Breast and ovarian cancer risks to carriers of the BRCA1 5382insC and 185delAG and BRCA2 6174delT mutations: a combined analysis of 22 population based studies

PubMed Central

Antoniou, A; Pharoah, P; Narod, S; Risch, H; Eyfjord, J; Hopper, J; Olsson, H; Johannsson, O; Borg, A; Pasini, B; Radice, P; Manoukian, S; Eccles, D; Tang, N; Olah, E; Anton-Culver, H; Warner, E; Lubinski, J; Gronwald, J; Gorski, B; Tulinius, H; Thorlacius, S; Eerola, H; Nevanlinna, H; Syrjakoski, K; Kallioniemi, O; Thompson, D; Evans, C; Peto, J; Lalloo, F; Evans, D; Easton, D

2005-01-01

A recent report estimated the breast cancer risks in carriers of the three Ashkenazi founder mutations to be higher than previously published estimates derived from population based studies. In an attempt to confirm this, the breast and ovarian cancer risks associated with the three Ashkenazi founder mutations were estimated using families included in a previous meta-analysis of populatrion based studies. The estimated breast cancer risks for each of the founder BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were similar to the corresponding estimates based on all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations in the meta-analysis. These estimates appear to be consistent with the observed prevalence of the mutations in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. PMID:15994883

Equations based on anthropometry to predict body fat measured by absorptiometry in schoolchildren and adolescents.

PubMed

Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Vega López, A Valeria; Ramos-Ibáñez, Norma; Cázares Lara, L Joana; Medina Gómez, R Joab; Pérez-Salgado, Diana

To develop and validate equations to estimate the percentage of body fat of children and adolescents from Mexico using anthropometric measurements. A cross-sectional study was carried out with 601 children and adolescents from Mexico aged 5-19 years. The participants were randomly divided into the following two groups: the development sample (n=398) and the validation sample (n=203). The validity of previously published equations (e.g., Slaughter) was also assessed. The percentage of body fat was estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The anthropometric measurements included height, sitting height, weight, waist and arm circumferences, skinfolds (triceps, biceps, subscapular, supra-iliac, and calf), and elbow and bitrochanteric breadth. Linear regression models were estimated with the percentage of body fat as the dependent variable and the anthropometric measurements as the independent variables. Equations were created based on combinations of six to nine anthropometric variables and had coefficients of determination (r 2 ) equal to or higher than 92.4% for boys and 85.8% for girls. In the validation sample, the developed equations had high r 2 values (≥85.6% in boys and ≥78.1% in girls) in all age groups, low standard errors (SE≤3.05% in boys and ≤3.52% in girls), and the intercepts were not different from the origin (p>0.050). Using the previously published equations, the coefficients of determination were lower, and/or the intercepts were different from the origin. The equations developed in this study can be used to assess the percentage of body fat of Mexican schoolchildren and adolescents, as they demonstrate greater validity and lower error compared with previously published equations. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Estimating the cost of a smoking employee.

PubMed

Berman, Micah; Crane, Rob; Seiber, Eric; Munur, Mehmet

2014-09-01

We attempted to estimate the excess annual costs that a US private employer may attribute to employing an individual who smokes tobacco as compared to a non-smoking employee. Reviewing and synthesising previous literature estimating certain discrete costs associated with smoking employees, we developed a cost estimation approach that approximates the total of such costs for U.S. employers. We examined absenteeism, presenteesim, smoking breaks, healthcare costs and pension benefits for smokers. Our best estimate of the annual excess cost to employ a smoker is $5816. This estimate should be taken as a general indicator of the extent of excess costs, not as a predictive point value. Employees who smoke impose significant excess costs on private employers. The results of this study may help inform employer decisions about tobacco-related policies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Using step and path selection functions for estimating resistance to movement: Pumas as a case study

Treesearch

Katherine A. Zeller; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Paul Beier; T. Winston Vickers; Walter M. Boyce

2015-01-01

GPS telemetry collars and their ability to acquire accurate and consistently frequent locations have increased the use of step selection functions (SSFs) and path selection functions (PathSFs) for studying animal movement and estimating resistance. However, previously published SSFs and PathSFs often do not accommodate multiple scales or multiscale modeling....

New, national bottom-up estimate for tree-based biological ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Nitrogen is a limiting nutrient in many ecosystems, but is also a chief pollutant from human activity. Quantifying human impacts on the nitrogen cycle and investigating natural ecosystem nitrogen cycling both require an understanding of the magnitude of nitrogen inputs from biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). A bottom-up approach to estimating BNF—scaling rates up from measurements to broader scales—is attractive because it is rooted in actual BNF measurements. However, bottom-up approaches have been hindered by scaling difficulties, and a recent top-down approach suggested that the previous bottom-up estimate was much too large. Here, we used a bottom-up approach for tree-based BNF, overcoming scaling difficulties with the systematic, immense (>70,000 N-fixing trees) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database. We employed two approaches to estimate species-specific BNF rates: published ecosystem-scale rates (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and published estimates of the percent of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) combined with FIA-derived growth rates. Species-specific rates can vary for a variety of reasons, so for each approach we examined how different assumptions influenced our results. Specifically, we allowed BNF rates to vary with stand age, N-fixer density, and canopy position (since N-fixation is known to require substantial light).Our estimates from this bottom-up technique are several orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates indicating

Mortality estimate of Chinese mystery snail, Bellamya chinensis (Reeve, 1863) in a Nebraska reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haak, Danielle M.; Chaine, Noelle M.; Stephen, Bruce J.; Wong, Alec; Allen, Craig R.

2013-01-01

The Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) is an aquatic invasive species found throughout the USA. Little is known about this species’ life history or ecology, and only one population estimate has been published, for Wild Plum Lake in southeast Nebraska. A recent die-off event occurred at this same reservoir and we present a mortality estimate for this B. chinensis population using a quadrat approach. Assuming uniform distribution throughout the newly-exposed lake bed (20,900 m2), we estimate 42,845 individuals died during this event, amounting to approximately 17% of the previously-estimated population size of 253,570. Assuming uniform distribution throughout all previously-reported available habitat (48,525 m2), we estimate 99,476 individuals died, comprising 39% of the previously-reported adult population. The die-off occurred during an extreme drought event, which was coincident with abnormally hot weather. However, the exact reason of the die-off is still unclear. More monitoring of the population dynamics of B. chinensis is necessary to further our understanding of this species’ ecology.

Analysis of the costs and payments of a coordinated stroke center and regional stroke network.

PubMed

Rymer, Marilyn M; Armstrong, Edward P; Meredith, Neil R; Pham, Sissi V; Thorpe, Kevin; Kruzikas, Denise T

2013-08-01

An earlier study demonstrated significantly improved access, treatment, and outcomes after the implementation of a progressive, comprehensive stroke program at a tertiary care community hospital, Saint Luke's Neuroscience Institute (SLNI). This study evaluated the costs associated with implementing such a program. Retrospective analysis of total hospital costs and payments for treating patients with ischemic stroke at SLNI (n=1570) as program enhancement evolved over time (2005, 2007, and 2010) and compared with published national estimates. Analyses were stratified by patient demographic characteristics, patient outcomes, treatments, time, and comorbidities. Controlling for inflation, there was no difference in SLNI total costs between 2005 and either 2007 or 2010, suggesting that while SLNI provided an increased level of services, any additional expenditures were offset by efficiencies. SLNI total costs were slightly lower than published benchmarks. Consistent with previous stroke care cost estimates, the median overall differential between total hospital costs and payments for all ischemic stroke cases was negative. SLNI total costs remained consistent over time and were slightly lower than previously published estimates, suggesting that a focused, streamlined stroke program can be implemented without a significant economic impact. This finding further demonstrates that providing comprehensive stroke care with improved access and treatment may be financially feasible for other hospitals.

Development of 1-Mile Walk Tests to Estimate Aerobic Fitness in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sung, Hoyong; Collier, David N.; DuBose, Katrina D.; Kemble, C. David; Mahar, Matthew T.

2018-01-01

To examine the reliability and validity of 1-mile walk tests for estimation of aerobic fitness (VO[subscript 2max]) in 10- to 13-year-old children and to cross-validate previously published equations. Participants (n = 61) walked 1-mile on two different days. Self-reported physical activity, demographic variables, and aerobic fitness were used in…

QFASAR: Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis with R

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.

2017-01-01

Knowledge of predator diets provides essential insights into their ecology, yet diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research.Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) is a popular method of estimating diet composition that continues to be investigated and extended. However, software to implement QFASA has only recently become publicly available.I summarize a new R package, qfasar, for diet estimation using QFASA methods. The package also provides functionality to evaluate and potentially improve the performance of a library of prey signature data, compute goodness-of-fit diagnostics, and support simulation-based research. Several procedures in the package have not previously been published.qfasar makes traditional and recently published QFASA diet estimation methods accessible to ecologists for the first time. Use of the package is illustrated with signature data from Chukchi Sea polar bears and potential prey species.

Galactic cosmic radiation exposure of pregnant aircrew members II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-10-01

This report is an updated version of a previously published Technical Note in the journal Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine. The main change is that improved computer programs were used to estimate galactic cosmic radiation. The calculation...

Shear strength of clay and silt embankments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Highway embankment is one of the most common large-scale geotechnical facilities constructed in Ohio. In the past, the design of these embankments was largely based on soil shear strength properties that had been estimated from previously published e...

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

PubMed

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

A brief review of the estimated economic burden of sexually transmitted diseases in the United States: inflation-adjusted updates of previously published cost studies.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Gift, Thomas L; Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Tao, Guoyu; Johnson, Ana P; Kent, Charlotte K

2011-10-01

We conducted a literature review of studies of the economic burden of sexually transmitted diseases in the United States. The annual direct medical cost of sexually transmitted diseases (including human immunodeficiency virus) has been estimated to be $16.9 billion (range: $13.9-$23.0 billion) in 2010 US dollars.

Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

2014-01-01

This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

First Nuclear DNA Amounts in more than 300 Angiosperms

PubMed Central

ZONNEVELD, B. J. M.; LEITCH, I. J.; BENNETT, M. D.

2005-01-01

• Background and Aims Genome size (DNA C-value) data are key biodiversity characters of fundamental significance used in a wide variety of biological fields. Since 1976, Bennett and colleagues have made scattered published and unpublished genome size data more widely accessible by assembling them into user-friendly compilations. Initially these were published as hard copy lists, but since 1997 they have also been made available electronically (see the Plant DNA C-values database www.kew.org/cval/homepage.html). Nevertheless, at the Second Plant Genome Size Meeting in 2003, Bennett noted that as many as 1000 DNA C-value estimates were still unpublished and hence unavailable. Scientists were strongly encouraged to communicate such unpublished data. The present work combines the databasing experience of the Kew-based authors with the unpublished C-values produced by Zonneveld to make a large body of valuable genome size data available to the scientific community. • Methods C-values for angiosperm species, selected primarily for their horticultural interest, were estimated by flow cytometry using the fluorochrome propidium iodide. The data were compiled into a table whose form is similar to previously published lists of DNA amounts by Bennett and colleagues. • Key Results and Conclusions The present work contains C-values for 411 taxa including first values for 308 species not listed previously by Bennett and colleagues. Based on a recent estimate of the global published output of angiosperm DNA C-value data (i.e. 200 first C-value estimates per annum) the present work equals 1·5 years of average global published output; and constitutes over 12 % of the latest 5-year global target set by the Second Plant Genome Size Workshop (see www.kew.org/cval/workshopreport.html). Hopefully, the present example will encourage others to unveil further valuable data which otherwise may lie forever unpublished and unavailable for comparative analyses. PMID:15905300

Absolute probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes to North Atlantic right whales in Roseway Basin, Scotian Shelf.

PubMed

van der Hoop, Julie M; Vanderlaan, Angelia S M; Taggart, Christopher T

2012-10-01

Vessel strikes are the primary source of known mortality for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis). Multi-institutional efforts to reduce mortality associated with vessel strikes include vessel-routing amendments such as the International Maritime Organization voluntary "area to be avoided" (ATBA) in the Roseway Basin right whale feeding habitat on the southwestern Scotian Shelf. Though relative probabilities of lethal vessel strikes have been estimated and published, absolute probabilities remain unknown. We used a modeling approach to determine the regional effect of the ATBA, by estimating reductions in the expected number of lethal vessel strikes. This analysis differs from others in that it explicitly includes a spatiotemporal analysis of real-time transits of vessels through a population of simulated, swimming right whales. Combining automatic identification system (AIS) vessel navigation data and an observationally based whale movement model allowed us to determine the spatial and temporal intersection of vessels and whales, from which various probability estimates of lethal vessel strikes are derived. We estimate one lethal vessel strike every 0.775-2.07 years prior to ATBA implementation, consistent with and more constrained than previous estimates of every 2-16 years. Following implementation, a lethal vessel strike is expected every 41 years. When whale abundance is held constant across years, we estimate that voluntary vessel compliance with the ATBA results in an 82% reduction in the per capita rate of lethal strikes; very similar to a previously published estimate of 82% reduction in the relative risk of a lethal vessel strike. The models we developed can inform decision-making and policy design, based on their ability to provide absolute, population-corrected, time-varying estimates of lethal vessel strikes, and they are easily transported to other regions and situations.

MOELCULAR SIZE EXCLUSION BY SOIL ORGANIC MATERIALS ESTIMATED FROM THEIR SWELLING IN ORGANIC SOLVENTS

EPA Science Inventory

A published method previously developed to measure the swelling characteristics of pow dered coal samples has been adapted for swelling measurements on various peat, pollen, chain, and cellulose samples The swelling of these macromolecular materials is the volumetric manifestatio...

MOLECULAR SIZE EXCLUSION BY SOIL ORGANIC MATERIALS ESTIMATED FROM THEIR SWELLING IN ORGANIC SOLVENTS

EPA Science Inventory

A published method previously developed to measure the swelling characteristics of powdered coal samples has been adapted for swelling measurements on various peat, pollen, chitin, and cellulose samples. he swelling of these macromolecular materials is the volumetric manifestatio...

Woodpecker densities in the big woods of Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Luscier, J.D.; Krementz, David G.

2010-01-01

Sightings of the now-feared-extinct ivory-billed woodpecker Campephilus principalis in 2004 in the Big Woods of Arkansas initiated a series of studies on how to best manage habitat for this endangered species as well as all woodpeckers in the area. Previous work suggested that densities of other woodpeckers, particularly pileated Dryocopus pileatus and red-bellied Melanerpes carolinus woodpeckers, might be useful in characterizing habitat use by the ivory-billed woodpecker. We estimated densities of six woodpecker species in the Big Woods during the breeding seasons of 2006 and 2007 and also during the winter season of 2007. Our estimated densities were as high as or higher than previously published woodpecker density estimates for the Southeastern United States. Density estimates ranged from 9.1 to 161.3 individuals/km2 across six woodpecker species. Our data suggest that the Big Woods of Arkansas is attractive to all woodpeckers using the region, including ivory-billed woodpeckers.

Global sulfur emissions from 1850 to 2000.

PubMed

Stern, David I

2005-01-01

The ASL database provides continuous time-series of sulfur emissions for most countries in the World from 1850 to 1990, but academic and official estimates for the 1990s either do not cover all years or countries. This paper develops continuous time series of sulfur emissions by country for the period 1850-2000 with a particular focus on developments in the 1990s. Global estimates for 1996-2000 are the first that are based on actual observed data. Raw estimates are obtained in two ways. For countries and years with existing published data I compile and integrate that data. Previously published data covers the majority of emissions and almost all countries have published emissions for at least 1995. For the remaining countries and for missing years for countries with some published data, I interpolate or extrapolate estimates using either an econometric emissions frontier model, an environmental Kuznets curve model, or a simple extrapolation, depending on the availability of data. Finally, I discuss the main movements in global and regional emissions in the 1990s and earlier decades and compare the results to other studies. Global emissions peaked in 1989 and declined rapidly thereafter. The locus of emissions shifted towards East and South Asia, but even this region peaked in 1996. My estimates for the 1990s show a much more rapid decline than other global studies, reflecting the view that technological progress in reducing sulfur based pollution has been rapid and is beginning to diffuse worldwide.

Determining the Spatial and Seasonal Variability in OM/OC Ratios across the U.S. Using Multiple Regression

EPA Science Inventory

Data from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network are used to estimate organic mass to organic carbon (OM/OC) ratios across the United States by extending previously published multiple regression techniques. Our new methodology addresses com...

An Unbiased Estimate of Global Interrater Agreement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cousineau, Denis; Laurencelle, Louis

2017-01-01

Assessing global interrater agreement is difficult as most published indices are affected by the presence of mixtures of agreements and disagreements. A previously proposed method was shown to be specifically sensitive to global agreement, excluding mixtures, but also negatively biased. Here, we propose two alternatives in an attempt to find what…

Human neutrophil kinetics: modeling of stable isotope labeling data supports short blood neutrophil half-lives.

PubMed

Lahoz-Beneytez, Julio; Elemans, Marjet; Zhang, Yan; Ahmed, Raya; Salam, Arafa; Block, Michael; Niederalt, Christoph; Asquith, Becca; Macallan, Derek

2016-06-30

Human neutrophils have traditionally been thought to have a short half-life in blood; estimates vary from 4 to 18 hours. This dogma was recently challenged by stable isotope labeling studies with heavy water, which yielded estimates in excess of 3 days. To investigate this disparity, we generated new stable isotope labeling data in healthy adult subjects using both heavy water (n = 4) and deuterium-labeled glucose (n = 9), a compound with more rapid labeling kinetics. To interpret results, we developed a novel mechanistic model and applied it to previously published (n = 5) and newly generated data. We initially constrained the ratio of the blood neutrophil pool to the marrow precursor pool (ratio = 0.26; from published values). Analysis of heavy water data sets yielded turnover rates consistent with a short blood half-life, but parameters, particularly marrow transit time, were poorly defined. Analysis of glucose-labeling data yielded more precise estimates of half-life (0.79 ± 0.25 days; 19 hours) and marrow transit time (5.80 ± 0.42 days). Substitution of this marrow transit time in the heavy water analysis gave a better-defined blood half-life of 0.77 ± 0.14 days (18.5 hours), close to glucose-derived values. Allowing the ratio of blood neutrophils to mitotic neutrophil precursors (R) to vary yielded a best-fit value of 0.19. Reanalysis of the previously published model and data also revealed the origin of their long estimates for neutrophil half-life: an implicit assumption that R is very large, which is physiologically untenable. We conclude that stable isotope labeling in healthy humans is consistent with a blood neutrophil half-life of less than 1 day. © 2016 by The American Society of Hematology.

Genital Chlamydia trachomatis Infections Clear More Slowly in Men Than Women, but Are Less Likely to Become Established.

PubMed

Lewis, Joanna; Price, Malcolm J; Horner, Paddy J; White, Peter J

2017-07-15

Rigorous estimates for clearance rates of untreated chlamydia infections are important for understanding chlamydia epidemiology and designing control interventions, but were previously only available for women. We used data from published studies of chlamydia-infected men who were retested at a later date without having received treatment. Our analysis allowed new infections to take one of 1, 2, or 3 courses, each clearing at a different rate. We determined which of these 3 models had the most empirical support. The best-fitting model had 2 courses of infection in men, as was previously found for women: "slow-clearing" and "fast-clearing." Only 68% (57%-78%) (posterior median and 95% credible interval [CrI]) of incident infections in men were slow-clearing, vs 77% (69%-84%) in women. The slow clearance rate in men (based on 6 months' follow-up) was 0.35 (.05-1.15) year-1 (posterior median and 95% CrI), corresponding to mean infection duration 2.84 (.87-18.79) years. This compares to 1.35 (1.13-1.63) years in women. Our estimated clearance rate is slower than previously assumed. Fewer infections become established in men than women but once established, they clear more slowly. This study provides an improved description of chlamydia's natural history to inform public health decision making. We describe how further data collection could reduce uncertainty in estimates. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

A comparison of kinematic algorithms to estimate gait events during overground running.

PubMed

Smith, Laura; Preece, Stephen; Mason, Duncan; Bramah, Christopher

2015-01-01

The gait cycle is frequently divided into two distinct phases, stance and swing, which can be accurately determined from ground reaction force data. In the absence of such data, kinematic algorithms can be used to estimate footstrike and toe-off. The performance of previously published algorithms is not consistent between studies. Furthermore, previous algorithms have not been tested at higher running speeds nor used to estimate ground contact times. Therefore the purpose of this study was to both develop a new, custom-designed, event detection algorithm and compare its performance with four previously tested algorithms at higher running speeds. Kinematic and force data were collected on twenty runners during overground running at 5.6m/s. The five algorithms were then implemented and estimated times for footstrike, toe-off and contact time were compared to ground reaction force data. There were large differences in the performance of each algorithm. The custom-designed algorithm provided the most accurate estimation of footstrike (True Error 1.2 ± 17.1 ms) and contact time (True Error 3.5 ± 18.2 ms). Compared to the other tested algorithms, the custom-designed algorithm provided an accurate estimation of footstrike and toe-off across different footstrike patterns. The custom-designed algorithm provides a simple but effective method to accurately estimate footstrike, toe-off and contact time from kinematic data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A toy model for the yield of a tamped fission bomb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, B. Cameron

2018-02-01

A simple expression is developed for estimating the yield of a tamped fission bomb, that is, a basic nuclear weapon comprising a fissile core jacketed by a surrounding neutron-reflecting tamper. This expression is based on modeling the nuclear chain reaction as a geometric progression in combination with a previously published expression for the threshold-criticality condition for such a core. The derivation is especially straightforward, as it requires no knowledge of diffusion theory and should be accessible to students of both physics and policy. The calculation can be set up as a single page spreadsheet. Application to the Little Boy and Fat Man bombs of World War II gives results in reasonable accord with published yield estimates for these weapons.

Quantifying uncertainty in carbon and nutrient pools of coarse woody debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

See, C. R.; Campbell, J. L.; Fraver, S.; Domke, G. M.; Harmon, M. E.; Knoepp, J. D.; Woodall, C. W.

2016-12-01

Woody detritus constitutes a major pool of both carbon and nutrients in forested ecosystems. Estimating coarse wood stocks relies on many assumptions, even when full surveys are conducted. Researchers rarely report error in coarse wood pool estimates, despite the importance to ecosystem budgets and modelling efforts. To date, no study has attempted a comprehensive assessment of error rates and uncertainty inherent in the estimation of this pool. Here, we use Monte Carlo analysis to propagate the error associated with the major sources of uncertainty present in the calculation of coarse wood carbon and nutrient (i.e., N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na) pools. We also evaluate individual sources of error to identify the importance of each source of uncertainty in our estimates. We quantify sampling error by comparing the three most common field methods used to survey coarse wood (two transect methods and a whole-plot survey). We quantify the measurement error associated with length and diameter measurement, and technician error in species identification and decay class using plots surveyed by multiple technicians. We use previously published values of model error for the four most common methods of volume estimation: Smalian's, conical frustum, conic paraboloid, and average-of-ends. We also use previously published values for error in the collapse ratio (cross-sectional height/width) of decayed logs that serves as a surrogate for the volume remaining. We consider sampling error in chemical concentration and density for all decay classes, using distributions from both published and unpublished studies. Analytical uncertainty is calculated using standard reference plant material from the National Institute of Standards. Our results suggest that technician error in decay classification can have a large effect on uncertainty, since many of the error distributions included in the calculation (e.g. density, chemical concentration, volume-model selection, collapse ratio) are decay-class specific.

Indispensable finite time corrections for Fokker-Planck equations from time series data.

PubMed

Ragwitz, M; Kantz, H

2001-12-17

The reconstruction of Fokker-Planck equations from observed time series data suffers strongly from finite sampling rates. We show that previously published results are degraded considerably by such effects. We present correction terms which yield a robust estimation of the diffusion terms, together with a novel method for one-dimensional problems. We apply these methods to time series data of local surface wind velocities, where the dependence of the diffusion constant on the state variable shows a different behavior than previously suggested.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E

2017-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011-2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs.

Cost and Cost-Effectiveness Assessments of Newborn Screening for Critical Congenital Heart Disease Using Pulse Oximetry: A Review

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Peterson, Cora; Abouk, Rahi; Glidewell, Jill; Oster, Matthew E.

2018-01-01

Screening newborns for critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) using pulse oximetry is recommended to allow for the prompt diagnosis and prevention of life-threatening crises. The present review summarizes and critiques six previously published estimates of the costs or cost-effectiveness of CCHD screening from the United Kingdom, United States, and China. Several elements that affect CCHD screening costs were assessed in varying numbers of studies, including screening staff time, instrumentation, and consumables, as well as costs of diagnosis and treatment. A previous US study that used conservative assumptions suggested that CCHD screening is likely to be considered cost-effective from the healthcare sector perspective. Newly available estimates of avoided infant CCHD deaths in several US states that implemented mandatory CCHD screening policies during 2011–2013 suggest a substantially larger reduction in deaths than was projected in the previous US cost-effectiveness analysis. Taking into account these new estimates, we estimate that cost per life-year gained could be as low as USD 12,000. However, that estimate does not take into account future costs of health care and education for surviving children with CCHD nor the costs incurred by health departments to support and monitor CCHD screening policies and programs. PMID:29376140

Concerning KAr dating of a basalt flow from the Tahoe-Tioga interglaciation, Sawmill Canyon, southeastern Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalrymple, G.B.; Burke, R.M.; Birkeland, P.W.

1982-01-01

New KAr ages for a basalt flow interbedded with Tahoe and Tioga tills in Sawmill Canyon, southeastern Sierra Nevada, slightly refine previously published ages for the flow and provide an estimate of 53,000 ± 44,000 yr for the Tahoe-Tioga interglaciation.

Competing risk bias was common in Kaplan-Meier risk estimates published in prominent medical journals.

PubMed

van Walraven, Carl; McAlister, Finlay A

2016-01-01

Risk estimates from Kaplan-Meier curves are well known to medical researchers, reviewers, and editors. In this study, we determined the proportion of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in prominent medical journals that are potentially biased because of competing events ("competing risk bias"). We randomly selected 100 studies that had at least one Kaplan-Meier analysis and were recently published in prominent medical journals. Susceptibility to competing risk bias was determined by examining the outcome and potential competing events. In susceptible studies, bias was quantified using a previously validated prediction model when the number of outcomes and competing events were given. Forty-six studies (46%) contained Kaplan-Meier analyses susceptible to competing risk bias. Sixteen studies (34.8%) susceptible to competing risk cited the number of outcomes and competing events; in six of these studies (6/16, 37.5%), the outcome risk from the Kaplan-Meier estimate (relative to the true risk) was biased upward by 10% or more. Almost half of Kaplan-Meier analyses published in medical journals are susceptible to competing risk bias and may overestimate event risk. This bias was found to be quantitatively important in a third of such studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Habitat suitability criteria via parametric distributions: estimation, model selection and uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Som, Nicholas A.; Goodman, Damon H.; Perry, Russell W.; Hardy, Thomas B.

2016-01-01

Previous methods for constructing univariate habitat suitability criteria (HSC) curves have ranged from professional judgement to kernel-smoothed density functions or combinations thereof. We present a new method of generating HSC curves that applies probability density functions as the mathematical representation of the curves. Compared with previous approaches, benefits of our method include (1) estimation of probability density function parameters directly from raw data, (2) quantitative methods for selecting among several candidate probability density functions, and (3) concise methods for expressing estimation uncertainty in the HSC curves. We demonstrate our method with a thorough example using data collected on the depth of water used by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) in the Klamath River of northern California and southern Oregon. All R code needed to implement our example is provided in the appendix. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Preliminary estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 2010-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.; Stone, Wesley W.

2013-01-01

This report provides preliminary estimates of annual agricultural use of 374 pesticide compounds in counties of the conterminous United States in 2010 and 2011, compiled by means of methods described in Thelin and Stone (2013). U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) county-level data for harvested-crop acreage were used in conjunction with proprietary Crop Reporting District (CRD)-level pesticide-use data to estimate county-level pesticide use. Estimated pesticide use (EPest) values were calculated with both the EPest-high and EPest-low methods. The distinction between the EPest-high method and the EPest-low method is that there are more counties with estimated pesticide use for EPest-high compared to EPest-low, owing to differing assumptions about missing survey data (Thelin and Stone, 2013). Preliminary estimates in this report will be revised upon availability of updated crop acreages in the 2012 Agricultural Census, to be published by the USDA in 2014. In addition, estimates for 2008 and 2009 previously published by Stone (2013) will be updated subsequent to the 2012 Agricultural Census release. Estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use are provided as downloadable, tab-delimited files, which are organized by compound, year, state Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code, county FIPS code, and kg (amount in kilograms).

Predicting the chance of vaginal delivery after one cesarean section: validation and elaboration of a published prediction model.

PubMed

Fagerberg, Marie C; Maršál, Karel; Källén, Karin

2015-05-01

We aimed to validate a widely used US prediction model for vaginal birth after cesarean (Grobman et al. [8]) and modify it to suit Swedish conditions. Women having experienced one cesarean section and at least one subsequent delivery (n=49,472) in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry 1992-2011 were randomly divided into two data sets. In the development data set, variables associated with successful trial of labor were identified using multiple logistic regression. The predictive ability of the estimates previously published by Grobman et al., and of our modified and new estimates, respectively, was then evaluated using the validation data set. The accuracy of the models for prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean was measured by area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. For maternal age, body mass index, prior vaginal delivery, and prior labor arrest, the odds ratio estimates for vaginal birth after cesarean were similar to those previously published. The prediction accuracy increased when information on indication for the previous cesarean section was added (from area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.69-0.71), and increased further when maternal height and delivery unit cesarean section rates were included (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve=0.74). The correlation between the individual predicted vaginal birth after cesarean probability and the observed trial of labor success rate was high in all the respective predicted probability decentiles. Customization of prediction models for vaginal birth after cesarean is of considerable value. Choosing relevant indicators for a Swedish setting made it possible to achieve excellent prediction accuracy for success in trial of labor after cesarean. During the delicate process of counseling about preferred delivery mode after one cesarean section, considering the results of our study may facilitate the choice between a trial of labor or an elective repeat cesarean section. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Refining previous estimates of groundwater outflows from the Medina/Diversion Lake system, San Antonio area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slattery, Richard N.; Asquith, William H.; Gordon, John D.

2017-02-15

IntroductionIn 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio Water System, began a study to refine previously derived estimates of groundwater outflows from Medina and Diversion Lakes in south-central Texas near San Antonio. When full, Medina and Diversion Lakes (hereinafter referred to as the Medina/Diversion Lake system) (fig. 1) impound approximately 255,000 acre-feet and 2,555 acre-feet of water, respectively.Most recharge to the Edwards aquifer occurs as seepage from streams as they cross the outcrop (recharge zone) of the aquifer (Slattery and Miller, 2017). Groundwater outflows from the Medina/Diversion Lake system have also long been recognized as a potentially important additional source of recharge. Puente (1978) published methods for estimating monthly and annual estimates of the potential recharge to the Edwards aquifer from the Medina/Diversion Lake system. During October 1995–September 1996, the USGS conducted a study to better define short-term rates of recharge and to reduce the error and uncertainty associated with estimates of monthly recharge from the Medina/Diversion Lake system (Lambert and others, 2000). As a followup to that study, Slattery and Miller (2017) published estimates of groundwater outflows from detailed water budgets for the Medina/Diversion Lake system during 1955–1964, 1995–1996, and 2001–2002. The water budgets were compiled for selected periods during which time the water-budget components were inferred to be relatively stable and the influence of precipitation, stormwater runoff, and changes in storage were presumably minimal. Linear regression analysis techniques were used by Slattery and Miller (2017) to assess the relation between the stage in Medina Lake and groundwater outflows from the Medina/Diversion Lake system.

Estimation of multiple accelerated motions using chirp-Fourier transform and clustering.

PubMed

Alexiadis, Dimitrios S; Sergiadis, George D

2007-01-01

Motion estimation in the spatiotemporal domain has been extensively studied and many methodologies have been proposed, which, however, cannot handle both time-varying and multiple motions. Extending previously published ideas, we present an efficient method for estimating multiple, linearly time-varying motions. It is shown that the estimation of accelerated motions is equivalent to the parameter estimation of superpositioned chirp signals. From this viewpoint, one can exploit established signal processing tools such as the chirp-Fourier transform. It is shown that accelerated motion results in energy concentration along planes in the 4-D space: spatial frequencies-temporal frequency-chirp rate. Using fuzzy c-planes clustering, we estimate the plane/motion parameters. The effectiveness of our method is verified on both synthetic as well as real sequences and its advantages are highlighted.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances.

PubMed

Gil, Manuel

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error.

Fast and accurate estimation of the covariance between pairwise maximum likelihood distances

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Pairwise evolutionary distances are a model-based summary statistic for a set of molecular sequences. They represent the leaf-to-leaf path lengths of the underlying phylogenetic tree. Estimates of pairwise distances with overlapping paths covary because of shared mutation events. It is desirable to take these covariance structure into account to increase precision in any process that compares or combines distances. This paper introduces a fast estimator for the covariance of two pairwise maximum likelihood distances, estimated under general Markov models. The estimator is based on a conjecture (going back to Nei & Jin, 1989) which links the covariance to path lengths. It is proven here under a simple symmetric substitution model. A simulation shows that the estimator outperforms previously published ones in terms of the mean squared error. PMID:25279263

Recurrence of preterm birth and perinatal mortality in northern Tanzania: registry-based cohort study.

PubMed

Mahande, Michael J; Daltveit, Anne K; Obure, Joseph; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Masenga, Gileard; Manongi, Rachel; Lie, Rolv T

2013-08-01

To estimate the recurrence risk of preterm delivery and estimate the perinatal mortality in repeated preterm deliveries. Prospective study in Tanzania of 18 176 women who delivered a singleton between 2000 and 2008 at KCMC hospital. The women were followed up to 2010 for consecutive births. A total of 3359 women were identified with a total of 3867 subsequent deliveries in the follow-up period. Recurrence risk of preterm birth and perinatal mortality was estimated using log-binomial regression and adjusted for potential confounders. For women with a previous preterm birth, the risk of preterm birth in a subsequent pregnancy was 17%. This recurrence risk was estimated to be 2.7-fold (95% CI: 2.1-3.4) of the risk of women with a previous term birth. The perinatal mortality of babies in a second preterm birth of the same woman was 15%. Babies born at term who had an older sibling that was born preterm had a perinatal mortality of 10%. Babies born at term who had an older sibling who was also born at term had a perinatal mortality of 1.7%. Previous delivery of a preterm infant is a strong predictor of future preterm births in Tanzania. Previous or repeated preterm births increase the risk of perinatal death substantially in the subsequent pregnancy. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimating the energetic cost of feeding excess dietary nitrogen to dairy cows.

PubMed

Reed, K F; Bonfá, H C; Dijkstra, J; Casper, D P; Kebreab, E

2017-09-01

Feeding N in excess of requirement could require the use of additional energy to metabolize excess protein, and to synthesize and excrete urea; however, the amount and fate of this energy is unknown. Little progress has been made on this topic in recent decades, so an extension of work published in 1970 was conducted to quantify the effect of excess N on ruminant energetics. In part 1 of this study, the results of previous work were replicated using a simple linear regression to estimate the effect of excess N on energy balance. In part 2, mixed model methodology and a larger data set were used to improve upon the previously reported linear regression methods. In part 3, heat production, retained energy, and milk energy replaced the composite energy balance variable previously proposed as the dependent variable to narrow the effect of excess N. In addition, rumen degradable and undegradable protein intakes were estimated using table values and included as covariates in part 3. Excess N had opposite and approximately equal effects on heat production (+4.1 to +7.6 kcal/g of excess N) and retained energy (-4.2 to -6.6 kcal/g of excess N) but had a larger negative effect on milk gross energy (-52 to -68 kcal/g of excess N). The results suggest that feeding excess N increases heat production, but more investigation is required to determine why excess N has such a large effect on milk gross energy production. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Ozark Forest Litter Variability Through a Synthesis of Accumulation Rates and Fire Events

Treesearch

Michael C. Stambaugh; Richard P. Guyette; Keith W. Grabner; Jeremy Kolaks

2006-01-01

Measuring success of fuels management is improved by understanding rates of litter accumulation and decay in relation to disturbance events. Despite the broad ecological importance of litter, little is known about the parameters of accumulation and decay rates in Ozark forests. Previously published estimates were used to derive accumulation rates and combined litter...

Permutation Tests of Hierarchical Cluster Analyses of Carrion Communities and Their Potential Use in Forensic Entomology.

PubMed

van der Ham, Joris L

2016-05-19

Forensic entomologists can use carrion communities' ecological succession data to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI). Permutation tests of hierarchical cluster analyses of these data provide a conceptual method to estimate part of the PMI, the post-colonization interval (post-CI). This multivariate approach produces a baseline of statistically distinct clusters that reflect changes in the carrion community composition during the decomposition process. Carrion community samples of unknown post-CIs are compared with these baseline clusters to estimate the post-CI. In this short communication, I use data from previously published studies to demonstrate the conceptual feasibility of this multivariate approach. Analyses of these data produce series of significantly distinct clusters, which represent carrion communities during 1- to 20-day periods of the decomposition process. For 33 carrion community samples, collected over an 11-day period, this approach correctly estimated the post-CI within an average range of 3.1 days. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Revisiting the Table 2 fallacy: A motivating example examining preeclampsia and preterm birth.

PubMed

Bandoli, Gretchen; Palmsten, Kristin; Chambers, Christina D; Jelliffe-Pawlowski, Laura L; Baer, Rebecca J; Thompson, Caroline A

2018-05-21

A "Table Fallacy," as coined by Westreich and Greenland, reports multiple adjusted effect estimates from a single model. This practice, which remains common in published literature, can be problematic when different types of effect estimates are presented together in a single table. The purpose of this paper is to quantitatively illustrate this potential for misinterpretation with an example estimating the effects of preeclampsia on preterm birth. We analysed a retrospective population-based cohort of 2 963 888 singleton births in California between 2007 and 2012. We performed a modified Poisson regression to calculate the total effect of preeclampsia on the risk of PTB, adjusting for previous preterm birth. pregnancy alcohol abuse, maternal education, and maternal socio-demographic factors (Model 1). In subsequent models, we report the total effects of previous preterm birth, alcohol abuse, and education on the risk of PTB, comparing and contrasting the controlled direct effects, total effects, and confounded effect estimates, resulting from Model 1. The effect estimate for previous preterm birth (a controlled direct effect in Model 1) increased 10% when estimated as a total effect. The risk ratio for alcohol abuse, biased due to an uncontrolled confounder in Model 1, was reduced by 23% when adjusted for drug abuse. The risk ratio for maternal education, solely a predictor of the outcome, was essentially unchanged. Reporting multiple effect estimates from a single model may lead to misinterpretation and lack of reproducibility. This example highlights the need for careful consideration of the types of effects estimated in statistical models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Effect of a Mars Mission on Chromosome Damage in the Blood Lymphocytes of Astronauts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

George, Kerry A.; Durante, M.; Cucinnotta, F. A.

2006-01-01

The radiation environment encountered during a manned mission to Mars will lead to significant elevation of biological damage in astronauts. Here we present estimates of the increased frequencies of chromosome aberrations in the peripheral blood lymphocytes of astronauts after a hypothetical Mars mission using radiation dose estimations and lymphocyte biology. Results will incorporate previously published data on in vivo induced chromosome damage in the blood lymphocytes of crewmembers after ISS and Mir missions, along with recent findings on the time dependant decay of chromosome aberrations after space flight.

Precision Timing of PSR J0437-4715: An Accurate Pulsar Distance, a High Pulsar Mass, and a Limit on the Variation of Newton's Gravitational Constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verbiest, J. P. W.; Bailes, M.; van Straten, W.; Hobbs, G. B.; Edwards, R. T.; Manchester, R. N.; Bhat, N. D. R.; Sarkissian, J. M.; Jacoby, B. A.; Kulkarni, S. R.

2008-05-01

Analysis of 10 years of high-precision timing data on the millisecond pulsar PSR J0437-4715 has resulted in a model-independent kinematic distance based on an apparent orbital period derivative, dot Pb , determined at the 1.5% level of precision (Dk = 157.0 +/- 2.4 pc), making it one of the most accurate stellar distance estimates published to date. The discrepancy between this measurement and a previously published parallax distance estimate is attributed to errors in the DE200 solar system ephemerides. The precise measurement of dot Pb allows a limit on the variation of Newton's gravitational constant, |Ġ/G| <= 23 × 10-12 yr-1. We also constrain any anomalous acceleration along the line of sight to the pulsar to |a⊙/c| <= 1.5 × 10-18 s-1 at 95% confidence, and derive a pulsar mass, mpsr = 1.76 +/- 0.20 M⊙, one of the highest estimates so far obtained.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mead, H; St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, Memphis, TN; Brady, S

Purpose: To discover if a previously published methodology for estimating patient-specific organ dose in a pediatric population (5–55kg) is translatable to the adult sized patient population (> 55 kg). Methods: An adult male anthropomorphic phantom was scanned with metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) dosimeters placed at 23 organ locations in the chest and abdominopelvic regions to determine absolute organ dose. Organ-dose-to-SSDE correlation factors were developed by dividing individual phantom organ doses by SSDE of the phantom; where SSDE was calculated at the center of the scan volume of the chest and abdomen/pelvis separately. Organ dose correlation factors developedmore » in phantom were multiplied by 28 chest and 22 abdominopelvic patient SSDE values to estimate organ dose. The median patient weight from the CT examinations was 68.9 kg (range 57–87 kg) and median age was 17 years (range 13–28 years). Calculated organ dose estimates were compared to published Monte Carlo simulated patient and phantom results. Results: Organ-dose-to-SSDE correlation was determined for a total of 23 organs in the chest and abdominopelvic regions. For organs fully covered by the scan volume, correlation in the chest (median 1.3; range 1.1–1.5) and abdominopelvic (median 0.9; range 0.7–1.0) was 1.0 ± 10%. For organs that extended beyond the scan volume (i.e. skin bone marrow and bone surface) correlation was determined to be a median of 0.3 (range 0.1–0.4). Calculated patient organ dose using patient SSDE agreed to better than 6% (chest) and 15% (abdominopelvic) to published values. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that our previous published methodology for calculating organ dose using patient-specific SSDE for the chest and abdominopelvic regions is translatable to adult sized patients for organs fully covered by the scan volume.« less

Determining the Best Method for Estimating the Observed Level of Maximum Detrainment Based on Radar Reflectivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carletta, Nicholas D.; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Starzec, Mariusz

Convective mass transport is the transport of mass from near the surface up to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) by a deep convective updraft. This transport can alter the chemical makeup and water vapor balance of the UTLS, which affects cloud formation and the radiative properties of the atmosphere. It is therefore important to understand the exact altitudes at which mass is detrained from convection. The purpose of this study was to improve upon previously published methodologies for estimating the level of maximum detrainment (LMD) within convection using data from a single ground-based radar. Four methods were usedmore » to identify the LMD and validated against dual-Doppler derived vertical mass divergence fields for six cases with a variety of storm types. The best method for locating the LMD was determined to be the method that used a reflectivity texture technique to determine convective cores and a multi-layer echo identification to determine anvil locations. Although an improvement over previously published methods, the new methodology still produced unreliable results in certain regimes. The methodology worked best when applied to mature updrafts, as the anvil needs time to grow to a detectable size. Thus, radar reflectivity is found to be valuable in estimating the LMD, but storm maturity must also be considered for best results.« less

Assessment of source-specific health effects associated with an unknown number of major sources of multiple air pollutants: a unified Bayesian approach.

PubMed

Park, Eun Sug; Hopke, Philip K; Oh, Man-Suk; Symanski, Elaine; Han, Daikwon; Spiegelman, Clifford H

2014-07-01

There has been increasing interest in assessing health effects associated with multiple air pollutants emitted by specific sources. A major difficulty with achieving this goal is that the pollution source profiles are unknown and source-specific exposures cannot be measured directly; rather, they need to be estimated by decomposing ambient measurements of multiple air pollutants. This estimation process, called multivariate receptor modeling, is challenging because of the unknown number of sources and unknown identifiability conditions (model uncertainty). The uncertainty in source-specific exposures (source contributions) as well as uncertainty in the number of major pollution sources and identifiability conditions have been largely ignored in previous studies. A multipollutant approach that can deal with model uncertainty in multivariate receptor models while simultaneously accounting for parameter uncertainty in estimated source-specific exposures in assessment of source-specific health effects is presented in this paper. The methods are applied to daily ambient air measurements of the chemical composition of fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), weather data, and counts of cardiovascular deaths from 1995 to 1997 for Phoenix, AZ, USA. Our approach for evaluating source-specific health effects yields not only estimates of source contributions along with their uncertainties and associated health effects estimates but also estimates of model uncertainty (posterior model probabilities) that have been ignored in previous studies. The results from our methods agreed in general with those from the previously conducted workshop/studies on the source apportionment of PM health effects in terms of number of major contributing sources, estimated source profiles, and contributions. However, some of the adverse source-specific health effects identified in the previous studies were not statistically significant in our analysis, which probably resulted because we incorporated parameter uncertainty in estimated source contributions that has been ignored in the previous studies into the estimation of health effects parameters. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hygiene and health: systematic review of handwashing practices worldwide and update of health effects.

PubMed

Freeman, Matthew C; Stocks, Meredith E; Cumming, Oliver; Jeandron, Aurelie; Higgins, Julian P T; Wolf, Jennyfer; Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Bonjour, Sophie; Hunter, Paul R; Fewtrell, Lorna; Curtis, Valerie

2014-08-01

To estimate the global prevalence of handwashing with soap and derive a pooled estimate of the effect of hygiene on diarrhoeal diseases, based on a systematic search of the literature. Studies with data on observed rates of handwashing with soap published between 1990 and August 2013 were identified from a systematic search of PubMed, Embase and ISI Web of Knowledge. A separate search was conducted for studies on the effect of hygiene on diarrhoeal disease that included randomised controlled trials, quasi-randomised trials with control group, observational studies using matching techniques and observational studies with a control group where the intervention was well defined. The search used Cochrane Library, Global Health, BIOSIS, PubMed, and Embase databases supplemented with reference lists from previously published systematic reviews to identify studies published between 1970 and August 2013. Results were combined using multilevel modelling for handwashing prevalence and meta-regression for risk estimates. From the 42 studies reporting handwashing prevalence we estimate that approximately 19% of the world population washes hands with soap after contact with excreta (i.e. use of a sanitation facility or contact with children's excreta). Meta-regression of risk estimates suggests that handwashing reduces the risk of diarrhoeal disease by 40% (risk ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.53-0.68); however, when we included an adjustment for unblinded studies, the effect estimate was reduced to 23% (risk ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.32-1.86). Our results show that handwashing after contact with excreta is poorly practiced globally, despite the likely positive health benefits. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sequenza: allele-specific copy number and mutation profiles from tumor sequencing data.

PubMed

Favero, F; Joshi, T; Marquard, A M; Birkbak, N J; Krzystanek, M; Li, Q; Szallasi, Z; Eklund, A C

2015-01-01

Exome or whole-genome deep sequencing of tumor DNA along with paired normal DNA can potentially provide a detailed picture of the somatic mutations that characterize the tumor. However, analysis of such sequence data can be complicated by the presence of normal cells in the tumor specimen, by intratumor heterogeneity, and by the sheer size of the raw data. In particular, determination of copy number variations from exome sequencing data alone has proven difficult; thus, single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) arrays have often been used for this task. Recently, algorithms to estimate absolute, but not allele-specific, copy number profiles from tumor sequencing data have been described. We developed Sequenza, a software package that uses paired tumor-normal DNA sequencing data to estimate tumor cellularity and ploidy, and to calculate allele-specific copy number profiles and mutation profiles. We applied Sequenza, as well as two previously published algorithms, to exome sequence data from 30 tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We assessed the performance of these algorithms by comparing their results with those generated using matched SNP arrays and processed by the allele-specific copy number analysis of tumors (ASCAT) algorithm. Comparison between Sequenza/exome and SNP/ASCAT revealed strong correlation in cellularity (Pearson's r = 0.90) and ploidy estimates (r = 0.42, or r = 0.94 after manual inspecting alternative solutions). This performance was noticeably superior to previously published algorithms. In addition, in artificial data simulating normal-tumor admixtures, Sequenza detected the correct ploidy in samples with tumor content as low as 30%. The agreement between Sequenza and SNP array-based copy number profiles suggests that exome sequencing alone is sufficient not only for identifying small scale mutations but also for estimating cellularity and inferring DNA copy number aberrations. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology.

An emperor penguin population estimate: the first global, synoptic survey of a species from space.

PubMed

Fretwell, Peter T; Larue, Michelle A; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J; Fleming, Andrew H; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N

2012-01-01

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm.We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ~238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000-175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ~595,000 adult birds.There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research.

An Emperor Penguin Population Estimate: The First Global, Synoptic Survey of a Species from Space

PubMed Central

Fretwell, Peter T.; LaRue, Michelle A.; Morin, Paul; Kooyman, Gerald L.; Wienecke, Barbara; Ratcliffe, Norman; Fox, Adrian J.; Fleming, Andrew H.; Porter, Claire; Trathan, Phil N.

2012-01-01

Our aim was to estimate the population of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes fosteri) using a single synoptic survey. We examined the whole continental coastline of Antarctica using a combination of medium resolution and Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery to identify emperor penguin colony locations. Where colonies were identified, VHR imagery was obtained in the 2009 breeding season. The remotely-sensed images were then analysed using a supervised classification method to separate penguins from snow, shadow and guano. Actual counts of penguins from eleven ground truthing sites were used to convert these classified areas into numbers of penguins using a robust regression algorithm. We found four new colonies and confirmed the location of three previously suspected sites giving a total number of emperor penguin breeding colonies of 46. We estimated the breeding population of emperor penguins at each colony during 2009 and provide a population estimate of ∼238,000 breeding pairs (compared with the last previously published count of 135,000–175,000 pairs). Based on published values of the relationship between breeders and non-breeders, this translates to a total population of ∼595,000 adult birds. There is a growing consensus in the literature that global and regional emperor penguin populations will be affected by changing climate, a driver thought to be critical to their future survival. However, a complete understanding is severely limited by the lack of detailed knowledge about much of their ecology, and importantly a poor understanding of their total breeding population. To address the second of these issues, our work now provides a comprehensive estimate of the total breeding population that can be used in future population models and will provide a baseline for long-term research. PMID:22514609

Journal: A Review of Some Tracer-Test Design Equations for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Determination of necessary tracer mass, initial sample-collection time, and subsequent sample-collection frequency are the three most difficult aspects to estimate for a proposed tracer test prior to conducting the tracer test. To facilitate tracer-mass estimation, 33 mass-estimation equations are reviewed here, 32 of which were evaluated using previously published tracer-test design examination parameters. Comparison of the results produced a wide range of estimated tracer mass, but no means is available by which one equation may be reasonably selected over the others. Each equation produces a simple approximation for tracer mass. Most of the equations are based primarily on estimates or measurements of discharge, transport distance, and suspected transport times. Although the basic field parameters commonly employed are appropriate for estimating tracer mass, the 33 equations are problematic in that they were all probably based on the original developers' experience in a particular field area and not necessarily on measured hydraulic parameters or solute-transport theory. Suggested sampling frequencies are typically based primarily on probable transport distance, but with little regard to expected travel times. This too is problematic in that tends to result in false negatives or data aliasing. Simulations from the recently developed efficient hydrologic tracer-test design methodology (EHTD) were compared with those obtained from 32 of the 33 published tracer-

Height growth and site index curves for Douglas-fir on dry sites in the Willamette National Forest.

Treesearch

Joseph E Means; Mary E. Helm

1985-01-01

Equations and curves are presented for estimating height and site index of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) on hot, dry sites in the Willamette National Forest in western Oregon. The equations are based on the dissected stems of 27 trees. The curves differ from those previously published for Douglas-fir. Instructions are presented...

Land Application of Wastes: An Educational Program. Costing Land Application Systems - Module 10.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarkson, W. W.; And Others

This module expands on the concepts of cost estimation and comparison of costs among various treatment alternatives which were presented in a previous module. The need for useful published cost data is stressed. Criteria for selecting cost references are presented, and examples of charts and graphs from several of these are used in comparing land…

Timber resource statistics for the Tanana inventory unit, Alaska, 1971-75.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. Van Hees

1984-01-01

Statistics on forest area, total gross and net timber volumes, and annual net growth and mortality are presented for the 1971-75 timber inventory of the Tanana unit, Alaska. This report summarizes statistics previously published for the four inventory blocks of the unit: Fairbanks, Kantishna, Upper Tanana, and Wood-Salcha. Timberland area is estimated at 2.19 million...

Distance measures and optimization spaces in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Rode, Karyn D.; Budge, Suzanne M.; Thiemann, Gregory W.

2015-01-01

Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis has become an important method of diet estimation in ecology, especially marine ecology. Controlled feeding trials to validate the method and estimate the calibration coefficients necessary to account for differential metabolism of individual fatty acids have been conducted with several species from diverse taxa. However, research into potential refinements of the estimation method has been limited. We compared the performance of the original method of estimating diet composition with that of five variants based on different combinations of distance measures and calibration-coefficient transformations between prey and predator fatty acid signature spaces. Fatty acid signatures of pseudopredators were constructed using known diet mixtures of two prey data sets previously used to estimate the diets of polar bears Ursus maritimus and gray seals Halichoerus grypus, and their diets were then estimated using all six variants. In addition, previously published diets of Chukchi Sea polar bears were re-estimated using all six methods. Our findings reveal that the selection of an estimation method can meaningfully influence estimates of diet composition. Among the pseudopredator results, which allowed evaluation of bias and precision, differences in estimator performance were rarely large, and no one estimator was universally preferred, although estimators based on the Aitchison distance measure tended to have modestly superior properties compared to estimators based on the Kullback-Leibler distance measure. However, greater differences were observed among estimated polar bear diets, most likely due to differential estimator sensitivity to assumption violations. Our results, particularly the polar bear example, suggest that additional research into estimator performance and model diagnostics is warranted.

Mental retardation and prenatal methylmercury toxicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Trasande, L.; Schechter, C.B.; Haynes, K.A.

2006-03-15

Methylmercury (MeHg) is a developmental neurotoxicant; exposure results principally from consumption of seafood contaminated by mercury (Hg). In this analysis, the burden of mental retardation (MR) associated with methylmercury exposure in the 2000 U.S. birth cohort is estimated, and the portion of this burden attributable to mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants is identified. The aggregate loss in cognition associated with MeHg exposure in the 2000 U.S. birth cohort was estimated using two previously published dose-response models that relate increases in cord blood Hg concentrations with decrements in IQ. MeHg exposure was assumed not to be correlated with nativemore » cognitive ability. Previously published estimates were used to estimate economic costs of MR caused by MeHg. Downward shifts in IQ resulting from prenatal exposure to MeHg of anthropogenic origin are associated with 1,566 excess cases of MR annually (range: 376-14,293). This represents 3.2% of MR cases in the US (range: 0.8%-29.2%). The MR costs associated with decreases in IQ in these children amount to $2.0 billion/year (range: $0.5-17.9 billion). Hg from American power plants accounts for 231 of the excess MR cases year (range: 28-2,109), or 0.5% (range: 0.06%-4.3%) of all MR. These cases cost $289 million (range: $35 million-2.6 billion). Toxic injury to the fetal brain caused by Hg emitted from coal-fired power plants exacts a significant human and economic toll on American children.« less

Independent and combined analyses of sequences from all three genomic compartments converge on the root of flowering plant phylogeny

PubMed Central

Barkman, Todd J.; Chenery, Gordon; McNeal, Joel R.; Lyons-Weiler, James; Ellisens, Wayne J.; Moore, Gerry; Wolfe, Andrea D.; dePamphilis, Claude W.

2000-01-01

Plant phylogenetic estimates are most likely to be reliable when congruent evidence is obtained independently from the mitochondrial, plastid, and nuclear genomes with all methods of analysis. Here, results are presented from separate and combined genomic analyses of new and previously published data, including six and nine genes (8,911 bp and 12,010 bp, respectively) for different subsets of taxa that suggest Amborella + Nymphaeales (water lilies) are the first-branching angiosperm lineage. Before and after tree-independent noise reduction, most individual genomic compartments and methods of analysis estimated the Amborella + Nymphaeales basal topology with high support. Previous phylogenetic estimates placing Amborella alone as the first extant angiosperm branch may have been misled because of a series of specific problems with paralogy, suboptimal outgroups, long-branch taxa, and method dependence. Ancestral character state reconstructions differ between the two topologies and affect inferences about the features of early angiosperms. PMID:11069280

Using flow cytometry to estimate pollen DNA content: improved methodology and applications

PubMed Central

Kron, Paul; Husband, Brian C.

2012-01-01

Background and Aims Flow cytometry has been used to measure nuclear DNA content in pollen, mostly to understand pollen development and detect unreduced gametes. Published data have not always met the high-quality standards required for some applications, in part due to difficulties inherent in the extraction of nuclei. Here we describe a simple and relatively novel method for extracting pollen nuclei, involving the bursting of pollen through a nylon mesh, compare it with other methods and demonstrate its broad applicability and utility. Methods The method was tested across 80 species, 64 genera and 33 families, and the data were evaluated using established criteria for estimating genome size and analysing cell cycle. Filter bursting was directly compared with chopping in five species, yields were compared with published values for sonicated samples, and the method was applied by comparing genome size estimates for leaf and pollen nuclei in six species. Key Results Data quality met generally applied standards for estimating genome size in 81 % of species and the higher best practice standards for cell cycle analysis in 51 %. In 41 % of species we met the most stringent criterion of screening 10 000 pollen grains per sample. In direct comparison with two chopping techniques, our method produced better quality histograms with consistently higher nuclei yields, and yields were higher than previously published results for sonication. In three binucleate and three trinucleate species we found that pollen-based genome size estimates differed from leaf tissue estimates by 1·5 % or less when 1C pollen nuclei were used, while estimates from 2C generative nuclei differed from leaf estimates by up to 2·5 %. Conclusions The high success rate, ease of use and wide applicability of the filter bursting method show that this method can facilitate the use of pollen for estimating genome size and dramatically improve unreduced pollen production estimation with flow cytometry. PMID:22875815

An empirical examination of WISE/NEOWISE asteroid analysis and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myhrvold, Nathan

2017-10-01

Observations made by the WISE space telescope and subsequent analysis by the NEOWISE project represent the largest corpus of asteroid data to date, describing the diameter, albedo, and other properties of the ~164,000 asteroids in the collection. I present a critical reanalysis of the WISE observational data, and NEOWISE results published in numerous papers and in the JPL Planetary Data System (PDS). This analysis reveals shortcomings and a lack of clarity, both in the original analysis and in the presentation of results. The procedures used to generate NEOWISE results fall short of established thermal modelling standards. Rather than using a uniform protocol, 10 modelling methods were applied to 12 combinations of WISE band data. Over half the NEOWISE results are based on a single band of data. Most NEOWISE curve fits are poor quality, frequently missing many or all the data points. About 30% of the single-band results miss all the data; 43% of the results derived from the most common multiple-band combinations miss all the data in at least one band. The NEOWISE data processing procedures rely on inconsistent assumptions, and introduce bias by systematically discarding much of the original data. I show that error estimates for the WISE observational data have a true uncertainty factor of ~1.2 to 1.9 times larger than previously described, and that the error estimates do not fit a normal distribution. These issues call into question the validity of the NEOWISE Monte-Carlo error analysis. Comparing published NEOWISE diameters to published estimates using radar, occultation, or spacecraft measurements (ROS) reveals 150 for which the NEOWISE diameters were copied exactly from the ROS source. My findings show that the accuracy of diameter estimates for NEOWISE results depend heavily on the choice of data bands and model. Systematic errors in the diameter estimates are much larger than previously described. Systematic errors for diameters in the PDS range from -3% to +27%. Random errors range from -14% to +19% when using all four WISE bands, and from -45% to +74% in cases using only the W2 band. The results presented here show that much work remains to be done towards understanding asteroid data from WISE/NEOWISE.

Variance estimation when using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) with survival analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2016-12-30

Propensity score methods are used to reduce the effects of observed confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments or exposures. A popular method of using the propensity score is inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). When using this method, a weight is calculated for each subject that is equal to the inverse of the probability of receiving the treatment that was actually received. These weights are then incorporated into the analyses to minimize the effects of observed confounding. Previous research has found that these methods result in unbiased estimation when estimating the effect of treatment on survival outcomes. However, conventional methods of variance estimation were shown to result in biased estimates of standard error. In this study, we conducted an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations to examine different methods of variance estimation when using a weighted Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the effect of treatment. We considered three variance estimation methods: (i) a naïve model-based variance estimator; (ii) a robust sandwich-type variance estimator; and (iii) a bootstrap variance estimator. We considered estimation of both the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect in the treated. We found that the use of a bootstrap estimator resulted in approximately correct estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with the correct coverage rates. The other estimators resulted in biased estimates of standard errors and confidence intervals with incorrect coverage rates. Our simulations were informed by a case study examining the effect of statin prescribing on mortality. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A lower and more constrained estimate of climate sensitivity using updated observations and detailed radiative forcing time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.; Aldrin, M.; Holden, M.; Myhre, G.

2012-04-01

A key question in climate science is to quantify the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbation in the radiative forcing (RF). This sensitivity is often represented by the equilibrium climate sensitivity, but this quantity is poorly constrained with significant probabilities for high values. In this work the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based on observed near-surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time series. RF time series from pre-industrial times to 2010 for all main anthropogenic and natural forcing mechanisms are estimated and the cloud lifetime effect and the semi-direct effect, which are not RF mechanisms in a strict sense, are included in the analysis. The RF time series are linked to the observations of ocean heat content and temperature change through an energy balance model and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS from the data. The posterior mean of the ECS is 1.9˚C with 90% credible interval (C.I.) ranging from 1.2 to 2.9˚C, which is tighter than previously published estimates. Observational data up to and including year 2010 are used in this study. This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record in attempts to constrain the ECS. We show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS. If only data up to and including year 2000 are used in the analysis, the 90% C.I. is 1.4 to 10.6˚C with a pronounced heavy tail in line with previous estimates of ECS constrained by observations in the 20th century. Also the transient climate response (TCR) is estimated in this study. Using observational data up to and including year 2010 gives a 90% C.I. of 1.0 to 2.1˚C, while the 90% C.I. is significantly broader ranging from 1.1 to 3.4 ˚C if only data up to and including year 2000 is used.

Reassessment of HIV-1 Acute Phase Infectivity: Accounting for Heterogeneity and Study Design with Simulated Cohorts

PubMed Central

Bellan, Steve E.; Dushoff, Jonathan; Galvani, Alison P.; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2015-01-01

Background The infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase has been directly measured only once, from a retrospectively identified cohort of serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda. Analyses of this cohort underlie the widespread view that the acute phase is highly infectious, even more so than would be predicted from its elevated viral load, and that transmission occurring shortly after infection may therefore compromise interventions that rely on diagnosis and treatment, such as antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP). Here, we re-estimate the duration and relative infectivity of the acute phase, while accounting for several possible sources of bias in published estimates, including the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and unmeasured heterogeneity in risk. Methods and Findings We estimated acute phase infectivity using two approaches. First, we combined viral load trajectories and viral load-infectivity relationships to estimate infectivity trajectories over the course of infection, under the assumption that elevated acute phase infectivity is caused by elevated viral load alone. Second, we estimated the relative hazard of transmission during the acute phase versus the chronic phase (RHacute) and the acute phase duration (d acute) by fitting a couples transmission model to the Rakai retrospective cohort using approximate Bayesian computation. Our model fit the data well and accounted for characteristics overlooked by previous analyses, including individual heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility and the retrospective cohort's exclusion of couples that were recorded as serodiscordant only once before being censored by loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. Finally, we replicated two highly cited analyses of the Rakai data on simulated data to identify biases underlying the discrepancies between previous estimates and our own. From the Rakai data, we estimated RHacute = 5.3 (95% credibility interval [95% CrI]: 0.79–57) and d acute = 1.7 mo (95% CrI: 0.55–6.8). The wide credibility intervals reflect an inability to distinguish a long, mildly infectious acute phase from a short, highly infectious acute phase, given the 10-mo Rakai observation intervals. The total additional risk, measured as excess hazard-months attributable to the acute phase (EHMacute) can be estimated more precisely: EHMacute = (RHacute - 1) × d acute, and should be interpreted with respect to the 120 hazard-months generated by a constant untreated chronic phase infectivity over 10 y of infection. From the Rakai data, we estimated that EHMacute = 8.4 (95% CrI: -0.27 to 64). This estimate is considerably lower than previously published estimates, and consistent with our independent estimate from viral load trajectories, 5.6 (95% confidence interval: 3.3–9.1). We found that previous overestimates likely stemmed from failure to account for risk heterogeneity and bias resulting from the retrospective cohort study design. Our results reflect the interaction between the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and high (47%) rates of censorship amongst incident serodiscordant couples in the Rakai study due to loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. We estimated excess physiological infectivity during the acute phase from couples data, but not the proportion of transmission attributable to the acute phase, which would require data on the broader population's sexual network structure. Conclusions Previous EHMacute estimates relying on the Rakai retrospective cohort data range from 31 to 141. Our results indicate that these are substantial overestimates of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity, biased by unmodeled heterogeneity in transmission rates between couples and by inconsistent censoring. Elevated acute phase infectivity is therefore less likely to undermine TasP interventions than previously thought. Heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility may still play an important role in intervention success and deserves attention in future analyses PMID:25781323

Reassessment of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity: accounting for heterogeneity and study design with simulated cohorts.

PubMed

Bellan, Steve E; Dushoff, Jonathan; Galvani, Alison P; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

2015-03-01

The infectivity of the HIV-1 acute phase has been directly measured only once, from a retrospectively identified cohort of serodiscordant heterosexual couples in Rakai, Uganda. Analyses of this cohort underlie the widespread view that the acute phase is highly infectious, even more so than would be predicted from its elevated viral load, and that transmission occurring shortly after infection may therefore compromise interventions that rely on diagnosis and treatment, such as antiretroviral treatment as prevention (TasP). Here, we re-estimate the duration and relative infectivity of the acute phase, while accounting for several possible sources of bias in published estimates, including the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and unmeasured heterogeneity in risk. We estimated acute phase infectivity using two approaches. First, we combined viral load trajectories and viral load-infectivity relationships to estimate infectivity trajectories over the course of infection, under the assumption that elevated acute phase infectivity is caused by elevated viral load alone. Second, we estimated the relative hazard of transmission during the acute phase versus the chronic phase (RHacute) and the acute phase duration (dacute) by fitting a couples transmission model to the Rakai retrospective cohort using approximate Bayesian computation. Our model fit the data well and accounted for characteristics overlooked by previous analyses, including individual heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility and the retrospective cohort's exclusion of couples that were recorded as serodiscordant only once before being censored by loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. Finally, we replicated two highly cited analyses of the Rakai data on simulated data to identify biases underlying the discrepancies between previous estimates and our own. From the Rakai data, we estimated RHacute = 5.3 (95% credibility interval [95% CrI]: 0.79-57) and dacute = 1.7 mo (95% CrI: 0.55-6.8). The wide credibility intervals reflect an inability to distinguish a long, mildly infectious acute phase from a short, highly infectious acute phase, given the 10-mo Rakai observation intervals. The total additional risk, measured as excess hazard-months attributable to the acute phase (EHMacute) can be estimated more precisely: EHMacute = (RHacute - 1) × dacute, and should be interpreted with respect to the 120 hazard-months generated by a constant untreated chronic phase infectivity over 10 y of infection. From the Rakai data, we estimated that EHMacute = 8.4 (95% CrI: -0.27 to 64). This estimate is considerably lower than previously published estimates, and consistent with our independent estimate from viral load trajectories, 5.6 (95% confidence interval: 3.3-9.1). We found that previous overestimates likely stemmed from failure to account for risk heterogeneity and bias resulting from the retrospective cohort study design. Our results reflect the interaction between the retrospective cohort exclusion criteria and high (47%) rates of censorship amongst incident serodiscordant couples in the Rakai study due to loss to follow-up, couple dissolution, or study termination. We estimated excess physiological infectivity during the acute phase from couples data, but not the proportion of transmission attributable to the acute phase, which would require data on the broader population's sexual network structure. Previous EHMacute estimates relying on the Rakai retrospective cohort data range from 31 to 141. Our results indicate that these are substantial overestimates of HIV-1 acute phase infectivity, biased by unmodeled heterogeneity in transmission rates between couples and by inconsistent censoring. Elevated acute phase infectivity is therefore less likely to undermine TasP interventions than previously thought. Heterogeneity in infectiousness and susceptibility may still play an important role in intervention success and deserves attention in future analyses.

Energy in synthetic fertilizers and pesticides: Revisited. Final project report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhat, M.G.; English, B.C.; Turhollow, A.F.

1994-01-01

Agricultural chemicals that are derived from fossil-fuels are the major energy intensive inputs in agriculture. Growing scarcity of the world`s fossil resources stimulated research and development of energy-efficient technology for manufacturing these chemicals in the last decade. The purpose of this study is to revisit the energy requirements of major plant nutrients and pesticides. The data from manufacturers energy survey conducted by The Fertilizer Institute are used to estimate energy requirements of fertilizers. Energy estimates for pesticides are developed from consulting previously published literature. The impact of technical innovation in the fertilizer industry to US corn, cotton, soybean and wheatmore » producers is estimated in terms of energy-saving.« less

Carbohydrate intake, obesity, metabolic syndrome and cancer risk? A two-part systematic review and meta-analysis protocol to estimate attributability

PubMed Central

Sartorius, B; Sartorius, K; Aldous, C; Madiba, T E; Stefan, C; Noakes, T

2016-01-01

Introduction Linkages between carbohydrates, obesity and cancer continue to demonstrate conflicting results. Evidence suggests inconclusive direct linkages between carbohydrates and specific cancers. Conversely, obesity has been strongly linked to a wide range of cancers. The purpose of the study is to explore linkages between carbohydrate intake and cancer types using a two-step approach. First the study will evaluate the linkages between carbohydrate intake and obesity, potentially stratified by metabolic syndrome status. Second, the estimated attributable fraction of obesity ascribed to carbohydrate intake will be multiplied against obesity attributable fractions for cancer types to give estimated overall attributable fraction for carbohydrate versus cancer type. Methods and analysis We will perform a comprehensive search to identify all possible published and unpublished studies that have assessed risk factors for obesity including dietary carbohydrate intake. Scientific databases, namely PubMed MEDLINE, EMBASE, EBSCOhost and ISI Web of Science will be searched. Following study selection, paper/data acquisition, and data extraction and synthesis, we will appraise the quality of studies and risk of bias, as well as assess heterogeneity. Meta-weighted attributable fractions of obesity due to carbohydrate intake will be estimated after adjusting for other potential confounding factors (eg, physical inactivity, other dietary intake). Furthermore, previously published systematic reviews assessing the cancer-specific risk associated with obesity will also be drawn. These estimates will be linked with the attributability of carbohydrate intake in part 1 to estimate the cancer-specific burden that can be attributed to dietary carbohydrates. This systematic review protocol has been developed according to the ‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic review and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015’. Ethics and dissemination The current study will be based on published literature and data, and, as such, ethics approval is not required. The final results of this two part systematic review (plus multiplicative calculations) will be published in a relevant international peer-reviewed journal. Trial registration number PROSPERO CRD42015023257. PMID:26729382

Fission-track dating of pumice from the KBS Tuff, East Rudolf, Kenya

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hurford, A.J.; Gleadow, A.J.W.; Naeser, C.W.

