Update to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Augustine, Chad

2016-10-01

The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

Improved Estimates of Thermodynamic Parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lawson, D. D.

1982-01-01

Techniques refined for estimating heat of vaporization and other parameters from molecular structure. Using parabolic equation with three adjustable parameters, heat of vaporization can be used to estimate boiling point, and vice versa. Boiling points and vapor pressures for some nonpolar liquids were estimated by improved method and compared with previously reported values. Technique for estimating thermodynamic parameters should make it easier for engineers to choose among candidate heat-exchange fluids for thermochemical cycles.

A historical reconstruction of ships' fuel consumption and emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endresen, Øyvind; Sørgârd, Eirik; Behrens, Hanna Lee; Brett, Per Olaf; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.

2007-06-01

Shipping activity has increased considerably over the last century and currently represents a significant contribution to the global emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases. Despite this, information about the historical development of fuel consumption and emissions is generally limited, with little data published pre-1950 and large deviations reported for estimates covering the last 3 decades. To better understand the historical development in ship emissions and the uncertainties associated with the estimates, we present fuel-based CO2 and SO2 emission inventories from 1925 up to 2002 and activity-based estimates from 1970 up to 2000. The global CO2 emissions from ships in 1925 have been estimated to 229 Tg (CO2), growing to about 634 Tg (CO2) in 2002. The corresponding SO2 emissions are about 2.5 Tg (SO2) and 8.5 Tg (SO2), respectively. Our activity-based estimates of fuel consumption from 1970 to 2000, covering all oceangoing civil ships above or equal to 100 gross tonnage (GT), are lower compared to previous activity-based studies. We have applied a more detailed model approach, which includes variation in the demand for sea transport, as well as operational and technological changes of the past. This study concludes that the main reason for the large deviations found in reported inventories is the applied number of days at sea. Moreover, our modeling indicates that the ship size and the degree of utilization of the fleet, combined with the shift to diesel engines, have been the major factors determining yearly fuel consumption. Interestingly, the model results from around 1973 suggest that the fleet growth is not necessarily followed by increased fuel consumption, as technical and operational characteristics have changed. Results from this study indicate that reported sales over the last 3 decades seems not to be significantly underreported as previous simplified activity-based studies have suggested. The results confirm our previously reported modeling estimates for year 2000. Previous activity-based studies have not considered ships less than 100 GT (e.g., today some 1.3 million fishing vessels), and we suggest that this fleet could account for an important part of the total fuel consumption (˜10%).

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC Program: FY 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slattery, Bob S.

2017-01-01

The objective of this work was to determine the realization rate of energy and cost savings from the Department of Energy’s Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) program based on information reported by the energy services companies (ESCOs) that are carrying out ESPC projects at federal sites. Information was extracted from 151 Measurement and Verification (M&V) reports to determine reported, estimated, and guaranteed cost savings and reported and estimated energy savings for the previous contract year. Because the quality of the reports varied, it was not possible to determine all of these parameters for each project.

Use of claims data to estimate annual cervical cancer screening percentages in Portland metropolitan area, Oregon.

PubMed

Abdullah, Nasreen; Laing, Robert S; Hariri, Susan; Young, Collette M; Schafer, Sean

2016-04-01

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine should reduce cervical dysplasia before cervical cancer. However, dysplasia diagnosis is screening-dependent. Accurate screening estimates are needed. To estimate the percentage of women in a geographic population that has had cervical cancer screening. We analyzed claims data for (Papanicolau) Pap tests from 2008-2012 to estimate the percentage of insured women aged 18-39 years screened. We estimated screening in uninsured women by dividing the percentage of insured Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey respondents reporting previous-year testing by the percentage of uninsured respondents reporting previous-year testing, and multiplying this ratio by claims-based estimates of insured women with previous-year screening. We calculated a simple weighted average of the two estimates to estimate overall screening percentage. We estimated credible intervals using Monte-Carlo simulations. During 2008-2012, an annual average of 29.6% of women aged 18-39 years were screened. Screening increased from 2008 to 2009 in all age groups. During 2009-2012, the screening percentages decreased for all groups, but declined most in women aged 18-20 years, from 21.5% to 5.4%. Within age groups, compared to 2009, credible intervals did not overlap during 2011 (except age group 21-29 years) and 2012, and credible intervals in the 18-20 year group did not overlap with older groups in any year. This introduces a novel method to estimate population-level cervical cancer screening. Overall, percentage of women screened in Portland, Oregon fell following changes in screening recommendations released in 2009 and later modified in 2012. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CHARACTERIZATION OF NITROUS OXIDE EMISSION SOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The report presents a global inventory of nitrous oxide (N2O) based on reevaluation of previous estimates and additions of previously uninventoried source categories. (NOTE: N2O is both a greenhouse gas and a precursor of nitric oxide (NO) which destroys stratospheric ozone.) The...

Breast and ovarian cancer risks to carriers of the BRCA1 5382insC and 185delAG and BRCA2 6174delT mutations: a combined analysis of 22 population based studies

PubMed Central

Antoniou, A; Pharoah, P; Narod, S; Risch, H; Eyfjord, J; Hopper, J; Olsson, H; Johannsson, O; Borg, A; Pasini, B; Radice, P; Manoukian, S; Eccles, D; Tang, N; Olah, E; Anton-Culver, H; Warner, E; Lubinski, J; Gronwald, J; Gorski, B; Tulinius, H; Thorlacius, S; Eerola, H; Nevanlinna, H; Syrjakoski, K; Kallioniemi, O; Thompson, D; Evans, C; Peto, J; Lalloo, F; Evans, D; Easton, D

2005-01-01

A recent report estimated the breast cancer risks in carriers of the three Ashkenazi founder mutations to be higher than previously published estimates derived from population based studies. In an attempt to confirm this, the breast and ovarian cancer risks associated with the three Ashkenazi founder mutations were estimated using families included in a previous meta-analysis of populatrion based studies. The estimated breast cancer risks for each of the founder BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations were similar to the corresponding estimates based on all BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations in the meta-analysis. These estimates appear to be consistent with the observed prevalence of the mutations in the Ashkenazi Jewish population. PMID:15994883

Factors influencing reporting and harvest probabilities in North American geese

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Moser, T.J.; Kendall, W.L.; Doherty, P.F.; White, Gary C.; Caswell, D.F.

2009-01-01

We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US10,20,30,50, or100) and control (0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95 CI 0.690.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.

77 FR 52059 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Revision of a Previously Approved Collection; Comments...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-28

... DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE [OMB Number 1103-0102] Agency Information Collection Activities; Revision of a Previously Approved Collection; Comments Requested; COPS Progress Report ACTION: 30-Day Notice... 5 CFR 1320.10. If you have comments especially on the estimated public burden or associated response...

Updated Global Burden of Cholera in Endemic Countries

PubMed Central

Ali, Mohammad; Nelson, Allyson R.; Lopez, Anna Lena; Sack, David A.

2015-01-01

Background The global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera. Methods/Principal Findings Countries were classified as cholera endemic, cholera non-endemic, or cholera-free based on whether a spatial regression model predicted an incidence rate over a certain threshold in at least three of five years (2008-2012). The at-risk populations were calculated for each country based on the percent of the country without sustainable access to improved sanitation facilities. Incidence rates from population-based published studies were used to calculate the estimated annual number of cases in endemic countries. The number of annual cholera deaths was calculated using inverse variance-weighted average case-fatality rate (CFRs) from literature-based CFR estimates. We found that approximately 1.3 billion people are at risk for cholera in endemic countries. An estimated 2.86 million cholera cases (uncertainty range: 1.3m-4.0m) occur annually in endemic countries. Among these cases, there are an estimated 95,000 deaths (uncertainty range: 21,000-143,000). Conclusion/Significance The global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control. PMID:26043000

Cuff-Free Blood Pressure Estimation Using Pulse Transit Time and Heart Rate.

PubMed

Wang, Ruiping; Jia, Wenyan; Mao, Zhi-Hong; Sclabassi, Robert J; Sun, Mingui

2014-10-01

It has been reported that the pulse transit time (PTT), the interval between the peak of the R-wave in electrocardiogram (ECG) and the fingertip photoplethysmogram (PPG), is related to arterial stiffness, and can be used to estimate the systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP). This phenomenon has been used as the basis to design portable systems for continuously cuff-less blood pressure measurement, benefiting numerous people with heart conditions. However, the PTT-based blood pressure estimation may not be sufficiently accurate because the regulation of blood pressure within the human body is a complex, multivariate physiological process. Considering the negative feedback mechanism in the blood pressure control, we introduce the heart rate (HR) and the blood pressure estimate in the previous step to obtain the current estimate. We validate this method using a clinical database. Our results show that the PTT, HR and previous estimate reduce the estimated error significantly when compared to the conventional PTT estimation approach (p<0.05).

A new methodological approach to adjust alcohol exposure distributions to improve the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions.

PubMed

Parish, William J; Aldridge, Arnie; Allaire, Benjamin; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Poehler, Diana; Guy, Gery P; Thomas, Cheryll C; Trogdon, Justin G

2017-11-01

To assess the burden of excessive alcohol use, researchers estimate alcohol-attributable fractions (AAFs) routinely. However, under-reporting in survey data can bias these estimates. We present an approach that adjusts for under-reporting in the estimation of AAFs, particularly within subgroups. This framework is a refinement of a previous method conducted by Rehm et al. We use a measurement error model to derive the 'true' alcohol distribution from a 'reported' alcohol distribution. The 'true' distribution leverages per-capita sales data to identify the distribution average and then identifies the shape of the distribution with self-reported survey data. Data are from the National Alcohol Survey (NAS), the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) and the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). We compared our approach with previous approaches by estimating the AAF of female breast cancer cases. Compared with Rehm et al.'s approach, our refinement performs similarly under a gamma assumption. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, the two approaches produce estimates from NHSDA that are within a percentage point. However, relaxing the gamma assumption generally produces more conservative evidence. For example, among females aged 18-25 years, estimates from NHSDA based on the best-fitting distribution are only 19.33% of breast cancer cases, which is a much smaller proportion than the gamma-based estimates of approximately 28%. A refinement of Rehm et al.'s approach to adjusting for underreporting in the estimation of alcohol-attributable fractions provides more flexibility. This flexibility can avoid biases associated with failing to account for the underlying differences in alcohol consumption patterns across different study populations. Comparisons of our refinement with Rehm et al.'s approach show that results are similar when a gamma distribution is assumed. However, results are appreciably lower when the best-fitting distribution is chosen versus gamma-based results. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Technical Review of SRS Dose Reconstrruction Methods Used By CDC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpkins, Ali, A

2005-07-20

At the request of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), a subcontractor Advanced Technologies and Laboratories International, Inc.(ATL) issued a draft report estimating offsite dose as a result of Savannah River Site operations for the period 1954-1992 in support of Phase III of the SRS Dose Reconstruction Project. The doses reported by ATL differed than those previously estimated by Savannah River Site SRS dose modelers for a variety of reasons, but primarily because (1) ATL used different source terms, (2) ATL considered trespasser/poacher scenarios and (3) ATL did not consistently use site-specific parameters or correct usage parameters. Themore » receptors with the highest dose from atmospheric and liquid pathways were within about a factor of four greater than dose values previously reported by SRS. A complete set of technical comments have also been included.« less

Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

2017-09-01

The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

77 FR 38035 - Notice for Request To Reinstate Previously Approved Information Collection

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-26

... participating lenders who make loans to income eligible borrowers in rural areas. The purpose of this program is to promote affordable housing for low- and moderate-income borrowers in rural America. Estimate of Burden: Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 49 minutes per...

HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

PubMed Central

Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

2012-01-01

Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Thermodynamic quantities of molecular hydrogen (Popovas+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popovas, A.; Jorgensen, U. G.

2016-07-01

New partition functions for equilibrium, normal, and ortho and para hydrogen are calculated and thermodynamic quantities are reported for the temperature range 1-20000K. Our results are compared to previous estimates in the literature. The calculations are not limited to the ground electronic state, but include all bound and quasi-bound levels of excited electronic states. Dunham coefficients of these states of H2 are also reported. Reported internal partition functions and thermodynamic quantities in the present work are shown to be more accurate than previously available data. (4 data files).

Direct-location versus verbal report methods for measuring auditory distance perception in the far field.

PubMed

Etchemendy, Pablo E; Spiousas, Ignacio; Calcagno, Esteban R; Abregú, Ezequiel; Eguia, Manuel C; Vergara, Ramiro O

2018-06-01

In this study we evaluated whether a method of direct location is an appropriate response method for measuring auditory distance perception of far-field sound sources. We designed an experimental set-up that allows participants to indicate the distance at which they perceive the sound source by moving a visual marker. We termed this method Cross-Modal Direct Location (CMDL) since the response procedure involves the visual modality while the stimulus is presented through the auditory modality. Three experiments were conducted with sound sources located from 1 to 6 m. The first one compared the perceived distances obtained using either the CMDL device or verbal report (VR), which is the response method more frequently used for reporting auditory distance in the far field, and found differences on response compression and bias. In Experiment 2, participants reported visual distance estimates to the visual marker that were found highly accurate. Then, we asked the same group of participants to report VR estimates of auditory distance and found that the spatial visual information, obtained from the previous task, did not influence their reports. Finally, Experiment 3 compared the same responses that Experiment 1 but interleaving the methods, showing a weak, but complex, mutual influence. However, the estimates obtained with each method remained statistically different. Our results show that the auditory distance psychophysical functions obtained with the CMDL method are less susceptible to previously reported underestimation for distances over 2 m.

County-Level Estimates of the Effects of a Universal Preschool Program in California

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karoly, Lynn A.

2005-01-01

Growing interest in universal preschool education has prompted researchers to examine the potential costs and benefits of making high-quality preschool available for all children one or two years before kindergarten entry. The analysis reported in this document builds on a previous RAND study which estimated that a high-quality, one-year,…

DoD Met Most Requirements of the Improper Payments Elimination and Recovery Act in FY 2014, but Improper Payment Estimates Were Unreliable

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-12

Deficiencies That Affect the Reliability of Estimates ________________________________________6 Statistical Precision Could Be Improved... statistical precision of improper payments estimates in seven of the DoD payment programs through the use of stratified sample designs. DoD improper...payments not subject to sampling, which made the results statistically invalid. We made a recommendation to correct this problem in a previous report;4

Estimation of Anaerobic Debromination Rate Constants of PBDE Pathways Using an Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model.

PubMed

Karakas, Filiz; Imamoglu, Ipek

2017-04-01

This study aims to estimate anaerobic debromination rate constants (k m ) of PBDE pathways using previously reported laboratory soil data. k m values of pathways are estimated by modifying a previously developed model as Anaerobic Dehalogenation Model. Debromination activities published in the literature in terms of bromine substitutions as well as specific microorganisms and their combinations are used for identification of pathways. The range of estimated k m values is between 0.0003 and 0.0241 d -1 . The median and maximum of k m values are found to be comparable to the few available biologically confirmed rate constants published in the literature. The estimated k m values can be used as input to numerical fate and transport models for a better and more detailed investigation of the fate of individual PBDEs in contaminated sediments. Various remediation scenarios such as monitored natural attenuation or bioremediation with bioaugmentation can be handled in a more quantitative manner with the help of k m estimated in this study.

National Estimates of Recovery-Remission From Serious Mental Illness.

PubMed

Salzer, Mark S; Brusilovskiy, Eugene; Townley, Greg

2018-05-01

A broad range of estimates of recovery among previously institutionalized persons has been reported, but no current, community-based national estimate of recovery from serious mental illness exists. This study reports recovery rate results, based on a remission definition, and explores related demographic factors. A national, geographically stratified, and random cross-sectional survey conducted from September 2014 to December 2015 resulted in responses from more than 41,000 individuals. Lifetime prevalence of serious mental illness was assessed by asking about receipt of a diagnosis (major depression, bipolar disorder, manic depression, and schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder) and hospitalization and impairment associated with the diagnosis. Recovery was determined by asking about impairments over the past 12 months. Almost 17% reported receiving one of the diagnoses in their lifetime, 6% had a lifetime rate of a serious mental illness, and nearly 4% continued to experience interference associated with serious mental illness. One-third of those with a lifetime serious mental illness reported having been in remission for at least the past 12 months. Recovery rates were low until age 32 and then progressively increased. Lifetime estimates of diagnosed illness and current prevalence of serious mental illness are consistent with previous research. Results indicate that recovery is possible and is associated with age. Further research is needed to understand factors that promote recovery, and sustained evaluation efforts using similar parsimonious approaches may be useful in conducting timely assessments of national and local mental health policies.

Reliability reporting across studies using the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory.

PubMed

Vassar, Matt; Hale, William

2009-01-01

Empirical research on anger and hostility has pervaded the academic literature for more than 50 years. Accurate measurement of anger/hostility and subsequent interpretation of results requires that the instruments yield strong psychometric properties. For consistent measurement, reliability estimates must be calculated with each administration, because changes in sample characteristics may alter the scale's ability to generate reliable scores. Therefore, the present study was designed to address reliability reporting practices for a widely used anger assessment, the Buss Durkee Hostility Inventory (BDHI). Of the 250 published articles reviewed, 11.2% calculated and presented reliability estimates for the data at hand, 6.8% cited estimates from a previous study, and 77.1% made no mention of score reliability. Mean alpha estimates of scores for BDHI subscales generally fell below acceptable standards. Additionally, no detectable pattern was found between reporting practices and publication year or journal prestige. Areas for future research are also discussed.

Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method.

PubMed

Polidori, David; Rowley, Clarence

2014-07-22

The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method.

Development of reliable pavement models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-05-01

The current report proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure as analyzed by : the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). The methodology proposes using a previously fit : response surface, in plac...

Development of 1-Mile Walk Tests to Estimate Aerobic Fitness in Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sung, Hoyong; Collier, David N.; DuBose, Katrina D.; Kemble, C. David; Mahar, Matthew T.

2018-01-01

To examine the reliability and validity of 1-mile walk tests for estimation of aerobic fitness (VO[subscript 2max]) in 10- to 13-year-old children and to cross-validate previously published equations. Participants (n = 61) walked 1-mile on two different days. Self-reported physical activity, demographic variables, and aerobic fitness were used in…

Modest familial risks for multiple sclerosis: a registry-based study of the population of Sweden

PubMed Central

Westerlind, Helga; Ramanujam, Ryan; Uvehag, Daniel; Kuja-Halkola, Ralf; Boman, Marcus; Bottai, Matteo; Lichtenstein, Paul

2014-01-01

Data on familial recurrence rates of complex diseases such as multiple sclerosis give important hints to aetiological factors such as the importance of genes and environment. By linking national registries, we sought to avoid common limitations of clinic-based studies such as low numbers, poor representation of the population and selection bias. Through the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry and a nationwide hospital registry, a total of 28 396 patients with multiple sclerosis were identified. We used the national Multi-Generation Registry to identify first and second degree relatives as well as cousins, and the Swedish Twin Registry to identify twins of patients with multiple sclerosis. Crude and age corrected familial risks were estimated for cases and found to be in the same range as previously published figures. Matched population-based controls were used to calculate relative risks, revealing lower estimates of familial multiple sclerosis risks than previously reported, with a sibling recurrence risk (λs = 7.1; 95% confidence interval: 6.42–7.86). Surprisingly, despite a well-established lower prevalence of multiple sclerosis amongst males, the relative risks were equal among maternal and paternal relations. A previously reported increased risk in maternal relations could thus not be replicated. An observed higher transmission rate from fathers to sons compared with mothers to sons suggested a higher transmission to offspring from the less prevalent sex; therefore, presence of the so-called ‘Carter effect’ could not be excluded. We estimated the heritability of multiple sclerosis using 74 757 twin pairs with known zygosity, of which 315 were affected with multiple sclerosis, and added information from 2.5 million sibling pairs to increase power. The heritability was estimated to be 0.64 (0.36–0.76), whereas the shared environmental component was estimated to be 0.01 (0.00–0.18). In summary, whereas multiple sclerosis is to a great extent an inherited trait, the familial relative risks may be lower than usually reported. PMID:24441172

Forest statistics for the Piedmont of South Carolina, 1993

Treesearch

Mark J. Brown

1993-01-01

This report summarizes results from a 1993 inventory of the forest resources of the Piedmont of South Carolina. Current estimates of forest area, associated characteristics, and timber volumes are highlighted and compared with the 1986 and earlier inventory findings. Average annual rates of growth, removals, and mortality since the previous inventory are reported....

The Solar Neighborhood. XXVII. Discovery of New Proper Motion Stars with μ >= 0farcs18 yr-1 in the Southern Sky with 16.5 < R 59F <= 18.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, Mark R.; Henry, Todd J.; Jao, Wei-Chun; Subasavage, John P.; Hambly, Nigel C.

2011-09-01

Here we present 1584 new southern proper motion systems with μ >= 0farcs18 yr-1 and 16.5 > R 59F >= 18.0. This search complements the six previous SuperCOSMOS-RECONS (SCR) proper motion searches of the southern sky for stars within the same proper motion range, but with R 59F <= 16.5. As in previous papers, we present distance estimates for these systems and find that three systems are estimated to be within 25 pc, including one, SCR 1546-5534, possibly within the RECONS 10 pc horizon at 6.7 pc, making it the second nearest discovery of the searches. We find 97 white dwarf candidates with distance estimates between 10 and 120 pc, as well as 557 cool subdwarf candidates. The subdwarfs found in this paper make up nearly half of the subdwarf systems reported from our SCR searches and are significantly redder than those discovered thus far. The SCR searches have now found 155 red dwarfs estimated to be within 25 pc, including 10 within 10 pc. In addition, 143 white dwarf candidates and 1155 cool subdwarf candidates have been discovered. The 1584 systems reported here augment the sample of 4724 systems previously discovered in our SCR searches and imply that additional systems fainter than R 59F = 18.0 are yet to be discovered.

Lifetime Prevalence of Investigating Child Maltreatment Among US Children.

PubMed

Kim, Hyunil; Wildeman, Christopher; Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Drake, Brett

2017-02-01

To estimate the lifetime prevalence of official investigations for child maltreatment among children in the United States. We used the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System Child Files (2003-2014) and Census data to develop synthetic cohort life tables to estimate the cumulative prevalence of reported childhood maltreatment. We extend previous work, which explored only confirmed rates of maltreatment, and we add new estimations of maltreatment by subtype, age, and ethnicity. We estimate that 37.4% of all children experience a child protective services investigation by age 18 years. Consistent with previous literature, we found a higher rate for African American children (53.0%) and the lowest rate for Asians/Pacific Islanders (10.2%). Child maltreatment investigations are more common than is generally recognized when viewed across the lifespan. Building on other recent work, our data suggest a critical need for increased preventative and treatment resources in the area of child maltreatment.

Methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on data through water year 2011: Chapter F in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Sando, Steven K.; McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to update methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in Montana based on peak-flow data at streamflow-gaging stations through water year 2011. The methods allow estimation of peak-flow frequencies (that is, peak-flow magnitudes, in cubic feet per second, associated with annual exceedance probabilities of 66.7, 50, 42.9, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.2 percent) at ungaged sites. The annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 1.5-, 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively.Regional regression analysis is a primary focus of Chapter F of this Scientific Investigations Report, and regression equations for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites in eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented. The regression equations are based on analysis of peak-flow frequencies and basin characteristics at 537 streamflow-gaging stations in or near Montana and were developed using generalized least squares regression or weighted least squares regression.All of the data used in calculating basin characteristics that were included as explanatory variables in the regression equations were developed for and are available through the USGS StreamStats application (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/) for Montana. StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. The primary purpose of the Montana StreamStats application is to provide estimates of basin characteristics and streamflow characteristics for user-selected ungaged sites on Montana streams. The regional regression equations presented in this report chapter can be conveniently solved using the Montana StreamStats application.Selected results from this study were compared with results of previous studies. For most hydrologic regions, the regression equations reported for this study had lower mean standard errors of prediction (in percent) than the previously reported regression equations for Montana. The equations presented for this study are considered to be an improvement on the previously reported equations primarily because this study (1) included 13 more years of peak-flow data; (2) included 35 more streamflow-gaging stations than previous studies; (3) used a detailed geographic information system (GIS)-based definition of the regulation status of streamflow-gaging stations, which allowed better determination of the unregulated peak-flow records that are appropriate for use in the regional regression analysis; (4) included advancements in GIS and remote-sensing technologies, which allowed more convenient calculation of basin characteristics and investigation of many more candidate basin characteristics; and (5) included advancements in computational and analytical methods, which allowed more thorough and consistent data analysis.This report chapter also presents other methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites. Two methods for estimating peak-flow frequencies at ungaged sites located on the same streams as streamflow-gaging stations are described. Additionally, envelope curves relating maximum recorded annual peak flows to contributing drainage area for each of the eight hydrologic regions in Montana are presented and compared to a national envelope curve. In addition to providing general information on characteristics of large peak flows, the regional envelope curves can be used to assess the reasonableness of peak-flow frequency estimates determined using the regression equations.

Airport Surface Control Systems Development Analysis Expanded

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1990-01-01

A previous MITRE Technical Report, Airport Surface Traffic Control Systems Deployment Analysis, FAA-RD-74-6, presented an analysis of ASTC (Airport Surface Traffic Control) system requirements and developed estimates of the deployment potential of pr...

Is objective and accurate cognitive assessment across the menstrual cycle possible? A feasibility study

PubMed Central

Neill, Jo; Scally, Andy; Tuffnell, Derek; Marshall, Kay

2015-01-01

Objectives: Variation in plasma hormone levels influences the neurobiology of brain regions involved in cognition and emotion processing. Fluctuations in hormone levels across the menstrual cycle could therefore alter cognitive performance and wellbeing; reports have provided conflicting results, however. The aim of this study was to assess whether objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-reported wellbeing during the follicular and luteal phases of the menstrual cycle is feasible and investigate the possible reasons for variation in effects previously reported. Methods: The Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale were used to assess the cognitive performance and wellbeing of 12 women. Data were analysed by self-reported and hormone-estimated phases of the menstrual cycle. Results: Recruitment to the study and assessment of cognition and wellbeing was without issue. Plasma hormone and peptide estimation showed substantial individual variation and suggests inaccuracy in self-reported menstrual phase estimation. Conclusion: Objective assessment of cognitive performance and self-assessed wellbeing across the menstrual cycle is feasible. Grouping data by hormonal profile rather by self-reported phase estimation may influence phase-mediated results. Future studies should use plasma hormone and peptide profiles to estimate cycle phase and group data for analyses. PMID:26770760

Elimination of Emergency Department Medication Errors Due To Estimated Weights.

PubMed

Greenwalt, Mary; Griffen, David; Wilkerson, Jim

2017-01-01

From 7/2014 through 6/2015, 10 emergency department (ED) medication dosing errors were reported through the electronic incident reporting system of an urban academic medical center. Analysis of these medication errors identified inaccurate estimated weight on patients as the root cause. The goal of this project was to reduce weight-based dosing medication errors due to inaccurate estimated weights on patients presenting to the ED. Chart review revealed that 13.8% of estimated weights documented on admitted ED patients varied more than 10% from subsequent actual admission weights recorded. A random sample of 100 charts containing estimated weights revealed 2 previously unreported significant medication dosage errors (.02 significant error rate). Key improvements included removing barriers to weighing ED patients, storytelling to engage staff and change culture, and removal of the estimated weight documentation field from the ED electronic health record (EHR) forms. With these improvements estimated weights on ED patients, and the resulting medication errors, were eliminated.

POLYBROMINATED DIPHENYL ETHER (PBDE) LEVELS IN AN EXPANDED MARKET BASKET SURVEY OF UNITED STATES (U.S) FOOD AND ESTIMATED PBDE DIETARY INTAKE BY AGE AND SEX

EPA Science Inventory

This study enhances a previously reported U.S. market basket survey of food for polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) levels with a larger sample size of 62 individual analyses for 13 congeners. In addition, it estimates levels of PBDE intake from food by gender and age for the U....

Evaluation of Methodology for Estimating the Cost of Air Force On-The-Job Training. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samers, Bernard N.; And Others

Described is the final phase of a study directed at the development of an on-the-job training (OJT) costing methodology. Utilizing a modification of survey techniques tested and evaluated during the previous phase, estimates were obtained for the cost of OJT for airman training from the l-level (unskilled to the 3-level (semiskilled) in five…

Maximizing mitigation benefits: research to support a mitigation cost framework-final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

Tracking environmental costs in the project development process has been a challenging task for state : departments of transportation (DOTs). Previous research identified the need to accurately track and : subsequently estimate project costs resultin...

Association of type D personality with unhealthy lifestyle, and estimated risk of coronary events in the general Icelandic population.

PubMed

Svansdottir, Erla; Denollet, Johan; Thorsson, Bolli; Gudnason, Thorarinn; Halldorsdottir, Sigrun; Gudnason, Vilmundur; van den Broek, Krista C; Karlsson, Hrobjartur D

2013-04-01

Type D personality is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality risk in cardiovascular disease patients, but the mechanisms explaining this risk are unclear. We examined whether Type D was associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, estimated risk of developing CAD, and previous cardiac events. Cross-sectional study in the general Icelandic population. A random sample of 4753 individuals (mean age 49.1 ± 12.0 years; 49% men) from the REFINE-Reykjavik study completed assessments for Type D personality and conventional CAD risk factors. Ten-year risk of developing CAD was estimated with the Icelandic risk calculator. Type D personality (22% of sample) was associated with a higher prevalence of hypertension (35 vs. 31%, p = 0.009), but less use of hypertension medication (58 vs. 65%, p = 0.013) in hypertensives, more diabetes (6 vs. 4%, p = 0.023), wider waist circumference (p = 0.007), and elevated body mass index (p = 0.025) and blood lipids (p < 0.05). Type D individuals reported less physical exercise (p = 0.000) and more current (26 vs. 21%, p = 0.003) and former smoking (48 vs. 44%, p = 0.036). Estimates of 10-year risk of CAD were higher in Type D individuals (12.4%, 95% CI 1.9 to 23.8%), and Type Ds reported more previous cardiac events than non-Type Ds (5 vs. 3%, p < 0.01; OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.21 to 2.42). In the general Icelandic population, Type D personality was associated with differences in lifestyle-related CAD risk factors, a higher estimated risk of developing CAD, and higher incidence of previous cardiac events. Unhealthy lifestyles may partly explain the adverse cardiovascular effect of Type D personality.

Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

PubMed

Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

2015-04-01

Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures.

Accelerometer-measured versus self-reported physical activity in college students: implications for research and practice.

PubMed

Downs, Andrew; Van Hoomissen, Jacqueline; Lafrenz, Andrew; Julka, Deana L

2014-01-01

To determine the level of moderate-vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) assessed via self-report and accelerometer in the college population, and to examine intrapersonal and contextual variables associated with physical activity (PA). Participants were 77 college students at a university in the northwest sampled between January 2011 and December 2011. Participants completed a validated self-report measure of PA and measures of athletic identity and benefits and barriers to exercise. Participants' PA levels were assessed for 2 weeks via accelerometry. Participants' estimations of their time spent engaged in MVPA were significantly higher when measured via self-report versus accelerometry. Stronger athletic identity, perceived social benefits and barriers, and time-effort barriers were related to PA levels. Estimation of college students' level of PA may require interpretation of data from different measurement methods, as self-report and accelerometry generate different estimations of PA in college students who may be even less active than previously believed.

A Review of the Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sun, Xiang; Allison, Carrie

2010-01-01

Electronic databases and bibliographies were searched for English language articles on the prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorder in Asia over time to estimate prevalence. The overall reported prevalence of ASD in recent studies was higher than the previously reported in Asia. The average prevalence of ASD before 1980 was around 1.9/10,000 while…

Generic Sensor Modeling Using Pulse Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helder, Dennis L.; Choi, Taeyoung

2005-01-01

Recent development of high spatial resolution satellites such as IKONOS, Quickbird and Orbview enable observation of the Earth's surface with sub-meter resolution. Compared to the 30 meter resolution of Landsat 5 TM, the amount of information in the output image was dramatically increased. In this era of high spatial resolution, the estimation of spatial quality of images is gaining attention. Historically, the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) concept has been used to estimate an imaging system's spatial quality. Sometimes classified by target shapes, various methods were developed in laboratory environment utilizing sinusoidal inputs, periodic bar patterns and narrow slits. On-orbit sensor MTF estimation was performed on 30-meter GSD Landsat4 Thematic Mapper (TM) data from the bridge pulse target as a pulse input . Because of a high resolution sensor s small Ground Sampling Distance (GSD), reasonably sized man-made edge, pulse, and impulse targets can be deployed on a uniform grassy area with accurate control of ground targets using tarps and convex mirrors. All the previous work cited calculated MTF without testing the MTF estimator's performance. In previous report, a numerical generic sensor model had been developed to simulate and improve the performance of on-orbit MTF estimating techniques. Results from the previous sensor modeling report that have been incorporated into standard MTF estimation work include Fermi edge detection and the newly developed 4th order modified Savitzky-Golay (MSG) interpolation technique. Noise sensitivity had been studied by performing simulations on known noise sources and a sensor model. Extensive investigation was done to characterize multi-resolution ground noise. Finally, angle simulation was tested by using synthetic pulse targets with angles from 2 to 15 degrees, several brightness levels, and different noise levels from both ground targets and imaging system. As a continuing research activity using the developed sensor model, this report was dedicated to MTF estimation via pulse input method characterization using the Fermi edge detection and 4th order MSG interpolation method. The relationship between pulse width and MTF value at Nyquist was studied including error detection and correction schemes. Pulse target angle sensitivity was studied by using synthetic targets angled from 2 to 12 degrees. In this report, from the ground and system noise simulation, a minimum SNR value was suggested for a stable MTF value at Nyquist for the pulse method. Target width error detection and adjustment technique based on a smooth transition of MTF profile is presented, which is specifically applicable only to the pulse method with 3 pixel wide targets.

Optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume in humans using the indocyanine green dilution method

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The indocyanine green dilution method is one of the methods available to estimate plasma volume, although some researchers have questioned the accuracy of this method. Methods We developed a new, physiologically based mathematical model of indocyanine green kinetics that more accurately represents indocyanine green kinetics during the first few minutes postinjection than what is assumed when using the traditional mono-exponential back-extrapolation method. The mathematical model is used to develop an optimal back-extrapolation method for estimating plasma volume based on simulated indocyanine green kinetics obtained from the physiological model. Results Results from a clinical study using the indocyanine green dilution method in 36 subjects with type 2 diabetes indicate that the estimated plasma volumes are considerably lower when using the traditional back-extrapolation method than when using the proposed back-extrapolation method (mean (standard deviation) plasma volume = 26.8 (5.4) mL/kg for the traditional method vs 35.1 (7.0) mL/kg for the proposed method). The results obtained using the proposed method are more consistent with previously reported plasma volume values. Conclusions Based on the more physiological representation of indocyanine green kinetics and greater consistency with previously reported plasma volume values, the new back-extrapolation method is proposed for use when estimating plasma volume using the indocyanine green dilution method. PMID:25052018

Brief Report: Prevalence of Co-Occurring Epilepsy and Autism Spectrum Disorder--The U.S. National Survey of Children's Health 2011-2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomas, Shiny; Hovinga, Mary E.; Rai, Dheeraj; Lee, Brian K.

2017-01-01

Epilepsy is reported to co-occur in individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Previous studies across the world have found prevalence estimates ranging from 4 to 38%. We examined parent-reported prevalence of co-occurring epilepsy and ASD in the most recent U.S. National Survey of Children's Health, 2011-2012. All analyses accounted for…

The extent of forest in dryland biomes.

PubMed

Bastin, Jean-François; Berrahmouni, Nora; Grainger, Alan; Maniatis, Danae; Mollicone, Danilo; Moore, Rebecca; Patriarca, Chiara; Picard, Nicolas; Sparrow, Ben; Abraham, Elena Maria; Aloui, Kamel; Atesoglu, Ayhan; Attore, Fabio; Bassüllü, Çağlar; Bey, Adia; Garzuglia, Monica; García-Montero, Luis G; Groot, Nikée; Guerin, Greg; Laestadius, Lars; Lowe, Andrew J; Mamane, Bako; Marchi, Giulio; Patterson, Paul; Rezende, Marcelo; Ricci, Stefano; Salcedo, Ignacio; Diaz, Alfonso Sanchez-Paus; Stolle, Fred; Surappaeva, Venera; Castro, Rene

2017-05-12

Dryland biomes cover two-fifths of Earth's land surface, but their forest area is poorly known. Here, we report an estimate of global forest extent in dryland biomes, based on analyzing more than 210,000 0.5-hectare sample plots through a photo-interpretation approach using large databases of satellite imagery at (i) very high spatial resolution and (ii) very high temporal resolution, which are available through the Google Earth platform. We show that in 2015, 1327 million hectares of drylands had more than 10% tree-cover, and 1079 million hectares comprised forest. Our estimate is 40 to 47% higher than previous estimates, corresponding to 467 million hectares of forest that have never been reported before. This increases current estimates of global forest cover by at least 9%. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Galactic cosmic radiation exposure of pregnant aircrew members II

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-10-01

This report is an updated version of a previously published Technical Note in the journal Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine. The main change is that improved computer programs were used to estimate galactic cosmic radiation. The calculation...

Radiolysis Model Sensitivity Analysis for a Used Fuel Storage Canister

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wittman, Richard S.

2013-09-20

This report fulfills the M3 milestone (M3FT-13PN0810027) to report on a radiolysis computer model analysis that estimates the generation of radiolytic products for a storage canister. The analysis considers radiolysis outside storage canister walls and within the canister fill gas over a possible 300-year lifetime. Previous work relied on estimates based directly on a water radiolysis G-value. This work also includes that effect with the addition of coupled kinetics for 111 reactions for 40 gas species to account for radiolytic-induced chemistry, which includes water recombination and reactions with air.

Preliminary estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use for counties of the conterminous United States, 2010-11

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Nancy T.; Stone, Wesley W.

2013-01-01

This report provides preliminary estimates of annual agricultural use of 374 pesticide compounds in counties of the conterminous United States in 2010 and 2011, compiled by means of methods described in Thelin and Stone (2013). U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) county-level data for harvested-crop acreage were used in conjunction with proprietary Crop Reporting District (CRD)-level pesticide-use data to estimate county-level pesticide use. Estimated pesticide use (EPest) values were calculated with both the EPest-high and EPest-low methods. The distinction between the EPest-high method and the EPest-low method is that there are more counties with estimated pesticide use for EPest-high compared to EPest-low, owing to differing assumptions about missing survey data (Thelin and Stone, 2013). Preliminary estimates in this report will be revised upon availability of updated crop acreages in the 2012 Agricultural Census, to be published by the USDA in 2014. In addition, estimates for 2008 and 2009 previously published by Stone (2013) will be updated subsequent to the 2012 Agricultural Census release. Estimates of annual agricultural pesticide use are provided as downloadable, tab-delimited files, which are organized by compound, year, state Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code, county FIPS code, and kg (amount in kilograms).

United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shehabi, Arman; Smith, Sarah; Sartor, Dale

This report estimates historical data center electricity consumption back to 2000, relying on previous studies and historical shipment data, and forecasts consumption out to 2020 based on new trends and the most recent data available. Figure ES-1 provides an estimate of total U.S. data center electricity use (servers, storage, network equipment, and infrastructure) from 2000-2020. In 2014, data centers in the U.S. consumed an estimated 70 billion kWh, representing about 1.8% of total U.S. electricity consumption. Current study results show data center electricity consumption increased by about 4% from 2010-2014, a large shift from the 24% percent increase estimated frommore » 2005-2010 and the nearly 90% increase estimated from 2000-2005. Energy use is expected to continue slightly increasing in the near future, increasing 4% from 2014-2020, the same rate as the past five years. Based on current trend estimates, U.S. data centers are projected to consume approximately 73 billion kWh in 2020.« less

Revisiting the Estimation of Dinosaur Growth Rates

PubMed Central

Myhrvold, Nathan P.

2013-01-01

Previous growth-rate studies covering 14 dinosaur taxa, as represented by 31 data sets, are critically examined and reanalyzed by using improved statistical techniques. The examination reveals that some previously reported results cannot be replicated by using the methods originally reported; results from new methods are in many cases different, in both the quantitative rates and the qualitative nature of the growth, from results in the prior literature. Asymptotic growth curves, which have been hypothesized to be ubiquitous, are shown to provide best fits for only four of the 14 taxa. Possible reasons for non-asymptotic growth patterns are discussed; they include systematic errors in the age-estimation process and, more likely, a bias toward younger ages among the specimens analyzed. Analysis of the data sets finds that only three taxa include specimens that could be considered skeletally mature (i.e., having attained 90% of maximum body size predicted by asymptotic curve fits), and eleven taxa are quite immature, with the largest specimen having attained less than 62% of predicted asymptotic size. The three taxa that include skeletally mature specimens are included in the four taxa that are best fit by asymptotic curves. The totality of results presented here suggests that previous estimates of both maximum dinosaur growth rates and maximum dinosaur sizes have little statistical support. Suggestions for future research are presented. PMID:24358133

A model-based correction for outcome reporting bias in meta-analysis.

PubMed

Copas, John; Dwan, Kerry; Kirkham, Jamie; Williamson, Paula

2014-04-01

It is often suspected (or known) that outcomes published in medical trials are selectively reported. A systematic review for a particular outcome of interest can only include studies where that outcome was reported and so may omit, for example, a study that has considered several outcome measures but only reports those giving significant results. Using the methodology of the Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) in Trials study of (Kirkham and others, 2010. The impact of outcome reporting bias in randomised controlled trials on a cohort of systematic reviews. British Medical Journal 340, c365), we suggest a likelihood-based model for estimating the effect of ORB on confidence intervals and p-values in meta-analysis. Correcting for bias has the effect of moving estimated treatment effects toward the null and hence more cautious assessments of significance. The bias can be very substantial, sometimes sufficient to completely overturn previous claims of significance. We re-analyze two contrasting examples, and derive a simple fixed effects approximation that can be used to give an initial estimate of the effect of ORB in practice.

Modeling of GE Appliances: Cost Benefit Study of Smart Appliances in Wholesale Energy, Frequency Regulation, and Spinning Reserve Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fuller, Jason C.; Parker, Graham B.

This report is the second in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE’s DR-enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report described the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The third report will explore the technical capability of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation.more » In this report, a series of analytical methods were presented to estimate the potential cost benefit of smart appliances while utilizing demand response. Previous work estimated the potential technical benefit (i.e., peak reduction) of smart appliances, while this report focuses on the monetary value of that participation. The effects on wholesale energy cost and possible additional revenue available by participating in frequency regulation and spinning reserve markets were explored.« less

Alternative Schools and Programs for Public School Students at Risk of Educational Failure: 2007-08. First Look. NCES 2010-026

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carver, Priscilla Rouse; Lewis, Laurie; Tice, Peter

2010-01-01

This report provides national estimates on the availability of alternative schools and programs for students at risk of educational failure in public school districts during the 2007-08 school year. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) previously reported results from a similar survey of alternative schools and programs conducted…

24 CFR 15.110 - What fees will HUD charge?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... estimated fee is more than $250.00 or you have a history of failing to pay FOIA fees to HUD in a timely... consumer credit reporting agencies of your delinquency. (3) If you owe fees for previous FOIA responses...

Effectiveness of Ebola treatment units and community care centers - Liberia, September 23-October 31, 2014.

PubMed

Washington, Michael L; Meltzer, Martin L

2015-01-30

Previous reports have shown that an Ebola outbreak can be slowed, and eventually stopped, by placing Ebola patients into settings where there is reduced risk for onward Ebola transmission, such as Ebola treatment units (ETUs) and community care centers (CCCs) or equivalent community settings that encourage changes in human behaviors to reduce transmission risk, such as making burials safe and reducing contact with Ebola patients. Using cumulative case count data from Liberia up to August 28, 2014, the EbolaResponse model previously estimated that without any additional interventions or further changes in human behavior, there would have been approximately 23,000 reported Ebola cases by October 31, 2014. In actuality, there were 6,525 reported cases by that date. To estimate the effectiveness of ETUs and CCCs or equivalent community settings in preventing greater Ebola transmission, CDC applied the EbolaResponse model to the period September 23-October 31, 2014, in Liberia. The results showed that admitting Ebola patients to ETUs alone prevented an estimated 2,244 Ebola cases. Having patients receive care in CCCs or equivalent community settings with a reduced risk for Ebola transmission prevented an estimated 4,487 cases. Having patients receive care in either ETUs or CCCs or in equivalent community settings, prevented an estimated 9,100 cases, apparently as the result of a synergistic effect in which the impact of the combined interventions was greater than the sum of the two interventions. Caring for patients in ETUs, CCCs, or in equivalent community settings with reduced risk for transmission can be important components of a successful public health response to an Ebola epidemic.

Non-destructive evaluation of composite materials using ultrasound

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, J. G.

1984-01-01

Investigation of the nondestructive evaluation of advanced composite-laminates is summarized. Indices derived from the measurement of fundamental acoustic parameters are used in order to quantitatively estimate the local material properties of the laminate. The following sections describe ongoing studies of phase insensitive attenuation measurements, and discuss several phenomena which influences the previously reported technique of polar backscatter. A simple and effective programmable gate circuit designed for use in estimating attenuation from backscatter is described.

Thunderstorm vertical velocities and mass flux estimated from satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, R. F.; Fenn, D. D.

1979-01-01

Infrared geosynchronous satellite data with an interval of five minutes between images are used to estimate thunderstorm top ascent rates on two case study days. A mean vertical velocity of 3.5/ms for 19 clouds is calculated at a height of 8.7 km. This upward motion is representative of an area of approximately 10km on a side. Thunderstorm mass flux of approximately 2x10 to the 11th power/gs is calculated, which compares favorably with previous estimates. There is a significant difference in the mean calculated vertical velocity between elements associated with severe weather reports (w bar=4.6/ms) and those with no such reports (2.5/ms). Calculations were made using a velocity profile for an axially symmetric jet to estimate the peak updraft velocity. For the largest observed w value of 7.8/ms the calculation indicates a peak updraft of approximately 50/ms.

Teacher Expectations as Predictors of Academic Success.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keneal, Pamela; And Others

1991-01-01

Follows up previous study of social and psychological effects of orthodontic treatment upon children. Reports that teachers' ratings of student attractiveness correlated significantly with judgments of children's sociability, popularity, academic achievement, and leadership. Concludes that teachers' estimations of academic capability was a good…

How "lucky" we are that the Fukushima disaster occurred in early spring: predictions on the contamination levels from various fission products released from the accident and updates on the risk assessment for solid and thyroid cancers.

PubMed

Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

2014-12-01

The present paper studies how a random event (earthquake) and the subsequent disaster in Japan affect transport and deposition of fallout and the resulting health consequences. Therefore, except for the original accident in March 2011, three additional scenarios are assessed assuming that the same releases took place in winter 2010, summer 2011 and autumn 2011 in order to cover a full range of annual seasonality. This is also the first study where a large number of fission products released from the accident are used to assess health risks with the maximum possible efficiency. Xenon-133 and (137)Cs are directly estimated within the model, whereas 15 other radionuclides are calculated indirectly using reported isotopic ratios. As much as 85% of the released (137)Cs would be deposited in continental regions worldwide if the accident occurred in winter 2010, 22% in spring 2011 (when it actually happened), 55% in summer 2011 and 48% if it occurred during autumn 2011. Solid cancer incidents and mortalities from Fukushima are estimated to be between 160 and 880 and from 110 to 640 close to previous estimations. By adding thyroid cancers, the total number rises from 230 to 850 for incidents and from 120 to 650 for mortalities. Fatalities due to worker exposure and mandatory evacuation have been reported to be around 610 increasing total estimated mortalities to 730-1260. These estimates are 2.8 times higher than previously reported ones for radiocaesium and (131)I and 16% higher than those reported based on radiocaesium only. Total expected fatalities from Fukushima are 32% lower than in the winter scenario, 5% that in the summer scenario and 30% lower than in the autumn scenario. Nevertheless, cancer fatalities are expected to be less than 5% of those from the tsunami (~20,000). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Impact of Granularity of Space-Based Urban CO2 Emissions in Urban Atmospheric Inversions: A Case Study for Indianapolis, IN

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oda, Tomohiro; Lauvaux, Thomas; Lu, Dengsheng; Rao, Preeti; Miles, Natasha L.; Richardson, Scott J.; Gurney, Kevin R.

2017-01-01

Quantifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from cities is a key challenge towards effective emissions management. An inversion analysis from the INdianapolis FLUX experiment (INFLUX) project, as the first of its kind, has achieved a top-down emission estimate for a single city using CO2 data collected by the dense tower network deployed across the city. However, city-level emission data, used as a priori emissions, are also a key component in the atmospheric inversion framework. Currently, fine-grained emission inventories (EIs) able to resolve GHG city emissions at high spatial resolution, are only available for few major cities across the globe. Following the INFLUX inversion case with a global 1x1 km ODIAC fossil fuel CO2 emission dataset, we further improved the ODIAC emission field and examined its utility as a prior for the city scale inversion. We disaggregated the 1x1 km ODIAC non-point source emissions using geospatial datasets such as the global road network data and satellite-data driven surface imperviousness data to a 3030 m resolution. We assessed the impact of the improved emission field on the inversion result, relative to priors in previous studies (Hestia and ODIAC). The posterior total emission estimate (5.1 MtC/yr) remains statistically similar to the previous estimate with ODIAC (5.3 MtC/yr). However, the distribution of the flux corrections was very close to those of Hestia inversion and the model-observation mismatches were significantly reduced both in forward and inverse runs, even without hourly temporal changes in emissions. EIs reported by cities often do not have estimates of spatial extents. Thus, emission disaggregation is a required step when verifying those reported emissions using atmospheric models. Our approach offers gridded emission estimates for global cities that could serves as a prior for inversion, even without locally reported EIs in a systematic way to support city-level Measuring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) practice implementation.

Seasonally Transported Aerosol Layers Over Southeast Atlantic are Closer to Underlying Clouds than Previously Reported

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rajapakshe, Chamara; Zhang, Zhibo; Yorks, John E.; Yu, Hongbin; Tan, Qian; Meyer, Kerry; Platnick, Steven; Winker, David M.

2017-01-01

From June to October, low-level clouds in the southeast (SE) Atlantic often underlie seasonal aerosol layers transported from African continent. Previously, the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) 532 nm lidar observations have been used to estimate the relative vertical location of the above-cloud aerosols (ACA) to the underlying clouds. Here we show new observations from NASA's Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar. Two seasons of CATS 1064 nm observations reveal that the bottom of the ACA layer is much lower than previously estimated based on CALIPSO 532 nm observations. For about 60% of CATS nighttime ACA scenes, the aerosol layer base is within 360 m distance to the top of the underlying cloud. Our results are important for future studies of the microphysical indirect and semidirect effects of ACA in the SE Atlantic region.

Suicide and Suicidal Attempts in the United States: Costs and Policy Implications.

PubMed

Shepard, Donald S; Gurewich, Deborah; Lwin, Aung K; Reed, Gerald A; Silverman, Morton M

2016-06-01

The national cost of suicides and suicide attempts in the United States in 2013 was $58.4 billion based on reported numbers alone. Lost productivity (termed indirect costs) represents most (97.1%) of this cost. Adjustment for under-reporting increased the total cost to $93.5 billion or $298 per capita, 2.1-2.8 times that of previous studies. Previous research suggests that improved continuity of care would likely reduce the number of subsequent suicidal attempts following a previous nonfatal attempt. We estimate a highly favorable benefit-cost ratio of 6 to 1 for investments in additional medical, counseling, and linkage services for such patients. © 2015 The Authors. Suicide and LifeThreatening Behavior published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Suicidology.

The use of an electronic medical record system for mandatory reporting of drug hypersensitivity reactions has been shown to improve the management of patients in the university hospital in Korea.

PubMed

Park, Chan Sun; Kim, Tae-Bum; Kim, Seoung Lan; Kim, Jae Youn; Yang, Kyung Ai; Bae, Yun-Jeong; Cho, You Sook; Moon, Hee-Bom

2008-09-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a computerized surveillance system for adverse drug events (ADEs) reinforced with mandatory reporting of all past drug hypersensitivity reactions (DHSRs) and supervision of the processes by allergy specialists in a university hospital. All information on both prior and newly developed DHSRs was collected via the surveillance system described above and compared with the data from previous system based on voluntary reporting of DHSRs by attending physicians. The report rate of past DHSRs was greatly increased and the estimated incidence of new events decreased under the new system. The occurrence rate of new DHSRs during hospitalization, which were caused by the repeated administration of the agents previously suspected as culprit drugs enormously, decreased from 15% of previous system to 1% of new system. The mandatory reporting system for past DHSRs and the supervision by allergy specialists appear to be important in improving the management of patients with drug hypersensitivity and in preventing the occurrence of DHSRs in a general hospital.

The effect of previous traumatic injury on homicide risk.

PubMed

Griffin, Russell L; Davis, Gregory G; Levitan, Emily B; MacLennan, Paul A; Redden, David T; McGwin, Gerald

2014-07-01

Research has reported that a strong risk factor for traumatic injury is having a previous injury (i.e., recidivism). To date, the only study examining the relationship between recidivism and homicide reported strong associations, but was limited by possible selection bias. The current matched case-control study utilized coroner's data from 2004 to 2008. Subjects were linked to trauma registry data to determine whether the person had a previous traumatic injury. Conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the association between homicide and recidivism. Homicide risk was increased for those having a previous traumatic injury (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.09-2.99) or a previous intentional injury (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.24-5.17). These results suggest an association between homicide and injury recidivism, and that trauma centers may be an effective setting for screening individuals for secondary prevention efforts of homicide through violence prevention programs. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Grass competition may benefit high density peach orchards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Previous research demonstrated that grass competition dwarfed and reduced the yield of individual peach trees [Prunus persica (L.) Batsch] grown in narrow vegetation free areas (VFA). In this report, the area-based yield of two peach cultivars, 'Redskin' and 'Jersey Dawn' on 'Lovell', was estimated...

Railroads and the Environment : Estimation of Fuel Consumption in Rail Transportation : Volume 3. Comparison of Computer Simulations with Field Measurements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-09-01

This report documents comparisons between extensive rail freight service measurements (previously presented in Volume II) and simulations of the same operations using a sophisticated train performance calculator computer program. The comparisons cove...

Earth-atmosphere system and surface reflectivities in arid regions from Landsat MSS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Fraser, R. S.

1976-01-01

Previously developed programs for computing atmospheric transmission and scattering of the solar radiation are used to compute the ratios of the earth-atmosphere system (space) directional reflectivities in the nadir direction to the surface Lambertian reflectivity, for the four bands of the Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS). These ratios are presented as graphs for two water vapor levels, as a function of the surface reflectivity, for various sun elevation angles. Space directional reflectivities in the vertical direction are reported for selected arid regions in Asia, Africa, and Central America from the spectral radiance levels measured by the Landsat MSS. From these space reflectivities, surface reflectivities are computed applying the pertinent graphs. These surface reflectivities are used to estimate the surface albedo for the entire solar spectrum. The estimated albedos are in the range 0.34-0.52, higher than the values reported by most previous researchers from space measurements, but are consistent with laboratory and in situ measurements.

Wildlife Loss Estimates and Summary of Previous Mitigation Related to Hydroelectric Projects in Montana, Volume Three, Hungry Horse Project.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casey, Daniel

1984-10-01

This assessment addresses the impacts to the wildlife populations and wildlife habitats due to the Hungry Horse Dam project on the South Fork of the Flathead River and previous mitigation of theses losses. In order to develop and focus mitigation efforts, it was first necessary to estimate wildlife and wildlife hatitat losses attributable to the construction and operation of the project. The purpose of this report was to document the best available information concerning the degree of impacts to target wildlife species. Indirect benefits to wildlife species not listed will be identified during the development of alternative mitigation measures. Wildlifemore » species incurring positive impacts attributable to the project were identified.« less

Estimating the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for selected recurrence intervals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Martin, Gary R.

2003-01-01

This report gives estimates of, and presents techniques for estimating, the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. A flowchart in this report guides the user to the appropriate estimates and (or) estimating techniques for a site on a specific stream. Estimates of peak flows are given for 222 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kentucky. In the development of the peak-flow estimates at gaging stations, a new generalized skew coefficient was calculated for the State. This single statewide value of 0.011 (with a standard error of prediction of 0.520) is more appropriate for Kentucky than the national skew isoline map in Bulletin 17B of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Regression equations are presented for estimating the peak flows on ungaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. The equations were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression procedures at 187 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Kentucky and 51 stations in surrounding States. Kentucky was divided into seven flood regions. Total drainage area is used in the final regression equations as the sole explanatory variable, except in Regions 1 and 4 where main-channel slope also was used. The smallest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 3 (from -13.1 to +15.0 percent) and the largest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 5 (from -37.6 to +60.3 percent). One section of this report describes techniques for estimating peak flows for ungaged sites on gaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. Another section references two previous U.S. Geological Survey reports for peak-flow estimates on ungaged, unregulated, urban streams. Estimating peak flows at ungaged sites on regulated streams is beyond the scope of this report, because peak flows on regulated streams are dependent upon variable human activities.

Relationship between paediatric CT scans and subsequent risk of leukaemia and brain tumours: assessment of the impact of underlying conditions.

PubMed

Berrington de Gonzalez, Amy; Salotti, Jane A; McHugh, Kieran; Little, Mark P; Harbron, Richard W; Lee, Choonsik; Ntowe, Estelle; Braganza, Melissa Z; Parker, Louise; Rajaraman, Preetha; Stiller, Charles; Stewart, Douglas R; Craft, Alan W; Pearce, Mark S

2016-02-16

We previously reported evidence of a dose-response relationship between ionising-radiation exposure from paediatric computed tomography (CT) scans and the risk of leukaemia and brain tumours in a large UK cohort. Underlying unreported conditions could have introduced bias into these findings. We collected and reviewed additional clinical information from radiology information systems (RIS) databases, underlying cause of death and pathology reports. We conducted sensitivity analyses excluding participants with cancer-predisposing conditions or previous unreported cancers and compared the dose-response analyses with our original results. We obtained information from the RIS and death certificates for about 40% of the cohort (n∼180 000) and found cancer-predisposing conditions in 4 out of 74 leukaemia/myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) cases and 13 out of 135 brain tumour cases. As these conditions were unrelated to CT exposure, exclusion of these participants did not alter the dose-response relationships. We found evidence of previous unreported cancers in 2 leukaemia/MDS cases, 7 brain tumour cases and 232 in non-cases. These previous cancers were related to increased number of CTs. Exclusion of these cancers reduced the excess relative risk per mGy by 15% from 0.036 to 0.033 for leukaemia/MDS (P-trend=0.02) and by 30% from 0.023 to 0.016 (P-trend<0.0001) for brain tumours. When we included pathology reports we had additional clinical information for 90% of the cases. Additional exclusions from these reports further reduced the risk estimates, but this sensitivity analysis may have underestimated risks as reports were only available for cases. Although there was evidence of some bias in our original risk estimates, re-analysis of the cohort with additional clinical data still showed an increased cancer risk after low-dose radiation exposure from CT scans in young patients.

Estimates and Determinants of Sexual Violence Against Women in the Democratic Republic of Congo

PubMed Central

Palermo, Tia; Bredenkamp, Caryn

2011-01-01

Objectives. We sought to provide data-based estimates of sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and describe risk factors for such violence. Methods. We used nationally representative household survey data from 3436 women selected to answer the domestic violence module who took part in the 2007 DRC Demographic and Health Survey along with population estimates to estimate levels of sexual violence. We used multivariate logistic regression to analyze correlates of sexual violence. Results. Approximately 1.69 to 1.80 million women reported having been raped in their lifetime (with 407 397–433 785 women reporting having been raped in the preceding 12 months), and approximately 3.07 to 3.37 million women reported experiencing intimate partner sexual violence. Reports of sexual violence were largely independent of individual-level background factors. However, compared with women in Kinshasa, women in Nord-Kivu were significantly more likely to report all types of sexual violence. Conclusions. Not only is sexual violence more generalized than previously thought, but our findings suggest that future policies and programs should focus on abuse within families and eliminate the acceptance of and impunity surrounding sexual violence nationwide while also maintaining and enhancing efforts to stop militias from perpetrating rape. PMID:21566049

Comparison of two U.S. power-plant carbon dioxide emissions data sets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackerman, K.V.; Sundquist, E.T.

2008-01-01

Estimates of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are needed to address a variety of climate-change mitigation concerns over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. We compared two data sets that report power-plant CO 2 emissions in the conterminous U.S. for 2004, the most recent year reported in both data sets. The data sets were obtained from the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the Environmental Protection Agency's eGRID database. Conterminous U.S. total emissions computed from the data sets differed by 3.5% for total plant emissions (electricity plus useful thermal output) and 2.3% for electricity generation only. These differences are well within previous estimates of uncertainty in annual U.S. fossil-fuel emissions. However, the corresponding average absolute differences between estimates of emissions from individual power plants were much larger, 16.9% and 25.3%, respectively. By statistical analysis, we identified several potential sources of differences between EIA and eGRID estimates for individual plants. Estimates that are based partly or entirely on monitoring of stack gases (reported by eGRID only) differed significantly from estimates based on fuel consumption (as reported by EIA). Differences in accounting methods appear to explain differences in estimates for emissions from electricity generation from combined heat and power plants, and for total and electricity generation emissions from plants that burn nonconventional fuels (e.g., biomass). Our analysis suggests the need for care in utilizing emissions data from individual power plants, and the need for transparency in documenting the accounting and monitoring methods used to estimate emissions.

Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840)

PubMed Central

Friedlander, Alan M.; DeMartini, Edward E.; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

2015-01-01

The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2–3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = − 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability. PMID:26401463

Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840).

PubMed

Usseglio, Paolo; Friedlander, Alan M; DeMartini, Edward E; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

2015-01-01

The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2-3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L ∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = - 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability.

Experimental Bayesian Quantum Phase Estimation on a Silicon Photonic Chip.

PubMed

Paesani, S; Gentile, A A; Santagati, R; Wang, J; Wiebe, N; Tew, D P; O'Brien, J L; Thompson, M G

2017-03-10

Quantum phase estimation is a fundamental subroutine in many quantum algorithms, including Shor's factorization algorithm and quantum simulation. However, so far results have cast doubt on its practicability for near-term, nonfault tolerant, quantum devices. Here we report experimental results demonstrating that this intuition need not be true. We implement a recently proposed adaptive Bayesian approach to quantum phase estimation and use it to simulate molecular energies on a silicon quantum photonic device. The approach is verified to be well suited for prethreshold quantum processors by investigating its superior robustness to noise and decoherence compared to the iterative phase estimation algorithm. This shows a promising route to unlock the power of quantum phase estimation much sooner than previously believed.

County-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus from animal manure for the conterminous United States, 2007 and 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gronberg, JoAnn M.; Arnold, Terri L.

2017-03-24

County-level estimates of nitrogen and phosphorus inputs from animal manure for the conterminous United States were calculated from animal population inventories in the 2007 and 2012 Census of Agriculture, using previously published methods. These estimates of non-point nitrogen and phosphorus inputs from animal manure were compiled in support of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Assessment Project of the National Water Quality Program and are needed to support national-scale investigations of stream and groundwater water quality. The estimates published in this report are comparable with older estimates which can be compared to show changes in nitrogen and phosphorus inputs from manure over time.

[Dual process in large number estimation under uncertainty].

PubMed

Matsumuro, Miki; Miwa, Kazuhisa; Terai, Hitoshi; Yamada, Kento

2016-08-01

According to dual process theory, there are two systems in the mind: an intuitive and automatic System 1 and a logical and effortful System 2. While many previous studies about number estimation have focused on simple heuristics and automatic processes, the deliberative System 2 process has not been sufficiently studied. This study focused on the System 2 process for large number estimation. First, we described an estimation process based on participants’ verbal reports. The task, corresponding to the problem-solving process, consisted of creating subgoals, retrieving values, and applying operations. Second, we investigated the influence of such deliberative process by System 2 on intuitive estimation by System 1, using anchoring effects. The results of the experiment showed that the System 2 process could mitigate anchoring effects.

78 FR 54729 - Reports, Forms, and Record Keeping Requirements

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-05

... information: Title--NHTSA Distracted Driving Survey Project. Type of Request--Revision of previously approved... region, age, and gender. The National Survey on Distracted Driving Attitudes and Behaviors (NSDDAB) will... driving behaviors. The estimated average amount of time to complete the survey is 20 minutes. This...

Comparison of two spectrometers for profile soil carbon sensing

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Visible and near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy satisfies the need for speed and precision in estimation of soil carbon and other soil properties. Previous work has established accuracy of the method, with much of the reported research done using bench spectrometers from a single manufacturer. Ho...

7 CFR 225.8 - Records and reports.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

.... (a) Each State agency shall maintain complete and accurate current accounting records of its Program... must also notify the appropriate FNSRO within 5 working days after they approve each private nonprofit... estimated daily attendance that was previously provided; (ii) The hours and type(s) of approved meal service...

Traffic monitoring using satellite and ground data : preparation for feasibility tests and an operational system, final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-04-01

Satellite imagery could conceivably be added to data traditionally collected in traffic monitoring programs to allow wide spatial coverage unobtainable from ground-based sensors in a safe, off-the-road environment. Previously, we estimated that 1-m r...

Availability analysis of an HTGR fuel recycle facility. Summary report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharmahd, J.N.

