins, Francis S; Bonnycastle, Lori L; Scott, Laura J; Stringham, Heather M; Peltonen, Leena; Perola, Markus; Vartiainen, Erkki; Brand, Stefan-Martin; Staessen, Jan A; Wang, Thomas J; Burton, Paul R; Soler Artigas, Maria; Dong, Yanbin; Snieder, Harold; Wang, Xiaoling; Zhu, Haidong; Lohman, Kurt K; Rudock, Megan E; Heckbert, Susan R; Smith, Nicholas L; Wiggins, Kerri L; Doumatey, Ayo; Shriner, Daniel; Veldre, Gudrun; Viigimaa, Margus; Kinra, Sanjay; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Tripathy, Vikal; Langefeld, Carl D; Rosengren, Annika; Thelle, Dag S; Corsi, Anna Maria; Singleton, Andrew; Forrester, Terrence; Hilton, Gina; McKenzie, Colin A; Salako, Tunde; Iwai, Naoharu; Kita, Yoshikuni; Ogihara, Toshio; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Okamura, Tomonori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Umemura, Satoshi; Eyheramendy, Susana; Meitinger, Thomas; Wichmann, H-Erich; Cho, Yoon Shin; Kim, Hyung-Lae; Lee, Jong-Young; Scott, James; Sehmi, Joban S; Zhang, Weihua; Hedblad, Bo; Nilsson, Peter; Smith, George Davey; Wong, Andrew; Narisu, Narisu; Stančáková, Alena; Raffel, Leslie J; Yao, Jie; Kathiresan, Sekar; O'Donnell, Christopher J; Schwartz, Stephen M; Ikram, M Arfan; Longstreth, W T; Mosley, Thomas H; Seshadri, Sudha; Shrine, Nick R G; Wain, Louise V; Morken, Mario A; Swift, Amy J; Laitinen, Jaana; Prokopenko, Inga; Zitting, Paavo; Cooper, Jackie A; Humphries, Steve E; Danesh, John; Rasheed, Asif; Goel, Anuj; Hamsten, Anders; Watkins, Hugh; Bakker, Stephan J L; van Gilst, Wiek H; Janipalli, Charles S; Mani, K Radha; Yajnik, Chittaranjan S; Hofman, Albert; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U S; Oostra, Ben A; Demirkan, Ayse; Isaacs, Aaron; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Lakatta, Edward G; Orru, Marco; Scuteri, Angelo; Ala-Korpela, Mika; Kangas, Antti J; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Soininen, Pasi; Tukiainen, Taru; Würtz, Peter; Ong, Rick Twee-Hee; Dörr, Marcus; Kroemer, Heyo K; Völker, Uwe; Völzke, Henry; Galan, Pilar; Hercberg, Serge; Lathrop, Mark; Zelenika, Diana; Deloukas, Panos; Mangino, Massimo; Spector, Tim D; Zhai, Guangju; Meschia, James F; Nalls, Michael A; Sharma, Pankaj; Terzic, Janos; Kumar, M V Kranthi; Denniff, Matthew; Zukowska-Szczechowska, Ewa; Wagenknecht, Lynne E; Fowkes, F Gerald R; Charchar, Fadi J; Schwarz, Peter E H; Hayward, Caroline; Guo, Xiuqing; Rotimi, Charles; Bots, Michiel L; Brand, Eva; Samani, Nilesh J; Polasek, Ozren; Talmud, Philippa J; Nyberg, Fredrik; Kuh, Diana; Laan, Maris; Hveem, Kristian; Palmer, Lyle J; van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Casas, Juan P; Mohlke, Karen L; Vineis, Paolo; Raitakari, Olli; Ganesh, Santhi K; Wong, Tien Y; Tai, E Shyong; Cooper, Richard S; Laakso, Markku; Rao, Dabeeru C; Harris, Tamara B; Morris, Richard W; Dominiczak, Anna F; Kivimaki, Mika; Marmot, Michael G; Miki, Tetsuro; Saleheen, Danish; Chandak, Giriraj R; Coresh, Josef; Navis, Gerjan; Salomaa, Veikko; Han, Bok-Ghee; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kooner, Jaspal S; Melander, Olle; Ridker, Paul M; Bandinelli, Stefania; Gyllensten, Ulf B; Wright, Alan F; Wilson, James F; Ferrucci, Luigi; Farrall, Martin; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Pramstaller, Peter P; Elosua, Roberto; Soranzo, Nicole; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Altshuler, David; Loos, Ruth J F; Shuldiner, Alan R; Gieger, Christian; Meneton, Pierre; Uitterlinden, Andre G; Wareham, Nicholas J; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Rotter, Jerome I; Rettig, Rainer; Uda, Manuela; Strachan, David P; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Hartikainen, Anna-Liisa; Beckmann, Jacques S; Boerwinkle, Eric; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Boehnke, Michael; Larson, Martin G; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Psaty, Bruce M; Abecasis, Gonçalo R; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Elliott, Paul; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Newton-Cheh, Christopher; Levy, Daniel; Caulfield, Mark J; Johnson, Toby

    2011-09-11

    Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.

  10. Pressurized water reactor fuel crud and corrosion modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deshon, Jeff; Hussey, Dennis; Kendrick, Brian; McGurk, John; Secker, Jeff; Short, Michael

    2011-08-01

    Pressurized water reactors circulate high-temperature water that slowly corrodes Inconel and stainless steel system surfaces, and the nickel/iron based corrosion products deposit in regions of the fuel where sub-cooled nucleate boiling occurs. The deposited corrosion products, called `crud', can have an adverse impact on fuel performance. Boron can concentrate within the crud in the boiling regions of the fuel leading to a phenomenon known as axial offset anomaly (AOA). In rare cases, fuel clad integrity can be compromised because of crud-induced localized corrosion (CILC) of the zirconium-based alloy. Westinghouse and the Electric Power Research Institute have committed to understanding the crud transport process and develop a risk assessment software tool called boron-induced offset anomaly (BOA) to avoid AOA and CILC. This paper reviews the history of the BOA model development and new efforts to develop a micro-scale model called MAMBA for use in the Consortium for Advanced Light Water Reactor Simulation (CASL) program.

  11. Adversarial risk analysis for counterterrorism modeling.

    PubMed

    Rios, Jesus; Rios Insua, David

    2012-05-01

    Recent large-scale terrorist attacks have raised interest in models for resource allocation against terrorist threats. The unifying theme in this area is the need to develop methods for the analysis of allocation decisions when risks stem from the intentional actions of intelligent adversaries. Most approaches to these problems have a game-theoretic flavor although there are also several interesting decision-analytic-based proposals. One of them is the recently introduced framework for adversarial risk analysis, which deals with decision-making problems that involve intelligent opponents and uncertain outcomes. We explore how adversarial risk analysis addresses some standard counterterrorism models: simultaneous defend-attack models, sequential defend-attack-defend models, and sequential defend-attack models with private information. For each model, we first assess critically what would be a typical game-theoretic approach and then provide the corresponding solution proposed by the adversarial risk analysis framework, emphasizing how to coherently assess a predictive probability model of the adversary's actions, in a context in which we aim at supporting decisions of a defender versus an attacker. This illustrates the application of adversarial risk analysis to basic counterterrorism models that may be used as basic building blocks for more complex risk analysis of counterterrorism problems. PMID:22150163

  12. PRISM: a planned risk information seeking model.

    PubMed

    Kahlor, LeeAnn

    2010-06-01

    Recent attention on health-related information seeking has focused primarily on information seeking within specific health and health risk contexts. This study attempts to shift some of that focus to individual-level variables that may impact health risk information seeking across contexts. To locate these variables, the researcher posits an integrated model, the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM). The model, which treats risk information seeking as a deliberate (planned) behavior, maps variables found in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB; Ajzen, 1991) and the Risk Information Seeking and Processing Model (RISP; Griffin, Dunwoody, & Neuwirth, 1999), and posits linkages among those variables. This effort is further informed by Kahlor's (2007) Augmented RISP, the Theory of Motivated Information Management (Afifi & Weiner, 2004), the Comprehensive Model of Information Seeking (Johnson & Meischke, 1993), the Health Information Acquisition Model (Freimuth, Stein, & Kean, 1989), and the Extended Parallel Processing Model (Witte, 1998). The resulting integrated model accounted for 59% of the variance in health risk information-seeking intent and performed better than the TPB or the RISP alone. PMID:20512716

  13. Quantitative risk modeling in aseptic manufacture.

    PubMed

    Tidswell, Edward C; McGarvey, Bernard

    2006-01-01

    Expedient risk assessment of aseptic manufacturing processes offers unique opportunities for improved and sustained assurance of product quality. Contemporary risk assessments applied to aseptic manufacturing processes, however, are commonly handicapped by assumptions and subjectivity, leading to inexactitude. Quantitative risk modeling augmented with Monte Carlo simulations represents a novel, innovative, and more efficient means of risk assessment. This technique relies upon fewer assumptions and removes subjectivity to more swiftly generate an improved, more realistic, quantitative estimate of risk. The fundamental steps and requirements for an assessment of the risk of bioburden ingress into aseptically manufactured products are described. A case study exemplifies how quantitative risk modeling and Monte Carlo simulations achieve a more rapid and improved determination of the risk of bioburden ingress during the aseptic filling of a parenteral product. Although application of quantitative risk modeling is described here purely for the purpose of process improvement, the technique has far wider relevance in the assisted disposition of batches, cleanroom management, and the utilization of real-time data from rapid microbial monitoring technologies. PMID:17089696

  14. The association of hypertension and diabetes: prevalence, cardiovascular risk and protection by blood pressure reduction.

    PubMed

    Mancia, G

    2005-04-01

    Diabetes and hypertension frequently coexist, and their combination provides additive increases in the risk of life-threatening cardiovascular events. Recent guidelines agree on the need for early, aggressive reduction of blood pressure, with a goal of <130/80 mmHg, in patients with diabetes. The mechanism that underpins the increased sensitivity of diabetic subjects to hypertension is not known, but may involve impaired autoregulation or attenuated nocturnal decrease of blood pressure. All classes of antihypertensive agents are effective in reducing blood pressure in diabetic subjects, and all show evidence of a concomitant reduction in cardiovascular risk. Although there is some evidence that agents that interrupt the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) provide greater protective effects, the data are not conclusive. However, most diabetic subjects will require combination therapy to reach goal blood pressure. Antihypertensive drugs can also significantly influence the probability that otherwise healthy individuals will develop metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes. While diuretics and betablockers have a prodiabetic effect, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers may prevent diabetes more effectively than the metabolically neutral calcium channel blockers. Given that diabetes is an important cardiovascular risk factor, there is the potential for reductions in risk due to reduced blood pressure to be offset by an increased risk due to the development of diabetes. Such concerns should be considered in the selection of antihypertensive therapy. PMID:15868115

  15. Visual Impairment/lntracranial Pressure Risk Clinical Care Data Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Van Baalen, Mary; Mason, Sara S.; Taiym, Wafa; Wear, Mary L.; Moynihan, Shannan; Alexander, David; Hart, Steve; Tarver, William

    2014-01-01

    Prior to 2010, several ISS crewmembers returned from spaceflight with changes to their vision, ranging from a mild hyperopic shift to frank disc edema. As a result, NASA expanded clinical vision testing to include more comprehensive medical imaging, including Optical Coherence Tomography and 3 Tesla Brain and Orbit MRIs. The Space and Clinical Operations (SCO) Division developed a clinical practice guideline that classified individuals based on their symptoms and diagnoses to facilitate clinical care. For the purposes of clinical surveillance, this classification was applied retrospectively to all crewmembers who had sufficient testing for classification. This classification is also a tool that has been leveraged for researchers to identify potential risk factors. In March 2014, driven in part by a more comprehensive understanding of the imaging data and increased imaging capability on orbit, the SCO Division revised their clinical care guidance to outline in-flight care and increase post-flight follow up. The new clinical guidance does not include a classification scheme

  16. Korean Risk Assessment Model for Breast Cancer Risk Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Park, Boyoung; Ma, Seung Hyun; Shin, Aesun; Chang, Myung-Chul; Choi, Ji-Yeob; Kim, Sungwan; Han, Wonshik; Noh, Dong-Young; Ahn, Sei-Hyun; Kang, Daehee; Yoo, Keun-Young; Park, Sue K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose We evaluated the performance of the Gail model for a Korean population and developed a Korean breast cancer risk assessment tool (KoBCRAT) based upon equations developed for the Gail model for predicting breast cancer risk. Methods Using 3,789 sets of cases and controls, risk factors for breast cancer among Koreans were identified. Individual probabilities were projected using Gail's equations and Korean hazard data. We compared the 5-year and lifetime risk produced using the modified Gail model which applied Korean incidence and mortality data and the parameter estimators from the original Gail model with those produced using the KoBCRAT. We validated the KoBCRAT based on the expected/observed breast cancer incidence and area under the curve (AUC) using two Korean cohorts: the Korean Multicenter Cancer Cohort (KMCC) and National Cancer Center (NCC) cohort. Results The major risk factors under the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at first full-term pregnancy, menopausal status, breastfeeding duration, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise, while those at and over the age of 50 were family history, age at menarche, age at menopause, pregnancy experience, body mass index, oral contraceptive usage, and exercise. The modified Gail model produced lower 5-year risk for the cases than for the controls (p = 0.017), while the KoBCRAT produced higher 5-year and lifetime risk for the cases than for the controls (p<0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The observed incidence of breast cancer in the two cohorts was similar to the expected incidence from the KoBCRAT (KMCC, p = 0.880; NCC, p = 0.878). The AUC using the KoBCRAT was 0.61 for the KMCC and 0.89 for the NCC cohort. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the KoBCRAT is a better tool for predicting the risk of breast cancer in Korean women, especially urban women. PMID:24204664

  17. Modeling flow in a pressure-sensitive, heterogeneous medium

    SciTech Connect

    Vasco, Donald W.; Minkoff, Susan E.

    2009-06-01

    Using an asymptotic methodology, including an expansion in inverse powers of {radical}{omega}, where {omega} is the frequency, we derive a solution for flow in a medium with pressure dependent properties. The solution is valid for a heterogeneous medium with smoothly varying properties. That is, the scale length of the heterogeneity must be significantly larger then the scale length over which the pressure increases from it initial value to its peak value. The resulting asymptotic expression is similar in form to the solution for pressure in a medium in which the flow properties are not functions of pressure. Both the expression for pseudo-phase, which is related to the 'travel time' of the transient pressure disturbance, and the expression for pressure amplitude contain modifications due to the pressure dependence of the medium. We apply the method to synthetic and observed pressure variations in a deforming medium. In the synthetic test we model one-dimensional propagation in a pressure-dependent medium. Comparisons with both an analytic self-similar solution and the results of a numerical simulation indicate general agreement. Furthermore, we are able to match pressure variations observed during a pulse test at the Coaraze Laboratory site in France.

  18. Risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Linkov, L.; Schell, W.R.

    1996-06-01

    As a result of nuclear industry operation and accidents, large areas of natural ecosystems have been contaminated by radionuclides and toxic metals. Extensive societal pressure has been exerted to decrease the radiation dose to the population and to the environment. Thus, in making abatement and remediation policy decisions, not only economic costs but also human and environmental risk assessments are desired. This paper introduces a general framework for risk assessment and remedial policy evaluation using predictive modeling. Ecological risk assessment requires evaluation of the radionuclide distribution in ecosystems. The FORESTPATH model is used for predicting the radionuclide fate in forest compartments after deposition as well as for evaluating the efficiency of remedial policies. Time of intervention and radionuclide deposition profile was predicted as being crucial for the remediation efficiency. Risk assessment conducted for a critical group of forest users in Belarus shows that consumption of forest products (berries and mushrooms) leads to about 0.004% risk of a fatal cancer annually. Cost-benefit analysis for forest cleanup suggests that complete removal of organic layer is too expensive for application in Belarus and a better methodology is required. In conclusion, FORESTPATH modeling framework could have wide applications in environmental remediation of radionuclides and toxic metals as well as in dose reconstruction and, risk-assessment.

  19. Integrated Environmental Modeling: Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The presentation discusses the need for microbial assessments and presents a road map associated with quantitative microbial risk assessments, through an integrated environmental modeling approach. A brief introduction and the strengths of the current knowledge are illustrated. W...

  20. Low temperature ablation models made by pressure/vacuum application

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fischer, M. C.; Heier, W. C.

    1970-01-01

    Method developed employs high pressure combined with strong vacuum force to compact ablation models into desired conical shape. Technique eliminates vapor hazard and results in high material density providing excellent structural integrity.

  1. Characterization of a Murine Pressure Ulcer Model to Assess Efficacy of Adipose-derived Stromal Cells

    PubMed Central

    Strong, Amy L.; Bowles, Annie C.; MacCrimmon, Connor P.; Lee, Stephen J.; Frazier, Trivia P.; Katz, Adam J.; Gawronska-Kozak, Barbara; Bunnell, Bruce A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: As the world’s population lives longer, the number of individuals at risk for pressure ulcers will increase considerably in the coming decades. In developed countries, up to 18% of nursing home residents suffer from pressure ulcers and the resulting hospital costs can account for up to 4% of a nation’s health care budget. Although full-thickness surgical skin wounds have been used as a model, preclinical rodent studies have demonstrated that repeated cycles of ischemia and reperfusion created by exposure to magnets most closely mimic the human pressure ulcer condition. Methods: This study uses in vivo and in vitro quantitative parameters to characterize the temporal kinetics and histology of pressure ulcers in young, female C57BL/6 mice exposed to 2 or 3 ischemia-reperfusion cycles. This pressure ulcer model was validated further in studies examining the efficacy of adipose-derived stromal/stem cell administration. Results: Optimal results were obtained with the 2-cycle model based on the wound size, histology, and gene expression profile of representative angiogenic and reparative messenger RNAs. When treated with adipose-derived stromal/stem cells, pressure ulcer wounds displayed a dose-dependent and significant acceleration in wound closure rates and improved tissue histology. Conclusion: These findings document the utility of this simplified preclinical model for the evaluation of novel tissue engineering and medical approaches to treat pressure ulcers in humans. PMID:25878945

  2. Ultra-High Pressure Modeling and Experiments Review

    SciTech Connect

    Costantino, M; Darnell, I

    2004-06-01

    The RDHWT/MARIAH II energy addition, run time, and mass flow rate requirement simply large air and nitrogen fluid volumes at the highest practicable static enthalpy. The objective of the gas supply concept development is the satisfaction of ultra-high pressure (UHP), high temperature thermodynamic requirements in a facility with acceptable safety and economic risks. The primary challenges for the mechanical design are connecting multiple volumes at pressures greater than 1,400MPa and temperatures greater than 500 K; fabricating high strength steel sections approximately 2 m in typical dimension, and reacting the pressure-related forces in the system. In the 'octahedral module' concept, four UHP intensifiers and two UHP manifolds are arranged in an 'octahedral' geometry that results in acceptable deviatoric stresses at cross bores. Multiple modules join to provide the required UHP volume at a stagnation pressure of 2100MPa and stagnation temperature of 750 K.

  3. Modelling of air pressure effects in casting moulds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Attar, E.; Homayonifar, P.; Babaei, R.; Asgari, K.; Davami, P.

    2005-09-01

    In the casting process, as a mould is filled with molten metal, air escapes through the vents. Air pressure in the mould cavity has serious effects upon the filling behaviour such as surface profile of the molten metal and filling time. In this project a computational model was developed for calculation of air pressure during the mould filling. A 3D single phase code based on the SOLA-VOF algorithm was used for the prediction of the fluid flow. The ideal gas assumption, conservation of mass equation and Bernoulli law were used for the calculation of air pressure. A new algorithm was developed to interpolate air pressure on the surface cells. The creation of air pressure was correlated with the sizes of the vents and their locations. An experimental test was designed to verify the modelling results. Comparison between the experimental data and simulation results has shown a good agreement.

  4. The incidence, risk factors and characteristics of pressure ulcers in hospitalized patients in China.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Qixia; Li, Xiaohua; Qu, Xiaolong; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Liyan; Su, Chunyin; Guo, Xiujun; Chen, Yuejuan; Zhu, Yajun; Jia, Jing; Bo, Suping; Liu, Li; Zhang, Rui; Xu, Ling; Wu, Leyan; Wang, Hai; Wang, Jiandong

    2014-01-01

    Pressure ulcers are very common in hospital patients. Though many studies have been reported in many countries, the large-scale benchmarking prevalence of pressure ulcers in China is not available. The aim of this study is to quantify the prevalence of pressure ulcers and the incidence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers and analyze risk factors in hospitalized patients in China. A multi-central cross-sectional survey was conducted in one university hospital and 11 general hospitals in China. The Minimum Data Set (MDS) recommended by European Pressure Ulcer Advisory Panel (EUPAP) was used to collect information of inpatients. All patients stayed in hospital more than 24 hours and older than 18 years signed consent form and were included. Data from 39952 out of 40415 (98.85%) inpatients were analyzed. Of the 39952 patients, 631 patients (including 1024 locations) had pressure ulcers. The prevalence rate of pressure ulcers in 12 hospitals was 1.58% (0.94-2.97%). The incidence of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers (HAPU) was 0.63% (0.20-1.20%). The most common locations developed pressure ulcers were sacrum, heels, and iliac crests. The common stages of pressure ulcers were stage I and II. Patients in Intensive Care Unit, Geriatric and Neurological Department were easier to develop pressure ulcers. The prevalence and incidence of pressure ulcers in China was lower than that reported in European and other countries. The stages of pressure ulcers in China were different than that reported in European countries. Our study provides with a baseline value for intensive research on pressure ulcer in China.

  5. Breast cancer risk prediction using a clinical risk model and polygenic risk score.

    PubMed

    Shieh, Yiwey; Hu, Donglei; Ma, Lin; Huntsman, Scott; Gard, Charlotte C; Leung, Jessica W T; Tice, Jeffrey A; Vachon, Celine M; Cummings, Steven R; Kerlikowske, Karla; Ziv, Elad

    2016-10-01

    Breast cancer risk assessment can inform the use of screening and prevention modalities. We investigated the performance of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model in combination with a polygenic risk score (PRS) comprised of 83 single nucleotide polymorphisms identified from genome-wide association studies. We conducted a nested case-control study of 486 cases and 495 matched controls within a screening cohort. The PRS was calculated using a Bayesian approach. The contributions of the PRS and variables in the BCSC model to breast cancer risk were tested using conditional logistic regression. Discriminatory accuracy of the models was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Increasing quartiles of the PRS were positively associated with breast cancer risk, with OR 2.54 (95 % CI 1.69-3.82) for breast cancer in the highest versus lowest quartile. In a multivariable model, the PRS, family history, and breast density remained strong risk factors. The AUROC of the PRS was 0.60 (95 % CI 0.57-0.64), and an Asian-specific PRS had AUROC 0.64 (95 % CI 0.53-0.74). A combined model including the BCSC risk factors and PRS had better discrimination than the BCSC model (AUROC 0.65 versus 0.62, p = 0.01). The BCSC-PRS model classified 18 % of cases as high-risk (5-year risk ≥3 %), compared with 7 % using the BCSC model. The PRS improved discrimination of the BCSC risk model and classified more cases as high-risk. Further consideration of the PRS's role in decision-making around screening and prevention strategies is merited. PMID:27565998

  6. Probing and Modeling of Pressure-induced Structural Transformation in Oxide Melts at High Pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cody, G.; Lee, S.; Mysen, B.; Fei, Y.; Eng, P.

    2008-12-01

    Pressure-induced bonding transitions in oxide melts give improved prospects for the non-linear pressure dependence of their macroscopic transport properties in the earth's interior. The inherent difficulties of current experimental technologies, however, pose major challenges for probing structural changes of prototypical model oxide melts at high pressure, making it one of the unsolved problems in geophysics. Recent advances in element specific experimental probe of local structures, such as high resolution solid- state NMR and x-ray Raman scattering unveils new structural insights into the pressure-induced changes in the bonding nature (either gradual or abrupt) of the archetypal oxides melts (e.g. Lee SK et al. Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci. 2008, 105, 7925; Lee SK et al. J. Phys. Chem. B. 2008 in press). Here, we report recent progress that we have made using these techniques. Non-random spatial distribution of aluminum in oxide glasses were for the first time revealed via through-space correlation NMR spectroscopy: four, five, six coordinated aluminums have differential proximity among each other but favoring the formation of clusters mainly composed of six coordinated Al. While silicate glasses studied here exhibit a general trend of decreasing non-bridging oxygen fraction with pressure, the details of their pressure dependence is significantly affected by the composition of melts, such as Na/Si, Si/Al ratio as well as types of network modifying cations. We account for these differences with a conceptual model that utilizes pressure flexibility (the resistance to structural changes with increased pressurization). An oxide melts with a large pressure flexibility, thus, may undergo a gradual structural transformation. In contrast, a melts with the opposite behavior undergoes an abrupt coordination transformation. The observed information of connectivity among network forming cations was used to calculate the crystal-melt partitioning coefficient and activity of silica in

  7. Modelling oxygen self-diffusion in UO2 under pressure

    DOE PAGES

    Cooper, Michael William D.; Grimes, R. W.; Fitzpatrick, M. E.; Chroneos, A.

    2015-10-22

    Access to values for oxygen self-diffusion over a range of temperatures and pressures in UO2 is important to nuclear fuel applications. Here, elastic and expansivity data are used in the framework of a thermodynamic model, the cBΩ model, to derive the oxygen self-diffusion coefficient in UO2 over a range of pressures (0–10 GPa) and temperatures (300–1900 K). Furthermore, the significant reduction in oxygen self-diffusion as a function of increasing hydrostatic pressure, and the associated increase in activation energy, is identified.

  8. Risk Management in environmental geotechnical modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tammemäe, Olavi; Torn, Hardi

    2008-01-01

    The objective of this article is to provide an overview of the basis of risk analysis, assessment and management, accompanying problems and principles of risk management when drafting an environmental geotechnical model, enabling the analysis of an entire territory or developed region as a whole. The environmental impact will remain within the limits of the criteria specified with the standards and will be acceptable for human health and environment. An essential part of the solution of the problem is the engineering-geological model based on risk analysis and the assessment and forecast of mutual effects of the processes.

  9. Improved Solar-Radiation-Pressure Models for GPS Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bar-Sever, Yoaz; Kuang, Da

    2006-01-01

    A report describes a series of computational models conceived as an improvement over prior models for determining effects of solar-radiation pressure on orbits of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. These models are based on fitting coefficients of Fourier functions of Sun-spacecraft- Earth angles to observed spacecraft orbital motions.

  10. An asperity-deformation model for effective pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gangi, Anthony F.; Carlson, Richard L.

    1996-05-01

    Variations of the mechanical and transport properties of cracked and/or porous rocks under isotropic stress depend on both the confining pressure ( Pc) and the pore-fluid pressure ( Pp). To a first approximation, these rock properties are functions of the differential pressure, Pd = Pc - Pp; at least for low differential pressures. However, at higher differential pressures, the properties depend in a more complicated way upon the two pressures. The concept of effective pressure, Pe, is used to denote this variation and it is defined as Pe( Pc, Pp) = Pc - n( Pc, Pp) Pp. If n = 1 (and therefore, is independent of Pc and Pp), the effective pressure is just the differential pressure. We have used an asperity-deformation model and a force-balance equation to derive expressions for the effective pressure. We equate the total external force (in one direction), Fc, to the total force on the asperities, Fa, and the force of the fluid, Fp, acting in that same direction. The fluid force, Fp, acts only on the parts of the crack (or pore-volume) faces which are not in contact. Then, the asperity pressure, Pa, is the average force per unit area acting on the crack (or grain) contacts P a = {F a}/{A} = {F c}/{A} - {F p}/{A} = P c - (1 - {A c}/{A})P p, where A is the total area over which Fc acts and Ac is the area of contact of the crack asperities or the grains. Thus, the asperity pressure, Pa, is greater than the differential pressure, Pd, because Pp acts on a smaller area, A- Ac, than the total area, A. For elastic asperities, the area of contact Ac and the strain (e.g., crack and pore openings) remain the same, to a high degree of approximation, at constant asperity pressure. Therefore, transport properties such as permeability, resistivity, thermal conductivity, etc. are constant, to the same degree of approximation, at constant asperity pressure. For these properties, the asperity pressure is, very accurately, the effective pressure, Pc. Using this model, we find that the

  11. Solar radiation pressure model for the relay satellite of SELENE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kubo-Oka, T.; Sengoku, A.

    1999-09-01

    A new radiation pressure model of the relay satellite of SELENE has been developed. The shape of the satellite was assumed to be a combination of a regular octagonal pillar and a column. Radiation forces acting on each part of the spacecraft were calculated independently and summed vectorially to obtain the mean acceleration of the satellite center of mass. We incorporated this new radiation pressure model into the orbit analysis software GEODYN-II and simulated the tracking data reduction process of the relay satellite. We compared two models: one is the new radiation pressure model developed in this work and the other a so-called "cannonball model" where the shape of the satellite is assumed to be a sphere. By the analysis of simulated two-way Doppler tracking data, we found that the new radiation pressure model reduces the observation residuals compared to the cannonball model. Moreover, we can decrease errors in the estimated lunar gravity field coefficients significantly by use of the new radiation pressure model.

  12. Risk, prevention and treatment of pressure ulcers--nursing staff knowledge and documentation.

    PubMed

    Gunningberg, L; Lindholm, C; Carlsson, M; Sjödén, P O

    2001-01-01

    The aims were to investigate (i) registered nurses' and nursing assistants' knowledge of risk, prevention and treatment of pressure ulcer before implementing a system for risk assessment and pressure ulcer classification for patients with hip fracture (ii) interventions documented in the patient's records by registered nurses, and (iii) to what extent reported and documented interventions accord with the Swedish quality guidelines. Nursing staff (n=85) completed a questionnaire, and patient's records (n=55) were audited retrospectively. The majority of the nursing staff reported that they performed risk assessment when caring for a patient with hip fracture. These risk assessments were, however, not comprehensive. The most frequently reported preventive interventions were repositioning, use of lotion, mattresses/overlays and cushions for the heels. These interventions were to some extent documented in the patient's records. Nutritional support, reduction of shear and friction, hygiene and skin moisture, and patient's education were reported to a small extent and not documented at all. The Swedish quality guidelines regarding prevention and treatment of pressure ulcers were not fully implemented in clinical practice. It was concluded that nursing staff's knowledge and documentation of risk, prevention and treatment of pressure ulcers for patients with hip fractures could be improved.

  13. Cryogenic Pressure Control Modeling for Ellipsoidal Space Tanks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lopez, Alfredo; Grayson, Gary D.; Chandler, Frank O.; Hastings, Leon J.; Heyadat, Ali

    2007-01-01

    A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to simulate pressure control of an ellipsoidal-shaped liquid hydrogen tank under external heating in normal gravity. Pressure control is provided by an axial jet thermodynamic vent system (TVS) centered within the vessel that injects cooler liquid into the tank, mixing the contents and reducing tank pressure. The two-phase cryogenic tank model considers liquid hydrogen in its own vapor with liquid density varying with temperature only and a fully compressible ullage. The axisymmetric model is developed using a custom version of the commercially available FLOW-31) software. Quantitative model validation is ,provided by engineering checkout tests performed at Marshall Space Flight Center in 1999 in support of the Solar Thermal Upper Stage_ Technology Demonstrator (STUSTD) program. The engineering checkout tests provide cryogenic tank self-pressurization test data at various heat leaks and tank fill levels. The predicted self-pressurization rates, ullage and liquid temperatures at discrete locations within the STUSTD tank are in good agreement with test data. The work presented here advances current CFD modeling capabilities for cryogenic pressure control and helps develop a low cost CFD-based design process for space hardware.

  14. Validity of pressure ulcer risk assessment scales; Cubbin and Jackson, Braden, and Douglas scale.

    PubMed

    Jun Seongsook, R N; Jeong Ihnsook, R N; Lee Younghee, R N

    2004-02-01

    This study was to compare the validity of three pressure ulcer risk tools: Cubbin and Jackson, Braden, and Douglas scales. Data were collected three times per week from 48 to 72 h after admission based on the three pressure ulcer risk assessment scales and skin assessment tool developed by the Panel for the Prediction and Prevention of Pressure Ulcers (1994) from 112 intensive care unit (ICU) patients in a educational hospital Ulsan, Korea during December 11, 2000 to February 10, 2001. When a patient developed a pressure ulcer at the time of assessment, the patient was classified into 'pressure ulcer group', and when patients did not have a pressure ulcer until they died, moved to other wards or were discharged from the hospital, they were classified into 'not pressure ulcer group'. Four indices of validity and area under the curves (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) were calculated. Based on the cut-off point presented by the developer, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value were as follows: Cubbin and Jackson scale: 89%, 61%, 51%, 92%, respectively, Braden scale: 97%, 26%, 37%, 95%, respectively, and Douglas scale: 100%, 18%, 34%, 100%, respectively. AUCs of ROC curve were 0.826 for Cubbin and Jackson, 0.707 for Braden, and 0.791 for Douglas. Overall, the Cubbin and Jackson scale showed the best validity among scales tested and we recommended it for this ICU.

  15. Pressure transient modeling of a fractured geothermal reservior

    SciTech Connect

    Robinson, B.A.

    1990-01-01

    A fracture network model has been developed to simulate transient fluid flow behavior in a fractured rock mass. Included is a pressure-dependent aperture submodel to simulate behavior often seen in fractured systems. The model is used to simulate data from the Fenton Hill Hot Dry Rock (HDR) geothermal reservoir. Both low-pressure/low-flow-rate and high-pressure/high-flow-rate transient data are adequately simulated. The model parameters obtained suggest ways in which the model can be refined to achieve even more realistic fits to the data. The model is then used to demonstrate more efficient operating modes than the two-well circulating mode usually proposed for HDR reservoirs. 11 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  16. Microscopic pressure-cooker model for studying molecules in confinement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santamaria, Ruben; Adamowicz, Ludwik; Rosas-Acevedo, Hortensia

    2015-04-01

    A model for a system of a finite number of molecules in confinement is presented and expressions for determining the temperature, pressure, and volume of the system are derived. The present model is a generalisation of the Zwanzig-Langevin model because it includes pressure effects in the system. It also has general validity, preserves the ergodic hypothesis, and provides a formal framework for previous studies of hydrogen clusters in confinement. The application of the model is illustrated by an investigation of a set of prebiotic compounds exposed to varying pressure and temperature. The simulations performed within the model involve the use of a combination of molecular dynamics and density functional theory methods implemented on a computer system with a mixed CPU-GPU architecture.

  17. Thresholds for Diagnosing Hypertension Based on Automated Office Blood Pressure Measurements and Cardiovascular Risk.

    PubMed

    Myers, Martin G; Kaczorowski, Janusz; Paterson, J Michael; Dolovich, Lisa; Tu, Karen

    2015-09-01

    The risk of cardiovascular events in relation to blood pressure is largely based on readings taken with a mercury sphygmomanometer in populations which differ from those of today in terms of hypertension severity and drug therapy. Given replacement of the mercury sphygmomanometer with electronic devices, we sought to determine the blood pressure threshold for a significant increase in cardiovascular risk using a fully automated device, which takes multiple readings with the subject resting quietly alone. Participants were 3627 community-dwelling residents aged >65 years untreated for hypertension. Automated office blood pressure readings were obtained in a community pharmacy with subjects seated and undisturbed. This method for recording blood pressure produces similar readings in different settings, including a pharmacy and family doctor's office providing the above procedures are followed. Subjects were followed for a mean (SD) of 4.9 (1.0) years for fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) were computed for 10 mm Hg increments in blood pressure (mm Hg) using Cox proportional hazards regression and the blood pressure category with the lowest event rate as the reference category. A total of 271 subjects experienced a cardiovascular event. There was a significant (P=0.02) increase in the hazard ratio of 1.66 (1.09, 2.54) at a systolic blood pressure of 135 to 144 and 1.72 (1.21, 2.45; P=0.003) at a diastolic blood pressure of 80 to 89. A significant (P=0.03) increase in hazard ratio of 1.73 (1.04, 2.86) occurred with a pulse pressure of 80 to 89. These findings are consistent with a threshold of 135/85 for diagnosing hypertension in older subjects using automated office blood pressure.

  18. CFD Modeling of Helium Pressurant Effects on Cryogenic Tank Pressure Rise Rates in Normal Gravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grayson, Gary; Lopez, Alfredo; Chandler, Frank; Hastings, Leon; Hedayat, Ali; Brethour, James

    2007-01-01

    A recently developed computational fluid dynamics modeling capability for cryogenic tanks is used to simulate both self-pressurization from external heating and also depressurization from thermodynamic vent operation. Axisymmetric models using a modified version of the commercially available FLOW-3D software are used to simulate actual physical tests. The models assume an incompressible liquid phase with density that is a function of temperature only. A fully compressible formulation is used for the ullage gas mixture that contains both condensable vapor and a noncondensable gas component. The tests, conducted at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, include both liquid hydrogen and nitrogen in tanks with ullage gas mixtures of each liquid's vapor and helium. Pressure and temperature predictions from the model are compared to sensor measurements from the tests and a good agreement is achieved. This further establishes the accuracy of the developed FLOW-3D based modeling approach for cryogenic systems.

  19. Pressure pulsation in roller pumps: a validated lumped parameter model.

    PubMed

    Moscato, Francesco; Colacino, Francesco M; Arabia, Maurizio; Danieli, Guido A

    2008-11-01

    During open-heart surgery roller pumps are often used to keep the circulation of blood through the patient body. They present numerous key features, but they suffer from several limitations: (a) they normally deliver uncontrolled pulsatile inlet and outlet pressure; (b) blood damage appears to be more than that encountered with centrifugal pumps. A lumped parameter mathematical model of a roller pump (Sarns 7000, Terumo CVS, Ann Arbor, MI, USA) was developed to dynamically simulate pressures at the pump inlet and outlet in order to clarify the uncontrolled pulsation mechanism. Inlet and outlet pressures obtained by the mathematical model have been compared with those measured in various operating conditions: different rollers' rotating speed, different tube occlusion rates, and different clamping degree at the pump inlet and outlet. Model results agree with measured pressure waveforms, whose oscillations are generated by the tube compression/release mechanism during the rollers' engaging and disengaging phases. Average Euclidean Error (AEE) was 20mmHg and 33mmHg for inlet and outlet pressure estimates, respectively. The normalized AEE never exceeded 0.16. The developed model can be exploited for designing roller pumps with improved performances aimed at reducing the undesired pressure pulsation.

  20. Model of a stationary microwave argon discharge at atmospheric pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Zhelyazkov, I.; Pencheva, M.; Benova, E.

    2008-03-19

    The many applications of microwave gas discharges at atmospheric pressure in various fields of science, technology and medicine require an adequate model of these discharges. Such a model is based on the electromagnetic wave's propagation properties and on the elementary processes in the discharge bulk. In contrast to the microwave discharges at low-gas pressures, where many elementary processes might be ignored because of their negligible contribution to the electron and heavy particle's balance equations, for such discharges at atmospheric pressure the consideration of a large number of collisional processes is mandatory. For the build of a successful discharge-column model one needs three important quantities, notably the power {theta} necessary for sustaining an electron - ion pair, electron - neutral collision frequency for momentum transfer v{sub en}, and gas temperature T{sub g}. The first two key parameters are obtained by a collisional-radiative model of the argon at atmospheric pressure, while the microwave frequency {omega}/2{pi} = 2.45 GHz, plasma column radius R, gas pressure p and gas temperature T{sub g} are fixed external parameters determined by the experimental conditions. Here, we present a model of a capillary argon microwave plasma column with a length L {approx_equal} 14 cm, sustained by wave power of 110 W - the model yields the longitudinal distributions of the plasma density, expended wave power, wave electric field magnitude, and complex wave number.

  1. Modeling of Low Pressure Compaction and Mesoscale Localization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roessig, Keith M.; Gonthier, Keith A.; Klomfass, Arno

    2004-07-01

    The compaction, ignition and deflagration of granular HMX have been widely studied. The bulk pressure within strong compaction waves is typically well above the HMX yield strength resulting in almost complete material consolidation. As such, bulk pressure dependent burn models can reasonably predict ignition and combustion for strong waves. However, long duration, low amplitude bulk pressure waves are much more difficult to characterize as stress fluctuations become increasingly important for ignition. Continuum models have recently been used to better predict ignition based on thermalization of bulk dissipated energy at the grain scale, but they typically do not account for the influence of mesoscale structure on the low pressure loading response. This work experimentally examines the influence of initial grain size on both the bulk quasistatic and dynamic loading behavior of granular HMX.

  2. Unsteady pressure loads in a generic high speed engine model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parrott, Tony L.; Jones, Michael G.; Thurlow, Ernie M.

    1992-01-01

    Unsteady pressure loads were measured along the top interior wall of a generic high-speed engine (GHSE) model undergoing performance tests in the combustion-Heated Scramjet Test Facility at the Langley Research Center. Flow to the model inlet was simulated at 72000 ft and a flight Mach number of 4. The inlet Mach number was 3.5 with a total temperature and pressure of 1640 R and 92 psia. The unsteady pressure loads were measured with 5 piezoresistive gages, recessed into the wall 4 to 12 gage diameters to reduce incident heat flux to the diaphragms, and distributed from the inlet to the combustor. Contributors to the unsteady pressure loads included boundary layer turbulence, combustion noise, and transients generated by unstart loads. Typical turbulent boundary layer rms pressures in the inlet ranged from 133 dB in the inlet to 181 dB in the combustor over the frequency range from 0 to 5 kHz. Downstream of the inlet exist, combustion noise was shown to dominate boundary layer turbulence noise at increased heat release rates. Noise levels in the isolator section increased by 15 dB when the fuel-air ratio was increased from 0.37 to 0.57 of the stoichiometric ratio. Transient pressure disturbances associated with engine unstarts were measured in the inlet and have an upstream propagation speed of about 7 ft/sec and pressure jumps of at least 3 psia.

  3. Accurate pressure gradient calculations in hydrostatic atmospheric models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carroll, John J.; Mendez-Nunez, Luis R.; Tanrikulu, Saffet

    1987-01-01

    A method for the accurate calculation of the horizontal pressure gradient acceleration in hydrostatic atmospheric models is presented which is especially useful in situations where the isothermal surfaces are not parallel to the vertical coordinate surfaces. The present method is shown to be exact if the potential temperature lapse rate is constant between the vertical pressure integration limits. The technique is applied to both the integration of the hydrostatic equation and the computation of the slope correction term in the horizontal pressure gradient. A fixed vertical grid and a dynamic grid defined by the significant levels in the vertical temperature distribution are employed.

  4. Pressure ulcer prevalence, incidence and associated risk factors in the community.

    PubMed

    Oot-Giromini, B A

    1993-09-01

    This study examined the prevalence and incidence of pressure ulcers as well as associated risk factors in the community. By using the Web of Causation and the Braden conceptual schema, barriers to effective interventions were identified and analyzed. The Web of Causation for pressure ulcer development includes socioeconomic factors and personal belief systems. It also includes the following risk factors: mobility, activity, moisture, nutrition, friction, shear, and altered sensory perception. There were 103 participants in this study. Data gathered by public health nurses included occurrence, risk assessment score, and demographics. Significant demographics for the pressure ulcer group included age greater than 70 years and diagnoses related to altered mobility, activity, and circulatory status. Pressure ulcer patients who were incontinent accounted for 73% of the total, with urinary incontinence accounting for 33%. There were 1.4 ulcers per patient. Most of the ulcers (78%) occurred on the sacral/coccygeal area and were either Stage II or Stage III. The prevalence rate of pressure ulcers in the community was 29% and the incidence rate was 16.5%.

  5. Assessing Predictive Validity of Pressure Ulcer Risk Scales- A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    PubMed Central

    PARK, Seong-Hi; LEE, Hea Shoon

    2016-01-01

    Background: The purpose of this study was to present a scientific reason for pressure ulcer risk scales: Cubbin& Jackson modified Braden, Norton, and Waterlow, as a nursing diagnosis tool by utilizing predictive validity of pressure sores. Methods: Articles published between 1966 and 2013 from periodicals indexed in the Ovid Medline, Embase, CINAHL, KoreaMed, NDSL, and other databases were selected using the key word “pressure ulcer”. QUADAS-II was applied for assessment for internal validity of the diagnostic studies. Selected studies were analyzed using meta-analysis with MetaDisc 1.4. Results: Seventeen diagnostic studies with high methodological quality, involving 5,185 patients, were included. In the results of the meta-analysis, sROC AUC of Braden, Norton, and Waterflow scale was over 0.7, showing moderate predictive validity, but they have limited interpretation due to significant differences between studies. In addition, Waterlow scale is insufficient as a screening tool owing to low sensitivity compared with other scales. Conclusion: The contemporary pressure ulcer risk scale is not suitable for uninform practice on patients under standardized criteria. Therefore, in order to provide more effective nursing care for bedsores, a new or modified pressure ulcer risk scale should be developed upon strength and weaknesses of existing tools. PMID:27114977

  6. Prediction of mean arterial blood pressure with linear stochastic models.

    PubMed

    Genc, Sahika

    2011-01-01

    A model-based approach that integrates known portion of the cardiovascular system and unknown portion through a parameter estimation to predict evolution of the mean arterial pressure is considered. The unknown portion corresponds to the neural portion that acts like a controller that takes corrective actions to regulate the arterial blood pressure at a constant level. The input to the neural part is the arterial pressure and output is the sympathetic nerve activity. In this model, heart rate is considered a proxy for sympathetic nerve activity. The neural portion is modeled as a linear discrete-time system with random coefficients. The performance of the model is tested on a case study of acute hypotensive episodes (AHEs) on PhysioNet data. TPRs and FPRs improve as more data becomes available during estimation period.

  7. Awareness and Knowledge of Cardiovascular Risk through Blood Pressure and Cholesterol Testing in College Freshmen

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Melnyk, J. A.; Panza, G.; Zaleski, A.; Taylor, B.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, yet knowledge of CVD risk factors is surprisingly low in college students. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness of an individualized blood pressure, cholesterol, and CVD education intervention on college freshmen. Methods:…

  8. Long range Ising model for credit risk modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molins, Jordi; Vives, Eduard

    2005-07-01

    Within the framework of maximum entropy principle we show that the finite-size long-range Ising model is the adequate model for the description of homogeneous credit portfolios and the computation of credit risk when default correlations between the borrowers are included. The exact analysis of the model suggest that when the correlation increases a first-order-like transition may occur inducing a sudden risk increase.

  9. The Nursing Diagnosis of risk for pressure ulcer: content validation 1

    PubMed Central

    dos Santos, Cássia Teixeira; Almeida, Miriam de Abreu; Lucena, Amália de Fátima

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: to validate the content of the new nursing diagnosis, termed risk for pressure ulcer. Method: the content validation with a sample made up of 24 nurses who were specialists in skin care from six different hospitals in the South and Southeast of Brazil. Data collection took place electronically, through an instrument constructed using the SurveyMonkey program, containing a title, definition, and 19 risk factors for the nursing diagnosis. The data were analyzed using Fehring's method and descriptive statistics. The project was approved by a Research Ethics Committee. Results: title, definition and seven risk factors were validated as "very important": physical immobilization, pressure, surface friction, shearing forces, skin moisture, alteration in sensation and malnutrition. Among the other risk factors, 11 were validated as "important": dehydration, obesity, anemia, decrease in serum albumin level, prematurity, aging, smoking, edema, impaired circulation, and decrease in oxygenation and in tissue perfusion. The risk factor of hyperthermia was discarded. Conclusion: the content validation of these components of the nursing diagnosis corroborated the importance of the same, being able to facilitate the nurse's clinical reasoning and guiding clinical practice in the preventive care for pressure ulcers. PMID:27305182

  10. Modeling a Transient Pressurization with Active Cooling Sizing Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guzik, Monica C.; Plachta, David W.; Elchert, Justin P.