1976-01-01

Fission-track dating of zircon separated from two pumice samples from the KBS Tuff in the Koobi Fora Formation, in Area 131, East Rudolf, Kenya, gives an age of 2.44??0.08 Myr for the eruption of the pumice. This result is compatible with the previously published K-Ar and 40Ar/ 39Ar age spectrum estimate of 2.61??0.26 Myr for the KBS Tuff in Area 105, but differs from the more recently published K-Ar date of 1.82??0.04 Myr for the KBS Tuff in Area 131. This study does not support the suggestion that pumice cobbles of different ages occur in the KBS Tuff. ?? 1976 Nature Publishing Group.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Tierney, Edward F; Burrows, Nilka R; Barker, Lawrence E; Beckles, Gloria L; Boyle, James P; Cadwell, Betsy L; Kirtland, Karen A; Thompson, Theodore J

2013-06-01

To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%-18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%-18.2%).

Burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic, literature-based update with risk-factor adjustment.

PubMed

Mogasale, Vittal; Maskery, Brian; Ochiai, R Leon; Lee, Jung Seok; Mogasale, Vijayalaxmi V; Ramani, Enusa; Kim, Young Eun; Park, Jin Kyung; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-10-01

No access to safe water is an important risk factor for typhoid fever, yet risk-level heterogeneity is unaccounted for in previous global burden estimates. Since WHO has recommended risk-based use of typhoid polysaccharide vaccine, we revisited the burden of typhoid fever in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) after adjusting for water-related risk. We estimated the typhoid disease burden from studies done in LMICs based on blood-culture-confirmed incidence rates applied to the 2010 population, after correcting for operational issues related to surveillance, limitations of diagnostic tests, and water-related risk. We derived incidence estimates, correction factors, and mortality estimates from systematic literature reviews. We did scenario analyses for risk factors, diagnostic sensitivity, and case fatality rates, accounting for the uncertainty in these estimates and we compared them with previous disease burden estimates. The estimated number of typhoid fever cases in LMICs in 2010 after adjusting for water-related risk was 11·9 million (95% CI 9·9-14·7) cases with 129 000 (75 000-208 000) deaths. By comparison, the estimated risk-unadjusted burden was 20·6 million (17·5-24·2) cases and 223 000 (131 000-344 000) deaths. Scenario analyses indicated that the risk-factor adjustment and updated diagnostic test correction factor derived from systematic literature reviews were the drivers of differences between the current estimate and past estimates. The risk-adjusted typhoid fever burden estimate was more conservative than previous estimates. However, by distinguishing the risk differences, it will allow assessment of the effect at the population level and will facilitate cost-effectiveness calculations for risk-based vaccination strategies for future typhoid conjugate vaccine. Copyright © 2014 Mogasale et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY-NC-SA. Published by .. All rights reserved.

Estimation after classification using lot quality assurance sampling: corrections for curtailed sampling with application to evaluating polio vaccination campaigns.

PubMed

Olives, Casey; Valadez, Joseph J; Pagano, Marcello

2014-03-01

To assess the bias incurred when curtailment of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is ignored, to present unbiased estimators, to consider the impact of cluster sampling by simulation and to apply our method to published polio immunization data from Nigeria. We present estimators of coverage when using two kinds of curtailed LQAS strategies: semicurtailed and curtailed. We study the proposed estimators with independent and clustered data using three field-tested LQAS designs for assessing polio vaccination coverage, with samples of size 60 and decision rules of 9, 21 and 33, and compare them to biased maximum likelihood estimators. Lastly, we present estimates of polio vaccination coverage from previously published data in 20 local government authorities (LGAs) from five Nigerian states. Simulations illustrate substantial bias if one ignores the curtailed sampling design. Proposed estimators show no bias. Clustering does not affect the bias of these estimators. Across simulations, standard errors show signs of inflation as clustering increases. Neither sampling strategy nor LQAS design influences estimates of polio vaccination coverage in 20 Nigerian LGAs. When coverage is low, semicurtailed LQAS strategies considerably reduces the sample size required to make a decision. Curtailed LQAS designs further reduce the sample size when coverage is high. Results presented dispel the misconception that curtailed LQAS data are unsuitable for estimation. These findings augment the utility of LQAS as a tool for monitoring vaccination efforts by demonstrating that unbiased estimation using curtailed designs is not only possible but these designs also reduce the sample size. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing assay agreement estimation for multiple left-censored data: a multiple imputation approach.

PubMed

Lapidus, Nathanael; Chevret, Sylvie; Resche-Rigon, Matthieu

2014-12-30

Agreement between two assays is usually based on the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), estimated from the means, standard deviations, and correlation coefficient of these assays. However, such data will often suffer from left-censoring because of lower limits of detection of these assays. To handle such data, we propose to extend a multiple imputation approach by chained equations (MICE) developed in a close setting of one left-censored assay. The performance of this two-step approach is compared with that of a previously published maximum likelihood estimation through a simulation study. Results show close estimates of the CCC by both methods, although the coverage is improved by our MICE proposal. An application to cytomegalovirus quantification data is provided. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza - a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models.

PubMed

Van Vlaenderen, Ilse; Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Nautrup, Barbara Poulsen

2013-01-22

Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm.

PubMed

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-01

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis with those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.

Sensitivity of NTCP parameter values against a change of dose calculation algorithm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brink, Carsten; Berg, Martin; Nielsen, Morten

2007-09-15

Optimization of radiation treatment planning requires estimations of the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). A number of models exist that estimate NTCP from a calculated dose distribution. Since different dose calculation algorithms use different approximations the dose distributions predicted for a given treatment will in general depend on the algorithm. The purpose of this work is to test whether the optimal NTCP parameter values change significantly when the dose calculation algorithm is changed. The treatment plans for 17 breast cancer patients have retrospectively been recalculated with a collapsed cone algorithm (CC) to compare the NTCP estimates for radiation pneumonitis withmore » those obtained from the clinically used pencil beam algorithm (PB). For the PB calculations the NTCP parameters were taken from previously published values for three different models. For the CC calculations the parameters were fitted to give the same NTCP as for the PB calculations. This paper demonstrates that significant shifts of the NTCP parameter values are observed for three models, comparable in magnitude to the uncertainties of the published parameter values. Thus, it is important to quote the applied dose calculation algorithm when reporting estimates of NTCP parameters in order to ensure correct use of the models.« less

The HIV care cascade in Switzerland: reaching the UNAIDS/WHO targets for patients diagnosed with HIV.

PubMed

Kohler, Philipp; Schmidt, Axel J; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Calmy, Alexandra; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Ledergerber, Bruno; Vernazza, Pietro

2015-11-28

To describe the HIV care cascade for Switzerland in the year 2012. Six levels were defined: (i) HIV-infected, (ii) HIV-diagnosed, (iii) linked to care, (iv) retained in care, (v) on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and (vi) with suppressed viral load. We used data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) complemented by a nationwide survey among SHCS physicians to estimate the number of HIV-patients not registered in the cohort. We also used Swiss ART sales data to estimate the number of patients treated outside the SHCS network. Based on the number of patients retained in care, we inferred the estimates for levels (i) to (iii) from previously published data. We estimate that (i) 15 200 HIV-infected individuals lived in Switzerland in 2012 (margins of uncertainty, 13 400-19 300). Of those, (ii) 12 300 (81%) were diagnosed, (iii) 12 200 (80%) linked, and (iv) 11 900 (79%) retained in care. Broadly based on SHCS network data, (v) 10 800 (71%) patients were receiving ART, and (vi) 10 400 (68%) had suppressed (<200 copies/ml) viral loads. The vast majority (95%) of patients retained in care were followed within the SHCS network, with 76% registered in the cohort. Our estimate for HIV-infected individuals in Switzerland is substantially lower than previously reported, halving previous national HIV prevalence estimates to 0.2%. In Switzerland in 2012, 91% of patients in care were receiving ART, and 96% of patients on ART had suppressed viral load, meeting recent UNAIDS/WHO targets.

The internal dosimetry of Rubidium-82 based on dynamic PET/CT imaging in humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, Chad R.

Rubidium-82 (Rb-82) is a useful blood flow tracer, and has become important in recent years due to the shutdown of the Chalk River reactor. Published effective dose estimates for Rb-82 vary widely, and as yet no comprehensive study in man has been conducted with PET/CT, and no effective dose estimates for Rb-82 during pharmacological stress testing has been published. 30 subjects were recruited for rest, and 25 subjects were recruited for stress. The subjects consisted of both cardiac patients and normal subjects. For rest, a total of 283 organs were measured across 60 scans. For stress, a total of 171 organs were measured across 25 scans. Effective dose estimates were calculated using the ICRP 60, 80, and 103 tissue weighting factors. Relative differences between this study and the published in-vivo estimates showed agreement for the lungs. Relative differences between this study and the blood flow models showed differences> 5 times in the thyroid contribution to the effective dose demonstrating a limitation in these models. Comparisons between rest and stress effective dose estimates revealed no significant difference. The average 'adult' effective dose for Rb-82 was found to be 0.00084+/-0.00018 mSv/MBq. The highest dose organs were the lungs, kidneys and stomach wall. These dose estimates for Rb-82 are the first to be measured directly with PET/CT in humans, and are 4 times lower than previous ICRP 60 values based on a theoretical blood flow model. The total adult effective dose from a typical Rb-82 study including CT for attenuation correction and potential Sr-85 breakthrough is 1.5 +/- 0.4 mSv.

Prevalence of Neuropathic Pain in Cancer Patients: Pooled Estimates From a Systematic Review of Published Literature and Results From a Survey Conducted in 50 Italian Palliative Care Centers.

PubMed

Roberto, Anna; Deandrea, Silvia; Greco, Maria Teresa; Corli, Oscar; Negri, Eva; Pizzuto, Massimo; Ruggeri, Fabrizio

2016-06-01

Because of the increasing body of literature on neuropathic cancer pain (NCP), an accurate estimate of its prevalence requires recurring updates. To provide this estimate using information from a systematic review and a survey. Using MEDLINE, Embase, and a previous review, we searched for studies published up to 2014 reporting data on NCP prevalence in adult cancer populations. Pooled prevalence rates from observational prospective studies were computed. The association between NCP prevalence and possible predictors was investigated for oncology and palliative settings. Prevalence rates were extracted from a questionnaire answered by 137 physicians working in 50 Italian centers of palliative care. Estimates from studies conducted in palliative settings and from the experts were analyzed separately and eventually pooled with an informative Bayesian random-effect model. Twenty-nine observational studies were identified. The overall pooled prevalence was 31.2%, with high heterogeneity; similar figures were observed when oncology and palliative settings were individually considered. A slightly higher prevalence of NCP was detected for hospice/inpatients as compared to outpatients, in both settings. The mean NCP prevalence reported by the survey experts was 44.2%; the pooled Bayesian estimate for the palliative setting corresponded to 43.0% (95% CI: 40.0-46.0). The subgroup with the lowest heterogeneity and where the literature and experts' estimates were closest is hospice/inpatients, with a pooled Bayesian prevalence rate of 34.9% (95% CI: 29.9-41.0). The systematic review and the survey suggest that more than one in three patients with cancer pain also experiences NCP. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comprehensive assessment of collision likelihood in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oltrogge, D. L.; Alfano, S.; Law, C.; Cacioni, A.; Kelso, T. S.

2018-06-01

Knowing the likelihood of collision for satellites operating in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) is of extreme importance and interest to the global community and the operators of GEO spacecraft. Yet for all of its importance, a comprehensive assessment of GEO collision likelihood is difficult to do and has never been done. In this paper, we employ six independent and diverse assessment methods to estimate GEO collision likelihood. Taken in aggregate, this comprehensive assessment offer new insights into GEO collision likelihood that are within a factor of 3.5 of each other. These results are then compared to four collision and seven encounter rate estimates previously published. Collectively, these new findings indicate that collision likelihood in GEO is as much as four orders of magnitude higher than previously published by other researchers. Results indicate that a collision is likely to occur every 4 years for one satellite out of the entire GEO active satellite population against a 1 cm RSO catalogue, and every 50 years against a 20 cm RSO catalogue. Further, previous assertions that collision relative velocities are low (i.e., <1 km/s) in GEO are disproven, with some GEO relative velocities as high as 4 km/s identified. These new findings indicate that unless operators successfully mitigate this collision risk, the GEO orbital arc is and will remain at high risk of collision, with the potential for serious follow-on collision threats from post-collision debris when a substantial GEO collision occurs.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention: Folic Acid Fortification and Spina Bifida in the U.S.

PubMed

Grosse, Scott D; Berry, Robert J; Mick Tilford, J; Kucik, James E; Waitzman, Norman J

2016-05-01

Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997-1998. Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995-1996 relative to 1999-2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A simple web-based risk calculator (www.anastomoticleak.com) is superior to the surgeon's estimate of anastomotic leak after colon cancer resection.

PubMed

Sammour, T; Lewis, M; Thomas, M L; Lawrence, M J; Hunter, A; Moore, J W

2017-01-01

Anastomotic leak can be a devastating complication, and early prediction is difficult. The aim of this study is to prospectively validate a simple anastomotic leak risk calculator and compare its predictive value with the estimate of the primary operating surgeon. Consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency colon cancer surgery with a primary anastomosis over a 1-year period were prospectively included. A recently published anastomotic leak risk nomogram was converted to an online calculator ( www.anastomoticleak.com ). The calculator-derived risk of anastomotic leak and the risk estimated by the primary operating surgeon were recorded at the completion of surgery. The primary outcome was anastomotic leak within 90 days as defined by previously published criteria. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (AUROC) was performed for both risk estimates. A total of 105 patients were screened for inclusion during the study period, of whom 83 met the inclusion criteria. The overall anastomotic leak rate was 9.6%. The anastomotic leak calculator was highly predictive of anastomotic leak (AUROC 0.84, P = 0.002), whereas the surgeon estimate was not predictive (AUROC 0.40, P = 0.243). A simple anastomotic leak risk calculator is significantly better at predicting anastomotic leak than the estimate of the primary surgeon. Further external validation on a larger data set is required.

Estimation of skin entrance doses (SEDs) for common medical X-ray diagnostic examinations in India and proposed diagnostic reference levels (DRLs).

PubMed

Sonawane, A U; Shirva, V K; Pradhan, A S

2010-02-01

Skin entrance doses (SEDs) were estimated by carrying out measurements of air kerma from 101 X-ray machines installed in 45 major and selected hospitals in the country by using a silicon detector-based dose Test-O-Meter. 1209 number of air kerma measurements of diagnostic projections for adults have been analysed for seven types of common diagnostic examinations, viz. chest (AP, PA, LAT), lumbar spine (AP, LAT), thoracic spine (AP, LAT), abdomen (AP), pelvis (AP), hip joints (AP) and skull (PA, LAT) for different film-screen combinations. The values of estimated diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) (third quartile values of SEDs) were compared with guidance levels/DRLs of doses published by the IAEA-BSS-Safety Series No. 115, 1996; HPA (NRPB) (2000 and 2005), UK; CRCPD/CDRH (USA), European Commission and other national values. The values of DRLs obtained in this study are comparable with the values published by the IAEA-BSS-115 (1996); HPA (NRPB) (2000 and 2005) UK; EC and CRCPD/CDRH, USA including values obtained in previous studies in India.

Estimation of hand hygiene opportunities on an adult medical ward using 24-hour camera surveillance: validation of the HOW2 Benchmark Study.

PubMed

Diller, Thomas; Kelly, J William; Blackhurst, Dawn; Steed, Connie; Boeker, Sue; McElveen, Danielle C

2014-06-01

We previously published a formula to estimate the number of hand hygiene opportunities (HHOs) per patient-day using the World Health Organization's "Five Moments for Hand Hygiene" methodology (HOW2 Benchmark Study). HHOs can be used as a denominator for calculating hand hygiene compliance rates when product utilization data are available. This study validates the previously derived HHO estimate using 24-hour video surveillance of health care worker hand hygiene activity. The validation study utilized 24-hour video surveillance recordings of 26 patients' hospital stays to measure the actual number of HHOs per patient-day on a medicine ward in a large teaching hospital. Statistical methods were used to compare these results to those obtained by episodic observation of patient activity in the original derivation study. Total hours of data collection were 81.3 and 1,510.8, resulting in 1,740 and 4,522 HHOs in the derivation and validation studies, respectively. Comparisons of the mean and median HHOs per 24-hour period did not differ significantly. HHOs were 71.6 (95% confidence interval: 64.9-78.3) and 73.9 (95% confidence interval: 69.1-84.1), respectively. This study validates the HOW2 Benchmark Study and confirms that expected numbers of HHOs can be estimated from the unit's patient census and patient-to-nurse ratio. These data can be used as denominators in calculations of hand hygiene compliance rates from electronic monitoring using the "Five Moments for Hand Hygiene" methodology. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying global dust devil occurrence from meteorological analyses

PubMed Central

Jemmett-Smith, Bradley C; Marsham, John H; Knippertz, Peter; Gilkeson, Carl A

2015-01-01

Dust devils and nonrotating dusty plumes are effective uplift mechanisms for fine particles, but their contribution to the global dust budget is uncertain. By applying known bulk thermodynamic criteria to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses, we provide the first global hourly climatology of potential dust devil and dusty plume (PDDP) occurrence. In agreement with observations, activity is highest from late morning into the afternoon. Combining PDDP frequencies with dust source maps and typical emission values gives the best estimate of global contributions of 3.4% (uncertainty 0.9–31%), 1 order of magnitude lower than the only estimate previously published. Total global hours of dust uplift by dry convection are ∼0.002% of the dust-lifting winds resolved by ECMWF, consistent with dry convection making a small contribution to global uplift. Reducing uncertainty requires better knowledge of factors controlling PDDP occurrence, source regions, and dust fluxes induced by dry convection. Key Points Global potential dust devil occurrence quantified from meteorological analyses Climatology shows realistic diurnal cycle and geographical distribution Best estimate of global contribution of 3.4% is 10 times smaller than the previous estimate PMID:26681815

An improved method for estimating capillary pressure from 3D microtomography images and its application to the study of disconnected nonwetting phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tianyi; Schlüter, Steffen; Dragila, Maria Ines; Wildenschild, Dorthe

2018-04-01

We present an improved method for estimating interfacial curvatures from x-ray computed microtomography (CMT) data that significantly advances the potential for this tool to unravel the mechanisms and phenomena associated with multi-phase fluid motion in porous media. CMT data, used to analyze the spatial distribution and capillary pressure-saturation (Pc-S) relationships of liquid phases, requires accurate estimates of interfacial curvature. Our improved method for curvature estimation combines selective interface modification and distance weighting approaches. It was verified against synthetic (analytical computer-generated) and real image data sets, demonstrating a vast improvement over previous methods. Using this new tool on a previously published data set (multiphase flow) yielded important new insights regarding the pressure state of the disconnected nonwetting phase during drainage and imbibition. The trapped and disconnected non-wetting phase delimits its own hysteretic Pc-S curve that inhabits the space within the main hysteretic Pc-S loop of the connected wetting phase. Data suggests that the pressure of the disconnected, non-wetting phase is strongly modified by the pore geometry rather than solely by the bulk liquid phase that surrounds it.

The estimated impact of human papillomavirus vaccine coverage on the lifetime cervical cancer burden among girls currently aged 12 years and younger in the United States.

PubMed

Chesson, Harrell W; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Saraiya, Mona; Dunne, Eileen F; Markowitz, Lauri E

2014-11-01

Using a previously published dynamic model, we illustrate the potential benefits of human papillomavirus vaccination among girls currently 12 years or younger in the United States. Increasing vaccine coverage of young girls to 80% would avert 53,300 lifetime cervical cancer cases versus 30% coverage and 28,800 cases versus 50% coverage.

Distortion correction of echo planar images applying the concept of finite rate of innovation to point spread function mapping (FRIP).

PubMed

Nunes, Rita G; Hajnal, Joseph V

2018-06-01

Point spread function (PSF) mapping enables estimating the displacement fields required for distortion correction of echo planar images. Recently, a highly accelerated approach was introduced for estimating displacements from the phase slope of under-sampled PSF mapping data. Sampling schemes with varying spacing were proposed requiring stepwise phase unwrapping. To avoid unwrapping errors, an alternative approach applying the concept of finite rate of innovation to PSF mapping (FRIP) is introduced, using a pattern search strategy to locate the PSF peak, and the two methods are compared. Fully sampled PSF data was acquired in six subjects at 3.0 T, and distortion maps were estimated after retrospective under-sampling. The two methods were compared for both previously published and newly optimized sampling patterns. Prospectively under-sampled data were also acquired. Shift maps were estimated and deviations relative to the fully sampled reference map were calculated. The best performance was achieved when using FRIP with a previously proposed sampling scheme. The two methods were comparable for the remaining schemes. The displacement field errors tended to be lower as the number of samples or their spacing increased. A robust method for estimating the position of the PSF peak has been introduced.

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

2017-08-09

We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

Data reuse and the open data citation advantage

PubMed Central

Vision, Todd J.

2013-01-01

Background. Attribution to the original contributor upon reuse of published data is important both as a reward for data creators and to document the provenance of research findings. Previous studies have found that papers with publicly available datasets receive a higher number of citations than similar studies without available data. However, few previous analyses have had the statistical power to control for the many variables known to predict citation rate, which has led to uncertain estimates of the “citation benefit”. Furthermore, little is known about patterns in data reuse over time and across datasets. Method and Results. Here, we look at citation rates while controlling for many known citation predictors and investigate the variability of data reuse. In a multivariate regression on 10,555 studies that created gene expression microarray data, we found that studies that made data available in a public repository received 9% (95% confidence interval: 5% to 13%) more citations than similar studies for which the data was not made available. Date of publication, journal impact factor, open access status, number of authors, first and last author publication history, corresponding author country, institution citation history, and study topic were included as covariates. The citation benefit varied with date of dataset deposition: a citation benefit was most clear for papers published in 2004 and 2005, at about 30%. Authors published most papers using their own datasets within two years of their first publication on the dataset, whereas data reuse papers published by third-party investigators continued to accumulate for at least six years. To study patterns of data reuse directly, we compiled 9,724 instances of third party data reuse via mention of GEO or ArrayExpress accession numbers in the full text of papers. The level of third-party data use was high: for 100 datasets deposited in year 0, we estimated that 40 papers in PubMed reused a dataset by year 2, 100 by year 4, and more than 150 data reuse papers had been published by year 5. Data reuse was distributed across a broad base of datasets: a very conservative estimate found that 20% of the datasets deposited between 2003 and 2007 had been reused at least once by third parties. Conclusion. After accounting for other factors affecting citation rate, we find a robust citation benefit from open data, although a smaller one than previously reported. We conclude there is a direct effect of third-party data reuse that persists for years beyond the time when researchers have published most of the papers reusing their own data. Other factors that may also contribute to the citation benefit are considered. We further conclude that, at least for gene expression microarray data, a substantial fraction of archived datasets are reused, and that the intensity of dataset reuse has been steadily increasing since 2003. PMID:24109559

One in Five Maternal Deaths in Bangladesh Associated with Acute Jaundice: Results from a National Maternal Mortality Survey

PubMed Central

Shah, Rupal; Nahar, Quamrun; Gurley, Emily S.

2016-01-01

We estimated the proportion of maternal deaths in Bangladesh associated with acute onset of jaundice. We used verbal autopsy data from a nationally representative maternal mortality survey to calculate the proportion of maternal deaths associated with jaundice and compared it to previously published estimates. Of all maternal deaths between 2008 and 2010, 23% were associated with jaundice, compared with 19% from 1998 to 2001. Approximately one of five maternal deaths was preceded by jaundice, unchanged in 10 years. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the etiology of these maternal deaths in Bangladesh. PMID:26755563

Comparison of different estimation techniques for biomass concentration in large scale yeast fermentation.

PubMed

Hocalar, A; Türker, M; Karakuzu, C; Yüzgeç, U

2011-04-01

In this study, previously developed five different state estimation methods are examined and compared for estimation of biomass concentrations at a production scale fed-batch bioprocess. These methods are i. estimation based on kinetic model of overflow metabolism; ii. estimation based on metabolic black-box model; iii. estimation based on observer; iv. estimation based on artificial neural network; v. estimation based on differential evaluation. Biomass concentrations are estimated from available measurements and compared with experimental data obtained from large scale fermentations. The advantages and disadvantages of the presented techniques are discussed with regard to accuracy, reproducibility, number of primary measurements required and adaptation to different working conditions. Among the various techniques, the metabolic black-box method seems to have advantages although the number of measurements required is more than that for the other methods. However, the required extra measurements are based on commonly employed instruments in an industrial environment. This method is used for developing a model based control of fed-batch yeast fermentations. Copyright © 2010 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small area variation in diabetes prevalence in Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Tierney, Edward F.; Burrows, Nilka R.; Barker, Lawrence E.; Beckles, Gloria L.; Boyle, James P.; Cadwell, Betsy L.; Kirtland, Karen A.; Thompson, Theodore J.

2015-01-01

Objective To estimate the 2009 prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in Puerto Rico among adults ≥ 20 years of age in order to gain a better understanding of its geographic distribution so that policymakers can more efficiently target prevention and control programs. Methods A Bayesian multilevel model was fitted to the combined 2008–2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and 2009 United States Census data to estimate diabetes prevalence for each of the 78 municipios (counties) in Puerto Rico. Results The mean unadjusted estimate for all counties was 14.3% (range by county, 9.9%–18.0%). The average width of the confidence intervals was 6.2%. Adjusted and unadjusted estimates differed little. Conclusions These 78 county estimates are higher on average and showed less variability (i.e., had a smaller range) than the previously published estimates of the 2008 diabetes prevalence for all United States counties (mean, 9.9%; range, 3.0%–18.2%). PMID:23939364

Estimation of rate constants of PCB dechlorination reactions using an anaerobic dehalogenation model.

PubMed

Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

2017-02-15

This study aims to estimate anaerobic dechlorination rate constants (k m ) of reactions of individual PCB congeners using data from four laboratory microcosms set up using sediment from Baltimore Harbor. Pathway k m values are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model (ADM) which can be applied to any halogenated hydrophobic organic (HOC). Improvements such as handling multiple dechlorination activities (DAs) and co-elution of congeners, incorporating constraints, using new goodness of fit evaluation led to an increase in accuracy, speed and flexibility of ADM. DAs published in the literature in terms of chlorine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The best fit explaining the congener pattern changes was found for pathways of Phylotype DEH10, which has the ability to remove doubly flanked chlorines in meta and para positions, para flanked chlorines in meta position. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0001-0.133d -1 , the median of which is found to be comparable to the few available published biologically confirmed rate constants. Compound specific modelling studies such as that performed by ADM can enable monitoring and prediction of concentration changes as well as toxicity during bioremediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heat flow in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cranganu, Constantin

Twenty new heat flow values are incorporated, along with 40 previously published data, into a heat flow map of Oklahoma. The new heat flow data were estimated using previous temperature measurements in boreholes made by American Petroleum Institute researchers and 1,498 thermal conductivity measurements on drill cuttings. The mean of 20 average thermal gradients is 30.50sp°C/km. In general, thermal gradients increase from SW (14.11sp°C/km) to NE (42.24sp°C/km). The range of 1,498 in situ thermal conductivity measurements (after corrections for anisotropy, in situ temperature, and porosity) is 0.90-6.1 W/m-K; the average is 1.68 W/m-K. Estimated near-surface heat flow (±20%) at 20 new sites in Oklahoma varies between 22 ± 4 mW/msp2 and 86 ± 17 mW/msp2; the average is 50 mW/msp2. Twenty-seven new heat-generation estimates, along with 22 previously published data, are used to create a heat generation map of Oklahoma. The range of heat production estimates is 1.1-3.5 muW/msp3, with an average of 2.5 muW/msp3. The heat flow regime in Oklahoma is primarily conductive in nature, except for a zone in northeast. Transient effects due to sedimentary processes and metamorphic/igneous activity, as well as past climatic changes, do not significantly influence the thermal state of the Oklahoma crust. Heat flow near the margins of the Arkoma and Anadarko Basins may be depressed or elevated by 5-13 mW/msp2 by refraction of heat from sedimentary rocks of relatively low thermal conductivity (1-2 W/m-K) into crystalline basement rocks of relatively high thermal conductivity (˜3-4 W/m-K). The heat generation-heat flow relationship shows a modest correlation. The relatively high heat flow (˜70-80 mW/msp2) in part of northeastern Oklahoma suggests that the thermal regime there may be perturbed by regional groundwater flow originating in the fractured outcrops of the Arbuckle-Simpson aquifer in the Arbuckle Mountains.

A model to estimate cost-savings in diabetic foot ulcer prevention efforts.

PubMed

Barshes, Neal R; Saedi, Samira; Wrobel, James; Kougias, Panos; Kundakcioglu, O Erhun; Armstrong, David G

2017-04-01

Sustained efforts at preventing diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and subsequent leg amputations are sporadic in most health care systems despite the high costs associated with such complications. We sought to estimate effectiveness targets at which cost-savings (i.e. improved health outcomes at decreased total costs) might occur. A Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the five-year survival, incidence of foot complications, and total health care costs in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people with diabetes. Clinical event and cost estimates were obtained from previously-published trials and studies. A population without previous DFU but with 17% neuropathy and 11% peripheral artery disease (PAD) prevalence was assumed. Primary prevention (PP) was defined as reducing initial DFU incidence. PP was more than 90% likely to provide cost-savings when annual prevention costs are less than $50/person and/or annual DFU incidence is reduced by at least 25%. Efforts directed at patients with diabetes who were at moderate or high risk for DFUs were very likely to provide cost-savings if DFU incidence was decreased by at least 10% and/or the cost was less than $150 per person per year. Low-cost DFU primary prevention efforts producing even small decreases in DFU incidence may provide the best opportunity for cost-savings, especially if focused on patients with neuropathy and/or PAD. Mobile phone-based reminders, self-identification of risk factors (ex. Ipswich touch test), and written brochures may be among such low-cost interventions that should be investigated for cost-savings potential. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Emesis as a Screening Diagnostic for Low Dose Rate (LDR) Total Body Radiation Exposure.

PubMed

Camarata, Andrew S; Switchenko, Jeffrey M; Demidenko, Eugene; Flood, Ann B; Swartz, Harold M; Ali, Arif N

2016-04-01

Current radiation disaster manuals list the time-to-emesis (TE) as the key triage indicator of radiation dose. The data used to support TE recommendations were derived primarily from nearly instantaneous, high dose-rate exposures as part of variable condition accident databases. To date, there has not been a systematic differentiation between triage dose estimates associated with high and low dose rate (LDR) exposures, even though it is likely that after a nuclear detonation or radiologic disaster, many surviving casualties would have received a significant portion of their total exposure from fallout (LDR exposure) rather than from the initial nuclear detonation or criticality event (high dose rate exposure). This commentary discusses the issues surrounding the use of emesis as a screening diagnostic for radiation dose after LDR exposure. As part of this discussion, previously published clinical data on emesis after LDR total body irradiation (TBI) is statistically re-analyzed as an illustration of the complexity of the issue and confounding factors. This previously published data includes 107 patients who underwent TBI up to 10.5 Gy in a single fraction delivered over several hours at 0.02 to 0.04 Gy min. Estimates based on these data for the sensitivity of emesis as a screening diagnostic for the low dose rate radiation exposure range from 57.1% to 76.6%, and the estimates for specificity range from 87.5% to 99.4%. Though the original data contain multiple confounding factors, the evidence regarding sensitivity suggests that emesis appears to be quite poor as a medical screening diagnostic for LDR exposures.

Efficacy of a bivalent killed whole-cell cholera vaccine over five years: a re-analysis of a cluster-randomized trial.

PubMed

Fong, Youyi; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Park, Jin Kyung; Marks, Florian; Clemens, John D; Chao, Dennis L

2018-02-20

Oral cholera vaccine (OCV) is a feasible tool to prevent or mitigate cholera outbreaks. A better understanding of the vaccine's efficacy among different age groups and how rapidly its protection wanes could help guide vaccination policy. To estimate the level and duration of OCV efficacy, we re-analyzed data from a previously published cluster-randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled trial with five years of follow-up. We used a Cox proportional hazards model and modeled the potentially time-dependent effect of age categories on both vaccine efficacy and risk of infection in the placebo group. In addition, we investigated the impact of an outbreak period on model estimation. Vaccine efficacy was 38% (95% CI: -2%,62%) for those vaccinated from ages 1 to under 5 years old, 85% (95% CI: 67%,93%) for those 5 to under 15 years, and 69% (95% CI: 49%,81%) for those vaccinated at ages 15 years and older. Among adult vaccinees, efficacy did not appear to wane during the trial, but there was insufficient data to assess the waning of efficacy among child vaccinees. Through this re-analysis we were able to detect a statistically significant difference in OCV efficacy when the vaccine was administered to children under 5 years old vs. children 5 years and older. The estimated efficacies are more similar to the previously published analysis based on the first two years of follow-up than the analysis based on all five years. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00289224.

New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2011-01-01

Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumptionmore » rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.« less

Small area estimation of obesity prevalence and dietary patterns: a model applied to Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil.

PubMed

Cataife, Guido

2014-03-01

We propose the use of previously developed small area estimation techniques to monitor obesity and dietary habits in developing countries and apply the model to Rio de Janeiro city. We estimate obesity prevalence rates at the Census Tract through a combinatorial optimization spatial microsimulation model that matches body mass index and socio-demographic data in Brazil's 2008-9 family expenditure survey with Census 2010 socio-demographic data. Obesity ranges from 8% to 25% in most areas and affects the poor almost as much as the rich. Male and female obesity rates are uncorrelated at the small area level. The model is an effective tool to understand the complexity of the problem and to aid in policy design. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Cleanroom certification model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Currit, P. A.

1983-01-01

The Cleanroom software development methodology is designed to take the gamble out of product releases for both suppliers and receivers of the software. The ingredients of this procedure are a life cycle of executable product increments, representative statistical testing, and a standard estimate of the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) of the product at the time of its release. A statistical approach to software product testing using randomly selected samples of test cases is considered. A statistical model is defined for the certification process which uses the timing data recorded during test. A reasonableness argument for this model is provided that uses previously published data on software product execution. Also included is a derivation of the certification model estimators and a comparison of the proposed least squares technique with the more commonly used maximum likelihood estimators.

Suicide and Suicidal Attempts in the United States: Costs and Policy Implications.

PubMed

Shepard, Donald S; Gurewich, Deborah; Lwin, Aung K; Reed, Gerald A; Silverman, Morton M

2016-06-01

The national cost of suicides and suicide attempts in the United States in 2013 was $58.4 billion based on reported numbers alone. Lost productivity (termed indirect costs) represents most (97.1%) of this cost. Adjustment for under-reporting increased the total cost to $93.5 billion or $298 per capita, 2.1-2.8 times that of previous studies. Previous research suggests that improved continuity of care would likely reduce the number of subsequent suicidal attempts following a previous nonfatal attempt. We estimate a highly favorable benefit-cost ratio of 6 to 1 for investments in additional medical, counseling, and linkage services for such patients. © 2015 The Authors. Suicide and LifeThreatening Behavior published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Suicidology.

Incineration of different types of medical wastes: emission factors for gaseous emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvim-Ferraz, M. C. M.; Afonso, S. A. V.

Previous research works showed that to protect public health, the hospital incinerators should be provided with air pollution control devices. As most hospital incinerators do not possess such equipment, efficient methodologies should be developed to evaluate the safety of incineration procedure. Emission factors (EF) can be used for an easy estimation of legal parameters. Nevertheless, the actual knowledge is yet very scarce, mainly because EF previously published do not include enough information about the incinerated waste composition, besides considering many different waste classifications. This paper reports the first EF estimated for CO, SO 2, NO x and HCl, associated to the incineration of medical waste, segregated in different types according to the classification of the Portuguese legislation. The results showed that those EF are strongly influenced by incinerated waste composition, directly affected by incinerated waste type, waste classification, segregation practice and management methodology. The correspondence between different waste classifications was analysed comparing the estimated EF with the sole results previously published for specific waste types, being observed that the correspondence is not always possible. The legal limit for pollutant concentrations could be obeyed for NO x, but concentrations were higher than the limit for CO (11-24 times), SO 2 (2-5 times), and HCl (9-200 times), confirming that air pollution control devices must be used to protect human health. The small heating value of medical wastes with compulsory incineration implied the requirement of a bigger amount of auxiliary fuel for their incineration, which affects the emitted amounts of CO, NO x and SO 2 (28, 20 and practically 100% of the respective values were related with fuel combustion). Nevertheless, the incineration of those wastes lead to the smallest amount of emitted pollutants, the emitted amount of SO 2 and NO x reducing to 93% and the emitted amount of CO and HCl to more than 99%.

Reliability reporting across studies using the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory.

PubMed

Vassar, Matt; Hale, William

2009-01-01

Empirical research on anger and hostility has pervaded the academic literature for more than 50 years. Accurate measurement of anger/hostility and subsequent interpretation of results requires that the instruments yield strong psychometric properties. For consistent measurement, reliability estimates must be calculated with each administration, because changes in sample characteristics may alter the scale's ability to generate reliable scores. Therefore, the present study was designed to address reliability reporting practices for a widely used anger assessment, the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). Of the 250 published articles reviewed, 11.2% calculated and presented reliability estimates for the data at hand, 6.8% cited estimates from a previous study, and 77.1% made no mention of score reliability. Mean alpha estimates of scores for BDHI subscales generally fell below acceptable standards. Additionally, no detectable pattern was found between reporting practices and publication year or journal prestige. Areas for future research are also discussed.

Nuclear dna amounts in angiosperms.

PubMed

Bennett, M D; Smith, J B

1976-05-27

The number of angiosperm species for which nuclear DNA amount estimates have been made has nearly trebled since the last collected lists of such values were published, and therefore, publication of a more comprehensive list is over due. This paper lists absolute nuclear DNA amounts for 753 angiosperm species. The dats were assembled primarily for reference purposes, and so the species are listed in alphabetical order, as this was felt to be more helpful to cyto- and biochemists whom, it is anticipated, will be among its major users. The paper also reviews aspects of the history, nomenclature, methods, accuracy and problems of nuclear DNA estimation in angiosperms. No attempt is made to reconsider those aspects of nuclear DNA estimation which have been fully revised previously, although the bibliography of such aspects is given. Instead, the paper is intended as a source of basic information regarding the terminology, practice and limitations of nuclear DNA estimation, especially by Feulgen microdensitometry, as currently practiced.

Paleomagnetic investigation of some volcanic rocks from the McMurdo volcanic province, Antarctica

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mankinen, E.A.; Cox, A.

1988-01-01

Paleomagnetic data for lava flows from sporadic but long-lived eruptions in the McMurdo Sound region are combined with previously published geologic and geochronologic data to determine the general eruptive sequence of the area. Lava flows in the Walcott Bay area were erupted during the Gauss Normal, Matuyama Reversed, and Brunhes Normal Polarity Chrons. The youngest flows on Black Island probably erupted near the boundary between the Gilbert and Gauss chrons. The most recent activity was concentrated on the volcanic edifices of Mounts Morning and Discovery and on Ross Island sampled during this study with those of eight flows that were published previously yields a mean paleomagnetic pole at 87.3??N, 317.3??E (??95 = 6.3??). The ancient geomagnetic field dispersion about this mean pole is 23.5??, with upper and lower limits of 95% confidence equal to 27.4?? and 20.5??, respectively. This value probably is a reasonable estimate of secular variation for the Antarctic continent during Pliocene and Pleistocene time. -Authors

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Kahn, James G; Muraguri, Nicholas; Harris, Brian; Lugada, Eric; Clasen, Thomas; Grabowsky, Mark; Mermin, Jonathan; Shariff, Shahnaaz

2012-01-01

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign. We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease. Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20. A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.

An approximation of herd effect due to vaccinating children against seasonal influenza – a potential solution to the incorporation of indirect effects into static models

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Indirect herd effect from vaccination of children offers potential for improving the effectiveness of influenza prevention in the remaining unvaccinated population. Static models used in cost-effectiveness analyses cannot dynamically capture herd effects. The objective of this study was to develop a methodology to allow herd effect associated with vaccinating children against seasonal influenza to be incorporated into static models evaluating the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Methods Two previously published linear equations for approximation of herd effects in general were compared with the results of a structured literature review undertaken using PubMed searches to identify data on herd effects specific to influenza vaccination. A linear function was fitted to point estimates from the literature using the sum of squared residuals. Results The literature review identified 21 publications on 20 studies for inclusion. Six studies provided data on a mathematical relationship between effective vaccine coverage in subgroups and reduction of influenza infection in a larger unvaccinated population. These supported a linear relationship when effective vaccine coverage in a subgroup population was between 20% and 80%. Three studies evaluating herd effect at a community level, specifically induced by vaccinating children, provided point estimates for fitting linear equations. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the target population for vaccination (children) was slightly less conservative than a previously published equation for herd effects in general. The fitted linear equation for herd protection in the non-target population was considerably less conservative than the previously published equation. Conclusions This method of approximating herd effect requires simple adjustments to the annual baseline risk of influenza in static models: (1) for the age group targeted by the childhood vaccination strategy (i.e. children); and (2) for other age groups not targeted (e.g. adults and/or elderly). Two approximations provide a linear relationship between effective coverage and reduction in the risk of infection. The first is a conservative approximation, recommended as a base-case for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The second, fitted to data extracted from a structured literature review, provides a less conservative estimate of herd effect, recommended for sensitivity analyses. PMID:23339290

Maximum likelihood estimation of correction for dilution bias in simple linear regression using replicates from subjects with extreme first measurements.

PubMed

Berglund, Lars; Garmo, Hans; Lindbäck, Johan; Svärdsudd, Kurt; Zethelius, Björn

2008-09-30

The least-squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model is biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error. A corrected slope may be estimated by adding data from a reliability study, which comprises a subset of subjects from the main study. The precision of this corrected slope depends on the design of the reliability study and estimator choice. Previous work has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random sample from the main study. A more efficient design is to use subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. Previously, we published a variance formula for the corrected slope, when the correction factor is the slope in the regression of the second measurement on the first. In this paper we show that both designs improve by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The precision gain is explained by the inclusion of data from all subjects for estimation of the predictor's variance and by the use of the second measurement for estimation of the covariance between response and predictor. The gain of MLE enhances with stronger true relationship between response and predictor and with lower precision in the predictor measurements. We present a real data example on the relationship between fasting insulin, a surrogate marker, and true insulin sensitivity measured by a gold-standard euglycaemic insulin clamp, and simulations, where the behavior of profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals is examined. MLE was shown to be a robust estimator for non-normal distributions and efficient for small sample situations. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

STELLAR ENCOUNTER RATE IN GALACTIC GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bahramian, Arash; Heinke, Craig O.; Sivakoff, Gregory R.

2013-04-01

The high stellar densities in the cores of globular clusters cause significant stellar interactions. These stellar interactions can produce close binary mass-transferring systems involving compact objects and their progeny, such as X-ray binaries and radio millisecond pulsars. Comparing the numbers of these systems and interaction rates in different clusters drives our understanding of how cluster parameters affect the production of close binaries. In this paper we estimate stellar encounter rates ({Gamma}) for 124 Galactic globular clusters based on observational data as opposed to the methods previously employed, which assumed 'King-model' profiles for all clusters. By deprojecting cluster surface brightness profilesmore » to estimate luminosity density profiles, we treat 'King-model' and 'core-collapsed' clusters in the same way. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the effects of uncertainties in various observational parameters (distance, reddening, surface brightness) on {Gamma}, producing the first catalog of globular cluster stellar encounter rates with estimated errors. Comparing our results with published observations of likely products of stellar interactions (numbers of X-ray binaries, numbers of radio millisecond pulsars, and {gamma}-ray luminosity) we find both clear correlations and some differences with published results.« less

Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods

DOE PAGES

Maurer, Jeremy; Segall, Paul; Bradley, Andrew Michael

2017-08-19

Here, the geodetically derived interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) provides a first-order constraint on earthquake potential and can play an important role in seismic hazard assessment, but quantifying uncertainty in MDR is a challenging problem that has not been fully addressed. We establish criteria for reliable MDR estimators, evaluate existing methods for determining the probability density of MDR, and propose and evaluate new methods. Geodetic measurements moderately far from the fault provide tighter constraints on MDR than those nearby. Previously used methods can fail catastrophically under predictable circumstances. The bootstrap method works well with strong data constraints on MDR, butmore » can be strongly biased when network geometry is poor. We propose two new methods: the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator (COBE) assumes uniform priors on slip rate (from geologic information) and MDR, and can be shown through synthetic tests to be a useful, albeit conservative estimator; the Constrained Optimization Bounding Linear Estimator (COBLE) is the corresponding linear estimator with Gaussian priors rather than point-wise bounds on slip rates. COBE matches COBLE with strong data constraints on MDR. We compare results from COBE and COBLE to previously published results for the interseismic MDR at Parkfield, on the San Andreas Fault, and find similar results; thus, the apparent discrepancy between MDR and the total moment release (seismic and afterslip) in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake remains.« less

Bounding the moment deficit rate on crustal faults using geodetic data: Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maurer, Jeremy; Segall, Paul; Bradley, Andrew Michael

Here, the geodetically derived interseismic moment deficit rate (MDR) provides a first-order constraint on earthquake potential and can play an important role in seismic hazard assessment, but quantifying uncertainty in MDR is a challenging problem that has not been fully addressed. We establish criteria for reliable MDR estimators, evaluate existing methods for determining the probability density of MDR, and propose and evaluate new methods. Geodetic measurements moderately far from the fault provide tighter constraints on MDR than those nearby. Previously used methods can fail catastrophically under predictable circumstances. The bootstrap method works well with strong data constraints on MDR, butmore » can be strongly biased when network geometry is poor. We propose two new methods: the Constrained Optimization Bounding Estimator (COBE) assumes uniform priors on slip rate (from geologic information) and MDR, and can be shown through synthetic tests to be a useful, albeit conservative estimator; the Constrained Optimization Bounding Linear Estimator (COBLE) is the corresponding linear estimator with Gaussian priors rather than point-wise bounds on slip rates. COBE matches COBLE with strong data constraints on MDR. We compare results from COBE and COBLE to previously published results for the interseismic MDR at Parkfield, on the San Andreas Fault, and find similar results; thus, the apparent discrepancy between MDR and the total moment release (seismic and afterslip) in the 2004 Parkfield earthquake remains.« less

Estimating the volatilization of ammonia from synthetic nitrogenous fertilizers used in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yisheng; Luan, Shengji; Chen, Liaoliao; Shao, Min

2011-03-01

Although it has long been recognized that significant amounts of nitrogen, typically in the form of ammonia (NH(3)) applied as fertilizer, are lost to the atmosphere, accurate estimates are lacking for many locations. In this study, a detailed, bottom-up method for estimating NH(3) emissions from synthetic fertilizers in China was used. The total amount emitted in 2005 in China was estimated to be 3.55 Tg NH(3)-N, with an uncertainty of ± 50%. This estimate was considerably lower than previously published values. Emissions from urea and ammonium bicarbonate accounted for 64.3% and 26.5%, respectively, of the 2005 total. The NH(3) emission inventory incorporated 2448 county-level data points, categorized on a monthly basis, and was developed with more accurate activity levels and emission factors than had been used in previous assessments. There was considerable variability in the emissions within a province. The NH(3) emissions generally peaked in the spring and summer, accounting for 30.1% and 48.8%, respectively, of total emissions in 2005. The peaks correlated with crop planting and fertilization schedules. The NH(3) regional distribution pattern showed strong correspondence with planting techniques and local arable land areas. The regions with the highest atmospheric losses are located in eastern China, especially the North China Plain and the Taihu region. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bidirectional segmentation of prostate capsule from ultrasound volumes: an improved strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Liyang; Narayanan, Ramkrishnan; Kumar, Dinesh; Fenster, Aaron; Barqawi, Albaha; Werahera, Priya; Crawford, E. David; Suri, Jasjit S.

2008-03-01

Prostate volume is an indirect indicator for several prostate diseases. Volume estimation is a desired requirement during prostate biopsy, therapy and clinical follow up. Image segmentation is thus necessary. Previously, discrete dynamic contour (DDC) was implemented in orthogonal unidirectional on the slice-by-slice basis for prostate boundary estimation. This suffered from the glitch that it needed stopping criteria during the propagation of segmentation procedure from slice-to-slice. To overcome this glitch, axial DDC was implemented and this suffered from the fact that central axis never remains fixed and wobbles during propagation of segmentation from slice-to-slice. The effect of this was a multi-fold reconstructed surface. This paper presents a bidirectional DDC approach, thereby removing the two glitches. Our bidirectional DDC protocol was tested on a clinical dataset on 28 3-D ultrasound image volumes acquired using side fire Philips transrectal ultrasound. We demonstrate the orthogonal bidirectional DDC strategy achieved the most accurate volume estimation compared with previously published orthogonal unidirectional DDC and axial DDC methods. Compared to the ground truth, we show that the mean volume estimation errors were: 18.48%, 9.21% and 7.82% for unidirectional, axial and bidirectional DDC methods, respectively. The segmentation architecture is implemented in Visual C++ in Windows environment.

Long-wavelength Low-intensity Photon Therapy (LLPT) for Traumatic Brain Injuries

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-08

analysis . These estimates are based on the variability in previously published experiments. Design: For each in vivo model of TBI, rats will be...ATP, GSH, apoptotic indicators, mitochondrial function, and changes in the levels of NSE and S100B proteins will be examined. Analysis of ATP, GSH...or to be run with the sample size intended. In particular, the weight drop assays were limited to the analysis of GSH levels. The cortical contusion

Brain Tissue Compartment Density Estimated Using Diffusion-Weighted MRI Yields Tissue Parameters Consistent With Histology

PubMed Central

Sepehrband, Farshid; Clark, Kristi A.; Ullmann, Jeremy F.P.; Kurniawan, Nyoman D.; Leanage, Gayeshika; Reutens, David C.; Yang, Zhengyi

2015-01-01

We examined whether quantitative density measures of cerebral tissue consistent with histology can be obtained from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). By incorporating prior knowledge of myelin and cell membrane densities, absolute tissue density values were estimated from relative intra-cellular and intra-neurite density values obtained from diffusion MRI. The NODDI (neurite orientation distribution and density imaging) technique, which can be applied clinically, was used. Myelin density estimates were compared with the results of electron and light microscopy in ex vivo mouse brain and with published density estimates in a healthy human brain. In ex vivo mouse brain, estimated myelin densities in different sub-regions of the mouse corpus callosum were almost identical to values obtained from electron microscopy (Diffusion MRI: 42±6%, 36±4% and 43±5%; electron microscopy: 41±10%, 36±8% and 44±12% in genu, body and splenium, respectively). In the human brain, good agreement was observed between estimated fiber density measurements and previously reported values based on electron microscopy. Estimated density values were unaffected by crossing fibers. PMID:26096639

The Economic Burden of Vision Loss and Eye Disorders among the United States Population Younger than 40 Years

PubMed Central

Wittenborn, John S.; Zhang, Xinzhi; Feagan, Charles W.; Crouse, Wesley L.; Shrestha, Sundar; Kemper, Alex R.; Hoerger, Thomas J.; Saaddine, Jinan B.

2017-01-01

Objective To estimate the economic burden of vision loss and eye disorders in the United States population younger than 40 years in 2012. Design Econometric and statistical analysis of survey, commercial claims, and census data. Participants The United States population younger than 40 years in 2012. Methods We categorized costs based on consensus guidelines. We estimated medical costs attributable to diagnosed eye-related disorders, undiagnosed vision loss, and medical vision aids using Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and MarketScan data. The prevalence of vision impairment and blindness were estimated using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data. We estimated costs from lost productivity using Survey of Income and Program Participation. We estimated costs of informal care, low vision aids, special education, school screening, government spending, and transfer payments based on published estimates and federal budgets. We estimated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost based on published utility values. Main Outcome Measures Costs and QALYs lost in 2012. Results The economic burden of vision loss and eye disorders among the United States population younger than 40 years was $27.5 billion in 2012 (95% confidence interval, $21.5–$37.2 billion), including $5.9 billion for children and $21.6 billion for adults 18 to 39 years of age. Direct costs were $14.5 billion, including $7.3 billion in medical costs for diagnosed disorders, $4.9 billion in refraction correction, $0.5 billion in medical costs for undiagnosed vision loss, and $1.8 billion in other direct costs. Indirect costs were $13 billion, primarily because of $12.2 billion in productivity losses. In addition, vision loss cost society 215 000 QALYs. Conclusions We found a substantial burden resulting from vision loss and eye disorders in the United States population younger than 40 years, a population excluded from previous studies. Monetizing quality-of-life losses at $50 000 per QALY would add $10.8 billion in additional costs, indicating a total economic burden of $38.2 billion. Relative to previously reported estimates for the population 40 years of age and older, more than one third of the total cost of vision loss and eye disorders may be incurred by persons younger than 40 years. PMID:23631946

An Evaluation of the Plant Density Estimator the Point-Centred Quarter Method (PCQM) Using Monte Carlo Simulation.

PubMed

Khan, Md Nabiul Islam; Hijbeek, Renske; Berger, Uta; Koedam, Nico; Grueters, Uwe; Islam, S M Zahirul; Hasan, Md Asadul; Dahdouh-Guebas, Farid

2016-01-01

In the Point-Centred Quarter Method (PCQM), the mean distance of the first nearest plants in each quadrant of a number of random sample points is converted to plant density. It is a quick method for plant density estimation. In recent publications the estimator equations of simple PCQM (PCQM1) and higher order ones (PCQM2 and PCQM3, which uses the distance of the second and third nearest plants, respectively) show discrepancy. This study attempts to review PCQM estimators in order to find the most accurate equation form. We tested the accuracy of different PCQM equations using Monte Carlo Simulations in simulated (having 'random', 'aggregated' and 'regular' spatial patterns) plant populations and empirical ones. PCQM requires at least 50 sample points to ensure a desired level of accuracy. PCQM with a corrected estimator is more accurate than with a previously published estimator. The published PCQM versions (PCQM1, PCQM2 and PCQM3) show significant differences in accuracy of density estimation, i.e. the higher order PCQM provides higher accuracy. However, the corrected PCQM versions show no significant differences among them as tested in various spatial patterns except in plant assemblages with a strong repulsion (plant competition). If N is number of sample points and R is distance, the corrected estimator of PCQM1 is 4(4N - 1)/(π ∑ R2) but not 12N/(π ∑ R2), of PCQM2 is 4(8N - 1)/(π ∑ R2) but not 28N/(π ∑ R2) and of PCQM3 is 4(12N - 1)/(π ∑ R2) but not 44N/(π ∑ R2) as published. If the spatial pattern of a plant association is random, PCQM1 with a corrected equation estimator and over 50 sample points would be sufficient to provide accurate density estimation. PCQM using just the nearest tree in each quadrant is therefore sufficient, which facilitates sampling of trees, particularly in areas with just a few hundred trees per hectare. PCQM3 provides the best density estimations for all types of plant assemblages including the repulsion process. Since in practice, the spatial pattern of a plant association remains unknown before starting a vegetation survey, for field applications the use of PCQM3 along with the corrected estimator is recommended. However, for sparse plant populations, where the use of PCQM3 may pose practical limitations, the PCQM2 or PCQM1 would be applied. During application of PCQM in the field, care should be taken to summarize the distance data based on 'the inverse summation of squared distances' but not 'the summation of inverse squared distances' as erroneously published.

One in Five Maternal Deaths in Bangladesh Associated with Acute Jaundice: Results from a National Maternal Mortality Survey.

PubMed

Shah, Rupal; Nahar, Quamrun; Gurley, Emily S

2016-03-01

We estimated the proportion of maternal deaths in Bangladesh associated with acute onset of jaundice. We used verbal autopsy data from a nationally representative maternal mortality survey to calculate the proportion of maternal deaths associated with jaundice and compared it to previously published estimates. Of all maternal deaths between 2008 and 2010, 23% were associated with jaundice, compared with 19% from 1998 to 2001. Approximately one of five maternal deaths was preceded by jaundice, unchanged in 10 years. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the etiology of these maternal deaths in Bangladesh. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

An investigation into exoplanet transits and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Y.; Banks, T.; Budding, E.; Rhodes, M. D.

2017-06-01

A simple transit model is described along with tests of this model against published results for 4 exoplanet systems (Kepler-1, 2, 8, and 77). Data from the Kepler mission are used. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to obtain realistic error estimates. Optimisation of limb darkening coefficients is subject to data quality. It is more likely for MCMC to derive an empirical limb darkening coefficient for light curves with S/N (signal to noise) above 15. Finally, the model is applied to Kepler data for 4 Kepler candidate systems (KOI 760.01, 767.01, 802.01, and 824.01) with previously unpublished results. Error estimates for these systems are obtained via the MCMC method.

The Persistence of the Gender Gap in Introductory Physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kost, Lauren E.; Pollock, Steven J.; Finkelstein, Noah D.

2008-10-01

We previously showed[l] that despite teaching with interactive engagement techniques, the gap in performance between males and females on conceptual learning surveys persisted from pre- to posttest, at our institution. Such findings were counter to previously published work[2]. Our current work analyzes factors that may influence the observed gender gap in our courses. Posttest conceptual assessment data are modeled using both multiple regression and logistic regression analyses to estimate the gender gap in posttest scores after controlling for background factors that vary by gender. We find that at our institution the gender gap persists in interactive physics classes, but is largely due to differences in physics and math preparation and incoming attitudes and beliefs.

Rejuvenated-stage volcanism after 0.6-m.y. quiescence at West Maui Volcano, Hawaii: New evidence from K-Ar ages and chemistry of Lahaina Volcanics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tagami, Takahiro; Nishimitsu, Yoshitomo; Sherrod, D.R.

2003-01-01

West Maui's rejuvenated-stage Lahaina Volcanics were erupted from four discrete sites. New KAr ages indicate two pulses of volcanism, the older about 0.6 Ma and the younger about 0.4 Ma. Compositionally the lava flows are entirely basanitic, but each pulse is diverse. The underlying postshield-stage Honolua Volcanics were emplaced by about 1.2 Ma on the basis of previously published ages. Therefore the duration of volcanic quiescence prior to rejuvenation is about 0.6 m.y. at West Maui, much longer than estimated previously. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Nose profile morphology and accuracy study of nose profile estimation method in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations.

PubMed

Sarilita, Erli; Rynn, Christopher; Mossey, Peter A; Black, Sue; Oscandar, Fahmi

2018-05-01

This study investigated nose profile morphology and its relationship to the skull in Scottish subadult and Indonesian adult populations, with the aim of improving the accuracy of forensic craniofacial reconstruction. Samples of 86 lateral head cephalograms from Dundee Dental School (mean age, 11.8 years) and 335 lateral head cephalograms from the Universitas Padjadjaran Dental Hospital, Bandung, Indonesia (mean age 24.2 years), were measured. The method of nose profile estimation based on skull morphology previously proposed by Rynn and colleagues in 2010 (FSMP 6:20-34) was tested in this study. Following this method, three nasal aperture-related craniometrics and six nose profile dimensions were measured from the cephalograms. To assess the accuracy of the method, six nose profile dimensions were estimated from the three craniometric parameters using the published method and then compared to the actual nose profile dimensions.In the Scottish subadult population, no sexual dimorphism was evident in the measured dimensions. In contrast, sexual dimorphism of the Indonesian adult population was evident in all craniometric and nose profile dimensions; notably, males exhibited statistically significant larger values than females. The published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) performed better in the Scottish subadult population (mean difference of maximum, 2.35 mm) compared to the Indonesian adult population (mean difference of maximum, 5.42 mm in males and 4.89 mm in females).In addition, regression formulae were derived to estimate nose profile dimensions based on the craniometric measurements for the Indonesian adult population. The published method is not sufficiently accurate for use on the Indonesian population, so the derived method should be used. The accuracy of the published method by Rynn and colleagues (FSMP 6:20-34, 2010) was sufficiently reliable to be applied in Scottish subadult population.

Attention in western Nevada: Preliminary results from earthquake and explosion sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hough, S.E.; Anderson, J.G.; Patton, H.J.

1989-02-01

We present preliminary results from a study of the attenuation of regional seismic waves at frequencies between 1 and 15 Hz and distances up to 250 km in Western Nevada. Following the methods of Anderson and Hough (1984) and Hough et al. (1988), we parameterize the asymptote of the high frequency acceleration spectrum by the two-parameter model. We relate the model parameters to a two-layer model for Q/sub i/ and Q/sub d/, the freuqency-independent and the frequency dependent components of the quality factor. We compare our results to previously published Q studies in the Basin and Range and find thatmore » our estimate of total Q, Q/sub t/, in the shallow crust is consistent with shear wave Q at close distances with previous estimates of coda Q (Singh and Hermann, 1983) and LgQ (Chavez and Priestley, 1986), suggesting that both coda Q and LgQ are insensitive to near-surface contributions to attenuation.« less

Contrasting academic and tobacco industry estimates of illicit cigarette trade: evidence from Warsaw, Poland.

PubMed

Stoklosa, Michal; Ross, Hana

2014-05-01

To compare two different methods for estimating the size of the illicit cigarette market with each other and to contrast the estimates obtained by these two methods with the results of an industry-commissioned study. We used two observational methods: collection of data from packs in smokers' personal possession, and collection of data from packs discarded on streets. The data were obtained in Warsaw, Poland in September 2011 and October 2011. We used tests of independence to compare the results based on the two methods, and to contrast those with the estimate from the industry-commissioned discarded pack collection conducted in September 2011. We found that the proportions of cigarette packs classified as not intended for the Polish market estimated by our two methods were not statistically different. These estimates were 14.6% (95% CI 10.8% to 19.4%) using the survey data (N=400) and 15.6% (95% CI 13.2% to 18.4%) using the discarded pack data (N=754). The industry estimate (22.9%) was higher by nearly a half compared with our estimates, and this difference is statistically significant. Our findings are consistent with previous evidence of the tobacco industry exaggerating the scope of illicit trade and with the general pattern of the industry manipulating evidence to mislead the debate on tobacco control policy in many countries. Collaboration between governments and the tobacco industry to estimate tobacco tax avoidance and evasion is likely to produce upward-biased estimates of illicit cigarette trade. If governments are presented with industry estimates, they should strictly require a disclosure of all methodological details and data used in generating these estimates, and should seek advice from independent experts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The prevalence of pathological gambling among college students: a meta-analytic synthesis, 2005-2013.

PubMed

Nowak, Donald E; Aloe, Ariel M

2014-12-01

The problem of gambling addiction can be especially noteworthy among college and university students, many of whom have the resources, proximity, free time, and desire to become involved in the myriad options of gambling now available. Although limited attention has been paid specifically to college student gambling in the body of literature, there have been two published meta-analyses estimating the prevalence of probable pathological gambling among college students. This present study aims to be the third, presenting an up-to-date proportion of those students exhibiting gambling pathology, and is the first to include international studies from outside the United States and Canada. The purpose of this study was to use the most up-to-date meta-analytical procedures to synthesize the rates of probable pathological gambling for college and university students worldwide. A thorough literature review and coding procedure resulted in 19 independent data estimates retrieved from 18 studies conducted between 2005 and 2013. To synthesize the studies, a random effects model for meta-analysis was applied. The estimated proportion of probable pathological gamblers among the over 13,000 college students surveyed was computed at 10.23%, considerably higher than either of the two previously published meta-analyses, and more than double the rate reported in the first meta-analysis of this type published in 1999. Implications and recommendations for future practice in dealing with college students and gambling addiction are outlined and described for both administrators and mental health professionals.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nisbet, A.F.; Woodman, R.F.M.

A database of soil-to-plant transfer factors for radiocesium and radiostrontium has been compiled for arable crops from published and unpublished sources. The database is more extensive than previous compilations of data published by the International Union of Radioecologists, containing new information for Scandinavia and Greece in particular. It also contains ancillary data on important soil characteristics. The database is sub-divided into 28 soil-crop combinations, covering four soil types and seven crop groups. Statistical analyses showed that transfer factors for radiocesium could not generally be predicted as a function of climatic region, type of experiment, age of contamination, or silt characteristics.more » However, significant relationships accounting for more than 30% of the variability in transfer factor were identified between transfer factors for radiostrontium and soil pH/organic matter status for a few soil-crop combinations. Best estimate transfer factors for radiocesium and radiostrontium were calculated for 28 soil-crop combinations, based on their geometric means: only the edible parts were considered. To predict the likely value of future individual transfer factors, 95% confidence intervals were also derived. A comparison of best estimate transfer factors derived in this study with recommended values published by the International Union of Radioecologists in 1989 and 1992 was made for comparable soil-crop groupings. While there were no significant differences between the best estimate values derived in this study and the 1992 data, radiological assessments that still use 1989 data may be unnecessarily cautious.« less

Parameterizing sorption isotherms using a hybrid global-local fitting procedure.

PubMed

Matott, L Shawn; Singh, Anshuman; Rabideau, Alan J

2017-05-01

Predictive modeling of the transport and remediation of groundwater contaminants requires an accurate description of the sorption process, which is usually provided by fitting an isotherm model to site-specific laboratory data. Commonly used calibration procedures, listed in order of increasing sophistication, include: trial-and-error, linearization, non-linear regression, global search, and hybrid global-local search. Given the considerable variability in fitting procedures applied in published isotherm studies, we investigated the importance of algorithm selection through a series of numerical experiments involving 13 previously published sorption datasets. These datasets, considered representative of state-of-the-art for isotherm experiments, had been previously analyzed using trial-and-error, linearization, or non-linear regression methods. The isotherm expressions were re-fit using a 3-stage hybrid global-local search procedure (i.e. global search using particle swarm optimization followed by Powell's derivative free local search method and Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg non-linear regression). The re-fitted expressions were then compared to previously published fits in terms of the optimized weighted sum of squared residuals (WSSR) fitness function, the final estimated parameters, and the influence on contaminant transport predictions - where easily computed concentration-dependent contaminant retardation factors served as a surrogate measure of likely transport behavior. Results suggest that many of the previously published calibrated isotherm parameter sets were local minima. In some cases, the updated hybrid global-local search yielded order-of-magnitude reductions in the fitness function. In particular, of the candidate isotherms, the Polanyi-type models were most likely to benefit from the use of the hybrid fitting procedure. In some cases, improvements in fitness function were associated with slight (<10%) changes in parameter values, but in other cases significant (>50%) changes in parameter values were noted. Despite these differences, the influence of isotherm misspecification on contaminant transport predictions was quite variable and difficult to predict from inspection of the isotherms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

New constraints on Mars rotation determined from radiometric tracking of the Opportunity Mars Exploration Rover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuchynka, Petr; Folkner, William M.; Konopliv, Alex S.; Parker, Timothy J.; Park, Ryan S.; Le Maistre, Sebastien; Dehant, Veronique

2014-02-01

The Opportunity Mars Exploration Rover remained stationary between January and May 2012 in order to conserve solar energy for running its survival heaters during martian winter. While stationary, extra Doppler tracking was performed in order to allow an improved estimate of the martian precession rate. In this study, we determine Mars rotation by combining the new Opportunity tracking data with historic tracking data from the Viking and Pathfinder landers and tracking data from Mars orbiters (Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter). The estimated rotation parameters are stable in cross-validation tests and compare well with previously published values. In particular, the Mars precession rate is estimated to be -7606.1 ± 3.5 mas/yr. A representation of Mars rotation as a series expansion based on the determined rotation parameters is provided.

Evaluating MEDEVAC Force Structure Requirements Using an Updated Army Scenario, Total Army Analysis Admission Data, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Theater Structure.

PubMed

Fulton, Lawrence; Kerr, Bernie; Inglis, James M; Brooks, Matthew; Bastian, Nathaniel D

2015-07-01

In this study, we re-evaluate air ambulance requirements (rules of allocation) and planning considerations based on an Army-approved, Theater Army Analysis scenario. A previous study using workload only estimated a requirement of 0.4 to 0.6 aircraft per admission, a significant bolus over existence-based rules. In this updated study, we estimate requirements for Phase III (major combat operations) using a simulation grounded in previously published work and Phase IV (stability operations) based on four rules of allocation: unit existence rules, workload factors, theater structure (geography), and manual input. This study improves upon previous work by including the new air ambulance mission requirements of Department of Defense 51001.1, Roles and Functions of the Services, by expanding the analysis over two phases, and by considering unit rotation requirements known as Army Force Generation based on Department of Defense policy. The recommendations of this study are intended to inform future planning factors and already provided decision support to the Army Aviation Branch in determining force structure requirements. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Estimations of the lethal and exposure doses for representative methanol symptoms in humans.

PubMed

Moon, Chan-Seok

2017-01-01

The aim of this review was to estimate the lethal and exposure doses of a representative symptom (blindness) of methanol exposure in humans by reviewing data from previous articles. Available articles published from 1970 to 2016 that investigated the dose-response relationship for methanol exposure (i.e., the exposure concentration and the biological markers/clinical symptoms) were evaluated; the MEDLINE and RISS (Korean search engine) databases were searched. The available data from these articles were carefully selected to estimate the range and median of a lethal human dose. The regression equation and correlation coefficient (between the exposure level and urinary methanol concentration as a biological exposure marker) were assumed from the previous data. The lethal human dose of pure methanol was estimated at 15.8-474 g/person as a range and as 56.2 g/person as the median. The dose-response relationship between methanol vapor in ambient air and urinary methanol concentrations was thought to be correlated. An oral intake of 3.16-11.85 g/person of pure methanol could cause blindness. The lethal dose from respiratory intake was reported to be 4000-13,000 mg/l. The initial concentration of optic neuritis and blindness were shown to be 228.5 and 1103 mg/l, respectively, for a 12-h exposure. The concentration of biological exposure indices and clinical symptoms for methanol exposure might have a dose-response relationship according to previous articles. Even a low dose of pure methanol through oral or respiratory exposure might be lethal or result in blindness as a clinical symptom.

Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stanley, Thomas R.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

2015-01-01

The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

Mixed Model Association with Family-Biased Case-Control Ascertainment.