1979-11-01

An availability analysis of reprocessing systems in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel recycle facility was completed. This report summarizes work done to date to define and determine reprocessing system availability for a previously planned HTGR recycle reference facility (HRRF). Schedules and procedures for further work during reprocessing development and for HRRF design and construction are proposed in this report. Probable failure rates, transfer times, and repair times are estimated for major system components. Unscheduled down times are summarized.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Comment on "The extent of forest in dryland biomes".

PubMed

Griffith, Daniel M; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Strömberg, Caroline A E; Parr, Catherine L; Pennington, R Toby; Sankaran, Mahesh; Ratnam, Jayashree; Still, Christopher J; Powell, Rebecca L; Hanan, Niall P; Nippert, Jesse B; Osborne, Colin P; Good, Stephen P; Anderson, T Michael; Holdo, Ricardo M; Veldman, Joseph W; Durigan, Giselda; Tomlinson, Kyle W; Hoffmann, William A; Archibald, Sally; Bond, William J

2017-11-17

Bastin et al (Reports, 12 May 2017, p. 635) infer forest as more globally extensive than previously estimated using tree cover data. However, their forest definition does not reflect ecosystem function or biotic composition. These structural and climatic definitions inflate forest estimates across the tropics and undermine conservation goals, leading to inappropriate management policies and practices in tropical grassy ecosystems. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Dose estimates for the 1104 m APS storage ring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moe, H.J.

1989-06-01

The estimated dose equivalent rates outside the shielded storage ring, and the estimated annual dose equivalent to members of the public due to direct radiation and skyshine from the ring, have been recalculated. The previous estimates found in LS-84 (MOE 87) and cited in the 1987 Conceptual Design Report of the APS (ANL 87) required revision because of changes in the ring circumference and in the proposed location of the ring with respect to the nearest site boundary. The values assumed for the neutron quality factors were also overestimated (by a factor of 2) in the previous computation, and themore » correct values have been used for this estimate. The methodology used to compute dose and dose rate from the storage ring is the same as that used in LS-90 (MOE 87a). The calculations assumed 80 cm thick walls of ordinary concrete (or the shielding equivalent of this) and a roof thickness of 1 meter of ordinary concrete. The circumference of the ring was increased to 1,104 m, and the closest distance to the boundary was taken as 140 m. The recalculation of the skyshine component used the same methodology as that used in LS-84.« less

The HIV care cascade in Switzerland: reaching the UNAIDS/WHO targets for patients diagnosed with HIV.

PubMed

Kohler, Philipp; Schmidt, Axel J; Cavassini, Matthias; Furrer, Hansjakob; Calmy, Alexandra; Battegay, Manuel; Bernasconi, Enos; Ledergerber, Bruno; Vernazza, Pietro

2015-11-28

To describe the HIV care cascade for Switzerland in the year 2012. Six levels were defined: (i) HIV-infected, (ii) HIV-diagnosed, (iii) linked to care, (iv) retained in care, (v) on antiretroviral treatment (ART), and (vi) with suppressed viral load. We used data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) complemented by a nationwide survey among SHCS physicians to estimate the number of HIV-patients not registered in the cohort. We also used Swiss ART sales data to estimate the number of patients treated outside the SHCS network. Based on the number of patients retained in care, we inferred the estimates for levels (i) to (iii) from previously published data. We estimate that (i) 15 200 HIV-infected individuals lived in Switzerland in 2012 (margins of uncertainty, 13 400-19 300). Of those, (ii) 12 300 (81%) were diagnosed, (iii) 12 200 (80%) linked, and (iv) 11 900 (79%) retained in care. Broadly based on SHCS network data, (v) 10 800 (71%) patients were receiving ART, and (vi) 10 400 (68%) had suppressed (<200 copies/ml) viral loads. The vast majority (95%) of patients retained in care were followed within the SHCS network, with 76% registered in the cohort. Our estimate for HIV-infected individuals in Switzerland is substantially lower than previously reported, halving previous national HIV prevalence estimates to 0.2%. In Switzerland in 2012, 91% of patients in care were receiving ART, and 96% of patients on ART had suppressed viral load, meeting recent UNAIDS/WHO targets.

Estimating the prevalence of infertility in Canada

PubMed Central

Bushnik, Tracey; Cook, Jocelynn L.; Yuzpe, A. Albert; Tough, Suzanne; Collins, John

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Over the past 10 years, there has been a significant increase in the use of assisted reproductive technologies in Canada, however, little is known about the overall prevalence of infertility in the population. The purpose of the present study was to estimate the prevalence of current infertility in Canada according to three definitions of the risk of conception. METHODS Data from the infertility component of the 2009–2010 Canadian Community Health Survey were analyzed for married and common-law couples with a female partner aged 18–44. The three definitions of the risk of conception were derived sequentially starting with birth control use in the previous 12 months, adding reported sexual intercourse in the previous 12 months, then pregnancy intent. Prevalence and odds ratios of current infertility were estimated by selected characteristics. RESULTS Estimates of the prevalence of current infertility ranged from 11.5% (95% CI 10.2, 12.9) to 15.7% (95% CI 14.2, 17.4). Each estimate represented an increase in current infertility prevalence in Canada when compared with previous national estimates. Couples with lower parity (0 or 1 child) had significantly higher odds of experiencing current infertility when the female partner was aged 35–44 years versus 18–34 years. Lower odds of experiencing current infertility were observed for multiparous couples regardless of age group of the female partner, when compared with nulliparous couples. CONCLUSIONS The present study suggests that the prevalence of current infertility has increased since the last time it was measured in Canada, and is associated with the age of the female partner and parity. PMID:22258658

Comparison of MRI-based estimates of articular cartilage contact area in the tibiofemoral joint.

PubMed

Henderson, Christopher E; Higginson, Jill S; Barrance, Peter J

2011-01-01

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) detrimentally impacts the lives of millions of older Americans through pain and decreased functional ability. Unfortunately, the pathomechanics and associated deviations from joint homeostasis that OA patients experience are not well understood. Alterations in mechanical stress in the knee joint may play an essential role in OA; however, existing literature in this area is limited. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of an existing magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based modeling method to estimate articular cartilage contact area in vivo. Imaging data of both knees were collected on a single subject with no history of knee pathology at three knee flexion angles. Intra-observer reliability and sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the role of operator-influenced elements of the data processing on the results. The method's articular cartilage contact area estimates were compared with existing contact area estimates in the literature. The method demonstrated an intra-observer reliability of 0.95 when assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient and was found to be most sensitive to changes in the cartilage tracings on the peripheries of the compartment. The articular cartilage contact area estimates at full extension were similar to those reported in the literature. The relationships between tibiofemoral articular cartilage contact area and knee flexion were also qualitatively and quantitatively similar to those previously reported. The MRI-based knee modeling method was found to have high intra-observer reliability, sensitivity to peripheral articular cartilage tracings, and agreeability with previous investigations when using data from a single healthy adult. Future studies will implement this modeling method to investigate the role that mechanical stress may play in progression of knee OA through estimation of articular cartilage contact area.

International Balance of Payments Program--Accounting, Reporting and Estimating

DTIC Science & Technology

1969-01-16

nonappropriated fund, and individual contract hire). • Change 2, 9/16/69 -3- DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DIRECTIVES SYSTEM TRANSMITTAL NUMBER DATE I STR I ?UT...WHEN PRESCRIBED ACTION HAS BEEN TAKEN, THIS TRANSMITTAL SHOULD BE FILED WITH THE BASIC DOCUMENT SD FORN 106--1 PREVIOUS EOITIONS ARE OBSOLETE MUNG (R

A procedure for estimating the frequency distribution of CO levels in the micro-region of a highway.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-01-01

This report demonstrates that the probability of violating a "not to be exceeded more than once per year", one-hour air quality standard can be bounded from above. This result represents a significant improvement over previous methods of ascertaining...

Cost Sensitivity Analysis for Consolidated Interim Storage of Spent Fuel: Evaluating the Effect of Economic Environment Parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cumberland, Riley M.; Williams, Kent Alan; Jarrell, Joshua J.

This report evaluates how the economic environment (i.e., discount rate, inflation rate, escalation rate) can impact previously estimated differences in lifecycle costs between an integrated waste management system with an interim storage facility (ISF) and a similar system without an ISF.

Mental Disorder Among Homeless Persons in the United States: An Overview of Recent Empirical Literature.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robertson, Marjorie J.

1986-01-01

Reviews literature on the homeless reporting higher rates of psychiatric disorder, psychological distress, and previous psychiatric hospitalization compared to the general population. However, understandardized methodology and lack of consistent findings across studies prohibit reliable prevalence estimates of mental disorder among the homeless.…

Soil organic carbon pools in the northern circumpolar permafrost region

Treesearch

C. Tarnocai; J.G. Canadell; E.A.G. Schuur; P. Kuhry; G. Mazhitova; S. Zimov

2009-01-01

The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database was developed to determine carbon pools in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Here we report a new estimate of the carbon pools in soils of the northern permafrost region, including deeper layers and pools not accounted for in previous analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kurtz, S.

This report summarizes the current status of the CPV industry and is updated from previous versions to include information from the last year. New information presented at the CPV-8 conference is included along with the addition of new companies that have announced their interest in CPV, and estimates of production volumes for 2011 and 2012.

Relation of precipitation to annual ground-water recharge in the Edwards Aquifer, San Antonio area, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Puente, Celso

1975-01-01

The report includes a brief review of the geology and hydrology of the Edwards aquifer, a discussion of the preparation and evaluation of the precipitation data used in the regression analyses, and a brief summary of the method previously used to estimate recharge.

Determination of kinetic parameters for 123-I thyroid uptake in healthy Japanese

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusuhara, Hiroyuki; Maeda, Kazuya

2017-09-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the kinetic parameters for iodide thyroid accumulation in Japanese today with previously reported values. We determined the thyroid uptake of 123-I at 24 hours after the oral administration in healthy male Japanese without any diet restriction. The mean value was 16.1±5.4%, which was similar or rather lower than those previously reported in Japan (1958-1972). Kinetic model analysis was conducted to obtain the clearance for thyroid uptake from the blood circulation. The thyroid uptake clearance of 123-I was 0.540±0.073 ml/min, which was almost similar to those reported previously. There is no obvious difference in the thyroid uptake for 24 hours, and kinetic parameters in healthy Japanese for these 50 years. The fraction of distributed to the thyroid gland is lower than the ICRP reference man, and such difference must be taken into consideration to estimate the radiation exposure upon Fukushima accident in Japan.

Life-Cycle Cost/Benefit Assessment of Expedite Departure Path (EDP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jianzhong Jay; Chang, Paul; Datta, Koushik

2005-01-01

This report presents a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment (LCCBA) of Expedite Departure Path (EDP), an air traffic control Decision Support Tool (DST) currently under development at NASA. This assessment is an update of a previous study performed by bd Systems, Inc. (bd) during FY01, with the following revisions: The life-cycle cost assessment methodology developed by bd for the previous study was refined and calibrated using Free Flight Phase 1 (FFP1) cost information for Traffic Management Advisor (TMA, or TMA-SC in the FAA's terminology). Adjustments were also made to the site selection and deployment scheduling methodology to include airspace complexity as a factor. This technique was also applied to the benefit extrapolation methodology to better estimate potential benefits for other years, and at other sites. This study employed a new benefit estimating methodology because bd s previous single year potential benefit assessment of EDP used unrealistic assumptions that resulted in optimistic estimates. This methodology uses an air traffic simulation approach to reasonably predict the impacts from the implementation of EDP. The results of the costs and benefits analyses were then integrated into a life-cycle cost/benefit assessment.

Absolute binding free energies between T4 lysozyme and 141 small molecules: calculations based on multiple rigid receptor configurations

PubMed Central

Xie, Bing; Nguyen, Trung Hai; Minh, David D. L.

2017-01-01

We demonstrate the feasibility of estimating protein-ligand binding free energies using multiple rigid receptor configurations. Based on T4 lysozyme snapshots extracted from six alchemical binding free energy calculations with a flexible receptor, binding free energies were estimated for a total of 141 ligands. For 24 ligands, the calculations reproduced flexible-receptor estimates with a correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a root mean square error of 1.59 kcal/mol. The accuracy of calculations based on Poisson-Boltzmann/Surface Area implicit solvent was comparable to previously reported free energy calculations. PMID:28430432

The costs of managing genital warts in the UK by devolved nation: England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

PubMed

Coles, V A H; Chapman, R; Lanitis, T; Carroll, S M

2016-01-01

Genital warts, 90% of which are caused by human papillomavirus types 6 and 11, are a significant problem in the UK. The cost of managing genital warts was previously estimated at £52.4 million for 2010. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost of genital warts management up to 2012 in the UK and by jurisdiction. Population statistics and the number of reported genital warts cases in genito-urinary medicine clinics were obtained and extrapolated to 2012. Cases of genital warts treated in primary care were estimated from The Health Improvement Network database. The number of visits and therapy required were estimated by genito-urinary medicine experts. Costs were obtained from the appropriate national tariffs. The model estimated there were 220,875 genital warts cases in the UK in 2012, costing £58.44 million (£265/patient). It estimated 157,793 cases in England costing £41.74 million; 7468 cases in Scotland costing £1.90 million; 7095 cases in Wales costing £1.87 million; and 3621 cases in Northern Ireland costing £948,000. The full National Health Service costs for the management of genital warts have never previously been estimated separately for each jurisdiction. Findings reveal a significant economic burden, which is important to quantify when understanding the value of quadrivalent human papilloma virus vaccination. © The Author(s) 2015.

Perfluorinated compounds in human breast milk from several Asian countries, and in infant formula and dairy milk from the United States.

PubMed

Tao, Lin; Ma, Jing; Kunisue, Tatsuya; Libelo, E Laurence; Tanabe, Shinsuke; Kannan, Kurunthachalam

2008-11-15

The occurrence of perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in human blood is known to be widespread; nevertheless, the sources of exposure to humans, including infants, are not well understood. In this study, breast milk collected from seven countries in Asia was analyzed (n=184) for nine PFCs, including perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoate (PFOA). In addition, five brands of infant formula (n=21) and 11 brands of dairy milk (n=12) collected from retail stores in the United States were analyzed, for comparison with PFC concentrations previously reported for breast milk from the U.S. PFOS was the predominant PFC detected in almost all Asian breast milk samples, followed by perfluorohexanesulfonate (PFHxS) and PFOA. Median concentrations of PFOS in breast milk from Asian countries varied significantly;the lowest concentration of 39.4 pg/mL was found in India, and the highest concentration of 196 pg/mL was found in Japan. The measured concentrations were similarto or less than the concentrations previously reported from Sweden, the United States, and Germany (median, 106-166 pg/mL). PFHxS was found in more than 70% of the samples analyzed from Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam, at mean concentrations ranging from 6.45 (Malaysia) to 15.8 (Philippines) pg/mL PFOA was found frequently only in samples from Japan; the mean concentration for that country was 77.7 pg/mL. None of the PFCs were detected in the infant-formula or dairy-milk samples from the U.S. except a few samples that contained concentrations close to the limit of detection. The estimated average daily intake of PFOS by infants from seven Asian countries, via breastfeeding, was 11.8 +/- 10.6 ng/kg bw/ day; this value is 7-12 times higher than the estimated adult dietary intakes previously reported from Germany, Canada, and Spain. The average daily intake of PFOA by Japanese infants was 9.6 +/- 4.9 ng/kg bw/day, a value 3-10 times greater than the estimated adult dietary intakes reported from Germany and Canada. The highest estimated daily intakes of PFOS and PFOA by infants from seven Asian countries studied were 1-2 orders of magnitude below the tolerable daily intake values recommended by the U.K. Food Standards Agency.

The Dynamics of Glomerular Ultrafiltration in the Rat

PubMed Central

Brenner, Barry M.; Troy, Julia L.; Daugharty, Terrance M.

1971-01-01

Using a unique strain of Wistar rats endowed with glomeruli situated directly on the renal cortical surface, we measured glomerular capillary pressures using servo-nulling micropipette transducer techniques. Pressures in 12 glomerular capillaries from 7 rats averaged 60 cm H2O, or approximately 50% of mean systemic arterial values. Wave form characteristics for these glomerular capillaries were found to be remarkably similar to those of the central aorta. From similarly direct estimates of hydrostatic pressures in proximal tubules, and colloid osmotic pressures in systemic and efferent arteriolar plasmas, the net driving force for ultrafiltration was calculated. The average value of 14 cm H2O is lower by some two-thirds than the majority of estimates reported previously based on indirect techniques. Single nephron GFR (glomerular filtration rate) was also measured in these rats, thereby permitting calculation of the glomerular capillary ultrafiltration coefficient. The average value of 0.044 nl sec−1 cm H2O−1 glomerulus−1 is at least fourfold greater than previous estimates derived from indirect observations. PMID:5097578

Laboratory Studies on Surface Sampling of Bacillus anthracis Contamination: Summary, Gaps, and Recommendations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, Gregory F.; Amidan, Brett G.; Hu, Rebecca

2011-11-28

This report summarizes previous laboratory studies to characterize the performance of methods for collecting, storing/transporting, processing, and analyzing samples from surfaces contaminated by Bacillus anthracis or related surrogates. The focus is on plate culture and count estimates of surface contamination for swab, wipe, and vacuum samples of porous and nonporous surfaces. Summaries of the previous studies and their results were assessed to identify gaps in information needed as inputs to calculate key parameters critical to risk management in biothreat incidents. One key parameter is the number of samples needed to make characterization or clearance decisions with specified statistical confidence. Othermore » key parameters include the ability to calculate, following contamination incidents, the (1) estimates of Bacillus anthracis contamination, as well as the bias and uncertainties in the estimates, and (2) confidence in characterization and clearance decisions for contaminated or decontaminated buildings. Gaps in knowledge and understanding identified during the summary of the studies are discussed and recommendations are given for future studies.« less

The Physical Effects of Contact and Close-Distance Gunfire on Sweatshirt Fleece.

PubMed

Kusluski, Michael A

2018-05-01

Powder stippling caused by the impact of propellant particles during close-distance gunfire has been previously described on skin and solid objects only. Additionally, radial tearing has been described as clear evidence of a contact-distance shot, requiring no further testing. Patterns of discrete perforating holes (referred to here as "stippling perforations") and other physical damage on sweatshirt fleece fabrics were prepared. Using the firearm and ammunition in this study, stippling perforations were observed to a maximum muzzle-to-target distance of 35 cm (10 inches). In addition, radial tearing and disintegration were present (and often more extensive) at greater than contact distance. The presence of stippling perforations could augment muzzle-to-target distance estimates generated using the Griess test, or allow distance estimates when the Griess test is not feasible. Unlike what has been previously reported, testing on the original evidence (or similar substitute) is warranted when physical damage is used to estimate shooting distance. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Risk factors for persistent problems following acute whiplash injury: update of a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Walton, David M; Macdermid, Joy C; Giorgianni, Anthony A; Mascarenhas, Joanna C; West, Stephen C; Zammit, Caroline A

2013-02-01

Systematic review and meta-analysis. To update a previous review and meta-analysis on risk factors for persistent problems following whiplash secondary to a motor vehicle accident. Prognosis in whiplash-associated disorder (WAD) has become an active area of research, perhaps owing to the difficulty of treating chronic problems. A previously published review and meta-analysis of prognostic factors included primary sources up to May 2007. Since that time, more research has become available, and an update to that original review is warranted. A systematic search of international databases was conducted, with rigorous inclusion criteria focusing on studies published between May 2007 and May 2012. Articles were scored, and data were extracted and pooled to estimate the odds ratio for any factor that had at least 3 independent data points in the literature. Four new cohorts (n = 1121) were identified. In combination with findings of a previous review, 12 variables were found to be significant predictors of poor outcome following whiplash, 9 of which were new (n = 2) or revised (n = 7) as a result of additional data. The significant variables included high baseline pain intensity (greater than 5.5/10), report of headache at inception, less than postsecondary education, no seatbelt in use during the accident, report of low back pain at inception, high Neck Disability Index score (greater than 14.5/50), preinjury neck pain, report of neck pain at inception (regardless of intensity), high catastrophizing, female sex, WAD grade 2 or 3, and WAD grade 3 alone. Those variables robust to publication bias included high pain intensity, female sex, report of headache at inception, less than postsecondary education, high Neck Disability Index score, and WAD grade 2 or 3. Three existing variables (preaccident history of headache, rear-end collision, older age) and 1 additional novel variable (collision severity) were refined or added in this updated review but showed no significant predictive value. This review identified 2 additional prognostic factors and refined the estimates of 7 previously identified factors, bringing the total number of significant predictors across the 2 reviews to 12. These factors can be easily identified in a clinical setting to provide estimates of prognosis following whiplash.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage in young Australian women is higher than previously estimated: independent estimates from a nationally representative mobile phone survey.

PubMed

Brotherton, Julia M L; Liu, Bette; Donovan, Basil; Kaldor, John M; Saville, Marion

2014-01-23

Accurate estimates of coverage are essential for estimating the population effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination. Australia has a purpose built National HPV Vaccination Program Register for monitoring coverage, however notification of doses administered to young women in the community during the national catch-up program (2007-2009) was not compulsory. In 2011, we undertook a population-based mobile phone survey of young women to independently estimate HPV vaccination coverage. Randomly generated mobile phone numbers were dialed to recruit women aged 22-30 (age eligible for HPV vaccination) to complete a computer assisted telephone interview. Consent was sought to validate self reported HPV vaccination status against the national register. Coverage rates were calculated based on self report and weighted to the age and state of residence structure of the Australian female population. These were compared with coverage estimates from the register using Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated resident populations as the denominator. Among the 1379 participants, the national estimate for self reported HPV vaccination coverage for doses 1/2/3, respectively, weighted for age and state of residence, was 64/59/53%. This compares with coverage of 55/45/32% and 49/40/28% based on register records, using 2007 and 2011 population data as the denominators respectively. Some significant differences in coverage between the states were identified. 20% (223) of women returned a consent form allowing validation of doses against the register and provider records: among these women 85.6% (538) of self reported doses were confirmed. We confirmed that coverage rates for young women vaccinated in the community (at age 18-26 years) are underestimated by the national register and that under-notification is greater for second and third doses. Using 2011 population estimates, rather than estimates contemporaneous with the program rollout, reduces register-based coverage estimates further because of large population increases due to immigration since the program. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized weighted likelihood density estimators with application to finite mixture of exponential family distributions

PubMed Central

Zhan, Tingting; Chevoneva, Inna; Iglewicz, Boris

2010-01-01

The family of weighted likelihood estimators largely overlaps with minimum divergence estimators. They are robust to data contaminations compared to MLE. We define the class of generalized weighted likelihood estimators (GWLE), provide its influence function and discuss the efficiency requirements. We introduce a new truncated cubic-inverse weight, which is both first and second order efficient and more robust than previously reported weights. We also discuss new ways of selecting the smoothing bandwidth and weighted starting values for the iterative algorithm. The advantage of the truncated cubic-inverse weight is illustrated in a simulation study of three-components normal mixtures model with large overlaps and heavy contaminations. A real data example is also provided. PMID:20835375

Occupational COPD and job exposure matrices: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Sadhra, Steven; Kurmi, Om P; Sadhra, Sandeep S; Lam, Kin Bong Hubert; Ayres, Jon G

2017-01-01

Background The association between occupational exposure and COPD reported previously has mostly been derived from studies relying on self-reported exposure to vapors, gases, dust, or fumes (VGDF), which could be subjective and prone to biases. The aim of this study was to assess the strength of association between exposure and COPD from studies that derived exposure by job exposure matrices (JEMs). Methods A systematic search of JEM-based occupational COPD studies published between 1980 and 2015 was conducted in PubMed and EMBASE, followed by meta-analysis. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model, with results presented as a pooled effect estimate with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The quality of study (risk of bias and confounding) was assessed by 13 RTI questionnaires. Heterogeneity between studies and its possible sources were assessed by Egger test and meta-regression, respectively. Results In all, 61 studies were identified and 29 were included in the meta-analysis. Based on JEM-based studies, there was 22% (pooled odds ratio =1.22; 95% CI 1.18–1.27) increased risk of COPD among those exposed to airborne pollutants arising from occupation. Comparatively, higher risk estimates were obtained for general populations JEMs (based on expert consensus) than workplace-based JEM were derived using measured exposure data (1.26; 1.20–1.33 vs 1.14; 1.10–1.19). Higher risk estimates were also obtained for self-reported exposure to VGDF than JEMs-based exposure to VGDF (1.91; 1.72–2.13 vs 1.10; 1.06–1.24). Dusts, particularly biological dusts (1.33; 1.17–1.51), had the highest risk estimates for COPD. Although the majority of occupational COPD studies focus on dusty environments, no difference in risk estimates was found for the common forms of occupational airborne pollutants. Conclusion Our findings highlight the need to interpret previous studies with caution as self-reported exposure to VGDF may have overestimated the risk of occupational COPD. PMID:28260879

The Effects of Numerical Magnitude, Size, and Color Saturation on Perceived Interval Duration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alards-Tomalin, Doug; Leboe-McGowan, Jason P.; Shaw, Joshua D. M.; Leboe-McGowan, Launa C.

2014-01-01

The relative magnitude (or intensity) of an event can have direct implications on timing estimation. Previous studies have found that greater magnitude stimuli are often reported as longer in duration than lesser magnitudes, including Arabic digits (Xuan, Zhang, He, & Chen, 2007). One explanation for these findings is that different…

Guaiacol hydrodeoxygenation mechanism on Pt(111): Insights from density functional theory and linear free energy relations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In this study density functional theory (DFT) was used to study the adsorption of guaiacol and its initial hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) reactions on Pt(111). Previously reported Brønsted–Evans–Polanyi (BEP) correlations for small open chain molecules are found to be inadequate in estimating the reaction...

Maternal Employment and Caring for Children with Disabilities. Data Trends #95

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Research and Training Center on Family Support and Children's Mental Health, 2004

2004-01-01

"Data Trends" reports present summaries of research on mental health services for children and adolescents and their families. The article summarized in this "Data Trends" addresses several gaps in previous research estimating the impact of caregiving on employment. For instance, prior studies employ a variety of disability definitions, making it…

Cancer Incidence in Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia: Disparities in Appalachia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lengerich, Eugene J.; Tucker, Thomas C.; Powell, Raymond K.; Colsher, Pat; Lehman, Erik; Ward, Ann J.; Siedlecki, Jennifer C.; Wyatt, Stephen W.

2005-01-01

Composed of all or a portion of 13 states, Appalachia is a heterogeneous, economically disadvantaged region of the eastern United States. While mortality from cancer in Appalachia has previously been reported to be elevated, rates of cancer incidence in Appalachia remain unreported. Purpose:To estimate Appalachian cancer incidence by stage and…

Long-Distance Romantic Relationships: Prevalence and Separation-Related Symptoms in College Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guldner, Gregory T.

1996-01-01

College students in long-distance romantic relationships (LDRs; n=164) were compared to 170 students in geographically proximal relationships (PRs) on measures of psychological distress. Those in LDRs reported significantly more symptoms of depression. Also, a prevalence estimate was obtained, and it supported previous research suggesting that 25%…

Changes in School Climate in a Long-Term Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kallestad, Jan Helge

2010-01-01

In a previous report five school climate instruments were explored (1983 and 1985), and four scales were regarded as meaningful climate measures according to suggested criteria. These scales were re-inspected in the present study (1997 and 1998) by analyses of internal consistency, estimates of reliability (unit and aggregated reliability), and…

Controlled Multivariate Evaluation of Open Education: Application of a Critical Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sewell, Alan F.; And Others

This paper continues previous reports of a controlled multivariate evaluation of a junior high school open-education program. A new method of estimating program objectives and implementation is presented, together with the nature and degree of obtained student outcomes. Open-program students were found to approve more highly of their learning…

Spatiotemporal requirements of the Hainan gibbon: Does home range constrain recovery of the world's rarest ape?

PubMed

Bryant, Jessica V; Zeng, Xingyuan; Hong, Xiaojiang; Chatterjee, Helen J; Turvey, Samuel T

2017-03-01

Conservation management requires an evidence-based approach, as uninformed decisions can signify the difference between species recovery and loss. The Hainan gibbon, the world's rarest ape, reportedly exploits the largest home range of any gibbon species, with these apparently large spatial requirements potentially limiting population recovery. However, previous home range assessments rarely reported survey methods, effort, or analytical approaches, hindering critical evaluation of estimate reliability. For extremely rare species where data collection is challenging, it also is unclear what impact such limitations have on estimating home range requirements. We re-evaluated Hainan gibbon spatial ecology using 75 hr of observations from 35 contact days over 93 field-days across dry (November 2010-February 2011) and wet (June 2011-September 2011) seasons. We calculated home range area for three social groups (N = 21 individuals) across the sampling period, seasonal estimates for one group (based on 24 days of observation; 12 days per season), and between-group home range overlap using multiple approaches (Minimum Convex Polygon, Kernel Density Estimation, Local Convex Hull, Brownian Bridge Movement Model), and assessed estimate reliability and representativeness using three approaches (Incremental Area Analysis, spatial concordance, and exclusion of expected holes). We estimated a yearly home range of 1-2 km 2 , with 1.49 km 2 closest to the median of all estimates. Although Hainan gibbon spatial requirements are relatively large for gibbons, our new estimates are smaller than previous estimates used to explain the species' limited recovery, suggesting that habitat availability may be less important in limiting population growth. We argue that other ecological, genetic, and/or anthropogenic factors are more likely to constrain Hainan gibbon recovery, and conservation attention should focus on elucidating and managing these factors. Re-evaluation reveals Hainan gibbon home range as c. 1-2 km 2 . Hainan gibbon home range is, therefore, similar to other Nomascus gibbons. Limited data for extremely rare species does not necessarily prevent derivation of robust home range estimates. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

SOLID WASTE INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNICAL (SWIFT) REPORT FY2005 THRU FY2035 2005.0 VOLUME 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BARCOT, R.A.

This report provides up-to-date life cycle information about the radioactive solid waste expected to be managed by Hanford's Waste Management (WM) Project from onsite and offsite generators. It includes: (1) an overview of Hanford-wide solid waste to be managed by the WM Project; (2) multi-level and waste class-specific estimates; (3) background information on waste sources; and (4) comparisons to previous forecasts and other national data sources. The focus of this report is low-level waste (LLW), mixed low-level waste (MLLW), and transuranic waste, both non-mixed and mixed (TRU(M)). Some details on hazardous waste are also provided, however, this information is notmore » considered comprehensive. This report includes data requested in December, 2004 with updates through March 31,2005. The data represent a life cycle forecast covering all reported activities from FY2005 through the end of each program's life cycle and are an update of the previous FY2004.1 data version.« less

Manipulating the reported age in earliest memories.

PubMed

Wessel, Ineke; Schweig, Theresa; Huntjens, Rafaële J C

2017-11-02

Previous work suggests that the estimated age in adults' earliest autobiographical memories depends on age information implied by the experimental context [e.g., Kingo, O. S., Bohn, A., & Krøjgaard, P. (2013). Warm-up questions on early childhood memories affect the reported age of earliest memories in late adolescence. Memory, 21(2), 280-284. doi: 10.1080/09658211.2012.729598 ] and that the age in decontextualised snippets of memory is younger than in more complete accounts (i.e., event memories [Bruce, D., Wilcox-O'Hearn, L. A., Robinson, J. A., Phillips-Grant, K., Francis, L., & Smith, M. C. (2005). Fragment memories mark the end of childhood amnesia. Memory & Cognition, 33(4), 567-576. doi: 10.3758/BF03195324 ]). We examined the malleability of the estimated age in undergraduates' earliest memories and its relation with memory quality. In Study 1 (n = 141), vignettes referring to events happening at age 2 rendered earlier reported ages than examples referring to age 6. Exploratory analyses suggested that event memories were more sensitive to the age manipulation than memories representing a single, isolated scene (i.e., snapshots). In Study 2 (n = 162), asking self-relevant and public-event knowledge questions about participants' preschool years prior to retrieval yielded comparable average estimated ages. Both types of semantic knowledge questions rendered earlier memories than a no-age control task. Overall, the reported age in snapshots was younger than in event memories. However, age-differences between memory types across conditions were not statistically significant. Together, the results add to the growing literature indicating that the average age in earliest memories is not as fixed as previously thought.

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model.

PubMed

Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng; Sun, Zhenglong; Qu, Xingda

2018-02-01

Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial-lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior-posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly.

Estimation of Foot Plantar Center of Pressure Trajectories with Low-Cost Instrumented Insoles Using an Individual-Specific Nonlinear Model

PubMed Central

Hu, Xinyao; Zhao, Jun; Peng, Dongsheng

2018-01-01

Postural control is a complex skill based on the interaction of dynamic sensorimotor processes, and can be challenging for people with deficits in sensory functions. The foot plantar center of pressure (COP) has often been used for quantitative assessment of postural control. Previously, the foot plantar COP was mainly measured by force plates or complicated and expensive insole-based measurement systems. Although some low-cost instrumented insoles have been developed, their ability to accurately estimate the foot plantar COP trajectory was not robust. In this study, a novel individual-specific nonlinear model was proposed to estimate the foot plantar COP trajectories with an instrumented insole based on low-cost force sensitive resistors (FSRs). The model coefficients were determined by a least square error approximation algorithm. Model validation was carried out by comparing the estimated COP data with the reference data in a variety of postural control assessment tasks. We also compared our data with the COP trajectories estimated by the previously well accepted weighted mean approach. Comparing with the reference measurements, the average root mean square errors of the COP trajectories of both feet were 2.23 mm (±0.64) (left foot) and 2.72 mm (±0.83) (right foot) along the medial–lateral direction, and 9.17 mm (±1.98) (left foot) and 11.19 mm (±2.98) (right foot) along the anterior–posterior direction. The results are superior to those reported in previous relevant studies, and demonstrate that our proposed approach can be used for accurate foot plantar COP trajectory estimation. This study could provide an inexpensive solution to fall risk assessment in home settings or community healthcare center for the elderly. It has the potential to help prevent future falls in the elderly. PMID:29389857

Estimating the long-term costs of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke for Australia: new evidence derived from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS).

PubMed

Cadilhac, Dominique A; Carter, Rob; Thrift, Amanda G; Dewey, Helen M

2009-03-01

Stroke is associated with considerable societal costs. Cost-of-illness studies have been undertaken to estimate lifetime costs; most incorporating data up to 12 months after stroke. Costs of stroke, incorporating data collected up to 12 months, have previously been reported from the North East Melbourne Stroke Incidence Study (NEMESIS). NEMESIS now has patient-level resource use data for 5 years. We aimed to recalculate the long-term resource utilization of first-ever stroke patients and compare these to previous estimates obtained using data collected to 12 months. Population structure, life expectancy, and unit prices within the original cost-of-illness models were updated from 1997 to 2004. New Australian stroke survival and recurrence data up to 10 years were incorporated, as well as cross-sectional resource utilization data at 3, 4, and 5 years from NEMESIS. To enable comparisons, 1997 costs were inflated to 2004 prices and discounting was standardized. In 2004, 27 291 ischemic stroke (IS) and 4291 intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke (ICH) first-ever events were estimated. Average annual resource use after 12 months was AU$6022 for IS and AU$3977 for ICH. This is greater than the 1997 estimates for IS (AU$4848) and less than those for ICH (previously AU$10 692). The recalculated average lifetime costs per first-ever case differed for IS (AU$57 106 versus AU$52 855 [1997]), but differed more for ICH (AU$49 995 versus AU$92 308 [1997]). Basing lifetime cost estimates on short-term data overestimated the costs for ICH and underestimated those for IS. Patterns of resource use varied by stroke subtype and, overall, the societal cost impact was large.

Approximation of effective moisture-diffusion coefficient to characterize performance of a barrier coating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagai, Shingo

2013-11-01

We report estimation of the effective diffusion coefficient of moisture through a barrier coating to develop an encapsulation technology for the thin-film electronics industry. This investigation targeted a silicon oxide (SiOx) film that was deposited on a plastic substrate by a large-process-area web coater. Using the finite difference method based on diffusion theory, our estimation of the effective diffusion coefficient of a SiOx film corresponded to that of bulk glass that was previously reported. This result suggested that the low diffusivities of barrier films can be obtained on a mass-production level in the factory. In this investigation, experimental observations and mathematical confirmation revealed the limit of the water vapor transmission rate on the single barrier coating.

West Nile virus activity--United States, 2006.

PubMed

2007-06-08

West Nile virus (WNV) is the leading cause of arboviral encephalitis in the United States. Originally discovered in Africa in 1937, WNV was first detected in the western hemisphere in 1999 in New York City. Since then, WNV has caused seasonal epidemics of febrile illness and severe neurologic disease in the United States. This report summarizes provisional WNV surveillance data for 2006 reported to CDC as of April 3, 2007. During 2006, WNV transmission to humans or animals expanded into 52 counties that had not previously reported transmission and recurred in 1,350 counties where transmission had been reported in previous years. In addition, 1,491 cases of WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) were reported in the United States during this period, amounting to a 14% increase from 2005 and the largest number reported since 2003. On the basis of extrapolations from past serosurveys, an estimated 41,750 cases of non-neuroinvasive WNV disease occurred in 2006; of these cases, 2,770 were reported. These findings highlight the need for ongoing surveillance, mosquito control, promotion of personal protection from mosquito bites, and research into additional prevention strategies.

Estimation of the Operating Characteristics when the Test Information of the Old Test is not Constant II: Simple Sum Procedure of the Conditional P.D.F. Approach/Normal Approach Method Using Three Subtests of the Old Test. Research Report 80-4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samejima, Fumiko

The rationale behind the method of estimating the operating characteristics of discrete item responses when the test information of the Old Test is not constant was presented previously. In the present study, two subtests of the Old Test, i.e. Subtests 1, and 2, each of which has a different non-constant test information function, are used in…

Automated assessment of noninvasive filling pressure using color Doppler M-mode echocardiography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greenberg, N. L.; Firstenberg, M. S.; Cardon, L. A.; Zuckerman, J.; Levine, B. D.; Garcia, M. J.; Thomas, J. D.

2001-01-01

Assessment of left ventricular filling pressure usually requires invasive hemodynamic monitoring to follow the progression of disease or the response to therapy. Previous investigations have shown accurate estimation of wedge pressure using noninvasive Doppler information obtained from the ratio of the wave propagation slope from color M-mode (CMM) images and the peak early diastolic filling velocity from transmitral Doppler images. This study reports an automated algorithm that derives an estimate of wedge pressure based on the spatiotemporal velocity distribution available from digital CMM Doppler images of LV filling.

Estimation of geographic variation in human papillomavirus vaccine uptake in men and women: an online survey using facebook recruitment.

PubMed

Nelson, Erik J; Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

2014-09-01

Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need for local estimates to assess the variation in HPV vaccine uptake, as these estimates differ considerably from those obtained using survey data that are aggregated to the state or federal level.

Estimation of Geographic Variation in Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake in Men and Women: An Online Survey Using Facebook Recruitment

PubMed Central

Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

2014-01-01

Background Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Objective Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. Methods From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Results Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). Conclusions This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need for local estimates to assess the variation in HPV vaccine uptake, as these estimates differ considerably from those obtained using survey data that are aggregated to the state or federal level. PMID:25231937

Free vibration of arches flexible in shear.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Austin, W. J.; Veletsos, A. S.

1973-01-01

An analysis reported by Veletsos et al. (1972) concerning the free vibrational characteristics of circular arches vibrating in their own planes is considered. The analysis was based on a theory which neglects the effects of rotatory inertia and shearing deformation. A supplementary investigation is conducted to assess the effects of the previously neglected factors and to identify the conditions under which these effects are of practical significance or may be neglected. A simple approximate procedure is developed for estimating the natural frequencies of arches, giving due consideration to the effects of the previously neglected factors.

Estimating the burden of rhodesiense sleeping sickness during an outbreak in Serere, eastern Uganda

PubMed Central

Fèvre, Eric M; Odiit, Martin; Coleman, Paul G; Woolhouse, Mark EJ; Welburn, Susan C

2008-01-01

Background Zoonotic sleeping sickness, or HAT (Human African Trypanosomiasis), caused by infection with Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense, is an under-reported and neglected tropical disease. Previous assessments of the disease burden expressed as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for this infection have not distinguished T.b. rhodesiense from infection with the related, but clinically distinct Trypanosoma brucei gambiense form. T.b. rhodesiense occurs focally, and it is important to assess the burden at the scale at which resource-allocation decisions are made. Methods The burden of T.b. rhodesiense was estimated during an outbreak of HAT in Serere, Uganda. We identified the unique characteristics affecting the burden of rhodesiense HAT such as age, severity, level of under-reporting and duration of hospitalisation, and use field data and empirical estimates of these to model the burden imposed by this and other important diseases in this study population. While we modelled DALYs using standard methods, we also modelled uncertainty of our parameter estimates through a simulation approach. We distinguish between early and late stage HAT morbidity, and used disability weightings appropriate for the T.b. rhodesiense form of HAT. We also use a model of under-reporting of HAT to estimate the contribution of un-reported mortality to the overall disease burden in this community, and estimate the cost-effectiveness of hospital-based HAT control. Results Under-reporting accounts for 93% of the DALY estimate of rhodesiense HAT. The ratio of reported malaria cases to reported HAT cases in the same health unit was 133:1, however, the ratio of DALYs was 3:1. The age productive function curve had a close correspondence with the HAT case distribution, and HAT cases occupied more patient admission time in Serere during 1999 than all other infectious diseases other than malaria. The DALY estimate for HAT in Serere shows that the burden is much greater than might be expected from its relative incidence. Hospital based control in this setting appears to be highly cost-effective, highlighting the value of increasing coverage of therapy and reducing under-reporting. Conclusion We show the utility of calculating DALYs for neglected diseases at the local decision making level, and emphasise the importance of improved reporting systems for acquiring a better understanding of the burden of neglected zoonotic diseases. PMID:18366755

The Affordable Care Act, Insurance Coverage, and Health Care Utilization of Previously Incarcerated Young Men: 2008-2015.

PubMed

Winkelman, Tyler N A; Choi, HwaJung; Davis, Matthew M

2017-05-01

To estimate health insurance and health care utilization patterns among previously incarcerated men following implementation of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA's) Medicaid expansion and Marketplace plans in 2014. We performed serial cross-sectional analyses using data from the National Survey of Family Growth between 2008 and 2015. Our sample included men aged 18 to 44 years with (n = 3476) and without (n = 8702) a history of incarceration. Uninsurance declined significantly among previously incarcerated men after ACA implementation (-5.9 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -11.5, -0.4), primarily because of an increase in private insurance (6.8 percentage points; 95% CI = 0.1, 13.3). Previously incarcerated men accounted for a large proportion of the remaining uninsured (38.6%) in 2014 to 2015. Following ACA implementation, previously incarcerated men continued to be significantly less likely to report a regular source of primary care and more likely to report emergency department use than were never-incarcerated peers. Health insurance coverage improved among previously incarcerated men following ACA implementation. However, these men account for a substantial proportion of the remaining uninsured. Previously incarcerated men continue to lack primary care and frequently utilize acute care services.

A Critical Assessment of Officially Reported Chagas Disease Surveillance Data in Mexico

PubMed Central

Shelly, Ellen M.; Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo; Ernst, Kacey C.; Sterling, Charles R.

2016-01-01

Objective Chagas disease, a disease caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, disproportionately affects poor people throughout Latin America. In Mexico, assessments of officially reported burden have not been previously reported. To evaluate discontinuity between surveillance data and data from other sources, we used data from the Mexican Ministry of Health to describe the distribution of reported Chagas disease over time in Mexico and compare it with estimates from the literature. Methods We summarized age and sex differences for Chagas cases and mortality for 1995–2013 and 1982–2010, respectively. We examined the spatial distribution of Chagas disease over time with respect to disease burden. We further compared officially reported figures with estimates from the literature. Results Among 6,494 officially reported cases, rates of Chagas disease were highest in adults aged 25–44 years (47.3%). Mortality was highest in adults aged ≥45 years (423/495, 85.5%). The data indicated increasing temporal trends for incidence and mortality. The greatest burden occurred in southern states, with increasing spatial distribution over time. Fewer than 900 cases and 40 deaths were officially reported annually, in contrast to estimates from the literature of approximately 69,000 new cases and 25,000 deaths annually. Conclusion While increasing trends in officially reported data have been observed, large discrepancies in case estimates compromise our understanding of Chagas disease epidemiology. Reported cases based on current practices are not enough to correctly assess the Chagas disease burden and spatial distribution in Mexico. Understanding the true epidemiology of this disease will lead to more focused and successful control and prevention strategies to decrease disease burden. PMID:26843671

An evaluation of self-reported mobile phone use compared to billing records among a group of engineers and scientists.

PubMed

Shum, Mona; Kelsh, Michael A; Sheppard, Asher R; Zhao, Ke

2011-01-01

Most epidemiologic studies of potential health impacts of mobile phones rely on self-reported information, which can lead to exposure misclassification. We compared self-reported questionnaire data among 60 participants, and phone billing records over a 3-year period (2002-2004). Phone usage information was compared by the calculation of the mean and median number of calls and duration of use, as well as correlation coefficients and associated P-values. Average call duration from self-reports was slightly lower than billing records (2.1 min vs. 2.8 min, P = 0.01). Participants reported a higher number of average daily calls than billing records (7.9 vs. 4.1, P = 0.002). Correlation coefficients for average minutes per day of mobile phone use and average number of calls per day were relatively high (R = 0.71 and 0.69, respectively, P < 0.001). Information reported at the monthly level tended to be more accurate than estimates of weekly or daily use. Our findings of modest correlations between self-reported mobile phone usage and billing records and substantial variability in recall are consistent with previous studies. However, the direction of over- and under-reporting was not consistent with previous research. We did not observe increased variability over longer periods of recall or a pattern of lower accuracy among older age groups compared with younger groups. Study limitations included a relatively small sample size, low participation rates, and potential limited generalizability. The variability within studies and non-uniformity across studies indicates that estimation of the frequency and duration of phone use by questionnaires should be supplemented with subscriber records whenever practical. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Congenital Lung Agenesis: Incidence and Outcome in the North of England.

PubMed

Thomas, Matthew; Robertson, Nic; Miller, Nicola; Rankin, Judith; McKean, Michael; Brodlie, Malcom

2017-07-03

Unilateral lung agenesis is an uncommon congenital abnormality, with a lack of reported accurate incidence estimates. Prognosis is also uncertain, with older literature reporting poor outcomes. The North of England register of congenital anomalies (Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey) records cases of congenital anomalies to mothers' resident in the region. We used the register to identify all patients with congenital lung agenesis born between 2004 and 2013 to calculate an accurate incidence estimate and report clinical outcomes with contemporary management. Four patients with congenital lung agenesis were born during the study period, giving an estimated incidence in the North of England of 1.22 per 100,000 live births (95% confidence interval, 0.33-3.11). Two patients had associated congenital heart disease requiring corrective surgery, and one had musculoskeletal anomalies. All four patients are alive and well without a regular oxygen requirement. Contrary to previous reports, the medium term outcomes in our patients have been good, even when lung agenesis is associated with other congenital anomalies. Long-term prognosis with modern management remains unknown, and the potential for the development of pulmonary hypertension remains a concern. Birth Defects Research 109:857-859, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prevalence of Individuals Experiencing the Effects of Stroke in Canada: Trends and Projections.

PubMed

Krueger, Hans; Koot, Jacqueline; Hall, Ruth E; O'Callaghan, Christina; Bayley, Mark; Corbett, Dale

2015-08-01

Previous estimates of the number and prevalence of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada are out of date and exclude critical population groups. It is essential to have complete data that report on stroke disability for monitoring and planning purposes. The objective was to provide an updated estimate of the number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada (and its regions), trending since 2000 and forecasted prevalence to 2038. The prevalence, trends, and projected number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke were estimated using region-specific survey data and adjusted to account for children aged <12 years and individuals living in homes for the aged. In 2013, we estimate that there were 405 000 individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada, yielding a prevalence of 1.15%. This value is expected to increase to between 654 000 and 726 000 by 2038. Trends in stroke data between 2000 and 2012 suggest a nonsignificant decrease in stroke prevalence, but a substantial and rising increase in the number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke. Stroke prevalence varied considerably between regions. Previous estimates of stroke prevalence have underestimated the true number of individuals experiencing the effects of stroke in Canada. Furthermore, the projected increases that will result from population growth and demographic changes highlight the importance of maintaining up-to-date estimates. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

External cephalic version among women with a previous cesarean delivery: report on 36 cases and review of the literature.

PubMed

Abenhaim, Haim A; Varin, Jocelyne; Boucher, Marc

2009-01-01

Whether or not women with a previous cesarean section should be considered for an external cephalic version remains unclear. In our study, we sought to examine the relationship between a history of previous cesarean section and outcomes of external cephalic version for pregnancies at 36 completed weeks of gestation or more. Data on obstetrical history and on external cephalic version outcomes was obtained from the C.H.U. Sainte-Justine External Cephalic Version Database. Baseline clinical characteristics were compared among women with and without a history of previous cesarean section. We used logistic regression analysis to evaluate the effect of previous cesarean section on success of external cephalic version while adjusting for parity, maternal body mass index, gestational age, estimated fetal weight, and amniotic fluid index. Over a 15-year period, 1425 external cephalic versions were attempted of which 36 (2.5%) were performed on women with a previous cesarean section. Although women with a history of previous cesarean section were more likely to be older and para >2 (38.93% vs. 15.0%), there were no difference in gestational age, estimated fetal weight, and amniotic fluid index. Women with a prior cesarean section had a success rate similar to women without [50.0% vs. 51.6%, adjusted OR: 1.31 (0.48-3.59)]. Women with a previous cesarean section who undergo an external cephalic version have similar success rates than do women without. Concern about procedural success in women with a previous cesarean section is unwarranted and should not deter attempting an external cephalic version.

Multiple Novel Prostate Cancer Predisposition Loci Confirmed by an International Study: The PRACTICAL Consortium

PubMed Central

Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Easton, Douglas F.; Stanford, Janet L.; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Schleutker, Johanna; Ingles, Sue A.; Schaid, Daniel; Thibodeau, Stephen; Dörk, Thilo; Neal, David; Cox, Angela; Maier, Christiane; Vogel, Walter; Guy, Michelle; Muir, Kenneth; Lophatananon, Artitaya; Kedda, Mary-Anne; Spurdle, Amanda; Steginga, Suzanne; John, Esther M.; Giles, Graham; Hopper, John; Chappuis, Pierre O.; Hutter, Pierre; Foulkes, William D.; Hamel, Nancy; Salinas, Claudia A.; Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Karyadi, Danielle M.; Johanneson, Bo; Wahlfors, Tiina; Tammela, Teuvo L.; Stern, Mariana C.; Corral, Roman; McDonnell, Shannon K.; Schürmann, Peter; Meyer, Andreas; Kuefer, Rainer; Leongamornlert, Daniel A.; Tymrakiewicz, Malgorzata; Liu, Jo-fen; O'Mara, Tracy; Gardiner, R.A. (Frank); Aitken, Joanne; Joshi, Amit D.; Severi, Gianluca; English, Dallas R.; Southey, Melissa; Edwards, Stephen M.; Amin Al Olama, Ali; Eeles, Rosalind A.

2009-01-01

A recent genome-wide association study found that genetic variants on chromosomes 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 19 and X were associated with prostate cancer risk. We evaluated the most significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in these loci using a worldwide consortium of 13 groups (PRACTICAL). Blood DNA from 7,370 prostate cancer cases and 5,742 male controls was analyzed by genotyping assays. Odds ratios (OR) associated with each genotype were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. Six of the seven SNPs showed clear evidence of association with prostate cancer (P = 0.0007-P = 10−17). For each of these six SNPs, the estimated per-allele OR was similar to those previously reported and ranged from 1.12 to 1.29. One SNP on 3p12 (rs2660753) showed a weaker association than previously reported [per-allele OR, 1.08 (95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.16; P = 0.06) versus 1.18 (95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.31)]. The combined risks associated with each pair of SNPs were consistent with a multiplicative risk model. Under this model, and in combination with previously reported SNPs on 8q and 17q, these loci explain 16% of the familial risk of the disease, and men in the top 10% of the risk distribution have a 2.1-fold increased risk relative to general population rates. This study provides strong confirmation of these susceptibility loci in multiple populations and shows that they make an important contribution to prostate cancer risk prediction. PMID:18708398

A developmental study of risky decisions on the cake gambling task: age and gender analyses of probability estimation and reward evaluation.

PubMed

Van Leijenhorst, Linda; Westenberg, P Michiel; Crone, Eveline A

2008-01-01

Decision making, or the process of choosing between competing courses of actions, is highly sensitive to age-related change, showing development throughout adolescence. In this study, we tested whether the development of decision making under risk is related to changes in risk-estimation abilities. Participants (N = 93) between ages 8-30 performed a child friendly gambling task, the Cake Gambling task, which was inspired by the Cambridge Gambling Task (Rogers et al., 1999), which has previously been shown to be sensitive to orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) damage. The task allowed comparisons of the contributions to risk perception of (1) the ability to estimate probabilities and (2) evaluate rewards. Adult performance patterns were highly similar to those found in previous reports, showing increased risk taking with increases in the probability of winning and the magnitude of potential reward. Behavioral patterns in children and adolescents did not differ from adult patterns, showing a similar ability for probability estimation and reward evaluation. These data suggest that participants 8 years and older perform like adults in a gambling task, previously shown to depend on the OFC in which all the information needed to make an advantageous decision is given on each trial and no information needs to be inferred from previous behavior. Interestingly, at all ages, females were more risk-averse than males. These results suggest that the increase in real-life risky behavior that is seen in adolescence is not a consequence of changes in risk perception abilities. The findings are discussed in relation to theories about the protracted development of the prefrontal cortex.

Energy in synthetic fertilizers and pesticides: Revisited. Final project report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhat, M.G.; English, B.C.; Turhollow, A.F.

1994-01-01

Agricultural chemicals that are derived from fossil-fuels are the major energy intensive inputs in agriculture. Growing scarcity of the world`s fossil resources stimulated research and development of energy-efficient technology for manufacturing these chemicals in the last decade. The purpose of this study is to revisit the energy requirements of major plant nutrients and pesticides. The data from manufacturers energy survey conducted by The Fertilizer Institute are used to estimate energy requirements of fertilizers. Energy estimates for pesticides are developed from consulting previously published literature. The impact of technical innovation in the fertilizer industry to US corn, cotton, soybean and wheatmore » producers is estimated in terms of energy-saving.« less

A history estimate and evolutionary analysis of rabies virus variants in China.

PubMed

Ming, Pinggang; Yan, Jiaxin; Rayner, Simon; Meng, Shengli; Xu, Gelin; Tang, Qing; Wu, Jie; Luo, Jing; Yang, Xiaoming

2010-03-01

To investigate the evolutionary dynamics of rabies virus (RABV) in China, we collected and sequenced 55 isolates sampled from 14 Chinese provinces over the last 40 years and performed a coalescent-based analysis of the G gene. This revealed that the RABV currently circulating in China is composed of three main groups. Bayesian coalescent analysis estimated the date of the most recent common ancestor for the current RABV Chinese strains to be 1412 (with a 95 % confidence interval of 1006-1736). The estimated mean substitution rate for the G gene sequences (3.961x10(-4) substitutions per site per year) was in accordance with previous reports for RABV.

Soil moisture dynamics and smoldering combustion limits of pocosin soils in North Carolina, USA

Treesearch

James Reardon; Gary Curcio; Roberta Bartlette

2009-01-01

Smoldering combustion of wetland organic soils in the south-eastern USA is a serious management concern. Previous studies have reported smoldering was sensitive to a wide range of moisture contents, but studies of soil moisture dynamics and changing smoldering combustion potential in wetland communities are limited. Linking soil moisture measurements with estimates of...

Market Signals: Evidence on the Determinants and Consequences of School Choice from a Citywide Lottery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glazerman, Steven; Dotter, Dallas

2017-01-01

We estimate school-choice preferences revealed by the rank-ordered lists submitted by more than 22,000 applicants to a citywide lottery for more than 200 traditional and charter public schools in Washington, D.C. The results confirm previously reported findings that commuting distance, school demographics, and academic indicators play important…

The Tax-Credit Scholarship Audit: Do Publicly Funded Private School Choice Programs Save Money?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lueken, Martin F.

2016-01-01

This report follows up on previous work that examined the fiscal effects of private school voucher programs. It estimates the total fiscal effects of tax-credit scholarship programs--another type of private school choice program--on state governments, state and local taxpayers, and school districts combined. Based on a range of assumptions, these…

Early evolution of the angiosperm clade Asteraceae in the Cretaceous of Antarctica.

PubMed

Barreda, Viviana D; Palazzesi, Luis; Tellería, Maria C; Olivero, Eduardo B; Raine, J Ian; Forest, Félix

2015-09-01

The Asteraceae (sunflowers and daisies) are the most diverse family of flowering plants. Despite their prominent role in extant terrestrial ecosystems, the early evolutionary history of this family remains poorly understood. Here we report the discovery of a number of fossil pollen grains preserved in dinosaur-bearing deposits from the Late Cretaceous of Antarctica that drastically pushes back the timing of assumed origin of the family. Reliably dated to ∼76-66 Mya, these specimens are about 20 million years older than previously known records for the Asteraceae. Using a phylogenetic approach, we interpreted these fossil specimens as members of an extinct early diverging clade of the family, associated with subfamily Barnadesioideae. Based on a molecular phylogenetic tree calibrated using fossils, including the ones reported here, we estimated that the most recent common ancestor of the family lived at least 80 Mya in Gondwana, well before the thermal and biogeographical isolation of Antarctica. Most of the early diverging lineages of the family originated in a narrow time interval after the K/P boundary, 60-50 Mya, coinciding with a pronounced climatic warming during the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene, and the scene of a dramatic rise in flowering plant diversity. Our age estimates reduce earlier discrepancies between the age of the fossil record and previous molecular estimates for the origin of the family, bearing important implications in the evolution of flowering plants in general.

Tidally driven export of dissolved organic carbon, total mercury, and methylmercury from a mangrove-dominated estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bergamaschi, B.A.; Krabbenhoft, D.P.; Aiken, G.R.; Patino, E.; Rumbold, D.G.; Orem, W.H.

2012-01-01

The flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from mangrove swamps accounts for 10% of the global terrestrial flux of DOC to coastal oceans. Recent findings of high concentrations of mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in mangroves, in conjunction with the common co-occurrence of DOC and Hg species, have raised concerns that mercury fluxes may also be large. We used a novel approach to estimate export of DOC, Hg, and MeHg to coastal waters from a mangrove-dominated estuary in Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). Using in situ measurements of fluorescent dissolved organic matter as a proxy for DOC, filtered total Hg, and filtered MeHg, we estimated the DOC yield to be 180 (??12.6) g C m -2 yr -1, which is in the range of previously reported values. Although Hg and MeHg yields from tidal mangrove swamps have not been previously measured, our estimated yields of Hg species (28 ?? 4.5 ??g total Hg m -2 yr -1 and 3.1 ?? 0.4 ??g methyl Hg m -2 yr -1) were five times greater than is typically reported for terrestrial wetlands. These results indicate that in addition to the well documented contributions of DOC, tidally driven export from mangroves represents a significant potential source of Hg and MeHg to nearby coastal waters. ?? 2011 American Chemical Society.

Tidally Driven Export of Dissolved Organic Carbon, Total Mercury, and Methylmercury from a Mangrove-Dominated Estuary

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

The flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from mangrove swamps accounts for 10% of the global terrestrial flux of DOC to coastal oceans. Recent findings of high concentrations of mercury (Hg) and methylmercury (MeHg) in mangroves, in conjunction with the common co-occurrence of DOC and Hg species, have raised concerns that mercury fluxes may also be large. We used a novel approach to estimate export of DOC, Hg, and MeHg to coastal waters from a mangrove-dominated estuary in Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). Using in situ measurements of fluorescent dissolved organic matter as a proxy for DOC, filtered total Hg, and filtered MeHg, we estimated the DOC yield to be 180 (±12.6) g C m–2 yr–1, which is in the range of previously reported values. Although Hg and MeHg yields from tidal mangrove swamps have not been previously measured, our estimated yields of Hg species (28 ± 4.5 μg total Hg m–2 yr–1 and 3.1 ± 0.4 μg methyl Hg m–2 yr–1) were five times greater than is typically reported for terrestrial wetlands. These results indicate that in addition to the well documented contributions of DOC, tidally driven export from mangroves represents a significant potential source of Hg and MeHg to nearby coastal waters. PMID:22206226

Psychometrics Matter in Health Behavior: A Long-term Reliability Generalization Study.

PubMed

Pickett, Andrew C; Valdez, Danny; Barry, Adam E

2017-09-01

Despite numerous calls for increased understanding and reporting of reliability estimates, social science research, including the field of health behavior, has been slow to respond and adopt such practices. Therefore, we offer a brief overview of reliability and common reporting errors; we then perform analyses to examine and demonstrate the variability of reliability estimates by sample and over time. Using meta-analytic reliability generalization, we examined the variability of coefficient alpha scores for a well-designed, consistent, nationwide health study, covering a span of nearly 40 years. For each year and sample, reliability varied. Furthermore, reliability was predicted by a sample characteristic that differed among age groups within each administration. We demonstrated that reliability is influenced by the methods and individuals from which a given sample is drawn. Our work echoes previous calls that psychometric properties, particularly reliability of scores, are important and must be considered and reported before drawing statistical conclusions.

Asphyxia in Motor Vehicle Crashes: Analysis of Crash-Related Variables Using National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System and Forensic Case Studies.

PubMed

Storvik, Steven G; Campbell, Julius Q; Wheeler, Jeffrey B

2017-06-01

Rates of death because of asphyxia in motor vehicle crashes have been previously estimated using county and statewide data sets, but national estimates have not been reported. The literature regarding asphyxia in motor vehicle crashes primarily involves discussions about clinical findings, and crash-related variables have been sparsely reported. The current study calculated a nationwide fatality rate for asphyxia in motor vehicle crashes of 1.4%. Seventeen case studies of asphyxia were also reported providing crash-, vehicle-, and occupant-related variables. These included type of accident, crash severity, seat belt use, containment status, extent of occupant compartment intrusion, height, weight, and injury pattern. The data presented can be used to better understand the injury mechanism, identify risk factors, develop possible protective countermeasures, and create situational awareness for emergency responders and investigators.

Menstrual Cycle Phase Does Not Predict Political Conservatism

PubMed Central

Scott, Isabel M.; Pound, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations” questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought. PMID:25923332

Menstrual cycle phase does not predict political conservatism.

PubMed

Scott, Isabel M; Pound, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Recent authors have reported a relationship between women's fertility status, as indexed by menstrual cycle phase, and conservatism in moral, social and political values. We conducted a survey to test for the existence of a relationship between menstrual cycle day and conservatism. 2213 women reporting regular menstrual cycles provided data about their political views. Of these women, 2208 provided information about their cycle date, 1260 provided additional evidence of reliability in self-reported cycle date, and of these, 750 also indicated an absence of hormonal disruptors such as recent hormonal contraception use, breastfeeding or pregnancy. Cycle day was used to estimate day-specific fertility rate (probability of conception); political conservatism was measured via direct self-report and via responses to the "Moral Foundations" questionnaire. We also recorded relationship status, which has been reported to interact with menstrual cycle phase in determining political preferences. We found no evidence of a relationship between estimated cyclical fertility changes and conservatism, and no evidence of an interaction between relationship status and cyclical fertility in determining political attitudes. Our findings were robust to multiple inclusion/exclusion criteria and to different methods of estimating fertility and measuring conservatism. In summary, the relationship between cycle-linked reproductive parameters and conservatism may be weaker or less reliable than previously thought.

HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1 allele diversity and its extended haplotypes in Madeira Island (Portugal).

PubMed

Spínola, H; Lemos, A; Couto, A R; Parreira, B; Soares, M; Dutra, I; Bruges-Armas, J; Brehm, A

2017-02-01

This study shows, for the first time, high-resolution allele frequencies of HLA-DQA1 loci in Madeira Island (Portugal) and allows us to better understand and refine present knowledge on DQB1 variation, with the identification of several alleles not previously reported in this population. Estimates on haplotype profile, involving HLA-A, HLA-B, HLA-DRB1, HLA-DQA1 and HLA-DQB1, are also reported. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Verification of otolith identity used by fisheries scientists for aging channel catfish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, James M.; Stewart, David R.

2010-01-01

Previously published studies of the age estimation of channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus based on otoliths have reported using the sagittae, whereas it is likely they were actually using the lapilli. This confusion may have resulted because in catfishes (ostariophyseans) the lapilli are the largest of the three otoliths, whereas in nonostariophysean fish the sagittae are the largest. Based on (1) scanning electron microscope microphotographs of channel catfish otoliths, (2) X-ray computed tomography scans of a channel catfish head, (3) descriptions of techniques used to removed otoliths from channel catfish reported in the literature, and (4) a sample of channel catfish otoliths received from fisheries biologists from around the country, it is clear that lapilli are most often used for channel catfish aging studies, not sagittae, as has been previously reported. Fisheries scientists who obtain otoliths from channel catfish can use the information in this paper to correctly identify otolith age.

[Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence estimated using a standard algorithm based on electronic health data in various areas of Italy].

