Bayesian Estimation of the True Prevalence and of the Diagnostic Test Sensitivity and Specificity of Enteropathogenic Yersinia in Finnish Pig Serum Samples.

PubMed

Vilar, M J; Ranta, J; Virtanen, S; Korkeala, H

2015-01-01

Bayesian analysis was used to estimate the pig's and herd's true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia in serum samples collected from Finnish pig farms. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test were also estimated for the commercially available ELISA which is used for antibody detection against enteropathogenic Yersinia. The Bayesian analysis was performed in two steps; the first step estimated the prior true prevalence of enteropathogenic Yersinia with data obtained from a systematic review of the literature. In the second step, data of the apparent prevalence (cross-sectional study data), prior true prevalence (first step), and estimated sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods were used for building the Bayesian model. The true prevalence of Yersinia in slaughter-age pigs was 67.5% (95% PI 63.2-70.9). The true prevalence of Yersinia in sows was 74.0% (95% PI 57.3-82.4). The estimates of sensitivity and specificity values of the ELISA were 79.5% and 96.9%.

Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

PubMed Central

Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

2015-01-01

Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

Appropriateness of the probability approach with a nutrient status biomarker to assess population inadequacy: a study using vitamin D123

PubMed Central

Carriquiry, Alicia L; Bailey, Regan L; Sempos, Christopher T; Yetley, Elizabeth A

2013-01-01

Background: There are questions about the appropriate method for the accurate estimation of the population prevalence of nutrient inadequacy on the basis of a biomarker of nutrient status (BNS). Objective: We determined the applicability of a statistical probability method to a BNS, specifically serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]. The ability to meet required statistical assumptions was the central focus. Design: Data on serum 25(OH)D concentrations in adults aged 19–70 y from the 2005–2006 NHANES were used (n = 3871). An Institute of Medicine report provided reference values. We analyzed key assumptions of symmetry, differences in variance, and the independence of distributions. We also corrected observed distributions for within-person variability (WPV). Estimates of vitamin D inadequacy were determined. Results: We showed that the BNS [serum 25(OH)D] met the criteria to use the method for the estimation of the prevalence of inadequacy. The difference between observations corrected compared with uncorrected for WPV was small for serum 25(OH)D but, nonetheless, showed enhanced accuracy because of correction. The method estimated a 19% prevalence of inadequacy in this sample, whereas misclassification inherent in the use of the more traditional 97.5th percentile high-end cutoff inflated the prevalence of inadequacy (36%). Conclusions: When the prevalence of nutrient inadequacy for a population is estimated by using serum 25(OH)D as an example of a BNS, a statistical probability method is appropriate and more accurate in comparison with a high-end cutoff. Contrary to a common misunderstanding, the method does not overlook segments of the population. The accuracy of population estimates of inadequacy is enhanced by the correction of observed measures for WPV. PMID:23097269

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

Assessing and adjusting for differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population-based surveys and antenatal care surveillance, with applications for Spectrum 2013

PubMed Central

Marsh, Kimberly; Mahy, Mary; Salomon, Joshua A.; Hogan, Daniel R.

2014-01-01

Objective(s): To assess differences between HIV prevalence estimates derived from national population surveys and antenatal care (ANC) surveillance sites and to improve the calibration of ANC-derived estimates in Spectrum 2013 to more appropriately account for differences between these data. Design: Retrospective analysis of national population survey and ANC surveillance data from 25 countries with generalized epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa and 8 countries with concentrated epidemics. Methods: Adult national population survey and ANC surveillance HIV prevalence estimates were compared for all available national population survey data points for the years 1999–2012. For sub-Saharan Africa, a mixed-effects linear regression model determined whether the relationship between national population and ANC estimates was constant across surveys. A new calibration method was developed to incorporate national population survey data directly into the likelihood for HIV prevalence in countries with generalized epidemics. Results were used to develop default rules for adjusting ANC data for countries with no national population surveys. Results: ANC surveillance data typically overestimate population prevalence, although a wide variation, particularly in rural areas, is observed across countries and survey years. The new calibration method yields similar point estimates to previous approaches, but leads to an average 44% increase in the width of 95% uncertainty intervals. Conclusion: Important biases remain in ANC surveillance data for HIV prevalence. The new approach to model-fitting in Spectrum 2013 more appropriately accounts for this bias when producing national estimates in countries with generalized epidemics. In countries with concentrated epidemics, local sex ratios should be used to calibrate ANC surveillance estimates. PMID:25203158

Combination of five diagnostic tests to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection among school-aged children from a rural area of colombia.

PubMed

Barreto, Rafael E; Narváez, Javier; Sepúlveda, Natalia A; Velásquez, Fabián C; Díaz, Sandra C; López, Myriam Consuelo; Reyes, Patricia; Moncada, Ligia I

2017-09-01

Public health programs for the control of soil-transmitted helminthiases require valid diagnostic tests for surveillance and parasitic control evaluation. However, there is currently no agreement about what test should be used as a gold standard for the diagnosis of hookworm infection. Still, in presence of concurrent data for multiple tests it is possible to use statistical models to estimate measures of test performance and prevalence. The aim of this study was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of five parallel tests (direct microscopic examination, Kato-Katz, Harada-Mori, modified Ritchie-Frick, and culture in agar plate) to detect hookworm infections in a sample of school-aged children from a rural area in Colombia. We used both, a frequentist approach, and Bayesian latent class models to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of five tests for hookworm detection, and to estimate the prevalence of hookworm infection in absence of a Gold Standard. The Kato-Katz and agar plate methods had an overall agreement of 95% and kappa coefficient of 0.76. Different models estimated a sensitivity between 76% and 92% for the agar plate technique, and 52% to 87% for the Kato-Katz technique. The other tests had lower sensitivity. All tests had specificity between 95% and 98%. The prevalence estimated by the Kato-Katz and Agar plate methods for different subpopulations varied between 10% and 14%, and was consistent with the prevalence estimated from the combination of all tests. The Harada-Mori, Ritchie-Frick and direct examination techniques resulted in lower and disparate prevalence estimates. Bayesian approaches assuming imperfect specificity resulted in lower prevalence estimates than the frequentist approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urbanization and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Southern Asia: A systematic analysis

PubMed Central

Cheema, Arsalan; Adeloye, Davies; Sidhu, Simrita; Sridhar, Devi; Chan, Kit Yee

2014-01-01

Background Diabetes mellitus is one of the diseases considered to be the main constituents of the global non–communicable disease (NCD) pandemic. Despite the large impact that NCDs are predicted to have, particularly in developing countries, estimates of disease burden are sparse and inconsistent. This systematic review transparently estimates prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Southern Asia, its association with urbanization and provides insight into the policy challenges facing the region. Methods The databases Medline and PubMed were searched for population–based studies providing estimates of diabetes prevalence in the Southern Asia region. Studies using WHO diagnostic criteria of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0mmol/L and/or 2h–plasma glucose (2hPG) ≥11.1mmol/L were included. Data from eligible studies was extracted into bubble graphs, and trend lines were applied to UNPD figures to estimate age–specific prevalence in the regional population. Estimates specific to sex, area of residency, and diagnostic method were compared and trends analysed. Results A total of 151 age–specific prevalence estimates were extracted from 39 studies. Diabetes prevalence was estimated to be 7.47% for 2005 and 7.60% for 2010. Prevalence was strongly associated with increased age, male gender and urban residency (P < 0.001). Conclusion Diabetes prevalence in Southern Asia is high and predicted to increase in the future as life expectancy rises and the region continues to urbanise. Countries in this region need to improve NCD surveillance and monitoring so policies can be informed with the best evidence. Programs for prevention need to be put in place, and health system capacity and access needs to be assessed and increased to deal with the predicted rise in NCD prevalence. PMID:24976963

Self-Reported and Network Scale-Up Estimates of Substance Use Prevalence among University Students in Kerman, Iran.

PubMed

Zahedi, Razieh; Noroozi, Alireza; Hajebi, Ahmad; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Sharifi, Hamid; Mirzazadeh, Ali

2018-04-30

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of substance use among university students measured by direct and indirect methods, and to calculate the visibility factor (VF) defined as ratio of indirect to direct estimates of substance use prevalence. A cross-sectional study. Using a multistage non-random sampling approach, we recruited 2157 students from three universities in Kerman, Iran, in 2016. We collected data on substance use by individual face-to-face interview using direct (i.e. self-report of their own behaviors) and indirect (NSU: Network scale up) methods. All estimates from direct and indirect methods were weighted based on inverse probability weight of sampling university. The response rate was 83.6%. The last year prevalence of water pipe, alcohol, and cigarettes indirect method was 44.6%, 18.1%, and 13.2% respectively. Corresponding figures in NSU analysis were 36.4%, 18.2%, and 16.5% respectively. In the female population, VF for all types of substance was less than male. Considerable numbers of university students used substances like a water pipe, alcohol, and cigarettes. NSU seems a promising method, especially among male students. Among female students, direct method provided more reliable results mainly due to transmission and prestige biases.

Counting the stunted children in a population: a criticism of old and new approaches and a conciliatory proposal.

PubMed

Monteiro, C A

1991-01-01

Two methods for estimating the prevalence of growth retardation in a population are evaluated: the classical method, which is based on the proportion of children whose height is more than 2 standard deviations below the expected mean of a reference population; and a new method recently proposed by Mora, which is based on the whole height distribution of observed and reference populations. Application of the classical method to several simulated populations leads to the conclusion that in most situations in developing countries the prevalence of growth retardation is grossly underestimated, and reflects only the presence of severe growth deficits. A second constraint with this method is a marked reduction of the relative differentials between more and less exposed strata. Application of Mora's method to the same simulated populations reduced but did not eliminate these constraints. A novel method for estimating the prevalence of growth retardation, which is based also on the whole height distribution of observed and reference populations, is also described and evaluated. This method produces better estimates of the true prevalence of growth retardation with no reduction in relative differentials.

Prevalence Estimation and Validation of New Instruments in Psychiatric Research: An Application of Latent Class Analysis and Sensitivity Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pence, Brian Wells; Miller, William C.; Gaynes, Bradley N.

2009-01-01

Prevalence and validation studies rely on imperfect reference standard (RS) diagnostic instruments that can bias prevalence and test characteristic estimates. The authors illustrate 2 methods to account for RS misclassification. Latent class analysis (LCA) combines information from multiple imperfect measures of an unmeasurable latent condition to…

Accounting for nonsampling error in estimates of HIV epidemic trends from antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance

PubMed Central

Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Bao, Le

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of the study was to propose and demonstrate an approach to allow additional nonsampling uncertainty about HIV prevalence measured at antenatal clinic sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) in model-based inferences about trends in HIV incidence and prevalence. Design Mathematical model fitted to surveillance data with Bayesian inference. Methods We introduce a variance inflation parameter σinfl2 that accounts for the uncertainty of nonsampling errors in ANC-SS prevalence. It is additive to the sampling error variance. Three approaches are tested for estimating σinfl2 using ANC-SS and household survey data from 40 subnational regions in nine countries in sub-Saharan, as defined in UNAIDS 2016 estimates. Methods were compared using in-sample fit and out-of-sample prediction of ANC-SS data, fit to household survey prevalence data, and the computational implications. Results Introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2 increased the error variance around ANC-SS prevalence observations by a median of 2.7 times (interquartile range 1.9–3.8). Using only sampling error in ANC-SS prevalence ( σinfl2=0), coverage of 95% prediction intervals was 69% in out-of-sample prediction tests. This increased to 90% after introducing the additional variance parameter σinfl2. The revised probabilistic model improved model fit to household survey prevalence and increased epidemic uncertainty intervals most during the early epidemic period before 2005. Estimating σinfl2 did not increase the computational cost of model fitting. Conclusions: We recommend estimating nonsampling error in ANC-SS as an additional parameter in Bayesian inference using the Estimation and Projection Package model. This approach may prove useful for incorporating other data sources such as routine prevalence from Prevention of mother-to-child transmission testing into future epidemic estimates. PMID:28296801

True versus Apparent Malaria Infection Prevalence: The Contribution of a Bayesian Approach

PubMed Central

Claes, Filip; Van Hong, Nguyen; Torres, Kathy; Mao, Sokny; Van den Eede, Peter; Thi Thinh, Ta; Gamboa, Dioni; Sochantha, Tho; Thang, Ngo Duc; Coosemans, Marc; Büscher, Philippe; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Berkvens, Dirk; Erhart, Annette

2011-01-01

Aims To present a new approach for estimating the “true prevalence” of malaria and apply it to datasets from Peru, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Methods Bayesian models were developed for estimating both the malaria prevalence using different diagnostic tests (microscopy, PCR & ELISA), without the need of a gold standard, and the tests' characteristics. Several sources of information, i.e. data, expert opinions and other sources of knowledge can be integrated into the model. This approach resulting in an optimal and harmonized estimate of malaria infection prevalence, with no conflict between the different sources of information, was tested on data from Peru, Vietnam and Cambodia. Results Malaria sero-prevalence was relatively low in all sites, with ELISA showing the highest estimates. The sensitivity of microscopy and ELISA were statistically lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. Similarly, the specificities of microscopy, ELISA and PCR were significantly lower in Vietnam than in the other sites. In Vietnam and Peru, microscopy was closer to the “true” estimate than the other 2 tests while as expected ELISA, with its lower specificity, usually overestimated the prevalence. Conclusions Bayesian methods are useful for analyzing prevalence results when no gold standard diagnostic test is available. Though some results are expected, e.g. PCR more sensitive than microscopy, a standardized and context-independent quantification of the diagnostic tests' characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) and the underlying malaria prevalence may be useful for comparing different sites. Indeed, the use of a single diagnostic technique could strongly bias the prevalence estimation. This limitation can be circumvented by using a Bayesian framework taking into account the imperfect characteristics of the currently available diagnostic tests. As discussed in the paper, this approach may further support global malaria burden estimation initiatives. PMID:21364745

Comparison of type 2 diabetes prevalence estimates in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against the International Diabetes Federation and other modelling studies

PubMed Central

Al-Quwaidhi, Abdulkareem J.; Pearce, Mark S.; Sobngwi, Eugene; Critchley, Julia A.; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Aims To compare the estimates and projections of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Saudi Arabia from a validated Markov model against other modelling estimates, such as those produced by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Diabetes Atlas and the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) project. Methods A discrete-state Markov model was developed and validated that integrates data on population, obesity and smoking prevalence trends in adult Saudis aged ≥25 years to estimate the trends in T2DM prevalence (annually from 1992 to 2022). The model was validated by comparing the age- and sex-specific prevalence estimates against a national survey conducted in 2005. Results Prevalence estimates from this new Markov model were consistent with the 2005 national survey and very similar to the GBD study estimates. Prevalence in men and women in 2000 was estimated by the GBD model respectively at 17.5% and 17.7%, compared to 17.7% and 16.4% in this study. The IDF estimates of the total diabetes prevalence were considerably lower at 16.7% in 2011 and 20.8% in 2030, compared with 29.2% in 2011 and 44.1% in 2022 in this study. Conclusion In contrast to other modelling studies, both the Saudi IMPACT Diabetes Forecast Model and the GBD model directly incorporated the trends in obesity prevalence and/or body mass index (BMI) to inform T2DM prevalence estimates. It appears that such a direct incorporation of obesity trends in modelling studies results in higher estimates of the future prevalence of T2DM, at least in countries where obesity has been rapidly increasing. PMID:24447810

Population prevalence and distribution of ankle pain and symptomatic radiographic ankle osteoarthritis in community dwelling older adults: A systematic review and cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Murray, Charlotte; Rathod, Trishna; Bowen, Catherine J.; Menz, Hylton B.; Roddy, Edward

2018-01-01

Objectives To identify by systematic review published prevalence estimates of radiographic ankle osteoarthritis (OA) and to subsequently estimate the prevalence of ankle pain and symptomatic, radiographic ankle OA within community-dwelling older adults from North Staffordshire, UK. Methods Electronic databases were searched using terms for ankle, osteoarthritis and radiography. Data regarding population, radiographic methods, definitions and prevalence estimates of ankle OA were extracted from papers meeting predetermined selection criteria. Adults aged ≥50 years and registered with four general practices in North Staffordshire were mailed a health questionnaire. Ankle pain in the previous month was determined using a foot and ankle pain manikin. Respondents reporting pain in or around the foot in the last 12 months were invited to attend a research clinic where weight-bearing, antero-posterior and lateral ankle radiographs were obtained and scored for OA using a standardised atlas. Prevalence estimates for ankle pain and symptomatic, radiographic ankle OA were calculated using multiple imputation and weighted logistic regression, and stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status. Results Eighteen studies were included in the systematic review. The methods of radiographic classification of ankle OA were poorly reported and showed heterogeneity. No true general population prevalence estimates of radiographic ankle OA were found, estimates in select sporting and medical community-dwelling populations ranged from 0.0–97.1%. 5109 participants responded to the health survey questionnaire (adjusted response 56%). Radiographs were obtained in 557 participants. The prevalence of ankle pain was 11.7% (10.8,12.6) and symptomatic, radiographic ankle OA grade≥2 was 3.4% (2.3, 4.5) (grade≥1: 8.8% (7.9,9.8); grade = 3: 1.9% (1.0,2.7). Prevalence was higher in females, younger adults (50–64 years) and those with routine/manual occupations. Conclusion No general population prevalence estimates of radiographic ankle OA were identified in the published literature. Our prevalence study found that ankle pain was common in community-dwelling older adults, whereas moderate to severe symptomatic, radiographic ankle OA occurred less frequently. Further investigations of the prevalence of ankle OA using more sensitive imaging modalities are warranted. PMID:29708977

Validation of Diagnostic Groups Based on Health Care Utilization Data Should Adjust for Sampling Strategy.

PubMed

Cadieux, Geneviève; Tamblyn, Robyn; Buckeridge, David L; Dendukuri, Nandini

2017-08-01

Valid measurement of outcomes such as disease prevalence using health care utilization data is fundamental to the implementation of a "learning health system." Definitions of such outcomes can be complex, based on multiple diagnostic codes. The literature on validating such data demonstrates a lack of awareness of the need for a stratified sampling design and corresponding statistical methods. We propose a method for validating the measurement of diagnostic groups that have: (1) different prevalences of diagnostic codes within the group; and (2) low prevalence. We describe an estimation method whereby: (1) low-prevalence diagnostic codes are oversampled, and the positive predictive value (PPV) of the diagnostic group is estimated as a weighted average of the PPV of each diagnostic code; and (2) claims that fall within a low-prevalence diagnostic group are oversampled relative to claims that are not, and bias-adjusted estimators of sensitivity and specificity are generated. We illustrate our proposed method using an example from population health surveillance in which diagnostic groups are applied to physician claims to identify cases of acute respiratory illness. Failure to account for the prevalence of each diagnostic code within a diagnostic group leads to the underestimation of the PPV, because low-prevalence diagnostic codes are more likely to be false positives. Failure to adjust for oversampling of claims that fall within the low-prevalence diagnostic group relative to those that do not leads to the overestimation of sensitivity and underestimation of specificity.

Prevalence of autism in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The prevalence of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) is 1% in developed countries, but little data are available from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. This study synthesizes evidence relating to the prevalence of ASC in these areas and assesses the effects of research methodology on prevalence estimates. Methods Systematic literature searches were conducted in PubMed, Web of Knowledge, China Web of Knowledge and Weipu databases, as well as relevant papers published from 1987 to 2011, reporting prevalence estimates of ASC or childhood autism in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. Summary estimates of prevalence were calculated with a random effects model. The effects of research methodology on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. Results There were 25 studies eligible for review, 18 of which were suitable for inclusion in a meta-analysis. Pooled prevalence of childhood autism was 11.8 per 10,000 individuals (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.2, 15.3) in mainland China. Pooled prevalence of ASC was 26.6 per 10,000 (95% CI: 18.5, 34.6) in three areas. Substantial heterogeneity was identified between studies (I2>75%). The prevalence estimate of childhood autism was most strongly associated with the choice of screening instrument. After adjustment for age group, the odds ratio for prevalence estimates when using the Autism Behavior Checklist (ABC) as the screening instrument compared with those using the Clancy Autism Behavior Scale (CABS) was 0.29 (95% CI: 0.12, 0.69), and 1.79 (95% CI: 0.70, 4.55; P= 0.20) when using the Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (CHAT) compared to the CABS. Conclusions The available studies investigating the prevalence of ASC in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan have focused mainly on childhood autism rather than the whole spectrum. The prevalence estimates are lower than estimates from developed countries. Studies using more recently developed screening instruments reported higher prevalence than older ones. However, available studies have methodological weaknesses and therefore these results lack comparability with those from developed countries. Our findings indicate a potential under-diagnosis and under-detection of ASC in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, and a need to adopt more advanced methods for research of ASC in these areas. PMID:23570419

Annual research review: A meta-analysis of the worldwide prevalence of mental disorders in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Polanczyk, Guilherme V; Salum, Giovanni A; Sugaya, Luisa S; Caye, Arthur; Rohde, Luis A

2015-03-01

The literature on the prevalence of mental disorders affecting children and adolescents has expanded significantly over the last three decades around the world. Despite the field having matured significantly, there has been no meta-analysis to calculate a worldwide-pooled prevalence and to empirically assess the sources of heterogeneity of estimates. We conducted a systematic review of the literature searching in PubMed, PsycINFO, and EMBASE for prevalence studies of mental disorders investigating probabilistic community samples of children and adolescents with standardized assessments methods that derive diagnoses according to the DSM or ICD. Meta-analytical techniques were used to estimate the prevalence rates of any mental disorder and individual diagnostic groups. A meta-regression analysis was performed to estimate the effect of population and sample characteristics, study methods, assessment procedures, and case definition in determining the heterogeneity of estimates. We included 41 studies conducted in 27 countries from every world region. The worldwide-pooled prevalence of mental disorders was 13.4% (CI 95% 11.3-15.9). The worldwide prevalence of any anxiety disorder was 6.5% (CI 95% 4.7-9.1), any depressive disorder was 2.6% (CI 95% 1.7-3.9), attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder was 3.4% (CI 95% 2.6-4.5), and any disruptive disorder was 5.7% (CI 95% 4.0-8.1). Significant heterogeneity was detected for all pooled estimates. The multivariate metaregression analyses indicated that sample representativeness, sample frame, and diagnostic interview were significant moderators of prevalence estimates. Estimates did not vary as a function of geographic location of studies and year of data collection. The multivariate model explained 88.89% of prevalence heterogeneity, but residual heterogeneity was still significant. Additional meta-analysis detected significant pooled difference in prevalence rates according to requirement of funcional impairment for the diagnosis of mental disorders. Our findings suggest that mental disorders affect a significant number of children and adolescents worldwide. The pooled prevalence estimates and the identification of sources of heterogeneity have important implications to service, training, and research planning around the world. © 2015 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Estimating disease prevalence in two-phase studies.

PubMed

Alonzo, Todd A; Pepe, Margaret Sullivan; Lumley, Thomas

2003-04-01

Disease prevalence is ideally estimated using a 'gold standard' to ascertain true disease status on all subjects in a population of interest. In practice, however, the gold standard may be too costly or invasive to be applied to all subjects, in which case a two-phase design is often employed. Phase 1 data consisting of inexpensive and non-invasive screening tests on all study subjects are used to determine the subjects that receive the gold standard in the second phase. Naive estimates of prevalence in two-phase studies can be biased (verification bias). Imputation and re-weighting estimators are often used to avoid this bias. We contrast the forms and attributes of the various prevalence estimators. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to investigate their bias and efficiency. We conclude that the semiparametric efficient approach is the preferred method for prevalence estimation in two-phase studies. It is more robust and comparable in its efficiency to imputation and other re-weighting estimators. It is also easy to implement. We use this approach to examine the prevalence of depression in adolescents with data from the Great Smoky Mountain Study.

A meta-analysis of the worldwide prevalence of pica during pregnancy and the postpartum period.

PubMed

Fawcett, Emily J; Fawcett, Jonathan M; Mazmanian, Dwight

2016-06-01

Although pica has long been associated with pregnancy, the exact prevalence in this population remains unknown. To estimate the prevalence of pica during pregnancy and the postpartum period, and to explain variations in prevalence estimates by examining potential moderating variables. PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Google Scholar were searched from inception to February 2014 using the keywords pica, prevalence, and epidemiology. Articles estimating pica prevalence during pregnancy and/or the postpartum period using a self-report questionnaire or interview were included. Study characteristics, pica prevalence, and eight potential moderating variables were recorded (parity, anemia, duration of pregnancy, mean maternal age, education, sampling method employed, region, and publication date). Random-effects models were employed. In total, 70 studies were included, producing an aggregate prevalence estimate of 27.8% (95% confidence interval 22.8-33.3). In light of substantial heterogeneity within the study model, the primary focus was identifying moderator variables. Pica prevalence was higher in Africa compared with elsewhere in the world, increased as the prevalence of anemia increased, and decreased as educational attainment increased. Geographical region, anemia, and education were found to moderate pica prevalence, partially explaining the heterogeneity in prevalence estimates across the literature. Copyright © 2016 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime Prevalence of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder in Two American Indian Reservation Populations

PubMed Central

Beals, Janette; Manson, Spero M.; Croy, Calvin; Klein, Suzell A.; Whitesell, Nancy Rumbaugh; Mitchell, Christina M.

2015-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been found to be more common among American Indian populations than among other Americans. A complex diagnosis, the assessment methods for PTSD have varied across epidemiological studies, especially in terms of the trauma criteria. Here, we examined data from the American Indian Service Utilization, Psychiatric Epidemiology, Risk and Protective Factors Project (AI-SUPERPFP) to estimate the lifetime prevalence of PTSD in two culturally distinct American Indian reservation communities, using two formulas for calculating PTSD prevalence. The AI-SUPERPFP was a cross-sectional probability sample survey conducted between 1997 and 2000. Southwest (n = 1,446) and Northern Plains (n = 1,638) tribal members living on or near their reservations, aged 15–57 years at time of interview, were randomly sampled from tribal rolls. PTSD estimates were derived based on both the single worst and 3 worst traumas. Prevalence estimates varied by ascertainment method: single worst trauma (lifetime: 5.9% to 14.8%) versus 3 worst traumas (lifetime, 8.9% to 19.5%). Use of the 3-worst-event approach increased prevalence by 28.3% over the single-event method. PTSD was prevalent in these tribal communities. These results also serve to underscore the need to better understand the implications for PTSD prevalence with the current focus on a single worst event. PMID:23900893

Global Epidemiology of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: a Systematic Review of the Published Literature

PubMed Central

Chiò, A; Logroscino, G; Traynor, BJ; Collins, J; Simeone, JC; Goldstein, LA; White, LA

2014-01-01

Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, yet the economic and social burden is substantial. Having accurate incidence and prevalence estimates would facilitate efficient allocation of healthcare resources. Objective To provide a comprehensive and critical review of the epidemiologic literature on ALS. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE (1995–2011) databases of population-based studies on ALS incidence and prevalence reporting quantitative data were analyzed. Data extracted included study location and time, design and data sources, case ascertainment methods, and incidence and/or prevalence rates. Medians and inter-quartile ranges (IQRs) were calculated, and ALS case estimates derived using 2010 population estimates. Results In all, 37 articles met inclusion criteria. In Europe, the median (IQR) incidence rate (/100,000 population) was 2.08 (1.47–2.43), corresponding to an estimated 15,355 (10,852–17,938) cases. Median (IQR) prevalence (/100,000 population) was 5.40 (4.06–7.89), or 39,863 (29,971–58,244) prevalent cases. Conclusions Disparity in rates among ALS incidence and prevalence studies may be due to differences in study design or true variations in population demographics, such as age, and geography, including environmental factors and genetic predisposition. Additional large-scale studies that use standardized case ascertainment methods are needed to more accurately assess the true global burden of ALS. PMID:23860588

Innovative Recruitment Using Online Networks: Lessons Learned From an Online Study of Alcohol and Other Drug Use Utilizing a Web-Based, Respondent-Driven Sampling (webRDS) Strategy

PubMed Central

Bauermeister, José A.; Zimmerman, Marc A.; Johns, Michelle M.; Glowacki, Pietreck; Stoddard, Sarah; Volz, Erik

2012-01-01

Objective: We used a web version of Respondent-Driven Sampling (webRDS) to recruit a sample of young adults (ages 18–24) and examined whether this strategy would result in alcohol and other drug (AOD) prevalence estimates comparable to national estimates (National Survey on Drug Use and Health [NSDUH]). Method: We recruited 22 initial participants (seeds) via Facebook to complete a web survey examining AOD risk correlates. Sequential, incentivized recruitment continued until our desired sample size was achieved. After correcting for webRDS clustering effects, we contrasted our AOD prevalence estimates (past 30 days) to NSDUH estimates by comparing the 95% confidence intervals of prevalence estimates. Results: We found comparable AOD prevalence estimates between our sample and NSDUH for the past 30 days for alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, Ecstasy (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, or MDMA), and hallucinogens. Cigarette use was lower than NSDUH estimates. Conclusions: WebRDS may be a suitable strategy to recruit young adults online. We discuss the unique strengths and challenges that may be encountered by public health researchers using webRDS methods. PMID:22846248

Self-rated health: small area large area comparisons amongst older adults at the state, district and sub-district level in India.

PubMed

Hirve, Siddhivinayak; Vounatsou, Penelope; Juvekar, Sanjay; Blomstedt, Yulia; Wall, Stig; Chatterji, Somnath; Ng, Nawi

2014-03-01

We compared prevalence estimates of self-rated health (SRH) derived indirectly using four different small area estimation methods for the Vadu (small) area from the national Study on Global AGEing (SAGE) survey with estimates derived directly from the Vadu SAGE survey. The indirect synthetic estimate for Vadu was 24% whereas the model based estimates were 45.6% and 45.7% with smaller prediction errors and comparable to the direct survey estimate of 50%. The model based techniques were better suited to estimate the prevalence of SRH than the indirect synthetic method. We conclude that a simplified mixed effects regression model can produce valid small area estimates of SRH. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Identifying Regional Variation in the Prevalence of Postpartum Haemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Calvert, Clara; Thomas, Sara L.; Ronsmans, Carine; Wagner, Karen S.; Adler, Alma J.; Filippi, Veronique

2012-01-01

Objective To provide regional estimates of the prevalence of maternal haemorrhage and explore the effect of methodological differences between studies on any observed regional variation. Methods We conducted a systematic review of the prevalence of maternal haemorrhage, defined as blood loss greater than or equal to 1) 500 ml or 2) 1000 ml in the antepartum, intrapartum or postpartum period. We obtained regional estimates of the prevalence of maternal and severe maternal haemorrhage by conducting meta-analyses and used meta-regression to explore potential sources of between-study heterogeneity. Findings No studies reported the prevalence of antepartum haemorrhage (APH) according to our definitions. The prevalence of postpartum haemorrhage (PPH) (blood loss ≥500 ml) ranged from 7.2% in Oceania to 25.7% in Africa. The prevalence of severe PPH (blood loss ≥1000 ml) was highest in Africa at 5.1% and lowest in Asia at 1.9%. There was strong evidence of between-study heterogeneity in the prevalence of PPH and severe PPH in most regions. Meta-regression analyses suggested that region and method of measurement of blood loss influenced prevalence estimates for both PPH and severe PPH. The regional patterns changed after adjusting for the other predictors of PPH indicating that, compared with European women, Asian women have a lower prevalence of PPH. Conclusions We found evidence that Asian women have a very low prevalence of PPH compared with women in Europe. However, more reliable estimates will only be obtained with the standardisation of the measurement of PPH so that the data from different regions are comparable. PMID:22844432

A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C.; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G. Machell

2016-01-01

Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

The effect of participant nonresponse on HIV prevalence estimates in a population-based survey in two informal settlements in Nairobi city

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Participant nonresponse in an HIV serosurvey can affect estimates of HIV prevalence. Nonresponse can arise from a participant's refusal to provide a blood sample or the failure to trace a sampled individual. In a serosurvey conducted by the African Population and Health Research Center and Kenya Medical Research Centre in the slums of Nairobi, 43% of sampled individuals did not provide a blood sample. This paper describes selective participation in the serosurvey and estimates bias in HIV prevalence figures. Methods The paper uses data derived from an HIV serosurvey nested in an on-going demographic surveillance system. Nonresponse was assessed using logistic regression and multiple imputation methods to impute missing data for HIV status using a set of common variables available for all sampled participants. Results Age, residence, high mobility, wealth, and ethnicity were independent predictors of a sampled individual not being contacted. Individuals aged 30-34 years, females, individuals from the Kikuyu and Kamba ethnicity, married participants, and residents of Viwandani were all less likely to accept HIV testing when contacted. Although men were less likely to be contacted, those found were more willing to be tested compared to females. The overall observed HIV prevalence was overestimated by 2%. The observed prevalence for male participants was underestimated by about 1% and that for females was overestimated by 3%. These differences were small and did not affect the overall estimate substantially as the observed estimates fell within the confidence limits of the corrected prevalence estimate. Conclusions Nonresponse in the HIV serosurvey in the two informal settlements was high, however, the effect on overall prevalence estimate was minimal. PMID:20649957

Prevalence of psychotic disorders and its association with methodological issues. A systematic review and meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Martín, Carlos; Pastor, Loly

2018-01-01

Objectives The purpose of this study is to provide an updated systematic review to identify studies describing the prevalence of psychosis in order to explore methodological factors that could account for the variation in prevalence estimates. Methods Studies with original data related to the prevalence of psychosis (published between 1990 and 2015) were identified via searching electronic databases and reviewing manual citations. Prevalence estimates were sorted according to prevalence type (point, 12-months and lifetime). The independent association between key methodological variables and the mean effect of prevalence was examined (prevalence type, case-finding setting, method of confirming diagnosis, international classification of diseases, diagnosis category, and study quality) by meta-analytical techniques and random-effects meta-regression. Results Seventy-three primary studies were included, providing a total of 101 estimates of prevalence rates of psychosis. Across these studies, the pooled median point and 12-month prevalence for persons was 3.89 and 4.03 per 1000 respectively; and the median lifetime prevalence was 7.49 per 1000. The result of the random-effects meta-regression analysis revealed a significant effect for the prevalence type, with higher rates of lifetime prevalence than 12-month prevalence (p<0.001). Studies conducted in the general population presented higher prevalence rates than those carried out in populations attended in health/social services (p = 0.006). Compared to the diagnosis of schizophrenia only, prevalence rates were higher in the probable psychotic disorder (p = 0.022) and non-affective psychosis (p = 0.009). Finally, a higher study quality is associated with a lower estimated prevalence of psychotic disorders (p<0.001). Conclusions This systematic review provides a comprehensive comparison of methodologies used in studies of the prevalence of psychosis, which can provide insightful information for future epidemiological studies in adopting the most relevant methodological approach. PMID:29649252

Chronic widespread pain prevalence in the general population: A systematic review.

PubMed

Andrews, P; Steultjens, M; Riskowski, J

2018-01-01

Chronic widespread pain (CWP) is a significant burden in communities. Understanding the impact of population-dependent (e.g., age, gender) and contextual-dependent (e.g. survey method, region, inequality level) factors have on CWP prevalence may provide a foundation for population-based strategies to address CWP. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to estimate the global prevalence of CWP and evaluate the population and contextual factors associated with CWP. A systematic review of CWP prevalence studies (1990-2017) in the general population was undertaken. Meta-analyses were conducted to determine CWP prevalence, and study population data and contextual factors were evaluated using a meta-regression. Thirty-nine manuscripts met the inclusion criteria. Study CWP prevalence ranged from 1.4% to 24.0%, with CWP prevalence in men ranging from 0.8% to 15.3% and 1.7% to 22.1% in women. Estimated overall CWP prevalence was 9.6% (8.0-11.2%). Meta-regression analyses showed gender, United Nations country development status, and human development index (HDI) influenced CWP prevalence, while survey method, region, methodological and reporting quality, and inequality showed no significant effect on the CWP estimate. Globally CWP affects one in ten individuals within the general population, with women more likely to experience CWP than men. HDI was noted to be the socioeconomic factor related to CWP prevalence, with those in more developed countries having a lower CWP prevalence than those in less developed countries. Most CWP estimates were from developed countries, and CWP estimates from countries with a lower socioeconomic position is needed to further refine the global estimate of CWP. This systematic review and meta-analysis updates the current global CWP prevalence by examining the population-level (e.g. age, gender) and contextual (e.g. country development status; survey style; reporting and methodologic quality) factors associated with CWP prevalence. This analyses provides evidence to support higher levels of CWP in countries with a lower socioeconomic position relative to countries with a higher socioeconomic position. © 2017 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

Prevalence of migraine in a diverse community—electronic methods for migraine ascertainment in a large integrated health plan

PubMed Central

Pressman, Alice; Jacobson, Alice; Eguilos, Roderick; Gelfand, Amy; Huynh, Cynthia; Hamilton, Luisa; Avins, Andrew; Bakshi, Nandini; Merikangas, Kathleen

2016-01-01

Introduction The growing availability of electronic health data provides an opportunity to ascertain diagnosis-specific cases via systematic methods for sample recruitment for clinical research and health services evaluation. We developed and implemented a migraine probability algorithm (MPA) to identify migraine from electronic health records (EHR) in an integrated health plan. Methods We identified all migraine outpatient diagnoses and all migraine-specific prescriptions for a five-year period (April 2008–March 2013) from the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California (KPNC) EHR. We developed and evaluated the MPA in two independent samples, and derived prevalence estimates of medically-ascertained migraine in KPNC by age, sex, and race. Results The period prevalence of medically-ascertained migraine among KPNC adults during April 2008–March 2013 was 10.3% (women: 15.5%, men: 4.5%). Estimates peaked with age in women but remained flat for men. Prevalence among Asians was half that of whites. Conclusions We demonstrate the feasibility of an EHR-based algorithm to identify cases of diagnosed migraine and determine that prevalence patterns by our methods yield results comparable to aggregate estimates of treated migraine based on direct interviews in population-based samples. This inexpensive, easily applied EHR-based algorithm provides a new opportunity for monitoring changes in migraine prevalence and identifying potential participants for research studies. PMID:26069243

Spatially Interpolated Disease Prevalence Estimation Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity and Ecological Risk

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2013-01-01

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2013-10-14

This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas.

The prevalence of vegetative and minimally conscious states: a systematic review and methodological appraisal.

PubMed

Pisa, Federica Edith; Biasutti, Emanuele; Drigo, Daniela; Barbone, Fabio

2014-01-01

To systematically review prevalence studies of vegetative state (VS) and minimally conscious state (MCS) in geographically defined populations, to appraise study methods and assess sources of heterogeneity. MEDLINE, EBM Reviews, and EMBASE databases were searched using key terms. Two reviewers independently identified pertinent articles and screened the references for additional studies. Studies measuring the prevalence of VS and/or MCS in a defined population were included, and information on characteristics, methods, and results was extracted. Heterogeneity was quantified through the statistic I. We identified 5 cross-sectional prevalence surveys of VS and 1 of MCS. Prevalence ranged from 0.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 3.4 for VS and was 1.5 per 100,000 for MCS. Relevant heterogeneity (I = 99.0%) prevented us from calculating a summary estimate. The prevalence of trauma cases varied from 21.9% to 53.8%. Variability pertaining to diagnostic criteria, definition of case, and methods of ascertainment was found. In the few prevalence studies of VS and MCS that were identified, the estimates showed high variability and could not be pooled. Future studies should consider using comparable methods for the definition, ascertainment, and confirmation of cases.

A modified approach to estimating sample size for simple logistic regression with one continuous covariate.

PubMed

Novikov, I; Fund, N; Freedman, L S

2010-01-15

Different methods for the calculation of sample size for simple logistic regression (LR) with one normally distributed continuous covariate give different results. Sometimes the difference can be large. Furthermore, some methods require the user to specify the prevalence of cases when the covariate equals its population mean, rather than the more natural population prevalence. We focus on two commonly used methods and show through simulations that the power for a given sample size may differ substantially from the nominal value for one method, especially when the covariate effect is large, while the other method performs poorly if the user provides the population prevalence instead of the required parameter. We propose a modification of the method of Hsieh et al. that requires specification of the population prevalence and that employs Schouten's sample size formula for a t-test with unequal variances and group sizes. This approach appears to increase the accuracy of the sample size estimates for LR with one continuous covariate.

The prevalence of silicosis in Orange Free State gold miners.

PubMed

Cowie, R L; van Schalkwyk, M G

1987-01-01

The prevalence of silicosis in the migrant laborer in the South African, Orange Free State gold mines has not previously been estimated. Two methods were used to estimate the prevalence of silicosis in this population. The two techniques are described. The difference between the two estimates illustrates the difficulty of epidemiologic studies in this type of working population. It is noted that the highest estimate of 138 cases per 10,000 workers is certainly less than the true prevalence of the disorder. The use of routine miniature (100-mm) chest radiographs for the detection of silicosis was validated through comparison with normal size (125-kV radiographs and through analysis of the consistency of reading of second miniature films from the same subjects.

Predicting Periodontitis at State and Local Levels in the United States.

PubMed

Eke, P I; Zhang, X; Lu, H; Wei, L; Thornton-Evans, G; Greenlund, K J; Holt, J B; Croft, J B

2016-05-01

The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis at state and local levels across the United States by using a novel, small area estimation (SAE) method. Extended multilevel regression and poststratification analyses were used to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis among adults aged 30 to 79 y at state, county, congressional district, and census tract levels by using periodontal data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2012, population counts from the 2010 US census, and smoking status estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2012. The SAE method used age, race, gender, smoking, and poverty variables to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/American Academy of Periodontology case definitions at the census block levels and aggregated to larger administrative and geographic areas of interest. Model-based SAEs were validated against national estimates directly from NHANES 2009-2012. Estimated prevalence of periodontitis ranged from 37.7% in Utah to 52.8% in New Mexico among the states (mean, 45.1%; median, 44.9%) and from 33.7% to 68% among counties (mean, 46.6%; median, 45.9%). Severe periodontitis ranged from 7.27% in New Hampshire to 10.26% in Louisiana among the states (mean, 8.9%; median, 8.8%) and from 5.2% to 17.9% among counties (mean, 9.2%; median, 8.8%). Overall, the predicted prevalence of periodontitis was highest for southeastern and southwestern states and for geographic areas in the Southeast along the Mississippi Delta, as well as along the US and Mexico border. Aggregated model-based SAEs were consistent with national prevalence estimates from NHANES 2009-2012. This study is the first-ever estimation of periodontitis prevalence at state and local levels in the United States, and this modeling approach complements public health surveillance efforts to identify areas with a high burden of periodontitis. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2016.

Estimated prevalence of dengue viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, 1995 through 2010.

PubMed

Petersen, Lyle R; Tomashek, Kay M; Biggerstaff, Brad J

2012-08-01

Dengue virus (DENV) nucleic acid amplification testing of blood donations during epidemics in endemic locations, including Puerto Rico, has suggested possible sizable transfusion transmission risk. Estimates of the long-term prevalence of DENV viremic donations will help evaluate the potential magnitude of this risk in Puerto Rico. Estimates of the prevalence of DENV viremia in the Puerto Rican population at large from 1995 through 2010 were derived from dengue case reports and their onset dates obtained from islandwide surveillance, estimates of case underreporting, and extant data on the duration of DENV viremia and the unapparent-to-apparent dengue infection ratio. Under the assumptions that viremia prevalence in blood donors was similar to that of the population at large and that symptomatic persons do not donate, statistical resampling methods were used to estimate the prevalence of dengue viremia in blood donations. Over the 16-year period, the maximum and mean daily prevalences of dengue viremia (per 10,000) in blood donations in Puerto Rico were estimated at 45.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 36.5-55.4) and 7.0 (95% CI, 3.9-10.1), respectively. Prevalence varied considerably by season and year. These data suggest a substantial prevalence of DENV viremia in Puerto Rican blood donations, particularly during outbreaks. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

Gender-specific estimates of COPD prevalence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ntritsos, Georgios; Franek, Jacob; Belbasis, Lazaros; Christou, Maria A; Markozannes, Georgios; Altman, Pablo; Fogel, Robert; Sayre, Tobias; Ntzani, Evangelia E; Evangelou, Evangelos

2018-01-01

COPD has been perceived as being a disease of older men. However, >7 million women are estimated to live with COPD in the USA alone. Despite a growing body of literature suggesting an increasing burden of COPD in women, the evidence is limited. To assess and synthesize the available evidence among population-based epidemiologic studies and calculate the global prevalence of COPD in men and women. A systematic review and meta-analysis reporting gender-specific prevalence of COPD was undertaken. Gender-specific prevalence estimates were abstracted from relevant studies. Associated patient characteristics as well as custom variables pertaining to the diagnostic method and other important epidemiologic covariates were also collected. A Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis was performed investigating gender-specific prevalence of COPD stratified by age, geography, calendar time, study setting, diagnostic method, and disease severity. Among 194 eligible studies, summary prevalence was 9.23% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 8.16%-10.36%) in men and 6.16% (95% CrI: 5.41%-6.95%) in women. Gender prevalences varied widely by the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease subregions, with the highest female prevalence found in North America (8.07% vs 7.30%) and in participants in urban settings (13.03% vs 8.34%). Meta-regression indicated that age ≥40 and bronchodilator testing contributed most significantly to heterogeneity of prevalence estimates across studies. We conducted the largest ever systematic review and meta-analysis of global prevalence of COPD and the first large gender-specific review. These results will increase awareness of COPD as a critical woman's health issue.

Estimating correlation of prevalence at two locations in the farm-to-table continuum using qualitative test data.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Ebel, Eric D

2017-03-20

The presence or absence of contaminants in food samples changes as a commodity moves along the farm-to-table continuum. Interest lies in the degree to which the prevalence (i.e., infected animals or contaminated sample units) at one location in the continuum, as measured by the proportion of test-positive samples, is correlated with the prevalence at a location later in the continuum. If prevalence of a contaminant at one location in the continuum is strongly correlated with the prevalence of the contaminant later in the continuum, then the effect of changes in contamination on overall food safety can be better understood. Pearson's correlation coefficient is one of the simplest metrics of association between two measurements of prevalence but it is biased when data consisting of presence/absence testing results are used to directly estimate the correlation. This study demonstrates the potential magnitude of this bias and explores the utility of three methods for unbiased estimation of the degree of correlation in prevalence. An example, based on testing broiler chicken carcasses for Salmonella at re-hang and post-chill, is used to demonstrate the methods. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prevalence of Suicidal Ideation in Chinese College Students: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Li, Zhan-Zhan; Li, Ya-Ming; Lei, Xian-Yang; Zhang, Dan; Liu, Li; Tang, Si-Yuan; Chen, Lizhang

2014-01-01

Background About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. Objective and Methods Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database) and Weipu (Chinese database) were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. Results A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%). We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. Conclusions The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students. PMID:25285890

Challenges in the Estimation of the Annual Risk of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in Children Aged Less Than 5 Years.

PubMed

Khan, P Y; Glynn, Judith R; Mzembe, T; Mulawa, D; Chiumya, R; Crampin, Amelia C; Kranzer, Katharina; Fielding, Katherine L

2017-10-15

Accurate estimates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in young children provide a critical indicator of ongoing community transmission of M. tuberculosis. Cross-reactions due to infection with environmental mycobacteria and/or bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination compromise the estimates derived from population-level tuberculin skin-test surveys using traditional cutoff methods. Newer statistical approaches are prone to failure of model convergence, especially in settings where the prevalence of M. tuberculosis infection is low and environmental sensitization is high. We conducted a tuberculin skin-test survey in 5,119 preschool children in the general population and among household contacts of tuberculosis cases in 2012-2014 in a district in northern Malawi where sensitization to environmental mycobacteria is common and almost all children are BCG-vaccinated. We compared different proposed methods of estimating M. tuberculosis prevalence, including a method described by Rust and Thomas more than 40 years ago. With the different methods, estimated prevalence in the general population was 0.7%-11.5% at ages <2 years and 0.8%-3.3% at ages 2-4 years. The Rust and Thomas method was the only method to give a lower estimate in the younger age group (0.7% vs 0.8%), suggesting that it was the only method that adjusted appropriately for the marked effect of BCG-attributable induration in the very young. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Method for identifying eligible individuals for a prevalence survey in the absence of a disease register or population register.

PubMed

Richardson, A K; Clarke, G; Sabel, C E; Pearson, J F; Mason, D F; Taylor, B V

2012-11-01

Identifying eligible individuals for a prevalence survey is difficult in the absence of a disease register or a national population register. To develop a method to identify and invite eligible individuals to participate in a national prevalence survey while maintaining confidentiality and complying with privacy legislation. A unique identifier (based on date of birth, sex and initials) was developed so that database holders could identify eligible individuals, notify us and invite them on our behalf to participate in a national multiple sclerosis prevalence survey while maintaining confidentiality and complying with privacy legislation. Several organisations (including central government, health and non-governmental organisations) used the method described to assign unique identifiers to individuals listed on their databases and to forward invitations and consent forms to them. The use of a unique identifier allowed us to recognise and record all the sources of identification for each individual. This prevented double counting or approaching the same individual more than once and facilitated the use of capture-recapture methods to improve the prevalence estimate. Capture-recapture analysis estimated that the method identified over 96% of eligible individuals in this prevalence survey. This method was developed and used successfully in a national prevalence survey of multiple sclerosis in New Zealand. The method may be useful for prevalence surveys of other diseases in New Zealand and for prevalence surveys in other countries with similar privacy legislation and lack of disease registers and population registers. © 2012 The Authors; Internal Medicine Journal © 2012 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

High Prevalence of Obesity in Ambulatory Children and Adolescents with Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, L.; Van de Ven, L.; Katsarou, V.; Rentziou, E.; Doran, M.; Jackson, P.; Reilly, J. J.; Wilson, D.

2009-01-01

Background: Obesity prevalence is unusually high among adults with intellectual disability (ID). There is limited and conflicting evidence on obesity prevalence among ambulatory children and adolescents with ID. The present study aimed to estimate obesity prevalence in this group and to compare with population prevalence. Methods: Survey of nine…

Physical and cognitive doping in university students using the unrelated question model (UQM): Assessing the influence of the probability of receiving the sensitive question on prevalence estimation.

PubMed

Dietz, Pavel; Quermann, Anne; van Poppel, Mireille Nicoline Maria; Striegel, Heiko; Schröter, Hannes; Ulrich, Rolf; Simon, Perikles

2018-01-01

In order to increase the value of randomized response techniques (RRTs) as tools for studying sensitive issues, the present study investigated whether the prevalence estimate for a sensitive item [Formula: see text] assessed with the unrelated questionnaire method (UQM) is influenced by changing the probability of receiving the sensitive question p. A short paper-and-pencil questionnaire was distributed to 1.243 university students assessing the 12-month prevalence of physical and cognitive doping using two versions of the UQM with different probabilities for receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3). Likelihood ratio tests were used to assess whether the prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping differed significantly between p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3. The order of questions (physical doping and cognitive doping) as well as the probability of receiving the sensitive question (p ≈ 1/3 or p ≈ 2/3) were counterbalanced across participants. Statistical power analyses were performed to determine sample size. The prevalence estimate for physical doping with p ≈ 1/3 was 22.5% (95% CI: 10.8-34.1), and 12.8% (95% CI: 7.6-18.0) with p ≈ 2/3. For cognitive doping with p ≈ 1/3, the estimated prevalence was 22.5% (95% CI: 11.0-34.1), whereas it was 18.0% (95% CI: 12.5-23.5) with p ≈ 2/3. Likelihood-ratio tests revealed that prevalence estimates for both physical and cognitive doping, respectively, did not differ significantly under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3 (physical doping: χ2 = 2.25, df = 1, p = 0.13; cognitive doping: χ2 = 0.49, df = 1, p = 0.48). Bayes factors computed with the Savage-Dickey method favored the null ("the prevalence estimates are identical under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") over the alternative ("the prevalence estimates differ under p ≈ 1/3 and p ≈ 2/3") hypothesis for both physical doping (BF = 2.3) and cognitive doping (BF = 5.3). The present results suggest that prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping assessed by the UQM are largely unaffected by the probability for receiving the sensitive question p.

Bayesian inference for disease prevalence using negative binomial group testing

PubMed Central

Pritchard, Nicholas A.; Tebbs, Joshua M.

2011-01-01

Group testing, also known as pooled testing, and inverse sampling are both widely used methods of data collection when the goal is to estimate a small proportion. Taking a Bayesian approach, we consider the new problem of estimating disease prevalence from group testing when inverse (negative binomial) sampling is used. Using different distributions to incorporate prior knowledge of disease incidence and different loss functions, we derive closed form expressions for posterior distributions and resulting point and credible interval estimators. We then evaluate our new estimators, on Bayesian and classical grounds, and apply our methods to a West Nile Virus data set. PMID:21259308

Effective classification of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni.

PubMed

Mitchell, Shira A; Pagano, Marcello

2012-12-01

To present an effective classification method based on the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni in the community. We created decision rules (defined by cut-offs for number of positive slides), which account for imperfect sensitivity, both with a simple adjustment of fixed sensitivity and with a more complex adjustment of changing sensitivity with prevalence. To reduce screening costs while maintaining accuracy, we propose a pooled classification method. To estimate sensitivity, we use the De Vlas model for worm and egg distributions. We compare the proposed method with the standard method to investigate differences in efficiency, measured by number of slides read, and accuracy, measured by probability of correct classification. Modelling varying sensitivity lowers the lower cut-off more significantly than the upper cut-off, correctly classifying regions as moderate rather than lower, thus receiving life-saving treatment. The classification method goes directly to classification on the basis of positive pools, avoiding having to know sensitivity to estimate prevalence. For model parameter values describing worm and egg distributions among children, the pooled method with 25 slides achieves an expected 89.9% probability of correct classification, whereas the standard method with 50 slides achieves 88.7%. Among children, it is more efficient and more accurate to use the pooled method for classification of S. mansoni prevalence than the current standard method. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A Comparison of the Cheater Detection and the Unrelated Question Models: A Randomized Response Survey on Physical and Cognitive Doping in Recreational Triathletes

PubMed Central

Schröter, Hannes; Studzinski, Beatrix; Dietz, Pavel; Ulrich, Rolf; Striegel, Heiko; Simon, Perikles

2016-01-01

Purpose This study assessed the prevalence of physical and cognitive doping in recreational triathletes with two different randomized response models, that is, the Cheater Detection Model (CDM) and the Unrelated Question Model (UQM). Since both models have been employed in assessing doping, the major objective of this study was to investigate whether the estimates of these two models converge. Material and Methods An anonymous questionnaire was distributed to 2,967 athletes at two triathlon events (Frankfurt and Wiesbaden, Germany). Doping behavior was assessed either with the CDM (Frankfurt sample, one Wiesbaden subsample) or the UQM (one Wiesbaden subsample). A generalized likelihood-ratio test was employed to check whether the prevalence estimates differed significantly between models. In addition, we compared the prevalence rates of the present survey with those of a previous study on a comparable sample. Results After exclusion of incomplete questionnaires and outliers, the data of 2,017 athletes entered the final data analysis. Twelve-month prevalence for physical doping ranged from 4% (Wiesbaden, CDM and UQM) to 12% (Frankfurt CDM), and for cognitive doping from 1% (Wiesbaden, CDM) to 9% (Frankfurt CDM). The generalized likelihood-ratio test indicated no differences in prevalence rates between the two methods. Furthermore, there were no significant differences in prevalences between the present (undertaken in 2014) and the previous survey (undertaken in 2011), although the estimates tended to be smaller in the present survey. Discussion The results suggest that the two models can provide converging prevalence estimates. The high rate of cheaters estimated by the CDM, however, suggests that the present results must be seen as a lower bound and that the true prevalence of doping might be considerably higher. PMID:27218830

Prevalence of systolic inter-arm differences in blood pressure for different primary care populations: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

2016-01-01

Background Various prevalence figures have been reported for inter-arm differences in blood pressure (IAD); variation may be explained by differing population vascular risk and by measurement method. Aim To review the literature to derive robust estimates of IAD prevalence relevant to community populations. Design and setting Systematic review and meta-analysis. Method MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL were searched for cross-sectional studies likely to represent general or primary care populations, reporting prevalence of IAD and employing a simultaneous method of measurement. Using study-level data, pooled estimates of mean prevalence of systolic IADs were calculated and compared using a random effects model. Results Eighty IAD studies were identified. Sixteen met inclusion criteria: pooled estimates of prevalence for systolic IAD ≥10 mmHg were 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1 to 13.6) in hypertension, 7.4% (95% CI = 5.8 to 9.2) in diabetes, and 3.6% (95% CI = 2.3 to 5.0) for a general adult population (P<0.001 for subgroup differences). Differences persisted for higher cut-off values. Prevalences were lower for East Asian than for Western populations and were overestimated by sequential measurement where this could be compared with simultaneous measurement within studies (relative risk for IAD: 2.9 [95% CI = 2.1 to 4.1]). Studies with higher mean absolute systolic pressures had higher prevalences for a systolic IAD ≥10 mmHg (P = 0.04). Conclusion Prevalences of IADs rise in relation to underlying cardiovascular comorbidities of the population studied, and are overestimated threefold when sequential measurement is used. Population-specific variation in prevalences of IAD should be taken into account in delivering clinical care and in planning future studies. PMID:27789511

Comparison of Methods for Estimating Prevalence of Chronic Diseases and Health Behaviors for Small Geographic Areas: Boston Validation Study, 2013

PubMed Central

Holt, James B.; Zhang, Xingyou; Lu, Hua; Shah, Snehal N.; Dooley, Daniel P.; Matthews, Kevin A.; Croft, Janet B.

2017-01-01

Introduction Local health authorities need small-area estimates for prevalence of chronic diseases and health behaviors for multiple purposes. We generated city-level and census-tract–level prevalence estimates of 27 measures for the 500 largest US cities. Methods To validate the methodology, we constructed multilevel logistic regressions to predict 10 selected health indicators among adults aged 18 years or older by using 2013 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data; we applied their predicted probabilities to census population data to generate city-level, neighborhood-level, and zip-code–level estimates for the city of Boston, Massachusetts. Results By comparing the predicted estimates with their corresponding direct estimates from a locally administered survey (Boston BRFSS 2010 and 2013), we found that our model-based estimates for most of the selected health indicators at the city level were close to the direct estimates from the local survey. We also found strong correlation between the model-based estimates and direct survey estimates at neighborhood and zip code levels for most indicators. Conclusion Findings suggest that our model-based estimates are reliable and valid at the city level for certain health outcomes. Local health authorities can use the neighborhood-level estimates if high quality local health survey data are not otherwise available. PMID:29049020

Prevalence of migraine in a diverse community--electronic methods for migraine ascertainment in a large integrated health plan.

PubMed

Pressman, Alice; Jacobson, Alice; Eguilos, Roderick; Gelfand, Amy; Huynh, Cynthia; Hamilton, Luisa; Avins, Andrew; Bakshi, Nandini; Merikangas, Kathleen

2016-04-01

The growing availability of electronic health data provides an opportunity to ascertain diagnosis-specific cases via systematic methods for sample recruitment for clinical research and health services evaluation. We developed and implemented a migraine probability algorithm (MPA) to identify migraine from electronic health records (EHR) in an integrated health plan. We identified all migraine outpatient diagnoses and all migraine-specific prescriptions for a five-year period (April 2008-March 2013) from the Kaiser Permanente, Northern California (KPNC) EHR. We developed and evaluated the MPA in two independent samples, and derived prevalence estimates of medically-ascertained migraine in KPNC by age, sex, and race. The period prevalence of medically-ascertained migraine among KPNC adults during April 2008-March 2013 was 10.3% (women: 15.5%, men: 4.5%). Estimates peaked with age in women but remained flat for men. Prevalence among Asians was half that of whites. We demonstrate the feasibility of an EHR-based algorithm to identify cases of diagnosed migraine and determine that prevalence patterns by our methods yield results comparable to aggregate estimates of treated migraine based on direct interviews in population-based samples. This inexpensive, easily applied EHR-based algorithm provides a new opportunity for monitoring changes in migraine prevalence and identifying potential participants for research studies. © International Headache Society 2015.

Surveillance of systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases using administrative data.

PubMed

Bernatsky, S; Lix, L; Hanly, J G; Hudson, M; Badley, E; Peschken, C; Pineau, C A; Clarke, A E; Fortin, P R; Smith, M; Bélisle, P; Lagace, C; Bergeron, L; Joseph, L

2011-04-01

There is growing interest in developing tools and methods for the surveillance of chronic rheumatic diseases, using existing resources such as administrative health databases. To illustrate how this might work, we used population-based administrative data to estimate and compare the prevalence of systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases (SARDs) across three Canadian provinces, assessing for regional differences and the effects of demographic factors. Cases of SARDs (systemic lupus erythematosus, scleroderma, primary Sjogren's, polymyositis/dermatomyositis) were ascertained from provincial physician billing and hospitalization data. We combined information from three case definitions, using hierarchical Bayesian latent class regression models that account for the imperfect nature of each case definition. Using methods that account for the imperfect nature of both billing and hospitalization databases, we estimated the over-all prevalence of SARDs to be approximately 2-3 cases per 1,000 residents. Stratified prevalence estimates suggested similar demographic trends across provinces (i.e. greater prevalence in females-versus-males, and in persons of older age). The prevalence in older females approached or exceeded 1 in 100, which may reflect the high burden of primary Sjogren's syndrome in this group. Adjusting for demographics, there was a greater prevalence in urban-versus-rural settings. In our work, prevalence estimates had good face validity and provided useful information about potential regional and demographic variations. Our results suggest that surveillance of some rheumatic diseases using administrative data may indeed be feasible. Our work highlights the usefulness of using multiple data sources, adjusting for the error in each.

Estimating the Global Prevalence of Inadequate Zinc Intake from National Food Balance Sheets: Effects of Methodological Assumptions

PubMed Central

Wessells, K. Ryan; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Brown, Kenneth H.

2012-01-01

Background The prevalence of inadequate zinc intake in a population can be estimated by comparing the zinc content of the food supply with the population’s theoretical requirement for zinc. However, assumptions regarding the nutrient composition of foods, zinc requirements, and zinc absorption may affect prevalence estimates. These analyses were conducted to: (1) evaluate the effect of varying methodological assumptions on country-specific estimates of the prevalence of dietary zinc inadequacy and (2) generate a model considered to provide the best estimates. Methodology and Principal Findings National food balance data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Zinc and phytate contents of these foods were estimated from three nutrient composition databases. Zinc absorption was predicted using a mathematical model (Miller equation). Theoretical mean daily per capita physiological and dietary requirements for zinc were calculated using recommendations from the Food and Nutrition Board of the Institute of Medicine and the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group. The estimated global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake varied between 12–66%, depending on which methodological assumptions were applied. However, country-specific rank order of the estimated prevalence of inadequate intake was conserved across all models (r = 0.57–0.99, P<0.01). A “best-estimate” model, comprised of zinc and phytate data from a composite nutrient database and IZiNCG physiological requirements for absorbed zinc, estimated the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake to be 17.3%. Conclusions and Significance Given the multiple sources of uncertainty in this method, caution must be taken in the interpretation of the estimated prevalence figures. However, the results of all models indicate that inadequate zinc intake may be fairly common globally. Inferences regarding the relative likelihood of zinc deficiency as a public health problem in different countries can be drawn based on the country-specific rank order of estimated prevalence of inadequate zinc intake. PMID:23209781

Applied Prevalence Ratio estimation with different Regression models: An example from a cross-national study on substance use research.

PubMed

Espelt, Albert; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Penelo, Eva; Bosque-Prous, Marina

2016-06-14

To examine the differences between Prevalence Ratio (PR) and Odds Ratio (OR) in a cross-sectional study and to provide tools to calculate PR using two statistical packages widely used in substance use research (STATA and R). We used cross-sectional data from 41,263 participants of 16 European countries participating in the Survey on Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The dependent variable, hazardous drinking, was calculated using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C). The main independent variable was gender. Other variables used were: age, educational level and country of residence. PR of hazardous drinking in men with relation to women was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method, log-binomial regression models and poisson regression models with robust variance. These estimations were compared to the OR calculated using logistic regression models. Prevalence of hazardous drinkers varied among countries. Generally, men have higher prevalence of hazardous drinking than women [PR=1.43 (1.38-1.47)]. Estimated PR was identical independently of the method and the statistical package used. However, OR overestimated PR, depending on the prevalence of hazardous drinking in the country. In cross-sectional studies, where comparisons between countries with differences in the prevalence of the disease or condition are made, it is advisable to use PR instead of OR.

Chronic disease prevalence from Italian administrative databases in the VALORE project: a validation through comparison of population estimates with general practice databases and national survey

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Administrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources. Methods Data from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment. Results Crude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in administrative data vs 6.8% in survey data). The prevalence estimates for COPD from GP data were consistently higher than the corresponding estimates from the other two sources. Conclusion This study supports the use of data from Italian administrative databases to estimate geographic differences in population prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, treated diabetes, diabetes mellitus and heart failure. The algorithm for COPD used in this study requires further refinement. PMID:23297821

Distribution of malaria exposure in endemic countries in Africa considering country levels of effective treatment.

PubMed

Penny, Melissa A; Maire, Nicolas; Bever, Caitlin A; Pemberton-Ross, Peter; Briët, Olivier J T; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Smith, Thomas A

2015-10-05

Malaria prevalence, clinical incidence, treatment, and transmission rates are dynamically interrelated. Prevalence is often considered a measure of malaria transmission, but treatment of clinical malaria reduces prevalence, and consequently also infectiousness to the mosquito vector and onward transmission. The impact of the frequency of treatment on prevalence in a population is generally not considered. This can lead to potential underestimation of malaria exposure in settings with good health systems. Furthermore, these dynamical relationships between prevalence, treatment, and transmission have not generally been taken into account in estimates of burden. Using prevalence as an input, estimates of disease incidence and transmission [as the distribution of the entomological inoculation rate (EIR)] for Plasmodium falciparum have now been made for 43 countries in Africa using both empirical relationships (that do not allow for treatment) and OpenMalaria dynamic micro-simulation models (that explicitly include the effects of treatment). For each estimate, prevalence inputs were taken from geo-statistical models fitted for the year 2010 by the Malaria Atlas Project to all available observed prevalence data. National level estimates of the effectiveness of case management in treating clinical attacks were used as inputs to the estimation of both EIR and disease incidence by the dynamic models. When coverage of effective treatment is taken into account, higher country level estimates of average EIR and thus higher disease burden, are obtained for a given prevalence level, especially where access to treatment is high, and prevalence relatively low. These methods provide a unified framework for comparison of both the immediate and longer-term impacts of case management and of preventive interventions.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Tierney, Edward F.; Burrows, Nilka R.; Barker, Lawrence E.; Beckles, Gloria L.; Boyle, James P.; Cadwell, Betsy L.; Kirtland, Karen A.; Thompson, Theodore J.

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. Methods A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. Results The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%–18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. Conclusions These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%–18.2%). PMID:23939364

Trends in Allergic Conditions among Children: United States, 1997-2011

MedlinePlus

... and imputed family income ( 13 ). Data source and methods Prevalence estimates for allergic conditions were obtained from ... sample design of NHIS. The Taylor series linearization method was chosen for variance estimation. Differences between percentages ...

Healthy life expectancy in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China.

PubMed Central

Law, C. K.; Yip, P. S. F.

2003-01-01

Sullivan's method and a regression model were used to calculate healthy life expectancy (HALE) for men and women in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (Hong Kong SAR) of China. These methods need estimates of the prevalence and information on disability distributions of 109 diseases and HALE for 191 countries by age, sex and region of the world from the WHO's health assessment of 2000. The population of Hong Kong SAR has one of the highest healthy life expectancies in the world. Sullivan's method gives higher estimates than the classic linear regression method. Although Sullivan's method accurately calculates the influence of disease prevalence within small areas and regions, the regression method can approximate HALE for all economies for which information on life expectancy is available. This paper identifies some problems of the two methods and discusses the accuracy of estimates of HALE that rely on data from the WHO assessment. PMID:12640475

Applicability and agreement of different diagnostic criteria for sarcopenia estimation in the elderly.

PubMed

Pagotto, Valéria; Silveira, Erika Aparecida

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study cross-sectional study comprising 132 community dwelling elderly (≥ 60 years) was to identify sarcopenia prevalence in the Brazilian elderly, utilizing different diagnostic criteria and analyze agreement between criteria. Sarcopenia was assessed by nine muscle mass diagnostic criteria, by two muscle strength criteria and also by the combination of criteria. Prevalence was analyzed for each method, along with differences by gender and age group through calculation of the prevalence ratio (PR) and confidence interval (CI) 95%. The Kappa coefficient was used to analyze the level of agreement between all criteria. Sarcopenia prevalence varied between 60.6% and 8.3% with the application of muscle mass criteria, and between 54.2% and 48.8% with the application of strength criteria. The combination muscle mass+strength resulted in a decrease of prevalence in all criteria, varying between 36.6% and 6.1%. There was an increase in prevalence according to age groups for all methods. Prevalence was higher for men according to three muscle mass criteria, and higher in women for strength criteria and by two combined mass+strength criteria. The best level of agreement was obtained for two methods that utilized dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA). The prevalence of sarcopenia differs by gender and age and definition criteria. The low agreement levels obtained between methods and the different prevalence values encountered indicate the necessities of an operational definition for the estimation of sarcopenia in different population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genital Chlamydia Prevalence in Europe and Non-European High Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Redmond, Shelagh M.; Alexander-Kisslig, Karin; Woodhall, Sarah C.; van den Broek, Ingrid V. F.; van Bergen, Jan; Ward, Helen; Uusküla, Anneli; Herrmann, Björn; Andersen, Berit; Götz, Hannelore M.; Sfetcu, Otilia; Low, Nicola

2015-01-01

Background Accurate information about the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis is needed to assess national prevention and control measures. Methods We systematically reviewed population-based cross-sectional studies that estimated chlamydia prevalence in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) Member States and non-European high income countries from January 1990 to August 2012. We examined results in forest plots, explored heterogeneity using the I2 statistic, and conducted random effects meta-analysis if appropriate. Meta-regression was used to examine the relationship between study characteristics and chlamydia prevalence estimates. Results We included 25 population-based studies from 11 EU/EEA countries and 14 studies from five other high income countries. Four EU/EEA Member States reported on nationally representative surveys of sexually experienced adults aged 18–26 years (response rates 52–71%). In women, chlamydia point prevalence estimates ranged from 3.0–5.3%; the pooled average of these estimates was 3.6% (95% CI 2.4, 4.8, I2 0%). In men, estimates ranged from 2.4–7.3% (pooled average 3.5%; 95% CI 1.9, 5.2, I2 27%). Estimates in EU/EEA Member States were statistically consistent with those in other high income countries (I2 0% for women, 6% for men). There was statistical evidence of an association between survey response rate and estimated chlamydia prevalence; estimates were higher in surveys with lower response rates, (p = 0.003 in women, 0.018 in men). Conclusions Population-based surveys that estimate chlamydia prevalence are at risk of participation bias owing to low response rates. Estimates obtained in nationally representative samples of the general population of EU/EEA Member States are similar to estimates from other high income countries. PMID:25615574

Prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders among youth with intellectual disabilities: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Maïano, Christophe; Coutu, Sylvain; Tracey, Danielle; Bouchard, Stéphane; Lepage, Geneviève; Morin, Alexandre J S; Moullec, Grégory

2018-04-06

The purpose of this meta-analytic study was to determine the pooled prevalence estimates of anxiety and depressive disorders among children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities (ID) and to assess the extent to which these pooled prevalence rates differed according to studies' characteristics. A systematic literature search was performed in nine databases and 21 studies, published between 1975 and 2015, met the inclusion criteria. The resulting pooled prevalence estimates of combined subtypes of anxiety and depressive disorders were respectively (a) 5.4% and 2.8% across samples; (b) 1.2% and 0.03% among children; and (c) 7.9% and 1.4% among adolescents. Pooled prevalence estimates for specific subtypes of anxiety disorders ranged from (a) 0.2% to 11.5% across samples; (b) 0.7% to 17.6% among children; and (c) 0.6% to 19.8% among adolescents. Pooled prevalence estimates of dysthymic disorder and major depressive disorder were respectively (a) 3.4% and 2.5% across samples; (b) 2.1% and 3.2% among children; and (c) 6.9% and 5.7% among adolescents. Finally, subgroup analyses showed significant variations in the pooled prevalence estimates of combined subtypes of anxiety disorders, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder; and combined subtypes of depressive disorders. The present findings of this meta-analysis should be interpreted with caution given several limitations related to the characteristics of the populations, diagnostic method and sampling method. Findings provide recommendations for future studies investigating psychological disorders among youth with ID, as well as how clinicians and policy makers can improve diagnostic practices and support for youth with ID. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of osteoarthritis definition on prevalence and incidence estimates: a systematic review.

PubMed

Pereira, D; Peleteiro, B; Araújo, J; Branco, J; Santos, R A; Ramos, E

2011-11-01

To understand the differences in prevalence and incidence estimates of osteoarthritis (OA), according to case definition, in knee, hip and hand joints. A systematic review was carried out in PUBMED and SCOPUS databases comprising the date of publication period from January 1995 to February 2011. We attempted to summarise data on the incidence and prevalence of OA according to different methods of assessment: self-reported, radiographic and symptomatic OA (clinical plus radiographic). Prevalence estimates were combined through meta-analysis and between-study heterogeneity was quantified. Seventy-two papers were reviewed (nine on incidence and 63 on prevalence). Higher OA prevalences are seen when radiographic OA definition was used for all age groups. Prevalence meta-analysis showed high heterogeneity between studies even in each specific joint and using the same OA definition. Although the knee is the most studied joint, the highest OA prevalence estimates were found in hand joints. OA of the knee tends to be more prevalent in women than in men independently of the OA definition used, but no gender differences were found in hip and hand OA. Insufficient data for incidence studies didn't allow us to make any comparison according to joint site or OA definition. Radiographic case definition of OA presented the highest prevalences. Within each joint site, self-reported and symptomatic OA definitions appear to present similar estimates. The high heterogeneity found in the studies limited further conclusions. Copyright © 2011 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

2003-03-01

An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

Joint use of epidemiological and hospital medico-administrative data to estimate prevalence. Application to French data on breast cancer.

PubMed

Colonna, Marc; Mitton, Nicolas; Schott, Anne-Marie; Remontet, Laurent; Olive, Frédéric; Gomez, Frédéric; Iwaz, Jean; Polazzi, Stéphanie; Bossard, Nadine; Trombert, Béatrice

2012-04-01

Estimate complete, limited-duration, and hospital prevalence of breast cancer in a French Département covered by a population-based cancer registry and in whole France using complementary information sources. Incidence data from a cancer registry, national incidence estimations for France, mortality data, and hospital medico-administrative data were used to estimate the three prevalence indices. The methods included a modelling of epidemiological data and a specific process of data extraction from medico-administrative databases. Limited-duration prevalence at 33 years was a proxy for complete prevalence only in patients aged less than 70 years. In 2007 and in women older than 15 years, the limited-duration prevalence at 33 years rate per 100,000 women was estimated at 2372 for Département Isère and 2354 for whole France. The latter rate corresponded to 613,000 women. The highest rate corresponded to women aged 65-74 years (6161 per 100,000 in whole France). About one third of the 33-year limited-duration prevalence cases were diagnosed five years before and about one fourth were hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care (i.e., hospital prevalence). In 2007, the rate of hospitalized women was 557 per 100,000 in whole France. Among the 120,310 women hospitalized for breast-cancer-related care in 2007, about 13% were diagnosed before 2004. Limited-duration prevalence (long- and short-term), and hospital prevalence are complementary indices of cancer prevalence. Their efficient direct or indirect estimations are essential to reflect the burden of the disease and forecast median- and long-term medical, economic, and social patient needs, especially after the initial treatment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Composite Partial Likelihood Estimation Under Length-Biased Sampling, With Application to a Prevalent Cohort Study of Dementia

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing

2013-01-01

The Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) employed a prevalent cohort design to study survival after onset of dementia, where patients with dementia were sampled and the onset time of dementia was determined retrospectively. The prevalent cohort sampling scheme favors individuals who survive longer. Thus, the observed survival times are subject to length bias. In recent years, there has been a rising interest in developing estimation procedures for prevalent cohort survival data that not only account for length bias but also actually exploit the incidence distribution of the disease to improve efficiency. This article considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox model for the time from dementia onset to death under a stationarity assumption with respect to the disease incidence. Under the stationarity condition, the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimation is expected to be fully efficient yet difficult to perform for statistical practitioners, as the likelihood depends on the baseline hazard function in a complicated way. Moreover, the asymptotic properties of the semiparametric maximum likelihood estimator are not well-studied. Motivated by the composite likelihood method (Besag 1974), we develop a composite partial likelihood method that retains the simplicity of the popular partial likelihood estimator and can be easily performed using standard statistical software. When applied to the CSHA data, the proposed method estimates a significant difference in survival between the vascular dementia group and the possible Alzheimer’s disease group, while the partial likelihood method for left-truncated and right-censored data yields a greater standard error and a 95% confidence interval covering 0, thus highlighting the practical value of employing a more efficient methodology. To check the assumption of stable disease for the CSHA data, we also present new graphical and numerical tests in the article. The R code used to obtain the maximum composite partial likelihood estimator for the CSHA data is available in the online Supplementary Material, posted on the journal web site. PMID:24000265

A comparison of standard definitions and sagittal abdominal ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Introduction: Metabolic syndrome (MeTS) is the cluster of several clinical symptoms that together represent the strongest risk factor for cardiovascular disease. The prevalence of MeTS in adolescents is difficult to estimate given that there are several, but no agreed upon definition of MeTS for this age group. It is important to estimate MeTS and identify at-risk adolescents early in order to provide effective interventions prior to the development of diabetes and coronary heart disease. Objective: Study objectives are to: (1) estimate the prevalence of MeTS in U.S. adolescents using three widely adopted definitions and (2) compare changes in prevalence of MeTS when utilizing sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD) as a component of MeTS. Methods: Data from U.S. adolescents ages 12–19 years (N=970) in the NHANES (2011–2014) were analyzed. MeTS standard definitions developed by Cook et al. (2003), deFerranti et al. (2007), and the International Disease Federation (IDF, 2007) were applied to estimate the sex-stratified, weighted prevalence of MeTS and its individual components (i.e., high waist circumference (WC), hypertension, blood lipid abnormalities, and high fasting blood glucose (FBG)). The definitions were modified by substituting SAD for WC, and weighted MeTS prevalence was re-estimated. Results: Regardless of gender and definition, abnormal blood lipids and high WC were the most prevalent MeTS components. For both sexes, estimated prevalence of componen

Accounting for multimorbidity can affect the estimation of the Burden of Disease: a comparison of approaches.