PubMed

Hayeck, Tristan J; Loh, Po-Ru; Pollack, Samuela; Gusev, Alexander; Patterson, Nick; Zaitlen, Noah A; Price, Alkes L

2017-01-05

Mixed models have become the tool of choice for genetic association studies; however, standard mixed model methods may be poorly calibrated or underpowered under family sampling bias and/or case-control ascertainment. Previously, we introduced a liability threshold-based mixed model association statistic (LTMLM) to address case-control ascertainment in unrelated samples. Here, we consider family-biased case-control ascertainment, where case and control subjects are ascertained non-randomly with respect to family relatedness. Previous work has shown that this type of ascertainment can severely bias heritability estimates; we show here that it also impacts mixed model association statistics. We introduce a family-based association statistic (LT-Fam) that is robust to this problem. Similar to LTMLM, LT-Fam is computed from posterior mean liabilities (PML) under a liability threshold model; however, LT-Fam uses published narrow-sense heritability estimates to avoid the problem of biased heritability estimation, enabling correct calibration. In simulations with family-biased case-control ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated (average χ 2 = 1.00-1.02 for null SNPs), whereas the Armitage trend test (ATT), standard mixed model association (MLM), and case-control retrospective association test (CARAT) were mis-calibrated (e.g., average χ 2 = 0.50-1.22 for MLM, 0.89-2.65 for CARAT). LT-Fam also attained higher power than other methods in some settings. In 1,259 type 2 diabetes-affected case subjects and 5,765 control subjects from the CARe cohort, downsampled to induce family-biased ascertainment, LT-Fam was correctly calibrated whereas ATT, MLM, and CARAT were again mis-calibrated. Our results highlight the importance of modeling family sampling bias in case-control datasets with related samples. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Screening and Treatment for Hepatitis C in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, Do Young; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Jun, Byungyool; Kim, Tae Hyun; Park, Sohee; Ward, Thomas; Webster, Samantha; McEwan, Phil

2017-01-01

Background and Aims This study aims to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a one-time hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening and treatment program in South Korea where hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevails, in people aged 40–70, compared to current practice (no screening). Methods A published Markov model was used in conjunction with a screening and treatment decision tree to model patient cohorts, aged 40–49, 50–59 and 60–69 years, distributed across chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and compensated cirrhosis (CC) health states (82.5% and 17.5%, respectively). Based on a published seroepidemiology study, HCV prevalence was estimated at 0.60%, 0.80% and 1.53%, respectively. An estimated 71.7% of the population was screened. Post-diagnosis, 39.4% of patients were treated with a newly available all-oral direct-acting antiviral (DAA) regimen over 5 years. Published rates of sustained virologic response, disease management costs, transition rates and utilities were utilised. Results Screening resulted in the identification of 43,635 previously undiagnosed patients across all cohorts. One-time HCV screening and treatment was estimated to be cost-effective across all cohorts; predicted incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $5,714 to $8,889 per quality-adjusted life year gained. Incremental costs associated with screening, treatment and disease management ranged from $156.47 to $181.85 million USD; lifetime costs-offsets associated with the avoidance of end stage liver disease complications ranged from $51.47 to $57.48 million USD. Conclusions One-time HCV screening and treatment in South Korean people aged 40–70 is likely to be highly cost-effective compared to the current practice of no screening. PMID:28060834

Mixed-stock analysis reveals the migrations of juvenile hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) in the Caribbean Sea.

PubMed

Bowen, B W; Grant, W S; Hillis-Starr, Z; Shaver, D J; Bjorndal, K A; Bolten, A B; Bass, A L

2007-01-01

Hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) migrate between nesting beaches and feeding habitats that are often associated with tropical reefs, but it is uncertain which nesting colonies supply which feeding habitats. To address this gap in hawksbill biology, we compile previously published and new mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype data for 10 nesting colonies (N = 347) in the western Atlantic and compare these profiles to four feeding populations and four previously published feeding samples (N = 626). Nesting colonies differ significantly in mtDNA haplotype frequencies (Phi(ST) = 0.588, P < 0.001), corroborating earlier conclusions of nesting site fidelity and setting the stage for mixed-stock analysis. Feeding aggregations show lower but significant structure (Phi(ST) = 0.089, P < 0.001), indicating that foraging populations are not homogenous across the Caribbean Sea. Bayesian mixed-stock estimates of the origins of juveniles in foraging areas show a highly significant, but shallow, correlation with nesting population size (r = 0.378, P = 0.004), supporting the premise that larger rookeries contribute more juveniles to feeding areas. A significant correlation between the estimated contribution and geographical distance from nesting areas (r = -0.394, P = 0.003) demonstrates the influence of proximity on recruitment to feeding areas. The influence of oceanic currents is illustrated by pelagic stage juveniles stranded in Texas, which are assigned primarily (93%) to the upstream rookery in Yucatan. One juvenile had a haplotype previously identified only in the eastern Atlantic, invoking rare trans-oceanic migrations. The mixed-stock analysis demonstrates that harvests in feeding habitats will impact nesting colonies throughout the region, with the greatest detriment to nearby nesting populations.

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Sørgârd, Eirik; Behrens, Hanna Lee; Brett, Per Olaf; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

2007-06-01

Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO2 and SO2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO2 emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg (CO2), growing to about 634 Tg (CO2) in 2002. The corresponding SO2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO2) and 8.5 Tg (SO2), respectively. Our activity-based estimates of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an important part of the total fuel consumption (˜10%).

Resolving the Origin of Rabbit Hemorrhagic Disease Virus: Insights from an Investigation of the Viral Stocks Released in Australia

PubMed Central

Eden, John-Sebastian; Read, Andrew J.; Duckworth, Janine A.; Strive, Tanja

2015-01-01

To resolve the evolutionary history of rabbit hemorrhagic disease virus (RHDV), we performed a genomic analysis of the viral stocks imported and released as a biocontrol measure in Australia, as well as a global phylogenetic analysis. Importantly, conflicts were identified between the sequences determined here and those previously published that may have affected evolutionary rate estimates. By removing likely erroneous sequences, we show that RHDV emerged only shortly before its initial description in China. PMID:26378178

Prevalence, Adverse Events, and Factors Associated with Dietary Supplement and Nutritional Supplement Use by US Navy and Marine Corps Personnel

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-12

personnel. Objective The aim of this cross-sectional study was to investigate dietary and nutri- tional supplement use in Navy and Marine Corps personnel...been published regularly,7-10 and a recent study of a nationally representative sample estimated that 23,005 emergency department visits and 2,154...informa- tion on dietary supplement use by service members.21 To this end, previous studies were conducted in Army,17 Air Force,18 and Coast Guard19

Methods for estimating confidence intervals in interrupted time series analyses of health interventions.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang; Wagner, Anita K; Soumerai, Stephen B; Ross-Degnan, Dennis

2009-02-01

Interrupted time series (ITS) is a strong quasi-experimental research design, which is increasingly applied to estimate the effects of health services and policy interventions. We describe and illustrate two methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) around absolute and relative changes in outcomes calculated from segmented regression parameter estimates. We used multivariate delta and bootstrapping methods (BMs) to construct CIs around relative changes in level and trend, and around absolute changes in outcome based on segmented linear regression analyses of time series data corrected for autocorrelated errors. Using previously published time series data, we estimated CIs around the effect of prescription alerts for interacting medications with warfarin on the rate of prescriptions per 10,000 warfarin users per month. Both the multivariate delta method (MDM) and the BM produced similar results. BM is preferred for calculating CIs of relative changes in outcomes of time series studies, because it does not require large sample sizes when parameter estimates are obtained correctly from the model. Caution is needed when sample size is small.

The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

PubMed Central

French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

2010-01-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

PubMed

McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

2010-04-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconciling geodetic and geological estimates of recent plate motion across the Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMets, C.; Calais, E.; Merkouriev, S.

2017-01-01

We use recently published, high-resolution reconstructions of the Southwest Indian Ridge to test whether a previously described systematic difference between Global Positioning System (GPS) and 3.16-Myr-average estimates of seafloor spreading rates between Antarctica and Africa is evidence for a recent slowdown in Southwest Indian Ridge seafloor spreading rates. Along the Nubia-Antarctic segment of the ridge, seafloor opening rates that are estimated with the new, high-resolution reconstructions and corrected for outward displacement agree well with geodetic rate estimates and reduce previously reported, highly significant non-closure of the Nubia-Antarctic-Sur plate circuit. The observations are inconsistent with a slowdown in spreading rates and instead indicate that Nubia-Antarctic plate motion has been steady since at least 5.2 Ma. Lwandle-Antarctic seafloor spreading rates that are estimated from the new high-resolution reconstructions differ insignificantly from a GPS estimate, thereby implying steady Lwandle-Antarctic plate motion since 5.2 Ma. Between the Somalia and Antarctic plates, the new Southwest Indian Ridge reconstructions eliminate roughly half of the systematic difference between the GPS and MORVEL spreading rate estimates.We interpret the available observations as evidence that Somalia-Antarctic spreading rates have been steady since at least 5.2 Ma and postulate that the remaining difference is attributable to random and/or systematic errors in the plate kinematic estimates and the combined effects of insufficient geodetic sampling of undeforming areas of the Somalia plate, glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica and transient deformation triggered by the 1998 Mw = 8.2 Antarctic earthquake, the 2004 Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake, or possibly other large historic earthquakes.

Six degree-of-freedom analysis of hip, knee, ankle and foot provides updated understanding of biomechanical work during human walking.

PubMed

Zelik, Karl E; Takahashi, Kota Z; Sawicki, Gregory S

2015-03-01

Measuring biomechanical work performed by humans and other animals is critical for understanding muscle-tendon function, joint-specific contributions and energy-saving mechanisms during locomotion. Inverse dynamics is often employed to estimate joint-level contributions, and deformable body estimates can be used to study work performed by the foot. We recently discovered that these commonly used experimental estimates fail to explain whole-body energy changes observed during human walking. By re-analyzing previously published data, we found that about 25% (8 J) of total positive energy changes of/about the body's center-of-mass and >30% of the energy changes during the Push-off phase of walking were not explained by conventional joint- and segment-level work estimates, exposing a gap in our fundamental understanding of work production during gait. Here, we present a novel Energy-Accounting analysis that integrates various empirical measures of work and energy to elucidate the source of unexplained biomechanical work. We discovered that by extending conventional 3 degree-of-freedom (DOF) inverse dynamics (estimating rotational work about joints) to 6DOF (rotational and translational) analysis of the hip, knee, ankle and foot, we could fully explain the missing positive work. This revealed that Push-off work performed about the hip may be >50% greater than conventionally estimated (9.3 versus 6.0 J, P=0.0002, at 1.4 m s(-1)). Our findings demonstrate that 6DOF analysis (of hip-knee-ankle-foot) better captures energy changes of the body than more conventional 3DOF estimates. These findings refine our fundamental understanding of how work is distributed within the body, which has implications for assistive technology, biomechanical simulations and potentially clinical treatment. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biasi, G.P.; Weldon, R.J.; Fumal, T.E.; Seitz, G.G.

2002-01-01

We introduce a quantitative approach to paleoearthquake dating and apply it to paleoseismic data from the Wrightwood and Pallett Creek sites on the southern San Andreas fault. We illustrate how stratigraphic ordering, sedimentological, and historical data can be used quantitatively in the process of estimating earthquake ages. Calibrated radiocarbon age distributions are used directly from layer dating through recurrence intervals and recurrence probability estimation. The method does not eliminate subjective judgements in event dating, but it does provide a means of systematically and objectively approaching the dating process. Date distributions for the most recent 14 events at Wrightwood are based on sample and contextual evidence in Fumal et al. (2002) and site context and slip history in Weldon et al. (2002). Pallett Creek event and dating descriptions are from published sources. For the five most recent events at Wrightwood, our results are consistent with previously published estimates, with generally comparable or narrower uncertainties. For Pallett Creek, our earthquake date estimates generally overlap with previous results but typically have broader uncertainties. Some event date estimates are very sensitive to details of data interpretation. The historical earthquake in 1857 ruptured the ground at both sites but is not constrained by radiocarbon data. Radiocarbon ages, peat accumulation rates, and historical constraints at Pallett Creek for event X yield a date estimate in the earliest 1800s and preclude a date in the late 1600s. This event is almost certainly the historical 1812 earthquake, as previously concluded by Sieh et al. (1989). This earthquake also produced ground deformation at Wrightwood. All events at Pallett Creek, except for event T, about A.D. 1360, and possibly event I, about A.D. 960, have corresponding events at Wrightwood with some overlap in age ranges. Event T falls during a period of low sedimentation at Wrightwood when conditions were not favorable for recording earthquake evidence. Previously proposed correlations of Pallett Creek X with Wrightwood W3 in the 1690s and Pallett Creek event V with W5 around 1480 (Fumal et al., 1993) appear unlikely after our dating reevaluation. Apparent internal inconsistencies among event, layer, and dating relationships around events R and V identify them as candidates for further investigation at the site. Conditional probabilities of earthquake recurrence were estimated using Poisson, lognormal, and empirical models. The presence of 12 or 13 events at Wrightwood during the same interval that 10 events are reported at Pallett Creek is reflected in mean recurrence intervals of 105 and 135 years, respectively. Average Poisson model 30-year conditional probabilities are about 20% at Pallett Creek and 25% at Wrightwood. The lognormal model conditional probabilities are somewhat higher, about 25% for Pallett Creek and 34% for Wrightwood. Lognormal variance ??ln estimates of 0.76 and 0.70, respectively, imply only weak time predictability. Conditional probabilities of 29% and 46%, respectively, were estimated for an empirical distribution derived from the data alone. Conditional probability uncertainties are dominated by the brevity of the event series; dating uncertainty contributes only secondarily. Wrightwood and Pallett Creek event chronologies both suggest variations in recurrence interval with time, hinting that some form of recurrence rate modulation may be at work, but formal testing shows that neither series is more ordered than might be produced by a Poisson process.

High-resolution estimates of Nubia-Somalia plate motion since 20 Ma from reconstructions of the Southwest Indian Ridge, Red Sea, and Gulf of Aden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMets, C.; Merkuryev, S. A.

2015-12-01

We estimate Nubia-Somalia rotations at ~1-Myr intervals for the past 20 Myr from newly available, high-resolution reconstructions of the Southwest Indian Ridge and reconstructions of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The former rotations are based on many more data, extend farther back in time, and have more temporal resolution than has previously been the case. Nubia-Somalia plate motion has remained remarkably steady since 5.2 Ma. For example, at the northern end of the East Africa rift, our Nubia-Somalia plate motion estimates at six different times between 0.78 Ma and 5.2 Ma agree to within 3% with the rift-normal component of motion that is extrapolated from the recently estimated Saria et al. (2014) GPS angular velocity. Over the past 10.6 Myr, the Nubia-Somalia rotations predict 42±4 km of rift-normal extension across the northern segment of the Main Ethiopian Rift. This agrees with approximate minimum and maximum estimates of 40 km and 53 km for post-10.6-Myr extension from seismological surveys of this narrow part of the plate boundary and is also close to 55-km and 48±3 km estimates from published and our own reconstructions of the Nubia-Arabia and Somalia-Arabia seafloorspreading histories for the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Our new rotations exclude at high confidence level two previously published estimates of Nubia-Somalia motion based on inversions of Chron 5n.2 along the Southwest Indian Ridge, which predict rift-normal extensions of 13±14 km and 129±16 km across the Main Ethiopian Rift since 11 Ma. Constraints on Nubia-Somalia motion before ~15 Ma are weaker due to sparse coverage of pre-15-Myr magnetic reversals along the Nubia-Antarctic plate boundary, but appear to require motion before 15 Ma. Nubia-Somalia rotations that we estimate from a probabilistic analysis of geometric and age constraints from the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are consistent with those determined from Southwest Indian Ridge data, particularly for the past 11 Myr. Nubia-Somalia rotations determined from the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden rotations and Southwest Indian Ridge rotations independently predict that motion during its oldest phase was highly oblique to the rift and a factor-of-two or more faster than at present, although large uncertainties remain in the rotation estimates for times before ~15 Ma.

A spatial and genetic analysis of Cowbird host selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hahn, D.C.; Sedgwick, J.A.; Painter, I.S.; Casna, N.J.; Morrison, Michael L.; Hall, Linnea S.; Robinson, Scott K.; Rothstein, Stephen I.; Hahn, D. Caldwell; Rich, Terrell D.

1999-01-01

Our study of brood parasitism patterns in forest communities revealed the egg-laying frequency and host selection patterns of female cowbirds. By integrating molecular genetics and spatial data, we have the first published estimate on cowbird laying rates in field studies. The 29 females in the study laid only 1-5 eggs each, much lower than previous estimates from captive cowbirds and extrapolations from ovarian development in capture/recapture studies that had suggested that as many as 40 eggs could be laid per individual cowbird. Cowbird females also were shown for the first time to lay significantly more eggs within the home range areas they established rather than outside the home range. No patterns were uncovered for individual females preferentially parasitizing particular host species

Underestimating Calorie Content When Healthy Foods Are Present: An Averaging Effect or a Reference-Dependent Anchoring Effect?

PubMed Central

Forwood, Suzanna E.; Ahern, Amy; Hollands, Gareth J.; Fletcher, Paul C.; Marteau, Theresa M.

2013-01-01

Objective Previous studies have shown that estimations of the calorie content of an unhealthy main meal food tend to be lower when the food is shown alongside a healthy item (e.g. fruit or vegetables) than when shown alone. This effect has been called the negative calorie illusion and has been attributed to averaging the unhealthy (vice) and healthy (virtue) foods leading to increased perceived healthiness and reduced calorie estimates. The current study aimed to replicate and extend these findings to test the hypothesized mediating effect of ratings of healthiness of foods on calorie estimates. Methods In three online studies, participants were invited to make calorie estimates of combinations of foods. Healthiness ratings of the food were also assessed. Results The first two studies failed to replicate the negative calorie illusion. In a final study, the use of a reference food, closely following a procedure from a previously published study, did elicit a negative calorie illusion. No evidence was found for a mediating role of healthiness estimates. Conclusion The negative calorie illusion appears to be a function of the contrast between a food being judged and a reference, supporting the hypothesis that the negative calorie illusion arises from the use of a reference-dependent anchoring and adjustment heuristic and not from an ‘averaging’ effect, as initially proposed. This finding is consistent with existing data on sequential calorie estimates, and highlights a significant impact of the order in which foods are viewed on how foods are evaluated. PMID:23967216

Estimation of the Contribution of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4 in Repaglinide Metabolism by Human Liver Microsomes Under Various Buffer Conditions.

PubMed

Kudo, Toshiyuki; Goda, Hitomi; Yokosuka, Yuki; Tanaka, Ryo; Komatsu, Seina; Ito, Kiyomi

2017-09-01

We have previously reported that the microsomal activities of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4 largely depend on the buffer condition used in in vitro metabolic studies, with different patterns observed between the 2 isozymes. In the present study, therefore, the possibility of buffer condition dependence of the fraction metabolized by CYP2C8 (fm2C8) for repaglinide, a dual substrate of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4, was estimated using human liver microsomes under various buffer conditions. Montelukast and ketoconazole showed a potent and concentration-dependent inhibition of CYP2C8-mediated paclitaxel 6α-hydroxylation and CYP3A4-mediated triazolam α-hydroxylation, respectively, without dependence on the buffer condition. Repaglinide depletion was inhibited by both inhibitors, but the degree of inhibition depended on buffer conditions. Based on these results, the contribution of CYP2C8 in repaglinide metabolism was estimated to be larger than that of CYP3A4 under each buffer condition, and the fm2C8 value of 0.760, estimated in 50 mM phosphate buffer, was the closest to the value (0.801) estimated in our previous modeling analysis based on its concentration increase in a clinical drug interaction study. Researchers should be aware of the possibility of buffer condition affecting the estimated contribution of enzyme(s) in drug metabolism processes involving multiple enzymes. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Feasibility assessment of yttrium-90 liver radioembolization imaging using amplitude-based gated PET/CT

PubMed Central

Acuff, Shelley N.; Neveu, Melissa L.; Syed, Mumtaz; Kaman, Austin D.; Fu, Yitong

2018-01-01

Purpose The usage of PET/computed tomography (CT) to monitor hepatocellular carcinoma patients following yttrium-90 (90Y) radioembolization has increased. Respiratory motion causes liver movement, which can be corrected using gating techniques at the expense of added noise. This work examines the use of amplitude-based gating on 90Y-PET/CT and its potential impact on diagnostic integrity. Patients and methods Patients were imaged using PET/CT following 90Y radioembolization. A respiratory band was used to collect respiratory cycle data. Patient data were processed as both standard and motion-corrected images. Regions of interest were drawn and compared using three methods. Activity concentrations were calculated and converted into dose estimates using previously determined and published scaling factors. Diagnostic assessments were performed using a binary scale created from published 90Y-PET/CT image interpretation guidelines. Results Estimates of radiation dose were increased (P<0.05) when using amplitude-gating methods with 90Y PET/CT imaging. Motion-corrected images show increased noise, but the diagnostic determination of success, using the Kao criteria, did not change between static and motion-corrected data. Conclusion Amplitude-gated PET/CT following 90Y radioembolization is feasible and may improve 90Y dose estimates while maintaining diagnostic assessment integrity. PMID:29351124

Risk factors for persistent problems following acute whiplash injury: update of a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Walton, David M; Macdermid, Joy C; Giorgianni, Anthony A; Mascarenhas, Joanna C; West, Stephen C; Zammit, Caroline A

2013-02-01

Systematic review and meta-analysis. To update a previous review and meta-analysis on risk factors for persistent problems following whiplash secondary to a motor vehicle accident. Prognosis in whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) has become an active area of research, perhaps owing to the difficulty of treating chronic problems. A previously published review and meta-analysis of prognostic factors included primary sources up to May 2007. Since that time, more research has become available, and an update to that original review is warranted. A systematic search of international databases was conducted, with rigorous inclusion criteria focusing on studies published between May 2007 and May 2012. Articles were scored, and data were extracted and pooled to estimate the odds ratio for any factor that had at least 3 independent data points in the literature. Four new cohorts (n = 1121) were identified. In combination with findings of a previous review, 12 variables were found to be significant predictors of poor outcome following whiplash, 9 of which were new (n = 2) or revised (n = 7) as a result of additional data. The significant variables included high baseline pain intensity (greater than 5.5/10), report of headache at inception, less than postsecondary education, no seatbelt in use during the accident, report of low back pain at inception, high Neck Disability Index score (greater than 14.5/50), preinjury neck pain, report of neck pain at inception (regardless of intensity), high catastrophizing, female sex, WAD grade 2 or 3, and WAD grade 3 alone. Those variables robust to publication bias included high pain intensity, female sex, report of headache at inception, less than postsecondary education, high Neck Disability Index score, and WAD grade 2 or 3. Three existing variables (preaccident history of headache, rear-end collision, older age) and 1 additional novel variable (collision severity) were refined or added in this updated review but showed no significant predictive value. This review identified 2 additional prognostic factors and refined the estimates of 7 previously identified factors, bringing the total number of significant predictors across the 2 reviews to 12. These factors can be easily identified in a clinical setting to provide estimates of prognosis following whiplash.

Using aggregate data to estimate the standard error of a treatment-covariate interaction in an individual patient data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Cumberland, William G

2012-05-01

Subgroup analyses are important to medical research because they shed light on the heterogeneity of treatment effectts. A treatment-covariate interaction in an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis is the most reliable means to estimate how a subgroup factor modifies a treatment's effectiveness. However, owing to the challenges in collecting participant data, an approach based on aggregate data might be the only option. In these circumstances, it would be useful to assess the relative efficiency and power loss of a subgroup analysis without patient-level data. We present methods that use aggregate data to estimate the standard error of an IPD meta-analysis' treatment-covariate interaction for regression models of a continuous or dichotomous patient outcome. Numerical studies indicate that the estimators have good accuracy. An application to a previously published meta-regression illustrates the practical utility of the methodology. © 2012 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Validation of equations for pleural effusion volume estimation by ultrasonography.

PubMed

Hassan, Maged; Rizk, Rana; Essam, Hatem; Abouelnour, Ahmed

2017-12-01

To validate the accuracy of previously published equations that estimate pleural effusion volume using ultrasonography. Only equations using simple measurements were tested. Three measurements were taken at the posterior axillary line for each case with effusion: lateral height of effusion ( H ), distance between collapsed lung and chest wall ( C ) and distance between lung and diaphragm ( D ). Cases whose effusion was aspirated to dryness were included and drained volume was recorded. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to determine the predictive accuracy of five equations against the actual volume of aspirated effusion. 46 cases with effusion were included. The most accurate equation in predicting effusion volume was ( H  +  D ) × 70 (ICC 0.83). The simplest and yet accurate equation was H  × 100 (ICC 0.79). Pleural effusion height measured by ultrasonography gives a reasonable estimate of effusion volume. Incorporating distance between lung base and diaphragm into estimation improves accuracy from 79% with the first method to 83% with the latter.

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

A Bayesian Approach for Measurements of Stray Neutrons at Proton Therapy Facilities: Quantifying Neutron Dose Uncertainty.

PubMed

Dommert, M; Reginatto, M; Zboril, M; Fiedler, F; Helmbrecht, S; Enghardt, W; Lutz, B

2017-11-28

Bonner sphere measurements are typically analyzed using unfolding codes. It is well known that it is difficult to get reliable estimates of uncertainties for standard unfolding procedures. An alternative approach is to analyze the data using Bayesian parameter estimation. This method provides reliable estimates of the uncertainties of neutron spectra leading to rigorous estimates of uncertainties of the dose. We extend previous Bayesian approaches and apply the method to stray neutrons in proton therapy environments by introducing a new parameterized model which describes the main features of the expected neutron spectra. The parameterization is based on information that is available from measurements and detailed Monte Carlo simulations. The validity of this approach has been validated with results of an experiment using Bonner spheres carried out at the experimental hall of the OncoRay proton therapy facility in Dresden. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hospital charges associated with motorcycle crash factors: a quantile regression analysis.

PubMed

Olsen, Cody S; Thomas, Andrea M; Cook, Lawrence J

2014-08-01

Previous studies of motorcycle crash (MC) related hospital charges use trauma registries and hospital records, and do not adjust for the number of motorcyclists not requiring medical attention. This may lead to conservative estimates of helmet use effectiveness. MC records were probabilistically linked with emergency department and hospital records to obtain total hospital charges. Missing data were imputed. Multivariable quantile regression estimated reductions in hospital charges associated with helmet use and other crash factors. Motorcycle helmets were associated with reduced median hospital charges of $256 (42% reduction) and reduced 98th percentile of $32,390 (33% reduction). After adjusting for other factors, helmets were associated with reductions in charges in all upper percentiles studied. Quantile regression models described homogenous and heterogeneous associations between other crash factors and charges. Quantile regression comprehensively describes associations between crash factors and hospital charges. Helmet use among motorcyclists is associated with decreased hospital charges. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Atmospheric histories of halocarbons from analysis of Antarctic firn air: Methyl bromide, methyl chloride, chloroform, and dichloromethane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trudinger, C. M.; Etheridge, D. M.; Sturrock, G. A.; Fraser, P. J.; Krummel, P. B.; McCulloch, A.

2004-11-01

We reconstruct atmospheric levels of methyl bromide (CH3Br), methyl chloride (CH3Cl), chloroform (CHCl3), and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) back to before 1940 using measurements of air extracted from firn on Law Dome in Antarctica. The firn air at this site has a relatively narrow age spread, giving high time resolution reconstructions. The CH3Br reconstructions confirm previously measured firn records but with more temporal structure. Our CH3Cl reconstruction is slightly different from previous reconstructions, raising some questions about CH3Cl in the firn. Our reconstructions for CHCl3 and CH2Cl2 are the first published records of concentration prior to direct atmospheric measurements. A two-box atmospheric model is used to investigate the budgets of these gases. Much of the variation in CH3Cl can be explained by biomass burning emissions that increase up to 1980 and then are relatively stable apart from some high burning years such as 1997-1998. The CHCl3 firn reconstruction suggests that the anthropogenic source for CHCl3 is greater than previously thought, with human influence on the soil source a possible important contributor here. The CH2Cl2 firn reconstruction is consistent with industrial emission estimates based on audited sales data but suggests that the ocean source of CH2Cl2 is less than previously estimated.

A method for estimating the probability of lightning causing a methane ignition in an underground mine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sacks, H.K.; Novak, T.

2008-03-15

During the past decade, several methane/air explosions in abandoned or sealed areas of underground coal mines have been attributed to lightning. Previously published work by the authors showed, through computer simulations, that currents from lightning could propagate down steel-cased boreholes and ignite explosive methane/air mixtures. The presented work expands on the model and describes a methodology based on IEEE Standard 1410-2004 to estimate the probability of an ignition. The methodology provides a means to better estimate the likelihood that an ignition could occur underground and, more importantly, allows the calculation of what-if scenarios to investigate the effectiveness of engineering controlsmore » to reduce the hazard. The computer software used for calculating fields and potentials is also verified by comparing computed results with an independently developed theoretical model of electromagnetic field propagation through a conductive medium.« less

PMICALC: an R code-based software for estimating post-mortem interval (PMI) compatible with Windows, Mac and Linux operating systems.

PubMed

Muñoz-Barús, José I; Rodríguez-Calvo, María Sol; Suárez-Peñaranda, José M; Vieira, Duarte N; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Febrero-Bande, Manuel

2010-01-30

In legal medicine the correct determination of the time of death is of utmost importance. Recent advances in estimating post-mortem interval (PMI) have made use of vitreous humour chemistry in conjunction with Linear Regression, but the results are questionable. In this paper we present PMICALC, an R code-based freeware package which estimates PMI in cadavers of recent death by measuring the concentrations of potassium ([K+]), hypoxanthine ([Hx]) and urea ([U]) in the vitreous humor using two different regression models: Additive Models (AM) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), which offer more flexibility than the previously used Linear Regression. The results from both models are better than those published to date and can give numerical expression of PMI with confidence intervals and graphic support within 20 min. The program also takes into account the cause of death. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genome size and chromosome number in velvet worms (Onychophora).

PubMed

Jeffery, Nicholas W; Oliveira, Ivo S; Gregory, T Ryan; Rowell, David M; Mayer, Georg

2012-12-01

The Onychophora (velvet worms) represents a small group of invertebrates (~180 valid species), which is commonly united with Tardigrada and Arthropoda in a clade called Panarthropoda. As with the majority of invertebrate taxa, genome size data are very limited for the Onychophora, with only one previously published estimate. Here we use both flow cytometry and Feulgen image analysis densitometry to provide genome size estimates for seven species of velvet worms from both major subgroups, Peripatidae and Peripatopsidae, along with karyotype data for each species. Genome sizes in these species range from roughly 5-19 pg, with densitometric estimates being slightly larger than those obtained by flow cytometry for all species. Chromosome numbers range from 2n = 8 to 2n = 54. No relationship is evident between genome size, chromosome number, or reproductive mode. Various avenues for future genomic research are presented based on these results.

PAF: A software tool to estimate free-geometry extended bodies of anomalous pressure from surface deformation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camacho, A. G.; Fernández, J.; Cannavò, F.

2018-02-01

We present a software package to carry out inversions of surface deformation data (any combination of InSAR, GPS, and terrestrial data, e.g., EDM, levelling) as produced by 3D free-geometry extended bodies with anomalous pressure changes. The anomalous structures are described as an aggregation of elementary cells (whose effects are estimated as coming from point sources) in an elastic half space. The linear inverse problem (considering some simple regularization conditions) is solved by means of an exploratory approach. This software represents the open implementation of a previously published methodology (Camacho et al., 2011). It can be freely used with large data sets (e.g. InSAR data sets) or with data coming from small control networks (e.g. GPS monitoring data), mainly in volcanic areas, to estimate the expected pressure bodies representing magmatic intrusions. Here, the software is applied to some real test cases.

The contribution of glacier melt to streamflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schaner, Neil; Voisin, Nathalie; Nijssen, Bart

2012-09-13

Ongoing and projected future changes in glacier extent and water storage globally have lead to concerns about the implications for water supplies. However, the current magnitude of glacier contributions to river runoff is not well known, nor is the population at risk to future glacier changes. We estimate an upper bound on glacier melt contribution to seasonal streamflow by computing the energy balance of glaciers globally. Melt water quantities are computed as a fraction of total streamflow simulated using a hydrology model and the melt fraction is tracked down the stream network. In general, our estimates of the glacier meltmore » contribution to streamflow are lower than previously published values. Nonetheless, we find that globally an estimated 225 (36) million people live in river basins where maximum seasonal glacier melt contributes at least 10% (25%) of streamflow, mostly in the High Asia region.« less

Oceanic Fluxes of Mass, Heat and Freshwater: A Global Estimate and Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

MacDonald, Alison Marguerite

1995-01-01

Data from fifteen globally distributed, modern, high resolution, hydrographic oceanic transects are combined in an inverse calculation using large scale box models. The models provide estimates of the global meridional heat and freshwater budgets and are used to examine the sensitivity of the global circulation, both inter and intra-basin exchange rates, to a variety of external constraints provided by estimates of Ekman, boundary current and throughflow transports. A solution is found which is consistent with both the model physics and the global data set, despite a twenty five year time span and a lack of seasonal consistency among the data. The overall pattern of the global circulation suggested by the models is similar to that proposed in previously published local studies and regional reviews. However, significant qualitative and quantitative differences exist. These differences are due both to the model definition and to the global nature of the data set.

Inner Structure in the TW Hya Circumstellar Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akeson, Rachel L.; Millan-Gabet, R.; Ciardi, D.; Boden, A.; Sargent, A.; Monnier, J.; McAlister, H.; ten Brummelaar, T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.

2011-05-01

TW Hya is a nearby (50 pc) young stellar object with an estimated age of 10 Myr and signs of active accretion. Previous modeling of the circumstellar disk has shown that the inner disk contains optically thin material, placing this object in the class of "transition disks". We present new near-infrared interferometric observations of the disk material and use these data, as well as previously published, spatially resolved data at 10 microns and 7 mm, to constrain disk models based on a standard flared disk structure. Our model demonstrates that the constraints imposed by the spatially resolved data can be met with a physically plausible disk but this requires a disk containing not only an inner gap in the optically thick disk as previously suggested, but also some optically thick material within this gap. Our model is consistent with the suggestion by previous authors of a planet with an orbital radius of a few AU. This work was conducted at the NASA Exoplanet Science Institute, California Institute of Technology.

Hamaker constants of iron oxide nanoparticles.

PubMed

Faure, Bertrand; Salazar-Alvarez, German; Bergström, Lennart

2011-07-19

The Hamaker constants for iron oxide nanoparticles in various media have been calculated using Lifshitz theory. Expressions for the dielectric responses of three iron oxide phases (magnetite, maghemite, and hematite) were derived from recently published optical data. The nonretarded Hamaker constants for the iron oxide nanoparticles interacting across water, A(1w1) = 33 - 39 zJ, correlate relatively well with previous reports, whereas the calculated values in nonpolar solvents (hexane and toluene), A(131) = 9 - 29 zJ, are much lower than the previous estimates, particularly for magnetite. The magnitude of van der Waals interactions varies significantly between the studied phases (magnetite < maghemite < hematite), which highlights the importance of a thorough characterization of the particles. The contribution of magnetic dispersion interactions for particle sizes in the superparamagnetic regime was found to be negligible. Previous conjectures related to colloidal stability and self-assembly have been revisited on the basis of the new Lifshitz values of the Hamaker constants.

Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

PubMed

Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

2015-01-01

Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used together to describe the relationship between time trees and a set of fossil data, which we recommend be phylogenetically vetted and referred on the basis of apomorphy. Differences from previously proposed metrics and the utility of MDI and DIG range are illustrated in three empirical case studies from angiosperms, ostracods, and birds. These case studies also illustrate the ways in which MDI and DIG range may be used to assess time trees resultant from analyses varying in calibration regime, divergence dating approach or molecular sequence data analyzed. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Contribution of soil respiration to the global carbon equation.

PubMed

Xu, Ming; Shang, Hua

2016-09-20

Soil respiration (Rs) is the second largest carbon flux next to GPP between the terrestrial ecosystem (the largest organic carbon pool) and the atmosphere at a global scale. Given their critical role in the global carbon cycle, Rs measurement and modeling issues have been well reviewed in previous studies. In this paper, we briefly review advances in soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition processes and the factors affecting Rs. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of Rs measurements available in the literature and found that most of the measurements were conducted in North America, Europe, and East Asia, with major gaps in Africa, East Europe, North Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia, especially in dry ecosystems. We discuss the potential problems of measuring Rs on slope soils and propose using obliquely-cut soil collars to solve the existing problems. We synthesize previous estimates of global Rs flux and find that the estimates ranged from 50 PgC/yr to 98 PgC/yr and the error associated with each estimation was also high (4 PgC/yr to 33.2 PgC/yr). Using a newly integrated database of Rs measurements and the MODIS vegetation map, we estimate that the global annual Rs flux is 94.3 PgC/yr with an estimation error of 17.9 PgC/yr at a 95% confidence level. The uneven distribution of Rs measurements limits our ability to improve the accuracy of estimation. Based on the global estimation of Rs flux, we found that Rs is highly correlated with GPP and NPP at the biome level, highlighting the role of Rs in global carbon budgets. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Updated Global Burden of Cholera in Endemic Countries

PubMed Central

Ali, Mohammad; Nelson, Allyson R.; Lopez, Anna Lena; Sack, David A.

2015-01-01

Background The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. PMID:26043000

Articular scaling and body mass estimation in platyrrhines and catarrhines: Modern variation and application to fossil anthropoids.

PubMed

Perry, Jonathan M G; Cooke, Siobhán B; Runestad Connour, Jacqueline A; Burgess, M Loring; Ruff, Christopher B

2018-02-01

Body mass is an important component of any paleobiological reconstruction. Reliable skeletal dimensions for making estimates are desirable but extant primate reference samples with known body masses are rare. We estimated body mass in a sample of extinct platyrrhines and Fayum anthropoids based on four measurements of the articular surfaces of the humerus and femur. Estimates were based on a large extant reference sample of wild-collected individuals with associated body masses, including previously published and new data from extant platyrrhines, cercopithecoids, and hominoids. In general, scaling of joint dimensions is positively allometric relative to expectations of geometric isometry, but negatively allometric relative to expectations of maintaining equivalent joint surface areas. Body mass prediction equations based on articular breadths are reasonably precise, with %SEEs of 17-25%. The breadth of the distal femoral articulation yields the most reliable estimates of body mass because it scales similarly in all major anthropoid taxa. Other joints scale differently in different taxa; therefore, locomotor style and phylogenetic affinity must be considered when calculating body mass estimates from the proximal femur, proximal humerus, and distal humerus. The body mass prediction equations were applied to 36 Old World and New World fossil anthropoid specimens representing 11 taxa, plus two Haitian specimens of uncertain taxonomic affinity. Among the extinct platyrrhines studied, only Cebupithecia is similar to large, extant platyrrhines in having large humeral (especially distal) joints. Our body mass estimates differ from each other and from published estimates based on teeth in ways that reflect known differences in relative sizes of the joints and teeth. We prefer body mass estimators that are biomechanically linked to weight-bearing, and especially those that are relatively insensitive to differences in locomotor style and phylogenetic history. Whenever possible, extant reference samples should be chosen to match target fossils in joint proportionality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

E-Cigarette Awareness, Use, and Harm Perception among Adults: A Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies.

PubMed

Xu, Ying; Guo, Yanfang; Liu, Kaiqian; Liu, Zheng; Wang, Xiaobo

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to systematically review the published literature on the awareness, previous and current use, and harm perceptions of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) among adults. A search of the most current literature using the PubMed and Scopus database to identify articles published since 2003 yielded a total of 28 relevant articles. The pooled prevalence of awareness, previous use, current use of e-cigarettes and perceived healthier of e-cigarettes than regular cigarettes (healthier perception) among adults were 61.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 51.5-70.8%), 16.8% (95% CI: 14.0-19.6%), 11.1% (95% CI: 9.2-13.1%), and 52.6% (95% CI: 42.5-62.6%), respectively, using a random effects model. The subgroup analysis showed that pooled estimates were highest in the group of current smokers of regular cigarettes, except that the highest pooled rate of current use was seen in the group of former smokers of regular cigarettes (the corresponding rates were 71.9% (95% CI: 57.5-86.3%), 27.2% (95% CI: 18.8-35.6%), 16.8% (95% CI: 7.2-26.3%), and 63.1% (95% CI: 52.1-74.1%)), and the lowest pooled rates were in the group of non-smokers, except for the rate of healthier perception in the users of e-cigarettes (and the corresponding rates were 46.8% (95% CI: 26.8-66.8%), 2.5% (95% CI: 1.1-5.6%), 1.2% (95% CI: 0.4-2.1%), and 37.9% (95% CI: -0.5-76.3%)). The cumulative meta-analysis found that awareness increased over time, while the prevalence of previous use, current use, and healthier perception first experienced an increase followed by a decrease and remained stable thereafter. E-cigarette awareness has been increasing, and e-cigarette use and perceived health risks are nearly invariable between 2009 and 2014. Given the substantial heterogeneity in the prevalence rate estimates, there is a need for more accurate and comparable prevalence estimates for e-cigarettes across the world.

Unifying error structures in commonly used biotracer mixing models.

PubMed

Stock, Brian C; Semmens, Brice X

2016-10-01

Mixing models are statistical tools that use biotracers to probabilistically estimate the contribution of multiple sources to a mixture. These biotracers may include contaminants, fatty acids, or stable isotopes, the latter of which are widely used in trophic ecology to estimate the mixed diet of consumers. Bayesian implementations of mixing models using stable isotopes (e.g., MixSIR, SIAR) are regularly used by ecologists for this purpose, but basic questions remain about when each is most appropriate. In this study, we describe the structural differences between common mixing model error formulations in terms of their assumptions about the predation process. We then introduce a new parameterization that unifies these mixing model error structures, as well as implicitly estimates the rate at which consumers sample from source populations (i.e., consumption rate). Using simulations and previously published mixing model datasets, we demonstrate that the new error parameterization outperforms existing models and provides an estimate of consumption. Our results suggest that the error structure introduced here will improve future mixing model estimates of animal diet. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Biorefinery Processes: A Comparative Study of Heuristic Techniques.

PubMed

Tsagkari, Mirela; Couturier, Jean-Luc; Kokossis, Antonis; Dubois, Jean-Luc

2016-09-08

Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil-based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital-intensive projects that involve state-of-the-art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid cost estimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous cost estimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well-documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early-stage capital cost estimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes. © 2015 The Authors. Published by Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA.

Update to the Ground-Water Withdrawals Database for the Death Valley Regional Ground-Water Flow System, Nevada and California, 1913-2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moreo, Michael T.; Justet, Leigh

2008-01-01

Ground-water withdrawal estimates from 1913 through 2003 for the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system are compiled in an electronic database to support a regional, three-dimensional, transient ground-water flow model. This database updates a previously published database that compiled estimates of ground-water withdrawals for 1913-1998. The same methodology is used to construct each database. Primary differences between the 2 databases are an additional 5 years of ground-water withdrawal data, well locations in the updated database are restricted to Death Valley regional ground-water flow system model boundary, and application rates are from 0 to 1.5 feet per year lower than original estimates. The lower application rates result from revised estimates of crop consumptive use, which are based on updated estimates of potential evapotranspiration. In 2003, about 55,700 acre-feet of ground water was pumped in the DVRFS, of which 69 percent was used for irrigation, 13 percent for domestic, and 18 percent for public supply, commercial, and mining activities.

Observational Constraints on the Water Vapor Feedback Using GPS Radio Occultations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergados, P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Ao, C. O.; Fetzer, E. J.

2016-12-01

The air refractive index at L-band frequencies depends on the air's density and water vapor content. Exploiting these relationships, we derive a theoretical model to infer the specific humidity response to surface temperature variations, dq/dTs, given knowledge of how the air refractive index and temperature vary with surface temperature. We validate this model using 1.2-1.6 GHz Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPS RO) observations from 2007 to 2010 at 250 hPa, where the water vapor feedback on surface warming is strongest. Current research indicates that GPS RO data sets can capture the amount of water vapor in very dry and very moist air more efficiently than other observing platforms, possibly suggesting larger water vapor feedback than previously known. Inter-comparing the dq/dTs among different data sets will provide us with additional constraints on the water vapor feedback. The dq/dTs estimation from GPS RO observations shows excellent agreement with previously published results and the responses estimated using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data sets. In particular, the GPS RO-derived dq/dTs is larger by 6% than that estimated using the AIRS data set. This agrees with past evidence that AIRS may be dry-biased in the upper troposphere. Compared to the MERRA estimations, the GPS RO-derived dq/dTs is 10% smaller, also agreeing with previous results that show that MERRA may have a wet bias in the upper troposphere. Because of their high sensitivity to fractional changes in water vapor, and their inherent long-term accuracy, current and future GPS RO observations show great promise in monitoring climate feedbacks and their trends.

Modelling multiple sources of dissemination bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bowden, Jack; Jackson, Dan; Thompson, Simon G

2010-03-30

Asymmetry in the funnel plot for a meta-analysis suggests the presence of dissemination bias. This may be caused by publication bias through the decisions of journal editors, by selective reporting of research results by authors or by a combination of both. Typically, study results that are statistically significant or have larger estimated effect sizes are more likely to appear in the published literature, hence giving a biased picture of the evidence-base. Previous statistical approaches for addressing dissemination bias have assumed only a single selection mechanism. Here we consider a more realistic scenario in which multiple dissemination processes, involving both the publishing authors and journals, are operating. In practical applications, the methods can be used to provide sensitivity analyses for the potential effects of multiple dissemination biases operating in meta-analysis.

Group B Streptococcal Disease Worldwide for Pregnant Women, Stillbirths, and Children: Why, What, and How to Undertake Estimates?

PubMed

Lawn, Joy E; Bianchi-Jassir, Fiorella; Russell, Neal J; Kohli-Lynch, Maya; Tann, Cally J; Hall, Jennifer; Madrid, Lola; Baker, Carol J; Bartlett, Linda; Cutland, Clare; Gravett, Michael G; Heath, Paul T; Ip, Margaret; Le Doare, Kirsty; Madhi, Shabir A; Rubens, Craig E; Saha, Samir K; Schrag, Stephanie; Sobanjo-Ter Meulen, Ajoke; Vekemans, Johan; Seale, Anna C

2017-11-06

Improving maternal, newborn, and child health is central to Sustainable Development Goal targets for 2030, requiring acceleration especially to prevent 5.6 million deaths around the time of birth. Infections contribute to this burden, but etiological data are limited. Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is an important perinatal pathogen, although previously focus has been primarily on liveborn children, especially early-onset disease. In this first of an 11-article supplement, we discuss the following: (1) Why estimate the worldwide burden of GBS disease? (2) What outcomes of GBS in pregnancy should be included? (3) What data and epidemiological parameters are required? (4) What methods and models can be used to transparently estimate this burden of GBS? (5) What are the challenges with available data? and (6) How can estimates address data gaps to better inform GBS interventions including maternal immunization? We review all available GBS data worldwide, including maternal GBS colonization, risk of neonatal disease (with/without intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis), maternal GBS disease, neonatal/infant GBS disease, and subsequent impairment, plus GBS-associated stillbirth, preterm birth, and neonatal encephalopathy. We summarize our methods for searches, meta-analyses, and modeling including a compartmental model. Our approach is consistent with the World Health Organization (WHO) Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER), published in The Lancet and the Public Library of Science (PLoS). We aim to address priority epidemiological gaps highlighted by WHO to inform potential maternal vaccination. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

The average cumulative risks of breast and ovarian cancer for carriers of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 attending genetic counseling units in Spain.

PubMed

Milne, Roger L; Osorio, Ana; Cajal, Teresa Ramón Y; Vega, Ana; Llort, Gemma; de la Hoya, Miguel; Díez, Orland; Alonso, M Carmen; Lazaro, Conxi; Blanco, Ignacio; Sánchez-de-Abajo, Ana; Caldés, Trinidad; Blanco, Ana; Graña, Begoña; Durán, Mercedes; Velasco, Eladio; Chirivella, Isabel; Cardeñosa, Eva Esteban; Tejada, María-Isabel; Beristain, Elena; Miramar, María-Dolores; Calvo, María-Teresa; Martínez, Eduardo; Guillén, Carmen; Salazar, Raquel; San Román, Carlos; Antoniou, Antonis C; Urioste, Miguel; Benítez, Javier

2008-05-01

It is not clear that the published estimates of the breast and ovarian cancer penetrances of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 can be used in genetic counseling in countries such as Spain, where the incidence of breast cancer in the general population is considerably lower, the prevalence of BRCA2 mutations seems to be higher, and a distinct spectrum of recurrent mutations exists for both genes. We aimed to estimate these penetrances for women attending genetic counseling units in Spain. We collected phenotype and genotype data on 155 BRCA1 and 164 BRCA2 mutation carrier families from 12 centers across the country. Average age-specific cumulative risks of breast cancer and ovarian cancer were estimated using a modified segregation analysis method. The estimated average cumulative risk of breast cancer to age 70 years was estimated to be 52% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 26-69%] for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 47% (95% CI, 29-60%) for BRCA2 mutation carriers. The corresponding estimates for ovarian cancer were 22% (95% CI, 0-40%) and 18% (95% CI, 0-35%), respectively. There was some evidence (two-sided P = 0.09) that 330A>G (R71G) in BRCA1 may have lower breast cancer penetrance. These results are consistent with those from a recent meta-analysis of practically all previous penetrance studies, suggesting that women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations attending genetic counseling services in Spain have similar risks of breast and ovarian cancer to those published for other Caucasian populations. Carriers should be fully informed of their mutation- and age-specific risks to make appropriate decisions regarding prophylactic interventions such as oophorectomy.

The ACCE method: an approach for obtaining quantitative or qualitative estimates of residual confounding that includes unmeasured confounding

PubMed Central

Smith, Eric G.

2015-01-01

Background:  Nonrandomized studies typically cannot account for confounding from unmeasured factors.  Method:  A method is presented that exploits the recently-identified phenomenon of  “confounding amplification” to produce, in principle, a quantitative estimate of total residual confounding resulting from both measured and unmeasured factors.  Two nested propensity score models are constructed that differ only in the deliberate introduction of an additional variable(s) that substantially predicts treatment exposure.  Residual confounding is then estimated by dividing the change in treatment effect estimate between models by the degree of confounding amplification estimated to occur, adjusting for any association between the additional variable(s) and outcome. Results:  Several hypothetical examples are provided to illustrate how the method produces a quantitative estimate of residual confounding if the method’s requirements and assumptions are met.  Previously published data is used to illustrate that, whether or not the method routinely provides precise quantitative estimates of residual confounding, the method appears to produce a valuable qualitative estimate of the likely direction and general size of residual confounding. Limitations:  Uncertainties exist, including identifying the best approaches for: 1) predicting the amount of confounding amplification, 2) minimizing changes between the nested models unrelated to confounding amplification, 3) adjusting for the association of the introduced variable(s) with outcome, and 4) deriving confidence intervals for the method’s estimates (although bootstrapping is one plausible approach). Conclusions:  To this author’s knowledge, it has not been previously suggested that the phenomenon of confounding amplification, if such amplification is as predictable as suggested by a recent simulation, provides a logical basis for estimating total residual confounding. The method's basic approach is straightforward.  The method's routine usefulness, however, has not yet been established, nor has the method been fully validated. Rapid further investigation of this novel method is clearly indicated, given the potential value of its quantitative or qualitative output. PMID:25580226

Occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir, Kansas, 2001-16

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy M.; Williams, Thomas J.; Kramer, Ariele R.; Harris, Theodore D.

2017-03-31

Cheney Reservoir, located in south-central Kansas, is one of the primary drinking-water supplies for the city of Wichita and an important recreational resource. Since 1990, cyanobacterial blooms have been present occasionally in Cheney Reservoir, resulting in increased treatment costs and decreased recreational use. Cyanobacteria, the cyanotoxin microcystin, and the taste-and-odor compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol have been measured in Cheney Reservoir by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the city of Wichita, for about 16 years. The purpose of this report is to describe the occurrence of cyanobacteria, microcystin, and taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016 and to update previously published logistic regression models that used continuous water-quality data to estimate the probability of microcystin and geosmin occurrence above relevant thresholds.Cyanobacteria, microcystin, and geosmin were detected in about 84, 52, and 31 percent of samples collected in Cheney Reservoir during May 2001 through June 2016, respectively. 2-methylisoborneol was less common, detected in only 3 percent of samples. Microcystin and geosmin concentrations exceeded advisory values of concern more frequently than cyanobacterial abundance; therefore, cyanobacteria are not a good indicator of the presence of these taste-and-odor compounds in Cheney Reservoir. Broad seasonal patterns in cyanobacteria and microcystin were evident, though abundance and concentration varied by orders of magnitude across years. Cyanobacterial abundances generally peaked in late summer or early fall (August through October), and smaller peaks were observed in winter (January through February). In a typical year, microcystin was first detected in June or July, increased to its seasonal maxima in the summer (July through September), and then decreased. Seasonal patterns in geosmin were less consistent than cyanobacteria and microcystin, but geosmin typically had a small peak during winter (January through March) during most years and a large peak during summer (July through September) during some years. Though the relation between cyanobacterial abundance and microcystin and geosmin concentrations was positive, overall correlations were weak, likely because production is strain-specific and cyanobacterial strain composition may vary substantially over time. Microcystin often was present without taste-and-odor compounds. By comparison, where taste-and-odor compounds were present, microcystin frequently was detected. Taste-and-odor compounds, therefore, may be used as indicators that microcystin may be present; however, microcystin was present without taste-and-odor compounds, so taste or odor alone does not provide sufficient warning to ensure human-health protection.Logistic regression models that estimate the probability of microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter and geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter were developed. Models were developed using the complete dataset (January 2003 through June 2016 for microcystin [14-year dataset]; May 2001 through June 2016 for geosmin [16-year dataset]) and an abbreviated 4-year dataset (January 2013 through June 2016 for microcystin and geosmin). Performance of the newly developed models was compared with previously published models that were developed using data collected during May 2001 through December 2009. A seasonal component and chlorophyll fluorescence (a surrogate for algal biomass) were the explanatory variables for microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in all models. All models were relatively robust, though the previously published and 14-year models performed better over time; however, as a tool to estimate microcystin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 0.1 micrograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam, the 4-year model is most representative of recent (2013 through 2016) conditions. All models for geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter had different explanatory variables and model forms. The previously published and 16-year models were not robust over time, likely because of changing environmental conditions and seasonal patterns in geosmin occurrence. By comparison, the abbreviated 4-year model may be a useful tool to estimate geosmin occurrence at concentrations greater than or equal to 5 nanograms per liter in a real-time notification system near the Cheney Dam. The better performance of the abbreviated 4-year geosmin model during 2013 through 2016 relative to the previously published and 16-year models demonstrates the need for continuous reevaluation of models estimating the probability of occurrence.

Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study.

PubMed

Shi, Ting; McAllister, David A; O'Brien, Katherine L; Simoes, Eric A F; Madhi, Shabir A; Gessner, Bradford D; Polack, Fernando P; Balsells, Evelyn; Acacio, Sozinho; Aguayo, Claudia; Alassani, Issifou; Ali, Asad; Antonio, Martin; Awasthi, Shally; Awori, Juliet O; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Baggett, Henry C; Baillie, Vicky L; Balmaseda, Angel; Barahona, Alfredo; Basnet, Sudha; Bassat, Quique; Basualdo, Wilma; Bigogo, Godfrey; Bont, Louis; Breiman, Robert F; Brooks, W Abdullah; Broor, Shobha; Bruce, Nigel; Bruden, Dana; Buchy, Philippe; Campbell, Stuart; Carosone-Link, Phyllis; Chadha, Mandeep; Chipeta, James; Chou, Monidarin; Clara, Wilfrido; Cohen, Cheryl; de Cuellar, Elizabeth; Dang, Duc-Anh; Dash-Yandag, Budragchaagiin; Deloria-Knoll, Maria; Dherani, Mukesh; Eap, Tekchheng; Ebruke, Bernard E; Echavarria, Marcela; de Freitas Lázaro Emediato, Carla Cecília; Fasce, Rodrigo A; Feikin, Daniel R; Feng, Luzhao; Gentile, Angela; Gordon, Aubree; Goswami, Doli; Goyet, Sophie; Groome, Michelle; Halasa, Natasha; Hirve, Siddhivinayak; Homaira, Nusrat; Howie, Stephen R C; Jara, Jorge; Jroundi, Imane; Kartasasmita, Cissy B; Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Kotloff, Karen L; Krishnan, Anand; Libster, Romina; Lopez, Olga; Lucero, Marilla G; Lucion, Florencia; Lupisan, Socorro P; Marcone, Debora N; McCracken, John P; Mejia, Mario; Moisi, Jennifer C; Montgomery, Joel M; Moore, David P; Moraleda, Cinta; Moyes, Jocelyn; Munywoki, Patrick; Mutyara, Kuswandewi; Nicol, Mark P; Nokes, D James; Nymadawa, Pagbajabyn; da Costa Oliveira, Maria Tereza; Oshitani, Histoshi; Pandey, Nitin; Paranhos-Baccalà, Gláucia; Phillips, Lia N; Picot, Valentina Sanchez; Rahman, Mustafizur; Rakoto-Andrianarivelo, Mala; Rasmussen, Zeba A; Rath, Barbara A; Robinson, Annick; Romero, Candice; Russomando, Graciela; Salimi, Vahid; Sawatwong, Pongpun; Scheltema, Nienke; Schweiger, Brunhilde; Scott, J Anthony G; Seidenberg, Phil; Shen, Kunling; Singleton, Rosalyn; Sotomayor, Viviana; Strand, Tor A; Sutanto, Agustinus; Sylla, Mariam; Tapia, Milagritos D; Thamthitiwat, Somsak; Thomas, Elizabeth D; Tokarz, Rafal; Turner, Claudia; Venter, Marietjie; Waicharoen, Sunthareeya; Wang, Jianwei; Watthanaworawit, Wanitda; Yoshida, Lay-Myint; Yu, Hongjie; Zar, Heather J; Campbell, Harry; Nair, Harish

2017-09-02

We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015. We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity. We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population. Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group. The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Pleomorphic dermal sarcoma: a more aggressive neoplasm than previously estimated.

PubMed

Tardío, Juan C; Pinedo, Fernando; Aramburu, José A; Suárez-Massa, Dolores; Pampín, Ana; Requena, Luis; Santonja, Carlos

2016-02-01

Pleomorphic dermal sarcoma (PDS) is a rare neoplasm sharing pathological features with atypical fibroxanthoma, but adding tumor necrosis, invasion beyond superficial subcutis or vascular or perineural infiltration. Although its metastatic risk has been estimated to be less than 5%, its real outcome is presently uncertain because of its rarity and to the lack of homogeneous criteria used in reported cases. Retrospective clinicopathological study of 18 cases of PDS. The lesions presented as tumors or plaques (size: 7-70 mm) on the head of elderly patients (median: 81 years), without a gender predominance. Histopathologically, they consisted of spindle cells arranged in a fascicular pattern, containing pleomorphic epithelioid and giant multinucleated cells in varying proportions, and usually exhibiting numerous mitotic figures and infiltrative tumor margins. No immunoexpression for cytokeratins, S100 protein, desmin or CD34 was observed. Necrosis and venous invasion were found in three tumors each (17%). Follow-up was available in 15 cases (median: 33 months). Three patients (20%) had local recurrences, all with incomplete primary surgical resections. Three patients (20%) developed distant metastases in the skin, regional lymph nodes and/or lungs and died from the disease. Our data suggest that PDS may be a more aggressive neoplasm than previously estimated. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian population analysis of a washin-washout physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for acetone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moerk, Anna-Karin, E-mail: anna-karin.mork@ki.s; Jonsson, Fredrik; Pharsight, a Certara company, St. Louis, MO

2009-11-01

The aim of this study was to derive improved estimates of population variability and uncertainty of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model parameters, especially of those related to the washin-washout behavior of polar volatile substances. This was done by optimizing a previously published washin-washout PBPK model for acetone in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivity of the model parameters was investigated by creating four different prior sets, where the uncertainty surrounding the population variability of the physiological model parameters was given values corresponding to coefficients of variation of 1%, 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. The PBPKmore » model was calibrated to toxicokinetic data from 2 previous studies where 18 volunteers were exposed to 250-550 ppm of acetone at various levels of workload. The updated PBPK model provided a good description of the concentrations in arterial, venous, and exhaled air. The precision of most of the model parameter estimates was improved. New information was particularly gained on the population distribution of the parameters governing the washin-washout effect. The results presented herein provide a good starting point to estimate the target dose of acetone in the working and general populations for risk assessment purposes.« less

Implications of lower risk thresholds for statin treatment in primary prevention: analysis of CPRD and simulation modelling of annual cholesterol monitoring.

PubMed

McFadden, Emily; Stevens, Richard; Glasziou, Paul; Perera, Rafael

2015-01-01

To estimate numbers affected by a recent change in UK guidelines for statin use in primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We modelled cholesterol ratio over time using a sample of 45,151 men (≥40years) and 36,168 women (≥55years) in 2006, without statin treatment or previous cardiovascular disease, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Using simulation methods, we estimated numbers indicated for new statin treatment, if cholesterol was measured annually and used in the QRISK2 CVD risk calculator, using the previous 20% and newly recommended 10% thresholds. We estimate that 58% of men and 55% of women would be indicated for treatment by five years and 71% of men and 73% of women by ten years using the 20% threshold. Using the proposed threshold of 10%, 84% of men and 90% of women would be indicated for treatment by 5years and 92% of men and 98% of women by ten years. The proposed change of risk threshold from 20% to 10% would result in the substantial majority of those recommended for cholesterol testing being indicated for statin treatment. Implications depend on the value of statins in those at low to medium risk, and whether there are harms. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Interrelationships of Placental Mammals and the Limits of Phylogenetic Inference.

PubMed

Tarver, James E; Dos Reis, Mario; Mirarab, Siavash; Moran, Raymond J; Parker, Sean; O'Reilly, Joseph E; King, Benjamin L; O'Connell, Mary J; Asher, Robert J; Warnow, Tandy; Peterson, Kevin J; Donoghue, Philip C J; Pisani, Davide

2016-01-05

Placental mammals comprise three principal clades: Afrotheria (e.g., elephants and tenrecs), Xenarthra (e.g., armadillos and sloths), and Boreoeutheria (all other placental mammals), the relationships among which are the subject of controversy and a touchstone for debate on the limits of phylogenetic inference. Previous analyses have found support for all three hypotheses, leading some to conclude that this phylogenetic problem might be impossible to resolve due to the compounded effects of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and a rapid radiation. Here we show, using a genome scale nucleotide data set, microRNAs, and the reanalysis of the three largest previously published amino acid data sets, that the root of Placentalia lies between Atlantogenata and Boreoeutheria. Although we found evidence for ILS in early placental evolution, we are able to reject previous conclusions that the placental root is a hard polytomy that cannot be resolved. Reanalyses of previous data sets recover Atlantogenata + Boreoeutheria and show that contradictory results are a consequence of poorly fitting evolutionary models; instead, when the evolutionary process is better-modeled, all data sets converge on Atlantogenata. Our Bayesian molecular clock analysis estimates that marsupials diverged from placentals 157-170 Ma, crown Placentalia diverged 86-100 Ma, and crown Atlantogenata diverged 84-97 Ma. Our results are compatible with placental diversification being driven by dispersal rather than vicariance mechanisms, postdating early phases in the protracted opening of the Atlantic Ocean. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Computational correction of copy number effect improves specificity of CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens in cancer cells.

PubMed

Meyers, Robin M; Bryan, Jordan G; McFarland, James M; Weir, Barbara A; Sizemore, Ann E; Xu, Han; Dharia, Neekesh V; Montgomery, Phillip G; Cowley, Glenn S; Pantel, Sasha; Goodale, Amy; Lee, Yenarae; Ali, Levi D; Jiang, Guozhi; Lubonja, Rakela; Harrington, William F; Strickland, Matthew; Wu, Ting; Hawes, Derek C; Zhivich, Victor A; Wyatt, Meghan R; Kalani, Zohra; Chang, Jaime J; Okamoto, Michael; Stegmaier, Kimberly; Golub, Todd R; Boehm, Jesse S; Vazquez, Francisca; Root, David E; Hahn, William C; Tsherniak, Aviad

2017-12-01

The CRISPR-Cas9 system has revolutionized gene editing both at single genes and in multiplexed loss-of-function screens, thus enabling precise genome-scale identification of genes essential for proliferation and survival of cancer cells. However, previous studies have reported that a gene-independent antiproliferative effect of Cas9-mediated DNA cleavage confounds such measurement of genetic dependency, thereby leading to false-positive results in copy number-amplified regions. We developed CERES, a computational method to estimate gene-dependency levels from CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens while accounting for the copy number-specific effect. In our efforts to define a cancer dependency map, we performed genome-scale CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens across 342 cancer cell lines and applied CERES to this data set. We found that CERES decreased false-positive results and estimated sgRNA activity for both this data set and previously published screens performed with different sgRNA libraries. We further demonstrate the utility of this collection of screens, after CERES correction, for identifying cancer-type-specific vulnerabilities.

Computational correction of copy-number effect improves specificity of CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens in cancer cells

PubMed Central

Meyers, Robin M.; Bryan, Jordan G.; McFarland, James M.; Weir, Barbara A.; Sizemore, Ann E.; Xu, Han; Dharia, Neekesh V.; Montgomery, Phillip G.; Cowley, Glenn S.; Pantel, Sasha; Goodale, Amy; Lee, Yenarae; Ali, Levi D.; Jiang, Guozhi; Lubonja, Rakela; Harrington, William F.; Strickland, Matthew; Wu, Ting; Hawes, Derek C.; Zhivich, Victor A.; Wyatt, Meghan R.; Kalani, Zohra; Chang, Jaime J.; Okamoto, Michael; Stegmaier, Kimberly; Golub, Todd R.; Boehm, Jesse S.; Vazquez, Francisca; Root, David E.; Hahn, William C.; Tsherniak, Aviad

2017-01-01

The CRISPR-Cas9 system has revolutionized gene editing both on single genes and in multiplexed loss-of-function screens, enabling precise genome-scale identification of genes essential to proliferation and survival of cancer cells1,2. However, previous studies reported that a gene-independent anti-proliferative effect of Cas9-mediated DNA cleavage confounds such measurement of genetic dependency, leading to false positive results in copy number amplified regions3,4. We developed CERES, a computational method to estimate gene dependency levels from CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens while accounting for the copy-number-specific effect. As part of our efforts to define a cancer dependency map, we performed genome-scale CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens across 342 cancer cell lines and applied CERES to this dataset. We found that CERES reduced false positive results and estimated sgRNA activity for both this dataset and previously published screens performed with different sgRNA libraries. Here, we demonstrate the utility of this collection of screens, upon CERES correction, in revealing cancer-type-specific vulnerabilities. PMID:29083409

GRACE time-variable gravity field recovery using an improved energy balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Kun; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.; Dai, Chunli; Luo, Jia

2015-12-01

A new approach based on energy conservation principle for satellite gravimetry mission has been developed and yields more accurate estimation of in situ geopotential difference observables using K-band ranging (KBR) measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. This new approach preserves more gravity information sensed by KBR range-rate measurements and reduces orbit error as compared to previous energy balance methods. Results from analysis of 11 yr of GRACE data indicated that the resulting geopotential difference estimates agree well with predicted values from official Level 2 solutions: with much higher correlation at 0.9, as compared to 0.5-0.8 reported by previous published energy balance studies. We demonstrate that our approach produced a comparable time-variable gravity solution with the Level 2 solutions. The regional GRACE temporal gravity solutions over Greenland reveals that a substantially higher temporal resolution is achievable at 10-d sampling as compared to the official monthly solutions, but without the compromise of spatial resolution, nor the need to use regularization or post-processing.

Aerosol Direct Radiative Effects and Heating in the New Era of Active Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matus, Alexander V.

Atmospheric aerosols impact the global energy budget by scattering and absorbing solar radiation. Despite their impacts, aerosols remain a significant source of uncertainty in our ability to predict future climate. Multi-sensor observations from the A-Train satellite constellation provide valuable observational constraints necessary to reduce uncertainties in model simulations of aerosol direct effects. This study will discuss recent efforts to quantify aerosol direct effects globally and regionally using CloudSat's radiative fluxes and heating rates product. Improving upon previous techniques, this approach leverages the capability of CloudSat and CALIPSO to retrieve vertically resolved estimates of cloud and aerosol properties critical for accurately evaluating the radiative impacts of aerosols. We estimate the global annual mean aerosol direct effect to be -1.9 +/- 0.6 W/m2, which is in better agreement with previously published estimates from global models than previous satellite-based estimates. Detailed comparisons against a fully coupled simulation of the Community Earth System Model, however, reveal that this agreement on the global annual mean masks large regional discrepancies between modeled and observed estimates of aerosol direct effects related to model biases in cloud cover. A low bias in stratocumulus cloud cover over the southeastern Pacific Ocean, for example, leads to an overestimate of the radiative effects of marine aerosols. Stratocumulus clouds over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean can enhance aerosol absorption by 50% allowing aerosol layers to remain self-lofted in an area of subsidence. Aerosol heating is found to peak at 0.6 +/- 0.3 K/day an altitude of 4 km in September when biomass burning reaches a maximum. Finally, the contributions of observed aerosols components are evaluated to estimate the direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. Aerosol forcing is computed using satellite-based radiative kernels that describe the sensitivity of shortwave fluxes in response to aerosol optical depth. The direct radiative forcing is estimated to be -0.21 W/m2 with the largest contributions from pollution that is partially offset by a positive forcing from smoke aerosols. The results from these analyses provide new benchmarks on the global radiative effects of aerosols and offer new insights for improving future assessments.

Comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) for food additives.

PubMed

Tennant, David R

2016-05-01

European methods for assessing dietary exposures to nutrients, additives and other substances in food are limited by the availability of detailed food consumption data for all member states. A proposed comprehensive European dietary exposure model (CEDEM) applies summary data published by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) in a deterministic model based on an algorithm from the EFSA intake method for food additives. The proposed approach can predict estimates of food additive exposure provided in previous EFSA scientific opinions that were based on the full European food consumption database.

