17 CFR Appendix A to Part 36 - Guidance on Significant Price Discovery Contracts

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... that can be combined with other contracts to exploit expected economic relationships in anticipation of...'s viability in an arbitrage strategy; and will rely on direct observation confirming the use of a...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 36 - Guidance on Significant Price Discovery Contracts

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... that can be combined with other contracts to exploit expected economic relationships in anticipation of...'s viability in an arbitrage strategy; and will rely on direct observation confirming the use of a...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 36 - Guidance on Significant Price Discovery Contracts

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... that can be combined with other contracts to exploit expected economic relationships in anticipation of...'s viability in an arbitrage strategy; and will rely on direct observation confirming the use of a...

17 CFR Appendix A to Part 36 - Guidance on Significant Price Discovery Contracts

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... that can be combined with other contracts to exploit expected economic relationships in anticipation of...'s viability in an arbitrage strategy; and will rely on direct observation confirming the use of a...

Analyzing the Stability of Price Response Functions: Measuring the Influence of Different Parameters in a Monte Carlo Comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brusch, Michael; Baier, Daniel

The usage and the estimation of price response function is very important for strategic marketing decisions. Typically price response functions with an empirical basis are used. However, such price response functions are subject to a lot of disturbing influence factors, e.g., the assumed profit maximum price and the assumed corresponding quantity of sales. In such cases, the question how stable the found price response function is was not answered sufficiently up to now. In this paper, the question will be pursued how much (and what kind of) errors in market research are pardonable for a stable price response function. For the comparisons, a factorial design with synthetically generated and disturbed data is used.

Analysis of the rate of wildcat drilling and deposit discovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.

1975-01-01

The rate at which petroleum deposits were discovered during a 16-yr period (1957-72) was examined in relation to changes in a suite of economic and physical variables. The study area encompasses 11,000 mi2 and is located on the eastern flank of the Powder River Basin. A two-stage multiple-regression model was used as a basis for this analysis. The variables employed in this model were: (1) the yearly wildcat drilling rate, (2) a measure of the extent of the physical exhaustion of the resource base of the region, (3) a proxy for the discovery expectation of the exploration operators active in the region, (4) an exploration price/cost ratio, and (5) the expected depths of the exploration targets sought. The rate at which wildcat wells were drilled was strongly correlated with the discovery expectation of the exploration operators. Small additional variations in the wildcat drilling rate were explained by the price/cost ratio and target-depth variables. The number of deposits discovered each year was highly dependent on the wildcat drilling rate, but the aggregate quantity of petroleum discovered each year was independent of the wildcat drilling rate. The independence between these last two variables is a consequence of the cyclical behavior of the exploration play mechanism. Although the discovery success ratio declined sharply during the initial phases of the two exploration plays which developed in the study area, a learning effect occurred whereby the discovery success ratio improved steadily with the passage of time during both exploration plays. ?? 1975 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

A Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange to Grow the Lunar Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahan, B. B. C.

2017-10-01

This paper proposes to establish a Space Commodities Futures Trading Exchange in order to define and trade essential commodities that, when traded on an open exchange, improve availability, quality, price discovery, financeability, and equal access.

Birth of the first ESS: George Price, John Maynard Smith, and the discovery of the lost "Antlers" paper.

PubMed

Harman, Oren

2011-01-15

The application of game theory to evolutionary problems is so commonplace today, that few stop to consider how it all began. John Maynard Smith and George R. Price's 1973 Nature article, "The Logic of Animal Conflict," is often referred to as the first description in the literature of the concept of an evolutionary stable strategy (ESS), but what was the "behind the scenes" of the writing of that seminal paper? This article tracks the little known story of the curious American polymath, George Price. As will be shown, it was an earlier paper, the lost "Antlers, Intraspecific Combat, and Altruism," sent by Price to Nature in August 1968 (Unpublished), and refereed by Maynard Smith, which instigated the birth of the first ESS. Recently, the "Antlers" paper has been re-discovered by the author, shedding new light, together with letters and journals from the personal papers of George Price and John Maynard Smith, on their historical paper. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mercury - Its occurrence and economic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, Edgar H.; Smith, Roscoe M.

1964-01-01

price will be a predictable increase in production. If the price averages $300 a flask for 1 year or more, annual production may increase to a rate of 30,000-35,000 flasks in 1966 or 1967. If the price averages $400 a flask, production may increase to 45,000-50,000 flasks a year after a timelag of two or three years. New ore bodies would have to be found however, to attain these rates of production, and the mining of lower grade ores would be needed to sustain them for more than a few years. By 1966 the U.S. economy will require at least 67 000 flasks, and the domestic demand for mercury thereafter will continue to increase. The probability that domestic mines will continue to supply a fourth or more of the domestic consumption is dependent upon the price of mercury for the next few years. The outlook for the long-term supply is reassuring, but it is dependent, not only upon price, but upon continued progress in new techniques of discovery.

The ethics and economics of pharmaceutical pricing.

PubMed

Parker-Lue, Sara; Santoro, Michael; Koski, Greg

2015-01-01

The cost of drugs is a major and rapidly rising component of health-care expenditures. We survey recent literature on the ethics and economics of skyrocketing pharmaceutical prices and find that advances in economic research have increased the sharpness and focus of the ethically based calls to increase access by modifying patent protection and reducing prices. In some cases, research supports ethical arguments for broader access. Other research suggests that efforts to broaden access result in unintended consequences for innovation and the medical needs of patients. Both ethicists and economists need to be more cognizant of the real clinical settings in which physicians practice medicine with real patients. Greater cross-disciplinary interaction among economists, ethicists, and physicians can help reduce the disjunction between innovation and access and improve access and patient care. This dialogue will impact private industry and may spur new multistakeholder paradigms for drug discovery, development, and pricing.

75 FR 33198 - Co-Location/Proximity Hosting Services

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-11

... Execution Facilities (DTEFs), and Exempt Commercial Markets (ECMs) that list significant price discovery..., DTEFs, and ECMs with SPDCs, that offer co-location and/ or proximity hosting services, to disclose.... Finally, the Proposal would require DCMs, DTEFs, and ECMs with SPDCs, that approve third-parties to...

University-Industry Relations, Regionalisation, Internationalisation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drilhon, Gabriel

1993-01-01

University-industry relations are examined in the context of countries in which universities are seen as potential resources for regional development. Issues discussed include different forms of cooperation, pricing of research, competition, intellectual property rights, choice of company for developing a discovery, and the broader issue of…

Rare-earth metal prices in the USA ca. 1960 to 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedrick, James B.

1997-01-01

Rare-earth metal prices were compiled from the late 1950s and early 1960s through 1994. Although commercial demand for rare-earth metals began in 1908, as the alloy mischmetal, commercial quantities of a wide range of individual rare-earth metals were not available until the late 1950s. The discovery of a large, high-grade rare-earth deposit at Mountain Pass. CA, USA, in 1949, was significant because it led to the production of commercial quantities or rare-earth elements that reduced prices and encouraged wider application of the materials. The availability of ore from Mountain Pass, and other large rare-earth deposits, especially those in Australia and China, has provided the world with abundant resources for rare-earth metal production. This availability, coupled with improved technology from Government and private-sector metallurgical research, has resulted in substantial decreases in rare-earth metal prices since the late 1950s and early 1960s. Price series for the individual rare-earth metals (except promethium) are quoted on a kilogram basis from the late 1950s and early 1960s through 1994. Prices are given in US dollars on an actual and constant dollar basis. Industrial and economic factors affecting prices during this time period are examined.

Rare-earth metal prices in the USA ca. 1960 to 1994

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hedrick, J.B.

1997-01-01

Rare-earth metal prices were compiled from the late 1950s and early 1960s through 1994. Although commercial demand for rare-earth metals began in 1908, as the alloy mischmetal, commercial quantities of a wide range of individual rare-earth metals were not available until the late 1950s. The discovery of a large, high-grade rare-earth deposit at Mountain Pass, CA, USA, in 1949, was significant because it led to the production of commercial quantities of rare-earth elements that reduced prices and encouraged wider application of the materials. The availability of ore from Mountain Pass, and other large rare-earth deposits, especially those in Australia and China, has provided the world with abundant resources for rare-earth metal production. This availability, coupled with improved technology from Government and private-sector metallurgical research, has resulted in substantial decreases in rare-earth metal prices since the late 1950s and early 1960s. Price series for the individual rare-earth metals (except promethium) are quoted on a kilogram basis from the late 1950s and early 1960s through 1994. Prices are given in US dollars on an actual and constant dollar basis. Industrial and economic factors affecting prices during this time period are examined.

On the cradle of CCM research: discovery, development, and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Kaplan, Aaron

2017-06-01

Herein, 40 years after its discovery, I briefly and critically survey the development of ideas that propelled research on CO2-concentrating mechanisms (CCMs; a term proposed by Dean Price) of phytoplankton, mainly focusing on cyanobacteria. This is not a comprehensive review on CCM research, but a personal view on the past developments and challenges that lie ahead. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Diamonds: Exploration, mines and marketing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, George H.; Janse, A. J. A. (Bram)

2009-11-01

The beauty, value and mystique of exceptional quality diamonds such as the 603 carat Lesotho Promise, recovered from the Letseng Mine in 2006, help to drive a multi-billion dollar diamond exploration, mining and marketing industry that operates in some 45 countries across the globe. Five countries, Botswana, Russia, Canada, South Africa and Angola account for 83% by value and 65% by weight of annual diamond production, which is mainly produced by four major companies, De Beers, Alrosa, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton (BHPB), which together account for 78% by value and 72% by weight of annual diamond production for 2007. During the last twelve years 16 new diamond mines commenced production and 4 re-opened. In addition, 11 projects are in advanced evaluation and may begin operations within the next five years. Exploration for diamondiferous kimberlites was still energetic up to the last quarter of 2008 with most work carried out in Canada, Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Botswana. Many kimberlites were discovered but no new economic deposits were outlined as a result of this work, except for the discovery and possible development of the Bunder project by Rio Tinto in India. Exploration methods have benefitted greatly from improved techniques of high resolution geophysical aerial surveying, new research into the geochemistry of indicator minerals and further insights into the formation of diamonds and the relation to tectonic/structural events in the crust and mantle. Recent trends in diamond marketing indicate that prices for rough diamonds and polished goods were still rising up to the last quarter of 2008 and subsequently abruptly sank in line with the worldwide financial crisis. Most analysts predict that prices will rise again in the long term as the gap between supply and demand will widen because no new economic diamond discoveries have been made recently. The disparity between high rough and polished prices and low share prices of publicly traded diamond companies may be due to investors losing patience with the slow pace or absence of new promising discoveries and switching into shares of base metals and fertilizers for agriculture (potash and phosphates).

Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankar Sana, Shib

2012-03-01

Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

17 CFR 38.1201 - Additional sources for compliance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... designing a futures contract, the designated contract market should conduct market research so that the contract design meets the risk management needs of prospective users and promotes price discovery of the... and opinions during the contract design process to ensure the contract's term and conditions reflect...

76 FR 12888 - Registration of Intermediaries

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-09

... enacted by Title VII of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act... list of principals remains a meaningful reflection of the persons who actually exercise control over... the futures markets; (3) price discovery; (4) sound risk management practices; and (5) other public...

Understanding Science: Studies of Communication and Information.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffith, Belver C.

1989-01-01

Sets bibliometrics in the context of the sociology of science by tracing the influences of Robert Merton, Thomas Kuhn, and D. J. Price. Explores the discovery of strong empirical relationships among measured communication and information that capture important features of social process and cognitive change in science. (SR)

Discovery of innovative therapeutics: today's realities and tomorrow's vision. 2. Pharma's challenges and their commitment to innovation.

PubMed

Abou-Gharbia, Magid; Childers, Wayne E

2014-07-10

The pharmaceutical industry is facing enormous challenges, including reduced efficiency, stagnant success rate, patent expirations for key drugs, fierce price competition from generics, high regulatory hurdles, and the industry's perceived tarnished image. Pharma has responded by embarking on a range of initiatives. Other sectors, including NIH, have also responded. Academic drug discovery groups have appeared to support the transition of innovative academic discoveries and ideas into attractive drug discovery opportunities. Part 1 of this two-part series discussed the criticisms that have been leveled at the pharmaceutical industry over the past 3 decades and summarized the supporting data for and against these criticisms. This second installment will focus on the current challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry and Pharma's responses, focusing on the industry's changing perspective and new business models for coping with the loss of talent and declining clinical pipelines as well as presenting some examples of recent drug discovery successes.

75 FR 15635 - Delegations of Authority To Disclose Confidential Information

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-30

... significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') on exempt commercial markets (``ECMs'') and, among other statutory amendments, adds ECMs with SPDCs to the definition of ``registered entity'' in section 1(a)(29) of the CEA.\\7\\ Accordingly, with respect to a contract that the Commission determines is a SPDC, the ECM...

The path to next generation biofuels: successes and challenges in the era of synthetic biology

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Volatility of oil prices along with major concerns about climate change, oil supply security and depleting reserves have sparked renewed interest in the production of fuels from renewable resources. Recent advances in synthetic biology provide new tools for metabolic engineers to direct their strategies and construct optimal biocatalysts for the sustainable production of biofuels. Metabolic engineering and synthetic biology efforts entailing the engineering of native and de novo pathways for conversion of biomass constituents to short-chain alcohols and advanced biofuels are herewith reviewed. In the foreseeable future, formal integration of functional genomics and systems biology with synthetic biology and metabolic engineering will undoubtedly support the discovery, characterization, and engineering of new metabolic routes and more efficient microbial systems for the production of biofuels. PMID:20089184

Endogenous versus exogenous generic reference pricing for pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Antoñanzas, F; Juárez-Castelló, C A; Rodríguez-Ibeas, R

2017-12-01

In this paper we carry out a vertical differentiation duopoly model applied to pharmaceutical markets to analyze how endogenous and exogenous generic reference pricing influence competition between generic and branded drugs producers. Unlike the literature, we characterize for the exogenous case the equilibrium prices for all feasible relevant reference prices. Competition is enhanced after the introduction of a reference pricing system. We also compare both reference pricing systems on welfare grounds, assuming two different objective functions for health authorities: (i) standard social welfare and (ii) gross consumer surplus net of total pharmaceutical expenditures. We show that regardless of the objective function, health authorities will never choose endogenous reference pricing. When health authorities are paternalistic, the exogenous reference price that maximizes standard social welfare is such that the price of the generic drug is the reference price while the price of the branded drug is higher than the reference price. When health authorities are not paternalistic, the optimal exogenous reference price is such that the price of the branded drug is the reference price while the price of the generic drug is lower than the reference price.

The Study of “big data” to support internal business strategists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Mei

2018-01-01

How is big data different from previous data analysis systems? The primary purpose behind traditional small data analytics that all managers are more or less familiar with is to support internal business strategies. But big data also offers a promising new dimension: to discover new opportunities to offer customers high-value products and services. The study focus to introduce some strategists which big data support to. Business decisions using big data can also involve some areas for analytics. They include customer satisfaction, customer journeys, supply chains, risk management, competitive intelligence, pricing, discovery and experimentation or facilitating big data discovery.

Learning monopolies with delayed feedback on price expectations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2015-11-01

We call the intercept of the price function with the vertical axis the maximum price and the slope of the price function the marginal price. In this paper it is assumed that a monopolistic firm has full information about the marginal price and its own cost function but is uncertain on the maximum price. However, by repeated interaction with the market, the obtained price observations give a basis for an adaptive learning process of the maximum price. It is also assumed that the price observations have fixed delays, so the learning process can be described by a delayed differential equation. In the cases of one or two delays, the asymptotic behavior of the resulting dynamic process is examined, stability conditions are derived. Three main results are demonstrated in the two delay learning processes. First, it is possible to stabilize the equilibrium which is unstable in the one delay model. Second, complex dynamics involving chaos, which is impossible in the one delay model, can emerge. Third, alternations of stability and instability (i.e., stability switches) occur repeatedly.

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak.

PubMed

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels.

The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-03-01

The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

Alaskan North Slope Geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, Warren

The discovery well for the Prudhoe Bay field, the largest oil accumulatn yet found in the United States, was drilled on the Arctic coast of Alaska by ARCO and Exxon in 1968. A decade of exploratory geology and increasingly detailed geophysical surveys, mostly by Sinclair and British Petroleum in the early years, but then by a number of companies, preceded the discovery. Systematic U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reconnaissance of the Brooks Range—the great mountain system of northern Alaska—had begun in the 1940s and was accelerated after the discovery, as was industry work. In the last decade, scientists from the Alaska Division of Geology and Geophysics and from various universities have become increasingly involved. This modestly priced two-volume work presents hitherto unavailable summaries of much of this modern work.

New Knowledge Management Systems: The Implications for Data Discovery, Collection Development, and the Changing Role of the Librarian.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stern, David

2003-01-01

Discusses questions to consider as chemistry libraries develop new information storage and retrieval systems. Addresses new integrated tools for data manipulation that will guarantee access to information; differential pricing and package plans and effects on libraries' budgeting; and the changing role of the librarian. (LRW)

77 FR 11345 - Harmonization of Compliance Obligations for Registered Investment Companies Required To Register...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-24

... his or her knowledge and belief, the information contained in the document is accurate and complete. The first item in the certification required by SEC Form N-CSR is: ``Based on my knowledge, this..., competitiveness and financial integrity of futures markets; (3) price discovery; (4) sound risk management...

17 CFR Appendix B to Part 36 - Guidance on, and Acceptable Practices in, Compliance With Core Principles

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... spot-month positions. Spot-month limits should be adopted for significant price discovery contracts to... market or derivatives transaction execution facility should set the spot-month limit for its significant... designated contract market or derivatives transaction execution facility. In this case, the spot-month...

75 FR 24606 - Order Finding That the TCO Financial Basis Contract Traded on the IntercontinentalExchange, Inc...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-05

...'') contract traded on the IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (``ICE''), an exempt commercial market (``ECM...\\ significantly broadened the CFTC's regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs...

Study on probability distribution of prices in electricity market: A case study of zhejiang province, china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Chen, B.; Han, Z. X.; Zhang, F. Q.

2009-05-01

The study on probability density function and distribution function of electricity prices contributes to the power suppliers and purchasers to estimate their own management accurately, and helps the regulator monitor the periods deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption of normal distribution load and non-linear characteristic of the aggregate supply curve, this paper has derived the distribution of electricity prices as the function of random variable of load. The conclusion has been validated with the electricity price data of Zhejiang market. The results show that electricity prices obey normal distribution approximately only when supply-demand relationship is loose, whereas the prices deviate from normal distribution and present strong right-skewness characteristic. Finally, the real electricity markets also display the narrow-peak characteristic when undersupply occurs.

Global Phosphorus Fertilizer Market and National Policies: A Case Study Revisiting the 2008 Price Peak

PubMed Central

Khabarov, Nikolay; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-01-01

The commodity market super-cycle and food price crisis have been associated with rampant food insecurity and the Arab spring. A multitude of factors were identified as culprits for excessive volatility on the commodity markets. However, as it regards fertilizers, a clear attribution of market drivers explaining the emergence of extreme price events is still missing. In this paper, we provide a quantitative assessment of the price spike of the global phosphorus fertilizer market in 2008 focusing on diammonium phosphate (DAP). We find that fertilizer market policies in India, the largest global importer of phosphorus fertilizers and phosphate rock, turned out to be a major contributor to the global price spike. India doubled its import of P-fertilizer in 2008 at a time when prices doubled. The analysis of a wide set of factors pertinent to the 2008 price spike in phosphorus fertilizer market leads us to the discovery of a price spike magnification and triggering mechanisms. We find that the price spike was magnified on the one hand by protective trade measures of fertilizer suppliers leading to a 19% drop in global phosphate fertilizer export. On the other hand, the Indian fertilizer subsidy scheme led to farmers not adjusting their demand for fertilizer. The triggering mechanism appeared to be the Indian production outage of P-fertilizer resulting in the additional import demand for DAP in size of about 20% of annual global supply. The main conclusion is that these three factors have jointly caused the spike, underscoring the need for ex ante improvements in fertilizer market regulation on both national and international levels. PMID:28660192

75 FR 23679 - Order Finding That the ICE Malin Financial Basis Contract Traded on the IntercontinentalExchange...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-04

... commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act...\\ significantly broadened the CFTC's regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs...

75 FR 24586 - Order Finding That the San Juan Financial Basis Contract Traded on the IntercontinentalExchange...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-05

... (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act''), performs a...\\ significantly broadened the CFTC's regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs...

75 FR 39074 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGA Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what consequences might that have for the underlying stocks or other products? What are the potential effects on price discovery for the ETF, the underlying..., ETPs include Exchange Traded Funds (``ETF''),\\3\\ Exchange Traded Vehicles (``ETV''),\\4\\ and Exchange...

75 FR 39078 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... index? If there are trading pauses in an ETF but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what... price discovery for the ETF, the underlying stocks and other products? Are there other market-based... Change Related to Individual Stock Trading Pauses Due to Extraordinary Market Volatility June 30, 2010...

75 FR 39070 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... index? If there are trading pauses in an ETF but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what... price discovery for the ETF, the underlying stocks and other products? Are there other market-based... Exchange Traded Funds (``ETF''),\\3\\ Exchange Traded Vehicles (``ETV''),\\4\\ and Exchange Traded Notes (``ETN...

Intelligent Interoperable Agent Toolkit (I2AT)

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-02-01

Agents, Agent Infrastructure, Intelligent Agents 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT UNCLASSIFIED 18. SECURITY ...CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE UNCLASSIFIED 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT UNCLASSIFIED 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UL NSN 7540-01...those that occur while the submarine is submerged. Using CoABS Grid/Jini service discovery events backed up with a small amount of internal bookkeeping

Present Global Situation of Amino Acids in Industry.

PubMed

Tonouchi, Naoto; Ito, Hisao

At present, amino acids are widely produced and utilized industrially. Initially, monosodium glutamate (MSG) was produced by extraction from a gluten hydrolysate. The amino acid industry started using the residual of the lysate. The discovery of the functions of amino acids has led to the expansion of their field of use. In addition to seasoning and other food use, amino acids are used in many fields such as animal nutrients, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. On the other hand, the invention of the glutamate fermentation process, followed by the development of fermentation methods for many other amino acids, is no less important. The supply of these amino acids at a low price is very essential for their industrial use. Most amino acids are now produced by fermentation. The consumption of many amino acids such as MSG or feed-use amino acids is still rapidly increasing.

Applications of δ-function perturbation to the pricing of derivative securities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decamps, Marc; De Schepper, Ann; Goovaerts, Marc

2004-11-01

In the recent econophysics literature, the use of functional integrals is widespread for the calculation of option prices. In this paper, we extend this approach in several directions by means of δ-function perturbations. First, we show that results about infinitely repulsive δ-function are applicable to the pricing of barrier options. We also introduce functional integrals over skew paths that give rise to a new European option formula when combined with δ-function potential. We propose accurate closed-form approximations based on the theory of comonotonic risks in case the functional integrals are not analytically computable.

Online 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Morris

This paper examines the co-existence of online and CD-ROM technologies in terms of their existing pricing structures, marketing strategies, functionality, and future roles. "Fixed Price Unlimited Usage" (FPUU) pricing and flat-rate pricing are discussed as viable alternatives to current pricing practices. In addition, it is argued that the…

Construction of Discrete Time Shadow Price

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogala, Tomasz, E-mail: rogalatp@gmail.com; Stettner, Lukasz, E-mail: stettner@impan.pl

2015-12-15

In the paper expected utility from consumption over finite time horizon for discrete time markets with bid and ask prices and strictly concave utility function is considered. The notion of weak shadow price, i.e. an illiquid price, depending on the portfolio, under which the model without bid and ask price is equivalent to the model with bid and ask price is introduced. Existence and the form of weak shadow price is shown. Using weak shadow price usual (called in the paper strong) shadow price is then constructed.

75 FR 24626 - Order Finding That the TETCO-M3 Financial Basis Contract Traded on the IntercontinentalExchange...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-05

... (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act''), performs a...\\ significantly broadened the CFTC's regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs...

75 FR 23718 - Orders Finding That the Henry Financial Basis Contract, Henry Financial Index Contract and Henry...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-04

... exempt commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or... with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') are traded--and treating ECMs in that category...

75 FR 38469 - Orders Finding That the Mid-C Financial Peak Contract and Mid-C Financial Off-Peak Contract...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-02

... market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act... CFTC's regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') are traded--and treating...

75 FR 39076 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change by NYSE Arca, Inc...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... index? If there are trading pauses in an ETF but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what... price discovery for the ETF, the underlying stocks and other products? Are there other market-based...'') to the pilot rule. For purposes of this filing, ETPs include Exchange Traded Funds (``ETF''),\\4...

75 FR 39086 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change by NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what consequences might that have for the underlying stocks or other products? What are the potential effects on price discovery for the ETF, the underlying... Vehicles (``ETVs''),\\4\\ and Exchange Traded Notes (``ETNs'').\\5\\ \\3\\ An ETF is an open-ended registered...

75 FR 39065 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Stock Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... ETF but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what consequences might that have for the underlying stocks or other products? What are the potential effects on price discovery for the ETF, the underlying... Organizations; Chicago Stock Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Amend the List of...

75 FR 39063 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; National Stock Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-07

... products based on that index? If there are trading pauses in an ETF but not in the stocks that underlie that ETF, what consequences might that have for the underlying stocks or other products? What are the potential effects on price discovery for the ETF, the underlying stocks and other products? Are there other...

Strategic wholesale pricing for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting.

Strategic Wholesale Pricing for an Incumbent Supplier Facing with a Competitive Counterpart

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwu

2014-01-01

We introduce a wholesale pricing strategy for an incumbent supplier facing with a competitive counterpart. We propose a profit function which considers both the present loss and future loss from a wholesale price and then study the optimal wholesale prices for different objectives about this profit function for the incumbent supplier. First, we achieve an optimal wholesale price for the incumbent supplier to maximize his expected profit. Then, to reduce the risk originating from the fluctuation in the competitive supplier's wholesale price, we integrate the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) measure in financial risk management into this study and derive an optimal wholesale price to maximize CVaR about profit for the incumbent supplier. Besides, the properties of the two optimal wholesale prices are discussed. Finally, some management insights are suggested for the incumbent supplier in a competitive setting. PMID:25614891

A quantum mechanical model for the relationship between stock price and stock ownership

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotfas, Liviu-Adrian

2012-11-01

The trade of a fixed stock can be regarded as the basic process that measures its momentary price. The stock price is exactly known only at the time of sale when the stock is between traders, that is, only in the case when the owner is unknown. We show that the stock price can be better described by a function indicating at any moment of time the probabilities for the possible values of price if a transaction takes place. This more general description contains partial information on the stock price, but it also contains partial information on the stock owner.more » By following the analogy with quantum mechanics, we assume that the time evolution of the function describing the stock price can be described by a Schroedinger type equation.« less

Econophysics: Master curve for price-impact function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo, Fabrizio; Farmer, J. Doyne; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2003-01-01

The price reaction to a single transaction depends on transaction volume, the identity of the stock, and possibly many other factors. Here we show that, by taking into account the differences in liquidity for stocks of different size classes of market capitalization, we can rescale both the average price shift and the transaction volume to obtain a uniform price-impact curve for all size classes of firm for four different years (1995-98). This single-curve collapse of the price-impact function suggests that fluctuations from the supply-and-demand equilibrium for many financial assets, differing in economic sectors of activity and market capitalization, are governed by the same statistical rule.

The seco-iridoid pathway from Catharanthus roseus

PubMed Central

Miettinen, Karel; Dong, Lemeng; Navrot, Nicolas; Schneider, Thomas; Burlat, Vincent; Pollier, Jacob; Woittiez, Lotte; van der Krol, Sander; Lugan, Raphaël; Ilc, Tina; Verpoorte, Robert; Oksman-Caldentey, Kirsi-Marja; Martinoia, Enrico; Bouwmeester, Harro; Goossens, Alain; Memelink, Johan; Werck-Reichhart, Danièle

2014-01-01

The (seco)iridoids and their derivatives, the monoterpenoid indole alkaloids (MIAs), form two large families of plant-derived bioactive compounds with a wide spectrum of high-value pharmacological and insect-repellent activities. Vinblastine and vincristine, MIAs used as anticancer drugs, are produced by Catharanthus roseus in extremely low levels, leading to high market prices and poor availability. Their biotechnological production is hampered by the fragmentary knowledge of their biosynthesis. Here we report the discovery of the last four missing steps of the (seco)iridoid biosynthesis pathway. Expression of the eight genes encoding this pathway, together with two genes boosting precursor formation and two downstream alkaloid biosynthesis genes, in an alternative plant host, allows the heterologous production of the complex MIA strictosidine. This confirms the functionality of all enzymes of the pathway and highlights their utility for synthetic biology programmes towards a sustainable biotechnological production of valuable (seco)iridoids and alkaloids with pharmaceutical and agricultural applications. PMID:24710322

A petroleum discovery-rate forecast revisited-The problem of field growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, L.J.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.

1992-01-01

A forecast of the future rates of discovery of crude oil and natural gas for the 123,027-km2 Miocene/Pliocene trend in the Gulf of Mexico was made in 1980. This forecast was evaluated in 1988 by comparing two sets of data: (1) the actual versus the forecasted number of fields discovered, and (2) the actual versus the forecasted volumes of crude oil and natural gas discovered with the drilling of 1,820 wildcat wells along the trend between January 1, 1977, and December 31, 1985. The forecast specified that this level of drilling would result in the discovery of 217 fields containing 1.78 billion barrels of oil equivalent; however, 238 fields containing 3.57 billion barrels of oil equivalent were actually discovered. This underestimation is attributed to biases introduced by field growth and, to a lesser degree, the artificially low, pre-1970's price of natural gas that prevented many smaller gas fields from being brought into production at the time of their discovery; most of these fields contained less than 50 billion cubic feet of producible natural gas. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

75 FR 42390 - Orders Finding That the PJM WH Real Time Peak Contract and PJM WH Real Time Off-Peak Contract...

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2010-07-21

... commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity Exchange Act (``CEA'' or the ``Act... with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') are traded--and treating ECMs in that category...

75 FR 42380 - Orders Finding That the SP-15 Financial Day-Ahead LMP Peak Contract and SP-15 Financial Day-Ahead...

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2010-07-21

...Exchange, Inc. (``ICE''), an exempt commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity... with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') are traded--and treating ECMs in that category...

75 FR 42399 - Orders Finding That the PJM WH Real Time Peak Daily Contract, PJM WH Real Time Off-Peak Daily...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-21

...Exchange, Inc. (``ICE''), an exempt commercial market (``ECM'') under sections 2(h)(3)-(5) of the Commodity... regulatory authority with respect to ECMs by creating, in section 2(h)(7) of the CEA, a new regulatory category--ECMs on which significant price discovery contracts (``SPDCs'') are traded--and treating ECMs in...

An Analysis of Cost Analysis Methods Used during Contract Evaluation and Source Selection in Government Contracting.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

optimal value can be stated as, Marginal Productivity of Marginal Productivity of Good A Good B " Price of Good A Price of Good B This...contractor proposed production costs could be used. _11 i4 W Vi..:. II. CONTRACT PROPOSAL EVALUATION A. PRICE ANALYSIS Price analysis, in its broadest sense...enters the market with a supply function represented by line S2, then the new price will be reestablished at price OP2 and quantity OQ2. Price

Pricing foreign equity option with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qi; Xu, Weidong

2015-11-01

In this paper we propose a general foreign equity option pricing framework that unifies the vast foreign equity option pricing literature and incorporates the stochastic volatility into foreign equity option pricing. Under our framework, the time-changed Lévy processes are used to model the underlying assets price of foreign equity option and the closed form pricing formula is obtained through the use of characteristic function methodology. Numerical tests indicate that stochastic volatility has a dramatic effect on the foreign equity option prices.

Forecasting Electricity Prices in an Optimization Hydrothermal Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matías, J. M.; Bayón, L.; Suárez, P.; Argüelles, A.; Taboada, J.

2007-12-01

This paper presents an economic dispatch algorithm in a hydrothermal system within the framework of a competitive and deregulated electricity market. The optimization problem of one firm is described, whose objective function can be defined as its profit maximization. Since next-day price forecasting is an aspect crucial, this paper proposes an efficient yet highly accurate next-day price new forecasting method using a functional time series approach trying to exploit the daily seasonal structure of the series of prices. For the optimization problem, an optimal control technique is applied and Pontryagin's theorem is employed.

The influences of delay time on the stability of a market model with stochastic volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-02-01

The effects of the delay time on the stability of a market model are investigated, by using a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity and cross-correlated noise sources. These results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time τo which maximally enhances the stability of the stock price under strong demand elasticity of stock price, and maximally reduces the stability of the stock price under weak demand elasticity of stock price; (ii) The cross correlation coefficient of noises and the delay time play an opposite role on the stability for the case of the delay time <τo and the same role for the case of the delay time >τo. Moreover, the probability density function of the escape time of stock price returns, the probability density function of the returns and the correlation function of the returns are compared with other literatures.

Technologies that enable congestion pricing : a primer

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-10-01

This volume explores transportation technologies that enable congestion pricing. This document considers the following: the functional processes for tolling and congestion pricing; what technologies there are to consider; how the technologies are app...

Kenya Country Analysis Brief

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

Kenya currently does not produce any hydrocarbons, although the country has the potential to become an oil producer most likely after 2020. Over the past few years, several commercial oil discoveries have been made in Kenya, but the country faces obstacles that have caused production delays. Negotiations over a joint export pipeline route with its neighbor Uganda is in flux, while sustained low oil prices have slowed down exploration drilling activity in Kenya.

Quantifying stock-price response to demand fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plerou, Vasiliki; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Gabaix, Xavier; Stanley, H. Eugene

2002-08-01

We empirically address the question of how stock prices respond to changes in demand. We quantify the relations between price change G over a time interval Δt and two different measures of demand fluctuations: (a) Φ, defined as the difference between the number of buyer-initiated and seller-initiated trades, and (b) Ω, defined as the difference in number of shares traded in buyer- and seller-initiated trades. We find that the conditional expectation functions of price change for a given Φ or Ω, Φ and Ω (``market impact function''), display concave functional forms that seem universal for all stocks. For small Ω, we find a power-law behavior Ω~Ω1/8 with δ depending on Δt (δ~3 for Δt=5 min, δ~3/2 for Δt=15 min and δ~1 for large Δt). We find that large price fluctuations occur when demand is very small-a fact that is reminiscent of large fluctuations that occur at critical points in spin systems, where the divergent nature of the response function leads to large fluctuations.

Feynman path integral application on deriving black-scholes diffusion equation for european option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, Briandhika; Purqon, Acep

2016-08-01

Path Integral is a method to transform a function from its initial condition to final condition through multiplying its initial condition with the transition probability function, known as propagator. At the early development, several studies focused to apply this method for solving problems only in Quantum Mechanics. Nevertheless, Path Integral could also apply to other subjects with some modifications in the propagator function. In this study, we investigate the application of Path Integral method in financial derivatives, stock options. Black-Scholes Model (Nobel 1997) was a beginning anchor in Option Pricing study. Though this model did not successfully predict option price perfectly, especially because its sensitivity for the major changing on market, Black-Scholes Model still is a legitimate equation in pricing an option. The derivation of Black-Scholes has a high difficulty level because it is a stochastic partial differential equation. Black-Scholes equation has a similar principle with Path Integral, where in Black-Scholes the share's initial price is transformed to its final price. The Black-Scholes propagator function then derived by introducing a modified Lagrange based on Black-Scholes equation. Furthermore, we study the correlation between path integral analytical solution and Monte-Carlo numeric solution to find the similarity between this two methods.

A Toolbox for Teaching Price Comparison to Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weng, Pei-Lin; Bouck, Emily C.

2017-01-01

Price comparison is a functional mathematics skill involving purchasing, use of money, and budgeting, with the goal of selecting the best deal based on a person's financial resources (Browder, Spooner, & Trela, 2011). The operational definition of "price comparison" is to compare the magnitudes of the price numbers and then select…

Market Distortion and the Tuition Pricing Mechanism of Higher Education in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Wei; Wu, Haiquan

2008-01-01

Higher education in the market economy is inevitable affected by the higher education market. The tuition of higher education in china had become the personal price performance of higher education in certain degrees and exerts some certain functions of price mechanism. Because the higher education market distortion that tuition pricing cannot…

Times are taxing for UK companies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steven, R.R.

1982-06-20

Despite excellent prospects for new petroleum discoveries in the United Kingdom sector of the North Sea, a drop of oil prices and taxation has caused a slow down in development activities. Gas exploration is beginning to attract attention because of higher prices and a new bill which allows oil companies to sell gas directly to industry. A site licensing project by the government is expected to boost exploration. Recent exploration in the Norwegian sector has confirmed sufficient reserves to maintain current production levels for the next century. Reserves of natural gas were also appraised, particularly in the Sleipner area. Amore » gas-gathering pipeline system has been planned for dry and wet gases. Oil production has declined since 1980, but with new platforms, production is expected to increase. (JBF)« less

Interactive Model Centric Systems Engineering (IMCSE) Phase 4

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

traditional deep‐sea cargo ships, are designed to provide special operational services typically  related  to  the  offshore  oil   and  gas  industry...OCV), to mention a few. A recent period of high  oil  prices and deep sea petroleum discoveries  has  spurred  the development of offshore  oil   and...their  price  competitiveness.  Additionally,  the  Deepwater Horizon  oil  spill in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico has changed some of the focus for the

Empirical microeconomics action functionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Du, Xin; Tanputraman, Winson

2015-06-01

A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is modeled by an action functional-and the focus of this paper is to empirically determine the action functionals for different commodities. The correlation functions of the model are defined using a Feynman path integral. The model is calibrated using the unequal time correlation of the market commodity prices as well as their cubic and quartic moments using a perturbation expansion. The consistency of the perturbation expansion is verified by a numerical evaluation of the path integral. Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are studied and their market behavior is described by the model to an accuracy of over 90% using only six parameters. The paper empirically establishes the existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (2013).

Computational functional genomics-based approaches in analgesic drug discovery and repurposing.

PubMed

Lippmann, Catharina; Kringel, Dario; Ultsch, Alfred; Lötsch, Jörn

2018-06-01

Persistent pain is a major healthcare problem affecting a fifth of adults worldwide with still limited treatment options. The search for new analgesics increasingly includes the novel research area of functional genomics, which combines data derived from various processes related to DNA sequence, gene expression or protein function and uses advanced methods of data mining and knowledge discovery with the goal of understanding the relationship between the genome and the phenotype. Its use in drug discovery and repurposing for analgesic indications has so far been performed using knowledge discovery in gene function and drug target-related databases; next-generation sequencing; and functional proteomics-based approaches. Here, we discuss recent efforts in functional genomics-based approaches to analgesic drug discovery and repurposing and highlight the potential of computational functional genomics in this field including a demonstration of the workflow using a novel R library 'dbtORA'.

Adam Smith's invisible hand is unstable: physics and dynamics reasoning applied to economic theorizing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2002-11-01

Neo-classical economic theory is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Neo-classical economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics, however, a utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrability. Price as a function of demand does not exist and all equilibria are unstable. Qualitatively, and empirically, the neo-classical prediction of price as a function of demand describes neither consumer nor trader demand. We also discuss five inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct, and then explain the fallacy in the economists’ notion of ‘temporary price equilibria’.

Accelerating the discovery of materials for clean energy in the era of smart automation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, Daniel P.; Roch, Loïc M.; Saikin, Semion K.; Kreisbeck, Christoph; Sheberla, Dennis; Montoya, Joseph H.; Dwaraknath, Shyam; Aykol, Muratahan; Ortiz, Carlos; Tribukait, Hermann; Amador-Bedolla, Carlos; Brabec, Christoph J.; Maruyama, Benji; Persson, Kristin A.; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2018-05-01

The discovery and development of novel materials in the field of energy are essential to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. Bringing recent technological innovations in automation, robotics and computer science together with current approaches in chemistry, materials synthesis and characterization will act as a catalyst for revolutionizing traditional research and development in both industry and academia. This Perspective provides a vision for an integrated artificial intelligence approach towards autonomous materials discovery, which, in our opinion, will emerge within the next 5 to 10 years. The approach we discuss requires the integration of the following tools, which have already seen substantial development to date: high-throughput virtual screening, automated synthesis planning, automated laboratories and machine learning algorithms. In addition to reducing the time to deployment of new materials by an order of magnitude, this integrated approach is expected to lower the cost associated with the initial discovery. Thus, the price of the final products (for example, solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles) will also decrease. This in turn will enable industries and governments to meet more ambitious targets in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a faster pace.

Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

2017-07-01

During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E

2016-01-13

A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters. © 2015 The Author(s).

Function-driven discovery of disease genes in zebrafish using an integrated genomics big data resource.

PubMed

Shim, Hongseok; Kim, Ji Hyun; Kim, Chan Yeong; Hwang, Sohyun; Kim, Hyojin; Yang, Sunmo; Lee, Ji Eun; Lee, Insuk

2016-11-16

Whole exome sequencing (WES) accelerates disease gene discovery using rare genetic variants, but further statistical and functional evidence is required to avoid false-discovery. To complement variant-driven disease gene discovery, here we present function-driven disease gene discovery in zebrafish (Danio rerio), a promising human disease model owing to its high anatomical and genomic similarity to humans. To facilitate zebrafish-based function-driven disease gene discovery, we developed a genome-scale co-functional network of zebrafish genes, DanioNet (www.inetbio.org/danionet), which was constructed by Bayesian integration of genomics big data. Rigorous statistical assessment confirmed the high prediction capacity of DanioNet for a wide variety of human diseases. To demonstrate the feasibility of the function-driven disease gene discovery using DanioNet, we predicted genes for ciliopathies and performed experimental validation for eight candidate genes. We also validated the existence of heterozygous rare variants in the candidate genes of individuals with ciliopathies yet not in controls derived from the UK10K consortium, suggesting that these variants are potentially involved in enhancing the risk of ciliopathies. These results showed that an integrated genomics big data for a model animal of diseases can expand our opportunity for harnessing WES data in disease gene discovery. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Three predictions of the economic concept of unit price in a choice context.

PubMed

Madden, G J; Bickel, W K; Jacobs, E A

2000-01-01

Economic theory makes three predictions about consumption and response output in a choice situation: (a) When plotted on logarithmic coordinates, total consumption (i.e., summed across concurrent sources of reinforcement) should be a positively decelerating function, and total response output should be a bitonic function of unit price increases; (b) total consumption and response output should be determined by the value of the unit price ratio, independent of its cost and benefit components; and (c) when a reinforcer is available at the same unit price across all sources of reinforcement, consumption should be equal between these sources. These predictions were assessed in human cigarette smokers who earned cigarette puffs in a two-choice situation at a range of unit prices. In some sessions, smokers chose between different amounts of puffs, both available at identical unit prices. Individual subjects' data supported the first two predictions but failed to support the third. Instead, at low unit prices, the relatively larger reinforcer (and larger response requirement) was preferred, whereas at high unit prices, the smaller reinforcer (and smaller response requirement) was preferred. An expansion of unit price is proposed in which handling costs and the discounted value of reinforcers available according to ratio schedules are incorporated.

Medical care price indexes: theory, construction & empirical analysis of the US series 1927-1990.

PubMed

Getzen, T E

1992-01-01

The historical development of price indexes as wage adjustment mechanisms is reviewed, as is the theory of aggregation and methods for dealing with quality and technological change. The construction of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Medical Care Price Index (MCPI) is detailed. ARIMA analysis of the MCPI for the period 1927-1990 indicates that; (i) the MCPI is largely a damped and delayed function of the CPI, with an average lag of 8 months; (ii) medical care prices rose 2-4 percent faster than the all-items CPI since 1950, but not for 1927-1950; (iii) health expenditures are affected primarily by the general CPI, with little independent effect of specifically medical prices. The MCPI is a reliable measure of changes in consumer prices with strong construct validity. However, it was not designed for use as a deflator of medical expenditures, and is misleading when erroneously employed in that unintended role. The price/quantity duality and linear expenditure function which form the basis of Laspeyres price indexes are not applicable to nonconcatenable goods such as insurance or medical care. In these complex transactions, quality dominates quantity, fixed prices are replaced by reimbursement and professional judgement, and the assumption of additive separability required to use the price index as a deflator of health expenditures is not valid.

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.

1983-01-01

This report takes a major step toward developing a fruitful approach to empirical analysis of resource supply. It is the first empirical application of resource theory that has successfully integrated the effects of depletion of nonrenewable resources with the effects of uncertainty about future costs and prices on supply behavior. Thus, the model is a major improvement over traditional engineering-optimization models that assume complete certainty, and over traditional econometrics models that are only implicitly related to the theory of resource supply. The model is used to test hypotheses about interdependence of oil and natural gas discoveries, depletion, ultimate recovery, andmore » the role of price expectations. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using exhaustible resource theory in the development of empirically testable models. 19 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

Three Essays in the Public Economics of Offshore Hydrocarbon Investment and Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kearney, Owen P.

Offshore sources, in both shallow and deep waters, are increasingly important contributors to global oil and natural gas production. As both resource owner and taxing authority, national governments play an important role in the production of these offshore hydrocarbons. How the policy choices of these governments affect firm behavior, however, is not necessarily well understood. This dissertation contributes to our knowledge of how public policy influences offshore hydrocarbon investment and production. In the first essay, I estimate the investment responses of hydrocarbon producers to the suspension of the royalty, a type of production tax levied on production from federal lands. I find that the potential for a royalty payments waiver: (1) increases the probability that an individual tract is acquired by an average of 193% (a mean increase of 5.6 percentage points); (2) decreases the probability that a lease is ever drilled during its observed lease term by an average of 14.5% (a mean decrease of 1.3 percentage points); and (3) increases the expected number of explored leases by 150%. The introduction of DWRRA also increases the average winning bid per lease by 60%. These estimates quantify the magnitudes of the discouraging effects of production taxation on oil and natural gas investment. In the second essay, I quantify the implied value of information spillovers in oil and natural gas exploration using an event study design. I find that 25 trading days after a discovery, firms that own leases adjacent to the discovery lease (but not the discovery lease, itself) realize an average abnormal return translating to 315 million in market capitalization. This effect is quantitatively large compared to costs for drilling an exploratory well. In the final essay, I measure how oil price affects water injection, a method for prolonging the productive lifetime of oil fields. I find that a 1 rise in price increases the water injected into the well's reservoir by approximately 650 to 950 barrels, equalling 7.5 to 9.5% of the mean monthly injection volume (depending on the sample chosen). Equating the estimated price effect with a potential tax effect, this finding has implications for how the government levies a royalty on mature oil fields for which operators invest in pressure maintenance.

Determining optimal selling price and lot size with process reliability and partial backlogging considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsieh, Tsu-Pang; Cheng, Mei-Chuan; Dye, Chung-Yuan; Ouyang, Liang-Yuh

2011-01-01

In this article, we extend the classical economic production quantity (EPQ) model by proposing imperfect production processes and quality-dependent unit production cost. The demand rate is described by any convex decreasing function of the selling price. In addition, we allow for shortages and a time-proportional backlogging rate. For any given selling price, we first prove that the optimal production schedule not only exists but also is unique. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the production schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and production schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and conclude this article with suggestions for possible future research.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

2007-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

2011-01-01

In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

Cost, Price and Public Policy: Peering into the Higher Education Black Box. New Agenda Series[TM], Volume 1, Number 3.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stringer, William L.; Cunningham, Alisa F.