    2011-01-01

    As interest in the area of in-space zero boil-off cryogenic propellant storage develops, the need to visualize and quantify cryogen behavior during ventless tank self-pressurization and subsequent cool-down with active thermal control has become apparent. During the course of a mission, such as the launch ascent phase, there are periods that power to the active cooling system will be unavailable. In addition, because it is not feasible to install vacuum jackets on large propellant tanks, as is typically done for in-space cryogenic applications for science payloads, instances like the launch ascent heating phase are important to study. Numerous efforts have been made to characterize cryogenic tank pressurization during ventless cryogen storage without active cooling, but few tools exist to model this behavior in a user-friendly environment for general use, and none exist that quantify the marginal active cooling system size needed for power down periods to manage tank pressure response once active cooling is resumed. This paper describes the Transient pressurization with Active Cooling Tool (TACT), which is based on a ventless three-lump homogeneous thermodynamic self-pressurization model1 coupled with an active cooling system estimator. TACT has been designed to estimate the pressurization of a heated but unvented cryogenic tank, assuming an unavailable power period followed by a given cryocooler heat removal rate. By receiving input data on the tank material and geometry, propellant initial conditions, and passive and transient heating rates, a pressurization and recovery profile can be found, which establishes the time needed to return to a designated pressure. This provides the ability to understand the effect that launch ascent and unpowered mission segments have on the size of an active cooling system. A sample of the trends found show that an active cooling system sized for twice the steady state heating rate would results in a reasonable time for tank

  11. Modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Koutsoumanis, Konstantinos

    2009-02-01

    In this study, I describe a systematic approach for modeling food spoilage in microbial risk assessment that is based on the incorporation of kinetic spoilage modeling in exposure assessment by combining data and models for the specific spoilage organisms (SSO: fraction of the total microflora responsible for spoilage) with those for pathogens. The structure of the approach is presented through an exposure assessment application for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in ground beef. The proposed approach allows for identifying spoiled products at the time of consumption by comparing the estimated level of SSO (pseudomonads) with the spoilage level (level of SSO at which spoilage is observed). The results of the application indicate that ignoring spoilage in risk assessment could lead to significant overestimations of risk.

  12. Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas explored using a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samuell, Cameron M.; Corr, Cormac S.

    2016-02-01

    Low-pressure hydrogen plasmas have found applications in a variety of technology areas including fusion, neutral beam injection and material processing applications. To better understand these discharges, a global model is developed to predict the behaviour of electrons, ground-state atomic and molecular hydrogen, three positive ion species (H+, \\text{H}2+ , and \\text{H}3+ ), a single negative ion species (H-), and fourteen vibrationally excited states of molecular hydrogen ({{\\text{H}}2}≤ft(\\upsilon =1\\right. -14)). The model is validated by comparison with experimental results from a planar inductively coupled GEC reference cell and subsequently applied to the MAGPIE linear helicon reactor. The MAGPIE reactor is investigated for a range of pressures from 1 to 100 mTorr and powers up to 5 kW. With increasing power between 50 W and 5 kW at 10 mTorr the density of all charged species increases as well as the dissociative fraction while the electron temperature remains almost constant at around 3 eV. For gas pressures from 1-100 mTorr at an input power of 1 kW, the electron density remains almost constant, the electron temperature and dissociative fraction decreases, while \\text{H}3+ density increases in density and also dominates amongst ion species. Across these power and pressure scans, electronegativity remains approximately constant at around 2.5%. The power and pressure determines the dominant ion species in the plasma with \\text{H}3+ observed to dominate at high pressures and low powers whereas H+ tends to be dominant at low pressures and high powers. A sensitivity analysis is used to demonstrate how experimental parameters (power, pressure, reactor wall material, geometry etc) influence individual species’ density as well as the electron temperature. Physical reactor changes including the length, radius and wall recombination coefficient are found to have the largest influence on outputs obtained from the model.

  13. Uncertainty in surface water flood risk modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, J. B.; Martin, D. N.; Roberts, E.; Domuah, R.

    2009-04-01

    Two thirds of the flooding that occurred in the UK during summer 2007 was as a result of surface water (otherwise known as ‘pluvial') rather than river or coastal flooding. In response, the Environment Agency and Interim Pitt Reviews have highlighted the need for surface water risk mapping and warning tools to identify, and prepare for, flooding induced by heavy rainfall events. This need is compounded by the likely increase in rainfall intensities due to climate change. The Association of British Insurers has called for the Environment Agency to commission nationwide flood risk maps showing the relative risk of flooding from all sources. At the wider European scale, the recently-published EC Directive on the assessment and management of flood risks will require Member States to evaluate, map and model flood risk from a variety of sources. As such, there is now a clear and immediate requirement for the development of techniques for assessing and managing surface water flood risk across large areas. This paper describes an approach for integrating rainfall, drainage network and high-resolution topographic data using Flowroute™, a high-resolution flood mapping and modelling platform, to produce deterministic surface water flood risk maps. Information is provided from UK case studies to enable assessment and validation of modelled results using historical flood information and insurance claims data. Flowroute was co-developed with flood scientists at Cambridge University specifically to simulate river dynamics and floodplain inundation in complex, congested urban areas in a highly computationally efficient manner. It utilises high-resolution topographic information to route flows around individual buildings so as to enable the prediction of flood depths, extents, durations and velocities. As such, the model forms an ideal platform for the development of surface water flood risk modelling and mapping capabilities. The 2-dimensional component of Flowroute employs

  14. Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

    PubMed

    Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

    2012-03-15

    Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure.

  15. A simplified model of high pressure spray combustion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mao, C.-P.; Wakamatsu, Y.; Faeth, G. M.

    1981-01-01

    A simplified model of high-pressure spray combustion is examined. The analysis relies on a kappa-epsilon-g turbulence model in conjunction with the locally homogeneous flow (LHF) approximation of two-phase flow, which implies infinitely fast transport rates between the phases. High-pressure phenomena near the thermodynamic critical point are treated using the Redlich-Kwong equation of state. Predictions are compared with existing measurements of spray boundaries in a pressure-atomized n-pentane spray (Sauter mean diameter, approximately 30 microns) burning in stagnant air at 3, 6, and 9 MPa. The LHF model overestimates the rate of development of the flow, yielding spray lengths roughly 20% shorter than measured. Calibrated drop-life-history calculations suggest that finite interphase transport rates are the primary cause of the discrepancy.

  16. Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Pressures on N and P Loads and Potential Eutrophication Risk at Regional Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dupas, R.; Gascuel-odoux, C.; Delmas, M.; Moatar, F.

    2014-12-01

    Excessive nutrient loading of freshwater bodies results in increased eutrophication risk worldwide. The processes controlling N/P transfer in agricultural landscapes are well documented through scientific studies conducted in intensively monitored catchments. However, managers need tools to assess water quality and evaluate the contribution of agriculture to eutrophication at regional scales, including unmonitored or poorly monitored areas. To this end, we present an assessment framework which includes: i) a mass-balance model to estimate diffuse N/P transfer and retention and ii) indicators based on N:P:Si molar ratios to assess potential eutrophication risk from external loads. The model, called Nutting (Dupas et al., 2013), integrates variables for both detailed description of agricultural pressures (N surplus, soil P content) and characterisation of physical attributes of catchments (including spatial attributes). It was calibrated on 160 catchments, and applied to 2210 unmonitored headwater bodies in France (Dupas et al., under review). N and P retention represented 53% and 95% of soil N and P surplus, respectively, and was mainly controlled by runoff and an index characterising infiltration/runoff properties. According to our estimates, diffuse agricultural sources represented a mean of 97% of N loads and N exceeded Si in 93% of the catchments, whilst they represented 46% of P loads and P exceeded Si in 26-65% of the catchments. Estimated eutrophication risk was highly sensitive to assumptions about P bioavailability, hence the range of headwaters potentially at risk spanned 26-63% of the catchments, depending on assumptions. To reduce this uncertainty, we recommend introducing P bioavailability tests in water monitoring programs, especially in sensitive areas. Dupas R et al. Assessing N emissions in surface water at the national level: comparison of country-wide vs. regionalized models. Sci Total Environ 2013; 443: 152-62. Dupas R et al. Assessing the impact

  17. Tyre pressure monitoring using a dynamical model-based estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reina, Giulio; Gentile, Angelo; Messina, Arcangelo

    2015-04-01

    In the last few years, various control systems have been investigated in the automotive field with the aim of increasing the level of safety and stability, avoid roll-over, and customise handling characteristics. One critical issue connected with their integration is the lack of state and parameter information. As an example, vehicle handling depends to a large extent on tyre inflation pressure. When inflation pressure drops, handling and comfort performance generally deteriorate. In addition, it results in an increase in fuel consumption and in a decrease in lifetime. Therefore, it is important to keep tyres within the normal inflation pressure range. This paper introduces a model-based approach to estimate online tyre inflation pressure. First, basic vertical dynamic modelling of the vehicle is discussed. Then, a parameter estimation framework for dynamic analysis is presented. Several important vehicle parameters including tyre inflation pressure can be estimated using the estimated states. This method aims to work during normal driving using information from standard sensors only. On the one hand, the driver is informed about the inflation pressure and he is warned for sudden changes. On the other hand, accurate estimation of the vehicle states is available as possible input to onboard control systems.

  18. A knowledge-based modeling for plantar pressure image reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Ostadabbas, Sarah; Nourani, Mehrdad; Saeed, Adnan; Yousefi, Rasoul; Pompeo, Matthew

    2014-10-01

    It is known that prolonged pressure on the plantar area is one of the main factors in developing foot ulcers. With current technology, electronic pressure monitoring systems can be placed as an insole into regular shoes to continuously monitor the plantar area and provide evidence on ulcer formation process as well as insight for proper orthotic footwear design. The reliability of these systems heavily depends on the spatial resolution of their sensor platforms. However, due to the cost and energy constraints, practical wireless in-shoe pressure monitoring systems have a limited number of sensors, i.e., typically K < 10. In this paper, we present a knowledge-based regression model (SCPM) to reconstruct a spatially continuous plantar pressure image from a small number of pressure sensors. This model makes use of high-resolution pressure data collected clinically to train a per-subject regression function. SCPM is shown to outperform all other tested interpolation methods for K < 60 sensors, with less than one-third of the error for K = 10 sensors. SCPM bridges the gap between the technological capability and medical need and can play an important role in the adoption of sensing insole for a wide range of medical applications.

  19. Suicide risk assessment and suicide risk formulation: essential components of the therapeutic risk management model.

    PubMed

    Silverman, Morton M

    2014-09-01

    Suicide and other suicidal behaviors are often associated with psychiatric disorders and dysfunctions. Therefore, psychiatrists have significant opportunities to identify at-risk individuals and offer treatment to reduce that risk. Although a suicide risk assessment is a core competency requirement, many clinical psychiatrists lack the requisite training and skills to appropriately assess for suicide risk. Moreover, the standard of care requires psychiatrists to foresee the possibility that a patient might engage in suicidal behavior, hence to conduct a suicide risk formulation sufficient to guide triage and treatment planning. Based on data collected via a suicide risk assessment, a suicide risk formulation is a process whereby the psychiatrist forms a judgment about a patient's foreseeable risk of suicidal behavior in order to inform triage decisions, safety and treatment planning, and interventions to reduce risk. This paper addresses the components of this process in the context of the model for therapeutic risk management of the suicidal patient developed at the Veterans Integrated Service Network (VISN) 19 Mental Illness Research, Education and Clinical Center by Wortzel et al.

  20. Pulse pressure is an independent risk factor of cardiovascular disease in renal transplant patients.

    PubMed

    Fernández-Fresnedo, G; Escallada, R; Rodrigo, E; de Francisco, A L M; Sanz de Castro, S; Ruiz, J C; Piñera, C; Cotorruelo, J G; Arias, M

    2003-08-01

    Elevated pulse pressure in the general population has been shown to be associated with cardiovascular disease, which is the main cause of death in renal transplant patients. We investigated the effects that a wide pulse pressure has on cardiovascular disease after renal transplantation in a cohort of 532 transplant patients with functioning grafts for more than one year. Patients were classified into two groups depending on whether the one-year pulse pressure was less than or greater than 65 mm Hg. We analyzed patient survival, posttransplant cardiovascular disease and principle causes of death. Five- and ten-year patient survival were lower among the group with higher pulse pressures. The main cause of death was vascular disease in both groups. The presence of posttransplant cardiovascular disease was higher among the group with higher pulse pressures (RR=1.73). In addition, the incidence of an elevated pulse pressure was directly associated with recipient age and posttransplant diabetes mellitus. In conclusion, pulse pressure represents an independent risk factor for increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in renal transplant patients.

  1. Exaggerated blood pressure response during the exercise treadmill test as a risk factor for hypertension

    PubMed Central

    Lima, S.G.; Albuquerque, M.F.P.M.; Oliveira, J.R.M.; Ayres, C.F.J.; Cunha, J.E.G.; Oliveira, D.F.; Lemos, R.R.; Souza, M.B.R.; Silva, O. Barbosa e

    2013-01-01

    Exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) during the exercise treadmill test (ETT) has been considered to be a risk factor for hypertension. The relationship of polymorphisms of the renin-angiotensin system gene with hypertension has not been established. Our objective was to evaluate whether EBPR during exercise is a clinical marker for hypertension. The study concerned a historical cohort of normotensive individuals. The exposed individuals were those who presented EBPR. At the end of the observation period (41.7 months = 3.5 years), the development of hypertension was analyzed within the two groups. Genetic polymorphisms and blood pressure behavior were assessed as independent variables, together with the classical risk factors for hypertension. The I/D gene polymorphism of the angiotensin-converting enzyme and M235T of angiotensinogen were ruled out as risk factors for hypertension. EBPR during ETT is not an independent influence on the chances of developing hypertension. No differences were observed between the hypertensive and normotensive individuals regarding gender (P = 0.655), skin color (P = 0.636), family history of hypertension (P = 0.225), diabetes mellitus (P = 0.285), or hypertriglyceridemia (P = 0.734). The risk of developing hypertension increased with increasing body mass index (BMI) and advancing age. The risk factors, which independently influenced the development of hypertension, were age and BMI. EBPR did not constitute an independent risk factor for hypertension and is probably a preclinical phase in the spectrum of normotension and hypertension. PMID:23598646

  2. High Pressure Air Jet in the Endoscopic Preparation Room: Risk of Noise Exposure on Occupational Health

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Lung-Sheng; Wu, Cheng-Kun

    2015-01-01

    After high-level disinfection of gastrointestinal endoscopes, they are hung to dry in order to prevent residual water droplets impact on patient health. To allow for quick drying and clinical reuse, some endoscopic units use a high pressure air jet (HPAJ) to remove the water droplets on the endoscopes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the excessive noise exposure with the use of HPAJ in endoscopic preparation room and to investigate the risk to occupational health. Noise assessment was taken during 7 automatic endoscopic reprocessors (AERs) and combined with/without HPAJ use over an 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA). Analytical procedures of the NIOSH and the ISO for noise-induced hearing loss were estimated to develop analytic models. The peak of the noise spectrum of combined HPAJ and 7 AERs was significantly higher than that of the 7 AERs alone (108.3 ± 1.36 versus 69.3 ± 3.93 dBA, P < 0.0001). The risk of hearing loss (HL > 2.5 dB) was 2.15% at 90 dBA, 11.6% at 95 dBA, and 51.3% at 100 dBA. The odds ratio was 49.1 (95% CI: 11.9 to 203.6). The noise generated by the HPAJ to work over TWA seriously affected the occupational health and safety of those working in an endoscopic preparation room. PMID:25710009

  3. Modeling the pharyngeal pressure during adult nasal high flow therapy.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Haribalan; Spence, Callum J T; Tawhai, Merryn H

    2015-12-01

    Subjects receiving nasal high flow (NHF) via wide-bore nasal cannula may experience different levels of positive pressure depending on the individual response to NHF. In this study, airflow in the nasal airway during NHF-assisted breathing is simulated and nasopharyngeal airway pressure numerically computed, to determine whether the relationship between NHF and pressure can be described by a simple equation. Two geometric models are used for analysis. In the first, 3D airway geometry is reconstructed from computed tomography images of an adult nasal airway. For the second, a simplified geometric model is derived that has the same cross-sectional area as the complex model, but is more readily amenable to analysis. Peak airway pressure is correlated as a function of nasal valve area, nostril area and cannula flow rate, for NHF rates of 20, 40 and 60 L/min. Results show that airway pressure is related by a power law to NHF rate, valve area, and nostril area.

  4. The effect of changes in barometric pressure on the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms.

    PubMed

    Landers, A T; Narotam, P K; Govender, S T; van Dellen, J R

    1997-06-01

    Several meteorological variables have been linked with an altered incidence of cerebrovascular disease. In particular, we had noticed that, following abrupt changes in weather, patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) often presented in groups. This study was undertaken to determine whether changes in barometric pressure would be an important factor. A retrospective analysis of a two year period was carried out. Daily mean, peak and trough atmospheric pressures had been recorded independently by a weather bureau. Of the 157 patients with SAH due to a berry aneurysm, confirmed by CT and angiography, 60 were entered into the study. Patients residing outside the weather bureau region (n = 86), or where there was uncertainty of their day of ictus (n = 11), were excluded. Daily peak to trough pressure changes and mean monthly pressure fluctuations showed no association with an increased risk of SAH. However, a significant relationship between the incidence of onset of symptoms indicative of a rupture of the aneurysm and a change in barometric mean pressure (BMP) of > 10 hectapascals from the previous day was found (p = 0.0247). The calculated odds ratio of sustaining a SAH with this associated BMP change was therefore 2.7 times with a risk of 1-13 times at a 95% confidence level (p = 0.035).

  5. Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation: Post Trial Follow-Up of Randomized Groups

    PubMed Central

    Jafar, Tazeen H.; Jehan, Imtiaz; Liang, Feng; Barbier, Sylvaine; Islam, Muhammad; Bux, Rasool; Khan, Aamir Hameed; Nadkarni, Nivedita; Poulter, Neil; Chaturvedi, Nish; Ebrahim, Shah

    2015-01-01

    Background Evidence on long term effectiveness of public health strategies for lowering blood pressure (BP) is scarce. In the Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation (COBRA) Trial, a 2 x 2 factorial, cluster randomized controlled trial, the combined home health education (HHE) and trained general practitioner (GP) intervention delivered over 2 years was more effective than no intervention (usual care) in lowering systolic BP among adults with hypertension in urban Pakistan. However, it was not clear whether the effect would be sustained after the cessation of intervention. We conducted 7 years follow-up inclusive of 5 years of post intervention period of COBRA trial participants to assess the effectiveness of the interventions on BP during extended follow-up. Methods A total of 1341 individuals 40 years or older with hypertension (systolic BP 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic BP 90 mm Hg or greater, or already receiving treatment) were followed by trained research staff masked to randomization status. BP was measured thrice with a calibrated automated device (Omron HEM-737 IntelliSense) in the sitting position after 5 minutes of rest. BP measurements were repeated after two weeks. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were used to analyze the primary outcome of change in systolic BP from baseline to 7- year follow-up. The multivariable model was adjusted for clustering, age at baseline, sex, baseline systolic and diastolic BP, and presence of diabetes. Findings After 7 years of follow-up, systolic BP levels among those randomised to combined HHE plus trained GP intervention were significantly lower (2.1 [4.1–0.1] mm Hg) compared to those randomised to usual care, (P = 0.04). Participants receiving the combined intervention compared to usual care had a greater reduction in LDL-cholesterol (2.7 [4.8 to 0.6] mg/dl. Conclusions The benefit in systolic BP reduction observed in the original cohort assigned to the combined intervention was attenuated but still

  6. Nonlinear Pressure Wave Analysis by Concentrated Mass Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishikawa, Satoshi; Kondou, Takahiro; Matsuzaki, Kenichiro

    A pressure wave propagating in a tube often changes to a shock wave because of the nonlinear effect of fluid. Analyzing this phenomenon by the finite difference method requires high computational cost. To lessen the computational cost, a concentrated mass model is proposed. This model consists of masses, connecting nonlinear springs, connecting dampers, and base support dampers. The characteristic of a connecting nonlinear spring is derived from the adiabatic change of fluid, and the equivalent mass and equivalent damping coefficient of the base support damper are derived from the equation of motion of fluid in a cylindrical tube. Pressure waves generated in a hydraulic oil tube, a sound tube and a plane-wave tube are analyzed numerically by the proposed model to confirm the validity of the model. All numerical computational results agree very well with the experimental results carried out by Okamura, Saenger and Kamakura. Especially, the numerical analysis reproduces the phenomena that a pressure wave with large amplitude propagating in a sound tube or in a plane tube changes to a shock wave. Therefore, it is concluded that the proposed model is valid for the numerical analysis of nonlinear pressure wave problem.

  7. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible.

  8. Risk management model of winter navigation operations.

    PubMed

    Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Kuzmin, Vladimir; Kujala, Pentti; Montewka, Jakub

    2016-07-15

    The wintertime maritime traffic operations in the Gulf of Finland are managed through the Finnish-Swedish Winter Navigation System. This establishes the requirements and limitations for the vessels navigating when ice covers this area. During winter navigation in the Gulf of Finland, the largest risk stems from accidental ship collisions which may also trigger oil spills. In this article, a model for managing the risk of winter navigation operations is presented. The model analyses the probability of oil spills derived from collisions involving oil tanker vessels and other vessel types. The model structure is based on the steps provided in the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and adapted into a Bayesian Network model. The results indicate that ship independent navigation and convoys are the operations with higher probability of oil spills. Minor spills are most probable, while major oil spills found very unlikely but possible. PMID:27207023

  9. Clinical Model for Suicide Risk Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kral, Michael J.; Sakinofsky, Isaac

    1994-01-01

    Presents suicide risk assessment in a two-tiered model comprising background/contextual factors and subjectivity. The subjectivity portion is formulated around Shneidman's concepts of perturbation and lethality. Discusses decision of hospital admission versus ambulatory care. Suggests that theoretically informed approach should serve both…

  10. Postural effects on intracranial pressure: modeling and clinical evaluation.

    PubMed

    Qvarlander, Sara; Sundström, Nina; Malm, Jan; Eklund, Anders

    2013-11-01

    The physiological effect of posture on intracranial pressure (ICP) is not well described. This study defined and evaluated three mathematical models describing the postural effects on ICP, designed to predict ICP at different head-up tilt angles from the supine ICP value. Model I was based on a hydrostatic indifference point for the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) system, i.e., the existence of a point in the system where pressure is independent of body position. Models II and III were based on Davson's equation for CSF absorption, which relates ICP to venous pressure, and postulated that gravitational effects within the venous system are transferred to the CSF system. Model II assumed a fully communicating venous system, and model III assumed that collapse of the jugular veins at higher tilt angles creates two separate hydrostatic compartments. Evaluation of the models was based on ICP measurements at seven tilt angles (0-71°) in 27 normal pressure hydrocephalus patients. ICP decreased with tilt angle (ANOVA: P < 0.01). The reduction was well predicted by model III (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P = 0.65), which showed excellent fit against measured ICP. Neither model I nor II adequately described the reduction in ICP (ANOVA lack-of-fit: P < 0.01). Postural changes in ICP could not be predicted based on the currently accepted theory of a hydrostatic indifference point for the CSF system, but a new model combining Davson's equation for CSF absorption and hydrostatic gradients in a collapsible venous system performed well and can be useful in future research on gravity and CSF physiology.

  11. Use of a Poroelastic Model to Predict Intramuscular Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, D. A.; Odegard, G. M.; Kaufman, K. R.

    2014-01-01

    Measurement of individual muscle tension in a clinical setting has yet to be achieved. Previous investigators have suggested that the tension in skeletal muscle, comprised of approximately 70% fluid, could be determined using interstitial muscle fluid pressure (IMP). A computational model is needed to aid in understanding IMP distribution in muscles of varying geometry and contractile states without exhaustive testing. The first aim of this study was to determine a set of transversely isotropic material properties (i.e., permeability, relaxed modulus, and drained Poisson’s ratio) for excised skeletal muscle using inverse finite element analysis with a poroelastic constitutive formulation on tension data from either longitudinal or transverse uniaxial load-relaxation tests of skeletal muscle tissue. The second aim was to compare pore pressure estimated from a model to experimental pressure measurements to assess its ability to accurately predict IMP. Results of this study indicated that skeletal muscle was transversely isotropic under load-relaxation as demonstrated by significant differences in the drained Poisson’s ratio. It was also noted that the drained Poisson’s ratios under both longitudinal and transverse loading were negative in these tests of excised muscle tissue. Pore pressure calculated with this model provided a good prediction of the development of IMP. These results point to the benefit of using a poroelastic model of skeletal muscle to predict IMP. PMID:25541627

  12. Survivorship models for estimating the risk of decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Kumar, K V; Powell, M R

    1994-07-01

    Several approaches have been used for modeling the incidence of decompression sickness (DCS) such as Hill's dose-response and logistic regression. Most of these methods do not include the time-to-onset information in the model. Survival analysis (failure time analysis) is appropriate when the time to onset of an event is of interest. The applicability of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS is illustrated by using data obtained from hypobaric chamber exposures simulating extravehicular activities (n = 426). Univariate analysis of incidence-free survival proportions were obtained for Doppler-detectable circulating microbubbles (CMB), symptoms of DCS and test aborts. A log-linear failure time regression model with 360-min half-time tissue ratio (TR) as covariate was constructed, and estimated probabilities for various TR values were calculated. Further regression analysis by including CMB status in this model showed significant improvement (p < 0.05) in the estimation of DCS over the previous model. Since DCS is dependent on the exposure pressure as well as the duration of exposure, we recommend the use of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS. PMID:7945136

  13. Risk analysis: divergent models and convergent interpretations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carnes, B. A.; Gavrilova, N.

    2001-01-01

    Material presented at a NASA-sponsored workshop on risk models for exposure conditions relevant to prolonged space flight are described in this paper. Analyses used mortality data from experiments conducted at Argonne National Laboratory on the long-term effects of external whole-body irradiation on B6CF1 mice by 60Co gamma rays and fission neutrons delivered as a single exposure or protracted over either 24 or 60 once-weekly exposures. The maximum dose considered was restricted to 1 Gy for neutrons and 10 Gy for gamma rays. Proportional hazard models were used to investigate the shape of the dose response at these lower doses for deaths caused by solid-tissue tumors and tumors of either connective or epithelial tissue origin. For protracted exposures, a significant mortality effect was detected at a neutron dose of 14 cGy and a gamma-ray dose of 3 Gy. For single exposures, radiation-induced mortality for neutrons also occurred within the range of 10-20 cGy, but dropped to 86 cGy for gamma rays. Plots of risk relative to control estimated for each observed dose gave a visual impression of nonlinearity for both neutrons and gamma rays. At least for solid-tissue tumors, male and female mortality was nearly identical for gamma-ray exposures, but mortality risks for females were higher than for males for neutron exposures. As expected, protracting the gamma-ray dose reduced mortality risks. Although curvature consistent with that observed visually could be detected by a model parameterized to detect curvature, a relative risk term containing only a simple term for total dose was usually sufficient to describe the dose response. Although detectable mortality for the three pathology end points considered typically occurred at the same level of dose, the highest risks were almost always associated with deaths caused by tumors of epithelial tissue origin.

  14. A Raster Based Approach To Solar Pressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Theodore

    2014-01-01

    The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. Which components are being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun.To determine solar pressure in the presence overlapping components, a 3D model can be used to determine which components are illuminated. A view (image) of the model as seen from the Sun shows the only contributors to solar pressure. This image can be decomposed into pixels, each of which can be treated as a non-overlapping flat plate as far as solar pressure calculations are concerned. The sums of the pressures and moments on these plates approximate the solar pressure and moments on the entire vehicle.The image rasterization technique can also be used to compute other spacecraft attributes that are dependent on attitude and geometry, including solar array power generation capability and free molecular flow drag.

  15. Validated Analytical Model of a Pressure Compensation Drip Irrigation Emitter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamshery, Pulkit; Wang, Ruo-Qian; Taylor, Katherine; Tran, Davis; Winter, Amos

    2015-11-01

    This work is focused on analytically characterizing the behavior of pressure-compensating drip emitters in order to design low-cost, low-power irrigation solutions appropriate for off-grid communities in developing countries. There are 2.5 billion small acreage farmers worldwide who rely solely on their land for sustenance. Drip, compared to flood, irrigation leads to up to 70% reduction in water consumption while increasing yields by 90% - important in countries like India which are quickly running out of water. To design a low-power drip system, there is a need to decrease the pumping pressure requirement at the emitters, as pumping power is the product of pressure and flow rate. To efficiently design such an emitter, the relationship between the fluid-structure interactions that occur in an emitter need to be understood. In this study, a 2D analytical model that captures the behavior of a common drip emitter was developed and validated through experiments. The effects of independently changing the channel depth, channel width, channel length and land height on the performance were studied. The model and the key parametric insights presented have the potential to be optimized in order to guide the design of low-pressure, clog-resistant, pressure-compensating emitters.

  16. Technology for pressure-instrumented thin airfoil models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wigley, David A.

    1988-01-01

    A novel method of airfoil model construction was developed. This Laminated Sheet technique uses 0.8 mm thick sheets of A286 containing a network of pre-formed channels which are vacuum brazed together to form the airfoil. A 6.25 percent model of the X29A canard, which has a 5 percent thick section, was built using this technique. The model contained a total of 96 pressure orifices, 56 in three chordwise rows on the upper surface and 37 in three similar rows on the lower surface. It was tested in the NASA Langley 0.3 m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Unique aerodynamic data was obtained over the full range of temperature and pressure. Part of the data was at transonic Mach numbers and flight Reynolds number. A larger two dimensional model of the NACA 64a-105 airfoil section was also fabricated. Scale up presented some problems, but a testable airfoil was fabricated.

  17. Landslide risk models for decision making.

    PubMed

    Bonachea, Jaime; Remondo, Juan; de Terán, José Ramón Díaz; González-Díez, Alberto; Cendrero, Antonio

    2009-11-01

    This contribution presents a quantitative procedure for landslide risk analysis and zoning considering hazard, exposure (or value of elements at risk), and vulnerability. The method provides the means to obtain landslide risk models (expressing expected damage due to landslides on material elements and economic activities in monetary terms, according to different scenarios and periods) useful to identify areas where mitigation efforts will be most cost effective. It allows identifying priority areas for the implementation of actions to reduce vulnerability (elements) or hazard (processes). The procedure proposed can also be used as a preventive tool, through its application to strategic environmental impact analysis (SEIA) of land-use plans. The underlying hypothesis is that reliable predictions about hazard and risk can be made using models based on a detailed analysis of past landslide occurrences in connection with conditioning factors and data on past damage. The results show that the approach proposed and the hypothesis formulated are essentially correct, providing estimates of the order of magnitude of expected losses for a given time period. Uncertainties, strengths, and shortcomings of the procedure and results obtained are discussed and potential lines of research to improve the models are indicated. Finally, comments and suggestions are provided to generalize this type of analysis.

  18. Landslide risk mapping and modeling in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, W.; Hong, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Under circumstances of global climate change, tectonic stress and human effect, landslides are among the most frequent and severely widespread natural hazards on Earth, as demonstrated in the World Atlas of Natural Hazards (McGuire et al., 2004). Every year, landslide activities cause serious economic loss as well as casualties (Róbert et al., 2005). How landslides can be monitored and predicted is an urgent research topic of the international landslide research community. Particularly, there is a lack of high quality and updated landslide risk maps and guidelines that can be employed to better mitigate and prevent landslide disasters in many emerging regions, including China (Hong, 2007). Since the 1950s, landslide events have been recorded in the statistical yearbooks, newspapers, and monographs in China. As disasters have been increasingly concerned by the government and the public, information about landslide events is becoming available from online news reports (Liu et al., 2012).This study presents multi-scale landslide risk mapping and modeling in China. At the national scale, based on historical data and practical experiences, we carry out landslide susceptibility and risk mapping by adopting a statistical approach and pattern recognition methods to construct empirical models. Over the identified landslide hot-spot areas, we further evaluate the slope-stability for each individual site (Sidle and Hirotaka, 2006), with the ultimate goal to set up a space-time multi-scale coupling system of Landslide risk mapping and modeling for landslide hazard monitoring and early warning.

  19. Risk management model in road transport systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  20. Quantitative risk modelling for new pharmaceutical compounds.

    PubMed

    Tang, Zhengru; Taylor, Mark J; Lisboa, Paulo; Dyas, Mark

    2005-11-15

    The process of discovering and developing new drugs is long, costly and risk-laden. Faced with a wealth of newly discovered compounds, industrial scientists need to target resources carefully to discern the key attributes of a drug candidate and to make informed decisions. Here, we describe a quantitative approach to modelling the risk associated with drug development as a tool for scenario analysis concerning the probability of success of a compound as a potential pharmaceutical agent. We bring together the three strands of manufacture, clinical effectiveness and financial returns. This approach involves the application of a Bayesian Network. A simulation model is demonstrated with an implementation in MS Excel using the modelling engine Crystal Ball. PMID:16257374

  1. Malignancy Risk Models for Oral Lesions

    PubMed Central

    Zarate, Ana M.; Brezzo, María M.; Secchi, Dante G.; Barra, José L.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this work was to assess risk habits, clinical and cellular phenotypes and TP53 DNA changes in oral mucosa samples from patients with Oral Potentially Malignant Disorders (OPMD), in order to create models that enable genotypic and phenotypic patterns to be obtained that determine the risk of lesions becoming malignant. Study Design: Clinical phenotypes, family history of cancer and risk habits were collected in clinical histories. TP53 gene mutation and morphometric-morphological features were studied, and multivariate models were applied. Three groups were estabished: a) oral cancer (OC) group (n=10), b) OPMD group (n=10), and c) control group (n=8). Results: An average of 50% of patients with malignancy were found to have smoking and drinking habits. A high percentage of TP53 mutations were observed in OC (30%) and OPMD (average 20%) lesions (p=0.000). The majority of these mutations were GC ? TA transversion mutations (60%). However, patients with OC presented mutations in all the exons and introns studied. Highest diagnostic accuracy (p=0.0001) was observed when incorporating alcohol and tobacco habits variables with TP53 mutations. Conclusions: Our results prove to be statistically reliable, with parameter estimates that are nearly unbiased even for small sample sizes. Models 2 and 3 were the most accurate for assessing the risk of an OPMD becoming cancerous. However, in a public health context, model 3 is the most recommended because the characteristics considered are easier and less costly to evaluate. Key words:TP53, oral potentially malignant disorders, risk factors, genotype, phenotype. PMID:23722122

  2. Explicit Pore Pressure Material Model in Carbon-Cloth Phenolic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutierrez-Lemini, Danton; Ehle, Curt

    2003-01-01

    An explicit material model that uses predicted pressure in the pores of a carbon-cloth phenolic (CCP) composite has been developed. This model is intended to be used within a finite-element model to predict phenomena specific to CCP components of solid-fuel-rocket nozzles subjected to high operating temperatures and to mechanical stresses that can be great enough to cause structural failures. Phenomena that can be predicted with the help of this model include failures of specimens in restrained-thermal-growth (RTG) tests, pocketing erosion, and ply lifting

  3. Linking family economic pressure and supportive parenting to adolescent health behaviors: two developmental pathways leading to health promoting and health risk behaviors.

    PubMed

    Kwon, Josephine A; Wickrama, K A S

    2014-07-01

    Adolescent health behaviors, especially health risk behaviors, have previously been linked to distal (i.e., family economic pressure) and proximal (i.e., parental support) contributors. However, few studies have examined both types of contributors along with considering health promoting and health risk behaviors separately. The present study investigated the influences of family economic hardship, supportive parenting as conceptualized by self-determination theory, and individual psychosocial and behavioral characteristics (i.e., mastery and delinquency, respectively) on adolescents' health promoting and health risk behaviors. We used structural equation modeling to analyze longitudinal data from a sample of Caucasian adolescent children and their mothers and fathers (N = 407, 54 % female) to examine direct and indirect effects, as well as gender symmetry and asymmetry. Findings suggest that family economic pressure contributed to adolescent mastery and delinquency through supportive parenting. Further, supportive parenting indirectly affected adolescent health risk behaviors only through delinquency, whereas supportive parenting indirectly influenced health promoting behaviors only through mastery, suggesting different developmental pathways for adolescent health risk and health promoting behaviors. Testing for gender symmetry of the full model showed that maternal and paternal parenting contributed to females' health risk behaviors directly, while maternal and paternal parenting contributed to males' health risk behaviors through delinquency. Gender symmetry was largely unsupported. The study highlights key direct and indirect pathways to adolescent health risk and health promoting behaviors within a family stress model and self-determination theory framework, and also highlights important gender differences in these developmental pathways.

  4. The relationship of treadmill test performance to blood pressure and other cardiovascular risk factors in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Gillum, R F

    1989-07-01

    Associations between treadmill test performance, blood pressure, and other cardiovascular risk factors in over 6000 adolescents, aged 12 to 17 years, were examined with data from the third cycle of the National Health Examination Survey. Exercise tolerance was measured by a 5-minute submaximal treadmill test. Estimated VO2 increased with age in boys but decreased with age in girls. VO2 was higher in boys than girls and similar in black and white subjects. Exercise heart rate was significantly correlated with blood pressure in white boys and girls and with obesity in white and black persons. A small but significant association between exercise heart rate and systolic blood pressure was demonstrated in white boys and girls independent of age and obesity. Aerobic exercise may be useful in adolescents for prevention of adult hypertension by means of obesity control and improved cardiopulmonary fitness.

  5. Facial pressure zones of an oronasal interface for noninvasive ventilation: a computer model analysis* **

    PubMed Central

    Barros, Luana Souto; Talaia, Pedro; Drummond, Marta; Natal-Jorge, Renato

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the effects of an oronasal interface (OI) for noninvasive ventilation, using a three-dimensional (3D) computational model with the ability to simulate and evaluate the main pressure zones (PZs) of the OI on the human face. METHODS: We used a 3D digital model of the human face, based on a pre-established geometric model. The model simulated soft tissues, skull, and nasal cartilage. The geometric model was obtained by 3D laser scanning and post-processed for use in the model created, with the objective of separating the cushion from the frame. A computer simulation was performed to determine the pressure required in order to create the facial PZs. We obtained descriptive graphical images of the PZs and their intensity. RESULTS: For the graphical analyses of each face-OI model pair and their respective evaluations, we ran 21 simulations. The computer model identified several high-impact PZs in the nasal bridge and paranasal regions. The variation in soft tissue depth had a direct impact on the amount of pressure applied (438-724 cmH2O). CONCLUSIONS: The computer simulation results indicate that, in patients submitted to noninvasive ventilation with an OI, the probability of skin lesion is higher in the nasal bridge and paranasal regions. This methodology could increase the applicability of biomechanical research on noninvasive ventilation interfaces, providing the information needed in order to choose the interface that best minimizes the risk of skin lesion. PMID:25610506

  6. A statistical model for collective risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keef, Caroline; Tawn, Jonathan A.; Lamb, Rob

    2010-05-01

    In this paper we present the theoretical basis of a statistical method that can be used as the basis of a collective risk assessment for country (or continent)-wide events. Our method is based on the conditional dependence model of Heffernan and Tawn (2004), which has been extended to handle missing data and temporal dependence by Keef et al (2009). This model describes the full joint distribution function of a set of variables and incorporates separate models for the marginal and dependence characteristics of the set using a copula approach. The advantages of this model include; the flexibility in terms of types of dependence modelled; the ability to handle situations where the dependence in the tails of the data is not the same as that in the main body of the data; the ability to handle both temporal and spatial dependence; and the ability to model a large number of variables. In this paper we present further extensions to the statistical model which allow us to simulate country-wide extreme events with the correct spatial and temporal structure and show an application to river flood events. Heffernan J. E. and Tawn J. A. (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extreme values (with discussion) J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 66 497-546 Keef, C., J. Tawn, and C. Svensson. (2009). Spatial risk assessment for extreme river flows. Applied Statistics 58,(5) pp 601-618

  7. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  8. Development of Relative Risk Model for Regional Groundwater Risk Assessment: A Case Study in the Lower Liaohe River Plain, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

  9. Development of relative risk model for regional groundwater risk assessment: a case study in the lower Liaohe River Plain, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk. PMID:26020518

  10. Development of relative risk model for regional groundwater risk assessment: a case study in the lower Liaohe River Plain, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Xianbo; Zuo, Rui; Teng, Yanguo; Wang, Jinsheng; Wang, Bin

    2015-01-01

    Increasing pressure on water supply worldwide, especially in arid areas, has resulted in groundwater overexploitation and contamination, and subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality and threats to public health. Environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater is an important tool for groundwater protection. This study presents a new approach for assessing the environmental risk assessment of regional groundwater. It was carried out with a relative risk model (RRM) coupled with a series of indices, such as a groundwater vulnerability index, which includes receptor analysis, risk source analysis, risk exposure and hazard analysis, risk characterization, and management of groundwater. The risk map is a product of the probability of environmental contamination and impact. The reliability of the RRM was verified using Monte Carlo analysis. This approach was applied to the lower Liaohe River Plain (LLRP), northeastern China, which covers 23604 km2. A spatial analysis tool within GIS which was used to interpolate and manipulate the data to develop environmental risk maps of regional groundwater, divided the level of risk from high to low into five ranks (V, IV, III, II, I). The results indicate that areas of relative risk rank (RRR) V cover 2324 km2, covering 9.8% of the area; RRR IV covers 3986 km2, accounting for 16.9% of the area. It is a new and appropriate method for regional groundwater resource management and land use planning, and is a rapid and effective tool for improving strategic decision making to protect groundwater and reduce environmental risk.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Pressurization of a Propellant Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd

    1998-01-01

    An unsteady finite volume procedure has been developed to predict the history of pressure, temperature and mass flow rate of the pressurant and propellant during the expulsion of the propellant from a tank. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy conservation equations are solved at the ullage space. The model accounts for the change in the ullage volume due to expulsion of the propellant. It also accounts for the heat transfer from the tank wall and propellant to the ullage gas. The procedure was incorporated in the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The results of several test cases were then compared with a published correlation of pressurant requirements for a given displacement of propellant. The agreement between the predictions and the correlation was found to be satisfactory.

  12. Numerical Modeling of Pressurization of a Propellant Tank

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd

    1999-01-01

    An unsteady finite volume procedure has been developed to predict the history o pressure, temperature and mass flow rate of the pressurant and propellant during the expulsion of the propellant from a tan. The time dependent mass, momentum and energy conservation equations are solved at the ullage space. The model accounts for the change in the ullage volume due to expulsion of the propellant. It also accounts for the heat transfer from the tank wall and propellant to the ullage gas. The procedure was incorporated in the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). The results of several test cases were then compared with a published correlation of pressurant requirements for a given displacement of propellant. The agreement between the predictions and the correlation was found to be satisfactory.

  13. A Simplified Model for Detonation Based Pressure-Gain Combustors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paxson, Daniel E.

    2010-01-01

    A time-dependent model is presented which simulates the essential physics of a detonative or otherwise constant volume, pressure-gain combustor for gas turbine applications. The model utilizes simple, global thermodynamic relations to determine an assumed instantaneous and uniform post-combustion state in one of many envisioned tubes comprising the device. A simple, second order, non-upwinding computational fluid dynamic algorithm is then used to compute the (continuous) flowfield properties during the blowdown and refill stages of the periodic cycle which each tube undergoes. The exhausted flow is averaged to provide mixed total pressure and enthalpy which may be used as a cycle performance metric for benefits analysis. The simplicity of the model allows for nearly instantaneous results when implemented on a personal computer. The results compare favorably with higher resolution numerical codes which are more difficult to configure, and more time consuming to operate.

  14. Hip fracture and pressure ulcers - the Pan-European Pressure Ulcer Study - intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors.

    PubMed

    Lindholm, Christina; Sterner, Eila; Romanelli, Marco; Pina, Elaine; Torra y Bou, Joan; Hietanen, Helvi; Iivanainen, Ansa; Gunningberg, Lena; Hommel, Ami; Klang, Birgitta; Dealey, Carol

    2008-06-01

    Pressure ulcers (PU) in patients with hip fracture remain a problem. Incidence of between 8.8% and 55% have been reported. There are few studies focusing on the specific patient-, surgery- and care-related risk indicators in this group. The aims of the study were: - to investigate prevalence and incidence of PU upon arrival and at discharge from hospital and to identify potential intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for development of PU in patients admitted for hip fracture surgery, - to illuminate potential differences in patient logistics, surgery, PU prevalence and incidence and care between Northern and Southern Europe. Consecutive patients with hip fracture in six countries, Sweden, Finland, UK (North) and Spain, Italy and Portugal (South), were included. The patients were followed from Accident and Emergency Department and until discharge or 7 days. Prevalence, PU at discharge and incidence were investigated, and intrinsic and extrinsic risk indicators, including waiting time for surgery and duration of surgery were recorded. Of the 635 patients, 10% had PU upon arrival and 22% at discharge (26% North and 16% South). The majority of ulcers were grade 1 and none was grade 4. Cervical fractures were more common in the North and trochanteric in the South. Waiting time for surgery and duration of surgery were significantly longer in the South. Traction was more common in the South and perioperative warming in the North. Risk factors of statistical significance correlated to PU at discharge were age >or=71 (P = 0.020), dehydration (P = 0.005), moist skin (P = 0.004) and total Braden score (P = 0.050) as well as subscores for friction (P = 0.020), nutrition (P = 0.020) and sensory perception (P = 0.040). Comorbid conditions of statistical significance for development of PU were diabetes (P = 0.005) and pulmonary disease (P = 0.006). Waiting time for surgery, duration of surgery, warming or non warming perioperatively, type of anaesthesia, traction and type of

  15. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  16. Risk modelling for vaccination: a risk assessment perspective.

    PubMed

    Wooldridge, M

    2007-01-01

    Any risk assessment involves a number of steps. First, the risk manager, in close liaison with the risk assessor, should identify the question of interest. Then, the hazards associated with each risk question should be identified. Only then can the risks themselves be assessed. Several questions may reasonably be asked about the risk associated with avian influenza vaccines and their use. Some apply to any vaccine, while others are specific to avian influenza. Risks may occur during manufacture and during use. Some concern the vaccines themselves, while others address the effect of failure on disease control. The hazards associated with each risk question are then identified. These may be technical errors in design, development or production, such as contamination or failure to inactivate appropriately. They may relate to the biological properties of the pathogens themselves displayed during manufacture or use, for example, reversion to virulence, shedding or not being the right strain for the subsequent challenge. Following a consideration of risks and hazards, the information needed and an outline of the steps necessary to assess the risk is summarized, for an illustrative risk question using, as an example, the risks associated with the use of vaccines in the field. A brief consideration of the differences between qualitative and quantitative risk assessments is also included, and the potential effects of uncertainty and variability on the results are discussed.