PubMed

Faustini, Annunziata; Cascini, Silvia; Arcà, Massimo; Balzi, Daniela; Barchielli, Alessandro; Canova, Cristina; Galassi, Claudia; Migliore, Enrica; Minerba, Sante; Protti, Maria Angela; Romanelli, Anna; Tessari, Roberta; Vigotti, Maria Angela; Simonato, Lorenzo

2008-01-01

to estimate the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by integrating various administrative health information systems. prevalent COPD cases were defined as those reported in the hospital discharge registry (HDR) and cause of mortality registry (CMR) with codes 490*, 491*, 492*, 494* and 496* of the International diseases classification 9th revision. Annual prevalence was estimated in 35+ year-old residents in six Italian areas ofb different sizes, in the period 2002-2004. We included cases observed in the previous four years who were alive at the beginning of each year. in 2003, age-standardized prevalence rates varied from 1.6% in Venice to 5% in Taranto. Prevalence was higher in males and increased with age. The highest rates were observed in central (Rome) and southern (Taranto) cities, especially in the 35-64 age group. HDR contributed 91% of cases. Health-tax exemption registry would increase the prevalence estimate by 0.2% if used as a third data source. with respect to the National Health Status survey, COPD prevalence is underestimated by 1%-3%; this can partly be due to the selection of severe and exacerbated COPD by the algorithm used. However, age, gender and geographical characteristics of prevalent cases were comparable to national estimates. Including cases observed in previous years (longitudinal estimates) increased the point estimate (yearly) of prevalence two or three times in each area.

The etiology of social aggression: a nuclear twin family study.

PubMed

Slawinski, Brooke L; Klump, Kelly L; Burt, S Alexandra

2018-04-02

Social aggression is a form of antisocial behavior in which social relationships and social status are used to damage reputations and inflict emotional harm on others. Despite extensive research examining the prevalence and consequences of social aggression, only a few studies have examined its genetic-environmental etiology, with markedly inconsistent results. We estimated the etiology of social aggression using the nuclear twin family (NTF) model. Maternal-report, paternal-report, and teacher-report data were collected for twin social aggression (N = 1030 pairs). We also examined the data using the classical twin (CT) model to evaluate whether its strict assumptions may have biased previous heritability estimates. The best-fitting NTF model for all informants was the ASFE model, indicating that additive genetic, sibling environmental, familial environmental, and non-shared environmental influences significantly contribute to the etiology of social aggression in middle childhood. However, the best-fitting CT model varied across informants, ranging from AE and ACE to CE. Specific heritability estimates for both NTF and CT models also varied across informants such that teacher reports indicated greater genetic influences and father reports indicated greater shared environmental influences. Although the specific NTF parameter estimates varied across informants, social aggression generally emerged as largely additive genetic (A = 0.15-0.77) and sibling environmental (S = 0.42-0.72) in origin. Such findings not only highlight an important role for individual genetic risk in the etiology of social aggression, but also raise important questions regarding the role of the environment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shehabi, Arman; Ganeshalingam, Mohan; DeMates, Lauren

Laboratories are estimated to be 3-5 times more energy intensive than typical office buildings and offer significant opportunities for energy use reductions. Although energy intensity varies widely, laboratories are generally energy intensive due to ventilation requirements, the research instruments used, and other health and safety concerns. Because the requirements of laboratory facilities differ so dramatically from those of other buildings, a clear need exists for an initiative exclusively targeting these facilities. The building stock of laboratories in the United States span different economic sectors, include governmental and academic institution, and are often defined differently by different groups. Information on laboratorymore » buildings is often limited to a small subsection of the total building stock making aggregate estimates of the total U.S. laboratories and their energy use challenging. Previous estimates of U.S. laboratory space vary widely owing to differences in how laboratories are defined and categorized. A 2006 report on fume hoods provided an estimate of 150,000 laboratories populating the U.S. based in part on interviews of industry experts, however, a 2009 analysis of the 2003 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) generated an estimate of only 9,000 laboratory buildings. This report draws on multiple data sources that have been evaluated to construct an understanding of U.S. laboratories across different sizes and markets segments. This 2016 analysis is an update to draft reports released in October and December 2016.« less

Experience matters: neurologists' perspectives on ALS patients' well-being.

PubMed

Aho-Özhan, Helena E A; Böhm, Sarah; Keller, Jürgen; Dorst, Johannes; Uttner, Ingo; Ludolph, Albert C; Lulé, Dorothée

2017-04-01

Despite the fatal outcome and progressive loss of physical functioning in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), many patients maintain contentment in life. It has been shown that non-professionals tend to underestimate the well-being of patients with ALS, but professionals' perspective is yet to be studied. In total, 105 neurologists with varying degrees of experience with ALS were included in an anonymous survey. They were asked to estimate the quality of life and depressiveness of ALS patients with artificial ventilation and nutrition. Physicians' estimations were compared with previously reported subjective ratings of ALS patients with life-prolonging measures. Neurologists with significant experience on ALS and palliative care were able to accurately estimate depressiveness and quality of life of ALS patients with life-prolonging measures. Less experienced neurologists' estimation differed more from patients' reports. Of all life-prolonging measures neurologists regarded invasive ventilation as the measure associated with lowest quality of life and highest depressiveness of the patients. Experienced neurologists as well as neurologists with experience in palliative care are able to better empathize with patients with a fatal illness such as ALS and support important decision processes.

The rate and character of spontaneous mutation in an RNA virus.

PubMed Central

Malpica, José M; Fraile, Aurora; Moreno, Ignacio; Obies, Clara I; Drake, John W; García-Arenal, Fernando

2002-01-01

Estimates of spontaneous mutation rates for RNA viruses are few and uncertain, most notably due to their dependence on tiny mutation reporter sequences that may not well represent the whole genome. We report here an estimate of the spontaneous mutation rate of tobacco mosaic virus using an 804-base cognate mutational target, the viral MP gene that encodes the movement protein (MP). Selection against newly arising mutants was countered by providing MP function from a transgene. The estimated genomic mutation rate was on the lower side of the range previously estimated for lytic animal riboviruses. We also present the first unbiased riboviral mutational spectrum. The proportion of base substitutions is the same as that in a retrovirus but is lower than that in most DNA-based organisms. Although the MP mutant frequency was 0.02-0.05, 35% of the sequenced mutants contained two or more mutations. Therefore, the mutation process in populations of TMV and perhaps of riboviruses generally differs profoundly from that in populations of DNA-based microbes and may be strongly influenced by a subpopulation of mutator polymerases. PMID:12524327

Age, growth, and size of Lake Superior Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, Taylor; Derek Ogle,; Gorman, Owen T.; Vinson, Mark

2016-01-01

Pygmy Whitefish (Prosopium coulterii) are a small, glacial relict species with a disjunct distribution in North America and Siberia. In 2013 we collected Pygmy Whitefish at 28 stations from throughout Lake Superior. Total length was recorded for all fish and weight and sex were recorded and scales and otoliths were collected from a subsample. We compared the precision of estimated ages between readers and between scales and otoliths, estimated von Bertalanffy growth parameters for male and female Pygmy Whitefish, and reported the first weight-length relationship for Pygmy Whitefish. Age estimates between scales and otoliths differed significantly with otolith ages significantly greater for most ages after age-3. Maximum otolith age was nine for females and seven for males, which is older than previously reported for Pygmy Whitefish from Lake Superior. Growth was initially fast but slowed considerably after age-3 for males and age-4 for females, falling to 3–4 mm per year at maximum estimated ages. Females were longer than males after age-3. Our results suggest the size, age, and growth of Pygmy Whitefish in Lake Superior have not changed appreciably since 1953.

One explanatory basis for the discrepancy of reported prevalences of sleep paralysis among healthy respondents.

PubMed

Fukuda, K

1993-12-01

In a previous study, the author and coworkers found 39.8% of healthy young adults had experienced sleep paralysis. Some other studies reported prevalence as about the same or higher (i.e., 40.7% to 62.0%) than that previous estimate, while yet other studies, including Goode's work cited by ASDC and ASDA classifications, suggested much lower prevalences (i.e., 4.7% to 26.2%). The author tested the hypothesis that this discrepancy among the reported prevalences is partly due to the expression used in each questionnaire. University students who answered the questionnaire using the term 'transient paralysis' reported the lower prevalence (26.4%), while the second group of respondents who answered the questionnaire using the term kanashibari, the Japanese folklore expression for sleep paralysis, gave the higher prevalence (39.3%). The third group who answered the questionnaire with the term 'condition,' probably a rather neutral expression, marked the middle (31.0%) of these.

Alcohol, Binge Drinking and Associated Mental Health Problems in Young Urban Chileans

PubMed Central

Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Cabieses, Báltica

2015-01-01

Objective To explore the link between alcohol use, binge drinking and mental health problems in a representative sample of adolescent and young adult Chileans. Methods Age and sex-adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for four mental wellbeing measures were estimated with separate conditional logistic regression models for adolescents aged 15-20 years, and young adults aged 21-25 years, using population-based estimates of alcohol use prevalence rates from the Chilean National Health Survey 2010. Results Sixty five per cent of adolescents and 85% of young adults reported drinking alcohol in the last year and of those 83% per cent of adolescents and 86% of young adults reported binge drinking in the previous month. Adolescents who reported binging alcohol were also more likely, compared to young adults, to report being always or almost always depressed (OR 12.97 [95% CI, 1.86-19.54]) or to feel very anxious in the last month (OR 9.37 [1.77-19.54]). Adolescent females were more likely to report poor life satisfaction in the previous year than adolescent males (OR 8.50 [1.61-15.78]), feel always or almost always depressed (OR 3.41 [1.25-9.58]). Being female was also associated with a self-reported diagnosis of depression for both age groups (adolescents, OR 4.74 [1.49-15.08] and young adults, OR 4.08 [1.65-10.05]). Conclusion Young people in Chile self-report a high prevalence of alcohol use, binge drinking and associated mental health problems. The harms associated with alcohol consumption need to be highlighted through evidence-based prevention programs. Health and education systems need to be strengthened to screen and support young people. Focussing on policy initiatives to limit beverage companies targeting alcohol to young people will also be needed. PMID:25830508

Dying for work: The magnitude of US mortality from selected causes of death associated with occupation.

PubMed

Steenland, Kyle; Burnett, Carol; Lalich, Nina; Ward, Elizabeth; Hurrell, Joseph

2003-05-01

Deaths due to occupational disease and injury place a heavy burden on society in terms of economic costs and human suffering. We estimate the annual deaths due to selected diseases for which an occupational association is reasonably well established and quantifiable, by calculation of attributable fractions (AFs), with full documentation; the deaths due to occupational injury are then added to derive an estimated number of annual deaths due to occupation. Using 1997 US mortality data, the estimated annual burden of occupational disease mortality resulting from selected respiratory diseases, cancers, cardiovascular disease, chronic renal failure, and hepatitis is 49,000, with a range from 26,000 to 72,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates there are about 6,200 work-related injury deaths annually. Adding disease and injury data, we estimate that there are a total of 55,200 US deaths annually resulting from occupational disease or injury (range 32,200-78,200). Our estimate is in the range reported by previous investigators, although we have restricted ourselves more than others to only those diseases with well-established occupational etiology, biasing our estimates conservatively. The underlying assumptions and data used to generate the estimates are well documented, so our estimates may be updated as new data emerges on occupational risks and exposed populations, providing an advantage over previous studies. We estimate that occupational deaths are the 8th leading cause of death in the US, after diabetes (64,751) but ahead of suicide (30,575), and greater than the annual number of motor vehicle deaths per year (43,501). Copyright 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Analytical procedures for estimating structural response to acoustic fields generated by advanced launch systems, phase 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elishakoff, Isaac; Lin, Y. K.; Zhu, Li-Ping; Fang, Jian-Jie; Cai, G. Q.

1994-01-01

This report supplements a previous report of the same title submitted in June, 1992. It summarizes additional analytical techniques which have been developed for predicting the response of linear and nonlinear structures to noise excitations generated by large propulsion power plants. The report is divided into nine chapters. The first two deal with incomplete knowledge of boundary conditions of engineering structures. The incomplete knowledge is characterized by a convex set, and its diagnosis is formulated as a multi-hypothesis discrete decision-making algorithm with attendant criteria of adaptive termination.

A means to estimate thermal and kinetic parameters of coal dust layer from hot surface ignition tests.

PubMed

Park, Haejun; Rangwala, Ali S; Dembsey, Nicholas A

2009-08-30

A method to estimate thermal and kinetic parameters of Pittsburgh seam coal subject to thermal runaway is presented using the standard ASTM E 2021 hot surface ignition test apparatus. Parameters include thermal conductivity (k), activation energy (E), coupled term (QA) of heat of reaction (Q) and pre-exponential factor (A) which are required, but rarely known input values to determine the thermal runaway propensity of a dust material. Four different dust layer thicknesses: 6.4, 12.7, 19.1 and 25.4mm, are tested, and among them, a single steady state dust layer temperature profile of 12.7 mm thick dust layer is used to estimate k, E and QA. k is calculated by equating heat flux from the hot surface layer and heat loss rate on the boundary assuming negligible heat generation in the coal dust layer at a low hot surface temperature. E and QA are calculated by optimizing a numerically estimated steady state dust layer temperature distribution to the experimentally obtained temperature profile of a 12.7 mm thick dust layer. Two unknowns, E and QA, are reduced to one from the correlation of E and QA obtained at criticality of thermal runaway. The estimated k is 0.1 W/mK matching the previously reported value. E ranges from 61.7 to 83.1 kJ/mol, and the corresponding QA ranges from 1.7 x 10(9) to 4.8 x 10(11)J/kg s. The mean values of E (72.4 kJ/mol) and QA (2.8 x 10(10)J/kg s) are used to predict the critical hot surface temperatures for other thicknesses, and good agreement is observed between measured and experimental values. Also, the estimated E and QA ranges match the corresponding ranges calculated from the multiple tests method and values reported in previous research.

Implications of scaled δ15N fractionation for community predator-prey body mass ratio estimates in size-structured food webs.

PubMed

Reum, Jonathan C P; Jennings, Simon; Hunsicker, Mary E

2015-11-01

Nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ(15) N) may be used to estimate community-level relationships between trophic level (TL) and body size in size-structured food webs and hence the mean predator to prey body mass ratio (PPMR). In turn, PPMR is used to estimate mean food chain length, trophic transfer efficiency and rates of change in abundance with body mass (usually reported as slopes of size spectra) and to calibrate and validate food web models. When estimating TL, researchers had assumed that fractionation of δ(15) N (Δδ(15) N) did not change with TL. However, a recent meta-analysis indicated that this assumption was not as well supported by data as the assumption that Δδ(15) N scales negatively with the δ(15) N of prey. We collated existing fish community δ(15) N-body size data for the Northeast Atlantic and tropical Western Arabian Sea with new data from the Northeast Pacific. These data were used to estimate TL-body mass relationships and PPMR under constant and scaled Δδ(15) N assumptions, and to assess how the scaled Δδ(15) N assumption affects our understanding of the structure of these food webs. Adoption of the scaled Δδ(15) N approach markedly reduces the previously reported differences in TL at body mass among fish communities from different regions. With scaled Δδ(15) N, TL-body mass relationships became more positive and PPMR fell. Results implied that realized prey size in these size-structured fish communities are less variable than previously assumed and food chains potentially longer. The adoption of generic PPMR estimates for calibration and validation of size-based fish community models is better supported than hitherto assumed, but predicted slopes of community size spectra are more sensitive to a given change or error in realized PPMR when PPMR is small. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Honesty-humility in contemporary students: manipulations of self-image by inflated IQ estimations.

PubMed

Kajonius, P J

2014-08-01

The HEXACO model offers a complement to the Big Five model, including a sixth factor, Honesty-Humility, and its four facets (Sincerity, Fairness, Greed-avoidance, and Modesty). The four facets of Honesty-Humility and three indicators of intelligence (one performance-based cognitive ability test, one self-estimated academic potential, and one self-report of previous IQ test results) were assessed in students entering higher education (N = 187). A significant negative correlation was observed between Honesty-Humility and self-reported intelligence (r = -.37), most evident in the Modesty facet. These results may be interpreted as tendencies of exaggeration, using a theoretical frame of psychological image-management, concluding that the Honesty-Humility trait captures students' self-ambitions, particularly within the context of an individualistic, competitive culture such as Sweden.

Performance of Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration Creatinine-Cystatin C Equation for Estimating Kidney Function in Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Mindikoglu, Ayse L.; Dowling, Thomas C.; Weir, Matthew R.; Seliger, Stephen L.; Christenson, Robert H.; Magder, Laurence S.

2013-01-01

Conventional creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR) equations are insufficiently accurate for estimating GFR in cirrhosis. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently proposed an equation to estimate GFR in subjects without cirrhosis using both serum creatinine and cystatin C levels. Performance of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) was superior to previous creatinine- or cystatin C-based GFR equations. To evaluate the performance of the CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation in subjects with cirrhosis, we compared it to GFR measured by non-radiolabeled iothalamate plasma clearance (mGFR) in 72 subjects with cirrhosis. We compared the “bias”, “precision” and “accuracy” of the new CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation to that of 24-hour urinary creatinine clearance (CrCl), Cockcroft-Gault (CG) and previously reported creatinine- and/or cystatin C-based GFR-estimating equations. Accuracy of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation as quantified by root mean squared error of difference scores [differences between mGFR and estimated GFR (eGFR) or between mGFR and CrCl, or between mGFR and CG equation for each subject] (RMSE=23.56) was significantly better than that of CrCl (37.69, P=0.001), CG (RMSE=36.12, P=0.002) and GFR-estimating equations based on cystatin C only. Its accuracy as quantified by percentage of eGFRs that differed by greater than 30% with respect to mGFR was significantly better compared to CrCl (P=0.024), CG (P=0.0001), 4-variable MDRD (P=0.027) and CKD-EPI creatinine 2009 (P=0.012) equations. However, for 23.61% of the subjects, GFR estimated by CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation differed from the mGFR by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS The diagnostic performance of CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equation (2012) in patients with cirrhosis was superior to conventional equations in clinical practice for estimating GFR. However, its diagnostic performance was substantially worse than reported in subjects without cirrhosis. PMID:23744636

Wake Vortex Advisory System (WakeVAS) Evaluation of Impacts on the National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

2005-01-01

This report is one of a series that describes an ongoing effort in high-fidelity modeling/simulation, evaluation and analysis of the benefits and performance metrics of the Wake Vortex Advisory System (WakeVAS) Concept of Operations being developed as part of the Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) project. A previous study, determined the overall increases in runway arrival rates that could be achieved at 12 selected airports due to WakeVAS reduced aircraft spacing under Instrument Meteorological Conditions. This study builds on the previous work to evaluate the NAS wide impacts of equipping various numbers of airports with WakeVAS. A queuing network model of the National Airspace System, built by the Logistics Management Institute, Mclean, VA, for NASA (LMINET) was used to estimate the reduction in delay that could be achieved by using WakeVAS under non-visual meteorological conditions for the projected air traffic demand in 2010. The results from LMINET were used to estimate the total annual delay reduction that could be achieved and from this, an estimate of the air carrier variable operating cost saving was made.

[Double mutant alleles in the EXT1 gene not previously reported in a teenager with hereditary multiple exostoses].

PubMed

Cammarata-Scalisi, Francisco; Cozar, Mónica; Grinberg, Daniel; Balcells, Susana; Asteggiano, Carla G; Martínez-Domenech, Gustavo; Bracho, Ana; Sánchez, Yanira; Stock, Frances; Delgado-Luengo, Wilmer; Zara-Chirinos, Carmen; Chacín, José Antonio

2015-04-01

Hereditary forms of multiple exostoses, now called EXT1/EXT2-CDG within Congenital Disorders of Glycosylation, are the most common benign bone tumors in humans and clinical description consists of the formation of several cartilage-capped bone tumors, usually benign and localized in the juxta-epiphyseal region of long bones, although wide body dissemination in severe cases is not uncommon. Onset of the disease is variable ranging from 2-3 years up to 13-15 years with an estimated incidence ranging from 1/18,000 to 1/50,000 cases in European countries. We present a double mutant alleles in the EXT1 gene not previously reported in a teenager and her family with hereditary multiple exostoses.

Validity of self-reported lunch recalls in Swedish school children aged 6-8 years.

PubMed

Hunsberger, Monica; Pena, Pablo; Lissner, Lauren; Grafström, Lisen; Vanaelst, Barbara; Börnhorst, Claudia; Pala, Valeria; Eiben, Gabriele

2013-09-18

Previous studies have suggested that young children are inaccurate reporters of dietary intake. The purpose of this study was to validate a single recall of the previous day's school lunch reported by 6-8 year old Swedish children and to assess teacher-recorded intake of the same meal in a standardized food journal. An additional research question was whether parents could report their child's intake of the previous day's lunch. Subjects constituted a convenience sample from the large, multi-country study Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS (IDEFICS). Validations of both children's recalls and teachers' records were made by comparing results with the duplicate plate reference method. Twenty-five children (12 boys/13 girls) aged 6-8 years participated in the validation study at one school in western Sweden. Children were accurate self-reporters of their dietary intake at lunch, with no significant difference between reported and weighed intake (Mean difference (SD): 7(50) kcals, p=0.49). Teachers significantly over-reported intake (Mean difference (SD): 65(79) kcals, p=0.01). For both methods, child-reported and teacher-recorded, correlations with weighed intake were strong (Pearson's correlations r=0.92, p<0.001 and r=0.83, p<0.001 respectively). Bland-Altman plots showed strong agreement between child-reported and weighed intakes but confirmed systematic differences between teacher-records and weighed intakes. Foods were recalled by children with a food-match rate of 90%. In all cases parents themselves were unable to report on quantities consumed and only four of 25 children had parents with knowledge regarding food items consumed. Children 6-8 years of age accurately recalled their school lunch intake for one occasion while teachers recorded with less accuracy. Our findings suggest that children as young as six years of age may be better able to report on their dietary intake than previously suggested, at least for one main meal at school. Teacher-recorded intake provides a satisfactory estimate but with greater systematic deviation from the weighed intake. Parents were not able to report on their children's school lunches consumed on the previous day.

Ka-Band Wide-Bandgap Solid-State Power Amplifier: Hardware Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epp, L.; Khan, P.; Silva, A.

2005-01-01

Motivated by recent advances in wide-bandgap (WBG) gallium nitride (GaN) semiconductor technology, there is considerable interest in developing efficient solid-state power amplifiers (SSPAs) as an alternative to the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA) for space applications. This article documents proof-of-concept hardware used to validate power-combining technologies that may enable a 120-W, 40 percent power-added efficiency (PAE) SSPA. Results in previous articles [1-3] indicate that architectures based on at least three power combiner designs are likely to enable the target SSPA. Previous architecture performance analyses and estimates indicate that the proposed architectures can power combine 16 to 32 individual monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMICs) with >80 percent combining efficiency. This combining efficiency would correspond to MMIC requirements of 5- to 10-W output power and >48 percent PAE. In order to validate the performance estimates of the three proposed architectures, measurements of proof-of-concept hardware are reported here.

Modelling the effect on injuries and fatalities when changing mode of transport from car to bicycle.

PubMed

Nilsson, Philip; Stigson, Helena; Ohlin, Maria; Strandroth, Johan

2017-03-01

Several studies have estimated the health effects of active commuting, where a transport mode shift from car to bicycle reduces risk of mortality and morbidity. Previous studies mainly assess the negative aspects of bicycling by referring to fatalities or police reported injuries. However, most bicycle crashes are not reported by the police and therefore hospital reported data would cover a much higher rate of injuries from bicycle crashes. The aim of the present study was to estimate the effect on injuries and fatalities from traffic crashes when shifting mode of transport from car to bicycle by using hospital reported data. This present study models the change in number of injuries and fatalities due to a transport mode change using a given flow change from car to bicycle and current injury and fatality risk per distance for bicyclists and car occupants. show that bicyclists have a much higher injury risk (29 times) and fatality risk (10 times) than car occupants. In a scenario where car occupants in Stockholm living close to their work place shifts transport mode to bicycling, injuries, fatalities and health loss expressed in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) were estimated to increase. The vast majority of the estimated DALY increase was caused by severe injuries and fatalities and it tends to fluctuate so that the number of severe crashes may exceed the estimation with a large margin. Although the estimated increase of traffic crashes and DALY, a transport mode shift is seen as a way towards a more sustainable society. Thus, this present study highlights the need of strategic preventive measures in order to minimize the negative impacts from increased bicycling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Serum proteins by capillary zone electrophoresis: approaches to the definition of reference values.

PubMed

Petrini, C; Alessio, M G; Scapellato, L; Brambilla, S; Franzini, C

1999-10-01

The Paragon CZE 2000 (Beckman Analytical, Milan, Italy) is an automatic dedicated capillary zone electrophoresis (CZE) system, producing a five-zone serum protein pattern with quantitative estimation of the zones. With the view of substituting this instrument for two previously used serum protein electrophoresis techniques, we planned to produce reference values for the "new" systems leading to compatible interpretation of the results. High resolution cellulose acetate electrophoresis with visual inspection and descriptive reporting (HR-CAE) and five-zone cellulose acetate electrophoresis with densitometry (CAE-D) were the previously used techniques. Serum samples (n = 167) giving "normal pattern" with HR-CAE were assayed with the CZE system, and the results were statistically assessed to yield 0.95 reference intervals. One thousand normal and pathological serum samples were then assayed with the CAE-D and the CZE techniques, and the regression equations of the CAE-D values over the CZE values for the five zones were used to transform the CAE-D reference limits into the CZE reference limits. The two sets of reference values thereby produced were in good agreement with each other and also with reference values previously reported for the CZE system. Thus, reference values for the CZE techniques permit interpretation of results coherent with the previously used techniques and reporting modes.

Performance of a Deep-Learning Neural Network Model in Assessing Skeletal Maturity on Pediatric Hand Radiographs.

PubMed

Larson, David B; Chen, Matthew C; Lungren, Matthew P; Halabi, Safwan S; Stence, Nicholas V; Langlotz, Curtis P

2018-04-01

Purpose To compare the performance of a deep-learning bone age assessment model based on hand radiographs with that of expert radiologists and that of existing automated models. Materials and Methods The institutional review board approved the study. A total of 14 036 clinical hand radiographs and corresponding reports were obtained from two children's hospitals to train and validate the model. For the first test set, composed of 200 examinations, the mean of bone age estimates from the clinical report and three additional human reviewers was used as the reference standard. Overall model performance was assessed by comparing the root mean square (RMS) and mean absolute difference (MAD) between the model estimates and the reference standard bone ages. Ninety-five percent limits of agreement were calculated in a pairwise fashion for all reviewers and the model. The RMS of a second test set composed of 913 examinations from the publicly available Digital Hand Atlas was compared with published reports of an existing automated model. Results The mean difference between bone age estimates of the model and of the reviewers was 0 years, with a mean RMS and MAD of 0.63 and 0.50 years, respectively. The estimates of the model, the clinical report, and the three reviewers were within the 95% limits of agreement. RMS for the Digital Hand Atlas data set was 0.73 years, compared with 0.61 years of a previously reported model. Conclusion A deep-learning convolutional neural network model can estimate skeletal maturity with accuracy similar to that of an expert radiologist and to that of existing automated models. © RSNA, 2017 An earlier incorrect version of this article appeared online. This article was corrected on January 19, 2018.

A reevaluation of cancer incidence near the Three Mile Island nuclear plant: the collision of evidence and assumptions.

PubMed

Wing, S; Richardson, D; Armstrong, D; Crawford-Brown, D

1997-01-01

Previous studies concluded that there was no evidence that the 1979 nuclear accident at Three Mile Island (TMI) affected cancer incidence in the surrounding area; however, there were logical and methodological problems in earlier reports that led us to reconsider data previously collected. A 10-mile area around TMI was divided into 69 study tracts, which were assigned radiation dose estimates based on radiation reading and models of atmospheric dispersion. Incident cancers from 1975 to 1985 were ascertained from hospital records and assigned to study tracts. Associations between accident doses and incidence rates of leukemia, lung cancer, and all cancer were assessed using relative dose estimates calculated by the earlier investigators. Adjustments were made for age, sex, socioeconomic characteristics, and preaccident variation in incidence. Considering a 2-year latency, the estimated percent increase per dose unit +/- standard error was 0.020 +/- 0.012 for all cancer, 0.082 +/- 0.032 for lung cancer, and 0.116 +/- 0.067 for leukemia. Adjustment for socioeconomic variables increased the estimates to 0.034 +/- 0.013, 0.103 +/- 0.035, and 0.139 +/- 0.073 for all cancer, lung cancer, and leukemia, respectively. Associations were generally larger considering a 5-year latency, but were based on smaller numbers of cases. Results support the hypothesis that radiation doses are related to increased cancer incidence around TMI. The analysis avoids medical detection bias, but suffers from inaccurate dose classification; therefore, results may underestimate the magnitude of the association between radiation and cancer incidence. These associations would not be expected, based on previous estimates of near-background levels of radiation exposure following the accident.

The Development and Validation of a Bilingual Version of the Vocabulary Size Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karami, Hossein

2012-01-01

This paper reports an attempt to develop and validate a bilingual Persian version of the Vocabulary Size Test (VST). Due to the particular educational system in Iran, there is a dire need for a test that can effectively estimate English learners' vocabulary sizes. Previous research (Nguyen and Nation, 2011) has indicated that bilingual versions of…

Litter carbon stocks in forests of the US are markedly smaller than previously reported

Treesearch

Grant Domke; Charles Perry; Brian Walters; Christopher Woodall; Matthew Russell; James Smith

2015-01-01

Forest ecosystems are the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth with more than half of their net primary production moving to the soil via the decomposition of litter biomass. Therefore, changes in the litter carbon pool have important implications for global carbon budgets and carbon emissions reduction targets and negotiations. Litter accounts for an estimated 5...

Understanding Thermal Transport in Graded, Layered and Hybrid Materials

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-01

interfacial chemistries, including metallic and carbide layers, and; (iv) mimic the observed interface structure on a TDTR specimen by manipulating the...surface carbides , which were extracted from several different composites via acid dissolution of Cu, continued throughout the last 12 months of the...effort. The previously-reported electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) based techniques were employed to estimate the interfacial carbide layer thickness

On the Importance of Reliable Covariate Measurement in Selection Bias Adjustments Using Propensity Scores

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Peter M.; Cook, Thomas D.; Shadish, William R.

2011-01-01

The effect of unreliability of measurement on propensity score (PS) adjusted treatment effects has not been previously studied. The authors report on a study simulating different degrees of unreliability in the multiple covariates that were used to estimate the PS. The simulation uses the same data as two prior studies. Shadish, Clark, and Steiner…

Timber resource statistics for the Tanana inventory unit, Alaska, 1971-75.

Treesearch

Willem W.S. Van Hees

1984-01-01

Statistics on forest area, total gross and net timber volumes, and annual net growth and mortality are presented for the 1971-75 timber inventory of the Tanana unit, Alaska. This report summarizes statistics previously published for the four inventory blocks of the unit: Fairbanks, Kantishna, Upper Tanana, and Wood-Salcha. Timberland area is estimated at 2.19 million...

The economic impact of NASA R and D spending Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, M. K.

1976-01-01

Seven appendices related to a previous report on the economic impact of NASA R and D spending were presented. They dealt with: (1) theoretical and empirical development of aggregate production functions, (2) the calculation of the time series for the rate of technological progress, (3) the calculation of the industry mix variable, (4) the estimation of distributed lags, (5) the estimation of the equations for gamma, (6) a ten-year forecast of the U.S. economy, (7) simulations of the macroeconomic model for increases in NASA R and D spending of $1.0, $.0.5, and 0.1 billions.

Uranium distribution and 'excessive' U-He ages in iron meteoritic troilite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, D. E.

1985-01-01

Fission tracking techniques were used to measure the uranium distribution in meteoritic troilite and graphite. The obtained fission tracking data showed a heterogeneous distribution of tracks with a significant portion of track density present in the form of uranium clusters at least 10 microns in size. The matrix containing the clusters was also heterogeneous in composition with U concentrations of about 0.2-4.7 ppb. U/He ages could not be estimated on the basis of the heterogeneous U distributions, so previously reported estimates of U/He ages in the presolar range are probably invalid.

Stability of the MCMI-III in a substance-abusing inpatient sample.

PubMed

Craig, R J; Olson, R

1998-12-01

The stability of the MCMI-III personality disorder and clinical syndrome scales was assessed in a substance-abusing inpatient sample of 35 African-American men over an average test-retest interval of 6 mo. Estimates were higher for the personality pattern scales than for the clinical syndrome scales. The Dependent personality pattern scale (.83) and the Narcissistic personality pattern scale (.80) were reliable after about six months, whereas Drug Abuse, Somatoform, and Major Depression showed lower stability. As in previous research using the MCMI-I/II, estimates were lower than those reported in the test manual.

Dynamic estimator for determining operating conditions in an internal combustion engine

DOEpatents

Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

2016-01-05

Methods and systems are provided for estimating engine performance information for a combustion cycle of an internal combustion engine. Estimated performance information for a previous combustion cycle is retrieved from memory. The estimated performance information includes an estimated value of at least one engine performance variable. Actuator settings applied to engine actuators are also received. The performance information for the current combustion cycle is then estimated based, at least in part, on the estimated performance information for the previous combustion cycle and the actuator settings applied during the previous combustion cycle. The estimated performance information for the current combustion cycle is then stored to the memory to be used in estimating performance information for a subsequent combustion cycle.

Both vision-for-perception and vision-for-action follow Weber's law at small object sizes, but violate it at larger sizes.

PubMed

Bruno, Nicola; Uccelli, Stefano; Viviani, Eva; de'Sperati, Claudio

2016-10-01

According to a previous report, the visual coding of size does not obey Weber's law when aimed at guiding a grasp (Ganel et al., 2008a). This result has been interpreted as evidence for a fundamental difference between sensory processing in vision-for-perception, which needs to compress a wide range of physical objects to a restricted range of percepts, and vision-for-action when applied to the much narrower range of graspable and reachable objects. We compared finger aperture in a motor task (precision grip) and perceptual task (cross modal matching or "manual estimation" of the object's size). Crucially, we tested the whole range of graspable objects. We report that both grips and estimations clearly violate Weber's law with medium-to-large objects, but are essentially consistent with Weber's law with smaller objects. These results differ from previous characterizations of perception-action dissociations in the precision of representations of object size. Implications for current functional interpretations of the dorsal and ventral processing streams in the human visual system are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Flood-frequency characteristics of Wisconsin streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Peppler, Marie C.; Danz, Mari E.; Hubbard, Laura E.

2017-05-22

Flood-frequency characteristics for 360 gaged sites on unregulated rural streams in Wisconsin are presented for percent annual exceedance probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 50 using a statewide skewness map developed for this report. Equations of the relations between flood-frequency and drainage-basin characteristics were developed by multiple-regression analyses. Flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites on unregulated, rural streams can be estimated by use of the equations presented in this report. The State was divided into eight areas of similar physiographic characteristics. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, main-channel slope, and several land-use variables. The standard error of prediction for the equation for the 1-percent annual exceedance probability flood ranges from 56 to 70 percent for Wisconsin Streams; these values are larger than results presented in previous reports. The increase in the standard error of prediction is likely due to increased variability of the annual-peak discharges, resulting in increased variability in the magnitude of flood peaks at higher frequencies. For each of the unregulated rural streamflow-gaging stations, a weighted estimate based on the at-site log Pearson type III analysis and the multiple regression results was determined. The weighted estimate generally has a lower uncertainty than either the Log Pearson type III or multiple regression estimates. For regulated streams, a graphical method for estimating flood-frequency characteristics was developed from the relations of discharge and drainage area for selected annual exceedance probabilities. Graphs for the major regulated streams in Wisconsin are presented in the report.

Retention of Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis 2008-2013.

PubMed

Fox, Matthew P; Rosen, Sydney

2015-05-01

We previously published systematic reviews of retention in care after antiretroviral therapy initiation among general adult populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated 36-month retention at 73% for publications from 2007 to 2010. This report extends the review to cover 2008-2013 and expands it to all low- and middle-income countries. We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013, and abstracts from AIDS and IAS from 2008-2013. We estimated retention across cohorts using simple averages and interpolated missing times through the last time reported. We estimated all-cause attrition (death, loss to follow-up) for patients receiving first-line antiretroviral therapy in routine settings in low- and middle-income countries. We found 123 articles and abstracts reporting retention for 154 patient cohorts and 1,554,773 patients in 42 countries. Overall, 43% of all patients not retained were known to have died. Unweighted averages of reported retention were 78%, 71%, and 69% at 12, 24, and 36 months, after treatment initiation, respectively. We estimated 36-month retention at 65% in Africa, 80% in Asia, and 64% in Latin America and the Caribbean. From lifetable analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months at 83%, 74%, 68%, 64%, and 60%, respectively. Retention at 36 months on treatment averages 65%-70%. There are several important gaps in the evidence base, which could be filled by further research, especially in terms of geographic coverage and duration of follow-up.

He said, she said: The gender wage gap according to self and proxy reports in the Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Reynolds, Jeremy; Wenger, Jeffrey B

2012-03-01

Roughly half the labor force data in the Current Population Survey (CPS) are provided by proxy respondents, and since 1979, men's reliance on proxies has dropped dramatically while women's reliance on proxies has increased. Few authors, however, have examined how combining these first-hand and second-hand reports may influence our understanding of long-term economic trends. We exploit the outgoing rotation group structure of the CPS by matching individual records one year apart, and we find that self-reported wages are higher than proxy-reported wages even after controlling for all time invariant characteristics. Furthermore, we find that changes in the use of proxy respondents by men and women since 1979 have made current estimates of the gender wage gap larger than they would have been without changes in reporting status. This suggests that the gender wage gap has closed more than previously estimated. We recommend that researchers combine self and proxy responses with great care, especially when analyzing time trends or making gender comparisons. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of contraception among women who request first trimester pregnancy termination in Norway.

PubMed

Strøm-Roum, Ellen Marie; Lid, Julie; Eskild, Anne

2016-08-01

Among women requesting pregnancy termination, we studied the proportion of women who reported having used contraception when they became pregnant and the contraceptive method that they had used. We included all requests for pregnancy termination in Norway during the years 2007-2011 (n=80,346) by obtaining information from the Norwegian Registry of Pregnancy Termination. By using a logistic regression model, we estimated odds ratios for using any contraceptive method associated with the woman's age, previous childbirth, previous pregnancy termination, marital status, employment status and educational level. In total, 36.5% of the women who requested pregnancy termination (29,305/80,346) reported having used contraception when they became pregnant. Of all women, 16.6% reported having used the combined contraceptive pill/progestin pill, 11.5% the condom and 1.1% long-acting reversible contraceptives (1.0% intrauterine contraception). Overall, 38.9% of women 20-24years old had used contraception, compared to 29.9% of women 40-44years old (odds ratio 0.55, 95% confidence interval 0.51-0.60). Previous childbirth, previous pregnancy termination and high educational level were also associated with contraceptive use. Among women who requested pregnancy termination in Norway, 36.5% reported having used contraception when they became pregnant. Contraception use was associated with young age and having previously been pregnant. A large proportion of women who request pregnancy termination have experienced contraceptive failure. Women who are fertile and do not wish to become pregnant should be offered a contraceptive method that carries low risk of incorrect use. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting winter survival of female mallards in the lower Mississippi alluvial valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, B.E.; Afton, A.D.; Cox, R.R.

2011-01-01

The lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley (hereafter LMAV) provides winter habitat for approximately 40% of the Mississippi Flyway's Mallard (Anas platyrhynhcos) population; information on winter survival rates of female Mallards in the LMAV is restricted to data collected prior to implementation of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. To estimate recent survival and cause-specific mortality rates in the LMAV, 174 radio-marked female Mallards were tracked for a total of 11,912 exposure days. Survival varied by time periods defined by hunting seasons, and females with lower body condition (size adjusted body mass) at time of capture had reduced probability of survival. Female survival was less and the duration of our tracking period was greater than those in previous studies of similarly marked females in the LMAV; the product-limit survival estimate (??????SE) through the entire tracking period (136 days) was 0.54 ??0.10. Cause-specific mortality rates were 0.18 ??0.04 and 0.34 ??0.12 for hunting and other sources of mortality, respectively; the estimated mortality rate from other sources (including those from avian, mammalian, or unknown sources) was higher than mortality from non-hunting sources reported in previous studies of Mallards in the LMAV. Models that incorporate winter survival estimates as a factor in Mallard population growth rates should be adjusted for these reduced winter survival estimates.

Spatial Topography of Individual-Specific Cortical Networks Predicts Human Cognition, Personality, and Emotion.

PubMed

Kong, Ru; Li, Jingwei; Orban, Csaba; Sabuncu, Mert R; Liu, Hesheng; Schaefer, Alexander; Sun, Nanbo; Zuo, Xi-Nian; Holmes, Avram J; Eickhoff, Simon B; Yeo, B T Thomas

2018-06-06

Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) offers the opportunity to delineate individual-specific brain networks. A major question is whether individual-specific network topography (i.e., location and spatial arrangement) is behaviorally relevant. Here, we propose a multi-session hierarchical Bayesian model (MS-HBM) for estimating individual-specific cortical networks and investigate whether individual-specific network topography can predict human behavior. The multiple layers of the MS-HBM explicitly differentiate intra-subject (within-subject) from inter-subject (between-subject) network variability. By ignoring intra-subject variability, previous network mappings might confuse intra-subject variability for inter-subject differences. Compared with other approaches, MS-HBM parcellations generalized better to new rs-fMRI and task-fMRI data from the same subjects. More specifically, MS-HBM parcellations estimated from a single rs-fMRI session (10 min) showed comparable generalizability as parcellations estimated by 2 state-of-the-art methods using 5 sessions (50 min). We also showed that behavioral phenotypes across cognition, personality, and emotion could be predicted by individual-specific network topography with modest accuracy, comparable to previous reports predicting phenotypes based on connectivity strength. Network topography estimated by MS-HBM was more effective for behavioral prediction than network size, as well as network topography estimated by other parcellation approaches. Thus, similar to connectivity strength, individual-specific network topography might also serve as a fingerprint of human behavior.

Immediate estimation of correlation energy for molecular systems from the partial charges on atoms in the molecule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristyán, Sándor

1997-11-01

In the author's previous work (Chem. Phys. Lett. 247 (1995) 101 and Chem. Phys. Lett. 256 (1996) 229) a simple quasi-linear relationship was introduced between the number of electrons, N, participating in any molecular system and the correlation energy: -0.035 ( N - 1) > Ecorr[hartree] > - 0.045( N -1). This relationship was developed to estimate more accurately correlation energy immediately in ab initio calculations by using the partial charges of atoms in the molecule, easily obtained after Hartree-Fock self-consistent field (HF-SCF) calculations. The method is compared to the well-known B3LYP, MP2, CCSD and G2M methods. Correlation energy estimations for negatively (-1) charged atomic ions are also reported.

Duration analysis using matching pursuit algorithm reveals longer bouts of gamma rhythm.

PubMed

Chandran Ks, Subhash; Seelamantula, Chandra Sekhar; Ray, Supratim

2018-03-01

The gamma rhythm (30-80 Hz), often associated with high-level cortical functions, is believed to provide a temporal reference frame for spiking activity, for which it should have a stable center frequency and linear phase for an extended duration. However, recent studies that have estimated the power and phase of gamma as a function of time suggest that gamma occurs in short bursts and lacks the temporal structure required to act as a reference frame. Here, we show that the bursty appearance of gamma arises from the variability in the spectral estimator used in these studies. To overcome this problem, we use another duration estimator based on a matching pursuit algorithm that robustly estimates the duration of gamma in simulated data. Applying this algorithm to gamma oscillations recorded from implanted microelectrodes in the primary visual cortex of awake monkeys, we show that the median gamma duration is greater than 300 ms, which is three times longer than previously reported values. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Gamma oscillations (30-80 Hz) have been hypothesized to provide a temporal reference frame for coordination of spiking activity, but recent studies have shown that gamma occurs in very short bursts. We show that existing techniques have severely underestimated the rhythm duration, use a technique based on the Matching Pursuit algorithm, which provides a robust estimate of the duration, and show that the median duration of gamma is greater than 300 ms, much longer than previous estimates.

Correlation of S-Band Weather Radar Reflectivity and ACTS Propagation Data in Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolfe, Eric E.; Flikkema, Paul G.; Henning, Rudolf E.

1997-01-01

Previous work has shown that Ka-band attenuation due to rainfall and corresponding S-band reflectivity are highly correlated. This paper reports on work whose goal is to determine the feasibility of estimation and, by extension, prediction of one parameter from the other using the Florida ACTS propagation terminal (APT) and the nearby WSR-88D S-band Doppler weather radar facility operated by the National Weather Service. This work is distinguished from previous efforts in this area by (1) the use of a single-polarized radar, preventing estimation of the drop size distribution (e.g., with dual polarization) and (2) the fact that the radar and APT sites are not co-located. Our approach consists of locating the radar volume elements along the satellite slant path and then, from measured reflectivity, estimating the specific attenuation for each associated path segment. The sum of these contributions yields an estimation of the millimeter-wave attenuation on the space-ground link. Seven days of data from both systems are analyzed using this procedure. The results indicate that definite correlation of S-band reflectivity and Ka-band attenuation exists even under the restriciton of this experiment. Based on these results, it appears possible to estimate Ka-band attenuation using widely available operational weather radar data. Conversely, it may be possible to augment current radar reflectivity data and coverage with low-cost attenuation or sky temperature data to improve the estimation of rain rates.

Duration analysis using matching pursuit algorithm reveals longer bouts of gamma rhythm

PubMed Central

Chandran KS, Subhash; Seelamantula, Chandra Sekhar

2018-01-01

The gamma rhythm (30–80 Hz), often associated with high-level cortical functions, is believed to provide a temporal reference frame for spiking activity, for which it should have a stable center frequency and linear phase for an extended duration. However, recent studies that have estimated the power and phase of gamma as a function of time suggest that gamma occurs in short bursts and lacks the temporal structure required to act as a reference frame. Here, we show that the bursty appearance of gamma arises from the variability in the spectral estimator used in these studies. To overcome this problem, we use another duration estimator based on a matching pursuit algorithm that robustly estimates the duration of gamma in simulated data. Applying this algorithm to gamma oscillations recorded from implanted microelectrodes in the primary visual cortex of awake monkeys, we show that the median gamma duration is greater than 300 ms, which is three times longer than previously reported values. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Gamma oscillations (30–80 Hz) have been hypothesized to provide a temporal reference frame for coordination of spiking activity, but recent studies have shown that gamma occurs in very short bursts. We show that existing techniques have severely underestimated the rhythm duration, use a technique based on the Matching Pursuit algorithm, which provides a robust estimate of the duration, and show that the median duration of gamma is greater than 300 ms, much longer than previous estimates. PMID:29118193

Falls and Fall-Related Injuries among Community-Dwelling Adults in the United States

PubMed Central

Verma, Santosh K.; Willetts, Joanna L.; Corns, Helen L.; Marucci-Wellman, Helen R.; Lombardi, David A.; Courtney, Theodore K.

2016-01-01

Introduction Falls are the leading cause of unintentional injuries in the U.S.; however, national estimates for all community-dwelling adults are lacking. This study estimated the national incidence of falls and fall-related injuries among community-dwelling U.S. adults by age and gender and the trends in fall-related injuries across the adult life span. Methods Nationally representative data from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2008 Balance and Dizziness supplement was used to develop national estimates of falls, and pooled data from the NHIS was used to calculate estimates of fall-related injuries in the U.S. and related trends from 2004–2013. Costs of unintentional fall-related injuries were extracted from the CDC’s Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System. Results Twelve percent of community-dwelling U.S. adults reported falling in the previous year for a total estimate of 80 million falls at a rate of 37.2 falls per 100 person-years. On average, 9.9 million fall-related injuries occurred each year with a rate of 4.38 fall-related injuries per 100 person-years. In the previous three months, 2.0% of older adults (65+), 1.1% of middle-aged adults (45–64) and 0.7% of young adults (18–44) reported a fall-related injury. Of all fall-related injuries among community-dwelling adults, 32.3% occurred among older adults, 35.3% among middle-aged adults and 32.3% among younger adults. The age-adjusted rate of fall-related injuries increased 4% per year among older women (95% CI 1%–7%) from 2004 to 2013. Among U.S. adults, the total lifetime cost of annual unintentional fall-related injuries that resulted in a fatality, hospitalization or treatment in an emergency department was 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2010. Conclusions Falls and fall-related injuries represent a significant health and safety problem for adults of all ages. The findings suggest that adult fall prevention efforts should consider the entire adult lifespan to ensure a greater public health benefit. PMID:26977599

Tip of the Iceberg: Reporting and Gender-Based Violence in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Palermo, Tia; Bleck, Jennifer; Peterman, Amber

2014-01-01

Gender-based violence (GBV) is widespread globally and has myriad adverse health effects but is vastly underreported. Few studies address the extent of reporting bias in existing estimates. We provide bounds for underestimation of reporting of GBV to formal and informal sources conditional on having experienced GBV and characterize differences between women who report and those who do not. We analyzed Demographic and Health Survey data from 284,281 women in 24 countries collected between 2004 and 2011. We performed descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regressions examining characteristics associated with reporting to formal sources. Forty percent of women experiencing GBV previously disclosed to someone; however, only 7% reported to a formal source (regional variation, 2% in India and East Asia to 14% in Latin America and the Caribbean). Formerly married and never married status, urban residence, and increasing age were characteristics associated with increased likelihood of formal reporting. Our results imply that estimates of GBV prevalence based on health systems data or on police reports may underestimate the total prevalence of GBV, ranging from 11- to 128-fold, depending on the region and type of reporting. In addition, women who report GBV differ from those who do not, with implications for program targeting and design of interventions. PMID:24335278

Accuracy of gestational age estimated by menstrual dating in women seeking abortion beyond nine weeks.

PubMed

Norman, Wendy V; Bergunder, Jeannette; Eccles, Lisa

2011-03-01

We sought to quantify the accuracy of estimating gestational age by reported last menstrual period among women seeking surgical abortion. We observed that women seeking surgical abortion underestimated their gestational age when making the appointment, leading to poor allocation of resources. This tendency to underestimate has not previously been reported and differs from the accurate dating reported among women choosing either medical abortion or continuation of the pregnancy. We performed a retrospective review of randomly selected medical records for women with abortions scheduled at 9 to 20 weeks' gestation (n = 415) at two clinics in Vancouver between 2002 and 2008. The mean gestational age calculated by menstrual dates (14.3, SD 3.9) was 1.2 (95% CI 0.9 to 1.4) weeks less than that calculated by ultrasound (15.5, SD 3.4) (P < 0.001). Greater gestational age was associated with a larger discrepancy (r = 0.192, P < 0.001). Variables other than gestational age (maternal age, parity, previous abortions, illicit drug use, and contraceptive method at conception) were not significant predictors of inaccurate menstrual dating. Women seeking surgical abortion for pregnancies of 9 to 20 weeks underreport gestational age by an average of 1.2 weeks using menstrual dating. We found that women who intended to continue with their pregnancy overestimated their gestational age, those seeking very early abortion estimated most accurately, and those seeking surgical abortion at more than nine weeks had a clinically significant underestimation of their gestational age. Clinicians referring and counselling women who are considering surgical abortion must facilitate timely access to clinical or ultrasound dating of their pregnancy.

Sizing up arthropod genomes: an evaluation of the impact of environmental variation on genome size estimates by flow cytometry and the use of qPCR as a method of estimation.

PubMed

Gregory, T Ryan; Nathwani, Paula; Bonnett, Tiffany R; Huber, Dezene P W

2013-09-01

A study was undertaken to evaluate both a pre-existing method and a newly proposed approach for the estimation of nuclear genome sizes in arthropods. First, concerns regarding the reliability of the well-established method of flow cytometry relating to impacts of rearing conditions on genome size estimates were examined. Contrary to previous reports, a more carefully controlled test found negligible environmental effects on genome size estimates in the fly Drosophila melanogaster. Second, a more recently touted method based on quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was examined in terms of ease of use, efficiency, and (most importantly) accuracy using four test species: the flies Drosophila melanogaster and Musca domestica and the beetles Tribolium castaneum and Dendroctonus ponderosa. The results of this analysis demonstrated that qPCR has the tendency to produce substantially different genome size estimates from other established techniques while also being far less efficient than existing methods.

The effect of concurrent hand movement on estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task.

PubMed

Zheng, Ran; Maraj, Brian K V

2018-04-27

In many activities, we need to predict the arrival of an occluded object. This action is called prediction motion or motion extrapolation. Previous researchers have found that both eye tracking and the internal clocking model are involved in the prediction motion task. Additionally, it is reported that concurrent hand movement facilitates the eye tracking of an externally generated target in a tracking task, even if the target is occluded. The present study examined the effect of concurrent hand movement on the estimated time to contact in a prediction motion task. We found different (accurate/inaccurate) concurrent hand movements had the opposite effect on the eye tracking accuracy and estimated TTC in the prediction motion task. That is, the accurate concurrent hand tracking enhanced eye tracking accuracy and had the trend to increase the precision of estimated TTC, but the inaccurate concurrent hand tracking decreased eye tracking accuracy and disrupted estimated TTC. However, eye tracking accuracy does not determine the precision of estimated TTC.

Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

PubMed

Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

2015-01-01

Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used together to describe the relationship between time trees and a set of fossil data, which we recommend be phylogenetically vetted and referred on the basis of apomorphy. Differences from previously proposed metrics and the utility of MDI and DIG range are illustrated in three empirical case studies from angiosperms, ostracods, and birds. These case studies also illustrate the ways in which MDI and DIG range may be used to assess time trees resultant from analyses varying in calibration regime, divergence dating approach or molecular sequence data analyzed. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Fifty years of violent war deaths from Vietnam to Bosnia: analysis of data from the world health survey programme

PubMed Central

2008-01-01

Objective To provide an accurate estimate of violent war deaths. Design Analysis of survey data on mortality, adjusted for sampling bias and censoring, from nationally representative surveys designed to measure population health. Estimated deaths compared with estimates in database of passive reports. Setting 2002-3 World health surveys, in which information was collected from one respondent per household about sibling deaths, including whether such deaths resulted from war injuries. Main outcome measure Estimated deaths from war injuries in 13 countries over 50 years. Results From 1955 to 2002, data from the surveys indicated an estimated 5.4 million violent war deaths (95% confidence interval 3.0 to 8.7 million) in 13 countries, ranging from 7000 in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 3.8 million in Vietnam. From 1995 to 2002 survey data indicate 36 000 war deaths annually (16 000 to 71 000) in the 13 countries studied. Data from passive surveillance, however, indicated a figure of only a third of this. On the basis of the relation between world health survey data and passive reports, we estimate 378 000 globalwar deaths annually from 1985-94, the last years for which complete passive surveillance data were available. Conclusions The use of data on sibling history from peacetime population surveys can retrospectively estimate mortality from war. War causes more deaths than previously estimated, and there is no evidence to support a recent decline in war deaths. PMID:18566045

Large capacity temporary visual memory.

PubMed

Endress, Ansgar D; Potter, Mary C

2014-04-01

Visual working memory (WM) capacity is thought to be limited to 3 or 4 items. However, many cognitive activities seem to require larger temporary memory stores. Here, we provide evidence for a temporary memory store with much larger capacity than past WM capacity estimates. Further, based on previous WM research, we show that a single factor--proactive interference--is sufficient to bring capacity estimates down to the range of previous WM capacity estimates. Participants saw a rapid serial visual presentation of 5-21 pictures of familiar objects or words presented at rates of 4/s or 8/s, respectively, and thus too fast for strategies such as rehearsal. Recognition memory was tested with a single probe item. When new items were used on all trials, no fixed memory capacities were observed, with estimates of up to 9.1 retained pictures for 21-item lists, and up to 30.0 retained pictures for 100-item lists, and no clear upper bound to how many items could be retained. Further, memory items were not stored in a temporally stable form of memory but decayed almost completely after a few minutes. In contrast, when, as in most WM experiments, a small set of items was reused across all trials, thus creating proactive interference among items, capacity remained in the range reported in previous WM experiments. These results show that humans have a large-capacity temporary memory store in the absence of proactive interference, and raise the question of whether temporary memory in everyday cognitive processing is severely limited, as in WM experiments, or has the much larger capacity found in the present experiments.

Estimations of the lethal and exposure doses for representative methanol symptoms in humans.

PubMed

Moon, Chan-Seok

2017-01-01

The aim of this review was to estimate the lethal and exposure doses of a representative symptom (blindness) of methanol exposure in humans by reviewing data from previous articles. Available articles published from 1970 to 2016 that investigated the dose-response relationship for methanol exposure (i.e., the exposure concentration and the biological markers/clinical symptoms) were evaluated; the MEDLINE and RISS (Korean search engine) databases were searched. The available data from these articles were carefully selected to estimate the range and median of a lethal human dose. The regression equation and correlation coefficient (between the exposure level and urinary methanol concentration as a biological exposure marker) were assumed from the previous data. The lethal human dose of pure methanol was estimated at 15.8-474 g/person as a range and as 56.2 g/person as the median. The dose-response relationship between methanol vapor in ambient air and urinary methanol concentrations was thought to be correlated. An oral intake of 3.16-11.85 g/person of pure methanol could cause blindness. The lethal dose from respiratory intake was reported to be 4000-13,000 mg/l. The initial concentration of optic neuritis and blindness were shown to be 228.5 and 1103 mg/l, respectively, for a 12-h exposure. The concentration of biological exposure indices and clinical symptoms for methanol exposure might have a dose-response relationship according to previous articles. Even a low dose of pure methanol through oral or respiratory exposure might be lethal or result in blindness as a clinical symptom.

High-precision Location, Yield and Tectonic Release of North Korea's 3 September 2017 Nuclear Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, J.; Tian, D.; Wen, L.

2017-12-01

On 3 September 2017, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) announced that it had successfully conducted a thermonuclear (hydrogen bomb) test. The nuclear test was collaborated by reports of a seismic event with a magnitude ranging from 6.1 to 6.3 by many governmental and international agencies, although its thermonuclear nature remains to be confirmed. In this study, by combining modern methods of high-precision relocation and satellite imagery, and using the knowledge of a previous test (North Korea's 9 September 2016 test) as reference, we determine the location and yield of North Korea's 2017 test. The location of the 2017 test is determined by deriving relative location between North Korea's 2017 and 2016 nuclear tests and using the previously determined location of the 2016 nuclear test by our group, while its yield is estimated based on the relative amplitude ratios of the Lg waves recorded for both events, the previously determined Lg-magnitude of the 2016 test and burial depth inferred from satellite imagery. The 2017 nuclear test is determined to be located at (41° 17' 53.52″ N, 129° 4' 27.12″ E) with a geographic precision of 100 m, and its yield is estimated to be 108±48 kt. The 2017 nuclear test and its four previous tests since 2009 are located several hundred meters apart, beneath the same mountain Mantap. We also evaluate the tectonic release by the 2017 nuclear test and discuss its implications for the yield estimation of the test.

Trends in micro- and nanoComputed Tomography 2008-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stock, S. R.

2010-09-01

Trends in micro- and nanoComputed Tomography (CT) from January 2008 through July 2010 are the subject of this brief report which takes up where a previous report in Developments in X-ray Tomography VI (2008) concluded. First, the number of systems operating world-wide is estimated. The main focus is on what searches of three citation indices (Web of Science, Compendex and PubMed) reveal about the field of micro- and nanoCT. Given research-fielddependent and disparate terminology used by investigators, searches were on "microtomography", "microCT" and "synchrotron tomography".

Early evolution of the angiosperm clade Asteraceae in the Cretaceous of Antarctica

PubMed Central

Barreda, Viviana D.; Palazzesi, Luis; Tellería, Maria C.; Olivero, Eduardo B.; Raine, J. Ian; Forest, Félix

2015-01-01

The Asteraceae (sunflowers and daisies) are the most diverse family of flowering plants. Despite their prominent role in extant terrestrial ecosystems, the early evolutionary history of this family remains poorly understood. Here we report the discovery of a number of fossil pollen grains preserved in dinosaur-bearing deposits from the Late Cretaceous of Antarctica that drastically pushes back the timing of assumed origin of the family. Reliably dated to ∼76–66 Mya, these specimens are about 20 million years older than previously known records for the Asteraceae. Using a phylogenetic approach, we interpreted these fossil specimens as members of an extinct early diverging clade of the family, associated with subfamily Barnadesioideae. Based on a molecular phylogenetic tree calibrated using fossils, including the ones reported here, we estimated that the most recent common ancestor of the family lived at least 80 Mya in Gondwana, well before the thermal and biogeographical isolation of Antarctica. Most of the early diverging lineages of the family originated in a narrow time interval after the K/P boundary, 60–50 Mya, coinciding with a pronounced climatic warming during the Late Paleocene and Early Eocene, and the scene of a dramatic rise in flowering plant diversity. Our age estimates reduce earlier discrepancies between the age of the fossil record and previous molecular estimates for the origin of the family, bearing important implications in the evolution of flowering plants in general. PMID:26261324

Evaluation of a photographic food atlas as a tool for quantifying food portion size in the United Arab Emirates

PubMed Central

Platat, Carine; El Mesmoudi, Najoua; El Sadig, Mohamed; Tewfik, Ihab

2018-01-01

Although, United Arab Emirates (UAE) has one of the highest prevalence of overweight, obesity and type 2 diabetes in the world, however, validated dietary assessment aids to estimate food intake of individuals and populations in the UAE are currently lacking. We conducted two observational studies to evaluate the accuracy of a photographic food atlas which was developed as a tool for food portion size estimation in the UAE. The UAE Food Atlas presents eight portion sizes for each food. Study 1 involved portion size estimations of 13 food items consumed during the previous day. Study 2 involved portion size estimations of nine food items immediately after consumption. Differences between the food portion sizes estimated from the photographs and the weighed food portions (estimation error), as well as the percentage differences relative to the weighed food portion for each tested food item were calculated. Four of the evaluated food items were underestimated (by -8.9% to -18.4%), while nine were overestimated (by 9.5% to 90.9%) in Study 1. Moreover, there were significant differences between estimated and eaten food portions for eight food items (P<0.05). In Study 2, one food item was underestimated (-8.1%) while eight were overestimated (range 2.52% to 82.1%). Furthermore, there were significant differences between estimated and eaten food portions (P<0.05) for six food items. The limits of agreement between the estimated and consumed food portion size were wide indicating a large variability in food portion estimation errors. These reported findings highlight the need for further developments of the UAE Food Atlas to improve the accuracy of food portion size intake estimations in dietary assessments. Additionally, recalling food portions from the previous day did not seem to increase food portion estimation errors in this study. PMID:29698434

Methodological Framework for Analysis of Buildings-Related Programs with BEAMS, 2008

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Douglas B.; Dirks, James A.; Hostick, Donna J.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) develops official “benefits estimates” for each of its major programs using its Planning, Analysis, and Evaluation (PAE) Team. PAE conducts an annual integrated modeling and analysis effort to produce estimates of the energy, environmental, and financial benefits expected from EERE’s budget request. These estimates are part of EERE’s budget request and are also used in the formulation of EERE’s performance measures. Two of EERE’s major programs are the Building Technologies Program (BT) and the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP). Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports PAEmore » by developing the program characterizations and other market information necessary to provide input to the EERE integrated modeling analysis as part of PAE’s Portfolio Decision Support (PDS) effort. Additionally, PNNL also supports BT by providing line-item estimates for the Program’s internal use. PNNL uses three modeling approaches to perform these analyses. This report documents the approach and methodology used to estimate future energy, environmental, and financial benefits using one of those methods: the Building Energy Analysis and Modeling System (BEAMS). BEAMS is a PC-based accounting model that was built in Visual Basic by PNNL specifically for estimating the benefits of buildings-related projects. It allows various types of projects to be characterized including whole-building, envelope, lighting, and equipment projects. This document contains an overview section that describes the estimation process and the models used to estimate energy savings. The body of the document describes the algorithms used within the BEAMS software. This document serves both as stand-alone documentation for BEAMS, and also as a supplemental update of a previous document, Methodological Framework for Analysis of Buildings-Related Programs: The GPRA Metrics Effort, (Elliott et al. 2004b). The areas most changed since the publication of that previous document are those discussing the calculation of lighting and HVAC interactive effects (for both lighting and envelope/whole-building projects). This report does not attempt to convey inputs to BEAMS or the methodology of their derivation.« less

Distribution and abundance of sacred monkeys in Igboland, southern Nigeria.

