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Sample records for prices forecast comparison aeo

  1. Comparison of AEO 2006 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2005-12-19

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2006'' (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO

  2. Comparison of AEO 2007 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX FuturesPrices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-12-06

    On December 5, 2006, the reference case projections from 'Annual Energy Outlook 2007' (AEO 2007) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk (see, for example, http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf). As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past six years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past six years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable-price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are 'biased' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2007. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past six AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2006), we

  3. Comparison of AEO 2005 natural gas price forecast to NYMEX futures prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2004-12-13

    On December 9, the reference case projections from ''Annual Energy Outlook 2005 (AEO 2005)'' were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. As some of you may be aware, we at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past four years, forward natural gas contracts (e.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past four years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation that have been based on AEO natural gas price forecasts (rather than forward prices) have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation (presuming that long-term price stability is valued). In this memo we simply update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2005. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic; readers interested in such information are encouraged to download that work from http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/EMS/reports/53587.pdf or, more recently (and briefly), http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/reports/54751.pdf. As was the case in the past four AEO releases (AEO 2001-AE0 2004), we once again find that the AEO 2005 reference case gas price forecast falls well below

  4. Comparison of AEO 2010 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A.; Wiser, Ryan H.

    2010-01-04

    On December 14, 2009, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2010 were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in itigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings.

  5. Comparison of AEO 2008 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-01-07

    On December 12, 2007, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO 2008) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof) or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers (though its appeal has diminished somewhat as prices have increased); and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal and

  6. Comparison of AEO 2009 Natural Gas Price Forecast to NYMEX Futures Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2009-01-28

    On December 17, 2008, the reference-case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have, in the past, compared the EIA's reference-case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market, with the goal of better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables can play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO reference-case gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. This brief memo presents our findings. Note that this memo pertains only to natural gas fuel price risk (i.e., the risk that natural gas prices might differ over the life of a gas-fired generation asset from what was expected when the decision to build the gas-fired unit was made). We do not take into consideration any of the other distinct attributes of gas-fired and renewable generation, such as dispatchability (or lack thereof), differences in capital costs and O&M expenses, or environmental externalities. A comprehensive comparison of different resource types--which is well beyond the scope of this memo--would need to account for differences in all such attributes, including fuel price risk. Furthermore, our analysis focuses solely on natural-gas-fired generation (as opposed to coal-fired or nuclear generation, for example), for several reasons: (1) price volatility has been more of a concern for natural gas than for other fuels used to generate power; (2) for environmental and other reasons, natural gas has, in recent years, been the fuel of choice among power plant developers; and (3) natural gas-fired generators often set the market clearing price in competitive wholesale power markets throughout the United States. That said, a more-complete analysis of how renewables mitigate fuel price risk would also need to consider coal, uranium, and

  7. Natural Gas Prices Forecast Comparison--AEO vs. Natural Gas Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Lekov, Alex; Dale, Larry

    2005-02-09

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of two methods to forecast natural gas prices: using the Energy Information Administration's ''Annual Energy Outlook'' forecasted price (AEO) and the ''Henry Hub'' compared to U.S. Wellhead futures price. A statistical analysis is performed to determine the relative accuracy of the two measures in the recent past. A statistical analysis suggests that the Henry Hub futures price provides a more accurate average forecast of natural gas prices than the AEO. For example, the Henry Hub futures price underestimated the natural gas price by 35 cents per thousand cubic feet (11.5 percent) between 1996 and 2003 and the AEO underestimated by 71 cents per thousand cubic feet (23.4 percent). Upon closer inspection, a liner regression analysis reveals that two distinct time periods exist, the period between 1996 to 1999 and the period between 2000 to 2003. For the time period between 1996 to 1999, AEO showed a weak negative correlation (R-square = 0.19) between forecast price by actual U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub with a weak positive correlation (R-square = 0.20) between forecasted price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. During the time period between 2000 to 2003, AEO shows a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.37) between forecasted natural gas price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price versus the Henry Hub that show a moderate positive correlation (R-square = 0.36) between forecast price and U.S. Wellhead natural gas price. These results suggest that agencies forecasting natural gas prices should consider incorporating the Henry Hub natural gas futures price into their forecasting models along with the AEO forecast. Our analysis is very preliminary and is based on a very small data set. Naturally the results of the analysis may change, as more data is made available.

  8. Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices in AEO (released in AEO2009)

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

  9. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  10. Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

  11. Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS.

  12. Forecasting Long-Run Electricity Prices

    SciTech Connect

    Hamm, Gregory; Borison, Adam

    2006-08-15

    Estimation of long-run electricity prices is extremely important but it is also very difficult because of the many uncertainties that will determine future prices, and because of the lack of sufficient historical and forwards data. The difficulty is compounded when forecasters ignore part of the available information or unnecessarily limit their thinking about the future. The authors present a practical approach that addresses these problems. (author)

  13. Empirical prediction intervals improve energy forecasting.

    PubMed

    Kaack, Lynn H; Apt, Jay; Morgan, M Granger; McSharry, Patrick

    2017-08-15

    Hundreds of organizations and analysts use energy projections, such as those contained in the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)'s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), for investment and policy decisions. Retrospective analyses of past AEO projections have shown that observed values can differ from the projection by several hundred percent, and thus a thorough treatment of uncertainty is essential. We evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several empirical density forecasting methods, using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The analysis confirms that a Gaussian density, estimated on past forecasting errors, gives comparatively accurate uncertainty estimates over a variety of energy quantities in the AEO, in particular outperforming scenario projections provided in the AEO. We report probabilistic uncertainties for 18 core quantities of the AEO 2016 projections. Our work frames how to produce, evaluate, and rank probabilistic forecasts in this setting. We propose a log transformation of forecast errors for price projections and a modified nonparametric empirical density forecasting method. Our findings give guidance on how to evaluate and communicate uncertainty in future energy outlooks.

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk: Using forward natural gas prices instead of gas price forecasts to compare renewable to natural gas-fired generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2003-08-13

    Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gas prices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gas price forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gas price forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gas price risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e

  15. Forecasting Crude Oil Spot Price Using OECD Petroleum Inventory Levels

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) petroleum inventory levels.

  16. Support vector machine for day ahead electricity price forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razak, Intan Azmira binti Wan Abdul; Abidin, Izham bin Zainal; Siah, Yap Keem; Rahman, Titik Khawa binti Abdul; Lada, M. Y.; Ramani, Anis Niza binti; Nasir, M. N. M.; Ahmad, Arfah binti

    2015-05-01

    Electricity price forecasting has become an important part of power system operation and planning. In a pool- based electric energy market, producers submit selling bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding minimum selling prices to the market operator. Meanwhile, consumers submit buying bids consisting in energy blocks and their corresponding maximum buying prices to the market operator. Hence, both producers and consumers use day ahead price forecasts to derive their respective bidding strategies to the electricity market yet reduce the cost of electricity. However, forecasting electricity prices is a complex task because price series is a non-stationary and highly volatile series. Many factors cause for price spikes such as volatility in load and fuel price as well as power import to and export from outside the market through long term contract. This paper introduces an approach of machine learning algorithm for day ahead electricity price forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). Previous day data of Hourly Ontario Electricity Price (HOEP), generation's price and demand from Ontario power market are used as the inputs for training data. The simulation is held using LSSVMlab in Matlab with the training and testing data of 2004. SVM that widely used for classification and regression has great generalization ability with structured risk minimization principle rather than empirical risk minimization. Moreover, same parameter settings in trained SVM give same results that absolutely reduce simulation process compared to other techniques such as neural network and time series. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the proposed model shows that SVM performs well compared to neural network.

  17. High Resolution Imaging with AEOS

    SciTech Connect

    Patience, J; Macintosh, B A; Max, C E

    2001-08-27

    The U. S. Air Force Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) which includes a 941 actuator adaptive optics system on a 3.7m telescope has recently been made available for astronomical programs. Operating at a wavelength of 750 nm, the diffraction-limited angular resolution of the system is 0.04 inches; currently, the magnitude limit is V {approx} 7 mag. At the distances of nearby open clusters, diffraction-limited images should resolve companions with separations as small as 4-6 AU--comparable to the Sun-Jupiter distance. The ability to study such close separations is critical, since most companions are expected to have separations in the few AU to tens of AU range. With the exceptional angular resolution of the current AEOS setup, but restricted target magnitude range, we are conducting a companion search of a large, well-defined sample of bright early-type stars in nearby open clusters and in the field. Our data set will both characterize this relatively new adaptive optics system and answer questions in binary star formation and stellar X-ray activity. We will discuss our experience using AEOS, the data analysis involved, and our initial results.

  18. Next Day Price Forecasting in Deregulated Market by Combination of Artificial Neural Network and ARIMA Time Series Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Areekul, Phatchakorn; Senjyu, Tomonobu; Urasaki, Naomitsu; Yona, Atsushi

    Electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to power producers and consumers in the new competitive electric power markets, when planning bidding strategies in order to maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper proposed a method to predict hourly electricity prices for next-day electricity markets by combination methodology of ARIMA and ANN models. The proposed method is examined on the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), New South Wales regional in year 2006. Comparison of forecasting performance with the proposed ARIMA, ANN and combination (ARIMA-ANN) models are presented. Empirical results indicate that an ARIMA-ANN model can improve the price forecasting accuracy.

  19. Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Szkuta, B.R.; Sanabria, L.A.; Dillon, T.S.

    1999-08-01

    This paper presents the System Marginal Price (SMP) short-term forecasting implementation using the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) computing technique. The described approach uses the three-layered ANN paradigm with back-propagation. The retrospective SMP real-world data, acquired from the deregulated Victorian power system, was used for training and testing the ANN. The results presented in this paper confirm considerable value of the ANN based approach in forecasting the SMP.

  20. Wavelet regression model in forecasting crude oil price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, Mohd Helmie; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    This study presents the performance of wavelet multiple linear regression (WMLR) technique in daily crude oil forecasting. WMLR model was developed by integrating the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The original time series was decomposed to sub-time series with different scales by wavelet theory. Correlation analysis was conducted to assist in the selection of optimal decomposed components as inputs for the WMLR model. The daily WTI crude oil price series has been used in this study to test the prediction capability of the proposed model. The forecasting performance of WMLR model were also compared with regular multiple linear regression (MLR), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) using root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE). Based on the experimental results, it appears that the WMLR model performs better than the other forecasting technique tested in this study.

  1. 76 FR 9696 - Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-22

    ... Parts 430 and 431 Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis AGENCY: Office..., Mailstop EE-2J, Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis, EE-2008-BT-STD- 0012..., the price projections affect the economic impacts calculated for any potential energy conservation...

  2. Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

    2017-05-01

    Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

  3. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting 1998

    SciTech Connect

    1998-07-01

    Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 (Issues) presents a series of nine papers covering topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98), as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets. AEO98, DOE/EIA-0383(98), published in December 1997, presents national forecasts of energy production, demand, imports, and prices through the year 2020 for five cases -- a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. The forecasts were prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), using EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The papers included in Issues describe underlying analyses for the projections in AEO98 and the forthcoming Annual Energy Outlook 1999 and for other products of EIA`s Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. Their purpose is to provide public access to analytical work done in preparation for the midterm projections and other unpublished analyses. Specific topics were chosen for their relevance to current energy issues or to highlight modeling activities in NEMS. 59 figs., 44 tabs.

  4. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... 19 Customs Duties 3 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Comparison of normal value with export price... value and, in an investigation, prices used as the basis for export price or constructed export price...

  5. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... 19 Customs Duties 3 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Comparison of normal value with export price... making comparisons of export price or constructed export price with normal value. (See section 777A(d)...

  6. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... 19 Customs Duties 3 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Comparison of normal value with export price... making comparisons of export price or constructed export price with normal value. (See section 777A(d)...

  7. Hidden Markov Model and Forward-Backward Algorithm in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talib Bon, Abdul; Isah, Nuhu

    2016-11-01

    In light of the importance of crude oil to the world's economy, it is not surprising that economists have devoted great efforts towards developing methods to forecast price and volatility levels. Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile such as economic, political and social. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid unforeseen circumstances towards economic activity. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2nd January to 29th May 2015. We used Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and Forward-Backward Algorithm to forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using Maple software. Based on the study, we concluded that model (0 3 0) is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  8. Dynamical behavior of price forecasting in structures of group correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong; Kim, Kyungsik

    2015-07-01

    We investigate the prediction of the future prices from the structures and the networks of the companies in special financial groups. After the financial group network has been constructed from the value of the high cross-correlation, each company in a group is simulated and analyzed how it buys or sells stock is anaylzed and how it makes rational investments is forecasted. In the shortmemory behavior rather than the long-memory behavior, each company among a group can make a rational investment decision by using a stochastic evolution rule in the financial network. In particular, we simulate and analyze the investment situation in connection with the empirical data and the simulated result.

  9. Comparing Price Forecast Accuracy of Natural Gas Models andFutures Markets

    SciTech Connect

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Dale, Larry; Lekov, Alex

    2005-06-30

    The purpose of this article is to compare the accuracy of forecasts for natural gas prices as reported by the Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) and the futures market for the period from 1998 to 2003. The analysis tabulates the existing data and develops a statistical comparison of the error between STEO and U.S. wellhead natural gas prices and between Henry Hub and U.S. wellhead spot prices. The results indicate that, on average, Henry Hub is a better predictor of natural gas prices with an average error of 0.23 and a standard deviation of 1.22 than STEO with an average error of -0.52 and a standard deviation of 1.36. This analysis suggests that as the futures market continues to report longer forward prices (currently out to five years), it may be of interest to economic modelers to compare the accuracy of their models to the futures market. The authors would especially like to thank Doug Hale of the Energy Information Administration for supporting and reviewing this work.

  10. Forecasting prices of single family homes using GIS-defined neighborhoods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaboudan, Mak; Sarkar, Avijit

    2008-03-01

    We estimate spatiotemporal models of average neighborhood single family home prices to use in predicting individual property prices. Average home-price variations are explained in terms of changes in average neighborhood house attributes, spatial attributes, and temporal economic variables. Models adopting three different definitions of neighborhoods are estimated with quarterly cross-sectional data over the period 2000 2004 from four cities in Southern California. Heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problems are detected and adjusted for via a sequential routine. Results of these models suggest that forecasts obtained using city neighborhood average price equations may have advantage over forecasts obtained using city aggregated price equations.

  11. 16 CFR 233.1 - Former price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.1 Former price comparisons. (a) One of the most commonly used forms of bargain..., not for the purpose of establishing a fictitious higher price on which a deceptive comparison might...

  12. 16 CFR 233.1 - Former price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.1 Former price comparisons. (a) One of the most commonly used forms of bargain..., not for the purpose of establishing a fictitious higher price on which a deceptive comparison might...

  13. 16 CFR 233.1 - Former price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.1 Former price comparisons. (a) One of the most commonly used forms of bargain..., not for the purpose of establishing a fictitious higher price on which a deceptive comparison might...

  14. Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks.

    PubMed

    Jin, Junghwan; Kim, Jinsoo

    2015-01-01

    Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency.

  15. Research on WNN modeling for gold price forecasting based on improved artificial bee colony algorithm.

    PubMed

    Li, Bai

    2014-01-01

    Gold price forecasting has been a hot issue in economics recently. In this work, wavelet neural network (WNN) combined with a novel artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed for this gold price forecasting issue. In this improved algorithm, the conventional roulette selection strategy is discarded. Besides, the convergence statuses in a previous cycle of iteration are fully utilized as feedback messages to manipulate the searching intensity in a subsequent cycle. Experimental results confirm that this new algorithm converges faster than the conventional ABC when tested on some classical benchmark functions and is effective to improve modeling capacity of WNN regarding the gold price forecasting scheme.

  16. Research on WNN Modeling for Gold Price Forecasting Based on Improved Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Gold price forecasting has been a hot issue in economics recently. In this work, wavelet neural network (WNN) combined with a novel artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed for this gold price forecasting issue. In this improved algorithm, the conventional roulette selection strategy is discarded. Besides, the convergence statuses in a previous cycle of iteration are fully utilized as feedback messages to manipulate the searching intensity in a subsequent cycle. Experimental results confirm that this new algorithm converges faster than the conventional ABC when tested on some classical benchmark functions and is effective to improve modeling capacity of WNN regarding the gold price forecasting scheme. PMID:24744773

  17. 16 CFR 233.5 - Miscellaneous price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Miscellaneous price comparisons. 233.5... DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.5 Miscellaneous price comparisons. The practices covered in the provisions set forth... principles. For example, retailers should not advertise a retail price as a “wholesale” price. They should...

  18. Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    E, Jianwei; Bao, Yanling; Ye, Jimin

    2017-10-01

    As one of the most vital energy resources in the world, crude oil plays a significant role in international economic market. The fluctuation of crude oil price has attracted academic and commercial attention. There exist many methods in forecasting the trend of crude oil price. However, traditional models failed in predicting accurately. Based on this, a hybrid method will be proposed in this paper, which combines variational mode decomposition (VMD), independent component analysis (ICA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), called VMD-ICA-ARIMA. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence factors of crude oil price and predict the future crude oil price. Major steps can be concluded as follows: Firstly, applying the VMD model on the original signal (crude oil price), the modes function can be decomposed adaptively. Secondly, independent components are separated by the ICA, and how the independent components affect the crude oil price is analyzed. Finally, forecasting the price of crude oil price by the ARIMA model, the forecasting trend demonstrates that crude oil price declines periodically. Comparing with benchmark ARIMA and EEMD-ICA-ARIMA, VMD-ICA-ARIMA can forecast the crude oil price more accurately.

  19. Thermal conditioning of the AEOS Telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roberts, Lewis C., Jr.; Figgis, Peter D.

    2003-02-01

    The AEOS telescope facility was designed for high angular resolution imagery. Part of that design is the inclusion of several air handling systems to maximize dome seeing. Four air conditioning units chill the telescope and dome air to the predicted nighttime temperature. There is a mirror purge system, which prevents moisture from condensing on the mirror by blowing desiccated air into the mirror cell. A laminar air system counteracts the seeing degradation effects of a warm mirror by blowing air across the face of the primary. An hour before sunset the dome is partially opened and outside air is pulled through the telescope truss structure in an effort to remove any thermal differences caused by incorrect cooling. Finally a fan pulls air through the coude' tube in order to remove rising air cells. We present details of each system and the beginnings of our experiments to determine their efficacy. Finally, lessons learned from the systems on the AEOS telescope are presented.

  20. High-resolution imaging with AEOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patience, Jennifer; Macintosh, Bruce A.; Max, Claire E.

    2001-12-01

    The U.S. Air Force Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) which includes a 941 actuator adaptive optics system on a 3.7 m telescope has recently been made available for astronomical programs. Operating at a wavelength of 750 nm, the diffraction-limited angular resolution of the system is 0'.04; currently, the magnitude limit is V approximately 7 mag. At the distances of nearby open clusters, diffraction- limited images should resolve companions with separations as small as 4 - 6 AU - comparable to the Sun-Jupiter distance. The ability to study such close separations is critical, since most companions are expected to have separations in the few AU to tens of AU range. With the exceptional angular resolution of the current AEOS setup, but restricted target magnitude range, we are conducting a companion search of a large, well-defined sample of bright early-type stars in nearby open clusters and in the field. Our data set will both characterize this relatively new adaptive optics system and answer questions in binary star formation and stellar X- ray activity. We will discuss our experience using AEOS, the data analysis involved, and our initial results.

  1. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... 19 Customs Duties 3 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Comparison of normal value with export price... Secretary normally will average prices used as the basis for normal value and, in an investigation,...

  2. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  3. [Discussion of price forecasting of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma based on ARIMA model].

    PubMed

    Wang, Nuo; Cheng, Meng; Zang, Chun-Xin; Yang, Guang

    2016-04-01

    Based on the analysis of price fluctuations on Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma, this paper takes advantage of the price data of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma which specification is 120 from January 2004 to August 2015, using autoregressive integrated moving average model [ARIMA (p, d, q)] forecasting the price of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma from September 2015 to August 2016. In the process of determining the form of model, the stability test used to determine the model of p, and the autocorrelation function and particles autocorrelation functions to identify the p and q of model. According to test the model, the forecast minimum error model was identified. In this paper, ARIMA (2,1,3) model was used to predict next year's price of Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma, for providing information for Notoginseng Radix et Rhizoma growers, pharmaceutical companies. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

  4. Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Wavelets, Time Series, and Artificial Neural Networks

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Following the unconventional gas revolution, the forecasting of natural gas prices has become increasingly important because the association of these prices with those of crude oil has weakened. With this as motivation, we propose some modified hybrid models in which various combinations of the wavelet approximation, detail components, autoregressive integrated moving average, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, and artificial neural network models are employed to predict natural gas prices. We also emphasize the boundary problem in wavelet decomposition, and compare results that consider the boundary problem case with those that do not. The empirical results show that our suggested approach can handle the boundary problem, such that it facilitates the extraction of the appropriate forecasting results. The performance of the wavelet-hybrid approach was superior in all cases, whereas the application of detail components in the forecasting was only able to yield a small improvement in forecasting performance. Therefore, forecasting with only an approximation component would be acceptable, in consideration of forecasting efficiency. PMID:26539722

  5. 16 CFR 233.5 - Miscellaneous price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Miscellaneous price comparisons. 233.5 Section 233.5 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.5 Miscellaneous price comparisons. The practices covered in the provisions set...

  6. 16 CFR 233.5 - Miscellaneous price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Miscellaneous price comparisons. 233.5 Section 233.5 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.5 Miscellaneous price comparisons. The practices covered in the provisions set...

  7. 16 CFR 233.5 - Miscellaneous price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Miscellaneous price comparisons. 233.5 Section 233.5 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.5 Miscellaneous price comparisons. The practices covered in the provisions set...

  8. 16 CFR 233.5 - Miscellaneous price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Miscellaneous price comparisons. 233.5 Section 233.5 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION GUIDES AND TRADE PRACTICE RULES GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.5 Miscellaneous price comparisons. The practices covered in the provisions set forth...

  9. A Toolbox for Teaching Price Comparison to Students with Disabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weng, Pei-Lin; Bouck, Emily C.

    2017-01-01

    Price comparison is a functional mathematics skill involving purchasing, use of money, and budgeting, with the goal of selecting the best deal based on a person's financial resources (Browder, Spooner, & Trela, 2011). The operational definition of "price comparison" is to compare the magnitudes of the price numbers and then select…

  10. Long-run forecasts of regional energy prices with the Argonne Regional Energy Price Simulator (AREPS)

    SciTech Connect

    South, D.W.; Hanson, D.A.

    1985-01-01

    This paper documents a systematic method to translate national energy price projections by fuel type and sector into regional and state prices. This procedure is accomplished through the Argonne Regional Energy Price Simulator (AREPS). The paper delineates the methodological premise underlying AREPS, together with its algorithm. To illustrate the capabilities and results of AREPS, a set of sample projections are presented. Industrial fuel price projections at the federal region level are reported for selected years from 1980 to 2010. Although AREPS was designed and developed for a particular project, it is a very flexible and adaptive system for the generation of regional and state fuel prices.

  11. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price Using Machine Learning Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanchymalay, Kasturi; Salim, N.; Sukprasert, Anupong; Krishnan, Ramesh; Raba'ah Hashim, Ummi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to study the correlation between crude palm oil (CPO) price, selected vegetable oil prices (such as soybean oil, coconut oil, and olive oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil), crude oil and the monthly exchange rate. Comparative analysis was then performed on CPO price forecasting results using the machine learning techniques. Monthly CPO prices, selected vegetable oil prices, crude oil prices and monthly exchange rate data from January 1987 to February 2017 were utilized. Preliminary analysis showed a positive and high correlation between the CPO price and soy bean oil price and also between CPO price and crude oil price. Experiments were conducted using multi-layer perception, support vector regression and Holt Winter exponential smoothing techniques. The results were assessed by using criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), means absolute error (MAE), means absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Direction of accuracy (DA). Among these three techniques, support vector regression(SVR) with Sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm showed relatively better results compared to multi-layer perceptron and Holt Winters exponential smoothing method.

  12. Forecasting Jet Fuel Prices Using Artificial Neural Networks.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-03-01

    Artificial neural networks provide a new approach to commodity forecasting that does not require algorithm or rule development. Neural networks have...NeuralWare, more people can take advantage of the power of artificial neural networks . This thesis provides an introduction to neural networks, and reviews

  13. 19 CFR 351.414 - Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed export price).

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... (constructed export price). 351.414 Section 351.414 Customs Duties INTERNATIONAL TRADE ADMINISTRATION... Price, Fair Value, and Normal Value § 351.414 Comparison of normal value with export price (constructed... characteristics and that is sold to the United States at the same level of trade. In identifying sales to be...

  14. 16 CFR 233.2 - Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Retail price comparisons; comparable value... GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.2 Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons. (a... higher price must be based upon fact, and not be fictitious or misleading. Whenever an...

  15. ARIMA Model Estimated by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Consumer Price Index Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Hongjie; Zhao, Weigang

    This paper presents an ARIMA model which uses particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO) for model estimation. Because the traditional estimation method is complex and may obtain very bad results, PSO which can be implemented with ease and has a powerful optimizing performance is employed to optimize the coefficients of ARIMA. In recent years, inflation and deflation plague the world moreover the consumer price index (CPI) which is a measure of the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households is usually observed as an important indicator of the level of inflation, so the forecast of CPI has been focused on by both scientific community and relevant authorities. Furthermore, taking the forecast of CPI as a case, we illustrate the improvement of accuracy and efficiency of the new method and the result shows it is predominant in forecasting.

  16. Forecasting of Market Clearing Price by Using GA Based Neural Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Bo; Chen, Yun-Ping; Zhao, Zun-Lian; Han, Qi-Ye

    Forecasting of Market Clearing Price (MCP) is important to economic benefits of electricity market participants. To accurately forecast MCP, a novel two-stage GA-based neural network model (GA-NN) is proposed. In the first stage, GA chromosome is designed into two parts: boolean coding part for neural network topology and real coding part for connection weights. By hybrid genetic operation of selection, crossover and mutation under the criterion of error minimization between the actual output and the desired output, optimal architecture of neural network is obtained. In the second stage, gradient learning algorithm with momentum rate is imposed on neural network with optimal architecture. After learning process, optimal connection weights are obtained. The proposed model is tested on MCP forecasting in California electricity market. The test results show that GA-NN has self-adaptive ability in its topology and connection weights and can obtain more accurate MCP forecasting values than BP neural network.

  17. Black-Scholes finite difference modeling in forecasting of call warrant prices in Bursa Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mansor, Nur Jariah; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2014-07-01

    Call warrant is a type of structured warrant in Bursa Malaysia. It gives the holder the right to buy the underlying share at a specified price within a limited period of time. The issuer of the structured warrants usually uses European style to exercise the call warrant on the maturity date. Warrant is very similar to an option. Usually, practitioners of the financial field use Black-Scholes model to value the option. The Black-Scholes equation is hard to solve analytically. Therefore the finite difference approach is applied to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. The central in time and central in space scheme is produced to approximate the value of the call warrant prices. It allows the warrant holder to forecast the value of the call warrant prices before the expiry date.

  18. 16 CFR 233.2 - Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.2 Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons. (a... here would be deceptive, since the price charged by the small suburban outlets would have no real... similar pen, for that price, this advertisement would be deceptive....

  19. 16 CFR 233.2 - Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.2 Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons. (a... here would be deceptive, since the price charged by the small suburban outlets would have no real... similar pen, for that price, this advertisement would be deceptive....

  20. 16 CFR 233.2 - Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.2 Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons. (a... here would be deceptive, since the price charged by the small suburban outlets would have no real... similar pen, for that price, this advertisement would be deceptive....

  1. Forecasting jet fuel prices using artificial neural networks. Master`s thesis

    SciTech Connect

    Kasprzak, M.A.

    1995-03-01

    Artificial neural networks provide a new approach to commodity forecasting that does not require algorithm or rule development. Neural networks have been deemed successful in applications involving optimization, classification, identification, pattern recognition and time series forecasting. With the advent of user friendly, commercially available software packages that work in a spreadsheet environment, such as Neural Works Predict by NeuralWare, more people can take advantage of the power of artificial neural networks. This thesis provides an introduction to neural networks, and reviews two recent studies of forecasting commodities prices. This study also develops a neural network model using Neural Works Predict that forecasts jet fuel prices for the Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC). In addition, the results developed are compared to the output of an econometric regression model, specifically, the Department of Energy`s Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STWS) model. The Predict artificial neural network model produced more accurate results and reduced the contribution of outliers more effectively than the STIFS model, thus producing a more robust model.

  2. 16 CFR 233.2 - Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Retail price comparisons; comparable value... GUIDES AGAINST DECEPTIVE PRICING § 233.2 Retail price comparisons; comparable value comparisons. (a.... Expressed another way, if a number of the principal retail outlets in the area are regularly selling Brand X...

  3. Factors influencing the difference between forecasted and actual drug sales volumes under the price-volume agreement in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Park, Sun-Young; Han, Euna; Kim, Jini; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2016-08-01

    This study analyzed factors contributing to increases in the actual sales volumes relative to forecasted volumes of drugs under price-volume agreement (PVA) policy in South Korea. Sales volumes of newly listed drugs on the national formulary are monitored under PVA policy. When actual sales volume exceeds the pre-agreed forecasted volume by 30% or more, the drug is subject to price-reduction. Logistic regression assessed the factors related to whether drugs were the PVA price-reduction drugs. A generalized linear model with gamma distribution and log-link assessed the factors influencing the increase in actual volumes compared to forecasted volume in the PVA price-reduction drugs. Of 186 PVA monitored drugs, 34.9% were price-reduction drugs. Drugs marketed by pharmaceutical companies with previous-occupation in the therapeutic markets were more likely to be PVA price-reduction drugs than drugs marketed by firms with no previous-occupation. Drugs of multinational pharmaceutical companies were more likely to be PVA price-reduction drugs than those of domestic companies. Having more alternative existing drugs was significantly associated with higher odds of being PVA price-reduction drugs. Among the PVA price-reduction drugs, the increasing rate of actual volume compared to forecasted volume was significantly higher in drugs with clinical usefulness. By focusing the negotiation efforts on those target drugs, PVA policy can be administered more efficiently with the improved predictability of the drug sales volumes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cancer Drugs: An International Comparison of Postlicensing Price Inflation.

    PubMed

    Savage, Philip; Mahmoud, Sarah; Patel, Yogin; Kantarjian, Hagop

    2017-06-01

    The cost of cancer drugs forms a rising proportion of health care budgets worldwide. A number of studies have examined international comparisons of initial cost, but there is little work on postlicensing price increases. To examine this, we compared cancer drug prices at initial sale and subsequent price inflation in the United States and United Kingdom and also reviewed relevant price control mechanisms. The 10 top-selling cancer drugs were selected, and their prices at initial launch and in 2015 were compared. Standard nondiscounted prices were obtained from the relevant annual copies of the RED BOOK and the British National Formulary. At initial marketing, prices were on average 42% higher in the United States than in the United Kingdom. After licensing in the United States, all 10 drugs had price rises averaging an overall annual 8.8% (range, 1.4% to 24.1%) increase. In comparison, in the United Kingdom, six drugs had unchanged prices, two had decreased prices, and two had modest price increases. The overall annual increase in the United Kingdom was 0.24%. Cancer drug prices are rising substantially, both at their initial marketing price and, in the United States, at postlicensing prices. In the United Kingdom, the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme, an agreement between the government and the pharmaceutical industry, controls health care costs while allowing a return on investment and funds for research. The increasing costs of cancer drugs are approaching the limits of sustainability, and a similar government-industry agreement may allow stability for both health care provision and the pharmaceutical industry in the United States.

  5. Impact of External Price Referencing on Medicine Prices – A Price Comparison Among 14 European Countries

    PubMed Central

    Leopold, Christine; Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje Katja; Seyfang, Leonhard; Vogler, Sabine; de Joncheere, Kees; Laing, Richard Ogilvie; Leufkens, Hubert

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study aims to examine the impact of external price referencing (EPR) on on-patent medicine prices, adjusting for other factors that may affect price levels such as sales volume, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, total pharmaceutical expenditure (TPE), and size of the pharmaceutical industry. Methods: Price data of 14 on-patent products, in 14 European countries in 2007 and 2008 were obtained from the Pharmaceutical Price Information Service of the Austrian Health Institute. Based on the unit ex-factory prices in EURO, scaled ranks per country and per product were calculated. For the regression analysis the scaled ranks per country and product were weighted; each country had the same sum of weights but within a country the weights were proportional to its sales volume in the year (data obtained from IMS Health). Taking the scaled ranks, several statistical analyses were performed by using the program “R”, including a multiple regression analysis (including variables such as GDP per capita and national industry size). Results: This study showed that on average EPR as a pricing policy leads to lower prices. However, the large variation in price levels among countries using EPR confirmed that the price level is not only driven by EPR. The unadjusted linear regression model confirms that applying EPR in a country is associated with a lower scaled weighted rank (p=0.002). This interaction persisted after inclusion of total pharmaceutical expenditure per capita and GDP per capita in the final model. Conclusions: The study showed that for patented products, prices are in general lower in case the country applied EPR. Nevertheless substantial price differences among countries that apply EPR could be identified. Possible explanations could be found through a correlation between pharmaceutical industry and the scaled price ranks. In conclusion, we found that implementing external reference pricing could lead to lower prices. PMID

  6. Price comparisons on the internet based on computational intelligence.

    PubMed

    Kim, Jun Woo; Ha, Sung Ho

    2014-01-01

    Information-intensive Web services such as price comparison sites have recently been gaining popularity. However, most users including novice shoppers have difficulty in browsing such sites because of the massive amount of information gathered and the uncertainty surrounding Web environments. Even conventional price comparison sites face various problems, which suggests the necessity of a new approach to address these problems. Therefore, for this study, an intelligent product search system was developed that enables price comparisons for online shoppers in a more effective manner. In particular, the developed system adopts linguistic price ratings based on fuzzy logic to accommodate user-defined price ranges, and personalizes product recommendations based on linguistic product clusters, which help online shoppers find desired items in a convenient manner.