  17. Structural equation modeling in environmental risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Buncher, C R; Succop, P A; Dietrich, K N

    1991-01-01

    Environmental epidemiology requires effective models that take individual observations of environmental factors and connect them into meaningful patterns. Single-factor relationships have given way to multivariable analyses; simple additive models have been augmented by multiplicative (logistic) models. Each of these steps has produced greater enlightenment and understanding. Models that allow for factors causing outputs that can affect later outputs with putative causation working at several different time points (e.g., linkage) are not commonly used in the environmental literature. Structural equation models are a class of covariance structure models that have been used extensively in economics/business and social science but are still little used in the realm of biostatistics. Path analysis in genetic studies is one simplified form of this class of models. We have been using these models in a study of the health and development of infants who have been exposed to lead in utero and in the postnatal home environment. These models require as input the directionality of the relationship and then produce fitted models for multiple inputs causing each factor and the opportunity to have outputs serve as input variables into the next phase of the simultaneously fitted model. Some examples of these models from our research are presented to increase familiarity with this class of models. Use of these models can provide insight into the effect of changing an environmental factor when assessing risk. The usual cautions concerning believing a model, believing causation has been proven, and the assumptions that are required for each model are operative. PMID:2050063

  18. Risk assessment of physiological effects of atmospheric composition and pressure in Constellation vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheuring, Richard; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

    Introduction: To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB=414mmHg) and mildly hypoxic ( ppO2=132mmHg, 32% O2-68%N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness) could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: We performed a literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure. The results of nine studies were evaluated. Results: There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar oxygen (O2) partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response is. Between 7% and 25% of adults may experience mild AMS near 2000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6500 ft, acute PAO2=75mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528mmHg (3048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2=85mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. Conclusions: We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77mmHg at 4876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2=77mmHg). So the following may be employed for operational risk reduction: (1) develop procedures to increase PB as needed in the

  19. Human Plague Risk: Spatial-Temporal Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.

    2010-01-01

    This chpater reviews the use of spatial-temporal models in identifying potential risks of plague outbreaks into the human population. Using earth observations by satellites remote sensing there has been a systematic analysis and mapping of the close coupling between the vectors of the disease and climate variability. The overall result is that incidence of plague is correlated to positive El Nino/Southem Oscillation (ENSO).

  20. Modeling of an implantable device for remote arterial pressure measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, J. A.; Lechuga, Y.; Mozuelos, R.; Martinez, M.

    2013-05-01

    Cardiovascular diseases are the leading causes of illness and death in Europe, having a major impact on healthcare costs. An intelligent stent (e-stent), capable of obtaining and transmitting measurements of physiological parameters, can be a useful tool for real-time monitorization of arterial blockage without patient hospitalization. In this paper, a behavioral model of a pressure sensing-based e-stent is proposed and simulated under several restenosis conditions. Special attention has been given to the need of an accurate fault model, obtained from realistic finite-element simulations, to ensure long-term reliability; particularly for those faults whose behavior cannot be described by usual analytical models.

  1. Developing a pressure ulcer risk assessment scale for patients in long-term care.

    PubMed

    Lepisto, Mervi; Eriksson, Elina; Hietanen, Helvi; Lepisto, Jyri; Lauri, Sirkka

    2006-02-01

    Previous pressure ulcer risk assessment scales appear to have relied on opinions about risk factors and are based on care setting rather than research evidence. Utilizing 21 existing risk assessment scales and relevant risk factor literature, an instrument was developed by Finnish researchers that takes into account individual patient risk factors, devices and methods applied in nursing care, and organizational characteristics. The instrument underwent two pilot tests to assess the relevance and clarity of the instrument: the first involved 43 nurses and six patients; the second involved 50 nurses with expertise in wound care. Changes to questionnaire items deemed necessary as a result of descriptive analysis and agreement percentages were completed. After pilot testing, the final instrument addressed the following issues: 1) patient risks: activity, mobility in bed, mental status, nutrition, urinary incontinence, fecal incontinence, sensory perception, and skin condition; 2) devices and methods used in patient care: technical devices, bed type, mattress, overlay, seat cushions, and care methods; and 3) staff number and structure, maximum number of beds, and beds in use (the last group of questions were included to ensure participants understood the items; results were not analyzed). The phases of the study provided an expeditious means of data collection and a suitable opportunity to assess how the instrument would function in practice. Instrument reliability and validity were improved as a result of the pilot testing and can be enhanced further with continued use and assessment.

  2. Assessing calibration of multinomial risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Van Hoorde, Kirsten; Vergouwe, Yvonne; Timmerman, Dirk; Van Huffel, Sabine; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Van Calster, Ben

    2014-07-10

    Calibration, that is, whether observed outcomes agree with predicted risks, is important when evaluating risk prediction models. For dichotomous outcomes, several tools exist to assess different aspects of model calibration, such as calibration-in-the-large, logistic recalibration, and (non-)parametric calibration plots. We aim to extend these tools to prediction models for polytomous outcomes. We focus on models developed using multinomial logistic regression (MLR): outcome Y with k categories is predicted using k - 1 equations comparing each category i (i = 2, … ,k) with reference category 1 using a set of predictors, resulting in k - 1 linear predictors. We propose a multinomial logistic recalibration framework that involves an MLR fit where Y is predicted using the k - 1 linear predictors from the prediction model. A non-parametric alternative may use vector splines for the effects of the linear predictors. The parametric and non-parametric frameworks can be used to generate multinomial calibration plots. Further, the parametric framework can be used for the estimation and statistical testing of calibration intercepts and slopes. Two illustrative case studies are presented, one on the diagnosis of malignancy of ovarian tumors and one on residual mass diagnosis in testicular cancer patients treated with cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The risk prediction models were developed on data from 2037 and 544 patients and externally validated on 1107 and 550 patients, respectively. We conclude that calibration tools can be extended to polytomous outcomes. The polytomous calibration plots are particularly informative through the visual summary of the calibration performance.

  3. Tantalum strength model incorporating temperature, strain rate and pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett; Brown, Justin; Lane, Matt

    Tantalum is a body-centered-cubic (BCC) refractory metal that is widely used in many applications in high temperature, strain rate and pressure environments. In this work, we propose a physically-based strength model for tantalum that incorporates effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. A constitutive model for single crystal tantalum is developed based on dislocation kink-pair theory, and calibrated to measurements on single crystal specimens. The model is then used to predict deformations of single- and polycrystalline tantalum. In addition, the proposed strength model is implemented into Sandia's ALEGRA solid dynamics code to predict plastic deformations of tantalum in engineering-scale applications at extreme conditions, e.g. Taylor impact tests and Z machine's high pressure ramp compression tests, and the results are compared with available experimental data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  4. Modeling thermophysical properties of food under high pressure.

    PubMed

    Otero, L; Guignon, B; Aparicio, C; Sanz, P D

    2010-04-01

    A set of well-known generic models to predict the thermophysical properties of food from its composition at atmospheric conditions was adapted to work at any pressure. The suitability of the models was assessed using data from the literature for four different food products, namely tomato paste, potato, pork, and cod. When the composition of the product considered was not known, an alternative was proposed if some thermal data at atmospheric conditions were available. Since knowledge on the initial freezing point and ice content of food are essential for the correct prediction of its thermal properties, models for obtaining these properties under pressure were also included. Our results showed that good predictions under pressure, accurate enough for most engineering calculations can be made, either from composition data or using known thermal data of the food considered at atmospheric conditions. All the equations and coefficients needed to construct the models are given throughout the text, thus readers can compose their own routines. However, these routines can also be downloaded free at http://www.if.csic.es/programas/ifiform.htm as executable programs running in Windows.

  5. Animal Models of Ischemic Stroke. Part One: Modeling Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Bacigaluppi, Marco; Comi, Giancarlo; Hermann, Dirk M.

    2010-01-01

    Ischemic stroke is one of the leading causes of long-term disability and death in developed and developing countries. As emerging disease, stroke related mortality and morbidity is going to step up in the next decades. This is both due to the poor identification of risk factors and persistence of unhealthy habits, as well as to the aging of the population. To counteract the estimated increase in stroke incidence, it is of primary importance to identify risk factors, study their effects, to promote primary and secondary prevention, and to extend the therapeutic repertoire that is currently limited to the very first hours after stroke. While epidemiologic studies in the human population are essential to identify emerging risk factors, adequate animal models represent a fundamental tool to dissect stroke risk factors to their molecular mechanism and to find efficacious therapeutic strategies for this complex multi- factorial disorder. The present review is organized into two parts: the first part deals with the animal models that have been developed to study stroke and its related risk factors and the second part analyzes the specific stroke models. These models represent an indispensable tool to investigate the mechanisms of cerebral injury and to develop novel therapies. PMID:20802809

  6. Petri net modeling of fault analysis for probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Andrew

    Fault trees and event trees have been widely accepted as the modeling strategy to perform Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). However, there are several limitations associated with fault tree/event tree modeling. These include 1. It only considers binary events; 2. It assumes independence among basic events; and 3. It does not consider timing sequence of basic events. This thesis investigates Petri net modeling as a potential alternative for PRA modeling. Petri nets have mainly been used as a simulation tool for queuing and network systems. However, it has been suggested that they could also model failure scenarios, and thus could be a potential modeling strategy for PRA. In this thesis, the transformations required to model logic gates in a fault tree by Petri nets are explored. The gap between fault tree analysis and Petri net analysis is bridged through gate equivalency analysis. Methods for qualitative and quantitative analysis for Petri nets are presented. Techniques are developed and implemented to revise and tailor traditional Petri net modeling for system failure analysis. The airlock system and the maintenance cooling system of a CANada Deuterium Uranium (CANDU) reactor are used as case studies to demonstrate Petri nets ability to model system failure and provide a structured approach for qualitative and quantitative analysis. The minimal cutsets and the probability of the airlock system failing to maintain the pressure boundary are obtained. Furthermore, the case study is extended to non-coherent system analysis due to system maintenance.

  7. Phenomenological model of interstitial fluid pressure in a solid tumor.

    PubMed

    Liu, L J; Brown, S L; Ewing, J R; Schlesinger, M

    2011-08-01

    Tumor interstitial fluid pressure (TIFP) has the potential to predict tumor response to nonsurgical cancer treatments, including radiation therapy. At present the only quantitative measures available are of limited use, since they are invasive and yield only point measurements. We present the mathematical framework for a quantitative, noninvasive measure of TIFP. The model describes the distribution of interstitial fluid pressure in three distinct tumor regions: vascularized tumor rim, central tumor region, and normal tissue. A relationship between the TIFP and the fluid flow velocity at the periphery of a tumor is presented. This model suggests that a measure of fluid flow rate from a tumor into normal tissue reflects TIFP. We demonstrate that the acquisition of serial images of a tumor after the injection of a contrast agent can provide a noninvasive and potentially quantitative measure of TIFP.

  8. NGNP Risk Management Database: A Model for Managing Risk

    SciTech Connect

    John Collins

    2009-09-01

    To facilitate the implementation of the Risk Management Plan, the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Project has developed and employed an analytical software tool called the NGNP Risk Management System (RMS). A relational database developed in Microsoft® Access, the RMS provides conventional database utility including data maintenance, archiving, configuration control, and query ability. Additionally, the tool’s design provides a number of unique capabilities specifically designed to facilitate the development and execution of activities outlined in the Risk Management Plan. Specifically, the RMS provides the capability to establish the risk baseline, document and analyze the risk reduction plan, track the current risk reduction status, organize risks by reference configuration system, subsystem, and component (SSC) and Area, and increase the level of NGNP decision making.

  9. Functional Risk Modeling for Lunar Surface Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomson, Fraser; Mathias, Donovan; Go, Susie; Nejad, Hamed

    2010-01-01

    We introduce an approach to risk modeling that we call functional modeling , which we have developed to estimate the capabilities of a lunar base. The functional model tracks the availability of functions provided by systems, in addition to the operational state of those systems constituent strings. By tracking functions, we are able to identify cases where identical functions are provided by elements (rovers, habitats, etc.) that are connected together on the lunar surface. We credit functional diversity in those cases, and in doing so compute more realistic estimates of operational mode availabilities. The functional modeling approach yields more realistic estimates of the availability of the various operational modes provided to astronauts by the ensemble of surface elements included in a lunar base architecture. By tracking functional availability the effects of diverse backup, which often exists when two or more independent elements are connected together, is properly accounted for.

  10. Highly physical penumbra solar radiation pressure modeling with atmospheric effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, Robert; Flury, Jakob; Bandikova, Tamara; Schilling, Manuel

    2015-10-01

    We present a new method for highly physical solar radiation pressure (SRP) modeling in Earth's penumbra. The fundamental geometry and approach mirrors past work, where the solar radiation field is modeled using a number of light rays, rather than treating the Sun as a single point source. However, we aim to clarify this approach, simplify its implementation, and model previously overlooked factors. The complex geometries involved in modeling penumbra solar radiation fields are described in a more intuitive and complete way to simplify implementation. Atmospheric effects are tabulated to significantly reduce computational cost. We present new, more efficient and accurate approaches to modeling atmospheric effects which allow us to consider the high spatial and temporal variability in lower atmospheric conditions. Modeled penumbra SRP accelerations for the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites are compared to the sub-nm/s2 precision GRACE accelerometer data. Comparisons to accelerometer data and a traditional penumbra SRP model illustrate the improved accuracy which our methods provide. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the significance of various atmospheric parameters and modeled effects on penumbra SRP. While this model is more complex than a traditional penumbra SRP model, we demonstrate its utility and propose that a highly physical model which considers atmospheric effects should be the basis for any simplified approach to penumbra SRP modeling.

  11. Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, Jeffrey A.; Gernhardt, Michael L.

    2007-01-01

    To reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, and to limit the risk of fire, a hypobaric (P(sub B) = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is being considered during lunar missions for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). If the vehicular ppO2 is acutely changed from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface outpost operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. Methods: An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of hypoxia and altitude symptoms or AMS. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on the physiological concerns associated with hypobaric operations, AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. Results: Although space vehicles have operated in hypobaric conditions previously, they have not operated in a mildly hypoxic ppO2. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, such that the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (P(sub A)O2), the greater the likelihood of an AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m (xxx mmHg) altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute (P(sub A)O2) = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute (P(sub A)O2) = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV

  12. Modeling plasma pressure anisotropy's effect on Saturn's global magnetospheric dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilley, M.; Harnett, E. M.; Winglee, R.

    2014-12-01

    A 3D multi-fluid, multi-scale plasma model with a complete treatment of plasma pressure anisotropy is employed to study global magnetospheric dynamics at Saturn. Cassini has observed anisotropies in the Saturnian magnetosphere, and analyses have showed correlations between anisotropy and plasma convection, ring current structure and intensity, confinement of plasma to the equatorial plane, as well as mass transport to the outer magnetosphere. The energization and transport of plasma within Saturn's magnetosphere is impactful upon the induced magnetic environments and atmospheres of potentially habitable satellites such as Enceladus and Titan. Recent efforts to couple pressure anisotropy with 3D multi-fluid plasma modeling have shown a significant move towards matching observations for simulations of Earth's magnetosphere. Our approach is used to study the effects of plasma pressure anisotropy on global processes of the Saturnian magnetosphere such as identifying the effect of pressure anisotropy on the centrifugal interchange instability. Previous simulation results have not completely replicated all aspects of the structure and formation of the interchange 'fingers' measured by Cassini at Saturn. The related effects of anisotropy, in addition to those mentioned above, include contribution to formation of MHD waves (e.g. reduction of Alfvén wave speed) and formation of firehose and mirror instabilities. An accurate understanding of processes such as the interchange instability is required if a complete picture of mass and energy transport at Saturn is to be realized. The results presented here will detail how the inclusion of a full treatment of pressure anisotropy for idealized solar wind conditions modifies the interchange structure and shape of the tail current sheet. Simulation results are compared to observations made by Cassini.

  13. Predictive power of the Braden scale for pressure sore risk in adult critical care patients: a comprehensive review.

    PubMed

    Cox, Jill

    2012-01-01

    Critical care is designed for managing the sickest patients within our healthcare system. Multiple factors associated with an increased likelihood of pressure ulcer development have been investigated in the critical care population. Nevertheless, there is a lack of consensus regarding which of these factors poses the greatest risk for pressure ulceration. While the Braden scale for pressure sore risk is the most commonly used tool for measuring pressure ulcer risk in the United States, research focusing on the cumulative Braden Scale score and subscale scores is lacking in the critical care population. This author conducted a literature review on pressure ulcer risk assessment in the critical care population, to include the predictive value of both the total score and the subscale scores. In this review, the subscales sensory perception, mobility, moisture, and friction/shear were found to be associated with an increased likelihood of pressure ulcer development; in contrast, the Activity and Nutrition subscales were not found to predict pressure ulcer development in this population. In order to more precisely quantify risk in the critically ill population, modification of the Braden scale or development of a critical care specific risk assessment tool may be indicated.

  14. Galileo's relativity principle, the concept of pressure, and complex characteristics, for the six-equation, one-pressure model

    SciTech Connect

    Makowitz, H.

    1992-10-01

    We have studied various formulations of the concept of pressure, in the context of the usual Six-Equation Model of thermal-hydraulics. A different concept of pressure, than the usual one, has been used. This new pressure concept is Galilean Invariant, and results for the One-Pressure Model with the same complex characteristic roots as the Basic III-Posed Model,'' discussed in the literature for the cases we have investigated. We have also examined several Two-Pressure formulations and shown that two pressures are a necessary but not sufficient condition for obtaining a Well-Posed system. Several counter examples are presented. We have shown that the standard theory is not Galilean Invariant and suggested that the origin of III-Posedness is due to our closure relationships. We also question whether the current theory can satisfy conservation principles for mass, energy, and momentum.

  15. Models of pressure compaction and their application for wheat meal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skonecki, Stanisław; Kulig, Ryszard; Łysiak, Grzegorz

    2014-03-01

    Processes of compaction of granular materials were described using selected models. The analysis of their accuracy on the example of wheat was the basis for the discussion on their applicability to the processing of plant-origin materials. Parameters of the model equations for wheat, compressed at 10-18% moisture content were calculated, and the relations between these parameters and wheat moisture were determined. It was found that the analyzed models described the pressure compaction of granular plant material with different accuracy, and were highly dependent on moisture. The study also indicated that the model of Ferrero et al. fits the experimental results well. The parameters of this model reflected very well the physical phenomena which occur during compression.

  16. A Spatio-temporal Model of African Animal Trypanosomosis Risk

    PubMed Central

    Dicko, Ahmadou H.; Percoma, Lassane; Sow, Adama; Adam, Yahaya; Mahama, Charles; Sidibé, Issa; Dayo, Guiguigbaza-Kossigan; Thévenon, Sophie; Fonta, William; Sanfo, Safietou; Djiteye, Aligui; Salou, Ernest; Djohan, Vincent; Cecchi, Giuliano; Bouyer, Jérémy

    2015-01-01

    Background African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a “one layer-one model” approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). Conclusions/Significance The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate

  17. Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Xu

    In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

  18. Discordance between ambulatory versus clinic blood pressure according to global cardiovascular risk group

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Jinho; Park, Sung Ha; Kim, Ju Han; Ihm, Sang Hyun; Kim, Kwang-il; Kim, Woo Shik; Pyun, Wook Bum; Kim, Yu-Mi; Choi, Sung-il; Kim, Soon Kil

    2015-01-01

    Background/Aims: The detection of white coat hypertension (WCH), treated normalized hypertension, and masked hypertension (MH) is important to improve the effectiveness of hypertension management. However, whether global cardiovascular risk (GCR) profile has any effect on the discordance between ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and clinic blood pressure (CBP) is unknown. Methods: Data from 1,916 subjects, taken from the Korean Multicenter Registry for ABP monitoring, were grouped according to diagnostic and therapeutic thresholds for CBP and ABP (140/90 and 135/85 mmHg, respectively). GCR was assessed using European Society of Hypertension 2007 guidelines. Results: The mean subject age was 54.1 ± 14.9 years, and 48.9% of patients were female. The discordancy rate between ABP and CBP in the untreated and treated patients was 32.5% and 26.5%, respectively (p = 0.02). The prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension and MH was 14.4% and 16.0%, respectively. Discordance between ABP and CBP was lower in the very high added-risk group compared to the moderate added-risk group (odds ratio [OR], 0.649; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.487 to 0.863; p = 0.003). The prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension was also lower in the very high added-risk group (OR, 0.451; 95% CI, 0.311 to 0.655). Conclusions: Discordance between ABP and CBP was observed more frequently in untreated subjects than in treated subjects, and less frequently in the very high added-risk group, which was due mainly to the lower prevalence of WCH or treated normalized hypertension. PMID:26354055

  19. Reducing stroke in women with risk factor management: blood pressure and cholesterol.

    PubMed

    Baghshomali, Sanam; Bushnell, Cheryl

    2014-09-01

    Stroke is a major cause of death and disability in adults worldwide. Prevention focused on modifiable risk factors, such as hypertension and hyperlipidemia, has shown them to be of significant importance in decreasing the risk of stroke. Multiple studies have brought to light the differences between men and women with regards to stroke and these risk factors. Women have a higher prevalence of stroke, mortality and disability and it has been shown that preventive and treatment options are not as comprehensive for women. Hence, it is of great necessity to evaluate and summarize the differences in gender and stroke risk factors in order to target disparities and optimize prevention, especially because women have a higher lifetime risk of stroke. The purpose of this review is to summarize sex differences in the prevalence of hypertension and hyperlipidemia. In addition, we will review the sex differences in stroke prevention effectiveness and adherence to blood pressure and cholesterol medications, and suggest future directions for research to reduce the burden of stroke in women. PMID:25335544

  20. Unsteady blade pressure measurements on a model counterrotation propeller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heidelberg, Laurence J.; Woodward, Richard P.

    1989-01-01

    In an exploratory effort an advanced counterrotation propeller instrumented with blade-mounted pressure transducers was tested in the NASA Lewis 9- by 15-Foot Anechoic Wind Tunnel at a simulated takeoff and landing speed of Mach 0.20. The propeller's aft diameter was reduced to investigate possible noise reductions resulting from reduced blade row interaction with the tip vortex. The propeller was tested at three blade row spacings at fixed blade setting angles, at the maximum blade row spacing at higher blade setting angles and at propeller axis angles attack to the flow up to + or - 16 deg. A limited number of unsteady blade surface pressure measurements were made on both rotors of the model counterrotation propeller. Emphasis was placed on determining the effects of rotor-rotor interactions on the blade surface pressures. A unique method of processing the pressure signals was developed that enables even weak interaction waveforms and spectra to be separated from the total signal. The interaction on the aft rotor was many times stronger than that on the forward rotor. The fundamental rotor interaction tone exhibited complicated behavior but generally increased with rotational speed and blade setting angle and decreased with rotor spacing. With the propeller axis at an angle to the flow, the phase response of the aft rotor appeared to be significantly affected by the presence of the forward rotor.

  1. Model-Based Noninvasive Estimation of Intracranial Pressure from Cerebral Blood Flow Velocity and Arterial Pressure

    PubMed Central

    Kashif, Faisal M.; Verghese, George C.; Novak, Vera; Czosnyka, Marek; Heldt, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Intracranial pressure (ICP) is affected in many neurological conditions. Clinical measurement of pressure on the brain currently requires placing a probe in the cerebrospinal fluid compartment, the brain tissue, or other intracranial space. This invasiveness limits the measurement to critically ill patients. As ICP is also clinically important in conditions ranging from brain tumors and hydrocephalus to concussions, noninvasive determination of ICP would be desirable. Our model-based approach to continuous estimation and tracking of ICP uses routinely obtainable time-synchronized, noninvasive (or minimally invasive) measurements of peripheral arterial blood pressure and blood flow velocity in the middle cerebral artery (MCA), both at intra-heartbeat resolution. A physiological model of cerebrovascular dynamics provides mathematical constraints that relate the measured waveforms to ICP. Our algorithm produced patient-specific ICP estimates with no calibration or training. Using 35 hours of data from 37 patients with traumatic brain injury, we generated ICP estimates on 2,665 non-overlapping 60-beat data windows. Referenced against concurrently recorded invasive parenchymal ICP that varied over 100 mmHg across all records, our estimates achieved a mean error (bias) of 1.6 mmHg and standard deviation of error (SDE) of 7.6 mmHg. For the 1,673 data windows over 22 hours in which blood flow velocity recordings were available from both the left and right MCA, averaging the resulting bilateral ICP estimates reduced the bias to 1.5 mmHg and SDE to 5.9 mmHg. This accuracy is already comparable to that of some invasive ICP measurement methods in current clinical use. PMID:22496546

  2. Post-extrasystolic Blood Pressure Potentiation as a Risk Predictor in Cardiac Patients

    PubMed Central

    Steger, Alexander; Sinnecker, Daniel; Barthel, Petra; Müller, Alexander; Gebhardt, Josef; Schmidt, Georg

    2016-01-01

    For more than 100 years physicians have observed that heartbeats following extrasystolic beats are characterised by augmented myocardial contractility. This phenomenon was termed post-extrasystolic potentiation (PESP). In the 1970s it was first noted that PESP measured at the blood pressure level is typically pronounced in heart failure patients. Only recently, it was shown that PESP measured non-invasively as post-extrasystolic blood pressure potentiation was a strong and independent predictor of death in survivors of myocardial infarction and in patients with chronic heart failure. A similar parameter (PESPAfib) can be also assessed in patients with atrial fibrillation. PESP and PESPAfib can be understood as non-invasive parameters that indicate myocardial dysfunction. They have the potential to improve risk stratification strategies for cardiac patients. PMID:27403290

  3. High pressure experiments with a Mars general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, R. M.; Pollack, J. B.; Murphy, J. R.; Schaeffer, J.; Lee, H.

    1992-01-01

    The interaction of three physical processes will determine the stability of the Martian polar caps as the surface pressure increases: the greenhouse effect, atmospheric heat transport, and the change in the CO2 frost point temperature. The contribution of each is readily determined in the Mars general circulation model (GCM). Therefore, we have initiated experiments with the GCM to determine how these processes interact, and how the atmosphere-polar cap system responds to increasing surface pressure. The experiments are carried out for northern winter solstice and generally assume the atmosphere to be free of dust. Each experiment starts from resting isothermal conditions and runs for 50 Mars days. Mars' current orbital parameters are used. The experiments are for surface pressures of 120, 480, and 960 mb, which represent 16, 64, and 128 times the current value. To date we have analyzed the 120 mb experiment and the results indicate the contrary to the simpler models, the polar caps actually advance instead of retreat. Other aspects of this investigation are presented.

  4. Can Ambulatory Blood Pressure Variability Contribute to Individual Cardiovascular Risk Stratification?

    PubMed Central

    Magdás, Annamária; Szilágyi, László; Incze, Alexandru

    2016-01-01

    Objective. The aim of this study is to define the normal range for average real variability (ARV) and to establish whether it can be considered as an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Methods. In this observational study, 110 treated hypertensive patients were included and admitted for antihypertensive treatment adjustment. Circadian blood pressure was recorded with validated devices. Blood pressure variability (BPV) was assessed according to the ARV definition. Based on their variability, patients were classified into low, medium, and high variability groups using the fuzzy c-means algorithm. To assess cardiovascular risk, blood samples were collected. Characteristics of the groups were compared by ANOVA tests. Results. Low variability was defined as ARV below 9.8 mmHg (32 patients), medium as 9.8–12.8 mmHg (48 patients), and high variability above 12.8 mmHg (30 patients). Mean systolic blood pressure was 131.2 ± 16.7, 135.0 ± 12.1, and 141.5 ± 11.4 mmHg in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0113). Glomerular filtration rate was 78.6 ± 29.3, 74.8 ± 26.4, and 62.7 ± 23.2 mL/min/1.73 m2 in the low, medium, and high variability groups, respectively (p = 0.0261). Conclusion. Increased values of average real variability represent an additional cardiovascular risk factor. Therefore, reducing BP variability might be as important as achieving optimal BP levels, but there is need for further studies to define a widely acceptable threshold value. PMID:27247614

  5. Crystal Plasticity Model of Reactor Pressure Vessel Embrittlement in GRIZZLY

    SciTech Connect

    Chakraborty, Pritam; Biner, Suleyman Bulent; Zhang, Yongfeng; Spencer, Benjamin Whiting

    2015-07-01

    The integrity of reactor pressure vessels (RPVs) is of utmost importance to ensure safe operation of nuclear reactors under extended lifetime. Microstructure-scale models at various length and time scales, coupled concurrently or through homogenization methods, can play a crucial role in understanding and quantifying irradiation-induced defect production, growth and their influence on mechanical behavior of RPV steels. A multi-scale approach, involving atomistic, meso- and engineering-scale models, is currently being pursued within the GRIZZLY project to understand and quantify irradiation-induced embrittlement of RPV steels. Within this framework, a dislocation-density based crystal plasticity model has been developed in GRIZZLY that captures the effect of irradiation-induced defects on the flow stress behavior and is presented in this report. The present formulation accounts for the interaction between self-interstitial loops and matrix dislocations. The model predictions have been validated with experiments and dislocation dynamics simulation.

  6. ED 06-3 BLOOD PRESSURE PHENOTYPE ASSOCIATED WITH CARDIOVASCULAR RISK IN YOUNG ADULTS.

    PubMed

    Yano, Yuichiro

    2016-09-01

    Younger adults (ages ≤50 years) are increasingly prone to stroke, chronic kidney disease (CKD), and worsening cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in the US. An alarming increase in prevalence of high blood pressure (BP) related to the obesity epidemic appears to underlie these adverse trends. However, what specific BP characteristics measured in young adulthood optimally predict incident CVD and CKD later in life remains to be determined. Therefore, an optimization of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies in BP management for young adults is challenging but essential. In my lecture, I will fill the gap, using results from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

  7. Model tilt-rotor hover performance and surface pressure measurement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tung, Chee; Branum, Lonnie

    1990-01-01

    A test of a small scale 3-bladed model rotor, with geometry typical of that used on tilt rotor aircraft, was conducted in the Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate's anechoic hover chamber. The purpose was to determine the hover performance of the rotor and investigate the pressure distributions on a blade at various collective pitch angles and tip speeds. The measured pressures indicate that the rotor did not stall for high collective pitch angles up to theta sub c = 25 deg. This is clearly a 3-D effect since 2-D theory predicts flow separation at these high angles. The flow near the trailing edge separated above theta sub c = 25 deg which caused a sharp increase in power.

  8. [Association of Braden subscales with the risk of development of pressure ulcer].

    PubMed

    Zambonato, Bruna Pochmann; de Assis, Michelli Cristina Silva; Beghetto, Mariur Gomes

    2013-06-01

    Pressure ulcers (PU) may increase the incidence of hospital complications, and one should prevent this damage. The Braden Scale stands out as a tool to assess the risk of PU. The study aimed to identify changes in the score of the Braden subscales are associated with the risk of developing PCU. Logistic regression was used in a retrospective cohort study conducted in Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre in adults hospitalized in surgical clinical units from October 2005 to June 2006. We evaluated the records database of 1503 patients with a mean aged 55.5 +/- 16 years, 52.7% female. The incidence of PU was 1.8% and was associated with diabetes and heart failure. There was a higher PU in patients worst in sensory perception, mobility, and activity and the presence of moisture. No association was found between nutrition and PU. Except nutrition, the other Braden sub-scales shown to be predictive of PU.

  9. Realistic many-body models for manganese monoxide under pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczak, Jan M.; Miyake, T.; Aryasetiawan, F.

    2010-03-01

    In materials such as transition-metal oxides where electronic Coulomb correlations impede a description in terms of standard band theories, the application of genuine many-body techniques is inevitable. Interfacing the realism of density-functional-based methods with the virtues of Hubbard-type Hamiltonians, requires the joint ab initio construction of transfer integrals and interaction matrix elements (such as the Hubbard U ) in a localized basis set. In this work, we employ the scheme of maximally localized Wannier functions and the constrained random-phase approximation to create effective low-energy models for manganese monoxide and track their evolution under external pressure. We find that in the low-pressure antiferromagnetic phase, the compression results in an increase in the bare Coulomb interaction for specific orbitals. As we rationalized in recent model considerations [Phys. Rev. B 79, 235133 (2009)], this seemingly counterintuitive behavior is a consequence of the delocalization of the respective Wannier functions. The change in screening processes does not alter this tendency, and thus, the screened on-site component of the interaction, the Hubbard U of the effective low-energy system, increases with pressure as well. The orbital anisotropy of the effects originates from the orientation of the orbitals vis-à-vis the deformation of the unit cell. Within the high-pressure paramagnetic phase, on the other hand, we find the significant increase in the Hubbard U is insensitive to the orbital orientation and almost exclusively owing to a substantial weakening of screening channels upon compression.

  10. A hybrid likelihood algorithm for risk modelling.

    PubMed

    Kellerer, A M; Kreisheimer, M; Chmelevsky, D; Barclay, D

    1995-03-01

    The risk of radiation-induced cancer is assessed through the follow-up of large cohorts, such as atomic bomb survivors or underground miners who have been occupationally exposed to radon and its decay products. The models relate to the dose, age and time dependence of the excess tumour rates, and they contain parameters that are estimated in terms of maximum likelihood computations. The computations are performed with the software package EPI-CURE, which contains the two main options of person-by person regression or of Poisson regression with grouped data. The Poisson regression is most frequently employed, but there are certain models that require an excessive number of cells when grouped data are used. One example involves computations that account explicitly for the temporal distribution of continuous exposures, as they occur with underground miners. In past work such models had to be approximated, but it is shown here that they can be treated explicitly in a suitably reformulated person-by person computation of the likelihood. The algorithm uses the familiar partitioning of the log-likelihood into two terms, L1 and L0. The first term, L1, represents the contribution of the 'events' (tumours). It needs to be evaluated in the usual way, but constitutes no computational problem. The second term, L0, represents the event-free periods of observation. It is, in its usual form, unmanageable for large cohorts. However, it can be reduced to a simple form, in which the number of computational steps is independent of cohort size. The method requires less computing time and computer memory, but more importantly it leads to more stable numerical results by obviating the need for grouping the data. The algorithm may be most relevant to radiation risk modelling, but it can facilitate the modelling of failure-time data in general. PMID:7604154

  11. Modeling of Propagation of Interacting Cracks Under Hydraulic Pressure Gradient

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Hai; Mattson, Earl Douglas; Podgorney, Robert Karl

    2015-04-01

    A robust and reliable numerical model for fracture initiation and propagation, which includes the interactions among propagating fractures and the coupling between deformation, fracturing and fluid flow in fracture apertures and in the permeable rock matrix, would be an important tool for developing a better understanding of fracturing behaviors of crystalline brittle rocks driven by thermal and (or) hydraulic pressure gradients. In this paper, we present a physics-based hydraulic fracturing simulator based on coupling a quasi-static discrete element model (DEM) for deformation and fracturing with conjugate lattice network flow model for fluid flow in both fractures and porous matrix. Fracturing is represented explicitly by removing broken bonds from the network to represent microcracks. Initiation of new microfractures and growth and coalescence of the microcracks leads to the formation of macroscopic fractures when external and/or internal loads are applied. The coupled DEM-network flow model reproduces realistic growth pattern of hydraulic fractures. In particular, simulation results of perforated horizontal wellbore clearly demonstrate that elastic interactions among multiple propagating fractures, fluid viscosity, strong coupling between fluid pressure fluctuations within fractures and fracturing, and lower length scale heterogeneities, collectively lead to complicated fracturing patterns.

  12. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  13. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  14. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  15. 49 CFR 195.303 - Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. 195.303 Section 195.303 Transportation Other Regulations... Pressure Testing § 195.303 Risk-based alternative to pressure testing older hazardous liquid and carbon dioxide pipelines. (a) An operator may elect to follow a program for testing a pipeline on...

  16. Critical assessment of some inhomogeneous pressure Stephani models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balcerzak, Adam; Dąbrowski, Mariusz P.; Denkiewicz, Tomasz; Polarski, David; Puy, Denis

    2015-04-01

    We consider spherically symmetric inhomogeneous pressure Stephani universes, with the center of symmetry being our location. The main feature of these models is that comoving observers do not follow geodesics. In particular, comoving perfect fluids necessarily have a radially dependent pressure. We consider a subclass of these models characterized by some inhomogeneity parameter β . We show also that the velocity of sound of comoving perfect fluids, like the (effective) equation of state parameter, acquires away from the origin a time- and radial-dependent change proportional to β . In order to produce a realistic universe accelerating at late times without a dark energy component, one must take β <0 . The redshift acquires a modified dependence on the scale factor a (t ) with a relative modification of -9 %, peaking at z ˜4 and vanishing at the big bang and today on our past light cone. The equation of state parameter and the speed of sound of dustlike matter (corresponding to a vanishing pressure at the center of symmetry r =0 ) behave in a similar way, and away from the center of symmetry they become negative—a property usually encountered in the dark energy component only. In order to mimic the observed late-time accelerated expansion, the matter component must significantly depart from standard dust, presumably ruling this subclass of Stephani models out as a realistic cosmology. The only way to accept these models is to keep all standard matter components of the universe, including dark energy, and take an inhomogeneity parameter β that is sufficiently small.

  17. High hydrostatic pressure processing: a promising nonthermal technology to inactivate viruses in high-risk foods.

    PubMed

    Lou, Fangfei; Neetoo, Hudaa; Chen, Haiqiang; Li, Jianrong

    2015-01-01

    Foodborne outbreaks of viral origin have become increasingly a serious public health concern. High-pressure processing (HPP), a nonthermal technology, has come to the forefront for food processing given its minimal effects on food quality. Recent studies have revealed encouraging results for the inactivation of several human viruses by HPP. This review provides comprehensive information on the use of HPP to eliminate viruses in model systems and foods. We address the influences of various parameters, including pressure level, holding time, pH, temperature, and food matrix on the efficacy of pressure inactivation of viruses, as well as insight into the mechanisms for inactivation of enveloped and nonenveloped viruses. HPP is a promising technology for mitigating virus contamination of foods, thus it is essential to identify the optimal parameters for enhancing virus inactivation while ensuring sensory and nutritional quality retention of foods.

  18. The developmental 'risk factor' model of schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Murray, R M; Fearon, P

    1999-01-01

    There is no single cause for schizophrenia. We believe that, as with other common chronic diseases such as diabetes and coronary artery disease, the appropriate aetiological model is one involving multiple genes and environmental risk factors; the latter can be divided into (a) predisposing and (b) precipitating. Our model is that genetic and/or early environmental factors cause the development of anomalous neural networks. We postulate that these interact in the growing child with inherited schizotypal traits to establish a trajectory towards an increasingly solitary and deviant life style. This ultimately projects the individual across the threshold for expression of schizophrenia, sometimes by causing the drug abuse and social adversity that appear to precipitate the psychosis. PMID:10628525

  19. Automating risk analysis of software design models.

    PubMed

    Frydman, Maxime; Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  20. Automating Risk Analysis of Software Design Models

    PubMed Central

    Ruiz, Guifré; Heymann, Elisa; César, Eduardo; Miller, Barton P.

    2014-01-01

    The growth of the internet and networked systems has exposed software to an increased amount of security threats. One of the responses from software developers to these threats is the introduction of security activities in the software development lifecycle. This paper describes an approach to reduce the need for costly human expertise to perform risk analysis in software, which is common in secure development methodologies, by automating threat modeling. Reducing the dependency on security experts aims at reducing the cost of secure development by allowing non-security-aware developers to apply secure development with little to no additional cost, making secure development more accessible. To automate threat modeling two data structures are introduced, identification trees and mitigation trees, to identify threats in software designs and advise mitigation techniques, while taking into account specification requirements and cost concerns. These are the components of our model for automated threat modeling, AutSEC. We validated AutSEC by implementing it in a tool based on data flow diagrams, from the Microsoft security development methodology, and applying it to VOMS, a grid middleware component, to evaluate our model's performance. PMID:25136688

  1. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  2. Pressure ulcer prevalence, use of preventive measures, and mortality risk in an acute care population: a quality improvement project.

    PubMed

    Leijon, Siv; Bergh, Ingrid; Terstappen, Karin

    2013-01-01

    The primary aim of this quality improvement project was to determine pressure prevalence, risk of mortality, and use of preventive measures in a group of hospitalized patients. Two hundred fifty-eight patients recruited from Skaraborg Hospital in Sweden were assessed. A 1-day point prevalence study was carried out using a protocol advocated by the European PU Advisory Panel. Patients' age, gender, severity of PU (grades I-IV), anatomical location of PU, and use of preventive measures were recorded. The Swedish language version of the Modified Norton Scale was used for PU risk assessment. Data were collected by nurses trained according to the Web-based training: PU classification, "ePuclas2." After 21 months, a retrospective audit of the electronic records for patients identified with pressure ulcers was completed. The point prevalence of pressure ulcers was 23%. The total number of ulcers was 85, most were grade 1 (n = 39). The most common locations were the sacrum (n = 15) and the heel (n = 10). Three percent of patients (n = 9) had been assessed during their current hospital stay using a risk assessment tool. There was a statistically significant relationship between pressure ulcer occurrence and a low total score on the Modified Norton Scale. The patients' ages correlated significantly to the presence of a pressure ulcer. Patients with a pressure ulcer had a 3.6-fold increased risk of dying within 21 months, as compared with those without a pressure ulcer. Based on results from this quality improvement project, we recommend routine pressure ulcer risk assessment for all patients managed in a hospital setting such as ours. We further recommend that particular attention should be given to older and frail patients who are at higher risk for pressure ulcer occurrence and mortality.

  3. Integrating Professional and Folk Models of HIV Risk: YMSM's Perceptions of High-Risk Sex

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubicek, Katrina; Carpineto, Julie; McDavitt, Bryce; Weiss, George; Iverson, Ellen F.; Au, Chi-Wai; Kerrone, Dustin; Martinez, Miguel; Kipke, Michele D.

    2008-01-01

    Risks associated with HIV are well documented in research literature. Although a great deal has been written about high-risk sex, little research has been conducted to examine how young men who have sex with men (YMSM) perceive and define high-risk sexual behavior. In this study, we compare the "professional" and "folk" models of HIV risk based on…

  4. An analytical pressure-transient model for complex reservoir scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomes, Edmond; Ambastha, Anil K.

    1994-10-01

    Reservoir deposition occurs through long periods of time, thus most reservoirs are heterogeneous in nature. The presence of various zones and layers of different rock and fluid properties is the usual circumstance in petroleum reservoirs. A secondary recovery operation, such as steam-flooding, results in a composite reservoir situation because of the presence of zones of different fluid properties. Because of reservoir heterogeneity and gravity override effects, fluid boundaries separating two zones may have complicated or irregular shapes. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new analytical pressure-transient model which can accommodate complex reservoir scenarios resulting from reservoir heterogeneity and from thermal recovery or other fluid-injection operations. Mathematically, our analytical model considers such complex situations as a generalized eigenvalue system resulting in a system of linear equations. Computational difficulties faced, validation approach of the new model, and an application for complex reservoir scenarios are discussed.

  5. Aspects of Mathematical Modelling of Pressure Retarded Osmosis

    PubMed Central

    Anissimov, Yuri G.

    2016-01-01

    In power generating terms, a pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) energy generating plant, on a river entering a sea or ocean, is equivalent to a hydroelectric dam with a height of about 60 meters. Therefore, PRO can add significantly to existing renewable power generation capacity if economical constrains of the method are resolved. PRO energy generation relies on a semipermeable membrane that is permeable to water and impermeable to salt. Mathematical modelling plays an important part in understanding flows of water and salt near and across semipermeable membranes and helps to optimize PRO energy generation. Therefore, the modelling can help realizing PRO energy generation potential. In this work, a few aspects of mathematical modelling of the PRO process are reviewed and discussed. PMID:26848696

  6. Aspects of Mathematical Modelling of Pressure Retarded Osmosis.

    PubMed

    Anissimov, Yuri G

    2016-02-03

    In power generating terms, a pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) energy generating plant, on a river entering a sea or ocean, is equivalent to a hydroelectric dam with a height of about 60 meters. Therefore, PRO can add significantly to existing renewable power generation capacity if economical constrains of the method are resolved. PRO energy generation relies on a semipermeable membrane that is permeable to water and impermeable to salt. Mathematical modelling plays an important part in understanding flows of water and salt near and across semipermeable membranes and helps to optimize PRO energy generation. Therefore, the modelling can help realizing PRO energy generation potential. In this work, a few aspects of mathematical modelling of the PRO process are reviewed and discussed.

  7. Mathematical modeling of noninvasive blood pressure estimation techniques--Part I: Pressure transmission across the arm tissue.

    PubMed

    Ursino, M; Cristalli, C

    1995-02-01

    A mathematical model of the arm tissue mechanical behavior under the effect of external pressure loads is presented. The model has been used to study stress and strain distribution across the tissue, and pressure transmission to the brachial artery, when the arm is compressed by two adjacent cuffs independently inflated. Using this configuration, the tissue elastic parameters (Young modulus and Poisson ratio) can be individually identified using a simple and noninvasive experimental procedure. Model validation has been achieved by comparing its results with data obtained experimentally on 10 subjects. These comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model may constitute a simple but valid new tool able to describe tissue behavior, subjected to external pressures, with sufficient accuracy. Joined with a model of brachial hemodynamics, it might contribute to improve our understanding of noninvasive blood pressure estimation techniques.

  8. Predicting abnormal pressure from 2-D seismic velocity modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Grauls, D.; Dunand, J.P.; Beaufort, D.

    1995-12-01

    Seismic velocities are the only data available, before drilling, on which to base a quantitative, present-day estimate of abnormal pressure. Recent advances in seismic velocity processing have enabled them to obtain, using an in-house approach, an optimized 2-D interval velocity field and consequently to better define the lateral extension of pressure regimes. The methodology, interpretation and quantification of overpressure-related anomalies are supported by case studies, selected in sand-shale dominated Tertiary basins, offshore West Africa. Another advantage of this approach is that it can also account for the presence of reservoir-potential intervals at great depth and thus provide significant insight, from a prospective standpoint, into very poorly explored areas. Although at the outset the 2-D seismic tool legitimately merits being favored, optimization of the final predictive pressure model, prior to drilling, will depend upon the success of its combined use with other concepts and approaches, pertaining to structural geology, sedimentology, rock mechanics and fluid dynamics.

  9. Solar Radiation Pressure and Attitude Modeling of GNSS Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez-Solano, C.; Hugentobler, U.; Steigenberger, P.

    2011-12-01

    The main non-gravitational orbit perturbation acting on GNSS satellites is the solar radiation pressure. There are two main approaches to model this force: 1) adjusting empirical parameters that fit best the GNSS tracking data, and 2) computing the a priori force from analytical models based on the detailed satellite structure and information available on ground. The first approach is not based on the physical interaction between solar radiation and the satellite, while the second one cannot be easily adjusted to the real on-orbit behaviour of the satellites, e.g., changes due to aging of optical properties or deviations from nominal attitude. We use here an intermediate approach, an analytical box-wing model based on the physical interaction between the solar radiation and a satellite consisting of a bus (box shape) and solar panels. Furthermore, some of the parameters of the box-wing model can be adjusted to fit the GNSS tracking data, namely the optical properties of the satellite surfaces. It was found that a pure box-wing model interacting with solar radiation is not sufficient for precise orbit determination. In particular a rotation lag angle of the solar panels was identified. This deviation of the solar panels from nominal attitude is a key factor to obtain precise GNSS orbits. Moreover, the yaw attitude of GNSS satellites during eclipse seasons deviates from nominal attitude due to maneuvers performed by the satellites. As mentioned in other studies, the phase measurements are degraded if these maneuvers are not taken into account since the modelled position of the navigation antenna may differ from the true position. In this study we focus on the impact of the yaw attitude on the solar radiation pressure parameters and the benefits for precise orbit determination and prediction.