PubMed

Baker, Lynne R; Tanimola, Adebowale A; Olubode, Oluseun S; Garshelis, David L

2009-07-01

Although primates are hunted on a global scale, some species are protected against harassment and killing by taboos or religious doctrines. Sites where the killing of sacred monkeys or the destruction of sacred groves is forbidden may be integral to the conservation of certain species. In 2004, as part of a distribution survey of Sclater's guenon (Cercopithecus sclateri) in southern Nigeria, we investigated reports of sacred monkeys in the Igbo-speaking region of Nigeria. We confirmed nine new sites where primates are protected as sacred: four with tantalus monkeys (Chlorocebus tantalus) and five with mona monkeys (Cercopithecus mona). During 2004-2006, we visited two communities (Akpugoeze and Lagwa) previously known to harbor sacred populations of Ce. sclateri to estimate population abundance and trends. We directly counted all groups and compared our estimates with previous counts when available. We also estimated the size of sacred groves and compared these with grove sizes reported in the literature. The mean size of the sacred groves in Akpugoeze (2.06 ha, n = 10) was similar to others in Africa south of the Sahel, but larger than the average grove in Lagwa (0.49 ha, n = 15). We estimated a total population of 124 Sclater's monkeys in 15 groups in Lagwa and 193 monkeys in 20 groups in Akpugoeze. The Akpugoeze population was relatively stable over two decades, although the proportion of infants declined, and the number of groups increased. As Sclater's monkey does not occur in any official protected areas, sacred populations are important to the species' long-term conservation. Despite the monkeys' destruction of human crops, most local people still adhere to the custom of not killing monkeys. These sites represent ideal locations in which to study the ecology of Sclater's monkey and human-wildlife interactions. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sibling recurrence and the genetic epidemiology of autism

PubMed Central

Constantino, John N.; Zhang, Yi; Frazier, Thomas; Abbacchi, Anna M.; Law, Paul

2010-01-01

Objective Although the symptoms of autism exhibit quantitative distributions in nature, estimates of recurrence risk in families have never previously considered or incorporated quantitative characterization of the autistic phenotype among siblings. Method We report the results of quantitative characterization of 2,920 children from 1,235 families participating in a national volunteer register who met the criteria of having at least one child clinically-affected by an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and at least one full biological sibling. Results The occurrence of a traditionally-defined ASD in an additional child occurred in 10.9% of the families. An additional 20% of non-ASD-affected siblings had a history of language delay, half of whom had exhibited autistic qualities of speech. Quantitative characterization using the Social Responsiveness Scale (SRS) supported previously-reported aggregation of a wide range of subclinical (quantitative) autistic traits among otherwise unaffected children in multiple-incidence families, and a relative absence of quantitative autistic traits among siblings in single-incidence autism families. Girls whose standardized severity ratings fell above a first percentile severity threshold (relative to the general population distribution) were significantly less likely to have elicited community diagnoses than their male counterparts. Conclusions These data suggest that, depending on how it is defined, sibling recurrence in ASD may exceed previously-published estimates, and varies as a function of family type. The results support differences in mechanisms of genetic transmission between simplex and multiplex autism, and advance current understanding of the genetic epidemiology of autism. PMID:20889652

REVIEW OF DRAFT REVISED BLUE BOOK ON ESTIMATING ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In 1994, EPA published a report, referred to as the “Blue Book,” which lays out EPA’s current methodology for quantitatively estimating radiogenic cancer risks. A follow-on report made minor adjustments to the previous estimates and presented a partial analysis of the uncertainties in the numerical estimates. In 2006, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on the health risks from exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation. Cosponsored by the EPA and several other Federal agencies, Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR VII Phase 2 (BEIR VII) primarily addresses cancer and genetic risks from low doses of low-LET radiation. In the draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (White Paper), ORIA proposed changes in EPA’s methodology for estimating radiogenic cancers, based on the contents of BEIR VII and some ancillary information. For the most part, it proposed to adopt the models and methodology recommended in BEIR VII; however, certain modifications and expansions are considered to be desirable or necessary for EPA’s purposes. EPA sought advice from the Agency’s Science Advisory Board on the application of BEIR VII and on issues relating to these modifications and expansions in the Advisory on EPA’s Draft White Paper: Modifying EPA Radiation Risk Models Based on BEIR VII (record # 83044). The SAB issued its Advisory on Jan. 31, 2008 (EPA-SAB-08-

Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps

DOE PAGES

Hugelius, Gustaf; Strauss, J.; Zubrzycki, S.; ...

2014-12-01

Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but SOC stock estimates were poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of permafrost SOC stocks, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0–3 m depth range in soils as well as for sediments deeper than 3 m in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. Revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared tomore » previous studies. Despite this there is evidence of significant remaining regional data gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for deposits below 3 m depth in deltas and the Yedoma region. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are substantial differences in other components, including the fraction of perennially frozen SOC. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 ± 12 and 472 ± 27 Pg for the 0–0.3 and 0–1 m soil depths, respectively (±95% confidence intervals). Storage of SOC in 0–3 m of soils is estimated to 1035 ± 150 Pg. Of this, 34 ± 16 Pg C is stored in poorly developed soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalized calculations, storage of SOC below 3 m of surface soils in deltaic alluvium of major Arctic rivers is estimated as 91 ± 52 Pg. In the Yedoma region, estimated SOC stocks below 3 m depth are 181 ± 54 Pg, of which 74 ± 20 Pg is stored in intact Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice- and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits. Total estimated SOC storage for the permafrost region is ∼1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of ∼1100 to 1500 Pg. Of this, ∼500 Pg is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed in the active layer or in deeper taliks, while ∼800 Pg is perennially frozen. In conclusion, this represents a substantial ∼300 Pg lowering of the estimated perennially frozen SOC stock compared to previous estimates.« less

Interatomic potentials for HeAr, HeKr, and HeXe from multiproperty fits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Danielson, L.J.; Keil, M.

1988-01-15

Crossed molecular beam measurements of differential cross sections (DCS) are reported for elastic scattering of He by Ar, Kr, and Xe at high resolution. Interatomic potentials are determined by simultaneously fitting the DCS's, as well as mixture viscosity and interaction second virial data. Bias due to systematic and potential model errors are examined and are used to estimate the accuracy of the potential energy curves obtained. Attractive well depths are 2.59, 2.67, and 2.64 meV +- 3% for HeAr, HeKr, and HeXe, respectively, agreeing with the best available HeAr potential and a previously proposed HeKr potential, but significantly deeper thanmore » previously reported potentials for HeXe. The HeXe attractive well is also considerably broader than previously reported. Attractive minimum positions are 3.48, 3.70, and 4.00 A ( +- 0.03 A) for HeAr, HeKr, and HeXe, respectively. Including the accurate diffusion data of Dunlop and co-workers (Physica A 95, 561 (1979)) and the absolute integral cross sections of Pirani and Vecchiocattivi (J. Chem. Phys. 66, 372 (1977) and revisions thereto) verify the error bounds for all three potentials.« less

Reconciling geodetic and geological estimates of recent plate motion across the Southwest Indian Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMets, C.; Calais, E.; Merkouriev, S.

2017-01-01

We use recently published, high-resolution reconstructions of the Southwest Indian Ridge to test whether a previously described systematic difference between Global Positioning System (GPS) and 3.16-Myr-average estimates of seafloor spreading rates between Antarctica and Africa is evidence for a recent slowdown in Southwest Indian Ridge seafloor spreading rates. Along the Nubia-Antarctic segment of the ridge, seafloor opening rates that are estimated with the new, high-resolution reconstructions and corrected for outward displacement agree well with geodetic rate estimates and reduce previously reported, highly significant non-closure of the Nubia-Antarctic-Sur plate circuit. The observations are inconsistent with a slowdown in spreading rates and instead indicate that Nubia-Antarctic plate motion has been steady since at least 5.2 Ma. Lwandle-Antarctic seafloor spreading rates that are estimated from the new high-resolution reconstructions differ insignificantly from a GPS estimate, thereby implying steady Lwandle-Antarctic plate motion since 5.2 Ma. Between the Somalia and Antarctic plates, the new Southwest Indian Ridge reconstructions eliminate roughly half of the systematic difference between the GPS and MORVEL spreading rate estimates.We interpret the available observations as evidence that Somalia-Antarctic spreading rates have been steady since at least 5.2 Ma and postulate that the remaining difference is attributable to random and/or systematic errors in the plate kinematic estimates and the combined effects of insufficient geodetic sampling of undeforming areas of the Somalia plate, glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica and transient deformation triggered by the 1998 Mw = 8.2 Antarctic earthquake, the 2004 Mw = 9.3 Sumatra earthquake, or possibly other large historic earthquakes.

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Holland, K. Todd

2011-01-01

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R2 = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.

Ingredients of a Successful Summer Learning Program: A Case Study of the Building Educated Leaders for Life (BELL) Accelerated Learning Summer Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capizzano, Jeffrey; Bischoff, Kendra; Woodroffe, Nicola; Chaplin, Duncan

2007-01-01

Based on positive results from a previous evaluation of a summer learning intervention, the current report describes the specific elements of the successful program so it can be replicated, and investigates potential barriers to implementation and replication. The study estimated impacts of the program overall; the authors could not identify which…

Home range use by swamp rabbits (Sylvilagus aquaticus) in a frequently inundated bottomland forest

Treesearch

Patrick A. Zollner; Winston P. Smith; Leonard A. Brennan

2000-01-01

Home range size of six swamp rabbits in south-central Arkansas was estilnated by radio-telemetry from February 1991 through March 1992. The average home range size was significantly larger than previously reported estimates. This difference is partly attributable to the large number of observations per rabbit in our study, but may also be explained by our inclusion of...

A Computer Program for Solving a Set of Conditional Maximum Likelihood Equations Arising in the Rasch Model for Questionnaires.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Erling B.

A computer program for solving the conditional likelihood equations arising in the Rasch model for questionnaires is described. The estimation method and the computational problems involved are described in a previous research report by Andersen, but a summary of those results are given in two sections of this paper. A working example is also…

Burden of fungal infections in Algeria.

PubMed

Chekiri-Talbi, M; Denning, D W

2017-06-01

We report for the first time in Algeria and provide burden estimates. We searched for existing data and estimated the incidence and prevalence of fungal diseases based on the population at risk and available epidemiological data. Demographic data were derived from the National Office of Statistics (Office National des Statistiques: ONS), World Health Organization (WHO), The Joint Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national published reports. When no data existed, risk populations were used to estimate frequencies of fungal infections, using previously described methodology. Algeria has 40.4 million inhabitants, and probably at least 568,900 (1.41%) of Algerians have a serious fungal infection each year. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (485,000) and fungal asthma (72,000) are probably the commonest problems, as there are over 1 million adult asthmatics. Candidaemia is estimated in 2,020 people, invasive aspergillosis in 2,865 people, and intra-abdominal candidiasis in 303 people; these are the most common life-threatening problems. AIDS is uncommon, but cancer is not (45,000 new cases of cancer including 1,500 in children), nor is COPD (an estimated 317,762 patients, of whom 20.3% are admitted to hospital each year). A focus on improving the diagnosis and epidemiological data related to fungal infection is necessary in Algeria.

Do children perceive postural constraints when estimating reach or action planning?

PubMed

Gabbard, Carl; Cordova, Alberto; Lee, Sunghan

2009-03-01

Estimation of whether an object is reachable from a specific body position constitutes an important aspect in effective motor planning. Researchers who estimate reachability by way of motor imagery with adults consistently report the tendency to overestimate, with some evidence of a postural effect (postural stability hypothesis). This idea suggests that perceived reaching limits depend on an individual's perceived postural constraints. Based on previous work with adults, the authors expected a significant postural effect with the Reach 2 condition, as evidenced by reduced overestimation. Furthermore, the authors hypothesized that the postural effect would be greater in younger children. They then tested these propositions among children aged 7, 9, and 11 years by asking them to estimate reach while seated (Reach 1) and in the more demanding posture of standing on 1 foot and leaning forward (Reach 2). Results indicated no age or condition difference, therefore providing no support for a postural effect. When the authors compared these data to a published report of adults, a developmental difference emerged. That is, adults recognize the perceived postural constraint of the standing position resulting in under- rather than overestimation, as displayed in the seated condition. Although preliminary, these observations suggest that estimates of reach (action planning) continue to be refined between late childhood and young adulthood.

Regional ground-water evapotranspiration and ground-water budgets, Great Basin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, William D.

2000-01-01

PART A: Ground-water evapotranspiration data from five sites in Nevada and seven sites in Owens Valley, California, were used to develop equations for estimating ground-water evapotranspiration as a function of phreatophyte plant cover or as a function of the depth to ground water. Equations are given for estimating mean daily seasonal and annual ground-water evapotranspiration. The equations that estimate ground-water evapotranspiration as a function of plant cover can be used to estimate regional-scale ground-water evapotranspiration using vegetation indices derived from satellite data for areas where the depth to ground water is poorly known. Equations that estimate ground-water evapotranspiration as a function of the depth to ground water can be used where the depth to ground water is known, but for which information on plant cover is lacking. PART B: Previous ground-water studies estimated groundwater evapotranspiration by phreatophytes and bare soil in Nevada on the basis of results of field studies published in 1912 and 1932. More recent studies of evapotranspiration by rangeland phreatophytes, using micrometeorological methods as discussed in Chapter A of this report, provide new data on which to base estimates of ground-water evapotranspiration. An approach correlating ground-water evapotranspiration with plant cover is used in conjunction with a modified soil-adjusted vegetation index derived from Landsat data to develop a method for estimating the magnitude and distribution of ground-water evapotranspiration at a regional scale. Large areas of phreatophytes near Duckwater and Lockes in Railroad Valley are believed to subsist on ground water discharged from nearby regional springs. Ground-water evapotranspiration by the Duckwater phreatophytes of about 11,500 acre-feet estimated by the method described in this report compares well with measured discharge of about 13,500 acre-feet from the springs near Duckwater. Measured discharge from springs near Lockes was about 2,400 acre-feet; estimated ground-water evapotranspiration using the proposed method was about 2,450 acre-feet. PART C: Previous estimates of ground-water budgets in Nevada were based on methods and data that now are more than 60 years old. Newer methods, data, and technologies were used in the present study to estimate ground-water recharge from precipitation and ground-water discharge by evapotranspiration by phreatophytes for 16 contiguous valleys in eastern Nevada. Annual ground-water recharge to these valleys was estimated to be about 855,000 acre-feet and annual ground-water evapotranspiration was estimated to be about 790,000 acrefeet; both are a little more than two times greater than previous estimates. The imbalance of recharge over evapotranspiration represents recharge that either (1) leaves the area as interbasin flow or (2) is derived from precipitation that falls on terrain within the topographic boundary of the study area but contributes to discharge from hydrologic systems that lie outside these topographic limits. A vegetation index derived from Landsat-satellite data was used to estimate phreatophyte plant cover on the floors of the 16 valleys. The estimated phreatophyte plant cover then was used to estimate annual ground-water evapotranspiration. Detailed estimates of summer, winter, and annual ground-water evapotranspiration for areas with different ranges of phreatophyte plant cover were prepared for each valley. The estimated ground-water discharge from 15 valleys, combined with independent estimates of interbasin ground-water flow into or from a valley, were used to calculate the percentage of recharge derived from precipitation within the topographic boundary of each valley. These percentages then were used to estimate ground-water recharge from precipitation within each valley. Ground-water budgets for all 16 valleys were based on the estimated recharge from precipitation and estimated evapotranspiration. Any imba

GPS-PWV Estimation and Analysis for CGPS Sites Operating in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, O.; Vazquez, G. E.; Bennett, R. A.; Adams, D. K.

2014-12-01

Eighty permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking stations that belong to several networks spanning Mexico intended for diverse purposes and applications were used to estimate precipitable water vapor (PWV) using measurement series covering the period of 2000-2014. We extracted the GPS-PWV from the ionosphere-free double-difference carrier phase observations, processed using the GAMIT software. The GPS data were processed with a 30 s sampling rate, 15-degree cutoff angle, and precise GPS orbits disseminated by IGS. The time-varying part of the zenith wet delay was estimated using the Global Mapping Function (GMF), while the constant part is evaluated using the Neil tropospheric model. The data reduction to compute the zenith wet delay follows the step piecewise linear strategy, which is subsequently transformed to PWV estimated every 2-hr. Although there exist previous isolated studies for estimating PWV in Mexico, this study is an attempt to perform a more complete and comprehensive analysis of PWV estimation throughout the Mexican territory. Our resulting GPS-based PWV were compared to available PWV values for 30 stations that operate in Mexico and report the PWV to Suominet. This comparison revealed differences of 1 to 2 mm between the GPS-PWV solution and the PWV reported by Suominet. Accurate values of GPS-PWV will help enhance Mexico ability to investigate water vapor advection, convective and frontal rainfall and long-term climate variability.

Accurate Estimation of Solvation Free Energy Using Polynomial Fitting Techniques

PubMed Central

Shyu, Conrad; Ytreberg, F. Marty

2010-01-01

This report details an approach to improve the accuracy of free energy difference estimates using thermodynamic integration data (slope of the free energy with respect to the switching variable λ) and its application to calculating solvation free energy. The central idea is to utilize polynomial fitting schemes to approximate the thermodynamic integration data to improve the accuracy of the free energy difference estimates. Previously, we introduced the use of polynomial regression technique to fit thermodynamic integration data (Shyu and Ytreberg, J Comput Chem 30: 2297–2304, 2009). In this report we introduce polynomial and spline interpolation techniques. Two systems with analytically solvable relative free energies are used to test the accuracy of the interpolation approach. We also use both interpolation and regression methods to determine a small molecule solvation free energy. Our simulations show that, using such polynomial techniques and non-equidistant λ values, the solvation free energy can be estimated with high accuracy without using soft-core scaling and separate simulations for Lennard-Jones and partial charges. The results from our study suggest these polynomial techniques, especially with use of non-equidistant λ values, improve the accuracy for ΔF estimates without demanding additional simulations. We also provide general guidelines for use of polynomial fitting to estimate free energy. To allow researchers to immediately utilize these methods, free software and documentation is provided via http://www.phys.uidaho.edu/ytreberg/software. PMID:20623657

Global and regional cause-of-death patterns in 1990.

PubMed Central

Murray, C. J.; Lopez, A. D.

1994-01-01

Demographic estimation techniques suggest that worldwide about 50 million deaths occur each year, of which about 39 million are in the developing countries. In countries with adequate registration of vital statistics, the age at death and the cause can be reliably determined. Only about 30-35% of all deaths are captured by vital registration (excluding sample registration schemes); for the remainder, cause-of-death estimation procedures are required. Indirect methods which model the cause-of-death structure as a function of the level of mortality can provide reasonable estimates for broad cause-of-death groups. Such methods are generally unreliable for more specific causes. In this case, estimates can be constructed from community-level mortality surveillance systems or from epidemiological evidence on specific diseases. Some check on the plausibility of the estimates is possible in view of the hierarchical structure of cause-of-death lists and the well-known age-specific patterns of diseases and injuries. The results of applying these methods to estimate the cause of death for over 120 diseases or injuries, by age, sex and region, are described. The estimates have been derived in order to calculate the years of life lost due to premature death, one of the two components of overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) calculated for the 1993 World development report. Previous attempts at cause-of-death estimation have been limited to a few diseases only, with little age-specific detail. The estimates reported in detail here should serve as a useful reference for further public health research to support the determination of health sector priorities. PMID:8062402

Occupational exposure to solvents, metals and welding fumes and risk of Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

van der Mark, Marianne; Vermeulen, Roel; Nijssen, Peter C G; Mulleners, Wim M; Sas, Antonetta M G; van Laar, Teus; Huss, Anke; Kromhout, Hans

2015-06-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the potential association between occupational exposure to solvents, metals and/or welding fumes and risk of developing Parkinson's disease (PD). Data of a hospital based case-control study including 444 PD patients and 876 age and sex matched controls was used. Occupational histories and lifestyle information of cases and controls were collected in a structured telephone interview. Exposures to aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents and metals were estimated by linking the ALOHA+ job-exposure matrix to the occupational histories. Exposure to welding fumes was estimated using self-reported information on welding activities. No statistically significant associations with any of the studied metal and solvent exposures were found. However, for self-reported welding activities we observed non-statistically significant reduced risk estimates (third tertile cumulative exposure: OR = 0.51 (95% CI: 0.21-1.24)). The results of our study did not provide support for an increased chance on developing PD after occupational exposure to aromatic solvents, chlorinated solvents or exposure to metals. The results showed reduced risk estimates for welding, which is in line with previous research, but no clear explanation for these findings is available. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heritability, assortative mating and gender differences in violent crime: results from a total population sample using twin, adoption, and sibling models.

PubMed

Frisell, Thomas; Pawitan, Yudi; Långström, Niklas; Lichtenstein, Paul

2012-01-01

Research addressing genetic and environmental determinants to antisocial behaviour suggests substantial variability across studies. Likewise, evidence for etiologic gender differences is mixed, and estimates might be biased due to assortative mating. We used longitudinal Swedish total population registers to estimate the heritability of objectively measured violent offending (convictions) in classic twin (N = 36,877 pairs), adoptee-parent (N = 5,068 pairs), adoptee-sibling (N = 10,610 pairs), and sibling designs (N = 1,521,066 pairs). Type and degree of assortative mating were calculated from comparisons between spouses of siblings and half-siblings, and across consecutive spouses. Heritability estimates for the liability of violent offending agreed with previously reported heritability for self-reported antisocial behaviour. While the sibling model yielded estimates similar to the twin model (A ≈ 55%, C ≈ 13%), adoptee-models appeared to underestimate familial effects (A ≈ 20-30%, C ≈ 0%). Assortative mating was moderate to strong (r (spouse) = 0.4), appeared to result from both phenotypic assortment and social homogamy, but had only minor effect on variance components. Finally, we found significant gender differences in the etiology of violent crime.

Parent-child discrepancies in the assessment of children's and adolescents' happiness.

PubMed

López-Pérez, Belén; Wilson, Ellie L

2015-11-01

In this study, we assessed parent-child agreement in the perception of children's general happiness or well-being in typically developing children (10- and 11-year-olds, n = 172) and adolescents (15- and 16-year-olds, n = 185). Despite parent and child reporters providing internally consistent responses in the General Happiness single-item scale and the Oxford Happiness Questionnaire-Short Form, their perceptions about children's and adolescents' general happiness did not correlate. Parents of 10- and 11-year-olds significantly overestimated children's happiness, supporting previous literature on the parents' positivity bias effect. However, parents of 15- and 16-year-olds showed the reverse pattern by underestimating adolescents' happiness. Furthermore, parents' self-reported happiness or well-being (reported 6 months later) significantly correlated with their estimations of children's and adolescents' happiness. Therefore, these results suggest a potential parents' "egocentric bias" when estimating their children's happiness. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical and applied implications for research into child-parent relationships. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Junk Food in Schools and Childhood Obesity.

PubMed

Datar, Ashlesha; Nicosia, Nancy

2012-01-01

Despite limited empirical evidence, there is growing concern that junk food availability in schools has contributed to the childhood obesity epidemic. In this paper, we estimate the effects of junk food availability on BMI, obesity, and related outcomes among a national sample of fifth-graders. Unlike previous studies, we address the endogeneity of the school food environment by controlling for children's BMI at school entry and estimating instrumental variables regressions that leverage variation in the school's grade span. Our main finding is that junk food availability does not significantly increase BMI or obesity among this fifth grade cohort despite the increased likelihood of in-school junk food purchases. The results are robust to alternate measures of junk food availability including school administrator reports of sales during school hours, school administrator reports of competitive food outlets, and children's reports of junk food availability. Moreover, the absence of any effects on overall food consumption and physical activity further support the null findings for BMI and obesity.

Junk Food in Schools and Childhood Obesity

PubMed Central

Nicosia, Nancy

2011-01-01

Despite limited empirical evidence, there is growing concern that junk food availability in schools has contributed to the childhood obesity epidemic. In this paper, we estimate the effects of junk food availability on BMI, obesity, and related outcomes among a national sample of fifth-graders. Unlike previous studies, we address the endogeneity of the school food environment by controlling for children’s BMI at school entry and estimating instrumental variables regressions that leverage variation in the school’s grade span. Our main finding is that junk food availability does not significantly increase BMI or obesity among this fifth grade cohort despite the increased likelihood of in-school junk food purchases. The results are robust to alternate measures of junk food availability including school administrator reports of sales during school hours, school administrator reports of competitive food outlets, and children’s reports of junk food availability. Moreover, the absence of any effects on overall food consumption and physical activity further support the null findings for BMI and obesity. PMID:23729952

Improved rapid magnitude estimation for a community-based, low-cost MEMS accelerometer network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chung, Angela I.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Kaiser, Anna E.; Christensen, Carl M.; Yildirim, Battalgazi; Lawrence, Jesse F.

2015-01-01

Immediately following the Mw 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, over 180 Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) low‐cost micro‐electro‐mechanical systems accelerometers were deployed in the Canterbury region. Using data recorded by this dense network from 2010 to 2013, we significantly improved the QCN rapid magnitude estimation relationship. The previous scaling relationship (Lawrence et al., 2014) did not accurately estimate the magnitudes of nearby (<35  km) events. The new scaling relationship estimates earthquake magnitudes within 1 magnitude unit of the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog magnitudes for 99% of the events tested, within 0.5 magnitude units for 90% of the events, and within 0.25 magnitude units for 57% of the events. These magnitudes are reliably estimated within 3 s of the initial trigger recorded on at least seven stations. In this report, we present the methods used to calculate a new scaling relationship and demonstrate the accuracy of the revised magnitude estimates using a program that is able to retrospectively estimate event magnitudes using archived data.

Brain Tissue Compartment Density Estimated Using Diffusion-Weighted MRI Yields Tissue Parameters Consistent With Histology

PubMed Central

Sepehrband, Farshid; Clark, Kristi A.; Ullmann, Jeremy F.P.; Kurniawan, Nyoman D.; Leanage, Gayeshika; Reutens, David C.; Yang, Zhengyi

2015-01-01

We examined whether quantitative density measures of cerebral tissue consistent with histology can be obtained from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). By incorporating prior knowledge of myelin and cell membrane densities, absolute tissue density values were estimated from relative intra-cellular and intra-neurite density values obtained from diffusion MRI. The NODDI (neurite orientation distribution and density imaging) technique, which can be applied clinically, was used. Myelin density estimates were compared with the results of electron and light microscopy in ex vivo mouse brain and with published density estimates in a healthy human brain. In ex vivo mouse brain, estimated myelin densities in different sub-regions of the mouse corpus callosum were almost identical to values obtained from electron microscopy (Diffusion MRI: 42±6%, 36±4% and 43±5%; electron microscopy: 41±10%, 36±8% and 44±12% in genu, body and splenium, respectively). In the human brain, good agreement was observed between estimated fiber density measurements and previously reported values based on electron microscopy. Estimated density values were unaffected by crossing fibers. PMID:26096639

Noble gas isotopes in mineral springs and wells within the Cascadia forearc, Washington, Oregon, and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCrory, Patricia A.; Constantz, James E.; Hunt, Andrew G.

2017-01-31

IntroductionThis U.S. Geological Survey report presents laboratory analyses along with field notes for an exploratory study to document the relative abundance of noble gases in mineral springs and water wells within the Cascadia forearc of Washington, Oregon, and California (fig. 1). This report describes 14 samples collected in 2014 and 2015 and complements a previous report that describes 9 samples collected in 2012 and 2013 (McCrory and others, 2014b). Estimates of the depth to the underlying Juan de Fuca oceanic plate beneath sample sites are derived from the McCrory and others (2012) slab model. Some of the springs have been previously sampled for chemical analyses (Mariner and others, 2006), but none of the springs or wells currently has publicly available noble gas data. The helium and neon isotope values and ratios presented below are used to determine the sources and mixing history of these mineral and well waters (for example, McCrory and others, 2016).

Influence of updating global emission inventory of black carbon on evaluation of the climate and health impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Ciais, Philippe

2013-04-01

Black carbon (BC) is an air component of particular concern in terms of air quality and climate change. Black carbon emissions are often estimated based on the fuel data and emission factors. However, large variations in emission factors reported in the literature have led to a high uncertainty in previous inventories. Here, we develop a new global 0.1°×0.1° BC emission inventory for 2007 with full uncertainty analysis based on updated source and emission factor databases. Two versions of LMDz-OR-INCA models, named as INCA and INCA-zA, are run to evaluate the new emission inventory. INCA is built up based on a regular grid system with a resolution of 1.27° in latitude and 2.50° in longitude, while INCA-zA is specially zoomed to 0.51°×0.66° (latitude×longitude) in Asia. By checking against field observations, we compare our inventory with ACCMIP, which is used by IPCC in the 5th assessment report, and also evaluate the influence of model resolutions. With the newly calculated BC air concentrations and the nested model, we estimate the direct radiative forcing of BC and the premature death and mortality rate induced by BC exposure with Asia emphasized. Global BC direct radiative forcing at TOA is estimated to be 0.41 W/m2 (0.2 - 0.8 as inter-quartile range), which is 17% higher than that derived from the inventory adopted by IPCC-AR5 (0.34 W/m2). The estimated premature deaths induced by inhalation exposure to anthropogenic BC (0.36 million in 2007) and the percentage of high risk population are higher than those previously estimated. Ninety percents of the global total anthropogenic PD occur in Asia with 0.18 and 0.08 million deaths in China and India, respectively.

Parameter estimation and characterization of a single-chamber microbial fuel cell for dairy wastewater treatment.

PubMed

Sedaqatvand, Ramin; Nasr Esfahany, Mohsen; Behzad, Tayebeh; Mohseni, Madjid; Mardanpour, Mohammad Mahdi

2013-10-01

In this study, for the first time, the conduction-based model is extended, and then combined with Genetic Algorithm to estimate the design parameters of a MFC treating dairy wastewater. The optimized parameters are, then, validated. The estimated half-saturation potential of -0.13 V (vs. SHE) is in good agreement while the biofilm conductivity of 8.76×10(-4) mS cm(-1) is three orders of magnitude lower than that previously-reported for pure-culture biofilm. Simulations show that the ohmic and concentration overpotentials contribute almost equally in dropping cell voltage in which the concentration film and biofilm conductivity comprise the main resistances, respectively. Thus, polarization analysis and determining the controlling steps will be possible through that developed extension. This study introduces a reliable method to estimate the design parameters of a particular MFC and to characterize it. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing under-reporting of stigmatized health events using the List Experiment: results from a randomized, population-based study of abortion in Liberia.

PubMed

Moseson, Heidi; Massaquoi, Moses; Dehlendorf, Christine; Bawo, Luke; Dahn, Bernice; Zolia, Yah; Vittinghoff, Eric; Hiatt, Robert A; Gerdts, Caitlin

2015-12-01

Direct measurement of sensitive health events is often limited by high levels of under-reporting due to stigma and concerns about privacy. Abortion in particular is notoriously difficult to measure. This study implements a novel method to estimate the cumulative lifetime incidence of induced abortion in Liberia. In a randomly selected sample of 3219 women ages 15–49 years in June 2013 in Liberia, we implemented the ‘Double List Experiment’. To measure abortion incidence, each woman was read two lists: (A) a list of non-sensitive items and (B) a list of correlated non-sensitive items with abortion added. The sensitive item, abortion, was randomly added to either List A or List B for each respondent. The respondent reported a simple count of the options on each list that she had experienced, without indicating which options. Difference in means calculations between the average counts for each list were then averaged to provide an estimate of the population proportion that has had an abortion. The list experiment estimates that 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.34) of respondents surveyed had ever had an abortion (26% of women in urban areas, and 36% of women in rural areas, P-value for difference < 0.001), with a 95% response rate. The list experiment generated an estimate five times greater than the only previous representative estimate of abortion in Liberia, indicating the potential utility of this method to reduce under-reporting in the measurement of abortion. The method could be widely applied to measure other stigmatized health topics, including sexual behaviours, sexual assault or domestic violence.

Meaningful improvement in gait speed in hip fracture recovery.

PubMed

Alley, Dawn E; Hicks, Gregory E; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L; Mangione, Kathleen K; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-09-01

To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. Effect size-based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cutpoints yielded low sensitivity (0.39-0.62) and specificity (0.57-0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Meaningful Improvement in Gait Speed in Hip Fracture Recovery

PubMed Central

Alley, Dawn E.; Hicks, Gregory E.; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L.; Mangione, Kathleen K.; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVES To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. DESIGN Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials SETTING Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. MEASUREMENTS Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. RESULTS Effect size–based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cut-points yielded low sensitivity (0.39–0.62) and specificity (0.57–0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. CONCLUSION Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. PMID:21883109

Dietary intakes assessed by 24-h recalls in peri-urban African adolescents: validity of energy intake compared with estimated energy expenditure.

PubMed

Rankin, D; Ellis, S M; Macintyre, U E; Hanekom, S M; Wright, H H

2011-08-01

The objective of this study is to determine the relative validity of reported energy intake (EI) derived from multiple 24-h recalls against estimated energy expenditure (EE(est)). Basal metabolic rate (BMR) equations and physical activity factors were incorporated to calculate EE(est). This analysis was nested in the multidisciplinary PhysicaL Activity in the Young study with a prospective study design. Peri-urban black South African adolescents were investigated in a subsample of 131 learners (87 girls and 44 boys) from the parent study sample of 369 (211 girls and 158 boys) who had all measurements taken. Pearson correlation coefficients and Bland-Altman plots were calculated to identify the most accurate published equations to estimate BMR (P<0.05 statistically significant). EE(est) was estimated using BMR equations and estimated physical activity factors derived from Previous Day Physical Activity Recall questionnaires. After calculation of EE(est), the relative validity of reported energy intake (EI(rep)) derived from multiple 24-h recalls was tested for three data subsets using Pearson correlation coefficients. Goldberg's formula identified cut points (CPs) for under and over reporting of EI. Pearson correlation coefficients between calculated BMRs ranged from 0.97 to 0.99. Bland-Altman analyses showed acceptable agreement (two equations for each gender). One equation for each gender was used to calculate EE(est). Pearson correlation coefficients between EI(rep) and EE(est) for three data sets were weak, indicating poor agreement. CPs for physical activity groups showed under reporting in 87% boys and 95% girls. The 24-h recalls measured at five measurements over 2 years offered poor validity between EI(rep) and EE(est).

Retention of Adult Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis 2008–2013

PubMed Central

Fox, Matthew P; MPA, Sydney Rosen

2015-01-01

Background We previously published systematic reviews of retention in care after antiretroviral therapy initiation among general adult populations in sub-Saharan Africa. We estimated 36-month retention at 73% for publications from 2007–2010. This report extends the review to cover 2008–2013 and expands it to all low- and middle-income countries. Methods We searched PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Register, and ISI Web of Science from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2013 and abstracts from AIDS and IAS from 2008–2013. We estimated retention across cohorts using simple averages and interpolated missing times through the last time reported. We estimated all-cause attrition (death, loss to follow-up) for patients receiving first-line ART in routine settings in low- and middle-income countries. Results We found 123 papers and abstracts reporting retention for 154 patient cohorts and 1,554,773 patients in 42 countries. Overall, 43% of all patients not retained were known to have died. Unweighted averages of reported retention was 78%, 71% and 69% at 12, 24, and 36 months after treatment initiation, respectively. We estimated 36-month retention at 65% in Africa, 80% in Asia, and 64% in Latin America and the Caribbean. From lifetable analysis, we estimated retention at 12, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months at 83%, 74%, 68%, 64% and 60%, respectively. Conclusions Retention at 36 months on treatment averages 65–70%. There are several important gaps in the evidence-base, which could be filled by further research, especially in terms of geographic coverage and duration of follow-up. PMID:25942461

Survey of Crop Losses in Response to Phytoparasitic Nematodes in the United States for 1994

PubMed Central

Koenning, S. R.; Overstreet, C.; Noling, J. W.; Donald, P. A.; Becker, J. O.; Fortnum, B. A.

1999-01-01

Previous reports of crop losses to plant-parasitic nematodes have relied on published results of survey data based on certain commodities, including tobacco, peanuts, cotton, and soybean. Reports on crop-loss assessment by land-grant universities and many commodity groups generally are no longer available, with the exception of the University of Georgia, the Beltwide Cotton Conference, and selected groups concerned with soybean. The Society of Nematologists Extension Committee contacted extension personnel in 49 U.S. states for information on estimated crop losses caused by plant-parasitic nematodes in major crops for the year 1994. Included in this paper are survey results from 35 states on various crops including corn, cotton, soybean, peanut, wheat, rice, sugarcane, sorghum, tobacco, numerous vegetable crops, fruit and nut crops, and golf greens. The data are reported systematically by state and include the estimated loss, hectarage of production, source of information, nematode species or taxon when available, and crop value. The major genera of phytoparasitic nematodes reported to cause crop losses were Heterodera, Hoplolaimus, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Rotylenchulus, and Xiphinema. PMID:19270925

Survey of crop losses in response to phytoparasitic nematodes in the United States for 1994.

PubMed

Koenning, S R; Overstreet, C; Noling, J W; Donald, P A; Becker, J O; Fortnum, B A

1999-12-01

Previous reports of crop losses to plant-parasitic nematodes have relied on published results of survey data based on certain commodities, including tobacco, peanuts, cotton, and soybean. Reports on crop-loss assessment by land-grant universities and many commodity groups generally are no longer available, with the exception of the University of Georgia, the Beltwide Cotton Conference, and selected groups concerned with soybean. The Society of Nematologists Extension Committee contacted extension personnel in 49 U.S. states for information on estimated crop losses caused by plant-parasitic nematodes in major crops for the year 1994. Included in this paper are survey results from 35 states on various crops including corn, cotton, soybean, peanut, wheat, rice, sugarcane, sorghum, tobacco, numerous vegetable crops, fruit and nut crops, and golf greens. The data are reported systematically by state and include the estimated loss, hectarage of production, source of information, nematode species or taxon when available, and crop value. The major genera of phytoparasitic nematodes reported to cause crop losses were Heterodera, Hoplolaimus, Meloidogyne, Pratylenchus, Rotylenchulus, and Xiphinema.

Applications of system identification methods to the prediction of helicopter stability, control and handling characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padfield, G. D.; Duval, R. K.

1982-01-01

A set of results on rotorcraft system identification is described. Flight measurements collected on an experimental Puma helicopter are reviewed and some notable characteristics highlighted. Following a brief review of previous work in rotorcraft system identification, the results of state estimation and model structure estimation processes applied to the Puma data are presented. The results, which were obtained using NASA developed software, are compared with theoretical predictions of roll, yaw and pitching moment derivatives for a 6 degree of freedom model structure. Anomalies are reported. The theoretical methods used are described. A framework for reduced order modelling is outlined.

A Priori Estimation of Organic Reaction Yields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Emami, Fateme S.; Vahid, Amir; Wylie, Elizabeth K.

2015-07-21

A thermodynamically guided calculation of free energies of substrate and product molecules allows for the estimation of the yields of organic reactions. The non-ideality of the system and the solvent effects are taken into account through the activity coefficients calculated at the molecular level by perturbed-chain statistical associating fluid theory (PC-SAFT). The model is iteratively trained using a diverse set of reactions with yields that have been reported previously. This trained model can then estimate a priori the yields of reactions not included in the training set with an accuracy of ca. ±15 %. This ability has the potential tomore » translate into significant economic savings through the selection and then execution of only those reactions that can proceed in good yields.« less

Do adults show a curse of knowledge in false-belief reasoning? A robust estimate of the true effect size.

PubMed

Ryskin, Rachel A; Brown-Schmidt, Sarah

2014-01-01

Seven experiments use large sample sizes to robustly estimate the effect size of a previous finding that adults are more likely to commit egocentric errors in a false-belief task when the egocentric response is plausible in light of their prior knowledge. We estimate the true effect size to be less than half of that reported in the original findings. Even though we found effects in the same direction as the original, they were substantively smaller; the original study would have had less than 33% power to detect an effect of this magnitude. The influence of plausibility on the curse of knowledge in adults appears to be small enough that its impact on real-life perspective-taking may need to be reevaluated.

Use of logistic regression for modelling risk factors: with application to non-melanoma skin cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vitaliano, P.P.

Logistic regression was used to estimate the relative risk of basal and squamous skin cancer for such factors as cumulative lifetime solar exposure, age, complexion, and tannability. In previous reports, a subject's exposure was estimated indirectly, by latitude, or by the number of sun days in a subject's habitat. In contrast, these results are based on interview data gathered for each subject. A relatively new technique was used to estimate relative risk by controlling for confounding and testing for effect modification. A linear effect for the relative risk of cancer versus exposure was found. Tannability was shown to be amore » more important risk factor than complexion. This result is consistent with the work of Silverstone and Searle.« less

A framework for the meta-analysis of Bland-Altman studies based on a limits of agreement approach.

PubMed

Tipton, Elizabeth; Shuster, Jonathan

2017-10-15

Bland-Altman method comparison studies are common in the medical sciences and are used to compare a new measure to a gold-standard (often costlier or more invasive) measure. The distribution of these differences is summarized by two statistics, the 'bias' and standard deviation, and these measures are combined to provide estimates of the limits of agreement (LoA). When these LoA are within the bounds of clinically insignificant differences, the new non-invasive measure is preferred. Very often, multiple Bland-Altman studies have been conducted comparing the same two measures, and random-effects meta-analysis provides a means to pool these estimates. We provide a framework for the meta-analysis of Bland-Altman studies, including methods for estimating the LoA and measures of uncertainty (i.e., confidence intervals). Importantly, these LoA are likely to be wider than those typically reported in Bland-Altman meta-analyses. Frequently, Bland-Altman studies report results based on repeated measures designs but do not properly adjust for this design in the analysis. Meta-analyses of Bland-Altman studies frequently exclude these studies for this reason. We provide a meta-analytic approach that allows inclusion of estimates from these studies. This includes adjustments to the estimate of the standard deviation and a method for pooling the estimates based upon robust variance estimation. An example is included based on a previously published meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Normal range of human dietary sodium intake: a perspective based on 24-hour urinary sodium excretion worldwide.

PubMed

McCarron, David A; Kazaks, Alexandra G; Geerling, Joel C; Stern, Judith S; Graudal, Niels A

2013-10-01

The recommendation to restrict dietary sodium for management of hypertensive cardiovascular disease assumes that sodium intake exceeds physiologic need, that it can be significantly reduced, and that the reduction can be maintained over time. In contrast, neuroscientists have identified neural circuits in vertebrate animals that regulate sodium appetite within a narrow physiologic range. This study further validates our previous report that sodium intake, consistent with the neuroscience, tracks within a narrow range, consistent over time and across cultures. Peer-reviewed publications reporting 24-hour urinary sodium excretion (UNaV) in a defined population that were not included in our 2009 publication were identified from the medical literature. These datasets were combined with those in our previous report of worldwide dietary sodium consumption. The new data included 129 surveys, representing 50,060 participants. The mean value and range of 24-hour UNaV in each of these datasets were within 1 SD of our previous estimate. The combined mean and normal range of sodium intake of the 129 datasets were nearly identical to that we previously reported (mean = 158.3±22.5 vs. 162.4±22.4 mmol/d). Merging the previous and new datasets (n = 190) yielded sodium consumption of 159.4±22.3 mmol/d (range = 114-210 mmol/d; 2,622-4,830mg/d). Human sodium intake, as defined by 24-hour UNaV, is characterized by a narrow range that is remarkably reproducible over at least 5 decades and across 45 countries. As documented here, this range is determined by physiologic needs rather than environmental factors. Future guidelines should be based on this biologically determined range.

Photometric Properties of Network and Faculae Derived from HMI Data Compensated for Scattered Light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Criscuoli, Serena; Norton, Aimee; Whitney, Taylor

2017-10-01

We report on the photometric properties of faculae and network, as observed in full-disk, scattered-light-corrected images from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager. We use a Lucy-Richardson deconvolution routine that corrects an image in less than one second. Faculae are distinguished from network through proximity to active regions. This is the first report that full-disk observations, including center-to-limb variations, reproduce the photometric properties of faculae and network observed previously only in sub-arcsecond-resolution; small field-of-view studies, I.e. that network, as defined by distance from active regions, exhibit higher photometric contrasts. Specifically, for magnetic flux values larger than approximately 300 G, the network is brighter than faculae and the contrast differences increase toward the limb, where the network contrast is about twice the facular one. For lower magnetic flux values, network appear darker than faculae. Contrary to reports from previous full-disk observations, we also found that network exhibits a higher center-to-limb variation. Our results are in agreement with reports from simulations that indicate magnetic flux alone is a poor proxy of the photometric properties of magnetic features. We estimate that the contribution of faculae and network to Total Solar Irradiance variability of the current Cycle 24 is overestimated by at least 11%, due to the photometric properties of network and faculae not being recognized as different. This estimate is specific to the method employed in this study to reconstruct irradiance variations, so caution should be paid when extending it to other techniques.

Diagnoses of Depression and Anxiety Versus Current Symptoms and Quality of Life in Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Marrie, Ruth Ann; Patten, Scott B; Berrigan, Lindsay I; Tremlett, Helen; Wolfson, Christina; Warren, Sharon; Leung, Stella; Fiest, Kirsten M; McKay, Kyla A; Fisk, John D

2018-01-01

Studies assessing the prevalence of depression and anxiety in multiple sclerosis (MS) have used various ascertainment methods that capture different constructs. The relationships between these methods are incompletely understood. Psychiatric comorbidity is associated with lower health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in MS, but the effects of past diagnoses of depression and anxiety on HRQOL are largely unknown. We compared the prevalence of depression and anxiety in persons with MS using administrative data, self-reported physician diagnoses, and symptom-based measures and compared characteristics of persons classified as depressed or anxious by each method. We evaluated whether HRQOL was most affected by previous diagnoses of depression or anxiety or by current symptoms. We linked clinical and administrative data for 859 participants with MS. HRQOL was measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3. We classified participants as depressed or anxious using administrative data, self-reported physician diagnoses, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Multivariable linear regression examined whether diagnosed depression or anxiety affected HRQOL after accounting for current symptoms. Lifetime prevalence estimates for depression were approximately 30% regardless of methods used, but 35.8% with current depressive symptoms were not captured by either administrative data or self-reported diagnoses. Prevalence estimates of anxiety ranged from 11% to 19%, but 65.6% with current anxiety were not captured by either administrative data or self-reported diagnoses. Previous diagnoses did not decrease HRQOL after accounting for current symptoms. Depression and, to a greater extent, anxiety remain underdiagnosed and undertreated in MS; both substantially contribute to reduced HRQOL in MS.

Photometric Properties of Network and Faculae Derived from HMI Data Compensated for Scattered Light

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Criscuoli, Serena; Whitney, Taylor; Norton, Aimee

We report on the photometric properties of faculae and network, as observed in full-disk, scattered-light-corrected images from the Helioseismic Magnetic Imager. We use a Lucy–Richardson deconvolution routine that corrects an image in less than one second. Faculae are distinguished from network through proximity to active regions. This is the first report that full-disk observations, including center-to-limb variations, reproduce the photometric properties of faculae and network observed previously only in sub-arcsecond-resolution; small field-of-view studies, i.e. that network, as defined by distance from active regions, exhibit higher photometric contrasts. Specifically, for magnetic flux values larger than approximately 300 G, the network ismore » brighter than faculae and the contrast differences increase toward the limb, where the network contrast is about twice the facular one. For lower magnetic flux values, network appear darker than faculae. Contrary to reports from previous full-disk observations, we also found that network exhibits a higher center-to-limb variation. Our results are in agreement with reports from simulations that indicate magnetic flux alone is a poor proxy of the photometric properties of magnetic features. We estimate that the contribution of faculae and network to Total Solar Irradiance variability of the current Cycle 24 is overestimated by at least 11%, due to the photometric properties of network and faculae not being recognized as different. This estimate is specific to the method employed in this study to reconstruct irradiance variations, so caution should be paid when extending it to other techniques.« less

On the Measurement of Elemental Abundance Ratios in Inner Galaxy H II Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Janet P.; Rubin, Robert H.; Colgan, Sean W. J.; Erickson, Edwin F.; Haas, Michael R.

2004-01-01

Although abundance gradients in the Milky Way Galaxy certainly exist, details remain uncertain, particularly in the inner Galaxy, where stars and H II regions in the Galactic plane are obscured optically. In this paper we revisit two previously studied, inner Galaxy H II regions: G333.6-0.2 and W43. We observed three new positions in G333.6-0.2 with the Kuiper Airborne Observatory and reobserved the central position with the Infrared Space Observatory's Long Wavelength Spectrometer in far-infrared lines of S++, N++, N+, and O++. We also added the N+ lines at 122 and 205 microns to the suite of lines measured in W43 by Simpson et al.. The measured electron densities range from approx. 40 to over 4000 per cu cm in a single HII region, indicating that abundance analyses must consider density variations, since the critical densities of the observed lines range from 40 to 9000 per cu cm. We propose a method to handle density variations and make new estimates of the S/H and N/H abundance ratios. We find that our sulfur abundance estimates for G333.6-0.2 and W43 agree with the S/H abundance ratios expected for the gradient previously reported by Simpson et al., with the S/H values revised to be smaller owing to changes in collisional excitation cross sections. The estimated N/H, S/H, and N/S ratios are the most reliable because of their small corrections for unseen ionization states (< or approx. 10%). The estimated N/S ratios for the two sources are smaller than what would be calculated from the N/H and S/H ratios in our previous paper. If all low excitation H II regions had similar changes to their N/S ratios as a result of adding measurements of N+ to previous measurements of N++, there would be no or only a very small gradient in N/S. This is interesting because nitrogen is considered to be a secondary element and sulfur is a primary element in galactic chemical evolution calculations. We compute models of the two H II regions to estimate corrections for the other unseen ionization states. We find, with large uncertainties, that oxygen does not, have a high abundance, with the result that the N/O ratio is as high (approx. 0.35) as previously reported. The reasons for the uncertainty in the ionization corrections for oxygen are both the non-uniqueness of the H II region models and the sensitivity of these models to different input atomic data and stellar atmosphere models. We discuss these predictions and conclude that only a few of the latest models adequately reproduce H II region observations, including the well-known, relatively-large observed Ne++/O++ ratios in low- and moderate-excitation H II regions.

A Global Emission Inventory of Black Carbon and Primary Organic Carbon from Fossil-Fuel and Biofuel Combustion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bond, T. C.; Streets, D. G.; Nelson, S. M.

2001-12-01

Regional and global climate models rely on emission inventories of black carbon and organic carbon to determine the climatic effects of primary particulate matter (PM) from combustion. The emission of primary carbonaceous particles is highly dependent on fuel type and combustion practice. Therefore, simple categories such as "domestic" or "industrial" combustion are not sufficient to quantify emissions, and the black-carbon and organic-carbon fractions of PM vary with combustion type. We present a global inventory of primary carbonaceous particles that improves on previous "bottom-up" tabulations (e.g. \\textit{Cooke et al.,} 1999) by considering approximately 100 technologies, each representing one combination of fuel, combustion type, and emission controls. For fossil-fuel combustion, we include several categories not found in previous inventories, including "superemitting" and two-stroke vehicles, steel-making. We also include emissions from waste burning and biofuels used for heating and cooking. Open biomass burning is not included. Fuel use, drawn from International Energy Agency (IEA) and United Nations (UN) data, is divided into technologies on a regional basis. We suggest that emissions in developing countries are better characterized by including high-emitting technologies than by invoking emission multipliers. Due to lack of information on emission factors and technologies in use, uncertainties are high. We estimate central values and uncertainties by combining the range of emission factors found in the literature with reasonable estimates of technology divisions. We provide regional totals of central, low and high estimates, identify the sources of greatest uncertainty to be targeted for future work, and compare our results with previous emission inventories. Both central estimates and uncertainties are given on a 1\\deg x1\\deg grid. As we have reported previously for the case of China (\\textit{Streets et al.,} 2001), low-technology combustion contributes greatly to the emissions and to the uncertainties.

Maximum swimming speeds of sailfish and three other large marine predatory fish species based on muscle contraction time and stride length: a myth revisited

PubMed Central

Svendsen, Morten B. S.; Domenici, Paolo; Marras, Stefano; Krause, Jens; Boswell, Kevin M.; Rodriguez-Pinto, Ivan; Wilson, Alexander D. M.; Kurvers, Ralf H. J. M.; Viblanc, Paul E.; Finger, Jean S.; Steffensen, John F.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Billfishes are considered to be among the fastest swimmers in the oceans. Previous studies have estimated maximum speed of sailfish and black marlin at around 35 m s−1 but theoretical work on cavitation predicts that such extreme speed is unlikely. Here we investigated maximum speed of sailfish, and three other large marine pelagic predatory fish species, by measuring the twitch contraction time of anaerobic swimming muscle. The highest estimated maximum swimming speeds were found in sailfish (8.3±1.4 m s−1), followed by barracuda (6.2±1.0 m s−1), little tunny (5.6±0.2 m s−1) and dorado (4.0±0.9 m s−1); although size-corrected performance was highest in little tunny and lowest in sailfish. Contrary to previously reported estimates, our results suggest that sailfish are incapable of exceeding swimming speeds of 10-15 m s−1, which corresponds to the speed at which cavitation is predicted to occur, with destructive consequences for fin tissues. PMID:27543056

A projected decrease in lightning under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finney, Declan L.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Wild, Oliver; Stevenson, David S.; MacKenzie, Ian A.; Blyth, Alan M.

2018-03-01

Lightning strongly influences atmospheric chemistry1-3, and impacts the frequency of natural wildfires4. Most previous studies project an increase in global lightning with climate change over the coming century1,5-7, but these typically use parameterizations of lightning that neglect cloud ice fluxes, a component generally considered to be fundamental to thunderstorm charging8. As such, the response of lightning to climate change is uncertain. Here, we compare lightning projections for 2100 using two parameterizations: the widely used cloud-top height (CTH) approach9, and a new upward cloud ice flux (IFLUX) approach10 that overcomes previous limitations. In contrast to the previously reported global increase in lightning based on CTH, we find a 15% decrease in total lightning flash rate with IFLUX in 2100 under a strong global warming scenario. Differences are largest in the tropics, where most lightning occurs, with implications for the estimation of future changes in tropospheric ozone and methane, as well as differences in their radiative forcings. These results suggest that lightning schemes more closely related to cloud ice and microphysical processes are needed to robustly estimate future changes in lightning and atmospheric composition.

Validity of self-reported lunch recalls in Swedish school children aged 6–8 years

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Previous studies have suggested that young children are inaccurate reporters of dietary intake. The purpose of this study was to validate a single recall of the previous day’s school lunch reported by 6–8 year old Swedish children and to assess teacher-recorded intake of the same meal in a standardized food journal. An additional research question was whether parents could report their child’s intake of the previous day’s lunch. Subjects constituted a convenience sample from the large, multi-country study Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health EFfects In Children and infantS (IDEFICS). Validations of both children’s recalls and teachers’ records were made by comparing results with the duplicate plate reference method. Findings Twenty-five children (12 boys/13 girls) aged 6–8 years participated in the validation study at one school in western Sweden. Children were accurate self-reporters of their dietary intake at lunch, with no significant difference between reported and weighed intake (Mean difference (SD): 7(50) kcals, p=0.49). Teachers significantly over-reported intake (Mean difference (SD): 65(79) kcals, p=0.01). For both methods, child-reported and teacher-recorded, correlations with weighed intake were strong (Pearson’s correlations r=0.92, p<0.001 and r=0.83, p<0.001 respectively). Bland-Altman plots showed strong agreement between child-reported and weighed intakes but confirmed systematic differences between teacher-records and weighed intakes. Foods were recalled by children with a food-match rate of 90%. In all cases parents themselves were unable to report on quantities consumed and only four of 25 children had parents with knowledge regarding food items consumed. Conclusions Children 6–8 years of age accurately recalled their school lunch intake for one occasion while teachers recorded with less accuracy. Our findings suggest that children as young as six years of age may be better able to report on their dietary intake than previously suggested, at least for one main meal at school. Teacher-recorded intake provides a satisfactory estimate but with greater systematic deviation from the weighed intake. Parents were not able to report on their children’s school lunches consumed on the previous day. PMID:24047239

Annual Status Report (FY2017): Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 East Area Burial Grounds.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, Will E.; Mehta, S.; Nell, R. M.

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 East Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. The estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-SD-WM-TI-7301). The estimates are compared with performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements (DOE O 435.1 Chg 1,2 and companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 Chg 13 and DOE G 435.1-14). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-00635) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliance withmore » performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations, which indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives. Therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 Chg 1 is expected.« less

Annual Status Report (FY2017): Performance Assessment for the Disposal of Low-Level Waste in the 200 West Area Burial Grounds.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, Will E; Nell, R. M.; Mehta, S.

This annual review provides the projected dose estimates of radionuclide inventories disposed in the active 200 West Area Low-Level Waste Burial Grounds (LLBGs) since September 26, 1988. These estimates are calculated using the original dose methodology developed in the performance assessment (PA) analysis (WHC-EP-06451). These estimates are compared with performance objectives defined in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) requirements (DOE O 435.1 Chg 12 and its companion documents DOE M 435.1-1 Chg 13 and DOE G 435.1-14). All performance objectives are currently satisfied, and operational waste acceptance criteria (HNF-EP-00635) and waste acceptance practices continue to be sufficient to maintain compliancemore » with performance objectives. Inventory estimates and associated dose estimates from future waste disposal actions are unchanged from previous years’ evaluations, which indicate potential impacts well below performance objectives. Therefore, future compliance with DOE O 435.1 Chg 1 is expected.« less

Estimation of the Contribution of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4 in Repaglinide Metabolism by Human Liver Microsomes Under Various Buffer Conditions.

PubMed

Kudo, Toshiyuki; Goda, Hitomi; Yokosuka, Yuki; Tanaka, Ryo; Komatsu, Seina; Ito, Kiyomi

2017-09-01

We have previously reported that the microsomal activities of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4 largely depend on the buffer condition used in in vitro metabolic studies, with different patterns observed between the 2 isozymes. In the present study, therefore, the possibility of buffer condition dependence of the fraction metabolized by CYP2C8 (fm2C8) for repaglinide, a dual substrate of CYP2C8 and CYP3A4, was estimated using human liver microsomes under various buffer conditions. Montelukast and ketoconazole showed a potent and concentration-dependent inhibition of CYP2C8-mediated paclitaxel 6α-hydroxylation and CYP3A4-mediated triazolam α-hydroxylation, respectively, without dependence on the buffer condition. Repaglinide depletion was inhibited by both inhibitors, but the degree of inhibition depended on buffer conditions. Based on these results, the contribution of CYP2C8 in repaglinide metabolism was estimated to be larger than that of CYP3A4 under each buffer condition, and the fm2C8 value of 0.760, estimated in 50 mM phosphate buffer, was the closest to the value (0.801) estimated in our previous modeling analysis based on its concentration increase in a clinical drug interaction study. Researchers should be aware of the possibility of buffer condition affecting the estimated contribution of enzyme(s) in drug metabolism processes involving multiple enzymes. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative study on fractal analysis of interferometry images with application to tear film surface quality assessment.

PubMed

Szyperski, Piotr D

2018-06-01

The purpose of this research was to evaluate the applicability of the fractal dimension (FD) estimators to assess lateral shearing interferometric (LSI) measurements of tear film surface quality. Retrospective recordings of tear film measured with LSI were used: 69 from healthy subjects and 41 from patients diagnosed with dry eye syndrome. Five surface quality descriptors were considered, four based on FD and a previously reported descriptor operating in a spatial frequency domain (M 2 ), presenting temporal kinetics of post-blink tear film. A set of 12 regression parameters has been extracted and analyzed for classification purposes. The classifiers are assessed in terms of receiver operating characteristics and areas under their curves (AUC). Also, the computational loads are estimated. The maximum AUC of 82.4% was achieved for M 2 , closely followed by the binary box-counting (BBC) FD estimator with AUC=78.6%. For all descriptors, statistically significant differences between the subject groups were found (p<0.05). The BBC FD estimator was characterized with the highest empirical computational efficiency that was about 30% faster than that of M 2 , while that based on the differential box-counting exhibited the lowest efficiency (4.5 times slower than the best one). Concluding, FD estimators can be utilized for quantitative assessment of tear film kinetics. They provide a viable alternative to previously used spectral counter parameters, and at the same time allow higher computational efficiency.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Tbilisi, Georgia; Multiple Methods and Triangulation of Findings.

PubMed

Sulaberidze, Lela; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Chikovani, Ivdity; Shengelia, Natia; Tsereteli, Nino; Gotsadze, George

2016-01-01

An accurate estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) is critical to the success of HIV program planning and to monitoring of the response to epidemic as a whole, but is quite often missing. In this study, our aim was to estimate the population size of MSM in Tbilisi, Georgia and compare it with other estimates in the region. In the absence of a gold standard for estimating the population size of MSM, this study reports a range of methods, including network scale-up, mobile/web apps multiplier, service and unique object multiplier, network-based capture-recapture, Handcock RDS-based and Wisdom of Crowds methods. To apply all these methods, two surveys were conducted: first, a household survey among 1,015 adults from the general population, and second, a respondent driven sample of 210 MSM. We also conducted a literature review of MSM size estimation in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The median population size of MSM generated from all previously mentioned methods was estimated to be 5,100 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3,243~9,088). This corresponds to 1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.42% (95%CI: 0.9%~2.53%) of the adult male population in Tbilisi) fall within ranges reported in other Eastern European and Central Asian countries. These estimates can provide valuable information for country level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe, that our results will narrow the gap in data availability on the estimates of the population size of MSM in the region.

Association of Relative Backpack Weight with Reported Pain, Pain Sites, Medical Utilization, and Lost School Time in Children and Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Michael J.; White, Gregory L.; Moore, Donna L.

2007-01-01

Background: There is debate about a 10% versus 15% of body weight cutoff point for safe weight of school backpacks. Estimation of the cutoff may be affected by use of survey methods and failure to assess pain experienced while wearing a backpack. Previous research also suggests that younger students and females are more at risk for developing…

Can the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) Succeed in Mindanao Where Previous Agreements Failed?

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University , Singapore, argues that “small arms proliferation and a weak rule of law” will hurt...NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited CAN THE 2014...0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing

Rethinking the Buy vs. Lease Decision

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-01

Bargain Price Option. The lease contains an option to purchase the leased property at a bargain price. • Estimated Economic Life. The lease term is...new “purpose-built” (as opposed to commercially- acceptable) American-made ships. In 2002 the Air Force identified replacement of the aging fleet of...for replacement on an “unfunded priorities” list supplied to Congress the previous year. According to an Air Force report to Congress, net present

A Generalization of Pythagoras's Theorem and Application to Explanations of Variance Contributions in Linear Models. Research Report. ETS RR-14-18

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carlson, James E.

2014-01-01

Many aspects of the geometry of linear statistical models and least squares estimation are well known. Discussions of the geometry may be found in many sources. Some aspects of the geometry relating to the partitioning of variation that can be explained using a little-known theorem of Pappus and have not been discussed previously are the topic of…

The National Shipbuilding Research Program 1985 Ship Production Symposium Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

though there is some impact on hull construction progress because assembly is performed in shops which provide ideal climate, lighting, and access...with the production of parts is necessary in order to pay employees , report performance to budget and compute productivity. The latter requirement is...progress estimates in addition to the employees normal timecards. Even this can be eliminated by using completion of previously performed tasks as

Electron induced inelastic and ionization cross section for plasma modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, Pankaj; Mahato, Dibyendu; Kaur, Jaspreet; Antony, Bobby

2016-09-01

The present paper reports electron impact total inelastic and ionization cross section for silicon, germanium, and tin tetrahalides at energies varying from ionization threshold of the target to 5000 eV. These cross section data over a wide energy domain are very essential to understand the physico-chemical processes involved in various environments such as plasma modeling, semiconductor etching, atmospheric sciences, biological sciences, and radiation physics. However, the cross section data on the above mentioned molecules are scarce. In the present article, we report the computation of total inelastic cross section using spherical complex optical potential formalism and the estimation of ionization cross section through a semi-empirical method. The present ionization cross section result obtained for SiCl4 shows excellent agreement with previous measurements, while other molecules have not yet been investigated experimentally. Present results show more consistent behaviour than previous theoretical estimates. Besides cross sections, we have also studied the correlation of maximum ionization cross section with the square root of the ratio of polarizability to ionization potential for the molecules with known polarizabilities. A linear relation is observed between these quantities. This correlation is used to obtain approximate polarizability volumes for SiBr4, SiI4, GeCl4, GeBr4, and GeI4 molecules.

Genetic sharing and heritability of paediatric age of onset autoimmune diseases

PubMed Central

Li, Yun R.; Zhao, Sihai D.; Li, Jin; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Mohebnasab, Maede; Steel, Laura; Kobie, Julie; Abrams, Debra J.; Mentch, Frank D.; Glessner, Joseph T.; Guo, Yiran; Wei, Zhi; Connolly, John J.; Cardinale, Christopher J.; Bakay, Marina; Li, Dong; Maggadottir, S. Melkorka; Thomas, Kelly A.; Qui, Haijun; Chiavacci, Rosetta M.; Kim, Cecilia E.; Wang, Fengxiang; Snyder, James; Flatø, Berit; Førre, Øystein; Denson, Lee A.; Thompson, Susan D.; Becker, Mara L.; Guthery, Stephen L.; Latiano, Anna; Perez, Elena; Resnick, Elena; Strisciuglio, Caterina; Staiano, Annamaria; Miele, Erasmo; Silverberg, Mark S.; Lie, Benedicte A.; Punaro, Marilynn; Russell, Richard K.; Wilson, David C.; Dubinsky, Marla C.; Monos, Dimitri S.; Annese, Vito; Munro, Jane E.; Wise, Carol; Chapel, Helen; Cunningham-Rundles, Charlotte; Orange, Jordan S.; Behrens, Edward M.; Sullivan, Kathleen E.; Kugathasan, Subra; Griffiths, Anne M.; Satsangi, Jack; Grant, Struan F. A.; Sleiman, Patrick M. A.; Finkel, Terri H.; Polychronakos, Constantin; Baldassano, Robert N.; Luning Prak, Eline T.; Ellis, Justine A.; Li, Hongzhe; Keating, Brendan J.; Hakonarson, Hakon

2015-01-01

Autoimmune diseases (AIDs) are polygenic diseases affecting 7–10% of the population in the Western Hemisphere with few effective therapies. Here, we quantify the heritability of paediatric AIDs (pAIDs), including JIA, SLE, CEL, T1D, UC, CD, PS, SPA and CVID, attributable to common genomic variations (SNP-h2). SNP-h2 estimates are most significant for T1D (0.863±s.e. 0.07) and JIA (0.727±s.e. 0.037), more modest for UC (0.386±s.e. 0.04) and CD (0.454±0.025), largely consistent with population estimates and are generally greater than that previously reported by adult GWAS. On pairwise analysis, we observed that the diseases UC-CD (0.69±s.e. 0.07) and JIA-CVID (0.343±s.e. 0.13) are the most strongly correlated. Variations across the MHC strongly contribute to SNP-h2 in T1D and JIA, but does not significantly contribute to the pairwise rG. Together, our results partition contributions of shared versus disease-specific genomic variations to pAID heritability, identifying pAIDs with unexpected risk sharing, while recapitulating known associations between autoimmune diseases previously reported in adult cohorts. PMID:26450413

Estimates of complications of medical care in the adult US population.