  7. Price Comparisons on the Internet Based on Computational Intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Jun Woo; Ha, Sung Ho

    2014-01-01

    Information-intensive Web services such as price comparison sites have recently been gaining popularity. However, most users including novice shoppers have difficulty in browsing such sites because of the massive amount of information gathered and the uncertainty surrounding Web environments. Even conventional price comparison sites face various problems, which suggests the necessity of a new approach to address these problems. Therefore, for this study, an intelligent product search system was developed that enables price comparisons for online shoppers in a more effective manner. In particular, the developed system adopts linguistic price ratings based on fuzzy logic to accommodate user-defined price ranges, and personalizes product recommendations based on linguistic product clusters, which help online shoppers find desired items in a convenient manner. PMID:25268901

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.; Holttinen, H.; Sillanpaa, S.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Scharff, R.; Soder, L.; Larsen, X. G.; Giebel, G.; Flynn, D.; Dobschinski, J.

    2012-09-01

    Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

  9. ℓ p-Norm Multikernel Learning Approach for Stock Market Price Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓp-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ1-norm multiple support vector regression model. PMID:23365561

  10. ℓ(p)-Norm multikernel learning approach for stock market price forecasting.

    PubMed

    Shao, Xigao; Wu, Kun; Liao, Bifeng

    2012-01-01

    Linear multiple kernel learning model has been used for predicting financial time series. However, ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression is rarely observed to outperform trivial baselines in practical applications. To allow for robust kernel mixtures that generalize well, we adopt ℓ(p)-norm multiple kernel support vector regression (1 ≤ p < ∞) as a stock price prediction model. The optimization problem is decomposed into smaller subproblems, and the interleaved optimization strategy is employed to solve the regression model. The model is evaluated on forecasting the daily stock closing prices of Shanghai Stock Index in China. Experimental results show that our proposed model performs better than ℓ(1)-norm multiple support vector regression model.

  11. Modeling and forecasting foreign exchange daily closing prices with normal inverse Gaussian

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teneng, Dean

    2013-09-01

    We fit the normal inverse Gaussian(NIG) distribution to foreign exchange closing prices using the open software package R and select best models by Käärik and Umbleja (2011) proposed strategy. We observe that daily closing prices (12/04/2008 - 07/08/2012) of CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/USD, QAR/CHF, QAR/EUR, SAR/CHF, SAR/EUR, TND/CHF and TND/EUR are excellent fits while EGP/EUR and EUR/GBP are good fits with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value of 0.062 and 0.08 respectively. It was impossible to estimate normal inverse Gaussian parameters (by maximum likelihood; computational problem) for JPY/CHF but CHF/JPY was an excellent fit. Thus, while the stochastic properties of an exchange rate can be completely modeled with a probability distribution in one direction, it may be impossible the other way around. We also demonstrate that foreign exchange closing prices can be forecasted with the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) Lévy process, both in cases where the daily closing prices can and cannot be modeled by NIG distribution.

  12. Forecasting of palm oil price in Malaysia using linear and nonlinear methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nor, Abu Hassan Shaari Md; Sarmidi, Tamat; Hosseinidoust, Ehsan

    2014-09-01

    The first question that comes to the mind is: "How can we predict the palm oil price accurately?" This question is the authorities, policy makers and economist's question for a long period of time. The first reason is that in the recent years Malaysia showed a comparative advantage in palm oil production and has become top producer and exporter in the world. Secondly, palm oil price plays significant role in government budget and represents important source of income for Malaysia, which potentially can influence the magnitude of monetary policies and eventually have an impact on inflation. Thirdly, knowledge on the future trends would be helpful in the planning and decision making procedures and will generate precise fiscal and monetary policy. Daily data on palm oil prices along with the ARIMA models, neural networks and fuzzy logic systems are employed in this paper. Empirical findings indicate that the dynamic neural network of NARX and the hybrid system of ANFIS provide higher accuracy than the ARIMA and static neural network for forecasting the palm oil price in Malaysia.

  13. Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, B. M.; Florita, A.; Orwig, K.; Lew, D.; Milligan, M.

    2012-07-01

    The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influenced by weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale is critical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.

  14. Day-Ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using a Novel Morphological Component Analysis Based Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Qing; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-01-01

    As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations. PMID:25061614

  15. Day-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a novel morphological component analysis based model.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Qing; He, Kaijian; Zou, Yingchao; Lai, Kin Keung

    2014-01-01

    As a typical nonlinear and dynamic system, the crude oil price movement is difficult to predict and its accurate forecasting remains the subject of intense research activity. Recent empirical evidence suggests that the multiscale data characteristics in the price movement are another important stylized fact. The incorporation of mixture of data characteristics in the time scale domain during the modelling process can lead to significant performance improvement. This paper proposes a novel morphological component analysis based hybrid methodology for modeling the multiscale heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in two representative benchmark crude oil markets reveal the existence of multiscale heterogeneous microdata structure. The significant performance improvement of the proposed algorithm incorporating the heterogeneous data characteristics, against benchmark random walk, ARMA, and SVR models, is also attributed to the innovative methodology proposed to incorporate this important stylized fact during the modelling process. Meanwhile, work in this paper offers additional insights into the heterogeneous market microstructure with economic viable interpretations.

  16. Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

    PubMed

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

  17. Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

    2014-01-01

    Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

  18. Apples with apples: accounting for fuel price risk in comparisons of gas-fired and renewable generation

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2003-12-18

    For better or worse, natural gas has become the fuel of choice for new power plants being built across the United States. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), natural gas combined-cycle and combustion turbine power plants accounted for 96% of the total generating capacity added in the US between 1999 and 2002--138 GW out of a total of 144 GW. Looking ahead, the EIA expects that gas-fired technology will account for 61% of the 355 GW new generating capacity projected to come on-line in the US up to 2025, increasing the nationwide market share of gas-fired generation from 18% in 2002 to 22% in 2025. While the data are specific to the US, natural gas-fired generation is making similar advances in other countries as well. Regardless of the explanation for (or interpretation of) the empirical findings, however, the basic implications remain the same: one should not blindly rely on gas price forecasts when comparing fixed-price renewable with variable-price gas-fired generation contracts. If there is a cost to hedging, gas price forecasts do not capture and account for it. Alternatively, if the forecasts are at risk of being biased or out of tune with the market, then one certainly would not want to use them as the basis for resource comparisons or investment decisions if a more certain source of data (forwards) existed. Accordingly, assuming that long-term price stability is valued, the most appropriate way to compare the levelized cost of these resources in both cases would be to use forward natural gas price data--i.e. prices that can be locked in to create price certainty--as opposed to uncertain natural gas price forecasts. This article suggests that had utilities and analysts in the US done so over the sample period from November 2000 to November 2003, they would have found gas-fired generation to be at least 0.3-0.6 cents/kWh more expensive (on a levelized cost basis) than otherwise thought. With some renewable resources, in particular wind

  19. Coronagraphy with the AEOS High Order Adaptive Optics System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lloyd, J. P.; Graham, J. R.; Kalas, P.; Oppenheimer, B. R.; Sivaramakrishnan, A.; Makidon, R. B.; Macintosh, B. A.; Max, C. E.; Baudoz, P.; Kuhn, J. R.; Potter, D.

    2001-05-01

    Adaptive Optics has recently become a widely used technique to acquire sensitive, diffraction limited images in the near infrared with large ground based telescopes. Most astronomical targets are faint; driving astronomical AO systems towards large subapertures; resulting in a compromise between guide star brightness, observing wavelength, resolution and Strehl ratio. Space surveilance systems have recently been developed that exploit high order adaptive optics systems to take diffraction limited images in visible light on 4 meter class telescopes on bright (V<8) targets. There is, however, a particular niche that can be exploited by turning these visible light space surveillance systems to astronomical use at infrared wavelengths. At the longer wavelengths, the strehl ratio rises dramatically, thus placing more light into the diffracted Airy pattern at the expense of the atmospheric halo. A coronagraph can be used to suppress the diffracted light, and observe faint companions and debris disks around nearby, bright stars. Observations of these very high contrast objects benefit greatly from much higher order adaptive optics systems than are presently available to the astronomical commnunity. The National Science Foundation and Air Force Office of Scientific Research is sponsoring a program to conduct astronomical observations at the AEOS facility. We are presently developing an astronomical coronagraph to be deployed at the Air Force AEOS facility. We describe the coronagraph, and discuss the advantages and limitations of ground based high order AO for high contrast imaging.

  20. Neural network based load and price forecasting and confidence interval estimation in deregulated power markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Li

    With the deregulation of the electric power market in New England, an independent system operator (ISO) has been separated from the New England Power Pool (NEPOOL). The ISO provides a regional spot market, with bids on various electricity-related products and services submitted by utilities and independent power producers. A utility can bid on the spot market and buy or sell electricity via bilateral transactions. Good estimation of market clearing prices (MCP) will help utilities and independent power producers determine bidding and transaction strategies with low risks, and this is crucial for utilities to compete in the deregulated environment. MCP prediction, however, is difficult since bidding strategies used by participants are complicated and MCP is a non-stationary process. The main objective of this research is to provide efficient short-term load and MCP forecasting and corresponding confidence interval estimation methodologies. In this research, the complexity of load and MCP with other factors is investigated, and neural networks are used to model the complex relationship between input and output. With improved learning algorithm and on-line update features for load forecasting, a neural network based load forecaster was developed, and has been in daily industry use since summer 1998 with good performance. MCP is volatile because of the complexity of market behaviors. In practice, neural network based MCP predictors usually have a cascaded structure, as several key input factors need to be estimated first. In this research, the uncertainties involved in a cascaded neural network structure for MCP prediction are analyzed, and prediction distribution under the Bayesian framework is developed. A fast algorithm to evaluate the confidence intervals by using the memoryless Quasi-Newton method is also developed. The traditional back-propagation algorithm for neural network learning needs to be improved since MCP is a non-stationary process. The extended Kalman

  1. Moving into the Light: The AEOS Telescope in the Daytime Operating Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayo, J.

    Abstract for Coming into the Light: The AEOS Telescope in the Daytime Operating Environment” Interest in daylight operation for the AEOS 3.67-m Telescope first surfaced during the preparation of the AEOS specification documentation in 1991. The author and Lt Rich Elder prepared, edited and combined requirements inputs from AFRL technical staff to create the final RFP document. In this released specification, AEOS daylight performance was limited to best effort, although provisions for adding secondary mirror sky light baffling were to be provided. In 1993, during the AEOS construction phase, AFRL requested that the author prepare a report on special considerations for operating AEOS in the solar illuminated daytime environment. This report was published and briefed to AFRL and Space Command at that time. Interest in this topic at AMOS was rekindled in 2007 by Dr Joe Janni and Lt Col Scott Hunt. The author updated his 1993 report and in June 2007 presented AEOS 1993 Daylight Operation Study Revisited” at AMOS. Subsequently, Dr Stacie Williams spearheaded additional work in this critical technical area. Recent efforts at Tau Technologies LLC have focused on external AEOS telescope baffling and shielding options assessment, solar irradiation effects on optical components, especially the primary mirror, and on modeling the solar illumination on the entire telescope during daylight operation. Solid Works and Illustrator simulation models have been developed and exercised.

  2. Effects of the uncertainty of energy price and water availability forecasts on the operation of Alpine hydropower reservoir systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, D.; Castelletti, A.; Burlando, P.

    2016-12-01

    European energy markets have experienced dramatic changes in the last years because of the massive introduction of Variable Renewable Sources (VRSs), such as wind and solar power sources, in the generation portfolios in many countries. VRSs i) are intermittent, i.e., their production is highly variable and only partially predictable, ii) are characterized by no correlation between production and demand, iii) have negligible costs of production, and iv) have been largely subsidized. These features result in lower energy prices, but, at the same time, in increased price volatility, and in network stability issues, which pose a threat to traditional power sources because of smaller incomes and higher maintenance costs associated to a more flexible operation of power systems. Storage hydropower systems play an important role in compensating production peaks, both in term of excess and shortage of energy. Traditionally, most of the research effort in hydropower reservoir operation has focused on modeling and forecasting reservoir inflow as well as designing reservoir operation accordingly. Nowadays, price variability may be the largest source of uncertainty in the context of hydropower systems, especially when considering medium-to-large reservoirs, whose storage can easily buffer small inflow fluctuations. In this work, we compare the effects of uncertain inflow and energy price forecasts on hydropower production and profitability. By adding noise to historic inflow and price trajectories, we build a set of synthetic forecasts corresponding to different levels of predictability and assess their impact on reservoir operating policies and performances. The study is conducted on different hydropower systems, including storage systems and pumped-storage systems, with different characteristics, e.g., different inflow-capacity ratios. The analysis focuses on Alpine hydropower systems where the hydrological regime ranges from purely ice and snow-melt dominated to mixed snow

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement: Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

  5. Determining the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes of PFI data in central region Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmad Kamaruddin, Saadi Bin; Md Ghani, Nor Azura; Mohamed Ramli, Norazan

    2013-04-01

    The concept of Private Financial Initiative (PFI) has been implemented by many developed countries as an innovative way for the governments to improve future public service delivery and infrastructure procurement. However, the idea is just about to germinate in Malaysia and its success is still vague. The major phase that needs to be given main attention in this agenda is value for money whereby optimum efficiency and effectiveness of each expense is attained. Therefore, at the early stage of this study, estimating unitary charges or materials price indexes in each region in Malaysia was the key objective. This particular study aims to discover the best forecasting method to estimate unitary charges price indexes in construction industry by different regions in the central region of Peninsular Malaysia (Selangor, Federal Territory of Kuala Lumpur, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka). The unitary charges indexes data used were from year 2002 to 2011 monthly data of different states in the central region Peninsular Malaysia, comprising price indexes of aggregate, sand, steel reinforcement, ready mix concrete, bricks and partition, roof material, floor and wall finishes, ceiling, plumbing materials, sanitary fittings, paint, glass, steel and metal sections, timber and plywood. At the end of the study, it was found that Backpropagation Neural Network with linear transfer function produced the most accurate and reliable results for estimating unitary charges price indexes in every states in central region Peninsular Malaysia based on the Root Mean Squared Errors, where the values for both estimation and evaluation sets were approximately zero and highly significant at p < 0.01. Therefore, artificial neural network is sufficient to forecast construction materials price indexes in Malaysia. The estimated price indexes of construction materials will contribute significantly to the value for money of PFI as well as towards Malaysian economical growth.

  6. Limits on Lyot coronagraphy with AEOS adaptive optics telescope

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivaramakrishnan, A.; Makidon, R. B.; Lloyd, J. P.; Oppenheimer, B. R.; Graham, J. R.; Kalas, P. G.; Macintosh, B. A.; Max, C. E.; Baudoz, P.; Kuhn, J.; Potter, D.

    2001-05-01

    The 3.6m Air Force Electo-Optical System telescope is the most advanced adaptive optics (AO) system available to the astronomical community. Its 941-channel AO system feeds several stable instrument platforms at a very slow Cassegrain focus. Its small secondary obscuration makes it ideal for AO coronagraphy. We present estimates of current and theoretical limits on dynamic range using a diffraction-limited Lyot coronagraph optimized for the 3.6m AEOS telescope. We incorporate both the effects of imperfect AO correction of the wavefront and telescope guiding errors in our simulations. We calculate limits on faint companion detection (in the H-band) for this system at separations between 0.36 and 1.3 arcseconds.

  7. 10 CFR Appendix II to Part 504 - Fuel Price Computation

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... provide the procedure to: (1) Calculate fuel price and inflation indices; (2) account for projected real... example fuel price and inflation indices based on the latest data appearing in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The fuel price and inflation indices will change yearly with...

  8. Forecasting Price Increase Needs for Library Materials: The University of California Experience.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Dennis

    1984-01-01

    Examines steps taken by the University of California to establish an adequate base library book budget and to measure price increase needs to maintain budgeted acquisition rates. The Voigt/Susskind Acquisitions Model, securing adequate funding for price increase needs, and the university's price increase justification are highlighted. (EJS)

  9. Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact (FSOI) Inter-comparison Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahajan, R.; Auligne, T.; Gelaro, R.; Langland, R.; Groff, D. N.; Hotta, D.

    2016-12-01

    Forecast Sensitivity and Observation Impact (FSOI) techniques provide a practical means to estimate the forecast impact of all assimilated observations for NWP systems. In this presentation, we describe direct comparisons of FSOI quantities between different NWP systems. A common "baseline" set of FSOI experimental parameters are applied for the time period December-February (DJF) 2014/2015. An adjoint-based FSOI approach (Langland and Baker, 2004) is applied for the NWP systems at NASA/GMAO, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), the UK Met Office (UKMet); where as an ensemble-based FSOI approach (Kalnay et al., 2012) is applied at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) applies both the adjoint-based and ensemble-based FSOI capabilities, enabling a direct comparison between the two techniques. Given the aforementioned experiment, we plan to describe the differences in aggregated FSOI quantities between NWP systems for the relevant observing systems. Additionally, NWP system inter-comparisons of FSOI quantities for common observation subsets within the 3-month period will be presented. The comparisons of observation subsets will provide insight as to the extent to which the aggregate results are representative in both space and time.

  10. A Comparison Study of Two Numerical Tsunami Forecasting Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenslade, Diana J. M.; Titov, Vasily V.

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents a comparison of two tsunami forecasting systems: the NOAA/PMEL system (SIFT) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology system (T1). Both of these systems are based on a tsunami scenario database and both use the same numerical model. However, there are some major differences in the way in which the scenarios are constructed and in the implementation of the systems. Two tsunami events are considered here: Tonga 2006 and Sumatra 2007. The results show that there are some differences in the distribution of maximum wave amplitude, particularly for the Tonga event, however both systems compare well to the available tsunameter observations. To assess differences in the forecasts for coastal amplitude predictions, the offshore forecast results from both systems were used as boundary conditions for a high-resolution model for Hilo, Hawaii. The minor differences seen between the two systems in deep water become considerably smaller at the tide gauge and both systems compare very well with the observations.

  11. World oil market outlook: recent history and forecasts of world oil prices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-08-01

    Recent world oil price trends and pricing behavior by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are examined. An outlook for consumption, production and prices in the world oil market, both for the short-term horizon through 1982 and for the midterm period from 1985 through 1995 is presented. A historical review focuses on OPEC activity in the period from January 1980 to May 1981. Several sensitivity analyses and the impact of supply disruptions are used to determine projections. The appendix provides data on world crude oil prices for each of 23 countries for January, May, and June of 1980 and May of 1981. 22 tables, 9 figures.

  12. NewsMarket 2.0: Analysis of News for Stock Price Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazzetti, Alessandro; Mastronardi, Rosangela

    Most of the existing financial research tools use a stock's historical price and technical indicators to predict future price trends without taking into account the impact of web news. The recent explosion of demand for information on financial investment management is driving the search for alternative methods of quantitative data analysis.

  13. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  14. Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandrini, S.; Davò, F.; Sperati, S.; Benini, M.; Delle Monache, L.

    2014-05-01

    Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a

  15. A High Resolution Imaging Survey of A Stars with AEOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patience, J.; Macintosh, B. A.; Max, C. E.

    2001-12-01

    We are conducting a companion search to field and cluster A stars using the U. S. Air Force Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) which includes a 941 actuator adaptive optics system on a 3.7m telescope on Haleakala. Operating at I-band, the diffraction limit of the system is 0".05. This program is designed to address questions in binary star formation and stellar X-ray activity. The first goal of our project is to obtain high resolution adaptive optics observations of a large sample of early-type stars in order to extend the mass range covered by binary star searches and to test binary formation theories. In addition to providing insight into the star formation process, studies of companion stars may also explain the unexpected detection of X-rays from A stars. Since A stars lack both the strong winds of the earlier spectral types and the dynamos of the later spectral types, they are not expected to produce X-rays, however, some A stars are detected as X-ray sources. Typical ROSAT error boxes can include a companion star and the second goal of our program is to investigate the possibility that companions are the true source of X-ray emission from A stars. A stars in the young open clusters Coma Berenices and the Pleiades have been targeted as well as field A stars. Our initial results show a binary fraction for X-ray detected A stars that is twice as high as that of non-detected A stars. We gratefully acknowledge support from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research through grant AFOSR-ISSA-01-NM-016. This work was performed under the auspices of the US Department of Energy by the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract W-7405-ENG-48.

  16. Analysis of alternative-fuel price trajectories

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-12-31

    Findings are presented from a study to (1) acquire, analyze, and report alternative published price projections including both oil- and coal-price trajectories, and to (2) apply the fixed-annuity formula to the updated primary source projections (Energy Information Administration; Data Resources, Inc.; and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc.) and to the newly acquired price projections. This report also encompasses: comparisons of key assumptions underlying the price projections, and a discussion of the applicability of the fixed-annuity formula as used in the alternative-cost calculation. Section II contains graphic presentations of all updated and newly acquired coal and oil price forecasts and the corresponding calculated annuity equivalents, tabulated presentations and discussions of each forecast and underlying assumptions, and a description of how each forecast price series was transformed into input for the present-value formulas. Section III presents the fixed-annuity formula employed and discusses its appropriateness for this application. Section IV discusses the applicability of the net present value approach for comparing alternate-fuel price trajectories. Appendix A contains a listing of contacts as potential sources of price forecasts. Appendix B contains the raw forecast data from each forecast source and the coal and oil price series derived from the raw data which were actually input into the cost calculation procedure. Appendix C contains a description and listing of the computer program developed to implement the cost calculation procedure. Finally, Appendix D contains tabulations and discussions of other alternative world crude price forecasts that were identified, but for which no corresponding coal-price projections were available. (MCW)

  17. Betting on the Future: The authors compare natural gas forecaststo futures buys

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

    2006-01-20

    On December 12, 2005, the reference case projections from Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO 2006) were posted on the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) web site. We at LBNL have in the past compared the EIA's reference case long-term natural gas price forecasts from the AEO series to contemporaneous natural gas prices that can be locked in through the forward market. The goal is better understanding fuel price risk and the role that renewables play in mitigating such risk. As such, we were curious to see how the latest AEO gas price forecast compares to the NYMEX natural gas futures strip. Below is a discussion of our findings. As a refresher, our past work in this area has found that over the past five years, forward natural gas contracts (with prices that can be locked in--.g., gas futures, swaps, and physical supply) have traded at a premium relative to contemporaneous long-term reference case gas price forecasts from the EIA. As such, we have concluded that, over the past five years at least, levelized cost comparisons of fixed-price renewable generation with variable price gas-fired generation have yielded results that are ''biased'' in favor of gas-fired generation, presuming that long-term price stability is valued. In this article we update our past analysis to include the latest long-term gas price forecast from the EIA, as contained in AEO 2006. For the sake of brevity, we do not rehash information (on methodology, potential explanations for the premiums, etc.) contained in our earlier reports on this topic. As was the case in the past five AEO releases (AEO 2001-AEO 2005), we once again find that the AEO 2006 reference case gas price forecast falls well below where NYMEX natural gas futures contracts were trading at the time the EIA finalized its gas price forecast. In fact, the NYMEX-AEO 2006 reference case comparison yields by far the largest premium--$2.3/MMBtu levelized over five years--that we have seen over the last six years. In other words

  18. A comparison of alternative methods for measuring cigarette prices.

    PubMed

    Chaloupka, Frank J; Tauras, John A; Strasser, Julia H; Willis, Gordon; Gibson, James T; Hartman, Anne M

    2015-05-01

    Government agencies, public health organisations and tobacco control researchers rely on accurate estimates of cigarette prices for a variety of purposes. Since the 1950s, the Tax Burden on Tobacco (TBOT) has served as the most widely used source of this price data despite its limitations. This paper compares the prices and collection methods of the TBOT retail-based data and the 2003 and 2006/2007 waves of the population-based Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS). From the TUS-CPS, we constructed multiple state-level measures of cigarette prices, including weighted average prices per pack (based on average prices for single-pack purchases and average prices for carton purchases) and compared these with the weighted average price data reported in the TBOT. We also constructed several measures of tax avoidance from the TUS-CPS self-reported data. For the 2003 wave, the average TUS-CPS price was 71 cents per pack less than the average TBOT price; for the 2006/2007 wave, the difference was 47 cents. TUS-CPS and TBOT prices were also significantly different at the state level. However, these differences varied widely by state due to tax avoidance opportunities, such as cross-border purchasing. The TUS-CPS can be used to construct valid measures of cigarette prices. Unlike the TBOT, the TUS-CPS captures the effect of price-reducing marketing strategies, as well as tax avoidance practices and non-traditional types of purchasing. Thus, self-reported data like TUS-CPS appear to have advantages over TBOT in estimating the 'real' price that smokers face. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  19. D3-2: Forecasting Disease Burden and Health Utilization in Uninsured Populations in California Health Insurance Exchange Pricing Regions

    PubMed Central

    Dinh, Tuan

    2014-01-01

    Background/Aims Starting in January 2014, millions of currently uninsured Californians will be able to purchase health insurance on the California Health Insurance Exchange (HIE). For planning purposes, it is important to estimate disease burden and demands for services in uninsured populations. The Archimedes Model is a trial-validated, clinically detailed simulation model of human physiology, disease progression, and healthcare delivery. The Archimedes Model synthesizes evidence from hundreds of data sources to create virtual patients that are representative of the US population, in terms of demographic distribution, disease progression, clinical outcomes, patient and provider behaviors; office visits and hospital admissions; tests and treatments; care delivery protocols; compliance; and costs. Kaiser Permanente and Archimedes collaborated to develop a capability based on the Archimedes Model to forecast disease burden and healthcare utilization in uninsured populations for each of the 18 California Health Insurance Exchange pricing regions. Methods We used data from 20 diverse California and US surveys and databases as inputs into the Archimedes Model to create realistic individuals that closely match the uninsured populations in each pricing region, with respect to demographics, socioeconomic status, and medical conditions. Within the Archimedes Model, the relationships between biomarkers, medication adherence and usage, disease progression, clinical outcomes, care processes and healthcare utilizations are well-established and carefully validated against many independent datasets. We use the Archimedes Model to combine datasets with overlapping information and to fill in the missing information for uninsured Californians, then forecast the clinical outcomes and health utilizations in the next 10 years for this population as well as the benefits and costs of different prevention and disease management strategies. Results We created 19 datasets that are

  20. An Analysis of Fundamental Waffle Mode in Early AEOS Adaptive Optics Images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Makidon, Russell B.; Sivaramakrishnan, Anand; Perrin, Marshall D.; Roberts, Lewis C., Jr.; Oppenheimer, Ben R.; Soummer, Rémi; Graham, James R.

    2005-08-01

    Adaptive optics (AO) systems have significantly improved astronomical imaging capabilities over the last decade and are revolutionizing the kinds of science possible with 4-5 m class ground-based telescopes. A thorough understanding of AO system performance at the telescope can enable new frontiers of science as observations push AO systems to their performance limits. We look at recent advances with wave-front reconstruction (WFR) on the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) 3.6 m telescope to show how progress made in improving WFR can be measured directly in improved science images. We describe how a ``waffle mode'' wave-front error (which is not sensed by a Fried geometry Shack-Hartmann wave-front sensor) affects the AO point-spread function. We model details of AEOS AO to simulate a PSF that matches the actual AO PSF in the I band and show that while the older observed AEOS PSF contained several times more waffle error than expected, improved WFR techniques noticeably improve AEOS AO performance. We estimate the impact of these improved WFRs on H-band imaging at AEOS, chosen based on the optimization of the Lyot Project near-infrared coronagraph at this bandpass. Based on observations made at the Maui Space Surveillance System, operated by Detachment 15 of the US Air Force Research Laboratory's Directed Energy Directorate.

  1. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.; Gomez-Lazaro, E.; Lovholm, A. L.; Berge, E.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

  2. A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2013-12-18

    This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series, including a truncated-normal distribution model, a state-space based Markov model, a seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, and a stochastic-optimization based model. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets, used for variable generation integration studies. A comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics. This paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

  3. Prices and availability of biopharmaceuticals: an international comparison.

    PubMed

    Danzon, Patricia M; Furukawa, Michael F

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents new evidence on availability, use, and prices of biopharmaceuticals in five major European Union (EU) markets, Canada, Australia, Japan, and Mexico, relative to the United States. Our data set from IMS Health includes all product sales in 2005. Per capita spending on biopharmaceuticals was at least twice as high in the United States as in the other countries. This difference reflects primarily greater availability and use of new, relatively high-price molecules and formulations. Prices for identical formulations are not higher on average in the United States. The broader price indexes, which do not control formulation, are also not higher in the United States, after adjusting for income.

  4. Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2006 - Supplemental Tables - All Tables

    SciTech Connect

    2009-01-18

    Tables describing regional energy consumption and prices by sector; residential, commercial, and industrial demand sector data; transportation demand sector; electricity and renewable fuel; and petroleum, natural gas, and coal data.

  5. Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lee, D.-H.

    2012-01-01

    We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

  6. Study on property and stability mechanism of LAB-AEO-4 system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Kaifei; Ge, Jijiang; Wang, Yang; Zhang, Guicai; Jiang, Ping

    2017-04-01

    The behaviors of binary blending systems of fatty alcohol polyoxyethylene ether (AEO-4) blended with the laurel amide betaine (LAB) was investigated at 80°C,the results indicated that the optimal ratio of the mixed system of LAB-AEO-4 was 5:2. The stability mechanism of LAB-AEO-4 system was analyzed from three aspects of dynamic surface tension,gas permeation rate and surface rheology.The results showed that the tension of mixed system was easier to achieve balance,the constant of gas permeation rate of the mixed system decreased by about 7% and the elastic modulus and dilational modulus increased by about 2 times compared with the single LAB system.

  7. 16 CFR 233.1 - Former price comparisons.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... based on a fictitious former price. John Doe is a retailer of Brand X fountain pens, which cost him $5... subsequently to offer an unusual “bargain”, Doe begins offering Brand X at $10 per pen. He realizes that he will be able to sell no, or very few, pens at this inflated price. But he doesn't care, for...

  8. Study on Comparison of Bidding and Pricing Behavior Distinction between Estimate Methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morimoto, Emi; Namerikawa, Susumu

    The most characteristic trend on bidding and pricing behavior distinction in recent years is the increasing number of bidders just above the criteria for low-price bidding investigations. The contractor's markup is the difference between the bidding price and the execution price. Therefore, the contractor's markup is the difference between criteria for low-price bidding investigations price and the execution price in the public works bid in Japan. Virtually, bidder's strategies and behavior have been controlled by public engineer's budgets. Estimation and bid are inseparably linked in the Japanese public works procurement system. The trial of the unit price-type estimation method begins in 2004. On another front, accumulated estimation method is one of the general methods in public works. So, there are two types of standard estimation methods in Japan. In this study, we did a statistical analysis on the bid information of civil engineering works for the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation in 2008. It presents several issues that bidding and pricing behavior is related to an estimation method (several estimation methods) for public works bid in Japan. The two types of standard estimation methods produce different results that number of bidders (decide on bid-no bid strategy) and distribution of bid price (decide on mark-up strategy).The comparison on the distribution of bid prices showed that the percentage of the bid concentrated on the criteria for low-price bidding investigations have had a tendency to get higher in the large-sized public works by the unit price-type estimation method, comparing with the accumulated estimation method. On one hand, the number of bidders who bids for public works estimated unit-price tends to increase significantly Public works estimated unit-price is likely to have been one of the factors for the construction companies to decide if they participate in the biddings.

  9. Stock price forecasting for companies listed on Tehran stock exchange using multivariate adaptive regression splines model and semi-parametric splines technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Abbaszadeh, Mohammad Reza; Arashi, Mohammad

    2015-11-01

    One of the most important topics of interest to investors is stock price changes. Investors whose goals are long term are sensitive to stock price and its changes and react to them. In this regard, we used multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model and semi-parametric splines technique for predicting stock price in this study. The MARS model as a nonparametric method is an adaptive method for regression and it fits for problems with high dimensions and several variables. semi-parametric splines technique was used in this study. Smoothing splines is a nonparametric regression method. In this study, we used 40 variables (30 accounting variables and 10 economic variables) for predicting stock price using the MARS model and using semi-parametric splines technique. After investigating the models, we select 4 accounting variables (book value per share, predicted earnings per share, P/E ratio and risk) as influencing variables on predicting stock price using the MARS model. After fitting the semi-parametric splines technique, only 4 accounting variables (dividends, net EPS, EPS Forecast and P/E Ratio) were selected as variables effective in forecasting stock prices.

  10. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

  11. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

    PubMed

    Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-09-26

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

  12. Pricing a Protest: Forecasting the Dynamics of Civil Unrest Activity in Social Media.

    PubMed

    Goode, Brian J; Krishnan, Siddharth; Roan, Michael; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2015-01-01

    Online social media activity can often be a precursor to disruptive events such as protests, strikes, and "occupy" movements. We have observed that such civil unrest can galvanize supporters through social networks and help recruit activists to their cause. Understanding the dynamics of social network cascades and extrapolating their future growth will enable an analyst to detect or forecast major societal events. Existing work has primarily used structural and temporal properties of cascades to predict their future behavior. But factors like societal pressure, alignment of individual interests with broader causes, and perception of expected benefits also affect protest participation in social media. Here we develop an analysis framework using a differential game theoretic approach to characterize the cost of participating in a cascade, and demonstrate how we can combine such cost features with classical properties to forecast the future behavior of cascades. Using data from Twitter, we illustrate the effectiveness of our models on the "Brazilian Spring" and Venezuelan protests that occurred in June 2013 and November 2013, respectively. We demonstrate how our framework captures both qualitative and quantitative aspects of how these uprisings manifest through the lens of tweet volume on Twitter social media.

