Slab1.0: A three-dimensional model of global subduction zone geometries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Gavin P.; Wald, David J.; Johnson, Rebecca L.

2012-01-01

We describe and present a new model of global subduction zone geometries, called Slab1.0. An extension of previous efforts to constrain the two-dimensional non-planar geometry of subduction zones around the focus of large earthquakes, Slab1.0 describes the detailed, non-planar, three-dimensional geometry of approximately 85% of subduction zones worldwide. While the model focuses on the detailed form of each slab from their trenches through the seismogenic zone, where it combines data sets from active source and passive seismology, it also continues to the limits of their seismic extent in the upper-mid mantle, providing a uniform approach to the definition of the entire seismically active slab geometry. Examples are shown for two well-constrained global locations; models for many other regions are available and can be freely downloaded in several formats from our new Slab1.0 website, http://on.doi.gov/d9ARbS. We describe improvements in our two-dimensional geometry constraint inversion, including the use of `average' active source seismic data profiles in the shallow trench regions where data are otherwise lacking, derived from the interpolation between other active source seismic data along-strike in the same subduction zone. We include several analyses of the uncertainty and robustness of our three-dimensional interpolation methods. In addition, we use the filtered, subduction-related earthquake data sets compiled to build Slab1.0 in a reassessment of previous analyses of the deep limit of the thrust interface seismogenic zone for all subduction zones included in our global model thus far, concluding that the width of these seismogenic zones is on average 30% larger than previous studies have suggested.

Mapping the global football field: a sociological model of transnational forces within the world game.

PubMed

Giulianotti, Richard; Robertson, Roland

2012-06-01

This paper provides a sociological model of the key transnational political and economic forces that are shaping the 'global football field'. The model draws upon, and significantly extends, the theory of the 'global field' developed previously by Robertson. The model features four quadrants, each of which contains a dominant operating principle, an 'elemental reference point', and an 'elemental theme'. The quadrants contain, first, neo-liberalism, associated with the individual and elite football clubs; second, neo-mercantilism, associated with nation-states and national football systems; third, international relations, associated with international governing bodies; and fourth, global civil society, associated with diverse institutions that pursue human development and/or social justice. We examine some of the interactions and tensions between the major institutional and ideological forces across the four quadrants. We conclude by examining how the weakest quadrant, featuring global civil society, may gain greater prominence within football. In broad terms, we argue that our four-fold model may be utilized to map and to examine other substantive research fields with reference to globalization. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2012.

Global assessment of ocean carbon export by combining satellite observations and food-web models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, D. A.; Buesseler, K. O.; Doney, S. C.; Sailley, S. F.; Behrenfeld, M. J.; Boyd, P. W.

2014-03-01

The export of organic carbon from the surface ocean by sinking particles is an important, yet highly uncertain, component of the global carbon cycle. Here we introduce a mechanistic assessment of the global ocean carbon export using satellite observations, including determinations of net primary production and the slope of the particle size spectrum, to drive a food-web model that estimates the production of sinking zooplankton feces and algal aggregates comprising the sinking particle flux at the base of the euphotic zone. The synthesis of observations and models reveals fundamentally different and ecologically consistent regional-scale patterns in export and export efficiency not found in previous global carbon export assessments. The model reproduces regional-scale particle export field observations and predicts a climatological mean global carbon export from the euphotic zone of 6 Pg C yr-1. Global export estimates show small variation (typically < 10%) to factor of 2 changes in model parameter values. The model is also robust to the choices of the satellite data products used and enables interannual changes to be quantified. The present synthesis of observations and models provides a path for quantifying the ocean's biological pump.

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria's investments in harm reduction through the rounds-based funding model (2002-2014).

PubMed

Bridge, Jamie; Hunter, Benjamin M; Albers, Eliot; Cook, Catherine; Guarinieri, Mauro; Lazarus, Jeffrey V; MacAllister, Jack; McLean, Susie; Wolfe, Daniel

2016-01-01

Harm reduction is an evidence-based, effective response to HIV transmission and other harms faced by people who inject drugs, and is explicitly supported by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. In spite of this, people who inject drugs continue to have poor and inequitable access to these services and face widespread stigma and discrimination. In 2013, the Global Fund launched a new funding model-signalling the end of the previous rounds-based model that had operated since its founding in 2002. This study updates previous analyses to assess Global Fund investments in harm reduction interventions for the duration of the rounds-based model, from 2002 to 2014. Global Fund HIV and TB/HIV grant documents from 2002 to 2014 were reviewed to identify grants that contained activities for people who inject drugs. Data were collected from detailed grant budgets, and relevant budget lines were recorded and analysed to determine the resources allocated to different interventions that were specifically targeted at people who inject drugs. 151 grants for 58 countries, plus one regional proposal, contained activities targeting people who inject drugs-for a total investment of US$ 620 million. Two-thirds of this budgeted amount was for interventions in the "comprehensive package" defined by the United Nations. 91% of the identified amount was for Eastern Europe and Asia. This study represents an updated, comprehensive assessment of Global Fund investments in harm reduction from its founding (2002) until the start of the new funding model (2014). It also highlights the overall shortfall of harm reduction funding, with the estimated global need being US$ 2.3 billion for harm reduction in 2015 alone. Using this baseline, the Global Fund must carefully monitor its new funding model and ensure that investments in harm reduction are maintained or scaled-up. There are widespread concerns regarding the withdrawal from middle-income countries where harm reduction remains essential and unfunded through other sources: for example, 15% of the identified investments were for countries which are now ineligible for Global Fund support. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementation of the MEGAN (v2.1) biogenic emission model in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Stanelle, Tanja; Schröder, Sabine; Siegenthaler, Colombe; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Schultz, Martin G.

2017-02-01

A biogenic emission scheme based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 (Guenther et al., 2012) has been integrated into the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model in order to calculate the emissions from terrestrial vegetation of 32 compounds. The estimated annual global total for the reference simulation is 634 Tg C yr-1 (simulation period 2000-2012). Isoprene is the main contributor to the average emission total, accounting for 66 % (417 Tg C yr-1), followed by several monoterpenes (12 %), methanol (7 %), acetone (3.6 %), and ethene (3.6 %). Regionally, most of the high annual emissions are found to be associated with tropical regions and tropical vegetation types. In order to evaluate the implementation of the biogenic model in ECHAM-HAMMOZ, global and regional biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions of the reference simulation were compared to previous published experiment results with MEGAN. Several sensitivity simulations were performed to study the impact of different model input and parameters related to the vegetation cover and the ECHAM6 climate. BVOC emissions obtained here are within the range of previous published estimates. The large range of emission estimates can be attributed to the use of different input data and empirical coefficients within different setups of MEGAN. The biogenic model shows a high sensitivity to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions and associated emission factors for most of the compounds. The global emission impact for isoprene is about -9 %, but reaches +75 % for α-pinene when switching from global emission factor maps to PFT-specific emission factor distributions. The highest sensitivity of isoprene emissions is calculated when considering soil moisture impact, with a global decrease of 12.5 % when the soil moisture activity factor is included in the model parameterization. Nudging ECHAM6 climate towards ERA-Interim reanalysis has an impact on the biogenic emissions, slightly lowering the global total emissions and their interannual variability.

Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects and Heating in the New Era of Active Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matus, Alexander V.

Atmospheric aerosols impact the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing solar radiation. Despite their impacts, aerosols remain a significant source of uncertainty in our ability to predict future climate. Multi-sensor observations from the A-Train satellite constellation provide valuable observational constraints necessary to reduce uncertainties in model simulations of aerosol direct effects. This study will discuss recent efforts to quantify aerosol direct effects globally and regionally using CloudSat's radiative fluxes and heating rates product. Improving upon previous techniques, this approach leverages the capability of CloudSat and CALIPSO to retrieve vertically resolved estimates of cloud and aerosol properties critical for accurately evaluating the radiative impacts of aerosols. We estimate the global annual mean aerosol direct effect to be -1.9 +/- 0.6 W/m2, which is in better agreement with previously published estimates from global models than previous satellite-based estimates. Detailed comparisons against a fully coupled simulation of the Community Earth System Model, however, reveal that this agreement on the global annual mean masks large regional discrepancies between modeled and observed estimates of aerosol direct effects related to model biases in cloud cover. A low bias in stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeastern Pacific Ocean, for example, leads to an overestimate of the radiative effects of marine aerosols. Stratocumulus clouds over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean can enhance aerosol absorption by 50% allowing aerosol layers to remain self-lofted in an area of subsidence. Aerosol heating is found to peak at 0.6 +/- 0.3 K/day an altitude of 4 km in September when biomass burning reaches a maximum. Finally, the contributions of observed aerosols components are evaluated to estimate the direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol forcing is computed using satellite-based radiative kernels that describe the sensitivity of shortwave fluxes in response to aerosol optical depth. The direct radiative forcing is estimated to be -0.21 W/m2 with the largest contributions from pollution that is partially offset by a positive forcing from smoke aerosols. The results from these analyses provide new benchmarks on the global radiative effects of aerosols and offer new insights for improving future assessments.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.

PubMed

Noever, D A; Brittain, A; Matsos, H C; Baskaran, S; Obenhuber, D

1996-01-01

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.

Towards a global accurate model for horizontal and vertical elastic response of the Earth to seasonal hydrology derived from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanard, K.; Fleitout, L.; Calais, E.; Barbot, S.; Avouac, J. P.

2016-12-01

Elastic deformation of the Earth induced by seasonal variations in hydrology is now well established. We compute the vertical and horizontal deformation induced by large variations of continental water storage at a set of 195 globally distributed continuous Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations. Seasonal loading is derived from the Gravity and Recovery Climate experiment (GRACE) equivalent water height data, where we first account for non observable degree-1 components using previous results (Swenson et al., 2010). While the vertical displacements are well predicted by the model, the horizontal components are systematically underpredicted and out-of- phase with the observations. This global result confirms previous difficulties to predict horizontal seasonal site positions at a regional scale. We discuss possible contributions to this misfit (thermal expansion, draconitic effects, etc.) and show a dramatic improvement when we derive degree-one deformation plus reference frame differences between model and observations. The fit in phase and amplitude of the seasonal deformation model to the horizontal GPS measurements is improved and the fit to the vertical component is not affected. However, the amplitude of global seasonal horizontal displacement remains slightly underpredicted. We explore several hypothesis including the validity of a purely elastic model derived from seismic estimates at an annual time scale. We show that mantle volume variations due to mineral phase transitions may play a role in the seasonal deformation and, as a by-product, use this seasonal deformation to provide a lower bound of the transient astenospheric viscosity. Our study aims at providing an accurate model for horizontal and vertical seasonal deformation of the Earth induced by variations in surface hydrology derived from GRACE.

Ionospheric Modelling using GPS to Calibrate the MWA. II: Regional Ionospheric Modelling using GPS and GLONASS to Estimate Ionospheric Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arora, B. S.; Morgan, J.; Ord, S. M.; Tingay, S. J.; Bell, M.; Callingham, J. R.; Dwarakanath, K. S.; For, B.-Q.; Hancock, P.; Hindson, L.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kapińska, A. D.; Lenc, E.; McKinley, B.; Offringa, A. R.; Procopio, P.; Staveley-Smith, L.; Wayth, R. B.; Wu, C.; Zheng, Q.

2016-07-01

We estimate spatial gradients in the ionosphere using the Global Positioning System and GLONASS (Russian global navigation system) observations, utilising data from multiple Global Positioning System stations in the vicinity of Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory. In previous work, the ionosphere was characterised using a single-station to model the ionosphere as a single layer of fixed height and this was compared with ionospheric data derived from radio astronomy observations obtained from the Murchison Widefield Array. Having made improvements to our data quality (via cycle slip detection and repair) and incorporating data from the GLONASS system, we now present a multi-station approach. These two developments significantly improve our modelling of the ionosphere. We also explore the effects of a variable-height model. We conclude that modelling the small-scale features in the ionosphere that have been observed with the MWA will require a much denser network of Global Navigation Satellite System stations than is currently available at the Murchison Radio-astronomy Observatory.

A Framework for Effective Assessment of Model-based Projections of Biodiversity to Inform the Next Generation of Global Conservation Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers, B.; Beard, T. D.; Weiskopf, S. R.; Jackson, S. T.; Tittensor, D.; Harfoot, M.; Senay, G. B.; Casey, K.; Lenton, T. M.; Leidner, A. K.; Ruane, A. C.; Ferrier, S.; Serbin, S.; Matsuda, H.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Rosa, I.

2017-12-01

Biodiversity and ecosystems services underpin political targets for the conservation of biodiversity; however, previous incarnations of these biodiversity-related targets have not relied on integrated model based projections of possible outcomes based on climate and land use change. Although a few global biodiversity models are available, most biodiversity models lie along a continuum of geography and components of biodiversity. Model-based projections of the future of global biodiversity are critical to support policymakers in the development of informed global conservation targets, but the scientific community lacks a clear strategy for integrating diverse data streams in developing, and evaluating the performance of, such biodiversity models. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a framework for ongoing testing and refinement of model-based projections of biodiversity trends and change, by linking a broad variety of biodiversity models with data streams generated by advances in remote sensing, coupled with new and emerging in-situ observation technologies to inform development of essential biodiversity variables, future global biodiversity targets, and indicators. Our two main objectives are to (1) develop a framework for model testing and refining projections of a broad range of biodiversity models, focusing on global models, through the integration of diverse data streams and (2) identify the realistic outputs that can be developed and determine coupled approaches using remote sensing and new and emerging in-situ observations (e.g., metagenomics) to better inform the next generation of global biodiversity targets.

Extending Structural Analyses of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale to Consider Criterion-Related Validity: Can Composite Self-Esteem Scores Be Good Enough?

PubMed

Donnellan, M Brent; Ackerman, Robert A; Brecheen, Courtney

2016-01-01

Although the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES) is the most widely used measure of global self-esteem in the literature, there are ongoing disagreements about its factor structure. This methodological debate informs how the measure should be used in substantive research. Using a sample of 1,127 college students, we test the overall fit of previously specified models for the RSES, including a newly proposed bifactor solution (McKay, Boduszek, & Harvey, 2014 ). We extend previous work by evaluating how various latent factors from these structural models are related to a set of criterion variables frequently studied in the self-esteem literature. A strict unidimensional model poorly fit the data, whereas models that accounted for correlations between negatively and positively keyed items tended to fit better. However, global factors from viable structural models had similar levels of association with criterion variables and with the pattern of results obtained with a composite global self-esteem variable calculated from observed scores. Thus, we did not find compelling evidence that different structural models had substantive implications, thereby reducing (but not eliminating) concerns about the integrity of the self-esteem literature based on overall composite scores for the RSES.

Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Alexander, Peter; Rabin, Sam; Anthoni, Peter; Henry, Roslyn; Pugh, Thomas A M; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut

2018-02-27

Land use contributes to environmental change, but is also influenced by such changes. Climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels' changes alter agricultural crop productivity, plant water requirements and irrigation water availability. The global food system needs to respond and adapt to these changes, for example, by altering agricultural practices, including the crop types or intensity of management, or shifting cultivated areas within and between countries. As impacts and associated adaptation responses are spatially specific, understanding the land use adaptation to environmental changes requires crop productivity representations that capture spatial variations. The impact of variation in management practices, including fertiliser and irrigation rates, also needs to be considered. To date, models of global land use have selected agricultural expansion or intensification levels using relatively aggregate spatial representations, typically at a regional level, that are not able to characterise the details of these spatially differentiated responses. Here, we show results from a novel global modelling approach using more detailed biophysically derived yield responses to inputs with greater spatial specificity than previously possible. The approach couples a dynamic global vegetative model (LPJ-GUESS) with a new land use and food system model (PLUMv2), with results benchmarked against historical land use change from 1970. Land use outcomes to 2100 were explored, suggesting that increased intensity of climate forcing reduces the inputs required for food production, due to the fertilisation and enhanced water use efficiency effects of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, but requiring substantial shifts in the global and local patterns of production. The results suggest that adaptation in the global agriculture and food system has substantial capacity to diminish the negative impacts and gain greater benefits from positive outcomes of climate change. Consequently, agricultural expansion and intensification may be lower than found in previous studies where spatial details and processes consideration were more constrained. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era.

PubMed

Kopp, Robert E; Kemp, Andrew C; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Gehrels, W Roland; Hay, Carling C; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Morrow, Eric D; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-03-15

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.

Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

PubMed Central

Kopp, Robert E.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Bittermann, Klaus; Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hay, Carling C.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Morrow, Eric D.; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2016-01-01

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0–700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000–1400 CE is associated with ∼0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability P≥0.95) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely (P=0.95) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed 13.8±1.5 cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. PMID:26903659

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-05-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing-canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Coupled local facilitation and global hydrologic inhibition drive landscape geometry in a patterned peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, S.; Kaplan, D. A.; Casey, S.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

2015-01-01

Self-organized landscape patterning can arise in response to multiple processes. Discriminating among alternative patterning mechanisms, particularly where experimental manipulations are untenable, requires process-based models. Previous modeling studies have attributed patterning in the Everglades (Florida, USA) to sediment redistribution and anisotropic soil hydraulic properties. In this work, we tested an alternate theory, the self-organizing canal (SOC) hypothesis, by developing a cellular automata model that simulates pattern evolution via local positive feedbacks (i.e., facilitation) coupled with a global negative feedback based on hydrology. The model is forced by global hydroperiod that drives stochastic transitions between two patch types: ridge (higher elevation) and slough (lower elevation). We evaluated model performance using multiple criteria based on six statistical and geostatistical properties observed in reference portions of the Everglades landscape: patch density, patch anisotropy, semivariogram ranges, power-law scaling of ridge areas, perimeter area fractal dimension, and characteristic pattern wavelength. Model results showed strong statistical agreement with reference landscapes, but only when anisotropically acting local facilitation was coupled with hydrologic global feedback, for which several plausible mechanisms exist. Critically, the model correctly generated fractal landscapes that had no characteristic pattern wavelength, supporting the invocation of global rather than scale-specific negative feedbacks.

Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

2014-11-01

Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling communities.

Academic Self-Concept: Modeling and Measuring for Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardy, Graham

2014-01-01

In this study, the author developed a model to describe academic self-concept (ASC) in science and validated an instrument for its measurement. Unlike previous models of science ASC, which envisage science as a homogenous single global construct, this model took a multidimensional view by conceiving science self-concept as possessing distinctive…

History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance

PubMed Central

Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R.

2017-01-01

Ilona Kickbusch’s thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." PMID:28812808

MERIT DEM: A new high-accuracy global digital elevation model and its merit to global hydrodynamic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, D.; Ikeshima, D.; Neal, J. C.; O'Loughlin, F.; Sampson, C. C.; Kanae, S.; Bates, P. D.

2017-12-01

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are fundamental data for flood modelling. While precise airborne DEMs are available in developed regions, most parts of the world rely on spaceborne DEMs which include non-negligible height errors. Here we show the most accurate global DEM to date at 90m resolution by eliminating major error components from the SRTM and AW3D DEMs. Using multiple satellite data and multiple filtering techniques, we addressed absolute bias, stripe noise, speckle noise and tree height bias from spaceborne DEMs. After the error removal, significant improvements were found in flat regions where height errors were larger than topography variability, and landscapes features such as river networks and hill-valley structures became clearly represented. We found the topography slope of the previous DEMs was largely distorted in most of world major floodplains (e.g. Ganges, Nile, Niger, Mekong) and swamp forests (e.g. Amazon, Congo, Vasyugan). The developed DEM will largely reduce the uncertainty in both global and regional flood modelling.

Prediction of pesticide acute toxicity using two-dimensional chemical descriptors and target species classification

EPA Science Inventory

Previous modelling of the median lethal dose (oral rat LD50) has indicated that local class-based models yield better correlations than global models. We evaluated the hypothesis that dividing the dataset by pesticidal mechanisms would improve prediction accuracy. A linear discri...

Model Parameter Estimation Using Ensemble Data Assimilation: A Case with the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model NICAM and the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsuki, Shunji; Terasaki, Koji; Yashiro, Hasashi; Tomita, Hirofumi; Satoh, Masaki; Miyoshi, Takemasa

2017-04-01

This study aims to improve precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models through effective use of satellite-derived precipitation data. Kotsuki et al. (2016, JGR-A) successfully improved the precipitation forecasts by assimilating the Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA)'s Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) data into the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at 112-km horizontal resolution. Kotsuki et al. mitigated the non-Gaussianity of the precipitation variables by the Gaussian transform method for observed and forecasted precipitation using the previous 30-day precipitation data. This study extends the previous study by Kotsuki et al. and explores an online estimation of model parameters using ensemble data assimilation. We choose two globally-uniform parameters, one is the cloud-to-rain auto-conversion parameter of the Berry's scheme for large scale condensation and the other is the relative humidity threshold of the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization scheme. We perform the online-estimation of the two model parameters with an ensemble transform Kalman filter by assimilating the GSMaP precipitation data. The estimated parameters improve the analyzed and forecasted mixing ratio in the lower troposphere. Therefore, the parameter estimation would be a useful technique to improve the NWP models and their forecasts. This presentation will include the most recent progress up to the time of the symposium.

Development of an advanced eco-hydrologic and biogeochemical coupling model aimed at clarifying the missing role of inland water in the global biogeochemical cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Tadanobu

2017-04-01

Recent research showed that inland water including rivers, lakes, and groundwater may play some role in carbon cycling, although its contribution has remained uncertain due to limited amount of reliable data available. In this study, the author developed an advanced model coupling eco-hydrology and biogeochemical cycle (National Integrated Catchment-based Eco-hydrology (NICE)-BGC). This new model incorporates complex coupling of hydrologic-carbon cycle in terrestrial-aquatic linkages and interplay between inorganic and organic carbon during the whole process of carbon cycling. The model could simulate both horizontal transports (export from land to inland water 2.01 ± 1.98 Pg C/yr and transported to ocean 1.13 ± 0.50 Pg C/yr) and vertical fluxes (degassing 0.79 ± 0.38 Pg C/yr, and sediment storage 0.20 ± 0.09 Pg C/yr) in major rivers in good agreement with previous researches, which was an improved estimate of carbon flux from previous studies. The model results also showed global net land flux simulated by NICE-BGC (-1.05 ± 0.62 Pg C/yr) decreased carbon sink a little in comparison with revised Lund-Potsdam-Jena Wetland Hydrology and Methane (-1.79 ± 0.64 Pg C/yr) and previous materials (-2.8 to -1.4 Pg C/yr). This is attributable to CO2 evasion and lateral carbon transport explicitly included in the model, and the result suggests that most previous researches have generally overestimated the accumulation of terrestrial carbon and underestimated the potential for lateral transport. The results further implied difference between inverse techniques and budget estimates suggested can be explained to some extent by a net source from inland water. NICE-BGC would play an important role in reevaluation of greenhouse gas budget of the biosphere, quantification of hot spots, and bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches to global carbon budget.

Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07) Applications for the NASA Constellation Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leslie, Fred W.; Justus, C. G.

2008-01-01

Engineering models of the atmosphere are used extensively by the aerospace community for design issues related to vehicle ascent and descent. The Earth Global Reference Atmosphere Model version 2007 (Earth-GRAM07) is the latest in this series and includes a number of new features. Like previous versions, Earth-GRAM07 provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthly- and geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0 km to 27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. For altitudes between 20 km and 120 km, the model uses data from the Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP). Above 120 km, EarthGRAM07 now provides users with a choice of three thermosphere models: the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-2007) model; the Jacchia-Bowman 2006 thermosphere model (JB2006); and the Naval Research Labs Mass Spectrometer, Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRL MSIS E-OO) with the associated Harmonic Wind Model (HWM-93). In place of these datasets, Earth-GRAM07 has the option of using the new 2006 revised Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data, the earlier (1983) RRA data, or the user may also provide their own data as an auxiliary profile. Refinements of the perturbation model are also discussed which include wind shears more similar to those observed at the Kennedy Space Center than the previous version Earth-GRAM99.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

An effective automatic procedure for testing parameter identifiability of HIV/AIDS models.

PubMed

Saccomani, Maria Pia

2011-08-01

Realistic HIV models tend to be rather complex and many recent models proposed in the literature could not yet be analyzed by traditional identifiability testing techniques. In this paper, we check a priori global identifiability of some of these nonlinear HIV models taken from the recent literature, by using a differential algebra algorithm based on previous work of the author. The algorithm is implemented in a software tool, called DAISY (Differential Algebra for Identifiability of SYstems), which has been recently released (DAISY is freely available on the web site http://www.dei.unipd.it/~pia/ ). The software can be used to automatically check global identifiability of (linear and) nonlinear models described by polynomial or rational differential equations, thus providing a general and reliable tool to test global identifiability of several HIV models proposed in the literature. It can be used by researchers with a minimum of mathematical background.

ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

PubMed Central

Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

2015-01-01

Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

Assimilative modeling of low latitude ionosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pi, Xiaoqing; Wang, Chunining; Hajj, George A.; Rosen, I. Gary; Wilson, Brian D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

2004-01-01

In this paper we present an observation system simulation experiment for modeling low-latitude ionosphere using a 3-dimensional (3-D) global assimilative ionospheric model (GAIM). The experiment is conducted to test the effectiveness of GAIM with a 4-D variational approach (4DVAR) in estimation of the ExB drift and thermospheric wind in the magnetic meridional planes simultaneously for all longitude or local time sectors. The operational Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites and the ground-based global GPS receiver network of the International GPS Service are used in the experiment as the data assimilation source. 'The optimization of the ionospheric state (electron density) modeling is performed through a nonlinear least-squares minimization process that adjusts the dynamical forces to reduce the difference between the modeled and observed slant total electron content in the entire modeled region. The present experiment for multiple force estimations reinforces our previous assessment made through single driver estimations conducted for the ExB drift only.

Global stability results for a generalized Lotka-Volterra system with distributed delays. Applications to predator-prey and to epidemic systems.

PubMed

Beretta, E; Capasso, V; Rinaldi, F

1988-01-01

The paper contains an extension of the general ODE system proposed in previous papers by the same authors, to include distributed time delays in the interaction terms. The new system describes a large class of Lotka-Volterra like population models and epidemic models with continuous time delays. Sufficient conditions for the boundedness of solutions and for the global asymptotic stability of nontrivial equilibrium solutions are given. A detailed analysis of the epidemic system is given with respect to the conditions for global stability. For a relevant subclass of these systems an existence criterion for steady states is also given.

An Open-Access Modeled Passenger Flow Matrix for the Global Air Network in 2010

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J.; Fik, Timothy J.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data. PMID:23691194

An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J; Fik, Timothy J; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

An evaluation of gravity waves and gravity wave sources in the Southern Hemisphere in a 7 km global climate simulation.

PubMed

Holt, L A; Alexander, M J; Coy, L; Liu, C; Molod, A; Putman, W; Pawson, S

2017-07-01

In this study, gravity waves (GWs) in the high-resolution GEOS-5 Nature Run are first evaluated with respect to satellite and other model results. Southern Hemisphere winter sources of non-orographic GWs in the model are then investigated by linking measures of tropospheric non-orographic gravity wave generation tied to precipitation and frontogenesis with absolute gravity wave momentum flux in the lower stratosphere. Finally, non-orographic GW momentum flux is compared to orographic gravity wave momentum flux and compared to previous estimates. The results show that the global patterns in GW amplitude, horizontal wavelength, and propagation direction are realistic compared to observations. However, as in other global models, the amplitudes are weaker and horizontal wavelengths longer than observed. The global patterns in absolute GW momentum flux also agree well with previous model and observational estimates. The evaluation of model non-orographic GW sources in the Southern Hemisphere winter shows that strong intermittent precipitation (greater than 10 mm h -1 ) is associated with GW momentum flux over the South Pacific, whereas frontogenesis and less intermittent, lower precipitation rates (less than 10 mm h -1 ) are associated with GW momentum flux near 60°S. In the model, orographic GWs contribute almost exclusively to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 70 and 75°S, while non-orographic waves dominate at 60°S, and non-orographic GWs contribute a third to a peak in zonal mean momentum flux between 25 and 30°S.

Correcting Model Fit Criteria for Small Sample Latent Growth Models with Incomplete Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeish, Daniel; Harring, Jeffrey R.

2017-01-01

To date, small sample problems with latent growth models (LGMs) have not received the amount of attention in the literature as related mixed-effect models (MEMs). Although many models can be interchangeably framed as a LGM or a MEM, LGMs uniquely provide criteria to assess global data-model fit. However, previous studies have demonstrated poor…

Global Kalman filter approaches to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments.

PubMed

Nogueira, Samuel L; Lambrecht, Stefan; Inoue, Roberto S; Bortole, Magdo; Montagnoli, Arlindo N; Moreno, Juan C; Rocon, Eduardo; Terra, Marco H; Siqueira, Adriano A G; Pons, Jose L

2017-05-16

In this paper we propose the use of global Kalman filters (KFs) to estimate absolute angles of lower limb segments. Standard approaches adopt KFs to improve the performance of inertial sensors based on individual link configurations. In consequence, for a multi-body system like a lower limb exoskeleton, the inertial measurements of one link (e.g., the shank) are not taken into account in other link angle estimations (e.g., foot). Global KF approaches, on the other hand, correlate the collective contribution of all signals from lower limb segments observed in the state-space model through the filtering process. We present a novel global KF (matricial global KF) relying only on inertial sensor data, and validate both this KF and a previously presented global KF (Markov Jump Linear Systems, MJLS-based KF), which fuses data from inertial sensors and encoders from an exoskeleton. We furthermore compare both methods to the commonly used local KF. The results indicate that the global KFs performed significantly better than the local KF, with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of respectively 0.942° for the MJLS-based KF, 1.167° for the matrical global KF, and 1.202° for the local KFs. Including the data from the exoskeleton encoders also resulted in a significant increase in performance. The results indicate that the current practice of using KFs based on local models is suboptimal. Both the presented KF based on inertial sensor data, as well our previously presented global approach fusing inertial sensor data with data from exoskeleton encoders, were superior to local KFs. We therefore recommend to use global KFs for gait analysis and exoskeleton control.

Presentation a New Model to Measure National Power of the Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hafeznia, Mohammad Reza; Hadi Zarghani, Seyed; Ahmadipor, Zahra; Roknoddin Eftekhari, Abdelreza

In this research, based on the assessment of previous models for the evaluation of national power, a new model is presented to measure national power; it is much better than previous models. Paying attention to all the aspects of national power (economical, social, cultural, political, military, astro-space, territorial, scientific and technological and transnational), paying attention to the usage of 87 factors, stressing the usage of new and strategically compatible variables to the current time are some of the benefits of this model. Also using the Delphi method and referring to the opinions of experts about determining the role and importance of variables affecting national power, the option of drawing out the global power structure are some the other advantages that this model has compared to previous ones.

Determination of Global Stability of the Slosh Motion in a Spacecraft via Num Erical Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Ja-Young

2003-12-01

The global stability of the attitude motion of a spin-stabilized space vehicle is investigated by performing numerical experiment. In the previous study, a stationary solution and a particular resonant condition for a given model were found by using analytical method but failed to represent the system stability over parameter values near and off the stationary points. Accordingly, as an extension of the previous work, this study performs numerical experiment to investigate the stability of the system across the parameter space and determines stable and unstable regions of the design parameters of the system.

Radiative Effect of Clouds on Tropospheric Chemistry in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Pierce, Robert B.; Norris, Peter; Platnick, Steven E.; Chen, Gao; Logan, Jennifer A.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Evans, Mat J.; Kittaka, Chieko;

Method and Early Results of Applying the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) in the Third Global Reanalysis of NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, J.; Mitchell, K.; Wei, H.; Yang, R.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J.; Xie, P.

2008-05-01

Over the past several years, the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the U.S. National Weather Service has developed a Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). For its computational infrastructure, the GLDAS applies the NASA Land Information System (LIS), developed by the Hydrological Science Branch of NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The land model utilized in the NCEP GLDAS is the NCEP Noah Land Surface Model (Noah LSM). This presentation will 1) describe how the GLDAS component has been included in the development of NCEP's third global reanalysis (with special attention to the input sources of global precipitation), and 2) will present results from the GLDAS component of pilot tests of the new NCEP global reanalysis. Unlike NCEP's past two global reanalysis projects, this new NCEP global reanalysis includes both a global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) and a global ocean data assimilation system (GODAS). The new global reanalysis will span 30-years (1979-2008) and will include a companion realtime operational component. The atmospheric, ocean, and land states of this global reanalysis will provide the initial conditions for NCEP's 3rd- generation global coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS). NCEP is now preparing to launch a 28-year seasonal reforecast project with its new CFS, to provide the reforecast foundation for operational NCEP seasonal climate forecasts using the new CFS. Together, the new global reanalysis and companion CFS reforecasts constitute what NCEP calls the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) project. Compared to the previous two generations of NCEP global reanalysis, the hallmark of the GLDAS component of CFSRR is GLDAS use of global analyses of observed precipitation to drive the land surface component of the reanalysis (rather than the typical reanalysis approach of using precipitation from the assimilating background atmospheric model). Specifically, the GLDAS merges two global analyses of observed precipitation produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NCEP, as follows: 1) a new CPC daily gauge-only land-only global precipitation analysis at 0.5-degree resolution and 2) the well-known CPC CMAP global 2.0 x 2.5 degree 5-day precipitation analysis, which utilizes satellite estimates of precipitation, as well as some gauge observations. The presentation will describe how these two analyses are merged with latitude-dependent weights that favor the gauge-only analysis in mid-latitudes and the satellite-dominated CMAP analysis in tropical latitudes. Finally, we will show some impacts of using GLDAS to initialize the land states of seasonal CFS reforecasts, versus using the previous generation of NCEP global reanalysis as the source for CFS initial land states.

Impact of mesophyll diffusion on estimated global land CO 2 fertilization

DOE PAGES

Sun, Ying; Gu, Lianhong; Dickinson, Robert E.; ...

2014-10-13

In C 3 plants, CO 2 concentrations drop considerably along mesophyll diffusion pathways from substomatal cavities to chloroplasts where CO 2 assimilation occurs. Global carbon cycle models have not explicitly represented this internal drawdown and so overestimate CO 2 available for carboxylation and underestimate photosynthetic responsiveness to atmospheric CO 2. An explicit consideration of mesophyll diffusion increases the modeled cumulative CO 2 fertilization effect (CFE) for global gross primary production (GPP) from 915 PgC to 1057 PgC for the period of 1901 to 2010. This increase represents a 16% correction, large enough to explain the persistent overestimation of growth ratesmore » of historical atmospheric CO 2 by Earth System Models. Without this correction, the CFE for global GPP is underestimated by 0.05 PgC yr -1ppm -1. This finding implies that the contemporary terrestrial biosphere is more CO 2-limited than previously thought.« less

Multi-Decadal Variation of Aerosols: Sources, Transport, and Climate Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Bian, Huisheng; Streets, David

2008-01-01

We present a global model study of multi-decadal changes of atmospheric aerosols and their climate effects using a global chemistry transport model along with the near-term to longterm data records. We focus on a 27-year time period of satellite era from 1980 to 2006, during which a suite of aerosol data from satellite observations, ground-based measurements, and intensive field experiments have become available. We will use the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model, which involves a time-varying, comprehensive global emission dataset that we put together in our previous investigations and will be improved/extended in this project. This global emission dataset includes emissions of aerosols and their precursors from fuel combustion, biomass burning, volcanic eruptions, and other sources from 1980 to the present. Using the model and satellite data, we will analyze (1) the long-term global and regional aerosol trends and their relationship to the changes of aerosol and precursor emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources, (2) the intercontinental source-receptor relationships controlled by emission, transport pathway, and climate variability.

Measuring global monopole velocities, one by one

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lopez-Eiguren, Asier; Urrestilla, Jon; Achúcarro, Ana, E-mail: asier.lopez@ehu.eus, E-mail: jon.urrestilla@ehu.eus, E-mail: achucar@lorentz.leidenuniv.nl

We present an estimation of the average velocity of a network of global monopoles in a cosmological setting using large numerical simulations. In order to obtain the value of the velocity, we improve some already known methods, and present a new one. This new method estimates individual global monopole velocities in a network, by means of detecting each monopole position in the lattice and following the path described by each one of them. Using our new estimate we can settle an open question previously posed in the literature: velocity-dependent one-scale (VOS) models for global monopoles predict two branches of scalingmore » solutions, one with monopoles moving at subluminal speeds and one with monopoles moving at luminal speeds. Previous attempts to estimate monopole velocities had large uncertainties and were not able to settle that question. Our simulations find no evidence of a luminal branch. We also estimate the values of the parameters of the VOS model. With our new method we can also study the microphysics of the complicated dynamics of individual monopoles. Finally we use our large simulation volume to compare the results from the different estimator methods, as well as to asses the validity of the numerical approximations made.« less

Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century

PubMed Central

Emanuel, Kerry A.

2013-01-01

A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(104)] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950–2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones. PMID:23836646

Fast Magnetotail Reconnection: Challenge to Global MHD Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Toth, G.; de Zeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

2005-05-01

Representation of fast magnetotail reconnection rates during substorm onset is one of the major challenges to global MHD modeling. Our previous comparative study of collisionless magnetic reconnection in GEM Challenge geometry demonstrated that the reconnection rate is controlled by ion nongyrotropic behavior near the reconnection site and that it can be described in terms of nongyrotropic corrections to the magnetic induction equation. To further test the approach we performed MHD simulations with nongyrotropic corrections of forced reconnection for the Newton Challenge setup. As a next step we employ the global MHD code BATSRUS and test different methods to model fast magnetotail reconnection rates by introducing non-ideal corrections to the induction equation in terms of nongyrotropic corrections, spatially localized resistivity, or current dependent resistivity. The BATSRUS adaptive grid structure allows to perform global simulations with spatial resolution near the reconnection site comparable with spatial resolution of local MHD simulations for the Newton Challenge. We select solar wind conditions which drive the accumulation of magnetic field in the tail lobes and subsequent magnetic reconnection and energy release. Testing the ability of global MHD models to describe magnetotail evolution during substroms is one of the elements of science based validation efforts at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

A Global Ocean Tide Model From TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry: GOT99.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Richard D.

1999-01-01

Goddard Ocean Tide model GOT99.2 is a new solution for the amplitudes and phases of the global oceanic tides, based on over six years of sea-surface height measurements by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite altimeter. Comparison with deep-ocean tide-gauge measurements show that this new tidal solution is an improvement over previous global models, with accuracies for the main semidiurnal lunar constituent M2 now below 1.5 cm (deep water only). The new solution benefits from use of prior hydrodynamic models, several in shallow and inland seas as well as the global finite-element model FES94.1. This report describes some of the data processing details involved in handling the altimetry, and it provides a comprehensive set of global cotidal charts of the resulting solutions. Various derived tidal charts are also provided, including tidal loading deformation charts, tidal gravimetric charts, and tidal current velocity (or transport) charts. Finally, low-degree spherical harmonic coefficients are computed by numerical quadrature and are tabulated for the major short-period tides; these are useful for a variety of geodetic and geophysical purposes, especially in combination with similar estimates from satellite laser ranging.

Large-scale hydrological modeling for calculating water stress indices: implications of improved spatiotemporal resolution, surface-groundwater differentiation, and uncertainty characterization.

PubMed

Scherer, Laura; Venkatesh, Aranya; Karuppiah, Ramkumar; Pfister, Stephan

2015-04-21

Physical water scarcities can be described by water stress indices. These are often determined at an annual scale and a watershed level; however, such scales mask seasonal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity within a watershed. In order to account for this level of detail, first and foremost, water availability estimates must be improved and refined. State-of-the-art global hydrological models such as WaterGAP and UNH/GRDC have previously been unable to reliably reflect water availability at the subbasin scale. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested as an alternative to global models, using the case study of the Mississippi watershed. While SWAT clearly outperformed the global models at the scale of a large watershed, it was judged to be unsuitable for global scale simulations due to the high calibration efforts required. The results obtained in this study show that global assessments miss out on key aspects related to upstream/downstream relations and monthly fluctuations, which are important both for the characterization of water scarcity in the Mississippi watershed and for water footprints. Especially in arid regions, where scarcity is high, these models provide unsatisfying results.

76 FR 54145 - Airworthiness Directives; 328 Support Services GmbH (Type Certificate Previously Held by AvCraft...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-31

... Services GmbH (Type Certificate Previously Held by AvCraft Aerospace GmbH; Fairchild Dornier GmbH; Dornier Luftfahrt GmbH) Model 328-100 Airplanes AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. [[Page 54146... Services GmbH, Global Support Center, P.O. Box 1252, D-82231 Wessling, Federal Republic of Germany...

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vincent, Dayton G.; Robertson, Franklin

1993-01-01

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Exploring the Mass Balance and Sea Level Contribution of Global Glaciers During the Last Interglaciation and Mid-Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S.; Ullman, D. J.; He, F.; Carlson, A. E.; Marzeion, B.; Maussion, F.

2017-12-01

Understanding the behavior of the world's glaciers during previous interglaciations is key to interpreting the sensitivity and behavior of the cryosphere under scenarios of future anthropogenic warming. Previous studies of the Last Interglaciation (LIG, 130 ka to 116 ka) indicate elevated global temperatures and higher sea levels than the Holocene, but most assessments of the impact on the cryosphere have focused on the mass balance and volume change of polar ice sheets. In assessing sea-level sources, most studies assume complete deglacation of global glaciers, but this has yet to be tested. In addition, the significant changes in orbital forcing during the LIG and the associated impacts on climate seasonality and variability may have led to unique glacier evolution.Here, we explore the effect of LIG climate on the global glacier budget. We employ the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), forced by simulated LIG equilibrium climate anomalies (127 ka) from the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). OGGM is a glacier mass balance and dynamics model, specifically designed to reconstruct global glacier volume change. Our simulations have been conducted in an equilibrium state to determine the effect of the prolonged climate forcing of the LIG. Due to unknown flow characteristics of glaciers during the LIG, we explore the parametric uncertainty in the mass balance and flow sensitivity parameters. As a point of comparison, we also conduct a series of simulations using forcing anomalies from the CCSM3 mid-Holocene (6 ka) experiment. Results from both experiments show that glacier mass balance is highly sensitive to these sensitivity parameters, pointing at the need for glacier margin calibration for OGGM in paleoclimate applications.

Investigation of models for large-scale meteorological prediction experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.

1973-01-01

Studies are reported of the long term responses of the model atmosphere to anomalies in snow cover and sea surface temperature. An abstract of a previously issued report on the computed response to surface anomalies in a global atmospheric model is presented, and the experiments on the effects of transient sea surface temperature on the Mintz-Arakawa atmospheric model are reported.

TRANSPORT BY MERIDIONAL CIRCULATIONS IN SOLAR-TYPE STARS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, T. S.; Brummell, N. H., E-mail: tsw25@soe.ucsc.edu

2012-08-20

Transport by meridional flows has significant consequences for stellar evolution, but is difficult to capture in global-scale numerical simulations because of the wide range of timescales involved. Stellar evolution models therefore usually adopt parameterizations for such transport based on idealized laminar or mean-field models. Unfortunately, recent attempts to model this transport in global simulations have produced results that are not consistent with any of these idealized models. In an effort to explain the discrepancies between global simulations and idealized models, here we use three-dimensional local Cartesian simulations of compressible convection to study the efficiency of transport by meridional flows belowmore » a convection zone in several parameter regimes of relevance to the Sun and solar-type stars. In these local simulations we are able to establish the correct ordering of dynamical timescales, although the separation of the timescales remains unrealistic. We find that, even though the generation of internal waves by convective overshoot produces a high degree of time dependence in the meridional flow field, the mean flow has the qualitative behavior predicted by laminar, 'balanced' models. In particular, we observe a progressive deepening, or 'burrowing', of the mean circulation if the local Eddington-Sweet timescale is shorter than the viscous diffusion timescale. Such burrowing is a robust prediction of laminar models in this parameter regime, but has never been observed in any previous numerical simulation. We argue that previous simulations therefore underestimate the transport by meridional flows.« less

A new look at the multi-G model for organic carbon degradation in surface marine sediments for coupled benthic-pelagic simulations of the global ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolpovsky, Konstantin; Dale, Andrew W.; Wallmann, Klaus

2018-06-01

The kinetics of particulate organic carbon (POC) mineralization in marine surface sediments is not well constrained. This creates considerable uncertainties when benthic processes are considered in global biogeochemical or Earth system circulation models to simulate climate-ocean interactions and biogeochemical tracer distributions in the ocean. In an attempt to improve our understanding of the rate and depth distribution of organic carbon mineralization in bioturbated (0-20 cm) sediments at the global scale, we parameterized a 1-D diagenetic model that simulates the mineralization of three discrete POC pools (a multi-G model). The rate constants of the three reactive classes (highly reactive, reactive, refractory) are fixed and determined to be 70, 0.5 and ˜ 0.001 yr-1, respectively, based on the Martin curve model for pelagic POC degradation. In contrast to previous approaches, however, the reactivity of the organic material degraded in the seafloor is continuous with, and set by, the apparent reactivity of material sinking through the water column. Despite the simplifications of describing POC remineralization using G-type approaches, the model is able to simulate a global database (185 stations) of benthic oxygen and nitrate fluxes across the sediment-water interface in addition to porewater oxygen and nitrate distributions and organic carbon burial efficiencies. It is further consistent with degradation experiments using fresh phytoplankton reported in a previous study. We propose that an important yet mostly overlooked consideration in upscaling approaches is the proportion of the reactive POC classes reaching the seafloor in addition to their reactivity. The approach presented is applicable to both steady-state and non-steady state scenarios, and links POC degradation kinetics in sedimentary environments to water depth and the POC rain rate to the seafloor.

Building global models for fat and total protein content in raw milk based on historical spectroscopic data in the visible and short-wave near infrared range.

PubMed

Melenteva, Anastasiia; Galyanin, Vladislav; Savenkova, Elena; Bogomolov, Andrey

2016-07-15

A large set of fresh cow milk samples collected from many suppliers over a large geographical area in Russia during a year has been analyzed by optical spectroscopy in the range 400-1100 nm in accordance with previously developed scatter-based technique. The global (i.e. resistant to seasonal, genetic, regional and other variations of the milk composition) models for fat and total protein content, which were built using partial least-squares (PLS) regression, exhibit satisfactory prediction performances enabling their practical application in the dairy. The root mean-square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were 0.09 and 0.10 for fat and total protein content, respectively. The issues of raw milk analysis and multivariate modelling based on the historical spectroscopic data have been considered and approaches to the creation of global models and their transfer between the instruments have been proposed. Availability of global models should significantly facilitate the dissemination of optical spectroscopic methods for the laboratory and in-line quantitative milk analysis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Does Southern Ocean Surface Forcing Shape the Global Ocean Overturning Circulation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shantong; Eisenman, Ian; Stewart, Andrew L.

2018-03-01

Paleoclimate proxy data suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) was shallower at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) than its preindustrial (PI) depth. Previous studies have suggested that this shoaling necessarily accompanies Antarctic sea ice expansion at the LGM. Here the influence of Southern Ocean surface forcing on the AMOC depth is investigated using ocean-only simulations from a state-of-the-art climate model with surface forcing specified from the output of previous coupled PI and LGM simulations. In contrast to previous expectations, we find that applying LGM surface forcing in the Southern Ocean and PI surface forcing elsewhere causes the AMOC to shoal only about half as much as when LGM surface forcing is applied globally. We show that this occurs because diapycnal mixing renders the Southern Ocean overturning circulation more diabatic than previously assumed, which diminishes the influence of Southern Ocean surface buoyancy forcing on the depth of the AMOC.

Representing Plant Hydraulics in a Global Model: Updates to the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, D.; Swenson, S. C.; Oleson, K. W.; Lawrence, D. M.; Fisher, R.; Gentine, P.

2017-12-01

In previous versions, the Community Land Model has used soil moisture to stand in for plant water status, with transpiration and photosynthesis driven directly by soil water potential. This eschews significant literature demonstrating the importance of plant hydraulic traits in the dynamics of water flow through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and in the regulation of stomatal aperture. In this study we install a simplified hydraulic framework to represent vegetation water potential and to regulate root water uptake and turbulent fluxes. Plant hydraulics allow for a more explicit representation of plant water status, which improves the physical basis for many processes represented in CLM. This includes root water uptake and the attenuation of photosynthesis and transpiration with drought. Model description is accompanied by results from a point simulation based at the Caxiuanã flux tower site in Eastern Amazonia, covering a throughfall exclusion experiment from 2001-2003. Including plant hydraulics improves the response to drought forcing compared to previous versions of CLM. Parameter sensitivity is examined at the same site and presented in the context of estimating hydraulic parameters in a global model.

Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Barlas, C.; Giannadaki, D.; Pozzer, A.

2013-07-01

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimate the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). This is based upon high-resolution global model calculations that resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. Results indicate that 69% of the global population is exposed to an annual mean anthropogenic PM2.5 concentration of >10 μg m-3 (WHO guideline) and 33% to > 25 μg m-3 (EU directive). We applied an epidemiological health impact function and find that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have been underestimated given that previous studies largely focused on the urban environment. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand/year (YLL ≈ 5.2 million/year), 186 thousand/year by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million/year) and 2.0 million/year by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million/year). The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1% yr-1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset hindcasts indicate that climate models increase drought detectability over ESP by 31%-81%. However, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with weak ENSO signals and lower potential predictability. Due to the high false alarms from climate models, the reliability is more important than sharpness for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. Validations and skill assessments for agricultural and hydrologic drought forecasts are carried out using soil moisture and streamflow output from the VIC land surface model (LSM) forced by a global forcing data set. Given our previous drought forecasting experiences over USA and Africa, validating the hydrologic drought forecasting is a significant challenge for a global drought early warning system.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model - Part I: Validation of the biological simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, E. E.; Coward, A. C.; Nurser, G. A.; de Cuevas, B.; Fasham, M. J. R.; Anderson, T. R.

2006-12-01

A global general circulation model coupled to a simple six-compartment ecosystem model is used to study the extent to which global variability in primary and export production can be realistically predicted on the basis of advanced parameterizations of upper mixed layer physics, without recourse to introducing extra complexity in model biology. The "K profile parameterization" (KPP) scheme employed, combined with 6-hourly external forcing, is able to capture short-term periodic and episodic events such as diurnal cycling and storm-induced deepening. The model realistically reproduces various features of global ecosystem dynamics that have been problematic in previous global modelling studies, using a single generic parameter set. The realistic simulation of deep convection in the North Atlantic, and lack of it in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans, leads to good predictions of chlorophyll and primary production in these contrasting areas. Realistic levels of primary production are predicted in the oligotrophic gyres due to high frequency external forcing of the upper mixed layer (accompanying paper Popova et al., 2006) and novel parameterizations of zooplankton excretion. Good agreement is shown between model and observations at various JGOFS time series sites: BATS, KERFIX, Papa and HOT. One exception is the northern North Atlantic where lower grazing rates are needed, perhaps related to the dominance of mesozooplankton there. The model is therefore not globally robust in the sense that additional parameterizations are needed to realistically simulate ecosystem dynamics in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, the work emphasises the need to pay particular attention to the parameterization of mixed layer physics in global ocean ecosystem modelling as a prerequisite to increasing the complexity of ecosystem models.

An Observation-base investigation of nudging in WRF for downscaling surface climate information to 12-km Grid Spacing

EPA Science Inventory

Previous research has demonstrated the ability to use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and contemporary dynamical downscaling methods to refine global climate modeling results to a horizontal resolution of 36 km. Environmental managers and urban planners have expre...

[Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the PROMIS Global Health scale in the Portuguese language].

PubMed

Zumpano, Camila Eugênia; Mendonça, Tânia Maria da Silva; Silva, Carlos Henrique Martins da; Correia, Helena; Arnold, Benjamin; Pinto, Rogério de Melo Costa

2017-01-23

This study aimed to perform the cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Global Health scale in the Portuguese language. The ten Global Health items were cross-culturally adapted by the method proposed in the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT). The instrument's final version in Portuguese was self-administered by 1,010 participants in Brazil. The scale's precision was verified by floor and ceiling effects analysis, reliability of internal consistency, and test-retest reliability. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were used to assess the construct's validity and instrument's dimensionality. Calibration of the items used the Gradual Response Model proposed by Samejima. Four global items required adjustments after the pretest. Analysis of the psychometric properties showed that the Global Health scale has good reliability, with Cronbach's alpha of 0.83 and intra-class correlation of 0.89. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses showed good fit in the previously established two-dimensional model. The Global Physical Health and Global Mental Health scale showed good latent trait coverage according to the Gradual Response Model. The PROMIS Global Health items showed equivalence in Portuguese compared to the original version and satisfactory psychometric properties for application in clinical practice and research in the Brazilian population.

Soil Methane uptake Model (MeMo): a process based model for global methane consumption by soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murguia-Flores, F.; Arndt, S.; Ganesan, A.; Hornibrook, E. R. C.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) is a powerful greenhouse gas, responsible for 20% of global warming. The only terrestrial and biological sink is the uptake in the soils by methanotrophic bacteria, however there is large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the magnitude of this sink. One way to provide a global understanding of this process is by using a mathematical model to simulate the mechanisms of the underlying physical and biological drivers. Here we present the soil Methane uptake Model (MeMo) a process-based model for the global methane consumption by soils. We have built on previous models by Ridgwell et al., (1999) and Curry et al., (2007), by making several advances. First, a general analytical solution of the one-dimensional diffusion-reaction equation was implemented that accounts for a maximum uptake depth and for a CH4 flux coming from below the surface (i.e. CH4 production in the soil). Secondly, we revisited and improved the effect of nitrogen inhibition, soil moisture and soil temperature on CH4 uptake in the light of newly available data and advances in our understanding of these drivers. Using observed forcing data, we estimated a global mean CH4 uptake of 31.2±1.2 Tg y-1 for the period 1990-2009 with an increasing trend of 0.1 Tg y-2. Our model represented the latitudinal pattern of uptake shown by field observations, with the highest uptake per unit area occurring over dry tropical forest and the lowest uptake in the polar desert. The highest seasonality occurred in the Northern Hemisphere, showing that the main driver of variability in a given year is from a combination of temperature and soil moisture. Our model showed that CH4 uptake is reduced from previous studies by approximately 10% at the regions with the highest nitrogen deposition: East Asia and Europe. Finally, our results suggest that more field measurements are needed to improve the modelling of the process, such as the basal oxidation rate for different ecosystems, the Q10 temperature response across different conditions and long term field CH4 uptake records.

Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Barlas, C.; Giannadaki, D.; Pozzer, A.