This report contains a conceptual framework for analyzing costs and prices by evaluating the higher education production function and the determinants of both prices and costs. The framework can be used to strengthen understanding of costs and prices within individual institutions and to inform macro level investments at state and national levels.…

The Conference Proceedings of the 1999 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society. Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Anming (Editor); Bowen Brent D. (Editor)

1999-01-01

In this paper, we develop a model with which allows us to measure not only the changes in equilibrium outcomes and welfare consequences of liberalizing a bilateral air transport agreement, but also the distribution of the gains and losses to carriers and consumers of each bilateral country and those of the third foreign countries. Our model also allows to measure the effects of changes in a bilateral agreement on the amount of traffic diversion between the direct bilateral routes and the indirect routes via a third country. We also provide an extension of our model to a case of oligopoly market outcome (Coumot Nash equilibrium). In our model, quality aspects are treated in the framework of hedonic price theory by specifying the quality-adjusted price (quantity) as a multiplication of the observed price (quantity) by the reciprocal quality index function (the quality index function). Numerical simulations were conducted to measure the effects of changing the following major policy levers in a bilateral air transport agreement: 1) Removing price regulation while retaining frequency and entry restrictions; 2) Removing price and entry regulation while retaining frequency restrictions; 3) Removing frequency regulations while retaining price and entry regulations; 4) Removing frequency and entry regulations while retaining price regulation; 5) Removing price and frequency regulations while retaining entry restriction; and 6) Removing all price, frequency and entry regulations (de facto, open skies).

Marketing and psychophysics: cornflakes and Stevens' power function.

PubMed

Clayson, D E

1994-04-01

Although major firms do not publish their pricing and packaging strategies, an analysis of 83 pairs of boxes of breakfast cereals using Stevens' Law showed that firms price their products on the perception of size rather than by actual size. By contrast, laundry detergents are priced by actual weight and volume.

Price percolation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanai, Yasuhiro; Abe, Keiji; Seki, Yoichi

2015-06-01

We propose a price percolation model to reproduce the price distribution of components used in industrial finished goods. The intent is to show, using the price percolation model and a component category as an example, that percolation behaviors, which exist in the matter system, the ecosystem, and human society, also exist in abstract, random phenomena satisfying the power law. First, we discretize the total potential demand for a component category, considering it a random field. Second, we assume that the discretized potential demand corresponding to a function of a finished good turns into actual demand if the difficulty of function realization is less than the maximum difficulty of the realization. The simulations using this model suggest that changes in a component category's price distribution are due to changes in the total potential demand corresponding to the lattice size and the maximum difficulty of realization, which is an occupation probability. The results are verified using electronic components' sales data.

A cost-benefit analysis of demand for food.

PubMed Central

Hursh, S R; Raslear, T G; Shurtleff, D; Bauman, R; Simmons, L

1988-01-01

Laboratory studies of consumer demand theory require assumptions regarding the definition of price in the absence of a medium of exchange (money). In this study we test the proposition that the fundamental dimension of price is a cost-benefit ratio expressed as the effort expended per unit of food value consumed. Using rats as subjects, we tested the generality of this "unit price" concept by varying four dimensions of price: fixed-ratio schedule, number of food pellets per fixed-ratio completion, probability of reinforcement, and response lever weight or effort. Two levels of the last three factors were combined in a 2 x 2 x 2 design giving eight groups. Each group was studied under a series of six FR schedules. Using the nominal values of all factors to determine unit price, we found that grams of food consumed plotted as a function of unit price followed a single demand curve. Similarly, total work output (responses x effort) conformed to a single function when plotted in terms of unit price. These observations provided a template for interpreting the effects of biological factors, such as brain lesions or drugs, that might alter the cost-benefit ratio. PMID:3209958

Price elasticity reconsidered: Panel estimation of an agricultural water demand function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoengold, Karina; Sunding, David L.; Moreno, Georgina

2006-09-01

Using panel data from a period of water rate reform, this paper estimates the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Price elasticity is decomposed into the direct effect of water management and the indirect effect of water price on choice of output and irrigation technology. The model is estimated using an instrumental variables strategy to account for the endogeneity of technology and output choices in the water demand equation. Estimation results indicate that the price elasticity of agricultural water demand is -0.79, which is greater than that found in previous studies.

A black box optimization approach to parameter estimation in a model for long/short term variations dynamics of commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Santis, Alberto; Dellepiane, Umberto; Lucidi, Stefano

2012-11-01

In this paper we investigate the estimation problem for a model of the commodity prices. This model is a stochastic state space dynamical model and the problem unknowns are the state variables and the system parameters. Data are represented by the commodity spot prices, very seldom time series of Futures contracts are available for free. Both the system joint likelihood function (state variables and parameters) and the system marginal likelihood (the state variables are eliminated) function are addressed.

Kernel-Correlated Levy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bo Lijun; Wang Yongjin; Yang Xuewei, E-mail: xwyangnk@yahoo.com.cn

2013-08-01

We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Levy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Levy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure.

Residential water demand with endogenous pricing: The Canadian Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynaud, Arnaud; Renzetti, Steven; Villeneuve, Michel

2005-11-01

In this paper, we show that the rate structure endogeneity may result in a misspecification of the residential water demand function. We propose to solve this endogeneity problem by estimating a probabilistic model describing how water rates are chosen by local communities. This model is estimated on a sample of Canadian local communities. We first show that the pricing structure choice reflects efficiency considerations, equity concerns, and, in some cases, a strategy of price discrimination across consumers by Canadian communities. Hence estimating the residential water demand without taking into account the pricing structures' endogeneity leads to a biased estimation of price and income elasticities. We also demonstrate that the pricing structure per se plays a significant role in influencing price responsiveness of Canadian residential consumers.

Hot topics in alkaline exchange membrane fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serov, Alexey; Zenyuk, Iryna V.; Arges, Christopher G.; Chatenet, Marian

2018-01-01

The tremendous progress from the first discovery of fuel cell principles by Sir William Robert Grove in 1839 [1] and independent observation of electricity generated in electrochemical reaction of hydrogen and air by a Swiss scientist Christian F. Shoenbein [2] to the recent breakthroughs in the fuel cell field resulted in the appearance of this clean energy technology around us. Indeed, fuel cell technology undoubtedly has entered into our life with the first introduction of Toyota Mirai Fuel Cell Vehicle (FCV) by Toyota Motor Co. in December of 2014 [3,4]. This FCV is commercially available and can be purchased in several countries. However, its sticker price of 57,500 substantially limits the number of customers that can purchase it. There are numerous factors that contribute to the high cost of fuel cell stack, however the price of platinum and platinum alloys is the main contributor [5].

Estimation of option-implied risk-neutral into real-world density by using calibration function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, Hafizah; Abdullah, Mimi Hafizah

2017-04-01

Option prices contain crucial information that can be used as a reflection of future development of an underlying assets' price. The main objective of this study is to extract the risk-neutral density (RND) and the risk-world density (RWD) of option prices. A volatility function technique is applied by using a fourth order polynomial interpolation to obtain the RNDs. Then, a calibration function is used to convert the RNDs into RWDs. There are two types of calibration function which are parametric and non-parametric calibrations. The density is extracted from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index options with a one month constant maturity from January 2009 until December 2015. The performance of RNDs and RWDs extracted are evaluated by using a density forecasting test. This study found out that the RWDs obtain can provide an accurate information regarding the price of the underlying asset in future compared to that of the RNDs. In addition, empirical evidence suggests that RWDs from a non-parametric calibration has a better accuracy than other densities.

77 FR 63903 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX BX, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-17

... a fully automated, price/time priority execution system built on the core functionality of the... orders in price/time priority without regard to the status of the entities that are entering orders. The BX Options market closely resembles NOM, including, most prominently, by offering true price/time...

The Supply of Public School Quality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brasington, D. M.

2003-01-01

Derives price of unit of public-school quality from series of housing-market hedonic estimates, in which house price is regressed as a function of school quality. Inserts implicit price in an estimation of public-school supply. The 0.14 supply elasticity suggests that change in demand will not spur homeowners to increase the quantity of quality…

Reference Pricing with Endogenous or Exogenous Payment Limits: Impacts on Insurer and Consumer Spending.

PubMed

Brown, Timothy T; Robinson, James C

2016-06-01

Reference pricing (RP) theories predict different outcomes when reference prices are fixed (exogenous) versus being a function of market prices (MPs) (endogenous). Exogenous RP results in MPs at both high-price and low-price firms converging towards the reference price from above and below, respectively. Endogenous RP results in MPs at both high-price and low-price firms decreasing, with low-price firms acting strategically to decrease the reference price in order to gain market share. We extend these models to a hospital context focusing on insurer and consumer payments. Under exogenous RP, insurer and consumer payments to low-price hospitals increase, and insurer payments to high-price hospitals decrease, but predictions regarding consumer payments are ambiguous for high-price hospitals. Under endogenous RP, insurer payments to high-price and low-price hospitals decrease, and consumer payments to low-price hospitals decrease, but predictions regarding consumer payments are ambiguous for high-price hospitals. We test these predictions with difference-in-differences specifications using 2008-2013 data on patients undergoing joint replacement. For 2 years following RP implementation, insurer payments to high-price and low-price hospitals moved downward, consistent with endogenous RP. However, when the reference price was not reset to account for changes in MPs, insurer payments to low-price hospitals reverted to pre-implementation levels, consistent with exogenous RP. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Pharmaceutical pricing in Japan: market evidence for rheumatoid arthritis treatment.

PubMed

Mahlich, Jörg; Kamae, Isao; Sruamsiri, Rosarin

2018-06-01

Drug price setting is one of the key challenges faced by the Japanese health care system. This study aims to identify the determinants of drug price in Japan using the example of the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) treatment market. In order to compare prices across different products, we calculated prices per defined daily dose using WHO methodology. Price determinants were calculated both at launch and over time using IMS quarterly data on medicines approved for RA treatment in Japan from 2012 to 2015. Pharmaceutical pricing was modeled as a function of clinical and economic variables using regression analysis. For prices at the launch we found that differences in efficacy are not reflected in price differentials. We also report that the number of products within a molecule class had a negative effect on prices while originator drugs maintained higher prices. Although the existing pricing rules in Japan are very comprehensive they do not necessarily capture differences in product characteristics. The findings here support the notion that competitive forces are weak in highly regulated markets such as Japan.

Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Achi, Godswill U.

2014-10-01

The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing9 where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula using the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φx(u) of Xt we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.

Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.

PubMed

Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P

2012-12-01

Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Airport and Airway Costs: Allocation and Recovery in the 1980’s.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-02-01

1997 [8]. 3*X S.% Volume 4, FAA Cost Recovery Options [9). Volume 5, Econometric Cost Functions for FAA Cost Allocation Model [10]. Volume 6, Users...and relative price elasticities ( Ramsey pricing technique). User fees based on the Ramsey pricing tend to be less burdensome on users and minimize...full discussion of the Ramsey pricing techniques is provided in Allocation of Federal Airport and Airway Costs for FY 1985 [6]. -12- In step 5

A decentralized mechanism for improving the functional robustness of distribution networks.

PubMed

Shi, Benyun; Liu, Jiming

2012-10-01

Most real-world distribution systems can be modeled as distribution networks, where a commodity can flow from source nodes to sink nodes through junction nodes. One of the fundamental characteristics of distribution networks is the functional robustness, which reflects the ability of maintaining its function in the face of internal or external disruptions. In view of the fact that most distribution networks do not have any centralized control mechanisms, we consider the problem of how to improve the functional robustness in a decentralized way. To achieve this goal, we study two important problems: 1) how to formally measure the functional robustness, and 2) how to improve the functional robustness of a network based on the local interaction of its nodes. First, we derive a utility function in terms of network entropy to characterize the functional robustness of a distribution network. Second, we propose a decentralized network pricing mechanism, where each node need only communicate with its distribution neighbors by sending a "price" signal to its upstream neighbors and receiving "price" signals from its downstream neighbors. By doing so, each node can determine its outflows by maximizing its own payoff function. Our mathematical analysis shows that the decentralized pricing mechanism can produce results equivalent to those of an ideal centralized maximization with complete information. Finally, to demonstrate the properties of our mechanism, we carry out a case study on the U.S. natural gas distribution network. The results validate the convergence and effectiveness of our mechanism when comparing it with an existing algorithm.

Competition and the Reference Pricing Scheme for pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Ghislandi, Simone

2011-12-01

By introducing n (>1) firms with infinite cross-price elasticity (i.e. generic drugs), we explore the effects of competition on the optimal pricing strategies under a Reference Pricing Scheme (RPS). A two-stage model repeated infinite number of times is presented. When stage 1 is competitive, the equilibrium in pure strategies exists and is efficient only if the reference price (R) does not depend on the price of the branded product. When generics collude, the way R is designed is crucial for both the stability of the cartel among generics and the collusive prices in equilibrium. An optimally designed RPS must set R as a function only of the infinitely elastic side of the market and should provide the right incentives for competition. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

26 CFR 1.925(a)-1T - Temporary regulations; transfer pricing rules for FSCs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... section 482 method of section 925(a)(3). (Any further reference to a FSC in this section shall include a... economic functions—(i) Administrative pricing methods. The application of the administrative pricing... economic functions beyond those required by section 925(c). See paragraph (b)(2)(ii) of this section and...

Survey Available Computer Software for Automated Production Planning and Inventory Control, and Software and Hardware for Data Logging and Monitoring Shop Floor Activities

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-08-01

pricing and sales, order processing , and purchasing. The class of manufacturing planning functions include aggregate production planning, materials...level. I Depending on the application, each control level will have a number of functions associated with it. For instance, order processing , purchasing...include accounting, sales forecasting, product costing, pricing and sales, order processing , and purchasing. The class of manufacturing planning functions

Price dynamics and market power in an agent-based power exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cincotti, Silvano; Guerci, Eric; Raberto, Marco

2005-05-01

This paper presents an agent-based model of a power exchange. Supply of electric power is provided by competing generating companies, whereas demand is assumed to be inelastic with respect to price and is constant over time. The transmission network topology is assumed to be a fully connected graph and no transmission constraints are taken into account. The price formation process follows a common scheme for real power exchanges: a clearing house mechanism with uniform price, i.e., with price set equal across all matched buyer-seller pairs. A single class of generating companies is considered, characterized by linear cost function for each technology. Generating companies compete for the sale of electricity through repeated rounds of the uniform auction and determine their supply functions according to production costs. However, an individual reinforcement learning algorithm characterizes generating companies behaviors in order to attain the expected maximum possible profit in each auction round. The paper investigates how the market competitive equilibrium is affected by market microstructure and production costs.

Financial derivative pricing under probability operator via Esscher transfomation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achi, Godswill U., E-mail: achigods@yahoo.com

2014-10-24

The problem of pricing contingent claims has been extensively studied for non-Gaussian models, and in particular, Black- Scholes formula has been derived for the NIG asset pricing model. This approach was first developed in insurance pricing{sup 9} where the original distortion function was defined in terms of the normal distribution. This approach was later studied6 where they compared the standard Black-Scholes contingent pricing and distortion based contingent pricing. So, in this paper, we aim at using distortion operators by Cauchy distribution under a simple transformation to price contingent claim. We also show that we can recuperate the Black-Sholes formula usingmore » the distribution. Similarly, in a financial market in which the asset price represented by a stochastic differential equation with respect to Brownian Motion, the price mechanism based on characteristic Esscher measure can generate approximate arbitrage free financial derivative prices. The price representation derived involves probability Esscher measure and Esscher Martingale measure and under a new complex valued measure φ (u) evaluated at the characteristic exponents φ{sub x}(u) of X{sub t} we recuperate the Black-Scholes formula for financial derivative prices.« less

Discovery of innovative therapeutics: today's realities and tomorrow's vision. 1. Criticisms faced by the pharmaceutical industry.

PubMed

Abou-Gharbia, Magid; Childers, Wayne E

2013-07-25

The pharmaceutical industry is facing enormous challenges, including reduced efficiency, declining innovation, key patent expirations, fierce price competition from generics, high regulatory hurdles, and a tarnished image. There is a clear need for change in the paradigms designed to address these challenges. Pharma has responded by embarking on a range of initiatives. However, along the way the industry has accrued critics whose accusations have tainted its reputation. The first part of this two-part series will discuss the criticisms that have been leveled at the pharmaceutical industry and summarize the supporting data for and against these criticisms. The second installment will focus on the current challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry and Pharma's responses to address these challenges. It will describe the industry's changing perspective and new business models for coping with the recent loss of talent and declining clinical pipelines as well as present some examples of recent drug discovery successes.

Which functional unit to identify sustainable foods?

PubMed

Masset, Gabriel; Vieux, Florent; Darmon, Nicole

2015-09-01

In life-cycle assessment, the functional unit defines the unit for calculation of environmental indicators. The objective of the present study was to assess the influence of two functional units, 100 g and 100 kcal (420 kJ), on the associations between three dimensions for identifying sustainable foods, namely environmental impact (via greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE)), nutritional quality (using two distinct nutrient profiling systems) and price. GHGE and price data were collected for individual foods, and were each expressed per 100 g and per 100 kcal. Two nutrient profiling models, SAIN,LIM and UK Ofcom, were used to assess foods' nutritional quality. Spearman correlations were used to assess associations between variables. Sustainable foods were identified as those having more favourable values for all three dimensions. The French Individual and National Dietary Survey (INCA2), 2006-2007. Three hundred and seventy-three foods highly consumed in INCA2, covering 65 % of total energy intake of adult participants. When GHGE and price were expressed per 100 g, low-GHGE foods had a lower price and higher SAIN,LIM and Ofcom scores (r=0·59, -0·34 and -0·43, respectively), suggesting a compatibility between the three dimensions; 101 and 100 sustainable foods were identified with SAIN,LIM and Ofcom, respectively. When GHGE and price were expressed per 100 kcal, low-GHGE foods had a lower price but also lower SAIN,LIM and Ofcom scores (r=0·67, 0·51 and 0·47, respectively), suggesting that more environment-friendly foods were less expensive but also less healthy; thirty-four sustainable foods were identified with both SAIN,LIM and Ofcom. The choice of functional unit strongly influenced the compatibility between the sustainability dimensions and the identification of sustainable foods.

RNA interference for functional genomics and improvement of cotton (Gossypium species)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

RNA interference (RNAi), is a powerful new technology in the discovery of genetic sequence functions, and has become a valuable tool for functional genomics of cotton (Gossypium ssp.). The rapid adoption of RNAi has replaced previous antisense technology. RNAi has aided in the discovery of function ...

Analysing the Effect of Demand Uncertainty in Dynamic Pricing with EAs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shakya, Siddhartha; Oliveira, Fernando; Owusu, Gilbert

Dynamic pricing is a pricing strategy where a firm adjust the price for their products and services as a function of its perceived demand at different times. In this paper, we show how Evolutionary algorithms (EA) can be used to analyse the effect of demand uncertainty in dynamic pricing. The experiments are conducted in a range of dynamic pricing problems considering a number of different stochastic scenarios with a number of different EAs. The results are analysed, which suggest that higher demand fluctuation may not have adverse effect to the profit in comparison to the lower demand fluctuation, and that the reliability of EA for finding accurate policy could be higher when there is higher fluctuation then when there is lower fluctuation.

Game auction prices are not related to biodiversity contributions of southern African ungulates and large carnivores.

PubMed

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, Maria

2016-02-25

There is an urgent need for human societies to become environmentally sustainable. Because public policy is largely driven by economic processes, quantifications of the relationship between market prices and environmental values can provide important information for developing strategies towards sustainability. Wildlife in southern Africa is often privately owned and traded at game auctions to be utilized for commercial purposes mostly related to tourism. This market offers an interesting opportunity to evaluate how market prices relate to biologically meaningful species characteristics. In this market, prices were not correlated with species contributions to either phylogenetic or functional diversity, and species contributions to phylogenetic or functional diversity did not influence the trends in prices over time for the past 20 years. Since this economic market did not seem to appreciate evolutionary or ecologically relevant characteristics, we question if the game tourism market may contribute towards biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. We suggest that market prices in general may have limited values as guides for directing conservation and environmental management. We further suggest that there is a need to evaluate what humans value in biological organisms, and how potentially necessary shifts in such values can be instigated.

Game auction prices are not related to biodiversity contributions of southern African ungulates and large carnivores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, Maria

2016-02-01

There is an urgent need for human societies to become environmentally sustainable. Because public policy is largely driven by economic processes, quantifications of the relationship between market prices and environmental values can provide important information for developing strategies towards sustainability. Wildlife in southern Africa is often privately owned and traded at game auctions to be utilized for commercial purposes mostly related to tourism. This market offers an interesting opportunity to evaluate how market prices relate to biologically meaningful species characteristics. In this market, prices were not correlated with species contributions to either phylogenetic or functional diversity, and species contributions to phylogenetic or functional diversity did not influence the trends in prices over time for the past 20 years. Since this economic market did not seem to appreciate evolutionary or ecologically relevant characteristics, we question if the game tourism market may contribute towards biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. We suggest that market prices in general may have limited values as guides for directing conservation and environmental management. We further suggest that there is a need to evaluate what humans value in biological organisms, and how potentially necessary shifts in such values can be instigated.

Game auction prices are not related to biodiversity contributions of southern African ungulates and large carnivores

PubMed Central

Dalerum, Fredrik; Miranda, Maria

2016-01-01

There is an urgent need for human societies to become environmentally sustainable. Because public policy is largely driven by economic processes, quantifications of the relationship between market prices and environmental values can provide important information for developing strategies towards sustainability. Wildlife in southern Africa is often privately owned and traded at game auctions to be utilized for commercial purposes mostly related to tourism. This market offers an interesting opportunity to evaluate how market prices relate to biologically meaningful species characteristics. In this market, prices were not correlated with species contributions to either phylogenetic or functional diversity, and species contributions to phylogenetic or functional diversity did not influence the trends in prices over time for the past 20 years. Since this economic market did not seem to appreciate evolutionary or ecologically relevant characteristics, we question if the game tourism market may contribute towards biodiversity conservation in southern Africa. We suggest that market prices in general may have limited values as guides for directing conservation and environmental management. We further suggest that there is a need to evaluate what humans value in biological organisms, and how potentially necessary shifts in such values can be instigated. PMID:26911226

A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

Influence of market factors on the pricing of exchange traded metals in the medium term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bogdanov, S. V.; Shevelev, I. M.; Chernyi, S. A.

2017-06-01

On the basis of comparison of the influence of the stock exchange factors on the pricing of nonferrous metals for medium term with similar results for short term, it has been established that the main attention should be paid to the changes in the pricing environment on the metal market as a function of the prices of exchange traded metals. The situation on the market of energy carriers (hydrocarbons) and the European, American, and Asian stock exchanges can be based on parity and even significantly influence the variation of the metal prices. In the medium term, constructive development of metal trade should be reasonably promoted by changing the elasticity of supply with regard to prices for exchange traded metals and by applying the stock exchange factors that positively influence the pricing on commodity and stock markets.

On the entropy function in sociotechnical systems

PubMed Central

Montroll, Elliott W.

1981-01-01

The entropy function H = -Σpj log pj (pj being the probability of a system being in state j) and its continuum analogue H = ∫p(x) log p(x) dx are fundamental in Shannon's theory of information transfer in communication systems. It is here shown that the discrete form of H also appears naturally in single-lane traffic flow theory. In merchandising, goods flow from a whole-saler through a retailer to a customer. Certain features of the process may be deduced from price distribution functions derived from Sears Roebuck and Company catalogues. It is found that the dispersion in logarithm of catalogue prices of a given year has remained about constant, independently of the year, for over 75 years. From this it may be inferred that the continuum entropy function for the variable logarithm of price had inadvertently, through Sears Roebuck policies, been maximized for that firm subject to the observed dispersion. PMID:16593136

On the entropy function in sociotechnical systems.

PubMed

Montroll, E W

1981-12-01

The entropy function H = -Sigmap(j) log p(j) (p(j) being the probability of a system being in state j) and its continuum analogue H = integralp(x) log p(x) dx are fundamental in Shannon's theory of information transfer in communication systems. It is here shown that the discrete form of H also appears naturally in single-lane traffic flow theory. In merchandising, goods flow from a whole-saler through a retailer to a customer. Certain features of the process may be deduced from price distribution functions derived from Sears Roebuck and Company catalogues. It is found that the dispersion in logarithm of catalogue prices of a given year has remained about constant, independently of the year, for over 75 years. From this it may be inferred that the continuum entropy function for the variable logarithm of price had inadvertently, through Sears Roebuck policies, been maximized for that firm subject to the observed dispersion.

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace I: Substitutability as a Function of the Price of Conventional Cigarettes.

PubMed

Quisenberry, Amanda J; Koffarnus, Mikhail N; Hatz, Laura E; Epstein, Leonard H; Bickel, Warren K

2016-07-01

Behavioral economic studies of nicotine product consumption have traditionally examined substitution between two products and rarely examined substitution with more products. Increasing numbers of tobacco products available for commercial sale leads to more possible cross-product interactions, indicating a need to examine substitution in more complex arrangements that closely mirror the tobacco marketplace. The experimental tobacco marketplace (ETM) is an experimental online store that displays pictures, information, and prices for several tobacco products. Smokers were endowed with an account balance based on their weekly tobacco purchases. Participants then made potentially real purchases for seven (Experiment 1) or six (Experiment 2) tobacco/nicotine products under four price conditions for conventional cigarettes while prices for other products remained constant. Smokers returned 1 week later to report tobacco/nicotine use and return unused products for a refund. In Experiment 1 (n = 22), cigarette purchasing decreased as a function of price. Substitution was greatest for electronic cigarettes and cigarillos and significant for electronic cigarettes. Experiment 2 (n = 34) was a replication of Experiment 1, but with cigarillos unavailable in the ETM. In Experiment 2, cigarette purchases decreased as a function of price. Substitution was robust and significant for electronic cigarettes and Camel Snus. The ETM is a novel, practical assay that mimics the real-world marketplace, and functions as a simple research tool for both researchers and participants. Across the two experiments the product mix in the ETM altered which products functioned as substitutes suggesting complex interactions between purchasing and product availability. This article adds a novel method of collecting purchasing data that mimics real world purchasing to the existing literature. The ETM is a practical avenue by which to study both hypothetical and potentially real purchasing. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Price schedules coordination for electricity pool markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legbedji, Alexis Motto

2002-04-01

We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of augmented or nonlinear pricing, which is an example of the use of penalty functions in mathematical programming. Applications are drawn from mathematical programming problems of the form arising in electric power system scheduling under competition.

Demand side management in recycling and electricity retail pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazan, Osman

This dissertation addresses several problems from the recycling industry and electricity retail market. The first paper addresses a real-life scheduling problem faced by a national industrial recycling company. Based on their practices, a scheduling problem is defined, modeled, analyzed, and a solution is approximated efficiently. The recommended application is tested on the real-life data and randomly generated data. The scheduling improvements and the financial benefits are presented. The second problem is from electricity retail market. There are well-known patterns in daily usage in hours. These patterns change in shape and magnitude by seasons and days of the week. Generation costs are multiple times higher during the peak hours of the day. Yet most consumers purchase electricity at flat rates. This work explores analytic pricing tools to reduce peak load electricity demand for retailers. For that purpose, a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices is established based on two major components: unit generation costs and consumers' utility. Both are analyzed and estimated empirically in the third paper. A pricing model is introduced to maximize the electric retailer's profit. As a result, a closed-form expression for the optimal price vector is obtained. Possible scenarios are evaluated for consumers' utility distribution. For the general case, we provide a numerical solution methodology to obtain the optimal pricing scheme. The models recommended are tested under various scenarios that consider consumer segmentation and multiple pricing policies. The recommended model reduces the peak load significantly in most cases. Several utility companies offer hourly pricing to their customers. They determine prices using historical data of unit electricity cost over time. In this dissertation we develop a nonlinear model that determines optimal hourly prices with parameter estimation. The last paper includes a regression analysis of the unit generation cost function obtained from Independent Service Operators. A consumer experiment is established to replicate the peak load behavior. As a result, consumers' utility function is estimated and optimal retail electricity prices are computed.

Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

2017-10-01

As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

Model construction of “earning money by taking photos”

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jingmei

2018-03-01

In the era of information, with the increasingly developed network, “to earn money by taking photos” is a self-service model under the mobile Internet. The user downloads the APP, registers as a member of the APP, and then takes a task that needs to take photographs from the APP and earns the reward of the task on the APP. The article uses the task data and membership information data of an already completed project, including the member’s location and reputation value. On the basis of reasonable assumption, the data was processed with the MATLAB, SPSS and Excel software. This article mainly studied problems of the function relationship between the task performance, task position (GPS latitude and GPS longitude) and task price of users, analyzed the project’s task pricing rules and the reasons why the task is not completed, and applied multivariate regression function and GeoQ software to analyze the data, studied the task pricing rules, applied the chart method to solve the complex data, clear and easy to understand, and also reality simulation is applied to analyze why the tasks are not completed. Also, compared with the previous program, a new task pricing program is designed for the project to obtain the confidence level by means of the SPSS software, to estimate the reasonable range of the task pricing, predict and design a new pricing program on the reasonable price range.

The futility of utility: how market dynamics marginalize Adam Smith

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2000-10-01

Economic theorizing is based on the postulated, nonempiric notion of utility. Economists assume that prices, dynamics, and market equilibria are supposed to be derived from utility. The results are supposed to represent mathematically the stabilizing action of Adam Smith's invisible hand. In deterministic excess demand dynamics I show the following. A utility function generally does not exist mathematically due to nonintegrable dynamics when production/investment are accounted for, resolving Mirowski's thesis. Price as a function of demand does not exist mathematically either. All equilibria are unstable. I then explain how deterministic chaos can be distinguished from random noise at short times. In the generalization to liquid markets and finance theory described by stochastic excess demand dynamics, I also show the following. Market price distributions cannot be rescaled to describe price movements as ‘equilibrium’ fluctuations about a systematic drift in price. Utility maximization does not describe equilibrium. Maximization of the Gibbs entropy of the observed price distribution of an asset would describe equilibrium, if equilibrium could be achieved, but equilibrium does not describe real, liquid markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange). There are three inconsistent definitions of equilibrium used in economics and finance, only one of which is correct. Prices in unregulated free markets are unstable against both noise and rising or falling expectations: Adam Smith's stabilizing invisible hand does not exist, either in mathematical models of liquid market data, or in real market data.

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

2012-01-01

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

2018-01-01

An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

Improving Government’s Retirement Plan Investments by Using Mining Tools for Discovery of Price Patterns and Combining Methods of Fundamental and Technical Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-01

stock market such as bonds, funds, stocks, commodities, futures, options, foreign exchange ( Forex ). These assets can be domestically or...such as forex , futures, options, etc. E. SCOPE AND LIMITATIONS The scope of this research is separated into two independent parts. The first part...stock data from Yahoo.com for January 3, 2005 until May 9, 2008. • Keep the stock data in a custom database . • Develop the trading systems that will

The Impact of Biomass Feedstock Supply Variability on the Delivered Price to a Biorefinery in the Peace River Region of Alberta, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stephen, Jamie; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Bi, X.T.

2010-01-01

Agricultural residue feedstock availability in a given region can vary significantly over the 20 25 year lifetime of a biorefinery. Since delivered price of biomass feedstock to a biorefinery is related to the distance travelled and equipment optimization, and transportation distance increases as productivity decreases, productivity is a primary determinant of feedstock price. Using the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics (IBSAL) modeling environment and a standard round bale harvest and delivery scenario, harvest and delivery price were modelled for minimum, average, and maximum yields at four potential biorefinery sites in the Peace River region of Alberta, Canada. Biorefinery capacitiesmore » ranged from 50,000 to 500,000 tonnes per year. Delivery cost is a linear function of transportation distance and can be combined with a polynomial harvest function to create a generalized delivered cost function for agricultural residues. The range in delivered cost is substantial and is an important consideration for the operating costs of a biorefinery.« less

Price Strategies between a Dominant Retailer and Manufacturers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Hsun Jung; Mak, Hou Kit

2009-08-01

Supply chain-related game theoretical applications have been discussed for decades. This research accounts for the emergence of a dominant retailer, and the retailer Stackelberg pricing models of distribution channels. Research in the channel pricing game may use different definitions of pricing decision variables. In this research, we pay attentions to the retailer Stackelberg pricing game, and discuss the effects when choosing different decision variables. According the literature it was shown that the strategies between channel members depend critically on the form of the demand function. Two different demand forms—linear and non-linear—will be considered in our numerical example respectively. Our major finding is the outcomes are not relative to manufacturers' pricing decisions but to the retailer's pricing decision and choosing percentage margin as retailer's decision variable is the best strategy for the retailer but worst for manufacturers. The numerical results show that it is consistence between linear and non-linear demand form.

A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai

We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

A stochastic electricity market clearing formulation with consistent pricing properties

DOE PAGES

Zavala, Victor M.; Kim, Kibaek; Anitescu, Mihai; ...

2017-03-16

We argue that deterministic market clearing formulations introduce arbitrary distortions between day-ahead and expected real-time prices that bias economic incentives. We extend and analyze a previously proposed stochastic clearing formulation in which the social surplus function induces penalties between day-ahead and real-time quantities. We prove that the formulation yields price bounded price distortions, and we show that adding a similar penalty term to transmission flows and phase angles ensures boundedness throughout the network. We prove that when the price distortions are zero, day-ahead quantities equal a quantile of their real-time counterparts. The undesired effects of price distortions suggest that stochasticmore » settings provide significant benefits over deterministic ones that go beyond social surplus improvements. Finally, we propose additional metrics to evaluate these benefits.« less

Optimal pricing and lot-sizing for perishable inventory with price and time dependent ramp-type demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panda, S.; Saha, S.; Basu, M.

2013-01-01

Product perishability is an important aspect of inventory control. To minimise the effect of deterioration, retailers in supermarkets, departmental store managers, etc. always want higher inventory depletion rate. In this article, we propose a dynamic pre- and post-deterioration cumulative discount policy to enhance inventory depletion rate resulting low volume of deterioration cost, holding cost and hence higher profit. It is assumed that demand is a price and time dependent ramp-type function and the product starts to deteriorate after certain amount of time. Unlike the conventional inventory models with pricing strategies, which are restricted to a fixed number of price changes and to a fixed cycle length, we allow the number of price changes before as well as after the start of deterioration and the replenishment cycle length to be the decision variables. Before start of deterioration, discounts on unit selling price are provided cumulatively in successive pricing cycles. After the start of deterioration, discounts on reduced unit selling price are also provided in a cumulative way. A mathematical model is developed and the existence of the optimal solution is verified. A numerical example is presented, which indicates that under the cumulative effect of price discounting, dynamic pricing policy outperforms static pricing strategy. Sensitivity analysis of the model is carried out.

Generalized networking engineering: optimal pricing and routing in multiservice networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Debasis; Wang, Qiong

2002-07-01

One of the functions of network engineering is to allocate resources optimally to forecasted demand. We generalize the mechanism by incorporating price-demand relationships into the problem formulation, and optimizing pricing and routing jointly to maximize total revenue. We consider a network, with fixed topology and link bandwidths, that offers multiple services, such as voice and data, each having characteristic price elasticity of demand, and quality of service and policy requirements on routing. Prices, which depend on service type and origin-destination, determine demands, that are routed, subject to their constraints, so as to maximize revenue. We study the basic properties of the optimal solution and prove that link shadow costs provide the basis for both optimal prices and optimal routing policies. We investigate the impact of input parameters, such as link capacities and price elasticities, on prices, demand growth, and routing policies. Asymptotic analyses, in which network bandwidth is scaled to grow, give results that are noteworthy for their qualitative insights. Several numerical examples illustrate the analyses.

Can price get the monkey off our back? A meta-analysis of illicit drug demand.

PubMed

Gallet, Craig A

2014-01-01

Because of the increased availability of price data over the past 15 years, several studies have estimated the demand for illicit drugs, providing 462 estimates of the price elasticity. Results from estimating several meta-regressions reveal that these price elasticity estimates are influenced by a number of study characteristics. For instance, the price elasticity differs across drugs, with its absolute value being smallest for marijuana, compared with cocaine and heroin. Furthermore, price elasticity estimates are sensitive to whether demand is modeled in the short-run or the long-run, measures of quantity and price, whether or not alcohol and other illicit drugs are included in the specification of demand, and the location of demand. However, a number of other factors, including the functional form of demand, several specification issues, the type of data and method used to estimate demand, and the quality of the publication outlet, have less influence on the price elasticity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What is a new drug worth? An innovative model for performance-based pricing.

PubMed

Dranitsaris, G; Dorward, K; Owens, R C; Schipper, H

2015-05-01

This article focuses on a novel method to derive prices for new pharmaceuticals by making price a function of drug performance. We briefly review current models for determining price for a new product and discuss alternatives that have historically been favoured by various funding bodies. The progressive approach to drug pricing, proposed herein, may better address the views and concerns of multiple stakeholders in a developed healthcare system by acknowledging and incorporating input from disparate parties via comprehensive and successive negotiation stages. In proposing a valid construct for performance-based pricing, the following model seeks to achieve several crucial objectives: earlier and wider access to new treatments; improved transparency in drug pricing; multi-stakeholder involvement through phased pricing negotiations; recognition of innovative product performance and latent changes in value; an earlier and more predictable return for developers without sacrificing total return on investment (ROI); more involved and informed risk sharing by the end-user. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Economics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Tables covering the selling price of hydrogen as a function of each process temperature studied are presented. Estimated selling price, based on capital costs and operating and maintenance costs, is included. In all cases, no credit was given for the methane component of hydrogen.

Pricing policy for declining demand using item preservation technology.

PubMed

Khedlekar, Uttam Kumar; Shukla, Diwakar; Namdeo, Anubhav

2016-01-01

We have designed an inventory model for seasonal products in which deterioration can be controlled by item preservation technology investment. Demand for the product is considered price sensitive and decreases linearly. This study has shown that the profit is a concave function of optimal selling price, replenishment time and preservation cost parameter. We simultaneously determined the optimal selling price of the product, the replenishment cycle and the cost of item preservation technology. Additionally, this study has shown that there exists an optimal selling price and optimal preservation investment to maximize the profit for every business set-up. Finally, the model is illustrated by numerical examples and sensitive analysis of the optimal solution with respect to major parameters.

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly States for price manipulation detection.

PubMed

Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, Thomas Martin

2015-02-01

Price manipulation refers to the activities of those traders who use carefully designed trading behaviors to manually push up or down the underlying equity prices for making profits. With increasing volumes and frequency of trading, price manipulation can be extremely damaging to the proper functioning and integrity of capital markets. The existing literature focuses on either empirical studies of market abuse cases or analysis of particular manipulation types based on certain assumptions. Effective approaches for analyzing and detecting price manipulation in real time are yet to be developed. This paper proposes a novel approach, called adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly states (AHMMAS) for modeling and detecting price manipulation activities. Together with wavelet transformations and gradients as the feature extraction methods, the AHMMAS model caters to price manipulation detection and basic manipulation type recognition. The evaluation experiments conducted on seven stock tick data from NASDAQ and the London Stock Exchange and 10 simulated stock prices by stochastic differential equation show that the proposed AHMMAS model can effectively detect price manipulation patterns and outperforms the selected benchmark models.

A non-Gaussian option pricing model based on Kaniadakis exponential deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moretto, Enrico; Pasquali, Sara; Trivellato, Barbara

2017-09-01

A way to make financial models effective is by letting them to represent the so called "fat tails", i.e., extreme changes in stock prices that are regarded as almost impossible by the standard Gaussian distribution. In this article, the Kaniadakis deformation of the usual exponential function is used to define a random noise source in the dynamics of price processes capable of capturing such real market phenomena.

An Empirical Examination of Counterdrug Interdiction Program Effectiveness.

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-01-01

inversely correlated with the street price index. Chapter IV examines the time dependence of the street price index and argues that interdiction activities...essentially asymptotic behavior in which the cumulative distribution function, for large values of the independent variable, converges to an inverse power-law...log(S) /log(M). Such an inverse power-law relation between unit purchase price and purchase volume is indeed observed within the STRIDE data

An Integrated Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Tool for Evaluating Water Management Responses to Climate Change in the Boise River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, R. D.; Taylor, R. G.; Stodick, L. D.; Contor, B. A.

2009-12-01

A recent federal interagency report on climate change and water management (Brekke et. al., 2009) describes several possible management responses to the impacts of climate change on water supply and demand. Management alternatives include changes to water supply infrastructure, reservoir system operations, and water demand policies. Water users in the Bureau of Reclamation’s Boise Project (located in the Lower Boise River basin in southwestern Idaho) would be among those impacted both hydrologically and economically by climate change. Climate change and management responses to climate change are expected to cause shifts in water supply and demand. Supply shifts would result from changes in basin precipitation patterns, and demand shifts would result from higher evapotranspiration rates and a longer growing season. The impacts would also extend to non-Project water users in the basin, since most non-Project groundwater pumpers and drain water diverters rely on hydrologic externalities created by seepage losses from Boise Project water deliveries. An integrated hydrologic-economic model was developed for the Boise basin to aid Reclamation in evaluating the hydrologic and economic impacts of various management responses to climate change. A spatial, partial-equilibrium, economic optimization model calculates spatially-distinct equilibrium water prices and quantities, and maximizes a social welfare function (the sum of consumer and producers surpluses) for all agricultural and municipal water suppliers and demanders (both Project and non-Project) in the basin. Supply-price functions and demand-price functions are exogenous inputs to the economic optimization model. On the supply side, groundwater and river/reservoir models are used to generate hydrologic responses to various management alternatives. The response data is then used to develop water supply-price functions for Project and non-Project water users. On the demand side, crop production functions incorporating crop distribution, evapotranspiration rates, irrigation efficiencies, and crop prices are used to develop water demand-price functions for agricultural water users. Demand functions for municipal and industrial water users are also developed. Recent applications of the integrated model have focused on the hydrologic and economic impacts of demand management alternatives, including large-scale canal lining conservation measures, and market-based water trading between canal diverters and groundwater pumpers. A supply management alternative being investigated involves revising reservoir rule curves to compensate for climate change impacts on timing of reservoir filling.

Price-dependent quality: examining the effects of price on multimedia quality requirements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hands, David S.; Partridge, Caroline; Cheng, Kennedy; Jacobs, Richard J.

2007-02-01

Traditionally, subjective quality assessments are made in isolation of mediating factors (e.g. interest in content, price). This approach is useful for determining the pure perceptual quality of content. Recently, there has been a growing interest in understanding users' quality of experience. To move from perceptual quality assessment to quality of experience assessment, factors beyond reproduction quality must be considered. From a commercial perspective, content and price are key determinants of success. This paper investigates the relationship between price and quality. Subjects selected content that was of interest to them. Subjects were given a budget of ten pounds at the start of the test. When viewing content, subjects were free to select different levels of quality. The lowest quality was free (and subjects left the test with ten pounds). The highest quality used up the full budget (and subjects left the test with no money). A range of pricing tariffs was used in the test. During the test, subjects were allowed to prioritise quality or price. The results of the test found that subjects prioritised quality over price across all tariff levels. At the higher pricing tariffs, subjects became more price sensitive. Using data from a number of subjective tests, a utility function describing the relationship between price and quality was produced.

Joint pricing, inventory, and preservation decisions for deteriorating items with stochastic demand and promotional efforts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soni, Hardik N.; Chauhan, Ashaba D.

2018-03-01

This study models a joint pricing, inventory, and preservation decision-making problem for deteriorating items subject to stochastic demand and promotional effort. The generalized price-dependent stochastic demand, time proportional deterioration, and partial backlogging rates are used to model the inventory system. The objective is to find the optimal pricing, replenishment, and preservation technology investment strategies while maximizing the total profit per unit time. Based on the partial backlogging and lost sale cases, we first deduce the criterion for optimal replenishment schedules for any given price and technology investment cost. Second, we show that, respectively, total profit per time unit is concave function of price and preservation technology cost. At the end, some numerical examples and the results of a sensitivity analysis are used to illustrate the features of the proposed model.

Rethinking the Discovery Function of Proof within the Context of Proofs and Refutations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Komatsu, Kotaro; Tsujiyama, Yosuke; Sakamaki, Aruta

2014-01-01

Proof and proving are important components of school mathematics and have multiple functions in mathematical practice. Among these functions of proof, this paper focuses on the discovery function that refers to invention of a new statement or conjecture by reflecting on or utilizing a constructed proof. Based on two cases in which eighth and ninth…

Demand impact and policy implications from taxing nitrogen fertilizer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foltz, J.C.

1992-12-01

Recent concern has focused on nitrogen fertilizer as a potential contaminant of groundwater. A demand function for fertilizer was developed using the quantity of fertilizer purchased, corn yield, real price of nitrogen fertilizer, lagged fertilizer purchases, a land value variable and the real price of corn as explanatory variables. Short and long-run price elasticities of demand were estimated to be inelastic. Support was found for the hypothesis that demand for nitrogen fertilizer has become more price inelastic over time. From a policy standpoint, a tax on nitrogen fertilizer may not be the most effective method to reduce consumption.

Research & market strategy: how choice of drug discovery approach can affect market position.

PubMed

Sams-Dodd, Frank

2007-04-01

In principal, drug discovery approaches can be grouped into target- and function-based, with the respective aims of developing either a target-selective drug or a drug that produces a specific biological effect irrespective of its mode of action. Most analyses of drug discovery approaches focus on productivity, whereas the strategic implications of the choice of drug discovery approach on market position and ability to maintain market exclusivity are rarely considered. However, a comparison of approaches from the perspective of market position indicates that the functional approach is superior for the development of novel, innovative treatments.

Demand for pneumococcal vaccination under subsidy program for the elderly in Japan.

PubMed

Kondo, Masahide; Yamamura, Mariko; Hoshi, Shu-Ling; Okubo, Ichiro

2012-09-12

Vaccination programs often organize subsidies and public relations in order to obtain high uptake rates and coverage. However, effects of subsidies and public relations have not been studied well in the literature. In this study, the demand function of pneumococcal vaccination among the elderly in Japan is estimated, incorporating effects of public relations and subsidy. Using a data from a questionnaire survey sent to municipalities, the varying and constant elasticity models were applied to estimate the demand function. The response variable is the uptake rate. Explanatory variables are: subsidy supported shot price, operating years of the program, target population size for vaccination, shot location intensity, income and various public relations tools. The best model is selected by c-AIC, and varying and constant price elasticities are calculated from estimation results. The vaccine uptake rate and the shot price have a negative relation. From the results of varying price elasticity, the demand for vaccination is elastic at municipalities with a shot price higher than 3,708 JPY (35.7 USD). Effects of public relations on the uptake rate are not found. It can be suggested that municipalities with a shot price higher than 3,708 JPY (35.7 USD) could subsidize more and reduce price to increase the demand for vaccination. Effects of public relations are not confirmed in this study, probably due to measurement errors of variables used for public relations, and studies at micro level exploring individual's response to public relations would be required.

The use of copula functions for modeling the risk of investment in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domino, Krzysztof; Błachowicz, Tomasz

2014-11-01

In our work copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using the local Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) were used to investigate the risk of investment made in shares traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. The combination of copula functions and the Hurst exponent calculated using local DFA is a new approach. For copula function analysis bivariate variables composed of shares prices of the PEKAO bank (a big bank with high capitalization) and other banks (PKOBP, BZ WBK, MBANK and HANDLOWY in decreasing capitalization order) and companies from other branches (KGHM-mining industry, PKNORLEN-petrol industry as well as ASSECO-software industry) were used. Hurst exponents were calculated for daily shares prices and used to predict high drops of those prices. It appeared to be a valuable indicator in the copula selection procedure, since Hurst exponent’s low values were pointing on heavily tailed copulas e.g. the Clayton one.

The impact of a federal cigarette minimum pack price policy on cigarette use in the USA.