  13. Pricing a Protest: Forecasting the Dynamics of Civil Unrest Activity in Social Media

    PubMed Central

    Roan, Michael; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2015-01-01

    Online social media activity can often be a precursor to disruptive events such as protests, strikes, and “occupy” movements. We have observed that such civil unrest can galvanize supporters through social networks and help recruit activists to their cause. Understanding the dynamics of social network cascades and extrapolating their future growth will enable an analyst to detect or forecast major societal events. Existing work has primarily used structural and temporal properties of cascades to predict their future behavior. But factors like societal pressure, alignment of individual interests with broader causes, and perception of expected benefits also affect protest participation in social media. Here we develop an analysis framework using a differential game theoretic approach to characterize the cost of participating in a cascade, and demonstrate how we can combine such cost features with classical properties to forecast the future behavior of cascades. Using data from Twitter, we illustrate the effectiveness of our models on the “Brazilian Spring” and Venezuelan protests that occurred in June 2013 and November 2013, respectively. We demonstrate how our framework captures both qualitative and quantitative aspects of how these uprisings manifest through the lens of tweet volume on Twitter social media. PMID:26441072

  14. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  15. Improvements in Satellite-Derived Short-Term Insolation Forecasting: Statistical Comparisons, Challenges for Advection-Based Forecasts, and New Techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, M. A.; Miller, S. D.; Haynes, J. M.; Heidinger, A. K.; Haupt, S. E.; Sengupta, M.

    2014-12-01

    Using satellite observations from GOES-E and GOES-W platforms in concert with GFS-derived cloud-level winds and a standalone radiative transfer model, an advection-derived forecast for surface GHI over the continental United States is described. In particular, comparisons from the satellite-derived forecast are shown against several SURFRAD sites, with particular attention to developing meaningful error metrics to better demonstrate forecast skill and identify sources of error. Challenges in advection-based forecast techniques, such as forecasting near regions of non-wind-driven cloud systems such as coastal marine stratocumulus, are described, as are methods integrated into the forecast algorithm to identify and address these challenges. Improvements in the particular algorithm with respect to comparison against surface observations, integration of the forecast technique into blended forecast products such as those described by the 'Public-Private-Academic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting' project spearheaded by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other observations germane to satellite-derived solar forecasting are covered using nearly two years of operational forecasts as background.

  16. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Treesearch

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  17. Comparison of Artificial Intelligence Techniques for river flow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firat, M.

    2008-01-01

    The use of Artificial Intelligence methods is becoming increasingly common in the modeling and forecasting of hydrological and water resource processes. In this study, applicability of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methods, Generalized Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) and Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNN), and Auto-Regressive (AR) models for forecasting of daily river flow is investigated and Seyhan River and Cine River was chosen as case study area. For the Seyhan River, the forecasting models are established using combinations of antecedent daily river flow records. On the other hand, for the Cine River, daily river flow and rainfall records are used in input layer. For both stations, the data sets are divided into three subsets, training, testing and verification data set. The river flow forecasting models having various input structures are trained and tested to investigate the applicability of ANFIS and ANN and AR methods. The results of all models for both training and testing are evaluated and the best fit input structures and methods for both stations are determined according to criteria of performance evaluation. Moreover the best fit forecasting models are also verified by verification set which was not used in training and testing processes and compared according to criteria. The results demonstrate that ANFIS model is superior to the GRNN and FFNN forecasting models, and ANFIS can be successfully applied and provide high accuracy and reliability for daily river flow forecasting.

  18. A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Ning; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P.; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.

    2013-07-25

    This paper presents four algorithms to generate random forecast error time series. The performance of four algorithms is compared. The error time series are used to create real-time (RT), hour-ahead (HA), and day-ahead (DA) wind and load forecast time series that statistically match historically observed forecasting data sets used in power grid operation to study the net load balancing need in variable generation integration studies. The four algorithms are truncated-normal distribution models, state-space based Markov models, seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, and a stochastic-optimization based approach. The comparison is made using historical DA load forecast and actual load values to generate new sets of DA forecasts with similar stoical forecast error characteristics (i.e., mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation). The results show that all methods generate satisfactory results. One method may preserve one or two required statistical characteristics better the other methods, but may not preserve other statistical characteristics as well compared with the other methods. Because the wind and load forecast error generators are used in wind integration studies to produce wind and load forecasts time series for stochastic planning processes, it is sometimes critical to use multiple methods to generate the error time series to obtain a statistically robust result. Therefore, this paper discusses and compares the capabilities of each algorithm to preserve the characteristics of the historical forecast data sets.

  19. A comparison of pay-as-bid and marginal pricing in electricity markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Yongjun

    This thesis investigates the behaviour of electricity markets under marginal and pay-as-bid pricing. Marginal pricing is believed to yield the maximum social welfare and is currently implemented by most electricity markets. However, in view of recent electricity market failures, pay-as-bid has been extensively discussed as a possible alternative to marginal pricing. In this research, marginal and pay-as-bid pricing have been analyzed in electricity markets with both perfect and imperfect competition. The perfect competition case is studied under both exact and uncertain system marginal cost prediction. The comparison of the two pricing methods is conducted through two steps: (i) identify the best offer strategy of the generating companies (gencos); (ii) analyze the market performance under these optimum genco strategies. The analysis results together with numerical simulations show that pay-as-bid and marginal pricing are equivalent in a perfect market with exact system marginal cost prediction. In perfect markets with uncertain demand prediction, the two pricing methods are also equivalent but in an expected value sense. If we compare from the perspective of second order statistics, all market performance measures exhibit much lower values under pay-as-bid than under marginal pricing. The risk of deviating from the mean is therefore much higher under marginal pricing than under pay-as-bid. In an imperfect competition market with exact demand prediction, the research shows that pay-as-bid pricing yields lower consumer payments and lower genco profits. This research provides quantitative evidence that challenges some common claims about pay-as-bid pricing. One is that under pay-as-bid, participants would soon learn how to offer so as to obtain the same or higher profits than what they would have obtained under marginal pricing. This research however shows that, under pay-as-bid, participants can at best earn the same profit or expected profit as under marginal

  20. Comparison between stochastic and machine learning methods for hydrological multi-step ahead forecasting: All forecasts are wrong!

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2017-04-01

    Machine learning (ML) is considered to be a promising approach to hydrological processes forecasting. We conduct a comparison between several stochastic and ML point estimation methods by performing large-scale computational experiments based on simulations. The purpose is to provide generalized results, while the respective comparisons in the literature are usually based on case studies. The stochastic methods used include simple methods, models from the frequently used families of Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) and Exponential Smoothing models. The ML methods used are Random Forests (RF), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Networks (NN). The comparison refers to the multi-step ahead forecasting properties of the methods. A total of 20 methods are used, among which 9 are the ML methods. 12 simulation experiments are performed, while each of them uses 2 000 simulated time series of 310 observations. The time series are simulated using stochastic processes from the families of ARMA and ARFIMA models. Each time series is split into a fitting (first 300 observations) and a testing set (last 10 observations). The comparative assessment of the methods is based on 18 metrics, that quantify the methods' performance according to several criteria related to the accurate forecasting of the testing set, the capturing of its variation and the correlation between the testing and forecasted values. The most important outcome of this study is that there is not a uniformly better or worse method. However, there are methods that are regularly better or worse than others with respect to specific metrics. It appears that, although a general ranking of the methods is not possible, their classification based on their similar or contrasting performance in the various metrics is possible to some extent. Another important conclusion is that more sophisticated methods do not necessarily provide better forecasts

  1. Vermont stumpage price trends revisited: with comparisons to New Hampshire

    Treesearch

    Paul E. Sendak; Thom J. McEvoy

    2013-01-01

    Our objective was to describe the trends of Vermont stumpage prices for major sawtimber species and products over the approximately last quarter century and propose a likely explanation of changes that we observed. Annual percentage rates of change (APR) were estimated for 10 forest products in Vermont from the third quarter of 1981 (1981Q3) to the first quarter of...

  2. A Statistical Comparison of the Blossom Blight Forecasts of MARYBLYT and Cougarblight with Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Blossom blight forecasting is an important aspect of fire blight, caused by Erwinia amylovora, management for both apple and pear. A comparison of the forecast accuracy of two common fire blight forecasters, MARYBLYT and Cougarblight, was performed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve ...

  3. An ill-posed problem for the Black-Scholes equation for a profitable forecast of prices of stock options on real market data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klibanov, Michael V.; Kuzhuget, Andrey V.; Golubnichiy, Kirill V.

    2016-01-01

    A new empirical mathematical model for the Black-Scholes equation is proposed to forecast option prices. This model includes new interval for the price of the underlying stock, new initial and new boundary conditions. Conventional notions of maturity time and strike prices are not used. The Black-Scholes equation is solved as a parabolic equation with the reversed time, which is an ill-posed problem. Thus, a regularization method is used to solve it. To verify the validity of our model, real market data for 368 randomly selected liquid options are used. A new trading strategy is proposed. Our results indicates that our method is profitable on those options. Furthermore, it is shown that the performance of two simple extrapolation-based techniques is much worse. We conjecture that our method might lead to significant profits of those financial insitutions which trade large amounts of options. We caution, however, that further studies are necessary to verify this conjecture.

  4. Prescription Drugs: Comparison of DOD, Medicaid, and Medicare Part D Retail Reimbursement Prices

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Comparison of DOD, Medicaid, and Medicare Part D Retail Reimbursement Prices Report to the...REPORT DATE JUN 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prescription Drugs : Comparison of DOD, Medicaid...Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate June 2014 PRESCRIPTION DRUGS Comparison of DOD, Medicaid, and Medicare Part D

  5. A comparison of GLAS SAT and NMC high resolution NOSAT forecasts from 19 and 11 February 1976

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Atlas, R.

    1979-01-01

    A subjective comparison of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) and the National Meteorological Center (NMC) high resolution model forecasts is presented. Two cases where NMC's operational model in 1976 had serious difficulties in forecasting for the United States were examined. For each of the cases, the GLAS model forecasts from initial conditions which included satellite sounding data were compared directly to the NMC higher resolution model forecasts, from initial conditions which excluded the satellite data. The comparison showed that the GLAS satellite forecasts significantly improved upon the current NMC operational model's predictions in both cases.

  6. IT Enabled Risk Management for Taxation and Customs: The Case of AEO Assessment in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jianwei; Tan, Yao-Hua; Hulstijn, Joris

    Building collaborative relationships with trusted businesses is a long-term strategy for EU governments. Recently, for the EU Tax and Customs Administration (TCA), the realization of this goal has become more visible with the emerging concept of the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO). Businesses in the member states can apply for the AEO certificate. When it is being granted, simplified control procedures and trade facilitation will be provided by the TCA. A possible “win-win situation” can be achieved, with increased trade efficiency and lowered administrative burden. However, without proper selection of trusted business partners, governments may be worse off due to the adverse selection problem caused by information asymmetry. In this paper, we analyze the cause and effect of the adverse selection in the Government-to-Business relationship building. Further, we show that an IT enabled risk assessment approach can effectively eliminate the G2B information asymmetry and solve the adverse selection problem. The AEO assessment approach of DutchTCA is analysed to give a real life application on how IT is enabling the general risk management approach of the DutchTCA.

  7. A Comparison of Exhaust Condensation Trail Forecast Algorithms at Low Relative Humidity.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walters, Michael K.; Shull, Jeffrey D.; Asbury, Robert P., III

    2000-01-01

    The Schrader and Schumann contrail forecast algorithms and a third algorithm are evaluated under low relative humidity conditions using a dataset of asynoptic atmospheric soundings and 318 coincident ground-based aircraft and contrail observations collected near Dayton, Ohio. Aircraft were positively identified and their flight altitudes were determined using either Federal Aviation Administration flight logs or data collected with the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base air traffic control radar. The sounding data were used with assumed aircraft performance parameters to prepare nowcasts of contrail critical temperatures. The nowcasts were examined subjectively by comparing the distribution of correct and incorrect forecasts as a function of the difference between critical temperature and ambient temperature. Objective evaluation against the contrail observations also was done using several common statistical measures. The third algorithm produced critical temperatures that were systematically too cold, leading to forecasts with low skill in comparison with unbiased random forecasts. The Schumann and Schrader algorithms were skillful in comparison with unbiased random forecasts and performed similarly to one another. The distribution of critical temperature deviations from ambient temperature for incorrect forecasts made with the Schumann and Schrader algorithms (but not the third algorithm) can be explained by potential errors in the input data. All results were statistically significant.

  8. Comparison of Conventional and ANN Models for River Flow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jain, A.; Ganti, R.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. River flow is generally estimated using time series or rainfall-runoff models. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been extensively adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conventional models. In this paper, a comparative study has been carried out for river flow forecasting using the conventional and ANN models. Among the conventional models, multiple linear, and non linear regression, and time series models of auto regressive (AR) type have been developed. Feed forward neural network model structure trained using the back propagation algorithm, a gradient search method, was adopted. The daily river flow data derived from Godavari Basin @ Polavaram, Andhra Pradesh, India have been employed to develop all the models included here. Two inputs, flows at two past time steps, (Q(t-1) and Q(t-2)) were selected using partial auto correlation analysis for forecasting flow at time t, Q(t). A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that the regression and AR models performed comparably, and the ANN model performed the best amongst all the models investigated in this study. It is concluded that ANN model should be adopted in real catchments for hydrological modeling and forecasting.

  9. Toward crustacean without chemicals: a descriptive analysis of consumer response using price comparisons.

    PubMed

    Okpala, Charles Odilichukwu R; Bono, Gioacchino; Pipitone, Vito; Vitale, Sergio; Cannizzaro, Leonardo

    2016-01-01

    To date, there seems to be limited-to-zero emphasis about how consumers perceive crustacean products subject to either chemical and or non-chemical preservative treatments. In addition, studies that investigated price comparisons of crustacean products subject to either chemical or chemical-free preservative methods seem unreported. This study focused on providing some foundational knowledge about how consumers perceive traditionally harvested crustaceans that are either chemical-treated and or free of chemicals, incorporating price comparisons using a descriptive approach. The study design employed a questionnaire approach via interview using a computer-assisted telephone system and sampled 1,540 participants across five key locations in Italy. To actualize consumer sensitivity, 'price' was the focus given its crucial role as a consumption barrier. Prior to this, variables such as demographic characteristics of participants, frequency of purchasing, quality attributes/factors that limit the consumption of crustaceans were equally considered. By price comparisons, consumers are likely to favor chemical-free (modified atmosphere packaging) crustacean products amid a price increase of up to 15%. But, a further price increase such as by 25% could markedly damage consumers' feelings, which might lead to a considerable number opting out in favor of either chemical-treated or other seafood products. Comparing locations, the studied variables showed no statistical differences (p>0.05). On the contrary, the response weightings fluctuated across the studied categories. Both response weightings and coefficient of variation helped reveal more about how responses deviated per variable categories. This study has revealed some foundational knowledge about how consumers perceive traditionally harvested crustaceans that were either chemical-treated or subject to chemical-free preservative up to price sensitivity using Italy as a reference case, which is applicable to other parts

  10. Comparison of modelling techniques for milk-production forecasting.

    PubMed

    Murphy, M D; O'Mahony, M J; Shalloo, L; French, P; Upton, J

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of 3 different modeling techniques for the prediction of total daily herd milk yield from a herd of 140 lactating pasture-based dairy cows over varying forecast horizons. A nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input, a static artificial neural network, and a multiple linear regression model were developed using 3 yr of historical milk-production data. The models predicted the total daily herd milk yield over a full season using a 305-d forecast horizon and 50-, 30-, and 10-d moving piecewise horizons to test the accuracy of the models over long- and short-term periods. All 3 models predicted the daily production levels for a full lactation of 305 d with a percentage root mean square error (RMSE) of ≤ 12.03%. However, the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input was capable of increasing its prediction accuracy as the horizon was shortened from 305 to 50, 30, and 10 d [RMSE (%)=8.59, 8.1, 6.77, 5.84], whereas the static artificial neural network [RMSE (%)=12.03, 12.15, 11.74, 10.7] and the multiple linear regression model [RMSE (%)=10.62, 10.68, 10.62, 10.54] were not able to reduce their forecast error over the same horizons to the same extent. For this particular application the nonlinear auto-regressive model with exogenous input can be presented as a more accurate alternative to conventional regression modeling techniques, especially for short-term milk-yield predictions.

  11. Comparing a number line and audio prompts in supporting price comparison by students with intellectual disability.

    PubMed

    Bouck, Emily C; Satsangi, Rajiv; Bartlett, Whitney

    2016-01-01

    Price comparison is an important and complex skill, but it lacks sufficient research attention in terms of educating secondary students with intellectual disability and/or autism spectrum disorder. This alternating treatment design study compared the use of a paper-based number line and audio prompts delivered via an audio recorder to support three secondary students with intellectual disability to independently and accuracy compare the price of three separate grocery items. The study consisted of 22 sessions, spread across baseline, intervention, best treatment, and two different generalization phases. Data were collected on the percent of task analysis steps completed independently, the type of prompts needed, students' accuracy selecting the lowest priced item, and task completion time. With both intervention conditions, students were able to independently complete the task analysis steps as well as accurately select the lowest priced item and decrease their task completion time. For two of the students, the audio recorder condition resulted in the greatest independence and for one the number line. For only one student was the condition with the greatest independence also the condition for the highest rate of accuracy. The results suggest both tools can support students with price comparison. Yet, audio recorders offer students and teachers an age-appropriate and setting-appropriate option. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The Second NWRA Flare-Forecasting Comparison Workshop: Methods Compared and Methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leka, K. D.; Barnes, G.; the Flare Forecasting Comparison Group

    2013-07-01

    The Second NWRA Workshop to compare methods of solar flare forecasting was held 2-4 April 2013 in Boulder, CO. This is a follow-on to the First NWRA Workshop on Flare Forecasting Comparison, also known as the ``All-Clear Forecasting Workshop'', held in 2009 jointly with NASA/SRAG and NOAA/SWPC. For this most recent workshop, many researchers who are active in the field participated, and diverse methods were represented in terms of both the characterization of the Sun and the statistical approaches used to create a forecast. A standard dataset was created for this investigation, using data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory/ Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI) vector magnetic field HARP series. For each HARP on each day, 6 hours of data were used, allowing for nominal time-series analysis to be included in the forecasts. We present here a summary of the forecasting methods that participated and the standardized dataset that was used. Funding for the workshop and the data analysis was provided by NASA/Living with a Star contract NNH09CE72C and NASA/Guest Investigator contract NNH12CG10C.

  13. Toward crustacean without chemicals: a descriptive analysis of consumer response using price comparisons

    PubMed Central

    Okpala, Charles Odilichukwu R.; Bono, Gioacchino; Pipitone, Vito; Vitale, Sergio; Cannizzaro, Leonardo

    2016-01-01

    Background To date, there seems to be limited-to-zero emphasis about how consumers perceive crustacean products subject to either chemical and or non-chemical preservative treatments. In addition, studies that investigated price comparisons of crustacean products subject to either chemical or chemical-free preservative methods seem unreported. Objective This study focused on providing some foundational knowledge about how consumers perceive traditionally harvested crustaceans that are either chemical-treated and or free of chemicals, incorporating price comparisons using a descriptive approach. Design The study design employed a questionnaire approach via interview using a computer-assisted telephone system and sampled 1,540 participants across five key locations in Italy. To actualize consumer sensitivity, ‘price’ was the focus given its crucial role as a consumption barrier. Prior to this, variables such as demographic characteristics of participants, frequency of purchasing, quality attributes/factors that limit the consumption of crustaceans were equally considered. Results By price comparisons, consumers are likely to favor chemical-free (modified atmosphere packaging) crustacean products amid a price increase of up to 15%. But, a further price increase such as by 25% could markedly damage consumers’ feelings, which might lead to a considerable number opting out in favor of either chemical-treated or other seafood products. Comparing locations, the studied variables showed no statistical differences (p>0.05). On the contrary, the response weightings fluctuated across the studied categories. Both response weightings and coefficient of variation helped reveal more about how responses deviated per variable categories. Conclusions This study has revealed some foundational knowledge about how consumers perceive traditionally harvested crustaceans that were either chemical-treated or subject to chemical-free preservative up to price sensitivity using Italy as

  14. Accounting for fuel price risk when comparing renewable togas-fired generation: the role of forward natural gas prices

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan; Golove, William

    2004-07-17

    Unlike natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation (e.g., from wind, solar, and geothermal power) is largely immune to fuel price risk. If ratepayers are rational and value long-term price stability, then--contrary to common practice--any comparison of the levelized cost of renewable to gas-fired generation should be based on a hedged gas price input, rather than an uncertain gas price forecast. This paper compares natural gas prices that can be locked in through futures, swaps, and physical supply contracts to contemporaneous long-term forecasts of spot gas prices. We find that from 2000-2003, forward gas prices for terms of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most contemporaneous long-term gas price forecasts. This difference is striking, and implies that comparisons between renewable and gas-fired generation based on these forecasts over this period have arguably yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation.

  15. Comparison of Observation Impacts in Two Forecast Systems using Adjoint Methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelaro, Ronald; Langland, Rolf; Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.

  16. Association equation of state (AEOS) based on aggregate formation for pure substance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohsen-Nia, M.; Modarress, H.

    2007-07-01

    Based on the statistical mechanical theories and by using the concept of grand canonical ensemble a new equation of state for aggregate formations in the association fluids has been proposed. The compressibility factor for aggregate formation in an association fluid is represented by the following equation: Z=Z+Z-1 where Zagg is the aggregate compressibility factor due to aggregate formation by hydrogen bonding of molecules and Zdis is the dispersed compressibility factor due to dispersion interactions. Each aggregate is considered as an open system in the grand canonical ensemble in which a molecule can enter to form a larger aggregate or leave to form a smaller aggregate. The average number of molecules in an aggregate is used to obtain the compressibility factor Zagg and M4 equation of state previously proposed by Mohsen-Nia et al. [M. Mohsen-Nia, H. Modarress, G.A. Mansoori, Fluid Phase Equilibr. 206 (2003) 27.] for non-association compounds is used to obtain Zdis. The obtained new association equation of state (AEOS) based on the proposed compressibility factor is used for saturated properties calculations of pure well-known association fluids: water, ammonia and methanol. The results indicate that the saturated properties are well correlated by the new AEOS with a reasonable average number of molecules in each aggregate which is in agreement with spectroscopic experimental data and ab initio calculations.

  17. Study on impact of energy price comparison on energy saving benefits of heat pump in North China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, X.; Tian, Q.; Zhang, Y. G.; Bai, H. F.

    2016-08-01

    As to the heat pump technology applying in the HVAC engineering, the relationship between energy saving rate (ESR) and electricity cost saving rate (ECSR) of heat pump should be a positive correlation in theory. But in the actual energy price system, due to the fluctuating energy price comparison, the relationship between them is of less coordination. Moreover, despite the high ESR, the economic benefit of ECSR is lost. In this paper, via the case analysis under the condition of average technical and economic parameters in North China, the critical point rate of economic benefit of ECSR in energy price comparison among prices of residential electricity, steam-coal, and residential natural gas is found, which is about 2:3:8. Also, a viewpoint as well as method is suggested to promote the wide usage of heat pump, balance energy supply structure, save energy consumption, and reduce emissions by optimizing the energy price comparison, which is feasible and desirable to raise the price comparison between residential electricity and natural gas, and reduce the price comparison between residential electricity and steam-coal in a certain extent.

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    options within each core, provides SMG and NWS MLB with a lot of flexibility. It also creates challenges, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and to determine which configuration will best predict warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. Four different combinations of WRF initializations will be run (ADAS-ARW, ADAS-NMM, LAPS-ARW, and LAPS-NMM) at a 4-km resolution over the Florida peninsula and adjacent coastal waters. Five candidate convective initiation days using three different flow regimes over East-Central Florida will be examined, as well as two null cases (non-convection days). Each model run will be integrated 12 hours with three runs per day, at 0900, 1200, and 1500 UTe. ADAS analyses will be generated every 30 minutes using Level II Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) data from all Florida radars to verify the convection forecast. These analyses will be run on the same domain as the four model configurations. To quantify model performance, model output will be subjectively compared to the ADAS analyses of convection to determine forecast accuracy. In addition, a subjective comparison of the performance of the ARW using a high-resolution local grid with 2-way nesting, I-way nesting, and no nesting will be made for select convective initiation cases. The inner grid will cover the East-Central Florida region at a resolution of 1.33 km. The authors will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for predicting warm season convective initiation over East-Central Florida.

  19. A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. I. Results from the “All-Clear” Workshop

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnes, G.; Leka, K. D.; Schrijver, C. J.; Colak, T.; Qahwaji, R.; Ashamari, O. W.; Yuan, Y.; Zhang, J.; McAteer, R. T. J.; Bloomfield, D. S.; Higgins, P. A.; Gallagher, P. T.; Falconer, D. A.; Georgoulis, M. K.; Wheatland, M. S.; Balch, C.; Dunn, T.; Wagner, E. L.

    2016-10-01

    Solar flares produce radiation that can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare forecasting using photospheric magnetic field observations has proliferated, with varying claims about how well each works. Because of the different analysis techniques and data sets used, it is essentially impossible to compare the results from the literature. This problem is exacerbated by the low event rates of large solar flares. The challenges of forecasting rare events have long been recognized in the meteorology community, but have yet to be fully acknowledged by the space weather community. During the interagency workshop on “all clear” forecasts held in Boulder, CO in 2009, the performance of a number of existing algorithms was compared on common data sets, specifically line-of-sight magnetic field and continuum intensity images from the Michelson Doppler Imager, with consistent definitions of what constitutes an event. We demonstrate the importance of making such systematic comparisons, and of using standard verification statistics to determine what constitutes a good prediction scheme. When a comparison was made in this fashion, no one method clearly outperformed all others, which may in part be due to the strong correlations among the parameters used by different methods to characterize an active region. For M-class flares and above, the set of methods tends toward a weakly positive skill score (as measured with several distinct metrics), with no participating method proving substantially better than climatological forecasts.

  20. Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

    2009-04-01

    Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic

  1. Analyzing the Stability of Price Response Functions: Measuring the Influence of Different Parameters in a Monte Carlo Comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brusch, Michael; Baier, Daniel

    The usage and the estimation of price response function is very important for strategic marketing decisions. Typically price response functions with an empirical basis are used. However, such price response functions are subject to a lot of disturbing influence factors, e.g., the assumed profit maximum price and the assumed corresponding quantity of sales. In such cases, the question how stable the found price response function is was not answered sufficiently up to now. In this paper, the question will be pursued how much (and what kind of) errors in market research are pardonable for a stable price response function. For the comparisons, a factorial design with synthetically generated and disturbed data is used.

  2. Evaluation and comparison of O3 forecasts of ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flandorfer, Claudia; Hirtl, Marcus

    2015-04-01

    ZAMG runs two models for Air-Quality forecasts operationally: ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem. ALARO-CAMx is a combination of the meteorological model ALARO and the photochemical dispersion model CAMx and is operated at ZAMG by order of the regional governments since 2005. The emphasis of this modeling system is on predicting ozone peaks in the north-east Austrian flatlands. Two modeling domains are used with the highest resolution (5 km) in the alpine region. Various extensions with external data sources have been conducted in the past to improve the daily forecasts of the model, e.g. data assimilation of O3- and PM10 observations from the Austrian measurement network (with optimum interpolation technique); MACC-II boundary conditions; combination of high resolved emission inventories for Austria with TNO and EMEP data. The biogenic emissions are provided by the SMOKE model. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 48 hours. The second model which is operational is the on-line coupled model WRF-Chem. Meteorology is simulated simultaneously with the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate of trace gases and aerosols. 2 domains are used for the simulations. The mother domain covers Europe with a resolution of 12 km. The inner domain includes the alpine region with a horizontal resolution of 4km. 45 model levels are used in the vertical. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 72 hours and is initialized with ECMWF forecasts. The evaluation of both models is conducted for summer 2014 with the main focus on the forecasts of ozone. The measurements of the Air-Quality stations are compared with the punctual forecasts at the sites of the stations and with the area forecasts for every province of Austria. Beside the evaluation a comparison of the forecasts of ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem is done. The summer 2014 was the coldest and the dullest in the last 9 years. Due to this only two exceedances of the information threshold were measured (June

  3. Comparison of tiered formularies and reference pricing policies: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Morgan, Steve; Hanley, Gillian; Greyson, Devon

    2009-01-01

    To synthesize methodologically comparable evidence from the published literature regarding the outcomes of tiered formularies and therapeutic reference pricing of prescription drugs. We searched the following electronic databases: ABI/Inform, CINAHL, Clinical Evidence, Digital Dissertations & Theses, Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews (which incorporates ACP Journal Club, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Methodology Register, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Health Technology Assessments and NHS Economic Evaluation Database), EconLit, EMBASE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, PAIS International and PAIS Archive, and the Web of Science. We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles and several grey literature sources. We sought English-language studies published from 1986 to 2007 that examined the effects of either therapeutic reference pricing or tiered formularies, reported on outcomes relevant to patient care and cost-effectiveness, and employed quantitative study designs that included concurrent or historical comparison groups. We abstracted and assessed potentially appropriate articles using a modified version of the data abstraction form developed by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group. From an initial list of 2964 citations, 12 citations (representing 11 studies) were deemed eligible for inclusion in our review: 3 studies (reported in 4 articles) of reference pricing and 8 studies of tiered formularies. The introduction of reference pricing was associated with reduced plan spending, switching to preferred medicines, reduced overall drug utilization and short-term increases in the use of physician services. Reference pricing was not associated with adverse health impacts. The introduction of tiered formularies was associated with reduced plan expenditures, greater patient costs and increased rates of non-compliance with

  4. Comparison of tiered formularies and reference pricing policies: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Steve; Hanley, Gillian; Greyson, Devon

    2009-01-01

    Objectives To synthesize methodologically comparable evidence from the published literature regarding the outcomes of tiered formularies and therapeutic reference pricing of prescription drugs. Methods We searched the following electronic databases: ABI/Inform, CINAHL, Clinical Evidence, Digital Dissertations & Theses, Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews (which incorporates ACP Journal Club, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Methodology Register, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Health Technology Assessments and NHS Economic Evaluation Database), EconLit, EMBASE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, PAIS International and PAIS Archive, and the Web of Science. We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles and several grey literature sources. We sought English-language studies published from 1986 to 2007 that examined the effects of either therapeutic reference pricing or tiered formularies, reported on outcomes relevant to patient care and cost-effectiveness, and employed quantitative study designs that included concurrent or historical comparison groups. We abstracted and assessed potentially appropriate articles using a modified version of the data abstraction form developed by the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group. Results From an initial list of 2964 citations, 12 citations (representing 11 studies) were deemed eligible for inclusion in our review: 3 studies (reported in 4 articles) of reference pricing and 8 studies of tiered formularies. The introduction of reference pricing was associated with reduced plan spending, switching to preferred medicines, reduced overall drug utilization and short-term increases in the use of physician services. Reference pricing was not associated with adverse health impacts. The introduction of tiered formularies was associated with reduced plan expenditures, greater patient costs and increased rates of

  5. A Comparison of Some Difference Schemes for a Parabolic Problem of Zero-Coupon Bond Pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernogorova, Tatiana; Vulkov, Lubin

    2009-11-01

    This paper describes a comparison of some numerical methods for solving a convection-diffusion equation subjected by dynamical boundary conditions which arises in the zero-coupon bond pricing. The one-dimensional convection-diffusion equation is solved by using difference schemes with weights including standard difference schemes as the monotone Samarskii's scheme, FTCS and Crank-Nicolson methods. The schemes are free of spurious oscillations and satisfy the positivity and maximum principle as demanded for the financial and diffusive solution. Numerical results are compared with analytical solutions.

  6. Who Is the Big Spender? Price Index Effects in Comparisons of Educational Expenditures between Countries and Over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arneberg, Marie; Bowitz, Einar

    2006-01-01

    International comparisons of data on expenditure on education use purchasing power parities for currency conversion and adjustment for price differences between countries to allow for volume comparisons. The resulting indicators are commonly interpreted as differences between countries in input volumes to the education sector-teachers, materials,…

  7. Who Is the Big Spender? Price Index Effects in Comparisons of Educational Expenditures between Countries and Over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arneberg, Marie; Bowitz, Einar

    2006-01-01

    International comparisons of data on expenditure on education use purchasing power parities for currency conversion and adjustment for price differences between countries to allow for volume comparisons. The resulting indicators are commonly interpreted as differences between countries in input volumes to the education sector-teachers, materials,…

  8. A price and use comparison of generic versus originator cardiovascular medicines: a hospital study in Chongqing, China.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Wenjie

    2013-10-05

    Developed countries use generic competition to contain pharmaceutical expenditure. China, as a developing and transitional country, has not yet deemed an increase in the use of generic products as important; otherwise, much effort has been made to decrease the drug prices. This paper aims to explore dynamically the price and use comparison of generic and originator drugs in China, and estimate the potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics. A typical hospital in Chongqing, China, was selected to examine the price and use comparisons of 12 cardiovascular drugs from 2006 to 2011. The market share of the 12 generic medicines studied in this paper was 34.37% for volume and 31.33% for value in the second half of 2011. The price ratio of generic to originator drugs was between 0.34 and 0.98, and the volume price index of originators to generics was 1.63. The potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics is 65%. The market share of the generics was lowering and the weighted mean price kept increasing in face of the strict price control. Under the background of hospitals both prescribing and dispensing medicines, China's comprehensive healthcare policy makers should take measures from supply and demand sides to promote the consumption of generic medicines.