2013-03-01

Air pollution by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) has increased strongly with industrialization and urbanization. We estimated the premature mortality rates and the years of human life lost (YLL) caused by anthropogenic PM2.5 and O3 in 2005 for epidemiological regions defined by the World Health Organization. We carried out high-resolution global model calculations to resolve urban and industrial regions in greater detail compared to previous work. We applied a health impact function to estimate premature mortality for people of 30 yr and older, using parameters derived from epidemiological cohort studies. Our results suggest that especially in large countries with extensive suburban and rural populations, air pollution-induced mortality rates have previously been underestimated. We calculate a global respiratory mortality of about 773 thousand yr-1 (YLL ≈ 5.2 million yr-1), 186 thousand yr-1 by lung cancer (YLL ≈ 1.7 million yr-1) and 2.0 million yr-1 by cardiovascular disease (YLL ≈ 14.3 million yr-1). The global mean per capita mortality caused by air pollution is about 0.1 % yr-1. The highest premature mortality rates are found in the Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions (about 25% and 46% of the global rate, respectively) where more than a dozen of the most highly polluted megacities are located.

Global assessment of the effect of climate change on ammonia emissions from seabirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Blackall, Trevor D.; Tomlinson, Sam J.; Daunt, Francis; Wanless, Sarah; Hallsworth, Stephen; Braban, Christine F.; Tang, Y. Sim; Sutton, Mark A.

2018-07-01

Seabird colonies alter the biogeochemistry of nearby ecosystems, while the associated emissions of ammonia (NH3) may cause acidification and eutrophication of finely balanced biomes. To examine the possible effects of future climate change on the magnitude and distribution of seabird NH3 emissions globally, a global seabird database was used as input to the GUANO model, a dynamic mass-flow process-based model that simulates NH3 losses from seabird colonies at an hourly resolution in relation to environmental conditions. Ammonia emissions calculated by the GUANO model were in close agreement with measured NH3 emissions across a wide range of climates. For the year 2010, the total global seabird NH3 emission is estimated at 82 [37-127] Gg year-1. This is less than previously estimated using a simple temperature-dependent empirical model, mainly due to inclusion of nitrogen wash-off from colonies during precipitation events in the GUANO model. High precipitation, especially between 40° and 60° S, results in total emissions for the penguin species that are 82% smaller than previously estimated, while for species found in dry tropical areas, emissions are 83-133% larger. Application of temperature anomalies for several IPCC scenarios for 2099 in the GUANO model indicated a predicted net increase in global seabird NH3 emissions of 27% (B1 scenario) and 39% (A2 scenario), compared with the 2010 estimates. At individual colonies, the net change was the result of influences of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity change, with smaller effects of wind-speed changes. The largest increases in NH3 emissions (mean: 60% [486 to -50] increase; A2 scenario for 2099 compared with 2010) were found for colonies 40°S to 65°N, and may lead to increased plant growth and decreased biodiversity by eliminating nitrogen sensitive plant species. Only 7% of the seabird colonies assessed globally (mainly limited to the sub-polar Southern Ocean) were estimated to experience a reduction in NH3 emission (average: -18% [-50 to 0] reduction between 2010 and 2099, A2 scenario), where an increase in precipitation was found to more than offset the effect of rising temperatures.

Development and verification of global/local analysis techniques for laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Danniella Muheim; Griffin, O. Hayden, Jr.

1991-01-01

A two-dimensional to three-dimensional global/local finite element approach was developed, verified, and applied to a laminated composite plate of finite width and length containing a central circular hole. The resulting stress fields for axial compression loads were examined for several symmetric stacking sequences and hole sizes. Verification was based on comparison of the displacements and the stress fields with those accepted trends from previous free edge investigations and a complete three-dimensional finite element solution of the plate. The laminates in the compression study included symmetric cross-ply, angle-ply and quasi-isotropic stacking sequences. The entire plate was selected as the global model and analyzed with two-dimensional finite elements. Displacements along a region identified as the global/local interface were applied in a kinematically consistent fashion to independent three-dimensional local models. Local areas of interest in the plate included a portion of the straight free edge near the hole, and the immediate area around the hole. Interlaminar stress results obtained from the global/local analyses compares well with previously reported trends, and some new conclusions about interlaminar stress fields in plates with different laminate orientations and hole sizes are presented for compressive loading. The effectiveness of the global/local procedure in reducing the computational effort required to solve these problems is clearly demonstrated through examination of the computer time required to formulate and solve the linear, static system of equations which result for the global and local analyses to those required for a complete three-dimensional formulation for a cross-ply laminate. Specific processors used during the analyses are described in general terms. The application of this global/local technique is not limited software system, and was developed and described in as general a manner as possible.

Effects of variation in solar conditions and crustal sources' orientation on the Martian magnetic field topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulusen, D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Ma, Y.; Brain, D. A.

2013-12-01

Strong crustal magnetic sources on the surface of Mars directly interact with the solar magnetic field and plasma, resulting a very dynamic environment near the planet. Effects of the orientation of these remnant magnetic sources with respect to the sun and variation of the solar conditions on the Martian plasma interaction have been investigated in a previous paper. In this previous study, magnetic topology maps obtained from ~7 years of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) directional electron observations (obtained by Dave Brain) were compared with the topology maps obtained from a set of BATS-R-US MHD simulations for Mars. One conclusion from this study was that although the MHD model is consistent with the data and provides insight about the global magnetic field topology variation with changing crustal field orientation and solar parameters, detailed investigation of local effects is difficult due to MGS orbital bias. Moreover, proper comparison of the observations with the model requires more careful data selection rather than using 7 years time averages. In this paper, we readdress the study to tackle the problems of our previous work by performing more detailed data analysis and present the results of the updated model-data comparison.

Posttraumatic Growth and Bereavement: The Contribution of Self-Determination Theory.

PubMed

Lumb, Andrew B; Beaudry, Myriam; Blanchard, Celine

2017-09-01

No research drawing from Self-Determination Theory has investigated the bereavement experience of individuals or how motivation can help facilitate posttraumatic growth (PTG) following the death of a loved one. In two cross-sectional studies, university students completed an online survey. Study 1 investigated the contribution of global autonomous and controlled motivation in statistically predicting PTG above and beyond previously researched correlates. Study 2 explored the mediating role of cognitive appraisals and coping in explaining the relationship between global motivation orientations and PTG. Results indicated that in comparison to controlled motivation, autonomous motivation was positively related PTG, even after controlling for previously researched correlates. Mediation results indicated an indirect effect of global autonomous motivation on PTG through task-oriented coping. Collectively, these findings suggest the importance of incorporating motivation into models of PTG. Clinical implications of these findings are also discussed.

Combined constraints on global ocean primary production using observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Hashioka, Taketo; Quéré, Corinne Le

2013-09-01

production is at the base of the marine food web and plays a central role for global biogeochemical cycles. Yet global ocean primary production is known to only a factor of 2, with previous estimates ranging from 38 to 65 Pg C yr-1 and no formal uncertainty analysis. Here, we present an improved global ocean biogeochemistry model that includes a mechanistic representation of photosynthesis and a new observational database of net primary production (NPP) in the ocean. We combine the model and observations to constrain particulate NPP in the ocean with statistical metrics. The PlankTOM5.3 model includes a new photosynthesis formulation with a dynamic representation of iron-light colimitation, which leads to a considerable improvement of the interannual variability of surface chlorophyll. The database includes a consistent set of 50,050 measurements of 14C primary production. The model best reproduces observations when global NPP is 58 ± 7 Pg C yr-1, with a most probable value of 56 Pg C yr-1. The most probable value is robust to the model used. The uncertainty represents 95% confidence intervals. It considers all random errors in the model and observations, but not potential biases in the observations. We show that tropical regions (23°S-23°N) contribute half of the global NPP, while NPPs in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres are approximately equal in spite of the larger ocean area in the South.

75 FR 75159 - Airworthiness Directives; 328 Support Services GmbH (Type Certificate Previously Held by AvCraft...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-02

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-08

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Construct validity of the ovine model in endoscopic sinus surgery training.

PubMed

Awad, Zaid; Taghi, Ali; Sethukumar, Priya; Tolley, Neil S

2015-03-01

To demonstrate construct validity of the ovine model as a tool for training in endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Prospective, cross-sectional evaluation study. Over 18 consecutive months, trainees and experts were evaluated in their ability to perform a range of tasks (based on previous face validation and descriptive studies conducted by the same group) relating to ESS on the sheep-head model. Anonymized randomized video recordings of the above were assessed by two independent and blinded assessors. A validated assessment tool utilizing a five-point Likert scale was employed. Construct validity was calculated by comparing scores across training levels and experts using mean and interquartile range of global and task-specific scores. Subgroup analysis of the intermediate group ascertained previous experience. Nonparametric descriptive statistics were used, and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 21 (IBM, Armonk, NY). Reliability of the assessment tool was confirmed. The model discriminated well between different levels of expertise in global and task-specific scores. A positive correlation was noted between year in training and both global and task-specific scores (P < .001). Experience of the intermediate group was variable, and the number of ESS procedures performed under supervision had the highest impact on performance. This study describes an alternative model for ESS training and assessment. It is also the first to demonstrate construct validity of the sheep-head model for ESS training. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

The influence of global self-heating on the Yarkovsky and YORP effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozitis, B.; Green, S. F.

2013-07-01

In addition to collisions and gravitational forces, there is a growing amount of evidence that photon recoil forces from the asymmetric reflection and thermal re-radiation of absorbed sunlight are primary mechanisms that are fundamental to the physical and dynamical evolution of small asteroids. The Yarkovsky effect causes orbital drift, and the Yarkovsky-O'Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack (YORP) effect causes changes in the rotation rate and pole orientation. We present an adaptation of the Advanced Thermophysical Model to simultaneously predict the Yarkovsky and YORP effects in the presence of global self-heating that occurs within the large concavities of irregularly shaped asteroids, which has been neglected or dismissed in all previous models. It is also combined with rough surface thermal-infrared beaming effects, which have been previously shown to enhance the Yarkovsky orbital drift and dampen on average the YORP rotational acceleration by orders of several tens of per cent. Tests on all published concave shape models of near-Earth asteroids, and also on 100 Gaussian random spheres, show that the Yarkovsky effect is sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects at the few per cent level or less. For simplicity, Yarkovsky models can neglect these effects if the level of accuracy desired is of this order. Unlike the Yarkovsky effect, the YORP effect can be very sensitive to shadowing and global self-heating effects. Its sensitivity increases with decreasing relative strength of the YORP rotational acceleration, and does not appear to depend greatly on the degree of asteroid concavity. Global self-heating tends to produce a vertical offset in an asteroid's YORP-rotational-acceleration versus obliquity curve which is in opposite direction to that produced by shadowing effects. It also ensures that at least one critical obliquity angle exists at which zero YORP rotational acceleration occurs. Global self-heating must be included for accurate predictions of the YORP effect if an asteroid exhibits a large shadowing effect. If global self-heating effects are not included, then it is found in ˜75 per cent of cases that better predictions are produced when shadowing is also not included. Furthermore, global self-heating has implications for reducing the sensitivity of the YORP effect predictions to detailed variations in an asteroid's shape model.

Compiling and Mapping Global Permeability of the Unconsolidated and Consolidated Earth: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS 2.0 (GLHYMPS 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huscroft, Jordan; Gleeson, Tom; Hartmann, Jens; Börker, Janine

2018-02-01

The spatial distribution of subsurface parameters such as permeability are increasingly relevant for regional to global climate, land surface, and hydrologic models that are integrating groundwater dynamics and interactions. Despite the large fraction of unconsolidated sediments on Earth's surface with a wide range of permeability values, current global, high-resolution permeability maps distinguish solely fine-grained and coarse-grained unconsolidated sediments. Representative permeability values are derived for a wide variety of unconsolidated sediments and applied to a new global map of unconsolidated sediments to produce the first geologically constrained, two-layer global map of shallower and deeper permeability. The new mean logarithmic permeability of the Earth's surface is -12.7 ± 1.7 m2 being 1 order of magnitude higher than that derived from previous maps, which is consistent with the dominance of the coarser sediments. The new data set will benefit a variety of scientific applications including the next generation of climate, land surface, and hydrology models at regional to global scales.

International trade network: fractal properties and globalization puzzle.

PubMed

Karpiarz, Mariusz; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2014-12-12

Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance increases rather than decreases. This, in essence, captures the notion of the globalization puzzle. Here, we show that the fractality of the international trade system (ITS) provides a simple solution for the puzzle. We argue that the distance coefficient corresponds to the fractal dimension of ITS. We provide two independent methods, the box counting method and spatial choice model, which confirm this statement. Our results allow us to conclude that the previous approaches to solving the puzzle misinterpreted the meaning of the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade.

International Trade Network: Fractal Properties and Globalization Puzzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpiarz, Mariusz; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2014-12-01

Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance increases rather than decreases. This, in essence, captures the notion of the globalization puzzle. Here, we show that the fractality of the international trade system (ITS) provides a simple solution for the puzzle. We argue that the distance coefficient corresponds to the fractal dimension of ITS. We provide two independent methods, the box counting method and spatial choice model, which confirm this statement. Our results allow us to conclude that the previous approaches to solving the puzzle misinterpreted the meaning of the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade.

Global Effects of SuperParameterization on Hydro-Thermal Land-Atmosphere Coupling on Multiple Timescales and an Amplification of the Bowen Ratio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Kooperman, G. J.; Parishani, H.

2017-12-01

Conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE) tend to produce overly strong Land-Atmosphere coupling (L-A coupling) strength. We investigate the effects of cloud SuperParameterization (SP) on L-A coupling on timescales longer than the diurnal where it has been previously shown to have a strong effect. Using the Community Atmosphere Model v3.5 (CAM3.5) and its SuperParameterized counterpart SPCAM3.5, we conducted experiments following the GLACE and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) protocols. On synoptic-to-subseasonal timescales, SP significantly mutes hydrologic L-A coupling on a global scale, through the atmospheric segment. But on longer seasonal timescales, SP does not exhibit detectable effects on hydrologic L-A coupling. Two regional effects of SP on thermal L-A coupling are also discovered and explored. Over the Arabian Peninsula, SP strikingly reduces thermal L-A coupling due to a control by mean regional rainfall reduction. Over the Southwestern US and Northern Mexico, however, SP remarkably enhances the thermal L-A coupling independent of rainfall or soil moisture. We argue that the cause may be a previously unrecognized effect of SP to amplify the simulated Bowen ratio. Not only does this help reconcile a puzzling local enhancement of thermal L-A coupling over the Southwestern US, but it is also demonstrated to be a robust, global effect of SP over land that is independent of model version and experiment design, and that has important consequences for climate change prediction.

Re-approaching global iodine emissions: A novel parameterisation for sea-surface iodide concentrations using a machine learning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwen, T.; Evans, M. J.; Chance, R.; Tinel, L.; Carpenter, L.

2017-12-01

Halogens (Cl, Br, I) in the troposphere have been shown to play a profound role in determining the concentrations of ozone and OH. Iodine, which is essentially oceanic in source, exerts its largest impacts on composition in both the marine boundary layer, and in the upper troposphere. This chemistry has only recently been implemented into global models and significant uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the magnitude of iodine emissions. Iodine emissions are dominated by the inorganic oxidation of iodide in the sea surface by ozone, which leads to release of gaseous inorganic iodine (HOI, I2). Critical for calculation of these fluxes is the sea-surface concentration of iodide, which is poorly constrained by observations. Previous parameterizations for sea-surface iodide concentration have focused on simple regressive relationships with sea surface temperature and another single oceanographic variables. This leads to differences in iodine fluxes of approximately a factor of two, and leads to substantial differences in the modelled impact of iodine on atmospheric composition. Here we use an expanded dataset of oceanic iodide observations, which incorporates new data that has been targeted at areas with poor coverage previously. A novel approach of multivariate machine learning techniques is applied to this expanded dataset to generate a model that yields improved estimates of the global sea surface iodide distribution. We then use a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to explore the impact of this new parameterisation on the atmospheric budget of iodine and its impact on tropospheric composition.

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions.

PubMed

Butler, Ethan E; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Chen, Ming; Wythers, Kirk R; Fazayeli, Farideh; Banerjee, Arindam; Atkin, Owen K; Kattge, Jens; Amiaud, Bernard; Blonder, Benjamin; Boenisch, Gerhard; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Brown, Kerry A; Byun, Chaeho; Campetella, Giandiego; Cerabolini, Bruno E L; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Craine, Joseph M; Craven, Dylan; de Vries, Franciska T; Díaz, Sandra; Domingues, Tomas F; Forey, Estelle; González-Melo, Andrés; Gross, Nicolas; Han, Wenxuan; Hattingh, Wesley N; Hickler, Thomas; Jansen, Steven; Kramer, Koen; Kraft, Nathan J B; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Laughlin, Daniel C; Meir, Patrick; Minden, Vanessa; Niinemets, Ülo; Onoda, Yusuke; Peñuelas, Josep; Read, Quentin; Sack, Lawren; Schamp, Brandon; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Spasojevic, Marko J; Sosinski, Enio; Thornton, Peter E; Valladares, Fernando; van Bodegom, Peter M; Williams, Mathew; Wirth, Christian; Reich, Peter B

2017-12-19

Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusing on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration-specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen ([Formula: see text]) and phosphorus ([Formula: see text]), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 [Formula: see text]-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways-without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model's predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means.

Statistical prediction of September Arctic Sea Ice minimum based on stable teleconnections with global climate and oceanic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ionita, M.; Grosfeld, K.; Scholz, P.; Lohmann, G.

2016-12-01

Sea ice in both Polar Regions is an important indicator for the expression of global climate change and its polar amplification. Consequently, a broad information interest exists on sea ice, its coverage, variability and long term change. Knowledge on sea ice requires high quality data on ice extent, thickness and its dynamics. However, its predictability depends on various climate parameters and conditions. In order to provide insights into the potential development of a monthly/seasonal signal, we developed a robust statistical model based on ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and atmospheric variables to calculate an estimate of the September minimum sea ice extent for every year. Although previous statistical attempts at monthly/seasonal forecasts of September sea ice minimum show a relatively reduced skill, here it is shown that more than 97% (r = 0.98) of the September sea ice extent can predicted three months in advance by using previous months conditions via a multiple linear regression model based on global sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (SLP), air temperature at 850hPa (TT850), surface winds and sea ice extent persistence. The statistical model is based on the identification of regions with stable teleconnections between the predictors (climatological parameters) and the predictand (here sea ice extent). The results based on our statistical model contribute to the sea ice prediction network for the sea ice outlook report (https://www.arcus.org/sipn) and could provide a tool for identifying relevant regions and climate parameters that are important for the sea ice development in the Arctic and for detecting sensitive and critical regions in global coupled climate models with focus on sea ice formation.

The Pilot Phase of the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

After the second phase of the Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2) as an early global continuous gridded multi-model analysis, a comprehensive set of land surface fluxes and state variables became available. It has been broadly utilized in the hydrology community, and its success has evolved to take advantages of recent scientific progress and to extend the relatively short time span (1986-1995) of the previous project. In the third phase proposed here (GSWP3), an extensive set of quantities for hydro-energy-eco systems will be produced to investigate their long-term (1901-2010) changes. The energy-water-carbon cycles and their interactions are also examined subcomponent-wise with appropriate model verifications in ensemble land simulations. In this study, the preliminary results and problems found from the first round analysis of the GSWP3 pilot study are shown. Also, it is discussed how the global offline simulation activity contributes to wider communities and a bigger scope such as Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).

Ionospheric Correction Based on Ingestion of Global Ionospheric Maps into the NeQuick 2 Model

PubMed Central

Yu, Xiao; She, Chengli; Zhen, Weimin; Bruno, Nava; Liu, Dun; Yue, Xinan; Ou, Ming; Xu, Jisheng

2015-01-01

The global ionospheric maps (GIMs), generated by Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) during a period over 13 years, have been adopted as the primary source of data to provide global ionospheric correction for possible single frequency positioning applications. The investigation aims to assess the performance of new NeQuick model, NeQuick 2, in predicting global total electron content (TEC) through ingesting the GIMs data from the previous day(s). The results show good performance of the GIMs-driven-NeQuick model with average 86% of vertical TEC error less than 10 TECU, when the global daily effective ionization indices (Az) versus modified dip latitude (MODIP) are constructed as a second order polynomial. The performance of GIMs-driven-NeQuick model presents variability with solar activity and behaves better during low solar activity years. The accuracy of TEC prediction can be improved further through performing a four-coefficient function expression of Az versus MODIP. As more measurements from earlier days are involved in the Az optimization procedure, the accuracy may decrease. The results also reveal that more efforts are needed to improve the NeQuick 2 model capabilities to represent the ionosphere in the equatorial and high-latitude regions. PMID:25815369

Venus - Global gravity and topography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnamee, J. B.; Borderies, N. J.; Sjogren, W. L.

1993-01-01

A new gravity field determination that has been produced combines both the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) and the Magellan Doppler radio data. Comparisonsbetween this estimate, a spherical harmonic model of degree and order 21, and previous models show that significant improvements have been made. Results are displayed as gravity contours overlaying a topographic map. We also calculate a new spherical harmonic model of topography based on Magellan altimetry, with PVO altimetry included where gaps exist in the Magellan data. This model is also of degree and order 21, so in conjunction with the gravity model, Bouguer and isostatic anomaly maps can be produced. These results are very consistent with previous results, but reveal more spatial resolution in the higher latitudes.

Domain-Specific QSAR Models for Identifying Potential Estrogenic Activity of Phenols (FutureTox III)

EPA Science Inventory

Computational tools can be used for efficient evaluation of untested chemicals for their ability to disrupt the endocrine system. We have employed previously developed global QSAR models that were trained and validated on the ToxCast/Tox21 ER assay data for virtual screening of a...

Seasonal Variability in Global Eddy Diffusion and the Effect on Thermospheric Neutral Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.

2014-12-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time between January 2004 and January 2008 were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics - Global Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy-diffusivity models. The eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the RMS difference between the TIME-GCM model and density data from a variety of satellites is reduced by an average of 5%. This result, indicates that global thermospheric density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates how eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are some limitations of this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude-dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Seasonal variability in global eddy diffusion and the effect on neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M. D.; Crowley, G.

2015-04-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics global circulation model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy diffusivity models. Eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the root-mean-square sum for the TIME-GCM model is reduced by an average of 5% when compared to density data from a variety of satellites, indicating that the fidelity of global density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates that eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are limitations to this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion which is also consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Extratropical Respones to Amazon Deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badger, A.; Dirmeyer, P.

2014-12-01

Land-use change (LUC) is known to impact local climate conditions through modifications of land-atmosphere interactions. Large-scale LUC, such as Amazon deforestation, could have a significant effect on the local and regional climates. The question remains as to what the global impact of large-scale LUC could be, as previous modeling studies have shown non-local responses due to Amazon deforestation. A common shortcoming in many previous modeling studies is the use of prescribed ocean conditions, which can act as a boundary condition to dampen the global response with respect to changes in the mean and variability. Using fully coupled modeling simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.0, the Amazon rainforest has been replaced with a distribution of representative tropical crops. Through the modifications of local land-atmosphere interactions, a significant change in the region, both at the surface and throughout the atmosphere, can be quantified. Accompanying these local changes are significant changes to the atmospheric circulation across all scales, thus modifying regional climates in other locales. Notable impacts include significant changes in precipitation, surface fluxes, basin-wide sea surface temperatures and ENSO behavior.

On direct internal methane steam reforming kinetics in operating solid oxide fuel cells with nickel-ceria anodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thallam Thattai, A.; van Biert, L.; Aravind, P. V.

2017-12-01

Major operating challenges remain to safely operate methane fuelled solid oxide fuel cells due to undesirable temperature gradients across the porous anode and carbon deposition. This article presents an experimental study on methane steam reforming (MSR) global kinetics for single operating SOFCs with Ni-GDC (gadolinium doped ceria) anodes for low steam to carbon (S/C) ratios and moderate current densities. The study points out the hitherto insufficient research on MSR global and intrinsic kinetics for operating SOFCs with complete Ni-ceria anodes. Further, it emphasizes the need to develop readily applicable global kinetic models as a subsequent step from previously reported state-of-art and complex intrinsic models. Two rate expressions of the Power law (PL) and Langmuir-Hinshelwood (LH) type have been compared and based on the analysis, limitations of using previously proposed rate expressions for Ni catalytic beds to study MSR kinetics for complete cermet anodes have been identified. Firstly, it has been shown that methane reforming on metallic (Ni) current collectors may not be always negligible, contrary to literature reports. Both PL and LH kinetic models predict significantly different local MSR reaction rate and species partial pressure distributions along the normalized reactor length, indicating a strong need for further experimental verifications.

Constraining global air-sea gas exchange for CO2 with recent bomb 14C measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sweeney, Colm; Gloor, Emanuel; Jacobson, Andrew R.; Key, Robert M.; McKinley, Galen; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Wanninkhof, Rik

2007-06-01

The 14CO2 released into the stratosphere during bomb testing in the early 1960s provides a global constraint on air-sea gas exchange of soluble atmospheric gases like CO2. Using the most complete database of dissolved inorganic radiocarbon, DI14C, available to date and a suite of ocean general circulation models in an inverse mode we recalculate the ocean inventory of bomb-produced DI14C in the global ocean and confirm that there is a 25% decrease from previous estimates using older DI14C data sets. Additionally, we find a 33% lower globally averaged gas transfer velocity for CO2 compared to previous estimates (Wanninkhof, 1992) using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 1954-2000 where the global mean winds are 6.9 m s-1. Unlike some earlier ocean radiocarbon studies, the implied gas transfer velocity finally closes the gap between small-scale deliberate tracer studies and global-scale estimates. Additionally, the total inventory of bomb-produced radiocarbon in the ocean is now in agreement with global budgets based on radiocarbon measurements made in the stratosphere and troposphere. Using the implied relationship between wind speed and gas transfer velocity ks = 0.27(Sc/660)-0.5 and standard partial pressure difference climatology of CO2 we obtain an net air-sea flux estimate of 1.3 ± 0.5 PgCyr-1 for 1995. After accounting for the carbon transferred from rivers to the deep ocean, our estimate of oceanic uptake (1.8 ± 0.5 PgCyr-1) compares well with estimates based on ocean inventories, ocean transport inversions using ocean concentration data, and model simulations.

Global Energy and Water Budgets in MERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Chen, Junye

2010-01-01

Reanalyses, retrospectively analyzing observations over climatological time scales, represent a merger between satellite observations and models to provide globally continuous data and have improved over several generations. Balancing the Earth s global water and energy budgets has been a focus of research for more than two decades. Models tend to their own climate while remotely sensed observations have had varying degrees of uncertainty. This study evaluates the latest NASA reanalysis, called the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), from a global water and energy cycles perspective. MERRA was configured to provide complete budgets in its output diagnostics, including the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU), the term that represents the observations influence on the analyzed states, alongside the physical flux terms. Precipitation in reanalyses is typically sensitive to the observational analysis. For MERRA, the global mean precipitation bias and spatial variability are more comparable to merged satellite observations (GPCP and CMAP) than previous generations of reanalyses. Ocean evaporation also has a much lower value which is comparable to observed data sets. The global energy budget shows that MERRA cloud effects may be generally weak, leading to excess shortwave radiation reaching the ocean surface. Evaluating the MERRA time series of budget terms, a significant change occurs, which does not appear to be represented in observations. In 1999, the global analysis increments of water vapor changes sign from negative to positive, and primarily lead to more oceanic precipitation. This change is coincident with the beginning of AMSU radiance assimilation. Previous and current reanalyses all exhibit some sensitivity to perturbations in the observation record, and this remains a significant research topic for reanalysis development. The effect of the changing observing system is evaluated for MERRA water and energy budget terms.

Regional variability of sea level change using a global ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombard, A.; Garric, G.; Cazenave, A.; Penduff, T.; Molines, J.

2007-12-01

We analyse different runs of a global eddy-permitting (1/4 degree) ocean model driven by atmospheric forcing to evaluate regional variability of sea level change over 1993-2001, 1998-2006 and over the long period 1958-2004. No data assimilation is performed in the model, contrarily to previous similar studies (Carton et al., 2005; Wunsch et al., 2007; Koehl and Stammer, 2007). We compare the model-based regional sea level trend patterns with the one deduced from satellite altimetry data. We examine respective contributions of steric and bottom pressure changes to total regional sea level changes. For the steric component, we analyze separately the contributions of temperature and salinity changes as well as upper and lower ocean contributions.

Modeling Global Soil Carbon and Soil Microbial Carbon by Integrating Microbial Processes into the Ecosystem Process Model TRIPLEX-GHG

DOE PAGES

Wang, Kefeng; Peng, Changhui; Zhu, Qiuan; ...

2017-09-28

Microbial physiology plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. However, most traditional soil carbon models are lacking in terms of the representation of key microbial processes that control the soil carbon response to global climate change. In this study, the improved process-based model TRIPLEX-GHG was developed by coupling it with the new MEND (Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition) model to estimate total global soil organic carbon (SOC) and global soil microbial carbon. The new model (TRIPLEX-MICROBE) shows considerable improvement over the previous version (TRIPLEX-GHG) in simulating SOC. We estimated the global soil carbon stock to be approximately 1195more » Pg C, with 348 Pg C located in the high northern latitudes, which is in good agreement with the well-regarded Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). We also estimated the global soil microbial carbon to be 21 Pg C, similar to the 23 Pg C estimated. We found that the microbial carbon quantity in the latitudinal direction showed reversions at approximately 30°N, near the equator and at 25°S. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the tundra ecosystem exhibited the highest sensitivity to a 1°C increase or decrease in temperature in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC). Furthermore, our work represents the first step towards a new generation of ecosystem process models capable of integrating key microbial processes into soil carbon cycles.« less

Modeling Global Soil Carbon and Soil Microbial Carbon by Integrating Microbial Processes into the Ecosystem Process Model TRIPLEX-GHG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kefeng; Peng, Changhui; Zhu, Qiuan; Zhou, Xiaolu; Wang, Meng; Zhang, Kerou; Wang, Gangsheng

2017-10-01

Microbial physiology plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. However, most traditional soil carbon models are lacking in terms of the representation of key microbial processes that control the soil carbon response to global climate change. In this study, the improved process-based model TRIPLEX-GHG was developed by coupling it with the new MEND (Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition) model to estimate total global soil organic carbon (SOC) and global soil microbial carbon. The new model (TRIPLEX-MICROBE) shows considerable improvement over the previous version (TRIPLEX-GHG) in simulating SOC. We estimated the global soil carbon stock to be approximately 1195 Pg C, with 348 Pg C located in the high northern latitudes, which is in good agreement with the well-regarded Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). We also estimated the global soil microbial carbon to be 21 Pg C, similar to the 23 Pg C estimated by Xu et al. (2014). We found that the microbial carbon quantity in the latitudinal direction showed reversions at approximately 30°N, near the equator and at 25°S. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the tundra ecosystem exhibited the highest sensitivity to a 1°C increase or decrease in temperature in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC). However, our work represents the first step toward a new generation of ecosystem process models capable of integrating key microbial processes into soil carbon cycles.

Modeling Global Soil Carbon and Soil Microbial Carbon by Integrating Microbial Processes into the Ecosystem Process Model TRIPLEX-GHG

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Kefeng; Peng, Changhui; Zhu, Qiuan

Microbial physiology plays a critical role in the biogeochemical cycles of the Earth system. However, most traditional soil carbon models are lacking in terms of the representation of key microbial processes that control the soil carbon response to global climate change. In this study, the improved process-based model TRIPLEX-GHG was developed by coupling it with the new MEND (Microbial-ENzyme-mediated Decomposition) model to estimate total global soil organic carbon (SOC) and global soil microbial carbon. The new model (TRIPLEX-MICROBE) shows considerable improvement over the previous version (TRIPLEX-GHG) in simulating SOC. We estimated the global soil carbon stock to be approximately 1195more » Pg C, with 348 Pg C located in the high northern latitudes, which is in good agreement with the well-regarded Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) and the Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). We also estimated the global soil microbial carbon to be 21 Pg C, similar to the 23 Pg C estimated. We found that the microbial carbon quantity in the latitudinal direction showed reversions at approximately 30°N, near the equator and at 25°S. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the tundra ecosystem exhibited the highest sensitivity to a 1°C increase or decrease in temperature in terms of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC). Furthermore, our work represents the first step towards a new generation of ecosystem process models capable of integrating key microbial processes into soil carbon cycles.« less

Global estimation of ocean tides in deep and shallow waters from TOPEX/POSEIDON and numerical models with applications to geophysics, oceanography, and precision altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tierney, Craig Cristy

Presented here are several investigations of ocean tides derived from TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry and numerical models. The purpose of these investigations is to study the short wavelength features in the T/P data and to preserve these wavelengths in global ocean tide models that are accurate in shallow and deep waters. With these new estimates, effects of the tides on loading, Earth's rotation, and tidal energetics are studied. To preserve tidal structure, tides have been estimated along the ground track of T/P by the harmonic and response methods using 4.5 years of data. Results show the two along-track (AT) estimates agree with each other and with other tide models for those components with minimal aliasing problems. Comparisons to global models show that there is tidal structure in the T/P data that is not preserved with current gridding methods. Error estimates suggest there is accurate information in the T/P data from shallow waters that can be used to improve tidal models. It has been shown by Ray and Mitchum (1996) that the first mode baroclinic tide can be separated from AT tide estimates by filtering. This method has been used to estimate the first mode semidiurnal baroclinic tides globally. Estimates for M2 show good correlation with known regions of baroclinic tide generation. Using gridded, filtered AT estimates, a lower bound on the energy contained in the M2 baroclinic tide is 50 PJ. Inspired by the structure found in the AT estimates, a gridding method is presented that preserves tidal structure in the T/P data. These estimates are assimilated into a nonlinear, finite difference, global barotropic tidal model. Results from the 8 major tidal constituents show the model performs equivalently to other models in the deep waters, and is significantly better in the shallow waters. Crossover variance is reduced from 14 cm to 10 cm in the shallow waters. Comparisons to Earth rotation show good agreement to results from VLBI data. Tidal energetics computed from the models show good agreement with previous results. PE/KE ratios and quality factors are more consistent in each frequency band than in previous results.

Whole Atmosphere Simulation of Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, Stanley C.; Liu, Han-Li; Marsh, Daniel R.; McInerney, Joseph M.; Qian, Liying; Vitt, Francis M.

2018-02-01

We simulated anthropogenic global change through the entire atmosphere, including the thermosphere and ionosphere, using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model-eXtended. The basic result was that even as the lower atmosphere gradually warms, the upper atmosphere rapidly cools. The simulations employed constant low solar activity conditions, to remove the effects of variable solar and geomagnetic activity. Global mean annual mean temperature increased at a rate of +0.2 K/decade at the surface and +0.4 K/decade in the upper troposphere but decreased by about -1 K/decade in the stratosphere-mesosphere and -2.8 K/decade in the thermosphere. Near the mesopause, temperature decreases were small compared to the interannual variation, so trends in that region are uncertain. Results were similar to previous modeling confined to specific atmospheric levels and compared favorably with available measurements. These simulations demonstrate the ability of a single comprehensive numerical model to characterize global change throughout the atmosphere.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2.

PubMed

Friend, Andrew D; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F Ian

2014-03-04

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510-758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52-477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended.

Carbon residence time dominates uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses to future climate and atmospheric CO2

PubMed Central

Friend, Andrew D.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Rademacher, Tim T.; Keribin, Rozenn; Betts, Richard; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Falloon, Pete D.; Ito, Akihiko; Kahana, Ron; Kleidon, Axel; Lomas, Mark R.; Nishina, Kazuya; Ostberg, Sebastian; Pavlick, Ryan; Peylin, Philippe; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Vuichard, Nicolas; Warszawski, Lila; Wiltshire, Andy; Woodward, F. Ian

2014-01-01

Future climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 are expected to cause major changes in vegetation structure and function over large fractions of the global land surface. Seven global vegetation models are used to analyze possible responses to future climate simulated by a range of general circulation models run under all four representative concentration pathway scenarios of changing concentrations of greenhouse gases. All 110 simulations predict an increase in global vegetation carbon to 2100, but with substantial variation between vegetation models. For example, at 4 °C of global land surface warming (510–758 ppm of CO2), vegetation carbon increases by 52–477 Pg C (224 Pg C mean), mainly due to CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis. Simulations agree on large regional increases across much of the boreal forest, western Amazonia, central Africa, western China, and southeast Asia, with reductions across southwestern North America, central South America, southern Mediterranean areas, southwestern Africa, and southwestern Australia. Four vegetation models display discontinuities across 4 °C of warming, indicating global thresholds in the balance of positive and negative influences on productivity and biomass. In contrast to previous global vegetation model studies, we emphasize the importance of uncertainties in projected changes in carbon residence times. We find, when all seven models are considered for one representative concentration pathway × general circulation model combination, such uncertainties explain 30% more variation in modeled vegetation carbon change than responses of net primary productivity alone, increasing to 151% for non-HYBRID4 models. A change in research priorities away from production and toward structural dynamics and demographic processes is recommended. PMID:24344265

An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

PubMed

Kang, Sun-Joo

2016-01-01

This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meehl, G A; Covey, C; McAvaney, B

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is designed to allow study and intercomparison of multi-model simulations of present-day and future climate. The latter are represented by idealized forcing of compounded 1% per year CO2 increase to the time of CO2 doubling near year 70 in simulations with global coupled models that contain, typically, components representing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface. Results from CMIP diagnostic subprojects were presented at the Second CMIP Workshop held at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, in September, 2003. Significant progress in diagnosing and understanding results from global coupled models hasmore » been made since the First CMIP Workshop in Melbourne, Australia in 1998. For example, the issue of flux adjustment is slowly fading as more and more models obtain stable multi-century surface climates without them. El Nino variability, usually about half the observed amplitude in the previous generation of coupled models, is now more accurately simulated in the present generation of global coupled models, though there are still biases in simulating the patterns of maximum variability. Typical resolutions of atmospheric component models contained in coupled models is now usually around 2.5 degrees latitude-longitude, with the ocean components often having about twice the atmospheric model resolution, with even higher resolution in the equatorial tropics. Some new-generation coupled models have atmospheric model resolutions of around 1.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Modeling groups now routinely run the CMIP control and 1% CO2 simulations in addition to 20th and 21st century climate simulations with a variety of forcings (e.g. volcanoes, solar variability, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, ozone, and greenhouse gases (GHGs), with the anthropogenic forcings for future climate as well). However, persistent systematic errors noted in previous generations of global coupled models still are present in the present generation (e.g. over-extensive equatorial Pacific cold tongue, double ITCZ). This points to the next challenge for the global coupled climate modeling community. Planning and imminent commencement of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has prompted rapid coupled model development, which will lead to an expanded CMIP-like activity to collect and analyze results for the control, 1% CO2, 20th, 21st and 22nd century simulations performed for the AR4. The international climate community is encouraged to become involved in this analysis effort, and details are provided below in how to do so.« less

GLOBATO: An enhanced global relief model at 30 arc-seconds resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Leary, V.; Amante, C.

2017-12-01

The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), an office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), first developed a digital bathymetric and elevation model, ETOPO5, from publicly available data in 1993. For nearly 25 years, NCEI's ETOPO family of global relief models have supported research at a planetary scale, including tsunami forecasting, ocean circulation modeling, visualization of the seafloor, understanding geological phenomena, and aiding the development of other global and regional elevation models. GLOBATO (GLObal BAThymetry and TOpography) is now the most detailed version released by NCEI with a horizontal resolution of 30 arc-seconds and succeeds ETOPO1 with the inclusion of several new or updated data-sets for the seafloor as well as land areas. GLOBATO is a compilation of data derived from models of satellite measurements, ship depth soundings, and multibeam surveys, as well as regional models developed for Greenland and Antarctica. These data were converted from different formats, resolutions, spatial distributions, and projections into a single global model using GDAL v2.2 and MB-System v5.5. As with previous NCEI models, GLOBATO is available in two formats, "bedrock elevation" (measured as the base of major ice sheets) and "ice surface elevation" (measured as the surface of major ice sheets) which provides comprehensive topographic and bathymetric coverage between +- 90 degrees latitude and +- 180 degrees longitude. Adhering to best practices, GLOBATO, all related digital products, and any supporting documentation are available online through the NCEI data portal. These new, high resolution models will better support the variety of research ETOPO1 has made possible.

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knowland, E. Emma; Keller, Christoph; Nielsen, J. Eric; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc

2017-12-01

Our ability to understand and predict the response of ecosystems to a changing environment depends on quantifying vegetation functional diversity. However, representing this diversity at the global scale is challenging. Typically, in Earth system models, characterization of plant diversity has been limited to grouping related species into plant functional types (PFTs), with all trait variation in a PFT collapsed into a single mean value that is applied globally. Using the largest global plant trait database and state of the art Bayesian modeling, we created fine-grained global maps of plant trait distributions that can be applied to Earth system models. Focusingmore » on a set of plant traits closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration—specific leaf area (SLA) and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (N m) and phosphorus (P m), we characterize how traits vary within and among over 50,000 ~50×50-km cells across the entire vegetated land surface. We do this in several ways—without defining the PFT of each grid cell and using 4 or 14 PFTs; each model’s predictions are evaluated against out-of-sample data. This endeavor advances prior trait mapping by generating global maps that preserve variability across scales by using modern Bayesian spatial statistical modeling in combination with a database over three times larger than that in previous analyses. Our maps further reveal that the most diverse grid cells possess trait variability close to the range of global PFT means.« less

Global biogeochemical implications of mercury discharges from rivers and sediment burial.

PubMed

Amos, Helen M; Jacob, Daniel J; Kocman, David; Horowitz, Hannah M; Zhang, Yanxu; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Horvat, Milena; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Krabbenhoft, David P; Sunderland, Elsie M

2014-08-19

Rivers are an important source of mercury (Hg) to marine ecosystems. Based on an analysis of compiled observations, we estimate global present-day Hg discharges from rivers to ocean margins are 27 ± 13 Mmol a(-1) (5500 ± 2700 Mg a(-1)), of which 28% reaches the open ocean and the rest is deposited to ocean margin sediments. Globally, the source of Hg to the open ocean from rivers amounts to 30% of atmospheric inputs. This is larger than previously estimated due to accounting for elevated concentrations in Asian rivers and variability in offshore transport across different types of estuaries. Riverine inputs of Hg to the North Atlantic have decreased several-fold since the 1970s while inputs to the North Pacific have increased. These trends have large effects on Hg concentrations at ocean margins but are too small in the open ocean to explain observed declines of seawater concentrations in the North Atlantic or increases in the North Pacific. Burial of Hg in ocean margin sediments represents a major sink in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle that has not been previously considered. We find that including this sink in a fully coupled global biogeochemical box model helps to balance the large anthropogenic release of Hg from commercial products recently added to global inventories. It also implies that legacy anthropogenic Hg can be removed from active environmental cycling on a faster time scale (centuries instead of millennia). Natural environmental Hg levels are lower than previously estimated, implying a relatively larger impact from human activity.

Global Carbon Project: the Global Carbon Budget 2015 (V.1.0., issued Nov. 2015 and V.1.1, issued Dec. 2015)

DOE Data Explorer

Le Quere, C. [University of East Anglia, Norwich UK; Moriarty, R. [University of East Anglia, Norwich UK; Andrew, R. M. [Univ. of Oslo (Norway); Canadell, J. G. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra ACT (Australia); Sitch, S. [University of Exeter, Exter UK; Boden, T. A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States) Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC); al., et

2015-01-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations.

Ion exhaust distributions and reconnection location with Magnetospheric Multiscale and global MHD test particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broll, J. M.; Fuselier, S. A.; Trattner, K. J.; Steven, P. M.; Burch, J. L.; Giles, B. L.

2017-12-01

Magnetic reconnection at Earth's dayside magnetopause is an essential process in magnetospheric physics. Under southward IMF conditions, reconnection occurs along a thin ribbon across the dayside magnetopause. The location of this ribbon has been studied extensively in terms of global optimization of quantities like reconnecting field energy or magnetic shear, but with expected errors of 1-2 Earth radii these global models give limited context for cases where an observation is near the reconnection line. Building on previous results, which established the cutoff contour method for locating reconnection using in-situ velocity measurements, we examine the effects of MHD-scale waves on reconnection exhaust distributions. We use a test particle exhaust distribution propagated through a globamagnetohydrodynamics model fields and compare with Magnetospheric Multiscale observations of reconnection exhaust.

History, Structure and Agency in Global Health Governance Comment on "Global Health Governance Challenges 2016 - Are We Ready?"

PubMed

Gill, Stephen; Benatar, Solomon R

2016-08-29

Ilona Kickbusch's thought provoking editorial is criticized in this commentary, partly because she fails to refer to previous critical work on the global conditions and policies that sustain inequality, poverty, poor health and damage to the biosphere and, as a result, she misreads global power and elides consideration of the fundamental historical structures of political and material power that shape agency in global health governance. We also doubt that global health can be improved through structures and processes of multilateralism that are premised on the continued reproduction of the ecologically myopic and socially unsustainable market civilization model of capitalist development that currently prevails in the world economy. This model drives net financial flows from poor to rich countries and from the poor to the affluent and super wealthy individuals. By contrast, we suggest that significant progress in global health requires a profound and socially just restructuring of global power, greater global solidarity and the "development of sustainability." © 2017 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Steady-state global optimization of metabolic non-linear dynamic models through recasting into power-law canonical models

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Design of newly engineered microbial strains for biotechnological purposes would greatly benefit from the development of realistic mathematical models for the processes to be optimized. Such models can then be analyzed and, with the development and application of appropriate optimization techniques, one could identify the modifications that need to be made to the organism in order to achieve the desired biotechnological goal. As appropriate models to perform such an analysis are necessarily non-linear and typically non-convex, finding their global optimum is a challenging task. Canonical modeling techniques, such as Generalized Mass Action (GMA) models based on the power-law formalism, offer a possible solution to this problem because they have a mathematical structure that enables the development of specific algorithms for global optimization. Results Based on the GMA canonical representation, we have developed in previous works a highly efficient optimization algorithm and a set of related strategies for understanding the evolution of adaptive responses in cellular metabolism. Here, we explore the possibility of recasting kinetic non-linear models into an equivalent GMA model, so that global optimization on the recast GMA model can be performed. With this technique, optimization is greatly facilitated and the results are transposable to the original non-linear problem. This procedure is straightforward for a particular class of non-linear models known as Saturable and Cooperative (SC) models that extend the power-law formalism to deal with saturation and cooperativity. Conclusions Our results show that recasting non-linear kinetic models into GMA models is indeed an appropriate strategy that helps overcoming some of the numerical difficulties that arise during the global optimization task. PMID:21867520

Global-scale carbon and energy flows through the marine planktonic food web: An analysis with a coupled physical-biological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, Charles A.; Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.

2014-01-01

Global-scale planktonic ecosystem models exhibit large differences in simulated net primary production (NPP) and assessment of planktonic food web fluxes beyond primary producers has been limited, diminishing confidence in carbon flux estimates from these models. In this study, a global ocean-ice-ecosystem model was assessed against a suite of observation-based planktonic food web flux estimates, many of which were not considered in previous modeling studies. The simulation successfully captured cross-biome differences and similarities in these fluxes after calibration of a limited number of highly uncertain yet influential parameters. The resulting comprehensive carbon budgets suggested that shortened food webs, elevated growth efficiencies, and tight consumer-resource coupling enable oceanic upwelling systems to support 45% of pelagic mesozooplankton production despite accounting for only 22% of ocean area and 34% of NPP. In seasonally stratified regions (42% of ocean area and 40% of NPP), weakened consumer-resource coupling tempers mesozooplankton production to 41% and enhances export below 100 m to 48% of the global total. In oligotrophic systems (36% of ocean area and 26% of NPP), the dominance of small phytoplankton and low consumer growth efficiencies supported only 14% of mesozooplankton production and 17% of export globally. Bacterial production, in contrast, was maintained in nearly constant proportion to primary production across biomes through the compensating effects of increased partitioning of NPP to the microbial food web in oligotrophic ecosystems and increased bacterial growth efficiencies in more productive areas. Cross-biome differences in mesozooplankton trophic level were muted relative to those invoked by previous work such that significant differences in consumer growth efficiencies and the strength of consumer-resource coupling were needed to explain sharp cross-biome differences in mesozooplankton production. Lastly, simultaneous consideration of multiple flux constraints supports a highly distributed view of respiration across the planktonic food web rather than one dominated by heterotrophic bacteria. The solution herein is unlikely unique in its ability to explain observed cross-biome energy flow patterns and notable misfits remain. Resolution of existing uncertainties in observed biome-scale productivity and increasingly mechanistic physical and biological model components should yield significant refinements to estimates herein.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Gareth; Griffin, Jonathan; Lovholt, Finn; Glimsdal, Sylfest; Harbitz, Carl; Thio, Hong Kie; Lorito, Stefano; Basili, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Geist, Eric L.; Baptista, Maria Ana

2017-01-01

Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.

Decadal trends in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll: A new assessment integrating multiple satellites, in situ data, and models.

PubMed

Gregg, Watson W; Rousseaux, Cécile S

2014-09-01

Quantifying change in ocean biology using satellites is a major scientific objective. We document trends globally for the period 1998-2012 by integrating three diverse methodologies: ocean color data from multiple satellites, bias correction methods based on in situ data, and data assimilation to provide a consistent and complete global representation free of sampling biases. The results indicated no significant trend in global pelagic ocean chlorophyll over the 15 year data record. These results were consistent with previous findings that were based on the first 6 years and first 10 years of the SeaWiFS mission. However, all of the Northern Hemisphere basins (north of 10° latitude), as well as the Equatorial Indian basin, exhibited significant declines in chlorophyll. Trend maps showed the local trends and their change in percent per year. These trend maps were compared with several other previous efforts using only a single sensor (SeaWiFS) and more limited time series, showing remarkable consistency. These results suggested the present effort provides a path forward to quantifying global ocean trends using multiple satellite missions, which is essential if we are to understand the state, variability, and possible changes in the global oceans over longer time scales.

ForC: a global database of forest carbon stocks and fluxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; Wang, Maria M. H.; McGarvey, Jennifer C.

Forests play an influential role in the global carbon (C) cycle, storing roughly half of terrestrial C and annually exchanging with the atmosphere more than ten times the carbon dioxide (CO 2) emitted by anthropogenic activities. Yet, scaling up from ground-based measurements of forest C stocks and fluxes to understand global scale C cycling and its climate sensitivity remains an important challenge. Tens of thousands of forest C measurements have been made, but these data have yet to be integrated into a single database that makes them accessible for integrated analyses. Here we present an open-access global Forest Carbon databasemore » (ForC) containing records of ground-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes, along with disturbance history and methodological information. ForC expands upon the previously published tropical portion of this database, TropForC (DOI: 10.5061/dryad.t516f), now including 17,538 records (previously 3568) representing 2,731 plots (previously 845) in 826 geographically distinct areas (previously 178). The database covers all forested biogeographic and climate zones, represents forest stands of all ages, and includes 89 C cycle variables collected between 1934 and 2015. We expect that ForC will prove useful for macroecological analyses of forest C cycling, for evaluation of model predictions or remote sensing products, for quantifying the contribution of forests to the global C cycle, and for supporting international efforts to inventory forest carbon and greenhouse gas exchange. A dynamic version of ForC-db is maintained at https://github.com/forc-db, and we encourage the research community to collaborate in updating, correcting, expanding, and utilizing this database.« less

Agricultural Management Practices Explain Variation in Global Yield Gaps of Major Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, N. D.; Gerber, J. S.; Ray, D. K.; Ramankutty, N.; Foley, J. A.

2010-12-01

The continued expansion and intensification of agriculture are key drivers of global environmental change. Meeting a doubling of food demand in the next half-century will further induce environmental change, requiring either large cropland expansion into carbon- and biodiversity-rich tropical forests or increasing yields on existing croplands. Closing the “yield gaps” between the most and least productive farmers on current agricultural lands is a necessary and major step towards preserving natural ecosystems and meeting future food demand. Here we use global climate, soils, and cropland datasets to quantify yield gaps for major crops using equal-area climate analogs. Consistent with previous studies, we find large yield gaps for many crops in Eastern Europe, tropical Africa, and parts of Mexico. To analyze the drivers of yield gaps, we collected sub-national agricultural management data and built a global dataset of fertilizer application rates for over 160 crops. We constructed empirical crop yield models for each climate analog using the global management information for 17 major crops. We find that our climate-specific models explain a substantial amount of the global variation in yields. These models could be widely applied to identify management changes needed to close yield gaps, analyze the environmental impacts of agricultural intensification, and identify climate change adaptation techniques.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, G; Nemani, R

2015-09-01

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Iron control on global productivity: an efficient inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphate and iron cycles.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasquier, B.; Holzer, M.; Frants, M.

2016-02-01

We construct a data-constrained mechanistic inverse model of the ocean's coupled phosphorus and iron cycles. The nutrient cycling is embedded in a data-assimilated steady global circulation. Biological nutrient uptake is parameterized in terms of nutrient, light, and temperature limitations on growth for two classes of phytoplankton that are not transported explicitly. A matrix formulation of the discretized nutrient tracer equations allows for efficient numerical solutions, which facilitates the objective optimization of the key biogeochemical parameters. The optimization minimizes the misfit between the modelled and observed nutrient fields of the current climate. We systematically assess the nonlinear response of the biological pump to changes in the aeolian iron supply for a variety of scenarios. Specifically, Green-function techniques are employed to quantify in detail the pathways and timescales with which those perturbations are propagated throughout the world oceans, determining the global teleconnections that mediate the response of the global ocean ecosystem. We confirm previous findings from idealized studies that increased iron fertilization decreases biological production in the subtropical gyres and we quantify the counterintuitive and asymmetric response of global productivity to increases and decreases in the aeolian iron supply.

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-06-01

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Statistical evaluation of substorm strength and onset times in a global MHD model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haiducek, J. D.; Welling, D. T.; Morley, S.; Ganushkina, N. Y.

2016-12-01

Magnetospheric substorms are characterized by an explosive release of energy stored in the magnetotail, resulting in a tailward plasmoid release, magnetic field perturbations which reach the ground, and a brightening of the aurora. The basic energy release process has been reproduced in magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the global magnetosphere, but previous studies of substorms using MHD have been limited to case studies covering one or a few events. The lack of large-scale validation studies, and the fact that most MHD models rely on numerical or ad-hoc resistivity to produce the reconnection necessary for substorms, has led some to question the suitability of MHD for studying substorms. However, MHD models are able to capture global implications of substorms, including magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, dipolarizations, and magnetic field perturbations at the surface, providing a compelling motivation to understand and improve substorm physics in global MHD.The present work seeks to assess the capabilities and limitations of MHD with respect to capturing substorms. We identify substorms in long (one month of simulation time) simulations and compare these to observations during the same time period. To reduce the risk of mis-identifying other phenomena as substorms, we use multiple signatures for the identification, including ground-based magnetic field in mid and high latitudes, plasmoid releases, dipolarization signatures, particle injections, and auroral imagery. We evaluate the model in terms of substorm frequency, strength, location, and timing. We model the same time period using the Minimal Substorm Model, which solves an energy balance equation based on solar wind input. This model has been previously shown to produce substorms at a realistic frequency given solar wind conditions; by comparing it to the MHD we are able to assess the relative importance of MHD physics in terms of substorm timing and occurrence rate. We compute a superposed epoch analysis (SEA) of the substorm "hits" (events that occurred in both the model and observations), "misses" (events that occurred only in observations), and false positives. The SEA result serves as a representative scenario with which we evaluate new model configurations in terms of their ability to reproduce substorm dynamics.