PubMed

Hilderink, Henk B M; Plasmans, Marjanne H D; Snijders, Bianca E P; Boshuizen, Hendriek C; Poos, M J J C René; van Gool, Coen H

2016-01-01

Various Burden of Disease (BoD) studies do not account for multimorbidity in their BoD estimates. Ignoring multimorbidity can lead to inaccuracies in BoD estimations, particularly in ageing populations that include large proportions of persons with two or more health conditions. The objective of this study is to improve BoD estimates for the Netherlands by accounting for multimorbidity. For this purpose, we analyzed different methods for 1) estimating the prevalence of multimorbidity and 2) deriving Disability Weights (DWs) for multimorbidity by using existing data on single health conditions. We included 25 health conditions from the Dutch Burden of Disease study that have a high rate of prevalence and that make a large contribution to the total number of Years Lived with a Disability (YLD). First, we analyzed four methods for estimating the prevalence of multimorbid conditions (i.e. independent, independent age- and sex-specific, dependent, and dependent sex- and age-specific). Secondly, we analyzed three methods for calculating the Combined Disability Weights (CDWs) associated with multimorbid conditions (i.e. additive, multiplicative and maximum limit). A combination of these two approaches was used to recalculate the number of YLDs, which is a component of the Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). This study shows that the YLD estimates for 25 health conditions calculated using the multiplicative method for Combined Disability Weights are 5 % lower, and 14 % lower when using the maximum limit method, than when calculated using the additive method. Adjusting for sex- and age-specific dependent co-occurrence of health conditions reduces the number of YLDs by 10 % for the multiplicative method and by 26 % for the maximum limit method. The adjustment is higher for health conditions with a higher prevalence in old age, like heart failure (up to 43 %) and coronary heart diseases (up to 33 %). Health conditions with a high prevalence in middle age, such as anxiety disorders, have a moderate adjustment (up to 13 %). We conclude that BoD calculations that do not account for multimorbidity can result in an overestimation of the actual BoD. This may affect public health policy strategies that focus on single health conditions if the underlying cost-effectiveness analysis overestimates the intended effects. The methodology used in this study could be further refined to provide greater insight into co-occurrence and the possible consequences of multimorbid conditions in terms of disability for particular combinations of health conditions.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

Challenges in risk estimation using routinely collected clinical data: The example of estimating cervical cancer risks from electronic health-records.

PubMed

Landy, Rebecca; Cheung, Li C; Schiffman, Mark; Gage, Julia C; Hyun, Noorie; Wentzensen, Nicolas; Kinney, Walter K; Castle, Philip E; Fetterman, Barbara; Poitras, Nancy E; Lorey, Thomas; Sasieni, Peter D; Katki, Hormuzd A

2018-06-01

Electronic health-records (EHR) are increasingly used by epidemiologists studying disease following surveillance testing to provide evidence for screening intervals and referral guidelines. Although cost-effective, undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval censoring (in which asymptomatic disease is only observed at the time of testing) raise substantial analytic issues when estimating risk that cannot be addressed using Kaplan-Meier methods. Based on our experience analysing EHR from cervical cancer screening, we previously proposed the logistic-Weibull model to address these issues. Here we demonstrate how the choice of statistical method can impact risk estimates. We use observed data on 41,067 women in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2003-2013, as well as simulations to evaluate the ability of different methods (Kaplan-Meier, Turnbull, Weibull and logistic-Weibull) to accurately estimate risk within a screening program. Cumulative risk estimates from the statistical methods varied considerably, with the largest differences occurring for prevalent disease risk when baseline disease ascertainment was random but incomplete. Kaplan-Meier underestimated risk at earlier times and overestimated risk at later times in the presence of interval censoring or undiagnosed prevalent disease. Turnbull performed well, though was inefficient and not smooth. The logistic-Weibull model performed well, except when event times didn't follow a Weibull distribution. We have demonstrated that methods for right-censored data, such as Kaplan-Meier, result in biased estimates of disease risks when applied to interval-censored data, such as screening programs using EHR data. The logistic-Weibull model is attractive, but the model fit must be checked against Turnbull non-parametric risk estimates. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Innovative recruitment using online networks: lessons learned from an online study of alcohol and other drug use utilizing a web-based, respondent-driven sampling (webRDS) strategy.

PubMed

Bauermeister, José A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Johns, Michelle M; Glowacki, Pietreck; Stoddard, Sarah; Volz, Erik

2012-09-01

We used a web version of Respondent-Driven Sampling (webRDS) to recruit a sample of young adults (ages 18-24) and examined whether this strategy would result in alcohol and other drug (AOD) prevalence estimates comparable to national estimates (National Survey on Drug Use and Health [NSDUH]). We recruited 22 initial participants (seeds) via Facebook to complete a web survey examining AOD risk correlates. Sequential, incentivized recruitment continued until our desired sample size was achieved. After correcting for webRDS clustering effects, we contrasted our AOD prevalence estimates (past 30 days) to NSDUH estimates by comparing the 95% confidence intervals of prevalence estimates. We found comparable AOD prevalence estimates between our sample and NSDUH for the past 30 days for alcohol, marijuana, cocaine, Ecstasy (3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, or MDMA), and hallucinogens. Cigarette use was lower than NSDUH estimates. WebRDS may be a suitable strategy to recruit young adults online. We discuss the unique strengths and challenges that may be encountered by public health researchers using webRDS methods.

Prevalence, Trend and Determining Factors of Gestational Diabetes in Germany.

PubMed

Huy, C; Loerbroks, A; Hornemann, A; Röhrig, S; Schneider, S

2012-04-01

Purpose: The true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany is unknown. Thus, the study's purposes were to estimate the prevalence of gestational diabetes as well as to describe the temporal prevalence trend and to identify determinants. Material and Methods: We calculated prevalence estimates based on two datasets: the register-based German perinatal statistic (n = 650 232) and the maternal self-reports from the German children and youth health survey (KiGGS; n = 15 429). Differences between prevalence estimates were analysed using χ 2 and trend tests, and determinants were identified using logistic regression. Results: According to the perinatal statistic, gestational diabetes was present in 3.7 % of pregnant women in Germany in 2010. The prevalence across the years 2001 to 2006 was estimated at 1.9 % which differed significantly from the prevalence estimate derived from the KiGGS dataset for the same period of time (5.3 %; 95 % confidence interval: 4.6-6.1 %). Both datasets show an increasing trend of gestational diabetes (p < 0.001). The risk for gestational diabetes was mainly associated with age, BMI and social class of pregnant women as well as with multiple pregnancies. Conclusion: The lack of significant screening studies among representative samples hampers a sound estimation of the true prevalence of gestational diabetes in Germany. The increasing trend in gestational diabetes might continue due to the projected increase of important risk factors (e.g., maternal age, obesity). Our analyses support the current consensus recommendations regarding standardised gestational diabetes screening.

Cancer prevalence in Italian cancer registry areas: the ITAPREVAL study. ITAPREVAL Working Group.

PubMed

Micheli, A; Francisci, S; Krogh, V; Rossi, A G; Crosignani, P

1999-01-01

To present data on cancer prevalence for the areas covered by Italian cancer registries, by using a standardized set of data collection and elaboration criteria, and a single method of data analysis. Data on over 250,000 patients with cancer, diagnosed between 1978 and 1992, from 11 Italian cancer registries covering about 12% of the Italian population were collected, validated and analyzed according to the unified protocol of the ITAPREVAL project. The method implemented in the PREVAL computer program was used to provide prevalence estimates for the period covered by cancer registration. The total prevalence for each registry and for the pool of all registries was then estimated by correcting for incomplete observations due to the period in which the registration was not yet activated. All prevalence estimates were for 1992. Prevalence figures are presented by cancer site, age, sex, years from diagnosis and registry area. For all malignancies combined, total prevalence ranged from 1,350 per 100,000 inhabitants in Ragusa to 3,650 per 100,000 inhabitants in Romagna, the ratio between these two extremes being 2.7. For the pool of the areas covered by registration cancer prevalence was 3,100 per 100,000 females and 2,250 per 100,000 males. About a third of the total female cases and about half the male cases were diagnosed in the previous five years. Among those aged over 75 years, total prevalence was higher for males than for females: 11,300 versus 8,900 per 100,000 respectively. This is the first large-scale estimate of the burden of cancer in Italy. It is also one of the first studies in the world which was aimed to study cancer prevalence in detail. These data are necessary for predicting health service needs and help in the evaluation of differences in health service demand by sex, age and Italian regions.

Comparison of haemoglobin estimates using direct & indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

PubMed

Bansal, Priyanka Gupta; Toteja, Gurudayal Singh; Bhatia, Neena; Gupta, Sanjeev; Kaur, Manpreet; Adhikari, Tulsi; Garg, Ashok Kumar

2016-10-01

Estimation of haemoglobin is the most widely used method to assess anaemia. Although direct cyanmethaemoglobin method is the recommended method for estimation of haemoglobin, but it may not be feasible under field conditions. Hence, the present study was undertaken to compare indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method against the conventional direct method for haemoglobin estimation. Haemoglobin levels were estimated for 888 adolescent girls aged 11-18 yr residing in an urban slum in Delhi by both direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods, and the results were compared. The mean haemoglobin levels for 888 whole blood samples estimated by direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 116.1 ± 12.7 and 110.5 ± 12.5 g/l, respectively, with a mean difference of 5.67 g/l (95% confidence interval: 5.45 to 5.90, P<0.001); which is equivalent to 0.567 g%. The prevalence of anaemia was reported as 59.6 and 78.2 per cent by direct and indirect methods, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method were 99.2 and 56.4 per cent, respectively. Using regression analysis, prediction equation was developed for indirect haemoglobin values. The present findings revealed that indirect cyanmethaemoglobin method overestimated the prevalence of anaemia as compared to the direct method. However, if a correction factor is applied, indirect method could be successfully used for estimating true haemoglobin level. More studies should be undertaken to establish agreement and correction factor between direct and indirect cyanmethaemoglobin methods.

Risk Factor Detection as a Metric of STARHS Performance for HIV Incidence Surveillance Among Female Sex Workers in Kigali, Rwanda

PubMed Central

Braunstein, Sarah L; van de Wijgert, Janneke H; Vyankandondera, Joseph; Kestelyn, Evelyne; Ntirushwa, Justin; Nash, Denis

2012-01-01

Background: The epidemiologic utility of STARHS hinges not only on producing accurate estimates of HIV incidence, but also on identifying risk factors for recent HIV infection. Methods: As part of an HIV seroincidence study, 800 Rwandan female sex workers (FSW) were HIV tested, with those testing positive further tested by BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays. A sample of HIV-negative (N=397) FSW were followed prospectively for HIV seroconversion. We compared estimates of risk factors for: 1) prevalent HIV infection; 2) recently acquired HIV infection (RI) based on three different STARHS classifications (BED alone, Ax-AI alone, BED/Ax-AI combined); and 3) prospectively observed seroconversion. Results: There was mixed agreement in risk factors between methods. HSV-2 coinfection and recent STI treatment were associated with both prevalent HIV infection and all three measures of recent infection. A number of risk factors were associated only with prevalent infection, including widowhood, history of forced sex, regular alcohol consumption, prior imprisonment, and current breastfeeding. Number of sex partners in the last 3 months was associated with recent infection based on BED/Ax-AI combined, but not other STARHS-based recent infection outcomes or prevalent infection. Risk factor estimates for prospectively observed seroconversion differed in magnitude and direction from those for recent infection via STARHS. Conclusions: Differences in risk factor estimates by each method could reflect true differences in risk factors between the prevalent, recently, or newly infected populations, the effect of study interventions (among those followed prospectively), or assay misclassification. Similar investigations in other populations/settings are needed to further establish the epidemiologic utility of STARHS for identifying risk factors, in addition to incidence rate estimation. PMID:23056162

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations. PMID:28837558

Estimating the Smoking Ban Effects on Smoking Prevalence, Quitting and Cigarette Consumption in a Population Study of Apprentices in Italy

PubMed Central

Pieroni, Luca; Muzi, Giacomo; Quercia, Augusto; Lanari, Donatella; Rundo, Carmen; Minelli, Liliana; Salmasi, Luca; dell’Omo, Marco

2015-01-01

Objectives: We evaluated the effects of the Italian 2005 smoking ban in public places on the prevalence of smoking, quitting and cigarette consumption of young workers. Data and Methods: The dataset was obtained from non-computerized registers of medical examinations for a population of workers with apprenticeship contracts residing in the province of Viterbo, Italy, in the period 1996–2007. To estimate the effects of the ban, a segmented regression approach was used, exploiting the discontinuity introduced by the application of the law on apprentices’ smoking behavior. Results: It is estimated that the Italian smoking ban generally had no effect on smoking prevalence, quitting ratio, or cigarette consumption of apprentices. However, when the estimates were applied to subpopulations, significant effects were found: −1% in smoking prevalence, +2% in quitting, and −3% in smoking intensity of apprentices with at least a diploma. PMID:26287220

Estimated Prevalence of People with Cognitive Impairment: Results from Nationally Representative Community and Institutional Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Amy B.; Remsburg, Robin E.

2007-01-01

Purpose: We address how the national prevalence of cognitive impairment can be estimated from two nationally representative surveys. Design and Methods: Data are from the 1999-2001 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and the 1999 National Nursing Home Survey (NNHS). The NHIS represents all community-dwelling people living in the United States,…

The IDF Diabetes Atlas methodology for estimating global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy.

PubMed

Linnenkamp, U; Guariguata, L; Beagley, J; Whiting, D R; Cho, N H

2014-02-01

Hyperglycaemia is one of the most prevalent metabolic disorders occurring during pregnancy. Limited data are available on the global prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. The International Diabetes Federation (IDF) has developed a methodology for generating estimates of the prevalence of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy, including hyperglycaemia first detected in pregnancy and live births to women with known diabetes, among women of childbearing age (20-49 years). A systematic review of the literature for studies reporting the prevalence of gestational diabetes was conducted. Studies were evaluated and scored to favour those that were representative of a large population, conducted recently, reported age-specific estimates, and case identification was based on blood test. Age-specific prevalence data from studies were entered to produce estimates for five-year age groups using logistic regression to smooth curves, with age as the independent variable. The derived age-specific prevalence was adjusted for differences in diagnostic criteria in the underlying data. Cases of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy were derived from age-specific estimates of fertility and age-specific population estimates. Country-specific estimates were generated for countries with available data. Regional and global estimates were generated based on aggregation and extrapolation for 219 countries and territories. Available fertility rates and diabetes prevalence estimates were used to estimate the proportion of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy that may be due to total diabetes in pregnancy - pregnancy in women with known diabetes and diabetes first detected in pregnancy. The literature review identified 199 studies that were eligible for characterisation and selection. After scoring and exclusion requirements, 46 studies were selected representing 34 countries. More than 50% of selected studies came from Europe and North America and Caribbean. The smallest number of identified studies came from sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of studies were for high-income countries, although low- and middle-income countries were also represented. Prevalence estimates of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy are sensitive to the data from which they are derived. The IDF methodology is a transparent, reproducible, and modifiable method for estimating the burden of hyperglycaemia in pregnancy. More data are needed, in particular from developing countries, to strengthen the methodology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weighing in on international growth standards: testing the case in Australian preschool children.

PubMed

Pattinson, C L; Staton, S L; Smith, S S; Trost, S G; Sawyer, E F; Thorpe, K J

2017-10-01

Overweight and obesity in preschool-aged children are major health concerns. Accurate and reliable estimates of prevalence are necessary to direct public health and clinical interventions. There are currently three international growth standards used to determine prevalence of overweight and obesity, each using different methodologies: Center for Disease Control (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO) and International Obesity Task Force (IOTF). Adoption and use of each method were examined through a systematic review of Australian population studies (2006-2017). For this period, systematically identified population studies (N = 20) reported prevalence of overweight and obesity ranging between 15 and 38% with most (n = 16) applying the IOTF standards. To demonstrate the differences in prevalence estimates yielded by the IOTF in comparison to the WHO and CDC standards, methods were applied to a sample of N = 1,926 Australian children, aged 3-5 years. As expected, the three standards yielded significantly different estimates when applied to this single population. Prevalence of overweight/obesity was WHO - 9.3%, IOTF - 21.7% and CDC - 33.1%. Judicious selection of growth standards, taking account of their underpinning methodologies and provisions of access to study data sets to allow prevalence comparisons, is recommended. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Anaemia in pregnancy in the district of Anuradhapura, Sri Lanka--need for updating prevalence data and screening strategies.

PubMed

Chathurani, U; Dharshika, I; Galgamuwa, D; Wickramasinghe, N D; Agampodi, T C; Agampodi, S B

2012-09-01

To determine the prevalence of anaemia during pregnancy in Anuradhapura district and evaluate present screening methods for anaemia. Modified WHO 30 cluster sampling method with increased precision was used to estimate the prevalence of anaemia in the Anuradhapura district, Sri Lanka. Serum haemoglobin was measured using methemoglobin method. Clinical examination was carried out to evaluate the conjunctival method in anaemia screening. Values recorded from haemoglobin colour scale method used in the field antenatal clinics were collected. A total of 990 pregnant women participated in the study. In the first, second and third trimesters, prevalence of anaemia was 7.6%, 19.7% and 19.3% respectively. Gestational age adjusted anaemia prevalence among pregnant women in this study population was 14.1% (95% CI 12.0-16.4%). Mean and median haemoglobin concentration of the study sample was 11.8g/dL (SD 1.02g/dl and IQR 11.2-12.5g/dl). Among anaemic pregnant women, average values for Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV), Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin (MCH), and Mean Corpuscular Haemoglobin Concentration (MCHC) were, 82.9 fl (SD 11.5), 27.6 (SD-3.6) pg/cell and 32.9g/dl (SD 1.8) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of haemoglobin colour scale method was 50% (95% CI 29.0-71.0%) and 76.3% (95% CI 66.9-83.7%) respectively. Sensitivity and specificity of conjunctival method in detecting anaemia during pregnancy was 18.8% (95% CI 11.9-28.4) and 69.3% (95% CI 58.2- 78.6%). Prevalence of anaemia in the district of Anuradhapura was less than 50% of the estimated prevalence for Sri Lanka. Both haemoglobin colour scale and conjunctival method were having low validity in detecting anaemia in pregnancy.

Prevalence of pterygium in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis study

PubMed Central

Yasemi, Masoud; Bamdad, Shahram; Sarokhani, Diana; Sarokhani, Mandana; Sayemiri, Kourosh

2017-01-01

Background and aim Pterygium is one of the most prevalent pathologies involving the cornea, which can lead to various vision signs and even reduction in eyesight. No accurate estimate has been reported about the prevalence of pterygium in Iran. Hence, this study aimed to determine the pterygium prevalence in Iran by meta-analysis method. Methods Searching for data of the last eleven years (from 2004 to 2015) was conducted using the keywords of pterygium, eye, and Iran in International and domestic indexing services and databases including Iranmedex, Scientific Information Database (SID), Magiran, Irandoc, Medlib, IranPsych, Science Direct, Web of Science (Thomson Reuters), PubMed, and Scopus. The data were analyzed using the meta-analysis method (the random effects model). The disharmony of the studies was investigated using the I2 index. The data were analyzed by STATA Ver.11 software. Results In 5 studies conducted in Iran, with a sample size of 10,838 people between 2004 and 2015, the extent of the prevalence was estimated to be 11% (95% CI: 3 to 18%). Also, the prevalence of pterygium in women and men was 18% and 13%, respectively. Conclusion According to the published reports from Iran and its comparison with other points in the world, the prevalence of pterygium in Iran is high, especially among women. PMID:29560142

The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

PubMed Central

Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

2013-01-01

Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

Estimating relative risks for common outcome using PROC NLP.

PubMed

Yu, Binbing; Wang, Zhuoqiao

2008-05-01

In cross-sectional or cohort studies with binary outcomes, it is biologically interpretable and of interest to estimate the relative risk or prevalence ratio, especially when the response rates are not rare. Several methods have been used to estimate the relative risk, among which the log-binomial models yield the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the parameters. Because of restrictions on the parameter space, the log-binomial models often run into convergence problems. Some remedies, e.g., the Poisson and Cox regressions, have been proposed. However, these methods may give out-of-bound predicted response probabilities. In this paper, a new computation method using the SAS Nonlinear Programming (NLP) procedure is proposed to find the MLEs. The proposed NLP method was compared to the COPY method, a modified method to fit the log-binomial model. Issues in the implementation are discussed. For illustration, both methods were applied to data on the prevalence of microalbuminuria (micro-protein leakage into urine) for kidney disease patients from the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. The sample SAS macro for calculating relative risk is provided in the appendix.

Regional Variation in the Prevalence of E. coli O157 in Cattle: A Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression

PubMed Central

Islam, Md. Zohorul; Musekiwa, Alfred; Islam, Kamrul; Ahmed, Shahana; Chowdhury, Sharmin; Ahad, Abdul; Biswas, Paritosh Kumar

2014-01-01

Background Escherichia coli O157 (EcO157) infection has been recognized as an important global public health concern. But information on the prevalence of EcO157 in cattle at the global and at the wider geographical levels is limited, if not absent. This is the first meta-analysis to investigate the point prevalence of EcO157 in cattle at the global level and to explore the factors contributing to variation in prevalence estimates. Methods Seven electronic databases- CAB Abstracts, PubMed, Biosis Citation Index, Medline, Web of Knowledge, Scirus and Scopus were searched for relevant publications from 1980 to 2012. A random effect meta-analysis model was used to produce the pooled estimates. The potential sources of between study heterogeneity were identified using meta-regression. Principal findings A total of 140 studies consisting 220,427 cattle were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence estimate of EcO157 in cattle at the global level was 5.68% (95% CI, 5.16–6.20). The random effects pooled prevalence estimates in Africa, Northern America, Oceania, Europe, Asia and Latin America-Caribbean were 31.20% (95% CI, 12.35–50.04), 7.35% (95% CI, 6.44–8.26), 6.85% (95% CI, 2.41–11.29), 5.15% (95% CI, 4.21–6.09), 4.69% (95% CI, 3.05–6.33) and 1.65% (95% CI, 0.77–2.53), respectively. Between studies heterogeneity was evidenced in most regions. World region (p<0.001), type of cattle (p<0.001) and to some extent, specimens (p = 0.074) as well as method of pre-enrichment (p = 0.110), were identified as factors for variation in the prevalence estimates of EcO157 in cattle. Conclusion The prevalence of the organism seems to be higher in the African and Northern American regions. The important factors that might have influence in the estimates of EcO157 are type of cattle and kind of screening specimen. Their roles need to be determined and they should be properly handled in any survey to estimate the true prevalence of EcO157. PMID:24691253

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder among Children Aged 5-17 Years in the United States, 1998-2009

MedlinePlus

... and imputed family income ( 10 ). Data source and methods All ADHD prevalence estimates were obtained from the ... sample design of NHIS. The Taylor series linearization method was chosen for variance estimation. Differences between percentages ...

Differences between the prevalence of obesity and weight exceded estimated according to reported or direct measurement in adult people of Valencian Region

PubMed

Jiménez-Talamantes, Raquel; Rizk Hernández, Jennifer; Quiles Izquierdo, Joan

2017-02-01

Introduction: The assessment of obesity in health surveys includes the study of the physical characteristics of human body. Anthropometrical dates can be obtained by measurement or by interview. According the method that we were used we can estimate different values for frequencies of this problem. Objectives: Measure the discrepancies of the frequency of obesity and overweight estimated with data of height and weight obtained by interview respect to those measured in a population survey. Methods: Cross-sectional survey of a sample of 1,153 adult subjects, where height and weight data reported and measured were compared by Pearson correlation. It was estimated the prevalence of obesity and overweight by two methods and we calculated the Kappa’s index, the sensitivity and specifi city for to define the predictive capacity of reported data. Results: The values of weight, height and BMI by declared and measured data presented a correlation of 0.96, 0.93 and 0.91, respectively. The prevalence of obesity was 16.4% with declared data and 23.3% for measured data (kappa = 0.68), sensitivity 63.2% and specifi city 97.9%. The prevalence of excess of weight was 51.4% with declared data and 61.1% for measured data (kappa = 0.73), sensitivity 81.3% and specificity 95.3%. These differences were statistically signifi cant. Conclusions: There is an underestimation of the prevalence of obesity and excess of weight in populations when anthropometric data were used but in good agreement and specificity was found when measured data are used.

The Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in the Metropolitan Area of Rome: A Capture-Recapture Analysis.

PubMed

Farcomeni, Alessio; Cortese, Antonio; Sgarlata, Eleonora; Alunni Fegatelli, Danilo; Marfia, Gerolama Alessandra; Buttari, Fabio; Mirabella, Massimiliano; De Fino, Chiara; Prosperini, Luca; Pozzilli, Carlo; Grasso, Maria Grazia; Iasevoli, Luigi; Di Battista, Giancarlo; Millefiorini, Enrico

2018-03-02

Limited data are available on the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in central Italy. The objective of this study is to estimate MS prevalence in the metropolitan area of Rome. We used the capture-recapture method to calculate prevalence estimates in the study area. The selected prevalence day was December 31, 2015. A total of 1,007 patients, with a definite diagnosis of MS according to the revised McDonald's criteria, were considered for crude, age- and sex-specific prevalence estimation. The overall crude prevalence rate was 146.2 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 119.9-172.5). A higher prevalence rate was recorded in females (194.1, 95% CI 149.6-238.6) than in males (93.0, 95% CI 67.2-118.8) with a female to male ratio of 1.8. Age-specific prevalence peaked in the 25-34 , 35-44 and 45-54 years class; moreover, it was found to increase up to the 45-54 years age group in females and the 35-44 years age group in males, decreasing thereafter. The results confirm that the metropolitan area of Rome is a high-risk area for MS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Estimation of the sensitivity of various environmental sampling methods for detection of Salmonella in duck flocks.

PubMed

Arnold, Mark E; Mueller-Doblies, Doris; Gosling, Rebecca J; Martelli, Francesca; Davies, Robert H

2015-01-01

Reports of Salmonella in ducks in the UK currently rely upon voluntary submissions from the industry, and as there is no harmonized statutory monitoring and control programme, it is difficult to compare data from different years in order to evaluate any trends in Salmonella prevalence in relation to sampling methodology. Therefore, the aim of this project was to assess the sensitivity of a selection of environmental sampling methods, including the sampling of faeces, dust and water troughs or bowls for the detection of Salmonella in duck flocks, and a range of sampling methods were applied to 67 duck flocks. Bayesian methods in the absence of a gold standard were used to provide estimates of the sensitivity of each of the sampling methods relative to the within-flock prevalence. There was a large influence of the within-flock prevalence on the sensitivity of all sample types, with sensitivity reducing as the within-flock prevalence reduced. Boot swabs (individual and pool of four), swabs of faecally contaminated areas and whole house hand-held fabric swabs showed the overall highest sensitivity for low-prevalence flocks and are recommended for use to detect Salmonella in duck flocks. The sample type with the highest proportion positive was a pool of four hair nets used as boot swabs, but this was not the most sensitive sample for low-prevalence flocks. All the environmental sampling types (faeces swabs, litter pinches, drag swabs, water trough samples and dust) had higher sensitivity than individual faeces sampling. None of the methods consistently identified all the positive flocks, and at least 10 samples would be required for even the most sensitive method (pool of four boot swabs) to detect a 5% prevalence. The sampling of dust had a low sensitivity and is not recommended for ducks.

Comparison of Paper-and-Pencil versus Web Administration of the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS): Risk Behavior Prevalence Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eaton, Danice K.; Brener, Nancy D.; Kann, Laura; Denniston, Maxine M.; McManus, Tim; Kyle, Tonja M.; Roberts, Alice M.; Flint, Katherine H.; Ross, James G.

2010-01-01

The authors examined whether paper-and-pencil and Web surveys administered in the school setting yield equivalent risk behavior prevalence estimates. Data were from a methods study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in spring 2008. Intact classes of 9th- or 10th-grade students were assigned randomly to complete a…

Social, Emotional, and Academic Competence among Children Who Have Had Contact with Child Protective Services: Prevalence and Stability Estimates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaffee, Sara R.; Gallop, Robert

2007-01-01

Objective: To estimate the prevalence and stability of social, emotional, and academic competence in a nationally representative sample of children involved with child protective services. Method: Children were assessed as part of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being. Children (N = 2,065) ranged in age from 8 to 16 years and were…

An empirical comparison of isolate-based and sample-based definitions of antimicrobial resistance and their effect on estimates of prevalence.

PubMed

Humphry, R W; Evans, J; Webster, C; Tongue, S C; Innocent, G T; Gunn, G J

2018-02-01

Antimicrobial resistance is primarily a problem in human medicine but there are unquantified links of transmission in both directions between animal and human populations. Quantitative assessment of the costs and benefits of reduced antimicrobial usage in livestock requires robust quantification of transmission of resistance between animals, the environment and the human population. This in turn requires appropriate measurement of resistance. To tackle this we selected two different methods for determining whether a sample is resistant - one based on screening a sample, the other on testing individual isolates. Our overall objective was to explore the differences arising from choice of measurement. A literature search demonstrated the widespread use of testing of individual isolates. The first aim of this study was to compare, quantitatively, sample level and isolate level screening. Cattle or sheep faecal samples (n=41) submitted for routine parasitology were tested for antimicrobial resistance in two ways: (1) "streak" direct culture onto plates containing the antimicrobial of interest; (2) determination of minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of 8-10 isolates per sample compared to published MIC thresholds. Two antibiotics (ampicillin and nalidixic acid) were tested. With ampicillin, direct culture resulted in more than double the number of resistant samples than the MIC method based on eight individual isolates. The second aim of this study was to demonstrate the utility of the observed relationship between these two measures of antimicrobial resistance to re-estimate the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance from a previous study, in which we had used "streak" cultures. Boot-strap methods were used to estimate the proportion of samples that would have tested resistant in the historic study, had we used the isolate-based MIC method instead. Our boot-strap results indicate that our estimates of prevalence of antimicrobial resistance would have been considerably lower in the historic study had the MIC method been used. Finally we conclude that there is no single way of defining a sample as resistant to an antimicrobial agent. The method used greatly affects the estimated prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in a sampled population of animals, thus potentially resulting in misleading results. Comparing methods on the same samples allows us to re-estimate the prevalence from other studies, had other methods for determining resistance been used. The results of this study highlight the importance of establishing what the most appropriate measure of antimicrobial resistance is, for the proposed purpose of the results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis in Terego county, northern Uganda, 1996: a lot quality assurance sampling survey.

PubMed

Hutin, Yvan J F; Legros, Dominique; Owini, Vincent; Brown, Vincent; Lee, Evan; Mbulamberi, Dawson; Paquet, Christophe

2004-04-01

We estimated the pre-intervention prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (Tbg) trypanosomiasis using the lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods in 14 parishes of Terego County in northern Uganda. A total of 826 participants were included in the survey sample in 1996. The prevalence of laboratory confirmed Tbg trypanosomiasis adjusted for parish population sizes was 2.2% (95% confidence interval =1.1-3.2). This estimate was consistent with the 1.1% period prevalence calculated on the basis of cases identified through passive and active screening in 1996-1999. Ranking of parishes in four categories according to LQAS analysis of the 1996 survey predicted the prevalences observed during the first round of active screening in the population in 1997-1998 (P < 0.0001, by chi-square test). Overall prevalence and ranking of parishes obtained with LQAS were validated by the results of the population screening, suggesting that these survey methods may be useful in the pre-intervention phase of sleeping sickness control programs.

Estimating effectiveness of HPV vaccination against HPV infection from post-vaccination data in the absence of baseline data.

PubMed

Vänskä, Simopekka; Söderlund-Strand, Anna; Uhnoo, Ingrid; Lehtinen, Matti; Dillner, Joakim

2018-04-28

HPV vaccination programs have been introduced in large parts of the world, but monitoring of effectiveness is not routinely performed. Many countries introduced vaccination programs without establishing the baseline of HPV prevalences. We developed and validated methods to estimate protective effectiveness (PE) of vaccination from the post-vaccination data alone using references, which are invariant under HPV vaccination. Type-specific HPV prevalence data for 15-39 year-old women were collected from the pre- and post-vaccination era in a region in southern Sweden. In a region in middle Sweden, where no baseline data had been collected, only post-vaccination data was collected. The age-specific baseline prevalence of vaccine HPV types (vtHPV, HPV 6, 11, 16, 18) were reconstructed as Beta distributions from post-vaccination data by applying the reference odds ratios between the target HPV type and non-vaccine-type HPV (nvtHPV) prevalences. Older non-vaccinated age cohorts and the southern Sweden region were used as the references. The methods for baseline reconstructions were validated by computing the Bhattacharyya coefficient (BC), a measure for divergence, between reconstructed and actual observed prevalences for vaccine HPV types in Southern Sweden, and in addition, for non-vaccine types in both regions. The PE estimates among 18-21 year-old women were validated by comparing the PE estimates that were based on the reconstructed baseline prevalences against the PE estimates based on the actual baseline prevalences. In Southern Sweden the PEs against vtHPV were 52.2% (95% CI: 44.9-58.5) using the reconstructed baseline and 49.6% (43.2-55.5) using the actual baseline, with high BC 82.7% between the reconstructed and actual baseline. In the middle Sweden region where baseline data was missing, the PE was estimated at 40.5% (31.6-48.5). Protective effectiveness of HPV vaccination can be estimated from post-vaccination data alone via reconstructing the baseline using non-vaccine HPV type data. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Utility of Capture-Recapture Methodology to Estimate Prevalence of Congenital Heart Defects Among Adolescents in 11 New York State Counties: 2008 to 2010.

PubMed

Akkaya-Hocagil, Tugba; Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Sommerhalter, Kristin; McGarry, Claire; Van Zutphen, Alissa

2017-11-01

Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are the most common birth defects in the United States, and the population of individuals living with CHDs is growing. Though CHD prevalence in infancy has been well characterized, better prevalence estimates among children and adolescents in the United States are still needed. We used capture-recapture methods to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents residing in 11 New York counties. The three data sources used for analysis included Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) hospital inpatient records, SPARCS outpatient records, and medical records provided by seven pediatric congenital cardiac clinics from 2008 to 2010. Bayesian log-linear models were fit using the R package Conting to account for dataset dependencies and heterogeneous catchability. A total of 2537 adolescent CHD cases were captured in our three data sources. Forty-four cases were identified in all data sources, 283 cases were identified in two of three data sources, and 2210 cases were identified in a single data source. The final model yielded an estimated total adolescent CHD population of 3845, indicating that 66% of the cases in the catchment area were identified in the case-identifying data sources. Based on 2010 Census estimates, we estimated adolescent CHD prevalence as 6.4 CHD cases per 1000 adolescents (95% confidence interval: 6.2-6.6). We used capture-recapture methodology with a population-based surveillance system in New York to estimate CHD prevalence among adolescents. Future research incorporating additional data sources may improve prevalence estimates in this population. Birth Defects Research 109:1423-1429, 2017.© 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevalence of purulent vaginal discharge in dairy herds depends on timing but not method of detection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A review of existing literature was conducted to determine the prevalence of purulent vaginal discharge (PVD) in dairy herds around the world and detection methodologies that influence prevalence estimates. Four databases (PubMed, Google Scholar, Web of Science, and Scopus) were queried with the sea...

Analysis of self-reported versus biomarker based smoking prevalence: methodology to compute corrected smoking prevalence rates.

PubMed

Jain, Ram B

2017-07-01

Prevalence of smoking is needed to estimate the need for future public health resources. To compute and compare smoking prevalence rates by using self-reported smoking statuses, two serum cotinine (SCOT) based biomarker methods, and one urinary 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL) based biomarker method. These estimates were then used to develop correction factors to be applicable to self-reported prevalences to arrive at corrected smoking prevalence rates. Data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 2007-2012 for those aged ≥20 years (N = 16826) were used. Self-reported prevalence rate for the total population computed as the weighted number of self-reported smokers divided by weighted number of all participants was 21.6% and 24% when computed by weighted number of self-reported smokers divided by the weighted number of self-reported smokers and nonsmokers. The corrected prevalence rate was found to be 25.8%. A 1% underestimate in smoking prevalence is equivalent to not being able to identify 2.2 million smokers in US in a given year. This underestimation, if not corrected, could lead to serious gap in the public health services available and needed to provide adequate preventive and corrective treatment to smokers.

Prevalence of systolic inter-arm differences in blood pressure for different primary care populations: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Clark, Christopher E; Taylor, Rod S; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

2016-11-01

Various prevalence figures have been reported for inter-arm differences in blood pressure (IAD); variation may be explained by differing population vascular risk and by measurement method. To review the literature to derive robust estimates of IAD prevalence relevant to community populations. Systematic review and meta-analysis. MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL were searched for cross-sectional studies likely to represent general or primary care populations, reporting prevalence of IAD and employing a simultaneous method of measurement. Using study-level data, pooled estimates of mean prevalence of systolic IADs were calculated and compared using a random effects model. Eighty IAD studies were identified. Sixteen met inclusion criteria: pooled estimates of prevalence for systolic IAD ≥10 mmHg were 11.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.1 to 13.6) in hypertension, 7.4% (95% CI = 5.8 to 9.2) in diabetes, and 3.6% (95% CI = 2.3 to 5.0) for a general adult population (P<0.001 for subgroup differences). Differences persisted for higher cut-off values. Prevalences were lower for East Asian than for Western populations and were overestimated by sequential measurement where this could be compared with simultaneous measurement within studies (relative risk for IAD: 2.9 [95% CI = 2.1 to 4.1]). Studies with higher mean absolute systolic pressures had higher prevalences for a systolic IAD ≥10 mmHg (P = 0.04). Prevalences of IADs rise in relation to underlying cardiovascular comorbidities of the population studied, and are overestimated threefold when sequential measurement is used. Population-specific variation in prevalences of IAD should be taken into account in delivering clinical care and in planning future studies. © British Journal of General Practice 2016.

Estimating Prevalence of Overweight or Obese Children and Adolescents in Small Geographic Areas Using Publicly Available Data

PubMed Central

Davila-Payan, Carlo; DeGuzman, Michael; Johnson, Kevin; Serban, Nicoleta

2015-01-01

Introduction Interventions for pediatric obesity can be geographically targeted if high-risk populations can be identified. We developed an approach to estimate the percentage of overweight or obese children aged 2 to 17 years in small geographic areas using publicly available data. We piloted our approach for Georgia. Methods We created a logistic regression model to estimate the individual probability of high body mass index (BMI), given data on the characteristics of the survey participants. We combined the regression model with a simulation to sample subpopulations and obtain prevalence estimates. The models used information from the 2001–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the 2010 Census, and the 2010 American Community Survey. We validated our results by comparing 1) estimates for adults in Georgia produced by using our approach with estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 2) estimates for children in Arkansas produced by using our approach with school examination data. We generated prevalence estimates for census tracts in Georgia and prioritized areas for interventions. Results In DeKalb County, the mean prevalence among census tracts varied from 27% to 40%. For adults, the median difference between our estimates and CDC estimates was 1.3 percentage points; for Arkansas children, the median difference between our estimates and examination-based estimates data was 1.7 percentage points. Conclusion Prevalence estimates for census tracts can be different from estimates for the county, so small-area estimates are crucial for designing effective interventions. Our approach validates well against external data, and it can be a relevant aid for planning local interventions for children. PMID:25764138

Proportion of Dermatitis Attributed to Work Exposures in the Working Population, United States, 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Ehrlich, Emily; Bunn, Terry; Kanotra, Sarojini; Fussman, Chris; Rosenman, Kenneth D.

2016-01-01

Background The US employer-based surveillance system for work-related health conditions underestimates the prevalence of work-related dermatitis. Objective The authors sought to utilize information from workers to improve the accuracy of prevalence estimates for work-related dermatitis. Methods Three state health departments included questions in the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey designed to ascertain the prevalence of dermatitis in the working population, as well as healthcare experiences, personal perceptions of work-relatedness, and job changes associated with dermatitis. Results The percentage of working respondents who reported receiving a clinician’s opinion that their dermatitis was work-related was between 3.8% and 10.2%. When patients’ perceptions were considered, the work-related dermatitis prevalence estimate increased to between 12.9% and 17.6%. Conclusions Including patients’ perceptions of work-relatedness produced a larger prevalence estimate for work-related dermatitis than the previously published estimate of 5.6%, which included only those cases of dermatitis attributed to work by healthcare professionals. PMID:24619601

Global prevalence of dementia: a Delphi consensus study

PubMed Central

Ferri, Cleusa P; Prince, Martin; Brayne, Carol; Brodaty, Henry; Fratiglioni, Laura; Ganguli, Mary; Hall, Kathleen; Hasegawa, Kazuo; Hendrie, Hugh; Huang, Yueqin; Jorm, Anthony; Mathers, Colin; Menezes, Paulo R; Rimmer, Elizabeth; Scazufca, Marcia

2010-01-01

Summary Background 100 years after the first description, Alzheimer's disease is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. We used the Delphi consensus method to determine dementia prevalence for each world region. Methods 12 international experts were provided with a systematic review of published studies on dementia and were asked to provide prevalence estimates for every WHO world region, for men and women combined, in 5-year age bands from 60 to 84 years, and for those aged 85 years and older. UN population estimates and projections were used to estimate numbers of people with dementia in 2001, 2020, and 2040. We estimated incidence rates from prevalence, remission, and mortality. Findings Evidence from well-planned, representative epidemiological surveys is scarce in many regions. We estimate that 24·3 million people have dementia today, with 4·6 million new cases of dementia every year (one new case every 7 seconds). The number of people affected will double every 20 years to 81·1 million by 2040. Most people with dementia live in developing countries (60% in 2001, rising to 71% by 2040). Rates of increase are not uniform; numbers in developed countries are forecast to increase by 100% between 2001 and 2040, but by more than 300% in India, China, and their south Asian and western Pacific neighbours. Interpretation We believe that the detailed estimates in this paper constitute the best currently available basis for policymaking, planning, and allocation of health and welfare resources. PMID:16360788

Prevalence and Frequency of Heterosexual Anal Intercourse Among Young People: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Owen, Branwen N; Brock, Patrick M; Butler, Ailsa R; Pickles, Michael; Brisson, Marc; Baggaley, Rebecca F; Boily, Marie-Claude

2015-07-01

We aim to assess if heterosexual anal intercourse (AI) is commonly practiced and how frequently it is practiced by young people. We searched PubMed for articles published 1975 to July 2014 reporting data on the proportion of young people (mean age <25) practicing heterosexual AI (AI prevalence) and on number of AI acts (AI frequency). Stratified random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to produce summary estimates and assess the influence of participant and study characteristics on AI prevalence. Eighty-three and thirteen of the 136 included articles reported data on lifetime AI prevalence and monthly AI frequency, respectively. Estimates were heterogenous. Overall summary estimates of lifetime AI prevalence were 22 % (95 % confidence interval 20-24) among sexually active young people, with no statistically significant differences by gender, continent or age. Prevalence increased significantly with confidentiality of interview method and, among males and in Europe, by survey year. Prevalence did not significantly differ by recall period. An estimated 3-24 % of all reported sex acts were AI. Reported heterosexual AI is common but variable among young people worldwide. To fully understand its impact on STI spread, more and better quality data on frequency of unprotected AI, and trends over time are required.

Methods for estimating comparable prevalence rates of food insecurity experienced by adults in 147 countries and areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nord, Mark; Cafiero, Carlo; Viviani, Sara

2016-11-01

Statistical methods based on item response theory are applied to experiential food insecurity survey data from 147 countries, areas, and territories to assess data quality and develop methods to estimate national prevalence rates of moderate and severe food insecurity at equal levels of severity across countries. Data were collected from nationally representative samples of 1,000 adults in each country. A Rasch-model-based scale was estimated for each country, and data were assessed for consistency with model assumptions. A global reference scale was calculated based on item parameters from all countries. Each country's scale was adjusted to the global standard, allowing for up to 3 of the 8 scale items to be considered unique in that country if their deviance from the global standard exceeded a set tolerance. With very few exceptions, data from all countries were sufficiently consistent with model assumptions to constitute reasonably reliable measures of food insecurity and were adjustable to the global standard with fair confidence. National prevalence rates of moderate-or-severe food insecurity assessed over a 12-month recall period ranged from 3 percent to 92 percent. The correlations of national prevalence rates with national income, health, and well-being indicators provide external validation of the food security measure.

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men through the network scale-up method in Japan.

PubMed

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods.

Prevalence of doping use in elite sports: a review of numbers and methods.

PubMed

de Hon, Olivier; Kuipers, Harm; van Bottenburg, Maarten

2015-01-01

The prevalence of doping in elite sports is relevant for all those involved in sports, particularly for evaluating anti-doping policy measures. Remarkably, few scientific articles have addressed this subject so far, and the last review dates back to 1997. As a consequence, the true prevalence of doping in elite sports is unknown. Even though it is virtually impossible to uncover the exact prevalence of a prohibited activity such as doping, various methods are available to uncover parts of this particular problem, which enables the circumvention (to a certain degree) of the issues of truthfulness, definition problems and the limits of pharmacological evidence. This review outlines the various methods that exist and presents the scarce data available in this area. It is concluded that a combination of questionnaires using the Randomised Response Technique and models of biological parameters is able to provide the statistical possibilities to reveal accurate estimates of this often undisclosed practice. Data gathered in this way yield an estimation of 14-39% of current adult elite athletes who intentionally used doping. These period prevalences have been found in specific sub-groups of elite athletes, and the available data suggest that the prevalence of doping is considerably different between sub-groups with varying types of sport, levels and nationalities. The above-mentioned figure of 14-39% is likely to be a more accurate reflection of the prevalence of intentional doping in elite sports than that provided by doping control test results (estimate of doping: 1-2% annually) or questionnaire-based research (estimations between 1 and 70% depending on sport, level and exact definitions of intent and doping). In the future, analytical science may play a more important role in this topic if it may become feasible to detect very low concentrations of prohibited substances in sewage systems downstream of major sporting events. However, it is clear that current doping control test results show a distinct underestimation of true doping prevalence. It does not seem feasible to distil better estimates of the prevalence of doping based on performance indicators or ego documents because of the various existing effects that influence athletic performance. Such information can only be used as extra information to augment the accuracy of prevalence rates that have been found by using other techniques. True doping prevalence studies have been scarce in elite sports so far. With the correct application of the available scientific methods, preferably using harmonised definitions of the terms 'doping' and 'elite sports', more information on this topic may be gathered in a relatively short time. This would assist anti-doping professionals in the future in order to evaluate the effects of possible anti-doping measures, and better anti-doping policies would serve athletes who compete without doping. The existing anti-doping measures seriously impact the lives of elite athletes and their immediate entourage, which imposes a moral burden to evaluate these measures in the best possible way.

Challenges of Estimating the Annual Caseload of Severe Acute Malnutrition: The Case of Niger

PubMed Central

Hallarou, Mahaman; Gérard, Jean-Christophe; Donnen, Philippe; Macq, Jean

2016-01-01

Introduction Reliable prospective estimates of annual severe acute malnutrition (SAM) caseloads for treatment are needed for policy decisions and planning of quality services in the context of competing public health priorities and limited resources. This paper compares the reliability of SAM caseloads of children 6–59 months of age in Niger estimated from prevalence at the start of the year and counted from incidence at the end of the year. Methods Secondary data from two health districts for 2012 and the country overall for 2013 were used to calculate annual caseload of SAM. Prevalence and coverage were extracted from survey reports, and incidence from weekly surveillance systems. Results The prospective caseload estimate derived from prevalence and duration of illness underestimated the true burden. Similar incidence was derived from two weekly surveillance systems, but differed from that obtained from the monthly system. Incidence conversion factors were two to five times higher than recommended. Discussion Obtaining reliable prospective caseloads was challenging because prevalence is unsuitable for estimating incidence of SAM. Different SAM indicators identified different SAM populations, and duration of illness, expected contact coverage and population figures were inaccurate. The quality of primary data measurement, recording and reporting affected incidence numbers from surveillance. Coverage estimated in population surveys was rarely available, and coverage obtained by comparing admissions with prospective caseload estimates was unrealistic or impractical. Conclusions Caseload estimates derived from prevalence are unreliable and should be used with caution. Policy and service decisions that depend on these numbers may weaken performance of service delivery. Niger may improve SAM surveillance by simplifying and improving primary data collection and methods using innovative information technologies for single data entry at the first contact with the health system. Lessons may be relevant for countries with a high burden of SAM, including for targeted emergency responses. PMID:27606677

Collation and comparison of multi-practice audit data: prevalence and treatment of known diabetes mellitus.

PubMed Central

Khunti, K; Goyder, E; Baker, R

1999-01-01

BACKGROUND: Different methods have been used to determine the prevalence and treatment of diabetes. Despite the large number of studies, previous estimations of prevalence and treatment have been carried out on relatively small numbers of patients, and then in only a few practices in single geographical regions. AIM: To investigate the feasibility of collating data from multi-practice audits organized by primary care audit groups in order to estimate the prevalence and treatment of patients with known diabetes, and to discuss the methodological issues and reasons for variation. METHOD: A postal questionnaire survey of all primary care audit groups in England and Wales that had conducted a multi-practice audit of diabetes between 1993-1995. Prevalence rates and patterns of diabetic care were compared with other community-based surveys of known diabetes from 1986-1996 identified on MEDLINE. RESULTS: Twenty-five (43%) audit groups supplied data from multi-practice audits of diabetes. Seven (28%) multi-practice audits involving 259 practices fulfilled the inclusion criteria for prevalence estimation. The overall prevalence of diabetes based on a population of 1,475,512 patients was 1.46% (range between audit groups = 1.18% to 1.66%; chi 2 = 308; df = 6; P < 0.0001). Male to female ratio was 1.15:1. Treatment of diabetes could be ascertained for 10 (40%) audit groups comprising 319 practices. Of these, 23.4% (range = 16.5%-27.4%) were controlled by diet, 48.5% (range = 43.6%-55.8%) were prescribed oral hypoglycaemic drugs, and 28.2% (range = 25.0%-32.4%) were treated with insulin. There were significant variations between audit groups in treatment pattern (chi 2 = 250; df = 18; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Prevalence and treatment rates of diabetes and other chronic diseases can be assessed and compared using data from multi-practice audits. Collation of audit data could improve the precision of quantitative estimates of health status in populations. A standard method of data recording and collection may provide a new approach that could considerably improve our ability to monitor disease and its management. PMID:10736888

Report summary Prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada (2016): a report by the Alzheimer Society of Canada.

PubMed

2016-10-01

Dementia prevalence estimates vary among population-based studies, depending on the definitions of dementia, methodologies and data sources and types of costs they use. A common approach is needed to avoid confusion and increase public and stakeholder confidence in the estimates. Since 1994, five major studies have yielded widely differing estimates of dementia prevalence and monetary costs of dementia in Canada. These studies variously estimated the prevalence of dementia for the year 2011 as low as 340 170 and as high as 747 000. The main reason for this difference was that mild cognitive impairment (MCI) was not consistently included in the projections. The estimated monetary costs of dementia for the same year also varied, from $910 million to $33 billion. This discrepancy is largely due to three factors: (1) the lack of agreed-upon methods for estimating financial costs; (2) the unavailability of prevalence estimates for the various stages of dementia (mild, moderate and severe), which directly affect the amount of money spent; and (3) the absence of tools to measure direct, indirect and intangible costs more accurately. Given the increasing challenges of dementia in Canada and around the globe, reconciling these differences is critical for developing standards to generate reliable information for public consumption and to shape public policy and service development.

Bootstrap imputation with a disease probability model minimized bias from misclassification due to administrative database codes.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2017-04-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative databases cause bias due to misclassification of patient disease status. It is unclear which methods minimize this bias. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 50,074 hospitalized patients. The true prevalence of severe renal failure and its association with covariates were measured. These were compared to results for which renal failure status was determined using surrogate measures including the following: (1) diagnostic codes; (2) categorization of probability estimates of renal failure determined from a previously validated model; or (3) bootstrap methods imputation of disease status using model-derived probability estimates. Bias in estimates of severe renal failure prevalence and its association with covariates were minimal when bootstrap methods were used to impute renal failure status from model-based probability estimates. In contrast, biases were extensive when renal failure status was determined using codes or methods in which model-based condition probability was categorized. Bias due to misclassification from inaccurate diagnostic codes can be minimized using bootstrap methods to impute condition status using multivariable model-derived probability estimates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

PubMed Central

Petróczi, Andrea; Mazanov, Jason; Nepusz, Tamás; Backhouse, Susan H; Naughton, Declan P

2008-01-01

Background The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use. Hypothesis It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of the doping behaviour of that person, in lieu of self-reports. Testing the hypothesis Over- or underestimation is calculated from investigating known groups (i.e. users vs. non-users), using a short questionnaire, and a known prevalence rate from official reports or sample evidence. It is proposed that sample evidence from self-reported behaviour should be verified using objective biochemical analyses. In order to find proofs of concept for the existence of false consensus, a pilot study was conducted. Data were collected among competitive UK student-athletes (n = 124) using a web-based anonymous questionnaire. User (n = 9) vs. non-user (n = 76) groups were established using self-reported information on doping use and intention to use PEDs in hypothetical situations. Observed differences in the mean estimation of doping made by the user group exceeded the estimation made by the non-user group (35.11% vs. 15.34% for general doping and 34.25% vs. 26.30% in hypothetical situations, respectively), thus providing preliminary evidence in support of the FCE concept in relation to doping. Implications of the hypothesis The presence of the FCE in estimating doping prevalence or behaviour in others suggests that the FCE based approach may be an avenue for developing an indirect self-report mechanism for PED use behaviour. The method may be successfully adapted to the estimation of prevalence of behaviours where direct self-reports are assumed to be distorted by socially desirable responding. Thus this method can enhance available information on socially undesirable, health compromising behaviour (i.e. PED use) for policy makers and healthcare professionals. The importance of the method lies in its usefulness in epidemiological studies, not in individual assessments. PMID:18775068

Malaria among gold miners in southern Pará, Brazil: estimates of determinants and individual costs.

PubMed

Vosti, S A

1990-01-01

As malaria grows more prevalent in the Amazon frontier despite increased expenditures by disease control authorities, national and regional tropical disease control strategies are being called into question. The current crisis involving traditional control/eradication methods has broadened the search for feasible and effective malaria control strategies--a search that necessarily includes an investigation of the roles of a series of individual and community-level socioeconomic characteristics in determining malaria prevalence rates, and the proper methods of estimating these links. In addition, social scientists and policy makers alike know very little about the economic costs associated with malarial infections. In this paper, I use survey data from several Brazilian gold mining areas to (a) test the general reliability of malaria-related questionnaire response data, and suggest categorization methods to minimize the statistical influence of exaggerated responses, (b) estimate three statistical models aimed at detecting the socioeconomic determinants of individual malaria prevalence rates, and (c) calculate estimates of the average cost of a single bout of malaria. The results support the general reliability of survey response data gathered in conjunction with malaria research. Once the effects of vector exposure were controlled for, individual socioeconomic characteristics were only weakly linked to malaria prevalence rates in these very special miners' communities. Moreover, the socioeconomic and exposure links that were significant did not depend on the measure of malaria adopted. Finally, individual costs associated with malarial infections were found to be a significant portion of miners' incomes.

Estimating HIV incidence among key affected populations in China from serial cross-sectional surveys in 2010–2014

PubMed Central

Cui, Yan; Guo, Wei; Li, Dongmin; Wang, Liyan; Shi, Cynthia X; Brookmeyer, Ron; Detels, Roger; Ge, Lin; Ding, Zhengwei; Wu, Zunyou

2016-01-01

Introduction HIV incidence is an important measure for monitoring the development of the epidemic, but it is difficult to ascertain. We combined serial HIV prevalence and mortality data to estimate HIV incidence among key affected populations (KAPs) in China. Methods Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted among KAPs from 2010 to 2014. Trends in HIV prevalence were assessed by the Cochran-Armitage test, adjusted by risk group. HIV incidence was estimated from a mathematical model that describes the relationship between changes in HIV incidence with HIV prevalence and mortality. Results The crude HIV prevalence for the survey samples remained stable at 1.1 to 1.2% from 2010 to 2014. Among drug users (DUs), HIV prevalence declined from 4.48 to 3.29% (p<0.0001), and among men who have sex with men (MSM), HIV prevalence increased from 5.73 to 7.75% (p<0.0001). Changes in HIV prevalence among female sex workers (FSWs) and male patients of sexually transmitted disease clinics were more modest but remained statistically significant (all p<0.0001). The MSM population had the highest incidence estimates at 0.74% in 2011, 0.59% in 2012, 0.57% in 2013 and 0.53% in 2014. Estimates of the annual incidence for DUs and FSWs were very low and may not be reliable. Conclusions Serial cross-sectional prevalence data from representative samples may be another approach to construct approximate estimates of national HIV incidence among key populations. We observed that the MSM population had the highest incidence for HIV among high-risk groups in China, and we suggest that interventions targeting MSM are urgently needed to curb the growing HIV epidemic. PMID:26989062

A systematic review of the incidence and prevalence of comorbidity in multiple sclerosis: Overview

PubMed Central

Cohen, Jeffrey; Stuve, Olaf; Trojano, Maria; Sørensen, Per Soelberg; Reingold, Stephen; Cutter, Gary; Reider, Nadia

2015-01-01

Background: Comorbidity is an area of increasing interest in multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective: The objective of this review is to estimate the incidence and prevalence of comorbidity in people with MS and assess the quality of included studies. Methods: We searched the PubMed, SCOPUS, EMBASE and Web of Knowledge databases, conference proceedings, and reference lists of retrieved articles. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts. One reviewer abstracted data using a standardized form and the abstraction was verified by a second reviewer. We assessed study quality using a standardized approach. We quantitatively assessed population-based studies using the I2 statistic, and conducted random-effects meta-analyses. Results: We included 249 articles. Study designs were variable with respect to source populations, case definitions, methods of ascertainment and approaches to reporting findings. Prevalence was reported more frequently than incidence; estimates for prevalence and incidence varied substantially for all conditions. Heterogeneity was high. Conclusion: This review highlights substantial gaps in the epidemiological knowledge of comorbidity in MS worldwide. Little is known about comorbidity in Central or South America, Asia or Africa. Findings in North America and Europe are inconsistent. Future studies should report age-, sex- and ethnicity-specific estimates of incidence and prevalence, and standardize findings to a common population. PMID:25623244

[The current prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection among teenagers and young asymptomatic Chilean women justifies the periodic surveillance].

PubMed

Zamboni, Milena; Ralph, Constanza; García, Patricia; Cuello, Mauricio

2016-12-01

Chlamydia trachomatis infection constitutes the most common sexual transmitted disease (STD) among young women. International studies demonstrate that prevalence changes over time and also according to places. To estimate the prevalence of this infection among asymptomatic Chilean women (15 to 24 years old) and correlating with risk factor occurrence. Transversal cohort study to identify C. trachomatis infection through a diagnostic kit designed to detect and amplify cryptic plasmid DNA by quantitative PCR from endocervical sample. 181 women were screened during the period of study. The overall prevalence estimate was 5.5% and founding significant estimate variations (0% to 14.6%) between recruiting centers. There was difference in number of sexual partners (4.1 vs 2.5; p<0.05) between positive and negative women. No difference was observed in age of first coitus, STD history, the use of barrier method or socioeconomic level. However, the probability of being carrier increases as greater is the number of sexual partners, especially when the use of barrier method is low. The latest is not related to the socioeconomic level. One of 12 to 18 women at this age range will have asymptomatic infection. The current prevalence and its variability substantiates the C. trachomatis screening and periodic surveillance.

CLASSIFICATION OF IRANIAN NURSES ACCORDING TO THEIR MENTAL HEALTH OUTCOMES USING GHQ-12 QUESTIONNAIRE: A COMPARISON BETWEEN LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS AND K-MEANS CLUSTERING WITH TRADITIONAL SCORING METHOD

PubMed Central

Jamali, Jamshid; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi

2015-01-01

Background: Nurses constitute the most providers of health care systems. Their mental health can affect the quality of services and patients’ satisfaction. General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) is a general screening tool used to detect mental disorders. Scoring method and determining thresholds for this questionnaire are debatable and the cut-off points can vary from sample to sample. This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders among Iranian nurses using GHQ-12 and also compare Latent Class Analysis (LCA) and K-means clustering with traditional scoring method. Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out in Fars and Bushehr provinces of southern Iran in 2014. Participants were 771 Iranian nurses, who filled out the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Traditional scoring method, LCA and K-means were used to estimate the prevalence of mental disorder among Iranian nurses. Cohen’s kappa statistic was applied to assess the agreement between the LCA and K-means with traditional scoring method of GHQ-12. Results: The nurses with mental disorder by scoring method, LCA and K-mean were 36.3% (n=280), 32.2% (n=248), and 26.5% (n=204), respectively. LCA and logistic regression revealed that the prevalence of mental disorder in females was significantly higher than males. Conclusion: Mental disorder in nurses was in a medium level compared to other people living in Iran. There was a little difference between prevalence of mental disorder estimated by scoring method, K-means and LCA. According to the advantages of LCA than K-means and different results in scoring method, we suggest LCA for classification of Iranian nurses according to their mental health outcomes using GHQ-12 questionnaire PMID:26622202

CLASSIFICATION OF IRANIAN NURSES ACCORDING TO THEIR MENTAL HEALTH OUTCOMES USING GHQ-12 QUESTIONNAIRE: A COMPARISON BETWEEN LATENT CLASS ANALYSIS AND K-MEANS CLUSTERING WITH TRADITIONAL SCORING METHOD.

PubMed

Jamali, Jamshid; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi

2015-10-01

Nurses constitute the most providers of health care systems. Their mental health can affect the quality of services and patients' satisfaction. General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) is a general screening tool used to detect mental disorders. Scoring method and determining thresholds for this questionnaire are debatable and the cut-off points can vary from sample to sample. This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence of mental disorders among Iranian nurses using GHQ-12 and also compare Latent Class Analysis (LCA) and K-means clustering with traditional scoring method. A cross-sectional study was carried out in Fars and Bushehr provinces of southern Iran in 2014. Participants were 771 Iranian nurses, who filled out the GHQ-12 questionnaire. Traditional scoring method, LCA and K-means were used to estimate the prevalence of mental disorder among Iranian nurses. Cohen's kappa statistic was applied to assess the agreement between the LCA and K-means with traditional scoring method of GHQ-12. The nurses with mental disorder by scoring method, LCA and K-mean were 36.3% (n=280), 32.2% (n=248), and 26.5% (n=204), respectively. LCA and logistic regression revealed that the prevalence of mental disorder in females was significantly higher than males. Mental disorder in nurses was in a medium level compared to other people living in Iran. There was a little difference between prevalence of mental disorder estimated by scoring method, K-means and LCA. According to the advantages of LCA than K-means and different results in scoring method, we suggest LCA for classification of Iranian nurses according to their mental health outcomes using GHQ-12 questionnaire.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

PubMed Central

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

Prevalence of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Associated Features among Children in France

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lecendreux, Michel; Konofal, Eric; Faraone, Stephen V.

2011-01-01

Background: Earlier studies point to the prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) to be similar around the world. There is, however, a wide variety in estimates. The prevalence of ADHD in youth has never been examined in France. Method: Starting with 18 million telephone numbers, 7,912 numbers are randomly selected. Among the…

Prevalence and Characteristics of Children with Mild Intellectual Disability in a French County

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

David, M.; Dieterich, K.; Billette de Villemeur, A.; Jouk, P.-S.; Counillon, J.; Larroque, B.; Bloch, J.; Cans, C.

2014-01-01

Background: Studies conducted on mild intellectual disability (MID) in children are infrequent and the prevalence rates vary widely. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of MID in children in a French county (Isère), to describe the clinical signs and associated comorbidities, and to specify the aetiologies of this disability. Methods: The…

Prevalence of peptic ulcer in Iran: Systematic review and meta-analysis methods

PubMed Central

Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Abangah, Ghobad; Kalvandi, Gholamreza; Tavan, Hamed; Aazami, Sanaz

2018-01-01

Background: Peptic ulcer is a prevalent problem and symptoms include epigastria pain and heartburn. This study aimed at investigating the prevalence and causes of peptic ulcers in Iran using systematic review and meta-analysis. Materials and Methods: Eleven Iranian papers published from 2002 to 2016 are selected using valid keywords in the SID, Goggle scholar, PubMed and Elsevier databases. Results of studies pooled using random effects model in meta-analysis. The heterogeneity of the sample was checked using Q test and I2 index. Results: Total sample size in this study consist of 1335 individuals with peptic ulcer (121 samples per article). The prevalence of peptic ulcers was estimated 34% (95% CI= 0.25 – 0.43). The prevalence of peptic ulcers was 30% and 60% in woman and man respectively. The highest environmental factor (cigarette) has been addressed in 30% (95% CI= 0.23-0.37) of patients. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori was estimated in 62% (95% CI= 0.49-0.75) of patients. Conclusion: The results of this study show that prevalence of peptic ulcers in Iran (34%) is higher that worldwide rate (6% to 15%). There was an increasing trend in the prevalence of peptic ulcer over a decade from 2002 to 2016. PMID:29456565

Point prevalence and incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in captive elephants in the United States of America.

PubMed

Feldman, Melissa; Isaza, Ramiro; Prins, Cindy; Hernandez, Jorge

2013-01-01

Captive elephants infected with tuberculosis are implicated as an occupational source of zoonotic tuberculosis. However, accurate estimates of prevalence and incidence of elephant tuberculosis from well-defined captive populations are lacking in the literature. Studies published in recent years contain a wide range of prevalence estimates calculated from summary data. Incidence estimates of elephant tuberculosis in captive elephants are not available. This study estimated the annual point prevalence, annual incidence, cumulative incidence, and incidence density of tuberculosis in captive elephants within the USA during the past 52 years. We combined existing elephant census records from captive elephants in the USA with tuberculosis culture results obtained from trunk washes or at necropsy. This data set included 15 years where each elephant was screened annually. Between 1960 and 1996, the annual point prevalence of tuberculosis complex mycobacteria for both species was 0. From 1997 through 2011, the median point prevalence within the Asian elephant population was 5.1%, with a range from 0.3% to 6.7%. The incidence density was 9.7 cases/1000 elephant years (95% CI: 7.0-13.4). In contrast, the annual point prevalence during the same time period within the African elephant population remained 0 and the incidence density was 1.5 cases/1000 elephant years (95% CI: 0.7-4.0). The apparent increase in new cases noted after 1996 resulted from a combination of both index cases and the initiation of mandatory annual tuberculosis screening in 1997 for all the elephants. This study found lower annual point prevalence estimates than previously reported in the literature. These discrepancies in prevalence estimates are primarily due to differences in terminology and calculation methods. Using the same intensive testing regime, the incidence of tuberculosis differed significantly between Asian and African elephants. Accurate and species specific knowledge of prevalence and incidence will inform our efforts to mitigate occupational risks associated with captive elephants in the USA.

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

PubMed

Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Johnson, Wesley O

2004-07-30

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global and Regional Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 1 Infections in 2012

PubMed Central

Looker, Katharine J.; Magaret, Amalia S.; May, Margaret T.; Turner, Katherine M. E.; Vickerman, Peter; Gottlieb, Sami L.; Newman, Lori M.

2015-01-01

Background Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) commonly causes orolabial ulcers, while HSV-2 commonly causes genital ulcers. However, HSV-1 is an increasing cause of genital infection. Previously, the World Health Organization estimated the global burden of HSV-2 for 2003 and for 2012. The global burden of HSV-1 has not been estimated. Methods We fitted a constant-incidence model to pooled HSV-1 prevalence data from literature searches for 6 World Health Organization regions and used 2012 population data to derive global numbers of 0-49-year-olds with prevalent and incident HSV-1 infection. To estimate genital HSV-1, we applied values for the proportion of incident infections that are genital. Findings We estimated that 3709 million people (range: 3440–3878 million) aged 0–49 years had prevalent HSV-1 infection in 2012 (67%), with highest prevalence in Africa, South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Assuming 50% of incident infections among 15-49-year-olds are genital, an estimated 140 million (range: 67–212 million) people had prevalent genital HSV-1 infection, most of which occurred in the Americas, Europe and Western Pacific. Conclusions The global burden of HSV-1 infection is huge. Genital HSV-1 burden can be substantial but varies widely by region. Future control efforts, including development of HSV vaccines, should consider the epidemiology of HSV-1 in addition to HSV-2, and especially the relative contribution of HSV-1 to genital infection. PMID:26510007

Neighborhood Sociodemographic Predictors of Serious Emotional Disturbance (SED) in Schools: Demonstrating a Small Area Estimation Method in the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS-A) Adolescent Supplement

PubMed Central

Alegría, Margarita; Kessler, Ronald C.; McLaughlin, Katie A.; Gruber, Michael J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Zaslavsky, Alan M.

2014-01-01

We evaluate the precision of a model estimating school prevalence of SED using a small area estimation method based on readily-available predictors from area-level census block data and school principal questionnaires. Adolescents at 314 schools participated in the National Comorbidity Supplement, a national survey of DSM-IV disorders among adolescents. A multilevel model indicated that predictors accounted for under half of the variance in school-level SED and even less when considering block-group predictors or principal report alone. While Census measures and principal questionnaires are significant predictors of individual-level SED, associations are too weak to generate precise school-level predictions of SED prevalence. PMID:24740174

Scleroderma prevalence: demographic variations in a population-based sample.

PubMed

Bernatsky, S; Joseph, L; Pineau, C A; Belisle, P; Hudson, M; Clarke, A E

2009-03-15

To estimate the prevalence of systemic sclerosis (SSc) using population-based administrative data, and to assess the sensitivity of case ascertainment approaches. We ascertained SSc cases from Quebec physician billing and hospitalization databases (covering approximately 7.5 million individuals). Three case definition algorithms were compared, and statistical methods accounting for imperfect case ascertainment were used to estimate SSc prevalence and case ascertainment sensitivity. A hierarchical Bayesian latent class regression model that accounted for possible between-test dependence conditional on disease status estimated the effect of patient characteristics on SSc prevalence and the sensitivity of the 3 ascertainment algorithms. Accounting for error inherent in both the billing and the hospitalization data, we estimated SSc prevalence in 2003 at 74.4 cases per 100,000 women (95% credible interval [95% CrI] 69.3-79.7) and 13.3 cases per 100,000 men (95% CrI 11.1-16.1). Prevalence was higher for older individuals, particularly in urban women (161.2 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 148.6-175.0). Prevalence was lowest in young men (in rural areas, as low as 2.8 cases per 100,000, 95% CrI 1.4-4.8). In general, no single algorithm was very sensitive, with point estimates for sensitivity ranging from 20-73%. We found marked differences in SSc prevalence according to age, sex, and region. In general, no single case ascertainment approach was very sensitive for SSc. Therefore, using data from multiple sources, with adjustment for the imperfect nature of each, is an important strategy in population-based studies of SSc and similar conditions.

Estimating time-dependent ROC curves using data under prevalent sampling.

PubMed

Li, Shanshan

2017-04-15

Prevalent sampling is frequently a convenient and economical sampling technique for the collection of time-to-event data and thus is commonly used in studies of the natural history of a disease. However, it is biased by design because it tends to recruit individuals with longer survival times. This paper considers estimation of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves when data are collected under prevalent sampling. To correct the sampling bias, we develop both nonparametric and semiparametric estimators using extended risk sets and the inverse probability weighting techniques. The proposed estimators are consistent and converge to Gaussian processes, while substantial bias may arise if standard estimators for right-censored data are used. To illustrate our method, we analyze data from an ovarian cancer study and estimate receiver operating characteristic curves that assess the accuracy of the composite markers in distinguishing subjects who died within 3-5 years from subjects who remained alive. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Monitoring the size and protagonists of the drug market: combining supply and demand data sources and estimates.

PubMed

Rossi, Carla

2013-06-01

The size of the illicit drug market is an important indicator to assess the impact on society of an important part of the illegal economy and to evaluate drug policy and law enforcement interventions. The extent of illicit drug use and of the drug market can essentially only be estimated by indirect methods based on indirect measures and on data from various sources, as administrative data sets and surveys. The combined use of several methodologies and data sets allows to reduce biases and inaccuracies of estimates obtained on the basis of each of them separately. This approach has been applied to Italian data. The estimation methods applied are capture-recapture methods with latent heterogeneity and multiplier methods. Several data sets have been used, both administrative and survey data sets. First, the retail dealer prevalence has been estimated on the basis of administrative data, then the user prevalence by multiplier methods. Using information about behaviour of dealers and consumers from survey data, the average amount of a substance used or sold and the average unit cost have been estimated and allow estimating the size of the drug market. The estimates have been obtained using a supply-side approach and a demand-side approach and have been compared. These results are in turn used for estimating the interception rate for the different substances in term of the value of the substance seized with respect to the total value of the substance to be sold at retail prices.

Estimated prevalence of dementia based on analysis of drug databases in the Region of Madrid (Spain).

PubMed

de Hoyos-Alonso, M C; Bonis, J; Tapias-Merino, E; Castell, M V; Otero, A

2016-01-01

The progressive rise in dementia prevalence increases the need for rapid methods that complement population-based prevalence studies. To estimate the prevalence of dementia in the population aged 65 and older based on use of cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. Descriptive study of use and prescription of cholinesterase inhibitors and/or memantine in 2011 according to 2 databases: Farm@drid (pharmacy billing records for the Region of Madrid) and BIFAP (database for pharmacoepidemiology research in primary care, with diagnosis and prescription records). We tested the comparability of drug use results from each database using the chi-square test and prevalence ratios. The prevalence of dementia in Madrid was estimated based on the dose per 100 inhabitants/day, adjusting the result for data obtained from BIFAP on combination treatment in the general population (0.37%) and the percentage of dementia patients undergoing treatment (41.13%). Cholinesterase inhibitors and memantine were taken by 2.08% and 0.72% of Madrid residents aged 65 and older was respectively. Both databases displayed similar results for use of these drugs. The estimated prevalence of dementia in individuals aged 65 and older is 5.91% (95% CI%, 5.85-5.95) (52 287 people), and it is higher in women (7.16%) than in men (4.00%). The estimated prevalence of dementia is similar to that found in population-based studies. Analysing consumption of specific dementia drugs can be a reliable and inexpensive means of updating prevalence data periodically and helping rationalise healthcare resources. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease: applications to a cohort assembled from electronic health records.

PubMed

Cheung, Li C; Pan, Qing; Hyun, Noorie; Schiffman, Mark; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Lorey, Thomas; Katki, Hormuzd A

2017-09-30

For cost-effectiveness and efficiency, many large-scale general-purpose cohort studies are being assembled within large health-care providers who use electronic health records. Two key features of such data are that incident disease is interval-censored between irregular visits and there can be pre-existing (prevalent) disease. Because prevalent disease is not always immediately diagnosed, some disease diagnosed at later visits are actually undiagnosed prevalent disease. We consider prevalent disease as a point mass at time zero for clinical applications where there is no interest in time of prevalent disease onset. We demonstrate that the naive Kaplan-Meier cumulative risk estimator underestimates risks at early time points and overestimates later risks. We propose a general family of mixture models for undiagnosed prevalent disease and interval-censored incident disease that we call prevalence-incidence models. Parameters for parametric prevalence-incidence models, such as the logistic regression and Weibull survival (logistic-Weibull) model, are estimated by direct likelihood maximization or by EM algorithm. Non-parametric methods are proposed to calculate cumulative risks for cases without covariates. We compare naive Kaplan-Meier, logistic-Weibull, and non-parametric estimates of cumulative risk in the cervical cancer screening program at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Kaplan-Meier provided poor estimates while the logistic-Weibull model was a close fit to the non-parametric. Our findings support our use of logistic-Weibull models to develop the risk estimates that underlie current US risk-based cervical cancer screening guidelines. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Working postures of dental students: ergonomic analysis using the Ovako Working Analysis System and rapid upper limb assessment.

PubMed

Petromilli Nordi Sasso Garcia, Patrícia; Polli, Gabriela Scatimburgo; Campos, Juliana Alvares Duarte Bonini

2013-01-01

As dentistry is a profession that demands a manipulative precision of hand movements, musculoskeletal disorders are among the most common occupational diseases. This study estimated the risk of musculoskeletal disorders developing in dental students using the Ovako Working Analysis System (OWAS) and Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) methods, and estimated the diagnostic agreement between the 2 methods. Students (n = 75), enrolled in the final undergraduate year at the Araraquara School of Dentistry--UNESP--were studied. Photographs were taken of students while performing diverse clinical procedures (n = 283) using a digital camera, which were assessed using OWAS and RULA. A risk score was attributed following each procedure performed by the student. The prevalence of the risk of musculoskeletal disorders was estimated per point and for a 95% CI. To assess the agreement between the 2 methods, Kappa statistics with linear weighting were used. The level of significance adopted was 5%. There was a high prevalence of the mean score for risk of musculoskeletal disorders in the dental students evaluated according to the OWAS method (p = 97.88%; 95% CI: 96.20-99.56%), and a high prevalence of the high score (p = 40.6; 95% CI: 34.9-46.4%) and extremely high risk (p = 59.4%; 95% CI: 53.6-65.1%) according to RULA method Null agreement was verified (k = 0) in the risk di agnosis of the tested methods. The risk of musculoskeletal disorders in dental students estimated by the OWAS method was medium, whereas the same risk by the RULA method was extremely high. There was no diagnostic agreement between the OWAS and RULA methods.

The global prevalence of common mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis 1980–2013

PubMed Central

Steel, Zachary; Marnane, Claire; Iranpour, Changiz; Chey, Tien; Jackson, John W; Patel, Vikram; Silove, Derrick

2014-01-01

Background: Since the introduction of specified diagnostic criteria for mental disorders in the 1970s, there has been a rapid expansion in the number of large-scale mental health surveys providing population estimates of the combined prevalence of common mental disorders (most commonly involving mood, anxiety and substance use disorders). In this study we undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of this literature. Methods: We applied an optimized search strategy across the Medline, PsycINFO, EMBASE and PubMed databases, supplemented by hand searching to identify relevant surveys. We identified 174 surveys across 63 countries providing period prevalence estimates (155 surveys) and lifetime prevalence estimates (85 surveys). Random effects meta-analysis was undertaken on logit-transformed prevalence rates to calculate pooled prevalence estimates, stratified according to methodological and substantive groupings. Results: Pooling across all studies, approximately 1 in 5 respondents (17.6%, 95% confidence interval:16.3–18.9%) were identified as meeting criteria for a common mental disorder during the 12-months preceding assessment; 29.2% (25.9–32.6%) of respondents were identified as having experienced a common mental disorder at some time during their lifetimes. A consistent gender effect in the prevalence of common mental disorder was evident; women having higher rates of mood (7.3%:4.0%) and anxiety (8.7%:4.3%) disorders during the previous 12 months and men having higher rates of substance use disorders (2.0%:7.5%), with a similar pattern for lifetime prevalence. There was also evidence of consistent regional variation in the prevalence of common mental disorder. Countries within North and South East Asia in particular displayed consistently lower one-year and lifetime prevalence estimates than other regions. One-year prevalence rates were also low among Sub-Saharan-Africa, whereas English speaking counties returned the highest lifetime prevalence estimates. Conclusions: Despite a substantial degree of inter-survey heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, the findings confirm that common mental disorders are highly prevalent globally, affecting people across all regions of the world. This research provides an important resource for modelling population needs based on global regional estimates of mental disorder. The reasons for regional variation in mental disorder require further investigation. PMID:24648481

Model-based inference for small area estimation with sampling weights

PubMed Central

Vandendijck, Y.; Faes, C.; Kirby, R.S.; Lawson, A.; Hens, N.