PubMed

Doogan, Nathan J; Wewers, Mary Ellen; Berman, Micah

2018-03-01

Increasing cigarette prices reduce cigarette use. The US Food and Drug Administration has the authority to regulate the sale and promotion-and therefore the price-of tobacco products. To examine the potential effect of federal minimum price regulation on the sales of cigarettes in the USA. We used yearly state-level data from the Tax Burden on Tobacco and other sources to model per capita cigarette sales as a function of price. We used the fitted model to compare the status quo sales with counterfactual scenarios in which a federal minimum price was set. The minimum price scenarios ranged from $0 to $12. The estimated price effect in our model was comparable with that found in the literature. Our counterfactual analyses suggested that the impact of a minimum price requirement could range from a minimal effect at the $4 level to a reduction of 5.7 billion packs sold per year and 10 million smokers at the $10 level. A federal minimum price policy has the potential to greatly benefit tobacco control and public health by uniformly increasing the price of cigarettes and by eliminating many price-reducing strategies currently available to both sellers and consumers. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Estimated costs of production and potential prices for the WHO Essential Medicines List

PubMed Central

Hill, Andrew M; Barber, Melissa J

2018-01-01

Introduction There are persistent gaps in access to affordable medicines. The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) includes medicines considered necessary for functional health systems. Methods A generic price estimation formula was developed by reviewing published analyses of cost of production for medicines and assuming manufacture in India, which included costs of formulation, packaging, taxation and a 10% profit margin. Data on per-kilogram prices of active pharmaceutical ingredient exported from India were retrieved from an online database. Estimated prices were compared with the lowest globally available prices for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria medicines, and current prices in the UK, South Africa and India. Results The estimation formula had good predictive accuracy for HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria medicines. Estimated generic prices ranged from US$0.01 to US$1.45 per unit, with most in the lower end of this range. Lowest available prices were greater than estimated generic prices for 214/277 (77%) comparable items in the UK, 142/212 (67%) in South Africa and 118/298 (40%) in India. Lowest available prices were more than three times above estimated generic price for 47% of cases compared in the UK and 22% in South Africa. Conclusion A wide range of medicines in the EML can be profitably manufactured at very low cost. Most EML medicines are sold in the UK and South Africa at prices significantly higher than those estimated from production costs. Generic price estimation and international price comparisons could empower government price negotiations and support cost-effectiveness calculations. PMID:29564159

Socioeconophysics:. Opinion Dynamics for Number of Transactions and Price, a Trader Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuncay, Çağlar

Involving effects of media, opinion leader and other agents on the opinion of individuals of market society, a trader based model is developed and utilized to simulate price via supply and demand. Pronounced effects are considered with several weights and some personal differences between traders are taken into account. Resulting time series and probabilty distribution function involving a power law for price come out similar to the real ones.

A quantum anharmonic oscillator model for the stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tingting; Chen, Yu

2017-02-01

A financially interpretable quantum model is proposed to study the probability distributions of the stock price return. The dynamics of a quantum particle is considered an analog of the motion of stock price. Then the probability distributions of price return can be computed from the wave functions that evolve according to Schrodinger equation. Instead of a harmonic oscillator in previous studies, a quantum anharmonic oscillator is applied to the stock in liquid market. The leptokurtic distributions of price return can be reproduced by our quantum model with the introduction of mixed-state and multi-potential. The trend following dominant market, in which the price return follows a bimodal distribution, is discussed as a specific case of the illiquid market.

Basic Economic Principles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tideman, T. N.

1972-01-01

An economic approach to design efficient transportation systems involves maximizing an objective function that reflects both goals and costs. A demand curve can be derived by finding the quantities of a good that solve the maximization problem as one varies the price of that commodity, holding income and the prices of all other goods constant. A supply curve is derived by applying the idea of profit maximization of firms. The production function determines the relationship between input and output.

Climate change economics: Make carbon pricing a priority

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hepburn, Cameron

2017-06-01

Estimates of the social cost of carbon vary widely as a function of different ethical parameters. Faced with values ranging from US$10 to US$1,000 per tCO2 and above, some perplexed policymakers have adopted 'target-consistent' carbon pricing instead.

Liquidity crisis, granularity of the order book and price fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristelli, M.; Alfi, V.; Pietronero, L.; Zaccaria, A.

2010-01-01

We introduce a microscopic model for the dynamics of the order book to study how the lack of liquidity influences price fluctuations. We use the average density of the stored orders (granularity g) as a proxy for liquidity. This leads to a Price Impact Surface which depends on both volume ω and g. The dependence on the volume (averaged over the granularity) of the Price Impact Surface is found to be a concave power law function <φ(ω,g)>g ˜ ωδ with δ ≈ 0.59. Instead the dependence on the granularity is φ(ω,g|ω) ˜ gα with α ≈ -1, showing a divergence of price fluctuations in the limit g → 0. Moreover, even in intermediate situations of finite liquidity, this effect can be very large and it is a natural candidate for understanding the origin of large price fluctuations.

The Role of Inflation and Price Escalation Adjustments in Properly Estimating Program Costs: F-35 Case Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-04-30

costs of new defense systems. An inappropriate price index can introduce errors in both development of cost estimating relationships ( CERs ) and in...indexes derived from CERs . These indexes isolate changes in price due to factors other than changes in quality over time. We develop a “Baseline” CER ...The hedonic index application has commonalities with cost estimating relationships ( CERs ), which also model system costs as a function of quality

Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

1987-05-01

Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

Data set for Journal article "The shale gas revolution: barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Richard Stephen

Shale gas and hydraulic refracturing has revolutionized the US energy sector in terms of prices, consumption, and CO 2 emissions. However, key questions remain including environmental concerns and extraction efficiencies that are leveling off. For the first time, we identify key discoveries, lessons learned, and recommendations from this shale gas revolution through extensive data mining and analysis of 23 years of production from 20,000 wells. Discoveries include identification of a learning-bydoing process where disruptive technology innovation led to a doubling in shale gas extraction, how refracturing with emerging technologies can transform existing wells, and how overall shale gas production ismore » actually dominated by long-term tail production rather than the high-profile initial exponentially-declining production in the first 12 months. We hypothesize that tail production can be manipulated, through better fracturing techniques and alternative working fluids such as CO 2, to increase shale gas recovery and minimize environmental impacts such as through carbon sequestration.« less

The shale gas revolution: Barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Middleton, Richard S.; Gupta, Rajan; Hyman, Jeffrey D.

Shale gas and hydraulic refracturing has revolutionized the US energy sector in terms of prices, consumption, and CO 2 emissions. However, key questions remain including environmental concerns and extraction efficiencies that are leveling off. For the first time, we identify key discoveries, lessons learned, and recommendations from this shale gas revolution through extensive data mining and analysis of 23 years of production from 20,000 wells. Discoveries include identification of a learning-by-doing process where disruptive technology innovation led to a doubling in shale gas extraction, how refracturing with emerging technologies can transform existing wells, and how overall shale gas production ismore » actually dominated by long-term tail production rather than the high-profile initial exponentially-declining production in the first 12 months. We hypothesize that tail production can be manipulated, through better fracturing techniques and alternative working fluids such as CO 2, to increase shale gas recovery and minimize environmental impacts such as through carbon sequestration.« less

The Discovery of Penicillin—New Insights After More Than 75 Years of Clinical Use

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

After just over 75 years of penicillin’s clinical use, the world can see that its impact was immediate and profound. In 1928, a chance event in Alexander Fleming’s London laboratory changed the course of medicine. However, the purification and first clinical use of penicillin would take more than a decade. Unprecedented United States/Great Britain cooperation to produce penicillin was incredibly successful by 1943. This success overshadowed efforts to produce penicillin during World War II in Europe, particularly in the Netherlands. Information about these efforts, available only in the last 10–15 years, provides new insights into the story of the first antibiotic. Researchers in the Netherlands produced penicillin using their own production methods and marketed it in 1946, which eventually increased the penicillin supply and decreased the price. The unusual serendipity involved in the discovery of penicillin demonstrates the difficulties in finding new antibiotics and should remind health professionals to expertly manage these extraordinary medicines.

Lognormal field size distributions as a consequence of economic truncation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Drew, L.J.

1985-01-01

The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation. ?? 1985 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

The shale gas revolution: Barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities

DOE PAGES

Middleton, Richard S.; Gupta, Rajan; Hyman, Jeffrey D.; ...

2017-08-01

Shale gas and hydraulic refracturing has revolutionized the US energy sector in terms of prices, consumption, and CO 2 emissions. However, key questions remain including environmental concerns and extraction efficiencies that are leveling off. For the first time, we identify key discoveries, lessons learned, and recommendations from this shale gas revolution through extensive data mining and analysis of 23 years of production from 20,000 wells. Discoveries include identification of a learning-by-doing process where disruptive technology innovation led to a doubling in shale gas extraction, how refracturing with emerging technologies can transform existing wells, and how overall shale gas production ismore » actually dominated by long-term tail production rather than the high-profile initial exponentially-declining production in the first 12 months. We hypothesize that tail production can be manipulated, through better fracturing techniques and alternative working fluids such as CO 2, to increase shale gas recovery and minimize environmental impacts such as through carbon sequestration.« less

The mechanism of double-exponential growth in hyper-inflation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, T.; Takayasu, M.; Takayasu, H.

2002-05-01

Analyzing historical data of price indices, we find an extraordinary growth phenomenon in several examples of hyper-inflation in which, price changes are approximated nicely by double-exponential functions of time. In order to explain such behavior we introduce the general coarse-graining technique in physics, the Monte Carlo renormalization group method, to the price dynamics. Starting from a microscopic stochastic equation describing dealers’ actions in open markets, we obtain a macroscopic noiseless equation of price consistent with the observation. The effect of auto-catalytic shortening of characteristic time caused by mob psychology is shown to be responsible for the double-exponential behavior.

Evaluating the Mechanism of Oil Price Shocks and Fiscal Policy Responses in the Malaysian Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bekhet, Hussain A.; Yusoff, Nora Yusma Mohamed

2013-06-01

The paper aims to explore the symmetric impact of oil price shock on economy, to understand its mechanism channel and how fiscal policy response towards it. The Generalized Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition under the VAR methodology were employed. The empirical findings suggest that symmetric oil price shock has a positive and direct impact on oil revenue and government expenditure. However, the real GDP is vulnerable in a short-term but not in the long term period. These results would confirm that fiscal policy is the main mechanism channel that mitigates the adverse effects oil price shocks to the economy.

History of asbestos related disease

PubMed Central

Bartrip, P

2004-01-01

The first medical article on the hazards of asbestos dust appeared in the British Medical Journal in 1924. Following inquiries by Edward Merewether and Charles Price, the British government introduced regulations to control dangerous dust emissions in UK asbestos factories. Until the 1960s these appeared to have addressed the problem effectively. Only then, with the discoveries that mesothelioma was an asbestos related disease and that workers other than those employed in the dustiest parts of asbestos factories were at risk, were the nature and scale of the hazard reassessed. In Britain, America, and elsewhere new and increasingly strict regulations were enacted. PMID:14970292

Essays in Energy Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spurlock, Cecily Anna

In this dissertation I explore two aspects of the economics of energy. The first focuses on consumer behavior, while the second focuses on market structure and firm behavior. In the first chapter, I demonstrate evidence of loss aversion in the behavior of households on two critical peak pricing experimental tariffs while participating in the California Statewide Pricing Pilot. I develop a model of loss aversion over electricity expenditure from which I derive two sets of testable predictions. First, I show that when there is a higher probability that a household is in the loss domain of their value function for the bill period, the more strongly they cut back peak consumption. Second, when prices are such that households are close to the kink in their value function - and would otherwise have expenditure skewed into the loss domain---I show evidence of disproportionate clustering at the kink. In essence this means that the occurrence of critical peak days did not only result in a reduction of peak consumption on that day, but also spilled over to further reduction of peak consumption on regular peak days for several weeks thereafter. This was similarly true when temperatures were high during high priced periods. This form of demand adjustment resulted in households experiencing bill-period expenditures equal to what they would have paid on the standard non-dynamic pricing tariff at a disproportionate rate. This higher number of bill periods with equal expenditure displaced bill periods in which they otherwise would have paid more than if they were on standard pricing. In the second chapter, I explore the effects of two simultaneous changes in minimum energy efficiency and Energy Star standards for clothes washers. Adapting the Mussa and Rosen (1978) and Ronnen (1991) second-degree price discrimination model, I demonstrate that clothes washer prices and menus adjusted to the new standards in patterns consistent with a market in which firms had been price discriminating. In particular, I show evidence of discontinuous price drops at the time the standards were imposed, driven largely by mid low efficiency segments of the market. The price discrimination model predicts this result. On the other hand, under perfect competition, prices should increase for these market segments. Additionally, new models proliferated in the highest efficiency market segment following the standard changes. Finally, I show that firms appeared to use different adaptation strategies at the two instances of the standards changing.

A novel method of estimating cost of therapy by using patient population characteristics: analysis of fluoroquinolones in various populations with different distributions of renal function.

PubMed

Enzweiler, Kevin A; Bosso, John A; White, Roger L

2003-07-01

Formulary decisions regarding a given drug class are often made in the absence of patient outcome and/or sophisticated pharmacoeconomic data. Analyses that consider factors beyond simple acquisition costs may be useful in such situations. For example, the cost implications of using manufacturers' recommendations for dosing in patients with renal dysfunction may be important, depending on the distribution of various levels of renal function within a patient population. Using four 1000-patient populations representing different renal function distributions and a fifth population of our medical center's distribution, we determined the costs of therapy for intravenous and oral levofloxacin, gatifloxacin, and moxifloxacin for a 10-day course of therapy for community-acquired pneumonia. Costs considered were average wholesale prices (AWPs), 50% of AWP, or same daily price, plus intravenous dose preparation and administration costs when applicable. Costs for each renal function distribution were examined for significant differences with an analysis-of-variance test. Also, costs of failing to adjust dosing regimens for decreased renal function were determined. Differences in fluoroquinolone costs (AWP, 50% AWP, or when matched as the same daily price) among the populations were found. When considering same daily prices, differences among populations ranged from about 35,000 dollars with intravenous gatifloxacin to more than 51,000 dollars for intravenous levofloxacin (all fluoroquinolones, p>0.05). Within a population, differences in costs among the intravenous fluoroquinolones ranged from 47,000-99,000 dollars. Rank orders of the drugs and population costs of therapy were affected by the pricing structure used and varied by the specific population and drug. Differences among the fluoroquinolones or populations were much smaller (<2100 dollars) when considering oral regimens. Costs potentially incurred by failing to adjust dosing for renal function were substantial. Formulary decisions can be facilitated by considering factors such as patient characteristics and related dosing in addition to simple acquisition costs. In our example, consideration of the distribution of renal function within a given patient population and related dosing for these fluoroquinolones revealed potentially important differences within the class.

Ligand-based receptor tyrosine kinase partial agonists: New paradigm for cancer drug discovery?

PubMed

Riese, David J

2011-02-01

INTRODUCTION: Receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs) are validated targets for oncology drug discovery and several RTK antagonists have been approved for the treatment of human malignancies. Nonetheless, the discovery and development of RTK antagonists has lagged behind the discovery and development of agents that target G-protein coupled receptors. In part, this is because it has been difficult to discover analogs of naturally-occurring RTK agonists that function as antagonists. AREAS COVERED: Here we describe ligands of ErbB receptors that function as partial agonists for these receptors, thereby enabling these ligands to antagonize the activity of full agonists for these receptors. We provide insights into the mechanisms by which these ligands function as antagonists. We discuss how information concerning these mechanisms can be translated into screens for novel small molecule- and antibody-based antagonists of ErbB receptors and how such antagonists hold great potential as targeted cancer chemotherapeutics. EXPERT OPINION: While there have been a number of important key findings into this field, the identification of the structural basis of ligand functional specificity is still of the greatest importance. While it is true that, with some notable exceptions, peptide hormones and growth factors have not proven to be good platforms for oncology drug discovery; addressing the fundamental issues of antagonistic partial agonists for receptor tyrosine kinases has the potential to steer oncology drug discovery in new directions. Mechanism based approaches are now emerging to enable the discovery of RTK partial agonists that may antagonize both agonist-dependent and -independent RTK signaling and may hold tremendous promise as targeted cancer chemotherapeutics.

Estimating Elasticity for Residential Electricity Demand in China

PubMed Central

Shi, G.; Zheng, X.; Song, F.

2012-01-01

Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff. PMID:22997492

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Estimating elasticity for residential electricity demand in China.

PubMed

Shi, G; Zheng, X; Song, F

2012-01-01

Residential demand for electricity is estimated for China using a unique household level dataset. Household electricity demand is specified as a function of local electricity price, household income, and a number of social-economic variables at household level. We find that the residential demand for electricity responds rather sensitively to its own price in China, which implies that there is significant potential to use the price instrument to conserve electricity consumption. Electricity elasticities across different heterogeneous household groups (e.g., rich versus poor and rural versus urban) are also estimated. The results show that the high income group is more price elastic than the low income group, while rural families are more price elastic than urban families. These results have important policy implications for designing an increasing block tariff.

Demand for pneumococcal vaccination under subsidy program for the elderly in Japan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Vaccination programs often organize subsidies and public relations in order to obtain high uptake rates and coverage. However, effects of subsidies and public relations have not been studied well in the literature. In this study, the demand function of pneumococcal vaccination among the elderly in Japan is estimated, incorporating effects of public relations and subsidy. Methods Using a data from a questionnaire survey sent to municipalities, the varying and constant elasticity models were applied to estimate the demand function. The response variable is the uptake rate. Explanatory variables are: subsidy supported shot price, operating years of the program, target population size for vaccination, shot location intensity, income and various public relations tools. The best model is selected by c-AIC, and varying and constant price elasticities are calculated from estimation results. Results The vaccine uptake rate and the shot price have a negative relation. From the results of varying price elasticity, the demand for vaccination is elastic at municipalities with a shot price higher than 3,708 JPY (35.7 USD). Effects of public relations on the uptake rate are not found. Conclusions It can be suggested that municipalities with a shot price higher than 3,708 JPY (35.7 USD) could subsidize more and reduce price to increase the demand for vaccination. Effects of public relations are not confirmed in this study, probably due to measurement errors of variables used for public relations, and studies at micro level exploring individual’s response to public relations would be required. PMID:22970727

Chemical Discovery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Herbert C.

1974-01-01

The role of discovery in the advance of the science of chemistry and the factors that are currently operating to handicap that function are considered. Examples are drawn from the author's work with boranes. The thesis that exploratory research and discovery should be encouraged is stressed. (DT)

[Three decades of the hepatitis C virus from the discovery to the potential global elimination: the success of translational researches].

PubMed

Pár, Alajos; Pár, Gabriella

2018-03-01

More than 25 years after the discovery of hepatitis C virus, the development of the direct acting antivirals can lead to the regional or long-term global elimination of the virus with over 90% efficacy. This is the success of basic and clinical translational research. Yet, some unsolved challanges remain, such as the great number of unidentified patients who are not aware of their condition, the limited access to the therapy due to the high prices of the drugs, and the treatment of resistance-associated variants. In addition, the lack of vaccine is also an obstacle. In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) developed the first global health sector strategy for the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030. Its evidence-based guidelines are primarily targeted at the national hepatitis programme managers who are responsible for the national testing and treatment plans. According to these recommendations, it is of basic importance to perform focused risk-based testing in higher-risk populations and after diagnosis to start treatment as "cure as prevention", furthermore, to limit the risk of reinfection. We review the events of the HCV story from the discovery to these days, including virology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and therapy. Orv Hetil. 2018; 159(12): 455-465.

76 FR 4703 - Statement of Organization, Functions, and Delegations of Authority

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-26

... regarding medical loss ratio standards and the insurance premium rate review process, and issues premium... Oriented Plan program. Collects, compiles and maintains comparative pricing data for an Internet portal... benefit from the new health insurance system. Collects, compiles and maintains comparative pricing data...

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes in prices and volatility to be correlated. The results show that the value of a power plant is much higher using the financial option model than using traditional discounted cash flow.

Limit order placement as an utility maximization problem and the origin of power law distribution of limit order prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lillo, F.

2007-02-01

I consider the problem of the optimal limit order price of a financial asset in the framework of the maximization of the utility function of the investor. The analytical solution of the problem gives insight on the origin of the recently empirically observed power law distribution of limit order prices. In the framework of the model, the most likely proximate cause of this power law is a power law heterogeneity of traders' investment time horizons.

Alcohol price elasticities in control and license states in the United States, 1982-99.

PubMed

Trolldal, Björn; Ponicki, William

2005-08-01

The demand for alcohol has been demonstrated repeatedly to be sensitive to price changes. However, estimated price elasticities vary by study region and over time. One explanation for these variations might be that different countries or parts of countries have had different alcohol control systems. The hypothesis addressed in this study was that a regulated market leads to higher transaction costs associated with purchasing alcohol, which in turn increases the full price of the beverages (the nominal cash price plus transaction costs). As a result, the cash price of alcohol represents a smaller part of the full price in a highly regulated market. Assuming that customers respond primarily to changes in full price, the demand for alcohol should be less sensitive to changes in cash price where regulation is stricter. This study examined whether variations in price elasticities were a function of the different regulatory systems in control and license states in the United States during the period 1982-99. Time-series cross-sectional analyses (in 50 states over 18 years) were conducted. Elasticities were estimated using a multiplicative model based upon first-differences of time-series within states. Disposable income and other socio-demographic variables were used as control variables. All data were obtained from archival sources. The demand for spirits and beer were significantly more sensitive to price changes in license states than in control states. The estimated price elasticity for wine sales was also somewhat larger in license states, but not significantly so. The lower price elasticities for spirits and beer in the control states support the hypothesis that customers respond primarily to changes in the full price of alcohol.

[Mechanics and effects of European reference pricing for vaccines in Germany according to §130a Abs. 2 SGB V: an analysis using the example of influenza vaccines].

PubMed

Barth, J; Hammerschmidt, T; Vollmar, J; Bierbaum, M; Schöffski, O

2014-04-01

On 01 January 2011 the bill for the reorganisation of the pharmaceutical market became effective. Since that time there is a European reference pricing (ERP) system for vaccines in order to bring down the German vaccine prices to an assumed lower European level. This study describes the implementation, functioning and effect of this new system. For influenza vaccines the impact of ERP on the price level and spread of prices is analysed. The description of the mechanism is based on the law and corresponding regulations of the head association of sickness funds (GKV-SV). The analysis of vaccine prices is based on the data of the i:data report (status of 01 September 2011) of ifap Service Institute. The European reference price is calculated as the average price of the manufacturer-selling-prices of the corresponding vaccine in the 4 countries of the European Union whose gross national income comes closest to the German one and in which the vaccine is distributed. The relied prices are weighted by sales and purchasing power parities of the respective countries. This analysis suggests that in particular the practical implementation of the reference price system should be further improved and specified. The calculation of the reference prices should ensure price comparability. In addition, significant problems remain in the deduction of discounts, because no distinction is made in the documentation of vaccinating doctors, whether vaccination was performed as a compulsory or statutory benefit. The comparison of the manufacturer-selling-prices of individual influenza vaccines with the corresponding reference prices shows an enlargement of the existing price differences, which have evolved in a competitive environment, after the implementation of the reference pricing -system. There is still a need for improvement in implementing the reference pricing system. In the most competitive vaccine market of influenza vaccines, the ERP-system lowers the prices, but seems to distort the market prices. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Web service discovery among large service pools utilising semantic similarity and clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Fuzan; Li, Minqiang; Wu, Harris; Xie, Lingli

2017-03-01

With the rapid development of electronic business, Web services have attracted much attention in recent years. Enterprises can combine individual Web services to provide new value-added services. An emerging challenge is the timely discovery of close matches to service requests among large service pools. In this study, we first define a new semantic similarity measure combining functional similarity and process similarity. We then present a service discovery mechanism that utilises the new semantic similarity measure for service matching. All the published Web services are pre-grouped into functional clusters prior to the matching process. For a user's service request, the discovery mechanism first identifies matching services clusters and then identifies the best matching Web services within these matching clusters. Experimental results show that the proposed semantic discovery mechanism performs better than a conventional lexical similarity-based mechanism.

Probability, Problem Solving, and "The Price is Right."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Eric

1992-01-01

This article discusses the analysis of a decision-making process faced by contestants on the television game show "The Price is Right". The included analyses of the original and related problems concern pattern searching, inductive reasoning, quadratic functions, and graphing. Computer simulation programs in BASIC and tables of…

Designing an agricultural vegetative waste-management system under uncertain prices of treatment-technology output products.

PubMed

Broitman, D; Raviv, O; Ayalon, O; Kan, I

2018-05-01

Setting up a sustainable agricultural vegetative waste-management system is a challenging investment task, particularly when markets for output products of waste-treatment technologies are not well established. We conduct an economic analysis of possible investments in treatment technologies of agricultural vegetative waste, while accounting for fluctuating output prices. Under a risk-neutral approach, we find the range of output-product prices within which each considered technology becomes most profitable, using average final prices as the exclusive factor. Under a risk-averse perspective, we rank the treatment technologies based on their computed certainty-equivalent profits as functions of the coefficient of variation of the technologies' output prices. We find the ranking of treatment technologies based on average prices to be robust to output-price fluctuations provided that the coefficient of variation of the output prices is below about 0.4, that is, approximately twice as high as that of well-established recycled-material markets such as glass, paper and plastic. We discuss some policy implications that arise from our analysis regarding vegetative waste management and its associated risks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price elasticity and medication use: cost sharing across multiple clinical conditions.

PubMed

Gatwood, Justin; Gibson, Teresa B; Chernew, Michael E; Farr, Amanda M; Vogtmann, Emily; Fendrick, A Mark

2014-11-01

To address the impact that out-of-pocket prices may have on medication use, it is vital to understand how the demand for medications may be affected when patients are faced with changes in the price to acquire treatment and how price responsiveness differs across medication classes.  To examine the impact of cost-sharing changes on the demand for 8 classes of prescription medications. This was a retrospective database analysis of 11,550,363 commercially insured enrollees within the 2005-2009 MarketScan Database. Patient cost sharing, expressed as a price index for each medication class, was the main explanatory variable to examine the price elasticity of demand. Negative binomial fixed effect models were estimated to examine medication fills. The elasticity estimates reflect how use changes over time as a function of changes in copayments. Model estimates revealed that price elasticity of demand ranged from -0.015 to -0.157 within the 8 categories of medications (P  less than  0.01 for 7 of 8 categories). The price elasticity of demand for smoking deterrents was largest (-0.157, P  less than  0.0001), while demand for antiplatelet agents was not responsive to price (P  greater than 0.05). The price elasticity of demand varied considerably by medication class, suggesting that the influence of cost sharing on medication use may be related to characteristics inherent to each medication class or underlying condition.

The shadow price of substitutable sulfur in the US electric power plant: a distance function approach.

PubMed

Lee, Myunghun

2005-10-01

Given restrictions on sulfur dioxide emissions, a feasible long-run response could involve either an investment in improving boiler fuel-efficiency or a shift to a production process that is effective in removing sulfur dioxide. To allow for the possibility of substitution between sulfur and productive capital, we measure the shadow price of sulfur dioxide as the opportunity cost of lowering sulfur emissions in terms of forgone capital. The input distance function is estimated with data from 51 coal-fired US power units operating between 1977 and 1986. The indirect Morishima elasticities of substitution indicate that the substitutability of capital for sulfur is relatively high. The overall weighted average estimate of the shadow price of sulfur is -0.076 dollars per pound in constant 1976 dollars.

Jumping into the 20th century before it is too late: is laboratory robotics still in its infancy?

PubMed Central

Weinstein, David B.; France, Dennis S.

1992-01-01

Successful management of laboratory robotic automation programmes in the environment of research and drug discovery within the pharmaceutical industry may perhaps be best compared to a chef preparing the perfect hollandaise sauce. All the ingredients must be available at the same time and be of highest quality for the right price. However, if components are not added in the right quantities and in the proper order, no amount of whipping together by the product champion will create the best product. In the past, managerial scepticism surrounding useful implementation of cost-effective, high-throughput robotic systems often placed these ‘modern toys’ at low priorities for research development laboratories. Management now recognizes the unique contributions of robotics in the research environment. Although the scientific director must still play the role of product champion, new questions are being proposed and new commitments are being made to bring the potential of robotic automation to every laboratory where repetitive functions can benefit from new applications. Research laboratory directors have become both the key ingredient, as well as the rate-limiting determinant in the development of new applications. Having fulfilled the promise of robotic automation to release talented personnel, the challenge now is for the ‘end users’, the bench scientists, to be provided with opportunities to invest the time and effort required for future applications and new career functions. PMID:18924929

Jumping into the 20th century before it is too late: is laboratory robotics still in its infancy?

PubMed

Weinstein, D B; France, D S

1992-01-01

Successful management of laboratory robotic automation programmes in the environment of research and drug discovery within the pharmaceutical industry may perhaps be best compared to a chef preparing the perfect hollandaise sauce. All the ingredients must be available at the same time and be of highest quality for the right price. However, if components are not added in the right quantities and in the proper order, no amount of whipping together by the product champion will create the best product. In the past, managerial scepticism surrounding useful implementation of cost-effective, high-throughput robotic systems often placed these 'modern toys' at low priorities for research development laboratories. Management now recognizes the unique contributions of robotics in the research environment. Although the scientific director must still play the role of product champion, new questions are being proposed and new commitments are being made to bring the potential of robotic automation to every laboratory where repetitive functions can benefit from new applications. Research laboratory directors have become both the key ingredient, as well as the rate-limiting determinant in the development of new applications. Having fulfilled the promise of robotic automation to release talented personnel, the challenge now is for the 'end users', the bench scientists, to be provided with opportunities to invest the time and effort required for future applications and new career functions.

Cautionary Notes on a Global Tiered Pricing Framework for Medicines

PubMed Central

Williams, Owain D.; Ooms, Gorik

2015-01-01

Recently, there has been a policy momentum toward creating a global tiered pricing framework, which would provide differentiated prices for medicines globally, based on each country’s capacity to pay. We studied the most influential proposals for a tiered pricing framework since the 1995 World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. We synthesized 6 critical questions to be addressed for a global framework to function and explored the many challenges of implementation. Although we acknowledge that there is the potential for an exceptional global commitment that would benefit both producers and those in developing countries in need of wider access to medicines, our greatest concern is to ensure that a global framework does not price out the poor from pharmaceutical markets nor threaten current flexibilities within the international patent regime. PMID:25973806

Stock price change rate prediction by utilizing social network activities.

PubMed

Deng, Shangkun; Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques.

Stock Price Change Rate Prediction by Utilizing Social Network Activities

PubMed Central

Mitsubuchi, Takashi; Sakurai, Akito

2014-01-01

Predicting stock price change rates for providing valuable information to investors is a challenging task. Individual participants may express their opinions in social network service (SNS) before or after their transactions in the market; we hypothesize that stock price change rate is better predicted by a function of social network service activities and technical indicators than by a function of just stock market activities. The hypothesis is tested by accuracy of predictions as well as performance of simulated trading because success or failure of prediction is better measured by profits or losses the investors gain or suffer. In this paper, we propose a hybrid model that combines multiple kernel learning (MKL) and genetic algorithm (GA). MKL is adopted to optimize the stock price change rate prediction models that are expressed in a multiple kernel linear function of different types of features extracted from different sources. GA is used to optimize the trading rules used in the simulated trading by fusing the return predictions and values of three well-known overbought and oversold technical indicators. Accumulated return and Sharpe ratio were used to test the goodness of performance of the simulated trading. Experimental results show that our proposed model performed better than other models including ones using state of the art techniques. PMID:24790586

Research on WNN Modeling for Gold Price Forecasting Based on Improved Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Gold price forecasting has been a hot issue in economics recently. In this work, wavelet neural network (WNN) combined with a novel artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed for this gold price forecasting issue. In this improved algorithm, the conventional roulette selection strategy is discarded. Besides, the convergence statuses in a previous cycle of iteration are fully utilized as feedback messages to manipulate the searching intensity in a subsequent cycle. Experimental results confirm that this new algorithm converges faster than the conventional ABC when tested on some classical benchmark functions and is effective to improve modeling capacity of WNN regarding the gold price forecasting scheme. PMID:24744773

Dilemmas of Transfer Pricing Comparability Analysis in Manufacturing Entities. Polish-Czech Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulik-Górecka, Aleksandra

2018-06-01

Modern manufacturing entities often operate in capital groups, and their role is sometimes limited to the function of cost centers. From the legal point of view, however, they are separate entities obliged to apply transfer pricing regulations. Meeting the requirements of the arm's length principle can be very difficult at this time, given the relationships and conflicts of interest in the capital group. Complexity increases in capital groups operating in different countries, due to differences in tax regulations. The main purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that the need to valuate the sale of finished goods to a manufacturing entity, which is a subject to a different tax jurisdiction, may lead to a problem of compliance with the arm's length principle. In addition, the paper proposes a methodology for comparability analysis that may be used by manufacturing entities to defend conditions of setting transfer pricing. The paper presents the different functional profiles of manufacturing entities and points out the difficulties that they may encounter when preparing the comparability analysis. It has also been noted that there are differences in transfer pricing regulations in different countries, for example by analyzing Polish and Czech regulations. The lack of uniform benchmarking legislation can cause inconsistencies in the selection of comparable data, resulting in differences in transfer pricing. The paper uses the method of legal regulation review and analysis of results of published studies concerning the scope of transfer pricing and comparability analysis. The paper also adopts a case study analysis.

The shadow price of CO2 emissions in China's iron and steel industry.

PubMed

Wang, Ke; Che, Linan; Ma, Chunbo; Wei, Yi-Ming

2017-11-15

As China becomes the world's largest energy consumer and CO 2 emitter, there has been a rapidly emerging literature on estimating China's abatement cost for CO 2 using a distance function approach. However, the existing studies have mostly focused on the cost estimates at macro levels (provinces or industries) with few examining firm-level abatement costs. No work has attempted to estimate the abatement cost of CO 2 emissions in the iron and steel industry. Although some have argued that the directional distance function (DDF) is more appropriate in the presence of bad output under regulation, the choice of directions is largely arbitrary. This study provides the most up-to-date estimate of the shadow price of CO 2 using a unique dataset of China's major iron and steel enterprises in 2014. The paper uses output quadratic DDF and investigates the impact of using different directional vectors representing different carbon mitigation strategies. The results show that the mean CO 2 shadow price of China's iron and steel enterprises is very sensitive to the choice of direction vectors. The average shadow prices of CO 2 are 407, 1226 and 6058Yuan/tonne respectively for the three different direction vectors. We also find substantial heterogeneity in the shadow prices of CO 2 emissions among China's major iron and steel enterprises. Larger, listed enterprises are found to be associated lower CO 2 shadow prices than smaller, unlisted enterprises. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity and nonlinearity in consumers’ preferences: An application to the olive oil shopping behavior in Chile

PubMed Central

Romo-Muñoz, Rodrigo Alejandro; Cabas-Monje, Juan Hernán; Garrido-Henrríquez, Héctor Manuel

2017-01-01

In relatively unknown products, consumers use prices as a quality reference. Under such circumstances, the utility function can be non-negative for a specific price range and generate an inverted U-shaped function. The extra virgin olive oil market in Chile is a good example. Although domestic production and consumption have increased significantly in the last few years, consumer knowledge of this product is still limited. The objective of this study was to analyze Chilean consumer preferences and willingness to pay for extra virgin olive oil attributes. Consumers were segmented taking into account purchasing frequency. A Random Parameter Logit model was estimated for preference heterogeneity. Results indicate that the utility function is nonlinear allowing us to differentiate between two regimes. In the first regime, olive oil behaves as a conspicuous good, that is, higher utility is assigned to higher prices and consumers prefer foreign products in smaller containers. Under the second regime, Chilean olive oil in larger containers is preferred. PMID:28892516

Heterogeneity and nonlinearity in consumers' preferences: An application to the olive oil shopping behavior in Chile.

PubMed

Romo-Muñoz, Rodrigo Alejandro; Cabas-Monje, Juan Hernán; Garrido-Henrríquez, Héctor Manuel; Gil, José María

2017-01-01

In relatively unknown products, consumers use prices as a quality reference. Under such circumstances, the utility function can be non-negative for a specific price range and generate an inverted U-shaped function. The extra virgin olive oil market in Chile is a good example. Although domestic production and consumption have increased significantly in the last few years, consumer knowledge of this product is still limited. The objective of this study was to analyze Chilean consumer preferences and willingness to pay for extra virgin olive oil attributes. Consumers were segmented taking into account purchasing frequency. A Random Parameter Logit model was estimated for preference heterogeneity. Results indicate that the utility function is nonlinear allowing us to differentiate between two regimes. In the first regime, olive oil behaves as a conspicuous good, that is, higher utility is assigned to higher prices and consumers prefer foreign products in smaller containers. Under the second regime, Chilean olive oil in larger containers is preferred.

Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yougui; Stanley, H. E.

2009-04-01

A statistical approach to market equilibrium and efficiency analysis is proposed in this paper. One factor that governs the exchange decisions of traders in a market, named willingness price, is highlighted and constitutes the whole theory. The supply and demand functions are formulated as the distributions of corresponding willing exchange over the willingness price. The laws of supply and demand can be derived directly from these distributions. The characteristics of excess demand function are analyzed and the necessary conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium point of the market are specified. The rationing rates of buyers and sellers are introduced to describe the ratio of realized exchange to willing exchange, and their dependence on the market price is studied in the cases of shortage and surplus. The realized market surplus, which is the criterion of market efficiency, can be written as a function of the distributions of willing exchange and the rationing rates. With this approach we can strictly prove that a market is efficient in the state of equilibrium.

Influence of Price and Labeling on Energy Drink Purchasing in an Experimental Convenience Store.

PubMed

Temple, Jennifer L; Ziegler, Amanda M; Epstein, Leonard H

2016-01-01

To examine the impact of energy drink (ED) pricing and labeling on the purchase of EDs. Participants visited a laboratory-based convenience store 3 times and purchased a beverage under different ED labeling (none, caffeine content, and warning labels) and pricing conditions. The 36 participants (aged 15-30 years) were classified as energy drink consumers (≥ 2 energy drinks/wk) and nonconsumers (< 1 energy drink/mo). Data were log transformed to generate elasticity coefficients. The authors analyzed changes in elasticity as a function of price and labeling using mixed-effects regression models. Increasing the price of EDs reduced ED purchases and increased purchasing of other caffeinated beverages among ED consumers. Energy drink labels affected ED sales in adolescents. These data suggest that ED pricing and labeling may influence the purchasing of ED, especially in adolescent consumers. Copyright © 2016 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neural basis of economic bubble behavior.

PubMed

Ogawa, A; Onozaki, T; Mizuno, T; Asamizuya, T; Ueno, K; Cheng, K; Iriki, A

2014-04-18

Throughout human history, economic bubbles have formed and burst. As a bubble grows, microeconomic behavior ceases to be constrained by realistic predictions. This contradicts the basic assumption of economics that agents have rational expectations. To examine the neural basis of behavior during bubbles, we performed functional magnetic resonance imaging while participants traded shares in a virtual stock exchange with two non-bubble stocks and one bubble stock. The price was largely deflected from the fair price in one of the non-bubble stocks, but not in the other. Their fair prices were specified. The price of the bubble stock showed a large increase and battering, as based on a real stock-market bust. The imaging results revealed modulation of the brain circuits that regulate trade behavior under different market conditions. The premotor cortex was activated only under a market condition in which the price was largely deflected from the fair price specified. During the bubble, brain regions associated with the cognitive processing that supports order decisions were identified. The asset preference that might bias the decision was associated with the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). The activity of the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) was correlated with the score of future time perspective, which would bias the estimation of future price. These regions were deemed to form a distinctive network during the bubble. A functional connectivity analysis showed that the connectivity between the DLPFC and the IPL was predominant compared with other connectivities only during the bubble. These findings indicate that uncertain and unstable market conditions changed brain modes in traders. These brain mechanisms might lead to a loss of control caused by wishful thinking, and to microeconomic bubbles that expand, on the macroscopic scale, toward bust. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A Stated Preference Investigation into the Chinese Demand for Farmed vs. Wild Bear Bile

PubMed Central

Dutton, Adam J.; Hepburn, Cameron; Macdonald, David W.

2011-01-01

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product. PMID:21799733

A stated preference investigation into the Chinese demand for farmed vs. wild bear bile.

PubMed

Dutton, Adam J; Hepburn, Cameron; Macdonald, David W

2011-01-01

Farming of animals and plants has recently been considered not merely as a more efficient and plentiful supply of their products but also as a means of protecting wild populations from that trade. Amongst these nascent farming products might be listed bear bile. Bear bile has been exploited by traditional Chinese medicinalists for millennia. Since the 1980s consumers have had the options of: illegal wild gall bladders, bile extracted from caged live bears or the acid synthesised chemically. Despite these alternatives bears continue to be harvested from the wild. In this paper we use stated preference techniques using a random sample of the Chinese population to estimate demand functions for wild bear bile with and without competition from farmed bear bile. We find a willingness to pay considerably more for wild bear bile than farmed. Wild bear bile has low own price elasticity and cross price elasticity with farmed bear bile. The ability of farmed bear bile to reduce demand for wild bear bile is at best limited and, at prevailing prices, may be close to zero or have the opposite effect. The demand functions estimated suggest that the own price elasticity of wild bear bile is lower when competing with farmed bear bile than when it is the only option available. This means that the incumbent product may actually sell more items at a higher price when competing than when alone in the market. This finding may be of broader interest to behavioural economists as we argue that one explanation may be that as product choice increases price has less impact on decision making. For the wildlife farming debate this indicates that at some prices the introduction of farmed competition might increase the demand for the wild product.

Joint pricing and production management: a geometric programming approach with consideration of cubic production cost function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadjadi, Seyed Jafar; Hamidi Hesarsorkh, Aghil; Mohammadi, Mehdi; Bonyadi Naeini, Ali

2015-06-01

Coordination and harmony between different departments of a company can be an important factor in achieving competitive advantage if the company corrects alignment between strategies of different departments. This paper presents an integrated decision model based on recent advances of geometric programming technique. The demand of a product considers as a power function of factors such as product's price, marketing expenditures, and consumer service expenditures. Furthermore, production cost considers as a cubic power function of outputs. The model will be solved by recent advances in convex optimization tools. Finally, the solution procedure is illustrated by numerical example.

Food systems: perspectives on demographics and affluence, food supply and consumption.

PubMed Central

Molitor, G T

1990-01-01

Global population may double by 2020 but the Malthusian specter of rapid population growth outracing slower increases in production will continue to be a false alarm. A vast array of agricultural technologies have the capacity to increase output 10-fold, perhaps as much as 100-fold. Discovery of a sweetener 54,000 times sweeter than sucrose (cane or beet sugar) indicates the magnitude of prodigious increases portended by new technologies. Productive agriculture, however, has become capital intense, limiting its availability in poorer nations. Increased production is the key to low prices and affordable supplies. In a world continuing to face starvation, there is no place for government policies purposely limiting supplies and artificially propping prices at high levels that place life-sustaining food beyond means of the poor. Affluence provides financial wherewithal to secure an adequate diet. Unfortunately, an estimated 25% of the world's population go hungry and face starvation. The specter of starvation may afflict as many as 600 million, and malnutrition, another 150 million by the year 2020. Improving self-sufficiency in these nations will remain a top humanitarian concern. PMID:2401256

Modelling stock order flows with non-homogeneous intensities from high-frequency data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gorshenin, Andrey K.; Korolev, Victor Yu.; Zeifman, Alexander I.; Shorgin, Sergey Ya.; Chertok, Andrey V.; Evstafyev, Artem I.; Korchagin, Alexander Yu.

2013-10-01

A micro-scale model is proposed for the evolution of such information system as the limit order book in financial markets. Within this model, the flows of orders (claims) are described by doubly stochastic Poisson processes taking account of the stochastic character of intensities of buy and sell orders that determine the price discovery mechanism. The proposed multiplicative model of stochastic intensities makes it possible to analyze the characteristics of the order flows as well as the instantaneous proportion of the forces of buyers and sellers, that is, the imbalance process, without modelling the external information background. The proposed model gives the opportunity to link the micro-scale (high-frequency) dynamics of the limit order book with the macro-scale models of stock price processes of the form of subordinated Wiener processes by means of limit theorems of probability theory and hence, to use the normal variance-mean mixture models of the corresponding heavy-tailed distributions. The approach can be useful in different areas with similar properties (e.g., in plasma physics).

77 FR 4070 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-26

... all the option series have the same expiration.\\7\\ The functionality is designed to detect scenarios... designed to prevent incoming orders from automatically executing at potentially erroneous prices. These price check parameter features are designed to help maintain a fair and orderly market. The Exchange is...

Consumption and Response Output as a Function of Unit Price: Manipulation of Cost and Benefit Components

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delmendo, Xeres; Borrero, John C.; Beauchamp, Kenneth L.; Francisco, Monica T.

2009-01-01

We conducted preference assessments with 4 typically developing children to identify potential reinforcers and assessed the reinforcing efficacy of those stimuli. Next, we tested two predictions of economic theory: that overall consumption (reinforcers obtained) would decrease as the unit price (response requirement per reinforcer) increased and…

Household demand for water in Sweden with implications of a potential tax on water use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

HöGlund, Lena

1999-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to estimate empirically the effects of a water tax on water use and on the size and stability of the tax revenues. A tax exceeding value-added tax can be motivated on efficiency grounds when there are environmental external costs of water use and when water is a scarce resource. A household demand function for water is estimated using community level data for 282 (out of 286) Swedish communities studied annually over the period 1980-1992. Static and dynamic demand functions are estimated using panel data methods. The results show a long-run price elasticity of -0.10 in marginal price models and -0.20 in average price models. The findings imply that a tax of 1 Swedish Kronor (SEK) m-3 of water used (corresponding to a 5% increase in the mean average price) would generate ˜600 million SEK in tax revenues per year when levied on all households in Sweden. The water consumption would, however, only be reduced by ˜1%.

The Double-Edged Sword of Pedagogy: Instruction Limits Spontaneous Exploration and Discovery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonawitz, Elizabeth; Shafto, Patrick; Gweon, Hyowon; Goodman, Noah D.; Spelke, Elizabeth; Schulz, Laura

2011-01-01

Motivated by computational analyses, we look at how teaching affects exploration and discovery. In Experiment 1, we investigated children's exploratory play after an adult pedagogically demonstrated a function of a toy, after an interrupted pedagogical demonstration, after a naive adult demonstrated the function, and at baseline. Preschoolers in…

Higher food prices may threaten food security status among American low-income households with children.

PubMed

Zhang, Qi; Jones, Sonya; Ruhm, Christopher J; Andrews, Margaret

2013-10-01

Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience poorer health function and worse academic achievement. To investigate the relation between economic environmental factors and food insecurity among children, we examined the relation between general and specific food prices (fast food, fruits and vegetables, beverages) and risk of low (LFS) and very low food security (VLFS) status among low-income American households with children. Using information for 27,900 child-year observations from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 linked with food prices obtained from the Cost of Living Data of the Council for Community and Economic Research, formerly known as the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers' Association, fixed effects models were estimated within stratified income groups. Higher overall food prices were associated with increased risk of LFS and VLFS (coefficient = 0.617; P < 0.05). Higher fast food and fruit and vegetable prices also contributed to higher risk of food insecurity (coefficient = 0.632, P < 0.01 for fast food; coefficient = 0.879, P < 0.01 for fruits and vegetables). However, increasing beverage prices, including the prices of soft drinks, orange juice, and coffee, had a protective effect on food security status, even when controlling for general food prices. Thus, although food price changes were strongly related to food security status among low-income American households with children, the effects were not uniform across types of food. These relations should be accounted for when implementing policies that change specific food prices.

Estimating the price elasticity of expenditure for prescription drugs in the presence of non-linear price schedules: an illustration from Quebec, Canada.