Paleosecular variation and time-averaged field analysis over the last 10 Ma from a new global dataset (PSV10)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cromwell, G.; Johnson, C. L.; Tauxe, L.; Constable, C.; Jarboe, N.

2015-12-01

Previous paleosecular variation (PSV) and time-averaged field (TAF) models draw on compilations of paleodirectional data that lack equatorial and high latitude sites and use latitudinal virtual geomagnetic pole (VGP) cutoffs designed to remove transitional field directions. We present a new selected global dataset (PSV10) of paleodirectional data spanning the last 10 Ma. We include all results calculated with modern laboratory methods, regardless of site VGP colatitude, that meet statistically derived selection criteria. We exclude studies that target transitional field states or identify significant tectonic effects, and correct for any bias from serial correlation by averaging directions from sequential lava flows. PSV10 has an improved global distribution compared with previous compilations, comprising 1519 sites from 71 studies. VGP dispersion in PSV10 varies with latitude, exhibiting substantially higher values in the southern hemisphere than at corresponding northern latitudes. Inclination anomaly estimates at many latitudes are within error of an expected GAD field, but significant negative anomalies are found at equatorial and mid-northern latitudes. Current PSV models Model G and TK03 do not fit observed PSV or TAF latitudinal behavior in PSV10, or subsets of normal and reverse polarity data, particularly for southern hemisphere sites. Attempts to fit these observations with simple modifications to TK03 showed slight statistical improvements, but still exceed acceptable errors. The root-mean-square misfit of TK03 (and subsequent iterations) is substantially lower for the normal polarity subset of PSV10, compared to reverse polarity data. Two-thirds of data in PSV10 are normal polarity, most which are from the last 5 Ma, so we develop a new TAF model using this subset of data. We use the resulting TAF model to explore whether new statistical PSV models can better describe our new global compilation.

Multimillennium changes in dissolved oxygen under global warming: results from an AOGCM and offline ocean biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Oka, A.; Takahashi, K.; Ohgaito, R.; Yamanaka, Y.

2016-12-01

Long-term oceanic oxygen change due to global warming is still unclear; most future projections (such as CMIP5) are only performed until 2100. Indeed, few previous studies using conceptual models project oxygen change in the next thousands of years, showing persistent global oxygen reduction by about 30% in the next 2000 years, even after atmospheric carbon dioxide stops rising. Yet, these models cannot sufficiently represent the ocean circulation change: the key driver of oxygen change. Moreover, considering serious effect oxygen reduction has on marine life and biogeochemical cycling, long-term oxygen change should be projected for higher validity. Therefore, we used a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) and an offline ocean biogeochemical model, investigating realistic long-term changes in oceanic oxygen concentration and ocean circulation. We integrated these models for 2000 years under atmospheric CO2 doubling and quadrupling. After global oxygen reduction in the first 500 years, oxygen concentration in deep ocean globally recovers and overshoots, despite surface oxygen decrease and weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea recovers and overshoots, after initial cessation. Thus, enhanced deep convection and associated Antarctic Bottom Water supply oxygen-rich surface waters to deep ocean, resulting global deep ocean oxygenation. We conclude that the change in ocean circulation in the Southern Ocean potentially drives millennial-scale oxygenation in the deep ocean; contrary to past reported long-term oxygen reduction and general expectation. In presentation, we will discuss the mechanism of response of deep ocean convection in the Weddell Sea and show the volume changes of hypoxic waters.

Integration Processes Compared: Cortical Differences for Consistency Evaluation and Passive Comprehension in Local and Global Coherence.

PubMed

Egidi, Giovanna; Caramazza, Alfonso

2016-10-01

This research studies the neural systems underlying two integration processes that take place during natural discourse comprehension: consistency evaluation and passive comprehension. Evaluation was operationalized with a consistency judgment task and passive comprehension with a passive listening task. Using fMRI, the experiment examined the integration of incoming sentences with more recent, local context and with more distal, global context in these two tasks. The stimuli were stories in which we manipulated the consistency of the endings with the local context and the relevance of the global context for the integration of the endings. A whole-brain analysis revealed several differences between the two tasks. Two networks previously associated with semantic processing and attention orienting showed more activation during the judgment than the passive listening task. A network previously associated with episodic memory retrieval and construction of mental scenes showed greater activity when global context was relevant, but only during the judgment task. This suggests that evaluation, more than passive listening, triggers the reinstantiation of global context and the construction of a rich mental model for the story. Finally, a network previously linked to fluent updating of a knowledge base showed greater activity for locally consistent endings than inconsistent ones, but only during passive listening, suggesting a mode of comprehension that relies on a local scope approach to language processing. Taken together, these results show that consistency evaluation and passive comprehension weigh differently on distal and local information and are implemented, in part, by different brain networks.

The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands.

PubMed

Campbell, J Elliott; Lobell, David B; Genova, Robert C; Field, Christopher B

2008-08-01

Converting forest lands into bioenergy agriculture could accelerate climate change by emitting carbon stored in forests, while converting food agriculture lands into bioenergy agriculture could threaten food security. Both problems are potentially avoided by using abandoned agriculture lands for bioenergy agriculture. Here we show the global potential for bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands to be less than 8% of current primary energy demand, based on historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover data, and global ecosystem modeling. The estimated global area of abandoned agriculture is 385-472 million hectares, or 66-110% of the areas reported in previous preliminary assessments. The area-weighted mean production of above-ground biomass is 4.3 tons ha(-1) y(-1), in contrast to estimates of up to 10 tons ha(-1) y(-1) in previous assessments. The energy content of potential biomass grown on 100% of abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current energy demand is low.

The New Global Gapless GLASS Albedo Product from 1981 to 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dou, B.; Liu, Q.; Qu, Y.; Wang, L.; Feng, Y.; Nie, A.; Li, X.; Zhang, J.; Niu, H.; Cai, E.; Zhao, L.

2016-12-01

Long-time series and various spatial resolution albedo products are needed for climate change and environmental studies at both global and regional scale. To meet these requirements, GLASS (Global LAnd Surface Satellites) gapless albedo product from 1981 to 2010 was firstly released in 2012 and widely used in long-term earth change researches. However, only shortwave albedo product in spatial resolution of 0.05 degree and 1 km were provided, which limits extensive applications for visible and near-infrared bands. Thus, new GLASS albedo product are produced and comprehensively enhanced in time series, algorithm and product content. Five major updates are conducted: 1) Time region is expanded from 1981-2010 to 1981-2014; 2) Physically ART (radiative transfer theory) and TCOWA (Three-Component Ocean Water Albedo) models rather than previous RTLSR (Rose-Thick Li-Sparse Reciprocal kernel combination) model are adopted for snow and inland water albedo estimation, respectively; 3) global shortwave, visible, and near-infrared albedos in spatial resolution of 0.05 degree and 1 km are released; 4) Clear-sky albedo is provided beyond the traditional black-sky albedo and white sky-albedo for amateurish user; 5) 250 m albedo product is provided in part of global for regional application. In this study, we firstly detail the updates of this inspiring product. Then the product is compared with the previous GLASS albedo product and preliminary assessed against field measurements under various land covers. Significant improvements are reported for snow and water albedo. The results demonstrate that the new GLASS albedo product is a gapless, long-term continuous, and self-consistent data-set. Comparing to previous GLASS albedo product, lower black-sky albedo and higher white-sky albedo are proved for permanent snow-cover region. Moreover, higher albedo of inland water and seasonal snow-cover mountain are captured. This product brings new chance and view to understanding long-term earth process and change.

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

PubMed

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of mid-latitude atmospheric variability in CMIP5 models using a process oriented-metric

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Biagio, Valeria; Calmanti, Sandro; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro; Ruti, Paolo

2013-04-01

We compare, for the period 1962-2000, an estimate of the northern hemisphere mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability according several global climate models included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with the results of the models belonging to the previous CMIP3 and with the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. We use the space-time Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields to characterize the variability of atmospheric circulation regimes and we introduce an ad hoc integral measure of the variability observed in the Northern Hemisphere on different spectral sub-domains. The overall performance of each model is evaluated by considering the total wave variability as a global scalar measure of the statistical properties of different types of atmospheric disturbances. The variability associated to eastward propagating baroclinic waves and to planetary waves is instead used to describe the performance of each model in terms of specific physical processes. We find that the two model ensembles (CMIP3 and CMIP5) do not show substantial differences in the description of northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability, although some CMIP5 models display performances superior to their previous versions implemented in CMIP3. Preliminary results for the 21th century RCP 4.5 scenario will be also discussed for the CMIP5 models.

Simplified ISCCP cloud regimes for evaluating cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

We take advantage of ISCCP simulator data available for many models that participated in CMIP5, in order to introduce a framework for comparing model cloud output with corresponding ISCCP observations based on the cloud regime (CR) concept. Simplified global CRs are employed derived from the co-variations of three variables, namely cloud optical thickness, cloud top pressure and cloud fraction ( τ, p c , CF). Following evaluation criteria established in a companion paper of ours (Jin et al. 2016), we assess model cloud simulation performance based on how well the simplified CRs are simulated in terms of similarity of centroids, global values and map correlations of relative-frequency-of-occurrence, and long-term total cloud amounts. Mirroring prior results, modeled clouds tend to be too optically thick and not as extensive as in observations. CRs with high-altitude clouds from storm activity are not as well simulated here compared to the previous study, but other regimes containing near-overcast low clouds show improvement. Models that have performed well in the companion paper against CRs defined by joint τ- p c histograms distinguish themselves again here, but improvements for previously underperforming models are also seen. Averaging across models does not yield a drastically better picture, except for cloud geographical locations. Cloud evaluation with simplified regimes seems thus more forgiving than that using histogram-based CRs while still strict enough to reveal model weaknesses.

Exploring the role of movement in determining the global distribution of marine biomass using a coupled hydrodynamic - Size-based ecosystem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watson, James R.; Stock, Charles A.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2015-11-01

Modeling the dynamics of marine populations at a global scale - from phytoplankton to fish - is necessary if we are to quantify how climate change and other broad-scale anthropogenic actions affect the supply of marine-based food. Here, we estimate the abundance and distribution of fish biomass using a simple size-based food web model coupled to simulations of global ocean physics and biogeochemistry. We focus on the spatial distribution of biomass, identifying highly productive regions - shelf seas, western boundary currents and major upwelling zones. In the absence of fishing, we estimate the total ocean fish biomass to be ∼ 2.84 ×109 tonnes, similar to previous estimates. However, this value is sensitive to the choice of parameters, and further, allowing fish to move had a profound impact on the spatial distribution of fish biomass and the structure of marine communities. In particular, when movement is implemented the viable range of large predators is greatly increased, and stunted biomass spectra characterizing large ocean regions in simulations without movement, are replaced with expanded spectra that include large predators. These results highlight the importance of considering movement in global-scale ecological models.

Global Neural Pattern Similarity as a Common Basis for Categorization and Recognition Memory

PubMed Central

Xue, Gui; Love, Bradley C.; Preston, Alison R.; Poldrack, Russell A.

2014-01-01

Familiarity, or memory strength, is a central construct in models of cognition. In previous categorization and long-term memory research, correlations have been found between psychological measures of memory strength and activation in the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), which suggests a common neural locus for memory strength. However, activation alone is insufficient for determining whether the same mechanisms underlie neural function across domains. Guided by mathematical models of categorization and long-term memory, we develop a theory and a method to test whether memory strength arises from the global similarity among neural representations. In human subjects, we find significant correlations between global similarity among activation patterns in the MTLs and both subsequent memory confidence in a recognition memory task and model-based measures of memory strength in a category learning task. Our work bridges formal cognitive theories and neuroscientific models by illustrating that the same global similarity computations underlie processing in multiple cognitive domains. Moreover, by establishing a link between neural similarity and psychological memory strength, our findings suggest that there may be an isomorphism between psychological and neural representational spaces that can be exploited to test cognitive theories at both the neural and behavioral levels. PMID:24872552

Global Motions of the Nuclear Pore Complex: Insights from Elastic Network Models

PubMed Central

Lezon, Timothy R.; Sali, Andrej; Bahar, Ivet

2009-01-01

The nuclear pore complex (NPC) is the gate to the nucleus. Recent determination of the configuration of proteins in the yeast NPC at ∼5 nm resolution permits us to study the NPC global dynamics using coarse-grained structural models. We investigate these large-scale motions by using an extended elastic network model (ENM) formalism applied to several coarse-grained representations of the NPC. Two types of collective motions (global modes) are predicted by the ENMs to be intrinsically favored by the NPC architecture: global bending and extension/contraction from circular to elliptical shapes. These motions are shown to be robust against tested variations in the representation of the NPC, and are largely captured by a simple model of a toroid with axially varying mass density. We demonstrate that spoke multiplicity significantly affects the accessible number of symmetric low-energy modes of motion; the NPC-like toroidal structures composed of 8 spokes have access to highly cooperative symmetric motions that are inaccessible to toroids composed of 7 or 9 spokes. The analysis reveals modes of motion that may facilitate macromolecular transport through the NPC, consistent with previous experimental observations. PMID:19730674

Global motions of the nuclear pore complex: insights from elastic network models.

PubMed

Lezon, Timothy R; Sali, Andrej; Bahar, Ivet

2009-09-01

The nuclear pore complex (NPC) is the gate to the nucleus. Recent determination of the configuration of proteins in the yeast NPC at approximately 5 nm resolution permits us to study the NPC global dynamics using coarse-grained structural models. We investigate these large-scale motions by using an extended elastic network model (ENM) formalism applied to several coarse-grained representations of the NPC. Two types of collective motions (global modes) are predicted by the ENMs to be intrinsically favored by the NPC architecture: global bending and extension/contraction from circular to elliptical shapes. These motions are shown to be robust against tested variations in the representation of the NPC, and are largely captured by a simple model of a toroid with axially varying mass density. We demonstrate that spoke multiplicity significantly affects the accessible number of symmetric low-energy modes of motion; the NPC-like toroidal structures composed of 8 spokes have access to highly cooperative symmetric motions that are inaccessible to toroids composed of 7 or 9 spokes. The analysis reveals modes of motion that may facilitate macromolecular transport through the NPC, consistent with previous experimental observations.

High-resolution assessment of land use impacts on biodiversity in life cycle assessment using species habitat suitability models.

PubMed

de Baan, Laura; Curran, Michael; Rondinini, Carlo; Visconti, Piero; Hellweg, Stefanie; Koellner, Thomas

2015-02-17

Agricultural land use is a main driver of global biodiversity loss. The assessment of land use impacts in decision-support tools such as life cycle assessment (LCA) requires spatially explicit models, but existing approaches are either not spatially differentiated or modeled at very coarse scales (e.g., biomes or ecoregions). In this paper, we develop a high-resolution (900 m) assessment method for land use impacts on biodiversity based on habitat suitability models (HSM) of mammal species. This method considers potential land use effects on individual species, and impacts are weighted by the species' conservation status and global rarity. We illustrate the method using a case study of crop production in East Africa, but the underlying HSMs developed by the Global Mammals Assessment are available globally. We calculate impacts of three major export crops and compare the results to two previously developed methods (focusing on local and regional impacts, respectively) to assess the relevance of the methodological innovations proposed in this paper. The results highlight hotspots of product-related biodiversity impacts that help characterize the links among agricultural production, consumption, and biodiversity loss.

Improving Distributed Diagnosis Through Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bregon, Anibal; Daigle, Matthew John; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Biswas, Gautam; Koutsoukos, Xenofon; Pulido, Belarmino

2011-01-01

Complex engineering systems require efficient fault diagnosis methodologies, but centralized approaches do not scale well, and this motivates the development of distributed solutions. This work presents an event-based approach for distributed diagnosis of abrupt parametric faults in continuous systems, by using the structural model decomposition capabilities provided by Possible Conflicts. We develop a distributed diagnosis algorithm that uses residuals computed by extending Possible Conflicts to build local event-based diagnosers based on global diagnosability analysis. The proposed approach is applied to a multitank system, and results demonstrate an improvement in the design of local diagnosers. Since local diagnosers use only a subset of the residuals, and use subsystem models to compute residuals (instead of the global system model), the local diagnosers are more efficient than previously developed distributed approaches.

Shell Tectonics: A Mechanical Model for Strike-slip Displacement on Europa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhoden, Alyssa Rose; Wurman, Gilead; Huff, Eric M.; Manga, Michael; Hurford, Terry A.

2012-01-01

We introduce a new mechanical model for producing tidally-driven strike-slip displacement along preexisting faults on Europa, which we call shell tectonics. This model differs from previous models of strike-slip on icy satellites by incorporating a Coulomb failure criterion, approximating a viscoelastic rheology, determining the slip direction based on the gradient of the tidal shear stress rather than its sign, and quantitatively determining the net offset over many orbits. This model allows us to predict the direction of net displacement along faults and determine relative accumulation rate of displacement. To test the shell tectonics model, we generate global predictions of slip direction and compare them with the observed global pattern of strike-slip displacement on Europa in which left-lateral faults dominate far north of the equator, right-lateral faults dominate in the far south, and near-equatorial regions display a mixture of both types of faults. The shell tectonics model reproduces this global pattern. Incorporating a small obliquity into calculations of tidal stresses, which are used as inputs to the shell tectonics model, can also explain regional differences in strike-slip fault populations. We also discuss implications for fault azimuths, fault depth, and Europa's tectonic history.

Global Persistent Attack: A Systems Architecture, Process Modeling, and Risk Analysis Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

develop an analysis process for quantifying risk associated with the limitations presented by a fiscally constrained environment. The second step...previous independent analysis of each force structure provided information for quantifying risk associated with the given force presentations, the

Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

2012-12-01

It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

Intercomparison and Evaluation of Global Aerosol Microphysical Properties Among Aerocom Models of a Range of Complexity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, G. W.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C. L.; Pringle, K. J.; Schulz, M.; Asmi, A.; Spracklen, D. V.; Ridley, D. A.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Lee, L. A.;

Deep Visual Attention Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

2018-05-01

In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

Integrative eQTL analysis of tumor and host omics data in individuals with bladder cancer.

PubMed

Pineda, Silvia; Van Steen, Kristel; Malats, Núria

2017-09-01

Integrative analyses of several omics data are emerging. The data are usually generated from the same source material (i.e., tumor sample) representing one level of regulation. However, integrating different regulatory levels (i.e., blood) with those from tumor may also reveal important knowledge about the human genetic architecture. To model this multilevel structure, an integrative-expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis applying two-stage regression (2SR) was proposed. This approach first regressed tumor gene expression levels with tumor markers and the adjusted residuals from the previous model were then regressed with the germline genotypes measured in blood. Previously, we demonstrated that penalized regression methods in combination with a permutation-based MaxT method (Global-LASSO) is a promising tool to fix some of the challenges that high-throughput omics data analysis imposes. Here, we assessed whether Global-LASSO can also be applied when tumor and blood omics data are integrated. We further compared our strategy with two 2SR-approaches, one using multiple linear regression (2SR-MLR) and other using LASSO (2SR-LASSO). We applied the three models to integrate genomic, epigenomic, and transcriptomic data from tumor tissue with blood germline genotypes from 181 individuals with bladder cancer included in the TCGA Consortium. Global-LASSO provided a larger list of eQTLs than the 2SR methods, identified a previously reported eQTLs in prostate stem cell antigen (PSCA), and provided further clues on the complexity of APBEC3B loci, with a minimal false-positive rate not achieved by 2SR-MLR. It also represents an important contribution for omics integrative analysis because it is easy to apply and adaptable to any type of data. © 2017 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

A comparative study of theoretical graph models for characterizing structural networks of human brain.

PubMed

Li, Xiaojin; Hu, Xintao; Jin, Changfeng; Han, Junwei; Liu, Tianming; Guo, Lei; Hao, Wei; Li, Lingjiang

2013-01-01

Previous studies have investigated both structural and functional brain networks via graph-theoretical methods. However, there is an important issue that has not been adequately discussed before: what is the optimal theoretical graph model for describing the structural networks of human brain? In this paper, we perform a comparative study to address this problem. Firstly, large-scale cortical regions of interest (ROIs) are localized by recently developed and validated brain reference system named Dense Individualized Common Connectivity-based Cortical Landmarks (DICCCOL) to address the limitations in the identification of the brain network ROIs in previous studies. Then, we construct structural brain networks based on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) data. Afterwards, the global and local graph properties of the constructed structural brain networks are measured using the state-of-the-art graph analysis algorithms and tools and are further compared with seven popular theoretical graph models. In addition, we compare the topological properties between two graph models, namely, stickiness-index-based model (STICKY) and scale-free gene duplication model (SF-GD), that have higher similarity with the real structural brain networks in terms of global and local graph properties. Our experimental results suggest that among the seven theoretical graph models compared in this study, STICKY and SF-GD models have better performances in characterizing the structural human brain network.

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, Christoph A.; Knowland, K. Emma; Nielsen, Jon E.; Orbe, Clara; Ott, Lesley; Pawson, Steven; Saunders, Emily; Duncan, Bryan; Follette-Cook, Melanie; Liu, Junhua;

Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

2014-12-01

Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

Multi-water-bag models of ion temperature gradient instability in cylindrical geometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coulette, David; Besse, Nicolas

2013-05-15

Ion temperature gradient instabilities play a major role in the understanding of anomalous transport in core fusion plasmas. In the considered cylindrical geometry, ion dynamics is described using a drift-kinetic multi-water-bag model for the parallel velocity dependency of the ion distribution function. In a first stage, global linear stability analysis is performed. From the obtained normal modes, parametric dependencies of the main spectral characteristics of the instability are then examined. Comparison of the multi-water-bag results with a reference continuous Maxwellian case allows us to evaluate the effects of discrete parallel velocity sampling induced by the Multi-Water-Bag model. Differences between themore » global model and local models considered in previous works are discussed. Using results from linear, quasilinear, and nonlinear numerical simulations, an analysis of the first stage saturation dynamics of the instability is proposed, where the divergence between the three models is examined.« less

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Global thermal models of the lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cammarano, F.; Guerri, M.

2017-12-01

Unraveling the thermal structure of the outermost shell of our planet is key for understanding its evolution. We obtain temperatures from interpretation of global shear-velocity (VS) models. Long-wavelength thermal structure is well determined by seismic models and only slightly affected by compositional effects and uncertainties in mineral-physics properties. Absolute temperatures and gradients with depth, however, are not well constrained. Adding constraints from petrology, heat-flow observations and thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere help to better estimate absolute temperatures in the top part of the lithosphere. We produce global thermal models of the lithosphere at different spatial resolution, up to spherical-harmonics degree 24, and provide estimated standard deviations. We provide purely seismic thermal (TS) model and hybrid models where temperatures are corrected with steady-state conductive geotherms on continents and cooling model temperatures on oceanic regions. All relevant physical properties, with the exception of thermal conductivity, are based on a self-consistent thermodynamical modelling approach. Our global thermal models also include density and compressional-wave velocities (VP) as obtained either assuming no lateral variations in composition or a simple reference 3-D compositional structure, which takes into account a chemically depleted continental lithosphere. We found that seismically-derived temperatures in continental lithosphere fit well, overall, with continental geotherms, but a large variation in radiogenic heat is required to reconcile them with heat flow (long wavelength) observations. Oceanic shallow lithosphere below mid-oceanic ridges and young oceans is colder than expected, confirming the possible presence of a dehydration boundary around 80 km depth already suggested in previous studies. The global thermal models should serve as the basis to move at a smaller spatial scale, where additional thermo-chemical variations required by geophysical observations can be included.

Analysis of terrain map matching using multisensing techniques for applications to autonomous vehicle navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Page, Lance; Shen, C. N.

1991-01-01

This paper describes skyline-based terrain matching, a new method for locating the vantage point of laser range-finding measurements on a global map previously prepared by satellite or aerial mapping. Skylines can be extracted from the range-finding measurements and modelled from the global map, and are represented in parametric, cylindrical form with azimuth angle as the independent variable. The three translational parameters of the vantage point are determined with a three-dimensional matching of these two sets of skylines.

Global Modeling of Tropospheric Chemistry with Assimilated Meteorology: Model Description and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bey, Isabelle; Jacob, Daniel J.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Field, Brendan D.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Li, Qin-Bin; Liu, Hong-Yu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Schultz, Martin G.

2001-01-01

We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source from the ocean may be implicated.

Global Core Plasma Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, Paul D.; Comfort, Richard H.

1999-01-01

Over 40 years of ground and spacecraft plasmaspheric measurements have resulted in many statistical descriptions of plasmaspheric properties. In some cases, these properties have been represented as analytical descriptions that are valid for specific regions or conditions. For the most part, what has not been done is to extend regional empirical descriptions or models to the plasmasphere as a whole. In contrast, many related investigations depend on the use of representative plasmaspheric conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. Wave propagation, involving the transport of energy through the magnetosphere, is strongly affected by thermal plasma density and its composition. Ring current collisional and wave particle losses also strongly depend on these quantities. Plasmaspheric also plays a secondary role in influencing radio signals from the Global Positioning System satellites. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is an attempt to assimilate previous empirical evidence and regional models for plasmaspheric density into a continuous, smooth model of thermal plasma density in the inner magnetosphere. In that spirit, the International Reference Ionosphere is currently used to complete the low altitude description of density and composition in the model. The models and measurements on which the GCPM is currently based and its relationship to IRI will be discussed.

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

PubMed Central

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L.; Clark, Douglas B.; Arnell, Nigel W.; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M.; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N.; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M.; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-01-01

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty. PMID:24344266

Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment.

PubMed

Prudhomme, Christel; Giuntoli, Ignazio; Robinson, Emma L; Clark, Douglas B; Arnell, Nigel W; Dankers, Rutger; Fekete, Balázs M; Franssen, Wietse; Gerten, Dieter; Gosling, Simon N; Hagemann, Stefan; Hannah, David M; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik

2014-03-04

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

GTAP model and database modification to better handle cropping changes on the intensive margin.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-25

Previously, induced land use change estimates considered only the extensive margin; that is, adding to harvested area by converting forest or pasture to cropland. However, recent data suggests that some of the increase in global harvested area comes ...

A New Estimate of North American Mountain Snow Accumulation From Regional Climate Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Durand, Michael T.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Zhang, Yu; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.

2018-02-01

Despite the importance of mountain snowpack to understanding the water and energy cycles in North America's montane regions, no reliable mountain snow climatology exists for the entire continent. We present a new estimate of mountain snow water equivalent (SWE) for North America from regional climate model simulations. Climatological peak SWE in North America mountains is 1,006 km3, 2.94 times larger than previous estimates from reanalyses. By combining this mountain SWE value with the best available global product in nonmountain areas, we estimate peak North America SWE of 1,684 km3, 55% greater than previous estimates. In our simulations, the date of maximum SWE varies widely by mountain range, from early March to mid-April. Though mountains comprise 24% of the continent's land area, we estimate that they contain 60% of North American SWE. This new estimate is a suitable benchmark for continental- and global-scale water and energy budget studies.

Soil Methanotrophy Model (MeMo v1.0): a process-based model to quantify global uptake of atmospheric methane by soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murguia-Flores, Fabiola; Arndt, Sandra; Ganesan, Anita L.; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Hornibrook, Edward R. C.

2018-06-01

Soil bacteria known as methanotrophs are the sole biological sink for atmospheric methane (CH4), a potent greenhouse gas that is responsible for ˜ 20 % of the human-driven increase in radiative forcing since pre-industrial times. Soil methanotrophy is controlled by a plethora of factors, including temperature, soil texture, moisture and nitrogen content, resulting in spatially and temporally heterogeneous rates of soil methanotrophy. As a consequence, the exact magnitude of the global soil sink, as well as its temporal and spatial variability, remains poorly constrained. We developed a process-based model (Methanotrophy Model; MeMo v1.0) to simulate and quantify the uptake of atmospheric CH4 by soils at the global scale. MeMo builds on previous models by Ridgwell et al. (1999) and Curry (2007) by introducing several advances, including (1) a general analytical solution of the one-dimensional diffusion-reaction equation in porous media, (2) a refined representation of nitrogen inhibition on soil methanotrophy, (3) updated factors governing the influence of soil moisture and temperature on CH4 oxidation rates and (4) the ability to evaluate the impact of autochthonous soil CH4 sources on uptake of atmospheric CH4. We show that the improved structural and parametric representation of key drivers of soil methanotrophy in MeMo results in a better fit to observational data. A global simulation of soil methanotrophy for the period 1990-2009 using MeMo yielded an average annual sink of 33.5 ± 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1. Warm and semi-arid regions (tropical deciduous forest and open shrubland) had the highest CH4 uptake rates of 602 and 518 mg CH4 m-2 yr-1, respectively. In these regions, favourable annual soil moisture content ( ˜ 20 % saturation) and low seasonal temperature variations (variations < ˜ 6 °C) provided optimal conditions for soil methanotrophy and soil-atmosphere gas exchange. In contrast to previous model analyses, but in agreement with recent observational data, MeMo predicted low fluxes in wet tropical regions because of refinements in formulation of the influence of excess soil moisture on methanotrophy. Tundra and mixed forest had the lowest simulated CH4 uptake rates of 176 and 182 mg CH4 m-2 yr-1, respectively, due to their marked seasonality driven by temperature. Global soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 was decreased by 4 % by the effect of nitrogen inputs to the system; however, the direct addition of fertilizers attenuated the flux by 72 % in regions with high agricultural intensity (i.e. China, India and Europe) and by 4-10 % in agriculture areas receiving low rates of N input (e.g. South America). Globally, nitrogen inputs reduced soil uptake of atmospheric CH4 by 1.38 Tg yr-1, which is 2-5 times smaller than reported previously. In addition to improved characterization of the contemporary soil sink for atmospheric CH4, MeMo provides an opportunity to quantify more accurately the relative importance of soil methanotrophy in the global CH4 cycle in the past and its capacity to contribute to reduction of atmospheric CH4 levels under future global change scenarios.

A Bayesian method to quantify azimuthal anisotropy model uncertainties: application to global azimuthal anisotropy in the upper mantle and transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, K.; Beghein, C.

2018-04-01

Seismic anisotropy is a powerful tool to constrain mantle deformation, but its existence in the deep upper mantle and topmost lower mantle is still uncertain. Recent results from higher mode Rayleigh waves have, however, revealed the presence of 1 per cent azimuthal anisotropy between 300 and 800 km depth, and changes in azimuthal anisotropy across the mantle transition zone boundaries. This has important consequences for our understanding of mantle convection patterns and deformation of deep mantle material. Here, we propose a Bayesian method to model depth variations in azimuthal anisotropy and to obtain quantitative uncertainties on the fast seismic direction and anisotropy amplitude from phase velocity dispersion maps. We applied this new method to existing global fundamental and higher mode Rayleigh wave phase velocity maps to assess the likelihood of azimuthal anisotropy in the deep upper mantle and to determine whether previously detected changes in anisotropy at the transition zone boundaries are robustly constrained by those data. Our results confirm that deep upper-mantle azimuthal anisotropy is favoured and well constrained by the higher mode data employed. The fast seismic directions are in agreement with our previously published model. The data favour a model characterized, on average, by changes in azimuthal anisotropy at the top and bottom of the transition zone. However, this change in fast axes is not a global feature as there are regions of the model where the azimuthal anisotropy direction is unlikely to change across depths in the deep upper mantle. We were, however, unable to detect any clear pattern or connection with surface tectonics. Future studies will be needed to further improve the lateral resolution of this type of model at transition zone depths.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

Dynamics of a Class of HIV Infection Models with Cure of Infected Cells in Eclipse Stage.

PubMed

Maziane, Mehdi; Lotfi, El Mehdi; Hattaf, Khalid; Yousfi, Noura

2015-12-01

In this paper, we propose two HIV infection models with specific nonlinear incidence rate by including a class of infected cells in the eclipse phase. The first model is described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and generalizes a set of previously existing models and their results. The second model extends our ODE model by taking into account the diffusion of virus. Furthermore, the global stability of both models is investigated by constructing suitable Lyapunov functionals. Finally, we check our theoretical results with numerical simulations.

Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

2014-06-01

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil fuel and biomass burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of Brown Carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of two. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 W m-2 (0.08 W m-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 W m-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 W m-2, with an additional +0.11 W m-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80% / +140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 W m-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 W m-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime and the incorrect attribution of BrC absorption to BC.

Exploiting simultaneous observational constraints on mass and absorption to estimate the global direct radiative forcing of black carbon and brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, D. A.; Schwarz, J. P.; Spackman, J. R.; Perring, A. E.; Coe, H.; Liu, D.; Clarke, A. D.

2014-10-01

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) is a leading climate warming agent, yet uncertainties on the global direct radiative forcing (DRF) remain large. Here we expand a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BC to include the absorption enhancement associated with BC coating and separately treat both the aging and physical properties of fossil-fuel and biomass-burning BC. In addition we develop a global simulation of brown carbon (BrC) from both secondary (aromatic) and primary (biomass burning and biofuel) sources. The global mean lifetime of BC in this simulation (4.4 days) is substantially lower compared to the AeroCom I model means (7.3 days), and as a result, this model captures both the mass concentrations measured in near-source airborne field campaigns (ARCTAS, EUCAARI) and surface sites within 30%, and in remote regions (HIPPO) within a factor of 2. We show that the new BC optical properties together with the inclusion of BrC reduces the model bias in absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) at multiple wavelengths by more than 50% at AERONET sites worldwide. However our improved model still underestimates AAOD by a factor of 1.4 to 2.8 regionally, with the largest underestimates in regions influenced by fire. Using the RRTMG model integrated with GEOS-Chem we estimate that the all-sky top-of-atmosphere DRF of BC is +0.13 Wm-2 (0.08 Wm-2 from anthropogenic sources and 0.05 Wm-2 from biomass burning). If we scale our model to match AERONET AAOD observations we estimate the DRF of BC is +0.21 Wm-2, with an additional +0.11 Wm-2 of warming from BrC. Uncertainties in size, optical properties, observations, and emissions suggest an overall uncertainty in BC DRF of -80%/+140%. Our estimates are at the lower end of the 0.2-1.0 Wm-2 range from previous studies, and substantially less than the +0.6 Wm-2 DRF estimated in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. We suggest that the DRF of BC has previously been overestimated due to the overestimation of the BC lifetime (including the effect on the vertical profile) and the incorrect attribution of BrC absorption to BC.

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer.

PubMed

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M; Moteki, Nobuhiro; Hamilton, Douglas S; Ohata, Sho; Yoshida, Atsushi; Koike, Makoto; Scanza, Rachel A; Flanner, Mark G

2018-04-23

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30-90 °S) by 52%, with a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m -2 globally and 0.22 W m -2 over East Asia. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.

Integration of local motion is normal in amblyopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, Robert F.; Mansouri, Behzad; Dakin, Steven C.; Allen, Harriet A.

2006-05-01

We investigate the global integration of local motion direction signals in amblyopia, in a task where performance is equated between normal and amblyopic eyes at the single element level. We use an equivalent noise model to derive the parameters of internal noise and number of samples, both of which we show are normal in amblyopia for this task. This result is in apparent conflict with a previous study in amblyopes showing that global motion processing is defective in global coherence tasks [Vision Res. 43, 729 (2003)]. A similar discrepancy between the normalcy of signal integration [Vision Res. 44, 2955 (2004)] and anomalous global coherence form processing has also been reported [Vision Res. 45, 449 (2005)]. We suggest that these discrepancies for form and motion processing in amblyopia point to a selective problem in separating signal from noise in the typical global coherence task.

Global Inventory of Gas Geochemistry Data from Fossil Fuel, Microbial and Burning Sources, version 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherwood, Owen A.; Schwietzke, Stefan; Arling, Victoria A.; Etiope, Giuseppe

2017-08-01

The concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4) has more than doubled over the industrial era. To help constrain global and regional CH4 budgets, inverse (top-down) models incorporate data on the concentration and stable carbon (δ13C) and hydrogen (δ2H) isotopic ratios of atmospheric CH4. These models depend on accurate δ13C and δ2H end-member source signatures for each of the main emissions categories. Compared with meticulous measurement and calibration of isotopic CH4 in the atmosphere, there has been relatively less effort to characterize globally representative isotopic source signatures, particularly for fossil fuel sources. Most global CH4 budget models have so far relied on outdated source signature values derived from globally nonrepresentative data. To correct this deficiency, we present a comprehensive, globally representative end-member database of the δ13C and δ2H of CH4 from fossil fuel (conventional natural gas, shale gas, and coal), modern microbial (wetlands, rice paddies, ruminants, termites, and landfills and/or waste) and biomass burning sources. Gas molecular compositional data for fossil fuel categories are also included with the database. The database comprises 10 706 samples (8734 fossil fuel, 1972 non-fossil) from 190 published references. Mean (unweighted) δ13C signatures for fossil fuel CH4 are significantly lighter than values commonly used in CH4 budget models, thus highlighting potential underestimation of fossil fuel CH4 emissions in previous CH4 budget models. This living database will be updated every 2-3 years to provide the atmospheric modeling community with the most complete CH4 source signature data possible. Database digital object identifier (DOI): https://doi.org/10.15138/G3201T.

Global-scale Joint Body and Surface Wave Tomography with Vertical Transverse Isotropy for Seismic Monitoring Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmons, Nathan; Myers, Steve

2017-04-01

We continue to develop more advanced models of Earth's global seismic structure with specific focus on improving predictive capabilities for future seismic events. Our most recent version of the model combines high-quality P and S wave body wave travel times and surface-wave group and phase velocities into a joint (simultaneous) inversion process to tomographically image Earth's crust and mantle. The new model adds anisotropy (known as vertical transverse isotropy) to the model, which is necessitated by the addition of surface waves to the tomographic data set. Like previous versions of the model the new model consists of 59 surfaces and 1.6 million model nodes from the surface to the core-mantle boundary, overlaying a 1-D outer and inner core model. The model architecture is aspherical and we directly incorporate Earth's expected hydrostatic shape (ellipticity and mantle stretching). We also explicitly honor surface undulations including the Moho, several internal crustal units, and the upper mantle transition zone undulations as predicated by previous studies. The explicit Earth model design allows for accurate travel time computation using our unique 3-D ray tracing algorithms, capable of 3-D ray tracing more than 20 distinct seismic phases including crustal, regional, teleseismic, and core phases. Thus, we can now incorporate certain secondary (and sometimes exotic) phases into source location determination and other analyses. New work on model uncertainty quantification assesses the error covariance of the model, which when completed will enable calculation of path-specific estimates of uncertainty for travel times computed using our previous model (LLNL-G3D-JPS) which is available to the monitoring and broader research community and we encourage external evaluation and validation. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, B. J.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mills, R. T.; Erickson, D. J.; Blasing, T. J.

2009-12-01

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO2 by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO2 flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO2 flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO2 seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonally adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA‧ (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO2 concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO2 between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO2 seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO2, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO2 emissions and geographic position. This work further attests to the need for remotely sensed CO2 observations from space.

Modeling nitrous oxide emission from rivers: a global assessment.

PubMed

Hu, Minpeng; Chen, Dingjiang; Dahlgren, Randy A

2016-11-01

Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta-analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N 2 O flux was significantly correlated with NH 4 , NO 3 and DIN (NH 4  + NO 3 ) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N 2 O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N 2 O emission rates (EF(a): R 2  = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R 2  = 0.91 for global model and R 2  = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N 2 O emission rates of 29.6-35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 and emission factors of 0.16-0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N 2 O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N 2 O emission rates (300-2100 Gg N 2 O-N yr -1 ) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N 2 O emission estimates will be further enhanced through refining emission factor estimates, extending measurements longitudinally along entire river networks and improving estimates of global riverine nitrogen loads. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modelling Movement Energetics Using Global Positioning System Devices in Contact Team Sports: Limitations and Solutions.

PubMed

Gray, Adrian J; Shorter, Kathleen; Cummins, Cloe; Murphy, Aron; Waldron, Mark

2018-06-01

Quantifying the training and competition loads of players in contact team sports can be performed in a variety of ways, including kinematic, perceptual, heart rate or biochemical monitoring methods. Whilst these approaches provide data relevant for team sports practitioners and athletes, their application to a contact team sport setting can sometimes be challenging or illogical. Furthermore, these methods can generate large fragmented datasets, do not provide a single global measure of training load and cannot adequately quantify all key elements of performance in contact team sports. A previous attempt to address these limitations via the estimation of metabolic energy demand (global energy measurement) has been criticised for its inability to fully quantify the energetic costs of team sports, particularly during collisions. This is despite the seemingly unintentional misapplication of the model's principles to settings outside of its intended use. There are other hindrances to the application of such models, which are discussed herein, such as the data-handling procedures of Global Position System manufacturers and the unrealistic expectations of end users. Nevertheless, we propose an alternative energetic approach, based on Global Positioning System-derived data, to improve the assessment of mechanical load in contact team sports. We present a framework for the estimation of mechanical work performed during locomotor and contact events with the capacity to globally quantify the work done during training and matches.

Lattice Boltzmann methods for global linear instability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez, José Miguel; Aguilar, Alfonso; Theofilis, Vassilis

2017-12-01

Modal global linear instability analysis is performed using, for the first time ever, the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to analyze incompressible flows with two and three inhomogeneous spatial directions. Four linearization models have been implemented in order to recover the linearized Navier-Stokes equations in the incompressible limit. Two of those models employ the single relaxation time and have been proposed previously in the literature as linearization of the collision operator of the lattice Boltzmann equation. Two additional models are derived herein for the first time by linearizing the local equilibrium probability distribution function. Instability analysis results are obtained in three benchmark problems, two in closed geometries and one in open flow, namely the square and cubic lid-driven cavity flow and flow in the wake of the circular cylinder. Comparisons with results delivered by classic spectral element methods verify the accuracy of the proposed new methodologies and point potential limitations particular to the LBM approach. The known issue of appearance of numerical instabilities when the SRT model is used in direct numerical simulations employing the LBM is shown to be reflected in a spurious global eigenmode when the SRT model is used in the instability analysis. Although this mode is absent in the multiple relaxation times model, other spurious instabilities can also arise and are documented herein. Areas of potential improvements in order to make the proposed methodology competitive with established approaches for global instability analysis are discussed.

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Using atmospheric 14CO to constrain OH variability: concept and potential for future measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrenko, V. V.; Murray, L. T.; Smith, A. W.

2017-12-01

The primary source of 14C-containing carbon monoxide (14CO) in the atmosphere is via 14C production from 14N by secondary cosmic rays, and the primary sink is removal by OH. Variations in the global abundance of 14CO that are not explained by variations in 14C production are mainly driven by variations in the global abundance of OH. Monitoring OH variability via methyl chloroform is becoming increasingly difficult as methyl chloroform abundance is continuing to decline. Measurements of atmospheric 14CO have previously been successfully used to infer OH variability. However, these measurements are currently only continuing at one location (Baring Head, New Zealand), which is insufficient to infer global trends. We propose to restart global 14CO monitoring with the aim of providing another constraint on OH variability. A new analytical system for 14CO sampling and measurements is in development, which will allow to strongly reduce the required sample air volumes (previously ≥ 400 L) and simplify field logistics. A set of test measurements is planned, with sampling at the Mauna Loa Observatory. Preliminary work with a state-of-the-art chemical transport model is identifying the most promising locations for global 14CO sampling.

Global analysis of fermion mixing with exotics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nardi, Enrico; Roulet, Esteban; Tommasini, Daniele

1991-01-01

The limits are analyzed on deviation of the lepton and quark weak-couplings from their standard model values in a general class of models where the known fermions are allowed to mix with new heavy particles with exotic SU(2) x U(1) quantum number assignments (left-handed singlets or right-handed doublets). These mixings appear in many extensions of the electroweak theory such as models with mirror fermions, E(sub 6) models, etc. The results update previous analyses and improve considerably the existing bounds.

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE PAGES

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey; ...

2016-05-17

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Time-dependent MHD modeling of the global structure of the heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liewer, P. C.; Brackbill, J. U.; Karmesin, S. Roy

1995-01-01

We present results from time-dependent modeling of the global structure of the heliosphere with neutral and magnetic field effects included. The magnetic field is assumed parallel to the interstellar flow in this two-dimensional axisymmetric model; the neutrals are treated as a fluid. The effects of interstellar neutrals and the interplanetary magnetic field on the location of the termination shock are studied using the most recent estimate of the interstellar medium parameters, results will be compared to those of Baranov and Zaitsev. The effect of the solar wind - VLISM interaction on the density and velocity of interstellar neutrals within the heliosphere will also be presented and related to observations. The response of the termination shock to the solar cycle variation in the solar wind will be compared to the response found previously using an axisymmetric hydrodynamic model without neutrals.

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W. John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-01-01

Background The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Methods and Findings To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Conclusions Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks. PMID:16640458

Image-optimized Coronal Magnetic Field Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Shaela I.; Uritsky, Vadim; Davila, Joseph M.

2017-08-01

We have reported previously on a new method we are developing for using image-based information to improve global coronal magnetic field models. In that work, we presented early tests of the method, which proved its capability to improve global models based on flawed synoptic magnetograms, given excellent constraints on the field in the model volume. In this follow-up paper, we present the results of similar tests given field constraints of a nature that could realistically be obtained from quality white-light coronagraph images of the lower corona. We pay particular attention to difficulties associated with the line-of-sight projection of features outside of the assumed coronagraph image plane and the effect on the outcome of the optimization of errors in the localization of constraints. We find that substantial improvement in the model field can be achieved with these types of constraints, even when magnetic features in the images are located outside of the image plane.

Bayesian comparison of protein structures using partial Procrustes distance.

PubMed

Ejlali, Nasim; Faghihi, Mohammad Reza; Sadeghi, Mehdi

2017-09-26

An important topic in bioinformatics is the protein structure alignment. Some statistical methods have been proposed for this problem, but most of them align two protein structures based on the global geometric information without considering the effect of neighbourhood in the structures. In this paper, we provide a Bayesian model to align protein structures, by considering the effect of both local and global geometric information of protein structures. Local geometric information is incorporated to the model through the partial Procrustes distance of small substructures. These substructures are composed of β-carbon atoms from the side chains. Parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach. We evaluate the performance of our model through some simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply our model to a real dataset and assess the accuracy and convergence rate. Results show that our model is much more efficient than previous approaches.

Image-Optimized Coronal Magnetic Field Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Shaela I.; Uritsky, Vadim; Davila, Joseph M.

2017-01-01

We have reported previously on a new method we are developing for using image-based information to improve global coronal magnetic field models. In that work we presented early tests of the method which proved its capability to improve global models based on flawed synoptic magnetograms, given excellent constraints on the field in the model volume. In this follow-up paper we present the results of similar tests given field constraints of a nature that could realistically be obtained from quality white-light coronagraph images of the lower corona. We pay particular attention to difficulties associated with the line-of-sight projection of features outside of the assumed coronagraph image plane, and the effect on the outcome of the optimization of errors in localization of constraints. We find that substantial improvement in the model field can be achieved with this type of constraints, even when magnetic features in the images are located outside of the image plane.

Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

2011-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

Archeomagnetic intensity spikes: global or regional geomagnetic field features?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korte, Monika; Constable, Catherine G.

2018-03-01

Variations of the geomagnetic field prior to direct observations are inferred from archeo- and paleomagnetic experiments. Seemingly unusual variations not seen in the present day and historical field are of particular interest to constrain the full range of core dynamics. Recently, archeomagnetic intensity spikes, characterised by very high field values that appear to be associated with rapid secular variation rates, have been reported from several parts of the world. They were first noted in data from the Levant at around 900 BCE. A recent re-assessment of previous and new Levantine data, involving a rigorous quality assessment, interprets the observations as an extreme local geomagnetic high with at least two intensity spikes between the 11^{th} and 8^{th} centuries BCE. Subsequent reports of similar features from Asia, the Canary Islands and Texas raise the question of whether such features might be common occurrences, or whether they might even be part of a global magnetic field feature. Here we use spherical harmonic modelling to test two hypotheses: firstly, whether the Levantine and other potential spikes might be associated with higher dipole field intensity than shown by existing global field models around 1000 BCE, and secondly, whether the observations from different parts of the world are compatible with a westward drifting intense flux patch. Our results suggest that the spikes originate from intense flux patches growing and decaying mostly in situ, combined with stronger and more variable dipole moment than shown by previous global field models. Axial dipole variations no more than 60% higher than observed in the present field, probably within the range of normal geodynamo behaviour, seem sufficient to explain the observations.

Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, Jos; Gromov, Sergey; Pozzer, Andrea; Taraborrelli, Domenico

2016-10-01

The self-cleaning or oxidation capacity of the atmosphere is principally controlled by hydroxyl (OH) radicals in the troposphere. Hydroxyl has primary (P) and secondary (S) sources, the former mainly through the photodissociation of ozone, the latter through OH recycling in radical reaction chains. We used the recent Mainz Organics Mechanism (MOM) to advance volatile organic carbon (VOC) chemistry in the general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) and show that S is larger than previously assumed. By including emissions of a large number of primary VOC, and accounting for their complete breakdown and intermediate products, MOM is mass-conserving and calculates substantially higher OH reactivity from VOC oxidation compared to predecessor models. Whereas previously P and S were found to be of similar magnitude, the present work indicates that S may be twice as large, mostly due to OH recycling in the free troposphere. Further, we find that nighttime OH formation may be significant in the polluted subtropical boundary layer in summer. With a mean OH recycling probability of about 67 %, global OH is buffered and not sensitive to perturbations by natural or anthropogenic emission changes. Complementary primary and secondary OH formation mechanisms in pristine and polluted environments in the continental and marine troposphere, connected through long-range transport of O3, can maintain stable global OH levels.

Towards a unified Global Weather-Climate Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2016-12-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions and kilometer scale regional climate simulations within a unified global modeling system. The foundation of this flexible modeling system is the nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere (FV3). A unique aspect of FV3 is that it is "vertically Lagrangian" (Lin 2004), essentially reducing the equation sets to two dimensions, and is the single most important reason why FV3 outperforms other non-hydrostatic cores. Owning to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, the FV3 has been selected as the "engine" for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched grid, a two-way regional-global nested grid, and an optimal combination of the stretched and two-way nests capability, making kilometer-scale regional simulations within a global modeling system feasible. Our main scientific goal is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that, with the FV3, it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornado-like vortices using a global model that was originally designed for climate simulations. The development and tuning strategy between traditional weather and climate models are fundamentally different due to different metrics. We were able to adapt and use traditional "climate" metrics or standards, such as angular momentum conservation, energy conservation, and flux balance at top of the atmosphere, and gain insight into problems of traditional weather prediction model for medium-range weather prediction, and vice versa. Therefore, the unification in weather and climate models can happen not just at the algorithm or parameterization level, but also in the metric and tuning strategy used for both applications, and ultimately, with benefits to both weather and climate applications.

Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheehan, J. J.

2016-12-01

We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of performance, global output of meat and milk could increase 2.8 fold. This is much higher than that reported previously for major grain crops like corn and wheat. Our results suggest that efforts to address poor performance of pasture systems around the world could substantially improve the outlook for meeting future food demand.

Analytic Quasi-Perodic Cocycles with Singularities and the Lyapunov Exponent of Extended Harper's Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jitomirskaya, S.; Marx, C. A.

2012-11-01

We show how to extend (and with what limitations) Avila's global theory of analytic SL(2,C) cocycles to families of cocycles with singularities. This allows us to develop a strategy to determine the Lyapunov exponent for the extended Harper's model, for all values of parameters and all irrational frequencies. In particular, this includes the self-dual regime for which even heuristic results did not previously exist in physics literature. The extension of Avila's global theory is also shown to imply continuous behavior of the LE on the space of analytic {M_2({C})}-cocycles. This includes rational approximation of the frequency, which so far has not been available.

Investigations on the Aridity Paradox

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donohue, R. J.; Roderick, M. L.

2014-12-01

How global aridity might change in the immediate future is an important question. Several recent analyses have concluded that aridity will, in general, increase over land primarily because of increasing vapour pressure deficit. Taken at face value that result is difficult to understand because a warmer world is also anticipated to be a moister world. For example, at the global scale, climate model projections are for increasing rainfall and runoff. In this presentation we investigate this seeming paradox. We find that the previous analyses have not accounted for the biological impacts of elevated CO2 and when that is incorporated, the climate model projections are for a modest reduction in meteorological and hydrologic aridity and for larger reductions in biological aridity.

Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimont, Zbigniew; Kupiainen, Kaarle; Heyes, Chris; Purohit, Pallav; Cofala, Janusz; Rafaj, Peter; Borken-Kleefeld, Jens; Schöpp, Wolfgang

2017-07-01

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990-2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude-latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector, contributing about 60 % for BC and OC, 45 % for PM2. 5, and less than 40 % for PM10, where large combustion sources and industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15 % of PM2. 5 but for some sources reach nearly 50 %, i.e. for the transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to the inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission dataset has been used in several regional and global atmospheric transport and climate model simulations within the ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project and beyond, serves better parameterization of the global integrated assessment models with respect to representation of black carbon and organic carbon emissions, and built a basis for recently published global particulate number estimates.

New Sediment Data to Constrain Southern Atlantic Holocene Secular Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korte, M. C.; Frank, U.; Nowaczyk, N. R.; Frederichs, T.; Brown, M. C.

2014-12-01

The present day geomagnetic field shows a notable weak zone stretching from South America to southern Africa. This is known as the South Atlantic Anomaly caused by a growing patch of reversed magnetic flux at the core-mantle boundary. The investigation of existence and evolution of similar features over the past millennia using global spherical harmonic models is hampered by the fact that at present only very few paleomagnetic data from equatorial and many southern hemisphere regions are available to constrain models well in these regions. Here, we present the results of paleomagnetic investigations of sediment cores from four locations at low latitudes. OPD 1078 and 1079 lie off the coast of Angola, GeoB6517-2 and ODP 1076D are located in the Congo Fan and M35003-4 is situated southeast of Grenada in the Tobago Basin. In addition to the paleomagnetic work all cores were subjected to a comprehensive set of rock magnetic measurements. Detailed age models based on radiocarbon dating are available for all locations, since the sites were already subjects of different aspects of climatic studies. We include these new records and previously presented data from two Ethiopian locations in millennial scale global models of the CALSxk type. Agreement of the new data to previous models and modifications of models due to the additional data are discussed, focussing in particular on magnetic field structures resembling the present-day South Atlantic Anomaly.

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

Different Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Response to Global Change Result in Different Outcomes in the MIMICS-CN Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyker-Snowman, E.; Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, S.