2017-01-01

Obtaining reliable estimates about health outcomes for areas or domains where only few to no samples are available is the goal of small area estimation (SAE). Often, we rely on health surveys to obtain information about health outcomes. Such surveys are often characterised by a complex design, stratification, and unequal sampling weights as common features. Hierarchical Bayesian models are well recognised in SAE as a spatial smoothing method, but often ignore the sampling weights that reflect the complex sampling design. In this paper, we focus on data obtained from a health survey where the sampling weights of the sampled individuals are the only information available about the design. We develop a predictive model-based approach to estimate the prevalence of a binary outcome for both the sampled and non-sampled individuals, using hierarchical Bayesian models that take into account the sampling weights. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of our proposed method with other established methods. The results indicate that our proposed method achieves great reductions in mean squared error when compared with standard approaches. It performs equally well or better when compared with more elaborate methods when there is a relationship between the responses and the sampling weights. The proposed method is applied to estimate asthma prevalence across districts. PMID:28989860

The Effect of Low Survey Response Rates on Estimates of Alcohol Consumption in a General Population Survey

PubMed Central

Meiklejohn, Jessica; Connor, Jennie; Kypri, Kypros

2012-01-01

Background Response rates for surveys of alcohol use are declining for all modes of administration (postal, telephone, face-to-face). Low response rates may result in estimates that are biased by selective non-response. We examined non-response bias in the NZ GENACIS survey, a postal survey of a random electoral roll sample, with a response rate of 49.5% (n = 1924). Our aim was to estimate the magnitude of non-response bias in estimating the prevalence of current drinking and heavy episodic (binge) drinking. Methods We used the “continuum of resistance” model to guide the investigation. In this model the likelihood of response by sample members is related to the amount of effort required from the researchers to elicit a response. First, the demographic characteristics of respondents and non-respondents were compared. Second, respondents who returned their questionnaire before the first reminder (early), before the second reminder (intermediate) or after the second reminder (late) were compared by demographic characteristics, 12-month prevalence of drinking and prevalence of binge drinking. Results Demographic characteristics and prevalence of binge drinking were significantly different between late respondents and early/intermediate respondents, with the demographics of early and intermediate respondents being similar to people who refused to participate while late respondents were similar to all other non-respondents. Assuming non-respondents who did not actively refuse to participate had the same drinking patterns as late respondents, the prevalence of binge drinking amongst current drinkers was underestimated. Adjusting the prevalence of binge drinkers amongst current drinkers using population weights showed that this method of adjustment still resulted in an underestimate of the prevalence. Conclusions The findings suggest non-respondents who did not actively refuse to participate are likely to have similar or more extreme drinking behaviours than late respondents, and that surveys of health compromising behaviours such as alcohol use are likely to underestimate the prevalence of these behaviours. PMID:22532858

Prevalence of non-traumatic spinal cord injury in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

New, P W; Farry, A; Baxter, D; Noonan, V K

2013-02-01

Forecasting using population modelling. To determine the prevalence of non-traumatic spinal cord injury (NTSCI) on 30 June 2010. Victoria, Australia. Modelling used the following data: incidence of NTSCI based on state-wide, population-based, health-administration database of hospital admissions; state and national population profiles and life tables; levels of NTSCI based on national rehabilitation outcomes data; and life expectancy for persons with SCI. The total population prevalence rate was 367.2 per million, whereas the prevalence in adults aged 16 years and older was estimated to be 2027, equivalent to a population prevalence rate of 455 per million persons. There were more males (1097) with NTSCI (prevalence rate males 197.8 per million population; females 169.1 per million population) and the prevalence was much higher among those with paraplegia (prevalence rate 269.3 per million compared to 97.8 per million with tetraplegia) and incomplete NTSCI. Ventilator dependency (prevalence rate 1.6 per million population) and paediatric NTSCI (prevalence rate 6 per million population ≤ 15 years old) were extremely rare. We have reported a method for calculating an estimate of the prevalence of NTSCI that provides information that will be vital to optimise health care planning for this group of highly disabled members of society. It is suggested that refinements to the modelling methods are required to enhance its reliability. Future projects should be directed at refining the mortality ratios and performing cohort survival studies.

ERICA: intake of macro and micronutrients of Brazilian adolescents

PubMed Central

Souza, Amanda de Moura; Barufaldi, Laura Augusta; Abreu, Gabriela de Azevedo; Giannini, Denise Tavares; de Oliveira, Cecília Lacroix; dos Santos, Marize Melo; Leal, Vanessa Sá; Vasconcelos, Francisco de Assis Guedes

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe food and macronutrient intake profile and estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake of Brazilian adolescents. METHODS Data from 71,791 adolescents aged from 12 to 17 years were evaluated in the 2013-2014 Brazilian Study of Cardiovascular Risks in Adolescents (ERICA). Food intake was estimated using 24-hour dietary recall (24-HDR). A second 24-HDR was collected in a subsample of the adolescents to estimate within-person variability and calculate the usual individual intake. The prevalence of food/food group intake reported by the adolescents was also estimated. For sodium, the prevalence of inadequate intake was estimated based on the Tolerable Upper Intake Level (UL). The Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) method used as cutoff was applied to estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake. All the analyses were stratified according to sex, age group and Brazilian macro-regions. All statistical analyses accounted for the sample weight and the complex sampling design. RESULTS Rice, beans and other legume, juice and fruit drinks, breads and meat were the most consumed foods among the adolescents. The average energy intake ranged from 2,036 kcal (girls aged from 12 to 13 years) to 2,582 kcal (boy aged from14 to 17 years). Saturated fat and free sugar intake were above the maximum limit recommended (< 10.0%). Vitamins A and E, and calcium were the micronutrients with the highest prevalence of inadequate intake (> 50.0%). Sodium intake was above the UL for more than 80.0% of the adolescents. CONCLUSIONS The diets of Brazilian adolescents were characterized by the intake of traditional Brazilian food, such as rice and beans, as well as by high intake of sugar through sweetened beverages and processed foods. This food pattern was associated with an excessive intake of sodium, saturated fatty acids and free sugar. PMID:26910551

Estimates of the Number of People Living with HIV in Italy

PubMed Central

Regine, Vincenza; Stanecki, Karen; Salfa, Maria Cristina; Raimondo, Mariangela; Suligoi, Barbara

2014-01-01

Objective. To estimate the HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Italy with a projection for 2020. Methods. Two methods elaborated by Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) were used: Estimate and Projection Package and Spectrum. Results. A total of 123,000 (115,000–145,000) individuals aged 15 or more were estimated to be living with HIV in Italy at the end of 2012 and the estimated HIV prevalence was 0.28 (0.24–0.32) per 100 residents aged 15 or more. In 2012, the estimated number of new HIV infections among adults was 3,000 (2,700–4,000), and the number of adults in need for ART was 93,000 (80,000–110,000). The projection estimates that 130,000 (110,000–150,000) adults will live with HIV/AIDS in 2020 in Italy. Conclusion. Estimates of PLHIV in Italy stress the high number of PLHIV in need of care and treatment, as well as the need for more information and prevention campaigns. PMID:25136562

“Attacks” or “Whistling”: Impact of Questionnaire Wording on Wheeze Prevalence Estimates

PubMed Central

Pescatore, Anina M.; Spycher, Ben D.; Beardsmore, Caroline S.; Kuehni, Claudia E.

2015-01-01

Background Estimates of prevalence of wheeze depend on questionnaires. However, wording of questions may vary between studies. We investigated effects of alternative wording on estimates of prevalence and severity of wheeze, and associations with risk factors. Methods White and South Asian children from a population-based cohort (UK) were randomly assigned to two groups and followed up at one, four and six years (1998, 2001, 2003). Parents were asked either if their child ever had “attacks of wheeze” (attack group, N=535), or “wheezing or whistling in the chest” (whistling group, N=2859). All other study aspects were identical, including questions about other respiratory symptoms. Results Prevalence of wheeze ever was lower in the attack group than in the whistling group for all surveys (32 vs. 40% in white children aged one year, p<0.001). Prevalence of other respiratory symptoms did not differ between groups. Wheeze tended to be more severe in the attack group. The strength of association with risk factors was comparable in the two groups. Conclusions The wording of questions on wheeze can affect estimates of prevalence, but has less impact on measured associations with risk factors. Question wording is a potential source of between-study-heterogeneity in meta-analyses. PMID:26114296

Estimating the prevalence of negative attitudes towards people with disability: a comparison of direct questioning, projective questioning and randomised response.

PubMed

Ostapczuk, Martin; Musch, Jochen

2011-01-01

Despite being susceptible to social desirability bias, attitudes towards people with disabilities are traditionally assessed via self-report. We investigated two methods presumably providing more valid prevalence estimates of sensitive attitudes than direct questioning (DQ). Most people projective questioning (MPPQ) attempts to reduce bias by asking interviewees to estimate the number of other people holding a sensitive attribute, rather than confirming or denying the attribute for themselves. The randomised-response technique (RRT) tries to reduce bias by assuring confidentiality through a random scrambling of the respondent's answers. We assessed negative attitudes towards people with physical and mental disability via MPPQ, RRT and DQ to compare the resulting estimates. The MPPQ estimates exceeded the DQ estimates. Employing a cheating-detection extension of the RRT, we determined the proportion of respondents disregarding the RRT instructions and computed an upper bound for the prevalence of negative attitudes. MPPQ estimates exceeded this upper bound and were thus shown to overestimate the prevalence. Furthermore, we found more negative attitudes towards people with mental disabilities than those with physical disabilities in all three questioning conditions. We recommend employing the cheating-detection variant of the RRT to gain additional insight in future studies on attitudes towards people with disabilities.

Forecasting United States heartworm Dirofilaria immitis prevalence in dogs.

PubMed

Bowman, Dwight D; Liu, Yan; McMahan, Christopher S; Nordone, Shila K; Yabsley, Michael J; Lund, Robert B

2016-10-10

This paper forecasts next year's canine heartworm prevalence in the United States from 16 climate, geographic and societal factors. The forecast's construction and an assessment of its performance are described. The forecast is based on a spatial-temporal conditional autoregressive model fitted to over 31 million antigen heartworm tests conducted in the 48 contiguous United States during 2011-2015. The forecast uses county-level data on 16 predictive factors, including temperature, precipitation, median household income, local forest and surface water coverage, and presence/absence of eight mosquito species. Non-static factors are extrapolated into the forthcoming year with various statistical methods. The fitted model and factor extrapolations are used to estimate next year's regional prevalence. The correlation between the observed and model-estimated county-by-county heartworm prevalence for the 5-year period 2011-2015 is 0.727, demonstrating reasonable model accuracy. The correlation between 2015 observed and forecasted county-by-county heartworm prevalence is 0.940, demonstrating significant skill and showing that heartworm prevalence can be forecasted reasonably accurately. The forecast presented herein can a priori alert veterinarians to areas expected to see higher than normal heartworm activity. The proposed methods may prove useful for forecasting other diseases.

Characterizing source-sink dynamics with genetic parentage assignments

Treesearch

M. Zachariah Peery; Steven R. Beissinger; Roger F. House; Martine Berube; Laurie A. Hall; Anna Sellas; Per J. Palsboll

2008-01-01

Source-sink dynamics have been suggested to characterize the population structure of many species, but the prevalence of source-sink systems in nature is uncertain because of inherent challenges in estimating migration rates among populations. Migration rates are often difficult to estimate directly with demographic methods, and indirect genetic methods are subject to...

Estimating prevalence of coronary heart disease for small areas using collateral indicators of morbidity.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity.

Estimating Prevalence of Coronary Heart Disease for Small Areas Using Collateral Indicators of Morbidity

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2010-01-01

Different indicators of morbidity for chronic disease may not necessarily be available at a disaggregated spatial scale (e.g., for small areas with populations under 10 thousand). Instead certain indicators may only be available at a more highly aggregated spatial scale; for example, deaths may be recorded for small areas, but disease prevalence only at a considerably higher spatial scale. Nevertheless prevalence estimates at small area level are important for assessing health need. An instance is provided by England where deaths and hospital admissions for coronary heart disease are available for small areas known as wards, but prevalence is only available for relatively large health authority areas. To estimate CHD prevalence at small area level in such a situation, a shared random effect method is proposed that pools information regarding spatial morbidity contrasts over different indicators (deaths, hospitalizations, prevalence). The shared random effect approach also incorporates differences between small areas in known risk factors (e.g., income, ethnic structure). A Poisson-multinomial equivalence may be used to ensure small area prevalence estimates sum to the known higher area total. An illustration is provided by data for London using hospital admissions and CHD deaths at ward level, together with CHD prevalence totals for considerably larger local health authority areas. The shared random effect involved a spatially correlated common factor, that accounts for clustering in latent risk factors, and also provides a summary measure of small area CHD morbidity. PMID:20195439

Variational Bayes method for estimating transit route OD flows using APC data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-31

The focus of this study is on the use of large quantities of APC data to estimate OD flows : for transit bus routes. Since most OD flow estimation methodologies based on boarding and : alighting counts were developed before the prevalence of APC tech...

Quantification of the increase in thyroid cancer prevalence in Fukushima after the nuclear disaster in 2011—a potential overdiagnosis?

PubMed Central

Katanoda, Kota; Kamo, Ken-Ichi; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-01-01

A thyroid ultrasound examination programme has been conducted in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, after the nuclear disaster in 2011. Although remarkably high prevalence of thyroid cancer was observed, no relevant quantitative evaluation was conducted. We calculated the observed/expected (O/E) ratio of thyroid cancer prevalence for the residents aged ≤20 years. Observed prevalence was the number of thyroid cancer cases detected by the programme through the end of April 2015. Expected prevalence was calculated as cumulative incidence by a life-table method using the national estimates of thyroid cancer incidence rate in 2001–10 (prior to the disaster) and the population of Fukushima Prefecture. The underlying assumption was that there was neither nuclear accident nor screening intervention. The observed and estimated prevalence of thyroid cancer among residents aged ≤20 years was 160.1 and 5.2, respectively, giving an O/E ratio of 30.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.2, 35.9]. When the recent increasing trend in thyroid cancer was considered, the overall O/E ratio was 22.2 (95% CI: 18.9, 25.9). The cumulative number of thyroid cancer deaths in Fukushima Prefecture, estimated with the same method (annual average in 2009–13), was 0.6 under age 40. Combined with the existing knowledge about radiation effect on thyroid cancer, our descriptive analysis suggests the possibility of overdiagnosis. Evaluation including individual-level analysis is required to further clarify the contribution of underlying factors. PMID:26755830

Estimating the coverage of mental health programmes: a systematic review

PubMed Central

De Silva, Mary J; Lee, Lucy; Fuhr, Daniela C; Rathod, Sujit; Chisholm, Dan; Schellenberg, Joanna; Patel, Vikram

2014-01-01

Background The large treatment gap for people suffering from mental disorders has led to initiatives to scale up mental health services. In order to track progress, estimates of programme coverage, and changes in coverage over time, are needed. Methods Systematic review of mental health programme evaluations that assess coverage, measured either as the proportion of the target population in contact with services (contact coverage) or as the proportion of the target population who receive appropriate and effective care (effective coverage). We performed a search of electronic databases and grey literature up to March 2013 and contacted experts in the field. Methods to estimate the numerator (service utilization) and the denominator (target population) were reviewed to explore methods which could be used in programme evaluations. Results We identified 15 735 unique records of which only seven met the inclusion criteria. All studies reported contact coverage. No study explicitly measured effective coverage, but it was possible to estimate this for one study. In six studies the numerator of coverage, service utilization, was estimated using routine clinical information, whereas one study used a national community survey. The methods for estimating the denominator, the population in need of services, were more varied and included national prevalence surveys case registers, and estimates from the literature. Conclusions Very few coverage estimates are available. Coverage could be estimated at low cost by combining routine programme data with population prevalence estimates from national surveys. PMID:24760874

A single 24 h recall overestimates exclusive breastfeeding practices among infants aged less than six months in rural Ethiopia.

PubMed

Fenta, Esete Habtemariam; Yirgu, Robel; Shikur, Bilal; Gebreyesus, Seifu Hagos

2017-01-01

Exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) to six months is one of the World Health Organization's (WHOs) infant and young child feeding (IYCF) core indicators. Single 24 h recall method is currently in use to measure exclusive breastfeeding practice among children of age less than six months. This approach overestimates the prevalence of EBF, especially among small population groups. This justifies the need to look for alternative measurement techniques to have a valid estimate regardless of population characteristics. The study involved 422 infants of age less than six months, living in Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The study was conducted from January to February 2016. Child feeding practices were measured for seven consecutive days using 24 h recall method. Recall since birth, was used to measure breastfeeding practices from birth to the day of data collection. Data on EBF obtained by using single 24 h recall were compared with seven days repeated 24 h recall method. McNemar's test was done to assess if a significant difference existed in rates of EBF between measurement methods. The mean age of infants in months was 3 (SD -1.43). Exclusive breastfeeding prevalence was highest (76.7%; 95% CI 72.6, 80.8) when EBF was estimated using single 24 h recall. The prevalence of EBF based on seven repeated 24 h recall was 53.2% (95% CI: 48.3, 58.0). The estimated prevalence of EBF since birth based on retrospective data (recall since birth) was 50.2% (95% CI 45.4, 55.1). Compared to the EBF estimates obtained from seven repeated 24 h recall, single 24 h recall overestimated EBF magnitude by 23 percentage points (95% CI 19.2, 27.8). As the number of days of 24 h recall increased, a significant decrease in overestimation of EBF was observed. A significant overestimation was observed when single 24 h recall was used to estimate prevalence of EBF compared to seven days of 24 h recall. By increasing the observation days we can significantly decrease the degree of overestimation. Recall since birth presented estimates of EBF that is close to seven repeated 24 h recall. This suggests that a week recall could be an alternative indicator to single 24 h recall.

Minerals Intake Distributions in a Large Sample of Iranian at-Risk Population Using the National Cancer Institute Method: Do They Meet Their Requirements?

PubMed

Heidari, Zahra; Feizi, Awat; Azadbakht, Leila; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

2015-01-01

Minerals are required for the body's normal function. The current study assessed the intake distribution of minerals and estimated the prevalence of inadequacy and excess among a representative sample of healthy middle aged and elderly Iranian people. In this cross-sectional study, the second follow up to the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS), 1922 generally healthy people aged 40 and older were investigated. Dietary intakes were collected using 24 hour recalls and two or more consecutive food records. Distribution of minerals intake was estimated using traditional (averaging dietary intake days) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) methods, and the results obtained from the two methods, were compared. The prevalence of minerals intake inadequacy or excess was estimated using the estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method, the probability approach and the tolerable upper intake levels (UL). There were remarkable differences between values obtained using traditional and NCI methods, particularly in the lower and upper percentiles of the estimated intake distributions. A high prevalence of inadequacy of magnesium (50 - 100 %), calcium (21 - 93 %) and zinc (30 - 55 % for males > 50 years) was observed. Significant gender differences were found regarding inadequate intakes of calcium (21 - 76 % for males vs. 45 - 93 % for females), magnesium (92 % vs. 100 %), iron (0 vs. 15 % for age group 40 - 50 years) and zinc (29 - 55 % vs. 0 %) (all; p < 0.05). Severely imbalanced intakes of magnesium, calcium and zinc were observed among the middle-aged and elderly Iranian population. Nutritional interventions and population-based education to improve healthy diets among the studied population at risk are needed.

Review: Prevalence and dynamics of Helicobacter pylori infection during childhood.

PubMed

Zabala Torrres, Beatriz; Lucero, Yalda; Lagomarcino, Anne J; Orellana-Manzano, Andrea; George, Sergio; Torres, Juan P; O'Ryan, Miguel

2017-10-01

Long-term persistent Helicobacter pylori infection has been associated with ulceropeptic disease and gastric cancer. Although H. pylori is predominantly acquired early in life, a clear understanding of infection dynamics during childhood has been obfuscated by the diversity of populations evaluated, study designs, and methods used. Update understanding of true prevalence of H. pylori infection during childhood, based on a critical analysis of the literature published in the past 5 years. Comprehensive review and meta-analysis of original studies published from 2011 to 2016. A MEDLINE ® /PubMed ® search on May 1, 2016, using the terms pylori and children, and subsequent exclusion, based on abstract review using predefined criteria, resulted in 261 citations. An Embase ® search with the same criteria added an additional 8 citations. In healthy children, meta-analysis estimated an overall seroprevalence rate of 33% (95% CI: 27%-38%). Seven healthy cohort studies using noninvasive direct detection methods showed infection prevalence estimates ranging from 20% to 50% in children ≤5 and 38% to 79% in children >5 years. The probability of infection persistence after a first positive sample ranged from 49% to 95%. Model estimates of cross-sectional direct detection studies in asymptomatic children indicated a prevalence of 37% (95% CI: 30%-44%). Seroprevalence, but not direct detection rates increased with age; both decreased with increasing income. The model estimate based on cross-sectional studies in symptomatic children was 39% (95% CI: 35%-43%). The prevalence of H. pylori infection varied widely in the studies included here; nevertheless, model estimates by detection type were similar, suggesting that overall, one-third of children worldwide are or have been infected. The few cohort and longitudinal studies available show variability, but most studies, show infection rates over 30%. Rather surprisingly, overall infection prevalence in symptomatic children was only slightly higher, around 40%. Studies including only one positive stool sample should be interpreted with caution as spontaneous clearance can occur. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men through the Network Scale-Up Method in Japan

PubMed Central

Ezoe, Satoshi; Morooka, Takeo; Noda, Tatsuya; Sabin, Miriam Lewis; Koike, Soichi

2012-01-01

Background Men who have sex with men (MSM) are one of the groups most at risk for HIV infection in Japan. However, size estimates of MSM populations have not been conducted with sufficient frequency and rigor because of the difficulty, high cost and stigma associated with reaching such populations. This study examined an innovative and simple method for estimating the size of the MSM population in Japan. We combined an internet survey with the network scale-up method, a social network method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations, for the first time in Japan. Methods and Findings An internet survey was conducted among 1,500 internet users who registered with a nationwide internet-research agency. The survey participants were asked how many members of particular groups with known population sizes (firepersons, police officers, and military personnel) they knew as acquaintances. The participants were also asked to identify the number of their acquaintances whom they understood to be MSM. Using these survey results with the network scale-up method, the personal network size and MSM population size were estimated. The personal network size was estimated to be 363.5 regardless of the sex of the acquaintances and 174.0 for only male acquaintances. The estimated MSM prevalence among the total male population in Japan was 0.0402% without adjustment, and 2.87% after adjusting for the transmission error of MSM. Conclusions The estimated personal network size and MSM prevalence seen in this study were comparable to those from previous survey results based on the direct-estimation method. Estimating population sizes through combining an internet survey with the network scale-up method appeared to be an effective method from the perspectives of rapidity, simplicity, and low cost as compared with more-conventional methods. PMID:22563366

Narrative Review: Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Homeless Youth—What Do We Know About Sexually Transmitted Disease Prevalence and Risk?

PubMed Central

Caccamo, Alexandra; Kachur, Rachel; Williams, Samantha P.

2018-01-01

Background Homelessness affects an estimated 1.6 million US youth annually. Compared with housed youth, homeless youth are more likely to engage in high-risk behaviors, including inconsistent condom use, multiple sex partners, survival sex, and alcohol/drug use, putting them at increased sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk. However, there is no national estimate of STD prevalence among this population. Methods We identified 10 peer-reviewed articles (9 unique studies) reporting STD prevalence among homeless US youth (2000–2015). Descriptive and qualitative analyses identified STD prevalence ranges and risk factors among youth. Results Eight studies reported specific STD prevalence estimates, mainly chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis. Overall STD prevalence among homeless youth ranged from 6% to 32%. STD rates for girls varied from 16.7% to 46%, and from 9% to 13.1% in boys. Most studies were conducted in the Western United States, with no studies from the Southeast or Northeast. Youths who experienced longer periods of homelessness were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behaviors. Girls had lower rates of condom use and higher rates of STDs; boys were more likely to engage in anal and anonymous sex. Additionally, peer social networks contributed to protective effects on individual sexual risk behavior. Conclusions Sexually transmitted disease prevalence estimates among homeless youth fluctuated greatly by study. Sexually transmitted disease risk behaviors are associated with unmet survival needs, length of homelessness, and influence of social networks. To promote sexual health and reduce STD rates, we need better estimates of STD prevalence, more geographic diversity of studies, and interventions addressing the behavioral associations identified in our review. PMID:28703725

Trends in prevalence of multi drug resistant tuberculosis in sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Adamu, Aishatu L.; Galadanci, Najibah A.; Zubayr, Bashir; Odoh, Chisom N.; Aliyu, Muktar H.

2017-01-01

Background Multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), is an emerging public health problem in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study aims to determine the trends in prevalence of MDR-TB among new TB cases in sub-Saharan Africa over two decades. Methods We searched electronic data bases and accessed all prevalence studies of MDR-TB within SSA between 2007 and 2017. We determined pooled prevalence estimates using random effects models and determined trends using meta-regression. Results Results: We identified 915 studies satisfying inclusion criteria. Cumulatively, studies reported on MDR-TB culture of 34,652 persons. The pooled prevalence of MDR-TB in new cases was 2.1% (95% CI; 1.7–2.5%). There was a non-significant decline in prevalence by 0.12% per year. Conclusion We found a low prevalence estimate of MDR-TB, and a slight temporal decline over the study period. There is a need for continuous MDR-TB surveillance among patients with TB. PMID:28945771

Estimates of Lifetime Infertility from Three States: The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Crawford, Sara; Fussman, Chris; Bailey, Marie; Bernson, Dana; Jamieson, Denise J.; Murray-Jordan, Melissa; Kissin, Dmitry M.

2016-01-01

Background Knowledge of state-specific infertility is limited. The objectives of this study were to explore state-specific estimates of lifetime prevalence of having ever experienced infertility, sought treatment for infertility, types of treatments sought, and treatment outcomes. Methods Male and female adult residents aged 18–50 years from three states involved in the States Monitoring Assisted Reproductive Technology Collaborative (Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan) were asked state-added infertility questions as part of the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, a state-based, health-related telephone survey. Analysis involved estimation of lifetime prevalence of infertility. Results The estimated lifetime prevalence of infertility among 1,285 adults in Florida, 1,302 in Massachusetts, and 3,360 in Michigan was 9.7%, 6.0%, and 4.2%, respectively. Among 736 adults in Florida, 1,246 in Massachusetts, and 2,742 in Michigan that have ever tried to get pregnant, the lifetime infertility prevalence was 25.3% in Florida, 9.9% in Massachusetts, and 5.8% in Michigan. Among those with a history of infertility, over half sought treatment (60.7% in Florida, 70.6% in Massachusetts, and 51.6% in Michigan), the most common being non–assisted reproductive technology fertility treatments (61.3% in Florida, 66.0% in Massachusetts, and 75.9% in Michigan). Conclusion State-specific estimates of lifetime infertility prevalence in Florida, Massachusetts, and Michigan varied. Variations across states are difficult to interpret, as they likely reflect both true differences in prevalence and differences in data collection questionnaires. State-specific estimates are needed for the prevention, detection, and management of infertility, but estimates should be based on a common set of questions appropriate for these goals. PMID:26172998

Estimating the coverage of mental health programmes: a systematic review.

PubMed

De Silva, Mary J; Lee, Lucy; Fuhr, Daniela C; Rathod, Sujit; Chisholm, Dan; Schellenberg, Joanna; Patel, Vikram

2014-04-01

The large treatment gap for people suffering from mental disorders has led to initiatives to scale up mental health services. In order to track progress, estimates of programme coverage, and changes in coverage over time, are needed. Systematic review of mental health programme evaluations that assess coverage, measured either as the proportion of the target population in contact with services (contact coverage) or as the proportion of the target population who receive appropriate and effective care (effective coverage). We performed a search of electronic databases and grey literature up to March 2013 and contacted experts in the field. Methods to estimate the numerator (service utilization) and the denominator (target population) were reviewed to explore methods which could be used in programme evaluations. We identified 15 735 unique records of which only seven met the inclusion criteria. All studies reported contact coverage. No study explicitly measured effective coverage, but it was possible to estimate this for one study. In six studies the numerator of coverage, service utilization, was estimated using routine clinical information, whereas one study used a national community survey. The methods for estimating the denominator, the population in need of services, were more varied and included national prevalence surveys case registers, and estimates from the literature. Very few coverage estimates are available. Coverage could be estimated at low cost by combining routine programme data with population prevalence estimates from national surveys.

Effectiveness of repeated examination to diagnose enterobiasis in nursery school groups.

PubMed

Remm, Mare; Remm, Kalle

2009-09-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the benefit from repeated examinations in the diagnosis of enterobiasis in nursery school groups, and to test the effectiveness of individual-based risk predictions using different methods. A total of 604 children were examined using double, and 96 using triple, anal swab examinations. The questionnaires for parents, structured observations, and interviews with supervisors were used to identify factors of possible infection risk. In order to model the risk of enterobiasis at individual level, a similarity-based machine learning and prediction software Constud was compared with data mining methods in the Statistica 8 Data Miner software package. Prevalence according to a single examination was 22.5%; the increase as a result of double examinations was 8.2%. Single swabs resulted in an estimated prevalence of 20.1% among children examined 3 times; double swabs increased this by 10.1%, and triple swabs by 7.3%. Random forest classification, boosting classification trees, and Constud correctly predicted about 2/3 of the results of the second examination. Constud estimated a mean prevalence of 31.5% in groups. Constud was able to yield the highest overall fit of individual-based predictions while boosting classification tree and random forest models were more effective in recognizing Enterobius positive persons. As a rule, the actual prevalence of enterobiasis is higher than indicated by a single examination. We suggest using either the values of the mean increase in prevalence after double examinations compared to single examinations or group estimations deduced from individual-level modelled risk predictions.

Effectiveness of Repeated Examination to Diagnose Enterobiasis in Nursery School Groups

PubMed Central

Remm, Kalle

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the benefit from repeated examinations in the diagnosis of enterobiasis in nursery school groups, and to test the effectiveness of individual-based risk predictions using different methods. A total of 604 children were examined using double, and 96 using triple, anal swab examinations. The questionnaires for parents, structured observations, and interviews with supervisors were used to identify factors of possible infection risk. In order to model the risk of enterobiasis at individual level, a similarity-based machine learning and prediction software Constud was compared with data mining methods in the Statistica 8 Data Miner software package. Prevalence according to a single examination was 22.5%; the increase as a result of double examinations was 8.2%. Single swabs resulted in an estimated prevalence of 20.1% among children examined 3 times; double swabs increased this by 10.1%, and triple swabs by 7.3%. Random forest classification, boosting classification trees, and Constud correctly predicted about 2/3 of the results of the second examination. Constud estimated a mean prevalence of 31.5% in groups. Constud was able to yield the highest overall fit of individual-based predictions while boosting classification tree and random forest models were more effective in recognizing Enterobius positive persons. As a rule, the actual prevalence of enterobiasis is higher than indicated by a single examination. We suggest using either the values of the mean increase in prevalence after double examinations compared to single examinations or group estimations deduced from individual-level modelled risk predictions. PMID:19724696

The 12-Month Prevalence of DSM-IV Anxiety Disorders among Nigerian Secondary School Adolescents Aged 13-18 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adewuya, Abiodun O.; Ola, Bola A.; Adewumi, Tomi A.

2007-01-01

Aims: To estimate the 12-month prevalence of DSM-IV-specific anxiety disorders among Nigerian secondary school adolescents aged 13-18 years. Method: A representative sample of adolescents (n=1090) from senior secondary schools in a semi-urban town in Nigeria was assessed for the 12-month prevalence of DSM-IV-specific anxiety. Results: The 12-month…

The Co-Occurrence of Autism and Birth Defects: Prevalence and Risk in a Population-Based Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schendel, Diana E.; Autry, Andrew; Wines, Roberta; Moore, Cynthia

2009-01-01

Aim: To estimate the prevalence of major birth defects among children with autism, the prevalence of autism in children with birth defects, and the risk for autism associated with having birth defects. Method: Retrospective cohort including all children born in Atlanta, GA, USA, 1986 to 1993, who survived to age 3 years and were identified through…

Identifying Local Hotspots of Pediatric Chronic Diseases Using Emergency Department Surveillance

PubMed Central

Lee, David C.; Yi, Stella S.; Fong, Hiu-Fai; Athens, Jessica K.; Ravenell, Joseph E.; Sevick, Mary Ann; Wall, Stephen P.; Elbel, Brian

2016-01-01

Objective To use novel geographic methods and large-scale claims data to identify the local distribution of pediatric chronic diseases in New York City. Methods Using a 2009 all-payer emergency claims database, we identified the proportion of unique children aged 0 to 17 with diagnosis codes for specific medical and psychiatric conditions. As a proof of concept, we compared these prevalence estimates to traditional health surveys and registry data using the most geographically granular data available. In addition, we used home addresses to map local variation in pediatric disease burden. Results We identified 549,547 New York City children who visited an emergency department at least once in 2009. Though our sample included more publicly insured and uninsured children, we found moderate to strong correlations of prevalence estimates when compared to health surveys and registry data at pre-specified geographic levels. Strongest correlations were found for asthma and mental health conditions by county among younger children (0.88, p=0.05 and 0.99, p<0.01, respectively). Moderate correlations by neighborhood were identified for obesity and cancer (0.53 and 0.54, p<0.01). Among adolescents, correlations by health districts were strong for obesity (0.95, p=0.05), and depression estimates had a non-significant, but strong negative correlation with suicide attempts (−0.88, p=0.12). Using SaTScan, we also identified local hotspots of pediatric chronic disease. Conclusions For conditions easily identified in claims data, emergency department surveillance may help estimate pediatric chronic disease prevalence with higher geographic resolution. More studies are needed to investigate limitations of these methods and assess reliability of local disease estimates. What’s New This study demonstrated how emergency department surveillance may improve estimates of pediatric disease prevalence with higher geographic resolution. We identified 29% of New York City children with a single year of data and identified local hotspots of pediatric chronic diseases. PMID:28385326

Prevalence of "DSM-IV" Major Depression among Spanish University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vazquez, Fernando L.; Blanco, Vanessa

2008-01-01

Objective: The authors' purpose in this study was to estimate prevalence and correlates of "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders," 4th edition ("DSM-IV"), major depressive episodes (MDEs) among Spanish university students. Participants and Methods: In October and November 2004, interviewers administered a…

Female genital mutilation/cutting in Italy: an enhanced estimation for first generation migrant women based on 2016 survey data.

PubMed

Ortensi, Livia Elisa; Farina, Patrizia; Leye, Els

2018-01-12

Migration flows of women from Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting practicing countries have generated a need for data on women potentially affected by Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting. This paper presents enhanced estimates for foreign-born women and asylum seekers in Italy in 2016, with the aim of supporting resource planning and policy making, and advancing the methodological debate on estimation methods. The estimates build on the most recent methodological development in Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting direct and indirect estimation for Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting non-practicing countries. Direct estimation of prevalence was performed for 9 communities using the results of the survey FGM-Prev, held in Italy in 2016. Prevalence for communities not involved in the FGM-Prev survey was estimated using to the 'extrapolation-of-FGM/C countries prevalence data method' with corrections according to the selection hypothesis. It is estimated that 60 to 80 thousand foreign-born women aged 15 and over with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting are present in Italy in 2016. We also estimated the presence of around 11 to 13 thousand cut women aged 15 and over among asylum seekers to Italy in 2014-2016. Due to the long established presence of female migrants from some practicing communities Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is emerging as an issue also among women aged 60 and over from selected communities. Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting is an additional source of concern for slightly more than 60% of women seeking asylum. Reliable estimates on Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting at country level are important for evidence-based policy making and service planning. This study suggests that indirect estimations cannot fully replace direct estimations, even if corrections for migrant socioeconomic selection can be implemented to reduce the bias.

Estimating the number of injecting drug users in Scotland's HCV-diagnosed population using capture-recapture methods.

PubMed

McDonald, S A; Hutchinson, S J; Schnier, C; McLeod, A; Goldberg, D J

2014-01-01

In countries maintaining national hepatitis C virus (HCV) surveillance systems, a substantial proportion of individuals report no risk factors for infection. Our goal was to estimate the proportion of diagnosed HCV antibody-positive persons in Scotland (1991-2010) who probably acquired infection through injecting drug use (IDU), by combining data on IDU risk from four linked data sources using log-linear capture-recapture methods. Of 25,521 HCV-diagnosed individuals, 14,836 (58%) reported IDU risk with their HCV diagnosis. Log-linear modelling estimated a further 2484 HCV-diagnosed individuals with IDU risk, giving an estimated prevalence of 83. Stratified analyses indicated variation across birth cohort, with estimated prevalence as low as 49% in persons born before 1960 and greater than 90% for those born since 1960. These findings provide public-health professionals with a more complete profile of Scotland's HCV-infected population in terms of transmission route, which is essential for targeting educational, prevention and treatment interventions.

Regional variation in the prevalence of E. coli O157 in cattle: a meta-analysis and meta-regression.

PubMed

Islam, Md Zohorul; Musekiwa, Alfred; Islam, Kamrul; Ahmed, Shahana; Chowdhury, Sharmin; Ahad, Abdul; Biswas, Paritosh Kumar

2014-01-01

Escherichia coli O157 (EcO157) infection has been recognized as an important global public health concern. But information on the prevalence of EcO157 in cattle at the global and at the wider geographical levels is limited, if not absent. This is the first meta-analysis to investigate the point prevalence of EcO157 in cattle at the global level and to explore the factors contributing to variation in prevalence estimates. Seven electronic databases- CAB Abstracts, PubMed, Biosis Citation Index, Medline, Web of Knowledge, Scirus and Scopus were searched for relevant publications from 1980 to 2012. A random effect meta-analysis model was used to produce the pooled estimates. The potential sources of between study heterogeneity were identified using meta-regression. A total of 140 studies consisting 220,427 cattle were included in the meta-analysis. The prevalence estimate of EcO157 in cattle at the global level was 5.68% (95% CI, 5.16-6.20). The random effects pooled prevalence estimates in Africa, Northern America, Oceania, Europe, Asia and Latin America-Caribbean were 31.20% (95% CI, 12.35-50.04), 7.35% (95% CI, 6.44-8.26), 6.85% (95% CI, 2.41-11.29), 5.15% (95% CI, 4.21-6.09), 4.69% (95% CI, 3.05-6.33) and 1.65% (95% CI, 0.77-2.53), respectively. Between studies heterogeneity was evidenced in most regions. World region (p<0.001), type of cattle (p<0.001) and to some extent, specimens (p = 0.074) as well as method of pre-enrichment (p = 0.110), were identified as factors for variation in the prevalence estimates of EcO157 in cattle. The prevalence of the organism seems to be higher in the African and Northern American regions. The important factors that might have influence in the estimates of EcO157 are type of cattle and kind of screening specimen. Their roles need to be determined and they should be properly handled in any survey to estimate the true prevalence of EcO157.

The Nakuru posterior segment eye disease study: methods and prevalence of blindness and visual impairment in Nakuru, Kenya.

PubMed

Mathenge, Wanjiku; Bastawrous, Andrew; Foster, Allen; Kuper, Hannah

2012-10-01

To estimate the prevalence of blindness and visual impairment (VI) in adults aged ≥50 years in the Nakuru district of Kenya and to identify sociodemographic risk factors for these conditions. We also sought to validate the Rapid Assessment of Avoidable Blindness (RAAB) methodology. There were 5010 subjects enumerated for this study. Of these, 4414 participants underwent examination, for a response rate of 88.1%. Cross-sectional, population-based survey. Cluster random samplings with probability proportionate to size procedures were used to select a representative cross-sectional sample of adults aged ≥50 years. Each participant was interviewed, had distance visual acuity (VA) measured with reduced logarithm of the minimal angle of resolution tumbling-E chart, underwent autorefraction, and thereby had measurements of presenting, uncorrected, and best-corrected VA. All participants, regardless of vision, underwent detailed ophthalmic examinations including slit-lamp assessment and dilated retinal photographs. Visual acuity of <6/12. A representative sample of 4414 adults were enumerated (response rate, 88.1%). The prevalence of blindness (VA < 3/60 in better eye) was 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-2.1%) and of VI, 0.4% (95% CI, 0.3-0.7%); 8.1% (95% CI, 7.2-9.2%); and 5.1% (95% CI, 4.3-6.1%) were severely (<6/60-3/60), moderately (<6/18-6/60), or mildly (<6/12-6/18) visually impaired, respectively. Being male, having less education, having Kalenjin tribal origin, and being ≥80 years old were associated with increased blindness prevalence. Prevalence estimates were comparable to a RAAB performed in the same area 2 years earlier. This survey provides reliable estimates of blindness and VI prevalence in Nakuru. Older age and tribal origin were identified as predictors of these conditions. This survey validates the use of RAAB as a method of estimating blindness and VI prevalence. Copyright © 2012 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in adult chlamydia and gonorrhoea prevalence, incidence and urethral discharge case reporting in Mongolia from 1995 to 2016 – estimates using the Spectrum-STI model

PubMed Central

Badrakh, Jugderjav; Zayasaikhan, Setsen; Jagdagsuren, Davaalkham; Enkhbat, Erdenetungalag; Jadambaa, Narantuya; Munkhbaatar, Sergelen; Taylor, Melanie; Rowley, Jane; Mahiané, Guy

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate Mongolia’s prevalence and incidence trends of gonorrhoea and chlamydia in women and men 15–49 years old to inform control of STIs and HIV, a national health sector priority. Methods We applied the Spectrum-STI estimation model, fitting data from two national population surveys (2001 and 2008) and from routine gonorrhoea screening of pregnant women in antenatal care (1997 to 2016) adjusted for diagnostic test performance, male/female differences and missing high-risk populations. Prevalence and incidence estimates were then used to assess completeness of national case reporting. Results Gonorrhoea prevalence was estimated at 3.3% (95% confidence interval, 1.6–3.9%) in women and 2.9% (1.6–4.1%) in men in 2016; chlamydia prevalence levels were 19.5% (17.3–21.9%) and 15.6% (10.0–21.2%), respectively. Corresponding new incident cases in women and men in 2016 totalled 60 334 (36 147 to 121 933) and 76 893 (35 639 to 254 913) for gonorrhoea and 131 306 (84 232 to 254 316) and 148 162 (71 885 to 462 588) for chlamydia. Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence declined by an estimated 33% and 11%, respectively from 2001 to 2016. Comparing numbers of symptomatic and treated cases estimated by Spectrum with gonorrhoea case reports suggests that 15% of symptomatic treated gonorrhoea cases were reported in 2016; only a minority of chlamydia episodes were reported as male urethral discharge cases. Discussion Gonorrhoea and chlamydia prevalence are estimated to have declined in Mongolia during the early 2000s, possibly associated with syndromic management in primary care facilities and improving treatment coverage since 2001 and scale up of HIV/STI prevention interventions since 2003. However, prevalence remains high with most gonorrhoea and chlamydia cases not treated or recorded in the public health system. PMID:29487760

Models for estimating and projecting global, regional and national prevalence and disease burden of asthma: protocol for a systematic review.

PubMed

Bhuia, Mohammad Romel; Nwaru, Bright I; Weir, Christopher J; Sheikh, Aziz

2017-05-17

Models that have so far been used to estimate and project the prevalence and disease burden of asthma are in most cases inadequately described and irreproducible. We aim systematically to describe and critique the existing models in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility, and to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence and disease burden of asthma. We will search the following electronic databases to identify relevant literature published from 1980 to 2017: Medline, Embase, WHO Library and Information Services and Web of Science Core Collection. We will identify additional studies by searching the reference list of all the retrieved papers and contacting experts. We will include observational studies that used models for estimating and/or projecting prevalence and disease burden of asthma regarding human population of any age and sex. Two independent reviewers will assess the studies for inclusion and extract data from included papers. Data items will include authors' names, publication year, study aims, data source and time period, study population, asthma outcomes, study methodology, model type, model settings, study variables, methods of model derivation, methods of parameter estimation and/or projection, model fit information, key findings and identified research gaps. A detailed critical narrative synthesis of the models will be undertaken in relation to their strengths, limitations and reproducibility. A quality assessment checklist and scoring framework will be used to determine the appropriate models for estimating and projecting the prevalence anddiseaseburden of asthma. We will not collect any primary data for this review, and hence there is no need for formal National Health Services Research Ethics Committee approval. We will present our findings at scientific conferences and publish the findings in the peer-reviewed scientific journal. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Prevalence of Gender Identity Disorder and Suicide Risk Among Transgender Veterans Utilizing Veterans Health Administration Care

PubMed Central

Brown, George R.; Shipherd, PhD, Jillian C.; Kauth, Michael; Piegari, Rebecca I.; Bossarte, Robert M.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the prevalence and incidence of gender identity disorder (GID) diagnoses among veterans in the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) health care system and examined suicide risk among veterans with a GID diagnosis. Methods. We examined VHA electronic medical records from 2000 through 2011 for 2 official ICD-9 diagnosis codes that indicate transgender status. We generated annual period prevalence estimates and calculated incidence using the prevalence of GID at 2000 as the baseline year. We cross-referenced GID cases with available data (2009–2011) of suicide-related events among all VHA users to examine suicide risk. Results. GID prevalence in the VHA is higher (22.9/100 000 persons) than are previous estimates of GID in the general US population (4.3/100 000 persons). The rate of suicide-related events among GID-diagnosed VHA veterans was more than 20 times higher than were rates for the general VHA population. Conclusions. The prevalence of GID diagnosis nearly doubled over 10 years among VHA veterans. Research is needed to examine suicide risk among transgender veterans and how their VHA utilization may be enhanced by new VA initiatives on transgender care. PMID:23947310

Standardizing Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence measured via microscopy versus rapid diagnostic test.

PubMed

Mappin, Bonnie; Cameron, Ewan; Dalrymple, Ursula; Weiss, Daniel J; Bisanzio, Donal; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W

2015-11-17

Large-scale mapping of Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence relies on opportunistic assemblies of infection prevalence data arising from thousands of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys conducted worldwide. Variance in these data is driven by both signal, the true underlying pattern of infection prevalence, and a range of factors contributing to 'noise', including sampling error, differing age ranges of subjects and differing parasite detection methods. Whilst the former two noise components have been addressed in previous studies, the effect of different diagnostic methods used to determine PfPR in different studies has not. In particular, the majority of PfPR data are based on positivity rates determined by either microscopy or rapid diagnostic test (RDT), yet these approaches are not equivalent; therefore a method is needed for standardizing RDT and microscopy-based prevalence estimates prior to use in mapping. Twenty-five recent Demographic and Health surveys (DHS) datasets from sub-Saharan Africa provide child diagnostic test results derived using both RDT and microscopy for each individual. These prevalence estimates were aggregated across level one administrative zones and a Bayesian probit regression model fit to the microscopy- versus RDT-derived prevalence relationship. An errors-in-variables approach was employed to account for sampling error in both the dependent and independent variables. In addition to the diagnostic outcome, RDT type, fever status and recent anti-malarial treatment were extracted from the datasets in order to analyse their effect on observed malaria prevalence. A strong non-linear relationship between the microscopy and RDT-derived prevalence was found. The results of regressions stratified by the additional diagnostic variables (RDT type, fever status and recent anti-malarial treatment) indicate that there is a distinct and consistent difference in the relationship when the data are stratified by febrile status and RDT brand. The relationships defined in this research can be applied to RDT-derived PfPR data to effectively convert them to an estimate of the parasite prevalence expected using microscopy (or vice versa), thereby standardizing the dataset and improving the signal-to-noise ratio. Additionally, the results provide insight on the importance of RDT brands, febrile status and recent anti-malarial treatment for explaining inconsistencies between observed prevalence derived from different diagnostics.

New non-randomised model to assess the prevalence of discriminating behaviour: a pilot study on mephedrone

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background An advantage of randomised response and non-randomised models investigating sensitive issues arises from the characteristic that individual answers about discriminating behaviour cannot be linked to the individuals. This study proposed a new fuzzy response model coined 'Single Sample Count' (SSC) to estimate prevalence of discriminating or embarrassing behaviour in epidemiologic studies. Methods The SSC was tested and compared to the established Forced Response (FR) model estimating Mephedrone use. Estimations from both SSC and FR were then corroborated with qualitative hair screening data. Volunteers (n = 318, mean age = 22.69 ± 5.87, 59.1% male) in a rural area in north Wales and a metropolitan area in England completed a questionnaire containing the SSC and FR in alternating order, and four questions canvassing opinions and beliefs regarding Mephedrone. Hair samples were screened for Mephedrone using a qualitative Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry method. Results The SSC algorithm improves upon the existing item count techniques by utilizing known population distributions and embeds the sensitive question among four unrelated innocuous questions with binomial distribution. Respondents are only asked to indicate how many without revealing which ones are true. The two probability models yielded similar estimates with the FR being between 2.6% - 15.0%; whereas the new SSC ranged between 0% - 10%. The six positive hair samples indicated that the prevalence rate in the sample was at least 4%. The close proximity of these estimates provides evidence to support the validity of the new SSC model. Using simulations, the recommended sample sizes as the function of the statistical power and expected prevalence rate were calculated. Conclusion The main advantages of the SSC over other indirect methods are: simple administration, completion and calculation, maximum use of the data and good face validity for all respondents. Owing to the key feature that respondents are not required to answer the sensitive question directly, coupled with the absence of forced response or obvious self-protective response strategy, the SSC has the potential to cut across self-protective barriers more effectively than other estimation models. This elegantly simple, quick and effective method can be successfully employed in public health research investigating compromising behaviours. PMID:21812979

Epilepsy in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Pion, Sébastien D. S.; Kaiser, Christoph; Boutros-Toni, Fernand; Cournil, Amandine; Taylor, Melanie M.; Meredith, Stefanie E. O.; Stufe, Ansgar; Bertocchi, Ione; Kipp, Walter; Preux, Pierre-Marie; Boussinesq, Michel

2009-01-01

Objective We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level. Design We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data. Data Sources Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008. Review Methods We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models. Results Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence. Conclusion These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship. PMID:19529767

Elementary and Middle School Teacher Perceptions of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Prevalence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fabiano, Gregory A.; Pelham, William E., Jr.; Majumdar, Antara; Evans, Steven W.; Manos, Michael J.; Caserta, Donald; Girio-Herrera, Erin L.; Pisecco, Stewart; Hannah, Jane N.; Carter, Randy L.

2013-01-01

Background: Estimates of ADHD diagnosis and stimulant medication use vary across studies. Few studies ascertain the teacher perspective on these rates. Objective: To ascertain teachers' perceptions of ADHD prevalence and medication treatment within their classrooms. Method: The present school survey collected teacher report of identified children…

Prevalence and Correlates of Self-Injury among University Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gollust, Sarah Elizabeth; Eisenberg, Daniel; Golberstein, Ezra

2008-01-01

Objective: The authors' purpose in this research was to establish estimates of the prevalence and correlates of nonsuicidal self-injury among university students. Participants: The authors recruited participants (N = 2, 843) from a random sample of 5, 021 undergraduate and graduate students attending a large midwestern public university. Methods:…

The Prevalence and Special Educational Requirements of Dyscompetent Physicians

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Betsy W.

2006-01-01

Underperformance among physicians is not well studied or defined; yet, the identification and remediation of physicians who are not performing up to acceptable standards is central to quality care and patient safety. Methods for estimating the prevalence of dyscompetence include evaluating available data on medical errors, malpractice claims,…

Estimating the prevalence of heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Akioyamen, Leo E; Genest, Jacques; Shan, Shubham D; Reel, Rachel L; Albaum, Jordan M; Chu, Anna; Tu, Jack V

2017-01-01

Objectives Heterozygous familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) confers a significant risk for premature cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the estimated prevalence of FH varies substantially among studies. We aimed to provide a summary estimate of FH prevalence in the general population and assess variations in frequency across different sociodemographic characteristics. Setting, participants and outcome measures We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, the Cochrane Library, PsycINFO and PubMed for peer-reviewed literature using validated strategies. Results were limited to studies published in English between January 1990 and January 2017. Studies were eligible if they determined FH prevalence using clinical criteria or DNA-based analyses. We determined a pooled point prevalence of FH in adults and children and assessed the variation of the pooled frequency by age, sex, geographical location, diagnostic method, study quality and year of publication. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were investigated through subgroups, meta-regression and sensitivity analyses. Results The pooled prevalence of FH from 19 studies including 2 458 456 unique individuals was 0.40% (95% CI 0.29% to 0.52%) which corresponds to a frequency of 1 in 250 individuals. FH prevalence was found to vary by age and geographical location but not by any other covariates. Results were consistent in sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our systematic review suggests that FH is a common disorder, affecting 1 in 250 individuals. These findings underscore the need for early detection and management to decrease CVD risk. PMID:28864697

Bayesian evidence synthesis to estimate HIV prevalence in men who have sex with men in Poland at the end of 2009.

PubMed

Rosinska, M; Gwiazda, P; De Angelis, D; Presanis, A M

2016-04-01

HIV spread in men who have sex with men (MSM) is an increasing problem in Poland. Despite the existence of a surveillance system, there is no direct evidence to allow estimation of HIV prevalence and the proportion undiagnosed in MSM. We extracted data on HIV and the MSM population in Poland, including case-based surveillance data, diagnostic testing prevalence data and behavioural data relating to self-reported prior diagnosis, stratified by age (⩽35, >35 years) and region (Mazowieckie including the capital city of Warsaw; other regions). They were integrated into one model based on a Bayesian evidence synthesis approach. The posterior distributions for HIV prevalence and the undiagnosed fraction were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. To improve the model fit we repeated the analysis, introducing bias parameters to account for potential lack of representativeness in data. By placing additional constraints on bias parameters we obtained precisely identified estimates. This family of models indicates a high undiagnosed fraction [68·3%, 95% credibility interval (CrI) 53·9-76·1] and overall low prevalence (2·3%, 95% CrI 1·4-4·1) of HIV in MSM. Additional data are necessary in order to produce more robust epidemiological estimates. More effort is urgently needed to ensure timely diagnosis of HIV in Poland.

Reliability of School Surveys in Estimating Geographic Variation in Malaria Transmission in the Western Kenyan Highlands

PubMed Central

Gitonga, Caroline W.; Gillig, Jonathan; Owaga, Chrispin; Marube, Elizabeth; Odongo, Wycliffe; Okoth, Albert; China, Pauline; Oriango, Robin; Brooker, Simon J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Cox, Jonathan

2013-01-01

Background School surveys provide an operational approach to assess malaria transmission through parasite prevalence. There is limited evidence on the comparability of prevalence estimates obtained from school and community surveys carried out at the same locality. Methods Concurrent school and community cross-sectional surveys were conducted in 46 school/community clusters in the western Kenyan highlands and households of school children were geolocated. Malaria was assessed by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and combined seroprevalence of antibodies to bloodstage Plasmodium falciparum antigens. Results RDT prevalence in school and community populations was 25.7% (95% CI: 24.4-26.8) and 15.5% (95% CI: 14.4-16.7), respectively. Seroprevalence in the school and community populations was 51.9% (95% CI: 50.5-53.3) and 51.5% (95% CI: 49.5-52.9), respectively. RDT prevalence in schools could differentiate between low (<7%, 95% CI: 0-19%) and high (>39%, 95% CI: 25-49%) transmission areas in the community and, after a simple adjustment, were concordant with the community estimates. Conclusions Estimates of malaria prevalence from school surveys were consistently higher than those from community surveys and were strongly correlated. School-based estimates can be used as a reliable indicator of malaria transmission intensity in the wider community and may provide a basis for identifying priority areas for malaria control. PMID:24143250

Prevalence of Dementia and Cognitive Complaints in the Context of High Cognitive Reserve: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Perquin, Magali; Diederich, Nico; Pastore, Jessica; Lair, Marie-Lise; Stranges, Saverio; Vaillant, Michel

2015-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to assess the prevalence of dementia and cognitive complaints in a cross-sectional sample of Luxembourg seniors, and to discuss the results in the societal context of high cognitive reserve resulting from multilingualism. Methods A population sample of 1,377 people representative of Luxembourg residents aged over 64 years was initially identified via the national social insurance register. There were three different levels of contribution: full participation in the study, partial participation, and non-participation. We examined the profiles of these three different samples so that we could infer the prevalence estimates in the Luxembourgish senior population as a whole using the prevalence estimates obtained in this study. Results After careful attention to the potential bias and of the possibility of underestimation, we considered the obtained prevalence estimates of 3.8% for dementia (with corresponding 95% confidence limits (CL) of 2.8% and 4.8%) and 26.1% for cognitive complaints (CL = [17.8–34.3]) as trustworthy. Conclusion Based on these findings, we postulate that high cognitive reserve may result in surprisingly low prevalence estimates of cognitive complaints and dementia in adults over the age of 64 years, which thereby corroborates the longer disability-free life expectancy observed in the Luxembourg population. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to report such Luxembourgish public health data. PMID:26390288

Epidemiology of autistic disorder in Bahrain: prevalence and obstetric and familial characteristics.

PubMed

Al-Ansari, A M; Ahmed, M M

2013-09-01

European and North American studies show that the prevalence of autistic disorder is inccreasing. This study was performed to identify the prevalence of autistic disorder in Bahrain, and determine some of the demographic and family characteristics. Using a case-control design, 100 children who received a diagnosis of autistic disorder according to DSM-IV-TR during the period 2000-2010 were selected. An equal numberofcontrols who had received a diagnosis of nocturnal enuresis and no psychopathology were selected, matched for sex and age group. The prevalence of autistic disorder was estimated as 4.3 per 10,000 population, with a male:female sex ratio of 4:1. Significantly more cases than controls were delivered by caesarean section and had mothers who suffered prenatal complications. The prevalence estimate in Bahrain is comparable to previous reports using similar methods. Obstetric complications and caesarean section delivery may be associated with autistic disorder.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity and some associated factors among adult residents of northeast China: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Zhang, Peng; Gao, Chunshi; Li, Zhijun; Lv, Xin; Song, Yuanyuan; Yu, Yaqin; Li, Bo

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aims to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity and determine potential influencing factors among adults in northeast China. Methods A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Jilin Province, northeast China, in 2012. A total of 9873 men and 10 966 women aged 18–79 years from the general population were included using a multistage stratified random cluster sampling design. Data were obtained from face-to-face interview and physical examination. After being weighted according to a complex sampling scheme, the sample was used to estimate the prevalence of overweight (body mass index (BMI) 24–27.9 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI >28 kg/m2) in Jilin Province, and analyse influencing factors through corresponding statistical methods based on complex sampling design behaviours. Results The overall prevalence of overweight was 32.3% (male 34.3%; female 30.2%), and the prevalence of obesity was 14.6% (male 16.3%; female 12.8%) in Jilin Province. The prevalence of both overweight and obesity were higher in men than women (p<0.001). Influencing factors included sex, age, marriage status, occupation, smoking, drinking, diet and hours of sleep (p<0.05). Conclusions This study estimated that the prevalence of overweight and obesity among adult residents of Jilin Province, northeast China, were high. The results of this study will be submitted to the Health Department of Jilin Province and other relevant departments as a reference, which should inform policy makers in developing education and publicity to prevent and control the occurrence of overweight and obesity. PMID:27456326

Antimicrobial Resistance of Thermotolerant Campylobacter Species Isolated from Humans, Food-Producing Animals, and Products of Animal Origin: A Worldwide Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Signorini, Marcelo L; Rossler, Eugenia; Díaz David, Diego C; Olivero, Carolina R; Romero-Scharpen, Analía; Soto, Lorena P; Astesana, Diego M; Berisvil, Ayelen P; Zimmermann, Jorge A; Fusari, Marcia L; Frizzo, Laureano S; Zbrun, María V

2018-04-30

The objective of this meta-analysis was to summarize available information on the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter species in humans, food-producing animals, and products of animal origin. A number of multilevel random-effect meta-analysis models were fitted to estimate mean occurrence rate of antimicrobial-resistant thermotolerant Campylobacter and to compare them throughout the years and among the species, food-producing animals (i.e., bovine, pigs, broilers, hen, goat, and sheep), country of origin, sample type, methodology to determine the antimicrobial susceptibility, and the species of Campylobacter. Among the considered antibiotics, thermotolerant Campylobacter showed the highest resistance to tetracycline (pool estimate [PE] = 0.493; 95% CI 0.466-0.519), nalidixic acid (PE = 0.385; 95% CI 0.348-0.423), and ciprofloxacin (PE = 0.376; 95% CI 0.339-0.415). In general, the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter spp. was higher in hen, broilers, and swine. Campylobacter coli showed a higher prevalence of antimicrobial resistance than Campylobacter jejuni. Independent of the antimicrobial evaluated, the disk diffusion method showed higher prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter than the methods based on the minimum inhibitory concentration estimation. The meta-analysis showed that the prevalence of antimicrobial-resistant Campylobacter is relevant essentially in foods derived from hens and broilers, and it was observed worldwide. The prevalence of this pathogen is of public health importance and the increase in the prevalence of Campylobacter strains resistant to the antimicrobial of choice worsens the situation, hence, national authorities must monitor the situation in each country with the aim to establish the appropriate risk management measures.

A Bayesian evidence synthesis approach to estimate disease prevalence in hard-to-reach populations: hepatitis C in New York City.

PubMed

Tan, Sarah; Makela, Susanna; Heller, Daliah; Konty, Kevin; Balter, Sharon; Zheng, Tian; Stark, James H

2018-06-01

Existing methods to estimate the prevalence of chronic hepatitis C (HCV) in New York City (NYC) are limited in scope and fail to assess hard-to-reach subpopulations with highest risk such as injecting drug users (IDUs). To address these limitations, we employ a Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis model to systematically combine multiple sources of data, account for bias in certain data sources, and provide unbiased HCV prevalence estimates with associated uncertainty. Our approach improves on previous estimates by explicitly accounting for injecting drug use and including data from high-risk subpopulations such as the incarcerated, and is more inclusive, utilizing ten NYC data sources. In addition, we derive two new equations to allow age at first injecting drug use data for former and current IDUs to be incorporated into the Bayesian evidence synthesis, a first for this type of model. Our estimated overall HCV prevalence as of 2012 among NYC adults aged 20-59 years is 2.78% (95% CI 2.61-2.94%), which represents between 124,900 and 140,000 chronic HCV cases. These estimates suggest that HCV prevalence in NYC is higher than previously indicated from household surveys (2.2%) and the surveillance system (2.37%), and that HCV transmission is increasing among young injecting adults in NYC. An ancillary benefit from our results is an estimate of current IDUs aged 20-59 in NYC: 0.58% or 27,600 individuals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Geographic variation in the relationship between human Lyme disease incidence and density of infected host-seeking Ixodes scapularis nymphs in the Eastern United States.

PubMed

Pepin, Kim M; Eisen, Rebecca J; Mead, Paul S; Piesman, Joseph; Fish, Durland; Hoen, Anne G; Barbour, Alan G; Hamer, Sarah; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A

2012-06-01

Prevention and control of Lyme disease is difficult because of the complex biology of the pathogen's (Borrelia burgdorferi) vector (Ixodes scapularis) and multiple reservoir hosts with varying degrees of competence. Cost-effective implementation of tick- and host-targeted control methods requires an understanding of the relationship between pathogen prevalence in nymphs, nymph abundance, and incidence of human cases of Lyme disease. We quantified the relationship between estimated acarological risk and human incidence using county-level human case data and nymphal prevalence data from field-derived estimates in 36 eastern states. The estimated density of infected nymphs (mDIN) was significantly correlated with human incidence (r = 0.69). The relationship was strongest in high-prevalence areas, but it varied by region and state, partly because of the distribution of B. burgdorferi genotypes. More information is needed in several high-prevalence states before DIN can be used for cost-effectiveness analyses.

Incidence and Prevalence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Among Arab and Chaldean Americans in Southeastern Michigan: The Michigan Lupus Epidemiology and Surveillance Program

PubMed Central

DeGuire, Peter; Lyon-Callo, Sarah; Wang, Lu; Marder, Wendy; McCune, W. Joseph; Helmick, Charles G.; Gordon, Caroline; Dhar, J. Patricia; Leisen, James; Somers, Emily C.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) among Arab and Chaldean Americans residing in southeast Michigan. Methods. For those meeting SLE criteria from the Michigan Lupus Epidemiology and Surveillance Registry, we determined Arab or Chaldean ethnicity by links with demographic data from birth certificates and with a database of Arab and Chaldean names. We compared prevalence and incidence of SLE for Arab and Chaldean Americans with estimates for non-Arab and non-Chaldean American Whites and Blacks. Results. We classified 54 individuals with SLE as Arab and Chaldean Americans. The age-adjusted incidence and prevalence estimates for Arab and Chaldean Americans were 7.6 and 62.6 per 100 000, respectively. Arab and Chaldean Americans had a 2.1-fold excess SLE incidence compared with non-Arab and non-Chaldean American Whites. Arab and Chaldean American women had both significantly higher incidence rates (5.0-fold increase) and prevalence estimates (7.4-fold increase) than did Arab and Chaldean American men. Conclusions. Recognizing that Arab and Chaldean Americans experience different disease burdens from Whites is a first step toward earlier diagnosis and designing targeted interventions. Better methods of assigning ethnicity would improve research in this population. PMID:25790387

Estimating disease prevalence from two-phase surveys with non-response at the second phase

PubMed Central

Gao, Sujuan; Hui, Siu L.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

SUMMARY In this paper we compare several methods for estimating population disease prevalence from data collected by two-phase sampling when there is non-response at the second phase. The traditional weighting type estimator requires the missing completely at random assumption and may yield biased estimates if the assumption does not hold. We review two approaches and propose one new approach to adjust for non-response assuming that the non-response depends on a set of covariates collected at the first phase: an adjusted weighting type estimator using estimated response probability from a response model; a modelling type estimator using predicted disease probability from a disease model; and a regression type estimator combining the adjusted weighting type estimator and the modelling type estimator. These estimators are illustrated using data from an Alzheimer’s disease study in two populations. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performances of the proposed estimators under various situations. PMID:10931514

Model-Based Geostatistical Mapping of the Prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in West Africa

PubMed Central

O’Hanlon, Simon J.; Slater, Hannah C.; Cheke, Robert A.; Boatin, Boakye A.; Coffeng, Luc E.; Pion, Sébastien D. S.; Boussinesq, Michel; Zouré, Honorat G. M.; Stolk, Wilma A.; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2016-01-01

Background The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions. Methods and Findings Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearson’s correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2–90%) in 1975. Conclusions and Significance This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools. PMID:26771545

Quantification of the increase in thyroid cancer prevalence in Fukushima after the nuclear disaster in 2011--a potential overdiagnosis?

PubMed

Katanoda, Kota; Kamo, Ken-Ichi; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2016-03-01

A thyroid ultrasound examination programme has been conducted in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan, after the nuclear disaster in 2011. Although remarkably high prevalence of thyroid cancer was observed, no relevant quantitative evaluation was conducted. We calculated the observed/expected (O/E) ratio of thyroid cancer prevalence for the residents aged ≤20 years. Observed prevalence was the number of thyroid cancer cases detected by the programme through the end of April 2015. Expected prevalence was calculated as cumulative incidence by a life-table method using the national estimates of thyroid cancer incidence rate in 2001-10 (prior to the disaster) and the population of Fukushima Prefecture. The underlying assumption was that there was neither nuclear accident nor screening intervention. The observed and estimated prevalence of thyroid cancer among residents aged ≤20 years was 160.1 and 5.2, respectively, giving an O/E ratio of 30.8 [95% confidence interval (CI): 26.2, 35.9]. When the recent increasing trend in thyroid cancer was considered, the overall O/E ratio was 22.2 (95% CI: 18.9, 25.9). The cumulative number of thyroid cancer deaths in Fukushima Prefecture, estimated with the same method (annual average in 2009-13), was 0.6 under age 40. Combined with the existing knowledge about radiation effect on thyroid cancer, our descriptive analysis suggests the possibility of overdiagnosis. Evaluation including individual-level analysis is required to further clarify the contribution of underlying factors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Measuring reproductive health: review of community-based approaches to assessing morbidity.

PubMed Central

Sadana, R.

2000-01-01

This article begins by reviewing selected past approaches to estimating the prevalence of a range of morbidities through the use of household or community-based interview surveys in developed and developing countries. Subsequently, it reviews epidemiological studies that have used a range of methods to estimate the prevalence of reproductive morbidities. A detailed review of recent community or hospital based health interview validation studies that compare self-reported, clinical and laboratory measures is presented. Studies from Bangladesh, Bolivia, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Philippines and Turkey provide empirical evidence that self-reported morbidity and observed morbidity measure different phenomena and therefore different aspects of reproductive health and illness. Rather than estimating the prevalence of morbidity, interview-based surveys may provide useful information about the disability or burden associated with reproductive health and illness. PMID:10859858

Estimates of cancer burden in Sardinia.

PubMed

Budroni, Mario; Sechi, Ornelia; Cossu, Antonio; Palmieri, Giuseppe; Tanda, Francesco; Foschi, Roberto; Rossi, Silvia

2013-01-01

Cancer registration in Sardinia covers 43% of the population and started in 1992 in the Sassari province. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of seven major cancers for the entire region in the period 1970-2015. The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Estimates were compared with the available observed data. In 2012 the lowest incidence was estimated for stomach cancer and melanoma among men, with 140 and 74 new cases, respectively, per 100,000. The mortality rates were highest for lung cancer and were very close to the incidence rates (77 and 95 per 100,000, respectively). In women, breast was by far the most frequent cancer site both in terms of incidence (1,512 new cases) and mortality (295 deaths), followed by colon-rectum (493 cases and 201 deaths), lung (205 cases and 167 deaths), melanoma (106 cases and 15 deaths), stomach (82 cases and 61 deaths), and uterine cervix (36 cases and 19 deaths). The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer (15,180 cases), followed by colorectal cancer with about 7,300 prevalent cases in both sexes. This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Sardinia until 2015. The comparisons between the estimated age-standardized incidence rates and those observed in the Sassari registry indicate good agreement. The estimates show a general decrease in cancer mortality, with the exception of female lung cancer. By contrast, the prevalence is steeply increasing for all considered cancers (with the only exception of cancer of the uterine cervix). This points to the need for more strongly supporting evidence-based prevention campaigns focused on contrasting female smoking, unhealthy nutrition and sun exposure.

Estimates of cancer burden in Abruzzo and Molise.

PubMed

Foschi, Roberto; Viviano, Lorena; Rossi, Silvia

2013-01-01

Abruzzo and Molise are two regions located in the south of Italy, currently without population-based cancer registries. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of cancer incidence, mortality and prevalence for the Abruzzo and Molise regions combined. The MIAMOD method, a back-calculation approach to estimate and project the incidence of chronic diseases from mortality and patient survival, was used for the estimation of incidence and prevalence by calendar year (from 1970 to 2015) and age (from 0 to 99). The survival estimates are based on cancer registry data of southern Italy. The most frequently diagnosed cancers were those of the colon and rectum, breast and prostate, with 1,394, 1,341 and 698 new diagnosed cases, respectively, estimated in 2012. Incidence rates were estimated to increase constantly for female breast cancer, colorectal cancer in men and melanoma in both sexes. For prostate cancer and male lung cancer, the incidence rates increased, reaching a peak, and then decreased. In women the incidence of colorectal and lung cancer stabilized after an initial increase. For stomach and cervical cancers, the incidence rates showed a constant decrease. Prevalence was increasing for all the considered cancer sites with the exception of the cervix uteri. The highest prevalence values were estimated for breast and colorectal cancer with about 12,300 and over 8,200 cases in 2012, respectively. In the 2000s the mortality rates declined for all cancers except skin melanoma and female lung cancer, for which the mortality was almost stable. This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Abruzzo and Molise until 2015. The increase in cancer survival, added to population aging, will inflate the cancer prevalence. In order to better evaluate the cancer burden in the two regions, it would be important to implement cancer registration.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A; Thompson, David M; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization's (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods : A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results : The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions : Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources.

Missing the Mark? A Two Time Point Cohort Study Estimating Intestinal Parasite Prevalence in Informal Settlements in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Cooper, Michael Townsend; Searing, Rapha A.; Thompson, David M.; Bard, David; Carabin, Hélène; Gonzales, Carlos; Zavala, Carmen; Woodson, Kyle; Naifeh, Monique

2017-01-01

Objectives: The World Health Organization’s (WHO) recommendations list Peru as potentially needing prevention of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH). Prevalence of STH varies regionally and remains understudied in the newest informal settlements of the capital city, Lima. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the need for Mass Drug Administration (MDA) of antiparasitic drugs in the newest informal settlements of Lima. The aim of this study was to estimate the season-specific prevalence of STH to determine if these prevalence estimates met the WHO threshold for MDA in 3 informal settlements. Methods: A 2 time point cohort study was conducted among a sample of 140 children aged 1 to 10 years living in 3 purposively sampled informal settlements of Lima, Peru. Children were asked to provide 2 stool samples that were analyzed with the spontaneous sedimentation in tube technique. The season-specific prevalence proportions of MDA-targeted STH were estimated using a hidden (latent) Markov modeling approach to adjust for repeated measurements over the 2 seasons and the imperfect validity of the screening tests. Results: The prevalence of MDA targeted STH was low at 2.2% (95% confidence interval = 0.3% to 6%) and 3.8% (95% confidence interval = 0.7% to 9.3%) among children sampled in the summer and winter months, respectively, when using the most conservative estimate of test sensitivity. These estimates were below the WHO threshold for MDA (20%). Conclusions: Empiric treatment for STH by organizations active in the newest informal settlements is not supported by the data and could contribute to unnecessary medication exposures and poor allocation of resources. PMID:29152541

Synthetic Estimation of the Distribution of Mentally Disabled Adults for Allocations to Ohio's Mental Health Board Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarjoura, David; And Others

1993-01-01

A synthetic method of estimating relative annual prevalence of severely mentally disabled (SMD) adults across Ohio's mental health board areas was evaluated. Indirect evidence of accuracy for the method, which relies on local catchment area data and local census data, is provided by comparison with actual SMD adult counts in federal programs. (SLD)

Prevalence of Depression, Depressive Symptoms, and Suicidal Ideation Among Medical Students: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Rotenstein, Lisa S; Ramos, Marco A; Torre, Matthew; Segal, J Bradley; Peluso, Michael J; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan; Mata, Douglas A

2016-12-06

Medical students are at high risk for depression and suicidal ideation. However, the prevalence estimates of these disorders vary between studies. To estimate the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation in medical students. Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, psycARTICLES, and psycINFO without language restriction for studies on the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation in medical students published before September 17, 2016. Studies that were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used validated assessment methods were included. Information on study characteristics; prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation; and whether students who screened positive for depression sought treatment was extracted independently by 3 investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. Point or period prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation as assessed by validated questionnaire or structured interview. Depression or depressive symptom prevalence data were extracted from 167 cross-sectional studies (n = 116 628) and 16 longitudinal studies (n = 5728) from 43 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 27.2% (37 933/122 356 individuals; 95% CI, 24.7% to 29.9%, I2 = 98.9%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 9.3% to 55.9%. Depressive symptom prevalence remained relatively constant over the period studied (baseline survey year range of 1982-2015; slope, 0.2% increase per year [95% CI, -0.2% to 0.7%]). In the 9 longitudinal studies that assessed depressive symptoms before and during medical school (n = 2432), the median absolute increase in symptoms was 13.5% (range, 0.6% to 35.3%). Prevalence estimates did not significantly differ between studies of only preclinical students and studies of only clinical students (23.7% [95% CI, 19.5% to 28.5%] vs 22.4% [95% CI, 17.6% to 28.2%]; P = .72). The percentage of medical students screening positive for depression who sought psychiatric treatment was 15.7% (110/954 individuals; 95% CI, 10.2% to 23.4%, I2 = 70.1%). Suicidal ideation prevalence data were extracted from 24 cross-sectional studies (n = 21 002) from 15 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of suicidal ideation was 11.1% (2043/21 002 individuals; 95% CI, 9.0% to 13.7%, I2 = 95.8%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 7.4% to 24.2%. In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among medical students was 27.2% and that of suicidal ideation was 11.1%. Further research is needed to identify strategies for preventing and treating these disorders in this population.

Prevalence of Depression, Depressive Symptoms, and Suicidal Ideation Among Medical Students

PubMed Central

Rotenstein, Lisa S.; Ramos, Marco A.; Torre, Matthew; Segal, J. Bradley; Peluso, Michael J.; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan; Mata, Douglas A.

2017-01-01

IMPORTANCE Medical students are at high risk for depression and suicidal ideation. However, the prevalence estimates of these disorders vary between studies. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, and suicidal ideation in medical students. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, psycARTICLES, and psycINFO without language restriction for studies on the prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation in medical students published before September 17, 2016. Studies that were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used validated assessment methods were included. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Information on study characteristics; prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation; and whether students who screened positive for depression sought treatment was extracted independently by 3 investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using stratified meta-analysis and meta-regression. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Point or period prevalence of depression, depressive symptoms, or suicidal ideation as assessed by validated questionnaire or structured interview. RESULTS Depression or depressive symptom prevalence data were extracted from 167 cross-sectional studies (n = 116 628) and 16 longitudinal studies (n = 5728) from 43 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 27.2% (37 933/122 356 individuals; 95% CI, 24.7% to 29.9%, I2 = 98.9%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 9.3% to 55.9%. Depressive symptom prevalence remained relatively constant over the period studied (baseline survey year range of 1982–2015; slope, 0.2% increase per year [95% CI, −0.2% to 0.7%]). In the 9 longitudinal studies that assessed depressive symptoms before and during medical school (n = 2432), the median absolute increase in symptoms was 13.5% (range, 0.6% to 35.3%). Prevalence estimates did not significantly differ between studies of only preclinical students and studies of only clinical students (23.7% [95% CI, 19.5% to 28.5%] vs 22.4% [95% CI, 17.6% to 28.2%]; P = .72). The percentage of medical students screening positive for depression who sought psychiatric treatment was 15.7% (110/954 individuals; 95% CI, 10.2% to 23.4%, I2 = 70.1%). Suicidal ideation prevalence data were extracted from 24 cross-sectional studies (n = 21 002) from 15 countries. All but 1 study used self-report instruments. The overall pooled crude prevalence of suicidal ideation was 11.1% (2043/21 002 individuals; 95% CI, 9.0% to 13.7%, I2 = 95.8%). Summary prevalence estimates ranged across assessment modalities from 7.4% to 24.2%. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among medical students was 27.2% and that of suicidal ideation was 11.1%. Further research is needed to identify strategies for preventing and treating these disorders in this population. PMID:27923088

Mortality among patients due to adverse drug reactions that lead to hospitalization: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Patel, Tejas K; Patel, Parvati B

2018-06-01

The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of mortality among patients due to adverse drug reactions that lead to hospitalisation (fatal ADR Ad ), to explore the heterogeneity in its estimation through subgroup analysis of study characteristics, and to identify system-organ classes involved and causative drugs for fatal ADR Ad . We identified prospective ADR Ad -related studies via screening of the PubMed and Google Scholar databases with appropriate key terms. We estimated the prevalence of fatal ADR Ad using a double arcsine method and explored heterogeneity using the following study characteristics: age groups, wards, study region, ADR definitions, ADR identification methods, study duration and sample size. We examined patterns of fatal ADR Ad and causative drugs. Among 312 full-text articles assessed, 49 studies satisfied the selection criteria and were included in the analysis. The mean prevalence of fatal ADR Ad was 0.20% (95% CI: 0.13-0.27%; I 2  = 93%). The age groups and study wards were the important heterogeneity modifiers. The mean fatal ADR Ad prevalence varied from 0.01% in paediatric patients to 0.44% in the elderly. Subgroup analysis showed a higher prevalence of fatal ADR Ad in intensive care units, emergency departments, multispecialty wards and whole hospitals. Computer-based monitoring systems in combination with other methods detected higher mortality. Intracranial haemorrhage, renal failure and gastrointestinal bleeding accounted for more than 50% of fatal ADR Ad cases. Warfarin, aspirin, renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors and digoxin accounted for 60% of fatal ADR Ad . ADR Ad is an important cause of mortality. Strategies targeting the safer use of warfarin, aspirin, RAS inhibitors and digoxin could reduce the large number of fatal ADR Ad cases.