  10. Shear modeling: thermoelasticity at high temperature and pressure for tantalum

    SciTech Connect

    Orlikowski, D; Soderlind, P; Moriarty, J A

    2004-12-06

    For large-scale constitutive strength models the shear modulus is typically assumed to be linearly dependent on temperature. However, for materials compressed beyond the Hugoniot or in regimes where there is very little experimental data, accurate and validated models must be used. To this end, we present here a new methodology that fully accounts for electron- and ion-thermal contributions to the elastic moduli over broad ranges of temperature (<20,000 K) and pressure (<10 Mbar). In this approach, the full potential linear muffin-tin orbital (FP-LMTO) method for the cold and electron-thermal contributions is closely coupled with ion-thermal contributions. For the latter two separate approaches are used. In one approach, the quasi-harmonic, ion-thermal contribution is obtained through a Brillouin zone sum of strain derivatives of the phonons, and in the other a full anharmonic ion-thermal contribution is obtained directly through Monte Carlo (MC) canonical distribution averages of strain derivatives on the multi-ion potential itself. Both approaches use quantum-based interatomic potentials derived from model generalized pseudopotential theory (MGPT). For tantalum, the resulting elastic moduli are compared to available ultrasonic measurements and diamond-anvil-cell compression experiments. Over the range of temperature and pressure considered, the results are then used in a polycrystalline averaging for the shear modulus to assess the linear temperature dependence for Ta.

  11. Raster-Based Approach to Solar Pressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Theodore W. II

    2013-01-01

    An algorithm has been developed to take advantage of the graphics processing hardware in modern computers to efficiently compute high-fidelity solar pressure forces and torques on spacecraft, taking into account the possibility of self-shading due to the articulation of spacecraft components such as solar arrays. The process is easily extended to compute other results that depend on three-dimensional attitude analysis, such as solar array power generation or free molecular flow drag. The impact of photons upon a spacecraft introduces small forces and moments. The magnitude and direction of the forces depend on the material properties of the spacecraft components being illuminated. The parts of the components being lit depends on the orientation of the craft with respect to the Sun, as well as the gimbal angles for any significant moving external parts (solar arrays, typically). Some components may shield others from the Sun. The purpose of this innovation is to enable high-fidelity computation of solar pressure and power generation effects of illuminated portions of spacecraft, taking self-shading from spacecraft attitude and movable components into account. The key idea in this innovation is to compute results dependent upon complicated geometry by using an image to break the problem into thousands or millions of sub-problems with simple geometry, and then the results from the simpler problems are combined to give high-fidelity results for the full geometry. This process is performed by constructing a 3D model of a spacecraft using an appropriate computer language (OpenGL), and running that model on a modern computer's 3D accelerated video processor. This quickly and accurately generates a view of the model (as shown on a computer screen) that takes rotation and articulation of spacecraft components into account. When this view is interpreted as the spacecraft as seen by the Sun, then only the portions of the craft visible in the view are illuminated. The view as

  12. The associations of diastolic blood pressure with the risk of stroke in Western and Eastern populations.

    PubMed

    Ni Mhurchu, C; Rodgers, A; MacMahon, S

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews evidence from two overviews of prospective, observational studies of the association of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) with the risk of stroke in populations from the US and Europe and populations from China and Japan. The Western overview included seven studies involving a total of 405,511 individuals. During a mean follow-up period of 11 years, 843 strokes were observed. The Eastern overview included 18 cohorts involving a total of 124,774 participants. During a mean follow-up duration of 9 years, 1,798 strokes were observed. The shape of the association between usual DBP and the risk of stroke was similar in Western and Eastern populations, but in Eastern populations the size of the association was about 50% steeper than that in Western populations. This may be due, at least in part, to cerebral haemorrhage comprising a greater proportion of total stroke in Eastern populations. This finding, together with the high stroke rates in many Eastern Asian populations, suggests that the potential benefits of blood pressure lowering may be greater in Eastern Asia.

  13. The globalization of risk and risk perception: why we need a new model of risk communication for vaccines.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi; Brocard Paterson, Pauline; Erondu, Ngozi

    2012-11-01

    Risk communication and vaccines is complex and the nature of risk perception is changing, with perceptions converging, evolving and having impacts well beyond specific geographic localities and points in time, especially when amplified through the Internet and other modes of global communication. This article examines the globalization of risk perceptions and their impacts, including the example of measles and the globalization of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine risk perceptions, and calls for a new, more holistic model of risk assessment, risk communication and risk mitigation, embedded in an ongoing process of risk management for vaccines and immunization programmes. It envisions risk communication as an ongoing process that includes trust-building strategies hand-in-hand with operational and policy strategies needed to mitigate and manage vaccine-related risks, as well as perceptions of risk.

  14. Tri-Gas Pressurization System Testing and Modeling for Cryogenic Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, B.; Polsgrove, R.; Stephens, J.; Hedayat, A.

    2014-01-01

    The use of Tri-gas in rocket propulsion systems is somewhat of a new technology. This paper defines Tri-gas as a mixture of gases composed largely of helium with a small percentage of a stoichiometric mixture of hydrogen and oxygen. When exposed to a catalyst the hydrogen and oxygen in the mixture combusts, significantly raising the temperature of the mixture. The increase in enthalpy resulting from the combustion process significantly decreases the required quantity of gas needed to pressurize the ullage of the vehicle propellant tanks. The objective of this effort was to better understand the operating characteristics of Tri-gas in a pressurization system with low temperature applications. In conjunction with ongoing programs at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, an effort has been undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics of Tri-gas through modeling and bench testing. Through improved understanding of the operating characteristics, the risk of using this new technology in a launch vehicle propulsion system was reduced. Bench testing of Tri-gas was a multistep process that targeted gas characteristics and performance aspects that pose a risk to application in a pressurization system. Pressurization systems are vital to propulsion system performance. Keeping a target ullage pressure in propulsions tanks is necessary to supply propellant at the conditions and flow rates required to maintain desired engine functionality. The first component of testing consisted of sampling Tri-gas sources that had been stagnant for various lengths of time in order to determine the rate at which stratification takes place. Second, a bench test was set up in which Tri-gas was sent through a catalyst bed. This test was designed to evaluate the performance characteristics of Tri-gas, under low temperature inlet temperatures, in a flight-like catalyst bed reactor. The third, most complex, test examined the performance characteristics of Tri-gas at low temperature temperatures

  15. Circumferential pressure distributions in a model labyrinth seal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leong, Y. M. M. S.; Brown, R. D.

    1982-01-01

    A research program to isolate and study leakage flow through labyrinth glands was initiated. Circumferential pressure distributions were measured in the labyrinth glands with geometry appropriate to the high pressure labyrinths in large steam turbines. Knowledge of this pressure distribution is essential as it is this unequal pressure field that results in the destabilizing force. Parameters that are likely to affect the pressure distributions are incorporated into the test rig. Some preliminary pressure profiles are presented.

  16. [Systematic pressure ulcer risk management.: Results of implementing multiple interventions at Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin].

    PubMed

    Hauss, Armin; Greshake, Susanne; Skiba, Thomas; Schmidt, Kristine; Rohe, Julia; Jürgensen, Jan Steffen

    2016-01-01

    Pressure ulcers impose a high burden of disease on both the affected individual and society. Demographic change and multimorbidity aggravate the problem. The present study describes the systematic implementation of a comprehensive approach to reduce the incidence of pressure ulcers in an inpatient setting. The introduction of systematic risk assessment and the subsequent risk-adjusted application of evidence-based prevention, combined with continuous feedback of outcomes as well as tailored training, were associated with a significant decline in the incidence of pressure ulcers. Especially the occurrence of high-grade ulcers could be minimized by this systems approach. PMID:27480185

  17. Enhanced solar radiation pressure modeling for Galileo satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montenbruck, O.; Steigenberger, P.; Hugentobler, U.

    2015-03-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for modeling solar radiation pressure (SRP) effects on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs). It focuses on the Galileo In-Orbit Validation (IOV) satellites, for which obvious SRP modeling deficits can be identified in presently available precise orbit products. To overcome these problems, the estimation of empirical accelerations in the Sun direction (D), solar panel axis (Y) and the orthogonal (B) axis is complemented by an a priori model accounting for the contribution of the rectangular spacecraft body. Other than the GPS satellites, which comprise an almost cubic body, the Galileo IOV satellites exhibit a notably rectangular shape with a ratio of about 2:1 for the main body axes. Use of the a priori box model allows to properly model the varying cross section exposed to the Sun during yaw-steering attitude mode and helps to remove systematic once-per-revolution orbit errors that have so far affected the Galileo orbit determination. Parameters of a simple a priori cuboid model suitable for the IOV satellites are established from the analysis of a long-term set of GNSS observations collected with the global network of the Multi-GNSS Experiment of the International GNSS Service. The model is finally demonstrated to reduce the peak magnitude of radial orbit errors from presently 20 cm down to 5 cm outside eclipse phases.

  18. Risk Assessment of Physiological Effects of Atmospheric Composition and Pressure in Constellation Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scheuring, Richard A.; Conkin, Johnny; Jones, J. A.; Gernhardt, M.

    2007-01-01

    To limit the risk of fire and reduce denitrogenation time to prevent decompression sickness to support frequent extravehicular activities on the Moon, a hypobaric (PB = 414 mmHg) and mildly hypoxic (ppO2 = 132 mmHg, 32% O2 - 68% N2) living environment is considered for the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM). With acute change in ppO2 from 145-178 mmHg at standard vehicular operating pressure to less than 125 mmHg at desired lunar surface vehicular operating pressures, there is the possibility that some crewmembers may develop symptoms of Acute Mountain Sickness (AMS). The signs and symptoms of AMS (headache plus nausea, dizziness, fatigue, or sleeplessness), could impact crew health and performance on lunar surface missions. An exhaustive literature review on the topic of the physiological effects of reduced ppO2 and absolute pressure as may contribute to the development of altitude symptoms or AMS was performed. The results of the nine most rigorous studies were collated, analyzed and contents on AMS and hypoxia symptoms summarized. There is evidence for an absolute pressure effect per se on AMS, so the higher the altitude for a given hypoxic alveolar O2 partial pressure (PAO2), the greater the AMS response. About 25% of adults are likely to experience mild AMS near 2,000 m altitude following a rapid ascent from sea level while breathing air (6,500 feet, acute PAO2 = 75 mmHg). The operational experience with the Shuttle staged denitrogenation protocol at 528 mmHg (3,048 m) while breathing 26.5% O2 (acute PAO2 = 85 mmHg) in astronauts adapting to microgravity suggests a similar likely experience in the proposed CEV environment. We believe the risk of mild AMS is greater given a PAO2 of 77 mmHg at 4,876 m altitude while breathing 32% O2 than at 1,828 m altitude while breathing 21% O2. Only susceptible astronauts would develop mild and transient AMS with prolonged exposure to 414 mmHg (4,876 m) while breathing 32% O2 (acute PAO2

  19. Blood pressure categories and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease according to age group in Japanese men and women.

    PubMed

    Fujiyoshi, Akira; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Miura, Katsuyuki; Murakami, Yoshitaka; Nagasawa, Shin-Ya; Okamura, Tomonori; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2012-09-01

    Blood pressure (BP) categories defined by systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) are commonly used. However, the BP category-specific risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has not been thoroughly investigated in different age groups. The aim of this study was to assess long-term CVD risk and its impact according to BP categories and age group. Pooling individual data from 10 cohorts, we studied 67 309 Japanese individuals (40-89 years old) who were free of CVD at baseline: we categorized them as belonging to three age groups: 'middle-aged' (40-64 years), 'elderly' (65-74 years) and 'very elderly' (75-89 years). BP was classified according to the 2009 Japanese Society of Hypertension Guidelines. Cox models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios for CVD deaths. We observed 1944 CVD deaths over a mean follow-up of 10.2 years. In all age groups, the overall relationship between BP category and CVD risk was positive, with a greater strength observed for younger age groups. We observed a trend of increased risk from SBP/DBP ≥ 130/85 mm Hg in the very elderly, and a significant increase from SBP/DBP ≥ 120/80 mm Hg in the other age groups. The population attributable fractions (PAFs) of CVD death in reference to the SBP/DBP<120/80 mm Hg category ranged from 23.4% in the very elderly to 60.3% in the middle-aged. We found an overall graded increase in CVD risk with higher BP category in the very elderly. The PAFs suggest that keeping BP levels low is an important strategy for primary CVD prevention, even in an elderly population.

  20. Cerebral perfusion pressure and risk of brain hypoxia in severe head injury: a prospective observational study

    PubMed Central

    Marín-Caballos, Antonio J; Murillo-Cabezas, Francisco; Cayuela-Domínguez, Aurelio; Domínguez-Roldán, Jose M; Rincón-Ferrari, M Dolores; Valencia-Anguita, Julio; Flores-Cordero, Juan M; Muñoz-Sánchez, M Angeles

    2005-01-01

    Introduction Higher and lower cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) thresholds have been proposed to improve brain tissue oxygen pressure (PtiO2) and outcome. We study the distribution of hypoxic PtiO2 samples at different CPP thresholds, using prospective multimodality monitoring in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. Methods This is a prospective observational study of 22 severely head injured patients admitted to a neurosurgical critical care unit from whom multimodality data was collected during standard management directed at improving intracranial pressure, CPP and PtiO2. Local PtiO2 was continuously measured in uninjured areas and snapshot samples were collected hourly and analyzed in relation to simultaneous CPP. Other variables that influence tissue oxygen availability, mainly arterial oxygen saturation, end tidal carbon dioxide, body temperature and effective hemoglobin, were also monitored to keep them stable in order to avoid non-ischemic hypoxia. Results Our main results indicate that half of PtiO2 samples were at risk of hypoxia (defined by a PtiO2 equal to or less than 15 mmHg) when CPP was below 60 mmHg, and that this percentage decreased to 25% and 10% when CPP was between 60 and 70 mmHg and above 70 mmHg, respectively (p < 0.01). Conclusion Our study indicates that the risk of brain tissue hypoxia in severely head injured patients could be really high when CPP is below the normally recommended threshold of 60 mmHg, is still elevated when CPP is slightly over it, but decreases at CPP values above it. PMID:16356218

  1. Risk Stratification by 24-Hour Ambulatory Blood Pressure and Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in 5322 Subjects From 11 Populations

    PubMed Central

    Boggia, José; Thijs, Lutgarde; Li, Yan; Hansen, Tine W.; Kikuya, Masahiro; Björklund-Bodegård, Kristina; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Dolan, Eamon; Kuznetsova, Tatiana; Stolarz-Skrzypek, Katarzyna; Tikhonoff, Valérie; Malyutina, Sofia; Casiglia, Edoardo; Nikitin, Yuri; Lind, Lars; Schwedt, Emma; Sandoya, Edgardo; Kawecka-Jaszcz, Kalina; Filipovský, Jan; Imai, Yutaka; Wang, Jiguang; Ibsen, Hans; O’Brien, Eoin; Staessen, Jan A.

    2013-01-01

    No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322 subjects (median age, 51.8 years; 43.1% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations, who had baseline measurements of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP24) and eGFR. We computed hazard ratios using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In fully adjusted models, which included both ABP24 and eGFR, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.008) both total (513 deaths) and cardiovascular (206) mortality; eGFR only predicted cardiovascular mortality (P=0.012). Furthermore, ABP24 predicted (P≤0.0056) fatal combined with nonfatal events as a result of all cardiovascular causes (555 events), cardiac disease (335 events), or stroke (218 events), whereas eGFR only predicted the composite cardiovascular end point and stroke (P≤0.035). The interaction terms between ABP24 and eGFR were all nonsignificant (P≥0.082). For cardiovascular mortality, the composite cardiovascular end point, and stroke, ABP24 added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.14%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses stratified for ethnicity, sex, and the presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) were confirmatory. In conclusion, in the general population, eGFR predicts fewer end points than ABP24. Relative to ABP24, eGFR is as an additive, not a multiplicative, risk factor and refines risk stratification 2- to 14-fold less. PMID:23172928

  2. Assessing patients' risk of febrile neutropenia: is there a correlation between physician-assessed risk and model-predicted risk?

    PubMed

    Lyman, Gary H; Dale, David C; Legg, Jason C; Abella, Esteban; Morrow, Phuong Khanh; Whittaker, Sadie; Crawford, Jeffrey

    2015-08-01

    This study evaluated the correlation between the risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) estimated by physicians and the risk of severe neutropenia or FN predicted by a validated multivariate model in patients with nonmyeloid malignancies receiving chemotherapy. Before patient enrollment, physician and site characteristics were recorded, and physicians self-reported the FN risk at which they would typically consider granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) primary prophylaxis (FN risk intervention threshold). For each patient, physicians electronically recorded their estimated FN risk, orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (yes/no), and patient characteristics for model predictions. Correlations between physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk (primary endpoints) and between physician-assessed FN risk and G-CSF orders were calculated. Overall, 124 community-based oncologists registered; 944 patients initiating chemotherapy with intermediate FN risk enrolled. Median physician-assessed FN risk over all chemotherapy cycles was 20.0%, and median model-predicted risk was 17.9%; the correlation was 0.249 (95% CI, 0.179-0.316). The correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and subsequent orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis (n = 634) was 0.313 (95% CI, 0.135-0.472). Among patients with a physician-assessed FN risk ≥ 20%, 14% did not receive G-CSF orders. G-CSF was not ordered for 16% of patients at or above their physician's self-reported FN risk intervention threshold (median, 20.0%) and was ordered for 21% below the threshold. Physician-assessed FN risk and model-predicted risk correlated weakly; however, there was moderate correlation between physician-assessed FN risk and orders for G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further research and education on FN risk factors and appropriate G-CSF use are needed.

  3. A Simplified Two-Component Model of Blood Pressure Fluctuation

    PubMed Central

    Brychta, Robert J.; Shiavi, Richard; Robertson, David; Biaggioni, Italo; Diedrich, André

    2007-01-01

    We propose a simple moving-average (MA) model that uses the low-frequency (LF) component of the peroneal muscle sympathetic nerve spike rate (LFspike rate) and the high-frequency (HF) component of respiration (HFResp) to describe the LF neurovascular fluctuations and the HF mechanical oscillations in systolic blood pressure (SBP), respectively. This method was validated by data from eight healthy subjects (23–47 yr old, 6 male, 2 female) during a graded tilt (15° increments every 5 min to a 60° angle). The LF component of SBP (LFSBP) had a strong baroreflex-mediated feedback correlation with LFspike rate (r = −0.69 ± 0.05) and also a strong feedforward relation to LFspike rate [r = 0.58 ± 0.03 with LFSBP delay (τ) = 5.625 ± 0.15 s]. The HF components of spike rate (HFspike rate) and SBP (HFSBP) were not significantly correlated. Conversely, HFResp and HFSBP were highly correlated (r = −0.79 ± 0.04), whereas LFResp and LFSBP were significantly less correlated (r = 0.45 ± 0.08). The mean correlation coefficients between the measured and model-predicted LFSBP (r = 0.74 ± 0.03) in the supine position did not change significantly during tilt. The mean correlation between the measured and model-predicted HFSBP was 0.89 ± 0.02 in the supine position. R2 values for the regression analysis of the model-predicted and measured LF and HF powers indicate that 78 and 91% of the variability in power can be explained by the linear relation of LFspike rate to LFSBP and HFResp to HFSBP. We report a simple two-component model using neural sympathetic and mechanical respiratory inputs that can explain the majority of blood pressure fluctuation at rest and during orthostatic stress in healthy subjects. PMID:17012354

  4. Fluid-structure Interaction Modeling of Aneurysmal Conditions with High and Normal Blood Pressures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torii, Ryo; Oshima, Marie; Kobayashi, Toshio; Takagi, Kiyoshi; Tezduyar, Tayfun E.

    2006-09-01

    Hemodynamic factors like the wall shear stress play an important role in cardiovascular diseases. To investigate the influence of hemodynamic factors in blood vessels, the authors have developed a numerical fluid-structure interaction (FSI) analysis technique. The objective is to use numerical simulation as an effective tool to predict phenomena in a living human body. We applied the technique to a patient-specific arterial model, and with that we showed the effect of wall deformation on the WSS distribution. In this paper, we compute the interaction between the blood flow and the arterial wall for a patient-specific cerebral aneurysm with various hemodynamic conditions, such as hypertension. We particularly focus on the effects of hypertensive blood pressure on the interaction and the WSS, because hypertension is reported to be a risk factor in rupture of aneurysms. We also aim to show the possibility of FSI computations with hemodynamic conditions representing those risk factors in cardiovascular disease. The simulations show that the transient behavior of the interaction under hypertensive blood pressure is significantly different from the interaction under normal blood pressure. The transient behavior of the blood-flow velocity, and the resulting WSS and the mechanical stress in the aneurysmal wall, are significantly affected by hypertension. The results imply that hypertension affects the growth of an aneurysm and the damage in arterial tissues.

  5. Risk Assessment Tool for Pressure Ulcer Development in Indian Surgical Wards.

    PubMed

    Kumari, Sushma; Sharma, Deborshi; Rana, Anshika; Pathak, Reetesh; Lal, Romesh; Kumar, Ajay; Biswal, U C

    2015-06-01

    The aims of this paper were to compare the predictive validity of three pressure ulcer (PU) risk scales-the Norton scale, the Braden scale, and the Waterlow scale-and to choose the most appropriate calculator for predicting PU risk in surgical wards of India. This is an observational prospective cohort study in a tertiary educational hospital in New Delhi among 100 surgical ward patients from April to July 2011. The main outcomes measured included sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PVP) and negative predictive value (PVN), and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the three PU risk assessment scales. Based on the cutoff points found most appropriate in this study, the sensitivity, specificity, PVP, and PVN were as follows: the Norton scale (cutoff, 16) had the values of 95.6, 93.5, 44.8, and 98.6, respectively; the Braden scale (cutoff, 17) had values of 100, 89.6, 42.5, and 100, respectively; and the Waterlow scale (cutoff, 11) had 91.3, 84.4, 38.8, and 97, respectively. According to the ROC curve, the Norton scale is the most appropriate tool. Factors such as physical condition, activity, mobility, body mass index (BMI), nutrition, friction, and shear are extremely significant in determining risk of PU development (p < 0.0001). The Norton scale is most effective in predicting PU risk in Indian surgical wards. BMI, mobility, activity, nutrition, friction, and shear are the most significant factors in Indian surgical ward settings with necessity for future comparison with established scales.

  6. Invasively Measured Aortic Systolic Blood Pressure and Office Systolic Blood Pressure in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Laugesen, Esben; Knudsen, Søren T; Hansen, Klavs W; Rossen, Niklas B; Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Hansen, Michael G; Munkholm, Henrik; Thomsen, Kristian K; Søndergaard, Hanne; Bøttcher, Morten; Raungaard, Bent; Madsen, Morten; Hulman, Adam; Witte, Daniel; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Poulsen, Per L

    2016-09-01

    Aortic systolic blood pressure (BP) represents the hemodynamic cardiac and cerebral burden more directly than office systolic BP. Whether invasively measured aortic systolic BP confers additional prognostic value beyond office BP remains debated. In this study, office systolic BP and invasively measured aortic systolic BP were recorded in 21 908 patients (mean age: 63 years; 58% men; 14% with diabetes mellitus) with stable angina pectoris undergoing elective coronary angiography during January 2001 to December 2012. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the association with incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and death. Discrimination and reclassification were assessed using Harrell's C and the Continuous Net Reclassification Index. Data were analyzed with and without stratification by diabetes mellitus status. During a median follow-up period of 3.7 years (range: 0.1-10.8 years), 422 strokes, 511 myocardial infarctions, and 1530 deaths occurred. Both office and aortic systolic BP were associated with stroke in patients with diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio per 10 mm Hg, 1.18 [95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.30] and 1.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.24], respectively) and with myocardial infarction in patients without diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.12] and 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.10], respectively). In models including both BP measurements, aortic BP lost statistical significance and aortic BP did not confer improvement in either C-statistics or net reclassification analysis. In conclusion, invasively measured aortic systolic BP does not add prognostic information about cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality compared with office BP in patients with stable angina pectoris, either with or without diabetes mellitus. PMID:27402917

  7. Invasively Measured Aortic Systolic Blood Pressure and Office Systolic Blood Pressure in Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Laugesen, Esben; Knudsen, Søren T; Hansen, Klavs W; Rossen, Niklas B; Jensen, Lisette Okkels; Hansen, Michael G; Munkholm, Henrik; Thomsen, Kristian K; Søndergaard, Hanne; Bøttcher, Morten; Raungaard, Bent; Madsen, Morten; Hulman, Adam; Witte, Daniel; Bøtker, Hans Erik; Poulsen, Per L

    2016-09-01

    Aortic systolic blood pressure (BP) represents the hemodynamic cardiac and cerebral burden more directly than office systolic BP. Whether invasively measured aortic systolic BP confers additional prognostic value beyond office BP remains debated. In this study, office systolic BP and invasively measured aortic systolic BP were recorded in 21 908 patients (mean age: 63 years; 58% men; 14% with diabetes mellitus) with stable angina pectoris undergoing elective coronary angiography during January 2001 to December 2012. Multivariate Cox models were used to assess the association with incident myocardial infarction, stroke, and death. Discrimination and reclassification were assessed using Harrell's C and the Continuous Net Reclassification Index. Data were analyzed with and without stratification by diabetes mellitus status. During a median follow-up period of 3.7 years (range: 0.1-10.8 years), 422 strokes, 511 myocardial infarctions, and 1530 deaths occurred. Both office and aortic systolic BP were associated with stroke in patients with diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio per 10 mm Hg, 1.18 [95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.30] and 1.14 [95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.24], respectively) and with myocardial infarction in patients without diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio, 1.07 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.12] and 1.05 [95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.10], respectively). In models including both BP measurements, aortic BP lost statistical significance and aortic BP did not confer improvement in either C-statistics or net reclassification analysis. In conclusion, invasively measured aortic systolic BP does not add prognostic information about cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality compared with office BP in patients with stable angina pectoris, either with or without diabetes mellitus.

  8. Reduced Uterine Perfusion Pressure (RUPP) Model of Preeclampsia in Mice

    PubMed Central

    Fushima, Tomofumi; Sekimoto, Akiyo; Minato, Takahiro; Ito, Takuya; Oe, Yuji; Kisu, Kiyomi; Sato, Emiko; Funamoto, Kenichi; Hayase, Toshiyuki; Kimura, Yoshitaka; Ito, Sadayoshi; Sato, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Nobuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy-induced hypertension with proteinuria that typically develops after 20 weeks of gestation. A reduction in uterine blood flow causes placental ischemia and placental release of anti-angiogenic factors such as sFlt-1 followed by PE. Although the reduced uterine perfusion pressure (RUPP) model is widely used in rats, investigating the role of genes on PE using genetically engineered animals has been problematic because it has been difficult to make a useful RUPP model in mice. To establish a RUPP model of PE in mice, we bilaterally ligated ovarian vessels distal to ovarian branches, uterine vessels, or both in ICR-strain mice at 14.5 days post coitum (dpc). Consequently, these mice had elevated BP, increased urinary albumin excretion, severe endotheliosis, and mesangial expansion. They also had an increased incidence of miscarriage and premature delivery. Embryonic weight at 18.5 dpc was significantly lower than that in sham mice. The closer to the ligation site the embryos were, the higher the resorption rate and the lower the embryonic weight. The phenotype was more severe in the order of ligation at the ovarian vessels < uterine vessels < both. Unlike the RUPP models described in the literature, this model did not constrict the abdominal aorta, which allowed BP to be measured with a tail cuff. This novel RUPP model in mice should be useful for investigating the pathogenesis of PE in genetically engineered mice and for evaluating new therapies for PE. PMID:27187738

  9. Nondissipative Velocity and Pressure Regularizations for the ICON Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Restelli, M.; Giorgetta, M.; Hundertmark, T.; Korn, P.; Reich, S.

    2009-04-01

    A challenging aspect in the numerical simulation of atmospheric and oceanic flows is the multiscale character of the problem both in space and time. The small spacial scales are generated by the turbulent energy and enstrophy cascades, and are usually dealt with by means of turbulence parametrizations, while the small temporal scales are governed by the propagation of acoustic and gravity waves, which are of little importance for the large scale dynamics and are often eliminated by means of a semi-implicit time discretization. We propose to treat both phenomena of subgrid turbulence and temporal scale separation in a unified way by means of nondissipative regularizations of the underlying model equations. More precisely, we discuss the use of two regularized equation sets: the velocity regularization, also know as Lagrangian averaged Navier-Stokes system, and the pressure regularization. Both regularizations are nondissipative since they do not enhance the dissipation of energy and enstrophy of the flow. The velocity regularization models the effects of the subgrid velocity fluctuations on the mean flow, it has thus been proposed as a turbulence parametrization and it has been found to yield promising results in ocean modeling [HHPW08]. In particular, the velocity regularization results in a higher variability of the numerical solution. The pressure regularization, discussed in [RWS07], modifies the propagation of acoustic and gravity waves so that the resulting system can be discretized explicitly in time with time steps analogous to those allowed by a semi-implicit method. Compared to semi-implicit time integrators, however, the pressure regularization takes fully into account the geostrophic balance of the flow. We discuss here the implementation of the velocity and pressure regularizations within the numerical framework of the ICON general circulation model (GCM) [BR05] for the case of the rotating shallow water system, showing how the original numerical

  10. Whole-body mathematical model for simulating intracranial pressure dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lakin, William D. (Inventor); Penar, Paul L. (Inventor); Stevens, Scott A. (Inventor); Tranmer, Bruce I. (Inventor)

    2007-01-01

    A whole-body mathematical model (10) for simulating intracranial pressure dynamics. In one embodiment, model (10) includes 17 interacting compartments, of which nine lie entirely outside of intracranial vault (14). Compartments (F) and (T) are defined to distinguish ventricular from extraventricular CSF. The vasculature of the intracranial system within cranial vault (14) is also subdivided into five compartments (A, C, P, V, and S, respectively) representing the intracranial arteries, capillaries, choroid plexus, veins, and venous sinus. The body's extracranial systemic vasculature is divided into six compartments (I, J, O, Z, D, and X, respectively) representing the arteries, capillaries, and veins of the central body and the lower body. Compartments (G) and (B) include tissue and the associated interstitial fluid in the intracranial and lower regions. Compartment (Y) is a composite involving the tissues, organs, and pulmonary circulation of the central body and compartment (M) represents the external environment.

  11. Extended fluid models: Pressure tensor effects and equilibria

    SciTech Connect

    Cerri, S. S.; Henri, P.; Califano, F.; Pegoraro, F.; Del Sarto, D.; Faganello, M.

    2013-11-15

    We consider the use of “extended fluid models” as a viable alternative to computationally demanding kinetic simulations in order to manage the global large scale evolution of a collisionless plasma while accounting for the main effects that come into play when spatial micro-scales of the order of the ion inertial scale d{sub i} and of the thermal ion Larmor radius ρ{sub i} are formed. We present an extended two-fluid model that retains finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections to the ion pressure tensor while electron inertia terms and heat fluxes are neglected. Within this model we calculate analytic FLR plasma equilibria in the presence of a shear flow and elucidate the role of the magnetic field asymmetry. Using a Hybrid Vlasov code, we show that these analytic equilibria offer a significant improvement with respect to conventional magnetohydrodynamic shear-flow equilibria when initializing kinetic simulations.

  12. Generic risk insights for Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering pressurized water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, R.; Taylor, J.; Fresco, A. ); Chung, J. )

    1990-11-01

    A methodology has been developed to extract generic risk-based information from probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of Westinghouse and Combustion Engineering (CE) pressurized water reactors (PWRs) and apply the insights gained to Westinghouse and Ce plants have not been subjected to a PRA. The available PRAs (five Westinghouse plants and one CE plant) were examined to identify the most probable, i.e., dominant accident sequences at each plant. The goal was to include all sequences which represented at least 80% of core damage frequency. If the same plant specific dominant accident sequence appeared within this boundary in at least two plant PRAs, the sequence was considered to be a representative sequence. Eleven sequences met this definition. From these sequences, the most important component failures and human errors that contributed to each sequence have been prioritized. Guidance is provided to prioritize the representative sequences and modify selected basic events that have been shown to be sensitive to the plant specific design or operating variations of the contributing PRAs. This risk-based guidance can be used for utility and NRC activities including operator training maintenance, design review, and inspections.

  13. NASA's Current Evidence and Hypothesis for the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Otto, Christian A.; Norsk, Peter; Oubre, Cherie M.; Pass, Anastas F.; Tarver, William

    2012-01-01

    While 40 years of human spaceflight exploration has reported visual decrement to a certain extent in a subgroup of astronauts, recent data suggests that there is indeed a subset of crewmembers that experience refraction changes (hyperoptic shift), cotton wool spot formation, choroidal fold development, papilledema, optic nerve sheath distention and/or posterior globe flattening with varying degrees of severity and permanence. Pre and postflight ocular measures have identified a potential risk of permanent visual changes as a result of microgravity exposure, which has been defined as the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure risk (VIIP). The combination of symptoms are referred to as the VIIP syndrome. It is thought that the ocular structural and optic nerve changes are caused by events precipitated by the cephalad fluid shift crewmembers experience during long-duration spaceflight. Three important systems, ocular, cardiovascular, and central nervous, seem to be involved in the development of symptoms, but the etiology is still under speculation. It is believed that some crewmembers are more susceptible to these changes due to genetic/anatomical predisposition or lifestyle (fitness) related factors. Future research will focus on determining the etiology of the VIIP syndrome and development of mechanisms to mitigate the spaceflight risk.

  14. Structural equation modeling of risk factors for the development of eating disorder symptoms in female athletes.

    PubMed

    Williamson, D A; Netemeyer, R G; Jackman, L P; Anderson, D A; Funsch, C L; Rabalais, J Y

    1995-05-01

    Risk factors for the development of eating disorder symptoms in female college athletes were studied using structural equation modeling. Three risk factors: social influence for thinness, athletic performance anxiety, and self-appraisal of athletic achievement, were selected for study. The association of these risk factors and eating disorder symptoms was hypothesized to be mediated by overconcern with body size and shape. The study sample was 98 women recruited from eight sports teams at a major university. Structural equation modeling analysis supported the hypothesized model and cross-validation of the model showed the findings to be stable. The results of this correlational study suggested that eating disorder symptoms in college athletes are significantly influenced by the interaction of sociocultural pressure for thinness, athletic performance anxiety, and negative self-appraisal of athletic achievement. If these risk factors lead to overconcern with body size and shape, then the emergence of an eating disorder is more probable. PMID:7620479

  15. Risk assessment compatible fire models (RACFMs)

    SciTech Connect

    Lopez, A.R.; Gritzo, L.A.; Sherman, M.P.

    1998-07-01

    A suite of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Compatible Fire Models (RACFMs) has been developed to represent the hazard posed by a pool fire to weapon systems transported on the B52-H aircraft. These models represent both stand-off (i.e., the weapon system is outside of the flame zone but exposed to the radiant heat load from fire) and fully-engulfing scenarios (i.e., the object is fully covered by flames). The approach taken in developing the RACFMs for both scenarios was to consolidate, reconcile, and apply data and knowledge from all available resources including: data and correlations from the literature, data from an extensive full-scale fire test program at the Naval Air Warfare Center (NAWC) at China Lake, and results from a fire field model (VULCAN). In the past, a single, effective temperature, T{sub f}, was used to represent the fire. The heat flux to an object exposed to a fire was estimated using the relationship for black body radiation, {sigma}T{sub f}{sup 4}. Significant improvements have been made by employing the present approach which accounts for the presence of temperature distributions in fully-engulfing fires, and uses best available correlations to estimate heat fluxes in stand-off scenarios.

  16. Using the split Hopkinson pressure bar to validate material models.

    PubMed

    Church, Philip; Cornish, Rory; Cullis, Ian; Gould, Peter; Lewtas, Ian

    2014-08-28

    This paper gives a discussion of the use of the split-Hopkinson bar with particular reference to the requirements of materials modelling at QinetiQ. This is to deploy validated material models for numerical simulations that are physically based and have as little characterization overhead as possible. In order to have confidence that the models have a wide range of applicability, this means, at most, characterizing the models at low rate and then validating them at high rate. The split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) is ideal for this purpose. It is also a very useful tool for analysing material behaviour under non-shock wave loading. This means understanding the output of the test and developing techniques for reliable comparison of simulations with SHPB data. For materials other than metals comparison with an output stress v strain curve is not sufficient as the assumptions built into the classical analysis are generally violated. The method described in this paper compares the simulations with as much validation data as can be derived from deployed instrumentation including the raw strain gauge data on the input and output bars, which avoids any assumptions about stress equilibrium. One has to take into account Pochhammer-Chree oscillations and their effect on the specimen and recognize that this is itself also a valuable validation test of the material model. PMID:25071238

  17. Using the split Hopkinson pressure bar to validate material models

    PubMed Central

    Church, Philip; Cornish, Rory; Cullis, Ian; Gould, Peter; Lewtas, Ian

    2014-01-01

    This paper gives a discussion of the use of the split-Hopkinson bar with particular reference to the requirements of materials modelling at QinetiQ. This is to deploy validated material models for numerical simulations that are physically based and have as little characterization overhead as possible. In order to have confidence that the models have a wide range of applicability, this means, at most, characterizing the models at low rate and then validating them at high rate. The split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) is ideal for this purpose. It is also a very useful tool for analysing material behaviour under non-shock wave loading. This means understanding the output of the test and developing techniques for reliable comparison of simulations with SHPB data. For materials other than metals comparison with an output stress v strain curve is not sufficient as the assumptions built into the classical analysis are generally violated. The method described in this paper compares the simulations with as much validation data as can be derived from deployed instrumentation including the raw strain gauge data on the input and output bars, which avoids any assumptions about stress equilibrium. One has to take into account Pochhammer–Chree oscillations and their effect on the specimen and recognize that this is itself also a valuable validation test of the material model. PMID:25071238

  18. RSRM Chamber Pressure Oscillations: Transit Time Models and Unsteady CFD

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesman, Tom; Stewart, Eric

    1996-01-01

    Space Shuttle solid rocket motor low frequency internal pressure oscillations have been observed since early testing. The same type of oscillations also are present in the redesigned solid rocket motor (RSRM). The oscillations, which occur during RSRM burn, are predominantly at the first three motor cavity longitudinal acoustic mode frequencies. Broadband flow and combustion noise provide the energy to excite these modes at low levels throughout motor burn, however, at certain times during burn the fluctuating pressure amplitude increases significantly. The increased fluctuations at these times suggests an additional excitation mechanism. The RSRM has inhibitors on the propellant forward facing surface of each motor segment. The inhibitors are in a slot at the segment field joints to prevent burning at that surface. The aft facing segment surface at a field joint slot burns and forms a cavity of time varying size. Initially the inhibitor is recessed in the field joint cavity. As propellant burns away the inhibitor begins to protrude into the bore flow. Two mechanisms (transit time models) that are considered potential pressure oscillation excitations are cavity-edge tones, and inhibitor hole-tones. Estimates of frequency variation with time of longitudinal acoustic modes, cavity edge-tones, and hole-tones compare favorably with frequencies measured during motor hot firing. It is believed that the highest oscillation amplitudes occur when vortex shedding frequencies coincide with motor longitudinal acoustic modes. A time accurate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) analysis was made to replicate the observations from motor firings and to observe the transit time mechanisms in detail. FDNS is the flow solver used to detail the time varying aspects of the flow. The fluid is approximated as a single-phase ideal gas. The CFD model was an axisymmetric representation of the RSRM at 80 seconds into burn.Deformation of the inhibitors by the internal flow was determined

  19. Breast Cancer Risk Assessment SAS Macro (Gail Model)

    Cancer.gov

    A SAS macro (commonly referred to as the Gail Model) that projects absolute risk of invasive breast cancer according to NCI’s Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT) algorithm for specified race/ethnic groups and age intervals.

  20. Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

    PubMed

    Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

    2010-01-01

    Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

  1. Risk Factors for Refractory and Delayed De novo Otitis Media Requiring Pressure Equalization Tube Insertion

    PubMed Central

    Bowe, Sarah N.; Jatana, Kris R.; Kang, D. Richard

    2016-01-01

    Objective Limited data exists regarding risk factors for otitis media in older children and specifically those for which surgical intervention is performed. This study investigated potential risk factors in this older age group who required pressure equalization tube (PET) insertion. Study design Retrospective cohort study Setting Tertiary care pediatric academic medical center Subjects and methods Children 6–12 years old undergoing PET insertion between October 1, 2010 and September 30, 2011. Data was stratified into two separate age cohorts (6–7 versus 8–12-year-olds) and compared using chi-square analysis. Results A total of 263 patients met study criteria. PET insertion was most common in 6 year-olds (36%, 95/263). Presence of siblings (p=0.03) and history of recurrent upper respiratory tract infection (p<0.01), otalgia (p<0.05), otorrhea (p<0.001), and nasal discharge (p<0.001) were common in the older cohort. No statistical difference was found for history of recurrent acute otitis media, allergy, asthma, or atopy between the two groups (p=0.23–0.92), although the overall prevalence of these conditions was high in both cohorts. Conclusion The 8–12-year-olds had a history of recurrent upper respiratory tract infection and more infectious symptoms than the 6–7-year-olds. Atopy can lead to a heightened susceptibility to upper respiratory tract infections and potential increase in the relative risk of otitis media. In our patient population, while there was no statistically significant difference in history of asthma, allergy, or atopy, the overall prevalence within both cohorts was relatively high. Therefore, this study provides insight into many pertinent and potentially modifiable risk factors for older children requiring PET insertion. PMID:27175444

  2. Velocity and pressure characteristics of a model SSME high pressure fuel turbopump

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tse, D. G-N.; Sabnis, J. S.; Mcdonald, H.

    1991-01-01

    Under the present effort an experiment rig has been constructed, an instrumentation package developed and a series of mean and rms velocity and pressure measurements made in a turbopump which modelled the first stage of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Fuel Turbopump. The rig was designed so as to allow initial experiments with a single configuration consisting of a bell-mouth inlet, a flight impeller, a vaneless diffuser and a volute. Allowance was made for components such as inlet guide vanes, exit guide vanes, downstream pumps, etc. to be added in future experiments. This flexibility will provide a clear baseline set of experiments and allow evaluation in later experiments of the effect of adding specific components upon the pump performance properties. The rotational speed of the impeller was varied between 4260 and 7680 rpm which covered the range of scaled SSME rotation speeds when due allowance is made for the differing stagnation temperature, model to full scale. The results at the inlet obtained with rotational speeds of 4260, 6084 and 7680 rpm showed that the axial velocity at the bell-mouth inlet remained roughly constant at 2.2 of the bulk velocity at the exit of the turbopump near the center of the inlet, but it decreased rapidly with increasing radius at all three speeds. Reverse flow occurred at a radius greater than 0.9 R for all three speeds and the maximum negative velocity reduced from 1.3 of the bulk velocity at the exit of the turbopump at 4260 rpm to 0.35 at 7680 rpm, suggesting that operating at a speed closer to the design condition of 8700 rpm improved the inlet characteristics. The reverse flow caused positive prerotation at the impeller inlet which was negligibly small near the center but reached 0.7 of the impeller speed at the outer annulus. The results in the diffuser and the volute obtained at 7680 rpm show that the hub and shroud walls of the diffuser were characterized by regions of transient reverse flow with

  3. Measuring and modelling pollution for risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Zidek, J V; Le, N D

    1999-01-01

    The great scale and complexity of environmental risk analysis offers major methodological challenges to those engaged in policymaking. In this paper we describe some of those challenges from the perspective gained through our work at the University of British Columbia (UBC). We describe some of our experiences with respect to the difficult problems of formulating environmental standards and developing abatement strategies. A failed but instructive attempt to find support for experiments on a promising method of reducing acid rain will be described. Then we describe an approach to scenario analysis under hypothetical new standards. Even with measurements of ambient environmental conditions in hand the problem of inferring actual human exposures remains. For example, in very hot weather people will tend to stay inside and population levels of exposure to e.g. ozone could be well below those predicted by the ambient measurements. Setting air quality criteria should ideally recognize the discrepancies likely to arise. Computer models that incorporate spatial random pollution fields and predict actual exposures from ambient levels will be described. From there we turn to the statistical issues of measurement and modelling and some of the contributions in these areas by the UBC group and its partners elsewhere. In particular we discuss the problem of measurement error when non-linear regression models are used. We sketch our approach to imputing unmeasured predictors needed in such models, deferring details to references cited below. We describe in general terms how those imputed measurements and their errors can be accommodated within the framework of health impact analysis.

  4. Digital models for arterial pressure and respiratory waveforms.

    PubMed

    Murthy, I S; Sita, G

    1993-08-01

    Digital models for arterial pressure pulse (APP) and respiratory volume waveforms (RVW) are proposed for efficient representation of these signals. When these signals are discrete cosine transformed (DCT), the pole-zero technique of Steiglitz-McBride (SM) gave system functions of much lower order than those obtained directly from the signals. The DCT of a bell-shaped biphasic wave needed two poles and two zeros. Based on this, the model order is fixed by the number of distinct peaks in the magnitude spectrum of the transformed APP/RVW signal. The partial fraction expansion (PFE) of the system function allowed delineation of component waves present in the time signal. The angles of model poles and zeros enabled easy determination of several important features from both of these signals. The model performance is evaluated using the normalized root mean-square error (NRMSE). A Bayes classifier using the pole angles as the feature vector performed satisfactorily when a limited number of RVW's recorded under deep and rapid maneuver are classified into normal (n) and abnormal (ab) categories of respiratory pathways. PMID:8258438

  5. Blood pressure reactivity to psychological stress and coronary calcification in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Karen A; Zhu, Sha; Tucker, Diane C; Whooley, Mary A

    2006-03-01

    A longstanding hypothesis is that individuals who exhibit large increases in blood pressure during psychological stress are at risk for atherosclerosis. We tested whether blood pressure changes during psychological stress predict subsequent coronary calcification (CaC) in young healthy adults. We evaluated 2816 healthy black and white women, 20 to 35 years of age, from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, who were not using medication for hypertension or diabetes in 1987-1988. Participants completed video game and star tracing tasks while their blood pressure was recorded. Thirteen years later (2000-2001), they completed computed tomography measures of CaC. Overall 9.3% (261 of 2816) had CaC present at follow-up. Each 10 mm Hg change in systolic blood pressure during the video game was associated with a 24% increased odds of having CaC at follow-up (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.46; P=0.008). This association persisted after adjustment for age, race, sex, education, smoking, alcohol, family history of myocardial infarction, smoking, daily alcohol consumption, body mass index, and resting or baseline blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.58; P=0.006). Blood pressure changes during the star tracing task were not associated with subsequent CaC. Blood pressure changes during a video game predicted the presence of CaC 13 years later. To our knowledge, this is the first study that reports blood pressure reactivity to a stressor being related to calcification in the coronary arteries. Blood pressure reactivity may provide useful prognostic information about future risk beyond standard risk factors. PMID:16446400

  6. Blood pressure reactivity to psychological stress and coronary calcification in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Karen A; Zhu, Sha; Tucker, Diane C; Whooley, Mary A

    2006-03-01

    A longstanding hypothesis is that individuals who exhibit large increases in blood pressure during psychological stress are at risk for atherosclerosis. We tested whether blood pressure changes during psychological stress predict subsequent coronary calcification (CaC) in young healthy adults. We evaluated 2816 healthy black and white women, 20 to 35 years of age, from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, who were not using medication for hypertension or diabetes in 1987-1988. Participants completed video game and star tracing tasks while their blood pressure was recorded. Thirteen years later (2000-2001), they completed computed tomography measures of CaC. Overall 9.3% (261 of 2816) had CaC present at follow-up. Each 10 mm Hg change in systolic blood pressure during the video game was associated with a 24% increased odds of having CaC at follow-up (unadjusted odds ratio, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.06 to 1.46; P=0.008). This association persisted after adjustment for age, race, sex, education, smoking, alcohol, family history of myocardial infarction, smoking, daily alcohol consumption, body mass index, and resting or baseline blood pressure (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.58; P=0.006). Blood pressure changes during the star tracing task were not associated with subsequent CaC. Blood pressure changes during a video game predicted the presence of CaC 13 years later. To our knowledge, this is the first study that reports blood pressure reactivity to a stressor being related to calcification in the coronary arteries. Blood pressure reactivity may provide useful prognostic information about future risk beyond standard risk factors.