  9. A price and use comparison of generic versus originator cardiovascular medicines: a hospital study in Chongqing, China

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Developed countries use generic competition to contain pharmaceutical expenditure. China, as a developing and transitional country, has not yet deemed an increase in the use of generic products as important; otherwise, much effort has been made to decrease the drug prices. This paper aims to explore dynamically the price and use comparison of generic and originator drugs in China, and estimate the potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics. Methods A typical hospital in Chongqing, China, was selected to examine the price and use comparisons of 12 cardiovascular drugs from 2006 to 2011. Results The market share of the 12 generic medicines studied in this paper was 34.37% for volume and 31.33% for value in the second half of 2011. The price ratio of generic to originator drugs was between 0.34 and 0.98, and the volume price index of originators to generics was 1.63. The potential savings of patients from switching originator drugs to generics is 65%. Conclusion The market share of the generics was lowering and the weighted mean price kept increasing in face of the strict price control. Under the background of hospitals both prescribing and dispensing medicines, China’s comprehensive healthcare policy makers should take measures from supply and demand sides to promote the consumption of generic medicines. PMID:24093493

  10. Price controls and international petroleum product prices

    SciTech Connect

    Deacon, R.T.; Mead, W.J.; Agarwal, V.B.

    1980-02-01

    The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

  11. Contrail Cirrus Forecasts for the ML-CIRRUS Experiment and Some Comparison Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann, Ulrich; Graf, Kaspar; Bugliaro, Luca; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Giez, Andreas; Jurkat, Tina; Kaufmann, Stefan; Krämer, Martina; Minikin, Andreas; Schäfler, Andreas; Voigt, Christiane; Wirth, Martin; Zahn, Andreas; Ziereis, Helmut

    2015-04-01

    rerun with improved ECMWF-NWP data (at one-hour time resolution). The model results are included in the HALO mission data bank, and the results are available for comparison to in-situ data. The data are useful for identifying aircraft and other sources for measured air properties. The joint analysis of observations and model result has basically just started. Preliminary results from comparisons with lidar-measured extinction profiles, in-situ measured humidity, nitrogen oxides, and aerosol and ice particle concentrations, and with meteorological observations (wind, temperature etc.) illustrate the expected gain in insight. The contrail forecasts have been checked by comparison to available data including satellite data and HALO observations. During the campaign, it became obvious that predicted contrail cirrus cover compared qualitatively mostly well with what was found when HALO reached predicted cirrus regions. From the analysis of the measured data, some examples of significant correlation between model results and observations have been found. However, the quantitative agreement is not uniform. As expected, nature is far more variable than a model can predict. The observed optical properties of cirrus and contrails vary far more in time and space than predicted. Local values were often far higher or lower than mean values. A one-to-one correlation between local observations and model results is not to be expected. This inhomogeneity may have consequences for the climate impact of aviation induced cloud changes.

  12. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

  13. Price comparison of high-cost originator medicines in European countries.

    PubMed

    Vogler, Sabine; Zimmermann, Nina; Babar, Zaheer-Ud-Din

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, high-cost medicines have increasingly been challenging the public health budget in all countries including high-income economies. In this context, this study aims to survey, analyze and compare prices of medicines that likely contribute to high expenditure for the public payers in high-income countries. We chose the following 16 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia, Spain and United Kingdom. The ex-factory price data of 30 medicines in these countries were collected in national databases accessible through the Pharmaceutical Price Information (PPI) service of Gesundheit Österreich GmbH (Austrian Public Health Institute). The ex-factory prices (median) per unit (e.g. per tablet, vial) ranged from 10.67 cent (levodopa + decarboxylase inhibitor) to 17,000 euro (ipilimumab). A total of 53% of the medicines surveyed had a unit ex-factory price (median) above 200 Euro. For two thirds of the medicines, price differences between the highest-priced country and lowest-priced country ranged between 25 and 100%; the remaining medicines, mainly low-priced medicines, had higher price differential, up to 251%. Medicines with unit prices of a few euros or less were medicines for the treatment of diseases in the nervous system (anti-depressants, medicines to treat Parkinson and for the management of neuropathic pain), of obstructive airway diseases and cardio-vascular medicines (lipid modifying agents). High-priced medicines were particularly cancer medicines. Medicine prices of Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and UK were frequently at the lower end, German and Swedish, as well as Danish and Irish prices at the upper end. For high-priced medicines, actual paid prices are likely to be lower due to confidential discounts and similar funding arrangements between industry and public payers. Pricing authorities refer to the higher undiscounted prices when they use

  14. Annual energy outlook 1995, with projections to 2010

    SciTech Connect

    1995-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projections and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1995 and 1996 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1995). Forecast tables for the five cases examined in the AEO95 are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendix A gives historical data and forecasts for selected years from 1992 through 2010 for the reference case. Appendix B presents two additional cases, which assume higher and lower economic growth than the reference case. Appendix C presents two cases that assume higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix D presents a summary of the forecasts in units of oil equivalence. Appendix E presents a summary of household energy expenditures. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO95 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly describes NEMS and the major AEO95 forecast assumptions. Appendix H presents a stand-alone high electricity demand case. Appendix 1 provides a table of energy conversion factors and a table of metric conversion factors. 89 figs., 23 tabs.

  15. A comparison of the effects of initializing different thermosphere-ionosphere model fields on storm time plasma density forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, Alex T.; Jackson, David R.; Mitchell, Cathryn N.

    2013-11-01

    assimilation has been used successfully for real-time ionospheric specification, but it has not yet proved advantageous for forecasting. The most challenging and important ionospheric events to forecast are storms. The work presented here examines the effectiveness of data assimilation in a storm situation, where the initial conditions are known and the model is considered to be correct but the external solar and geomagnetic drivers are poorly specified. The aim is to determine whether data assimilation could be used to improve storm time forecast accuracy. The results show that, in the case of the storm of Halloween 2003, changes made to the model's initial thermospheric conditions improve electron density forecasts by at least 10% for 18 h, while changes to ionospheric fields alone result in >10% forecast accuracy improvement for less than 4 h. Further examination shows that the neutral composition is especially important to the accuracy of ionospheric electron density forecasts. Updating the neutral composition gives almost all the benefits of updating the complete thermospheric state. A comparison with real, globally distributed observations of vertical total electron content confirms that updating the thermospheric composition can improve forecast accuracy.

  16. Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble, ocean coupled ensemble, and GloSea5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Sangwook; Kim, Dong-Joon; Lee, Seung-Woo; Lee, Kie-Woung; Kim, Jongkhun; Song, Eun-Ji; Seo, Kyong-Hwan

    2017-08-01

    This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system (EPSG) and ocean-atmosphere coupledEPSG) and KMA operational seasonal prediction system, the Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). The main motivation is to investigate whether the ensemble NWP system can provide advantage over the existing seasonal prediction system for the extended medium-range forecast (30 days) even with putting extra resources in extended integration or coupling with ocean with NWP system. Two types of evaluation statistics are examined: the basic verification statistics - the anomaly correlation and RMSE of 500-hPa geopotential height and 1.5-meter surface temperature for the global and East Asia area, and the other is the Real-time Multivariate Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices (RMM1 and RMM2) - which is used to examine the MJO prediction skill. The MJO is regarded as a main source of forecast skill in the tropics linked to the mid-latitude weather on monthly time scale. Under limited number of experiment cases, the coupled NWP extends the forecast skill of the NWP by a few more days, and thereafter such forecast skill is overtaken by that of the seasonal prediction system. At present stage, it seems there is little gain from the coupled NWP even though more resources are put into it. Considering this, the best combination of numerical product guidance for operational forecasters for an extended medium-range is extension of the forecast lead time of the current ensemble NWP (EPSG) up to 20 days and use of the seasonal prediction system (GloSea5) forecast thereafter, though there exists a matter of consistency between the two systems.

  17. Performance Comparison of High Resolution Weather Research and Forecasting Model Output with North American Mesoscale Model Initialization Grid Forecasts

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    12  Figure 6. Comparison of the 2-m dew point temperature RMSE statistic for Domain 2. .......................... 13...Figure 7. Comparison of the 2-m dew point temperature Bias statistic for Domain 2. ............................. 14  Figure 8. Comparison of the mean sea...for Domain 2. ........................................................................................... 27  Figure 18. Comparison of the 2-m dew

  18. Regional Comparisons, Spatial Aggregation, and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through

    EIA Publications

    2005-01-01

    Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present.

  19. Supply prices to increase slightly.

    PubMed

    Hard, R

    1991-03-05

    Expect hospital supply prices to increase by about 3 percent to 4 percent during 1991, says the new economic forecast from the Joint Purchasing Corp. (JPC), New York City. JPC's report may help reduce the uncertainty for those making supply price forecasts during the current recession. The Economic Forecast and Budget Impact Report presents economic information from industry analysts and publishes the data in a single volume. The JPC forecast can be used as a guide to help determine price changes; however, it's also important to consider changes in consumption, utilization, and quality when using the report, says JPC's president.

  20. A Comparison of Water Vapor Quantities from Model Short-Range Forecasts and ARM Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the “Mergedsounding” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  1. A comparison of water vapor quantities from model short-range forecasts and ARM observations

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-03-17

    Model evolution and improvement is complicated by the lack of high quality observational data. To address a major limitation of these measurements the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program was formed. For the second quarter ARM metric we will make use of new water vapor data that has become available, and called the 'Merged-sounding' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Darwin Australia (DAR) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both DAR and NSA. The merged-sounding data have been interpolated to 37 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3 hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  2. A comparison of model short-range forecasts and the ARM Microbase data

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J J

    2006-09-22

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the 'Microbase' value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  3. High and low or close to close prices? Evidence from the multifractal volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhichao; Ma, Feng; Long, Yujia

    2015-06-01

    In this study, we examine the daily returns and daily range returns dependent on close-close and the high-low prices when forecasting multifractal volatility in the Chinese stock market. In in-sample forecasting we find that both the daily returns and range returns have a significant impact on the future multifractal volatility, existing the well-established phenomenon of "leverage effects" of the positive and negative returns. Moreover, using the MF-DFA method, we find that both the two series present the persistence and exhibit the multifractal features. Furthermore, our MCS test results show that the ARFIMA-lnMFV-R and ARFIMA-lnMFV-LR models provide relatively superior volatility forecasts in comparison to all other models. Finally, we find that the daily returns calculated by close to close prices have a greater power than the daily range return calculated by high and low prices in forecasting.

  4. A Comparison of Pricing Strategies for Bibliographical Databases on CDROM and Equivalent Printed Products.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowley, Jennifer; Butcher, David

    1994-01-01

    Considers comparative prices for bibliographic data on CD-ROM and in print. Topics addressed include differences in the nature of bibliographic data in the two media, the relative complexities of pricing structure, varying policies on network pricing, and standardization of the licensing arrangement. (KRN)

  5. A Comparison of Pricing Strategies for Bibliographical Databases on CDROM and Equivalent Printed Products.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowley, Jennifer; Butcher, David

    1994-01-01

    Considers comparative prices for bibliographic data on CD-ROM and in print. Topics addressed include differences in the nature of bibliographic data in the two media, the relative complexities of pricing structure, varying policies on network pricing, and standardization of the licensing arrangement. (KRN)

  6. Annual energy outlook 1994: With projections to 2010

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94) presents the midterm energy forecasts of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This year`s report presents projects and analyses of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2010, based for the first time on results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). NEMS is the latest in a series of computer-based energy modeling systems used over the past 2 decades by EIA and its predecessor organization, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze and forecast energy consumption and supply in the midterm period (about 20 years). Quarterly forecasts of energy supply and demand for 1994 and 1995 are published in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (February 1994). Forecast tables for 2000, 2005, and 2010 for each of the five scenarios examined in the AEO94 are provided in Appendices A through E. The five scenarios include a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. Appendix F provides detailed comparisons of the AEO94 forecasts with those of other organizations. Appendix G briefly described the NEMS and the major AEO94 forecast assumptions. Appendix H summarizes the key results for the five scenarios.

  7. A Statistical Comparison of the Blossom Blight Forecasts of MARYBLYT and Cougarblight with Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis.

    PubMed

    Dewdney, M M; Biggs, A R; Turechek, W W

    2007-09-01

    ABSTRACT Blossom blight forecasting is an important aspect of fire blight, caused by Erwinia amylovora, management for both apple and pear. A comparison of the forecast accuracy of two common fire blight forecasters, MARYBLYT and Cougarblight, was performed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and 243 data sets. The rain threshold of Cougarblight was analyzed as a separate model termed Cougarblight and rain. Data were used as a whole and then grouped into geographic regions and cultivar susceptibilities. Frequency distributions of cases and controls, orchards or regions (depending on the data set), with and without observed disease, respectively, in all data sets overlapped. MARYBLYT, Cougarblight, and Cougarblight and rain all predicted blossom blight infection better than chance (P = 0.05). It was found that the blossom blight forecasters performed equivalently in the geographic regions of the east and west coasts of North America and moderately susceptible cultivars based on the 95% confidence intervals and pairwise contrasts of the area under the ROC curve. Significant differences (P < 0.05) between the forecasts of Cougarblight and MARYBLYT were found with pairwise contrasts in the England and very susceptible cultivar data sets. Youden's index was used to determine the optimal cutpoint of both forecasters. The greatest sensitivity and specificity for MARYBLYT coincided with the use of the highest risk threshold for predictions of infection; with Cougarblight, there was no clear single risk threshold across all data sets.

  8. Comparison of United States and Canadian Glaucoma Medication Costs and Price Change from 2006 to 2013

    PubMed Central

    Schlenker, Matthew B.; Trope, Graham E.; Buys, Yvonne M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. Compare glaucoma medication costs between the United States (USA) and Canada. Methods. We modelled glaucoma brand name and generic medication annual costs in the USA and Canada based on October 2013 Costco prices and previously reported bottle overfill rates, drops per mL, and wastage adjustment. We also calculated real wholesale price changes from 2006 to 2013 based on the Average Wholesale Price (USA) and the Ontario Drug Benefit Price (Canada). Results. US brand name medication costs were on average 4x more than Canadian medication costs (range: 1.9x–6.9x), averaging a cost difference of $859 annually. US generic costs were on average the same as Canadian costs, though variation exists. US brand name wholesale prices increased from 2006 to 2013 more than Canadian prices (US range: 29%–349%; Canadian range: 9%–16%). US generic wholesale prices increased modestly (US range: −23%–58%), and Canadian wholesale prices decreased (Canadian range: −38%–0%). Conclusions. US brand name glaucoma medications are more expensive than Canadian medications, though generic costs are similar (with some variation). The real prices of brand name medications increased more in the USA than in Canada. Generic price changes were more modest, with real prices actually decreasing in Canada. PMID:25922760

  9. Comparison of United States and canadian glaucoma medication costs and price change from 2006 to 2013.

    PubMed

    Schlenker, Matthew B; Trope, Graham E; Buys, Yvonne M

    2015-01-01

    Objective. Compare glaucoma medication costs between the United States (USA) and Canada. Methods. We modelled glaucoma brand name and generic medication annual costs in the USA and Canada based on October 2013 Costco prices and previously reported bottle overfill rates, drops per mL, and wastage adjustment. We also calculated real wholesale price changes from 2006 to 2013 based on the Average Wholesale Price (USA) and the Ontario Drug Benefit Price (Canada). Results. US brand name medication costs were on average 4x more than Canadian medication costs (range: 1.9x-6.9x), averaging a cost difference of $859 annually. US generic costs were on average the same as Canadian costs, though variation exists. US brand name wholesale prices increased from 2006 to 2013 more than Canadian prices (US range: 29%-349%; Canadian range: 9%-16%). US generic wholesale prices increased modestly (US range: -23%-58%), and Canadian wholesale prices decreased (Canadian range: -38%-0%). Conclusions. US brand name glaucoma medications are more expensive than Canadian medications, though generic costs are similar (with some variation). The real prices of brand name medications increased more in the USA than in Canada. Generic price changes were more modest, with real prices actually decreasing in Canada.

  10. The price may not be right: the value of comparison shopping for prescription drugs.

    PubMed

    Arora, Sanjay; Sood, Neeraj; Terp, Sophie; Joyce, Geoffrey

    2017-07-01

    To measure variations in drug prices across and within zip codes that may reveal simple strategies to improve patients' access to prescribed medications. We compared drug prices at different types of pharmacies across and within local markets. In-store prices were compared with a Web-based service providing discount coupons for prescription medications. Prices were collected for 2 generic antibiotics because most patients have limited experience with them and are less likely to know the price ranges for them. Drug prices were obtained via telephone from 528 pharmacies in Los Angeles (LA) County, California, from July to August 2014. Online prices were collected from GoodRx, a popular Web-based service that aggregates available discounts and directly negotiates with retail outlets. Drug prices found at independent pharmacies and by using discount coupons available online were lower on average than at grocery, big-box, or chain drug stores for 2 widely prescribed antibiotics. The lowest-price prescription was offered at a grocery, big-box, or chain drug store in 6% of zip codes within the LA County area. Drug prices varied dramatically within a zip code, however, and were less expensive in lower-income areas. The average price difference within a zip code was $52 for levofloxacin and $17 for azithromycin. Price shopping for medications within a small geographic area can yield considerable cost savings for the uninsured and consumers in high-deductible health plans with high negotiated prices. Clinicians and patient advocates have an incentive to convey this information to patients to improve adherence to prescribed medicines and lower the financial burden of purchasing prescription drugs.

  11. Statistically tested comparisons of the accuracy of forecasting methods for age-specific and sex-specific mortality and life expectancy.

    PubMed

    Shang, Han Lin

    2015-01-01

    Although there are continuing developments in the methods for forecasting mortality, there are few comparisons of the accuracy of the forecasts. The subject of the statistical validity of these comparisons, which is essential to demographic forecasting, has all but been ignored. We introduce Friedman's test statistics to examine whether the differences in point and interval forecast accuracies are statistically significant between methods. We introduce the Nemenyi test statistic to identify which methods give results that are statistically significantly different from others. Using sex-specific and age-specific data from 20 countries, we apply these two test statistics to examine the forecast accuracy obtained from several principal component methods, which can be categorized into coherent and non-coherent forecasting methods.

  12. Quantitative comparison between two different methodologies to define rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lagomarsino, D.; Segoni, S.; Rosi, A.; Rossi, G.; Battistini, A.; Catani, F.; Casagli, N.

    2015-10-01

    This work proposes a methodology to compare the forecasting effectiveness of different rainfall threshold models for landslide forecasting. We tested our methodology with two state-of-the-art models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds. The first model identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means of a software program called MaCumBA (MAssive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) (Segoni et al., 2014a) that analyzes rain gauge records, extracts intensity (I) and duration (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram and identifies the thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events is used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least number of false alarms. The second model (SIGMA) (Sistema Integrato Gestione Monitoraggio Allerta) (Martelloni et al., 2012) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of accumulated rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations. To perform a quantitative and objective comparison, these two models were applied in two different areas, each time performing a site-specific calibration against available rainfall and landslide data. For each application, a validation procedure was carried out on an independent data set and a confusion matrix was built. The results of the confusion matrixes were combined to define a series of indexes commonly used to evaluate model performances in natural hazard assessment. The comparison of these indexes allowed to identify the most effective model in each case study and, consequently, which threshold should be used in the

  13. Comparison of kinetic and air temperatures in Budapest aiming applications in weather forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mika, Janos; Nemeth, Akos; Bela Olah, Andras; Dezso, Zsuzsanna

    2010-05-01

    Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) based kinetic temperature data are compared with the surface air temperature data at the four weather stations in Budapest, Hun-gary. Dependence of these temperature characteristics on weather conditions, characterised by macrosynoptic types and by objective weather types, is in the focus of the study. Day- and night-time kinetic temperature series are used from the period 2001-2008. Four automatic stations are also used as the surface-based control variables. The four MODIS-pixels, covering one station, each, are the sites of our comparison. One of the four stations has strictly urban situation at the roof level in a strongly built-in region of Budapest. Another one, used as background rural station is at the east-west edge of the town with gar-dened environment. Two other stations are positioned near the river Danube at the northern and southern edges of Budapest, still under mezo-scale effect of the city. The number of elaborated hourly values is 4300-4400 above each pixel, depending on the cloudiness. At the four station automatic observations on air temperature, cloudiness (=0), relative humidity and wind-speed are observed in the hours of the MODIS observations. From these elements air temperature is used for comparison with the satellite-based kinetic temperature, and also as the main components of the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), de-rived to characterise usefulness of the kinetic temperature. Our first aim is to specify detailed relationship between the two temperatures consider-ing the seasonal and diurnal cycles and synoptic situation. This comparison is also performed by using the PET to establish which kind of temperature reminds this human bioclimatic in-dex better. If we could establish effective relationships with the synoptic situations (or weather types) we could use them in two further applications. The first one is the everyday forecasting of dangerous situations within the

  14. 1993 Pacific Northwest Loads and Resources Study, Pacific Northwest Economic and Electricity Use Forecast. Technical Appendix: Volume 1.

    SciTech Connect

    1994-02-01

    This publication documents the load forecast scenarios and assumptions used to prepare BPA's Whitebook. It is divided into: intoduction, summary of 1993 Whitebook electricity demand forecast, conservation in the load forecast, projection of medium case electricity sales and underlying drivers, residential sector forecast, commercial sector forecast, industrial sector forecast, non-DSI industrial forecast, direct service industry forecast, and irrigation forecast. Four appendices are included: long-term forecasts, LTOUT forecast, rates and fuel price forecasts, and forecast ranges-calculations.

  15. Evaluation of health plan member use of an online prescription drug price comparison tool.

    PubMed

    Carroll, Norman V; Mitchell, Matthew P; Cannon, H Eric; York, Bryan W York; Oscar, Robert S

    2010-01-01

    Health plans have implemented tiered copayment systems to incentivize members to use less expensive medications. However, members need drug price information to make comparisons among therapeutic alternatives. Many health plans and pharmacy benefit management companies have implemented online prescription drug price comparison tools to provide such information. There has been little published evaluation of these tools. To evaluate use of an online price comparison tool- MyPharmacyTools (MPT)- by the measures of (a) the extent to which the tool was used, (b) changes in use over the first year after implementation, and (c) the types of members who were most likely to use the tool. Data were provided by a 500,000-member integrated health plan with approximately 156,250 enrolled families. The sample included only families with continuous eligibility for all members from July 1, 2006, through June 30, 2008; use of 1 of 7 common copayment structures; and use of the pharmacy benefit in every quarter of the study period. Data collected on each member, using pharmacy claims for the time period July 1, 2007, through June 30, 2008, included annual drug costs (total, out-of-pocket, plan-paid, and mail order) and number of unique drugs and unique generic drugs taken during the third quarter of 2007. Data collected also included whether the member had each of several selected chronic diseases (as inferred from drug claims for the third quarter of 2007) and demographics. Age, gender, and family size were taken from eligibility files. Other demographic data were imputed to members from the demographics of the ZIP code in which they resided. MPT was made available to members on July 1, 2007. Use of MPT was measured as the number of times members logged into the site for each quarter during the subsequent year. Statistical analyses were conducted at the family rather than at the individual level, and families were defined as users if any family member used MPT at least once during

  16. Comparison of two water pricing policies in hydro-economic modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riegels, N.; Pulido Velazquez, M.; Doulgeris, C.; Sturm, V.; Jensen, R.; Møller, F.; Bauer-Gottwein, P.

    2012-04-01

    A study is presented comparing two different water pricing policies that are applied to wholesale water users throughout a river basin. The purpose of the study is to test policies that meet some of the water pricing objectives of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD). In the first policy, a single volumetric water price is applied to all wholesale water users throughout a case study river basin located in northern Greece. The same price is applied consistently to all surface water and groundwater users regardless of water use type and does not vary in space or time. In the second policy surface water is priced at a uniform volumetric price, while groundwater is priced using the price of energy as a surrogate for a volumetric water price. The policies are compared using a hydro-economic modeling approach in which wholesale water users are assumed to respond to water price changes according to microeconomic theory. A hydrological model of the case study river basin is used to estimate the impact of water use changes on river flow patterns, which are then used to assess the ecological status of the basin. WFD ecological status requirements are imposed as a constraint in the model, and an optimization approach is used to identify prices that meet the WFD requirements while minimizing opportunity costs (in terms of total welfare losses). Model results suggest that there is little difference between the two approaches in terms of the total opportunity costs of meeting the ecological status requirements of the WFD. However, the distribution of opportunity costs is different, with the second approach reducing the economic impact on producers of low value crops and small urban/domestic users. Because growers of low value crops will suffer the most from water price increases, the second policy offers the advantage of reducing this burden. In addition, because of difficulties associated with monitoring groundwater use, the second policy may be easier to

  17. Comparison of pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement systems in Turkey and certain EU countries.

    PubMed

    Atikeler, Enver Kagan; Özçelikay, Gulbin

    2016-01-01

    Recently, the need for health care services has increased gradually and the limitations in sources allocated for this area have been recognized. Moving from this fact, it has gained a supreme importance to determine what health programs or technologies will be given priority. According to Danzon (Reference pricing: theory and evidence, reference pricing and pharmaceutical policy: perspectives on economics and innovation, springer, New York, pp 86-126, 2001), arrangements towards controlling the expenses through price and profit controls, reimbursement methods and incentives have recently gained wide currency. This present study examines; along with the current situation in Turkey, pharmaceutical pricing methods, reimbursement methods and basic health indicators, within the scope of changing pharmaceutical policies, in Turkey, the EU countries which Turkey takes as reference and the United Kingdom, the implementations of which are of utmost importance for other countries. Upon the research conducted, it was detected that the pharmaceutical pricing in Turkey has been performed on the basis of the reference pricing system that takes Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece and France as reference. The regulations regarding the reimbursement process are determined by SSI. For Turkey's case; pricing and reimbursement system has been changed numerous times and the discount rates has incrementally risen. In pricing, on the other hand, during this period companies faced with difficulties in economic terms because of the fact that price discount of high rates are implemented over the reference price and that the European currency of Euro is determined as 70% of previous year average Euro sales rate which is 2,1166 for the year 2016. Each country has specific regulations and pricing and reimbursement policies of medicines based on economic situation, reimbursement methods and market size. The aim of pricing and reimbursement systems are reaching more efficient and sustainable

  18. The evolving price of household LED lamps: Recent trends and historical comparisons for the US market

    SciTech Connect

    Gerke, Brian F.; Ngo, Allison T.; Alstone, Andrea L.; Fisseha, Kibret S.

    2014-10-14

    In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the US market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.

  19. Foreign currency rate forecasting using neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandya, Abhijit S.; Kondo, Tadashi; Talati, Amit; Jayadevappa, Suryaprasad

    2000-03-01

    Neural networks are increasingly being used as a forecasting tool in many forecasting problems. This paper discusses the application of neural networks in predicting daily foreign exchange rates between the USD, GBP as well as DEM. We approach the problem from a time-series analysis framework - where future exchange rates are forecasted solely using past exchange rates. This relies on the belief that the past prices and future prices are very close related, and interdependent. We present the result of training a neural network with historical USD-GBP data. The methodology used in explained, as well as the training process. We discuss the selection of inputs to the network, and present a comparison of using the actual exchange rates and the exchange rate differences as inputs. Price and rate differences are the preferred way of training neural network in financial applications. Results of both approaches are present together for comparison. We show that the network is able to learn the trends in the exchange rate movements correctly, and present the results of the prediction over several periods of time.

  20. HI-CLASS on AEOS: a large-aperture laser radar for space surveillance/situational awareness investigations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovacs, Mark A.; Dryden, Gordon L.; Pohle, Richard H.; Ayers, Kirstie; Carreras, Richard A.; Crawford, Linda L.; Taft, Russell

    2001-12-01

    The Air Force Research Laboratory/Directed Energy Directorate (AFRL/DE) via the ALVA (Applications of Lidars for Vehicles with Analysis) program installed in late 2000 a wideband, 12 J 15 Hz CO2 laser radar (ladar) on the 3.67 meter aperture AEOS (Advanced Electro-Optics System) telescope. This system is part of the Maui Space Surveillance System (MSSS), on the summit of Haleakala, Maui, HI. This ladar adopts the technology successfully demonstrated by the first generation HI-CLASS (High Performance CO2) Ladar Surveillance Sensor) operating on the nearby 0.6 meter aperture Laser Beam Director (LBD) and developed under the Field Ladar Demonstration program, jointly sponsored by AFRL/DE and the Army's Space and Missile Defense Command. The moderate power (approximately 180 watts) HI-CLASS/AEOS system generates multiple, coherent waveforms for precision satellite tracking and characterization of space objects for 1 m2 targets at ranges out to 10,000 km. This system also will be used to track space objects smaller than30 cm at ranges to 2,000 km. A third application of this system is to provide data for developing satellite identification, characterization, health and status techniques. This paper will discuss the operating characteristics and innovative features of the new system. The paper will also review recent results in support of AF needs, demonstrations, experiments, as well as planned activities that directly support applications in the DoD, scientific, and commercial arenas.

  1. Monthly stumpage prices for the Pacific Northwest.

    Treesearch

    Richard W. Haynes

    1991-01-01

    Seasonal variation is found in monthly stumpage price data. Seasonal adjustments indicate that monthly adjustments improve the utility of estimates of monthly stumpage prices. Comparisons of adjusted and unadjusted prices suggest that the unadjusted price series are reasonably robust.

  2. A comparison of cloud microphysical quantities with forecasts from cloud prediction models

    SciTech Connect

    Dunn, M.; Jensen, M.; Hogan, R.; O’Connor, E.; Huang, D.

    2010-03-15

    Numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, NCEP) are evaluated using ARM observational data collected at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Cloud forecasts generated by the models are compared with cloud microphysical quantities, retrieved using a variety of parameterizations. Information gained from this comparison will be utilized during the FASTER project, as models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce fast physical processes detected in the observations. Here the model performance is quantified against the observations through a statistical analysis. Observations from remote sensing instruments (radar, lidar, radiometer and radiosonde) are used to derive the cloud microphysical quantities: ice water content, liquid water content, ice effective radius and liquid effective radius. Unfortunately, discrepancies in the derived quantities arise when different retrieval schemes are applied to the observations. The uncertainty inherent in retrieving the microphysical quantities using various retrievals is estimated from the range of output microphysical values. ARM microphysical retrieval schemes (Microbase, Mace) are examined along with the CloudNet retrieval processing of data from the ARM sites for this purpose. Through the interfacing of CloudNet and “ARM” processing schemes an ARMNET product is produced and employed as accepted observations in the assessment of cloud model predictions.

  3. 76 FR 22324 - Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for Residential Clothes Dryers and...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-21

    ... utilize forecasts of energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth... energy prices and housing starts from the AEO2010 Reference case, Low Economic Growth case, and High...; ] DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY 10 CFR Part 430 RIN 1904-AA89 Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards...

  4. Comparison of two analog-based downscaling methods for regional reference evapotranspiration forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Di; Martinez, Christopher J.

    2012-12-01

    SummaryThe objective of this study was to compare the performance of natural analog (NA) and constructed analog (CA) methods to produce both probabilistic and deterministic downscaled daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts in the southeastern United States. The 1-15 day, 15-member ETo forecasts were produced from 1979 to 2009 using the Penman-Monteith equation and a forecast analog approach with a combination of the Global Forecast System (GFS) reforecasts and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 climatology, and were downscaled using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The Pearson correlation coefficient (R), mean squared error skill score (MSESS), and Bias were used to evaluate the skill of downscaled deterministic forecasts. The Linear Error in Probability Space (LEPS) skill score, Brier Skill Score (BSS), relative operating characteristic, and reliability diagrams were used to evaluate the skill of downscaled probabilistic forecasts. Overall, CA showed slightly higher skill than NA in terms of the metrics for deterministic forecasts, while for probabilistic forecasts NA showed higher skill than CA regarding the BSS in five categories (terciles, and 10th and 90th percentiles) and lower skill than CA regarding the LEPS skill score. Both CA and NA produced skillful deterministic results in the first 3 lead days, while the skill was higher for CA than for NA. Probabilistic NA forecasts exhibited higher resolution and reliability than CA, likely due to a larger ensemble size. Forecasts by both methods showed the lowest skill in the Florida peninsula and in mountainous areas, likely due to the fact that these features were not well-resolved in the model forecast.

  5. A price comparison of recently launched proprietary pharmaceuticals in the UK and the US

    PubMed Central

    Jørgensen, Jesper; Kefalas, Panos

    2016-01-01

    Objective To explore the relationship between prices charged by manufacturers of proprietary pharmaceuticals in the US and in the UK in recent years (2013–2016), expressed as a multiplier, and to detail to what extent this relationship differs for high-cost therapies used in smaller patient populations, as compared to lower-cost drugs. Methodology Therapies assessed by the Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) in the UK between 1 January 2013 and 1 June 2016 were identified; only in-patent therapies were included in the analysis (to avoid the impact of price erosion post patent expiry); results were grouped according to annual cost per patient (whether considered high-cost, i.e., >£2,500 per patient per year, or not) and the size of the UK target population [whether considered orphan (<32,000 patients per year), ultra-orphan (<1,000 patients per year), or not]. Publicly listed prices were obtained in the US and UK and were adjusted where necessary to estimate the prices charged by manufacturers in the respective countries. The difference in price (per unit of the same strength and formulation) was calculated as a multiplier between the US and UK prices for each of the therapies identified. Results Based on the methodological approach described, 88 therapies were identified and included in the analysis. The multiplier between the US and UK prices was 3.64 for therapies with an estimated annual cost <£2,500; this was reduced to 1.90 for higher-cost therapies. A downward trend was also evident in the subgroup analysis of the higher-cost therapies; as the estimated target patient populations reduced from >32,000 down to <1,000, the US/UK price multipliers reduced from 2.13 for the former to 1.48 for the latter. Conclusion Although pharmaceutical prices have been found to be on average substantially higher in the US compared to the UK, our findings suggest that this price discrepancy is smaller for higher-cost therapies targeting small patient populations

  6. Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B.; Miettinen, J.; Holttinen, H.; Gomez-Lozaro, E.; Cutululis, N.; Litong-Palima, M.; Sorensen, P.; Lovholm, A.; Berge, E.; Dobschinski, J.