Asthma and lung cancer, after accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases and allergic conditions: a systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Denholm, Rachel; Crellin, Elizabeth; Arvind, Ashwini; Quint, Jennifer

2017-01-16

Asthma is one of the most frequently diagnosed respiratory diseases in the UK, and commonly co-occurs with other respiratory and allergic diseases, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and atopic dermatitis. Previous studies have shown an increased risk of lung cancer related to asthma, but the evidence is mixed when accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases and allergic conditions. A systematic review of published data that investigate the relationship between asthma and lung cancer, accounting for co-occurring respiratory and allergic diseases, will be conducted to investigate the independent association of asthma with lung cancer. A systematic review will be conducted, and include original reports of cohort, cross-sectional and case-control studies of the association of asthma with lung cancer after accounting for co-occurring respiratory diseases. Articles published up to June 2016 will be included, and their selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A standardised data extraction form will be developed and pretested, and descriptive analyses will be used to summarise the available literature. If appropriate, pooled effect estimates of the association between asthma and lung cancer, given adjustment for a specific co-occurring condition will be estimated using random effects models. Potential sources of heterogeneity and between study heterogeneity will also be investigated. The study will be a review of published data and does not require ethical approval. Results will be disseminated through a peer-reviewed publication. International Prospective Register for Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) number CRD42016043341. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

The accuracy of less: Natural bounds explain why quantity decreases are estimated more accurately than quantity increases.

PubMed

Chandon, Pierre; Ordabayeva, Nailya

2017-02-01

Five studies show that people, including experts such as professional chefs, estimate quantity decreases more accurately than quantity increases. We argue that this asymmetry occurs because physical quantities cannot be negative. Consequently, there is a natural lower bound (zero) when estimating decreasing quantities but no upper bound when estimating increasing quantities, which can theoretically grow to infinity. As a result, the "accuracy of less" disappears (a) when a numerical or a natural upper bound is present when estimating quantity increases, or (b) when people are asked to estimate the (unbounded) ratio of change from 1 size to another for both increasing and decreasing quantities. Ruling out explanations related to loss aversion, symbolic number mapping, and the visual arrangement of the stimuli, we show that the "accuracy of less" influences choice and demonstrate its robustness in a meta-analysis that includes previously published results. Finally, we discuss how the "accuracy of less" may explain asymmetric reactions to the supersizing and downsizing of food portions, some instances of the endowment effect, and asymmetries in the perception of increases and decreases in physical and psychological distance. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimation of Vegetation Aerodynamic Roughness of Natural Regions Using Frontal Area Density Determined from Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jasinski, Michael F.; Crago, Richard

1994-01-01

Parameterizations of the frontal area index and canopy area index of natural or randomly distributed plants are developed, and applied to the estimation of local aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery. The formulas are expressed in terms of the subpixel fractional vegetation cover and one non-dimensional geometric parameter that characterizes the plant's shape. Geometrically similar plants and Poisson distributed plant centers are assumed. An appropriate averaging technique to extend satellite pixel-scale estimates to larger scales is provided. ne parameterization is applied to the estimation of aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery for a 2.3 sq km coniferous portion of the Landes Forest near Lubbon, France, during the 1986 HAPEX-Mobilhy Experiment. The canopy area index is estimated first for each pixel in the scene based on previous estimates of fractional cover obtained using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Next, the results are incorporated into Raupach's (1992, 1994) analytical formulas for momentum roughness and zero-plane displacement height. The estimates compare reasonably well to reference values determined from measurements taken during the experiment and to published literature values. The approach offers the potential for estimating regionally variable, vegetation aerodynamic roughness lengths over natural regions using satellite imagery when there exists only limited knowledge of the vegetated surface.

Reconstructing the hidden states in time course data of stochastic models.

PubMed

Zimmer, Christoph

2015-11-01

Parameter estimation is central for analyzing models in Systems Biology. The relevance of stochastic modeling in the field is increasing. Therefore, the need for tailored parameter estimation techniques is increasing as well. Challenges for parameter estimation are partial observability, measurement noise, and the computational complexity arising from the dimension of the parameter space. This article extends the multiple shooting for stochastic systems' method, developed for inference in intrinsic stochastic systems. The treatment of extrinsic noise and the estimation of the unobserved states is improved, by taking into account the correlation between unobserved and observed species. This article demonstrates the power of the method on different scenarios of a Lotka-Volterra model, including cases in which the prey population dies out or explodes, and a Calcium oscillation system. Besides showing how the new extension improves the accuracy of the parameter estimates, this article analyzes the accuracy of the state estimates. In contrast to previous approaches, the new approach is well able to estimate states and parameters for all the scenarios. As it does not need stochastic simulations, it is of the same order of speed as conventional least squares parameter estimation methods with respect to computational time. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using exposure prediction tools to link exposure and dosimetry for risk-based decisions: A case study with phthalates.

PubMed

Moreau, Marjory; Leonard, Jeremy; Phillips, Katherine A; Campbell, Jerry; Pendse, Salil N; Nicolas, Chantel; Phillips, Martin; Yoon, Miyoung; Tan, Yu-Mei; Smith, Sherrie; Pudukodu, Harish; Isaacs, Kristin; Clewell, Harvey

2017-10-01

A few different exposure prediction tools were evaluated for use in the new in vitro-based safety assessment paradigm using di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) and dibutyl phthalate (DnBP) as case compounds. Daily intake of each phthalate was estimated using both high-throughput (HT) prediction models such as the HT Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation model (SHEDS-HT) and the ExpoCast heuristic model and non-HT approaches based on chemical specific exposure estimations in the environment in conjunction with human exposure factors. Reverse dosimetry was performed using a published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for phthalates and their metabolites to provide a comparison point. Daily intakes of DEHP and DnBP were estimated based on the urinary concentrations of their respective monoesters, mono-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (MEHP) and monobutyl phthalate (MnBP), reported in NHANES (2011-2012). The PBPK-reverse dosimetry estimated daily intakes at the 50th and 95th percentiles were 0.68 and 9.58 μg/kg/d and 0.089 and 0.68 μg/kg/d for DEHP and DnBP, respectively. For DEHP, the estimated median from PBPK-reverse dosimetry was about 3.6-fold higher than the ExpoCast estimate (0.68 and 0.18 μg/kg/d, respectively). For DnBP, the estimated median was similar to that predicted by ExpoCast (0.089 and 0.094 μg/kg/d, respectively). The SHEDS-HT prediction of DnBP intake from consumer product pathways alone was higher at 0.67 μg/kg/d. The PBPK-reverse dosimetry-estimated median intake of DEHP and DnBP was comparable to values previously reported for US populations. These comparisons provide insights into establishing criteria for selecting appropriate exposure prediction tools for use in an integrated modeling platform to link exposure to health effects. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden

PubMed Central

Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul

2014-01-01

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42–7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called ‘Carter effect’ could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36–0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00–0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an inherited trait, the familial relative risks may be lower than usually reported. PMID:24441172

An Empirical Comparison of Discrete Choice Experiment and Best-Worst Scaling to Estimate Stakeholders' Risk Tolerance for Hip Replacement Surgery.

PubMed

van Dijk, Joris D; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; Marshall, Deborah A; IJzerman, Maarten J

2016-06-01

Previous studies have been inconclusive regarding the validity and reliability of preference elicitation methods. The aim of this study was to compare the metrics obtained from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) and profile-case best-worst scaling (BWS) with respect to hip replacement. We surveyed the general US population of men aged 45 to 65 years, and potentially eligible for hip replacement surgery. The survey included sociodemographic questions, eight DCE questions, and twelve BWS questions. Attributes were the probability of a first and second revision, pain relief, ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities, and length of hospital stay. Conditional logit analysis was used to estimate attribute weights, level preferences, and the maximum acceptable risk (MAR) for undergoing revision surgery in six hypothetical treatment scenarios with different attribute levels. A total of 429 (96%) respondents were included. Comparable attribute weights and level preferences were found for both BWS and DCE. Preferences were greatest for hip replacement surgery with high pain relief and the ability to participate in sports and perform daily activities. Although the estimated MARs for revision surgery followed the same trend, the MARs were systematically higher in five of the six scenarios using DCE. This study confirms previous findings that BWS or DCEs are comparable in estimating attribute weights and level preferences. However, the risk tolerance threshold based on the estimation of MAR differs between these methods, possibly leading to inconsistency in comparing treatment scenarios. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PockDrug-Server: a new web server for predicting pocket druggability on holo and apo proteins.

PubMed

Hussein, Hiba Abi; Borrel, Alexandre; Geneix, Colette; Petitjean, Michel; Regad, Leslie; Camproux, Anne-Claude

2015-07-01

Predicting protein pocket's ability to bind drug-like molecules with high affinity, i.e. druggability, is of major interest in the target identification phase of drug discovery. Therefore, pocket druggability investigations represent a key step of compound clinical progression projects. Currently computational druggability prediction models are attached to one unique pocket estimation method despite pocket estimation uncertainties. In this paper, we propose 'PockDrug-Server' to predict pocket druggability, efficient on both (i) estimated pockets guided by the ligand proximity (extracted by proximity to a ligand from a holo protein structure) and (ii) estimated pockets based solely on protein structure information (based on amino atoms that form the surface of potential binding cavities). PockDrug-Server provides consistent druggability results using different pocket estimation methods. It is robust with respect to pocket boundary and estimation uncertainties, thus efficient using apo pockets that are challenging to estimate. It clearly distinguishes druggable from less druggable pockets using different estimation methods and outperformed recent druggability models for apo pockets. It can be carried out from one or a set of apo/holo proteins using different pocket estimation methods proposed by our web server or from any pocket previously estimated by the user. PockDrug-Server is publicly available at: http://pockdrug.rpbs.univ-paris-diderot.fr. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

A reexamination of age-related variation in body weight and morphometry of Maryland nutria

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherfy, M.H.; Mollett, T.A.; McGowan, K.R.; Daugherty, S.L.

2006-01-01

Age-related variation in morphometry has been documented for many species. Knowledge of growth patterns can be useful for modeling energetics, detecting physiological influences on populations, and predicting age. These benefits have shown value in understanding population dynamics of invasive species, particularly in developing efficient control and eradication programs. However, development and evaluation of descriptive and predictive models is a critical initial step in this process. Accordingly, we used data from necropsies of 1,544 nutria (Myocastor coypus) collected in Maryland, USA, to evaluate the accuracy of previously published models for prediction of nutria age from body weight. Published models underestimated body weights of our animals, especially for ages <3. We used cross-validation procedures to develop and evaluate models for describing nutria growth patterns and for predicting nutria age. We derived models from a randomly selected model-building data set (n = 192-193 M, 217-222 F) and evaluated them with the remaining animals (n = 487-488 M, 642-647 F). We used nonlinear regression to develop Gompertz growth-curve models relating morphometric variables to age. Predicted values of morphometric variables fell within the 95% confidence limits of their true values for most age classes. We also developed predictive models for estimating nutria age from morphometry, using linear regression of log-transformed age on morphometric variables. The evaluation data set corresponded with 95% prediction intervals from the new models. Predictive models for body weight and length provided greater accuracy and less bias than models for foot length and axillary girth. Our growth models accurately described age-related variation in nutria morphometry, and our predictive models provided accurate estimates of ages from morphometry that will be useful for live-captured individuals. Our models offer better accuracy and precision than previously published models, providing a capacity for modeling energetics and growth patterns of Maryland nutria as well as an empirical basis for determining population age structure from live-captured animals.

A Study on New Pochonka Published in A.D. 1792

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Sang-Hyeon

2009-12-01

New Pochonka published in the eighteenth century of the Choson dynasty was composed of star-charts based on the new observations made by Jesuits in China and songs corrected a little bit from previous version of Pochonka. The asterisms in the previous Pochonka are listed in the same order to that in the Song dynasty's literature; while the asterisms in the new Pochonka are listed in accordance with Pu-tien-ko published in China after the Ming dynasty. The Chinese-style twelve-equatorial-section system is adopted in the new Pochonka, while in its song is adopted the zodiac system, which can be seen in the star-charts of previous version of Pochonka. The asterisms belonging to three or four neighboring lunar-mansions are drawn in one chart. Each chart covers asterisms not belonging to a certain range of right ascension, but to a certain lunar mansion. We estimate the forming era of the new Pochonka from the following facts; that the Ling-Tai-I-Hsiang-Chih was used to make charts and footnotes whose archetype can be found in the Chinese literature around A.D. 1700, that these Chinese books were imported into Choson in A.D. 1709, that the naming taboo to the emperor Khang-Hsi was used, that the order of Shen-Hsiu (參宿) was transposed with Tshui-Hsiu (자宿), and that the new Pochonka was substituted for the old version when the rules of Royal Astronomical Bureau was reformed in A.D. 1791. In conclusion, the parent sources of the charts and footnotes of the new Pochonka might be imported from the Ching dynasty around 1709 A.D. to form the new Pochonka between A.D. 1709 and A.D. 1791, and finally to be published in A.D. 1792. We discuss the possible future works to make a firm conclusion.

Assessment of published models and prognostic variables in epithelial ovarian cancer at Mayo Clinic

PubMed Central

Hendrickson, Andrea Wahner; Hawthorne, Kieran M.; Goode, Ellen L.; Kalli, Kimberly R.; Goergen, Krista M.; Bakkum-Gamez, Jamie N.; Cliby, William A.; Keeney, Gary L.; Visscher, Dan W.; Tarabishy, Yaman; Oberg, Ann L.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Maurer, Matthew J.

2015-01-01

Objectives Epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) is an aggressive disease in which first line therapy consists of a surgical staging/debulking procedure and platinum based chemotherapy. There is significant interest in clinically applicable, easy to use prognostic tools to estimate risk of recurrence and overall survival. In this study we used a large prospectively collected cohort of women with EOC to validate currently published models and assess prognostic variables. Methods Women with invasive ovarian, peritoneal, or fallopian tube cancer diagnosed between 2000-2011 and prospectively enrolled into the Mayo Clinic Ovarian Cancer registry were identified. Demographics and known prognostic markers as well as epidemiologic exposure variables were abstracted from the medical record and collected via questionnaire. Six previously published models of overall and recurrence-free survival were assessed for external validity. In addition, predictors of outcome were assessed in our dataset. Results Previously published models validated with a range of c-statistics (0.587-0.827), though application of models containing variables not part of routine practice were somewhat limited by missing data; utilization of all applicable models and comparison of results is suggested. Examination of prognostic variables identified only the presence of ascites and ASA score to be independent predictors of prognosis in our dataset, albeit with marginal gain in prognostic information, after accounting for stage and debulking. Conclusions Existing prognostic models for newly diagnosed EOC showed acceptable calibration in our cohort for clinical application. However, modeling of prospective variables in our dataset reiterates that stage and debulking remain the most important predictors of prognosis in this setting. PMID:25620544

Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and Earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

1993-01-01

We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories, these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the VLBI observations.

Species longevity in North American fossil mammals.

PubMed

Prothero, Donald R

2014-08-01

Species longevity in the fossil record is related to many paleoecological variables and is important to macroevolutionary studies, yet there are very few reliable data on average species durations in Cenozoic fossil mammals. Many of the online databases (such as the Paleobiology Database) use only genera of North American Cenozoic mammals and there are severe problems because key groups (e.g. camels, oreodonts, pronghorns and proboscideans) have no reliable updated taxonomy, with many invalid genera and species and/or many undescribed genera and species. Most of the published datasets yield species duration estimates of approximately 2.3-4.3 Myr for larger mammals, with small mammals tending to have shorter species durations. My own compilation of all the valid species durations in families with updated taxonomy (39 families, containing 431 genera and 998 species, averaging 2.3 species per genus) yields a mean duration of 3.21 Myr for larger mammals. This breaks down to 4.10-4.39 Myr for artiodactyls, 3.14-3.31 Myr for perissodactyls and 2.63-2.95 Myr for carnivorous mammals (carnivorans plus creodonts). These averages are based on a much larger, more robust dataset than most previous estimates, so they should be more reliable for any studies that need species longevity to be accurately estimated. © 2013 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

New Radiation Dosimetry Estimates for [18F]FLT based on Voxelized Phantoms.

PubMed

Mendes, B M; Ferreira, A V; Nascimento, L T C; Ferreira, S M Z M D; Silveira, M B; Silva, J B

2018-04-25

3'-Deoxy-3-[ 18 F]fluorothymidine, or [ 18 F]FLT, is a positron emission tomography (PET) tracer used in clinical studies for noninvasive assessment of proliferation activity in several types of cancer. Although the use of this PET tracer is expanding, to date, few studies concerning its dosimetry have been published. In this work, new [ 18 F]FLT dosimetry estimates are determined for human and mice using Monte Carlo simulations. Modern voxelized male and female phantoms and [ 18 F]FLT biokinetic data, both published by the ICRP, were used for simulations of human cases. For most human organs/tissues the absorbed doses were higher than those reported in ICRP Publication 128. An effective dose of 1.70E-02 mSv/MBq to the whole body was determined, which is 13.5% higher than the ICRP reference value. These new human dosimetry estimates obtained using more realistic human phantoms represent an advance in the knowledge of [ 18 F]FLT dosimetry. In addition, mice biokinetic data were obtained experimentally. These data and a previously developed voxelized mouse phantom were used for simulations of animal cases. Concerning animal dosimetry, absorbed doses for organs/tissues ranged from 4.47 ± 0.75 to 155.74 ± 59.36 mGy/MBq. The obtained set of organ/tissue radiation doses for healthy Swiss mice is a useful tool for application in animal experiment design.

A method to validate quantitative high-frequency power doppler ultrasound with fluorescence in vivo video microscopy.

PubMed

Pinter, Stephen Z; Kim, Dae-Ro; Hague, M Nicole; Chambers, Ann F; MacDonald, Ian C; Lacefield, James C

2014-08-01

Flow quantification with high-frequency (>20 MHz) power Doppler ultrasound can be performed objectively using the wall-filter selection curve (WFSC) method to select the cutoff velocity that yields a best-estimate color pixel density (CPD). An in vivo video microscopy system (IVVM) is combined with high-frequency power Doppler ultrasound to provide a method for validation of CPD measurements based on WFSCs in mouse testicular vessels. The ultrasound and IVVM systems are instrumented so that the mouse remains on the same imaging platform when switching between the two modalities. In vivo video microscopy provides gold-standard measurements of vascular diameter to validate power Doppler CPD estimates. Measurements in four image planes from three mice exhibit wide variation in the optimal cutoff velocity and indicate that a predetermined cutoff velocity setting can introduce significant errors in studies intended to quantify vascularity. Consistent with previously published flow-phantom data, in vivo WFSCs exhibited three characteristic regions and detectable plateaus. Selection of a cutoff velocity at the right end of the plateau yielded a CPD close to the gold-standard vascular volume fraction estimated using IVVM. An investigator can implement the WFSC method to help adapt cutoff velocity to current blood flow conditions and thereby improve the accuracy of power Doppler for quantitative microvascular imaging. Copyright © 2014 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends.

PubMed

Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-11-06

Limiting the adverse effects of seasonal influenza outbreaks at state or city level requires close monitoring of localized outbreaks and reliable forecasts of their progression. Whereas forecasting models for influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) are becoming increasingly available, their applicability to localized outbreaks is limited by the nonavailability of real-time observations of the current outbreak state at local scales. Surveillance data collected by various health departments are widely accepted as the reference standard for estimating the state of outbreaks, and in the absence of surveillance data, nowcast proxies built using Web-based activities such as search engine queries, tweets, and access of health-related webpages can be useful. Nowcast estimates of state and municipal ILI were previously published by Google Flu Trends (GFT); however, validations of these estimates were seldom reported. The aim of this study was to develop and validate models to nowcast ILI at subregional geographic scales. We built nowcast models based on autoregressive (autoregressive integrated moving average; ARIMA) and supervised regression methods (Random forests) at the US state level using regional weighted ILI and Web-based search activity derived from Google's Extended Trends application programming interface. We validated the performance of these methods using actual surveillance data for the 50 states across six seasons. We also built state-level nowcast models using state-level estimates of ILI and compared the accuracy of these estimates with the estimates of the regional models extrapolated to the state level and with the nowcast estimates published by GFT. Models built using regional ILI extrapolated to state level had a median correlation of 0.84 (interquartile range: 0.74-0.91) and a median root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.01 (IQR: 0.74-1.50), with noticeable variability across seasons and by state population size. Model forms that hypothesize the availability of timely state-level surveillance data show significantly lower errors of 0.83 (0.55-0.23). Compared with GFT, the latter model forms have lower errors but also lower correlation. These results suggest that the proposed methods may be an alternative to the discontinued GFT and that further improvements in the quality of subregional nowcasts may require increased access to more finely resolved surveillance data. ©Sasikiran Kandula, Daniel Hsu, Jeffrey Shaman. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 06.11.2017.

Predicting crystalline lens fall caused by accommodation from changes in wavefront error

PubMed Central

He, Lin; Applegate, Raymond A.

2011-01-01

PURPOSE To illustrate and develop a method for estimating crystalline lens decentration as a function of accommodative response using changes in wavefront error and show the method and limitations using previously published data (2004) from 2 iridectomized monkey eyes so that clinicians understand how spherical aberration can induce coma, in particular in intraocular lens surgery. SETTINGS College of Optometry, University of Houston, Houston, USA. DESIGN Evaluation of diagnostic test or technology. METHODS Lens decentration was estimated by displacing downward the wavefront error of the lens with respect to the limiting aperture (7.0 mm) and ocular first surface wavefront error for each accommodative response (0.00 to 11.00 diopters) until measured values of vertical coma matched previously published experimental data (2007). Lens decentration was also calculated using an approximation formula that only included spherical aberration and vertical coma. RESULTS The change in calculated vertical coma was consistent with downward lens decentration. Calculated downward lens decentration peaked at approximately 0.48 mm of vertical decentration in the right eye and approximately 0.31 mm of decentration in the left eye using all Zernike modes through the 7th radial order. Calculated lens decentration using only coma and spherical aberration formulas was peaked at approximately 0.45 mm in the right eye and approximately 0.23 mm in the left eye. CONCLUSIONS Lens fall as a function of accommodation was quantified noninvasively using changes in vertical coma driven principally by the accommodation-induced changes in spherical aberration. The newly developed method was valid for a large pupil only. PMID:21700108

Dentalmaps: Automatic Dental Delineation for Radiotherapy Planning in Head-and-Neck Cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thariat, Juliette, E-mail: jthariat@hotmail.com; Ramus, Liliane; INRIA

Purpose: To propose an automatic atlas-based segmentation framework of the dental structures, called Dentalmaps, and to assess its accuracy and relevance to guide dental care in the context of intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: A multi-atlas-based segmentation, less sensitive to artifacts than previously published head-and-neck segmentation methods, was used. The manual segmentations of a 21-patient database were first deformed onto the query using nonlinear registrations with the training images and then fused to estimate the consensus segmentation of the query. Results: The framework was evaluated with a leave-one-out protocol. The maximum doses estimated using manual contours were considered as groundmore » truth and compared with the maximum doses estimated using automatic contours. The dose estimation error was within 2-Gy accuracy in 75% of cases (with a median of 0.9 Gy), whereas it was within 2-Gy accuracy in 30% of cases only with the visual estimation method without any contour, which is the routine practice procedure. Conclusions: Dose estimates using this framework were more accurate than visual estimates without dental contour. Dentalmaps represents a useful documentation and communication tool between radiation oncologists and dentists in routine practice. Prospective multicenter assessment is underway on patients extrinsic to the database.« less

Epilepsy in Sweden: health care costs and loss of productivity--a register-based approach.

PubMed

Bolin, Kristian; Lundgren, Anders; Berggren, Fredrik; Källén, Kristina

2012-12-01

The objective was to estimate health care costs and productivity losses due to epilepsy in Sweden and to compare these estimates to previously published estimates. Register data on health care utilisation, pharmaceutical sales, permanent disability and mortality were used to calculate health care costs and costs that accrue due to productivity losses. By linkage of register information, we were able to distinguish pharmaceuticals prescribed against epilepsy from prescriptions that were prompted by other indications. The estimated total cost of epilepsy in Sweden in 2009 was 441 million, which corresponds to an annual per-patient cost of 8,275. Health care accounted for about 16% of the estimated total cost, and drug costs accounted for about 7% of the total cost. The estimated health care cost corresponded to about 0.2% of the total health care cost in Sweden in 2009. Indirect costs were estimated at 370 million, 84% of which was due to sickness absenteeism. Costs resulting from epilepsy-attributable premature deaths or permanent disability to work accounted for about 1% of the total indirect cost in Sweden in 2009. The per-patient cost of epilepsy is substantial. Thus, even though the prevalence of the illness is relatively small, the aggregated cost that epilepsy incurs on society is significant.

Mapping patient pathways and estimating resource use for point of care versus standard testing and treatment of chlamydia and gonorrhoea in genitourinary medicine clinics in the UK.

PubMed

Adams, Elisabeth J; Ehrlich, Alice; Turner, Katherine M E; Shah, Kunj; Macleod, John; Goldenberg, Simon; Meray, Robin K; Pearce, Vikki; Horner, Patrick

2014-07-23

We aimed to explore patient pathways using a chlamydia/gonorrhoea point-of-care (POC) nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT), and estimate and compare the costs of the proposed POC pathways with the current pathways using standard laboratory-based NAAT testing. Workshops were conducted with healthcare professionals at four sexual health clinics representing diverse models of care in the UK. They mapped out current pathways that used chlamydia/gonorrhoea tests, and constructed new pathways using a POC NAAT. Healthcare professionals' time was assessed in each pathway. The proposed POC pathways were then priced using a model built in Microsoft Excel, and compared to previously published costs for pathways using standard NAAT-based testing in an off-site laboratory. Pathways using a POC NAAT for asymptomatic and symptomatic patients and chlamydia/gonorrhoea-only tests were shorter and less expensive than most of the current pathways. Notably, we estimate that POC testing as part of a sexual health screen for symptomatic patients, or as stand-alone chlamydia/gonorrhoea testing, could reduce costs per patient by as much as £16 or £6, respectively. In both cases, healthcare professionals' time would be reduced by approximately 10 min per patient. POC testing for chlamydia/gonorrhoea in a clinical setting may reduce costs and clinician time, and may lead to more appropriate and quicker care for patients. Further study is warranted on how to best implement POC testing in clinics, and on the broader clinical and cost implications of this technology. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Short communication: Genetic variation in choice consistency for cows accessing automatic milking units.

PubMed

Løvendahl, Peter; Sørensen, Lars Peter; Bjerring, Martin; Lassen, Jan

2016-12-01

Dairy cows milked in automatic milking systems (AMS) with more than 1 milking box may, as individuals, have a preference for specific milking boxes if allowed free choice. Estimates of quantitative genetic variation in behavioral traits of farmed animals have previously been reported, with estimates of heritability ranging widely. However, for the consistency of choice in dairy cows, almost no published estimates of heritability exist. The hypothesis for this study was that choice consistency is partly under additive genetic control and partly controlled by permanent environmental (animal) effects. The aims of this study were to obtain estimates of genetic and phenotypic parameters for choice consistency in dairy cows milked in AMS herds. Data were obtained from 5 commercial Danish herds (I-V) with 2 AMS milking boxes (A, B). Milking data were only from milkings where both the present and the previous milkings were coded as completed. This filter was used to fulfill a criterion of free-choice situation (713,772 milkings, 1,231 cows). The lactation was divided into 20 segments covering 15d each, from 5 to 305d in milk. Choice consistency scores were obtained as the fraction of milkings without change of box [i.e., 1.0 - µ(box change)] for each segment. Data were analyzed for one part of lactation at a time using a linear mixed model for first-parity cows alone and for all parities jointly. Choice consistency was found to be only weakly heritable (heritability=0.02 to 0.14) in first as well as in later parities, and having intermediate repeatability (repeatability coefficients=0.27 to 0.56). Heritability was especially low at early and late lactation states. These results indicate that consistency, which is itself an indication of repeated similar choices, is also repeatable as a trait observed over longer time periods. However, the genetic background seems to play a smaller role compared with that of the permanent animal effects, indicating that consistency could also be a learned behavior. We concluded that consistency in choices are quantifiable, but only under weak genetic control. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Amino acid composition of rumen bacteria and protozoa in cattle.

PubMed

Sok, M; Ouellet, D R; Firkins, J L; Pellerin, D; Lapierre, H

2017-07-01

Because microbial crude protein (MCP) constitutes more than 50% of the protein digested in cattle, its AA composition is needed to adequately estimate AA supply. Our objective was to update the AA contributions of the rumen microbial AA flowing to the duodenum using only studies from cattle, differentiating between fluid-associated bacteria (FAB), particle-associated bacteria (PAB), and protozoa, based on published literature (53, 16, and 18 treatment means were used for each type of microorganism, respectively). In addition, Cys and Met reported concentrations were retained only when an adequate protection of the sulfur groups was performed before the acid hydrolysis. The total AA (or true protein) fraction represented 82.4% of CP in bacteria. For 10 AA, including 4 essential AA, the AA composition differed between protozoa and bacteria. The most noticeable differences were a 45% lower Lys concentration and 40% higher Ala concentration in bacteria than in protozoa. Differences between FAB and PAB were less pronounced than differences between bacteria and protozoa. Assuming 33% FAB, 50% PAB, and 17% of protozoa in MCP duodenal flow, the updated concentrations of AA would decrease supply estimates of Met, Thr, and Val originating from MCP and increase those of Lys and Phe by 5 to 10% compared with those calculated using the FAB composition reported previously. Therefore, inclusion of the contribution of PAB and protozoa to the duodenal MCP flow is needed to adequately estimate AA supply from microbial origin when a factorial method is used to estimate duodenal AA flow. Furthermore, acknowledging the fact that hydrolysis of 1 kg of true microbial protein yields 1.16 kg of free AA substantially increases the estimates of AA supply from MCP. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Safety of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: A systematic review.

PubMed

Pereira, Luisa Santos; Müller, Vanessa Teixeira; da Mota Gomes, Marleide; Rotenberg, Alexander; Fregni, Felipe

2016-04-01

Approximately one-third of patients with epilepsy remain with pharmacologically intractable seizures. An emerging therapeutic modality for seizure suppression is repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). Despite being considered a safe technique, rTMS carries the risk of inducing seizures, among other milder adverse events, and thus, its safety in the population with epilepsy should be continuously assessed. We performed an updated systematic review on the safety and tolerability of rTMS in patients with epilepsy, similar to a previous report published in 2007 (Bae EH, Schrader LM, Machii K, Alonso-Alonso M, Riviello JJ, Pascual-Leone A, Rotenberg A. Safety and tolerability of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: a review of the literature. Epilepsy Behav. 2007; 10 (4): 521-8), and estimated the risk of seizures and other adverse events during or shortly after rTMS application. We searched the literature for reports of rTMS being applied on patients with epilepsy, with no time or language restrictions, and obtained studies published from January 1990 to August 2015. A total of 46 publications were identified, of which 16 were new studies published after the previous safety review of 2007. We noted the total number of subjects with epilepsy undergoing rTMS, medication usage, incidence of adverse events, and rTMS protocol parameters: frequency, intensity, total number of stimuli, train duration, intertrain intervals, coil type, and stimulation site. Our main data analysis included separate calculations for crude per subject risk of seizure and other adverse events, as well as risk per 1000 stimuli. We also performed an exploratory, secondary analysis on the risk of seizure and other adverse events according to the type of coil used (figure-of-8 or circular), stimulation frequency (≤ 1 Hz or > 1 Hz), pulse intensity in terms of motor threshold (<100% or ≥ 100%), and number of stimuli per session (< 500 or ≥ 500). Presence or absence of adverse events was reported in 40 studies (n = 426 subjects). A total of 78 (18.3%) subjects reported adverse events, of which 85% were mild. Headache or dizziness was the most common one, occurring in 8.9%. We found a crude per subject seizure risk of 2.9% (95% CI: 1.3-4.5), given that 12 subjects reported seizures out of 410 subjects included in the analysis after data of patients with epilepsia partialis continua or status epilepticus were excluded from the estimate. Only one of the reported seizures was considered atypical in terms of the clinical characteristics of the patients' baseline seizures. The atypical seizure happened during high-frequency rTMS with maximum stimulator output for speech arrest, clinically arising from the region of stimulation. Although we estimated a larger crude per subject seizure risk compared with the previous safety review, the corresponding confidence intervals contained both risks. Furthermore, the exclusive case of atypical seizure was the same as reported in the previous report. We conclude that the risk of seizure induction in patients with epilepsy undergoing rTMS is small and that the risk of other adverse events is similar to that of rTMS applied to other conditions and to healthy subjects. Our results should be interpreted with caution, given the need for adjusted analysis controlling for potential confounders, such as baseline seizure frequency. The similarity between the safety profiles of rTMS applied to the population with epilepsy and to individuals without epilepsy supports further investigation of rTMS as a therapy for seizure suppression. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Statin adherence and risk of acute cardiovascular events among women: a cohort study accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence.

PubMed

Lavikainen, Piia; Helin-Salmivaara, Arja; Eerola, Mervi; Fang, Gang; Hartikainen, Juha; Huupponen, Risto; Korhonen, Maarit Jaana

2016-06-03

Previous studies on the effect of statin adherence on cardiovascular events in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have adjusted for time-dependent confounding, but potentially introduced bias into their estimates as adherence and confounders were measured simultaneously. We aimed to evaluate the effect when accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence as well as time sequence between factors. Retrospective cohort study. Finnish healthcare registers. Women aged 45-64 years initiating statin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 2001-2004 (n=42 807). Acute cardiovascular event defined as a composite of acute coronary syndrome and acute ischaemic stroke was our primary outcome. Low-energy fractures were used as a negative control outcome to evaluate the healthy-adherer effect. During the 3-year follow-up, 474 women experienced the primary outcome event and 557 suffered a low-energy fracture. The causal HR estimated with marginal structural model for acute cardiovascular events for all the women who remained adherent (proportion of days covered ≥80%) to statin therapy during the previous adherence assessment year was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.94) when compared with everybody remaining non-adherent (proportion of days covered <80%). The result was robust against alternative model specifications. Statin adherers had a potentially reduced risk of experiencing low-energy fractures compared with non-adherers (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.07). Our study, which took into account the time dependence of adherence and confounders, as well as temporal order between these factors, is support for the concept that adherence to statins in women in primary prevention decreases the risk of acute cardiovascular events by about one-fifth in comparison to non-adherence. However, part of the observed effect of statin adherence on acute cardiovascular events may be due to the healthy-adherer effect. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Dietary Protein Intake in Young Children in Selected Low-Income Countries Is Generally Adequate in Relation to Estimated Requirements for Healthy Children, Except When Complementary Food Intake Is Low.

PubMed

Arsenault, Joanne E; Brown, Kenneth H

2017-05-01

Background: Previous research indicates that young children in low-income countries (LICs) generally consume greater amounts of protein than published estimates of protein requirements, but this research did not account for protein quality based on the mix of amino acids and the digestibility of ingested protein. Objective: Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake by young children in LICs, accounting for protein quality. Methods: Seven data sets with information on dietary intake for children (6-35 mo of age) from 6 LICs (Peru, Guatemala, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Zambia) were reanalyzed to estimate protein and amino acid intake and assess adequacy. The protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score of each child's diet was calculated and multiplied by the original (crude) protein intake to obtain an estimate of available protein intake. Distributions of usual intake were obtained to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake for each cohort according to Estimated Average Requirements. Results: The prevalence of inadequate protein intake was highest in breastfeeding children aged 6-8 mo: 24% of Bangladeshi and 16% of Peruvian children. With the exception of Bangladesh, the prevalence of inadequate available protein intake decreased by age 9-12 mo and was very low in all sites (0-2%) after 12 mo of age. Inadequate protein intake in children <12 mo of age was due primarily to low energy intake from complementary foods, not inadequate protein density. Conclusions: Overall, most children consumed protein amounts greater than requirements, except for the younger breastfeeding children, who were consuming low amounts of complementary foods. These findings reinforce previous evidence that dietary protein is not generally limiting for children in LICs compared with estimated requirements for healthy children, even after accounting for protein quality. However, unmeasured effects of infection and intestinal dysfunction on the children's protein requirements could modify this conclusion.

Serious fungal infections in Pakistan.

PubMed

Jabeen, K; Farooqi, J; Mirza, S; Denning, D; Zafar, A

2017-06-01

The true burden of fungal infection in Pakistan is unknown. High-risk populations for fungal infections [tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, asthma, cancer, transplant and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection] are numerous. Here, we estimate the burden of fungal infections to highlight their public health significance. Whole and at-risk population estimates were obtained from the WHO (TB), BREATHE study (COPD), UNAIDS (HIV), GLOBOCAN (cancer) and Heartfile (diabetes). Published data from Pakistan reporting fungal infections rates in general and specific populations were reviewed and used when applicable. Estimates were made for the whole population or specific populations at risk, as previously described in the LIFE methodology. Of the 184,500,000 people in Pakistan, an estimated 3,280,549 (1.78%) are affected by a serious fungal infection, omitting all cutaneous infection, oral candidiasis and allergic fungal sinusitis, which we could not estimate. Compared with other countries, the rates of candidaemia (21/100,000) and mucormycosis (14/100,000) are estimated to be very high, and are based on data from India. Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis rates are estimated to be high (39/100,000) because of the high TB burden. Invasive aspergillosis was estimated to be around 5.9/100,000. Fungal keratitis is also problematic in Pakistan, with an estimated rate of 44/100,000. Pakistan probably has a high rate of certain life- or sight-threatening fungal infections.

Estimation of clinical trial success rates and related parameters.

PubMed

Wong, Chi Heem; Siah, Kien Wei; Lo, Andrew W

2018-01-31

Previous estimates of drug development success rates rely on relatively small samples from databases curated by the pharmaceutical industry and are subject to potential selection biases. Using a sample of 406 038 entries of clinical trial data for over 21 143 compounds from January 1, 2000 to October 31, 2015, we estimate aggregate clinical trial success rates and durations. We also compute disaggregated estimates across several trial features including disease type, clinical phase, industry or academic sponsor, biomarker presence, lead indication status, and time. In several cases, our results differ significantly in detail from widely cited statistics. For example, oncology has a 3.4% success rate in our sample vs. 5.1% in prior studies. However, after declining to 1.7% in 2012, this rate has improved to 2.5% and 8.3% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. In addition, trials that use biomarkers in patient-selection have higher overall success probabilities than trials without biomarkers. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Childbearing in adolescents aged 12-15 years in low resource countries: a neglected issue. New estimates from demographic and household surveys in 42 countries.

PubMed

Neal, Sarah; Matthews, Zoë; Frost, Melanie; Fogstad, Helga; Camacho, Alma V; Laski, Laura

2012-09-01

There is strong evidence that the health risks associated with adolescent pregnancy are concentrated among the youngest girls (e.g. those under 16 years). Fertility rates in this age group have not previously been comprehensively estimated and published. By drawing data from 42 large, nationally representative household surveys in low resource countries carried out since 2003 this article presents estimates of age-specific birth rates for girls aged 12-15, and the percentage of girls who give birth at age 15 or younger. From these we estimate that approximately 2.5 million births occur to girls aged under 16 in low resource countries each year. The highest rates are found in Sub-Saharan Africa, where in Chad, Guinea, Mali, Mozambique, Niger and Sierra Leone more than 10% of girls become mothers before they are 16. Strategies to reduce these high levels are vital if we are to alleviate poor reproductive health. © 2012 The Authors  Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica© 2012 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Proportion of Dermatitis Attributed to Work Exposures in the Working Population, United States, 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Ehrlich, Emily; Bunn, Terry; Kanotra, Sarojini; Fussman, Chris; Rosenman, Kenneth D.

2016-01-01

Background The US employer-based surveillance system for work-related health conditions underestimates the prevalence of work-related dermatitis. Objective The authors sought to utilize information from workers to improve the accuracy of prevalence estimates for work-related dermatitis. Methods Three state health departments included questions in the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey designed to ascertain the prevalence of dermatitis in the working population, as well as healthcare experiences, personal perceptions of work-relatedness, and job changes associated with dermatitis. Results The percentage of working respondents who reported receiving a clinician’s opinion that their dermatitis was work-related was between 3.8% and 10.2%. When patients’ perceptions were considered, the work-related dermatitis prevalence estimate increased to between 12.9% and 17.6%. Conclusions Including patients’ perceptions of work-relatedness produced a larger prevalence estimate for work-related dermatitis than the previously published estimate of 5.6%, which included only those cases of dermatitis attributed to work by healthcare professionals. PMID:24619601

Near-infrared reflectance spectra of mixtures of kaolin-group minerals: Use in clay mineral studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crowley, James K.; Vergo, Norma

1988-01-01

Near-infrared (NIR) reflectance spectra for mixtures of ordered kaolinite and ordered dickite have been found to simulate the spectral response of disordered kaolinite. The amount of octahedral vacancy disorder in nine disordered kaolinite samples was estimated by comparing the sample spectra to the spectra of reference mixtures. The resulting estimates are consistent with previously published estimates of vacancy disorder for similar kaolin minerals that were modeled from calculated X-ray diffraction patterns. The ordered kaolinite and dickite samples used in the reference mixtures were carefully selected to avoid undesirable particle size effects that could bias the spectral results.NIR spectra were also recorded for laboratory mixtures of ordered kaolinite and halloysite to assess whether the spectra could be potentially useful for determining mineral proportions in natural physical mixtures of these two clays. Although the kaolinite-halloysite proportions could only be roughly estimated from the mixture spectra, the halloysite component was evident even when halloysite was present in only minor amounts. A similar approach using NIR spectra for laboratory mixtures may have applications in other studies of natural clay mixtures.

Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2013-11-01

This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of the MEGAN (v2.1) biogenic emission model in the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henrot, Alexandra-Jane; Stanelle, Tanja; Schröder, Sabine; Siegenthaler, Colombe; Taraborrelli, Domenico; Schultz, Martin G.

2017-02-01

A biogenic emission scheme based on the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 (Guenther et al., 2012) has been integrated into the ECHAM6-HAMMOZ chemistry climate model in order to calculate the emissions from terrestrial vegetation of 32 compounds. The estimated annual global total for the reference simulation is 634 Tg C yr-1 (simulation period 2000-2012). Isoprene is the main contributor to the average emission total, accounting for 66 % (417 Tg C yr-1), followed by several monoterpenes (12 %), methanol (7 %), acetone (3.6 %), and ethene (3.6 %). Regionally, most of the high annual emissions are found to be associated with tropical regions and tropical vegetation types. In order to evaluate the implementation of the biogenic model in ECHAM-HAMMOZ, global and regional biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions of the reference simulation were compared to previous published experiment results with MEGAN. Several sensitivity simulations were performed to study the impact of different model input and parameters related to the vegetation cover and the ECHAM6 climate. BVOC emissions obtained here are within the range of previous published estimates. The large range of emission estimates can be attributed to the use of different input data and empirical coefficients within different setups of MEGAN. The biogenic model shows a high sensitivity to the changes in plant functional type (PFT) distributions and associated emission factors for most of the compounds. The global emission impact for isoprene is about -9 %, but reaches +75 % for α-pinene when switching from global emission factor maps to PFT-specific emission factor distributions. The highest sensitivity of isoprene emissions is calculated when considering soil moisture impact, with a global decrease of 12.5 % when the soil moisture activity factor is included in the model parameterization. Nudging ECHAM6 climate towards ERA-Interim reanalysis has an impact on the biogenic emissions, slightly lowering the global total emissions and their interannual variability.

Comparison of epicardial adipose tissue radiodensity threshold between contrast and non-contrast enhanced computed tomography scans: A cohort study of derivation and validation.

PubMed

Xu, Lingyu; Xu, Yuancheng; Coulden, Richard; Sonnex, Emer; Hrybouski, Stanislau; Paterson, Ian; Butler, Craig

2018-05-11

Epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) volume derived from contrast enhanced (CE) computed tomography (CT) scans is not well validated. We aim to establish a reliable threshold to accurately quantify EAT volume from CE datasets. We analyzed EAT volume on paired non-contrast (NC) and CE datasets from 25 patients to derive appropriate Hounsfield (HU) cutpoints to equalize two EAT volume estimates. The gold standard threshold (-190HU, -30HU) was used to assess EAT volume on NC datasets. For CE datasets, EAT volumes were estimated using three previously reported thresholds: (-190HU, -30HU), (-190HU, -15HU), (-175HU, -15HU) and were analyzed by a semi-automated 3D Fat analysis software. Subsequently, we applied a threshold correction to (-190HU, -30HU) based on mean differences in radiodensity between NC and CE images (ΔEATrd = CE radiodensity - NC radiodensity). We then validated our findings on EAT threshold in 21 additional patients with paired CT datasets. EAT volume from CE datasets using previously published thresholds consistently underestimated EAT volume from NC dataset standard by a magnitude of 8.2%-19.1%. Using our corrected threshold (-190HU, -3HU) in CE datasets yielded statistically identical EAT volume to NC EAT volume in the validation cohort (186.1 ± 80.3 vs. 185.5 ± 80.1 cm 3 , Δ = 0.6 cm 3 , 0.3%, p = 0.374). Estimating EAT volume from contrast enhanced CT scans using a corrected threshold of -190HU, -3HU provided excellent agreement with EAT volume from non-contrast CT scans using a standard threshold of -190HU, -30HU. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

New Correction Factors Based on Seasonal Variability of Outdoor Temperature for Estimating Annual Radon Concentrations in UK.

PubMed

Daraktchieva, Z

2017-06-01

Indoor radon concentrations generally vary with season. Radon gas enters buildings from beneath due to a small air pressure difference between the inside of a house and outdoors. This underpressure which draws soil gas including radon into the house depends on the difference between the indoor and outdoor temperatures. The variation in a typical house in UK showed that the mean indoor radon concentration reaches a maximum in January and a minimum in July. Sine functions were used to model the indoor radon data and monthly average outdoor temperatures, covering the period between 2005 and 2014. The analysis showed a strong negative correlation between the modelled indoor radon data and outdoor temperature. This correlation was used to calculate new correction factors that could be used for estimation of annual radon concentration in UK homes. The comparison between the results obtained with the new correction factors and the previously published correction factors showed that the new correction factors perform consistently better on the selected data sets. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Examining the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide rates in the USA using a new and improved state-level gun ownership proxy.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2014-12-01

Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981-2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Annual variation in the atmospheric radon concentration in Japan.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yuka; Yasuoka, Yumi; Omori, Yasutaka; Nagahama, Hiroyuki; Sanada, Tetsuya; Muto, Jun; Suzuki, Toshiyuki; Homma, Yoshimi; Ihara, Hayato; Kubota, Kazuhito; Mukai, Takahiro

2015-08-01

Anomalous atmospheric variations in radon related to earthquakes have been observed in hourly exhaust-monitoring data from radioisotope institutes in Japan. The extraction of seismic anomalous radon variations would be greatly aided by understanding the normal pattern of variation in radon concentrations. Using atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data from five sampling sites, we show that a sinusoidal regression curve can be fitted to the data. In addition, we identify areas where the atmospheric radon variation is significantly affected by the variation in atmospheric turbulence and the onshore-offshore pattern of Asian monsoons. Furthermore, by comparing the sinusoidal regression curve for the normal annual (seasonal) variations at the five sites to the sinusoidal regression curve for a previously published dataset of radon values at the five Japanese prefectures, we can estimate the normal annual variation pattern. By fitting sinusoidal regression curves to the previously published dataset containing sites in all Japanese prefectures, we find that 72% of the Japanese prefectures satisfy the requirements of the sinusoidal regression curve pattern. Using the normal annual variation pattern of atmospheric daily minimum radon concentration data, these prefectures are suitable areas for obtaining anomalous radon variations related to earthquakes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bromamine Decomposition Revisited: A Holistic Approach for Analyzing Acid and Base Catalysis Kinetics.

PubMed

Wahman, David G; Speitel, Gerald E; Katz, Lynn E

2017-11-21

Chloramine chemistry is complex, with a variety of reactions occurring in series and parallel and many that are acid or base catalyzed, resulting in numerous rate constants. Bromide presence increases system complexity even further with possible bromamine and bromochloramine formation. Therefore, techniques for parameter estimation must address this complexity through thoughtful experimental design and robust data analysis approaches. The current research outlines a rational basis for constrained data fitting using Brønsted theory, application of the microscopic reversibility principle to reversible acid or base catalyzed reactions, and characterization of the relative significance of parallel reactions using fictive product tracking. This holistic approach was used on a comprehensive and well-documented data set for bromamine decomposition, allowing new interpretations of existing data by revealing that a previously published reaction scheme was not robust; it was not able to describe monobromamine or dibromamine decay outside of the conditions for which it was calibrated. The current research's simplified model (3 reactions, 17 constants) represented the experimental data better than the previously published model (4 reactions, 28 constants). A final model evaluation was conducted based on representative drinking water conditions to determine a minimal model (3 reactions, 8 constants) applicable for drinking water conditions.

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping by Inversion of a Perturbation Field Model: Correlation with Brain Iron in Normal Aging

PubMed Central

Poynton, Clare; Jenkinson, Mark; Adalsteinsson, Elfar; Sullivan, Edith V.; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Wells, William

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that iron deposition occurs in specific regions of the brain in normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's disease. Iron deposition changes the magnetic susceptibility of tissue, which alters the MR signal phase, and allows estimation of susceptibility differences using quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM). We present a method for quantifying susceptibility by inversion of a perturbation model, or ‘QSIP’. The perturbation model relates phase to susceptibility using a kernel calculated in the spatial domain, in contrast to previous Fourier-based techniques. A tissue/air susceptibility atlas is used to estimate B0 inhomogeneity. QSIP estimates in young and elderly subjects are compared to postmortem iron estimates, maps of the Field-Dependent Relaxation Rate Increase (FDRI), and the L1-QSM method. Results for both groups showed excellent agreement with published postmortem data and in-vivo FDRI: statistically significant Spearman correlations ranging from Rho = 0.905 to Rho = 1.00 were obtained. QSIP also showed improvement over FDRI and L1-QSM: reduced variance in susceptibility estimates and statistically significant group differences were detected in striatal and brainstem nuclei, consistent with age-dependent iron accumulation in these regions. PMID:25248179

A method for estimating spatially variable seepage and hydrualic conductivity in channels with very mild slopes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shanafield, Margaret; Niswonger, Richard G.; Prudic, David E.; Pohll, Greg; Susfalk, Richard; Panday, Sorab

2014-01-01

Infiltration along ephemeral channels plays an important role in groundwater recharge in arid regions. A model is presented for estimating spatial variability of seepage due to streambed heterogeneity along channels based on measurements of streamflow-front velocities in initially dry channels. The diffusion-wave approximation to the Saint-Venant equations, coupled with Philip's equation for infiltration, is connected to the groundwater model MODFLOW and is calibrated by adjusting the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the channel bed. The model is applied to portions of two large water delivery canals, which serve as proxies for natural ephemeral streams. Estimated seepage rates compare well with previously published values. Possible sources of error stem from uncertainty in Manning's roughness coefficients, soil hydraulic properties and channel geometry. Model performance would be most improved through more frequent longitudinal estimates of channel geometry and thalweg elevation, and with measurements of stream stage over time to constrain wave timing and shape. This model is a potentially valuable tool for estimating spatial variability in longitudinal seepage along intermittent and ephemeral channels over a wide range of bed slopes and the influence of seepage rates on groundwater levels.

Meta-analysis of the prevalence of mastitis and associated risk factors in dairy cattle in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Getaneh, Abraham Mekibeb; Gebremedhin, Endrias Zewdu

2017-04-01

Mastitis is among the most prevalent disease that contributes for the reduction of milk production in dairy herds. Although several published studies have estimated the prevalence of mastitis, variation among studies is great. The objective of the present meta-analysis was to provide a pooled estimate of the prevalence of overall, clinical, and subclinical mastitis in dairy cattle in Ethiopia. A pooled estimate was also conducted by potential risk factors. The literature search was restricted to studies published in English language from January 2002 to June 2016. Meta-analysis of 39 studies was done under random effects model using metafor package in R software. The pooled estimate of the overall prevalence of mastitis on cow-basis was found to be 47.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 42.0, 52.0). The pooled prevalence with the 95% CI for clinical and subclinical mastitis was 8.3% (95% CI = 6.5, 10.3) and 37% (95% CI = 32.9, 40.7) respectively. There is a statistically significant and high heterogeneity of the prevalence estimates between published studies. The odds of occurrence of mastitis were higher in cows at early (odds ratio [OR] = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.4, 1.8) and late lactation (OR = 1.3; 95% CI = 1.2, 1.5) than mid lactation, in cows with 3-4 (OR = 1.5; 95% CI = 1.4, 1.7) and >4 parity number (OR = 2.9; 95% CI = 2.6, 3.4) than those with 1-2 parity number. Previous history of mastitis, floor type, milking hygiene, and udder injury had also statistically significant effect on pooled prevalence of mastitis (P < 0.05). The present study reported that there is high prevalence of mastitis in dairy cows in Ethiopia, which could contribute to the low productivity in lactating cows. The statistically significant association of risk factors such as floor type, milking hygiene, and presence of udder injury with mastitis may suggest that dairy farmers can reduce the occurrence of the disease by improving their management practices.

Changes in Soil Carbon Storage After Cultivation

DOE Data Explorer

Mann, L. K. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2004-01-01

Previously published data from 625 paired soil samples were used to predict carbon in cultivated soil as a function of initial carbon content. A 30-cm sampling depth provided a less variable estimate (r² = 0.9) of changes in carbon than a 15-cm sampling depth (r² = 0.6). Regression analyses of changes in carbon storage in relation to years of cultivation confirmed that the greatest rates of change occurred in the first 20 y. An initial carbon effect was present in all analyses: soils very low in carbon tended to gain slight amounts of carbon after cultivation, but soils high in carbon lost at least 20% during cultivation. Carbon losses from most agricultural soils are estimated to average less than 20% of initial values or less than 1.5 kg/m² within the top 30 cm. These estimates should not be applied to depths greater than 30 cm and would be improved with more bulk density information and equivalent sample volumes.

Photometric light curves for seven rapidly-rotating K dwarfs in the Pleiades and Alpha Persei clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stauffer, John R.; Schild, Rudolph A.; Baliunas, Sallie L.; Africano, John L.

1987-01-01

Light curves and period estimates were obtained for several Pleiades and Alpha Persei cluster K dwarfs which were identified as rapid rotators in earlier spectroscopic studies. A few of the stars have previously-published light curves, making it possible to study the long-term variability of the light-curve shapes. The general cause of the photometric variability observed for these stars is an asymmetric distribution of photospheric inhomogeneities (starspots). The presence of these inhomogeneities combined with the rotation of the star lead to the light curves observed. The photometric periods derived are thus identified with the rotation period of the star, making it possible to estimate equatorial rotational velocities for these K dwarfs. These data are of particular importance because the clusters are sufficiently young that stars of this mass should have just arrived on the main sequence. These data could be used to estimate the temperatures and sizes of the spot groups necessary to produce the observed light curves for these stars.

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

A remote sensing analysis of Adelie penguin rookeries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwaller, Mathew R.; Olson, Charles E., Jr.; Ma, Zhenqui; Zhu, Zhiliang; Dahmer, Paul

1989-01-01

The Adelie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) makes up the vast majority of bird biomass in the Antarctic. As a major consumer of krill, these birds play an important role in the Antarctic food web, and they have been proposed as an indicator species of the vitality of the Southern Ocean ecosystem. This study explores the terrestrial habitat of the Adelie penguin as a target for remote sensing reconnaissance. Laboratory and ground-level reflectance measurements of Antarctic materials found in and around penguin rookeries were examined in detail. These analyses suggested data transformations which helped separate penguin rookeries from surrounding areas in Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. The physical extent of penguin rookeries on Ross and Beaufort Islands, Antarctic, was estimated from the satellite data and compared to published estimates of penguin populations. The results suggest that TM imagery may be used to identify previously undiscovered penguin rookeries, and the imagery may provide a means of developing new population estimation methods for Antarctic ornithology.

Inventory and transport of plastic debris in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

PubMed

Hoffman, Matthew J; Hittinger, Eric

2017-02-15

Plastic pollution in the world's oceans has received much attention, but there has been increasing concern about the high concentrations of plastic debris in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Using census data and methodologies used to study ocean debris we derive a first estimate of 9887 metric tonnes per year of plastic debris entering the Great Lakes. These estimates are translated into population-dependent particle inputs which are advected using currents from a hydrodynamic model to map the spatial distribution of plastic debris in the Great Lakes. Model results compare favorably with previously published sampling data. The samples are used to calibrate the model to derive surface microplastic mass estimates of 0.0211 metric tonnes in Lake Superior, 1.44 metric tonnes in Huron, and 4.41 metric tonnes in Erie. These results have many applications, including informing cleanup efforts, helping target pollution prevention, and understanding the inter-state or international flows of plastic pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the diagnostic threshold accounting for decision costs and sampling uncertainty.

PubMed

Skaltsa, Konstantina; Jover, Lluís; Carrasco, Josep Lluís

2010-10-01

Medical diagnostic tests are used to classify subjects as non-diseased or diseased. The classification rule usually consists of classifying subjects using the values of a continuous marker that is dichotomised by means of a threshold. Here, the optimum threshold estimate is found by minimising a cost function that accounts for both decision costs and sampling uncertainty. The cost function is optimised either analytically in a normal distribution setting or empirically in a free-distribution setting when the underlying probability distributions of diseased and non-diseased subjects are unknown. Inference of the threshold estimates is based on approximate analytically standard errors and bootstrap-based approaches. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed by means of a simulation study, and the sample size required for a given confidence interval precision and sample size ratio is also calculated. Finally, a case example based on previously published data concerning the diagnosis of Alzheimer's patients is provided in order to illustrate the procedure.

Data from in situ Observations of Fish Traps Set by Fishermen in St. John Waters, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1992-94

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garrison, Virginia H.; Beets, Jim; Friedlander, Alan M.; Canty, Steven

2011-01-01

In order to estimate (1) the trapping pressure within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) waters, (2) the effect of fish traps on park marine resources (both fishes and habitats), and (3) the effectiveness of park regulations in protecting marine resources, traps set by fishers were visually observed and contents censused in situ in 1992, 1993, and 1994, around St. John (U.S. Virgin Islands), within and outside of park waters. A total of 1,340 individual fish (56 species and 23 families) were identified and their lengths estimated for the 211 of 285 visually censused traps that contained fish. This dataset includes for each censused trap: location, depth, substrate/habitat, trap type and construction details, in or out of park waters, and species and estimated fork length (in centimeters) of each individual fish in a trap. Analysis and interpretation of this dataset are provided in previously published reports by the author.

New method for estimation of fluence complexity in IMRT fields and correlation with gamma analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanušová, T.; Vondráček, V.; Badraoui-Čuprová, K.; Horáková, I.; Koniarová, I.

2015-01-01

A new method for estimation of fluence complexity in Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT) fields is proposed. Unlike other previously published works, it is based on portal images calculated by the Portal Dose Calculation algorithm in Eclipse (version 8.6, Varian Medical Systems) in the plane of the EPID aS500 detector (Varian Medical Systems). Fluence complexity is given by the number and the amplitudes of dose gradients in these matrices. Our method is validated using a set of clinical plans where fluence has been smoothed manually so that each plan has a different level of complexity. Fluence complexity calculated with our tool is in accordance with the different levels of smoothing as well as results of gamma analysis, when calculated and measured dose matrices are compared. Thus, it is possible to estimate plan complexity before carrying out the measurement. If appropriate thresholds are determined which would distinguish between acceptably and overly modulated plans, this might save time in the re-planning and re-measuring process.

Cost-effectiveness of a Nutrition Education Curriculum Intervention in Elementary Schools.

PubMed

Graziose, Matthew M; Koch, Pamela A; Wang, Y Claire; Lee Gray, Heewon; Contento, Isobel R

2017-09-01

To estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of an obesity prevention nutrition education curriculum (Food, Health, & Choices) as delivered to all New York City fifth-grade public school students over 1 year. This study is a standard cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective, with a 3% discount rate and a no-intervention comparator, as recommended by the US Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Costs of implementation, administration, and future obesity-related medical costs were included. Effectiveness was based on a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in 20 public schools during the 2012-2013 school year and linked to published estimates of childhood-to-adulthood body mass index trajectories using a decision analytic model. The Food, Health, & Choices intervention was estimated to cost $8,537,900 and result in 289 fewer males and 350 fewer females becoming obese (0.8% of New York City fifth-grade public school students), saving 1,599 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and $8,098,600 in direct medical costs. Food, Health, & Choices is predicted to be cost-effective at $275/QALY (95% confidence interval, -$2,576/QALY to $2,084/QALY) with estimates up to $6,029/QALY in sensitivity analyses. This cost-effectiveness model suggests that a nutrition education curriculum in public schools is effective and cost-effective in reducing childhood obesity, consistent with the authors' hypothesis and previous literature. Future research should assess the feasibility and sustainability of scale-up. Copyright © 2016 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ULR Re-analysed Global GPS Solution for Vertical Land Motion Correction at Tide Gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Letetrel, C.; Wöppelmann, G.; Bouin, M.; Altamimi, Z.; Martine, F.; Santamaria, A.

2007-12-01

The presentation will review the recent results published by Wöppelmann et al. (2007) in Global and Planetary Change. Geocentric sea-level trend estimates were derived from the global GPS analyses conducted at ULR consortium to correct a set of relevant tide gauges from the vertical motion of the land upon which they are settled. The exercise proved worthwhile. The results showed a reduced dispersion of the estimated sea level trends, either regionally or globally, after application of the GPS corrections compared to the corrections derived from the glacio-isostatic adjustment models of Peltier (2004). Here we will focus on two important issues that were not addressed in Wöppelmann et al. (2007). The first issue concerns the noise content of our GPS solutions. Previous works have shown that GPS coordinate time series are subject to significant time-correlated (coloured) noise, with a large predominance of flicker noise (Zhang et al. 1997, Mao et al. 1999, Williams et al. 2004). The presence of coloured noise in a time series has a significant effect on the rate uncertainty, which may otherwise be underestimated by as much as an order of magnitude. We therefore carefully investigate the now 10-year long data set of reanalysed GPS solutions for noise content using the Allan variance technique (Feissel et al. 2007). Preliminary results show that the reanalysed solutions at ULR exhibit far less flicker noise than any other solution published so far in the literature available to us. The percentage of stations with flicker noise drops to only about 20%. These encouraging results advocate for a comprehensive reanalysis strategy with full coherent models over the entire observation data span. Moreover, the noise level reaches the best levels of other geodetic results recently published, namely the VLBI level in the horizontal component and the SLR level in the vertical component (Feissel et al. 2007). The second issue that we would like to address in the presentation relates to the reference frame realisation. This is indeed a long standing key issue in achieving the accuracy goal required by long term sea level studies from tide gauges. We investigate the impact of the recent transition from ITRF2000 to ITRF2005 in our previous and current sea level trend estimates.

A Simultaneous Equation Demand Model for Block Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agthe, Donald E.; Billings, R. Bruce; Dobra, John L.; Raffiee, Kambiz

1986-01-01

This paper examines the problem of simultaneous-equations bias in estimation of the water demand function under an increasing block rate structure. The Hausman specification test is used to detect the presence of simultaneous-equations bias arising from correlation of the price measures with the regression error term in the results of a previously published study of water demand in Tucson, Arizona. An alternative simultaneous equation model is proposed for estimating the elasticity of demand in the presence of block rate pricing structures and availability of service charges. This model is used to reestimate the price and rate premium elasticities of demand in Tucson, Arizona for both the usual long-run static model and for a simple short-run demand model. The results from these simultaneous equation models are consistent with a priori expectations and are unbiased.

Historian: accurate reconstruction of ancestral sequences and evolutionary rates.

PubMed

Holmes, Ian H

2017-04-15

Reconstruction of ancestral sequence histories, and estimation of parameters like indel rates, are improved by using explicit evolutionary models and summing over uncertain alignments. The previous best tool for this purpose (according to simulation benchmarks) was ProtPal, but this tool was too slow for practical use. Historian combines an efficient reimplementation of the ProtPal algorithm with performance-improving heuristics from other alignment tools. Simulation results on fidelity of rate estimation via ancestral reconstruction, along with evaluations on the structurally informed alignment dataset BAliBase 3.0, recommend Historian over other alignment tools for evolutionary applications. Historian is available at https://github.com/evoldoers/historian under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 US license. ihholmes+historian@gmail.com. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

"An estimate of the probability of vesicle exocytosis in a Monte Carlo model of buffered diffusion of calcium channel currents"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimcovic, Z. M.; Eagan, T. P.; Kidane, T. K.; Brown, R. W.; Petschek, R. G.; McEnery, M. W.

2001-10-01

The opening of voltage-dependent calcium channels results in an influx of calcium ions promoting the fusion of synaptic vesicles. The fusion leads to release of neurotransmitters, which in turn allow the propagation of nerve impulses. A Monte Carlo model of the diffusion of calcium following its surge into the cell is used to estimate the probability for exocytosis. Besides the calcium absorption by fixed and mobile buffers, key ingredients are the physical size and position of the tethered vesicle and a sensing model for the interaction of the vesicle and calcium. The release probability is compared to previously published studies where the finite vesicle size was not considered. (Supported by NIH MH55747, AHA 96001250, NSF0086643, and a CWRU Presidential Research Initiative grant.)

An Analysis of Transiting Hot Jupiters Observed with K2: WASP-55b and WASP-75b

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, B. J. M.; Anderson, D. R.; Hellier, C.; Turner, O. D.; Močnik, T.

2018-03-01

We present our analysis of the K2 short-cadence data of two previously known hot Jupiter exoplanets: WASP-55b and WASP-75b. The high precision of the K2 light curves enabled us to search for transit timing and duration variations, rotational modulation, starspots, phase-curve variations and additional transiting planets. We identified stellar variability in the WASP-75 light curve which may be an indication of rotational modulation, with an estimated period of 11.2 ± 1.5 days. We combined this with the spectroscopically measured v\\sin ({i}* ) to calculate a possible line of sight projected inclination angle of {i}* =41^\\circ +/- 16^\\circ . We also perform a global analysis of K2 and previously published data to refine the system parameters.

Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

2018-02-01

We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

Parents' work patterns and adolescent mental health.

PubMed

Dockery, Alfred; Li, Jianghong; Kendall, Garth

2009-02-01

Previous research demonstrates that non-standard work schedules undermine the stability of marriage and reduce family cohesiveness. Limited research has investigated the effects of parents working non-standard schedules on children's health and wellbeing and no published Australian studies have addressed this important issue. This paper contributes to bridging this knowledge gap by focusing on adolescents aged 15-20 years and by including sole parent families which have been omitted in previous research, using panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. Multilevel linear regression models are estimated to analyse the association between parental work schedules and hours of work and measures of adolescents' mental health derived from the SF-36 Health Survey. Evidence of negative impacts of parents working non-standard hours upon adolescent wellbeing is found to exist primarily within sole parent families.

Energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium and relaxation processes.

PubMed

Ming, Yi; Ling, Dong-Bo; Li, Hui-Min; Ding, Ze-Jun

2017-06-01

So far, only the energy thresholds of single discrete breathers in nonlinear Hamiltonian systems have been analytically obtained. In this work, the energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium and the energy thresholds of long-lived discrete breathers which can remain after a long time relaxation are analytically estimated for nonlinear chains. These energy thresholds are size dependent. The energy thresholds of discrete breathers in thermal equilibrium are the same as the previous analytical results for single discrete breathers. The energy thresholds of long-lived discrete breathers in relaxation processes are different from the previous results for single discrete breathers but agree well with the published numerical results known to us. Because real systems are either in thermal equilibrium or in relaxation processes, the obtained results could be important for experimental detection of discrete breathers.

21 year timing of the black-widow pulsar J2051-0827

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaifullah, G.; Verbiest, J. P. W.; Freire, P. C. C.; Tauris, T. M.; Wex, N.; Osłowski, S.; Stappers, B. W.; Bassa, C. G.; Caballero, R. N.; Champion, D. J.; Cognard, I.; Desvignes, G.; Graikou, E.; Guillemot, L.; Janssen, G. H.; Jessner, A.; Jordan, C.; Karuppusamy, R.; Kramer, M.; Lazaridis, K.; Lazarus, P.; Lyne, A. G.; McKee, J. W.; Perrodin, D.; Possenti, A.; Tiburzi, C.

2016-10-01

Timing results for the black-widow pulsar J2051-0827 are presented, using a 21 year data set from four European Pulsar Timing Array telescopes and the Parkes radio telescope. This data set, which is the longest published to date for a black-widow system, allows for an improved analysis that addresses previously unknown biases. While secular variations, as identified in previous analyses, are recovered, short-term variations are detected for the first time. Concurrently, a significant decrease of ˜ 2.5 × 10- 3 cm- 3 pc in the dispersion measure associated with PSR J2051-0827 is measured for the first time and improvements are also made to estimates of the proper motion. Finally, PSR J2051-0827 is shown to have entered a relatively stable state suggesting the possibility of its eventual inclusion in pulsar timing arrays.

Laboratory spectra of C-13 ethane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kurtz, Joe; Reuter, Dennis C.; Jennings, Donald E.; Hillman, John J.

1991-01-01

The laboratory infrared spectrum of C-13 monosubstituted ethane has been obtained at high resolution (0.0025/cm) using the McMath Fourier transform spectrometer at Kitt Peak National Observatory in May 1990. A preliminary analysis of the nu12 rQ0 branch (substituted species) suggests that its intensity is 1.15 + or - 0.05 times stronger than the equivalent nu9 branch in the normal (C-12)2H6 species. This result leads to a correction of a previously published estimate for the C-12/C-13 ratio in the atmosphere of Jupiter from about 94 to about 106.

Calculation of energy-deposition distributions and microdosimetric estimation of the biological effect of a 9C beam.

PubMed

Mancusi, Davide; Sihver, Lembit; Niita, Koji; Li, Qiang; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Iwase, Hiroshi; Iwamoto, Yosuke; Matsuda, Norihiro; Sakamoto, Yukio; Nakashima, Hiroshi

2009-04-01

Among the alternative beams being recently considered for external cancer radiotherapy, (9)C has received some attention because it is expected that its biological effectiveness could be boosted by the beta-delayed emission of two alpha particles and a proton that takes place at the ion-stopping site. Experiments have been performed to characterise this exotic beam physically and models have been developed to estimate quantitatively its biological effect. Here, the particle and heavy-ion transport code system ( PHITS ) is used to calculate energy-deposition and linear energy transfer distributions for a (9)C beam in water and the results are compared with published data. Although PHITS fails to reproduce some of the features of the distributions, it suggests that the decay of (9)C contributes negligibly to the energy-deposition distributions, thus contradicting the previous interpretation of the measured data. We have also performed a microdosimetric calculation to estimate the biological effect of the decay, which was found to be negligible; previous microdosimetric Monte-Carlo calculations were found to be incorrect. An analytical argument, of geometrical nature, confirms this conclusion and gives a theoretical upper bound on the additional biological effectiveness of the decay. However, no explanation can be offered at present for the observed difference in the biological effectiveness between (9)C and (12)C; the reproducibility of this surprising result will be verified in coming experiments.