  7. Modeling HIV Risk in Highly Vulnerable Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huba, G. J.; Panter, A. T.; Melchior, Lisa A.; Trevithick, Lee; Woods, Elizabeth R.; Wright, Eric; Feudo, Rudy; Tierney, Steven; Schneir, Arlene; Tenner, Adam; Remafedi, Gary; Greenberg, Brian; Sturdevant, Marsha; Goodman, Elizabeth; Hodgins, Antigone; Wallace, Michael; Brady, Russell E.; Singer, Barney; Marconi, Katherine

    2003-01-01

    This article examines the structure of several HIV risk behaviors in an ethnically and geographically diverse sample of 8,251 clients from 10 innovative demonstration projects intended for adolescents living with, or at risk for, HIV. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified 2 risk factors for men (sexual intercourse with men and a…

  8. Evaluation of the pressure ulcers risk scales with critically ill patients: a prospective cohort study 1

    PubMed Central

    Borghardt, Andressa Tomazini; do Prado, Thiago Nascimento; de Araújo, Thiago Moura; Rogenski, Noemi Marisa Brunet; Bringuente, Maria Edla de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    AIMS: to evaluate the accuracy of the Braden and Waterlow risk assessment scales in critically ill inpatients. METHOD: this prospective cohort study, with 55 patients in intensive care units, was performed through evaluation of sociodemographic and clinical variables, through the application of the scales (Braden and Waterlow) upon admission and every 48 hours; and through the evaluation and classification of the ulcers into categories. RESULTS: the pressure ulcer incidence was 30.9%, with the Braden and Waterlow scales presenting high sensitivity (41% and 71%) and low specificity (21% and 47%) respectively in the three evaluations. The cut off scores found in the first, second and third evaluations were 12, 12 and 11 in the Braden scale, and 16, 15 and 14 in the Waterlow scale. CONCLUSION: the Braden scale was shown to be a good screening instrument, and the Waterlow scale proved to have better predictive power. PMID:25806628

  9. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests

    PubMed Central

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M.; Urošević, Branko; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor—the debt-to-asset ratio R—in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes’s theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees—although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  10. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests.

    PubMed

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M; Urosevic, Branko; Stanley, H Eugene

    2010-10-26

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor--the debt-to-asset ratio R--in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes's theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees--although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers.

  11. Bankruptcy risk model and empirical tests.

    PubMed

    Podobnik, Boris; Horvatic, Davor; Petersen, Alexander M; Urosevic, Branko; Stanley, H Eugene

    2010-10-26

    We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor--the debt-to-asset ratio R--in order to study the stability of the Zipf distribution of R over time. We find that the Zipf exponent increases during market crashes, implying that firms go bankrupt with larger values of R. Based on the Zipf analysis, we employ Bayes's theorem and relate the conditional probability that a bankrupt firm has a ratio R with the conditional probability of bankruptcy for a firm with a given R value. For 2,737 bankrupt firms, we demonstrate size dependence in assets change during the bankruptcy proceedings. Prepetition firm assets and petition firm assets follow Zipf distributions but with different exponents, meaning that firms with smaller assets adjust their assets more than firms with larger assets during the bankruptcy process. We compare bankrupt firms with nonbankrupt firms by analyzing the assets and liabilities of two large subsets of the US economy: 2,545 Nasdaq members and 1,680 New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) members. We find that both assets and liabilities follow a Pareto distribution. The finding is not a trivial consequence of the Zipf scaling relationship of firm size quantified by employees--although the market capitalization of Nasdaq stocks follows a Pareto distribution, the same distribution does not describe NYSE stocks. We propose a coupled Simon model that simultaneously evolves both assets and debt with the possibility of bankruptcy, and we also consider the possibility of firm mergers. PMID:20937903

  12. Development and Validation of a Pressurization System Model for a Crossfeed Subscale Water Test Article

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nguyen, Han; Mazurkivich, Pete

    2006-01-01

    A pressurization system model was developed for a crossfeed subscale water test article using the EASY5 modeling software. The model consisted of an integrated tank pressurization and pressurization line model. The tank model was developed using the general purpose library, while the line model was assembled from the gas dynamic library. The pressurization system model was correlated to water test data obtained from nine test runs conducted on the crossfeed subscale test article. The model was first correlated to a representative test run and frozen. The correlated model was then used to predict the tank pressures and compared with the test data for eight other runs. The model prediction showed excellent agreement with the test data, allowing it to be used in a later study to analyze the pressurization system performance of a full-scale bimese vehicle with cryogenic propellants.

  13. Risk Assessment for Titanium Pressure Vessels Operating Inside the ARES I's Liquid Hydrogen Tank Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jonathan A.

    2008-01-01

    Titanium alloy (Ti-6-4) is currently being proposed for the manufacturing of pressure vessels (PV) for storage of compressed helium gas, which are mounted inside the ARES I's liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank. At cryogenic temperature, titanium alloys usually have the highest strength-to-weight ratio property and have been considered as the metallic materials of choice for lightweight PV operating in LH2 environment. Titanium PV s are also considered as heritage hardware because they have been used by NASA for the Saturn IV-B rocket s LH2 tank in the mid 1960 s. However, hydrogen embrittlement is possible if Ti-6-4 alloy is exposed to gaseous hydrogen at certain pressure and temperature during the LH2 tank filling and draining operations on the launch pad, and during the J2X engine burn period for the ARES I s upper stage. Additionally, the fracture toughness and ductility properties of Ti-6-4 are significantly decreased at cryogenic temperature. These factors do not necessary preclude the use of titanium PV in hydrogen or at cryogenic applications; however, their synergistic effects and the material damage tolerance must be accounted for in the mission life assessment for PV s, which are considered as fracture critical hardware. In this paper, an overview of the risk assessment for Ti-6-4 alloy, strategy to control hydrogen embrittlement and brief metallic material trade study for PV operating in LH2 tank will be presented.

  14. Model of Pressure Distribution in Vortex Flow Controls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mielczarek, Szymon; Sawicki, Jerzy M.

    2015-06-01

    Vortex valves belong to the category of hydrodynamic flow controls. They are important and theoretically interesting devices, so complex from hydraulic point of view, that probably for this reason none rational concept of their operation has been proposed so far. In consequence, functioning of vortex valves is described by CFD-methods (computer-aided simulation of technical objects) or by means of simple empirical relations (using discharge coefficient or hydraulic loss coefficient). Such rational model of the considered device is proposed in the paper. It has a simple algebraic form, but is well grounded physically. The basic quantitative relationship, which describes the valve operation, i.e. dependence between the flow discharge and the circumferential pressure head, caused by the rotation, has been verified empirically. Conformity between calculated and measured parameters of the device allows for acceptation of the proposed concept.

  15. Probabilistic Modeling Of Ocular Biomechanics In VIIP: Risk Stratification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feola, A.; Myers, J. G.; Raykin, J.; Nelson, E. S.; Mulugeta, L.; Samuels, B.; Ethier, C. R.

    2016-01-01

    Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome is a major health concern for long-duration space missions. Currently, it is thought that a cephalad fluid shift in microgravity causes elevated intracranial pressure (ICP) that is transmitted along the optic nerve sheath (ONS). We hypothesize that this in turn leads to alteration and remodeling of connective tissue in the posterior eye which impacts vision. Finite element (FE) analysis is a powerful tool for examining the effects of mechanical loads in complex geometries. Our goal is to build a FE analysis framework to understand the response of the lamina cribrosa and optic nerve head to elevations in ICP in VIIP. To simulate the effects of different pressures on tissues in the posterior eye, we developed a geometric model of the posterior eye and optic nerve sheath and used a Latin hypercubepartial rank correlation coef-ficient (LHSPRCC) approach to assess the influence of uncertainty in our input parameters (i.e. pressures and material properties) on the peak strains within the retina, lamina cribrosa and optic nerve. The LHSPRCC approach was repeated for three relevant ICP ranges, corresponding to upright and supine posture on earth, and microgravity [1]. At each ICP condition we used intraocular pressure (IOP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) measurements of in-flight astronauts provided by Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health Program, NASA Johnson Space Center. The lamina cribrosa, optic nerve, retinal vessel and retina were modeled as linear-elastic materials, while other tissues were modeled as a Mooney-Rivlin solid (representing ground substance, stiffness parameter c1) with embedded collagen fibers (stiffness parameters c3, c4 and c5). Geometry creationmesh generation was done in Gmsh [2], while FEBio was used for all FE simulations [3]. The LHSPRCC approach resulted in correlation coefficients in the range of 1. To assess the relative influence of the uncertainty in an input parameter on

  16. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  17. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  18. 42 CFR 425.600 - Selection of risk model.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Selection of risk model. 425.600 Section 425.600... Selection of risk model. (a) For its initial agreement period, an ACO may elect to operate under one of the following tracks: (1) Track 1. Under Track 1, the ACO operates under the one-sided model (as described...

  19. Research on R&D Project Risk Management Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xiaoyan; Cai, Chen; Song, Hao; Song, Juan

    R&D project is an exploratory high-risk investment activity and has potential management flexibility. In R&D project risk management process, it is hard to quantify risk with very little past information available. This paper introduces quality function deployment and real option in traditional project risk management process. Through waterfall decomposition mode, R&D project risk management process is constructed step by step; through real option, the managerial flexibility inherent in R&D project can be modeled. In the paper, first of all, according to the relation matrix between R&D project success factors and risk indexes, risk priority list can be obtained. Then, risk features of various stages are analyzed. Finally, real options are embedded into various stages of R&D project by the risk features. In order to effectively manage R&D risk in a dynamic cycle, the steps above should be carried out repeatedly.

  20. Use of a risk assessment method to improve the safety of negative pressure wound therapy.

    PubMed

    Lelong, Anne-Sophie; Martelli, Nicolas; Bonan, Brigitte; Prognon, Patrice; Pineau, Judith

    2014-06-01

    To conduct a risk analysis of the negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) care process and to improve the safety of NPWT, a working group of nurses, hospital pharmacists, physicians and hospital managers performed a risk analysis for the process of NPWT care. The failure modes, effects and criticality analysis (FMECA) method was used for this analysis. Failure modes and their consequences were defined and classified as a function of their criticality to identify priority actions for improvement. By contrast to classical FMECA, the criticality index (CI) of each consequence was calculated by multiplying occurrence, severity and detection scores. We identified 13 failure modes, leading to 20 different consequences. The CI of consequences was initially 712, falling to 357 after corrective measures were implemented. The major improvements proposed included the establishment of 6-monthly training cycles for nurses, physicians and surgeons and the introduction of computerised prescription for NPWT. The FMECA method also made it possible to prioritise actions as a function of the criticality ranking of consequences and was easily understood and used by the working group. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to use the FMECA method to improve the safety of NPWT.

  1. SY 13-4 CURRENT TRENDS IN BLOOD PRESSURE AND OTHER CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS IN ADOLESCENTS.

    PubMed

    Song, Young Hwan

    2016-09-01

    Hypertension is a major health problem in most developed and developing countries. Worldwide, about one billion people were found to have hypertension, and 13% of all deaths were closely related to hypertension. Secular trends in the prevalence of adult hypertension vary by country; some western countries show a decreasing trend for hypertension, while data from some developing countries show increasing prevalence of hypertension. So, it is difficult to predict the future changes in the prevalence of adult hypertension in some countries.Hypertension at an early age has been shown to develop into adulthood hypertension. Therefore, the investigation of the current trend in the prevalence of hypertension among children and adolescents would help us to predict the trend in the prevalence of adult hypertension in the future.In the present study, we show the recent trend in blood pressure in adolescents aged 10∼18 years, using the data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005∼2014). Additionally, we present the current changes in other cardiovascular risk factors including obesity indices (body mass index and waist circumference) and lipid profile, and the influences of physical activity and dietary patterns on these cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:27643126

  2. Lower stroke risk with lower blood pressure in hemodynamic cerebral ischemia

    PubMed Central

    Clarke, William R.; Grubb, Robert L.; Videen, Tom O.; Adams, Harold P.; Derdeyn, Colin P.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To determine whether strict blood pressure (BP) control is the best medical management for patients with symptomatic carotid artery occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia. Methods: In this prospective observational cohort study, we analyzed data from 91 participants in the nonsurgical group of the Carotid Occlusion Surgery Study (COSS) who had recent symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia manifested by ipsilateral increased oxygen extraction fraction. The target BP goal in COSS was ≤130/85 mm Hg. We compared the occurrence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke during follow-up in the 41 participants with mean BP ≤130/85 mm Hg to the remaining 50 with higher BP. Results: Of 16 total ipsilateral ischemic strokes that occurred during follow-up, 3 occurred in the 41 participants with mean follow-up BP of ≤130/85 mm Hg, compared to 13 in the remaining 50 participants with mean follow-up BP >130/85 mm Hg (hazard ratio 3.742, 95% confidence interval 1.065–13.152, log-rank p = 0.027). Conclusion: BPs ≤130/85 mm Hg were associated with lower subsequent stroke risk in these patients. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class III evidence that control of hypertension ≤130/85 mm Hg is associated with a reduced risk of subsequent ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with recently symptomatic carotid occlusion and hemodynamic cerebral ischemia (increased oxygen extraction fraction). PMID:24532276

  3. Salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk: what is the most adequate preventive strategy? A Swiss perspective

    PubMed Central

    Burnier, Michel; Wuerzner, Gregoire; Bochud, Murielle

    2015-01-01

    Among the various strategies to reduce the incidence of non-communicable diseases reduction of sodium intake in the general population has been recognized as one of the most cost-effective means because of its potential impact on the development of hypertension and cardiovascular diseases. Yet, this strategic health recommendation of the WHO and many other international organizations is far from being universally accepted. Indeed, there are still several unresolved scientific and epidemiological questions that maintain an ongoing debate. Thus what is the adequate low level of sodium intake to recommend to the general population and whether national strategies should be oriented to the overall population or only to higher risk fractions of the population such as salt-sensitive patients are still discussed. In this paper, we shall review the recent results of the literature regarding salt, blood pressure and cardiovascular risk and we present the recommendations recently proposed by a group of experts of Switzerland. The propositions of the participating medical societies are to encourage national health authorities to continue their discussion with the food industry in order to reduce the sodium intake of food products with a target of mean salt intake of 5–6 grams per day in the population. Moreover, all initiatives to increase the information on the effect of salt on health and on the salt content of food are supported. PMID:26321959

  4. Sex, the brain and hypertension: brain oestrogen receptors and high blood pressure risk factors.

    PubMed

    Hay, Meredith

    2016-01-01

    Hypertension is a major contributor to worldwide morbidity and mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. There are important sex differences in the onset and rate of hypertension in humans. Compared with age-matched men, premenopausal women are less likely to develop hypertension. However, after age 60, the incidence of hypertension increases in women and even surpasses that seen in older men. It is thought that changes in levels of circulating ovarian hormones as women age may be involved in the increase in hypertension in older women. One of the key mechanisms involved in the development of hypertension in both men and women is an increase in sympathetic nerve activity (SNA). Brain regions important for the regulation of SNA, such as the subfornical organ, the paraventricular nucleus and the rostral ventral lateral medulla, also express specific subtypes of oestrogen receptors. Each of these brain regions has also been implicated in mechanisms underlying risk factors for hypertension such as obesity, stress and inflammation. The present review brings together evidence that links actions of oestrogen at these receptors to modulate some of the common brain mechanisms involved in the ability of hypertensive risk factors to increase SNA and blood pressure. Understanding the mechanisms by which oestrogen acts at key sites in the brain for the regulation of SNA is important for the development of novel, sex-specific therapies for treating hypertension.

  5. Genetic Variants in Novel Pathways Influence Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Blood pressure (BP) is a heritable trait1 influenced by multiple biological pathways and is responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (BP ≥140 mm Hg systolic [SBP] or ≥90 mm Hg diastolic [DBP])2. Even small increments in BP are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events3. This genome-wide association study of SBP and DBP, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified 16 novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate BP (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3; NPR3-C5orf23; ADM; FURIN-FES; GOSR2; GNAS-EDN3); the other 10 provide new clues to BP physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke, and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with BP in East Asian, South Asian, and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of BP, and suggest novel potential therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention. PMID:21909115

  6. Proliferation Risk Characterization Model Prototype Model - User and Programmer Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Dukelow, J.S.; Whitford, D.

    1998-12-01

    A model for the estimation of the risk of diversion of weapons-capable materials was developed. It represents both the threat of diversion and site vulnerability as a product of a small number of variables (two to eight), each of which can take on a small number (two to four) of qualitatively defined (but quantitatively implemented) values. The values of the overall threat and vulnerability variables are then converted to threat and vulnerability categories. The threat and vulnerability categories are used to define the likelihood of diversion, also defined categorically. The evaluator supplies an estimate of the consequences of a diversion, defined categorically, but with the categories based on the IAEA Attractiveness levels. Likelihood and Consequences categories are used to define the Risk, also defined categorically. The threat, vulnerability, and consequences input provided by the evaluator contains a representation of his/her uncertainty in each variable assignment which is propagated all the way through to the calculation of the Risk categories. [Appendix G available on diskette only.

  7. Incremental predictive value of adding past blood pressure measurements to the Framingham hypertension risk equation: the Whitehall II Study.

    PubMed

    Kivimäki, Mika; Tabak, Adam G; Batty, G David; Ferrie, Jane E; Nabi, Hermann; Marmot, Michael G; Witte, Daniel R; Singh-Manoux, Archana; Shipley, Martin J

    2010-04-01

    Records of repeated examinations of blood pressure are increasingly available for primary care patients, but the use of this information in predicting incident hypertension remains unclear, because cohort studies with repeat blood pressure monitoring are rare. We compared the incremental value of using data on blood pressure history to a single measure as in the Framingham hypertension risk score, a validated hypertension risk prediction algorithm. Participants were 4314 London-based civil servants (1297 women) aged 35 to 68 years who were free from prevalent hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and coronary heart disease at baseline examination (the Whitehall II Study). Standard clinical examinations of blood pressure, weight and height, current cigarette smoking, and parental history of hypertension were undertaken on a 5-year basis. A total of 1052 incident (new-onset) cases of hypertension were observed in two 5-year baseline follow-up data cycles. Comparison of the Framingham risk score with a score additionally incorporating 5-year blood pressure history showed, at best, modest improvements in indicators of predictive performance: C statistics (0.796 versus 0.799), predicted:observed ratios (1.04 [95% CI: 0.95 to 1.15] versus 0.98 [95% CI: 0.89 to 1.08]), or Hosmer-Lemeshow chi(2) values (11.5 versus 6.5). The net reclassification improvement with the modified score was 9.3% (95% CI: 4.2% to 14.4%), resulting from a net 17.1% increase in nonhypertensives correctly identified as being at lower risk but a net 7.8% increase in hypertensives incorrectly identified as at lower risk. These data suggest that, despite the net reclassification improvement, the clinical use of adding repeat measures of blood pressure to the Framingham hypertension risk score may be limited.

  8. The Relationship of Retinal Vessel Diameters and Fractal Dimensions with Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

    PubMed Central

    Li, Qiaowei; Yuan, Yin; Gao, Zhonghai; Chen, Falin

    2014-01-01

    Background This study aimed to investigate the correlation between quantitative retinal vascular parameters such as central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) and retinal vascular fractal dimension (D(f)), and cardiovascular risk factors in the Chinese Han population residing in the in islands of southeast China. Methodology/Principle Findings In this cross-sectional study, fundus photographs were collected and semi-automated analysis software was used to analyze retinal vessel diameters and fractal dimensions. Cardiovascular risk factors such as relevant medical history, blood pressure (BP), lipids, and blood glucose data were collected. Subjects had a mean age of 51.9±12.0 years and included 812 (37.4%) males and 1,357 (62.6%) females. Of the subjects, 726 (33.5%) were overweight, 226 (10.4%) were obese, 272 (12.5%) had diabetes, 738 (34.0%) had hypertension, and 1,156 (53.3%) had metabolic syndrome. After controlling for the effects of potential confounders, multivariate analyses found that age (β = 0.06, P = 0.008), sex (β = 1.33, P = 0.015), mean arterial blood pressure (β = −0.12, P<0.001), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (β = −0.22, P = 0.008), and CRVE (β = 0.23, P<0.001) were significantly associated with CRAE. Age (β = −0.0012, P<0.001), BP classification (prehypertension: β = −0.0075, P = 0.014; hypertension: β = −0.0131, P = 0.002), and hypertension history (β = −0.0007, P = 0.009) were significantly associated with D(f). Conclusions/Significance D(f) exhibits a stronger association with BP than CRAE. Thus, D(f) may become a useful indicator of cardiovascular risk. PMID:25188273

  9. Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) as the reference standard for diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of vascular risk in adults.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Smolensky, Michael H; Ayala, Diana E; Portaluppi, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    New information has become available since the ISC, AAMCC, and SECAC released their first extensive guidedelines to improve the diagnosis and treatment of adult arterial hypertension. A critical assessment of evidence and a comparison of what international guidelines now propose are the basis for the following statements, which update the recommendations first issued in 2013. Office blood pressure (BP) measurements should no longer be considered to be the "gold standard" for the diagnosis of hypertension and assessment of cardiovascular risk. Relying on office BP, even when supplemented with at-home wake-time self-measurements, to identify high-risk individuals, disregarding circadian BP patterning and asleep BP level, leads to potential misclassification of 50% of all evaluated persons. Accordingly, ambulatory BP monitoring is the recommended reference standard for the diagnosis of true hypertension and accurate assessment of cardiovascular risk in all adults ≥18 yrs of age, regardless of whether office BP is normal or elevated. Asleep systolic BP mean is the most significant independent predictor of cardiovascular events. The sleep-time relative SBP decline adds prognostic value to the statistical model that already includes the asleep systolic BP mean and corrected for relevant confounding variables. Accordingly, the asleep systolic BP mean is the recommended protocol to diagnose hypertension, assess cardiovascular risk, and predict cardiovascular event-free interval. In men, and in the absence of compelling clinical conditions, reference thresholds for diagnosing hypertension are 120/70 mmHg for the asleep systolic/diastolic BP means derived from ambulatory BP monitoring. However, in women, in the absence of complicating co-morbidities, the same thresholds are lower by 10/5 mmHg, i.e., 110/65 mmHg for the asleep means. In high-risk patients, including those diagnosed with diabetes or chronic kidney disease, and/or those having experienced past

  10. Quadratic function between arterial partial oxygen pressure and mortality risk in sepsis patients: an interaction with simplified acute physiology score

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhongheng; Ji, Xuqing

    2016-01-01

    Oxygen therapy is widely used in emergency and critical care settings, while there is little evidence on its real therapeutic effect. The study aimed to explore the impact of arterial oxygen partial pressure (PaO2) on clinical outcomes in patients with sepsis. A large clinical database was employed for the study. Subjects meeting the diagnostic criteria of sepsis were eligible for the study. All measurements of PaO2 were extracted. The primary endpoint was death from any causes during hospital stay. Survey data analysis was performed by using individual ICU admission as the primary sampling unit. Quadratic function was assumed for PaO2 and its interaction with other covariates were explored. A total of 199,125 PaO2 samples were identified for 11,002 ICU admissions. Each ICU stay comprised 18 PaO2 samples in average. The fitted multivariable model supported our hypothesis that the effect of PaO2 on mortality risk was in quadratic form. There was significant interaction between PaO2 and SAPS-I (p = 0.007). Furthermore, the main effect of PaO2 on SOFA score was nonlinear. The study shows that the effect of PaO2 on mortality risk is in quadratic function form, and there is significant interaction between PaO2 and severity of illness. PMID:27734905

  11. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e

  12. African Americans show increased risk for pressure ulcers: a retrospective analysis of acute care hospitals in America.

    PubMed

    Fogerty, Mary; Guy, Jeffrey; Barbul, Adrian; Nanney, Lillian B; Abumrad, Naji N

    2009-01-01

    In an earlier study, we reported a significantly increased risk of pressure ulcer hospital discharge diagnoses in African Americans, higher age groups, and those with certain medical conditions. The objectives of the present study were to: (a) investigate the demographics associated with a higher odds ratio (OR) in African Americans and (b) determine whether African Americans have different rates of medical risk factors. The 2003 Nationwide Inpatient Sample database was queried. Patients with pressure ulcers were identified by discharge diagnoses using ICD-9 codes 707.0-707.09. Discharge diagnosis was examined using the agency for healthcare research and quality clinical classifications software (CCS). The present study used identified CCS discharge diagnoses present in at least 5% of all patients, with an OR>2. African Americans exhibited a higher incidence of an OR>2 for 28 identified CCS risk factors for pressure ulcers. The pressure ulcer diagnoses tended to occur at younger ages in African Americans. No significant differences were noted in African Americans with pressure ulcers when a subanalysis was conducted by zip code income quartile, region of the country, or teaching status of the hospital. Hospitalized African Americans exhibit an age-dependent, higher prevalence of pressure ulcers compared with Caucasians. Socioeconomic factors tracked within the Nationwide Inpatient Sample do not provide an explanation for this phenomenon.

  13. Modeling biotic habitat high risk areas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Despain, D.G.; Beier, P.; Tate, C.; Durtsche, B.M.; Stephens, T.

    2000-01-01

    Fire, especially stand replacing fire, poses a threat to many threatened and endangered species as well as their habitat. On the other hand, fire is important in maintaining a variety of successional stages that can be important for approach risk assessment to assist in prioritizing areas for allocation of fire mitigation funds. One example looks at assessing risk to the species and biotic communities of concern followed by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program. One looks at the risk to Mexican spottled owls. Another looks at the risk to cutthroat trout, and a fourth considers the general effects of fire and elk.

  14. [A model of blood pressure measurement which based on NN with raised accuracy].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Weiqi

    2011-07-01

    To address the accuracy problem of the oscillometric method in electronic blood pressure monitor, this paper introduces a more accurate new blood pressure measurement model, which based on ANN. And simulation checking method is put forward.

  15. SMALL POPULATIONS REQUIRE SPECIFIC MODELING APPROACHES FOR ASSESSING RISK

    EPA Science Inventory

    All populations face non-zero risks of extinction. However, the risks for small populations, and therefore the modeling approaches necessary to predict them, are different from those of large populations. These differences are currently hindering assessment of risk to small pop...

  16. A new explained-variance based genetic risk score for predictive modeling of disease risk.

    PubMed

    Che, Ronglin; Motsinger-Reif, Alison A

    2012-09-25

    The goal of association mapping is to identify genetic variants that predict disease, and as the field of human genetics matures, the number of successful association studies is increasing. Many such studies have shown that for many diseases, risk is explained by a reasonably large number of variants that each explains a very small amount of disease risk. This is prompting the use of genetic risk scores in building predictive models, where information across several variants is combined for predictive modeling. In the current study, we compare the performance of four previously proposed genetic risk score methods and present a new method for constructing genetic risk score that incorporates explained variance information. The methods compared include: a simple count Genetic Risk Score, an odds ratio weighted Genetic Risk Score, a direct logistic regression Genetic Risk Score, a polygenic Genetic Risk Score, and the new explained variance weighted Genetic Risk Score. We compare the methods using a wide range of simulations in two steps, with a range of the number of deleterious single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) explaining disease risk, genetic modes, baseline penetrances, sample sizes, relative risks (RR) and minor allele frequencies (MAF). Several measures of model performance were compared including overall power, C-statistic and Akaike's Information Criterion. Our results show the relative performance of methods differs significantly, with the new explained variance weighted GRS (EV-GRS) generally performing favorably to the other methods.

  17. Toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions modeling for pressurized liquefied gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Britter, Rex; Weil, Jeffrey; Leung, Joseph; Hanna, Steven

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this article is to report current toxic industrial chemical (TIC) source emissions formulas appropriate for use in atmospheric comprehensive risk assessment models so as to represent state-of-the-art knowledge. The focus is on high-priority scenarios, including two-phase releases of pressurized liquefied gases such as chlorine from rail cars. The total mass released and the release duration are major parameters, as well as the velocity, thermodynamic state, and amount and droplet sizes of imbedded aerosols of the material at the exit of the rupture, which are required as inputs to the subsequent jet and dispersion modeling. Because of the many possible release scenarios that could develop, a suite of model equations has been described. These allow for gas, two-phase or liquid storage and release through ruptures of various types including sharp-edged and "pipe-like" ruptures. Model equations for jet depressurization and phase change due to flashing are available. Consideration of the importance of vessel response to a rupture is introduced. The breakup of the jet into fine droplets and their subsequent suspension and evaporation, or rainout is still a significant uncertainty in the overall modeling process. The recommended models are evaluated with data from various TIC field experiments, in particular recent experiments with pressurized liquefied gases. It is found that there is typically a factor of two error in models compared with research-grade observations of mass flow rates. However, biases are present in models' estimates of the droplet size distributions resulting from flashing releases.

  18. Breast cancer risk assessment across the risk continuum: genetic and nongenetic risk factors contributing to differential model performance

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Clinicians use different breast cancer risk models for patients considered at average and above-average risk, based largely on their family histories and genetic factors. We used longitudinal cohort data from women whose breast cancer risks span the full spectrum to determine the genetic and nongenetic covariates that differentiate the performance of two commonly used models that include nongenetic factors - BCRAT, also called Gail model, generally used for patients with average risk and IBIS, also called Tyrer Cuzick model, generally used for patients with above-average risk. Methods We evaluated the performance of the BCRAT and IBIS models as currently applied in clinical settings for 10-year absolute risk of breast cancer, using prospective data from 1,857 women over a mean follow-up length of 8.1 years, of whom 83 developed cancer. This cohort spans the continuum of breast cancer risk, with some subjects at lower than average population risk. Therefore, the wide variation in individual risk makes it an interesting population to examine model performance across subgroups of women. For model calibration, we divided the cohort into quartiles of model-assigned risk and compared differences between assigned and observed risks using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) chi-squared statistic. For model discrimination, we computed the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) and the case risk percentiles (CRPs). Results The 10-year risks assigned by BCRAT and IBIS differed (range of difference 0.001 to 79.5). The mean BCRAT- and IBIS-assigned risks of 3.18% and 5.49%, respectively, were lower than the cohort's 10-year cumulative probability of developing breast cancer (6.25%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.0 to 7.8%). Agreement between assigned and observed risks was better for IBIS (HL X42 = 7.2, P value 0.13) than BCRAT (HL X42 = 22.0, P value <0.001). The IBIS model also showed better discrimination (AUC = 69.5%, CI = 63.8% to 75.2%) than did the BCRAT model

  19. Very preterm birth is a risk factor for increased systolic blood pressure at a young adult age.

    PubMed

    Keijzer-Veen, Mandy G; Dülger, Arzu; Dekker, Friedo W; Nauta, Jeroen; van der Heijden, Bert J

    2010-03-01

    Children born very prematurely who show intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR) are suggested to be at risk of developing high blood pressure as adults. Renal function may already be impaired by young adult age. To study whether very preterm birth affects blood pressure in young adults, we measured 24-h ambulatory blood pressure (Spacelabs 90207 device) and renin concentration in 50 very premature individuals (<32 weeks of gestation), either small (SGA) or appropriate (AGA) for gestational age (21 SGA, 29 AGA), and 30 full-term controls who all were aged 20 years at time of measurement. The mean (standard deviation) daytime systolic blood pressure in SGA and AGA prematurely born individuals, respectively, was 122.7 (8.7) and 123.1 (8.5) mmHg. These values were, respectively, 3.6 mmHg [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.9 to 8.0] and 4.2 mmHg (95% CI 0.4-8.0) higher than in controls [119.6 (7.6)]. Daytime diastolic blood pressure and nighttime blood pressure did not differ between groups. We conclude that individuals born very preterm have higher daytime systolic blood pressure and higher risk of hypertension at a young adult age. PMID:20012998

  20. The modified model of radiation risk at radon exposure.

    PubMed

    Zhukovsky, Michael; Demin, Vladimir; Yarmoshenko, Ilia

    2014-07-01

    The combined modified model of risk assessment from an indoor radon exposure is proposed. Multiplicative dependence on fatal lung cancer is used. The model has been developed on the basis of the modern health risk theory and the results of epidemiological studies with the special attention to the results of the European combined study and the WISMUT miners cohort study. The model is presented as an age-specific relative risk coefficient for a single (short-term) exposure. The risk coefficient for an extended exposure can be obtained from this risk coefficient in the accordance with the risk theory. The smoothed dependences of the risk coefficients on time since exposure and attained age and radon progeny concentration are suggested.

  1. Development of a Pressure-Dependent Constitutive Model with Combined Multilinear Kinematic and Isotropic Hardening

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen Phillip A.; Wilson, Christopher D.

    2003-01-01

    The development of a pressure-dependent constitutive model with combined multilinear kinematic and isotropic hardening is presented. The constitutive model is developed using the ABAQUS user material subroutine (UMAT). First the pressure-dependent plasticity model is derived. Following this, the combined bilinear and combined multilinear hardening equations are developed for von Mises plasticity theory. The hardening rule equations are then modified to include pressure dependency. The method for implementing the new constitutive model into ABAQUS is given.

  2. A Risk Analysis Methodology to Address Human and Organizational Factors in Offshore Drilling Safety: With an Emphasis on Negative Pressure Test

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabibzadeh, Maryam

    misinterpretation. Finally, a rational decision making model is introduced to quantify a section of the developed conceptual framework in the previous step and analyze the impact of different decision making biases on negative pressure test results. Along with the corroborating findings of previous studies, the analysis of the developed conceptual framework in this paper indicates that organizational factors are root causes of accumulated errors and questionable decisions made by personnel or management. Further analysis of this framework identifies procedural issues, economic pressure, and personnel management issues as the organizational factors with the highest influence on misinterpreting a negative pressure test. It is noteworthy that the captured organizational factors in the introduced conceptual framework are not only specific to the scope of the NPT. Most of these organizational factors have been identified as not only the common contributing causes of other offshore drilling accidents but also accidents in other oil and gas related operations as well as high-risk operations in other industries. In addition, the proposed rational decision making model in this research introduces a quantitative structure for analysis of the results of a conducted NPT. This model provides a structure and some parametric derived formulas to determine a cut-off point value, which assists personnel in accepting or rejecting an implemented negative pressure test. Moreover, it enables analysts to assess different decision making biases involved in the process of interpreting a conducted negative pressure test as well as the root organizational factors of those biases. In general, although the proposed integrated research methodology in this dissertation is developed for the risk assessment of human and organizational factors contributions in negative pressure test misinterpretation, it can be generalized and be potentially useful for other well control situations, both offshore and onshore; e

  3. On modeling center of foot pressure distortion through a medium.

    PubMed

    Betker, Aimee L; Moussavi, Zahra M K; Szturm, Tony

    2005-03-01

    The center of foot pressure (COP) is a commonly used output measure of the postural control system as it is indicative of the systems stability. A dense piece of foam, i.e., a sponge, can be used to emulate random environmental conditions that distort the ground reaction forces received and interpreted by the cutaneous sensors in the feet; thus introducing uncertainty into the control system. In this paper, the density and size of the sponge was selected such that a subject's weight did not cause full compression. In general, the COP is measured from the bottom of the sponge. As the sponge is used to distort ground reaction forces, it is reasonable then to assume that the COP signal would also be distorted. The use of other sensory information to identify state of balance, and compute necessary balance adjustments, is therefore required. In addition to a sponge, many different types of specialized footwear and inserts are used for people with peripheral neuropathy, such as diabetics. However, it is difficult to design diabetic footwear without a better understanding of the mechanical and physiological effects that different surfaces typical of outdoor terrains, such as a sponge, which cannot be predicted without the sense of the foot, have on balance. Therefore, the goal of this study was to investigate the change of the COP signal from the top and bottom of the sponge. Portable force sensing mats from Vista Medical were used to obtain the COP from the top and bottom of the sponge. The COP measured on the bottom of the sponge is not the same as the COP measured on the top, particularly in the medial-lateral direction. Several linear and nonlinear models were used to identify the unknown plant; i.e., the sponge. Overall, the nonlinear neural network method had superior performance when compared with the linear models. Thus, the results indicate that the signals from the top and bottom of the sponge are in fact different, and furthermore, they are nonlinearly related

  4. Uses and Abuses of Models in Radiation Risk Management

    SciTech Connect

    Strom, Daniel J.

    1998-12-10

    This paper is a high-level overview of managing risks to workers, public, and the environment. It discusses the difference between a model and a hypothesis. The need for models in risk assessment is justified, and then it is shown that radiation risk models that are useable in risk management are highly simplistic. The weight of evidence is considered for and against the linear non-threshold (LNT) model for carcinogenesis and heritable ill-health that is currently the basis for radiation risk management. Finally, uses and misuses of this model are considered. It is concluded that the LNT model continues to be suitable for use as the basis for radiation protection.

  5. Testing the pressure-confined LY alpha cloud model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Babul, Arif; Williger, Gerard M.

    1993-01-01

    The Ly-alpha absorption line forest, seen in quasar spectra, is generally interpreted as being due to cosmologically distributed 'clouds' of primordial gas. Analyses of the observations reveal that the number distribution can be described by power laws: dN/dz is proportional to (1 + z)(sup gamma) and dN/dN(sub HI) is proportional to N(sub HI)(sup -beyda), where N(sub HI) is the HI column density. The typical values for power law indices range between 2 is approximately less than gamma is approximately less than 2.6 and 1.7 is approximately less than gamma is approximately less than 1.9. One model postulates that the Ly-alpha clouds are optically thin entities, photoionized by the background UV flux, J(sub nu) is proportional to (1 + z)(sup j), and confined by an adiabatically evolving intercloud medium (ICM): P(z) is proportional to (1 + z)(sup 5). Analytic studies of this model suggest that the ensuing Ly-alpha line statistics can account for the observations (in particular, the dN/dz and the dN/dN(sub HI) distributions) if the cloud mass spectrum is a power law dN/dN is proportional to M(sup -delta), delta is approximately 1.9, and j is approximately 4. One of the simplifying assumptions incorporated into these studies is the existence of a large mass range for the clouds at all epochs, the validity of which is questionable. The pressure-confined model is investigated using a 1-D spherically symmetric hydrodynamical code to simulate cloud evolution over the epoch 1.8 less than z less than 6. This enables us to relax many of the assumptions incorporated in the analytic studies.

  6. Testing the pressure-confined Ly alpha cloud model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babul, Arif; Williger, Gerard M.

    1993-01-01

    The Ly-alpha absorption line forest, seen in quasar spectra, is generally interpreted as being due to cosmologically distributed 'clouds' of primordial gas. Analyses of the observations reveal that the number distribution can be described by power laws: dN/dz is proportional to (1 + z)(sup gamma) and dN/dN(sub HI) is proportional to N(sub HI)(sup -beyda), where N(sub HI) is the HI column density. The typical values for power law indices range between 2 is approximately less than gamma is approximately less than 2.6 and 1.7 is approximately less than gamma is approximately less than 1.9. One model postulates that the Ly-alpha clouds are optically thin entities, photoionized by the background UV flux, J(sub nu) is proportional to (1 + z)(sup j), and confined by an adiabatically evolving intercloud medium (ICM): P(z) is proportional to (1 + z)(sup 5). Analytic studies of this model suggest that the ensuing Ly-alpha line statistics can account for the observations (in particular, the dN/dz and the dN/dN(sub HI) distributions) if the cloud mass spectrum is a power law dN/dN is proportional to M(sup -delta), delta is approximately 1.9, and j is approximately 4. One of the simplifying assumptions incorporated into these studies is the existence of a large mass range for the clouds at all epochs, the validity of which is questionable. The pressure-confined model is investigated using a 1-D spherically symmetric hydrodynamical code to simulate cloud evolution over the epoch 1.8 less than z less than 6. This enables us to relax many of the assumptions incorporated in the analytic studies.

  7. [Elevated blood pressure in adolescents from Rome, Italy. Nutritional risk factors and physical activity].

    PubMed

    Cairella, G; Menghetti, E; Scanu, A; Bevilacqua, N; Censi, L; Martone, D; Sonni, L; Rosano, A; Spagnolo, A; D'Addesa, D

    2007-01-01

    Aim of the study was to detect the prevalence of hypertension among 11-14 years old schoolchildren (n. 487, mean age 12.7 +/- 0.9). The influence on blood pressure (BP) of body mass index (BMI), dietary habits (frequency of breakfast and food items consumption) and life-style was also investigated. Hypertension was defined according to blood pressure tables for children and adolescents of the NIH-Fourth Report (systolic and diastolic BP >95th percentile for age and sex). Overweight and obesity were determined according to the International Obesity Task Force Dietary habits and life-style were investigated by specific questionnaires. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was respectively 31.8% and 10.3% of the subjects studied. Moreover 10.3% of them showed BP values between 90th and 95th percentile and 10.1% was hypertensive. In general the prevalence of overweight (p < 0.05), obesity (p < 0.001) and sedentary activity (p < 0.05) was higher in hypertensive adolescents. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a direct association between obesity (OR = 4.35; IC 95% = 2.24-8.44), sedentary life-style (OR = 2.38; IC 95% = 1.17-4.63) and hypertension. Food habits were not associated with BP levels. The results confirmed that an increase of cardiovascular risk in early age was correlated with the increase of the prevalence of obesity and sedentary life-style. Regular measurement of BP together with healthy dietary and life-style indications are recommended to overweight/obese children and adolescents.

  8. Preconception Blood Pressure and Risk of Low Birth Weight and Small for Gestational Age: A Large Cohort Study in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Nan; Li, Zhiwen; Ye, Rongwei; Zhang, Le; Li, Hongtian; Zhu, Yibing; Li, Shun; Yang, Na; Liu, Jianmeng; Ren, Aiguo

    2016-10-01

    Our objective was to examine whether high blood pressure in the preconception period was associated with low birth weight (LBW) and small-for-gestational age (SGA) in Chinese women. Data were obtained from the China-US Collaborative Project for Neural Tube Defects Prevention, a large population-based cohort study. We included 43 718 singleton live births delivered at gestational ages of 28-45 weeks to women who were registered before pregnancy in 7 counties in southern China. Blood pressure was measured during registration by trained healthcare workers, and other health-related information was recorded prospectively. We used logistic regression to evaluate the associations between preconception blood pressure and the risk of LBW and SGA, adjusting for potential confounders. The prevalence of hypertension in the preconception study population was 4.62% (2019/43 718). The incidences of LBW and SGA were 2.33% and 5.05% for the hypertension group and 2.01% and 5.68% for the nonhypertension group. Compared with the nonhypertension group, the hypertension group did not show significantly increased risk for LBW overall (adjusted risk ratio =1.16, 95% confidence interval 0.86-1.57) or SGA (adjusted risk ratio =0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.73-1.09). When participants with normal blood pressure were used as the reference, the adjusted risk ratio of SGA for prehypertensive women was 1.13 (95% confidence interval 1.03-1.25). Our results do not support an association between hypertension or higher blood pressure before pregnancy and increased risk of LBW or SGA.

  9. Risk management modeling and its application in maritime safety

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Ting-Rong; Chen, Wei-Jiong; Zeng, Xiang-Kun

    2008-12-01

    Quantified risk assessment (QRA) needs mathematicization of risk theory. However, attention has been paid almost exclusively to applications of assessment methods, which has led to neglect of research into fundamental theories, such as the relationships among risk, safety, danger, and so on. In order to solve this problem, as a first step, fundamental theoretical relationships about risk and risk management were analyzed for this paper in the light of mathematics, and then illustrated with some charts. Second, man-machine-environment-management (MMEM) theory was introduced into risk theory to analyze some properties of risk. On the basis of this, a three-dimensional model of risk management was established that includes: a goal dimension; a management dimension; an operation dimension. This goal management operation (GMO) model was explained and then emphasis was laid on the discussion of the risk flowchart (operation dimension), which lays the groundwork for further study of risk management and qualitative and quantitative assessment. Next, the relationship between Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) and Risk Management was researched. This revealed that the FSA method, which the international maritime organization (IMO) is actively spreading, comes from Risk Management theory. Finally, conclusion were made about how to apply this risk management method to concrete fields efficiently and conveniently, as well as areas where further research is required.

  10. Doppler assessment of pulmonary artery pressure in neonates at risk of chronic lung disease

    PubMed Central

    Su, B.; Watanabe, T.; Shimizu, M.; Yanagisawa, M.

    1997-01-01

    AIM—To evaluate the pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) change in very low birthweight (VLBW) infants at risk of chronic lung disease (CLD).
METHODS—The time to peak velocity:right ventricular ejection time (TPV:RVET) ratio calculated from the pulmonary artery Doppler waveform, which is inversely related to PAP, was used. The TPV:RVET ratio was corrected for different heart rate (TPV:RVET(c)). Seventy three VLBW infants studied on days 1, 2, 3, 7, 14, 21 and 28 were enrolled for the analysis.
RESULTS—Twenty two infants developed CLD with a characteristic chest radiograph at day 28. Fifty one did not, of whom 17 were oxygen dependent on account of apnoea rather than respiratory disease, and 34 were non-oxygen dependent. The TPV:RVET(c) ratio rose progressively in all three groups over the first three days of life, suggesting a fall in PAP. In the oxygen and non-oxygen dependent groups, the mean (SD) ratio rose to 0.53 (0.09) and 0.57 (0.09), respectively, on day 7, then remained relatively constant thereafter. The CLD group rose more slowly after day 3 and had a significantly lower mean ratio from day 7 onwards compared with the other two groups (day 7: P<0.001, days 14-28: P<0.0001), and fell significantly from 0.47 (0.11) on day 7 to 0.41 (0.07) on day 28 (P=0.01), suggesting a progressive rise in PAP. The mean (SD) ratios at day 28 of all infants were: CLD group 0.41 (0.07); oxygen dependent group 0.66 (0.15); and the non-oxygen group 0.67 (0.11). The CLD group had a significantly lower ratio than the oxygen dependent group and the non-oxygen group (P<0.0001). Using the TPV:RVET(c) ratio of <0.46, infants at risk of developing CLD could be predicted on day 7 (predictive value 82.8%, sensitivity 54.5%, specificity 94.1%).
CONCLUSION—The non-invasive assessment of PAP using the TPV:RVET(c) ratio may be useful in the longitudinal monitoring of PAP change in VLBW infants, and for prediction of chronic lung disease.

 Keywords

  11. A risk analysis model for radioactive wastes.

    PubMed

    Külahcı, Fatih

    2011-07-15

    Hazardous wastes affect natural environmental systems to a significant extend, and therefore, it is necessary to control their harm through risk analysis. Herein, an effective risk methodology is proposed by considering their uncertain behaviors on stochastic, statistical and probabilistic bases. The basic element is attachment of a convenient probability distribution function (pdf) to a given waste quality measurement sequence. In this paper, (40)K contaminant measurements are adapted for risk assessment application after derivation of necessary fundamental formulations. The spatial contaminant distribution of (40)K is presented in the forms of maps and three-dimensional surfaces.