    2013-10-01

    This presentation summarizes the work to investigate the uncertainty in wind forecasting at different times of year and compare wind forecast errors in different power systems using large-scale wind power prediction data from six countries: the United States, Finland, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and Germany.

  7. A Comparison of Conventional Linear Regression Methods and Neural Networks for Forecasting Educational Spending.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baker, Bruce D.; Richards, Craig E.

    1999-01-01

    Applies neural network methods for forecasting 1991-95 per-pupil expenditures in U.S. public elementary and secondary schools. Forecasting models included the National Center for Education Statistics' multivariate regression model and three neural architectures. Regarding prediction accuracy, neural network results were comparable or superior to…

  8. The Frozen Price Game

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alden, Lori

    2003-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the educational frozen price game she developed to teach the basic economic principle of price allocation. In addition to demonstrating the advantages of price allocation, the game also illustrates such concepts as opportunity costs, cost benefit comparisons, and the trade-off between efficiency and equity.…

  9. Comparison of spatial interpolation methods for gridded bias removal in surface temperature forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Azadi, Majid; Rahmani, Morteza

    2017-08-01

    All numerical weather prediction (NWP) models inherently have substantial biases, especially in the forecast of near-surface weather variables. Statistical methods can be used to remove the systematic error based on historical bias data at observation stations. However, many end users of weather forecasts need bias corrected forecasts at locations that scarcely have any historical bias data. To circumvent this limitation, the bias of surface temperature forecasts on a regular grid covering Iran is removed, by using the information available at observation stations in the vicinity of any given grid point. To this end, the running mean error method is first used to correct the forecasts at observation stations, then four interpolation methods including inverse distance squared weighting with constant lapse rate (IDSW-CLR), Kriging with constant lapse rate (Kriging-CLR), gradient inverse distance squared with linear lapse rate (GIDS-LR), and gradient inverse distance squared with lapse rate determined by classification and regression tree (GIDS-CART), are employed to interpolate the bias corrected forecasts at neighboring observation stations to any given location. The results show that all four interpolation methods used do reduce the model error significantly, but Kriging-CLR has better performance than the other methods. For Kriging-CLR, root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were decreased by 26% and 29%, respectively, as compared to the raw forecasts. It is found also, that after applying any of the proposed methods, unlike the raw forecasts, the bias corrected forecasts do not show spatial or temporal dependency.

  10. Performance Comparison of Attribute Set Reduction Algorithms in Stock Price Prediction - A Case Study on Indian Stock Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sivakumar, P. Bagavathi; Mohandas, V. P.

    Stock price prediction and stock trend prediction are the two major research problems of financial time series analysis. In this work, performance comparison of various attribute set reduction algorithms were made for short term stock price prediction. Forward selection, backward elimination, optimized selection, optimized selection based on brute force, weight guided and optimized selection based on the evolutionary principle and strategy was used. Different selection schemes and cross over types were explored. To supplement learning and modeling, support vector machine was also used in combination. The algorithms were applied on a real time Indian stock data namely CNX Nifty. The experimental study was conducted using the open source data mining tool Rapidminer. The performance was compared in terms of root mean squared error, squared error and execution time. The obtained results indicates the superiority of evolutionary algorithms and the optimize selection algorithm based on evolutionary principles outperforms others.

  11. A retrospective comparison of model-based forecasted PM2.5 concentrations with measurements.

    PubMed

    Doraiswamy, Prakash; Hogrefe, Christian; Hao, Winston; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Sistla, Gopal

    2010-11-01

    This study presents an assessment of the performance of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model in forecasting daily PM2.5 (particulate matter < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) mass concentrations over most of the eastern United States for a 2-yr period from June 14, 2006 to June 13, 2008. Model predictions were compared with filter-based and continuous measurements of PM2.5 mass and species on a seasonal and regional basis. Results indicate an underprediction of PM2.5 mass in spring and summer, resulting from under-predictions in sulfate and total carbon concentrations. During winter, the model overpredicted mass concentrations, mostly at the urban sites in the northeastern United States because of overpredictions in unspeciated PM2.5 (suggesting possible overestimation of primary emissions) and sulfate. A comparison of observed and predicted diurnal profiles of PM2.5 mass at five sites in the domain showed significant discrepancies. Sulfate diurnal profiles agreed in shape across three sites in the southern portion of the domain but differed at two sites in the northern portion of the domain. Predicted organic carbon (OC) profiles were similar in shape to mass, suggesting that discrepancies in mass profiles probably resulted from the underprediction in OC. The diurnal profiles at a highly urbanized site in New York City suggested that the overpredictions at that site might be resulting from overpredictions during the morning and evening hours, displayed as sharp peaks in predicted profiles. An examination of the predicted planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights also showed possible issues in the modeling of PBL.

  12. An Observational Case Study of Persistent Fog and Comparison with an Ensemble Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Jeremy; Porson, Aurore; Lock, Adrian

    2015-05-01

    We present a study of a persistent case of fog and use the observations to evaluate the UK Met Office ensemble model. The fog appeared to form initially in association with small patches of low-level stratus and spread rapidly across southern England during 11 December 2012, persisting for 24 h. The low visibility and occurrence of fog associated with the event was poorly forecast. Observations show that the surprisingly rapid spreading of the layer was due to a circulation at the fog edge, whereby cold cloudy air subsided into and mixed with warmer adjacent clear air. The resulting air was saturated, and hence the fog layer grew rapidly outwards from its edge. Measurements of fog-droplet deposition made overnight show that an average of 12 g m h was deposited but that the liquid water content remained almost constant, indicating that further liquid was condensing at a similar rate to the deposition, most likely due to the slow cooling. The circulation at the fog edge was also present during its dissipation, by which time the fog top had lowered by 150 m. During this period the continuing circulation at the fog edge, and increasing wind shear at fog top, acted to dissipate the fog by creating mixing with, by then, the drier adjacent and overlying air. Comparisons with a new, high resolution Met Office ensemble model show that this type of case remains challenging to simulate. Most ensemble members successfully simulated the formation and persistence of low stratus cloud in the region, but produced too much cloud initially overnight, which created a warm bias. During the daytime, ensemble predictions that had produced fog lifted it into low stratus, whilst in reality the fog remained present all day. Various aspects of the model performance are discussed further.

  13. Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin: a comparison of statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seibert, Mathias; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

    2017-03-01

    The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Niño and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42 % explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics

  14. Evaluation and comparison of O3 and PM10 forecasts of ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flandorfer, Claudia; Hirtl, Marcus

    2017-04-01

    ZAMG runs two models for Air-Quality forecasts operationally: ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem. ALARO-CAMx is a combination of the meteorological model ALARO and the photochemical dispersion model CAMx and is operated at ZAMG by order of the regional governments since 2005. The emphasis of this modeling system is to predict ozone peaks in the North-east Austrian flatlands. Two modeling domains are used with the highest resolution (5 km) in the Alpine region. Various new features have been implemented in the model in the past to improve the daily forecasts, e.g. data assimilation of O3 and PM10 observations from the Austrian measurement network (with optimum interpolation technique), MACC-II boundary conditions and the combination of high resolved emission inventories for Austria with TNO and EMEP data. The biogenic emissions are provided by the SMOKE model. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 48 hours. The second model which is operational is the on-line coupled model WRF-Chem. Meteorology is simulated simultaneously with the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation as well as the fate of trace gases and aerosols. 2 domains are used for the simulations. The mother domain covers Europe with a resolution of 12 km. The inner domain includes the Alpine region with a horizontal resolution of 4km. The model runs 2 times per day for a period of 72 hours and is initialized with ECMWF forecasts. The evaluation of both models is conducted for the months January to September 2016 with the main focus on the forecasts of ozone. The measurements of the Air-Quality stations are compared with the area forecasts for every province of Austria. Besides the evaluation a comparison of the forecasts of ALARO-CAMx and WRF-Chem is done. The summer 2016 was one of the 11th warmest summers since the beginning of the meteorological measurements in Austria, but one of the 15th rainiest summers, too. Due to the meteorological conditions, only two exceedances of the information

  15. Activity-based costing for pathology examinations and comparison with the current pricing system in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Ergün, Ferda A K; Ağirbaş, Ismail; Kuzu, Işınsu

    2013-01-01

    To demonstrate the real cost data of the pathology examinations by using the activity-based costing method and to contribute to the financial planning of the departments, health managers and also the social security institution. Forty-four examinations selected from the Healthcare Implementation Notification system list and performed at the Ankara University Faculty of Medicine Pathology Department during September 2010 were studied. The analysis and the real cost calculations were done according to the duration of the procedures. Calculated costs were compared with the Healthcare Implementation Notification system and Medicare price lists. The costs of the pathology tests listed within the same pricing levels in the Healthcare Implementation Notification system list showed great differences. The minimum and maximum costs in level 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 15,98-80,15 TL, 15,95-258,59 TL, 42,38- 236,87 TL, and 124,42-406,76 TL, respectively. Medicare price levels were more consistent with the real costs of the examinations compared to the Healthcare Implementation Notification system price list. The prices of the pathology examination listed at different levels in the Healthcare Implementation Notification system lists do not cover the real costs of the work done. The principal parameters of Activity-Based Costing system are more suitable for making the most realistic cost categorization. Although the prices could differ between countries, the Medicare system categories are more realistic than the Healthcare Implementation Notification system. The Healthcare Implementation Notification system list needs to be revised in order to reflect the real costs of the pathology examinations.

  16. The Value of Renewable Energy as a Hedge Against Fuel Price Risk: Analytic Contributions from Economic and Finance Theory

    SciTech Connect

    Bolinger, Mark A; Wiser, Ryan

    2008-09-15

    gas in the United States over a relatively brief period. Perhaps of most concern is that this dramatic price increase was largely unforeseen. Figure 2 compares the EIA's natural gas wellhead price forecast from each year's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) going back to 1985 against the average US wellhead price that actually transpired. As shown, our forecasting abilities have proven rather dismal over time, as over-forecasts made in the late 1980's eventually yielded to under-forecasts that have persisted to this day. This historical experience demonstrates that little weight should be placed on any one forecast of future natural gas prices, and that a broad range of future price conditions ought to be considered in planning and investment decisions. Against this backdrop of high, volatile, and unpredictable natural gas prices, increasing the market penetration of renewable generation such as wind, solar, and geothermal power may provide economic benefits to ratepayers by displacing gas-fired generation. These benefits may manifest themselves in several ways. First, the displacement of natural gas-fired generation by increased renewable generation reduces ratepayer exposure to natural gas price risk--i.e., the risk that future gas prices (and by extension future electricity prices) may end up markedly different than expected. Second, this displacement reduces demand for natural gas among gas-fired generators, which, all else equal, will put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Lower natural gas prices in turn benefit both electric ratepayers and other end-users of natural gas. Using analytic approaches that build upon, yet differ from, the past work of others, including Awerbuch (1993, 1994, 2003), Kahn and Stoft (1993), and Humphreys and McClain (1998), this chapter explores each of these two potential 'hedging' benefits of renewable electricity. Though we do not seek to judge whether these two specific benefits outweigh any incremental cost of renewable energy

  17. Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: a comparison of statistical stylized facts.

    PubMed

    Parisi, Daniel R; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

  18. Financial price dynamics and pedestrian counterflows: A comparison of statistical stylized facts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parisi, Daniel R.; Sornette, Didier; Helbing, Dirk

    2013-01-01

    We propose and document the evidence for an analogy between the dynamics of granular counterflows in the presence of bottlenecks or restrictions and financial price formation processes. Using extensive simulations, we find that the counterflows of simulated pedestrians through a door display eight stylized facts observed in financial markets when the density around the door is compared with the logarithm of the price. Finding so many stylized facts is very rare indeed among all agent-based models of financial markets. The stylized properties are present when the agents in the pedestrian model are assumed to display a zero-intelligent behavior. If agents are given decision-making capacity and adapt to partially follow the majority, periods of herding behavior may additionally occur. This generates the very slow decay of the autocorrelation of absolute return due to an intermittent dynamics. Our findings suggest that the stylized facts in the fluctuations of the financial prices result from a competition of two groups with opposite interests in the presence of a constraint funneling the flow of transactions to a narrow band of prices with limited liquidity.

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.; Hoeth, Brian; Blottman, Peter F.

    2007-01-01

    Mesoscale weather conditions can significantly affect the space launch and landing operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). During the summer months, land-sea interactions that occur across KSC and CCAFS lead to the formation of a sea breeze, which can then spawn deep convection. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG). The main challenge is that a "GO" forecast for thunderstorms and precipitation at the Shuttle Landing Facility is required at the 90 minute deorbit decision for End Of Mission (EOM) and at the 30 minute Return To Launch Site (RTLS) decision. Convective initiation, timing, and mode also present a forecast challenge for the NWS in Melbourne, FL (MLB). The NWS MLB issues such tactical forecast information as Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF5), Spot Forecasts for fire weather and hazardous materials incident support, and severe/hazardous weather Watches, Warnings, and Advisories. Lastly, these forecasting challenges can also affect the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), which provides comprehensive weather forecasts for shuttle launch, as well as ground operations, at KSC and CCAFS. The need for accurate mesoscale model forecasts to aid in their decision making is crucial. This study specifically addresses the skill of different model configurations in forecasting warm season convective initiation. Numerous factors influence the development of convection over the Florida peninsula. These factors include sea breezes, river and lake breezes, the prevailing low-level flow, and convergent flow due to convex coastlines that enhance the sea breeze. The interaction of these processes produces the warm season convective patterns seen over the Florida peninsula. However, warm season convection remains one of the most poorly forecast meteorological parameters. To determine which

  20. Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billa, Lawal; Assilzadeh, Hamid; Mansor, Shattri; Mahmud, Ahmed; Ghazali, Abdul

    2011-09-01

    Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3-12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R2 = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R2 = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R2 = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through `Nowcasting', thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.

  1. Use of comparative effectiveness research in drug coverage and pricing decisions: a six-country comparison.

    PubMed

    Sorenson, Corinna

    2010-07-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has assumed an increasing role in drug coverage and, in some cases, pricing decisions in Europe, as decision-makers seek to obtain better value for money. This issue brief comparatively examines the use of CER across six countries--Denmark, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden. With CER gaining traction in the United States, these international experiences offer insights and potential lessons. Investing in CER can help address the current gap in publicly available, credible, up-to-date, and scientifically based comparative information on the effectiveness of drugs and other health interventions. This information can be used to base coverage and pricing decisions on evidence of value, thereby facilitating access to and public and private investment in the most beneficial new drugs and technologies. In turn, use of CER creates incentives for more efficient, high-quality health care and encourages development of innovative products that offer measurable value to patients.

  2. Comparison of Solar and Wind Power Output and Correlation with Real-Time Pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoepfl, Kathryn E.; Compaan, Alvin D.; Solocha, Andrew

    2011-03-01

    This study presents a method that can be used to determine the least volatile power output of a wind and solar hybrid energy system in which wind and solar systems have the same peak power. Hourly data for wind and PV systems in Northwest Ohio are used to show that a combination of both types of sustainable energy sources produces a more stable power output and would be more valuable to the grid than either individually. This method could be used to determine the ideal ratio in any part of the country and should help convince electric utility companies to bring more renewable generation online. This study also looks at real-time market pricing and how each system (solar, wind, and hybrid) correlates with 2009 hourly pricing from the Midwest Interconnect. KEH acknowledges support from the NSF-REU grant PHY-1004649 to the Univ. of Toledo and Garland Energy Systems/Ohio Department of Development.

  3. Comparison of biophysical and satellite predictors for wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolotii, A.; Kussul, N.; Shelestov, A.; Skakun, S.; Yailymov, B.; Basarab, R.; Lavreniuk, M.; Oliinyk, T.; Ostapenko, V.

    2015-04-01

    Winter wheat crop yield forecasting at national, regional and local scales is an extremely important task. This paper aims at assessing the efficiency (in terms of prediction error minimization) of satellite and biophysical model based predictors assimilation into winter wheat crop yield forecasting models at different scales (region, county and field) for one of the regions in central part of Ukraine. Vegetation index NDVI, as well as different biophysical parameters (LAI and fAPAR) derived from satellite data and WOFOST crop growth model are considered as predictors of winter wheat crop yield forecasting model. Due to very short time series of reliable statistics (since 2000) we consider single factor linear regression. It is shown that biophysical parameters (fAPAR and LAI) are more preferable to be used as predictors in crop yield forecasting regression models at each scale. Correspondent models possess much better statistical properties and are more reliable than NDVI based model. The most accurate result in current study has been obtained for LAI values derived from SPOT-VGT (at 1 km resolution) on county level. At field level, a regression model based on satellite derived LAI significantly outperforms the one based on LAI simulated with WOFOST.

  4. Comparison of Short-term and Long-term Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2004-12-01

    Many earthquakes are triggered in part by preceding events. Aftershocks are the most obvious examples, but many large earthquakes are preceded by smaller ones. The large fluctuations of seismicity rate due to earthquake interactions thus provide a way to improve earthquake forecasting significantly. We have developed a model to estimate daily earthquake probabilities in Southern California, using the Epidemic Type Earthquake Sequence model [Kagan and Knopoff, 1987; Ogata, 1988]. The forecasted seismicity rate is the sum of a constant external loading and of the aftershocks of all past earthquakes. The background rate is estimated by smoothing past seismicity. Each earthquake triggers aftershocks with a rate that increases exponentially with its magnitude and which decreases with time following Omori's law. We use an isotropic kernel to model the spatial distribution of aftershocks for small (M≤5.5) mainshocks, and a smoothing of the location of early aftershocks for larger mainshocks. The model also assumes that all earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with a unifom b-value. We use a maximum likelihood method to estimate the model parameters and tests the short-term and long-term forecasts. A retrospective test using a daily update of the forecasts between 1985/1/1 and 2004/3/10 shows that the short-term model decreases the uncertainty of an earthquake occurrence by a factor of about 10.

  5. Comparison of Ensemble Mean and Deterministic Forecasts for Long-Range Airlift Fuel Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-03-27

    fluctuations of the general circulation. WMO -IUGG Symp. on Research and Development Aspects of Long- range Forecasting 66, World Meteorological...Organization, WMO . Lorenz, E., 1993: The Essence of Chaos. University of Washington Press. McLay, J. and C. H. Bishop, 2010: A local formulation of the ensemble

  6. A comparison of the stochastic and machine learning approaches in hydrologic time series forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, T.; Joo, K.; Seo, J.; Heo, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrologic time series forecasting is an essential task in water resources management and it becomes more difficult due to the complexity of runoff process. Traditional stochastic models such as ARIMA family has been used as a standard approach in time series modeling and forecasting of hydrological variables. Due to the nonlinearity in hydrologic time series data, machine learning approaches has been studied with the advantage of discovering relevant features in a nonlinear relation among variables. This study aims to compare the predictability between the traditional stochastic model and the machine learning approach. Seasonal ARIMA model was used as the traditional time series model, and Random Forest model which consists of decision tree and ensemble method using multiple predictor approach was applied as the machine learning approach. In the application, monthly inflow data from 1986 to 2015 of Chungju dam in South Korea were used for modeling and forecasting. In order to evaluate the performances of the used models, one step ahead and multi-step ahead forecasting was applied. Root mean squared error and mean absolute error of two models were compared.

  7. Comparison of Filtering Methods for the Modeling and Retrospective Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.). Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters—a basic particle filter (PF) with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF), and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC)—and three ensemble filters—the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF), and the rank histogram filter (RHF)—were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003–2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1–5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in the

  8. Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2014-04-01

    A variety of filtering methods enable the recursive estimation of system state variables and inference of model parameters. These methods have found application in a range of disciplines and settings, including engineering design and forecasting, and, over the last two decades, have been applied to infectious disease epidemiology. For any system of interest, the ideal filter depends on the nonlinearity and complexity of the model to which it is applied, the quality and abundance of observations being entrained, and the ultimate application (e.g. forecast, parameter estimation, etc.). Here, we compare the performance of six state-of-the-art filter methods when used to model and forecast influenza activity. Three particle filters--a basic particle filter (PF) with resampling and regularization, maximum likelihood estimation via iterated filtering (MIF), and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC)--and three ensemble filters--the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF), and the rank histogram filter (RHF)--were used in conjunction with a humidity-forced susceptible-infectious-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model and weekly estimates of influenza incidence. The modeling frameworks, first validated with synthetic influenza epidemic data, were then applied to fit and retrospectively forecast the historical incidence time series of seven influenza epidemics during 2003-2012, for 115 cities in the United States. Results suggest that when using the SIRS model the ensemble filters and the basic PF are more capable of faithfully recreating historical influenza incidence time series, while the MIF and pMCMC do not perform as well for multimodal outbreaks. For forecast of the week with the highest influenza activity, the accuracies of the six model-filter frameworks are comparable; the three particle filters perform slightly better predicting peaks 1-5 weeks in the future; the ensemble filters are more accurate predicting peaks in the past.

  9. Proceedings: Eleventh forecasting symposium. Forecasting in a competitive electricity market

    SciTech Connect

    Vogt, T.; Ignelzi, P.

    1998-10-01

    EPRI`s Eleventh Forecasting Symposium: ``Forecasting in a Competitive Electricity Market`` was held in Arlington, Virginia, in November 1997. This proceedings documents the symposium`s wide variety of topics, ranging from very-short-term operations issues to mid-term market planning issues. Speakers described the forecasting practices of other industries, predicted forecasting directions in the electric power industry; related their experiences with new forecasting approaches; and suggested further enhancements to forecasting methods, tools, and data. The objectives of the symposium were to explore the expanding roles of forecasting in a competitive market, to exchange information about forecasting techniques under development, and to discuss the forecasting techniques currently used by the electric power industry in and outside the US and in other industries. The 30 papers are arranged under the following topical sections: restructuring and regulatory issues--implications for forecasting; forecasting experiences in other industries; operations-related forecasting; data warehousing and database marketing; forecasting and risk management; understanding and predicting market prices; forecasting methods for the new environment; predicting customer response; and symposium wrap-up.

  10. The price of a drink: levels of consumption and price paid per unit of alcohol by Edinburgh's ill drinkers with a comparison to wider alcohol sales in Scotland.

    PubMed

    Black, Heather; Gill, Jan; Chick, Jonathan

    2011-04-01

    To compare alcohol purchasing and consumption by ill drinkers in Edinburgh with wider alcohol sales in Scotland. Cross-sectional. Two hospitals in Edinburgh in 2008/09. A total of 377 patients with serious alcohol problems; two-thirds were in-patients with medical, surgical or psychiatric problems due to alcohol; one-third were out-patients. Last week's or typical weekly consumption of alcohol: type, brand, units (1 UK unit 8 g ethanol), purchase place and price. Patients consumed mean 197.7 UK units/week. The mean price paid per unit was £0.43 (lowest £0.09/unit) (£1 = 1.6 US$ or 1.2€), which is below the mean unit price, £0.71 paid in Scotland in 2008. Of units consumed, 70.3% were sold at or below £0.40/unit (mid-range of price models proposed for minimum pricing legislation by the Scottish Government), and 83% at or below £0.50/unit proposed by the Chief Medical Officer of England. The lower the price paid per unit, the more units a patient consumed. A continuous increase in unit price from lower to higher social status, ranked according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (based on postcode), was not seen; patients residing in postcodes in the mid-quintile paid the highest price per unit. Cheapness was quoted commonly as a reason for beverage choice; ciders, especially 'white' cider, and vodka were, at off-sales, cheapest per unit. Stealing alcohol or drinking alcohol substitutes was only very rarely reported. Because patients with serious alcohol problems tend to purchase very cheap alcohol, elimination of the cheapest sales by minimum price or other legislation might reduce their consumption. It is unknown whether proposed price legislation in Scotland will encourage patients with serious alcohol problems to start stealing alcohol or drinking substitutes or will reduce the recruitment of new drinkers with serious alcohol problems and produce predicted longer-term gains in health and social wellbeing. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010

  11. The price of a drink: levels of consumption and price paid per unit of alcohol by Edinburgh's ill drinkers with a comparison to wider alcohol sales in Scotland

    PubMed Central

    Black, Heather; Gill, Jan; Chick, Jonathan

    2011-01-01

    Aim To compare alcohol purchasing and consumption by ill drinkers in Edinburgh with wider alcohol sales in Scotland. Design Cross-sectional. Setting Two hospitals in Edinburgh in 2008/09. Participants A total of 377 patients with serious alcohol problems; two-thirds were in-patients with medical, surgical or psychiatric problems due to alcohol; one-third were out-patients. Measurements Last week's or typical weekly consumption of alcohol: type, brand, units (1 UK unit 8 g ethanol), purchase place and price. Findings Patients consumed mean 197.7 UK units/week. The mean price paid per unit was £0.43 (lowest £0.09/unit) (£1 = 1.6 US$ or 1.2€), which is below the mean unit price, £0.71 paid in Scotland in 2008. Of units consumed, 70.3% were sold at or below £0.40/unit (mid-range of price models proposed for minimum pricing legislation by the Scottish Government), and 83% at or below £0.50/unit proposed by the Chief Medical Officer of England. The lower the price paid per unit, the more units a patient consumed. A continuous increase in unit price from lower to higher social status, ranked according to the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (based on postcode), was not seen; patients residing in postcodes in the mid-quintile paid the highest price per unit. Cheapness was quoted commonly as a reason for beverage choice; ciders, especially ‘white’ cider, and vodka were, at off-sales, cheapest per unit. Stealing alcohol or drinking alcohol substitutes was only very rarely reported. Conclusions Because patients with serious alcohol problems tend to purchase very cheap alcohol, elimination of the cheapest sales by minimum price or other legislation might reduce their consumption. It is unknown whether proposed price legislation in Scotland will encourage patients with serious alcohol problems to start stealing alcohol or drinking substitutes or will reduce the recruitment of new drinkers with serious alcohol problems and produce predicted longer-term gains in

  12. A quantitative comparison of precipitation forecasts between the storm-scale numerical weather prediction model and auto-nowcast system in Jiangsu, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Gaili; Yang, Ji; Wang, Dan; Liu, Liping

    2016-11-01

    Extrapolation techniques and storm-scale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are two primary approaches for short-term precipitation forecasts. The primary objective of this study is to verify precipitation forecasts and compare the performances of two nowcasting schemes: a Beijing Auto-Nowcast system (BJ-ANC) based on extrapolation techniques and a storm-scale NWP model called the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS). The verification and comparison takes into account six heavy precipitation events that occurred in the summer of 2014 and 2015 in Jiangsu, China. The forecast performances of the two schemes were evaluated for the next 6 h at 1-h intervals using gridpoint-based measures of critical success index, bias, index of agreement, root mean square error, and using an object-based verification method called Structure-Amplitude-Location (SAL) score. Regarding gridpoint-based measures, BJ-ANC outperforms ARPS at first, but then the forecast accuracy decreases rapidly with lead time and performs worse than ARPS after 4-5 h of the initial forecast. Regarding the object-based verification method, most forecasts produced by BJ-ANC focus on the center of the diagram at the 1-h lead time and indicate high-quality forecasts. As the lead time increases, BJ-ANC overestimates precipitation amount and produces widespread precipitation, especially at a 6-h lead time. The ARPS model overestimates precipitation at all lead times, particularly at first.

  13. Forecasting Models for Energy Policymaking

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    price shock is less than other estimates and contains an important lesson for DoD policymakers: macro - economic analysis highlights the facts that...Conclusions 3. LONG-RANGE ECONOMIC FORECASTS Model Structure Forecasts Review Models that Inform Judgment Conclusion: What Does Analysis ...of Long-Range Forecasts Tell DoD? 3-26 4. DECISION ANALYSIS APPROACHES 4-1 The Teisburg Model 4-1 Conclusion: What Do Decision

  14. A comparison of the domestic satellite communications forecast to the year 2000

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poley, W. A.; Lekan, J. F.; Salzman, J. A.; Stevenson, S. M.

    1983-01-01

    The methodologies and results of three NASA-sponsored market demand assessment studies are presented and compared. Forecasts of future satellite addressable traffic (both trunking and customer premises services) were developed for the three main service categories of voice, data and video and subcategories thereof for the benchmark years of 1980, 1990 and 2000. The contractor results are presented on a service by service basis in two formats: equivalent 36 MHz transponders and basic transmission units (voice: half-voice circuits, data: megabits per second and video: video channels). It is shown that while considerable differences exist at the service category level, the overall forecasts by the two contractors are quite similar. ITT estimates the total potential satellite market to be 3594 transponders in the year 2000 with data service comprising 54 percent of this total. The WU outlook for the same time period is 2779 transponders with voice services accounting for 66 percent of the total.

  15. Comparisons of forecasting for hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using three neural networks models.

    PubMed

    Gan, Ruijing; Chen, Ni; Huang, Daizheng

    2016-01-01

    This study compares and evaluates the prediction of hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using back propagation neural networks based genetic algorithm (BPNN-GA), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and wavelet neural networks (WNN). In order to compare the results of forecasting, the data obtained from 2004 to 2013 and 2014 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The results show that when the small data set of hepatitis has seasonal fluctuation, the prediction result by BPNN-GA will be better than the two other methods. The WNN method is suitable for predicting the large data set of hepatitis that has seasonal fluctuation and the same for the GRNN method when the data increases steadily.

  16. Comparisons of forecasting for hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using three neural networks models

    PubMed Central

    Gan, Ruijing; Chen, Ni

    2016-01-01

    This study compares and evaluates the prediction of hepatitis in Guangxi Province, China by using back propagation neural networks based genetic algorithm (BPNN-GA), generalized regression neural networks (GRNN), and wavelet neural networks (WNN). In order to compare the results of forecasting, the data obtained from 2004 to 2013 and 2014 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The results show that when the small data set of hepatitis has seasonal fluctuation, the prediction result by BPNN-GA will be better than the two other methods. The WNN method is suitable for predicting the large data set of hepatitis that has seasonal fluctuation and the same for the GRNN method when the data increases steadily. PMID:27843718

  17. Comparison of Exponential Smoothing Methods in Forecasting Palm Oil Real Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siregar, B.; Butar-Butar, I. A.; Rahmat, RF; Andayani, U.; Fahmi, F.

    2017-01-01

    Palm oil has important role for the plantation subsector. Forecasting of the real palm oil production in certain period is needed by plantation companies to maintain their strategic management. This study compared several methods based on exponential smoothing (ES) technique such as single ES, double exponential smoothing holt, triple exponential smoothing, triple exponential smoothing additive and multiplicative to predict the palm oil production. We examined the accuracy of forecasting models of production data and analyzed the characteristics of the models. Programming language R was used with selected constants for double ES (α and β) and triple ES (α, β, and γ) evaluated by the technique of minimizing the root mean squared prediction error (RMSE). Our result showed that triple ES additives had lowest error rate compared to the other models with RMSE of 0.10 with a combination of parameters α = 0.6, β = 0.02, and γ = 0.02.

  18. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  19. Forecasting forecast skill

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

  20. Comparison of cross-validation and bootstrap aggregating for building a seasonal streamflow forecast model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schick, Simon; Rössler, Ole; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-10-01

    Based on a hindcast experiment for the period 1982-2013 in 66 sub-catchments of the Swiss Rhine, the present study compares two approaches of building a regression model for seasonal streamflow forecasting. The first approach selects a single "best guess" model, which is tested by leave-one-out cross-validation. The second approach implements the idea of bootstrap aggregating, where bootstrap replicates are employed to select several models, and out-of-bag predictions provide model testing. The target value is mean streamflow for durations of 30, 60 and 90 days, starting with the 1st and 16th day of every month. Compared to the best guess model, bootstrap aggregating reduces the mean squared error of the streamflow forecast by seven percent on average. Thus, if resampling is anyway part of the model building procedure, bootstrap aggregating seems to be a useful strategy in statistical seasonal streamflow forecasting. Since the improved accuracy comes at the cost of a less interpretable model, the approach might be best suited for pure prediction tasks, e.g. as in operational applications.

  1. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity Comparisons for Warm Season Convective Initiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Leela R.

    2007-01-01

    This report describes the work done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting warm season convection over East-Central Florida. The Weather Research and Forecasting Environmental Modeling System (WRF EMS) software allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Besides model core and initialization options, the WRF model can be run with one- or two-way nesting. Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. This project assessed three different model intializations available to determine which configuration best predicts warm season convective initiation in East-Central Florida. The project also examined the use of one- and two-way nesting in predicting warm season convection.

  2. Comparison of acoustic doppler current profiler and Price AA mechanical current meter measurements made during the 2011 Mississippi River Flood

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    O'Brien, Patrick; Mueller, David; Pratt, Thad

    2012-01-01

    The Mississippi River and Tributaries project performed as designed during the historic 2011 Mississippi River flood, with many of the operational decisions based on discharge targets as opposed to stage. Measurement of discharge at the Tarbert Landing, Mississippi range provides critical information used in operational decisions for the floodways located in Louisiana. Historically, discharge measurements have been made using a Price AA current meter and the mid-section method, and a long record exists based on these types of measurements, including historical peak discharges. Discharge measurements made using an acoustic Doppler current profiler from a moving boat have been incorporated into the record since the mid 1990's, and are used along with the Price AA mid-section measurements. During the 2011 flood event, both methods were used and appeared to provide different results at times. The apparent differences between the measurement techniques are due to complex hydrodynamics at this location that created large spatial and temporal fluctuations in the flow. The data and analysis presented herein show the difference between the two methods to be within the expected accuracy of the measurements when the measurements are made concurrently. The observed fluctuations prevent valid comparisons of data collected sequentially or even with different observation durations.