Evaluation of gill nets, fyke nets, and mark-recapture methods to estimate the number of Hirudinea and Crustacea on fish.

PubMed

Szalai, A J; Dick, T A

1991-12-01

Twenty species of fishes (n = 20,759) were collected from Dauphin Lake, Manitoba, Canada, to determine the types and numbers of ectoparasites they harbored. Counts of ectoparasites on fishes collected with different gear were compared to evaluate different methods of collection and to estimate rates of recruitment of ectoparasites by fishes. Ectoparasites were found on 11 species of fishes and the majority of these were parasitic leeches (Myzobdella moorei, Cystobranchus verilli, and Placobdella montifera) and parasitic Crustacea (Argulus appendiculosus and Lernaea cyprinacea). Some fishes also were infested by neascus-type metacercariae (blackspot) or had tumors (lymphocystis). The prevalence of ectoparasites was correlated with the abundance, feeding habits, and spatial distribution of fish species. Argulus appendiculosus and blackspot were more prevalent on benthic fishes, whereas M. moorei and tumors were more prevalent on limnetic fishes. Mark-recapture records showed that fishes occupying shallow (less than or equal to 1.5 m) water had a higher prevalence of infestation and 28 of 29 infected fishes caught by gill nets were captured in shallow water. Placobdella montifera was the only ectoparasite found on fishes from deep (1.5-3.5 m) water and the only species that was acquired by fishes previously released with no ectoparasite (2 of 239 fishes). The littoral zone (less than or equal to 1.5 m) comprises only 14% of the surface area and 3% of the volume of Dauphin Lake, yet 72% of all gill-netted fishes harboring ectoparasites were collected there. Intensities of ectoparasites estimated from gill net and pound net samples were similar, but prevalence of ectoparasites estimated from samples obtained with gill nets was lower.

Epidemiology of congenital heart disease in Brazil

PubMed Central

Pinto Júnior, Valdester Cavalcante; Branco, Klébia Magalhães P. Castello; Cavalcante, Rodrigo Cardoso; Carvalho Junior, Waldemiro; Lima, José Rubens Costa; de Freitas, Sílvia Maria; Fraga, Maria Nazaré de Oliveira; de Souza, Nayana Maria Gomes

2015-01-01

Introduction Congenital heart disease is an abnormality in the structure or cardiocirculatory function, occurring from birth, even if diagnosed later. It can result in intrauterine death in childhood or in adulthood. Accounted for 6% of infant deaths in Brazil in 2007. Objective To estimate underreporting in the prevalence of congenital heart disease in Brazil and its subtypes. Methods The calculations of prevalence were performed by applying coefficients, giving them function rates for calculations of health problems. The study makes an approach between the literature and the governmental registries. It was adopted an estimate of 9: 1000 births and prevalence rates for subtypes applied to births of 2010. Estimates of births with congenital heart disease were compared with the reports to the Ministry of Health and were studied by descriptive methods with the use of rates and coefficients represented in tables. Results The incidence in Brazil is 25,757 new cases/year, distributed in: North 2,758; Northeast 7,570; Southeast 10,112; South 3,329; and Midwest 1,987. In 2010, were reported to System of Live Birth Information of Ministry of Health 1,377 cases of babies with congenital heart disease, representing 5.3% of the estimated for Brazil. In the same period, the most common subtypes were: ventricular septal defect (7,498); atrial septal defect (4,693); persistent ductus arteriosus (2,490); pulmonary stenosis (1,431); tetralogy of Fallot (973); coarctation of the aorta (973); transposition of the great arteries (887); and aortic stenosis 630. The prevalence of congenital heart disease, for the year of 2009, was 675,495 children and adolescents and 552,092 adults. Conclusion In Brazil, there is underreporting in the prevalence of congenital heart disease, signaling the need for adjustments in the methodology of registration. PMID:26107454

HIV testing in national population-based surveys: experience from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed Central

Mishra, Vinod; Vaessen, Martin; Boerma, J. Ties; Arnold, Fred; Way, Ann; Barrere, Bernard; Cross, Anne; Hong, Rathavuth; Sangha, Jasbir

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To describe the methods used in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to collect nationally representative data on the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and assess the value of such data to country HIV surveillance systems. METHODS: During 2001-04, national samples of adult women and men in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Mali, Kenya, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia were tested for HIV. Dried blood spot samples were collected for HIV testing, following internationally accepted ethical standards. The results for each country are presented by age, sex, and urban versus rural residence. To estimate the effects of non-response, HIV prevalence among non-responding males and females was predicted using multivariate statistical models for those who were tested, with a common set of predictor variables. RESULTS: Rates of HIV testing varied from 70% among Kenyan men to 92% among women in Burkina Faso and Cameroon. Despite large differences in HIV prevalence between the surveys (1-16%), fairly consistent patterns of HIV infection were observed by age, sex and urban versus rural residence, with considerably higher rates in urban areas and in women, especially at younger ages. Analysis of non-response bias indicates that although predicted HIV prevalence tended to be higher in non-tested males and females than in those tested, the overall effects of non-response on the observed national estimates of HIV prevalence are insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based surveys can provide reliable, direct estimates of national and regional HIV seroprevalence among men and women irrespective of pregnancy status. Survey data greatly enhance surveillance systems and the accuracy of national estimates in generalized epidemics. PMID:16878227

Associations between Physical and Cognitive Doping – A Cross-Sectional Study in 2.997 Triathletes

PubMed Central

Dietz, Pavel; Ulrich, Rolf; Dalaker, Robert; Striegel, Heiko; Franke, Andreas G.; Lieb, Klaus; Simon, Perikles

2013-01-01

Purpose This study assessed, for the first time, prevalence estimates for physical and cognitive doping within a single collective of athletes using the randomized response technique (RRT). Furthermore, associations between the use of legal and freely available substances to improve physical and cognitive performance (enhancement) and illicit or banned substances to improve physical and cognitive performance (doping) were examined. Methods An anonymous questionnaire using the unrelated question RRT was used to survey 2,997 recreational triathletes in three sports events (Frankfurt, Regensburg, and Wiesbaden) in Germany. Prior to the survey, statistical power analyses were performed to determine sample size. Logistic regression was used to predict physical and cognitive enhancement and the bootstrap method was used to evaluate differences between the estimated prevalences of physical and cognitive doping. Results 2,987 questionnaires were returned (99.7%). 12-month prevalences for physical and cognitive doping were 13.0% and 15.1%, respectively. The prevalence estimate for physical doping was significantly higher in athletes who also used physical enhancers, as well as in athletes who took part in the European Championship in Frankfurt compared to those who did not. The prevalence estimate for cognitive doping was significantly higher in athletes who also used physical and cognitive enhancers. Moreover, the use of physical and cognitive enhancers were significantly associated and also the use of physical and cognitive doping. Discussion The use of substances to improve physical and cognitive performance was associated on both levels of legality (enhancement vs. doping) suggesting that athletes do not use substances for a specific goal but may have a general propensity to enhance. This finding is important for understanding why people use such substances. Consequently, more effective prevention programs against substance abuse and doping could be developed. PMID:24236038

Sexually Transmitted Diseases and Risk Behaviors among California Farmworkers: Results from a Population-Based Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brammeier, Monique; Chow, Joan M.; Samuel, Michael C.; Organista, Kurt C.; Miller, Jamie; Bolan, Gail

2008-01-01

Context: The prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases and associated risk behaviors among California farmworkers is not well described. Purpose: To estimate the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and associated risk behaviors among California farmworkers. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of population-based survey data from 6…

FASD Prevalence among Schoolchildren in Poland

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Okulicz-Kozaryn, Katarzyna; Borkowska, Magdalena; Brzózka, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Background: Prenatal Alcohol Exposure is a major cause of brain damage and developmental delay, known as Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders (FASD) but in Poland is rarely diagnosed and the scale of problem is not known. Methods: An active case ascertainment approach was applied to estimate the prevalence of FASD among 7-9 years olds. Pre-screening…

Gender and Transportation Access among Community-Dwelling Seniors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dupuis, Josette; Weiss, Deborah R.; Wolfson, Christina

2007-01-01

Purpose: This study estimates the prevalence of problems with transportation in a sample of community-dwelling seniors residing in an urban setting and investigates the role that gender plays in the ability of seniors to remain mobile in their communities. Design and Methods: Data collected as part of a study assessing the prevalence and…

Trends in the Use of Typical and Atypical Antipsychotics in Children and Adolescents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patel, Nick C.; Crismon, M. Lynn; Hoagwood, Kimberly; Johnsrud, Michael T.; Rascati, Karen L.; Wilson, James P.; Jensen, Peter S.

2005-01-01

Objective: To estimate prevalence rates of antipsychotic use in children and adolescents from 1996 to 2001 in three state Medicaid programs (midwestern [MM], southern [SM], and western [WM]) and one private managed care organization (MCO). Method: Prescription claims were used to evaluate antipsychotic prevalence, defined as the number of children…

The prevalence of ADHD in a population-based sample

PubMed Central

Rowland, Andrew S.; Skipper, Betty J.; Umbach, David M.; Rabiner, David L.; Campbell, Richard A.; Naftel, A. Jack; Sandler, Dale P.

2014-01-01

Objective Few studies of ADHD prevalence have used population-based samples, multiple informants, and DSM-IV criteria. In addition, children who are asymptomatic while receiving ADHD mediction often have been misclassified. Therefore, we conducted a population-based study to estimate the prevalence of ADHD in elementary school children using DSM-IV critera. Methods We screened 7587 children for ADHD. Teachers of 81% of the children completed a DSM-IV checklist. We then interviewed parents using a structured interview (DISC). Of these, 72% participated. Parent and teacher ratings were combined to determine ADHD status. We also estimated the proportion of cases attributable to other conditions. Results Overall, 15.5% of our sample (95% confidence interval (C.I.) 14.6%-16.4%) met DSM-IV-TR criteria for ADHD. Over 40% of cases reported no previous diagnosis. With additional information, other conditions explained about 9% of cases. Conclusions The prevalence of ADHD in this population-based sample was higher than the 3-7% commonly reported. To compare study results, the methods used to implement the DSM criteria need to be standardized. PMID:24336124

Does Contraceptive Use in the United States Meet Global Goals?

PubMed

Frederiksen, Brittni N; Ahrens, Katherine A; Moskosky, Susan; Gavin, Loretta

2017-12-01

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) seek to achieve health equity, and they apply to all countries. SDG contraceptive use estimates for the United States are needed to contextualize U.S. performance in relation to that of other countries. Data from the 2011-2013 and 2013-2015 waves of the National Survey of Family Growth were used to calculate three SDG indicators of contraceptive use for U.S. women aged 15-44: contraceptive prevalence, unmet need for family planning and demand for family planning satisfied by modern methods. These measures were calculated separately for married or cohabiting women and for unmarried, sexually active women; differences by sociodemographic characteristics were assessed using t tests from logistic regression analysis. Estimates for married women were compared with 2010-2015 estimates from 94 other countries, most of which were low- or middle-income. For married or cohabiting women, U.S. estimates for contraceptive prevalence, unmet need and demand satisfied by modern methods were 74%, 9% and 80%, respectively; for unmarried, sexually active women, they were 85%, 11% and 82%, respectively. Estimates varied by sociodemographic characteristics, particularly among married or cohabiting women. Five countries performed better than the United States on contraceptive prevalence, 12 on unmet need and four on both measures; seven performed better on demand satisfied by modern methods. There is a need to continue efforts to expand access to contraceptive care in the United States, and to monitor the SDG indicators so that improvement can be tracked over time. Copyright © 2017 by the Guttmacher Institute.

Access to antiepileptic drug therapy in children in Camagüey Province, Cuba

PubMed Central

Arencibia, Zeina Bárzaga; Leyva, Alberto López; Peña, Yordanka Mejías; Reyes, Alba Rosa González; Nápolez, Maurilys Acosta; Carbonell Perdomo, Demetrio; Manzano, Edita Fernández; Choonara, Imti

2012-01-01

Objective To describe access to antiepileptic drug therapy and estimate the prevalence of epilepsy in children in Camagüey Province, Cuba. Methods All the community pharmacies in the province were visited and information collected about the number of children receiving antiepileptic drugs in 2009. Availability and cost of each antiepileptic drug were determined. The prevalence of epilepsy was estimated by determining the number of children receiving antiepileptic drugs. Results There were 923 children who received a total of 977 antiepileptic drugs in Camagüey Province. The estimated prevalence of epilepsy was 5.18 per thousand children which is lower than previously reported rates in other low and lower-middle income countries. Most of the children (871, 94%) received a single antiepileptic drug. Carbamazepine and valproate were the two most frequently prescribed antiepileptic drugs. Antiepileptic drugs were available from the local pharmacy on 76% of occasions. If the antiepileptic drug was not available from the local pharmacy, the parent had to travel to another pharmacy to obtain the medicine. Conclusions The estimated prevalence of epilepsy in children in Cuba is lower than that estimated in other lower-middle income countries. Access to drug therapy in children with epilepsy can be achieved in lower-middle income countries. PMID:23134098

Trends in Adult Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Prevalence, Incidence and Urethral Discharge Case Reporting in Morocco over 1995–2015—Estimates Using the Spectrum-Sexually Transmitted Infection Model

PubMed Central

El-Kettani, Amina; Mahiané, Guy; Bennani, Aziza; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Hançali, Amina; Korenromp, Eline

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on sexually transmitted infections (STI) trends to inform program planning and resource allocation. Methods The Spectrum modeling tool estimated prevalence and incidence of gonorrhea and chlamydia in Morocco's 15- to 49-year-old population, based on prevalence surveys. Incident cases, broken down between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and treated versus untreated, were compared with urethral discharge (UD) case reports, to estimate reporting completeness among treated UD cases. Results Gonorrhea prevalence was estimated at 0.37% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.14–1.0%) in women and 0.32% (0.12–0.87%) in men in 2015; chlamydia prevalences were 3.8% (95% CI, 2.1–6.4%) and 3.0% (95% CI, 1.7–5.1%). Corresponding estimated numbers of new cases in women and men in 2015 were 79,598 (95% CI, 23,918–256,206) and 112,013 (95% CI, 28,700–307,433) for gonorrhea, and 291,908 (95% CI, 161,064–524,270) and 314,032 (95% CI, 186,076–559,133) for chlamydia. Gonorrhea and chlamydia prevalence had declined by an estimated 41% and 27%, respectively, over 1995 to 2015. Prevalence declines probably related to improved STI treatment coverage, and decreasing risk behaviors. Reporting completeness among treated UD cases was estimated at 46% to 77% in 2015. Reported UD cases corresponded to 13% of all estimated (symptomatic and asymptomatic) gonorrhea and chlamydia cases. Conclusions STI declines and improvements in treatment coverage are consistent with Morocco’s introduction of syndromic management in 2000, scale-up of prevention, and declining human immunodeficiency virus incidence. While gonorrhea is four-fold more common as cause of clinical UD cases than chlamydia, Morocco continues to suffer a large, untreated burden of chlamydia. Reliable monitoring of both STIs requires new periodic surveys and/or novel forms of affordable surveillance beyond high-risk populations. PMID:28806354

Sensitivity of the ISO 6579:2002/Amd 1:2007 Standard Method for Detection of Salmonella spp. on Mesenteric Lymph Nodes from Slaughter Pigs

PubMed Central

Mainar-Jaime, R. C.; Andrés, S.; Vico, J. P.; San Román, B.; Garrido, V.

2013-01-01

The ISO 6579:2002/Amd 1:2007 (ISO) standard has been the bacteriological standard method used in the European Union for the detection of Salmonella spp. in pig mesenteric lymph nodes (MLN), but there are no published estimates of the diagnostic sensitivity (Se) of the method in this matrix. Here, the Se of the ISO (SeISO) was estimated on 675 samples selected from two populations with different Salmonella prevalences (14 farms with a ≥20% prevalence and 13 farms with a <20% prevalence) and through the use of latent-class models in concert with Bayesian inference, assuming 100% ISO specificity, and an invA-based PCR as the second diagnostic method. The SeISO was estimated to be close to 87%, while the sensitivity of the PCR reached up to 83.6% and its specificity was 97.4%. Interestingly, the bacteriological reanalysis of 33 potential false-negative (PCR-positive) samples allowed isolation of 19 (57.5%) new Salmonella strains, improving the overall diagnostic accuracy of the bacteriology. Considering the usual limitations of bacteriology regarding Se, these results support the adequacy of the ISO for the detection of Salmonella spp. from MLN and also that of the PCR-based method as an alternative or complementary (screening) test for the diagnosis of pig salmonellosis, particularly considering the cost and time benefits of the molecular procedure. PMID:23100334

Denman Island disease in Washington State, USA: distribution and prevalence in Pacific and Olympia oysters.

PubMed

Elston, Ralph; Friedman, Carolyn; Gustafson, Lori; Meyer, Gary; Rogers, Russell

2015-05-21

We sampled over 2400 wild, feral, and cultured Pacific oysters Crassostrea gigas and Olympia oysters Ostrea lurida in Washington State, USA, from 2002 to 2006 to estimate the prevalence of infection with Mikrocytos mackini, the causative agent of Denman Island disease. Both histology and qualitative PCR methods were used. Estimates of true prevalence of M. mackini infection in C. gigas, after accounting for imperfect test sensitivity, ranged from mean values of 0 to 10.0% by histology and 0 to 8.4% based on pooled PCR samples. M. mackini was not detected in any of the O. lurida samples. Results suggest a lower prevalence of the pathogen and severity of this oyster disease in Washington than that indicated in previous reports from British Columbia, Canada, potentially attributable to higher seawater temperatures in the Washington sample locations.

Association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence among 5-year-old children in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Min-Ji; Kim, Han-Na; Jun, Eun-Joo; Ha, Jung-Eun; Han, Dong-Hun; Kim, Jin-Bom

2015-12-30

The purposes of this study were to estimate the fluoride intake from food and drink in 5-year-old Korean children, and to measure the association between estimated fluoride intake and dental caries prevalence. The study involved a secondary analysis of raw data from the 4(th) Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES; 2007-2009). The study subjects were 167 boys and 147 girls aged 5 years who had undergone both physical and nutritional examination as part of the survey. The KNHANES comprised a health questionnaire, a physical examination, and a nutritional examination. The nutritional examination of KNHANES consisted of 3 parts: a dietary life survey, a food-frequency questionnaire, and a food intake investigation. The food intake investigation used the 24-h recall method, with information being provided by the children's parents. On the basis of this information, we evaluated the fluoride content in a total of 310 food items using the hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDS)-facilitated diffusion method, modified using Taves' microdiffusion method. As part of the KNHANES survey, oral examinations were conducted at a mobile examination centre by trained dentists using dental mirrors under a fluorescent light. These examinations were performed using methods proposed by the World Health Organization. The dietary fluoride intake of 5-year-old Korean children was estimated to be 0.35 mg/day, or 0.016 mg/kg/day. The "decayed or filled surfaces" (dfs) indices of primary teeth were higher in children who had a lower dietary intake of fluoride. There was a significant inverse association between dietary fluoride intake and the prevalence of dental caries. The inverse association between dietary fluoride intake levels and prevalence of dental caries implies that the introduction of community caries prevention programmes may be beneficial. Such programmes would include water fluoridation and a fluoride supplementation programme.

Group Sequential Testing of the Predictive Accuracy of a Continuous Biomarker with Unknown Prevalence

PubMed Central

Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Feng, Ziding

2015-01-01

Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, Koopmeiners and Feng (2011) derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of their approach is that the prevalence can not be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this manuscript, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer. PMID:26537180

[Diabetes mellitus in an adult population of the IMSS (Mexican Institute of Social Security). Results of the National Health Survey 2000].

PubMed

Vázquez-Martínez, José Luis; Gómez-Dantés, Héctor; Fernández-Cantón, Sonia

2006-01-01

To describe the prevalence and control of diabetes in the adult population served by the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social according to data from the National Health Survey 2000 (ENSA-2000). The data for adults from the National Health Survey 2000 was used to estimate and describe the prevalence of diabetes in the population that belongs to the social security system in Mexico. Criteria used to define diabetes mellitus were the medical diagnosis of the disease (MDDM) and the glucose measurement from capillary blood (>126 mg/dL fasting sample and 200 mg/dL in casual blood sample). If diabetes was confirmed only through blood sample, the diabetes case was define as survey finding (SF). Prevalences were estimated for both groups, while means and medians were estimated for the four possible combination groups (SF+, MDDM+, SF+, MDDM-, SF-, MDDM+, SF-, MDDM-). Sampling results were adjusted for population estimates according to the methods established in the ENSA-2000. Diabetes is described according to age, sex, education level, geographic region, background of diabetes in the family, body mass index (BMI), abdominal perimeter. A logistic regression method was used to estimate potential associations with different risk factors. Overall prevalence was 8.7%; for MDDM, it was 7.1%, and for SF, only 1.5%. Glycemia was highest in SF+ and MDDM-, median 292 mg/dL and in MDDM+ but SF-, median 289 mg/dL. Major risk factors were background of diabetes in both parents, abdominal obesity, low educational level age (coef. = 0.5943 per decade) and BMI (coef. = 0.0133). Diabetes in social security population is higher than in the rest of the population, while genetic background, age, educational level, high BMI and abdominal perimeter have important influences in diabetes prevalence in this population. Glucose control is suboptimal even in patients under medical supervision.

A Systematic Review of the Frequency of Neurocyticercosis with a Focus on People with Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Ndimubanzi, Patrick C.; Carabin, Hélène; Budke, Christine M.; Nguyen, Hai; Qian, Ying-Jun; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Reynolds, Stephanie; Stoner, Julie A.

2010-01-01

Background The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of studies reporting the frequency of neurocysticercosis (NCC) worldwide. Methods/Principal Findings PubMed, Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau (CAB) abstracts and 23 international databases were systematically searched for articles published from January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2008. Articles were evaluated for inclusion by at least two researchers focusing on study design and methods. Data were extracted independently using standardized forms. A random-effects binomial model was used to estimate the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy (PWE). Overall, 565 articles were retrieved and 290 (51%) selected for further analysis. After a second analytic phase, only 4.5% of articles, all of which used neuroimaging for the diagnosis of NCC, were reviewed. Only two studies, both from the US, estimated an incidence rate of NCC using hospital discharge data. The prevalence of NCC in a random sample of village residents was reported from one study where 9.1% of the population harboured brain lesions of NCC. The proportion of NCC among different study populations varied widely. However, the proportion of NCC in PWE was a lot more consistent. The pooled estimate for this population was 29.0% (95%CI: 22.9%–35.5%). These results were not sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular study. Conclusion/Significance Only one study has estimated the prevalence of NCC in a random sample of all residents. Hence, the prevalence of NCC worldwide remains unknown. However, the pooled estimate for the proportion of NCC among PWE was very robust and could be used, in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy, to estimate this component of the burden of NCC in endemic areas. The previously recommended guidelines for the diagnostic process and for declaring NCC an international reportable disease would improve the knowledge on the global frequency of NCC. PMID:21072231

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, H. Ross; Butland, Barbara K.; Donkelaar, Aaron Matthew Van; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron;

Satellite-based Estimates of Ambient Air Pollution and Global Variations in Childhood Asthma Prevalence

PubMed Central

Butland, Barbara K.; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Brauer, Michael; Strachan, David P.; Clayton, Tadd; van Dingenen, Rita; Amann, Marcus; Brunekreef, Bert; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank; Lai, Christopher; Lamsal, Lok N.; Martin, Randall V.; One, ISAAC Phase

2012-01-01

Background: The effect of ambient air pollution on global variations and trends in asthma prevalence is unclear. Objectives: Our goal was to investigate community-level associations between asthma prevalence data from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) and satellite-based estimates of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and modelled estimates of ozone. Methods: We assigned satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° and modeled estimates of ozone at a resolution of 1° × 1° to 183 ISAAC centers. We used center-level prevalence of severe asthma as the outcome and multilevel models to adjust for gross national income (GNI) and center- and country-level sex, climate, and population density. We examined associations (adjusting for GNI) between air pollution and asthma prevalence over time in centers with data from ISAAC Phase One (mid-1900s) and Phase Three (2001–2003). Results: For the 13- to 14-year age group (128 centers in 28 countries), the estimated average within-country change in center-level asthma prevalence per 100 children per 10% increase in center-level PM2.5 and NO2 was –0.043 [95% confidence interval (CI): –0.139, 0.053] and 0.017 (95% CI: –0.030, 0.064) respectively. For ozone the estimated change in prevalence per parts per billion by volume was –0.116 (95% CI: –0.234, 0.001). Equivalent results for the 6- to 7-year age group (83 centers in 20 countries), though slightly different, were not significantly positive. For the 13- to 14-year age group, change in center-level asthma prevalence over time per 100 children per 10% increase in PM2.5 from Phase One to Phase Three was –0.139 (95% CI: –0.347, 0.068). The corresponding association with ozone (per ppbV) was –0.171 (95% CI: –0.275, –0.067). Conclusion: In contrast to reports from within-community studies of individuals exposed to traffic pollution, we did not find evidence of a positive association between ambient air pollution and asthma prevalence as measured at the community level. PMID:22548921

Trends in Worker Hearing Loss by Industry Sector, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Masterson, Elizabeth A.; Deddens, James A.; Themann, Christa L.; Bertke, Stephen; Calvert, Geoffrey M.

2015-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence and prevalence of hearing loss for noise-exposed U.S. workers by industry sector and 5-year time period, covering 30 years. Methods Audiograms for 1.8 million workers from 1981–2010 were examined. Incidence and prevalence were estimated by industry sector and time period. The adjusted risk of incident hearing loss within each time period and industry sector as compared with a reference time period was also estimated. Results The adjusted risk for incident hearing loss decreased over time when all industry sectors were combined. However, the risk remained high for workers in Healthcare and Social Assistance, and the prevalence was consistently high for Mining and Construction workers. Conclusions While progress has been made in reducing the risk of incident hearing loss within most industry sectors, additional efforts are needed within Mining, Construction and Healthcare and Social Assistance. PMID:25690583

Subgroup-specific effects of questionnaire wording on population-based estimates of mammography prevalence.

PubMed Central

Siegel, P Z; Qualters, J R; Mowery, P D; Campostrini, S; Leutzinger, C; McQueen, D V

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated whether an apparent downturn in prevalence rates of mammography use reported in the 1992 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) questionnaire resulted from a change in questionnaire wording. METHODS: In a pretest-posttest design (1990-1991 vs 1992), piecewise linear regression analyses were based on monthly prevalence estimates of mammography use among female BRFSS respondents 40 years or older. RESULTS: Self-reported mammography use was lower by 3.5 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5, 5.5) overall--and lower by 13.6 percentage points (95% CI = 2.6, 24.6) among Black women with less than a high school education--when predicted from 1992 data than when predicted from 1990-1991 data. CONCLUSIONS: A change in questionnaire wording in the BRFSS caused demographic-specific effects in population-based estimates of mammography use. PMID:11344896

Geographic Variation and Disparity in Stimulant Treatment of Adults and Children in the United States in 2008

PubMed Central

McDonald, Douglas C.; Jalbert, Sarah Kuck

2016-01-01

Objective This study estimated the prevalence of stimulant treatment among both adults and children at national, state, and county levels during 2008 and explored explanations for wide variations in treatment prevalence. Methods Records of 24.1 million stimulant prescriptions dispensed to insured and uninsured patients were obtained from approximately 76% of U.S. retail pharmacies. Data were weighted to estimate treatment prevalence on March 15, 2008, for all U.S. states and counties. Regression models were used to estimate the associations among the counties’ treatment rates and the characteristics of the counties and their resident populations. Results An estimated 2.5% of children ≤17 years of age (3.5% of males and 1.5% of females) and .6% of persons >17 years of age were being treated with stimulants in March 2008. Treatment prevalence among states varied widely, and variation among counties was even wider. Two-thirds of the variation among counties in treatment prevalence was associated with supply of physicians, socioeconomic composition of the population, and, among children, funding for special education. Rates of children and adults in treatment were highly correlated. Conclusions Wide variations in treatment prevalence signal disparities between established clinical practice guidelines and actual practice, especially for primary care, where most patients prescribed stimulants are managed. Better education and training for physicians may improve identification and treatment, thereby reducing disparities in care for attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and other disabling conditions. PMID:23912601

Using the simple sample count to estimate the frequency of prescription drug neuroenhancement in a sample of Jordan employees.

PubMed

Wolff, Wanja; Sandouqa, Yaser; Brand, Ralf

2016-05-01

Epidemiological research indicates that the use of prescription drugs to enhance cognitive functioning is prevalent in Western countries, however, research on this phenomenon in Arab countries is lacking. Our study aimed to investigate the frequency of neuroenhancement (NE) using prescription drugs in a sample of employees in Jordan. A sample of 1186 employees (37.11±8.37 years old, 495 female), of whom 723 (35.65±7.53 years old, 396 female) served as teachers, completed a paper-pencil questionnaire. The single sample count technique (SSC) was used in order to secure confidential, self-reporting of prescription drug NE. The 12-month prevalence of NE, estimated with the SSC was 15.43%. At 26.16%, the prevalence estimate was markedly higher in the subsample of teachers compared to non-teachers, 0.29%. Surprisingly, 336 participants did not use the SSC and directly affirmed or denied prescription drug NE. These direct responses yielded a prevalence of 11.57% for the full sample, 9.73% for the teachers and 15.60% for the non-teachers. This is the first study of the frequency of NE in an Arab sample. Results indicate that the use of prescription drug NE is not limited to Western countries and that teachers in Jordan might constitute a high-risk population. Further, participants seem to differ in their use of indirect estimation methods for reporting prescription drug NE. For future research, it might be useful to triangulate standard self-reports and indirect estimation methods to assess NE. Possible cultural differences and specific high-risk populations for NE should be investigated further. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaching the Hard-to-Reach: A Probability Sampling Method for Assessing Prevalence of Driving under the Influence after Drinking in Alcohol Outlets

PubMed Central

De Boni, Raquel; do Nascimento Silva, Pedro Luis; Bastos, Francisco Inácio; Pechansky, Flavio; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite

2012-01-01

Drinking alcoholic beverages in places such as bars and clubs may be associated with harmful consequences such as violence and impaired driving. However, methods for obtaining probabilistic samples of drivers who drink at these places remain a challenge – since there is no a priori information on this mobile population – and must be continually improved. This paper describes the procedures adopted in the selection of a population-based sample of drivers who drank at alcohol selling outlets in Porto Alegre, Brazil, which we used to estimate the prevalence of intention to drive under the influence of alcohol. The sampling strategy comprises a stratified three-stage cluster sampling: 1) census enumeration areas (CEA) were stratified by alcohol outlets (AO) density and sampled with probability proportional to the number of AOs in each CEA; 2) combinations of outlets and shifts (COS) were stratified by prevalence of alcohol-related traffic crashes and sampled with probability proportional to their squared duration in hours; and, 3) drivers who drank at the selected COS were stratified by their intention to drive and sampled using inverse sampling. Sample weights were calibrated using a post-stratification estimator. 3,118 individuals were approached and 683 drivers interviewed, leading to an estimate that 56.3% (SE = 3,5%) of the drivers intended to drive after drinking in less than one hour after the interview. Prevalence was also estimated by sex and broad age groups. The combined use of stratification and inverse sampling enabled a good trade-off between resource and time allocation, while preserving the ability to generalize the findings. The current strategy can be viewed as a step forward in the efforts to improve surveys and estimation for hard-to-reach, mobile populations. PMID:22514620

Variance Estimation, Design Effects, and Sample Size Calculations for Respondent-Driven Sampling

PubMed Central

2006-01-01

Hidden populations, such as injection drug users and sex workers, are central to a number of public health problems. However, because of the nature of these groups, it is difficult to collect accurate information about them, and this difficulty complicates disease prevention efforts. A recently developed statistical approach called respondent-driven sampling improves our ability to study hidden populations by allowing researchers to make unbiased estimates of the prevalence of certain traits in these populations. Yet, not enough is known about the sample-to-sample variability of these prevalence estimates. In this paper, we present a bootstrap method for constructing confidence intervals around respondent-driven sampling estimates and demonstrate in simulations that it outperforms the naive method currently in use. We also use simulations and real data to estimate the design effects for respondent-driven sampling in a number of situations. We conclude with practical advice about the power calculations that are needed to determine the appropriate sample size for a study using respondent-driven sampling. In general, we recommend a sample size twice as large as would be needed under simple random sampling. PMID:16937083

Developing alternative methods for determining the incidence, prevalence, and cost burden of coronary heart disease in a corporate population.

PubMed

Beckowski, Meghan Short; Goyal, Abhinav; Goetzel, Ron Z; Rinehart, Christine L; Darling, Kathryn J; Yarborough, Charles M

2012-08-01

To determine the most appropriate methods for estimating the prevalence and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD), the associated risk factors, and health care costs in a corporate setting. Using medical insurance claims data for the period of 2005-2009 from 18 companies in the Thomson Reuters MarketScan reg database, we evaluated three alternative methods. Prevalence of CHD ranged from 2.1% to 4.0% using a method requiring a second confirmatory claim. Annual incidence of CHD ranged from 1.0% to 1.6% using a method requiring 320 days of benefits enrollment in the previous year, and one claim for a diagnosis of CHD. Alternative methods for determining the epidemiologic and cost burden of CHD using insurance claims data were explored. These methods can inform organizations that want to quantify the health and cost burden of various diseases common among an employed population.

Prevalence of peptic ulcer in Iran: Systematic review and meta-analysis methods.

PubMed

Sayehmiri, Kourosh; Abangah, Ghobad; Kalvandi, Gholamreza; Tavan, Hamed; Aazami, Sanaz

2018-01-01

Peptic ulcer is a prevalent problem and symptoms include epigastria pain and heartburn. This study aimed at investigating the prevalence and causes of peptic ulcers in Iran using systematic review and meta-analysis. Eleven Iranian papers published from 2002 to 2016 are selected using valid keywords in the SID, Goggle scholar, PubMed and Elsevier databases. Results of studies pooled using random effects model in meta-analysis. The heterogeneity of the sample was checked using Q test and I 2 index. Total sample size in this study consist of 1335 individuals with peptic ulcer (121 samples per article). The prevalence of peptic ulcers was estimated 34% (95% CI= 0.25 - 0.43). The prevalence of peptic ulcers was 30% and 60% in woman and man respectively. The highest environmental factor (cigarette) has been addressed in 30% (95% CI= 0.23-0.37) of patients. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori was estimated in 62% (95% CI= 0.49-0.75) of patients. The results of this study show that prevalence of peptic ulcers in Iran (34%) is higher that worldwide rate (6% to 15%). There was an increasing trend in the prevalence of peptic ulcer over a decade from 2002 to 2016.

Prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the general population of China: A meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

CAO, XIAO-LAN; ZHONG, BAO-LIANG; XIANG, YU-TAO; UNGVARI, GABOR S.; LAI, KELLY Y. C.; CHIU, HELEN F. K.; CAINE, ERIC D.

2015-01-01

Objective The objective of this meta-analysis is to estimate the pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the general population of Mainland China. Methods A systematic literature search was conducted via the following databases: PubMed, PsycINFO, MEDLINE, China Journals Full-Text Databases, Chongqing VIP database for Chinese Technical Periodicals and Wan Fang Data. Statistical analysis used the Comprehensive Meta-Analysis program. Results Eight studies met the inclusion criteria for the analysis; five reported on the prevalence of suicidal ideation and seven on that of suicide attempts. The estimated lifetime prevalence figures of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts were 3.9% (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 2.5%–6.0%) and 0.8% (95% CI: 0.7%–0.9%), respectively. The estimated female-male ratio for lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts was 1.7 and 2.2, respectively. Only the difference of suicide attempts between the two genders was statistically significant. Conclusion This was the first meta-analysis of the prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in the general population of Mainland China. The pooled lifetime prevalence of both suicidal ideation and suicide attempts are relatively low; however, caution is required when assessing these self-report data. Women had a modestly higher prevalence for suicide attempts than men. The frequency for suicidal ideation and suicide attempts in urban regions was similar to those in rural areas. PMID:26060259

Prevalence and causes of severe visual impairment and blindness among children in the lorestan province of iran, using the key informant method.

PubMed

Razavi, Hessom; Kuper, Hannah; Rezvan, Farhad; Amelie, Khatere; Mahboobi-Pur, Hassan; Oladi, Mohammad Reza; Muhit, Mohammad; Hashemi, Hassan

2010-03-01

To estimate the prevalence and causes of severe visual impairment and blindness among children in Lorestan province of Iran, and to assess the feasibility of the Key Informant Method in this setting. Potential cases were identified using the Key Informant Method, in 3 counties of Lorestan province during June through August 2008, and referred for examination. Causes of severe visual impairment/blindness were determined and categorized using standard World Health Organization methods. Of 123 children referred for examination, 27 children were confirmed to have severe visual impairment/blindness or blindness. The median age was11 years (interquartile range 6-13), and 59% were girls. After adjusting for non-attenders, the estimated prevalence of severe visual impairment/blindness was 0.04% (0.03-0.05). The main site of abnormality was retina (44%), followed by disorders of the whole eye (33%). The majority of causes had a hereditary etiology (70%), which was associated with a family history of blindness (P = 0.002). Potentially avoidable causes of severe visual impairment/blindness were found in 14 children (52%). Almost all children with severe visual impairment/blindness had a history of parental consanguinity (93%). Our findings suggest a moderate prevalence of childhood blindness in the Lorestan province of Iran, a high proportion of which may be avoidable, given improved access to ophthalmic and genetic counselling services in rural areas. The Key Informant Method is feasible in Iran; future research is discussed.

Lifetime Prevalence of Mental Disorders in U.S. Adolescents: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication-Adolescent Supplement (NCS-A)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merikangas, Kathleen Ries; He, Jian-ping; Burstein, Marcy; Swanson, Sonja A.; Avenevoli, Shelli; Cui, Lihong; Benjet, Corina; Georgiades, Katholiki; Swendsen, Joel

2010-01-01

Objective: To present estimates of the lifetime prevalence of "DSM-IV" mental disorders with and without severe impairment, their comorbidity across broad classes of disorder, and their sociodemographic correlates. Method: The National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement NCS-A is a nationally representative face-to-face survey of…

Prevalence and Trends in Smoking: A National Rural Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doescher, Mark P.; Jackson, J. Elizabeth; Jerant, Anthony; Hart, L. Gary

2006-01-01

Context: Cigarette smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the United States. Purpose: To estimate the prevalence of and recent trends in smoking among adults by type of rural location and by state. Methods: Random-digit telephone survey of adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance…

Suicide Ideation in Older Adults: Relationship to Mental Health Problems and Service Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Corna, Laurie M.; Cairney, John; Streiner, David L.

2010-01-01

Purpose: To assess the prevalence of suicide ideation among community-dwelling older adults and the relationship between suicide ideation, major psychiatric disorder, and mental health service use. Design and Methods: We use data from the Canadian Community Health Survey 1.2: Mental Health and Well-being (CCHS 1.2). We estimate the prevalence of…

Reliability of CKD-EPI predictive equation in estimating chronic kidney disease prevalence in the Croatian endemic nephropathy area

PubMed Central

Fuček, Mirjana; Dika, Živka; Karanović, Sandra; Vuković Brinar, Ivana; Premužić, Vedran; Kos, Jelena; Cvitković, Ante; Mišić, Maja; Samardžić, Josip; Rogić, Dunja; Jelaković, Bojan

2017-01-01

Introduction Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a significant public health problem and it is not possible to precisely predict its progression to terminal renal failure. According to current guidelines, CKD stages are classified based on the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria. Aims of this study were to determine the reliability of predictive equation in estimation of CKD prevalence in Croatian areas with endemic nephropathy (EN), compare the results with non-endemic areas, and to determine if the prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 was increased in subjects with EN. Materials and methods A total of 1573 inhabitants of the Croatian Posavina rural area from 6 endemic and 3 non-endemic villages were enrolled. Participants were classified according to the modified criteria of the World Health Organization for EN. Estimated GFR was calculated using Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation (CKD-EPI). Results The results showed a very high CKD prevalence in the Croatian rural area (19%). CKD prevalence was significantly higher in EN then in non EN villages with the lowest eGFR value in diseased subgroup. Conclusions eGFR correlated significantly with the diagnosis of EN. Kidney function assessment using CKD-EPI predictive equation proved to be a good marker in differentiating the study subgroups, remained as one of the diagnostic criteria for EN. PMID:29187794

The prevalence of food allergy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Rona, Roberto J; Keil, Thomas; Summers, Colin; Gislason, David; Zuidmeer, Laurian; Sodergren, Eva; Sigurdardottir, Sigurveig T; Lindner, Titia; Goldhahn, Klaus; Dahlstrom, Jorgen; McBride, Doreen; Madsen, Charlotte

2007-09-01

There is uncertainty about the prevalence of food allergy in communities. To assess the prevalence of food allergy by performing a meta-analysis according to the method of assessment used. The foods assessed were cow's milk, hen's egg, peanut, fish, shellfish, and an overall estimate of food allergy. We summarized the information in 5 categories: self-reported symptoms, specific IgE positive, specific skin prick test positive, symptoms combined with sensitization, and food challenge studies. We systematically searched MEDLINE and EMBASE for publications since 1990. The meta-analysis included only original studies. They were stratified by age groups: infant/preschool, school children, and adults. A total of 934 articles were identified, but only 51 were considered appropriate for inclusion. The prevalence of self-reported food allergy was very high compared with objective measures. There was marked heterogeneity between studies regardless of type of assessment or food item considered, and in most analyses this persisted after age stratification. Self-reported prevalence of food allergy varied from 1.2% to 17% for milk, 0.2% to 7% for egg, 0% to 2% for peanuts and fish, 0% to 10% for shellfish, and 3% to 35% for any food. There is a marked heterogeneity in the prevalence of food allergy that could be a result of differences in study design or methodology, or differences between populations. We recommend that measurements be made by using standardized methods, if possible food challenge. We need to be cautious in estimates of prevalence based only on self-reported food allergy.

Screening for Chlamydia trachomatis in asymptomatic women in Hungary. An epidemiological and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Nyári, T; Nyári, C; Woodward, M; Mészáros, G; Deák, J; Nagy, E; Kovács, L

2001-04-01

A multicenter survey was carried out in order to determine the prevalence and risk factors for Chlamydia trachomatis infection in the population of asymptomatic women in Hungary. Results were used to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis of screening for chlamydial infection in women with asymptomatic genital infections. The non-amplified nucleic acid hybridization method (PACE 2 Gen-Probe) was used to diagnose C. trachomatis and Bayes' theorem was applied to assess the prevalence of the infection. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to differentiate the risk factors for chlamydial infections. According to the test, the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis among 1300 pregnant women was 4.5%. The sensitivity and specificity of the test are estimated to be 70% and 99%, respectively. After Bayes' correction, the overall estimated prevalence of chlamydial infection was 5.1%. There were significant differences in proportions of chlamydial infection in different regions, and also in different age groups and different family status groups. The highest rate was for women aged below 20 years: 16.9%. Cost-effectiveness analysis, with associated sensitivity analysis was carried out for women aged below 20 years. Three screening strategies were compared: using the ELISA method, using amplified Gen-Probe method and no screening. The amplified Gen-Probe method was best provided, the infection prevalence exceeded 16.7%, the PID rate exceeded 24% and the probability of tubal infertility in untreated women exceeded 25%. We conclude that screening with amplified Gen-Probe assays (followed by treatment of positive patients) is the preferred screening strategy for young women in Hungary.

Improvements in prevalence trend fitting and incidence estimation in EPP 2013

PubMed Central

Brown, Tim; Bao, Le; Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Hogan, Daniel R.; Mahy, Mary; Marsh, Kimberly; Mathers, Bradley M.; Puckett, Robert

2014-01-01

Objective: Describe modifications to the latest version of the Joint United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS) Estimation and Projection Package component of Spectrum (EPP 2013) to improve prevalence fitting and incidence trend estimation in national epidemics and global estimates of HIV burden. Methods: Key changes made under the guidance of the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections include: availability of a range of incidence calculation models and guidance for selecting a model; a shift to reporting the Bayesian median instead of the maximum likelihood estimate; procedures for comparison and validation against reported HIV and AIDS data; incorporation of national surveys as an integral part of the fitting and calibration procedure, allowing survey trends to inform the fit; improved antenatal clinic calibration procedures in countries without surveys; adjustment of national antiretroviral therapy reports used in the fitting to include only those aged 15–49 years; better estimates of mortality among people who inject drugs; and enhancements to speed fitting. Results: The revised models in EPP 2013 allow closer fits to observed prevalence trend data and reflect improving understanding of HIV epidemics and associated data. Conclusion: Spectrum and EPP continue to adapt to make better use of the existing data sources, incorporate new sources of information in their fitting and validation procedures, and correct for quantifiable biases in inputs as they are identified and understood. These adaptations provide countries with better calibrated estimates of incidence and prevalence, which increase epidemic understanding and provide a solid base for program and policy planning. PMID:25406747

The effect of sampling, diagnostic criteria and assessment procedures on the observed prevalence of DSM-III-R personality disorders among treated alcoholics.

PubMed

Verheul, R; Hartgers, C; Van den Brink, W; Koeter, M W

1998-03-01

OBJECTIVE. In a recent review of empirical studies on the prevalence of DSM-III-R personality disorders among substance abusers, wide ranges of prevalence rates for overall Axis II, antisocial personality disorder (APD) and borderline personality disorder (BPD) were shown. Utilizing subsamples from within a single study population, the current report explores the effect of sampling, diagnostic criteria and assessment procedures on the observed prevalence of DSM-III-R personality disorders among treated alcoholics. Personality disorders were assessed with the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire Revised (PDQR) at two times of measurement (Time 1 n = 459; Time 2 n = 90). In addition, APD was measured with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI; n = 587). Finally, an unselected subgroup (n = 136) was interviewed with the International Personality Disorder Examination (IPDE). There were few differences between inpatients or outpatients or between males and females. Using the IPDE, the exclusion of substance-related pathology did not affect the prevalence estimate. However, the prevalence rates according to the PDQR varied greatly across age groups. In a representative subsample (n = 109), the prevalence rates also varied greatly across assessment methods (PDQR, 52% vs IPDE, 31%). The prevalence estimate of APD according to the CIDI was related to setting, gender, age group and the applied time-frame. These findings indicate the examined factors to be necessary qualifiers of prevalence estimates and, consequently, support the use of a multiple-criteria/multimethod assessment battery in research as well as in clinical work.

Measuring disease prevalence: a comparison of musculoskeletal disease using four general practice consultation databases

PubMed Central

Jordan, Kelvin; Clarke, Alexandra M; Symmons, Deborah PM; Fleming, Douglas; Porcheret, Mark; Kadam, Umesh T; Croft, Peter

2007-01-01

Background Primary care consultation data are an important source of information on morbidity prevalence. It is not known how reliable such figures are. Aim To compare annual consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions derived from four general practice consultation databases. Design of study Retrospective study of general practice consultation records. Setting Three national general practice consultation databases: i) Fourth Morbidity Statistics from General Practice (MSGP4, 1991/92), ii) Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service (RCGP WRS, 2001), and iii) General Practice Research Database (GPRD, 1991 and 2001); and one regional database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive, 2001). Method Age-sex standardised persons consulting annual prevalence rates for musculoskeletal conditions overall, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and arthralgia were derived for patients aged 15 years and over. Results GPRD prevalence of any musculoskeletal condition, rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis was lower than that of the other databases. This is likely to be due to GPs not needing to record every consultation made for a chronic condition. MSGP4 gave the highest prevalence for osteoarthritis but low prevalence of arthralgia which reflects encouragement for GPs to use diagnostic rather than symptom codes. Conclusion Considerable variation exists in consultation prevalence estimates for musculoskeletal conditions. Researchers and health service planners should be aware that estimates of disease occurrence based on consultation will be influenced by choice of database. This is likely to be true for other chronic diseases and where alternative symptom labels exist for a disease. RCGP WRS may give the most reliable prevalence figures for musculoskeletal and other chronic diseases. PMID:17244418

Who's at Risk When the Power Goes Out? The At-home Electricity-Dependent Population in the United States, 2012

PubMed Central

Molinari, Noelle Angelique M.; Chen, Bei; Krishna, Nevin; Morris, Thomas

2016-01-01

Objectives Natural and man-made disasters can result in power outages that can affect certain vulnerable populations dependent on electrically powered durable medical equipment. This study estimated the size and prevalence of that electricity-dependent population residing at home in the United States. Methods We used the Truven Health MarketScan* 2012 database to estimate the number of employer-sponsored privately insured enrollees by geography, age group, and sex who resided at home and were dependent upon electrically powered durable medical equipment to sustain life. We estimated nationally representative prevalence and used US Census population estimates to extrapolate the national population and produce maps visualizing prevalence and distribution of electricity-dependent populations residing at home. Results As of 2012, among the 175 million persons covered by employer-sponsored private insurance, the estimated number of electricity-dependent persons residing at home was 366 619 (95% confidence interval: 365 700-367 537), with a national prevalence of 218.2 per 100 000 covered lives (95% confidence interval: 217.7-218.8). Prevalence varied significantly by age group (χ2 = 264 289 95, P < .0001) and region (χ2 = 12 286 30, P < .0001), with highest prevalence in those 65 years of age or older and in the South and the West. Across all insurance types in the United States, approximately 685 000 electricity-dependent persons resided at home. Conclusions These results may assist public health jurisdictions addressing unique needs and necessary resources for this particularly vulnerable population. Results can verify and enhance the development of functional needs registries, which are needed to help first responders target efforts to those most vulnerable during disasters affecting the power supply. PMID:26360818

Estimates of cancer burden in Lazio.

PubMed

Rashid, Ivan; Pannozzo, Fabio; Rossi, Silvia; Foschi, Roberto

2013-01-01

Since 1983 a population-based cancer registry has been operating in Lazio which provides incidence and survival data and covers the entire Latina province, amounting to 10% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence for seven major cancers in the Lazio region for the period 1970-2015. The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were breast, colon-rectum and prostate with 5,529, 5,315 and 4,759 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The cancers with increasing incidence trends were breast cancer, lung cancer and skin melanoma in women, and prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma in men. The incidence rates of uterine cervix and stomach cancer decreased. The male lung cancer rates increased, reaching a peak in the late 1980s, and then decreased. Prevalence increased for all the considered cancers except cervix cancer. In 2012 breast, colorectal and prostate cancer had the highest prevalence, with 68,239, 36,617 and 33,934 prevalent cases, respectively. In the final period of the study the mortality declined for all cancers except female lung cancer. In 2012, the highest mortality rates were estimated for lung cancer in both men and women, with 89 and 40 deaths per 100,000, respectively. These estimates give a useful description of the present and future cancer patterns in the Lazio region. Incidence, mortality and prevalence projections provide new information for health resource planning. Furthermore, they point to the need to reinforce the organized screening programs, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

The burden of hospital malnutrition in Spain: methods and development of the PREDyCES® study.

PubMed

Planas Vila, M; Álvarez Hernández, J; García de Lorenzo, A; Celaya Pérez, S; León Sanz, M; García-Lorda, P; Brosa, M

2010-01-01

It is well known that hospital malnutrition is a highly prevalent condition associated to increase morbidity and mortality as well as related healthcare costs. Although previous studies have already measured the prevalence and/or costs of hospital nutrition in our country, their local focus (at regional or even hospital level) make that the true prevalence and economic impact of hospital malnutrition for the National Health System remain unknown in Spain. The PREDyCES® (Prevalence of hospital malnutrition and associated costs in Spain) study was aimed to assess the prevalence of hospital malnutrition in Spain and to estimate related costs. Some aspects made this study unique: a) It was the first study in a representative sample of hospitals of Spain; b) different measures to assess hospital malnutrition (NRS2002, MNA as well as anthropometric and biochemical markers) where used both at admission and discharge and, c) the economic consequences of malnutrition where estimated using the perspective of the Spanish National Health System.

Stroke Prevalence in Children With Sickle Cell Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Munube, Deogratias; Kasirye, Philip; Mupere, Ezekiel; Jin, Zhezhen; LaRussa, Philip; Idro, Richard; Green, Nancy S.

2018-01-01

Objectives. The prevalence of stroke among children with sickle cell disease (SCD) in sub-Saharan Africa was systematically reviewed. Methods. Comprehensive searches of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were performed for articles published between 1980 and 2016 (English or French) reporting stroke prevalence. Using preselected inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened and full-text articles were reviewed. Results. Ten full-text articles met selection criteria. Cross-sectional clinic-based data reported 2.9% to 16.9% stroke prevalence among children with SCD. Using available sickle gene frequencies by country, estimated pediatric mortality, and fixed- and random-effects model, the number of affected individuals is projected as 29 800 (95% confidence interval = 25 571-34 027) and 59 732 (37 004-82 460), respectively. Conclusion. Systematic review enabled the estimation of the number of children with SCD stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. High disease mortality, inaccurate diagnosis, and regional variability of risk hamper more precise estimates. Adopting standardized stroke assessments may provide more accurate determination of numbers affected to inform preventive interventions. PMID:29785408

Stroke Prevalence in Children With Sickle Cell Disease in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Marks, Lianna J; Munube, Deogratias; Kasirye, Philip; Mupere, Ezekiel; Jin, Zhezhen; LaRussa, Philip; Idro, Richard; Green, Nancy S

2018-01-01

Objectives . The prevalence of stroke among children with sickle cell disease (SCD) in sub-Saharan Africa was systematically reviewed. Methods . Comprehensive searches of PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were performed for articles published between 1980 and 2016 (English or French) reporting stroke prevalence. Using preselected inclusion criteria, titles and abstracts were screened and full-text articles were reviewed. Results . Ten full-text articles met selection criteria. Cross-sectional clinic-based data reported 2.9% to 16.9% stroke prevalence among children with SCD. Using available sickle gene frequencies by country, estimated pediatric mortality, and fixed- and random-effects model, the number of affected individuals is projected as 29 800 (95% confidence interval = 25 571-34 027) and 59 732 (37 004-82 460), respectively. Conclusion . Systematic review enabled the estimation of the number of children with SCD stroke in sub-Saharan Africa. High disease mortality, inaccurate diagnosis, and regional variability of risk hamper more precise estimates. Adopting standardized stroke assessments may provide more accurate determination of numbers affected to inform preventive interventions.

A decline in the prevalence of injecting drug users in Estonia, 2005–2009

PubMed Central

Uusküla, A; Rajaleid, K; Talu, A; Abel-Ollo, K; Des Jarlais, DC

2013-01-01

Aims and setting Descriptions of behavioural epidemics have received little attention compared with infectious disease epidemics in Eastern Europe. Here we report a study aimed at estimating trends in the prevalence of injection drug use between 2005 and 2009 in Estonia. Design and methods The number of injection drug users (IDUs) aged 15–44 each year between 2005 and 2009 was estimated using capture-recapture methodology based on 4 data sources (2 treatment data bases: drug abuse and non-fatal overdose treatment; criminal justice (drug related offences) and mortality (injection drug use related deaths) data). Poisson log-linear regression models were applied to the matched data, with interactions between data sources fitted to replicate the dependencies between the data sources. Linear regression was used to estimate average change over time. Findings there were 24305, 12292, 238, 545 records and 8100, 1655, 155, 545 individual IDUs identified in the four capture sources (Police, drug treatment, overdose, and death registry, accordingly) over the period 2005 – 2009. The estimated prevalence of IDUs among the population aged 15–44 declined from 2.7% (1.8–7.9%) in 2005 to 2.0% (1.4–5.0%) in 2008, and 0.9% (0.7–1.7%) in 2009. Regression analysis indicated an average reduction of over 1700 injectors per year. Conclusion While the capture-recapture method has known limitations, the results are consistent with other data from Estonia. Identifying the drivers of change in the prevalence of injection drug use warrants further research. PMID:23290632

Adult Prevalence of Epilepsy in Spain: EPIBERIA, a Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Serrano-Castro, Pedro J.; Mauri-Llerda, Jose Angel; Hernández-Ramos, Francisco José; Sánchez-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Parejo-Carbonell, Beatriz; Quiroga-Subirana, Pablo; Vázquez-Gutierrez, Fernando; Santos-Lasaosa, Sonia; Mendez-Lucena, Carolina; Redondo-Verge, Luis; Tejero-Juste, Carlos; Morandeira-Rivas, Clara; Sancho-Rieger, Jerónimo; Matías-Guiu, Jorge

2015-01-01

Background. This study assesses the lifetime and active prevalence of epilepsy in Spain in people older than 18 years. Methods. EPIBERIA is a population-based epidemiological study of epilepsy prevalence using data from three representative Spanish regions (health districts in Zaragoza, Almería, and Seville) between 2012 and 2013. The study consisted of two phases: screening and confirmation. Participants completed a previously validated questionnaire (EPIBERIA questionnaire) over the telephone. Results. A total of 1741 valid questionnaires were obtained, including 261 (14.99%) raising a suspicion of epilepsy. Of these suspected cases, 216 (82.75%) agreed to participate in phase 2. Of the phase 2 participants, 22 met the International League Against Epilepsy's diagnostic criteria for epilepsy. The estimated lifetime prevalence, adjusted by age and sex per 1,000 people, was 14.87 (95% CI: 9.8–21.9). Active prevalence was 5.79 (95% CI: 2.8–10.6). No significant age, sex, or regional differences in prevalence were detected. Conclusions. EPIBERIA provides the most accurate estimate of epilepsy prevalence in the Mediterranean region based on its original methodology and its adherence to ILAE recommendations. We highlight that the lifetime prevalence and inactive epilepsy prevalence figures observed here were compared to other epidemiological studies. PMID:26783554

Prevalence of and factors associated with distraction among public transit bus drivers

PubMed Central

Griffin, Russell; Huisingh, Carrie; McGwin, Gerald

2015-01-01

Objective Recent research has suggested that driver distraction is a major cause of driving performance impairment and motor vehicle collisions. Research on the topic has focused on passenger vehicles, with studies suggesting that drivers may be distracted nearly 33% of the time spent driving. To date, no study has examined the prevalence of distraction specifically among public transit bus drivers. Methods Over a three-month period, trained investigators observed and recorded distraction behaviors of bus drivers. Distraction prevalence was compared by route characteristics (e.g., geographic area, travel speed) using chi-square test. A general estimating equation logistic regression was used to estimate p-values for distraction prevalence by driver demographics. Results Overall, there was a 39% prevalence of distraction. The most prevalent distractions were due to interactions with another passenger. Distractions were more prevalent among drivers <30 years of age or ≥50 years of age, on city streets or highways (relative to residential streets), and when there were more than 20 passengers. Distractions were the least prevalent in suburban areas, with the highest prevalence observed in city centers and rural areas. Conclusions Driver distraction is a common problem for public transit bus drivers, mainly due to other passengers. Drivers should be educated on the hazards of distracted driving and on ways to avoid distraction. PMID:24433192

Can the prevalence of high blood drug concentrations in a population be estimated by analysing oral fluid? A study of tetrahydrocannabinol and amphetamine.

PubMed

Gjerde, Hallvard; Verstraete, Alain

2010-02-25

To study several methods for estimating the prevalence of high blood concentrations of tetrahydrocannabinol and amphetamine in a population of drug users by analysing oral fluid (saliva). Five methods were compared, including simple calculation procedures dividing the drug concentrations in oral fluid by average or median oral fluid/blood (OF/B) drug concentration ratios or linear regression coefficients, and more complex Monte Carlo simulations. Populations of 311 cannabis users and 197 amphetamine users from the Rosita-2 Project were studied. The results of a feasibility study suggested that the Monte Carlo simulations might give better accuracies than simple calculations if good data on OF/B ratios is available. If using only 20 randomly selected OF/B ratios, a Monte Carlo simulation gave the best accuracy but not the best precision. Dividing by the OF/B regression coefficient gave acceptable accuracy and precision, and was therefore the best method. None of the methods gave acceptable accuracy if the prevalence of high blood drug concentrations was less than 15%. Dividing the drug concentration in oral fluid by the OF/B regression coefficient gave an acceptable estimation of high blood drug concentrations in a population, and may therefore give valuable additional information on possible drug impairment, e.g. in roadside surveys of drugs and driving. If good data on the distribution of OF/B ratios are available, a Monte Carlo simulation may give better accuracy. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Usual Intake Distribution of Vitamins and Prevalence of Inadequacy in a Large Sample of Iranian At-Risk Population: Application of NCI Method.

PubMed

Heidari, Zahra; Feizi, Awat; Azadbakht, Leila; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

2016-01-01

This study provides an assessment of usual intake distribution of vitamins and estimating prevalence of inadequacy and excess among a large representative sample of middle-aged and elderly people in central regions of Iran. A cross-sectional study that is a second follow-up to the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). The study setting included urban and rural areas from 3 cities (Isfahan, Najafabad, and Arak) in central regions of Iran. Subjects included 1922 people aged 40 years and older, with a mean age of 55.9 ± 10.6; 50.4% were male and the majority (79.3%) were urban. Dietary intakes were collected using a 24-hour recall and 2 food records. Distribution of vitamins intake was estimated using traditional and national cancer institute (NCI) methods. The proportion of subjects at risk of vitamin intake inadequacy or excess was estimated using the estimated average requirement (EAR) cut-point method and the tolerable upper intake levels (UL) index. There were differences between values obtained from traditional and NCI methods, particularly in the lower and upper percentiles of the intake distribution. High prevalence of inadequacies for vitamins A, D, E, B2, B3 (especially among females), and B9 was observed. Significant gender differences were found in terms of inadequate intakes for vitamins A, B1, B2, B3, B6, B9, B12, and C (p < 0.05). Imbalanced vitamin intake was observed in the middle-aged and elderly Iranian population. Nutritional interventions particularly through population-based educational programs in order to improve diet variety and consume nutrient supplements may be necessary.

Prevalence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose in Peru: report from PERUDIAB, a national urban population-based longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Seclen, Segundo N; Rosas, Moises E; Arias, Arturo J; Huayta, Ernesto; Medina, Cecilia A

2015-01-01

Objectives We aimed to estimate the prevalences of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in a national sample in Peru and assess the relationships with selected sociodemographic variables. Methods We estimated prevalence in PERUDIAB study participants, a nationwide, stratified urban and suburban population selected by random cluster sampling. Between 2010 and 2012, questionnaires were completed and blood tests obtained from 1677 adults ≥25 years of age. Known diabetes was defined as participants having been told so by a doctor or nurse and/or receiving insulin or oral antidiabetic agents. Newly diagnosed diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL determined during the study and without a previous diabetes diagnosis. IFG was defined as fasting plasma glucose of 100–125 mg/dL. Results The estimated national prevalence of diabetes was 7.0% (95% CI 5.3% to 8.7%) and it was 8.4% (95% CI 5.6% to 11.3%) in metropolitan Lima. No gender differences were detected. Known and newly diagnosed diabetes prevalences were estimated as 4.2% and 2.8%, respectively. A logistic regression response surface model showed a complex trend for an increased prevalence of diabetes in middle-aged individuals and in those with no formal education. Diabetes prevalence was higher in coastal (8.2%) than in highlands (4.5%; p=0.03), and jungle (3.5%; p<0.02) regions. The estimated national prevalence of IFG was 22.4%, higher in males than in females (28.3% vs 19.1%; p<0.001), and higher in coastal (26.4%) than in highlands (17.4%; p=0.03), but not jungle regions (14.9%; p=0.07). Conclusions This study confirms diabetes as an important public health problem, especially for middle-aged individuals and those with no formal education. 40% of the affected individuals were undiagnosed. The elevated prevalence of IFG shows that nearly a quarter of the adult population of Peru has an increased risk of diabetes. PMID:26512325

Hepatitis C in HIV-infected individuals: a systematic review and meta-analysis of estimated prevalence in Africa.

PubMed

Azevedo, Tiago Castro Lopes; Zwahlen, Marcel; Rauch, Andri; Egger, Matthias; Wandeler, Gilles

2016-01-01

Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

Direct medical costs and source of cost differences across the spectrum of cognitive decline: A population-based study

PubMed Central

Leibson, Cynthia L.; Long, Kirsten Hall; Ransom, Jeanine E.; Roberts, Rosebud O.; Hass, Steven L.; Duhig, Amy M.; Smith, Carin Y.; Emerson, Jane A.; Pankratz, V. Shane; Petersen, Ronald C.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Objective cost estimates and source of cost differences are needed across the spectrum of cognition, including cognitively normal (CN), mild-cognitive-impairment (MCI), newly-discovered dementia, and prevalent dementia. METHODS Subjects were a subset of the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging stratified-random sampling of Olmsted County, MN, residents aged 70-89 years. A neurologist reviewed provider-linked medical records to identify prevalent-dementia (review date=index). Remaining subjects were invited to participate in prospective clinical/neuropsychological assessments; participants were categorized as CN, MCI, or newly-discovered-dementia (assessment date=index). Costs for medical services/procedures 1-year pre-index (excluding indirect and long-term care costs) were estimated using line-item provider-linked administrative data. We estimated contributions of care-delivery site and comorbid conditions (including and excluding neuropsychiatric diagnoses) to between-category cost differences. RESULTS Annual mean medical costs for CN, MCI, newly-discovered-dementia, and prevalent-dementia were $6,042, $6,784, $9,431, $11,678 respectively. Hospital inpatient costs contributed 70% of total costs for prevalent dementia and accounted for differences between CN and both prevalent and newly-discovered dementia. Ambulatory costs accounted for differences between CN and MCI. Age-, sex-, education-adjusted differences reached significance for CN versus newly-discovered and prevalent-dementia and for MCI versus prevalent-dementia. After considering all comorbid diagnoses, between-category differences were reduced (e.g., prevalent-dementia minus MCI (from $4,842 to $3,575); newly-discovered-dementia minus CN (from $3,578 to$711). Following exclusion of neuropsychiatric diagnoses from comorbidity adjustment, between-category differences tended to revert to greater differences. CONCLUSIONS Cost estimates did not differ significantly between CN and MCI. Substantial differences between MCI and prevalent dementia reflected high inpatient costs for dementia and appear partly related to co-occurring Mental Disorders. Such comparisons can help inform models aimed at identifying where, when, and for which individuals proposed interventions might be cost-effective. PMID:25858682

Spatial Modelling of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections in Kenya: A Disease Control Planning Tool

PubMed Central

Pullan, Rachel L.; Gething, Peter W.; Smith, Jennifer L.; Mwandawiro, Charles S.; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Gitonga, Caroline W.; Hay, Simon I.; Brooker, Simon

2011-01-01

Background Implementation of control of parasitic diseases requires accurate, contemporary maps that provide intervention recommendations at policy-relevant spatial scales. To guide control of soil transmitted helminths (STHs), maps are required of the combined prevalence of infection, indicating where this prevalence exceeds an intervention threshold of 20%. Here we present a new approach for mapping the observed prevalence of STHs, using the example of Kenya in 2009. Methods and Findings Observed prevalence data for hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were assembled for 106,370 individuals from 945 cross-sectional surveys undertaken between 1974 and 2009. Ecological and climatic covariates were extracted from high-resolution satellite data and matched to survey locations. Bayesian space-time geostatistical models were developed for each species, and were used to interpolate the probability that infection prevalence exceeded the 20% threshold across the country for both 1989 and 2009. Maps for each species were integrated to estimate combined STH prevalence using the law of total probability and incorporating a correction factor to adjust for associations between species. Population census data were combined with risk models and projected to estimate the population at risk and requiring treatment in 2009. In most areas for 2009, there was high certainty that endemicity was below the 20% threshold, with areas of endemicity ≥20% located around the shores of Lake Victoria and on the coast. Comparison of the predicted distributions for 1989 and 2009 show how observed STH prevalence has gradually decreased over time. The model estimated that a total of 2.8 million school-age children live in districts which warrant mass treatment. Conclusions Bayesian space-time geostatistical models can be used to reliably estimate the combined observed prevalence of STH and suggest that a quarter of Kenya's school-aged children live in areas of high prevalence and warrant mass treatment. As control is successful in reducing infection levels, updated models can be used to refine decision making in helminth control. PMID:21347451

A description of HIV prevalence trends in Nigeria from 2001 to 2010: what is the progress, where is the problem?

PubMed Central

Bashorun, Adebobola; Nguku, Patrick; Kawu, Issa; Ngige, Evelyn; Ogundiran, Adeniyi; Sabitu, Kabir; Nasidi, Abdulsalam; Nsubuga, Peter

2014-01-01

Introduction Nigeria's population of 160 million and estimated HIV prevalence of 3.34% (2011) makes Nigeria the second highest HIV burden worldwide, with 3.2 million people living with HIV (PLHIV). In 2010, US government spent about US$456.5 million on the Nigerian epidemic. Antenatal clinic (ANC) HIV sero-prevalence sentinel survey has been conducted biennially in Nigeria since 1991 to track the epidemic. This study looked at the trends of HIV in Nigeria over the last decade to identify progress and needs. Methods We conducted description of HIV sero-prevalence sentinel cross-sectional surveys conducted among pregnant women attending ANC from 2001 to 2010, which uses consecutive sampling and unlinked-anonymous HIV testing (UAT) in160 sentinel facilities. 36,000 blood samples were collected and tested. We used Epi-Info to determine national and state HIV prevalence and trends. The Estimation and Projection Package with Spectrum were used to estimate/project the burden of infection. Results National ANC HIV prevalence rose from 1.8% (1991) to 5.8% (2001) and dropped to 4.1% (2010). Since 2001, states in the center, and south of Nigeria had higher prevalence than the rest, with Benue and Cross Rivers notable. Benue was highest in 2001 (14%), 2005 (10%), and 2010 (12.7%). Overall, eight states (21.6%) showed increased HIV prevalence while six states (16.2%) had an absolute reduction of at least 2% from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, Nigeria was estimated to have 3.19 million PLHIV, with the general population prevalence projected to drop from 3.34% in 2011 to 3.27% in 2012. Conclusion Examining a decade of HIV ANC surveillance in Nigeria revealed important differences in the epidemic in states that need to be examined further to reveal key drivers that can be used to target future interventions. PMID:25328622

Inter-informant agreement and prevalence estimates for mood syndromes: direct interview vs. family history method.

PubMed

Vandeleur, C L; Rothen, S; Lustenberger, Y; Glaus, J; Castelao, E; Preisig, M

2015-01-15

The use of the family history method is recommended in family studies as a type of proxy interview of non-participating relatives. However, using different sources of information can result in bias as direct interviews may provide a higher likelihood of assigning diagnoses than family history reports. The aims of the present study were to: (1) compare diagnoses for threshold and subthreshold mood syndromes from interviews to those relying on information from relatives; (2) test the appropriateness of lowering the diagnostic threshold and combining multiple reports from the family history method to obtain comparable prevalence estimates to the interviews; (3) identify factors that influence the likelihood of agreement and reporting of disorders by informants. Within a family study, 1621 informant-index subject pairs were identified. DSM-5 diagnoses from direct interviews of index subjects were compared to those derived from family history information provided by their first-degree relatives. (1) Inter-informant agreement was acceptable for Mania, but low for all other mood syndromes. (2) Except for Mania and subthreshold depression, the family history method provided significantly lower prevalence estimates. The gap improved for all other syndromes after lowering the threshold of the family history method. (3) Individuals who had a history of depression themselves were more likely to report depression in their relatives. Low proportion of affected individuals for manic syndromes and lack of independence of data. The higher likelihood of reporting disorders by affected informants entails the risk of overestimation of the size of familial aggregation of depression. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The dissemination of smoking cessation methods for pregnant women: achieving the year 2000 objectives.

PubMed Central

Windsor, R A; Li, C Q; Lowe, J B; Perkins, L L; Ershoff, D; Glynn, T

1993-01-01

The smoking prevalence rate among adult women and pregnant women has decreased only 0.3 to 0.5% per year since 1969. Without a nationwide dissemination of efficacious smoking cessation methods based on these trends, by the year 2000 the smoking prevalence among pregnant women will be approximately 18%. This estimate is well above the US Department of Health and Human Services Year 2000 Objective of 10%. The US dissemination of tested smoking cessation methods could help an additional 12,900 to 155,000 pregnant smokers annually and 600,000 to 1,481,000 cumulatively to quit smoking during the 1990s. Dissemination could help achieve 31 to 78% of the Year 2000 Objectives for pregnancy smoking prevalence. (With dissemination, at best a 15% smoking prevalence during pregnancy, rather than the 10% objective, is likely to be observed.) Our results confirm a well-documented need for a national campaign to disseminate smoking cessation methods. PMID:8427318

Contraceptive Dynamics in Rural Northern Malawi: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Dasgupta, Aisha Nandini Zoe; Zaba, Basia; Crampin, Amelia C.

2018-01-01

Context Increased use of contraceptives in Malawi has not translated into a commensurate reduction in fertility, but the reason is unknown. Insight into contraceptive switching and discontinuation may shed light on this conundrum and on whether the commonly used modern contraceptive prevalence rate (mCPR) is the best indicator of family planning program performance. Methods A one-year prospective longitudinal data set was created from patient-held family planning cards of 4,678 reproductive-age women living in a demographic surveillance site in rural northern Malawi. Contraceptive service data recorded on the women’s cards by providers were linked to their socioeconomic, demographic and health data. Contraceptive point prevalence estimates calculated from these data were compared with mCPR estimates from cross-sectional surveys. Survival analyses examined contraceptive adherence. Results The contraceptive point prevalence of 35% was slightly lower than comparable cross-sectional estimates of mCPR. Only 51% of users of the injectable—the most widely used modern method—received their first reinjection on time, and just 15% adhered to the method for 12 months. Although various study variables were associated with contraceptive use, none were associated with adherence. Conclusions Gaps in and discontinuation of use of the injectable may play a role in the discrepancy between mCPR and fertility. Interventions to help women adhere to injectable use and to promote long-acting methods should be strengthened. PMID:26600568

Prevalence and Intensity of Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis, Prevalence of Malaria and Nutritional Status of School Going Children in Honduras

PubMed Central

Mejia Torres, Rosa Elena; Franco Garcia, Dora Nelly; Fontecha Sandoval, Gustavo Adolfo; Hernandez Santana, Adriana; Singh, Prabhjot; Mancero Bucheli, Sandra Tamara; Saboya, Martha; Paz, Mirian Yolanda

2014-01-01

Background Many small studies have been done in Honduras estimating soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) prevalence but a country-wide study was last done in 2005. The country has the highest burden of malaria among all Central American countries. The present study was done to estimate country-wide STH prevalence and intensity, malaria prevalence and nutritional status in school going children. Methods and Findings A cross-sectional study was conducted following PAHO/WHO guidelines to select a sample of school going children of 3rd to 5th grades, representative of ecological regions in the country. A survey questionnaire was filled; anthropometric measurements, stool sample for STH and blood sample for malaria were taken. Kato-Katz method was used for STH prevalence and intensity and rapid diagnostic tests, microscopy, and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were used for malaria parasite detection. A total of 2554 students were studied of which 43.5% had one or more STH. Trichuriasis was the most prevalent (34%) followed by ascariasis (22.3%) and hookworm (0.9%). Ecological regions II (59.7%) and VI (55.6%) in the north had the highest STH prevalence rates while IV had the lowest (10.6%). Prevalence of one or more high intensity STH was low (1.6%). Plasmodium vivax was detected by PCR in only 5 students (0.2%), all of which belonged to the same municipality; no P. falciparum infection was detected. The majority of children (83%) had normal body mass index for their respective age but a significant proportion were overweight (10.42%) and obese (4.35%). Conclusions Biannual deworming campaigns would be necessary in ecological regions II and VI, where STH prevalence is >50%. High prevalence of obesity in school going children is a worrying trend and portends of future increase in obesity related diseases. Malaria prevalence, both symptomatic and asymptomatic, was low and provides evidence for Honduras to embark on elimination of the disease. PMID:25330010

Prevalence of School Bullying among Secondary Students in Taiwan: Measurements with and without a Specific Definition of Bullying

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Li-Ming; Cheng, Ying-Yao

2013-01-01

Estimates of bullying and bullying victimization rates vary depending on how these rates are measured. The current study used survey methods of the World Health Organisation (WHO) to investigate the prevalence of school bullying among secondary students in Taiwan. We also examined whether results differed between surveys with and without…

A National Study of Obesity Prevalence and Trends by Type of Rural County

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, J. Elizabeth; Doescher, Mark P.; Jerant, Anthony F.; Hart, L. Gary

2005-01-01

Context: Obesity is epidemic in the United States, but information on this trend by type of rural locale is limited. Purpose: To estimate the prevalence of and recent trends in obesity among US adults residing in rural locations. Methods: Analysis of data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) for the years 1994-1996 (n =…

A Population-Based Study of Childhood Sexual Contact in China: Prevalence and Long-Term Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Ye; Parish, William L.; Laumann, Edward O.

2008-01-01

Objectives: This study provides national estimates of the prevalence of childhood sexual contact and its association with sexual well-being and psychological distress among adults in China. Method: A national stratified probability sample of 1,519 women and 1,475 men aged 20-64 years in urban China completed a computer-administered survey in…

Estimating equivalent cutoff thresholds for drugs in blood and oral fluid using prevalence regression: a study of tetrahydrocannabinol and amphetamine.

PubMed

Gjerde, Hallvard; Verstraete, Alain G

2011-10-10

To validate a method for determining equivalent drug cutoff concentrations for tetrahydrocannabinol and amphetamine in blood and oral fluid, which ensures that the drug prevalence in samples of blood and oral fluid taken simultaneously is equal. A method using regression analysis of drug concentrations for defined percentiles in blood and oral fluid was developed. The accuracy and precision of this technique was investigated. As study populations, 311 cannabis users and 197 amphetamine users from the Rosita-2 Project were used. A total of 80 paired oral fluid and blood concentrations were needed to determine accurate regression formulae. When using the formulae to calculate drug cutoff concentrations in oral fluid corresponding to 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 8.0 and 10.0 ng/ml tetrahydrocannabinol in blood and 200, 400, 600, 800 and 1000 ng/ml amphetamine in blood, the accuracy was better than 100 ± 20% compared to actual prevalence in blood with precision better than ± 20%. Prevalence regression may be a useful tool in estimating equivalent cutoff concentrations in blood and oral fluid. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder among children and adolescents in Spain: a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a commonly diagnosed neuropsychiatric disorder in childhood, but the frequency of the condition is not well established in many countries. The aim of the present study was to quantify the overall prevalence of ADHD among children and adolescents in Spain by means of a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods PubMed/MEDLINE, IME, IBECS and TESEO were comprehensively searched. Original reports were selected if they provided data on prevalence estimates of ADHD among people under 18 years old in Spain and were cross-sectional, observational epidemiological studies. Information from included studies was systematically extracted and evaluated. Overall pooled-prevalence estimates of ADHD were calculated using random-effects models. Sources of heterogeneity were explored by means sub-groups analyses and univariate meta-regressions. Results Fourteen epidemiological studies (13,026 subjects) were selected. The overall pooled-prevalence of ADHD was estimated at 6.8% [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.9 – 8.8%] representing 361,580 (95% CI 260,550 – 467,927) children and adolescents in the community. There was significant heterogeneity (P < 0.001), which was incompletely explained by subgroup analyses and meta-regressions. Conclusions Our findings suggest that the prevalence of ADHD among children and adolescents in Spain is consistent with previous studies conducted in other countries and regions. This study represents a first step in estimating the national burden of ADHD that will be essential to building evidence-based programs and services. PMID:23057832

Prevalence of Transgender Depends on the “Case” Definition: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Collin, Lindsay; Reisner, Sari L.; Tangpricha, Vin; Goodman, Michael

2016-01-01

Background We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate how various definitions of “transgender” may affect prevalence estimates. Methods PubMed, Embase, and Medline were searched to identify studies reporting prevalence estimates of transgender in a population. All studies were grouped based on the case definition applied to the numerator. Summary estimates were derived using a random-effects model for total prevalence of transgender and for male-to-female (MTF) and female-to-male (FTM) subgroups. Overall and stratum-specific meta-prevalence estimates (mPs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were accompanied by tests for heterogeneity, and meta-regressions to assess sources of heterogeneity. Results A total of 32 studies met the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Of those, 27 studies provided necessary data for a meta-analysis. Overall mP (95% CI) per 100,000 population was 9.2 (4.9, 13.6) for surgical or hormonal gender affirmation therapy and 6.8 (4.6–9.1) for transgender-related diagnoses. Among studies assessing self-reported transgender identity, the mP was 871 (95% 519, 1224); however this result was influenced by a single outlier study. After removal of that study, the mP changed to 355 (95% CI 144, 566). Significant heterogeneity was observed in most analyses. Conclusions The empirical literature on the prevalence of transgender highlights the importance of adhering to specific case definitions because the results may range by orders of magnitude. Standardized and routine collection of transgender data is recommended. PMID:27045261

The Incidence and Prevalence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in San Francisco County, California: The California Lupus Surveillance Project.