  12. Building risk-on-a-chip models to improve breast cancer risk assessment and prevention

    PubMed Central

    Vidi, Pierre-Alexandre; Leary, James; Lelièvre, Sophie A.

    2013-01-01

    Summary Preventive actions for chronic diseases hold the promise of improving lives and reducing healthcare costs. For several diseases, including breast cancer, multiple risk and protective factors have been identified by epidemiologists. The impact of most of these factors has yet to be fully understood at the organism, tissue, cellular and molecular levels. Importantly, combinations of external and internal risk and protective factors involve cooperativity thus, synergizing or antagonizing disease onset. Models are needed to mechanistically decipher cancer risks under defined cellular and microenvironmental conditions. Here, we briefly review breast cancer risk models based on 3D cell culture and propose to improve risk modeling with lab-on-a-chip approaches. We suggest epithelial tissue polarity, DNA repair and epigenetic profiles as endpoints in risk assessment models and discuss the development of ‘risks-on-chips’ integrating biosensors of these endpoints and of general tissue homeostasis. Risks-on-chips will help identify biomarkers of risk, serve as screening platforms for cancer preventive agents, and provide a better understanding of risk mechanisms, hence resulting in novel developments in disease prevention. PMID:23681255

  13. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  14. Source-to-Outcome Microbial Exposure and Risk Modeling Framework

    EPA Science Inventory

    A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) is a computer-based data-delivery and modeling approach that integrates interdisciplinary fate/transport, exposure, and impact models and databases to characterize potential health impacts/risks due to pathogens. As such, a QMRA ex...

  15. A Process Model for Assessing Adolescent Risk for Suicide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stoelb, Matt; Chiriboga, Jennifer

    1998-01-01

    This comprehensive assessment process model includes primary, secondary, and situational risk factors and their combined implications and significance in determining an adolescent's level or risk for suicide. Empirical data and clinical intuition are integrated to form a working client model that guides the professional in continuously reassessing…

  16. CPAP Treatment Supported by Telemedicine Does Not Improve Blood Pressure in High Cardiovascular Risk OSA Patients: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Mendelson, Monique; Vivodtzev, Isabelle; Tamisier, Renaud; Laplaud, David; Dias-Domingos, Sonia; Baguet, Jean-Philippe; Moreau, Laurent; Koltes, Christian; Chavez, Léonidas; De Lamberterie, Gilles; Herengt, Frédéric; Levy, Patrick; Flore, Patrice; Pépin, Jean-Louis

    2014-01-01

    Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been associated with hypertension, which is one of the intermediary mechanisms leading to increased cardiovascular morbidity. This study aimed at evaluating the effects of a combination of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) and telemedicine support on blood pressure (BP) reduction in high cardiovascular risk OSA patients. Design: A multi-center randomized controlled trial that compared standard CPAP care and CPAP care and a telemedicine intervention. Setting: Sleep clinics in France. Patients or Participants: 107 adult (18-65 years old) OSA patients (AHI > 15 events/h) with a high cardiovascular risk (cardiovascular SCORE > 5% or secondary prevention). Interventions: Patients were randomized to either standard care CPAP (n = 53) or CPAP and telemedicine (n = 54). Patients assigned to telemedicine were equipped with a smartphone for uploading BP measurements, CPAP adherence, sleepiness, and quality of life data; in return, they received pictograms containing health-related messages. Measurements: The main outcome was home self-measured BP and secondary outcomes were cardiovascular risk evolution, objective physical activity, CPAP adherence, sleepiness and quality of life. Results: Self-measured BP did not improve in either group (telemedicine or standard care). Patients in primary prevention showed greater BP reduction with CPAP treatment than those in secondary prevention. Conclusions: CPAP treatment supported by telemedicine alone did not improve blood pressure and cardiovascular risk in high cardiovascular risk OSA patients. This study emphasizes the need for diet and physical activity training programs in addition to CPAP when aiming at decreasing cardiometabolic risk factors in these patients. Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01226641. Citation: Mendelson M, Vivodtzev I, Tamisier R, Laplaud D, Dias-Domingos S, Baguet JP, Moreau L, Koltes C, Chavez L, De Lamberterie G

  17. Identity Development as a Buffer of Adolescent Risk Behaviors in the Context of Peer Group Pressure and Control

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dumas, Tara M.; Ellis, Wendy E.; Wolfe, David A.

    2012-01-01

    We examined identity development as a moderator of the relation between peer group pressure and control and adolescents' engagement in risk behaviors. Participants (n = 1070; M[subscript age] = 15.45 years) completed a self-report measure of "identity exploration", the degree to which they have explored a variety of self-relevant values, beliefs…

  18. A kinetic model of pressure solution/compaction for porosity prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Lahann, R.W. )

    1991-03-01

    A pressure/temperature history model for prediction of porosity of well-sorted, quartzose sandstones was developed and calibrated. The model assumes that porosity loss of quartzose sandstones is by pressure solution, which can be modeled by calculations of pressure solution/compaction of a uniform grain pack. The model assumes that all mass mobilized by the pressure solution is precipitated within the system and no mass is introduced from outside sources. A pressure solution rate law was developed that requires depth, temperature, and pressure information throughout the sandstone burial history. Rate of pressure solution is assumed to be proportional to effective lithostatic pressure, inversely proportional to te contact area between grains, and to have an Arrhenius-type dependence on temperature. The predicted porosities vary as a function of grain size and the pressure/temperature history of the sample. 'Unknowns' in the rate law were determined by calibration to a North Sea/Norwegian shelf data base of average porosities for well-sorted sandstones ranging in age from Devonian to Jurassic. Comparison of observed and model-predicted porosities indicates that, for the calibration data base, the model has a standard error if estimate of 3.6 porosity units. Sources of error include erroneous model assumptions, and grain size, sorting, and temperature and pressure history determinations on the calibration set. The model was tested on US Gulf Coast Miocene and Oligocene reservoirs and provided good estimates of observed porosities.

  19. Multi-dimensional modeling of pressurization and expulsion of multi-phase hydrogen propellant

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    A multidimensional computational model of the pressurization process in a slush hydrogen propellant storage tank was developed and its accuracy evaluated by comparison to experimental data measured for a 5 ft diameter spherical tank. The fluid mechanic, thermodynamic, and heat transfer processes within the ullage are represented by a finite-volume model. the heat and mass fluxes at the ullage boundary were computed in auxiliary analyses and specified as input to the finite-volume model. the model was shown to be in reasonable agreement with the experimental data. A parameter study was undertaken to examine the dependence of the pressurization process on initial ullage temperature distribution and pressurant mass flow rate. It is shown that for a given heat flux rate at the ullage boundary, the pressurization process is nearly independent of initial temperature distribution. The mass flow rate study revealed decreasing pressurant mass requirements with increasing pressurant mass flow rate. Further, significant differences were identified between the ullage temperature and velocity fields predicted for pressurization of slush and those predicted for pressurization of liquid hydrogen. A simplified model of the pressurization process was constructed in search of a dimensionless characterization of the pressurization process. It is shown that the relationship derived from this simplified model collapses all of the pressure history data generated during this study into a single curve.

  20. X-33 Metal Model Testing In Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The countrys next generation of space transportation, a reusable launch vehicle (RLV), continues to undergo wind tunnel testing at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. All four photos are a metal model of the X-33 reusable launch vehicle (about 15 inches long by 15 inches wide) being tested for Lockheed Martin Skunk Works in the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) at NASA Langley Research Center. Tests are being conducted by members of the Aerothermodynamics Branch. According to Kelly Murphy of Langleys Aerothermodynamics Branch, the aluminum and stainless steel model of the X-33 underwent aerodynamic testing in the tunnel. *The subsonic tests were conducted at the speed of Mach 25,* she said. *Force and moment testing and measurement in this tunnel lasted about one week.* Future testing of the metal model is scheduled for Langleys 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel, from the end of March to mid-April 1997, and the Unitary Wind Tunnel, from mid-April to the beginning of May. Other tunnel testing for X-33 models are scheduled from the present through June in the hypersonic tunnels, and the 14- by 22-Foot Tunnel from about mid-June to mid-July. Since 1991 Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. has been the lead center for coordinating the Agencys X-33 Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, an industry-led effort, which NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin has declared the agency's highest priority new program. The RLV Technology Program is a partnership among NASA, the United States Air Force and private industry to develop world leadership in low-cost space transportation. The goal of the program is to develop technologies and new operational concepts that can radically reduce the cost of access to space. The RLV program also hopes to speed the commercialization of space and improve U.S. economic competitiveness by making access to space as routine and reliable as today's airline industry, while reducing costs and enhancing safety and reliability. The RLV

  1. X-33 Metal Model Testing In Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    The countrys next generation of space transportation, a reusable launch vehicle (RLV), continues to undergo wind tunnel testing at NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Va. All four photos are a metal model of the X-33 reusable launch vehicle (about 15 inches long by 15 inches wide) being tested for Lockheed Martin Skunk Works in the Low Turbulence Pressure Tunnel (LTPT) at NASA Langley Research Center. Tests are being conducted by members of the Aerothermodynamics Branch. According to Kelly Murphy of Langleys Aerothermodynamics Branch, the aluminum and stainless steel model of the X-33 underwent aerodynamic testing in the tunnel. *The subsonic tests were conducted at the speed of Mach .25,* she said. *Force and moment testing and measurement in this tunnel lasted about one week.* Future testing of the metal model is scheduled for Langleys 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel, from the end of March to mid-April 1997, and the Unitary Wind Tunnel, from mid-April to the beginning of May. Other tunnel testing for X-33 models are scheduled from the present through June in the hypersonic tunnels, and the 14- by 22-Foot Tunnel from about mid-June to mid-July. Since 1991 Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. has been the lead center for coordinating the Agencys X-33 Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) Program, an industry-led effort, which NASA Administrator Daniel S. Goldin has declared the agency's highest priority new program. The RLV Technology Program is a partnership among NASA, the United States Air Force and private industry to develop world leadership in low-cost space transportation. The goal of the program is to develop technologies and new operational concepts that can radically reduce the cost of access to space. The RLV program also hopes to speed the commercialization of space and improve U.S. economic competitiveness by making access to space as routine and reliable as today's airline industry, while reducing costs and enhancing safety and reliability. The RLV

  2. State-of-Art Empirical Modeling of Ring Current Plasma Pressure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yue, C.; Ma, Q.; Wang, C. P.; Bortnik, J.; Thorne, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    The plasma pressure in the inner magnetosphere plays a key role in plasma dynamics by changing magnetic field configurations and generating the ring current. In this study, we present our preliminary results of empirically constructing 2D equatorial ring current pressure and pressure anisotropy spatial distributions controlled by Dst based on measurements from two particle instruments (HOPE and RBSPICE) onboard Van Allen Probes. We first obtain the equatorial plasma perpendicular and parallel pressures for different species including H+, He+, O+ and e- from 20 eV to ~1 MeV, and investigate their relative contributions to the total plasma pressure and pressure anisotropy. We then establish empirical equatorial pressure models within ~ 6 RE using a state-of-art machine learning technique, Support Vector Regression Machine (SVRM). The pressure models predict equatorial perpendicular and parallel plasma thermal pressures (for each species and for total pressures) and pressure anisotropy at any given r, MLT, Bz/Br (equivalent Z distance), and Dst within applicable ranges. We are currently validating our model predictions and investigating how the ring current pressure distributions and the associated pressure gradients vary with Dst index.

  3. Epithelial sodium channel inhibition by amiloride on blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk in young prehypertensives.

    PubMed

    Bhagatwala, Jigar; Harris, Ryan A; Parikh, Samip J; Zhu, Haidong; Huang, Ying; Kotak, Ishita; Seigler, Nichole; Pierce, Gary L; Egan, Brent M; Dong, Yanbin

    2014-01-01

    Overactivity of the epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) is considered to be one mechanism underlying obesity-related blood pressure (BP) elevation. In an open-labeled, nonplacebo-controlled clinical trial (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT-01308983), the authors aimed to comprehensively evaluate the effects of amiloride monotherapy, an ENaC blocker, on BP and cardiovascular risk in young adults with prehypertension (n=17). The mean body mass index of participants was 28.45±1.30 kg/m(2) . Following 10 mg daily amiloride for 4 weeks, peripheral systolic BP (SBP), central SBP, and carotid-radial pulse wave velocity were significantly reduced by -7.06±2.25 mm Hg, -7.68±2.56 mm Hg, and -0.72±0.33 m/s, respectively, whereas flow-mediated dilation was significantly increased by 2.2±0.9%. Following amiloride monotherapy for 4 weeks, a significant increase in serum aldosterone was observed (5.85±2.45 ng/dL). ENaC inhibition by amiloride may be used as an early intervention to halt the progression to full hypertension and cardiovascular disease in young adults with prehypertension.

  4. Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring in diabetes for the assessment and control of vascular risk.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Moyá, Ana; Ayala, Diana E

    2015-10-01

    The diagnosis of hypertension and the clinical decisions regarding its treatment are usually based on daytime clinic blood pressure (BP) measurements. However, the correlation between BP levels and target organ damage, cardiovascular (CV) risk, and long-term prognosis, is higher for ambulatory (ABPM) than clinic measurements, both in the general population as well as in patients with diabetes. Moreover, there is consistent evidence in numerous studies that the asleep BP better predicts CV events than either the awake or 24h means. The prevalence of abnormal BP pattern and sleep-time hypertension is extensive in diabetes, often leading to inaccurate diagnoses of hypertension and its therapeutic control in the absence of complete and careful assessment of the entire 24h, i.e., daytime and night-time, BP pattern. Accordingly, ABPM should be the preferred method to comprehensively assess and decide the optimal clinical management of patients with diabetes directed to properly reduce elevated sleep-time BP, which might also lead to a significant reduction of CV events.

  5. Feasibility of developing risk-based rankings of pressure boundary systems for inservice inspection

    SciTech Connect

    Vo, T.V.; Smith, B.W.; Simonen, F.A.; Gore, B.F.

    1994-08-01

    The goals of the Evaluation and Improvement of Non-destructive Examination Reliability for the In-service Inspection of Light Water Reactors Program sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission at Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) are to (1) assess current ISI techniques and requirements for all pressure boundary systems and components, (2) determine if improvements to the requirements are needed, and (3) if necessary, develop recommendations for revising the applicable ASME Codes and regulatory requirements. In evaluating approaches that could be used to provide a technical basis for improved inservice inspection plans, PNL has developed and applied a method that uses results of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to establish piping system ISI requirements. In the PNL program, the feasibility of generic ISI requirements is being addressed in two phases. Phase I involves identifying and prioritizing the systems most relevant to plant safety. The results of these evaluations will be later consolidated into requirements for comprehensive inservice inspection of nuclear power plant components that will be developed in Phase II. This report presents Phase I evaluations for eight selected plants and attempts to compare these PRA-based inspection priorities with current ASME Section XI requirements for Class 1, 2 and 3 systems. These results show that there are generic insights that can be extrapolated from the selected plants to specific classes of light water reactors.

  6. A Team Mental Model Perspective of Pre-Quantitative Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, Lynne P.

    2011-01-01

    This study was conducted to better understand how teams conceptualize risk before it can be quantified, and the processes by which a team forms a shared mental model of this pre-quantitative risk. Using an extreme case, this study analyzes seven months of team meeting transcripts, covering the entire lifetime of the team. Through an analysis of team discussions, a rich and varied structural model of risk emerges that goes significantly beyond classical representations of risk as the product of a negative consequence and a probability. In addition to those two fundamental components, the team conceptualization includes the ability to influence outcomes and probabilities, networks of goals, interaction effects, and qualitative judgments about the acceptability of risk, all affected by associated uncertainties. In moving from individual to team mental models, team members employ a number of strategies to gain group recognition of risks and to resolve or accept differences.

  7. Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection

    SciTech Connect

    Richmond, Andrew

    2002-12-15

    Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection.

  8. In-line pressure-flow module for in vitro modelling of haemodynamics and biosensor validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koenig, S. C.; Schaub, J. D.; Ewert, D. L.; Swope, R. D.; Convertino, V. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1997-01-01

    An in-line pressure-flow module for in vitro modelling of haemodynamics and biosensor validation has been developed. Studies show that good accuracy can be achieved in the measurement of pressure and of flow, in steady and pulstile flow systems. The model can be used for development, testing and evaluation of cardiovascular-mechanical-electrical anlogue models, cardiovascular prosthetics (i.e. valves, vascular grafts) and pressure and flow biosensors.

  9. Quantified Risk Ranking Model for Condition-Based Risk and Reliability Centered Maintenance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyaya, Pradip Kumar; Basu, Sushil Kumar; Majumdar, Manik Chandra

    2016-03-01

    In the recent past, risk and reliability centered maintenance (RRCM) framework is introduced with a shift in the methodological focus from reliability and probabilities (expected values) to reliability, uncertainty and risk. In this paper authors explain a novel methodology for risk quantification and ranking the critical items for prioritizing the maintenance actions on the basis of condition-based risk and reliability centered maintenance (CBRRCM). The critical items are identified through criticality analysis of RPN values of items of a system and the maintenance significant precipitating factors (MSPF) of items are evaluated. The criticality of risk is assessed using three risk coefficients. The likelihood risk coefficient treats the probability as a fuzzy number. The abstract risk coefficient deduces risk influenced by uncertainty, sensitivity besides other factors. The third risk coefficient is called hazardous risk coefficient, which is due to anticipated hazards which may occur in the future and the risk is deduced from criteria of consequences on safety, environment, maintenance and economic risks with corresponding cost for consequences. The characteristic values of all the three risk coefficients are obtained with a particular test. With few more tests on the system, the values may change significantly within controlling range of each coefficient, hence `random number simulation' is resorted to obtain one distinctive value for each coefficient. The risk coefficients are statistically added to obtain final risk coefficient of each critical item and then the final rankings of critical items are estimated. The prioritization in ranking of critical items using the developed mathematical model for risk assessment shall be useful in optimization of financial losses and timing of maintenance actions.

  10. A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

    PubMed

    Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-02-01

    The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example.

  11. A comprehensive Network Security Risk Model for process control networks.

    PubMed

    Henry, Matthew H; Haimes, Yacov Y

    2009-02-01

    The risk of cyber attacks on process control networks (PCN) is receiving significant attention due to the potentially catastrophic extent to which PCN failures can damage the infrastructures and commodity flows that they support. Risk management addresses the coupled problems of (1) reducing the likelihood that cyber attacks would succeed in disrupting PCN operation and (2) reducing the severity of consequences in the event of PCN failure or manipulation. The Network Security Risk Model (NSRM) developed in this article provides a means of evaluating the efficacy of candidate risk management policies by modeling the baseline risk and assessing expectations of risk after the implementation of candidate measures. Where existing risk models fall short of providing adequate insight into the efficacy of candidate risk management policies due to shortcomings in their structure or formulation, the NSRM provides model structure and an associated modeling methodology that captures the relevant dynamics of cyber attacks on PCN for risk analysis. This article develops the NSRM in detail in the context of an illustrative example. PMID:19000078

  12. Proposal of RAS-diuretic vs. RAS-calcium antagonist strategies in high-risk hypertension: insight from the 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure profile and central pressure.

    PubMed

    Kario, Kazuomi

    2010-01-01

    I here propose an individualized renin angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitor-based combination therapy with calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) or with diuretics, based on the 24-hr ambulatory blood pressure (BP) profiles and central pressure in relation to the target organ damage in high-risk hypertensive patients. For high-risk patients with increased circulating volume, such as that caused by chronic kidney disease (CKD) or congestive heart failure (CHF), who are likely to exhibit a non-dipper/riser pattern of nocturnal BP fall, diuretics are recommended in combination with a RAS inhibitor to reduce nocturnal BP preferentially. For high-risk patients with arterial diseases such as cardiovascular disease and increased arterial stiffness, who are likely to exhibit exaggerated BP variability, such as morning BP surge and day-to-day BP variability, a CCB is recommended for use in combination with a RAS inhibitor to reduce BP variability and central BP. In particular, bedtime dosing of a RAS inhibitor targeting sleep-early morning activation of RAS may be particularly effective for cardiorenal protection. PMID:20728424

  13. A new pressure formulation for gas-compressibility dampening in bubble dynamics models.

    PubMed

    Gadi Man, Yezaz Ahmed; Trujillo, Francisco J

    2016-09-01

    We formulated a pressure equation for bubbles performing nonlinear radial oscillations under ultrasonic high pressure amplitudes. The proposed equation corrects the gas pressure at the gas-liquid interface on inertial bubbles. This pressure formulation, expressed in terms of gas-Mach number, accounts for dampening due to gas compressibility during the violent collapse of cavitation bubbles and during subsequent rebounds. We refer to this as inhomogeneous pressure, where the gas pressure at the gas-liquid interface can differ to the pressure at the centre of the bubble, in contrast to homogenous pressure formulations that consider that pressure inside the bubble is spatially uniform from the wall to the centre. The pressure correction was applied to two bubble dynamic models: the incompressible Rayleigh-Plesset equation and the compressible Keller and Miksis equation. This improved the predictions of the nonlinear radial motion of the bubble vs time obtained with both models. Those simulations were also compared with other bubble dynamics models that account for liquid and gas compressibility effects. It was found that our corrected models are in closer agreement with experimental data than alternative models. It was concluded that the Rayleigh-Plesset family of equations improve accuracy by using our proposed pressure correction. PMID:27150768

  14. CODE's new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, D.; Meindl, M.; Beutler, G.; Dach, R.; Schaer, S.; Lutz, S.; Prange, L.; Sośnica, K.; Mervart, L.; Jäggi, A.

    2015-08-01

    The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009-2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft's solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which

  15. General circulation model simulations of winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Legates, D.R.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, observed sea-level pressures were used to evaluate winter and summer sea-level pressures over North America simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation models. The objective of the study is to determine how similar the spatial and temporal distributions of GCM-simulated daily sea-level pressures over North America are to observed distributions. Overall, both models are better at reproducing observed within-season variance of winter and summer sea-level pressures than they are at simulating the magnitude of mean winter and summer sea-level pressures. -from Authors

  16. Numerical modeling of self-pressurization and pressure control by a thermodynamic vent system in a cryogenic tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majumdar, Alok; Valenzuela, Juan; LeClair, Andre; Moder, Jeff

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a numerical model of a system-level test bed-the multipurpose hydrogen test bed (MHTB) using the Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP). MHTB is representative in size and shape of a space transportation vehicle liquid hydrogen propellant tank, and ground-based testing was performed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to generate data for cryogenic storage. GFSSP is a finite volume-based network flow analysis software developed at MSFC and used for thermofluid analysis of propulsion systems. GFSSP has been used to model the self-pressurization and ullage pressure control by the Thermodynamic Vent System (TVS). A TVS typically includes a Joule-Thompson (J-T) expansion device, a two-phase heat exchanger (HEX), and a mixing pump and liquid injector to extract thermal energy from the tank without significant loss of liquid propellant. For the MHTB tank, the HEX and liquid injector are combined into a vertical spray bar assembly. Two GFSSP models (Self-Pressurization and TVS) were separately developed and tested and then integrated to simulate the entire system. The Self-Pressurization model consists of multiple ullage nodes, a propellant node, and solid nodes; it computes the heat transfer through multilayer insulation blankets and calculates heat and mass transfer between the ullage and liquid propellant and the ullage and tank wall. A TVS model calculates the flow through a J-T valve, HEX, and spray and vent systems. Two models are integrated by exchanging data through User Subroutines of both models. Results of the integrated models have been compared with MHTB test data at a 50% fill level. Satisfactory comparison was observed between tests and numerical predictions.

  17. Predicting pressure ulcer risk with the modified Braden, Braden, and Norton scales in acute care hospitals in Mainland China.

    PubMed

    Kwong, Enid; Pang, Samantha; Wong, Thomas; Ho, Jacqueline; Shao-ling, Xue; Li-jun, Tao

    2005-05-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a modified Braden scale, to evaluate its predictive validity, and to identify a more valid pressure ulcer risk calculator for application in acute care hospitals in Mainland China among the modified Braden, Braden, and Norton scales. The initial modified Braden scale, with the addition of skin type and body build for height, was proposed in this study. Four hundred twenty-nine subjects who were admitted to two acute care hospitals in Mainland China within 24 hr and free of pressure ulcers upon admission were assessed with the initial modified Braden, Braden, and Norton scales by three nurse assessors. This was followed by a daily skin assessment to note any pressure ulcer by a nurse assessor. Nine subjects had pressure ulcers detected at Stages I (89%) and II (11%) after an average stay of 11 days. The descriptive analysis of each subscale scoring item in the initial modified Braden scale indicated that skin type and body build for height were the most distinct predictive factors whereas nutrition was the least distinct factor for predicting pressure ulcer development. Based on these findings, the modified Braden scale was further developed with the addition of skin type and body build for height and by exclusion of nutrition. The predictive validity test reported that the modified Braden scale demonstrated a better balance of sensitivity (89%) and specificity (75%) at a cutoff score of 16, with a higher positive predictive value (7%), than the Braden and Norton scales. This finding revealed that for this sample, the modified Braden scale is more effective in pressure ulcer risk prediction than the other two scales. Because the modified Braden scale is not 100% sensitive and specific, to increase clinical efficacy in the prevention of pressure ulcer, it is recommended that it be adopted combined with nursing judgment to predict pressure ulcer development in acute care settings in Mainland China.

  18. Modeling and simulation of a class of liquid propellant engine pressurization systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karimi, H.; Nassirharand, Amir; Mohseni, M.

    2010-02-01

    In this paper, a new approach for modeling a class of pressurization systems for liquid propellant engines is presented. High pressure gas stored in special capsules is injected in a controlled way onto the gas volume on top of the propellant tanks. Instantaneous pressure and temperature values of propellant tanks and the capsules are computed. The computed constitutive values are compared with experimental results. The modeling approach accounts for variations of pressure and density of the pressurant inside the capsules and propellant tanks. It also accounts for heat transfer between pressurant and its surroundings. Equations for determination of the pressurant shut-down time are developed. Similarly, equations for determination of the propellant pump inlet pressure are also derived. The final governing equations are in terms of a set of differential equations that are numerically solved using the modified Euler method. The primary application of this research is to determine the pressurization system exit pressure. In case of turbo-pump feed systems, this work may be used to detect the occurrence of the cavitation phenomenon in the pumps. The method is limited to: (1) thermally insulated propellant tanks and (2) use of several storage capsules that are made of insulating composite material (i.e., exit mass flow rate is small, pressurant is stored at high pressure and low volume, temperature variations are small, and pressure drop in the capsules is not appreciable).

  19. Hydrostatic Pressure Promotes Domain Formation in Model Lipid Raft Membranes.

    PubMed

    Worcester, David L; Weinrich, Michael

    2015-11-01

    Neutron diffraction measurements demonstrate that hydrostatic pressure promotes liquid-ordered (Lo) domain formation in lipid membranes prepared as both oriented multilayers and unilamellar vesicles made of a canonical ternary lipid mixture for which demixing transitions have been extensively studied. The results demonstrate an unusually large dependence of the mixing transition on hydrostatic pressure. Additionally, data at 28 °C show that the magnitude of increase in Lo caused by 10 MPa pressure is much the same as the decrease in Lo produced by twice minimum alveolar concentrations (MAC) of general anesthetics such as halothane, nitrous oxide, and xenon. Therefore, the results may provide a plausible explanation for the reversal of general anesthesia by hydrostatic pressure.

  20. Assessing Academic Risk of Student-Athletes: Applicability of the NCAA Graduation Risk Overview Model to GPA

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, James

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to standardize academic risk assessment, the NCAA developed the graduation risk overview (GRO) model. Although this model was designed to assess graduation risk, its ability to predict grade-point average (GPA) remained unknown. Therefore, 134 individual risk assessments were made to determine GRO model effectiveness in the…

  1. Modeling extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland china.

    PubMed

    Chen, Youhua

    2013-01-01

    The extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China was modeled over evolutionary time. Results showed that extinction risk of endemic birds in mainland China always tended to be similar within subclades over the evolutionary time of species divergence, and the overall evolution of extinction risk of species presented a conservatism pattern, as evidenced by the disparity-through-time plot. A constant-rate evolutionary model was the best one to quantify the evolution of extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China. Thus, there was no rate shifting pattern for the evolution of extinction risk of Chinese endemic birds over time. In a summary, extinction risk of endemic birds of mainland China is systematically quantified under the evolutionary framework in the present work.

  2. Risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes: systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Mathur, Rohini; Dent, Tom; Meads, Catherine; Greenhalgh, Trisha

    2011-01-01

    Objective To evaluate current risk models and scores for type 2 diabetes and inform selection and implementation of these in practice. Design Systematic review using standard (quantitative) and realist (mainly qualitative) methodology. Inclusion criteria Papers in any language describing the development or external validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of an adult developing type 2 diabetes. Data sources Medline, PreMedline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched. Included studies were citation tracked in Google Scholar to identify follow-on studies of usability or impact. Data extraction Data were extracted on statistical properties of models, details of internal or external validation, and use of risk scores beyond the studies that developed them. Quantitative data were tabulated to compare model components and statistical properties. Qualitative data were analysed thematically to identify mechanisms by which use of the risk model or score might improve patient outcomes. Results 8864 titles were scanned, 115 full text papers considered, and 43 papers included in the final sample. These described the prospective development or validation, or both, of 145 risk prediction models and scores, 94 of which were studied in detail here. They had been tested on 6.88 million participants followed for up to 28 years. Heterogeneity of primary studies precluded meta-analysis. Some but not all risk models or scores had robust statistical properties (for example, good discrimination and calibration) and had been externally validated on a different population. Genetic markers added nothing to models over clinical and sociodemographic factors. Most authors described their score as “simple” or “easily implemented,” although few were specific about the intended users and under what circumstances. Ten mechanisms were identified by which measuring diabetes risk might improve outcomes. Follow-on studies that applied a risk score as part of an

  3. Latent Model Analysis of Substance Use and HIV Risk Behaviors among High-Risk Minority Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Min Qi; Matthew, Resa F.; Chiu, Yu-Wen; Yan, Fang; Bellamy, Nikki D.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: This study evaluated substance use and HIV risk profile using a latent model analysis based on ecological theory, inclusive of a risk and protective factor framework, in sexually active minority adults (N=1,056) who participated in a federally funded substance abuse and HIV prevention health initiative from 2002 to 2006. Methods: Data…

  4. A Measurement Model of Women’s Behavioral Risk Taking

    PubMed Central

    VanZile-Tamsen, Carol; Testa, Maria; Livingston, Jennifer A.; Harlow, Lisa L.

    2009-01-01

    The current study was designed to gain a better understanding of the nature of the relationship between substance use and sexual risk taking within a community sample of women (N = 1,004). Using confirmatory factor analysis, the authors examined the factor structure of sexual risk behaviors and substance use to determine whether they are best conceptualized as domains underlying a single, higher order, risk-taking propensity. A 2 higher order factor model (sexual risk behavior and substance use) provided the best fit to the data, suggesting that these 2 general risk domains are correlated but independent factors. Sensation seeking had large general direct effects on the 2 risk domains and large indirect effects on the 4 first-order factors and the individual indicators. Negative affect had smaller, yet still significant, effects. Impulsivity and anxiety were unrelated to sexual health risk domains. PMID:16569118

  5. Risk factors for obesity and high blood pressure in Chinese American children: maternal acculturation and children's food choices.

    PubMed

    Chen, Jyu-Lin; Weiss, Sandra; Heyman, Melvin B; Lustig, Robert

    2011-04-01

    The objective of this study is to explore risk factors associated with overweight and high blood pressure in Chinese American children. Students and their parents were recruited from Chinese language schools in the San Francisco Bay Area. Data were collected on 67 children and their mothers, and included children's weight, height, waist and hip circumferences, blood pressure, level of physical activity, dietary intake, usual food choice, knowledge about nutrition and physical activity, and self-efficacy regarding diet and physical activity. Mothers completed questionnaires on demographic data and acculturation. About 46% of children had a body mass index exceeding the 85th percentile. Lower level of maternal acculturation is a risk factor for overweight and higher waist to hip ratio. Children's unhealthy food choices were predictive of high body mass index and high systolic blood pressure, whereas older age and less physical activity in children were predictors of high diastolic blood pressure. Developing culturally sensitive and developmentally appropriate interventions to reduce overweight and high blood pressure is critical to reduce health disparities among minority children.

  6. Changing the "Normal Range" for Blood Pressure from 140/90 to 130/Any Improves Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Redefine the "normal" reference range for blood pressure from <140/90 to one that more effectively identifies individuals with increased mortality risk. Method .- Data from the recently published 2014 CRL blood pressure study was used. It includes 2,472,706 life insurance applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File. Various upper limits of blood pressure (BP in mm Hg) were evaluated to determine if any was superior to the current, commonly used limit of 140/90 in identifying individuals with increased mortality risk. Results .- An alternative reference range using a systolic BP (SBP) <130 with any diastolic BP (DBP) included 84% of life insurance applicants. It had a lower mortality rate and narrower range of relative risk than <140/90, including 89% as many applicants but only 68% as many deaths. This pattern of lives and deaths was consistent across age and sex. Conclusion .- Switching to a "normal" reference range of SBP <130 offers superior risk assessment relative to using BP <140/90 while still including a sufficient percentage of the population. PMID:27584806

  7. Changing the "Normal Range" for Blood Pressure from 140/90 to 130/Any Improves Risk Assessment.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2015-01-01

    Objective .- Redefine the "normal" reference range for blood pressure from <140/90 to one that more effectively identifies individuals with increased mortality risk. Method .- Data from the recently published 2014 CRL blood pressure study was used. It includes 2,472,706 life insurance applicants tested by Clinical Reference Laboratory from 1993 to 2007 with follow-up for vital status using the September 2011 Social Security Death Master File. Various upper limits of blood pressure (BP in mm Hg) were evaluated to determine if any was superior to the current, commonly used limit of 140/90 in identifying individuals with increased mortality risk. Results .- An alternative reference range using a systolic BP (SBP) <130 with any diastolic BP (DBP) included 84% of life insurance applicants. It had a lower mortality rate and narrower range of relative risk than <140/90, including 89% as many applicants but only 68% as many deaths. This pattern of lives and deaths was consistent across age and sex. Conclusion .- Switching to a "normal" reference range of SBP <130 offers superior risk assessment relative to using BP <140/90 while still including a sufficient percentage of the population.

  8. Comparison of three computational models for predicting pressurization characteristics of cryogenic tank during discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Wang; Yanzhong, Li; Kang, Zhu; Yonghua, Jin

    2015-01-01

    In order to select an effective approach to predict the pressurization characteristics of cryogenic tank during rocket launching, three computational models, defined as 0-D, 1-D and CFD models, are used to obtain the pressure evolution and thermal performance of a cryogenic tank during pressurized discharge period. Several pressurization cases are computed by all of the three models to evaluate their predictive abilities and effects, respectively. The comparative study shows that for the case with a diffuser-type injector at the tank inlet, the consistent results by the three models are obtained in the most of period, except that 1-D model has a peak departure prediction of pressure value at the beginning of process. All of the three models can be used to predict the pressurization performance, and their predictive abilities could be validated with one another. The CFD model is the unique suitable model to display the pressurization performance including physical distribution in radial direction especially for the system with no-diffuser-type injector. Based on the analysis, the application selection of three models for different cases is accomplished. The 0-D model is the priority selection for a simple pressure prediction of tank ullage, even for the situation that severe temperature distribution exists in the ullage range. The 1-D model is the optimal selection as considering both the convenience and the time consumption for the constant-pressure cases. But it is not recommended in a constant-inlet flux cases for its distinct predicting deviation at the beginning of the process. When the detailed distributions within the tank are concerned, the CFD model is the unique selection. The results of this paper may be beneficial to the model selection and optimization analysis of a pressurization system.

  9. A model for the influence of pressure on the bulk modulus and the influence of temperature on the solidification pressure for liquid lubricants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, B. O.; Vinet, P.

    1986-01-01

    Two pressure chambers, for compression experiments with liquids from zero to 2.2 GPa pressure, are described. The experimentally measured compressions are then compared to theoretical values given by an isothermal model of equation of state recently introduced for solids. The model describes the pressure and bulk modulus as a function of compression for different types of lubricants with a very high accuracy up to the pressure limit of the high pressure chamber used (2.2 GPa). In addition the influence of temperature on static solidification pressure was found to be a simple function of the thermal expansion of the fluid.

  10. A model for the influence of pressure on the bulk modulus and the influence of temperature on the solidification pressure for liquid lubricants

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, Bo O.; Vinet, Pascal

    1987-01-01

    Two pressure chambers, for compression experiments with liquids from zero to 2.2 GPa pressure, are described. The experimentally measured compressions are then compared to theoretical values given by an isothermal model of equation of state recently introduced for solids. The model describes the pressure and bulk modulus as a function of compression for different types of lubricants with a very high accuracy up to the pressure limit of the high pressure chamber used (2.2 GPa). In addition the influence of temperature on static solidification pressure was found to be a simple function of the thermal expansion of the fluid.

  11. Global flood risk modelling and its applications for disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Bierkens, Marc; Bouwman, Arno; van Beek, Rens; Ligtvoet, Willem; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Flooding of river systems is the most costly natural hazard affecting societies around the world, with an average of 55 billion in direct losses and 4,500 fatalities each year between 1990 and 2012. The accurate and consistent assessment of flood risk on a global scale is essential for international development organizations and the reinsurance industry, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. This need is especially felt in developing countries, where local data and models are largely unavailable, and where flood risk is increasing rapidly under strong population growth and economic development. Here we present ongoing applications of high-resolution flood risk modelling at a global scale. The work is based on GLOFRIS, a modelling chain that produces flood risk maps at a 1km spatial resolution for the entire globe, under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios and various past and future time periods. This modelling chain combines a hydrological inundation model with socioeconomic datasets to assess past, current and future population exposure; economic damages; and agricultural risk. These tools are currently applied scientifically to gain insights in geographical patterns in current risk, and to assess the effects of possible future scenarios under climate change and climate variability. In this presentation we show recent applications from global scale to national scales. The global scale applications include global risk profiling for the reinsurance industry; and novel estimation of global flood mortality risk. In addition it will be demonstrated how the global flood modelling approach was successfully applied to assess disaster risk reduction priorities on a national scale in Africa. Finally, we indicate how these global modelling tools can be used to quantify the costs and benefits of adaptation, and explore pathways for development under a changing environment.

  12. ARHGEF12 influences the risk of glaucoma by increasing intraocular pressure.

    PubMed

    Springelkamp, Henriët; Iglesias, Adriana I; Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Amin, Najaf; Burdon, Kathryn P; van Leeuwen, Elisabeth M; Gharahkhani, Puya; Mishra, Aniket; van der Lee, Sven J; Hewitt, Alex W; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Wolfs, Roger C W; Martin, Nicholas G; Ramdas, Wishal D; van Koolwijk, Leonieke M; Pennell, Craig E; Vingerling, Johannes R; Mountain, Jenny E; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Mitchell, Paul; Lemij, Hans G; Wang, Jie Jin; Klaver, Caroline C W; Mackey, David A; Craig, Jamie E; van Duijn, Cornelia M; MacGregor, Stuart

    2015-05-01

    Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a blinding disease. Two important risk factors for this disease are a positive family history and elevated intraocular pressure (IOP), which is also highly heritable. Genes found to date associated with IOP and POAG are ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2, GAS7 and TMCO1. However, these genes explain only a small part of the heritability of IOP and POAG. We performed a genome-wide association study of IOP in the population-based Rotterdam Study I and Rotterdam Study II using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) imputed to 1000 Genomes. In this discovery cohort (n = 8105), we identified a new locus associated with IOP. The most significantly associated SNP was rs58073046 (β = 0.44, P-value = 1.87 × 10(-8), minor allele frequency = 0.12), within the gene ARHGEF12. Independent replication in five population-based studies (n = 7471) resulted in an effect size in the same direction that was significantly associated (β = 0.16, P-value = 0.04). The SNP was also significantly associated with POAG in two independent case-control studies [n = 1225 cases and n = 4117 controls; odds ratio (OR) = 1.53, P-value = 1.99 × 10(-8)], especially with high-tension glaucoma (OR = 1.66, P-value = 2.81 × 10(-9); for normal-tension glaucoma OR = 1.29, P-value = 4.23 × 10(-2)). ARHGEF12 plays an important role in the RhoA/RhoA kinase pathway, which has been implicated in IOP regulation. Furthermore, it binds to ABCA1 and links the ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2 and GAS7 pathway to Mendelian POAG genes (MYOC, OPTN, WDR36). In conclusion, this study identified a novel association between IOP and ARHGEF12.

  13. ARHGEF12 influences the risk of glaucoma by increasing intraocular pressure.

    PubMed

    Springelkamp, Henriët; Iglesias, Adriana I; Cuellar-Partida, Gabriel; Amin, Najaf; Burdon, Kathryn P; van Leeuwen, Elisabeth M; Gharahkhani, Puya; Mishra, Aniket; van der Lee, Sven J; Hewitt, Alex W; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Viswanathan, Ananth C; Wolfs, Roger C W; Martin, Nicholas G; Ramdas, Wishal D; van Koolwijk, Leonieke M; Pennell, Craig E; Vingerling, Johannes R; Mountain, Jenny E; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Mitchell, Paul; Lemij, Hans G; Wang, Jie Jin; Klaver, Caroline C W; Mackey, David A; Craig, Jamie E; van Duijn, Cornelia M; MacGregor, Stuart

    2015-05-01

    Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a blinding disease. Two important risk factors for this disease are a positive family history and elevated intraocular pressure (IOP), which is also highly heritable. Genes found to date associated with IOP and POAG are ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2, GAS7 and TMCO1. However, these genes explain only a small part of the heritability of IOP and POAG. We performed a genome-wide association study of IOP in the population-based Rotterdam Study I and Rotterdam Study II using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) imputed to 1000 Genomes. In this discovery cohort (n = 8105), we identified a new locus associated with IOP. The most significantly associated SNP was rs58073046 (β = 0.44, P-value = 1.87 × 10(-8), minor allele frequency = 0.12), within the gene ARHGEF12. Independent replication in five population-based studies (n = 7471) resulted in an effect size in the same direction that was significantly associated (β = 0.16, P-value = 0.04). The SNP was also significantly associated with POAG in two independent case-control studies [n = 1225 cases and n = 4117 controls; odds ratio (OR) = 1.53, P-value = 1.99 × 10(-8)], especially with high-tension glaucoma (OR = 1.66, P-value = 2.81 × 10(-9); for normal-tension glaucoma OR = 1.29, P-value = 4.23 × 10(-2)). ARHGEF12 plays an important role in the RhoA/RhoA kinase pathway, which has been implicated in IOP regulation. Furthermore, it binds to ABCA1 and links the ABCA1, CAV1/CAV2 and GAS7 pathway to Mendelian POAG genes (MYOC, OPTN, WDR36). In conclusion, this study identified a novel association between IOP and ARHGEF12. PMID:25637523

  14. Physically-based strength model of tantalum incorporating effects of temperature, strain rate and pressure

    DOE PAGES

    Lim, Hojun; Battaile, Corbett C.; Brown, Justin L.; Weinberger, Christopher R.

    2016-06-14

    In this work, we develop a tantalum strength model that incorporates e ects of temperature, strain rate and pressure. Dislocation kink-pair theory is used to incorporate temperature and strain rate e ects while the pressure dependent yield is obtained through the pressure dependent shear modulus. Material constants used in the model are parameterized from tantalum single crystal tests and polycrystalline ramp compression experiments. It is shown that the proposed strength model agrees well with the temperature and strain rate dependent yield obtained from polycrystalline tantalum experiments. Furthermore, the model accurately reproduces the pressure dependent yield stresses up to 250 GPa.more » The proposed strength model is then used to conduct simulations of a Taylor cylinder impact test and validated with experiments. This approach provides a physically-based multi-scale strength model that is able to predict the plastic deformation of polycrystalline tantalum through a wide range of temperature, strain and pressure regimes.« less

  15. The OPTIONS model of sexual risk assessment for adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lusczakoski, Kathryn D; Rue, Lisa A

    2012-03-01

    Typically, clinical evaluations of adolescents' sexual risk is based on inquiring about past sexual activity, which is limited by not including an adolescent's cognitive decision making regarding their past sexual decisions. This study describes the novel OPTIONS framework for assessing adolescent sexual risk including three general categories of risk (e.g., primary, secondary, and tertiary risk), which is designed to overcome the limitation of action-based assessment of risk and improve practitioners' ability to assess the levels of sexual risk. A convenience sample of 201 older adolescents (18-19 years of age) completed an online version of the Relationship Options Survey (ROS), designed to measure the OPTIONS sexual risk assessment. Bivariate correlation among the subscales functioned in the hypothesized manner, with all correlations being statistically significant. Using the OPTIONS model, 22.4% participants were classified as high risk primary, 7.0% participants were classified as high risk secondary, and 27.4% participants were classified as high risk tertiary. The study provided preliminary evidence for OPTIONS model of sexual assessment, which provides a more tailored evaluation by including cognitive decisions regarding an adolescent's sexual actions.

  16. Central Pressure Appraisal: Clinical Validation of a Subject-Specific Mathematical Model

    PubMed Central

    Leone, Dario; Camporeale, Carlo; Bruno, Giulia; Ridolfi, Luca; Veglio, Franco; Milan, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Current evidence suggests that aortic blood pressure has a superior prognostic value with respect to brachial pressure for cardiovascular events, but direct measurement is not feasible in daily clinical practice. Aim The aim of the present study is the clinical validation of a multiscale mathematical model for non-invasive appraisal of central blood pressure from subject-specific characteristics. Methods A total of 51 young male were selected for the present study. Aortic systolic and diastolic pressure were estimated with a mathematical model and were compared to the most-used non-invasive validated technique (SphygmoCor device, AtCor Medical, Australia). SphygmoCor was calibrated through diastolic and systolic brachial pressure obtained with a sphygmomanometer, while model inputs consist of brachial pressure, height, weight, age, left-ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, and data from a pulse wave velocity study. Results Model-estimated systolic and diastolic central blood pressures resulted to be significantly related to SphygmoCor-assessed central systolic (r = 0.65 p <0.0001) and diastolic (r = 0.84 p<0.0001) blood pressures. The model showed a significant overestimation of systolic pressure (+7.8 (-2.2;14) mmHg, p = 0.0003) and a significant underestimation of diastolic values (-3.2(-7.5;1.6), p = 0.004), which imply a significant overestimation of central pulse pressure. Interestingly, model prediction errors mirror the mean errors reported in large meta-analysis characterizing the use of the SphygmoCor when non-invasive calibration is performed. Conclusion In conclusion, multi-scale mathematical model predictions result to be significantly related to SphygmoCor ones. Model-predicted systolic and diastolic aortic pressure resulted in difference of less than 10 mmHg in the 51% and 84% of the subjects, respectively, when compared with SphygmoCor-obtained pressures. PMID:27010562

  17. Modeling Commercial Turbofan Engine Icing Risk With Ice Crystal Ingestion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jorgenson, Philip C. E.; Veres, Joseph P.

    2013-01-01

    The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in

  18. High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) System Risk-Based Inspection Guide for Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Station

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, S.; DiBiasio, A.; Gunther, W.

    1993-09-01

    The High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system has been examined from a risk perspective. A System Risk-Based Inspection Guide (S-RIG) has been developed as an aid to HPCI system inspections at the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant, Units 1, 2 and 3. The role of. the HPCI system in mitigating accidents is discussed in this S-RIG, along with insights on identified risk-based failure modes which could prevent proper operation of the system. The S-RIG provides a review of industry-wide operating experience, including plant-specific illustrative examples to augment the PRA and operational considerations in identifying a catalogue of basic PRA failure modes for the HPCI system. It is designed to be used as a reference for routine inspections, self-initiated safety system functional inspections (SSFIs), and the evaluation of risk significance of component failures at the nuclear power plant.