  3. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and model forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; McQueen, J.; Tang, Y.; Langel, T.; McKeen, S.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2015-05-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large summertime ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin and as predicted by the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. From 2008 to 2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008 to 2010 measurements of ambient ozone were conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI, and Muskegon, MI, up to six times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha, with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature and with greatest differences during evening and night. Concurrent 1-48 h forecasts from the CMAQ model in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were compared to ferry ozone measurements, shoreline DOAS measurements and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) station measurements. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day were explored showing non-uniformity in model bias over the lake. Model ozone bias was consistently high over the lake in comparison to land-based measurements, with highest biases for 25-48 h after initialization.

  4. Periodical Prices: 1976-78 Update

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clasquin, F. F.

    1978-01-01

    Comparative data are given for periodical price changes for 1976-78. Tables include price changes in library rates for scientific literature; percent of total subscriptions processed and total expenditure for various periodical price ranges; comparisons of prices for domestic and foreign titles; and journal price ranges for selected subject…

  5. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  6. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976-January 1980 A Appendix A 1 to Part 281 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF...

  7. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976-January 1980 A Appendix A 1 to Part 281 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF...

  8. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976-January 1980 A Appendix A 1 to Part 281 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF...

  9. A Comparison of Model Short-Range Forecasts and the ARM Microbase Data Fourth Quarter ARM Science Metric

    SciTech Connect

    Hnilo, J.

    2006-09-19

    For the fourth quarter ARM metric we will make use of new liquid water data that has become available, and called the “Microbase” value added product (referred to as OBS, within the text) at three sites: the North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical West Pacific (TWP) and the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and compare these observations to model forecast data. Two time periods will be analyzed March 2000 for the SGP and October 2004 for both TWP and NSA. The Microbase data have been averaged to 35 pressure levels (e.g., from 1000hPa to 100hPa at 25hPa increments) and time averaged to 3hourly data for direct comparison to our model output.

  10. Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zink, Katrin; Kaufmann, Pirmin; Petitpierre, Blaise; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Gentilini, Eros; Rotach, Mathias W.

    2017-01-01

    One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably.

  11. Numerical ragweed pollen forecasts using different source maps: a comparison for France.

    PubMed

    Zink, Katrin; Kaufmann, Pirmin; Petitpierre, Blaise; Broennimann, Olivier; Guisan, Antoine; Gentilini, Eros; Rotach, Mathias W

    2017-01-01

    One of the key input parameters for numerical pollen forecasts is the distribution of pollen sources. Generally, three different methodologies exist to assemble such distribution maps: (1) plant inventories, (2) land use data in combination with annual pollen counts, and (3) ecological modeling. We have used six exemplary maps for all of these methodologies to study their applicability and usefulness in numerical pollen forecasts. The ragweed pollen season of 2012 in France has been simulated with the numerical weather prediction model COSMO-ART using each of the distribution maps in turn. The simulated pollen concentrations were statistically compared to measured values to derive a ranking of the maps with respect to their performance. Overall, approach (2) resulted in the best correspondence between observed and simulated pollen concentrations for the year 2012. It is shown that maps resulting from ecological modeling that does not include a sophisticated estimation of the plant density have a very low predictive skill. For inventory maps and the maps based on land use data and pollen counts, the results depend very much on the observational site. The use of pollen counts to calibrate the map enhances the performance of the model considerably.

  12. The mirage of higher petroleum prices

    SciTech Connect

    Lynch, M.C.

    1996-02-01

    Most petroleum industry price forecasters do not possess a record of which they can be proud. Long-term petroleum market forecasting has been so inaccurate that it has often been described as virtually impossible. To avoid criticism of their performance, many organizations no longer circulate their forecasts. Why have the forecasts been so wrong? Because of failure to predict supply. This paper reviews the erroneous methods used to predict price trends in the oil and gas industry and identifies methods to correct the problem.

  13. A Comparison Study of Return Ratio-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models. Professional File. Article 129, Spring 2013

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zan, Xinxing Anna; Yoon, Sang Won; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Srihari, Krishnaswami

    2013-01-01

    In an effort to develop a low-cost and user-friendly forecasting model to minimize forecasting error, we have applied average and exponentially weighted return ratios to project undergraduate student enrollment. We tested the proposed forecasting models with different sets of historical enrollment data, such as university-, school-, and…

  14. Preliminary comparison of insolation measurements, forecasts, and estimates from satellite imagery

    SciTech Connect

    Riordan, C.J.

    1984-02-01

    Two national insolation data products recently initiated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are examined and compared with ground measurements. The products are the National Weather Service (NWS) insolation forecasts and the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS) satellite estimates of insolation. All insolation data were converted to daily global horizontal insolation in units of kWh m/sup -2/ and divided by extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface to yield atmospheric transmittance. The mean absolute difference in transmittance between ground measurements and the NOAA estimates ranged from .087 to 0.135 for the limited data set. Recommendations are: (1) to evaluate recent improvements to the NESDIS algorithm; (2) to define criteria for evaluation of the products with respect to purposes and specific applications; and (3) to perform expanded evaluations and refine algorithms if necessary.

  15. Pharmaceutical Pricing: The Use of External Reference Pricing.

    PubMed

    Ruggeri, Kai; Nolte, Ellen

    2013-01-01

    External reference pricing, or international price comparison, is a common strategy to control prices of pharmaceuticals that are protected by intellectual property rights and benefit from a legal monopoly (in-patent drugs). In the UK negotiations are under way that seek to define new arrangements for the pricing of branded (new) medicines from 2014. The pharmaceutical market in the UK only accounts for a small proportion of global sales; however, UK prices are important as many countries reference their prices against those in the UK. This article seeks to contribute to our understanding of approaches to pharmaceutical pricing in high-income countries and the role of reference pricing as a means to determining pharmaceutical prices. Reviewing experiences in Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain, we find high variability of external reference pricing across different settings and of the relative importance of this approach in comparison with other pricing strategies. There was also considerable variation in the terminology and practices used, and understanding the complexities of countries included in reference baskets for external pricing requires considerable semantic clarification. There was considerable overlap between countries that cross-reference, and it remains challenging to estimate the direct, immediate impact on external reference baskets. This review suggests that the international impact of pricing changes in the UK is likely to be minimal or indirect, largely because of the diverse ways in which reference pricing is implemented in the countries examined.

  16. Menu item forecasting systems in hospital foodservice. A cost comparison of two- and three-echelon systems.

    PubMed

    Cullen, K O; Hoover, L W; Moore, A N

    1978-12-01

    The forecasting efficiency of two- and three-echelon menu item forecasting systems was compared. Two forecasting models were used with each system, adaptive exponential smoothing and a Box-Jenkins model. The two systems were compared in terms of forecast error costs. The two-echelon system, using adaptive exponential smoothing, was recommended. This technique resulted in the lowest forecast error costs at a majority of the lead times which probably would be used most frequently. Also, this technique was the least complicated of the four techniques which were compared.

  17. Comparison of random forests and support vector machine for real-time radar-derived rainfall forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Pao-Shan; Yang, Tao-Chang; Chen, Szu-Yin; Kuo, Chen-Min; Tseng, Hung-Wei

    2017-09-01

    This study aims to compare two machine learning techniques, random forests (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), for real-time radar-derived rainfall forecasting. The real-time radar-derived rainfall forecasting models use the present grid-based radar-derived rainfall as the output variable and use antecedent grid-based radar-derived rainfall, grid position (longitude and latitude) and elevation as the input variables to forecast 1- to 3-h ahead rainfalls for all grids in a catchment. Grid-based radar-derived rainfalls of six typhoon events during 2012-2015 in three reservoir catchments of Taiwan are collected for model training and verifying. Two kinds of forecasting models are constructed and compared, which are single-mode forecasting model (SMFM) and multiple-mode forecasting model (MMFM) based on RF and SVM. The SMFM uses the same model for 1- to 3-h ahead rainfall forecasting; the MMFM uses three different models for 1- to 3-h ahead forecasting. According to forecasting performances, it reveals that the SMFMs give better performances than MMFMs and both SVM-based and RF-based SMFMs show satisfactory performances for 1-h ahead forecasting. However, for 2- and 3-h ahead forecasting, it is found that the RF-based SMFM underestimates the observed radar-derived rainfalls in most cases and the SVM-based SMFM can give better performances than RF-based SMFM.

  18. Comparison of a Bayesian network with a logistic regression model to forecast IgA nephropathy.

    PubMed

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation.

  19. Global Solar UV Index: Australian measurements, forecasts and comparison with the UK.

    PubMed

    Gies, Peter; Roy, Colin; Javorniczky, John; Henderson, Stuart; Lemus-Deschamps, Lilia; Driscoll, Colin

    2004-01-01

    The 2002 revision of the UV index (UVI) issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the World Meteorological Office (WMO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP) (World Health Organization [2002] Global Solar UV Index: A Practical Guide. WHO, Geneva) was motivated by the need to further standardize the use and presentation of the UVI. Awareness of the hazards of solar UV radiation (UVR) is generally high in Australia, but more effective use of the UVI will assist in promoting further changes to the population's sun exposure behavior. UVI levels for a number of cities around Australia as measured by the Australian Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety Agency (ARPANSA), covering the time period 1996-2000, are presented. Also shown are UVI forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). Agreement between the BOM data and the measurements varies depending on the location but is within 2 UVI units approximately 75% of the time. UVI levels are supplied to the media, and in summer values in excess of 12-14 are regularly recorded, although the more northerly locations occasionally reach 16 and 17. The factors affecting the solar UVR environment and the measured UVI are also discussed and compared against measurements from the UK.

  20. Comparison of results of Chinese and American forecasting of nursing curriculum needs.

    PubMed

    Story, D K; Smola, B K; Liu, K H

    1990-11-01

    This study used Mengel's (1987) Round Three Questionnaire results from the Fellows of the American Academy of Nursing and baccalaureate nurse educators of Taiwan to compare perceived importance of nursing curriculum needs. The t-test was used as a test of difference between the two groups. Ninety-nine of 129 items were significantly different (p less than .05). This result showed that the forecasting of nursing curriculum needs between R.O.C. and the U.S. generic baccalaureate nursing faculty are different in many ways; specific content areas, sites for clinical experience, and perceived baccalaureate nursing curriculum needs by the year 1995. R.O.C. nurse educators value more highly than the American group six specific content areas: midwifery, nuclear medicine/nursing, space medicine/nursing, geropsychiatry, critical care nursing, and cardiac rehabilitation. American nurse educators pay more attention to 16 specific content areas: palliative care, family and social support systems for the adult, human responses to actual and potential health problems, alcohol, substance abuse and toxicology, life cycle effects on family dynamics, gerentology, health needs of the adolescent, and increasing patient compliance. The emergency care units are placed higher by the R.O.C. nurse educators than by the American group for clinical experiences. R.O.C. nurse educators rated as more important than the American group the ability to speak a second language, the management of contracted nursing services, entrepreneurial activities, and occupational nursing.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  1. Comparison of a Bayesian Network with a Logistic Regression Model to Forecast IgA Nephropathy

    PubMed Central

    Ducher, Michel; Kalbacher, Emilie; Combarnous, François; Finaz de Vilaine, Jérome; McGregor, Brigitte; Fouque, Denis; Fauvel, Jean Pierre

    2013-01-01

    Models are increasingly used in clinical practice to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. The aim of our work was to compare a Bayesian network to logistic regression to forecast IgA nephropathy (IgAN) from simple clinical and biological criteria. Retrospectively, we pooled the results of all biopsies (n = 155) performed by nephrologists in a specialist clinical facility between 2002 and 2009. Two groups were constituted at random. The first subgroup was used to determine the parameters of the models adjusted to data by logistic regression or Bayesian network, and the second was used to compare the performances of the models using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. IgAN was found (on pathology) in 44 patients. Areas under the ROC curves provided by both methods were highly significant but not different from each other. Based on the highest Youden indices, sensitivity reached (100% versus 67%) and specificity (73% versus 95%) using the Bayesian network and logistic regression, respectively. A Bayesian network is at least as efficient as logistic regression to estimate the probability of a patient suffering IgAN, using simple clinical and biological data obtained during consultation. PMID:24328031

  2. 76 FR 18425 - Energy Conservation Program: Data Collection and Comparison With Forecasted Unit Sales of Five...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-04

    ... Service Lamps C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent Lamps E.... Vibration Service Lamps C. Three-Way Incandescent Lamps D. 2,601-3,300 Lumen General Service Incandescent... each lamp type to provide a neutral comparison benchmark estimate of future unit sales. (42 U.S.C....

  3. A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zack, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

  4. Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, R. N.; Kalnay, E.

    1983-01-01

    A 'lagged average forecast' (LAF) model is developed for stochastic dynamic weather forecasting and used for predictions in comparison with the results of a Monte Carlo forecast (MCF). The technique involves the calculation of sample statistics from an ensemble of forecasts, with each ensemble member being an ordinary dynamical forecast (ODF). Initial conditions at a time lagging the start of the forecast period are used, with varying amounts of time for the lags. Forcing by asymmetric Newtonian heating of the lower layer is used in a two-layer, f-plane, highly truncated spectral model in a test forecasting run. Both the LAF and MCF are found to be more accurate than the ODF due to ensemble averaging with the MCF and the LAF. When a regression filter is introduced, all models become more accurate, with the LAF model giving the best results. The possibility of generating monthly or seasonal forecasts with the LAF is discussed.

  5. Pharmaceutical prices continue to drive up supply costs.

    PubMed

    Hard, R

    1992-03-05

    The 1992 purchasing outlook from the Joint Purchasing Corp. (JPC), New York City, forecasts a difficult winter followed by a mild economic recovery beginning in the spring or early summer. Pharmaceuticals, however, are forecast to undergo significant price increases, due in part to hospital pharmaceutical price hikes associated with the ramifications of the 1990 Medicaid drug rebate legislation passed by Congress.

  6. Draft forecast of the final report for the comparison to 40 CFR Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Bertram-Howery, S.G.; Marietta, M.G.; Anderson, D.R.; Gomez, L.S.; Rechard, R.P. ); Brinster, K.F.; Guzowski, R.V. )

    1989-12-01

    The United States Department of Energy is planning to dispose of transuranic wastes, which have been generated by defense programs, at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. The WIPP Project will assess compliance with the requirements of the United States Environmental Protection Agency. This report forecasts the planned 1992 document, Comparison to 40 CFR, Part 191, Subpart B, for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). 130 refs., 36 figs., 11 tabs.

  7. InnoPOL: an EMCCD imaging polarimeter and 85-element curvature AO system on the 3.6-m AEOS telescope for cost effective polarimetric speckle suppression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, David; Berdyugina, Svetlana; Chun, Mark; Ftaclas, Christ; Gisler, Daniel; Kuhn, Jeff

    2014-08-01

    The Hokupa'a-85 curvature adaptive optics system components have been adapted to create a new AO-corrected coudé instrument at the 3.67m Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) telescope. This new AO-corrected optical path is designed to deliver an f/40 diffraction-limited focus at wavelengths longer than 800nm. A new EMCCD-based dual-beam imaging polarimeter called InnoPOL has been designed and is presently being installed behind this corrected f/40 beam. The InnoPOL system is a flexible platform for optimizing polarimetric performance using commercial solutions and for testing modulation strategies. The system is designed as a technology test and demonstration platform as the coudé path is built using off-the-shelf components wherever possible. Models of the polarimetric performance after AO correction show that polarization modulation at rates as slow as 200Hz can cause speckle correlations in brightness and focal plane location sufficient enough to change the speckle suppression behavior of the modulators. These models are also verified by initial EMCCD scoring camera data at AEOS. Substantial instrument trades and development efforts are explored between instrument performance parameters and various polarimetric noise sources.

  8. Earthquake Forecasting Methodology Catalogue - A collection and comparison of the state-of-the-art in earthquake forecasting and prediction methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake forecasting and prediction has been one of the key struggles of modern geosciences for the last few decades. A large number of approaches for various time periods have been developed for different locations around the world. A categorization and review of more than 20 of new and old methods was undertaken to develop a state-of-the-art catalogue in forecasting algorithms and methodologies. The different methods have been categorised into time-independent, time-dependent and hybrid methods, from which the last group represents methods where additional data than just historical earthquake statistics have been used. It is necessary to categorize in such a way between pure statistical approaches where historical earthquake data represents the only direct data source and also between algorithms which incorporate further information e.g. spatial data of fault distributions or which incorporate physical models like static triggering to indicate future earthquakes. Furthermore, the location of application has been taken into account to identify methods which can be applied e.g. in active tectonic regions like California or in less active continental regions. In general, most of the methods cover well-known high-seismicity regions like Italy, Japan or California. Many more elements have been reviewed, including the application of established theories and methods e.g. for the determination of the completeness magnitude or whether the modified Omori law was used or not. Target temporal scales are identified as well as the publication history. All these different aspects have been reviewed and catalogued to provide an easy-to-use tool for the development of earthquake forecasting algorithms and to get an overview in the state-of-the-art.

  9. Availability, price and affordability of cardiovascular medicines: A comparison across 36 countries using WHO/HAI data

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The global burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to rise. Successful treatment of CVD requires adequate pharmaceutical management. The aim was to examine the availability, pricing and affordability of cardiovascular medicines in developing countries using the standardized data collected according to the World Health Organization/Health Action International methodology. Methods The following medicines were included: atenolol, captopril, hydrochlorothiazide, losartan and nifedipine. Data from 36 countries were analyzed. Outcome measures were percentage availability, price ratios to international reference prices and number of day's wages needed by the lowest-paid unskilled government worker to purchase one month of chronic treatment. Patient prices were adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, procurement prices only for inflation. Data were analyzed for both generic and originator brand products and the public and private sector and summarized by World Bank Income Groups. Results For all measures, there was great variability across surveys. The overall availability of cardiovascular medicines was poor (mean 26.3% in public sector, 57.3% private sector). Procurement prices were very competitive in some countries, whereas others consistently paid high prices. Patient prices were generally substantially higher than international references prices; some countries, however, performed well. Chronic treatment with anti-hypertensive medication cost more than one day's wages in many cases. In particular when monotherapy is insufficient, treatment became unaffordable. Conclusions The results of this study emphasize the need of focusing attention and financing on making chronic disease medicines accessible, in particular in the public sector. Several policy options are suggested to reach this goal. PMID:20534118

  10. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles-Evidence from China's Stock Market.

    PubMed

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China's stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank's policymaking.

  11. A Comparison of Forecasting the Index of the Korean Stock Market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shin, Young-Geun; Park, Sang-Sung; Jang, Dong-Sik

    2009-08-01

    According to the increase of an impact foreigner investor have on the Korean stock market, it is very importance to analyze the investment pattern of the foreigner investors in order to predict the movement of the Korean stock market. Firstly, in this study we collected various factors which influence the Korean stock market in the previous literatures about the movement of stock market. Secondly, Factors which influence significantly to KOPSI 200 Index among the collected factors are extracted through the stepwise selection used in regression analysis. Finally we predicted the movement of the Korean stock market using Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). And we have done a comparison analysis of obtained results through these methods. As a result of the experiments, prediction accuracy using SVM showed better result than using BPN.

  12. [Population forecasts for the Netherlands, 1986-2035].

    PubMed

    Cruijsen, H

    1987-02-01

    Results of the 1986 official population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented, and the assumptions made in their preparation are described. Comparisons are made with forecasts for 1985. Three alternative variations of the forecasts are included. (SUMMARY IN ENG)

  13. 36 CFR 1210.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... EDUCATION, HOSPITALS, AND OTHER NON-PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS Post-Award Requirements Procurement Standards... in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations submitted, market prices and similar...

  14. Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, J. M.; Yoshida, Y.; Duncan, B. N.; Bucsela, E. J.; Gleason, J. F.; Allen, D.; Pickering, K. E.

    2007-01-01

    We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2degx2.5deg. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NO(x) which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NO(y). Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the lightning production of NO(y) will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OM1 instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

  15. Simulations of Tropospheric NO2 by the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Model Utilizing Assimilated and Forecast Meteorological Fields: Comparison to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodriguez, J. M.; Yoshida, Y.; Duncan, B. N.; Bucsela, E. J.; Gleason, J. F.; Allen, D.; Pickering, K. E.

    2007-12-01

    We present simulations of the tropospheric composition for the years 2004 and 2005, carried out by the GMI Combined Stratosphere-Troposphere (Combo) model, at a resolution of 2°x2.5°. The model includes a new parameterization of lightning sources of NOx which is coupled to the cloud mass fluxes in the adopted meteorological fields. These simulations use two different sets of input meteorological fields: a)late-look assimilated fields from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), GEOS-4 system and b) 12-hour forecast fields initialized with the assimilated data. Comparison of the forecast to the assimilated fields indicates that the forecast fields exhibit less vigorous convection, and yield tropical precipitation fields in better agreement with observations. Since these simulations include a complete representation of the stratosphere, they provide realistic stratosphere-tropospheric fluxes of O3 and NOy. Furthermore, the stratospheric contribution to total columns of different troposheric species can be subtracted in a consistent fashion, and the spatial and temporal patterns of the lightning production of NOx will depend on the adopted meteorological field. We concentrate here on the simulated tropospheric columns of NO2, and compare them to observations by the OMI instrument for the years 2004 and 2005. The comparison is used to address these questions: a) is there a significant difference in the agreement/disagreement between simulations for these two different meteorological fields, and if so, what causes these differences?; b) how do the simulations compare to OMI observations, and does this comparison indicate an improvement in simulations with the forecast fields? c) what are the implications of these simulations for our understanding of the NO2 emissions over continental polluted regions?

  16. Annual FAA Forecast Conference Proceedings (4th).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-10-01

    Mary M. Anderson ................ 8 .~->FAA Aviation Forecasts) .Mr. Gene Mer..................... 10 9 :State System Forecasting. Mr. Jim Goff...forecasting activity much of their impact is derived from their unex- has on planning and management efforts at the pectedness. state and local levels. The...alternatives for their clients. The realities of the fixed-price contracts under which they oper- ate often do not allow both to be done adequately. This is

  17. The impact of wind power on electricity prices

    SciTech Connect

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Brinkman, Greg; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2016-08-01

    This paper investigates the impact of wind power on electricity prices using a production cost model of the Independent System Operator - New England power system. Different scenarios in terms of wind penetration, wind forecasts, and wind curtailment are modeled in order to analyze the impact of wind power on electricity prices for different wind penetration levels and for different levels of wind power visibility and controllability. The analysis concludes that electricity price volatility increases even as electricity prices decrease with increasing wind penetration levels. The impact of wind power on price volatility is larger in the shorter term (5-min compared to hour-to-hour). The results presented show that over-forecasting wind power increases electricity prices while under-forecasting wind power reduces them. The modeling results also show that controlling wind power by allowing curtailment increases electricity prices, and for higher wind penetrations it also reduces their volatility.

  18. Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for model-based flow prediction in urban drainage systems.

    PubMed

    Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas; Borup, Morten; Ahm, Malte; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Grum, Morten; Rasmussen, Michael R; Gill, Rasphall; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2013-01-01

    Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied as input to an urban runoff model predicting the inlet flow to a waste water treatment plant. The modelled flows are auto-calibrated against real-time flow observations in order to certify the best possible forecast. Results show that it is possible to forecast flows with a lead time of 24 h. The best performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times.

  19. Combining Satellite Ocean Color Imagery and Circulation Modeling to Forecast Bio-Optical Properties: Comparison of Models and Advection Schemes

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-10-01

    Remote sensing of ocean color provides synoptic surface ocean bio -optical properties but is limited to real-time or climatological applications. Many...this, we couple satellite imagery with numerical circulation models to provide short-term (24-48 hr) forecasts of bio -optical properties. These are...physical processes control the bio -optical distribution patterns. We compare optical forecast results from three Navy models and two advection

  20. Arima model and exponential smoothing method: A comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wan Ahmad, Wan Kamarul Ariffin; Ahmad, Sabri

    2013-04-01

    This study shows the comparison between Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model and Exponential Smoothing Method in making a prediction. The comparison is focused on the ability of both methods in making the forecasts with the different number of data sources and the different length of forecasting period. For this purpose, the data from The Price of Crude Palm Oil (RM/tonne), Exchange Rates of Ringgit Malaysia (RM) in comparison to Great Britain Pound (GBP) and also The Price of SMR 20 Rubber Type (cents/kg) with three different time series are used in the comparison process. Then, forecasting accuracy of each model is measured by examinethe prediction error that producedby using Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute deviation (MAD). The study shows that the ARIMA model can produce a better prediction for the long-term forecasting with limited data sources, butcannot produce a better prediction for time series with a narrow range of one point to another as in the time series for Exchange Rates. On the contrary, Exponential Smoothing Method can produce a better forecasting for Exchange Rates that has a narrow range of one point to another for its time series, while itcannot produce a better prediction for a longer forecasting period.

  1. The accuracy comparison between ARFIMA and singular spectrum analysis for forecasting the sales volume of motorcycle in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitohang, Yosep Oktavianus; Darmawan, Gumgum

    2017-08-01

    This research attempts to compare between two forecasting models in time series analysis for predicting the sales volume of motorcycle in Indonesia. The first forecasting model used in this paper is Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA). ARFIMA can handle non-stationary data and has a better performance than ARIMA in forecasting accuracy on long memory data. This is because the fractional difference parameter can explain correlation structure in data that has short memory, long memory, and even both structures simultaneously. The second forecasting model is Singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The advantage of the technique is that it is able to decompose time series data into the classic components i.e. trend, cyclical, seasonal and noise components. This makes the forecasting accuracy of this technique significantly better. Furthermore, SSA is a model-free technique, so it is likely to have a very wide range in its application. Selection of the best model is based on the value of the lowest MAPE. Based on the calculation, it is obtained the best model for ARFIMA is ARFIMA (3, d = 0, 63, 0) with MAPE value of 22.95 percent. For SSA with a window length of 53 and 4 group of reconstructed data, resulting MAPE value of 13.57 percent. Based on these results it is concluded that SSA produces better forecasting accuracy.

  2. Real time probabilistic precipitation forecasts in the Milano urban area: comparison between a physics and pragmatic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ceppi, Alessandro; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Lombardi, Gabriele; Amengual, Arnau; Homar, Victor; Romero, Romu; Mancini, Marco

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts from mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often contain features that are not deterministically predictable. In particular, accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme rainfall are arduous to be predicted in terms of amount, time and target over small hydrological basins due to uncertainties arising from the numerical weather prediction (NWP), physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state, therefore they require a probabilistic forecast approach. Here, we examine some hydro-meteorological episodes that affected the Milano urban watersheds using a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. The first approach is based on a hydrological ensemble prediction system (HEPS) designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. The second involves a pragmatic post-processing procedure by randomly shifting in space the precipitation field provided by the deterministic WRF model run in order to get a cluster of different simulations. Although the physics-based approach needs a high computational cost, it outperforms the pragmatic set of configurations, which, however, turns out to be an acceptable low-budget alternative for real time flood forecasts over small urban basins when a single deterministic run is available.

  3. National Hospital Input Price Index

    PubMed Central

    Freeland, Mark S.; Anderson, Gerard; Schendler, Carol Ellen

    1979-01-01

    The national community hospital input price index presented here isolates the effects of prices of goods and services required to produce hospital care and measures the average percent change in prices for a fixed market basket of hospital inputs. Using the methodology described in this article, weights for various expenditure categories were estimated and proxy price variables associated with each were selected. The index is calculated for the historical period 1970 through 1978 and forecast for 1979 through 1981. During the historical period, the input price index increased an average of 8.0 percent a year, compared with an average rate of increase of 6.6 percent for overall consumer prices. For the period 1979 through 1981, the average annual increase is forecast at between 8.5 and 9.0 percent. Using the index to deflate growth in expenses, the level of real growth in expenditures per inpatient day (net service intensity growth) averaged 4.5 percent per year with considerable annual variation related to government and hospital industry policies. PMID:10309052

  4. National hospital input price index.

    PubMed

    Freeland, M S; Anderson, G; Schendler, C E

    1979-01-01

    The national community hospital input price index presented here isolates the effects of prices of goods and services required to produce hospital care and measures the average percent change in prices for a fixed market basket of hospital inputs. Using the methodology described in this article, weights for various expenditure categories were estimated and proxy price variables associated with each were selected. The index is calculated for the historical period 1970 through 1978 and forecast for 1979 through 1981. During the historical period, the input price index increased an average of 8.0 percent a year, compared with an average rate of increase of 6.6 percent for overall consumer prices. For the period 1979 through 1981, the average annual increase is forecast at between 8.5 and 9.0 per cent. Using the index to deflate growth in expenses, the level of real growth in expenditures per inpatient day (net service intensity growth) averaged 4.5 percent per year with considerable annual variation related to government and hospital industry policies.

  5. An Experiment in Probabilistic Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Thomas A.

    Students were asked to make forecasts of fourteen quantities where true values would not become known for five or six months. The quantities were selected to be typical of the subjects which would be of interest to a decisionmaker in business or government, and included GNP, consumer prices, draft calls, deaths in South Vietnam, and election…

  6. Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-02-17

    The Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 is a companion document to the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO). Supplement tables provide the regional projections underlying the national data and projections in the AEO. The domestic coal, electric power, commercial nuclear power, end-use consumption, and end-use price tables present AEO forecasts at the 10 Federal Region level. World coal tables provide data and projections on international flows of steam coal and metallurgical coal, and the oil and gas tables provide the AEO oil and gas supply forecasts by Oil and Gas Supply Regions and by source of supply. All tables refer to cases presented in the AEO, which provides a range of projections for energy markets through 2010.

  7. Explaining high health care spending in the United States: an international comparison of supply, utilization, prices, and quality.

    PubMed

    Squires, David A

    2012-05-01

    This analysis uses data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and other sources to compare health care spending, supply, utilization, prices, and quality in 13 industrialized countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The U.S. spends far more on health care than any other country. However this high spending cannot be attributed to higher income, an older population, or greater supply or utilization of hospitals and doctors. Instead, the findings suggest the higher spending is more likely due to higher prices and perhaps more readily accessible technology and greater obesity. Health care quality in the U.S. varies and is not notably superior to the far less expensive systems in the other study countries. Of the countries studied, Japan has the lowest health spending, which it achieves primarily through aggressive price regulation.

  8. Supplement to the annual energy outlook 1994

    SciTech Connect

    1994-03-01

    This report is a companion document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94), (DOE/EIA-0383(94)), released in Jan. 1994. Part I of the Supplement presents the key quantitative assumptions underlying the AEO94 projections, responding to requests by energy analysts for additional information on the forecasts. In Part II, the Supplement provides regional projections and other underlying details of the reference case projections in the AEO94. The AEO94 presents national forecasts of energy production, demand and prices through 2010 for five scenarios, including a reference case and four additional cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices. These forecasts are used by Federal, State, and local governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers in the public and private sectors.

  9. Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ning, Yumei

    Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

  10. U.S. Periodical Price Index for 1994.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carpenter, Kathryn Hammell; Alexander, Adrian W.

    1994-01-01

    Presents the 1994 periodical price index, based on subscription price information supplied and compiled by the Faxon Company to measure changes in average U.S. periodical prices. Highlights include subject categories, rates of increase, price index comparisons, prices by Library of Congress Classification, and comparative information from 1977…

  11. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H. . Dept. of Physics); Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. )

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  12. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H.; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W.

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  13. Further refinements to the spatiotemporal forecast model for L-band scintillation based on comparison with C/NOFS observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yadav, Sneha; Sridharan, R.; Sunda, Surendra; Pant, Tarun K.

    2017-05-01

    The model-generated spatiotemporal maps to forecast the occurrence pattern of plasma density irregularities in the nightside equatorial F region that are responsible for the L-band scintillations have been put to test, in both space and time, by comparing it with actual observations by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecasting System satellite. The forecast model is based on (i) the temporal variations of the density perturbations during daytime in the Nmax region and (ii) the a priori knowledge of zonal velocity of the perturbations in the postsunset hours. The present study not only substantiates the hypothesis used for the generation of the scintillation forecast but also suggests that the equatorial plasma bubbles remain tied-up with the initial perturbations which trigger the primary Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The outcome highlights the need to take into account the altitudinal profile of the topside F region electron density as it could modify the zonal extent of the plasma bubbles that support the generation of the density irregularities and the consequent L-band scintillations. The present study takes us one more step closer toward the realization of an operational forecast system for satellite-based navigation.

  14. Comparison of physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of rice samples with different countries of origin and prices.