2017-12-01

Microbial-explicit models of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling have improved upon simulations of C and N stocks and flows at site-to-global scales relative to traditional first-order linear models. However, the response of microbial-explicit soil models to global change factors depends upon which parameters and processes in a model are altered by those factors. We used the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization Model with coupled N cycling (MIMICS-CN) to compare modeled responses to changes in temperature and plant inputs at two previously-modeled sites (Harvard Forest and Kellogg Biological Station). We spun the model up to equilibrium, applied each perturbation, and evaluated 15 years of post-perturbation C and N pools and fluxes. To model the effect of increasing temperatures, we independently examined the impact of decreasing microbial C use efficiency (CUE), increasing the rate of microbial turnover, and increasing Michaelis-Menten kinetic rates of litter decomposition, plus several combinations of the three. For plant inputs, we ran simulations with stepwise increases in metabolic litter, structural litter, whole litter (structural and metabolic), or labile soil C. The cumulative change in soil C or N varied in both sign and magnitude across simulations. For example, increasing kinetic rates of litter decomposition resulted in net releases of both C and N from soil pools, while decreasing CUE produced short-term increases in respiration but long-term accumulation of C in litter pools and shifts in soil C:N as microbial demand for C increased and biomass declined. Given that soil N cycling constrains the response of plant productivity to global change and that soils generate a large amount of uncertainty in current earth system models, microbial-explicit models are a critical opportunity to advance the modeled representation of soils. However, microbial-explicit models must be improved by experiments to isolate the physiological and stoichiometric parameters of soil microbes that shift under global change.

For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Judt, Falko

2017-04-01

A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex problem. The comparatively slower error growth in the tropics and in the stratosphere indicates that certain weather phenomena could potentially have longer predictability than currently thought.

Marine cloud brightening – as effective without clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ahlm, Lars; Jones, Andy; Stjern, Camilla W.

Marine cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a climate engineering method for avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming. A limitation of most of the previous modelling studies on marine cloud brightening is that they have either considered individual models or only investigated the effects of a specific increase in the number of cloud droplets. Here we present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4sea-salt experiment. Injection rates of accumulation-mode sea spray aerosol particles over ocean between 30°N and 30°S are set in each model tomore » generate a global-mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of –2.0 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere. We find that the injection increases the cloud droplet number concentration in lower layers, reduces the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increases the cloud optical depth over the injection area. We also find, however, that the global-mean clear-sky ERF by the injected particles is as large as the corresponding total ERF in all three ESMs, indicating a large potential of the aerosol direct effect in regions of low cloudiness. The largest enhancement in ERF due to the presence of clouds occur as expected in the subtropical stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of the American and African continents. However, outside these regions, the ERF is in general equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions. Lastly, these findings suggest a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.« less

Marine cloud brightening – as effective without clouds

DOE PAGES

Ahlm, Lars; Jones, Andy; Stjern, Camilla W.; ...

2017-11-06

Marine cloud brightening through sea spray injection has been proposed as a climate engineering method for avoiding the most severe consequences of global warming. A limitation of most of the previous modelling studies on marine cloud brightening is that they have either considered individual models or only investigated the effects of a specific increase in the number of cloud droplets. Here we present results from coordinated simulations with three Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4sea-salt experiment. Injection rates of accumulation-mode sea spray aerosol particles over ocean between 30°N and 30°S are set in each model tomore » generate a global-mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) of –2.0 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere. We find that the injection increases the cloud droplet number concentration in lower layers, reduces the cloud-top effective droplet radius, and increases the cloud optical depth over the injection area. We also find, however, that the global-mean clear-sky ERF by the injected particles is as large as the corresponding total ERF in all three ESMs, indicating a large potential of the aerosol direct effect in regions of low cloudiness. The largest enhancement in ERF due to the presence of clouds occur as expected in the subtropical stratocumulus regions off the west coasts of the American and African continents. However, outside these regions, the ERF is in general equally large in cloudy and clear-sky conditions. Lastly, these findings suggest a more important role of the aerosol direct effect in sea spray climate engineering than previously thought.« less

Global neural pattern similarity as a common basis for categorization and recognition memory.

PubMed

Davis, Tyler; Xue, Gui; Love, Bradley C; Preston, Alison R; Poldrack, Russell A

2014-05-28

Familiarity, or memory strength, is a central construct in models of cognition. In previous categorization and long-term memory research, correlations have been found between psychological measures of memory strength and activation in the medial temporal lobes (MTLs), which suggests a common neural locus for memory strength. However, activation alone is insufficient for determining whether the same mechanisms underlie neural function across domains. Guided by mathematical models of categorization and long-term memory, we develop a theory and a method to test whether memory strength arises from the global similarity among neural representations. In human subjects, we find significant correlations between global similarity among activation patterns in the MTLs and both subsequent memory confidence in a recognition memory task and model-based measures of memory strength in a category learning task. Our work bridges formal cognitive theories and neuroscientific models by illustrating that the same global similarity computations underlie processing in multiple cognitive domains. Moreover, by establishing a link between neural similarity and psychological memory strength, our findings suggest that there may be an isomorphism between psychological and neural representational spaces that can be exploited to test cognitive theories at both the neural and behavioral levels. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/347472-13$15.00/0.

Global and Regional 3D Tomography for Improved Seismic Event Location and Uncertainty in Explosion Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downey, N.; Begnaud, M. L.; Hipp, J. R.; Ballard, S.; Young, C. S.; Encarnacao, A. V.

2017-12-01

The SALSA3D global 3D velocity model of the Earth was developed to improve the accuracy and precision of seismic travel time predictions for a wide suite of regional and teleseismic phases. Recently, the global SALSA3D model was updated to include additional body wave phases including mantle phases, core phases, reflections off the core-mantle boundary and underside reflections off the surface of the Earth. We show that this update improves travel time predictions and leads directly to significant improvements in the accuracy and precision of seismic event locations as compared to locations computed using standard 1D velocity models like ak135, or 2½D models like RSTT. A key feature of our inversions is that path-specific model uncertainty of travel time predictions are calculated using the full 3D model covariance matrix computed during tomography, which results in more realistic uncertainty ellipses that directly reflect tomographic data coverage. Application of this method can also be done at a regional scale: we present a velocity model with uncertainty obtained using data obtained from the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. These results show a reduction in travel-time residuals for re-located events compared with those obtained using previously published models.

Maternal and Infant Temperament Characteristics as Contributors to Parenting Stress in the First Year Postpartum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oddi, Kate B.; Murdock, Kyle W.; Vadnais, Sarah; Bridgett, David J.; Gartstein, Maria A.

2013-01-01

Although prominent models emphasize that maternal, child, and situational variables are associated with parenting stress, previous research has often neglected to examine associations between maternal and infant temperament characteristics and stress experienced in the parenting role. Additionally, while predictors of global parenting stress have…

Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

2016-01-01

Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates.

PubMed

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2016-12-05

Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatially heterogeneous, which may influence the success of microscopic dynamics locally. This prevents the synchronization of locally emerging oscillations, and ultimately results in a phenomenon where one type of randomness is used to mitigate the adverse effects of other types of randomness in the system.

Biodiversity in models of cyclic dominance is preserved by heterogeneity in site-specific invasion rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2016-12-01

Global, population-wide oscillations in models of cyclic dominance may result in the collapse of biodiversity due to the accidental extinction of one species in the loop. Previous research has shown that such oscillations can emerge if the interaction network has small-world properties, and more generally, because of long-range interactions among individuals or because of mobility. But although these features are all common in nature, global oscillations are rarely observed in actual biological systems. This begets the question what is the missing ingredient that would prevent local oscillations to synchronize across the population to form global oscillations. Here we show that, although heterogeneous species-specific invasion rates fail to have a noticeable impact on species coexistence, randomness in site-specific invasion rates successfully hinders the emergence of global oscillations and thus preserves biodiversity. Our model takes into account that the environment is often not uniform but rather spatially heterogeneous, which may influence the success of microscopic dynamics locally. This prevents the synchronization of locally emerging oscillations, and ultimately results in a phenomenon where one type of randomness is used to mitigate the adverse effects of other types of randomness in the system.

The Impact of Secondary School Students' Preconceptions on the Evolution of their Mental Models of the Greenhouse effect and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinfried, Sibylle; Tempelmann, Sebastian

2014-01-01

This paper provides a video-based learning process study that investigates the kinds of mental models of the atmospheric greenhouse effect 13-year-old learners have and how these mental models change with a learning environment, which is optimised in regard to instructional psychology. The objective of this explorative study was to observe and analyse the learners' learning pathways according to their previous knowledge in detail and to understand the mental model formation processes associated with them more precisely. For the analysis of the learning pathways, drawings, texts, video and interview transcripts from 12 students were studied using qualitative methods. The learning pathways pursued by the learners significantly depend on their domain-specific previous knowledge. The learners' preconceptions could be typified based on specific characteristics, whereby three preconception types could be formed. The 'isolated pieces of knowledge' type of learners, who have very little or no previous knowledge about the greenhouse effect, build new mental models that are close to the target model. 'Reduced heat output' type of learners, who have previous knowledge that indicates compliances with central ideas of the normative model, reconstruct their knowledge by reorganising and interpreting their existing knowledge structures. 'Increasing heat input' type of learners, whose previous knowledge consists of subjective worldly knowledge, which has a greater personal explanatory value than the information from the learning environment, have more difficulties changing their mental models. They have to fundamentally reconstruct their mental models.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via Modified Efficient Global Optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moeller, Timothy M.; Wilhite, Alan W.; Liles, Kaitlin A.

2014-01-01

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use the EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO method consists of first conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple new test points at each iteration. This modification facilitates parallel computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the optimizer code is not integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those identified in the previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational savings if the initial Design of Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately.

Dynamic Constraint Satisfaction with Reasonable Global Constraints

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frank, Jeremy

2003-01-01

Previously studied theoretical frameworks for dynamic constraint satisfaction problems (DCSPs) employ a small set of primitive operators to modify a problem instance. They do not address the desire to model problems using sophisticated global constraints, and do not address efficiency questions related to incremental constraint enforcement. In this paper, we extend a DCSP framework to incorporate global constraints with flexible scope. A simple approach to incremental propagation after scope modification can be inefficient under some circumstances. We characterize the cases when this inefficiency can occur, and discuss two ways to alleviate this problem: adding rejection variables to the scope of flexible constraints, and adding new features to constraints that permit increased control over incremental propagation.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Evaluation of Boreal Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in the GASS-YOTC Multi-Model Physical Processes Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, N. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.

2014-12-01

While the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal variability (BSISV) exerts profound influence on the south Asian monsoon, the capability of present day dynamical models in simulating and predicting the BSISV is still limited. The global model evaluation project on vertical structure and diabatic processes of the Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is a joint venture, coordinated by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) MJO Task Force and GEWEX Atmospheric System Study (GASS) program, for assessing the model deficiencies in simulating the ISV and for improving our understanding of the underlying processes. In this study the simulation of the northward propagating BSISV is investigated in 26 climate models with special focus on the vertical diabatic heating structure and clouds. Following parallel lines of inquiry as the MJO Task Force has done with the eastward propagating MJO, we utilize previously proposed and newly developed model performance metrics and process diagnostics and apply them to the global climate model simulations of BSISV.

Using the Maximum Entropy Principle as a Unifying Theory Characterization and Sampling of Multi-Scaling Processes in Hydrometeorology

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-20

evapotranspiration (ET) over oceans may be significantly lower than previously thought. The MEP model parameterized turbulent transfer coefficients...fluxes, ocean freshwater fluxes, regional crop yield among others. An on-going study suggests that the global annual evapotranspiration (ET) over...Bras, Jingfeng Wang. A model of evapotranspiration based on the theory of maximum entropy production, Water Resources Research, (03 2011): 0. doi

A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Raymond J.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5R(sub J). The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by C(sub max)(Delta)t/(Delta)x less than 1 where C(sub max) is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is C(sub w) and the flow speed is C(sub f), C(sub max) = C(sub w) + C(sub f). Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a new MHD model that will be able to compute solutions in the wide parameter regime of the Jovian magnetosphere.

High resolution simulations of aerosol microphysics in a global and regionally nested chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. J.; Marks, M.

2015-12-01

The aerosol indirect effect is the largest source of forcing uncertainty in current climate models. This effect arises from the influence of aerosols on the reflective properties and lifetimes of clouds, and its magnitude depends on how many particles can serve as cloud droplet formation sites. Assessing levels of this subset of particles (cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) requires knowledge of aerosol levels and their global distribution, size distributions, and composition. A key tool necessary to advance our understanding of CCN is the use of global aerosol microphysical models, which simulate the processes that control aerosol size distributions: nucleation, condensation/evaporation, and coagulation. Previous studies have found important differences in CO (Chen, D. et al., 2009) and ozone (Jang, J., 1995) modeled at different spatial resolutions, and it is reasonable to believe that short-lived, spatially-variable aerosol species will be similarly - or more - susceptible to model resolution effects. The goal of this study is to determine how CCN levels and spatial distributions change as simulations are run at higher spatial resolution - specifically, to evaluate how sensitive the model is to grid size, and how this affects comparisons against observations. Higher resolution simulations are necessary supports for model/measurement synergy. Simulations were performed using the global chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (v9-02). The years 2008 and 2009 were simulated at 4ox5o and 2ox2.5o globally and at 0.5ox0.667o over Europe and North America. Results were evaluated against surface-based particle size distribution measurements from the European Supersites for Atmospheric Aerosol Research project. The fine-resolution model simulates more spatial and temporal variability in ultrafine levels, and better resolves topography. Results suggest that the coarse model predicts systematically lower ultrafine levels than does the fine-resolution model. Significant differences are also evident with respect to model-measurement comparisons, and will be discussed.

Global estimates of evapotranspiration and gross primary production based on MODIS and global meteorology data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, W.; Liu, S.; Yu, G.; Bonnefond, J.-M.; Chen, J.; Davis, K.; Desai, A.R.; Goldstein, Allen H.; Gianelle, D.; Rossi, F.; Suyker, A.E.; Verma, S.B.

2010-01-01

The simulation of gross primary production (GPP) at various spatial and temporal scales remains a major challenge for quantifying the global carbon cycle. We developed a light use efficiency model, called EC-LUE, driven by only four variables: normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature, and the Bowen ratio of sensible to latent heat flux. The EC-LUE model may have the most potential to adequately address the spatial and temporal dynamics of GPP because its parameters (i.e., the potential light use efficiency and optimal plant growth temperature) are invariant across the various land cover types. However, the application of the previous EC-LUE model was hampered by poor prediction of Bowen ratio at the large spatial scale. In this study, we substituted the Bowen ratio with the ratio of evapotranspiration (ET) to net radiation, and revised the RS-PM (Remote Sensing-Penman Monteith) model for quantifying ET. Fifty-four eddy covariance towers, including various ecosystem types, were selected to calibrate and validate the revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models. The revised RS-PM model explained 82% and 68% of the observed variations of ET for all the calibration and validation sites, respectively. Using estimated ET as input, the EC-LUE model performed well in calibration and validation sites, explaining 75% and 61% of the observed GPP variation for calibration and validation sites respectively.Global patterns of ET and GPP at a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 0.6° longitude during the years 2000–2003 were determined using the global MERRA dataset (Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). The global estimates of ET and GPP agreed well with the other global models from the literature, with the highest ET and GPP over tropical forests and the lowest values in dry and high latitude areas. However, comparisons with observed GPP at eddy flux towers showed significant underestimation of ET and GPP due to lower net radiation of MERRA dataset. Applying a procedure to correct the systematic errors of global meteorological data would improve global estimates of GPP and ET. The revised RS-PM and EC-LUE models will provide the alternative approaches making it possible to map ET and GPP over large areas because (1) the model parameters are invariant across various land cover types and (2) all driving forces of the models may be derived from remote sensing data or existing climate observation networks.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Model Assessment of the Impact on Ozone of Subsonic and Supersonic Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie

2000-01-01

This is the final report for work performed between June 1999 through May 2000. The work represents continuation of the previous contract which encompasses five areas: (1) continued refinements and applications of the 2-D chemistry-transport model (CTM) to assess the ozone effects from aircraft operation in the stratosphere; (2) studying the mechanisms that determine the evolution of the sulfur species in the aircraft plume and how such mechanisms affect the way aircraft sulfur emissions should be introduced into global models; (3) the development of diagnostics in the AER 3-wave interactive model to assess the importance of the dynamics feedback and zonal asymmetry in model prediction of ozone response to aircraft operation; (4) the development of a chemistry parameterization scheme in support of the global modeling initiative (GMI); and (5) providing assessment results for preparation of national and international reports which include the "Aviation and the Global Atmosphere" prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "Assessment of the effects of high-speed aircraft in the stratosphere: 1998" by NASA, and the "Model and Measurements Intercomparison II" by NASA. Part of the work was reported in the final report. We participated in the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) campaign and we continue with our analyses of the data.

Assessing the Influence of Human Activities on Global Water Resources Using an Advanced Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Koirala, S.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2010-12-01

In order to examine the impact of human intervention on the global hydrological cycle, a Land Surface Model was enhanced with schemes to assess the anthropogenic disturbance on the natural water flow at the global scale. Four different schemes namely; reservoir operation, crop growth, environmental flow, and anthropogenic water withdrawal modules from a state-of-the-art global water resources assessment model called H08 were integrated into an offline version of LSM, Minimal Advance Treatment of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO). MATSIRO represents majority of the hydrological processes of water and energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere on a physical basis and is designed to be coupled with GCM. The integrated model presented here thus has the capability to simulate both natural and anthropogenic flows of water globally at a spatial resolution of 1°x1°, considering dam operation, domestic, industrial and agricultural water withdrawals and environmental flow requirements. The model can also be coupled with climate models to assess the impact of human activities on the climate system. A simple groundwater scheme was also incorporated and the model can be used to assess the change in water table due to groundwater pumping for irrigation. The model was validated by comparing simulated soil moisture, river discharge and Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) with observations. The model performs well in simulating TWSA as compared to GRACE observation in different river basins ranging from very wet to very dry. Soil moisture cannot be validated globally because of the lack of validation datasets. For Illinois region, where long term soil moisture observations are available, the model captures the seasonal variation quite well. The simulated global potential irrigation demand is about 1100km3/year, which is within the range of previously published estimates based on various water balance models and LSMs. The model has an advanced option to limit water withdrawal from river channels based on water availability and environmental flow requirements. Results showed that about three-fourth of the irrigation demand can be met from surface-water (rivers, small and medium-sized reservoirs). Therefore, one-fourth of the demand must have been supplied by groundwater. Further analysis of modeled groundwater pumping for irrigation is needed to examine the extent of groundwater withdrawal and its impact on water table fluctuations.

Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net; Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr; Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr

2015-01-15

The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using themore » developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.« less

On dynamical systems approaches and methods in f ( R ) cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alho, Artur; Carloni, Sante; Uggla, Claes, E-mail: aalho@math.ist.utl.pt, E-mail: sante.carloni@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, E-mail: claes.uggla@kau.se

We discuss dynamical systems approaches and methods applied to flat Robertson-Walker models in f ( R )-gravity. We argue that a complete description of the solution space of a model requires a global state space analysis that motivates globally covering state space adapted variables. This is shown explicitly by an illustrative example, f ( R ) = R + α R {sup 2}, α > 0, for which we introduce new regular dynamical systems on global compactly extended state spaces for the Jordan and Einstein frames. This example also allows us to illustrate several local and global dynamical systems techniquesmore » involving, e.g., blow ups of nilpotent fixed points, center manifold analysis, averaging, and use of monotone functions. As a result of applying dynamical systems methods to globally state space adapted dynamical systems formulations, we obtain pictures of the entire solution spaces in both the Jordan and the Einstein frames. This shows, e.g., that due to the domain of the conformal transformation between the Jordan and Einstein frames, not all the solutions in the Jordan frame are completely contained in the Einstein frame. We also make comparisons with previous dynamical systems approaches to f ( R ) cosmology and discuss their advantages and disadvantages.« less

A global inventory of small floating plastic debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, Erik; Wilcox, Chris; Lebreton, Laurent; Maximenko, Nikolai; Hardesty, Britta Denise; van Franeker, Jan A.; Eriksen, Marcus; Siegel, David; Galgani, Francois; Lavender Law, Kara

2015-12-01

Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Atlantic and North Pacific accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements assembled to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardize a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and coupled this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons, which is only approximately 1% of global plastic waste estimated to enter the ocean in the year 2010. These estimates are larger than previous global estimates, but vary widely because the scarcity of data in most of the world ocean, differences in model formulations, and fundamental knowledge gaps in the sources, transformations and fates of microplastics in the ocean.

Uranium isotope evidence for two episodes of deoxygenation during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarkson, Matthew O.; Stirling, Claudine H.; Jenkyns, Hugh C.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Porcelli, Don; Moy, Christopher M.; Pogge von Strandmann, Philip A. E.; Cooke, Ilsa R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2018-03-01

Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE 2), occurring ˜94 million years ago, was one of the most extreme carbon cycle and climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic Eon. It was typified by a rapid rise in atmospheric CO2, global warming, and marine anoxia, leading to the widespread devastation of marine ecosystems. However, the precise timing and extent to which oceanic anoxic conditions expanded during OAE 2 remains unresolved. We present a record of global ocean redox changes during OAE 2 using a combined geochemical and carbon cycle modeling approach. We utilize a continuous, high-resolution record of uranium isotopes in pelagic and platform carbonate sediments to quantify the global extent of seafloor anoxia during OAE 2. This dataset is then compared with a dynamic model of the coupled global carbon, phosphorus, and uranium cycles to test hypotheses for OAE 2 initiation. This unique approach highlights an intra-OAE complexity that has previously been underconstrained, characterized by two expansions of anoxia separated by an episode of globally significant reoxygenation coincident with the “Plenus Cold Event.” Each anoxic expansion event was likely driven by rapid atmospheric CO2 injections from multiphase Large Igneous Province activity.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

PubMed

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

A time-averaged regional model of the Hermean magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thébault, E.; Langlais, B.; Oliveira, J. S.; Amit, H.; Leclercq, L.

2018-03-01

This paper presents the first regional model of the magnetic field of Mercury developed with mathematical continuous functions. The model has a horizontal spatial resolution of about 830 km at the surface of the planet, and it is derived without any a priori information about the geometry of the internal and external fields or regularization. It relies on an extensive dataset of the MESSENGER's measurements selected over its entire orbital lifetime between 2011 and 2015. A first order separation between the internal and the external fields over the Northern hemisphere is achieved under the assumption that the magnetic field measurements are acquired in a source free region within the magnetospheric cavity. When downward continued to the core-mantle boundary, the model confirms some of the general structures observed in previous studies such as the dominance of zonal field, the location of the North magnetic pole, and the global absence of significant small scale structures. The transformation of the regional model into a global spherical harmonic one provides an estimate for the axial quadrupole to axial dipole ratio of about g20/g10 = 0.27 . This is much lower than previous estimates of about 0.40. We note that it is possible to obtain a similar ratio provided that more weight is put on the location of the magnetic equator and less elsewhere.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenetic Processes during SOP-3 NAMMA in the GEOS-5 Global Data Assimilation and Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, Oreste; Lau, William K.; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Brin, Eugenia

2009-01-01

This article investigates the role of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) in tropical cyclogenetic processes associated with a non-developing and a developing African easterly wave observed during the Special Observation Period (SOP-3) phase of the 2006 NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA). The two waves are chosen because both interact heavily with Saharan air. A global data assimilation and forecast system, the NASA GEOS-5, is being run to produce a set of high-quality global analyses, inclusive of all observations used operationally but with denser satellite information. In particular, following previous works by the same Authors, the quality-controlled data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) used to produce these analyses have a better coverage than the one adopted by operational centers. From these improved analyses, two sets of 31 5-day high resolution forecasts, at horizontal resolutions of both half and quarter degrees, are produced. Results show that very steep moisture gradients are associated with the SAL in forecasts and analyses even at great distance from the Sahara. In addition, a thermal dipole (warm above, cool below) is present in the non-developing case. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) show that aerosol optical thickness is higher in the non-developing case. Altogether, results suggest that radiative effect of dust may play some role in producing a thermal structure less favorable to cyclogenesis. Results also indicate that only global horizontal resolutions on the order of 20-30 kilometers can capture the large-scale transport and the fine thermal structure of the SAL, inclusive of the sharp moisture gradients, reproducing the effect of tropical cyclone suppression which has been hypothesized by previous authors from observational and regional modeling perspectives. These effects cannot be fully represented at lower resolutions. Global resolution of a quarter of a degree is a minimum critical threshold to investigate Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis from a global modeling perspective.

Global properties of physically interesting Lorentzian spacetimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawarajan, Deloshan; Visser, Matt

Under normal circumstances most members of the general relativity community focus almost exclusively on the local properties of spacetime, such as the locally Euclidean structure of the manifold and the Lorentzian signature of the metric tensor. When combined with the classical Einstein field equations this gives an extremely successful empirical model of classical gravity and classical matter — at least as long as one does not ask too many awkward questions about global issues, (such as global topology and global causal structure). We feel however that this is a tactical error — even without invoking full-fledged “quantum gravity” we know that the standard model of particle physics is also an extremely good representation of some parts of empirical reality; and we had better be able to carry over all the good features of the standard model of particle physics — at least into the realm of semi-classical quantum gravity. Doing so gives us some interesting global features that spacetime should possess: On physical grounds spacetime should be space-orientable, time-orientable, and spacetime-orientable, and it should possess a globally defined tetrad (vierbein, or in general a globally defined vielbein/n-bein). So on physical grounds spacetime should be parallelizable. This strongly suggests that the metric is not the fundamental physical quantity; a very good case can be made for the tetrad being more fundamental than the metric. Furthermore, a globally-defined “almost complex structure” is almost unavoidable. Ideas along these lines have previously been mooted, but much is buried in the pre-arXiv literature and is either forgotten or inaccessible. We shall revisit these ideas taking a perspective very much based on empirical physical observation.

Global bias reliability in dogs (Canis familiaris).

PubMed

Mongillo, Paolo; Pitteri, Elisa; Sambugaro, Pamela; Carnier, Paolo; Marinelli, Lieta

2017-03-01

Dogs enrolled in a previous study were assessed two years later for reliability of their local/global preference in a discrimination test with the same hierarchical stimuli used in the previous study (Experiment 1) and with a novel stimulus (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, dogs easily re-learned to discriminate the positive stimulus; their individual global/local choices were stable compared to the previous study; and an overall clear global bias was found. In Experiment 2, dogs were slower in acquiring the initial discrimination task; the overall global bias disappeared; and, individually, dogs tended to make inverse choices compared to the original study. Spontaneous attention toward the test stimulus resembling the global features of the probe stimulus was the main factor affecting the likeliness of a global choice of our dogs, regardless of the type of experiment. However, attention to task-irrelevant elements increased at the expense of attention to the stimuli in the test phase of Experiment 2. Overall, the results suggest that the stability of global bias in dogs depends on the characteristics of the assessment contingencies, likely including the learning requirements of the tasks. Our results also clearly indicate that attention processes have a prominent role on dogs' global bias, in agreement with previous findings in humans and other species.

Genetic diversity and classification of Oryza sativa with emphasis on Chinese rice germplasm

PubMed Central

Wang, C-H; Zheng, X-M; Xu, Q; Yuan, X-P; Huang, L; Zhou, H-F; Wei, X-H; Ge, S

2014-01-01

Despite extensive studies on cultivated rice, the genetic structure and subdivision of this crop remain unclear at both global and local scales. Using 84 nuclear simple sequence repeat markers, we genotyped a panel of 153 global rice cultivars covering all previously recognized groups and 826 cultivars representing the diversity of Chinese rice germplasm. On the basis of model-based grouping, neighbour-joining tree and principal coordinate analysis, we confirmed the widely accepted five major groups of rice cultivars (indica, aus, aromatic, temperate japonica and tropical japonica), and demonstrated that rayada rice was unique in genealogy and should be treated as a new (the sixth) major group of rice germplasm. With reference to the global classification of rice cultivars, we identified three major groups (indica, temperate japonica and tropical japonica) in Chinese rice germplasm and showed that Chinese temperate japonica contained higher diversity than that of global samples, whereas Chinese indica and tropical japonica maintained slightly lower diversity than that present in the global samples. Particularly, we observed that all seasonal, drought-tolerant and endosperm types occurred within each of three major groups of Chinese cultivars, which does not support previous claims that seasonal differentiation exists in Indica and drought-tolerant differentiation is present in Japonica. It is most likely that differentiation of cultivar types arose multiple times stemming from artificial selection for adaptation to local environments. PMID:24326293

Curricular Innovation for Sustainability: The Piedmont/Ponderosa Model of Faculty Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barlett, Peggy F.; Chase, Geoffrey W.

2012-01-01

Curricular innovation is at the center of the challenges many colleges and universities face as they seek to help students address more successfully than previous generations the complex, multi-faceted, systemic challenges of global climate change, population growth, loss of biodiversity, environmental justice, toxic wastes, and food insecurity.…

DOE Scientists Contribute to 2007 Nobel Peace Prize Research about Climate

Science.gov Websites

and resources were devoted to modeling the interactive effects of consequences, that is to say effects are more immediate and profound than previously anticipated, and old questions (are humans the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, DOE Technical Report, May 2005 Climate Effects of Global Land Cover

Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Stek, P. C.; Su, H.; Jiang, J. H.; Livesey, N. J.; Santee, M. L.

2014-12-01

Over the past century, global average surface temperature has warmed by about 0.16°C/decade, largely due to anthropogenic increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases. However, the trend in global surface temperatures has been nearly flat since 2000, raising a question regarding the exploration of the drivers of climate change. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Previous studies suggested that the sudden decrease of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) around 2000 may have contributed to the stall of global warming. Since 2004, the SWV observed by Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura satellite has shown a slow recovery. The role of recent SWV variations in global warming has not been quantified. We employ a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model, the NCAR CESM, to address this issue. It is found that the CESM underestimates the stratospheric water vapor by about 1 ppmv due to limited representations of the stratospheric dynamic and chemical processes important for water vapor variabilities. By nudging the modeled SWV to the MLS observation, we find that increasing SWV by 1 ppmv produces a robust surface warming about 0.2°C in global-mean when the model reaches equilibrium. Conversely, the sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 would cause a surface cooling about -0.08°C in global-mean. On the other hand, imposing the observed linear trend of SWV based on the 10-year observation of MLS in the CESM yields a rather slow surface warming, about 0.04°C/decade. Our model experiments suggest that SWV contributes positively to the global surface temperature variation, although it may not be the dominant factor that drives the recent global warming hiatus. Additional sensitivity experiments show that the impact of SWV on surface climate is mostly governed by the SWV amount at 100 hPa in the tropics. Furthermore, the atmospheric model simulations driven by observed sea surface temperature (SST) show that the inter-annual variation of SWV follows that of SST, suggesting a close coupling between surface temperature and SWV.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea;

Crash forecasting in the Korean stock market based on the log-periodic structure and pattern recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, Bonggyun; Song, Jae Wook; Chang, Woojin

2018-02-01

The aim of this research is to propose an alarm index to forecast the crash of the Korean financial market in extension to the idea of Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model, which uses the log-periodic functions and pattern recognition algorithm. We discover that the crashes of the Korean financial market can be classified into domestic and global crises where each category requires different window length of fitted datasets. Therefore, we add the window length as a new parameter to enhance the performance of alarm index. Distinguishing the domestic and global crises separately, our alarm index demonstrates more robust forecasting than previous model by showing the error diagram and the results of trading performance.

The Impact of Desert Dust Aerosol Radiative Forcing on Global and West African Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Dezfuli, A. K.

2015-12-01

Desert dust aerosols exert a radiative forcing on the atmosphere, influencing atmospheric temperature structure and modifying radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and surface. As dust aerosols perturb radiative fluxes, the atmosphere responds by altering both energy and moisture dynamics, with potentially significant impacts on regional and global precipitation. Global Climate Model (GCM) experiments designed to characterize these processes have yielded a wide range of results, owing to both the complex nature of the system and diverse differences across models. Most model results show a general decrease in global precipitation, but regional results vary. Here, we compare simulations from GFDL's CM2Mc GCM with multiple other model experiments from the literature in order to investigate mechanisms of radiative impact and reasons for GCM differences on a global and regional scale. We focus on West Africa, a region of high interannual rainfall variability that is a source of dust and that neighbors major Sahara Desert dust sources. As such, changes in West African climate due to radiative forcing of desert dust aerosol have serious implications for desertification feedbacks. Our CM2Mc results show net cooling of the planet at TOA and surface, net warming of the atmosphere, and significant increases in precipitation over West Africa during the summer rainy season. These results differ from some previous GCM studies, prompting comparative analysis of desert dust parameters across models. This presentation will offer quantitative analysis of differences in dust aerosol parameters, aerosol optical properties, and overall particle burden across GCMs, and will characterize the contribution of model differences to the uncertainty of forcing and climate response affecting West Africa.

Global fund financing to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries under the new funding model 2014-2017: an analysis of national allocations and regional grants.

PubMed

Zelman, Brittany; Melgar, Melissa; Larson, Erika; Phillips, Allison; Shretta, Rima

2016-02-25

The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria (GFATM) has been the largest financial supporter of malaria since 2002. In 2011, the GFATM transitioned to a new funding model (NFM), which prioritizes grants to high burden, lower income countries. This shift raises concerns that some low endemic countries, dependent on GFATM financing to achieve their malaria elimination goals, would receive less funding under the NFM. This study aims to understand the projected increase or decrease in national and regional funding from the GFATM's NFM to the 34 malaria-eliminating countries. Average annual disbursements under the old funding model were compared to average annual national allocations for all eligible 34 malaria-eliminating countries for the period of 2014-2017. Regional grant funding to countries that are due to receive additional support was then included in the comparison and analysed. Estimated funding ranges for the countries under the NFM were calculated using the proposed national allocation plus the possible adjustments and additional funding. Finally, the minimum and maximum funding estimates were compared to average annual disbursements under the old funding model. A cumulative 31 % decrease in national financing from the GFATM is expected for the countries included in this analysis. Regional grants augment funding for almost half of the eliminating countries, and increase the cumulative percent change in GTFAM funding to 32 %, though proposed activities may not be funded directly through national malaria programmes. However, if countries receive the maximum possible funding, 46 % of the countries included in this analysis would receive less than they received under the previous funding model. Many malaria-eliminating countries have projected national declines in funding from the GFATM under the NFM. While regional grants enhance funding for eliminating countries, they may not be able to fill country-level funding gaps for local commodities and implementation. If the GFATM is able to nuance its allocation methodology to mitigate drastic funding declines for malaria investments in low transmission countries, the GFATM can ensure previous investments are not lost. By aligning with WHO's Global Technical Strategy for Malaria and investing in both high- and low-endemic countries, the Global Fund can tip the scale on a global health threat and contribute toward the goal of eventual malaria eradication.

Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G.; Greve, Peter; Pitman, Andy J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-09-01

This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.;

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer

DOE PAGES

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Moteki, Nobuhiro; ...

2018-04-23

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, withmore » a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m –2 globally and 0.22 W m –2 over East Asia. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.« less

Anthropogenic combustion iron as a complex climate forcer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsui, Hitoshi; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Moteki, Nobuhiro

Atmospheric iron affects the global carbon cycle by modulating ocean biogeochemistry through the deposition of soluble iron to the ocean. Iron emitted by anthropogenic (fossil fuel) combustion is a source of soluble iron that is currently considered less important than other soluble iron sources, such as mineral dust and biomass burning. Here we show that the atmospheric burden of anthropogenic combustion iron is 8 times greater than previous estimates by incorporating recent measurements of anthropogenic magnetite into a global aerosol model. This new estimation increases the total deposition flux of soluble iron to southern oceans (30–90 °S) by 52%, withmore » a larger contribution of anthropogenic combustion iron than dust and biomass burning sources. The direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic magnetite is estimated to be 0.021 W m –2 globally and 0.22 W m –2 over East Asia. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that anthropogenic combustion iron is a larger and more complex climate forcer than previously thought, and therefore plays a key role in the Earth system.« less

Spectral-element global waveform tomography: A second-generation upper-mantle model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, S. W.; Lekic, V.; Romanowicz, B. A.

2012-12-01

The SEMum model of Lekic and Romanowicz (2011a) was the first global upper-mantle VS model obtained using whole-waveform inversion with spectral element (SEM: Komatitsch and Vilotte, 1998) forward modeling of time domain three component waveforms. SEMum exhibits stronger amplitudes of heterogeneity in the upper 200km of the mantle compared to previous global models - particularly with respect to low-velocity anomalies. To make SEM-based waveform inversion tractable at global scales, SEMum was developed using: (1) a version of SEM coupled to 1D mode computation in the earth's core (C-SEM, Capdeville et al., 2003); (2) asymptotic normal-mode sensitivity kernels, incorporating multiple forward scattering and finite-frequency effects in the great-circle plane (NACT: Li and Romanowicz, 1995); and (3) a smooth anisotropic crustal layer of uniform 60km thickness, designed to match global surface-wave dispersion while reducing the cost of time integration in the SEM. The use of asymptotic kernels reduced the number of SEM computations considerably (≥ 3x) relative to purely numerical approaches (e.g. Tarantola, 1984), while remaining sufficiently accurate at the periods of interest (down to 60s). However, while the choice of a 60km crustal-layer thickness is justifiable in the continents, it can complicate interpretation of shallow oceanic upper-mantle structure. We here present an update to the SEMum model, designed primarily to address these concerns. The resulting model, SEMum2, was derived using a crustal layer that again fits global surface-wave dispersion, but with a more geologically consistent laterally varying thickness: approximately honoring Crust2.0 (Bassin, et al., 2000) Moho depth in the continents, while saturating at 30km in the oceans. We demonstrate that this approach does not bias our upper mantle model, which is constrained not only by fundamental mode surface waves, but also by overtone waveforms. We have also improved our data-selection and assimilation scheme, more readily allowing for additional and higher-quality data to be incorporated into our inversion as the model improves. Further, we have been able to refine the parameterization of the isotropic component of our model, previously limited by our ability to solve the large dense linear system that governs model updates (Tarantola and Valette, 1982). The construction of SEMum2 involved 3 additional inversion iterations away from SEMum. Overall, the combined effect of these improvements confirms and validates the general structure of the original SEMum. Model amplitudes remain an impressive feature in SEMum2, wherein peak-to-peak variation in VS can exceed 15% in close lateral juxtaposition. Further, many intriguing structures present in SEMum are now imaged with improved resolution in the updated model. In particular, the geographic extents of the anomalous oceanic cluster identified by Lekic and Romanowicz (2011b) are consistent with our findings and now allow us to further identify alternating bands of lower and higher velocities in the 200-300km depth range beneath the Pacific basin, with a characteristic spacing of ˜2000km normal to absolute plate motion. Possible dynamic interpretation of these and other features in the ocean basins is explored in a companion presentation (Romanowicz et al., this meeting).

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

The concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating in each grid cell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product [long-term average total cloud amount (TCA)], cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our results support previous findings that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is still not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP like another model output. Lastly, contrasting cloud simulation performance against each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter, yields no clear conclusions.

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

DOE PAGES

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.; ...

2016-07-15

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high,more » central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.« less

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Smith, Steven J.

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high,more » central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.« less

Net Primary Production of Terrestrial Ecosystems from 2000 to 2009

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher; Klooster, Steven; Genovese, Vanessa

2012-01-01

The CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford) ecosystem model has been used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2009, with global data inputs from NASA's Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation cover mapping. Net primary production (NPP) flux for atmospheric carbon dioxide has varied slightly from year-to-year, but was predicted to have increased over short multi-year periods in the regions of the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, South Asia, Central Africa, and the western Amazon since the year 2000. These CASA results for global NPP were found to be in contrast to other recently published modeling trends for terrestrial NPP with high sensitivity to regional drying patterns. Nonetheless, periodic declines in regional NPP were predicted by CASA for the southern and western Untied States, the southern Amazon, and southern and eastern Africa. NPP in tropical forest zones was examined in greater detail to discover lower annual production values than previously reported in many global models across the tropical rainforest zones, likely due to the enhanced detection of lower production ecosystems replacing primary rainforest.

A Global Analysis of Light and Charge Yields in Liquid Xenon

DOE PAGES

Lenardo, Brian; Kazkaz, Kareem; Manalaysay, Aaron; ...

2015-11-04

Here, we present an updated model of light and charge yields from nuclear recoils in liquid xenon with a simultaneously constrained parameter set. A global analysis is performed using measurements of electron and photon yields compiled from all available historical data, as well as measurements of the ratio of the two. These data sweep over energies from keV and external applied electric fields from V/cm. The model is constrained by constructing global cost functions and using a simulated annealing algorithm and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to optimize and find confidence intervals on all free parameters in the model.more » This analysis contrasts with previous work in that we do not unnecessarily exclude datasets nor impose artificially conservative assumptions, do not use spline functions, and reduce the number of parameters used in NEST v 0.98. Here, we report our results and the calculated best-fit charge and light yields. These quantities are crucial to understanding the response of liquid xenon detectors in the energy regime important for rare event searches such as the direct detection of dark matter particles.« less

A surface spherical harmonic expansion of gravity anomalies on the ellipsoid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Claessens, S. J.; Hirt, C.

2015-10-01

A surface spherical harmonic expansion of gravity anomalies with respect to a geodetic reference ellipsoid can be used to model the global gravity field and reveal its spectral properties. In this paper, a direct and rigorous transformation between solid spherical harmonic coefficients of the Earth's disturbing potential and surface spherical harmonic coefficients of gravity anomalies in ellipsoidal approximation with respect to a reference ellipsoid is derived. This transformation cannot rigorously be achieved by the Hotine-Jekeli transformation between spherical and ellipsoidal harmonic coefficients. The method derived here is used to create a surface spherical harmonic model of gravity anomalies with respect to the GRS80 ellipsoid from the EGM2008 global gravity model. Internal validation of the model shows a global RMS precision of 1 nGal. This is significantly more precise than previous solutions based on spherical approximation or approximations to order or , which are shown to be insufficient for the generation of surface spherical harmonic coefficients with respect to a geodetic reference ellipsoid. Numerical results of two applications of the new method (the computation of ellipsoidal corrections to gravimetric geoid computation, and area means of gravity anomalies in ellipsoidal approximation) are provided.

Global Modeling of Phosphine (PH3) Spectra: 13 to 2.8 μm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Linda R.; Nikitin, A.; Champion, J.; Kleiner, I.; Butler, R. A. H.

2008-09-01

In order to support remote sensing of Saturn and Jupiter, the infrared spectrum of PH3 was studied using high resolution (R>360000) laboratory spectra obtained with Fourier transform spectrometers. The line positions and intensities involving up to 21 sub-vibrational states were analyzed simultaneously using theoretical models developed in France and extended in Russia. The polyads considered were the Dyad (13 - 7.3 μm), Pentad (5.9 - 3.8 μm) and Octad (3.7 - 3.1 μm). The improved quantum mechanical models were implemented using an effective Hamiltonian in the form of irreducible tensors. The global modeling permitted more extensive quantum assignments to be made for transitions arising from both from the ground state and the two lowest fundamentals. The standard deviations of the global fit represent significant improvement with respect to previous studies of phosphine spectroscopy at these wavelengths. These results will be presented. Part of the research described in this paper was performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with The National Aeronautics and Space Administration. I.K. also thanks the Programme National de Planétologie for funding part of this research.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

PubMed Central

Curtis, Janelle M.R.

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options. PMID:27547529

Global-scale assessment of groundwater depletion and related groundwater abstractions: Combining hydrological modeling with information from well observations and GRACE satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Döll, Petra; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Schuh, Carina; Portmann, Felix T.; Eicker, Annette

2014-07-01

Groundwater depletion (GWD) compromises crop production in major global agricultural areas and has negative ecological consequences. To derive GWD at the grid cell, country, and global levels, we applied a new version of the global hydrological model WaterGAP that simulates not only net groundwater abstractions and groundwater recharge from soils but also groundwater recharge from surface water bodies in dry regions. A large number of independent estimates of GWD as well as total water storage (TWS) trends determined from GRACE satellite data by three analysis centers were compared to model results. GWD and TWS trends are simulated best assuming that farmers in GWD areas irrigate at 70% of optimal water requirement. India, United States, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and China had the highest GWD rates in the first decade of the 21st century. On the Arabian Peninsula, in Libya, Egypt, Mali, Mozambique, and Mongolia, at least 30% of the abstracted groundwater was taken from nonrenewable groundwater during this time period. The rate of global GWD has likely more than doubled since the period 1960-2000. Estimated GWD of 113 km3/yr during 2000-2009, corresponding to a sea level rise of 0.31 mm/yr, is much smaller than most previous estimates. About 15% of the globally abstracted groundwater was taken from nonrenewable groundwater during this period. To monitor recent temporal dynamics of GWD and related water abstractions, GRACE data are best evaluated with a hydrological model that, like WaterGAP, simulates the impact of abstractions on water storage, but the low spatial resolution of GRACE remains a challenge.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; Kinne, S.; Myhre, G.; Schulz, M.; Stier, P.; Fischer, J.; Doppler, L.; Highwood, E.; Ryder, C.; Harris, B.; Huttunen, J.; Ma, Y.; Pinker, R. T.; Mayer, B.; Neubauer, D.; Hitzenberger, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Quaas, J.; Rose, Fred G.; Kato, S.; Rumbold, S. T.; Vardavas, I.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Matsoukas, C.; Yu, H.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Lu, P.

2012-12-01

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly -10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at higher and lower sun elevation, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as sun elevation increases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Intercomparison of shortwave radiative transfer schemes in global aerosol modeling: results from the AeroCom Radiative Transfer Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randles, C. A.; Kinne, S.; Myhre, G.; Schulz, M.; Stier, P.; Fischer, J.; Doppler, L.; Highwood, E.; Ryder, C.; Harris, B.; Huttunen, J.; Ma, Y.; Pinker, R. T.; Mayer, B.; Neubauer, D.; Hitzenberger, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Lee, D.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Quaas, J.; Rose, F. G.; Kato, S.; Rumbold, S. T.; Vardavas, I.; Hatzianastassiou, N.; Matsoukas, C.; Yu, H.; Zhang, F.; Zhang, H.; Lu, P.

2013-03-01

In this study we examine the performance of 31 global model radiative transfer schemes in cloud-free conditions with prescribed gaseous absorbers and no aerosols (Rayleigh atmosphere), with prescribed scattering-only aerosols, and with more absorbing aerosols. Results are compared to benchmark results from high-resolution, multi-angular line-by-line radiation models. For purely scattering aerosols, model bias relative to the line-by-line models in the top-of-the atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing ranges from roughly -10 to 20%, with over- and underestimates of radiative cooling at lower and higher solar zenith angle, respectively. Inter-model diversity (relative standard deviation) increases from ~10 to 15% as solar zenith angle decreases. Inter-model diversity in atmospheric and surface forcing decreases with increased aerosol absorption, indicating that the treatment of multiple-scattering is more variable than aerosol absorption in the models considered. Aerosol radiative forcing results from multi-stream models are generally in better agreement with the line-by-line results than the simpler two-stream schemes. Considering radiative fluxes, model performance is generally the same or slightly better than results from previous radiation scheme intercomparisons. However, the inter-model diversity in aerosol radiative forcing remains large, primarily as a result of the treatment of multiple-scattering. Results indicate that global models that estimate aerosol radiative forcing with two-stream radiation schemes may be subject to persistent biases introduced by these schemes, particularly for regional aerosol forcing.

Explicit Simulation of Networks of Outlet Glaciers to Constrain Greenland's Sea Level Contribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ultee, E.; Bassis, J. N.

2017-12-01

Ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet drains to the ocean through hundreds of outlet glaciers, many of which are too small to be accurately resolved in continental-scale ice sheet models. Moreover, despite the fact that dynamic changes in Greenland outlet glaciers are currently responsible for about half of the ice sheet's contribution to global sea level, all but the largest are often excluded from major sea level assessments. We have previously developed and validated a simple model that simulates advance and retreat of networks of marine-terminating glaciers based on the perfect plastic approximation. Here we apply this model to a selection of forcing scenarios, representing both climate persistence and extreme scenarios, to constrain changes in calving flux from the most significant Greenland outlet glaciers. Our model can be implemented in standalone mode or as the calving module in a more sophisticated large-scale model, providing constraints on Greenland's future contribution to global sea level rise under a range of scenarios.

A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

2014-01-01

The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, make possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented. Specifically shown here are the inner-plasmasphere RIMS measurements, radial fits to densities and temperatures for H(+), He(+), He(++), O(+), and O(+) and the error associated with these initial simple fits. Also shown are more subtle dependencies on the f10.7 P-value (see Richards et al. [1994]).

Image-optimized Coronal Magnetic Field Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Shaela I.; Uritsky, Vadim; Davila, Joseph M., E-mail: shaela.i.jones-mecholsky@nasa.gov, E-mail: shaela.i.jonesmecholsky@nasa.gov

We have reported previously on a new method we are developing for using image-based information to improve global coronal magnetic field models. In that work, we presented early tests of the method, which proved its capability to improve global models based on flawed synoptic magnetograms, given excellent constraints on the field in the model volume. In this follow-up paper, we present the results of similar tests given field constraints of a nature that could realistically be obtained from quality white-light coronagraph images of the lower corona. We pay particular attention to difficulties associated with the line-of-sight projection of features outsidemore » of the assumed coronagraph image plane and the effect on the outcome of the optimization of errors in the localization of constraints. We find that substantial improvement in the model field can be achieved with these types of constraints, even when magnetic features in the images are located outside of the image plane.« less

A regional test of global models for flow, rheology, and seismic anisotropy at the base of the mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Heather A.; Long, Maureen D.

2015-08-01

The study of flow patterns and seismic anisotropy in the lowermost mantle is fraught with uncertainties, given the limitations in our understanding of the physical properties of the lowermost mantle and the relationships between deformation and anisotropy. Here we use a set of SKS, SKKS, and ScS splitting measurements that sample the eastern edge of the African Large Low Shear Velocity Province to test predictions of seismic anisotropy derived from previously published 3D global mantle flow models and anisotropy modeling (Walker et al., 2011). The observations can be fit by a model that invokes flow directed to the southwest with a component of downwelling in our study region, and slip that occurs along the (0 1 0) plane of post-perovskite. Most importantly, we demonstrate the ability of a regional shear wave splitting data set to test the robustness of models for flow and deformation in the lowermost mantle.

Atmospheric electric field and current configurations in the vicinity of mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tzur, I.; Roble, R. G.; Adams, J. C.

1985-01-01

A number of investigations have been conducted regarding the electrical distortion produced by the earth's orography. Hays and Roble (1979) utilized their global model of atmospheric electricity to study the effect of large-scale orographic features on the currents and fields of the global circuit. The present paper is concerned with an extension of the previous work, taking into account an application of model calculations to orographic features with different configurations and an examination of the electric mapping of these features to ionospheric heights. A two-dimensional quasi-static numerical model of atmospheric electricity is employed. The model contains a detailed electrical conductivity profile. The model region extends from the surface to 100 km and includes the equalization layer located above approximately 70 km. The obtained results show that the electric field and current configurations above mountains depend upon the curvature of the mountain slopes, on the width of the mountain, and on the columnar resistance above the mountain (or mountain height).

Impact of climate change on mean groundwater residence time in several Mediterranean Spanish aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, David; Marín-Lechado, Carlos; Martos-Rosillo, Sergio; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Ruíz-Constan, Ana

2017-04-01

The mean residence time in an aquifer, also known as natural turnover time or renewable period, can be obtained as the relation (R / St) between its storage capacity (St) and its recharge (R). It is an excellent indicator of the aquifer response capacity to its exploitation. Aquifers in which R is close to St values are extremely vulnerable to exploitation, even when it is less than the average recharge. This is especially relevant in Mediterranean climate areas, where long and intensive drought periods appear and will be exacerbated in future scenarios of global change. The natural turnover time depends on the recharge and the Global Change can produce important changes on it in the future. In this research we propose a method for a detailed estimation of natural turnover time by combining detailed 3D geological modelling of the case studies, estimated fields of specific yield for the aquifers (based on the analysis of multiple field sample), and rainfall-recharge models in several aquifer with different ratios of natural turnover time. These detailed 3D geological models have been defined by integrating information coming from seismic profiles, boreholes, magnetotelluric, electromagnetic and electrical sounding, digital elevation models, previous geological maps and new structural dates. They also allow us to deduce the reserve curve as a function of the elevation. On the other hand, different ensemble and downscaling techniques will be used to define potential future global climate change scenarios for the test-regions based on the data coming from simulations with different Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). These precipitation and temperature scenarios will be employed to feed the previously calibrated rainfall-recharge models in order to estimated future recharge and turnover time values. The methodology applied in this work could be a tool of special interest to identify at regional level which aquifers are most vulnerable to exploitation considering hydrogeological and climate change aspects. This research has been supported by the CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R (MINECO) Project.

The effect of anthropogenic emissions corrections on the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M; Erickson III, David J; Blasing, T J

A previous study (Erickson et al. 2008) approximated the monthly global emission estimates of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} by applying a 2-harmonic Fourier expansion with coefficients as a function of latitude to annual CO{sub 2} flux estimates derived from United States data (Blasing et al. 2005) that were extrapolated globally. These monthly anthropogenic CO{sub 2} flux estimates were used to model atmospheric concentrations using the NASA GEOS-4 data assimilation system. Local variability in the amplitude of the simulated CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were found to be on the order of 2-6 ppmv. Here we used the same Fourier expansion to seasonallymore » adjust the global annual fossil fuel CO{sub 2} emissions from the SRES A2 scenario. For a total of four simulations, both the annual and seasonalized fluxes were advected in two configurations of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) used in the Carbon-Land Model Intercomparison Project (C-LAMP). One configuration used the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM) coupled with the CASA (carbon only) biogeochemistry model and the other used CLM coupled with the CN (coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles) biogeochemistry model. All four simulations were forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations from the Hadley Centre and a prescribed transient atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration for the radiation and land forcing over the 20th century. The model results exhibit differences in the seasonal cycle of CO{sub 2} between the seasonally corrected and uncorrected simulations. Moreover, because of differing energy and water feedbacks between the atmosphere model and the two land biogeochemistry models, features of the CO{sub 2} seasonal cycle were different between these two model configurations. This study reinforces previous findings that suggest that regional near-surface atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations depend strongly on the natural sources and sinks of CO{sub 2}, but also on the strength of local anthropogenic CO{sub 2} emissions and geographic position. This work further attests to the need for remotely sensed CO{sub 2} observations from space.« less

Multi-scale mantle structure underneath the Americas from a new tomographic model of seismic shear velocity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porritt, R. W.; Becker, T. W.; Auer, L.; Boschi, L.