An Estimate of Avian Mortality at Communication Towers in the United States and Canada

PubMed Central

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G.; Sullivan, Lauren M.; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A.; Avery, Michael L.; Crawford, Robert L.; Manville, Albert M.; Travis, Emilie R.; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action. PMID:22558082

An estimate of avian mortality at communication towers in the United States and Canada.

PubMed

Longcore, Travis; Rich, Catherine; Mineau, Pierre; MacDonald, Beau; Bert, Daniel G; Sullivan, Lauren M; Mutrie, Erin; Gauthreaux, Sidney A; Avery, Michael L; Crawford, Robert L; Manville, Albert M; Travis, Emilie R; Drake, David

2012-01-01

Avian mortality at communication towers in the continental United States and Canada is an issue of pressing conservation concern. Previous estimates of this mortality have been based on limited data and have not included Canada. We compiled a database of communication towers in the continental United States and Canada and estimated avian mortality by tower with a regression relating avian mortality to tower height. This equation was derived from 38 tower studies for which mortality data were available and corrected for sampling effort, search efficiency, and scavenging where appropriate. Although most studies document mortality at guyed towers with steady-burning lights, we accounted for lower mortality at towers without guy wires or steady-burning lights by adjusting estimates based on published studies. The resulting estimate of mortality at towers is 6.8 million birds per year in the United States and Canada. Bootstrapped subsampling indicated that the regression was robust to the choice of studies included and a comparison of multiple regression models showed that incorporating sampling, scavenging, and search efficiency adjustments improved model fit. Estimating total avian mortality is only a first step in developing an assessment of the biological significance of mortality at communication towers for individual species or groups of species. Nevertheless, our estimate can be used to evaluate this source of mortality, develop subsequent per-species mortality estimates, and motivate policy action.

Estimating sensitivity and specificity for technology assessment based on observer studies.

PubMed

Nishikawa, Robert M; Pesce, Lorenzo L

2013-07-01

The goal of this study was to determine the accuracy and precision of using scores from a receiver operating characteristic rating scale to estimate sensitivity and specificity. We used data collected in a previous study that measured the improvements in radiologists' ability to classify mammographic microcalcification clusters as benign or malignant with and without the use of a computer-aided diagnosis scheme. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated from the rating data from a question that directly asked the radiologists their biopsy recommendations, which was used as the "truth," because it is the actual recall decision, thus it is their subjective truth. By thresholding the rating data, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for different threshold values. Because of interreader and intrareader variability, estimated sensitivity and specificity values for individual readers could be as much as 100% in error when using rating data compared to using the biopsy recommendation data. When pooled together, the estimates using thresholding the rating data were in good agreement with sensitivity and specificity estimated from the recommendation data. However, the statistical power of the rating data estimates was lower. By simply asking the observer his or her explicit recommendation (eg, biopsy or no biopsy), sensitivity and specificity can be measured directly, giving a more accurate description of empirical variability and the power of the study can be maximized. Copyright © 2013 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What is the lifetime risk of developing cancer?: the effect of adjusting for multiple primaries

PubMed Central

Sasieni, P D; Shelton, J; Ormiston-Smith, N; Thomson, C S; Silcocks, P B

2011-01-01

Background: The ‘lifetime risk' of cancer is generally estimated by combining current incidence rates with current all-cause mortality (‘current probability' method) rather than by describing the experience of a birth cohort. As individuals may get more than one type of cancer, what is generally estimated is the average (mean) number of cancers over a lifetime. This is not the same as the probability of getting cancer. Methods: We describe a method for estimating lifetime risk that corrects for the inclusion of multiple primary cancers in the incidence rates routinely published by cancer registries. The new method applies cancer incidence rates to the estimated probability of being alive without a previous cancer. The new method is illustrated using data from the Scottish Cancer Registry and is compared with ‘gold-standard' estimates that use (unpublished) data on first primaries. Results: The effect of this correction is to make the estimated ‘lifetime risk' smaller. The new estimates are extremely similar to those obtained using incidence based on first primaries. The usual ‘current probability' method considerably overestimates the lifetime risk of all cancers combined, although the correction for any single cancer site is minimal. Conclusion: Estimation of the lifetime risk of cancer should either be based on first primaries or should use the new method. PMID:21772332

Estimating the incidence, prevalence and true cost of asthma in the UK: secondary analysis of national stand-alone and linked databases in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales-a study protocol.

PubMed

Mukherjee, Mome; Gupta, Ramyani; Farr, Angela; Heaven, Martin; Stoddart, Andrew; Nwaru, Bright I; Fitzsimmons, Deborah; Chamberlain, George; Bandyopadhyay, Amrita; Fischbacher, Colin; Dibben, Christopher; Shields, Michael; Phillips, Ceri; Strachan, David; Davies, Gwyneth; McKinstry, Brian; Sheikh, Aziz

2014-11-04

Asthma is now one of the most common long-term conditions in the UK. It is therefore important to develop a comprehensive appreciation of the healthcare and societal costs in order to inform decisions on care provision and planning. We plan to build on our earlier estimates of national prevalence and costs from asthma by filling the data gaps previously identified in relation to healthcare and broadening the field of enquiry to include societal costs. This work will provide the first UK-wide estimates of the costs of asthma. In the context of asthma for the UK and its member countries (ie, England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales), we seek to: (1) produce a detailed overview of estimates of incidence, prevalence and healthcare utilisation; (2) estimate health and societal costs; (3) identify any remaining information gaps and explore the feasibility of filling these and (4) provide insights into future research that has the potential to inform changes in policy leading to the provision of more cost-effective care. Secondary analyses of data from national health surveys, primary care, prescribing, emergency care, hospital, mortality and administrative data sources will be undertaken to estimate prevalence, healthcare utilisation and outcomes from asthma. Data linkages and economic modelling will be undertaken in an attempt to populate data gaps and estimate costs. Separate prevalence and cost estimates will be calculated for each of the UK-member countries and these will then be aggregated to generate UK-wide estimates. Approvals have been obtained from the NHS Scotland Information Services Division's Privacy Advisory Committee, the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Collaboration Review System, the NHS South-East Scotland Research Ethics Service and The University of Edinburgh's Centre for Population Health Sciences Research Ethics Committee. We will produce a report for Asthma-UK, submit papers to peer-reviewed journals and construct an interactive map. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Determination of tropical deforestation rates and related carbon losses from 1990 to 2010.

PubMed

Achard, Frédéric; Beuchle, René; Mayaux, Philippe; Stibig, Hans-Jürgen; Bodart, Catherine; Brink, Andreas; Carboni, Silvia; Desclée, Baudouin; Donnay, François; Eva, Hugh D; Lupi, Andrea; Raši, Rastislav; Seliger, Roman; Simonetti, Dario

2014-08-01

We estimate changes in forest cover (deforestation and forest regrowth) in the tropics for the two last decades (1990-2000 and 2000-2010) based on a sample of 4000 units of 10 ×10 km size. Forest cover is interpreted from satellite imagery at 30 × 30 m resolution. Forest cover changes are then combined with pan-tropical biomass maps to estimate carbon losses. We show that there was a gross loss of tropical forests of 8.0 million ha yr(-1) in the 1990s and 7.6 million ha yr(-1) in the 2000s (0.49% annual rate), with no statistically significant difference. Humid forests account for 64% of the total forest cover in 2010 and 54% of the net forest loss during second study decade. Losses of forest cover and Other Wooded Land (OWL) cover result in estimates of carbon losses which are similar for 1990s and 2000s at 887 MtC yr(-1) (range: 646-1238) and 880 MtC yr(-1) (range: 602-1237) respectively, with humid regions contributing two-thirds. The estimates of forest area changes have small statistical standard errors due to large sample size. We also reduce uncertainties of previous estimates of carbon losses and removals. Our estimates of forest area change are significantly lower as compared to national survey data. We reconcile recent low estimates of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for early 2000s and show that carbon loss rates did not change between the two last decades. Carbon losses from deforestation represent circa 10% of Carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production during the last decade (2000-2010). Our estimates of annual removals of carbon from forest regrowth at 115 MtC yr(-1) (range: 61-168) and 97 MtC yr(-1) (53-141) for the 1990s and 2000s respectively are five to fifteen times lower than earlier published estimates. © The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Annual regression-based estimates of evapotranspiration for the contiguous United States based on climate, remote sensing, and stream gage data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitz, M. D.; Sanford, W. E.; Senay, G. B.; Cazenas, J.

2015-12-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key quantity in the hydrologic cycle, accounting for ~70% of precipitation across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, it is a challenge to estimate, due to difficulty in making direct measurements and gaps in our theoretical understanding. Here we present a new data-driven, ~1km2 resolution map of long-term average actual evapotranspiration rates across the CONUS. The new ET map is a function of the USGS Landsat-derived National Land Cover Database (NLCD), precipitation, temperature, and daily average temperature range (from the PRISM climate dataset), and is calibrated to long-term water balance data from 679 watersheds. It is unique from previously presented ET maps in that (1) it was co-developed with estimates of runoff and recharge; (2) the regression equation was chosen from among many tested, previously published and newly proposed functional forms for its optimal description of long-term water balance ET data; (3) it has values over open-water areas that are derived from separate mass-transfer and humidity equations; and (4) the data include additional precipitation representing amounts converted from 2005 USGS water-use census irrigation data. The regression equation is calibrated using data from 2000-2013, but can also be applied to individual years with their corresponding input datasets. Comparisons among this new map, the more detailed remote-sensing-based estimates of MOD16 and SSEBop, and AmeriFlux ET tower measurements shows encouraging consistency, and indicates that the empirical ET estimate approach presented here produces closer agreement with independent flux tower data for annual average actual ET than other more complex remote sensing approaches.

Methodologies on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and determining the net energy contents of feed ingredients in swine: a review of recent work.

PubMed

Li, Zhongchao; Liu, Hu; Li, Yakui; Lv, Zhiqian; Liu, Ling; Lai, Changhua; Wang, Junjun; Wang, Fenglai; Li, Defa; Zhang, Shuai

2018-01-01

In the past two decades, a considerable amount of research has focused on the determination of the digestible (DE) and metabolizable energy (ME) contents of feed ingredients fed to swine. Compared with the DE and ME systems, the net energy (NE) system is assumed to be the most accurate estimate of the energy actually available to the animal. However, published data pertaining to the measured NE content of ingredients fed to growing pigs are limited. Therefore, the Feed Data Group at the Ministry of Agricultural Feed Industry Centre (MAFIC) located at China Agricultural University has evaluated the NE content of many ingredients using indirect calorimetry. The present review summarizes the NE research works conducted at MAFIC and compares these results with those from other research groups on methodological aspect. These research projects mainly focus on estimating the energy requirements for maintenance and its impact on the determination, prediction, and validation of the NE content of several ingredients fed to swine. The estimation of maintenance energy is affected by methodology, growth stage, and previous feeding level. The fasting heat production method and the curvilinear regression method were used in MAFIC to estimate the NE requirement for maintenance. The NE contents of different feedstuffs were determined using indirect calorimetry through standard experimental procedure in MAFIC. Previously generated NE equations can also be used to predict NE in situations where calorimeters are not available. Although popular, the caloric efficiency is not a generally accepted method to validate the energy content of individual feedstuffs. In the future, more accurate and dynamic NE prediction equations aiming at specific ingredients should be established, and more practical validation approaches need to be developed.

Forensic proteomics for the evaluation of the post-mortem decay in bones.

PubMed

Procopio, Noemi; Williams, Anna; Chamberlain, Andrew T; Buckley, Michael

2018-04-15

Current methods for evaluation the of post-mortem interval (PMI) of skeletal remains suffer from poor accuracy due to the great number of variables that affect the diagenetic process and to the lack of specific guidelines to address this issue. During decomposition, proteins can undergo cumulative decay over the time, resulting in a decrease in the range and abundance of proteins present (i.e., the proteome) in different tissues as well as in an increase of post-translational modifications occurring in these proteins. In this study, we investigate the applicability of bone proteomic analyses to simulated forensic contexts, looking for specific biomarkers that may help the estimation of PMI, as well as evaluate a previously discovered marker for the estimation of biological age. We noticed a reduction of particular plasma and muscle proteins with increasing PMIs, as well as an increased deamidation of biglycan, a protein with a role in modulating bone growth and mineralization. We also corroborated our previous results regarding the use of fetuin-A as a potential biomarker for the estimation of age-at-death, demonstrating the applicability and the great potential that proteomics may have towards forensic sciences. The estimation of the post-mortem interval has a key role in forensic investigations, however nowadays it still suffers from poor reliability, especially when body tissues are heavily decomposed. Here we propose for the first time the application of bone proteomics to the estimation of the time elapsed since death and found several new potential biomarkers to address this, demonstrating the applicability of proteomic analyses to forensic sciences. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating weather spectrum parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, W. T.

1989-01-01

The effects of clutter-rejection filtering on estimating the weather parameters from pulse Doppler radar measurement data are investigated. The pulse pair method of estimating the spectrum mean and spectrum width of the weather is emphasized. The loss of sensitivity, a measure of the signal power lost due to filtering, is also considered. A flexible software tool developed to investigate these effects is described. It allows for simulated weather radar data, in which the user specifies an underlying truncated Gaussian spectrum, as well as for externally generated data which may be real or simulated. The filter may be implemented in either the time or the frequency domain. The software tool is validated by comparing unfiltered spectrum mean and width estimates to their true values, and by reproducing previously published results. The effects on the weather parameter estimates using simulated weather-only data are evaluated for five filters: an ideal filter, two infinite impulse response filters, and two finite impulse response filters. Results considering external data, consisting of weather and clutter data, are evaluated on a range cell by range cell basis. Finally, it is shown theoretically and by computer simulation that a linear phase response is not required for a clutter rejection filter preceeding pulse-pair parameter estimation.

Using paired visual and passive acoustic surveys to estimate passive acoustic detection parameters for harbor porpoise abundance estimates.

PubMed

Jacobson, Eiren K; Forney, Karin A; Barlow, Jay

2017-01-01

Passive acoustic monitoring is a promising approach for monitoring long-term trends in harbor porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) abundance. Before passive acoustic monitoring can be implemented to estimate harbor porpoise abundance, information about the detectability of harbor porpoise is needed to convert recorded numbers of echolocation clicks to harbor porpoise densities. In the present study, paired data from a grid of nine passive acoustic click detectors (C-PODs, Chelonia Ltd., United Kingdom) and three days of simultaneous aerial line-transect visual surveys were collected over a 370 km 2 study area. The focus of the study was estimating the effective detection area of the passive acoustic sensors, which was defined as the product of the sound production rate of individual animals and the area within which those sounds are detected by the passive acoustic sensors. Visually estimated porpoise densities were used as informative priors in a Bayesian model to solve for the effective detection area for individual harbor porpoises. This model-based approach resulted in a posterior distribution of the effective detection area of individual harbor porpoises consistent with previously published values. This technique is a viable alternative for estimating the effective detection area of passive acoustic sensors when other experimental approaches are not feasible.

Validation of spatiodemographic estimates produced through data fusion of small area census records and household microdata

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, Amy N.; Nagle, Nicholas N.

Techniques such as Iterative Proportional Fitting have been previously suggested as a means to generate new data with the demographic granularity of individual surveys and the spatial granularity of small area tabulations of censuses and surveys. This article explores internal and external validation approaches for synthetic, small area, household- and individual-level microdata using a case study for Bangladesh. Using data from the Bangladesh Census 2011 and the Demographic and Health Survey, we produce estimates of infant mortality rate and other household attributes for small areas using a variation of an iterative proportional fitting method called P-MEDM. We conduct an internalmore » validation to determine: whether the model accurately recreates the spatial variation of the input data, how each of the variables performed overall, and how the estimates compare to the published population totals. We conduct an external validation by comparing the estimates with indicators from the 2009 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) for Bangladesh to benchmark how well the estimates compared to a known dataset which was not used in the original model. The results indicate that the estimation process is viable for regions that are better represented in the microdata sample, but also revealed the possibility of strong overfitting in sparsely sampled sub-populations.« less

Validation of spatiodemographic estimates produced through data fusion of small area census records and household microdata

DOE PAGES

Rose, Amy N.; Nagle, Nicholas N.

2016-08-01

Techniques such as Iterative Proportional Fitting have been previously suggested as a means to generate new data with the demographic granularity of individual surveys and the spatial granularity of small area tabulations of censuses and surveys. This article explores internal and external validation approaches for synthetic, small area, household- and individual-level microdata using a case study for Bangladesh. Using data from the Bangladesh Census 2011 and the Demographic and Health Survey, we produce estimates of infant mortality rate and other household attributes for small areas using a variation of an iterative proportional fitting method called P-MEDM. We conduct an internalmore » validation to determine: whether the model accurately recreates the spatial variation of the input data, how each of the variables performed overall, and how the estimates compare to the published population totals. We conduct an external validation by comparing the estimates with indicators from the 2009 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) for Bangladesh to benchmark how well the estimates compared to a known dataset which was not used in the original model. The results indicate that the estimation process is viable for regions that are better represented in the microdata sample, but also revealed the possibility of strong overfitting in sparsely sampled sub-populations.« less

Kinetic modelling of a diesel-polluted clayey soil bioremediation process.

PubMed

Fernández, Engracia Lacasa; Merlo, Elena Moliterni; Mayor, Lourdes Rodríguez; Camacho, José Villaseñor

2016-07-01

A mathematical model is proposed to describe a diesel-polluted clayey soil bioremediation process. The reaction system under study was considered a completely mixed closed batch reactor, which initially contacted a soil matrix polluted with diesel hydrocarbons, an aqueous liquid-specific culture medium and a microbial inoculation. The model coupled the mass transfer phenomena and the distribution of hydrocarbons among four phases (solid, S; water, A; non-aqueous liquid, NAPL; and air, V) with Monod kinetics. In the first step, the model simulating abiotic conditions was used to estimate only the mass transfer coefficients. In the second step, the model including both mass transfer and biodegradation phenomena was used to estimate the biological kinetic and stoichiometric parameters. In both situations, the model predictions were validated with experimental data that corresponded to previous research by the same authors. A correct fit between the model predictions and the experimental data was observed because the modelling curves captured the major trends for the diesel distribution in each phase. The model parameters were compared to different previously reported values found in the literature. Pearson correlation coefficients were used to show the reproducibility level of the model. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Shipborne LF-VLF oceanic lightning observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoghzoghy, F. G.; Cohen, M. B.; Said, R. K.; Lehtinen, N. G.; Inan, U. S.

2015-10-01

Approximately 90% of natural lightning occurs over land, but recent observations, using Global Lightning Detection (GLD360) geolocation peak current estimates and satellite optical data, suggested that cloud-to-ground flashes are on average stronger over the ocean. We present initial statistics from a novel experiment using a Low Frequency (LF) magnetic field receiver system installed aboard the National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) Ronald W. Brown research vessel that allowed the detection of impulsive radio emissions from deep-oceanic discharges at short distances. Thousands of LF waveforms were recorded, facilitating the comparison of oceanic waveforms to their land counterparts. A computationally efficient electromagnetic radiation model that accounts for propagation over lossy and curved ground is constructed and compared with previously published models. We include the effects of Earth curvature on LF ground wave propagation and quantify the effects of channel-base current risetime, channel-base current falltime, and return stroke speed on the radiated LF waveforms observed at a given distance. We compare simulation results to data and conclude that previously reported larger GLD360 peak current estimates over the ocean are unlikely to fully result from differences in channel-base current risetime, falltime, or return stroke speed between ocean and land flashes.

Injury tolerance and moment response of the knee joint to combined valgus bending and shear loading.

PubMed

Bose, Dipan; Bhalla, Kavi S; Untaroiu, Costin D; Ivarsson, B Johan; Crandall, Jeff R; Hurwitz, Shepard

2008-06-01

Valgus bending and shearing of the knee have been identified as primary mechanisms of injuries in a lateral loading environment applicable to pedestrian-car collisions. Previous studies have reported on the structural response of the knee joint to pure valgus bending and lateral shearing, as well as the estimated injury thresholds for the knee bending angle and shear displacement based on experimental tests. However, epidemiological studies indicate that most knee injuries are due to the combined effects of bending and shear loading. Therefore, characterization of knee stiffness for combined loading and the associated injury tolerances is necessary for developing vehicle countermeasures to mitigate pedestrian injuries. Isolated knee joint specimens (n=40) from postmortem human subjects were tested in valgus bending at a loading rate representative of a pedestrian-car impact. The effect of lateral shear force combined with the bending moment on the stiffness response and the injury tolerances of the knee was concurrently evaluated. In addition to the knee moment-angle response, the bending angle and shear displacement corresponding to the first instance of primary ligament failure were determined in each test. The failure displacements were subsequently used to estimate an injury threshold function based on a simplified analytical model of the knee. The validity of the determined injury threshold function was subsequently verified using a finite element model. Post-test necropsy of the knees indicated medial collateral ligament injury consistent with the clinical injuries observed in pedestrian victims. The moment-angle response in valgus bending was determined at quasistatic and dynamic loading rates and compared to previously published test data. The peak bending moment values scaled to an average adult male showed no significant change with variation in the superimposed shear load. An injury threshold function for the knee in terms of bending angle and shear displacement was determined by performing regression analysis on the experimental data. The threshold values of the bending angle (16.2 deg) and shear displacement (25.2 mm) estimated from the injury threshold function were in agreement with previously published knee injury threshold data. The continuous knee injury function expressed in terms of bending angle and shear displacement enabled injury prediction for combined loading conditions such as those observed in pedestrian-car collisions.

Constraining proposed combinations of ice history and earth rheology using VLBI determined baseline length rates in North America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitrovica, J. X.; Davis, J. L.; Shapiro, I. I.

1993-01-01

We predict the present-day rates of change of the lengths of 19 North American baselines due to the glacial isostatic adjustment process. Contrary to previously published research, we find that the three-dimensional motion of each of the sites defining a baseline, rather than only the radial motions of these sites, needs to be considered to obtain an accurate estimate of the rate of change of the baseline length. Predictions are generated using a suite of Earth models and late Pleistocene ice histories; these include specific combinations of the two which have been proposed in the literature as satisfying a variety of rebound related geophysical observations from the North American region. A number of these published models are shown to predict rates which differ significantly from the Very Long Base Interferometry (VLBI) observations.

Heart Rate and Blood Pressure Centile Curves and Distributions by Age of Hospitalized Critically Ill Children.

PubMed

Eytan, Danny; Goodwin, Andrew J; Greer, Robert; Guerguerian, Anne-Marie; Laussen, Peter C

2017-01-01

Heart rate (HR) and blood pressure (BP) form the basis for monitoring the physiological state of patients. Although norms have been published for healthy and hospitalized children, little is known about their distributions in critically ill children. The objective of this study was to report the distributions of these basic physiological variables in hospitalized critically ill children. Continuous data from bedside monitors were collected and stored at 5-s intervals from 3,677 subjects aged 0-18 years admitted over a period of 30 months to the pediatric and cardiac intensive care units at a large quaternary children's hospital. Approximately 1.13 billion values served to estimate age-specific distributions for these two basic physiological variables: HR and intra-arterial BP. Centile curves were derived from the sample distributions and compared to common reference ranges. Properties such as kurtosis and skewness of these distributions are described. In comparison to previously published reference ranges, we show that children in these settings exhibit markedly higher HRs than their healthy counterparts or children hospitalized on in-patient wards. We also compared commonly used published estimates of hypotension in children (e.g., the PALS guidelines) to the values we derived from critically ill children. This is a first study reporting the distributions of basic physiological variables in children in the pediatric intensive care settings, and the percentiles derived may serve as useful references for bedside clinicians and clinical trials.

Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modelling study.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Wessells, K Ryan; Kloog, Itai; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel

2015-10-01

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in important food crops. Zinc deficiency is currently responsible for large burdens of disease globally, and the populations who are at highest risk of zinc deficiency also receive most of their dietary zinc from crops. By modelling dietary intake of bioavailable zinc for the populations of 188 countries under both an ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 scenario, we sought to estimate the effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on the global risk of zinc deficiency. We estimated per capita per day bioavailable intake of zinc for the populations of 188 countries at ambient CO2 concentrations (375-384 ppm) using food balance sheet data for 2003-07 from the Food and Agriculture Organization. We then used previously published data from free air CO2 enrichment and open-top chamber experiments to model zinc intake at elevated CO2 concentrations (550 ppm, which is the concentration expected by 2050). Estimates developed by the International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group were used for country-specific theoretical mean daily per-capita physiological requirements for zinc. Finally, we used these data on zinc bioavailability and population-weighted estimated average zinc requirements to estimate the risk of inadequate zinc intake among the populations of the different nations under the two scenarios (ambient and elevated CO2). The difference between the population at risk at elevated and ambient CO2 concentrations (ie, population at new risk of zinc deficiency) was our measure of impact. The total number of people estimated to be placed at new risk of zinc deficiency by 2050 was 138 million (95% CI 120-156). The people likely to be most affected live in Africa and South Asia, with nearly 48 million (32-63) residing in India alone. Global maps of increased risk show significant heterogeneity. Our results indicate that one heretofore unquantified human health effect associated with anthropogenic CO2 emissions will be a significant increase in the human population at risk of zinc deficiency. Our country-specific findings can be used to help guide interventions aimed at reducing this vulnerability. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Winslow Foundation. Copyright © 2015 Myers et al. Open access article published under the terms of CC BY-NC-ND. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Retrospective analysis of natural products provides insights for future discovery trends.

PubMed

Pye, Cameron R; Bertin, Matthew J; Lokey, R Scott; Gerwick, William H; Linington, Roger G

2017-05-30

Understanding of the capacity of the natural world to produce secondary metabolites is important to a broad range of fields, including drug discovery, ecology, biosynthesis, and chemical biology, among others. Both the absolute number and the rate of discovery of natural products have increased significantly in recent years. However, there is a perception and concern that the fundamental novelty of these discoveries is decreasing relative to previously known natural products. This study presents a quantitative examination of the field from the perspective of both number of compounds and compound novelty using a dataset of all published microbial and marine-derived natural products. This analysis aimed to explore a number of key questions, such as how the rate of discovery of new natural products has changed over the past decades, how the average natural product structural novelty has changed as a function of time, whether exploring novel taxonomic space affords an advantage in terms of novel compound discovery, and whether it is possible to estimate how close we are to having described all of the chemical space covered by natural products. Our analyses demonstrate that most natural products being published today bear structural similarity to previously published compounds, and that the range of scaffolds readily accessible from nature is limited. However, the analysis also shows that the field continues to discover appreciable numbers of natural products with no structural precedent. Together, these results suggest that the development of innovative discovery methods will continue to yield compounds with unique structural and biological properties.

Sensitivity and specificity of the AdenoPlus point-of-care system in detecting adenovirus in conjunctivitis patients at an ophthalmic emergency department: a diagnostic accuracy study.

PubMed

Kam, K Y Ronald; Ong, Hon Shing; Bunce, Catey; Ogunbowale, Lola; Verma, Seema

2015-09-01

To estimate the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity) of the AdenoPlus point-of-care adenoviral test compared to PCR in an ophthalmic accident and emergency service. These findings were compared with those of a previous study. This was a prospective diagnostic accuracy study on 121 patients presenting to an emergency eye unit with a clinical picture of acute adenoviral conjunctivitis. AdenoPlus testing was carried out on one eye of each patient and a PCR analysis was also performed on a swab taken from the same eye. AdenoPlus and PCR results were interpreted by masked personnel. Sensitivity and specificity for the AdenoPlus test were calculated using PCR results as the reference standard. 121 patients were enrolled and 109 met the inclusion criteria. 43 patients (39.4%) tested positive for adenovirus by PCR analysis. The sensitivity of the AdenoPlus swab in detecting adenovirus was 39.5% (17/43, 95% CI 26% to 54%) and specificity was 95.5% (63/66, 95% CI 87% to 98%) compared to PCR. The AdenoPlus test has a high specificity for diagnosing adenoviral conjunctivitis, but in this clinical setting, we could not reproduce the high sensitivity that has been previously published. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Analysis of stimulant drugs in the wastewater of five Nordic capitals.

PubMed

Löve, Arndís Sue Ching; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm J; Kankaanpää, Aino; Gunnar, Teemu; Dam, Maria; Ólafsdóttir, Kristín; Thomas, Kevin V

2018-06-15

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an efficient way to assess illicit drug use, complementing currently used methods retrieved from different data sources. The aim of this study is to compare stimulant drug use in five Nordic capital cities that include for the first time wastewater samples from Torshavn in the Faroe Islands. Currently there are no published reports that compare stimulant drug use in these Nordic capitals. All wastewater samples were analyzed using solid phase extraction and ultra-high performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. The results were compared with data published by the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction based on illicit drugs in wastewater from over 50 European cities. Confirming previous reports, the results showed high amphetamine loads compared with other European countries. Very little apparent abuse of stimulant drugs was detected in Torshavn. Methamphetamine loads were the highest from Helsinki of the Nordic countries, indicating substantial fluctuations in the availability of the drug compared with previous studies. Methamphetamine loads from Oslo confirmed that the use continues to be high. Estimated cocaine use was found to be in the lower range compared with other cities in the southern and western part of Europe. Ecstasy and cocaine showed clear variations between weekdays and weekends, indicating recreational use. This study further demonstrates geographical trends in the stimulant drug market in five Nordic capitals, which enables a better comparison with other areas of the continent. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Berry, Robert J.; Tilford, J. Mick; Kucik, James E.; Waitzman, Norman J.

2016-01-01

Introduction Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997–1998. Methods Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995–1996 relative to 1999–2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. Results The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. Conclusions The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. PMID:26790341

A Variable-Instar Climate-Driven Individual Beetle-Based Phenology Model for the Invasive Asian Longhorned Beetle (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae).

PubMed

Trotter, R Talbot; Keena, Melody A

2016-12-01

Efforts to manage and eradicate invasive species can benefit from an improved understanding of the physiology, biology, and behavior of the target species, and ongoing efforts to eradicate the Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) highlight the roles this information may play. Here, we present a climate-driven phenology model for A. glabripennis that provides simulated life-tables for populations of individual beetles under variable climatic conditions that takes into account the variable number of instars beetles may undergo as larvae. Phenology parameters in the model are based on a synthesis of published data and studies of A. glabripennis, and the model output was evaluated using a laboratory-reared population maintained under varying temperatures mimicking those typical of Central Park in New York City. The model was stable under variations in population size, simulation length, and the Julian dates used to initiate individual beetles within the population. Comparison of model results with previously published field-based phenology studies in native and invasive populations indicates both this new phenology model, and the previously published heating-degree-day model show good agreement in the prediction of the beginning of the flight season for adults. However, the phenology model described here avoids underpredicting the cumulative emergence of adults through the season, in addition to providing tables of life stages and estimations of voltinism for local populations. This information can play a key role in evaluating risk by predicting the potential for population growth, and may facilitate the optimization of management and eradication efforts. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

The number of privately treated tuberculosis cases in India: an estimation from drug sales data.

PubMed

Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Batra, Deepak; Khaparde, Sunil; Vualnam, Thongsuanmung; Maheshwari, Nilesh; Sharma, Lokesh; Nair, Sreenivas A; Dewan, Puneet

2016-11-01

Understanding the amount of tuberculosis managed by the private sector in India is crucial to understanding the true burden of the disease in the country, and thus globally. In the absence of quality surveillance data on privately treated patients, commercial drug sales data offer an empirical foundation for disease burden estimation. We used a large, nationally representative commercial dataset on sales of 189 anti-tuberculosis products available in India to calculate the amount of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2013-14. We corrected estimates using validation studies that audited prescriptions against tuberculosis diagnosis, and estimated uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation. To address implications for numbers of patients with tuberculosis, we explored varying assumptions for average duration of tuberculosis treatment and accuracy of private diagnosis. There were 17·793 million patient-months (95% credible interval 16·709 million to 19·841 million) of anti-tuberculosis treatment in the private sector in 2014, twice as many as the public sector. If 40-60% of private-sector tuberculosis diagnoses are correct, and if private-sector tuberculosis treatment lasts on average 2-6 months, this implies that 1·19-5·34 million tuberculosis cases were treated in the private sector in 2014 alone. The midpoint of these ranges yields an estimate of 2·2 million cases, two to three times higher than currently assumed. India's private sector is treating an enormous number of patients for tuberculosis, appreciably higher than has been previously recognised. Accordingly, there is a re-doubled need to address this burden and to strengthen surveillance. Tuberculosis burden estimates in India and worldwide require revision. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Air pollution as a risk factor in health impact assessments of a travel mode shift towards cycling

PubMed Central

Raza, Wasif; Forsberg, Bertil; Johansson, Christer; Sommar, Johan Nilsson

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Promotion of active commuting provides substantial health and environmental benefits by influencing air pollution, physical activity, accidents, and noise. However, studies evaluating intervention and policies on a mode shift from motorized transport to cycling have estimated health impacts with varying validity and precision. Objective: To review and discuss the estimation of air pollution exposure and its impacts in health impact assessment studies of a shift in transport from cars to bicycles in order to guide future assessments. Methods: A systematic database search of PubMed was done primarily for articles published from January 2000 to May 2016 according to PRISMA guidelines. Results: We identified 18 studies of health impact assessment of change in transport mode. Most studies investigated future hypothetical scenarios of increased cycling. The impact on the general population was estimated using a comparative risk assessment approach in the majority of these studies, whereas some used previously published cost estimates. Air pollution exposure during cycling was estimated based on the ventilation rate, the pollutant concentration, and the trip duration. Most studies employed exposure-response functions from studies comparing background levels of fine particles between cities to estimate the health impacts of local traffic emissions. The effect of air pollution associated with increased cycling contributed small health benefits for the general population, and also only slightly increased risks associated with fine particle exposure among those who shifted to cycling. However, studies calculating health impacts based on exposure-response functions for ozone, black carbon or nitrogen oxides found larger effects attributed to changes in air pollution exposure. Conclusion: A large discrepancy between studies was observed due to different health impact assessment approaches, different assumptions for calculation of inhaled dose and different selection of dose-response functions. This kind of assessments would improve from more holistic approaches using more specific exposure-response functions. PMID:29400262

Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach.

PubMed

Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

2015-01-05

During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers' sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers' income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Short-run price elasticity is estimated at -0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Expanding the 2011 Prague, OK Event Catalog: Detections, Relocations, and Stress Drop Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clerc, F.; Cochran, E. S.; Dougherty, S. L.; Keranen, K. M.; Harrington, R. M.

2016-12-01

The Mw 5.6 earthquake occurring on 6 Nov. 2011, near Prague, OK, is thought to have been triggered by a Mw 4.8 foreshock, which was likely induced by fluid injection into local wastewater disposal wells [Keranen et al., 2013; Sumy et al., 2014]. Previous stress drop estimates for the sequence have suggested values lower than those for most Central and Eastern U.S. tectonic events of similar magnitudes [Hough, 2014; Sun & Hartzell, 2014; Sumy & Neighbors et al., 2016]. Better stress drop estimates allow more realistic assessment of seismic hazard and more effective regulation of wastewater injection. More reliable estimates of source properties may help to differentiate induced events from natural ones. Using data from local and regional networks, we perform event detections, relocations, and stress drop calculations of the Prague aftershock sequence. We use the Match & Locate method, a variation on the matched-filter method which detects events of lower magnitudes by stacking cross-correlograms from different stations [Zhang & Wen, 2013; 2015], in order to create a more complete catalog from 6 Nov to 31 Dec 2011. We then relocate the detected events using the HypoDD double-difference algorithm. Using our enhanced catalog and relocations, we examine the seismicity distribution for evidence of migration and investigate implications for triggering mechanisms. To account for path and site effects, we calculate stress drops using the Empirical Green's Function (EGF) spectral ratio method, beginning with 2730 previously relocated events. We determine whether there is a correlation between the stress drop magnitudes and the spatial and temporal distribution of events, including depth, position relative to existing faults, and proximity to injection wells. Finally, we consider the range of stress drop values and scaling with respect to event magnitudes within the context of previously published work for the Prague sequence as well as other induced and natural sequences.

Vegetation, plant biomass, and net primary productivity patterns in the Canadian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gould, W. A.; Raynolds, M.; Walker, D. A.

2003-01-01

We have developed maps of dominant vegetation types, plant functional types, percent vegetation cover, aboveground plant biomass, and above and belowground annual net primary productivity for Canada north of the northern limit of trees. The area mapped covers 2.5 million km2 including glaciers. Ice-free land covers 2.3 million km2 and represents 42% of all ice-free land in the Circumpolar Arctic. The maps combine information on climate, soils, geology, hydrology, remotely sensed vegetation classifications, previous vegetation studies, and regional expertise to define polygons drawn using photo-interpretation of a 1:4,000,000 scale advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) color infrared image basemap. Polygons are linked to vegetation description, associated properties, and descriptive literature through a series of lookup tables in a graphic information systems (GIS) database developed as a component of the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (CAVM) project. Polygons are classified into 20 landcover types including 17 vegetation types. Half of the region is sparsely vegetated (<50% vegetation cover), primarily in the High Arctic (bioclimatic subzones A-C). Whereas most (86%) of the estimated aboveground plant biomass (1.5 × 1015 g) and 87% of the estimated above and belowground annual net primary productivity (2.28 × 1014 g yr-1) are concentrated in the Low Arctic (subzones D and E). The maps present more explicit spatial patterns of vegetation and ecosystem attributes than have been previously available, the GIS database is useful in summarizing ecosystem properties and can be easily updated and integrated into circumpolar mapping efforts, and the derived estimates fall within the range of current published estimates.

Estimation of maximal oxygen uptake by bioelectrical impedance analysis.

PubMed

Stahn, Alexander; Terblanche, Elmarie; Grunert, Sven; Strobel, Günther

2006-02-01

Previous non-exercise models for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake VO(2max) have failed to accurately discriminate cardiorespiratory fitness within large cohorts. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the feasibility of a completely indirect method for predicting VO(2max) that was based on bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) in 66 young, healthy fit men and women. Multiple, stepwise regression analysis was used to determine the usefulness of BIA and additional covariates to estimate VO(2max) (ml min(-1)). BIA was highly correlated to VO(2max) (r = 0.914; P < 0.001) and entered the regression equation first. The inclusion of gender and a physical activity rating further improved the model which accounted for 88% of the variance in VO(2max) and resulted in a relative standard error of the estimate (SEE) of 7.2%. Substantial agreement between the methods was confirmed by the fact that nearly all the differences were within +/-2 SD. Furthermore, in contrast to previously published non-exercise models, no trend of a reduction in prediction accuracy with increasing VO(2max) values was apparent. It was concluded that a non-exercise model based on BIA might be a rapid and useful technique to estimate VO(2max), when a direct test does not seem feasible. However, though the present results are useful to determine the viability of the method, further refinement of the BIA approach and its validation in a large, diverse population is needed before it can be applied to the clinical and epidemiological settings.

A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

PubMed

Dai, Junyi; Gunn, Rachel L; Gerst, Kyle R; Busemeyer, Jerome R; Finn, Peter R

2016-10-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach. First, the deterministic perspective on delay discounting underlying the indifference point method might be inappropriate. Second, the estimation procedure using the R2 measure often leads to poor model fit. Third, when parameters are estimated using indifference points only, much of the information collected in a delay discounting decision task is wasted. To overcome these problems, this article proposes a random utility model of delay discounting. The proposed model has 2 parameters, 1 for delay discounting and 1 for choice variability. It was fit to choice data obtained from a recently published data set using both maximum-likelihood and Bayesian parameter estimation. As in previous studies, the delay discounting parameter was significantly associated with both externalizing problems and working memory capacity. Furthermore, choice variability was also found to be significantly associated with both variables. This finding suggests that randomness in decisions may be a mechanism by which externalizing problems and low working memory capacity are associated with poor decision making. The random utility model thus has the advantage of disclosing the role of choice variability, which had been masked by the traditional deterministic model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Inferring heat recirculation and albedo for exoplanetary atmospheres: Comparing optical phase curves and secondary eclipse data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Paris, P.; Gratier, P.; Bordé, P.; Selsis, F.

2016-03-01

Context. Basic atmospheric properties, such as albedo and heat redistribution between day- and nightsides, have been inferred for a number of planets using observations of secondary eclipses and thermal phase curves. Optical phase curves have not yet been used to constrain these atmospheric properties consistently. Aims: We model previously published phase curves of CoRoT-1b, TrES-2b, and HAT-P-7b, and infer albedos and recirculation efficiencies. These are then compared to previous estimates based on secondary eclipse data. Methods: We use a physically consistent model to construct optical phase curves. This model takes Lambertian reflection, thermal emission, ellipsoidal variations, and Doppler boosting, into account. Results: CoRoT-1b shows a non-negligible scattering albedo (0.11 < AS < 0.3 at 95% confidence) as well as small day-night temperature contrasts, which are indicative of moderate to high re-distribution of energy between dayside and nightside. These values are contrary to previous secondary eclipse and phase curve analyses. In the case of HAT-P-7b, model results suggest a relatively high scattering albedo (AS ≈ 0.3). This confirms previous phase curve analysis; however, it is in slight contradiction to values inferred from secondary eclipse data. For TrES-2b, both approaches yield very similar estimates of albedo and heat recirculation. Discrepancies between recirculation and albedo values as inferred from secondary eclipse and optical phase curve analyses might be interpreted as a hint that optical and IR observations probe different atmospheric layers, hence temperatures.

Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2016-12-20

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and increased in 10 tributaries; and fluxes of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 4 and increased in 10 tributaries (where the number of increasing and decreasing trends does not add up to 18, the remainder of tributaries had no trends). Concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen decreased in 10 and increased in 4 tributaries and of chloride decreased in 2 and increased in 15 tributaries. Concentrations of total suspended solids decreased in 4 and increased in 8 tributaries, and fluxes of total suspended solids decreased in 3 and increased in 11 tributaries. Although time intervals for the percent changes from this report are not completely synchronous with those from previous studies, the numbers of and specific tributaries with overall negative percent changes in concentration and flux are similar. Concentration estimates of total phosphorus in the Winooski River were used to trace whether changes in trends between a previous study and the current study were due generally to differences in model specifications or differences from 4 years of additional data. The Winooski River analysis illustrates several things: that keeping all model specifications equal, concentration estimates increased from 2010 to 2014; the effects of a smoothing algorithm used in the current study that was not available previously; that narrowing model half-window widths increased year-to-year variations; and that the change from an annual to a 9-month basis by omitting winter estimates changed a few individual points but not the overall shape of the flow-normalized curve. Similar tests for other tributaries showed that the primary effect of differences in model specifications between the previous and current studies was perhaps to increase scatter over time but that changes in trends generally were the result of 4 years of additional data rather than artifacts of model differences.

An updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nikitina, D.L.; Pizzuto, J.E.; Schwimmer, R.A.; Ramsey, K.W.

2000-01-01

We present an updated Holocene sea-level curve for the Delaware coast based on new calibrations of 16 previously published radiocarbon dates (Kraft, 1976; Belknap and Kraft, 1977) and 22 new radiocarbon dates of basal peat deposits. A review of published and unpublished 137Cs and 210Pb analyses, and tide gauge data provide the basis for evaluating shorter-term (102 yr) sea-level trends. Paleosea-level elevations for the new basal peat samples were determined from the present vertical zonation of marsh plants relative to mean high water along the Delaware coast and the composition of plant fossils and foraminifera. Current trends in tidal range along the Delaware coast were used to reduce elevations from different locations to a common vertical datum of mean high water at Breakwater Harbor, Delaware. The updated curve is similar to Belknap and Kraft's [J. Sediment. Petrol., 47 (1977) 610-629] original sea-level curve from 12,000 to about 2000 yr BP. The updated curve documents a rate of sea-level rise of 0.9 mm/yr from 1250 yr BP to present (based on 11 dates), in good agreement with other recent sea-level curves from the northern and central U.S. Atlantic coast, while the previous curve documents rates of about 1.3 mm/yr (based on 4 dates). The precision of both estimates, however, is very low, so the significance of these differences is uncertain. A review of 210Pb and 137Cs analyses from salt marshes of Delaware indicates average marsh accretion rates of 3 mm/yr for the last 100 yr, in good agreement with shorter-term estimates of sea-level rise from tide gauge records. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis

PubMed Central

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M.; Nagler, James J.; Schultz, Irvin R.

2016-01-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales. PMID:27096735

A Computational Model of the Rainbow Trout Hypothalamus-Pituitary-Ovary-Liver Axis.

PubMed

Gillies, Kendall; Krone, Stephen M; Nagler, James J; Schultz, Irvin R

2016-04-01

Reproduction in fishes and other vertebrates represents the timely coordination of many endocrine factors that culminate in the production of mature, viable gametes. In recent years there has been rapid growth in understanding fish reproductive biology, which has been motivated in part by recognition of the potential effects that climate change, habitat destruction and contaminant exposure can have on natural and cultured fish populations. New approaches to understanding the impacts of these stressors are being developed that require a systems biology approach with more biologically accurate and detailed mathematical models. We have developed a multi-scale mathematical model of the female rainbow trout hypothalamus-pituitary-ovary-liver axis to use as a tool to help understand the functioning of the system and for extrapolation of laboratory findings of stressor impacts on specific components of the axis. The model describes the essential endocrine components of the female rainbow trout reproductive axis. The model also describes the stage specific growth of maturing oocytes within the ovary and permits the presence of sub-populations of oocytes at different stages of development. Model formulation and parametrization was largely based on previously published in vivo and in vitro data in rainbow trout and new data on the synthesis of gonadotropins in the pituitary. Model predictions were validated against several previously published data sets for annual changes in gonadotropins and estradiol in rainbow trout. Estimates of select model parameters can be obtained from in vitro assays using either quantitative (direct estimation of rate constants) or qualitative (relative change from control values) approaches. This is an important aspect of mathematical models as in vitro, cell-based assays are expected to provide the bulk of experimental data for future risk assessments and will require quantitative physiological models to extrapolate across biological scales.

An Open-Access Modeled Passenger Flow Matrix for the Global Air Network in 2010

PubMed Central

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J.; Fik, Timothy J.; Tatem, Andrew J.

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data. PMID:23691194

mtDNA and the Origin of the Icelanders: Deciphering Signals of Recent Population History

PubMed Central

Helgason, Agnar; Sigurðardóttir, Sigrún; Gulcher, Jeffrey R.; Ward, Ryk; Stefánsson, Kári

2000-01-01

Previous attempts to investigate the origin of the Icelanders have provided estimates of ancestry ranging from a 98% British Isles contribution to an 86% Scandinavian contribution. We generated mitochondrial sequence data for 401 Icelandic individuals and compared these data with >2,500 other European sequences from published sources, to determine the probable origins of women who contributed to Iceland’s settlement. Although the mean number of base-pair differences is high in the Icelandic sequences and they are widely distributed in the overall European mtDNA phylogeny, we find a smaller number of distinct mitochondrial lineages, compared with most other European populations. The frequencies of a number of mtDNA lineages in the Icelanders deviate noticeably from those in neighboring populations, suggesting that founder effects and genetic drift may have had a considerable influence on the Icelandic gene pool. This is in accordance with available demographic evidence about Icelandic population history. A comparison with published mtDNA lineages from European populations indicates that, whereas most founding females probably originated from Scandinavia and the British Isles, lesser contributions from other populations may also have taken place. We present a highly resolved phylogenetic network for the Icelandic data, identifying a number of previously unreported mtDNA lineage clusters and providing a detailed depiction of the evolutionary relationships between European mtDNA clusters. Our findings indicate that European populations contain a large number of closely related mitochondrial lineages, many of which have not yet been sampled in the current comparative data set. Consequently, substantial increases in sample sizes that use mtDNA data will be needed to obtain valid estimates of the diverse ancestral mixtures that ultimately gave rise to contemporary populations. PMID:10712214

Sex prevalence of major congenital anomalies in the United Kingdom: a national population-based study and international comparison meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sokal, Rachel; Tata, Laila J; Fleming, Kate M

2014-02-01

The aim of this study was to assess sex differences in major congenital anomaly (CA) diagnoses within a national population sample; to examine the influence of sociodemographic and maternal factors on these risks; and to conduct a meta-analysis using estimates from other population-based studies. We conducted a population-based study in a United Kingdom research database of prospectively collected primary care data (The Health Improvement Network) including children born 1990 to 2009 (n = 794,169) and identified major CA diagnoses using EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) classification. Prevalence ratios (PR) were used to estimate the risk of CA in males compared with females for any CA, system-specific subgroups and specific CA diagnoses. In a subpopulation of children whose medical records were linked to their mothers', we assessed the effect of adjusting for sociodemographic and maternal factors on sex odds ratios. PRs were pooled with measures from previously published studies. The prevalence of any CA was 307/10,000 in males (95% CI, 302-313) and 243/10,000 in females (95% CI, 238-248). Overall the risk of any CA was 26% greater in males (PR (male: female) 1.26, 95% CI, 1.23-1.30) however there was considerable variation across specific diagnoses. The magnitude and direction of risk did not change for any specific CA upon adjustment for sociodemographic and maternal factors. Our PRs were highly consistent with those from previous studies. The overall risk of CA is greater in males than females, although this masked substantial variation by specific diagnoses. Sociodemographic and maternal factors do not appear to affect these risks. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Birth Defects Research (Part A) published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mitochondrial Mutation Rate, Spectrum and Heteroplasmy in Caenorhabditis elegans Spontaneous Mutation Accumulation Lines of Differing Population Size.

PubMed

Konrad, Anke; Thompson, Owen; Waterston, Robert H; Moerman, Donald G; Keightley, Peter D; Bergthorsson, Ulfar; Katju, Vaishali

2017-06-01

Mitochondrial genomes of metazoans, given their elevated rates of evolution, have served as pivotal markers for phylogeographic studies and recent phylogenetic events. In order to determine the dynamics of spontaneous mitochondrial mutations in small populations in the absence and presence of selection, we evolved mutation accumulation (MA) lines of Caenorhabditis elegans in parallel over 409 consecutive generations at three varying population sizes of N = 1, 10, and 100 hermaphrodites. The N =1 populations should have a minimal influence of natural selection to provide the spontaneous mutation rate and the expected rate of neutral evolution, whereas larger population sizes should experience increasing intensity of selection. New mutations were identified by Illumina paired-end sequencing of 86 mtDNA genomes across 35 experimental lines and compared with published genomes of natural isolates. The spontaneous mitochondrial mutation rate was estimated at 1.05 × 10-7/site/generation. A strong G/C→A/T mutational bias was observed in both the MA lines and the natural isolates. This suggests that the low G + C content at synonymous sites is the product of mutation bias rather than selection as previously proposed. The mitochondrial effective population size per worm generation was estimated to be 62. Although it was previously concluded that heteroplasmy was rare in C. elegans, the vast majority of mutations in this study were heteroplasmic despite an experimental regime exceeding 400 generations. The frequencies of frameshift and nonsynonymous mutations were negatively correlated with population size, which suggests their deleterious effects on fitness and a potent role for selection in their eradication. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Muroid rodent phylogenetics: 900-species tree reveals increasing diversification rates

PubMed Central

Schenk, John J.

2017-01-01

We combined new sequence data for more than 300 muroid rodent species with our previously published sequences for up to five nuclear and one mitochondrial genes to generate the most widely and densely sampled hypothesis of evolutionary relationships across Muroidea. An exhaustive screening procedure for publically available sequences was implemented to avoid the propagation of taxonomic errors that are common to supermatrix studies. The combined data set of carefully screened sequences derived from all available sequences on GenBank with our new data resulted in a robust maximum likelihood phylogeny for 900 of the approximately 1,620 muroids. Several regions that were equivocally resolved in previous studies are now more decisively resolved, and we estimated a chronogram using 28 fossil calibrations for the most integrated age and topological estimates to date. The results were used to update muroid classification and highlight questions needing additional data. We also compared the results of multigene supermatrix studies like this one with the principal published supertrees and concluded that the latter are unreliable for any comparative study in muroids. In addition, we explored diversification patterns as an explanation for why muroid rodents represent one of the most species-rich groups of mammals by detecting evidence for increasing net diversification rates through time across the muroid tree. We suggest the observation of increasing rates may be due to a combination of parallel increases in rate across clades and high average extinction rates. Five increased diversification-rate-shifts were inferred, suggesting that multiple, but perhaps not independent, events have led to the remarkable species diversity in the superfamily. Our results provide a phylogenetic framework for comparative studies that is not highly dependent upon the signal from any one gene. PMID:28813483

Assessment of neighbourhood-level socioeconomic status as a modifier of air pollution-asthma associations among children in Atlanta.

PubMed

O'Lenick, Cassandra R; Winquist, Andrea; Mulholland, James A; Friberg, Mariel D; Chang, Howard H; Kramer, Michael R; Darrow, Lyndsey A; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt

2017-02-01

A broad literature base provides evidence of association between air pollution and paediatric asthma. Socioeconomic status (SES) may modify these associations; however, previous studies have found inconsistent evidence regarding the role of SES. Effect modification of air pollution-paediatric asthma morbidity by multiple indicators of neighbourhood SES was examined in Atlanta, Georgia. Emergency department (ED) visit data were obtained for 5-18 years old with a diagnosis of asthma in 20-county Atlanta during 2002-2008. Daily ZIP Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA)-level concentrations of ozone, nitrogen dioxide, fine particulate matter and elemental carbon were estimated using ambient monitoring data and emissions-based chemical transport model simulations. Pollutant-asthma associations were estimated using a case-crossover approach, controlling for temporal trends and meteorology. Effect modification by ZCTA-level (neighbourhood) SES was examined via stratification. We observed stronger air pollution-paediatric asthma associations in 'deprivation areas' (eg, ≥20% of the ZCTA population living in poverty) compared with 'non-deprivation areas'. When stratifying analyses by quartiles of neighbourhood SES, ORs indicated stronger associations in the highest and lowest SES quartiles and weaker associations among the middle quartiles. Our results suggest that neighbourhood-level SES is a factor contributing vulnerability to air pollution-related paediatric asthma morbidity in Atlanta. Children living in low SES environments appear to be especially vulnerable given positive ORs and high underlying asthma ED rates. Inconsistent findings of effect modification among previous studies may be partially explained by choice of SES stratification criteria, and the use of multiplicative models combined with differing baseline risk across SES populations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

An open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for the global air network in 2010.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Wu, Xiao; Garcia, Andres J; Fik, Timothy J; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-01-01

The expanding global air network provides rapid and wide-reaching connections accelerating both domestic and international travel. To understand human movement patterns on the network and their socioeconomic, environmental and epidemiological implications, information on passenger flow is required. However, comprehensive data on global passenger flow remain difficult and expensive to obtain, prompting researchers to rely on scheduled flight seat capacity data or simple models of flow. This study describes the construction of an open-access modeled passenger flow matrix for all airports with a host city-population of more than 100,000 and within two transfers of air travel from various publicly available air travel datasets. Data on network characteristics, city population, and local area GDP amongst others are utilized as covariates in a spatial interaction framework to predict the air transportation flows between airports. Training datasets based on information from various transportation organizations in the United States, Canada and the European Union were assembled. A log-linear model controlling the random effects on origin, destination and the airport hierarchy was then built to predict passenger flows on the network, and compared to the results produced using previously published models. Validation analyses showed that the model presented here produced improved predictive power and accuracy compared to previously published models, yielding the highest successful prediction rate at the global scale. Based on this model, passenger flows between 1,491 airports on 644,406 unique routes were estimated in the prediction dataset. The airport node characteristics and estimated passenger flows are freely available as part of the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) project at: www.vbd-air.com/data.

Health risk factors as predictors of workers' compensation claim occurrence and cost.

PubMed

Schwatka, Natalie V; Atherly, Adam; Dally, Miranda J; Fang, Hai; vS Brockbank, Claire; Tenney, Liliana; Goetzel, Ron Z; Jinnett, Kimberly; Witter, Roxana; Reynolds, Stephen; McMillen, James; Newman, Lee S

2017-01-01

The objective of this study was to examine the predictive relationships between employee health risk factors (HRFs) and workers' compensation (WC) claim occurrence and costs. Logistic regression and generalised linear models were used to estimate the predictive association between HRFs and claim occurrence and cost among a cohort of 16 926 employees from 314 large, medium and small businesses across multiple industries. First, unadjusted (HRFs only) models were estimated, and second, adjusted (HRFs plus demographic and work organisation variables) were estimated. Unadjusted models demonstrated that several HRFs were predictive of WC claim occurrence and cost. After adjusting for demographic and work organisation differences between employees, many of the relationships previously established did not achieve statistical significance. Stress was the only HRF to display a consistent relationship with claim occurrence, though the type of stress mattered. Stress at work was marginally predictive of a higher odds of incurring a WC claim (p<0.10). Stress at home and stress over finances were predictive of higher and lower costs of claims, respectively (p<0.05). The unadjusted model results indicate that HRFs are predictive of future WC claims. However, the disparate findings between unadjusted and adjusted models indicate that future research is needed to examine the multilevel relationship between employee demographics, organisational factors, HRFs and WC claims. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Parasitic worms: how many really?

PubMed

Strona, Giovanni; Fattorini, Simone

2014-04-01

Accumulation curves are useful tools to estimate species diversity. Here we argue that they can also be used in the study of global parasite species richness. Although this basic idea is not completely new, our approach differs from the previous ones as it treats each host species as an independent sample. We show that randomly resampling host-parasite records from the existing databases makes it possible to empirically model the relationship between the number of investigated host species, and the corresponding number of parasite species retrieved from those hosts. This method was tested on 21 inclusive lists of parasitic worms occurring on vertebrate hosts. All of the obtained models conform well to a power law curve. These curves were then used to estimate global parasite species richness. Results obtained with the new method suggest that current predictions are likely to severely overestimate parasite diversity. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biogeochemical evidence of vigorous mixing in the abyssal ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lampitt, Richard S.; Popova, Ekaterina E.; Tyrrell, Toby

2003-05-01

The metabolic activities of biological communities living at the abyssal seabed create a strong source of nutrients and a sink for oxygen. If the published estimates of vertical mixing based on instantaneous microstructure measurements are correct, near to the abyssal seabed away from rough topographic features there should be enhanced concentrations of nitrate and phosphate and depletion of oxygen. Recent data on the vertical concentration profiles of inorganic nutrients and oxygen over the bottom 1000 m of the water column (World Ocean Circulation Experiment - WOCE) provide no such evidence. It is concluded that the effective vertical mixing rates are much more vigorous than previously indicated and may even be higher than estimates of average basin scale rates based on temperature and salinity distributions. We propose that the enhanced mixing associated with rough topography influences the entire volume of the abyssal ocean on short time scales (e.g., one month - one year).

Modeling Oceanic Primary Production: Photoacclimation and Nutrient Effects on Light-saturated Photosynthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Maranon, Emilio; Siegel, David A.; Hooker, Stanford B.

2000-01-01

In this report, we describe a new model (the 'PhotoAcc' model) for estimating changes in the light-saturated rate of chlorophyll-normalized phytoplankton carbon fixation (Pbmax). The model is based on measurements conducted during the Atlantic Meridional Transect studies and the Bermuda Time Series program. The PhotoAcc model explained 64% to 82% of the observed variability in Pbmax for our data set, whereas none of the previously published Pbmax models described over the past 44 years explained any of the variance. The significance of this result is that a primary limiting factor for extracting ocean carbon fixation rates from satellite measurements of near surface chlorophyll has been errors in the estimate of Pbmax. Our new model should thus result in much improved calculations of oceanic photosynthesis and thus the role of the oceans in the global carbon cycle.

Application of Satellite Altimeter Data to Studies of Ocean Surface Heat Flux and Upper Ocean Thermal Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Xiao-Hal

2003-01-01

This is a one-year cost extension of previous grant but carrying a new award number for the administrative purpose. Supported by this one-year extension, the following research has continued and obtained significant results. 20 papers have been published (9) or submitted (11) to scientific journals in this one-year period. A brief summary of scientific results on: 1. A new method for estimation of the sensible heat flux using satellite vector winds, 2. Pacific warm pool excitation, earth rotation and El Nino Southern Oscillations, 3. A new study of the Mediterranean outflow and Meddies at 400-meter isopycnal surface using multi-sensor data, 4. Response of the coastal ocean to extremely high wind, and 5. Role of wind on the estimation of heat flux using satellite data, are provided below as examples of our many research results conducted in the last year,

Determination of the masses of globular clusters using proper motions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ninkovich, S.

1984-09-01

Published proper motions of stars in the fields of the globular clusters M 15, M 92, and M 13 (Cudworth, 1976 Cudworth and Monet, 1979) are compiled in tables and used to estimate the masses of the clusters by the method of Naumova and Ogorodnikov (1973). Masses of the order of 10 to the 8th solar mass are calculated, as compared to an M 13 mass of about 10 to the 6th solar mass determined by the virial theorem. The higher masses are considered indicative of the actual cluster masses despite the distortion introduced by the presence in the fieldmore » of stars not belonging to the clusters. It is suggested that the difference between these estimates and the smaller masses proposed by previous authors may represent unobservable peripheral dwarf stars or some invisible mass (like the so-called missing mass of the Galaxy).« less

Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Draxl, C.; Purkayastha, A.; Parker, Z.

India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes.more » While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.« less

Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology for optimization of extraction in natural products.

PubMed

Maulidiani; Rudiyanto; Abas, Faridah; Ismail, Intan Safinar; Lajis, Nordin H

2018-06-01

Optimization process is an important aspect in the natural product extractions. Herein, an alternative approach is proposed for the optimization in extraction, namely, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE). The approach combines the Latin hypercube sampling, the feasible range of independent variables, the Monte Carlo simulation, and the threshold criteria of response variables. The GLUE method is tested in three different techniques including the ultrasound, the microwave, and the supercritical CO 2 assisted extractions utilizing the data from previously published reports. The study found that this method can: provide more information on the combined effects of the independent variables on the response variables in the dotty plots; deal with unlimited number of independent and response variables; consider combined multiple threshold criteria, which is subjective depending on the target of the investigation for response variables; and provide a range of values with their distribution for the optimization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of hemoglobin responsiveness to epoetin alfa in patients on hemodialysis using a population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Wu, Liviawati; Mould, Diane R; Perez Ruixo, Juan Jose; Doshi, Sameer

2015-10-01

A population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model describing the effect of epoetin alfa on hemoglobin (Hb) response in hemodialysis patients was developed. Epoetin alfa pharmacokinetics was described using a linear 2-compartment model. PK parameter estimates were similar to previously reported values. A maturation-structured cytokinetic model consisting of 5 compartments linked in a catenary fashion by first-order cell transfer rates following a zero-order input process described the Hb time course. The PD model described 2 subpopulations, one whose Hb response reflected epoetin alfa dosing and a second whose response was unrelated to epoetin alfa dosing. Parameter estimates from the PK/PD model were physiologically reasonable and consistent with published reports. Numerical and visual predictive checks using data from 2 studies were performed. The PK and PD of epoetin alfa were well described by the model. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Mortality of aircraft maintenance workers exposed to trichloroethylene and other hydrocarbons and chemicals: extended follow up

PubMed Central

Radican, Larry; Blair, Aaron; Stewart, Patricia; Wartenberg, Daniel

2009-01-01

Objective To extend follow-up of 14,455 workers from 1990 to 2000, and evaluate mortality risk from exposure to trichloroethylene (TCE) and other chemicals. Methods Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate relative risk for exposed vs. unexposed workers based on previously developed exposure surrogates. Results Among TCE exposed workers, there was no statistically significant increased risk of all-cause mortality (RR=1.04) or death from all cancers (RR=1.03). Exposure-response gradients for TCE were relatively flat and did not materially change since 1990. Statistically significant excesses were found for several chemical exposure subgroups and causes, and were generally consistent with the previous follow up. Conclusions Patterns of mortality have not changed substantially since 1990. While positive associations with several cancers were observed, and are consistent with the published literature, interpretation is limited due to the small numbers of events for specific exposures. PMID:19001957

Verification of otolith identity used by fisheries scientists for aging channel catfish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Stewart, David R.

2010-01-01

Previously published studies of the age estimation of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus based on otoliths have reported using the sagittae, whereas it is likely they were actually using the lapilli. This confusion may have resulted because in catfishes (ostariophyseans) the lapilli are the largest of the three otoliths, whereas in nonostariophysean fish the sagittae are the largest. Based on (1) scanning electron microscope microphotographs of channel catfish otoliths, (2) X-ray computed tomography scans of a channel catfish head, (3) descriptions of techniques used to removed otoliths from channel catfish reported in the literature, and (4) a sample of channel catfish otoliths received from fisheries biologists from around the country, it is clear that lapilli are most often used for channel catfish aging studies, not sagittae, as has been previously reported. Fisheries scientists who obtain otoliths from channel catfish can use the information in this paper to correctly identify otolith age.

Familial recurrence-pattern analysis of nonsyndromic isolated cleft palate - A Danish registry study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christensen, K.; Mitchell, L.E.

1996-01-01

The finding of an association between genetic variation at the transforming growth-factor alpha (TGFA) locus and nonsyndromic isolated cleft palate (CP) represents a potentially important breakthrough in our understanding of this condition. The present study was undertaken to assess the feasibility of detecting linkage to putative CP-susceptibility loci, such as TGFA. To this end, the familial recurrence pattern for CP was evaluated to determine the most likely mode of inheritance for this condition. The study took advantage of the high ascertainment and uniform registration of CP in Denmark. In addition, the study utilized estimates of familial recurrence that were obtainedmore » by register linkage and, hence, were not subject to either recall bias or the potentially biasing influence of nonresponders. The recurrence risks for first-, second-, and third-degree relatives of 1,364 nonsyndromic CP probands were estimated to be 2.74% (72/2,628), 0.28% (3/1,068), and 0.00% (0/360), respectively. These estimates are close to published estimates based on questionnaire and interview data. The population prevalence for nonsyndromic CP was, however, found to be considerable higher than usually reported (0.058% [1,456/2,523,023]). Analyses of these and previously published data, using the method presented by Risch, indicated that major-locus or additive multilocus inheritance of CP is unlikely. The familial recurrence pattern was, however, consistent with CP being determined by several interacting loci. Under such a model, a single locus accounting for more than a sixfold increase in the risk to first-degree relatives of CP probands is unlikely, whereas a single locus accounting for a threefold increase provided a good fit to the data. Such a locus could be detected in a realistic sample of affected sib pairs. 26 refs., 3 tabs.« less

Annual estimates of water and solute export from 42 tributaries to the Yukon River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick Zanden,; Suzanne P. Anderson,; Striegl, Robert G.

2012-01-01

Annual export of 11 major and trace solutes for the Yukon River is found to be accurately determined based on summing 42 tributary contributions. These findings provide the first published estimates of tributary specific distribution of solutes within the Yukon River basin. First, we show that annual discharge of the Yukon River can be computed by summing calculated annual discharges from 42 tributaries. Annual discharge for the tributaries is calculated from the basin area and average annual precipitation over that area using a previously published regional regression equation. Based on tributary inputs, we estimate an average annual discharge for the Yukon River of 210 km3 year–1. This value is within 1% of the average measured annual discharge at the U.S. Geological Survey gaging station near the river terminus at Pilot Station, AK, for water years 2001 through 2005. Next, annual loads for 11 solutes are determined by combining annual discharge with point measurements of solute concentrations in tributary river water. Based on the sum of solutes in tributary water, we find that the Yukon River discharges approximately 33 million metric tons of dissolved solids each year at Pilot Station. Discharged solutes are dominated by cations calcium and magnesium (5.65 × 109 and 1.42 × 109 g year–1) and anions bicarbonate and sulphate (17.3 × 109 and 5.40 × 109 g year–1). These loads compare well with loads calculated independently at the three continuous gaging stations along the Yukon River. These findings show how annual solute yields vary throughout a major subarctic river basin and that accurate estimates of total river export can be determined from calculated tributary contributions.

The development and use of a new methodology to reconstruct courses of admission and ambulatory care based on the Danish National Patient Registry.

PubMed

Gubbels, Sophie; Nielsen, Kenn Schultz; Sandegaard, Jakob; Mølbak, Kåre; Nielsen, Jens

2016-11-01

The Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) contains clinical and administrative data on all patients treated in Danish hospitals. The data model used for reporting is based on standardized coding of contacts rather than courses of admissions and ambulatory care. To reconstruct a coherent picture of courses of admission and ambulatory care, we designed an algorithm with 28 rules that manages transfers between departments, between hospitals and inconsistencies in the data, e.g., missing time stamps, overlaps and gaps. We used data from patients admitted between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014. After application of the DNPR algorithm, we estimated an average of 1,149,616 courses of admission per year or 205 hospitalizations per 1000 inhabitants per year. The median length of stay decreased from 1.58days in 2010 to 1.29days in 2014. The number of transfers between departments within a hospital increased from 111,576 to 176,134 while the number of transfers between hospitals decreased from 68,522 to 61,203. We standardized a 28-rule algorithm to relate registrations in the DNPR to each other in a coherent way. With the algorithm, we estimated 1.15 million courses of admissions per year, which probably reflects a more accurate estimate than the estimates that have been published previously. Courses of admission became shorter between 2010 and 2014 and outpatient contacts longer. These figures are compatible with a cost-conscious secondary healthcare system undertaking specialized treatment within a hospital and limiting referral to advanced services at other hospitals. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Economic Burden of Prescription Opioid Overdose, Abuse, and Dependence in the United States, 2013.

PubMed

Florence, Curtis S; Zhou, Chao; Luo, Feijun; Xu, Likang

2016-10-01

It is important to understand the magnitude and distribution of the economic burden of prescription opioid overdose, abuse, and dependence to inform clinical practice, research, and other decision makers. Decision makers choosing approaches to address this epidemic need cost information to evaluate the cost effectiveness of their choices. To estimate the economic burden of prescription opioid overdose, abuse, and dependence from a societal perspective. Incidence of fatal prescription opioid overdose from the National Vital Statistics System, prevalence of abuse and dependence from the National Survey of Drug Use and Health. Fatal data are for the US population, nonfatal data are a nationally representative sample of the US civilian noninstitutionalized population ages 12 and older. Cost data are from various sources including health care claims data from the Truven Health MarketScan Research Databases, and cost of fatal cases from the WISQARS (Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System) cost module. Criminal justice costs were derived from the Justice Expenditure and Employment Extracts published by the Department of Justice. Estimates of lost productivity were based on a previously published study. Calendar year 2013. Monetized burden of fatal overdose and abuse and dependence of prescription opioids. The total economic burden is estimated to be $78.5 billion. Over one third of this amount is due to increased health care and substance abuse treatment costs ($28.9 billion). Approximately one quarter of the cost is borne by the public sector in health care, substance abuse treatment, and criminal justice costs. These estimates can assist decision makers in understanding the magnitude of adverse health outcomes associated with prescription opioid use such as overdose, abuse, and dependence.