PubMed

Contoyannis, Paul; Hurley, Jeremiah; Grootendorst, Paul; Jeon, Sung-Hee; Tamblyn, Robyn

2005-09-01

The price elasticity of demand for prescription drugs is a crucial parameter of interest in designing pharmaceutical benefit plans. Estimating the elasticity using micro-data, however, is challenging because insurance coverage that includes deductibles, co-insurance provisions and maximum expenditure limits create a non-linear price schedule, making price endogenous (a function of drug consumption). In this paper we exploit an exogenous change in cost-sharing within the Quebec (Canada) public Pharmacare program to estimate the price elasticity of expenditure for drugs using IV methods. This approach corrects for the endogeneity of price and incorporates the concept of a 'rational' consumer who factors into consumption decisions the price they expect to face at the margin given their expected needs. The IV method is adapted from an approach developed in the public finance literature used to estimate income responses to changes in tax schedules. The instrument is based on the price an individual would face under the new cost-sharing policy if their consumption remained at the pre-policy level. Our preferred specification leads to expenditure elasticities that are in the low range of previous estimates (between -0.12 and -0.16). Naïve OLS estimates are between 1 and 4 times these magnitudes. (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

PubMed

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Selling Complementary Patents: Experimental Investigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bjornstad, David J; Santore, Rudy; McKee, Michael

2010-02-01

Production requiring licensing groups of complementary patents implements a coordination game among patent holders, who can price patents by choosing among combinations of fixed and royalty fees. Summed across patents, these fees become the total producer cost of the package of patents. Royalties, because they function as excise taxes, add to marginal costs, resulting in higher prices and reduced quantities of the downstream product and lower payoffs to the patent holders. Using fixed fees eliminates this inefficiency but yields a more complex coordination game in which there are multiple equilibria, which are very fragile in that small mistakes can leadmore » the downstream firm to not license the technology, resulting in inefficient outcomes. We report on a laboratory market investigation of the efficiency effects of coordinated pricing of patents in a patent pool. We find that pool-like pricing agreements can yield fewer coordination failures in the pricing of complementary patents.« less

Power Laws and Market Crashes ---Empirical Laws on Bursting Bubbles---

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaizoji, T.

In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the statistical properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We selected 1200 stocks traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily stock prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period of the forming of the internet bubble in Japn, and its bursting in the Japanese stock market. We found that the tail of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the ensemble of stock prices in the high value of the price is well described by a power-law distribution, P (S > x) ˜ x^{-α}, with an exponent that moves in the range of 1.09 < α < 1.27. Furthermore, we found that as the power-law exponents α approached unity, the bubbles collapsed. This suggests that Zipf's law for stock prices is a sign that bubbles are going to burst.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

PubMed Central

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

Not Fully Developed Turbulence in the Dow Jones Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trincado, Estrella; Vindel, Jose María

2013-08-01

The shape of the curves relating the scaling exponents of the structure functions to the order of these functions is shown to distinguish the Dow Jones index from other stock market indices. We conclude from the shape differences that the information-loss rate for the Dow Jones index is reduced at smaller time scales, while it grows for other indices. This anomaly is due to the construction of the index, in particular to its dependence on a single market parameter: price. Prices are subject to turbulence bursts, which act against full development of turbulence.

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

An equation of state for the financial markets: connecting order flow to price formation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerig, Austin; Mike, Szabolcs; Doyne Farmer, J.

2006-03-01

Many of the peculiarities of price formation in the financial marketplace can be understood as the result of a few regularities in the placement and removal of trading orders. Based on a large data set from the London Stock Exchange we show that the distribution of prices where people place orders to buy or sell follows a surprisingly simple functional form that depends on the current best prices. In addition, whether or not an order is to buy or sell is described by a long-memory process, and the cancellation of orders can be described by a few simple rules. When these results are combined, simply by following the rules of the continuous double auction, the resulting simulation model produces good predictions for the distribution of price changes and transaction costs without any adjustment of parameters. We use the model to empirically derive equations of state relating order flow and the statistical properties of prices. In contrast to previous conjectures, our results demonstrate that these distributions are not universal, but rather depend on parameters of individual markets. They also show that factors other than supply and demand play an important role in price formation.

Children's Conception of Price as a Function of Questions Asked.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dahlgren, Lars Owe

An experiment concerning children's conceptions of price was conducted to investigate the influence of the context of a problem on its apprehension. A total of 120 children of several age groups (nursery school, grades 2, 4, and 6) were interviewed individually. An initial question was asked ("Why does a bun cost about one Swedish…

26 CFR 1.482-3 - Methods to determine taxable income in connection with a transfer of tangible property.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... intangible property to add substantial value to the tangible goods. (2) Determination of arm's length price... terms or economic conditions could materially affect the amount charged in an uncontrolled transaction... transactions. The resale price method measures the value of functions performed, and is ordinarily used in...

77 FR 35446 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BATS Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-13

..., maintain, and enforce certain written policies and procedures reasonably designed to comply with the rule...'') (amending Rules 201 and 200 of Regulation SHO to adopt a short sale price test restriction and ``short...'' functionality in connection with the short sale price test restriction; see also, Rule 11.13, which codifies in...

Dynamic reserve selection: Optimal land retention with land-price feedbacks

Treesearch

Sandor F. Toth; Robert G. Haight; Luke W. Rogers

2011-01-01

Urban growth compromises open space and ecosystem functions. To mitigate the negative effects, some agencies use reserve selection models to identify conservation sites for purchase or retention. Existing models assume that conservation has no impact on nearby land prices. We propose a new integer program that relaxes this assumption via adaptive cost coefficients. Our...

The speculative shadow over timberland values in the U.S. South

Treesearch

David N. Wear; David H. Newman

2004-01-01

In well-functioning markets, forestland prices capture a wealth of information regarding current as well as anticipated uses of land and resources contained on it. They reflect the valuation of current uses and incorporate information regarding productivity, standing timber capital, and the effects of taxes that apply to land and production. Land prices are speculative...

Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

2012-01-01

The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

A Regression Study of Demand, Cost and Pricing Public Library Circulation Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratton, Peter J.

This paper examines three aspects of the public library's circulation service: (1) a demand function for the service is estimated; (2) a long-run unit circulation cost curve is developed; and (3) using the economist's notion of "efficiency," a general model for the pricing of the circulation service is presented. The estimated demand…

Extraction of consensus protein patterns in regions containing non-proline cis peptide bonds and their functional assessment.

PubMed

Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Exarchos, Themis P; Rigas, Georgios; Papaloukas, Costas; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

2011-05-10

In peptides and proteins, only a small percentile of peptide bonds adopts the cis configuration. Especially in the case of amide peptide bonds, the amount of cis conformations is quite limited thus hampering systematic studies, until recently. However, lately the emerging population of databases with more 3D structures of proteins has produced a considerable number of sequences containing non-proline cis formations (cis-nonPro). In our work, we extract regular expression-type patterns that are descriptive of regions surrounding the cis-nonPro formations. For this purpose, three types of pattern discovery are performed: i) exact pattern discovery, ii) pattern discovery using a chemical equivalency set, and iii) pattern discovery using a structural equivalency set. Afterwards, using each pattern as predicate, we search the Eukaryotic Linear Motif (ELM) resource to identify potential functional implications of regions with cis-nonPro peptide bonds. The patterns extracted from each type of pattern discovery are further employed, in order to formulate a pattern-based classifier, which is used to discriminate between cis-nonPro and trans-nonPro formations. In terms of functional implications, we observe a significant association of cis-nonPro peptide bonds towards ligand/binding functionalities. As for the pattern-based classification scheme, the highest results were obtained using the structural equivalency set, which yielded 70% accuracy, 77% sensitivity and 63% specificity.

Optogenetic Approaches to Drug Discovery in Neuroscience and Beyond.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongkang; Cohen, Adam E

2017-07-01

Recent advances in optogenetics have opened new routes to drug discovery, particularly in neuroscience. Physiological cellular assays probe functional phenotypes that connect genomic data to patient health. Optogenetic tools, in particular tools for all-optical electrophysiology, now provide a means to probe cellular disease models with unprecedented throughput and information content. These techniques promise to identify functional phenotypes associated with disease states and to identify compounds that improve cellular function regardless of whether the compound acts directly on a target or through a bypass mechanism. This review discusses opportunities and unresolved challenges in applying optogenetic techniques throughout the discovery pipeline - from target identification and validation, to target-based and phenotypic screens, to clinical trials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimality of cycle time and inventory decisions in a two echelon inventory system with exponential price dependent demand under credit period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krugon, Seelam; Nagaraju, Dega

2017-05-01

This work describes and proposes an two echelon inventory system under supply chain, where the manufacturer offers credit period to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The model is framed as demand is expressed as exponential function of retailer’s unit selling price. Mathematical model is framed to demonstrate the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. The major objective of the paper is to provide trade credit concept from the manufacturer to the retailer with exponential price dependent demand. The retailer would like to delay the payments of the manufacturer. At the first stage retailer and manufacturer expressions are expressed with the functions of ordering cost, carrying cost, transportation cost. In second stage combining of the manufacturer and retailer expressions are expressed. A MATLAB program is written to derive the optimality of cycle time, retailer replenishment quantity, number of shipments, and total relevant cost of the supply chain. From the optimality criteria derived managerial insights can be made. From the research findings, it is evident that the total cost of the supply chain is decreased with the increase in credit period under exponential price dependent demand. To analyse the influence of the model parameters, parametric analysis is also done by taking with help of numerical example.

Cosmetic surgery procedures as luxury goods: measuring price and demand in facial plastic surgery.

PubMed

Alsarraf, Ramsey; Alsarraf, Nicole W; Larrabee, Wayne F; Johnson, Calvin M

2002-01-01

To evaluate the relationship between cosmetic facial plastic surgery procedure price and demand, and to test the hypothesis that these procedures function as luxury goods in the marketplace, with an upward-sloping demand curve. Data were derived from a survey that was sent to every (N = 1727) active fellow, member, or associate of the American Academy of Facial Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, assessing the costs and frequency of 4 common cosmetic facial plastic surgery procedures (face-lift, brow-lift, blepharoplasty, and rhinoplasty) for 1999 and 1989. An economic analysis was performed to assess the relationship of price and demand for these procedures. A significant association was found between increasing surgeons' fees and total charges for cosmetic facial plastic surgery procedures and increasing demand for these procedures, as measured by their annual frequency (P

A precursor of market crashes: Empirical laws of Japan's internet bubble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaizoji, T.

2006-03-01

In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention on the relative price defined as X(t) = S(t)/S(0), where S(0), is the stock price for an onset time of the bubble. We selected approximately 3200 stocks traded on the Japanese Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily relative prices for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period in which internet Bubble formed and crashed in the Japanese stock market. We found that the upper tail of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the ensemble of the relative prices in the high value of the price is well described by a power-law distribution, P(S>x) ˜x-α , with an exponent that moves over time. Furthermore we found that as the power-law exponents α approached two, the bubble burst. It is reasonable to suppose that it indicates that internet bubble is about to burst.

The pricing of credit default swaps under a generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Xinjiang; Chen, Wenting

2014-06-01

In this paper, we consider the pricing of the CDS (credit default swap) under a GMFBM (generalized mixed fractional Brownian motion) model. As the name suggests, the GMFBM model is indeed a generalization of all the FBM (fractional Brownian motion) models used in the literature, and is proved to be able to effectively capture the long-range dependence of the stock returns. To develop the pricing mechanics of the CDS, we firstly derive a sufficient condition for the market modeled under the GMFBM to be arbitrage free. Then under the risk-neutral assumption, the CDS is fairly priced by investigating the two legs of the cash flow involved. The price we obtained involves elementary functions only, and can be easily implemented for practical purpose. Finally, based on numerical experiments, we analyze quantitatively the impacts of different parameters on the prices of the CDS. Interestingly, in comparison with all the other FBM models documented in the literature, the results produced from the GMFBM model are in a better agreement with those calculated from the classical Black-Scholes model.

Implications of raising cigarette excise taxes in Peru.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Rozada, Martin; Ramos-Carbajales, Alejandro

2016-10-01

To assess how raising cigarette excise taxes in Peru might impact cigarette consumption, and to determine if higher taxes would be regressive. Total demand price elasticity was estimated by income groups using two datasets: quarterly time-series data from 1993 - 2012 and data from a cross-sectional survey of income and expenses conducted in 2008 - 2009 . A functional form of the cigarette demand in Peru was specified using the quarterly data set, and the demand price elasticity was estimated for the short and long run. Using the second data set and Deaton methodology, the implementation of elasticity estimation and by groups' elasticity was done in a two-step procedure. Demand price elasticity was -0.7, implying that a 10% price increase via a new tax would reduce consumption by 7%. Demand price elasticity estimations by income group suggested that poorer families are not more price sensitive than richer ones, which implies that increasing cigarette taxes could be regressive. Increasing cigarette taxes is the most efficient policy for inducing a reduction in smoking. However, in the case of Peru, an increase in cigarette taxes could be regressive.

Transition from lognormal to χ2-superstatistics for financial time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Dan; Beck, Christian

2016-07-01

Share price returns on different time scales can be well modelled by a superstatistical dynamics. Here we provide an investigation which type of superstatistics is most suitable to properly describe share price dynamics on various time scales. It is shown that while χ2-superstatistics works well on a time scale of days, on a much smaller time scale of minutes the price changes are better described by lognormal superstatistics. The system dynamics thus exhibits a transition from lognormal to χ2 superstatistics as a function of time scale. We discuss a more general model interpolating between both statistics which fits the observed data very well. We also present results on correlation functions of the extracted superstatistical volatility parameter, which exhibits exponential decay for returns on large time scales, whereas for returns on small time scales there are long-range correlations and power-law decay.

Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu; Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk; Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn

2013-06-15

In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solutionmore » to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.« less

On Reverse Stackelberg Game and Optimal Mean Field Control for a Large Population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Sen; Zhang, Wei; Lian, Jianming

This paper studies a multi-stage pricing problem for a large population of thermostatically controlled loads. The problem is formulated as a reverse Stackelberg game that involves a mean field game in the hierarchy of decision making. In particular, in the higher level, a coordinator needs to design a pricing function to motivate individual agents to maximize the social welfare. In the lower level, the individual utility maximization problem of each agent forms a mean field game coupled through the pricing function that depends on the average of the population control/state. We derive the solution to the reverse Stackelberg game bymore » connecting it to a team problem and the competitive equilibrium, and we show that this solution corresponds to the optimal mean field control that maximizes the social welfare. Realistic simulations are presented to validate the proposed methods.« less

Is irrigation water price an effective leverage for water management? An empirical study in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qing; Wu, Feng; Zhang, Qian

Serious water scarcity, low water-use efficiency, and over-exploitation of underground water have hindered socio-economic development and led to environmental degradation in the Heihe River basin, northwestern China. Price leveraging is an important tool in water demand management, and it is considered to be effective in promoting water conservation and improving water use efficiency on the premise that water demand is elastic. In the present study, we examine whether price is an effective and applicable instrument for restraining the increasing demand for agricultural irrigation water in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin and how will it affect farmers' decisions on irrigation and crop structure. Specifically, the price elasticity of agricultural water demand was estimated based on the irrigation water demand function. The results show that the agricultural irrigation water price is statistically significant, but its elasticity is very low under current low water price. Price leverage cannot play a significant role in the context of the current pricing regime and farmers' response to price increase is intrinsically weak. To create incentives for conserving water and improving irrigation efficiency, price mechanism should be accompanied with clearly defined and legally enforceable water rights, restricted water quota measures, and reform of water authorities and water-user associations. Furthermore, increases of surface irrigation water price may lead to the over-withdrawal of groundwater, consequently, effective groundwater licensing and levying must take place to limit the total volume of groundwater withdrawal. In all, improving irrigation efficiency through better management and the adoption of water-saving technologies is the ultimate way to deal with the challenges facing irrigated agriculture in the middle reaches of the Heihe River basin.

Pharmaceutical patents and price controls.

PubMed

Vogel, Ronald J

2002-07-01

Since 1995, every member-country of the World Trade Organization (WTO) has agreed to honor a 20-year patent-life, from the date of a pharmaceutical company's application for the patent, in the country of application. Patent protection retards competitive imitation of an invented product. This kind of protection is particularly important for pharmaceuticals, because pharmaceuticals that are not derived from biotechnology can be imitated easily and inexpensively. The economic function of a patent is to allow a period of above-normal profits for a technically and commercially successful product; these profits stimulate further investment and invention. However, direct price controls, or permutations of direct price controls on pharmaceutical compounds, can fully or partially circumvent the economic intent of patent agreements. This paper formulates an economic model that takes into account demand and cost/supply dimensions of the output and pricing of a hypothetical pharmaceutical, extrapolating about the respective effects of direct price controls and lack of price controls, and describing permutations of direct price controls in different countries. The pharmaceutical industry depends on patents to fund the development and introduction of new products. A country can indirectly circumvent the economic logic of a patent by using price controls, but it cannot shift the economic costs of such a policy to another country that does not use price controls. Instead, less money is available for research and development (R&D). Pharmaceutical price controls allow some countries to avoid the constraints of patent agreements without breaking those agreements outright. This, in turn, reduces the amount of profit available for further R&D, which is a detriment to consumers worldwide.

A new perspective on Quantum Finance using the Black-Scholes pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieng, Lamine

2007-03-01

Options are known to be divided into two types, the first type is called a call option and the second type is called a put option and these options are offered to stock holders in order to hedge their positions against risky fluctuations of the stock price. It is important to mention that due to fluctuations of the stock price, options can be found sometimes deep in the money, at the money and out of the money. A deep in the money option is described when the option's holder has a positive expected payoff, at the money option is when the option's holder has a zero expected payoff and an out of the money option is when the payoff is negative. In this work, we will assume the stock price to be described by the well known Black-Scholes model or sometimes called the multiplicative model. Using Ito calculus, Martingale and supermartingale theories, we investigated the Black-Scholes pricing equation at the money (X(stock price)= K (strike price)) when the expected payoff of the options holder is zero. We also hedged the Black-Scholes pricing equation in the limit when delta is zero to obtain the non-relativistic time independent Schroedinger equation in quantum mechanics. We compared the two equations and found the diffusion constant to be a function of the stock price in contrast to the Bachelier model we have worked on earlier. We solved the Schroedinger equation and found a dependence between interest rate, volatility and strike price at the money.

Estimated effect of alcohol pricing policies on health and health economic outcomes in England: an epidemiological model.

PubMed

Purshouse, Robin C; Meier, Petra S; Brennan, Alan; Taylor, Karl B; Rafia, Rachid

2010-04-17

Although pricing policies for alcohol are known to be effective, little is known about how specific interventions affect health-care costs and health-related quality-of-life outcomes for different types of drinkers. We assessed effects of alcohol pricing and promotion policy options in various population subgroups. We built an epidemiological mathematical model to appraise 18 pricing policies, with English data from the Expenditure and Food Survey and the General Household Survey for average and peak alcohol consumption. We used results from econometric analyses (256 own-price and cross-price elasticity estimates) to estimate effects of policies on alcohol consumption. We applied risk functions from systemic reviews and meta-analyses, or derived from attributable fractions, to model the effect of consumption changes on mortality and disease prevalence for 47 illnesses. General price increases were effective for reduction of consumption, health-care costs, and health-related quality of life losses in all population subgroups. Minimum pricing policies can maintain this level of effectiveness for harmful drinkers while reducing effects on consumer spending for moderate drinkers. Total bans of supermarket and off-license discounting are effective but banning only large discounts has little effect. Young adult drinkers aged 18-24 years are especially affected by policies that raise prices in pubs and bars. Minimum pricing policies and discounting restrictions might warrant further consideration because both strategies are estimated to reduce alcohol consumption, and related health harms and costs, with drinker spending increases targeting those who incur most harm. Policy Research Programme, UK Department of Health. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Smokeless tobacco product prices and taxation in Bangladesh: findings from the International Tobacco Control Survey.

PubMed

Nargis, N; Hussain, A K M G; Fong, G T

2014-12-01

Smokeless tobacco use occupies a significant portion of overall tobacco consumption in Bangladesh. Yet very little is known about the effectiveness of tax and price policy in controlling the use of smokeless tobacco use in the country. The paper examines the price distribution of various smoked (cigarette, bidi) and smokeless tobacco products (zarda, gul) using the univariate Epanechnikov kernel density function. It estimates the own and cross price elasticity of demand for the most widely used smokeless tobacco product zarda using two-step regression analysis. The analysis is based on data from the ITC Bangladesh Wave 3 Survey which is a nationally representative cohort survey of tobacco users and nonusers conducted in in Bangladesh during 2011-12. The price elasticity of lower price brands of zarda is estimated at -0.64 and of higher priced brands at -0.39, and the cross price elasticity of zarda with respect to cigarette price at 0.35. The tax increase on smokeless tobacco needs to be greater than the tax increase on smoked tobacco to bridge the wide price differential between the two types of products that currently encourages downward substitution from smoked to smokeless tobacco and discourages quitting behavior. This paper argues that increasing tax on smokeless tobacco simultaneously with the tax increase on smoked tobacco can have significant negative impact on the prevalence of smokeless tobacco use in Bangladesh. Finally, a specific excise system replacing the existing ad valorem excise tax can substantially contribute to the revenue collection performance from smokeless tobacco products.

Relationship between financial speculation and food prices or price volatility: applying the principles of evidence-based medicine to current debates in Germany.

PubMed

Bozorgmehr, Kayvan; Gabrysch, Sabine; Müller, Olaf; Neuhann, Florian; Jordan, Irmgard; Knipper, Michael; Razum, Oliver

2013-10-16

There is an unresolved debate about the potential effects of financial speculation on food prices and price volatility. Germany's largest financial institution and leading global investment bank recently decided to continue investing in agricultural commodities, stating that there is little empirical evidence to support the notion that the growth of agricultural-based financial products has caused price increases or volatility. The statement is supported by a recently published literature review, which concludes that financial speculation does not have an adverse effect on the functioning of the agricultural commodities market. As public health professionals concerned with global food insecurity, we have appraised the methodological quality of the review using a validated and reliable appraisal tool. The appraisal revealed major shortcomings in the methodological quality of the review. These were particularly related to intransparencies in the search strategy and in the selection/presentation of studies and findings; the neglect of the possibility of publication bias; a lack of objective or rigorous criteria for assessing the scientific quality of included studies and for the formulation of conclusions. Based on the results of our appraisal, we conclude that it is not justified to reject the hypothesis that financial speculation might have adverse effects on food prices/price volatility. We hope to initiate reflections about scientific standards beyond the boundaries of disciplines and call for high quality, rigorous systematic reviews on the effects of financial speculation on food prices or price volatility.

Price-volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Ying; Zhuang, Xin-tian; Liu, Zhi-ying

2012-06-01

An empirical research on Chinese stock markets is conducted using statistical tools. First, the multifractality of stock price return series, ri(ri=ln(Pt+1)-ln(Pt)) and trading volume variation series, vi(vi=ln(Vt+1)-ln(Vt)) is confirmed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. Furthermore, a multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between stock price return and trading volume variation in Chinese stock markets is also conducted. It is shown that the cross relationship between them is also found to be multifractal. Second, the cross-correlation between stock price Pi and trading volume Vi is empirically studied using cross-correlation function and detrended cross-correlation analysis. It is found that both Shanghai stock market and Shenzhen stock market show pronounced long-range cross-correlations between stock price and trading volume. Third, a composite index R based on price and trading volume is introduced. Compared with stock price return series ri and trading volume variation series vi, R variation series not only remain the characteristics of original series but also demonstrate the relative correlation between stock price and trading volume. Finally, we analyze the multifractal characteristics of R variation series before and after three financial events in China (namely, Price Limits, Reform of Non-tradable Shares and financial crisis in 2008) in the whole period of sample to study the changes of stock market fluctuation and financial risk. It is found that the empirical results verified the validity of R.

The Price Elasticity of Specialty Drug Use: Evidence from Cancer Patients in Medicare Part D.

PubMed

Jung, Jeah Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

2017-12-01

Specialty drugs can bring substantial benefits to patients with debilitating conditions, such as cancer, but their costs are very high. Insurers/payers have increased patient cost-sharing for specialty drugs to manage specialty drug spending. We utilized Medicare Part D plan formulary data to create the initial price (cost-sharing in the initial coverage phase in Part D), and estimated the total demand (both on- and off-label uses) for specialty cancer drugs among elderly Medicare Part D enrollees with no low-income subsidies (non-LIS) as a function of the initial price. We corrected for potential endogeneity associated with plan choice by instrumenting the initial price of specialty cancer drugs with the initial prices of specialty drugs in unrelated classes. We report three findings. First, we found that elderly non-LIS beneficiaries with cancer were less likely to use a Part D specialty cancer drug when the initial price was high: the overall price elasticity of specialty cancer drug spending ranged between -0.72 and -0.75. Second, the price effect in Part D specialty cancer drug use was not significant among newly diagnosed patients. Finally, we found that use of Part B-covered cancer drugs was not responsive to the Part D specialty cancer drug price. As the demand for costly specialty drugs grows, it will be important to identify clinical circumstances where specialty drugs can be valuable and ensure access to high-value treatments.

The pricing effect of the common pattern in firm-level idiosyncratic volatility: Evidence from A-Share stocks of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Zhi; Shu, Tengjia; Yin, Libo

2018-05-01

Inspired by Herskovic et al. (2016), we investigate the pricing effect of the firm-level common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) in China's A-Share market. Return tests indicate that lower CIV risk loadings bring higher returns significantly, while the pricing function of market volatility (MV) is inconsistent. Strategy that goes long the highest CIV-beta quintile and short the lowest CIV-beta quintile brings an annualized average return of 5%-7%. Our findings supplement Herskovic et al. (2016) by confirming a significantly negative relationship between CIV and stock returns in a developing market.

The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

2017-03-01

The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

Gas-kinetic theory and Boltzmann equation of share price within an equilibrium market hypothesis and ad hoc strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, M.

2000-09-01

Recent observations have indicated that the traditional equilibrium market hypothesis (EMH; also known as Efficient Market Hypothesis) is unrealistic. It is shown here that it is the analog of a Boltzmann equation in physics, thus having some bad properties of mean-field approximations like a Gaussian distribution of price fluctuations. A kinetic theory for prices can be simply derived, considering in a first approach that market actors have all identical relaxation times, and solved within a Chapman-Enskog like formalism. In closing the set of equations, (i) an equation of state with a pressure and (ii) the equilibrium (isothermal) equation for the price (taken as the order parameter) of a stock as a function of the volume of money available are obtained.

Analytic Approximations to the Free Boundary and Multi-dimensional Problems in Financial Derivatives Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lau, Chun Sing

This thesis studies two types of problems in financial derivatives pricing. The first type is the free boundary problem, which can be formulated as a partial differential equation (PDE) subject to a set of free boundary condition. Although the functional form of the free boundary condition is given explicitly, the location of the free boundary is unknown and can only be determined implicitly by imposing continuity conditions on the solution. Two specific problems are studied in details, namely the valuation of fixed-rate mortgages and CEV American options. The second type is the multi-dimensional problem, which involves multiple correlated stochastic variables and their governing PDE. One typical problem we focus on is the valuation of basket-spread options, whose underlying asset prices are driven by correlated geometric Brownian motions (GBMs). Analytic approximate solutions are derived for each of these three problems. For each of the two free boundary problems, we propose a parametric moving boundary to approximate the unknown free boundary, so that the original problem transforms into a moving boundary problem which can be solved analytically. The governing parameter of the moving boundary is determined by imposing the first derivative continuity condition on the solution. The analytic form of the solution allows the price and the hedging parameters to be computed very efficiently. When compared against the benchmark finite-difference method, the computational time is significantly reduced without compromising the accuracy. The multi-stage scheme further allows the approximate results to systematically converge to the benchmark results as one recasts the moving boundary into a piecewise smooth continuous function. For the multi-dimensional problem, we generalize the Kirk (1995) approximate two-asset spread option formula to the case of multi-asset basket-spread option. Since the final formula is in closed form, all the hedging parameters can also be derived in closed form. Numerical examples demonstrate that the pricing and hedging errors are in general less than 1% relative to the benchmark prices obtained by numerical integration or Monte Carlo simulation. By exploiting an explicit relationship between the option price and the underlying probability distribution, we further derive an approximate distribution function for the general basket-spread variable. It can be used to approximate the transition probability distribution of any linear combination of correlated GBMs. Finally, an implicit perturbation is applied to reduce the pricing errors by factors of up to 100. When compared against the existing methods, the basket-spread option formula coupled with the implicit perturbation turns out to be one of the most robust and accurate approximation methods.

Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

Particle swarm optimization with recombination and dynamic linkage discovery.

PubMed

Chen, Ying-Ping; Peng, Wen-Chih; Jian, Ming-Chung

2007-12-01

In this paper, we try to improve the performance of the particle swarm optimizer by incorporating the linkage concept, which is an essential mechanism in genetic algorithms, and design a new linkage identification technique called dynamic linkage discovery to address the linkage problem in real-parameter optimization problems. Dynamic linkage discovery is a costless and effective linkage recognition technique that adapts the linkage configuration by employing only the selection operator without extra judging criteria irrelevant to the objective function. Moreover, a recombination operator that utilizes the discovered linkage configuration to promote the cooperation of particle swarm optimizer and dynamic linkage discovery is accordingly developed. By integrating the particle swarm optimizer, dynamic linkage discovery, and recombination operator, we propose a new hybridization of optimization methodologies called particle swarm optimization with recombination and dynamic linkage discovery (PSO-RDL). In order to study the capability of PSO-RDL, numerical experiments were conducted on a set of benchmark functions as well as on an important real-world application. The benchmark functions used in this paper were proposed in the 2005 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Congress on Evolutionary Computation. The experimental results on the benchmark functions indicate that PSO-RDL can provide a level of performance comparable to that given by other advanced optimization techniques. In addition to the benchmark, PSO-RDL was also used to solve the economic dispatch (ED) problem for power systems, which is a real-world problem and highly constrained. The results indicate that PSO-RDL can successfully solve the ED problem for the three-unit power system and obtain the currently known best solution for the 40-unit system.

Morphine Tolerance as a Function of Ratio Schedule: Response Requirement or Unit Price?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Christine; Sigmon, Stacey C.; Pitts, Raymond C.; Dykstra, Linda A.

2005-01-01

Key pecking by 3 pigeons was maintained by a multiple fixed-ratio 10, fixed-ratio 30, fixed-ratio 90 schedule of food presentation. Components differed with respect to amount of reinforcement, such that the unit price was 10 responses per 1-s access to food. Acute administration of morphine, "l"-methadone, and cocaine dose-dependently decreased…

Employee Turnover and Post Decision Accommodation Processes.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-11-01

Turnover consequences Job expectations Individual differences Behavioral cues Job performance Organizational characteristics Job attitudes Attribution theory...and Meglino, 1979; Muchinsky and Tuttle, 1979; Pettman, 1973; Porter and Steers, 1973; Price, 1977; Schuh, 1967; Stoikov and Raimon, 1968; Vroom , 1964...Simon, 1958; Vroom , 1964; Price, 1977; Mobley, 1977). Although the details of the models differ, turnover is generally thought to be a function of

The value of urban tree cover: A hedonic property price model in Ramsey and Dakota Counties, Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

Heather Sander; Stephen Polasky; Robert. Haight

2010-01-01

Urban tree cover benefits communities. These benefits' economic values, however, are poorly recognized and often ignored by landowners and planners. We use hedonic property price modeling to estimate urban tree cover's value in Dakota and Ramsey Counties, MN, USA, predicting housing value as a function of structural, neighborhood, and environmental variables...

A fortran program for Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery sequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Davis, J.C.

1993-01-01

We have developed a program for performing Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery histories. A synthetic parent population of fields is generated as a finite sample from a distribution of specified form. The discovery sequence then is simulated by sampling without replacement from this parent population in accordance with a probabilistic discovery process model. The program computes a chi-squared deviation between synthetic and actual discovery sequences as a function of the parameters of the discovery process model, the number of fields in the parent population, and the distributional parameters of the parent population. The program employs the three-parameter log gamma model for the distribution of field sizes and employs a two-parameter discovery process model, allowing the simulation of a wide range of scenarios. ?? 1993.

Pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide: a novel peptide with protean implications.

PubMed

Pisegna, Joseph R; Oh, David S

2007-02-01

The purpose of this review is to highlight the importance of pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide in physiological processes and to describe how this peptide is becoming increasingly recognized as having a major role in the body. Since its discovery in 1989, investigators have sought to determine the site of biological activity and the function of pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide in maintaining homeostasis. Since its discovery, pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide appears to play an important role in the regulation of processes within the central nervous system and gastrointestinal tract, as well in reproductive biology. Pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide has been shown to regulate tumor cell growth and to regulate immune function through its effects on T lympocytes. These discoveries suggest the importance of pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide in neuronal development, neuronal function, gastrointestinal tract function and reproduction. Future studies will examine more closely the role of pituitary adenylate cyclase-activating polypeptide in regulation of malignantly transformed cells, as well as in regulation of immune function.

Neo-classical theory of competition or Adam Smith's hand as mathematized ideology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2001-10-01

Orthodox economic theory (utility maximization, rational agents, efficient markets in equilibrium) is based on arbitrarily postulated, nonempiric notions. The disagreement between economic reality and a key feature of neo-classical economic theory was criticized empirically by Osborne. I show that the orthodox theory is internally self-inconsistent for the very reason suggested by Osborne: lack of invertibility of demand and supply as functions of price to obtain price as functions of supply and demand. The reason for the noninvertibililty arises from nonintegrable excess demand dynamics, a feature of their theory completely ignored by economists.

Persistence Probability Analyzed on the Taiwan STOCK Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, I.-Chun; Chen, Hung-Jung; Tseng, Hsen-Che

We report a numerical study of the Taiwan stock market, in which we used three data sources: the daily Taiwan stock exchange index (TAIEX) from January 1983 to May 2006, the daily OTC index from January 1995 to May 2006, and the one-min intraday data from February 2000 to December 2003. Our study is based on numerical estimates of persistence exponent θp, Hurst exponent H2, and fluctuation exponent h2. We also discuss the results concerning persistence probability P(t), qth-order price-price correlation function Gq(t), and qth-order normalized fluctuation function fq(t) among these indices.

Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reiter, G.

1986-01-01

Program simulates constant elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function. CES function used by economic analysts to examine production costs as well as uncertainties in production. User provides such input parameters as price of labor, price of capital, and dispersion levels. CES minimizes expected cost to produce capital-uncertainty pair. By varying capital-value input, one obtains series of capital-uncertainty pairs. Capital-uncertainty pairs then used to generate several cost curves. CES program menu driven and features specific print menu for examining selected output curves. Program written in BASIC for interactive execution and implemented on IBM PC-series computer.

Rational Drug Discovery of HCV Helicase Inhibitor: Improved Docking Accuracy with Multiple Seeding in AutoDock Vina and In Situ Minimization.

PubMed

Lim, See K; Othman, Rozana; Yusof, Rohana; Heh, Choon H

2017-01-01

Hepatitis C is a significant cause for end-stage liver diseases and liver transplantation which affects approximately 3% of the global populations. Despite the current several direct antiviral agents in the treatment of Hepatitis C, the standard treatment for HCV infection is accompanied by several drawbacks, such as adverse side effects, high pricing of medications and the rapid emerging rate of resistant HCV variants. To discover potential inhibitors for HCV helicase through an optimized in silico approach. In this study, a homology model (HCV Genotype 3 helicase) was used as the target and screened through a benzopyran-based virtual library. Multiple-seedings of AutoDock Vina and in situ minimization were to account for the non-deterministic nature of AutoDock Vina search algorithm and binding site flexibility, respectively. ADME/T and interaction analyses were also done on the top hits via FAFDRUG3 web server and Discovery Studio 4.5. This study involved the development of an improved flow for virtual screening via implemention of multiple-seeding screening approach and in situ minimization. With the new docking protocol, the redocked standards have shown better RMSD value in reference to their native conformations. Ten benzopyran-like compounds with satisfactory physicochemical properties were discovered to be potential inhibitors of HCV helicase. ZINC38649350 was identified as the most potential inhibitor. Ten potential HCV helicase inhibitors were discovered via a new docking optimization protocol with better docking accuracy. These findings could contribute to the discovery of novel HCV antivirals and serve as an alternative approach of in silico rational drug discovery. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Novel Pieces for the Emerging Picture of Sulfoximines in Drug Discovery: Synthesis and Evaluation of Sulfoximine Analogues of Marketed Drugs and Advanced Clinical Candidates.

PubMed

Sirvent, Juan Alberto; Lücking, Ulrich

2017-04-06

Sulfoximines have gained considerable recognition as an important structural motif in drug discovery of late. In particular, the clinical kinase inhibitors for the treatment of cancer, roniciclib (pan-CDK inhibitor), BAY 1143572 (P-TEFb inhibitor), and AZD 6738 (ATR inhibitor), have recently drawn considerable attention. Whilst the interest in this underrepresented functional group in drug discovery is clearly on the rise, there remains an incomplete understanding of the medicinal-chemistry-relevant properties of sulfoximines. Herein we report the synthesis and in vitro characterization of a variety of sulfoximine analogues of marketed drugs and advanced clinical candidates to gain a better understanding of this neglected functional group and its potential in drug discovery. © 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Integrating economic parameters into genetic selection for Large White pigs.

PubMed

Dube, Bekezela; Mulugeta, Sendros D; Dzama, Kennedy

2013-08-01

The objective of the study was to integrate economic parameters into genetic selection for sow productivity, growth performance and carcass characteristics in South African Large White pigs. Simulation models for sow productivity and terminal production systems were performed based on a hypothetical 100-sow herd, to derive economic values for the economically relevant traits. The traits included in the study were number born alive (NBA), 21-day litter size (D21LS), 21-day litter weight (D21LWT), average daily gain (ADG), feed conversion ratio (FCR), age at slaughter (AGES), dressing percentage (DRESS), lean content (LEAN) and backfat thickness (BFAT). Growth of a pig was described by the Gompertz growth function, while feed intake was derived from the nutrient requirements of pigs at the respective ages. Partial budgeting and partial differentiation of the profit function were used to derive economic values, which were defined as the change in profit per unit genetic change in a given trait. The respective economic values (ZAR) were: 61.26, 38.02, 210.15, 33.34, -21.81, -68.18, 5.78, 4.69 and -1.48. These economic values indicated the direction and emphases of selection, and were sensitive to changes in feed prices and marketing prices for carcasses and maiden gilts. Economic values for NBA, D21LS, DRESS and LEAN decreased with increasing feed prices, suggesting a point where genetic improvement would be a loss, if feed prices continued to increase. The economic values for DRESS and LEAN increased as the marketing prices for carcasses increased, while the economic value for BFAT was not sensitive to changes in all prices. Reductions in economic values can be counterbalanced by simultaneous increases in marketing prices of carcasses and maiden gilts. Economic values facilitate genetic improvement by translating it to proportionate profitability. Breeders should, however, continually recalculate economic values to place the most appropriate emphases on the respective traits during genetic selection.

The economics of the law of effect.

PubMed Central

Collier, G H; Johnson, D F; Hill, W L; Kaufman, L W

1986-01-01

A corollary of the law of effect predicts that the larger the reinforcement, the greater the rate of responding. However, an animal must eat more small portions than large portions to obtain the same daily intake, and one would predict, therefore, that when eating smaller portions an efficient animal would eat less (conserving time and energy) and/or respond faster (conserving time). The latter of these predictions was supported by the present experiments with free-feeding rats for which portion size (pellet size or duration of feeder presentation) and portion price within meals were varied. Response rate was a function of the unit price (responses/g) of food: Rats responded faster when portions were smaller or when prices were higher. Meal size and frequency were relatively unaffected by unit price, but were influenced by the price of meal initiation. The results are discussed in relation to the economic differences between traditional operant and free-feeding paradigms and to both traditional and more recent formulations of the law of effect. PMID:3760748

[Trends of tobacco demand in Mexico: 1992-1998].

PubMed

Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Carreón-Rodríguez, Víctor Gerardo; Knaul, Felicia; López-Antuñano, Francisco Javier; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio

2002-01-01

This paper aims at describing the behavior of tobacco's demand in Mexico across four one-year periods: 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998, as well as to estimate a cigarette demand function. A cross-sectional study with longitudinal analysis was conducted. Information sources were the Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso y Gasto de los Hogares (ENIGH) (National Survey of Household Income and Spending) (NHSIS) and the tobacco pack prices reported by the Procuraduría Federal del Consumidor (Profeco) (Federal Office of Consumer's Protection) (FOCP). Spending, income, and prices were deflated to 1994 prices; the population was stratified into quintiles of real income, by rural and urban areas. Indicators of daily consumption of cigarettes and packs were constructed and prices per pack calculated. Adjusted prevalence figures were estimated. Logistic and linear regression models were used for statistical inference; a cigarette demand function was estimated using multivariate logistic regression, to find socioeconomic determinants of cigarette consumption. The adjusted prevalence of household tobacco spending fell from 22.4 to 9.9% between 1992 and 1998. Households allocated more than 4% of their income to tobacco consumption. A trend between income level and cigarette spending was observed, with the first quintile (the poorest population) allocated a greater share of their income than higher quintiles. The average daily consumption of cigarettes increased from 7.5 to 9.8 between 1992 and 1998. It was estimated that 90% of "smoker homes" consumed up to one package per day. The proportion of non-filter cigarettes increased from 0.4 to 4.8% between 1992-1998, with a bigger increase in 1996. Finally, it was found that the most important determinants of spending were prices and income. Policies focusing on tobacco prices would help to reduce tobacco consumption and improve the health of the Mexican population.

Influence of solar activity on the state of the wheat market in medieval England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev A.; Din, Gregory Yom

2004-09-01

The database of professor Rogers (1887), which includes wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages, was used to search for a possible influence of solar activity on the wheat market. Our approach was based on the following: (1) Existence of the correlation between cosmic ray flux entering the terrestrial atmosphere and cloudiness of the atmosphere. (2) Cosmic ray intensity in the solar system changes with solar activity, (3) Wheat production depends on weather conditions as a nonlinear function with threshold transitions. (4) A wheat market with a limited supply (as it was in medieval England) has a highly nonlinear sensitivity to variations in wheat production with boundary states, where small changes in wheat supply could lead to bursts of prices or to prices falling. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations, and compare expected price fluctuations with price variations recorded in medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between wheat price bursts during the years 1249-1703 with statistical properties of the intervals between the minima of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. We show that statistical properties of these two samples are similar, both for characteristics of the distributions and for histograms of the distributions. We analyze a direct link between wheat prices and solar activity in the 17th century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data (derived from 10Be isotope) are available. We show that for all 10 time moments of the solar activity minima the observed prices were higher than prices for the corresponding time moments of maximal solar activity (100% sign correlation, on a significance level < 0.2%). We consider these results a direct evidence of the causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.

Privacy-Preserving Relationship Path Discovery in Social Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezzour, Ghita; Perrig, Adrian; Gligor, Virgil; Papadimitratos, Panos

As social networks sites continue to proliferate and are being used for an increasing variety of purposes, the privacy risks raised by the full access of social networking sites over user data become uncomfortable. A decentralized social network would help alleviate this problem, but offering the functionalities of social networking sites is a distributed manner is a challenging problem. In this paper, we provide techniques to instantiate one of the core functionalities of social networks: discovery of paths between individuals. Our algorithm preserves the privacy of relationship information, and can operate offline during the path discovery phase. We simulate our algorithm on real social network topologies.

Computation and analysis for a constrained entropy optimization problem in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Changhong; Coleman, Thomas F.; Li, Yuying

2008-12-01

In [T. Coleman, C. He, Y. Li, Calibrating volatility function bounds for an uncertain volatility model, Journal of Computational Finance (2006) (submitted for publication)], an entropy minimization formulation has been proposed to calibrate an uncertain volatility option pricing model (UVM) from market bid and ask prices. To avoid potential infeasibility due to numerical error, a quadratic penalty function approach is applied. In this paper, we show that the solution to the quadratic penalty problem can be obtained by minimizing an objective function which can be evaluated via solving a Hamilton-Jacobian-Bellman (HJB) equation. We prove that the implicit finite difference solution of this HJB equation converges to its viscosity solution. In addition, we provide computational examples illustrating accuracy of calibration.

Welfare implications of energy and environmental policies: A general equilibrium approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iqbal, Mohammad Qamar

Government intervention and implementation of policies can impose a financial and social cost. To achieve a desired goal there could be several different alternative policies or routes, and government would like to choose the one which imposes the least social costs or/and generates greater social benefits. Therefore, applied welfare economics plays a vital role in public decision making. This paper recasts welfare measure such as equivalent variation, in terms of the prices of factors of production rather than product prices. This is made possible by using duality theory within a general equilibrium framework and by deriving alternative forms of indirect utility functions and expenditure functions in factor prices. Not only we are able to recast existing welfare measures in factor prices, we are able to perform a true cost-benefit analysis of government policies using comparative static analysis of different equilibria and breaking up monetary measure of welfare change such as equivalent variation into its components. A further advantage of our research is demonstrated by incorporating externalities and public goods in the utility function. It is interesting that under a general equilibrium framework optimal income tax tends to reduce inequalities. Results show that imposition of taxes at socially optimal rates brings a net gain to the society. It was also seen that even though a pollution tax may reduce GDP, it leads to an increase in the welfare of the society if it is imposed at an optimal rate.

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles

PubMed Central

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P. Read; Camerer, Colin F.

2014-01-01

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations—price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation. PMID:25002476

Irrational exuberance and neural crash warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles.

PubMed

Smith, Alec; Lohrenz, Terry; King, Justin; Montague, P Read; Camerer, Colin F

2014-07-22

Groups of humans routinely misassign value to complex future events, especially in settings involving the exchange of resources. If properly structured, experimental markets can act as excellent probes of human group-level valuation mechanisms during pathological overvaluations--price bubbles. The connection between the behavioral and neural underpinnings of such phenomena has been absent, in part due to a lack of enabling technology. We used a multisubject functional MRI paradigm to measure neural activity in human subjects participating in experimental asset markets in which endogenous price bubbles formed and crashed. Although many ideas exist about how and why such bubbles may form and how to identify them, our experiment provided a window on the connection between neural responses and behavioral acts (buying and selling) that created the bubbles. We show that aggregate neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) tracks the price bubble and that NAcc activity aggregated within a market predicts future price changes and crashes. Furthermore, the lowest-earning subjects express a stronger tendency to buy as a function of measured NAcc activity. Conversely, we report a signal in the anterior insular cortex in the highest earners that precedes the impending price peak, is associated with a higher propensity to sell in high earners, and that may represent a neural early warning signal in these subjects. Such markets could be a model system to understand neural and behavior mechanisms in other settings where emergent group-level activity exhibits mistaken belief or valuation.

Quantifying the Ease of Scientific Discovery

PubMed Central

Arbesman, Samuel

2012-01-01

It has long been known that scientific output proceeds on an exponential increase, or more properly, a logistic growth curve. The interplay between effort and discovery is clear, and the nature of the functional form has been thought to be due to many changes in the scientific process over time. Here I show a quantitative method for examining the ease of scientific progress, another necessary component in understanding scientific discovery. Using examples from three different scientific disciplines – mammalian species, chemical elements, and minor planets – I find the ease of discovery to conform to an exponential decay. In addition, I show how the pace of scientific discovery can be best understood as the outcome of both scientific output and ease of discovery. A quantitative study of the ease of scientific discovery in the aggregate, such as done here, has the potential to provide a great deal of insight into both the nature of future discoveries and the technical processes behind discoveries in science. PMID:22328796

Quantifying the Ease of Scientific Discovery.