2017-12-01

We present a whole-mantle, variable resolution, shear-wave tomography model based on newly available and existing seismological datasets including regional body-wave delay times and multi-mode Rayleigh and Love wave phase delays. Our body wave dataset includes 160,000 S wave delays used in the DNA13 regional tomographic model focused on the western and central US, 86,000 S and SKS delays measured on stations in western South America (Porritt et al., in prep), and 3,900,000 S+ phases measured by correlation between data observed at stations in the IRIS global networks (IU, II) and stations in the continuous US, against synthetic data generated with IRIS Syngine. The surface wave dataset includes fundamental mode and overtone Rayleigh wave data from Schaeffer and Levedev (2014), ambient noise derived Rayleigh wave and Love wave measurements from Ekstrom (2013), newly computed fundamental mode ambient noise Rayleigh wave phase delays for the continuous US up to July 2017, and other, previously published, measurements. These datasets, along with a data-adaptive parameterization utilized for the SAVANI model (Auer et al., 2014), should allow significantly finer-scale imaging than previous global models, rivaling that of regional-scale approaches, under the USArray footprint in the continuous US, while seamlessly integrating into a global model. We parameterize the model for both vertically (vSV) and horizontally (vSH) polarized shear velocities by accounting for the different sensitivities of the various phases and wave types. The resulting, radially anisotropic model should allow for a range of new geodynamic analysis, including estimates of mantle flow induced topography or seismic anisotropy, without generating artifacts due to edge effects, or requiring assumptions about the structure of the region outside the well resolved model space. Our model shows a number of features, including indications of the effects of edge-driven convection in the Cordillera and along the eastern margin and larger-scale convection due to the subduction of the Farallon slab and along the edge of the Laurentia cratonic margin.

Cyclo-octafluorobutane (PFC-318, c-C4F8) in the global atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhle, J.; Vollmer, M. K.; Ivy, D. J.; Fraser, P.; Arnold, T.; Harth, C. M.; Salameh, P.; O'Doherty, S.; Young, D.; Steele, P.; Krummel, P. B.; Leist, M.; Rhee, T. S.; Schmidbauer, N.; Lunder, C.; Kim, J.; Kim, K.; Reimann, S.; Simmonds, P.; Prinn, R. G.; Weiss, R. F.

2011-12-01

The perfluorocarbon (PFC) cyclo-octafluorobutane (PFC-318, c-C4F8) is a very long-lived (up to 3,200 years) and potent greenhouse gas (100-year global warming potential up to 10,300) with a wide range of industrial uses. We present an update of our PFC-318 archived air and in situ measurements from remote and urban AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) sites and affiliated stations in both hemispheres. Most importantly, we have significantly improved our Southern Hemisphere (SH) data density by measuring the Cape Grim Air Archive (1970s-2010). Combined with our previously presented measurements of archived Northern Hemisphere (NH) flasks (1973-2009), we provide thirty year spanning records for both hemispheres. We have also further extended our in situ records by continuing our measurements at all remote stations, with the longest hemispheric records starting in November 2007 at Jungfraujoch (NH) and in June 2010 at Cape Grim (SH). We compare our data with those of Oram (1999) and Oram et al. (2011), who focus on SH data alone, and with other previous data sets. From our measurements, we derive emission estimates using a chemical transport model and inverse method, and compare our results to previous measurement based emission estimates (top-down) and to the EDGAR emission database (bottom-up). As stated previously (Mühle et al., 2010), we find emissions of ~1 Gg/yr in recent years while EDGAR estimates only 0.02 Gg/yr for 2005, similar to what Oram et al. (2011) find. We conclude that PFC-318 is the third most important PFC in terms of abundance and CO2-equivalent emissions. We continue to observe mostly baseline concentrations at remote AGAGE stations and urban sites in the USA, Europe, and Australia, in contrast to frequent pollution episodes measured at sites in East Asia, indicating significant regional emissions in East Asia, as found by Saito et al. (2010). EDGAR, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research, release version 4.1. http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu, last accessed 2011. Mühle et al., Cyclo-octafluorobutane (PFC-318) in the global atmosphere, Abstract A51D-0143, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, 13-17 Dec., 2010. Oram, Trends of long-lived anthropogenic halocarbons in the Southern Hemisphere and model calculation of global emissions, Ph.D. thesis, University of East Anglia, Norwich, U.K., 1999. Oram et al., Long-term tropospheric trend of octafluorocyclobutane (c-C4F8 or PFC-318), Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 7, 19089-19111, 10.5194/acpd-11-19089-2011, 2011. Saito et al., Large Emissions of Perfluorocarbons in East Asia Deduced from Continuous Atmospheric Measurements, Environ. Sci. Technol., 44(11), 4089-4095, doi:10.1021/es1001488, 2010.

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, Gerald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Ahammad, Helal

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs makes direct use of weather inputs. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes of key variables such as prices, production, and trade. These divergent outcomes arise from differences in model inputs and model specification. The goal of this paper is to review climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. Bymore » providing common productivity drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes are reduced. All models show higher prices in 2050 because of negative productivity shocks from climate change. The magnitude of the price increases, and the adaptation responses, differ significantly across the various models. Substantial differences exist in the structural parameters affecting demand, area, and yield, and should be a topic for future research.« less

Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Emmons, L. K.; Mak, J. E.

2007-12-01

Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year- simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers that contain the source information, jointly applying the isotope and the concentration information is expected to provide more precise optimization results in CO budget estimation. Our accumulated long-term CO isotope measurement data contribute to having more confidence of the inversions as well. Besides the benefit of adding isotope data on the inverse modeling, a trait of each isotope of CO (oxygen and carbon isotope) contains another advantageous use in the top-down estimation of the CO budget. δ18O and δ13C has a distinctive isotopic signature on a specific source; combustion sources such as a fossil fuel use show clearly different values from other natural sources in the δ18O signatures and the methane source can be easily separated by using δ13C information. Therefore, inversions of the two major sources of CO respond with different sensitivity for the different isotopes. To maximize the strengths of using isotope data in the inverse modeling analysis, various coupling schemes combining [CO], δ18O and δ13C have been investigated to enhance the credibility of the CO budget optimization.

Joint Application of Concentrations and Isotopic Signatures to Investigate the Global Atmospheric Carbon Monoxide Budget: Inverse Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, K.; Mak, J. E.; Emmons, L. K.

2008-12-01

Carbon monoxide is not only an important component for determining the atmospheric oxidizing capacity but also a key trace gas in the atmospheric chemistry of the Earth's background environment. The global CO cycle and its change are closely related to both the change of CO mixing ratio and the change of source strength. Previously, to estimate the global CO budget, most top-down estimation techniques have been applied the concentrations of CO solely. Since CO from certain sources has a unique isotopic signature, its isotopes provide additional information to constrain its sources. Thus, coupling the concentration and isotope fraction information enables to tightly constrain CO flux by its sources and allows better estimations on the global CO budget. MOZART4 (Model for Ozone And Related chemical Tracers), a 3-D global chemical transport model developed at NCAR, MPI for meteorology and NOAA/GFDL and is used to simulate the global CO concentration and its isotopic signature. Also, a tracer version of MOZART4 which tagged for C16O and C18O from each region and each source was developed to see their contributions to the atmosphere efficiently. Based on the nine-year-simulation results we analyze the influences of each source of CO to the isotopic signature and the concentration. Especially, the evaluations are focused on the oxygen isotope of CO (δ18O), which has not been extensively studied yet. To validate the model performance, CO concentrations and isotopic signatures measured from MPI, NIWA and our lab are compared to the modeled results. The MOZART4 reproduced observational data fairly well; especially in mid to high latitude northern hemisphere. Bayesian inversion techniques have been used to estimate the global CO budget with combining observed and modeled CO concentration. However, previous studies show significant differences in their estimations on CO source strengths. Because, in addition to the CO mixing ratio, isotopic signatures are independent tracers that contain the source information, jointly applying the isotope and the concentration information is expected to provide more precise optimization results in CO budget estimation. Our accumulated long-term CO isotope measurement data contribute to having more confidence of the inversions as well. Besides the benefit of adding isotope data on the inverse modeling, a trait of each isotope of CO (oxygen and carbon isotope) contains another advantageous use in the top-down estimation of the CO budget. δ18O and δ13C has a distinctive isotopic signature on a specific source; combustion sources such as a fossil fuel use show clearly different values from other natural sources in the δ18O signatures and the methane source can be easily separated by using δ13C information. Therefore, inversions of the two major sources of CO respond with different sensitivity for the different isotopes. To maximize the strengths of using isotope data in the inverse modeling analysis, various coupling schemes combining [CO], δ18O and δ13C have been investigated to enhance the credibility of the CO budget optimization.

Aerosol physical properties from satellite horizon inversion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gray, C. R.; Malchow, H. L.; Merritt, D. C.; Var, R. E.; Whitney, C. K.

1973-01-01

The feasibility is investigated of determining the physical properties of aerosols globally in the altitude region of 10 to 100 km from a satellite horizon scanning experiment. The investigation utilizes a horizon inversion technique previously developed and extended. Aerosol physical properties such as number density, size distribution, and the real and imaginary components of the index of refraction are demonstrated to be invertible in the aerosol size ranges (0.01-0.1 microns), (0.1-1.0 microns), (1.0-10 microns). Extensions of previously developed radiative transfer models and recursive inversion algorithms are displayed.

Conjunction of anti-parallel and component reconnection at the dayside MP: Cluster and Double Star coordinated observation on 6 April 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Pu, Z. Y.; Fu, S. Y.; Wang, X. G.; Xiao, C. J.; Dunlop, M. W.; Wei, Y.; Bogdanova, Y. V.; Zong, Q. G.; Xie, L.

2011-05-01

Previous theoretical and simulation studies have suggested that the anti-parallel and component reconnection can occur simultaneously on the dayside magnetopause. Certain observations have also been reported to support global conjunct pattern of magnetic reconnection. Here, we show direct evidence for the conjunction of anti-parallel and component MR using coordinated observations of Double Star TC-1 and Cluster under the same IMF condition on 6 April, 2004. The global MR X-line configuration constructed is in good agreement with the “S-shape” model.

Will marine productivity wane?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laufkötter, Charlotte; Gruber, Nicolas

2018-03-01

If marine algae are impaired severely by global climate change, the resulting reduction in marine primary production would strongly affect marine life and the ocean's biological pump that sequesters substantial amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide in the ocean's interior. Most studies, including the latest generation of Earth system models, project only moderate global decreases in biological production until 2100 (1, 2), suggesting that these concerns are unwarranted. But on page 1139 of this issue, Moore et al. (3) show that this conclusion might be shortsighted and that there may be much larger long-term changes in ocean productivity than previously appreciated.

Modeling spanwise nonuniformity in the cross-sectional analysis of composite beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Jimmy Cheng-Chung

Spanwise nonuniformity effects are modeled in the cross-sectional analysis of beam theory. This modeling adheres to an established numerical framework on cross-sectional analysis of uniform beams with arbitrary cross-sections. This framework is based on two concepts: decomposition of the rotation tensor and the variational-asymptotic method. Allowance of arbitrary materials and geometries in the cross-section is from discretization of the warping field by finite elements. By this approach, dimensional reduction from three-dimensional elasticity is performed rigorously and the sectional strain energy is derived to be asymptotically-correct. Elastic stiffness matrices are derived for inputs into the global beam analysis. Recovery relations for the displacement, stress, and strain fields are also derived with care to be consistent with the energy. Spanwise nonuniformity effects appear in the form of pointwise and sectionwise derivatives, which are approximated by finite differences. The formulation also accounts for the effects of spanwise variations in initial twist and/or curvature. A linearly tapered isotropic strip is analyzed to demonstrate spanwise nonuniformity effects on the cross-sectional analysis. The analysis is performed analytically by the variational-asymptotic method. Results from beam theory are validated against solutions from plane stress elasticity. These results demonstrate that spanwise nonuniformity effects become significant as the rate at which the cross-sections vary increases. The modeling of transverse shear modes of deformation is accomplished by transforming the strain energy into generalized Timoshenko form. Approximations in this transformation procedure from previous works, when applied to uniform beams, are identified. The approximations are not used in the present work so as to retain more accuracy. Comparison of present results with those previously published shows that these approximations sometimes change the results measurably and thus are inappropriate. Static and dynamic results, from the global beam analysis, are calculated to show the differences between using stiffness constants from previous works and the present work. As a form of validation of the transformation procedure, calculations from the global beam analysis of initially twisted isotropic beams from using curvilinear coordinate axes featuring twist are shown to be equivalent to calculations using Cartesian coordinates.

Regional TEC model under quiet geomagnetic conditions and low-to-moderate solar activity based on CODE GIMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Jiandi; Jiang, Weiping; Wang, Zhengtao; Zhao, Zhenzhen; Nie, Linjuan

2017-08-01

Global empirical total electron content (TEC) models based on TEC maps effectively describe the average behavior of the ionosphere. However, the accuracy of these global models for a certain region may not be ideal. Due to the number and distribution of the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations, the accuracy of TEC maps is geographically different. The modeling database derived from the global TEC maps with different accuracy is likely one of the main reasons that limits the accuracy of the new models. Moreover, many anomalies in the ionosphere are geographic or geomagnetic dependent, and as such the accuracy of global models can deteriorate if these anomalies are not fully incorporated into the modeling approach. For regional models built in small areas, these influences on modeling are immensely weakened. Thus, the regional TEC models may better reflect the temporal and spatial variations of TEC. In our previous work (Feng et al., 2016), a regional TEC model TECM-NEC is proposed for northeast China. However, this model is only directed against the typical region of Mid-latitude Summer Nighttime Anomaly (MSNA) occurrence, which is meaningless in other regions without MSNA. Following the technique of TECM-NEC model, this study proposes another regional empirical TEC model for other regions in mid-latitudes. Taking a small area BeiJing-TianJin-Tangshan (JJT) region (37.5°-42.5° N, 115°-120° E) in China as an example, a regional empirical TEC model (TECM-JJT) is proposed using the TEC grid data from January 1, 1999 to June 30, 2015 provided by the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) under quiet geomagnetic conditions. The TECM-JJT model fits the input CODE TEC data with a bias of 0.11TECU and a root mean square error of 3.26TECU. Result shows that the regional model TECM-JJT is consistent with CODE TEC data and GPS-TEC data.

A Cross-Cultural Three-Step Process Model for Assessing Motivational Interviewing Treatment Fidelity in Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koken, Juline A.; Naar-King, Sylvie; Umasa, Sanya; Parsons, Jeffrey T.; Saengcharnchai, Pichai; Phanuphak, Praphan; Rongkavilit, Chokechai

2012-01-01

The provision of culturally relevant yet evidence-based interventions has become crucial to global HIV prevention and treatment efforts. In Thailand, where treatment for HIV has become widely available, medication adherence and risk behaviors remain an issue for Thai youth living with HIV. Previous research on motivational interviewing (MI) has…

New Directions for Academic Libraries in Research Staffing: A Case Study at National University of Ireland Galway

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, John

2017-01-01

New research needs, global developments and local shifts in emphasis are demanding a broader range of interactions by librarians with researchers and are challenging previous staffing structures. Research has a higher institutional profile and academic libraries have responded by creating new roles and staffing models, with stronger linkage across…

MMAB Sea Ice Analysis Page

Science.gov Websites

. Consequently we produce two sorts of field. One is suitable for use by models, the global field. And the other color bar gif of the Alaska Region map Previous Alaska Region Maps NCEP MMAB Interactive Sea Ice Image Generation Animation Alaska Region Sea of Okhotsk and Sea of Japan - current figure concentration color bar

Improved contour detection model with spatial summation properties based on nonclassical receptive field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Chuan; Xu, Guili; Cao, Yijun; Liang, Chenghua; Li, Ya

2016-07-01

The responses of cortical neurons to a stimulus in a classical receptive field (CRF) can be modulated by stimulating the non-CRF (nCRF) of neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1). In the very early stages (at around 40 ms), a neuron in V1 exhibits strong responses to a small set of stimuli. Later, however (after 100 ms), the neurons in V1 become sensitive to the scene's global organization. As per these visual cortical mechanisms, a contour detection model based on the spatial summation properties is proposed. Unlike in previous studies, the responses of the nCRF to the higher visual cortex that results in the inhibition of the neuronal responses in the primary visual cortex by the feedback pathway are considered. In this model, the individual neurons in V1 receive global information from the higher visual cortex to participate in the inhibition process. Computationally, global Gabor energy features are involved, leading to the more coherent physiological characteristics of the nCRF. We conducted an experiment where we compared our model with those proposed by other researchers. Our model explains the role of the mutual inhibition of neurons in V1, together with an approach for object recognition in machine vision.

Projecting the effects of climate change on Calanus finmarchicus distribution within the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf.

PubMed

Grieve, Brian D; Hare, Jon A; Saba, Vincent S

2017-07-24

Calanus finmarchicus is vital to pelagic ecosystems in the North Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies suggest the species is vulnerable to the effects of global warming, particularly on the Northeast U.S. Shelf, which is in the southern portion of its range. In this study, we evaluate an ensemble of six different downscaled climate models and a high-resolution global climate model, and create a generalized additive model (GAM) to examine how future changes in temperature and salinity could affect the distribution and density of C. finmarchicus. By 2081-2100, we project average C. finmarchicus density will decrease by as much as 50% under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These decreases are particularly pronounced in the spring and summer in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank. When compared to a high-resolution global climate model, the ensemble showed a more uniform change throughout the Northeast U.S. Shelf, while the high-resolution model showed larger decreases in the Northeast Channel, Shelf Break, and Central Gulf of Maine. C. finmarchicus is an important link between primary production and higher trophic levels, and the decrease projected here could be detrimental to the North Atlantic Right Whale and a host of important fishery species.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2017-09-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

Projected sea level rise, gyre circulation and water mass formation in the western North Pacific: CMIP5 inter-model analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terada, Mio; Minobe, Shoshiro

2018-06-01

Future changes in the dynamic sea level (DSL), which is defined as sea-level deviation from the global mean sea level, is investigated over the North Pacific, by analyzing data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The analysis provides more comprehensive descriptions of DSL responses to the global warming in this region than available from previous studies, by using surface and subsurface data until the year 2300 under middle and high greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. The DSL changes in the North Pacific are characterized by a DSL rise in the western North Pacific around the Kuroshio Extension (KE), as also reported by previous studies. Subsurface density analysis indicates that DSL rise around the KE is associated with decrease in density of subtropical mode water (STMW) and with northward KE migration, the former (latter) of which is relatively strong between 2000 and 2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (between 2100 and 2300 for RCP8.5). The STMW density decrease is related to large heat uptake to the south and southeast of Japan, while the northward KE migration is associated with the poleward shift of the wind stress field. These features are commonly found in multi-model ensemble means and the relations among representative quantities produced by different climate models.

An alternative ionospheric correction model for global navigation satellite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoque, M. M.; Jakowski, N.

2015-04-01

The ionosphere is recognized as a major error source for single-frequency operations of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). To enhance single-frequency operations the global positioning system (GPS) uses an ionospheric correction algorithm (ICA) driven by 8 coefficients broadcasted in the navigation message every 24 h. Similarly, the global navigation satellite system Galileo uses the electron density NeQuick model for ionospheric correction. The Galileo satellite vehicles (SVs) transmit 3 ionospheric correction coefficients as driver parameters of the NeQuick model. In the present work, we propose an alternative ionospheric correction algorithm called Neustrelitz TEC broadcast model NTCM-BC that is also applicable for global satellite navigation systems. Like the GPS ICA or Galileo NeQuick, the NTCM-BC can be optimized on a daily basis by utilizing GNSS data obtained at the previous day at monitor stations. To drive the NTCM-BC, 9 ionospheric correction coefficients need to be uploaded to the SVs for broadcasting in the navigation message. Our investigation using GPS data of about 200 worldwide ground stations shows that the 24-h-ahead prediction performance of the NTCM-BC is better than the GPS ICA and comparable to the Galileo NeQuick model. We have found that the 95 percentiles of the prediction error are about 16.1, 16.1 and 13.4 TECU for the GPS ICA, Galileo NeQuick and NTCM-BC, respectively, during a selected quiet ionospheric period, whereas the corresponding numbers are found about 40.5, 28.2 and 26.5 TECU during a selected geomagnetic perturbed period. However, in terms of complexity the NTCM-BC is easier to handle than the Galileo NeQuick and in this respect comparable to the GPS ICA.

An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

2018-03-01

Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

Improving the behavioral realism of global integrated assessment models: An application to consumers’ vehicle choices

DOE PAGES

McCollum, David L.; Wilson, Charlie; Pettifor, Hazel; ...

2016-05-03

A large body of transport sector-focused research recognizes the complexity of human behavior in relation to mobility. Yet, global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which are widely used to evaluate the costs, potentials, and consequences of different greenhouse gas emission trajectories over the medium-to-long term, typically represent behavior and the end use of energy as a simple rational choice between available alternatives, even though abundant empirical evidence shows that real-world decision making is more complex and less routinely rational. This paper demonstrates the value of incorporating certain features of consumer behavior in IAMs, focusing on light-duty vehicle (LDV) purchase decisions. Anmore » innovative model formulation is developed to represent heterogeneous consumer groups with varying preferences for vehicle novelty, range, refueling/recharging availability, and variety. The formulation is then implemented in the transport module of MESSAGE-Transport, a global IAM, although it also has the generic flexibility to be applied in energy-economy models with varying set-ups. Comparison of conventional and behaviorally-realistic model runs with respect to vehicle purchase decisions shows that consumer preferences may slow down the transition to alternative fuel (low-carbon) vehicles. Consequently, stronger price-based incentives and/or non-price based measures may be needed to transform the global fleet of passenger vehicles, at least in the initial market phases of novel alternatives. Otherwise, the mitigation burden borne by other transport sub-sectors and other energy sectors could be higher than previously estimated. Moreover, capturing behavioral features of energy consumers in global IAMs increases their usefulness to policy makers by allowing a more realistic assessment of a more diverse suite of policies.« less

Explanation of temporal clustering of tsunami sources using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.

2014-01-01

Temporal clustering of tsunami sources is examined in terms of a branching process model. It previously was observed that there are more short interevent times between consecutive tsunami sources than expected from a stationary Poisson process. The epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) branching process model is fitted to tsunami catalog events, using the earthquake magnitude of the causative event from the Centennial and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalogs and tsunami sizes above a completeness level as a mark to indicate that a tsunami was generated. The ETAS parameters are estimated using the maximum‐likelihood method. The interevent distribution associated with the ETAS model provides a better fit to the data than the Poisson model or other temporal clustering models. When tsunamigenic conditions (magnitude threshold, submarine location, dip‐slip mechanism) are applied to the Global CMT catalog, ETAS parameters are obtained that are consistent with those estimated from the tsunami catalog. In particular, the dip‐slip condition appears to result in a near zero magnitude effect for triggered tsunami sources. The overall consistency between results from the tsunami catalog and that from the earthquake catalog under tsunamigenic conditions indicates that ETAS models based on seismicity can provide the structure for understanding patterns of tsunami source occurrence. The fractional rate of triggered tsunami sources on a global basis is approximately 14%.

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ent, Ruud; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Hessels, Tim; Bastiaanssen, Wim; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. For root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

Muiti-Sensor Historical Climatology of Satellite-Derived Global Land Surface Moisture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Owe, Manfred; deJeu, Richard; Holmes, Thomas

2007-01-01

A historical climatology of continuous satellite derived global land surface soil moisture is being developed. The data set consists of surface soil moisture retrievals from observations of both historical and currently active satellite microwave sensors, including Nimbus-7 SMMR, DMSP SSM/I, TRMM TMI, and AQUA AMSR-E. The data sets span the period from November 1978 through the end of 2006. The soil moisture retrievals are made with the Land Parameter Retrieval Model, a physically-based model which was developed jointly by researchers from the above institutions. These data are significant in that they are the longest continuous data record of observational surface soil moisture at a global scale. Furthermore, while previous reports have intimated that higher frequency sensors such as on SSM/I are unable to provide meaningful information on soil moisture, our results indicate that these sensors do provide highly useful soil moisture data over significant parts of the globe, and especially in critical areas located within the Earth's many arid and semi-arid regions.

Global spectral irradiance variability and material discrimination at Boulder, Colorado.

PubMed

Pan, Zhihong; Healey, Glenn; Slater, David

2003-03-01

We analyze 7,258 global spectral irradiance functions over 0.4-2.2 microm that were acquired over a wide range of conditions at Boulder, Colorado, during the summer of 1997. We show that low-dimensional linear models can be used to capture the variability in these spectra over both the visible and the 0.4-2.2 microm spectral ranges. Using a linear model, we compare the Boulder data with the previous study of Judd et al. [J. Opt. Soc. Am. 54, 1031 (1964)] over the visible wavelengths. We also examine the agreement of the Boulder data with a spectral database generated by using the MODTRAN 4.0 radiative transfer code. We use a database of 223 minerals to consider the effect of the spectral variability in the global spectral irradiance functions on hyperspectral material identification. We show that the 223 minerals can be discriminated accurately over the variability in the Boulder data with subspace projection techniques.

Estimating the Cross-Shelf Export of Riverine Materials: Part 2. Estimates of Global Freshwater and Nutrient Export

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izett, Jonathan G.; Fennel, Katja

2018-02-01

Rivers deliver large amounts of fresh water, nutrients, and other terrestrially derived materials to the coastal ocean. Where inputs accumulate on the shelf, harmful effects such as hypoxia and eutrophication can result. In contrast, where export to the open ocean is efficient riverine inputs contribute to global biogeochemical budgets. Assessing the fate of riverine inputs is difficult on a global scale. Global ocean models are generally too coarse to resolve the relatively small scale features of river plumes. High-resolution regional models have been developed for individual river plume systems, but it is impractical to apply this approach globally to all rivers. Recently, generalized parameterizations have been proposed to estimate the export of riverine fresh water to the open ocean (Izett & Fennel, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667; Sharples et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005483). Here the relationships of Izett and Fennel, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667 are used to derive global estimates of open-ocean export of fresh water and dissolved inorganic silicate, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved organic and inorganic phosphorus and nitrogen. We estimate that only 15-53% of riverine fresh water reaches the open ocean directly in river plumes; nutrient export is even less efficient because of processing on continental shelves. Due to geographic differences in riverine nutrient delivery, dissolved silicate is the most efficiently exported to the open ocean (7-56.7%), while dissolved inorganic nitrogen is the least efficiently exported (2.8-44.3%). These results are consistent with previous estimates and provide a simple way to parameterize export to the open ocean in global models.

Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

2015-12-01

Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

Analysis on Patterns of Globally Coupled Phase Oscillators with Attractive and Repulsive Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Peng-Fei; Ruan, Xiao-Dong; Xu, Zhong-Bin; Fu, Xin

2015-11-01

The Hong-Strogatz (HS) model of globally coupled phase oscillators with attractive and repulsive interactions reflects the fact that each individual (oscillator) has its own attitude (attractive or repulsive) to the same environment (mean field). Previous studies on HS model focused mainly on the stable states on Ott-Antonsen (OA) manifold. In this paper, the eigenvalues of the Jacobi matrix of each fixed point in HS model are explicitly derived, with the aim to understand the local dynamics around each fixed point. Phase transitions are described according to relative population and coupling strength. Besides, the dynamics off OA manifold is studied. Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2015CB057301, the Applied Research Project of Public Welfare Technology of Zhejiang Province under Grant No. 201SC31109 and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under Grant No. 2014M560483

New Martian climate constraints from radar reflectivity within the north polar layered deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lalich, D. E.; Holt, J. W.

2017-01-01

The north polar layered deposits (NPLD) of Mars represent a global climate record reaching back millions of years, potentially recorded in visible layers and radar reflectors. However, little is known of the specific link between those layers, reflectors, and the global climate. To test the hypothesis that reflectors are caused by thick and indurated layers known as "marker beds," the reflectivity of three reflectors was measured, mapped, and compared to a reflectivity model. The measured reflectivities match the model and show a strong sensitivity to layer thickness, implying that radar reflectivity may be used as a proxy for short-term accumulation patterns and that regional climate plays a strong role in layer thickness variations. Comparisons to an orbitally forced NPLD accumulation model show a strong correlation with predicted marker bed formation, but dust content is higher than expected, implying a stronger role for dust in Mars polar climate than previously thought.

Mediator Effect of TPM between TQM and Business Performance in Malaysia Automotive Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, M. F.; Zakuan, N.; Rasi, Raja Zuraidah R. M.; Hisyamudin, M. N. N.

2015-05-01

Total Quality Management (TQM) is vital management tool in ensuring a company can success in the continuously growing competition in the global market. In order to survive in the global market with intense competition amongst regions and enterprises, the adoption of tools and techniques are essential in improving business performance. However, only few previous studies have examined the mediators and moderators between TQM and business performance. This present research proposed a TQM performance model with mediator effect of TPM with structural equation modelling, which is a more comprehensive model for developing countries, specifically for Malaysia. A questionnaire was prepared and sent to 1500 companies from automotive industry and the related vendors in Malaysia, giving a 21.3 per cent rate. The result concludes that TPM is partial mediation between and TQM and Business Performance with indirect effect (IE) is 0.25 which can be categorised as high mediator effect.

Slack channels expressed in sensory neurons control neuropathic pain in mice.

PubMed

Lu, Ruirui; Bausch, Anne E; Kallenborn-Gerhardt, Wiebke; Stoetzer, Carsten; Debruin, Natasja; Ruth, Peter; Geisslinger, Gerd; Leffler, Andreas; Lukowski, Robert; Schmidtko, Achim

2015-01-21

Slack (Slo2.2) is a sodium-activated potassium channel that regulates neuronal firing activities and patterns. Previous studies identified Slack in sensory neurons, but its contribution to acute and chronic pain in vivo remains elusive. Here we generated global and sensory neuron-specific Slack mutant mice and analyzed their behavior in various animal models of pain. Global ablation of Slack led to increased hypersensitivity in models of neuropathic pain, whereas the behavior in models of inflammatory and acute nociceptive pain was normal. Neuropathic pain behaviors were also exaggerated after ablation of Slack selectively in sensory neurons. Notably, the Slack opener loxapine ameliorated persisting neuropathic pain behaviors. In conclusion, Slack selectively controls the sensory input in neuropathic pain states, suggesting that modulating its activity might represent a novel strategy for management of neuropathic pain. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351125-11$15.00/0.

The role of the global magnetic field and thermal conduction on the structure of the accretion disks of all models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahinezhad, M.; Khesali, A. R.

2018-05-01

In this paper, the effects of global magnetic field and thermal conduction on the vertical structure of the accretion disks has been investigated. In this study, four types disks were examined: Gas pressure dominated the standard disk, while radiation pressure dominated the standard disk, ADAF disk, slim disk. Moreover, the general shape of the magnetic field, including toroidal and poloidal components, is considered. The magnetohydrodynamic equations were solved in spherical coordinates using self-similar assumptions in the radial direction. Following previous authors, the polar velocity vθ is non-zero and Trφ was considered as a dominant component of the stress tensor. The results show that the disk becomes thicker compared to the non-magnetic fields. It has also been shown that the presence of the thermal conduction in the ADAF model makes the disk thicker; the disk is expanded in the standard model.

Contribution of soil respiration to the global carbon equation.

PubMed

Xu, Ming; Shang, Hua

2016-09-20

Soil respiration (Rs) is the second largest carbon flux next to GPP between the terrestrial ecosystem (the largest organic carbon pool) and the atmosphere at a global scale. Given their critical role in the global carbon cycle, Rs measurement and modeling issues have been well reviewed in previous studies. In this paper, we briefly review advances in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition processes and the factors affecting Rs. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of Rs measurements available in the literature and found that most of the measurements were conducted in North America, Europe, and East Asia, with major gaps in Africa, East Europe, North Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia, especially in dry ecosystems. We discuss the potential problems of measuring Rs on slope soils and propose using obliquely-cut soil collars to solve the existing problems. We synthesize previous estimates of global Rs flux and find that the estimates ranged from 50 PgC/yr to 98 PgC/yr and the error associated with each estimation was also high (4 PgC/yr to 33.2 PgC/yr). Using a newly integrated database of Rs measurements and the MODIS vegetation map, we estimate that the global annual Rs flux is 94.3 PgC/yr with an estimation error of 17.9 PgC/yr at a 95% confidence level. The uneven distribution of Rs measurements limits our ability to improve the accuracy of estimation. Based on the global estimation of Rs flux, we found that Rs is highly correlated with GPP and NPP at the biome level, highlighting the role of Rs in global carbon budgets. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

The potential of land management to decrease global warming from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, A.; Hausfather, Z.; Jones, A. D.; Silver, W. L.

2016-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that negative emissions (i.e. sequestration) is critical to slow climate change (IPCC, 2013; Gasser et al, 2015). Agricultural (crop and grazing) lands have the potential to act as a significant carbon sink. These ecosystems cover a significant proportion of the global land surface, and are largely degraded with regard to soil carbon due to previous management practices (Bai et al, 2008). However, few studies have examined the required scale of land management interventions that would be required to make a significant contribution to a portfolio of efforts aimed at limiting anthropogenic influences on global mean temperature. To address this, we modelled the quantitative effect of a range of soil carbon sequestration rates on global temperature to 2100. Results showed that by assuming a baseline emissions scenario outlined in RCP 2.6, the sequestration of an additional 0.7 Pg C per year through improved agricultural land management practices would produce a reduction of 0.1 degrees C from predicted global temperatures by the year 2100. We also compiled previous estimates of global carbon sequestration potential of agricultural soils to compare with our theoretical prediction to determine whether carbon sequestration through existing land management practices has potential to significantly reduce global temperatures. Assuming long-term soil carbon uptake, the combined potential of agricultural land management-based mitigation approaches exceeded 0.25 degrees C warming reduction by the year 2100. However, results were highly sensitive to potential carbon saturation, defined as the maximum threshold for carbon storage in soil. Our results suggest that current land management technologies and available land area exist and could make a measureable impact on warming reduction. Results also highlighted potential carbon saturation as a key gap in knowledge.

A variable resolution nonhydrostatic global atmospheric semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pouliot, George Antoine

2000-10-01

The objective of this project is to develop a variable-resolution finite difference adiabatic global nonhydrostatic semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) model based on the fully compressible nonhydrostatic atmospheric equations. To achieve this goal, a three-dimensional variable resolution dynamical core was developed and tested. The main characteristics of the dynamical core can be summarized as follows: Spherical coordinates were used in a global domain. A hydrostatic/nonhydrostatic switch was incorporated into the dynamical equations to use the fully compressible atmospheric equations. A generalized horizontal variable resolution grid was developed and incorporated into the model. For a variable resolution grid, in contrast to a uniform resolution grid, the order of accuracy of finite difference approximations is formally lost but remains close to the order of accuracy associated with the uniform resolution grid provided the grid stretching is not too significant. The SISL numerical scheme was implemented for the fully compressible set of equations. In addition, the generalized minimum residual (GMRES) method with restart and preconditioner was used to solve the three-dimensional elliptic equation derived from the discretized system of equations. The three-dimensional momentum equation was integrated in vector-form to incorporate the metric terms in the calculations of the trajectories. Using global re-analysis data for a specific test case, the model was compared to similar SISL models previously developed. Reasonable agreement between the model and the other independently developed models was obtained. The Held-Suarez test for dynamical cores was used for a long integration and the model was successfully integrated for up to 1200 days. Idealized topography was used to test the variable resolution component of the model. Nonhydrostatic effects were simulated at grid spacings of 400 meters with idealized topography and uniform flow. Using a high-resolution topographic data set and the variable resolution grid, sets of experiments with increasing resolution were performed over specific regions of interest. Using realistic initial conditions derived from re-analysis fields, nonhydrostatic effects were significant for grid spacings on the order of 0.1 degrees with orographic forcing. If the model code was adapted for use in a message passing interface (MPI) on a parallel supercomputer today, it was estimated that a global grid spacing of 0.1 degrees would be achievable for a global model. In this case, nonhydrostatic effects would be significant for most areas. A variable resolution grid in a global model provides a unified and flexible approach to many climate and numerical weather prediction problems. The ability to configure the model from very fine to very coarse resolutions allows for the simulation of atmospheric phenomena at different scales using the same code. We have developed a dynamical core illustrating the feasibility of using a variable resolution in a global model.

Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, Michael J.; Toon, Owen B.; Lee-Taylor, Julia; Robock, Alan

2014-04-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

Modelling the global distribution and risk of small floating plastic debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, E.; Wilcox, C.; Lebreton, L.; Maximenko, N. A.; Sherman, P.; Hardesty, B. D.; van Franeker, J. A.; Eriksen, M.; Siegel, D.; Galgani, F.; Lavender Law, K. L.

2016-02-01

Microplastic debris floating at the ocean surface can harm marine life. Understanding the severity of this harm requires knowledge of plastic abundance and distributions. Dozens of expeditions measuring microplastics have been carried out since the 1970s, but they have primarily focused on the North Pacific and North Atlantic accumulation zones, with much sparser coverage elsewhere. Here, we use the largest dataset of microplastic measurements collated to date to assess the confidence we can have in global estimates of microplastic abundance and mass. We use a rigorous statistical framework to standardize a global dataset of plastic marine debris measured using surface-trawling plankton nets and coupled this with three different ocean circulation models to spatially interpolate the observations. Our estimates show that the accumulated number of microplastic particles in 2014 ranges from 15 to 51 trillion particles, weighing between 93 and 236 thousand metric tons, which is only approximately 1% of global plastic waste available to enter the ocean in the year 2010. These estimates are larger than previous global estimates, but vary widely because the scarcity of data in most of the world ocean, differences in model formulations, and fundamental knowledge gaps in the sources, transformations and fates of microplastics in the ocean. We then use this global distribution of small floating plastic debris to (i) map out where in the ocean the risk to marine life (seabirds, plankton growth) is greatest and to (ii) show that mitigation of the plastic problem can most aptly be done near coastlines, particularly in Asia, rather than in the centres of the gyres.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Developing Land Surface Type Map with Biome Classification Scheme Using Suomi NPP/JPSS VIIRS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; Huang, Chengquan; Zhan, Xiwu; Jin, Huiran

2016-08-01

Accurate representation of actual terrestrial surface types at regional to global scales is an important element for a wide range of applications, such as land surface parameterization, modeling of biogeochemical cycles, and carbon cycle studies. In this study, in order to meet the requirement of the retrieval of global leaf area index (LAI) and fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the vegetation (fPAR) and other studies, a global map generated from Suomi National Polar- orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) surface reflectance data in six major biome classes based on their canopy structures, which include: Grass/Cereal Crops, Shrubs, Broadleaf Crops, Savannas, Broadleaf Forests, and Needleleaf Forests, was created. The primary biome classes were converted from an International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) legend global surface type data that was created in previous study, and the separation of two crop types are based on a secondary classification.

Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

2013-08-01

Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2013-10-01

Actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions often reduce co-emitted air pollutants, bringing co-benefits for air quality and human health. Past studies typically evaluated near-term and local co-benefits, neglecting the long-range transport of air pollutants, long-term demographic changes, and the influence of climate change on air quality. Here we simulate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health using a global atmospheric model and consistent future scenarios, via two mechanisms: reducing co-emitted air pollutants, and slowing climate change and its effect on air quality. We use new relationships between chronic mortality and exposure to fine particulate matter and ozone, global modelling methods and new future scenarios. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG mitigation avoids 0.5+/-0.2, 1.3+/-0.5 and 2.2+/-0.8 million premature deaths in 2030, 2050 and 2100. Global average marginal co-benefits of avoided mortality are US$50-380 per tonne of CO2, which exceed previous estimates, exceed marginal abatement costs in 2030 and 2050, and are within the low range of costs in 2100. East Asian co-benefits are 10-70 times the marginal cost in 2030. Air quality and health co-benefits, especially as they are mainly local and near-term, provide strong additional motivation for transitioning to a low-carbon future.

Global Migration Dynamics Underlie Evolution and Persistence of Human Influenza A (H3N2)

PubMed Central

Bedford, Trevor; Cobey, Sarah; Beerli, Peter; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-01-01

The global migration patterns of influenza viruses have profound implications for the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of the disease. We developed a novel approach to reconstruct the genetic history of human influenza A (H3N2) collected worldwide over 1998 to 2009 and used it to infer the global network of influenza transmission. Consistent with previous models, we find that China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of this global network. However, we also find that strains of influenza circulate outside of Asia for multiple seasons, persisting through dynamic migration between northern and southern regions. The USA acts as the primary hub of temperate transmission and, together with China and Southeast Asia, forms the trunk of influenza's evolutionary tree. These findings suggest that antiviral use outside of China and Southeast Asia may lead to the evolution of long-term local and potentially global antiviral resistance. Our results might also aid the design of surveillance efforts and of vaccines better tailored to different geographic regions. PMID:20523898

Global migration of influenza A viruses in swine

PubMed Central

Nelson, Martha I.; Viboud, Cécile; Vincent, Amy L.; Culhane, Marie R.; Detmer, Susan E.; Wentworth, David E.; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A.; Holmes, Edward C.; Lemey, Philippe

2015-01-01

The complex and unresolved evolutionary origins of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic exposed major gaps in our knowledge of the global spatial ecology and evolution of influenza A viruses in swine (swIAVs). Here we undertake an expansive phylogenetic analysis of swIAV sequence data and demonstrate that the global live swine trade strongly predicts the spatial dissemination of swIAVs, with Europe and North America acting as sources of viruses in Asian countries. In contrast, China has the world’s largest swine population but is not a major exporter of live swine, and is not an important source of swIAVs in neighboring Asian countries or globally. A meta-population simulation model incorporating trade data predicts that the global ecology of swIAVs is more complex than previously thought, and the US and China’s large swine populations are unlikely to be representative of swIAV diversity in their respective geographic regions, requiring independent surveillance efforts throughout Latin America and Asia. PMID:25813399

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming

PubMed Central

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-01-01

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves. PMID:26951654

Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

2016-02-01

Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base with which statistics are readily calculated, for the short or long term. Such a system has potential for a quick transition to operations at NAVOCEANO.

Global Monitoring of Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Moderate-spectral-resolution Near-infrared Satellite Measurements: Methodology, Simulations, and Application to GOME-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, J.; Gaunter, L.; Lindstrot, R.; Voigt, M.; Vasilkov, A. P.; Middleton, E. M.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Yoshida, Y.; Frankenberg, C.

2013-01-01

Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2). The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0.5 deg × 0.5 deg. We also show some significant differences between fluorescence and coincident normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) retrievals.

Global Monitoring of Terrestrial Chlorophyll Fluorescence from Moderate-Spectral-Resolution Near-Infrared Satellite Measurements: Methodology, Simulations, and Application to GOME-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, J.; Guanter, L.; Lindstrot, R.; Voigt, M.; Vasilkov, A. P.; Middleton, E. M.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Yoshida, Y.; Frankenberg, C.

2013-01-01

Globally mapped terrestrial chlorophyll fluorescence retrievals are of high interest because they can provide information on the functional status of vegetation including light-use efficiency and global primary productivity that can be used for global carbon cycle modeling and agricultural applications. Previous satellite retrievals of fluorescence have relied solely upon the filling-in of solar Fraunhofer lines that are not significantly affected by atmospheric absorption. Although these measurements provide near-global coverage on a monthly basis, they suffer from relatively low precision and sparse spatial sampling. Here, we describe a new methodology to retrieve global far-red fluorescence information; we use hyperspectral data with a simplified radiative transfer model to disentangle the spectral signatures of three basic components: atmospheric absorption, surface reflectance, and fluorescence radiance. An empirically based principal component analysis approach is employed, primarily using cloudy data over ocean, to model and solve for the atmospheric absorption. Through detailed simulations, we demonstrate the feasibility of the approach and show that moderate-spectral-resolution measurements with a relatively high signal-to-noise ratio can be used to retrieve far-red fluorescence information with good precision and accuracy. The method is then applied to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Instrument 2 (GOME-2). The GOME-2 fluorescence retrievals display similar spatial structure as compared with those from a simpler technique applied to the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). GOME-2 enables global mapping of far-red fluorescence with higher precision over smaller spatial and temporal scales than is possible with GOSAT. Near-global coverage is provided within a few days. We are able to show clearly for the first time physically plausible variations in fluorescence over the course of a single month at a spatial resolution of 0.5 0.5. We also show some significant differences between fluorescence and coincident normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) retrievals.

Influence of updating global emission inventory of black carbon on evaluation of the climate and health impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Ciais, Philippe

2013-04-01

Black carbon (BC) is an air component of particular concern in terms of air quality and climate change. Black carbon emissions are often estimated based on the fuel data and emission factors. However, large variations in emission factors reported in the literature have led to a high uncertainty in previous inventories. Here, we develop a new global 0.1°×0.1° BC emission inventory for 2007 with full uncertainty analysis based on updated source and emission factor databases. Two versions of LMDz-OR-INCA models, named as INCA and INCA-zA, are run to evaluate the new emission inventory. INCA is built up based on a regular grid system with a resolution of 1.27° in latitude and 2.50° in longitude, while INCA-zA is specially zoomed to 0.51°×0.66° (latitude×longitude) in Asia. By checking against field observations, we compare our inventory with ACCMIP, which is used by IPCC in the 5th assessment report, and also evaluate the influence of model resolutions. With the newly calculated BC air concentrations and the nested model, we estimate the direct radiative forcing of BC and the premature death and mortality rate induced by BC exposure with Asia emphasized. Global BC direct radiative forcing at TOA is estimated to be 0.41 W/m2 (0.2 - 0.8 as inter-quartile range), which is 17% higher than that derived from the inventory adopted by IPCC-AR5 (0.34 W/m2). The estimated premature deaths induced by inhalation exposure to anthropogenic BC (0.36 million in 2007) and the percentage of high risk population are higher than those previously estimated. Ninety percents of the global total anthropogenic PD occur in Asia with 0.18 and 0.08 million deaths in China and India, respectively.

Multi-Decadal Global Cooling and Unprecedented Ozone Loss Following a Regional Nuclear Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, M. J.; Toon, O. B.; Lee-Taylor, J. M.; Robock, A.

2014-12-01

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea-ice and land models (Mills et al., 2014). A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15-kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon. This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)), we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric black carbon, compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies (figure panel a). Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years (figure panel c). We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30-80% over Mid-Latitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years, due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of the more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today. Mills, M. J., O. B. Toon, J. Lee-Taylor, and A. Robock (2014), Multidecadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict, Earth's Future, 2(4), 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.

Exploring the observational constraints on the simulation of brown carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xuan; Heald, Colette L.; Liu, Jiumeng; Weber, Rodney J.; Campuzano-Jost, Pedro; Jimenez, Jose L.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Perring, Anne E.

2018-01-01

Organic aerosols (OA) that strongly absorb solar radiation in the near-UV are referred to as brown carbon (BrC). The sources, evolution, and optical properties of BrC remain highly uncertain and contribute significantly to uncertainty in the estimate of the global direct radiative effect (DRE) of aerosols. Previous modeling studies of BrC optical properties and DRE have been unable to fully evaluate model performance due to the lack of direct measurements of BrC absorption. In this study, we develop a global model simulation (GEOS-Chem) of BrC and test it against BrC absorption measurements from two aircraft campaigns in the continental US (SEAC4RS and DC3). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to compare simulated BrC absorption with direct aircraft measurements. We show that BrC absorption properties estimated based on previous laboratory measurements agree with the aircraft measurements of freshly emitted BrC absorption but overestimate aged BrC absorption. In addition, applying a photochemical scheme to simulate bleaching/degradation of BrC improves model skill. The airborne observations are therefore consistent with a mass absorption coefficient (MAC) of freshly emitted biomass burning OA of 1.33 m2 g-1 at 365 nm coupled with a 1-day whitening e-folding time. Using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model integrated with the RRTMG radiative transfer model, we estimate that the top-of-the-atmosphere all-sky direct radiative effect (DRE) of OA is -0.344 Wm-2, 10 % higher than that without consideration of BrC absorption. Therefore, our best estimate of the absorption DRE of BrC is +0.048 Wm-2. We suggest that the DRE of BrC has been overestimated previously due to the lack of observational constraints from direct measurements and omission of the effects of photochemical whitening.

New AgMIP Scenarios: Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, or Nuclear War on Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.

2016-12-01

Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops in response to different climate forcings. Previous studies mainly focus on the impact from global warming. Here we propose that the AgMIP community also study the impacts of stratospheric aerosols on agriculture. While nature can load the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols for several years from large volcanic eruptions, humans could also put sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere on purpose through geoengineering or soot as a result of the fires from a nuclear war. Stratospheric aerosols would change the temperature, precipitation, total insolation, and fraction of diffuse radiation due to their radiative impacts, and could produce more ultraviolet radiation by ozone destruction. Surface ozone concentration could also change by changed transport from the stratosphere as well as changed tropospheric chemistry. As a demonstration of these effects, using the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), we have studied sulfate injection geoengineering and nuclear war impacts on global agriculture in response to temperature, precipitation and radiation changes, and found significant changes in patterns of global food production. With the new ozone module in CLM-crop, we simulated how surface ozone concentration change under sulfate injection geoengineering would change the agriculture response. Agriculture would benefit from less surface ozone concentration associated with the specific geoengineering scenario comparing with the global warming scenario. Here, we would like to encourage more crop modelers to improve crop models in terms of crop responses to ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and diffuse radiation. We also invite more global crop modeling groups to use the climate forcing we would be happy to provide to gain a better understanding of global agriculture responses under different future climate scenarios with stratospheric aerosols.

Global variations in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere system due to Sudden Impulses under different IMF By conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Slavin, J. A.; Ridley, A. J.

2016-12-01

A sudden impulse (SI) event is a rapid increase in solar wind dynamic pressure, which compresses the Earth's magnetosphere from the dayside and travels towards the Earth's tail. During the SI events, compression front reconfigures the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere (MI) current systems. This compression launches fast magnetosonic waves that carry the SI through magnetosphere and Alfven waves that enhance the field-aligned currents (FACs) at high-latitudes. FAC systems can be measured by Active Magnetosphere and Polar Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE). The propagation front also creates travelling convection vortices (TCVs) in the ionosphere that map to the equatorial flank regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. The TCVs then move from dayside to the nightside ionosphere. To understand these SI-driven disturbances globally, we use the University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) with Global Magnetosphere (GM), Inner Magnetosphere (IM) and Ionosphere (IE) modules. We study the changes in the FAC systems, which link ionospheric and magnetospheric propagating disturbances under different IMF By conditions and trace the ionospheric disturbances to magnetospheric system to better understand the connection between two systems. As shown by previous studies, IMF By can cause asymmetries in the magnetic perturbations measured by the ground magnetometers. By using model results we determine the global latitudinal and longitudinal dependencies of the SI signatures on the ground. We also use the SWMF results to drive the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) to reveal how the Ionosphere-Thermosphere system is affected by the SI propagation. Comparisons are carried out between the IE model output and high latitude convection patterns from Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) measurements and SuperMAG ground magnetic field perturbations. In closing we have modeled the field-aligned currents, ionospheric convection patterns, temperature and density profiles to explore the global coupling of the ionosphere to magnetosphere during SI events with different By orientation.

ForC: a global database of forest carbon stocks and fluxes.

PubMed

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J; Wang, Maria M H; McGarvey, Jennifer C; Herrmann, Valentine; Tepley, Alan J; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; LeBauer, David S

2018-06-01

Forests play an influential role in the global carbon (C) cycle, storing roughly half of terrestrial C and annually exchanging with the atmosphere more than five times the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emitted by anthropogenic activities. Yet, scaling up from field-based measurements of forest C stocks and fluxes to understand global scale C cycling and its climate sensitivity remains an important challenge. Tens of thousands of forest C measurements have been made, but these data have yet to be integrated into a single database that makes them accessible for integrated analyses. Here we present an open-access global Forest Carbon database (ForC) containing previously published records of field-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes, along with disturbance history and methodological information. ForC expands upon the previously published tropical portion of this database, TropForC (https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.t516f), now including 17,367 records (previously 3,568) representing 2,731 plots (previously 845) in 826 geographically distinct areas. The database covers all forested biogeographic and climate zones, represents forest stands of all ages, and currently includes data collected between 1934 and 2015. We expect that ForC will prove useful for macroecological analyses of forest C cycling, for evaluation of model predictions or remote sensing products, for quantifying the contribution of forests to the global C cycle, and for supporting international efforts to inventory forest carbon and greenhouse gas exchange. A dynamic version of ForC is maintained at on GitHub (https://GitHub.com/forc-db), and we encourage the research community to collaborate in updating, correcting, expanding, and utilizing this database. ForC is an open access database, and we encourage use of the data for scientific research and education purposes. Data may not be used for commercial purposes without written permission of the database PI. Any publications using ForC data should cite this publication and Anderson-Teixeira et al. (2016a) (see Metadata S1). No other copyright or cost restrictions are associated with the use of this data set. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

A global trait-based approach to estimate leaf nitrogen functional allocation from observations

DOE PAGES

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.; ...

2017-03-28

Nitrogen is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth and a major constituent of proteins that regulate photosynthetic and respiratory processes. However, a comprehensive global analysis of nitrogen allocation in leaves for major processes with respect to different plant functional types is currently lacking. This study integrated observations from global databases with photosynthesis and respiration models to determine plant-functional-type-specific allocation patterns of leaf nitrogen for photosynthesis (Rubisco, electron transport, light absorption) and respiration (growth and maintenance), and by difference from observed total leaf nitrogen, an unexplained “residual” nitrogen pool. Based on our analysis, crops partition the largest fractionmore » of nitrogen to photosynthesis (57%) and respiration (5%) followed by herbaceous plants (44% and 4%). Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees partition the least to photosynthesis (25%) and respiration (2%) followed by needle-leaved evergreen trees (28% and 3%). In trees (especially needle-leaved evergreen and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees) a large fraction (70% and 73% respectively) of nitrogen was not explained by photosynthetic or respiratory functions. Compared to crops and herbaceous plants, this large residual pool is hypothesized to emerge from larger investments in cell wall proteins, lipids, amino acids, nucleic acid, CO2 fixation proteins (other than Rubisco), secondary compounds, and other proteins. Our estimates are different from previous studies due to differences in methodology and assumptions used in deriving nitrogen allocation estimates. Unlike previous studies, we integrate and infer nitrogen allocation estimates across multiple plant functional types, and report substantial differences in nitrogen allocation across different plant functional types. Furthermore, the resulting pattern of nitrogen allocation provides insights on mechanisms that operate at a cellular scale within leaves, and can be integrated with ecosystem models to derive emergent properties of ecosystem productivity at local, regional, and global scales.« less

A global trait-based approach to estimate leaf nitrogen functional allocation from observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghimire, Bardan; Riley, William J.; Koven, Charles D.