Prevalence of sunburn, sun protection, and indoor tanning behaviors among Americans: review from national surveys and case studies of 3 states.

PubMed

Buller, David B; Cokkinides, Vilma; Hall, H Irene; Hartman, Anne M; Saraiya, Mona; Miller, Eric; Paddock, Lisa; Glanz, Karen

2011-11-01

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation (from solar and nonsolar sources) is a risk factor for skin cancer. We sought to summarize recent estimates on sunburns, sun-protection behaviors, and indoor tanning available from national and selected statewide behavioral surveys. Estimates of the prevalence of sunburn, sun-protection behaviors, and indoor tanning by US adults, adolescents, and children collected in national surveys in 1992, 2004 to 2005, and 2007 to 2009 were identified and extracted from searches of computerized databases (ie, MEDLINE and PsychINFO), reference lists, and survey World Wide Web sites. Sunburn estimates from 3 state Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance Systems were also analyzed. Latest published estimates (2005) showed that 34.4% of US adults were sunburned in the past year. Incidence of sunburns was highest among men, non-Hispanic whites, young adults, and high-income groups in national surveys. About 3 in 10 adults routinely practiced sun-protection behaviors, and women and older adults took the most precautions. Among adolescents, 69% were sunburned in the previous summer and less than 40% practiced sun protection. Approximately 60% of parents applied sunscreen and a quarter used shade to protect children. Indoor tanning was prevalent among younger adults and females. Limitations include potential recall errors and social desirability in self-report measures, and lack of current data on children. Many Americans experienced sunburns and a minority engaged in protective behaviors. Females and older adults were most vigilant about sun protection. Substantial proportions of young women and adolescents recently used indoor tanning. Future efforts should promote protective hats, clothing, and shade; motivate males and younger populations to take precautions; and convince women and adolescents to reduce indoor tanning. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy after fingolimod treatment.

PubMed

Berger, Joseph R; Cree, Bruce A; Greenberg, Benjamin; Hemmer, Bernhard; Ward, Brian J; Dong, Victor M; Merschhemke, Martin

2018-05-15

We describe the characteristics of the 15 patients with fingolimod-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) identified from the Novartis data safety base and provide risk estimates for the disorder. The Novartis safety database was searched for PML cases with a data lock point of August 31, 2017. PML classification was based on previously published criteria. The risk and incidence were estimated using the 15 patients with confirmed PML and the overall population of patients treated with fingolimod. As of August 31, 2017, 15 fingolimod-treated patients had developed PML in the absence of natalizumab treatment in the preceding 6 months. Eleven (73%) were women and the mean age was 53 years (median: 53 years). Fourteen of the 15 patients were treated with fingolimod for >2 years. Two patients had confounding medical conditions. Two patients had natalizumab treatment. This included one patient whose last dose of natalizumab was 3 years and 9 months before the diagnosis of PML. The second patient was receiving fingolimod for 4 years and 6 months, which was discontinued to start natalizumab and was diagnosed with PML 3 months after starting natalizumab. Absolute lymphocyte counts were available for 14 of the 15 patients and none exhibited a sustained grade 4 lymphopenia (≤200 cells/μL). The risk of PML with fingolimod in the absence of prior natalizumab treatment is low. The estimated risk was 0.069 per 1,000 patients (95% confidence interval: 0.039-0.114), and the estimated incidence rate was 3.12 per 100,000 patient-years (95% confidence interval: 1.75-5.15). Neither clinical manifestations nor radiographic features suggested any unique features of fingolimod-associated PML. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the American Academy of Neurology.

Second generation anticoagulant rodenticides in predatory birds: Probabilistic characterisation of toxic liver concentrations and implications for predatory bird populations in Canada.

PubMed

Thomas, Philippe J; Mineau, Pierre; Shore, Richard F; Champoux, Louise; Martin, Pamela A; Wilson, Laurie K; Fitzgerald, Guy; Elliott, John E

2011-07-01

Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides (SGARs) are widely used to control rodent pests but exposure and poisonings occur in non-target species, such as birds of prey. Liver residues are often analysed to detect exposure in birds found dead but their use to assess toxicity of SGARs is problematic. We analysed published data on hepatic rodenticide residues and associated symptoms of anticoagulant poisoning from 270 birds of prey using logistic regression to estimate the probability of toxicosis associated with different liver SGAR residues. We also evaluated exposure to SGARs on a national level in Canada by analysing 196 livers from great horned owls (Bubo virginianus) and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis) found dead at locations across the country. Analysis of a broader sample of raptor species from Quebec also helped define the taxonomic breadth of contamination. Calculated probability curves suggest significant species differences in sensitivity to SGARs and significant likelihood of toxicosis below previously suggested concentrations of concern (<0.1mg/kg). Analysis of birds from Quebec showed that a broad range of raptor species are exposed to SGARs, indicating that generalised terrestrial food chains could be contaminated in the vicinity of the sampled areas. Of the two species for which we had samples from across Canada, great horned owls are exposed to SGARs to a greater extent than red-tailed hawks and the liver residue levels were also higher. Using our probability estimates of effect, we estimate that a minimum of 11% of the sampled great horned owl population is at risk of being directly killed by SGARs. This is the first time the potential mortality impact of SGARs on a raptor population has been estimated. Crown Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty.

PubMed

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B; Van den Brink, Paul J; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I; Preuss, Thomas G

2016-07-06

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-07-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans.

Automated quantification of surface water inundation in wetlands using optical satellite imagery

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeVries, Ben; Huang, Chengquan; Lang, Megan W.; Jones, John W.; Huang, Wenli; Creed, Irena F.; Carroll, Mark L.

2017-01-01

We present a fully automated and scalable algorithm for quantifying surface water inundation in wetlands. Requiring no external training data, our algorithm estimates sub-pixel water fraction (SWF) over large areas and long time periods using Landsat data. We tested our SWF algorithm over three wetland sites across North America, including the Prairie Pothole Region, the Delmarva Peninsula and the Everglades, representing a gradient of inundation and vegetation conditions. We estimated SWF at 30-m resolution with accuracies ranging from a normalized root-mean-square-error of 0.11 to 0.19 when compared with various high-resolution ground and airborne datasets. SWF estimates were more sensitive to subtle inundated features compared to previously published surface water datasets, accurately depicting water bodies, large heterogeneously inundated surfaces, narrow water courses and canopy-covered water features. Despite this enhanced sensitivity, several sources of errors affected SWF estimates, including emergent or floating vegetation and forest canopies, shadows from topographic features, urban structures and unmasked clouds. The automated algorithm described in this article allows for the production of high temporal resolution wetland inundation data products to support a broad range of applications.

Potentially Preventable Deaths Among the Five Leading Causes of Death - United States, 2010 and 2014.

PubMed

García, Macarena C; Bastian, Brigham; Rossen, Lauren M; Anderson, Robert; Miniño, Arialdi; Yoon, Paula W; Faul, Mark; Massetti, Greta; Thomas, Cheryll C; Hong, Yuling; Iademarco, Michael F

2016-11-18

Death rates by specific causes vary across the 50 states and the District of Columbia.* Information on differences in rates for the leading causes of death among states might help state health officials determine prevention goals, priorities, and strategies. CDC analyzed National Vital Statistics System data to provide national and state-specific estimates of potentially preventable deaths among the five leading causes of death in 2014 and compared these estimates with estimates previously published for 2010. Compared with 2010, the estimated number of potentially preventable deaths changed (supplemental material at https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/42472); cancer deaths decreased 25% (from 84,443 to 63,209), stroke deaths decreased 11% (from 16,973 to 15,175), heart disease deaths decreased 4% (from 91,757 to 87,950), chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) (e.g., asthma, bronchitis, and emphysema) deaths increased 1% (from 28,831 to 29,232), and deaths from unintentional injuries increased 23% (from 36,836 to 45,331). A better understanding of progress made in reducing potentially preventable deaths in the United States might inform state and regional efforts targeting the prevention of premature deaths from the five leading causes in the United States.

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages.

PubMed

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, J Lennert; Chola, Lumbwe; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA. We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000-142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000-80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000-29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000-463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8-14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million-USD1.2 billion) may be averted. Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan.

Body composition estimation from selected slices: equations computed from a new semi-automatic thresholding method developed on whole-body CT scans

PubMed Central

Villa, Chiara; Brůžek, Jaroslav

2017-01-01

Background Estimating volumes and masses of total body components is important for the study and treatment monitoring of nutrition and nutrition-related disorders, cancer, joint replacement, energy-expenditure and exercise physiology. While several equations have been offered for estimating total body components from MRI slices, no reliable and tested method exists for CT scans. For the first time, body composition data was derived from 41 high-resolution whole-body CT scans. From these data, we defined equations for estimating volumes and masses of total body AT and LT from corresponding tissue areas measured in selected CT scan slices. Methods We present a new semi-automatic approach to defining the density cutoff between adipose tissue (AT) and lean tissue (LT) in such material. An intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to validate the method. The equations for estimating the whole-body composition volume and mass from areas measured in selected slices were modeled with ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and support vector machine regression (SVMR). Results and Discussion The best predictive equation for total body AT volume was based on the AT area of a single slice located between the 4th and 5th lumbar vertebrae (L4-L5) and produced lower prediction errors (|PE| = 1.86 liters, %PE = 8.77) than previous equations also based on CT scans. The LT area of the mid-thigh provided the lowest prediction errors (|PE| = 2.52 liters, %PE = 7.08) for estimating whole-body LT volume. We also present equations to predict total body AT and LT masses from a slice located at L4-L5 that resulted in reduced error compared with the previously published equations based on CT scans. The multislice SVMR predictor gave the theoretical upper limit for prediction precision of volumes and cross-validated the results. PMID:28533960

Body composition estimation from selected slices: equations computed from a new semi-automatic thresholding method developed on whole-body CT scans.

PubMed

Lacoste Jeanson, Alizé; Dupej, Ján; Villa, Chiara; Brůžek, Jaroslav

2017-01-01

Estimating volumes and masses of total body components is important for the study and treatment monitoring of nutrition and nutrition-related disorders, cancer, joint replacement, energy-expenditure and exercise physiology. While several equations have been offered for estimating total body components from MRI slices, no reliable and tested method exists for CT scans. For the first time, body composition data was derived from 41 high-resolution whole-body CT scans. From these data, we defined equations for estimating volumes and masses of total body AT and LT from corresponding tissue areas measured in selected CT scan slices. We present a new semi-automatic approach to defining the density cutoff between adipose tissue (AT) and lean tissue (LT) in such material. An intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to validate the method. The equations for estimating the whole-body composition volume and mass from areas measured in selected slices were modeled with ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regressions and support vector machine regression (SVMR). The best predictive equation for total body AT volume was based on the AT area of a single slice located between the 4th and 5th lumbar vertebrae (L4-L5) and produced lower prediction errors (|PE| = 1.86 liters, %PE = 8.77) than previous equations also based on CT scans. The LT area of the mid-thigh provided the lowest prediction errors (|PE| = 2.52 liters, %PE = 7.08) for estimating whole-body LT volume. We also present equations to predict total body AT and LT masses from a slice located at L4-L5 that resulted in reduced error compared with the previously published equations based on CT scans. The multislice SVMR predictor gave the theoretical upper limit for prediction precision of volumes and cross-validated the results.

CEINMS: A toolbox to investigate the influence of different neural control solutions on the prediction of muscle excitation and joint moments during dynamic motor tasks.

PubMed

Pizzolato, Claudio; Lloyd, David G; Sartori, Massimo; Ceseracciu, Elena; Besier, Thor F; Fregly, Benjamin J; Reggiani, Monica

2015-11-05

Personalized neuromusculoskeletal (NMS) models can represent the neurological, physiological, and anatomical characteristics of an individual and can be used to estimate the forces generated inside the human body. Currently, publicly available software to calculate muscle forces are restricted to static and dynamic optimisation methods, or limited to isometric tasks only. We have created and made freely available for the research community the Calibrated EMG-Informed NMS Modelling Toolbox (CEINMS), an OpenSim plug-in that enables investigators to predict different neural control solutions for the same musculoskeletal geometry and measured movements. CEINMS comprises EMG-driven and EMG-informed algorithms that have been previously published and tested. It operates on dynamic skeletal models possessing any number of degrees of freedom and musculotendon units and can be calibrated to the individual to predict measured joint moments and EMG patterns. In this paper we describe the components of CEINMS and its integration with OpenSim. We then analyse how EMG-driven, EMG-assisted, and static optimisation neural control solutions affect the estimated joint moments, muscle forces, and muscle excitations, including muscle co-contraction. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies

PubMed Central

Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G.

2017-01-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire. PMID:28696282

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November–December 2017

PubMed Central

Matsuyama, Ryota; Lee, Hyojung; Yamaguchi, Takayuki; Tsuzuki, Shinya

2018-01-01

Background A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R0. Methods A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. Results R0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Discussion Estimated R0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified. PMID:29629244

Quantifying the hurricane catastrophe risk to offshore wind power.

PubMed

Rose, Stephen; Jaramillo, Paulina; Small, Mitchell J; Apt, Jay

2013-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Estimating fatality rates in occupational light vehicle users using vehicle registration and crash data.

PubMed

Stuckey, Rwth; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R

2010-04-01

To estimate occupational light vehicle (OLV) fatality numbers using vehicle registration and crash data and compare these with previous estimates based on workers' compensation data. New South Wales (NSW) Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA) vehicle registration and crash data were obtained for 2004. NSW is the only Australian jurisdiction with mandatory work-use registration, which was used as a proxy for work-relatedness. OLV fatality rates based on registration data as the denominator were calculated and comparisons made with published 2003/04 fatalities based on workers' compensation data. Thirty-four NSW RTA OLV-user fatalities were identified, a rate of 4.5 deaths per 100,000 organisationally registered OLV, whereas the Australian Safety and Compensation Council (ASCC), reported 28 OLV deaths Australia-wide. More OLV user fatalities were identified from vehicle registration-based data than those based on workers' compensation estimates and the data are likely to provide an improved estimate of fatalities specific to OLV use. OLV-use is an important cause of traumatic fatalities that would be better identified through the use of vehicle-registration data, which provides a stronger evidence base from which to develop policy responses. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 Public Health Association of Australia.

Trophic transfer efficiency of methylmercury and inorganic mercury to lake trout Salvelinus namaycush from its prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenijian, C.P.; David, S.R.; Krabbenhoft, D.P.

2012-01-01

Based on a laboratory experiment, we estimated the net trophic transfer efficiency of methylmercury to lake trout Salvelinus namaycush from its prey to be equal to 76.6 %. Under the assumption that gross trophic transfer efficiency of methylmercury to lake trout from its prey was equal to 80 %, we estimated that the rate at which lake trout eliminated methylmercury was 0.000244 day−1. Our laboratory estimate of methylmercury elimination rate was 5.5 times lower than the value predicted by a published regression equation developed from estimates of methylmercury elimination rates for fish available from the literature. Thus, our results, in conjunction with other recent findings, suggested that methylmercury elimination rates for fish have been overestimated in previous studies. In addition, based on our laboratory experiment, we estimated that the net trophic transfer efficiency of inorganic mercury to lake trout from its prey was 63.5 %. The lower net trophic transfer efficiency for inorganic mercury compared with that for methylmercury was partly attributable to the greater elimination rate for inorganic mercury. We also found that the efficiency with which lake trout retained either methylmercury or inorganic mercury from their food did not appear to be significantly affected by the degree of their swimming activity.

Burden of fungal infections in Algeria.

PubMed

Chekiri-Talbi, M; Denning, D W

2017-06-01

We report for the first time in Algeria and provide burden estimates. We searched for existing data and estimated the incidence and prevalence of fungal diseases based on the population at risk and available epidemiological data. Demographic data were derived from the National Office of Statistics (Office National des Statistiques: ONS), World Health Organization (WHO), The Joint Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national published reports. When no data existed, risk populations were used to estimate frequencies of fungal infections, using previously described methodology. Algeria has 40.4 million inhabitants, and probably at least 568,900 (1.41%) of Algerians have a serious fungal infection each year. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (485,000) and fungal asthma (72,000) are probably the commonest problems, as there are over 1 million adult asthmatics. Candidaemia is estimated in 2,020 people, invasive aspergillosis in 2,865 people, and intra-abdominal candidiasis in 303 people; these are the most common life-threatening problems. AIDS is uncommon, but cancer is not (45,000 new cases of cancer including 1,500 in children), nor is COPD (an estimated 317,762 patients, of whom 20.3% are admitted to hospital each year). A focus on improving the diagnosis and epidemiological data related to fungal infection is necessary in Algeria.

Accurate age estimation in small-scale societies.

PubMed

Diekmann, Yoan; Smith, Daniel; Gerbault, Pascale; Dyble, Mark; Page, Abigail E; Chaudhary, Nikhil; Migliano, Andrea Bamberg; Thomas, Mark G

2017-08-01

Precise estimation of age is essential in evolutionary anthropology, especially to infer population age structures and understand the evolution of human life history diversity. However, in small-scale societies, such as hunter-gatherer populations, time is often not referred to in calendar years, and accurate age estimation remains a challenge. We address this issue by proposing a Bayesian approach that accounts for age uncertainty inherent to fieldwork data. We developed a Gibbs sampling Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that produces posterior distributions of ages for each individual, based on a ranking order of individuals from youngest to oldest and age ranges for each individual. We first validate our method on 65 Agta foragers from the Philippines with known ages, and show that our method generates age estimations that are superior to previously published regression-based approaches. We then use data on 587 Agta collected during recent fieldwork to demonstrate how multiple partial age ranks coming from multiple camps of hunter-gatherers can be integrated. Finally, we exemplify how the distributions generated by our method can be used to estimate important demographic parameters in small-scale societies: here, age-specific fertility patterns. Our flexible Bayesian approach will be especially useful to improve cross-cultural life history datasets for small-scale societies for which reliable age records are difficult to acquire.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number of diphtheria: a case study of a Rohingya refugee camp in Bangladesh, November-December 2017.

PubMed

Matsuyama, Ryota; Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R; Endo, Akira; Lee, Hyojung; Yamaguchi, Takayuki; Tsuzuki, Shinya; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2018-01-01

A Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh experienced a large-scale diphtheria epidemic in 2017. The background information of previously immune fraction among refugees cannot be explicitly estimated, and thus we conducted an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number, R 0 . A renewal process model was devised to estimate the R 0 and ascertainment rate of cases, and loss of susceptible individuals was modeled as one minus the sum of initially immune fraction and the fraction naturally infected during the epidemic. To account for the uncertainty of initially immune fraction, we employed a Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) method. R 0 ranged from 4.7 to 14.8 with the median estimate at 7.2. R 0 was positively correlated with ascertainment rates. Sensitivity analysis indicated that R 0 would become smaller with greater variance of the generation time. Estimated R 0 was broadly consistent with published estimate from endemic data, indicating that the vaccination coverage of 86% has to be satisfied to prevent the epidemic by means of mass vaccination. LHS was particularly useful in the setting of a refugee camp in which the background health status is poorly quantified.

Do children perceive postural constraints when estimating reach or action planning?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Cordova, Alberto; Lee, Sunghan

2009-03-01

Estimation of whether an object is reachable from a specific body position constitutes an important aspect in effective motor planning. Researchers who estimate reachability by way of motor imagery with adults consistently report the tendency to overestimate, with some evidence of a postural effect (postural stability hypothesis). This idea suggests that perceived reaching limits depend on an individual's perceived postural constraints. Based on previous work with adults, the authors expected a significant postural effect with the Reach 2 condition, as evidenced by reduced overestimation. Furthermore, the authors hypothesized that the postural effect would be greater in younger children. They then tested these propositions among children aged 7, 9, and 11 years by asking them to estimate reach while seated (Reach 1) and in the more demanding posture of standing on 1 foot and leaning forward (Reach 2). Results indicated no age or condition difference, therefore providing no support for a postural effect. When the authors compared these data to a published report of adults, a developmental difference emerged. That is, adults recognize the perceived postural constraint of the standing position resulting in under- rather than overestimation, as displayed in the seated condition. Although preliminary, these observations suggest that estimates of reach (action planning) continue to be refined between late childhood and young adulthood.

Estimating the Health and Economic Impacts of Changes in Local Air Quality

PubMed Central

Carvour, Martha L.; Hughes, Amy E.; Fann, Neal

2018-01-01

Objectives. To demonstrate the benefits-mapping software Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE), which integrates local air quality data with previously published concentration–response and health–economic valuation functions to estimate the health effects of changes in air pollution levels and their economic consequences. Methods. We illustrate a local health impact assessment of ozone changes in the 10-county nonattainment area of the Dallas–Fort Worth region of Texas, estimating the short-term effects on mortality predicted by 2 scenarios for 3 years (2008, 2011, and 2013): an incremental rollback of the daily 8-hour maximum ozone levels of all area monitors by 10 parts per billion and a rollback-to-a-standard ambient level of 65 parts per billion at only monitors above that level. Results. Estimates of preventable premature deaths attributable to ozone air pollution obtained by the incremental rollback method varied little by year, whereas those obtained by the rollback-to-a-standard method varied by year and were sensitive to the choice of ordinality and the use of preloaded or imported data. Conclusions. BenMAP-CE allows local and regional public health analysts to generate timely, evidence-based estimates of the health impacts and economic consequences of potential policy options in their communities. PMID:29698094

Prevalence and incidence of Entamoeba histolytica infection in South Africa and Egypt.

PubMed

Stauffer, William; Abd-Alla, Mohamed; Ravdin, Jonathan I

2006-02-01

There are little data on the true prevalence and incidence of Entamoeba histolytica infection in Africa. This is due to the inability, historically, to differentiate Entamoeba histolytica from the more common, but non-pathogenic, Entamoeba dispar. In addition, newer studies have demonstrated that the previous gold standard, culture with zymodeme analysis, is insensitive in detecting the presence of infection, especially when compared to PCR. Recent published articles as well as data from the authors' previous work are reviewed and summarized to elucidate what is known about prevalence and incidence of Entamoeba histolytica in Africa. The majority of data on asymptomatic infection are published from South Africa, Egypt and Cote d'Ivoire. Egypt has high rates of asymptomatic infection detected in the stool (>21%), whereas South Africa and Cote d'Ivoire rates range between 0 and 2%. Seroprevalence estimates the rate of recent infection, because anti-amebic antibodies generally persist for <5 years. Seropositivity rates (IgG, IgA) range from approximately 10 to 20%, indicating recent infection in this proportion of the population. Entamoeba histolytica infects a significant proportion of many populations of Africa; however, little data are currently available to indicate true prevalence and incidence. Further studies are needed to determine the burden of infection and disease in Africa.

Calculating the dermal flux of chemicals with OELs based on their molecular structure: An attempt to assign the skin notation.

PubMed

Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata; Jakubowski, Marek; Czerczak, Sławomir

2010-09-01

Our objectives included calculating the permeability coefficient and dermal penetration rates (flux value) for 112 chemicals with occupational exposure limits (OELs) according to the LFER (linear free-energy relationship) model developed using published methods. We also attempted to assign skin notations based on each chemical's molecular structure. There are many studies available where formulae for coefficients of permeability from saturated aqueous solutions (K(p)) have been related to physicochemical characteristics of chemicals. The LFER model is based on the solvation equation, which contains five main descriptors predicted from chemical structure: solute excess molar refractivity, dipolarity/polarisability, summation hydrogen bond acidity and basicity, and the McGowan characteristic volume. Descriptor values, available for about 5000 compounds in the Pharma Algorithms Database were used to calculate permeability coefficients. Dermal penetration rate was estimated as a ratio of permeability coefficient and concentration of chemical in saturated aqueous solution. Finally, estimated dermal penetration rates were used to assign the skin notation to chemicals. Defined critical fluxes defined from the literature were recommended as reference values for skin notation. The application of Abraham descriptors predicted from chemical structure and LFER analysis in calculation of permeability coefficients and flux values for chemicals with OELs was successful. Comparison of calculated K(p) values with data obtained earlier from other models showed that LFER predictions were comparable to those obtained by some previously published models, but the differences were much more significant for others. It seems reasonable to conclude that skin should not be characterised as a simple lipophilic barrier alone. Both lipophilic and polar pathways of permeation exist across the stratum corneum. It is feasible to predict skin notation on the basis of the LFER and other published models; from among 112 chemicals 94 (84%) should have the skin notation in the OEL list based on the LFER calculations. The skin notation had been estimated by other published models for almost 94% of the chemicals. Twenty-nine (25.8%) chemicals were identified to have significant absorption and 65 (58%) the potential for dermal toxicity. We found major differences between alternative published analytical models and their ability to determine whether particular chemicals were potentially dermotoxic. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Performance comparison of the Prophecy (forecasting) Algorithm in FFT form for unseen feature and time-series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James

2013-06-01

We introduce a generalized numerical prediction and forecasting algorithm. We have previously published it for malware byte sequence feature prediction and generalized distribution modeling for disparate test article analysis. We show how non-trivial non-periodic extrapolation of a numerical sequence (forecast and backcast) from the starting data is possible. Our ancestor-progeny prediction can yield new options for evolutionary programming. Our equations enable analytical integrals and derivatives to any order. Interpolation is controllable from smooth continuous to fractal structure estimation. We show how our generalized trigonometric polynomial can be derived using a Fourier transform.

Hierarchical Traces for Reduced NSM Memory Requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Torbjørn S.

This paper presents work on using hierarchical long term memory to reduce the memory requirements of nearest sequence memory (NSM) learning, a previously published, instance-based reinforcement learning algorithm. A hierarchical memory representation reduces the memory requirements by allowing traces to share common sub-sequences. We present moderated mechanisms for estimating discounted future rewards and for dealing with hidden state using hierarchical memory. We also present an experimental analysis of how the sub-sequence length affects the memory compression achieved and show that the reduced memory requirements do not effect the speed of learning. Finally, we analyse and discuss the persistence of the sub-sequences independent of specific trace instances.

Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

2018-02-01

A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

Kinematics and age of 15 stars-photometric solar analogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galeev, A. I.; Shimansky, V. V.

2008-03-01

The radial and space velocities are inferred for 15 stars that are photometric analogs of the Sun. The space velocity components (U, V, W) of most of these stars lie within the 10-60 km/s interval. The star HD 225239, which in our previous papers we classified as a subgiant, has a space velocity exceeding 100 km/s, and belongs to the thick disk. The inferred fundamental parameters of the atmospheres of solar analogs are combined with published evolutionary tracks to estimate the masses and ages of the stars studied. The kinematics of photometric analogs is compared to the data for a large group of solar-type stars.

Estimated prevalence of hearing loss and provision of hearing services in Pacific Island nations.

PubMed

Sanders, Michael; Houghton, Natasha; Dewes, Ofa; McCool, Judith; Thorne, Peter R

2015-03-01

Hearing impairment (HI) affects an estimated 538 million people worldwide, with 80% of these living in developing countries. Untreated HI in childhood may lead to developmental delay and in adults results in social isolation, inability to find or maintain employment, and dependency. Early intervention and support programmes can significantly reduce the negative effects of HI. To estimate HI prevalence and identify available hearing services in some Pacific countries - Cook Islands, Fiji, Niue, Samoa, Tokelau, Tonga. Data were collected through literature review and correspondence with service providers. Prevalence estimates were based on census data and previously published regional estimates. Estimates indicate 20-23% of the population may have at least a mild HI, with up to 11% having a moderate impairment or worse. Estimated incidence of chronic otitis media in Pacific Island nations is 3-5 times greater than other Australasian countries in children under 10 years old. Permanent HI from otitis media is substantially more likely in children and adults in Pacific Island nations. Several organisations and individuals provide some limited hearing services in a few Pacific Island nations, but the majority of people with HI are largely underserved. Although accurate information on HI prevalence is lacking, prevalence estimates of HI and ear disease suggest they are significant health conditions in Pacific Island nations. There is relatively little support for people with HI or ear disease in the Pacific region. An investment in initiatives to both identify and support people with hearing loss in the Pacific is necessary.

Modular neuron-based body estimation: maintaining consistency over different limbs, modalities, and frames of reference

PubMed Central

Ehrenfeld, Stephan; Herbort, Oliver; Butz, Martin V.

2013-01-01

This paper addresses the question of how the brain maintains a probabilistic body state estimate over time from a modeling perspective. The neural Modular Modality Frame (nMMF) model simulates such a body state estimation process by continuously integrating redundant, multimodal body state information sources. The body state estimate itself is distributed over separate, but bidirectionally interacting modules. nMMF compares the incoming sensory and present body state information across the interacting modules and fuses the information sources accordingly. At the same time, nMMF enforces body state estimation consistency across the modules. nMMF is able to detect conflicting sensory information and to consequently decrease the influence of implausible sensor sources on the fly. In contrast to the previously published Modular Modality Frame (MMF) model, nMMF offers a biologically plausible neural implementation based on distributed, probabilistic population codes. Besides its neural plausibility, the neural encoding has the advantage of enabling (a) additional probabilistic information flow across the separate body state estimation modules and (b) the representation of arbitrary probability distributions of a body state. The results show that the neural estimates can detect and decrease the impact of false sensory information, can propagate conflicting information across modules, and can improve overall estimation accuracy due to additional module interactions. Even bodily illusions, such as the rubber hand illusion, can be simulated with nMMF. We conclude with an outlook on the potential of modeling human data and of invoking goal-directed behavioral control. PMID:24191151

An appraisal of Indonesia's immense peat carbon stock using national peatland maps: uncertainties and potential losses from conversion.

PubMed

Warren, Matthew; Hergoualc'h, Kristell; Kauffman, J Boone; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Kolka, Randall

2017-12-01

A large proportion of the world's tropical peatlands occur in Indonesia where rapid conversion and associated losses of carbon, biodiversity and ecosystem services have brought peatland management to the forefront of Indonesia's climate mitigation efforts. We evaluated peat volume from two commonly referenced maps of peat distribution and depth published by Wetlands International (WI) and the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), and used regionally specific values of carbon density to calculate carbon stocks. Peatland extent and volume published in the MoA maps are lower than those in the WI maps, resulting in lower estimates of carbon storage. We estimate Indonesia's total peat carbon store to be within 13.6 GtC (the low MoA map estimate) and 40.5 GtC (the high WI map estimate) with a best estimate of 28.1 GtC: the midpoint of medium carbon stock estimates derived from WI (30.8 GtC) and MoA (25.3 GtC) maps. This estimate is about half of previous assessments which used an assumed average value of peat thickness for all Indonesian peatlands, and revises the current global tropical peat carbon pool to 75 GtC. Yet, these results do not diminish the significance of Indonesia's peatlands, which store an estimated 30% more carbon than the biomass of all Indonesian forests. The largest discrepancy between maps is for the Papua province, which accounts for 62-71% of the overall differences in peat area, volume and carbon storage. According to the MoA map, 80% of Indonesian peatlands are <300 cm thick and thus vulnerable to conversion outside of protected areas according to environmental regulations. The carbon contained in these shallower peatlands is conservatively estimated to be 10.6 GtC, equivalent to 42% of Indonesia's total peat carbon and about 12 years of global emissions from land use change at current rates. Considering the high uncertainties in peatland extent, volume and carbon storage revealed in this assessment of current maps, a systematic revision of Indonesia's peat maps to produce a single geospatial reference that is universally accepted would improve national peat carbon storage estimates and greatly benefit carbon cycle research, land use management and spatial planning.

Uncertainty estimation of predictions of peptides' chromatographic retention times in shotgun proteomics.

PubMed

Maboudi Afkham, Heydar; Qiu, Xuanbin; The, Matthew; Käll, Lukas

2017-02-15

Liquid chromatography is frequently used as a means to reduce the complexity of peptide-mixtures in shotgun proteomics. For such systems, the time when a peptide is released from a chromatography column and registered in the mass spectrometer is referred to as the peptide's retention time . Using heuristics or machine learning techniques, previous studies have demonstrated that it is possible to predict the retention time of a peptide from its amino acid sequence. In this paper, we are applying Gaussian Process Regression to the feature representation of a previously described predictor E lude . Using this framework, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the uncertainty of the prediction made by the model. Here we show how this uncertainty relates to the actual error of the prediction. In our experiments, we observe a strong correlation between the estimated uncertainty provided by Gaussian Process Regression and the actual prediction error. This relation provides us with new means for assessment of the predictions. We demonstrate how a subset of the peptides can be selected with lower prediction error compared to the whole set. We also demonstrate how such predicted standard deviations can be used for designing adaptive windowing strategies. lukas.kall@scilifelab.se. Our software and the data used in our experiments is publicly available and can be downloaded from https://github.com/statisticalbiotechnology/GPTime . © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

[Estimated prevalence of autism spectrum disorders in the Canary Islands].

PubMed

Fortea Sevilla, M S; Escandell Bermúdez, M O; Castro Sánchez, J J

2013-12-01

To make an initial estimate of the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) among children in the province of Las Palmas (Spain). Descriptive study was conducted on 1,796 children between the ages of 18 and 30 months of age, all part of the Child Health Surveillance of the Canary Islands, more specifically the province of Las Palmas, with a population of 1,090,605. The parents of children involved completed the Spanish version of the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT/ES) in the paediatric clinic. The positive cases were then diagnosed by experts by means of the Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADIR) and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS). A 0.61% prevalence of ASDs was determined, similar to that reported in previous studies using the same tools. The ratio was six girls for every five boys. This was contrary to the results of previous studies which suggested more boys than girls were affected. This may have been due to the sample size, which will have to be increased in future studies to confirm this outcome. An increased sample size and also spread to other age ranges should be used in order to obtain a more reliable estimate of prevalence. As regards the gender ratio, this could be a result of the small size of the sample researched, and should therefore be confirmed by further studies. Copyright © 2012 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Fine-scale spatio-temporal variation in tiger Panthera tigris diet: Effect of study duration and extent on estimates of tiger diet in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapfer, Paul M.; Streby, Henry M.; Gurung, B.; Simcharoen, A.; McDougal, C.C.; Smith, J.L.D.

2011-01-01

Attempts to conserve declining tiger Panthera tigris populations and distributions have experienced limited success. The poaching of tiger prey is a key threat to tiger persistence; a clear understanding of tiger diet is a prerequisite to conserve dwindling populations. We used unpublished data on tiger diet in combination with two previously published studies to examine fine-scale spatio-temporal changes in tiger diet relative to prey abundance in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and aggregated data from the three studies to examine the effect that study duration and the size of the study area have on estimates of tiger diet. Our results correspond with those of previous studies: in all three studies, tiger diet was dominated by members of Cervidae; small to medium-sized prey was important in one study. Tiger diet was unrelated to prey abundance, and the aggregation of studies indicates that increasing study duration and study area size both result in increased dietary diversity in terms of prey categories consumed, and increasing study duration changed which prey species contributed most to tiger diet. Based on our results, we suggest that managers focus their efforts on minimizing the poaching of all tiger prey, and that future studies of tiger diet be of long duration and large spatial extent to improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in estimates of tiger diet. ?? 2011 Wildlife Biology, NKV.

Dietary Protein Intake in Young Children in Selected Low-Income Countries Is Generally Adequate in Relation to Estimated Requirements for Healthy Children, Except When Complementary Food Intake Is Low123

PubMed Central

Arsenault, Joanne E; Brown, Kenneth H

2017-01-01

Background: Previous research indicates that young children in low-income countries (LICs) generally consume greater amounts of protein than published estimates of protein requirements, but this research did not account for protein quality based on the mix of amino acids and the digestibility of ingested protein. Objective: Our objective was to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake by young children in LICs, accounting for protein quality. Methods: Seven data sets with information on dietary intake for children (6–35 mo of age) from 6 LICs (Peru, Guatemala, Ecuador, Bangladesh, Uganda, and Zambia) were reanalyzed to estimate protein and amino acid intake and assess adequacy. The protein digestibility–corrected amino acid score of each child’s diet was calculated and multiplied by the original (crude) protein intake to obtain an estimate of available protein intake. Distributions of usual intake were obtained to estimate the prevalence of inadequate protein and amino acid intake for each cohort according to Estimated Average Requirements. Results: The prevalence of inadequate protein intake was highest in breastfeeding children aged 6–8 mo: 24% of Bangladeshi and 16% of Peruvian children. With the exception of Bangladesh, the prevalence of inadequate available protein intake decreased by age 9–12 mo and was very low in all sites (0–2%) after 12 mo of age. Inadequate protein intake in children <12 mo of age was due primarily to low energy intake from complementary foods, not inadequate protein density. Conclusions: Overall, most children consumed protein amounts greater than requirements, except for the younger breastfeeding children, who were consuming low amounts of complementary foods. These findings reinforce previous evidence that dietary protein is not generally limiting for children in LICs compared with estimated requirements for healthy children, even after accounting for protein quality. However, unmeasured effects of infection and intestinal dysfunction on the children’s protein requirements could modify this conclusion. PMID:28202639

Estimating soil matric potential in Owens Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorenson, Stephen K.; Miller, Reuben F.; Welch, Michael R.; Groeneveld, David P.; Branson, Farrel A.

1989-01-01

Much of the floor of Owens Valley, California, is covered with alkaline scrub and alkaline meadow plant communities, whose existence is dependent partly on precipitation and partly on water infiltrated into the rooting zone from the shallow water table. The extent to which these plant communities are capable of adapting to and surviving fluctuations in the water table depends on physiological adaptations of the plants and on the water content, matric potential characteristics of the soils. Two methods were used to estimate soil matric potential in test sites in Owens Valley. The first, the filter-paper method, uses water content of filter papers equilibrated to water content of soil samples taken with a hand auger. The previously published calibration relations used to estimate soil matric potential from the water content of the filter papers were modified on the basis of current laboratory data. The other method of estimating soil matric potential was a modeling approach based on data from this and previous investigations. These data indicate that the base-10 logarithm of soil matric potential is a linear function of gravimetric soil water content for a particular soil. The slope and intercepts of this function vary with the texture and saturation capacity of the soil. Estimates of soil water characteristic curves were made at two sites by averaging the gravimetric soil water content and soil matric potential values from multiple samples at 0.1-m depth intervals derived by using the hand auger and filter-paper method and entering these values in the soil water model. The characteristic curves then were used to estimate soil matric potential from estimates of volumetric soil water content derived from neutron-probe readings. Evaluation of the modeling technique at two study sites indicated that estimates of soil matric potential within 0.5 pF units of the soil matric potential value derived by using the filter-paper method could be obtained 90 to 95 percent of the time in soils where water content was less than field capacity. The greatest errors occurred at depths where there was a distinct transition between soils of different textures.

Convex-hull mass estimates of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus): application of a CT-based mass estimation technique

PubMed Central

O’Mahoney, Thomas G.; Kitchener, Andrew C.; Manning, Phillip L.; Sellers, William I.

2016-01-01

The external appearance of the dodo (Raphus cucullatus, Linnaeus, 1758) has been a source of considerable intrigue, as contemporaneous accounts or depictions are rare. The body mass of the dodo has been particularly contentious, with the flightless pigeon alternatively reconstructed as slim or fat depending upon the skeletal metric used as the basis for mass prediction. Resolving this dichotomy and obtaining a reliable estimate for mass is essential before future analyses regarding dodo life history, physiology or biomechanics can be conducted. Previous mass estimates of the dodo have relied upon predictive equations based upon hind limb dimensions of extant pigeons. Yet the hind limb proportions of dodo have been found to differ considerably from those of their modern relatives, particularly with regards to midshaft diameter. Therefore, application of predictive equations to unusually robust fossil skeletal elements may bias mass estimates. We present a whole-body computed tomography (CT) -based mass estimation technique for application to the dodo. We generate 3D volumetric renders of the articulated skeletons of 20 species of extant pigeons, and wrap minimum-fit ‘convex hulls’ around their bony extremities. Convex hull volume is subsequently regressed against mass to generate predictive models based upon whole skeletons. Our best-performing predictive model is characterized by high correlation coefficients and low mean squared error (a = − 2.31, b = 0.90, r2 = 0.97, MSE = 0.0046). When applied to articulated composite skeletons of the dodo (National Museums Scotland, NMS.Z.1993.13; Natural History Museum, NHMUK A.9040 and S/1988.50.1), we estimate eviscerated body masses of 8–10.8 kg. When accounting for missing soft tissues, this may equate to live masses of 10.6–14.3 kg. Mass predictions presented here overlap at the lower end of those previously published, and support recent suggestions of a relatively slim dodo. CT-based reconstructions provide a means of objectively estimating mass and body segment properties of extinct species using whole articulated skeletons. PMID:26788418

Sibling recurrence and the genetic epidemiology of autism

PubMed Central

Constantino, John N.; Zhang, Yi; Frazier, Thomas; Abbacchi, Anna M.; Law, Paul

2010-01-01

Objective Although the symptoms of autism exhibit quantitative distributions in nature, estimates of recurrence risk in families have never previously considered or incorporated quantitative characterization of the autistic phenotype among siblings. Method We report the results of quantitative characterization of 2,920 children from 1,235 families participating in a national volunteer register who met the criteria of having at least one child clinically-affected by an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and at least one full biological sibling. Results The occurrence of a traditionally-defined ASD in an additional child occurred in 10.9% of the families. An additional 20% of non-ASD-affected siblings had a history of language delay, half of whom had exhibited autistic qualities of speech. Quantitative characterization using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) supported previously-reported aggregation of a wide range of subclinical (quantitative) autistic traits among otherwise unaffected children in multiple-incidence families, and a relative absence of quantitative autistic traits among siblings in single-incidence autism families. Girls whose standardized severity ratings fell above a first percentile severity threshold (relative to the general population distribution) were significantly less likely to have elicited community diagnoses than their male counterparts. Conclusions These data suggest that, depending on how it is defined, sibling recurrence in ASD may exceed previously-published estimates, and varies as a function of family type. The results support differences in mechanisms of genetic transmission between simplex and multiplex autism, and advance current understanding of the genetic epidemiology of autism. PMID:20889652

Retrieval of volcanic ash height from satellite-based infrared measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lin; Li, Jun; Zhao, Yingying; Gong, He; Li, Wenjie

2017-05-01

A new algorithm for retrieving volcanic ash cloud height from satellite-based measurements is presented. This algorithm, which was developed in preparation for China's next-generation meteorological satellite (FY-4), is based on volcanic ash microphysical property simulation and statistical optimal estimation theory. The MSG satellite's main payload, a 12-channel Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager, was used as proxy data to test this new algorithm. A series of eruptions of Iceland's Eyjafjallajökull volcano during April to May 2010 and the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcanic complex eruption in the Chilean Andes on 16 June 2011 were selected as two typical cases for evaluating the algorithm under various meteorological backgrounds. Independent volcanic ash simulation training samples and satellite-based Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data were used as validation data. It is demonstrated that the statistically based volcanic ash height algorithm is able to rapidly retrieve volcanic ash heights, globally. The retrieved ash heights show comparable accuracy with both independent training data and the lidar measurements, which is consistent with previous studies. However, under complicated background, with multilayers in vertical scale, underlying stratus clouds tend to have detrimental effects on the final retrieval accuracy. This is an unresolved problem, like many other previously published methods using passive satellite sensors. Compared with previous studies, the FY-4 ash height algorithm is independent of simultaneous atmospheric profiles, providing a flexible way to estimate volcanic ash height using passive satellite infrared measurements.

Meta-regression analysis of the effect of trans fatty acids on low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Allen, Bruce C; Vincent, Melissa J; Liska, DeAnn; Haber, Lynne T

2016-12-01

We conducted a meta-regression of controlled clinical trial data to investigate quantitatively the relationship between dietary intake of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) and increased low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). Previous regression analyses included insufficient data to determine the nature of the dose response in the low-dose region and have nonetheless assumed a linear relationship between iTFA intake and LDL-C levels. This work contributes to the previous work by 1) including additional studies examining low-dose intake (identified using an evidence mapping procedure); 2) investigating a range of curve shapes, including both linear and nonlinear models; and 3) using Bayesian meta-regression to combine results across trials. We found that, contrary to previous assumptions, the linear model does not acceptably fit the data, while the nonlinear, S-shaped Hill model fits the data well. Based on a conservative estimate of the degree of intra-individual variability in LDL-C (0.1 mmoL/L), as an estimate of a change in LDL-C that is not adverse, a change in iTFA intake of 2.2% of energy intake (%en) (corresponding to a total iTFA intake of 2.2-2.9%en) does not cause adverse effects on LDL-C. The iTFA intake associated with this change in LDL-C is substantially higher than the average iTFA intake (0.5%en). Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Job Strain and the Cortisol Diurnal Cycle in MESA: Accounting for Between- and Within-Day Variability.

PubMed

Rudolph, Kara E; Sánchez, Brisa N; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Greenberg, Benjamin; Fujishiro, Kaori; Wand, Gary S; Shrager, Sandi; Seeman, Teresa; Diez Roux, Ana V; Golden, Sherita H

2016-03-01

Evidence of the link between job strain and cortisol levels has been inconsistent. This could be due to failure to account for cortisol variability leading to underestimated standard errors. Our objective was to model the relationship between job strain and the whole cortisol curve, accounting for sources of cortisol variability. Our functional mixed-model approach incorporated all available data-18 samples over 3 days-and uncertainty in estimated relationships. We used employed participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis Stress I Study and data collected between 2002 and 2006. We used propensity score matching on an extensive set of variables to control for sources of confounding. We found that job strain was associated with lower salivary cortisol levels and lower total area under the curve. We found no relationship between job strain and the cortisol awakening response. Our findings differed from those of several previous studies. It is plausible that our results were unique to middle- to older-aged racially, ethnically, and occupationally diverse adults and were therefore not inconsistent with previous research among younger, mostly white samples. However, it is also plausible that previous findings were influenced by residual confounding and failure to propagate uncertainty (i.e., account for the multiple sources of variability) in estimating cortisol features. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Intraclass correlation estimates for cancer screening outcomes: estimates and applications in the design of group-randomized cancer screening studies.

PubMed

Hade, Erinn M; Murray, David M; Pennell, Michael L; Rhoda, Dale; Paskett, Electra D; Champion, Victoria L; Crabtree, Benjamin F; Dietrich, Allen; Dignan, Mark B; Farmer, Melissa; Fenton, Joshua J; Flocke, Susan; Hiatt, Robert A; Hudson, Shawna V; Mitchell, Michael; Monahan, Patrick; Shariff-Marco, Salma; Slone, Stacey L; Stange, Kurt; Stewart, Susan L; Strickland, Pamela A Ohman

2010-01-01

Screening has become one of our best tools for early detection and prevention of cancer. The group-randomized trial is the most rigorous experimental design for evaluating multilevel interventions. However, identifying the proper sample size for a group-randomized trial requires reliable estimates of intraclass correlation (ICC) for screening outcomes, which are not available to researchers. We present crude and adjusted ICC estimates for cancer screening outcomes for various levels of aggregation (physician, clinic, and county) and provide an example of how these ICC estimates may be used in the design of a future trial. Investigators working in the area of cancer screening were contacted and asked to provide crude and adjusted ICC estimates using the analysis of variance method estimator. Of the 29 investigators identified, estimates were obtained from 10 investigators who had relevant data. ICC estimates were calculated from 13 different studies, with more than half of the studies collecting information on colorectal screening. In the majority of cases, ICC estimates could be adjusted for age, education, and other demographic characteristics, leading to a reduction in the ICC. ICC estimates varied considerably by cancer site and level of aggregation of the groups. Previously, only two articles had published ICCs for cancer screening outcomes. We have complied more than 130 crude and adjusted ICC estimates covering breast, cervical, colon, and prostate screening and have detailed them by level of aggregation, screening measure, and study characteristics. We have also demonstrated their use in planning a future trial and the need for the evaluation of the proposed interval estimator for binary outcomes under conditions typically seen in GRTs.

Elder mistreatment in a community dwelling population: the Malaysian Elder Mistreatment Project (MAESTRO) cohort study protocol.

PubMed

Choo, Wan Yuen; Hairi, Noran Naqiah; Sooryanarayana, Rajini; Yunus, Raudah Mohd; Hairi, Farizah Mohd; Ismail, Norliana; Kandiben, Shathanapriya; Mohd Ali, Zainudin; Ahmad, Sharifah Nor; Abdul Razak, Inayah; Othman, Sajaratulnisah; Tan, Maw Pin; Mydin, Fadzilah Hanum Mohd; Peramalah, Devi; Brownell, Patricia; Bulgiba, Awang

2016-05-25

Despite being now recognised as a global health concern, there is still an inadequate amount of research into elder mistreatment, especially in low and middle-income regions. The purpose of this paper is to report on the design and methodology of a population-based cohort study on elder mistreatment among the older Malaysian population. The study aims at gathering data and evidence to estimate the prevalence and incidence of elder mistreatment, identify its individual, familial and social determinants, and quantify its health consequences. This is a community-based prospective cohort study using randomly selected households from the national census. A multistage sampling method was employed to obtain a total of 2496 older adults living in the rural Kuala Pilah district. The study is divided into two phases: cross-sectional study (baseline), and a longitudinal follow-up study at the third and fifth years. Elder mistreatment was measured using instrument derived from the previous literature and modified Conflict Tactic Scales. Outcomes of elder mistreatment include mortality, physical function, mental health, quality of life and health utilisation. Logistic regression models are used to examine the relationship between risk factors and abuse estimates. Cox proportional hazard regression will be used to estimate risk of mortality associated with abuse. Associated annual rate of hospitalisation and health visit frequency, and reporting of abuse, will be estimated using Poisson regression. The study has been approved by the Medical Ethics Committee of the University of Malaya Medical Center (MEC Ref 902.2) and the Malaysian National Medical Research Register (NMRR-12-1444-11726). Written consent was obtained from all respondents prior to baseline assessment and subsequent follow-up. Findings will be disseminated to local stakeholders via forums with community leaders, and health and social welfare departments, and published in appropriate scientific journals and presented at conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The Burden of Fungal Diseases in Romania

PubMed Central

Moroti-Constantinescu, Valentina Ruxandra

2018-01-01

Objective: To estimate for the first time the burden of fungal infections in Romania. Methods: Data derived from the World Health Organization (WHO), National Institute of Statistics, Romanian public health agencies and non-profit health organizations, and published annual reports on local epidemiology were used in the present study. When no data were available, specific at-risk populations were used to calculate frequencies of serious fungal diseases, using previously published epidemiological parameters. All data refer to the year 2016. Results: The estimated number of serious fungal infections in Romanian population was 436,230 in 2016. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis accounted for up to 80% of total cases (more than 350,000 women annually). Concerning HIV-related infections, among 14,349 infected persons, Pneumocystis pneumonia occurred in about 10% of late presenters (30 cases in 2016), while cryptococcal meningitis was rarely diagnosed (less than 20 cases). Annually, the total number of oesophageal candidiasis and oral thrush cases in HIV-positive patients may have been as high as 1229 and 3066, respectively. In immunocompromised and cancer patient populations, the annual incidence of candidaemia was 295, and at least 458 invasive aspergillosis cases and 4 mucormycosis cases occurred yearly. With 4966 critical care beds and approximately 200,000 abdominal surgeries performed, the estimated annual incidence of candidaemia and Candida peritonitis was 689 and 344, respectively. The annual incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is still high in Romania (12,747 cases). Thus, the prevalence of post-TB chronic pulmonary aspergillosis is estimated to be 8.98/100,000 (1768 cases). The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in adults is 6% and 6.5%, respectively. Therefore, allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis prevalence is estimated at 29,387 and severe asthma with fungal sensitisation at 38,731 cases annually. Conclusions: Not being on the list of reportable diseases, the number of patients presenting with severe mycoses in Romania can only be roughly estimated. Based on local reports and prevalence estimation, we consider that at least 2.23% of Romanians suffer from a serious form of fungal disease. PMID:29494484

The Burden of Fungal Diseases in Romania.

PubMed

Mareș, Mihai; Moroti-Constantinescu, Valentina Ruxandra; Denning, David W

2018-03-01

To estimate for the first time the burden of fungal infections in Romania. Data derived from the World Health Organization (WHO), National Institute of Statistics, Romanian public health agencies and non-profit health organizations, and published annual reports on local epidemiology were used in the present study. When no data were available, specific at-risk populations were used to calculate frequencies of serious fungal diseases, using previously published epidemiological parameters. All data refer to the year 2016. The estimated number of serious fungal infections in Romanian population was 436,230 in 2016. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis accounted for up to 80% of total cases (more than 350,000 women annually). Concerning HIV-related infections, among 14,349 infected persons, Pneumocystis pneumonia occurred in about 10% of late presenters (30 cases in 2016), while cryptococcal meningitis was rarely diagnosed (less than 20 cases). Annually, the total number of oesophageal candidiasis and oral thrush cases in HIV-positive patients may have been as high as 1229 and 3066, respectively. In immunocompromised and cancer patient populations, the annual incidence of candidaemia was 295, and at least 458 invasive aspergillosis cases and 4 mucormycosis cases occurred yearly. With 4966 critical care beds and approximately 200,000 abdominal surgeries performed, the estimated annual incidence of candidaemia and Candida peritonitis was 689 and 344, respectively. The annual incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis is still high in Romania (12,747 cases). Thus, the prevalence of post-TB chronic pulmonary aspergillosis is estimated to be 8.98/100,000 (1768 cases). The prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma in adults is 6% and 6.5%, respectively. Therefore, allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis prevalence is estimated at 29,387 and severe asthma with fungal sensitisation at 38,731 cases annually. Not being on the list of reportable diseases, the number of patients presenting with severe mycoses in Romania can only be roughly estimated. Based on local reports and prevalence estimation, we consider that at least 2.23% of Romanians suffer from a serious form of fungal disease.

Fetal QRS detection and heart rate estimation: a wavelet-based approach.

PubMed

Almeida, Rute; Gonçalves, Hernâni; Bernardes, João; Rocha, Ana Paula

2014-08-01

Fetal heart rate monitoring is used for pregnancy surveillance in obstetric units all over the world but in spite of recent advances in analysis methods, there are still inherent technical limitations that bound its contribution to the improvement of perinatal indicators. In this work, a previously published wavelet transform based QRS detector, validated over standard electrocardiogram (ECG) databases, is adapted to fetal QRS detection over abdominal fetal ECG. Maternal ECG waves were first located using the original detector and afterwards a version with parameters adapted for fetal physiology was applied to detect fetal QRS, excluding signal singularities associated with maternal heartbeats. Single lead (SL) based marks were combined in a single annotator with post processing rules (SLR) from which fetal RR and fetal heart rate (FHR) measures can be computed. Data from PhysioNet with reference fetal QRS locations was considered for validation, with SLR outperforming SL including ICA based detections. The error in estimated FHR using SLR was lower than 20 bpm for more than 80% of the processed files. The median error in 1 min based FHR estimation was 0.13 bpm, with a correlation between reference and estimated FHR of 0.48, which increased to 0.73 when considering only records for which estimated FHR > 110 bpm. This allows us to conclude that the proposed methodology is able to provide a clinically useful estimation of the FHR.

An inexpensive light-scattering particle monitor: field validation

PubMed Central

Edwards, Rufus D.; Johnson, Michael; Shields, Kyra Naumoff; Allen, Tracy; Canuz, Eduardo; Smith, Kirk R.

2014-01-01

We have developed a small, light, passive, inexpensive, datalogging particle monitor called the “UCB” (University of California Berkeley particle monitor). Following previously published laboratory assessments, we present here results of tests of its performance in field settings at high particle concentrations. We demonstrate the mass sensitivity of the UCB in relation to gravimetric filter-based PM2.5 mass estimates as well as commercial light-scattering instruments co-located in field chamber tests and in kitchens of wood-burning households. The coefficient of variation of the unadjusted UCB mass response in relation to gravimetric estimates was 15%. Although requiring adjustment for differences in sensitivity, inter-monitor performance was consistently high (r2 > 0.99). Moreover, the UCB can consistently estimate PM2.5 mass concentrations in wood-burning kitchens (Pearson r2 = 0.89; N = 99), with good agreement between duplicate measures (Pearson r2 = 0.94; N = 88). In addition, with appropriate cleaning of the sensing chamber, UCB mass sensitivity does not decrease with time when used intensively in open woodfire kitchens, demonstrating the significant potential of this monitor. PMID:17909644

A model-based correction for outcome reporting bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Copas, John; Dwan, Kerry; Kirkham, Jamie; Williamson, Paula

2014-04-01

It is often suspected (or known) that outcomes published in medical trials are selectively reported. A systematic review for a particular outcome of interest can only include studies where that outcome was reported and so may omit, for example, a study that has considered several outcome measures but only reports those giving significant results. Using the methodology of the Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) in Trials study of (Kirkham and others, 2010. The impact of outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials on a cohort of systematic reviews. British Medical Journal 340, c365), we suggest a likelihood-based model for estimating the effect of ORB on confidence intervals and p-values in meta-analysis. Correcting for bias has the effect of moving estimated treatment effects toward the null and hence more cautious assessments of significance. The bias can be very substantial, sometimes sufficient to completely overturn previous claims of significance. We re-analyze two contrasting examples, and derive a simple fixed effects approximation that can be used to give an initial estimate of the effect of ORB in practice.

Probabilistic distance-based quantizer design for distributed estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yoon Hak

2016-12-01

We consider an iterative design of independently operating local quantizers at nodes that should cooperate without interaction to achieve application objectives for distributed estimation systems. We suggest as a new cost function a probabilistic distance between the posterior distribution and its quantized one expressed as the Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence. We first present the analysis that minimizing the KL divergence in the cyclic generalized Lloyd design framework is equivalent to maximizing the logarithmic quantized posterior distribution on the average which can be further computationally reduced in our iterative design. We propose an iterative design algorithm that seeks to maximize the simplified version of the posterior quantized distribution and discuss that our algorithm converges to a global optimum due to the convexity of the cost function and generates the most informative quantized measurements. We also provide an independent encoding technique that enables minimization of the cost function and can be efficiently simplified for a practical use of power-constrained nodes. We finally demonstrate through extensive experiments an obvious advantage of improved estimation performance as compared with the typical designs and the novel design techniques previously published.

Estimating gene gain and loss rates in the presence of error in genome assembly and annotation using CAFE 3.

PubMed

Han, Mira V; Thomas, Gregg W C; Lugo-Martinez, Jose; Hahn, Matthew W

2013-08-01

Current sequencing methods produce large amounts of data, but genome assemblies constructed from these data are often fragmented and incomplete. Incomplete and error-filled assemblies result in many annotation errors, especially in the number of genes present in a genome. This means that methods attempting to estimate rates of gene duplication and loss often will be misled by such errors and that rates of gene family evolution will be consistently overestimated. Here, we present a method that takes these errors into account, allowing one to accurately infer rates of gene gain and loss among genomes even with low assembly and annotation quality. The method is implemented in the newest version of the software package CAFE, along with several other novel features. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method with extensive simulations and reanalyze several previously published data sets. Our results show that errors in genome annotation do lead to higher inferred rates of gene gain and loss but that CAFE 3 sufficiently accounts for these errors to provide accurate estimates of important evolutionary parameters.

Humans, 'things' and space: costing hospital infection control interventions.

PubMed

Page, K; Graves, N; Halton, K; Barnett, A G

2013-07-01

Previous attempts at costing infection control programmes have tended to focus on accounting costs rather than economic costs. For studies using economic costs, estimates tend to be quite crude and probably underestimate the true cost. One of the largest costs of any intervention is staff time, but this cost is difficult to quantify and has been largely ignored in previous attempts. To design and evaluate the costs of hospital-based infection control interventions or programmes. This article also discusses several issues to consider when costing interventions, and suggests strategies for overcoming these issues. Previous literature and techniques in both health economics and psychology are reviewed and synthesized. This article provides a set of generic, transferable costing guidelines. Key principles such as definition of study scope and focus on large costs, as well as pitfalls (e.g. overconfidence and uncertainty), are discussed. These new guidelines can be used by hospital staff and other researchers to cost their infection control programmes and interventions more accurately. Copyright © 2013 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Administration costs of intravenous biologic drugs for rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Soini, Erkki J; Leussu, Miina; Hallinen, Taru

2013-01-01

Cost-effectiveness studies explicitly reporting infusion times, drug-specific administration costs for infusions or real-payer intravenous drug cost are few in number. Yet, administration costs for infusions are needed in the health economic evaluations assessing intravenously-administered drugs. To estimate the drug-specific administration and total cost of biologic intravenous rheumatoid arthritis (RA) drugs in the adult population and to compare the obtained costs with published cost estimates. Cost price data for the infusions and drugs were systematically collected from the 2011 Finnish price lists. All Finnish hospitals with available price lists were included. Drug administration and total costs (administration cost + drug price) per infusion were analysed separately from the public health care payer's perspective. Further adjustments for drug brand, dose, and hospital type were done using regression methods in order to improve the comparability between drugs. Annual expected drug administration and total costs were estimated. A literature search not limited to RA was performed to obtain the per infusion administration cost estimates used in publications. The published costs were converted to Finnish values using base-year purchasing power parities and indexing to the year 2011. Information from 19 (95%) health districts was obtained (107 analysable prices out of 176 observations). The average drug administration cost for infliximab, rituximab, abatacept, and tocilizumab infusion in RA were €355.91; €561.21; €334.00; and €293.96, respectively. The regression-adjusted (dose, hospital type; using semi-log ordinary least squares) mean administration costs for infliximab and rituximab infusions in RA were €289.12 (95% CI €222.61-375.48) and €542.28 (95% CI €307.23-957.09). The respective expected annual drug administration costs were €2312.96 for infliximab during the first year, €1879.28 for infliximab during the forthcoming years, and €1843.75 for rituximab. The obtained average administration costs per infusion were higher (1.8-3.3 times depending on the drug) than the previously published purchasing power adjusted and indexed average administration costs for infusions in RA. The administration costs of RA infusions vary between drugs, and more effort should be made to find realistic drug-specific estimates for cost-effectiveness evaluations. The frequent assumption of intravenous drug administration costs equalling outpatient visit cost can underestimate the costs.

Handling of thermal paper: Implications for dermal exposure to bisphenol A and its alternatives

PubMed Central

Bernier, Meghan R.

2017-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical used in a wide range of consumer products including photoactive dyes used in thermal paper. Recent studies have shown that dermal absorption of BPA can occur when handling these papers. Yet, regulatory agencies have largely dismissed thermal paper as a major source of BPA exposure. Exposure estimates provided by agencies such as the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) are based on assumptions about how humans interact with this material, stating that ‘typical’ exposures for adults involve only one handling per day for short periods of time (<1 minute), with limited exposure surfaces (three fingertips). The objective of this study was to determine how individuals handle thermal paper in one common setting: a cafeteria providing short-order meals. We observed thermal paper handling in a college-aged population (n = 698 subjects) at the University of Massachusetts’ dining facility. We find that in this setting, individuals handle receipts for an average of 11.5 min, that >30% of individuals hold thermal paper with more than three fingertips, and >60% allow the paper to touch their palm. Only 11% of the participants we observed were consistent with the EFSA model for time of contact and dermal surface area. Mathematical modeling based on handling times we measured and previously published transfer coefficients, concentrations of BPA in paper, and absorption factors indicate the most conservative estimated intake from handling thermal paper in this population is 51.1 ng/kg/day, similar to EFSA’s estimates of 59 ng/kg/day from dermal exposures. Less conservative estimates, using published data on concentrations in thermal paper and transfer rates to skin, indicate that exposures are likely significantly higher. Based on our observational data, we propose that the current models for estimating dermal BPA exposures are not consistent with normal human behavior and should be reevaluated. PMID:28570582

Handling of thermal paper: Implications for dermal exposure to bisphenol A and its alternatives.

PubMed

Bernier, Meghan R; Vandenberg, Laura N

2017-01-01

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical used in a wide range of consumer products including photoactive dyes used in thermal paper. Recent studies have shown that dermal absorption of BPA can occur when handling these papers. Yet, regulatory agencies have largely dismissed thermal paper as a major source of BPA exposure. Exposure estimates provided by agencies such as the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) are based on assumptions about how humans interact with this material, stating that 'typical' exposures for adults involve only one handling per day for short periods of time (<1 minute), with limited exposure surfaces (three fingertips). The objective of this study was to determine how individuals handle thermal paper in one common setting: a cafeteria providing short-order meals. We observed thermal paper handling in a college-aged population (n = 698 subjects) at the University of Massachusetts' dining facility. We find that in this setting, individuals handle receipts for an average of 11.5 min, that >30% of individuals hold thermal paper with more than three fingertips, and >60% allow the paper to touch their palm. Only 11% of the participants we observed were consistent with the EFSA model for time of contact and dermal surface area. Mathematical modeling based on handling times we measured and previously published transfer coefficients, concentrations of BPA in paper, and absorption factors indicate the most conservative estimated intake from handling thermal paper in this population is 51.1 ng/kg/day, similar to EFSA's estimates of 59 ng/kg/day from dermal exposures. Less conservative estimates, using published data on concentrations in thermal paper and transfer rates to skin, indicate that exposures are likely significantly higher. Based on our observational data, we propose that the current models for estimating dermal BPA exposures are not consistent with normal human behavior and should be reevaluated.

Preventing deaths and injuries from house fires: a cost-benefit analysis of a community-based smoke alarm installation programme.

PubMed

Yellman, Merissa A; Peterson, Cora; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Caton, Emily; Barnard, Jeffrey J; Padgett, Ted O; Florence, Curtis; Istre, Gregory R

2018-02-01

Operation Installation (OI), a community-based smoke alarm installation programme in Dallas, Texas, targets houses in high-risk urban census tracts. Residents of houses that received OI installation (or programme houses) had 68% fewer medically treated house fire injuries (non-fatal and fatal) compared with residents of non-programme houses over an average of 5.2 years of follow-up during an effectiveness evaluation conducted from 2001 to 2011. To estimate the cost-benefit of OI. A mathematical model incorporated programme cost and effectiveness data as directly observed in OI. The estimated cost per smoke alarm installed was based on a retrospective analysis of OI expenditures from administrative records, 2006-2011. Injury incidence assumptions for a population that had the OI programme compared with the same population without the OI programme was based on the previous OI effectiveness study, 2001-2011. Unit costs for medical care and lost productivity associated with fire injuries were from a national public database. From a combined payers' perspective limited to direct programme and medical costs, the estimated incremental cost per fire injury averted through the OI installation programme was $128,800 (2013 US$). When a conservative estimate of lost productivity among victims was included, the incremental cost per fire injury averted was negative, suggesting long-term cost savings from the programme. The OI programme from 2001 to 2011 resulted in an estimated net savings of $3.8 million, or a $3.21 return on investment for every dollar spent on the programme using a societal cost perspective. Community smoke alarm installation programmes could be cost-beneficial in high-fire-risk neighbourhoods. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Estimating contribution of anthocyanin pigments to osmotic adjustment during winter leaf reddening.

PubMed

Hughes, Nicole M; Carpenter, Kaylyn L; Cannon, Jonathan G

2013-01-15

The association between plant water stress and synthesis of red, anthocyanin pigments in leaves has led some plant biologists to propose an osmotic function of leaf reddening. According to this hypothesis, anthocyanins function as a solute in osmotic adjustment (OA), contributing to depression of osmotic potential (Ψ(π)) and maintenance of turgor pressure during drought-stressed conditions. Here we calculate the percent contribution of anthocyanin to leaf Ψ(π) during OA in two angiosperm evergreen species, Galax urceolata and Gaultheria procumbens. Both species exhibit dramatic leaf reddening under high light during winter, concomitant with declines in leaf water potential and accumulation of solutes. Data previously published by the authors on osmotic potential at full turgor (Ψ(π,100)) of G. urceolata and G. procumbens leaves before and after leaf reddening were used to estimate OA. In vivo molar concentrations of anthocyanin, glucose, fructose, and sucrose measured from the same individuals were converted to pressure equivalents using the Ideal Gas Law, and percent contribution to OA was estimated. Estimated mean OA during winter was -0.7MPa for G. urceolata and -0.8MPa for G. procumbens. In vivo concentrations of anthocyanin (3-10mM) were estimated to account for ∼2% of OA during winter, and comprised <0.7% of Ψ(π,100) in both species. Glucose, fructose, and sucrose combined accounted for roughly 50 and 80% of OA for G. urceolata and G. procumbens, respectively, and comprised ∼20% of Ψ(π,100). We observed that a co-occurring, acyanic species (Vinca minor) achieved similar OA without synthesizing anthocyanin. We conclude that anthocyanins represent a measurable, albeit meager, component of OA in red-leafed evergreen species during winter. However, due to their low concentrations, metabolic costliness relative to other osmolytes, and striking red color (unnecessary for an osmotic function), it is unlikely that they are synthesized solely for an osmoprotectant role. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Population models and simulation methods: The case of the Spearman rank correlation.

PubMed

Astivia, Oscar L Olvera; Zumbo, Bruno D

2017-11-01

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the importance of a population model in guiding the design and interpretation of simulation studies used to investigate the Spearman rank correlation. The Spearman rank correlation has been known for over a hundred years to applied researchers and methodologists alike and is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistics. Still, certain misconceptions can be found, either explicitly or implicitly, in the published literature because a population definition for this statistic is rarely discussed within the social and behavioural sciences. By relying on copula distribution theory, a population model is presented for the Spearman rank correlation, and its properties are explored both theoretically and in a simulation study. Through the use of the Iman-Conover algorithm (which allows the user to specify the rank correlation as a population parameter), simulation studies from previously published articles are explored, and it is found that many of the conclusions purported in them regarding the nature of the Spearman correlation would change if the data-generation mechanism better matched the simulation design. More specifically, issues such as small sample bias and lack of power of the t-test and r-to-z Fisher transformation disappear when the rank correlation is calculated from data sampled where the rank correlation is the population parameter. A proof for the consistency of the sample estimate of the rank correlation is shown as well as the flexibility of the copula model to encompass results previously published in the mathematical literature. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Retrospective analysis of natural products provides insights for future discovery trends

PubMed Central

Pye, Cameron R.; Bertin, Matthew J.; Lokey, R. Scott; Gerwick, William H.

2017-01-01

Understanding of the capacity of the natural world to produce secondary metabolites is important to a broad range of fields, including drug discovery, ecology, biosynthesis, and chemical biology, among others. Both the absolute number and the rate of discovery of natural products have increased significantly in recent years. However, there is a perception and concern that the fundamental novelty of these discoveries is decreasing relative to previously known natural products. This study presents a quantitative examination of the field from the perspective of both number of compounds and compound novelty using a dataset of all published microbial and marine-derived natural products. This analysis aimed to explore a number of key questions, such as how the rate of discovery of new natural products has changed over the past decades, how the average natural product structural novelty has changed as a function of time, whether exploring novel taxonomic space affords an advantage in terms of novel compound discovery, and whether it is possible to estimate how close we are to having described all of the chemical space covered by natural products. Our analyses demonstrate that most natural products being published today bear structural similarity to previously published compounds, and that the range of scaffolds readily accessible from nature is limited. However, the analysis also shows that the field continues to discover appreciable numbers of natural products with no structural precedent. Together, these results suggest that the development of innovative discovery methods will continue to yield compounds with unique structural and biological properties. PMID:28461474

Reference Accuracy among Research Articles Published in "Research on Social Work Practice"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilks, Scott E.; Geiger, Jennifer R.; Bates, Samantha M.; Wright, Amy L.