PubMed

Villanueva, E V; Anderson, J N

2001-01-01

Total US population estimates of complications of medical care have relied on extrapolations of state-specific estimates. Generalizability is suspect because findings are limited by geographical location or time. We describe the relationship between the annual prevalence of complications of medical care (CM) and socio-demographic characteristics in the adult US population. We used data from the National Health Interview Surveys, annual nationwide surveys of the resident, civilian, noninstitutionalized population of the United States. The main outcome of interest was self-reported conditions from CMs (ICD-9 996-999) and activity limitations that arise from such events. Univariate estimates and multivariably adjusted models accounting for selected socio-demographic characteristics and health status were derived. A total of 618,167 reports of conditions from 313,438 subjects 18 years and older from 1987 to 1994 were examined. In 1987, 830,386 adults reported complications of medical care, increasing by about 40% to 1,174,089 adults in 1994. Based on an extrapolation to the US adult population, rates increased by 25% from 558 to 678 per 100,000 during the same period. One-third reported onset a year prior to the interview; two-thirds visited a doctor six months prior; half experienced limitation in major activities; a quarter reported limitation in personal care activities. In the two weeks preceding the interview, complications of medical care caused an average of 1.72 days of restricted activity, 0.79 days spent in bed, and 0.58 days of work lost. Race modified the age-specific risk of these complications. Complications of medical care impose heavier morbidity than previously considered with some indication that socio-demographic variables modify the risk for injuries.

Clarifying springtime temperature reconstructions of the medieval period by gap-filling the cherry blossom phenological data series at Kyoto, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aono, Yasuyuki; Saito, Shizuka

2010-03-01

We investigated documents and diaries from the ninth to the fourteenth centuries to supplement the phenological data series of the flowering of Japanese cherry ( Prunus jamasakura) in Kyoto, Japan, to improve and fill gaps in temperature estimates based on previously reported phenological data. We then reconstructed a nearly continuous series of March mean temperatures based on 224 years of cherry flowering data, including 51 years of previously unused data, to clarify springtime climate changes. We also attempted to estimate cherry full-flowering dates from phenological records of other deciduous species, adding further data for 6 years in the tenth and eleventh centuries by using the flowering phenology of Japanese wisteria ( Wisteria floribunda). The reconstructed tenth century March mean temperatures were around 7°C, indicating warmer conditions than at present. Temperatures then fell until the 1180s, recovered gradually until the 1310s, and then declined again in the mid-fourteenth century.

The impact of strain-specific immunity on Lyme disease incidence is spatially heterogeneous.

PubMed

Khatchikian, Camilo E; Nadelman, Robert B; Nowakowski, John; Schwartz, Ira; Wormser, Gary P; Brisson, Dustin

2017-12-01

Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi, is the most common tick-borne infection in the US. Recent studies have demonstrated that the incidence of human Lyme disease would have been even greater were it not for the presence of strain-specific immunity, which protects previously infected patients against subsequent infections by the same B. burgdorferi strain. Here, spatial heterogeneity is incorporated into epidemiological models to accurately estimate the impact of strain-specific immunity on human Lyme disease incidence. The estimated reduction in the number of Lyme disease cases is greater in epidemiologic models that explicitly include the spatial distribution of Lyme disease cases reported at the county level than those that utilize nationwide data. strain-specific immunity has the greatest epidemiologic impact in geographic areas with the highest Lyme disease incidence due to the greater proportion of people that have been previously infected and have developed strain-specific immunity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary offset of alluvial fan surfaces along the Central Sierra Madre Fault, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burgette, Reed J.; Hanson, Austin; Scharer, Katherine M.; Midttun, Nikolas

2016-01-01

The Sierra Madre Fault is a reverse fault system along the southern flank of the San Gabriel Mountains near Los Angeles, California. This study focuses on the Central Sierra Madre Fault (CSMF) in an effort to provide numeric dating on surfaces with ages previously estimated from soil development alone. We have refined previous geomorphic mapping conducted in the western portion of the CSMF near Pasadena, CA, with the aid of new lidar data. This progress report focuses on our geochronology strategy employed in collecting samples and interpreting data to determine a robust suite of terrace surface ages. Sample sites for terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and luminescence dating techniques were selected to be redundant and to be validated through relative geomorphic relationships between inset terrace levels. Additional sample sites were selected to evaluate the post-abandonment histories of terrace surfaces. We will combine lidar-derived displacement data with surface ages to estimate slip rates for the CSMF.

Clarifying springtime temperature reconstructions of the medieval period by gap-filling the cherry blossom phenological data series at Kyoto, Japan.

PubMed

Aono, Yasuyuki; Saito, Shizuka

2010-03-01

We investigated documents and diaries from the ninth to the fourteenth centuries to supplement the phenological data series of the flowering of Japanese cherry (Prunus jamasakura) in Kyoto, Japan, to improve and fill gaps in temperature estimates based on previously reported phenological data. We then reconstructed a nearly continuous series of March mean temperatures based on 224 years of cherry flowering data, including 51 years of previously unused data, to clarify springtime climate changes. We also attempted to estimate cherry full-flowering dates from phenological records of other deciduous species, adding further data for 6 years in the tenth and eleventh centuries by using the flowering phenology of Japanese wisteria (Wisteria floribunda). The reconstructed tenth century March mean temperatures were around 7 degrees C, indicating warmer conditions than at present. Temperatures then fell until the 1180s, recovered gradually until the 1310s, and then declined again in the mid-fourteenth century.

Decreasing initial telomere length in humans intergenerationally understates age-associated telomere shortening

PubMed Central

Holohan, Brody; De Meyer, Tim; Batten, Kimberly; Mangino, Massimo; Hunt, Steven C; Bekaert, Sofie; De Buyzere, Marc L; Rietzschel, Ernst R; Spector, Tim D; Wright, Woodring E; Shay, Jerry W

2015-01-01

Telomere length shortens with aging, and short telomeres have been linked to a wide variety of pathologies. Previous studies suggested a discrepancy in age-associated telomere shortening rate estimated by cross-sectional studies versus the rate measured in longitudinal studies, indicating a potential bias in cross-sectional estimates. Intergenerational changes in initial telomere length, such as that predicted by the previously described effect of a father’s age at birth of his offspring (FAB), could explain the discrepancy in shortening rate measurements. We evaluated whether changes occur in initial telomere length over multiple generations in three large datasets and identified paternal birth year (PBY) as a variable that reconciles the difference between longitudinal and cross-sectional measurements. We also clarify the association between FAB and offspring telomere length, demonstrating that this effect is substantially larger than reported in the past. These results indicate the presence of a downward secular trend in telomere length at birth over generational time with potential public health implications. PMID:25952108

Internal noise estimates correlate with autistic traits.

PubMed

Vilidaite, Greta; Yu, Miaomiao; Baker, Daniel H

2017-08-01

Previous neuroimaging research has reported increased internal (neural) noise in sensory systems of autistic individuals. However, it is unclear if this difference has behavioural or perceptual consequences, as previous attempts at measuring internal noise in ASD psychophysically have been indirect. Here, we use a "gold standard" psychophysical double-pass paradigm to investigate the relationship between internal noise and autistic traits in the neurotypical population (n = 43). We measured internal noise in three tasks (contrast perception, facial expression intensity perception, and number summation) to estimate a global internal noise factor using principal components analysis. This global internal noise was positively correlated with autistic traits (r s  = 0.32, P = 0.035). This suggests that increased internal noise is associated with the ASD phenotype even in subclinical populations. The finding is discussed in relation to the neural and genetic basis of internal noise in ASD. Autism Res 2017, 10: 1384-1391. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cost of improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) programme: an analysis of cost of session, treatment and recovery in selected Primary Care Trusts in the East of England region.

PubMed

Radhakrishnan, Muralikrishnan; Hammond, Geoffrey; Jones, Peter B; Watson, Alison; McMillan-Shields, Fiona; Lafortune, Louise

2013-01-01

Recent literature on Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) has reported on improvements in clinical outcomes, changes in employment status and the concept of recovery attributable to IAPT treatment, but not on the costs of the programme. This article reports the costs associated with a single session, completed course of treatment and recovery for four treatment courses (i.e., remaining in low or high intensity treatment, stepping up or down) in IAPT services in 5 East of England region Primary Care Trusts. Costs were estimated using treatment activity data and gross financial information, along with assumptions about how these financial data could be broken down. The estimated average cost of a high intensity session was £177 and the average cost for a low intensity session was £99. The average cost of treatment was £493 (low intensity), £1416 (high intensity), £699 (stepped down), £1514 (stepped up) and £877 (All). The cost per recovered patient was £1043 (low intensity), £2895 (high intensity), £1653 (stepped down), £2914 (stepped up) and £1766 (All). Sensitivity analysis revealed that the costs are sensitive to cost ratio assumptions, indicating that inaccurate ratios are likely to influence overall estimates. Results indicate the cost per session exceeds previously reported estimates, but cost of treatment is only marginally higher. The current cost estimates are supportive of the originally proposed IAPT model on cost-benefit grounds. The study also provides a framework to estimate costs using financial data, especially when programmes have block contract arrangements. Replication and additional analyses along with evidence-based discussion regarding alternative, cost-effective methods of intervention is recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Pharmacovigilance in Portugal: Activity of the Central Pharmacovigilance Unit].

PubMed

Batel-Marques, Francisco; Mendes, Diogo; Alves, Carlos; Penedones, Ana; Dias, Patricia; Martins, Angelina; Santiago, Luiz Miguel; Fontes-Ribeiro, Carlos; Caramona, Margarida; Macedo, Tice

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to characterize the spontaneous reports of adverse events that were received by the Central Portugal Regional Pharmacovigilance Unit. Spontaneous reports received between 01/2001 and 12/2013 were considered. The annual reporting ratios were estimated. The cases were characterized according to their seriousness, previous description, causality assessment, origin and professional group of the reporter, type of adverse event and pharmacotherapeutic groups of the suspected drugs most frequently reported. The Pharmacovigilance Unit received 2408 reports that contained 5749 adverse events. In 2013, the reporting rate was estimated at 171 reports per million inhabitants. Fifty-five percent of the reports were assessed as serious. Ninety percent of the cases were assessed as being at least possibly related with the suspected drug. The suspected drugs most frequently reported were anti-infectives for systemic use (n = 809, 33%). The most frequently reported adverse events were "Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders" (n = 1139, 20%). There were 154 (6.4%) reports resulting in life-threatening situations and/or death, and 88 (3.6%) containing at least one adverse event assessed as serious, unknown and certain or probable. The present results are in line with those found in other studies, namely the seriousness and type of the adverse events and the pharmacotherapeutic groups of the most frequently reported suspected drugs. In the last years, the Central Portugal Regional Pharmacovigilance Unit has registered a growth in the reporting rate in general, as well as an increase in the reporting of unknown and serious adverse drug reactions.

Cost of Dengue Vector Control Activities in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Packierisamy, P. Raviwharmman; Ng, Chiu-Wan; Dahlui, Maznah; Inbaraj, Jonathan; Balan, Venugopalan K.; Halasa, Yara A.; Shepard, Donald S.

2015-01-01

Dengue fever, an arbovirus disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has recently spread rapidly, especially in the tropical countries of the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions. It is endemic in Malaysia, with an annual average of 37,937 reported dengue cases from 2007 to 2012. This study measured the overall economic impact of dengue in Malaysia, and estimated the costs of dengue prevention. In 2010, Malaysia spent US$73.5 million or 0.03% of the country's GDP on its National Dengue Vector Control Program. This spending represented US$1,591 per reported dengue case and US$2.68 per capita population. Most (92.2%) of this spending occurred in districts, primarily for fogging. A previous paper estimated the annual cost of dengue illness in the country at US$102.2 million. Thus, the inclusion of preventive activities increases the substantial estimated cost of dengue to US$175.7 million, or 72% above illness costs alone. If innovative technologies for dengue vector control prove efficacious, and a dengue vaccine was introduced, substantial existing spending could be rechanneled to fund them. PMID:26416116

Cost of Dengue Vector Control Activities in Malaysia.

PubMed

Packierisamy, P Raviwharmman; Ng, Chiu-Wan; Dahlui, Maznah; Inbaraj, Jonathan; Balan, Venugopalan K; Halasa, Yara A; Shepard, Donald S

2015-11-01

Dengue fever, an arbovirus disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, has recently spread rapidly, especially in the tropical countries of the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions. It is endemic in Malaysia, with an annual average of 37,937 reported dengue cases from 2007 to 2012. This study measured the overall economic impact of dengue in Malaysia, and estimated the costs of dengue prevention. In 2010, Malaysia spent US$73.5 million or 0.03% of the country's GDP on its National Dengue Vector Control Program. This spending represented US$1,591 per reported dengue case and US$2.68 per capita population. Most (92.2%) of this spending occurred in districts, primarily for fogging. A previous paper estimated the annual cost of dengue illness in the country at US$102.2 million. Thus, the inclusion of preventive activities increases the substantial estimated cost of dengue to US$175.7 million, or 72% above illness costs alone. If innovative technologies for dengue vector control prove efficacious, and a dengue vaccine was introduced, substantial existing spending could be rechanneled to fund them. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Evaluation of the Williams-type spring wheat model in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The Williams type model, developed similarly to previous models of C.V.D. Williams, uses monthly temperature and precipitation data as well as soil and topological variables to predict the yield of the spring wheat crop. The models are statistically developed using the regression technique. Eight model characteristics are examined in the evaluation of the model. Evaluation is at the crop reporting district level, the state level and for the entire region. A ten year bootstrap test was the basis of the statistical evaluation. The accuracy and current indication of modeled yield reliability could show improvement. There is great variability in the bias measured over the districts, but there is a slight overall positive bias. The model estimates for the east central crop reporting district in Minnesota are not accurate. The estimate of yield for 1974 were inaccurate for all of the models.

Aqueous infrared carboxylate absorbances: Aliphatic di-acids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cabaniss, S.E.; Leenheer, J.A.; McVey, I.F.

1998-01-01

Aqueous attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectra of 18 aliphatic di-carboxylic acids are reported as a function of pH. The spectra show isosbestic points and intensity changes which indicate that Beer's law is obeyed, and peak frequencies lie within previously reported ranges for aqueous carboxylates and pure carboxylic acids. Intensity sharing from the symmetric carboxylate stretch is evident in many cases, so that bands which are nominally due to alkyl groups show increased intensity at higher pH. The asymmetric stretch of the HA- species is linearly related to the microscopic acidity constant of the H2A species, with ??pK 2 intervening atoms). The results suggest that aqueous ATR-FTIR may be able to estimate 'intrinsic' pKa values of carboxylic acids, in addition to providing quantitative estimates of ionization. ?? 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospective Associations of Actual and Perceived Descriptive Norms with Drinking Among Emerging Adults.

PubMed

Simons-Morton, Bruce; Haynie, Denise; Bible, Joe; Liu, Danping

2018-02-05

Descriptive norms are commonly associated with participant drinking. However, study participants may incorrectly perceive that their peers drink about the same amount as they do, which would bias estimates of drinking homogeneity. This research examined the magnitude of associations between emerging adults' reports of their own drinking and peer drinking measured the previous year by measures of (1) participants' perceptions of friends' drinking; and (2) actual drinking reported by nominated peers. The data are from annual surveys conducted in 2014 and 2015, Waves 4 and 5 (the first 2 years after high school) of 7 annual assessments as part of the NEXT Generation Health Study (n = 323). Associations of participant alcohol use with perceived friend use (five closest, closest male, and closest female friends), and with actual peer use. Logistic regression analyses estimated the magnitudes of prospective associations between each measure of peer drinking at W4 and participant drinking at W5.

Doubly charged coronene clusters—Much smaller than previously observed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoodi-Darian, Masoomeh; Raggl, Stefan; Renzler, Michael; Goulart, Marcelo; Huber, Stefan E.; Mauracher, Andreas; Scheier, Paul; Echt, Olof

2018-05-01

The smallest doubly charged coronene cluster ions reported so far, Cor152+, were produced by charge exchange between bare coronene clusters and He2+ [H. A. B. Johansson et al., Phys. Rev. A 84, 043201 (2011)]. These dications are at least five times larger than the estimated Rayleigh limit, i.e., the size at which the activation barrier for charge separation vanishes. Such a large discrepancy is unheard of for doubly charged atomic or molecular clusters. Here we report the mass spectrometric observation of doubly charged coronene trimers, produced by electron ionization of helium nanodroplets doped with coronene. The observation implies that Cor32+ features a non-zero fission barrier too large to overcome under the present experimental conditions. The height of the barriers for the dimer and trimer has been estimated by means of density functional theory calculations. A sizeable barrier for the trimer has been revealed in agreement with the experimental findings.

Earth-atmosphere system and surface reflectivities in arid regions from LANDSAT multispectral scanner measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Fraser, R. S.

1976-01-01

Programs for computing atmospheric transmission and scattering solar radiation were used to compute the ratios of the Earth-atmosphere system (space) directional reflectivities in the vertical direction to the surface reflectivity, for the four bands of the LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS). These ratios are presented as graphs for two water vapor levels, as a function of the surface reflectivity, for various sun elevation angles. Space directional reflectivities in the vertical direction are reported for selected arid regions in Asia, Africa and Central America from the spectral radiance levels measured by the LANDSAT MSS. From these space reflectivities, surface vertical reflectivities were computed applying the pertinent graphs. These surface reflectivities were used to estimate the surface albedo for the entire solar spectrum. The estimated albedos are in the range 0.34-0.52, higher than the values reported by most previous researchers from space measurements, but are consistent with laboratory measurements.

Model Package Report: Hanford Soil Inventory Model SIM v.2 Build 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, Will E.; Zaher, U.; Mehta, S.

The Hanford Soil Inventory Model (SIM) is a tool for the estimation of inventory of contaminants that were released to soil from liquid discharges during the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site operations. This model package report documents the construction and development of a second version of SIM (SIM-v2) to support the needs of Hanford Site Composite Analysis. The SIM-v2 is implemented using GoldSim Pro®1 software with a new model architecture that preserves the uncertainty in inventory estimates while reducing the computational burden (compared to the previous version) and allowing more traceability and transparency in calculation methodology. The calculation architecturemore » is designed in such a manner that future updates to the waste stream composition along with addition or deletion of waste sites can be performed with relative ease. In addition, the new computational platform allows for continued hardware upgrade.« less

Glass Property Data and Models for Estimating High-Level Waste Glass Volume

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vienna, John D.; Fluegel, Alexander; Kim, Dong-Sang

2009-10-05

This report describes recent efforts to develop glass property models that can be used to help estimate the volume of high-level waste (HLW) glass that will result from vitrification of Hanford tank waste. The compositions of acceptable and processable HLW glasses need to be optimized to minimize the waste-form volume and, hence, to save cost. A database of properties and associated compositions for simulated waste glasses was collected for developing property-composition models. This database, although not comprehensive, represents a large fraction of data on waste-glass compositions and properties that were available at the time of this report. Glass property-composition modelsmore » were fit to subsets of the database for several key glass properties. These models apply to a significantly broader composition space than those previously publised. These models should be considered for interim use in calculating properties of Hanford waste glasses.« less

Toxic exposure in America: estimating fetal and infant health outcomes from 14 years of TRI reporting.

PubMed

Agarwal, Nikhil; Banternghansa, Chanont; Bui, Linda T M

2010-07-01

We examine the effect of exposure to a set of toxic pollutants that are tracked by the Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) from manufacturing facilities on county-level infant and fetal mortality rates in the United States between 1989 and 2002. Unlike previous studies, we control for toxic pollution from both mobile sources and non-TRI reporting facilities. We find significant adverse effects of toxic air pollution concentrations on infant mortality rates. Within toxic air pollutants we find that releases of carcinogens are particularly problematic for infant health outcomes. We estimate that the average county-level decreases in various categories of TRI concentrations saved in excess of 13,800 infant lives from 1989 to 2002. Using the low end of the range for the value of a statistical life that is typically used by the EPA of $1.8M, the savings in lives would be valued at approximately $25B.

Assessment of hemoglobin responsiveness to epoetin alfa in patients on hemodialysis using a population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Wu, Liviawati; Mould, Diane R; Perez Ruixo, Juan Jose; Doshi, Sameer

2015-10-01

A population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model describing the effect of epoetin alfa on hemoglobin (Hb) response in hemodialysis patients was developed. Epoetin alfa pharmacokinetics was described using a linear 2-compartment model. PK parameter estimates were similar to previously reported values. A maturation-structured cytokinetic model consisting of 5 compartments linked in a catenary fashion by first-order cell transfer rates following a zero-order input process described the Hb time course. The PD model described 2 subpopulations, one whose Hb response reflected epoetin alfa dosing and a second whose response was unrelated to epoetin alfa dosing. Parameter estimates from the PK/PD model were physiologically reasonable and consistent with published reports. Numerical and visual predictive checks using data from 2 studies were performed. The PK and PD of epoetin alfa were well described by the model. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Large capacity temporary visual memory

PubMed Central

Endress, Ansgar D.; Potter, Mary C.

2014-01-01

Visual working memory (WM) capacity is thought to be limited to three or four items. However, many cognitive activities seem to require larger temporary memory stores. Here, we provide evidence for a temporary memory store with much larger capacity than past WM capacity estimates. Further, based on previous WM research, we show that a single factor — proactive interference — is sufficient to bring capacity estimates down to the range of previous WM capacity estimates. Participants saw a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of 5 to 21 pictures of familiar objects or words presented at rates of 4/s or 8/s, respectively, and thus too fast for strategies such as rehearsal. Recognition memory was tested with a single probe item. When new items were used on all trials, no fixed memory capacities were observed, with estimates of up to 9.1 retained pictures for 21-item lists, and up to 30.0 retained pictures for 100-item lists, and no clear upper bound to how many items could be retained. Further, memory items were not stored in a temporally stable form of memory, but decayed almost completely after a few minutes. In contrast, when, as in most WM experiments, a small set of items was reused across all trials, thus creating proactive interference among items, capacity remained in the range reported in previous WM experiments. These results show that humans have a large-capacity temporary memory store in the absence of proactive interference, and raise the question of whether temporary memory in everyday cognitive processing is severely limited as in WM experiments, or has the much larger capacity found in the present experiments. PMID:23937181

Prevalence of BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms in West Africans.

PubMed

Chokkalingam, A P; Yeboah, E D; Demarzo, A; Netto, G; Yu, K; Biritwum, R B; Tettey, Y; Adjei, A; Jadallah, S; Li, Y; Chu, L W; Chia, D; Niwa, S; Partin, A; Thompson, I M; Roehrborn, C; Hoover, R N; Hsing, A W

2012-06-01

BPH and lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are very common among older men in Western countries. However, the prevalence of these two conditions in the developing countries is less clear. We assessed the age-standardized prevalence of BPH and/or LUTS among West Africans in a probability sample of 950 men aged 50-74 in Accra, Ghana, with no evidence of biopsy-confirmed prostate cancer after screening with PSA and digital rectal examination (DRE). Information on LUTS was based on self-reports of the International Prostate Symptom Score (IPSS). BPH was estimated using DRE, PSA levels and imputed prostate volume. The prevalence of DRE-detected enlarged prostate was 62.3%, while that of PSA≥1.5 ng ml(-1) (an estimate of prostate volume ≥ 30 cm(3)) was 35.3%. The prevalence of moderate-to-severe LUTS (IPSS≥8) was 19.9%. The prevalence of IPSS≥8 and an enlarged prostate on DRE was 13.3%. Although there is no universally agreed-upon definition of BPH/LUTS, making comparisons across populations difficult, BPH and/or LUTS appear to be quite common among older Ghanaian men. We found that after age standardization, the prevalence of DRE-detected enlarged prostate in Ghanaian men is higher than previously reported for American men, but the prevalence of LUTS was lower than previously reported for African Americans. Further studies are needed to confirm these findings and identify the risk factors for BPH in both Africans and African Americans.

Consistency in adult reporting of adverse childhood experiences.

PubMed

Colman, I; Kingsbury, M; Garad, Y; Zeng, Y; Naicker, K; Patten, S; Jones, P B; Wild, T C; Thompson, A H

2016-02-01

Many studies have used retrospective reports to assess the long-term consequences of early life stress. However, current individual characteristics and experiences may bias the recall of these reports. In particular, depressed mood may increase the likelihood of recall of negative experiences. The aim of the study was to assess whether specific factors are associated with consistency in the reporting of childhood adverse experiences. The sample comprised 7466 adults from Canada's National Population Health Survey who had reported on seven childhood adverse experiences in 1994/1995 and 2006/2007. Logistic regression was used to explore differences between those who consistently reported adverse experiences and those whose reports were inconsistent. Among those retrospectively reporting on childhood traumatic experiences in 1994/1995 and 2006/2007, 39% were inconsistent in their reports of these experiences. The development of depression, increasing levels of psychological distress, as well as increasing work and chronic stress were associated with an increasing likelihood of reporting a childhood adverse experience in 2006/2007 that had not been previously reported. Increases in mastery were associated with reduced likelihood of new reporting of a childhood adverse experience in 2006/2007. The development of depression and increases in chronic stress and psychological distress were also associated with reduced likelihood of 'forgetting' a previously reported event. Concurrent mental health factors may influence the reporting of traumatic childhood experiences. Studies that use retrospective reporting to estimate associations between childhood adversity and adult outcomes associated with mental health may be biased.

Arctic Climate during Eocene Hyperthermals: Wet Summers on Ellesmere Island?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, D. R.; West, C. K.; Basinger, J. F.

2012-12-01

Previous work has shown that during the late Paleocene to middle Eocene, mesothermal conditions (i.e., MAT ~12-15° C) and high precipitation (MAP > 150cm/yr) characterized Arctic climates - an Arctic rain forest. Recent analyses of Arctic Eocene wood stable isotope chemistry are consistent with the annual and seasonal temperature estimates from leaf physiognomy and nearest living relative analogy from fossil plants, including the lack of freezing winters, but is interpreted as showing that there was a summer peak in precipitation - modern analogs are best sought on the summer-wet east coasts (e.g., China, Japan, South Korea) not the winter-wet west coasts of present-day northern temperate continents (e.g., Pacific northwest of North America). Highly seasonal 'monsoon-type' summer-wet precipitation regimes (i.e., summer precip./winter precip. > 3.0) seem to characterize Eocene hyperthermal conditions in several regions of the earth, including the Arctic and Antarctic, based on both climate model sensitivity experiments and the paleoclimate proxy evidence. The leaf physiognomy proxy previously applied to estimate Arctic Paleogene precipitation was leaf area analysis (LAA), a correlation between mean leaf size in woody dicot vegetation and annual precipitation. New data from modern monsoonal sites, however demonstrates that for deciduous-dicot dominated vegetation, summer precipitation determines mean leaf size, not annual totals, and therefore that under markedly seasonal precipitation and/or light regimes that summer precipitation is being estimated using LAA. Presented here is a new analysis of a leaf macrofloras from 3 separate florules of the Margaret Formation (Split Lake, Stenkul Fiord and Strathcona Fiord) from Ellesmere Island that are placed stratigraphically as early Eocene, and likely fall within Eocene thermal maximum 1 (ETM1; = the 'PETM') or ETM2. These floras are each characterized by a mix of large-leafed and small-leafed dicot taxa, with overall mean leaf size across all leaf morphotypes comparable to that previously reported for late Paleocene to middle Eocene floras from Ellesmere and Axel Heiberg islands of Nunavut. Applying the conventional leaf area analysis to the putatively ETM1 floras yielded estimates of mean annual precipitation 100-200cm/yr, consistent with the previous reports for the late Paleocene to middle Eocene. CLAMP analysis applied to these floras yields growing season precipitation comparable to the annual precipitation estimate from leaf area analysis. These data are interpreted as reflecting high summer precipitation in the Arctic during the late Paleocene to middle Eocene, including ETM1, as precipitation in the dark polar winter months will have had no effect on leaf size while the trees were dormant, corroborating the results from Eocene wood chemistry. High summer precipitation (i.e., light-season = wettest season) in the Eocene Arctic during hyperthermals would have contributed to regional warmth.

Refining new-physics searches in B→Dτν with lattice QCD.

PubMed

Bailey, Jon A; Bazavov, A; Bernard, C; Bouchard, C M; Detar, C; Du, Daping; El-Khadra, A X; Foley, J; Freeland, E D; Gámiz, E; Gottlieb, Steven; Heller, U M; Kim, Jongjeong; Kronfeld, A S; Laiho, J; Levkova, L; Mackenzie, P B; Meurice, Y; Neil, E T; Oktay, M B; Qiu, Si-Wei; Simone, J N; Sugar, R; Toussaint, D; Van de Water, R S; Zhou, Ran

2012-08-17

The semileptonic decay channel B→Dτν is sensitive to the presence of a scalar current, such as that mediated by a charged-Higgs boson. Recently, the BABAR experiment reported the first observation of the exclusive semileptonic decay B→Dτ(-)ν, finding an approximately 2σ disagreement with the standard-model prediction for the ratio R(D)=BR(B→Dτν)/BR(B→Dℓν), where ℓ = e,μ. We compute this ratio of branching fractions using hadronic form factors computed in unquenched lattice QCD and obtain R(D)=0.316(12)(7), where the errors are statistical and total systematic, respectively. This result is the first standard-model calculation of R(D) from ab initio full QCD. Its error is smaller than that of previous estimates, primarily due to the reduced uncertainty in the scalar form factor f(0)(q(2)). Our determination of R(D) is approximately 1σ higher than previous estimates and, thus, reduces the tension with experiment. We also compute R(D) in models with electrically charged scalar exchange, such as the type-II two-Higgs-doublet model. Once again, our result is consistent with, but approximately 1σ higher than, previous estimates for phenomenologically relevant values of the scalar coupling in the type-II model. As a by-product of our calculation, we also present the standard-model prediction for the longitudinal-polarization ratio P(L)(D)=0.325(4)(3).

Investigation of a geodesy coexperiment to the Gravity Probe B relativity gyroscope program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everitt, C. W. F.; Parkinson, Bradford W.; Tapley, Mark

1993-01-01

Geodesy is the science of measuring the gravitational field of and positions on the Earth. Estimation of the gravitational field via gravitation gradiometry, the measurement of variations in the direction and magnitude of gravitation with respect to position, is this dissertation's focus. Gravity Probe B (GP-B) is a Stanford satellite experiment in gravitational physics. GP-B will measure the precession the rotating Earth causes on the space time around it by observing the precessions of four gyroscopes in a circular, polar, drag-free orbit at 650 km altitude. The gyroscopes are nearly perfect niobium-coated spheres of quartz, operating at 1.8 K to permit observations with extremely low thermal noise. The permissible gyroscope drift rate is miniscule, so the torques on the gyros must be tiny. A drag-free control system, by canceling accelerations caused by nongravitational forces, minimizes the support forces and hence torques. The GP-B system offers two main possibilities for geodesy. One is as a drag-free satellite to be used in trajectory-based estimates of the Earth's gravity field. We described calculations involving that approach in our previous reports, including comparison of laser only, GPS only, and combined tracking and a preliminary estimate of the possibility of estimating relativistic effects on the orbit. The second possibility is gradiometry. This technique has received a more cursory examination in previous reports, so we concentrate on it here. We explore the feasibility of using the residual suspension forces centering the GP-B gyros as gradiometer signals for geodesy. The objective of this work is a statistical prediction of the formal uncertainty in an estimate of the Earth's gravitation field using data from GP-B. We perform an instrument analysis and apply two mathematical techniques to predict uncertainty. One is an analytical approach using a flat-Earth approximation to predict geopotential information quality as a function of spatial wavelength. The second estimates the covariance matrix arising in a least-squares estimate of a spherical harmonic representation of the geopotential using GP-B gradiometer data. The results show that the GP-B data set can be used to create a consistent estimate of the geopotential up to spherical harmonic degree and order 60. The formal uncertainty of all coefficients between degrees 5 and 50 is reduced by factors of up to 30 over current satellite-only estimates and up to 7 over estimates which include surface data. The primary conclusion resulting from this study is that the gravitation gradiometer geodesy coexperiment to GP-B is both feasible and attractive.

Model-based estimation with boundary side information or boundary regularization [cardiac emission CT].

PubMed

Chiao, P C; Rogers, W L; Fessler, J A; Clinthorne, N H; Hero, A O

1994-01-01

The authors have previously developed a model-based strategy for joint estimation of myocardial perfusion and boundaries using ECT (emission computed tomography). They have also reported difficulties with boundary estimation in low contrast and low count rate situations. Here they propose using boundary side information (obtainable from high resolution MRI and CT images) or boundary regularization to improve both perfusion and boundary estimation in these situations. To fuse boundary side information into the emission measurements, the authors formulate a joint log-likelihood function to include auxiliary boundary measurements as well as ECT projection measurements. In addition, they introduce registration parameters to align auxiliary boundary measurements with ECT measurements and jointly estimate these parameters with other parameters of interest from the composite measurements. In simulated PET O-15 water myocardial perfusion studies using a simplified model, the authors show that the joint estimation improves perfusion estimation performance and gives boundary alignment accuracy of <0.5 mm even at 0.2 million counts. They implement boundary regularization through formulating a penalized log-likelihood function. They also demonstrate in simulations that simultaneous regularization of the epicardial boundary and myocardial thickness gives comparable perfusion estimation accuracy with the use of boundary side information.

Thoracic respiratory motion estimation from MRI using a statistical model and a 2-D image navigator.

PubMed

King, A P; Buerger, C; Tsoumpas, C; Marsden, P K; Schaeffter, T

2012-01-01

Respiratory motion models have potential application for estimating and correcting the effects of motion in a wide range of applications, for example in PET-MR imaging. Given that motion cycles caused by breathing are only approximately repeatable, an important quality of such models is their ability to capture and estimate the intra- and inter-cycle variability of the motion. In this paper we propose and describe a technique for free-form nonrigid respiratory motion correction in the thorax. Our model is based on a principal component analysis of the motion states encountered during different breathing patterns, and is formed from motion estimates made from dynamic 3-D MRI data. We apply our model using a data-driven technique based on a 2-D MRI image navigator. Unlike most previously reported work in the literature, our approach is able to capture both intra- and inter-cycle motion variability. In addition, the 2-D image navigator can be used to estimate how applicable the current motion model is, and hence report when more imaging data is required to update the model. We also use the motion model to decide on the best positioning for the image navigator. We validate our approach using MRI data acquired from 10 volunteers and demonstrate improvements of up to 40.5% over other reported motion modelling approaches, which corresponds to 61% of the overall respiratory motion present. Finally we demonstrate one potential application of our technique: MRI-based motion correction of real-time PET data for simultaneous PET-MRI acquisition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Misclassification of survey responses and black-white disparity in mammography use, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1995-2006.

PubMed

Njai, Rashid; Siegel, Paul Z; Miller, Jacqueline W; Liao, Youlian

2011-05-01

The validity of self-reported data for mammography differ by race. We assessed the effect of racial differences in the validity of age-adjusted, self-reported mammography use estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1995 through 2006 to determine whether misclassification (inaccurate survey question response) may have obscured actual racial disparities. We adjusted BRFSS mammography use data for age by using 2000 census estimates and for misclassification by using the following formula: (estimated prevalence - 1 + specificity) / (sensitivity + specificity - 1). We used values reported in the literature for the formula (sensitivity = 0.97 for both black and white women, specificity = 0.49 and 0.62, respectively, for black and white women). After adjustment for misclassification, the percentage of women aged 40 years or older in 1995 who reported receiving a mammogram during the previous 2 years was 54% among white women and 41% among black women, compared with 70% among both white and black women after adjustment for age only. In 2006, the percentage after adjustment for misclassification was 65% among white women and 59% among black women compared with 77% among white women and 78% among black women after adjustment for age only. Self-reported data overestimate mammography use - more so for black women than for white women. After adjustment for respondent misclassification, neither white women nor black women had attained the Healthy People 2010 objective (≥ 70%) by 2006, and a disparity between white and black women emerged.

Daily Associations among Anger Experience and Intimate Partner Aggression within Aggressive and Nonaggressive Community Couples

PubMed Central

Crane, Cory A.; Testa, Maria

2014-01-01

Anger is an empirically established precipitant to aggressive responding toward intimate partners. The current investigation examined the effects of anger, as experienced by both partners, as well as gender and previous aggression, on in vivo intimate partner aggression using a prospective daily diary methodology. Participants (N = 118 couples) individually provided 56 consecutive, daily reports of affective experience and partner aggression. Multilevel models were estimated using the Actor Partner Interdependence Model framework to analyze the daily associations between anger and partner aggression perpetration among male and female participants as moderated by aggression history. Results revealed that both Actor and Partner anger were generally associated with subsequently reported daily conflict. Further, increases in daily Partner anger were associated with corresponding increases in partner aggression among females who reported high anger and males, regardless of their own anger experience. Increases in Actor anger were associated with increases in daily partner aggression only among previously aggressive females. Previously aggressive males and females consistently reported greater perpetration than their nonaggressive counterparts on days of high Actor anger experience. Results emphasize the importance of both Actor and Partner factors in partner aggression and suggest that female anger may be a stronger predictor of both female-to-male and male-to-female partner aggression than male anger, when measured at the daily level. PMID:24866529

Can we determine whether physical limitations are more prevalent in the US than in countries with comparable life expectancy?

PubMed

Glei, Dana A; Goldman, Noreen; Ryff, Carol D; Weinstein, Maxine

2017-12-01

We evaluate the variability in estimates of self-reported physical limitations by age across four nationally representative surveys in the US. We consider its implications for determining whether, as previous literature suggests, the US estimates reveal limitations at an earlier age than in three countries with similar life expectancy: England, Taiwan, and Costa Rica. Based on cross-sectional data from seven population-based surveys, we use local mean smoothing to plot self-reported limitations by age for each of four physical tasks for each survey, stratified by sex. We find substantial variation in the estimates in the US across four nationally-representative surveys. For example, one US survey suggests that American women experience a walking limitation 15 years earlier than their Costa Rican counterparts, while another US survey implies that Americans have a 4-year advantage. Differences in mode of survey may account for higher prevalence of limitations in the one survey that used a self-administered mail-in questionnaire than in the other surveys that used in-person or telephone interviews. Yet, even among US surveys that used the same mode, there is still so much variability in estimates that we cannot conclude whether Americans have better or worse function than their counterparts in the other countries. Seemingly minor differences in question wording and response categories may account for the remaining inconsistency. If minor differences in question wording can result in such extensive variation in the estimates within a given population, then lack of comparability is likely to be an even greater problem when examining results across countries that do not share the same language or culture. Despite the potential utility of self-reported physical function within a survey sample, our findings imply that absolute estimates of population-level prevalence of self-reported physical limitations are unlikely to be strictly comparable across countries-or even across surveys within the same population.

Lorentz Symmetry Violations from Matter-Gravity Couplings with Lunar Laser Ranging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bourgoin, A.; Le Poncin-Lafitte, C.; Hees, A.; Bouquillon, S.; Francou, G.; Angonin, M.-C.

2017-11-01

The standard-model extension (SME) is an effective field theory framework aiming at parametrizing any violation to the Lorentz symmetry (LS) in all sectors of physics. In this Letter, we report the first direct experimental measurement of SME coefficients performed simultaneously within two sectors of the SME framework using lunar laser ranging observations. We consider the pure gravitational sector and the classical point-mass limit in the matter sector of the minimal SME. We report no deviation from general relativity and put new realistic stringent constraints on LS violations improving up to 3 orders of magnitude previous estimations.

Bird collections in the United States and Canada: Addenda and corrigenda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clench, M.H.; Banks, R.C.; Barlow, J.C.

1976-01-01

Since publication of our report on the avian collections in the United States and Canada (Banks, Clench, and Barlow 1973, Auk 90: 136- 170) several changes and additions have come to our attention. In some cases, recent curatorial work has resulted in more accurate counts to replace previous estimates. Other collections have grown markedly in the last few years. Some important private or institutional collections have been transferred to other jurisdictions. Finally, we have received a few completely new reports from collections that were unknown to us or that were unresponsive to our original requests for information.

Safety of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: A systematic review.

PubMed

Pereira, Luisa Santos; Müller, Vanessa Teixeira; da Mota Gomes, Marleide; Rotenberg, Alexander; Fregni, Felipe

2016-04-01

Approximately one-third of patients with epilepsy remain with pharmacologically intractable seizures. An emerging therapeutic modality for seizure suppression is repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS). Despite being considered a safe technique, rTMS carries the risk of inducing seizures, among other milder adverse events, and thus, its safety in the population with epilepsy should be continuously assessed. We performed an updated systematic review on the safety and tolerability of rTMS in patients with epilepsy, similar to a previous report published in 2007 (Bae EH, Schrader LM, Machii K, Alonso-Alonso M, Riviello JJ, Pascual-Leone A, Rotenberg A. Safety and tolerability of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in patients with epilepsy: a review of the literature. Epilepsy Behav. 2007; 10 (4): 521-8), and estimated the risk of seizures and other adverse events during or shortly after rTMS application. We searched the literature for reports of rTMS being applied on patients with epilepsy, with no time or language restrictions, and obtained studies published from January 1990 to August 2015. A total of 46 publications were identified, of which 16 were new studies published after the previous safety review of 2007. We noted the total number of subjects with epilepsy undergoing rTMS, medication usage, incidence of adverse events, and rTMS protocol parameters: frequency, intensity, total number of stimuli, train duration, intertrain intervals, coil type, and stimulation site. Our main data analysis included separate calculations for crude per subject risk of seizure and other adverse events, as well as risk per 1000 stimuli. We also performed an exploratory, secondary analysis on the risk of seizure and other adverse events according to the type of coil used (figure-of-8 or circular), stimulation frequency (≤ 1 Hz or > 1 Hz), pulse intensity in terms of motor threshold (<100% or ≥ 100%), and number of stimuli per session (< 500 or ≥ 500). Presence or absence of adverse events was reported in 40 studies (n = 426 subjects). A total of 78 (18.3%) subjects reported adverse events, of which 85% were mild. Headache or dizziness was the most common one, occurring in 8.9%. We found a crude per subject seizure risk of 2.9% (95% CI: 1.3-4.5), given that 12 subjects reported seizures out of 410 subjects included in the analysis after data of patients with epilepsia partialis continua or status epilepticus were excluded from the estimate. Only one of the reported seizures was considered atypical in terms of the clinical characteristics of the patients' baseline seizures. The atypical seizure happened during high-frequency rTMS with maximum stimulator output for speech arrest, clinically arising from the region of stimulation. Although we estimated a larger crude per subject seizure risk compared with the previous safety review, the corresponding confidence intervals contained both risks. Furthermore, the exclusive case of atypical seizure was the same as reported in the previous report. We conclude that the risk of seizure induction in patients with epilepsy undergoing rTMS is small and that the risk of other adverse events is similar to that of rTMS applied to other conditions and to healthy subjects. Our results should be interpreted with caution, given the need for adjusted analysis controlling for potential confounders, such as baseline seizure frequency. The similarity between the safety profiles of rTMS applied to the population with epilepsy and to individuals without epilepsy supports further investigation of rTMS as a therapy for seizure suppression. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An overview of 9/11 experiences and respiratory and mental health conditions among World Trade Center Health Registry enrollees.

PubMed

Farfel, Mark; DiGrande, Laura; Brackbill, Robert; Prann, Angela; Cone, James; Friedman, Stephen; Walker, Deborah J; Pezeshki, Grant; Thomas, Pauline; Galea, Sandro; Williamson, David; Frieden, Thomas R; Thorpe, Lorna

2008-11-01

To date, health effects of exposure to the September 11, 2001 disaster in New York City have been studied in specific groups, but no studies have estimated its impact across the different exposed populations. This report provides an overview of the World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) enrollees, their exposures, and their respiratory and mental health outcomes 2-3 years post-9/11. Results are extrapolated to the estimated universe of people eligible to enroll in the WTCHR to determine magnitude of impact. Building occupants, persons on the street or in transit in lower Manhattan on 9/11, local residents, rescue and recovery workers/volunteers, and area school children and staff were interviewed and enrolled in the WTCHR between September 2003 and November 2004. A total of 71,437 people enrolled in the WTCHR, for 17.4% coverage of the estimated eligible exposed population (nearly 410,000); 30% were recruited from lists, and 70% were self-identified. Many reported being in the dust cloud from the collapsing WTC Towers (51%), witnessing traumatic events (70%), or sustaining an injury (13%). After 9/11, 67% of adult enrollees reported new or worsening respiratory symptoms, 3% reported newly diagnosed asthma, 16% screened positive for probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and 8% for serious psychological distress (SPD). Newly diagnosed asthma was most common among rescue and recovery workers who worked on the debris pile (4.1%). PTSD was higher among those who reported Hispanic ethnicity (30%), household income < $25,000 (31%), or being injured (35%). Using previously published estimates of the total number of exposed people per WTCHR eligibility criteria, we estimate between 3,800 and 12,600 adults experienced newly diagnosed asthma and 34,600-70,200 adults experienced PTSD following the attacks, suggesting extensive adverse health impacts beyond the immediate deaths and injuries from the acute event.

An Overview of 9/11 Experiences and Respiratory and Mental Health Conditions among World Trade Center Health Registry Enrollees

PubMed Central

DiGrande, Laura; Brackbill, Robert; Prann, Angela; Cone, James; Friedman, Stephen; Walker, Deborah J.; Pezeshki, Grant; Thomas, Pauline; Galea, Sandro; Williamson, David; Frieden, Thomas R.; Thorpe, Lorna

2008-01-01

To date, health effects of exposure to the September 11, 2001 disaster in New York City have been studied in specific groups, but no studies have estimated its impact across the different exposed populations. This report provides an overview of the World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) enrollees, their exposures, and their respiratory and mental health outcomes 2–3 years post-9/11. Results are extrapolated to the estimated universe of people eligible to enroll in the WTCHR to determine magnitude of impact. Building occupants, persons on the street or in transit in lower Manhattan on 9/11, local residents, rescue and recovery workers/volunteers, and area school children and staff were interviewed and enrolled in the WTCHR between September 2003 and November 2004. A total of 71,437 people enrolled in the WTCHR, for 17.4% coverage of the estimated eligible exposed population (nearly 410,000); 30% were recruited from lists, and 70% were self-identified. Many reported being in the dust cloud from the collapsing WTC Towers (51%), witnessing traumatic events (70%), or sustaining an injury (13%). After 9/11, 67% of adult enrollees reported new or worsening respiratory symptoms, 3% reported newly diagnosed asthma, 16% screened positive for probable posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and 8% for serious psychological distress (SPD). Newly diagnosed asthma was most common among rescue and recovery workers who worked on the debris pile (4.1%). PTSD was higher among those who reported Hispanic ethnicity (30%), household income <$25,000 (31%), or being injured (35%). Using previously published estimates of the total number of exposed people per WTCHR eligibility criteria, we estimate between 3,800 and 12,600 adults experienced newly diagnosed asthma and 34,600–70,200 adults experienced PTSD following the attacks, suggesting extensive adverse health impacts beyond the immediate deaths and injuries from the acute event. PMID:18785012

The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

PubMed Central

French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

2010-01-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

PubMed

McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

2010-04-01

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of low-level sarin and cyclosarin exposure on hippocampal subfields in Gulf War Veterans.

PubMed

Chao, Linda L; Kriger, Stephen; Buckley, Shannon; Ng, Peter; Mueller, Susanne G

2014-09-01

More than 100,000 US troops were potentially exposed to chemical warfare agents sarin (GB) and cyclosarin (GF) when an ammunition dump at Khamisiyah, Iraq was destroyed during the 1991 Gulf War (GW). We previously reported reduced hippocampal volume in GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure relative to matched, unexposed GW veterans estimated from 1.5T magnetic resonance images (MRI). Here we investigate, in a different cohort of GW veterans, whether low-level GB/GF exposure is associated with structural alterations in specific hippocampal subfields, estimated from 4T MRI. The Automatic Segmentation of Hippocampal Subfields (ASHS) technique was used to quantify CA1, CA2, CA3 and dentate gyrus (DG), and subiculum (SUB) subfields volumes from high-resolution T2-weighted images acquired on a 4T MR scanner in 56 GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure and 56 "matched" unexposed GW veterans (mean age 49±7 years). GB/GF exposed veterans had smaller CA2 (p=0.003) and CA3/DG (p=0.01) subfield volumes compared to matched, unexposed GW veterans. There were no group difference in total hippocampal volume, quantified with FreeSurfer, and no dose-response relationship between estimated levels of GB/GF exposure and total hippocampal or subfield volume. These findings extend our previous report of structural alterations in the hippocampi of GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure to volume changes in the CA2, CA3, and DG hippocampal subfields in a different cohort of GW veterans with suspected GB/GF exposure. Published by Elsevier B.V.

REVISITING GLYCOGEN CONTENT IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

PubMed Central

Öz, Gülin; DiNuzzo, Mauro; Kumar, Anjali; Moheet, Amir; Seaquist, Elizabeth R.

2015-01-01

Glycogen provides an important glucose reservoir in the brain since the concentration of glucosyl units stored in glycogen is several fold higher than free glucose available in brain tissue. We have previously reported 3–4 µmol/g brain glycogen content using in vivo 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in conjunction with [1-13C]glucose administration in healthy humans, while higher levels were reported in the rodent brain. Due to the slow turnover of bulk brain glycogen in humans, complete turnover of the glycogen pool, estimated to take 3–5 days, was not observed in these prior studies. In an attempt to reach complete turnover and thereby steady state 13C labeling in glycogen, here we administered [1-13C]glucose to healthy volunteers for 80 hours. To eliminate any net glycogen synthesis during this period and thereby achieve an accurate estimate of glycogen concentration, volunteers were maintained at euglycemic blood glucose levels during [1-13C]glucose administration and 13C-glycogen levels in the occipital lobe were measured by 13C MRS approximately every 12 hours. Finally, we fitted the data with a biophysical model that was recently developed to take into account the tiered structure of the glycogen molecule and additionally incorporated blood glucose levels and isotopic enrichments as input function in the model. We obtained excellent fits of the model to the 13C-glycogen data, and glycogen content in the healthy human brain tissue was found to be 7.8 ± 0.3 µmol/g, a value substantially higher than previous estimates of glycogen content in the human brain. PMID:26202425

Revisiting Glycogen Content in the Human Brain.

PubMed

Öz, Gülin; DiNuzzo, Mauro; Kumar, Anjali; Moheet, Amir; Seaquist, Elizabeth R

2015-12-01

Glycogen provides an important glucose reservoir in the brain since the concentration of glucosyl units stored in glycogen is several fold higher than free glucose available in brain tissue. We have previously reported 3-4 µmol/g brain glycogen content using in vivo (13)C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in conjunction with [1-(13)C]glucose administration in healthy humans, while higher levels were reported in the rodent brain. Due to the slow turnover of bulk brain glycogen in humans, complete turnover of the glycogen pool, estimated to take 3-5 days, was not observed in these prior studies. In an attempt to reach complete turnover and thereby steady state (13)C labeling in glycogen, here we administered [1-(13)C]glucose to healthy volunteers for 80 h. To eliminate any net glycogen synthesis during this period and thereby achieve an accurate estimate of glycogen concentration, volunteers were maintained at euglycemic blood glucose levels during [1-(13)C]glucose administration and (13)C-glycogen levels in the occipital lobe were measured by (13)C MRS approximately every 12 h. Finally, we fitted the data with a biophysical model that was recently developed to take into account the tiered structure of the glycogen molecule and additionally incorporated blood glucose levels and isotopic enrichments as input function in the model. We obtained excellent fits of the model to the (13)C-glycogen data, and glycogen content in the healthy human brain tissue was found to be 7.8 ± 0.3 µmol/g, a value substantially higher than previous estimates of glycogen content in the human brain.

(U-Th)/He ages of phosphates from Zagami and ALHA77005 Martian meteorites: Implications to shock temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Kyoungwon; Farah, Annette E.; Lee, Seung Ryeol; Lee, Jong Ik

2017-01-01

Shock conditions of Martian meteorites provide crucial information about ejection dynamics and original features of the Martian rocks. To better constrain equilibrium shock temperatures (Tequi-shock) of Martian meteorites, we investigated (U-Th)/He systematics of moderately-shocked (Zagami) and intensively shocked (ALHA77005) Martian meteorites. Multiple phosphate aggregates from Zagami and ALHA77005 yielded overall (U-Th)/He ages 92.2 ± 4.4 Ma (2σ) and 8.4 ± 1.2 Ma, respectively. These ages correspond to fractional losses of 0.49 ± 0.03 (Zagami) and 0.97 ± 0.01 (ALHA77005), assuming that the ejection-related shock event at ∼3 Ma is solely responsible for diffusive helium loss since crystallization. For He diffusion modeling, the diffusion domain radius is estimated based on detailed examination of fracture patterns in phosphates using a scanning electron microscope. For Zagami, the diffusion domain radius is estimated to be ∼2-9 μm, which is generally consistent with calculations from isothermal heating experiments (1-4 μm). For ALHA77005, the diffusion domain radius of ∼4-20 μm is estimated. Using the newly constrained (U-Th)/He data, diffusion domain radii, and other previously estimated parameters, the conductive cooling models yield Tequi-shock estimates of 360-410 °C and 460-560 °C for Zagami and ALHA77005, respectively. According to the sensitivity test, the estimated Tequi-shock values are relatively robust to input parameters. The Tequi-shock estimates for Zagami are more robust than those for ALHA77005, primarily because Zagami yielded intermediate fHe value (0.49) compared to ALHA77005 (0.97). For less intensively shocked Zagami, the He diffusion-based Tequi-shock estimates (this study) are significantly higher than expected from previously reported Tpost-shock values. For intensively shocked ALHA77005, the two independent approaches yielded generally consistent results. Using two other examples of previously studied Martian meteorites (ALHA84001 and Los Angeles), we compared Tequi-shock and Tpost-shock estimates. For intensively shocked meteorites (ALHA77005, Los Angeles), the He diffusion-based approach yield slightly higher or consistent Tequi-shock with estimations from Tpost-shock, and the discrepancy between the two methods increases as the intensity of shock increases. The reason for the discrepancy between the two methods, particularly for less-intensively shocked meteorites (Zagami, ALHA84001), remains to be resolved, but we prefer the He diffusion-based approach because its Tequi-shock estimates are relatively robust to input parameters.

Global Burden of Leptospirosis: Estimated in Terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years

PubMed Central

Torgerson, Paul R.; Hagan, José E.; Costa, Federico; Calcagno, Juan; Kane, Michael; Martinez-Silveira, Martha S.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Stein, Claudia; Ko, Albert I.; Abela-Ridder, Bernadette

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis, a spirochaetal zoonosis, occurs in diverse epidemiological settings and affects vulnerable populations, such as rural subsistence farmers and urban slum dwellers. Although leptospirosis can cause life-threatening disease, there is no global burden of disease estimate in terms of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) available. Methodology/Principal Findings We utilised the results of a parallel publication that reported global estimates of morbidity and mortality due to leptospirosis. We estimated Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from age and gender stratified mortality rates. Years of Life with Disability (YLDs) were developed from a simple disease model indicating likely sequelae. DALYs were estimated from the sum of YLLs and YLDs. The study suggested that globally approximately 2·90 million DALYs are lost per annum (UIs 1·25–4·54 million) from the approximately annual 1·03 million cases reported previously. Males are predominantly affected with an estimated 2·33 million DALYs (UIs 0·98–3·69) or approximately 80% of the total burden. For comparison, this is over 70% of the global burden of cholera estimated by GBD 2010. Tropical regions of South and South-east Asia, Western Pacific, Central and South America, and Africa had the highest estimated leptospirosis disease burden. Conclusions/Significance Leptospirosis imparts a significant health burden worldwide, which approach or exceed those encountered for a number of other zoonotic and neglected tropical diseases. The study findings indicate that highest burden estimates occur in resource-poor tropical countries, which include regions of Africa where the burden of leptospirosis has been under-appreciated and possibly misallocated to other febrile illnesses such as malaria. PMID:26431366

Revised spatially distributed global livestock emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G.; Wolf, J.; West, T. O.

2015-12-01

Livestock play an important role in agricultural carbon cycling through consumption of biomass and emissions of methane. Quantification and spatial distribution of methane and carbon dioxide produced by livestock is needed to develop bottom-up estimates for carbon monitoring. These estimates serve as stand-alone international emissions estimates, as input to global emissions modeling, and as comparisons or constraints to flux estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Recent results for the US suggest that the 2006 IPCC default coefficients may underestimate livestock methane emissions. In this project, revised coefficients were calculated for cattle and swine in all global regions, based on reported changes in body mass, quality and quantity of feed, milk production, and management of living animals and manure for these regions. New estimates of livestock methane and carbon dioxide emissions were calculated using the revised coefficients and global livestock population data. Spatial distribution of population data and associated fluxes was conducted using the MODIS Land Cover Type 5, version 5.1 (i.e. MCD12Q1 data product), and a previously published downscaling algorithm for reconciling inventory and satellite-based land cover data at 0.05 degree resolution. Preliminary results for 2013 indicate greater emissions than those calculated using the IPCC 2006 coefficients. Global total enteric fermentation methane increased by 6%, while manure management methane increased by 38%, with variation among species and regions resulting in improved spatial distributions of livestock emissions. These new estimates of total livestock methane are comparable to other recently reported studies for the entire US and the State of California. These new regional/global estimates will improve the ability to reconcile top-down and bottom-up estimates of methane production as well as provide updated global estimates for use in development and evaluation of Earth system models.

Estimating a structured covariance matrix from multi-lab measurements in high-throughput biology.

PubMed

Franks, Alexander M; Csárdi, Gábor; Drummond, D Allan; Airoldi, Edoardo M

2015-03-01

We consider the problem of quantifying the degree of coordination between transcription and translation, in yeast. Several studies have reported a surprising lack of coordination over the years, in organisms as different as yeast and human, using diverse technologies. However, a close look at this literature suggests that the lack of reported correlation may not reflect the biology of regulation. These reports do not control for between-study biases and structure in the measurement errors, ignore key aspects of how the data connect to the estimand, and systematically underestimate the correlation as a consequence. Here, we design a careful meta-analysis of 27 yeast data sets, supported by a multilevel model, full uncertainty quantification, a suite of sensitivity analyses and novel theory, to produce a more accurate estimate of the correlation between mRNA and protein levels-a proxy for coordination. From a statistical perspective, this problem motivates new theory on the impact of noise, model mis-specifications and non-ignorable missing data on estimates of the correlation between high dimensional responses. We find that the correlation between mRNA and protein levels is quite high under the studied conditions, in yeast, suggesting that post-transcriptional regulation plays a less prominent role than previously thought.

Estimating a structured covariance matrix from multi-lab measurements in high-throughput biology

PubMed Central

Franks, Alexander M.; Csárdi, Gábor; Drummond, D. Allan; Airoldi, Edoardo M.

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of quantifying the degree of coordination between transcription and translation, in yeast. Several studies have reported a surprising lack of coordination over the years, in organisms as different as yeast and human, using diverse technologies. However, a close look at this literature suggests that the lack of reported correlation may not reflect the biology of regulation. These reports do not control for between-study biases and structure in the measurement errors, ignore key aspects of how the data connect to the estimand, and systematically underestimate the correlation as a consequence. Here, we design a careful meta-analysis of 27 yeast data sets, supported by a multilevel model, full uncertainty quantification, a suite of sensitivity analyses and novel theory, to produce a more accurate estimate of the correlation between mRNA and protein levels—a proxy for coordination. From a statistical perspective, this problem motivates new theory on the impact of noise, model mis-specifications and non-ignorable missing data on estimates of the correlation between high dimensional responses. We find that the correlation between mRNA and protein levels is quite high under the studied conditions, in yeast, suggesting that post-transcriptional regulation plays a less prominent role than previously thought. PMID:25954056

Preliminary data suggest rates of male military sexual trauma may be higher than previously reported.

PubMed

Sheppard, Sean C; Hickling, Edward J; Earleywine, Mitch; Hoyt, Tim; Russo, Amanda R; Donati, Matthew R; Kip, Kevin E

2015-11-01

Stigma associated with disclosing military sexual trauma (MST) makes estimating an accurate base rate difficult. Anonymous assessment may help alleviate stigma. Although anonymous research has found higher rates of male MST, no study has evaluated whether providing anonymity sufficiently mitigates the impact of stigma on accurate reporting. This study used the unmatched count technique (UCT), a form of randomized response techniques, to gain information about the accuracy of base rate estimates of male MST derived via anonymous assessment of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF)/Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) combat veterans. A cross-sectional convenience sample of 180 OEF/OIF male combat veterans, recruited via online websites for military populations, provided data about history of MST via traditional anonymous self-report and the UCT. The UCT revealed a rate of male MST more than 15 times higher than the rate derived via traditional anonymous assessment (1.1% vs. 17.2%). These data suggest that anonymity does not adequately mitigate the impact of stigma on disclosure of male MST. Results, though preliminary, suggest that published rates of male MST may substantially underestimate the true rate of this problem. The UCT has significant potential to improve base rate estimation of sensitive behaviors in the military. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.

Concentration, flux, and trend estimates with uncertainty for nutrients, chloride, and total suspended solids in tributaries of Lake Champlain, 1990–2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Medalie, Laura

2016-12-20

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New England Interstate Water Pollution Control Commission and the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation, estimated daily and 9-month concentrations and fluxes of total and dissolved phosphorus, total nitrogen, chloride, and total suspended solids from 1990 (or first available date) through 2014 for 18 tributaries of Lake Champlain. Estimates of concentration and flux, provided separately in Medalie (2016), were made by using the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS) regression model and update previously published WRTDS model results with recent data. Assessment of progress towards meeting phosphorus-reduction goals outlined in the Lake Champlain management plan relies on annual estimates of phosphorus flux. The percent change in annual concentration and flux is provided for two time periods. The R package EGRETci was used to estimate the uncertainty of the trend estimate. Differences in model specification and function between this study and previous studies that used WRTDS to estimate concentration and flux using data from Lake Champlain tributaries are described. Winter data were too sparse and nonrepresentative to use for estimates of concentration and flux but were sufficient for estimating the percentage of total annual flux over the period of record. Median winter-to-annual fractions ranged between 21 percent for total suspended solids and 27 percent for dissolved phosphorus. The winter contribution was largest for all constituents from the Mettawee River and smallest from the Ausable River. For the full record (1991 through 2014 for total and dissolved phosphorus and chloride and 1993 through 2014 for nitrogen and total suspended solids), 6 tributaries had decreasing trends in concentrations of total phosphorus, and 12 had increasing trends; concentrations of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 6 and increased in 8 tributaries; fluxes of total phosphorus decreased in 5 and increased in 10 tributaries; and fluxes of dissolved phosphorus decreased in 4 and increased in 10 tributaries (where the number of increasing and decreasing trends does not add up to 18, the remainder of tributaries had no trends). Concentrations and fluxes of nitrogen decreased in 10 and increased in 4 tributaries and of chloride decreased in 2 and increased in 15 tributaries. Concentrations of total suspended solids decreased in 4 and increased in 8 tributaries, and fluxes of total suspended solids decreased in 3 and increased in 11 tributaries. Although time intervals for the percent changes from this report are not completely synchronous with those from previous studies, the numbers of and specific tributaries with overall negative percent changes in concentration and flux are similar. Concentration estimates of total phosphorus in the Winooski River were used to trace whether changes in trends between a previous study and the current study were due generally to differences in model specifications or differences from 4 years of additional data. The Winooski River analysis illustrates several things: that keeping all model specifications equal, concentration estimates increased from 2010 to 2014; the effects of a smoothing algorithm used in the current study that was not available previously; that narrowing model half-window widths increased year-to-year variations; and that the change from an annual to a 9-month basis by omitting winter estimates changed a few individual points but not the overall shape of the flow-normalized curve. Similar tests for other tributaries showed that the primary effect of differences in model specifications between the previous and current studies was perhaps to increase scatter over time but that changes in trends generally were the result of 4 years of additional data rather than artifacts of model differences.

Field‐readable alphanumeric flags are valuable markers for shorebirds: use of double‐marking to identify cases of misidentification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roche, Erin A.; Dovichin, Colin M.; Arnold, Todd W.

2014-01-01

Implicit assumptions for most mark-recapture studies are that individuals do not lose their markers and all observed markers are correctly recorded. If these assumptions are violated, e.g., due to loss or extreme wear of markers, estimates of population size and vital rates will be biased. Double-marking experiments have been widely used to estimate rates of marker loss and adjust for associated bias, and we extended this approach to estimate rates of recording errors. We double-marked 309 Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) with unique combinations of color bands and alphanumeric flags and used multi-state mark recapture models to estimate the frequency with which plovers were misidentified. Observers were twice as likely to read and report an invalid color-band combination (2.4% of the time) as an invalid alphanumeric code (1.0%). Observers failed to read matching band combinations or alphanumeric flag codes 4.5% of the time. Unlike previous band resighting studies, use of two resightable markers allowed us to identify when resighting errors resulted in reports of combinations or codes that were valid, but still incorrect; our results suggest this may be a largely unappreciated problem in mark-resight studies. Field-readable alphanumeric flags offer a promising auxiliary marker for identifying and potentially adjusting for false-positive resighting errors that may otherwise bias demographic estimates.