PubMed

Dall'Era, Maria; Cisternas, Miriam G; Snipes, Kurt; Herrinton, Lisa J; Gordon, Caroline; Helmick, Charles G

2017-10-01

Estimates of the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in the US have varied widely. The purpose of this study was to conduct the California Lupus Surveillance Project (CLSP) to determine credible estimates of SLE incidence and prevalence, with a special focus on Hispanics and Asians. The CLSP, which is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is a population-based registry of individuals with SLE residing in San Francisco County, CA, from January 1, 2007 through December 31, 2009. Data sources included hospitals, rheumatologists, nephrologists, commercial laboratories, and a state hospital discharge database. We abstracted medical records to ascertain SLE cases, which we defined as patients who met ≥4 of the 11 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria for SLE. We estimated crude and age-standardized incidence and prevalence, which were stratified by sex and race/ethnicity. The overall age-standardized annual incidence rate was 4.6 per 100,000 person-years. The average annual period prevalence was 84.8 per 100,000 persons. The age-standardized incidence rate in women and men was 8.6 and 0.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. This rate was highest among black women (30.5), followed by Hispanic women (8.9), Asian women (7.2), and white women (5.3). The age-standardized prevalence in women per 100,000 persons was 458.1 in blacks, 177.9 in Hispanics, 149.7 in Asians, and 109.8 in whites. Capture-recapture modeling estimated 33 additional incident cases and 147 additional prevalent cases. Comprehensive methods that include intensive case-finding provide more credible estimates of SLE in Hispanics and Asians, and confirm racial and ethnic disparities in SLE. The disease burden of SLE is highest in black women, followed by Hispanic women, Asian women, and white women. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

Prevalence of epilepsy in rural Kansas.

PubMed

Ablah, Elizabeth; Hesdorffer, Dale C; Liu, Yi; Paschal, Angelia M; Hawley, Suzanne; Thurman, David; Hauser, W Allen

2014-05-01

To determine the prevalence of active epilepsy in two southeastern rural Kansas counties. Medical records were abstracted from the emergency rooms, out- and inpatient services and clinics of 9 hospitals, from 10 doctors' offices, and 1 nursing home in and surrounding the two counties. Letters were mailed from hospitals and doctors' offices to invite their potentially eligible patients to participate in an interview. Medical record information and the interview, when available, were used for the final determination of active epilepsy, seizure type, etiology, syndrome, age, and gender in consensus conferences. Prevalence of epilepsy was calculated, and capture-recapture methodology, which estimates prevalence based on what is known about the population, was employed to assess active epilepsy in the two counties. This study identified 404 individuals with active prevalent epilepsy who visited at least one of the 20 facilities during the observation period. The overall prevalence of active epilepsy was 7.2 per 1000. The seizure type for 71.3% of prevalent cases was unknown; among the 76 cases with known and classifiable seizure type, 55.3% had focal with secondary generalized seizures. Among the 222 cases with classifiable etiology, 53.1% were idiopathic/cryptogenic. About 75% (n=301) were captured at only one center, 72% (n=75) of the remaining 103 patients were captured at two centers, and 28 patients were identified at three or more centers. The capture-recapture assessment yielded an estimation of 982 prevalent patients. The overall estimated prevalence of epilepsy in the two Kansas counties using capture-recapture was 17 per 1000. The crude prevalence of epilepsy, using medical record survey methods, was similar to, but on the high end, of other total population prevalence studies in the United States. The capture-recapture assessment suggested that epilepsy prevalence might be considerably higher than the crude prevalence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus by veterinarians in Australia.

PubMed

Jordan, D; Simon, J; Fury, S; Moss, S; Giffard, P; Maiwald, M; Southwell, P; Barton, M D; Axon, J E; Morris, S G; Trott, D J

2011-05-01

To estimate the prevalence of carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) among Australian veterinarians. Individuals attending veterinary conferences in Australia in 2009 were recruited to provide nasal swabs and complete a questionnaire about their professional activities. Swabs were processed by standard methods for detecting MRSA and questionnaire responses were used to group veterinarians according to their areas of major work emphasis (species and practice type). Prevalence was estimated for each of these grouping and contingency tables and regression tree analysis used to explain the variation in MRSA carriage. Among the 771 respondents 'industry and government veterinarians' (controls) had the lowest prevalence of MRSA carriage at 0.9%. Veterinarians with horses as a major area of work emphasis had a prevalence of 11.8% (13-fold that of controls) and those whose only major emphasis was horses had a prevalence of 21.4% (23-fold that of controls). Veterinarians with dogs and cats as a major activity had a 4.9% prevalence (5-fold that of controls). Prevalence rates for other major activities (pigs, dairy and beef cattle, avian and wildlife) were also increased, but were estimated from smaller numbers of respondents. Regression tree analysis clearly isolated equine veterinarians and dog and cat practitioners as groups at increased risk of carriage of MRSA. Carriage of MRSA is a notable occupational health issue for veterinarians in clinical practice in Australia, particularly those who work with horses. © 2011 The Authors. Australian Veterinary Journal © 2011 Australian Veterinary Association.

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003–2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country’s own data. Methods Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003–2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). Results According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25–34 years age group. Conclusions The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM. PMID:23705638

Modeling the Effects of E-Cigarettes on Smoking Behavior: Implications for Future Adult Smoking Prevalence

PubMed Central

Cherng, Sarah T.; Tam, Jamie; Christine, Paul; Meza, Rafael

2016-01-01

Background Electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use has increased rapidly in recent years. Given the unknown effects of e-cigarette use on cigarette smoking behaviors, e-cigarette regulation has become the subject of considerable controversy. In the absence of longitudinal data documenting the long-term effects of e-cigarette use on smoking behavior and population smoking outcomes, computational models can guide future empirical research and provide insights into the possible effects of e-cigarette use on smoking prevalence over time. Methods Agent-based model examining hypothetical scenarios of e-cigarette use by smoking status and e-cigarette effects on smoking initiation and smoking cessation. Results If e-cigarettes increase individual-level smoking cessation probabilities by 20%, the model estimates a 6% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2060 compared to baseline model (no effects) outcomes. In contrast, e-cigarette use prevalence among never smokers would have to rise dramatically from current estimates, with e-cigarettes increasing smoking initiation by more than 200% relative to baseline model estimates in order to achieve a corresponding 6% increase in smoking prevalence by 2060. Conclusions Based on current knowledge of the patterns of e-cigarette use by smoking status and the heavy concentration of e-cigarette use among current smokers, the simulated effects of e-cigarettes on smoking cessation generate substantially larger changes to smoking prevalence relative to their effects on smoking initiation. PMID:27093020

The Problem of Rarity: Estimation of Prevalence in Rare Disease.

PubMed

Auvin, Stéphane; Irwin, John; Abi-Aad, Paul; Battersby, Alysia

2018-05-01

From a disease's first description to its wider recognition, factors such as changes over time in diagnostic criteria, available therapies, and subsequent mortality rates may influence diagnosed prevalence of rare diseases. To propose a novel methodology for estimating the true prevalence of rare diseases using current incidence adjusted to changing diagnostic practice over time. This article focuses on rare diseases whose diagnosis may have changed over time, and raises the hypothesis that prevalence calculated from current incidence may be higher than diagnosed prevalence, which may lag behind the current disease definition and diagnostic methods. A rare epileptic encephalopathy, Dravet syndrome (DS), is explored as an illustrative example. A targeted literature review was performed for DS to identify all reported incidence, prevalence, and mortality and depict how diagnostic practice has evolved over time. A conceptual model was developed to calculate prevalence derived from current incidence figures alone (incidence-derived prevalence) or incidence adjusted with factors that cause a diagnostic drag (diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence). We identified sufficient publications of incidence and prevalence to test the conceptual model. For pediatric patients with DS, diagnosed prevalence in the field (as reported in current literature) matches incidence-derived prevalence, whereas for adult patients, it is overestimated by incidence-derived prevalence, but not by diagnostic awareness-adjusted prevalence. Care should be taken with current incidence-derived prevalence figures to not overstate the prevalence in rare diseases, as methodological challenges in counting small populations, coupled with advances in rare disease discovery, may cause discrepancies. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National Economic Burden Associated with Management of Periodontitis in Malaysia.

PubMed

Mohd Dom, Tuti Ningseh; Ayob, Rasidah; Abd Muttalib, Khairiyah; Aljunid, Syed Mohamed

2016-01-01

Objectives. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic burden associated with the management of periodontitis in Malaysia from the societal perspective. Methods. We estimated the economic burden of periodontitis by combining the disease prevalence with its treatment costs. We estimated treatment costs (with 2012 value of Malaysian Ringgit) using the cost-of-illness approach and included both direct and indirect costs. We used the National Oral Health Survey for Adults (2010) data to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis and 2010 national census data to estimate the adult population at risk for periodontitis. Results. The economic burden of managing all cases of periodontitis at the national level from the societal perspective was approximately MYR 32.5 billion, accounting for 3.83% of the 2012 Gross Domestic Product of the country. It would cost the nation MYR 18.3 billion to treat patients with moderate periodontitis and MYR 13.7 billion to treat patients with severe periodontitis. Conclusion. The economic burden of periodontitis in Malaysia is substantial and comparable with that of other chronic diseases in the country. This is attributable to its high prevalence and high cost of treatment. Judicious application of promotive, preventive, and curative approaches to periodontitis management is decidedly warranted.

Bayesian Small Area Estimates of Diabetes Incidence by United States County, 2009

PubMed Central

Barker, Lawrence E.; Thompson, Theodore J.; Kirtland, Karen A; Boyle, James P; Geiss, Linda S; McCauley, Mary M.; Albright, Ann L.

2015-01-01

In the United States, diabetes is common and costly. Programs to prevent new cases of diabetes are often carried out at the level of the county, a unit of local government. Thus, efficient targeting of such programs requires county-level estimates of diabetes incidence–the fraction of the non-diabetic population who received their diagnosis of diabetes during the past 12 months. Previously, only estimates of prevalence–the overall fraction of population who have the disease–have been available at the county level. Counties with high prevalence might or might not be the same as counties with high incidence, due to spatial variation in mortality and relocation of persons with incident diabetes to another county. Existing methods cannot be used to estimate county-level diabetes incidence, because the fraction of the population who receive a diabetes diagnosis in any year is too small. Here, we extend previously developed methods of Bayesian small-area estimation of prevalence, using diffuse priors, to estimate diabetes incidence for all U.S. counties based on data from a survey designed to yield state-level estimates. We found high incidence in the southeastern United States, the Appalachian region, and in scattered counties throughout the western U.S. Our methods might be applicable in other circumstances in which all cases of a rare condition also must be cases of a more common condition (in this analysis, “newly diagnosed cases of diabetes” and “cases of diabetes”). If appropriate data are available, our methods can be used to estimate proportion of the population with the rare condition at greater geographic specificity than the data source was designed to provide. PMID:26279666

Measuring Victimization inside Prisons: Questioning the Questions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolff, Nancy; Shi, Jing; Bachman, Ronet

2008-01-01

Violence and victimization inside the prison setting are accepted as facts, although the facts about their prevalence remain uncertain. Variation in the methods used to estimate rates of sexual and physical victimization contribute to the wide range in estimates appearing in the prison literature. This article focuses on the questions used in the…

Estimate of the potential impact of folic acid fortification of corn masa flour on the prevention of neural tube defects.

PubMed

Tinker, Sarah C; Devine, Owen; Mai, Cara; Hamner, Heather C; Reefhuis, Jennita; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Dowling, Nicole F; Honein, Margaret A

2013-10-01

Hispanics in the US have a higher prevalence of neural tube defect (NTD) -affected pregnancies than non-Hispanic whites, and lower median total folic acid (FA) intake. FA fortification of corn masa flour (CMF) is a policy-level intervention for NTD prevention; however, the impact on NTD prevalence has not been estimated. We developed a model to estimate the percentage reduction in prevalence of spina bifida and anencephaly (NTDs) that could occur with FA fortification of CMF. Model inputs included estimates of the percentage reduction in United States NTD prevalence attributed to FA fortification of enriched cereal grain products (1995-1996 vs. 1998-2002), the increase in median FA intake after enriched cereal grain product fortification, and the estimated increase in median FA intake that could occur with CMF fortification at the same level as enriched cereal grain products (140 μg/100 g). We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty. We stratified analyses by racial/ethnic group and rounded results to the nearest 10. We estimated CMF fortification could prevent 30 Hispanic infants from having spina bifida (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 80) and 10 infants from having anencephaly (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 40) annually. The estimated impact among non-Hispanic whites and blacks was smaller. CMF fortification with FA could prevent from 0 to 120 infants, with the most likely value of approximately 40, from having spina bifida or anencephaly among Hispanics, the population most likely to benefit from the proposed intervention. While this estimated reduction is unlikely to be discernible using current birth defect surveillance methods, it still suggests an important benefit to the target population. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A comparison of the prevalence of prenatal alcohol exposure obtained via maternal self-reports versus meconium testing: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Maternal self-reports, used for the detection of prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE), may lack validity, necessitating the use of an objective biomarker. The detection of fatty acid ethyl esters (products of non-oxidative ethanol metabolism) in meconium has been established as a novel biomarker of PAE. The purpose of the current study was to compare the prevalence of PAE as reported via maternal self-reports with the results of meconium testing, and to quantify the disparity between these two methods. Methods A systematic literature search for studies reporting on the prevalence of PAE, using maternal self-reports in combination with meconium testing, was conducted using multiple electronic bibliographic databases. Pooled prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated based on eight studies, using the Mantel-Haenszel method, assuming a random effects model. A random effects meta-regression was performed to test for a difference. Results The pooled prevalence of PAE as measured by meconium testing was 4.26 (95% CI: 1.34-13.57) times the pooled prevalence of PAE as measured by maternal self-reports. Large variations across the studies in regard to the difference between estimates obtained from maternal self-reports and those obtained from meconium testing were observed. Conclusions If maternal self-reports are the sole information source upon which health care professionals rely, a number of infants who were prenatally exposed to alcohol are not being recognized as such. However, further research is needed in order to validate existing biomarkers, as well as discover new biomarkers, for the detection of PAE. PMID:24708684

Prevalence Estimates of Combat-Related PTSD: A Critical Review

PubMed Central

Richardson, Lisa K.; Frueh, B. Christopher; Acierno, Ronald

2010-01-01

Objective To provide a critical review of prevalence estimates of combat-related PTSD among military personnel and veterans, and of the relevant factors that may account for the variability of estimates within and across cohorts, including methodological and conceptual factors accounting for differences in prevalence rates across nations, conflicts/wars, and studies. Method We examined MEDLINE and PsycINFO databases for literature on combat-related PTSD. The following terms were used independently and in combinations in this search: PTSD, combat, veterans, military, epidemiology, prevalence. Results The point prevalence of combat-related PTSD in US military veterans since the Vietnam War ranges from about 2 – 17%. Studies of recent conflicts suggest that combat-related PTSD afflicts between 4 – 17% of US Iraq War veterans, but only 3 – 6% of returning UK Iraq War veterans. Thus, the prevalence range is narrower and tends to have a lower ceiling among combat veterans of non-US Western nations. Variability in prevalence is likely due to differences in sampling strategies; measurement strategies; inclusion and measurement of the DSM-IV clinically significant impairment criterion; timing and latency of assessment and potential for recall bias; and combat experiences. Prevalence rates are also likely affected by issues related to PTSD course, chronicity, and comorbidity; symptom overlap with other psychiatric disorders; and sociopolitical and cultural factors that may vary over time and by nation. Conclusions The disorder represents a significant and costly illness to veterans, their families, and society as a whole. However, further carefully conceptualized research is needed to advance our understanding of disorder prevalence, as well as associated information on course, phenomenology, protective factors, treatment, and economic costs. PMID:20073563

Making medical decisions in dependence of genetic background: estimation of the utility of DNA testing in clinical, pharmaco-epidemiological or genetic studies.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thuy Trang; Schäfer, Helmut; Timmesfeld, Nina

2013-05-01

An index measuring the utility of testing a DNA marker before deciding between two alternative treatments is proposed which can be estimated from pharmaco-epidemiological case-control or cohort studies. In the case-control design, external estimates of the prevalence of the disease and of the frequency of the genetic risk variant are required for estimating the utility index. Formulas for point and interval estimates are derived. Empirical coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals were estimated under different scenarios of disease prevalence, prevalence of drug use, and population frequency of the genetic variant. To illustrate our method, we re-analyse pharmaco-epidemiological case-control data on oral contraceptive intake and venous thrombosis in carriers and non-carriers of the factor V Leiden mutation. We also re-analyse cross-sectional data from the Framingham study on a gene-diet interaction between an APOA2 polymorphism and high saturated fat intake on obesity. We conclude that the utility index may be helpful to evaluate and appraise the potential clinical and public health relevance of gene-environment interaction effects detected in genomic and candidate gene association studies and may be a valuable decision support for designing prospective studies on the clinical utility. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

State-level estimates of childhood obesity prevalence in the United States corrected for report bias.

PubMed

Long, M W; Ward, Z J; Resch, S C; Cradock, A L; Wang, Y C; Giles, C M; Gortmaker, S L

2016-10-01

State-specific obesity prevalence data are critical to public health efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. However, few states administer objectively measured body mass index (BMI) surveillance programs. This study reports state-specific childhood obesity prevalence by age and sex correcting for parent-reported child height and weight bias. As part of the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), we developed childhood obesity prevalence estimates for states for the period 2005-2010 using data from the 2010 US Census and American Community Survey (ACS), 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) (n=133 213), and 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) (n=9377; ages 2-17). Measured height and weight data from NHANES were used to correct parent-report bias in NSCH using a non-parametric statistical matching algorithm. Model estimates were validated against surveillance data from five states (AR, FL, MA, PA and TN) that conduct censuses of children across a range of grades. Parent-reported height and weight resulted in the largest overestimation of childhood obesity in males ages 2-5 years (NSCH: 42.36% vs NHANES: 11.44%). The CHOICES model estimates for this group (12.81%) and for all age and sex categories were not statistically different from NHANES. Our modeled obesity prevalence aligned closely with measured data from five validation states, with a 0.64 percentage point mean difference (range: 0.23-1.39) and a high correlation coefficient (r=0.96, P=0.009). Estimated state-specific childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 11.0 to 20.4%. Uncorrected estimates of childhood obesity prevalence from NSCH vary widely from measured national data, from a 278% overestimate among males aged 2-5 years to a 44% underestimate among females aged 14-17 years. This study demonstrates the validity of the CHOICES matching methods to correct the bias of parent-reported BMI data and highlights the need for public release of more recent data from the 2011 to 2012 NSCH.

Economic and Health Predictors of National Postpartum Depression Prevalence: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-Regression of 291 Studies from 56 Countries.

PubMed

Hahn-Holbrook, Jennifer; Cornwell-Hinrichs, Taylor; Anaya, Itzel

2017-01-01

Postpartum depression (PPD) poses a major global public health challenge. PPD is the most common complication associated with childbirth and exerts harmful effects on children. Although hundreds of PPD studies have been published, we lack accurate global or national PPD prevalence estimates and have no clear account of why PPD appears to vary so dramatically between nations. Accordingly, we conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the global and national prevalence of PPD and a meta-regression to identify economic, health, social, or policy factors associated with national PPD prevalence. We conducted a systematic review of all papers reporting PPD prevalence using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. PPD prevalence and methods were extracted from each study. Random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate global and national PPD prevalence. To test for country level predictors, we drew on data from UNICEF, WHO, and the World Bank. Random effects meta-regression was used to test national predictors of PPD prevalence. 291 studies of 296284 women from 56 countries were identified. The global pooled prevalence of PPD was 17.7% (95% confidence interval: 16.6-18.8%), with significant heterogeneity across nations ( Q  = 16,823, p  = 0.000, I 2  = 98%), ranging from 3% (2-5%) in Singapore to 38% (35-41%) in Chile. Nations with significantly higher rates of income inequality ( R 2  = 41%), maternal mortality ( R 2  = 19%), infant mortality ( R 2  = 16%), or women of childbearing age working ≥40 h a week ( R 2  = 31%) have higher rates of PPD. Together, these factors explain 73% of the national variation in PPD prevalence. The global prevalence of PPD is greater than previously thought and varies dramatically by nation. Disparities in wealth inequality and maternal-child-health factors explain much of the national variation in PPD prevalence.

Risk factor assessment to anticipate performance in the National Developmental Screening Test in children from a disadvantaged area.

PubMed

Montes, Alejandro; Pazos, Gustavo

2016-02-01

Identifying children at risk of failing the National Developmental Screening Test by combining prevalences of children suspected of having inapparent developmental disorders (IDDs) and associated risk factors (RFs) would allow to save resources. 1. To estimate the prevalence of children suspected of having IDDs. 2. To identify associated RFs. 3. To assess three methods developed based on observed RFs and propose a pre-screening procedure. The National Developmental Screening Test was administered to 60 randomly selected children aged between 2 and 4 years old from a socioeconomically disadvantaged area from Puerto Madryn. Twenty-four biological and socioenvironmental outcome measures were assessed in order to identify potential RFs using bivariate and multivariate analyses. The likelihood of failing the screening test was estimated as follows: 1. a multivariate logistic regression model was developed; 2. a relationship was established between the number of RFs present in each child and the percentage of children who failed the test; 3. these two methods were combined. The prevalence of children suspected of having IDDs was 55.0% (95% confidence interval: 42.4%-67.6%). Six RFs were initially identified using the bivariate approach. Three of them (maternal education, number of health checkups and Z scores for height-for-age, and maternal age) were included in the logistic regression model, which has a greater explanatory power. The third method included in the assessment showed greater sensitivity and specificity (85% and 79%, respectively). The estimated prevalence of children suspected of having IDDs was four times higher than the national standards. Seven RFs were identified. Combining the analysis of risk factor accumulation and a multivariate model provides a firm basis for developing a sensitive, specific and practical pre-screening procedure for socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Cataract prevalence varies substantially with assessment systems: comparison of clinical and photographic grading in a population-based study.

PubMed

Tan, Anna C S; Wang, Jie Jin; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Wong, Wanling; Mitchell, Paul; Li, Jialiang; Tan, Ava Grace; Wong, Tien Y

2011-08-01

Cataract is the major cause of blindness worldwide yet there is no consensus on its assessment and definition. This study compares age-related cataract prevalence derived from two commonly used methods: clinical assessment using the Lens Opacity Classification System (LOCS III) and photographic grading using the Wisconsin Cataract Grading System (Wisconsin System). The Singapore Malay Eye Study is a population-based study of 3,280 Singapore Malays aged 40-80 years. Presence of nuclear, cortical and posterior sub-capsular cataract was assessed clinically during slit-lamp examination using LOCS III, and via slit-lamp and retro-illumination photographic grading using the Wisconsin System. Analyses were conducted to determine agreement in cataract prevalence estimates between the two grading Systems and approaches. Poor agreement was found between severity levels of the two grading scales for all three cataract types. Using currently accepted cut-offs to define nuclear (≥ 4 on both LOCS III and Wisconsin System), cortical (≥ 2 in LOCS III, ≥ 25% in Wisconsin) and PSC (≥ 2 in LOCS III, ≥ 5 % in Wisconsin) cataract, the LOCS III overestimated the prevalence of significant cataract as compared to the Wisconsin System, with nuclear cataract prevalence, 27.5% (LOCS III) versus 17.0% (Wisconsin System), cortical cataract prevalence, 27.9% versus 7.0% and posterior sub-capsular cataract prevalence, 7.8% versus 5.1%. The prevalence of cataract in a population varies substantially by measurement methods, with systematically different estimates found using the two most frequent cataract grading systems. This study re-emphasizes the need for global standards to assess and define cataract for epidemiologic and clinical studies.

Prevalence of cystic echinococcosis in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Khalkhali, H R; Foroutan, M; Khademvatan, S; Majidiani, H; Aryamand, S; Khezri, P; Aminpour, A

2018-05-01

As a significant zoonosis, cystic echinococcosis (CE) is endemic in some parts of the world, such as the Middle East. There are studies on the prevalence of this infection in animal and human reservoirs in Iran; hence, we conducted this meta-analysis to elucidate the prevalence of CE in Iran. English (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct and Google Scholar) and Persian (Magiran, Iran Medex, Iran Doc and SID) databases were explored. In the case of definitive, animal and human intermediate hosts, 37, 90 and 33 studies, respectively, have been included in the current review from January 1990 to December 2015. According to outcomes of the heterogeneity test, either Der Simonian and Laird's random-effects method or Mantel-Haenszel's fixed-effects method were employed to pool the estimations. The pooled prevalence of Echinococcus granulosus infection in definitive hosts was calculated as 23.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 17.6-30.1%). The weighted prevalence of animal and human hydatidosis was calculated as 15.6% (95% CI = 14.2-17.1%) and 4.2% (95% CI = 3.0-5.5%), respectively. Meanwhile, most cases of human hydatidosis were in southern Iran, with a prevalence of 5.8% (3.2-9.2%). In terms of human hydatidosis, more infections were found in rural regions, and mostly in female individuals. Egger's regression test revealed publication bias, with a remarkable impact on total prevalence of the infection in animal intermediate hosts (P < 0.001), while it was not significant in human hosts (P = 0.4) and definitive hosts (P = 0.3). According to the weighted estimated prevalence of cystic echinococcosis and its financial burden, implementing appropriate control programmes should be compulsory to decrease the burden of the disease in Iran.

[Evaluation of estimation of prevalence ratio using bayesian log-binomial regression model].

PubMed

Gao, W L; Lin, H; Liu, X N; Ren, X W; Li, J S; Shen, X P; Zhu, S L

2017-03-10

To evaluate the estimation of prevalence ratio ( PR ) by using bayesian log-binomial regression model and its application, we estimated the PR of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea in their infants by using bayesian log-binomial regression model in Openbugs software. The results showed that caregivers' recognition of infant' s risk signs of diarrhea was associated significantly with a 13% increase of medical care-seeking. Meanwhile, we compared the differences in PR 's point estimation and its interval estimation of medical care-seeking prevalence to caregivers' recognition of risk signs of diarrhea and convergence of three models (model 1: not adjusting for the covariates; model 2: adjusting for duration of caregivers' education, model 3: adjusting for distance between village and township and child month-age based on model 2) between bayesian log-binomial regression model and conventional log-binomial regression model. The results showed that all three bayesian log-binomial regression models were convergence and the estimated PRs were 1.130(95 %CI : 1.005-1.265), 1.128(95 %CI : 1.001-1.264) and 1.132(95 %CI : 1.004-1.267), respectively. Conventional log-binomial regression model 1 and model 2 were convergence and their PRs were 1.130(95 % CI : 1.055-1.206) and 1.126(95 % CI : 1.051-1.203), respectively, but the model 3 was misconvergence, so COPY method was used to estimate PR , which was 1.125 (95 %CI : 1.051-1.200). In addition, the point estimation and interval estimation of PRs from three bayesian log-binomial regression models differed slightly from those of PRs from conventional log-binomial regression model, but they had a good consistency in estimating PR . Therefore, bayesian log-binomial regression model can effectively estimate PR with less misconvergence and have more advantages in application compared with conventional log-binomial regression model.

The Prevalence of Tuberculosis in Zambia: Results from the First National TB Prevalence Survey, 2013-2014.

PubMed

Kapata, Nathan; Chanda-Kapata, Pascalina; Ngosa, William; Metitiri, Mine; Klinkenberg, Eveline; Kalisvaart, Nico; Sunkutu, Veronica; Shibemba, Aaron; Chabala, Chishala; Chongwe, Gershom; Tembo, Mathias; Mulenga, Lutinala; Mbulo, Grace; Katemangwe, Patrick; Sakala, Sandra; Chizema-Kawesha, Elizabeth; Masiye, Felix; Sinyangwe, George; Onozaki, Ikushi; Mwaba, Peter; Chikamata, Davy; Zumla, Alimuddin; Grobusch, Martin P

2016-01-01

Tuberculosis in Zambia is a major public health problem, however the country does not have reliable baseline data on the TB prevalence for impact measurement; therefore it was among the priority countries identified by the World Health Organization to conduct a national TB prevalence survey. To estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis among the adult Zambian population aged 15 years and above, in 2013-2014. A cross-sectional population-based survey was conducted in 66 clusters across all the 10 provinces of Zambia. Eligible participants aged 15 years and above were screened for TB symptoms, had a chest x-ray (CXR) performed and were offered an HIV test. Participants with TB symptoms and/or CXR abnormality underwent an in-depth interview and submitted one spot- and one morning sputum sample for smear microscopy and liquid culture. Digital data collection methods were used throughout the process. Of the 98,458 individuals who were enumerated, 54,830 (55.7%) were eligible to participate, and 46,099 (84.1%) participated. Of those who participated, 45,633/46,099 (99%) were screened by both symptom assessment and chest x-ray, while 466/46,099 (1.01%) were screened by interview only. 6,708 (14.6%) were eligible to submit sputum and 6,154/6,708 (91.7%) of them submitted at least one specimen for examination. MTB cases identified were 265/6,123 (4.3%). The estimated national adult prevalence of smear, culture and bacteriologically confirmed TB was 319/100,000 (232-406/100,000); 568/100,000 (440-697/100,000); and 638/100,000 (502-774/100,000) population, respectively. The risk of having TB was five times higher in the HIV positive than HIV negative individuals. The TB prevalence for all forms was estimated to be 455 /100,000 population for all age groups. The prevalence of tuberculosis in Zambia was higher than previously estimated. Innovative approaches are required to accelerate the control of TB.

Prevalence and Predictors of Drooling in 7- to 14-Year-Old Children with Cerebral Palsy: A Population Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Susan M.; McCutcheon, Jennifer; Reddihough, Dinah S.; Johnson, Hilary

2012-01-01

Aim: To establish a prevalence estimate for drooling and explore factors associated with drooling in a population sample of children with cerebral palsy (CP) aged 7 to 14 years living in Victoria, Australia. Method: A self-report questionnaire was used to collect data on drooling from parents of children born between 1996 and 2001, and registered…

A cross sectional study evaluating the prevalence of Coxiella burnetii, potential risk factors for infection, and agreement between diagnostic methods in goats in Indiana.

PubMed

Bauer, Amy E; Hubbard, Kirk R A; Johnson, April J; Messick, Joanne B; Weng, Hsin-Yi; Pogranichniy, Roman M

2016-04-01

Coxiella burnetii is the etiologic agent of the zoonotic disease Q fever and is considered to be endemic in domestic ruminants. Small ruminants in particular are important reservoirs for human infection. Serologic and molecular methods are both available for diagnosis of infection with C. burnetii, but there has been little research evaluating the prevalence of this organism in small ruminants outside of the context of clinical disease outbreaks. The objectives of this study were to estimate seroprevalence of C. burnetii and the prevalence of shedding of C. burnetii DNA in milk by goats in Indiana, USA, to evaluate potential risk factors for association with C. burnetii exposure and shedding, and to assess the level of agreement between the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests used to estimate prevalence. A total of 649 does over 1 year of age and not pregnant at the time of sampling were included in the study. Serum samples were collected from 608 does representing 89 farms. Milk samples were collected from 387 does representing 85 farms. Both milk and serum samples were collected from 356 does representing 80 farms. The estimated individual seroprevalence and shedding prevalence in milk adjusted for clustering were 3.1% (n=23/608, 95% CI: 1.2-7.0%) and 2.5% (n=9/387, 9.5% CI: 1.0-5.6%) respectively. Estimated adjusted herd level C. burnetii seroprevalence and herd level shedding prevalence were 11.5% (n=10/89, 95% CI: 6.4-20.1%) and 7.0% (n=6/85, 95% CI: 3.3-14.6%) respectively. Based on a generalized estimating equation model (GEE), meat breeds of goat had 7.0 times increased odds of shedding C. burnetii DNA in milk samples as compared to dairy breeds. Agreement between tests as determined by Cohen's kappa was poor at both the individual (kappa=0.04, 95% CI: -0.1 to 0.2) and herd (kappa=0.2, 95% CI: -0.1 to 0.5) levels. This indicates that serologic screening alone is unlikely to prevent the introduction of does shedding C. burnetii into herds. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hepatitis C bio-behavioural surveys in people who inject drugs-a systematic review of sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions of respondent driven sampling.

PubMed

Buchanan, Ryan; Khakoo, Salim I; Coad, Jonathan; Grellier, Leonie; Parkes, Julie

2017-07-11

New, more effective and better-tolerated therapies for hepatitis C (HCV) have made the elimination of HCV a feasible objective. However, for this to be achieved, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of HCV epidemiology in people who inject drugs (PWID). Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) can provide prevalence estimates in hidden populations such as PWID. The aims of this systematic review are to identify published studies that use RDS in PWID to measure the prevalence of HCV, and compare each study against the STROBE-RDS checklist to assess their sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying RDS. Searches were undertaken in accordance with PRISMA systematic review guidelines. Included studies were English language publications in peer-reviewed journals, which reported the use of RDS to recruit PWID to an HCV bio-behavioural survey. Data was extracted under three headings: (1) survey overview, (2) survey outcomes, and (3) reporting against selected STROBE-RDS criteria. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. They varied in scale (range 1-15 survey sites) and the sample sizes achieved (range 81-1000 per survey site) but were consistent in describing the use of standard RDS methods including: seeds, coupons and recruitment incentives. Twenty-seven studies (87%) either calculated or reported the intention to calculate population prevalence estimates for HCV and two used RDS data to calculate the total population size of PWID. Detailed operational and analytical procedures and reporting against selected criteria from the STROBE-RDS checklist varied between studies. There were widespread indications that sampling did not meet the assumptions underlying RDS, which led to two studies being unable to report an estimated HCV population prevalence in at least one survey location. RDS can be used to estimate a population prevalence of HCV in PWID and estimate the PWID population size. Accordingly, as a single instrument, it is a useful tool for guiding HCV elimination. However, future studies should report the operational conduct of each survey in accordance with the STROBE-RDS checklist to indicate sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying the method. PROSPERO CRD42015019245.

Estimation of prevalence of sarcopenia by using a new bioelectrical impedance analysis in Chinese community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Wang, Hui; Hai, Shan; Cao, Li; Zhou, Jianghua; Liu, Ping; Dong, Bi-Rong

2016-12-28

The aim of the present study was to validate the usefulness of the new octapolar multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) for assessment of appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM) by comparing it with that of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and to investigate the prevalence of sarcopenia in Chinese community-dwelling elderly according to Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS) definition. A cross-sectional study was conducted in communities of Chengdu, China. A total of 944 community-dwelling elderly adults aged ≥60 years were included. ASM was measured by using DXA as a criterion method to validate a standing eight-electrode multifrequency BIA (InBody 720), followed by a further estimation of the prevalence of sarcopenia according the AWGS definition. In the Bland-Altman analysis, no significant difference was found between DXA and BIA based on the ASM measurements. The prevalence of AWGS-defined sarcopenia was 12.5% in the elderly women and 8.2% in the elderly men. BIA is suitable for body composition monitoring (ASM) in elderly Chinese as a fast, noninvasive, and convenient method; therefore, it may be a better choice in large epidemiological studies in the Chinese population. The prevalence of AWGS-defined sarcopenia was approximately 10.4% and increased with age in the Chinese community-dwelling elderly in this study.

PREVALENCE AND CORRELATES OF SUICIDAL BEHAVIOR AMONG NEW SOLDIERS IN THE U.S. ARMY: RESULTS FROM THE ARMY STUDY TO ASSESS RISK AND RESILIENCE IN SERVICEMEMBERS (ARMY STARRS)

PubMed Central

Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.; Stein, Murray B.; Jain, Sonia; Raman, Rema; Sun, Xiaoying; Chiu, Wai Tat; Colpe, Lisa J.; Fullerton, Carol S.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Hwang, Irving; Naifeh, James A.; Nock, Matthew K.; Rosellini, Anthony J.; Sampson, Nancy A.; Schoenbaum, Michael; Zaslavsky, Alan M.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2016-01-01

Background The prevalence of suicide among U.S. Army soldiers has risen dramatically in recent years. Prior studies suggest that most soldiers with suicidal behaviors (i.e., ideation, plans, and attempts) had first onsets prior to enlistment. However, those data are based on retrospective self-reports of soldiers later in their Army careers. Unbiased examination of this issue requires investigation of suicidality among new soldiers. Method The New Soldier Study (NSS) of the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS) used fully structured self-administered measures to estimate preenlistment histories of suicide ideation, plans, and attempts among new soldiers reporting for Basic Combat Training in 2011–2012. Survival models examined sociodemographic correlates of each suicidal outcome. Results Lifetime prevalence estimates of preenlistment suicide ideation, plans, and attempts were 14.1, 2.3, and 1.9%, respectively. Most reported onsets of suicide plans and attempts (73.3–81.5%) occurred within the first year after onset of ideation. Odds of these lifetime suicidal behaviors among new soldiers were positively, but weakly associated with being female, unmarried, religion other than Protestant or Catholic, and a race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, or Hispanic. Conclusions Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicidal behaviors among new soldiers are consistent with retrospective reports of preenlistment prevalence obtained from soldiers later in their Army careers. Given that prior suicidal behaviors are among the strongest predictors of later suicides, consideration should be given to developing methods of obtaining valid reports of preenlistment suicidality from new soldiers to facilitate targeting of preventive interventions. PMID:25338964

Estimates of cancer burden in Veneto.

PubMed

Tognazzo, Sandro; De Angelis, Roberta; Ciampichini, Roberta; Gatta, Gemma

2013-01-01

In Veneto a regional cancer registry has been operating since 1987 which provides incidence and survival data for the region. It currently covers 48% of the regional population. The aim of this paper is to provide estimates of the incidence, mortality and prevalence of the major cancers for the whole Veneto region in the period 1970-2015. The estimates were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method, a statistical back-calculation approach to derive incidence and prevalence figures starting from mortality and relative survival data. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. In 2012 the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum, prostate and breast with 4,677, 3,760 and 3,729 new diagnosed cases, respectively. The incidence rates were estimated to increase constantly for female lung cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer and melanoma, while they were decreasing for cervical cancer and stomach cancer. For male lung cancer and female breast cancer the rates increased, reaching a peak, and then decreased. In the last years of the period of analysis, mortality declined for all cancers: the highest number of deaths (2,390 in both sexes) was estimated for lung cancer in 2012. Prevalence was increasing for all the considered cancer sites with the exception of lung cancer in men, for which the prevalence was estimated to increase until 2007 and then stabilize. By contrast, the cervical cancer decreased during the whole period. In 2012 breast cancer had the highest prevalence, with about 52,000 cases. This paper provides a description of the burden of the major cancers in Veneto until 2015. The estimates highlight the continuing reduction of cancer mortality. This decline can be related to the improvement of clinical treatments and to multidisciplinary treatment approaches. In order for this positive trend to continue, implementation and reinforcement of the screening programs is needed, especially for breast and colorectal cancer.

Taenia solium porcine cysticercosis in Madagascar: Comparison of immuno-diagnostic techniques and estimation of the prevalence in pork carcasses traded in Antananarivo city.

PubMed

Porphyre, V; Betson, M; Rabezanahary, H; Mboussou, Y; Zafindraibe, N J; Rasamoelina-Andriamanivo, H; Costard, S; Pfeiffer, D U; Michault, A

2016-03-30

Taenia solium cysticercosis was reported in official veterinary and medical statistics to be highly prevalent in pigs and humans in Madagascar, but few estimates are available for pigs. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of porcine cysticercosis among pigs slaughtered in Antananarivo abattoirs. Firstly, the diagnostic performance of two antigen-ELISA techniques (B158B60 Ag-ELISA and HP10 Ag-ELISA) and an immunoblotting method were compared with meat inspection procedures on a sample of pigs suspected to be infected with (group 1; n=250) or free of (group 2; n=250) T. solium based on direct veterinary inspection in Madagascar. Sensitivity and specificity of the antigen ELISAs were then estimated using a Bayesian approach for detection of porcine cysticercosis in the absence of a gold standard. Then, a third set of pig sera (group 3, n=250) was randomly collected in Antananarivo slaughterhouses and tested to estimate the overall prevalence of T. solium contamination in pork meat traded in Antananarivo. The antigen ELISAs showed a high sensitivity (>84%), but the B158B60 Ag-ELISA appeared to be more specific than the HP10 Ag-ELISA (model 1: 95% vs 74%; model 2: 87% vs 71%). The overall prevalence of porcine cysticercosis in Antananarivo slaughterhouses was estimated at 2.3% (95% credibility interval [95%CrI]: 0.09-9.1%) to 2.6% (95%CrI: 0.1-10.3%) depending on the model and priors used. Since the sample used in this study is not representative of the national pig population, village-based surveys and longitudinal monitoring at slaughter are needed to better estimate the overall prevalence, geographical patterns and main risk factors for T. solium contamination, in order to improve control policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discrepancies between UN models and DHS survey estimates of maternal orphan prevalence: insights from analyses of survey data from Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Robertson, L; Gregson, S; Madanhire, C; Walker, N; Mushati, P; Garnett, G; Nyamukapa, C

2008-01-01

Objectives: Model-based estimates of maternal (but not paternal) orphanhood are higher than those based on data from demographic and health surveys (DHS). We investigate the consistency of reporting of parental survival status in data from Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods: We compared estimates of paternal and maternal orphan prevalence in three rounds of a prospective household census in Manicaland (1998–2005) with estimates from DHS surveys and UNAIDS model projections. We investigated the consistency of reporting of parental survival status across the three rounds and compared estimates of adult mortality from the orphan data with direct estimates from concurrent follow-up of a general population cohort. Qualitative data were collected on possible reasons for misreporting. Results: Paternal and maternal orphan prevalence is increasing in Zimbabwe. Mothers reported as deceased in round 1 of the Manicaland survey were more likely than fathers to be reported as alive in rounds 2 or 3 (33.3% vs 13.4%). This pattern was most apparent among younger children. The qualitative findings suggest that foster parents sometimes claim adopted children as their natural children. Conclusions: These results are consistent with misreporting of foster parents as natural parents. This appears to be particularly common among foster mothers and could partly explain the discrepancy between mathematical model and DHS estimates of maternal orphanhood. PMID:18647868

Improved Correction of Misclassification Bias With Bootstrap Imputation.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl

2018-07-01

Diagnostic codes used in administrative database research can create bias due to misclassification. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) can correct for this bias, requires only code sensitivity and specificity, but may return invalid results. Bootstrap imputation (BI) can also address misclassification bias but traditionally requires multivariate models to accurately estimate disease probability. This study compared misclassification bias correction using QBA and BI. Serum creatinine measures were used to determine severe renal failure status in 100,000 hospitalized patients. Prevalence of severe renal failure in 86 patient strata and its association with 43 covariates was determined and compared with results in which renal failure status was determined using diagnostic codes (sensitivity 71.3%, specificity 96.2%). Differences in results (misclassification bias) were then corrected with QBA or BI (using progressively more complex methods to estimate disease probability). In total, 7.4% of patients had severe renal failure. Imputing disease status with diagnostic codes exaggerated prevalence estimates [median relative change (range), 16.6% (0.8%-74.5%)] and its association with covariates [median (range) exponentiated absolute parameter estimate difference, 1.16 (1.01-2.04)]. QBA produced invalid results 9.3% of the time and increased bias in estimates of both disease prevalence and covariate associations. BI decreased misclassification bias with increasingly accurate disease probability estimates. QBA can produce invalid results and increase misclassification bias. BI avoids invalid results and can importantly decrease misclassification bias when accurate disease probability estimates are used.

Prevalence of fetal alcohol spectrum disorders in child care settings: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lange, Shannon; Shield, Kevin; Rehm, Jürgen; Popova, Svetlana

2013-10-01

Children often enter a child-care system (eg, orphanage, foster care, child welfare system) because of unfavorable circumstances (eg, maternal alcohol and/or drug problems, child abuse/neglect). Such circumstances increase the odds of prenatal alcohol exposure, and thus this population can be regarded as high risk for fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). The primary objective was to estimate a pooled prevalence for fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) and FASD in various child-care systems based on data from existing studies that used an active case ascertainment method. A systematic literature review, using multiple electronic bibliographic databases, and meta-analysis of internationally published and unpublished studies that reported the prevalence of FAS and/or FASD in all types of child-care systems were conducted. The pooled prevalence estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by using the Mantel-Haenszel method, assuming a random effects model. Sensitivity analyses were performed for studies that used either passive surveillance or mixed methods. On the basis of studies that used active case ascertainment, the overall pooled prevalence of FAS and FASD among children and youth in the care of a child-care system was calculated to be 6.0% (60 per 1000; 95% CI: 38 to 85 per 1000) and 16.9% (169 per 1000; 95% CI: 109 to 238 per 1000), respectively. The results confirm that children and youth housed in or under the guardianship of the wide range of child-care systems constitute a population that is high-risk for FASD. It is imperative that screening be implemented in these at-risk populations.

Economic Benefits of Achieving Realistic Smoking Cessation Targets in Australia

PubMed Central

Cadilhac, Dominique; Sheppard, Lauren; Cumming, Toby; Pearce, Dora; Carter, Rob

2011-01-01

Objectives. We estimated the economic impact of reductions in the prevalence of tobacco smoking on health, production, and leisure in the 2008 Australian population. Methods. We selected a prevalence target of 15%. Cohort lifetime health benefits were modeled as fewer incident cases of tobacco-related diseases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years. We estimated production gains by comparing surveyed participation and absenteeism rates of adult smokers and ex-smokers valued according to the human capital and friction cost approaches. We estimated household production and leisure gains from time use surveys and valued these gains with the appropriate proxy. Results. In the 2008 Australian population, an absolute reduction in smoking prevalence of 8% would result in 158 000 fewer incident cases of disease, 5000 fewer deaths, 2.2 million fewer lost working days, and 3000 fewer early retirements and would reduce health sector costs by AUD 491 million. The gain in workforce production was AUD 415 million (friction cost) or AUD 863 million (human capital), along with gains of 373 000 days of household production and 23 000 days of leisure time. Conclusions. Lowering smoking prevalence rates can lead to substantial economic savings and health benefits. PMID:21164092

Impact of Tobacco Control Interventions on Smoking Initiation, Cessation, and Prevalence: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Wilson, Lisa M.; Avila Tang, Erika; Chander, Geetanjali; Hutton, Heidi E.; Odelola, Olaide A.; Elf, Jessica L.; Heckman-Stoddard, Brandy M.; Bass, Eric B.; Little, Emily A.; Haberl, Elisabeth B.; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

2012-01-01

Background. Policymakers need estimates of the impact of tobacco control (TC) policies to set priorities and targets for reducing tobacco use. We systematically reviewed the independent effects of TC policies on smoking behavior. Methods. We searched MEDLINE (through January 2012) and EMBASE and other databases through February 2009, looking for studies published after 1989 in any language that assessed the effects of each TC intervention on smoking prevalence, initiation, cessation, or price participation elasticity. Paired reviewers extracted data from studies that isolated the impact of a single TC intervention. Findings. We included 84 studies. The strength of evidence quantifying the independent effect on smoking prevalence was high for increasing tobacco prices and moderate for smoking bans in public places and antitobacco mass media campaigns. Limited direct evidence was available to quantify the effects of health warning labels and bans on advertising and sponsorship. Studies were too heterogeneous to pool effect estimates. Interpretations. We found evidence of an independent effect for several TC policies on smoking prevalence. However, we could not derive precise estimates of the effects across different settings because of variability in the characteristics of the intervention, level of policy enforcement, and underlying tobacco control environment. PMID:22719777

Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India

PubMed Central

Pandey, Arvind; Dhingra, Neeraj; Kumar, Pradeep; Sahu, Damodar; Reddy, D.C.S.; Narayan, Padum; Raj, Yujwal; Sangal, Bhavna; Chandra, Nalini; Nair, Saritha; Singh, Jitenkumar; Chavan, Laxmikant; Srivastava, Deepika Joshi; Jha, Ugra Mohan; Verma, Vinita; Kant, Shashi; Bhattacharya, Madhulekha; Swain, Pushpanjali; Haldar, Partha; Singh, Lucky; Bakkali, Taoufik; Stover, John; Ammassari, Savina

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. Methods: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. Results: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. Interpretation & conclusions: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic. PMID:29168464

Determining Chronic Disease Prevalence in Local Populations Using Emergency Department Surveillance

PubMed Central

Long, Judith A.; Wall, Stephen P.; Carr, Brendan G.; Satchell, Samantha N.; Braithwaite, R. Scott; Elbel, Brian

2015-01-01

Objectives. We sought to improve public health surveillance by using a geographic analysis of emergency department (ED) visits to determine local chronic disease prevalence. Methods. Using an all-payer administrative database, we determined the proportion of unique ED patients with diabetes, hypertension, or asthma. We compared these rates to those determined by the New York City Community Health Survey. For diabetes prevalence, we also analyzed the fidelity of longitudinal estimates using logistic regression and determined disease burden within census tracts using geocoded addresses. Results. We identified 4.4 million unique New York City adults visiting an ED between 2009 and 2012. When we compared our emergency sample to survey data, rates of neighborhood diabetes, hypertension, and asthma prevalence were similar (correlation coefficient = 0.86, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively). In addition, our method demonstrated less year-to-year scatter and identified significant variation of disease burden within neighborhoods among census tracts. Conclusions. Our method for determining chronic disease prevalence correlates with a validated health survey and may have higher reliability over time and greater granularity at a local level. Our findings can improve public health surveillance by identifying local variation of disease prevalence. PMID:26180983

Estimating diabetes prevalence by small area in England.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-03-01

Diabetes risk is linked to both deprivation and ethnicity, and so prevalence will vary considerably between areas. Prevalence differences may partly account for geographic variation in health performance indicators for diabetes, which are based on age standardized hospitalization or operation rates. A positive correlation between prevalence and health outcomes indicates that the latter are not measuring only performance. A regression analysis of prevalence rates according to age, sex and ethnicity from the Health Survey for England (HSE) is undertaken and used (together with census data) to estimate diabetes prevalence for 354 English local authorities and 8000 smaller areas (electoral wards). An adjustment for social factors is based on a prevalence gradient over area-deprivation quintiles. A Bayesian estimation approach is used allowing simple inclusion of evidence on prevalence from other or historical sources. The estimated prevalent population in England is 1.5 million (188 000 type 1 and 1.341 million type 2). At strategic health authority (StHA) level, prevalence varies from 2.4 (Thames Valley) to 4 per cent (North East London). The prevalence estimates are used to assess variations between local authorities in adverse hospitalization indicators for diabetics and to assess the relationship between diabetes-related mortality and prevalence. In particular, rates of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) and coma are positively correlated with prevalence, while diabetic amputation rates are not. The methodology developed is applicable to developing small-area-prevalence estimates for a range of chronic diseases, when health surveys assess prevalence by demographic categories. In the application to diabetes prevalence, there is evidence that performance indicators as currently calculated are not corrected for prevalence.

Adolescent suicidal behaviours in 32 low- and middle-income countries

PubMed Central

Gariépy, Geneviève; Sentenac, Mariane; Elgar, Frank J

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate prevalence of suicidal ideation and suicidal ideation with a plan in each surveyed country and to examine cross-national differences in associated risk factors. Methods We analysed data of students aged 13–17 years who participated in the 2003–2012 Global School-based Health Surveys in 32 countries, of which 29 are low- and middle-income. We used random effects meta-analysis to generate regional and overall pooled estimates. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate risk ratios for the associated risk factors. Population attributable fractions were estimated based on adjusted risk ratios and the prevalence of the determinants within each exposure level. Findings Across all countries, the pooled 12-month prevalence of suicide ideation were 16.2% (95% confidence interval, CI: 15.6 to 16.7) among females and 12.2% (95% CI: 11.7 to 12.7) among males and ideation with a plan were 8.3% (95% CI: 7.9 to 8.7) among females and 5.8% (95% CI: 5.5 to 6.1) among males. Suicide ideation in the WHO Region of the Americas was higher in females than males, with an estimated prevalence ratio of 1.70 (95% CI: 1.60 to 1.81), while this ratio was 1.04 (95% CI: 0.98 to 1.10) in the WHO African Region. Factors associated with suicidal ideation in most countries included experiences of bullying and physical violence, loneliness, limited parental support and alcohol and tobacco use. Conclusion The prevalence of adolescent suicidal behaviours varies across countries, yet a consistent set of risk factors of suicidal behaviours emerged across all regions and most countries. PMID:27147764

Health-care workers’ occupational exposures to body fluids in 21 countries in Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Adewuyi, Emmanuel O; Tor-Anyiin, Amom; Aziz, David; Ogbole, Esther; Ogbonna, Brian O; Adeloye, Davies

2017-01-01

Abstract Objective To estimate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure to body fluids among health-care workers in Africa. Methods Embase®, PubMed® and CINAHL databases were systematically searched for studies published between January 2000 and August 2017 that reported the prevalence of occupational exposure to blood or other body fluids among health-care workers in Africa. The continent-wide prevalence of exposure was estimated using random-effects meta-analysis. Findings Of the 904 articles identified, 65 studies from 21 African countries were included. The estimated pooled lifetime and 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure to body fluids were 65.7% (95% confidence interval, CI: 59.7–71.6) and 48.0% (95% CI: 40.7–55.3), respectively. Exposure was largely due to percutaneous injury, which had an estimated 12-month prevalence of 36.0% (95% CI: 31.2–40.8). The pooled 12-month prevalence of occupational exposure among medical doctors (excluding surgeons), nurses (including midwives and nursing assistants) and laboratory staff (including laboratory technicians) was 46.6% (95% CI: 33.5–59.7), 44.6% (95% CI: 34.1–55.0) and 34.3% (95% CI: 21.8–46.7), respectively. The risk of exposure was higher among health-care workers with no training on infection prevention and those who worked more than 40 hours per week. Conclusion The evidence available suggests that almost one half of health-care workers in Africa were occupationally exposed to body fluids annually. However, a lack of data from some countries was a major limitation. National governments and health-care institutions across Africa should prioritize efforts to minimize occupational exposure among health-care workers. PMID:29200524

Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales—a study protocol

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Mome; Gupta, Ramyani; Farr, Angela; Heaven, Martin; Stoddart, Andrew; Nwaru, Bright I; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Chamberlain, George; Bandyopadhyay, Amrita; Fischbacher, Colin; Dibben, Christopher; Shields, Michael; Phillips, Ceri; Strachan, David; Davies, Gwyneth; McKinstry, Brian; Sheikh, Aziz

2014-01-01

Introduction Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. Methods and analysis Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. Ethics and dissemination Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to peer-reviewed journals and construct an interactive map. PMID:25371419

Estimates of the number of female sex workers in different regions of the world

PubMed Central

Vandepitte, J; Lyerla, R; Dallabetta, G; Crabbé, F; Alary, M; Buvé, A

2006-01-01

Objectives To collect estimated numbers of female sex workers (FSW) and present proportions of FSW in the female population (FSW prevalence) in different regions of the world. Methods Subnational and national estimated numbers of FSW reported in published and unpublished literature, as well as from field investigators involved in research or interventions targeted at FSW, were collected. The proportion of FSW in the adult female population was calculated. Subnational estimates were extrapolated to national estimates if appropriate. Population surveys were scanned for proportions of adult women having sex in exchange for money or goods. Results In sub‐Saharan Africa, the FSW prevalence in the capitals ranged between 0.7% and 4.3% and in other urban areas between 0.4% and 4.3%. Population surveys from this same region yielded even higher proportions of women involved in transactional sex. The national FSW prevalence in Asia ranged between 0.2% and 2.6%; in the ex‐Russian Federation between 0.1% and 1.5%; in East Europe between 0.4% and 1.4%; in West Europe between 0.1% and 1.4%; and in Latin America between 0.2% and 7.4%. Estimates from rural areas were only available from one country. Conclusions Although it is well known and accepted that FSW are a highly vulnerable group in the scope of the HIV epidemic, most countries in the world do not know the size of this population group. The estimates of the prevalence of FSW presented in this paper show how important this hard‐to‐reach population group is in all parts of the world. PMID:16735288

The Rising Prevalence and Incidence of Gout in British Columbia, Canada: Population-Based Trends from 2000-2012

PubMed Central

Rai, Sharan K.; Aviña-Zubieta, J. Antonio; McCormick, Natalie; De Vera, Mary A.; Shojania, Kam; Sayre, Eric C.; Choi, Hyon K.

2016-01-01

Objectives Gout is increasingly recognized as the most common form of inflammatory arthritis worldwide; however, no Canadian data on the disease burden of gout are available. We estimated the prevalence, incidence, prescription patterns, and comorbidity burden of gout in an entire Canadian province (British Columbia [BC]) over the last decade. Methods We utilized PopulationData BC, a province-wide database, to estimate temporal trends in the prevalence and incidence of gout from 2000-2012, as well as according to age category. Annual estimates were age-sex-standardized using 2012 as the reference. We also examined annual trends in prescription patterns of common gout medications and assessed the comorbidity burden among gout patients in 2012. Results The 2012 prevalence of gout was 3.8% among the overall population, and the incidence rate was 2.9 per 1,000 person-years. Both gout prevalence and incidence increased substantially over the study period. This burden additionally increased according to age category, affecting over 8% of those ages 60-69 years in 2012. Approximately 22% of gout patients received a prescription for urate-lowering therapy (ULT), which remained stable over the study period, while colchicine and oral glucocorticoid use both increased modestly. By 2012, 72%, 52%, and 18% of prevalent gout patients had been diagnosed with hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and diabetes, respectively. Conclusions The burden of gout in BC, Canada, is substantial, and both the prevalence and incidence have increased over the past decade, while prescription of ULT remains low. These data support the need to improve gout prevention and care. PMID:28040245

The association between major depression prevalence and sex becomes weaker with age.

PubMed

Patten, Scott B; Williams, Jeanne V A; Lavorato, Dina H; Wang, Jian Li; Bulloch, Andrew G M; Sajobi, Tolulope

2016-02-01

Women have a higher prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDE) than men, and the annual prevalence of MDE declines with age. Age by sex interactions may occur (a weakening of the sex effect with age), but are easily overlooked since individual studies lack statistical power to detect interactions. The objective of this study was to evaluate age by sex interactions in MDE prevalence. In Canada, a series of 10 national surveys conducted between 1996 and 2013 assessed MDE prevalence in respondents over the age of 14. Treating age as a continuous variable, binomial and linear regression was used to model age by sex interactions in each survey. To increase power, the survey-specific interaction coefficients were then pooled using meta-analytic methods. The estimated interaction terms were homogeneous. In the binomial regression model I (2) was 31.2 % and was not statistically significant (Q statistic = 13.1, df = 9, p = 0.159). The pooled estimate (-0.004) was significant (z = 3.13, p = 0.002), indicating that the effect of sex became weaker with increasing age. This resulted in near disappearance of the sex difference in the 75+ age group. This finding was also supported by an examination of age- and sex-specific estimates pooled across the surveys. The association of MDE prevalence with sex becomes weaker with age. The interaction may reflect biological effect modification. Investigators should test for, and consider inclusion of age by sex interactions in epidemiological analyses of MDE prevalence.

A meta-regression analysis of 41 Australian problem gambling prevalence estimates and their relationship to total spending on electronic gaming machines.

PubMed

Markham, Francis; Young, Martin; Doran, Bruce; Sugden, Mark

2017-05-23

Many jurisdictions regularly conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of problem gambling in their adult populations. However, the comparison of such estimates is problematic due to methodological variations between studies. Total consumption theory suggests that an association between mean electronic gaming machine (EGM) and casino gambling losses and problem gambling prevalence estimates may exist. If this is the case, then changes in EGM losses may be used as a proxy indicator for changes in problem gambling prevalence. To test for this association this study examines the relationship between aggregated losses on electronic gaming machines (EGMs) and problem gambling prevalence estimates for Australian states and territories between 1994 and 2016. A Bayesian meta-regression analysis of 41 cross-sectional problem gambling prevalence estimates was undertaken using EGM gambling losses, year of survey and methodological variations as predictor variables. General population studies of adults in Australian states and territory published before 1 July 2016 were considered in scope. 41 studies were identified, with a total of 267,367 participants. Problem gambling prevalence, moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence, problem gambling screen, administration mode and frequency threshold were extracted from surveys. Administrative data on EGM and casino gambling loss data were extracted from government reports and expressed as the proportion of household disposable income lost. Money lost on EGMs is correlated with problem gambling prevalence. An increase of 1% of household disposable income lost on EGMs and in casinos was associated with problem gambling prevalence estimates that were 1.33 times higher [95% credible interval 1.04, 1.71]. There was no clear association between EGM losses and moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates. Moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates were not explained by the models (I 2  ≥ 0.97; R 2  ≤ 0.01). The present study adds to the weight of evidence that EGM losses are associated with the prevalence of problem gambling. No patterns were evident among moderate-risk problem gambling prevalence estimates, suggesting that this measure is either subject to pronounced measurement error or lacks construct validity. The high degree of residual heterogeneity raises questions about the validity of comparing problem gambling prevalence estimates, even after adjusting for methodological variations between studies.

Using 2 Assessment Methods May Better Describe Dietary Supplement Intakes in the United States123

PubMed Central

Nicastro, Holly L; Bailey, Regan L; Dodd, Kevin W

2015-01-01

Background: One-half of US adults report using a dietary supplement. NHANES has traditionally assessed dietary supplement use via a 30-d questionnaire but in 2007 added a supplement module to the 24-h dietary recall (24HR). Objective: We compared these 2 dietary assessment methods, examined potential biases in the methods, and determined the effect that instrument choice had on estimates of prevalence of multivitamin/multimineral dietary supplement (MVMM) use. Methods: We described prevalence of dietary supplement use by age, sex, and assessment instrument in 12,285 adults in the United States (>19 y of age) from NHANES 2007–2010. Results: When using data from the questionnaire alone, 29.3% ± 1.0% of men and 35.5% ± 1.0% of women were users of MVMMs, whereas data from the 24HR only produced prevalence estimates of 26.3% ± 1.1% for men and 33.2% ± 1.0% for women. When using data from both instruments combined, 32.3% ± 1.2% of men and 39.5% ± 1.1% of women were classified as MVMM users. Prevalence estimates were significantly higher by 2–9% in all age–sex groups when using information from both instruments combined than when using data from either instrument individually. A digit preference bias and flattened slope phenomenon were observed in responses to the dietary supplement questionnaire. A majority (67%) of MVMMs were captured on both instruments, whereas 19% additional MVMMs were captured on the questionnaire and 14% additional on the 24HR. Of those captured only on the 24HR, 26% had missing label information, whereas only 12% and 9% of those captured on the questionnaire or both, respectively, had missing information. Conclusions: Use of both the dietary supplement questionnaire and the 24HR can provide advantages to researchers over the use of a single instrument and potentially capture a larger fraction of dietary supplement users. PMID:26019244

A Comparison of DSM-IV PDD and DSM-5 ASD Prevalence in an Epidemiologic Sample

PubMed Central

Kim, Young Shin; Fombonne, Eric; Koh, Yun-Joo; Kim, Soo-Jeong; Cheon, Keun-Ah; Leventhal, Bennett

2014-01-01

Objective Changes in autism diagnostic criteria found in DSM5 may affect Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) prevalence, research findings, diagnostic processes and eligibility for clinical and other services. Utilizing our published, total-population Korean prevalence data, we compute DSM5 ASD and Social Communication Disorder (SCD) prevalence and compare them to DSMIV Pervasive Developmental Disorder (PDD) prevalence estimates. We also describe individuals previously diagnosed with DSMIV PDD when diagnoses change with DSM-5 criteria. Method The target population was all 7-12-year-old children in a South Korean community (N= 55,266), those in regular and special education schools and a disability registry. We utilized the Autism Spectrum Screening Questionnaire for systematic, multi-informant screening. Parents of screen-positive children were offered comprehensive assessments using standardized diagnostic procedures, including the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised and Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule. Best estimate clinical diagnoses were made using DSMIV PDD and DSM5 ASD and SCD criteria. Results DSM5 ASD estimated prevalence is 2.20% (CI: 1.77-3.64). Combined DSM-5 ASD and SCD prevalence is virtually same as DSM-IV PDD prevalence (2.64%). Most children with Autistic Disorder (99%), Asperger Disorder (92%), and PDD NOS (63%) met DSM-5 ASD criteria, whereas 1%, 8% and 32%, respectively, met SCD criteria. All remaining children (2% ) had other psychopathology, principally Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and anxiety disorder. Conclusion Our findings suggest that most individuals with a prior DSMIV PDD meet DSM5 diagnostic criteria for ASD and SCD. PDD, ASD or SCD, extant diagnostic criteria identify a large, clinically meaningful group of individuals and families who require evidence-based services. PMID:24745950

Prevalence of Borderline Personality Disorder in University Samples: Systematic Review, Meta-Analysis and Meta-Regression.

PubMed

Meaney, Rebecca; Hasking, Penelope; Reupert, Andrea

2016-01-01

To determine pooled prevalence of clinically significant traits or features of Borderline Personality Disorder among college students, and explore the influence of methodological factors on reported prevalence figures, and temporal trends. Electronic databases (1994-2014: AMED; Biological Abstracts; Embase; MEDLINE; PsycARTICLES; CINAHL Plus; Current Contents Connect; EBM Reviews; Google Scholar; Ovid Medline; Proquest central; PsychINFO; PubMed; Scopus; Taylor & Francis; Web of Science (1998-2014), and hand searches. Forty-three college-based studies reporting estimates of clinically significant BPD symptoms were identified (5.7% of original search). One author (RM) extracted clinically relevant BPD prevalence estimates, year of publication, demographic variables, and method from each publication or through correspondence with the authors. The prevalence of BPD in college samples ranged from 0.5% to 32.1%, with lifetime prevalence of 9.7% (95% CI, 7.7-12.0; p < .005). Methodological factors contributing considerable between-study heterogeneity in univariate meta-analyses were participant anonymity, incentive type, research focus and participant type. Study and sample characteristics related to between study heterogeneity were sample size, and self-identifying as Asian or "other" race. The prevalence of BPD varied over time: 7.8% (95% CI 4.2-13.9) between 1994 and 2000; 6.5% (95% CI 4.0-10.5) during 2001 to 2007; and 11.6% (95% CI 8.8-15.1) from 2008 to 2014, yet was not a source of heterogeneity (p = .09). BPD prevalence estimates are influenced by the methodological or study sample factors measured. There is a need for consistency in measurement across studies to increase reliability in establishing the scope and characteristics of those with BPD engaged in tertiary study.

Prevalence of invehicle smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in Uruguay.

PubMed

Llambi, Laura; Barros, Mary; Parodi, Carolina; Pippo, Antonella; Nunez, Virginia; Colomar, Mercedes; Ciganda, Alvaro; Cavalleri, Fiorella; Goyeneche, Juan J; Aleman, Alicia

2018-01-19

Protection from secondhand smoke (SHS) is one of the fundamental principles of the WHO Framework Convention for Tobacco Control. Objective data on SHS exposure in vehicles in South America is scarce. This study aimed to estimate prevalence of smoking inside vehicles. The point prevalence of smoking in vehicles was observed, and a method for estimating smoking prevalence was piloted. We observed 10 011 vehicles. In 219 (2.2%; 95% CI 1.91 to 2.49) of them, smoking was observed, and in 29.2% of these, another person was exposed to SHS. According to the 'expansion factor' we constructed, direct observation detected one of six to one to nine vehicles in which smoking occurred. The observed prevalence of smoking in vehicles (2.2%) could reflect a real prevalence between 12% and 19%. In 29.2% (95% CI 23.6 to 35.5) and 4.6% (95% CI 2.2 to 8.3) of vehicles in which smoking was observed, another adult or a child, respectively, was exposed to SHS. Smoking was estimated to occur in 12%-19% of vehicles, with involuntary exposure in one of three of vehicles observed. These data underscore a need for new public policies to eliminate SHS in vehicles to protect public health. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Meta-analysis: prevalence of HIV infection and syphilis among MSM in China.

PubMed

Gao, L; Zhang, L; Jin, Q

2009-09-01

The prevalence of HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases is rapidly rising among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. The aim is to systematically review the published studies and summarise the estimates of HIV prevalence among MSM in China. Published articles, both in English and in Chinese, on HIV prevalence among MSM in China until 15 September 2008 were systematically reviewed. Meta-analysis was used to quantitatively summarise the estimates, and the prevalence of syphilis presented in the included studies was also analysed. Twenty-six eligible studies, published during 2001-2008, were included in this review. Their results were frequently heterogeneous. The meta-analyses showed that MSM form a high-risk population for HIV infection in China with a summary prevalence of 2.5% (95% CI 0.9% to 3.3%). A much higher prevalence of syphilis (9.1%) may indicate a potential of more severe HIV epidemic in the future because of their common high-risk behaviours. MSM are a high-risk population for HIV infection in China. An effective strategy for prevention and control is required for this specific population. Differences between sampling methods, sample sizes and study locations may explain some of the inconsistencies found in the included studies.

A maximum pseudo-profile likelihood estimator for the Cox model under length-biased sampling

PubMed Central

Huang, Chiung-Yu; Qin, Jing; Follmann, Dean A.

2012-01-01

This paper considers semiparametric estimation of the Cox proportional hazards model for right-censored and length-biased data arising from prevalent sampling. To exploit the special structure of length-biased sampling, we propose a maximum pseudo-profile likelihood estimator, which can handle time-dependent covariates and is consistent under covariate-dependent censoring. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than its competitors. A data analysis illustrates the methods and theory. PMID:23843659

Estimation of diagnostic test accuracy without full verification: a review of latent class methods

PubMed Central

Collins, John; Huynh, Minh

2014-01-01

The performance of a diagnostic test is best evaluated against a reference test that is without error. For many diseases, this is not possible, and an imperfect reference test must be used. However, diagnostic accuracy estimates may be biased if inaccurately verified status is used as the truth. Statistical models have been developed to handle this situation by treating disease as a latent variable. In this paper, we conduct a systematized review of statistical methods using latent class models for estimating test accuracy and disease prevalence in the absence of complete verification. PMID:24910172

Future trends in global blindness

PubMed Central

Resnikoff, Serge; Keys, Tricia U

2012-01-01

The objective of this review is to discuss the available data on the prevalence and causes of global blindness, and some of the associated trends and limitations seen. A literature search was conducted using the terms “global AND blindness” and “global AND vision AND impairment”, resulting in seven appropriate articles for this review. Since 1990 the estimate of global prevalence of blindness has gradually decreased when considering the best corrected visual acuity definition: 0.71% in 1990, 0.59% in 2002, and 0.55% in 2010, corresponding to a 0.73% reduction per year over the 2002–2010 period. Significant limitations were found in the comparability between the global estimates in prevalence or causes of blindness or visual impairment. These limitations arise from various factors such as uncertainties about the true cause of the impairment, the use of different definitions and methods, and the absence of data from a number of geographical areas, leading to various extrapolation methods, which in turn seriously limit comparability. Seminal to this discussion on limitations in the comparability of studies and data, is that blindness has historically been defined using best corrected visual acuity. PMID:22944747

Estimating the health consequences of replacing cigarettes with nicotine inhalers

PubMed Central

Sumner, W

2003-01-01

Background: A fast acting, clean nicotine delivery system might substantially displace cigarettes. Public health consequences would depend on the subsequent prevalence of nicotine use, hazards of delivery systems, and intrinsic hazards of nicotine. Methods: A spreadsheet program, DEMANDS, estimates differences in expected mortality, adjusted for nicotine delivery system features and prevalence of nicotine use, by extending the data and methods of the SAMMEC 3 software from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The user estimates disease risks attributable to nicotine, other smoke components, and risk factors that coexist with smoking. The public health consequences of a widely used clean nicotine inhaler replacing cigarettes were compared to historical observations and public health goals, using four different risk attribution scenarios and nicotine use prevalence from 0–100%. Main outcome measures: Changes in years of potential life before age 85 (YPL85). Results: If nicotine accounts for less than a third of smokers' excess risk of SAMMEC diseases, as it most likely does, then even with very widespread use of clean nicotine DEMANDS predicts public health gains, relative to current tobacco use. Public health benefits accruing from a widely used clean nicotine inhaler probably equal or exceed the benefits of achieving Healthy People 2010 goals. Conclusions: Clean nicotine inhalers might improve public health as much as any feasible tobacco control effort. Although the relevant risk estimates are somewhat uncertain, partial nicotine deregulation deserves consideration as part of a broad tobacco control policy. PMID:12773720

A systematic review of the reporting of tinnitus prevalence and severity.

PubMed

McCormack, Abby; Edmondson-Jones, Mark; Somerset, Sarah; Hall, Deborah

2016-07-01

There is no standard diagnostic criterion for tinnitus, although some clinical assessment instruments do exist for identifying patient complaints. Within epidemiological studies the presence of tinnitus is determined primarily by self-report, typically in response to a single question. Using these methods prevalence figures vary widely. Given the variety of published estimates worldwide, we assessed and collated published prevalence estimates of tinnitus and tinnitus severity, creating a narrative synthesis of the data. The variability between prevalence estimates was investigated in order to determine any barriers to data synthesis and to identify reasons for heterogeneity. and analysis: A systematic review included all adult population studies reporting the prevalence of tinnitus from January 1980 to July 2015. We searched five databases (Embase, Medline, PsychInfo, CINAHL and Web Of Science), using a combination of medical subject headings (MeSH) and relevant text words. Observational studies including cross-sectional studies were included, but studies estimating the incidence of tinnitus (e.g. cohort studies) were outside the scope of this systematic review. The databases identified 875 papers and a further 16 were identified through manual searching. After duplicates were removed, 515 remained. On the basis of the title, abstract and full-text screening, 400, 48 and 27 papers respectively were removed. This left 40 papers, reporting 39 different studies, for data extraction. Sixteen countries were represented, with the majority of the studies from the European region (38.5%). Publications since 2010 represented half of all included studies (48.7%). Overall prevalence figures for each study ranged from 5.1% to 42.7%. For the 12 studies that used the same definition of tinnitus, prevalence ranged from 11.9% to 30.3%. Twenty-six studies (66.7%) reported tinnitus prevalence by different age groups, and generally showed an increase in prevalence as age increases. Half the studies reported tinnitus prevalence by gender. The pattern generally showed higher tinnitus prevalence among males than females. There were 8 different types of definitions of tinnitus, the most common being "tinnitus lasting for more than five minutes at a time" (34.3%). Only seven studies gave any justification for the question that was used, or acknowledged the lack of standard questions for tinnitus. There is widespread inconsistency in defining and reporting tinnitus, leading to variability in prevalence estimates among studies. Nearly half of the included studies had a high risk of bias and this limits the generalisability of prevalence estimates. In addition, the available prevalence data is heterogeneous thereby preventing the ability to pool the data and perform meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity include different diagnostic criteria, different age groups, different study focus and differences in reporting and analysis of the results. Heterogeneity thus made comparison across studies impracticable. Deriving global estimates of the prevalence of tinnitus involves combining results from studies which are consistent in their definition and measurement of tinnitus, survey methodology and in the reporting and analysis of the results. Ultimately comparison among studies is unachievable without such consistency. The strength of this systematic review is in providing a record of all the available, recent epidemiological data in each global region and in making recommendations for promoting standardisation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and factors associated with HSV-2 and hepatitis B infections among truck drivers crossing the southern Brazilian border

PubMed Central

Pinho, Adriana A; Chinaglia, Magda; Lippman, Sheri A; Reingold, Arthur; Diaz, Ricardo Sobhie; Sucupira, Maria Cecilia; Page, Kimberly; Díaz, Juan

2015-01-01

Objectives The authors estimate the prevalence of HIV, syphilis, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV-2) infection and correlates of HBV and HSV-2 infection among truck drivers crossing the southern Brazilian border at Foz do Iguaçu. Methods Between October 2003 and March 2005, 1945 truck drivers were sampled while accessing voluntary counselling and testing services; 1833 (94.2%) were tested for HIV (ELISA and confirmatory immunofluorescence assay) and syphilis (non-treponemal (VDRL) and treponemal tests (FTA-ABS)). From these, 799 stored sera were tested for HSV-2 (type-specific ELISA test for detection of IgG) and HBV (core antibodies (anti-HBc) with positives tested for surface antigen (HBsAg)). The authors estimate HIV, syphilis, HSV-2 and HBV prevalence and determine socio-demographic and behavioural correlates of HSV-2 infection and HBV exposure. Results HIV prevalence was 0.3% (95% CI 0.1 to 0.6) and syphilis 4.5% (95% CI 3.6 to 5.4). Among those tested for HBV and HSV-2, 32.3% (95% CI 28.9 to 35.6) had serological evidence of exposure to HBV and 26.6% (95% CI 23.5 to 29.7) tested positive for HSV-2. Factors independently associated with HBV exposure included increasing age, Brazilian nationality and unprotected anal sex. Increasing age and reporting an unknown number of lifetime partners were associated with HSV-2 infection. Conclusions In this sample of truck drivers in southern Brazil, HIV prevalence was lower than national population estimates; exposure to HBV was higher than population estimates, while per cent positive for HSV-2 was similar to population estimates. The low prevalence of HIV in truck drivers indicates prevention successes; however, future HIV prevention programming should incorporate HBV vaccination and sexually transmitted infection prevention. PMID:21968460

On estimating probability of presence from use-availability or presence-background data.