2017-01-01

Objective: The objective was to examine reference errors in research articles published in Research on Social Work Practice. High rates of reference errors in other top social work journals have been noted in previous studies. Methods: Via a sampling frame of 22,177 total references among 464 research articles published in the previous decade, a…

Occupational exposure to pesticides and prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lewis-Mikhael, Anne-Mary; Bueno-Cavanillas, Aurora; Ofir Giron, Talia; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan

2016-02-01

Epidemiological studies on exposure to pesticides and risk of prostate cancer (PC) provide inconsistent results. We aimed to explore various potential sources of heterogeneity not previously assessed and to derive updated risk estimates from homogenous studies. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus databases for case-control and cohort studies published from 1985 to April 2014. We assessed the quality of the articles using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Pooled estimates were calculated using random-effects models. Heterogeneity was explored using subset analyses and metaregression. Fifty-two studies were included in the review and 25 in the meta-analysis. No association was found between low exposure to pesticides and PC, but association was significant for high exposure, pooled OR 1.33 (1.02 to 1.63), I(2)=44.8%, p=0.024. Heterogeneity was explained by a number of variables including method used to assess exposure. Pooled OR was weak and non-significant for studies measuring serum pesticide level, 1.12 (0.74 to 1.50), I(2)=0.00%, p=0.966. For studies applying self-reporting of exposure, pooled estimate was 1.34 (0.91 to 1.77), I(2)=0.00%, p=0.493, while a high significant association was detected for grouped exposure assessment, 2.24 (1.36 to 3.11), I(2)=0.00%, p=0.955. In spite of a weak significant association detected when pooling ORs for high occupational exposure to pesticides, the magnitude of the association was related to the method of exposure assessment used by the original studies. A family history-pesticide exposure interaction was also observed for a number of pesticides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Predicting the impact of blocking human immunodeficiency virus type 1 Nef in vivo.

PubMed

Wick, W David; Gilbert, Peter B; Yang, Otto O

2009-03-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) Nef is a multifunctional protein that confers an ability to evade killing by cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) as well as other advantages to the virus in vivo. Here we exploited mathematical modeling and related statistical methods to estimate the impact of Nef activity on viral replication in vivo in relation to CTLs. Our results indicate that downregulation of major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) A and B by wild-type Nef confers an advantage to the virus of about 82% in decreased CTL killing efficiency on average, meaning that abolishing the MHC-I downregulation function of Nef would increase killing by more than fivefold. We incorporated this estimate, as well as prior estimates of replicative enhancement by Nef, into a previously published model of HIV-1 and CTLs in vivo (W. D. Wick, O. O. Yang, L. Corey, and S. G. Self, J. Virol. 79:13579-13586, 2005), generalized to permit CTL recognition of multiple epitopes. A sequence database analysis revealed that 92.9% of HIV-1 epitopes are A or B restricted, and a previous study found an average of about 19 epitopes recognized (M. M. Addo et al., J. Virol. 77:2081-2092, 2003). We combined these estimates in the model in order to predict the impact of inhibiting Nef function in the general (chronically infected) population by a drug. The predicted impact on viral load ranged from negligible to 2.4 orders of magnitude, depending on the effects of the drug and the CTL dynamical scenario assumed. We conclude that inhibiting Nef could make a substantial reduction in disease burden, lengthening the time before the necessity of undertaking combination therapy with other antiretroviral drugs.

Oxygen isotope fractionation between bird bone phosphate and drinking water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiot, Romain; Angst, Delphine; Legendre, Serge; Buffetaut, Eric; Fourel, François; Adolfssen, Jan; André, Aurore; Bojar, Ana Voica; Canoville, Aurore; Barral, Abel; Goedert, Jean; Halas, Stanislaw; Kusuhashi, Nao; Pestchevitskaya, Ekaterina; Rey, Kevin; Royer, Aurélien; Saraiva, Antônio Álamo Feitosa; Savary-Sismondini, Bérengère; Siméon, Jean-Luc; Touzeau, Alexandra; Zhou, Zhonghe; Lécuyer, Christophe

2017-06-01

Oxygen isotope compositions of bone phosphate (δ18Op) were measured in broiler chickens reared in 21 farms worldwide characterized by contrasted latitudes and local climates. These sedentary birds were raised during an approximately 3 to 4-month period, and local precipitation was the ultimate source of their drinking water. This sampling strategy allowed the relationship to be determined between the bone phosphate δ18Op values (from 9.8 to 22.5‰ V-SMOW) and the local rainfall δ18Ow values estimated from nearby IAEA/WMO stations (from -16.0 to -1.0‰ V-SMOW). Linear least square fitting of data provided the following isotopic fractionation equation: δ18Ow = 1.119 (±0.040) δ18Op - 24.222 (±0.644); R 2 = 0.98. The δ18Op-δ18Ow couples of five extant mallard ducks, a common buzzard, a European herring gull, a common ostrich, and a greater rhea fall within the predicted range of the equation, indicating that the relationship established for extant chickens can also be applied to birds of various ecologies and body masses. Applied to published oxygen isotope compositions of Miocene and Pliocene penguins from Peru, this new equation computes estimates of local seawater similar to those previously calculated. Applied to the basal bird Confuciusornis from the Early Cretaceous of Northeastern China, our equation gives a slightly higher δ18Ow value compared to the previously estimated one, possibly as a result of lower body temperature. These data indicate that caution should be exercised when the relationship estimated for modern birds is applied to their basal counterparts that likely had a metabolism intermediate between that of their theropod dinosaur ancestors and that of advanced ornithurines.

Respondent-Driven Sampling in a Multi-Site Study of Black and Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men.

PubMed

Murrill, Christopher S; Bingham, Trista; Lauby, Jennifer; Liu, Kai-Lih; Wheeler, Darrell; Carballo-Diéguez, Alex; Marks, Gary; Millett, Gregorio A

2016-02-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) was used to recruit four samples of Black and Latino men who have sex with men (MSM) in three metropolitan areas to measure HIV prevalence and sexual and drug use behaviors. We compared demographic and behavioral risk characteristics of participants across sites, assessed the extent to which the RDS statistical adjustment procedure provides estimates that differ from the crude results, and summarized our experiences using RDS. From June 2005 to March 2006 a total of 2,235 MSM were recruited and interviewed: 614 Black MSM and 516 Latino MSM in New York City, 540 Black MSM in Philadelphia, and 565 Latino MSM in Los Angeles County. Crude point estimates for demographic characteristics, behavioral risk factors and HIV prevalence were calculated for each of the four samples. RDS Analysis Tool was used to obtain population-based estimates of each sampled population's characteristics. RDS adjusted estimates were similar to the crude estimates for each study sample on demographic characteristics such as age, income, education and employment status. Adjusted estimates of the prevalence of risk behaviors were lower than the crude estimates, and for three of the study samples, the adjusted HIV prevalence estimates were lower than the crude estimates. However, even the adjusted HIV prevalence estimates were higher than what has been previously estimated for these groups of MSM in these cities. Each site faced unique circumstances in implementing RDS. Our experience in using RDS among Black and Latino MSM resulted in diverse recruitment patterns and uncertainties in the estimated HIV prevalence and risk behaviors by study site. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Nonmonotonic variation of seawater [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr across the Ivorian/Chadian boundary (Mississippian, Osagean): Evidence from marine cements within the Irish Waulsortian Limestone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Douthit, T.L.; Meyers, W.J.; Hanson, G.N.

1993-05-01

Detailed analysis of compositionally unaltered marine fibrous cements (MFC) from a single core through the Mississippian irish Waulsortian Limestone indicates that the variation of seawater [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr is nonmonotonic across the Ivorian-Chadian boundary. This nonmonotonic variation has not been recognized by previous studies. Furthermore, marine cement yielded [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr ratios lower than previously reported values for the Ivorian-Chadian (sagean). Marine fibrous cements are interpreted to be compositionally unaltered on the basis of nonluminescent character and stable isotope (C, O) composition comparable to previous estimates of Mississippian marine calcite. The isotope chemistry (C, O, Sr) and cathodoluminescent character ofmore » the marine fibrous cements therefore remained intact during their conversion from high-Mg calcite to low-Mg calcite + microdolomite, a conversion that probably took place in marine water during precipitation of Zone 1 calcite cement, the oldest non-MFC cement. High stratigraphic resolution was obtained by restricting the sample set to a single core, 429 m long, thereby eliminating chronostratigraphic correlation errors. The core is estimated to represent about 9.8 million years of Waulsortian Limestone deposition. The maximum rate of change in seawater [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr is [minus]0.00012/Ma, comparable in magnitude to Tertiary values. The authors data document the presence of fine-scale seawater [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr modulations for the Ivorian/Chadian, in contrast to the previously published monotonic seawater [sup 87]Sr/[sup 86]Sr curve for this interval, and emphasize the importance of well characterized intraformational isotopic baselines.« less

Occupations and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: are jobs exposed to the general public at higher risk?

PubMed

D'Ovidio, F; d'Errico, A; Calvo, A; Costa, G; Chiò, A

2017-08-01

Aim of this study was to assess whether previous employment in certain occupations could be a risk factor for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) incidence. This topic has been explored by several studies, but no risk factor has been firmly identified. The study population consisted of all subjects over 30 years old resident in Turin in 1996 who worked or were unemployed at 1991 Italian census (n = 284 406), followed up for ALS occurrence from 1996 to 2014. The risk of ALS was estimated in relation to the occupation held in 1991, using the Italian classification of occupations at the greatest detail. The association between occupations and ALS risk was estimated through Huber-White sandwich multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for age, gender, education and marital status. During the follow-up, 208 subjects developed ALS. ALS risk was significantly associated with previous employment as bank teller (IRR = 7.33), general practitioner (IRR = 4.61) and sales representative (IRR = 3.06). Categorizing all occupations as exposed or unexposed to direct contact with general public, it was found that previous employment in this group of occupations increased significantly ALS risk (IRR = 1.51), mainly driven by occupations in direct contact with customers (IRR = 1.79). The study results indicate that ALS risk may be increased by previous employment in occupations implying direct contact with the general public, in particular customers. A possible explanation of this finding, partly supported by the literature, is that workers in contact with the public could be more exposed to certain infections, which would increase their ALS risk. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Factors Associated with Trial of Labour and Mode of Delivery in Robson Group 5: A Select Group of Women With Previous Caesarean Section.

PubMed

Smithies, Mila; Woolcott, Christy G; Brock, Jo-Ann K; Maguire, Bryan; Allen, Victoria M

2018-06-01

To determine the proportion of women in Robson group 5 (RG5) who were eligible for a trial of labour after Caesarean (TOLAC) and, among eligible candidates, identify determinants of having a TOLAC and subsequent vaginal delivery (VD). This population-based cohort study used data derived from the Nova Scotia Atlee Perinatal Database. Deliveries from 1998-2014 to women in RG5 (≥1 previous CS with a singleton term cephalic fetus) were included. Eligibility for a TOLAC was based on SOGC criteria. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify characteristics independently associated with TOLAC and VD. The characteristics associated with VD were used in a logistic model to predict the theoretical probability of VD in women who did not have a TOLAC. Of the 15 111 deliveries in RG5, 75.3% were by CS. Of the 14 763 eligible women, 5488 (37.2%) had a TOLAC, of which 3739 (68.1%) resulted in VD. Predictors of VD included high area-level income and either a CS without labour or a spontaneous VD in the preceding pregnancy. While mode of previous delivery also predicted TOLAC among eligible women, high area-level income was associated with reduced odds of TOLAC. The probability of VD in women who did not undergo TOLAC was estimated to be 47.1%, and the lowest CS rate attainable in RG5 was estimated at 46.3%. Sociodemographic factors such as income and previous mode of delivery were associated with the rates of TOLAC and subsequent VD in eligible women, and suggest that the Caesarean section rate in RG5 could be safely reduced. Copyright © 2018 Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of polygenic scores for predicting phobic anxiety.

PubMed

Walter, Stefan; Glymour, M Maria; Koenen, Karestan; Liang, Liming; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Cornelis, Marilyn; Chang, Shun-Chiao; Rimm, Eric; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kubzansky, Laura D

2013-01-01

Anxiety disorders are common, with a lifetime prevalence of 20% in the U.S., and are responsible for substantial burdens of disability, missed work days and health care utilization. To date, no causal genetic variants have been identified for anxiety, anxiety disorders, or related traits. To investigate whether a phobic anxiety symptom score was associated with 3 alternative polygenic risk scores, derived from external genome-wide association studies of anxiety, an internally estimated agnostic polygenic score, or previously identified candidate genes. Longitudinal follow-up study. Using linear and logistic regression we investigated whether phobic anxiety was associated with polygenic risk scores derived from internal, leave-one out genome-wide association studies, from 31 candidate genes, and from out-of-sample genome-wide association weights previously shown to predict depression and anxiety in another cohort. Study participants (n = 11,127) were individuals from the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Anxiety symptoms were assessed via the 8-item phobic anxiety scale of the Crown Crisp Index at two time points, from which a continuous phenotype score was derived. We found no genome-wide significant associations with phobic anxiety. Phobic anxiety was also not associated with a polygenic risk score derived from the genome-wide association study beta weights using liberal p-value thresholds; with a previously published genome-wide polygenic score; or with a candidate gene risk score based on 31 genes previously hypothesized to predict anxiety. There is a substantial gap between twin-study heritability estimates of anxiety disorders ranging between 20-40% and heritability explained by genome-wide association results. New approaches such as improved genome imputations, application of gene expression and biological pathways information, and incorporating social or environmental modifiers of genetic risks may be necessary to identify significant genetic predictors of anxiety.

Effects of Model Choice and Forest Structure on Inventory-Based Estimations of Puerto Rican Forest Biomass.

Treesearch

THOMAS J. BRANDEIS; MARIA DEL ROCIO SUAREZ ROZO

2005-01-01

Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

Effects of model choice and forest structure on inventory-based estimations of Puerto Rican forest biomass

Treesearch

Thomas J. Brandeis; Maria Del Rocio; Suarez Rozo

2005-01-01

Total aboveground live tree biomass in Puerto Rican lower montane wet, subtropical wet, subtropical moist and subtropical dry forests was estimated using data from two forest inventories and published regression equations. Multiple potentially-applicable published biomass models existed for some forested life zones, and their estimates tended to diverge with increasing...

SU-D-209-02: Percent Depth Dose Curves for Fluoroscopic X-Ray Beam Qualities Incorporating Copper Filtration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wunderle, K; Wayne State University School of Medicine, Detroit, MI; Godley, A

Purpose: The purpose of this investigation was to quantify percent depth dose (PDD) curves for fluoroscopic x-ray beam qualities incorporating added copper filtration. Methods: A PTW (Freiburg, Germany) MP3 water tank was used with a Standard Imaging (Middleton, WI) Exradin Model 11 Spokas Chamber to measure PDD curves for 60, 80, 100 and 120 kVp x-ray beams with copper filtration ranging from 0.0–0.9 mm at 22cm and 42cm fields of view from 0 to 150 mm of water. A free-in-air monitor chamber was used to normalize the water tank data to fluctuations in output from the fluoroscope. The measurements weremore » acquired on a Siemens (Erlangen, Germany) Artis ZeeGo fluoroscope. The fluoroscope was inverted from the typical orientation providing an x-ray beam originating from above the water tank. The water tank was positioned so that the water level was located at 60cm from the focal spot; which also represents the focal spot to interventional reference plane distance for that fluoroscope. Results: PDDs for 60, 80, 100, and 120 kVp with 0 mm of copper filtration compared well to previously published data by Fetterly et al. [Med Phys, 28, 205 (2001)] for those beam qualities given differences in fluoroscopes, geometric orientation, type of ionization chamber, and the water tank used for data collection. PDDs for 60, 80, 100, and 120 kVp with copper filtration were obtained and are presented, which have not been previously investigated and published. Conclusion: The equipment and processes used to acquire the reported data were sound and compared well with previously published data for PDDs without copper filtration. PDD data for the fluoroscopic x-ray beams incorporating copper filtration can be used as reference data for estimating organ or soft tissue dose at depth involving similar beam qualities or for comparison with mathematical models.« less

The VLT/NaCo large program to probe the occurrence of exoplanets and brown dwarfs at wide orbits. IV. Gravitational instability rarely forms wide, giant planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vigan, A.; Bonavita, M.; Biller, B.; Forgan, D.; Rice, K.; Chauvin, G.; Desidera, S.; Meunier, J.-C.; Delorme, P.; Schlieder, J. E.; Bonnefoy, M.; Carson, J.; Covino, E.; Hagelberg, J.; Henning, T.; Janson, M.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Quanz, S. P.; Zurlo, A.; Beuzit, J.-L.; Boccaletti, A.; Buenzli, E.; Feldt, M.; Girard, J. H. V.; Gratton, R.; Kasper, M.; Le Coroller, H.; Mesa, D.; Messina, S.; Meyer, M.; Montagnier, G.; Mordasini, C.; Mouillet, D.; Moutou, C.; Reggiani, M.; Segransan, D.; Thalmann, C.

2017-06-01

Understanding the formation and evolution of giant planets (≥1 MJup) at wide orbital separation (≥5 AU) is one of the goals of direct imaging. Over the past 15 yr, many surveys have placed strong constraints on the occurrence rate of wide-orbit giants, mostly based on non-detections, but very few have tried to make a direct link with planet formation theories. In the present work, we combine the results of our previously published VLT/NaCo large program with the results of 12 past imaging surveys to constitute a statistical sample of 199 FGK stars within 100 pc, including three stars with sub-stellar companions. Using Monte Carlo simulations and assuming linear flat distributions for the mass and semi-major axis of planets, we estimate the sub-stellar companion frequency to be within 0.75-5.70% at the 68% confidence level (CL) within 20-300 AU and 0.5-75 MJup, which is compatible with previously published results. We also compare our results with the predictions of state-of-the-art population synthesis models based on the gravitational instability (GI) formation scenario with and without scattering. We estimate that in both the scattered and non-scattered populations, we would be able to detect more than 30% of companions in the 1-75 MJup range (95% CL). With the threesub-stellar detections in our sample, we estimate the fraction of stars that host a planetary system formed by GI to be within 1.0-8.6% (95% CL). We also conclude that even though GI is not common, it predicts a mass distribution of wide-orbit massive companions that is much closer to what is observed than what the core accretion scenario predicts. Finally, we associate the present paper with the release of the Direct Imaging Virtual Archive (DIVA), a public database that aims at gathering the results of past, present, and future direct imaging surveys. Based on observations collected at the European Southern Observatory, Chile (ESO Large Program 184.C-0157 and Open Time 089.C-0137A and 090.C-0252A).

The geochemical evolution of riparian ground water in a forested piedmont catchment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; Plummer, Niel; McDonnell, Jeffrey J.; Busenberg, Eurybiades; Casile, Gerolamo C.; Kendall, Carol; Hooper, Richard P.; Freer, James E.; Peters, Norman E.; Beven, Keith; Schlosser, Peter

2003-01-01

The principal weathering reactions and their rates in riparian ground water were determined at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed (PMRW) near Atlanta, Georgia. Concentrations of major solutes were measured in ground water samples from 19 shallow wells completed in the riparian (saprolite) aquifer and in one borehole completed in granite, and the apparent age of each sample was calculated from chloroflourocarbons and tritium/helium-3 data. Concentrations of SiO2, Na+, and Ca2+ generally increased downvalley and were highest in the borehole near the watershed outlet. Strong positive correlations were found between the concentrations of these solutes and the apparent age of ground water that was modern (zero to one year) in the headwaters, six to seven years midway down the valley, and 26 to 27 years in the borehole, located ∼500 m downstream from the headwaters. Mass-balance modeling of chemical evolution showed that the downstream changes in ground water chemistry could be largely explained by weathering of plagioclase to kaolinite, with possible contributions from weathering of K-feldspar, biotite, hornblende, and calcite. The in situ rates of weathering reactions were estimated by combining the ground water age dates with geochemical mass-balance modeling results. The weathering rate was highest for plagioclase (∼6.4 μmol/L/year), but could not be easily compared with most other published results for feldspar weathering at PMRW and elsewhere because the mineral-surface area to which ground water was exposed during geochemical evolution could not be estimated. However, a preliminary estimate of the mineral-surface area that would have contacted the ground water to provide the observed solute concentrations suggests that the plagioclase weathering rate calculated in this study is similar to the rate calculated in a previous study at PMRW, and three to four orders of magnitude slower than those published in previous laboratory studies of feldspar weathering. An accurate model of the geochemical evolution of riparian ground water is necessary to accurately model the geochemical evolution of stream water at PMRW.

Saturnʼs Inner Satellites: Orbits, Masses, and the Chaotic Motion of Atlas from New Cassini Imaging Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, N. J.; Renner, S.; Murray, C. D.; Evans, M. W.

2015-01-01

We present numerically derived orbits and mass estimates for the inner Saturnian satellites, Atlas, Prometheus, Pandora, Janus, and Epimetheus from a fit to 2580 new Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem astrometric observations spanning 2004 February to 2013 August. The observations are provided as machine-readable and Virtual Observatory tables. We estimate G{{M}Atlas} = (0.384 ± 0.001) × 10-3 km3 s-2, a value 13% smaller than the previously published estimate but with an order of magnitude reduction in the uncertainty. We also find G{{M}Prometheus} = (10.677 ± 0.006) × 10-3 km3 s-2, G{{M}Pandora} = (9.133 ± 0.009) × 10-3 km3 s-2, G{{M}Janus} = (126.51 ± 0.03) × 10-3 km3 s-2, and G{{M}Epimetheus} = (35.110 ± 0.009) × 10-3 km3 s-2, consistent with previously published values, but also with significant reductions in uncertainties. We show that Atlas is currently librating in both the 54:53 co-rotation-eccentricity resonance (CER) and the 54:53 inner Lindblad (ILR) resonance with Prometheus, making it the latest example of a coupled CER-ILR system, in common with the Saturnian satellites Anthe, Aegaeon, and Methone, and possibly Neptune's ring arcs. We further demonstrate that Atlas's orbit is chaotic, with a Lyapunov time of ˜10 years, and show that its chaotic behavior is a direct consequence of the coupled resonant interaction with Prometheus, rather than being an indirect effect of the known chaotic interaction between Prometheus and Pandora. We provide an updated analysis of the second-order resonant perturbations involving Prometheus, Pandora, and Epimetheus based on the new observations, showing that these resonant arguments are librating only when Epimetheus is the innermost of the co-orbital pair, Janus and Epimetheus. We also find evidence that the known chaotic changes in the orbits of Prometheus and Pandora are not confined to times of apse anti-alignment.

Home safety assessment and modification to reduce injurious falls in community-dwelling older adults: cost-utility and equity analysis.

PubMed

Pega, Frank; Kvizhinadze, Giorgi; Blakely, Tony; Atkinson, June; Wilson, Nick

2016-12-01

This study aimed to improve on previous modelling work to determine the health gain, cost-utility and health equity impacts from home safety assessment and modification (HSAM) for reducing injurious falls in older people. The model was a Markov macrosimulation one that estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. The setting was a country with detailed epidemiological and cost data (New Zealand (NZ)) for 2011. A health system perspective was taken and a discount rate of 3% was used (for both health gain and costs). Intervention effectiveness estimates came from a Cochrane systematic review and NZ-specific intervention costs were from a randomised controlled trial. In the 65 years and above age group, the HSAM programme cost a total of US$98 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) US$65 to US$139 million) to implement nationally and the accrued net health system costs were US$74 million (95% UI: cost saving to US$132 million). Health gains were 34 000 QALYs (95% UI: 5000 to 65 000). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was US$6000 (95% UI: cost saving to US$13 000), suggesting that HSAM is highly cost-effective. Targeting HSAM only to older people with previous injurious falls and to older people aged 75 years and above were also cost-effective (ICERs=US$1000 and US$11 000, respectively). There was no evidence for differential cost-effectiveness by gender or by ethnicity (Indigenous New Zealanders: Māori vs non-Māori). As per other studies, this modelling study indicates that the provision of an HSAM intervention produces considerable health gain and is highly cost-effective among older people. Targeting this intervention to older people with previous injurious falls is a promising initial approach before any scale up. ACTRN12609000779279. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Precise visual navigation using multi-stereo vision and landmark matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Zhiwei; Oskiper, Taragay; Samarasekera, Supun; Kumar, Rakesh

2007-04-01

Traditional vision-based navigation system often drifts over time during navigation. In this paper, we propose a set of techniques which greatly reduce the long term drift and also improve its robustness to many failure conditions. In our approach, two pairs of stereo cameras are integrated to form a forward/backward multi-stereo camera system. As a result, the Field-Of-View of the system is extended significantly to capture more natural landmarks from the scene. This helps to increase the pose estimation accuracy as well as reduce the failure situations. Secondly, a global landmark matching technique is used to recognize the previously visited locations during navigation. Using the matched landmarks, a pose correction technique is used to eliminate the accumulated navigation drift. Finally, in order to further improve the robustness of the system, measurements from low-cost Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and Global Positioning System (GPS) sensors are integrated with the visual odometry in an extended Kalman Filtering framework. Our system is significantly more accurate and robust than previously published techniques (1~5% localization error) over long-distance navigation both indoors and outdoors. Real world experiments on a human worn system show that the location can be estimated within 1 meter over 500 meters (around 0.1% localization error averagely) without the use of GPS information.

Obtaining reliable phase-gradient delays from otoacoustic emission data.

PubMed

Shera, Christopher A; Bergevin, Christopher

2012-08-01

Reflection-source otoacoustic emission phase-gradient delays are widely used to obtain noninvasive estimates of cochlear function and properties, such as the sharpness of mechanical tuning and its variation along the length of the cochlear partition. Although different data-processing strategies are known to yield different delay estimates and trends, their relative reliability has not been established. This paper uses in silico experiments to evaluate six methods for extracting delay trends from reflection-source otoacoustic emissions (OAEs). The six methods include both previously published procedures (e.g., phase smoothing, energy-weighting, data exclusion based on signal-to-noise ratio) and novel strategies (e.g., peak-picking, all-pass factorization). Although some of the methods perform well (e.g., peak-picking), others introduce substantial bias (e.g., phase smoothing) and are not recommended. In addition, since standing waves caused by multiple internal reflection can complicate the interpretation and compromise the application of OAE delays, this paper develops and evaluates two promising signal-processing strategies, the first based on time-frequency filtering using the continuous wavelet transform and the second on cepstral analysis, for separating the direct emission from its subsequent reflections. Altogether, the results help to resolve previous disagreements about the frequency dependence of human OAE delays and the sharpness of cochlear tuning while providing useful analysis methods for future studies.

Segmentation of cortical bone using fast level sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Manish; Jörgens, Daniel; Wang, Chunliang; Smedby, Årjan; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-02-01

Cortical bone plays a big role in the mechanical competence of bone. The analysis of cortical bone requires accurate segmentation methods. Level set methods are usually in the state-of-the-art for segmenting medical images. However, traditional implementations of this method are computationally expensive. This drawback was recently tackled through the so-called coherent propagation extension of the classical algorithm which has decreased computation times dramatically. In this study, we assess the potential of this technique for segmenting cortical bone in interactive time in 3D images acquired through High Resolution peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography (HR-pQCT). The obtained segmentations are used to estimate cortical thickness and cortical porosity of the investigated images. Cortical thickness and Cortical porosity is computed using sphere fitting and mathematical morphological operations respectively. Qualitative comparison between the segmentations of our proposed algorithm and a previously published approach on six images volumes reveals superior smoothness properties of the level set approach. While the proposed method yields similar results to previous approaches in regions where the boundary between trabecular and cortical bone is well defined, it yields more stable segmentations in challenging regions. This results in more stable estimation of parameters of cortical bone. The proposed technique takes few seconds to compute, which makes it suitable for clinical settings.

Investigating Time Lags and Attribution in the Translation of Cancer Research: A Case Study Approach.

PubMed

Guthrie, Susan; Pollitt, Alexandra; Hanney, Stephen; Grant, Jonathan

2014-01-01

In 2012, RAND Europe and the Health Economics Research Group (Brunel University) were commissioned by the Wellcome Trust, Cancer Research UK, the National Institute for Health Research and the Academy of Medical Science to conduct a study of the returns to the public/charitable investment in cancer-related research. This study built on previous work published in the 2008 "What's it worth?" report that estimated the economic returns to medical research in terms of spillover benefits and health gain. The 2008 study was extensively quoted and cited as a clear justification for the economic importance of medical research and appears to have played a role in achieving the protection of the medical science budget in the recent public expenditure cuts. This cancer study used a similar approach to that used in the previous study, but with some methodological developments. One of the methodological developments was the inclusion of case studies to examine the validity and variability of the estimates on elapsed time between funding and health gains, and the amount of health gains that can be attributed to UK research. This study provides the full text of the five case studies conducted as well as some discussion of observations emerging across the case study set.

Contour plot assessment of existing meta-analyses confirms robust association of statin use and acute kidney injury risk.

PubMed

Chevance, Aurélie; Schuster, Tibor; Steele, Russell; Ternès, Nils; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-01

Robustness of an existing meta-analysis can justify decisions on whether to conduct an additional study addressing the same research question. We illustrate the graphical assessment of the potential impact of an additional study on an existing meta-analysis using published data on statin use and the risk of acute kidney injury. A previously proposed graphical augmentation approach is used to assess the sensitivity of the current test and heterogeneity statistics extracted from existing meta-analysis data. In addition, we extended the graphical augmentation approach to assess potential changes in the pooled effect estimate after updating a current meta-analysis and applied the three graphical contour definitions to data from meta-analyses on statin use and acute kidney injury risk. In the considered example data, the pooled effect estimates and heterogeneity indices demonstrated to be considerably robust to the addition of a future study. Supportingly, for some previously inconclusive meta-analyses, a study update might yield statistically significant kidney injury risk increase associated with higher statin exposure. The illustrated contour approach should become a standard tool for the assessment of the robustness of meta-analyses. It can guide decisions on whether to conduct additional studies addressing a relevant research question. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the decline in excess risk of cerebrovascular disease following quitting smoking--a systematic review based on the negative exponential model.

PubMed

Lee, Peter N; Fry, John S; Thornton, Alison J

2014-02-01

We attempted to quantify the decline in stroke risk following quitting using the negative exponential model, with methodology previously employed for IHD. We identified 22 blocks of RRs (from 13 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls/at risk formed the data for model-fitting. We tried to estimate the half-life (H, time since quit when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block. The method failed to converge or produced very variable estimates of H in nine blocks with a current smoker RR <1.40. Rejecting these, and combining blocks by amount smoked in one study where problems arose in model-fitting, the final analyses used 11 blocks. Goodness-of-fit was adequate for each block, the combined estimate of H being 4.78(95%CI 2.17-10.50) years. However, considerable heterogeneity existed, unexplained by any factor studied, with the random-effects estimate 3.08(1.32-7.16). Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation or differing assumed times for the final quitting period gave similar results. The estimates of H are similar for stroke and IHD, and the individual estimates similarly heterogeneous. Fitting the model is harder for stroke, due to its weaker association with smoking. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A time-lapse photography method for monitoring salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) passage and abundance in streams

PubMed Central

Leacock, William B.; Eby, Lisa A.; Stanford, Jack A.

2016-01-01

Accurately estimating population sizes is often a critical component of fisheries research and management. Although there is a growing appreciation of the importance of small-scale salmon population dynamics to the stability of salmon stock-complexes, our understanding of these populations is constrained by a lack of efficient and cost-effective monitoring tools for streams. Weirs are expensive, labor intensive, and can disrupt natural fish movements. While conventional video systems avoid some of these shortcomings, they are expensive and require excessive amounts of labor to review footage for data collection. Here, we present a novel method for quantifying salmon in small streams (<15 m wide, <1 m deep) that uses both time-lapse photography and video in a model-based double sampling scheme. This method produces an escapement estimate nearly as accurate as a video-only approach, but with substantially less labor, money, and effort. It requires servicing only every 14 days, detects salmon 24 h/day, is inexpensive, and produces escapement estimates with confidence intervals. In addition to escapement estimation, we present a method for estimating in-stream salmon abundance across time, data needed by researchers interested in predator--prey interactions or nutrient subsidies. We combined daily salmon passage estimates with stream specific estimates of daily mortality developed using previously published data. To demonstrate proof of concept for these methods, we present results from two streams in southwest Kodiak Island, Alaska in which high densities of sockeye salmon spawn. PMID:27326378

A framework for the meta-analysis of Bland-Altman studies based on a limits of agreement approach.

PubMed

Tipton, Elizabeth; Shuster, Jonathan

2017-10-15

Bland-Altman method comparison studies are common in the medical sciences and are used to compare a new measure to a gold-standard (often costlier or more invasive) measure. The distribution of these differences is summarized by two statistics, the 'bias' and standard deviation, and these measures are combined to provide estimates of the limits of agreement (LoA). When these LoA are within the bounds of clinically insignificant differences, the new non-invasive measure is preferred. Very often, multiple Bland-Altman studies have been conducted comparing the same two measures, and random-effects meta-analysis provides a means to pool these estimates. We provide a framework for the meta-analysis of Bland-Altman studies, including methods for estimating the LoA and measures of uncertainty (i.e., confidence intervals). Importantly, these LoA are likely to be wider than those typically reported in Bland-Altman meta-analyses. Frequently, Bland-Altman studies report results based on repeated measures designs but do not properly adjust for this design in the analysis. Meta-analyses of Bland-Altman studies frequently exclude these studies for this reason. We provide a meta-analytic approach that allows inclusion of estimates from these studies. This includes adjustments to the estimate of the standard deviation and a method for pooling the estimates based upon robust variance estimation. An example is included based on a previously published meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A New Multi-Basin Calibration for Estimating Paleo-Temperature Using Mg/Ca from Tests of Neogloboquadrina dutertrei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, M. S.; Hertzberg, J. E.; Mekik, F.; Schmidt, M. W.

2017-12-01

Based on the thermodynamics of solid-solution substitution of Mg for Ca in biogenic calcite, magnesium to calcium ratios in planktonic foraminifera have been proposed as a means by which variations in habitat water temperatures can be reconstructed. Doing this accurately has been a problem, however, as we demonstrate that various calibration equations provide disparate temperature estimates from the same Mg/Ca dataset. We examined both new and published data to derive a globally applicable temperature-Mg/Ca relationship and from this relationship to accurately predict habitat depth for Neogloboquadrina dutertrei - a deep chlorophyll maximum dweller. N. dutertrei samples collected from Atlantic core tops were analyzed for trace element compositions at Texas A&M University, and the measured Mg/Ca ratios were used to predict habitat temperatures using multiple pre-existing calibration equations. When combining Atlantic and previously published Pacific Mg/Ca datasets for N. dutertrei, a notable dissolution effect was evident. To overcome this issue, we used the G. menardii Fragmentation Index (MFI) to account for dissolution and generated a multi-basin temperature equation using multiple linear regression to predict habitat temperature. However, the correlations between Mg/Ca and temperature, as well as the calculated MFI percent dissolved, suggest that N. dutertrei Mg/Ca ratios are affected equally by both variables. While correcting for dissolution makes habitat depth estimation more accurate, the lack of a definitively strong correlation between Mg/Ca and temperature is likely an effect of variable habitat depth for this species because most calibration equations have assumed a uniform habitat depth for this taxon.

The importance of correcting for signal drift in diffusion MRI.

PubMed

Vos, Sjoerd B; Tax, Chantal M W; Luijten, Peter R; Ourselin, Sebastien; Leemans, Alexander; Froeling, Martijn

2017-01-01

To investigate previously unreported effects of signal drift as a result of temporal scanner instability on diffusion MRI data analysis and to propose a method to correct this signal drift. We investigated the signal magnitude of non-diffusion-weighted EPI volumes in a series of diffusion-weighted imaging experiments to determine whether signal magnitude changes over time. Different scan protocols and scanners from multiple vendors were used to verify this on phantom data, and the effects on diffusion kurtosis tensor estimation in phantom and in vivo data were quantified. Scalar metrics (eigenvalues, fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity, mean kurtosis) and directional information (first eigenvectors and tractography) were investigated. Signal drift, a global signal decrease with subsequently acquired images in the scan, was observed in phantom data on all three scanners, with varying magnitudes up to 5% in a 15-min scan. The signal drift has a noticeable effect on the estimation of diffusion parameters. All investigated quantitative parameters as well as tractography were affected by this artifactual signal decrease during the scan. By interspersing the non-diffusion-weighted images throughout the session, the signal decrease can be estimated and compensated for before data analysis; minimizing the detrimental effects on subsequent MRI analyses. Magn Reson Med 77:285-299, 2017. © 2016 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 The Authors Magnetic Resonance in Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Complex refractive index measurements for BaF 2 and CaF 2 via single-angle infrared reflectance spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelly-Gorham, Molly Rose K.; DeVetter, Brent M.; Brauer, Carolyn S.

We have re-investigated the optical constants n and k for the homologous series of inorganic salts barium fluoride (BaF2) and calcium fluoride (CaF2) using a single-angle near-normal incidence reflectance device in combination with a calibrated Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer. Our results are in good qualitative agreement with most previous works. However, certain features of the previously published data near the reststrahlen band exhibit distinct differences in spectral characteristics. Notably, our measurements of BaF2 do not include a spectral feature in the ~250 cm-1 reststrahlen band that was previously published. Additionally, CaF2 exhibits a distinct wavelength shift relative to themore » model derived from previously published data. We confirmed our results with recently published works that use significantly more modern instrumentation and data reduction techniques« less

Dynamic estimator for determining operating conditions in an internal combustion engine

DOEpatents

Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

2016-01-05

Methods and systems are provided for estimating engine performance information for a combustion cycle of an internal combustion engine. Estimated performance information for a previous combustion cycle is retrieved from memory. The estimated performance information includes an estimated value of at least one engine performance variable. Actuator settings applied to engine actuators are also received. The performance information for the current combustion cycle is then estimated based, at least in part, on the estimated performance information for the previous combustion cycle and the actuator settings applied during the previous combustion cycle. The estimated performance information for the current combustion cycle is then stored to the memory to be used in estimating performance information for a subsequent combustion cycle.

Low-flow frequency and flow duration of selected South Carolina streams in the Savannah and Salkehatchie River Basins through March 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feaster, Toby D.; Guimaraes, Wladmir B.

2016-07-14

An ongoing understanding of streamflow characteristics of the rivers and streams in South Carolina is important for the protection and preservation of the State’s water resources. Information concerning the low-flow characteristics of streams is especially important during critical flow periods, such as during the historic droughts that South Carolina has experienced in the past few decades.In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, initiated a study to update low-flow statistics at continuous-record streamgaging stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in South Carolina. This report presents the low-flow statistics for 28 selected streamgaging stations in the Savannah and Salkehatchie River Basins in South Carolina. The low-flow statistics include daily mean flow durations for the 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 75-, 90-, and 95-percent probability of exceedance and the annual minimum 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day mean flows with recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 50 years, depending on the length of record available at the streamgaging station. The low-flow statistics were computed from records available through March 31, 2014.Low-flow statistics are influenced by length of record, hydrologic regime under which the data were collected, analytical techniques used, and other factors, such as urbanization, diversions, and droughts that may have occurred in the basin. To assess changes in the low-flow statistics from the previously published values, a comparison of the low-flow statistics for the annual minimum 7-day average streamflow with a 10-year recurrence interval (7Q10) from this study was made with the most recently published values. Of the 28 streamgaging stations for which recurrence interval computations were made, 14 streamgaging stations were suitable for comparing to low-flow statistics that were previously published in U.S. Geological Survey reports. These comparisons indicated that seven of the streamgaging stations had values lower than the previous values, two streamgaging stations had values higher than the previous values, and two streamgaging stations had values that were unchanged from previous values. The remaining three stations for which previous 7Q10 values were computed, which are located on the main stem of the Savannah River, were not compared with current estimates because of differences in the way the pre-regulation and regulated flow data were analyzed.

Anatomy of open access publishing: a study of longitudinal development and internal structure

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Open access (OA) is a revolutionary way of providing access to the scholarly journal literature made possible by the Internet. The primary aim of this study was to measure the volume of scientific articles published in full immediate OA journals from 2000 to 2011, while observing longitudinal internal shifts in the structure of OA publishing concerning revenue models, publisher types and relative distribution among scientific disciplines. The secondary aim was to measure the share of OA articles of all journal articles, including articles made OA by publishers with a delay and individual author-paid OA articles in subscription journals (hybrid OA), as these subsets of OA publishing have mostly been ignored in previous studies. Methods Stratified random sampling of journals in the Directory of Open Access Journals (n = 787) was performed. The annual publication volumes spanning 2000 to 2011 were retrieved from major publication indexes and through manual data collection. Results An estimated 340,000 articles were published by 6,713 full immediate OA journals during 2011. OA journals requiring article-processing charges have become increasingly common, publishing 166,700 articles in 2011 (49% of all OA articles). This growth is related to the growth of commercial publishers, who, despite only a marginal presence a decade ago, have grown to become key actors on the OA scene, responsible for 120,000 of the articles published in 2011. Publication volume has grown within all major scientific disciplines, however, biomedicine has seen a particularly rapid 16-fold growth between 2000 (7,400 articles) and 2011 (120,900 articles). Over the past decade, OA journal publishing has steadily increased its relative share of all scholarly journal articles by about 1% annually. Approximately 17% of the 1.66 million articles published during 2011 and indexed in the most comprehensive article-level index of scholarly articles (Scopus) are available OA through journal publishers, most articles immediately (12%) but some within 12 months of publication (5%). Conclusions OA journal publishing is disrupting the dominant subscription-based model of scientific publishing, having rapidly grown in relative annual share of published journal articles during the last decade. PMID:23088823

INEEL Subregional Conceptual Model Report Volume 3: Summary of Existing Knowledge of Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on the Release of Contaminants to the Subsurface Environment from Waste Source Terms at the INEEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Paul L. Wichlacz

2003-09-01

This source-term summary document is intended to describe the current understanding of contaminant source terms and the conceptual model for potential source-term release to the environment at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), as presented in published INEEL reports. The document presents a generalized conceptual model of the sources of contamination and describes the general categories of source terms, primary waste forms, and factors that affect the release of contaminants from the waste form into the vadose zone and Snake River Plain Aquifer. Where the information has previously been published and is readily available, summaries of the inventorymore » of contaminants are also included. Uncertainties that affect the estimation of the source term release are also discussed where they have been identified by the Source Term Technical Advisory Group. Areas in which additional information are needed (i.e., research needs) are also identified.« less

Automation process for morphometric analysis of volumetric CT data from pulmonary vasculature in rats.

PubMed

Shingrani, Rahul; Krenz, Gary; Molthen, Robert

2010-01-01

With advances in medical imaging scanners, it has become commonplace to generate large multidimensional datasets. These datasets require tools for a rapid, thorough analysis. To address this need, we have developed an automated algorithm for morphometric analysis incorporating A Visualization Workshop computational and image processing libraries for three-dimensional segmentation, vascular tree generation and structural hierarchical ordering with a two-stage numeric optimization procedure for estimating vessel diameters. We combine this new technique with our mathematical models of pulmonary vascular morphology to quantify structural and functional attributes of lung arterial trees. Our physiological studies require repeated measurements of vascular structure to determine differences in vessel biomechanical properties between animal models of pulmonary disease. Automation provides many advantages including significantly improved speed and minimized operator interaction and biasing. The results are validated by comparison with previously published rat pulmonary arterial micro-CT data analysis techniques, in which vessels were manually mapped and measured using intense operator intervention. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Book review: The Wilderness Debate Rages On: Continuing the Great New Wilderness Debate

Treesearch

Peter Landres

2009-01-01

The Wilderness Debate Rages On is a collection of mostly previously published papers about the meaning, value, and role of wilderness and continues the discussion that was propelled by the editors' previous book The Great New Wilderness Debate (also a collection of papers) published in 1998. The editors state that this sequel to their previous book is mandated...

Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa.

PubMed

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, Lennert J; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen J

2016-05-31

Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010). We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million) in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million). Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years) from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

Gene genealogies for genetic association mapping, with application to Crohn's disease

PubMed Central

Burkett, Kelly M.; Greenwood, Celia M. T.; McNeney, Brad; Graham, Jinko

2013-01-01

A gene genealogy describes relationships among haplotypes sampled from a population. Knowledge of the gene genealogy for a set of haplotypes is useful for estimation of population genetic parameters and it also has potential application in finding disease-predisposing genetic variants. As the true gene genealogy is unknown, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approaches have been used to sample genealogies conditional on data at multiple genetic markers. We previously implemented an MCMC algorithm to sample from an approximation to the distribution of the gene genealogy conditional on haplotype data. Our approach samples ancestral trees, recombination and mutation rates at a genomic focal point. In this work, we describe how our sampler can be used to find disease-predisposing genetic variants in samples of cases and controls. We use a tree-based association statistic that quantifies the degree to which case haplotypes are more closely related to each other around the focal point than control haplotypes, without relying on a disease model. As the ancestral tree is a latent variable, so is the tree-based association statistic. We show how the sampler can be used to estimate the posterior distribution of the latent test statistic and corresponding latent p-values, which together comprise a fuzzy p-value. We illustrate the approach on a publicly-available dataset from a study of Crohn's disease that consists of genotypes at multiple SNP markers in a small genomic region. We estimate the posterior distribution of the tree-based association statistic and the recombination rate at multiple focal points in the region. Reassuringly, the posterior mean recombination rates estimated at the different focal points are consistent with previously published estimates. The tree-based association approach finds multiple sub-regions where the case haplotypes are more genetically related than the control haplotypes, and that there may be one or multiple disease-predisposing loci. PMID:24348515

Estimating total population size for adult female sea turtles: Accounting for non-nesters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, W.L.; Richardson, J.I.; Rees, Alan F.

2008-01-01

Assessment of population size and changes therein is important to sea turtle management and population or life history research. Investigators might be interested in testing hypotheses about the effect of current population size or density (number of animals per unit resource) on future population processes. Decision makers might want to determine a level of allowable take of individual turtles of specified life stage. Nevertheless, monitoring most stages of sea turtle life histories is difficult, because obtaining access to individuals is difficult. Although in-water assessments are becoming more common, nesting females and their hatchlings remain the most accessible life stages. In some cases adult females of a given nesting population are sufficiently philopatric that the population itself can be well defined. If a well designed tagging study is conducted on this population, survival, breeding probability, and the size of the nesting population in a given year can be estimated. However, with published statistical methodology the size of the entire breeding population (including those females skipping nesting in that year) cannot be estimated without assuming that each adult female in this population has the same probability of nesting in a given year (even those that had just nested in the previous year). We present a method for estimating the total size of a breeding population (including nesters those skipping nesting) from a tagging study limited to the nesting population, allowing for the probability of nesting in a given year to depend on an individual's nesting status in the previous year (i.e., a Markov process). From this we further develop estimators for rate of growth from year to year in both nesting population and total breeding population, and the proportion of the breeding population that is breeding in a given year. We also discuss assumptions and apply these methods to a breeding population of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) from the Caribbean. We anticipate that this method could also be useful for in-water studies of well defined populations.

Testing mapping algorithms of the cancer-specific EORTC QLQ-C30 onto EQ-5D in malignant mesothelioma.

PubMed

Arnold, David T; Rowen, Donna; Versteegh, Matthijs M; Morley, Anna; Hooper, Clare E; Maskell, Nicholas A

2015-01-23

In order to estimate utilities for cancer studies where the EQ-5D was not used, the EORTC QLQ-C30 can be used to estimate EQ-5D using existing mapping algorithms. Several mapping algorithms exist for this transformation, however, algorithms tend to lose accuracy in patients in poor health states. The aim of this study was to test all existing mapping algorithms of QLQ-C30 onto EQ-5D, in a dataset of patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma, an invariably fatal malignancy where no previous mapping estimation has been published. Health related quality of life (HRQoL) data where both the EQ-5D and QLQ-C30 were used simultaneously was obtained from the UK-based prospective observational SWAMP (South West Area Mesothelioma and Pemetrexed) trial. In the original trial 73 patients with pleural mesothelioma were offered palliative chemotherapy and their HRQoL was assessed across five time points. This data was used to test the nine available mapping algorithms found in the literature, comparing predicted against observed EQ-5D values. The ability of algorithms to predict the mean, minimise error and detect clinically significant differences was assessed. The dataset had a total of 250 observations across 5 timepoints. The linear regression mapping algorithms tested generally performed poorly, over-estimating the predicted compared to observed EQ-5D values, especially when observed EQ-5D was below 0.5. The best performing algorithm used a response mapping method and predicted the mean EQ-5D with accuracy with an average root mean squared error of 0.17 (Standard Deviation; 0.22). This algorithm reliably discriminated between clinically distinct subgroups seen in the primary dataset. This study tested mapping algorithms in a population with poor health states, where they have been previously shown to perform poorly. Further research into EQ-5D estimation should be directed at response mapping methods given its superior performance in this study.

Automated nodule location and size estimation using a multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian filtering approach.

PubMed

Jirapatnakul, Artit C; Fotin, Sergei V; Reeves, Anthony P; Biancardi, Alberto M; Yankelevitz, David F; Henschke, Claudia I

2009-01-01

Estimation of nodule location and size is an important pre-processing step in some nodule segmentation algorithms to determine the size and location of the region of interest. Ideally, such estimation methods will consistently find the same nodule location regardless of where the the seed point (provided either manually or by a nodule detection algorithm) is placed relative to the "true" center of the nodule, and the size should be a reasonable estimate of the true nodule size. We developed a method that estimates nodule location and size using multi-scale Laplacian of Gaussian (LoG) filtering. Nodule candidates near a given seed point are found by searching for blob-like regions with high filter response. The candidates are then pruned according to filter response and location, and the remaining candidates are sorted by size and the largest candidate selected. This method was compared to a previously published template-based method. The methods were evaluated on the basis of stability of the estimated nodule location to changes in the initial seed point and how well the size estimates agreed with volumes determined by a semi-automated nodule segmentation method. The LoG method exhibited better stability to changes in the seed point, with 93% of nodules having the same estimated location even when the seed point was altered, compared to only 52% of nodules for the template-based method. Both methods also showed good agreement with sizes determined by a nodule segmentation method, with an average relative size difference of 5% and -5% for the LoG and template-based methods respectively.

Estimation of the emission factors of particle number and mass fractions from traffic at a site where mean vehicle speeds vary over short distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Alan M.; Harrison, Roy M.

Emission factors for particle number in three size ranges (11-30; 30-100 and >100 nm) as well as for PM 2.5, PM 2.5-10 and PM 10 mass have been estimated separately for heavy and light-duty vehicles in a heavily trafficked street canyon in London where traffic speeds vary considerably over short distances. Emissions of NO x were estimated from published emission factors, and emissions of other pollutants estimated from their ratio to NO x in the roadside concentration after subtraction of the simultaneously measured urban background. The estimated emission factors are compared with other published data. Despite many differences in the design and implementation of the various studies, the results for particulate matter are broadly similar. Estimates of particle number emissions in this study for light-duty vehicles are very close to other published data, whilst those for heavy-duty vehicles are lower than in the more comparable studies. It is suggested that a contributory factor may be the introduction of diesel particle oxidation traps on some of the bus fleet in London. Estimates of emission factors for particle mass (PM 2.5 and PM 2.5-10) are within the range of other published data, and total mass emissions estimated from the ratio of concentration to NO x are tolerably close to those estimated using emission factors from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI). However, the method leads to an estimate of carbon monoxide emissions 3-6 times larger than that derived using the NAEI factors.

Body mass and stature estimation based on the first metatarsal in humans.

PubMed

De Groote, Isabelle; Humphrey, Louise T

2011-04-01

Archaeological assemblages often lack the complete long bones needed to estimate stature and body mass. The most accurate estimates of body mass and stature are produced using femoral head diameter and femur length. Foot bones including the first metatarsal preserve relatively well in a range of archaeological contexts. In this article we present regression equations using the first metatarsal to estimate femoral head diameter, femoral length, and body mass in a diverse human sample. The skeletal sample comprised 87 individuals (Andamanese, Australasians, Africans, Native Americans, and British). Results show that all first metatarsal measurements correlate moderately to highly (r = 0.62-0.91) with femoral head diameter and length. The proximal articular dorsoplantar diameter is the best single measurement to predict both femoral dimensions. Percent standard errors of the estimate are below 5%. Equations using two metatarsal measurements show a small increase in accuracy. Direct estimations of body mass (calculated from measured femoral head diameter using previously published equations) have an error of just over 7%. No direct stature estimation equations were derived due to the varied linear body proportions represented in the sample. The equations were tested on a sample of 35 individuals from Christ Church Spitalfields. Percentage differences in estimated and measured femoral head diameter and length were less than 1%. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to use the first metatarsal in the estimation of body mass and stature. The equations presented here are particularly useful for assemblages where the long bones are either missing or fragmented, and enable estimation of these fundamental population parameters in poorly preserved assemblages. Copyright © 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Development of a Novel Method for in vivo Determination of Activation Energy of Glucose Transport Across S. cerevisiae Cellular Membranes. A Biosensor-like Approach.

PubMed

Kormes, Diego J; Cortón, Eduardo

2009-01-01

Whereas biosensors have been usually proposed as analytical tools, used to investigate the surrounding media pursuing an analytical answer, we have used a biosensor-like device to characterize the microbial cells immobilized on it. We have studied the kinetics of transport and degradation of glucose at different concentrations and temperatures. When glucose concentrations of 15 and 1.5 mM were assayed, calculated activation energies were 25.2 and 18.4 kcal mol(-1), respectively, in good agreement with previously published data. The opportunity and convenience of using Arrhenius plots to estimate the activation energy in metabolic-related processes is also discussed.

Effects of independent variation of Mach and Reynolds numbers on the low-speed aerodynamic characteristics of the NACA 0012 airfoil section

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ladson, Charles L.

1988-01-01

A comprehensive data base is given for the low speed aerodynamic characteristics of the NACA 0012 airfoil section. The Langley low-turbulence pressure tunnel is the facility used to obtain the data. Included in the report are the effects of Mach number and Reynolds number and transition fixing on the aerodynamic characteristics. Presented are also comparisons of some of the results with previously published data and with theoretical estimates. The Mach number varied from 0.05 to 0.36. The Reynolds number, based on model chord, varied from 3 x 10 to the 6th to 12 x 10 to the 6th power.

Bathymetric survey of the nearshore from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass, Louisiana: methods and data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWitt, Nancy T.; Flocks, James G.; Hansen, Mark; Kulp, Mark; Reynolds, B.J.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the University of New Orleans (UNO) and the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (LDNR), conducted a high-resolution, single-beam bathymetric survey along the Louisiana southern coastal zone from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass. The survey consisted of 483 line kilometers of data acquired in July and August of 2005. This report outlines the methodology and provides the data from the survey. Analysis of the data and comparison to a similar bathymetric survey completed in 1989 show significant loss of seafloor and shoreline retreat, which is consistent with previously published estimates of shoreline change in the study area.

Molecular carbon isotopic evidence for the origin of geothermal hydrocarbons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Des Marais, D.J.; Donchin, J.H.; Nehring, N.L.; Truesdell, A.H.

1981-01-01

Previous interest in light hydrocarbons from geothermal systems has focused principally on the origin of the methane1 and the estimation of subsurface temperatures from the carbon isotopic content of coexisting methane and carbon dioxide1-3. Higher molecular weight hydrocarbons were first reported in gases from Yellowstone National Park4, and have since been found to occur commonly in geothermal emanations in the western United States5. Isotopic measurements of individual geothermal hydrocarbons are now reported which help to explain the origin of these hydrocarbons. The thermal decomposition of sedimentary or groundwater organic matter is a principal source of hydrocarbons in four geothermal areas in western North America. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.

Dimensionless Numbers Expressed in Terms of Common CVD Process Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuczmarski, Maria A.

1999-01-01

A variety of dimensionless numbers related to momentum and heat transfer are useful in Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) analysis. These numbers are not traditionally calculated by directly using reactor operating parameters, such as temperature and pressure. In this paper, these numbers have been expressed in a form that explicitly shows their dependence upon the carrier gas, reactor geometry, and reactor operation conditions. These expressions were derived for both monatomic and diatomic gases using estimation techniques for viscosity, thermal conductivity, and heat capacity. Values calculated from these expressions compared well to previously published values. These expressions provide a relatively quick method for predicting changes in the flow patterns resulting from changes in the reactor operating conditions.

Heating of the lower thermosphere by the dissipation of acoustic waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rind, D.

1977-01-01

Infrasound of 0.2 Hz known as microbaroms, generated by interfering ocean waves, propagates into the lower thermosphere where it is dissipated between 110 and 140 km. It is shown here that under average conditions in winter the energy input into this region is of the order of 0.33 W/kg, the same as that estimated for gravity wave dissipation, and capable of producing a heating of at least 30 K/day. To arrive at this result different dissipation mechanisms are discussed, with the calculated attenuation compared to previously published observations and observations of natural infrasound at Palisades, N.Y. Increased acoustic attenuation due to the presence of turbulence is not, in general, in evidence.

Evaluation of earthquake potential in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Yufang

I present three earthquake potential estimates for magnitude 5.4 and larger earthquakes for China. The potential is expressed as the rate density (that is, the probability per unit area, magnitude and time). The three methods employ smoothed seismicity-, geologic slip rate-, and geodetic strain rate data. I test all three estimates, and another published estimate, against earthquake data. I constructed a special earthquake catalog which combines previous catalogs covering different times. I estimated moment magnitudes for some events using regression relationships that are derived in this study. I used the special catalog to construct the smoothed seismicity model and to test all models retrospectively. In all the models, I adopted a kind of Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution with modifications at higher magnitude. The assumed magnitude distribution depends on three parameters: a multiplicative " a-value," the slope or "b-value," and a "corner magnitude" marking a rapid decrease of earthquake rate with magnitude. I assumed the "b-value" to be constant for the whole study area and estimated the other parameters from regional or local geophysical data. The smoothed seismicity method assumes that the rate density is proportional to the magnitude of past earthquakes and declines as a negative power of the epicentral distance out to a few hundred kilometers. I derived the upper magnitude limit from the special catalog, and estimated local "a-values" from smoothed seismicity. I have begun a "prospective" test, and earthquakes since the beginning of 2000 are quite compatible with the model. For the geologic estimations, I adopted the seismic source zones that are used in the published Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP) model. The zones are divided according to geological, geodetic and seismicity data. Corner magnitudes are estimated from fault length, while fault slip rates and an assumed locking depth determine earthquake rates. The geological model fits the earthquake data better than the GSHAP model. By smoothing geodetic strain rate, another potential model was constructed and tested. I derived the upper magnitude limit from the Special catalog, and assume local "a-values" proportional to geodetic strain rates. "Prospective" tests show that the geodetic strain rate model is quite compatible with earthquakes. By assuming the smoothed seismicity model as a null hypothesis, I tested every other model against it. Test results indicate that the smoothed seismicity model performs best.

Why publishing everything is more effective than selective publishing of statistically significant results.

PubMed

van Assen, Marcel A L M; van Aert, Robbie C M; Nuijten, Michèle B; Wicherts, Jelte M

2014-01-01

De Winter and Happee examined whether science based on selective publishing of significant results may be effective in accurate estimation of population effects, and whether this is even more effective than a science in which all results are published (i.e., a science without publication bias). Based on their simulation study they concluded that "selective publishing yields a more accurate meta-analytic estimation of the true effect than publishing everything, (and that) publishing nonreplicable results while placing null results in the file drawer can be beneficial for the scientific collective" (p.4). Using their scenario with a small to medium population effect size, we show that publishing everything is more effective for the scientific collective than selective publishing of significant results. Additionally, we examined a scenario with a null effect, which provides a more dramatic illustration of the superiority of publishing everything over selective publishing. Publishing everything is more effective than only reporting significant outcomes.

Why Publishing Everything Is More Effective than Selective Publishing of Statistically Significant Results

PubMed Central

van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.; van Aert, Robbie C. M.; Nuijten, Michèle B.; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Background De Winter and Happee [1] examined whether science based on selective publishing of significant results may be effective in accurate estimation of population effects, and whether this is even more effective than a science in which all results are published (i.e., a science without publication bias). Based on their simulation study they concluded that “selective publishing yields a more accurate meta-analytic estimation of the true effect than publishing everything, (and that) publishing nonreplicable results while placing null results in the file drawer can be beneficial for the scientific collective” (p.4). Methods and Findings Using their scenario with a small to medium population effect size, we show that publishing everything is more effective for the scientific collective than selective publishing of significant results. Additionally, we examined a scenario with a null effect, which provides a more dramatic illustration of the superiority of publishing everything over selective publishing. Conclusion Publishing everything is more effective than only reporting significant outcomes. PMID:24465448

Comparing top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane emissions across multiple U.S. oil and gas basins provides insights into national O&G emissions, mitigation strategies, and research priorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, D. R.; Alvarez, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.

2017-12-01

We develop a county-level inventory of U.S. anthropogenic methane emissions by integrating multiple data sources including the Drillinginfo oil and gas (O&G) production database, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, a previously published gridded EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory (Maasakkers et al 2016), and recent measurements studies of O&G pneumatic devices, equipment leaks, abandoned wells, and midstream facilities. Our bottom-up estimates of total and O&G methane emissions are consistently lower than top-down, aerial mass balance estimates in ten O&G production areas. We evaluate several hypotheses for the top-down/bottom-up discrepancy including potential bias of the aerial mass balance method, temporal mismatch of top-down and bottom-up emission estimates, and source attribution errors. In most basins, the top-down/bottom-up gap cannot be explained fully without additional O&G emissions from sources not included in traditional inventories, such as super-emitters caused by malfunctions or abnormal process conditions. Top-down/bottom-up differences across multiple basins are analyzed to estimate the magnitude of these additional emissions and constrain total methane emissions from the U.S. O&G supply chain. We discuss the implications for mitigating O&G methane emissions and suggest research priorities for increasing the accuracy of future emission inventories.

ModFOLD6: an accurate web server for the global and local quality estimation of 3D protein models.

PubMed

Maghrabi, Ali H A; McGuffin, Liam J

2017-07-03

Methods that reliably estimate the likely similarity between the predicted and native structures of proteins have become essential for driving the acceptance and adoption of three-dimensional protein models by life scientists. ModFOLD6 is the latest version of our leading resource for Estimates of Model Accuracy (EMA), which uses a pioneering hybrid quasi-single model approach. The ModFOLD6 server integrates scores from three pure-single model methods and three quasi-single model methods using a neural network to estimate local quality scores. Additionally, the server provides three options for producing global score estimates, depending on the requirements of the user: (i) ModFOLD6_rank, which is optimized for ranking/selection, (ii) ModFOLD6_cor, which is optimized for correlations of predicted and observed scores and (iii) ModFOLD6 global for balanced performance. The ModFOLD6 methods rank among the top few for EMA, according to independent blind testing by the CASP12 assessors. The ModFOLD6 server is also continuously automatically evaluated as part of the CAMEO project, where significant performance gains have been observed compared to our previous server and other publicly available servers. The ModFOLD6 server is freely available at: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/ModFOLD/. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Previous prelabor or intrapartum cesarean delivery and risk of placenta previa.

PubMed

Downes, Katheryne L; Hinkle, Stefanie N; Sjaarda, Lindsey A; Albert, Paul S; Grantz, Katherine L

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the association between previous cesarean delivery and subsequent placenta previa while distinguishing cesarean delivery before the onset of labor from intrapartum cesarean delivery. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of electronic medical records from 20 Utah hospitals (2002-2010) with restriction to the first 2 singleton deliveries of nulliparous women at study entry (n=26,987). First pregnancy delivery mode was classified as (1) vaginal (reference), (2) cesarean delivery before labor onset (prelabor), or (3) cesarean delivery after labor onset (intrapartum). Risk of second delivery previa was estimated by previous delivery mode with the use of logistic regression and was adjusted for maternal age, insurance, smoking, comorbidities, previous pregnancy loss, and history of previa. Most first deliveries were vaginal (82%; n=22,142), followed by intrapartum cesarean delivery (14.6%; n=3931), or prelabor cesarean delivery (3.4%; n=914). Incidence of second delivery previa was 0.29% (n=78) and differed by previous delivery mode: vaginal, 0.24%; prelabor cesarean delivery, 0.98%; intrapartum cesarean delivery, 0.38% (P<.001). Relative to vaginal delivery, previous prelabor cesarean delivery was associated with an increased risk of second delivery previa (adjusted odds ratio, 2.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-5.56). There was no significant association between previous intrapartum cesarean delivery and previa (adjusted odds ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.68-2.19). Previous prelabor cesarean delivery was associated with a >2-fold significantly increased risk of previa in the second delivery, although the approximately 20% increased risk of previa that was associated with previous intrapartum cesarean delivery was not significant. Although rare, the increased risk of placenta previa after previous prelabor cesarean delivery may be important when considering nonmedically indicated prelabor cesarean delivery. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Inferring the demographic history from DNA sequences: An importance sampling approach based on non-homogeneous processes.

PubMed

Ait Kaci Azzou, S; Larribe, F; Froda, S

2016-10-01

In Ait Kaci Azzou et al. (2015) we introduced an Importance Sampling (IS) approach for estimating the demographic history of a sample of DNA sequences, the skywis plot. More precisely, we proposed a new nonparametric estimate of a population size that changes over time. We showed on simulated data that the skywis plot can work well in typical situations where the effective population size does not undergo very steep changes. In this paper, we introduce an iterative procedure which extends the previous method and gives good estimates under such rapid variations. In the iterative calibrated skywis plot we approximate the effective population size by a piecewise constant function, whose values are re-estimated at each step. These piecewise constant functions are used to generate the waiting times of non homogeneous Poisson processes related to a coalescent process with mutation under a variable population size model. Moreover, the present IS procedure is based on a modified version of the Stephens and Donnelly (2000) proposal distribution. Finally, we apply the iterative calibrated skywis plot method to a simulated data set from a rapidly expanding exponential model, and we show that the method based on this new IS strategy correctly reconstructs the demographic history. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Modelling survival: exposure pattern, species sensitivity and uncertainty

PubMed Central

Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight; Cedergreen, Nina; Charles, Sandrine; Ducrot, Virginie; Focks, Andreas; Gabsi, Faten; Gergs, André; Goussen, Benoit; Jager, Tjalling; Kramer, Nynke I.; Nyman, Anna-Maija; Poulsen, Veronique; Reichenberger, Stefan; Schäfer, Ralf B.; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Veltman, Karin; Vogel, Sören; Zimmer, Elke I.; Preuss, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test the ability of GUTS to predict survival of aquatic organisms across different pesticide exposure patterns, time scales and species. Firstly, using synthetic data, we identified experimental data requirements which allow for the estimation of all parameters of the GUTS proper model. Secondly, we assessed how well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates to build species sensitivity distributions for different exposure patterns. We find that GUTS adequately predicts survival across exposure patterns that vary over time. When toxicity is assessed for time-variable concentrations species may differ in their responses depending on the exposure profile. This can result in different species sensitivity rankings and safe levels. The interplay of exposure pattern and species sensitivity deserves systematic investigation in order to better understand how organisms respond to stress, including humans. PMID:27381500

Use and Customization of Risk Scores for Predicting Cardiovascular Events Using Electronic Health Record Data.

PubMed

Wolfson, Julian; Vock, David M; Bandyopadhyay, Sunayan; Kottke, Thomas; Vazquez-Benitez, Gabriela; Johnson, Paul; Adomavicius, Gediminas; O'Connor, Patrick J

2017-04-24

Clinicians who are using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) to estimate risk for their patients based on electronic health data (EHD) face 4 questions. (1) Do published risk scores applied to EHD yield accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk? (2) Are FRS risk estimates, which are based on data that are up to 45 years old, valid for a contemporary patient population seeking routine care? (3) Do the PCE make the FRS obsolete? (4) Does refitting the risk score using EHD improve the accuracy of risk estimates? Data were extracted from the EHD of 84 116 adults aged 40 to 79 years who received care at a large healthcare delivery and insurance organization between 2001 and 2011. We assessed calibration and discrimination for 4 risk scores: published versions of FRS and PCE and versions obtained by refitting models using a subset of the available EHD. The published FRS was well calibrated (calibration statistic K=9.1, miscalibration ranging from 0% to 17% across risk groups), but the PCE displayed modest evidence of miscalibration (calibration statistic K=43.7, miscalibration from 9% to 31%). Discrimination was similar in both models (C-index=0.740 for FRS, 0.747 for PCE). Refitting the published models using EHD did not substantially improve calibration or discrimination. We conclude that published cardiovascular risk models can be successfully applied to EHD to estimate cardiovascular risk; the FRS remains valid and is not obsolete; and model refitting does not meaningfully improve the accuracy of risk estimates. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

A method to measure the ozone penetration factor in residences under infiltration conditions: application in a multifamily apartment unit.

PubMed

Zhao, H; Stephens, B

2016-08-01

Recent experiments have demonstrated that outdoor ozone reacts with materials inside residential building enclosures, potentially reducing indoor exposures to ozone or altering ozone reaction byproducts. However, test methods to measure ozone penetration factors in residences (P) remain limited. We developed a method to measure ozone penetration factors in residences under infiltration conditions and applied it in an unoccupied apartment unit. Twenty-four repeated measurements were made, and results were explored to (i) evaluate the accuracy and repeatability of the new procedure using multiple solution methods, (ii) compare results from 'interference-free' and conventional UV absorbance ozone monitors, and (iii) compare results against those from a previously published test method requiring artificial depressurization. The mean (±s.d.) estimate of P was 0.54 ± 0.10 across a wide range of conditions using the new method with an interference-free monitor; the conventional monitor was unable to yield meaningful results due to relatively high limits of detection. Estimates of P were not clearly influenced by any indoor or outdoor environmental conditions or changes in indoor decay rate constants. This work represents the first known measurements of ozone penetration factors in a residential building operating under natural infiltration conditions and provides a new method for widespread application in buildings. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination: A Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches.