  19. Vane Back-Pressure of Vane Type Compressors and Its Mathematical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukuta, Mitsuhiro; Yanagisawa, Tadashi; Ijiri, Makoto; Yoda, Seiichiro

    Vane type compressors pressurize a back-pressure chamber of the vane to keep a contact between a vane tip and a stator wall. It is important to apply appropriate pressure to the back-pressure chamber in order to prevent the excessive friction at the vane tip or the chattering phenomenon. However, the determination of the pressure is so complicated that it has been designed empirically or experimentally. In this study, the back-pressure is measured with visualizing a plate groove to which the back-pressure chamber is connected. The plate groove is filled with the mixture of oil and refrigerant gas, and the void fraction in it increases with the rotational speed. The back-pressure decreases with increasing the rotational speed and the influence of the discharge pressure on the back-pressure is larger than that of the suction pressure. It is found that the leakage through the rotor face is one of the dominant factors and it can be modeled by using the time averaged pressure distribution on the rotor circumference. The calculated results by the mathematical model developed in this study agree well with the experimental results under several conditions.

  20. Student Choices: Using a Competing Risks Model of Survival Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denson, Katy; Schumacker, Randall E.

    By using a competing risks model, survival analysis methods can be extended to predict which of several mutually exclusive outcomes students will choose based on predictor variables, thereby ascertaining if the profile of risk differs across groups. The paper begins with a brief introduction to logistic regression and some of the basic concepts of…

  1. Risk Prediction Models for Other Cancers or Multiple Sites

    Cancer.gov

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing other multiple cancers over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  3. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  4. Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

    PubMed Central

    Ma, Xiao; Yang, Yang; Tu, Hong; Gao, Jing; Tan, Yu-Ting; Zheng, Jia-Li; Bray, Freddie; Xiang, Yong-Bing

    2016-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heavy burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well. PMID:27199512

  5. Pore water pressure variations in Subpermafrost groundwater : Numerical modeling compared with experimental modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivière, Agnès.; Goncalves, Julio; Jost, Anne; Font, Marianne

    2010-05-01

    Development and degradation of permafrost directly affect numerous hydrogeological processes such as thermal regime, exchange between river and groundwater, groundwater flows patterns and groundwater recharge (Michel, 1994). Groundwater in permafrost area is subdivided into two zones: suprapermafrost and subpermafrost which are separated by permafrost. As a result of the volumetric expansion of water upon freezing and assuming ice lenses and frost heave do not form freezing in a saturated aquifer, the progressive formation of permafrost leads to the pressurization of the subpermafrost groundwater (Wang, 2006). Therefore disappearance or aggradation of permafrost modifies the confined or unconfined state of subpermafrost groundwater. Our study focuses on modifications of pore water pressure of subpermafrost groundwater which could appear during thawing and freezing of soil. Numerical simulation allows elucidation of some of these processes. Our numerical model accounts for phase changes for coupled heat transport and variably saturated flow involving cycles of freezing and thawing. The flow model is a combination of a one-dimensional channel flow model which uses Manning-Strickler equation and a two-dimensional vertically groundwater flow model using Richards equation. Numerical simulation of heat transport consisted in a two dimensional model accounting for the effects of latent heat of phase change of water associated with melting/freezing cycles which incorporated the advection-diffusion equation describing heat-transfer in porous media. The change of hydraulic conductivity and thermal conductivity are considered by our numerical model. The model was evaluated by comparing predictions with data from laboratory freezing experiments. Experimental design was undertaken at the Laboratory M2C (Univesité de Caen-Basse Normandie, CNRS, France). The device consisted of a Plexiglas box insulated on all sides except on the top. Precipitation and ambient temperature are

  6. Evaluation of the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model among Families Reporting Economic Pressure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vandsburger, Etty; Biggerstaff, Marilyn A.

    2004-01-01

    This research evaluates the Stress Adjustment and Adaptation Model (double ABCX model) examining the effects resiliency resources on family functioning when families experience economic pressure. Families (N = 128) with incomes at or below the poverty line from a rural area of a southern state completed measures of perceived economic pressure,…

  7. Technique for the integral casting of pressure instrumentation in wind-tunnel models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, C. M., Jr.; Summerfield, D. G.

    1971-01-01

    Wind tunnel models are cast around core consisting of array of tubing. Principal advantage of technique is that greater number of pressure orifices are easily installed, without compromising aerodynamic shape of model. Technique reduces construction cost by about 50 percent.

  8. Composite Pressure Vessel Variability in Geometry and Filament Winding Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, Steven J.; Greene, Nathanael J.

    2012-01-01

    Composite pressure vessels (CPVs) are used in a variety of applications ranging from carbon dioxide canisters for paintball guns to life support and pressurant storage on the International Space Station. With widespread use, it is important to be able to evaluate the effect of variability on structural performance. Data analysis was completed on CPVs to determine the amount of variation that occurs among the same type of CPV, and a filament winding routine was developed to facilitate study of the effect of manufacturing variation on structural response.

  9. Submission Form for Peer-Reviewed Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Cancer.gov

    If you have information about a peer-reviewd cancer risk prediction model that you would like to be considered for inclusion on this list, submit as much information as possible through the form on this page.

  10. Lymphatic filariasis transmission risk map of India, based on a geo-environmental risk model.

    PubMed

    Sabesan, Shanmugavelu; Raju, Konuganti Hari Kishan; Subramanian, Swaminathan; Srivastava, Pradeep Kumar; Jambulingam, Purushothaman

    2013-09-01

    The strategy adopted by a global program to interrupt transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is mass drug administration (MDA) using chemotherapy. India also followed this strategy by introducing MDA in the historically known endemic areas. All other areas, which remained unsurveyed, were presumed to be nonendemic and left without any intervention. Therefore, identification of LF transmission risk areas in the entire country has become essential so that they can be targeted for intervention. A geo-environmental risk model (GERM) developed earlier was used to create a filariasis transmission risk map for India. In this model, a Standardized Filariasis Transmission Risk Index (SFTRI, based on geo-environmental risk variables) was used as a predictor of transmission risk. The relationship between SFTRI and endemicity (historically known) of an area was quantified by logistic regression analysis. The quantified relationship was validated by assessing the filarial antigenemia status of children living in the unsurveyed areas through a ground truth study. A significant positive relationship was observed between SFTRI and the endemicity of an area. Overall, the model prediction of filarial endemic status of districts was found to be correct in 92.8% of the total observations. Thus, among the 190 districts hitherto unsurveyed, as many as 113 districts were predicted to be at risk, and the remaining at no risk. The GERM developed on geographic information system (GIS) platform is useful for LF spatial delimitation on a macrogeographic/regional scale. Furthermore, the risk map developed will be useful for the national LF elimination program by identifying areas at risk for intervention and for undertaking surveillance in no-risk areas.

  11. Hypertension Canada's 2016 Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines for Blood Pressure Measurement, Diagnosis, and Assessment of Risk of Pediatric Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Harris, Kevin C; Benoit, Geneviève; Dionne, Janis; Feber, Janusz; Cloutier, Lyne; Zarnke, Kelly B; Padwal, Raj S; Rabi, Doreen M; Fournier, Anne

    2016-05-01

    We present the inaugural evidence-based Canadian recommendations for the measurement of blood pressure in children and the diagnosis and evaluation of pediatric hypertension. Rates of pediatric hypertension are increasing concomitant with increased rates of childhood obesity. With this, there is growing awareness of the need to measure blood pressure in children. Consequently, the present recommendations have been developed to address an important gap and improve the clinical care of children. For 2016, a total of 15 recommendations are presented. These are categorized in a fashion similar to that of the existing adult recommendations. Specifically, we present recommendations on (1) accurate measurement of blood pressure in children, (2) criteria for diagnosis of hypertension in children, (3) assessment of overall cardiovascular risk in hypertensive children, (4) routine laboratory tests for the investigation of children with hypertension, (5) ambulatory blood pressure measurement in children, and (6) the role of echocardiography. We discuss the rationale for the recommendations and present additional supporting material for the clinician, including tables with standardized techniques for blood pressure measurement and determination of normative blood pressure values for children. Hypertension Canada's Canadian Hypertension Education Program Guidelines Task Force will update the recommendations annually and develop future evidence-based recommendations to guide prevention and treatment of pediatric hypertension.

  12. Sleep-time blood pressure: prognostic value and relevance as a therapeutic target for cardiovascular risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Hermida, Ramón C; Ayala, Diana E; Fernández, José R; Mojón, Artemio

    2013-03-01

    Correlation between blood pressure (BP) level and target organ damage, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, and long-term prognosis is greater for ambulatory BP monitoring (ABPM) than clinical BP measurements. Nevertheless, the latter continue to be the "gold standard" to diagnose hypertension, assess CVD risk, and evaluate hypertension treatment. Independent ABPM studies have found that elevated sleep-time BP is a better predictor of CVD risk than either the awake or 24-h BP mean. A major limitation of all previous ABPM-based prognostic studies is the reliance only upon a single baseline profile from each participant at the time of inclusion, without accounting for potential changes in the level and pattern of ambulatory BP thereafter during follow-up. Accordingly, impact of the alteration over time, i.e., during long-term follow-up, of specific features of the 24-h BP variation on CVD risk has never been properly investigated. We evaluated the comparative prognostic value of (i) clinic and ambulatory BP; (ii) different ABPM-derived characteristics, e.g., asleep or awake BP mean; and (iii) specific changes in ABPM characteristic during follow-up, mainly whether reduced CVD risk is more related to the progressive decrease of asleep or awake BP. We prospectively studied 3344 subjects (1718 men/1626 women), 52.6 ± 14.5 (mean ± SD) yrs of age, during a median follow-up of 5.6 yrs. Those with hypertension at baseline were randomized to ingest all their prescribed hypertension medications upon awakening or ≥1 of them at bedtime. At baseline, BP was measured at 20-min intervals from 07:00 to 23:00 h and at 30-min intervals at night for 48-h, and physical activity was simultaneously monitored every min by wrist actigraphy to accurately derive awake and asleep BP means. Identical assessment was scheduled annually and more frequently (quarterly) if treatment adjustment was required. Data collected either at baseline or the last ABPM evaluation per participant

  13. A Hybrid Tsunami Risk Model for Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haseemkunju, A. V.; Smith, D. F.; Khater, M.; Khemici, O.; Betov, B.; Scott, J.

    2014-12-01

    Around the margins of the Pacific Ocean, denser oceanic plates slipping under continental plates cause subduction earthquakes generating large tsunami waves. The subducting Pacific and Philippine Sea plates create damaging interplate earthquakes followed by huge tsunami waves. It was a rupture of the Japan Trench subduction zone (JTSZ) and the resultant M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that caused the unprecedented tsunami along the Pacific coast of Japan on March 11, 2011. EQECAT's Japan Earthquake model is a fully probabilistic model which includes a seismo-tectonic model describing the geometries, magnitudes, and frequencies of all potential earthquake events; a ground motion model; and a tsunami model. Within the much larger set of all modeled earthquake events, fault rupture parameters for about 24000 stochastic and 25 historical tsunamigenic earthquake events are defined to simulate tsunami footprints using the numerical tsunami model COMCOT. A hybrid approach using COMCOT simulated tsunami waves is used to generate inundation footprints, including the impact of tides and flood defenses. Modeled tsunami waves of major historical events are validated against observed data. Modeled tsunami flood depths on 30 m grids together with tsunami vulnerability and financial models are then used to estimate insured loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami. The primary direct report of damage from the 2011 tsunami is in terms of the number of buildings damaged by municipality in the tsunami affected area. Modeled loss in Japan from the 2011 tsunami is proportional to the number of buildings damaged. A 1000-year return period map of tsunami waves shows high hazard along the west coast of southern Honshu, on the Pacific coast of Shikoku, and on the east coast of Kyushu, primarily associated with major earthquake events on the Nankai Trough subduction zone (NTSZ). The highest tsunami hazard of more than 20m is seen on the Sanriku coast in northern Honshu, associated with the JTSZ.

  14. Modeling Exposure to Persistent Chemicals in Hazard and Risk Assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Cowan-Ellsberry, Christina E.; McLachlan, Michael S.; Arnot, Jon A.; MacLeod, Matthew; McKone, Thomas E.; Wania, Frank

    2008-11-01

    Fate and exposure modeling has not thus far been explicitly used in the risk profile documents prepared to evaluate significant adverse effect of candidate chemicals for either the Stockholm Convention or the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution. However, we believe models have considerable potential to improve the risk profiles. Fate and exposure models are already used routinely in other similar regulatory applications to inform decisions, and they have been instrumental in building our current understanding of the fate of POP and PBT chemicals in the environment. The goal of this paper is to motivate the use of fate and exposure models in preparing risk profiles in the POP assessment procedure by providing strategies for incorporating and using models. The ways that fate and exposure models can be used to improve and inform the development of risk profiles include: (1) Benchmarking the ratio of exposure and emissions of candidate chemicals to the same ratio for known POPs, thereby opening the possibility of combining this ratio with the relative emissions and relative toxicity to arrive at a measure of relative risk. (2) Directly estimating the exposure of the environment, biota and humans to provide information to complement measurements, or where measurements are not available or are limited. (3) To identify the key processes and chemical and/or environmental parameters that determine the exposure; thereby allowing the effective prioritization of research or measurements to improve the risk profile. (4) Predicting future time trends including how quickly exposure levels in remote areas would respond to reductions in emissions. Currently there is no standardized consensus model for use in the risk profile context. Therefore, to choose the appropriate model the risk profile developer must evaluate how appropriate an existing model is for a specific setting and whether the assumptions and input data are relevant in the context of the application

  15. Modified pressure loss model for T-junctions of engine exhaust manifold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wenhui; Lu, Xiaolu; Cui, Yi; Deng, Kangyao

    2014-11-01

    The T-junction model of engine exhaust manifolds significantly influences the simulation precision of the pressure wave and mass flow rate in the intake and exhaust manifolds of diesel engines. Current studies have focused on constant pressure models, constant static pressure models and pressure loss models. However, low model precision is a common disadvantage when simulating engine exhaust manifolds, particularly for turbocharged systems. To study the performance of junction flow, a cold wind tunnel experiment with high velocities at the junction of a diesel exhaust manifold is performed, and the variation in the pressure loss in the T-junction under different flow conditions is obtained. Despite the trend of the calculated total pressure loss coefficient, which is obtained by using the original pressure loss model and is the same as that obtained from the experimental results, large differences exist between the calculated and experimental values. Furthermore, the deviation becomes larger as the flow velocity increases. By improving the Vazsonyi formula considering the flow velocity and introducing the distribution function, a modified pressure loss model is established, which is suitable for a higher velocity range. Then, the new model is adopted to solve one-dimensional, unsteady flow in a D6114 turbocharged diesel engine. The calculated values are compared with the measured data, and the result shows that the simulation accuracy of the pressure wave before the turbine is improved by 4.3% with the modified pressure loss model because gas compressibility is considered when the flow velocities are high. The research results provide valuable information for further junction flow research, particularly the correction of the boundary condition in one-dimensional simulation models.

  16. An integrated risk management model for source water protection areas.

    PubMed

    Chiueh, Pei-Te; Shang, Wei-Ting; Lo, Shang-Lien

    2012-10-17

    Watersheds are recognized as the most effective management unit for the protection of water resources. For surface water supplies that use water from upstream watersheds, evaluating threats to water quality and implementing a watershed management plan are crucial for the maintenance of drinking water safe for humans. The aim of this article is to establish a risk assessment model that provides basic information for identifying critical pollutants and areas at high risk for degraded water quality. In this study, a quantitative risk model that uses hazard quotients for each water quality parameter was combined with a qualitative risk model that uses the relative risk level of potential pollution events in order to characterize the current condition and potential risk of watersheds providing drinking water. In a case study of Taipei Source Water Area in northern Taiwan, total coliforms and total phosphorus were the top two pollutants of concern. Intensive tea-growing and recreational activities around the riparian zone may contribute the greatest pollution to the watershed. Our risk assessment tool may be enhanced by developing, recording, and updating information on pollution sources in the water supply watersheds. Moreover, management authorities could use the resultant information to create watershed risk management plans.

  17. Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Douglas, J.

    2007-04-01

    An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.

  18. Modeling the Risks of Geothermal Development

    SciTech Connect

    Golabi, K.; Nair, K.; Rothstein, S.; Sioshansi, F.

    1980-12-16

    Geothermal energy has emerged as a promising energy source in recent years and has received serious attention from developers and potential users. Despite the advantages of this resource, such as potential cost competitiveness, reliability, public acceptance, etc., the commercial development and use of geothermal energy has been slow. Impediments to the development of this resource include technical, financial, environmental and regulatory uncertainties. Since geothermal power is unique in that the generation facility is tied to a single fuel at a single site, these uncertainties are of particular concern to utility companies. The areas of uncertainty and potential risks are well known. This paper presents a method for quantifying the relevant uncertainties and a framework for aggregating the risks through the use of submodels. The objective submodels can be combined with subjective probabilities (when sufficient data is not available) to yield a probability distribution over a single criterion (levelized busbar cost) that can be used to compare the desirability of geothermal power development with respect to other alternatives.

  19. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  20. QSAR in predictive models for ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Passino-Reader, D.R.; Hickey, J.P.

    1994-12-31

    The end use of toxicity and exposure data is risk assessment to determine the probability that receptors experience harmful effects from exposure to environmental contaminants at a site. Determination of processes and development of predictive models precede the collection of data for risk assessment. The presence of hundreds of contaminants at a site and absence of data for many contaminants lead to the use of QSAR to implement the models. Examples of the use of linear salvation energy relationships (LSER) to provide estimates of aquatic toxicity and exposure endpoints will be provided. Integration of QSAR estimates and measured data must be addressed in the uncertainty analysis accompanying ecological risk assessment.

  1. A Model for Risk Assessment in Health Care.

    PubMed

    Prijatelj, Vesna; Rajkovič, Vladislav; Šušteršič, Olga

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to reduce risks and hence prevent errors in the health care process. The aim is to design an organizational information model using error prevention methods for risk assessment in a clinical setting. The model is based on selected indicators of quality nursing care, resulting from the world-known theoretical and practical models combined with experience in the Slovenian health care. The proposed organizational information model and software solution has a significant impact on the professional attention, communication and information, critical thinking, experience and knowledge. PMID:27332383

  2. Neuronal changes after chronic high blood pressure in animal models and its implication for vascular dementia.

    PubMed

    Flores, Gonzalo; Flores-Gómez, Gabriel D; de Jesús Gomez-Villalobos, Ma

    2016-05-01

    Vascular dementia is a devastating disorder not only for the patient, but also for the family because this neurocognitive disorder breaks the patient's independence, and leads to family care of the patient with a high cost for the family. This complex disorder alters memory, learning, judgment, emotional control and social behavior and affects 4% of the elderly world population. The high blood pressure or arterial hypertension is a major risk factor for cerebrovascular disease, which in most cases leads to vascular dementia. Interestingly, this neurocognitive disorder starts after long lasting hypertension, which is associated with reduced cerebral blood flow or hypoperfusion, and complete or incomplete ischemia with cortical thickness. Animal models have been generated to elucidate the pathophysiology of this disorder. It is known that dendritic complexity determines the receptive synaptic contacts, and the loss of dendritic spine and arbor stability are strongly associated with dementia in humans. This review evaluates relevant data of human and animal models that have investigated the link between long-lasting arterial hypertension and neural morphological changes in the context of vascular dementia. We examined the effect of chronic arterial hypertension and aged in vascular dementia. Neural dendritic morphology in the prefrontal cortex and the dorsal hippocampus and nucleus accumbens after chronic hypertension was diskussed in the animal models of hypertension. Chronic hypertension reduced the dendritic length and spine density in aged rats.

  3. Numerical Modeling and Test Data Comparison of Propulsion Test Article Helium Pressurization System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holt, Kimberly; Majumdar, Alok; Steadman, Todd; Hedayat, Ali; Fogle, Frank R. (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    A transient model of the propulsion test article (PTA) helium pressurization system was developed using the generalized fluid system simulation program (GFSSP). The model included pressurization lines from the facility interface to the engine purge interface and liquid oxygen (lox) and rocket propellant-1 (RP-1) tanks, the propellant tanks themselves including ullage space, and propellant feed lines to their respective pump interfaces. GFSSP's capability was extended to model a control valve to maintain ullage pressure within a specified limit and pressurization processes such as heat transfer between ullage gas, propellant, and the tank wall as well as conduction in the tank wall. The purpose of the model is to predict the flow system characteristics in the entire pressurization system during 80 sec of lower feed system priming, 420 sec of fuel and lox pump priming, and 150 sec of engine firing.

  4. Job strain (demands and control model) as a predictor of cardiovascular risk factors among petrochemical personnel

    PubMed Central

    Habibi, Ehsanollah; Poorabdian, Siamak; Shakerian, Mahnaz

    2015-01-01

    Background: One of the practical models for the assessment of stressful working conditions due to job strain is job demand and control model, which explains how physical and psychological adverse consequences, including cardiovascular risk factors can be established due to high work demands (the amount of workload, in addition to time limitations to complete that work) and low control of the worker on his/her work (lack of decision making) in the workplace. The aim of this study was to investigate how certain cardiovascular risk factors (including body mass index [BMI], heart rate, blood pressure, cholesterol and smoking) and the job demand and job control are related to each other. Materials and Methods: This prospective cohort study was conducted on 500 workers of the petrochemical industry in south of Iran, 2009. The study population was selected using simple random statistical method. They completed job demand and control questionnaire. The cardiovascular risk factors data was extracted from the workers hygiene profiles. Chi-square (χ2) test and hypothesis test (η) were used to assess the possible relationship between different quantified variables, individual demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The results of this study revealed that a significant relationship can be found between job demand control model and cardiovascular risk factors. Chi-square test result for the heart rate showed the highest (χ2 = 145.078) relationship, the corresponding results for smoking and BMI were χ2 = 85.652 and χ2 = 30.941, respectively. Subsequently, hypothesis testing results for cholesterol and hypertension was 0.469 and 0.684, respectively. Discussion: Job strain is likely to be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular risk factors among male staff in a petrochemical company in Iran. The parameters illustrated in the Job demands and control model can act as acceptable predictors for the probability of job stress occurrence followed by showing

  5. A triple risk model for unexplained late stillbirth

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The triple risk model for sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been useful in understanding its pathogenesis. Risk factors for late stillbirth are well established, especially relating to maternal and fetal wellbeing. Discussion We propose a similar triple risk model for unexplained late stillbirth. The model proposed by us results from the interplay of three groups of factors: (1) maternal factors (such as maternal age, obesity, smoking), (2) fetal and placental factors (such as intrauterine growth retardation, placental insufficiency), and (3) a stressor (such as venocaval compression from maternal supine sleep position, sleep disordered breathing). We argue that the risk factors within each group in themselves may be insufficient to cause the death, but when they interrelate may produce a lethal combination. Summary Unexplained late stillbirth occurs when a fetus who is somehow vulnerable dies as a result of encountering a stressor and/or maternal condition in a combination which is lethal for them. PMID:24731396

  6. A simple way to model the pressure dependency of rock velocity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Tongcheng

    2016-04-01

    Modeling the pressure dependency of rock velocity is important for interpreting and comparing the seismic and earthquake data from different depths. This study develops a multicomponent differential effective medium model for the elastic properties of porous rocks with two types of pores in the grain background without mixing order. The developed model is applied to modeling the pressure dependent elastic velocity of porous rocks by incorporating the variation of stiff and compliant porosity as a function of pressure. The pressure dependent stiff and compliant porosity were inverted from the measured total porosity under pressure using a dual porosity model, and the unknown constant stiff and compliant pore aspect ratios were inverted by best fitting the modeled velocity to the measured data. Application of the approach to a low porosity granite and a medium porosity sandstone sample showed that the pressure dependency of rock velocity can be satisfactorily modeled by the developed model using the pressure dependent stiff and compliant porosity and carefully estimated stiff and compliant pore aspect ratio values.

  7. Treating asphericity in fuel particle pressure vessel modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Gregory K.; Wadsworth, Derek C.

    1994-07-01

    The prototypical nuclear fuel of the New Production Modular High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (NP-MHTGR) consists of spherical TRISO-coated particles suspended in graphite cylinders. The coating layers surrounding the fuel kernels in these particles consist of pyrolytic carbon layers and a silicon carbide layer. These coating layers act as a pressure vessel which retains fission product gases. In the operating conditions of the NP-MHTGR, a small percentage of these particles (pressure vessels) are expected to fail due to the pressure loading. The fuel particles of the NP-MHTGR deviate to some degree from a true spherical shape, which may have some effect on the failure percentages. A method is presented that treats the asphericity of the particles in predicting failure probabilities for particle samples. It utilizes a combination of finite element analysis and Monte Carlo sampling and is based on the Weibull statistical theory. The method is used here to assess the effects of asphericity in particles of two common geometric shapes, i.e. faceted particles and ellipsoidal particles. The method presented could be used to treat particle anomalies other than asphericity.

  8. Modeling the convective and pressure terms in finite-volume LES with unresolved wall layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Henry; Moser, Robert

    2010-11-01

    An incompressible turbulent channel flow is solved using a staggered grid finite volume LES. The grid is uniform with δy^+=50 and is therefore unresolved near the wall. Our primary focus is on accurately modeling the convective and pressure terms in the LES equations. We use the fractional-step method, along with a pressure model from Harlow and Welch (1965). We have found that the pressure model itself--a discrete divergence-free projection--is sufficiently accurate. It is actually the convective term and it's divergence-free projection that are inadequately modeled. In light of this, we are investigating methods for improving the convective model. For example, we are attempting to construct models which statistically represent both the convective and pressure terms from the Reynolds stress equation.

  9. Modeling Manufacturing Processes to Mitigate Technological Risk

    SciTech Connect

    Allgood, G.O.; Manges, W.W.

    1999-10-24

    An economic model is a tool for determining the justifiable cost of new sensors and subsystems with respect to value and operation. This process balances the R and D costs against the expense of maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The model can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.). This model has been successfully used and deployed in the CAFE Project. The economic model was one of seven (see Fig. 1) elements critical in developing an investment strategy. It has been successfully used in guiding the R and D activities on the CAFE Project, suspending activities on three new sensor technologies, and continuing development o f two others. The model has also been used to justify the development of a new prognostic approach for diagnosing machine health using COTS equipment and a new algorithmic approach. maintaining current operations and allows for a method to calculate economic indices of performance that can be used as control points in deciding whether to continue development or suspend actions. The model can also be used as an integral part of an overall control loop utilizing real-time process data from the sensor groups to make production decisions (stop production and repair machine, continue and warn of anticipated problems, queue for repairs, etc.).

  10. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  11. Quantitative assessment of changes in landslide risk using a regional scale run-out model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussin, Haydar; Chen, Lixia; Ciurean, Roxana; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola; Sterlacchini, Simone

    2015-04-01

    The risk of landslide hazard continuously changes in time and space and is rarely a static or constant phenomena in an affected area. However one of the main challenges of quantitatively assessing changes in landslide risk is the availability of multi-temporal data for the different components of risk. Furthermore, a truly "quantitative" landslide risk analysis requires the modeling of the landslide intensity (e.g. flow depth, velocities or impact pressures) affecting the elements at risk. Such a quantitative approach is often lacking in medium to regional scale studies in the scientific literature or is left out altogether. In this research we modelled the temporal and spatial changes of debris flow risk in a narrow alpine valley in the North Eastern Italian Alps. The debris flow inventory from 1996 to 2011 and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) were used to assess the susceptibility of debris flow triggering areas and to simulate debris flow run-out using the Flow-R regional scale model. In order to determine debris flow intensities, we used a linear relationship that was found between back calibrated physically based Flo-2D simulations (local scale models of five debris flows from 2003) and the probability values of the Flow-R software. This gave us the possibility to assign flow depth to a total of 10 separate classes on a regional scale. Debris flow vulnerability curves from the literature and one curve specifically for our case study area were used to determine the damage for different material and building types associated with the elements at risk. The building values were obtained from the Italian Revenue Agency (Agenzia delle Entrate) and were classified per cadastral zone according to the Real Estate Observatory data (Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare, Agenzia Entrate - OMI). The minimum and maximum market value for each building was obtained by multiplying the corresponding land-use value (€/msq) with building area and number of floors

  12. Differential effects of the changes of LDL cholesterol and systolic blood pressure on the risk of carotid artery atherosclerosis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The effects of baseline and changes in blood pressure and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol on the carotid intima media thickness (IMT) have not been well documented. Methods A total of 2572 adults (mean age 53.8 years, 54.6% women) in a Taiwanese community undertook three blood pressure and LDL cholesterol examinations over 6 years. Latent growth curve modeling was used to investigate the effects of baseline and change in blood pressure and LDL cholesterol on IMT. Results Greater baseline LDL and blood pressure were associated with an increase in IMT (0.005 ± 0.002 mm per 1 mg/dL [p = 0.006] and 0.041 ± 0.004 mm mmHg [p <0.0001], respectively. Change in blood pressure was associated with a significant increase in IMT (0.047±0.016, P = 0.004), whilst the association between change in LDL and change in IMT was not statistically significant (0.008±0.006, P = 0.20). Conclusions Carotid IMT was associated with baseline blood pressure and LDL cholesterol, yet only changes of blood pressure, not LDL cholesterol, were related to carotid IMT during the 6-year observation. PMID:22900906

  13. Tests of models equipped with TPS in low speed ONERA F1 pressurized wind tunnel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leynaert, J.

    1992-09-01

    The particular conditions of tests of models equipped with a turbofan powered simulator (TPS) at high Reynolds numbers in a pressurized wind tunnel are presented. The high-pressure air supply system of the wind tunnel, the equipment of the balance with the high-pressure traversing flow and its calibration, and the thrust calibration method of the TPS and its verification in the wind tunnel are described.

  14. Method for Standardizing Sonic-Boom Model Pressure Signatures Measured at Several Wind-Tunnel Facilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mack, Robert J.

    2007-01-01

    Low-boom model pressure signatures are often measured at two or more wind-tunnel facilities. Preliminary measurements are made at small separation distances in a wind tunnel close at hand, and a second set of pressure signatures is measured at larger separation distances in a wind-tunnel facility with a larger test section. In this report, a method for correcting and standardizing the wind-tunnel-measured pressure signatures obtained in different wind tunnel facilities is presented and discussed.

  15. Application of the Beck model to stock markets: Value-at-Risk and portfolio risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozaki, M.; Sato, A.-H.

    2008-02-01

    We apply the Beck model, developed for turbulent systems that exhibit scaling properties, to stock markets. Our study reveals that the Beck model elucidates the properties of stock market returns and is applicable to practical use such as the Value-at-Risk estimation and the portfolio analysis. We perform empirical analysis with daily/intraday data of the S&P500 index return and find that the volatility fluctuation of real markets is well-consistent with the assumptions of the Beck model: The volatility fluctuates at a much larger time scale than the return itself and the inverse of variance, or “inverse temperature”, β obeys Γ-distribution. As predicted by the Beck model, the distribution of returns is well-fitted by q-Gaussian distribution of Tsallis statistics. The evaluation method of Value-at-Risk (VaR), one of the most significant indicators in risk management, is studied for q-Gaussian distribution. Our proposed method enables the VaR evaluation in consideration of tail risk, which is underestimated by the variance-covariance method. A framework of portfolio risk assessment under the existence of tail risk is considered. We propose a multi-asset model with a single volatility fluctuation shared by all assets, named the single β model, and empirically examine the agreement between the model and an imaginary portfolio with Dow Jones indices. It turns out that the single β model gives good approximation to portfolios composed of the assets with non-Gaussian and correlated returns.

  16. Discussing Coronary Risk with Patients to Improve Blood Pressure Treatment: Secondary Results from the CHECK-UP Study

    PubMed Central

    Lowensteyn, Ilka; Joseph, Lawrence; Kaouache, Mohammed; Marchand, Sylvie; Coupal, Louis; Boudreau, Ghislain

    2008-01-01

    Objectives Hypertension is common among patients with dyslipidemia but is often poorly treated. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate how a decision aid, used by primary care physicians to improve lipid therapy, impacted on the treatment of hypertension. Study Design Data were analyzed from patients enrolled in a randomized trial focusing primarily on the treatment of dyslipidemia. Patients received usual care or a coronary risk profile every three months to monitor the risk reduction following lifestyle changes and/or pharmacotherapy to treat dyslipidemia. Hypertension management was assessed based on a post hoc analysis of individuals whose blood pressure exceeded current national hypertension guidelines. Results There were 2,631 subjects who completed the study. Among 1,352 patients without diagnosed hypertension, 30% were above target on at least three consecutive visits. Among 1,279 individuals with known hypertension, 69% were above target on at least two consecutive visits. Overall, patients receiving risk profiles were more likely to receive appropriate antihypertensive therapy (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.11 – 1.78) compared to those receiving usual care. After adjustment for inter-physician variability and potential confounders, the use of the risk profile was associated with an increased likelihood of starting therapy (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.06 – 3.00) or modifying therapy (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.03 – 1.91). Conclusions In this clinical trial of dyslipidemia management, inadequately controlled hypertension was common, occurring in nearly 50% of individuals. Ongoing coronary risk assessment was associated with more appropriate blood pressure management. Cardiovascular risk assessment decision aids should be further evaluated in a randomized trial of hypertension therapy. PMID:18937013

  17. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    PubMed

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. PMID:23163724

  18. Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

    PubMed

    Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-11-01

    Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis.

  19. MODELING APPROACHES TO POPULATION-LEVEL RISK AESSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  20. Quantitative risk assessment modeling for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels.

    PubMed

    Meng, Qiang; Qu, Xiaobo; Wang, Xinchang; Yuanita, Vivi; Wong, Siew Chee

    2011-03-01

    Urban road tunnels provide an increasingly cost-effective engineering solution, especially in compact cities like Singapore. For some urban road tunnels, tunnel characteristics such as tunnel configurations, geometries, provisions of tunnel electrical and mechanical systems, traffic volumes, etc. may vary from one section to another. These urban road tunnels that have characterized nonuniform parameters are referred to as nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels. In this study, a novel quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model is proposed for nonhomogeneous urban road tunnels because the existing QRA models for road tunnels are inapplicable to assess the risks in these road tunnels. This model uses a tunnel segmentation principle whereby a nonhomogeneous urban road tunnel is divided into various homogenous sections. Individual risk for road tunnel sections as well as the integrated risk indices for the entire road tunnel is defined. The article then proceeds to develop a new QRA model for each of the homogeneous sections. Compared to the existing QRA models for road tunnels, this section-based model incorporates one additional top event-toxic gases due to traffic congestion-and employs the Poisson regression method to estimate the vehicle accident frequencies of tunnel sections. This article further illustrates an aggregated QRA model for nonhomogeneous urban tunnels by integrating the section-based QRA models. Finally, a case study in Singapore is carried out.

  1. Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yan, Yan

    2009-01-01

    The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

  2. Dental caries: an updated medical model of risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Kutsch, V Kim

    2014-04-01

    Dental caries is a transmissible, complex biofilm disease that creates prolonged periods of low pH in the mouth, resulting in a net mineral loss from the teeth. Historically, the disease model for dental caries consisted of mutans streptococci and Lactobacillus species, and the dental profession focused on restoring the lesions/damage from the disease by using a surgical model. The current recommendation is to implement a risk-assessment-based medical model called CAMBRA (caries management by risk assessment) to diagnose and treat dental caries. Unfortunately, many of the suggestions of CAMBRA have been overly complicated and confusing for clinicians. The risk of caries, however, is usually related to just a few common factors, and these factors result in common patterns of disease. This article examines the biofilm model of dental caries, identifies the common disease patterns, and discusses their targeted therapeutic strategies to make CAMBRA more easily adaptable for the privately practicing professional.

  3. Intraocular pressure and glaucoma: Is physical exercise beneficial or a risk?

    PubMed

    McMonnies, Charles William

    2016-01-01

    Intraocular pressure may become elevated with muscle exertion, changes in body position and increased respiratory volumes, especially when Valsalva manoeuver mechanisms are involved. All of these factors may be present during physical exercise, especially if hydration levels are increased. This review examines the evidence for intraocular pressure changes during and after physical exercise. Intraocular pressure elevation may result in a reduction in ocular perfusion pressure with the associated possibility of mechanical and/or ischaemic damage to the optic nerve head. A key consideration is the possibility that, rather than being beneficial for patients who are susceptible to glaucomatous pathology, any intraocular pressure elevation could be detrimental. Lower intraocular pressure after exercise may result from its elevation causing accelerated aqueous outflow during exercise. Also examined is the possibility that people who have lower frailty are more likely to exercise as well as less likely to have or develop glaucoma. Consequently, lower prevalence of glaucoma would be expected among people who exercise. The evidence base for this topic is deficient and would be greatly improved by the availability of tonometry assessment during dynamic exercise, more studies which control for hydration levels, and methods for assessing the potential general health benefits of exercise against any possibility of exacerbated glaucomatous pathology for individual patients who are susceptible to such changes.

  4. Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xapos, M. A.; Stauffer, C.; Gee, G. B.; Barth, J. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; McGuire, R. E.

    2004-01-01

    A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

  5. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

  6. A Seismic Velocity-Pressure Model for Sedimentary Rocks Consistent with Critical Porosity and Compaction Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saul, M.; Lumley, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    Knowledge of the pressure dependence of seismic rock properties is useful for analysis of sedimentary basins, prediction of pore pressure and geomechanical effects, and time-lapse monitoring of groundwater, petroleum, geothermal and CO2 sequestration reservoirs. We are especially interested in changes in seismic rock properties due to changes in pore pressure caused by injection or withdrawal of fluids from the sedimentary rock. A long standing problem has been that physical model-based derivations of velocity-pressure relationships (e.g., Hertz-Mindlin) do not fit lab measurements well, and alternatively, empirical regressions that are fit to specific data points do not extrapolate well to other conditions because they have little or no physical basis. A key problem is the accurate determination of the dry rock frame properties at low effective pressure (i.e., high pore pressure), particularly when ultrasonic lab measurements at or near zero effective pressure are not available. We propose a double exponential model to describe the pressure sensitivity of the bulk modulus (K) and shear modulus (G) for unconsolidated sands. The physical basis for this model incorporates compaction porosity-depth trends for unconsolidated sands, and the concept of critical porosity when a sediment-fluid mixture is at the critical point of a suspension. Grain size distribution and sorting information is used to estimate the critical porosity of a rock when it was first deposited as sediment, and this value is used to constrain the compacted rock velocity at zero effective pressure. A porosity-pressure relationship is included in the model to account for porosity loss with increases in effective pressure, and this leads to a relationship to predict density changes with effective pressure. Our new model is tested on laboratory measurements of unsaturated sand samples and fits well over a wide range of pressure conditions, grain size distributions and compositions. This new velocity-pressure

  7. Non-Gaussian PDF Modeling of Turbulent Boundary Layer Fluctuating Pressure Excitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steinwolf, Alexander; Rizzi, Stephen A.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of the study is to investigate properties of the probability density function (PDF) of turbulent boundary layer fluctuating pressures measured on the exterior of a supersonic transport aircraft. It is shown that fluctuating pressure PDFs differ from the Gaussian distribution even for surface conditions having no significant discontinuities. The PDF tails are wider and longer than those of the Gaussian model. For pressure fluctuations upstream of forward-facing step discontinuities and downstream of aft-facing step discontinuities, deviations from the Gaussian model are more significant and the PDFs become asymmetrical. Various analytical PDF distributions are used and further developed to model this behavior.

  8. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators. PMID:25346751

  9. A General Pressure Gradient Formulation for Ocean Models - Part II: Energy, Momentum, and Bottom Torque Consistency

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Song, Y.; Wright, D.

    1998-01-01

    A formulation of the pressure gradient force for use in models with topography-following coordinates is proposed and diagnostically analyzed by Song. We investigate numerical consistency with respect to global energy conservation, depth-integrated momentum changes, and the represent of the bottom pressure torque.

  10. Testing a Model of Resistance to Peer Pressure among Mexican-Origin Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bamaca, Mayra Y.; Umana-Taylor, Adriana J.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined the factors associated with resistance to peer pressure toward antisocial behaviors among a sample of Mexican-origin adolescents (n=564) living in a large Southwestern city in the U.S. A model examining the influence of generational status, emotional autonomy from parents, and self-esteem on resistance to peer pressure was…

  11. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  12. Tea, but not coffee consumption, is associated with components of arterial pressure. The Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors study in Luxembourg.

    PubMed

    Alkerwi, Ala'a; Sauvageot, Nicolas; Crichton, Georgina E; Elias, Merrill F

    2015-07-01

    There is uncertainty regarding the impact of tea and coffee consumption on arterial blood pressure. The present study aimed to examine the association between blood pressure (BP) components, namely, systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP, mean arterial pressure, and pulse pressure (PP), and tea or coffee consumption, taking into account simultaneous consumption. The study population was derived from a national cross-sectional stratified sample of 1352 individuals aged 18 to 69 years, recruited between November 2007 and January 2009 to participate in the Observation of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Luxembourg study. We hypothesized that greater tea consumption would be independently associated with lower BP. Tea and coffee consumptions in deciliters per day were obtained from a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Participants were classified into 3 groups: nonconsumers, ≤3-dL/d consumers, and >3-dL/d consumers of each beverage separately. After exclusion of subjects taking antihypertensive medications, several general linear models were performed to investigate the independent relationship between tea/coffee consumption and BP components. Tea consumers (36.3%) were more likely to be younger women, nonsmokers, with better cardiometabolic profiles, and less frequent chronic pathologies, whereas the reverse was true for coffee consumers (88%). Greater tea consumption was associated with lower SBP and PP values, after adjustment for age, sex, education, lifestyle, and dietary confounding factors, including coffee drinking. No association between BP components and coffee consumption was observed. Daily consumption of 1 dL of tea was associated with a significant reduction of SBP by 0.6 mm Hg and PP by 0.5 mm Hg. Given the widespread consumption of tea and coffee throughout the world, together with the major cardiovascular disease risk, our findings have important implications for human health.

  13. Risk Classification with an Adaptive Naive Bayes Kernel Machine Model

    PubMed Central

    Minnier, Jessica; Yuan, Ming; Liu, Jun S.; Cai, Tianxi

    2014-01-01

    Genetic studies of complex traits have uncovered only a small number of risk markers explaining a small fraction of heritability and adding little improvement to disease risk prediction. Standard single marker methods may lack power in selecting informative markers or estimating effects. Most existing methods also typically do not account for non-linearity. Identifying markers with weak signals and estimating their joint effects among many non-informative markers remains challenging. One potential approach is to group markers based on biological knowledge such as gene structure. If markers in a group tend to have similar effects, proper usage of the group structure could improve power and efficiency in estimation. We propose a two-stage method relating markers to disease risk by taking advantage of known gene-set structures. Imposing a naive bayes kernel machine (KM) model, we estimate gene-set specific risk models that relate each gene-set to the outcome in stage I. The KM framework efficiently models potentially non-linear effects of predictors without requiring explicit specification of functional forms. In stage II, we aggregate information across gene-sets via a regularization procedure. Estimation and computational efficiency is further improved with kernel principle component analysis. Asymptotic results for model estimation and gene set selection are derived and numerical studies suggest that the proposed procedure could outperform existing procedures for constructing genetic risk models. PMID:26236061

  14. Beliefs and stochastic modelling of interest rate scenario risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galic, E.; Molgedey, L.

    2001-04-01

    We present a framework that allows for a systematic assessment of risk given a specific model and belief on the market. Within this framework the time evolution of risk is modeled in a twofold way. On the one hand, risk is modeled by the time discrete and nonlinear garch(1,1) process, which allows for a (time-)local understanding of its level, together with a short term forecast. On the other hand, via a diffusion approximation, the time evolution of the probability density of risk is modeled by a Fokker-Planck equation. Then, as a final step, using Bayes theorem, beliefs are conditioned on the stationary probability density function as obtained from the Fokker-Planck equation. We believe this to be a highly rigorous framework to integrate subjective judgments of future market behavior and underlying models. In order to demonstrate the approach, we apply it to risk assessment of empirical interest rate scenario methodologies, i.e. the application of Principal Component Analysis to the the dynamics of bonds.

  15. Credibility analysis of risk classes by generalized linear model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdemir, Ovgucan Karadag; Sucu, Meral

    2016-06-01

    In this paper generalized linear model (GLM) and credibility theory which are frequently used in nonlife insurance pricing are combined for reliability analysis. Using full credibility standard, GLM is associated with limited fluctuation credibility approach. Comparison criteria such as asymptotic variance and credibility probability are used to analyze the credibility of risk classes. An application is performed by using one-year claim frequency data of a Turkish insurance company and results of credible risk classes are interpreted.

  16. Model-based benefit-risk assessment: can Archimedes help?

    PubMed

    Krishna, R

    2009-03-01

    In December 2008, the US Food and Drug Administration issued a new draft Guidance for Industry on Diabetes Mellitus--evaluating cardiovascular risk in new antidiabetic therapies to treat Type 2 diabetes. This guidance comes at a time when recent discussions have focused on delineation of cardiovascular risk reduction for new antidiabetic drugs. Computational tools that can enable early prediction of cardiovascular risk are reviewed with specific reference to Archimedes (Kaiser Permanente), with an aim of proposing a model-based solution and enabling decisions to be made as early as possible in the drug development value chain.

  17. Large scale modelling of salmon lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) infection pressure based on lice monitoring data from Norwegian salmonid farms.

    PubMed

    Kristoffersen, Anja B; Jimenez, Daniel; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Grøntvedt, Randi; Stien, Audun; Jansen, Peder A

    2014-12-01

    Infection by parasitic sea lice is a substantial problem in industrial scale salmon farming. To control the problem, Norwegian salmonid farms are not permitted to exceed a threshold level of infection on their fish, and farms are required to monitor and report lice levels on a weekly basis to ensure compliance with the regulation. In the present study, we combine the monitoring data with a deterministic model for salmon lice population dynamics to estimate farm production of infectious lice stages. Furthermore, we use an empirical estimate of the relative risk of salmon lice transmission between farms, that depend on inter-farm distances, to estimate the external infection pressure at a farm site, i.e. the infection pressure from infective salmon lice of neighbouring farm origin. Finally, we test whether our estimates of infection pressure from neighbouring farms as well as internal within farm infection pressure, predicts subsequent development of infection in cohorts of farmed salmonids in their initial phase of marine production. We find that estimated external infection pressure is a main predictor of salmon lice population dynamics in newly stocked cohorts of salmonids. Our results emphasize the importance of keeping the production of infectious lice stages at low levels within local networks of salmon farms. Our model can easily be implemented for real time estimation of infection pressure at the national scale, utilizing the masses of data generated through the compulsory lice monitoring in salmon farms. The implementation of such a system should give the salmon industry greater predictability with respect to salmon lice infection levels, and aid the decision making process when the development of new farm sites are planned.

  18. Reduction of aneurysm pressure and wall stress after endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm in a canine model.