    PubMed

    Jang, Eun-Hee; Lim, Seung-Taik; Kim, Sang Sook

    2012-06-01

    Rice is the only food item which is not liberalized in Korea. To prepare for future liberalization of the rice market in Korea, the physicochemical characteristics and consumer perception of four domestic rice samples were compared with those of 11 foreign rice samples. Additionally, the influences of country of origin (CO) and price on purchase intent (PI) and willingness to pay (WTP) were investigated. Consumer acceptance of rice samples from Japan was generally higher than that of rice samples from other countries. In an informed test, PI was affected by price and CO, while WTP was affected mostly by price. The PI decreased with the price provided while the WTP increased. In a blind test, consumers evaluated PI and WTP according to sensory liking. The PI was higher in the informed test than in the blind test in all domestic samples. Generally, consumer acceptance was highly correlated with fat acidity (r = - 0.76), protein content (r = - 0.72), and b value (r = - 0.64) of the rice samples. Further efforts to increase the quality of rice are recommended for survival in the global market after liberalization of rice, even though consumers showed loyalty for PI of domestic samples. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  15. Comparison of Nutrient Content and Cost of Home-Packed Lunches to Reimbursable School Lunch Nutrient Standards and Prices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Cara M.; Bednar, Carolyn; Kwon, Junehee; Gustof, Alissa

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare nutrient content and cost of home-packed lunches to nutrient standards and prices for reimbursable school lunches. Methods: Researchers observed food and beverage contents of 333 home packed lunches at four north Texas elementary schools. Nutritionist Pro was used to analyze lunches for calories,…

  16. Comparison of Nutrient Content and Cost of Home-Packed Lunches to Reimbursable School Lunch Nutrient Standards and Prices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Cara M.; Bednar, Carolyn; Kwon, Junehee; Gustof, Alissa

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare nutrient content and cost of home-packed lunches to nutrient standards and prices for reimbursable school lunches. Methods: Researchers observed food and beverage contents of 333 home packed lunches at four north Texas elementary schools. Nutritionist Pro was used to analyze lunches for calories,…

  17. Pricing Options.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenopir, Carol

    1998-01-01

    Presents results of a recent survey of over 100 public and academic libraries about pricing options from online companies. Most options fall into three categories: pay-as-you-go, fixed-rate, and user-based. Results are discussed separately for public and academic libraries and for consortial discounts. Trends in pricing options preferred by…

  18. Pricing Options.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenopir, Carol

    1998-01-01

    Presents results of a recent survey of over 100 public and academic libraries about pricing options from online companies. Most options fall into three categories: pay-as-you-go, fixed-rate, and user-based. Results are discussed separately for public and academic libraries and for consortial discounts. Trends in pricing options preferred by…

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  2. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  3. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  5. Performance comparison of the Prophecy (forecasting) Algorithm in FFT form for unseen feature and time-series prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaenisch, Holger; Handley, James

    2013-06-01

    We introduce a generalized numerical prediction and forecasting algorithm. We have previously published it for malware byte sequence feature prediction and generalized distribution modeling for disparate test article analysis. We show how non-trivial non-periodic extrapolation of a numerical sequence (forecast and backcast) from the starting data is possible. Our ancestor-progeny prediction can yield new options for evolutionary programming. Our equations enable analytical integrals and derivatives to any order. Interpolation is controllable from smooth continuous to fractal structure estimation. We show how our generalized trigonometric polynomial can be derived using a Fourier transform.

  6. Forecasting Skill

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    and in synoptic meteorology, many feel the improvements in forecasting the weather (clouds, winds , precipitation, and obstructions to vision) have...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I...rate of improve- ment of 10% as roughly comparable to the improvement rate obtained by the numerical models. The following types of forecasts seem to

  7. Exploration of approaches to adjusting brand-name drug prices in Mainland of China: based on comparison and analysis of some brand-name drug prices of Mainland and Taiwan, China.

    PubMed

    Weng, Geng; Han, Sheng; Pu, Run; Pan, Wynn H T; Shi, Luwen

    2014-01-01

    Under the circumstance of the New Medical Reform in Mainland of China, lowering drug prices has become an approach to relieving increase of medical expenses, and lowering brand-name medication price is a key strategy. This study, by comparing and analyzing brand-name medication prices between Mainland of China and Taiwan, explores how to adjust brand-name medication prices in Mainland of China in the consideration of the drug administrative strategies in Taiwan. By selecting brand-name drug with generic name and dose types matched in Mainland and Taiwan, calculate the average unit price and standard deviation and test it with the paired t-test. In the mean time, drug administrative strategies between Mainland and Taiwan are also compared systematically. Among the 70 brand-name medications with generic names and matched dose types, 54 are at higher prices in Mainland of China than Taiwan, which is statistically significant in t-test. Also, among the 47 medications with all of matched generic names, dose types, and manufacturing enterprises, 38 are at higher prices in Mainland than Taiwan, and the gap is also statistically significant in t-test. In Mainland of China, brand-name medication took cost-plus pricing and price-based price adjustment, while in Taiwan, brand-name medication took internal and external reference pricing and market-based price adjustment. Brand-name drug prices were higher in Mainland of China than in Taiwan. The adjustment strategies of drug prices are scientific in Taiwan and are worth reference by Mainland of China.

  8. ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

  9. Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Wei; Guo, Junqiao; An, Shuyi; Guan, Peng; Ren, Yangwu; Xia, Linzi; Zhou, Baosen

    2015-01-01

    Background Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS. Methods Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model. Results The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve. Conclusion Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS. PMID:26270814

  10. Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province, China.

    PubMed

    Wu, Wei; Guo, Junqiao; An, Shuyi; Guan, Peng; Ren, Yangwu; Xia, Linzi; Zhou, Baosen

    2015-01-01

    Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS. Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model. The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve. Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS.

  11. ASSESSMENT OF ETA-CMAQ FORECASTS OF PARTICULATE MATTER DISTRIBUTIONS THROUGH COMPARISONS WITH SURFACE NETWORK AND SPECIALIZED MEASUREMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    An air-quality forecasting (AQF) system based on the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP's) Eta model and the U.S. EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is used to simulate the distributions of tropospheric ...

  12. Economic prescribing of corticosteroid nasal sprays in Germany: comparison of mometasone and budesonide nasal sprays on the basis of the DDD, the PDD and reference prices.

    PubMed

    Becker, Beril; Kruppert, Silvia; Kostev, Karel

    2013-01-01

    on the actual consumption of the substances, there is no treatment-cost advantage for BNS in comparison to MNS from the statutory health insurer's point of view. By contrast, the reference-price adjustment results in a greater reduction of treatment costs for mometasone, so that in this case the statutory health insurer is able to tap economic reserves. Both the comparative parameters used for calculating the reference price and the DDD system are only conditionally suitable for tapping economic reserves for drugs.

  13. Oil demand and prices in the 1990s

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, S.P.A.; Phillips, K.R.

    1989-01-01

    Current oil prices are too low to be sustained in the 1990s. The authors forecast that by the year 2000, the price of oil (in 1988 dollars) could reach $30 to $40 per barrel; adjusted for inflation, these prices are about 60 to 80% of the peak price established in early 1981. They find that during the 1980s a slow adjustment process, encouraged by OPEC actions, reduced oil demand and put downward pressure on prices. They expect reversal of that process in the 1990s will work, with world economic expansion to boost oil demand and prices. 10 references, 6 figures, 2 tables.

  14. Numerical forecasting of radiation fog. Part II: A comparison of model simulation with several observed fog events

    SciTech Connect

    Guedalia, D.; Bergot, T. )

    1994-06-01

    A 1D model adapted for forecasting the formation and development of fog, and forced with mesoscale parameters derived from a 3D limited-area model, was used to simulate three fog event observations made during the Lille 88 campaign. The model simulation correctly reproduced the time of fog formation and its vertical development when forcing terms derived from observations were used. It determined the influence of different physical processes and in particular that of dew deposition. The initial conditions deduced from the 3D model proved to be correct in two of the three events. On the other hand, the prediction of advection terms necessary for forecasting the vertical growth of fog was a more delicate matter. 15 refs., 21 figs.

  15. Comparison between genetic programming and an ensemble Kalman filter as data assimilation techniques for probabilistic flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mediero, L.; Garrote, L.; Requena, A.; Chávez, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood events are among the natural disasters that cause most economic and social damages in Europe. Information and Communication Technology (ICT) developments in last years have enabled hydrometeorological observations available in real-time. High performance computing promises the improvement of real-time flood forecasting systems and makes the use of post processing techniques easier. This is the case of data assimilation techniques, which are used to develop an adaptive forecast model. In this paper, a real-time framework for probabilistic flood forecasting is presented and two data assimilation techniques are compared. The first data assimilation technique uses genetic programming to adapt the model to the observations as new information is available, updating the estimation of the probability distribution of the model parameters. The second data assimilation technique uses an ensemble Kalman filter to quantify errors in both hydrologic model and observations, updating estimates of system states. Both forecast models take the result of the hydrologic model calibration as a starting point and adapts the individuals of this first population to the new observations in each operation time step. Data assimilation techniques have great potential when are used in hydrological distributed models. The distributed RIBS (Real-time Interactive Basin Simulator) rainfall-runoff model was selected to simulate the hydrological process in the basin. The RIBS model is deterministic, but it is run in a probabilistic way through Monte Carlo simulations over the probability distribution functions that best characterise the most relevant model parameters, which were identified by a probabilistic multi-objective calibration developed in a previous work. The Manzanares River basin was selected as a case study. Data assimilation processes are computationally intensive. Therefore, they are well suited to test the applicability of the potential of the Grid technology to

  16. Drug pricing and control of health expenditures: a comparison between a proportional decision rule and a cost-per-QALY rule.

    PubMed

    Gandjour, Afschin

    2015-01-01

    In Germany, the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) makes recommendations for reimbursement prices of drugs on the basis of a proportional relationship between costs and health benefits. This paper analyzed the potential of IQWiG's decision rule to control health expenditures and used a cost-per-quality-adjusted life year (QALY) rule as a comparison. A literature search was conducted, and a theoretical model of health expenditure growth was built. The literature search shows that the median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of German cost-effectiveness analyses was €7650 per QALY gained, thus yielding a much lower threshold cost-effectiveness ratio for IQWiG's rule than an absolute rule at €30 000 per QALY. The theoretical model shows that IQWiG's rule is able to contain the long-term growth of health expenditures under the conservative assumption that future health increases at a constant absolute rate and that the threshold incremental cost-effectiveness ratio increases at a smaller rate than health expenditures. In contrast, an absolute rule offers the potential for manufacturers to raise drug prices in response to the threshold, thus resulting in an initial spike in expenditures. Results suggest that IQWiG's proportional rule will lead to lower drug prices and a slower growth of health expenditures than an absolute cost-effectiveness threshold at €30 000 per QALY. This finding is surprising as IQWiG's rule-in contrast to a cost-per-QALY rule-does not start from a fixed budget. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Consumer expectations for future gasoline prices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1983-05-01

    A key finding of this study is that consumer expectations respond to the volatility in retail gasoline prices. Historical price trends can be characterized as a series of rapid steps separated by varying periods of relative stability. The behavorial models investigated here imply that consumer response to downward steps is constrained by the effect of the longer-term (less volatile) trends. The response to upward steps is, however, essentially unconstrained in that it can be driven directly through the short-term price trend. The rough trajectory by which retail gasoline prices have climbed historically thus appears to sustain relatively high consumer expectations for future price levels. In a second point of divergence, analytical efforts also generally employ real price trends. While arguably the basis for decision-making by business planners and analysts, it does not necessarily hold that consumers discount nominal price trends for expected inflation rates in developing their year-ahead price forecasts. An initial review of the SRC data for expected real price increases (expected prices adjusted for the expected inflation rate) identified no consistent relationships, and generally lower correlations, with historical trends in real prices.

  18. Retrospective Evaluation of Appliance Price Trends

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, Larry; Antinori, Camille; McNeil, Michael; McMahon, James E.; Fujita, K. Sydny

    2008-07-20

    Real prices of major appliances (refrigerators, dishwashers, heating and cooling equipment) have been falling since the late 1970s despite increases in appliance efficiency and other quality variables. This paper demonstrates that historic increases in efficiency over time, including those resulting from minimum efficiency standards, incur smaller price increases than were expected by Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts made in conjunction with standards. This effect can be explained by technological innovation, which lowers the cost of efficiency, and by market changes contributing to lower markups and economies of scale in production of higher efficiency units. We reach four principal conclusions about appliance trends and retail price setting: 1. For the past several decades, the retail price of appliances has been steadily falling while efficiency has been increasing. 2. Past retail price predictions made by DOE analyses of efficiency standards, assuming constant prices over time, have tended to overestimate retail prices. 3. The average incremental price to increase appliance efficiency has declined over time. DOE technical support documents have typically overestimated this incremental price and retail prices. 4. Changes in retail markups and economies of scale in production of more efficient appliances may have contributed to declines in prices of efficient appliances.

  19. A Satellite Driven Real-time Forecasting Platform in the Upper Zambezi Basin: A Multi-model Comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Demaria, E. M.; Durcik, M.

    2015-12-01

    In large basins such as the Upper Zambezi where concentration times are of many days or even weeks, satellite precipitation products available in real-time become a key component enabling - with the use of hydrologic models - streamflow forecasts for downstream locations with enough lead time to inform decision-making. We present a real-time streamflow forecasting application based on this concept, using the TMPA and CMORPH rainfall products (which we bias-correct using the CHIRPS product) to force four distributed hydrologic models (VIC, HyMod, HBV, Sacramento) covering a variety of levels of model complexity. This study aims at establishing a multi-model satellite-based streamflow forecasting platform as a tool that can inform water management in real-time. This work is part of the efforts of the SERVIR Applied Sciences Team to bring NASA Earth Observation Applications into decision support tools for managing water resources in the Upper Zambezi, in collaboration with the Southern African Development Community Climate Services Center and the Zambezi Watercourse Commission.

  20. Understanding Price Formation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kadoya, Toshihisa; Sasaki, Tetsuo; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Ihara, Satoru

    The electricity price will influence the future growth and mix of generation capacity that will in turn influence the future electricity price, and therefore, it is important to understand how electricity price is formed as well as its short-term and long-term impacts on the economy. This paper describes evaluation of PJM day-ahead market bidding data and comparison of various electricity markets in terms of the market clearing price and volatility. The objective is to find critical factors and mechanisms determining the movements of electricity price. It was found that speculation by a small number of bidders can cause price spikes, that a Nash equilibrium may exist during a delayed response of the electricity price to a decline of the fuel price, and that the hydro generation with storage capability effectively stabilizes the electricity price.

  1. Comparison of streamflow prediction skills from NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT toward an ensemble flood forecasting framework over large scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajib, M. A.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Du, L.; Merwade, V.; Lin, P.

    2015-12-01

    Considering the differences in how individual models represent physical processes for runoff generation and streamflow routing, use of ensemble output is desirable in an operational streamflow estimation and flood forecasting framework. To enable the use of ensemble streamflow, comparison of multiple hydrologic models at finer spatial resolution over a large domain is yet to be explored. The objective of this work is to compare streamflow prediction skills from three different land surface/hydrologic modeling frameworks: NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT, over the Ohio River Basin with a drainage area of 491,000 km2. For a uniform comparison, all the three modeling frameworks share the same setup with common weather inputs, spatial resolution, and gauge stations being employed in the calibration procedure. The runoff output from NOAH-MP and VIC land surface models is routed through a vector-based river routing model named RAPID, that is set up on the high resolution NHDPlus reaches and catchments. SWAT model is used with its default tightly coupled surface-subsurface hydrology and channel routing components to obtain streamflow for each NHDPlus reach. Model simulations are performed in two modes, including: (i) hindcasting/calibration mode in which the models are calibrated against USGS daily streamflow observations at multiple locations, and (ii) validation mode in which the calibrated models are executed at 3-hourly time interval for historical flood events. In order to have a relative assessment on the model-specific nature of biases during storm events as well as dry periods, time-series of surface runoff and baseflow components at the specific USGS gauging locations are extracted from corresponding observed/simulated streamflow data using a recursive digital filter. The multi-model comparison presented here provides insights toward future model improvements and also serves as the first step in implementing an operational ensemble flood forecasting framework

  2. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Hinsch, Michael; Kaddar, Miloud; Schmitt, Sarah

    2014-05-08

    Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms.The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased medicine price transparency and have the

  3. Enhancing medicine price transparency through price information mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Medicine price information mechanisms provide an essential tool to countries that seek a better understanding of product availability, market prices and price compositions of individual medicines. To be effective and contribute to cost savings, these mechanisms need to consider prices in their particular contexts when comparing between countries. This article discusses in what ways medicine price information mechanisms can contribute to increased price transparency and how this may affect access to medicines for developing countries. Methods We used data collected during the course of a WHO project focusing on the development of a vaccine price and procurement information mechanism. The project collected information from six medicine price information mechanisms and interviewed data managers and technical experts on key aspects as well as observed market effects of these mechanisms. The reviewed mechanisms were broken down into categories including objective and target audience, as well as the sources, types and volumes of data included. Information provided by the mechanisms was reviewed according to data available on medicine prices, product characteristics, and procurement modalities. Results We found indications of positive effects on access to medicines resulting from the utilization of the reviewed mechanisms. These include the uptake of higher quality medicines, more favorable results from contract negotiations, changes in national pricing policies, and the decrease of prices in certain segments for countries participating in or deriving data from the various mechanisms. Conclusion The reviewed mechanisms avoid the methodological challenges observed for medicine price comparisons that only use national price databases. They work with high quality data and display prices in the appropriate context of procurement modalities as well as the peculiarities of purchasing countries. Medicine price information mechanisms respond to the need for increased

  4. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  5. Fishing Forecasts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    ROFFS stands for Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc. Roffer combines satellite and computer technology with oceanographic information from several sources to produce frequently updated charts sometimes as often as 30 times a day showing clues to the location of marlin, sailfish, tuna, swordfish and a variety of other types. Also provides customized forecasts for racing boats and the shipping industry along with seasonal forecasts that allow the marine industry to formulate fishing strategies based on foreknowledge of the arrival and departure times of different fish. Roffs service exemplifies the potential for benefits to marine industries from satellite observations. Most notable results are reduced search time and substantial fuel savings.

  6. The Myriad United States Price Indexes and Inflation Measures: A Primer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stratford, Jean Slemmons; Stratford, Juri

    1993-01-01

    Describes various inflationary measures, price indexes, and price deflators. Highlights include Bureau of Labor Statistics price indexes, including the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index; Bureau of Economic Analysis price deflators; the Cost of Living Index; and a comparison of measures of inflation. (27 references) (LRW)

  7. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  8. Comparison of Multiple Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for Warm-Season Flood Forecasting in the Colorado Front Range

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, H. A.; Vivoni, E. R.; Gochis, D. J.

    2010-12-01

    Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from ground and satellite platforms can potentially serve as input to hydrologic models used for flood forecasting in mountainous watersheds. This work compares the impact of ten different high-resolution (4-km and hourly) precipitation products on flood forecast skill in a large region of the Colorado Front Range. These products range from radar fields (Level II, Stage III and IV) to satellite estimates (HydroEstimator, AutoEstimator, Blend, GMSRA, PERSIANN-CCS). We examine QPE skill relative to ground rain gauges to detect error characteristics during the 2004 summer season which exhibited above-average precipitation accumulations in the region. We then quantify flood forecast skill by using the TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS) as an analysis tool in four mountain basins. The structural features of radar and satellite precipitation products determine the timing and magnitude of simulated summer floods in the study basins. Use of ground-based radar and multi-sensor satellite estimates minimize streamflow differences at the outlet locations compared to satellite-only QPEs which tend to underestimate total rainfall volumes, resulting in significant hydrologic response uncertainties. Given the generally low rainfall estimates from satellite-only products, a mean field bias correction is applied to all products and results are compared against non-corrected precipitation products. An exploratory analysis is conducted to assess precipitation volume differences between the bias-corrected and raw satellite products. Probability density functions of the differences allow examining the links between QPE bias, the diurnal precipitation cycle and topographic position. Analysis of the spatiotemporal precipitation and streamflow patterns help identify benefits and shortcomings of high-resolution QPEs for summer storms in mountainous areas.

  9. Adaptive use of technical indicators for the prediction of intra-day stock prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka-Yamawaki, Mieko; Tokuoka, Seiji

    2007-09-01

    We examine the effectiveness of frequently used technical indicators for intra-day forecast by applying them on the tick data of various stock prices. We show that the optimal combination of a few indicators chosen for each stock by using evolutional computation provides us a good forecast on the level of the future price at several ticks ahead.

  10. Forecasting Marine Corps Enlisted Attrition Through Parametric Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    OF PAGES 85 14. SUBJECT TERMS Forecasting, Attrition, Marine Corps NEAS losses, Gompertz Model, Survival Analysis 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY...18 1. Parametric Proportional Hazards Models ......................................18 2. Gompertz Models...19 a. Gompertz Hazard Function....................................................19 b. Gompertz Cumulative

  11. Recently released EIA report presents international forecasting data

    SciTech Connect

    1995-05-01

    This report presents information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Articles are included on international energy forecasting data, data on the use of home appliances, gasoline prices, household energy use, and EIA information products and dissemination avenues.

  12. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  13. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Method In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012–2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. Results According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (−€9,367 million), France

  14. Eta-CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts for O3 and Related Species Using Three Different Photochemical Mechanisms (CB4, CB05, SAPRC-99): Comparisons with Measurements During the 2004 ICARTT Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we compare the CB4, CB05 and SAPRC-99 mechanisms by examining the impact of these different chemical mechanisms on the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model simulations for O3 and its related precursors over the eastern US through comparisons with the inte...

  15. Eta-CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts for O3 and Related Species Using Three Different Photochemical Mechanisms (CB4, CB05, SAPRC-99): Comparisons with Measurements During the 2004 ICARTT Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    In this study, we compare the CB4, CB05 and SAPRC-99 mechanisms by examining the impact of these different chemical mechanisms on the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model simulations for O3 and its related precursors over the eastern US through comparisons with the inte...

  16. A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions. [cyclone Numerical Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alpert, J. C.; Chen, T.-C.

    1979-01-01

    Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

  17. A comparison of limited-area energetic processes between observations and primitive equation model predictions. [cyclone Numerical Weather Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alpert, J. C.; Chen, T.-C.

    1979-01-01

    Energetic analyses of the NMC initial conditions and NMC six-layer primitive equation operational prediction model 12-hr forecast for a developing cyclone are presented. Consideration is given to the total kinetic energy, the energetics of the divergent and nondivergent flows and the baroclinic (vertical shear flow) and barotropic (vertical mean flow) components of the kinetic energy. It is found that the model initial conditions lose 10-15% of the kinetic energy at various levels compared to a limited-area multivariate statistical analysis of the observational data, leading to a decrease in the horizontal kinetic energy flux, a misrepresentation of the synoptic scale wave system in the 12-hr forecast. Similar results are obtained for the nondivergent flow, while the divergent flow energetics are not reproduced accurately by the model. The horizontal flux terms of the vertical mean and vertical shear energetics are also not found to be reproduced in the upper levels, although horizontal flux contributions to the baroclinic component are improved at middle and lower levels. Finally, vertical shear kinetic energy generation is found to be well represented in the model prediction, however kinetic energy conversion between vertical shear and mean flow is not reproduced in the lower layer.

  18. 22 CFR 518.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2012-04-01 2009-04-01 true Cost and price analysis. 518.45 Section 518.45... Requirements Procurement Standards § 518.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations submitted...

  19. 22 CFR 518.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2011-04-01 2009-04-01 true Cost and price analysis. 518.45 Section 518.45... Requirements Procurement Standards § 518.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations submitted...

  20. 49 CFR 19.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Cost and price analysis. 19.45 Section 19.45... Requirements Procurement Standards § 19.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations submitted...

  1. 49 CFR 19.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Cost and price analysis. 19.45 Section 19.45... Requirements Procurement Standards § 19.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations...

  2. 22 CFR 518.45 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Cost and price analysis. 518.45 Section 518.45... Requirements Procurement Standards § 518.45 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations...

  3. 7 CFR 550.47 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Cost and price analysis. 550.47 Section 550.47... Agreements Procurement Standards § 550.47 Cost and price analysis. Some form of cost or price analysis shall... analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price quotations...

  4. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... DOE/EIA Energy Data Report entitled Cost and Quality of Fuels for Electric Utility Plants (Annual... steam electric plants. Prices paid for No. 6 fuel oil include prices paid for minor amounts of No. 4 and No. 5 fuel oil, crude and topped crude. Type of fuel FPC form No. 423 price data 1 1976 1977 1978...

  5. World oil prices and economic growth in the 1980s

    SciTech Connect

    Jacoby, H.D.; Paddock, J.L.

    1983-04-01

    The world oil market is a forecaster's nightmare. The authors' approach is to use an analytical model that rules out certain combinations of possible events, thus forming a window to the future based on assumptions about demand and supply responses, OPEC behavior, price conditions, and the effects of oil price on world economic growth. 18 references, 5 figures.

  6. Reference pricing and firms' pricing strategies.

    PubMed

    Miraldo, Marisa

    2009-01-01

    Within a horizontal differentiation model and allowing for heterogeneous qualities, we analyze the effects of reference pricing reimbursement on firms' pricing strategies. With this analysis we find inherent incentives for firms' pricing behavior, and consequently we shed some light on the time consistency of such policy. The analysis encompasses different reference price rules: (i) reference price as the minimum of the observed prices in the market, (ii) reference price as a linear combination of firms' prices. Results show that under the "minimum policy" firms are not able to coordinate on higher prices while the "linear policy", implicitly, provides a coordination device. We have also found that, relatively to the "linear policy", when the reference price is the minimum of observed prices, after policy implementation, total and private expenditures are higher and consumer surplus and firms' profits are lower. With quality differentiation both the minimum and linear policies unambiguously lead to higher prices.

  7. 48 CFR 570.110 - Cost or pricing data and information other than cost or pricing data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... to and waivers for submitting cost or pricing data. Most leasing actions will have adequate price competition. For price analysis, you may use a market survey or an appraisal conducted using accepted real property appraisal procedures to establish a market price for comparison. (c) In exceptional cases,...

  8. Trend estimation and univariate forecast of the sunspot numbers: Development and comparison of ARMA, ARIMA and Autoregressive Neural Network models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chattopadhyay, Surajit; Jhajharia, Deepak; Chattopadhyay, Goutami

    2011-07-01

    In the present study, a prominent 11-year cycle, supported by the pattern of the autocorrelation function and measures of Euclidean distances, in the mean annual sunspot number time series has been observed by considering the sunspot series for the duration of 1749 to 2007. The trend in the yearly sunspot series, which is found to be non-normally distributed, is examined through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. A statistically significant increasing trend is observed in the sunspot series in annual duration. The results indicate that the performance of the autoregressive neural network-based model is much better than the autoregressive moving average and autoregressive integrated moving average-based models for the univariate forecast of the yearly mean sunspot numbers.

  9. A Feasibility Study of Medium-term Earthquake Forecasting Using Numerical Earthquake Simulators: Comparison to the WGCEP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morein, G.; Rundle, J.; van Aalsburg, J.; Turcotte, D.; Grant-Ludwig, L.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K.; Klein, W.

    2008-12-01

    We have carried out simulations for earthquakes on models of California's fault system (Virtual California -- "VC") for simulation runs over time intervals from tens of thousands of years to millions of years. Using these simulations, we have now developed techniques to assimilate observed earthquake variability into the simulations. Our technique is based on mining the simulation data to identify time intervals that look most like the recent past history of earthquakes on the California fault system. We then use these optimal time intervals to "look into the future" and forecast the likely locations of future major earthquakes. We note that the parameters that enter into the model are set using the long term average properties of the fault system -- earthquake and plate rate variability are not used at this stage of the simulation. Here we describe this method and carry out a feasibility study of its application. We develop fault-based relative spatial probabilities that can be compared with recent results from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2008). Both VC and WGCEP forecast elevated relative probabilities for the Southern San Andreas fault (40.4% VC; 35.5% WGCEP). However, the relative probabilities are significantly different for the Northern San Andreas fault (22.6% VC; 12.7% WGCEP); the Calaveras fault (13.5% VC; 4.2% WGCEP); the Hayward-Rodgers Creek faults (5.0% VC; 18.7% WGCEP); and the San Jacinto fault (10.5% VC; 18.7% WGCEP). An important qualification is that since our model has not been systematically validated, these first probabilistic results should be treated with caution.

  10. Test application of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications

    SciTech Connect

    Wegley, H.L.; Formica, W.J.

    1983-07-01

    The test application of the semi-objective (S-O) wind forecasting technique at three locations is described. The forecasting sites are described as well as site-specific forecasting procedures. Verification of the S-O wind forecasts is presented, and the observed verification results are interpreted. Comparisons are made between S-O wind forecasting accuracy and that of two previous forecasting efforts that used subjective wind forecasts and model output statistics. (LEW)

  11. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  12. What factors affect the prices of low-priced U.S. solar PV systems?

    DOE PAGES

    Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan; ...

    2017-08-09

    The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors that determine prices in these low-priced (LP) systems. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for LP systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers-a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels-is associated with lower prices for LP systemsmore » but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger price-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. Furthermore, these results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.« less

  13. Forecasting Future Social Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abt, Clark C.

    1971-01-01

    Describes briefly why social forecasting is easier than technological forecasting, offers four approaches to social forecasting (judgment, extrapolation, speculation, analysis), and suggests a procedure recommended for social forecasting. (CJ)

  14. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  15. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  16. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  17. Financial comparison of time-of-use pricing with technical DSM programs and generating plants as electric-utility resource options

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, L.J.

    1994-04-01

    Changing electricity prices to more closely reflect production costs has a significant impact on the consumption of electricity. It is known, for example, that most of the efficiency gains in the electric power sectors of the industrialized world since the first international oil price shock in 1973 are attributable to the rising trend of electricity prices. This was due to the rising average price of electricity. Because of the unique characteristics of producing electricity, its marginal cost is higher than its average cost during many hours of the day. This study shows that, for utilities not reflecting these cost differences in their rates, there is ample room to satisfy a portion of their resource needs by exploiting the load-shaping properties of time-of-use (TOU) rates. Satisfying a portion of resource requirements by implementing a TOU-pricing program, however, is not costless. Metering and administering TOU pricing requires a financial commitment by an electric utility. And the commitment has an opportunity cost. That is, the funds could be used to construct generating plants or run DSM programs (other than a TOU-pricing program) and satisfy the same resource needs that TOU pricing does. The question addressed in this study is whether a utility is better-served financially by (i) implementing TOU pricing or (ii) running technical DSM programs and building power plants. The answer is that TOU pricing compares favorably on a financial basis with other resources under a wide set of conditions that real-world utilities confront.

  18. Medium-term Earthquake Forecasting with Numerical Earthquake Simulators: A Feasibility Study with a Comparison to the WGCEP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; van Aalsburg, J.; Morein, G.; Turcotte, D. L.; Grant-Ludwig, L.; Donnellan, A.; Tiampo, K. F.; Klein, W.

    2008-12-01

    Topologically realistic earthquake simulations are now possible using numerical codes such as Virtual California (VC). Currently, VC is written in modern object-oriented C++ code, and runs under MPI-II protocols on parallel HPC machines such as the NASA Columbia supercomputer. In VC, an earthquake fault system is modeled by a large number of Boundary Elements interacting by means of linear elasticity. A friction law is prescribed for each boundary element, and the faults are driven at a stressing rate that is consistent with their observed long-term average offset rate. We note that the parameters that enter into the model are set using the long term average properties of the fault system -- earthquake and plate rate variability are not used at this stage of the simulation. We have carried out simulations for earthquakes on models of California's fault system for simulation runs over time intervals from tens of thousands of years to millions of years. Using these simulations, we have now developed techniques to assimilate observed earthquake variability into the simulations. Our technique is based on mining the simulation data to identify time intervals that look most like the recent past history of earthquakes on the California fault system. We then use these optimal time intervals to "look into the future" and forecast the likely locations of future major earthquakes. Here we describe this method and carry out a feasibility study of its application. We develop fault-based relative spatial probabilities that can be compared with recent results from the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2008). Both VC and WGCEP forecast elevated relative probabilities for the Southern San Andreas fault (40.4% VC; 35.5% WGCEP). However, the relative probabilities are significantly different for the Northern San Andreas fault (22.6% VC; 12.7% WGCEP); the Calaveras fault (13.5% VC; 4.2% WGCEP); the Hayward-Rodgers Creek faults (5.0% VC; 18.7% WGCEP); and the

  19. A Comparison of Residual Analysis Methods for Space-time Point Processes with Applications to Earthquake Forecast Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clements, Robert Alan

    Modern, powerful techniques for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point process models are reviewed and their power under various null and alternative hypotheses is compared. Residual methods can be divided into two schemes: transformation-based and pixel-based methods. Rescaling, thinning and superposition are useful transformation-based methods for the residual analysis of spatial-temporal point processes. These techniques involve transforming the original point process into a new process that should be a homogeneous Poisson process if and only if the fitted model is correct, so that one may inspect the residual process for homogeneity using standard tests for homogeneity as a means of assessing the goodness-of-fit of the model. Unfortunately, tests of homogeneity performed on residuals based on these three residual methods tend to have low power when the modeled conditional intensity of the original process is volatile. For such purposes, we propose the method of super-thinning, which combines thinned residuals and superposition. This technique involves the use of a tuning parameter, k, which controls how much thinning and superposition are performed to homogenize the process. The method is applied to the assessment of a parametric space-time point process model for the origin times and epicentral locations of recent major California earthquakes. These residual methods are then applied to California earthquake forecast models used in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Assessments of these earthquake forecasting models have previously been performed using simple, low-power means such as the L-test and N-test. We instead propose using the transformation residual methods for model assessment, and the pixel-based methods, such as Pearson and deviance residuals, to compare competing models. The different residual analysis techniques are demonstrated using the CSEP models and are used to highlight certain deficiencies in the

  20. Long-range forecast of all India summer monsoon rainfall using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system: skill comparison with CFSv2 model simulation and real-time forecast for the year 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, S.; Das, D.; Goswami, S.; Das, S. K.