Nitrogen is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth and a major constituent of proteins that regulate photosynthetic and respiratory processes. However, a comprehensive global analysis of nitrogen allocation in leaves for major processes with respect to different plant functional types is currently lacking. This study integrated observations from global databases with photosynthesis and respiration models to determine plant-functional-type-specific allocation patterns of leaf nitrogen for photosynthesis (Rubisco, electron transport, light absorption) and respiration (growth and maintenance), and by difference from observed total leaf nitrogen, an unexplained “residual” nitrogen pool. Based on our analysis, crops partition the largest fractionmore » of nitrogen to photosynthesis (57%) and respiration (5%) followed by herbaceous plants (44% and 4%). Tropical broadleaf evergreen trees partition the least to photosynthesis (25%) and respiration (2%) followed by needle-leaved evergreen trees (28% and 3%). In trees (especially needle-leaved evergreen and tropical broadleaf evergreen trees) a large fraction (70% and 73% respectively) of nitrogen was not explained by photosynthetic or respiratory functions. Compared to crops and herbaceous plants, this large residual pool is hypothesized to emerge from larger investments in cell wall proteins, lipids, amino acids, nucleic acid, CO2 fixation proteins (other than Rubisco), secondary compounds, and other proteins. Our estimates are different from previous studies due to differences in methodology and assumptions used in deriving nitrogen allocation estimates. Unlike previous studies, we integrate and infer nitrogen allocation estimates across multiple plant functional types, and report substantial differences in nitrogen allocation across different plant functional types. Furthermore, the resulting pattern of nitrogen allocation provides insights on mechanisms that operate at a cellular scale within leaves, and can be integrated with ecosystem models to derive emergent properties of ecosystem productivity at local, regional, and global scales.« less

Updated Global Burden of Cholera in Endemic Countries

PubMed Central

Ali, Mohammad; Nelson, Allyson R.; Lopez, Anna Lena; Sack, David A.

2015-01-01

Background The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. PMID:26043000

Contribution of bioaerosols to the global organic aerosol budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janssen, R.; Heald, C. L.

2017-12-01

Bioaerosols are ubiquitous in the atmosphere and may contribute significantly to cloud condensation and ice nuclei populations, and consequently to formation of clouds and precipitation. However, quantifying the contribution of bioaerosols to the global organic aerosol budget is a challenge, since bioaerosol sources are poorly constrained on the global scale. Previous global estimates of global primary biological aerosol particle (PBAP) emissions, including bacteria, fungal spores and pollen, range from 78-296 Tg/year. Over the past several years, size-resolved measurements of fluorescent biological aerosol particles have been made in tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems. Besides, single particle mass spectroscopy has been used to quantify bioaerosol concentrations at various locations in the US. We use these observations to develop and evaluate a bioaerosol emission scheme that describes both the biological production of bioaerosols and the meteorological drivers of the emission of these particles into the atmosphere. Then, we implement this scheme in the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model to estimate the emission, burden and lifetime of bioaerosols. Finally, we evaluate the contribution of bioaerosols to the total organic aerosol budget, which further consists of primary and secondary organic aerosol.

A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanley, Thomas; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.

2017-01-01

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.

Global budget of tropospheric ozone: Evaluating recent model advances with satellite (OMI), aircraft (IAGOS), and ozonesonde observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Lu; Jacob, Daniel J.; Liu, Xiong; Zhang, Yi; Zhang, Lin; Kim, Patrick S.; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

2017-10-01

The global budget of tropospheric ozone is governed by a complicated ensemble of coupled chemical and dynamical processes. Simulation of tropospheric ozone has been a major focus of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) over the past 20 years, and many developments over the years have affected the model representation of the ozone budget. Here we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of the standard version of GEOS-Chem (v10-01) with ozone observations from ozonesondes, the OMI satellite instrument, and MOZAIC-IAGOS commercial aircraft for 2012-2013. Global validation of the OMI 700-400 hPa data with ozonesondes shows that OMI maintained persistent high quality and no significant drift over the 2006-2013 period. GEOS-Chem shows no significant seasonal or latitudinal bias relative to OMI and strong correlations in all seasons on the 2° × 2.5° horizontal scale (r = 0.88-0.95), improving on previous model versions. The most pronounced model bias revealed by ozonesondes and MOZAIC-IAGOS is at high northern latitudes in winter-spring where the model is 10-20 ppbv too low. This appears to be due to insufficient stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Model updates to lightning NOx, Asian anthropogenic emissions, bromine chemistry, isoprene chemistry, and meteorological fields over the past decade have overall led to gradual increase in the simulated global tropospheric ozone burden and more active ozone production and loss. From simulations with different versions of GEOS meteorological fields we find that tropospheric ozone in GEOS-Chem v10-01 has a global production rate of 4960-5530 Tg a-1, lifetime of 20.9-24.2 days, burden of 345-357 Tg, and STE of 325-492 Tg a-1. Change in the intensity of tropical deep convection between these different meteorological fields is a major factor driving differences in the ozone budget.

The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

2013-12-01

At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), III. Re-computed MS and mb, proxy MW, final magnitude composition and completeness assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondár, István; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Bormann, Peter; Harris, James

2015-02-01

This paper outlines the re-computation and compilation of the magnitudes now contained in the final ISC-GEM Reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). The catalogue is available via the ISC website (http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/). The available re-computed MS and mb provided an ideal basis for deriving new conversion relationships to moment magnitude MW. Therefore, rather than using previously published regression models, we derived new empirical relationships using both generalized orthogonal linear and exponential non-linear models to obtain MW proxies from MS and mb. The new models were tested against true values of MW, and the newly derived exponential models were then preferred to the linear ones in computing MW proxies. For the final magnitude composition of the ISC-GEM catalogue, we preferred directly measured MW values as published by the Global CMT project for the period 1976-2009 (plus intermediate-depth earthquakes between 1962 and 1975). In addition, over 1000 publications have been examined to obtain direct seismic moment M0 and, therefore, also MW estimates for 967 large earthquakes during 1900-1978 (Lee and Engdahl, 2015) by various alternative methods to the current GCMT procedure. In all other instances we computed MW proxy values by converting our re-computed MS and mb values into MW, using the newly derived non-linear regression models. The final magnitude composition is an improvement in terms of magnitude homogeneity compared to previous catalogues. The magnitude completeness is not homogeneous over the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue. Therefore, seismicity rate estimates may be strongly affected without a careful time window selection. In particular, the ISC-GEM catalogue appears to be complete down to MW 5.6 starting from 1964, whereas for the early instrumental period the completeness varies from ∼7.5 to 6.2. Further time and resources would be necessary to homogenize the magnitude of completeness over the entire catalogue length.

Regime-Based Evaluation of Cloudiness in CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Daeho; Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dong Min

2016-01-01

The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.

Electron Impact Ionization: A New Parameterization for 100 eV to 1 MeV Electrons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Xiaohua; Randall, Cora E.; Lummerzheim, Dirk; Solomon, Stanley C.; Mills, Michael J.; Marsh, Daniel; Jackman, Charles H.; Wang, Wenbin; Lu, Gang

2008-01-01

Low, medium and high energy electrons can penetrate to the thermosphere (90-400 km; 55-240 miles) and mesosphere (50-90 km; 30-55 miles). These precipitating electrons ionize that region of the atmosphere, creating positively charged atoms and molecules and knocking off other negatively charged electrons. The precipitating electrons also create nitrogen-containing compounds along with other constituents. Since the electron precipitation amounts change within minutes, it is necessary to have a rapid method of computing the ionization and production of nitrogen-containing compounds for inclusion in computationally-demanding global models. A new methodology has been developed, which has parameterized a more detailed model computation of the ionizing impact of precipitating electrons over the very large range of 100 eV up to 1,000,000 eV. This new parameterization method is more accurate than a previous parameterization scheme, when compared with the more detailed model computation. Global models at the National Center for Atmospheric Research will use this new parameterization method in the near future.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.

2001-01-01

This document presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2001 Version (Mars-GRAM 2001) and its new features. As with the previous version (mars-2000), all parameterizations fro temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and season (Ls) use input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 70 km. Mars-GRAM 2001 is based on topography from the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and includes new MGCM data at the topographic surface. A new auxiliary program allows Mars-GRAM output to be used to compute shortwave (solar) and longwave (thermal) radiation at the surface and top of atmosphere. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAN source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

A theoretical study of the global F region for June solstice, solar maximum, and low magnetic activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sojka, J. J.; Schunk, R. W.

1985-01-01

A time-dependent, three-dimensional, multi-ion model of the ionospheric F region at 120-800 km altitude is presented. Account is taken of field-aligned diffusion, cross-field electrodynamic drifts in equatorial and high latitude regions, interhemispheric flow, thermospheric winds, polar wind escape, energy-dependent chemical reactions and neutral composition changes. Attention is also given to the effects of ion production by solar EUV radiation and auroral precipitation, thermal conduction, diffusion-thermal heat flow, local heating and cooling processes, offsets between the geomagnetic and geographic poles, and bending of field lines near the magnetic equator. The model incorporates all phenomena described by previous models and can be applied to tracing magnetic storm and substorm disturbances from high to low latitudes on a global scale. Sample results are provided for ionospheric features during a June solstice, the solar maximum and in a period of low geomagnetic activity. The model will eventually be used to study coupled ionosphere-thermosphere activity.

Autoxidation of jet fuels: Implications for modeling and thermal stability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heneghan, S.P.; Chin, L.P.

1995-05-01

The study and modeling of jet fuel thermal deposition is dependent on an understanding of and ability to model the oxidation chemistry. Global modeling of jet fuel oxidation is complicated by several facts. First, liquid jet fuels are hard to heat rapidly and fuels may begin to oxidize during the heat-up phase. Non-isothermal conditions can be accounted for but the evaluation of temperature versus time is difficult. Second, the jet fuels are a mixture of many compounds that may oxidize at different rates. Third, jet fuel oxidation may be autoaccelerating through the decomposition of the oxidation products. Attempts to modelmore » the deposition of jet fuels in two different flowing systems showed the inadequacy of a simple two-parameter global Arrhenius oxidation rate constant. Discarding previous assumptions about the form of the global rate constants results in a four parameter model (which accounts for autoacceleration). This paper discusses the source of the rate constant form and the meaning of each parameter. One of these parameters is associated with the pre-exponential of the autoxidation chain length. This value is expected to vary inversely to thermal stability. We calculate the parameters for two different fuels and discuss the implication to thermal and oxidative stability of the fuels. Finally, we discuss the effect of non-Arrhenius behavior on current modeling of deposition efforts.« less

ModFOLD6: an accurate web server for the global and local quality estimation of 3D protein models.

PubMed

Maghrabi, Ali H A; McGuffin, Liam J

2017-07-03

Methods that reliably estimate the likely similarity between the predicted and native structures of proteins have become essential for driving the acceptance and adoption of three-dimensional protein models by life scientists. ModFOLD6 is the latest version of our leading resource for Estimates of Model Accuracy (EMA), which uses a pioneering hybrid quasi-single model approach. The ModFOLD6 server integrates scores from three pure-single model methods and three quasi-single model methods using a neural network to estimate local quality scores. Additionally, the server provides three options for producing global score estimates, depending on the requirements of the user: (i) ModFOLD6_rank, which is optimized for ranking/selection, (ii) ModFOLD6_cor, which is optimized for correlations of predicted and observed scores and (iii) ModFOLD6 global for balanced performance. The ModFOLD6 methods rank among the top few for EMA, according to independent blind testing by the CASP12 assessors. The ModFOLD6 server is also continuously automatically evaluated as part of the CAMEO project, where significant performance gains have been observed compared to our previous server and other publicly available servers. The ModFOLD6 server is freely available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Modelling global nitrogen export to ground and surface water from natural ecosystems: impact of N deposition, climate, and CO2 concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc; Smith, Ben; Wassen, Martin

2015-04-01

For large regions in the world strong increases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted as a result of emissions from fossil fuel combustion and food production. This will cause many previously N limited ecosystems to become N saturated, leading to increased export to ground and surface water and negative impacts on the environment and human health. However, precise N export fluxes are difficult to predict. Due to its strong link to carbon, N in vegetation and soil is also determined by productivity, as affected by rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature, and denitrification. Furthermore, the N concentration of water delivered to streams depends strongly on local hydrological conditions. We aim to study how N delivery to ground and surface water is affected by changes in environmental factors. To this end we are developing a global dynamic modelling system that integrates representations of N cycling in vegetation and soil, and N delivery to ground and surface water. This will be achieved by coupling the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, which includes representations of N cycling, as well as croplands and pasture, to the global water balance model PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface runoff, interflow, groundwater recharge, and baseflow. This coupling will allow us to trace N across different systems and estimate the input of N into the riverine system which can be used as input for river biogeochemical models. We will present large scale estimates of N leaching and transport to ground and surface water for natural ecosystems in different biomes, based on a loose coupling of the two models. Furthermore, by means of a factorial model experiment we will explore how these fluxes are influenced by N deposition, temperature, and CO2 concentration.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years.

PubMed

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-10-26

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections.

Global-scale river flood vulnerability in the last 50 years

PubMed Central

Tanoue, Masahiro; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Ikeuchi, Hiroaki

2016-01-01

The impacts of flooding are expected to rise due to population increases, economic growth and climate change. Hence, understanding the physical and spatiotemporal characteristics of risk drivers (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) is required to develop effective flood mitigation measures. Here, the long-term trend in flood vulnerability was analysed globally, calculated from the ratio of the reported flood loss or damage to the modelled flood exposure using a global river and inundation model. A previous study showed decreasing global flood vulnerability over a shorter period using different disaster data. The long-term analysis demonstrated for the first time that flood vulnerability to economic losses in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries shows an inverted U-shape, as a result of the balance between economic growth and various historical socioeconomic efforts to reduce damage, leading to non-significant upward or downward trends. We also show that the flood-exposed population is affected by historical changes in population distribution, with changes in flood vulnerability of up to 48.9%. Both increasing and decreasing trends in flood vulnerability were observed in different countries, implying that population growth scenarios considering spatial distribution changes could affect flood risk projections. PMID:27782160

Tilted string cosmologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clancy, Dominic; Feinstein, Alexander; Lidsey, James E.; Tavakol, Reza

1999-04-01

Global symmetries of the string effective action are employed to generate tilted, homogeneous Bianchi type VIh string cosmologies from a previously known stiff perfect fluid solution to Einstein gravity. The dilaton field is not constant on the surfaces of homogeneity. The future asymptotic state of the models is interpreted as a plane wave and is itself an exact solution to the string equations of motion to all orders in the inverse string tension. An inhomogeneous generalization of the Bianchi type III model is also found.

Skill Testing a Three-Dimensional Global Tide Model to Historical Current Meter Records

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-17

up to 20% weaker skill in the Southern Ocean. Citation: Timko, P. G., B. K. Arbic, J. G. Richman, R . B. Scott, E. J. Metzger, and A. J. Wallcraft (2013...model were identified from a current meter archive ( CMA ) of approximately 9000 unique time series previously used by Scott et al. [2010] and Timko et al...2012]. The CMA spans 40 years of observations. Some of the velocity records used in this study represents individ- ual depth bins from ADCP’s. The

A 24.5-Year Global Dataset of Direct Normal Irradiance: Result from the Application of a Global-to-Beam Model to the NASA GEWEX SRB Global Horizontal Irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Stackhouse, P. W.; Chandler, W.; Hoell, J. M., Jr.; Westberg, D. J.

2015-12-01

The DIRINDEX model has previously been applied to the NASA GEWEX SRB Release 3.0 global horizontal irradiances (GHIs) to derive 3-hourly, daily and monthly mean direct normal irradiances (DNIs) for the period from 2000 to 2005 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2014.09.006), though the model was originally designed to estimate hourly DNIs from hourly GHIs. Input to the DIRINDEX model comprised 1.) the 3-hourly all-sky and clear-sky GHIs from the GEWEX SRB dataset; 2.) the surface pressure and the atmospheric column water vapor from the GEOS4 dataset; and 3.) daily mean aerosol optical depth at 700 nm derived from the daily mean aerosol data from the Model of Atmospheric Transport and CHemistry (MATCH). The GEWEX SRB data is spatially available on a quasi-equal-area global grid system consisting of 44016 boxes ranging from 1 degree latitude by 1 degree longitude around the Equator to 1 degree latitude by 120 degree longitude next to the poles. The derived DNIs were on the same grid system. Due to the limited availability of the MATCH aerosol data, the model was applied to the years from 2000 to 2005 only. The results were compared with ground-based measurements from 39 sites of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). The comparison statistics show that the results were in better agreement with their BSRN counterparts than the current Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Release 6.0 data (https://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/sse/). In this paper, we present results from the model over the entire time span of the GEWEX SRB Release 3.0 data (July 1983 to December2007) in which the MERRA atmospheric data were substituted for the GEOS4 data, and the Max-Planck Aerosol Climatology Version 1 (MAC-v1) data for the MATCH data. As a consequence, we derived a 24.5-year DNI dataset of global coverage continuous from July 1983 to December 2007. Comparisons with the BSRN data show that the results are comparable in quality with that from the earlier application.

An updated geospatial liquefaction model for global application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Jing; Baise, Laurie G.; Thompson, Eric M.

2017-01-01

We present an updated geospatial approach to estimation of earthquake-induced liquefaction from globally available geospatial proxies. Our previous iteration of the geospatial liquefaction model was based on mapped liquefaction surface effects from four earthquakes in Christchurch, New Zealand, and Kobe, Japan, paired with geospatial explanatory variables including slope-derived VS30, compound topographic index, and magnitude-adjusted peak ground acceleration from ShakeMap. The updated geospatial liquefaction model presented herein improves the performance and the generality of the model. The updates include (1) expanding the liquefaction database to 27 earthquake events across 6 countries, (2) addressing the sampling of nonliquefaction for incomplete liquefaction inventories, (3) testing interaction effects between explanatory variables, and (4) overall improving model performance. While we test 14 geospatial proxies for soil density and soil saturation, the most promising geospatial parameters are slope-derived VS30, modeled water table depth, distance to coast, distance to river, distance to closest water body, and precipitation. We found that peak ground velocity (PGV) performs better than peak ground acceleration (PGA) as the shaking intensity parameter. We present two models which offer improved performance over prior models. We evaluate model performance using the area under the curve under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and the Brier score. The best-performing model in a coastal setting uses distance to coast but is problematic for regions away from the coast. The second best model, using PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to closest water body, and precipitation, performs better in noncoastal regions and thus is the model we recommend for global implementation.

Assessment of the suitability of GOCE-based geoid models for the unification of the North American vertical datums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amjadiparvar, Babak; Sideris, Michael

2015-04-01

Precise gravimetric geoid heights are required when the unification of vertical datums is performed using the Geodetic Boundary Value Problem (GBVP) approach. Five generations of Global Geopotential Models (GGMs) derived from Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) observations have been computed and released so far (available via IAG's International Centre for Global Earth Models, ICGEM, http://icgem.gfz-potsdam.de/ICGEM/). The performance of many of these models with respect to geoid determination has been studied in order to select the best performing model to be used in height datum unification in North America. More specifically, Release-3, 4 and 5 of the GOCE-based global geopotential models have been evaluated using GNSS-levelling data as independent control values. Comparisons against EGM2008 show that each successive release improves upon the previous one, with Release-5 models showing an improvement over EGM2008 in Canada and CONUS between spherical harmonic degrees 100 and 210. In Alaska and Mexico, a considerable improvement over EGM2008 was brought by the Release-5 models when used up to spherical harmonic degrees of 250 and 280, respectively. The positive impact of the Release-5 models was also felt when a gravimetric geoid was computed using the GOCE-based GGMs together with gravity and topography data in Canada. This geoid model, with appropriately modified Stokes kernel between spherical harmonic degrees 190 and 260, performed better than the official Canadian gravimetric geoid model CGG2013, thus illustrating the advantages of using the latest release GOCE-based models for vertical datum unification in North America.

Postglacial Rebound and Current Ice Loss Estimates from Space Geodesy: The New ICE-6G (VM5a) Global Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. R.; Argus, D.; Drummond, R.; Moore, A. W.

2012-12-01

We compare, on a global basis, estimates of site velocity against predictions of the newly constructed postglacial rebound model ICE-6G (VM5a). This model is fit to observations of North American postglacial rebound thereby demonstrating that the ice sheet at last glacial maximum must have been, relative to ICE-5G,thinner in southern Manitoba, thinner near Yellowknife (northwest Territories), thicker in eastern and southern Quebec, and thicker along the British Columbia-Alberta border. The GPS based estimates of site velocity that we employ are more accurate than were previously available because they are based on GPS estimates of position as a function of time determined by incorporating satellite phase center variations [Desai et al. 2011]. These GPS estimates are constraining postglacial rebound in North America and Europe more tightly than ever before. In particular, given the high density of GPS sites in North America, and the fact that the velocity of the mass center (CM) of Earth is also more tightly constrained, the new model much more strongly constrains both the lateral extent of the proglacial forebulge and the rate at which this peripheral bulge (that was emplaced peripheral to the late Pleistocence Laurentia ice sheet) is presently collapsing. This fact proves to be important to the more accurate inference of the current rate of ice loss from both Greenland and Alaska based upon the time dependent gravity observations being provided by the GRACE satellite system. In West Antarctica we have also been able to significantly revise the previously prevalent ICE-5G deglaciation history so as to enable its predictions to be optimally consistent with GPS site velocities determined by connecting campaign WAGN measurements to those provided by observations from the permanent ANET sites. Ellsworth Land (south of the Antarctic peninsula), is observed to be rising at 6 ±3 mm/yr according to our latest analyses; the Ellsworth mountains themselves are observed to be rising at 5 ±4 mm/yr; Palmer Land is observed to be rising at 3 ±3 mm/yr. The predictions of the ICE-5G (VM2) model and those of the postglacial rebound component of the model of Simons, Ivins, and James [2010] had predicted uplift to be significantly faster than observed in this region, as previously documented in Argus et al [2011]. From a global perspective the new ICE-6G (VM5a) model is also a further significant improvement on the previous ICE-5G (VM2) model in that the degree two and order one components of its predicted time dependence of geoid height are tightly constrained by the recent inferences of Roy and Peltier [2011] of the post-GRACE-launch values of the speed and direction of true polar wander and the non-tidal acceleration of the lod. .

Localized Models of Charged Particle Motion in Martian Crustal Magnetic Cusps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brain, D. A.; Poppe, A. R.; Jarvinen, R.; Dong, Y.; Egan, H. L.; Fang, X.

2017-12-01

The induced magnetosphere of Mars is punctuated by localized but strong crustal magnetic fields that are observed to play host to a variety of phenomena typically associated with global magnetic fields, such as auroral processes and particle precipitation, field-aligned current systems, and ion outflow. Each of these phenomena occur on the night side, in small-scale magnetic `cusp' regions of vertically aligned field. Cusp regions are not yet capable of being spatially resolved in global scale models that include the ion kinetics necessary for simulating charged particle transport along cusps. Local models are therefore necessary if we are to understand how cusp processes operate at Mars. Here we present the first results of an effort to model the kinetic particle motion and electric fields in Martian cusps. We are adapting both a 1.5D Particle-in-Cell (PIC) model for lunar magnetic cusps regions to the Martian case and a hybrid model framework (used previously for the global Martian plasma interaction and for lunar magnetic anomaly regions) to cusps in 2D. By comparing the models we can asses the importance of electron kinetics in particle transport along cusp field lines. In this first stage of our study we model a moderately strong nightside cusp, with incident hot hydrogen plasma from above, and cold planetary (oxygen) plasma entering the simulation from below. We report on the spatial and temporal distribution of plasma along cusp field lines for this initial case.

Traveling waves in a magnetized Taylor-Couette flow.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Goodman, Jeremy; Ji, Hantao

2007-07-01

We investigate numerically a traveling wave pattern observed in experimental magnetized Taylor-Couette flow at low magnetic Reynolds number. By accurately modeling viscous and magnetic boundaries in all directions, we reproduce the experimentally measured wave patterns and their amplitudes. Contrary to previous claims, the waves are shown to be transiently amplified disturbances launched by viscous boundary layers, rather than globally unstable magnetorotational modes.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, Chris L.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ostrom, C.

2017-01-01

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE PAGES

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; ...

2016-01-22

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity

PubMed Central

Stock, Charles A.; Asch, Rebecca G.; Cheung, William W. L.; Dunne, John P.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Watson, Reg A.

2017-01-01

Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained (r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that (i) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, (ii) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, (iii) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change. PMID:28115722

Reconciling fisheries catch and ocean productivity.

PubMed

Stock, Charles A; John, Jasmin G; Rykaczewski, Ryan R; Asch, Rebecca G; Cheung, William W L; Dunne, John P; Friedland, Kevin D; Lam, Vicky W Y; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Watson, Reg A

2017-02-21

Photosynthesis fuels marine food webs, yet differences in fish catch across globally distributed marine ecosystems far exceed differences in net primary production (NPP). We consider the hypothesis that ecosystem-level variations in pelagic and benthic energy flows from phytoplankton to fish, trophic transfer efficiencies, and fishing effort can quantitatively reconcile this contrast in an energetically consistent manner. To test this hypothesis, we enlist global fish catch data that include previously neglected contributions from small-scale fisheries, a synthesis of global fishing effort, and plankton food web energy flux estimates from a prototype high-resolution global earth system model (ESM). After removing a small number of lightly fished ecosystems, stark interregional differences in fish catch per unit area can be explained ( r = 0.79) with an energy-based model that ( i ) considers dynamic interregional differences in benthic and pelagic energy pathways connecting phytoplankton and fish, ( ii ) depresses trophic transfer efficiencies in the tropics and, less critically, ( iii ) associates elevated trophic transfer efficiencies with benthic-predominant systems. Model catch estimates are generally within a factor of 2 of values spanning two orders of magnitude. Climate change projections show that the same macroecological patterns explaining dramatic regional catch differences in the contemporary ocean amplify catch trends, producing changes that may exceed 50% in some regions by the end of the 21st century under high-emissions scenarios. Models failing to resolve these trophodynamic patterns may significantly underestimate regional fisheries catch trends and hinder adaptation to climate change.

Constraints on global oceanic emissions of N2O from observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Suntharalingam, Parvadha; Le Quéré, Corinne

2018-04-01

We estimate the global ocean N2O flux to the atmosphere and its confidence interval using a statistical method based on model perturbation simulations and their fit to a database of ΔpN2O (n = 6136). We evaluate two submodels of N2O production. The first submodel splits N2O production into oxic and hypoxic pathways following previous publications. The second submodel explicitly represents the redox transformations of N that lead to N2O production (nitrification and hypoxic denitrification) and N2O consumption (suboxic denitrification), and is presented here for the first time. We perturb both submodels by modifying the key parameters of the N2O cycling pathways (nitrification rates; NH4+ uptake; N2O yields under oxic, hypoxic and suboxic conditions) and determine a set of optimal model parameters by minimisation of a cost function against four databases of N cycle observations. Our estimate of the global oceanic N2O flux resulting from this cost function minimisation derived from observed and model ΔpN2O concentrations is 2.4 ± 0.8 and 2.5 ± 0.8 Tg N yr-1 for the two N2O submodels. These estimates suggest that the currently available observational data of surface ΔpN2O constrain the global N2O flux to a narrower range relative to the large range of results presented in the latest IPCC report.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

A Vertically Flow-Following, Icosahedral Grid Model for Medium-Range and Seasonal Prediction. Part 1: Model Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bleck, Rainer; Bao, Jian-Wen; Benjamin, Stanley G.; Brown, John M.; Fiorino, Michael; Henderson, Thomas B.; Lee, Jin-Luen; MacDonald, Alexander E.; Madden, Paul; Middlecoff, Jacques;

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T.

1996-01-01

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

Nitrogen feedbacks increase future terrestrial ecosystem carbon uptake in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, D.; Smith, B.; Hickler, T.; Arneth, A.

2014-11-01

Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic vegetation model employing a detailed individual- and patch-based representation of vegetation dynamics, to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one representative "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single-factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model as documented in previous studies using other global models. Under an RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics up to the present. However, during the 21st century, nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contrasts with previous results with other global models that have shown an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake relative to modern baseline conditions. Implications for the plausibility of earlier projections of future terrestrial C dynamics based on C-only models are discussed.

Sea level change since 2005: importance of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llovel, W.; Purkey, S.; Meyssignac, B.; Kolodziejczyk, N.; Blazquez, A.; Bamber, J. L.

2017-12-01

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences of the actual global warming. Global mean sea level has been rising at a faster rate since 1993 (over the satellite altimetry era) than previous decades. This rise is expected to accelerate over the coming decades and century. At global scale, sea level rise is caused by a combination of freshwater increase from land ice melting and land water changes (mass component) and ocean warming (thermal expansion). Estimating the causes is of great interest not only to understand the past sea level changes but also to validate projections based on climate models. In this study, we investigate the global mass contribution to recent sea level changes with an alternative approach by estimating the global ocean freshening. For that purpose, we consider the unprecedented amount of salinity measurements from Argo floats for the past decade (2005-2015). We compare our results to the ocean mass inferred by GRACE data and based on a sea level budget approach. Our results bring new constrains on the global water cycle (ocean freshening) and energy budget (ocean warming) as well as on the global ocean mass directly inferred from GRACE data.

Global quantum discord and matrix product density operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Hai-Lin; Cheng, Hong-Guang; Guo, Xiao; Zhang, Duo; Wu, Yuyin; Xu, Jian; Sun, Zhao-Yu

2018-06-01

In a previous study, we have proposed a procedure to study global quantum discord in 1D chains whose ground states are described by matrix product states [Z.-Y. Sun et al., Ann. Phys. 359, 115 (2015)]. In this paper, we show that with a very simple generalization, the procedure can be used to investigate quantum mixed states described by matrix product density operators, such as quantum chains at finite temperatures and 1D subchains in high-dimensional lattices. As an example, we study the global discord in the ground state of a 2D transverse-field Ising lattice, and pay our attention to the scaling behavior of global discord in 1D sub-chains of the lattice. We find that, for any strength of the magnetic field, global discord always shows a linear scaling behavior as the increase of the length of the sub-chains. In addition, global discord and the so-called "discord density" can be used to indicate the quantum phase transition in the model. Furthermore, based upon our numerical results, we make some reliable predictions about the scaling of global discord defined on the n × n sub-squares in the lattice.

Implications of climate variability for monitoring the effectiveness of global mercury policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giang, A.; Monier, E.; Couzo, E. A.; Pike-thackray, C.; Selin, N. E.

2016-12-01

We investigate how climate variability affects ability to detect policy-related anthropogenic changes in mercury emissions in wet deposition monitoring data using earth system and atmospheric chemistry modeling. The Minamata Convention, a multilateral environmental agreement that aims to protect human health and the environment from anthropogenic emissions and releases of mercury, includes provisions for monitoring treaty effectiveness. Because meteorology can affect mercury chemistry and transport, internal variability is an important contributor to uncertainty in how effective policy may be in reducing the amount of mercury entering ecosystems through wet deposition. We simulate mercury chemistry using the GEOS-Chem global transport model to assess the influence of meteorology in the context of other uncertainties in mercury cycling and policy. In these simulations, we find that interannual variability in meteorology may be a dominant contributor to the spatial pattern and magnitude of historical regional wet deposition trends. To further assess the influence of climate variability in the GEOS-Chem mercury simulation, we use a 5-member ensemble of meteorological fields from the MIT Integrated Global System Model under present and future climate. Each member involves randomly initialized 20 year simulations centered around 2000 and 2050 (under a no-policy and a climate stabilization scenario). Building on previous efforts to understand climate-air quality interactions for ground-level O3 and particulate matter, we estimate from the ensemble the range of trends in mercury wet deposition given natural variability, and, to extend our previous results on regions that are sensitive to near-source vs. remote anthropogenic signals, we identify geographic regions where mercury wet deposition is most sensitive to this variability. We discuss how an improved understanding of natural variability can inform the Conference of Parties on monitoring strategy and policy ambition.

Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: A global carbon budget perspective Fabian Reith, David P. Keller & Andreas Oschlies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reith, F.; Keller, D. P.; Martin, T.; Oschlies, A.

2015-12-01

Marchetti [1977] proposed that CO2 could be directly injected into the deep ocean to mitigate its rapid build-up in the atmosphere. Although previous studies have investigated biogeochemical and climatic effects of injecting CO2 into the ocean, they have not looked at global carbon cycle feedbacks and backfluxes that are important for accounting. Using an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity we simulated the injection of CO2 into the deep ocean during a high CO2 emissions scenario. At seven sites 0.1 GtC yr-1 was injected at three different depths (3 separate experiments) between the years 2020 and 2120. After the 100-year injection period, our simulations continued until the year 3020 to assess the long-term dynamics. In addition, we investigated the effects of marine sediment feedbacks during the experiments by running the model with and without a sediment sub-model. Our results, in regards to efficiency (the residence time of injected CO2) and seawater chemistry changes, are similar to previous studies. However, from a carbon budget perspective the targeted cumulative atmospheric CO2 reduction of 70 GtC was never reached. This was caused by the atmosphere-to-terrestrial and/or atmosphere-to-ocean carbon fluxes (relative to the control run), which were effected by the reduction in atmospheric carbon. With respect to global oceanic carbon, the respective carbon cycle-climate feedbacks led to an even smaller efficiency than indicated by tracing the injected CO2. The ocean also unexpectedly took up carbon after the injection at 1500 m was stopped because of a deep convection event in the Southern Ocean. These findings highlighted that the accounting of CO2 injection would be challenging.

Nursing theory and concept development: a theoretical model of clinical nurses' intentions to stay in their current positions.

PubMed

Cowden, Tracy L; Cummings, Greta G

2012-07-01

We describe a theoretical model of staff nurses' intentions to stay in their current positions. The global nursing shortage and high nursing turnover rate demand evidence-based retention strategies. Inconsistent study outcomes indicate a need for testable theoretical models of intent to stay that build on previously published models, are reflective of current empirical research and identify causal relationships between model concepts. Two systematic reviews of electronic databases of English language published articles between 1985-2011. This complex, testable model expands on previous models and includes nurses' affective and cognitive responses to work and their effects on nurses' intent to stay. The concepts of desire to stay, job satisfaction, joy at work, and moral distress are included in the model to capture the emotional response of nurses to their work environments. The influence of leadership is integrated within the model. A causal understanding of clinical nurses' intent to stay and the effects of leadership on the development of that intention will facilitate the development of effective retention strategies internationally. Testing theoretical models is necessary to confirm previous research outcomes and to identify plausible sequences of the development of behavioral intentions. Increased understanding of the causal influences on nurses' intent to stay should lead to strategies that may result in higher retention rates and numbers of nurses willing to work in the health sector. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Influence of Air Pollutant Emission Controls on the "Climate Penalty" in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, T.; Couzo, E. A.; Selin, N. E.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.

2016-12-01

Previous work has examined the so-called "climate penalty" (or benefit, where climate change leads to decreased pollutant concentrations) for the U.S. In particular, previous research has identified the role of changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and biogenic emissions, in altering concentrations of O3 and PM2.5, when emissions of air pollutant precursors are held constant. However, changes in emissions of those precursors can also affect the magnitude of climate penalty/benefit. The effect of changing air pollutant emissions on the climate penalty/benefit has not been systematically studied. Here, we estimate the U.S. climate penalty (for O3 and PM2.5) as a function of four different local (U.S.) non-GHG emissions scenarios using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model coupled to the MIT Integrated Global System Model linked to the Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Our base case scenario includes global and regional emissions for 2006. We conduct three sensitivity scenarios that adjust U.S. air pollutant precursor (non-GHG) emissions by -50%, +50%, and +100%; global emissions are kept at 2006 levels. This allows us to quantify the avoided climate penalty achieved by non-GHG emissions reductions. To capture inter-annual meteorological variability, our climate penalty calculations use 20-year averages for the present (1991-2010) and future (2091-2110) climate under a no-policy scenario. Consistent with previous work, we find a "climate penalty" for O3 and PM2.5 in U.S. by 2100 across all four scenarios. We also find a climate-related decrease in the concentration of NOx and nitrate, and an increase in black carbon, organic carbon and sulfate. Changes in ammonium are spatially inhomogeneous, with an increase in eastern U.S. and a decrease in middle and western U.S. When air pollutant precursor emissions increase, we find that the O3 "climate penalty" is enhanced. However, the response of the PM2.5 "climate penalty" to changed emissions differs spatially among U.S. regions. It increases with U.S. non-GHG emissions in the East, but decreases with the emissions in the West. We use these results to draw conclusions about whether (and where) U.S. emissions controls could have an additional and previously unquantified benefit in reducing projected climate penalties.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-06-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

PubMed Central

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-01-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading. PMID:27272744

Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

2010-07-13

Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols in Los Angeles during CalNex 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, P. L.; Carlton, A. G.; Baker, K. R.; Ahmadov, R.; Washenfelder, R. A.; Alvarez, S.; Rappenglück, B.; Gilman, J. B.; Kuster, W. C.; de Gouw, J. A.; Zotter, P.; Prévôt, A. S. H.; Szidat, S.; Kleindienst, T. E.; Offenberg, J. H.; Jimenez, J. L.

2014-12-01

Four different parameterizations for the formation and evolution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region during the CalNex 2010 field campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model-measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model/measurement agreement for mass concentration. When comparing the three parameterizations, the Grieshop et al. (2009) parameterization more accurately reproduces both the SOA mass concentration and oxygen-to-carbon ratio inside the urban area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the parameterizations over-predict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (≈ 3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and global modeling. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are less important precursors and contribute less than 4% of the SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16-27, 35-61, and 19-35%, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71 (±3) %. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μg m-3 is also present due to the long distance transport of highly aged OA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, 1/3 of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Inhibition by ultraviolet and photosynthetically available radiation lowers model estimates of depth-integrated picophytoplankton photosynthesis: global predictions for Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus.

PubMed

Neale, Patrick J; Thomas, Brian C

2017-01-01

Phytoplankton photosynthesis is often inhibited by ultraviolet (UV) and intense photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), but the effects on ocean productivity have received little consideration aside from polar areas subject to periodic enhanced UV-B due to depletion of stratospheric ozone. A more comprehensive assessment is important for understanding the contribution of phytoplankton production to the global carbon budget, present and future. Here, we consider responses in the temperate and tropical mid-ocean regions typically dominated by picophytoplankton including the prokaryotic lineages, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus. Spectral models of photosynthetic response for each lineage were constructed using model strains cultured at different growth irradiances and temperatures. In the model, inhibition becomes more severe once exposure exceeds a threshold (E max ) related to repair capacity. Model parameters are presented for Prochlorococcus adding to those previously presented for Synechococcus. The models were applied to estimate midday, water column photosynthesis based on an atmospheric model of spectral radiation, satellite-derived spectral water transparency and temperature. Based on a global survey of inhibitory exposure severity, a full-latitude section of the mid-Pacific and near-equatorial region of the east Pacific were identified as representative regions for prediction of responses over the entire water column. Comparing predictions integrated over the water column including versus excluding inhibition, production was 7-28% lower due to inhibition depending on strain and site conditions. Inhibition was consistently greater for Prochlorococcus compared to two strains of Synechococcus. Considering only the surface mixed layer, production was inhibited 7-73%. On average, including inhibition lowered estimates of midday productivity around 20% for the modeled region of the Pacific with UV accounting for two-thirds of the reduction. In contrast, most other productivity models either ignore inhibition or only include PAR inhibition. Incorporation of E max model responses into an existing spectral model of depth-integrated, daily production will enable efficient global predictions of picophytoplankton productivity including inhibition. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Near-Global Survey of Cirrus Particle Size Using ISCCP

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Han, Qingyuan; Rossow, William B.; Chou, Joyce; Welch, Ronald M.

1996-01-01

Cirrus is the most frequently occurring and widely distributed cloud type. The average annual frequency of occurrence for cirrus is 34% and its global coverage is about 20-30% (Warren et al. 1985). It strongly influences weather and climate processes through its effects on the radiation budget of the earth and the atmosphere (Liou 1986). Microphysics of cirrus is a critical component in understanding cloud-climate radiative interactions. For example, ice water content feedback is positive from a 1-D model study. But the feedback is substantially reduced upon the inclusion of small ice crystals (Sinha and Shine 1994). Due to the complexity caused by the non-spherical shape of ice crystals in cirrus, retrievals of cirrus properties are difficult. In recent years, advances have been made both in models and in case studies (e.g., Takano and Liou 1989, Young et al. 1994), but no global scale survey has been conducted. Similar to our previous near-global survey of droplet sizes of liquid water clouds (Han et al. 1994), a survey of cirrus ice crystal sizes is conducted over both continental and oceanic areas. We describe a method for retrieving cirrus particle size information on a near-global scale 50 deg S to 50 deg N using currently available satellite data from ISCCP. To retrieve cirrus particle size, we use a radiative transfer model that includes all major absorbing gases and cloud scattering/absorption to compute synthetic radiances as a function of satellite viewing geometry. Ice crystal shapes are assumed to be hexagonal columns and plates. The model results have been validated against clear sky observations and are consistent with the observed radiance range under cloudy conditions.

SoilGrids1km — Global Soil Information Based on Automated Mapping

PubMed Central

Hengl, Tomislav; de Jesus, Jorge Mendes; MacMillan, Robert A.; Batjes, Niels H.; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.; Ribeiro, Eloi; Samuel-Rosa, Alessandro; Kempen, Bas; Leenaars, Johan G. B.; Walsh, Markus G.; Gonzalez, Maria Ruiperez

2014-01-01

Background Soils are widely recognized as a non-renewable natural resource and as biophysical carbon sinks. As such, there is a growing requirement for global soil information. Although several global soil information systems already exist, these tend to suffer from inconsistencies and limited spatial detail. Methodology/Principal Findings We present SoilGrids1km — a global 3D soil information system at 1 km resolution — containing spatial predictions for a selection of soil properties (at six standard depths): soil organic carbon (g kg−1), soil pH, sand, silt and clay fractions (%), bulk density (kg m−3), cation-exchange capacity (cmol+/kg), coarse fragments (%), soil organic carbon stock (t ha−1), depth to bedrock (cm), World Reference Base soil groups, and USDA Soil Taxonomy suborders. Our predictions are based on global spatial prediction models which we fitted, per soil variable, using a compilation of major international soil profile databases (ca. 110,000 soil profiles), and a selection of ca. 75 global environmental covariates representing soil forming factors. Results of regression modeling indicate that the most useful covariates for modeling soils at the global scale are climatic and biomass indices (based on MODIS images), lithology, and taxonomic mapping units derived from conventional soil survey (Harmonized World Soil Database). Prediction accuracies assessed using 5–fold cross-validation were between 23–51%. Conclusions/Significance SoilGrids1km provide an initial set of examples of soil spatial data for input into global models at a resolution and consistency not previously available. Some of the main limitations of the current version of SoilGrids1km are: (1) weak relationships between soil properties/classes and explanatory variables due to scale mismatches, (2) difficulty to obtain covariates that capture soil forming factors, (3) low sampling density and spatial clustering of soil profile locations. However, as the SoilGrids system is highly automated and flexible, increasingly accurate predictions can be generated as new input data become available. SoilGrids1km are available for download via http://soilgrids.org under a Creative Commons Non Commercial license. PMID:25171179

The regional and global significance of nitrogen removal in lakes and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrison, J.A.; Maranger, R.J.; Alexander, Richard B.; Giblin, A.E.; Jacinthe, P.-A.; Mayorga, Emilio; Seitzinger, S.P.; Sobota, D.J.; Wollheim, W.M.

2009-01-01

Human activities have greatly increased the transport of biologically available nitrogen (N) through watersheds to potentially sensitive coastal ecosystems. Lentic water bodies (lakes and reservoirs) have the potential to act as important sinks for this reactive N as it is transported across the landscape because they offer ideal conditions for N burial in sediments or permanent loss via denitrification. However, the patterns and controls on lentic N removal have not been explored in great detail at large regional to global scales. In this paper we describe, evaluate, and apply a new, spatially explicit, annual-scale, global model of lentic N removal called NiRReLa (Nitrogen Retention in Reservoirs and Lakes). The NiRReLa model incorporates small lakes and reservoirs than have been included in previous global analyses, and also allows for separate treatment and analysis of reservoirs and natural lakes. Model runs for the mid-1990s indicate that lentic systems are indeed important sinks for N and are conservatively estimated to remove 19.7 Tg N year-1 from watersheds globally. Small lakes (<50 km2) were critical in the analysis, retaining almost half (9.3 Tg N year -1) of the global total. In model runs, capacity of lakes and reservoirs to remove watershed N varied substantially at the half-degree scale (0-100%) both as a function of climate and the density of lentic systems. Although reservoirs occupy just 6% of the global lentic surface area, we estimate they retain ~33% of the total N removed by lentic systems, due to a combination of higher drainage ratios (catchment surface area:lake or reservoir surface area), higher apparent settling velocities for N, and greater average N loading rates in reservoirs than in lakes. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of NiRReLa suggests that, on-average, N removal within lentic systems will respond more strongly to changes in land use and N loading than to changes in climate at the global scale. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Neutron densities from a global analysis of medium-energy proton-nucleus elastic scattering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, B. C.; Kerr, L. J.; Hama, S.

2003-05-01

A new method for extracting neutron densities from intermediate-energy elastic proton-nucleus scattering observables uses a global Dirac phenomenological approach based on the relativistic impulse approximation. Datasets for 40Ca, 48Ca, and 208Pb in the energy range from 500 MeV to 1040 MeV are considered. The global fits are successful in reproducing the data and in predicting datasets not included in the analysis. Using this global approach, energy-independent neutron densities are obtained. The vector point proton density distribution ρpv is determined from the empirical charge density after unfolding the proton form factor. The other densities, ρnv, ρps, ρns, are parametrized. This work provides energy-independent values for the rms neutron radius Rn and the neutron skin thickness Sn, in contrast to the energy-dependent values obtained by previous studies. In addition, the results presented in this paper show that the expected rms neutron radius and the skin thickness for 40Ca are accurately reproduced. The values of Rn and Sn obtained from the global fits that we consider to be the most reliable are given as follows: for 40Ca, 3.314>Rn>3.310 fm and -0.063>Sn >-0.067 fm; for 48Ca, 3.459>Rn>3.413 fm and 0.102>Sn>0.056 fm; and for 208Pb, 5.550>Rn>5.522 fm and 0.111>Sn>0.083 fm. These values are in reasonable agreement with nonrelativistic Skyrme-Hartree-Fock models and with relativistic Hartree-Bogoliubov models with density-dependent meson-nucleon couplings. The results from the global fits for 48Ca and 208Pb are generally not in agreement with the usual relativistic mean-field models.

Acetylene (C2H2) and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) from IASI satellite observations: global distributions, validation, and comparison with model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duflot, V.; Wespes, C.; Clarisse, L.; Hurtmans, D.; Ngadi, Y.; Jones, N.; Paton-Walsh, C.; Hadji-Lazaro, J.; Vigouroux, C.; De Mazière, M.; Metzger, J.-M.; Mahieu, E.; Servais, C.; Hase, F.; Schneider, M.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.-F.

2015-09-01

We present global distributions of C2H2 and hydrogen cyanide (HCN) total columns derived from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) for the years 2008-2010. These distributions are obtained with a fast method allowing to retrieve C2H2 abundance globally with a 5 % precision and HCN abundance in the tropical (subtropical) belt with a 10 % (25 %) precision. IASI data are compared for validation purposes with ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer measurements at four selected stations. We show that there is an overall agreement between the ground-based and space measurements with correlation coefficients for daily mean measurements ranging from 0.28 to 0.81, depending on the site. Global C2H2 and subtropical HCN abundances retrieved from IASI spectra show the expected seasonality linked to variations in the anthropogenic emissions and seasonal biomass burning activity, as well as exceptional events, and are in good agreement with previous spaceborne studies. Total columns simulated by the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers, version 4 (MOZART-4) are compared to the ground-based FTIR measurements at the four selected stations. The model is able to capture the seasonality in the two species in most of the cases, with correlation coefficients for daily mean measurements ranging from 0.50 to 0.86, depending on the site. IASI measurements are also compared to the distributions from MOZART-4. Seasonal cycles observed from satellite data are reasonably well reproduced by the model with correlation coefficients ranging from -0.31 to 0.93 for C2H2 daily means, and from 0.09 to 0.86 for HCN daily means, depending on the considered region. However, the anthropogenic (biomass burning) emissions used in the model seem to be overestimated (underestimated), and a negative global mean bias of 1 % (16 %) of the model relative to the satellite observations was found for C2H2 (HCN).

Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge R.; Urban, Nathan M.; Hunke, Elizabeth C.; Turner, Adrian K.; Jeffery, Nicole

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. It is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Global Precipitation Responses to Land Hydrological Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, M.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2012-12-01

Several studies have established that soil moisture increases after adding a groundwater component in land surface models due to the additional supply of subsurface water. However, impacts of groundwater on the spatial-temporal variability of precipitation have received little attention. Through the coupled groundwater-land-atmosphere model (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model + Community Land Model) simulations, this study explores how groundwater representation in the model alters the precipitation spatiotemporal distributions. Results indicate that the effect of groundwater on the amount of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. Lower tropospheric water vapor increases due to the presence of groundwater in the model. The increased water vapor destabilizes the atmosphere and enhances the vertical upward velocity and precipitation in tropical convective regions. Precipitation, therefore, is inhibited in the descending branch of convection. As a result, an asymmetric dipole is produced over tropical land regions along the equator during the summer. This is analogous to the "rich-get-richer" mechanism proposed by previous studies. Moreover, groundwater also increased short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth and found to be a function of water table depth. Based on the spatial distributions of the one-month-lag autocorrelation coefficients as well as Hurst coefficients, air-land interaction can occur from short (several months) to long (several years) time scales. This study indicates the importance of land hydrological processes in the climate system and the necessity of including the subsurface processes in the global climate models.

Global evaluation of biofuel potential from microalgae

PubMed Central

Moody, Jeffrey W.; McGinty, Christopher M.; Quinn, Jason C.

2014-01-01

In the current literature, the life cycle, technoeconomic, and resource assessments of microalgae-based biofuel production systems have relied on growth models extrapolated from laboratory-scale data, leading to a large uncertainty in results. This type of simplistic growth modeling overestimates productivity potential and fails to incorporate biological effects, geographical location, or cultivation architecture. This study uses a large-scale, validated, outdoor photobioreactor microalgae growth model based on 21 reactor- and species-specific inputs to model the growth of Nannochloropsis. This model accurately accounts for biological effects such as nutrient uptake, respiration, and temperature and uses hourly historical meteorological data to determine the current global productivity potential. Global maps of the current near-term microalgae lipid and biomass productivity were generated based on the results of annual simulations at 4,388 global locations. Maximum annual average lipid yields between 24 and 27 m3·ha−1·y−1, corresponding to biomass yields of 13 to 15 g·m−2·d−1, are possible in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Saudi Arabia. The microalgae lipid productivity results of this study were integrated with geography-specific fuel consumption and land availability data to perform a scalability assessment. Results highlight the promising potential of microalgae-based biofuels compared with traditional terrestrial feedstocks. When water, nutrients, and CO2 are not limiting, many regions can potentially meet significant fractions of their transportation fuel requirements through microalgae production, without land resource restriction. Discussion focuses on sensitivity of monthly variability in lipid production compared with annual average yields, effects of temperature on productivity, and a comparison of results with previous published modeling assumptions. PMID:24912176

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Open ocean tide modelling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parke, M. E.

1978-01-01

Two trends evident in global tidal modelling since the first GEOP conference in 1972 are described. The first centers on the incorporation of terms for ocean loading and gravitational self attraction into Laplace's tidal equations. The second centers on a better understanding of the problem of near resonant modelling and the need for realistic maps of tidal elevation for use by geodesists and geophysicists. Although new models still show significant differences, especially in the South Atlantic, there are significant similarities in many of the world's oceans. This allows suggestions to be made for future locations for bottom pressure gauge measurements. Where available, estimates of M2 tidal dissipation from the new models are significantly lower than estimates from previous models.

Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mahowald, Natalie; Rothenberg, D.; Lindsay, Keith

2011-02-01

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climatemore » feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.« less

Global and system-specific resting-state fMRI fluctuations are uncorrelated: principal component analysis reveals anti-correlated networks.

PubMed

Carbonell, Felix; Bellec, Pierre; Shmuel, Amir

2011-01-01

The influence of the global average signal (GAS) on functional-magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)-based resting-state functional connectivity is a matter of ongoing debate. The global average fluctuations increase the correlation between functional systems beyond the correlation that reflects their specific functional connectivity. Hence, removal of the GAS is a common practice for facilitating the observation of network-specific functional connectivity. This strategy relies on the implicit assumption of a linear-additive model according to which global fluctuations, irrespective of their origin, and network-specific fluctuations are super-positioned. However, removal of the GAS introduces spurious negative correlations between functional systems, bringing into question the validity of previous findings of negative correlations between fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. Here we present an alternative method for estimating global fluctuations, immune to the complications associated with the GAS. Principal components analysis was applied to resting-state fMRI time-series. A global-signal effect estimator was defined as the principal component (PC) that correlated best with the GAS. The mean correlation coefficient between our proposed PC-based global effect estimator and the GAS was 0.97±0.05, demonstrating that our estimator successfully approximated the GAS. In 66 out of 68 runs, the PC that showed the highest correlation with the GAS was the first PC. Since PCs are orthogonal, our method provides an estimator of the global fluctuations, which is uncorrelated to the remaining, network-specific fluctuations. Moreover, unlike the regression of the GAS, the regression of the PC-based global effect estimator does not introduce spurious anti-correlations beyond the decrease in seed-based correlation values allowed by the assumed additive model. After regressing this PC-based estimator out of the original time-series, we observed robust anti-correlations between resting-state fluctuations in the default-mode and the task-positive networks. We conclude that resting-state global fluctuations and network-specific fluctuations are uncorrelated, supporting a Resting-State Linear-Additive Model. In addition, we conclude that the network-specific resting-state fluctuations of the default-mode and task-positive networks show artifact-free anti-correlations.

Seismic-geodynamic constraints on three-dimensional structure, vertical flow, and heat transfer in the mantle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forte, A.M.; Woodward, R.L.

1997-01-01

Joint inversions of seismic and geodynamic data are carried out in which we simultaneously constrain global-scale seismic heterogeneity in the mantle as well as the amplitude of vertical mantle flow across the 670 km seismic discontinuity. These inversions reveal the existence of a family of three-dimensional (3-D) mantle models that satisfy the data while at the same time yielding predictions of layered mantle flow. The new 3-D mantle models we obtain demonstrate that the buoyancy forces due to the undulations of the 670 km phase-change boundary strongly inhibit the vertical flow between the upper and lower mantle. The strong stabilizing effect of the 670 km topography also has an important impact on the predicted dynamic topography of the Earth's solid surface and on the surface gravity anomalies. The new 3-D models that predict strongly or partially layered mantle flow provide essentially identical fits to the global seismic data as previous models that have, until now, predicted only whole-mantle flow. The convective vertical transport of heat across the mantle predicted on the basis of the new 3-D models shows that the heat flow is a minimum at 1000 km depth. This suggests the presence at this depth of a globally defined horizon across which the pattern of lateral heterogeneity changes rapidly. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Assessing skill of a global bimonthly streamflow ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, A. I.; Peña-Arancibia, J.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

2011-12-01

Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system might be conceived of as a system that ingests skillful climate forecasts from general circulation models and propagates these through thoroughly calibrated hydrological models that are initialised using hydrometric observations. In practice, there are practical problems with each of these aspects. Instead, we analysed whether a comparatively simple hydrological model-based Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) can provide global bimonthly streamflow forecasts with some skill and if so, under what circumstances the greatest skill may be expected. The system tested produces ensemble forecasts for each of six annual bimonthly periods based on the previous 30 years of global daily gridded 1° resolution climate variables and an initialised global hydrological model. To incorporate some of the skill derived from ocean conditions, a post-EPS analog method was used to sample from the ensemble based on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index values observed prior to the forecast. Forecasts skill was assessed through a hind-casting experiment for the period 1979-2008. Potential skill was calculated with reference to a model run with the actual forcing for the forecast period (the 'perfect' model) and was compared to actual forecast skill calculated for each of the six forecast times for an average 411 Australian and 51 pan-tropical catchments. Significant potential skill in bimonthly forecasts was largely limited to northern regions during the snow melt period, seasonally wet tropical regions at the transition of wet to dry season, and the Indonesian region where rainfall is well correlated to ENSO. The actual skill was approximately 34-50% of the potential skill. We attribute this primarily to limitations in the model structure, parameterisation and global forcing data. Use of better climate forecasts and remote sensing observations of initial catchment conditions should help to increase actual skill in future. Future work also could address the potential skill gain from using weather and climate forecasts and from a calibrated and/or alternative hydrological model or model ensemble. The approach and data might be useful as a benchmark for joint seasonal forecasting experiments planned under GEWEX.