PubMed

Arbesman, Samuel

2011-02-01

It has long been known that scientific output proceeds on an exponential increase, or more properly, a logistic growth curve. The interplay between effort and discovery is clear, and the nature of the functional form has been thought to be due to many changes in the scientific process over time. Here I show a quantitative method for examining the ease of scientific progress, another necessary component in understanding scientific discovery. Using examples from three different scientific disciplines - mammalian species, chemical elements, and minor planets - I find the ease of discovery to conform to an exponential decay. In addition, I show how the pace of scientific discovery can be best understood as the outcome of both scientific output and ease of discovery. A quantitative study of the ease of scientific discovery in the aggregate, such as done here, has the potential to provide a great deal of insight into both the nature of future discoveries and the technical processes behind discoveries in science.

If the U.S. had Canada's stumpage system

Treesearch

Henry Spelter

2006-01-01

North American log markets function on different principles -- a profit allowance for the wood processor plays a role in timber pricing in Canada, while in the United States, it is a byproduct of the give and take of arm’s-length market negotiations. The former is characterized by high elasticities of price transmission and, at times of market weakness, by low...

The modified Black-Scholes model via constant elasticity of variance for stock options valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edeki, S. O.; Owoloko, E. A.; Ugbebor, O. O.

2016-02-01

In this paper, the classical Black-Scholes option pricing model is visited. We present a modified version of the Black-Scholes model via the application of the constant elasticity of variance model (CEVM); in this case, the volatility of the stock price is shown to be a non-constant function unlike the assumption of the classical Black-Scholes model.

Analysis of economics of a TV broadcasting satellite for additional nationwide TV programs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, D.; Mertens, G.; Rappold, A.; Seith, W.

1977-01-01

The influence of a TV broadcasting satellite, transmitting four additional TV networks was analyzed. It is assumed that the cost of the satellite systems will be financed by the cable TV system operators. The additional TV programs increase income by attracting additional subscribers. Two economic models were established: (1) each local network is regarded as an independent economic unit with individual fees (cost price model) and (2) all networks are part of one public cable TV company with uniform fees (uniform price model). Assumptions are made for penetration as a function of subscription rates. Main results of the study are: the installation of a TV broadcasting satellite improves the economics of CTV-networks in both models; the overall coverage achievable by the uniform price model is significantly higher than that achievable by the cost price model.

Systems and methods for energy cost optimization in a building system

DOEpatents

Turney, Robert D.; Wenzel, Michael J.

2016-09-06

Methods and systems to minimize energy cost in response to time-varying energy prices are presented for a variety of different pricing scenarios. A cascaded model predictive control system is disclosed comprising an inner controller and an outer controller. The inner controller controls power use using a derivative of a temperature setpoint and the outer controller controls temperature via a power setpoint or power deferral. An optimization procedure is used to minimize a cost function within a time horizon subject to temperature constraints, equality constraints, and demand charge constraints. Equality constraints are formulated using system model information and system state information whereas demand charge constraints are formulated using system state information and pricing information. A masking procedure is used to invalidate demand charge constraints for inactive pricing periods including peak, partial-peak, off-peak, critical-peak, and real-time.

Modeling of waiting times and price changes in currency exchange data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repetowicz, Przemysław; Richmond, Peter

2004-11-01

A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk (Physica A 287 (2000) 468, Physica A 314 (2002) 749, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 273, Physica A 376 (2000) 284) has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density function (pdf) φ(x,t) which uses the concept of a Lévy stable distribution is worked out. The theory is fitted to high-frequency US $/Japanese Yen exchange rate and low-frequency 19th century Irish stock data. The theory has been fitted both to price return and to waiting time data and the adherence to data, in terms of the χ2 test statistic, has been improved when compared to the old theory.

Joint decision of pricing and order quantity by considering product substitution in dual channel supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widodo, Erwin

2017-11-01

Dual channel supply chain (DCSC) has been attracting many researchers' attention. Their contributions mainly are in two folds, namely pricing problem and inventory policy. However, research to address both pricing and inventory problems simultaneously are still scarce. Meanwhile in recent competitive market, product substitution is an unavoidable practice in fulfilling customer demand when the main product is unavailable. Thus how to decide price and order quantity by considering product substitution under DCSC setting is an interesting topic to address. In this paper, corresponding mathematical model incorporating such problem is proposed. This model consists of objective function measuring sales revenue and inventory cost, and some constraints to assure positive profit margin, interplaying price between online and offline channel, and positive demand. Two pricing schemes, namely Vertical Nash and Stackelberg Leadership are evaluated. The result shows that in any situation of substitution level, Vertical Nash solution provides higher financial performance than that under Stackelberg Leadership. In addition, this work's results have also revealed that there exist some threshold values differentiating when it is better off to apply Vertical Nash scenario an, when Stackelberg Leadership scenario is preferable.

Pricing timer options and variance derivatives with closed-form partial transform under the 3/2 model

PubMed Central

Zheng, Wendong; Zeng, Pingping

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Most of the empirical studies on stochastic volatility dynamics favour the 3/2 specification over the square-root (CIR) process in the Heston model. In the context of option pricing, the 3/2 stochastic volatility model (SVM) is reported to be able to capture the volatility skew evolution better than the Heston model. In this article, we make a thorough investigation on the analytic tractability of the 3/2 SVM by proposing a closed-form formula for the partial transform of the triple joint transition density which stand for the log asset price, the quadratic variation (continuous realized variance) and the instantaneous variance, respectively. Two distinct formulations are provided for deriving the main result. The closed-form partial transform enables us to deduce a variety of marginal partial transforms and characteristic functions and plays a crucial role in pricing discretely sampled variance derivatives and exotic options that depend on both the asset price and quadratic variation. Various applications and numerical examples on pricing moment swaps and timer options with discrete monitoring feature are given to demonstrate the versatility of the partial transform under the 3/2 model. PMID:28706460

Computational methods for a three-dimensional model of the petroleum-discovery process

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuenemeyer, J.H.; Bawiec, W.J.; Drew, L.J.

1980-01-01

A discovery-process model devised by Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root can be used to predict the amount of petroleum to be discovered in a basin from some future level of exploratory effort: the predictions are based on historical drilling and discovery data. Because marginal costs of discovery and production are a function of field size, the model can be used to make estimates of future discoveries within deposit size classes. The modeling approach is a geometric one in which the area searched is a function of the size and shape of the targets being sought. A high correlation is assumed between the surface-projection area of the fields and the volume of petroleum. To predict how much oil remains to be found, the area searched must be computed, and the basin size and discovery efficiency must be estimated. The basin is assumed to be explored randomly rather than by pattern drilling. The model may be used to compute independent estimates of future oil at different depth intervals for a play involving multiple producing horizons. We have written FORTRAN computer programs that are used with Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root's model to merge the discovery and drilling information and perform the necessary computations to estimate undiscovered petroleum. These program may be modified easily for the estimation of remaining quantities of commodities other than petroleum. ?? 1980.

Application of chemical biology in target identification and drug discovery.

PubMed

Zhu, Yue; Xiao, Ting; Lei, Saifei; Zhou, Fulai; Wang, Ming-Wei

2015-09-01

Drug discovery and development is vital to the well-being of mankind and sustainability of the pharmaceutical industry. Using chemical biology approaches to discover drug leads has become a widely accepted path partially because of the completion of the Human Genome Project. Chemical biology mainly solves biological problems through searching previously unknown targets for pharmacologically active small molecules or finding ligands for well-defined drug targets. It is a powerful tool to study how these small molecules interact with their respective targets, as well as their roles in signal transduction, molecular recognition and cell functions. There have been an increasing number of new therapeutic targets being identified and subsequently validated as a result of advances in functional genomics, which in turn led to the discovery of numerous active small molecules via a variety of high-throughput screening initiatives. In this review, we highlight some applications of chemical biology in the context of drug discovery.

Discovery of novel drug targets and their functions using phenotypic screening of natural products.

PubMed

Chang, Junghwa; Kwon, Ho Jeong

2016-03-01

Natural products are valuable resources that provide a variety of bioactive compounds and natural pharmacophores in modern drug discovery. Discovery of biologically active natural products and unraveling their target proteins to understand their mode of action have always been critical hurdles for their development into clinical drugs. For effective discovery and development of bioactive natural products into novel therapeutic drugs, comprehensive screening and identification of target proteins are indispensable. In this review, a systematic approach to understanding the mode of action of natural products isolated using phenotypic screening involving chemical proteomics-based target identification is introduced. This review highlights three natural products recently discovered via phenotypic screening, namely glucopiericidin A, ecumicin, and terpestacin, as representative case studies to revisit the pivotal role of natural products as powerful tools in discovering the novel functions and druggability of targets in biological systems and pathological diseases of interest.

Efficient discovery of bioactive scaffolds by activity-directed synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgis, George; Warriner, Stuart; Nelson, Adam

2014-10-01

The structures and biological activities of natural products have often provided inspiration in drug discovery. The functional benefits of natural products to the host organism steers the evolution of their biosynthetic pathways. Here, we describe a discovery approach—which we term activity-directed synthesis—in which reactions with alternative outcomes are steered towards functional products. Arrays of catalysed reactions of α-diazo amides, whose outcome was critically dependent on the specific conditions used, were performed. The products were assayed at increasingly low concentration, with the results informing the design of a subsequent reaction array. Finally, promising reactions were scaled up and, after purification, submicromolar ligands based on two scaffolds with no previous annotated activity against the androgen receptor were discovered. The approach enables the discovery, in tandem, of both bioactive small molecules and associated synthetic routes, analogous to the evolution of biosynthetic pathways to yield natural products.

Genomic Enzymology: Web Tools for Leveraging Protein Family Sequence-Function Space and Genome Context to Discover Novel Functions.

PubMed

Gerlt, John A

2017-08-22

The exponentially increasing number of protein and nucleic acid sequences provides opportunities to discover novel enzymes, metabolic pathways, and metabolites/natural products, thereby adding to our knowledge of biochemistry and biology. The challenge has evolved from generating sequence information to mining the databases to integrating and leveraging the available information, i.e., the availability of "genomic enzymology" web tools. Web tools that allow identification of biosynthetic gene clusters are widely used by the natural products/synthetic biology community, thereby facilitating the discovery of novel natural products and the enzymes responsible for their biosynthesis. However, many novel enzymes with interesting mechanisms participate in uncharacterized small-molecule metabolic pathways; their discovery and functional characterization also can be accomplished by leveraging information in protein and nucleic acid databases. This Perspective focuses on two genomic enzymology web tools that assist the discovery novel metabolic pathways: (1) Enzyme Function Initiative-Enzyme Similarity Tool (EFI-EST) for generating sequence similarity networks to visualize and analyze sequence-function space in protein families and (2) Enzyme Function Initiative-Genome Neighborhood Tool (EFI-GNT) for generating genome neighborhood networks to visualize and analyze the genome context in microbial and fungal genomes. Both tools have been adapted to other applications to facilitate target selection for enzyme discovery and functional characterization. As the natural products community has demonstrated, the enzymology community needs to embrace the essential role of web tools that allow the protein and genome sequence databases to be leveraged for novel insights into enzymological problems.

Genomic Enzymology: Web Tools for Leveraging Protein Family Sequence–Function Space and Genome Context to Discover Novel Functions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The exponentially increasing number of protein and nucleic acid sequences provides opportunities to discover novel enzymes, metabolic pathways, and metabolites/natural products, thereby adding to our knowledge of biochemistry and biology. The challenge has evolved from generating sequence information to mining the databases to integrating and leveraging the available information, i.e., the availability of “genomic enzymology” web tools. Web tools that allow identification of biosynthetic gene clusters are widely used by the natural products/synthetic biology community, thereby facilitating the discovery of novel natural products and the enzymes responsible for their biosynthesis. However, many novel enzymes with interesting mechanisms participate in uncharacterized small-molecule metabolic pathways; their discovery and functional characterization also can be accomplished by leveraging information in protein and nucleic acid databases. This Perspective focuses on two genomic enzymology web tools that assist the discovery novel metabolic pathways: (1) Enzyme Function Initiative-Enzyme Similarity Tool (EFI-EST) for generating sequence similarity networks to visualize and analyze sequence–function space in protein families and (2) Enzyme Function Initiative-Genome Neighborhood Tool (EFI-GNT) for generating genome neighborhood networks to visualize and analyze the genome context in microbial and fungal genomes. Both tools have been adapted to other applications to facilitate target selection for enzyme discovery and functional characterization. As the natural products community has demonstrated, the enzymology community needs to embrace the essential role of web tools that allow the protein and genome sequence databases to be leveraged for novel insights into enzymological problems. PMID:28826221

CRISPR/Cas9: From Genome Engineering to Cancer Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Luo, Ji

2016-01-01

Advances in translational research are often driven by new technologies. The advent of microarrays, next-generation sequencing, proteomics and RNA interference (RNAi) have led to breakthroughs in our understanding of the mechanisms of cancer and the discovery of new cancer drug targets. The discovery of the bacterial clustered regularly interspaced palindromic repeat (CRISPR) system and its subsequent adaptation as a tool for mammalian genome engineering has opened up new avenues for functional genomics studies. This review will focus on the utility of CRISPR in the context of cancer drug target discovery. PMID:28603775

Modeling the Impact of Energy and Water Prices on Reservoir and Aquifer Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dale, L. L.; Vicuna, S.; Faybishenko, B.

2008-12-01

Climate change and polices to limit carbon emissions are likely to increase energy and water scarcity and raise prices. These price impacts affect the way that reservoirs and aquifers should be managed to maximize the value of water and energy outputs. In this paper, we use a model of storage in a specific region to illustrate how energy and water prices affect optimal reservoir and aquifer management. We evaluate reservoir-aquifer water management in the Merced water basin in California, applying an optimization model of storage benefits associated with different management options and input prices. The model includes two submodels: (a) a monthly nonlinear submodel for optimization of the conjunctive energy/water use and (b) an inter-annual stochastic dynamic programming submodel used for determining an operating rule matrix which maximizes system benefits for given economic and hydrologic conditions. The model input parameters include annual inflows, initial storage, crop water demands, crop prices and electricity prices. The model is used to determine changes in net energy generation and water delivery and associated changes in water storage levels caused by changes in water and energy output prices. For the scenario of water/energy tradeoffs for a pure reservoir (with no groundwater use), we illustrate the tradeoff between the agricultural water use and hydropower generation (MWh) for different energy/agriculture price ratios. The analysis is divided into four steps. The first and second steps describe these price impacts on reservoirs and aquifers, respectively. The third step covers price impacts on conjunctive reservoir and aquifer management. The forth step describes price impacts on reservoir and aquifer storage in the more common historical situation, when these facilities are managed separately. The study indicates that optimal reservoir and aquifer storage levels are a positive function of the energy to water price ratio. The study also concludes that conjunctive use of a reservoir and an aquifer tends to force convergence in the long term, multiyear, average groundwater and reservoir storage heads. The results of this study can be used for developing an efficient strategy of managing energy and water resources in different regions across a broad range of climatic, agricultural, and economic scenarios.

Carbon Prices: Dynamic analysis of European and Californian markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Rita Mafalda Dionisio de

Carbon markets' goal is to promote the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases where it is most cost-efficient. This makes the price of the tradable good - carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) - a key variable in management and risk decisions, in markets related to activities connected with the burning of fossil fuels, such as power generation. This work aims to improve the analysis of carbon prices' dynamics, considering the possibility of multidirectional effects between prices of CO2e, energy (primary and final), offsets licenses and the economy performance, in various frequencies. The two main research questions are: (i) what drives carbon price variations? (ii) what variations do carbon prices drive? We used two comple-mentary methodologies: (a) a vector autoregression model (of common use in macroeconomics and financial markets but not in carbon-energy relations), which allows the analysis of causality and of impulse-response functions of daily prices; and (b) an innovative multivariate wavelet analysis, which allows us to understand the relationship and causal link between the variables in the time and frequency dimensions, particularly in longer cycles (4 8 and 8 20 months), not perceived in previous studies. As case studies we considered the European (EU ETS) and Califor-nia (AB32) carbon markets. This is the first research to present the analysis of the referred US market. The analysis covers the 2008-2013 period, intentionally excluding the EU ETS phase I, for greater consistency of results. Results suggest that the economy and electricity drive the price of European carbon, while gas and oil have a greater role in California. So, there is a greater influence of final energy prices in the most mature market. We also observe that the price of CERs does not affect the European carbon price. On the other hand, this study shows for the first time that carbon prices have impacts on electricity prices over longer cycles (8 20 months) and in coal over short cycles (limited to the first days). It is suggested that the carbon market has more significant effects in longer cycles. The price of European carbon also has impact in CERs prices. The results are statistically significant and relevant, and will improve the quality of decision making of all parties involved in the energy and carbon markets - polluters and regulators included.

Essays on parametric and nonparametric modeling and estimation with applications to energy economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Weiyu

My dissertation research is composed of two parts: a theoretical part on semiparametric efficient estimation and an applied part in energy economics under different dynamic settings. The essays are related in terms of their applications as well as the way in which models are constructed and estimated. In the first essay, efficient estimation of the partially linear model is studied. We work out the efficient score functions and efficiency bounds under four stochastic restrictions---independence, conditional symmetry, conditional zero mean, and partially conditional zero mean. A feasible efficient estimation method for the linear part of the model is developed based on the efficient score. A battery of specification test that allows for choosing between the alternative assumptions is provided. A Monte Carlo simulation is also conducted. The second essay presents a dynamic optimization model for a stylized oilfield resembling the largest developed light oil field in Saudi Arabia, Ghawar. We use data from different sources to estimate the oil production cost function and the revenue function. We pay particular attention to the dynamic aspect of the oil production by employing petroleum-engineering software to simulate the interaction between control variables and reservoir state variables. Optimal solutions are studied under different scenarios to account for the possible changes in the exogenous variables and the uncertainty about the forecasts. The third essay examines the effect of oil price volatility on the level of innovation displayed by the U.S. economy. A measure of innovation is calculated by decomposing an output-based Malmquist index. We also construct a nonparametric measure for oil price volatility. Technical change and oil price volatility are then placed in a VAR system with oil price and a variable indicative of monetary policy. The system is estimated and analyzed for significant relationships. We find that oil price volatility displays a significant negative effect on innovation. A key point of this analysis lies in the fact that we impose no functional forms for technologies and the methods employed keep technical assumptions to a minimum.

Relating interesting quantitative time series patterns with text events and text features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanner, Franz; Schreck, Tobias; Jentner, Wolfgang; Sharalieva, Lyubka; Keim, Daniel A.

2013-12-01

In many application areas, the key to successful data analysis is the integrated analysis of heterogeneous data. One example is the financial domain, where time-dependent and highly frequent quantitative data (e.g., trading volume and price information) and textual data (e.g., economic and political news reports) need to be considered jointly. Data analysis tools need to support an integrated analysis, which allows studying the relationships between textual news documents and quantitative properties of the stock market price series. In this paper, we describe a workflow and tool that allows a flexible formation of hypotheses about text features and their combinations, which reflect quantitative phenomena observed in stock data. To support such an analysis, we combine the analysis steps of frequent quantitative and text-oriented data using an existing a-priori method. First, based on heuristics we extract interesting intervals and patterns in large time series data. The visual analysis supports the analyst in exploring parameter combinations and their results. The identified time series patterns are then input for the second analysis step, in which all identified intervals of interest are analyzed for frequent patterns co-occurring with financial news. An a-priori method supports the discovery of such sequential temporal patterns. Then, various text features like the degree of sentence nesting, noun phrase complexity, the vocabulary richness, etc. are extracted from the news to obtain meta patterns. Meta patterns are defined by a specific combination of text features which significantly differ from the text features of the remaining news data. Our approach combines a portfolio of visualization and analysis techniques, including time-, cluster- and sequence visualization and analysis functionality. We provide two case studies, showing the effectiveness of our combined quantitative and textual analysis work flow. The workflow can also be generalized to other application domains such as data analysis of smart grids, cyber physical systems or the security of critical infrastructure, where the data consists of a combination of quantitative and textual time series data.

Can Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Improve Success Rates in CNS Drug Discovery?

PubMed Central

Borsook, David; Hargreaves, Richard; Becerra, Lino

2011-01-01

Introduction The bar for developing new treatments for CNS disease is getting progressively higher and fewer novel mechanisms are being discovered, validated and developed. The high costs of drug discovery necessitate early decisions to ensure the best molecules and hypotheses are tested in expensive late stage clinical trials. The discovery of brain imaging biomarkers that can bridge preclinical to clinical CNS drug discovery and provide a ‘language of translation’ affords the opportunity to improve the objectivity of decision-making. Areas Covered This review discusses the benefits, challenges and potential issues of using a science based biomarker strategy to change the paradigm of CNS drug development and increase success rates in the discovery of new medicines. The authors have summarized PubMed and Google Scholar based publication searches to identify recent advances in functional, structural and chemical brain imaging and have discussed how these techniques may be useful in defining CNS disease state and drug effects during drug development. Expert opinion The use of novel brain imaging biomarkers holds the bold promise of making neuroscience drug discovery smarter by increasing the objectivity of decision making thereby improving the probability of success of identifying useful drugs to treat CNS diseases. Functional imaging holds the promise to: (1) define pharmacodynamic markers as an index of target engagement (2) improve translational medicine paradigms to predict efficacy; (3) evaluate CNS efficacy and safety based on brain activation; (4) determine brain activity drug dose-response relationships and (5) provide an objective evaluation of symptom response and disease modification. PMID:21765857

Metagenomics and novel gene discovery

PubMed Central

Culligan, Eamonn P; Sleator, Roy D; Marchesi, Julian R; Hill, Colin

2014-01-01

Metagenomics provides a means of assessing the total genetic pool of all the microbes in a particular environment, in a culture-independent manner. It has revealed unprecedented diversity in microbial community composition, which is further reflected in the encoded functional diversity of the genomes, a large proportion of which consists of novel genes. Herein, we review both sequence-based and functional metagenomic methods to uncover novel genes and outline some of the associated problems of each type of approach, as well as potential solutions. Furthermore, we discuss the potential for metagenomic biotherapeutic discovery, with a particular focus on the human gut microbiome and finally, we outline how the discovery of novel genes may be used to create bioengineered probiotics. PMID:24317337

An inverse problem of determining the implied volatility in option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Zui-Cha; Yu, Jian-Ning; Yang, Liu

2008-04-01

In the Black-Scholes world there is the important quantity of volatility which cannot be observed directly but has a major impact on the option value. In practice, traders usually work with what is known as implied volatility which is implied by option prices observed in the market. In this paper, we use an optimal control framework to discuss an inverse problem of determining the implied volatility when the average option premium, namely the average value of option premium corresponding with a fixed strike price and all possible maturities from the current time to a chosen future time, is known. The issue is converted into a terminal control problem by Green function method. The existence and uniqueness of the minimum of the control functional are addressed by the optimal control method, and the necessary condition which must be satisfied by the minimum is also given. The results obtained in the paper may be useful for those who engage in risk management or volatility trading.

The neural correlates of endowment effect without economic transaction.

PubMed

Votinov, Mikhail; Mima, Tatsuya; Aso, Toshihiko; Abe, Mitsunari; Sawamoto, Nobukatsu; Shinozaki, Jun; Fukuyama, Hidenao

2010-09-01

People always concern about what they have and what they might lose even it is just imaginary property. According to Prospect Theory, the losses might be weighted by subjects higher than gain, which would cause the disparity between the willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) compensation in economic valuation. Using functional MRI, we investigated neural correlates of this inconsistent value estimation, known as the endowment effect, during a simple pricing task without economic transaction. Brain activation associated with this price discrepancy was observed in the right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), where voxel-based morphometry of MRI revealed the positive correlation between gray matter concentration and WTA/WTP ratio. These findings suggest the functional relevance of IFG in WTA/WTP discrepancy for pricing without any actual gain and loss, where an integration of loss aversion-related signals from insula and expected value signals may occur. 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved.

Discovery of functional elements in 12 Drosophila genomes using evolutionary signatures

PubMed Central

Stark, Alexander; Lin, Michael F.; Kheradpour, Pouya; Pedersen, Jakob S.; Parts, Leopold; Carlson, Joseph W.; Crosby, Madeline A.; Rasmussen, Matthew D.; Roy, Sushmita; Deoras, Ameya N.; Ruby, J. Graham; Brennecke, Julius; Hodges, Emily; Hinrichs, Angie S.; Caspi, Anat; Paten, Benedict; Park, Seung-Won; Han, Mira V.; Maeder, Morgan L.; Polansky, Benjamin J.; Robson, Bryanne E.; Aerts, Stein; van Helden, Jacques; Hassan, Bassem; Gilbert, Donald G.; Eastman, Deborah A.; Rice, Michael; Weir, Michael; Hahn, Matthew W.; Park, Yongkyu; Dewey, Colin N.; Pachter, Lior; Kent, W. James; Haussler, David; Lai, Eric C.; Bartel, David P.; Hannon, Gregory J.; Kaufman, Thomas C.; Eisen, Michael B.; Clark, Andrew G.; Smith, Douglas; Celniker, Susan E.; Gelbart, William M.; Kellis, Manolis

2008-01-01

Sequencing of multiple related species followed by comparative genomics analysis constitutes a powerful approach for the systematic understanding of any genome. Here, we use the genomes of 12 Drosophila species for the de novo discovery of functional elements in the fly. Each type of functional element shows characteristic patterns of change, or ‘evolutionary signatures’, dictated by its precise selective constraints. Such signatures enable recognition of new protein-coding genes and exons, spurious and incorrect gene annotations, and numerous unusual gene structures, including abundant stop-codon readthrough. Similarly, we predict non-protein-coding RNA genes and structures, and new microRNA (miRNA) genes. We provide evidence of miRNA processing and functionality from both hairpin arms and both DNA strands. We identify several classes of pre- and post-transcriptional regulatory motifs, and predict individual motif instances with high confidence. We also study how discovery power scales with the divergence and number of species compared, and we provide general guidelines for comparative studies. PMID:17994088

Ehrenfest model with large jumps in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Hisanao

2004-02-01

Changes (returns) in stock index prices and exchange rates for currencies are argued, based on empirical data, to obey a stable distribution with characteristic exponent α<2 for short sampling intervals and a Gaussian distribution for long sampling intervals. In order to explain this phenomenon, an Ehrenfest model with large jumps (ELJ) is introduced to explain the empirical density function of price changes for both short and long sampling intervals.

Enabling Technologies for Unified Life-Cycle Engineering of Structural Components

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-03-22

representations for entities in the ULCE system for unambiguous, reliable, and efficient retrieval, manipulation, and transfer of data. Develop a rapid analysis...approaches to these functions. It is reasonable to assume that program budgets for future systems will be more restrictive and that fixed- price contracting...enemy threats, economics, and politics. The requirements are voluminous and may stipulate firm fixed- price proposals with detailed schedules. At this

Bridging stylized facts in finance and data non-stationarities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camargo, Sabrina; Duarte Queirós, Sílvio M.; Anteneodo, Celia

2013-04-01

Employing a recent technique which allows the representation of nonstationary data by means of a juxtaposition of locally stationary paths of different length, we introduce a comprehensive analysis of the key observables in a financial market: the trading volume and the price fluctuations. From the segmentation procedure we are able to introduce a quantitative description of statistical features of these two quantities, which are often named stylized facts, namely the tails of the distribution of trading volume and price fluctuations and a dynamics compatible with the U-shaped profile of the volume in a trading section and the slow decay of the autocorrelation function. The segmentation of the trading volume series provides evidence of slow evolution of the fluctuating parameters of each patch, pointing to the mixing scenario. Assuming that long-term features are the outcome of a statistical mixture of simple local forms, we test and compare different probability density functions to provide the long-term distribution of the trading volume, concluding that the log-normal gives the best agreement with the empirical distribution. Moreover, the segmentation of the magnitude price fluctuations are quite different from the results for the trading volume, indicating that changes in the statistics of price fluctuations occur at a faster scale than in the case of trading volume.

The estimation of time-varying risks in asset pricing modelling using B-Spline method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurjannah; Solimun; Rinaldo, Adji

2017-12-01

Asset pricing modelling has been extensively studied in the past few decades to explore the risk-return relationship. The asset pricing literature typically assumed a static risk-return relationship. However, several studies found few anomalies in the asset pricing modelling which captured the presence of the risk instability. The dynamic model is proposed to offer a better model. The main problem highlighted in the dynamic model literature is that the set of conditioning information is unobservable and therefore some assumptions have to be made. Hence, the estimation requires additional assumptions about the dynamics of risk. To overcome this problem, the nonparametric estimators can also be used as an alternative for estimating risk. The flexibility of the nonparametric setting avoids the problem of misspecification derived from selecting a functional form. This paper investigates the estimation of time-varying asset pricing model using B-Spline, as one of nonparametric approach. The advantages of spline method is its computational speed and simplicity, as well as the clarity of controlling curvature directly. The three popular asset pricing models will be investigated namely CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model), Fama-French 3-factors model and Carhart 4-factors model. The results suggest that the estimated risks are time-varying and not stable overtime which confirms the risk instability anomaly. The results is more pronounced in Carhart’s 4-factors model.

Relationship of mother and child food purchases as a function of price: a pilot study.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Handley, Elizabeth A; Roemmich, James N; Paluch, Rocco A

2006-07-01

To our knowledge, there are no data on parental influences on child purchasing behavior of healthy or unhealthy foods. Mothers and children in ten families were given 5.00 US dollars to purchase portions of preferred fruits/vegetables and high energy-dense snack foods for each of ten trials of price manipulations. For five of the trials the price of the fruit/vegetable increased in price from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars (in 0.50 US dollar increments), while the price of the energy-dense snack food remained constant at 1.00 US dollar. For the remaining five trials, the commodity that previously rose in price remained constant at 1.00 US dollars and the other commodity varied from 0.50 US dollars to 2.50 US dollars. Same-price elasticity was shown for both the child and parent purchases, and parent purchases were significantly related to child purchases of both healthy (regression estimate = 0.46, p < 0.001) and unhealthy (regression estimate = 0.12, p = 0.036) foods. Children's purchases of unhealthy snack food items were positively related to family socioeconomic status, and negatively related to child age. These results indicate that parental food choice and purchasing behaviors may play a role in the development of children's purchasing of both healthy and unhealthy foods.

Microscopic analysis of currency and stock exchange markets.

PubMed

Kador, L

1999-08-01

Recently it was shown that distributions of short-term price fluctuations in foreign-currency exchange exhibit striking similarities to those of velocity differences in turbulent flows. Similar profiles represent the spectral-diffusion behavior of impurity molecules in disordered solids at low temperatures. It is demonstrated that a microscopic statistical theory of the spectroscopic line shapes can be applied to the other two phenomena. The theory interprets the financial data in terms of information which becomes available to the traders and their reactions as a function of time. The analysis shows that there is no characteristic time scale in financial markets, but that instead stretched-exponential or algebraic memory functions yield good agreement with the price data. For an algebraic function, the theory yields truncated Lévy distributions which are often observed in stock exchange markets.

Microscopic analysis of currency and stock exchange markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kador, L.

1999-08-01

Recently it was shown that distributions of short-term price fluctuations in foreign-currency exchange exhibit striking similarities to those of velocity differences in turbulent flows. Similar profiles represent the spectral-diffusion behavior of impurity molecules in disordered solids at low temperatures. It is demonstrated that a microscopic statistical theory of the spectroscopic line shapes can be applied to the other two phenomena. The theory interprets the financial data in terms of information which becomes available to the traders and their reactions as a function of time. The analysis shows that there is no characteristic time scale in financial markets, but that instead stretched-exponential or algebraic memory functions yield good agreement with the price data. For an algebraic function, the theory yields truncated Lévy distributions which are often observed in stock exchange markets.

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

IPhone or Kindle: Competition of Electronic Books Sales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li

With the technical development of the reading equipment, e-books have witnessed a gradual and steady increase in sales in recent years. Last year, smart phones announced to be able to perform additional functions as e-book reading devices, making it possible for retailers selling e-books for smart phones (SPR) such as iPhone to differentiate with those selling e-books for specific reading equipment (SER) such as Amazon Kindle. We develop a game theory model to examine the competition between SER and SPR retailers. We derive the equilibrium price and analyze the factors that affect equilibrium outcomes under both scenarios of complete and incomplete information. Our results suggest that reduced cost due to inconvenience of reading e-books over iPhone lowers equilibrium prices, and reduced cost of specific reading equipment leads to more intense price competition. Under information asymmetry, we show that SER retailers will increase the price at equilibrium.

Pricing for scarcity? An efficiency analysis of increasing block tariffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monteiro, Henrique; Roseta-Palma, Catarina

2011-06-01

Water pricing schedules often contain significant nonlinearities, such as the increasing block tariff (IBT) structure that is abundantly applied for residential users. The IBT is frequently supported as a good tool for achieving the goals of equity, water conservation, and revenue neutrality but seldom has been grounded on efficiency justifications. In particular, existing literature on water pricing establishes that although efficient schedules will depend on demand and supply characteristics, IBT cannot usually be recommended. In this paper, we consider whether the explicit inclusion of scarcity considerations can strengthen the appeal of IBT. Results show that when both demand and costs react to climate factors, increasing marginal prices may come about as a response to a combination of water scarcity and customer heterogeneity. We derive testable conditions and then illustrate their application through an estimation of Portuguese residential water demand. We show that the recommended tariff schedule hinges crucially on the choice of functional form for demand.

A very efficient approach to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model: Applications in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo; Pacelli, Graziella; Radi, Davide

2016-12-01

We propose a numerical method to compute the first-passage probability density function in a time-changed Brownian model. In particular, we derive an integral representation of such a density function in which the integrand functions must be obtained solving a system of Volterra equations of the first kind. In addition, we develop an ad-hoc numerical procedure to regularize and solve this system of integral equations. The proposed method is tested on three application problems of interest in mathematical finance, namely the calculation of the survival probability of an indebted firm, the pricing of a single-knock-out put option and the pricing of a double-knock-out put option. The results obtained reveal that the novel approach is extremely accurate and fast, and performs significantly better than the finite difference method.

Regulatory policy and the location of bio-pharmaceutical foreign direct investment in Europe.

PubMed

Koenig, Pamina; Macgarvie, Megan

2011-09-01

This paper examines the relationship between cross-country differences in drug price regulation and the location of biopharmaceutical Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe. Simple theory predicts that price regulation in one country might affect total investment, but not the location of that investment, if sales are global. Nevertheless, some manufacturers threaten that the introduction of price regulation in a country will motivate them to move their investments to other countries. Are such threats cheap talk, or is there evidence that firms avoid price-controlling countries when making FDI location choices? We use data on 527 investments initiated in 27 European countries between 2002 and 2009 and find that investors are less likely to choose countries with price controls, after controlling for other determinants of investment. We also observe a relative decline in investment in countries that increased the stringency of regulatory regimes during our sample period. The effect is restricted to non-manufacturing investments and is most robust for those related to administrative functions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Valuing water resources in Switzerland using a hedonic price model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, Diana; Siber, Rosi; Brouwer, Roy; Logar, Ivana; Sanadgol, Dorsa

2016-05-01

In this paper, linear and spatial hedonic price models are applied to the housing market in Switzerland, covering all 26 cantons in the country over the period 2005-2010. Besides structural house, neighborhood and socioeconomic characteristics, we include a wide variety of new environmental characteristics related to water to examine their role in explaining variation in sales prices. These include water abundance, different types of water bodies, the recreational function of water, and water disamenity. Significant spatial autocorrelation is found in the estimated models, as well as nonlinear effects for distances to the nearest lake and large river. Significant effects are furthermore found for water abundance and the distance to large rivers, but not to small rivers. Although in both linear and spatial models water related variables explain less than 1% of the price variation, the distance to the nearest bathing site has a larger marginal contribution than many neighborhood-related distance variables. The housing market shows to differentiate between different water related resources in terms of relative contribution to house prices, which could help the housing development industry make more geographically targeted planning activities.

Reverse resonance in stock prices of financial system with periodic information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2013-07-01

We investigate the stochastic resonance of the stock prices in a finance system with the Heston model. The extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information are introduced into the stochastic differential equations of the Heston model for stock price by focusing on the signal power amplification (SPA). We find that for both cases of extrinsic and intrinsic periodic information a phenomenon of reverse resonance emerges in the behaviors of SPA as a function of the system and external driving parameters. Moreover, in both cases, a phenomenon of double reverse resonance is observed in the behavior of SPA versus the amplitude of volatility fluctuations, by increasing the cross correlation between the noise sources in the Heston model.

The substitutability of cigarettes and food: A behavioral economic comparison in normal weight and overweight or obese smokers.

PubMed

Murphy, Cara M; Owens, Max M; Sweet, Lawrence H; MacKillop, James

2016-12-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking contribute to a multitude of preventable deaths in the United States and eating and smoking behavior may influence each other. The field of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics and permits systematic examination of how commodities interrelate with one another. Using this framework, the current study evaluated the effects of rising food and cigarette prices on consumption to investigate their substitutability and their relationship to BMI and associated variables. Behavioral economics categorizes commodities as substitutable when the consumption of one increases as a function of a price increase in the other. Smokers (N = 86) completed a 2-part hypothetical task in which money was allocated to purchase cigarettes and fast-food-style reinforcers (e.g., hamburgers, ice cream) at various prices. Results indicated that food and cigarettes were not substitutes for one another (cross-price elasticity coefficients < .20). Food purchases were independent of cigarette price, whereas cigarette purchases decreased as food price rose. Cross-price elasticity coefficients were significantly associated with confidence in one's ability to control weight without smoking (rs = -.23 and .29), but not BMI (rs = .04 and .04) or postcessation weight concerns (rs = -.05 and .12). Perceived ability to manage weight without cigarettes may influence who substitutes food for cigarettes when quitting. In addition, given observed decreases in purchases of both commodities as food prices increased, these findings imply that greater taxation of fast-food-style reinforcers could potentially reduce consumption of these foods and also cigarettes among smokers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

Competition in decentralized electricity markets: Three papers on electricity auctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harbord, David William Cameron

This thesis consists of three self-contained papers on the analysis of electricity auctions written over a period of twelve years. The first paper models price competition in a decentralized wholesale market for electricity as a first-price, sealed-bid, multi-unit auction. In both the pure and mixed-strategy equilibria of the model, above marginal cost pricing and inefficient despatch of generating units occur. An alternative regulatory pricing rule is considered and it is shown that offering to supply at marginal cost can be induced as a dominant strategy for all firms. The second paper analyses strategic interaction between long-term contracts and price competition in the British electricity wholesale market, and confirms that forward contracts will tend to put downward pressure on spot market prices. A 'strategic commitment' motive for selling forward contracts is also identified: a generator may commit itself to bidding lower prices into the spot market in order to ensure that it will be despatched with its full capacity. The third paper characterizes bidding behavior and market outcomes in uniform and discriminatory electricity auctions. Uniform auctions result in higher average prices than discriminatory auctions, but the ranking in terms of productive efficiency is ambiguous. The comparative effects of other market design features, such as the number of steps in suppliers' bid functions, the duration of bids and the elasticity of demand are analyzed. The paper also clarifies some methodological issues in the analysis of electricity auctions. In particular we show that analogies with continuous share auctions are misplaced so long as firms are restricted to a finite number of bids.

The Substitutability of Cigarettes and Food: A Behavioral Economic Comparison in Normal Weight and Overweight or Obese Smokers

PubMed Central

Murphy, Cara M.; Owens, Max M.; Sweet, Lawrence H.; MacKillop, James

2017-01-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking contribute to a multitude of preventable deaths in the US and eating and smoking behavior may influence each other. The field of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics and permits systematic examination of how commodities interrelate with one another. Using this framework, the current study evaluated the effects of rising food and cigarette prices on consumption to investigate their substitutability and their relationship to BMI and associated variables. Behavioral economics categorizes commodities as substitutable when the consumption of one increases as a function of a price increase in the other. Smokers (N = 86) completed a two-part hypothetical task in which money was allocated to purchase cigarettes and fast food-style reinforcers (e.g., hamburgers, ice cream) at various prices. Results indicated that food and cigarettes were not substitutes for one another (cross-price elasticity coefficients > .20). Food purchases were independent of cigarette price, whereas cigarette purchases decreased as food price rose. Cross-price elasticity coefficients were significantly associated with confidence in one’s ability to control weight without smoking (rs = −.23 and .29), but not BMI (rs = .04 and .04) or post-cessation weight concerns (rs = −.05 and .12). Perceived ability to manage weight without cigarettes may influence who substitutes food for cigarettes when quitting. In addition, given observed decreases in purchases of both commodities as food prices increased, these findings imply that greater taxation of fast food-style reinforcers could potentially reduce consumption of these foods and also cigarettes among smokers. PMID:27736143

Drug discovery strategies to outer membrane targets in Gram-negative pathogens.

PubMed

Brown, Dean G

2016-12-15

This review will cover selected recent examples of drug discovery strategies which target the outer membrane (OM) of Gram-negative bacteria either by disruption of outer membrane function or by inhibition of essential gene products necessary for outer membrane assembly. Significant advances in pathway elucidation, structural biology and molecular inhibitor designs have created new opportunities for drug discovery within this target-class space. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arrayed antibody library technology for therapeutic biologic discovery.

PubMed

Bentley, Cornelia A; Bazirgan, Omar A; Graziano, James J; Holmes, Evan M; Smider, Vaughn V

2013-03-15

Traditional immunization and display antibody discovery methods rely on competitive selection amongst a pool of antibodies to identify a lead. While this approach has led to many successful therapeutic antibodies, targets have been limited to proteins which are easily purified. In addition, selection driven discovery has produced a narrow range of antibody functionalities focused on high affinity antagonism. We review the current progress in developing arrayed protein libraries for screening-based, rather than selection-based, discovery. These single molecule per microtiter well libraries have been screened in multiplex formats against both purified antigens and directly against targets expressed on the cell surface. This facilitates the discovery of antibodies against therapeutically interesting targets (GPCRs, ion channels, and other multispanning membrane proteins) and epitopes that have been considered poorly accessible to conventional discovery methods. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Antibiotic research and development: business as usual?

PubMed

Harbarth, S; Theuretzbacher, U; Hackett, J

2015-01-01

The global burden of antibiotic resistance is tremendous and, without new anti-infective strategies, will continue to increase in the coming decades. Despite the growing need for new antibiotics, few pharmaceutical companies today retain active antibacterial drug discovery programmes. One reason is that it is scientifically challenging to discover new antibiotics that are active against the antibiotic-resistant bacteria of current clinical concern. However, the main hurdle is diminishing economic incentives. Increased global calls to minimize the overuse of antibiotics, the cost of meeting regulatory requirements and the low prices of currently marketed antibiotics are strong deterrents to antibacterial drug development programmes. New economic models that create incentives for the discovery of new antibiotics and yet reconcile these incentives with responsible antibiotic use are long overdue. DRIVE-AB is a €9.4 million public-private consortium, funded by the EU Innovative Medicines Initiative, that aims to define a standard for the responsible use of antibiotics and to develop, test and recommend new economic models to incentivize investment in producing new anti-infective agents. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

[The neurotransmision from the other side].

PubMed

Sánchez García, Pedro

2010-01-01

The discovery of how neurons communicate, like the cracking of genetic code and the creation of the atomic bomb is one of the fundamental scientific development of the twentieth century. In this paper we described the history of scientific discovery of neurohumoral transmission against the backdrop of the two torld and the fascinating lives of several scientists whose work was affected by the social and political events in their time. The lives and history of the main protagonists Sir Henry Dale, Otto Loewi and Walter Cannon are reported here. Otto Lewi and William Felberg--as jews--were arrested by nazi troops and Otto Krayer--not a jew--for not accepting one universitary offer of nazu party. All of them, and many others, were compelled to migrate from Germany to Great Britain, where Sir Henry Dale helped them to continue their work and their lives. All this scientist played an important role in the work on chemical neurotransmission which finally cristalized in awarding the Nobel. Price--in 1936--to Otto Loewi and Sir Henry Dale, but not to Walter Cannon, in this case, for adopting a controversial theory. The role of Rockefeller Foundation in this history is also comtemplated.

Delayed nonlinear cournot and bertrand dynamics with product differentiation.

PubMed

Matsumoto, Akio; Szidarovszky, Ferenc

2007-07-01

Dynamic duopolies will be examined with product differentiation and isoelastic price functions. We will first prove that under realistic conditions the equilibrium is always locally asymptotically stable. The stability can however be lost if the firms use delayed information in forming their best responses. Stability conditions are derived in special cases, and simulation results illustrate the complexity of the dynamism of the systems. Both price and quantity adjusting models are discussed.

Mechanical vs. informational components of price impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyne Farmer, J.; Zamani, N.

2007-01-01

We study the problem of what causes prices to change. It is well known that trading impacts prices — orders to buy drive the price up, and orders to sell drive it down. We introduce a means of decomposing the total impact of trading into two components, defining the mechanical impact of a trading order as the change in future prices in the absence of any future changes in decision making, and the informational impact as the remainder of the total impact once mechanical impact is removed. This decomposition is performed using order book data from the London Stock Exchange. The average mechanical impact of a market order decays to zero as a function of time, at an asymptotic rate that is consistent with a power law with an exponent of roughly 1.7. In contrast the average informational impact builds to approach a constant value. Initially the impact is entirely mechanical, and is about half as big as the asymptotic informational impact. The size of the informational impact is positively correlated to mechanical impact. For cases where the mechanical impact is zero for all times, we find that the informational impact is negative, i.e. buy market orders that have no mechanical impact at all generate strong negative price responses.

Prices for Tobacco and Nontobacco Products in Pharmacies Versus Other Stores: Results From Retail Marketing Surveillance in California and in the United States.

PubMed

Henriksen, Lisa; Schleicher, Nina C; Barker, Dianne C; Liu, Yawen; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

To examine disparities in the price of tobacco and nontobacco products in pharmacies compared with other types of stores. We recorded the prices of Marlboro, Newport, the cheapest cigarettes, and bottled water in a random sample of licensed tobacco retailers (n = 579) in California in 2014. We collected comparable data from retailers (n = 2603) in school enrollment zones for representative samples of US 8th, 10th, and 12th graders in 2012. Ordinary least squares regressions modeled pretax prices as a function of store type and neighborhood demographics. In both studies, the cheapest cigarettes cost significantly less in pharmacies than other stores; the average estimated difference was $0.47 to $1.19 less in California. We observed similar patterns for premium-brand cigarettes. Conversely, bottled water cost significantly more in pharmacies than elsewhere. Newport cost less in areas with higher proportions of African Americans; other cigarette prices were related to neighborhood income and age. Neighborhood demographics were not related to water prices. Compared with other stores, pharmacies charged customers less for cigarettes and more for bottled water. State and local policies to promote tobacco-free pharmacies would eliminate an important source of discounted cigarettes.

Measuring the impact of pollution on property prices in Madrid: objective versus subjective pollution indicators in spatial models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mínguez, Román; Montero, José-María; Fernández-Avilés, Gema

2013-04-01

Much work has been done in the context of the hedonic price theory to estimate the impact of air quality on housing prices. Research has employed objective measures of air quality, but only slightly confirms the hedonic theory in the best of cases: the implicit price function relating housing prices to air pollution will, ceteris paribus, be negatively sloped. This paper compares the performance of a spatial Durbin model when using both objective and subjective measures of pollution. On the one hand, we design an Air Pollution Indicator based on measured pollution as the objective measure of pollution. On the other hand, the subjective measure of pollution employed to characterize neighborhoods is the percentage of residents who declare that the neighborhood has serious pollution problems, the percentage being referred to as residents' perception of pollution. For comparison purposes, the empirical part of this research focuses on Madrid (Spain). The study employs a proprietary database containing information about the price and 27 characteristics of 11,796 owner-occupied single family homes. As far as the authors are aware, it is the largest database ever used to analyze the Madrid housing market. The results of the study clearly favor the use of subjective air quality measures.

A price- and-time-slot-negotiation mechanism for Cloud service reservations.