PubMed

Pink, Joshua; Parker, Ben; Petrou, Stavros

2016-09-01

A large number of economic evaluations have been published that assess alternative possible human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Understanding differences in the modelling methodologies used in these studies is important to assess the accuracy, comparability and generalisability of their results. The aim of this review was to identify published economic models of HPV vaccination programmes and understand how characteristics of these studies vary by geographical area, date of publication and the policy question being addressed. We performed literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED) and The National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). From the 1189 unique studies retrieved, 65 studies were included for data extraction based on a priori eligibility criteria. Two authors independently reviewed these articles to determine eligibility for the final review. Data were extracted from the selected studies, focussing on six key structural or methodological themes covering different aspects of the model(s) used that may influence cost-effectiveness results. More recently published studies tend to model a larger number of HPV strains, and include a larger number of HPV-associated diseases. Studies published in Europe and North America also tend to include a larger number of diseases and are more likely to incorporate the impact of herd immunity and to use more realistic assumptions around vaccine efficacy and coverage. Studies based on previous models often do not include sufficiently robust justifications as to the applicability of the adapted model to the new context. The considerable between-study heterogeneity in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes makes comparisons between studies difficult, as observed differences in cost effectiveness may be driven by differences in methodology as well as by variations in funding and delivery models and estimates of model parameters. Studies should consistently report not only all simplifying assumptions made but also the estimated impact of these assumptions on the cost-effectiveness results.

Confounding of the Association between Radiation Exposure from CT Scans and Risk of Leukemia and Brain Tumors by Cancer Susceptibility Syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-01-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of CT scans performed in children. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk estimates. Because there is virtually no empirical evidence in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about the current and previous patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome, or other CSS. In contrast, RRs for brain tumors may be overestimated due to confounding by tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) while von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1, or other CSS do not meaningfully confound. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients are urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with leukemia reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS, whereas brain tumor risks might have been overestimated due to confounding by TSC. Future studies should identify TSC patients in order to avoid overestimation of brain tumor risks due to radiation exposure from CT scans. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

PubMed

Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

2018-04-01

To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of low-level sarin and cyclosarin exposure on hippocampal subfields in Gulf War Veterans.

PubMed

Chao, Linda L; Kriger, Stephen; Buckley, Shannon; Ng, Peter; Mueller, Susanne G

2014-09-01

More than 100,000 US troops were potentially exposed to chemical warfare agents sarin (GB) and cyclosarin (GF) when an ammunition dump at Khamisiyah, Iraq was destroyed during the 1991 Gulf War (GW). We previously reported reduced hippocampal volume in GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure relative to matched, unexposed GW veterans estimated from 1.5T magnetic resonance images (MRI). Here we investigate, in a different cohort of GW veterans, whether low-level GB/GF exposure is associated with structural alterations in specific hippocampal subfields, estimated from 4T MRI. The Automatic Segmentation of Hippocampal Subfields (ASHS) technique was used to quantify CA1, CA2, CA3 and dentate gyrus (DG), and subiculum (SUB) subfields volumes from high-resolution T2-weighted images acquired on a 4T MR scanner in 56 GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure and 56 "matched" unexposed GW veterans (mean age 49±7 years). GB/GF exposed veterans had smaller CA2 (p=0.003) and CA3/DG (p=0.01) subfield volumes compared to matched, unexposed GW veterans. There were no group difference in total hippocampal volume, quantified with FreeSurfer, and no dose-response relationship between estimated levels of GB/GF exposure and total hippocampal or subfield volume. These findings extend our previous report of structural alterations in the hippocampi of GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure to volume changes in the CA2, CA3, and DG hippocampal subfields in a different cohort of GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hyperhidrosis: an update on prevalence and severity in the United States.

PubMed

Doolittle, James; Walker, Patricia; Mills, Thomas; Thurston, Jane

2016-12-01

Current published estimates of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the United States are outdated and underestimate the true prevalence of the condition. The objectives of this study are to provide an updated estimate of the prevalence of hyperhidrosis in the US population and to further assess the severity and impact of sweating on those affected by the condition. For the purposes of obtaining prevalence, a nationally representative sample of 8160 individuals were selected using an online panel, and information as to whether or not they experience hyperhidrosis was obtained. The 393 individuals (210 female, 244 non-Hispanic white, 27 black, mean age 40.3, SE 0.64) who indicated that they have hyperhidrosis were asked further questions, including body areas impacted, severity of symptoms, age of onset, and socioemotional impact of the condition. Current results estimate the prevalence of hyperhidrosis at 4.8 %, which represents approximately 15.3 million people in the United States. Of these, 70 % report severe excessive sweating in at least one body area. In spite of this, only 51 % have discussed their excessive sweating with a healthcare professional. The main reasons are a belief that hyperhidrosis is not a medical condition and that no treatment options exist. The current study's findings with regard to age of onset and prevalence by body area generally align with the previous research. However, current findings suggest that the severity and prevalence are both higher than previously thought, indicating a need for greater awareness of the condition and its associated treatment options among medical professionals.

Indoor air pollution from burning yak dung as a household fuel in Tibet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Qingyang; Saikawa, Eri; Yokelson, Robert J.; Chen, Pengfei; Li, Chaoliu; Kang, Shichang

2015-02-01

Yak dung is widely used for cooking and heating in Tibet. We measured real-time concentrations of black carbon (BC) and fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less (PM2.5) emitted by yak dung burning in six households with different living conditions and stove types in the Nam Co region, Tibet. We observed a much lower average BC/PM2.5 mass ratio (0.013, range 0.006-0.028) from dung combustion in this area than previously reported estimates, ranging between 0.05 and 0.11. Based on our measurements, estimated fuel use, and published emission factors of BC and PM2.5, about 0.4-1.7 Gg/year of BC is emitted by yak dung combustion in Tibet in addition to the previously estimated 0.70 Gg/year of BC for Tibetan residential sources. Our survey shows that most residents were aware of adverse health impacts of indoor yak dung combustion and approximately 2/3 of residents had already installed chimney stoves to mitigate indoor air pollution. However, our measurements reveal that, without adequate ventilation, installing a chimney may not ensure good indoor air quality. For instance, the 6-h average BC and PM2.5 concentrations in a stone house using a chimney stove were 24.5 and 873 μg/m3, respectively. We also observed a change in the BC/PM2.5 ratios before and after a snow event. The impact of dung moisture content on combustion efficiency and pollutant emissions needs further investigation.

Carbon budget for a British upland peat catchment.

PubMed

Worrall, Fred; Reed, Mark; Warburton, Jeff; Burt, Tim

2003-08-01

This study describes the analysis of fluvial carbon flux from an upland peat catchment in the North Pennines. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), pH, alkalinity and calcium were measured in weekly samples, with particulate organic carbon (POC) measured from the suspended sediment load from the stream outlet of an 11.4-km(2) catchment. For calendar year 1999, regular monitoring of the catchment was supplemented with detailed quasi-continuous measurements of flow and stream temperature, and DOC for the months September through November. The measurements were used to calculate the annual flux of dissolved CO(2), dissolved inorganic carbon, DOC and POC from the catchment and were combined with CO(2) and CH(4) gaseous exchanges calculated from previously published values and the observations of water table height within the peat. The study catchment represents a net sink of 15.4+/-11.9 gC/m(2)/yr. Carbon flows calculated for the study catchment are combined with values in the literature, using a Monte Carlo method, to estimate the carbon budget for British upland peat. For all British upland peat the calculation suggests a net carbon sink of between 0.15 and 0.29 MtC/yr. This is the first study to include a comprehensive study of the fluvial export of carbon within carbon budgets and shows the size of the peat carbon sink to be smaller than previous estimates, although sensitivity analysis shows that the primary productivity rather than fluvial carbon flux is a more important element in estimating the carbon budget in this regard.

SHRIMP U-Pb geochronology of volcanic rocks, Belt Supergroup, western Montana: Evidence for rapid deposition of sedimentary strata

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, K.V.; Aleinikoff, J.N.; Obradovich, J.D.; Fanning, C.M.

2000-01-01

New sensitive high resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) U-Pb zircon analyses from two tuffs and a felsic flow in the middle and upper Belt Supergroup of northwestern Montana significantly refine the age of sedimentation for this very thick (15-20 km) Middle Proterozoic stratigraphic sequence. In ascending stratigraphic order, the results are (1) 1454 ?? 9 Ma for a tuff in the upper part of the Helena Formation at Logan Pass, Glacier National Park; (2) 1443 ?? 7 Ma for a regionally restricted porphyritic rhyolite to quartz latite flow of the Purcell Lava in the Yaak River region; and (3) 1401 ?? 6 Ma for a tuff in the very thin transition zone between the Bonner Quartzite and Libby Formation, west of the town of Libby. Combining these ages with those previously published by other workers for ca. 1470-Ma sills in the lower Belt in Montana and Canada indicates that all but the uppermost Belt strata (about 1700 m) were deposited over a period of about 70 million years, considerably reducing the time span from longstanding estimates ranging from 250 to 600 million years. Calculated sediment accumulation rates between dated samples indicates rapid, but not unreasonable, values for early Belt strata, with decreasing rates through time. These ages also suggest the inadequacy of previously published paleomagnetic data to resolve Belt Supergroup chronology at an appropriate level of accuracy.

Prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the adult Russian population (NATION study).

PubMed

Dedov, Ivan; Shestakova, Marina; Benedetti, Massimo Massi; Simon, Dominique; Pakhomov, Iakov; Galstyan, Gagik

2016-05-01

To estimate type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence in Russian adults. NATION is a national, epidemiological, cross-sectional study, conducted in Russia. In adults (aged 20-79 years), recruitment was stratified by age, sex, geographic region and settlement type to obtain a representative sample. Recruitment was in public areas with high numbers of people. T2DM was diagnosed by glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels (diabetes: HbA1c ≥6.5% [≥48mmol/mol]; pre-diabetes: HbA1c ≥5.7 to <6.5% [≥39 to <48mmol/mol]). Socio-demographic and anthropometric data were collected. Blood samples from 26,620 subjects were available. Overall, 5.4% were diagnosed with T2DM (previously diagnosed: 2.5%; previously undiagnosed: 2.9%); 19.3% were pre-diabetic. T2DM prevalence increased with age (up to 70 years) and was higher among females than males (6.1% vs. 4.7%, p<0.001). The estimated proportion of subjects with pre-diabetes and T2DM tended to increase with increasing body mass index. T2DM prevalence was higher in rural versus urban populations (6.7% vs. 5.0%, p<0.001). In the Russian adult population, 19.3% had pre-diabetes, T2DM prevalence was 5.4%, and 54% of subjects with diabetes were previously undiagnosed. These results may help to develop a new T2DM predictive, preventative and management programme in Russia. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimation of minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) of CO2 and liquid n-alkane systems using an improved MRI technique.

PubMed

Liu, Yu; Jiang, Lanlan; Song, Yongchen; Zhao, Yuechao; Zhang, Yi; Wang, Dayong

2016-02-01

Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) of gas and oil system is a key parameter for the injection system design of CO2 miscible flooding. Some industrial standard approaches such as the experiment using a rising bubble apparatus (RBA), the slim tube tests (STT), the pressure-density diagram (PDD), etc. have been applied for decades to determine the MMP of gas and oil. Some theoretical or experiential calculations of the MMP were also applied to the gas-oil miscible system. In the present work, an improved technique based on our previous research for the estimation of the MMP by using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was proposed. This technique was then applied to the CO2 and n-alkane binary and ternary systems to observe the mixing procedure and to study the miscibility. MRI signal intensities, which represent the proton concentration of n-alkane in both the hydrocarbon rich phase and the CO2 rich phase, were plotted as a reference for determining the MMP. The accuracy of the MMP obtained by using this improved technique was enhanced comparing with the data obtained from our previous works. The results also show good agreement with other established techniques (such as the STT) in previous published works. It demonstrates increases of MMPs as the temperature rise from 20 °C to 37.8 °C. The MMPs of CO2 and n-alkane systems are also found to be proportional to the carbon number in the range of C10 to C14. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous diagnosis of radial profiles and mix in NIF ignition-scale implosions via X-ray spectroscopy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ciricosta, O.; Scott, H.; Durey, P.

In a National Ignition Facility implosion, hydrodynamic instabilities may cause the cold material from the imploding shell to be injected into the hot-spot (hot-spot mix), enhancing the radiative and conductive losses, which in turn may lead to a quenching of the ignition process. The bound-bound features of the spectrum emitted by high-Z ablator dopants that get mixed into the hot-spot have been previously used to infer the total amount of mixed mass; however, the typical errorbars are larger than the maximum tolerable mix. We present in this paper an improved 2D model for mix spectroscopy which can be used tomore » retrieve information on both the amount of mixed mass and the full imploded plasma profile. By performing radiation transfer and simultaneously fitting all of the features exhibited by the spectra, we are able to constrain self-consistently the effect of the opacity of the external layers of the target on the emission, thus improving the accuracy of the inferred mixed mass. The model's predictive capabilities are first validated by fitting simulated spectra arising from fully characterized hydrodynamic simulations, and then, the model is applied to previously published experimental results, providing values of mix mass in agreement with previous estimates. Finally, we show that the new self consistent procedure leads to better constrained estimates of mix and also provides insight into the sensitivity of the hot-spot spectroscopy to the spatial properties of the imploded capsule, such as the in-flight aspect ratio of the cold fuel surrounding the hotspot.« less

Simultaneous diagnosis of radial profiles and mix in NIF ignition-scale implosions via X-ray spectroscopy

DOE PAGES

Ciricosta, O.; Scott, H.; Durey, P.; ...

2017-11-06

In a National Ignition Facility implosion, hydrodynamic instabilities may cause the cold material from the imploding shell to be injected into the hot-spot (hot-spot mix), enhancing the radiative and conductive losses, which in turn may lead to a quenching of the ignition process. The bound-bound features of the spectrum emitted by high-Z ablator dopants that get mixed into the hot-spot have been previously used to infer the total amount of mixed mass; however, the typical errorbars are larger than the maximum tolerable mix. We present in this paper an improved 2D model for mix spectroscopy which can be used tomore » retrieve information on both the amount of mixed mass and the full imploded plasma profile. By performing radiation transfer and simultaneously fitting all of the features exhibited by the spectra, we are able to constrain self-consistently the effect of the opacity of the external layers of the target on the emission, thus improving the accuracy of the inferred mixed mass. The model's predictive capabilities are first validated by fitting simulated spectra arising from fully characterized hydrodynamic simulations, and then, the model is applied to previously published experimental results, providing values of mix mass in agreement with previous estimates. Finally, we show that the new self consistent procedure leads to better constrained estimates of mix and also provides insight into the sensitivity of the hot-spot spectroscopy to the spatial properties of the imploded capsule, such as the in-flight aspect ratio of the cold fuel surrounding the hotspot.« less

Molecular insights into the colonization and chromosomal diversification of Madeiran house mice.

PubMed

Förster, D W; Gündüz, I; Nunes, A C; Gabriel, S; Ramalhinho, M G; Mathias, M L; Britton-Davidian, J; Searle, J B

2009-11-01

The colonization history of Madeiran house mice was investigated by analysing the complete mitochondrial (mt) D-loop sequences of 156 mice from the island of Madeira and mainland Portugal, extending on previous studies. The numbers of mtDNA haplotypes from Madeira and mainland Portugal were substantially increased (17 and 14 new haplotypes respectively), and phylogenetic analysis confirmed the previously reported link between the Madeiran archipelago and northern Europe. Sequence analysis revealed the presence of four mtDNA lineages in mainland Portugal, of which one was particularly common and widespread (termed the 'Portugal Main Clade'). There was no support for population bottlenecks during the formation of the six Robertsonian chromosome races on the island of Madeira, and D-loop sequence variation was not found to be structured according to karyotype. The colonization time of the Madeiran archipelago by Mus musculus domesticus was approached using two molecular dating methods (mismatch distribution and Bayesian skyline plot). Time estimates based on D-loop sequence variation at mainland sites (including previously published data from France and Turkey) were evaluated in the context of the zooarchaeological record of M. m. domesticus. A range of values for mutation rate (mu) and number of mouse generations per year was considered in these analyses because of the uncertainty surrounding these two parameters. The colonization of Portugal and Madeira by house mice is discussed in the context of the best-supported parameter values. In keeping with recent studies, our results suggest that mutation rate estimates based on interspecific divergence lead to gross overestimates concerning the timing of recent within-species events.

Simultaneous diagnosis of radial profiles and mix in NIF ignition-scale implosions via X-ray spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciricosta, O.; Scott, H.; Durey, P.; Hammel, B. A.; Epstein, R.; Preston, T. R.; Regan, S. P.; Vinko, S. M.; Woolsey, N. C.; Wark, J. S.

2017-11-01

In a National Ignition Facility implosion, hydrodynamic instabilities may cause the cold material from the imploding shell to be injected into the hot-spot (hot-spot mix), enhancing the radiative and conductive losses, which in turn may lead to a quenching of the ignition process. The bound-bound features of the spectrum emitted by high-Z ablator dopants that get mixed into the hot-spot have been previously used to infer the total amount of mixed mass; however, the typical errorbars are larger than the maximum tolerable mix. We present here an improved 2D model for mix spectroscopy which can be used to retrieve information on both the amount of mixed mass and the full imploded plasma profile. By performing radiation transfer and simultaneously fitting all of the features exhibited by the spectra, we are able to constrain self-consistently the effect of the opacity of the external layers of the target on the emission, thus improving the accuracy of the inferred mixed mass. The model's predictive capabilities are first validated by fitting simulated spectra arising from fully characterized hydrodynamic simulations, and then, the model is applied to previously published experimental results, providing values of mix mass in agreement with previous estimates. We show that the new self consistent procedure leads to better constrained estimates of mix and also provides insight into the sensitivity of the hot-spot spectroscopy to the spatial properties of the imploded capsule, such as the in-flight aspect ratio of the cold fuel surrounding the hotspot.

Redundant systematic reviews on the same topic in surgery: a study protocol for a meta-epidemiological investigation.

PubMed

Katsura, Morihiro; Kuriyama, Akira; Tada, Masafumi; Yamamoto, Kazumichi; Furukawa, Toshi A

2017-08-21

We are witnessing an explosive increase in redundant and overlapping publications of systematic reviews and meta-analyses (SRs/MAs) on the same topic, which often present conflicting results and interpretations, in the current medical literature. They represent wasted efforts on the part of investigators and peer reviewers and may confuse and possibly mislead clinicians and policymakers. Here, we present a protocol for a meta-epidemiological investigation to describe how often there are overlapping SRs/MAs on the same topic, to assess the quality of these multiple publications, and to investigate the causes of discrepant results between multiple SRs/MAs in the field of major surgery. We will use MEDLINE/PubMed to identify all SRs/MAs of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published in 2015 regarding major surgical interventions. After identifying the 'benchmark' SRs/MAs published in 2015, a process of screening in MEDLINE will be carried out to identify the previous SRs/MAs of RCTs on the same topic that were published within 5 years of the 'benchmark' SRs/MAs. We will tabulate the number of previous SRs/MAs on the same topic of RCTs, and then describe their variations in numbers of RCTs included, sample sizes, effect size estimates and other characteristics. We will also assess the differences in quality of each SR/MA using A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) score. Finally, we will investigate the potential reasons to explain the discrepant results between multiple SRs/MAs. No formal ethical approval and informed consent are required because this study will not collect primary individual data. The intended audiences of the findings include clinicians, healthcare researchers and policymakers. We will publish our findings as a scientific report in a peer-reviewed journal. In PROSPERO CRD42017059077, March 2017. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimating the decline in excess risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease following quitting smoking - a systematic review based on the negative exponential model.

PubMed

Lee, Peter N; Fry, John S; Forey, Barbara A

2014-03-01

We quantified the decline in COPD risk following quitting using the negative exponential model, as previously carried out for other smoking-related diseases. We identified 14 blocks of RRs (from 11 studies) comparing current smokers, former smokers (by time quit) and never smokers, some studies providing sex-specific blocks. Corresponding pseudo-numbers of cases and controls/at risk formed the data for model-fitting. We estimated the half-life (H, time since quit when the excess risk becomes half that for a continuing smoker) for each block, except for one where no decline with quitting was evident, and H was not estimable. For the remaining 13 blocks, goodness-of-fit to the model was generally adequate, the combined estimate of H being 13.32 (95% CI 11.86-14.96) years. There was no heterogeneity in H, overall or by various studied sources. Sensitivity analyses allowing for reverse causation or different assumed times for the final quitting period little affected the results. The model summarizes quitting data well. The estimate of 13.32years is substantially larger than recent estimates of 4.40years for ischaemic heart disease and 4.78years for stroke, and also larger than the 9.93years for lung cancer. Heterogeneity was unimportant for COPD, unlike for the other three diseases. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Census-independent population mapping in northern Nigeria

DOE PAGES

Weber, Eric M.; Seaman, Vincent Y.; Stewart, Robert N.; ...

2017-10-21

Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areasmore » within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. As a result, used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.« less

Census-independent population mapping in northern Nigeria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weber, Eric M.; Seaman, Vincent Y.; Stewart, Robert N.

Although remote sensing has long been used to aid in the estimation of population, it has usually been in the context of spatial disaggregation of national census data, with the census counts serving both as observational data for specifying models and as constraints on model outputs. Here we present a framework for estimating populations from the bottom up, entirely independently of national census data, a critical need in areas without recent and reliable census data. To make observations of population density, we replace national census data with a microcensus, in which we enumerate population for a sample of small areasmore » within the states of Kano and Kaduna in northern Nigeria. Using supervised texture-based classifiers with very high resolution satellite imagery, we produce a binary map of human settlement at 8-meter resolution across the two states and then a more refined classification consisting of 7 residential types and 1 non-residential type. Using the residential types and a model linking them to the population density observations, we produce population estimates across the two states in a gridded raster format, at approximately 90-meter resolution. We also demonstrate a simulation framework for capturing uncertainty and presenting estimates as prediction intervals for any region of interest of any size and composition within the study region. As a result, used in concert with previously published demographic estimates, our population estimates allowed for predictions of the population under 5 in ten administrative wards that fit strongly with reference data collected during polio vaccination campaigns.« less

Methodological Quality Assessment of Meta-analyses in Endodontics.

PubMed

Kattan, Sereen; Lee, Su-Min; Kohli, Meetu R; Setzer, Frank C; Karabucak, Bekir

2018-01-01

The objectives of this review were to assess the methodological quality of published meta-analyses related to endodontics using the assessment of multiple systematic reviews (AMSTAR) tool and to provide a follow-up to previously published reviews. Three electronic databases were searched for eligible studies according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria: Embase via Ovid, The Cochrane Library, and Scopus. The electronic search was amended by a hand search of 6 dental journals (International Endodontic Journal; Journal of Endodontics; Australian Endodontic Journal; Oral Surgery, Oral Medicine, Oral Pathology, Oral Radiology; Endodontics and Dental Traumatology; and Journal of Dental Research). The searches were conducted to include articles published after July 2009, and the deadline for inclusion of the meta-analyses was November 30, 2016. The AMSTAR assessment tool was used to evaluate the methodological quality of all included studies. A total of 36 reports of meta-analyses were included. The overall quality of the meta-analyses reports was found to be medium, with an estimated mean overall AMSTAR score of 7.25 (95% confidence interval, 6.59-7.90). The most poorly assessed areas were providing an a priori design, the assessment of the status of publication, and publication bias. In recent publications in the field of endodontics, the overall quality of the reported meta-analyses is medium according to AMSTAR. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation in protein specific antigen detected prostate cancer and the effect of control selection on genetic association studies

PubMed Central

Knipe, Duleeka W; Evans, David M; Kemp, John P.; Eeles, Rosalind; Easton, Douglas F; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Al Olama, Ali Amin; Benlloch, Sara; Donovan, Jenny L.; Hamdy, Freddie C.; Neal, David E

2014-01-01

Background Only a minority of the genetic component of prostate cancer (PrCa) risk has been explained. Some observed associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with PrCa might arise from associations of these SNPs with circulating prostate specific antigen (PSA) because PSA values are used to select controls. Methods We undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of screen detected PrCa (ProtecT 1146 cases and 1804 controls); meta-analysed the results with those from the previously published UK Genetic Prostate Cancer Study (1854 cases and 1437 controls); investigated associations of SNPs with PrCa using either ‘low’ (PSA <0.5ng/ml) or ‘high’ (PSA ≥3ng/ml, biopsy negative) PSA controls; and investigated associations of SNPs with PSA. Results The ProtecT GWAS confirmed previously reported associations of PrCa at 3 loci: 10q11.23, 17q24.3 and 19q13.33. The meta-analysis confirmed associations of PrCa with SNPs near 4 previously identified loci (8q24.21,10q11.23, 17q24.3 and 19q13.33). When comparing PrCa cases with low PSA controls, alleles at genetic markers rs1512268, rs445114, rs10788160, rs11199874, rs17632542, rs266849 and rs2735839 were associated with an increased risk of PrCa, but the effect-estimates were attenuated to the null when using high PSA controls (p for heterogeneity in effect-estimates<0.04). We found a novel inverse association of rs9311171-T with circulating PSA. Conclusions Differences in effect estimates for PrCa observed when comparing low vs. high PSA controls, may be explained by associations of these SNPs with PSA. Impact These findings highlight the need for inferences from genetic studies of PrCa risk to carefully consider the influence of control selection criteria. PMID:24753544

Defense Communications Agency Cost and Planning Factors Manual. Revised

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-03-01

the Time-Phased Fiscal Year Funding Schedule. Using estimated leadtimes required for each identifiable milestone, estimate the funding to be incurred...for each fiscal year, making sure to back off the time required for the conceptual phase, the procurement phase, and the training and operational...39-1 (To be published later) 40. FISCAL -YEAR TIME PHASING OF COST ESTIMATE ........... 40-1 (To be published later) 41. DISCOUNTING

Status of linear boundary-layer stability and the e to the nth method, with emphasis on swept-wing applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hefner, J. N.; Bushnell, D. M.

1980-01-01

The-state-of-the-art for the application of linear stability theory and the e to the nth power method for transition prediction and laminar flow control design are summarized, with analyses of previously published low disturbance, swept wing data presented. For any set of transition data with similar stream distrubance levels and spectra, the e to the nth power method for estimating the beginning of transition works reasonably well; however, the value of n can vary significantly, depending upon variations in disturbance field or receptivity. Where disturbance levels are high, the values of n are appreciably below the usual average value of 9 to 10 obtained for relatively low disturbance levels. It is recommended that the design of laminar flow control systems be based on conservative estimates of n and that, in considering the values of n obtained from different analytical approaches or investigations, the designer explore the various assumptions which entered into the analyses.

Determination of the forces imposed by micro and nanopipettes during DOPC: DOPS liposome manipulation.

PubMed

Allen, Kathleen B; Layton, Bradley E

2009-11-01

Using micropipette-based probing methods and an image processing algorithm for measuring deformation, the bending energies of aspirated DOPC:DOPS liposomes were estimated both before and during manipulation with an injection pipette. We found that unlike cells, which are penetrable with pipettes as large as 2mum in diameter and at speeds as slow as 4mum/s, liposomes, without a cytoskeleton to resist deformation, are impenetrable with pipettes as small as 25nm in diameter and at speeds as great as 4000mum/s. Using energy calculations and the previously published mechanical properties of DOPC:DOPS liposomes, the forces that injection pipettes of various sizes can exert onto liposomes during probing were estimated. Forces ranged from approximately 1pN to 6pN, and the forces exerted onto these liposomes increased as pipette size diminished. The quantification of the amount of force exerted on liposomes or cells during manipulation can assist in minimizing the damage during single-liposome, single-cell, or single-organelle injections and surgeries.

Who will have health insurance in the future? An updated projection.

PubMed

Young, Richard A; DeVoe, Jennifer E

2012-01-01

The passage of the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) in the United States put the issues of health care reform and health care costs back in the national spotlight. DeVoe and colleagues previously estimated that the cost of a family health insurance premium would equal the median household income by the year 2025. A slowdown in health care spending tied to the recent economic downturn and the passage of the PPACA occurred after this model was published. In this updated model, we estimate that this threshold will be crossed in 2033, and under favorable assumptions the PPACA may extend this date only to 2037. Continuing to make incremental changes in US health policy will likely not bend the cost curve, which has eluded policy makers for the past 50 years. Private health insurance will become increasingly unaffordable to low-to-middle-income Americans unless major changes are made in the US health care system.

Interactive object modelling based on piecewise planar surface patches.

PubMed

Prankl, Johann; Zillich, Michael; Vincze, Markus

2013-06-01

Detecting elements such as planes in 3D is essential to describe objects for applications such as robotics and augmented reality. While plane estimation is well studied, table-top scenes exhibit a large number of planes and methods often lock onto a dominant plane or do not estimate 3D object structure but only homographies of individual planes. In this paper we introduce MDL to the problem of incrementally detecting multiple planar patches in a scene using tracked interest points in image sequences. Planar patches are reconstructed and stored in a keyframe-based graph structure. In case different motions occur, separate object hypotheses are modelled from currently visible patches and patches seen in previous frames. We evaluate our approach on a standard data set published by the Visual Geometry Group at the University of Oxford [24] and on our own data set containing table-top scenes. Results indicate that our approach significantly improves over the state-of-the-art algorithms.

American black bear denning behavior: Observations and applications using remote photography

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, A.S.; Fox, J.A.; Olfenbuttel, C.; Vaughan, M.B.

2004-01-01

Researchers examining American black bear (Ursus americanus) denning behavior have relied primarily on den-site visitation and radiotelemetry to gather data. Repeated den-site visits are time-intensive and may disturb denning bears, possibly causing den abandonment, whereas radiotelemetry is sufficient only to provide gross data on den emergence. We used remote cameras to examine black bear denning behavior in the Allegheny Mountains of western Virginia during March-May 2003. We deployed cameras at 10 den sites and used 137 pictures of black bears. Adult female black bears exhibited greater extra-den activity than we expected prior to final den emergence, which occurred between April 12 and May 6, 2003. Our technique provided more accurate den-emergence estimation than previously published methodologies. Additionally, we observed seldom-documented behaviors associated with den exits and estimated cub age at den emergence. Remote cameras can provide unique insights into denning ecology, and we describe their potential application to reproductive, survival, and behavioral research.

Using GPS radio occultations to infer the water vapor feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergados, Panagiotis; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Ao, Chi O.; Fetzer, Eric J.

2016-11-01

The air refractive index at L-band frequencies depends on the air's water vapor content and density. Exploiting this relationship, we derive for the first time a theoretical model to infer the specific humidity response to surface temperature variations, dq/dTs, given knowledge of how the air refractive index and temperature vary with surface temperature. We validate this model by using 1.2-1.6 GHz Global Positioning System Radio Occultation (GPS RO) observations from 2007 to 2010 at 250 hPa, where the water vapor feedback on surface warming is strongest. The dq/dTs estimation from GPS RO observations shows excellent agreement with previously published results and the responses estimated by using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and the NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications data sets. Because of their high sensitivity to fractional changes in water vapor, current and future GPS RO observations show great promise in monitoring climate feedback and their trends.

Football-related injuries among 6- to 17-year-olds treated in US emergency departments, 1990-2007.

PubMed

Nation, Adam D; Nelson, Nicolas G; Yard, Ellen E; Comstock, R Dawn; McKenzie, Lara B

2011-03-01

Football is one of the most popular youth sports in the United States despite the high rate of injuries. Previously published studies have investigated football-related injuries that occurred in organized play but have excluded those that occurred during unorganized play. Through use of the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System database, cases of football-related injuries were identified for analysis. Sample weights were used to calculate national estimates. An estimated 5 252 721 children and adolescents 6 to 17 years old were treated in US emergency departments for football-related injuries. The annual number of cases increased by 26.5% over the 18-year study period. The 12- to 17-year-old age group accounted for 77.8% of all injuries and had nearly twice the odds of sustaining a concussion. The findings suggest the need for increased prevention efforts to lower the risk of football-related injury in children and adolescents.

Weighted analysis of paired microarray experiments.

PubMed

Kristiansson, Erik; Sjögren, Anders; Rudemo, Mats; Nerman, Olle

2005-01-01

In microarray experiments quality often varies, for example between samples and between arrays. The need for quality control is therefore strong. A statistical model and a corresponding analysis method is suggested for experiments with pairing, including designs with individuals observed before and after treatment and many experiments with two-colour spotted arrays. The model is of mixed type with some parameters estimated by an empirical Bayes method. Differences in quality are modelled by individual variances and correlations between repetitions. The method is applied to three real and several simulated datasets. Two of the real datasets are of Affymetrix type with patients profiled before and after treatment, and the third dataset is of two-colour spotted cDNA type. In all cases, the patients or arrays had different estimated variances, leading to distinctly unequal weights in the analysis. We suggest also plots which illustrate the variances and correlations that affect the weights computed by our analysis method. For simulated data the improvement relative to previously published methods without weighting is shown to be substantial.

Preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Pothoven, Steven A.; Schneeberger, Philip J.; O'Connor, Daniel V.; Brandt, Stephen B.

2005-01-01

We conducted a preliminary evaluation of a lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) bioenergetics model by applying the model to size-at-age data for lake whitefish from northern Lake Michigan. We then compared estimates of gross growth efficiency (GGE) from our bioenergetis model with previously published estimates of GGE for bloater (C. hoyi) in Lake Michigan and for lake whitefish in Quebec. According to our model, the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.075 to 0.02 as age increased from 2 to 5 years. In contrast, the GGE of lake whitefish in Quebec inland waters decreased from 0.12 to 0.05 for the same ages. When our swimming-speed submodel was replaced with a submodel that had been used for lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) in Lake Michigan and an observed predator energy density for Lake Michigan lake whitefish was employed, our model predicted that the GGE of Lake Michigan lake whitefish decreased from 0.12 to 0.04 as age increased from 2 to 5 years.

Nonstationary multivariate modeling of cerebral autoregulation during hypercapnia.

PubMed

Kostoglou, Kyriaki; Debert, Chantel T; Poulin, Marc J; Mitsis, Georgios D

2014-05-01

We examined the time-varying characteristics of cerebral autoregulation and hemodynamics during a step hypercapnic stimulus by using recursively estimated multivariate (two-input) models which quantify the dynamic effects of mean arterial blood pressure (ABP) and end-tidal CO2 tension (PETCO2) on middle cerebral artery blood flow velocity (CBFV). Beat-to-beat values of ABP and CBFV, as well as breath-to-breath values of PETCO2 during baseline and sustained euoxic hypercapnia were obtained in 8 female subjects. The multiple-input, single-output models used were based on the Laguerre expansion technique, and their parameters were updated using recursive least squares with multiple forgetting factors. The results reveal the presence of nonstationarities that confirm previously reported effects of hypercapnia on autoregulation, i.e. a decrease in the MABP phase lead, and suggest that the incorporation of PETCO2 as an additional model input yields less time-varying estimates of dynamic pressure autoregulation obtained from single-input (ABP-CBFV) models. Copyright © 2013 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Economic and Social Impact of Pertussis Among Adolescents in San Diego County.

PubMed

Varan, Aiden K; Harriman, Kathleen H; Winter, Kathleen; Thun, Melissa D; McDonald, Eric C

2016-02-01

During recent pertussis epidemics, adolescents have experienced a large burden of disease. We assessed the impact of pertussis among San Diego adolescents and their households. Parents of pertussis patients aged 13-17 years were surveyed about health care utilization, missed work and school, and other factors. Costs of medical visits, medication use, and lost wages were estimated. The parents of 53 (of 108 [49%]) eligible 2013 pertussis patients were interviewed; 51 (96%) of these patients previously received tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccine. Medical visits included primary care (81%), urgent care (11%), and emergency department (9%); all patients received antibiotics. Forty-seven households (89%) received a post-exposure prophylaxis recommendation, and five (9%) reported ≥1 unpaid parental leave day. Thirty-eight patients (72%) missed ≥1 school day (mean = 5.4 days). Societal costs were estimated at $315.15 per household and $236,047.35 in San Diego during 2013-2014. Even among vaccinated adolescents, pertussis can result in considerable societal costs. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Interactive object modelling based on piecewise planar surface patches☆

PubMed Central

Prankl, Johann; Zillich, Michael; Vincze, Markus

2013-01-01

Detecting elements such as planes in 3D is essential to describe objects for applications such as robotics and augmented reality. While plane estimation is well studied, table-top scenes exhibit a large number of planes and methods often lock onto a dominant plane or do not estimate 3D object structure but only homographies of individual planes. In this paper we introduce MDL to the problem of incrementally detecting multiple planar patches in a scene using tracked interest points in image sequences. Planar patches are reconstructed and stored in a keyframe-based graph structure. In case different motions occur, separate object hypotheses are modelled from currently visible patches and patches seen in previous frames. We evaluate our approach on a standard data set published by the Visual Geometry Group at the University of Oxford [24] and on our own data set containing table-top scenes. Results indicate that our approach significantly improves over the state-of-the-art algorithms. PMID:24511219

Intra- and inter-basin mercury comparisons: Importance of basin scale and time-weighted methylmercury estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bradley, Paul M.; Journey, Celeste A.; Bringham, Mark E.; Burns, Douglas A.; Button, Daniel T.; Riva-Murray, Karen

2013-01-01

To assess inter-comparability of fluvial mercury (Hg) observations at substantially different scales, Hg concentrations, yields, and bivariate-relations were evaluated at nested-basin locations in the Edisto River, South Carolina and Hudson River, New York. Differences between scales were observed for filtered methylmercury (FMeHg) in the Edisto (attributed to wetland coverage differences) but not in the Hudson. Total mercury (THg) concentrations and bivariate-relationships did not vary substantially with scale in either basin. Combining results of this and a previously published multi-basin study, fish Hg correlated strongly with sampled water FMeHg concentration (p = 0.78; p = 0.003) and annual FMeHg basin yield (p = 0.66; p = 0.026). Improved correlation (p = 0.88; p < 0.0001) was achieved with time-weighted mean annual FMeHg concentrations estimated from basin-specific LOADEST models and daily streamflow. Results suggest reasonable scalability and inter-comparability for different basin sizes if wetland area or related MeHg-source-area metrics are considered.

The NIEHS Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation Project.

PubMed Central

Bristol, D W; Wachsman, J T; Greenwell, A

1996-01-01

The Predictive-Toxicology Evaluation (PTE) project conducts collaborative experiments that subject the performance of predictive-toxicology (PT) methods to rigorous, objective evaluation in a uniquely informative manner. Sponsored by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, it takes advantage of the ongoing testing conducted by the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP) to estimate the true error of models that have been applied to make prospective predictions on previously untested, noncongeneric-chemical substances. The PTE project first identifies a group of standardized NTP chemical bioassays either scheduled to be conducted or are ongoing, but not yet complete. The project then announces and advertises the evaluation experiment, disseminates information about the chemical bioassays, and encourages researchers from a wide variety of disciplines to publish their predictions in peer-reviewed journals, using whatever approaches and methods they feel are best. A collection of such papers is published in this Environmental Health Perspectives Supplement, providing readers the opportunity to compare and contrast PT approaches and models, within the context of their prospective application to an actual-use situation. This introduction to this collection of papers on predictive toxicology summarizes the predictions made and the final results obtained for the 44 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of the first PTE experiment (PTE-1) and presents information that identifies the 30 chemical carcinogenesis bioassays of PTE-2, along with a table of prediction sets that have been published to date. It also provides background about the origin and goals of the PTE project, outlines the special challenge associated with estimating the true error of models that aspire to predict open-system behavior, and summarizes what has been learned to date. PMID:8933048

Greater first year effectiveness drives favorable cost-effectiveness of brand risedronate versus generic or brand alendronate: modeled Canadian analysis

PubMed Central

Papaioannou, A.; Thompson, M. F.; Pasquale, M. K.; Adachi, J. D.

2016-01-01

Summary The RisedronatE and ALendronate (REAL) study provided a unique opportunity to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses based on effectiveness data from real-world clinical practice. Using a published osteoporosis model, the researchers found risedronate to be cost-effective compared to generic or brand alendronate for the treatment of Canadian postmenopausal osteoporosis in patients aged 65 years or older. Introduction The REAL study provides robust data on the real-world performance of risedronate and alendronate. The study used these data to assess the cost-effectiveness of brand risedronate versus generic or brand alendronate for treatment of Canadian postmenopausal osteoporosis patients aged 65 years or older. Methods A previously published osteoporosis model was populated with Canadian cost and epidemiological data, and the estimated fracture risk was validated. Effectiveness data were derived from REAL and utility data from published sources. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained was estimated from a Canadian public payer perspective, and comprehensive sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The base case analysis found fewer fractures and more QALYs in the risedronate cohort, providing an incremental cost per QALY gained of $3,877 for risedronate compared to generic alendronate. The results were most sensitive to treatment duration and effectiveness. Conclusions The REAL study provided a unique opportunity to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses based on effectiveness data taken from real-world clinical practice. The analysis supports the cost-effectiveness of risedronate compared to generic or brand alendronate and the use of risedronate for the treatment of osteoporotic Canadian women aged 65 years or older with a BMD T-score ≤−2.5. PMID:18008100

Thermal Rate Coefficients for the Astrochemical Process C + CH+ → C2+ + H by Ring Polymer Molecular Dynamics.

PubMed

Rampino, Sergio; Suleimanov, Yury V

2016-12-22

Thermal rate coefficients for the astrochemical reaction C + CH + → C 2 + + H were computed in the temperature range 20-300 K by using novel rate theory based on ring polymer molecular dynamics (RPMD) on a recently published bond-order based potential energy surface and compared with previous Langevin capture model (LCM) and quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations. Results show that there is a significant discrepancy between the RPMD rate coefficients and the previous theoretical results that can lead to overestimation of the rate coefficients for the title reaction by several orders of magnitude at very low temperatures. We argue that this can be attributed to a very challenging energy profile along the reaction coordinate for the title reaction, not taken into account in extenso by either the LCM or QCT approximation. In the absence of any rigorous quantum mechanical or experimental results, the computed RPMD rate coefficients represent state-of-the-art estimates to be included in astrochemical databases and kinetic networks.

Carbon isotope compositions of terrestrial C3 plants as indicators of (paleo)ecology and (paleo)climate.

PubMed

Kohn, Matthew J

2010-11-16

A broad compilation of modern carbon isotope compositions in all C3 plant types shows a monotonic increase in δ(13)C with decreasing mean annual precipitation (MAP) that differs from previous models. Corrections for temperature, altitude, or latitude are smaller than previously estimated. As corrected for altitude, latitude, and the δ(13)C of atmospheric CO(2), these data permit refined interpretation of MAP, paleodiet, and paleoecology of ecosystems dominated by C3 plants, either prior to 7-8 million years ago (Ma), or more recently at mid- to high latitudes. Twenty-nine published paleontological studies suggest preservational or scientific bias toward dry ecosystems, although wet ecosystems are also represented. Unambiguous isotopic evidence for C4 plants is lacking prior to 7-8 Ma, and hominid ecosystems at 4.4 Ma show no isotopic evidence for dense forests. Consideration of global plant biomass indicates that average δ(13)C of C3 plants is commonly overestimated by approximately 2‰.

Epitaxial Relationships between Calcium Carbonate and Inorganic Substrates

PubMed Central

Yang, Taewook; Jho, Jae Young; Kim, Il Won

2014-01-01

The polymorph-selective crystallization of calcium carbonate has been studied in terms of epitaxial relationship between the inorganic substrates and the aragonite/calcite polymorphs with implication in bioinspired mineralization. EpiCalc software was employed to assess the previously published experimental results on two different groups of inorganic substrates: aragonitic carbonate crystals (SrCO3, PbCO3, and BaCO3) and a hexagonal crystal family (α-Al2O3, α-SiO2, and LiNbO3). The maximum size of the overlayer (aragonite or calcite) was calculated for each substrate based on a threshold value of the dimensionless potential to estimate the relative nucleation preference of the polymorphs of calcium carbonate. The results were in good agreement with previous experimental observations, although stereochemical effects between the overlayer and substrate should be separately considered when existed. In assessing the polymorph-selective nucleation, the current method appeared to provide a better tool than the oversimplified mismatch parameters without invoking time-consuming molecular simulation\\. PMID:25226539

How much does emotional valence of action outcomes affect temporal binding?

PubMed

Moreton, Joshua; Callan, Mitchell J; Hughes, Gethin

2017-03-01

Temporal binding refers to the compression of the perceived time interval between voluntary actions and their sensory consequences. Research suggests that the emotional content of an action outcome can modulate the effects of temporal binding. We attempted to conceptually replicate these findings using a time interval estimation task and different emotionally-valenced action outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2) than used in previous research. Contrary to previous findings, we found no evidence that temporal binding was affected by the emotional valence of action outcomes. After validating our stimuli for equivalence of perceived emotional valence and arousal (Experiment 3), in Experiment 4 we directly replicated Yoshie and Haggard's (2013) original experiment using sound vocalizations as action outcomes and failed to detect a significant effect of emotion on temporal binding. These studies suggest that the emotional valence of action outcomes exerts little influence on temporal binding. The potential implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Levels in 227Ac populated in the 230Th( p, α) reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, D. G.; Garrett, P. E.; Qu, Tao

2003-09-01

The 230,232Th(p, α) 227,229Ac reactions were studied using 20 MeV protons and a magnetic spectrograph to analyze the reaction products. Relative populations of levels in 229Ac correlated well with previously published (t, α) results for the same final levels, showing that the similarity of the two reactions observed empirically in the deformed rare earth region extends to actinides. The most strongly populated level in 227Ac is at 639 keV, and is assigned as the 1/2 +[4 0 0] bandhead. The 435 keV level, previously adopted as the 1/2 +[6 6 0] bandhead, also has a significant intensity that is attributed to Δ N=2 mixing between these two K=1/2 proton orbitals. The Δ N=2 matrix element estimated from these data is ˜80 keV, similar to values observed for the same two Nilsson states as neutron orbitals in the dysprosium isotopes.

Accuracy and reliability testing of two methods to measure internal rotation of the glenohumeral joint.

PubMed

Hall, Justin M; Azar, Frederick M; Miller, Robert H; Smith, Richard; Throckmorton, Thomas W

2014-09-01

We compared accuracy and reliability of a traditional method of measurement (most cephalad vertebral spinous process that can be reached by a patient with the extended thumb) to estimates made with the shoulder in abduction to determine if there were differences between the two methods. Six physicians with fellowship training in sports medicine or shoulder surgery estimated measurements in 48 healthy volunteers. Three were randomly chosen to make estimates of both internal rotation measurements for each volunteer. An independent observer made objective measurements on lateral scoliosis films (spinous process method) or with a goniometer (abduction method). Examiners were blinded to objective measurements as well as to previous estimates. Intraclass coefficients for interobserver reliability for the traditional method averaged 0.75, indicating good agreement among observers. The difference in vertebral level estimated by the examiner and the actual radiographic level averaged 1.8 levels. The intraclass coefficient for interobserver reliability for the abduction method averaged 0.81 for all examiners, indicating near-perfect agreement. Confidence intervals indicated that estimates were an average of 8° different from the objective goniometer measurements. Pearson correlation coefficients of intraobserver reliability for the abduction method averaged 0.94, indicating near-perfect agreement within observers. Confidence intervals demonstrated repeated estimates between 5° and 10° of the original. Internal rotation estimates made with the shoulder abducted demonstrated interobserver reliability superior to that of spinous process estimates, and reproducibility was high. On the basis of this finding, we now take glenohumeral internal rotation measurements with the shoulder in abduction and use a goniometer to maximize accuracy and objectivity. Copyright © 2014 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Different Coefficients and Exponents for Metabolic Body Weight in a Model to Estimate Individual Feed Intake for Growing-finishing Pigs

PubMed Central

Lee, S. A.; Kong, C.; Adeola, O.; Kim, B. G.

2016-01-01

Estimation of feed intake (FI) for individual animals within a pen is needed in situations where more than one animal share a feeder during feeding trials. A partitioning method (PM) was previously published as a model to estimate the individual FI (IFI). Briefly, the IFI of a pig within the pen was calculated by partitioning IFI into IFI for maintenance (IFIm) and IFI for growth. In the PM, IFIm is determined based on the metabolic body weight (BW), which is calculated using the coefficient of 106 and exponent of 0.75. Two simulation studies were conducted to test the hypothesis that the use of different coefficients and exponents for metabolic BW to calculate IFIm improves the accuracy of the estimates of IFI for pigs, and that PM is applied to pigs fed in group-housing systems. The accuracy of prediction represented by difference between actual and estimated IFI was compared using PM, ratio (RM), or averaging method (AM). In simulation studies 1 and 2, the PM estimated IFI better than the AM and RM during most of the periods (p<0.05). The use of 0.60 as the exponent and the coefficient of 197 to calculate metabolic BW did not improve the accuracy of the IFI estimates in both simulation studies 1 and 2. The results imply that the use of 197 kcal×kg BW0.60 as metabolizable energy for maintenance in PM does not improve the accuracy of IFI estimations compared with the use of 106 kcal×kg BW0.75 and that the PM estimates the IFI of pigs with greater accuracy compared with the averaging or ratio methods in group-housing systems. PMID:27608642

The Burden of Pulmonary Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Disease in the United States

PubMed Central

Strollo, Sara E.; Adjemian, Jennifer; Adjemian, Michael K.

2015-01-01

Rationale: State-specific case numbers and costs are critical for quantifying the burden of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial disease in the United States. Objectives: To estimate and project national and state annual cases of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease and associated direct medical costs. Methods: Available direct cost estimates of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease medical encounters were applied to nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence estimates derived from Medicare beneficiary data (2003–2007). Prevalence was adjusted for International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, undercoding and the inclusion of persons younger than 65 years of age. U.S. Census Bureau data identified 2010 and 2014 population counts and 2012 primary insurance-type distribution. Medical costs were reported in constant 2014 dollars. Projected 2014 estimates were adjusted for population growth and assumed a previously published 8% annual growth rate of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease prevalence. Measurements and Main Results: In 2010, we estimated 86,244 national cases, totaling to $815 million, of which 87% were inpatient related ($709 million) and 13% were outpatient related ($106 million). Annual state estimates varied from 48 to 12,544 cases ($503,000–$111 million), with a median of 1,208 cases ($11.5 million). Oceanic coastline states and Gulf States comprised 70% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease cases but 60% of the U.S. population. Medical encounters among individuals aged 65 years and older ($562 million) were twofold higher than those younger than 65 years of age ($253 million). Of all costs incurred, medications comprised 76% of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease expenditures. Projected 2014 estimates resulted in 181,037 national annual cases ($1.7 billion). Conclusions: For a relatively rare disease, the financial cost of nontuberculous mycobacterial disease is substantial, particularly among older adults. Better data on disease dynamics and more recent prevalence estimates will generate more robust estimates. PMID:26214350

Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

2015-12-01

Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

PubMed Central

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations. PMID:28462031

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.

Efficient flapping flight of pterosaurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strang, Karl Axel

In the late eighteenth century, humans discovered the first pterosaur fossil remains and have been fascinated by their existence ever since. Pterosaurs exploited their membrane wings in a sophisticated manner for flight control and propulsion, and were likely the most efficient and effective flyers ever to inhabit our planet. The flapping gait is a complex combination of motions that sustains and propels an animal in the air. Because pterosaurs were so large with wingspans up to eleven meters, if they could have sustained flapping flight, they would have had to achieve high propulsive efficiencies. Identifying the wing motions that contribute the most to propulsive efficiency is key to understanding pterosaur flight, and therefore to shedding light on flapping flight in general and the design of efficient ornithopters. This study is based on published results for a very well-preserved specimen of Coloborhynchus robustus, for which the joints are well-known and thoroughly described in the literature. Simplifying assumptions are made to estimate the characteristics that can not be inferred directly from the fossil remains. For a given animal, maximizing efficiency is equivalent to minimizing power at a given thrust and speed. We therefore aim at finding the flapping gait, that is the joint motions, that minimize the required flapping power. The power is computed from the aerodynamic forces created during a given wing motion. We develop an unsteady three-dimensional code based on the vortex-lattice method, which correlates well with published results for unsteady motions of rectangular wings. In the aerodynamic model, the rigid pterosaur wing is defined by the position of the bones. In the aeroelastic model, we add the flexibility of the bones and of the wing membrane. The nonlinear structural behavior of the membrane is reduced to a linear modal decomposition, assuming small deflections about the reference wing geometry. The reference wing geometry is computed for the membrane subject to glide loads and pretension from the wing joint positions. The flapping gait is optimized in a two-stage procedure. First the design space is explored using a binary genetic algorithm. The best design points are then used as starting points in a sequential quadratic programming optimization algorithm. This algorithm is used to refine the solutions by precisely satisfying the constraints. The refined solutions are found in generally less than twenty major iterations and constraints are violated generally by less than 0.1%. We find that the optimal motions are in agreement with previous results for simple wing motions. By adding joint motions, the required flapping power is reduced by 7% to 17%. Because of the large uncertainties for some estimates, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimized flapping gait. We find that the optimal motions are sensitive mainly to flight speed, body accelerations, and to the material properties of the wing membrane. The optimal flight speed found correlates well with other studies of pterosaur flapping flight, and is 31% to 37% faster than previous estimates based on glide performance. Accounting for the body accelerations yields an increase of 10% to 16% in required flapping power. When including the aeroelastic effects, the optimal flapping gait is only slightly modified to accommodate for the deflections of stiff membranes. For a flexible membrane, the motion is significantly modified and the power increased by up to 57%. Finally, the flapping gait and required power compare well with published results for similar wing motions. Some published estimates of required power assumed a propulsive efficiency of 100%, whereas the propulsive efficiency computed for Coloborhynchus robustus ranges between 54% and 87%.

15 CFR 10.10 - Review of published standards.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review of published standards. 10.10... DEVELOPMENT OF VOLUNTARY PRODUCT STANDARDS § 10.10 Review of published standards. (a) Each standard published... considered until a replacement standard is published. (b) Each standard published under these or previous...

ISC-GEM: Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009), III. Re-computed MS and mb, proxy MW, final magnitude composition and completeness assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Giacomo, Domenico; Bondár, István; Storchak, Dmitry A.; Engdahl, E. Robert; Bormann, Peter; Harris, James

2015-02-01

This paper outlines the re-computation and compilation of the magnitudes now contained in the final ISC-GEM Reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009). The catalogue is available via the ISC website (http://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/). The available re-computed MS and mb provided an ideal basis for deriving new conversion relationships to moment magnitude MW. Therefore, rather than using previously published regression models, we derived new empirical relationships using both generalized orthogonal linear and exponential non-linear models to obtain MW proxies from MS and mb. The new models were tested against true values of MW, and the newly derived exponential models were then preferred to the linear ones in computing MW proxies. For the final magnitude composition of the ISC-GEM catalogue, we preferred directly measured MW values as published by the Global CMT project for the period 1976-2009 (plus intermediate-depth earthquakes between 1962 and 1975). In addition, over 1000 publications have been examined to obtain direct seismic moment M0 and, therefore, also MW estimates for 967 large earthquakes during 1900-1978 (Lee and Engdahl, 2015) by various alternative methods to the current GCMT procedure. In all other instances we computed MW proxy values by converting our re-computed MS and mb values into MW, using the newly derived non-linear regression models. The final magnitude composition is an improvement in terms of magnitude homogeneity compared to previous catalogues. The magnitude completeness is not homogeneous over the 110 years covered by the ISC-GEM catalogue. Therefore, seismicity rate estimates may be strongly affected without a careful time window selection. In particular, the ISC-GEM catalogue appears to be complete down to MW 5.6 starting from 1964, whereas for the early instrumental period the completeness varies from ∼7.5 to 6.2. Further time and resources would be necessary to homogenize the magnitude of completeness over the entire catalogue length.

Smokers who report smoking but do not consider themselves smokers: a phenomenon in need of further attention.

PubMed

Leas, Eric C; Zablocki, Rong W; Edland, Steven D; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2015-07-01

Heightened stigma surrounding the action of smoking may decrease the likelihood that individuals who engage in smoking identify with the label 'smoker'. Non-identifying smokers (NIS) may undermine accurate smoking prevalence estimates and can be overlooked by tobacco control efforts. We sought to characterise NIS in a cross-sectional study using a sample representative of the population of adults (>18 years) in California who reported smoking at least 100 cigarettes in their lifetime, smoking at least some days and at least once in the last 30 days (n=1698). Individuals were considered NIS if they met the above criteria and answered 'no' when asked if they 'considered themselves a smoker'. We estimate that 395 928 (SD=54 126) NIS were living in California in 2011 (a prevalence of 12.3% of all smokers in California). The odds of being NIS were higher among non-daily smokers who were previously daily smokers (adjusted OR (AOR)=7.63, 95% CI 2.67 to 21.8) or were never previously daily smokers (AOR=7.14, CI 2.78 to 18.3) compared with daily smokers. The odds of being an NIS were also higher among those who did not believe they were addicted to cigarettes (AOR=3.84, CI 1.68 to 9.22), were older than 65 years (vs less than 45 years) (AOR=3.35, CI 1.16 to 9.75) or were from ethnic minorities including Black and Asian (vs non-Hispanic white) (AOR=3.16, CI 1.19 to 8.49). Smoking surveillance should restructure selection criteria to more accurately account for NIS in areas with high stigma toward smokers. Targeted interventions may be needed for NIS including educating healthcare providers to enquire more deeply into smoking habits. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Status and distribution of mangrove forests of the world using earth observation satellite data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Giri, C.; Ochieng, E.; Tieszen, L.L.; Zhu, Z.; Singh, A.; Loveland, T.; Masek, J.; Duke, N.

2011-01-01

Aim Our scientific understanding of the extent and distribution of mangrove forests of the world is inadequate. The available global mangrove databases, compiled using disparate geospatial data sources and national statistics, need to be improved. Here, we mapped the status and distributions of global mangroves using recently available Global Land Survey (GLS) data and the Landsat archive.Methods We interpreted approximately 1000 Landsat scenes using hybrid supervised and unsupervised digital image classification techniques. Each image was normalized for variation in solar angle and earth-sun distance by converting the digital number values to the top-of-the-atmosphere reflectance. Ground truth data and existing maps and databases were used to select training samples and also for iterative labelling. Results were validated using existing GIS data and the published literature to map 'true mangroves'.Results The total area of mangroves in the year 2000 was 137,760 km2 in 118 countries and territories in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Approximately 75% of world's mangroves are found in just 15 countries, and only 6.9% are protected under the existing protected areas network (IUCN I-IV). Our study confirms earlier findings that the biogeographic distribution of mangroves is generally confined to the tropical and subtropical regions and the largest percentage of mangroves is found between 5?? N and 5?? S latitude.Main conclusions We report that the remaining area of mangrove forest in the world is less than previously thought. Our estimate is 12.3% smaller than the most recent estimate by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. We present the most comprehensive, globally consistent and highest resolution (30 m) global mangrove database ever created. We developed and used better mapping techniques and data sources and mapped mangroves with better spatial and thematic details than previous studies. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A GPU-Accelerated 3-D Coupled Subsample Estimation Algorithm for Volumetric Breast Strain Elastography.

PubMed

Peng, Bo; Wang, Yuqi; Hall, Timothy J; Jiang, Jingfeng

2017-04-01

Our primary objective of this paper was to extend a previously published 2-D coupled subsample tracking algorithm for 3-D speckle tracking in the framework of ultrasound breast strain elastography. In order to overcome heavy computational cost, we investigated the use of a graphic processing unit (GPU) to accelerate the 3-D coupled subsample speckle tracking method. The performance of the proposed GPU implementation was tested using a tissue-mimicking phantom and in vivo breast ultrasound data. The performance of this 3-D subsample tracking algorithm was compared with the conventional 3-D quadratic subsample estimation algorithm. On the basis of these evaluations, we concluded that the GPU implementation of this 3-D subsample estimation algorithm can provide high-quality strain data (i.e., high correlation between the predeformation and the motion-compensated postdeformation radio frequency echo data and high contrast-to-noise ratio strain images), as compared with the conventional 3-D quadratic subsample algorithm. Using the GPU implementation of the 3-D speckle tracking algorithm, volumetric strain data can be achieved relatively fast (approximately 20 s per volume [2.5 cm ×2.5 cm ×2.5 cm]).

Quantification of burnout in emergency nurses: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Hong; Cheng, Bin; Zhu, Xiao Ping

2018-01-17

Previous studies showed increased levels of absenteeism, drug abuse, depression, and symptoms allied with burnout in emergency nurses. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the three dimensions of burnout in emergency nurses and estimate the proportion of nurses who experience higher than tolerable levels of burnout. A systematic search was conducted on PubMed, Scielo, Xueshu Baidu and Informa databases with a cut-off time between 1997 and 2017 to retrieve published papers in any language that had estimated the burnout levels in emergency nurses by using MBI scale. We identified a total of 11 eligible studies. The total mean estimate was moderate for emotional exhaustion (25.552), but clearly trending towards higher level, whereas depersonalization (10.383) and lack of personal accomplishment (30.652) showed higher burnouts levels. The proportion of emergency nurses suffering from high emotional exhaustion, high depersonalization, and low personal accomplishment was 40.5%, 44.3%, and 42.7%, respectively. Burnout is detrimental to achieving high-quality healthcare services and causes a loss of productivity. It is high time for nursing leader and management personnel to identify appropriate measures to counteract burnout. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental approach for thermal parameters estimation during glass forming process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdulhay, B.; Bourouga, B.; Alzetto, F.; Challita, C.

2016-10-01

In this paper, an experimental device designed and developedto estimate thermal conditions at the Glass / piston contact interface is presented. This deviceis made of two parts: the upper part contains the piston made of metal and a heating device to raise the temperature of the piston up to 500 °C. The lower part is composed of a lead crucible and a glass sample. The assembly is provided with a heating system, an induction furnace of 6 kW for heating the glass up to 950 °C.The developed experimental procedure has permitted in a previous published study to estimate the Thermal Contact ResistanceTCR using the inverse technique developed by Beck [1]. The semi-transparent character of the glass has been taken into account by an additional radiative heat flux and an equivalent thermal conductivity. After the set-up tests, reproducibility experiments for a specific contact pressure have been carried outwith a maximum dispersion that doesn't exceed 6%. Then, experiments under different conditions for a specific glass forming process regarding the application (Packaging, Buildings and Automobile) were carried out. The objective is to determine, experimentallyfor each application,the typical conditions capable to minimize the glass temperature loss during the glass forming process.

Chaotic dynamics outside Saturn’s main rings: The case of Atlas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, Stéfan; Cooper, Nicholas J.; El Moutamid, Maryame; Evans, Mike W.; Murray, Carl D.; Sicardy, Bruno

2014-11-01

We revisit in detail the dynamics of Atlas. From a fit to new Cassini ISS astrometric observations spanning February 2004 to August 2013, we estimate GM_Atlas=0.384+/-0.001 x 10^(-3)km^3s^(-2), a value 13% smaller than the previously published estimate but with an order of magnitude reduction in the uncertainty. Our numerically-derived orbit shows that Atlas is currently librating in both a 54:53 corotation eccentricity resonance (CER) and a 54:53 Lindblad eccentricity resonance (LER) with Prometheus. We demonstrate that the orbit of Atlas is chaotic, with a Lyapunov time of order 10 years, as a direct consequence of the coupled resonant interaction (CER/LER) with Prometheus. The interactions between the two resonances is investigated using the CoraLin analytical model (El Moutamid et al., 2014), showing that the chaotic zone fills almost all the corotation site occupied by the satellite’s orbit. Four 70 :67 apse-type mean motion resonances with Pandora are also overlapping, but these resonances have a much weaker effect on Atlas.We estimate the capture probabilities of Atlas into resonances with Prometheus as the orbits expand through tidal effects, and discuss the implications for the orbital evolution.

Decreasing the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes in South Africa: The Impact of Taxing Sugar-Sweetened Beverages

PubMed Central

Manyema, Mercy; Veerman, J. Lennert; Chola, Lumbwe; Tugendhaft, Aviva; Labadarios, Demetre; Hofman, Karen

2015-01-01

Introduction Type 2 diabetes poses an increasing public health burden in South Africa (SA) with obesity as the main driver of the epidemic. Consumption of sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) is linked to weight gain and reducing SSB consumption may significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the burden of diabetes in SA. Methods and Findings We constructed a life table-based model in Microsoft Excel (2010). Consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations were used to estimate changes in daily energy intake and its projected impact on BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Diabetes relative risk and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on diabetes burden. Diabetes cost estimates were obtained from the South African Council for Medical Schemes. Over 20 years, a 20% SSB tax could reduce diabetes incident cases by 106 000 in women (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 70 000–142 000) and by 54 000 in men (95% UI: 33 000–80 000); and prevalence in all adults by 4.0% (95% UI: 2.7%-5.3%). Cumulatively over twenty years, approximately 21 000 (95% UI: 14 000–29 000) adult T2DM-related deaths, 374 000 DALYs attributed to T2DM (95% UI: 299 000–463 000) and over ZAR10 billion T2DM healthcare costs (95% UI: ZAR6.8–14.0 billion) equivalent to USD860 million (95% UI: USD570 million–USD1.2 billion) may be averted. Conclusion Fiscal policy on SSBs has the potential to mitigate the diabetes epidemic in South Africa and contribute to the National Department of Health goals stated in the National NCD strategic plan. PMID:26575644

Estimated Exposure to Arsenic in Breastfed and Formula-Fed Infants in a United States Cohort

PubMed Central

Carignan, Courtney C.; Jackson, Brian P.; Farzan, Shohreh F.; Gandolfi, A. Jay; Punshon, Tracy; Folt, Carol L.; Karagas, Margaret R.

2015-01-01

Background: Previous studies indicate that concentrations of arsenic in breast milk are relatively low even in areas with high drinking-water arsenic. However, it is uncertain whether breastfeeding leads to reduced infant exposure to arsenic in regions with lower arsenic concentrations. Objective: We estimated the relative contributions of breast milk and formula to arsenic exposure during early infancy in a U.S. population. Methods: We measured arsenic in home tap water (n = 874), urine from 6-week-old infants (n = 72), and breast milk from mothers (n = 9) enrolled in the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study (NHBCS) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Using data from a 3-day food diary, we compared urinary arsenic across infant feeding types and developed predictive exposure models to estimate daily arsenic intake from breast milk and formula. Results: Urinary arsenic concentrations were generally low (median, 0.17 μg/L; maximum, 2.9 μg/L) but 7.5 times higher for infants fed exclusively with formula than for infants fed exclusively with breast milk (β = 2.02; 95% CI: 1.21, 2.83; p < 0.0001, adjusted for specific gravity). Similarly, the median estimated daily arsenic intake by NHBCS infants was 5.5 times higher for formula-fed infants (0.22 μg/kg/day) than for breastfed infants (0.04 μg/kg/day). Given median arsenic concentrations measured in NHBCS tap water and previously published for formula powder, formula powder was estimated to account for ~ 70% of median exposure among formula-fed NHBCS infants. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that breastfed infants have lower arsenic exposure than formula-fed infants, and that both formula powder and drinking water can be sources of exposure for U.S. infants. Citation: Carignan CC, Cottingham KL, Jackson BP, Farzan SF, Gandolfi AJ, Punshon T, Folt CL, Karagas MR. 2015. Estimated exposure to arsenic in breastfed and formula-fed infants in a United States cohort. Environ Health Perspect 123:500–506; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408789 PMID:25707031

Crustal shortening and structural architecture of the Interandean and Subandean zones of southern Bolivia (21°S): Constraints from a new balanced cross section

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, R. B.; Long, S. P.; Horton, B. K.; Calle, A.; Ramirez, V.

2015-12-01

Structural insights obtained from balanced cross sections, including thrust belt geometry, location of footwall ramps, and crustal shortening estimates, provide key information for testing model predictions of orogen dynamics (e.g., Cordilleran cyclicity, critical taper theory). New results from geologic mapping along an east-west transect in the central Andes are integrated with existing geophysical data to construct a balanced cross section across the Interandean (IAZ) and Subandean (SAZ) zones of southern Bolivia at 21°S, in order to define thrust belt geometry and estimate crustal shortening. The IAZ consists of a doubly vergent zone of 2-4 km-thick thrust sheets of mainly Silurian-Devonian rocks, which are structurally elevated ~10 km relative to equivalent SAZ levels to the east. Notably, our proposed IAZ geometry differs from published geometries that lack significant west-directed backthrusts. The SAZ is defined by regional-scale, fault-bend folds (10-20 km wavelength, 4-6 km amplitude) that exhume rocks as deep as Carboniferous above a 10-12 km-deep regional décollement in Silurian rocks. Previous studies have interpreted IAZ and SAZ shortening to be balanced by slip on two separate basement megathrust sheets at depth. We estimate 151 km (44%) of total east-west shortening in the IAZ (71 km) and SAZ (80 km), which is similar to a previous estimate (144 km, 42%). Importantly, our estimate of SAZ shortening restores the leading edge of the basement thrust sheet feeding displacement into the SAZ back to a corresponding footwall ramp that is constrained by a seismic reflection profile 90 km along strike to the south. Our shortening magnitudes are similar to nearby estimates to the north and south, which range between 60-86 km for the SAZ and 43-96 km for the IAZ. Future work will continue the cross section westward into the Eastern Cordillera hinterland, and explore potential variations in the geometry and style of basement deformation.

Volume of Valley Networks on Mars and Its Hydrologic Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, W.; Cang, X.; Howard, A. D.; Heo, J.

2015-12-01

Valley networks on Mars are river-like features that offer the best evidence for water activities in its geologic past. Previous studies have extracted valley network lines automatically from digital elevation model (DEM) data and manually from remotely sensed images. The volume of material removed by valley networks is an important parameter that could help us infer the amount of water needed to carve the valleys. A progressive black top hat (PBTH) transformation algorithm has been adapted from image processing to extract valley volume and successfully applied to simulated landform and Ma'adim Valles, Mars. However, the volume of valley network excavation on Mars has not been estimated on a global scale. In this study, the PBTH method was applied to the whole Mars to estimate this important parameter. The process was automated with Python in ArcGIS. Polygons delineating the valley associated depressions were generated by using a multi-flow direction growth method, which started with selected high point seeds on a depth grid (essentially an inverted valley) created by PBTH transformation and grew outward following multi-flow direction on the depth grid. Two published versions of valley network lines were integrated to automatically select depression polygons that represent the valleys. Some crater depressions that are connected with valleys and thus selected in the previous step were removed by using information from a crater database. Because of large distortion associated with global dataset in projected maps, the volume of each cell within a valley was calculated using the depth of the cell multiplied by the spherical area of the cell. The volumes of all the valley cells were then summed to produce the estimate of global valley excavation volume. Our initial result of this estimate was ~2.4×1014 m3. Assuming a sediment density of 2900 kg/m3, a porosity of 0.35, and a sediment load of 1.5 kg/m3, the global volume of water needed to carve the valleys was estimated to be ~7.1×1017 m3. Because of the coarse resolution of MOLA data, this is a conservative lower bound. Comparing with the hypothesized northern ocean volume 2.3×1016 m3 estimated by Carr and Head (2003), our estimate of water volume suggests and confirms an active hydrologic cycle for early Mars. Further hydrologic analysis will improve the estimate accuracy.