Built-Up Area Feature Extraction: Second Year Technical Progress Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-02-01

Contract DACA 72-87-C-001. During this year we have built on previous research, in road network extraction and in the detection and delineation of buildings...methods to perform stereo analysis using loosely coupled techniques where comparison is deferred until each method has performed a complete estimate...or missing information. A course of action may be suggested to the user depending on the error. Although the checks do not guarantee the correctness

Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

determine the number of pregnancies in the study popu- lation for a given period. Studies of early pregnancy have estimated that up to 40% of all...addition, women with previous HG may need to be seen more frequently in early pregnancy to facilitate more rapid diagno- sis and treatment of the...O’Mathúna D, Dowswell T. Interventions for nausea and vomiting in early pregnancy . Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2015;8(9):CD007575. 13. Philip B

Evaluating the translation process of an Internet-based self-help intervention for prevention of depression: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lintvedt, Ove K; Griffiths, Kathleen M; Eisemann, Martin; Waterloo, Knut

2013-01-23

Depression is common and treatable with cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), for example. However, access to this therapy is limited. Internet-based interventions have been found to be effective in reducing symptoms of depression. The International Society for Research on Internet Interventions has highlighted the importance of translating effective Internet programs into multiple languages to enable worldwide dissemination. The aim of the current study was to determine if it would be cost effective to translate an existing English-language Internet-based intervention for use in a non-English-speaking country. This paper reports an evaluation of a trial in which a research group in Norway translated two English-language Internet-based interventions into Norwegian (MoodGYM and BluePages) that had previously been shown to reduce symptoms of depression. The translation process and estimates of the cost-effectiveness of such a translation process is described. Estimated health effect was found by using quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Conservative estimates indicate that for every 1000 persons treated, 16 QALYs are gained. The investment is returned 9 times and the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is 3432. The costs of the translation project totaled to approximately 27% of the estimated original English-language version development costs. The economic analysis shows that the cost-effectiveness of the translation project was substantial. Hopefully, these results will encourage others to do similar analyses and report cost-effectiveness data in their research reports.

Evaluating the Translation Process of an Internet-Based Self-Help Intervention for Prevention of Depression: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Depression is common and treatable with cognitive behavior therapy (CBT), for example. However, access to this therapy is limited. Internet-based interventions have been found to be effective in reducing symptoms of depression. The International Society for Research on Internet Interventions has highlighted the importance of translating effective Internet programs into multiple languages to enable worldwide dissemination. Objective The aim of the current study was to determine if it would be cost effective to translate an existing English-language Internet-based intervention for use in a non-English-speaking country. Methods This paper reports an evaluation of a trial in which a research group in Norway translated two English-language Internet-based interventions into Norwegian (MoodGYM and BluePages) that had previously been shown to reduce symptoms of depression. The translation process and estimates of the cost-effectiveness of such a translation process is described. Estimated health effect was found by using quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Results Conservative estimates indicate that for every 1000 persons treated, 16 QALYs are gained. The investment is returned 9 times and the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is 3432. The costs of the translation project totaled to approximately 27% of the estimated original English-language version development costs. Conclusions The economic analysis shows that the cost-effectiveness of the translation project was substantial. Hopefully, these results will encourage others to do similar analyses and report cost-effectiveness data in their research reports. PMID:23343481

Efficient estimation and large-scale evaluation of lateral chromatic aberration for digital image forensics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gloe, Thomas; Borowka, Karsten; Winkler, Antje

2010-01-01

The analysis of lateral chromatic aberration forms another ingredient for a well equipped toolbox of an image forensic investigator. Previous work proposed its application to forgery detection1 and image source identification.2 This paper takes a closer look on the current state-of-the-art method to analyse lateral chromatic aberration and presents a new approach to estimate lateral chromatic aberration in a runtime-efficient way. Employing a set of 11 different camera models including 43 devices, the characteristic of lateral chromatic aberration is investigated in a large-scale. The reported results point to general difficulties that have to be considered in real world investigations.

Improving uncertainty estimates: Inter-annual variability in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullinger, D.; Zhang, M.; Hill, N.; Crutchley, T.

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with inter-annual variability used within wind resource assessments for Ireland in order to more accurately represent the uncertainties within wind resource and energy yield assessments. The study was undertaken using a total of 16 ground stations (Met Eireann) and corresponding reanalysis datasets to provide an update to previous work on this topic undertaken nearly 20 years ago. The results of the work demonstrate that the previously reported 5.4% of wind speed inter-annual variability is considered to be appropriate, guidance is given on how to provide a robust assessment of IAV using available sources of data including ground stations, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim.

Estimates of internal-dose equivalent from inhalation and ingestion of selected radionuclides

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dunning, D.E.

1982-01-01

This report presents internal radiation dose conversion factors for radionuclides of interest in environmental assessments of nuclear fuel cycles. This volume provides an updated summary of estimates of committed dose equivalent for radionuclides considered in three previous Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) reports. Intakes by inhalation and ingestion are considered. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Task Group Lung Model has been used to simulate the deposition and retention of particulate matter in the respiratory tract. Results corresponding to activity median aerodynamic diameters (AMAD) of 0.3, 1.0, and 5.0 ..mu..m are given. The gastorintestinal (GI) tract has been representedmore » by a four-segment catenary model with exponential transfer of radioactivity from one segment to the next. Retention of radionuclides in systemic organs is characterized by linear combinations of decaying exponential functions, recommended in ICRP Publication 30. The first-year annual dose rate, maximum annual dose rate, and fifty-year dose commitment per microcurie intake of each radionuclide is given for selected target organs and the effective dose equivalent. These estimates include contributions from specified source organs plus the systemic activity residing in the rest of the body; cross irradiation due to penetrating radiations has been incorporated into these estimates. 15 references.« less

Development and Evaluation of New Methods for Estimating Albedo-area for Stable GEOs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, T. E.; Gregory, S. A.; Dentamaro, A.; Ernst, M.; Hollon, J.; Kruchten, A.; Chaudhary, A. B.; Dao, P. D.

Although direct measurements of the projected areas of various Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) satellite facets are impossible without high-resolution imaging, estimates of the albedo-Area (aA) product lead to the possibility of inferring the area. Such size estimates are an integral part of its identity. We are engaged in parallel development of two methods for calculating aA for the body/communication antennae structures and one method for the solar panels. We have previously reported on the Two Facet Model (2FM) method for body aA, and here we discuss a method based on differences between new observations and a baseline catalog that has been constructed from the GEO Observations with Longitudinal Diversity Simultaneously (GOLDS) data. We report on evaluations of the 2FM and differential method (DM) algorithm results. We also discuss a new method of estimating solar panel aA by fitting new data that include specular glints. All of these measurement methods are compared to models and simulations that serve as a proxy for ground truth. Because of the partially directional nature of the composite Bi-directional Reflectivity Distribution Function (BRDF) of all bus-mounted appendages, variance of body aA results is expected to be significant. Short-term and long-term variance of the derived aAs will also be discussed.

Total suspended solids concentrations and yields for water-quality monitoring stations in Gwinnett County, Georgia, 1996-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Landers, Mark N.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Gwinnett County Department of Water Resources, established a water-quality monitoring program during late 1996 to collect comprehensive, consistent, high-quality data for use by watershed managers. As of 2009, continuous streamflow and water-quality data as well as discrete water-quality samples were being collected for 14 watershed monitoring stations in Gwinnett County. This report provides statistical summaries of total suspended solids (TSS) concentrations for 730 stormflow and 710 base-flow water-quality samples collected between 1996 and 2009 for 14 watershed monitoring stations in Gwinnett County. Annual yields of TSS were estimated for each of the 14 watersheds using methods described in previous studies. TSS yield was estimated using linear, ordinary least-squares regression of TSS and explanatory variables of discharge, turbidity, season, date, and flow condition. The error of prediction for estimated yields ranged from 1 to 42 percent for the stations in this report; however, the actual overall uncertainty of the estimated yields cannot be less than that of the observed yields (± 15 to 20 percent). These watershed yields provide a basis for evaluation of how watershed characteristics, climate, and watershed management practices affect suspended sediment yield.

Mapping the pharmacological modulation of brain oxygen metabolism: The effects of caffeine on absolute CMRO2 measured using dual calibrated fMRI.

PubMed

Merola, Alberto; Germuska, Michael A; Warnert, Esther Ah; Richmond, Lewys; Helme, Daniel; Khot, Sharmila; Murphy, Kevin; Rogers, Peter J; Hall, Judith E; Wise, Richard G

2017-07-15

This study aims to map the acute effects of caffeine ingestion on grey matter oxygen metabolism and haemodynamics with a novel MRI method. Sixteen healthy caffeine consumers (8 males, age=24.7±5.1) were recruited to this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. Each participant was scanned on two days before and after the delivery of an oral caffeine (250mg) or placebo capsule. Our measurements were obtained with a newly proposed estimation approach applied to data from a dual calibration fMRI experiment that uses hypercapnia and hyperoxia to modulate brain blood flow and oxygenation. Estimates were based on a forward model that describes analytically the contributions of cerebral blood flow (CBF) and of the measured end-tidal partial pressures of CO 2 and O 2 to the acquired dual-echo GRE signal. The method allows the estimation of grey matter maps of: oxygen extraction fraction (OEF), CBF, CBF-related cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) and cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen consumption (CMRO 2 ). Other estimates from a multi inversion time ASL acquisition (mTI-ASL), salivary samples of the caffeine concentration and behavioural measurements are also reported. We observed significant differences between caffeine and placebo on average across grey matter, with OEF showing an increase of 15.6% (SEM±4.9%, p<0.05) with caffeine, while CBF and CMRO 2 showed differences of -30.4% (SEM±1.6%, p<0.01) and -18.6% (SEM±2.9%, p<0.01) respectively with caffeine administration. The reduction in oxygen metabolism found is somehow unexpected, but consistent with a hypothesis of decreased energetic demand, supported by previous electrophysiological studies reporting reductions in spectral power with EEG. Moreover the maps of the physiological parameters estimated illustrate the spatial distribution of changes across grey matter enabling us to localise the effects of caffeine with voxel-wise resolution. CBF changes were widespread as reported by previous findings, while changes in OEF were found to be more restricted, leading to unprecedented mapping of significant CMRO 2 reductions mainly in frontal gyrus, parietal and occipital lobes. In conclusion, we propose the estimation framework based on our novel forward model with a dual calibrated fMRI experiment as a viable MRI method to map the effects of drugs on brain oxygen metabolism and haemodynamics with voxel-wise resolution. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

PubMed

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

PubMed Central

Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad

2015-01-01

Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

Fall-Related Injuries in a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Older Adults Attending Peer-Led Fall Prevention Exercise Classes.

PubMed

Wurzer, Birgit; Waters, Debra Lynn; Hale, Leigh Anne

2016-01-01

To investigate reported injuries and circumstances and to estimate the costs related to falls experienced by older adults participating in Steady As You Go (SAYGO) peer-led fall prevention exercise classes. A 12-month prospective cohort study of 207 participants attending community-based SAYGO classes in Dunedin, New Zealand. Types and costs of medical treatment for injuries and circumstances of falls were obtained via standardized fall event questionnaires and phone-administered questionnaires. Eighty-four percent completed the study (160 females, 14 males, mean age = 77.5 [standard deviation = 6.5] years). More than a third of the total falls (55/148 total falls, 37%) did not result in any injuries. Most injuries (45%, n = 67) were sprains, grazes, and bruises. Medical attention was sought 26 times (18%), out of which 6 participants (4%) reported fractures (none femoral). The majority of falls occurred while walking. More falls and injuries occurred outdoors (n = 55). The number of times medical treatment was sought correlated with the number of falls in the previous year (r = 0.50, P = .02). The total number of years attending SAYGO was a significant predictor of lower total number of injuries (stepwise regression β = -0.157, t = -1.99, P = .048). The total cost of medical treatment across all reported injurious falls was estimated at NZ$6946 (US$5415). Older adults participating in SAYGO appear to sustain less severe injuries following a fall than previously reported. More falls and injuries occurred outdoors, suggesting better overall health of these participants. The role of long-term participation in fall prevention exercise classes on injurious falls warrants further investigation.

Suicidal ideation among Métis adult men and women--associated risk and protective factors: findings from a nationally representative survey.

PubMed

Kumar, Mohan B; Walls, Melissa; Janz, Teresa; Hutchinson, Peter; Turner, Tara; Graham, Catherine

2012-08-06

To determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation among Métis men and women (20-59 years) and identify its associated risk and protective factors using data from the nationally representative Aboriginal Peoples Survey (2006). Secondary analysis of previously collected data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey. Across Canada, lifetime suicidal ideation was reported by an estimated 13.3% (or an estimated 34,517 individuals) of the total population of 20-to-59-year-old Métis. Of those who ideated, 46.2% reported a lifetime suicide attempt and 6.0% indicated that they had attempted suicide in the previous 12 months. Prevalence of suicidal ideation was higher among Métis men than in men who did not report Aboriginal identity in examined jurisdictions. Métis women were more likely to report suicidal ideation compared with Métis men (14.9% vs. 11.5%, respectively). Métis women and men had some common associated risk and protective factors such as major depressive episode, history of self-injury, perceived Aboriginal-specific community issues, divorced status, high mobility, self-rated thriving health, high self-esteem and positive coping ability. However, in Métis women alone, heavy frequent drinking, history of foster care experience and lower levels of social support were significant associated risk factors of suicidal ideation. Furthermore, a significant interaction was observed between social support and major depressive episode. Among Métis men, history of ever smoking was the sole unique associated risk factor. The higher prevalence of suicidal ideation among Métis women compared with Métis men and the observed gender differences in associations with some associated risk and protective factors suggest the need for gender-responsive programming to address suicidal ideation.

Suicidal ideation among Métis adult men and women - associated risk and protective factors: findings from a nationally representative survey.

PubMed

Kumar, Mohan B; Walls, Melissa; Janz, Teresa; Hutchinson, Peter; Turner, Tara; Graham, Catherine

2012-01-01

To determine the prevalence of suicidal ideation among Métis men and women (20-59 years) and identify its associated risk and protective factors using data from the nationally representative Aboriginal Peoples Survey (2006). Secondary analysis of previously collected data from a nationally representative cross-sectional survey. Across Canada, lifetime suicidal ideation was reported by an estimated 13.3% (or an estimated 34,517 individuals) of the total population of 20-to-59-year-old Métis. Of those who ideated, 46.2% reported a lifetime suicide attempt and 6.0% indicated that they had attempted suicide in the previous 12 months. Prevalence of suicidal ideation was higher among Métis men than in men who did not report Aboriginal identity in examined jurisdictions. Métis women were more likely to report suicidal ideation compared with Métis men (14.9% vs. 11.5%, respectively). Métis women and men had some common associated risk and protective factors such as major depressive episode, history of self-injury, perceived Aboriginal-specific community issues, divorced status, high mobility, self-rated thriving health, high self-esteem and positive coping ability. However, in Métis women alone, heavy frequent drinking, history of foster care experience and lower levels of social support were significant associated risk factors of suicidal ideation. Furthermore, a significant interaction was observed between social support and major depressive episode. Among Métis men, history of ever smoking was the sole unique associated risk factor. The higher prevalence of suicidal ideation among Métis women compared with Métis men and the observed gender differences in associations with some associated risk and protective factors suggest the need for gender-responsive programming to address suicidal ideation.

Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise.

PubMed

Hay, Carling C; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E; Mitrovica, Jerry X

2015-01-22

Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 ± 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 ± 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records.The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

Uncertainties in slip-rate estimates for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms Oasis, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behr, W.M.; Rood, D.H.; Fletcher, K.E.; Guzman, N.; Finkel, R.; Hanks, T.C.; Hudnut, K.W.; Kendrick, K.J.; Platt, J.P.; Sharp, W.D.; Weldon, R.J.; Yule, J.D.

2010-01-01

This study focuses on uncertainties in estimates of the geologic slip rate along the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault where it offsets an alluvial fan (T2) at Biskra Palms Oasis in southern California. We provide new estimates of the amount of fault offset of the T2 fan based on trench excavations and new cosmogenic 10Be age determinations from the tops of 12 boulders on the fan surface. We present three alternative fan offset models: a minimum, a maximum, and a preferred offset of 660 m, 980 m, and 770 m, respectively. We assign an age of between 45 and 54 ka to the T2 fan from the 10Be data, which is significantly older than previously reported but is consistent with both the degree of soil development associated with this surface, and with ages from U-series geochronology on pedogenic carbonate from T2, described in a companion paper by Fletcher et al. (this volume). These new constraints suggest a range of slip rates between ~12 and 22 mm/yr with a preferred estimate of ~14-17 mm/yr for the Mission Creek strand of the southern San Andreas fault. Previous studies suggested that the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates at Biskra Palms differed. We find, however, that considerable uncertainty affects both the geologic and geodetic slip-rate estimates, such that if a real discrepancy between these rates exists for the southern San Andreas fault at Biskra Palms, it cannot be demonstrated with available data. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Temporal and spatial variability of groundwater recharge on Jeju Island, Korea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mair, Alan; Hagedorn, Benjamin; Tillery, Suzanne; El-Kadi, Aly I.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Ha, Kyoochul; Koh, Gi-Won

2013-01-01

Estimates of groundwater recharge spatial and temporal variability are essential inputs to groundwater flow models that are used to test groundwater availability under different management and climate conditions. In this study, a soil water balance analysis was conducted to estimate groundwater recharge on the island of Jeju, Korea, for baseline, drought, and climate-land use change scenarios. The Soil Water Balance (SWB) computer code was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 100 m grid cell size for an 18-year baseline scenario (1992–2009). A 10-year drought scenario was selected from historical precipitation trends (1961–2009), while the climate-land use change scenario was developed using late 21st century climate projections and a change in urban land use. Mean annual recharge under the baseline, drought, and climate-land use scenarios was estimated at 884, 591, and 788 mm, respectively. Under the baseline scenario, mean annual recharge was within the range of previous estimates (825–959 mm) and only slightly lower than the mean of 902 mm. As a fraction of mean annual rainfall, mean annual recharge was computed as only 42% and less than previous estimates of 44–48%. The maximum historical reported annual pumping rate of 241 × 106 m3 equates to 15% of baseline recharge, which is within the range of 14–16% computed from earlier studies. The model does not include a mechanism to account for additional sources of groundwater recharge, such as fog drip, irrigation, and artificial recharge, and may also overestimate evapotranspiration losses. Consequently, the results presented in this study represent a conservative estimate of total recharge.

A new macroseismic intensity prediction equation and magnitude estimates of the 1811-1812 New Madrid and 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, O. S.; Cramer, C. H.

2013-12-01

We develop an intensity prediction equation (IPE) for the Central and Eastern United States, explore differences between modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) and community internet intensities (CII) and the propensity for reporting, and estimate the moment magnitudes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid, MO, and 1886 Charleston, SC, earthquakes. We constrain the study with North American census data, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration MMI dataset (responses between 1924 and 1985), and the USGS ';Did You Feel It?' CII dataset (responses between June, 2000 and August, 2012). The combined intensity dataset has more than 500,000 felt reports for 517 earthquakes with magnitudes between 2.5 and 7.2. The IPE has the basic form, MMI=c1+c2M+c3exp(λ)+c4λ. where M is moment magnitude and λ is mean log hypocentral distance. Previous IPEs use a limited dataset of MMI, do not differentiate between MMI and CII data in the CEUS, nor account for spatial variations in population. These factors can have an impact at all magnitudes, especially the last factor at large magnitudes and small intensities where the population drops to zero in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. We assume that the number of reports of a given intensity have hypocentral distances that are log-normally distributed, the distribution of which is modulated by population and the propensity for individuals to report their experience. We do not account for variations in stress drop, regional variations in Q, or distance-dependent geometrical spreading. We simulate the distribution of reports of a given intensity accounting for population and use a grid search method to solve for the fraction of population to report the intensity, the standard deviation of the log-normal distribution and the mean log hypocentral distance, which appears in the above equation. We find that lower intensities, both CII and MMI, are less likely to be reported than greater intensities. Further, there are strong spatial variations in the level of CII reporting. For example, large metropolitan areas appear to have a lower level of reporting relative to rural areas. In general, we find that intensities decrease with increasing distance and decreasing magnitude, as expected. Coefficients for the IPE are c1=1.98×0.13 c2=1.76×0.02 c3=-0.0027×0.0004, and c4=-1.26×0.03. We find significant differences in mean log hypocentral distance between MMI- and CII-based reporting, particularly at smaller mean log distance and higher intensity. Values of mean log distance for CII at high intensity tend to be smaller than for MMI at the same value of intensity. The new IPE leads to magnitude estimates for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes that are within the broad range of those determined previously. Using three MMI datasets for the New Madrid mainshocks, the new relation results in estimates for the moment magnitudes of the December 16th, 1811, January 23rd, 1812, and February 7th, 1812 mainshocks and December 16th dawn aftershock of 7.1¬¬-7.4, 7.2, 7.5-7.7, and 6.7-7.2, respectively, with a magnitude uncertainty of about ×0.4 units. We estimate a magnitude of 7.0×0.3 for the 1886 Charleston, SC earthquake.

A Systematic Review of the Frequency of Neurocyticercosis with a Focus on People with Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Ndimubanzi, Patrick C.; Carabin, Hélène; Budke, Christine M.; Nguyen, Hai; Qian, Ying-Jun; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Reynolds, Stephanie; Stoner, Julie A.

2010-01-01

Background The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of studies reporting the frequency of neurocysticercosis (NCC) worldwide. Methods/Principal Findings PubMed, Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau (CAB) abstracts and 23 international databases were systematically searched for articles published from January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2008. Articles were evaluated for inclusion by at least two researchers focusing on study design and methods. Data were extracted independently using standardized forms. A random-effects binomial model was used to estimate the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy (PWE). Overall, 565 articles were retrieved and 290 (51%) selected for further analysis. After a second analytic phase, only 4.5% of articles, all of which used neuroimaging for the diagnosis of NCC, were reviewed. Only two studies, both from the US, estimated an incidence rate of NCC using hospital discharge data. The prevalence of NCC in a random sample of village residents was reported from one study where 9.1% of the population harboured brain lesions of NCC. The proportion of NCC among different study populations varied widely. However, the proportion of NCC in PWE was a lot more consistent. The pooled estimate for this population was 29.0% (95%CI: 22.9%–35.5%). These results were not sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular study. Conclusion/Significance Only one study has estimated the prevalence of NCC in a random sample of all residents. Hence, the prevalence of NCC worldwide remains unknown. However, the pooled estimate for the proportion of NCC among PWE was very robust and could be used, in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy, to estimate this component of the burden of NCC in endemic areas. The previously recommended guidelines for the diagnostic process and for declaring NCC an international reportable disease would improve the knowledge on the global frequency of NCC. PMID:21072231

A systematic review of the frequency of neurocyticercosis with a focus on people with epilepsy.

PubMed

Ndimubanzi, Patrick C; Carabin, Hélène; Budke, Christine M; Nguyen, Hai; Qian, Ying-Jun; Rainwater, Elizabeth; Dickey, Mary; Reynolds, Stephanie; Stoner, Julie A

2010-11-02

The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review of studies reporting the frequency of neurocysticercosis (NCC) worldwide. PubMed, Commonwealth Agricultural Bureau (CAB) abstracts and 23 international databases were systematically searched for articles published from January 1, 1990 to June 1, 2008. Articles were evaluated for inclusion by at least two researchers focusing on study design and methods. Data were extracted independently using standardized forms. A random-effects binomial model was used to estimate the proportion of NCC among people with epilepsy (PWE). Overall, 565 articles were retrieved and 290 (51%) selected for further analysis. After a second analytic phase, only 4.5% of articles, all of which used neuroimaging for the diagnosis of NCC, were reviewed. Only two studies, both from the US, estimated an incidence rate of NCC using hospital discharge data. The prevalence of NCC in a random sample of village residents was reported from one study where 9.1% of the population harboured brain lesions of NCC. The proportion of NCC among different study populations varied widely. However, the proportion of NCC in PWE was a lot more consistent. The pooled estimate for this population was 29.0% (95%CI: 22.9%-35.5%). These results were not sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular study. Only one study has estimated the prevalence of NCC in a random sample of all residents. Hence, the prevalence of NCC worldwide remains unknown. However, the pooled estimate for the proportion of NCC among PWE was very robust and could be used, in conjunction with estimates of the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy, to estimate this component of the burden of NCC in endemic areas. The previously recommended guidelines for the diagnostic process and for declaring NCC an international reportable disease would improve the knowledge on the global frequency of NCC.

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhu; Guan, Dabo; Wei, Wei; Davis, Steven J; Ciais, Philippe; Bai, Jin; Peng, Shushi; Zhang, Qiang; Hubacek, Klaus; Marland, Gregg; Andres, Robert J; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Lin, Jintai; Zhao, Hongyan; Hong, Chaopeng; Boden, Thomas A; Feng, Kuishuang; Peters, Glen P; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Junguo; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Yu; Zeng, Ning; He, Kebin

2015-08-20

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhu; Guan, Dabo; Wei, Wei; Davis, Steven J.; Ciais, Philippe; Bai, Jin; Peng, Shushi; Zhang, Qiang; Hubacek, Klaus; Marland, Gregg; Andres, Robert J.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Lin, Jintai; Zhao, Hongyan; Hong, Chaopeng; Boden, Thomas A.; Feng, Kuishuang; Peters, Glen P.; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Junguo; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Yu; Zeng, Ning; He, Kebin

2015-08-01

Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = +/-7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

Is the HIV epidemic stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV prevalence and risk behavior results from a nationally representative survey among men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G

2013-01-01

Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6-18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations.

Is the HIV Epidemic Stable among MSM in Mexico? HIV Prevalence and Risk Behavior Results from a Nationally Representative Survey among Men Who Have Sex with Men

PubMed Central

Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M. Arantxa; Romero, Martín; Conde-Glez, Carlos J.; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G.

2013-01-01

Background Recent evidence points to the apparent increase of HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) in different settings with concentrated epidemics, including the Latin American region. In 2011, Mexico implemented an ambitious HIV prevention program in all major cities, funded by the Global Fund to Fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria. The program was intended to strengthen the prevention response for the most at risk populations: MSM and injecting drug users. This paper presents the HIV prevalence results of a nationally representative baseline survey in 24 Mexican cities throughout the 5 regions in the country and reports the socio-demographic and sexual risk behaviors that predict the probability of infection. Methods The survey was implemented in two phases. We first identified and characterized places where MSM gather in each city and then conducted in a second phase, a seroprevalence survey that included rapid HIV testing and a self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of HIV was estimated by adjusting for positive predicted value. We applied a probit model to estimate the probability of having a positive result from the HIV test as a function of socio-demographic characteristics and self-reported sexual risk behaviors. Results We found an overall HIV prevalence among MSM gathering in meeting points of 16.9% [95% CI: 15.6–18.3], significantly higher than previously reported estimates. Our regression results suggest that the risk of infection increases with age, with the number of sexual partners, and among those who play a receptive sexual role, and the risk decreases with higher education. Discussion Our findings suggest a higher HIV prevalence among MSM than previously acknowledged and that a significant regional variability exist throughout the country. These two findings combined, signal an important dynamic in the epidemic that should be better understood and promptly addressed with strong prevention efforts targeted at key populations. PMID:24039786

Mixing effects on apparent reaction rates and isotope fractionation during denitrification in a heterogeneous aquifer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Christopher T.; Böhlke, John Karl; Bekins, Barbara A.; Phillips, Steven P.

2010-01-01

Gradients in contaminant concentrations and isotopic compositions commonly are used to derive reaction parameters for natural attenuation in aquifers. Differences between field‐scale (apparent) estimated reaction rates and isotopic fractionations and local‐scale (intrinsic) effects are poorly understood for complex natural systems. For a heterogeneous alluvial fan aquifer, numerical models and field observations were used to study the effects of physical heterogeneity on reaction parameter estimates. Field measurements included major ions, age tracers, stable isotopes, and dissolved gases. Parameters were estimated for the O2 reduction rate, denitrification rate, O2 threshold for denitrification, and stable N isotope fractionation during denitrification. For multiple geostatistical realizations of the aquifer, inverse modeling was used to establish reactive transport simulations that were consistent with field observations and served as a basis for numerical experiments to compare sample‐based estimates of “apparent” parameters with “true“ (intrinsic) values. For this aquifer, non‐Gaussian dispersion reduced the magnitudes of apparent reaction rates and isotope fractionations to a greater extent than Gaussian mixing alone. Apparent and true rate constants and fractionation parameters can differ by an order of magnitude or more, especially for samples subject to slow transport, long travel times, or rapid reactions. The effect of mixing on apparent N isotope fractionation potentially explains differences between previous laboratory and field estimates. Similarly, predicted effects on apparent O2threshold values for denitrification are consistent with previous reports of higher values in aquifers than in the laboratory. These results show that hydrogeological complexity substantially influences the interpretation and prediction of reactive transport.

Relation Between Estimated Cardiorespiratory Fitness and Atrial Fibrillation (from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke Study).

PubMed

Bose, Abhishek; O'Neal, Wesley T; Bennett, Aleena; Judd, Suzanne E; Qureshi, Waqas T; Sui, Xuemei; Howard, Virginia J; Howard, George; Soliman, Elsayed Z

2017-06-01

Estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (e-CRF) based on readily available clinical and self-reported data is a promising alternative to the costly traditional assessment of CRF using exercise equipment, but its role as a predictor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is unclear. This study included 10,126 participants (54.5% women, 35% African-American, mean age 63.2 years) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study who were free of AF at baseline. Baseline (2003 to 2007) e-CRF was determined using a previously validated nonexercise algorithm. Incident AF cases were identified at a follow-up examination by electrocardiogram and self-reported medical history of previous physician diagnosis. After a median follow-up of 9.4 years, 906 participants (8.9%) developed AF. In a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for sociodemographics and baseline cardiovascular disease risk factors as well as incident coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke, each 1-metabolic equivalent of task increase in e-CRF was associated with a 5% lower risk of AF development (odds ratio [95% CI] 0.95 [0.92 to 0.99]; p = 0.0129). This association was stronger in women (OR [95% CI] 0.85 (0.79, 0.92) than in men (OR (95% CI) 0.88 (0.84, 0.93), interaction p value = 0.05. No significant interactions by age, race, history of cardiovascular disease, or physical limitations were observed. In conclusion, e-CRF using a nonexercise algorithm is a useful predictor of incident AF, which is consistent with previous reports using traditional CRF. This suggests that e-CRF using nonexercise algorithms may serve as a useful alternative to CRF measured by costly and time-consuming exercise testing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of mega composite sampling and nationwide mass inventories for 26 previously unmonitored contaminants in archived biosolids from the U.S National Biosolids Repository

PubMed Central

Chari, Bipin P.; Halden, Rolf U.

2012-01-01

In the present study, archived U.S biosolids from the 2001 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Sewage Sludge Survey were analyzed with an expanded U.S EPA Method 1694, to determine the occurrence of 26 previously unmonitored pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) among a total of 120 analytes. The study further served to examine the reproducibility of a mega-composite approach for creating chemical mass inventories in biosolids based on pooled samples from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) nationwide. Five mega-composites reflecting 94 WWTPs in 32 states and the District of Columbia were constructed from archived biosolids and analyzed by LC/ESI-MS/MS using a newly introduced analytical method expanding upon U.S EPA Method 1694. In addition, soil-biosolids mixtures from a mesocosm setup were analyzed to experimentally determine the half-lives of biosolids-borne compounds applied on U.S land. Among 59 analytes detected, 33 had been reported previously, whereas 26 are reported in biosolids for the first time, at levels ranging from 1.65 to 673 μg kg−1 dry weight. Newly recognized biosolids constituents were identified as Ca2+ channel blockers, antidepressants, diuretics, β-blockers and analgesics. Using a mass balance approach, the total loading of these 26 pharmaceuticals to U.S soils from biosolids land application was estimated at 5–15 tons year−1. Past and present datasets for 30 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) were determined to be statistically indistinguishable (paired t-test; p = 0.01). This study expands the list of PPCPs reported in U.S biosolids, provides the first estimates of nationwide release rates to and environmental half-lives in U.S agricultural soils, and confirms the utility of using mega-composite sampling for economical tracking of chemical inventories in biosolids on a national scale. PMID:22789759

Epidemiology of forearm fractures in adults in Denmark: national age- and gender-specific incidence rates, ratio of forearm to hip fractures, and extent of surgical fracture repair in inpatients and outpatients.

PubMed

Abrahamsen, B; Jørgensen, N R; Schwarz, P

2015-01-01

National epidemiological studies of forearm fractures are scarce. We examined in- and outpatient rates in Denmark, including anatomical location, surgery, hospitalization ratio, recurrent fractures, and ratio of forearm to hip fractures. This may be useful for triangulation in countries with less detailed information. Rates were higher than previously estimated. Despite a significant contribution to the overall burden of osteoporotic, nonvertebral fractures, relatively little information is available about age- and gender-specific incidence rates for many countries including Denmark. We used national individual patient data on inpatient and outpatient treatment to calculate rates of forearm fractures, taking readmissions into account, with subtables for distal and proximal fractures. We also calculated ratios of forearm to hip fractures that may be useful when imputing forearm fracture rates from other administrative sources. In addition, we report the rates of hospital admission and the rates of surgical treatment, allowing readers to extrapolate from the number of admissions or surgical procedures to incidence rates, should their data sources be less comprehensive. Forearm fracture rates were 278 per 100,000 patient years in men aged 50+ and 1,110 per 100,000 in women aged 50+. The female to male incidence rate ratio was 4.0 for the age group 50+ but close to unity in persons aged 40 or under. Two thirds of patients were treated on an outpatient basis with little difference across age and gender strata. Four out of five fractures were treated conservatively. The rate of forearm fractures in Denmark was somewhat higher in both genders than recently imputed from hip fracture rates and were close to the rates previously reported in studies from Norway and Sweden. The rates of forearm fracture in Denmark are higher than previously estimated and very similar to the high risk reported from studies in Norway and Sweden.

Prevalence and tracking of back pain from childhood to adolescence

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background It is generally acknowledged that back pain (BP) is a common condition already in childhood. However, the development until early adulthood is not well understood and, in particular, not the individual tracking pattern. The objectives of this paper are to show the prevalence estimates of BP, low back pain (LBP), mid back pain (MBP), neck pain (NP), and care-seeking because of BP at three different ages (9, 13 and15 years) and how the BP reporting tracks over these age groups over three consecutive surveys. Methods A longitudinal cohort study was carried out from the years of 1997 till 2005, collecting interview data from children who were sampled to be representative of Danish schoolchildren. BP was defined overall and specifically in the three spinal regions as having reported pain within the past month. The prevalence estimates and the various patterns of BP reporting over time are presented as percentages. Results Of the 771 children sampled, 62%, 57%, and 58% participated in the three back surveys and 34% participated in all three. The prevalence estimates for children at the ages of 9, 13, and 15, respectively, were for BP 33%, 28%, and 48%; for LBP 4%, 22%, and 36%; for MBP 20%, 13%, and 35%; and for NP 10%, 7%, and 15%. Seeking care for BP increased from 6% and 8% at the two youngest ages to 34% at the oldest. Only 7% of the children who participated in all three surveys reported BP each time and 30% of these always reported no pain. The patterns of development differed for the three spinal regions and between genders. Status at the previous survey predicted status at the next survey, so that those who had pain before were more likely to report pain again and vice versa. This was most pronounced for care-seeking. Conclusion It was confirmed that BP starts early in life, but the patterns of onset and development over time vary for different parts of the spine and between genders. Because of these differences, it is recommended to report on BP in youngsters separately for the three spinal regions, and to differentiate in the analyses between the genders and age groups. Although only a small minority reported BP at two or all three surveys, tracking of BP (particularly NP) and care seeking was noted from one survey to the other. On the positive side, individuals without BP at a previous survey were likely to remain pain free at the subsequent survey. PMID:21575251

Unreported workers' compensation claims to the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses: Establishment factors.

PubMed

Wuellner, Sara E; Adams, Darrin A; Bonauto, David K

2016-04-01

Studies suggest employers underreport injuries to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII); less is known about reporting differences by establishment characteristics. We linked SOII data to Washington State workers' compensation claims data, using unemployment insurance data to improve linking accuracy. We used multivariable regression models to estimate incidence ratios (IR) of unreported workers' compensation claims for establishment characteristics. An estimated 70% of workers' compensation claims were reported in SOII. Claims among state and local government establishments were most likely to be reported. Compared to large manufacturing establishments, unreported claims were most common among small educational services establishments (IR = 2.47, 95%CI: 1.52-4.01) and large construction establishments (IR = 2.05, 95%CI: 1.77-2.37). Underreporting of workers' compensation claims to SOII varies by establishment characteristics, obscuring true differences in work injury incidence. Findings may differ from previous research due to differences in study methods. © 2016 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Estimating earthquake magnitudes from reported intensities in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Cramer, Chris H.

2014-01-01

A new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is derived for the central and eastern United States and is used to estimate the magnitudes of the 1811–1812 New Madrid, Missouri, and 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquakes. This work improves upon previous derivations of intensity prediction equations by including additional intensity data, correcting magnitudes in the intensity datasets to moment magnitude, and accounting for the spatial and temporal population distributions. The new relation leads to moment magnitude estimates for the New Madrid earthquakes that are toward the lower range of previous studies. Depending on the intensity dataset to which the new macroseismic intensity prediction equation is applied, mean estimates for the 16 December 1811, 23 January 1812, and 7 February 1812 mainshocks, and 16 December 1811 dawn aftershock range from 6.9 to 7.1, 6.8 to 7.1, 7.3 to 7.6, and 6.3 to 6.5, respectively. One‐sigma uncertainties on any given estimate could be as high as 0.3–0.4 magnitude units. We also estimate a magnitude of 6.9±0.3 for the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake. We find a greater range of magnitude estimates when also accounting for multiple macroseismic intensity prediction equations. The inability to accurately and precisely ascertain magnitude from intensities increases the uncertainty of the central United States earthquake hazard by nearly a factor of two. Relative to the 2008 national seismic hazard maps, our range of possible 1811–1812 New Madrid earthquake magnitudes increases the coefficient of variation of seismic hazard estimates for Memphis, Tennessee, by 35%–42% for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 2% probability in 50 years and by 27%–35% for ground motions expected to be exceeded with a 10% probability in 50 years.

Estimating flood hydrographs for urban basins in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mason, R.R.; Bales, J.D.

1996-01-01

A dimensionless hydrograph for North Carolina was developed from data collected in 29 urban and urbanizing basins in the State. The dimen- sionless hydrograph can be used with an estimate of peak flow and basin lagtime to synthesize a design flood hydrograph for urban basins in North Carolina. Peak flows can be estimated from a number of avail- able techniques; a procedure for estimating basin lagtime from main channel length, stream slope, and percentage of impervious area was developed from data collected at 50 sites and is presented in this report. The North Carolina dimensionless hydrograph provides satis- factory predictions of flood hydrographs in all regions of the State except for basins in or near Asheville where the method overestimated 11 of 12 measured hydrographs. A previously developed dimensionless hydrograph for urban basins in the Piedmont and upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina provides better flood-hydrograph predictions for the Asheville basins and has a standard error of 21 percent as compared to 41 percent for the North Carolina dimensionless hydrograph.

Resistance of neonates and field-collected garter snakes (Thamnophis spp.) to tetrodotoxin.

PubMed

Ridenhour, Benjamin J; Brodie, Edmund D; Brodie, Edmund D

2004-01-01

Prior studies of tetrodotoxin (TTX) resistance in garter snakes (Thamnophis spp.) have used laboratory-reared neonates as subjects, but the use of field-caught individuals would reduce cost and effort. We compared estimates of TTX resistance in field-caught and laboratory-born garter snakes. We found that a mass-adjusted dose of TTX administered to field-caught garter snakes produces an estimate of a population 50% dose that is comparable and unbiased with respect to those previously reported using laboratory-born neonates. Dose-response curves estimated for three field-caught populations closely matched the curves estimated from neonate data. The method was tested using populations with levels of TTX resistance ranging between approximately 5-90 mass-adjusted mouse units for their respective 50% doses. The technique of using field-caught snakes as test subjects provides larger genetically independent data sets that are more easily obtained. Our results indicate that changes in mass during development parallel ontogenetic shifts in TTX resistance.

Current sources of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) in our atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherry, David; McCulloch, Archie; Liang, Qing; Reimann, Stefan; Newman, Paul A.

2018-02-01

Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 or CTC) is an ozone-depleting substance whose emissive uses are controlled and practically banned by the Montreal Protocol (MP). Nevertheless, previous work estimated ongoing emissions of 35 Gg year-1 of CCl4 into the atmosphere from observation-based methods, in stark contrast to emissions estimates of 3 (0-8) Gg year-1 from reported numbers to UNEP under the MP. Here we combine information on sources from industrial production processes and legacy emissions from contaminated sites to provide an updated bottom-up estimate on current CTC global emissions of 15-25 Gg year-1. We now propose 13 Gg year-1 of global emissions from unreported non-feedstock emissions from chloromethane and perchloroethylene plants as the most significant CCl4 source. Additionally, 2 Gg year-1 are estimated as fugitive emissions from the usage of CTC as feedstock and possibly up to 10 Gg year-1 from legacy emissions and chlor-alkali plants.

Experimental measure of arm stiffness during single reaching movements with a time-frequency analysis

PubMed Central

Pierobon, Alberto; DiZio, Paul; Lackner, James R.

2013-01-01

We tested an innovative method to estimate joint stiffness and damping during multijoint unfettered arm movements. The technique employs impulsive perturbations and a time-frequency analysis to estimate the arm's mechanical properties along a reaching trajectory. Each single impulsive perturbation provides a continuous estimation on a single-reach basis, making our method ideal to investigate motor adaptation in the presence of force fields and to study the control of movement in impaired individuals with limited kinematic repeatability. In contrast with previous dynamic stiffness studies, we found that stiffness varies during movement, achieving levels higher than during static postural control. High stiffness was associated with elevated reflexive activity. We observed a decrease in stiffness and a marked reduction in long-latency reflexes around the reaching movement velocity peak. This pattern could partly explain the difference between the high stiffness reported in postural studies and the low stiffness measured in dynamic estimation studies, where perturbations are typically applied near the peak velocity point. PMID:23945781

Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.

2014-01-01

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

Pleomorphic dermal sarcoma: a more aggressive neoplasm than previously estimated.

PubMed

Tardío, Juan C; Pinedo, Fernando; Aramburu, José A; Suárez-Massa, Dolores; Pampín, Ana; Requena, Luis; Santonja, Carlos

2016-02-01

Pleomorphic dermal sarcoma (PDS) is a rare neoplasm sharing pathological features with atypical fibroxanthoma, but adding tumor necrosis, invasion beyond superficial subcutis or vascular or perineural infiltration. Although its metastatic risk has been estimated to be less than 5%, its real outcome is presently uncertain because of its rarity and to the lack of homogeneous criteria used in reported cases. Retrospective clinicopathological study of 18 cases of PDS. The lesions presented as tumors or plaques (size: 7-70 mm) on the head of elderly patients (median: 81 years), without a gender predominance. Histopathologically, they consisted of spindle cells arranged in a fascicular pattern, containing pleomorphic epithelioid and giant multinucleated cells in varying proportions, and usually exhibiting numerous mitotic figures and infiltrative tumor margins. No immunoexpression for cytokeratins, S100 protein, desmin or CD34 was observed. Necrosis and venous invasion were found in three tumors each (17%). Follow-up was available in 15 cases (median: 33 months). Three patients (20%) had local recurrences, all with incomplete primary surgical resections. Three patients (20%) developed distant metastases in the skin, regional lymph nodes and/or lungs and died from the disease. Our data suggest that PDS may be a more aggressive neoplasm than previously estimated. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Societal economic costs and benefits from death: another look.

PubMed

Stack, Steven

2007-04-01

B. Yang and D. Lester (2007) have produced an innovative contribution to the relevant literature. Unlike previous studies, they incorporate estimates of cost savings from suicide. Their argument could be strengthened in 3 ways. First, they may have underestimated some of the cost savings by relying on inflated estimates of mental health usage by suicidal persons. The present analysis shows that only 20% of suicidal individuals see a mental health professional during the last year of life, much lower than previous estimates. Further, persons dying of cancer are 4 times more likely than suicides to report high usage of medical services. Second, our economy relies heavily on the health care sector for job creation, so that we need to exercise caution in interpreting savings in medical care; such savings may also represent costs in employment opportunities for nurses, doctors, and other medical personnel. Third, an anticipated criticism, the costs of the grieving of significant others, needs to be considered. Suicidal persons are shown to have less dense social networks, a sign of fewer potential grievers than in the case of natural deaths. Future work is needed to adjust lost earnings for the lower occupational status of suicides; this is another reason why Yang and Lester may be underestimating cost savings from suicide.

Unreported concussion in high school football players: implications for prevention.

PubMed

McCrea, Michael; Hammeke, Thomas; Olsen, Gary; Leo, Peter; Guskiewicz, Kevin

2004-01-01

To investigate the frequency of unreported concussion and estimate more accurately the overall rate of concussion in high school football players. Retrospective, confidential survey completed by all subjects at the end of the football season. A total of 1,532 varsity football players from 20 high schools in the Milwaukee, Wisconsin, area were surveyed. The structured survey assessed (1) number of concussions before the current season, (2) number of concussions sustained during the current season, (3) whether concussion during the current season was reported, (4) to whom concussion was reported, and (5) reasons for not reporting concussion. Of respondents, 29.9% reported a previous history of concussion, and 15.3% reported sustaining a concussion during the current football season; of those, 47.3% reported their injury. Concussions were reported most frequently to a certified athletic trainer (76.7% of reported injuries). The most common reasons for concussion not being reported included a player not thinking the injury was serious enough to warrant medical attention (66.4% of unreported injuries), motivation not to be withheld from competition (41.0%), and lack of awareness of probable concussion (36.1%). These findings reflect a higher prevalence of concussion in high school football players than previously reported in the literature. The ultimate concern associated with unreported concussion is an athlete's increased risk of cumulative or catastrophic effects from recurrent injury. Future prevention initiatives should focus on education to improve athlete awareness of the signs of concussion and potential risks of unreported injury.

Adolescent chronic fatigue syndrome: prevalence, incidence, and morbidity.

PubMed

Nijhof, Sanne L; Maijer, Kimberley; Bleijenberg, Gijs; Uiterwaal, Cuno S P M; Kimpen, Jan L L; van de Putte, Elise M

2011-05-01

To determine nationwide general practitioner (GP)-diagnosed prevalence and pediatrician-diagnosed incidence rates of adolescent chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), and to assess CFS morbidity. We collected data from a cross-sectional national sample among GPs and prospective registration of new patients with CFS in all pediatric hospital departments in the Netherlands. Study participants were adolescents aged 10 to 18 years. A representative sample of GPs completed questionnaires on the prevalence of CFS in their adolescent patients. Pediatric hospital departments prospectively reported new cases of CFS in adolescent patients. For every new reported case, a questionnaire was sent to the reporting pediatrician and the reported patient to assess CFS morbidity. Prevalence was estimated through the data from GP questionnaires and incidence was estimated on the basis of cases newly reported by pediatricians from January to December 2008. Prevalence was calculated as 111 per 100 000 adolescents and incidence as 12 per 100 000 adolescents per year. Of newly reported patients with CFS, 91% scored at or above cutoff points for severe fatigue and 93% at or above the cutoff points for physical impairment. Forty-five percent of patients with CFS reported >50% school absence during the previous 6 months. Clinically diagnosed incidence and prevalence rates show that adolescent CFS is uncommon compared with chronic fatigue. The primary adverse impact of CFS is extreme disability associated with considerable school absence.

Race, Ethnicity, and Self-Reported Hypertension: Analysis of Data From the National Health Interview Survey, 1997–2005

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Objective. I estimated the association between race and self-reported hypertension among Hispanics and non-Hispanics and determined whether this association was stronger among non-Hispanics. Methods. With data from the 1997–2005 National Health Interview Survey, I used logistic regression to estimate the strength of the association between race/ethnicity and self-reported hypertension among US adults. Results. The overall prevalence of self-reported hypertension was 24.5%, with lower prevalence among Hispanics (16.7%) than among non-Hispanics (25.2%; P < .01). Blacks, regardless of ethnicity, had the highest prevalence. Compared with non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks had 48% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.48; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41, 1.55) greater odds of reporting hypertension; Hispanic Whites had 23% (OR = 0.81; 95% CI = 0.76, 0.88) lower odds. There was no difference in the strength of the association between race and self-reported hypertension observed among non-Hispanics (OR for Blacks = 1.47) and among Hispanics (OR for Blacks = 1.20; for interaction, P = 0.43). Conclusions. The previously reported hypertension advantage of Hispanics holds for Hispanic Whites only. As Hispanics continue their rapid growth in the United States, race may have important implications on their disease burden, because most US health disparities are driven by race and its socially patterned experiences. PMID:19059869

How Well Does the American Community Survey Count Naturalized Citizens?

PubMed Central

Van Hook, Jennifer; Bachmeier, James D.

2013-01-01

Background Citizenship status among the foreign born is a crucial indicator of social and political incorporation, yet there are good reasons to suspect that citizenship status is inaccurately reported on U.S. surveys. Objective This paper updates research carried out in the mid-1990s by Passel and Clark (1997) on the extent to which foreign-born non-citizen respondents in U.S. government-sponsored surveys misreport as naturalized citizens. Methods We compare demographic estimates of the resident naturalized foreign-born population in 2010, based on administrative data, to estimates from the 2010 American Community Survey (ACS). Results Similar to previous research, we find that misreporting in the ACS is especially high among immigrants from all countries/regions who report fewer than five years in the U.S. We also find that among longer-term foreign-born residents, misreporting is concentrated only among those originating in Mexico, especially men, a finding that diverges from Passel and Clark in that we find no evidence of over-reporting among immigrants from Central America and the Caribbean. Finally, the estimated magnitude of misreporting, especially among longer-term Mexican-born men, is sensitive to assumptions about the rate of emigration in our administrative-based demographic estimates, and assumptions about coverage error in the ACS, though altering these assumptions does not change the conclusions drawn from the general patterns of the results. Conclusions For applications that use citizenship as an indicator of legal status, we recommend that self-reported data on citizenship be accepted at face value for all groups except those with less than five years of U.S. residence and Mexican men. PMID:24078792

Techniques for estimating flood-peak discharges of rural, unregulated streams in Ohio

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koltun, G.F.

2003-01-01

Regional equations for estimating 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood-peak discharges at ungaged sites on rural, unregulated streams in Ohio were developed by means of ordinary and generalized least-squares (GLS) regression techniques. One-variable, simple equations and three-variable, full-model equations were developed on the basis of selected basin characteristics and flood-frequency estimates determined for 305 streamflow-gaging stations in Ohio and adjacent states. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from about 39 to 49 percent for the simple equations, and from about 34 to 41 percent for the full-model equations. Flood-frequency estimates determined by means of log-Pearson Type III analyses are reported along with weighted flood-frequency estimates, computed as a function of the log-Pearson Type III estimates and the regression estimates. Values of explanatory variables used in the regression models were determined from digital spatial data sets by means of a geographic information system (GIS), with the exception of drainage area, which was determined by digitizing the area within basin boundaries manually delineated on topographic maps. Use of GIS-based explanatory variables represents a major departure in methodology from that described in previous reports on estimating flood-frequency characteristics of Ohio streams. Examples are presented illustrating application of the regression equations to ungaged sites on ungaged and gaged streams. A method is provided to adjust regression estimates for ungaged sites by use of weighted and regression estimates for a gaged site on the same stream. A region-of-influence method, which employs a computer program to estimate flood-frequency characteristics for ungaged sites based on data from gaged sites with similar characteristics, was also tested and compared to the GLS full-model equations. For all recurrence intervals, the GLS full-model equations had superior prediction accuracy relative to the simple equations and therefore are recommended for use.

Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change. Volume II, Part 14. Research needed to determine the present carbon balance of northern ecosystems and the potential effect of carbon-dioxide-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, P.C.

1982-10-01

Given the potential significance of northern ecosystems to the global carbon budget it is critical to estimate the current carbon balance of these ecosystems as precisely as possible, to improve estimates of the future carbon balance if world climates change, and to assess the range of certainty associated with these estimates. As a first step toward quantifying some of the potential changes, a workshop with tundra and taiga ecologists and soil scientists was held in San Diego in March 1980. The first part of this report summarizes the conclusions of this workshop with regard to the estimate of the currentmore » areal extent and carbon content of the circumpolar arctic and the taiga, current rates of carbon accumulation in the peat in the arctic and the taiga, and predicted future carbon accumulation rates based on the present understanding of controlling processes and on the understanding of past climates and vegetation. This report presents a finer resolution of areal extents, standing crops, and production rates than was possible previously because of recent syntheses of data from the International Biological Program and current studies in the northern ecosystems, some of which have not yet been published. This recent information changes most of the earlier estimates of carbon content and affects predictions of the effect of climate change. The second part of this report outlines research needed to fill major gaps in the understanding of the role of northern ecosystems in global climate change.« less

Estimation of the global burden of mesothelioma deaths from incomplete national mortality data.

PubMed

Odgerel, Chimed-Ochir; Takahashi, Ken; Sorahan, Tom; Driscoll, Tim; Fitzmaurice, Christina; Yoko-O, Makoto; Sawanyawisuth, Kittisak; Furuya, Sugio; Tanaka, Fumihiro; Horie, Seichi; Zandwijk, Nico van; Takala, Jukka

2017-12-01

Mesothelioma is increasingly recognised as a global health issue and the assessment of its global burden is warranted. To descriptively analyse national mortality data and to use reported and estimated data to calculate the global burden of mesothelioma deaths. For the study period of 1994 to 2014, we grouped 230 countries into 59 countries with quality mesothelioma mortality data suitable to be used for reference rates, 45 countries with poor quality data and 126 countries with no data, based on the availability of data in the WHO Mortality Database. To estimate global deaths, we extrapolated the gender-specific and age-specific mortality rates of the countries with quality data to all other countries. The global numbers and rates of mesothelioma deaths have increased over time. The 59 countries with quality data recorded 15 011 mesothelioma deaths per year over the 3 most recent years with available data (equivalent to 9.9 deaths per million per year). From these reference data, we extrapolated the global mesothelioma deaths to be 38 400 per year, based on extrapolations for asbestos use. Although the validity of our extrapolation method depends on the adequate identification of quality mesothelioma data and appropriate adjustment for other variables, our estimates can be updated, refined and verified because they are based on commonly accessible data and are derived using a straightforward algorithm. Our estimates are within the range of previously reported values but higher than the most recently reported values. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Suicide risk assessment: Trust an implicit probe or listen to the patient?

PubMed

Harrison, Dominique P; Stritzke, Werner G K; Fay, Nicolas; Hudaib, Abdul-Rahman

2018-05-21

Previous research suggests implicit cognition can predict suicidal behavior. This study examined the utility of the death/suicide implicit association test (d/s-IAT) in acute and prospective assessment of suicide risk and protective factors, relative to clinician and patient estimates of future suicide risk. Patients (N = 128; 79 female; 111 Caucasian) presenting to an emergency department were recruited if they reported current suicidal ideation or had been admitted because of an acute suicide attempt. Patients completed the d/s-IAT and self-report measures assessing three death-promoting (e.g., suicide ideation) and two life-sustaining (e.g., zest for life) factors, with self-report measures completed again at 3- and 6-month follow-ups. The clinician and patient provided risk estimates of that patient making a suicide attempt within the next 6 months. Results showed that among current attempters, the d/s-IAT differentiated between first time and multiple attempters; with multiple attempters having significantly weaker self-associations with life relative to death. The d/s-IAT was associated with concurrent suicidal ideation and zest for life, but only predicted the desire to die prospectively at 3 months. By contrast, clinician and patient estimates predicted suicide risk at 3- and 6-month follow-up, with clinician estimates predicting death-promoting factors, and only patient estimates predicting life-sustaining factors. The utility of the d/s-IAT was more pronounced in the assessment of concurrent risk. Prospectively, clinician and patient predictions complemented each other in predicting suicide risk and resilience, respectively. Our findings indicate collaborative rather than implicit approaches add greater value to the management of risk and recovery in suicidal patients. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Methods to assess geological CO2 storage capacity: Status and best practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heidug, Wolf; Brennan, Sean T.; Holloway, Sam; Warwick, Peter D.; McCoy, Sean; Yoshimura, Tsukasa

2013-01-01

To understand the emission reduction potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS), decision makers need to understand the amount of CO2 that can be safely stored in the subsurface and the geographical distribution of storage resources. Estimates of storage resources need to be made using reliable and consistent methods. Previous estimates of CO2 storage potential for a range of countries and regions have been based on a variety of methodologies resulting in a correspondingly wide range of estimates. Consequently, there has been uncertainty about which of the methodologies were most appropriate in given settings, and whether the estimates produced by these methods were useful to policy makers trying to determine the appropriate role of CCS. In 2011, the IEA convened two workshops which brought together experts for six national surveys organisations to review CO2 storage assessment methodologies and make recommendations on how to harmonise CO2 storage estimates worldwide. This report presents the findings of these workshops and an internationally shared guideline for quantifying CO2 storage resources.

Data challenges in estimating the capacity value of solar photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Lastly, our analysis also suggests that multiple years’ historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Data Challenges in Estimating the Capacity Value of Solar Photovoltaics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Our analysis also suggests that multiple years' historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Data challenges in estimating the capacity value of solar photovoltaics

DOE PAGES

Gami, Dhruv; Sioshansi, Ramteen; Denholm, Paul

2017-04-30

We examine the robustness of solar capacity-value estimates to three important data issues. The first is the sensitivity to using hourly averaged as opposed to subhourly solar-insolation data. The second is the sensitivity to errors in recording and interpreting load data. The third is the sensitivity to using modeled as opposed to measured solar-insolation data. We demonstrate that capacity-value estimates of solar are sensitive to all three of these factors, with potentially large errors in the capacity-value estimate in a particular year. If multiple years of data are available, the biases introduced by using hourly averaged solar-insolation can be smoothedmore » out. Multiple years of data will not necessarily address the other data-related issues that we examine. Our analysis calls into question the accuracy of a number of solar capacity-value estimates relying exclusively on modeled solar-insolation data that are reported in the literature (including our own previous works). Lastly, our analysis also suggests that multiple years’ historical data should be used for remunerating solar generators for their capacity value in organized wholesale electricity markets.« less

Genetic diversity and mutation of avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (Newcastle disease virus) in wild birds and evidence for intercontinental spread

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ramey, Andy M.; Reeves, Andrew B.; Ogawa, Haruko; Ip, Hon S.; Imai, Kunitoshi; Bui, V. N.; Yamaguchi, Emi; Silko, N. Y.; Afonso, C.L.

2013-01-01

Avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (APMV-1), or Newcastle disease virus, is the causative agent of Newcastle disease, one of the most economically important diseases for poultry production worldwide and a cause of periodic epizootics in wild birds in North America. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity of APMV-1 isolated from migratory birds sampled in Alaska, Japan, and Russia and assessed the evidence for intercontinental virus spread using phylogenetic methods. Additionally, we predicted viral virulence using deduced amino acid residues for the fusion protein cleavage site and estimated mutation rates for the fusion gene of class I and class II migratory bird isolates. All 73 isolates sequenced as part of this study were most closely related to virus genotypes previously reported for wild birds; however, five class II genotype I isolates formed a monophyletic clade exhibiting previously unreported genetic diversity, which met criteria for the designation of a new sub-genotype. Phylogenetic analysis of wild-bird isolates provided evidence for intercontinental virus spread, specifically viral lineages of APMV-1 class II genotype I sub-genotypes Ib and Ic. This result supports migratory bird movement as a possible mechanism for the redistribution of APMV-1. None of the predicted deduced amino acid motifs for the fusion protein cleavage site of APMV-1 strains isolated from migratory birds in Alaska, Japan, and Russia were consistent with those of previously identified virulent viruses. These data therefore provide no support for these strains contributing to the emergence of avian pathogens. The estimated mutation rates for fusion genes of class I and class II wild-bird isolates were faster than those reported previously for non-virulent APMV-1 strains. Collectively, these findings provide new insight into the diversity, spread, and evolution of APMV-1 in wild birds.

Genetic diversity and mutation of avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (Newcastle disease virus) in wild birds and evidence for intercontinental spread.

PubMed

Ramey, Andrew M; Reeves, Andrew B; Ogawa, Haruko; Ip, Hon S; Imai, Kunitoshi; Bui, Vuong Nghia; Yamaguchi, Emi; Silko, Nikita Y; Afonso, Claudio L

2013-12-01

Avian paramyxovirus serotype 1 (APMV-1), or Newcastle disease virus, is the causative agent of Newcastle disease, one of the most economically important diseases for poultry production worldwide and a cause of periodic epizootics in wild birds in North America. In this study, we examined the genetic diversity of APMV-1 isolated from migratory birds sampled in Alaska, Japan, and Russia and assessed the evidence for intercontinental virus spread using phylogenetic methods. Additionally, we predicted viral virulence using deduced amino acid residues for the fusion protein cleavage site and estimated mutation rates for the fusion gene of class I and class II migratory bird isolates. All 73 isolates sequenced as part of this study were most closely related to virus genotypes previously reported for wild birds; however, five class II genotype I isolates formed a monophyletic clade exhibiting previously unreported genetic diversity, which met criteria for the designation of a new sub-genotype. Phylogenetic analysis of wild-bird isolates provided evidence for intercontinental virus spread, specifically viral lineages of APMV-1 class II genotype I sub-genotypes Ib and Ic. This result supports migratory bird movement as a possible mechanism for the redistribution of APMV-1. None of the predicted deduced amino acid motifs for the fusion protein cleavage site of APMV-1 strains isolated from migratory birds in Alaska, Japan, and Russia were consistent with those of previously identified virulent viruses. These data therefore provide no support for these strains contributing to the emergence of avian pathogens. The estimated mutation rates for fusion genes of class I and class II wild-bird isolates were faster than those reported previously for non-virulent APMV-1 strains. Collectively, these findings provide new insight into the diversity, spread, and evolution of APMV-1 in wild birds.

Superconductivity in the Nb-Ru-Ge σ phase

DOE PAGES

Carnicom, Elizabeth M.; Xie, Weiwei; Sobczak, Zuzanna; ...

2017-12-07

Here, we show that the previously unreported ternary σ-phase material Nb 20.4Ru 5.7Ge 3.9 (Nb 0.68Ru 0.19Ge 0.13) is a superconductor with a critical temperature of 2.2 K. Temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility, resistance, and specific heat measurements were used to characterize the superconducting transition. The Sommerfeld constant γ for Nb 20.4Ru 5.7Ge 3.9 is 91 mJ mol-f.u. -1K -2 (~3 mJ mol-atom -1K -2) and the specific heat anomaly at the superconducting transition, ΔC/γT c, is approximately 1.38. The zero-temperature upper critical field (µ 0Hc 2(0)) was estimated to be 2 T by resistance data. Field-dependent magnetization data analysis estimated µmore » 0Hc 1(0) to be 5.5 mT. Thus, the characterization shows Nb 20.4Ru 5.7Ge 3.9 to be a type II BCS superconductor. This material appears to be the first reported ternary phase in the Nb-Ru-Ge system, and the fact that there are no previously reported binary Nb-Ru, Nb-Ge, or Ru-Ge σ-phases shows that all three elements are necessary to stabilize the material. An analogous σ-phase in the Ta-Ru-Ge system did not display superconductivity above 1.7 K, which suggests that electron count cannot govern the superconductivity observed. Preliminary characterization of a possible superconducting σ-phase in the Nb-Ru-Ga system is also reported.« less

Estimating the energetic cost of feeding excess dietary nitrogen to dairy cows.

PubMed

Reed, K F; Bonfá, H C; Dijkstra, J; Casper, D P; Kebreab, E

2017-09-01

Feeding N in excess of requirement could require the use of additional energy to metabolize excess protein, and to synthesize and excrete urea; however, the amount and fate of this energy is unknown. Little progress has been made on this topic in recent decades, so an extension of work published in 1970 was conducted to quantify the effect of excess N on ruminant energetics. In part 1 of this study, the results of previous work were replicated using a simple linear regression to estimate the effect of excess N on energy balance. In part 2, mixed model methodology and a larger data set were used to improve upon the previously reported linear regression methods. In part 3, heat production, retained energy, and milk energy replaced the composite energy balance variable previously proposed as the dependent variable to narrow the effect of excess N. In addition, rumen degradable and undegradable protein intakes were estimated using table values and included as covariates in part 3. Excess N had opposite and approximately equal effects on heat production (+4.1 to +7.6 kcal/g of excess N) and retained energy (-4.2 to -6.6 kcal/g of excess N) but had a larger negative effect on milk gross energy (-52 to -68 kcal/g of excess N). The results suggest that feeding excess N increases heat production, but more investigation is required to determine why excess N has such a large effect on milk gross energy production. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Consumption of whole grains and cereal fiber in relation to cancer risk: a systematic review of longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Makarem, Nour; Nicholson, Joseph M.; Bandera, Elisa V.; McKeown, Nicola M.