PubMed

Son, Seokho; Sim, Kwang Mong

2012-06-01

When making reservations for Cloud services, consumers and providers need to establish service-level agreements through negotiation. Whereas it is essential for both a consumer and a provider to reach an agreement on the price of a service and when to use the service, to date, there is little or no negotiation support for both price and time-slot negotiations (PTNs) for Cloud service reservations. This paper presents a multi-issue negotiation mechanism to facilitate the following: 1) PTNs between Cloud agents and 2) tradeoff between price and time-slot utilities. Unlike many existing negotiation mechanisms in which a negotiation agent can only make one proposal at a time, agents in this work are designed to concurrently make multiple proposals in a negotiation round that generate the same aggregated utility, differing only in terms of individual price and time-slot utilities. Another novelty of this work is formulating a novel time-slot utility function that characterizes preferences for different time slots. These ideas are implemented in an agent-based Cloud testbed. Using the testbed, experiments were carried out to compare this work with related approaches. Empirical results show that PTN agents reach faster agreements and achieve higher utilities than other related approaches. A case study was carried out to demonstrate the application of the PTN mechanism for pricing Cloud resources.

Environmental costs resulting from the use of hard coal to electricity generation in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stala-Szlugaj, Katarzyna; Grudziński, Zbigniew

2017-10-01

In the world's fuel mix used for generating electricity, the most common fossil fuel is coal. In the EU, coal combustion and electricity generation entail the need to purchase emission allowances (EUA) whose purchase costs affect the costs of electricity generation significantly. The research described in the article shows how current market conditions shape the profitability of generating electricity from coal and how Clean Dark Spread (CDS) changes as a function of changes in energy and coal prices at the assumed levels of emission and prices of EUA allowances. The article compares the results of CDS calculations in two variants. Areas have been highlighted where prices of both coal and EUA allowances cause CDS to assume values at which the prices of generated electricity do not cover the costs of fuel (i) and CO2 emission allowances, cover all costs (ii), or constitute positive prices (iii), but still do not cover all fixed costs. With higher power plant efficiency, CO2 emissions are lower (0.722 t/MWh). The costs of purchasing fuel required to generate 1 MWh of electricity are also lower. In such case—even with relatively high prices of coal—a power plant can achieve profitability of electricity generation.

Markov switching of the electricity supply curve and power prices dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mari, Carlo; Cananà, Lucianna

2012-02-01

Regime-switching models seem to well capture the main features of power prices behavior in deregulated markets. In a recent paper, we have proposed an equilibrium methodology to derive electricity prices dynamics from the interplay between supply and demand in a stochastic environment. In particular, assuming that the supply function is described by a power law where the exponent is a two-state strictly positive Markov process, we derived a regime switching dynamics of power prices in which regime switches are induced by transitions between Markov states. In this paper, we provide a dynamical model to describe the random behavior of power prices where the only non-Brownian component of the motion is endogenously introduced by Markov transitions in the exponent of the electricity supply curve. In this context, the stochastic process driving the switching mechanism becomes observable, and we will show that the non-Brownian component of the dynamics induced by transitions from Markov states is responsible for jumps and spikes of very high magnitude. The empirical analysis performed on three Australian markets confirms that the proposed approach seems quite flexible and capable of incorporating the main features of power prices time-series, thus reproducing the first four moments of log-returns empirical distributions in a satisfactory way.

Prices for Tobacco and Nontobacco Products in Pharmacies Versus Other Stores: Results From Retail Marketing Surveillance in California and in the United States

PubMed Central

Schleicher, Nina C.; Barker, Dianne C.; Liu, Yawen; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To examine disparities in the price of tobacco and nontobacco products in pharmacies compared with other types of stores. Methods. We recorded the prices of Marlboro, Newport, the cheapest cigarettes, and bottled water in a random sample of licensed tobacco retailers (n = 579) in California in 2014. We collected comparable data from retailers (n = 2603) in school enrollment zones for representative samples of US 8th, 10th, and 12th graders in 2012. Ordinary least squares regressions modeled pretax prices as a function of store type and neighborhood demographics. Results. In both studies, the cheapest cigarettes cost significantly less in pharmacies than other stores; the average estimated difference was $0.47 to $1.19 less in California. We observed similar patterns for premium-brand cigarettes. Conversely, bottled water cost significantly more in pharmacies than elsewhere. Newport cost less in areas with higher proportions of African Americans; other cigarette prices were related to neighborhood income and age. Neighborhood demographics were not related to water prices. Conclusions. Compared with other stores, pharmacies charged customers less for cigarettes and more for bottled water. State and local policies to promote tobacco-free pharmacies would eliminate an important source of discounted cigarettes. PMID:27552272

Discovery of New Classes of Compounds that Reactivate Acetylcholinesterase Inhibited by Organophosphates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katz, Francine S.; Pecic, Stevan; Tran, Timothy H.

Acetylcholinesterase (AChE) that has been covalently inhibited by organophosphate compounds (OPCs), such as nerve agents and pesticides, has traditionally been reactivated by using nucleophilic oximes. There is, however, a clearly recognized need for new classes of compounds with the ability to reactivate inhibited AChE with improved in vivo efficacy. Here we describe our discovery of new functional groups—Mannich phenols and general bases—that are capable of reactivating OPC-inhibited AChE more efficiently than standard oximes and we describe the cooperative mechanism by which these functionalities are delivered to the active site. These discoveries, supported by preliminary in vivo results and crystallographic data,more » significantly broaden the available approaches for reactivation of AChE.« less

Closed-Loop Multitarget Optimization for Discovery of New Emulsion Polymerization Recipes

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Self-optimization of chemical reactions enables faster optimization of reaction conditions or discovery of molecules with required target properties. The technology of self-optimization has been expanded to discovery of new process recipes for manufacture of complex functional products. A new machine-learning algorithm, specifically designed for multiobjective target optimization with an explicit aim to minimize the number of “expensive” experiments, guides the discovery process. This “black-box” approach assumes no a priori knowledge of chemical system and hence particularly suited to rapid development of processes to manufacture specialist low-volume, high-value products. The approach was demonstrated in discovery of process recipes for a semibatch emulsion copolymerization, targeting a specific particle size and full conversion. PMID:26435638

Inside Money, Procyclical Leverage, and Banking Catastrophes

PubMed Central

Brummitt, Charles D.; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J.

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency. PMID:25136959

Do Consumers Substitute Opium for Hashish? An Economic Analysis of Simultaneous Cannabinoid and Opiate Consumption in a Legal Regime

PubMed Central

Chandra, Madhur

2015-01-01

Aim To analyze interrelationships in the consumption of opiates and cannabinoids in a legal regime and, specifically, whether consumers of opiates and cannabinoids treat them as substitutes for each other. Method Econometric dynamic panel data models for opium consumption are estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM). A unique dataset containing information about opiate (opium) consumption from the Punjab province of British India for the years 1907–1918 is analyzed (n=272) as a function of its own price, the prices of two forms of cannabis (the leaf (bhang), and the resin (charas, or hashish)), and wage income. Cross-price elasticities are examined to reveal substitution or complementarity between opium and cannabis. Results Opium is a substitute for charas (or hashish), with a cross price elasticity (β3) of 0.14 (p < 0.05), but not for bhang (cannabis leaves; cross price elasticity = 0.00, p > 0.10). Opium consumption (β1 = 0.47 to 0.49, p < 0.01) shows properties of habit persistence consistent with addiction. The consumption of opium is slightly responsive (inelastic) to changes in its own price (β2 = −0.34 to −0.35, p < 0.05 to 0.01) and consumer wages (β4 = 0.15, p < 0.05). Conclusion Opium and hashish, a form of cannabis, are substitutes. In addition, opium consumption displays properties of habit persistence and slight price and wage income responsiveness (inelasticity) consistent with an addictive substance. PMID:26455552

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

PubMed

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

76 FR 80412 - New Postal Product

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-23

... Service of Filing Functionally Equivalent Inbound Competitive Multi-Service Agreement with a Foreign... application for non-public treatment of certain materials. The Postal Service also provided a redacted copy of... that the Postal Service proposed adding other functionally equivalent agreements as price categories...

[Frontiers in Live Bone Imaging Researches. Novel drug discovery by means of intravital bone imaging technology].

PubMed

Ishii, Masaru

2015-06-01

Recent advances in intravital bone imaging technology has enabled us to grasp the real cellular behaviors and functions in vivo , revolutionizing the field of drug discovery for novel therapeutics against intractable bone diseases. In this chapter, I introduce various updated information on pharmacological actions of several antibone resorptive agents, which could only be derived from advanced imaging techniques, and also discuss the future perspectives of this new trend in drug discovery.

Balancing novelty with confined chemical space in modern drug discovery.

PubMed

Medina-Franco, José L; Martinez-Mayorga, Karina; Meurice, Nathalie

2014-02-01

The concept of chemical space has broad applications in drug discovery. In response to the needs of drug discovery campaigns, different approaches are followed to efficiently populate, mine and select relevant chemical spaces that overlap with biologically relevant chemical spaces. This paper reviews major trends in current drug discovery and their impact on the mining and population of chemical space. We also survey different approaches to develop screening libraries with confined chemical spaces balancing physicochemical properties. In this context, the confinement is guided by criteria that can be divided in two broad categories: i) library design focused on a relevant therapeutic target or disease and ii) library design focused on the chemistry or a desired molecular function. The design and development of chemical libraries should be associated with the specific purpose of the library and the project goals. The high complexity of drug discovery and the inherent imperfection of individual experimental and computational technologies prompt the integration of complementary library design and screening approaches to expedite the identification of new and better drugs. Library design approaches including diversity-oriented synthesis, biological-oriented synthesis or combinatorial library design, to name a few, and the design of focused libraries driven by target/disease, chemical structure or molecular function are more efficient if they are guided by multi-parameter optimization. In this context, consideration of pharmaceutically relevant properties is essential for balancing novelty with chemical space in drug discovery.

Hypercaloric Diet Establishes Erectile Dysfunction in Rat: Mechanisms Underlying the Endothelial Damage

PubMed Central

de Souza, Iara L. L.; Barros, Bárbara C.; de Oliveira, Giuliana A.; Queiroga, Fernando R.; Toscano, Lydiane T.; Silva, Alexandre S.; Silva, Patrícia M.; Interaminense, Leylliane F. L.; Cavalcante, Fabiana de Andrade; da Silva, Bagnólia A.

2017-01-01

Obesity is characterized by an excessive increase in body mass, leading to endothelial damage that may favor the development of erectile dysfunction (ED). ED is defined as the inability to achieve or maintain a penile erection long enough to have a sexual intercourse. In this context, different ED models were developed, however the high price of special animals or the long period to establish the disease has limited studies in this field. Therefore, this study proposed to establish and characterize a novel model of ED in rats associated to a hypercaloric diet consumption. Animals were randomly divided into control group (CG), which received a standard diet, and obese group (OG), fed with a hypercaloric diet during 8 weeks. Rat's erectile function was evaluated in vivo and in vitro. Food and caloric intake of OG were reduced compared to CG, due to an increased diet energy efficiency. However, OG presented an increased body mass, inguinal, retroperitoneal and epididymal adipose tissues, as well as body adiposity index at the end of experimental protocol. In erectile function analysis, there was a decrease in the number and the latency of penile erections in OG. Additionally, the contractile reactivity of corpus cavernosum was increased in OG, favoring penile detumescence and related to a reduced nitric oxide bioavailability and an increased in contractile prostaglandins levels as a consequence of endothelial damage. Moreover, the endothelium-relaxation reactivity of corpus cavernosum was attenuated in OG associated to the oxidative stress. Thus, it was provided a model for advances in sexual dysfunction field and drug discovery for ED treatment. PMID:29085300

Dual function of MG53 in membrane repair and insulin signaling

PubMed Central

Tan, Tao; Ko, Young-Gyu; Ma, Jianjie

2016-01-01

MG53 is a member of the TRIM-family protein that acts as a key component of the cell membrane repair machinery. MG53 is also an E3-ligase that ubiquinates insulin receptor substrate-1 and controls insulin signaling in skeletal muscle cells. Since its discovery in 2009, research efforts have been devoted to translate this basic discovery into clinical applications in human degenerative and metabolic diseases. This review article highlights the dual function of MG53 in cell membrane repair and insulin signaling, the mechanism that underlies the control of MG53 function, and the therapeutic value of targeting MG53 function in regenerative medicine. [BMB Reports 2016; 49(8): 414-423] PMID:27174502

An explicit closed-form analytical solution for European options under the CGMY model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wenting; Du, Meiyu; Xu, Xiang

2017-01-01

In this paper, we consider the analytical pricing of European path-independent options under the CGMY model, which is a particular type of pure jump Le´vy process, and agrees well with many observed properties of the real market data by allowing the diffusions and jumps to have both finite and infinite activity and variation. It is shown that, under this model, the option price is governed by a fractional partial differential equation (FPDE) with both the left-side and right-side spatial-fractional derivatives. In comparison to derivatives of integer order, fractional derivatives at a point not only involve properties of the function at that particular point, but also the information of the function in a certain subset of the entire domain of definition. This ;globalness; of the fractional derivatives has added an additional degree of difficulty when either analytical methods or numerical solutions are attempted. Albeit difficult, we still have managed to derive an explicit closed-form analytical solution for European options under the CGMY model. Based on our solution, the asymptotic behaviors of the option price and the put-call parity under the CGMY model are further discussed. Practically, a reliable numerical evaluation technique for the current formula is proposed. With the numerical results, some analyses of impacts of four key parameters of the CGMY model on European option prices are also provided.

Demand assessment and price-elasticity estimation of quality-improved primary health care in Palestine: a contribution from the contingent valuation method.

PubMed

Mataria, Awad; Luchini, Stéphane; Daoud, Yousef; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2007-10-01

This paper proposes a new methodology to assess demand and price-elasticity for health care, based on patients' stated willingness to pay (WTP) values for certain aspects of health care quality improvements. A conceptual analysis of how respondents consider contingent valuation (CV) questions allowed us to specify a probability density function of stated WTP values, and consequently, to model a demand function for quality-improved health care, using a parametric survival approach. The model was empirically estimated using a CV study intended to assess patients' values for improving the quality of primary health care (PHC) services in Palestine. A random sample of 499 individuals was interviewed following medical consultation in four PHC centers. Quality was assessed using a multi-attribute approach; and respondents valued seven specific quality improvements using a decomposed valuation scenario and a payment card elicitation technique. Our results suggest an inelastic demand at low user fees levels, and when the price-increase is accompanied with substantial quality-improvements. Nevertheless, demand becomes more and more elastic if user fees continue to rise. On the other hand, patients' reactions to price-increase turn out to depend on their level of income. Our results can be used to design successful health care financing strategies that include a consideration of patients' preferences and financial capacities. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-10-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalentmore » (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%.« less

Forecasting petroleum discoveries in sparsely drilled areas: Nigeria and the North Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, D.H.

1988-01-01

Decline function methods for projecting future discoveries generally capture the crowding effects of wildcat wells on the discovery rate. However, these methods do not accommodate easily situations where exploration areas and horizons are expanding. In this paper, a method is presented that uses a mapping algorithm for separating these often countervailing influences. The method is applied to Nigeria and the North Sea. For an amount of future drilling equivalent to past drilling (825 wildcat wells), future discoveries (in resources found) for Nigeria are expected to decline by 68% per well but still amount to 8.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Similarly, for the total North Sea for an equivalent amount and mix among areas of past drilling (1322 wildcat wells), future discoveries are expected to amount to 17.9 billion BOE, whereas the average discovery rate per well is expected to decline by 71%. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. I. Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.

2007-01-01

European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.

Feynman perturbation expansion for the price of coupon bond options and swaptions in quantum finance. I. Theory.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E

2007-01-01

European options on coupon bonds are studied in a quantum field theory model of forward interest rates. Swaptions are briefly reviewed. An approximation scheme for the coupon bond option price is developed based on the fact that the volatility of the forward interest rates is a small quantity. The field theory for the forward interest rates is Gaussian, but when the payoff function for the coupon bond option is included it makes the field theory nonlocal and nonlinear. A perturbation expansion using Feynman diagrams gives a closed form approximation for the price of coupon bond option. A special case of the approximate bond option is shown to yield the industry standard one-factor HJM formula with exponential volatility.

Functional Metagenomics: Construction and High-Throughput Screening of Fosmid Libraries for Discovery of Novel Carbohydrate-Active Enzymes.

PubMed

Ufarté, Lisa; Bozonnet, Sophie; Laville, Elisabeth; Cecchini, Davide A; Pizzut-Serin, Sandra; Jacquiod, Samuel; Demanèche, Sandrine; Simonet, Pascal; Franqueville, Laure; Veronese, Gabrielle Potocki

2016-01-01

Activity-based metagenomics is one of the most efficient approaches to boost the discovery of novel biocatalysts from the huge reservoir of uncultivated bacteria. In this chapter, we describe a highly generic procedure of metagenomic library construction and high-throughput screening for carbohydrate-active enzymes. Applicable to any bacterial ecosystem, it enables the swift identification of functional enzymes that are highly efficient, alone or acting in synergy, to break down polysaccharides and oligosaccharides.

Spillover effects of Medicare fee reductions: evidence from ophthalmology.

PubMed

Mitchell, Jean M; Hadley, Jack; Gaskin, Darrell J

2002-09-01

Relatively little research has examined physicians' supply responses to Medicare fee cuts especially whether fee reductions for specific procedures have "spillover" effects that cause physicians to increase the supply of other services they provide. In this study we investigate whether ophthalmologist changed their provision of non-cataract services to Medicare patients over the time period 1992-1994, when the Medicare Fee Schedule (MFS) resulted in a 17.4% reduction in the average fee paid for a cataract extraction. Following the McGuire-Pauly model of physician behavior (McGuire and Pauly, 1991), we estimated a supply function for non-cataract procedures that included three price variables (own-price, a Medicare cross-price and a private cross-price) and an income effect. The Medicare cross-price and income variables capture spillover effects. Consistent with the model's predictions, we found that the Medicare cross-price is significant and negative, implying that a 10% reduction in the fee for a cataract extraction will cause ophthalmologists to supply about 5% more non-cataract services. Second, the income variable is highly significant, but its impact on the supply of non-cataract services is trivial. The suggests that physicians behave more like profit maximizing firms than target income seekers. We also found that the own-price and the private cross-price variables are highly significant and have the expected positive and negative effects on the volume of non-cataract services respectively. Our results demonstrate the importance of evaluating volume responses to fee changes for the array of services the physician performs, not just the procedure whose fee has been reduced. Focusing only on the procedure whose fee has been cut will yield an incomplete picture of how fee reductions for specific procedures affect physician supply decisions.

Sustainable Outreach: Lessons Learned from Space Update and Discovery Dome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiff, P. H.; Sumners, C.; Law, C. C.

2009-12-01

A sustainable program lives on past its initial funding cycle, and develops a network of users that ensures continued life, either by fees, advertising revenue, or by making the program more successful in later sponsored grants. Teachers like free things, so having a sponsor for products such as lithographs or CD-Roms is key to wide distribution. In 1994 we developed “Space Update®”, under the NASA “Public Use of the Internet” program. It has new editions annually, with over 40,000 distributed so far (many purchased but most free at teacher and student workshops). In 1996 we created a special edition “Space Weather®”, which includes the space weather module from Space Update plus other resources. Initially developed with funding from the IMAGE mission, it is now sponsored by Cluster and MMS. A new edition is published annually and distributed in the “Sun-Earth Day” packet; total distribution now exceeds 180,000. “Earth Update” was created in 1999 under cooperative agreement “Museums Teaching Planet Earth”. It now has a total distribution of over 20,000. Both Earth Update and Space Update were developed to be museum kiosk software, and more than 15 museums have them on display. Over 4,000 users are active in our e-Teacher network and 577 in our museum educator network. Although these can certainly be considered successful because of their longevity and user base, we have had a far more dramatic sustainable program arise in the last six years… the “Discovery Dome®”. Invented at HMNS and developed under NASA Cooperative Agreement “Immersive Earth”, this dome was the first digital portable planetarium that also showed fulldome movies with an interactive interface (first shown to the public at the Dec 2003 AGU meeting). The Discovery Dome network (tinyurl.com/DiscDome) has spun those initial 6 NASA-funded domes into over 90 installations in 22 states and 23 countries. Creating high quality content is quite expensive and so needs sponsors, but the customers (typically school districts or museums) will pay a reasonable price for quality equipment to show them on. Creating an innovative, exciting product at an affordable price is certainly key to sustainability. If space permits, we will put up a dome as a demo in the poster session. The software and the dome will be on view at the "Exploration Station" the Sunday before AGU.

How Volatilities Nonlocal in Time Affect the Price Dynamics in Complex Financial Systems

PubMed Central

Tan, Lei; Zheng, Bo; Chen, Jun-Jie; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2015-01-01

What is the dominating mechanism of the price dynamics in financial systems is of great interest to scientists. The problem whether and how volatilities affect the price movement draws much attention. Although many efforts have been made, it remains challenging. Physicists usually apply the concepts and methods in statistical physics, such as temporal correlation functions, to study financial dynamics. However, the usual volatility-return correlation function, which is local in time, typically fluctuates around zero. Here we construct dynamic observables nonlocal in time to explore the volatility-return correlation, based on the empirical data of hundreds of individual stocks and 25 stock market indices in different countries. Strikingly, the correlation is discovered to be non-zero, with an amplitude of a few percent and a duration of over two weeks. This result provides compelling evidence that past volatilities nonlocal in time affect future returns. Further, we introduce an agent-based model with a novel mechanism, that is, the asymmetric trading preference in volatile and stable markets, to understand the microscopic origin of the volatility-return correlation nonlocal in time. PMID:25723154

A Two-Phase Model for Trade Matching and Price Setting in Double Auction Water Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Tingting; Zheng, Hang; Zhao, Jianshi; Liu, Yicheng; Tang, Pingzhong; Yang, Y. C. Ethan; Wang, Zhongjing

2018-04-01

Delivery in water markets is generally operated by agencies through channel systems, which imposes physical and institutional market constraints. Many water markets allow water users to post selling and buying requests on a board. However, water users may not be able to choose efficiently when the information (including the constraints) becomes complex. This study proposes an innovative two-phase model to address this problem based on practical experience in China. The first phase seeks and determines the optimal assignment that maximizes the incremental improvement of the system's social welfare according to the bids and asks in the water market. The second phase sets appropriate prices under constraints. Applying this model to China's Xiying Irrigation District shows that it can improve social welfare more than the current "pool exchange" method can. Within the second phase, we evaluate three objective functions (minimum variance, threshold-based balance, and two-sided balance), which represent different managerial goals. The threshold-based balance function should be preferred by most users, while the two-sided balance should be preferred by players who post extreme prices.

Quantum finance Hamiltonian for coupon bond European and barrier options.

PubMed

Baaquie, Belal E

2008-03-01

Coupon bond European and barrier options are financial derivatives that can be analyzed in the Hamiltonian formulation of quantum finance. Forward interest rates are modeled as a two-dimensional quantum field theory and its Hamiltonian and state space is defined. European and barrier options are realized as transition amplitudes of the time integrated Hamiltonian operator. The double barrier option for a financial instrument is "knocked out" (terminated with zero value) if the price of the underlying instrument exceeds or falls below preset limits; the barrier option is realized by imposing boundary conditions on the eigenfunctions of the forward interest rates' Hamiltonian. The price of the European coupon bond option and the zero coupon bond barrier option are calculated. It is shown that, is general, the constraint function for a coupon bond barrier option can -- to a good approximation -- be linearized. A calculation using an overcomplete set of eigenfunctions yields an approximate price for the coupon bond barrier option, which is given in the form of an integral of a factor that results from the barrier condition times another factor that arises from the payoff function.

The Effect of Temperature on the Electricity Demand: An Empirical Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Kim, I. G.; Park, K. J.; Yoo, S. H.

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function in Korea with quarterly data of average temperature, GDP and electricity price over the period 2005-2013. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.569 and 0.631 respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. Moreover, long-run income and price elasticities are estimated to be 1.589 and -1.433 respectively. Both of results reveal that the demand for electricity demand is about 15.2℃. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model rather than conventional model. Acknowledgements: This research was carried out as a part of "Development and application of technology for weather forecast" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shyer, E.B.

The New York State Development of Environmental Conservation`s Division of Mineral Resources is responsible for regulating the oil and gas industry and receiving operator`s annual well production reports. Production year 1970 and 627 active gas wells with reported production of 3 billion cubic feet by New York State operators. Ten years later in 1980, production had more than tripled to 15.5 billion cubic feet and reported active gas wells increased to 1,966. During 1990, reported gas production was 25 billion cubic feet from 5,536 active gas wells. The average production per gas well in 1970 was 4,773 thousand cubic feet.more » Average gas production per well peaked in 1978 with a reported production of 14 billion cubic feet by 1,431 active gas wells which averaged 9,821 thousand cubic feet per well. By 1994 the average production per well had decreased to 3,800 thousand cubic feet, a decrease of approximately 60%. The decrease in average well production is more a reflection of the majority of older wells reaching the lower end of their decline curve than a decrease in overall per well production. The number of completed gas wells increased following the rising price of gas. In 1970 gas was $0.30 per thousand cubic feet. By 1984 the price per thousand cubic feet had peaked at $4. After 1984 the price of gas started to decline while the number of active gas wells continued to increase. Sharp increases in gas production for certain counties such as Steuben in 1972 and 1973 and Chautauqua in 1980-83 reflects the discoveries of new fields such as Adrian Reef and Bass Island, respectively. The Stagecoach Field discovered in 1989 in Tioga County is the newest high producing field in New York State.« less

Gas from Mexico: the brightest prospect for interim relief for U. S. consumers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Falck, E.

1977-08-04

The U. S. natural gas industry is experiencing its greatest shortage and prices are continuing to advance to new highs. The regulated price for ''new'' gas has increased from 50 cents to $1.42 per Mcf plus escalations, and the Carter energy plan would increase this price further to $1.75 per Mcf. However, assuming the most optimistic results from conservation and new discoveries of gas, there remains an urgent need for additional sources of supply. The new government of Mexico is showing great interest in developing its natural gas and oil resources and also showing a new cordial atmosphere towards themore » U. S. This new atmosphere opens up the possibility for the U. S. to provide finance-capital, steel, compressors, and drilling equipment in exchange for Mexican natural gas. The transportation facilities for natural gas from Mexico will be less costly than from Alaska's North Slope. Equally important, gas can be brought in from Mexico at a much earlier date than from the North Slope. Pemex (Petroleos Mexicanos) has announced plans to construct a 780-mile, 48-inch pipeline to transport natural gas from the Reforma sweetening plant at Cardenas, Chiapas, to Reynosa where it can connect with U. S. pipelines at McAllen, Texas. Shipments of gas could begin within two or three years if satisfactory gas purchase contracts, financing, and government approval can be completed promptly. This pipeline is estimatedto cost in the neighborhood of $1 billion and could be completed by 1979. Methods of delivering natural gas to the U. S. from the North Slope, Mexican oil and gas reserves, and the economics of the Pemex gasoline and possible U. S. financing are discussed. (MCW)« less

Battle for Climate and Scarcity Rents: Beyond the Linear-Quadratic Case.

PubMed

Kagan, Mark; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Withagen, Cees

Industria imports oil, produces final goods and wishes to mitigate global warming. Oilrabia exports oil and buys final goods from the other country. Industria uses the carbon tax to impose an import tariff on oil and steal some of Oilrabia's scarcity rent. Conversely, Oilrabia has monopoly power and sets the oil price to steal some of Industria's climate rent. We analyze the relative speeds of oil extraction and carbon accumulation under these strategic interactions for various production function specifications and compare these with the efficient and competitive outcomes. We prove that for the class of HARA production functions, the oil price is initially higher and subsequently lower in the open-loop Nash equilibrium than in the efficient outcome. The oil extraction rate is thus initially too low and in later stages too high. The HARA class includes linear, loglinear and semi-loglinear demand functions as special cases. For non-HARA production functions, Oilrabia may in the open-loop Nash equilibrium initially price oil lower than the efficient level, thus resulting in more oil extraction and climate damages. We also contrast the open-loop Nash and efficient outcomes numerically with the feedback Nash outcomes. We find that the optimal carbon tax path in the feedback Nash equilibrium is flatter than in the open-loop Nash equilibrium. It turns out that for certain demand functions using the carbon tax as an import tariff may hurt consumers' welfare as the resulting user cost of oil is so high that the fall in welfare wipes out the gain from higher tariff revenues.

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: A behavioral economics approach

PubMed Central

Smith, Tracy T.; Sved, Alan F.; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Donny, Eric C.

2015-01-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price = cost / reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking—an assumption made by the unit price approach. PMID:25025523

Nicotine reduction as an increase in the unit price of cigarettes: a behavioral economics approach.

PubMed

Smith, Tracy T; Sved, Alan F; Hatsukami, Dorothy K; Donny, Eric C

2014-11-01

Urgent action is needed to reduce the harm caused by smoking. Product standards that reduce the addictiveness of cigarettes are now possible both in the U.S. and in countries party to the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Specifically, standards that required substantially reduced nicotine content in cigarettes could enable cessation in smokers and prevent future smoking among current non-smokers. Behavioral economics uses principles from the field of microeconomics to characterize how consumption of a reinforcer changes as a function of the unit price of that reinforcer (unit price=cost/reinforcer magnitude). A nicotine reduction policy might be considered an increase in the unit price of nicotine because smokers are paying more per unit of nicotine. This perspective allows principles from behavioral economics to be applied to nicotine reduction research questions, including how nicotine consumption, smoking behavior, use of other tobacco products, and use of other drugs of abuse are likely to be affected. This paper reviews the utility of this approach and evaluates the notion that a reduction in nicotine content is equivalent to a reduction in the reinforcement value of smoking-an assumption made by the unit price approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of an Agent-based Model to Analyze Contemporary Helium Markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riddle, Matthew E.; Uckun, Canan; Conzelmann, Guenter

Although U.S. helium demand has remained relatively flat since 2009, exports of helium have increased significantly since then, driven primarily by demand for electronic and semiconductor manufacturing in Asia. In the midst of this global demand shift, the Helium Act dictates a new procedure for pricing and distributing the gas through a reserve that historically functioned as a loose “oligarchy.” The new procedure requires prices to be determined by the open market through auctions and a survey of market prices, as opposed to increasing prices according to the consumer price index. Response to these changes has caused temporary shortages, pricemore » increases, and a significant increase in the development of the helium extraction technologies used to produce helium from formerly marginal sources. Technologies are being developed and refined to extract helium from formerly low-yielding natural gas fields containing much lower amounts of helium than the previously considered economic threshold of 0.3%. Combining these transformative policies with the potential for new and significant global supplies from Qatar, Algeria, and Russia could lead to new and unforeseen market behaviors and reactions from global helium markets. The objective of the project is to analyze the global helium markets.« less

Statistics of petroleum exploration in the Caribbean, Latin America, Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa, non-communist Asia, and the southwestern Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Root, David H.

1993-01-01

This circular presents a summary of the geographic location, amount, and results of petroleum exploration, including an atlas showing explored and delineated prospective areas through 1990. The data show that wildcat well drilling has continued through the last decade to expand the prospective area by about 40,000 to 50,000 square miles per year. However, the area delineated by 1970, which represents only about one-third of the prospective area delineated to date, contains about 80 percent of the oil discovered to date. This discovery distribution suggests that, from an overall prospective, the industry was successful in delineating the most productive areas early. The price increases of the 1970's and 1980's allowed the commercial exploration and development of fields in high-cost areas, such as the North Sea and Campos Basin, Brazil. Data on natural-gas discoveries also indicate that gas will be supplying an increasing share of the worldwide energy market. The size distribution of petroleum provinces is highly skewed. The skewed distribution and the stability in province size orderings suggest that intense exploration in identified provinces will not change the distribution of oil within the study area. Although evidence of the field-growth phenomenon outside the United States and Canada is presented, the data are not yet reliable enough for projecting future growth. The field-growth phenomenon implies not only that recent discoveries are substantially understated, but that field growth could become the dominant source of additions to proved reserves in the future.

Applying ADLs to Assess Emerging Industry Specifications for Dynamic Discovery of Ad Hoc Network Services

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-31

function of Jini, UPnP, SLP, Bluetooth , and HAVi • Projected specific UML models for Jini, UPnP, and SLP • Developed a Rapide Model of Jini...is used by all JINI entities in directed -- discovery mode. It is part of the SCM_Discovery -- Module. Sends Unicast messages to SCMs on list of... SCMS to be discovered until all SCMS are found. -- Receives updates from SCM DB of discovered SCMs and -- removes SCMs accordingly -- NOTE

BioGraph: unsupervised biomedical knowledge discovery via automated hypothesis generation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

We present BioGraph, a data integration and data mining platform for the exploration and discovery of biomedical information. The platform offers prioritizations of putative disease genes, supported by functional hypotheses. We show that BioGraph can retrospectively confirm recently discovered disease genes and identify potential susceptibility genes, outperforming existing technologies, without requiring prior domain knowledge. Additionally, BioGraph allows for generic biomedical applications beyond gene discovery. BioGraph is accessible at http://www.biograph.be. PMID:21696594

Biological Awareness: Statements for Self-Discovery.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edington, D.W.; Cunningham, Lee

This guide to biological awareness through guided self-discovery is based on 51 single focus statements concerning the human body. For each statement there are explanations of the underlying physiological principles and suggested activities and discussion ideas to encourage understanding of the statement in terms of the human body's functions,…

From Mere Coincidences to Meaningful Discoveries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

2007-01-01

People's reactions to coincidences are often cited as an illustration of the irrationality of human reasoning about chance. We argue that coincidences may be better understood in terms of rational statistical inference, based on their functional role in processes of causal discovery and theory revision. We present a formal definition of…

CTD² Dashboard: a searchable web interface to connect validated results from the Cancer Target Discovery and Development Network* | Office of Cancer Genomics

Cancer.gov

The Cancer Target Discovery and Development (CTD2) Network aims to use functional genomics to accelerate the translation of high-throughput and high-content genomic and small-molecule data towards use in precision oncology.

Pricing for a basket of LCDS under fuzzy environments.

PubMed

Wu, Liang; Liu, Jie-Fang; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhuang, Ya-Ming

2016-01-01

This paper looks at both the prepayment risks of housing mortgage loan credit default swaps (LCDS) as well as the fuzziness and hesitation of investors as regards prepayments by borrowers. It further discusses the first default pricing of a basket of LCDS in a fuzzy environment by using stochastic analysis and triangular intuition-based fuzzy set theory. Through the 'fuzzification' of the sensitivity coefficient in the prepayment intensity, this paper describes the dynamic features of mortgage housing values using the One-factor copula function and concludes with a formula for 'fuzzy' pricing the first default of a basket of LCDS. Using analog simulation to analyze the sensitivity of hesitation, we derive a model that considers what the LCDS fair premium is in a fuzzy environment, including a pure random environment. In addition, the model also shows that a suitable pricing range will give investors more flexible choices and make the predictions of the model closer to real market values.

A stochastic hybrid model for pricing forward-start variance swaps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roslan, Teh Raihana Nazirah

2017-11-01

Recently, market players have been exposed to the astounding increase in the trading volume of variance swaps. In this paper, the forward-start nature of a variance swap is being inspected, where hybridizations of equity and interest rate models are used to evaluate the price of discretely-sampled forward-start variance swaps. The Heston stochastic volatility model is being extended to incorporate the dynamics of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic interest rate model. This is essential since previous studies on variance swaps were mainly focusing on instantaneous-start variance swaps without considering the interest rate effects. This hybrid model produces an efficient semi-closed form pricing formula through the development of forward characteristic functions. The performance of this formula is investigated via simulations to demonstrate how the formula performs for different sampling times and against the real market scenario. Comparison done with the Monte Carlo simulation which was set as our main reference point reveals that our pricing formula gains almost the same precision in a shorter execution time.

The Rare Earth Magnet Industry and Rare Earth Price in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Kaihong

2014-07-01

In the past four years, the price of rare earth metal fluctuates sharply for many reasons. Currently, it has become more stable and more reasonable. This presentation is focused on the effect about the rare earth metal price. Some motor manufacturers have shifted from rare earth permanent magnet to ferrite magnet. Many motor manufacturers changed the design for the motor cooling system to make the motor function at a lower temperature. Thus the consumption of Dy can be markedly reduced. As for manufacturer of NdFeB magnet, we are also trying to optimize our process to reduce to dependence of HREE such as Dy and Tb. HS process have been introduced to solve the problem. With more and more people focusing and engaging on the REE industry, the price of REE will be more transparent without too many fluctuations. China is considering the problems of balancing the environment, energy sources, and labor sources. The application field about NdFeB such as wind turbine generator, HEV/EV, FA /OA is flourishing.

Stochastic differential equation (SDE) model of opening gold share price of bursa saham malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, F. N.; Rahman, H. A.; Bahar, A.

2017-09-01

Black and Scholes option pricing model is one of the most recognized stochastic differential equation model in mathematical finance. Two parameter estimation methods have been utilized for the Geometric Brownian model (GBM); historical and discrete method. The historical method is a statistical method which uses the property of independence and normality logarithmic return, giving out the simplest parameter estimation. Meanwhile, discrete method considers the function of density of transition from the process of diffusion normal log which has been derived from maximum likelihood method. These two methods are used to find the parameter estimates samples of Malaysians Gold Share Price data such as: Financial Times and Stock Exchange (FTSE) Bursa Malaysia Emas, and Financial Times and Stock Exchange (FTSE) Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah. Modelling of gold share price is essential since fluctuation of gold affects worldwide economy nowadays, including Malaysia. It is found that discrete method gives the best parameter estimates than historical method due to the smallest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value.

How the discovery of ribozymes cast RNA in the roles of both chicken and egg in origin-of-life theories.

PubMed

Sankaran, Neeraja

2012-12-01

Scientific theories about the origin-of-life theories have historically been characterized by the chicken-and-egg problem of which essential aspect of life was the first to appear, replication or self-sustenance. By the 1950s the question was cast in molecular terms and DNA and proteins had come to represent the carriers of the two functions. Meanwhile, RNA, the other nucleic acid, had played a capricious role in origin theories. Because it contained building blocks very similar to DNA, biologists recognized early that RNA could store information in its linear sequences. With the discovery in the 1980s that RNA molecules were capable of biological catalysis, a function hitherto ascribed to proteins alone, RNA took on the role of the single entity that could act as both chicken and egg. Within a few years of the discovery of these catalytic RNAs (ribozymes) scientists had formulated an RNA World hypothesis that posited an early phase in the evolution of life where all key functions were performed by RNA molecules. This paper traces the history the role of RNA in origin-of-life theories with a focus on how the discovery of ribozymes influenced the discourse. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neoclassic drug discovery: the case for lead generation using phenotypic and functional approaches.

PubMed

Lee, Jonathan A; Berg, Ellen L

2013-12-01

Innovation and new molecular entity production by the pharmaceutical industry has been below expectations. Surprisingly, more first-in-class small-molecule drugs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) between 1999 and 2008 were identified by functional phenotypic lead generation strategies reminiscent of pre-genomics pharmacology than contemporary molecular targeted strategies that encompass the vast majority of lead generation efforts. This observation, in conjunction with the difficulty in validating molecular targets for drug discovery, has diminished the impact of the "genomics revolution" and has led to a growing grassroots movement and now broader trend in pharma to reconsider the use of modern physiology-based or phenotypic drug discovery (PDD) strategies. This "From the Guest Editors" column provides an introduction and overview of the two-part special issues of Journal of Biomolecular Screening on PDD. Terminology and the business case for use of PDD are defined. Key issues such as assay performance, chemical optimization, target identification, and challenges to the organization and implementation of PDD are discussed. Possible solutions for these challenges and a new neoclassic vision for PDD that combines phenotypic and functional approaches with technology innovations resulting from the genomics-driven era of target-based drug discovery (TDD) are also described. Finally, an overview of the manuscripts in this special edition is provided.

Potential Arbitrage Revenue of Energy Storage Systems in PJM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salles, Mauricio; Huang, Junling; Aziz, Michael

The volatility of electricity prices is attracting interest in the opportunity of providing net revenue by energy arbitrage. We analyzed the potential revenue of a generic Energy Storage System (ESS) in 7395 different locations within the electricity markets of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland interconnection (PJM), the largest U.S. regional transmission organization, using hourly locational marginal prices over the seven-year period 2008–2014. Assuming a price-taking ESS with perfect foresight in the real-time market, we optimized the charge-discharge profile to determine the maximum potential revenue for a 1 MW system as a function of energy/power ratio, or rated discharge duration, from 1 to 14more » h, including a limited analysis of sensitivity to round-trip efficiency. We determined minimum potential revenue with a similar analysis of the day-ahead market. We presented the distribution over the set of nodes and years of price, price volatility, and maximum potential arbitrage revenue. From these results, we determined the break even overnight installed cost of an ESS below which arbitrage would be profitable, its dependence on rated discharge duration, its distribution over grid nodes, and its variation over the years. We showed that dispatch into real-time markets based on day-ahead market settlement prices is a simple, feasible method that raises the lower bound on the achievable arbitrage revenue.« less

Stochastic volatility models and Kelvin waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipton, Alex; Sepp, Artur

2008-08-01

We use stochastic volatility models to describe the evolution of an asset price, its instantaneous volatility and its realized volatility. In particular, we concentrate on the Stein and Stein model (SSM) (1991) for the stochastic asset volatility and the Heston model (HM) (1993) for the stochastic asset variance. By construction, the volatility is not sign definite in SSM and is non-negative in HM. It is well known that both models produce closed-form expressions for the prices of vanilla option via the Lewis-Lipton formula. However, the numerical pricing of exotic options by means of the finite difference and Monte Carlo methods is much more complex for HM than for SSM. Until now, this complexity was considered to be an acceptable price to pay for ensuring that the asset volatility is non-negative. We argue that having negative stochastic volatility is a psychological rather than financial or mathematical problem, and advocate using SSM rather than HM in most applications. We extend SSM by adding volatility jumps and obtain a closed-form expression for the density of the asset price and its realized volatility. We also show that the current method of choice for solving pricing problems with stochastic volatility (via the affine ansatz for the Fourier-transformed density function) can be traced back to the Kelvin method designed in the 19th century for studying wave motion problems arising in fluid dynamics.

Potential Arbitrage Revenue of Energy Storage Systems in PJM

DOE PAGES

Salles, Mauricio; Huang, Junling; Aziz, Michael; ...

2017-07-27

The volatility of electricity prices is attracting interest in the opportunity of providing net revenue by energy arbitrage. We analyzed the potential revenue of a generic Energy Storage System (ESS) in 7395 different locations within the electricity markets of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland interconnection (PJM), the largest U.S. regional transmission organization, using hourly locational marginal prices over the seven-year period 2008–2014. Assuming a price-taking ESS with perfect foresight in the real-time market, we optimized the charge-discharge profile to determine the maximum potential revenue for a 1 MW system as a function of energy/power ratio, or rated discharge duration, from 1 to 14more » h, including a limited analysis of sensitivity to round-trip efficiency. We determined minimum potential revenue with a similar analysis of the day-ahead market. We presented the distribution over the set of nodes and years of price, price volatility, and maximum potential arbitrage revenue. From these results, we determined the break even overnight installed cost of an ESS below which arbitrage would be profitable, its dependence on rated discharge duration, its distribution over grid nodes, and its variation over the years. We showed that dispatch into real-time markets based on day-ahead market settlement prices is a simple, feasible method that raises the lower bound on the achievable arbitrage revenue.« less

Intersecting transcriptomic profiling technologies and long non-coding RNA function in lung adenocarcinoma: discovery, mechanisms, and therapeutic applications

PubMed Central

Castillo, Jonathan; Stueve, Theresa R.; Marconett, Crystal N.

2017-01-01

Previously thought of as junk transcripts and pseudogene remnants, long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have come into their own over the last decade as an essential component of cellular activity, regulating a plethora of functions within multicellular organisms. lncRNAs are now known to participate in development, cellular homeostasis, immunological processes, and the development of disease. With the advent of next generation sequencing technology, hundreds of thousands of lncRNAs have been identified. However, movement beyond mere discovery to the understanding of molecular processes has been stymied by the complicated genomic structure, tissue-restricted expression, and diverse regulatory roles lncRNAs play. In this review, we will focus on lncRNAs involved in lung cancer, the most common cause of cancer-related death in the United States and worldwide. We will summarize their various methods of discovery, provide consensus rankings of deregulated lncRNAs in lung cancer, and describe in detail the limited functional analysis that has been undertaken so far. PMID:29113413

The discovery of human auditory-motor entrainment and its role in the development of neurologic music therapy.

PubMed

Thaut, Michael H

2015-01-01

The discovery of rhythmic auditory-motor entrainment in clinical populations was a historical breakthrough in demonstrating for the first time a neurological mechanism linking music to retraining brain and behavioral functions. Early pilot studies from this research center were followed up by a systematic line of research studying rhythmic auditory stimulation on motor therapies for stroke, Parkinson's disease, traumatic brain injury, cerebral palsy, and other movement disorders. The comprehensive effects on improving multiple aspects of motor control established the first neuroscience-based clinical method in music, which became the bedrock for the later development of neurologic music therapy. The discovery of entrainment fundamentally shifted and extended the view of the therapeutic properties of music from a psychosocially dominated view to a view using the structural elements of music to retrain motor control, speech and language function, and cognitive functions such as attention and memory. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of encoded library technology (ELT) to a protein-protein interaction target: discovery of a potent class of integrin lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1 (LFA-1) antagonists.

PubMed

Kollmann, Christopher S; Bai, Xiaopeng; Tsai, Ching-Hsuan; Yang, Hongfang; Lind, Kenneth E; Skinner, Steven R; Zhu, Zhengrong; Israel, David I; Cuozzo, John W; Morgan, Barry A; Yuki, Koichi; Xie, Can; Springer, Timothy A; Shimaoka, Motomu; Evindar, Ghotas

2014-04-01

The inhibition of protein-protein interactions remains a challenge for traditional small molecule drug discovery. Here we describe the use of DNA-encoded library technology for the discovery of small molecules that are potent inhibitors of the interaction between lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1 and its ligand intercellular adhesion molecule 1. A DNA-encoded library with a potential complexity of 4.1 billion compounds was exposed to the I-domain of the target protein and the bound ligands were affinity selected, yielding an enriched small-molecule hit family. Compounds representing this family were synthesized without their DNA encoding moiety and found to inhibit the lymphocyte function-associated antigen 1/intercellular adhesion molecule-1 interaction with submicromolar potency in both ELISA and cell adhesion assays. Re-synthesized compounds conjugated to DNA or a fluorophore were demonstrated to bind to cells expressing the target protein. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Biomarkers: "Found in translation"].

PubMed

Lockhart, Brian P; Walther, Bernard

2009-04-01

Despite continued increase in global Pharma R & D expenditure, the number of innovative drugs obtaining market approval has declined since 1994. The pharmaceutical industry is now entering a crucial juncture where increasing rates of attrition in clinical drug development as well as increasing development timelines are impacted by external factors such as intense regulatory pricing and safety pressures, increasing sales erosion due to generics, as well as exponential increases in the costs of bringing a drug to market. Despite these difficulties, numerous opportunities exist such as multiple unmet medical needs, the increasing incidence of certain diseases such as Alzheimer's disease, cancer, diabetes and obesity due to demographic changes, as well as the emergence of evolving markets such as China, India, and Eastern Europe. Consequently, Pharma is now responding to this challenge by improving both the productivity and the innovation in its drug discovery and development pipelines. In this regard, the advent of new technologies and expertise such as genomics, proteomics, structural biology, and molecular informatics in an integrated systems biology approach also provides a powerful opportunity for Pharma to address some of these difficulties. The key features behind this new strategy imply a discovery process based on an improved understanding of the molecular mechanism of diseases and drugs, translational research that places the patient at the center of the research process, and the application of biomarkers throughout the discovery and development phases. Moreover, new paradigms are required to improve target validation and develop more predictive cellular and animal models of human pathologies, a greater capacity in informatics-based analysis, and, consequently, a greater access to the vast sources of accumulating biological data and its integrated analysis. In the present review, we will address some of these issues and in particular emphasize how the application of biomarkers could potentially lead to improved productivity, quality, and innovation in drug discovery and ultimately better and safer medicines with improved therapeutic efficacy in specific pathologies for targeted patients.

Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, M. E.

2013-12-01

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used to describe the connection between shocks and food prices, and to demonstrate the importance of these metrics in overall outcomes in food-insecure communities.

Total Library Computerization for Windows.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Combs, Joseph, Jr.

1999-01-01

Presents a general review of features of version 2.1 of Total Library Computerization (TLC) for Windows from On Point, Inc. Includes information about pricing, hardware and operating systems, modules/functions available, user interface, security, on-line catalog functions, circulation, cataloging, and documentation and online help. A table…

A Mathematical Model for Fixed-Price-Incentive-Firm Contracts

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-12-17

McGraw- Hill Book Company, New York, NY. 1985. 83 13. Schermerhorn , John R . & Hunt, James G. & Osborn, Richard N., Managing Organizational Býehavior, 2nd...Advisor David R . W 1 le, , Chairman, Department of Administr ivE Sciences iii ABSTRACT This research focuses on a mathematical model for Fixed- Price...intercept or sTC+Tn+C,,- and f(TC-30) is the function f(x) evaluated at TC-30. Govt Cost v Actual Cost Govt Cost = CPCP . .... " s r do c n c

Convergence analysis of a monotonic penalty method for American option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kai; Yang, Xiaoqi; Teo, Kok Lay

2008-12-01

This paper is devoted to study the convergence analysis of a monotonic penalty method for pricing American options. A monotonic penalty method is first proposed to solve the complementarity problem arising from the valuation of American options, which produces a nonlinear degenerated parabolic PDE with Black-Scholes operator. Based on the variational theory, the solvability and convergence properties of this penalty approach are established in a proper infinite dimensional space. Moreover, the convergence rate of the combination of two power penalty functions is obtained.

Pricing and simulation for real estate index options: Radial basis point interpolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Pu; Zou, Dong; Wang, Jiayue

2018-06-01

This study employs the meshfree radial basis point interpolation (RBPI) for pricing real estate derivatives contingent on real estate index. This method combines radial and polynomial basis functions, which can guarantee the interpolation scheme with Kronecker property and effectively improve accuracy. An exponential change of variables, a mesh refinement algorithm and the Richardson extrapolation are employed in this study to implement the RBPI. Numerical results are presented to examine the computational efficiency and accuracy of our method.

Methods and tools to simulate the effect of economic instruments in complex water resources systems. Application to the Jucar river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-05-01

The main challenge of the BLUEPRINT to safeguard Europe's water resources (EC, 2012) is to guarantee that enough good quality water is available for people's needs, the economy and the environment. In this sense, economic policy instruments such as water pricing policies and water markets can be applied to enhance efficient use of water. This paper presents a method based on hydro-economic tools to assess the effect of economic instruments on water resource systems. Hydro-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure operation at the river basin scale, by simultaneously combining engineering, hydrologic and economic aspects of water resources management. The method made use of the simulation and optimization hydroeconomic tools SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water resources among the users according to priorities and operating rules, and evaluate economic scarcity costs of the system by using economic demand functions. The model's objective function is designed so that the system aims to meet the operational targets (ranked according to priorities) at each month while following the system operating rules. The optimization tool OPTIGAMS allocates water resources based on an economic efficiency criterion: maximize net benefits, or alternatively, minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on marginal resource opportunity costs (MROC; Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2013). Storage-dependent step pricing functions are derived from the time series of MROC values at a certain reservoir in the system. These water pricing policies are defined based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), so that when water storage is high, the MROC is low, while low storage (drought periods) will be associated to high MROC and therefore, high prices. We also illustrate the use of OPTIGAMS to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization, without considering the potential effect of transaction costs. These methods and tools have been applied to the Jucar River basin (Spain). The results show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536), SAWARES (Plan Nacional I+D+i 2008-2011, CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and C02-02), SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness; and EC 7th Framework Project ENHANCE (n. 308438) Reference: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Alvarez-Mendiola, E., and Andreu, J., 2013. Design of Efficient Water Pricing Policies Integrating Basinwide Resource Opportunity Costs. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139(5): 583-592.

Integrated Computational Analysis of Genes Associated with Human Hereditary Insensitivity to Pain. A Drug Repurposing Perspective

PubMed Central

Lötsch, Jörn; Lippmann, Catharina; Kringel, Dario; Ultsch, Alfred

2017-01-01

Genes causally involved in human insensitivity to pain provide a unique molecular source of studying the pathophysiology of pain and the development of novel analgesic drugs. The increasing availability of “big data” enables novel research approaches to chronic pain while also requiring novel techniques for data mining and knowledge discovery. We used machine learning to combine the knowledge about n = 20 genes causally involved in human hereditary insensitivity to pain with the knowledge about the functions of thousands of genes. An integrated computational analysis proposed that among the functions of this set of genes, the processes related to nervous system development and to ceramide and sphingosine signaling pathways are particularly important. This is in line with earlier suggestions to use these pathways as therapeutic target in pain. Following identification of the biological processes characterizing hereditary insensitivity to pain, the biological processes were used for a similarity analysis with the functions of n = 4,834 database-queried drugs. Using emergent self-organizing maps, a cluster of n = 22 drugs was identified sharing important functional features with hereditary insensitivity to pain. Several members of this cluster had been implicated in pain in preclinical experiments. Thus, the present concept of machine-learned knowledge discovery for pain research provides biologically plausible results and seems to be suitable for drug discovery by identifying a narrow choice of repurposing candidates, demonstrating that contemporary machine-learned methods offer innovative approaches to knowledge discovery from available evidence. PMID:28848388

Do consumers substitute opium for hashish? An economic analysis of simultaneous cannabinoid and opiate consumption in a legal regime.

PubMed

Chandra, Siddharth; Chandra, Madhur

2015-11-01

To analyze interrelationships in the consumption of opiates and cannabinoids in a legal regime and, specifically, whether consumers of opiates and cannabinoids treat them as substitutes for each other. Econometric dynamic panel data models for opium consumption are estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM). A unique dataset containing information about opiate (opium) consumption from the Punjab province of British India for the years 1907-1918 is analyzed (n=252) as a function of its own price, the prices of two forms of cannabis (the leaf (bhang), and the resin (charas, or hashish)), and wage income. Cross-price elasticities are examined to reveal substitution or complementarity between opium and cannabis. Opium is a substitute for charas (or hashish), with a cross price elasticity (βˆ3) of 0.14 (p<0.05), but not for bhang (cannabis leaves; cross price elasticity=0.00, p>0.10). Opium consumption (βˆ1=0.47 to 0.49, p<0.01) shows properties of habit persistence consistent with addiction. The consumption of opium is slightly responsive (inelastic) to changes in its own price (βˆ2=-0.34 to -0.35, p<0.05 to 0.01) and consumer wages (βˆ1=0.15, p<0.05). Opium and hashish, a form of cannabis, are substitutes. In addition, opium consumption displays properties of habit persistence and slight price and wage income responsiveness (inelasticity) consistent with an addictive substance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automating Partial Period Bond Valuation with Excel's Day Counting Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vicknair, David; Spruell, James

2009-01-01

An Excel model for calculating the actual price of bonds under a 30 day/month, 360 day/year day counting assumption by nesting the DAYS360 function within the PV function is developed. When programmed into an Excel spreadsheet, the model can accommodate annual and semiannual payment bonds sold on or between interest dates using six fundamental…

Three Essays in Energy Economics and Industrial Organization, with Applications to Electricity and Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitropoulos, Dimitrios

Electricity industries are experiencing upward cost pressures in many parts of the world. Chapter 1 of this thesis studies the production technology of electricity distributors. Although production and cost functions are mathematical duals, practitioners typically estimate only one or the other. This chapter proposes an approach for joint estimation of production and costs. Combining such quantity and price data has the effect of adding statistical information without introducing additional parameters into the model. We define a GMM estimator that produces internally consistent parameter estimates for both the production function and the cost function. We consider a multi-output framework, and show how to account for the presence of certain types of simultaneity and measurement error. The methodology is applied to data on 73 Ontario distributors for the period 2002-2012. As expected, the joint model results in a substantial improvement in the precision of parameter estimates. Chapter 2 focuses on productivity trends in electricity distribution. We apply two methodologies for estimating productivity growth . an index based approach, and an econometric cost based approach . to our data on the 73 Ontario distributors for the period 2002 to 2012. The resulting productivity growth estimates are approximately 1% per year, suggesting a reversal of the positive estimates that have generally been reported in previous periods. We implement flexible semi-parametric variants to assess the robustness of these conclusions and discuss the use of such statistical analyses for calibrating productivity and relative efficiencies within a price-cap framework. In chapter 3, I turn to the historically important problem of vertical contractual relations. While the existing literature has established that resale price maintenance is sufficient to coordinate the distribution network of a manufacturer, this chapter asks whether such vertical restraints are necessary. Specifically, I study the vertical contracting problem between an upstream manufacturer and its downstream distributors in a setting where spot market contracts fail, but resale price maintenance cannot be appealed to due to legal prohibition. I show that a bonus scheme based on retail revenues is sufficient to provide incentives to decentralized retailers to elicit the correct levels of both price and service.

Three Essays in Energy Economics and Industrial Organization, with Applications to Electricity and Distribution Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimitropoulos, Dimitrios

Electricity industries are experiencing upward cost pressures in many parts of the world. Chapter 1 of this thesis studies the production technology of electricity distributors. Although production and cost functions are mathematical duals, practitioners typically estimate only one or the other. This chapter proposes an approach for joint estimation of production and costs. Combining such quantity and price data has the effect of adding statistical information without introducing additional parameters into the model. We define a GMM estimator that produces internally consistent parameter estimates for both the production function and the cost function. We consider a multi-output framework, and show how to account for the presence of certain types of simultaneity and measurement error. The methodology is applied to data on 73 Ontario distributors for the period 2002-2012. As expected, the joint model results in a substantial improvement in the precision of parameter estimates. Chapter 2 focuses on productivity trends in electricity distribution. We apply two methodologies for estimating productivity growth---an index based approach, and an econometric cost based approach---to our data on the 73 Ontario distributors for the period 2002 to 2012. The resulting productivity growth estimates are approximately -1% per year, suggesting a reversal of the positive estimates that have generally been reported in previous periods. We implement flexible semi-parametric variants to assess the robustness of these conclusions and discuss the use of such statistical analyses for calibrating productivity and relative efficiencies within a price-cap framework. In chapter 3, I turn to the historically important problem of vertical contractual relations. While the existing literature has established that resale price maintenance is sufficient to coordinate the distribution network of a manufacturer, this chapter asks whether such vertical restraints are necessary. Specifically, I study the vertical contracting problem between an upstream manufacturer and its downstream distributors in a setting where spot market contracts fail, but resale price maintenance cannot be appealed to due to legal prohibition. I show that a bonus scheme based on retail revenues is sufficient to provide incentives to decentralized retailers to elicit the correct levels of both price and service.

Process model-based atomic service discovery and composition of composite semantic web services using web ontology language for services (OWL-S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulraj, D.; Swamynathan, S.; Madhaiyan, M.

2012-11-01

Web Service composition has become indispensable as a single web service cannot satisfy complex functional requirements. Composition of services has received much interest to support business-to-business (B2B) or enterprise application integration. An important component of the service composition is the discovery of relevant services. In Semantic Web Services (SWS), service discovery is generally achieved by using service profile of Ontology Web Languages for Services (OWL-S). The profile of the service is a derived and concise description but not a functional part of the service. The information contained in the service profile is sufficient for atomic service discovery, but it is not sufficient for the discovery of composite semantic web services (CSWS). The purpose of this article is two-fold: first to prove that the process model is a better choice than the service profile for service discovery. Second, to facilitate the composition of inter-organisational CSWS by proposing a new composition method which uses process ontology. The proposed service composition approach uses an algorithm which performs a fine grained match at the level of atomic process rather than at the level of the entire service in a composite semantic web service. Many works carried out in this area have proposed solutions only for the composition of atomic services and this article proposes a solution for the composition of composite semantic web services.

Implied adjusted volatility functions: Empirical evidence from Australian index option market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harun, Hanani Farhah; Hafizah, Mimi

2015-02-01

This study aims to investigate the implied adjusted volatility functions using the different Leland option pricing models and to assess whether the use of the specified implied adjusted volatility function can lead to an improvement in option valuation accuracy. The implied adjusted volatility is investigated in the context of Standard and Poor/Australian Stock Exchange (S&P/ASX) 200 index options over the course of 2001-2010, which covers the global financial crisis in the mid-2007 until the end of 2008. Both in- and out-of-sample resulted in approximately similar pricing error along the different Leland models. Results indicate that symmetric and asymmetric models of both moneyness ratio and logarithmic transformation of moneyness provide the overall best result in both during and post-crisis periods. We find that in the different period of interval (pre-, during and post-crisis) is subject to a different implied adjusted volatility function which best explains the index options. Hence, it is tremendously important to identify the intervals beforehand in investigating the implied adjusted volatility function.

A Distribution-class Locational Marginal Price (DLMP) Index for Enhanced Distribution Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinbode, Oluwaseyi Wemimo

The smart grid initiative is the impetus behind changes that are expected to culminate into an enhanced distribution system with the communication and control infrastructure to support advanced distribution system applications and resources such as distributed generation, energy storage systems, and price responsive loads. This research proposes a distribution-class analog of the transmission LMP (DLMP) as an enabler of the advanced applications of the enhanced distribution system. The DLMP is envisioned as a control signal that can incentivize distribution system resources to behave optimally in a manner that benefits economic efficiency and system reliability and that can optimally couple the transmission and the distribution systems. The DLMP is calculated from a two-stage optimization problem; a transmission system OPF and a distribution system OPF. An iterative framework that ensures accurate representation of the distribution system's price sensitive resources for the transmission system problem and vice versa is developed and its convergence problem is discussed. As part of the DLMP calculation framework, a DCOPF formulation that endogenously captures the effect of real power losses is discussed. The formulation uses piecewise linear functions to approximate losses. This thesis explores, with theoretical proofs, the breakdown of the loss approximation technique when non-positive DLMPs/LMPs occur and discusses a mixed integer linear programming formulation that corrects the breakdown. The DLMP is numerically illustrated in traditional and enhanced distribution systems and its superiority to contemporary pricing mechanisms is demonstrated using price responsive loads. Results show that the impact of the inaccuracy of contemporary pricing schemes becomes significant as flexible resources increase. At high elasticity, aggregate load consumption deviated from the optimal consumption by up to about 45 percent when using a flat or time-of-use rate. Individual load consumption deviated by up to 25 percent when using a real-time price. The superiority of the DLMP is more pronounced when important distribution network conditions are not reflected by contemporary prices. The individual load consumption incentivized by the real-time price deviated by up to 90 percent from the optimal consumption in a congested distribution network. While the DLMP internalizes congestion management, the consumption incentivized by the real-time price caused overloads.

Smokeless tobacco product prices and taxation in Bangladesh: Findings from the ITC survey

PubMed Central

Nargis, N; Hussain, AKMG; Fong, GT

2015-01-01

Context Smokeless tobacco use is well-recognized as occupying a significant portion of overall tobacco consumption in Bangladesh. Yet very little is known about the effectiveness of tax and price policy in controlling the use of smokeless tobacco use in the country. Aims The aims of this paper are to examine the price distribution of various smoked and smokeless tobacco products and estimate the effects of changes in the prices of tobacco products on the consumption of smokeless tobacco. Settings and Design The data for this paper came from the Wave 3 ITC Bangladesh (ITC BD) Survey conducted between November 2011 and May 2012. It is a cohort survey of a nationally representative sample of adult tobacco users and non-users in Bangladesh selected using a stratified multistage cluster sampling design. Two measures of smokeless tobacco use are used in the analysis—prevalence of smokeless tobacco use indicating the decision to use smokeless tobacco products, and the frequency of using smokeless tobacco per day indicating intensity of smokeless tobacco use. Methods and Material The regression analysis involves estimation of the demand function for the most widely used smokeless tobacco product in Bangladesh, zarda. Statistical analysis used The descriptive analysis looks at the characteristics of the price distribution of cigarette, bidi, zarda, and gul using the univariate Epanechnikov kernel density estimation. Results It estimates the price elasticity of lower price brands of zarda (the most commonly used smokeless tobacco product in Bangladesh) at -0.64 and of higher-priced brands at -0.39, and the cross-price elasticity of zarda with respect to cigarettes at 0.35. Conclusions The tax increase on smokeless tobacco products needs to be greater than the tax increase on smoked tobacco products to bridge the wide price differential between the two types of products that currently encourages downward substitution and discourages quitting behaviour. Finally, a specific excise system replacing the existing ad valorem excise tax can substantially contribute to the revenue collection performance from smokeless tobacco products. PMID:25526246

Genomics and transcriptomics in drug discovery.

PubMed

Dopazo, Joaquin

2014-02-01

The popularization of genomic high-throughput technologies is causing a revolution in biomedical research and, particularly, is transforming the field of drug discovery. Systems biology offers a framework to understand the extensive human genetic heterogeneity revealed by genomic sequencing in the context of the network of functional, regulatory and physical protein-drug interactions. Thus, approaches to find biomarkers and therapeutic targets will have to take into account the complex system nature of the relationships of the proteins with the disease. Pharmaceutical companies will have to reorient their drug discovery strategies considering the human genetic heterogeneity. Consequently, modeling and computational data analysis will have an increasingly important role in drug discovery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Open Drug Discovery Toolkit (ODDT): a new open-source player in the drug discovery field.

PubMed

Wójcikowski, Maciej; Zielenkiewicz, Piotr; Siedlecki, Pawel

2015-01-01

There has been huge progress in the open cheminformatics field in both methods and software development. Unfortunately, there has been little effort to unite those methods and software into one package. We here describe the Open Drug Discovery Toolkit (ODDT), which aims to fulfill the need for comprehensive and open source drug discovery software. The Open Drug Discovery Toolkit was developed as a free and open source tool for both computer aided drug discovery (CADD) developers and researchers. ODDT reimplements many state-of-the-art methods, such as machine learning scoring functions (RF-Score and NNScore) and wraps other external software to ease the process of developing CADD pipelines. ODDT is an out-of-the-box solution designed to be easily customizable and extensible. Therefore, users are strongly encouraged to extend it and develop new methods. We here present three use cases for ODDT in common tasks in computer-aided drug discovery. Open Drug Discovery Toolkit is released on a permissive 3-clause BSD license for both academic and industrial use. ODDT's source code, additional examples and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/oddt/oddt).

75 FR 69715 - New Postal Product

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-15

... contract for future functional equivalence analyses of the GEPS 3 product. \\1\\ Notice of United States... GEPS contracts, a description of applicable GEPS contracts, formulas for prices, an analysis of the... information and volume commitments, do not alter the contracts' functional equivalency. Id. at 3-4. The Postal...

Early Probe and Drug Discovery in Academia: A Minireview.

PubMed

Roy, Anuradha

2018-02-09

Drug discovery encompasses processes ranging from target selection and validation to the selection of a development candidate. While comprehensive drug discovery work flows are implemented predominantly in the big pharma domain, early discovery focus in academia serves to identify probe molecules that can serve as tools to study targets or pathways. Despite differences in the ultimate goals of the private and academic sectors, the same basic principles define the best practices in early discovery research. A successful early discovery program is built on strong target definition and validation using a diverse set of biochemical and cell-based assays with functional relevance to the biological system being studied. The chemicals identified as hits undergo extensive scaffold optimization and are characterized for their target specificity and off-target effects in in vitro and in animal models. While the active compounds from screening campaigns pass through highly stringent chemical and Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, and Excretion (ADME) filters for lead identification, the probe discovery involves limited medicinal chemistry optimization. The goal of probe discovery is identification of a compound with sub-µM activity and reasonable selectivity in the context of the target being studied. The compounds identified from probe discovery can also serve as starting scaffolds for lead optimization studies.

Modeling & Informatics at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated: our philosophy for sustained impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGaughey, Georgia; Patrick Walters, W.

2017-03-01

Molecular modelers and informaticians have the unique opportunity to integrate cross-functional data using a myriad of tools, methods and visuals to generate information. Using their drug discovery expertise, information is transformed to knowledge that impacts drug discovery. These insights are often times formulated locally and then applied more broadly, which influence the discovery of new medicines. This is particularly true in an organization where the members are exposed to projects throughout an organization, such as in the case of the global Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex Pharmaceuticals. From its inception, Vertex has been a leader in the development and use of computational methods for drug discovery. In this paper, we describe the Modeling & Informatics group at Vertex and the underlying philosophy, which has driven this team to sustain impact on the discovery of first-in-class transformative medicines.

The ``Missing Compounds'' affair in functionality-driven material discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zunger, Alex

2014-03-01

In the paradigm of ``data-driven discovery,'' underlying one of the leading streams of the Material Genome Initiative (MGI), one attempts to compute high-throughput style as many of the properties of as many of the N (about 10**5- 10**6) compounds listed in databases of previously known compounds. One then inspects the ensuing Big Data, searching for useful trends. The alternative and complimentary paradigm of ``functionality-directed search and optimization'' used here, searches instead for the n much smaller than N configurations and compositions that have the desired value of the target functionality. Examples include the use of genetic and other search methods that optimize the structure or identity of atoms on lattice sites, using atomistic electronic structure (such as first-principles) approaches in search of a given electronic property. This addresses a few of the bottlenecks that have faced the alternative, data-driven/high throughput/Big Data philosophy: (i) When the configuration space is theoretically of infinite size, building a complete data base as in data-driven discovery is impossible, yet searching for the optimum functionality, is still a well-posed problem. (ii) The configuration space that we explore might include artificially grown, kinetically stabilized systems (such as 2D layer stacks; superlattices; colloidal nanostructures; Fullerenes) that are not listed in compound databases (used by data-driven approaches), (iii) a large fraction of chemically plausible compounds have not been experimentally synthesized, so in the data-driven approach these are often skipped. In our approach we search explicitly for such ``Missing Compounds''. It is likely that many interesting material properties will be found in cases (i)-(iii) that elude high throughput searches based on databases encapsulating existing knowledge. I will illustrate (a) Functionality-driven discovery of topological insulators and valley-split quantum-computer semiconductors, as well as (b) Use of ``first principles thermodynamics'' to discern which of the previously ``missing compounds'' should, in fact exist and in which structure. Synthesis efforts by Poeppelmeier group at NU realized 20 never-before-made half-Heusler compounds out of the 20 predicted ones, in our predicted space groups. This type of theory-led experimental search of designed materials with target functionalities may shorten the current process of discovery of interesting functional materials. Supported by DOE ,Office of Science, Energy Frontier Research Center for Inverse Design

Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Advertisement Dependent Stochastic Demand

PubMed Central

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers. PMID:24453832

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stickles, R. P.; Oneill, J. K.; Smith, E. H.

1978-01-01

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

The effects of higher cigarette prices on tar and nicotine consumption in a cohort of adult smokers.

PubMed

Farrelly, M C; Nimsch, C T; Hyland, A; Cummings, M

2004-01-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the demand for tar and nicotine in cigarettes as a function of cigarette prices in a cohort of cigarette 11,966 smokers followed for 5 years. Data for the analysis come from a longitudinal telephone survey of 11,966 smokers who were interviewed in 1988 and 1993 as part of the Community Intervention Trial for Smoking Cessation (COMMIT). Separate models are estimated for three age groups to account for differences in levels of addiction and brand loyalty across age. We found that smokers respond to higher cigarette prices by reducing the number of cigarettes smoked per day but also by switching to cigarettes that are higher in tar and nicotine per cigarette. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coordinating a supply chain with price and advertisement dependent stochastic demand.

PubMed

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers.

Overcoming HERG affinity in the discovery of the CCR5 antagonist maraviroc.

PubMed

Price, David A; Armour, Duncan; de Groot, Marcel; Leishman, Derek; Napier, Carolyn; Perros, Manos; Stammen, Blanda L; Wood, Anthony

2006-09-01

The discovery of maraviroc 17 is described with particular reference to the generation of high selectivity over affinity for the HERG potassium channel. This was achieved through the use of a high throughput binding assay for the HERG channel that is known to show an excellent correlation with functional effects.

Some Applications of Fourier's Great Discovery for Beginners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraftmakher, Yaakov

2012-01-01

Nearly two centuries ago, Fourier discovered that any periodic function of period T can be presented as a sum of sine waveforms of frequencies equal to an integer times the fundamental frequency [omega] = 2[pi]/T (Fourier's series). It is impossible to overestimate the importance of Fourier's discovery, and all physics or engineering students…

Discovery and bio-optimization of human antibody therapeutics using the XenoMouse® transgenic mouse platform.

PubMed

Foltz, Ian N; Gunasekaran, Kannan; King, Chadwick T

2016-03-01

Since the late 1990s, the use of transgenic animal platforms has transformed the discovery of fully human therapeutic monoclonal antibodies. The first approved therapy derived from a transgenic platform--the epidermal growth factor receptor antagonist panitumumab to treat advanced colorectal cancer--was developed using XenoMouse(®) technology. Since its approval in 2006, the science of discovering and developing therapeutic monoclonal antibodies derived from the XenoMouse(®) platform has advanced considerably. The emerging array of antibody therapeutics developed using transgenic technologies is expected to include antibodies and antibody fragments with novel mechanisms of action and extreme potencies. In addition to these impressive functional properties, these antibodies will be designed to have superior biophysical properties that enable highly efficient large-scale manufacturing methods. Achieving these new heights in antibody drug discovery will ultimately bring better medicines to patients. Here, we review best practices for the discovery and bio-optimization of monoclonal antibodies that fit functional design goals and meet high manufacturing standards. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

KM3NeT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jong, M. de; Leiden Institute of Physics, Leiden University, Leiden; Collaboration: KM3NeT Collaboration

2015-07-15

KM3NeT is a large research infrastructure, that will consist of a network of deep-sea neutrino telescopes in the Mediterranean Sea. The main objective of KM3NeT is the discovery and subsequent observation of high-energy neutrino sources in the Universe. A further physics perspective is the measurement of the mass hierarchy of neutrinos. A corresponding study, ORCA, is ongoing within KM3NeT. A cost effective technology for (very) large water Cherenkov detectors has been developed based on a new generation of low price 3-inch photo-multiplier tubes. Following the successful deployment and operation of two prototypes, the construction of the KM3NeT research infrastructure hasmore » started. The prospects of the different phases of the implementation of KM3NeT are summarised.« less

KM3NeT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, M.

2015-07-01

KM3NeT is a large research infrastructure, that will consist of a network of deep-sea neutrino telescopes in the Mediterranean Sea. The main objective of KM3NeT is the discovery and subsequent observation of high-energy neutrino sources in the Universe. A further physics perspective is the measurement of the mass hierarchy of neutrinos. A corresponding study, ORCA, is ongoing within KM3NeT. A cost effective technology for (very) large water Cherenkov detectors has been developed based on a new generation of low price 3-inch photo-multiplier tubes. Following the successful deployment and operation of two prototypes, the construction of the KM3NeT research infrastructure has started. The prospects of the different phases of the implementation of KM3NeT are summarised.

Ebolaviruses: New roles for old proteins.

PubMed

Cantoni, Diego; Rossman, Jeremy S

2018-05-01

In 2014, the world witnessed the largest Ebolavirus outbreak in recorded history. The subsequent humanitarian effort spurred extensive research, significantly enhancing our understanding of ebolavirus replication and pathogenicity. The main functions of each ebolavirus protein have been studied extensively since the discovery of the virus in 1976; however, the recent expansion of ebolavirus research has led to the discovery of new protein functions. These newly discovered roles are revealing new mechanisms of virus replication and pathogenicity, whilst enhancing our understanding of the broad functions of each ebolavirus viral protein (VP). Many of these new functions appear to be unrelated to the protein's primary function during virus replication. Such new functions range from bystander T-lymphocyte death caused by VP40-secreted exosomes to new roles for VP24 in viral particle formation. This review highlights the newly discovered roles of ebolavirus proteins in order to provide a more encompassing view of ebolavirus replication and pathogenicity.

Ebolaviruses: New roles for old proteins

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

In 2014, the world witnessed the largest Ebolavirus outbreak in recorded history. The subsequent humanitarian effort spurred extensive research, significantly enhancing our understanding of ebolavirus replication and pathogenicity. The main functions of each ebolavirus protein have been studied extensively since the discovery of the virus in 1976; however, the recent expansion of ebolavirus research has led to the discovery of new protein functions. These newly discovered roles are revealing new mechanisms of virus replication and pathogenicity, whilst enhancing our understanding of the broad functions of each ebolavirus viral protein (VP). Many of these new functions appear to be unrelated to the protein’s primary function during virus replication. Such new functions range from bystander T-lymphocyte death caused by VP40-secreted exosomes to new roles for VP24 in viral particle formation. This review highlights the newly discovered roles of ebolavirus proteins in order to provide a more encompassing view of ebolavirus replication and pathogenicity. PMID:29723187

Bion's discovery of alpha function: thinking under fire on the battlefield and in the consulting room.

PubMed

Brown, Lawrence J

2012-10-01

This paper has traced Bion's discovery of alpha function and its subsequent elaboration. His traumatic experiences as a young tank commander in World War I (overlaid on, and intertwined with, childhood conflicts) gave him firsthand exposure to very painful emotions that tested his capacity to manage. Later, in the 1950s, after his analysis with Melanie Klein and marriage to Francesca Bion, he undertook the analysis of psychotic patients and learned how they disassembled their ability to know reality as a defense against unbearable emotional truths in their lives. This led Bion to identify an aspect of dreaming that was necessary in order for reality experience to be given personal meaning so that one may learn from experience. Simultaneous with working out this new theory of dreaming, Bion also revisited his World War I experiences that had remained undigested and all these elements coalesced into a selected fact - his discovery of alpha function. In subsequent writings, Bion explored the constituent factors of alpha function, including the container/contained relationship, the PS↔D balance, reverie, tolerated doubt and other factors which I have termed the 'Constellation for Thinking'. Copyright © 2012 Institute of Psychoanalysis.

How the serotonin story is being rewritten by new gene-based discoveries principally related to SLC6A4, the serotonin transporter gene, which functions to influence all cellular serotonin systems.

PubMed

Murphy, Dennis L; Fox, Meredith A; Timpano, Kiara R; Moya, Pablo R; Ren-Patterson, Renee; Andrews, Anne M; Holmes, Andrew; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Wendland, Jens R

2008-11-01

Discovered and crystallized over sixty years ago, serotonin's important functions in the brain and body were identified over the ensuing years by neurochemical, physiological and pharmacological investigations. This 2008 M. Rapport Memorial Serotonin Review focuses on some of the most recent discoveries involving serotonin that are based on genetic methodologies. These include examples of the consequences that result from direct serotonergic gene manipulation (gene deletion or overexpression) in mice and other species; an evaluation of some phenotypes related to functional human serotonergic gene variants, particularly in SLC6A4, the serotonin transporter gene; and finally, a consideration of the pharmacogenomics of serotonergic drugs with respect to both their therapeutic actions and side effects. The serotonin transporter (SERT) has been the most comprehensively studied of the serotonin system molecular components, and will be the primary focus of this review. We provide in-depth examples of gene-based discoveries primarily related to SLC6A4 that have clarified serotonin's many important homeostatic functions in humans, non-human primates, mice and other species.

Reconsidering the Theological and Ethical Implications of Extraterrestrial Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randolph, Richard O. (Editor); Race, Margaret S.; McKay, Christopher P. (Editor)

1997-01-01

As we stand on the threshold of a new millennium, we also find ourselves at the brink of a new and exciting era in space exploration. In fact, this new era has already begun, with the successful landing and exploration of Mars by the Pathfinder mission in July 1997. Pathfinder represents an important scientific accomplishment for NASA because it demonstrated the agency's ability to successfully explore space at a relatively modest price. At the same time, Pathfinder revealed once again the genuine interest and fascination that people all over planet Earth have for space exploration. The Pathfinder mission is just one of several recent events-both scientific and cultural-that reveal this deep and almost unquenchable curiosity about space-and the possibility that there is life "out there." In August 1996, the public was captivated with NASA's announcement that a meteorite from Mars may contain evidence of early microscopic life. Shortly after the NASA announcement, media coverage of the discovery-and public discourse concerning the discovery-turned to an examination of the theological implications of evidence for extraterrestrial, albeit unintelligent, life. To a lesser extent, public reaction to the Hale-Bopp comet in the Spring of 1996 is also suggestive of many persons' deep passion to know more about space.

A Study of Energy Management Systems and its Failure Modes in Smart Grid Power Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musani, Aatif

The subject of this thesis is distribution level load management using a pricing signal in a smart grid infrastructure. The project relates to energy management in a spe-cialized distribution system known as the Future Renewable Electric Energy Delivery and Management (FREEDM) system. Energy management through demand response is one of the key applications of smart grid. Demand response today is envisioned as a method in which the price could be communicated to the consumers and they may shift their loads from high price periods to the low price periods. The development and deployment of the FREEDM system necessitates controls of energy and power at the point of end use. In this thesis, the main objective is to develop the control model of the Energy Management System (EMS). The energy and power management in the FREEDM system is digitally controlled therefore all signals containing system states are discrete. The EMS is modeled as a discrete closed loop transfer function in the z-domain. A breakdown of power and energy control devices such as EMS components may result in energy con-sumption error. This leads to one of the main focuses of the thesis which is to identify and study component failures of the designed control system. Moreover, H-infinity ro-bust control method is applied to ensure effectiveness of the control architecture. A focus of the study is cyber security attack, specifically bad data detection in price. Test cases are used to illustrate the performance of the EMS control design, the effect of failure modes and the application of robust control technique. The EMS was represented by a linear z-domain model. The transfer function be-tween the pricing signal and the demand response was designed and used as a test bed. EMS potential failure modes were identified and studied. Three bad data detection meth-odologies were implemented and a voting policy was used to declare bad data. The run-ning mean and standard deviation analysis method proves to be the best method to detect bad data. An H-infinity robust control technique was applied for the first time to design discrete EMS controller for the FREEDM system.

Nuclear power-related facilities and neighboring land price: a case study on the Mutsu-Ogawara region, Japan.

PubMed

Yamane, Fumihiro; Ohgaki, Hideaki; Asano, Kota

2011-12-01

From the perspective of risk, nuclear-power-related facilities (NPRFs) are often regarded as locally undesirable land use. However, construction of NPRFs contributes to social infrastructural improvement and job creation in the host communities. This raises a question: How large are these positive and negative effects? To approach this question from an economic viewpoint, we estimated the hedonic land price function for the Mutsu-Ogawara region of Japan from 1976 to 2004 and analyzed year-by-year fluctuations in land prices around the NPRFs located there. Land prices increased gradually in the neighborhood of the nuclear fuel cycle facilities (NFCFs) in Rokkasho Village, except for some falling (i) from 1982 to 1983 (the first official announcement of the project of construction came in 1983), (ii) from 1987 to 1988 (in 1988, the construction began and opposition movements against the project reached their peak), and (iii) from 1998 to 1999 (the pilot carry-in of spent fuels into the reprocessing plant began in 1998). Land prices around the Higashidori Nuclear Power Plant decreased during the period 1981-1982, when the Tohoku Electric Power Corp. and Tokyo Electric Power Corp. announced their joint construction plan. On the other hand, we obtained some results, even though not significant, indicating that land prices around Ohminato and Sekinehama harbors changed with the arrival and departure of the nuclear ship Mutsu, which suffered a radiation leak in 1974. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pros and cons of power combined cycle in Venezuela

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alvarez, C.; Hernandez, S.

1997-09-01

In Venezuela combined cycle power has not been economically attractive to electric utility companies, mainly due to the very low price of natural gas. Savings in cost of natural gas due to a higher efficiency, characteristic of this type of cycle, does not compensate additional investments required to close the simple cycle (heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) and steam turbine island). Low gas prices have contributed to create a situation characterized by investors` reluctance to commit capital in gas pipe lines and associated equipment. The Government is taking measures to improve economics. Recently (January 1, 1997), the Ministry of Energymore » and Mines raised the price of natural gas, and established a formula to tie its price to the exchange rate variation (dollar/bolivar) in an intent to stimulate investments in this sector. This is considered a good beginning after a price freeze for about three years. Another measure that has been announced is the implementation of a corporate policy of outsourcing to build new gas facilities such as pipe lines and measuring and regulation stations. Under these new circumstances, it seems that combined cycle will play an important role in the power sector. In fact, some power generation projects are considering building new plants using this technology. An economical comparative study is presented between simple and combined cycles power plant. Screening curves are showed with a gas price forecast based on the government decree recently issued, as a function of plant capacity factor.« less

Product-line selection and pricing with remanufacturing under availability constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aras, Necati; Esenduran, G.÷k.‡e.; Altinel, I. Kuban

2004-12-01

Product line selection and pricing are two crucial decisions for the profitability of a manufacturing firm. Remanufacturing, on the other hand, may be a profitable strategy that captures the remaining value in used products. In this paper we develop a mixed-integer nonlinear programming model form the perspective of an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). The objective of the OEM is to select products to manufacture and remanufacture among a set of given alternatives and simultaneously determine their prices so as to maximize its profit. It is assumed that the probability a customer selects a product is proportional to its utility and inversely proportional to its price. The utility of a product is an increasing function of its perceived quality. In our base model, products are discriminated by their unit production costs and utilities. We also analyze a case where remanufacturing is limited by the available quantity of collected remanufacturable products. We show that the resulting problem is decomposed into the pricing and product line selection subproblems. Pricing problem is solved by a variant of the simplex search procedure which can also handle constraints, while complete enumeration and a genetic algorithm are used for the solution of the product line selection problem. A number of experiments are carried out to identify conditions under which it is economically viable for the firm to sell remanufactured products. We also determine the optimal utility and unit production cost values of a remanufactured product, which maximizes the total profit of the OEM.

Modeling of shallot supply decisions: the case of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabawati, N. F.; Pujawan, I. N.; Widodo, E.

2018-04-01

To optimize supply chain role, the players of supply chain need to integrate its function. One of the general problems in supply chain was the unbalanced quantity of sales and quantity of supply. This paper focused on modelling a simple method to manage the gap between the demand and the supply. The gap might cause an overstock or a loss. This paper propose a buffer quantity in order to handle the gap by using import decision. The case study was about shallot supply - demand in Indonesia. In this study we model the supply decisions of shallot in Indonesia. While the demand was quite stable over time, the supply was heavily affected by the yield from the farms. The shortage could result in the government importing shallot from other countries. Hence, the government also needed to have a proper buffering mechanism in order to ensure the supply was sufficient and the price was quite stable. The initial model of this research was built by stochastic parameters and the extended model to gain pricing mechanism was built by Shapley value principal with modification. The primary variables were supply quantity, demand quantity, buffer and purchased quantity (stock needed), actual consumption, and price for three players. The validation proved that the result of price at each player presented a significant difference. Therefore, the model could be applied to decide the stock quantity needed and to keep the price stable at each player especially at the end player which would influence the market price.

Toward a Hedonic Value Framework in Health Care.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Sullivan, Sean D

2017-02-01

In well-functioning markets, a hedonic pricing scheme can reflect the marginal valuation of various attributes of a differentiated product at market equilibrium. It serves as an important tool to inform pricing of a new product with a specific combination of attributes. Because health cannot be bought and sold in a market setting, and health care markets are distorted by insurance or government subsidies, direct valuation of a health intervention as a differentiated good through observed market prices is difficult. In this article, we discuss the rationale of using stated preference methods for developing a hedonic value framework for health insurance products to inform the decision on whether a product should be covered or subsidized by insurance, given its price. This value index will not reflect marginal value at market equilibrium, as in a hedonic pricing scheme, but would capture the distribution of marginal value in the population. We discuss how affordability concerns can be integrated into the development of a hedonic valuation model. We compare this framework with traditional cost-effectiveness analysis and also the existing value frameworks put forth by various organizations. The framework can be adopted to inform other decisions such as pricing. We argue that developing such a comprehensive and decision-theoretic value framework is feasible and, if successful, can serve to inform health care resource allocation in this country for decades to come in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patients' Preferences for Generic and Branded Over-the-Counter Medicines: An Adaptive Conjoint Analysis Approach.

PubMed

Halme, Merja; Linden, Kari; Kääriä, Kimmo

2009-12-01

: Despite increased use of generic medicines, little is known about either the attitudes of patients towards them or the decision-making process surrounding them. Young adults use over-the-counter (OTC) analgesics relatively often. : To assess the preferences of patients for generic and branded OTC pain medicines, to identify clusters with different preference structures, and to estimate the price elasticity of a generic alternative among university students. : Finnish university students (n = 256; students in courses at the Helsinki School of Economics) responded to an adaptive conjoint analysis (ACA) questionnaire on the choice between branded and generic OTC ibuprofen products. Product attributes of price, brand, onset time of effect, place of purchase and source of information were included in the questionnaire on the basis of the literature, a focus group and a previous pilot study. Several socioeconomic and health behavior descriptors were employed. Individual-level utility functions were estimated, preference clusters were identified, and the price elasticity of the generic medicine was assessed. : Five clusters with characteristic individual-level preferences and price elasticity but few differences in socioeconomic background were detected. Approximately half of the respondents were strongly price sensitive while the others had other preferences such as brand or an opportunity to buy the medicine at a pharmacy or to have a physician or a pharmacist as an information source. : The study provided new information on the concomitant effects of brand, price and other essential product attributes on the choice by patients between branded and generic medicines.

Oil prices, fiscal policy, and economic growth in oil-exporting countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Anshasy, Amany A.

This dissertation argues that in oil-exporting countries fiscal policy could play an important role in transmitting the oil shocks to the economy and that the indirect effects of the changes in oil prices via the fiscal channel could be quite significant. The study comprises three distinct, yet related, essays. In the first essay, I try to study the fiscal policy response to the changes in oil prices and to their growing volatility. In a dynamic general equilibrium framework, a fiscal policy reaction function is derived and is empirically tested for a panel of 15 oil-exporters covering the period 1970--2000. After the link between oil price shocks and fiscal policy is established, the second essay tries to investigate the impact of the highly volatile oil prices on economic growth for the same sample, controlling for the fiscal channel. In both essays the study employs recent dynamic panel-data estimation techniques: System GMM. This approach has the potential advantages of minimizing the bias resulting from estimating dynamic panel models, exploiting the time series properties of the data, controlling for the unobserved country-specific effects, and correcting for any simultaneity bias. In the third essay, I focus on the case of Venezuela for the period 1950--2001. The recent developments in the cointegrating vector autoregression, CVAR technique is applied to provide a suitable framework for analyzing the short-run dynamics and the long-run relationships among oil prices, government revenues, government consumption, investment, and output.

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

PubMed

Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

2005-02-08

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

Adjusting Health Expenditures for Inflation: A Review of Measures for Health Services Research in the United States.

PubMed

Dunn, Abe; Grosse, Scott D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

2018-02-01

To provide guidance on selecting the most appropriate price index for adjusting health expenditures or costs for inflation. Major price index series produced by federal statistical agencies. We compare the key characteristics of each index and develop suggestions on specific indexes to use in many common situations and general guidance in others. Price series and methodological documentation were downloaded from federal websites and supplemented with literature scans. The gross domestic product implicit price deflator or the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is preferable to the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) to adjust for general inflation, in most cases. The Personal Health Care (PHC) index or the PCE health-by-function index is generally preferred to adjust total medical expenditures for inflation. The CPI medical care index is preferred for the adjustment of consumer out-of-pocket expenditures for inflation. A new, experimental disease-specific Medical Care Expenditure Index is now available to adjust payments for disease treatment episodes. There is no single gold standard for adjusting health expenditures for inflation. Our discussion of best practices can help researchers select the index best suited to their study. © Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Estimating the environmental and resource costs of leakage in water distribution systems: A shadow price approach.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Mocholí-Arce, Manuel; Sala-Garrido, Ramon

2016-10-15

Water scarcity is one of the main problems faced by many regions in the XXIst century. In this context, the need to reduce leakages from water distribution systems has gained almost universal acceptance. The concept of sustainable economic level of leakage (SELL) has been proposed to internalize the environmental and resource costs within economic level of leakage calculations. However, because these costs are not set by the market, they have not often been calculated. In this paper, the directional-distance function was used to estimate the shadow price of leakages as a proxy of their environmental and resource costs. This is a pioneering approach to the economic valuation of leakage externalities. An empirical application was carried out for the main Chilean water companies. The estimated results indicated that for 2014, the average shadow price of leakages was approximately 32% of the price of the water delivered. Moreover, as a sensitivity analysis, the shadow prices of the leakages were calculated from the perspective of the water companies' managers and the regulator. The methodology and findings of this study are essential for supporting the decision process of reducing leakage, contributing to the improvement of economic, social and environmental efficiency and sustainability of urban water supplies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhanced representations of lithium-ion batteries in power systems models and their effect on the valuation of energy arbitrage applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakti, Apurba; Gallagher, Kevin G.; Sepulveda, Nestor; Uckun, Canan; Vergara, Claudio; de Sisternes, Fernando J.; Dees, Dennis W.; Botterud, Audun

2017-02-01

We develop three novel enhanced mixed integer-linear representations of the power limit of the battery and its efficiency as a function of the charge and discharge power and the state of charge of the battery, which can be directly implemented in large-scale power systems models and solved with commercial optimization solvers. Using these battery representations, we conduct a techno-economic analysis of the performance of a 10 MWh lithium-ion battery system testing the effect of a 5-min vs. a 60-min price signal on profits using real time prices from a selected node in the MISO electricity market. Results show that models of lithium-ion batteries where the power limits and efficiency are held constant overestimate profits by 10% compared to those obtained from an enhanced representation that more closely matches the real behavior of the battery. When the battery system is exposed to a 5-min price signal, the energy arbitrage profitability improves by 60% compared to that from hourly price exposure. These results indicate that a more accurate representation of li-ion batteries as well as the market rules that govern the frequency of electricity prices can play a major role on the estimation of the value of battery technologies for power grid applications.

The effect of cigarette price increase on the cigarette consumption in Taiwan: evidence from the National Health Interview Surveys on cigarette consumption

PubMed Central

Lee, Jie-Min; Hwang, Tsorng-Chyi; Ye, Chun-Yuan; Chen, Sheng-Hong

2004-01-01

Background This study uses cigarette price elasticity to evaluate the effect of a new excise tax increase on cigarette consumption and to investigate responses from various types of smokers. Methods Our sample consisted of current smokers between 17 and 69 years old interviewed during an annual face-to-face survey conducted by Taiwan National Health Research Institutes between 2000 to 2003. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) procedure to estimate double logarithmic function of cigarette demand and cigarette price elasticity. Results In 2002, after Taiwan had enacted the new tax scheme, cigarette price elasticity in Taiwan was found to be -0.5274. The new tax scheme brought about an average annual 13.27 packs/person (10.5%) reduction in cigarette consumption. Using the cigarette price elasticity estimate from -0.309 in 2003, we calculated that if the Health and Welfare Tax were increased by another NT$ 3 per pack and cigarette producers shifted this increase to the consumers, cigarette consumption would be reduced by 2.47 packs/person (2.2%). The value of the estimated cigarette price elasticity is smaller than one, meaning that the tax will not only reduce cigarette consumption but it will also generate additional tax revenues. Male smokers who had no income or who smoked light cigarettes were found to be more responsive to changes in cigarette price. Conclusions An additional tax added to the cost of cigarettes would bring about a reduction in cigarette consumption and increased tax revenues. It would also help reduce incidents smoking-related illnesses. The additional tax revenues generated by the tax increase could be used to offset the current financial deficiency of Taiwan's National Health Insurance program and provide better public services. PMID:15598345

Estimating the cost of improving service quality in water supply: A shadow price approach for England and wales.