Strain-based diffusion solver for realistic representation of diffusion front in physical reactions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

When simulating fluids, such as water or fire, interacting with solids, it is a challenging problem to represent details of diffusion front in physical reaction. Previous approaches commonly use isotropic or anisotropic diffusion to model the transport of a quantity through a medium or long interface. We have identified unrealistic monotonous patterns with previous approaches and therefore, propose to extend these approaches by integrating the deformation of the material with the diffusion process. Specifically, stretching deformation represented by strain is incorporated in a divergence-constrained diffusion model. A novel diffusion model is introduced to increase the global rate at which the solid acquires relevant quantities, such as heat or saturation. This ensures that the equations describing fluid flow are linked to the change of solid geometry, and also satisfy the divergence-free condition. Experiments show that our method produces convincing results. PMID:28448591

Sensitivity of Sahelian Precipitation to Desert Dust under ENSO variability: a regional modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jordan, A.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2016-12-01

Mineral dust is estimated to comprise over half the total global aerosol burden, with a majority coming from the Sahara and Sahel region. Bounded by the Sahara Desert to the north and the Sahelian Savannah to the south, the Sahel experiences high interannual rainfall variability and a short rainy season during the boreal summer months. Observation-based data for the past three decades indicates a reduced dust emission trend, together with an increase in greening and surface roughness within the Sahel. Climate models used to study regional precipitation changes due to Saharan dust yield varied results, both in sign convention and magnitude. Inconsistency of model estimates drives future climate projections for the region that are highly varied and uncertain. We use the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model to quantify the interaction and feedback between desert dust aerosol and Sahelian precipitation. Using nested domains at fine spatial resolution we resolve changes to mesoscale atmospheric circulation patterns due to dust, for representative phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The NU-WRF regional earth system model offers both advanced land surface data and resolvable detail of the mechanisms of the impact of Saharan dust. Results are compared to our previous work assessed over the Western Sahel using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) CM2Mc global climate model, and to other previous regional climate model studies. This prompts further research to help explain the dust-precipitation relationship and recent North African dust emission trends. This presentation will offer a quantitative analysis of differences in radiation budget, energy and moisture fluxes, and atmospheric dynamics due to desert dust aerosol over the Sahel.

The identification of complete domains within protein sequences using accurate E-values for semi-global alignment

PubMed Central

Kann, Maricel G.; Sheetlin, Sergey L.; Park, Yonil; Bryant, Stephen H.; Spouge, John L.

2007-01-01

The sequencing of complete genomes has created a pressing need for automated annotation of gene function. Because domains are the basic units of protein function and evolution, a gene can be annotated from a domain database by aligning domains to the corresponding protein sequence. Ideally, complete domains are aligned to protein subsequences, in a ‘semi-global alignment’. Local alignment, which aligns pieces of domains to subsequences, is common in high-throughput annotation applications, however. It is a mature technique, with the heuristics and accurate E-values required for screening large databases and evaluating the screening results. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide an alternative theoretical framework for semi-global alignment, but their use is limited because they lack heuristic acceleration and accurate E-values. Our new tool, GLOBAL, overcomes some limitations of previous semi-global HMMs: it has accurate E-values and the possibility of the heuristic acceleration required for high-throughput applications. Moreover, according to a standard of truth based on protein structure, two semi-global HMM alignment tools (GLOBAL and HMMer) had comparable performance in identifying complete domains, but distinctly outperformed two tools based on local alignment. When searching for complete protein domains, therefore, GLOBAL avoids disadvantages commonly associated with HMMs, yet maintains their superior retrieval performance. PMID:17596268

Is the northern high latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mcguire, David; Kicklighter, David W.; Gurney, Kevin R

2011-01-01

Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations thatmore » estimate a 41 Tg C yr-1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th Century. Our results suggest that CO2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of 1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and 2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets.« less

Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayes, D.J.; McGuire, A.D.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Gurney, K.R.; Burnside, T.J.; Melillo, J.M.

2011-01-01

Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr-1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO 2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Evaluation of atmospheric aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Min

The increasing human activities have produced large amounts of air pollutants ejected into the atmosphere, in which atmospheric aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered to be especially important because of their negative impacts on human health and their impacts on global climate through either their direct radiative effect or indirect effect on land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This dissertation dedicates to quantifying and evaluating the aerosol and tropospheric ozone effects on global terrestrial ecosystem dynamics using a modeling approach. An ecosystem model, the integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (iTem), is developed to simulate biophysical and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial ecosystems. A two-broad-band atmospheric radiative transfer model together with the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measured atmospheric parameters are used to well estimate global downward solar radiation and the direct and diffuse components in comparison with observations. The atmospheric radiative transfer modeling framework were used to quantify the aerosol direct radiative effect, showing that aerosol loadings cause 18.7 and 12.8 W m -2 decrease of direct-beam Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) and Near Infrared Radiation (NIR) respectively, and 5.2 and 4.4 W m -2 increase of diffuse PAR and NIR, respectively, leading to a total 21.9 W m-2 decrease of total downward solar radiation over the global land surface during the period of 2003-2010. The results also suggested that the aerosol effect may be overwhelmed by clouds because of the stronger extinction and scattering ability of clouds. Applications of the iTem with solar radiation data and with or without considering the aerosol loadings shows that aerosol loading enhances the terrestrial productions [Gross Primary Production (GPP), Net Primary Production (NPP) and Net Ecosystem Production (NEP)] and carbon emissions through plant respiration (RA) in global terrestrial ecosystems over the period of 2003-2010. Ecosystem heterotrophic respiration (RH) was negatively affected by the aerosol loading. These results support previous conclusions of the advantage of aerosol light scattering effect on plant productions in other studies but suggest there is strong spatial variation. This study finds indirect aerosol effects on terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics through affecting plant phenology, thermal and hydrological environments. All these evidences suggested that the aerosol direct radiative effect on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics should be considered to better understand the global carbon cycle and climate change. An ozone sub-model is developed in this dissertation and fully coupled with iTem. The coupled model, named iTemO3 considers the processes of ozone stomatal deposition, plant defense to ozone influx, ozone damage and plant repairing mechanism. By using a global atmospheric chemical transport model (GACTM) estimated ground-level ozone concentration data, the model estimated global annual stomatal ozone deposition is 234.0 Tg O3 yr-1 and indicates which regions have high ozone damage risk. Different plant functional types, sunlit and shaded leaves are shown to have different responses to ozone. The model predictions suggest that ozone has caused considerable change on global terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and carbon exchanges over the study period 2004-2008. The study suggests that uncertainty of the key parameters in iTemO3 could result in large errors in model predictions. Thus more experimental data for better model parameterization is highly needed.

Multi-hierarchical movements in self-avoiding walks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakiyama, Tomoko; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio

2017-07-01

A self-avoiding walk (SAW) is a series of moves on a lattice that visit the same place only once. Several studies reported that repellent reactions of foragers to previously visited sites induced power-law tailed SAWs in animals. In this paper, we show that modelling the agent's multi-avoidance reactions to its trails enables it to show ballistic movements which result in heavy-tailed movements. There is no literature showing emergent ballistic movements in SAWs. While following SAWs, the agent in my model changed its reactions to marked patches (visited sites) by considering global trail patterns based on local trail patterns when the agent was surrounded by previously visited sites. As a result, we succeeded in producing ballistic walks by the agents which exhibited emergent power-law tailed movements.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis of the Los Alamos sea ice model

DOE PAGES

Urrego-Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark; Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; ...

2016-04-01

Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual modelmore » parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.« less

Navy High-Strength Steel Corrosion-Fatigue Modeling Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

interest. In the global analysis, the axial loading and residual stress (via the temperature profile discussed in the previous section) were applied to...developed based on observa- tions from analyses of axial load components with sinusoidally varying surface geometries. These observations indicated that...profile parameters (height and wavelength in each surface direction) and the applied axial loading . Stress Varies Sinusoidally 180° Out of Phase

Mission Completed? Changing Visibility of Women's Colleges in England and Japan and Their Roles in Promoting Gender Equality in Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kodate, Naonori; Kodate, Kashiko; Kodate, Takako

2010-01-01

The global community, from UNESCO to NGOs, is committed to promoting the status of women in science, engineering and technology, despite long-held prejudices and the lack of role models. Previously, when equality was not firmly established as a key issue on international or national agendas, women's colleges played a great role in mentoring female…

Global and regional emissions estimates for N2O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikawa, E.; Prinn, R. G.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ishijima, K.; Dutton, G. S.; Hall, B. D.; Langenfelds, R.; Tohjima, Y.; Machida, T.; Manizza, M.; Rigby, M.; O'Doherty, S.; Patra, P. K.; Harth, C. M.; Weiss, R. F.; Krummel, P. B.; van der Schoot, M.; Fraser, P. J.; Steele, L. P.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Elkins, J. W.

2014-05-01

We present a comprehensive estimate of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions using observations and models from 1995 to 2008. High-frequency records of tropospheric N2O are available from measurements at Cape Grim, Tasmania; Cape Matatula, American Samoa; Ragged Point, Barbados; Mace Head, Ireland; and at Trinidad Head, California using the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) instrumentation and calibrations. The Global Monitoring Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL) has also collected discrete air samples in flasks and in situ measurements from remote sites across the globe and analyzed them for a suite of species including N2O. In addition to these major networks, we include in situ and aircraft measurements from the National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES) and flask measurements from the Tohoku University and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) networks. All measurements show increasing atmospheric mole fractions of N2O, with a varying growth rate of 0.1-0.7% per year, resulting in a 7.4% increase in the background atmospheric mole fraction between 1979 and 2011. Using existing emission inventories as well as bottom-up process modeling results, we first create globally gridded a priori N2O emissions over the 37 years since 1975. We then use the three-dimensional chemical transport model, Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART v4), and a Bayesian inverse method to estimate global as well as regional annual emissions for five source sectors from 13 regions in the world. This is the first time that all of these measurements from multiple networks have been combined to determine emissions. Our inversion indicates that global and regional N2O emissions have an increasing trend between 1995 and 2008. Despite large uncertainties, a significant increase is seen from the Asian agricultural sector in recent years, most likely due to an increase in the use of nitrogenous fertilizers, as has been suggested by previous studies.

GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molod, Andrea; Akella, Santha; Andrews, Lauren; Barahona, Donifan; Borovikov, Anna; Chang, Yehui; Cullather, Richard; Hackert, Eric; Kovach, Robin; Koster, Randal;

Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

ScienceCinema

Wang, Jian [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

2017-12-09

In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ºF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of “global warming,” which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

Climatic Effects of Regional Nuclear War

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oman, Luke D.

2011-01-01

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes seem to be more persistent because of improvements in representing aerosol processes and microphysical/dynamical interactions, including radiative heating effects, in newer global climate system models. The assumptions and calculations that go into these conclusions will be described.

The engram formation and the global oscillations of CA3.

PubMed

Ventriglia, Francesco

2008-12-01

The investigation on the conditions which cause global population oscillatory activities in neural fields, originated some years ago with reference to a kinetic theory of neural systems, as been further deepened in this paper. In particular, the genesis of sharp waves and of some rhythmic activities, such as theta and gamma rhythms, of the hippocampal CA3 field, behaviorally important for their links to learning and memory, has been analyzed with more details. To this aim, the modeling-computational framework previously devised for the study of activities in large neural fields, has been enhanced in such a way that a greater number of biological features, extended dendritic trees-in particular, could be taken into account. By using that methodology, a two-dimensional model of the entire CA3 field has been described and its activity, as it results from the several external inputs impinging on it, has been simulated. As a consequence of these investigations, some hypotheses have been elaborated about the possible function of global oscillatory activities of neural populations of Hippocampus in the engram formation.

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

Crustal tracers in the atmosphere and ocean: Relating their concentrations, fluxes, and ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Qin

Crustal tracers are important sources of key limiting nutrients (e.g., iron) in remote ocean regions where they have a large impact on global biogeochemical cycles. However, the atmospheric delivery of bio-available iron to oceans via mineral dust aerosol deposition is poorly constrained. This dissertation aims to improve understanding and model representation of oceanic dust deposition and to provide soluble iron flux maps by testing observations of crustal tracer concentrations and solubilities against predictions from two conceptual solubility models. First, we assemble a database of ocean surface dissolved Al and incorporate Al cycling into the global Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (BEC) model. The observed Al concentrations show clear basin-scale differences that are useful for constraining dust deposition. The dynamic mixed layer depth and Al residence time in the BEC model significantly improve the simulated dissolved Al field. Some of the remaining model-data discrepancies appear related to the neglect of aerosol size, age, and air mass characteristics in estimating tracer solubility. Next, we develop the Mass-Age Tracking method (MAT) to efficiently and accurately estimate the mass-weighted age of tracers. We apply MAT to four sizes of desert dust aerosol and simulate, for the first time, global distributions of aerosol age in the atmosphere and at deposition. These dust size and age distributions at deposition, together with independent information on air mass acidity, allow us to test two simple yet plausible models for predicting the dissolution of mineral dust iron and aluminum during atmospheric transport. These models represent aerosol solubility as controlled (1) by a diffusive process leaching nutrients from the dust into equilibrium with the liquid water coating or (2) by a process that continually dissolves nutrients in proportion to the particle surface area. The surface-controlled model better captures the spatial pattern of observed solubility in the Atlantic. Neither model improves previous estimates of the solubility in the Pacific, nor do they significantly improve the global BEC simulation of dissolved iron or aluminum.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

PubMed Central

Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.

2016-01-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm. PMID:27545899

Meteorological analysis of symptom data for people with seasonal affective disorder.

PubMed

Sarran, Christophe; Albers, Casper; Sachon, Patrick; Meesters, Ybe

2017-11-01

It is thought that variation in natural light levels affect people with Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD). Several meteorological factors related to luminance can be forecast but little is known about which factors are most indicative of worsening SAD symptoms. The aim of this meteorological analysis is to determine which factors are linked to SAD symptoms. The symptoms of 291 individuals with SAD in and near Groningen have been evaluated over the period 2003-2009. Meteorological factors linked to periods of low natural light (sunshine, global radiation, horizontal visibility, cloud cover and mist) and others (temperature, humidity and pressure) were obtained from weather observation stations. A Bayesian zero adjusted auto-correlated multilevel Poisson model was carried out to assess which variables influence the SAD symptom score BDI-II. The outcome of the study suggests that the variable sunshine duration, for both the current and previous week, and global radiation for the previous week, are significantly linked to SAD symptoms. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes.

PubMed

Lin, Y-C; Oey, L-Y

2016-08-22

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.-C.; Oey, L.-Y.

2016-08-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Rainfall-enhanced blooming in typhoon wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Y.; Oey, L. Y.

2016-12-01

Strong phytoplankton blooming in tropical-cyclone (TC) wakes over the oligotrophic oceans potentially contributes to long-term changes in global biogeochemical cycles. Yet blooming has traditionally been discussed using anecdotal events and its biophysical mechanics remain poorly understood. Here we identify dominant blooming patterns using 16 years of ocean-color data in the wakes of 141 typhoons in western North Pacific. We observe right-side asymmetric blooming shortly after the storms, attributed previously to sub-mesoscale re-stratification, but thereafter a left-side asymmetry which coincides with the left-side preference in rainfall due to the large-scale wind shear. Biophysical model experiments and observations demonstrate that heavier rainfall freshens the near-surface water, leading to stronger stratification, decreased turbulence and enhanced blooming. Our results suggest that rainfall plays a previously unrecognized, critical role in TC-induced blooming, with potentially important implications for global biogeochemical cycles especially in view of the recent and projected increases in TC-intensity that harbingers stronger mixing and heavier rain under the storm.

Kawase & McDermott revisited with a proper ocean model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jochum, Markus; Poulsen, Mads; Nuterman, Roman

2017-04-01

A suite of experiments with global ocean models is used to test the hypothesis that Southern Ocean (SO) winds can modify the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It is found that for 3 and 1 degree resolution models the results are consistent with Toggweiler & Samuels (1995): stronger SO winds lead to a slight increase of the AMOC. In the simulations with 1/10 degree resolution, however, stronger SO winds weaken the AMOC. We show that these different outcomes are determined by the models' representation of topographic Rossby and Kelvin waves. Consistent with previous literature based on theory and idealized models, first baroclinic waves are slower in the coarse resolution models, but still manage to establish a pattern of global response that is similar to the one in the eddy-permitting model. Because of its different stratification, however, the Atlantic signal is transmitted by higher baroclinic modes. In the coarse resolution model these higher modes are dissipated before they reach 30N, whereas in the eddy-permitting model they reach the subpolar gyre undiminished. This inability of non-eddy-permitting ocean models to represent planetary waves with higher baroclinic modes casts doubt on the ability of climate models to represent non-local effects of climate change. Ideas on how to overcome these difficulties will be discussed.

A New Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreemer, C. W.; Klein, E. C.; Blewitt, G.; Shen, Z.; Wang, M.; Chamot-Rooke, N. R.; Rabaute, A.

2012-12-01

As part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort to improve global seismic hazard models, we present a new global geodetic strain rate model. This model (GSRM v. 2) is a vast improvement on the previous model from 2004 (v. 1.2). The model is still based on a finite-element type approach and has deforming cells in between the assumed rigid plates. While v.1.2 contained ~25,000 deforming cells of 0.6° by 0.5° dimension, the new models contains >136,000 cells of 0.25° by 0.2° dimension. We redefined the geometries of the deforming zones based on the definitions of Bird (2003) and Chamot-Rooke and Rabaute (2006). We made some adjustments to the grid geometry at places where seismicity and/or GPS velocities suggested the presence of deforming areas where those previous studies did not. As a result, some plates/blocks identified by Bird (2003) we assumed to deform, and the total number of plates and blocks in GSRM v.2 is 38 (including the Bering block, which Bird (2003) did not consider). GSRM v.1.2 was based on ~5,200 GPS velocities, taken from 86 studies. The new model is based on ~17,000 GPS velocities, taken from 170 studies. The GPS velocity field consists of a 1) ~4900 velocities derived by us for CPS stations publicly available RINEX data and >3.5 years of data, 2) ~1200 velocities for China from a new analysis of all CMONOC data, and 3) velocities published in the literature or made otherwise available to us. All studies were combined into the same reference frame by a 6-parameter transformation using velocities at collocated stations. Because the goal of the project is to model the interseismic strain rate field, we model co-seismic jumps while estimating velocities, ignore periods of post-seismic deformation, and exclude time-series that reflect magmatic and anthropogenic activity. GPS velocities were used to estimate angular velocities for most of the 38 rigid plates and blocks (the rest being taken from the literature), and these were used as boundary conditions for the strain rate calculations. For the strain rate calculations we used the method of Haines and Holt. In order to equally fit the data in slowly and rapidly deforming areas, we first calculated a very smooth model by setting the a priori variances of the strain rate components very low. We then used this model as a proxy for the a priori standard deviations of the final model. To add some more constraints to the model (to make it more stable), we manipulated the a priori covariance matrix to reflect the expected style of deformation derived from (an interpolation of) shallow earthquake focal mechanisms. We will show examples of the strain rate and velocity field results. We will also highlight how and where the results can be viewed and accessed through a dedicated webportal.

The Jormungand Global Climate State and Implications for the Neoproterozoic Snowball Paradox (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbot, D. S.; Voigt, A.; Koll, D.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.

2010-12-01

We present a previously undescribed global climate state, the Jormungand state, that is nearly ice-covered with a narrow (~10-15 degrees of latitude) strip of open ocean near the equator. This state is sustained by internal dynamics of the hydrological cycle and the cryosphere. There is a new bifurcation in global climate climate associated with the Jormungand state that leads to significant hysteresis. We investigate the Jormungand state in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, in multiple atmospheric GCMs coupled to a mixed layer ocean run in an idealized configuration, and we make a simple modification to the Budyko-Sellers model so that it produces Jormungand states. We suggest that the Jormungand state may be a better model for the Neoproterozoic glaciations (~635 Ma and ~715 Ma) than either the hard Snowball or the Slushball models. A Jormungand state would have a large enough region of open ocean near the equator to explain the micropaleontological and molecular clock evidence that photosynthetic eukaryotes thrived both before and immediately after the Neoproterozoic episodes. Additionally, since there is significant hysteresis associated with the Jormungand state, it can explain the cap carbonate sequences, the oxygen isotopic evidence that suggests high CO2 values, and the various evidence that suggests lifetimes for the glaciations of 1 Myrs or more. Since there is not significant hysteresis associated with the Slushball model, the Slushball model cannot explain these observations. Finally, we note that although the Slushball and Jormungand models share the characteristic of open ocean in the tropics, the Jormungand state is produced by entirely different physics, is entered through a new bifurcation in global climate, and is associated with significant hysteresis. Bifurcation diagram of global climate in the CAM global climate model, run with no continents, a 50 m mixed layer with no ocean heat transport, an eccentricity of zero, and annually and diurnally-varying insolation with a solar constant of 94% of present value. Red diamonds denote simulations initiated from ice-free conditions, blue circles denote simulations initiated from the Jormungand state, and green squares denote simulations initiated from the Snowball state. The black curve shows model equilibria, with dotted unstable solution branches (separatrices) and bifurcations drawn schematically.

Probabilistic models for neural populations that naturally capture global coupling and criticality

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Advances in multi-unit recordings pave the way for statistical modeling of activity patterns in large neural populations. Recent studies have shown that the summed activity of all neurons strongly shapes the population response. A separate recent finding has been that neural populations also exhibit criticality, an anomalously large dynamic range for the probabilities of different population activity patterns. Motivated by these two observations, we introduce a class of probabilistic models which takes into account the prior knowledge that the neural population could be globally coupled and close to critical. These models consist of an energy function which parametrizes interactions between small groups of neurons, and an arbitrary positive, strictly increasing, and twice differentiable function which maps the energy of a population pattern to its probability. We show that: 1) augmenting a pairwise Ising model with a nonlinearity yields an accurate description of the activity of retinal ganglion cells which outperforms previous models based on the summed activity of neurons; 2) prior knowledge that the population is critical translates to prior expectations about the shape of the nonlinearity; 3) the nonlinearity admits an interpretation in terms of a continuous latent variable globally coupling the system whose distribution we can infer from data. Our method is independent of the underlying system’s state space; hence, it can be applied to other systems such as natural scenes or amino acid sequences of proteins which are also known to exhibit criticality. PMID:28926564

The influence of pre-existing rib fractures on Global Human Body Models Consortium thorax response in frontal and oblique impact.

PubMed

Zaseck, Lauren Wood; Chen, Cong; Hu, Jingwen; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan

2018-03-01

Many post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) considered for use in biomechanical impact tests have pre-existing rib fractures (PERFs), usually resulting from cardiopulmonary resuscitation. These specimens are typically excluded from impact studies with the assumption that the fractures will alter the thoracic response to loading. We previously used the Global Human Body Models Consortium 50th percentile whole-body finite element model (GHBMC M50-O) to demonstrate that up to three lateral or bilateral PERFs do not meaningfully influence the response of the GHBMC thorax to lateral loading. This current study used the GHBMC M50-O to explore the influence of PERFs on thorax response in frontal and oblique loading. Up to six PERFs were simulated on the anterior or lateral rib regions, and the model was subjected to frontal or oblique cylindrical impactor, frontal seatbelt, or frontal seatbelt + airbag loading. Changes in thorax force-compression responses due to PERFs were generally minor, with the greatest alterations seen in models with six PERFs on one side of the ribcage. The observed changes, however, were small relative to mid-size male corridors for the loading conditions simulated. PERFs altered rib strain patterns, but the changes did not translate to changes in global thoracic response. Within the limits of model fidelity, the results suggest that PMHS with up to six PERFs may be appropriate for use in frontal or oblique impact testing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sindelarova, K.; Granier, Claire; Bouarar, I.

The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic VOCs available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980 - 2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg(C) yr1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2 %. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different modelmore » input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of * 17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene in ventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene and*-pinene showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements in the Amazon andthe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of emissions in this region.« less

Mars Digital Image Model 2.1 Control Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Archinal, B. A.; Kirk, R. L.; Duxbury, T. C.; Lee, E. M.; Sucharski, R.; Cook, D.

2003-01-01

USGS is currently preparing a new version of its global Mars digital image mosaic, which will be known as MDIM 2.1. As part of this process we are completing a new photogrammetric solution of the global Mars control network. This is an improved version of the network established earlier by RAND and USGS personnel, as partially described previously. MDIM 2.1 will have many improvements over earlier Viking Orbiter (VO) global mosaics. Geometrically, it will be an orthoimage product, draped on Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) derived topography, thus accounting properly for the commonly oblique VO imagery. Through the network being described here it will be tied to the newly defined IAU/IAG 2000 Mars coordinate system via ties to MOLA data. Thus, MDIM 2.1 will provide complete global orthorectified imagery coverage of Mars at the resolution of 1/256 deg of MDIM 2.0, and be compatible with MOLA and other products produced in the current coordinate system.

Subnetworks of percolation backbones to model karst systems around Tulum, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrick, Martin; Renard, Philippe

2016-11-01

Karstic caves, which play a key role in groundwater transport, are often organized as complex connected networks resulting from the dissolution of carbonate rocks. In this work, we propose a new model to describe and study the structures of the two largest submersed karst networks in the world. Both of these networks are located in the area of Tulum (Quintana Roo, Mexico). In a previous work te{hendrick2016fractal} we showed that these networks behave as self-similar structures exhibiting well-defined scaling behaviours. In this paper, we suggest that these networks can be modeled using substructures of percolation clusters (θ-subnetworks) having similar structural behaviour (in terms of fractal dimension and conductivity exponent) to those observed in Tulum's karst networks. We show in addition that these θ-subnetworks correspond to structures that minimise a global function, where this global function includes energy dissipation by the viscous forces when water flows through the network, and the cost of network formation itself.

Plasmapause Location: Model Compared to Van Allen Probes Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, J.; Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.; Funsten, H. O.; Jaynes, A. N.; Malaspina, D.; Reeves, G. D.; Spence, H. E.; Thaller, S. A.; Wygant, J. R.

2017-12-01

We study the evolution of the plasmapause for a multi-year period (January 2013 to January 2017) spanning much of the Van Allen Probes mission, by comparing the output of a plasmapause test particle simulation with the spacecraft potential measured by the Electric Field and Waves (EFW) suite. Consistent with previous results, we quantify the accuracy of the model by measuring the radial difference between real and virtual satellite encounters with the plasmapause boundary. We find that model performance is better on the nightside and during active periods, and worse on the duskside/dayside and during extended quiet intervals. For two case studies, we compare the plasmapause with the locations of relativistic electron flux peaks. For global context we use the test particle plasmaspheric index Fp [Goldstein et al., 2016], the fraction of a circular drift orbit inside the plasmapause, as a proxy for the globally integrated opportunity for losses in cold plasma. We find an inverse relationship between relativistic flux and the Fp index, consistent with increased likelihood of losses in cold plasma.

3D Visualization of Global Ocean Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, V. G.; Sharma, R.; Zhang, E.; Schmittner, A.; Jenny, B.

2015-12-01

Advanced 3D visualization techniques are seldom used to explore the dynamic behavior of ocean circulation. Streamlines are an effective method for visualization of flow, and they can be designed to clearly show the dynamic behavior of a fluidic system. We employ vector field editing and extraction software to examine the topology of velocity vector fields generated by a 3D global circulation model coupled to a one-layer atmosphere model simulating preindustrial and last glacial maximum (LGM) conditions. This results in a streamline-based visualization along multiple density isosurfaces on which we visualize points of vertical exchange and the distribution of properties such as temperature and biogeochemical tracers. Previous work involving this model examined the change in the energetics driving overturning circulation and mixing between simulations of LGM and preindustrial conditions. This visualization elucidates the relationship between locations of vertical exchange and mixing, as well as demonstrates the effects of circulation and mixing on the distribution of tracers such as carbon isotopes.

Global asymptotic stability of plant-seed bank models.

PubMed

Eager, Eric Alan; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

2014-07-01

Many plant populations have persistent seed banks, which consist of viable seeds that remain dormant in the soil for many years. Seed banks are important for plant population dynamics because they buffer against environmental perturbations and reduce the probability of extinction. Viability of the seeds in the seed bank can depend on the seed's age, hence it is important to keep track of the age distribution of seeds in the seed bank. In this paper we construct a general density-dependent plant-seed bank model where the seed bank is age-structured. We consider density dependence in both seedling establishment and seed production, since previous work has highlighted that overcrowding can suppress both of these processes. Under certain assumptions on the density dependence, we prove that there is a globally stable equilibrium population vector which is independent of the initial state. We derive an analytical formula for the equilibrium population using methods from feedback control theory. We apply these results to a model for the plant species Cirsium palustre and its seed bank.

Multiple measures of dispositional global/local bias predict attentional blink magnitude.

PubMed

Dale, Gillian; Arnell, Karen M

2015-07-01

When the second of two targets (T2) is presented temporally close to the first target (T1) in a rapid serial visual presentation stream, accuracy to identify T2 is markedly reduced-an attentional blink (AB). While most individuals show an AB, Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) demonstrated that individual differences in dispositional attentional focus predicted AB performance, such that individuals who showed a natural bias toward the global level of Navon letter stimuli were less susceptible to the AB and showed a smaller AB effect. For the current study, we extended the findings of Dale and Arnell (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):602-606, 2010) through two experiments. In Experiment 1, we examined the relationship between dispositional global/local bias and the AB using a highly reliable hierarchical shape task measure. In Experiment 2, we examined whether three distinct global/local measures could predict AB performance. In both experiments, performance on the global/local tasks predicted subsequent AB performance, such that individuals with a greater preference for the global information showed a reduced AB. This supports previous findings, as well as recent models which discuss the role of attentional breadth in selective attention.

A Study of Global Health Elective Outcomes

PubMed Central

Russ, Christiana M.; Tran, Tony; Silverman, Melanie; Palfrey, Judith

2017-01-01

Background and Objectives: To identify the effects of global health electives over a decade in a pediatric residency program. Methods: This was an anonymous email survey of the Boston Combined Residency alumni funded for global health electives from 2002 to 2011. A test for trend in binomial proportions and logistic regression were used to document associations between elective and participant characteristics and the effects of the electives. Qualitative data were also analyzed. Results: Of the 104 alumni with available email addresses, 69 (66%) responded, describing 94 electives. Elective products included 27 curricula developed, 11 conference presentations, and 7 academic publications. Thirty-two (46%) alumni continued global health work. Previous experience, previous travel to the site, number of global electives, and cumulative global elective time were associated with postresidency work in global health or with the underserved. Conclusions: Resident global electives resulted in significant scholarship and teaching and contributed to long-term career trajectories. PMID:28229096

Novel applications of the temporal kernel method: Historical and future radiative forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Portmann, R. W.; Larson, E.; Solomon, S.; Murphy, D. M.

2017-12-01

We present a new estimate of the historical radiative forcing derived from the observed global mean surface temperature and a model derived kernel function. Current estimates of historical radiative forcing are usually derived from climate models. Despite large variability in these models, the multi-model mean tends to do a reasonable job of representing the Earth system and climate. One method of diagnosing the transient radiative forcing in these models requires model output of top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and global mean temperature anomaly. It is difficult to apply this method to historical observations due to the lack of TOA radiative measurements before CERES. We apply the temporal kernel method (TKM) of calculating radiative forcing to the historical global mean temperature anomaly. This novel approach is compared against the current regression based methods using model outputs and shown to produce consistent forcing estimates giving confidence in the forcing derived from the historical temperature record. The derived TKM radiative forcing provides an estimate of the forcing time series that the average climate model needs to produce the observed temperature record. This forcing time series is found to be in good overall agreement with previous estimates but includes significant differences that will be discussed. The historical anthropogenic aerosol forcing is estimated as a residual from the TKM and found to be consistent with earlier moderate forcing estimates. In addition, this method is applied to future temperature projections to estimate the radiative forcing required to achieve those temperature goals, such as those set in the Paris agreement.

Detailed assessment of global transport-energy models’ structures and projections

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeh, Sonia; Mishra, Gouri Shankar; Fulton, Lew

This paper focuses on comparing the frameworks and projections from four major global transportation models with considerable transportation technology and behavioral detail. We analyze and compare the modeling frameworks, underlying data, assumptions, intermediate parameters, and projections to identify the sources of divergence or consistency, as well as key knowledge gaps. We find that there are significant differences in the base-year data and key parameters for future projections, especially for developing countries. These include passenger and freight activity, mode shares, vehicle ownership rates, and even energy consumption by mode, particularly for shipping, aviation and trucking. This may be due in partmore » to a lack of previous efforts to do such consistency-checking and “bench-marking.” We find that the four models differ in terms of the relative roles of various mitigation strategies to achieve a 2°C / 450 ppm CO2e target: the economics-based integrated assessment models favor the use of low carbon fuels as the primary mitigation option followed by efficiency improvements, whereas transport-only and expert-based models favor efficiency improvements of vehicles followed by mode shifts. We offer recommendations for future modeling improvements focusing on (1) reducing data gaps; (2) translating the findings from this study into relevant policy implications such as feasibility of current policy goals, additional policy targets needed, regional vs. global reductions, etc.; (3) modeling strata of demographic groups to improve understanding of vehicle ownership levels, travel behavior, and urban vs. rural considerations; and (4) conducting coordinated efforts in aligning input assumptions and historical data, policy analysis, and modeling insights.« less

Amundsen Sea simulation with optimized ocean, sea ice, and thermodynamic ice shelf model parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, Y.; Menemenlis, D.; Schodlok, M.; Heimbach, P.; Nguyen, A. T.; Rignot, E. J.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves and glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are thinning and melting rapidly in the Amundsen Sea (AS). This is thought to be caused by warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) that intrudes via submarine glacial troughs located at the continental shelf break. Recent studies, however, point out that the depth of thermocline, or thickness of Winter Water (WW, potential temperature below -1 °C located above CDW) is critical in determining the melt rate, especially for the Pine Island Glacier (PIG). For example, the basal melt rate of PIG, which decreased by 50% during summer 2012, has been attributed to thickening of WW. Despite the possible importance of WW thickness on ice shelf melting, previous modeling studies in this region have focused primarily on CDW intrusion and have evaluated numerical simulations based on bottom or deep CDW properties. As a result, none of these models have shown a good representation of WW for the AS. In this study, we adjust a small number of model parameters in a regional Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to better fit the available observations during the 2007-2010 period. We choose this time period because summer observations during these years show small interannual variability in the eastern AS. As a result of adjustments, our model shows significantly better match with observations than previous modeling studies, especially for WW. Since density of sea water depends largely on salinity at low temperature, this is crucial for assessing the impact of WW on PIG melt rate. In addition, we conduct several sensitivity studies, showing the impact of surface heat loss on the thickness and properties of WW. We also discuss some preliminary results pertaining to further optimization using the adjoint method. Our work is a first step toward improved representation of ice-shelf ocean interactions in the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) global ocean retrospective analysis. Moreover, the resolution of our regional domain ( 10 km horizontal grid spacing) is comparable to that of current-generation IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) global climate models and hence is expected to lead to better representation of these processes in IPCC-class global climate models.

Attentional selection of relative SF mediates global versus local processing: evidence from EEG.

PubMed

Flevaris, Anastasia V; Bentin, Shlomo; Robertson, Lynn C

2011-06-13

Previous research on functional hemispheric differences in visual processing has associated global perception with low spatial frequency (LSF) processing biases of the right hemisphere (RH) and local perception with high spatial frequency (HSF) processing biases of the left hemisphere (LH). The Double Filtering by Frequency (DFF) theory expanded this hypothesis by proposing that visual attention selects and is directed to relatively LSFs by the RH and relatively HSFs by the LH, suggesting a direct causal relationship between SF selection and global versus local perception. We tested this idea in the current experiment by comparing activity in the EEG recorded at posterior right and posterior left hemisphere sites while participants' attention was directed to global or local levels of processing after selection of relatively LSFs versus HSFs in a previous stimulus. Hemispheric asymmetry in the alpha band (8-12 Hz) during preparation for global versus local processing was modulated by the selected SF. In contrast, preparatory activity associated with selection of SF was not modulated by the previously attended level (global/local). These results support the DFF theory that top-down attentional selection of SF mediates global and local processing.

Coupling of a 3D Finite Element Model of Cardiac Ventricular Mechanics to Lumped Systems Models of the Systemic and Pulmonic Circulation

PubMed Central

Kerckhoffs, Roy C. P.; Neal, Maxwell L.; Gu, Quan; Bassingthwaighte, James B.; Omens, Jeff H.; McCulloch, Andrew D.

2010-01-01

In this study we present a novel, robust method to couple finite element (FE) models of cardiac mechanics to systems models of the circulation (CIRC), independent of cardiac phase. For each time step through a cardiac cycle, left and right ventricular pressures were calculated using ventricular compliances from the FE and CIRC models. These pressures served as boundary conditions in the FE and CIRC models. In succeeding steps, pressures were updated to minimize cavity volume error (FE minus CIRC volume) using Newton iterations. Coupling was achieved when a predefined criterion for the volume error was satisfied. Initial conditions for the multi-scale model were obtained by replacing the FE model with a varying elastance model, which takes into account direct ventricular interactions. Applying the coupling, a novel multi-scale model of the canine cardiovascular system was developed. Global hemodynamics and regional mechanics were calculated for multiple beats in two separate simulations with a left ventricular ischemic region and pulmonary artery constriction, respectively. After the interventions, global hemodynamics changed due to direct and indirect ventricular interactions, in agreement with previously published experimental results. The coupling method allows for simulations of multiple cardiac cycles for normal and pathophysiology, encompassing levels from cell to system. PMID:17111210

CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.

2008-02-01

Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing.

Benthic δ13C stacks: Metrics for deglacial changes in deep ocean carbon storage and the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, C.; Lisiecki, L. E.

2016-12-01

Across the deglaciation, atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures rise while the deep ocean ventilates carbon to the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere. As the terrestrial biosphere expands, the mean global ocean δ13C signature increases in response. How well constrained is the global mean benthic δ13C from 20-6 ka? Are the atmosphere and terrestrial biosphere signals in benthic δ13C coupled across the deglaciation? Improved understanding of deglacial carbon cycle interactions can help close the gap between data-based and model-based estimates of global mean benthic δ13C and deep ocean carbon storage changes. Here we present a 118-record compilation of Cibicides wuellerstorfi δ13C time series that span 20-6 kyr. The δ13C records with a resolution better than 3 kyr and gaps between data smaller than 4 kyr are aligned to age models that are constrained by planktic 14C ages (Stern and Lisiecki, 2014). The δ13C records are stacked within nine regions. Then these regional stacks are combined using volume-weighted averages to create intermediate, deep and whole ocean δ13C stacks. The δ13C gradient between the intermediate and deep stacks covaries with atmospheric CO2 change. Meanwhile the deglacial global ocean mean δ13C rise tracks the expansion of the global terrestrial biosphere from 19-6 ka. From this volume-weighted global δ13C stack, the LGM-Holocene mean δ13C change is 0.35±0.10‰ similar to previous estimates (Curry et al., 1988; Duplessy et al., 1988; Peterson et al., 2015; Gebbie et al., 2015). The δ13C stacks and this 4D δ13C compilation are ideal for model-data comparisons and time-stepping 3D visualizations.

Direct Measurements of the Convective Recycling of the Upper Troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bertram, Timothy H.; Perring, Anne E.; Wooldridge, Paul J.; Crounse, John D.; Kwan, Alan J.; Wennberg, Paul O.; Scheuer, Eric; Dibb, Jack; Avery, Melody; Sachse, Glen;

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Sørgârd, Eirik; Behrens, Hanna Lee; Brett, Per Olaf; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

2007-06-01

Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO2 and SO2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO2 emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg (CO2), growing to about 634 Tg (CO2) in 2002. The corresponding SO2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO2) and 8.5 Tg (SO2), respectively. Our activity-based estimates of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an important part of the total fuel consumption (˜10%).

Further Studies on Oceanic Biogeochemistry and Carbon Cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Signorini, S. R.; McClain, C. R.

2003-01-01

This TM consists of two chapters. Chapter I describes the development of a coupled, one-dimensional biogeochemical model using turbulence closure mixed layer (TCMLM) dynamics. The model is applied to the Sargasso Sea at the BATS (Bermuda Atlantic Time Series) site and the results are compared with a previous model study in the same region described in NASNTP-2001-209991. The use of the TCMLM contributed to some improvements in the model simulation of chlorophyll, PAR, nitrate, phosphate, and oxygen, but most importantly, the current model achieved good agreement with the data with much more realistic background eddy diffusivity. However, off-line calculations of horizontal transport of biogeochemical properties revealed that one-dimensional dynamics can only provide a limited assessment of the nutrient and carbon balances at BATS. Future studies in the BATS region will require comprehensive three-dimensional field studies, combined with three-dimensional eddy resolving numerical experiments, to adequately quantify the impact of the local and remote forcing on ecosystem dynamics and carbon cycling. Chapter II addresses the sensitivity of global sea-air CO, flux estimates to wind speed, temperature, and salinity. Sensitivity analyses of sea-air CO, flux to wind speed climatologies, gas transfer algorithms, SSS and SST were conducted for the global oceans and regional domains. Large uncertainties in the global sea-air flux are identified, primarily due to the different gas transfer algorithms used. The sensitivity of the sea-air flux to SST and SSS is similar in magnitude to the effect of using different wind climatologies. Globally, the mean ocean uptake of CO, changes by 5 to 16%, depending upon the combination of SST and SSS used.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Present and Future Projections of Habitat Suitability of the Asian Tiger Mosquito, a Vector of Viral Pathogens, from Global Climate Simulations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Proestos, Y.; Christophides, G.; Erguler, K.; Tanarhte, M.; Waldock, J.; Lelieveld, J.

2014-12-01

Climate change can influence the transmission of vector borne diseases (VBDs) through altering the habitat suitability of insect vectors. Here we present global climate model simulations and evaluate the associated uncertainties in view of the main meteorological factors that may affect the distribution of the Asian Tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), which can transmit pathogens that cause Chikungunya, Dengue fever, yellow fever and various encephalitides. Using a general circulation model (GCM) at 50 km horizontal resolution to simulate mosquito survival variables including temperature, precipitation and relative humidity, we present both global and regional projections of the habitat suitability up to the middle of the 21st century. The model resolution of 50 km allows evaluation against previous projections for Europe and provides a basis for comparative analyses with other regions. Model uncertainties and performance are addressed in light of the recent CMIP5 ensemble climate model simulations for the RCP8.5 concentration pathway and using meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim/ECMWF) for the recent past. Uncertainty ranges associated with the thresholds of meteorological variables that may affect the distribution of Ae. albopictus are diagnosed using fuzzy-logic methodology, notably to assess the influence of selected meteorological criteria and combinations of criteria that influence mosquito habitat suitability. From the climate projections for 2050, and adopting a habitat suitability index larger than 70%, we estimate that about 2.4 billion individuals in a land area of nearly 20 million square kilometres will potentially be exposed to Ae. albopictus. The synthesis of fuzzy-logic based on mosquito biology and climate change analysis provides new insights into the regional and global spreading of VBDs to support disease control and policy making.

Influence of isoprene chemical mechanism on modelled changes in tropospheric ozone due to climate and land use over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squire, O. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Griffiths, P. T.; Jenkin, M. E.; Pyle, J. A.

2014-09-01

Isoprene is a precursor to tropospheric ozone, a key pollutant and greenhouse gas. Anthropogenic activity over the coming century is likely to cause large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels, climate and land use, all of which will alter the global vegetation distribution leading to changes in isoprene emissions. Previous studies have used global chemistry-climate models to assess how possible changes in climate and land use could affect isoprene emissions and hence tropospheric ozone. The chemistry of isoprene oxidation, which can alter the concentration of ozone, is highly complex, therefore it must be parameterised in these models. In this work we compare the effect of four different reduced isoprene chemical mechanisms, all currently used in Earth-system models, on tropospheric ozone. Using a box model we compare ozone in these reduced schemes to that in a more explicit scheme (the MCM) over a range of NOx and isoprene emissions, through the use of O3 isopleths. We find that there is some variability, especially at high isoprene emissions, caused by differences in isoprene-derived NOx reservoir species. A global model is then used to examine how the different reduced schemes respond to potential future changes in climate, isoprene emissions, anthropogenic emissions and land use change. We find that, particularly in isoprene rich regions, the response of the schemes varies considerably. The wide ranging response is due to differences in the types of peroxy radicals produced by isoprene oxidation, and their relative rates of reaction towards NO, leading to ozone formation, or HO2, leading to termination. Also important is the yield of isoprene-nitrates and peroxyacyl nitrate precursors from isoprene oxidation. Those schemes that produce less of these NOx reservoir species, tend to produce more ozone locally and less away from the source region. Additionally, by combining the emissions and O3 data from all of the global model integrations, we are able to construct isopleth plots comparable to those from the box model analysis. We find that the global and box model isopleths show good qualitative agreement, suggesting that comparing chemical mechanisms with a box model in this framework is a useful tool for assessing mechanistic performance in complex global models. We conclude that as the choice of reduced isoprene mechanism may alter both the magnitude and sign of the ozone response, how isoprene chemistry is parameterised in perturbation experiments such as these is a crucially important consideration. More measurements are needed to validate these reduced mechanisms especially in high-VOC, low-NOx environments.

Global rates of mantle serpentinization and H2 release at oceanic transform faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruepke, Lars; Hasenclever, Joerg

2017-04-01

The cycling of seawater through the ocean floor is the dominant mechanism of biogeochemical exchange between the solid earth and the global ocean. Crustal fluid flow appears to be typically associated with major seafloor structures, and oceanic transform faults (OTF) are one of the most striking yet poorly understood features of the global mid-ocean ridge systems. Fracture zones and transform faults have long been hypothesized to be sites of substantial biogeochemical exchange between the solid Earth and the global ocean. This is particularly interesting with regard to the ocean biome. Deep ocean ecosystems constitute 60% of it but their role in global ocean biogeochemical cycles is much overlooked. There is growing evidence that life is supported by chemosynthesis at hydrothermal vents but also in the crust, and therefore this may be a more abundant process than previously thought. In this context, the serpentine forming interaction between seawater and cold lithospheric mantle rocks is particularly interesting as it is also a mechanism of abiotic hydrogen and methane formation. Interestingly, a quantitative global assessment of mantle serpentinization at oceanic transform faults in the context of the biogeochemical exchange between the seafloor and the global ocean is still largely missing. Here we present the results of a set of 3-D thermo-mechanical model calculations that investigate mantle serpentinization at OTFs for the entire range of globally observed slip rates and fault lengths. These visco-plastic models predict the OTF thermal structure and the location of crustal-scale brittle deformation, which is a prerequisite for mantle serpentinization to occur. The results of these simulations are integrated with information on the global distribution of OTF lengths and slip rates yielding global estimates on mantle serpentinization and associated H2 release. We find that OTFs are potentially sites of intense crustal fluid flow and are in terms of H2 release almost as important as MOR-related serpentinization.

GLEAM v3: updated land evaporation and root-zone soil moisture datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martens, Brecht; Miralles, Diego; Lievens, Hans; van der Schalie, Robin; de Jeu, Richard; Fernández-Prieto, Diego; Verhoest, Niko

2016-04-01

Evaporation determines the availability of surface water resources and the requirements for irrigation. In addition, through its impacts on the water, carbon and energy budgets, evaporation influences the occurrence of rainfall and the dynamics of air temperature. Therefore, reliable estimates of this flux at regional to global scales are of major importance for water management and meteorological forecasting of extreme events. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to the limited global coverage of in situ measurements. Remote sensing techniques can help to overcome the lack of ground data. However, evaporation is not directly observable from satellite systems. As a result, recent efforts have focussed on combining the observable drivers of evaporation within process-based models. The Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM, www.gleam.eu) estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological drivers of terrestrial evaporation, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the model in 2011, GLEAM has been widely applied for the study of trends in the water cycle, interactions between land and atmosphere and hydrometeorological extreme events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets will be available from the beginning of 2016 and will be distributed using www.gleam.eu as gateway. The updated datasets include separate estimates for the different components of the evaporative flux (i.e. transpiration, bare-soil evaporation, interception loss, open-water evaporation and snow sublimation), as well as variables like the evaporative stress, potential evaporation, root-zone soil moisture and surface soil moisture. A new dataset using SMOS-based input data of surface soil moisture and vegetation optical depth will also be distributed. The most important updates in GLEAM include the revision of the soil moisture data assimilation system, the evaporative stress functions and the infiltration of rainfall. In this presentation, we will highlight the changes of the methodology and present the new datasets, their validation against in situ observations and the comparisons against alternative datasets of terrestrial evaporation, such as GLDAS-Noah, ERA-Interim and previous GLEAM datasets. Preliminary results indicate that the magnitude and the spatio-temporal variability of the evaporation estimates have been slightly improved upon previous versions of the datasets.

Parametric uncertainties in global model simulations of black carbon column mass concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearce, Hana; Lee, Lindsay; Reddington, Carly; Carslaw, Ken; Mann, Graham

2016-04-01

Previous studies have deduced that the annual mean direct radiative forcing from black carbon (BC) aerosol may regionally be up to 5 W m-2 larger than expected due to underestimation of global atmospheric BC absorption in models. We have identified the magnitude and important sources of parametric uncertainty in simulations of BC column mass concentration from a global aerosol microphysics model (GLOMAP-Mode). A variance-based uncertainty analysis of 28 parameters has been performed, based on statistical emulators trained on model output from GLOMAP-Mode. This is the largest number of uncertain model parameters to be considered in a BC uncertainty analysis to date and covers primary aerosol emissions, microphysical processes and structural parameters related to the aerosol size distribution. We will present several recommendations for further research to improve the fidelity of simulated BC. In brief, we find that the standard deviation around the simulated mean annual BC column mass concentration varies globally between 2.5 x 10-9 g cm-2 in remote marine regions and 1.25 x 10-6 g cm-2 near emission sources due to parameter uncertainty Between 60 and 90% of the variance over source regions is due to uncertainty associated with primary BC emission fluxes, including biomass burning, fossil fuel and biofuel emissions. While the contributions to BC column uncertainty from microphysical processes, for example those related to dry and wet deposition, are increased over remote regions, we find that emissions still make an important contribution in these areas. It is likely, however, that the importance of structural model error, i.e. differences between models, is greater than parametric uncertainty. We have extended our analysis to emulate vertical BC profiles at several locations in the mid-Pacific Ocean and identify the parameters contributing to uncertainty in the vertical distribution of black carbon at these locations. We will present preliminary comparisons of emulated BC vertical profiles from the AeroCom multi-model ensemble and Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) observations.

Plate tectonic controls on atmospheric CO2 levels since the Triassic.

PubMed

Van Der Meer, Douwe G; Zeebe, Richard E; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J J; Sluijs, Appy; Spakman, Wim; Torsvik, Trond H

2014-03-25

Climate trends on timescales of 10s to 100s of millions of years are controlled by changes in solar luminosity, continent distribution, and atmosphere composition. Plate tectonics affect geography, but also atmosphere composition through volcanic degassing of CO2 at subduction zones and midocean ridges. So far, such degassing estimates were based on reconstructions of ocean floor production for the last 150 My and indirectly, through sea level inversion before 150 My. Here we quantitatively estimate CO2 degassing by reconstructing lithosphere subduction evolution, using recent advances in combining global plate reconstructions and present-day structure of the mantle. First, we estimate that since the Triassic (250-200 My) until the present, the total paleosubduction-zone length reached up to ∼200% of the present-day value. Comparing our subduction-zone lengths with previously reconstructed ocean-crust production rates over the past 140 My suggests average global subduction rates have been constant, ∼6 cm/y: Higher ocean-crust production is associated with longer total subduction length. We compute a strontium isotope record based on subduction-zone length, which agrees well with geological records supporting the validity of our approach: The total subduction-zone length is proportional to the summed arc and ridge volcanic CO2 production and thereby to global volcanic degassing at plate boundaries. We therefore use our degassing curve as input for the GEOCARBSULF model to estimate atmospheric CO2 levels since the Triassic. Our calculated CO2 levels for the mid Mesozoic differ from previous modeling results and are more consistent with available proxy data.

Plate tectonic controls on atmospheric CO2 levels since the Triassic

PubMed Central

Van Der Meer, Douwe G.; Zeebe, Richard E.; van Hinsbergen, Douwe J. J.; Sluijs, Appy; Spakman, Wim; Torsvik, Trond H.

2014-01-01

Climate trends on timescales of 10s to 100s of millions of years are controlled by changes in solar luminosity, continent distribution, and atmosphere composition. Plate tectonics affect geography, but also atmosphere composition through volcanic degassing of CO2 at subduction zones and midocean ridges. So far, such degassing estimates were based on reconstructions of ocean floor production for the last 150 My and indirectly, through sea level inversion before 150 My. Here we quantitatively estimate CO2 degassing by reconstructing lithosphere subduction evolution, using recent advances in combining global plate reconstructions and present-day structure of the mantle. First, we estimate that since the Triassic (250–200 My) until the present, the total paleosubduction-zone length reached up to ∼200% of the present-day value. Comparing our subduction-zone lengths with previously reconstructed ocean-crust production rates over the past 140 My suggests average global subduction rates have been constant, ∼6 cm/y: Higher ocean-crust production is associated with longer total subduction length. We compute a strontium isotope record based on subduction-zone length, which agrees well with geological records supporting the validity of our approach: The total subduction-zone length is proportional to the summed arc and ridge volcanic CO2 production and thereby to global volcanic degassing at plate boundaries. We therefore use our degassing curve as input for the GEOCARBSULF model to estimate atmospheric CO2 levels since the Triassic. Our calculated CO2 levels for the mid Mesozoic differ from previous modeling results and are more consistent with available proxy data. PMID:24616495

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

Mesoscopic Effects in an Agent-Based Bargaining Model in Regular Lattices

PubMed Central

Poza, David J.; Santos, José I.; Galán, José M.; López-Paredes, Adolfo

2011-01-01

The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young [1] modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders. PMID:21408019

Mesoscopic effects in an agent-based bargaining model in regular lattices.