PubMed

Phillips, Steven J; Elith, Jane

2013-06-01

A fundamental ecological modeling task is to estimate the probability that a species is present in (or uses) a site, conditional on environmental variables. For many species, available data consist of "presence" data (locations where the species [or evidence of it] has been observed), together with "background" data, a random sample of available environmental conditions. Recently published papers disagree on whether probability of presence is identifiable from such presence-background data alone. This paper aims to resolve the disagreement, demonstrating that additional information is required. We defined seven simulated species representing various simple shapes of response to environmental variables (constant, linear, convex, unimodal, S-shaped) and ran five logistic model-fitting methods using 1000 presence samples and 10 000 background samples; the simulations were repeated 100 times. The experiment revealed a stark contrast between two groups of methods: those based on a strong assumption that species' true probability of presence exactly matches a given parametric form had highly variable predictions and much larger RMS error than methods that take population prevalence (the fraction of sites in which the species is present) as an additional parameter. For six species, the former group grossly under- or overestimated probability of presence. The cause was not model structure or choice of link function, because all methods were logistic with linear and, where necessary, quadratic terms. Rather, the experiment demonstrates that an estimate of prevalence is not just helpful, but is necessary (except in special cases) for identifying probability of presence. We therefore advise against use of methods that rely on the strong assumption, due to Lele and Keim (recently advocated by Royle et al.) and Lancaster and Imbens. The methods are fragile, and their strong assumption is unlikely to be true in practice. We emphasize, however, that we are not arguing against standard statistical methods such as logistic regression, generalized linear models, and so forth, none of which requires the strong assumption. If probability of presence is required for a given application, there is no panacea for lack of data. Presence-background data must be augmented with an additional datum, e.g., species' prevalence, to reliably estimate absolute (rather than relative) probability of presence.

Multi-Method Assessment of Feeding Problems among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharp, William G.; Jaquess, David L.; Lukens, Colleen T.

2013-01-01

Estimates suggest that atypical eating is pervasive among children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD); however, much remains unknown regarding the nature and prevalence of feeding problems in this population due to methodological limitations, including lack of adequate assessment methods and empirical evaluation of existing measures. In the…

Prevalence of Mycoplasma genitalium in different population groups: systematic review andmeta-analysis.

PubMed

Baumann, Lukas; Cina, Manuel; Egli-Gany, Dianne; Goutaki, Myrofora; Halbeisen, Florian S; Lohrer, Gian-Reto; Ali, Hammad; Scott, Pippa; Low, Nicola

2018-06-01

Mycoplasma genitalium is a common cause of non-gonococcal non-chlamydial urethritis and cervicitis. Testing of asymptomatic populations has been proposed, but prevalence in asymptomatic populations is not well established. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of M. genitalium in the general population, pregnant women, men who have sex with men (MSM), commercial sex workers (CSWs) and clinic-based samples, METHODS: We searched Embase, Medline, IndMED, African Index Medicus and LILACS from 1 January 1991 to 12 July 2016 without language restrictions. We included studies with 500 participants or more. Two reviewers independently screened and selected studies and extracted data. We examined forest plots and conducted random-effects meta-analysis to estimate prevalence, if appropriate. Between-study heterogeneity was examined using the I 2 statistic and meta-regression. Of 3316 screened records, 63 were included. In randomly selected samples from the general population, the summary prevalence was 1.3% (95% CI 1.0% to 1.8%, I 2 41.5%, three studies, 9091 people) in countries with higher levels of development and 3.9% (95% CI 2.2 to 6.7, I 2 89.2%, three studies, 3809 people) in countries with lower levels. Prevalence was similar in women and men (P=0.47). In clinic based samples, prevalence estimates were higher, except in asymptomatic patients (0.8%, 95% CI 0.4 to 1.4, I 2 0.0%, three studies, 2889 people). Summary prevalence estimates were, in the following groups: pregnant women 0.9% (95% CI 0.6% to 1.4%, I 2 0%, four studies, 3472 people), MSM in the community 3.2% (95% CI 2.1 to 5.1, I 2 78.3%, five studies, 3012 people) and female CSWs in the community 15.9% (95% CI 13.5 to 18.9, I 2 79.9%, four studies, 4006 people). This systematic review can inform testing guidelines for M. genitalium . The low estimated prevalence of M. genitalium in the general population, pregnant women and asymptomatic attenders at clinics does not support expansion of testing to these groups. PROSPERO: CRD42015020420. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trends in under-5 mortality rates and the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

PubMed Central

Adetunji, J.

2000-01-01

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among adults and mortality rates among under-5-year-olds have increased or stagnated in many countries. The objective of this study was to investigate whether there is a link between under-5 mortality trends and the prevalence of HIV among adults and, if so, to assess the magnitude of the effect of adult HIV prevalence on under-5 mortality rates. METHOD: Data from Demographic and Health Surveys were used to establish the trends in under-5 mortality rates for 25 countries for which there are data for at least two points in time. Countries were ranked according to the most recent adult HIV prevalence data and grouped in three categories: those with very high HIV prevalence (> or = 5%); those with moderately high prevalence (1-4.9%); and those with low prevalence (< 1%). A mathematical model was fitted to obtain an estimate of the contribution of HIV/AIDS to the level of under-5 mortality in each country. RESULTS: Under-5 mortality rates showed an increase in most countries with high adult HIV prevalence, but a decrease in almost every country with moderately high or low prevalence. The estimated contribution of adult HIV prevalence to the observed level of under-5 mortality was highest (up to 61%) in Zimbabwe (where HIV prevalence was highest) and tended to decrease with the level of HIV prevalence. DISCUSSION: The contribution of HIV/AIDS to childhood mortality therefore appears to be most noticeable in settings where the epidemic is most severe. PMID:11100615

Impact of statistical adjustment for frequency of venue attendance in a venue-based survey of men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Gustafson, Paul; Gilbert, Mark; Xia, Michelle; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Trussler, Terry; McGuire, Marissa; Paquette, Dana; Moore, David M; Gustafson, Reka

2013-05-15

Venue sampling is a common sampling method for populations of men who have sex with men (MSM); however, men who visit venues frequently are more likely to be recruited. While statistical adjustment methods are recommended, these have received scant attention in the literature. We developed a novel approach to adjust for frequency of venue attendance (FVA) and assess the impact of associated bias in the ManCount Study, a venue-based survey of MSM conducted in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, in 2008-2009 to measure the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus and other infections and associated behaviors. Sampling weights were determined from an abbreviated list of questions on venue attendance and were used to adjust estimates of prevalence for health and behavioral indicators using a Bayesian, model-based approach. We found little effect of FVA adjustment on biological or sexual behavior indicators (primary outcomes); however, adjustment for FVA did result in differences in the prevalence of demographic indicators, testing behaviors, and a small number of additional variables. While these findings are reassuring and lend credence to unadjusted prevalence estimates from this venue-based survey, adjustment for FVA did shed important insights on MSM subpopulations that were not well represented in the sample.

Diagnoses of Depression and Anxiety Versus Current Symptoms and Quality of Life in Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Marrie, Ruth Ann; Patten, Scott B; Berrigan, Lindsay I; Tremlett, Helen; Wolfson, Christina; Warren, Sharon; Leung, Stella; Fiest, Kirsten M; McKay, Kyla A; Fisk, John D

2018-01-01

Studies assessing the prevalence of depression and anxiety in multiple sclerosis (MS) have used various ascertainment methods that capture different constructs. The relationships between these methods are incompletely understood. Psychiatric comorbidity is associated with lower health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in MS, but the effects of past diagnoses of depression and anxiety on HRQOL are largely unknown. We compared the prevalence of depression and anxiety in persons with MS using administrative data, self-reported physician diagnoses, and symptom-based measures and compared characteristics of persons classified as depressed or anxious by each method. We evaluated whether HRQOL was most affected by previous diagnoses of depression or anxiety or by current symptoms. We linked clinical and administrative data for 859 participants with MS. HRQOL was measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3. We classified participants as depressed or anxious using administrative data, self-reported physician diagnoses, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Multivariable linear regression examined whether diagnosed depression or anxiety affected HRQOL after accounting for current symptoms. Lifetime prevalence estimates for depression were approximately 30% regardless of methods used, but 35.8% with current depressive symptoms were not captured by either administrative data or self-reported diagnoses. Prevalence estimates of anxiety ranged from 11% to 19%, but 65.6% with current anxiety were not captured by either administrative data or self-reported diagnoses. Previous diagnoses did not decrease HRQOL after accounting for current symptoms. Depression and, to a greater extent, anxiety remain underdiagnosed and undertreated in MS; both substantially contribute to reduced HRQOL in MS.

Truth or consequences: the intertemporal consistency of adolescent self-report on the Youth Risk Behavior Survey.

PubMed

Rosenbaum, Janet E

2009-06-01

Surveys are the primary information source about adolescents' health risk behaviors, but adolescents may not report their behaviors accurately. Survey data are used for formulating adolescent health policy, and inaccurate data can cause mistakes in policy creation and evaluation. The author used test-retest data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (United States, 2000) to compare adolescents' responses to 72 questions about their risk behaviors at a 2-week interval. Each question was evaluated for prevalence change and 3 measures of unreliability: inconsistency (retraction and apparent initiation), agreement measured as tetrachoric correlation, and estimated error due to inconsistency assessed with a Bayesian method. Results showed that adolescents report their sex, drug, alcohol, and tobacco histories more consistently than other risk behaviors in a 2-week period, opposite their tendency over longer intervals. Compared with other Youth Risk Behavior Survey topics, most sex, drug, alcohol, and tobacco items had stable prevalence estimates, higher average agreement, and lower estimated measurement error. Adolescents reported their weight control behaviors more unreliably than other behaviors, particularly problematic because of the increased investment in adolescent obesity research and reliance on annual surveys for surveillance and policy evaluation. Most weight control items had unstable prevalence estimates, lower average agreement, and greater estimated measurement error than other topics.

National Economic Burden Associated with Management of Periodontitis in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Ayob, Rasidah; Abd Muttalib, Khairiyah

2016-01-01

Objectives. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic burden associated with the management of periodontitis in Malaysia from the societal perspective. Methods. We estimated the economic burden of periodontitis by combining the disease prevalence with its treatment costs. We estimated treatment costs (with 2012 value of Malaysian Ringgit) using the cost-of-illness approach and included both direct and indirect costs. We used the National Oral Health Survey for Adults (2010) data to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis and 2010 national census data to estimate the adult population at risk for periodontitis. Results. The economic burden of managing all cases of periodontitis at the national level from the societal perspective was approximately MYR 32.5 billion, accounting for 3.83% of the 2012 Gross Domestic Product of the country. It would cost the nation MYR 18.3 billion to treat patients with moderate periodontitis and MYR 13.7 billion to treat patients with severe periodontitis. Conclusion. The economic burden of periodontitis in Malaysia is substantial and comparable with that of other chronic diseases in the country. This is attributable to its high prevalence and high cost of treatment. Judicious application of promotive, preventive, and curative approaches to periodontitis management is decidedly warranted. PMID:27092180

Variation of a test’s sensitivity and specificity with disease prevalence

PubMed Central

Leeflang, Mariska M.G.; Rutjes, Anne W.S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Hooft, Lotty; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.

2013-01-01

Background: Anecdotal evidence suggests that the sensitivity and specificity of a diagnostic test may vary with disease prevalence. Our objective was to investigate the associations between disease prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity using studies of diagnostic accuracy. Methods: We used data from 23 meta-analyses, each of which included 10–39 studies (416 total). The median prevalence per review ranged from 1% to 77%. We evaluated the effects of prevalence on sensitivity and specificity using a bivariate random-effects model for each meta-analysis, with prevalence as a covariate. We estimated the overall effect of prevalence by pooling the effects using the inverse variance method. Results: Within a given review, a change in prevalence from the lowest to highest value resulted in a corresponding change in sensitivity or specificity from 0 to 40 percentage points. This effect was statistically significant (p < 0.05) for either sensitivity or specificity in 8 meta-analyses (35%). Overall, specificity tended to be lower with higher disease prevalence; there was no such systematic effect for sensitivity. Interpretation: The sensitivity and specificity of a test often vary with disease prevalence; this effect is likely to be the result of mechanisms, such as patient spectrum, that affect prevalence, sensitivity and specificity. Because it may be difficult to identify such mechanisms, clinicians should use prevalence as a guide when selecting studies that most closely match their situation. PMID:23798453

Prevalence of School Bullying Among Youth with Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Maïano, Christophe; Normand, Claude L; Salvas, Marie-Claude; Moullec, Grégory; Aimé, Annie

2016-06-01

The true extent of school bullying among youth with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) remains an underexplored area. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to: (a) assess the proportion of school-aged youth with ASD involved in school bullying as perpetrators, victims or both; (b) examine whether the observed prevalence estimates vary when different sources of heterogeneity related to the participants' characteristics and to the assessment methods are considered; and (c) compare the risk of school bullying between youth with ASD and their typically developing (TD) peers. A systematic literature search was performed and 17 studies met the inclusion criteria. The resulting pooled prevalence estimate for general school bullying perpetration, victimization and both was 10%, 44%, and 16%, respectively. Pooled prevalence was also estimated for physical, verbal, and relational school victimization and was 33%, 50%, and 31%, respectively. Moreover, subgroup analyses showed significant variations in the pooled prevalence by geographic location, school setting, information source, type of measures, assessment time frame, and bullying frequency criterion. Finally, school-aged youth with ASD were found to be at greater risk of school victimization in general, as well as verbal bullying, than their TD peers. Autism Res 2016, 9: 601-615. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The prevalence of mental disorders in the working population over the period of global economic crisis.

PubMed

Wang, JianLi; Smailes, Elizabeth; Sareen, Jitender; Fick, Gordon H; Schmitz, Norbert; Patten, Scott B

2010-09-01

The ongoing global economic crisis may have affected people's mental health. This study aimed to, among a sample of the working population, estimate and compare the prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders in different time intervals from January 2008 to October 2009 and to examine the demographic and socioeconomic correlates of mental disorders. From January 2008 to October 2009, 3579 employees in Alberta were recruited using the random digit dialing method. Mental disorders were assessed using the World Health Organization's Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Auto 2.1. The lifetime and 12-month prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders in different time intervals were estimated and compared. The 12-month prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) before September 1, 2008; between September 1, 2008, and March 1, 2009; and between March 1, 2009, and October 30, 2009, was 5.1%, 6.8%, and 7.6% (P = 0.03), respectively. The lifetime prevalence of dysthymia reported during the 3 periods was 0.4%, 0.7%, and 1.5% (P = 0.006), respectively. No changes in the 12-month prevalence of social phobia, panic disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder were found over time. The ongoing global economic crisis may have contributed to the increased prevalence of MDD. Future studies are needed to monitor the changes in the prevalence and to describe how the event may affect people's employment status, income, and health.

The Role of Public Policies in Reducing Smoking

PubMed Central

Levy, David T.; Boyle, Raymond G.; Abrams, David B.

2015-01-01

Background Following the landmark lawsuit and settlement with the tobacco industry, Minnesota pursued the implementation of stricter tobacco control policies, including tax increases, mass media campaigns, smokefree air laws, and cessation treatment policies. Modeling is used to examine policy effects on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Purpose To estimate the effect of tobacco control policies in Minnesota on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths using the SimSmoke simulation model. Methods Minnesota data starting in 1993 are applied to SimSmoke, a simulation model used to examine the effect of tobacco control policies over time on smoking initiation and cessation. Upon validating the model against smoking prevalence, SimSmoke is used to distinguish the effect of policies implemented since 1993 on smoking prevalence. Using standard attribution methods, SimSmoke also estimates deaths averted as a result of the policies. Results SimSmoke predicts smoking prevalence accurately between 1993 and 2011. Since 1993, a relative reduction in smoking rates of 29% by 2011 and of 41% by 2041 can be attributed to tobacco control policies, mainly tax increases, smokefree air laws, media campaigns, and cessation treatment programs. Moreover, 48,000 smoking-attributable deaths will be averted by 2041. Conclusions Minnesota SimSmoke demonstrates that tobacco control policies, especially taxes, have substantially reduced smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. Taxes, smokefree air laws, mass media, cessation treatment policies, and youth-access enforcement contributed to the decline in prevalence and deaths averted, with the strongest component being taxes. With stronger policies, for example, increasing cigarette taxes to $4.00 per pack, Minnesota’s smoking rate could be reduced by another 13%, and 7200 deaths could be averted by 2041. PMID:23079215

Comparison of surveillance methods applied to a situation of low malaria prevalence at rural sites in The Gambia and Guinea Bissau.

PubMed

Satoguina, Judith; Walther, Brigitte; Drakeley, Christopher; Nwakanma, Davis; Oriero, Eniyou C; Correa, Simon; Corran, Patrick; Conway, David J; Walther, Michael

2009-12-02

Health record-based observations from several parts of Africa indicate a major decline in malaria, but up-to-date information on parasite prevalence in West-Africa is sparse. This study aims to provide parasite prevalence data from three sites in the Gambia and Guinea Bissau, respectively, and compares the usefulness of PCR, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT), serology and slide-microscopy for surveillance. Cross-sectional surveys in 12 villages at three rural sites were carried out in the Gambia and Guinea Bissau in January/February 2008, shortly following the annual transmission season. A surprisingly low microscopically detectable parasite prevalence was detected in the Gambia (Farafenni: 10.9%, CI95%: 8.7-13.1%; Basse: 9.0%, CI95%: 7.2-10.8%), and Guinea Bissau (Caio: 4%, CI95%: 2.6-5.4%), with low parasite densities (geometric mean: 104 parasites/microl, CI95%: 76-143/microl). In comparison, PCR detected a more than three times higher proportion of parasite carriers, indicating its usefulness to sensitively identify foci where malaria declines, whereas the RDT had very low sensitivity. Estimates of force of infection using age sero-conversion rates were equivalent to an EIR of approximately 1 infectious bite/person/year, significantly less than previous estimates. The sero-prevalence profiles suggest a gradual decline of malaria transmission, confirming their usefulness in providing information on longer term trends of transmission. A greater variability in parasite prevalence among villages within a site than between sites was observed with all methods. The fact that serology equally captured the inter-village variability, indicates that the observed heterogeneity represents a stable pattern. PCR and serology may be used as complementary tools to survey malaria in areas of declining malaria prevalence such as the Gambia and Guinea Bissau.

The prevalence of hearing impairment within the Cape Town Metropolitan area

PubMed Central

Ramma, Lebogang

2016-01-01

Background There is a lack of data on the prevalence of hearing impairment in South Africa. Current data is unreliable as it is based on national census information which tends to underestimate the prevalence of hearing impairment. Aim The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of hearing impairment in the Cape Town Metropolitan area and to determine factors associated with hearing impairment. Method A cross-sectional household survey involving 2494 partcipants from 718 households was conducted between the months of February and October 2013. Random cluster sampling was used to select four health sub-districts from eight health sub-districts in the Cape Town Metropolitan area using a method of probability proportional to size (PPS). The survey was conducted according to the World Health Organization (WHO) Ear and Hearing Disorders Survey Protocol and the classifcation of hearing impairment matched the WHO’s criteria for the grading of hearing impairment. Results The overall prevalence of hearing impairment in the population of this study was 12.35% (95% CI: 11.06% – 13.64%) and prevalence of disabling hearing impairment was 4.57% (95% CI: 3.75% – 5.39%) amongst individuals ≥ 4 years old. The following factors were found to be associated with hearing impairment; male gender, age, hypertension, a history of head and neck trauma and a family history of hearing impairment. Conclusion Based on the data from communities surveyed during this study, hearing impairment is more prevalent than previously estimated based on national population census information. Interventions for the prevention of hearing impairment in these communities should focus on individuals with associated risk factors. PMID:27247255

Trends in Prevalence of Hypertension in Brazil: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Picon, Rafael V.; Fuchs, Flávio D.; Moreira, Leila B.; Riegel, Glaube; Fuchs, Sandra C.

2012-01-01

Background The prevalence of hypertension in emerging nations was scarcely described to date. In Brazil, many population-based surveys evaluated the prevalence in cities throughout the country. However, there is no population-based nationwide study of prevalence of hypertension. In this study, we estimated the prevalence of hypertension for the country and analyzed the trends for the last three decades. Methods Cross-sectional and cohort studies conducted from 1980 to 2010 were independently identified by two reviewers, without language restriction, in the PubMed, Embase, LILACS, and Scielo electronic databases. Unpublished studies were identified in the Brazilian electronic database of theses and in annals of Cardiology congresses and meetings. In total, 40 studies were selected, comprising 122,018 individuals. Results Summary estimates of prevalence by the former WHO criteria (BP≥160/95 mmHg) in the 1980’s and 1990’s were 23.6% (95% CI 17.3–31.4%) and 19.6% (16.4–23.3%) respectively. The prevalence of hypertension by the JNC criteria (BP≥140/90 mmHg) in the 1980’s, 1990’s and 2000’s were 36.1% (95% CI 28.7–44.2%), 32.9% (29.9–36.0%), and 28.7% (26.2–31.4%), respectively (P<0.001). In the 2000’s, the pooled prevalence estimates of self-reported hypertension on telephone inquiries was 20.6% (19.0–22.4%), and of self-reported hypertension in home surveys was 25.2% (23.3–27.2%). Conclusions The prevalence of hypertension in Brazil seems to have diminished 6% in the last three decades, but it still is approximately 30%. Nationwide surveys by self-reporting by telephone interviews underestimate the real prevalence. Rates of blood pressure control decreased in the same period, corresponding currently to only one quarter of individuals with hypertension. PMID:23118964

A systematic review of the worldwide prevalence of survivors of poliomyelitis reported in 31 studies

PubMed Central

Balalla, Shivanthi; Theadom, Alice; Jackman, Gordon; Feigin, Valery L

2017-01-01

Background Accurate prevalence figures estimating the number of survivors of poliomyelitis (disease causing acute flaccid paralysis) following poliovirus infection are not available. We aim to undertake a systematic review of all literature concerning the prevalence of survivors of poliomyelitis. Methods Electronic databases were searched from 1900 up to May 2016 for peer-reviewed studies using a population-based approach witha defined denominator and some form of diagnostic or clinical verification of polio. Exclusion criteria were any prevalence data that were unable to be extracted or calculated and studies reporting on incidence only. The quality of each included study was assessed using an existing tool modified for use in prevalence studies. Average crude prevalence rates were used to calculate worldwide estimates. Results Thirty-one studies met criteria with 90% of studies conducted in low-income to lower middle-income countries. Significant variability in the prevalence of survivors of poliomyelitis was revealed, in low- income to lower middle-income (15 per 100 000 in Nigeria to 1733 in India) and upper-middle to high-income countries (24 (Japan) to 380 per 100 000 (Brazil). The total combined prevalence of survivors of poliomyelitis for those studies at low to moderate risk of bias ranged from 165 (high-income countries) to 425 (low-income to lower middle-income countries) per 100 000 person-years. Historical lameness surveys of children predominated, with wide variation in case definition and assessment criteria, and limited relevance to current prevalence given the lack of incidence of poliovirus infection in the ensuing years. Conclusions These results highlight the need for future epidemiological studies of poliomyelitis to examine nationally representative samples, including all ages and greater focus on high-income countries. Such efforts will improve capacity to provide reliable and more robust worldwide prevalence estimates. PMID:28694346

Geography of Adolescent Obesity in the U.S., 2007-2011.

PubMed

Kramer, Michael R; Raskind, Ilana G; Van Dyke, Miriam E; Matthews, Stephen A; Cook-Smith, Jessica N

2016-12-01

Obesity remains a significant threat to the current and long-term health of U.S. adolescents. The authors developed county-level estimates of adolescent obesity for the contiguous U.S., and then explored the association between 23 conceptually derived area-based correlates of adolescent obesity and ecologic obesity prevalence. Multilevel small area regression methods applied to the 2007 and 2011-2012 National Survey of Children's Health produced county-level obesity prevalence estimates for children aged 10-17 years. Exploratory multivariable Bayesian regression estimated the cross-sectional association between nutrition, activity, and macrosocial characteristics of counties and states, and county-level obesity prevalence. All analyses were conducted in 2015. Adolescent obesity varies geographically with clusters of high prevalence in the Deep South and Southern Appalachian regions. Geographic disparities and clustering in observed data are largely explained by hypothesized area-based variables. In adjusted models, activity environment, but not nutrition environment variables were associated with county-level obesity prevalence. County violent crime was associated with higher obesity, whereas recreational facility density was associated with lower obesity. Measures of the macrosocial and relational domain, including community SES, community health, and social marginalization, were the strongest correlates of county-level obesity. County-level estimates of adolescent obesity demonstrate notable geographic disparities, which are largely explained by conceptually derived area-based contextual measures. This ecologic exploratory study highlights the importance of taking a multidimensional approach to understanding the social and community context in which adolescents make obesity-relevant behavioral choices. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An estimate of the prevalence of epilepsy in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic analysis.

PubMed

Paul, Abigail; Adeloye, Davies; George-Carey, Rhiannon; Kolčić, Ivana; Grant, Liz; Chan, Kit Yee

2012-12-01

Epilepsy is a leading serious neurological condition worldwide and has particularly significant physical, economic and social consequences in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper aims to contribute to the understanding of epilepsy prevalence in this region and how this varies by age and sex so as to inform understanding of the disease characteristics as well as the development of infrastructure, services and policies. A parallel systematic analysis of Medline, Embase and Global Health returned 32 studies that satisfied pre-defined quality criteria. Relevant data was extracted, tabulated and analyzed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age-specific and overall burden of epilepsy. Active epilepsy was estimated to affect 4.4 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, whilst lifetime epilepsy was estimated to affect 5.4 million. The prevalence of active epilepsy peaks in the 20-29 age group at 11.5/1000 and again in the 40-49 age group at 8.2/1000. The lowest prevalence value of 3.1/1000 is seen in the 60+ age group. This binomial pattern is also seen in both men and women, with the second peak more pronounced in women at 14.6/1000. The high prevalence of epilepsy, especially in young adults, has important consequences for both the workforce and community structures. An estimation of disease burden would be a beneficial outcome of further research, as would research into appropriate methods of improving health care for and tackling discrimination against people with epilepsy.

The impact of measurement differences on cross-country depression prevalence estimates: A latent transition analysis.

PubMed

Scorza, Pamela; Masyn, Katherine; Salomon, Joshua A; Betancourt, Theresa S

2018-01-01

Depression is currently the second largest contributor to non-fatal disease burden globally. For that reason, economic evaluations are increasingly being conducted using data from depression prevalence estimates to analyze return on investments for services that target mental health. Psychiatric epidemiology studies have reported large cross-national differences in the prevalence of depression. These differences may impact the cost-effectiveness assessments of mental health interventions, thereby affecting decisions regarding government and multi-lateral investment in mental health services. Some portion of the differences in prevalence estimates across countries may be due to true discrepancies in depression prevalence, resulting from differential levels of risk in environmental and demographic factors. However, some portion of those differences may reflect non-invariance in the way standard tools measure depression across countries. This paper attempts to discern the extent to which measurement differences are responsible for reported differences in the prevalence of depression across countries. This analysis uses data from the World Mental Health Surveys, a coordinated series of psychiatric epidemiology studies in 27 countries using multistage household probability samples to assess prevalence and correlates of mental disorders. Data in the current study include responses to the depression module of the World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI) in four countries: Two high-income, western countries-the United States (n = 20, 015) and New Zealand (n = 12,992)-an upper-middle income sub-Saharan African country, South Africa (n = 4,351), and a lower-middle income sub-Saharan African country, Nigeria (n = 6,752). Latent class analysis, a type of finite mixture modeling, was used to categorize respondents into underlying categories based on the variation in their responses to questions in each of three sequential parts of the CIDI depression module: 1) The initial screening items, 2) Additional duration and severity exclusion criteria, and 3) The core symptom questions. After each of these parts, exclusion criteria expel respondents from the remainder of the diagnostic interview, rendering a diagnosis of "not depressed". Latent class models were fit to each of the three parts in each of the four countries, and model fit was assessed using overall chi-square values and Pearson standardized residuals. Latent transition analysis was then applied in order to model participants' progression through the CIDI depression module. Proportion of individuals falling into each latent class and probabilities of transitioning into subsequent classes were used to estimate the percentage in each country that ultimately fell into the more symptomatic class, i.e. classified as "depressed". This latent variable design allows for a non-zero probability that individuals were incorrectly excluded from or retained in the diagnostic interview at any of the three exclusion points and therefore incorrectly diagnosed. Prevalence estimates based on the latent transition model reversed the order of depression prevalence across countries. Based on the latent transition model in this analysis, Nigeria has the highest prevalence (21.6%), followed by New Zealand (17.4%), then South Africa (15.0%), and finally the US (12.5%). That is compared to the estimates in the World Mental Health Surveys that do not allow for measurement differences, in which Nigeria had by far the lowest prevalence (3.1%), followed by South Africa (9.8%), then the United States (13.5%) and finally New Zealand (17.8%). Individuals endorsing the screening questions in Nigeria and South Africa were more likely to endorse more severe depression symptomology later in the module (i.e. they had higher transition probabilities), suggesting that individuals in the two Western countries may be more likely to endorse screening questions even when they don't have as severe symptoms. These differences narrow the range of depression prevalence between countries 14 percentage points in the original estimates to 6 percentage points in the estimate taking account of measurement differences. These data suggest fewer differences in cross-national prevalence of depression than previous estimates. Given that prevalence data are used to support key decisions regarding resource-allocation for mental health services, more critical attention should be paid to differences in the functioning of measurement across contexts and the impact these differences have on prevalence estimates. Future research should include qualitative methods as well as external measures of disease severity, such as impairment, to assess how the latent classes predict these external variables, to better understand the way that standard tools estimate depression prevalence across contexts. Adjustments could then be made to prevalence estimates used in cost-effectiveness analyses.

Prevalence of intestinal protozoa infection among school-aged children on Pemba Island, Tanzania, and effect of single-dose albendazole, nitazoxanide and albendazole-nitazoxanide

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Pathogenic intestinal protozoa infections are common in school-aged children in the developing world and they are frequently associated with malabsorption syndromes and gastrointestinal morbidity. Since diagnosis of these parasites is difficult, prevalence data on intestinal protozoa is scarce. Methods We collected two stool samples from school-aged children on Pemba Island, Tanzania, as part of a randomized controlled trial before and 3 weeks after treatment with (i) single-dose albendazole (400 mg); (ii) single-dose nitazoxanide (1,000 mg); (iii) nitazoxanide-albendazole combination (1,000 mg–400 mg), with each drug given separately on two consecutive days; and (iv) placebo. Formalin-fixed stool samples were examined for the presence of intestinal protozoa using an ether-concentration method to determine the prevalence and estimate cure rates (CRs). Results Almost half (48.7%) of the children were diagnosed with at least one of the (potentially) pathogenic protozoa Giardia intestinalis, Entamoeba histolytica/E. dispar and Blastocystis hominis. Observed CRs were high for all treatment arms, including placebo. Nitazoxanide showed a significant effect compared to placebo against the non-pathogenic protozoon Entamoeba coli. Conclusions Intestinal protozoa infections might be of substantial health relevance even in settings where they are not considered as a health problem. Examination of a single stool sample with the ether-concentration method lacks sensitivity for the diagnosis of intestinal protozoa, and hence, care is indicated when interpreting prevalence estimates and treatment effects. PMID:23289920

Bulk tank somatic cell counts analyzed by statistical process control tools to identify and monitor subclinical mastitis incidence.

PubMed

Lukas, J M; Hawkins, D M; Kinsel, M L; Reneau, J K

2005-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between monthly Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates and daily bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC) summarized by statistical process control tools. Dairy Herd Improvement Association test-day subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates along with daily or every other day bulk tank SCC data were collected for 12 mo of 2003 from 275 Upper Midwest dairy herds. Herds were divided into 5 herd production categories. A linear score [LNS = ln(BTSCC/100,000)/0.693147 + 3] was calculated for each individual bulk tank SCC. For both the raw SCC and the transformed data, the mean and sigma were calculated using the statistical quality control individual measurement and moving range chart procedure of Statistical Analysis System. One hundred eighty-three herds of the 275 herds from the study data set were then randomly selected and the raw (method 1) and transformed (method 2) bulk tank SCC mean and sigma were used to develop models for predicting subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates. Herd production category was also included in all models as 5 dummy variables. Models were validated by calculating estimates of subclinical mastitis and new infection rates for the remaining 92 herds and plotting them against observed values of each of the dependents. Only herd production category and bulk tank SCC mean were significant and remained in the final models. High R2 values (0.83 and 0.81 for methods 1 and 2, respectively) indicated a strong correlation between the bulk tank SCC and herd's subclinical mastitis prevalence. The standard errors of the estimate were 4.02 and 4.28% for methods 1 and 2, respectively, and decreased with increasing herd production. As a case study, Shewhart Individual Measurement Charts were plotted from the bulk tank SCC to identify shifts in mastitis incidence. Four of 5 charts examined signaled a change in bulk tank SCC before the DHI test day identified the change in subclinical mastitis prevalence. It can be concluded that applying statistical process control tools to daily bulk tank SCC can be used to estimate subclinical mastitis prevalence in the herd and observe for change in the subclinical mastitis status. Single DHI test day estimates of new infection rate were insufficient to accurately describe its dynamics.

Sandwich mapping of schistosomiasis risk in Anhui Province, China.

PubMed

Hu, Yi; Bergquist, Robert; Lynn, Henry; Gao, Fenghua; Wang, Qizhi; Zhang, Shiqing; Li, Rui; Sun, Liqian; Xia, Congcong; Xiong, Chenglong; Zhang, Zhijie; Jiang, Qingwu

2015-06-03

Schistosomiasis mapping using data obtained from parasitological surveys is frequently used in planning and evaluation of disease control strategies. The available geostatistical approaches are, however, subject to the assumption of stationarity, a stochastic process whose joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. As this is impractical for large areas, we introduce here the sandwich method, the basic idea of which is to divide the study area (with its attributes) into homogeneous subareas and estimate the values for the reporting units using spatial stratified sampling. The sandwich method was applied to map the county-level prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in Anhui Province, China based on parasitological data collected from sample villages and land use data. We first mapped the county-level prevalence using the sandwich method, then compared our findings with block Kriging. The sandwich estimates ranged from 0.17 to 0.21% with a lower level of uncertainty, while the Kriging estimates varied from 0 to 0.97% with a higher level of uncertainty, indicating that the former is more smoothed and stable compared to latter. Aside from various forms of reporting units, the sandwich method has the particular merit of simple model assumption coupled with full utilization of sample data. It performs well when a disease presents stratified heterogeneity over space.

Estimating population prevalence of psychiatric conditions by small area with applications to analysing outcome and referral variations.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2006-12-01

This paper considers the development of estimates of mental illness prevalence for small areas and applications in explaining psychiatric outcomes and in assessing service provision. Estimates of prevalence are based on a logistic regression analysis of two national studies that provides model based estimates of relative morbidity risk by demographic, socio-economic and ethnic group for major psychiatric conditions; household/marital and area status also figure in the regression. Relative risk estimates are used, along with suitably disaggregated census populations, to make prevalence estimates for 354 English local authorities (LAs). Two applications are considered: the first involves analysis of variations in schizophrenia referrals and suicide mortality over English LAs that takes account of prevalence differences, and the second involves assessing hospital referral and bed use in relation to prevalence (for ages 16-74) for a case study area, Waltham Forest in NE London.

Estimation and Projection of Prevalence of Colorectal Cancer in Iran, 2015-2020.

PubMed

Vardanjani, Hossein Molavi; Haghdoost, AliAkbar; Bagheri-Lankarani, Kamran; Hadipour, Maryam

2018-01-01

Population aging and more prevalent westernized lifestyle would be expected to result in a markedly rising burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the future years. The aim of this study is to estimate the limited-time prevalence of CRC in Iran between 2015 and 2020. Aggregated CRC incidence data were extracted from the Iranian national cancer registry (IR.NCR) reports for 2003-2009 and from GLOBOCAN-2012 database for 2012. Incidence trends were analyzed by age groups, genders, histopathologic, and topographic subtypes to estimate annual percentage changes. Incidence was projected for 2020. The prevalence was estimated applying an adopted version of a previously introduced equation to estimate limited-time prevalence based on the incidence and survival data. Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses were applied to estimate 95% uncertainty levels (ULs). In each scenario, incidence, survival, annual percentage changes, and completeness of case ascertainment at IR.NCR were replaced under pre-assumed distributions. Number of estimated within 1, 2-3 and 4-5-year CRC patients in 2015 were 13676 (95% UL: 10051-18807), 20964 (15835-28268), and 14485 (11188-19293), respectively. Estimated 5-year prevalence for 2020 (99463; 75150-134744) was 2.03 times of that for 2015. Highest 5-year prevalence was estimated in ages 55-59 for females and 75 + for males. Adenocarcinoma (41376; 31227 55898) was the most prevalent histologic subtype. The most prevalent tumor location was colon (30822, 23262-41638). A substantial growth in the prevalence of CRC survivors is highly expected for future years in Iran. Establishment of specialized institutes is highly recommended to provide medical and especially social supports for Iranian CRC survivors.

Violence and Drug Use in Rural Teens: National Prevalence Estimates from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Andrew O.; Mink, Michael D.; Harun, Nusrat; Moore, Charity G.; Martin, Amy B.; Bennett, Kevin J.

2008-01-01

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare national estimates of drug use and exposure to violence between rural and urban teens. Methods: Twenty-eight dependent variables from the 2003 Youth Risk Behavior Survey were used to compare violent activities, victimization, suicidal behavior, tobacco use, alcohol use, and illegal drug use…

Defining Arthritis for Public Health Surveillance: Methods and Estimates in Four US Population Health Surveys.

PubMed

Murphy, Louise B; Cisternas, Miriam G; Greenlund, Kurt J; Giles, Wayne; Hannan, Casey; Helmick, Charles G

2017-03-01

To determine the variability of arthritis prevalence in 4 US population health surveys. We estimated annualized arthritis prevalence in 2011-2012, among adults age ≥20 years, using 2 definition methods, both based on self-report: 1) doctor-/health care provider-diagnosed arthritis in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), and Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS); and 2) three arthritis definitions based on International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) criteria in MEPS (National Arthritis Data Workgroup on Arthritis and Other Rheumatic Conditions [NADW-AORC], Clinical Classifications Software [CCS], and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC]). Diagnosed arthritis prevalence percentages using the surveys were within 3 points of one another (BRFSS 26.2% [99% confidence interval (99% CI) 26.0-26.4], MEPS 26.1% [99% CI 25.0-27.2], NHIS 23.5% [99% CI 22.9-24.1], NHANES 23.0% [99% CI 19.2-26.8]), and those using ICD-9-CM were within 5 percentage points of one another (CCS 25.8% [99% CI 24.6-27.1]; CDC 28.3% [99% CI 27.0-29.6]; and NADW-AORC 30.7% [99% CI 29.4-32.1]). The variation in the estimated number (in millions) affected with diagnosed arthritis was 7.8 (BRFSS 58.5 [99% CI 58.1-59.1], MEPS 59.3 [99% CI 55.6-63.1], NHANES 51.5 [99% CI 37.2-65.5], and NHIS 52.6 [99% CI 50.9-54.4]), and using ICD-9-CM definitions it was 11.1 (CCS 58.7 [99% CI 54.5-62.9], CDC 64.3 [99% CI 59.9-68.6], and NADW 69.9 [99% CI 65.2-74.5]). Most (57-70%) reporting diagnosed arthritis also reported ICD-9-CM arthritis; respondents reporting diagnosed arthritis were older than those meeting ICD-9-CM definitions. Proxy response status affected arthritis prevalence differently across surveys. Public health practitioners and decision makers are frequently charged with choosing a single number to represent arthritis prevalence in the US population. We encourage them to consider the surveys' purpose, design, measurement methods, and statistical precision when choosing an estimate. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Hepatitis C Virus Epidemiology in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Chaabna, Karima; Kouyoumjian, Silva P.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

2016-01-01

Objectives To characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology and assess country-specific population-level HCV prevalence in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen. Methods Reports of HCV prevalence were systematically reviewed as per PRISMA guidelines. Pooled HCV prevalence estimates in different risk populations were conducted when the number of measures per risk category was at least five. Results We identified 101 prevalence estimates. Pooled HCV antibody prevalence in the general population in Somalia, Sudan and Yemen was 0.9% (95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 0.3%–1.9%), 1.0% (95%CI: 0.3%–1.9%) and 1.9% (95%CI: 1.4%–2.6%), respectively. The only general population study from Djibouti reported a prevalence of 0.3% (CI: 0.2%–0.4%) in blood donors. In high-risk populations (e.g., haemodialysis and haemophilia patients), pooled HCV prevalence was 17.3% (95%CI: 8.6%–28.2%) in Sudan. In Yemen, three studies of haemodialysis patients reported HCV prevalence between 40.0%-62.7%. In intermediate-risk populations (e.g.. healthcare workers, in patients and men who have sex with men), pooled HCV prevalence was 1.7% (95%CI: 0.0%–4.9%) in Somalia and 0.6% (95%CI: 0.4%–0.8%) in Sudan. Conclusion National HCV prevalence in Yemen appears to be higher than in Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan as well as most other MENA countries; but otherwise prevalence levels in this subregion are comparable to global levels. The high HCV prevalence in patients who have undergone clinical care appears to reflect ongoing transmission in clinical settings. HCV prevalence in people who inject drugs remains unknown. PMID:26900839

Prevalence of Depression and Depressive Symptoms Among Resident Physicians A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Mata, Douglas A.; Ramos, Marco A.; Bansal, Narinder; Khan, Rida; Guille, Constance; Angelantonio, Emanuele Di; Sen, Srijan

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Physicians in training are at high risk for depression. However, the estimated prevalence of this disorder varies substantially between studies. OBJECTIVE To provide a summary estimate of depression or depressive symptom prevalence among resident physicians. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Systematic search of EMBASE, ERIC, MEDLINE, and PsycINFO for studies with information on the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among resident physicians published between January 1963 and September 2015. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they were published in the peer-reviewed literature and used a validated method to assess for depression or depressive symptoms. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Information on study characteristics and depression or depressive symptom prevalence was extracted independently by 2 trained investigators. Estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Differences by study-level characteristics were estimated using meta-regression. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Point or period prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms as assessed by structured interview or validated questionnaire. RESULTS Data were extracted from 31 cross-sectional studies (9447 individuals) and 23 longitudinal studies (8113 individuals). Three studies used clinical interviews and 51 used self-report instruments. The overall pooled prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms was 28.8% (4969/17 560 individuals, 95% CI, 25.3%-32.5%), with high between-study heterogeneity (Q = 1247, τ2 = 0.39, I2 = 95.8%, P < .001). Prevalence estimates ranged from 20.9% for the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire with a cutoff of 10 or more (741/3577 individuals, 95% CI, 17.5%-24.7%, Q = 14.4, τ2 = 0.04, I2 = 79.2%) to 43.2% for the 2-item PRIME-MD (1349/2891 individuals, 95% CI, 37.6%-49.0%, Q = 45.6, τ2 = 0.09, I2 = 84.6%). There was an increased prevalence with increasing calendar year (slope = 0.5% increase per year, adjusted for assessment modality; 95% CI, 0.03%-0.9%, P = .04). In a secondary analysis of 7 longitudinal studies, the median absolute increase in depressive symptoms with the onset of residency training was 15.8% (range, 0.3%-26.3%; relative risk, 4.5). No statistically significant differences were observed between cross-sectional vs longitudinal studies, studies of only interns vs only upper-level residents, or studies of nonsurgical vs both nonsurgical and surgical residents. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this systematic review, the summary estimate of the prevalence of depression or depressive symptoms among resident physicians was 28.8%, ranging from 20.9% to 43.2% depending on the instrument used, and increased with calendar year. Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for preventing and treating depression among physicians in training. PMID:26647259

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

Respondent-Driven Sampling of Injection Drug Users in Two U.S.–Mexico Border Cities: Recruitment Dynamics and Impact on Estimates of HIV and Syphilis Prevalence

PubMed Central

Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Firestone Cruz, Michelle A.; Ramos, Rebeca; Ramos, Maria Elena; Lozada, Remedios M.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A.

2006-01-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a chain referral sampling approach, is increasingly used to recruit participants from hard-to-reach populations, such as injection drug users (IDUs). Using RDS, we recruited IDUs in Tijuana and Ciudad (Cd.) Juárez, two Mexican cities bordering San Diego, CA and El Paso, TX, respectively, and compared recruitment dynamics, reported network size, and estimates of HIV and syphilis prevalence. Between February and April 2005, we used RDS to recruit IDUs in Tijuana (15 seeds, 207 recruits) and Cd. Juárez (9 seeds, 197 recruits), Mexico for a cross-sectional study of behavioral and contextual factors associated with HIV, HCV and syphilis infections. All subjects provided informed consent, an anonymous interview, and a venous blood sample for serologic testing of HIV, HCV, HBV (Cd. Juárez only) and syphilis antibody. Log-linear models were used to analyze the association between the state of the recruiter and that of the recruitee in the referral chains, and population estimates of the presence of syphilis antibody were obtained, correcting for biased sampling using RDS-based estimators. Sampling of the targeted 200 recruits per city was achieved rapidly (2 months in Tijuana, 2 weeks in Cd. Juárez). After excluding seeds and missing data, the sample prevalence of HCV, HIV and syphilis were 96.6, 1.9 and 13.5% respectively in Tijuana, and 95.3, 4.1, and 2.7% respectively in Cd. Juárez (where HBV prevalence was 84.7%). Syphilis cases were clustered in recruitment trees. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis antibody prevalence ranged from 12.8 to 26.8% in Tijuana and from 2.9 to 15.6% in Ciudad Juárez, depending on how recruitment patterns were modeled, and assumptions about how network size affected an individual’s probability of being included in the sample. RDS was an effective method to rapidly recruit IDUs in these cities. Although the frequency of HIV was low, syphilis prevalence was high, particularly in Tijuana. RDS-corrected estimates of syphilis prevalence were sensitive to model assumptions, suggesting that further validation of RDS is necessary. PMID:17072761

Risk of poor development in young children in low-income and middle-income countries: an estimation and analysis at the global, regional, and country level

PubMed Central

Lu, Chunling; Black, Maureen M; Richter, Linda M

2018-01-01

Summary Background A 2007 study published in The Lancet estimated that approximately 219 million children aged younger than 5 years were exposed to stunting or extreme poverty in 2004. We updated the 2004 estimates with the use of improved data and methods and generated estimates for 2010. Methods We used country-level prevalence of stunting in children younger than 5 years based on the 2006 Growth Standards proposed by WHO and poverty ratios from the World Bank to estimate children who were either stunted or lived in extreme poverty for 141 low-income and middle-income countries in 2004 and 2010. To avoid counting the same children twice, we excluded children jointly exposed to stunting and extreme poverty from children living in extreme poverty. To examine the robustness of estimates, we also used moderate poverty measures. Findings The 2007 study underestimated children at risk of poor development. The estimated number of children exposed to the two risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries decreased from 279·1 million (95% CI 250·4 million–307·4 million) in 2004 to 249·4 million (209·3 million–292·6 million) in 2010; prevalence of children at risk fell from 51% (95% CI 46–56) to 43% (36–51). The decline occurred in all income groups and regions with south Asia experiencing the largest drop. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence in both years. These findings were robust to variations in poverty measures. Interpretation Progress has been made in reducing the number of children exposed to stunting or poverty between 2004 and 2010, but this is still not enough. Scaling up of effective interventions targeting the most vulnerable children is urgently needed. Funding National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Hilton Foundation, and WHO. PMID:27717632

Prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Zhan-Zhan; Li, Ya-Ming; Lei, Xian-Yang; Zhang, Dan; Liu, Li; Tang, Si-Yuan; Chen, Lizhang

2014-01-01

About 1 million people worldwide commit suicide each year, and college students with suicidal ideation are at high risk of suicide. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in college students has been estimated extensively, but quantitative syntheses of overall prevalence are scarce, especially in China. Accurate estimates of prevalence are important for making public policy. In this paper, we aimed to determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students. Databases including PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Chinese Web of Knowledge, Wangfang (Chinese database) and Weipu (Chinese database) were systematically reviewed to identify articles published between 2004 to July 2013, in either English or Chinese, reporting prevalence estimates of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students. The strategy also included a secondary search of reference lists of records retrieved from databases. Then the prevalence estimates were summarized using a random effects model. The effects of moderator variables on the prevalence estimates were assessed using a meta-regression model. A total of 41 studies involving 160339 college students were identified, and the prevalence ranged from 1.24% to 26.00%. The overall pooled prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese college students was 10.72% (95%CI: 8.41% to 13.28%). We noted substantial heterogeneity in prevalence estimates. Subgroup analyses showed that prevalence of suicidal ideation in females is higher than in males. The prevalence of suicidal ideation in Chinese college students is relatively high, although the suicide rate is lower compared with the entire society, suggesting the need for local surveys to inform the development of health services for college students.

Prevalence and Functioning of Children with Cerebral Palsy in Four Areas of the United States in 2006: A Report from the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirby, Russell S.; Wingate, Martha S.; Van Naarden Braun, Kim; Doernberg, Nancy S.; Arneson, Carrie L.; Benedict, Ruth E.; Mulvihill, Beverly; Durkin, Maureen S.; Fitzgerald, Robert T.; Maenner, Matthew J.; Patz, Jean A.; Yeargin-Allsopp, Marshalyn

2011-01-01

Aim: To estimate the prevalence of cerebral palsy (CP) and the frequency of co-occurring developmental disabilities (DDs), gross motor function (GMF), and walking ability using the largest surveillance DD database in the US. Methods: We conducted population-based surveillance of 8-year-old children in 2006 (N = 142,338), in areas of Alabama,…

Effects of Serum Creatinine Calibration on Estimated Renal Function in African Americans: the Jackson Heart Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Wei; Young, Bessie A.; Fülöp, Tibor; de Boer, Ian H.; Boulware, L. Ebony; Katz, Ronit; Correa, Adolfo; Griswold, Michael E.

2015-01-01

Background The calibration to Isotope Dilution Mass Spectroscopy (IDMS) traceable creatinine is essential for valid use of the new Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation to estimate the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Methods For 5,210 participants in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS), serum creatinine was measured with a multipoint enzymatic spectrophotometric assay at the baseline visit (2000–2004) and re-measured using the Roche enzymatic method, traceable to IDMS in a subset of 206 subjects. The 200 eligible samples (6 were excluded, 1 for failure of the re-measurement and 5 for outliers) were divided into three disjoint sets - training, validation, and test - to select a calibration model, estimate true errors, and assess performance of the final calibration equation. The calibration equation was applied to serum creatinine measurements of 5,210 participants to estimate GFR and the prevalence of CKD. Results The selected Deming regression model provided a slope of 0.968 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.904 to 1.053) and intercept of −0.0248 (95% CI, −0.0862 to 0.0366) with R squared 0.9527. Calibrated serum creatinine showed high agreement with actual measurements when applying to the unused test set (concordance correlation coefficient 0.934, 95% CI, 0.894 to 0.960). The baseline prevalence of CKD in the JHS (2000–2004) was 6.30% using calibrated values, compared with 8.29% using non-calibrated serum creatinine with the CKD-EPI equation (P < 0.001). Conclusions A Deming regression model was chosen to optimally calibrate baseline serum creatinine measurements in the JHS and the calibrated values provide a lower CKD prevalence estimate. PMID:25806862

Maternal Smoking Among Women With and Without Use of Assisted Reproductive Technologies

PubMed Central

Tong, Van T.; Kissin, Dmitry M.; Bernson, Dana; Copeland, Glenn; Boulet, Sheree L.; Zhang, Yujia; Jamieson, Denise J.; England, Lucinda J.

2016-01-01

Objective To estimate smoking prevalence during the year before pregnancy and during pregnancy and adverse outcomes among women who delivered infants with and without assisted reproductive technology (ART) using linked birth certificates (BC) and National ART Surveillance System (NASS) data. Methods Data were analyzed for 384,390 women and 392,248 infants born in Massachusetts and Michigan during 2008–2009. Maternal smoking prevalence was estimated using smoking indicated from BC by ART status. For ART users, to evaluate underreporting, prepregnancy smoking was estimated from BC, NASS, or both sources. Effect of prenatal smoking on preterm and mean birthweight (term only) for singleton infants were examined by ART status. Results Maternal smoking prevalence estimates were significantly lower for ART users than nonusers (pre-pregnancy = 3.2% vs. 16.7%; prenatal = 1.0% vs. 11.1%, p < 0.05). When combining smoking information from BC and NASS, prepregnancy smoking prevalence estimates for ART users could be as high as 4.4% to 6.1%. Adverse effects of smoking on infant outcomes in ART pregnancies were consistent with the effects seen in non-ART pregnancies, specifically decline in infant birthweight and increase in preterm delivery, although association between smoking and preterm was not significant. Conclusion A low, but substantial proportion of ART users smoked before and during pregnancy. As ART users are highly motivated to get pregnant, it should be clearly communicated that smoking can decrease fertility and adversely affect pregnancy outcomes. Continued efforts are needed to encourage smoking cessation and maintain tobacco abstinence among all women of reproductive age. PMID:27243366

Observational and ecological studies of dietary advanced glycation end products in national diets and Alzheimer's disease incidence and prevalence.

PubMed

Perrone, Lorena; Grant, William B

2015-01-01

Considerable evidence indicates that diet is an important risk-modifying factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Evidence is also mounting that dietary advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are important risk factors for AD. This study strives to determine whether estimated dietary AGEs estimated from national diets and epidemiological studies are associated with increased AD incidence. We estimated values of dietary AGEs using values in a published paper. We estimated intake of dietary AGEs from the Washington Heights-Inwood Community Aging Project (WHICAP) 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, which investigated how the Mediterranean diet (MeDi) affected AD incidence. Further, AD prevalence data came from three ecological studies and included data from 11 countries for 1977-1993, seven developing countries for 1995-2005, and Japan for 1985-2008. The analysis used dietary AGE values from 20 years before the AD prevalence data. Meat was always the food with the largest amount of AGEs. Other foods with significant AGEs included fish, cheese, vegetables, and vegetable oil. High MeDi adherence results in lower meat and dairy intake, which possess high AGE content. By using two different models to extrapolate dietary AGE intake in the WHICAP 1992 and 1999 cohort studies, we showed that reduced dietary AGE significantly correlates with reduced AD incidence. For the ecological studies, estimates of dietary AGEs in the national diets corresponded well with AD prevalence data even though the cooking methods were not well known. Dietary AGEs appear to be important risk factors for AD.

Consistent Estimates of Very Low HIV Incidence Among People Who Inject Drugs: New York City, 2005–2014

PubMed Central

Arasteh, Kamyar; McKnight, Courtney; Feelemyer, Jonathan; Campbell, Aimée N. C.; Tross, Susan; Smith, Lou; Cooper, Hannah L. F.; Hagan, Holly; Perlman, David

2016-01-01

Objectives. To compare methods for estimating low HIV incidence among persons who inject drugs. Methods. We examined 4 methods in New York City, 2005 to 2014: (1) HIV seroconversions among repeat participants, (2) increase of HIV prevalence by additional years of injection among new injectors, (3) the New York State and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stratified extrapolation algorithm, and (4) newly diagnosed HIV cases reported to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Results. The 4 estimates were consistent: (1) repeat participants: 0.37 per 100 person-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05/100 PY, 1.33/100 PY); (2) regression of prevalence by years injecting: 0.61 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.36/100 PY, 0.87/100 PY); (3) stratified extrapolation algorithm: 0.32 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.18/100 PY, 0.46/100 PY); and (4) newly diagnosed cases of HIV: 0.14 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.11/100 PY, 0.16/100 PY). Conclusions. All methods appear to capture the same phenomenon of very low and decreasing HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs. Public Health Implications. If resources are available, the use of multiple methods would provide better information for public health purposes. PMID:26794160

Inverse probability weighting and doubly robust methods in correcting the effects of non-response in the reimbursed medication and self-reported turnout estimates in the ATH survey.

PubMed

Härkänen, Tommi; Kaikkonen, Risto; Virtala, Esa; Koskinen, Seppo

2014-11-06

To assess the nonresponse rates in a questionnaire survey with respect to administrative register data, and to correct the bias statistically. The Finnish Regional Health and Well-being Study (ATH) in 2010 was based on a national sample and several regional samples. Missing data analysis was based on socio-demographic register data covering the whole sample. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) methods were estimated using the logistic regression model, which was selected using the Bayesian information criteria. The crude, weighted and true self-reported turnout in the 2008 municipal election and prevalences of entitlements to specially reimbursed medication, and the crude and weighted body mass index (BMI) means were compared. The IPW method appeared to remove a relatively large proportion of the bias compared to the crude prevalence estimates of the turnout and the entitlements to specially reimbursed medication. Several demographic factors were shown to be associated with missing data, but few interactions were found. Our results suggest that the IPW method can improve the accuracy of results of a population survey, and the model selection provides insight into the structure of missing data. However, health-related missing data mechanisms are beyond the scope of statistical methods, which mainly rely on socio-demographic information to correct the results.

Obesity Prevalence by Occupation in Washington State, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Lu, Dayu; Fan, Z. Joyce

2014-01-01

Introduction Data that estimate the prevalence of and risk factors for worker obesity by occupation are generally unavailable and could inform the prioritization of workplace wellness programs. The aims of this study were to estimate the prevalence of obesity by occupation, examine the association of occupational physical activity and a range of health behaviors with obesity, and identify occupations in which workers are at high risk of obesity in Washington State. Methods We conducted descriptive and multivariable analyses among 37,626 employed Washington State respondents using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in odd numbered years, from 2003 through 2009. We estimated prevalence and prevalence ratios (PRs) by occupational groups adjusting for demographics, occupational physical activity level, smoking, fruit and vegetable consumption, and leisure-time physical activity (LPTA). Results Overall obesity prevalence was 24.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 24.0–25.1). Workers in protective services were 2.46 (95% CI, 1.72–3.50) times as likely to be obese as workers in health diagnosing occupations. Compared with their counterparts, workers who consumed adequate amounts of fruits and vegetables and had adequate LTPA were significantly less likely to be obese (PR = 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86–0.97 and PR = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.60–0.67, respectively). Workers with physically demanding occupational physical activity had a lower PR of obesity (PR = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78–0.88) than those with nonphysically demanding occupational physical activity. Conclusion Obesity prevalence and health risk behaviors vary substantially by occupation. Employers, policy makers, and health promotion practitioners can use our results to target and prioritize workplace obesity prevention and health behavior promotion programs. PMID:24406093

Prevalence of overweight and obesity and some associated factors among adult residents of northeast China: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Wang, Rui; Zhang, Peng; Gao, Chunshi; Li, Zhijun; Lv, Xin; Song, Yuanyuan; Yu, Yaqin; Li, Bo

2016-07-25

This study aims to estimate the prevalence of overweight and obesity and determine potential influencing factors among adults in northeast China. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Jilin Province, northeast China, in 2012. A total of 9873 men and 10 966 women aged 18-79 years from the general population were included using a multistage stratified random cluster sampling design. Data were obtained from face-to-face interview and physical examination. After being weighted according to a complex sampling scheme, the sample was used to estimate the prevalence of overweight (body mass index (BMI) 24-27.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI >28 kg/m(2)) in Jilin Province, and analyse influencing factors through corresponding statistical methods based on complex sampling design behaviours. The overall prevalence of overweight was 32.3% (male 34.3%; female 30.2%), and the prevalence of obesity was 14.6% (male 16.3%; female 12.8%) in Jilin Province. The prevalence of both overweight and obesity were higher in men than women (p<0.001). Influencing factors included sex, age, marriage status, occupation, smoking, drinking, diet and hours of sleep (p<0.05). This study estimated that the prevalence of overweight and obesity among adult residents of Jilin Province, northeast China, were high. The results of this study will be submitted to the Health Department of Jilin Province and other relevant departments as a reference, which should inform policy makers in developing education and publicity to prevent and control the occurrence of overweight and obesity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Prevalence of Total Hip and Knee Replacement in the United States.

PubMed

Maradit Kremers, Hilal; Larson, Dirk R; Crowson, Cynthia S; Kremers, Walter K; Washington, Raynard E; Steiner, Claudia A; Jiranek, William A; Berry, Daniel J

2015-09-02

Descriptive epidemiology of total joint replacement procedures is limited to annual procedure volumes (incidence). The prevalence of the growing number of individuals living with a total hip or total knee replacement is currently unknown. Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the United States. Prevalence was estimated using the counting method by combining historical incidence data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases from 1969 to 2010 with general population census and mortality counts. We accounted for relative differences in mortality rates between those who have had total hip or knee replacement and the general population. The 2010 prevalence of total hip and total knee replacement in the total U.S. population was 0.83% and 1.52%, respectively. Prevalence was higher among women than among men and increased with age, reaching 5.26% for total hip replacement and 10.38% for total knee replacement at eighty years. These estimates corresponded to 2.5 million individuals (1.4 million women and 1.1 million men) with total hip replacement and 4.7 million individuals (3.0 million women and 1.7 million men) with total knee replacement in 2010. Secular trends indicated a substantial rise in prevalence over time and a shift to younger ages. Around 7 million Americans are living with a hip or knee replacement, and consequently, in most cases, are mobile, despite advanced arthritis. These numbers underscore the substantial public health impact of total hip and knee arthroplasties. Copyright © 2015 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in Mexico: Past, Current and Future Prevalence and Incidence Rates

PubMed Central

Meza, Rafael; Barrientos-Gutierrez, Tonatiuh; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Palacio-Mejia, Lina Sofia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio

2015-01-01

Introduction Mexico diabetes prevalence has increased dramatically in recent years. However, no national incidence estimates exist, hampering the assessment of diabetes trends and precluding the development of burden of disease analyses to inform public health policy decision-making. Here we provide evidence regarding current magnitude of diabetes in Mexico and its future trends. Methods We used data from the Mexico National Health and Nutrition Survey, and age-period-cohort models to estimate prevalence and incidence of self-reported diagnosed diabetes by age, sex, calendar-year (1960–2012), and birth-cohort (1920–1980). We project future rates under three alternative incidence scenarios using demographic projections of the Mexican population from 2010–2050 and a Multi-cohort Diabetes Markov Model. Results Adult (ages 20+) diagnosed diabetes prevalence in Mexico increased from 7% to 8.9% from 2006 to 2012. Diabetes prevalence increases with age, peaking around ages 65–68 to then decrease. Age-specific incidence follows similar patterns, but peaks around ages 57–59. We estimate that diagnosed diabetes incidence increased exponentially during 1960–2012, roughly doubling every 10 years. Projected rates under three age-specific incidence scenarios suggest diabetes prevalence among adults (ages 20+) may reach 13.7–22.5% by 2050, affecting 15–25 million individuals, with a lifetime risk of 1 in 3 to 1 in 2. Conclusions Diabetes prevalence in Mexico will continue to increase even if current incidence rates remain unchanged. Continued implementation of policies to reduce obesity rates, increase physical activity, and improve population diet, in tandem with diabetes surveillance and other risk control measures is paramount to substantially reduce the burden of diabetes in Mexico. PMID:26546108

Bias correction of nutritional status estimates when reported age is used for calculating WHO indicators in children under five years of age.

PubMed

Quezada, Amado D; García-Guerra, Armando; Escobar, Leticia

2016-06-01

To assess the performance of a simple correction method for nutritional status estimates in children under five years of age when exact age is not available from the data. The proposed method was based on the assumption of symmetry of age distributions within a given month of age and validated in a large population-based survey sample of Mexican preschool children. The main distributional assumption was consistent with the data. All prevalence estimates derived from the correction method showed no statistically significant bias. In contrast, failing to correct attained age resulted in an underestimation of stunting in general and an overestimation of overweight or obesity among the youngest. The proposed method performed remarkably well in terms of bias correction of estimates and could be easily applied in situations in which either birth or interview dates are not available from the data.

Sex differences in the association between countries' smoking prevalence and happiness ratings.

PubMed

Drehmer, J E

2018-05-02

To examine the cross-sectional relationship between measures of countries' happiness and countries' prevalence of tobacco smoking. Since smoking prevalence differs widely based on sex in some countries and is similar in other countries, it was examined if there was a sex difference in the relationship between smoking prevalence and country-specific happiness ratings. Ecological study design. Countries' age-standardized prevalence estimates of smoking any tobacco product among persons aged 15 years and older (%) for 2015 were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Health Observatory. Country-specific scores from the World Happiness Report 2016 Update Ranking of Happiness (2013-15) and the 2015 Gallup Positive Experience Index were matched and correlated to 2015 WHO estimates of tobacco smoking prevalence for males and females. The difference between male and female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in each country was calculated by subtracting female prevalence from male prevalence and was then correlated to countries' World Happiness Report scores. The analyses did not control for potential confounders. The association between male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was inversely correlated [r(104) = -0.22, P = 0.03], whereas the association between female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores was positively correlated [r(104) = 0.48, P = 0.00]. An inverse correlation was found between the difference in male and female smoking prevalence estimates and countries' World Happiness Report scores [r(104) = -0.50, P = 0.00]. The association between countries' male age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates and the Positive Experience Index scores was inversely correlated [r(99) = -0.37, P = 0.00], whereas the female age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates in countries were not significantly associated with Positive Experience Index scores [r(99) = -0.03, P = 0.75]. There are distinct sex differences between the amounts of happiness measured in countries and male and female smoking rates. Greater inequality in age-standardized smoking prevalence estimates between males and females is associated with lower amounts of happiness as measured by the World Happiness Report. These findings can be applied to population-based strategies aimed at reducing national smoking rates in men and women. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Agalychnis moreletii (Hylidae) of El Salvador and association with larval jaw sheath depigmentation.

PubMed

Lawson, Tyler D; Jones, Martin L; Komar, Oliver; Welch, Allison M

2011-07-01

Amphibian populations around the world have been declining at an alarming rate due to factors such as habitat destruction, pollution, and infectious diseases. Between May and July 2008, we investigated a fungal pathogen in the critically endangered Morelet's treefrog (Agalychnis moreletii) at sites in El Salvador. Larvae were screened with a hand lens for indications of infection with Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a fungus that can cause lethal chytridiomycosis in amphibians. Subsets of inspected tadpoles were preserved for analysis by polymerase chain reaction to determine the effectiveness of hand lens screening for presence of Bd and to estimate infection prevalence at various sites. Because individuals with signs of infection were preferentially included, we used a novel method to generate unbiased estimates of infection prevalence from these biased samples. External mouthpart deformities, identified with a hand lens, successfully predicted Bd infection across a large spatial scale. Two of 13 sites sampled had high (≥ 89%) estimated prevalence, whereas little or no Bd was detected at the remaining sites. Although it appears that A. moreletii populations in this region are not suffering rapid declines due to Bd, further monitoring is required to determine the extent to which these populations are stably coexisting with the pathogen.

Incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus among Arab and Chaldean Americans in southeastern Michigan: the Michigan Lupus Epidemiology and Surveillance Program.

PubMed

Housey, Michelle; DeGuire, Peter; Lyon-Callo, Sarah; Wang, Lu; Marder, Wendy; McCune, W Joseph; Helmick, Charles G; Gordon, Caroline; Dhar, J Patricia; Leisen, James; Somers, Emily C

2015-05-01

We assessed the burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) among Arab and Chaldean Americans residing in southeast Michigan. For those meeting SLE criteria from the Michigan Lupus Epidemiology and Surveillance Registry, we determined Arab or Chaldean ethnicity by links with demographic data from birth certificates and with a database of Arab and Chaldean names. We compared prevalence and incidence of SLE for Arab and Chaldean Americans with estimates for non-Arab and non-Chaldean American Whites and Blacks. We classified 54 individuals with SLE as Arab and Chaldean Americans. The age-adjusted incidence and prevalence estimates for Arab and Chaldean Americans were 7.6 and 62.6 per 100 000, respectively. Arab and Chaldean Americans had a 2.1-fold excess SLE incidence compared with non-Arab and non-Chaldean American Whites. Arab and Chaldean American women had both significantly higher incidence rates (5.0-fold increase) and prevalence estimates (7.4-fold increase) than did Arab and Chaldean American men. Recognizing that Arab and Chaldean Americans experience different disease burdens from Whites is a first step toward earlier diagnosis and designing targeted interventions. Better methods of assigning ethnicity would improve research in this population.

Violence and child mental health in Brazil: The Itaboraí Youth Study methods and findings.

PubMed

Bordin, I A; Duarte, C S; Ribeiro, W S; Paula, C S; Coutinho, E S F; Sourander, A; Rønning, J A

2018-06-01

To demonstrate a study design that could be useful in low-resource and violent urban settings and to estimate the prevalence of child violence exposure (at home, community, and school) and child mental health problems in a low-income medium-size city. The Itaboraí Youth Study is a Norway-Brazil collaborative longitudinal study conducted in Itaboraí city (n = 1409, 6-15 year olds). A 3-stage probabilistic sampling plan (random selection of census units, eligible households, and target child) generated sampling weights that were used to obtain estimates of population prevalence rates. Study strengths include previous pilot study and focus groups (testing procedures and comprehension of questionnaire items), longitudinal design (2 assessment periods with a mean interval of 12.9 months), high response rate (>80%), use of standardized instruments, different informants (mother and adolescent), face-to-face interviews to avoid errors due to the high frequency of low-educated respondents, and information gathered on a variety of potential predictors and protective factors. Children and adolescents presented relevant levels of violence exposure and clinical mental health problems. Prevalence estimates are probably valid to other Brazilian low-income medium-size cities due to similarities in terms of precarious living conditions. Described study methods could be useful in other poor and violent world regions. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Epidemiology of Hepatitis C Virus in the Maghreb Region: Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses

PubMed Central

Mumtaz, Ghina R.; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

2015-01-01

Objective To systematically review and synthesize available epidemiological data on hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb region and to estimate the country-specific population-level HCV prevalence. Methods We conducted a systematic review of HCV antibody prevalence and incidence in the Maghreb countries as outlined by the PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were conducted using DerSimonian-Laird random-effect models with inverse variance weighting to pool HCV prevalence estimates among general population groups. Results We identified 133 HCV prevalence measures and two HCV incidence measures. Among high risk groups, HCV prevalence ranged between 22% and 94% among people who inject drugs, 20% and 76% among dialysis patients, and 2% and 51% among hemophiliacs. Among intermediate-risk groups, considerable but widely variable HCV prevalence was found. Most common risk factors cited across studies were the duration of dialysis, number of transfusions, and having a history of surgery or dental work. The national HCV prevalence in Algeria was estimated at 0.3% (95%CI: 0.1–0.5), Libya 1.2% (95%CI: 1.1–1.3), Mauritania 1.1% (95%CI: 0–2.3), Morocco 0.8% (95%CI: 0.5–1.2), and Tunisia 0.6% (95%CI: 0.5–0.8). Conclusions HCV prevalence in the Maghreb region of the Middle East and North Africa is comparable to that in developed countries of about 1%. HCV exposures appear often to be linked to medical care and are suggestive of ongoing transmission in such settings. Injecting drug use appears also to be a major, though not dominant, contributor to HCV transmission. Further research is needed to draw a more thorough understanding of HCV epidemiology, especially in the countries with limited number of studies. HCV prevention policy and programming in these countries should focus on the settings of exposure. PMID:25803848

Prevalence and Incidence of Epilepsy Associated with Convulsive Seizures in Rural Bolivia. A Global Campaign against Epilepsy Project

PubMed Central

Crespo Gómes, Elizabeth Blanca; Sofia, Vito; Padilla, Sandra; Camargo, Mario; Zappia, Mario; Bartoloni, Alessandro; Nicoletti, Alessandra

2015-01-01

Objective we performed a three-stages door-to-door survey to estimate incidence and prevalence of epilepsy associated with convulsive seizures (EACS) in a rural area of Bolivia. Methods the study was carried out in the Cordillera Province, southern-eastern Bolivia. One hundred fourteen rural communities with a total population of 18,907 inhabitants were included in the survey. In order to identify subjects with EACS, trained fieldworkers administered a validated single screening question to the householders (stage I). A second face-to-face questionnaire was administered to each positive subject (stage II) that, in case of positive answer, underwent a complete neurological examination to confirm the diagnosis (stage III). We estimated age and sex specific life-time and active EACS prevalence at the prevalence day (30th June 2010). Incidence risk was evaluated for the 10-year period between January 2000 and December 2010. Results on prevalence day we identified 136 subjects with EACS, 124 of whom had active epilepsy. The life-time prevalence of EACS was 7.2/1,000 (7.6/1,000 age-adjusted to the world standard population) while the prevalence of active EACS was 6.6/1,000 (6.7/1,000 age-adjusted to the world standard population). Both life-time and active prevalence showed a peak (10.3/1,000) in the 15–24 years age group and, overall, were higher among women. During the incidence study period, 105 patients living in the study area had the onset of EACS. The crude incidence risk was 55.4/100,000 (49.5/100,000 age-adjusted to the world standard population). Incidence was slightly but not significantly higher among women (58.9/100,000 versus 51.9/100,000). Conclusions the present study demonstrated a considerable burden of EACS in the Bolivian Chaco, showing prevalence and incidence estimates close to those reported for low and middle- income countries and underlying the need of treatment programs. PMID:26427017

Mapping the Prevalence of Physical Inactivity in U.S. States, 1984-2015

PubMed Central

Xiang, Xiaoling; Yang, Yan; Yan, Hai

2016-01-01

Background Physical inactivity is a leading cause of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. This study aimed to map the prevalence of physical inactivity across U.S. states over the past three decades, and estimate the over-time adjusted changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity in each state. Methods Individual-level data (N = 6,701,954) were taken from the 1984–2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an annually repeated cross-sectional survey of state-representative adult population. Prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical inactivity was estimated by state and survey year, accounting for the BRFSS sampling design. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate the changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity over the study period for each state, adjusting for individual characteristics including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, and employment status. Results The prevalence of leisure-time physical inactivity varied substantially across states and survey years. In general, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity gradually declined over the past three decades in a majority of states. However, a substantial proportion of American adults remain physically inactive. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, 45 had over a fifth of their adult population without any leisure-time physical activity, and 8 had over 30% without physical activity in 2015. Moreover, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity in several states (Arizona, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) remained largely unchanged or even increased (Minnesota and Ohio) over the study period. Conclusions Although the prevalence of physical inactivity declined over the past three decades in a majority of states, the rates remain substantially high and vary considerably across states. Closely monitoring and tracking physical activity level using the state physical activity maps can help guide policy and program development to promote physical activity and reduce the burden of chronic disease. PMID:27959906

Spatial epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in Mexico.

PubMed

Martínez, Horacio Zendejas; Suazo, Feliciano Milián; Cuador Gil, José Quintín; Bello, Gustavo Cruz; Anaya Escalera, Ana María; Márquez, Gabriel Huitrón; Casanova, Leticia García

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use geographic information systems (GIS) and geo-statistical methods of ordinary kriging to predict the prevalence and distribution of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in Jalisco, Mexico. A random sample of 2 287 herds selected from a set of 48 766 was used for the analysis. Spatial location of herds was obtained by either a personal global positioning system (GPS), a database from the Instituto Nacional de Estadìstica Geografìa e Informàtica (INEGI) or Google Earth. Information on TB prevalence was provided by the Jalisco Commission for the Control and Eradication of Tuberculosis (COEETB). Prediction of TB was obtained using ordinary kriging in the geostatistical analyst module in ArcView8. A predicted high prevalence area of TB matching the distribution of dairy cattle was observed. This prediction was in agreement with the prevalence calculated on the total 48 766 herds. Validation was performed taking estimated values of TB prevalence at each municipality, extracted from the kriging surface and then compared with the real prevalence values using a correlation test, giving a value of 0.78, indicating that GIS and kriging are reliable tools for the estimation of TB distribution based on a random sample. This resulted in a significant savings of resources.

Chlamydia trachomatis infection among 15-35 year-olds in Baltimore, MD, USA

PubMed Central

Eggleston, Elizabeth; Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Miller, William C.; Roman, Anthony M; Hobbs, Marcia M.; Erbelding, Emily; Tan, Sylvia; Villarroel, Maria A.; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana

2011-01-01

Background Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most frequently reported infectious disease in the U.S. This article reports population and subpopulation prevalence estimates of Ct and correlates of infection among 15-35 year-olds in Baltimore, MD, USA. Methods The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP) monitored STI prevalence among probability samples of residents of Baltimore, a city with high STI rates. MSSP respondents completed telephone audio computer-assisted self-interviews and provided biospecimens for STI testing. Results Among 2120 Baltimore residents aged 15 to 35 years, the estimated prevalence of chlamydia was 3.9% (95% Cl: 2.8, 5.0). Prevalence was 5.8% (95% Cl: 4.1, 7.6) among black MSSP respondents versus 0.7% (95% Cl: 0.0, 1.4) among nonblack respondents; all but four infections detected were among black respondents. Sexual behaviors and other factors associated with infection were far more prevalent among black than nonblack Baltimore residents. Racial disparities persisted after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral and health factors. Conclusion The MSSP highlights a higher Ct prevalence among young people in Baltimore than in the U.S. overall, with notable racial disparities in infection and associated risk behaviors. Public health efforts are needed to improve the diagnosis and treatment of asymptomatic infections in this population. PMID:21844726

Dietary Protein Intake in Young Children in Selected Low-Income Countries Is Generally Adequate in Relation to Estimated Requirements for Healthy Children, Except When Complementary Food Intake Is Low.

PubMed

Arsenault, Joanne E; Brown, Kenneth H

2017-05-01

Background: Previous research indicates that young children in low-income countries (LICs) generally consume greater amounts of protein than published estimates of protein requirements, but this research did not account for protein quality based on the mix of amino acids and the digestibility of ingested protein. Objective: Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake by young children in LICs, accounting for protein quality. Methods: Seven data sets with information on dietary intake for children (6-35 mo of age) from 6 LICs (Peru, Guatemala, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Zambia) were reanalyzed to estimate protein and amino acid intake and assess adequacy. The protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score of each child's diet was calculated and multiplied by the original (crude) protein intake to obtain an estimate of available protein intake. Distributions of usual intake were obtained to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake for each cohort according to Estimated Average Requirements. Results: The prevalence of inadequate protein intake was highest in breastfeeding children aged 6-8 mo: 24% of Bangladeshi and 16% of Peruvian children. With the exception of Bangladesh, the prevalence of inadequate available protein intake decreased by age 9-12 mo and was very low in all sites (0-2%) after 12 mo of age. Inadequate protein intake in children <12 mo of age was due primarily to low energy intake from complementary foods, not inadequate protein density. Conclusions: Overall, most children consumed protein amounts greater than requirements, except for the younger breastfeeding children, who were consuming low amounts of complementary foods. These findings reinforce previous evidence that dietary protein is not generally limiting for children in LICs compared with estimated requirements for healthy children, even after accounting for protein quality. However, unmeasured effects of infection and intestinal dysfunction on the children's protein requirements could modify this conclusion.

Estimates of cancer burden in Tuscany.

PubMed

Ventura, Leonardo; Miccinesi, Guido; Buzzoni, Carlotta; Crocetti, Emanuele; Paci, Eugenio; Foschi, Roberto; Rossi, Silvia

2013-01-01

The Tuscan cancer registry has been operating since 1985, providing cancer incidence and survival data in Tuscany; it covers about 33% of the regional population. The purpose of this paper is to provide incidence, prevalence and mortality estimates for the major cancers in the whole Tuscany region for the period 1970-2015. The estimated figures were obtained by applying the MIAMOD method. Starting from mortality and survival data, incidence and prevalence were derived using a statistical back-calculation approach. Survival was modeled on the basis of published data from the Italian cancer registries. According to the estimates, the most frequent cancer sites were colon-rectum in both genders, prostate in men and breast in women, with 4,188, 3,082 and 3,092 new diagnoses, respectively, in 2012. The incidence rates were steadily increasing for lung cancer in women and melanoma in both sexes, while they were decreasing for uterine cervix cancer in women, lung cancer in men and stomach cancer in both sexes. For colorectal cancer a small reduction in incidence was estimated for both sexes in recent years. The incidence rates for prostate cancer, after a steep increase and subsequent stabilization, were estimated to increase slightly in the last years. The breast cancer incidence was estimated to stabilize in the last 10 years. The mortality trends were decreasing for all considered cancers except female lung cancer. Prevalence increased for most of the studied cancers except stomach cancer in both sexes, lung cancer in men and cervix cancer in women. The highest prevalence was estimated for breast cancer, with over 42,000 cases in 2012. This paper provides an updated description of the cancer burden in Tuscany until 2015. These trends will have a significant impact on the regional health services and it is therefore important to enhance both primary prevention, for reducing the cancer incidence, and oncological surveillance, for evaluating the care and assistance of cancer patients.