PubMed

Molinos-Senante, María; Maziotis, Alexandros; Sala-Garrido, Ramón

2016-01-01

Service quality to customers is an aspect that cannot be ignored in the performance assessment of water companies. Nowadays water regulators introduce awards or penalties to incentivize companies to improve service quality to customers when setting prices. In this study, the directional distance function is employed to estimate the shadow prices of variables indicating the lack of service quality to customers in the water industry i.e., written complaints, unplanned interruptions and properties below the reference level. To calculate the shadow price of each undesirable output for each water company, it is needed to ascribe a reference price for the desirable output which is the volume of water delivered. An empirical application is carried out for water companies in England and Wales. Hence, the shadow price of each undesirable output is expressed both as a percentage of the price of the desirable output and in pence per cubic meter of water delivered The estimated results indicate that on average, each additional written complaint that needs to be dealt with by the water company includes a service quality cost of 0.399p/m(3). As expected, when looking at the other service quality variables which involve network repair or replacement, these values are considerably higher. On average, the water company must spend an extra 0.622p/m(3) to prevent one unplanned interruption and 0.702p/m(3) to avoid one water pressure below the reference level. The findings of this study are of great importance for regulated companies and regulators as it has been illustrated that improvements in the service quality in terms of customer service could be challenging and therefore ongoing investments will be required to address these issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of cigarette price increase on the cigarette consumption in Taiwan: evidence from the National Health Interview Surveys on cigarette consumption.

PubMed

Lee, Jie-Min; Hwang, Tsorng-Chyi; Ye, Chun-Yuan; Chen, Sheng-Hong

2004-12-14

This study uses cigarette price elasticity to evaluate the effect of a new excise tax increase on cigarette consumption and to investigate responses from various types of smokers. Our sample consisted of current smokers between 17 and 69 years old interviewed during an annual face-to-face survey conducted by Taiwan National Health Research Institutes between 2000 to 2003. We used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) procedure to estimate double logarithmic function of cigarette demand and cigarette price elasticity. In 2002, after Taiwan had enacted the new tax scheme, cigarette price elasticity in Taiwan was found to be -0.5274. The new tax scheme brought about an average annual 13.27 packs/person (10.5%) reduction in cigarette consumption. Using the cigarette price elasticity estimate from -0.309 in 2003, we calculated that if the Health and Welfare Tax were increased by another NT 3 dollars per pack and cigarette producers shifted this increase to the consumers, cigarette consumption would be reduced by 2.47 packs/person (2.2%). The value of the estimated cigarette price elasticity is smaller than one, meaning that the tax will not only reduce cigarette consumption but it will also generate additional tax revenues. Male smokers who had no income or who smoked light cigarettes were found to be more responsive to changes in cigarette price. An additional tax added to the cost of cigarettes would bring about a reduction in cigarette consumption and increased tax revenues. It would also help reduce incidents smoking-related illnesses. The additional tax revenues generated by the tax increase could be used to offset the current financial deficiency of Taiwan's National Health Insurance program and provide better public services.

The global economic long-term potential of modern biomass in a climate-constrained world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, David; Humpenöder, Florian; Bauer, Nico; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Popp, Alexander; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2014-07-01

Low-stabilization scenarios consistent with the 2 °C target project large-scale deployment of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass. In case a GHG price regime integrates emissions from energy conversion and from land-use/land-use change, the strong demand for bioenergy and the pricing of terrestrial emissions are likely to coincide. We explore the global potential of purpose-grown lignocellulosic biomass and ask the question how the supply prices of biomass depend on prices for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the land-use sector. Using the spatially explicit global land-use optimization model MAgPIE, we construct bioenergy supply curves for ten world regions and a global aggregate in two scenarios, with and without a GHG tax. We find that the implementation of GHG taxes is crucial for the slope of the supply function and the GHG emissions from the land-use sector. Global supply prices start at 5 GJ-1 and increase almost linearly, doubling at 150 EJ (in 2055 and 2095). The GHG tax increases bioenergy prices by 5 GJ-1 in 2055 and by 10 GJ-1 in 2095, since it effectively stops deforestation and thus excludes large amounts of high-productivity land. Prices additionally increase due to costs for N2O emissions from fertilizer use. The GHG tax decreases global land-use change emissions by one-third. However, the carbon emissions due to bioenergy production increase by more than 50% from conversion of land that is not under emission control. Average yields required to produce 240 EJ in 2095 are roughly 600 GJ ha-1 yr-1 with and without tax.

Discovery of the porcine NGN3 gene and testing its endocrine function in the pig

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Neurogenin 3 (NGN3) is a member of the basic helix-loop-helix transcription factor family. NGN3 is both necessary and sufficient to drive endocrine differentiation in the developing pancreas in mouse and humans. Until now, the sequence for NGN3 eluded discovery despite completion of the pig genome a...

Limit order book and its modeling in terms of Gibbs Grand-Canonical Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bicci, Alberto

2016-12-01

In the domain of so called Econophysics some attempts have been already made for applying the theory of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics to economics and financial markets. In this paper a similar approach is made from a different perspective, trying to model the limit order book and price formation process of a given stock by the Grand-Canonical Gibbs Ensemble for the bid and ask orders. The application of the Bose-Einstein statistics to this ensemble allows then to derive the distribution of the sell and buy orders as a function of price. As a consequence we can define in a meaningful way expressions for the temperatures of the ensembles of bid orders and of ask orders, which are a function of minimum bid, maximum ask and closure prices of the stock as well as of the exchanged volume of shares. It is demonstrated that the difference between the ask and bid orders temperatures can be related to the VAO (Volume Accumulation Oscillator), an indicator empirically defined in Technical Analysis of stock markets. Furthermore the derived distributions for aggregate bid and ask orders can be subject to well defined validations against real data, giving a falsifiable character to the model.

The adaptive nature of liquidity taking in limit order books

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taranto, D. E.; Bormetti, G.; Lillo, F.

2014-06-01

In financial markets, the order flow, defined as the process assuming value one for buy market orders and minus one for sell market orders, displays a very slowly decaying autocorrelation function. Since orders impact prices, reconciling the persistence of the order flow with market efficiency is a subtle issue. A possible solution is provided by asymmetric liquidity, which states that the impact of a buy or sell order is inversely related to the probability of its occurrence. We empirically find that when the order flow predictability increases in one direction, the liquidity in the opposite side decreases, but the probability that a trade moves the price decreases significantly. While the last mechanism is able to counterbalance the persistence of order flow and restore efficiency and diffusivity, the first acts in the opposite direction. We introduce a statistical order book model where the persistence of the order flow is mitigated by adjusting the market order volume to the predictability of the order flow. The model reproduces the diffusive behaviour of prices at all time scales without fine-tuning the values of parameters, as well as the behaviour of most order book quantities as a function of the local predictability of the order flow.

The re-emergence of natural products for drug discovery in the genomics era.

PubMed

Harvey, Alan L; Edrada-Ebel, RuAngelie; Quinn, Ronald J

2015-02-01

Natural products have been a rich source of compounds for drug discovery. However, their use has diminished in the past two decades, in part because of technical barriers to screening natural products in high-throughput assays against molecular targets. Here, we review strategies for natural product screening that harness the recent technical advances that have reduced these barriers. We also assess the use of genomic and metabolomic approaches to augment traditional methods of studying natural products, and highlight recent examples of natural products in antimicrobial drug discovery and as inhibitors of protein-protein interactions. The growing appreciation of functional assays and phenotypic screens may further contribute to a revival of interest in natural products for drug discovery.

Correlations and clustering in wholesale electricity markets

DOE PAGES

Cui, Tianyu; Caravelli, Francesco; Ududec, Cozmin

2017-11-24

We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and introduce a type of correlation function based on event synchronization for spiky time series, and another based on string correlations of location names provided by the markets. As a result, this allows us to reconstruct aspects of the locational structure of the grid.

Correlations and clustering in wholesale electricity markets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cui, Tianyu; Caravelli, Francesco; Ududec, Cozmin

We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and introduce a type of correlation function based on event synchronization for spiky time series, and another based on string correlations of location names provided by the markets. As a result, this allows us to reconstruct aspects of the locational structure of the grid.

Correlations and clustering in wholesale electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Tianyu; Caravelli, Francesco; Ududec, Cozmin

2018-02-01

We study the structure of locational marginal prices in day-ahead and real-time wholesale electricity markets. In particular, we consider the case of two North American markets and show that the price correlations contain information on the locational structure of the grid. We study various clustering methods and introduce a type of correlation function based on event synchronization for spiky time series, and another based on string correlations of location names provided by the markets. This allows us to reconstruct aspects of the locational structure of the grid.

Cubature on Wiener Space: Pathwise Convergence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayer, Christian, E-mail: christian.bayer@wias-berlin.de; Friz, Peter K., E-mail: friz@math.tu-berlin.de

2013-04-15

Cubature on Wiener space (Lyons and Victoir in Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 460(2041):169-198, 2004) provides a powerful alternative to Monte Carlo simulation for the integration of certain functionals on Wiener space. More specifically, and in the language of mathematical finance, cubature allows for fast computation of European option prices in generic diffusion models.We give a random walk interpretation of cubature and similar (e.g. the Ninomiya-Victoir) weak approximation schemes. By using rough path analysis, we are able to establish weak convergence for general path-dependent option prices.

Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles

PubMed Central

Berry, Steven; Kortum, Samuel; Pakes, Ariel

1996-01-01

This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate “hedonic cost functions” that relate product-level costs to their characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices. PMID:8917486

Using a value chain approach for effective decision making.

PubMed

Wilner, N A

1997-09-01

Effectively managing costs in a healthcare environment may require taking a new look at how those costs are evaluated. The price of a product is not necessarily the most effective or efficient way of determining the actual cost. Using a value chain approach takes into consideration the functional costs of using a product as well, including both the "process" and "downstream" costs to an organization. In this article, Associate Professor Neil A. Wilner examines the differences between price and cost using a typical purchase in a healthcare environment.

Effects of income on drug choice in humans.

PubMed Central

DeGrandpre, R J; Bickel, W K; Rizvi, S A; Hughes, J R

1993-01-01

The effects of income (money available to spend during the experimental session) on human choice were examined in a concurrent-schedule arrangement. Subjects were 7 nicotine-dependent smokers, and reinforcers were puffs on the subject's usual brand of cigarette ("own") and puffs on a less preferred brand of cigarette with equal nicotine content ("other"). Across sessions, income varied and the price of the two reinforcers was held constant, with the other puffs one fifth the price of the own puffs. As income increased, consumption of own puffs increased while consumption of the less expensive other puffs decreased. These effects of income on choice were highly consistent across subjects. For some subjects, however, income had little effect on total puff consumption. Finally, an additional condition examined whether price and income manipulations would have functionally equivalent effects on choice by repeating an income condition in which the price of the other brand was increased. Although the increased price of the other puffs decreased their consumption in 4 subjects, 2 subjects showed increased consumption of the other puffs at the higher price. The results, when defined in economic terms, indicate that the own puffs were a normal good (consumption and income are directly related), the other puffs were an inferior good (consumption and income are inversely related), and the direct relationship between consumption of the other puffs and their price is defined as a Giffengood effect. The latter result also suggests that for these 2 subjects, price and income manipulations had equivalent effects on choice. These results extend findings from previous studies that have examined the effects of income on choice responding to human subjects and drug reinforcers, and provide a framework for further experimental tests of the effects of income on human choice behavior. Methodological and theoretical implications for the study of choice and for behavioral pharmacology are discussed. PMID:8315366

Marginal Cost Pricing in a World without Perfect Competition: Implications for Electricity Markets with High Shares of Low Marginal Cost Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Frew, Bethany A.; Clark, Kara; Bloom, Aaron P.

A common approach to regulating electricity is through auction-based competitive wholesale markets. The goal of this approach is to provide a reliable supply of power at the lowest reasonable cost to the consumer. This necessitates market structures and operating rules that ensure revenue sufficiency for all generators needed for resource adequacy purposes. Wholesale electricity markets employ marginal-cost pricing to provide cost-effective dispatch such that resources are compensated for their operational costs. However, marginal-cost pricing alone cannot guarantee cost recovery outside of perfect competition, and electricity markets have at least six attributes that preclude them from functioning as perfectly competitive markets.more » These attributes include market power, externalities, public good attributes, lack of storage, wholesale price caps, and ineffective demand curve. Until (and unless) these failures are ameliorated, some form of corrective action(s) will be necessary to improve market efficiency so that prices can correctly reflect the needed level of system reliability. Many of these options necessarily involve some form of administrative or out-of-market actions, such as scarcity pricing, capacity payments, bilateral or other out-of-market contracts, or some hybrid combination. A key focus with these options is to create a connection between the electricity market and long-term reliability/loss-of-load expectation targets, which are inherently disconnected in the native markets because of the aforementioned market failures. The addition of variable generation resources can exacerbate revenue sufficiency and resource adequacy concerns caused by these underlying market failures. Because variable generation resources have near-zero marginal costs, they effectively suppress energy prices and reduce the capacity factors of conventional generators through the merit-order effect in the simplest case of a convex market; non-convexities can also suppress prices.« less

Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

2015-12-01

Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of both road and mobile phone networks in the country. Onthe other hand, the model could be further developed as a precious tool for the prediction of futurestaple prices in the country.

Endogenous Market-Clearing Prices and Reference Point Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dragicevic, Arnaud Z.

When prices depend on the submitted bids, i.e. with endogenous market-clearing prices in repeated-round auction mechanisms, the assumption of independent private values that underlines the property of incentive-compatibility is to be brought into question; even if these mechanisms provide active involvement and market learning. In its orthodox view, adaptive bidding behavior imperils incentive-compatibility. We relax the assumption of private values' independence in the repeated-round auctions, when the market-clearing prices are made public at the end of each round. Instead of using game-theory learning models, we introduce a behavioral model that shows that bidders bid according to the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic, which neither ignores the rationality and incentive-compatibility constraints, nor rejects the posted prices issued from others' bids. Bidders simply weight information at their disposal and adjust their discovered value using reference points encoded in the sequential price weighting function. Our model says that bidders and offerers are sincere boundedly rational utility maximizers. It lies between evolutionary dynamics and adaptive heuristics and we model the concept of inertia as high weighting of the anchor, which stands for truthful bidding and high regard to freshly discovered preferences. Adjustment means adaptive rule based on adaptation of the reference point in the direction of the posted price. It helps a bidder to maximize her expected payoff, which is after all the only purpose that matters to rationality. The two components simply suggest that sincere bidders are boundedly rational. Furthermore, by deviating from their anchor in the direction of the public signal, bidders operate in a correlated equilibrium. The correlation between bids comes from the commonly observed history of play and each bidder's actions are determined by the history. Bidders are sincere if they have limited memory and confine their reference point adaptation to their anchor and the latest posted price. S-shaped weighting mechanism reflects such a bidding strategy.

Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning.

PubMed

Sagaon-Teyssier, Luis; Singh, Sauman; Dongmo-Nguimfack, Boniface; Moatti, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants. The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement. ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary. Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases. Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS flexibilities, with a special emphasis on negotiations with generic manufacturers.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q . The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Pricing of swing options: A Monte Carlo simulation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leow, Kai-Siong

We study the problem of pricing swing options, a class of multiple early exercise options that are traded in energy market, particularly in the electricity and natural gas markets. These contracts permit the option holder to periodically exercise the right to trade a variable amount of energy with a counterparty, subject to local volumetric constraints. In addition, the total amount of energy traded from settlement to expiration with the counterparty is restricted by a global volumetric constraint. Violation of this global volumetric constraint is allowed but would lead to penalty settled at expiration. The pricing problem is formulated as a stochastic optimal control problem in discrete time and state space. We present a stochastic dynamic programming algorithm which is based on piecewise linear concave approximation of value functions. This algorithm yields the value of the swing option under the assumption that the optimal exercise policy is applied by the option holder. We present a proof of an almost sure convergence that the algorithm generates the optimal exercise strategy as the number of iterations approaches to infinity. Finally, we provide a numerical example for pricing a natural gas swing call option.

Recurrence interval analysis of trading volumes.

PubMed

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-06-01

We study the statistical properties of the recurrence intervals τ between successive trading volumes exceeding a certain threshold q. The recurrence interval analysis is carried out for the 20 liquid Chinese stocks covering a period from January 2000 to May 2009, and two Chinese indices from January 2003 to April 2009. Similar to the recurrence interval distribution of the price returns, the tail of the recurrence interval distribution of the trading volumes follows a power-law scaling, and the results are verified by the goodness-of-fit tests using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic, the weighted KS statistic and the Cramér-von Mises criterion. The measurements of the conditional probability distribution and the detrended fluctuation function show that both short-term and long-term memory effects exist in the recurrence intervals between trading volumes. We further study the relationship between trading volumes and price returns based on the recurrence interval analysis method. It is found that large trading volumes are more likely to occur following large price returns, and the comovement between trading volumes and price returns is more pronounced for large trading volumes.

Numerical solution of a conspicuous consumption model with constant control delay☆

PubMed Central

Huschto, Tony; Feichtinger, Gustav; Hartl, Richard F.; Kort, Peter M.; Sager, Sebastian; Seidl, Andrea

2011-01-01

We derive optimal pricing strategies for conspicuous consumption products in periods of recession. To that end, we formulate and investigate a two-stage economic optimal control problem that takes uncertainty of the recession period length and delay effects of the pricing strategy into account. This non-standard optimal control problem is difficult to solve analytically, and solutions depend on the variable model parameters. Therefore, we use a numerical result-driven approach. We propose a structure-exploiting direct method for optimal control to solve this challenging optimization problem. In particular, we discretize the uncertainties in the model formulation by using scenario trees and target the control delays by introduction of slack control functions. Numerical results illustrate the validity of our approach and show the impact of uncertainties and delay effects on optimal economic strategies. During the recession, delayed optimal prices are higher than the non-delayed ones. In the normal economic period, however, this effect is reversed and optimal prices with a delayed impact are smaller compared to the non-delayed case. PMID:22267871

A Simultaneous Equation Demand Model for Block Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agthe, Donald E.; Billings, R. Bruce; Dobra, John L.; Raffiee, Kambiz

1986-01-01

This paper examines the problem of simultaneous-equations bias in estimation of the water demand function under an increasing block rate structure. The Hausman specification test is used to detect the presence of simultaneous-equations bias arising from correlation of the price measures with the regression error term in the results of a previously published study of water demand in Tucson, Arizona. An alternative simultaneous equation model is proposed for estimating the elasticity of demand in the presence of block rate pricing structures and availability of service charges. This model is used to reestimate the price and rate premium elasticities of demand in Tucson, Arizona for both the usual long-run static model and for a simple short-run demand model. The results from these simultaneous equation models are consistent with a priori expectations and are unbiased.

Marketing actions can modulate neural representations of experienced pleasantness.

PubMed

Plassmann, Hilke; O'Doherty, John; Shiv, Baba; Rangel, Antonio

2008-01-22

Despite the importance and pervasiveness of marketing, almost nothing is known about the neural mechanisms through which it affects decisions made by individuals. We propose that marketing actions, such as changes in the price of a product, can affect neural representations of experienced pleasantness. We tested this hypothesis by scanning human subjects using functional MRI while they tasted wines that, contrary to reality, they believed to be different and sold at different prices. Our results show that increasing the price of a wine increases subjective reports of flavor pleasantness as well as blood-oxygen-level-dependent activity in medial orbitofrontal cortex, an area that is widely thought to encode for experienced pleasantness during experiential tasks. The paper provides evidence for the ability of marketing actions to modulate neural correlates of experienced pleasantness and for the mechanisms through which the effect operates.

Decentralized supply chain network design: monopoly, duopoly and oligopoly competitions under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyedhosseini, Seyed Mohammad; Fahimi, Kaveh; Makui, Ahmad

2017-12-01

This paper presents the competitive supply chain network design problem in which n decentralized supply chains simultaneously enter the market with no existing rival chain, shape their networks and set wholesale and retail prices in competitive mode. The customer demand is elastic and price dependent, customer utility function is based on the Hoteling model and the chains produce identical or highly substitutable products. We construct a solution algorithm based on bi-level programming and possibility theory. In the proposed bi-level model, the inner part sets the prices based on simultaneous extra- and Stackleberg intra- chains competitions, and the outer part shapes the networks in cooperative competitions. Finally, we use a real-word study to discuss the effect of the different structures of the competitors on the equilibrium solution. Moreover, sensitivity analyses are conducted and managerial insights are offered.

Nonlinear complexity behaviors of agent-based 3D Potts financial dynamics with random environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yani; Wang, Jun

2018-02-01

A new microscopic 3D Potts interaction financial price model is established in this work, to investigate the nonlinear complexity behaviors of stock markets. 3D Potts model, which extends the 2D Potts model to three-dimensional, is a cubic lattice model to explain the interaction behavior among the agents. In order to explore the complexity of real financial markets and the 3D Potts financial model, a new random coarse-grained Lempel-Ziv complexity is proposed to certain series, such as the price returns, the price volatilities, and the random time d-returns. Then the composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) method is applied to the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the corresponding shuffled data to study the complexity behaviors. The empirical results indicate that the 3D financial model is feasible.

African Mining, Gender and Local Employment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tolonen, A.; Kotsadam, A.

2014-12-01

Access to employment improves women's lives and is listed among the top five priorities for promoting gender equality in the 2012 World Development Report. This paper addresses this issue by exploring women's labor market opportunities in Africa within one very important and growing sector: extractive industries. Africa's opportunities are being transformed by new discoveries of natural resources and their rising prices, and the mining sector is the main recipient of foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Whether the discovery of natural resources is a blessing or a curse to a country's citizens is a contentious issue, and natural resource dependence has been linked to negative outcomes at the national level such as environmental degradation, conflict, elite capture of rents and low female labor force participation. Natural resource extraction has been argued to be a hindrance to women's labor market participation by increasing reservation wages and by decreasing market demand for female labor. We perform the first cross-national study testing these hypotheses with micro-data. To do this we combine survey data on 500,000 women in Sub-Saharan Africa with geo-coded data on 900 large-scale mines (see Figure 1). We treat mine openings and mine closings as natural experiments to explore local labor market changes. Industrial mines generate local structural shifts. Subsistence farming becomes less important for both men and women. However, men shift to skilled manual labor, and women shift to service sector jobs. This contradicts the hypothesis that natural resource extraction is detrimental to women, by not providing them with new job opportunities. However, in support of the hypothesis, women decrease their labor market participation more than men do. A back-of-the-envelope calculation estimates that 90,000 women across Africa benefit from service sector jobs as a direct result of industrial mining in their communities, but 280,000 women leave the labor force. Further evidence using exogenous changes in world prices of minerals show that effects are stronger in boom times, but that the labor market effects are temporary and disappear with mine closing. The effects are highly spatially concentrated, and individuals living 50km away from a mine are not affected by it.

Evaluation of a binary optimization approach to find the optimum locations of energy storage devices in a power grid with stochastically varying loads and wind generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dar, Zamiyad

The prices in the electricity market change every five minutes. The prices in peak demand hours can be four or five times more than the prices in normal off peak hours. Renewable energy such as wind power has zero marginal cost and a large percentage of wind energy in a power grid can reduce the price significantly. The variability of wind power prevents it from being constantly available in peak hours. The price differentials between off-peak and on-peak hours due to wind power variations provide an opportunity for a storage device owner to buy energy at a low price and sell it in high price hours. In a large and complex power grid, there are many locations for installation of a storage device. Storage device owners prefer to install their device at locations that allow them to maximize profit. Market participants do not possess much information about the system operator's dispatch, power grid, competing generators and transmission system. The publicly available data from the system operator usually consists of Locational Marginal Prices (LMP), load, reserve prices and regulation prices. In this thesis, we develop a method to find the optimum location of a storage device without using the grid, transmission or generator data. We formulate and solve an optimization problem to find the most profitable location for a storage device using only the publicly available market pricing data such as LMPs, and reserve prices. We consider constraints arising due to storage device operation limitations in our objective function. We use binary optimization and branch and bound method to optimize the operation of a storage device at a given location to earn maximum profit. We use two different versions of our method and optimize the profitability of a storage unit at each location in a 36 bus model of north eastern United States and south eastern Canada for four representative days representing four seasons in a year. Finally, we compare our results from the two versions of our method with a multi period stochastically optimized economic dispatch of the same power system with storage device at locations proposed by our method. We observe a small gap in profit values arising due to the effect of storage device on market prices. However, we observe that the ranking of different locations in terms of profitability remains almost unchanged. This leads us to conclude that our method can successfully predict the optimum locations for installation of storage units in a complex grid using only the publicly available electricity market data.

Applications of statistical physics to technology price evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNerney, James

Understanding how changing technology affects the prices of goods is a problem with both rich phenomenology and important policy consequences. Using methods from statistical physics, I model technology-driven price evolution. First, I examine a model for the price evolution of individual technologies. The price of a good often follows a power law equation when plotted against its cumulative production. This observation turns out to have significant consequences for technology policy aimed at mitigating climate change, where technologies are needed that achieve low carbon emissions at low cost. However, no theory adequately explains why technology prices follow power laws. To understand this behavior, I simplify an existing model that treats technologies as machines composed of interacting components. I find that the power law exponent of the price trajectory is inversely related to the number of interactions per component. I extend the model to allow for more realistic component interactions and make a testable prediction. Next, I conduct a case-study on the cost evolution of coal-fired electricity. I derive the cost in terms of various physical and economic components. The results suggest that commodities and technologies fall into distinct classes of price models, with commodities following martingales, and technologies following exponentials in time or power laws in cumulative production. I then examine the network of money flows between industries. This work is a precursor to studying the simultaneous evolution of multiple technologies. Economies resemble large machines, with different industries acting as interacting components with specialized functions. To begin studying the structure of these machines, I examine 20 economies with an emphasis on finding common features to serve as targets for statistical physics models. I find they share the same money flow and industry size distributions. I apply methods from statistical physics to show that industries cluster the same way according to industry type. Finally, I use these industry money flows to model the price evolution of many goods simultaneously, where network effects become important. I derive a prediction for which goods tend to improve most rapidly. The fastest-improving goods are those with the highest mean path lengths in the money flow network.

Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsan, Serhiy

2005-07-01

A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to certain nodes at system peak load. Determining those nodes is an important task for an investor in generation as well as the transmission system operator.

Real Time Pricing as a Default or Optional Service for C&ICustomers: A Comparative Analysis of Eight Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barbose, Galen; Goldman, Charles; Bharvirkar, Ranjit

Demand response (DR) has been broadly recognized to be an integral component of well-functioning electricity markets, although currently underdeveloped in most regions. Among the various initiatives undertaken to remedy this deficiency, public utility commissions (PUC) and utilities have considered implementing dynamic pricing tariffs, such as real-time pricing (RTP), and other retail pricing mechanisms that communicate an incentive for electricity consumers to reduce their usage during periods of high generation supply costs or system reliability contingencies. Efforts to introduce DR into retail electricity markets confront a range of basic policy issues. First, a fundamental issue in any market context is howmore » to organize the process for developing and implementing DR mechanisms in a manner that facilitates productive participation by affected stakeholder groups. Second, in regions with retail choice, policymakers and stakeholders face the threshold question of whether it is appropriate for utilities to offer a range of dynamic pricing tariffs and DR programs, or just ''plain vanilla'' default service. Although positions on this issue may be based primarily on principle, two empirical questions may have some bearing--namely, what level of price response can be expected through the competitive retail market, and whether establishing RTP as the default service is likely to result in an appreciable level of DR? Third, if utilities are to have a direct role in developing DR, what types of retail pricing mechanisms are most appropriate and likely to have the desired policy impact (e.g., RTP, other dynamic pricing options, DR programs, or some combination)? Given a decision to develop utility RTP tariffs, three basic implementation issues require attention. First, should it be a default or optional tariff, and for which customer classes? Second, what types of tariff design is most appropriate, given prevailing policy objectives, wholesale market structure, ratemaking practices and standards, and customer preferences? Third, if a primary goal for RTP implementation is to induce DR, what types of supplemental activities are warranted to support customer participation and price response (e.g., interval metering deployment, customer education, and technical assistance)?« less

RNA Interference for Functional Genomics and Improvement of Cotton (Gossypium sp.)

PubMed Central

Abdurakhmonov, Ibrokhim Y.; Ayubov, Mirzakamol S.; Ubaydullaeva, Khurshida A.; Buriev, Zabardast T.; Shermatov, Shukhrat E.; Ruziboev, Haydarali S.; Shapulatov, Umid M.; Saha, Sukumar; Ulloa, Mauricio; Yu, John Z.; Percy, Richard G.; Devor, Eric J.; Sharma, Govind C.; Sripathi, Venkateswara R.; Kumpatla, Siva P.; van der Krol, Alexander; Kater, Hake D.; Khamidov, Khakimdjan; Salikhov, Shavkat I.; Jenkins, Johnie N.; Abdukarimov, Abdusattor; Pepper, Alan E.

2016-01-01

RNA interference (RNAi), is a powerful new technology in the discovery of genetic sequence functions, and has become a valuable tool for functional genomics of cotton (Gossypium sp.). The rapid adoption of RNAi has replaced previous antisense technology. RNAi has aided in the discovery of function and biological roles of many key cotton genes involved in fiber development, fertility and somatic embryogenesis, resistance to important biotic and abiotic stresses, and oil and seed quality improvements as well as the key agronomic traits including yield and maturity. Here, we have comparatively reviewed seminal research efforts in previously used antisense approaches and currently applied breakthrough RNAi studies in cotton, analyzing developed RNAi methodologies, achievements, limitations, and future needs in functional characterizations of cotton genes. We also highlighted needed efforts in the development of RNAi-based cotton cultivars, and their safety and risk assessment, small and large-scale field trials, and commercialization. PMID:26941765

RNA Interference for Functional Genomics and Improvement of Cotton (Gossypium sp.).

PubMed

Abdurakhmonov, Ibrokhim Y; Ayubov, Mirzakamol S; Ubaydullaeva, Khurshida A; Buriev, Zabardast T; Shermatov, Shukhrat E; Ruziboev, Haydarali S; Shapulatov, Umid M; Saha, Sukumar; Ulloa, Mauricio; Yu, John Z; Percy, Richard G; Devor, Eric J; Sharma, Govind C; Sripathi, Venkateswara R; Kumpatla, Siva P; van der Krol, Alexander; Kater, Hake D; Khamidov, Khakimdjan; Salikhov, Shavkat I; Jenkins, Johnie N; Abdukarimov, Abdusattor; Pepper, Alan E

2016-01-01

RNA interference (RNAi), is a powerful new technology in the discovery of genetic sequence functions, and has become a valuable tool for functional genomics of cotton (Gossypium sp.). The rapid adoption of RNAi has replaced previous antisense technology. RNAi has aided in the discovery of function and biological roles of many key cotton genes involved in fiber development, fertility and somatic embryogenesis, resistance to important biotic and abiotic stresses, and oil and seed quality improvements as well as the key agronomic traits including yield and maturity. Here, we have comparatively reviewed seminal research efforts in previously used antisense approaches and currently applied breakthrough RNAi studies in cotton, analyzing developed RNAi methodologies, achievements, limitations, and future needs in functional characterizations of cotton genes. We also highlighted needed efforts in the development of RNAi-based cotton cultivars, and their safety and risk assessment, small and large-scale field trials, and commercialization.

Sorting Through Vendors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirsch, Jim

2001-01-01

Offers advice on selecting online vendors, such as determining quality, graduation credit, course articulation, delivery equipment, teacher support, handicap accessibility, pricing methods, and grading functions. Includes a selected list of vendors of online courses. (PKP)

An integrative model for in-silico clinical-genomics discovery science.

PubMed

Lussier, Yves A; Sarkar, Indra Nell; Cantor, Michael

2002-01-01

Human Genome discovery research has set the pace for Post-Genomic Discovery Research. While post-genomic fields focused at the molecular level are intensively pursued, little effort is being deployed in the later stages of molecular medicine discovery research, such as clinical-genomics. The objective of this study is to demonstrate the relevance and significance of integrating mainstream clinical informatics decision support systems to current bioinformatics genomic discovery science. This paper is a feasibility study of an original model enabling novel "in-silico" clinical-genomic discovery science and that demonstrates its feasibility. This model is designed to mediate queries among clinical and genomic knowledge bases with relevant bioinformatic analytic tools (e.g. gene clustering). Briefly, trait-disease-gene relationships were successfully illustrated using QMR, OMIM, SNOMED-RT, GeneCluster and TreeView. The analyses were visualized as two-dimensional dendrograms of clinical observations clustered around genes. To our knowledge, this is the first study using knowledge bases of clinical decision support systems for genomic discovery. Although this study is a proof of principle, it provides a framework for the development of clinical decision-support-system driven, high-throughput clinical-genomic technologies which could potentially unveil significant high-level functions of genes.

Projections of the demand for national forest stumpage by region: 1980-2030.

Treesearch

Richard W. Haynes; Kent P. Connaughton; Darius M. Adams

1981-01-01

The concept of regional demand is described and applied to the demand for National Forest stumpage. Specifically, demand functions for stumpage (price-quantity relationships) are developed by decade for the major National Forest Regions. The' demand functions are consistent with the 1980 timber program prepared under requirements of the Renewable Resources...

Illustrating Consumer Theory with the CES Utility Function

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tohamy, Soumaya M.; Mixon, J. Wilson, Jr.

2004-01-01

The authors use Microsoft Excel to derive compensated and uncompensated demand curves. They use a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) utility function to show how changes in a good's price or income affect the quantities demanded of that good and of the other composite good, using Excel's Solver. They provide three contributions. First, they…

[Are Higher Prices for Larger Femoral Heads in Total Hip Arthroplasty Justified from the Perspective of Health Care Economics? An Analysis of Costs and Effects in Germany].

PubMed

Grunert, R; Schleifenbaum, S; Möbius, R; Sommer, G; Zajonz, D; Hammer, N; Prietzel, T

2017-02-01

Background: In total hip arthroplasty (THA), femoral head diameter has not been regarded as a key parameter which should be restored when reconstructing joint biomechanics and geometry. Apart from the controversial discussion on the advantages and disadvantages of using larger diameter heads, their higher cost is another important reason that they have only been used to a limited extent. The goal of this study was to analyse the price structure of prosthetic heads in comparison to other components used in THA. A large group of patients with hip endoprostheses were evaluated with respect to the implanted socket diameter and thus the theoretically attainable head diameter. Materials and Methods: The relative prices of various THA components (cups, inserts, stems and ball heads) distributed by two leading German manufacturers were determined and analysed. Special attention was paid to different sizes and varieties in a series of components. A large patient population treated with THA was evaluated with respect to the implanted cup diameter and therefore the theoretically attainable head diameter. Results: The pricing analysis of the THA components of two manufacturers showed identical prices for cups, inserts and stems in a series. In contrast to this, the prices for prosthetic heads with a diameter of 36-44 mm were 11-50 % higher than for 28 mm heads. Identical prices for larger heads were the exception. The distribution of the head diameter in 2719 THA cases showed significant differences between the actually implanted and the theoretically attainable heads. Conclusion: There are proven advantages in using larger diameter ball heads in THA and the remaining problems can be solved. It is therefore desirable to correct the current pricing practice of charging higher prices for larger components. Instead, identical prices should be charged for all head diameters in a series, as is currently established practice for all other THA components. Thus when reconstructing biomechanics and joint geometry in THA, it should be possible to recover not only leg length, femoral offset and antetorsion of the femoral neck, but also to approximately restore the diameter of the femoral head and thereby optimise the functional outcome. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Co-movement measure of information transmission on international equity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al Rahahleh, Naseem; Bhatti, M. Ishaq

2017-03-01

Recently, Bhatti and Nguyen (2012) used EVT and various stochastic copulas to study the cross-country co-movements diversification and asset pricing allocation. Weiss (2013) observed that Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) models outperform various copula models. This paper attempts to contribute to the literature on multivariate models for capturing forward and backward return co-movement, spillover effects and volatility linkages. It reflects cross-country forward and backward co-movements more clearly among various coupled international stock markets relating to information transmission and price discovery for making investment decisions. Given the reality of fat-tail or skewed distribution of financial data, this paper proposes the use of VECM-DCC and VAR-DCC models which capture dynamic dependences between the Australian and other selected international financial stock markets. We observe that the return co-movement effects between Australian and Asian countries are bidirectional ((AUS ↔ Hong Kong), (AUS ↔ Japan)) with the exception of Taiwan (AUS → Taiwan). We also observe that the volatility spillover between the Australian and both the UK and the US markets are bidirectional with a larger volatility spillover from both toward the AUS market. Further, the UK market has a higher volatility spillover on the Australian market compared to the US market and the US market has a higher volatility spillover on the UK than that of the Australian market.

SOCR Motion Charts: An Efficient, Open-Source, Interactive and Dynamic Applet for Visualizing Longitudinal Multivariate Data

PubMed Central

Al-Aziz, Jameel; Christou, Nicolas; Dinov, Ivo D.

2011-01-01

The amount, complexity and provenance of data have dramatically increased in the past five years. Visualization of observed and simulated data is a critical component of any social, environmental, biomedical or scientific quest. Dynamic, exploratory and interactive visualization of multivariate data, without preprocessing by dimensionality reduction, remains a nearly insurmountable challenge. The Statistics Online Computational Resource (www.SOCR.ucla.edu) provides portable online aids for probability and statistics education, technology-based instruction and statistical computing. We have developed a new Java-based infrastructure, SOCR Motion Charts, for discovery-based exploratory analysis of multivariate data. This interactive data visualization tool enables the visualization of high-dimensional longitudinal data. SOCR Motion Charts allows mapping of ordinal, nominal and quantitative variables onto time, 2D axes, size, colors, glyphs and appearance characteristics, which facilitates the interactive display of multidimensional data. We validated this new visualization paradigm using several publicly available multivariate datasets including Ice-Thickness, Housing Prices, Consumer Price Index, and California Ozone Data. SOCR Motion Charts is designed using object-oriented programming, implemented as a Java Web-applet and is available to the entire community on the web at www.socr.ucla.edu/SOCR_MotionCharts. It can be used as an instructional tool for rendering and interrogating high-dimensional data in the classroom, as well as a research tool for exploratory data analysis. PMID:21479108

A Knowledge Discovery from POS Data using State Space Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Tadahiko; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

The number of competing-brands changes by new product's entry. The new product introduction is endemic among consumer packaged goods firm and is an integral component of their marketing strategy. As a new product's entry affects markets, there is a pressing need to develop market response model that can adapt to such changes. In this paper, we develop a dynamic model that capture the underlying evolution of the buying behavior associated with the new product. This extends an application of a dynamic linear model, which is used by a number of time series analyses, by allowing the observed dimension to change at some point in time. Our model copes with a problem that dynamic environments entail: changes in parameter over time and changes in the observed dimension. We formulate the model with framework of a state space model. We realize an estimation of the model using modified Kalman filter/fixed interval smoother. We find that new product's entry (1) decreases brand differentiation for existing brands, as indicated by decreasing difference between cross-price elasticities; (2) decreases commodity power for existing brands, as indicated by decreasing trend; and (3) decreases the effect of discount for existing brands, as indicated by a decrease in the magnitude of own-brand price elasticities. The proposed framework is directly applicable to other fields in which the observed dimension might be change, such as economic, bioinformatics, and so forth.

Assessments and market design for the water market at Xiying Irrigation, Shiyang River Basin, Gansu Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, T.; Zhao, J.; Zheng, H.

2016-12-01

As one of the pilot water markets in China, the market in Xiying Irrigation was built in 2008. Based on the historical trading data, it can be concluded that the studied market is growing but facing quite a few challenges. To solve these challenges, the first step we have done is assessment on the market. Some comparable indices were introduced from network science by us. These indices straightforwardly show the status and major problems in the market. One main problem we have found from surveys and our assessment is that there are barriers between distant seller and buyer. This discovery incentives us to develop a new mechanism for matching sellers and buyers to reduce the loss on social welfare. By modelling the trading barriers between a buyer and a seller as an indicator -- tradable or nontradable, the authors propose a mixed-integer linear programming algorithm to optimize the social welfare. According to the theories on competitive equilibrium, the authors are able to extend the programming to compute a reasonable price profile for each pair of tradable seller and buyer. It can be proved that given the price profile, the optimal strategy for each seller or buyer is to follow the optimal assignment. This mechanism significantly reduces the social welfare loss. However, this study shows that removing the trading barriers can brings more social welfare increments.

Service Discovery Oriented Management System Construction Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huawei; Ren, Ying

2017-10-01

In order to solve the problem that there is no uniform method for design service quality management system in large-scale complex service environment, this paper proposes a distributed service-oriented discovery management system construction method. Three measurement functions are proposed to compute nearest neighbor user similarity at different levels. At present in view of the low efficiency of service quality management systems, three solutions are proposed to improve the efficiency of the system. Finally, the key technologies of distributed service quality management system based on service discovery are summarized through the factor addition and subtraction of quantitative experiment.

Unusual flavoenzyme catalysis in marine bacteria

PubMed Central

Teufel, Robin; Agarwal, Vinayak; Moore, Bradley S.

2016-01-01

Ever since the discovery of the flavin cofactor more than 80 years ago, flavin-dependent enzymes have emerged as ubiquitous and versatile redox catalysts in primary metabolism. Yet, the recent advances in the discovery and characterization of secondary metabolic pathways exposed new roles for flavin-mediated catalysis in the generation of structurally complex natural products. Here, we review a selection of key biosynthetic flavoenzymes from marine bacterial secondary metabolism and illustrate how their functional and mechanistic investigation expanded our view of the cofactor's chemical repertoire and led to the discovery of a previously unknown flavin redox state. PMID:26803009

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future.

PubMed

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2010-07-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience.

Protein Complex Production from the Drug Discovery Standpoint.

PubMed

Moarefi, Ismail

2016-01-01

Small molecule drug discovery critically depends on the availability of meaningful in vitro assays to guide medicinal chemistry programs that are aimed at optimizing drug potency and selectivity. As it becomes increasingly evident, most disease relevant drug targets do not act as a single protein. In the body, they are instead generally found in complex with protein cofactors that are highly relevant for their correct function and regulation. This review highlights selected examples of the increasing trend to use biologically relevant protein complexes for rational drug discovery to reduce costly late phase attritions due to lack of efficacy or toxicity.

Optimization of ADME Properties for Sulfonamides Leading to the Discovery of a T-Type Calcium Channel Blocker, ABT-639

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The discovery of a novel peripherally acting and selective Cav3.2 T-type calcium channel blocker, ABT-639, is described. HTS hits 1 and 2, which have poor metabolic stability, were optimized to obtain 4, which has improved stability and oral bioavailability. Modification of 4 to further improve ADME properties led to the discovery of ABT-639. Following oral administration, ABT-639 produces robust antinociceptive activity in experimental pain models at doses that do not significantly alter psychomotor or hemodynamic function in the rat. PMID:26101566

Optimization of ADME Properties for Sulfonamides Leading to the Discovery of a T-Type Calcium Channel Blocker, ABT-639.

PubMed

Zhang, Qingwei; Xia, Zhiren; Joshi, Shailen; Scott, Victoria E; Jarvis, Michael F

2015-06-11

The discovery of a novel peripherally acting and selective Cav3.2 T-type calcium channel blocker, ABT-639, is described. HTS hits 1 and 2, which have poor metabolic stability, were optimized to obtain 4, which has improved stability and oral bioavailability. Modification of 4 to further improve ADME properties led to the discovery of ABT-639. Following oral administration, ABT-639 produces robust antinociceptive activity in experimental pain models at doses that do not significantly alter psychomotor or hemodynamic function in the rat.

100 years of Drosophila research and its impact on vertebrate neuroscience: a history lesson for the future

PubMed Central

Bellen, Hugo J; Tong, Chao; Tsuda, Hiroshi

2014-01-01

Discoveries in fruit flies have greatly contributed to our understanding of neuroscience. The use of an unparalleled wealth of tools, many of which originated between 1910–1960, has enabled milestone discoveries in nervous system development and function. Such findings have triggered and guided many research efforts in vertebrate neuroscience. After 100 years, fruit flies continue to be the choice model system for many neuroscientists. The combinational use of powerful research tools will ensure that this model organism will continue to lead to key discoveries that will impact vertebrate neuroscience. PMID:20383202

Characterization and correction of the false-discovery rates in resting state connectivity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santosa, Hendrik; Aarabi, Ardalan; Perlman, Susan B.; Huppert, Theodore J.

2017-05-01

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a noninvasive neuroimaging technique that uses low levels of red to near-infrared light to measure changes in cerebral blood oxygenation. Spontaneous (resting state) functional connectivity (sFC) has become a critical tool for cognitive neuroscience for understanding task-independent neural networks, revealing pertinent details differentiating healthy from disordered brain function, and discovering fluctuations in the synchronization of interacting individuals during hyperscanning paradigms. Two of the main challenges to sFC-NIRS analysis are (i) the slow temporal structure of both systemic physiology and the response of blood vessels, which introduces false spurious correlations, and (ii) motion-related artifacts that result from movement of the fNIRS sensors on the participants' head and can introduce non-normal and heavy-tailed noise structures. In this work, we systematically examine the false-discovery rates of several time- and frequency-domain metrics of functional connectivity for characterizing sFC-NIRS. Specifically, we detail the modifications to the statistical models of these methods needed to avoid high levels of false-discovery related to these two sources of noise in fNIRS. We compare these analysis procedures using both simulated and experimental resting-state fNIRS data. Our proposed robust correlation method has better performance in terms of being more reliable to the noise outliers due to the motion artifacts.

Optimal residential water conservation strategies considering related energy in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escriva-Bou, Alvar; Lund, Jay R.; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2015-06-01

Although most freshwater resources are used in agriculture, residential water use is a much more energy intensive user. Based on this, we analyze the increased willingness to adopt water conservation strategies if energy cost is included in the customers' utility function. Using a Water-Energy-CO2 emissions model for household water end uses and probability distribution functions for parameters affecting water and water-related energy use in 10 different locations in California, this research introduces a probabilistic two-stage optimization model considering technical and behavioral decision variables to obtain the most economical strategies to minimize household water and water-related energy bills and costs given both water and energy price shocks. Results can provide an upper bound of household savings for customers with well-behaved preferences, and show greater adoption rates to reduce energy intensive appliances when energy is accounted, resulting in an overall 24% reduction in indoor water use that represents a 30% reduction in water-related energy use and a 53% reduction in household water-related CO2 emissions. Previous use patterns and water and energy rate structures can affect greatly the potential benefits for customers and so their behavior. Given that water and energy are somewhat complementary goods for customers, we use results of the optimization to obtain own-price and cross-price elasticities of residential water use by simulating increases in water and energy prices. While the results are highly influenced by assumptions due to lack of empirical data, the method presented has no precedent in the literature and hopefully will stimulate the collection of additional relevant data.

Aptamers as tools for target prioritization and lead identification.

PubMed

Burgstaller, Petra; Girod, Anne; Blind, Michael

2002-12-15

The increasing number of potential drug target candidates has driven the development of novel technologies designed to identify functionally important targets and enhance the subsequent lead discovery process. Highly specific synthetic nucleic acid ligands--also known as aptamers--offer a new exciting route in the drug discovery process by linking target validation directly with HTS. Recently, aptamers have proven to be valuable tools for modulating the function of endogenous cellular proteins in their natural environment. A set of technologies has been developed to use these sophisticated ligands for the validation of potential drug targets in disease models. Moreover, aptamers that are specific antagonists of protein function can act as substitute interaction partners in HTS assays to facilitate the identification of small-molecule lead compounds.