PubMed

Poza, David J; Santos, José I; Galán, José M; López-Paredes, Adolfo

2011-03-09

The effect of spatial structure has been proved very relevant in repeated games. In this work we propose an agent based model where a fixed finite population of tagged agents play iteratively the Nash demand game in a regular lattice. The model extends the multiagent bargaining model by Axtell, Epstein and Young modifying the assumption of global interaction. Each agent is endowed with a memory and plays the best reply against the opponent's most frequent demand. We focus our analysis on the transient dynamics of the system, studying by computer simulation the set of states in which the system spends a considerable fraction of the time. The results show that all the possible persistent regimes in the global interaction model can also be observed in this spatial version. We also find that the mesoscopic properties of the interaction networks that the spatial distribution induces in the model have a significant impact on the diffusion of strategies, and can lead to new persistent regimes different from those found in previous research. In particular, community structure in the intratype interaction networks may cause that communities reach different persistent regimes as a consequence of the hindering diffusion effect of fluctuating agents at their borders.

GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO new high resolution Seasonal Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molod, A.; Vikhliaev, Y. V.; Hackert, E. C.; Kovach, R. M.; Zhao, B.; Cullather, R. I.; Marshak, J.; Borovikov, A.; Li, Z.; Barahona, D.; Andrews, L. C.; Chang, Y.; Schubert, S. D.; Koster, R. D.; Suarez, M.; Akella, S.

2017-12-01

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce subseasonalto seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA/Goddard GlobalModeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a subtantially improvedmodel description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilationsystem has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter.Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will alsopresent results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and resultsfrom a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts.Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperaturesover much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in bothhemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, andthe only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work.

Parasitic worms: how many really?

PubMed

Strona, Giovanni; Fattorini, Simone

2014-04-01

Accumulation curves are useful tools to estimate species diversity. Here we argue that they can also be used in the study of global parasite species richness. Although this basic idea is not completely new, our approach differs from the previous ones as it treats each host species as an independent sample. We show that randomly resampling host-parasite records from the existing databases makes it possible to empirically model the relationship between the number of investigated host species, and the corresponding number of parasite species retrieved from those hosts. This method was tested on 21 inclusive lists of parasitic worms occurring on vertebrate hosts. All of the obtained models conform well to a power law curve. These curves were then used to estimate global parasite species richness. Results obtained with the new method suggest that current predictions are likely to severely overestimate parasite diversity. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Studies in the use of cloud type statistics in mission simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowler, M. G.; Willand, J. H.; Chang, D. T.; Cogan, J. L.

1974-01-01

A study to further improve NASA's global cloud statistics for mission simulation is reported. Regional homogeneity in cloud types was examined; most of the original region boundaries defined for cloud cover amount in previous studies were supported by the statistics on cloud types and the number of cloud layers. Conditionality in cloud statistics was also examined with special emphasis on temporal and spatial dependencies, and cloud type interdependence. Temporal conditionality was found up to 12 hours, and spatial conditionality up to 200 miles; the diurnal cycle in convective cloudiness was clearly evident. As expected, the joint occurrence of different cloud types reflected the dynamic processes which form the clouds. Other phases of the study improved the cloud type statistics for several region and proposed a mission simulation scheme combining the 4-dimensional atmospheric model, sponsored by MSFC, with the global cloud model.

The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

PubMed

Mogo, César; Brandão, João

2014-06-30

READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Computing approximate solutions of the protein structure determination problem using global constraints on discrete crystal lattices.

PubMed

Dal Palù, Alessandro; Dovier, Agostino; Pontelli, Enrico

2010-01-01

Crystal lattices are discrete models of the three-dimensional space that have been effectively employed to facilitate the task of determining proteins' natural conformation. This paper investigates alternative global constraints that can be introduced in a constraint solver over discrete crystal lattices. The objective is to enhance the efficiency of lattice solvers in dealing with the construction of approximate solutions of the protein structure determination problem. Some of them (e.g., self-avoiding-walk) have been explicitly or implicitly already used in previous approaches, while others (e.g., the density constraint) are new. The intrinsic complexities of all of them are studied and preliminary experimental results are discussed.

The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Downing, J.A.; Prairie, Y.T.; Cole, J.J.; Duarte, C.M.; Tranvik, L.J.; Striegl, Robert G.; McDowell, W.H.; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Caraco, N.F.; Melack, J.M.; Middelburg, J.J.

2006-01-01

One of the major impediments to the integration of lentic ecosystems into global environmental analyses has been fragmentary data on the extent and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. We use new data sources, enhanced spatial resolution, and new analytical approaches to provide new estimates of the global abundance of surface-water bodies. A global model based on the Pareto distribution shows that the global extent of natural lakes is twice as large as previously known (304 million lakes; 4.2 million km 2 in area) and is dominated in area by millions of water bodies smaller than 1 km2. Similar analyses of impoundments based on inventories of large, engineered dams show that impounded waters cover approximately 0.26 million km2. However, construction of low-tech farm impoundments is estimated to be between 0.1 % and 6% of farm area worldwide, dependent upon precipitation, and represents >77,000 km 2 globally, at present. Overall, about 4.6 million km2 of the earth's continental "land" surface (>3%) is covered by water. These analyses underscore the importance of explicitly considering lakes, ponds, and impoundments, especially small ones, in global analyses of rates and processes. ?? 2006, by the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography, Inc.

Developing a Toolkit for Model Evaluation Using Speleothem Isotope Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comas-Bru, L.; Deininger, M.; Harrison, S.

2017-12-01

Speleothems can provide high-resolution records of changes in both climate and atmospheric composition. These records have the potential to be used to document regional changes in mean climate and climate variability on annual to centennial timescales. They can also be used to refine our understanding of regional changes in climate forcings, such as dust and volcanic aerosols, through time. Many climate models now explicitly include isotopic tracers, and thus the isotopic records from speleothems can be used for model evaluation. Previous attempts to compile speleothem data have not provided a globally-comprehensive synthesis, nor have they provided assessments of measurement, chronological or interpretation uncertainties. SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis) is a new community-based working groupsponsored by Past Global Changes (PAGES) to synthesise the 500+speleothem isotopic records available globallyand develop a public-accessdatabase, that can be used both to explore past climate changes and in model evaluation. This presentation will showcase preliminary syntheses for the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka), the mid-Holocene (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE).

Reforestation in a high-CO2 world -- Higher mitigation potential than expected, lower adaptation potential than hoped for

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonntag, Sebastian; Pongratz, Julia; Reick, Christian H.; Schmidt, Hauke

2016-06-01

We assess the potential and possible consequences for the global climate of a strong reforestation scenario for this century. We perform model experiments using the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), forced by fossil-fuel CO2 emissions according to the high-emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but using land use transitions according to RCP4.5, which assumes strong reforestation. Thereby, we isolate the land use change effects of the RCPs from those of other anthropogenic forcings. We find that by 2100 atmospheric CO2 is reduced by 85 ppm in the reforestation model experiment compared to the reference RCP8.5 model experiment. This reduction is higher than previous estimates and is due to increased forest cover in combination with climate and CO2 feedbacks. We find that reforestation leads to global annual mean temperatures being lower by 0.27 K in 2100. We find large annual mean warming reductions in sparsely populated areas, whereas reductions in temperature extremes are also large in densely populated areas.

A New Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreemer, C.; Blewitt, G.; Klein, E. C.; Shen, Z.; Wang, M.; Estey, L.; Wier, S.

2013-12-01

As part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort to improve global seismic hazard models, we present a new global geodetic strain rate model. This model (GSRM v. 2) is a vast improvement on the previous model from 2004 (v. 1.2). The model is still based on a finite-element type approach and has deforming cells in between the assumed rigid plates. The new model contains ~144,700 cells of 0.25° by 0.2° dimension. We redefined the geometries of the deforming zones based on the definitions of Bird (2003) and Chamot-Rooke and Rabaute (2006). We made some adjustments to the grid geometry at places where seismicity and/or GPS velocities suggested either the presence of deforming areas or a rigid block where those previous studies did not. GSRM v.2 includes 50 plates and blocks, including many not considered by Bird (2003). The new GSRM model is based on over 20,700 horizontal geodetic velocities at over 17,000 unique locations. The GPS velocity field consists of a 1) Over 6500 velocities derived by the University of Nevada, Reno, for CGPS stations for which >2.5 years of RINEX data are available until April 2013, 2) ~1200 velocities for China from a new analysis of all data from the Crustal Movement Network of China (CMONOC), and 3) about 13,000 velocities from 212 studies published in the literature or made otherwise available to us. Velocities from all studies were combined into the same reference frame by a 6-parameter transformation using velocities at collocated stations. We model co-seismic jumps while estimating velocities, ignore periods of post-seismic deformation, and exclude time-series that reflect magmatic and anthropogenic activity. GPS velocities were used to estimate angular velocities for 36 of the 50 rigid plates and blocks (the rest being taken from the literature), and these were used as boundary conditions in the strain rate calculations. For the strain rate calculations we used the method of Haines and Holt. In order to fit the data equally well in slowly and rapidly deforming areas, we first calculated a very smooth model by setting the a priori variances of the strain rate components very low. We then used this model as a proxy for the a priori standard deviations of the final model, at least for the areas that are well constrained by the GPS data. We will show examples of the strain rate and velocity field results. We will also highlight how and where the results can be viewed and accessed through a dedicated webportal (gsrm2.unavco.org). New GPS velocities (in any reference frame) can be uploaded to a new tool and displayed together with velocities used in GSRM v.2 in 53 reference frames (http://facility.unavco.org/data/maps/GPSVelocityViewer/GSRMViewer.html) .

A revised model of fluid transport optimization in Physarum polycephalum.

PubMed

Bonifaci, Vincenzo

2017-02-01

Optimization of fluid transport in the slime mold Physarum polycephalum has been the subject of several modeling efforts in recent literature. Existing models assume that the tube adaptation mechanism in P. polycephalum's tubular network is controlled by the sheer amount of fluid flow through the tubes. We put forward the hypothesis that the controlling variable may instead be the flow's pressure gradient along the tube. We carry out the stability analysis of such a revised mathematical model for a parallel-edge network, proving that the revised model supports the global flow-optimizing behavior of the slime mold for a substantially wider class of response functions compared to previous models. Simulations also suggest that the same conclusion may be valid for arbitrary network topologies.

Transfer of laparoscopic radical prostatectomy skills from bench model to animal model: a prospective, single-blind, randomized, controlled study.

PubMed

Sabbagh, Robert; Chatterjee, Suman; Chawla, Arun; Hoogenes, Jen; Kapoor, Anil; Matsumoto, Edward D

2012-05-01

Learning laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis is a crucial step in laparoscopic radical prostatectomy. Previously we noted that practice on a low fidelity urethrovesical model was more effective for trainees than basic suturing drills on a foam pad when learning laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis skills. We evaluated learner transfer of skills, specifically whether skills learned on the urethrovesical model would transfer to a high fidelity, live animal model. A total of 28 senior residents, fellows and staff surgeons in urology, general surgery and gynecology were randomized to 2 hours of laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis training on a urethrovesical model (group 1) or to basic laparoscopic suturing and knot tying on foam pads (group 2). All participants then performed timed laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis on anesthetized female pigs. A blinded urologist scored subject videotaped performance using checklist, global rating scale and end product rating scores. Group 1 was significantly more adept than group 2 at the laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis pig task when measured by the checklist, global rating scale and end product rating (each p <0.05). Time to completion was similar in the 2 groups. No statistically significant difference was noted in global rating scale and checklist scores for laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis performed on the urethrovesical model vs the pig. Training on a urethrovesical model is superior to training with basic laparoscopic suturing on a foam pad for performing laparoscopic urethrovesical anastomosis skills on an anesthetized female pig. Skills learned on a urethrovesical model transfer to a high fidelity, live animal model. Copyright © 2012 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhancing Polyhedral Relaxations for Global Optimization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bao, Xiaowei

2009-01-01

During the last decade, global optimization has attracted a lot of attention due to the increased practical need for obtaining global solutions and the success in solving many global optimization problems that were previously considered intractable. In general, the central question of global optimization is to find an optimal solution to a given…

Development of the Non-Hydrostatic Jupiter Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (J-GITM): Status and Current Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bougher, Stephen; Ridley, Aaron; Majeed, Tariq; Waite, J. Hunter; Gladstone, Randy; Bell, Jared

2016-07-01

The primary objectives for development and validation of a new 3-D non-hydrostatic model of Jupiter's upper atmosphere is to improve our understanding of Jupiter's thermosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere system and to provide a global context within which to analyze the data retrieved from the new JUNO mission. The new J-GITM model presently incorporates the progress made on the previous Jupiter-TGCM code (i.e. key parameterizations, ion-neutral chemistry, IR cooling) while also employing the non-hydrostatic numerical core of the Earth Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM). The GITM numerical framework has been successfully applied to Earth, Mars, and Titan (see Ridley et al. [2006], Bougher et al. [2015], Bell [2008, 2010]). Moreover, it has been shown to simulate the effects of strong, localized heat sources (such as joule heating and auroral heating) more accurately than strictly hydrostatic GCMs (Deng et al. [2007, 2008]). Thus far, in the J-GITM model development and testing, model capability has been progressively augmented to capture the neutral composition (e.g. H, H2, He major species), 3-component neutral winds, and thermal structure, as well as the ion composition (H3+, H2+, and H+ among others) above 250 km. Presently, J-GITM: (a) provides an interactive calculation for auroral particle precipitation (i.e. heating, ionization), an improvement over the static formulation used previously in the J-TGCM (Bougher et al., 2005; Majeed et al., 2005, 2009, 2015); (b) self-consistently calculates an ionosphere using updated ion-neutral chemistry, ion dynamics, and electron transport; (c) simulates the chemistry that forms key hydrocarbons at the base of the thermosphere, focusing on CH4, C2H2, and C2H6; (d) allows the production of H3+, CH4, C2H2, and C2H6 to modify the global thermal balance of Jupiter through their non-LTE radiative cooling; (e) provides a calculation of H2 vibrational chemistry to regulate H+ densities; and (f) uses the improved ionosphere to provide more realistic Pederson and Hall conductivities (i.e. which will eventually be combined with updated representations of the convection electric field to drive the high-latitude ion dynamics). Thus far, Joule heating has not yet been implemented and turned on in the J-GITM framework. However, a small set of J-GITM simulations has been conducted in order to perform J-GITM versus J-TGCM benchmark comparisons making use of auroral forcing only. A summary of these simulation results will be presented.

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Agenda, extended abstracts, and bibliographies for a workshop on Deposit modeling, mineral resources assessment, and their role in sustainable development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briskey, Joseph A.; Schulz, Klaus J.

2002-01-01

Global demand for mineral resources continues to increase because of increasing global population and the desire and efforts to improve living standards worldwide. The ability to meet this growing demand for minerals is affected by the concerns about possible environmental degradation associated with minerals production and by competing land uses. Informed planning and decisions concerning sustainability and resource development require a long-term perspective and an integrated approach to land-use, resource, and environmental management worldwide. This, in turn, requires unbiased information on the global distribution of identified and especially undiscovered resources, the economic and political factors influencing their development, and the potential environmental consequences of their exploitation. The purpose of the IGC workshop is to review the state-of-the-art in mineral-deposit modeling and quantitative resource assessment and to examine their role in the sustainability of mineral use. The workshop will address such questions as: Which of the available mineral-deposit models and assessment methods are best suited for predicting the locations, deposit types, and amounts of undiscovered nonfuel mineral resources remaining in the world? What is the availability of global geologic, mineral deposit, and mineral-exploration information? How can mineral-resource assessments be used to address economic and environmental issues? Presentations will include overviews of assessment methods used in previous national and other small-scale assessments of large regions as well as resulting assessment products and their uses.

The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.; Eby, Michael

2016-09-01

Concrete actions to curtail greenhouse gas emissions have so far been limited on a global scale, and therefore the ultimate magnitude of climate change in the absence of further mitigation is an important consideration for climate policy. Estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are highly uncertain, and the amount used under a business-as-usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions. In the absence of global mitigation actions, five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions. An approximately linear relationship between global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions is known to hold up to 2 EgC emissions on decadal to centennial timescales; however, in some simple climate models the predicted warming at higher cumulative emissions is less than that predicted by such a linear relationship. Here, using simulations from four comprehensive Earth system models, we demonstrate that CO2-attributable warming continues to increase approximately linearly up to 5 EgC emissions. These models simulate, in response to 5 EgC of CO2 emissions, global mean warming of 6.4-9.5 °C, mean Arctic warming of 14.7-19.5 °C, and mean regional precipitation increases by more than a factor of four. These results indicate that the unregulated exploitation of the fossil fuel resource could ultimately result in considerably more profound climate changes than previously suggested.

Synchronization as Aggregation: Cluster Kinetics of Pulse-Coupled Oscillators.

PubMed

O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Krapivsky, P L; Strogatz, Steven H

2015-08-07

We consider models of identical pulse-coupled oscillators with global interactions. Previous work showed that under certain conditions such systems always end up in sync, but did not quantify how small clusters of synchronized oscillators progressively coalesce into larger ones. Using tools from the study of aggregation phenomena, we obtain exact results for the time-dependent distribution of cluster sizes as the system evolves from disorder to synchrony.

The 4D-var Estimation of North Korean Rocket Exhaust Emissions Into the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ssessanga, Nicholas; Kim, Yong Ha; Choi, Byungyu; Chung, Jong-Kyun

2018-03-01

We have developed a four-dimensional variation data assimilation technique (4D-var) and utilized it to reconstruct three-dimensional images of the ionospheric hole created during Kwangmyongsong-4 rocket launch. Kwangmyongsong-4 was launched southward from North Korea Sohae space center (124.7°E, 39.6°N) at 00:30 UT on 7 February 2016. The data assimilated were Global Positioning System total electron content from the South Korean Global Positioning System-receiver network. Due to lack of publicized information about Kwangmyongsong-4, the rocket was assumed to inherit its technology from previous launches (Taepodong-2). The created ionospheric hole was assumed to be made by neutral molecules, water (H2O) and hydrogen (H2), deposited in exhaust plumes. The dispersion model was developed based on advection and diffusion equation, and a simple asymmetric diffusion model assumed. From the analysis, using the adjoint technique, we estimated an ionospheric hole with the largest depletion existing around 6-7 min after launch and gradually recovering within 30 min. These results are in agreement with temporal total electron content analyses of the same event from previous studies. Furthermore, Kwangmyongsong-4 second stage exhaust emissions were estimated as 1.9 × 1026 s-1 of which 40% was H2 and the rest H2O.

Global transformation and fate of SOA: Implications of Low Volatility SOA and Gas-Phase Fragmentation Reactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.; Easter, Richard C.; Liu, Xiaohong

2015-05-16

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are large contributors to fine particle loadings and radiative forcing, but are often represented crudely in global models. We have implemented three new detailed SOA treatments within the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) that allow us to compare the semi-volatile versus non-volatile SOA treatments (based on some of the latest experimental findings) and also investigate the effects of gas-phase fragmentation reactions. For semi-volatile SOA treatments, fragmentation reactions decrease simulated SOA burden from 7.5 Tg to 1.8 Tg. For the non-volatile SOA treatment with fragmentation, the burden is 3.1 Tg. Larger differences between non-volatile and semi-volatilemore » SOA (upto a factor of 5) correspond to continental outflow over the oceans. Compared to a global dataset of surface Aerosol Mass Spectrometer measurements and the US IMPROVE network measurements, the non-volatile SOA with fragmentation treatment (FragNVSOA) agrees best at rural locations. Urban SOA is under-predicted but this may be due to the coarse model resolution. All our three revised treatments show much better agreement with aircraft measurements of organic aerosols (OA) over the N. American Arctic and sub-Arctic in spring and summer, compared to the standard CAM5 formulation. This is due to treating SOA precursor gases from biomass burning, and long-range transport of biomass burning OA at elevated levels. The revised model configuration that include fragmentation (both semi-volatile and non-volatile SOA) show much better agreement with MODIS AOD data over regions dominated by biomass burning during the summer, and predict biomass burning as the largest global source of OA followed by biogenic and anthropogenic sources. The non-volatile and semi-volatile configuration predict the direct radiative forcing of SOA as -0.5 W m-2 and -0.26 W m-2 respectively, at top of the atmosphere, which are higher than previously estimated by most models, but in reasonable agreement with a recent constrained modeling study. This study highlights the importance of improving process-level representation of SOA in global models.« less

A framework for process-based assessment of regional climate model experiments: applied to projections of southern African precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Jones, Richard

2015-04-01

There is a demand from adaptation planners for regional climate change projections, particularly the finer resolution data delivered by regional models. However, climate models are subject to important uncertainties, and their projections diverge substantially, particularly for precipitation. So how should decision makers know which futures to consider and which to disregard? Model evaluation is clearly a priority. The majority of studies seeking to assess the validity of projections are based on comparison of the models' twentieth century climatologies with observations or reanalysis. Whilst this work is very important, examination of the modelled mean state it is not sufficient to assess the credibility of modelled changes. Direct investigation of the mechanisms for change is also vital. In this study, a framework for process-based analysis of projections is presented, whereby circulation changes accompanying future responses are examined, and then compared to atmospheric dynamics during historical years in models and reanalyses. This framework has previously been applied to investigate a drying signal in West Africa, and will here be used to examine projected precipitation change in southern Africa. An ensemble of five global and regional model experiments will be employed, consisting of five perturbed versions of HadCM3 and five corresponding runs of HadRM3P (PRECIS), run over the CORDEX Africa domain. The global and regional model runs show contrasting future responses: there is a strong drying in the global models over southern Africa during the rainy season, but the regional models show drying over Madagascar and the south west Indian Ocean. Circulation changes associated with these projections will be presented as a first step towards understanding the mechanisms for change and the reasons for difference between the global and regional models. The interannual variability will also be examined and compared to reanalysis to explore how well the models represent the dipole between southern Africa and Madagascar in the twentieth century simulations. This analysis could shed light on the credibility of the projected changes, and the relative trustworthiness of the global and regional models. This research makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of mechanisms for change in southern Africa. It also has wider relevance for regional climate model studies, in highlighting the need to evaluate models on a case by case basis, and providing a framework for assessment which could be applied to other models and other regions.

Domain size sensitivities of landfalling eastern Pacific atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClenny, E. E.; Ullrich, P. A.; Grotjahn, R.; Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) concentrate a majority of mid-latitude latent heat transport into narrow bands. ARs making landfall along the North American coast typically originate in the waters surrounding Hawaii. We explore here the effects of explicitly simulating this "genesis region" on AR characteristics. We do this using two models and three domains centered on the North American coast. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, forced by National Center for Environmental Prediction Final Reanalysis data, provides a representative regional model. The simulation domains include: 1. Just off the coastline (100-130W), 2. The coastline to the Pacific just east of Hawaii (100-155W), and 3. The coastline to the Pacific west of Hawaii (100-180W). The Variable Resolution Community Earth System Model simulates ARs while preserving global interactions. In this global model, "domain" refers to the mesh refinement region, each of which corresponds to one of the three previously described WRF domains. We compare ARs from the wet season (October-April) for water years 2009-2017 in the test models against those found in the Modern Era Retrospective Reanalysis 2 (MERRA2). We objectively detect events with the global AR detection algorithm introduced in Guan and Waliser (2015). Comparisons between all model configurations and the reference MERRA2 data will be assessed by characteristics including landfall location (meridional distributions, including quartile ranges and standard deviations of landfalls across the coast), as well as vapor flux and precipitation (in terms of both the contribution of ARs to the larger regional climatology and any differences in the intensity of individual AR events across runs).

Global Modeling of Spur Formation in Spiral Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shetty, Rahul; Ostriker, Eve C.

2006-08-01

We investigate the formation of substructure in spiral galaxies using global MHD simulations, including gas self-gravity. Local modeling by Kim & Ostriker previously showed that self-gravity and magnetic fields cause rapid growth of overdensities in spiral arms; differential compression of gas flowing through the arms then results in the formation of sheared structures in the interarms. These sheared structures resemble features described as spurs or feathers in optical and IR observations of many spiral galaxies. Global modeling extends previous local models by including the full effects of curvilinear coordinates, a realistic log-spiral perturbation, self-gravitational contribution from five radial wavelengths of the spiral shock, and variation of density and epicyclic frequency with radius. We show that with realistic Toomre Q-values self-gravity and galactic differential rotation produce filamentary gaseous structures with kiloparsec-scale separations, regardless of the strength-or even presence-of a stellar spiral potential. However, a sufficiently strong spiral potential is required to produce true spurs, consisting of interarm structures emerging from gas concentrations in the main spiral arms. In models where Q is initially constant, filaments due to interarm self-gravity grow mainly in the outer regions, whereas true arm spurs grow only in the inner regions. For models with Q~R, outer regions are intrinsically more stable, so background interarm filaments do not grow, but arm spurs can develop if the spiral potential is strong. Unlike independently growing background filaments, the orientation of arm spurs depends on galactic location. Inside corotation, spurs emanate outward, on the convex side of the arm; outside corotation, spurs grow inward, on the concave side of the arm. Based on orientation and the relation to arm clumps, it is possible to distinguish true spurs that originate as instabilities in the arms from independently growing background filaments. We measure spur spacings of ~3-5 times the Jeans length in the arm and arm clump masses of ~107 Msolar. Finally, we have also studied models without self-gravity, finding that magnetic fields suppress a purely hydrodynamic instability recently proposed by Wada & Koda as a means of growing interarm spurs and feathers. Our models also suggest that magnetic fields are important in preserving grand-design spiral structure when gas in the arms fragments via self-gravity into GMCs.

Killing the cMSSM softly

DOE PAGES

Bechtle, Philip; Camargo-Molina, José Eliel; Desch, Klaus; ...

2016-02-24

We investigate the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) in the light of constraining experimental and observational data from precision measurements, astrophysics, direct supersymmetry searches at the LHC and measurements of the properties of the Higgs boson, by means of a global fit using the program Fittino. As in previous studies, we find rather poor agreement of the best fit point with the global data. We also investigate the stability of the electro-weak vacuum in the preferred region of parameter space around the best fit point.We find that the vacuum is metastable, with a lifetime significantly longer than the agemore » of the Universe. For the first time in a global fit of supersymmetry, we employ a consistent methodology to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the cMSSM in a frequentist approach by deriving p values from large sets of toy experiments. We analyse analytically and quantitatively the impact of the choice of the observable set on the p value, and in particular its dilution when confronting the model with a large number of barely constraining measurements. Lastly, for the preferred sets of observables, we obtain p values for the cMSSM below 10 %, i.e. we exclude the cMSSM as a model at the 90 % confidence level.« less

First archaeomagnetic field intensity data from Ethiopia, Africa (1615 ± 12 AD)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osete, María Luisa; Catanzariti, Gianluca; Chauvin, Annick; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Roperch, Pierrick; Fernández, Víctor M.

2015-05-01

First archaeointensity determinations have been obtained from Ethiopia. Seven bricks (34 specimens) from the Däbsan archaeological remains were subjected to archaeointensity determination by means of classical Thellier-Thellier experiment including tests for magnetic anisotropy and magnetic cooling rate dependency. The age of the Däbsan Palace is well controlled by historical information: between 1603, when land grants were conceded to the Jesuits and the Catholicism was established as the official religion in Ethiopia, and the age of the Palace foundation in 1626-27. Successful archaeointensity determinations were obtained in 27 specimens from five individual bricks revealing an average field value of 33.5 ± 1.1 μT, which is 11-26% lower than expected values from global geomagnetic models based on historical and archaeomagnetic data. Global models for 1615 AD predict a low in central-southern Africa related to past location of the present Southern Atlantic Anomaly (SAA). Our results suggest that the field intensity in central Africa may have been slightly lower than global model predictions. This would indicate that the low could be probably more extended towards central-eastern Africa (or more intense) than previously considered. Further data from this region are especially welcome to delineate the evolution of the SAA.

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Mineralogical evidence of reduced East Asian summer monsoon rainfall on the Chinese loess plateau during the early Pleistocene interglacials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Xianqiang; Liu, Lianwen; Wang, Xingchen T.; Balsam, William; Chen, Jun; Ji, Junfeng

2018-03-01

The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is an important component of the global climate system. A better understanding of EASM rainfall variability in the past can help constrain climate models and better predict the response of EASM to ongoing global warming. The warm early Pleistocene, a potential analog of future climate, is an important period to study EASM dynamics. However, existing monsoon proxies for reconstruction of EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene fail to disentangle monsoon rainfall changes from temperature variations, complicating the comparison of these monsoon records with climate models. Here, we present three 2.6 million-year-long EASM rainfall records from the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP) based on carbonate dissolution, a novel proxy for rainfall intensity. These records show that the interglacial rainfall on the CLP was lower during the early Pleistocene and then gradually increased with global cooling during the middle and late Pleistocene. These results are contrary to previous suggestions that a warmer climate leads to higher monsoon rainfall on tectonic timescales. We propose that the lower interglacial EASM rainfall during the early Pleistocene was caused by reduced sea surface temperature gradients across the equatorial Pacific, providing a testable hypothesis for climate models.

A revised dislocation model of interseismic deformation of the Cascadia subduction zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Kelin; Wells, Ray E.; Mazzotti, Stephane; Hyndman, Roy D.; Sagiya, Takeshi

2003-01-01

CAS3D‐2, a new three‐dimensional (3‐D) dislocation model, is developed to model interseismic deformation rates at the Cascadia subduction zone. The model is considered a snapshot description of the deformation field that changes with time. The effect of northward secular motion of the central and southern Cascadia forearc sliver is subtracted to obtain the effective convergence between the subducting plate and the forearc. Horizontal deformation data, including strain rates and surface velocities from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, provide primary geodetic constraints, but uplift rate data from tide gauges and leveling also provide important validations for the model. A locked zone, based on the results of previous thermal models constrained by heat flow observations, is located entirely offshore beneath the continental slope. Similar to previous dislocation models, an effective zone of downdip transition from locking to full slip is used, but the slip deficit rate is assumed to decrease exponentially with downdip distance. The exponential function resolves the problem of overpredicting coastal GPS velocities and underpredicting inland velocities by previous models that used a linear downdip transition. A wide effective transition zone (ETZ) partially accounts for stress relaxation in the mantle wedge that cannot be simulated by the elastic model. The pattern of coseismic deformation is expected to be different from that of interseismic deformation at present, 300 years after the last great subduction earthquake. The downdip transition from full rupture to no slip should take place over a much narrower zone.

North Atlantic observations sharpen meridional overturning projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S.-I.; Fan, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Caesar, L.

2018-06-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) projections are uncertain due to both model errors, as well as internal climate variability. An AMOC slowdown projected by many climate models is likely to have considerable effects on many aspects of global and North Atlantic climate. Previous studies to make probabilistic AMOC projections have broken new ground. However, they do not drift-correct or cross-validate the projections, and do not fully account for internal variability. Furthermore, they consider a limited subset of models, and ignore the skill of models at representing the temporal North Atlantic dynamics. We improve on previous work by applying Bayesian Model Averaging to weight 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models by their skill at modeling the AMOC strength, and its temporal dynamics, as approximated by the northern North-Atlantic temperature-based AMOC Index. We make drift-corrected projections accounting for structural model errors, and for the internal variability. Cross-validation experiments give approximately correct empirical coverage probabilities, which validates our method. Our results present more evidence that AMOC likely already started slowing down. While weighting considerably moderates and sharpens our projections, our results are at low end of previously published estimates. We project mean AMOC changes between periods 1960-1999 and 2060-2099 of -4.0 Sv and -6.8 Sv for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios respectively. The corresponding average 90% credible intervals for our weighted experiments are [-7.2, -1.2] and [-10.5, -3.7] Sv respectively for the two scenarios.

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

PubMed

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica

2016-10-01

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global diabatic heating during FGGE SOP-1 and SOP-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.

1986-01-01

With the increase in the observational data provided by FGGE and the use of global circulation models with full physics for the data assimilation, it is now becoming feasible to attempt to estimate globally the atmospheric diabatic heating. The thermodynamic equation in isobaric coordinates and the data generated by the FGGE III-b analysis of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) are employed to serve this purpose. The results of the present study generally agree with other previous investigations. However, some important differences are also revealed. (1) The diabatic heating obtained in the tropics in the present study is larger than that obtained elsewhere; (2) the relatively large heating over the mountainous areas shown in other studies does not appear; (3) no significant negative values of diabatic heating are found in the polar regions; and (4) unlike other studies, cooling is noted over parts of Eurasia in the summer.

New limits on intrinsic charm in the nucleon from global analysis of parton distributions

DOE PAGES

Jimenez-Delgado, P.; Hobbs, T. J.; Londergan, J. T.; ...

2015-02-27

We present a new global QCD analysis of parton distribution functions, allowing for possible intrinsic charm (IC) contributions in the nucleon inspired by light-front models. The analysis makes use of the full range of available high-energy scattering data for Q 2 ≥ 1 GeV 2 and W 2 ≥ 3.5 GeV 2, including fixed-target proton and deuteron deep cross sections at lower energies that were excluded in previously global analyses. The expanded data set places more stringent constraints on the momentum carried by IC, with (x) IC at most 0.5% (corresponding to an IC normalization of ~1%) at the 4σmore » level for Δ X2 = 1. We also assess the impact of older EMC measurements of F c 2c at large x, which favor a nonzero IC, but with very large X 2 values.« less

The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaner, Neil; Voisin, Nathalie; Nijssen, Bart

2012-09-13

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier extent and water storage globally have lead to concerns about the implications for water supplies. However, the current magnitude of glacier contributions to river runoff is not well known, nor is the population at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate an upper bound on glacier melt contribution to seasonal streamflow by computing the energy balance of glaciers globally. Melt water quantities are computed as a fraction of total streamflow simulated using a hydrology model and the melt fraction is tracked down the stream network. In general, our estimates of the glacier meltmore » contribution to streamflow are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we find that globally an estimated 225 (36) million people live in river basins where maximum seasonal glacier melt contributes at least 10% (25%) of streamflow, mostly in the High Asia region.« less

Sample project: establishing a global forest monitoring capability using multi-resolution and multi-temporal remotely sensed data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Matt; Stehman, Steve; Loveland, Tom; Vogelmann, Jim; Cochrane, Mark

2009-01-01

Quantifying rates of forest-cover change is important for improved carbon accounting and climate change modeling, management of forestry and agricultural resources, and biodiversity monitoring. A practical solution to examining trends in forest cover change at global scale is to employ remotely sensed data. Satellite-based monitoring of forest cover can be implemented consistently across large regions at annual and inter-annual intervals. This research extends previous research on global forest-cover dynamics and land-cover change estimation to establish a robust, operational forest monitoring and assessment system. The approach integrates both MODIS and Landsat data to provide timely biome-scale forest change estimation. This is achieved by using annual MODIS change indicator maps to stratify biomes into low, medium and high change categories. Landsat image pairs can then be sampled within these strata and analyzed for estimating area of forest cleared.

Magmatically triggered slow slip at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii.

PubMed

Brooks, Benjamin A; Foster, James; Sandwell, David; Wolfe, Cecily J; Okubo, Paul; Poland, Michael; Myer, David

2008-08-29

We demonstrate that a recent dike intrusion probably triggered a slow fault-slip event (SSE) on Kilauea volcano's mobile south flank. Our analysis combined models of Advanced Land Observing Satellite interferometric dike-intrusion displacement maps with continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement vectors to show that deformation nearly identical to four previous SSEs at Kilauea occurred at far-field sites shortly after the intrusion. We model stress changes because of both secular deformation and the intrusion and find that both would increase the Coulomb failure stress on possible SSE slip surfaces by roughly the same amount. These results, in concert with the observation that none of the previous SSEs at Kilauea was directly preceded by intrusions but rather occurred during times of normal background deformation, suggest that both extrinsic (intrusion-triggering) and intrinsic (secular fault creep) fault processes can lead to SSEs.

2.5D global-disk oscillation models of the Be shell star ζ Tauri. I. Spectroscopic and polarimetric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escolano, C.; Carciofi, A. C.; Okazaki, A. T.; Rivinius, T.; Baade, D.; Štefl, S.

2015-04-01

Context. A large number of Be stars exhibit intensity variations of their violet and red emission peaks in their H i lines observed in emission. This is the so-called V/R phenomenon, usually explained by the precession of a one-armed spiral density perturbation in the circumstellar disk. That global-disk oscillation scenario was confirmed, both observationally and theoretically, in the previous series of two papers analyzing the Be shell star ζ Tauri. The vertically averaged (2D) global-disk oscillation model used at the time was able to reproduce the V/R variations observed in Hα, as well as the spatially resolved interferometric data from AMBER/VLTI. Unfortunately, that model failed to reproduce the V/R phase of Br15 and the amplitude of the polarization variation, suggesting that the inner disk structure predicted by the model was incorrect. Aims: The first aim of the present paper is to quantify the temporal variations of the shell-line characteristics of ζ Tauri. The second aim is to better understand the physics underlying the V/R phenomenon by modeling the shell-line variations together with the V/R and polarimetric variations. The third aim is to test a new 2.5D disk oscillation model, which solves the set of equations that describe the 3D perturbed disk structure but keeps only the equatorial (i.e., 2D) component of the solution. This approximation was adopted to allow comparisons with the previous 2D model, and as a first step toward a future 3D model. Methods: We carried out an extensive analysis of ζ Tauri's spectroscopic variations by measuring various quantities characterizing its Balmer line profiles: red and violet emission peak intensities (for Hα, Hβ, and Br15), depth and asymmetry of the shell absorption (for Hβ, Hγ, and Hδ), and the respective position (i.e., radial velocity) of each component. We attempted to model the observed variations by implementing in the radiative transfer code HDUST the perturbed disk structure computed with a recently developed 2.5D global-disk oscillation model. Results: The observational analysis indicates that the peak separation and the position of the shell absorption both exhibit variations following the V/R variations and, thus, may provide good diagnostic tools of the global-disk oscillation phenomenon. The shell absorption seems to become slightly shallower close to the V/R maximum, but the scarcity of the data does not allow the exact pattern to be identified. The asymmetry of the shell absorption does not seem to correlate with the V/R cycle; no significant variations of this parameter are observed, except during certain periods where Hα and Hβ exhibit perturbed emission profiles. The origin of these so-called triple-peak phases remains unknown. On the theoretical side, the new 2.5D formalism appears to improve the agreement with the observed V/R variations of Hα and Br15, under the proviso that a large value of the viscosity parameter, α = 0.8, be adopted. It remains challenging for the models to reproduce consistently the amplitude and the average level of the polarization data. The 2D formalism provides a better match to the peak separation, although the variation amplitude predicted by both the 2D and 2.5D models is smaller than the observed value. Shell-line variations are difficult for the models to reproduce, whatever formalism is adopted. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Information processing speed as a mediator between psychosocial stress and global cognition in older adults.

PubMed

Foong, Hui F; Hamid, Tengku A; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Haron, Sharifah A

2018-01-01

The link between psychosocial stress and cognitive function is complex, and previous studies have indicated that it may be mediated by processing speed. Therefore, the main aim of this study was to examine whether processing speed mediates the association between psychosocial stress and global cognition in older adults. Moreover, the moderating role of gender in this model is examined as well. The study included 2322 community-dwelling older adults in Malaysia who were randomly selected through a multistage proportional cluster random sampling technique. Global cognition construct was measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination and Montreal Cognitive Assessment; psychosocial stress construct was measured by perceived stress, depression, loneliness, and neuroticism; and processing speed was assessed by the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Structural equation modelling was used to analyze the mediation and moderation tests. Processing speed was found to partially mediate the relationship between psychosocial stress and global cognition (β in the direct model = -0.15, P < 0.001; β in the full mediation model = -0.11, P < 0.001). Moreover, the relationship between psychosocial stress and global cognition was found to be significant in men only, whereas the association between processing speed and global cognition was significant in men and women. Psychosocial stress may increase the likelihood that older adults will experience poor processing capacity, which could reduce their higher level cognition. Results indicate that there is a need to develop processing capacity intervention programmes for psychologically distressed older adults to prevent them from suffering cognitive decline. © 2018 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

Global Instrumental Seismic Catalog: earthquake relocations for 1900-present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villasenor, A.; Engdahl, E.; Storchak, D. A.; Bondar, I.

2010-12-01

We present the current status of our efforts to produce a set of homogeneous earthquake locations and improved focal depths towards the compilation of a Global Catalog of instrumentally recorded earthquakes that will be complete down to the lowest magnitude threshold possible on a global scale and for the time period considered. This project is currently being carried out under the auspices of GEM (Global Earthquake Model). The resulting earthquake catalog will be a fundamental dataset not only for earthquake risk modeling and assessment on a global scale, but also for a large number of studies such as global and regional seismotectonics; the rupture zones and return time of large, damaging earthquakes; the spatial-temporal pattern of moment release along seismic zones and faults etc. Our current goal is to re-locate all earthquakes with available station arrival data using the following magnitude thresholds: M5.5 for 1964-present, M6.25 for 1918-1963, M7.5 (complemented with significant events in continental regions) for 1900-1917. Phase arrival time data for earthquakes after 1963 are available in digital form from the International Seismological Centre (ISC). For earthquakes in the time period 1918-1963, phase data is obtained by scanning the printed International Seismological Summary (ISS) bulletins and applying optical character recognition routines. For earlier earthquakes we will collect phase data from individual station bulletins. We will illustrate some of the most significant results of this relocation effort, including aftershock distributions for large earthquakes, systematic differences in epicenter and depth with respect to previous location, examples of grossly mislocated events, etc.

Tides and tidal stress: Applications to Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Terry Anthony, Jr.

A review of analytical techniques and documentation of previously inaccessible mathematical formulations is applied to study of Jupiter's satellite Europa. Compared with numerical codes that are commonly used to model global tidal effects, analytical models of tidal deformation give deeper insight into the mechanics of tides, and can better reveal the nature of the dependence of observable effects on key parameters. I develop analytical models for tidal deformation of multi-layered bodies. Previous studies of Europa, based on numerical computation, only to show isolated examples from parameter space. My results show a systematic dependence of tidal response on the thicknesses and material parameters of Europa's core, rocky mantle, liquid water ocean, and outer layer of ice. As in the earlier work, I restrict these studies to incompressible materials. Any set of Love numbers h 2 and k 2 which describe a planet's tidal deformation, could be fit by a range of ice thickness values, by adjusting other parameters such as mantle rigidity or core size, an important result for mission planning. Inclusion of compression into multilayer models has been addressed analytically, uncovering several issues that are not explicit in the literature. Full evaluation with compression is here restricted to a uniform sphere. A set of singularities in the classical solution, which correspond to instabilities due to self-gravity has been identified and mapped in parameter space. The analytical models of tidal response yield the stresses anywhere within the body, including on its surface. Crack patterns (such as cycloids) on Europa are probably controlled by these stresses. However, in contrast to previous studies which used a thin shell approximation of the tidal stress, I consider how other tidal models compare with the observed tectonic features. In this way the relationship between Europa's surface tectonics and the global tidal distortion can be constrained. While large-scale tidal deformations probe internal structure deep within a body, small-scale deformations can probe internal structure at shallower depths. I have used photoclinometry to obtain topographic profiles across terrain adjacent to Europan ridges to detect the effects of loading on the lithosphere. Lithospheric thicknesses have been determined and correlated with types and ages of terrain.

Energy supply and demand modeling. February 1985-March 1988 (A Bibliography from the NTIS data base). Report for February 1985-March 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-06-01

This bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 201 citations, none of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. February 1985-March 1988 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for February 1985-March 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1988-04-01

This bibliography contains citations concerning the utilization of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long-term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 201 citations, 129 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

Energy supply and demand modeling. April 1988-June 1990 (A Bibliography from the NTIS data base). Report for April 1988-June 1990

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1990-06-01

This bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 200 citations, all of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

Energy-confinement scaling for high-beta plasmas in the W7-AS stellarator.

PubMed

Preuss, R; Dinklage, A; Weller, A

2007-12-14

High-beta energy-confinement data are subjected to comparisons of scaling invariant, first-principles physical models. The models differ in the inclusion of basic equations indicating the nature of transport. The result for high-beta data of the W7-AS stellarator is that global transport is described best with a collisional high-beta model, which is different from previous outcomes for low-beta data. Model predictive calculations indicate the validation of energy-confinement prediction with respect to plasma beta and collisionality nu*. The finding of different transport behaviors in distinct beta regimes is important for the development of fusion energy based on magnetic confinement and for the assessment of different confinement concepts.

Climate change and floods - findings and adaptation strategies for flood protection in Baden-Württemberg.

PubMed

Hennegriff, W

2007-01-01

The climatic conditions in Southern Germany have changed noticeably in the 20th century, especially during the last three decades. Both in specific regions and interannually, the trends found exceed the natural margins of deviation previously known from long measurement series for some measured quantities. The mean and also the extreme floods are expected to increase significantly, although the results of the model chain global model-regional climate models-water balance models are still uncertain. As a precaution an adaptation strategy has been developed for the field of flood protection which takes into consideration the possible development for the next decades and also takes into account the uncertainties.

Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing.

PubMed

Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2015-09-22

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km(2) and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat.

Particle-in-cell and global simulations of α to γ transition in atmospheric pressure Penning-dominated capacitive discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamura, E.; Lieberman, M. A.; Lichtenberg, A. J.; Chabert, P.; Lazzaroni, C.

2014-06-01

Atmospheric pressure radio-frequency (rf) capacitive micro-discharges are of interest due to emerging applications, especially in the bio-medical field. A previous global model did not consider high-power phenomena such as sheath multiplication, thus limiting its applicability to the lower power range. To overcome this, we use one-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of atmospheric He/0.1% N2 capacitive discharges over a wide range of currents and frequencies to guide the development of a more general global model which is also valid at higher powers. The new model includes sheath multiplication and two classes of electrons: the higher temperature ‘hot’ electrons associated with the sheaths, and the cooler ‘warm’ electrons associated with the bulk. The electric field and the electron power balance are solved analytically to determine the time-varying hot and warm temperatures and the effective rate coefficients. The particle balance equations are integrated numerically to determine the species densities. The model and PIC results are compared, showing reasonable agreement over the range of currents and frequencies studied. They indicate a transition from an α mode at low power characterized by relatively high electron temperature Te with a near uniform profile to a γ mode at high power with a Te profile strongly depressed in the bulk plasma. The transition is accompanied by an increase in density and a decrease in sheath widths. The current and frequency scalings of the model are confirmed by the PIC simulations.

Threat of plastic pollution to seabirds is global, pervasive, and increasing

PubMed Central

Wilcox, Chris; Van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2015-01-01

Plastic pollution in the ocean is a global concern; concentrations reach 580,000 pieces per km2 and production is increasing exponentially. Although a large number of empirical studies provide emerging evidence of impacts to wildlife, there has been little systematic assessment of risk. We performed a spatial risk analysis using predicted debris distributions and ranges for 186 seabird species to model debris exposure. We adjusted the model using published data on plastic ingestion by seabirds. Eighty of 135 (59%) species with studies reported in the literature between 1962 and 2012 had ingested plastic, and, within those studies, on average 29% of individuals had plastic in their gut. Standardizing the data for time and species, we estimate the ingestion rate would reach 90% of individuals if these studies were conducted today. Using these results from the literature, we tuned our risk model and were able to capture 71% of the variation in plastic ingestion based on a model including exposure, time, study method, and body size. We used this tuned model to predict risk across seabird species at the global scale. The highest area of expected impact occurs at the Southern Ocean boundary in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, which contrasts with previous work identifying this area as having low anthropogenic pressures and concentrations of marine debris. We predict that plastics ingestion is increasing in seabirds, that it will reach 99% of all species by 2050, and that effective waste management can reduce this threat. PMID:26324886

Dark Gauge U(1) symmetry for an alternative left-right model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kownacki, Corey; Ma, Ernest; Pollard, Nicholas; Popov, Oleg; Zakeri, Mohammadreza

2018-02-01

An alternative left-right model of quarks and leptons, where the SU(2)_R lepton doublet (ν ,l)_R is replaced with (n,l)_R so that n_R is not the Dirac mass partner of ν _L, has been known since 1987. Previous versions assumed a global U(1)_S symmetry to allow n to be identified as a dark-matter fermion. We propose here a gauge extension by the addition of extra fermions to render the model free of gauge anomalies, and just one singlet scalar to break U(1)_S. This results in two layers of dark matter, one hidden behind the other.

Identifying key sources of uncertainty in the modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Sweetapple, Christine; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2013-09-01

This study investigates sources of uncertainty in the modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment, through the use of local and global sensitivity analysis tools, and contributes to an in-depth understanding of wastewater treatment modelling by revealing critical parameters and parameter interactions. One-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis is used to screen model parameters and identify those with significant individual effects on three performance indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions, effluent quality and operational cost. Sobol's method enables identification of parameters with significant higher order effects and of particular parameter pairs to which model outputs are sensitive. Use of a variance-based global sensitivity analysis tool to investigate parameter interactions enables identification of important parameters not revealed in one-factor-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These interaction effects have not been considered in previous studies and thus provide a better understanding wastewater treatment plant model characterisation. It was found that uncertainty in modelled nitrous oxide emissions is the primary contributor to uncertainty in total greenhouse gas emissions, due largely to the interaction effects of three nitrogen conversion modelling parameters. The higher order effects of these parameters are also shown to be a key source of uncertainty in effluent quality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A model composition for Mars derived from the oxygen isotopic ratios of martian/SNC meteorites. [Abstract only

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delaney, J. S.

1994-01-01

Oxygen is the most abundant element in most meteorites, yet the ratios of its isotopes are seldom used to constrain the compositional history of achondrites. The two major achondrite groups have O isotope signatures that differ from any plausible chondritic precursors and lie between the ordinary and carbonaceous chondrite domains. If the assumption is made that the present global sampling of chondritic meteorites reflects the variability of O reservoirs at the time of planetessimal/planet aggregation in the early nebula, then the O in these groups must reflect mixing between known chondritic reservoirs. This approach, in combination with constraints based on Fe-Mn-Mg systematics, has been used previously to model the composition of the basaltic achondrite parent body (BAP) and provides a model precursor composition that is generally consistent with previous eucrite parent body (EPB) estimates. The same approach is applied to Mars exploiting the assumption that the SNC and related meteorites sample the martian lithosphere. Model planet and planetesimal compositions can be derived by mixing of known chondritic components using O isotope ratios as the fundamental compositional constraint. The major- and minor-element composition for Mars derived here and that derived previously for the basaltic achondrite parent body are, in many respects, compatible with model compositions generated using completely independent constraints. The role of volatile elements and alkalis in particular remains a major difficulty in applying such models.

Developing a global mixed-canopy, height-variable vegetation structure dataset for estimating global vegetation albedo by a clumped canopy radiative transfer scheme in the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model and GISS GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montes, Carlo; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Ni-Meister, Wenge; Yang, Wenze; Schaaf, Crystal; Aleinov, Igor; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Zhao, Feng; Yao, Tian; Wang, Zhuosen; Sun, Qingsong; Carrer, Dominique

2016-04-01

Processes determining biosphere-atmosphere coupling are strongly influenced by vegetation structure. Thus, ecosystem carbon sequestration and evapotranspiration affecting global carbon and water balances will depend upon the spatial extent of vegetation, its vertical structure, and its physiological variability. To represent this globally, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) coupled to General Circulation Models (GCMs) make use of satellite and/or model-based vegetation classifications often composed by homogeneous communities. This work aims at developing a new Global Vegetation Structure Dataset (GVSD) by incorporating varying vegetation heights for mixed plant communities to be used as boundary conditions to the Analytical Clumped Two-Stream (ACTS) canopy radiative transfer scheme (Ni-Meister et al., 2010) incorporated into the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBM), the DGVM coupled to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. Information sources about land surface and vegetation characteristics obtained from a number of earth observation platforms and algorithms include the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and plant functional types (PFTs) (Friedl et al., 2010), soil albedo derived from MODIS (Carrer et al., 2014), along with vegetation height from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) (Simard et al., 2011; Tang et al., 2014). Three widely used Leaf Area Index (LAI) products are compared as input to the GVSD and ACTS forcing in terms of vegetation albedo: Global Data Sets of Vegetation (LAI)3g (Zhu et al. 2013), Beijing Normal University LAI (Yuan et al., 2011), and MODIS MOD15A2H product (Yang et al., 2006). Further PFT partitioning is performed according to a climate classification utilizing the Climate Research Unit (CRU; Harris et al., 2013) and the NOAA Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC; Scheider et al., 2014) data. Final products are a GVSD consisting of mixed plant communities (e.g. mixed forests, savannas, mixed PFTs) following the Ecosystem Demography model (Moorcroft et al., 2001) approach represented by multi-cohort community patches at the sub-grid level of the GCM, which are ensembles of identical individuals whose differences are represented by PFTs, canopy height, density and vegetation structure sensitivity to allometric parameters. The performance of the Ent TBM in estimating VIS-NIR vegetation albedo by the new GVSD and ACTS is assessed first by comparison against the previous GISS GCM vegetation classification and prescribed Lambertian albedoes of Matthews (1984), and secondly, against MODIS global estimations and FLUXNET site-scale observations. Ultimately, this GVSD will serve as a template for community data sets, and be used as boundary conditions to the Ent TBM for prediction of biomass, carbon balances and GISS GCM climate.

CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

Human impact on wildfires varies between regions and with vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasslop, Gitta; Kloster, Silvia

2017-11-01

We assess the influence of humans on burned area simulated with a dynamic global vegetation model. The human impact in the model is based on population density and cropland fraction, which were identified as important drivers of burned area in analyses of global datasets, and are commonly used in global models. After an evaluation of the sensitivity to these two variables we extend the model by including an additional effect of the cropland fraction on the fire duration. The general pattern of human influence is similar in both model versions: the strongest human impact is found in regions with intermediate productivity, where fire occurrence is not limited by fuel load or climatic conditions. Human effects in the model increases burned area in the tropics, while in temperate regions burned area is reduced. While the population density is similar on average for the tropical and temperate regions, the cropland fraction is higher in temperate regions, and leads to a strong suppression of fire. The model shows a low human impact in the boreal region, where both population density and cropland fraction is very low and the climatic conditions, as well as the vegetation productivity limit fire. Previous studies attributed a decrease in fire activity found in global charcoal datasets to human activity. This is confirmed by our simulations, which only show a decrease in burned area when the human influence on fire is accounted for, and not with only natural effects on fires. We assess how the vegetation-fire feedback influences the results, by comparing simulations with dynamic vegetation biogeography to simulations with prescribed vegetation. The vegetation-fire feedback increases the human impact on burned area by 10% for present day conditions. These results emphasize that projections of burned area need to account for the interactions between fire, climate, vegetation and humans.