2016-01-01

Context: Evidence from previous reviews is supportive of the hypothesis that whole grains may protect against various cancers. However, the reviews did not report risk estimates for both whole grains and cereal fiber and only case–control studies were evaluated. It is unclear whether longitudinal studies support this conclusion. Objective: To evaluate associations between whole grains and cereal fiber in relation to risk of lifestyle-related cancers data from longitudinal studies was evaluated. Data Sources: The following 3 databases were systematically searched: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL. Study Selection: A total of 43 longitudinal studies conducted in Europe and North America that reported multivariable-adjusted risk estimates for whole grains (n = 14), cereal fiber (n = 23), or both (n = 6) in relation to lifestyle-related cancers were included. Data Extraction: Information on study location, cohort name, follow-up duration, sample characteristics, dietary assessment method, risk estimates, and confounders was extracted. Data Synthesis: Of 20 studies examining whole grains and cancer, 6 studies reported a statistically significant 6%–47% reduction in risk, but 14 studies showed no association. Of 29 studies examining cereal fiber intake in relation to cancer, 8 showed a statistically significant 6%–49% reduction in risk, whereas 21 studies reported no association. Conclusions: This systematic review concludes that most studies were suggestive of a null association. Whole grains and cereal fiber may protect against gastrointestinal cancers, but these findings require confirmation in additional studies. PMID:27257283

Complaint Regarding the Use of Audit Results on a $1 Billion Missile Defense Agency Contract

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-12

None of the applicable FAR/DFARS clauses in the contract required withholds, nor did the PCO determine such was in the best interest of the...which PCO defaulted back to the previous report, 1201-2006L24010001, dated June 27, 2007 which states the Estimating System and internal control...Leonard, DCAA requested an extension to March 15, 2010. The PCO acknowledged and thanked DCAA for the update. While MDA acknowledged the request

1H, 13C and 19F NMR studies on fluorinated ethers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balonga, P. E.; Kowalewski, V. J.; Contreras, R. H.

The enflurane and ethoxyflurane 1H, 13C and 19F NMR spectra are examined—including sign determination of FF and FH couplings—and considered in the light of previously reported results for methoxyflurane. Conformational differences between methoxyflurane and the former two molecules are indicated by through space FH coupling constants and by the nonequivalence of geminal fluorine nuclei. Populations of conformers about the CC bond are estimated.

In vivo estimates of NO and CO conductance for haemoglobin and for lung transfer in humans.

PubMed

Guénard, Hervé Jean-Pierre; Martinot, Jean-Benoit; Martin, Sebastien; Maury, Bertrand; Lalande, Sophie; Kays, Christian

2016-07-01

Membrane conductance (Dm) and capillary lung volume (Vc) derived from NO and CO lung transfer measurements in humans depend on the blood conductance (θ) values of both gases. Many θ values have been proposed in the literature. In the present study, measurements of CO and NO transfer while breathing 15% or 21% O2 allowed the estimation of θNO and the calculation of the optimal equation relating 1/θCO to pulmonary capillary oxygen pressure (PcapO2). In 10 healthy subjects, the mean calculated θNO value was similar to the θNO value previously reported in the literature (4.5mmHgmin(-1)) provided that one among three θCO equations from the literature was chosen. Setting 1/θCO=a·PcapO2+b, optimal values of a and b could be chosen using two methods: 1) by minimizing the difference between Dm/Vc ratios for any PcapO2, 2) by establishing a linear equation relating a and b. Using these methods, we are proposing the equation 1/θCO=0.0062·PcapO2+1.16, which is similar to two equations previously reported in the literature. With this set of θ values, DmCO reached the morphometric range. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Fissile Assemblies Using Low-Efficiency Detection Systems

DOE PAGES

Chapline, George F.; Verbeke, Jerome M.

2017-02-02

Here, we have investigated the possibility that the amount, chemical form, multiplication, and shape of the fissile material in an assembly can be passively assayed using scintillator detection systems by only measuring the fast neutron pulse height distribution and distribution of time intervals Δt between fast neutrons. We have previously demonstrated that the alpha-ratio can be obtained from the observed pulse height distribution for fast neutrons. In this paper we report that we report that when the distribution of time intervals is plotted as a function of logΔt, the position of the correlated neutron peak is nearly independent of detectormore » efficiency and determines the internal relaxation rate for fast neutrons. If this information is combined with knowledge of the alpha-ratio, then the position of the minimum between the correlated and uncorrelated peaks can be used to rapidly estimate the mass, multiplication, and shape of fissile material. This method does not require a priori knowledge of either the efficiency for neutron detection or the alpha-ratio. Although our method neglects 3-neutron correlations, we have used previously obtained experimental data for metallic and oxide forms of Pu to demonstrate that our method yields good estimates for multiplications as large as 2, and that the only constraint on detector efficiency/observation time is that a peak in the interval time distribution due to correlated neutrons is visible.« less

HIV Prevalence and Awareness of Positive Serostatus Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women in Bogotá, Colombia

PubMed Central

Reisen, Carol A.; María del Río-González, Ana; Bianchi, Fernanda T.; Ramirez-Valles, Jesus; Poppen, Paul J.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We estimated HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women in Bogotá, Colombia, and explored differences between HIV-positive individuals who are aware and unaware of their serostatus. Methods. In this cross-sectional 2011 study, we used respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit 1000 MSM and transgender women, who completed a computerized questionnaire and received an HIV test. Results. The RDS-adjusted prevalence was 12.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.7, 15.8), comparable to a previous RDS-derived estimate. Among HIV-positive participants, 39.7% (95% CI = 25.0, 54.8) were aware of their serostatus and 60.3% (95% CI = 45.2, 75.5) were unaware before this study. HIV-positive–unaware individuals were more likely to report inadequate insurance coverage, exchange sex (i.e., sexual intercourse in exchange for money, goods, or services), and substance use than other participants. HIV-positive–aware participants were least likely to have had condomless anal intercourse in the previous 3 months. Regardless of awareness, HIV-positive participants reported more violence and forced relocation experiences than HIV-negative participants. Conclusions. There is an urgent need to increase HIV detection among MSM and transgender women in Bogotá. HIV-positive–unaware group characteristics suggest an important role for structural, social, and individual interventions. PMID:25602899

Making (up) the grade? estimating the genetic and environmental influences of discrepancies between self-reported grades and official GPA scores.

PubMed

Schwartz, Joseph A; Beaver, Kevin M

2015-05-01

Academic achievement has been found to have a pervasive and substantial impact on a wide range of developmental outcomes and has also been implicated in the critical transition from adolescence into early adulthood. Previous research has revealed that self-reported grades tend to diverge from official transcript grade point average (GPA) scores, with students being more likely to report inflated scores. Making use of a sample of monozygotic twin (N = 282 pairs), dizygotic twin (N = 441 pairs), and full sibling (N = 1,757 pairs) pairs from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; 65 % White; 50 % male; mean age = 16.14), the current study is the first to investigate the role that genetic and environmental factors play in misreporting grade information. A comparison between self-reported GPA (mean score of 2.86) and official transcript GPA scores (mean score of 2.44) revealed that self-reported scores were approximately one-half letter grade greater than official scores. Liability threshold models revealed that additive genetic influences explained between 40 and 63 % of the variance in reporting inflated grades and correctly reporting GPA, with the remaining variance explained by the nonshared environment. Conversely, 100 % of the variance in reporting deflated grade information was explained by nonshared environmental influences. In an effort to identify specific nonshared environmental influences on reporting accuracy, multivariate models that adequately control for genetic influences were estimated and revealed that siblings with lower transcript GPA scores were significantly less likely to correctly report their GPA and significantly more likely to report inflated GPA scores. Additional analyses revealed that verbal IQ and self-control were not significantly associated with self-reported GPA accuracy after controlling for genetic influences. These findings indicate that previous studies that implicate verbal IQ and self-control as significant predictors of misreporting grade information may have been the result of model misspecification and genetic confounding. The findings from the current study indicate that genetic influences play a crucial role in the accuracy in which grade information is reported, but that nonshared environmental influences also play a significant role in specific circumstances. The theoretical and methodological implications of the results are discussed.

Human joint motion estimation for electromyography (EMG)-based dynamic motion control.

PubMed

Zhang, Qin; Hosoda, Ryo; Venture, Gentiane

2013-01-01

This study aims to investigate a joint motion estimation method from Electromyography (EMG) signals during dynamic movement. In most EMG-based humanoid or prosthetics control systems, EMG features were directly or indirectly used to trigger intended motions. However, both physiological and nonphysiological factors can influence EMG characteristics during dynamic movements, resulting in subject-specific, non-stationary and crosstalk problems. Particularly, when motion velocity and/or joint torque are not constrained, joint motion estimation from EMG signals are more challenging. In this paper, we propose a joint motion estimation method based on muscle activation recorded from a pair of agonist and antagonist muscles of the joint. A linear state-space model with multi input single output is proposed to map the muscle activity to joint motion. An adaptive estimation method is proposed to train the model. The estimation performance is evaluated in performing a single elbow flexion-extension movement in two subjects. All the results in two subjects at two load levels indicate the feasibility and suitability of the proposed method in joint motion estimation. The estimation root-mean-square error is within 8.3% ∼ 10.6%, which is lower than that being reported in several previous studies. Moreover, this method is able to overcome subject-specific problem and compensate non-stationary EMG properties.

Organic carbon burial in global lakes and reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mendonça, Raquel; Müller, Roger A.; Clow, David W.; Verpoorter, Charles; Raymond, Peter; Tranvik, Lars; Sobek, Sebastian

2017-01-01

Burial in sediments removes organic carbon (OC) from the short-term biosphere-atmosphere carbon (C) cycle, and therefore prevents greenhouse gas production in natural systems. Although OC burial in lakes and reservoirs is faster than in the ocean, the magnitude of inland water OC burial is not well constrained. Here we generate the first global-scale and regionally resolved estimate of modern OC burial in lakes and reservoirs, deriving from a comprehensive compilation of literature data. We coupled statistical models to inland water area inventories to estimate a yearly OC burial of 0.15 (range, 0.06–0.25) Pg C, of which ~40% is stored in reservoirs. Relatively higher OC burial rates are predicted for warm and dry regions. While we report lower burial than previously estimated, lake and reservoir OC burial corresponded to ~20% of their C emissions, making them an important C sink that is likely to increase with eutrophication and river damming.

USGS world petroleum assessment 2000; new estimates of undiscovered oil and natural gas, including reserve growth, outside the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2000-01-01

Oil and natural gas account for approximately 63 percent of the world’s total energy consumption. The U.S. Geological Survey periodically estimates the amount of oil and gas remaining to be found in the world. Since 1981, each of the last four of these assessments has shown a slight increase in the combined volume of identified reserves and undiscovered resources. The latest assessment estimates the volume of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas that may be added to the world's reserves, exclusive of the United States, in the next 30 years. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 reports an increase in global petroleum resources, including a 20-percent increase in undiscovered oil and a 14-percent decrease in undiscovered natural gas compared to the previous assessment (table 1). These results have important implications for energy prices, policy, security, and the global resource balance.

Estimating Sea Surface Temperature Measurement Methods Using Characteristic Differences in the Diurnal Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carella, G.; Kennedy, J. J.; Berry, D. I.; Hirahara, S.; Merchant, C. J.; Morak-Bozzo, S.; Kent, E. C.

2018-01-01

Lack of reliable observational metadata represents a key barrier to understanding sea surface temperature (SST) measurement biases, a large contributor to uncertainty in the global surface record. We present a method to identify SST measurement practice by comparing the observed SST diurnal cycle from individual ships with a reference from drifting buoys under similar conditions of wind and solar radiation. Compared to existing estimates, we found a larger number of engine room-intake (ERI) reports post-World War II and in the period 1960-1980. Differences in the inferred mixture of observations lead to a systematic warmer shift of the bias adjusted SST anomalies from 1980 compared to previous estimates, while reducing the ensemble spread. Changes in mean field differences between bucket and ERI SST anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1955-1995 could be as large as 0.5°C and are not well reproduced by current bias adjustment models.

V2676 Oph: Estimating Physical Parameters of a Moderately Fast Nova

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, A.; Pavana, M.; Kamath, U. S.; Anupama, G. C.; Walter, F. M.

2018-03-01

Using our previously reported observations, we derive some physical parameters of the moderately fast nova V2676 Oph 2012 #1. The best-fit Cloudy model of the nebular spectrum obtained on 2015 May 8 shows a hot white dwarf source with TBB≍1.0×105 K having a luminosity of 1.0×1038 erg/s. Our abundance analysis shows that the ejecta are significantly enhanced relative to solar, He/H=2.14, O/H=2.37, S/H=6.62 and Ar/H=3.25. The ejecta mass is estimated to be 1.42×10-5 M⊙. The nova showed a pronounced dust formation phase after 90 d from discovery. The J-H and H-K colors were very large as compared to other molecule- and dust-forming novae in recent years. The dust temperature and mass at two epochs have been estimated from spectral energy distribution fits to infrared photometry.

OCO-2 Solar-induced Fluorescence Data Portal and Applications to Crop Yield Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhai, A. J.; Jiang, J. H.; Frankenberg, C.; Yung, Y. L.; Choi, Y. S.

2016-12-01

Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is a direct byproduct of photosynthesis and is an index that can represent overall plant productivity level of any region around the globe. Recently, in 2014, NASA launched the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite, which collects SIF measurements at a higher spatial resolution than any previous instrument has. We have first assembled a web-based data portal, which can be easily utilized by both farmers and researchers, to allow convenient access to the SIF data from OCO-2. One possible use of SIF is to estimate agricultural status of crop fields anywhere in the world. We are using OCO-2 level 2 measurements in conjunction with the USDA's Cropland Data Layer and reported crop yield data to study how effectively SIF can estimate agricultural yield on various types of landscape and various species of crops. Results, methods, and future implications will be presented.

An international prospective cohort study of mobile phone users and health (COSMOS): Factors affecting validity of self-reported mobile phone use.

PubMed

Toledano, Mireille B; Auvinen, Anssi; Tettamanti, Giorgio; Cao, Yang; Feychting, Maria; Ahlbom, Anders; Fremling, Karin; Heinävaara, Sirpa; Kojo, Katja; Knowles, Gemma; Smith, Rachel B; Schüz, Joachim; Johansen, Christoffer; Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Deltour, Isabelle; Vermeulen, Roel; Kromhout, Hans; Elliott, Paul; Hillert, Lena

2018-01-01

This study investigates validity of self-reported mobile phone use in a subset of 75 993 adults from the COSMOS cohort study. Agreement between self-reported and operator-derived mobile call frequency and duration for a 3-month period was assessed using Cohen's weighted Kappa (κ). Sensitivity and specificity of both self-reported high (≥10 calls/day or ≥4h/week) and low (≤6 calls/week or <30min/week) mobile phone use were calculated, as compared to operator data. For users of one mobile phone, agreement was fair for call frequency (κ=0.35, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.36) and moderate for call duration (κ=0.50, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.50). Self-reported low call frequency and duration demonstrated high sensitivity (87% and 76% respectively), but for high call frequency and duration sensitivity was lower (38% and 56% respectively), reflecting a tendency for greater underestimation than overestimation. Validity of self-reported mobile phone use was lower in women, younger age groups and those reporting symptoms during/shortly after using a mobile phone. This study highlights the ongoing value of using self-report data to measure mobile phone use. Furthermore, compared to continuous scale estimates used by previous studies, categorical response options used in COSMOS appear to improve validity considerably, most likely by preventing unrealistically high estimates from being reported. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Development of posture-specific computational phantoms using motion capture technology and application to radiation dose-reconstruction for the 1999 Tokai-Mura nuclear criticality accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazquez, Justin A.; Caracappa, Peter F.; Xu, X. George

2014-09-01

The majority of existing computational phantoms are designed to represent workers in typical standing anatomical postures with fixed arm and leg positions. However, workers found in accident-related scenarios often assume varied postures. This paper describes the development and application of two phantoms with adjusted postures specified by data acquired from a motion capture system to simulate unique human postures found in a 1999 criticality accident that took place at a JCO facility in Tokai-Mura, Japan. In the course of this accident, two workers were fatally exposed to extremely high levels of radiation. Implementation of the emergent techniques discussed produced more accurate and more detailed dose estimates for the two workers than were reported in previous studies. A total-body dose of 6.43 and 26.38 Gy was estimated for the two workers, who assumed a crouching and a standing posture, respectively. Additionally, organ-specific dose estimates were determined, including a 7.93 Gy dose to the thyroid and 6.11 Gy dose to the stomach for the crouching worker and a 41.71 Gy dose to the liver and a 37.26 Gy dose to the stomach for the standing worker. Implications for the medical prognosis of the workers are discussed, and the results of this study were found to correlate better with the patient outcome than previous estimates, suggesting potential future applications of such methods for improved epidemiological studies involving next-generation computational phantom tools.

Development of posture-specific computational phantoms using motion capture technology and application to radiation dose-reconstruction for the 1999 Tokai-Mura nuclear criticality accident.

PubMed

Vazquez, Justin A; Caracappa, Peter F; Xu, X George

2014-09-21

The majority of existing computational phantoms are designed to represent workers in typical standing anatomical postures with fixed arm and leg positions. However, workers found in accident-related scenarios often assume varied postures. This paper describes the development and application of two phantoms with adjusted postures specified by data acquired from a motion capture system to simulate unique human postures found in a 1999 criticality accident that took place at a JCO facility in Tokai-Mura, Japan. In the course of this accident, two workers were fatally exposed to extremely high levels of radiation. Implementation of the emergent techniques discussed produced more accurate and more detailed dose estimates for the two workers than were reported in previous studies. A total-body dose of 6.43 and 26.38 Gy was estimated for the two workers, who assumed a crouching and a standing posture, respectively. Additionally, organ-specific dose estimates were determined, including a 7.93 Gy dose to the thyroid and 6.11 Gy dose to the stomach for the crouching worker and a 41.71 Gy dose to the liver and a 37.26 Gy dose to the stomach for the standing worker. Implications for the medical prognosis of the workers are discussed, and the results of this study were found to correlate better with the patient outcome than previous estimates, suggesting potential future applications of such methods for improved epidemiological studies involving next-generation computational phantom tools.

Partitioning of fluorotelomer alcohols to octanol and different sources of dissolved organic carbon.

PubMed

Carmosini, Nadia; Lee, Linda S

2008-09-01

Interest in the environmental fate of fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs) has spurred efforts to understand their equilibrium partitioning behavior. Experimentally determined partition coefficients for FTOHs between soil/water and air/water have been reported, but direct measurements of partition coefficients for dissolved organic carbon (DOC)/water (K(doc)) and octanol/ water(K(ow)) have been lacking. Here we measured the partitioning of 8:2 and 6:2 FTOH between one or more types of DOC and water using enhanced solubility or dialysis bag techniques, and also quantified K(ow) values for 4:2 to 8:2 FTOH using a batch equilibration method. The range in measured log K(doc) values for 8:2 FTOH using the enhanced solubility technique with DOC derived from two soils, two biosolids, and three reference humic acids is 2.00-3.97 with the lowest values obtained for the biosolids and an average across all other DOC sources (biosolid DOC excluded) of 3.54 +/- 0.29. For 6:2 FTOH and Aldrich humic acid, a log K(doc) value of 1.96 +/- 0.45 was measured using the dialysis technique. These average values are approximately 1 to 2 log units lower than previously indirectly estimated K(doc) values. Overall, the affinity for DOC tends to be slightly lower than that for particulate soil organic carbon. Measured log K(ow) values for 4:2 (3.30 +/- 0.04), 6:2 (4.54 +/- 0.01), and 8:2 FTOH (5.58 +/- 0.06) were in good agreement with previously reported estimates. Using relationships between experimentally measured partition coefficients and C-atom chain length, we estimated K(doc) and K(ow) values for shorter and longer chain FTOHs, respectively, that we were unable to measure experimentally.

Nursing student plans for the future after graduation: a multicentre study.

PubMed

Palese, A; Falomo, M; Brugnolli, A; Mecugni, D; Marognolli, O; Montalti, S; Tameni, A; Gonella, S; Dimonte, V

2017-03-01

When modelling the nursing workforce, estimations of the numbers and characteristics of new graduates over the forecast period are assumed on the basis of previous generations; however, new graduates may have different plans for their future than those documented previously in different socio-economical contexts. To explore (a) nursing student plans after graduation and factors influencing their plans, and (b) factors associated with the intention to emigrate. A survey questionnaire was developed and distributed to students attending their final third year of nursing education in seven universities in Italy in 2015. Nine hundred and twenty-three (90.4%) students participated. Four different plans after graduation emerged: about two-thirds reported an intention to look for a nursing job in Italy; the remaining reported (a) an intention to emigrate, looking for a nursing job abroad, (b) an intention to search for a nursing job in both Italy and abroad, and (c) while a few an intention to continue nursing education in Italy. Having previous experience abroad, the need to grow and be satisfied, trusting the target country and a desire to increase knowledge encouraged an intention to emigrate, whereas the desire to stay in a comfortable environment and nurture personal relationships prevented the desire to migrate. Nursing students may have different plans after graduation, and this should be considered when modelling the nursing workforce of the future. Policymakers should be aware of different plans after graduation to guide healthcare human resource strategies. Knowing these trajectories allows policymakers to estimate the appropriate nursing workforce, and also to act at both macro- and meso-levels, on work environments and opportunities for professional development, according to the different levels of expectations. © 2016 International Council of Nurses.

Hamaker constants of iron oxide nanoparticles.

PubMed

Faure, Bertrand; Salazar-Alvarez, German; Bergström, Lennart

2011-07-19

The Hamaker constants for iron oxide nanoparticles in various media have been calculated using Lifshitz theory. Expressions for the dielectric responses of three iron oxide phases (magnetite, maghemite, and hematite) were derived from recently published optical data. The nonretarded Hamaker constants for the iron oxide nanoparticles interacting across water, A(1w1) = 33 - 39 zJ, correlate relatively well with previous reports, whereas the calculated values in nonpolar solvents (hexane and toluene), A(131) = 9 - 29 zJ, are much lower than the previous estimates, particularly for magnetite. The magnitude of van der Waals interactions varies significantly between the studied phases (magnetite < maghemite < hematite), which highlights the importance of a thorough characterization of the particles. The contribution of magnetic dispersion interactions for particle sizes in the superparamagnetic regime was found to be negligible. Previous conjectures related to colloidal stability and self-assembly have been revisited on the basis of the new Lifshitz values of the Hamaker constants.

Predictors of Recall Certainty of Dates of Analgesic Medication Use in Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Radin, Rose G.; Mitchell, Allen A.; Werler, Martha M.

2012-01-01

Purpose Recalled dates of medication use are difficult to validate, particularly for over-the-counter (OTC) medications. We evaluated mothers’ recall certainty as an approximation of the accuracy of their recalled exposures. Methods We used data from the Slone Epidemiology Center Birth Defects Study collected by retrospective interview of women about pregnancy medication use. For each medication reported, women were asked to report the dates of their use and how certain they were of their reported dates. For this analysis, 32,107 reports from 14,577 analgesic users were categorized as ‘high’ or ‘low’ recall certainty if they considered a reported date as exact or estimated, respectively. Patterns of analgesic use, maternal demographics, and health behaviors were explored as predictors of high recall certainty of dates of analgesic use. We used log-binomial regression with the generalized estimating equations extension to account for multiple reports per subject in estimating prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals. Results Relative to episodes of short-term routine use (≥4 times/week for ≤30 days), high recall certainty was more likely for episodes of a single dose (prescription PR=1.92 (1.61, 2.27); OTC PR=3.65 (3.03, 4.40)) and less likely for episodes of occasional use (prescription PR=0.10 (0.05, 0.18); OTC PR=0.65 (0.53, 0.79)). The association of chronic routine use with high recall certainty was inverse among prescription analgesics and positive among OTC analgesics (prescription PR=0.56 (0.40, 0.80); OTC PR=2.46 (1.92, 3.42)). Conclusions Some characteristics that were associated with recall accuracy in previous studies were also associated with recall certainty in this study. PMID:22674801

Estimated anthropogenic nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the land surface of the conterminous United States--1992, 1997, and 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sprague, Lori A.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus to each county in the conterminous United States and to the watersheds of 495 surface-water sites studied as part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program were quantified for the years 1992, 1997, and 2002. Estimates of inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus from biological fixation by crops (for nitrogen only), human consumption, crop production for human consumption, animal production for human consumption, animal consumption, and crop production for animal consumption for each county are provided in a tabular dataset. These county-level estimates were allocated to the watersheds of the surface-water sites to estimate watershed-level inputs from the same sources; these estimates also are provided in a tabular dataset, together with calculated estimates of net import of food and net import of feed and previously published estimates of inputs from atmospheric deposition, fertilizer, and recoverable manure. The previously published inputs are provided for each watershed so that final estimates of total anthropogenic nutrient inputs could be calculated. Estimates of total anthropogenic inputs are presented together with previously published estimates of riverine loads of total nitrogen and total phosphorus for reference.

Comparison of methods used to estimate numbers of walruses on sea ice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Gilbert, James R.; Fedoseev, Gennadii A.

2001-01-01

The US and former USSR conducted joint surveys of Pacific walruses on sea ice and at land haul-outs in 1975, 1980, 1985, and 1990. One of the difficulties in interpreting results of these surveys has been that, except for the 1990 survey, the Americans and Soviets used different methods for estimating population size from their respective portions of the sea ice data. We used data exchanged between Soviet and American scientists to compare and evaluate the two estimation procedures and to derive a set of alternative estimates from the 1975, 1980, and 1985 surveys based on a single consistent procedure. Estimation method had only a small effect on total population estimates because most walruses were found at land haul-outs. However, the Soviet method is subject to bias that depends on the distribution of the population on the sea ice and this has important implications for interpreting the ice portions of previously reported surveys for walruses and other pinniped species. We recommend that the American method be used in future surveys. Future research on survey methods for walruses should focus on other potential sources of bias and variation.

Online Kinematic and Dynamic-State Estimation for Constrained Multibody Systems Based on IMUs

PubMed Central

Torres-Moreno, José Luis; Blanco-Claraco, José Luis; Giménez-Fernández, Antonio; Sanjurjo, Emilio; Naya, Miguel Ángel

2016-01-01

This article addresses the problems of online estimations of kinematic and dynamic states of a mechanism from a sequence of noisy measurements. In particular, we focus on a planar four-bar linkage equipped with inertial measurement units (IMUs). Firstly, we describe how the position, velocity, and acceleration of all parts of the mechanism can be derived from IMU signals by means of multibody kinematics. Next, we propose the novel idea of integrating the generic multibody dynamic equations into two variants of Kalman filtering, i.e., the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), in a way that enables us to handle closed-loop, constrained mechanisms, whose state space variables are not independent and would normally prevent the direct use of such estimators. The proposal in this work is to apply those estimators over the manifolds of allowed positions and velocities, by means of estimating a subset of independent coordinates only. The proposed techniques are experimentally validated on a testbed equipped with encoders as a means of establishing the ground-truth. Estimators are run online in real-time, a feature not matched by any previous procedure of those reported in the literature on multibody dynamics. PMID:26959027

Changing perceptions of United States natural-gas resources as shown by successive U. S. Department of the Interior assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoker, James W.; Dyman, Thaddeus S.

2001-01-01

Trends in four successive estimates of United States technically recoverable natural gas resources are examined in this report. The effective dates of these assessments were January 1 of 1975, 1980, 1987, and 1994. The 1994 estimate of the U.S. total gas endowment increased significantly over the previous three estimates, indicating that the technically recoverable endowment of gas is not an absolute volume, but rather is a quantity that can increase through time in response to advances in technology and in geologic understanding. Much of this increase was in the category of reserve growth. Reserve growth refers to additions to the estimated ultimate recovery of fields that typically occur as discovered fields are developed and produced. The potential for U.S. reserve growth, rather than being rapidly used up, appears to be sustainable for many years by intensive engineering efforts coupled with improving technology. Potential additions to reserves in continuous (unconventional) accumulations also represent a type of reserve growth, and were estimated (for the first time) in the 1994 assessment at 358 trillion cubic feet of gas. This resource category provides a significant new contribution to the estimated U.S. total gas endowment.

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry: analysis of pediatric fat estimate errors due to tissue hydration effects.

PubMed

Testolin, C G; Gore, R; Rivkin, T; Horlick, M; Arbo, J; Wang, Z; Chiumello, G; Heymsfield, S B

2000-12-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) percent (%) fat estimates may be inaccurate in young children, who typically have high tissue hydration levels. This study was designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of pediatric tissue hydration effects on DXA %fat estimates. Phase 1 was experimental and included three in vitro studies to establish the physical basis of DXA %fat-estimation models. Phase 2 extended phase 1 models and consisted of theoretical calculations to estimate the %fat errors emanating from previously reported pediatric hydration effects. Phase 1 experiments supported the two-compartment DXA soft tissue model and established that pixel ratio of low to high energy (R values) are a predictable function of tissue elemental content. In phase 2, modeling of reference body composition values from birth to age 120 mo revealed that %fat errors will arise if a "constant" adult lean soft tissue R value is applied to the pediatric population; the maximum %fat error, approximately 0.8%, would be present at birth. High tissue hydration, as observed in infants and young children, leads to errors in DXA %fat estimates. The magnitude of these errors based on theoretical calculations is small and may not be of clinical or research significance.

Fatality estimator user’s guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.; Som, Nicholas; Ladd, Lew

2012-12-11

Only carcasses judged to have been killed after the previous search should be included in the fatality data set submitted to this estimator software. This estimator already corrects for carcasses missed in previous searches, so carcasses judged to have been missed at least once should be considered “incidental” and not included in the fatality data set used to estimate fatality. Note: When observed carcass count is <5 (including 0 for species known to be at risk, but not observed), USGS Data Series 881 (http://pubs.usgs.gov/ds/0881/) is recommended for fatality estimation.

Computational correction of copy number effect improves specificity of CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens in cancer cells.

PubMed

Meyers, Robin M; Bryan, Jordan G; McFarland, James M; Weir, Barbara A; Sizemore, Ann E; Xu, Han; Dharia, Neekesh V; Montgomery, Phillip G; Cowley, Glenn S; Pantel, Sasha; Goodale, Amy; Lee, Yenarae; Ali, Levi D; Jiang, Guozhi; Lubonja, Rakela; Harrington, William F; Strickland, Matthew; Wu, Ting; Hawes, Derek C; Zhivich, Victor A; Wyatt, Meghan R; Kalani, Zohra; Chang, Jaime J; Okamoto, Michael; Stegmaier, Kimberly; Golub, Todd R; Boehm, Jesse S; Vazquez, Francisca; Root, David E; Hahn, William C; Tsherniak, Aviad

2017-12-01

The CRISPR-Cas9 system has revolutionized gene editing both at single genes and in multiplexed loss-of-function screens, thus enabling precise genome-scale identification of genes essential for proliferation and survival of cancer cells. However, previous studies have reported that a gene-independent antiproliferative effect of Cas9-mediated DNA cleavage confounds such measurement of genetic dependency, thereby leading to false-positive results in copy number-amplified regions. We developed CERES, a computational method to estimate gene-dependency levels from CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens while accounting for the copy number-specific effect. In our efforts to define a cancer dependency map, we performed genome-scale CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens across 342 cancer cell lines and applied CERES to this data set. We found that CERES decreased false-positive results and estimated sgRNA activity for both this data set and previously published screens performed with different sgRNA libraries. We further demonstrate the utility of this collection of screens, after CERES correction, for identifying cancer-type-specific vulnerabilities.

Computational correction of copy-number effect improves specificity of CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens in cancer cells

PubMed Central

Meyers, Robin M.; Bryan, Jordan G.; McFarland, James M.; Weir, Barbara A.; Sizemore, Ann E.; Xu, Han; Dharia, Neekesh V.; Montgomery, Phillip G.; Cowley, Glenn S.; Pantel, Sasha; Goodale, Amy; Lee, Yenarae; Ali, Levi D.; Jiang, Guozhi; Lubonja, Rakela; Harrington, William F.; Strickland, Matthew; Wu, Ting; Hawes, Derek C.; Zhivich, Victor A.; Wyatt, Meghan R.; Kalani, Zohra; Chang, Jaime J.; Okamoto, Michael; Stegmaier, Kimberly; Golub, Todd R.; Boehm, Jesse S.; Vazquez, Francisca; Root, David E.; Hahn, William C.; Tsherniak, Aviad

2017-01-01

The CRISPR-Cas9 system has revolutionized gene editing both on single genes and in multiplexed loss-of-function screens, enabling precise genome-scale identification of genes essential to proliferation and survival of cancer cells1,2. However, previous studies reported that a gene-independent anti-proliferative effect of Cas9-mediated DNA cleavage confounds such measurement of genetic dependency, leading to false positive results in copy number amplified regions3,4. We developed CERES, a computational method to estimate gene dependency levels from CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens while accounting for the copy-number-specific effect. As part of our efforts to define a cancer dependency map, we performed genome-scale CRISPR-Cas9 essentiality screens across 342 cancer cell lines and applied CERES to this dataset. We found that CERES reduced false positive results and estimated sgRNA activity for both this dataset and previously published screens performed with different sgRNA libraries. Here, we demonstrate the utility of this collection of screens, upon CERES correction, in revealing cancer-type-specific vulnerabilities. PMID:29083409

GRACE time-variable gravity field recovery using an improved energy balance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shang, Kun; Guo, Junyi; Shum, C. K.; Dai, Chunli; Luo, Jia

2015-12-01

A new approach based on energy conservation principle for satellite gravimetry mission has been developed and yields more accurate estimation of in situ geopotential difference observables using K-band ranging (KBR) measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite mission. This new approach preserves more gravity information sensed by KBR range-rate measurements and reduces orbit error as compared to previous energy balance methods. Results from analysis of 11 yr of GRACE data indicated that the resulting geopotential difference estimates agree well with predicted values from official Level 2 solutions: with much higher correlation at 0.9, as compared to 0.5-0.8 reported by previous published energy balance studies. We demonstrate that our approach produced a comparable time-variable gravity solution with the Level 2 solutions. The regional GRACE temporal gravity solutions over Greenland reveals that a substantially higher temporal resolution is achievable at 10-d sampling as compared to the official monthly solutions, but without the compromise of spatial resolution, nor the need to use regularization or post-processing.

A draft annotation and overview of the human genome

PubMed Central

Wright, Fred A; Lemon, William J; Zhao, Wei D; Sears, Russell; Zhuo, Degen; Wang, Jian-Ping; Yang, Hee-Yung; Baer, Troy; Stredney, Don; Spitzner, Joe; Stutz, Al; Krahe, Ralf; Yuan, Bo

2001-01-01

Background The recent draft assembly of the human genome provides a unified basis for describing genomic structure and function. The draft is sufficiently accurate to provide useful annotation, enabling direct observations of previously inferred biological phenomena. Results We report here a functionally annotated human gene index placed directly on the genome. The index is based on the integration of public transcript, protein, and mapping information, supplemented with computational prediction. We describe numerous global features of the genome and examine the relationship of various genetic maps with the assembly. In addition, initial sequence analysis reveals highly ordered chromosomal landscapes associated with paralogous gene clusters and distinct functional compartments. Finally, these annotation data were synthesized to produce observations of gene density and number that accord well with historical estimates. Such a global approach had previously been described only for chromosomes 21 and 22, which together account for 2.2% of the genome. Conclusions We estimate that the genome contains 65,000-75,000 transcriptional units, with exon sequences comprising 4%. The creation of a comprehensive gene index requires the synthesis of all available computational and experimental evidence. PMID:11516338

The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands.

PubMed

Campbell, J Elliott; Lobell, David B; Genova, Robert C; Field, Christopher B

2008-08-01

Converting forest lands into bioenergy agriculture could accelerate climate change by emitting carbon stored in forests, while converting food agriculture lands into bioenergy agriculture could threaten food security. Both problems are potentially avoided by using abandoned agriculture lands for bioenergy agriculture. Here we show the global potential for bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands to be less than 8% of current primary energy demand, based on historical land use data, satellite-derived land cover data, and global ecosystem modeling. The estimated global area of abandoned agriculture is 385-472 million hectares, or 66-110% of the areas reported in previous preliminary assessments. The area-weighted mean production of above-ground biomass is 4.3 tons ha(-1) y(-1), in contrast to estimates of up to 10 tons ha(-1) y(-1) in previous assessments. The energy content of potential biomass grown on 100% of abandoned agriculture lands is less than 10% of primary energy demand for most nations in North America, Europe, and Asia, but it represents many times the energy demand in some African nations where grasslands are relatively productive and current energy demand is low.

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls

PubMed Central

Bruhn, Christian A. W.; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J.; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D.; Warren, Joshua L.; Weinberger, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The “synthetic controls” (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches. PMID:28154145

[The burden of fungal infections in Algeria].

PubMed

Chekiri-Talbi, M; Denning, D W

2017-06-01

In Algeria, superficial mycoses are very commonly diagnosed. Deep fungal infections are less often observed. Few data from Algeria are found in the literature. We report for the first time the main causes of these diseases in our country and provide burden estimates. We searched for existing data and estimated the incidence and prevalence of fungal diseases based on the population at risk and available epidemiological data. Demographic data were derived from the Service (Office) of the Statistics (ONES), World Health Organization (WHO), The Joint Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and national published reports. When no data existed, risk populations were used to estimate frequencies of fungal infections, using previously described methodology. Algeria has 40.4 million inhabitants and probably at least 568,900 (1.41 %) of Algerians have a serious fungal infection each year. Recurrent vulvovaginal candidiasis (485,000) and fungal asthma (72,000) are probably the commonest problems as there are over 1 million adult asthmatics. Candidaemia is estimated in 2020, invasive aspergillosis in 2865, intra-abdominal candidiasis in 303 people and are the most common life-threatening problems. AIDS is uncommon, but cancer is not (45,000 new cases of cancer among including 1500 in children) and nor is COPD (an estimated 317,762 patients of whom 20.3 % are admitted to hospital each year). A focus on improving the diagnosis and epidemiological data related to fungal infection is necessary in Algeria. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls.

PubMed

Bruhn, Christian A W; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D; Warren, Joshua L; Simonsen, Lone; Weinberger, Daniel M

2017-02-14

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The "synthetic controls" (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches.

Comparison of Remote Sensing and Fixed-Site Monitoring Approaches for Examining Air Pollution and Health in a National Study Population

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prud'homme, Genevieve; Dobbin, Nina A.; Sun, Liu; Burnet, Richard T.; Martin, Randall V.; Davidson, Andrew; Cakmak, Sabit; Villeneuve, Paul J.; Lamsal, Lok N.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron;

Integration of measurements with atmospheric dispersion models: Source term estimation for dispersal of (239)Pu due to non-nuclear detonation of high explosive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, L. L.; Harvey, T. F.; Freis, R. P.; Pitovranov, S. E.; Chernokozhin, E. V.

1992-10-01

The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental release of radioactivity is highly dependent on our knowledge of the source term characteristics and, in the case when the radioactivity is condensed on particles, the particle size distribution, all of which are generally poorly known. This paper reports on the development of a numerical technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling. This results in a more accurate particle-size distribution and particle injection height estimation when compared with measurements of high explosive dispersal of (239)Pu. The estimation model is based on a non-linear least squares regression scheme coupled with the ARAC three-dimensional atmospheric dispersion models. The viability of the approach is evaluated by estimation of ADPIC model input parameters such as the ADPIC particle size mean aerodynamic diameter, the geometric standard deviation, and largest size. Additionally we estimate an optimal 'coupling coefficient' between the particles and an explosive cloud rise model. The experimental data are taken from the Clean Slate 1 field experiment conducted during 1963 at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. The regression technique optimizes the agreement between the measured and model predicted concentrations of (239)Pu by varying the model input parameters within their respective ranges of uncertainties. The technique generally estimated the measured concentrations within a factor of 1.5, with the worst estimate being within a factor of 5, very good in view of the complexity of the concentration measurements, the uncertainties associated with the meteorological data, and the limitations of the models. The best fit also suggest a smaller mean diameter and a smaller geometric standard deviation on the particle size as well as a slightly weaker particle to cloud coupling than previously reported.

Dietary Compositions and Their Seasonal Shifts in Japanese Resident Birds, Estimated from the Analysis of Volunteer Monitoring Data

PubMed Central

Yoshikawa, Tetsuro; Osada, Yutaka

2015-01-01

Determining the composition of a bird’s diet and its seasonal shifts are fundamental for understanding the ecology and ecological functions of a species. Various methods have been used to estimate the dietary compositions of birds, which have their own advantages and disadvantages. In this study, we examined the possibility of using long-term volunteer monitoring data as the source of dietary information for 15 resident bird species in Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan. The data were collected from field observations reported by volunteers of regional naturalist groups. Based on these monitoring data, we calculated the monthly dietary composition of each bird species directly, and we also estimated unidentified items within the reported foraging episodes using Bayesian models that contained additional information regarding foraging locations. Next, to examine the validity of the estimated dietary compositions, we compared them with the dietary information for focal birds based on stomach analysis methods, collected from past literatures. The dietary trends estimated from the monitoring data were largely consistent with the general food habits determined from the previous studies of focal birds. Thus, the estimates based on the volunteer monitoring data successfully detected noticeable seasonal shifts in many of the birds from plant materials to animal diets during spring—summer. Comparisons with stomach analysis data supported the qualitative validity of the monitoring-based dietary information and the effectiveness of the Bayesian models for improving the estimates. This comparison suggests that one advantage of using monitoring data is its ability to detect dietary items such as fleshy fruits, flower nectar, and vertebrates. These results emphasize the potential importance of observation data collecting and mining by citizens, especially free descriptive observation data, for use in bird ecology studies. PMID:25723544

Vision and Voyages: Lessons Learned from the Planetary Decadal Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squyres, S. W.

2015-12-01

The most recent planetary decadal survey, entitled Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022, provided a detailed set of priorities for solar system exploration. Those priorities drew on broad input from the U.S. and international planetary science community. Using white papers, town hall meetings, and open meetings of the decadal committees, community views were solicited and a consensus began to emerge. The final report summarized that consensus. Like many past decadal reports, the centerpiece of Vision and Voyages was a set of priorities for future space flight projects. Two things distinguished this report from some previous decadals. First, conservative and independent cost estimates were obtained for all of the projects that were considered. These independent cost estimates, rather than estimates generated by project advocates, were used to judge each project's expected science return per dollar. Second, rather than simply accepting NASA's ten-year projection of expected funding for planetary exploration, decision rules were provided to guide program adjustments if actual funding did not follow projections. To date, NASA has closely followed decadal recommendations. In particular, the two highest priority "flagship" missions, a Mars rover to collect samples for return to Earth and a mission to investigate a possible ocean on Europa, are both underway. The talk will describe the planetary decadal process in detail, and provide a more comprehensive assessment of NASA's response to it.

An approach for filtering hyperbolically positioned underwater acoustic telemetry data with position precision estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meckley, Trevor D.; Holbrook, Christopher M.; Wagner, C. Michael; Binder, Thomas R.

2014-01-01

The use of position precision estimates that reflect the confidence in the positioning process should be considered prior to the use of biological filters that rely on a priori expectations of the subject’s movement capacities and tendencies. Position confidence goals should be determined based upon the needs of the research questions and analysis requirements versus arbitrary selection, in which filters of previous studies are adopted. Data filtering with this approach ensures that data quality is sufficient for the selected analyses and presents the opportunity to adjust or identify a different analysis in the event that the requisite precision was not attained. Ignoring these steps puts a practitioner at risk of reporting errant findings.

Estimating proportions of objects from multispectral scanner data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horwitz, H. M.; Lewis, J. T.; Pentland, A. P.

1975-01-01

Progress is reported in developing and testing methods of estimating, from multispectral scanner data, proportions of target classes in a scene when there are a significiant number of boundary pixels. Procedures were developed to exploit: (1) prior information concerning the number of object classes normally occurring in a pixel, and (2) spectral information extracted from signals of adjoining pixels. Two algorithms, LIMMIX and nine-point mixtures, are described along with supporting processing techniques. An important by-product of the procedures, in contrast to the previous method, is that they are often appropriate when the number of spectral bands is small. Preliminary tests on LANDSAT data sets, where target classes were (1) lakes and ponds, and (2) agricultural crops were encouraging.

Investigation of low-cost ablative heat shield fabrication for space shuttles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, H. H.

1972-01-01

Improvements in the processes and design to reduce the manufacturing costs for low density ablative panels for the space shuttle are discussed. The areas that were studied included methods of loading honeycomb core, alternative reinforcement concepts, and the use of reusable subpanels. A review of previous studies on the fabrication of low-cost ablative panels and on permissible defects that do not affect thermal performance was conducted. Considerable differences in the quoted prices for ablative panels, even though the various contractors had reported similar fabrication times were discovered. How these cost differences arise from different estimating criteria and which estimating assumptions and other costs must be included in order to arrive at a realistic price are discussed.

Research and Development of Automated Eddy Current Testing for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carver, Kyle L.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Nichols, Charles T.; Spencer, Paul R.; Lucero, Ralph E.

2012-01-01

Eddy current testing (ET) was used to scan bare metallic liners used in the fabrication of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) for flaws which could result in premature failure of the vessel. The main goal of the project was to make improvements in the areas of scan signal to noise ratio, sensitivity of flaw detection, and estimation of flaw dimensions. Scan settings were optimized resulting in an increased signal to noise ratio. Previously undiscovered flaw indications were observed and investigated. Threshold criteria were determined for the system software's flaw report and estimation of flaw dimensions were brought to an acceptable level of accuracy. Computer algorithms were written to import data for filtering and a numerical derivative filtering algorithm was evaluated.

Accelerator skyshine: Tyger, tyger, burning bright

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stapleton, G.B.; O`Brien, K.; Thomas, R.H.

1992-06-01

Neutron skyshine is, in most cases, the dominant source of radiation exposure to the general public from operation of well-shielded, high-energy accelerators. To estimate this exposure, tabulated solutions of the transport of neutrons through the air are frequently used. In previous works on skyshine, these tabular data have been parameterized into simple empirical equations that are easy and fast to use but are limited to distances greater than a few hundred meters from the accelerator. Our current report has refined this earlier work by including more realistic assumptions of neutron differential energy spectrum and angular distribution. These improved calculations essentiallymore » endorse the earlier parameterizations but make possible reasonably accurate dose estimates much closer to the skyshine source than before.« less

History of gonorrhea and prostate cancer in a population-based case-control study in Mexico.

PubMed

Vázquez-Salas, Ruth Argelia; Torres-Sánchez, Luisa; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth; Romero-Martínez, Martín; Manzanilla-García, Hugo A; Cruz-Ortíz, Carlos Humberto; Mendoza-Peña, Fernando; Jiménez-Ríos, Miguel Ángel; Rodríguez-Covarrubias, Francisco; Hernández-Toríz, Narciso; Moreno-Alcázar, Othón

2016-02-01

We evaluated the association between a history of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and the risk for prostate cancer (PC) among Mexican males. PC incident cases (n=402) that were identified at six public hospitals in Mexico City were matched by age (±5 years) with 805 population controls with no history of PC. By face-to-face interview, we obtained information about sexual history, previous STDs, sociodemographic characteristics, and familial history of PC. An unconditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the risk for PC. A total of 16.6% of men reported having had at least one previous STD, and the most frequently reported STD was gonorrhea (10.5%). After adjusting by PC familial history, the history of STD was associated with a two-fold greater risk of PC: odds ratio (OR)=2.67; 95% confidence interval (95% CI=1.91-3.73). When each STD was evaluated separately, only gonorrhea was associated with a significant increase in PC risk (OR=3.04; 95% CI=1.99-4.64). These associations were similar when we stratified by low-risk PC (Gleason <7) and high-risk PC (Gleason ≥7). These results confirm that STDs, and particularly gonorrhea, may play an etiological role in PC among Mexican males, which is consistent with a previous report from a multiethnic cohort. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive and human capital crash costs by maximum police-reported injury severity within selected crash types.

PubMed

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Miller, Ted; Council, Forrest; Persaud, Bhagwant

2004-01-01

This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three police-coded severity groupings within 16 selected crash types and within two speed limit categories (or=50 mph). The economic costs are hard dollar costs. The comprehensive costs include economic costs and quality of life losses. We merged previously developed costs per victim keyed on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) into US crash data files that scored injuries in both the AIS and police-coded severity scales to produce per crash estimates. The most costly crashes were non-intersection fatal/disabling injury crashes on a road with a speed limit of 50 miles per hour or higher where multiple vehicles crashed head-on or a single vehicle struck a human (over 1.69 and $1.16 million per crash, respectively). The annual cost of police-reported run-off-road collisions, which include both rollovers and object impacts, represented 34% of total costs.

Comprehensive and Human Capital Crash Costs by Maximum Police-Reported Injury Severity Within Selected Crash Types

PubMed Central

Zaloshnja, Eduard; Miller, Ted; Council, Forrest; Persaud, Bhagwant

2004-01-01

This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three police-coded severity groupings within 16 selected crash types and within two speed limit categories (<=45 and >=50 mph). The economic costs are hard dollar costs. The comprehensive costs include economic costs and quality of life losses. We merged previously developed costs per victim keyed on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) into US crash data files that scored injuries in both the AIS and police-coded severity scales to produce per crash estimates. The most costly crashes were non-intersection fatal/disabling injury crashes on a road with a speed limit of 50 miles per hour or higher where multiple vehicles crashed head-on or a single vehicle struck a human (over 1.69 and $1.16 million per crash, respectively). The annual cost of police-reported run-off-road collisions, which include both rollovers and object impacts, represented 34% of total costs. PMID:15319129

Densities of Serotonergic Projections as Revealed by In Situ Synthesised Labelled α-Methyl-Serotonin: an Autoradiographic Evaluation

PubMed Central

Nishi, Kyoko; Takahashi, Sho

2013-01-01

An estimate of serotonergic innervation density and regional serotonin (5-HT) concentration was performed from the distribution of in situ produced labelled α-methyl-serotonin. Rats were injected with (3H) labelled α-methyl-L-tryptophan and the tracer distribution was measured using the autoradiographic method 14 days following the injection. In a separate experiment, the total brain concentration of 5-HT in the rat brain was found to be 2.4 ± 0.2 nmol/g. Based on this, and the assumption that the specific activity of in situ produced α-methyl-serotonin is the same as that of the injected tracer, it was possible to estimate the regional concentrations of 5-HT and the relative concentration of regional serotonergic innervations. It was found, and reported for the first time here, that the highest concentration of serotonergic innervation is present in the solitary nucleus. Regionally measured 5-HT concentrations accord well with previously reported concentrations of 5-HT. PMID:21472458

Genetic variability in ABCB1, occupational pesticide exposure, and Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Narayan, Shilpa; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Paul, Kimberly C; Liew, Zeyan; Cockburn, Myles; Bronstein, Jeff M; Ritz, Beate

2015-11-01

Studies suggested that variants in the ABCB1 gene encoding P-glycoprotein, a xenobiotic transporter, may increase susceptibility to pesticide exposures linked to Parkinson's Disease (PD) risk. To investigate the joint impact of two ABCB1 polymorphisms and pesticide exposures on PD risk. In a population-based case control study, we genotyped ABCB1 gene variants at rs1045642 (c.3435C/T) and rs2032582 (c.2677G/T/A) and assessed occupational exposures to organochlorine (OC) and organophosphorus (OP) pesticides based on self-reported occupational use and record-based ambient workplace exposures for 282 PD cases and 514 controls of European ancestry. We identified active ingredients in self-reported occupational use pesticides from a California database and estimated ambient workplace exposures between 1974 and 1999 employing a geographic information system together with records for state pesticide and land use. With unconditional logistic regression, we estimated marginal and joint contributions for occupational pesticide exposures and ABCB1 variants in PD. For occupationally exposed carriers of homozygous ABCB1 variant genotypes, we estimated odds ratios of 1.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): (0.87, 4.07)] to 3.71 [95% CI: (1.96, 7.02)], with the highest odds ratios estimated for occupationally exposed carriers of homozygous ABCB1 variant genotypes at both SNPs; but we found no multiplicative scale interactions. This study lends support to a previous report that commonly used pesticides, specifically OCs and OPs, and variant ABCB1 genotypes at two polymorphic sites jointly increase risk of PD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational Burden of Cancer in Korea

PubMed Central

Lee, Hye-Eun; Kang, Seong-Kyu

2010-01-01

Objectives The extent of the occupational cancer burden has rarely been estimated in Korea. The aim of this study is to provide an estimation of the population attributable fraction (PAF) of occupational cancer in Korea. Methods Nine kinds of Group 1 carcinogens addressed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and 7 kinds of cancer were selected for the target carcinogens and diseases, respectively. The prevalence of carcinogen-exposed workers was estimated and correction factors were applied so that the value would be representative of the total population. Data on relative risk (RR) were taken from IARC reports and were compared with the RRs from the studies on Korean workers. The PAF was estimated according to Levin's formula. Results The proportion of the general Korean population exposed to carcinogens was 9.7%. The PAF of total cancer was 1.1% for incident cancer cases and 1.7% for cancer deaths. The PAFs of lung cancer and leukemia were 7.0% and 4.%, respectively. With the RRs reported from Korean studies, the PAF for lung cancer and leukemia were 3.7% and 3.4%, respectively. Conclusion The PAF in this study (1.1%) was lower than that reported in previous studies (2-4%) from developed countries. Considering that only 9 of the 29 kinds of Group 1 carcinogens were included in this study, the PAF might be underestimated. However, because the process of industrialization in Korea differs from that which occurred in other developed countries, 1.1% of the PAF might be appropriate for Korea. PMID:22953164

A third case of amelia in Morelet's crocodile from the Yucatan Peninsula.

PubMed

Charruau, Pierre; Niño-Torres, Carlos A

2014-07-03

Congenital defects in crocodilians have received little interest. In the context of global change and increasing threats to biodiversity, data on birth defects occurring in wildlife could be of importance for estimating the health of species populations and their ecosystems. Herein, we report the first case of amelia (i.e. absence of limbs) in Morelet's crocodiles Crocodylus moreletii from Mexico and the third on the southern Yucatan Peninsula. The crocodile in question was a juvenile (41 cm total length) captured in July 2012 in the Río Hondo, the river that forms the border between Mexico and Belize south of the state of Quintana Roo. The prevalence of this malformation in the C. moreletii population of Río Hondo (0.35%) is similar to that reported in 2 previous cases in Belize. Several causes of birth defects in crocodilians have previously been cited in the literature. Although we do not have relevant information to elucidate this case, we discuss some plausible explanations for this birth defect.

Polygamy and an absence of fine-scale structure in Dendroctonus ponderosae (Hopk.) (Coleoptera: Curcilionidae) confirmed using molecular markers

PubMed Central

Janes, J K; Roe, A D; Rice, A V; Gorrell, J C; Coltman, D W; Langor, D W; Sperling, F A H

2016-01-01

An understanding of mating systems and fine-scale spatial genetic structure is required to effectively manage forest pest species such as Dendroctonus ponderosae (mountain pine beetle). Here we used genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms to assess the fine-scale genetic structure and mating system of D. ponderosae collected from a single stand in Alberta, Canada. Fine-scale spatial genetic structure was absent within the stand and the majority of genetic variation was best explained at the individual level. Relatedness estimates support previous reports of pre-emergence mating. Parentage assignment tests indicate that a polygamous mating system better explains the relationships among individuals within a gallery than the previously reported female monogamous/male polygynous system. Furthermore, there is some evidence to suggest that females may exploit the galleries of other females, at least under epidemic conditions. Our results suggest that current management models are likely to be effective across large geographic areas based on the absence of fine-scale genetic structure. PMID:26286666

Fusion and elastic scattering of 6Li + 58Ni at low energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aguilera, Elí F.; Amador-Valenzuela, Paulina; Martinez-Quiroz, Enrique; Lizcano, David; Garcia-Flores, Araceli; Kolata, James J.

2017-11-01

Sub-barrier fusion cross sections (σfus) for the 6Li + 58Ni system, obtained from the respective evaporation protons, are examined in the present work. With respect to expectations of a simple one-dimensional barrier penetration model, a large enhancement of the data is observed. Good consistency with equivalent data reported previously for similar systems is found. A comparison with total reaction cross sections (σR), deduced from elastic scattering measurements reported previously, indicates that σfus is close to σR within the measured energy range. To estimate the contribution of complete fusion (CF), an optical model analysis of the elastic scattering data is performed where CF is identified with the absorption in a short range volume potential. A surface polarization potential is added to the bare nuclear potential to simulate the effect of peripheral reactions. The results obtained indicate that other mechanisms different from CF may be dominant, especially in the lower energy region.

A Revised Estimate of 20th Century Global Mean Sea Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, C.; Morrow, E.; Kopp, R. E., III; Mitrovica, J. X.

2014-12-01

One of the primary goals of paleo-sea level research is to assess the stability of ice sheets and glaciers in warming climates. In this context, the 20th century may be thought of as the most recent, recorded, and studied of all past episodes of warming. Over the past decade, a consensus has emerged in the literature that 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL), inferred from tide gauge records, rose at a mean rate of 1.6-1.9 mm/yr. This sea-level rise can be attributed to multiple sources, including thermal expansion of the oceans, ice sheet and glacier mass flux, and anthropogenic changes in land water storage. The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC summarized the estimated contributions of these sources over 1901-1990 and computed a total rate, using a bottom-up approach, of ~1.0 mm/yr, which falls significantly short of the rate inferred from tide gauge records. Using two independent probabilistic approaches that utilize models of glacial isostatic adjustment, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level fingerprints of rapid land-ice melt to analyze tide gauge records (Kalman smoothing and Gaussian process regression), we are able to close the 20th century sea-level budget and resolve the above enigma. Our revised estimate for the rate of GMSL rise during 1901-1990 is 1.1-1.3 mm/yr (90% credible interval). This value, which is ~20-30% less than previous estimates, suggests that the change in the GMSL rate from the 20th century to the last two decades (2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr, consistent with past estimates) was greater than previous estimates. Moreover, since some forward projections of GMSL change into the next century are based in part on past estimates of GMSL change, our revised rate may impact projections of GMSL rise for the 21st century and beyond.

Patients use an internet technology to report when things go wrong.

PubMed

Wasson, John H; MacKenzie, Todd A; Hall, Michael

2007-06-01

As patients directly experience harm from adverse events, investigators have proposed patient-report to complement professional reporting of adverse events. To investigate how an automated health assessment system can be used to identify adverse events. Internet survey responses from April 2003 to April 2005 involving communities and clinical practices across the USA. 44,860 adults aged 19-69 years. Patient perceptions of adverse events experienced during the previous year. Independent legal review was also used to estimate how many patient-reports were serious enough to be potentially compensable. Although patient reports of possible adverse events was low (1.4%), the percentage of adverse events was eight times higher for patients with the greatest burden of illness than for those with the least (3.4% vs 0.4%). Two expert malpractice attorneys agreed that 9% of the adverse events seemed to be serious. PATIENTS will use internet technology to report their perceptions of health-related adverse events. Some of the patient-reported events reported will be serious.

The association of temporomandibular disorder pain with history of head and neck injury in adolescents.

PubMed

Fischer, Dena J; Mueller, Beth A; Critchlow, Cathy W; LeResche, Linda

2006-01-01

To evaluate the risk of self-reported temporomandibular disorder (TMD) pain among adolescents in relation to previous head and/or neck injury. 3,101 enrollees (11 to 17 years of age) of a nonprofit integrated health-care system were interviewed by telephone. Two hundred four cases with self-reported TMD pain and 194 controls without self-reported TMD pain frequency-matched to the cases by age and gender completed standardized in-person interviews and physical examinations in which reports of previous head/neck injuries were recorded. Odds ratio (OR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the relative risks of TMD pain associated with prior head and/or neck injuries were calculated using logistic regression. A greater proportion of subjects reporting TMD pain (36%) than controls (25%) had a history of head and/or neck injuries (OR = 1.8, 95% CI, 1.1-2.8). In a separate analysis, the presence of TMD based upon the Research Diagnostic Criteria for Temporomandibular Disorders (RDC/TMD) was assessed in relation to prior head and/or neck injury. Cases reporting TMD pain and meeting the RDC/TMD criteria for myofascial pain and/or arthralgia or arthritis were 2.0 (CI, 1.0-3.8) times more likely to have had a prior head injury than were controls with neither self-reported nor RDC/TMD pain diagnoses. The results suggest a modest association of prior head injuries with both self-reported and clinically diagnosed TMD pain in adolescents.

New High Proper Motion Stars from the Digitized Sky Survey. II. Northern Stars with 0.5" yr-1 < μ < 2.0" yr-1 at High Galactic Latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lépine, Sébastien; Shara, Michael M.; Rich, R. Michael

2003-08-01

In a continuation of our systematic search for high proper motion stars in the Digitized Sky Survey, we have completed the analysis of northern sky fields at Galactic latitudes above 25°. With the help of our SUPERBLINK software, a powerful automated blink comparator developed by us, we have identified 1146 stars in the magnitude range 8

Genome-Wide Detection of CNVs and Their Association with Meat Tenderness in Nelore Cattle.

PubMed

Silva, Vinicius Henrique da; Regitano, Luciana Correia de Almeida; Geistlinger, Ludwig; Pértille, Fábio; Giachetto, Poliana Fernanda; Brassaloti, Ricardo Augusto; Morosini, Natália Silva; Zimmer, Ralf; Coutinho, Luiz Lehmann

2016-01-01

Brazil is one of the largest beef producers and exporters in the world with the Nelore breed representing the vast majority of Brazilian cattle (Bos taurus indicus). Despite the great adaptability of the Nelore breed to tropical climate, meat tenderness (MT) remains to be improved. Several factors including genetic composition can influence MT. In this article, we report a genome-wide analysis of copy number variation (CNV) inferred from Illumina® High Density SNP-chip data for a Nelore population of 723 males. We detected >2,600 CNV regions (CNVRs) representing ≈6.5% of the genome. Comparing our results with previous studies revealed an overlap in ≈1400 CNVRs (>50%). A total of 1,155 CNVRs (43.6%) overlapped 2,750 genes. They were enriched for processes involving guanosine triphosphate (GTP), previously reported to influence skeletal muscle physiology and morphology. Nelore CNVRs also overlapped QTLs for MT reported in other breeds (8.9%, 236 CNVRs) and from a previous study with this population (4.1%, 109 CNVRs). Two CNVRs were also proximal to glutathione metabolism genes that were previously associated with MT. Genome-wide association study of CN state with estimated breeding values derived from meat shear force identified 6 regions, including a region on BTA3 that contains genes of the cAMP and cGMP pathway. Ten CNVRs that overlapped regions associated with MT were successfully validated by qPCR. Our results represent the first comprehensive CNV study in Bos taurus indicus cattle and identify regions in which copy number changes are potentially of importance for the MT phenotype.

The association between previous and future severe exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Updating the literature using robust statistical methodology.

PubMed

Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Xie, Hui; Etminan, Mahyar; Johnson, Kate; FitzGerald, J Mark

2018-01-01

There is minimal evidence on the extent to which the occurrence of a severe acute exacerbation of COPD that results in hospitalization affects the subsequent disease course. Previous studies on this topic did not generate causally-interpretable estimates. Our aim was to use corrected methodology to update previously reported estimates of the associations between previous and future exacerbations in these patients. Using administrative health data in British Columbia, Canada (1997-2012), we constructed a cohort of patients with at least one severe exacerbation, defined as an episode of inpatient care with the main diagnosis of COPD based on international classification of diseases (ICD) codes. We applied a random-effects 'joint frailty' survival model that is particularly developed for the analysis of recurrent events in the presence of competing risk of death and heterogeneity among individuals in their rate of events. Previous severe exacerbations entered the model as dummy-coded time-dependent covariates, and the model was adjusted for several observable patient and disease characteristics. 35,994 individuals (mean age at baseline 73.7, 49.8% female, average follow-up 3.21 years) contributed 34,271 severe exacerbations during follow-up. The first event was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.75 (95%CI 1.69-1.82) for the risk of future severe exacerbations. This risk decreased to HR = 1.36 (95%CI 1.30-1.42) for the second event and to 1.18 (95%CI 1.12-1.25) for the third event. The first two severe exacerbations that occurred during follow-up were also significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality. There was substantial heterogeneity in the individual-specific rate of severe exacerbations. Even after adjusting for observable characteristics, individuals in the 97.5th percentile of exacerbation rate had 5.6 times higher rate of severe exacerbations than those in the 2.5th percentile. Using robust statistical methodology that controlled for heterogeneity in exacerbation rates among individuals, we demonstrated potential causal associations among past and future severe exacerbations, albeit the magnitude of association was noticeably lower than previously reported. The prevention of severe exacerbations has the potential to modify the disease trajectory.

SU-G-IeP3-12: Preliminary Report On the Experience of Patient Radiation Dose Monitoring and Tracking Systems; PEMNET, Radimetrics and DoseWatch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, P; Corwin, F; Ghita, M

Purpose: Three patient radiation dose monitoring and tracking (PRDMT) systems have been in operation at this institution for the past 6 months. There are useful information that should be disseminated to those who are considering installation of PRDMT programs. In addition, there are “problems” uncovered in the process of estimating fluoroscopic “peak” skin dose (PSD), especially, for those patients who received interventional angiographic studies and in conjunction with surgical procedures. Methods: Upon exporting the PRDMT data to Microsoft Excel program, the peak skin dose can be estimated by applying various correction factors including; attenuation due to the tabletop and examinationmore » mattress, table height, tabletop translation, backscatter, etc. A procedure was established to screen and divide the PRDMT reported radiation dose and estimated PSD to three different levels of threshold to assess the potential skin injuries, to assist patient follow-up, risk management and provide radiation dosimetry information in case of “Sentinel Event”. Results: The Radiation Dose Structured Report (RDSR) was found to be the prerequisite for the PRDMT systems to work seamlessly. And, the geometrical parameters (gantry and table orientation) displayed by the equipment are not necessarily implemented in the “patient centric” manner which could result in a large error in the PSD estimation. Since, the PRDMT systems obtain their pertinent data from the DICOM tags including the polarity (+ and − signs), the geometrical parameters need to be verified. Conclusion: PRDMT systems provide a more accurate PSD estimation than previously possible as the air-kerma-area dose meter become widely implemented. However, care should be exercised to correctly apply the geometrical parameters in estimating the patient dose. In addition, further refinement is necessary for these software programs to account for all geometrical parameters such as the tabletop translation in the z-direction in particular.« less

Serious fungal infections in Pakistan.