    PubMed

    Marston, W A; Criado, E; Baird, C A; Keagy, B A

    1996-03-01

    A canine model was designed to evaluate the changes in abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) pressure and wall stress after endovascular repair. Eight canines underwent laparotomy and creation of an AAA. The aneurysm was then excluded with a transluminally placed endovascular graft (TPEG) inserted through the right femoral artery and deployed across the AAA to exclude the infrarenal aortic branches from aortic perfusion. Blood pressure and flow data were recorded for 6 hours. The AAA blood pressure decreased from 135 +/- 9.3 mm Hg before exclusion to 45 +/- 17.6 mm Hg at 10 minutes after exclusion (p < 0.001). At 6 hours, AAA blood pressure had declined further to 26 +/- 12.5 mm Hg. Blood flow in the excluded iliac artery decreased from a baseline of 242 +/- 58 ml/min to 41 +/- 29 ml/min 10 minutes after TPEG placement (p < 0.001). At 6 hours, flow was reduced to 12 +/- 3.5 ml/min (p < 0.05 compared with that at 10 minutes). Aortic wall stress was significantly reduced by TPEG placement but was only slightly lower than baseline aortic wall stress before AAA creation. The lumbar arteries were patent with retrograde flow in all cases and were found to be the major contributors to postexclusion aneurysm pressure. Endovascular AAA exclusion results in an immediate decrease in blood pressure and wall stress within the excluded aneurysm, but the aneurysm remains perfused by retrograde flow through the lumbar arteries, which resulted in near-baseline levels of aneurysm wall stress in this canine model. Embolization of patient lumbar vessels at prosthesis placement may further reduce the risk of late rupture. PMID:8733869

  19. Risk Management Model in Surface Exploitation of Mineral Deposits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojanović, Cvjetko

    2016-06-01

    Risk management is an integrative part of all types of project management. One of the main tasks of pre-investment studies and other project documentation is the tendency to protect investment projects as much as possible against investment risks. Therefore, the provision and regulation of risk information ensure the identification of the probability of the emergence of adverse events, their forms, causes and consequences, and provides a timely measures of protection against risks. This means that risk management involves a set of management methods and techniques used to reduce the possibility of realizing the adverse events and consequences and thus increase the possibilities of achieving the planned results with minimal losses. Investment in mining projects are of capital importance because they are very complex projects, therefore being very risky, because of the influence of internal and external factors and limitations arising from the socio-economic environment. Due to the lack of a risk management system, numerous organizations worldwide have suffered significant financial losses. Therefore, it is necessary for any organization to establish a risk management system as a structural element of system management system as a whole. This paper presents an approach to a Risk management model in the project of opening a surface coal mine, developed based on studies of extensive scientific literature and personal experiences of the author, and which, with certain modifications, may find use for any investment project, both in the mining industry as well as in investment projects in other areas.

  20. Effect of Pore Pressure on Slip Failure of an Impermeable Fault: A Coupled Micro Hydro-Geomechanical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Z.; Juanes, R.

    2015-12-01

    The geomechanical processes associated with subsurface fluid injection/extraction is of central importance for many industrial operations related to energy and water resources. However, the mechanisms controlling the stability and slip motion of a preexisting geologic fault remain poorly understood and are critical for the assessment of seismic risk. In this work, we develop a coupled hydro-geomechanical model to investigate the effect of fluid injection induced pressure perturbation on the slip behavior of a sealing fault. The model couples single-phase flow in the pores and mechanics of the solid phase. Granular packs (see example in Fig. 1a) are numerically generated where the grains can be either bonded or not, depending on the degree of cementation. A pore network is extracted for each granular pack with pore body volumes and pore throat conductivities calculated rigorously based on geometry of the local pore space. The pore fluid pressure is solved via an explicit scheme, taking into account the effect of deformation of the solid matrix. The mechanics part of the model is solved using the discrete element method (DEM). We first test the validity of the model with regard to the classical one-dimensional consolidation problem where an analytical solution exists. We then demonstrate the ability of the coupled model to reproduce rock deformation behavior measured in triaxial laboratory tests under the influence of pore pressure. We proceed to study the fault stability in presence of a pressure discontinuity across the impermeable fault which is implemented as a plane with its intersected pore throats being deactivated and thus obstructing fluid flow (Fig. 1b, c). We focus on the onset of shear failure along preexisting faults. We discuss the fault stability criterion in light of the numerical results obtained from the DEM simulations coupled with pore fluid flow. The implication on how should faults be treated in a large-scale continuum model is also presented.

  1. Modelling microbial health risk of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Beaudequin, Denise; Harden, Fiona; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2015-11-01

    There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health risk. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model representing factors contributing to the microbiological health risks of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised model that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial risk as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual model of health risk of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health risk in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios. PMID:26277638

  2. Consequences of Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Cardiovascular Risk of Obstructive Sleep Apnea and Whether Continuous Positive Airway Pressure Reduces that Risk.

    PubMed

    Khayat, Rami; Pleister, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is present in up to 25% of otherwise healthy individuals. OSA is associated with intermittent hypoxia, oxidative stress, sympathetic activation, and an inflammatory response. These perturbations mediate the role of OSA as an independent and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD). OSA can induce CVD or accelerate the progression of CVD into an end-stage disorder, including heart failure and stroke. Current clinical recommendations are based on existing clinical trial data and the clinical experience of our program; current and future clinical trials will help to optimize management of OSA in the setting of CVD. PMID:27542874

  3. Assessing risk factors for dental caries: a statistical modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Trottini, Mario; Bossù, Maurizio; Corridore, Denise; Ierardo, Gaetano; Luzzi, Valeria; Saccucci, Matteo; Polimeni, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    The problem of identifying potential determinants and predictors of dental caries is of key importance in caries research and it has received considerable attention in the scientific literature. From the methodological side, a broad range of statistical models is currently available to analyze dental caries indices (DMFT, dmfs, etc.). These models have been applied in several studies to investigate the impact of different risk factors on the cumulative severity of dental caries experience. However, in most of the cases (i) these studies focus on a very specific subset of risk factors; and (ii) in the statistical modeling only few candidate models are considered and model selection is at best only marginally addressed. As a result, our understanding of the robustness of the statistical inferences with respect to the choice of the model is very limited; the richness of the set of statistical models available for analysis in only marginally exploited; and inferences could be biased due the omission of potentially important confounding variables in the model's specification. In this paper we argue that these limitations can be overcome considering a general class of candidate models and carefully exploring the model space using standard model selection criteria and measures of global fit and predictive performance of the candidate models. Strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real data set. In our illustration the model space contains more than 2.6 million models, which require inferences to be adjusted for 'optimism'.

  4. Carotid Artery IMT, Blood Pressure, and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Males and Females

    PubMed Central

    CROMWELL, CHRISTINA M.; AICHELE, KRISTIN R.; OAKMAN, JOYANN E.; NEAL, MICHAEL P.; LENZO, JESSICA M.; PEREZ, AVERY N.; BYE, NAOMI L.; SANTANIELLO, ERICA L.; HILL, JESSICA A.; EVANS, RACHEL C.; THIELE, KARLA A.; CHAVIS, LAUREN N.; GETTY, ALLYSON K.; WISDO, TIA R.; FEAIRHELLER, DEBORAH L.

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have investigated carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and blood pressure and found a direct correlation between the two. It is known that adult females have better cardiovascular health than males until a certain stage of life, yet limited research has examined gender differences in vascular function. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate vascular structure and function, blood pressure, and blood glucose/cholesterol levels in relation to gender differences in young healthy adults. On three separate days, 44 adults (26.30 ± 11.9yrs; 24M, 20F) completed a carotid IMT ultrasound, a flow-mediated dilation (FMD), a fasted glucose and cholesterol test, a 24hr ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, a VO2max test, and a body composition measurement. Females had lower systolic blood pressure, lower diastolic blood pressure, lower LDL/HDL ratios, lower body mass index, a higher HDL count, and lower plasma glucose levels than males (p < 0.05 for all), all of which suggest better cardiovascular health. However, we found no gender differences in vascular health measures, IMT and FMD. Our results suggest that while young adult females have better cardiovascular health than males, endothelial function may not yet be affected in the young adult years. PMID:27766134

  5. NASA Space Radiation Program Integrative Risk Model Toolkit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Sandridge, Chris

    2015-01-01

    NASA Space Radiation Program Element scientists have been actively involved in development of an integrative risk models toolkit that includes models for acute radiation risk and organ dose projection (ARRBOD), NASA space radiation cancer risk projection (NSCR), hemocyte dose estimation (HemoDose), GCR event-based risk model code (GERMcode), and relativistic ion tracks (RITRACKS), NASA radiation track image (NASARTI), and the On-Line Tool for the Assessment of Radiation in Space (OLTARIS). This session will introduce the components of the risk toolkit with opportunity for hands on demonstrations. The brief descriptions of each tools are: ARRBOD for Organ dose projection and acute radiation risk calculation from exposure to solar particle event; NSCR for Projection of cancer risk from exposure to space radiation; HemoDose for retrospective dose estimation by using multi-type blood cell counts; GERMcode for basic physical and biophysical properties for an ion beam, and biophysical and radiobiological properties for a beam transport to the target in the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory beam line; RITRACKS for simulation of heavy ion and delta-ray track structure, radiation chemistry, DNA structure and DNA damage at the molecular scale; NASARTI for modeling of the effects of space radiation on human cells and tissue by incorporating a physical model of tracks, cell nucleus, and DNA damage foci with image segmentation for the automated count; and OLTARIS, an integrated tool set utilizing HZETRN (High Charge and Energy Transport) intended to help scientists and engineers study the effects of space radiation on shielding materials, electronics, and biological systems.

  6. PEP-II vacuum system pressure profile modeling using EXCEL

    SciTech Connect

    Nordby, M.; Perkins, C.

    1994-06-01

    A generic, adaptable Microsoft EXCEL program to simulate molecular flow in beam line vacuum systems is introduced. Modeling using finite-element approximation of the governing differential equation is discussed, as well as error estimation and program capabilities. The ease of use and flexibility of the spreadsheet-based program is demonstrated. PEP-II vacuum system models are reviewed and compared with analytical models.

  7. Finite element analysis to characterize how varying patellar loading influences pressure applied to cartilage: model evaluation.

    PubMed

    Shah, Kushal S; Saranathan, Archana; Koya, Bharath; Elias, John J

    2015-01-01

    A finite element analysis (FEA) modeling technique has been developed to characterize how varying the orientation of the patellar tendon influences the patellofemoral pressure distribution. To evaluate the accuracy of the technique, models were created from MRI images to represent five knees that were previously tested in vitro to determine the influence of hamstrings loading on patellofemoral contact pressures. Hamstrings loading increased the lateral and posterior orientation of the patellar tendon. Each model was loaded at 40°, 60°, and 80° of flexion with quadriceps force vectors representing the experimental loading conditions. The orientation of the patellar tendon was represented for the loaded and unloaded hamstrings conditions based on experimental measures of tibiofemoral alignment. Similar to the experimental data, simulated loading of the hamstrings within the FEA models shifted the center of pressure laterally and increased the maximum lateral pressure. Significant (p < 0.05) differences were identified for the center of pressure and maximum lateral pressure from paired t-tests carried out at the individual flexion angles. The ability to replicate experimental trends indicates that the FEA models can be used for future studies focused on determining how variations in the orientation of the patellar tendon related to anatomical or loading variations or surgical procedures influence the patellofemoral pressure distribution.

  8. Cuttings-liquid frictional pressure loss model for horizontal narrow annular flow with rotating drillpipe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ofei, T. N.; Irawan, S.; Pao, W.

    2015-04-01

    During oil and gas drilling operations, frictional pressure loss is experienced as the drilling fluid transports the drilled cuttings from the bottom-hole, through the annulus, to the surface. Estimation of these pressure losses is critical when designing the drilling hydraulic program. Two-phase frictional pressure loss in the annulus is very difficult to predict, and even more complex when there is drillpipe rotation. Accurate prediction will ensure that the correct equivalent circulating density (ECD) is applied in the wellbore to prevent formation fracture, especially in formations with narrow window between the pore pressure and fracture gradient. Few researchers have attempted to propose cuttings-liquid frictional pressure loss models, nevertheless, these models fail when they are applied to narrow wellbores such as in casing- while-drilling and slimhole applications. This study proposes improved cuttings-liquid frictional pressure loss models for narrow horizontal annuli with drillpipe rotation using Dimensional Analysis. Both Newtonian and non-Newtonian fluids were considered. The proposed model constants were fitted by generated data from a full-scale simulation study using ANSYS-CFX. The models showed improvement over existing cuttings-liquid pressure loss correlations in literature.

  9. Investigation of contact pressure and influence function model for soft wheel polishing.

    PubMed

    Rao, Zhimin; Guo, Bing; Zhao, Qingliang

    2015-09-20

    The tool influence function (TIF) is critical for calculating the dwell-time map to improve form accuracy. We present the TIF for the process of computer-controlled polishing with a soft polishing wheel. In this paper, the static TIF was developed based on the Preston equation. The pressure distribution was verified by the real removal spot section profiles. According to the experiment measurements, the pressure distribution simulated by Hertz contact theory was much larger than the real contact pressure. The simulated pressure distribution, which was modeled by the Winkler elastic foundation for a soft polishing wheel, matched the real contact pressure. A series of experiments was conducted to obtain the removal spot statistical properties for validating the relationship between material removal and processing time and contact pressure and relative velocity, along with calculating the fitted parameters to establish the TIF. The developed TIF predicted the removal character for the studied soft wheel polishing. PMID:26406510

  10. Intraocular Pressure, Blood Pressure, and Retinal Blood Flow Autoregulation: A Mathematical Model to Clarify Their Relationship and Clinical Relevance

    PubMed Central

    Guidoboni, Giovanna; Harris, Alon; Cassani, Simone; Arciero, Julia; Siesky, Brent; Amireskandari, Annahita; Tobe, Leslie; Egan, Patrick; Januleviciene, Ingrida; Park, Joshua

    2014-01-01

    Purpose. This study investigates the relationship between intraocular pressure (IOP) and retinal hemodynamics and predicts how arterial blood pressure (BP) and blood flow autoregulation (AR) influence this relationship. Methods. A mathematical model is developed to simulate blood flow in the central retinal vessels and retinal microvasculature as current flowing through a network of resistances and capacitances. Variable resistances describe active and passive diameter changes due to AR and IOP. The model is validated by using clinically measured values of retinal blood flow and velocity. The model simulations for six theoretical patients with high, normal, and low BP (HBP-, NBP-, LBP-) and functional or absent AR (-wAR, -woAR) are compared with clinical data. Results. The model predicts that NBPwAR and HBPwAR patients can regulate retinal blood flow (RBF) as IOP varies between 15 and 23 mm Hg and between 23 and 29 mm Hg, respectively, whereas LBPwAR patients do not adequately regulate blood flow if IOP is 15 mm Hg or higher. Hemodynamic alterations would be noticeable only if IOP changes occur outside of the regulating range, which, most importantly, depend on BP. The model predictions are consistent with clinical data for IOP reduction via surgery and medications and for cases of induced IOP elevation. Conclusions. The theoretical model results suggest that the ability of IOP to induce noticeable changes in retinal hemodynamics depends on the levels of BP and AR of the individual. These predictions might help to explain the inconsistencies found in the clinical literature concerning the relationship between IOP and retinal hemodynamics. PMID:24876284

  11. Tuning of turbulent boundary layer anisotropy for improved surface pressure and trailing-edge noise modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertagnolio, Franck; Fischer, Andreas; Jun Zhu, Wei

    2014-02-01

    The modeling of the surface pressure spectrum beneath a turbulent boundary layer is investigated, focusing on the case of airfoil flows and associated trailing edge noise prediction using the so-called TNO model. This type of flow is characterized by the presence of an adverse pressure gradient along the airfoil chord. It is shown that discrepancies between measurements and results from the TNO model increase as the pressure gradient increases. The original model is modified by introducing anisotropy in the definition of the turbulent vertical velocity spectrum across the boundary layer and by considering a frequency-dependent vertical correlation length. The degree of anisotropy is directly related to the strength of the pressure gradient. It is shown that by appropriately normalizing the pressure gradient and by tuning the degree of anisotropy, experimental results can be closely reproduced by the modified model. The model is validated against Large Eddy Simulation results and additional wind tunnel measurements. It is further validated in the context of trailing edge noise for which the model formulation makes use of the above surface pressure spectrum.

  12. A theoretical model for the cross spectra between pressure and temperature downstream of a combustor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miles, J. H.; Krejsa, E. A.

    1984-01-01

    A theoretical model developed to calculate pressure-temperature cross spectra, pressure spectra, temperature spectra and pressure cross spectra in a ducted combustion system is presented. The model assumes the presence of a fluctuating-volumetric-heat-release-rate disk source and takes into account the spatial distribution of the steady-state volumetric-heat flux. Using the model, pressure, velocity, and temperature perturbation relationships can be obtained. The theoretical results show that, at a given air mass flow rate, the calculated pressure-temperature cross spectra phase angle at the combustor exit depends on the model selected for the steady-state volumetric-heat flux in the combustor. Using measurements of the phase angle, an appropriate source region model was selected. The model calculations are compared with the data. The comparison shows good agreement and indicates that with the use of this model the pressure-temperature cross spectra measurements provide useful information on the physical mechanisms active at the combustion noise source.

  13. A simulation model for risk assessment of turbine wheels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Hage, Richard T.

    1991-01-01

    A simulation model has been successfully developed to evaluate the risk of the Space Shuttle auxiliary power unit (APU) turbine wheels for a specific inspection policy. Besides being an effective tool for risk/reliability evaluation, the simulation model also allows the analyst to study the trade-offs between wheel reliability, wheel life, inspection interval, and rejection crack size. For example, in the APU application, sensitivity analysis results showed that the wheel life limit has the least effect on wheel reliability when compared to the effect of the inspection interval and the rejection crack size. In summary, the simulation model developed represents a flexible tool to predict turbine wheel reliability and study the risk under different inspection policies.

  14. Model calibration for pressure drop in a pulse-jet cleaned fabric filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koehler, John L.; David, Leith

    A model based on Darcy's law allows prediction of pressure drop in a pulse-jet cleaned fabric filter. The model considers the effects of filtration velocity, dust areal density added during one filtration cycle, and pulse pressure. Data used to calibrate the model were collected in experiments with three fabric surface treatments and three dusts conducted at three filtration velocities, for a total of 27 different experimental conditions. The fabric used was polyester felt with untreated, singed, or PTFE-laminated surface. The dusts used were granite, limestone and fly ash. Filtration velocities were 50,75 and 100 mm s -1. Dust areal density added during one filtration cycle was constant, as was pulse pressure. Under these conditions, fabric surface treatment alone largely determined the values for two of the three constants in the model; the third constant depends on pressure drop characteristics of the venturi at the top of each filter bag.

  15. A finite element model of the human buttocks for prediction of seat pressure distributions.

    PubMed

    Verver, M M; van Hoof, J; Oomens, C W J; Wismans, J S H M; Baaijens, F P T

    2004-08-01

    Seating comfort is becoming increasingly important for the automotive industry. Car manufacturers use seating comfort to distinguish their products from those of competitors. However, the development and design of a new, more comfortable seat is time consuming and costly. The introduction of computer models of human and seat will accelerate this process. The contact interaction between human and seat is an important factor in the comfort sensation of subjects. This paper presents a finite element (FE) model of the human buttocks, able to predict the pressure distribution between human and seating surface by its detailed and realistic geometric description. A validation study based on volunteer experiments shows reasonable correlation in pressure distributions between the buttocks model and the volunteers. Both for simulations on a rigid and a soft cushion, the model predicts realistic seat pressure distributions. A parameter study shows that a pressure distribution at the interface between human and seat strongly depends on variations in human flesh and seat cushion properties.

  16. FINITE ELEMENT MODELS FOR COMPUTING SEISMIC INDUCED SOIL PRESSURES ON DEEPLY EMBEDDED NUCLEAR POWER PLANT STRUCTURES.

    SciTech Connect

    XU, J.; COSTANTINO, C.; HOFMAYER, C.

    2006-06-26

    PAPER DISCUSSES COMPUTATIONS OF SEISMIC INDUCED SOIL PRESSURES USING FINITE ELEMENT MODELS FOR DEEPLY EMBEDDED AND OR BURIED STIFF STRUCTURES SUCH AS THOSE APPEARING IN THE CONCEPTUAL DESIGNS OF STRUCTURES FOR ADVANCED REACTORS.

  17. The use of ecosystem models in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Starodub, M.E.; Miller, P.A.; Willes, R.F.

    1994-12-31

    Ecosystem models, when used in conjunction with available environmental effects monitoring data enable informed decisions regarding actions that should be taken to manage ecological risks from areas of localized chemical loadings and accumulation. These models provide quantitative estimates of chemical concentrations in various environmental media. The reliable application of these models as predictive tools for environmental assessment requires a thorough understanding of the theory and mathematical relationships described by the models and demands rigorous validation of input data and model results with field and laboratory data. Food chain model selection should be based on the ability to best simulate the interactions of the food web and processes governing the transfer of chemicals from the dissolved and particulate phase to various trophic levels for the site in question. This requires that the user be familiar with the theories on which these models are based, and be aware of the merits and short comings of each prior to attempting to model food chain accumulation. Questions to be asked include: are all potential exposure pathways addressed? are omitted pathways critical to the risk assessment process? is the model flexible? To answer these questions one must consider the, chemical(s) of concern, site-specific ecosystem characteristics, risk assessment receptor (aquatic, wildlife, human) dietary habits, influence of effluent characteristics on food chain dynamics.

  18. The design, construction and three dimensional modeling of a high pressure organometallic chemical vapor deposition reactor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCall, Sonya Denise

    Two high pressure reactors have been designed, built and tested, in order to extend Organometallic Chemical Vapor Deposition (OMCVD) to materials that exhibit large thermal decomposition pressures at their optimum growth temperature. The Differentially Pressure Controlled (DPC) Reactor System was designed and built for use at pressures ≤10 atm. A second generation reactor, the Compact Hard Shell (CHS) Reactor was built in order to extend pressures ≤100 atm. A physico-chemical model of the High Pressure Organometallic Chemical Vapor Deposition (HPOMCVD) process that describes three dimensional transport phenomena as well as gas-phase and surface reactions underlying the growth of compound semiconductors is presented. A reduced-order model of the Organometallic Chemical Vapor Deposition of InN from trimethylindium and ammonia at elevated pressures has been developed and tested. The model describes the flow dynamics coupled to chemical reactions and transport in the flow channel of the Compact Hard Shell Reactor, as a function of substrate temperature, total pressure and centerline flow velocity.

  19. A new model for polluted soil risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andretta, M.; Serra, R.; Villani, M.

    2006-08-01

    In this paper, we discuss the most important theoretical aspects of polluted soil Risk Assessment Methodologies, which have been developed in order to evaluate the risk, for the exposed people, connected with the residual contaminant concentration in polluted soil, and we make a short presentation of the major different kinds of risk assessment methodologies. We also underline the relevant role played, in this kind of analysis, by the pollutant transport models. We also describe a new and innovative model, based on the general framework of the so-called Cellular Automata (CA), initially developed in the UE-Esprit Project COLOMBO for the simulation of bioremediation processes. These kinds of models, for their intrinsic "finite and discrete" characteristics, seem to be very well suited for a detailed analysis of the shape of the pollutant sources, the contaminant fates and the evaluation of target in the risk assessment evaluation. In particular, we will describe the future research activities we are going to develop in the area of a strict integration between pollutant fate and transport models and Risk Analysis Methodologies.

  20. Development and application of chronic disease risk prediction models.

    PubMed

    Oh, Sun Min; Stefani, Katherine M; Kim, Hyeon Chang

    2014-07-01

    Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.

  1. An idealized transient model for melt dispersal from reactor cavities during pressurized melt ejection accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Tutu, N.K.

    1991-06-01

    The direct Containment Heating (DCH) calculations require that the transient rate at which the melt is ejected from the reactor cavity during hypothetical pressurized melt ejection accident scenarios be calculated. However, at present no models, that are able to predict the available melt dispersal data from small scale reactor cavity models, are available. In this report, a simple idealized model of the melt dispersal process within a reactor cavity during a pressurized melt ejection accident scenario is presented. The predictions from the model agree reasonably well with the integral data obtained from the melt dispersal experiments using a small scale model of the Surry reactor cavity. 17 refs., 15 figs.

  2. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  3. More Young Adults at Risk for High Blood Pressure | NIH MedlinePlus the Magazine

    MedlinePlus

    ... leading to various, serious health problems, ranging from hardening of the arteries, stroke, and brain hemorrhage to ... things, smoking damages blood vessel walls and speeds hardening of the arteries. Ceasing smoking reduces the risk ...

  4. Determination of Extrapolation Distance with Measured Pressure Signatures from Two Low-Boom Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mack, Robert J.; Kuhn, Neil

    2004-01-01

    A study to determine a limiting distance to span ratio for the extrapolation of near-field pressure signatures is described and discussed. This study was to be done in two wind-tunnel facilities with two wind-tunnel models. At this time, only the first half had been completed, so the scope of this report is limited to the design of the models, and to an analysis of the first set of measured pressure signatures. The results from this analysis showed that the pressure signatures measured at separation distances of 2 to 5 span lengths did not show the desired low-boom shapes. However, there were indications that the pressure signature shapes were becoming 'flat-topped'. This trend toward a 'flat-top' pressure signatures shape was seen to be a gradual one at the distance ratios employed in this first series of wind-tunnel tests.

  5. Effectiveness of a pressure-redistributing cushion for low- to medium-risk patients in care homes.

    PubMed

    Mossman, Bernadette; Hampton, Sylvie

    2016-06-01

    A small, non-controlled evaluation set out to assess the effectiveness of the Airospring AS200 cushion in preventing the development of pressure ulcers in patients in nursing/care home and hospice settings. Ten patients, assessed as being at low-to-medium risk of pressure ulceration, were recruited into the evaluation; the mean age was 82.7 years. Of these, nine were living in nursing/care homes and one in a hospice. The follow-up period was 4 weeks for nursing/care home patients and 2 weeks for the hospice patient. Seven patients had a cognitive impairment. All patients were chairfast or had limited mobility. Of the 10 patients, one (from a care home) was withdrawn from the evaluation at week 2 because of a deterioration in her condition, although her skin remained intact. At the end of the follow-up period, the sacral skin was still intact in seven patients out of the nine remaining, but one patient developed persistent signs of blanching erythema. These preliminary results indicate that this pressure-redistributing cushion is largely effective in preventing pressure ulceration. PMID:27297575

  6. C. botulinum inactivation kinetics implemented in a computational model of a high-pressure sterilization process.

    PubMed

    Juliano, Pablo; Knoerzer, Kai; Fryer, Peter J; Versteeg, Cornelis

    2009-01-01

    High-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) processing is effective for microbial spore inactivation using mild preheating, followed by rapid volumetric compression heating and cooling on pressure release, enabling much shorter processing times than conventional thermal processing for many food products. A computational thermal fluid dynamic (CTFD) model has been developed to model all processing steps, including the vertical pressure vessel, an internal polymeric carrier, and food packages in an axis-symmetric geometry. Heat transfer and fluid dynamic equations were coupled to four selected kinetic models for the inactivation of C. botulinum; the traditional first-order kinetic model, the Weibull model, an nth-order model, and a combined discrete log-linear nth-order model. The models were solved to compare the resulting microbial inactivation distributions. The initial temperature of the system was set to 90 degrees C and pressure was selected at 600 MPa, holding for 220 s, with a target temperature of 121 degrees C. A representation of the extent of microbial inactivation throughout all processing steps was obtained for each microbial model. Comparison of the models showed that the conventional thermal processing kinetics (not accounting for pressure) required shorter holding times to achieve a 12D reduction of C. botulinum spores than the other models. The temperature distribution inside the vessel resulted in a more uniform inactivation distribution when using a Weibull or an nth-order kinetics model than when using log-linear kinetics. The CTFD platform could illustrate the inactivation extent and uniformity provided by the microbial models. The platform is expected to be useful to evaluate models fitted into new C. botulinum inactivation data at varying conditions of pressure and temperature, as an aid for regulatory filing of the technology as well as in process and equipment design.

  7. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sridharan, Deepa M.; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R.; Costes, Sylvain V.; Doetsch, Paul W.; Dynan, William S.; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D.; Peterson, Leif E.; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L.; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M.; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M.

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  8. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  9. Evaluating biomarkers to model cancer risk post cosmic ray exposure.

    PubMed

    Sridharan, Deepa M; Asaithamby, Aroumougame; Blattnig, Steve R; Costes, Sylvain V; Doetsch, Paul W; Dynan, William S; Hahnfeldt, Philip; Hlatky, Lynn; Kidane, Yared; Kronenberg, Amy; Naidu, Mamta D; Peterson, Leif E; Plante, Ianik; Ponomarev, Artem L; Saha, Janapriya; Snijders, Antoine M; Srinivasan, Kalayarasan; Tang, Jonathan; Werner, Erica; Pluth, Janice M

    2016-06-01

    Robust predictive models are essential to manage the risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Chronic exposure to cosmic rays in the context of the complex deep space environment may place astronauts at high cancer risk. To estimate this risk, it is critical to understand how radiation-induced cellular stress impacts cell fate decisions and how this in turn alters the risk of carcinogenesis. Exposure to the heavy ion component of cosmic rays triggers a multitude of cellular changes, depending on the rate of exposure, the type of damage incurred and individual susceptibility. Heterogeneity in dose, dose rate, radiation quality, energy and particle flux contribute to the complexity of risk assessment. To unravel the impact of each of these factors, it is critical to identify sensitive biomarkers that can serve as inputs for robust modeling of individual risk of cancer or other long-term health consequences of exposure. Limitations in sensitivity of biomarkers to dose and dose rate, and the complexity of longitudinal monitoring, are some of the factors that increase uncertainties in the output from risk prediction models. Here, we critically evaluate candidate early and late biomarkers of radiation exposure and discuss their usefulness in predicting cell fate decisions. Some of the biomarkers we have reviewed include complex clustered DNA damage, persistent DNA repair foci, reactive oxygen species, chromosome aberrations and inflammation. Other biomarkers discussed, often assayed for at longer points post exposure, include mutations, chromosome aberrations, reactive oxygen species and telomere length changes. We discuss the relationship of biomarkers to different potential cell fates, including proliferation, apoptosis, senescence, and loss of stemness, which can propagate genomic instability and alter tissue composition and the underlying mRNA signatures that contribute to cell fate decisions. Our goal is to highlight factors that are important in choosing

  10. Life modeling of atmospheric and low pressure plasma-sprayed thermal-barrier coating

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, R. A.; Argarwal, P.; Duderstadt, E. C.

    1984-01-01

    The cycles-to-failure vs cycle duration data for three different thermal barrier coating systems, which consist of atmospheric pressure plasma-sprayed ZrO2-8 percent Y2O3 over similarly deposited or low pressure plasma sprayed Ni-base alloys, are presently analyzed by means of the Miller (1980) oxidation-based life model. Specimens were tested at 1100 C for heating cycle lengths of 1, 6, and 20 h, yielding results supporting the model's value.

  11. Motivational barriers to retention of at-risk young adults in HIV-prevention interventions: Perceived pressure and efficacy

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jiaying; Jones, Christopher; Wilson, Kristina; Durantini, Marta R.; Livingood, William; Albarracín, Dolores

    2014-01-01

    Multi-session HIV-prevention interventions are efficacious but depend on the retention of clients over time. In a sample of at-risk young adults (N = 386), we investigated three potential motivational barriers that might affect the likelihood of retention. Perceived pressure, perceived efficacy and fear and anxiety during the initial session were measured, along with demographic characteristics, partner characteristics, and HIV-related health knowledge. Logistic regression demonstrated that (1) in general, perceived ineffectiveness was negatively associated with retention; (2) perceived pressure or coercion was negatively associated with retention, but only for younger clients; (3) experienced fear and anxiety had no significant association with retention. Implications for theory and counseling practices to reduce motivational barriers and effectively tailor interventions are discussed. PMID:24641552

  12. High pressure thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum type E endospores – kinetic modeling and mechanistic insights

    PubMed Central

    Lenz, Christian A.; Reineke, Kai; Knorr, Dietrich; Vogel, Rudi F.

    2015-01-01

    Cold-tolerant, neurotoxigenic, endospore forming Clostridium (C.) botulinum type E belongs to the non-proteolytic physiological C. botulinum group II, is primarily associated with aquatic environments, and presents a safety risk for seafood. High pressure thermal (HPT) processing exploiting the synergistic effect of pressure and temperature can be used to inactivate bacterial endospores. We investigated the inactivation of C. botulinum type E spores by (near) isothermal HPT treatments at 300–1200 MPa at 30–75°C for 1 s to 10 min. The occurrence of heat and lysozyme susceptible spore fractions after such treatments was determined. The experimental data were modeled to obtain kinetic parameters and represented graphically by isoeffect lines. In contrast to findings for spores of other species and within the range of treatment parameters applied, zones of spore stabilization (lower inactivation than heat treatments alone), large heat susceptible (HPT-induced germinated) or lysozyme-dependently germinable (damaged coat layer) spore fractions were not detected. Inactivation followed first order kinetics. Dipicolinic acid release kinetics allowed for insights into possible inactivation mechanisms suggesting a (poorly effective) physiologic-like (similar to nutrient-induced) germination at ≤450 MPa/≤45°C and non-physiological germination at >500 MPa/>60–70°C. Results of this study support the existence of some commonalities in the HPT inactivation mechanism of C. botulinum type E spores and Bacillus spores although both organisms have significantly different HPT resistance properties. The information presented here contributes to closing the gap in knowledge regarding the HPT inactivation of spore formers relevant to food safety and may help industrial implementation of HPT processing. The markedly lower HPT resistance of C. botulinum type E spores compared with the resistance of spores from other C. botulinum types could allow for the implementation of

  13. High pressure thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum type E endospores - kinetic modeling and mechanistic insights.

    PubMed

    Lenz, Christian A; Reineke, Kai; Knorr, Dietrich; Vogel, Rudi F

    2015-01-01

    Cold-tolerant, neurotoxigenic, endospore forming Clostridium (C.) botulinum type E belongs to the non-proteolytic physiological C. botulinum group II, is primarily associated with aquatic environments, and presents a safety risk for seafood. High pressure thermal (HPT) processing exploiting the synergistic effect of pressure and temperature can be used to inactivate bacterial endospores. We investigated the inactivation of C. botulinum type E spores by (near) isothermal HPT treatments at 300-1200 MPa at 30-75°C for 1 s to 10 min. The occurrence of heat and lysozyme susceptible spore fractions after such treatments was determined. The experimental data were modeled to obtain kinetic parameters and represented graphically by isoeffect lines. In contrast to findings for spores of other species and within the range of treatment parameters applied, zones of spore stabilization (lower inactivation than heat treatments alone), large heat susceptible (HPT-induced germinated) or lysozyme-dependently germinable (damaged coat layer) spore fractions were not detected. Inactivation followed first order kinetics. Dipicolinic acid release kinetics allowed for insights into possible inactivation mechanisms suggesting a (poorly effective) physiologic-like (similar to nutrient-induced) germination at ≤450 MPa/≤45°C and non-physiological germination at >500 MPa/>60-70°C. Results of this study support the existence of some commonalities in the HPT inactivation mechanism of C. botulinum type E spores and Bacillus spores although both organisms have significantly different HPT resistance properties. The information presented here contributes to closing the gap in knowledge regarding the HPT inactivation of spore formers relevant to food safety and may help industrial implementation of HPT processing. The markedly lower HPT resistance of C. botulinum type E spores compared with the resistance of spores from other C. botulinum types could allow for the implementation of milder

  14. High pressure thermal inactivation of Clostridium botulinum type E endospores - kinetic modeling and mechanistic insights.

    PubMed

    Lenz, Christian A; Reineke, Kai; Knorr, Dietrich; Vogel, Rudi F

    2015-01-01

    Cold-tolerant, neurotoxigenic, endospore forming Clostridium (C.) botulinum type E belongs to the non-proteolytic physiological C. botulinum group II, is primarily associated with aquatic environments, and presents a safety risk for seafood. High pressure thermal (HPT) processing exploiting the synergistic effect of pressure and temperature can be used to inactivate bacterial endospores. We investigated the inactivation of C. botulinum type E spores by (near) isothermal HPT treatments at 300-1200 MPa at 30-75°C for 1 s to 10 min. The occurrence of heat and lysozyme susceptible spore fractions after such treatments was determined. The experimental data were modeled to obtain kinetic parameters and represented graphically by isoeffect lines. In contrast to findings for spores of other species and within the range of treatment parameters applied, zones of spore stabilization (lower inactivation than heat treatments alone), large heat susceptible (HPT-induced germinated) or lysozyme-dependently germinable (damaged coat layer) spore fractions were not detected. Inactivation followed first order kinetics. Dipicolinic acid release kinetics allowed for insights into possible inactivation mechanisms suggesting a (poorly effective) physiologic-like (similar to nutrient-induced) germination at ≤450 MPa/≤45°C and non-physiological germination at >500 MPa/>60-70°C. Results of this study support the existence of some commonalities in the HPT inactivation mechanism of C. botulinum type E spores and Bacillus spores although both organisms have significantly different HPT resistance properties. The information presented here contributes to closing the gap in knowledge regarding the HPT inactivation of spore formers relevant to food safety and may help industrial implementation of HPT processing. The markedly lower HPT resistance of C. botulinum type E spores compared with the resistance of spores from other C. botulinum types could allow for the implementation of milder

  15. Galileo`s relativity principle, the concept of pressure, and complex characteristics, for the six-equation, one-pressure model

    SciTech Connect

    Makowitz, H.

    1992-10-01

    We have studied various formulations of the concept of pressure, in the context of the usual Six-Equation Model of thermal-hydraulics. A different concept of pressure, than the usual one, has been used. This new pressure concept is Galilean Invariant, and results for the One-Pressure Model with the same complex characteristic roots as the ``Basic III-Posed Model,`` discussed in the literature for the cases we have investigated. We have also examined several Two-Pressure formulations and shown that two pressures are a necessary but not sufficient condition for obtaining a Well-Posed system. Several counter examples are presented. We have shown that the standard theory is not Galilean Invariant and suggested that the origin of III-Posedness is due to our closure relationships. We also question whether the current theory can satisfy conservation principles for mass, energy, and momentum.

  16. Are Masking-Based Models of Risk Useful?

    PubMed

    Gisiner, Robert C

    2016-01-01

    As our understanding of directly observable effects from anthropogenic sound exposure has improved, concern about "unobservable" effects such as stress and masking have received greater attention. Equal energy models of masking such as power spectrum models have the appeal of simplicity, but do they offer biologically realistic assessments of the risk of masking? Data relevant to masking such as critical ratios, critical bandwidths, temporal resolution, and directional resolution along with what is known about general mammalian antimasking mechanisms all argue for a much more complicated view of masking when making decisions about the risk of masking inherent in a given anthropogenic sound exposure scenario. PMID:26610979

  17. A dynamical systems model for nuclear power plant risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hess, Stephen Michael

    The recent transition to an open access generation marketplace has forced nuclear plant operators to become much more cost conscious and focused on plant performance. Coincidentally, the regulatory perspective also is in a state of transition from a command and control framework to one that is risk-informed and performance-based. Due to these structural changes in the economics and regulatory system associated with commercial nuclear power plant operation, there is an increased need for plant management to explicitly manage nuclear safety risk. Application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to model plant hardware has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events and equipment failures that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has supported improved plant operation and safety over the previous decade. However, this analytical approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. Thus, the research described in this dissertation presents a different approach to address this issue. Here we propose a dynamical model that describes the interaction of important plant processes among themselves and their overall impact on nuclear safety risk. We first provide a review of the techniques that are applied in a conventional probabilistic risk assessment of commercially operating nuclear power plants and summarize the typical results obtained. The limitations of the conventional approach and the status of research previously performed to address these limitations also are presented. Next, we present the case for the application of an alternative approach using dynamical systems theory. This includes a discussion of previous applications of dynamical models to study other important socio-economic issues. Next, we review the analytical techniques that are applicable to analysis of

  18. Modelling oxygen self-diffusion in UO2 under pressure

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, Michael William D.; Grimes, R. W.; Fitzpatrick, M. E.; Chroneos, A.

    2015-10-22

    Access to values for oxygen self-diffusion over a range of temperatures and pressures in UO2 is important to nuclear fuel applications. Here, elastic and expansivity data are used in the framework of a thermodynamic model, the cBΩ model, to derive the oxygen self-diffusion coefficient in UO2 over a range of pressures (0–10 GPa) and temperatures (300–1900 K). Furthermore, the significant reduction in oxygen self-diffusion as a function of increasing hydrostatic pressure, and the associated increase in activation energy, is identified.

  19. Evaluation of Progressive Failure Analysis and Modeling of Impact Damage in Composite Pressure Vessels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sanchez, Christopher M.

    2011-01-01

    NASA White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) is leading an evaluation effort in advanced destructive and nondestructive testing of composite pressure vessels and structures. WSTF is using progressive finite element analysis methods for test design and for confirmation of composite pressure vessel performance. Using composite finite element analysis models and failure theories tested in the World-Wide Failure Exercise, WSTF is able to estimate the static strength of composite pressure vessels. Additionally, test and evaluation on composites that have been impact damaged is in progress so that models can be developed to estimate damage tolerance and the degradation in static strength.

  20. Altered disc pressure profile after an osteoporotic vertebral fracture is a risk factor for adjacent vertebral body fracture.

    PubMed

    Tzermiadianos, Michael N; Renner, Susan M; Phillips, Frank M; Hadjipavlou, Alexander G; Zindrick, Michael R; Havey, Robert M; Voronov, Michael; Patwardhan, Avinash G

    2008-11-01

    This study investigated the effect of endplate deformity after an osteoporotic vertebral fracture in increasing the risk for adjacent vertebral fractures. Eight human lower thoracic or thoracolumbar specimens, each consisting of five vertebrae were used. To selectively fracture one of the endplates of the middle VB of each specimen a void was created under the target endplate and the specimen was flexed and compressed until failure. The fractured vertebra was subjected to spinal extension under 150 N preload that restored the anterior wall height and vertebral kyphosis, while the fractured endplate remained significantly depressed. The VB was filled with cement to stabilize the fracture, after complete evacuation of its trabecular content to ensure similar cement distribution under both the endplates. Specimens were tested in flexion-extension under 400 N preload while pressure in the discs and strain at the anterior wall of the adjacent vertebrae were recorded. Disc pressure in the intact specimens increased during flexion by 26 +/- 14%. After cementation, disc pressure increased during flexion by 15 +/- 11% in the discs with un-fractured endplates, while decreased by 19 +/- 26.7% in the discs with the fractured endplates. During flexion, the compressive strain at the anterior wall of the vertebra next to the fractured endplate increased by 94 +/- 23% compared to intact status (p < 0.05), while it did not significantly change at the vertebra next to the un-fractured endplate (18.2 +/- 7.1%, p > 0.05). Subsequent flexion with compression to failure resulted in adjacent fracture close to the fractured endplate in six specimens and in a non-adjacent fracture in one specimen, while one specimen had no adjacent fractures. Depression of the fractured endplate alters the pressure profile of the damaged disc resulting in increased compressive loading of the anterior wall of adjacent vertebra that predisposes it to wedge fracture. This data suggests that correction of

  1. Blood Pressure Control in Hypertensive Patients, Cardiovascular Risk Profile and the Prevalence of Masked Uncontrolled Hypertension (MUCH)

    PubMed Central

    Naser, Nabil; Dzubur, Alen; Durak, Azra; Kulic, Mehmed; Naser, Nura

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The term masked hypertension (MH) should be used for untreated individuals who have normal office blood pressure but elevated ambulatory blood pressure. For treated patients, this condition should be termed masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH). Research Objectives: Masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) has gone unrecognized because few studies have used 24-h ABPM to determine the prevalence of suboptimal BP control in seemingly well-treated patients, and there are few such studies in large cohorts of treated patients attending usual clinical practice. This is important because masked hypertension is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. This study was conducted to obtain more information about the association between hypertension and other CV risk factors, about office and ambulatory blood pressure (BP) control as well as on cardiovascular (CV) risk profile in treated hypertensive patients, also to define the prevalence and characteristics of masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) among treated hypertensive patients in routine clinical practice. Patients and methods: In this study 2514 male and female patients were included during a period of 5 years follow up. All patients have ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for at least 24h. We identified patients with treated and controlled BP according to current international guidelines (clinic BP, 140/90mmHg). Cardiovascular risk assessment was based on personal history, clinic BP values, as well as target organ damage evaluation. Masked uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH) was diagnosed in these patients if despite controlled clinic BP, the mean 24-h ABPM average remained elevated (24-h systolic BP ≥130mmHg and/or 24-h diastolic BP ≥80mmHg). Results: Patients had a mean age of 60.2+10 years, and the majority of them (94.6%) were followed by specialist physicians. Average clinic BP was 150.4+16/89.9+12 mmHg. About 70% of patients displayed a very high-risk profile. Ambulatory

  2. Analysis of Radiation Pneumonitis Risk Using a Generalized Lyman Model

    SciTech Connect

    Tucker, Susan L. Liu, H. Helen; Liao Zhongxing; Wei Xiong; Wang Shulian; Jin Hekun; Komaki, Ritsuko; Martel, Mary K.; Mohan, Radhe

    2008-10-01

    Purpose: To introduce a version of the Lyman normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) model adapted to incorporate censored time-to-toxicity data and clinical risk factors and to apply the generalized model to analysis of radiation pneumonitis (RP) risk. Methods and Materials: Medical records and radiation treatment plans were reviewed retrospectively for 576 patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy. The time to severe (Grade {>=}3) RP was computed, with event times censored at last follow-up for patients not experiencing this endpoint. The censored time-to-toxicity data were analyzed using the standard and generalized Lyman models with patient smoking status taken into account. Results: The generalized Lyman model with patient smoking status taken into account produced NTCP estimates up to 27 percentage points different from the model based on dose-volume factors alone. The generalized model also predicted that 8% of the expected cases of severe RP were unobserved because of censoring. The estimated volume parameter for lung was not significantly different from n = 1, corresponding to mean lung dose. Conclusions: NTCP models historically have been based solely on dose-volume effects and binary (yes/no) toxicity data. Our results demonstrate that inclusion of nondosimetric risk factors and censored time-to-event data can markedly affect outcome predictions made using NTCP models.

  3. Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

  4. A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

    2010-01-01

    The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

  5. Gambler Risk Perception: A Mental Model and Grounded Theory Analysis.

    PubMed

    Spurrier, Michael; Blaszczynski, Alexander; Rhodes, Paul

    2015-09-01

    Few studies have investigated how gamblers perceive risk or the role of risk perception in disordered gambling. The purpose of the current study therefore was to obtain data on lay gamblers' beliefs on these variables and their effects on decision-making, behaviour, and disordered gambling aetiology. Fifteen regular lay gamblers (non-problem/low risk, moderate risk and problem gamblers) completed a semi-structured interview following mental models and grounded theory methodologies. Gambler interview data was compared to an expert 'map' of risk-perception, to identify comparative gaps or differences associated with harmful or safe gambling. Systematic overlapping processes of data gathering and analysis were used to iteratively extend, saturate, test for exception, and verify concepts and themes emerging from the data. The preliminary findings suggested that gambler accounts supported the presence of expert conceptual constructs, and to some degree the role of risk perception in protecting against or increasing vulnerability to harm and disordered gambling. Gambler accounts of causality, meaning, motivation, and strategy were highly idiosyncratic, and often contained content inconsistent with measures of disordered gambling. Disordered gambling appears heavily influenced by relative underestimation of risk and overvaluation of gambling, based on explicit and implicit analysis, and deliberate, innate, contextual, and learned processing evaluations and biases. PMID:24402720