Using the international classification of functioning, disability and health to expand understanding of paralysis in the United States through improved surveillance.

PubMed

Fox, Michael H; Krahn, Gloria L; Sinclair, Lisa B; Cahill, Anthony

2015-07-01

Surveillance on paralysis prevalence has been conceptually and methodologically challenging. Numerous methods have been used to approximate population-level paralysis prevalence estimates leading to widely divergent prevalence estimates. To describe three phases in use of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) as a framework and planning tool for defining paralysis and developing public health surveillance of this condition. Description of the surveillance methodology covers four steps: an assessment of prior data collection efforts that included a review of existing surveys, registries and other data collection efforts designed to capture both case definitions in use and prevalence of paralysis; use of a consensus conference of experts to develop a case definition of paralysis based on the ICF rather than medical diagnostic criteria; explanation of use of the ICF framework for domains of interest to develop, cognitively test, validate and administer a brief self-report questionnaire for telephone administration on a population; and development and administration of a Paralysis Prevalence and Health Disparities Survey that used content mapping to back code items from existing national surveys to operationalize key domains. ICF coding led to a national population-based survey of paralysis that produced accurate estimates of prevalence and identification of factors related to the health of people in the U.S. living with paralysis. The ICF can be a useful tool for developing valid and reliable surveillance strategies targeting subgroups of individuals with functional disabilities such as people with paralysis and others. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Door-to-door capture of incident and prevalent stroke cases in Durango, Mexico – the Brain Attack Surveillance in Durango (BASID) Study

PubMed Central

Cantu-Brito, Carlos; Majersik, Jennifer J; Sánchez, Brisa N; Ruano, Angel; Becerra-Mendoza, Daniela; Wing, Jeffrey J; Morgenstern, Lewis B

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose Stroke incidence and prevalence estimates in developing countries should include stroke cases not presenting to hospital. We performed door-to-door stroke case ascertainment in Durango Municipality, Mexico to estimate stroke incidence and prevalence, and to determine the error made by only ascertaining hospital cases. Methods Between September 2008 and March 2009, 1996 housing units were randomly sampled to screen for stroke in Durango Municipality residents ≥35 years of age. Field workers utilized a validated screening tool. Those screening positive were referred to a neurologist for history and examination and if confirmed, a head CT scan. Prevalence and cumulative incidence from the door-to-door surveillance were calculated and compared with previously reported hospitalization rates during the same defined time. Results Respondents included 2437 subjects from 1419 homes. The refusal rate was 3.8%. Twenty subjects had verified or probable stroke. The prevalence of probable or verified stroke was 7.7/1000 (95% CI: 4.3/1000, 11.2/1000). Five patients had a stroke during the time of the hospital surveillance, yielding a cumulative incidence of 232.3/100,000 (95% CI: 27.8, 436.9). Two of the 5 cases were captured by door-to-door surveillance but not by hospital surveillance. Conclusions This study provides the first community-based stroke prevalence and incidence estimates in Mexico. The wide confidence intervals, despite the large number of surveyed housing units, suggest the need for more advanced sampling strategies for stroke surveillance in the developing world. PMID:21212398

Epidemiology of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Caminati, Antonella; Conti, Sara; Cesana, Giancarlo

2016-01-01

Background Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most common and severe form of idiopathic interstitial pneumonia. Despite its clinical relevance, few studies have examined the epidemiology of IPF and temporal variation in disease incidence and prevalence. Aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence, incidence and trends of IPF in Lombardy, a region with nearly 10 million inhabitants, during 2005–2010. Methods For the identification of IPF patients, we used healthcare administrative databases of Lombardy Healthcare System and adopted three algorithms: generic, broad and narrow case definition (GCD, BCD, NCD). IPF cases were identified according to diagnoses reported in inpatient and outpatient claims occurred during 2000–2010. We estimated age- and sex-adjusted annual prevalence and incidence rates from 2005 to 2010, thus allowing for a 5-year washout period. Results The mean annual incidence rate was estimated at 2.3 and 5.3 per 100,000 person-years using NCD and GCD, respectively. IPF incidence was higher among males, and increased with age. Trend remained stable over the years. The estimated annual prevalence rate was 35.5, 22.4, and 12.6 per 100,000 person-years using GCD, BCD and NCD, respectively, and increased with age. Moreover, we observed a positive trend over the years. Using BCD and NCD, prevalence was higher among males. Conclusions The results of this study, which is one of the largest population-based survey ever conducted according to strict criteria, indicated that prevalence of IPF increased across the years while incidence remained stable, thus suggesting that survival with IPF has improved. PMID:26841042

Effects of Reducing the Frequency and Duration Criteria for Binge Eating on Lifetime Prevalence of Bulimia Nervosa and Binge Eating Disorder: Implications for DSM-5

PubMed Central

Trace, Sara E.; Thornton, Laura M.; Root, Tammy L.; Mazzeo, Suzanne E.; Lichtenstein, Paul; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

2011-01-01

Objective We assessed the impact of reducing the binge eating frequency and duration thresholds on the diagnostic criteria for bulimia nervosa (BN) and binge eating disorder (BED). Method We estimated the lifetime population prevalence of BN and BED in 13,295 female twins from the Swedish Twin study of Adults: Genes and Environment employing a range of frequency and duration thresholds. External validation (risk to co-twin) was used to investigate empirical evidence for an optimal binge eating frequency threshold. Results The lifetime prevalence estimates of BN and BED increased linearly as the frequency criterion decreased. As the required duration increased, the prevalence of BED decreased slightly. Discontinuity in co-twin risk was observed in BN between at least four times per month and at least five times per month. This model could not be fit for BED. Discussion The proposed changes to the DSM-5 binge eating frequency and duration criteria would allow for better detection of binge eating pathology without resulting in a markedly higher lifetime prevalence of BN or BED. PMID:21882218

Calculation of prevalence estimates through differential equations: application to stroke-related disability.

PubMed

Mar, Javier; Sainz-Ezkerra, María; Moler-Cuiral, Jose Antonio

2008-01-01

Neurological diseases now make up 6.3% of the global burden of disease mainly because they cause disability. To assess disability, prevalence estimates are needed. The objective of this study is to apply a method based on differential equations to calculate the prevalence of stroke-related disability. On the basis of a flow diagram, a set of differential equations for each age group was constructed. The linear system was solved analytically and numerically. The parameters of the system were obtained from the literature. The model was validated and calibrated by comparison with previous results. The stroke prevalence rate per 100,000 men was 828, and the rate for stroke-related disability was 331. The rates steadily rose with age, but the group between the ages of 65 and 74 years had the highest total number of individuals. Differential equations are useful to represent the natural history of neurological diseases and to make possible the calculation of the prevalence for the various states of disability. In our experience, when compared with the results obtained by Markov models, the benefit of the continuous use of time outweighs the mathematical requirements of our model. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Prevalence of Depression among Infertile Couples in Iran: A Meta-Analysis Study

PubMed Central

MASOUMI, Seyyedeh Zahra; POOROLAJAL, Jalal; KERAMAT, Afsaneh; MOOSAVI, Seyyed Abbas

2013-01-01

Background Several studies have been conducted in Iran in order to investigate the prevalence of depression among infertile couples. However, there is a remarkable diversity among the results. This meta-analysis was conducted to estimate an overall prevalence rate of depression among infertile couples in Iran. Methods: International and national electronic databases were searched up to June 2011 including MEDLINE, Science Citation Index Expanded, Scopus, SID, MagIran, and IranMedex as well as conference databases. Furthermore, reference lists of articles were screened and the studies’ authors were contacted for additional references. Cross-sectional studies addressing the prevalence of depression among infertile couples were included in this meta-analysis. We assessed 12 separate studies involving overall 2818 participants of which 1251 had depression. Results: Overall prevalence rate of depression among infertile couples was 0.47 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.55). The prevalence rate of depression was 0.44 (95% CI: 0.32, 0.56) during 2000 to 2005 and 0.50 (95% CI: 0.43, 0.57 during 2006 to 2011. The prevalence rate of depression was 0.46 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.53) among women and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.40, 0.54) among men. Conclusion: Not only the prevalence of depression in infertile couples was high but also had increasing growth in recent years. Furthermore, despite many studies conducted addressing the prevalence of depression in infertile couples, there is however a remarkable diversity between the results. Thus, one can hardly give a precise estimation of the prevalence rate of depression among infertile couples in Iran now. PMID:23802102

Evaluating direct medical expenditures estimation methods of adults using the medical expenditure panel survey: an example focusing on head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Coughlan, Diarmuid; Yeh, Susan T; O'Neill, Ciaran; Frick, Kevin D

2014-01-01

To inform policymakers of the importance of evaluating various methods for estimating the direct medical expenditures for a low-incidence condition, head and neck cancer (HNC). Four methods of estimation have been identified: 1) summing all health care expenditures, 2) estimating disease-specific expenditures consistent with an attribution approach, 3) estimating disease-specific expenditures by matching, and 4) estimating disease-specific expenditures by using a regression-based approach. A literature review of studies (2005-2012) that used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) was undertaken to establish the most popular expenditure estimation methods. These methods were then applied to a sample of 120 respondents with HNC, derived from pooled data (2003-2008). The literature review shows that varying expenditure estimation methods have been used with MEPS but no study compared and contrasted all four methods. Our estimates are reflective of the national treated prevalence of HNC. The upper-bound estimate of annual direct medical expenditures of adult respondents with HNC between 2003 and 2008 was $3.18 billion (in 2008 dollars). Comparable estimates arising from methods focusing on disease-specific and incremental expenditures were all lower in magnitude. Attribution yielded annual expenditures of $1.41 billion, matching method of $1.56 billion, and regression method of $1.09 billion. This research demonstrates that variation exists across and within expenditure estimation methods applied to MEPS data. Despite concerns regarding aspects of reliability and consistency, reporting a combination of the four methods offers a degree of transparency and validity to estimating the likely range of annual direct medical expenditures of a condition. © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Published by International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) All rights reserved.

Prevalence estimates for primary brain tumors in the United States by age, gender, behavior, and histology.

PubMed

Porter, Kimberly R; McCarthy, Bridget J; Freels, Sally; Kim, Yoonsang; Davis, Faith G

2010-06-01

Prevalence is the best indicator of cancer survivorship in the population, but few studies have focused on brain tumor prevalence because of previous data limitations. Hence, the full impact of primary brain tumors on the healthcare system in the United States is not completely described. The present study provides an estimate of the prevalence of disease in the United States, updating an earlier prevalence study. Incidence data for 2004 and survival data for 1985-2005 were obtained by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States from selected regions, modeled under 2 different survival assumptions, to estimate prevalence rates for the year 2004 and projected estimates for 2010. The overall incidence rate for primary brain tumors was 18.1 per 100 000 person-years with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year observed survival rates of 62%, 54%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. On the basis of the sum of nonmalignant and averaged malignant estimates, the overall prevalence rate of individuals with a brain tumor was estimated to be 209.0 per 100 000 in 2004 and 221.8 per 100 000 in 2010. The female prevalence rate (264.8 per 100 000) was higher than that in males (158.7 per 100 000). The averaged prevalence rate for malignant tumors (42.5 per 100 000) was lower than the prevalence for nonmalignant tumors (166.5 per 100 000). This study provides estimates of the 2004 (n = 612 770) and 2010 (n = 688 096) expected number of individuals living with primary brain tumor diagnoses in the United States, providing more current and robust estimates for aiding healthcare planning and patient advocacy for an aging US population.

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods

PubMed Central

Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2014-01-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture–recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture–recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998–3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916–2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture–recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture–recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. PMID:25336306

Estimation of the size of the female sex worker population in Rwanda using three different methods.

PubMed

Mutagoma, Mwumvaneza; Kayitesi, Catherine; Gwiza, Aimé; Ruton, Hinda; Koleros, Andrew; Gupta, Neil; Balisanga, Helene; Riedel, David J; Nsanzimana, Sabin

2015-10-01

HIV prevalence is disproportionately high among female sex workers compared to the general population. Many African countries lack useful data on the size of female sex worker populations to inform national HIV programmes. A female sex worker size estimation exercise using three different venue-based methodologies was conducted among female sex workers in all provinces of Rwanda in August 2010. The female sex worker national population size was estimated using capture-recapture and enumeration methods, and the multiplier method was used to estimate the size of the female sex worker population in Kigali. A structured questionnaire was also used to supplement the data. The estimated number of female sex workers by the capture-recapture method was 3205 (95% confidence interval: 2998-3412). The female sex worker size was estimated at 3348 using the enumeration method. In Kigali, the female sex worker size was estimated at 2253 (95% confidence interval: 1916-2524) using the multiplier method. Nearly 80% of all female sex workers in Rwanda were found to be based in the capital, Kigali. This study provided a first-time estimate of the female sex worker population size in Rwanda using capture-recapture, enumeration, and multiplier methods. The capture-recapture and enumeration methods provided similar estimates of female sex worker in Rwanda. Combination of such size estimation methods is feasible and productive in low-resource settings and should be considered vital to inform national HIV programmes. © The Author(s) 2015.

Hemoglobin measured by Hemocue and a reference method in venous and capillary blood: a validation study.

PubMed

Neufeld, Lynnette; García-Guerra, Armando; Sánchez-Francia, Domingo; Newton-Sánchez, Oscar; Ramírez-Villalobos, María Dolores; Rivera-Dommarco, Juan

2002-01-01

To assess the comparability of hemoglobin concentration (Hb) in venous and capillary blood measured by Hemocue and an automated spectrophotometer (Celldyn) and to document the influence of type of blood (capillary or venous) and analysis method on anemia prevalence estimates. Between February and May 2000, capillary and venous samples were collected from 72 adults and children at Hospital del Niño Morelense (Morelos State Children's Hospital) in Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico, and assessed for Hb using the Hemocue and Celldyn methods. Estimated Hb levels were compared using the concordance correlation coefficient and Student's t test for paired data. The sensitivity and specificity for anemia diagnosis were estimated and compared between type of blood and method of assessment. Capillary blood had higher Hb (+0.5 g/dl) than venous blood in adults and children, as did samples assessed by Celldyn compared to Hemocue (+0.3 g/dl). Specificity to detect anemia was adequate (> 0.90) but sensitivity was low for capillary blood assessed by Hemocue (< 0.80). The difference in Hb between venous and capillary blood is likely related to biological variability. Hemoglobin concentration in capillary blood assessed by Hemocue provides an adequate estimation of population anemia prevalence but may result in excess false negative diagnoses among individuals. The results of this study stress the importance of sample collection technique, particularly for children. Method of analysis and sampling site need to be taken into consideration in field studies. The English version of this paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html.

Who pays and who benefits? How different models of shared responsibilities between formal and informal carers influence projections of costs of dementia management

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The few studies that have attempted to estimate the future cost of caring for people with dementia in Australia are typically based on total prevalence and the cost per patient over the average duration of illness. However, costs associated with dementia care also vary according to the length of the disease, severity of symptoms and type of care provided. This study aimed to determine more accurately the future costs of dementia management by taking these factors into consideration. Methods The current study estimated the prevalence of dementia in Australia (2010-2040). Data from a variety of sources was recalculated to distribute this prevalence according to the location (home/institution), care requirements (informal/formal), and dementia severity. The cost of care was attributed to redistributed prevalences and used in prediction of future costs of dementia. Results Our computer modeling indicates that the ratio between the prevalence of people with mild/moderate/severe dementia will change over the three decades from 2010 to 2040 from 50/30/20 to 44/32/24. Taking into account the severity of symptoms, location of care and cost of care per hour, the current study estimates that the informal cost of care in 2010 is AU$3.2 billion and formal care at AU$5.0 billion per annum. By 2040 informal care is estimated to cost AU$11.6 billion and formal care $AU16.7 billion per annum. Interventions to slow disease progression will result in relative savings of 5% (AU$1.5 billion) per annum and interventions to delay disease onset will result in relative savings of 14% (AU$4 billion) of the cost per annum. With no intervention, the projected combined annual cost of formal and informal care for a person with dementia in 2040 will be around AU$38,000 (in 2010 dollars). An intervention to delay progression by 2 years will see this reduced to AU$35,000. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to account for more than total prevalence when estimating the costs of dementia care. While the absolute values of cost of care estimates are subject to the validity and reliability of currently available data, dynamic systems modeling allows for future trends to be estimated. PMID:21988908

The prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in Australia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Chlamydia trachomatis is a common sexually transmitted infection in Australia. This report aims to measure the burden of chlamydia infection by systematically reviewing reports on prevalence in Australian populations. Methods Electronic databases and conference websites were searched from 1997–2011 using the terms ‘Chlamydia trachomatis’ OR ‘chlamydia’ AND ‘prevalence’ OR ‘epidemiology’ AND ‘Australia’. Reference lists were checked and researchers contacted for additional literature. Studies were categorised by setting and participants, and meta-analysis conducted to determine pooled prevalence estimates for each category. Results Seventy-six studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. There was a high level of heterogeneity between studies; however, there was a trend towards higher chlamydia prevalence in younger populations, Indigenous Australians, and those attending sexual health centres. In community or general practice settings, pooled prevalence for women <25 years in studies conducted post-2005 was 5.0% (95% CI: 3.1, 6.9; five studies), and for men <30 years over the entire review period was 3.9% (95% CI: 2.7, 5.1; six studies). For young Australians aged <25 years attending sexual health, family planning or youth clinics, estimated prevalence was 6.2% (95% CI: 5.1, 7.4; 10 studies) for women and 10.2% (95% CI: 9.5, 10.9; five studies) for men. Other key findings include pooled prevalence estimates of 22.1% (95% CI: 19.0, 25.3; three studies) for Indigenous women <25 years, 14.6% (95% CI: 11.5, 17.8; three studies) for Indigenous men <25 years, and 5.6% (95% CI: 4.8, 6.3; 11 studies) for rectal infection in men who have sex with men. Several studies failed to report basic demographic details such as sex and age, and were therefore excluded from the analysis. Conclusions Chlamydia trachomatis infections are a significant health burden in Australia; however, accurate estimation of chlamydia prevalence in Australian sub-populations is limited by heterogeneity within surveyed populations, and variations in sampling methodologies and data reporting. There is a need for more large, population-based studies and prospective cohort studies to compliment mandatory notification data. PMID:22583480

Capture-recapture analysis of East Coast fever in smallholder dairy herds in the Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania.

PubMed

Kivaria, F M; Noordhuizen, J P T M

2010-05-01

The prevalence of and case fatality rate due to East Coast fever (ECF) were estimated in 1402 dairy cattle in 87 small herds in the Dar es Salaam region of Tanzania, from January 2003 to January 2005 using a capture-recapture method. Information on clinical cases and deaths due to ECF were obtained from farm records and from a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey conducted between July 2003 and March 2005 as part of longitudinal studies of bovine mastitis in these herds. The number of clinical cases identified was 567 (from farm records) and 496 (from the questionnaire), and the number of deaths recorded were 305 (from farm records) and 251 (from the questionnaire). In all, 450 clinical cases and 191 deaths due to ECF were identified from the two sources, giving an observed prevalence of 32% (CI(95%) 30-35%) and observed case fatality rate of 42% (CI(95%) 38-47%). Following application of the capture-recapture method, the estimated number of clinical cases and deaths was 625 (CI(95%) 617-633) and 401 (CI(95%) 384-418), respectively. The respective prevalence and case fatality rates were 45% (CI(95%) 41-48%) and 64% (CI(95%) 60-68%). The estimates obtained using the capture-recapture method are higher than those identified by traditional cross-sectional studies conducted in the same study area, and probably provide a more accurate epidemiological picture of ECF in this region of Tanzania. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anabolic Androgenic Steroids—Use and Correlates among Gym Users—An Assessment Study Using Questionnaires and Observations at Gyms in the Stockholm Region

PubMed Central

Leifman, Håkan; Rehnman, Charlotta; Sjöblom, Erika; Holgersson, Stefan

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of anabolic androgenic steroid (AAS) use and offers to use among gym users in Stockholm County (Sweden), and to conduct a comparison of concordance in estimates of AAS and supplements at gyms between two data collection methods. A questionnaire was distributed to members at 36 training facilities and 1,752 gym users participated in the study. An observation study was conducted as covert participant observations at 64 gyms. According to the questionnaire, 3.9% of men reported life time use of AAS, 1.4% use during the past 12 months and 0.4% AAS use during past 30 days. Not only were there similar patterns found in the two methods, i.e., similar age and gender distributions for AAS use, but analyses of concordance showed that gyms with a higher prevalence of self-reported AAS-use and supplement use (questionnaire) showed a significantly higher proportion of observer-assessed AAS users. Analyses of individual predictors showed that AAS users were almost always young men, regular weight trainers and more often users of drugs and nutritional supplements. The higher prevalence of AAS use among gym users than in the general population makes the former an appropriate target group for AAS prevention. The connection between supplements, drugs and AAS use suggests that effective AAS prevention need to focus on several risk factors for AAS use. The clear resemblance in estimates between the observation and questionnaire data strengthen the credibility of the two methods. PMID:21845151

Anabolic androgenic steroids--use and correlates among gym users--an assessment study using questionnaires and observations at gyms in the Stockholm region.

PubMed

Leifman, Håkan; Rehnman, Charlotta; Sjöblom, Erika; Holgersson, Stefan

2011-07-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of anabolic androgenic steroid (AAS) use and offers to use among gym users in Stockholm County (Sweden), and to conduct a comparison of concordance in estimates of AAS and supplements at gyms between two data collection methods. A questionnaire was distributed to members at 36 training facilities and 1,752 gym users participated in the study. An observation study was conducted as covert participant observations at 64 gyms. According to the questionnaire, 3.9% of men reported life time use of AAS, 1.4% use during the past 12 months and 0.4% AAS use during past 30 days. Not only were there similar patterns found in the two methods, i.e., similar age and gender distributions for AAS use, but analyses of concordance showed that gyms with a higher prevalence of self-reported AAS-use and supplement use (questionnaire) showed a significantly higher proportion of observer-assessed AAS users. Analyses of individual predictors showed that AAS users were almost always young men, regular weight trainers and more often users of drugs and nutritional supplements. The higher prevalence of AAS use among gym users than in the general population makes the former an appropriate target group for AAS prevention. The connection between supplements, drugs and AAS use suggests that effective AAS prevention need to focus on several risk factors for AAS use. The clear resemblance in estimates between the observation and questionnaire data strengthen the credibility of the two methods.

CAREX Canada: an enhanced model for assessing occupational carcinogen exposure

PubMed Central

Peters, Cheryl E; Ge, Calvin B; Hall, Amy L; Davies, Hugh W; Demers, Paul A

2015-01-01

Objectives To estimate the numbers of workers exposed to known and suspected occupational carcinogens in Canada, building on the methods of CARcinogen EXposure (CAREX) projects in the European Union (EU). Methods CAREX Canada consists of estimates of the prevalence and level of exposure to occupational carcinogens. CAREX Canada includes occupational agents evaluated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as known, probable or possible human carcinogens that were present and feasible to assess in Canadian workplaces. A Canadian Workplace Exposure Database was established to identify the potential for exposure in particular industries and occupations, and to create exposure level estimates among priority agents, where possible. CAREX EU data were reviewed for relevance to the Canadian context and the proportion of workers likely to be exposed by industry and occupation in Canada was assigned using expert assessment and agreement by a minimum of two occupational hygienists. These proportions were used to generate prevalence estimates by linkage with the Census of Population for 2006, and these estimates are available by industry, occupation, sex and province. Results CAREX Canada estimated the number of workers exposed to 44 known, probable and suspected carcinogens. Estimates of levels of exposure were further developed for 18 priority agents. Common exposures included night shift work (1.9 million exposed), solar ultraviolet radiation exposure (1.5 million exposed) and diesel engine exhaust (781 000 exposed). Conclusions A substantial proportion of Canadian workers are exposed to known and suspected carcinogens at work. PMID:24969047

Prevalence of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Eastern and Southeastern Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Binns, Colin W.; Duong, Dat Van; Lee, Andy H.

2018-01-01

Aim To review the prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Methods We systematically searched for observational studies on GDM prevalence from January 2000 to December 2016. Inclusion criteria were original English papers, with full texts published in peer-reviewed journals. The quality of included studies was evaluated using the guidelines of the National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia. Fixed effects and random effects models were used to estimate the summary prevalence of GDM and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results A total of 4415 papers were screened, and 48 studies with 63 GDM prevalence observations were included in the final review. The pooled prevalence of GDM was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.5%–15.7%), despite substantial variations across nations. The prevalence of GDM in lower- or upper-middle income countries was about 64% higher than in their high-income counterparts. Moreover, the one-step screening method was twice more likely to be used in diagnosing GDM when compared to the two-step screening procedure. Conclusions The prevalence of GDM in Eastern and Southeastern Asia was high and varied among and within countries. There is a need for international uniformity in screening strategies and diagnostic criteria for GDM. PMID:29675432

Prevalence of lifetime abortion and methods of contraception among female sex workers in Bogota, Colombia.

PubMed

Bautista, Christian T; Mejía, Alfredo; Leal, Luis; Ayala, Claudia; Sanchez, Jose L; Montano, Silvia M

2008-03-01

The primary objective was to estimate the lifetime prevalence of abortion and the secondary objective was to describe the use of contraceptive methods among female sex workers (FSW) in Bogota, Colombia. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among FSW. Information on sociodemographic characteristics, contraceptive methods, number of abortions, reasons for abortions and sexual practices was collected. A total of 514 FSW were enrolled. Of these, 264 (53%) had a lifetime abortion. Age, years in sex work and a previous sexually transmitted infection were associated with abortion. A total of 89 FSW(17%) reported no contraception method. Oral contraceptives, use of condoms, female sterilization and intrauterine device insertion were the most common methods of contraception. Women who were poorer, who initiated sex work at a younger age and who reported use of illegal drugs were associated with inconsistent contraception. A high lifetime prevalence of abortion and inconsistent contraception was found among FSW in Bogota. There is a need for effective and practical contraceptive methods of family health planning among FSW in Colombia.

The epidemiology of viral hepatitis among people who inject drugs: Results of global systematic reviews

PubMed Central

Nelson, Paul; Mathers, Bradley; Cowie, Benjamin; Hagan, Holly; Jarlais, Don Des; Horyniak, Danielle; Degenhardt, Louisa

2011-01-01

Background Injecting drug use (IDU) is an important risk for viral hepatitis transmission. Detailed, transparent estimates of the scale of the problem at regional and global levels have never been made. We report national, regional and global prevalence and population size estimates for hepatitis C (HCV) and hepatitis B (HBV) among people who inject drugs. Methods Systematic search of peer-reviewed (Medline/Embase/PsycINFO) and grey literature databases, conference abstracts and online resources, with a widely distributed call for additional data. From 4386 peer-reviewed and 1019 grey literature sources, 1125 were reviewed in full. Studies were extracted to a customised database and graded according their methods. Serological reports of HCV antibodies/anti-HCV, HBV antibodies/anti-HBc, and/or HBV surface antigen/HBsAg among IDUs samples with n>40 participants, <100% HIV-positive, and sampling frames that did not exclude participants on the basis of age or sex were included. Using endorsed decision rules, prevalence estimates were calculated with anti-HCV and anti-HBV as proxies for exposure and HBsAg for current infection. These were combined with IDU population sizes to estimate the number of HBV and HCV positive IDUs. Findings Eligible reports of anti-HCV among IDUs were located for 77 countries. Prevalence was 60–80% in 26 countries and >80% in 12. We estimate worldwide about 10.0 million (range 6.0–15.2M) IDUs might be anti-HCV positive. China, (1.6M), the USA (1.5M) and the Russian Federation (1.3M) had by far the largest such populations. HBsAg reports were found for 59 countries, ranging from 5–10% in 21 countries and over 10% in 10. Worldwide, 6.4 million IDU might be anti-HBc positive (2.3–9.7M), and 1.2 million (0.3–2.7M) HBsAg positive. Interpretation The prevalence of anti-HCV among IDUs is far greater than HIV. Viral hepatitis clearly poses a challenge to public health. Variation in the coverage and quality of existing research creates uncertainty around estimates. Better and more complete data and reporting are required to estimate the scale of the problem, to inform efforts to prevent and treat HCV and HBV among IDUs. PMID:21802134

Subclinical versus overt obesity in dialysis patients: more than meets the eye.

PubMed

Gracia-Iguacel, Carolina; Qureshi, Abdul Rashid; Avesani, Carla Maria; Heimbürger, Olof; Huang, Xiaoyan; Lindholm, Bengt; Bárány, Peter; Ortiz, Alberto; Stenvinkel, Peter; Carrero, Juan Jesús

2013-11-01

Obesity is an important problem in the epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Obesity is usually diagnosed by body mass index (BMI), but this metric has limitations as a measure of adiposity in CKD patients. Simple anthropometric tools, like skinfold thickness measurements, have been shown to be a better test to classify obesity among those with CKD. The prevalence of obesity was estimated by BMI (>30 kg/m(2)) and by skinfold thickness-estimated body fat (>25% in men and 35% in women) in two cohorts comprising 284 incident dialysis and 209 prevalent haemodialysis (HD) patients from Sweden. Patient characteristics were compared among individuals with differing diagnosis. BMI obesity cut-offs misdiagnosed many patients (>50%) with excess adiposity. Obesity, estimated by BMI, was present in 9 and 10% of incident and prevalent dialysis patients, respectively. When estimated by percentage of body fat, the prevalence of obesity rose to 64 and 65%. In both cohorts, a large proportion of patients (55%) were obese in the context of a normal BMI (termed as subclinical obesity). These individuals were older, presented more co-morbidity and lower surrogates of muscle mass [handgrip strength, arm muscle circumference or insulin-growth factor (IGF)-1 levels] than those diagnosed by both methods (termed overt obesity). A BMI of <30 kg/m(2) does not exclude the presence of excess adiposity. Subclinical obesity is a frequent condition in dialysis patients, and the clinical consequences of this finding deserve further consideration.

Comparison of 10 single and stepped methods to identify frail older persons in primary care: diagnostic and prognostic accuracy.

PubMed

Sutorius, Fleur L; Hoogendijk, Emiel O; Prins, Bernard A H; van Hout, Hein P J

2016-08-03

Many instruments have been developed to identify frail older adults in primary care. A direct comparison of the accuracy and prevalence of identification methods is rare and most studies ignore the stepped selection typically employed in routine care practice. Also it is unclear whether the various methods select persons with different characteristics. We aimed to estimate the accuracy of 10 single and stepped methods to identify frailty in older adults and to predict adverse health outcomes. In addition, the methods were compared on their prevalence of the identified frail persons and on the characteristics of persons identified. The Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI), the PRISMA-7, polypharmacy, the clinical judgment of the general practitioner (GP), the self-rated health of the older adult, the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS), the Identification Seniors At Risk Primary Care (ISAR PC), the Frailty Index (FI), the InterRAI screener and gait speed were compared to three measures: two reference standards (the clinical judgment of a multidisciplinary expert panel and Fried's frailty criteria) and 6-years mortality or long term care admission. Data were used from the Dutch Identification of Frail Elderly Study, consisting of 102 people aged 65 and over from a primary care practice in Amsterdam. Frail older adults were oversampled. The accuracy of each instrument and several stepped strategies was estimated by calculating the area under the ROC-curve. Prevalence rates of frailty ranged from 14.8 to 52.9 %. The accuracy for recommended cut off values ranged from poor (AUC = 0.556 ISAR-PC) to good (AUC = 0.865 gait speed). PRISMA-7 performed best over two reference standards, GP predicted adversities best. Stepped strategies resulted in lower prevalence rates and accuracy. Persons selected by the different instruments varied greatly in age, IADL dependency, receiving homecare and mood. We found huge differences between methods to identify frail persons in prevalence, accuracy and in characteristics of persons they select. A necessary next step is to find out which frail persons can benefit from intervention before case finding programs are implemented. Further evidence is needed to guide this emerging clinical field.

Development and Evaluation of the National Cancer Institute's Dietary Screener Questionnaire Scoring Algorithms.

PubMed

Thompson, Frances E; Midthune, Douglas; Kahle, Lisa; Dodd, Kevin W

2017-06-01

Background: Methods for improving the utility of short dietary assessment instruments are needed. Objective: We sought to describe the development of the NHANES Dietary Screener Questionnaire (DSQ) and its scoring algorithms and performance. Methods: The 19-item DSQ assesses intakes of fruits and vegetables, whole grains, added sugars, dairy, fiber, and calcium. Two nonconsecutive 24-h dietary recalls and the DSQ were administered in NHANES 2009-2010 to respondents aged 2-69 y ( n = 7588). The DSQ frequency responses, coupled with sex- and age-specific portion size information, were regressed on intake from 24-h recalls by using the National Cancer Institute usual intake method to obtain scoring algorithms to estimate mean and prevalences of reaching 2 a priori threshold levels. The resulting scoring algorithms were applied to the DSQ and compared with intakes estimated with the 24-h recall data only. The stability of the derived scoring algorithms was evaluated in repeated sampling. Finally, scoring algorithms were applied to screener data, and these estimates were compared with those from multiple 24-h recalls in 3 external studies. Results: The DSQ and its scoring algorithms produced estimates of mean intake and prevalence that agreed closely with those from multiple 24-h recalls. The scoring algorithms were stable in repeated sampling. Differences in the means were <2%; differences in prevalence were <16%. In other studies, agreement between screener and 24-h recall estimates in fruit and vegetable intake varied. For example, among men in 2 studies, estimates from the screener were significantly lower than the 24-h recall estimates (3.2 compared with 3.8 and 3.2 compared with 4.1). In the third study, agreement between the screener and 24-h recall estimates were close among both men (3.2 compared with 3.1) and women (2.6 compared with 2.5). Conclusions: This approach to developing scoring algorithms is an advance in the use of screeners. However, because these algorithms may not be generalizable to all studies, a pilot study in the proposed study population is advisable. Although more precise instruments such as 24-h dietary recalls are recommended in most research, the NHANES DSQ provides a less burdensome alternative when time and resources are constrained and interest is in a limited set of dietary factors. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

Corrective Equations to Self-Reported Height and Weight for Obesity Estimates among U.S. Adults: NHANES 1999-2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mozumdar, Arupendra; Liguori, Gary

2016-01-01

Purpose: Estimating obesity prevalence using self-reported height and weight is an economic and effective method and is often used in national surveys. However, self-reporting of height and weight can involve misreporting of those variables and has been found to be associated to the size of the individual. This study investigated the biases in…

Geographic Distribution and Temporal Trends of HIV-1 Subtypes through Heterosexual Transmission in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Xiao, Peipei; Li, Jianjun; Fu, Gengfeng; Zhou, Ying; Huan, Xiping; Yang, Haitao

2017-01-01

Background: Heterosexual transmission (HST) has become the current predominant transmission pathways of the HIV-1 epidemic in China. The aim of this study was to explore the geographic and dynamic change of HIV-1 subtypes through HST in China from published studies. Methods: Several electronic databases were searched to identify the studies, and the overall prevalence of HIV-1 subtypes was estimated by a meta-analysis method. Subgroup analysis was conducted by study region and time period. Publication bias was evaluated using Egger’s test. The χ2 test was used to evaluate the proportion differences among subgroups. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the stability of the overall prevalence estimates. Results: 42 studies were included in our final analysis. The overall prevalence of CRF01_AE was 46.34% (95% CI: 40.56–52.17%), CRF07_BC was 19.16% (95% CI: 15.02–23.66%), B/B’ was 13.25% (95% CI: 9.68–17.25%), CRF08_BC was 10.61% (95% CI: 7.08–14.70%), and C was 4.29% (95% CI: 1.85–7.48%). In subgroup analysis, the prevalence of CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC increased, while the prevalence of B/B’ decreased over time, whereby the prevalence of CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC have exceeded that of B/B’ since 2010. A significant higher prevalence of CRF01_AE was found in the South provinces, CRF07_BC in East provinces, CRF08_BC and C in Southwest provinces, and B/B’ in North provinces. Conclusions: The HIV-1 prevalent strains have evolved into complicated and diverse subtypes, and the proportion of HIV-1 subtypes through HST has changed constantly in different regions and periods in China. This highlights the urgent need to vigorously strengthen the prevention and control of the HIV-1 epidemic. PMID:28737729

Prevalence of anaemia in pregnant & lactating women in India.

PubMed

Agarwal, K N; Agarwal, D K; Sharma, A; Sharma, K; Prasad, K; Kalita, M C; Khetarpaul, N; Kapoor, A C; Vijayalekshmi, L; Govilla, A K; Panda, S M; Kumari, P

2006-08-01

The prevalence of anaemia during pregnancy and lactation was significantly lower in the National Family Health Survey 1998-1999 (NFHS-2), using the hemocue method for haemoglobin estimation compared to earlier surveys. The present study selected seven States and used the same districts and villages studied in the NFHS-2, to see if the reported reduction in prevalence of anaemia was due to health and nutrition inputs and/or due to a different method for haemoglobin estimation. A total of 1,751 women (1,148 pregnant and 603 lactating- exclusively breastfeeding up to 3 months of age), from seven States- Himachal Pradesh and Haryana in north; Assam and Orissa in east; Kerala and Tamil Nadu in south and Madhya Pradesh in central India, were selected. Haemoglobin was estimated by the cyanmethaemoglobin method, so that comparison was possible with earlier studies. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, pregnancy, nutritional status and dietary intakes were collected. Prevalence as well as severity of anaemia was significantly higher in the present study as compared to the NFHS-2 study data. The difference could be due to haemocue method, which gives higher haemoglobin values. The contributing factors found on multiple regression analysis for anaemia in pregnancy and lactation were: literacy, occupation and standard living index of the study women; their awareness about anaemia, its prevention by regular consumption of ironfolate tablets and increase in food intake. Maternal height, age of marriage, parity and foetal loss also contributed to haemoglobin level. There were interstate differences; lower fertility, higher literacy and better diet was observed in Himachal Pradesh as compared to Haryana. The literacy and nutritional status of women in Tamil Nadu was lower than Kerala. The remaining 3 states had poor fertility, lower social living index and nutritional status with >90 per cent women being anaemic in pregnancy and lactation. Low prevalence of severe anaemia in Orissa as compared to Assam was due to availability and consumption of iron folate tablets. The antenatal services in the first trimester and checkup by a doctor, along with availability and consumption of iron folate tablets over 3 months in all the States influenced haemoglobin levels. Despite the measures taken to control anaemia in pregnancy and lactation in the last two decades, the severity of nutritional anaemia continues to remain a public health issue of great magnitude, suggesting that these measures have been largely ineffective. The present findings also showed interstate differences particularly in fertility, women education, nutrition status and occupation; availability of antenatal services and iron folate tablets as possible factors responsible for differences in prevalence of anaemia.

Estimating the Population Size of Female Sex Worker Population in Tehran, Iran: Application of Direct Capture-Recapture Method.

PubMed

Karami, Manoochehr; Khazaei, Salman; Poorolajal, Jalal; Soltanian, Alireza; Sajadipoor, Mansour

2017-08-01

There is no reliable estimate of the size of female sex workers (FSWs). This study aimed to estimate the size of FSWs in south of Tehran, Iran in 2016 using direct capture-recapture method. In the capture phase, the hangouts of FSWs were mapped as their meeting places. FSWs who agreed to participate in the study tagged with a T-shirt. The recapture phase was implemented at the same places tagging FSWs with a blue bracelet. The total estimated size of FSWs was 690 (95% CI 633, 747). About 89.43% of FSWs experienced sexual intercourse prior to age 20. The prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus infection among FSWs was 4.60%. The estimated population size of FSWs was much more than our expectation. This issue must be the focus of special attention for planning prevention strategies. However, alternative estimates require to estimating the number FSWs, reliably.

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060

PubMed Central

Krijthe, Bouwe P.; Kunst, Anton; Benjamin, Emelia J.; Lip, Gregory Y.H.; Franco, Oscar H.; Hofman, Albert; Witteman, Jacqueline C.M.; Stricker, Bruno H.; Heeringa, Jan

2013-01-01

Aims Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. Methods and results Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55–59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4–3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7–4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5–30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1–19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5–12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6–23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable. Conclusion We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications. PMID:23900699

Prevalence and incidence of hypertension from 1995 to 2005: a population-based study

PubMed Central

Tu, Karen; Chen, Zhongliang; Lipscombe, Lorraine L.

2008-01-01

Background Researchers have predicted that there will be a relative increase of 24% in the prevalence of hypertension in developed countries from 2000 to 2025. Hypertension is a leading risk factor for death, stroke, cardiovascular disease and renal disease. Thus, accurate estimates of the prevalence of hypertension in a population have important implications for public policy. We sought to assess whether the estimated increase in the prevalence of hypertension has been underestimated. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study using linked administrative data for adults aged 20 years and older in Ontario, Canada's most populous province with more than 12 million residents. Using a validated case-definition algorithm for hypertension, we examined trends in prevalence from 1995 to 2005 and in incidence from 1997 to 2004. Results The number of adults with hypertension more than doubled from 1995 to 2005. The age-and sex-adjusted prevalence increased from 153.1 per 1000 adults in 1995 to 244.8 per 1000 in 2005, which was a relative increase of 60.0% (p < 0.001). The age-and sex-adjusted incidence of hypertension increased from 25.5 per 1000 adults in 1997 to 32.1 per 1000 in 2004, which was a relative increase of 25.7% (p < 0.001). Interpretation Our findings indicate that the rise in hypertension prevalence will likely far exceed the predicted prevalence for 2025. Public health strategies to prevent and manage hypertension and its sequelae are urgently needed. PMID:18490638

Epidemiology of male same-sex behaviour and associated sexual health indicators in low- and middle-income countries: 2003–2007 estimates

PubMed Central

Cáceres, C F; Konda, K; Segura, E R; Lyerla, R

2008-01-01

Objectives: To conduct a systematic review of published and unpublished data from research and public health information systems on the prevalence of male-to-male sex in the total male population; as well as among men who have sex with men (MSM), data on prevalence of heterosexual activity and heterosexual unions; prevalence of condom use with male and female partners; and prevalence of HIV infection and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Methods: Key indicators were defined (a) among men in the general population: prevalence of sex with a man ever and last year; (b) among MSM: prevalence of heterosexual experiences ever and last year; proportion of male-female transgenders; proportion of sex workers; prevalence of HIV and other STIs, condom use in last sexual encounter; consistent condom use with men last year; never used a condom with a man. With help from key informants, study searches were conducted in Pubmed, LILLACS, institutional databases, conference records and other sources. Methodology and quality of information were assessed, and the best data available for 2003–7 were selected. Indicator estimates from each study were used to propose regional estimate ranges. Results: A total of 83 new entries were entered into the database in addition to the previous 561, totalling 644. Of these, 107 showing 2003–7 data were selected. Many new studies came from sub-Saharan Africa, portraying hidden HIV epidemics among MSM. The most frequently reported estimate was HIV infection, with high estimate ranges in most of the regions, except for Middle East and North Africa and Eastern Europe. The next most frequently reported was lifetime frequency of heterosexual sex, showing that roughly 50% of MSM ever had sex with a woman. The small number of newer studies reporting prevalence of “sex with a man in last 12 months” between 2003 and 2007, did not warrant enough new evidence to revise our 2005 size estimates for MSM populations. Conclusions: A considerable number of new studies with estimates of relevance to understanding sexual behaviour and HIV among MSM were identified, with an encouraging amount of new data coming from sub-Saharan Africa. However, limitations in the quality, utility and comparability of available information persist. At least three measures could be promoted for use in surveillance and academic studies: standardised indicators for MSM studies; standardised operational definitions of, and instructions to describe, variables; and standardised research designs and data gathering strategies. A prerequisite for this all is intense advocacy to ensure a social climate in which research into such matters is prioritised, resources are made available as needed and the human rights of MSM are respected. PMID:18647866

Determining the Actual Prevalence of Hepatitis B in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-Pakistan: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Khan, Najeeb Ullah; Zalan, Ali; Petruzziello, Arnolfo; ud din, Iftikhar; Haq, Fazle; Hayat, Yousaf

2018-01-01

Background: Hepatitis B is considered the most dangerous among the five types of Hepatitis, as it is clinically asymptomatic. It can silently damage the liver over many years without being diagnosed. Hepatitis B is one of the top risks of liver complications in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), a province of Pakistan, with an average prevalence rate of 2.70%. Aims: We aimed to carefully review the previously published data on prevalence of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) in KP-Pakistan and use the statistical approach to obtain more precise estimate of the prevalence of HBV in KP-Pakistan. This study on one hand will provide a more reliable and consolidated estimate (pooled estimate) of HBV in the stated region, on the other hand, it enabled us to judge the heterogeneity among the estimates found from these studies. The study is intended to provide more authentic prevalence record and help government/ non-government organizations and health professionals, which plan to initiate HBV prevention programs in KP-Pakistan. Methods: A meta-analysis was performed based on studies found in literature search from electronic databases and bibliography on the prevalence of HBV in KP-Pakistan from 2007 to 2017. Abstracts and results of twenty papers were thoroughly studied and the data were extracted. The findings from these studies were distributed in two groups (general and population at high risk) constituting 15 and 5 studies respectively. Results: The combined prevalence by considering random model for the general population of KP-Pakistan was observed to be 2.71%, while population at high risk was reasonably high i.e. 5.64%. By comparing this prevalence rate to the highest global prevalence of HBV in the adult population of Western Pacific Region (6.2%), significant (p-value= 0.000) heterogeneity was observed among the estimates in each group. However, the funnel plot provides a symmetric look, eliminating the effect of publication bias. We can say that HBV has an alarming prevalence rate in KP-Pakistan. However, HBV is thrice more prevalent in male population of KP-Pakistan than the female population. Conclusion: The above results lead that HBV infection has reached an alarming state in KP-Pakistan, though projects like Prime Minister’s Program for Prevention & Control of Hepatitis which are contributing in improving the health of the people of KP by trying to prevent and control the incidence of HBV. More massive vaccination and awareness programs should be initiated to prevent the spread of HBV on urgent basis. Provision of diagnostics and treatment facilities against HBV in healthcare units of KP-Pakistan should be assured. PMID:29576813

Prevalence estimates of depression in elderly community-dwelling African Americans in Indianapolis and Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria

PubMed Central

Baiyewu, Olusegun; Smith-Gamble, Valerie; Lane, Kathleen A.; Gureje, Oye; Gao, Sujuan; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Unverzagt, Frederick W.; Hall, Kathleen S.; Hendrie, Hugh C.

2010-01-01

Background This is a community-based longitudinal epidemiological comparative study of elderly African Americans in Indianapolis and elderly Yoruba in Ibadan, Nigeria. Method A two-stage study was designed in which community-based individuals were first screened using the Community Screening Interview for Dementia. The second stage was a full clinical assessment, which included use of the Geriatric Depression Scale, of a smaller sub-sample of individuals selected on the basis of their performance in the screening interview. Prevalence of depression was estimated using sampling weights according to the sampling stratification scheme for clinical assessment. Results Some 2627 individuals were evaluated at the first stage in Indianapolis and 2806 in Ibadan. All were aged 69 years and over. Of these, 451 (17.2%) underwent clinical assessment in Indianapolis, while 605 (21.6%) were assessed in Ibadan. The prevalence estimates of both mild and severe depression were similar for the two sites (p = 0.1273 and p = 0.7093): 12.3% (mild depression) and 2.2% (severe depression) in Indianapolis and 19.8% and 1.6% respectively in Ibadan. Some differences were identified in association with demographic characteristics; for example, Ibadan men had a significantly higher prevalence of mild depression than Indianapolis men (p < 0.0001). Poor cognitive performance was associated with significantly higher rates of depression in Yoruba (p = 0.0039). Conclusion Prevalence of depression was similar for elderly African Americans and Yoruba despite considerable socioeconomic and cultural differences between these populations. PMID:17506912

Using 2 Assessment Methods May Better Describe Dietary Supplement Intakes in the United States.

PubMed

Nicastro, Holly L; Bailey, Regan L; Dodd, Kevin W

2015-07-01

One-half of US adults report using a dietary supplement. NHANES has traditionally assessed dietary supplement use via a 30-d questionnaire but in 2007 added a supplement module to the 24-h dietary recall (24HR). We compared these 2 dietary assessment methods, examined potential biases in the methods, and determined the effect that instrument choice had on estimates of prevalence of multivitamin/multimineral dietary supplement (MVMM) use. We described prevalence of dietary supplement use by age, sex, and assessment instrument in 12,285 adults in the United States (>19 y of age) from NHANES 2007-2010. When using data from the questionnaire alone, 29.3% ± 1.0% of men and 35.5% ± 1.0% of women were users of MVMMs, whereas data from the 24HR only produced prevalence estimates of 26.3% ± 1.1% for men and 33.2% ± 1.0% for women. When using data from both instruments combined, 32.3% ± 1.2% of men and 39.5% ± 1.1% of women were classified as MVMM users. Prevalence estimates were significantly higher by 2-9% in all age-sex groups when using information from both instruments combined than when using data from either instrument individually. A digit preference bias and flattened slope phenomenon were observed in responses to the dietary supplement questionnaire. A majority (67%) of MVMMs were captured on both instruments, whereas 19% additional MVMMs were captured on the questionnaire and 14% additional on the 24HR. Of those captured only on the 24HR, 26% had missing label information, whereas only 12% and 9% of those captured on the questionnaire or both, respectively, had missing information. Use of both the dietary supplement questionnaire and the 24HR can provide advantages to researchers over the use of a single instrument and potentially capture a larger fraction of dietary supplement users. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Current and projected prevalence of arterial hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa by sex, age and habitat: an estimate from population studies.

PubMed

Twagirumukiza, Marc; De Bacquer, Dirk; Kips, Jan G; de Backer, Guy; Stichele, Robert Vander; Van Bortel, Luc M

2011-07-01

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), data on hypertension prevalence in terms of urban or rural and sex difference are lacking, heterogeneous or contradictory. In addition, there are no accurate estimates of hypertension burden. To estimate the age-specific and sex-specific prevalence of arterial hypertension in SSA in urban and rural adult populations. We searched for population studies, conducted from 1998 through 2008 in SSA. We extracted data from selected studies on available prevalences and used a logistic regression model to estimate all age/sex/habitat (urban/rural)/country-specific prevalences for SSA up to 2008 and 2025. On the basis of the United Nations Population Fund data for 2008 and predictions for 2025, we estimated the number of hypertensives in both years. Seventeen studies pertaining to 11 countries were analysed. The overall prevalence rate of hypertension in SSA for 2008 was estimated at 16.2% [95% confidence interval (CI) 14.1-20.3], ranging from 10.6% in Ethiopia to 26.9% in Ghana. The estimated prevalence was 13.7% in rural areas, 20.7% in urban areas, 16.8% in males, and 15.7% in women. The total number of hypertensives in SSA was estimated at 75 million (95% CI 65-93 million) in 2008 and at 125.5 million (95% CI 111.0-162.9 million) by 2025. The estimated number of hypertensives in 2008 is nearly four times higher than the last (2005) estimate of the World Health Organization Regional Office for Africa. Prevalences were significantly higher in urban than in rural populations. Population data are lacking in many countries underlining the need for national surveys.

Prevalence and Causes of Paralysis—United States, 2013

PubMed Central

Armour, Brian S.; Courtney-Long, Elizabeth A.; Fox, Michael H.; Fredine, Heidi; Cahill, Anthony

2017-01-01

Objectives To estimate the prevalence and causes of functional paralysis in the United States. Methods We used the 2013 US Paralysis Prevalence & Health Disparities Survey to estimate the prevalence of paralysis, its causes, associated sociodemographic characteristics, and health effects among this population. Results Nearly 5.4 million persons live with paralysis. Most persons with paralysis were younger than 65 years (72.1%), female (51.7%), White (71.4%), high school graduates (64.8%), married or living with a partner (47.4%), and unable to work (41.8%). Stroke is the leading cause of paralysis, affecting 33.7% of the population with paralysis, followed by spinal cord injury (27.3%), multiple sclerosis (18.6%), and cerebral palsy (8.3%). Conclusions According to the functional definition, persons living with paralysis represent a large segment of the US population, and two thirds of them are between ages 18 and 64 years. Targeted health promotion that uses inclusion strategies to account for functional limitations related to paralysis can be undertaken in partnership with state and local health departments. PMID:27552260

Binge drinking and illicit drug use among adolescent students

PubMed Central

Raposo, Jakelline Cipriano dos Santos; Costa, Ana Carolina de Queiroz; Valença, Paula Andréa de Melo; Zarzar, Patrícia Maria; Diniz, Alcides da Silva; Colares, Viviane; da Franca, Carolina

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of illicit drug use and its association with binge drinking and sociodemographic factors among adolescent students. METHODS This is a cross-sectional study with probabilistic conglomerate sampling, involving 1,154 students, aged 13 to 19 years old, from the public school system, in the city of Olinda, State of Pernambuco, Brazil, carried out in 2014. We used the Youth Risk Behavior Survey questionnaire, validated for use with Brazilian adolescents. The Chi-square test (≤ 0.05) and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence ratios, with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS Use in life of illicit drugs was four times more prevalent among students who reported binge drinking (95%CI 3.19–5.45). Being in the age group of 16 to 19 years, being male, and having no religion were also significantly associated with illicit drug use. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of use in life of illicit drugs was higher in this study than in other studies carried out in Brazil and it was strongly associated with binge drinking. This factor was associated with gender, age, and religion. PMID:28876411

Raising Taxes to Reduce Smoking Prevalence in the US: A Simulation of the Anticipated Health and Economic Impacts

PubMed Central

Ahmad, Sajjad; Franz, Gregor A.

2008-01-01

Objective To estimate health and economic outcomes of raising the excise taxes on cigarettes. Methods We use a dynamic computer simulation model to estimate health and economic impacts of raising taxes on cigarettes (up to 100% price increase) for the entire population of USA over 20 years. We also perform sensitivity analysis on price elasticity. Results A 40% tax-induced cigarette price increase would reduce smoking prevalence from 21% in 2004 to 15.2% in 2025 with large gains in cumulative life years (7 million) and quality adjusted life years (13 million) over 20 years. Total tax revenue will increase by $365 billion in that span, and total smoking-related medical costs would drop by $317 billion, resulting in total savings of $682 billion. These benefits increase greatly with larger tax increases, and tax revenues continue to rise even as smoking prevalence falls. Conclusions Increasing taxes on cigarettes is a unique policy intervention that reduces smoking prevalence, generates additional tax revenue, and results in significant savings in medical care costs. PMID:17610918

Sample size for positive and negative predictive value in diagnostic research using case–control designs

PubMed Central

Steinberg, David M.; Fine, Jason; Chappell, Rick

2009-01-01

Important properties of diagnostic methods are their sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV). These methods are typically assessed via case–control samples, which include one cohort of cases known to have the disease and a second control cohort of disease-free subjects. Such studies give direct estimates of sensitivity and specificity but only indirect estimates of PPV and NPV, which also depend on the disease prevalence in the tested population. The motivating example arises in assay testing, where usage is contemplated in populations with known prevalences. Further instances include biomarker development, where subjects are selected from a population with known prevalence and assessment of PPV and NPV is crucial, and the assessment of diagnostic imaging procedures for rare diseases, where case–control studies may be the only feasible designs. We develop formulas for optimal allocation of the sample between the case and control cohorts and for computing sample size when the goal of the study is to prove that the test procedure exceeds pre-stated bounds for PPV and/or NPV. Surprisingly, the optimal sampling schemes for many purposes are highly unbalanced, even when information is desired on both PPV and NPV. PMID:18556677

Childhood disability in Malawi: a population based assessment using the key informant method.

PubMed

Tataryn, Myroslava; Polack, Sarah; Chokotho, Linda; Mulwafu, Wakisa; Kayange, Petros; Banks, Lena Morgon; Noe, Christiane; Lavy, Chris; Kuper, Hannah

2017-11-28

Epidemiological data on childhood disability are lacking in Low and Middle Income countries (LMICs) such as Malawi, hampering effective service planning and advocacy. The Key Informant Method (KIM) is an innovative, cost-effective method for generating population data on the prevalence and causes of impairment in children. The aim of this study was to use the Key Informant Method to estimate the prevalence of moderate/severe, hearing, vision and physical impairments, intellectual impairments and epilepsy in children in two districts in Malawi and to estimate the associated need for rehabilitation and other services. Five hundred key informants (KIs) were trained to identify children in their communities who may have the impairment types included in this study. Identified children were invited to attend a screening camp where they underwent assessment by medical professionals for moderate/severe hearing, vision and physical impairments, intellectual impairments and epilepsy. Approximately 15,000 children were identified by KIs as potentially having an impairment of whom 7220 (48%) attended a screening camp. The estimated prevalence of impairments/epilepsy was 17.3/1000 children (95% CI: 16.9-17.7). Physical impairment (39%) was the commonest impairment type followed by hearing impairment (27%), intellectual impairment (26%), epilepsy (22%) and vision impairment (4%). Approximately 2100 children per million population could benefit from physiotherapy and occupational therapy and 300 per million are in need of a wheelchair. An estimated 1800 children per million population have hearing impairment caused by conditions that could be prevented or treated through basic primary ear care. Corneal opacity was the leading cause of vision impairment. Only 50% of children with suspected epilepsy were receiving medication. The majority (73%) of children were attending school, but attendance varied by impairment type and was lowest among children with multiple impairments (38%). Using the KIM this study identified more than 2500 children with impairments in two districts of Malawi. As well as providing data on child disability, rehabilitation and referral service needs which can be used to plan and advocate for appropriate services and interventions, this method study also has an important capacity building and disability awareness raising component.

Global Birth Prevalence of Spina Bifida by Folic Acid Fortification Status: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Atta, Callie A M; Fiest, Kirsten M; Frolkis, Alexandra D; Jette, Nathalie; Pringsheim, Tamara; St Germaine-Smith, Christine; Rajapakse, Thilinie; Kaplan, Gilaad G; Metcalfe, Amy

2016-01-01

Birth defects remain a significant source of worldwide morbidity and mortality. Strong scientific evidence shows that folic acid fortification of a region's food supply leads to a decrease in spina bifida (a birth defect of the spine). Still, many countries around the world have yet to approve mandatory fortification through government legislation. We sought to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of period prevalence of spina bifida by folic acid fortification status, geographic region, and study population. An expert research librarian used terms related to neural tube defects and epidemiology from primary research from 1985 to 2010 to search in EMBASE and MEDLINE. We searched the reference lists of included articles and key review articles identified by experts. Inclusion criteria included studies in English or French reporting on prevalence published between January 1985 and December 2010 that (1) were primary research, (2) were population-based, and (3) reported a point or period prevalence estimate of spina bifida (i.e., prevalence estimate with confidence intervals or case numerator and population denominator). Two independent reviewers screened titles and abstracts for eligible articles, then 2 authors screened full texts in duplicate for final inclusion. Disagreements were resolved through consensus or a third party. We followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses, or PRISMA, abstracting data related to case ascertainment, study population, folic acid fortification status, geographic region, and prevalence estimate independently and in duplicate. We extracted overall data and any subgroups reported by age, gender, time period, or type of spina bifida. We classified each period prevalence estimate as "mandatory" or "voluntary" folic acid fortification according to each country's folic acid fortification status at the time data were collected (as determined by a well-recognized fortification monitoring body, Food Fortification Initiative). We determined study quality on the basis of sample representativeness, standardization of data collection and birth defect assessment, and statistical analyses. We analyzed study-level period prevalence estimates by using a random effects model (α level of < 0.05) for all meta-analyses. We stratified pooled period prevalence estimates by birth population, fortification status, and continent. Of 4078 studies identified, we included 179 studies in the systematic review and 123 in a meta-analysis. In studies of live births (LBs) alone, period prevalences of spina bifida were (1) lower in geographical regions with mandatory (33.86 per 100,000 LBs) versus voluntary (48.35 per 100,000 LBs) folic acid fortification, and (2) lower in studies of LBs, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy in regions with mandatory (35.22 per 100,000 LBs) versus voluntary (52.29 per 100,000 LBs) fortification. In LBs, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy studies, the lowest pooled prevalence estimate was in North America (38.70 per 100,000). Case ascertainment, surveillance methods, and reporting varied across these population-based studies. Mandatory legislation enforcing folic acid fortification of the food supply lags behind the evidence, particularly in Asian and European countries. This extensive literature review shows that spina bifida is significantly more common in world regions without government legislation regulating full-coverage folic acid fortification of the food supply (i.e., Asia, Europe) and that mandatory folic acid fortification resulted in a lower prevalence of spina bifida regardless of the type of birth cohort. African data were scarce, but needed, as many African nations are beginning to adopt folic acid legislation.

High Prevalence of Inadequate Calcium and Iron Intakes by Mexican Population Groups as Assessed by 24-Hour Recalls.

PubMed

Sánchez-Pimienta, Tania G; López-Olmedo, Nancy; Rodríguez-Ramírez, Sonia; García-Guerra, Armando; Rivera, Juan A; Carriquiry, Alicia L; Villalpando, Salvador

2016-09-01

A National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT) conducted in Mexico in 1999 identified a high prevalence of inadequate mineral intakes in the population by using 24-h recall questionnaires. However, the 1999 survey did not adjust for within-person variance. The 2012 ENSANUT implemented a more up-to-date 24-h recall methodology to estimate usual intake distributions and prevalence of inadequate intakes. We examined the distribution of usual intakes and prevalences of inadequate intakes of calcium, iron, magnesium, and zinc in the Mexican population in groups defined according to sex, rural or urban area, geographic region of residence, and socioeconomic status (SES). We used dietary intake data obtained through the 24-h recall automated multiple-pass method for 10,886 subjects as part of ENSANUT 2012. A second measurement on a nonconsecutive day was obtained for 9% of the sample. Distributions of usual intakes of the 4 minerals were obtained by using the Iowa State University method, and the prevalence of inadequacy was estimated by using the Institute of Medicine's Estimated Average Requirement cutoff. Calcium inadequacy was 25.6% in children aged 1-4 y and 54.5-88.1% in subjects >5 y old. More than 45% of subjects >5 y old had an inadequate intake of iron. Less than 5% of children aged <12 y and 25-35% of subjects aged >12 y had inadequate intakes of magnesium, whereas zinc inadequacy ranged from <10% in children aged <12 y to 21.6% in men aged ≥20 y. Few differences were found between rural and urban areas, regions, and tertiles of SES. Intakes of calcium, iron, magnesium, and zinc are inadequate in the Mexican population, especially among adolescents and adults. These results suggest a public health concern that must be addressed. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Prevalence of intellectual disabilities in Norway: Domestic variance.

PubMed

Søndenaa, E; Rasmussen, K; Nøttestad, J A; Lauvrud, C

2010-02-01

Based on national registers, the prevalence of intellectual disability (ID) in Norway is estimated to be 0.44 per 100 inhabitants. This study aimed to examine geographic and urban-rural differences in the prevalence of ID in Norway. Methods A survey based on the national register. Financial transfers intended to provide equal services to people with ID are based on these reports. Results A higher prevalence was found in the North region of Norway. A negative correlation between the population density and the prevalence of ID was also found. Conclusion There was considerable geographic and urban-rural differences in the prevalence of ID, which may be attributable to not only the large diversity of services, but also some other factors. The results were discussed with respect to the deinstitutionalisation progress, resource-intensive services and costs. Differences also reflect some problems in diagnosing ID in people having mild ID.

The Prevalence of Phenylketonuria in Arab Countries, Turkey, and Iran: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

El-Metwally, Ashraf; Yousef Al-Ahaidib, Lujane; Ayman Sunqurah, Alaa; Al-Surimi, Khaled; Househ, Mowafa; Alshehri, Ali; Da'ar, Omar B; Abdul Razzak, Hira; AlOdaib, Ali Nasser

2018-01-01

This paper seeks to identify the prevalence of Phenylketonuria (PKU) in Arab countries, Turkey, and Iran. The study reviewed the existence of comprehensive national newborn screening programs and reported consanguinity rates. A computer based literature search was conducted using relevant keywords to retrieve studies conducted on PKU. A total of 34 articles were included. Prevalence was categorized based on the type of screening method used for PKU diagnoses. The prevalence of classical PKU diagnosed through a comprehensive national newborn screening program ranged from 0.005% to 0.0167%. The highest prevalence was reported in Turkey at 0.0167%, whereas the lowest prevalence was reported in the UAE, 0.005%. The findings of this review emphasize the need for the establishment of more efficient reporting systems in these countries that would help measure Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) in order to estimate the overall societal burden of PKU.

A novel approach to estimating the prevalence of untaxed cigarettes in the USA: findings from the 2009 and 2010 international tobacco control surveys

PubMed Central

Fix, Brian V; Hyland, Andrew; O’Connor, Richard J; Cummings, K Michael; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank J; Licht, Andrea S

2014-01-01

Background Increases in tobacco taxes are effective in reducing tobacco consumption, but because of the addictive nature of cigarettes, smokers often seek out less expensive sources of cigarettes. The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of cigarette packs that are untaxed by the state in which the participant resides in a sample of US smokers at two time points. Methods Data for this study were taken from the 2009 and 2010 waves of the International Tobacco Control United States Survey. Members of this nationally representative cohort of smokers were invited to send us an unopened pack of their usual brand of cigarettes. Results In 2009, 318 packs were received from 401 eligible participants (79%). In 2010, 366 packs were received from 491 eligible participants (75%). In total, 20% of the packs in 2009 and 21% in 2010 were classified as untaxed by the participant’s state of residence. The prevalence of untaxed cigarettes was higher in states with higher-excise taxes. Smokers who do not have a plan to quit were significantly more likely to have sent back a pack that was classified as untaxed by the participant’s state of residence. Conclusions One in five packs were untaxed with rates higher in states with higher-excise taxes. It is unclear whether these estimates differ from the actual prevalence of cigarettes that are untaxed by a smoker’s state of residence. Harmonisation of excise tax rates across all 50 US states might be one method of reducing or eliminating the incentive to avoid or evade these taxes. PMID:23970794

Epidemiology of polycystic ovary syndrome: a cross sectional study of university students at An-Najah national university-Palestine.

PubMed

Musmar, Samar; Afaneh, Asma; Mo'alla, Hafsa

2013-05-20

Polycystic Ovary Syndrome (PCOS) is the most common gynecological endocrinopathy in women of reproductive age. Despite its heavy burden on female reproduction and general health, there is no study regarding PCOS prevalence in Palestine. This study aims to establish prevalence of PCOS among female university students at An-Najah National University-Palestine and to explore its possible risk factors. A cross sectional study was conducted on 137 female students using convenience sampling method for age group (18-24) years. PCOS cases were identified according to the National Institute of health (NIH) criteria through clinical interview and assessment for participants at the University clinics. Menstrual irregularities regarding cycle and flow were identified and clinical hyperandrogenism was assessed as the self-reported degree of hirsutism using the modified Ferriman Gallwey (mF-G) scoring method of more than 8 score. Biochemical hyperandrogenism for girls with menstrual irregularities was assessed by measuring free testosterone level. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 17 applying descriptive methods; different risk factor relationships were estimated using bivariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. The estimated prevalence of PCOS was 7.3%, acne was the only studied risk factor among others to be statistically significantly related to PCOS patients (OR=8.430, P-value=0.015). Clinical Hirsutism was found in 27% of participants, 70% of whom had idiopathic hirsutism. Prevalence of PCOS in Palestine seems to be relatively high but similar to other Mediterranean statistics. We recommend further studies using wider age group and larger sample for all parts of Palestine in order to generalize results.

Prevalence of Use of Anabolic Steroids by Bodybuilders Using Three Methods in a City of Iran

PubMed Central

Nakhaee, Mohammad Reza; Pakravan, Faezeh; Nakhaee, Nouzar

2013-01-01

Background The prevalence of substance use among bodybuilding athletes has been poorly studied in Iran. This study was conducted to examine the prevalence of drug use, especially anabolic steroids, among bodybuilding athletes. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted in the first half of 2013 among body building athletes referring to gyms located in Kerman, Iran. Five gyms were selected randomly and 380 athletes were invited to complete a self-administered anonymous questionnaire, consecutively. The questionnaire included two parts; baseline characteristics and substance related questions. The prevalence of anabolic steroids was estimated based on three methods; self-report, projective question, and crosswise model. Findings We enrolled 298 male athletes in the final analysis. Mean ± SD age of subjects was 25.9 ± 8.4. The most frequent recent (past 30 days) drug use was waterpipe smoking (45%). The second most frequently used drug was alcohol (26.5%, recent use). Based on self-reports, the prevalence of lifetime anabolic steroid use was calculated to be 24.5%. The corresponding figure based on crosswise method was obtained to be 56.8%. Participants believed that a median of 40% of athletes had used anabolic steroids in their lifetime. The prevalence of anabolic steroid was higher in single and less educated individuals (P < 0.05). The main reason for using anabolic steroids was to increase muscle size. Conclusion The prevalence of drug use, especially tobacco, alcohol, and anabolic steroids, was high among bodybuilding athletes. We could not rely on self-reports to examine anabolic steroid use. PMID:24494162

Is the burden of overweight shifting to the poor across the globe? Time trends among women in 39 low- and middle-income countries (1991–2008)

PubMed Central

Jones-Smith, Jessica C.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Siddiqi, Arjumand; Popkin, Barry M

2012-01-01

Background Overweight prevalence has increased globally; however, current time trends of overweight by social class in lower income countries are unknown. Methods We used repeated cross-sectional, nationally representative data from the Demographic and Health Surveys on women aged 18–49 with young children (n=421,689) in 39 lower income countries. We present overweight (body mass index ≥25) prevalence at each survey wave, prevalence difference and prevalence growth rate for each country over time is presented separately by wealth quintile and educational attainment. We present the correlation between nation wealth and differential overweight prevalence growth by wealth and education was estimated. Results In the majority of countries the highest wealth and education groups still have the highest prevalence of overweight and obesity. However, in a substantial number of countries (31% when wealth is used as the indicator of SES and 54% for education) the estimated increases in overweight prevalence over time have been greater in the lowest compared to the highest wealth and education groups. Gross Domestic Product per capita was associated with a higher overweight prevalence growth rate for the lowest wealth group compared to the highest (Pearson’s correlation coefficient: 0.45). Conclusions Higher (versus lower) wealth and education groups had higher overweight prevalence across most developing countries. However, some countries show a faster growth rates in overweight in the lowest (versus highest) wealth and education groups, indicative of an increasing burden of overweight among lower wealth and education groups in lower income countries. PMID:21912397

Community-Based Prevalence of Genital Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Infection: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sabeena, Sasidharanpillai; Bhat, Parvati V; Kamath, Veena; Bhat, Shashikala K; Nair, Sreekumaran; N, Ravishankar; Chandrabharani, Kiran; Arunkumar, Govindakarnavar

2017-01-01

Introduction: Cervical cancer probably represents the best-studied human cancer caused by a viral infection and the causal association of this preventable cancer with human papilloma virus (HPV) is well established. Worldwide there is a scarcity of data regarding HPV prevalence with vast differences existing among populations. Objective: The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the community-based HPV prevalence estimates among asymptomatic women from urban and rural set ups and in participants of cancer screening clinics. Study design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed-Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google scholar were systematically searched for studies providing prevalence data for HPV infection among asymptomatic women between 1986 and 2016. Results: The final analysis included 32 studies comprising a population of 224,320 asymptomatic women. The overall pooled HPV prevalence was 11% (95% confidence interval (CI), 9%-12%). The pooled HPV prevalence of 11% (95% CI, 9%-11%) was observed among women attending cervical cancer screening clinics. The pooled HPV prevalences were 10% (95% CI 8%-12%) and 11% (95% CI 4%-18%) from urban and rural areas respectively, indicating higher infection rates among the rural women with the least access to cancer screening and cancer care. Conclusion: The prevalence rates in this systematic quantitative review provide a reliable estimate of the burden of HPV infection among asymptomatic women from developed as well as developing nations. Rural women and women attending cervical cancer screening programmes feature higher genital HPV prevalences compared to their urban counterparts. PMID:28240509

Community-Based Prevalence of Genital Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) Infection: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed

Sabeena, Sasidharanpillai; Bhat, Parvati V; Kamath, Veena; Bhat, Shashikala K; Nair, Sreekumaran; n, Ravishankar; Chandrabharani, Kiran; Arunkumar, Govindakarnavar

2017-01-01

Introduction: Cervical cancer probably represents the best-studied human cancer caused by a viral infection and the causal association of this preventable cancer with human papilloma virus (HPV) is well established. Worldwide there is a scarcity of data regarding HPV prevalence with vast differences existing among populations. Objective: The aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the community-based HPV prevalence estimates among asymptomatic women from urban and rural set ups and in participants of cancer screening clinics. Study design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: PubMed-Medline, CINAHL, Scopus, and Google scholar were systematically searched for studies providing prevalence data for HPV infection among asymptomatic women between 1986 and 2016. Results: The final analysis included 32 studies comprising a population of 224,320 asymptomatic women. The overall pooled HPV prevalence was 11% (95% confidence interval (CI), 9%-12%). The pooled HPV prevalence of 11% (95% CI, 9%-11%) was observed among women attending cervical cancer screening clinics. The pooled HPV prevalences were 10% (95% CI 8%-12%) and 11% (95% CI 4%-18%) from urban and rural areas respectively, indicating higher infection rates among the rural women with the least access to cancer screening and cancer care. Conclusion: The prevalence rates in this systematic quantitative review provide a reliable estimate of the burden of HPV infection among asymptomatic women from developed as well as developing nations. Rural women and women attending cervical cancer screening programmes feature higher genital HPV prevalences compared to their urban counterparts. Creative Commons Attribution License

Epidemiology of Major Depressive Disorder in Iran: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Sadeghirad, Behnam; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar; Amin-Esmaeili, Masoumeh; Ananloo, Esmaeil Shahsavand; Ghaeli, Padideh; Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin; Talebian, Elham; Pourkhandani, Ali; Noorbala, Ahmad Ali; Barooti, Esmat

2010-01-01

Objectives: There are a large number of primary researches on the prevalence of major depressive disorder (MDD) in Iran; however, their findings are varied considerably. A systematic review was performed in order to summarize the findings. Methods: Electronic and manual searches in international and Iranian journals were conducted to find relevant studies reporting MDD prevalence. To maximize the sensitivity of the search, the references of relevant papers were also explored. We explored the potential sources of heterogeneity such as diagnostic tools, gender and other characteristics using meta-regression model. The combined mean prevalence rates were calculated for genders, studies using each type of instruments and for each province using meta-analysis method. Results: From 44 articles included in the systematic review, 24 reported current prevalence and 20 reported lifetime prevalence of MDD. The overall estimation of current prevalence of MDD was 4.1% (95% CI: 3.1-5.1). Women were 1.95 (95% CI: 1.55-2.45) times more likely to have MDD. The current prevalence of MDD in urban inhabitants was not significantly different from rural inhabitants. The analysis identified the variations in diagnostic tools as an important source of heterogeneity. Conclusions: Although there is not adequate information on MDD prevalence in some areas of Iran, the overall current prevalence of MDD in the country is high and females are at the greater risk of disease. PMID:21566767

Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries’ populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil. Methods and Findings We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815). Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%. Conclusions The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations. PMID:26131563

A systematic review of the frequency of neurocyticercosis with a focus on people with epilepsy.

PubMed

Ndimubanzi, Patrick C; Carabin, Hélène; Budke, Christine M; Nguyen, Hai; Qian, Ying-Jun; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Reynolds, Stephanie; Stoner, Julie A

2010-11-02

The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of studies reporting the frequency of neurocysticercosis (NCC) worldwide. PubMed, Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau (CAB) abstracts and 23 international databases were systematically searched for articles published from January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2008. Articles were evaluated for inclusion by at least two researchers focusing on study design and methods. Data were extracted independently using standardized forms. A random-effects binomial model was used to estimate the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy (PWE). Overall, 565 articles were retrieved and 290 (51%) selected for further analysis. After a second analytic phase, only 4.5% of articles, all of which used neuroimaging for the diagnosis of NCC, were reviewed. Only two studies, both from the US, estimated an incidence rate of NCC using hospital discharge data. The prevalence of NCC in a random sample of village residents was reported from one study where 9.1% of the population harboured brain lesions of NCC. The proportion of NCC among different study populations varied widely. However, the proportion of NCC in PWE was a lot more consistent. The pooled estimate for this population was 29.0% (95%CI: 22.9%-35.5%). These results were not sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular study. Only one study has estimated the prevalence of NCC in a random sample of all residents. Hence, the prevalence of NCC worldwide remains unknown. However, the pooled estimate for the proportion of NCC among PWE was very robust and could be used, in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy, to estimate this component of the burden of NCC in endemic areas. The previously recommended guidelines for the diagnostic process and for declaring NCC an international reportable disease would improve the knowledge on the global frequency of NCC.

Cigarette Graphic Warning Labels and Smoking Prevalence in Canada: A Critical Examination and Reformulation of the FDA Regulatory Impact Analysis

PubMed Central

Huang, Jidong; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Fong, Geoffrey T.

2014-01-01

Background The estimated effect of cigarette graphic warning labels (GWLs) on smoking rates is a key input to FDA's regulatory impact analysis (RIA), required by law as part of its rulemaking process. However, evidence on the impact of GWLs on smoking prevalence is scarce. Objective The goal of this paper is to critically analyze FDA's approach to estimating the impact of GWLs on smoking rates in its RIA, and to suggest a path forward to estimating the impact of the adoption of GWLs in Canada on Canadian national adult smoking prevalence. Methods A quasi-experimental methodology was employed to examine the impact of adoption of GWLs in Canada in 2000, using the U.S. as a control. Findings We found a statistically significant reduction in smoking rates after the adoption of GWLs in Canada in comparison to the U.S. Our analyses show that implementation of GWLs in Canada reduced smoking rates by 2.87 to 4.68 percentage points, a relative reduction of 12.1 to 19.6% — 33 to 53 times larger than FDA's estimates of a 0.088 percentage point reduction. We also demonstrated that FDA's estimate of the impact was flawed because it is highly sensitive to the changes in variable selection, model specification, and the time period analyzed. Conclusions Adopting GWLs on cigarette packages reduces smoking prevalence. Applying our analysis of the Canadian GWLs, we estimate that if the U.S. had adopted GWLs in 2012, the number of adult smokers in the U.S. would have decreased by 5.3 to 8.6 million in 2013. Our analysis demonstrates that FDA's approach to estimating the impact of GWLs on smoking rates is flawed. Rectifying these problems before this approach becomes the norm is critical for FDA's effective regulation of tobacco products. PMID:24218057

Assessing the prevalence of depression in Punjabi and English primary care attenders: the role of culture, physical illness and somatic symptoms.