PubMed

Jabeen, K; Farooqi, J; Mirza, S; Denning, D; Zafar, A

2017-06-01

The true burden of fungal infection in Pakistan is unknown. High-risk populations for fungal infections [tuberculosis (TB), diabetes, chronic respiratory diseases, asthma, cancer, transplant and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection] are numerous. Here, we estimate the burden of fungal infections to highlight their public health significance. Whole and at-risk population estimates were obtained from the WHO (TB), BREATHE study (COPD), UNAIDS (HIV), GLOBOCAN (cancer) and Heartfile (diabetes). Published data from Pakistan reporting fungal infections rates in general and specific populations were reviewed and used when applicable. Estimates were made for the whole population or specific populations at risk, as previously described in the LIFE methodology. Of the 184,500,000 people in Pakistan, an estimated 3,280,549 (1.78%) are affected by a serious fungal infection, omitting all cutaneous infection, oral candidiasis and allergic fungal sinusitis, which we could not estimate. Compared with other countries, the rates of candidaemia (21/100,000) and mucormycosis (14/100,000) are estimated to be very high, and are based on data from India. Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis rates are estimated to be high (39/100,000) because of the high TB burden. Invasive aspergillosis was estimated to be around 5.9/100,000. Fungal keratitis is also problematic in Pakistan, with an estimated rate of 44/100,000. Pakistan probably has a high rate of certain life- or sight-threatening fungal infections.

Assessing the Effectiveness of the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) for Early Event Detection of the H1N1 (Swine Flu) Virus

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

Given that the sample standard deviation is based on the previous 7–9 days worth of data , it is no wonder that a 3 sigma threshold fails to signal...this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data ...sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden

Determination of the Io heat flow. 1: Eclipse observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinton, W. M.; Kaminski, C.

1983-01-01

The thermal emission from Io during eclipse by Jupiter yields data from which the total thermal flux from the volcanoes on the satellite surface can be estimated. Thermal infrared observations in spectral bands between 3.5 and 30 microns of five Io eclipse reappearances and one eclipse disappearance are reported and discussed. The thermal emission of the volcanoes which occurs almost all of the time was determined from the Io heat flux data. The thermal observations of Io are discussed with respect to previous thermophysical theories.

Status of wing flutter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kussner, H G

1936-01-01

This report presents a survey of previous theoretical and experimental investigations on wing flutter covering thirteen cases of flutter observed on airplanes. The direct cause of flutter is, in the majority of cases, attributable to (mass-) unbalanced ailerons. Under the conservative assumption that the flutter with the phase angle most favorable for excitation occurs only in two degrees of freedom, the lowest critical speed can be estimated from the data obtained on the oscillation bench. Corrective measures for increasing the critical speed and for definite avoidance of wing flutter, are discussed.

The Effects of Channel Curvature and Protrusion Height on Nucleate Boiling and the Critical Heat Flux of a Simulated Electronic Chip

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-05-01

parameters and geometry factor. 57 3.2 Laminar sublayer and buffer layer thicknesses for geometry of Mudawar and Maddox.ŝ 68 3.3 Correlation constants...transfer from simulated electronic chip heat sources that are flush with the flow channel wall. Mudawar and Maddox2" have studied enhanced surfaces...bias error was not estimated; however, the percentage of heat loss measured compares with that previously reported by Mudawar and Maddox19 for a

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 10: Industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lietzke, K. R.

1974-01-01

The economic benefits of an ERS system in the area of industrial resources are discussed. Contributions of ERTS imagery to the improvement of shipping routes, detection of previously unknown and potentially active faults in construction areas, and monitoring industrial pollution are described. Due to lack of economic research concerning the subject of ERS applications in this resource area the benefit estimations reported are regarded as tentative and preliminary.

Learning receptor positions from imperfectly known motions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.; Mulligan, Jeffrey B.

1990-01-01

An algorithm is described for learning image interpolation functions for sensor arrays whose sensor positions are somewhat disordered. The learning is based on failures of translation invariance, so it does not require knowledge of the images being presented to the visual system. Previously reported implementations of the method assumed the visual system to have precise knowledge of the translations. It is demonstrated that translation estimates computed from the imperfectly interpolated images can have enough accuracy to allow the learning process to converge to a correct interpolation.

Thermally Activated Motion of Sodium Cations in Insulating Parent Low-Silica X Zeolite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Igarashi, Mutsuo; Jeglič, Peter; Mežnaršič, Tadej; Nakano, Takehito; Nozue, Yasuo; Watanabe, Naohiro; Arčon, Denis

2017-07-01

We report a 23Na spin-lattice relaxation rate, T1 - 1, in low-silica X zeolite. T1 - 1 follows multiple BPP-type behavior as a result of thermal motion of sodium cations in insulating material. The estimated lowest activation energy of 15 meV is much lower than 100 meV observed previously for sodium motion in heavily Na-loaded samples and is most likely attributed to short-distance jumps of sodium cations between sites within the same supercage.

A comment on "Novel scavenger removal trials increase wind turbine-caused avian fatality estimates"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.P.; Erickson, Wallace P.

2013-01-01

In a recent paper, Smallwood et al. (2010) conducted a study to compare their “novel” approach to conducting carcass removal trials with what they term the “conventional” approach and to evaluate the effects of the different methods on estimated avian fatality at a wind power facility in California. A quick glance at Table 3 that succinctly summarizes their results and provides estimated fatality rates and 80% confidence intervals calculated using the 2 methods reveals a surprising result. The confidence intervals of all of their estimates and most of the conventional estimates extend below 0. These results imply that wind turbines may have the capacity to create live birds. But a more likely interpretation is that a serious error occurred in the calculation of either the average fatality rate or its standard error or both. Further evaluation of their methods reveals that the scientific basis for concluding that “many estimates of scavenger removal rates prior to [their] study were likely biased low due to scavenger swamping” and “previously reported estimates of avian fatality rates … should be adjusted upwards” was not evident in their analysis and results. Their comparison to conventional approaches was not applicable, their statistical models were questionable, and the conclusions they drew were unsupported.

Dependence of muscle moment arms on in-vivo three-dimensional kinematics of the knee

PubMed Central

Navacchia, Alessandro; Kefala, Vasiliki; Shelburne, Kevin B.

2016-01-01

Quantification of muscle moment arms is important for clinical evaluation of muscle pathology and treatment, and for estimating muscle and joint forces in musculoskeletal models. Moment arms estimated with musculoskeletal models often assume a default motion of the knee derived from measurements of passive cadaveric flexion. However, knee kinematics are unique to each person and activity. The objective of this study was to estimate moment arms of the knee muscles with in vivo subject- and activity-specific kinematics from seven healthy subjects performing seated knee extension and single-leg lunge to show changes between subjects and activities. 3D knee motion was measured with a high-speed stereo-radiography system. Moment arms of ten muscles were estimated in OpenSim by replacing the default knee motion with in vivo measurements. Estimated inter-subject moment arm variability was similar to previously reported in vitro measurements. RMS deviations up to 9.0 mm (35.2% of peak value) were observed between moment arms estimated with subject-specific knee extension and passive cadaveric motion. The degrees of freedom that most impacted inter-activity differences were superior/inferior and anterior/posterior translations. Musculoskeletal simulations used to estimate in vivo muscle forces and joint loads may provide significantly different results when subject- and activity-specific kinematics are implemented. PMID:27620064

Dependence of Muscle Moment Arms on In Vivo Three-Dimensional Kinematics of the Knee.

PubMed

Navacchia, Alessandro; Kefala, Vasiliki; Shelburne, Kevin B

2017-03-01

Quantification of muscle moment arms is important for clinical evaluation of muscle pathology and treatment, and for estimating muscle and joint forces in musculoskeletal models. Moment arms estimated with musculoskeletal models often assume a default motion of the knee derived from measurements of passive cadaveric flexion. However, knee kinematics are unique to each person and activity. The objective of this study was to estimate moment arms of the knee muscles with in vivo subject- and activity-specific kinematics from seven healthy subjects performing seated knee extension and single-leg lunge to show changes between subjects and activities. 3D knee motion was measured with a high-speed stereo-radiography system. Moment arms of ten muscles were estimated in OpenSim by replacing the default knee motion with in vivo measurements. Estimated inter-subject moment arm variability was similar to previously reported in vitro measurements. RMS deviations up to 9.0 mm (35.2% of peak value) were observed between moment arms estimated with subject-specific knee extension and passive cadaveric motion. The degrees of freedom that most impacted inter-activity differences were superior/inferior and anterior/posterior translations. Musculoskeletal simulations used to estimate in vivo muscle forces and joint loads may provide significantly different results when subject- and activity-specific kinematics are implemented.

The Population of Near-Earth Asteroids Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, Alan William

2017-10-01

I have been tracking progress of the surveys discovering Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) for more than 20 years, and have reported updates every few years at past meetings. Following my last report at a DPS and the published update two years ago (Harris and D’Abramo 2015, Icarus 257, 302-312), it came to light that these and previous estimates were affected by round-off of H magnitudes by the Minor Planet Center to 0.1 mag. While it is true that individual magnitudes are generally not even that accurate, statistically the round-off shifted the population estimate by ~6%. While this hardly matters in the small size range, for the largest asteroids the shift alters N(H<17.75), assumed equivalent to N(D>1km), from 990 ± 20 (Harris & D’Abramo 2015) to 934 ± 20. Since the number already discovered, 872, is the same for both solutions, the implied completion of the surveys shifts from 88% to 93%. Not only is this correction satisfying with regard to the “Spaceguard Goal” of discovering 90% of NEAs of D > 1 km, but it reduces the estimated number of large NEAs remaining to be discovered by nearly a factor of 2. In this presentation I will explain the correction to the round-off bias and present an updated population estimate and survey progress using discoveries up to July, 2017.

Space Radiation Heart Disease Risk Estimates for Lunar and Mars Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, Francis A.; Chappell, Lori; Kim, Myung-Hee

2010-01-01

The NASA Space Radiation Program performs research on the risks of late effects from space radiation for cancer, neurological disorders, cataracts, and heart disease. For mortality risks, an aggregate over all risks should be considered as well as projection of the life loss per radiation induced death. We report on a triple detriment life-table approach to combine cancer and heart disease risks. Epidemiology results show extensive heterogeneity between populations for distinct components of the overall heart disease risks including hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and cerebrovascular diseases. We report on an update to our previous heart disease estimates for Heart disease (ICD9 390-429) and Stroke (ICD9 430-438), and other sub-groups using recent meta-analysis results for various exposed radiation cohorts to low LET radiation. Results for multiplicative and additive risk transfer models are considered using baseline rates for US males and female. Uncertainty analysis indicated heart mortality risks as low as zero, assuming a threshold dose for deterministic effects, and projections approaching one-third of the overall cancer risk. Medan life-loss per death estimates were significantly less than that of solid cancer and leukemias. Critical research questions to improve risks estimates for heart disease are distinctions in mechanisms at high doses (>2 Gy) and low to moderate doses (<2 Gy), and data and basic understanding of radiation doserate and quality effects, and individual sensitivity.

Mental Disorder Symptoms among Public Safety Personnel in Canada.

PubMed

Carleton, R Nicholas; Afifi, Tracie O; Turner, Sarah; Taillieu, Tamara; Duranceau, Sophie; LeBouthillier, Daniel M; Sareen, Jitender; Ricciardelli, Rose; MacPhee, Renee S; Groll, Dianne; Hozempa, Kadie; Brunet, Alain; Weekes, John R; Griffiths, Curt T; Abrams, Kelly J; Jones, Nicholas A; Beshai, Shadi; Cramm, Heidi A; Dobson, Keith S; Hatcher, Simon; Keane, Terence M; Stewart, Sherry H; Asmundson, Gordon J G

2018-01-01

Canadian public safety personnel (PSP; e.g., correctional workers, dispatchers, firefighters, paramedics, police officers) are exposed to potentially traumatic events as a function of their work. Such exposures contribute to the risk of developing clinically significant symptoms related to mental disorders. The current study was designed to provide estimates of mental disorder symptom frequencies and severities for Canadian PSP. An online survey was made available in English or French from September 2016 to January 2017. The survey assessed current symptoms, and participation was solicited from national PSP agencies and advocacy groups. Estimates were derived using well-validated screening measures. There were 5813 participants (32.5% women) who were grouped into 6 categories (i.e., call center operators/dispatchers, correctional workers, firefighters, municipal/provincial police, paramedics, Royal Canadian Mounted Police). Substantial proportions of participants reported current symptoms consistent with 1 (i.e., 15.1%) or more (i.e., 26.7%) mental disorders based on the screening measures. There were significant differences across PSP categories with respect to proportions screening positive based on each measure. The estimated proportion of PSP reporting current symptom clusters consistent with 1 or more mental disorders appears higher than previously published estimates for the general population; however, direct comparisons are impossible because of methodological differences. The available data suggest that Canadian PSP experience substantial and heterogeneous difficulties with mental health and underscore the need for a rigorous epidemiologic study and category-specific solutions.

NIOSH national survey of long-haul truck drivers: Injury and safety.

PubMed

Chen, Guang X; Sieber, W Karl; Lincoln, Jennifer E; Birdsey, Jan; Hitchcock, Edward M; Nakata, Akinori; Robinson, Cynthia F; Collins, James W; Sweeney, Marie H

2015-12-01

Approximately 1,701,500 people were employed as heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in the United States in 2012. The majority of them were long-haul truck drivers (LHTDs). There are limited data on occupational injury and safety in LHTDs, which prompted a targeted national survey. The National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health conducted a nationally representative survey of 1265 LHTDs at 32 truck stops across the contiguous United States in 2010. Data were collected on truck crashes, near misses, moving violations, work-related injuries, work environment, safety climate, driver training, job satisfaction, and driving behaviors. Results suggested that an estimated 2.6% of LHTDs reported a truck crash in 2010, 35% reported at least one crash while working as an LHTD, 24% reported at least one near miss in the previous 7 days, 17% reported at least one moving violation ticket and 4.7% reported a non-crash injury involving days away from work in the previous 12 months. The majority (68%) of non-crash injuries among company drivers were not reported to employers. An estimate of 73% of LHTDs (16% often and 58% sometimes) perceived their delivery schedules unrealistically tight; 24% often continued driving despite fatigue, bad weather, or heavy traffic because they needed to deliver or pick up a load at a given time; 4.5% often drove 10miles per hours or more over the speed limit; 6.0% never wore a seatbelt; 36% were often frustrated by other drivers on the road; 35% often had to wait for access to a loading dock; 37% reported being noncompliant with hours-of-service rules (10% often and 27% sometimes); 38% of LHTDs perceived their entry-level training inadequate; and 15% did not feel that safety of workers was a high priority with their management. This survey brings to light a number of important safety issues for further research and interventions, e.g., high prevalence of truck crashes, injury underreporting, unrealistically tight delivery schedules, noncompliance with hours-of-service rules, and inadequate entry-level training. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

NIOSH national survey of long-haul truck drivers: Injury and safety

PubMed Central

Chen, Guang X.; Sieber, W. Karl; Lincoln, Jennifer E.; Birdsey, Jan; Hitchcock, Edward M.; Nakata, Akinori; Robinson, Cynthia F.; Collins, James W.; Sweeney, Marie H.

2015-01-01

Approximately 1,701,500 people were employed as heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers in the United States in 2012. The majority of them were long-haul truck drivers (LHTDs). There are limited data on occupational injury and safety in LHTDs, which prompted a targeted national survey. The National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health conducted a nationally representative survey of 1265 LHTDs at 32 truck stops across the contiguous United States in 2010. Data were collected on truck crashes, near misses, moving violations, work-related injuries, work environment, safety climate, driver training, job satisfaction, and driving behaviors. Results suggested that an estimated 2.6% of LHTDs reported a truck crash in 2010, 35% reported at least one crash while working as an LHTD, 24% reported at least one near miss in the previous 7 days, 17% reported at least one moving violation ticket and 4.7% reported a non-crash injury involving days away from work in the previous 12 months. The majority (68%) of non-crash injuries among company drivers were not reported to employers. An estimate of 73% of LHTDs (16% often and 58% sometimes) perceived their delivery schedules unrealistically tight; 24% often continued driving despite fatigue, bad weather, or heavy traffic because they needed to deliver or pick up a load at a given time; 4.5% often drove 10 miles per hours or more over the speed limit; 6.0% never wore a seatbelt; 36% were often frustrated by other drivers on the road; 35% often had to wait for access to a loading dock; 37% reported being noncompliant with hours-of-service rules (10% often and 27% sometimes); 38% of LHTDs perceived their entry-level training inadequate; and 15% did not feel that safety of workers was a high priority with their management. This survey brings to light a number of important safety issues for further research and interventions, e.g., high prevalence of truck crashes, injury underreporting, unrealistically tight delivery schedules, noncompliance with hours-of-service rules, and inadequate entry-level training. PMID:26397196

Time-series analyses of air pollution and mortality in the United States: a subsampling approach.

PubMed

Moolgavkar, Suresh H; McClellan, Roger O; Dewanji, Anup; Turim, Jay; Luebeck, E Georg; Edwards, Melanie

2013-01-01

Hierarchical Bayesian methods have been used in previous papers to estimate national mean effects of air pollutants on daily deaths in time-series analyses. We obtained maximum likelihood estimates of the common national effects of the criteria pollutants on mortality based on time-series data from ≤ 108 metropolitan areas in the United States. We used a subsampling bootstrap procedure to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates and confidence bounds for common national effects of the criteria pollutants, as measured by the percentage increase in daily mortality associated with a unit increase in daily 24-hr mean pollutant concentration on the previous day, while controlling for weather and temporal trends. We considered five pollutants [PM10, ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2)] in single- and multipollutant analyses. Flexible ambient concentration-response models for the pollutant effects were considered as well. We performed limited sensitivity analyses with different degrees of freedom for time trends. In single-pollutant models, we observed significant associations of daily deaths with all pollutants. The O3 coefficient was highly sensitive to the degree of smoothing of time trends. Among the gases, SO2 and NO2 were most strongly associated with mortality. The flexible ambient concentration-response curve for O3 showed evidence of nonlinearity and a threshold at about 30 ppb. Differences between the results of our analyses and those reported from using the Bayesian approach suggest that estimates of the quantitative impact of pollutants depend on the choice of statistical approach, although results are not directly comparable because they are based on different data. In addition, the estimate of the O3-mortality coefficient depends on the amount of smoothing of time trends.

Estimation of flood-frequency characteristics of small urban streams in North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, J.C.; Pope, B.F.

1996-01-01

A statewide study was conducted to develop methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods of small urban streams in North Carolina. This type of information is critical in the design of bridges, culverts and water-control structures, establishment of flood-insurance rates and flood-plain regulation, and for other uses by urban planners and engineers. Concurrent records of rainfall and runoff data collected in small urban basins were used to calibrate rainfall-runoff models. Historic rain- fall records were used with the calibrated models to synthesize a long- term record of annual peak discharges. The synthesized record of annual peak discharges were used in a statistical analysis to determine flood- frequency distributions. These frequency distributions were used with distributions from previous investigations to develop a database for 32 small urban basins in the Blue Ridge-Piedmont, Sand Hills, and Coastal Plain hydrologic areas. The study basins ranged in size from 0.04 to 41.0 square miles. Data describing the size and shape of the basin, level of urban development, and climate and rural flood charac- teristics also were included in the database. Estimation equations were developed by relating flood-frequency char- acteristics to basin characteristics in a generalized least-squares regression analysis. The most significant basin characteristics are drainage area, impervious area, and rural flood discharge. The model error and prediction errors for the estimating equations were less than those for the national flood-frequency equations previously reported. Resulting equations, which have prediction errors generally less than 40 percent, can be used to estimate flood-peak discharges for 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals for small urban basins across the State assuming negligible, sustainable, in- channel detention or basin storage.

Estimating the implicit component of visuomotor rotation learning by constraining movement preparation time.

PubMed

Leow, Li-Ann; Gunn, Reece; Marinovic, Welber; Carroll, Timothy J

2017-08-01

When sensory feedback is perturbed, accurate movement is restored by a combination of implicit processes and deliberate reaiming to strategically compensate for errors. Here, we directly compare two methods used previously to dissociate implicit from explicit learning on a trial-by-trial basis: 1 ) asking participants to report the direction that they aim their movements, and contrasting this with the directions of the target and the movement that they actually produce, and 2 ) manipulating movement preparation time. By instructing participants to reaim without a sensory perturbation, we show that reaiming is possible even with the shortest possible preparation times, particularly when targets are narrowly distributed. Nonetheless, reaiming is effortful and comes at the cost of increased variability, so we tested whether constraining preparation time is sufficient to suppress strategic reaiming during adaptation to visuomotor rotation with a broad target distribution. The rate and extent of error reduction under preparation time constraints were similar to estimates of implicit learning obtained from self-report without time pressure, suggesting that participants chose not to apply a reaiming strategy to correct visual errors under time pressure. Surprisingly, participants who reported aiming directions showed less implicit learning according to an alternative measure, obtained during trials performed without visual feedback. This suggests that the process of reporting can affect the extent or persistence of implicit learning. The data extend existing evidence that restricting preparation time can suppress explicit reaiming and provide an estimate of implicit visuomotor rotation learning that does not require participants to report their aiming directions. NEW & NOTEWORTHY During sensorimotor adaptation, implicit error-driven learning can be isolated from explicit strategy-driven reaiming by subtracting self-reported aiming directions from movement directions, or by restricting movement preparation time. Here, we compared the two methods. Restricting preparation times did not eliminate reaiming but was sufficient to suppress reaiming during adaptation with widely distributed targets. The self-report method produced a discrepancy in implicit learning estimated by subtracting aiming directions and implicit learning measured in no-feedback trials. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

DISCOVERY OF AN INNER DISK COMPONENT AROUND HD 141569 A

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konishi, Mihoko; Shibai, Hiroshi; Grady, Carol A.

2016-02-20

We report the discovery of a scattering component around the HD 141569 A circumstellar debris system, interior to the previously known inner ring. The discovered inner disk component, obtained in broadband optical light with Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph coronagraphy, was imaged with an inner working angle of 0.″25, and can be traced from 0.″4 (∼46 AU) to 1.″0 (∼116 AU) after deprojection using i = 55°. The inner disk component is seen to forward scatter in a manner similar to the previously known rings, has a pericenter offset of ∼6 AU, and break points where the slope of the surface brightness changes.more » It also has a spiral arm trailing in the same sense as other spiral arms and arcs seen at larger stellocentric distances. The inner disk spatially overlaps with the previously reported warm gas disk seen in thermal emission. We detect no point sources within 2″ (∼232 AU), in particular in the gap between the inner disk component and the inner ring. Our upper limit of 9 ± 3 M{sub J} is augmented by a new dynamical limit on single planetary mass bodies in the gap between the inner disk component and the inner ring of 1 M{sub J}, which is broadly consistent with previous estimates.« less

Discovery of an Inner Disk Component Around HD 141569 A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Konishi, Mihoko; Grady, Carol A.; Schneider, Glenn; Shibai, Hiroshi; McElwain, Michael W.; Nesvold, Erika R.; Kuchner, Marc J.; Carson, Joseph; Debes, John H.; Gaspar, Andras;

Antihistamine Use in Early Pregnancy and Risk of Birth Defects

PubMed Central

Li, Qian; Mitchell, Allen A.; Werler, Martha M.; Yau, Wai-Ping; Hernández-Díaz, Sonia

2014-01-01

Background Several studies have reported an association between use of specific antihistamines in early pregnancy and certain specific birth defects. Objective To test 16 previously-hypothesized associations between specific antihistamines and specific birth defects, and identify possible new associations. Methods We used 1998-2010 data from the Slone Epidemiology Center Birth Defects Study, a multicenter case-control surveillance program of birth defects in North America. Mothers were interviewed within six months of delivery about demographic, reproductive, medical, and behavioral factors, and details on use of prescription and non-prescription medications. We compared 1st trimester exposure to specific antihistamines between 13,213 infants with specific malformations and 6,982 non-malformed controls, using conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with adjustment for potential confounders, including indication for use. Results Overall, 13.7% of controls were exposed to antihistamines during the 1st trimester. The most commonly-used medications were diphenhydramine (4.2%), loratadine (3.1%), doxylamine (1.9%), and chlorpheniramine (1.7%). Where estimates were stable, none supported the previously-hypothesized associations. Among over 100 exploratory comparisons of other specific antihistamine/defect pairs, 14 had ORs ≥1.5 of which 6 had 95% CI bounds excluding 1.0 before but not after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Conclusion Our findings do not provide meaningful support for previously-posited associations between antihistamines and major congenital anomalies; at the same time, we identified associations that had not been previously suggested. We suspect that previous associations may be chance findings in the context of multiple comparisons, a situation which may also apply to our new findings. PMID:24565715

Re-Irradiation of Locoregional NSCLC Recurrence Using Robotic Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy.

PubMed

Ceylan, Cemile; Hamacı, Andaç; Ayata, Hande; Berberoglu, Kezban; Kılıç, Ayhan; Güden, Metin; Engin, Kayıhan

2017-01-01

We evaluated the efficacy, toxicity, and dose responses of re-irradiation with stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in patients with recurrent non- small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after previous irradiation. 28 patients were included. Previous median radiation doses were 54 and 66 Gy. The median interval time between previous radiotherapy and SBRT was 14 months. The median follow-up time after SBRT was 9 months (range 3-93 months). To evaluate the effectiveness of SBRT, local control, overall survival, and treatment-related toxicity were reported. SBRT doses and fractionation ranged from 60 to 30 Gy and from 3 to 8, respectively, according to previous doses, location of the recurrence, and interval time. 65% of tumor recurrences overlapped with previous treatment, while 35% of tumors recurred outside of the previous treatment. 4 patients had local progression after SBRT at their first follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of the 1- and 2-year actuarial overall survival were 71 and 42%, respectively. The mean survival following SBRT was 32.8 months, and the median survival was 21 months. No grade 3 or higher toxicities were observed. Robotic SBRT is a tolerable treatment option with manageable toxicity which can be used with radical or palliative intent in carefully selected patients with locally recurrent tumors after previous irradiation. © 2017 S. Karger GmbH, Freiburg.

Estimated flow-duration curves for selected ungaged sites in Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Studley, S.E.

2001-01-01

Flow-duration curves for 1968-98 were estimated for 32 ungaged sites in the Missouri, Smoky Hill-Saline, Solomon, Marais des Cygnes, Walnut, Verdigris, and Neosho River Basins in Kansas. Also included from a previous report are estimated flow-duration curves for 16 ungaged sites in the Cimarron and lower Arkansas River Basins in Kansas. The method of estimation used six unique factors of flow duration: (1) mean streamflow and percentage duration of mean streamflow, (2) ratio of 1-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (3) ratio of 0.1-percent-duration streamflow to 1-percent-duration streamflow, (4) ratio of 50-percent-duration streamflow to mean streamflow, (5) percentage duration of appreciable streamflow (0.10 cubic foot per second), and (6) average slope of the flow-duration curve. These factors were previously developed from a regionalized study of flow-duration curves using streamflow data for 1921-76 from streamflow-gaging stations with drainage areas of 100 to 3,000 square miles. The method was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record streamflow-gaging station on Salt Creek near Lyndon, Kansas, with a drainage area of 111 square miles and was found to adequately estimate the computed flow-duration curve for the station. The method also was tested on a currently (2001) measured, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging station on Soldier Creek near Circleville, Kansas, with a drainage area of 49.3 square miles. The results of the test on Soldier Creek near Circleville indicated that the method could adequately estimate flow-duration curves for sites with drainage areas of less than 100 square miles. The low-flow parts of the estimated flow-duration curves were verified or revised using 137 base-flow discharge measurements made during 1999-2000 at the 32 ungaged sites that were correlated with base-flow measurements and flow-duration analyses performed at nearby, long-term, continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations (index stations). The method did not adequately estimate the flow-duration curves for two sites in the western one-third of the State because of substantial changes in farming practices (terracing and intensive ground-water withdrawal) that were not accounted for in the two previous studies (Furness, 1959; Jordan, 1983). For these two sites, there was enough historic, continuous-streamflow record available to perform record-extension techniques correlated to their respective index stations for the development of the estimated flow-duration curves. The estimated flow-duration curves at the ungaged sites can be used for projecting future flow frequencies for assessment of total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) or other water-quality constituents, water-availability studies, and for basin-characteristic studies.

A Coalescent-Based Estimator of Admixture From DNA Sequences

PubMed Central

Wang, Jinliang

2006-01-01

A variety of estimators have been developed to use genetic marker information in inferring the admixture proportions (parental contributions) of a hybrid population. The majority of these estimators used allele frequency data, ignored molecular information that is available in markers such as microsatellites and DNA sequences, and assumed that mutations are absent since the admixture event. As a result, these estimators may fail to deliver an estimate or give rather poor estimates when admixture is ancient and thus mutations are not negligible. A previous molecular estimator based its inference of admixture proportions on the average coalescent times between pairs of genes taken from within and between populations. In this article I propose an estimator that considers the entire genealogy of all of the sampled genes and infers admixture proportions from the numbers of segregating sites in DNA sequence samples. By considering the genealogy of all sequences rather than pairs of sequences, this new estimator also allows the joint estimation of other interesting parameters in the admixture model, such as admixture time, divergence time, population size, and mutation rate. Comparative analyses of simulated data indicate that the new coalescent estimator generally yields better estimates of admixture proportions than the previous molecular estimator, especially when the parental populations are not highly differentiated. It also gives reasonably accurate estimates of other admixture parameters. A human mtDNA sequence data set was analyzed to demonstrate the method, and the analysis results are discussed and compared with those from previous studies. PMID:16624918

Does oral language underpin the development of later behavior problems? A longitudinal meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chow, Jason C; Ekholm, Erik; Coleman, Heather

2018-05-24

The purpose of this article is to estimate the overall weighted mean effect of the relation between early language skills and later behavior problems in school-aged children. A systematic literature search yielded 19,790 unduplicated reports, and a structured search strategy and identification procedure yielded 25 unique data sets, with 114 effect sizes for analysis. Eligible reports were then coded, and effect sizes were extracted and synthesized via robust variance estimation and random-effects meta-analytic techniques. The overall correlation between early language and later behavior problems was negative and small (r = -.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] [-.16, -.11]), and controlling for demographic variables did not reduce the magnitude of the inverse relationship between language skill and problem behavior (r = -.16). Moderator analyses identified receptive language, parent-reported behavior measures, gender, and age as significant predictors of the association between language and behavior. This article corroborates the consistent findings of previous meta-analytic and longitudinal studies and further identifies areas, particularly around measurement, for future research. Furthermore, prospective longitudinal evaluations of the relations between language deficits and behavior problems with different types of measures (teacher-/parent-report, direct assessment, classroom observation) is warranted. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparison of the near field/far field model and the advanced reach tool (ART) model V1.5: exposure estimates to benzene during parts washing with mineral spirits.

PubMed

LeBlanc, Mallory; Allen, Joseph G; Herrick, Robert F; Stewart, James H

2018-03-01

The Advanced Reach Tool V1.5 (ART) is a mathematical model for occupational exposures conceptually based on, but implemented differently than, the "classic" Near Field/Far Field (NF/FF) exposure model. The NF/FF model conceptualizes two distinct exposure "zones"; the near field, within approximately 1m of the breathing zone, and the far field, consisting of the rest of the room in which the exposure occurs. ART has been reported to provide "realistic and reasonable worst case" estimates of the exposure distribution. In this study, benzene exposure during the use of a metal parts washer was modeled using ART V1.5, and compared to actual measured workers samples and to NF/FF model results from three previous studies. Next, the exposure concentrations expected to be exceeded 25%, 10% and 5% of the time for the exposure scenario were calculated using ART. Lastly, ART exposure estimates were compared with and without Bayesian adjustment. The modeled parts washing benzene exposure scenario included distinct tasks, e.g. spraying, brushing, rinsing and soaking/drying. Because ART can directly incorporate specific types of tasks that are part of the exposure scenario, the present analysis identified each task's determinants of exposure and performance time, thus extending the work of the previous three studies where the process of parts washing was modeled as one event. The ART 50th percentile exposure estimate for benzene (0.425ppm) more closely approximated the reported measured mean value of 0.50ppm than the NF/FF model estimates of 0.33ppm, 0.070ppm or 0.2ppm obtained from other modeling studies of this exposure scenario. The ART model with the Bayesian analysis provided the closest estimate to the measured value (0.50ppm). ART (with Bayesian adjustment) was then used to assess the 75th, the 90th and 95th percentile exposures, predicting that on randomly selected days during this parts washing exposure scenario, 25% of the benzene exposures would be above 0.70ppm; 10% above 0.95ppm; and 5% above 1.15ppm. These exposure estimates at the three different percentiles of the ART exposure distribution refer to the modeled exposure scenario not a specific workplace or worker. This study provides a detailed comparison of modeling tools currently available to occupational hygienists and other exposure assessors. Possible applications are considered. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary analysis of rubella viruses in mainland China during 2010–2012: endemic circulation of genotype 1E and introductions of genotype 2B

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhen; Rivailler, Pierre; Abernathy, Emily; Cui, Aili; Zhang, Yan; Mao, Naiyin; Xu, Songtao; Zhou, Shujie; Lei, Yue; Wang, Yan; Zheng, Huanying; He, Jilan; Chen, Ying; Li, Chongshan; Bo, Fang; Zhao, Chunfang; Chen, Meng; Lu, Peishan; Li, Fangcai; Gu, Suyi; Gao, Hui; Guo, Yu; Chen, Hui; Feng, Daxing; Wang, Shuang; Tang, Xiaomin; Lei, Yake; Feng, Yan; Deng, Lili; Gong, Tian; Fan, Lixia; Xu, Wenbo; Icenogle, Joseph; Chen, Xia; Tian, Hong; Ma, Yan; Liu, Leng; Liu, Li; Liu, Jianfeng; Fu, Hong; Yang, Yuying; Ma, Yujie; Zhao, Hua; Huang, Fang; Hu, Ying; Zhang, Hong; Tian, Xiaoling; Du, Hui; Ma, Xuemin; Zhang, Zhenying; Xu, Jin; Zhou, Jianhui; Ye, Xufang; Li, Jing; Lu, Yiyu; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Yanni; Zhao, Shengcang; Ba, Zhuoma

2015-01-01

Rubella remains a significant burden in mainland China. In this report, 667 viruses collected in 24 of 31 provinces of mainland China during 2010–2012 were sequenced and analyzed, significantly extending previous reports on limited numbers of viruses collected before 2010. Only viruses of genotypes 1E and 2B were found. Genotype 1E viruses were found in all 24 provinces. Genotype 1E viruses were likely introduced into mainland China around 1997 and endemic transmission of primarily one lineage became established. Viruses reported here from 2010–2012 are largely in a single cluster within this lineage. Genotype 2B viruses were rarely detected in China prior to 2010. This report documents a previously undetected 2B lineage, which likely became endemic in eastern provinces of China between 2010 and 2012. Bayesian analyses were performed to estimate the evolutionary rates and dates of appearance of the genotype 1E and 2B viral linages in China. A skyline plot of viral population diversity did not provide evidence of reduction of diversity as a result of vaccination, but should be useful as a baseline for such reductions as vaccination programs for rubella become widespread in mainland China. PMID:25613734

Evolutionary analysis of rubella viruses in mainland China during 2010-2012: endemic circulation of genotype 1E and introductions of genotype 2B.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen; Rivailler, Pierre; Abernathy, Emily; Cui, Aili; Zhang, Yan; Mao, Naiyin; Xu, Songtao; Zhou, Shujie; Lei, Yue; Wang, Yan; Zheng, Huanying; He, Jilan; Chen, Ying; Li, Chongshan; Bo, Fang; Zhao, Chunfang; Chen, Meng; Lu, Peishan; Li, Fangcai; Gu, Suyi; Gao, Hui; Guo, Yu; Chen, Hui; Feng, Daxing; Wang, Shuang; Tang, Xiaomin; Lei, Yake; Feng, Yan; Deng, Lili; Gong, Tian; Fan, Lixia; Xu, Wenbo; Icenogle, Joseph

2015-01-23

Rubella remains a significant burden in mainland China. In this report, 667 viruses collected in 24 of 31 provinces of mainland China during 2010-2012 were sequenced and analyzed, significantly extending previous reports on limited numbers of viruses collected before 2010. Only viruses of genotypes 1E and 2B were found. Genotype 1E viruses were found in all 24 provinces. Genotype 1E viruses were likely introduced into mainland China around 1997 and endemic transmission of primarily one lineage became established. Viruses reported here from 2010-2012 are largely in a single cluster within this lineage. Genotype 2B viruses were rarely detected in China prior to 2010. This report documents a previously undetected 2B lineage, which likely became endemic in eastern provinces of China between 2010 and 2012. Bayesian analyses were performed to estimate the evolutionary rates and dates of appearance of the genotype 1E and 2B viral linages in China. A skyline plot of viral population diversity did not provide evidence of reduction of diversity as a result of vaccination, but should be useful as a baseline for such reductions as vaccination programs for rubella become widespread in mainland China.

Using an Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance System to Evaluate Reporting of Potential Rabies Exposures, Illinois, 2013-2015.

PubMed

Bemis, Kelley; Frias, Mabel; Patel, Megan Toth; Christiansen, Demian

Mandatory reporting of potential rabies exposures and initiation of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) allow local health authorities to monitor PEP administration for errors. Our objectives were to use an emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance system to (1) estimate reporting compliance for exposure to rabies in suburban Cook County, Illinois, and (2) initiate interventions to improve reporting and reassess compliance. We queried ED records from 45 acute care hospitals in Cook County and surrounding areas from January 1, 2013, through June 30, 2015, for chief complaints or discharge diagnoses pertaining to rabies, PEP, or contact with a wild mammal (eg, bat, raccoon, skunk, fox, or coyote). We matched patients with ≥1 ED visit for potential rabies exposure to people with potential rabies exposure reported to the Cook County Department of Public Health. We considered nonmatches to have unreported exposures. We then initiated active surveillance in July 2015, disseminated education on reporting requirements in August and September 2015, and reassessed reporting completeness from July 2015 through February 2016. Of 248 patients with rabies-related ED visits from January 2013 through June 2015, 63 (25.4%) were reported. After interventions were implemented to increase reporting compliance, 53 of 98 (54.1%) patients with rabies-related ED visits from July 2015 through February 2016 were reported. Patients with ED visits for potential rabies exposure were twice as likely to be reported postintervention than preintervention (risk ratio = 2.1; 95% CI, 1.6-2.8). The volume of potential rabies exposure cases reported to the health department from July 2015 through February 2016 increased by 252% versus the previous year. Potential rabies exposures and PEP initiation are underreported in suburban Cook County. ED syndromic surveillance records can be used to estimate reporting compliance and conduct active surveillance.

Apple Procyanidins Suppress Amyloid β-Protein Aggregation

PubMed Central

Toda, Toshihiko; Sunagawa, Tadahiro; Kanda, Tomomasa; Tagashira, Motoyuki; Shirasawa, Takuji; Shimizu, Takahiko

2011-01-01

Procyanidins (PCs) are major components of the apple polyphenols (APs). We previously reported that treatment with PC extended the mean lifespan of Caenorhabditis elegans (Sunagawa et al., 2011). In order to estimate the neuroprotective effects of PC, we investigated the antiaggregative activity of PC on amyloid β-protein (Aβ) aggregation, which is a pathological hallmark of Alzheimer's disease. We herein report that PC significantly suppressed Aβ42 aggregation and dissociated Aβ42 aggregates in a dose-dependent manner, indicating that PC is a potent suppressor of Aβ aggregation. Furthermore, PC significantly inhibited Aβ42 neurotoxicity and stimulated proliferation in PC-12 cells. These results suggested that the PC and AP acted as neuroprotective factors against toxic Aβ aggregates. PMID:21826271

Bathymetric survey of the nearshore from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass, Louisiana: methods and data report

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWitt, Nancy T.; Flocks, James G.; Hansen, Mark; Kulp, Mark; Reynolds, B.J.

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the University of New Orleans (UNO) and the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources (LDNR), conducted a high-resolution, single-beam bathymetric survey along the Louisiana southern coastal zone from Belle Pass to Caminada Pass. The survey consisted of 483 line kilometers of data acquired in July and August of 2005. This report outlines the methodology and provides the data from the survey. Analysis of the data and comparison to a similar bathymetric survey completed in 1989 show significant loss of seafloor and shoreline retreat, which is consistent with previously published estimates of shoreline change in the study area.

Molecular carbon isotopic evidence for the origin of geothermal hydrocarbons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Des Marais, D.J.; Donchin, J.H.; Nehring, N.L.; Truesdell, A.H.

1981-01-01

Previous interest in light hydrocarbons from geothermal systems has focused principally on the origin of the methane1 and the estimation of subsurface temperatures from the carbon isotopic content of coexisting methane and carbon dioxide1-3. Higher molecular weight hydrocarbons were first reported in gases from Yellowstone National Park4, and have since been found to occur commonly in geothermal emanations in the western United States5. Isotopic measurements of individual geothermal hydrocarbons are now reported which help to explain the origin of these hydrocarbons. The thermal decomposition of sedimentary or groundwater organic matter is a principal source of hydrocarbons in four geothermal areas in western North America. ?? 1981 Nature Publishing Group.

HIV prevalence and behavioral studies in female sex workers in Togo: a decline in the prevalence between 2005 and 2011.

PubMed

Pitché, Palokinam; Gbetoglo, Komi; Saka, Bayaki; Akakpo, Séfako; Landoh, Dadja Essoya; d'Alméida, Stéphane; Banla, Abiba Kere; Sodji, Dométo; Deku, Kodzo

2013-01-01

We determined the sero-prevalence of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs) in Togo identified their sexual risk behaviors. We conducted a cross-sectional study from 17 to 27 December, 2011 on 1106 FSWs in Togo. Venous sample were collected to estimate HIV prevalence as per national algorithms. Behavior data were collected by interviewer-administered questionnaires. Of the 1106 FSWs (mean age = 27.6 years) surveyed, 17% and 63% had their first sexual intercourse before the age of 15 and 18 years respectively. Overall, 43.4% of the FSWs had more than seven clients per week. Most FSWs (95%) said they had sex using a condom in their lifetime while 8.8% had used a condom during their last sexual intercourse. About 79% of FSWs used a condom during their sexual encounters the previous week and 11.6% had used a condom during each of their sexual encounters the previous day. Most FSWs (62.2%) reported to have been tested for HIV. Of these, 145 (13.1%) were HIV positive. HIV sero-prevalence decreased from 19.4% in the south to 7.5% in the north of the country. Behaviors associated with FSW being HIV positive included: FSW having more than 7 clients per week (p < 0.001), not using condoms at every intercourse act (p = 0.003) or during the last sexual encounter (p = 0.006) and trading sex in brothels (p < 0.001). We estimate HIV sero-prevalence among FSWs in 2011 to be 13.1% in Togo, significantly lower than a prevalence of 29.5% estimated previously in 2005. Inconsistent use of condoms was identified as associated with high risk factor for acquiring HIV.

Real-time image restoration for iris recognition systems.

PubMed

Kang, Byung Jun; Park, Kang Ryoung

2007-12-01

In the field of biometrics, it has been reported that iris recognition techniques have shown high levels of accuracy because unique patterns of the human iris, which has very many degrees of freedom, are used. However, because conventional iris cameras have small depth-of-field (DOF) areas, input iris images can easily be blurred, which can lead to lower recognition performance, since iris patterns are transformed by the blurring caused by optical defocusing. To overcome these problems, an autofocusing camera can be used. However, this inevitably increases the cost, size, and complexity of the system. Therefore, we propose a new real-time iris image-restoration method, which can increase the camera's DOF without requiring any additional hardware. This paper presents five novelties as compared to previous works: 1) by excluding eyelash and eyelid regions, it is possible to obtain more accurate focus scores from input iris images; 2) the parameter of the point spread function (PSF) can be estimated in terms of camera optics and measured focus scores; therefore, parameter estimation is more accurate than it has been in previous research; 3) because the PSF parameter can be obtained by using a predetermined equation, iris image restoration can be done in real-time; 4) by using a constrained least square (CLS) restoration filter that considers noise, performance can be greatly enhanced; and 5) restoration accuracy can also be enhanced by estimating the weight value of the noise-regularization term of the CLS filter according to the amount of image blurring. Experimental results showed that iris recognition errors when using the proposed restoration method were greatly reduced as compared to those results achieved without restoration or those achieved using previous iris-restoration methods.

Genome-wide association study of telomere length among South Asians identifies a second RTEL1 association signal

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chenan; Chen, Lin S; Gao, Jianjun; Roy, Shantanu; Shinkle, Justin; Sabarinathan, Mekala; Tong, Lin; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Rakibuz-Zaman, Muhammad; Sarwar, Golam; Shahriar, Hasan; Rahman, Mahfuzar; Yunus, Mohammad; Jasmine, Farzana; Kibriya, Muhammad G; Ahsan, Habibul; Pierce, Brandon L

2018-01-01

Background Leucocyte telomere length (TL) is a potential biomarker of ageing and risk for age-related disease. Leucocyte TL is heritable and shows substantial differences by race/ethnicity. Recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) report ~10 loci harbouring SNPs associated with leucocyte TL, but these studies focus primarily on populations of European ancestry. Objective This study aims to enhance our understanding of genetic determinants of TL across populations. Methods We performed a GWAS of TL using data on 5075 Bangladeshi adults. We measured TL using one of two technologies (qPCR or a Luminex-based method) and used standardised variables as TL phenotypes. Results Our results replicate previously reported associations in the TERC and TERT regions (P=2.2×10−8 and P=6.4×10−6, respectively). We observed a novel association signal in the RTEL1 gene (intronic SNP rs2297439; P=2.82×10−7) that is independent of previously reported TL-associated SNPs in this region. The minor allele for rs2297439 is common in South Asian populations (≥0.25) but at lower frequencies in other populations (eg, 0.07 in Northern Europeans). Among the eight other previously reported association signals, all were directionally consistent with our study, but only rs8105767 (ZNF208) was nominally significant (P=0.003). SNP-based heritability estimates were as high as 44% when analysing close relatives but much lower when analysing distant relatives only. Conclusions In this first GWAS of TL in a South Asian population, we replicate some, but not all, of the loci reported in prior GWAS of individuals of European ancestry, and we identify a novel second association signal at the RTEL1 locus. PMID:29151059

Genetic dissection of hybrid incompatibilities between Drosophila simulans and D. mauritiana. I. Differential accumulation of hybrid male sterility effects on the X and autosomes.

PubMed Central

Tao, Yun; Chen, Sining; Hartl, Daniel L; Laurie, Cathy C

2003-01-01

The genetic basis of hybrid incompatibility in crosses between Drosophila mauritiana and D. simulans was investigated to gain insight into the evolutionary mechanisms of speciation. In this study, segments of the D. mauritiana third chromosome were introgressed into a D. simulans genetic background and tested as homozygotes for viability, male fertility, and female fertility. The entire third chromosome was covered with partially overlapping segments. Many segments were male sterile, while none were female sterile or lethal, confirming previous reports of the rapid evolution of hybrid male sterility (HMS). A statistical model was developed to quantify the HMS accumulation. In comparison with previous work on the X chromosome, we estimate that the X has approximately 2.5 times the density of HMS factors as the autosomes. We also estimate that the whole genome contains approximately 15 HMS "equivalents"-i.e., 15 times the minimum number of incompatibility factors necessary to cause complete sterility. Although some caveats for the quantitative estimate of a 2.5-fold density difference are described, this study supports the notion that the X chromosome plays a special role in the evolution of reproductive isolation. Possible mechanisms of a "large X" effect include selective fixation of new mutations that are recessive or partially recessive and the evolution of sex-ratio distortion systems. PMID:12930747

Genetic dissection of hybrid incompatibilities between Drosophila simulans and D. mauritiana. I. Differential accumulation of hybrid male sterility effects on the X and autosomes.

PubMed

Tao, Yun; Chen, Sining; Hartl, Daniel L; Laurie, Cathy C

2003-08-01

The genetic basis of hybrid incompatibility in crosses between Drosophila mauritiana and D. simulans was investigated to gain insight into the evolutionary mechanisms of speciation. In this study, segments of the D. mauritiana third chromosome were introgressed into a D. simulans genetic background and tested as homozygotes for viability, male fertility, and female fertility. The entire third chromosome was covered with partially overlapping segments. Many segments were male sterile, while none were female sterile or lethal, confirming previous reports of the rapid evolution of hybrid male sterility (HMS). A statistical model was developed to quantify the HMS accumulation. In comparison with previous work on the X chromosome, we estimate that the X has approximately 2.5 times the density of HMS factors as the autosomes. We also estimate that the whole genome contains approximately 15 HMS "equivalents"-i.e., 15 times the minimum number of incompatibility factors necessary to cause complete sterility. Although some caveats for the quantitative estimate of a 2.5-fold density difference are described, this study supports the notion that the X chromosome plays a special role in the evolution of reproductive isolation. Possible mechanisms of a "large X" effect include selective fixation of new mutations that are recessive or partially recessive and the evolution of sex-ratio distortion systems.

Cost effectiveness of a community-based crisis intervention program for people bereaved by suicide.

PubMed

Comans, Tracy; Visser, Victoria; Scuffham, Paul

2013-01-01

Postvention services aim to ameliorate distress and reduce future incidences of suicide. The StandBy Response Service is one such service operating in Australia for those bereaved through suicide. Few previous studies have reported estimates or evaluations of the economic impact and outcomes associated with the implementation of bereavement/grief interventions. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a postvention service from a societal perspective. A Markov model was constructed to estimate the health outcomes, quality-adjusted life years, and associated costs such as medical costs and time off work. Data were obtained from a prospective cross-sectional study comparing previous clients of the StandBy service with a control group of people bereaved by suicide who had not had contact with StandBy. Costs and outcomes were measured at 1 year after suicide bereavement and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated. The base case found that the StandBy service dominated usual care with a cost saving from providing the StandBy service of AUS $803 and an increase in quality-adjusted life years of 0.02. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates there is an 81% chance the service would be cost-effective given a range of possible scenarios. Postvention services are a cost-effective strategy and may even be cost-saving if all costs to society from suicide are taken into account.

Nationwide incidence of motor neuron disease using the French health insurance information system database.

PubMed

Kab, Sofiane; Moisan, Frédéric; Preux, Pierre-Marie; Marin, Benoît; Elbaz, Alexis

2017-08-01

There are no estimates of the nationwide incidence of motor neuron disease (MND) in France. We used the French health insurance information system to identify incident MND cases (2012-2014), and compared incidence figures to those from three external sources. We identified incident MND cases (2012-2014) based on three data sources (riluzole claims, hospitalisation records, long-term chronic disease benefits), and computed MND incidence by age, gender, and geographic region. We used French mortality statistics, Limousin ALS registry data, and previous European studies based on administrative databases to perform external comparisons. We identified 6553 MND incident cases. After standardisation to the United States 2010 population, the age/gender-standardised incidence was 2.72/100,000 person-years (males, 3.37; females, 2.17; male:female ratio = 1.53, 95% CI1.46-1.61). There was no major spatial difference in MND distribution. Our data were in agreement with the French death database (standardised mortality ratio = 1.01, 95% CI = 0.96-1.06) and Limousin ALS registry (standardised incidence ratio = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.72-1.15). Incidence estimates were in the same range as those from previous studies. We report French nationwide incidence estimates of MND. Administrative databases including hospital discharge data and riluzole claims offer an interesting approach to identify large population-based samples of patients with MND for epidemiologic studies and surveillance.

Measuring eating disorder attitudes and behaviors: a reliability generalization study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Although score reliability is a sample-dependent characteristic, researchers often only report reliability estimates from previous studies as justification for employing particular questionnaires in their research. The present study followed reliability generalization procedures to determine the mean score reliability of the Eating Disorder Inventory and its most commonly employed subscales (Drive for Thinness, Bulimia, and Body Dissatisfaction) and the Eating Attitudes Test as a way to better identify those characteristics that might impact score reliability. Methods Published studies that used these measures were coded based on their reporting of reliability information and additional study characteristics that might influence score reliability. Results Score reliability estimates were included in 26.15% of studies using the EDI and 36.28% of studies using the EAT. Mean Cronbach’s alphas for the EDI (total score = .91; subscales = .75 to .89), EAT-40 (total score = .81) and EAT-26 (total score = .86; subscales = .56 to .80) suggested variability in estimated internal consistency. Whereas some EDI subscales exhibited higher score reliability in clinical eating disorder samples than in nonclinical samples, other subscales did not exhibit these differences. Score reliability information for the EAT was primarily reported for nonclinical samples, making it difficult to characterize the effect of type of sample on these measures. However, there was a tendency for mean score reliability to be higher in the adult (vs. adolescent) samples and in female (vs. male) samples. Conclusions Overall, this study highlights the importance of assessing and reporting internal consistency during every test administration because reliability is affected by characteristics of the participants being examined. PMID:24764530

Hospital utilization by health maintenance organizations. Separating apples from oranges.

PubMed

Mott, P D

1986-05-01

The hospitalization rate of HMOs is reported to be 444 bed days per 1,000 enrollees per year. It is often forgotten that there is also out-of-plan utilization. A review of previous studies and a survey of reporting practices by three HMOs illustrate many problems with HMO utilization data. HMO rates, like those of other insurers, reflect only the hospital admissions that the plans know about and pay for, not the total hospital experience of their enrollees. While only a thorough tracking of subscriber utilization of all insurers and institutions will provide estimates of the magnitude of unreported admissions and their impact on utilization rates, this report enumerates the ways in which patients may receive inpatient care without the HMO having a record of the admissions and/or having to pay for them. It was found that admissions can be unreported when another insurer or institution pays (e.g., Medicare, No Fault, Workmen's Compensation, duplicate coverage, school health and liability insurance or VA, military, municipal, and state hospitals); when the HMO does not cover benefits (e.g., cosmetic and oral surgery, experimental procedures, long-term psychiatric, chronic, or rehabilitation stays); and when HMO coverage is denied for procedural reasons (e.g., catastrophic stays covered by reinsurance, newborns, voluntary "leakage," or improper following of HMO procedures). True HMO rates are unknown but are estimated by some authors to be 7-37% higher than the reported figure, depending on which types of unreported use are estimated. There is a need for future analyses to quantify true hospitalization rates of enrollees of HMOs and other insurers.

A survey for Hα pulsar bow shocks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brownsberger, Sasha; Romani, Roger W., E-mail: rwr@astro.stanford.edu, E-mail: sashab@stanford.edu

2014-04-01

We report on a survey for Hα bow shock emission around nearby γ-detected energetic pulsars. This survey adds three Balmer-dominated neutron star bow shocks to the six previously confirmed examples. In addition to the shock around Fermi pulsar PSR J1741–2054, we now report Hα structures around two additional γ-ray pulsars, PSR J2030+4415 and PSR J1509–5850. These are the first known examples of Hα nebulae with pre-ionization halos. With new measurements, we show that a simple analytic model can account for the angular size and flux of the bow shocks' apices. The latter, in particular, provides a new pulsar probe andmore » indicates large moments of inertia and smaller distances than previously assumed in several cases. In particular, we show that the re-measured PSR J0437–4715 shock flux implies I = (1.7 ± 0.2) × 10{sup 45}/(f {sub HI}sin i) g cm{sup 2}. We also derive a distance d ≈ 0.72 kpc for the γ-ray only pulsar PSR J2030+4415 and revised distances for PSRs J1959+2048 (1.4 kpc) and J2555+6535 (∼1 kpc), smaller than the conventional DM-estimated values. Finally, we report upper limits for 94 additional LAT pulsars. An estimate of the survey sensitivity indicates that for a warm neutral medium filling factor φ{sub WNM} ∼ 0.3 there should be a total of approximately nine Hα bow shocks in our LAT-targeted survey; given that seven such objects are now known, a much larger φ{sub WNM} seems problematic.« less

Estimating past diameters of several species in the ponderosa pine subregion of Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Benjamin. Spada

1960-01-01

In certain kinds of forest growth studies, an estimate of diameter outside bark is required for trees as of some previous date. Previously, papers were published by this Station regarding estimation of past diameters of Douglas-fir and ponderosa pine. Since they were issued, new and more complete data have been collected for most of the major species in the ponderosa...

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom P.

In its 2012 report NHTSA simulated the effect four fleetwide mass reduction scenarios would have on the change in annual fatalities. NHTSA estimated that the most aggressive of these scenarios (reducing mass 5.2% in heavier light trucks and 2.6% in all other vehicles types except lighter cars) would result in a small reduction in societal fatalities. LBNL replicated the methodology NHTSA used to simulate six mass reduction scenarios, including the mass reductions recommended in the 2015 NRC committee report, and estimated in 2021 and 2025 by EPA in the TAR, using the updated data through 2012. The analysis indicates thatmore » the estimated x change in fatalities under each scenario based on the updated analysis is comparable to that in the 2012 analysis, but less beneficial or more detrimental than that in the 2016 analysis. For example, an across the board 100-lb reduction in mass would result in an estimated 157 additional annual fatalities based on the 2012 analysis, but would result in only an estimated 91 additional annual fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, and an additional 87 fatalities based on the current analysis. The mass reductions recommended by the 2015 NRC committee report6 would result in a 224 increase in annual fatalities in the 2012 analysis, a 344 decrease in annual fatalities in the 2016 analysis, and a 141 increase in fatalities in the current analysis. The mass reductions EPA estimated for 2025 in the TAR7 would result in a 203 decrease in fatalities based on the 2016 analysis, but an increase of 39 fatalities based on the current analysis. These results support NHTSA’s conclusion from its 2012 study that, when footprint is held fixed, “no judicious combination of mass reductions in the various classes of vehicles results in a statistically significant fatality increase and many potential combinations are safety-neutral as point estimates.”Like the previous NHTSA studies, this updated report concludes that the estimated effect of mass reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or footprint) reduction on risk” as shorthand for “the estimated change in risk as a function of its relationship to mass (or footprint) for vehicle models of recent design.”« less

Unreported workers’ compensation claims to the BLS Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses: Establishment factors

PubMed Central

Adams, Darrin A.; Bonauto, David K.

2016-01-01

Background Studies suggest employers underreport injuries to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (SOII); less is known about reporting differences by establishment characteristics. Methods We linked SOII data to Washington State workers’ compensation claims data, using unemployment insurance data to improve linking accuracy. We used multivariable regression models to estimate incidence ratios (IR) of unreported workers’ compensation claims for establishment characteristics. Results An estimated 70% of workers’ compensation claims were reported in SOII. Claims among state and local government establishments were most likely to be reported. Compared to large manufacturing establishments, unreported claims were most common among small educational services establishments (IR = 2.47, 95%CI: 1.52–4.01) and large construction establishments (IR = 2.05, 95%CI: 1.77–2.37). Conclusions Underreporting of workers’ compensation claims to SOII varies by establishment characteristics, obscuring true differences in work injury incidence. Findings may differ from previous research due to differences in study methods. Am. J. Ind. Med. 59:274–289, 2016. © 2016 The Authors. American Journal of Industrial Medicine Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26792563

Military, Charter, Unreported Domestic Traffic and General Aviation 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2015 Emission Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mortlock, Alan; VanAlstyne, Richard

1998-01-01

The report describes development of databases estimating aircraft engine exhaust emissions for the years 1976 and 1984 from global operations of Military, Charter, historic Soviet and Chinese, Unreported Domestic traffic, and General Aviation (GA). These databases were developed under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Advanced Subsonic Assessment (AST). McDonnell Douglas Corporation's (MDC), now part of the Boeing Company has previously estimated engine exhaust emissions' databases for the baseline year of 1992 and a 2015 forecast year scenario. Since their original creation, (Ward, 1994 and Metwally, 1995) revised technology algorithms have been developed. Additionally, GA databases have been created and all past NIDC emission inventories have been updated to reflect the new technology algorithms. Revised data (Baughcum, 1996 and Baughcum, 1997) for the scheduled inventories have been used in this report to provide a comparison of the total aviation emission forecasts from various components. Global results of two historic years (1976 and 1984), a baseline year (1992) and a forecast year (2015) are presented. Since engine emissions are directly related to fuel usage, an overview of individual aviation annual global fuel use for each inventory component is also given in this report.

Estimating aboveground live understory vegetation carbon in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Kristofer D.; Domke, Grant M.; Russell, Matthew B.; Walters, Brian; Hom, John; Peduzzi, Alicia; Birdsey, Richard; Dolan, Katelyn; Huang, Wenli

2017-12-01

Despite the key role that understory vegetation plays in ecosystems and the terrestrial carbon cycle, it is often overlooked and has few quantitative measurements, especially at national scales. To understand the contribution of understory carbon to the United States (US) carbon budget, we developed an approach that relies on field measurements of understory vegetation cover and height on US Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots. Allometric models were developed to estimate aboveground understory carbon. A spatial model based on stand characteristics and remotely sensed data was also applied to estimate understory carbon on all FIA plots. We found that most understory carbon was comprised of woody shrub species (64%), followed by nonwoody forbs and graminoid species (35%) and seedlings (1%). The largest estimates were found in temperate or warm humid locations such as the Pacific Northwest and southeastern US, thus following the same broad trend as aboveground tree biomass. The average understory aboveground carbon density was estimated to be 0.977 Mg ha-1, for a total estimate of 272 Tg carbon across all managed forest land in the US (approximately 2% of the total aboveground live tree carbon pool). This estimate is more than twice as low as previous FIA modeled estimates that did not rely on understory measurements, suggesting that this pool may currently be overestimated in US National Greenhouse Gas reporting.

Retrospective Assessment of Cost Savings From Prevention

PubMed Central

Grosse, Scott D.; Berry, Robert J.; Tilford, J. Mick; Kucik, James E.; Waitzman, Norman J.

2016-01-01

Introduction Although fortification of food with folic acid has been calculated to be cost saving in the U.S., updated estimates are needed. This analysis calculates new estimates from the societal perspective of net cost savings per year associated with mandatory folic acid fortification of enriched cereal grain products in the U.S. that was implemented during 1997–1998. Methods Estimates of annual numbers of live-born spina bifida cases in 1995–1996 relative to 1999–2011 based on birth defects surveillance data were combined during 2015 with published estimates of the present value of lifetime direct costs updated in 2014 U.S. dollars for a live-born infant with spina bifida to estimate avoided direct costs and net cost savings. Results The fortification mandate is estimated to have reduced the annual number of U.S. live-born spina bifida cases by 767, with a lower-bound estimate of 614. The present value of mean direct lifetime cost per infant with spina bifida is estimated to be $791,900, or $577,000 excluding caregiving costs. Using a best estimate of numbers of avoided live-born spina bifida cases, fortification is estimated to reduce the present value of total direct costs for each year's birth cohort by $603 million more than the cost of fortification. A lower-bound estimate of cost savings using conservative assumptions, including the upper-bound estimate of fortification cost, is $299 million. Conclusions The estimates of cost savings are larger than previously reported, even using conservative assumptions. The analysis can also inform assessments of folic acid fortification in other countries. PMID:26790341

Aqueous photolysis of the organic ultraviolet filter chemical octyl methoxycinnamate.

PubMed

MacManus-Spencer, Laura A; Tse, Monica L; Klein, Jacob L; Kracunas, Alison E

2011-05-01

Organic UV filter chemicals are the active ingredients in personal care products designed to protect the skin from UV radiation, and hundreds of tons are estimated to be produced annually. Despite their entrance into the aquatic environment by both direct and indirect routes and their detection in surface waters and fish, little is known about their environmental fate. UV filter chemicals are designed to be photostable, but some undergo transformation upon exposure to UV light. Octyl methoxycinnamate (OMC), a commonly used UV filter chemical, degrades rapidly by direct photolysis; previous studies have focused on its photoisomerization, and a few investigators have reported the formation of cyclodimers. Here, we present the kinetics and quantum efficiency of the direct photolysis of OMC and confirm that dimerization occurs as a result of direct photolysis in aqueous solution. Likely identities of the dimers are offered based on comparison to reported results for other cinnamate derivatives. We have identified additional products of direct photolysis that have not been previously reported and investigated their photostability, as well as the mechanism of product formation. There is also some evidence of indirect photolysis in the presence of dissolved natural organic matter.

Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: a critical review of measurement and associations

PubMed Central

Kurina, Lianne M.; McClintock, Martha K.; Chen, Jen-Hao; Waite, Linda J.; Thisted, Ronald A.; Lauderdale, Diane S.

2013-01-01

Purpose Variation in sleep duration has been linked with mortality risk. The purpose of this review is to provide an updated evaluation of the literature on sleep duration and mortality, including a critical examination of sleep duration measurement and an examination of correlates of self-reported sleep duration. Methods We did a systematic search of studies reporting associations between sleep duration and all-cause mortality and extracted the sleep duration measure and the measure(s) of association. Results We identified 42 prospective studies of sleep duration and mortality drawing on 35 distinct study populations across the globe. Unlike previous reviews, we find that the published literature does not support a consistent finding of an association between self-reported sleep duration and mortality. Most studies have employed survey measures of sleep duration, which are not highly correlated with estimates based on physiologic measures. Conclusions Despite a large body of literature, it is premature to conclude, as previous reviews have, that a robust, U-shaped association between sleep duration and mortality risk exists across populations. Careful attention must be paid to measurement, response bias, confounding, and reverse causation in the interpretation of associations between sleep duration and mortality. PMID:23622956