PubMed

Bhui, Kamaldeep; Bhugra, Dinesh; Goldberg, David; Sauer, Justin; Tylee, Andre

2004-09-01

Previous studies exploring the prevalence of depression among South Asians reported inconsistent findings. Research artefacts due to sampling bias, measurements errors and a failure to include ethnographic methods may all explain this. We estimated the prevalence of depression, and variations of prevalence with culture, cultural adaptation, somatic symptoms and physical disability in a cross-sectional primary care survey of Punjabi and English attendees. We included a culture specific screening instrument, culturally adapted the instruments and offered bilingual interviews. We found that, compared with their English counterparts, depressive diagnoses were more common among Punjabis, Punjabi women, Punjabis with physical complaints and, contrary to expectation, even Punjabis with low scores for somatic symptoms.

[Potentials in the regionalization of health indicators using small-area estimation methods : Exemplary results based on the 2009, 2010 and 2012 GEDA studies].

PubMed

Kroll, Lars Eric; Schumann, Maria; Müters, Stephan; Lampert, Thomas

2017-12-01

Nationwide health surveys can be used to estimate regional differences in health. Using traditional estimation techniques, the spatial depth for these estimates is limited due to the constrained sample size. So far - without special refreshment samples - results have only been available for larger populated federal states of Germany. An alternative is regression-based small-area estimation techniques. These models can generate smaller-scale data, but are also subject to greater statistical uncertainties because of the model assumptions. In the present article, exemplary regionalized results based on the studies "Gesundheit in Deutschland aktuell" (GEDA studies) 2009, 2010 and 2012, are compared to the self-rated health status of the respondents. The aim of the article is to analyze the range of regional estimates in order to assess the usefulness of the techniques for health reporting more adequately. The results show that the estimated prevalence is relatively stable when using different samples. Important determinants of the variation of the estimates are the achieved sample size on the district level and the type of the district (cities vs. rural regions). Overall, the present study shows that small-area modeling of prevalence is associated with additional uncertainties compared to conventional estimates, which should be taken into account when interpreting the corresponding findings.

Celiac disease in Iran: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Mohammadibakhsh, Roghayeh; Sohrabi, Rahim; Salemi, Morteza; Mirghaed, Masood Taheri; Behzadifar, Masoud

2017-01-01

Introduction Celiac disease (CD) is a chronic autoimmune-mediated disorder with both intestinal and systemic manifestations. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of celiac disease in Iran. Methods We conducted a systematic search on Embase, Pub Med, Web of Science, Google Scholar, MagIran, Scientific Information database (SID) and Iranmedex from 2003 through to November 2015. The Der-Simonian/Laird’s (DL), with a 95% confidence interval employed to estimate the overall pooled prevalence. Heterogeneity was investigated by using subgroup analysis based on sample size and time of study. Results Sixty-three studies with 36,833 participants met inclusion criteria for analysis. The overall prevalence of celiac disease in 63 studies that had used serological tests for the diagnosis was observed as 3% (95% CI: 0.03–0.03) and the overall prevalence of celiac disease in studies that had used biopsy method for diagnosis was observed as 2% (95% CI: 0.01–0.02). Conclusion The prevalence of celiac disease in Iran was similar or even higher than world-wide reported. PMID:28461861

Determining Chronic Disease Prevalence in Local Populations Using Emergency Department Surveillance.

PubMed

Lee, David C; Long, Judith A; Wall, Stephen P; Carr, Brendan G; Satchell, Samantha N; Braithwaite, R Scott; Elbel, Brian

2015-09-01

We sought to improve public health surveillance by using a geographic analysis of emergency department (ED) visits to determine local chronic disease prevalence. Using an all-payer administrative database, we determined the proportion of unique ED patients with diabetes, hypertension, or asthma. We compared these rates to those determined by the New York City Community Health Survey. For diabetes prevalence, we also analyzed the fidelity of longitudinal estimates using logistic regression and determined disease burden within census tracts using geocoded addresses. We identified 4.4 million unique New York City adults visiting an ED between 2009 and 2012. When we compared our emergency sample to survey data, rates of neighborhood diabetes, hypertension, and asthma prevalence were similar (correlation coefficient = 0.86, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively). In addition, our method demonstrated less year-to-year scatter and identified significant variation of disease burden within neighborhoods among census tracts. Our method for determining chronic disease prevalence correlates with a validated health survey and may have higher reliability over time and greater granularity at a local level. Our findings can improve public health surveillance by identifying local variation of disease prevalence.

Bayesian geostatistical modelling of soil-transmitted helminth survey data in the People’s Republic of China

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Soil-transmitted helminth infections affect tens of millions of individuals in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China). There is a need for high-resolution estimates of at-risk areas and number of people infected to enhance spatial targeting of control interventions. However, such information is not yet available for P.R. China. Methods A geo-referenced database compiling surveys pertaining to soil-transmitted helminthiasis, carried out from 2000 onwards in P.R. China, was established. Bayesian geostatistical models relating the observed survey data with potential climatic, environmental and socioeconomic predictors were developed and used to predict at-risk areas at high spatial resolution. Predictors were extracted from remote sensing and other readily accessible open-source databases. Advanced Bayesian variable selection methods were employed to develop a parsimonious model. Results Our results indicate that the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections in P.R. China considerably decreased from 2005 onwards. Yet, some 144 million people were estimated to be infected in 2010. High prevalence (>20%) of the roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides infection was predicted for large areas of Guizhou province, the southern part of Hubei and Sichuan provinces, while the northern part and the south-eastern coastal-line areas of P.R. China had low prevalence (<5%). High infection prevalence (>20%) with hookworm was found in Hainan, the eastern part of Sichuan and the southern part of Yunnan provinces. High infection prevalence (>20%) with the whipworm Trichuris trichiura was found in a few small areas of south P.R. China. Very low prevalence (<0.1%) of hookworm and whipworm infections were predicted for the northern parts of P.R. China. Conclusions We present the first model-based estimates for soil-transmitted helminth infections throughout P.R. China at high spatial resolution. Our prediction maps provide useful information for the spatial targeting of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control interventions and for long-term monitoring and surveillance in the frame of enhanced efforts to control and eliminate the public health burden of these parasitic worm infections. PMID:24350825

Assessing coral health and disease from digital photographs and in situ surveys.

PubMed

Page, C A; Field, S N; Pollock, F J; Lamb, J B; Shedrawi, G; Wilson, S K

2017-01-01

Methods for monitoring the status of marine communities are increasingly adopting the use of images captured in the field. However, it is not always clear how data collected from photographic images relate to historic data collected using traditional underwater visual census methods. Here, we compare coral health and disease data collected in situ by scuba divers with photographic images collected simultaneously at 12 coral reef sites. Five globally relevant coral diseases were detected on 194 colonies from in situ surveys and 79 colonies from photos, whilst 698 colonies from in situ surveys and 535 colonies from photos exhibited signs of compromised health other than disease. Comparisons of in situ surveys with photographic analyses indicated that the number of disease cases occurring in the examined coral populations (prevalence) was six times higher (4.5 vs. 0.8% of colonies), whilst compromised health was three times higher (14 vs. 4% of colonies) from in situ surveys. Skeletal eroding band disease, sponge overgrowth and presence of Waminoa flatworms were not detected in photographs, though they were identified in situ. Estimates of black band disease and abnormally pigmented coral tissues were similar between the two methods. Estimates of the bleached and healthy colonies were also similar between methods and photographic analyses were a strong predictor of bleached (r 2  = 0.8) and healthy (r 2  = 0.5) colony prevalence from in situ surveys. Moreover, when data on disease and compromised health states resulting in white or pale coral colony appearance were pooled, the prevalence of 'white' colonies from in situ (14%) and photographic analyses (11%) were statistically similar. Our results indicate that information on coral disease and health collected by in situ surveys and photographic analyses are not directly comparable, with in situ surveys generally providing higher estimates of prevalence and greater ability to identify some diseases and compromised states. Careful sampling of photographs can however identify signs of coral stress, including some coral diseases, which may be used to trigger early-warning management interventions.

Sampling considerations for disease surveillance in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nusser, S.M.; Clark, W.R.; Otis, D.L.; Huang, L.

2008-01-01

Disease surveillance in wildlife populations involves detecting the presence of a disease, characterizing its prevalence and spread, and subsequent monitoring. A probability sample of animals selected from the population and corresponding estimators of disease prevalence and detection provide estimates with quantifiable statistical properties, but this approach is rarely used. Although wildlife scientists often assume probability sampling and random disease distributions to calculate sample sizes, convenience samples (i.e., samples of readily available animals) are typically used, and disease distributions are rarely random. We demonstrate how landscape-based simulation can be used to explore properties of estimators from convenience samples in relation to probability samples. We used simulation methods to model what is known about the habitat preferences of the wildlife population, the disease distribution, and the potential biases of the convenience-sample approach. Using chronic wasting disease in free-ranging deer (Odocoileus virginianus) as a simple illustration, we show that using probability sample designs with appropriate estimators provides unbiased surveillance parameter estimates but that the selection bias and coverage errors associated with convenience samples can lead to biased and misleading results. We also suggest practical alternatives to convenience samples that mix probability and convenience sampling. For example, a sample of land areas can be selected using a probability design that oversamples areas with larger animal populations, followed by harvesting of individual animals within sampled areas using a convenience sampling method.

The Spatial Distribution of Adult Obesity Prevalence in Denver County, Colorado: An Empirical Bayes Approach to Adjust EHR-Derived Small Area Estimates.

PubMed

Tabano, David C; Bol, Kirk; Newcomer, Sophia R; Barrow, Jennifer C; Daley, Matthew F

2017-12-06

Measuring obesity prevalence across geographic areas should account for environmental and socioeconomic factors that contribute to spatial autocorrelation, the dependency of values in estimates across neighboring areas, to mitigate the bias in measures and risk of type I errors in hypothesis testing. Dependency among observations across geographic areas violates statistical independence assumptions and may result in biased estimates. Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators reduce the variability of estimates with spatial autocorrelation, which limits the overall mean square-error and controls for sample bias. Using the Colorado Body Mass Index (BMI) Monitoring System, we modeled the spatial autocorrelation of adult (≥ 18 years old) obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg m 2 ) measurements using patient-level electronic health record data from encounters between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. Obesity prevalence was estimated among census tracts with >=10 observations in Denver County census tracts during the study period. We calculated the Moran's I statistic to test for spatial autocorrelation across census tracts, and mapped crude and EB obesity prevalence across geographic areas. In Denver County, there were 143 census tracts with 10 or more observations, representing a total of 97,710 adults with a valid BMI. The crude obesity prevalence for adults in Denver County was 29.8 percent (95% CI 28.4-31.1%) and ranged from 12.8 to 45.2 percent across individual census tracts. EB obesity prevalence was 30.2 percent (95% CI 28.9-31.5%) and ranged from 15.3 to 44.3 percent across census tracts. Statistical tests using the Moran's I statistic suggest adult obesity prevalence in Denver County was distributed in a non-random pattern. Clusters of EB obesity estimates were highly significant (alpha=0.05) in neighboring census tracts. Concentrations of obesity estimates were primarily in the west and north in Denver County. Statistical tests reveal adult obesity prevalence exhibit spatial autocorrelation in Denver County at the census tract level. EB estimates for obesity prevalence can be used to control for spatial autocorrelation between neighboring census tracts and may produce less biased estimates of obesity prevalence.

HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

PubMed Central

Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

2013-01-01

Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

Prevalence of kidney disease in anaemia differs by GFR-estimating method: The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988–94)

PubMed Central

Estrella, Michelle M.; Astor, Brad C.; Köttgen, Anna; Selvin, Elizabeth; Coresh, Josef; Parekh, Rulan S.

2010-01-01

Background. Anaemia worsens as kidney function declines. Both conditions are associated with increased mortality. Serum cystatin C is purportedly a more sensitive marker of kidney disease and a better predictor of mortality than serum creatinine. However, studies suggest that extrarenal factors also influence cystatin C levels. Methods. We determined whether estimates of glomerular filtration rate [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)] based on serum cystatin C alone or in combination with serum creatinine were superior to those based on serum creatinine in recognizing impaired kidney function in the setting of anaemia in a sub-sample of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of the USA consisting of 6734 participants, 20 years or older. Results. The prevalence of moderate to severe kidney disease (eGFR 15–59 mL/min/1.73 m2) among anaemic persons was 15–16% when based on serum creatinine alone (eGFRSCR) or combined with cystatin C (eGFRSCR + CYSC); this estimate increased to nearly 25% when kidney function was estimated by cystatin C (eGFRCYSC). The adjusted odds ratios of kidney disease in anaemic versus non-anaemic persons were slightly higher with eGFRCYSC than eGFRSCR and eGFRSCR + CYSC in younger adults [odds ratio (OR) = 5.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.23, 12.17], women (OR = 5.34, 95% CI: 2.36, 12.06) and those with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 7.36, 95% CI: 1.98–27.36). Conclusions. Impaired kidney function was common in individuals with anaemia. Among anaemic individuals, the prevalence estimate for kidney disease was notably higher when kidney function was estimated by cystatin C alone compared with the estimations by serum creatinine alone or in combination with serum cystatin C. eGFRCYSC may be particularly helpful in identifying kidney disease in the setting of anaemia among younger persons, women and those with elevated CRP. Regardless of which renal biomarker is used, our study suggests that an evaluation for underlying kidney disease should be considered in the standard workup of anaemia. PMID:20176612

Are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in an information-technology region? A school-based study of three regions in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Roelfsema, Martine T; Hoekstra, Rosa A; Allison, Carrie; Wheelwright, Sally; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Baron-Cohen, Simon

2012-05-01

We tested for differences in the prevalence of autism spectrum conditions (ASC) in school-aged children in three geographical regions in the Netherlands. Schools were asked to provide the number of children enrolled, the number having a clinical diagnosis of ASC and/or two control neurodevelopmental conditions. Prevalence was evaluated by negative binomial regression and adjustments were made for non-response and size of the schools. The prevalence estimates of ASC in Eindhoven was 229 per 10,000, significantly higher than in Haarlem (84 per 10,000) and Utrecht (57 per 10,000), whilst the prevalence for the control conditions were similar in all regions. Phase two is planned to validate school-reported cases using standardized diagnostic methods and to explore the possible causes for these differences.

Prevalence of asthma among Middle Eastern children: A systematic review.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Masoud; Karimi, Mehran; Beheshti, Shima; Mohammadi, Masoud

2017-01-01

Background: The prevalence of asthma and allergy has increased during the last decades, especially in children. However, little is known about it in the Middle East region. This systematic review is aimed to estimate the prevalence of asthma among the Middle Eastern children. Methods: Local and international scientific databases including SID, Iranmedex, Medline and Science Direct were systematically searched for relevant keywords including; asthma, prevalence, children, International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISACC) and the names of Middle Eastern countries for the period of 1996-2011. Papers in Persian and English which met the defined criteria were included into the study. Bibliographies of the extracted articles were also searched. After extraction of data, heterogeneity between studies and publication bias were measured using Egger's-test. Effect size was pooled by the random-effect model. Since significant heterogeneity was found between studies, univariate meta-regression analyses were done to assess the association of variables with the overall results. Results: Fifty studies in the Middle East examined the prevalence of asthma and allergy in children under the age of 18 years according to the ISAAC criteria and were included. A total number of 289,717 children were examined in the included studies and the prevalence varied from 0.7 % in Isfahan to 22.3 % in Bagdad. The total prevalence of diagnosed asthma was calculated 7.53 % (95% Cl: 6.38-8.75). Prevalence of asthma in the 13-14 years age group was 7.57% (95% Cl: 5.78-9.29) and in 6-7 years age group was 7.43% (95% Cl: 5.75-9.10). The prevalence of asthma among girls, based on random effect model, was 6.30% (95% Cl: 4.97-7.61) and among boys, it was 8.91% (95% Cl: 6.80-11.04). Conclusion: The prevalence of asthma in the Middle East is lower than most developed countries. However, there is not enough longitudinal data to estimate the trend over time. In order to have more accurate estimates and to provide evidence for proper planning, standard epidemiologic studies should be conducted in countries of the region.

Population Estimates, Health Care Characteristics, and Material Hardship Experiences of U.S. Children with Parent-Reported Speech-Language Difficulties: Evidence from Three Nationally Representative Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sonik, Rajan A.; Parish, Susan L.; Akorbirshoev, Ilhom; Son, Esther; Rosenthal, Eliana

2014-01-01

Purpose: To provide estimates for the prevalence of parent-reported speech-language difficulties in U.S. children, and to describe the levels of health care access and material hardship in this population. Method: We tabulated descriptive and bivariate statistics using cross-sectional data from the 2007 and 2011/2012 iterations of the National…

Differences in physical activity prevalence and trends from 3 U.S. surveillance systems: NHIS, NHANES, and BRFSS.

PubMed

Carlson, Susan A; Densmore, Dianna; Fulton, Janet E; Yore, Michelle M; Kohl, Harold W

2009-01-01

Three U.S. surveillance systems-National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)--estimate physical activity prevalence. Survey differences were examined qualitatively. Prevalence estimates by sex, age, and race/ethnicity were assessed for comparable survey periods. Trends were examined from NHIS 1998 to 2007, NHANES 1999 to 2006, and BRFSS 2001 to 2007. Age-adjusted prevalence estimates appeared most similar for NHIS 2005 (physically active: 30.2%, inactive: 40.7%) and NHANES 2005 to 2006 (physically active: 33.5%, inactive: 32.4%). In BRFSS 2005, prevalence of being physically active was 48.3% and inactive was 13.9%. Across all systems, men were more likely to be active than women; non-Hispanic whites were most likely to be active; as age increased, overall prevalence of being active decreased. Prevalence of being active exhibited a significant increasing trend only in BRFSS 2001 to 2007 (P < .001), while prevalence of being inactive decreased significantly in NHANES 1999 to 2006 (P < .001) and BRFSS 2001 to 2007 (P < .001). Different ways of assessing physical activity in surveillance systems result in different prevalence estimates. Before comparing estimates from different systems, all aspects of data collection and data analysis should be examined to determine if comparisons are appropriate.

Estimation of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in South Korea, Revisited

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pantelis, Peter C.; Kennedy, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Two-phase designs in epidemiological studies of autism prevalence introduce methodological complications that can severely limit the precision of resulting estimates. If the assumptions used to derive the prevalence estimate are invalid or if the uncertainty surrounding these assumptions is not properly accounted for in the statistical inference…

Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Latin America: A Comparison with the United States. The Latin American Consortium of Studies in Obesity (LASO)

PubMed Central

Chirinos, Julio A.; Gómez, Luis F.; Perel, Pablo; Pichardo, Rafael; González, Angel; Sánchez, José R.; Ferreccio, Catterina; Aguilera, Ximena; Silva, Eglé; Oróstegui, Myriam; Medina-Lezama, Josefina; Pérez, Cynthia M.; Suárez, Erick; Ortiz, Ana P.; Rosero, Luis; Schapochnik, Noberto; Ortiz, Zulma; Ferrante, Daniel; Casas, Juan P.

2013-01-01

Background Limited knowledge on the prevalence and distribution of risk factors impairs the planning and implementation of cardiovascular prevention programs in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region. Methods and Findings Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, abnormal lipoprotein levels, obesity, and smoking were estimated from individual-level patient data pooled from population-based surveys (1998–2007, n = 31,009) from eight LAC countries and from a national survey of the United States (US) population (1999–2004) Age and gender specific prevalence were estimated and age-gender adjusted comparisons between both populations were conducted. Prevalence of diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol in LAC were 5% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.4, 7.9), 20.2% (95% CI: 12.5, 31), and 53.3% (95% CI: 47, 63.4), respectively. Compared to LAC region’s average, the prevalence of each risk factor tended to be lower in Peru and higher in Chile. LAC women had higher prevalence of obesity and low HDL-cholesterol than men. Obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were more prevalent in the US population than in LAC population (31 vs. 16.1%, 16.8 vs. 8.9%, and 36.2 vs. 26.5%, respectively). However, the prevalence of low HDL-cholesterol was higher in LAC than in the US (53.3 vs. 33.7%). Conclusions Major cardiovascular risk factors are highly prevalent in LAC region, in particular low HDL-cholesterol. In addition, marked differences do exist in this prevalence profile between LAC and the US. The observed patterns of obesity-related risk factors and their current and future impact on the burden of cardiovascular diseases remain to be explained. PMID:23349785

Do HIV Prevalence Trends in ANC Surveillance Represent Trends in the General Population in the ART Era? The Case of Manicaland, East Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Gregson, Simon; Dharmayat, Kanika; Pereboom, Monique; Takaruza, Albert; Mugurungi, Owen; Schur, Nadine; Nyamukapa, Constance A.

2016-01-01

Objective National estimates of HIV trends in generalised epidemics rely on HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance. We investigate whether HIV prevalence trends in ANC data reflect trends in men and women in the general population during the scale-up of anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods Trends in HIV prevalence in local ANC attendees and adults aged 15-49yrs in towns, agricultural estates, and villages were compared using five rounds of parallel ANC (N≈1,200) and general-population surveys (N≈10,000) and multi-variable log-linear regression. Changes in the age-pattern of HIV prevalence and the age-distribution of ANC attendees were compared with those in the general population. Age-specific pregnancy prevalence rates were compared by HIV infection and ART status. Results Cumulatively, from 1998-2000 to 2009-2011, HIV prevalence fell by 60.0% (95% CI, 51.1%-67.3%) in ANC surveillance data and by 34.3% (30.8%-37.7%) in the general population. Most of the difference arose following the introduction of ART (2006-2011). The estates and villages reflected this overall pattern but HIV prevalence in the towns was lower at local ANCs than in the general population, largely due to attendance by pregnant women from outlying (lower prevalence) areas. The ageing of people living with HIV in the general population (52.4% aged >35yrs, 2009-2011) was under-represented in the ANC data (12.6%) due to lower fertility in older and HIV-infected women. Conclusion After the introduction of ART in Manicaland, HIV prevalence declined more steeply in ANC surveillance data than in the general population. Models used for HIV estimates must reflect this change in bias. PMID:26372390

Prevalence of Glaucoma in the United States: The 2005–2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

PubMed Central

Gupta, Priya; Zhao, Di; Guallar, Eliseo; Ko, Fang; Boland, Michael V.; Friedman, David S.

2016-01-01

Purpose To estimate the prevalence of glaucoma in the US population based on optic nerve head photography, to estimate the prevalence of glaucoma awareness, and to identify demographic and ocular risk factors for being unaware of having glaucoma. Methods The study included 5746 men and women 40 years of age and older participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005–2008. Each participant had 45° photographs of the macula and optic disc of both eyes. Fundus photographs were first graded by a reading center, and those with a cup-to-disc ratio (CDR) ≥ 0.6 were regraded by three glaucoma specialists to determine the presence or absence of glaucoma. Analyses were performed using NHANES weights to account for the complex multistage probability sampling design. Results The estimated overall prevalence of glaucoma in the US civilian, noninstitutionalized population 40 years of age and older was 2.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7%–2.6%). Glaucoma affected 2.9 million individuals, including 1.4 million women; 1.5 million men; 2.3 million people 60 years of age and older; and 0.9 million blacks, Mexican Americans, and people of other races. The prevalence of glaucoma was highest in non-Hispanic blacks, followed by non-Hispanic whites, Mexican Americans, and others. Over half of participants with glaucoma were unaware that they had the disease. Conclusions The prevalence of glaucoma based on optic nerve fundus photography assessment in the general US population 40 years of age and older was 2.1%. Approximately half of glaucoma cases were previously undiagnosed. Studies to determine whether and how to identify undiagnosed glaucoma are an important next step. PMID:27168366

Validity of Partial Protocols to Assess the Prevalence of Periodontal Outcomes and Associated Sociodemographic and Behavior Factors in Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Peres, Marco A.; Peres, Karen G.; Cascaes, Andreia M.; Correa, Marcos B.; Demarco, Flávio F.; Hallal, Pedro C.; Horta, Bernardo L.; Gigante, Denise P.; Menezes, Ana B.

2012-01-01

Background Most studies comparing prevalence of periodontal disease and risk factors by using partial protocols were performed in adult populations, with several studies being conducted in clinical settings. The aim of this study is to assess the accuracy of partial protocols in estimating the prevalence of periodontal outcomes in adolescents and young adults from two population-based birth cohorts from Pelotas, Brazil, and to assess differences in the estimation and strength of the effect measures when partial protocols are adopted compared to full-mouth examination. Methods Gingival bleeding at probing among adolescents (n = 339) and young adults (n = 720) and dental calculus and periodontal probing depth among young adults were assessed using full-mouth examinations and four partial protocols: Ramfjord teeth (RT), community periodontal index (CPI), and two random diagonal quadrants (1 and 3, 2 and 4). Socioeconomic, demographic, and periodontal health-related variables were also collected. Sensitivity, absolute and relative bias, and inflation factors were calculated. Prevalence ratio for each periodontal outcome for the risk factors was estimated. Results Two diagonal quadrants showed better accuracy; RT had the worst, whereas CPI presented an intermediate pattern when compared to full-mouth examination. For bleeding assessment in adolescence, RT and CPI underestimated by 18.4% and 16.2%, respectively, the true outcome prevalence, whereas among young adults, all partial protocols underestimated the prevalence. All partial protocols presented similar magnitude of association measures for all investigated periodontal potential risk factors. Conclusion Two diagonal quadrants protocol may be effective in identifying the risk factors for the most relevant periodontal outcomes in adolescence and in young adulthood. PMID:21859320

Prevalence and incidence of overweight and obesity among Vietnamese preschool children: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Do, Loan Minh; Tran, Toan Khanh; Eriksson, Bo; Petzold, Max; Ascher, Henry

2017-06-19

A plateau in childhood overweight and obesity has been reported in some developed countries while in almost all developing countries this problem is on the rise. The aim of this paper is to describe the changes in prevalence of overweight and obesity within a cohort of preschool children followed for 3 years, and to estimate and compare the incidences in urban and rural children of Hanoi, Vietnam. A longitudinal study of a cohort of 2677 children aged 3 to 6 years old at the beginning of the study was conducted in urban DodaLab and rural FilaBavi, Hanoi, Vietnam. Overall, 2602 children, 1311 urban and 1291 rural, were followed for 3 years with identical measurements of weight and height in 2013, 2014 and 2016. Standard methods were used to estimate prevalence and incidence as well as confidence intervals. During the three-year follow-up, the overall estimated prevalence of overweight increased from 9.1% to 16.7%. For the urban children, the increase was considerably higher. The overall prevalence of obesity decreased from 6.4% to 4.5% with less decrease in the urban children. In the group of children who were overweight and obese at the start of the study, 41.4% and 30.7%, respectively, remained in the same state three years later. The incidence of overweight and obesity during the three years were 12.4% and 2.7%, respectively. Boys were more likely to develop obesity than girls. Already in preschool age, the prevalence of overweight is high and it continues to increase with age, especially in the urban area. Prevention and intervention programs need to start at early preschool age and actions in urban areas deserve priority.

Prevalence of Head Lice Infestation and Its Associated Factors among Primary School Students in Iran: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Moosazadeh, Mahmood; Afshari, Mahdi; Keianian, Hormoz; Nezammahalleh, Asghar; Enayati, Ahmad Ali

2015-12-01

Head lice infestation is one of the most important health problems, generally involving children aged 5-13 years. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of head lice infestation and its associated factors among primary school children using systematic review and meta-analysis methods. Different national and international databases were searched for selecting the relevant studies using appropriate keywords, Medical Subject Heading terms, and references. Relevant studies with acceptable quality for meta-analysis were selected having excluded duplicate and irrelevant articles, quality assessment, and application of inclusion/exclusion criteria. With calculating standard errors according to binomial distribution and also considering the Cochrane's Q test as well as I-squared index for heterogeneity, pediculosis prevalence rate was estimated using Stata SE V.11 software. Forty studies met the inclusion criteria of this review and entered into the meta-analysis including 200,306 individuals. Using a random effect model, the prevalence (95% confidence interval) of head lice infestation among primary school children was estimated as 1.6% (1.2-2.05), 8.8% (7.6-9.9), and 7.4% (6.6-8.2) for boys, girls, and all the students, respectively. The infestation rate was found to be associated with low educational level of parents, long hair, family size, mother's job (housewife), father's job (worker/unemployed), using a common comb, lack of bathrooms in the house, and a low frequency of bathing. This meta-analysis revealed that the prevalence of head lice infestation among Iranian primary school children is relatively high with more prevalence among girls. We also found that economic, social, cultural, behavioral, and hygienic factors are associated with this infestation.

Global prevalence and economic burden of urgency urinary incontinence: a systematic review.

PubMed

Milsom, Ian; Coyne, Karin S; Nicholson, Sean; Kvasz, Marion; Chen, Chieh-I; Wein, Alan J

2014-01-01

The prevalence and economic burden of urgency urinary incontinence (UUI) are difficult to ascertain because of overlap with data on overactive bladder and other types of incontinence. To summarize the evidence on the global prevalence and economic burden of UUI. A PubMed search was performed used the following terms: (urgency urinary incontinence OR urge incontinence OR mixed incontinence OR overactive bladder) AND (burden OR cost OR economic OR prevalence). A similar search was conducted using Embase. English-language articles published from 1991 through 2013 on non-neurogenic UUI were retained. We retained 54 articles (50 studies); 22 large-scale, population-based surveys indicated varying UUI prevalence estimates with ranges of 1.8-30.5% in European populations, 1.7-36.4% in US populations, and 1.5-15.2% in Asian populations, with prevalence dependent on age and gender. Nineteen smaller-scale studies supported these findings. Despite varying methods, 11 studies estimating the costs of UUI worldwide consistently concluded that the economic burden is substantial and will increase markedly as the population ages. In a 2005 multinational study, the annual cost-of-illness estimate for UUI in Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom was €7 billion. A US cost-of-illness study reported a total cost of $66 billion in 2007 US dollars. The costs of routine care and nursing home admissions for UUI were major contributors to the cost. UUI affects millions of men and women worldwide. Current evidence demonstrates the substantial economic burden of UUI to patients and society. Worldwide public health and clinical management programs are needed to improve UUI awareness and highlight the need for early diagnosis and management. Copyright © 2013 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations.

Anxiety and depressive disorders in people with epilepsy: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Scott, Amelia J; Sharpe, Louise; Hunt, Caroline; Gandy, Milena

2017-06-01

Comorbid anxiety and depressive disorders in people with epilepsy (PWE) are highly prevalent and associated with various adverse outcomes. However, the prevalence of anxiety disorders in PWE across studies is highly variable. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence and moderating factors of anxiety and depressive disorders in PWE. Following prospective registration (PROSPERO; CRD42015027101), electronic databases were searched for studies that reported the prevalence of both anxiety and depressive disorders in samples of PWE up until July 2016. Data extracted included the prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders, and moderators of interest (e.g., method of diagnosis, prevalence of drug-resistant epilepsy). Meta-analysis of the overall pooled prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders was conducted. The search yielded 8,636 unique articles, with 27 studies meeting final inclusion criteria (3,221 PWE). The pooled prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders was 20.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.3-26.0%) and 22.9% (95% CI 18.2-28.4%), respectively. Method of diagnosis significantly moderated anxiety disorder prevalence (Q statistic with one degree of freedom [Q 1 ] = 36.29, p < 0.0001); the prevalence of anxiety disorders based on unstructured clinician assessment was 8.1% (95% CI 5.7-11.4%), compared to a prevalence of 27.3% (95% CI 22.1-33.3%) based on a structured clinical interview. There were no significant moderators of depressive disorder diagnosis. Findings suggest the prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders in PWE are equivalent, and variability in prevalence of anxiety disorders across studies can be attributed partly to the method of diagnosis. These findings also challenge widely held assumptions that psychiatric comorbidity is more common in people with drug-resistant epilepsy. Future research should aim to improve the detection and management of these comorbidities in PWE, particularly anxiety disorders, which have remained relatively neglected. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International League Against Epilepsy.

Estimating the geographical distribution of the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in young Mexicans.

PubMed

Murguía-Romero, Miguel; Jiménez-Flores, Rafael; Villalobos-Molina, Rafael; Méndez-Cruz, Adolfo René

2012-09-01

The geographical distribution of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) prevalence in young Mexicans (aged 17-24 years) was estimated stepwise starting from its prevalence based on the body mass index (BMI) in a study of 3,176 undergraduate students of this age group from Mexico City. To estimate the number of people with MetS by state, we multiplied its prevalence derived from the BMI range found in the Mexico City sample by the BMI proportions (range and state) obtained from the Mexico 2006 national survey on health and nutrition. Finally, to estimate the total number of young people with MetS in Mexico, its prevalence by state was multiplied by the share of young population in each state according to the National Population and Housing Census 2010. Based on these figures, we estimated the national prevalence of MetS at 15.8%, the average BMI at 24.1 (standard deviation = 4.2), and the prevalence of overweight people (BMI ≥25) of that age group at 39.0%. These results imply that 2,588,414 young Mexicans suffered from MetS in 2010. The Yucatan peninsula in the south and the Sonora state in the north showed the highest rates of MetS prevalence. The calculation of the MetS prevalence by BMI range in a sample of the population, and extrapolating it using the BMI proportions by range of the total population, was found to be a useful approach. We conclude that the BMI is a valuable public health tool to estimate MetS prevalence in the whole country, including its geographical distribution.

Estimating infertility prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries: an application of a current duration approach to Demographic and Health Survey data

PubMed Central

Cox, Carie M.; Tunçalp, Özge; McLain, Alexander C.; Thoma, Marie E.

2017-01-01

Abstract STUDY QUESTION Can infertility prevalence be estimated using a current duration (CD) approach when applied to nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected routinely in low- or middle-income countries? SUMMARY ANSWER Our analysis suggests that a CD approach applied to DHS data from Nigeria provides infertility prevalence estimates comparable to other smaller studies in the same region. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Despite associations with serious negative health, social and economic outcomes, infertility in developing countries is a marginalized issue in sexual and reproductive health. Obtaining reliable, nationally representative prevalence estimates is critical to address the issue, but methodological and resource challenges have impeded this goal. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This cross-sectional study was based on standard information available in the DHS core questionnaire and data sets, which are collected routinely among participating low-to-middle-income countries. Our research question was examined among women participating in the 2013 Nigeria DHS (n = 38 948). Among women eligible for the study, 98% were interviewed. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS We applied a CD approach (i.e. current length of time-at-risk of pregnancy) to estimate time-to-pregnancy (TTP) and 12-month infertility prevalence among women ‘at risk’ of pregnancy at the time of interview (n = 7063). Women who were 18–44 years old, married or cohabitating, sexually active within the past 4 weeks and not currently using contraception (and had not been sterilized) were included in the analysis. Estimates were based on parametric survival methods using bootstrap methods (500 bootstrap replicates) to obtain 95% CIs. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The estimated median TTP among couples at risk of pregnancy was 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.2–6.3). The estimated percentage of infertile couples was 31.1% (95% CI: 27.9–34.7%)—consistent with other smaller studies from Nigeria. Primary infertility (17.4%, 95% CI: 12.9–23.8%) was substantially lower than secondary infertility (34.1%, 95% CI: 30.3–39.3%) in this population. Overall estimates for TTP >24 or >36 months dropped to 17.7% (95% CI: 15.7–20%) and 11.5% (95% CI: 10.2–13%), respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that estimates varied by age, coital frequency and fertility intentions, while being in a polygynous relationship showed minimal impact. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION The CD approach may be limited by assumptions on when exposure to risk of pregnancy began and methodologic assumptions required for estimation, which may be less accurate for particular subgroups or populations. Unrecognized pregnancies may have also biased our findings; however, we attempted to address this in our exclusion criteria. Limiting to married/cohabiting couples may have excluded women who are no longer in a relationship after being blamed for infertility. Although probably rare in this setting, we lack information on couples undergoing infertility treatment. Like other TTP measurement approaches, pregnancies resulting from contraceptive failure are not included, which may bias estimates. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS Nationally representative estimates of TTP and infertility based on a clinical definition of 12 months have been limited within developing countries. This approach represents a pragmatic advance in our ability to measure and monitor infertility in the developing world, with potentially far-reaching implications for policies and programs intended to address reproductive health. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS There are no competing interests and no financial support was provided for this study. Financial support for Open Access publication was provided by the World Health Organization. PMID:28204493

Heterogeneity in Periodontitis Prevalence in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos

PubMed Central

Sanders, Anne E.; Campbell, Steven M.; Beck, James D.; Mauriello, Sally M.; Jimenez, Monik C.; Kaste, Linda M.; Singer, Richard H.; Beaver, Shirley M.; Finlayson, Tracy L.; Badner, Victor M.

2014-01-01

Purpose To examine acculturation and established risk factors in explaining variation in periodontitis prevalence among Hispanic/Latino subgroups. Methods Participants were 12,730 dentate adults aged 18–74 years recruited into the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL) from four U.S. field centers between 2008 and 2011. A standardized periodontal assessment measured probing pocket depth and gingival recession at six sites per tooth for up to 28 teeth. Periodontitis was defined according to the CDC/AAP case classifications developed for population surveillance. Covariates included acculturation indicators and established periodontitis risk factors. Survey estimation procedures took account of the complex sampling design. Adjusted multivariate binomial regression estimated prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence limits (95% CL). Results Unadjusted prevalence of moderate/severe periodontitis was 38.5% and ranged from 24.7% among Dominicans to 52.1% among Cubans. Adjusted prevalence ratios for subgroups relative to Dominicans were: 1.34 (95% CL: 1.13, 1.58) among South Americans; 1.37 (95% CL: 1.17, 1.61) among Puerto Ricans; 1.43 (95% CL: 1.25, 1.64) among Mexicans; 1.53 (95% CL: 1.32, 1.76) among Cubans; and 1.55 (95% CL: 1.35, 1.78) among Central Americans. Conclusion Heterogeneity in prevalence of moderate/severe periodontitis among Hispanic/Latino subpopulations was not explained by acculturation or periodontitis risk factors. PMID:24731697

Meta-analysis of classical swine fever prevalence in pigs in India: A 5-year study

PubMed Central

Patil, S. S.; Suresh, K. P.; Saha, S.; Prajapati, A.; Hemadri, D.; Roy, P.

2018-01-01

Aim: The aim of the study was to determine the overall prevalence of classical swine fever (CSF) in pigs in India, through a systematic review and meta-analysis of published data. Materials and Methods: Consortium for e-Resources in Agriculture, India, Google Scholar, PubMed, annual reports of All India Coordinated Research Project on Animal Disease Monitoring and Surveillance, and All India Animal Disease database of NIVEDI (NADRES) were used for searching and retrieval of CSF prevalence data (seroprevalence, virus antigen, and virus nucleic acid detection) in India using a search strategy combining keywords and related database-specific subject terms from January 2011 to December 2015 in English only. Results: A total of 22 data reports containing 6,158 samples size from 18 states of India were used for the quantitative synthesis, and overall 37% (95% confidence interval [CI]=0.24, 0.51) CSF prevalence in India was estimated. The data were classified into 4 different geographical zones of the country: 20% (95% CI=0.05, 0.55), 31% (95% CI=0.18, 0.47), 55% (95% CI=0.32, 0.76), and 34% (95% CI=0.14, 0.62). CSF prevalence was estimated in northern, eastern, western, and southern regions, respectively. Conclusion: This study indicates that overall prevalence of CSF in India is much lower than individual published reports. PMID:29657420

Prevalence of Obesity by Occupation Among US Workers

PubMed Central

Gu, Ja K.; Charles, Luenda E.; Bang, Ki Moon; Ma, Claudia C.; Andrew, Michael E.; Violanti, John M.; Burchfiel, Cecil M.

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate the prevalence of obesity and the change of prevalence of obesity between 2004–2007 and 2008–20011 by occupation among US workers in the National Health Interview Survey. Methods Self-reported weight and height were collected and used to assess obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2). Gender-, race/ethnicity-, and occupation-specific prevalence of obesity were calculated. Results Prevalence of obesity steadily increased from 2004 through 2008 across gender and race/ethnicity but leveled off from 2008 through 2011. Non-Hispanic black female workers in health care support (49.2%) and transportation/material moving (46.6%) had the highest prevalence of obesity. Prevalence of obesity in relatively low-obesity (white-collar) occupations significantly increased between 2004–2007 and 2008–2011, whereas it did not change significantly in high-obesity (blue-collar) occupations. Conclusions Workers in all occupational categories are appropriate targets for health promotion and intervention programs to reduce obesity. PMID:24682108

Prevalence of Injury in Occupation and Industry: Role of Obesity in the National Health Interview Survey 2004 to 2013

PubMed Central

Gu, Ja K.; Charles, Luenda E.; Fekedulegn, Desta; Ma, Claudia C.; Andrew, Michael E.; Burchfiel, Cecil M.

2016-01-01

Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate prevalence of injury by occupation and industry and obesity’s role. Methods Self-reported injuries were collected annually for US workers during 2004 to 2013. Prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were obtained from fitted logistic regression models. Results Overall weighted injury prevalence during the previous three months was 77 per 10,000 workers. Age-adjusted injury prevalence was greatest for Construction and Extraction workers (169.7/10,000) followed by Production (160.6) among occupations, while workers in the Construction industry sector (147.9) had the highest injury prevalence followed by the Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing/Mining/Utilities sector (122.1). Overweight and obese workers were 26% to 45% more likely to experience injuries than normal-weight workers. Conclusion The prevalence of injury, highest for Construction workers, gradually increased as body mass index levels increased in most occupational and industry groups. PMID:27058472

A Dirichlet-Multinomial Bayes Classifier for Disease Diagnosis with Microbial Compositions.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang; Lin, Huaiying; Dong, Qunfeng

2017-01-01

Dysbiosis of microbial communities is associated with various human diseases, raising the possibility of using microbial compositions as biomarkers for disease diagnosis. We have developed a Bayes classifier by modeling microbial compositions with Dirichlet-multinomial distributions, which are widely used to model multicategorical count data with extra variation. The parameters of the Dirichlet-multinomial distributions are estimated from training microbiome data sets based on maximum likelihood. The posterior probability of a microbiome sample belonging to a disease or healthy category is calculated based on Bayes' theorem, using the likelihood values computed from the estimated Dirichlet-multinomial distribution, as well as a prior probability estimated from the training microbiome data set or previously published information on disease prevalence. When tested on real-world microbiome data sets, our method, called DMBC (for Dirichlet-multinomial Bayes classifier), shows better classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian microbiome classifier based on a Dirichlet-multinomial mixture model and the popular random forest method. The advantage of DMBC is its built-in automatic feature selection, capable of identifying a subset of microbial taxa with the best classification accuracy between different classes of samples based on cross-validation. This unique ability enables DMBC to maintain and even improve its accuracy at modeling species-level taxa. The R package for DMBC is freely available at https://github.com/qunfengdong/DMBC. IMPORTANCE By incorporating prior information on disease prevalence, Bayes classifiers have the potential to estimate disease probability better than other common machine-learning methods. Thus, it is important to develop Bayes classifiers specifically tailored for microbiome data. Our method shows higher classification accuracy than the only existing Bayesian classifier and the popular random forest method, and thus provides an alternative option for using microbial compositions for disease diagnosis.

Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

PubMed Central

Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren

2012-01-01

Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [p<0.001], Ning Ming: from 17% to 11% [p = 0.003], and Ha Giang: from 51% to 18% [p<0.001]), reductions not experienced in other provinces without such interventions. There were significant declines in HIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640

Estimating infertility prevalence in low-to-middle-income countries: an application of a current duration approach to Demographic and Health Survey data.

PubMed

Polis, Chelsea B; Cox, Carie M; Tunçalp, Özge; McLain, Alexander C; Thoma, Marie E

2017-05-01

Can infertility prevalence be estimated using a current duration (CD) approach when applied to nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected routinely in low- or middle-income countries? Our analysis suggests that a CD approach applied to DHS data from Nigeria provides infertility prevalence estimates comparable to other smaller studies in the same region. Despite associations with serious negative health, social and economic outcomes, infertility in developing countries is a marginalized issue in sexual and reproductive health. Obtaining reliable, nationally representative prevalence estimates is critical to address the issue, but methodological and resource challenges have impeded this goal. This cross-sectional study was based on standard information available in the DHS core questionnaire and data sets, which are collected routinely among participating low-to-middle-income countries. Our research question was examined among women participating in the 2013 Nigeria DHS (n = 38 948). Among women eligible for the study, 98% were interviewed. We applied a CD approach (i.e. current length of time-at-risk of pregnancy) to estimate time-to-pregnancy (TTP) and 12-month infertility prevalence among women 'at risk' of pregnancy at the time of interview (n = 7063). Women who were 18-44 years old, married or cohabitating, sexually active within the past 4 weeks and not currently using contraception (and had not been sterilized) were included in the analysis. Estimates were based on parametric survival methods using bootstrap methods (500 bootstrap replicates) to obtain 95% CIs. The estimated median TTP among couples at risk of pregnancy was 5.1 months (95% CI: 4.2-6.3). The estimated percentage of infertile couples was 31.1% (95% CI: 27.9-34.7%)-consistent with other smaller studies from Nigeria. Primary infertility (17.4%, 95% CI: 12.9-23.8%) was substantially lower than secondary infertility (34.1%, 95% CI: 30.3-39.3%) in this population. Overall estimates for TTP >24 or >36 months dropped to 17.7% (95% CI: 15.7-20%) and 11.5% (95% CI: 10.2-13%), respectively. Subgroup analyses showed that estimates varied by age, coital frequency and fertility intentions, while being in a polygynous relationship showed minimal impact. The CD approach may be limited by assumptions on when exposure to risk of pregnancy began and methodologic assumptions required for estimation, which may be less accurate for particular subgroups or populations. Unrecognized pregnancies may have also biased our findings; however, we attempted to address this in our exclusion criteria. Limiting to married/cohabiting couples may have excluded women who are no longer in a relationship after being blamed for infertility. Although probably rare in this setting, we lack information on couples undergoing infertility treatment. Like other TTP measurement approaches, pregnancies resulting from contraceptive failure are not included, which may bias estimates. Nationally representative estimates of TTP and infertility based on a clinical definition of 12 months have been limited within developing countries. This approach represents a pragmatic advance in our ability to measure and monitor infertility in the developing world, with potentially far-reaching implications for policies and programs intended to address reproductive health. There are no competing interests and no financial support was provided for this study. Financial support for Open Access publication was provided by the World Health Organization. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology.

Estimated prevalence and incidence of diagnosed ADHD and health care utilization in adults in Sweden – a longitudinal population-based register study

PubMed Central

Polyzoi, Maria; Ahnemark, Ewa; Medin, Emma; Ginsberg, Ylva

2018-01-01

Background Although the worldwide prevalence of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults is estimated to be between 2% and 5%, it is considered to be underdiagnosed. This register study explored the prevalence of diagnosed ADHD and incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD in Swedish adults over time, and assessed comorbidities and pharmacologic treatment. Methods National Patient Register data were used to estimate the overall prevalence of adults (≥18 years) with a registered ADHD diagnosis from 2006 to 2011, and the incidence of newly registered diagnoses from 2007 to 2011. Data from the Prescribed Drug Register were used to estimate the mean dose of the most frequently prescribed ADHD medication. Results The estimated annual prevalence (N=44,364) of diagnosed ADHD increased from 0.58 per 1,000 persons in 2006 to 3.54 per 1,000 persons in 2011. The estimated annual incidence of newly diagnosed ADHD (N=24,921) increased from 0.39 per 1,000 persons to 0.90 per 1,000 persons between 2007 and 2011. At least one comorbidity was diagnosed in 52.6% of adults with ADHD (54.0% of newly diagnosed adults), with anxiety, substance use disorders, and depression being the most common. Among all adults with ADHD, 78.9% (65.7% of newly diagnosed adults) were prescribed ADHD medication and one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication. Osmotic release oral system methylphenidate was the most commonly used medication. The mean daily dose was 51.5 mg, and was significantly higher in males, patients with substance use disorders, patients with drug holidays, and patients with at least one add-on medication. The most frequent concomitant medications were anxiolytics and hypnotics. Conclusion In Sweden, the number of adults diagnosed with ADHD increased between 2006 and 2011, and the majority of patients were prescribed ADHD-specific medication. Over one-half of patients had psychiatric comorbidities; one-third were prescribed more than one add-on medication. Consumption of pharmacologic ADHD medication was high in specific patient subpopulations. PMID:29765219

The Global Epidemiology and Contribution of Cannabis Use and Dependence to the Global Burden of Disease: Results from the GBD 2010 Study

PubMed Central

Degenhardt, Louisa; Ferrari, Alize J.; Calabria, Bianca; Hall, Wayne D.; Norman, Rosana E.; McGrath, John; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Engell, Rebecca E.; Freedman, Greg D.; Whiteford, Harvey A.; Vos, Theo

2013-01-01

Aims Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden. PMID:24204649

Can we trust national smoking prevalence figures? Discrepancies between biochemically assessed and self-reported smoking rates in three countries.

PubMed

West, Robert; Zatonski, Witold; Przewozniak, Krzysztof; Jarvis, Martin J

2007-04-01

National smoking prevalence estimates are the primary basis for assessing progress in tobacco control across the world. They are based on surveys of self-reported cigarette smoking. It has been assumed that this is sufficiently accurate for policy purposes, but this assumption has not been adequately tested. We report data from the 2003 Health Survey for England, the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for 2001-2002, and the 2004 national smoking behaviors survey in Poland as examples of countries at different stages in the "tobacco epidemic." Self-reported cigarette and total tobacco smoking prevalence were assessed by means of the standard questions used in each country. In subsamples, specimens were collected for analysis of cotinine (saliva, N = 1,613 in England; serum, N = 4,687 in the United States; and saliva, N = 388 in Poland) providing an objective means of determining active smoking. A cut point of 15 ng/mL was used to discriminate active smoking from passive smoke exposure. Self-reported cigarette smoking prevalence using the standard methods underestimated true tobacco smoking prevalence by an estimated 2.8% in England, 0.6% in the United States, and 4.4% in Poland. Cotinine concentrations in those misclassified as nonsmokers were indicative of high levels of smoke intake. Underestimation of smoking prevalence was minimal in the United States but significant in England and Poland. A review of methodologies for assessing tobacco smoking prevalence worldwide is urgently needed.

Prevalence of Individuals Experiencing the Effects of Stroke in Canada: Trends and Projections.

PubMed

Krueger, Hans; Koot, Jacqueline; Hall, Ruth E; O'Callaghan, Christina; Bayley, Mark; Corbett, Dale

2015-08-01

Previous estimates of the number and prevalence of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada are out of date and exclude critical population groups. It is essential to have complete data that report on stroke disability for monitoring and planning purposes. The objective was to provide an updated estimate of the number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada (and its regions), trending since 2000 and forecasted prevalence to 2038. The prevalence, trends, and projected number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke were estimated using region-specific survey data and adjusted to account for children aged <12 years and individuals living in homes for the aged. In 2013, we estimate that there were 405 000 individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada, yielding a prevalence of 1.15%. This value is expected to increase to between 654 000 and 726 000 by 2038. Trends in stroke data between 2000 and 2012 suggest a nonsignificant decrease in stroke prevalence, but a substantial and rising increase in the number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke. Stroke prevalence varied considerably between regions. Previous estimates of stroke prevalence have underestimated the true number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada. Furthermore, the projected increases that will result from population growth and demographic changes highlight the importance of maintaining up-to-date estimates. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Iran: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Ostovar, Rahim; Kiani, Faezeh; Sayehmiri, Fatemeh; Yasemi, Masood; Mohsenzadeh, Yazdan; Mohsenzadeh, Yousof

2017-01-01

Background Metabolic syndrome) MetS( is a complex risk factor which increases the risk of cardiovascular diseases and type 2 diabetes. There are many studies with various populations and results about the prevalence of MetS in Iran; in order to authenticate these studies and have an overall estimation of its prevalence in Iran, performing a meta-analysis seems to be necessary. Objective This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of MetS and its components in Iran via meta-analysis method. Methods All associated published papers in national and international journals of PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Magiran, Iranmedex, Science Direct, Medlib, and SID databases were searched from January, 2000 to October, 2016. All types of studies, including local and national surveys that reported the prevalence of MetS among healthy populations in Iran were reviewed. The effects of age, sample size and publication date as possible sources of heterogeneity among the study findings was examined by meta-regression. P-values less than 0.05 were considered as significant in heterogeneity tests. All analysis was done by R Ver. 3.2.1 and STATA (version 10). Results Seventy eligible studies were selected for meta-analysis. The overall estimation of MetS prevalence was 25% (95% CI: 22–29%) based on the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III) criteria, 30% (95% CI: 25–36%) according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), and 39% (95% CI: 26–52%) based on the Joint Interim Societies (JIS) criteria. The prevalence of MetS was lower in men than in women (26.9% versus 35.7%). The prevalence of various MetS components including High TG (triglyceride), Low HDL-C, High BP and High FBS (fasting blood sugar) was 43%, 54%, 38% and 22% among the adult population. Conclusion Findings from the present meta-analyses study displayed a high prevalence of metabolic syndrome in Iran, especially in women, which increases with age in both sexes. It alerts health care providers and policy makers to find solutions in order to take action to reduce MetS risk in society. PMID:29238477

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds.

PubMed

Sergeant, E S G; Nielsen, S S; Toft, N

2008-06-15

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high PrLow in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.

Comparison of self-reported and observed prevalence of safety belt and helmet use in Florence.

PubMed

Lorini, C; Pieralli, F; Mersi, A; Cecconi, R; Garofalo, G; Santini, M G; Bonaccorsi, G

2014-01-01

Safety belt and helmet use was estimated from PASSI data and measured through Ulisse observations. Between 2008 and 2012 a total of 2,081 cars and motorcycle users were interviewed in the LHU of Florence and a total of 59,787 drivers (11,870 front passengers, 1,129 rear passengers and 16,816 motorcyclists) were observed. The comparison between self-reported and observed prevalences was performed by calculating the over-reporting factor (ORF), defined as the ratio of the self-reported to the observed prevalence of seat belt or helmet use. The time trend of the prevalence (both from self-reported and observed data) and of the ORF was assessed by using linear regression and Poisson's regression, respectively. The correlation between self-reported and observed prevalence is high, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.95 (p <0.05). Regarding front seat belt use rates, the difference between self-reported and observed data increases over time and the ORF range varies from 1.12 to 1.32. Rear seat belt data show a great variability, and the ORF varies from 0.67 to 1.37. In 2011 and 2012, the observed prevalence was higher than the self-reported one (ORF <1). Helmet use rates are very high, close to 100% with both methods; ORF has very small oscillations and ranges from 0.98 to 1, showing a good correlation between self-reported and observational data. There are no significant temporal variations both for the prevalences of use and for the ORF. The reasonable accuracy of self-reported data makes this method fit in the routinary assessment of safety belts and helmet usage, in order to limit the observations of the Ulisse system at predetermined time intervals. However, self-reported estimates need to be adjusted using an appropriate over-reporting factor.

Prevalence, Duration and Severity of Parkinson's Disease in Germany: A Combined Meta-Analysis from Literature Data and Outpatient Samples.

PubMed

Enders, Dirk; Balzer-Geldsetzer, Monika; Riedel, Oliver; Dodel, Richard; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Sensken, Sven-Christian; Wolff, Björn; Reese, Jens-Peter

2017-01-01

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of Parkinson's disease (PD) in Germany are limited. The aims of this study were to estimate the age- and gender-specific prevalence of PD in Germany as well as the severity and illness duration. A systematic literature search was performed in 5 different databases. European studies were included if they reported age- and gender-specific numbers of prevalence rates of PD. Meta-analytic approaches were applied to derive age- and gender-specific pooled prevalence estimates. Data of 4 German outpatient samples were incorporated to calculate the proportion of patients with PD in Germany grouped by Hoehn and Yahr (HY) stages and disease duration. In the German population, 178,169 cases of PD were estimated (prevalence: 217.22/100,000). The estimated relative illness duration was 40% with less than 5 years, 31% with 5-9 years, and 29% with more than 9 years. The proportions for different HY stages were estimated at 13% (I), 30% (II), 35% (III), 17% (IV), and 4% (V), respectively. Key Message: We provide an up-to-date estimation of age- and gender-specific as well as severity-based prevalence figures for PD in Germany. Further community studies are needed to estimate population-based severity distributions and distributions of non-motor symptoms in PD. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

2017-05-01

Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a <3-fold difference between prevalence estimates based on freshly isolated bacteria when compared to isolates collected from unprocessed fecal samples or fecal slurries that had been stored at 4°C for up to 7days. No time-dependence was evident (P>0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A prevalence-based association test for case-control studies.

PubMed

Ryckman, Kelli K; Jiang, Lan; Li, Chun; Bartlett, Jacquelaine; Haines, Jonathan L; Williams, Scott M

2008-11-01

Genetic association is often determined in case-control studies by the differential distribution of alleles or genotypes. Recent work has demonstrated that association can also be assessed by deviations from the expected distributions of alleles or genotypes. Specifically, multiple methods motivated by the principles of Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) have been developed. However, these methods do not take into account many of the assumptions of HWE. Therefore, we have developed a prevalence-based association test (PRAT) as an alternative method for detecting association in case-control studies. This method, also motivated by the principles of HWE, uses an estimated population allele frequency to generate expected genotype frequencies instead of using the case and control frequencies separately. Our method often has greater power, under a wide variety of genetic models, to detect association than genotypic, allelic or Cochran-Armitage trend association tests. Therefore, we propose PRAT as a powerful alternative method of testing for association.

Heavy episodic drinking among transgender persons: Disparities and predictors.

PubMed

Scheim, Ayden I; Bauer, Greta R; Shokoohi, Mostafa

2016-10-01

Drawing on a survey of transgender people in Canada's most populous province, we estimate the frequency of heavy episodic drinking (HED), compare HED prevalence to the age-standardized background population, and examine associations with socio-demographics, gender transition, and social exclusion. 433 transgender persons aged 16+ completed a respondent-driven sampling survey in 2009-2010. Analyses were weighted using RDS II methods, including frequencies and prevalence ratios. Overall and sex-specific estimates of HED among Ontario residents in the 2009-2010 Canadian Community Health Survey (n=39,980) were standardized to the overall and gender-specific transgender age distributions. Estimated prevalence of HED at least monthly among transgender Ontarians was 33.2% (95% CI: 26.3, 40.1), 1.5 times greater than expected based on the age-standardized Ontario population. Transmasculine (female-to-male spectrum) persons were more likely than transfeminine persons to report HED (42.2% versus 22.7%), an effect robust to covariate adjustment. Current sex work was associated with greater HED, but gender transition and social exclusion factors were not. Gendered pathways to alcohol misuse, particularly among transmasculine persons, warrant further research and intervention development. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating Wisconsin Asthma Prevalence Using Clinical Electronic Health Records and Public Health Data

PubMed Central

Tomasallo, Carrie D.; Hanrahan, Lawrence P.; Tandias, Aman; Chang, Timothy S.; Cowan, Kelly J.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We compared a statewide telephone health survey with electronic health record (EHR) data from a large Wisconsin health system to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin. Methods. We developed frequency tables and logistic regression models using Wisconsin Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and University of Wisconsin primary care clinic data. We compared adjusted odds ratios (AORs) from each model. Results. Between 2007 and 2009, the EHR database contained 376 000 patients (30 000 with asthma), and 23 000 (1850 with asthma) responded to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone survey. AORs for asthma were similar in magnitude and direction for the majority of covariates, including gender, age, and race/ethnicity, between survey and EHR models. The EHR data had greater statistical power to detect associations than did survey data, especially in pediatric and ethnic populations, because of larger sample sizes. Conclusions. EHRs can be used to estimate asthma prevalence in Wisconsin adults and children. EHR data may improve public health chronic disease surveillance using high-quality data at the local level to better identify areas of disparity and risk factors and guide education and health care interventions. PMID:24228643

A comparative cross-cultural study of the prevalence of late life depression in low and middle income countries

PubMed Central

Guerra, M.; Prina, A.M.; Ferri, C.P.; Acosta, D.; Gallardo, S.; Huang, Y.; Jacob, K.S.; Jimenez-Velazquez, I.Z.; Llibre Rodriguez, J.J.; Liu, Z.; Salas, A.; Sosa, A.L.; Williams, J.D.; Uwakwe, R.; Prince, M.

2016-01-01

Background Current estimates of the prevalence of depression in later life mostly arise from studies carried out in Europe, North America and Asia. In this study we aimed to measure the prevalence of depression using a standardised method in a number of low and middle income countries (LMIC). Methods A one-phase cross-sectional survey involving over 17,000 participants aged 65 years and over living in urban and rural catchment areas in 13 sites from 9 countries (Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Venezuela, Peru, China, India and Nigeria). Depression was assessed and compared using ICD-10 and EURO-D criteria. Results Depression prevalence varied across sites according to diagnostic criteria. The lowest prevalence was observed for ICD-10 depressive episode (0.3 to 13.8%). When using the EURO-D depression scale, the prevalence was higher and ranged from 1.0% to 38.6%. The crude prevalence was particularly high in the Dominican Republic and in rural India. ICD-10 depression was also associated with increased age and being female. Limitations Generalisability of findings outside of catchment areas is difficult to assess. Conclusions Late life depression is burdensome, and common in LMIC. However its prevalence varies from culture to culture; its diagnosis poses a significant challenge and requires proper recognition of its expression. PMID:26544620

PS2-5: Prevalence of Migraine in a Diverse Community – Electronic Methods for Migraine Ascertainment in a Large Integrated Health Plan

PubMed Central

Pressman, Alice; Jacobson, Alice; Avins, Andy

2013-01-01

Background/Aims Migraine, a common neurological disorder, is among the top 20 causes of disability worldwide. One-year prevalence of migraine in the US is estimated to range from 8–15%, with women affected at approximately three times the rate of men. Current methods for migraine ascertainment from headache clinics and surveys are costly, affected by clinic-ascertainment bias, and do not work in situations where patient contact is not feasible. With the growing use of electronic medical records (EMR), new methods must be developed for identifying and tracking migraine prevalence over time. We sought to develop an EMR algorithm, to identify migraine, and to characterize its prevalence in Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). Methods From EMRs of all KPNC members, we collected all outpatient migraine diagnoses (ICD9 code 346.xx) and migraine-specific prescriptions (ergots, triptans, and acetaminophen with caffeine) for 2006–2010. We chart-reviewed a random sample to develop an electronic Migraine Probability Algorithm (score 0–100). We tested the algorithm in a second independent chart review. Using membership data, we calculated prevalences by age, race, and gender. Results We identified 313,174 KPNC members with evidence of migraine - 233,620 women and 79,554 men. The 5-year period-prevalence of migraine among KPNC adults was 17.1% for women and 5.9% for men. Among children, rates did not differ by gender (<2%) until the age of 10, when prevalences were higher - 5.8% for girls and 3.5% for boys. For women, prevalence peaked at ages 25–29. In contrast, males experienced flat prevalence with age (range 5%–6%). Overall, Whites had higher prevalence than Asians, but Blacks did not differ appreciably. Conclusions We used EMR data to capture migraine diagnoses and show prevalence patterns similar to those reported in the literature. Prevalence of diagnosed migraine in KPNC was 2.5–3 times higher in women than men; migraine peaked with age in women, but remained flat for men; and prevalence of migraine among Asian adults was roughly 2/3 that of Whites. These methods for ascertainment of migraine are inexpensive and easy to implement and have applications and implications that extend well to other institutions and debilitating pain conditions.

Impact of Race/Ethnicity and Gender on HCV Screening and Prevalence Among US Veterans in Department of Veterans Affairs Care

PubMed Central

Belperio, Pamela S.; Loomis, Timothy P.; Mole, Larry A.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We assessed HCV screening and prevalence among veterans and estimated the potential impact of complete birth cohort screening, accounting for the disparate HCV disease burden by race/ethnicity and gender. Methods. We used the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Corporate Data Warehouse to identify birth dates, gender, race/ethnicity, and laboratory tests for veterans with at least 1 VA outpatient visit in 2012. We calculated HCV screening rates, prevalence, and HCV infection incident diagnosis. Results. Among 5 499 743 veterans, 54.7% had HCV screening through the VA. In more than 2.9 million veterans screened, HCV prevalence was 6.1% overall and highest among Blacks (11.8%), particularly Black men born in 1945 to 1965 (17.7%). HCV infection incident diagnosis in 2012 was 5.9% for men and 2.3% for women. An estimated additional 48 928 male veterans, including 12 291 Black men, and 1484 female veterans would potentially be identified as HCV infected with full birth cohort screening. Conclusions. HCV prevalence was markedly elevated among veterans born in 1945 to 1965, with substantial variation by race/ethnicity and gender. Full adoption of birth cohort screening may reveal substantial numbers of veterans with previously unknown HCV infection. PMID:25100421

Tubularized incised plate urethroplasty for hypospadias reoperation: a review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mousavi, Seyed A; Aarabi, Mohsen

2014-01-01

Tubularized Incised Plate (TIP) urethroplasty is a technique for urethral reconstruction of hypospadias although there are some controversies for its use in recurrent cases. The aim of this study was to review the results of TIP technique in various studies and the usage of different flaps for covering the repair site. Extensive Search was performed for articles published between 1994 and 2013 in common electronic databases. The overall TIP complication rates were estimated by a fixed effects model meta-analysis. 17 articles of hypospadia repair using the TIP method were reviewed. All studies performed surgery and repair on the basis of the Snodgrass's method; however, some introduced modifications to the method. The prevalence of complications in repeated TIP surgery was 11.1 to 33.3% and the most prevalent complication in different studies was fistula. Based on the meta-analysis, the overall estimation of complications was 21.8% (95% CI: 18.3 to 25.5). Most studies performed the incision of the urethral plate to create a supportive coverage upon neourethra, and confirmed its success. We recommend further investigation on using different flaps in well-designed randomized controlled trials to choose the best surgical method for repairing recurrent hypospadias.

Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis.

PubMed

McDonald, Scott A; Mohamed, Rosmawati; Dahlui, Maznah; Naning, Herlianna; Kamarulzaman, Adeeba

2014-11-07

Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009. Multi-parameter evidence synthesis methods were applied to combine all available relevant data sources - both direct and indirect - that inform the epidemiological parameters of interest. An estimated 454,000 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 392,000 to 535,000) HCV antibody-positive individuals were living in Malaysia in 2009; this represents 2.5% (95% CrI: 2.2-3.0%) of the population aged 15-64 years. Among males of Malay ethnicity, for 77% (95% CrI: 69-85%) the route of probable transmission was active or a previous history of injecting drugs. The corresponding proportions were smaller for male Chinese and Indian/other ethnic groups (40% and 71%, respectively). The estimated prevalence in females of all ethnicities was 1% (95% CrI: 0.6 to 1.4%); 92% (95% CrI: 88 to 95%) of infections were attributable to non-drug injecting routes of transmission. The prevalent number of persons living with HCV infection in Malaysia is estimated to be very high. Low/middle income countries often lack a comprehensive evidence base; however, evidence synthesis methods can assist in filling the data gaps required for the development of effective policy to address the future public health and economic burden due to HCV.

Simulating the impact of changing trends in smoking and obesity on productivity of an industrial population: an observational study

PubMed Central

Bhojani, Faiyaz A; Tsai, Shan P; Wendt, Judy K; Koller, Kim L

2014-01-01

Objective To estimate the impact of trends in smoking and obesity prevalence on productivity loss among petrochemical employees from 1980 to 2009. Methods Smoking and obesity informations were collected during company physical examinations. Productivity loss was calculated as differential workdays lost between smokers and non-smokers, and obese and normal-weight employees. Results During 1980–2009, smoking prevalence decreased from 32% to 17%, while obesity prevalence increased from 14% to 42%. In 1982, lost productivity from obesity was an estimated 43 days/100 employees, and for smoking, 65 days/100 employees, but by 1987, workdays lost due to obesity exceeded that attributable to smoking. In 2007, workdays lost from obesity were 3.7 times higher than for smoking. Conclusions Owing to the increasing trend in obesity, the productivity impact on employers from obesity will continue to rise without effective measures supporting employee efforts to achieve healthy weight through sustainable lifestyle changes. PMID:24747795

Integrating environmental and self-report data to refine cannabis prevalence estimates in a major urban area of Switzerland.

PubMed

Been, Frederic; Schneider, Christian; Zobel, Frank; Delémont, Olivier; Esseiva, Pierre

2016-10-01

Cannabis consumption is a topical subject because of discussions about reviewing current regulations. In this context, having a more comprehensive approach to assess and monitor prevalence and consumption is highly relevant. The objective of this work was to refine current estimates about prevalence of cannabis use by combining self-report data and results derived from wastewater analysis. Self-report data was retrieved from surveys conducted in Switzerland and Europe. Wastewater samples were collected at the wastewater treatment plant of Lausanne, western Switzerland, over a 15 months period. The occurrence of 11-nor-9-carboxy-delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC-COOH), a specific metabolite of delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), was monitored. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate consumption, prevalence and number of cannabis users in the investigated area. According to survey data, 12-months prevalence in western Switzerland was estimated to 6.2% of the population aged 15 or older, with an estimated daily cannabis consumption of 8.1gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1) (at 11.2% purity). The integrative model comprising self-report and wastewater data substantially reduced the uncertainty in the estimates and suggested a last-year prevalence of 9.4%, with a daily cannabis consumption of 14.0gday(-1)·1000inhab(-1). Although in the same order of magnitude, consumption and prevalence estimates obtained with the integrative model were 78% and 52% higher compared to self-report figures, respectively. Interestingly, these figures are similar to discrepancies observed when comparing self-reported alcohol consumption and sales or tax data. The suggested integrative model allowed to account for known sources of uncertainty and provided refined estimates of cannabis prevalence in a major urban area of Switzerland. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and concentration of Escherichia coli O157 in different seasons and cattle types processed in North America: A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research.

PubMed

Ekong, Pius S; Sanderson, Michael W; Cernicchiaro, Natalia

2015-09-01

Systematic review (SR) and meta-analyses (MA) methodologies were used to identify, critically evaluate and synthesize prevalence and concentration estimates for Escherichia coli O157 contamination along the beef production chain, and to illustrate differences based on cattle types and seasonality in North America from the scientific peer-reviewed literature. Four electronic databases were searched to identify relevant articles. Two independent reviewers performed all SR steps. Random effects MA models were used to estimate the pooled prevalence and concentration of E. coli O157 in feces, hides and carcasses of cattle processed in North America, including their seasonal estimates. The potential sources of between studies heterogeneity were identified using meta-regression and sub-group analysis. Results indicated differences in the fecal prevalence of E. coli O157 among cattle types: 10.68% (95% CI: 9.17-12.28%) in fed beef, 4.65% (95% CI: 3.37-6.10%) in adult beef, and 1.79% (95% CI: 1.20-2.48%) in adult dairy. Fed beef fecal prevalence was 10.65% (95% CI: 8.93-12.49%) during summer and 9.17% (95% CI: 5.24-13.98%) during the winter months. For adult beef, the fecal prevalence was 7.86% (95% CI: 5.43-10.66%) during summer, and 4.21% (95% CI: 1.95-7.13%) during winter. Among adult dairy, the fecal prevalence was 2.27% (95% CI: 1.5-3.18%) during summer, and 0.36% (95% CI: 0.09-0.74%) during winter. There was a significantly higher percentage of hides with E. coli O157 concentration ≥ 40 CFU/100 cm(2) on hides of fed beef sampled at the processing plant (23.81%; 95% CI: 14.79-34.15%) compared to those sampled at the feedlot (1.74%; 95% CI: 0.53-3.44%). Prevalence of E. coli O157 on carcass surfaces differed by season only at the post-evisceration stage, but decreased considerably through the subsequent processing stages. Country, study setting, detection method, hide swab area, and study design were identified as significant sources of heterogeneity among studies reporting prevalence of E. coli O157 along the beef production chain. The pooled prevalence and concentration estimates from this study provide a sound and reliable microbiological basis for risk assessment modeling of E. coli O157 and other pathogens in the food chain. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Tobacco Smoke Exposure and Periodontitis Prevalence among Non-smokers in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos (HCHS/SOL)

PubMed Central

Akinkugbe, Aderonke A.; Sanders, Anne E.; Preisser, John S.; Cai, Jianwen; Salazar, Christian R.; Beck, James D.

2016-01-01

Objective To describe self-reported exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and its association with periodontitis prevalence in a diverse group of Hispanics/Latinos. Methods Data came from 8,675 lifetime non-smokers in the 2008–2011 Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. Exposure to ETS was self-reported while periodontitis was defined using the CDC/AAP criteria and the proportion of sites affected by clinical attachment level of ≥3mm or pocket depth of ≥4mm. Survey logistic regression estimated prevalence odds ratios (POR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In addition, we assessed whether greater hours of exposure to ETS in the past year was associated with greater periodontitis prevalence and lastly, we conducted a simple sensitivity analysis of ETS misclassification. Results Age-standardized prevalence estimates (95% CI) for ETS exposure and periodontitis were 57.6% (55.9, 59.4) and 39.8% (38.1, 41.4) respectively. After adjusting for confounders and periodontitis risk factors, we estimated an overall adjusted POR (95% CI) for the ETS-periodontitis association as 1.09 (0.95–1.26) with a confidence limit ratio (CLR) of 1.34. This association varied in magnitude by Hispanic/Latino background, ranging from 1.04 (0.75, 1.43 with a CLR=1.91) among Central-Americans to 1.76 (1.16, 2.66 with a CLR=2.29) in Puerto Ricans. Conclusions Previously reported associations between ETS and periodontitis appear weak in this study. However, the magnitude of the association differs according to Hispanic/Latino background. PMID:27978596

The prevalence and causes of blindness in the Sultanate of Oman: the Oman Eye Study (OES)

PubMed Central

Khandekar, R; Mohammed, A J; Negrel, A D; Al Riyami, A

2002-01-01

Aims: To estimate the magnitude and the causes of blindness through a community based nationwide survey in Oman. This was conducted in 1996–7. Methods: A stratified cluster random sampling procedure was used to select 12 400 people. The WHO/PBD standardised survey methodology was used, with suitable adaptation. The major causes of blindness were identified among those found blind. Results: A total of 11 417 people were examined (response rate 91.8%) The prevalence of blindness in the Omani population was estimated to be 1.1% (95% CI 0.9 to 1.3), blindness being defined according to the WHO Tenth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases. Prevalence of blindness was clearly related to increasing age, with estimates of 0.08% for the 0–14 age group, 0.1% for the 15–39 age group, 2.3% for the 40–59 age group, and 16.8% for the group aged 60 +. There was a statistically significant difference between the prevalence in females (1.4%) and males (0.8%). The northern and central regions had a higher prevalence of blindness (1.3% to 3%). The major causes of blindness were unoperated cataract (30.5%), trachomatous corneal opacities (23.7%), and glaucoma (11.5%) Conclusions: Despite an active eye healthcare programme, blindness due to cataract and trachoma remains a public health problem of great concern in several regions of the sultanate. These results highlight the need, when planning effective intervention strategies, to target the eye healthcare programme to the ageing population, with special emphasis on women. PMID:12185115

Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data

PubMed Central

Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

2016-01-01

Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

High fructose corn syrup and diabetes prevalence: a global perspective.

PubMed

Goran, Michael I; Ulijaszek, Stanley J; Ventura, Emily E

2013-01-01

The overall aim of this study was to evaluate, from a global and ecological perspective, the relationships between availability of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Using published resources, country-level estimates (n =43 countries) were obtained for: total sugar, HFCS and total calorie availability, obesity, two separate prevalence estimates for diabetes, prevalence estimate for impaired glucose tolerance and fasting plasma glucose. Pearson's correlations and partial correlations were conducted in order to explore associations between dietary availability and obesity and diabetes prevalence. Diabetes prevalence was 20% higher in countries with higher availability of HFCS compared to countries with low availability, and these differences were retained or strengthened after adjusting for country-level estimates of body mass index (BMI), population and gross domestic product (adjusted diabetes prevalence=8.0 vs. 6.7%, p=0.03; fasting plasma glucose=5.34 vs. 5.22 mmol/L, p=0.03) despite similarities in obesity and total sugar and calorie availability. These results suggest that countries with higher availability of HFCS have a higher prevalence of type 2 diabetes independent of obesity.

Chapter 2. Assessing the importance of zoonotic waterborne pathogens

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cryptosporidium, an apicomplexan protozoan, is reported to infect persons in 106 countries and more than 150 species of other mammals worldwide. Estimates of prevalence in humans vary greatly because reporting is not universally required, diagnostic methods vary greatly, and many persons have no acc...

Brucellosis Seropositivity in Animals and Humans in Ethiopia: A Meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Tadesse, Getachew

2016-01-01

Background The objectives of this study were to assess the heterogeneities of estimates and to estimate the seroprevalence of brucellosis in animals and humans in Ethiopia. Methods/Principal findings Data from 70 studies covering 75879 animals and 2223 humans were extracted. Rose Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and Complement Fixation Test (CFT) in series were the most frequently used serological tests. A random effects model was used to calculate pooled prevalence estimates. The overall True Prevalence of brucellosis seropositivity in goats and sheep were estimated at 5.3% (95%CI = 3.5, 7.5) and 2.7% (95%CI = 1.8, 3.4), respectively, and 2.9% for each of camels and cattle. The prevalence was higher in post-pubertal than in pre-pubertal animals (OR = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.6, 3.7) and in the pastoral than in the mixed crop-livestock production system (OR = 2.8, 95%CI = 2.5, 3.2). The incidence rates of brucellosis in humans of pastoral and sedentary system origins were estimated at 160 and 28 per 100 000 person years, respectively. Conclusions The seroprevalence of brucellosis is higher in goats than in other species. Its occurrence is evocative of its importance in the country in general and in the pastoral system in particular. Public awareness creation could reduce the transmission of Brucella spp. from animals to humans and the potential of livestock vaccination as a means of control of brucellosis needs to be assessed. PMID:27792776

Estimation of total usual calcium and vitamin D intakes in the United States.

PubMed

Bailey, Regan L; Dodd, Kevin W; Goldman, Joseph A; Gahche, Jaime J; Dwyer, Johanna T; Moshfegh, Alanna J; Sempos, Christopher T; Picciano, Mary Frances

2010-04-01

Our objective in this study was to estimate calcium intakes from food, water, dietary supplements, and antacids for U.S. citizens aged >or=1 y using NHANES 2003-2006 data and the Dietary Reference Intake panel age groupings. Similar estimates were calculated for vitamin D intake from food and dietary supplements using NHANES 2005-2006. Diet was assessed with 2 24-h recalls; dietary supplement and antacid use were determined by questionnaire. The National Cancer Institute method was used to estimate usual nutrient intake from dietary sources. The mean daily nutrient intake from supplemental sources was added to the adjusted dietary intake estimates to produce total usual nutrient intakes for calcium and vitamin D. A total of 53% of the U.S. population reported using any dietary supplement (2003-2006), 43% used calcium (2003-2006), and 37% used vitamin D (2005-2006). For users, dietary supplements provided the adequate intake (AI) recommendation for calcium intake for approximately 12% of those >or=71 y. Males and females aged 1-3 y had the highest prevalence of meeting the AI from dietary and total calcium intakes. For total vitamin D intake, males and females >or=71, and females 14-18 y had the lowest prevalence of meeting the AI. Dietary supplement use is associated with higher prevalence of groups meeting the AI for calcium and vitamin D. Monitoring usual total nutrient intake is necessary to adequately characterize and evaluate the population's nutritional status and adherence to recommendations for nutrient intake.