    2016-11-01

    All India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) characteristics play a vital role for the policy planning and national economy of the country. In view of the significant impact of monsoon system on regional as well as global climate systems, accurate prediction of summer monsoon rainfall has become a challenge. The objective of this study is to develop an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for long range forecast of AISMR. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of temperature, zonal and meridional wind at different pressure levels have been taken to construct the input matrix of ANFIS. The membership of the input parameters for AISMR as high, medium or low is estimated with trapezoidal membership function. The fuzzified standardized input parameters and the de-fuzzified target output are trained with artificial neural network models. The forecast of AISMR with ANFIS is compared with non-hybrid multi-layer perceptron model (MLP), radial basis functions network (RBFN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The forecast error analyses of the models reveal that ANFIS provides the best forecast of AISMR with minimum prediction error of 0.076, whereas the errors with MLP, RBFN and MLR models are 0.22, 0.18 and 0.73 respectively. During validation with observations, ANFIS shows its potency over the said comparative models. Performance of the ANFIS model is verified through different statistical skill scores, which also confirms the aptitude of ANFIS in forecasting AISMR. The forecast skill of ANFIS is also observed to be better than Climate Forecast System version 2. The real-time forecast with ANFIS shows possibility of deficit (65-75 cm) AISMR in the year 2015.

  1. Information Forecasting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  2. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  3. Reasonable Forecasts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Kelley R.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a sample legal battle that illustrates school officials' "reasonable forecasts" of substantial disruption in the school environment. In 2006, two students from a Texas high school came to school carrying purses decorated with images of the Confederate flag. The school district has a zero-tolerance policy for…

  4. Turbulence forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, C. L.

    1987-01-01

    In order to forecast turbulence, one needs to have an understanding of the cause of turbulence. Therefore, an attempt is made to show the atmospheric structure that often results when aircraft encounter moderate or greater turbulence. The analysis is based on thousands of hours of observations of flights over the past 39 years of aviation meteorology.

  5. Comparison of the performance of hydrological flow routing methods used for flow forecasting on the Morava River in Slovakia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spál, Peter; Danáčová, Michaela; Úrek, Peter Å.; Szolgay, Jan

    2010-05-01

    Beside numerical hydraulic models, as a rational alternative to hydraulic routing, models belonging to the class of non-storage routing methods and conceptual hydrological models are still in operational use in Slovakia. In this contribution the forecasting performance of several hydrologic routing models was compared. First two alternatives to standard non-storage routing on the Morava River were tested. In these both governing relationships (the relationship between the travel time of flood peaks and discharge and the relationship between upstream and downstream peak discharges) were modelled by empirical engineering estimates, multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks. The relationships between flood peak travel times and discharge were also used as indicators for the change of the travel time parameter of the Kalinin Miljukov flood routing model with discharge. In this model the model travel-time parameter vs. discharge relationship was also assessed by optimisation of the model performance with the help of a genetic algorithm. The performance of the models was compared against existing approaches used in practice near simulated environment. The results showed that the inclusion of empirical information on the variability of the travel-time with discharge into all models enabled the prediction of flood propagation with satisfactory accuracy.

  6. Comparison of the Effects of RAS vs. Kain-Fritsch Convective Schemes on Katrina Forecasts with GEOS-5

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, Timothy L.; Cohen, Charles; Paxton, Jessica; Robertson, F. R. (Pete)

    2009-01-01

    Global forecasts were made with the 0.25-degree latitude version of GEOS-5, with the RAS scheme and with the Kain-Fritsch scheme. Examination was made of the Katrina (2005) hurricane simulation. Replacement of the RAS convective scheme with the K-F scheme results in a much more vigorous Katrina, closer to reality. Still, the result is not as vigorous as reality. In terms of wind maximum, the gap was closed by 50%. The result seems to be due to the RAS scheme drying out the boundary layer, thus hampering the grid-scale secondary circulation and attending cyclone development. The RAS case never developed a full warm core, whereas the K-F case did. Not shown here: The K-F scheme also resulted in a more vigorous storm than when GEOS-5 is run with no convective parameterization. Also not shown: An experiment in which the RAS firing level was moved up by 3 model levels resulted in a stronger, warm-core storm, though not as strong as the K-F case. Effects on storm track were noticed, but not studied.

  7. Statistical Earthquake Focal Mechanism Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    The new whole Earth focal mechanism forecast, based on the GCMT catalog, has been created. In the present forecast, the sum of normalized seismic moment tensors within 1000 km radius is calculated and the P- and T-axes for the focal mechanism are evaluated on the basis of the sum. Simultaneously we calculate an average rotation angle between the forecasted mechanism and all the surrounding mechanisms. This average angle shows tectonic complexity of a region and indicates the accuracy of the prediction. The method was originally proposed by Kagan and Jackson (1994, JGR). Recent interest by CSEP and GEM has motivated some improvements, particularly to extend the previous forecast to polar and near-polar regions. The major problem in extending the forecast is the focal mechanism calculation on a spherical surface. In the previous forecast as our average focal mechanism was computed, it was assumed that longitude lines are approximately parallel within 1000 km radius. This is largely accurate in the equatorial and near-equatorial areas. However, when one approaches the 75 degree latitude, the longitude lines are no longer parallel: the bearing (azimuthal) difference at points separated by 1000 km reach about 35 degrees. In most situations a forecast point where we calculate an average focal mechanism is surrounded by earthquakes, so a bias should not be strong due to the difference effect cancellation. But if we move into polar regions, the bearing difference could approach 180 degrees. In a modified program focal mechanisms have been projected on a plane tangent to a sphere at a forecast point. New longitude axes which are parallel in the tangent plane are corrected for the bearing difference. A comparison with the old 75S-75N forecast shows that in equatorial regions the forecasted focal mechanisms are almost the same, and the difference in the forecasted focal mechanisms rotation angle is close to zero. However, though the forecasted focal mechanisms are similar

  8. What Factors Affect the Prices of Low-Priced U.S. Solar PV Systems?

    SciTech Connect

    Nemet, Gregory F.; O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Wiser, Ryan; Darghouth, Naïm R.; Barbose, Galen; Gillingham, Ken; Rai, Varun

    2016-08-01

    The price of solar PV systems has declined rapidly, yet there are some much lower-priced systems than others. This study explores the factors leading some systems to be so much lower priced than others. Using a data set of 42,611 residential-scale PV systems installed in the U.S. in 2013, we use quantile regressions to estimate the importance of factors affecting the installed prices for low-priced (LP) systems (those at the 10th percentile) in comparison to median-priced systems. We find that the value of solar to consumers–a variable that accounts for subsidies, electric rates, and PV generation levels–is associated with lower prices for LP systems but higher prices for median priced systems. Conversely, systems installed in new home construction are associated with lower prices at the median but higher prices for LP. Other variables have larger cost-reducing effects on LP than on median priced systems: systems installed in Arizona and Florida, as well as commercial and thin film systems. In contrast, the following have a smaller effect on prices for LP systems than median priced systems: tracking systems, self-installations, systems installed in Massachusetts, the system size, and installer experience. These results highlight the complex factors at play that lead to LP systems and shed light into how such LP systems can come about.

  9. State energy price projections for the residential sector, 1993--1994

    SciTech Connect

    1993-11-01

    The purpose of tills report, State Energy Price Projections for the Residential Sector, 1993--1994, is to provide projections of State-level residential prices for 1993 and 1994 for the following fuels: electricity, natural gas, heating oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and coal. Prices for 1992 are also included for comparison purposes. This report also explains the methodology used to produce estimates and the limitations. This report is provided at the request of the Administration for Children and Families, US Department of Health and Human Services, which provides State grants to assist eligible households in meeting the costs of home energy use for space heating or cooling under the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). Funds for LIHEAP are allocated according to each State`s share of home energy expenditures by low income households, if Congress allocates more than $1.975 billion for LIHEAP. Whenever less than $1.975 billion is allocated for LIHEAP, funds are allocated based on the allotment percentages for fiscal year 1984. This has been the case for the last several years. Each State`s share of the funds above $1.975 billion is determined using a formula based, in part, on the price estimates in this report. Several data sources and factors are used in deriving estimates on each State`s share of home energy expenditures by low-income households. One such factor is State-level residential energy prices. The State-level residential energy price projections presented in this report are derived from a set of forecasting equations estimated for each State, based on annual time series data from the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) database, the EIA Natural Gas Monthly (NGM), the EIA Petroleum Marketing Annual (PMA), and the EIA Electric Power Monthly (EPM).

  10. Fuel price projections by end-use sector for Illinois and the Midwest Region. [AREPS

    SciTech Connect

    South, D.W.; Macal, C.M.; Bragen, M.J.; McDonald, J.F.

    1985-01-01

    A systematic method devised to translate national energy price projections by fuel type and sector into regional and state-level prices is documented. The Argonne Regional Energy Price Simulator (AREPS) prepares regional and state-level projections of delivered energy prices by fuel and end-use sector starting in 1980. The AREPS system forecasts energy prices to the year 2030. Using national price levels by fuel type and sector, AREPS transforms these values into regional or state prices with an expected weighted average price differential (state-to-nation or region-to-nation, depending on the application) specific to each fuel and sector. The initial price differential is based on a three-year weighted average of historical price differentials. This differential is scaled over time to reflect a tendency for the expected value of projected prices to generally regress toward the national mean. This convergence is consistent with recent trends discovered through empirical examination. The scale factors applied to the price differentials account for these phenomena, although they do not cause complete convergence with national prices, even in the long run. Some spatial price differentiation is preserved. Section 2 describes the methodological and basic design features of AREPS; the algorithm is delineated in Section 3. Fuel prices by end-use sector of the Midwest in 1973 and 1980 are then projected to 2010 in Sections 4 and 5. An informal survey of fuel price forecasts available from state energy offices in included as well as conclusions.

  11. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  12. TRAVEL FORECASTER

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mauldin, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    Business travel planning within an organization is often a time-consuming task. Travel Forecaster is a menu-driven, easy-to-use program which plans, forecasts cost, and tracks actual vs. planned cost for business-related travel of a division or branch of an organization and compiles this information into a database to aid the travel planner. The program's ability to handle multiple trip entries makes it a valuable time-saving device. Travel Forecaster takes full advantage of relational data base properties so that information that remains constant, such as per diem rates and airline fares (which are unique for each city), needs entering only once. A typical entry would include selection with the mouse of the traveler's name and destination city from pop-up lists, and typed entries for number of travel days and purpose of the trip. Multiple persons can be selected from the pop-up lists and multiple trips are accommodated by entering the number of days by each appropriate month on the entry form. An estimated travel cost is not required of the user as it is calculated by a Fourth Dimension formula. With this information, the program can produce output of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for either organization or sub-entity of an organization; or produce outputs of trips by month with subtotal and total cost for international-only travel. It will also provide monthly and cumulative formats of planned vs. actual outputs in data or graph form. Travel Forecaster users can do custom queries to search and sort information in the database, and it can create custom reports with the user-friendly report generator. Travel Forecaster 1.1 is a database program for use with Fourth Dimension Runtime 2.1.1. It requires a Macintosh Plus running System 6.0.3 or later, 2Mb of RAM and a hard disk. The standard distribution medium for this package is one 3.5 inch 800K Macintosh format diskette. Travel Forecaster was developed in 1991. Macintosh is a registered trademark of

  13. Forecaster's dilemma: Extreme events and forecast evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lerch, Sebastian; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Gneiting, Tilmann

    2015-04-01

    In discussions of the quality of forecasts in the media and public, attention often focuses on the predictive performance in the case of extreme events. Intuitively, accurate predictions on the subset of extreme events seem to suggest better predictive ability. However, it can be demonstrated that restricting conventional forecast verification methods to subsets of observations might have unexpected and undesired effects and may discredit even the most skillful forecasters. Hand-picking extreme events is incompatible with the theoretical assumptions of established forecast verification methods, thus confronting forecasters with what we refer to as the forecaster's dilemma. For probabilistic forecasts, weighted proper scoring rules provide suitable alternatives for forecast evaluation with an emphasis on extreme events. Using theoretical arguments, simulation experiments and a case study on probabilistic forecasts of wind speed over Germany, we illustrate the forecaster's dilemma and the use of weighted proper scoring rules.

  14. Flood Forecasting in Wales: Challenges and Solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    How, Andrew; Williams, Christopher

    2015-04-01

    With steep, fast-responding river catchments, exposed coastal reaches with large tidal ranges and large population densities in some of the most at-risk areas; flood forecasting in Wales presents many varied challenges. Utilising advances in computing power and learning from best practice within the United Kingdom and abroad have seen significant improvements in recent years - however, many challenges still remain. Developments in computing and increased processing power comes with a significant price tag; greater numbers of data sources and ensemble feeds brings a better understanding of uncertainty but the wealth of data needs careful management to ensure a clear message of risk is disseminated; new modelling techniques utilise better and faster computation, but lack the history of record and experience gained from the continued use of more established forecasting models. As a flood forecasting team we work to develop coastal and fluvial forecasting models, set them up for operational use and manage the duty role that runs the models in real time. An overview of our current operational flood forecasting system will be presented, along with a discussion on some of the solutions we have in place to address the challenges we face. These include: • real-time updating of fluvial models • rainfall forecasting verification • ensemble forecast data • longer range forecast data • contingency models • offshore to nearshore wave transformation • calculation of wave overtopping

  15. Review of alternative measures of softwood sawtimber prices in the United States

    Treesearch

    Henry Spelter

    2005-01-01

    This study compares prices from various timber market reports and an estimate of timber value derived from product-selling prices and manufacturing costs. In the South, two primary sources of timber price information are Forest2Market (F2M) and Timber Mart-South (TMS). Comparisons showed that F2M prices are generally higher than TMS prices for both stumpage and...

  16. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  17. Modeling and simulation of consumer response to dynamic pricing.

    SciTech Connect

    Valenzuela, J.; Thimmapuram, P.; Kim, J

    2012-08-01

    Assessing the impacts of dynamic-pricing under the smart grid concept is becoming extremely important for deciding its full deployment. In this paper, we develop a model that represents the response of consumers to dynamic pricing. In the model, consumers use forecasted day-ahead prices to shift daily energy consumption from hours when the price is expected to be high to hours when the price is expected to be low while maintaining the total energy consumption as unchanged. We integrate the consumer response model into the Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System (EMCAS). EMCAS is an agent-based model that simulates restructured electricity markets. We explore the impacts of dynamic-pricing on price spikes, peak demand, consumer energy bills, power supplier profits, and congestion costs. A simulation of an 11-node test network that includes eight generation companies and five aggregated consumers is performed for a period of 1 month. In addition, we simulate the Korean power system.

  18. Comparison of hourly solar radiation from ground-based station, remote sensing sensors and weather forecast models: A preliminary study, in a coastal site of South Italy (Lamezia Terme).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lo Feudo, Teresa; Avolio, Elenio; Gullì, Daniel; Federico, Stefano; Sempreviva, Annamaria; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta

    2015-04-01

    The solar radiation is a very complex parameter to cope with due to its random and nonlinear characteristics depending on changeable weather conditions and complex orography. Therefore it is a critical input parameter to address many climatic, meteorological, and solar energy issues. In this preliminary study we made an intercomparison between the hourly solar MSG SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared) data product DSSF(Down-welling Surface Short-wave Flux) developed by LSA SAF( Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility), a pyranometer sensor (CNR 4 Net Radiometer - Kipp&Zonen) and two weather forecast models. The solar radiation datasets were obtained from a pyranometer sensor situated in Weather Station of CNR ISAC Lamezia Terme(38,88 LAT 16,24 LON), a satellite based product DSSF with spatial resolution of 3km and outputs of two weather forecast models. Models adopted are WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) and Rams( Regional Atmospheric Modeling System)running operatively with a 3Km horizontal resolution. Both DSSF and model outputs are extracted at Latitude and Longitude previously defined. The solar radiation performance and accuracy are evaluated for datasets segmented into two atmospheric conditions clear and cloudy sky, and both conditions, additionally, for a quantitative analysis the exact acquisition times of satellite measurements was taken into account. The RMSE and BIAS for hourly, daily and monthly - averaged solar radiation are estimated including clear and sky conditions and snow or ice cover. Comparison between DSSF product, Solar Radiation ground based pyranometer measurements and output of two weather forecast models, made over the period June2013-December2013, showed a good agreement in this costal site and we demonstrated that the forecast models generally overestimate solar radiation respect the ground based sensor and DSSF product. As results in general the RMSE monthly-averaged are

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Natural Gas Consumption and Prices

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The natural gas consumption and price modules of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model are designed to provide consumption and end-use retail price forecasts for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in the nine Census districts and natural gas working inventories in three regions. Natural gas consumption shares and prices in each Census district are used to calculate an average U.S. retail price for each end-use sector.

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Natural Gas Consumption and Prices

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The natural gas consumption and price modules of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model are designed to provide consumption and end-use retail price forecasts for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in the nine Census districts and natural gas working inventories in three regions. Natural gas consumption shares and prices in each Census district are used to calculate an average U.S. retail price for each end-use sector.

  1. Naive vs. Sophisticated Methods of Forecasting Public Library Circulations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, Terrence A.

    1984-01-01

    Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

  2. Pricing Policies And Control of Tobacco in Europe (PPACTE) project: cross-national comparison of smoking prevalence in 18 European countries.

    PubMed

    Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; La Vecchia, Carlo; Boffetta, Paolo; Chaloupka, Frank J; Colombo, Paolo; Currie, Laura; Fernandez, Esteve; Fischbacher, Colin; Gilmore, Anna; Godfrey, Fiona; Joossens, Luk; Leon, Maria E; Levy, David T; Nguyen, Lien; Rosenqvist, Gunnar; Ross, Hana; Townsend, Joy; Clancy, Luke

    2014-05-01

    Limited data on smoking prevalence allowing valid between-country comparison are available in Europe. The aim of this study is to provide data on smoking prevalence and its determinants in 18 European countries. In 2010, within the Pricing Policies And Control of Tobacco in Europe (PPACTE) project, we conducted a face-to-face survey on smoking in 18 European countries (Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, England, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden) on a total of 18 056 participants, representative for each country of the population aged 15 years or older. Overall, 27.2% of the participants were current smokers (30.6% of men and 24.1% of women). Smoking prevalence was highest in Bulgaria (40.9%) and Greece (38.9%) and lowest in Italy (22.0%) and Sweden (16.3%). Smoking prevalence ranged between 15.7% (Sweden) and 44.3% (Bulgaria) for men and between 11.6% (Albania) and 38.1% (Ireland) for women. Multivariate analysis showed a significant inverse trend between smoking prevalence and the level of education in both sexes. Male-to-female smoking prevalence ratios ranged from 0.85 in Spain to 3.47 in Albania and current-to-ex prevalence ratios ranged from 0.68 in Sweden to 4.28 in Albania. There are considerable differences across Europe in smoking prevalence, and male-to-female and current-to-ex smoking prevalence ratios. Eastern European countries, lower income countries and those with less advanced tobacco control policies have less favourable smoking patterns and are at an earlier stage of the tobacco epidemic.

  3. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1986

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1988-01-01

    In 1986, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $47.20, a decrease of 6 percent from the 1985 price. The average price for a green ton of chipped residues also decreased, down 1 percent to $21.77. The average price for a green ton of sawdust fell to $10.25, 3 percent below the 1985 price. Between 1977 and 1986, real prices for roundwood fell, but real...

  4. Comparison of Monetary Policy Actions and Central Bank Communication on Tackling Asset Price Bubbles—Evidence from China’s Stock Market

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Ou; Liu, Zhixin

    2016-01-01

    We examine the different effects of monetary policy actions and central bank communication on China’s stock market bubbles with a Time-varying Parameter SVAR model. We find that with negative responses of fundamental component and positive responses of bubble component of asset prices, contractionary monetary policy induces the observed stock prices to rise during periods of large bubbles. By contrast, central bank communication acts on the market through expectation guidance and has more significant effects on stock prices in the long run, which implies that central bank communication be used as an effective long-term instrument for the central bank’s policymaking. PMID:27851796

  5. Valuing hydrological forecasts for a pumped storage assisted hydro facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guangzhi; Davison, Matt

    2009-07-01

    SummaryThis paper estimates the value of a perfectly accurate short-term hydrological forecast to the operator of a hydro electricity generating facility which can sell its power at time varying but predictable prices. The expected value of a less accurate forecast will be smaller. We assume a simple random model for water inflows and that the costs of operating the facility, including water charges, will be the same whether or not its operator has inflow forecasts. Thus, the improvement in value from better hydrological prediction results from the increased ability of the forecast using facility to sell its power at high prices. The value of the forecast is therefore the difference between the sales of a facility operated over some time horizon with a perfect forecast, and the sales of a similar facility operated over the same time horizon with similar water inflows which, though governed by the same random model, cannot be forecast. This paper shows that the value of the forecast is an increasing function of the inflow process variance and quantifies how much the value of this perfect forecast increases with the variance of the water inflow process. Because the lifetime of hydroelectric facilities is long, the small increase observed here can lead to an increase in the profitability of hydropower investments.

  6. Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bils, Mark; Klenow, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    We examine the frequency of price changes for 350 categories of goods and services covering about 70 percent of consumer spending, on the basis of unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 1995-97. In comparison with previous studies, we find much more frequent price changes, with haft of prices lasting less than 4.3 months. Even…

  7. 10 CFR 600.145 - Cost and price analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Cost and price analysis. 600.145 Section 600.145 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY (CONTINUED) ASSISTANCE REGULATIONS FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE RULES Uniform Administrative... procurement action. Price analysis may be accomplished in various ways, including the comparison of price...

  8. Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bils, Mark; Klenow, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    We examine the frequency of price changes for 350 categories of goods and services covering about 70 percent of consumer spending, on the basis of unpublished data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for 1995-97. In comparison with previous studies, we find much more frequent price changes, with haft of prices lasting less than 4.3 months. Even…

  9. Forecast Mekong

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Turnipseed, D. Phil

    2011-01-01

    Forecast Mekong is part of the U.S. Department of State's Lower Mekong Initiative, which was launched in 2009 by Secretary Hillary Clinton and the Foreign Ministers of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam to enhance partnerships between the U.S. and the Lower Mekong River countries in the areas of environment, health, education, and infrastructure. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is working in close cooperation with the U.S. Department of State to use research and data from the Lower Mekong Basin to provide hands-on results that will help decision makers in Lower Mekong River countries in the planning and design for restoration, conservation, and management efforts in the basin.

  10. Comparison of the ARMA, ARIMA, and the autoregressive artificial neural network models in forecasting the monthly inflow of Dez dam reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valipour, Mohammad; Banihabib, Mohammad Ebrahim; Behbahani, Seyyed Mahmood Reza

    2013-01-01

    SummaryThe goal of the present research is forecasting the inflow of Dez dam reservoir by using Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models while increasing the number of parameters in order to increase the forecast accuracy to four parameters and comparing them with the static and dynamic artificial neural networks. In this research, monthly discharges from 1960 to 2007 were used. The statistics related to first 42 years were used to train the models and the 5 past years were used to forecast. In ARMA and ARIMA models, the polynomial was derived respectively with four and six parameters to forecast the inflow. In the artificial neural network, the radial and sigmoid activity functions were used with several different neurons in the hidden layers. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE), dynamic artificial neural network model with sigmoid activity function and 17 neurons in the hidden layer was chosen as the best model for forecasting inflow of the Dez dam reservoir. Inflow of the dam reservoir in the 12 past months shows that ARIMA model had a less error compared with the ARMA model. Static and Dynamic autoregressive artificial neural networks with activity sigmoid function can forecast the inflow to the dam reservoirs from the past 60 months.

  11. Characterizing limit order prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Withanawasam, R. M.; Whigham, P. A.; Crack, Timothy Falcon

    2013-11-01

    A computational model of a limit order book is used to study the effect of different limit order distribution offsets. Reference prices such as same side/contra side best market prices and last traded price are considered in combination with different price offset distributions. We show that when characterizing limit order prices, varying the offset distribution only produces different behavior when the reference price is the contra side best price. Irrespective of the underlying mechanisms used in computing the limit order prices, the shape of the price graph and the behavior of the average order book profile distribution are strikingly similar in all the considered reference prices/offset distributions. This implies that existing averaging methods can cancel variabilities in limit order book shape/attributes and may be misleading.

  12. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1983

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1985-01-01

    The average price per cord for Midsouth roundwood pulpwood increased less than 1 percent to $48.38 in 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped mill residues fell 9.3 percent to $23.34. Sawdust prices averaged $13.04 per green ton, a 42.2 percent increase over 1982 prices. Prices for rail delivery of wood fiber continue to be slightly lower than truck...

  13. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1985

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1987-01-01

    In 1985, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $50.12, a decrease of less than 1 percent from the 1984 price. In contrast, the average price for a green ton of chipped residues decreased to $21.97, 14 percent below the price paid in 1984. The average price for a green ton of sawdust also fell in 1985, dropping 2 percent to $10.60. The 1985 expenditure...

  14. Comparison of three different methods of perturbing the potential vorticity field in mesoscale forecasts of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events: PV-gradient, PV-adjoint and PV-satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vich, M.; Romero, R.; Richard, E.; Arbogast, P.; Maynard, K.

    2010-09-01

    a forecast with the corresponding perturbed initial state (PV-satellite). The non hydrostatic MM5 mesoscale model has been used to run all forecasts. The simulations are performed for a two-day period with a 22.5 km resolution domain (Domain 1 in http://mm5forecasts.uib.es) nested in the ECMWF large-scale forecast fields. The MEDEX cyclone of 10 June 2000, also known as the Montserrat Case, is a suitable testbed to compare the performance of each ensemble and the PV-satellite method. This case is characterized by an Atlantic upper-level trough and low-level cold front which generated a stationary mesoscale cyclone over the Spanish Mediterranean coast, advecting warm and moist air toward Catalonia from the Mediterranean Sea. The consequences of the resulting mesoscale convective system were 6-h accumulated rainfall amounts of 180 mm with estimated material losses to exceed 65 million euros by media. The performace of both ensemble forecasting systems and PV-satellite technique for our case study is evaluated through the verification of the rainfall field. Since the EPSs are probabilistic forecasts and the PV-satellite is deterministic, their comparison is done using the individual ensemble members. Therefore the verification procedure uses deterministic scores, like the ROC curve, the Taylor diagram or the Q-Q plot. These scores cover the different quality attributes of the forecast such as reliability, resolution, uncertainty and sharpness. The results show that the PV-satellite technique performance lies within the performance range obtained by both ensembles; it is even better than the non-perturbed ensemble member. Thus, perturbing randomly using the PV error climatology and introducing the perturbations in the zones given by each EPS captures the mismatch between PV and WV fields better than manual perturbations made by an expert forecaster, at least for this case study.

  15. Cloud Forecast Simulation Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-10-01

    forecasts is described in terms of their "skill." The skill of weather forecasts varies according to the type of forecast being made (e.g., tornado warnings...are more difficult to make than cloud forecasts) and according to the location and time-of-year (because clima - tology exerts such a strong influence

  16. STATUS AND PROGRESS IN PARTICULATE MATTER FORECASTING: INITIAL APPLICATION OF THE ETA- CMAQ FORECAST MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation reviews the status and progress in forecasting particulate matter distributions. The shortcomings in representation of particulate matter formation in current atmospheric chemistry/transport models are presented based on analyses and detailed comparisons with me...

  17. Profitability of Using Forecasting Techniques in the Commodities Market

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-12-01

    PROJECT TASK IŘWORK UNIT ELEMENT NO NO NO ACCESSION NO. I - 1 rITLE (Include Security CIfafw cation) PROFITABILITY OF USING FORECASTING TECHNIQUES IN THE...that of the ARIMA models. By incorporating the ARIMA forecasts with the futures prices, it was concluded that a more profitable strategy for...SECURITY (:LASSI’CA ION f 7115 PA ll otrer edtzons are obsolete I Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Profitability of Using

  18. Exposure Forecaster

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure predictions. The database currently includes biomonitoring exposure data from three studies: the American Healthy Homes Survey, the First National Environmental Health Survey of Child Care Centers and the Children's Total Exposure to Persistent Pesticides and Other Persistent Organic Pollutants study. Data include the amounts of chemicals found in food, drinking water, air, dust indoor surfaces and urine. The database will eventually include high-throughput exposure predictions for thousands of chemicals based on manufacture and use information. EPA researchers developed high-throughput exposure models to predict exposures for 1,763 chemicals using production volume, environmental fate and transport models, and a simple indicator of consumer product use.The model is being improved by adding more refined indoor and consumer use information since these are also large determinants of exposure. As these models are refined and more exposure data is collected, it will be added to ExpoCastDB.

  19. How much are you prepared to PAY for a forecast?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Coughlan, Erin; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Bachofen, Carina; van Andel, Schalk Jan

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts are a crucial element of the decision-making chain in the field of flood prevention. The operational use of probabilistic forecasts is increasingly promoted through the development of new novel state-of-the-art forecast methods and numerical skill is continuously increasing. However, the value of such forecasts for flood early-warning systems is a topic of diverging opinions. Indeed, the word value, when applied to flood forecasting, is multifaceted. It refers, not only to the raw cost of acquiring and maintaining a probabilistic forecasting system (in terms of human and financial resources, data volume and computational time), but also and most importantly perhaps, to the use of such products. This game aims at investigating this point. It is a willingness to pay game, embedded in a risk-based decision-making experiment. Based on a ``Red Cross/Red Crescent, Climate Centre'' game, it is a contribution to the international Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX). A limited number of probabilistic forecasts will be auctioned to the participants; the price of these forecasts being market driven. All participants (irrespective of having bought or not a forecast set) will then be taken through a decision-making process to issue warnings for extreme rainfall. This game will promote discussions around the topic of the value of forecasts for decision-making in the field of flood prevention.

  20. A Comparison of the Tuition Price and Financial Aid Responsiveness of First-Time Enrollees and Continuing College Students. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Heller, Donald E.

    This study examined student price responsiveness by comparing the tuition and financial aid sensitivity of first-time college enrollees with that of continuing college students. Data were obtained from the National Center for Education Statistics Higher Education General Education Information Survey (HEGIS) and Integrated Postsecondary Education…

  1. Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

  2. Demand Forecasting: DLA’S Aviation Supply Chain High Value Products

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-09

    Operationalizing dynamic pricing models: Bayesian demand forecasting and customer choice modeling for low cost carriers. Augsburg, Germany: Springer...Officer at USS NIMITZ (CVN 68) and Naval Base Ventura County, CA  Operations Officer at Fleet Logistics Center Bahrain  Food Service Officer at USS...5,423,691.32 Potential Holding Cost Decrease = $14,510,135 (Note: sales price used in lieu of cost. Also, 53 units is this project’s forecast quantity for

  3. Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

    2015-02-01

    Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

  4. Improved Anvil Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lambert, Winifred C.

    2000-01-01

    This report describes the outcome of Phase 1 of the AMU's Improved Anvil Forecasting task. Forecasters in the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group have found that anvil forecasting is a difficult task when predicting LCC and FR violations. The purpose of this task is to determine the technical feasibility of creating an anvil-forecasting tool. Work on this study was separated into three steps: literature search, forecaster discussions, and determination of technical feasibility. The literature search revealed no existing anvil-forecasting techniques. However, there appears to be growing interest in anvils in recent years. If this interest continues to grow, more information will be available to aid in developing a reliable anvil-forecasting tool. The forecaster discussion step revealed an array of methods on how better forecasting techniques could be developed. The forecasters have ideas based on sound meteorological principles and personal experience in forecasting and analyzing anvils. Based on the information gathered in the discussions with the forecasters, the conclusion of this report is that it is technically feasible at this time to develop an anvil forecasting technique that will significantly contribute to the confidence in anvil forecasts.

  5. Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Anctil, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Perrin, Charles

    2010-05-01

    An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single estimate of the flow, for which no distribution is obtainable (the deterministic forecast). In the past years, efforts towards the development of probabilistic hydrological prediction systems were made with the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The additional information provided by the different available Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) was evaluated in a hydrological context on various case studies (see the review by Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). For example, the European ECMWF-EPS was explored in case studies by Roulin et al. (2005), Bartholmes et al. (2005), Jaun et al. (2008), and Renner et al. (2009). The Canadian EC-EPS was also evaluated by Velázquez et al. (2009). Most of these case studies investigate the ensemble predictions of a given hydrological model, set up over a limited number of catchments. Uncertainty from weather predictions is assessed through the use of meteorological ensembles. However, uncertainty from the tested hydrological model and statistical robustness of the forecasting system when coping with different hydro-meteorological conditions are less frequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance and the reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models applied to a large number of catchments in an operational ensemble forecasting context. Some of these models were evaluated in a previous study (Perrin et al. 2001) for their ability to simulate streamflow. Results demonstrated that very simple models can achieve a level of performance almost as high (sometimes higher) as models with more parameters. In the present study, we focus on the ability of the hydrological models to

  6. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  7. Probabilities of Possible Future Prices (Released in the STEO April 2010)

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

  8. Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Yao; Sridhar, Banavar

    2010-01-01

    intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

  9. State prescription drug price Web sites: how useful to consumers?

    PubMed

    Tu, Ha T; Corey, Catherine G

    2008-02-01

    To aid consumers in comparing prescription drug costs, many states have launched Web sites to publish drug prices offered by local retail pharmacies. The current push to make retail pharmacy prices accessible to consumers is part of a much broader movement to increase price transparency throughout the health-care sector. Efforts to encourage price-based shopping for hospital and physician services have encountered widespread concerns, both on grounds that prices for complex services are difficult to measure and compare accurately and that quality varies substantially across providers. Experts agree, however, that prescription drugs are much easier to shop for than other, more complex health services. However, extensive gaps in available price information--the result of relying on Medicaid data--seriously hamper the effectiveness of state drug price-comparison Web sites, according to a new study by the Center for Studying Health System Change (HSC). An alternative approach--requiring pharmacies to submit price lists to the states--would improve the usefulness of price information, but pharmacies typically oppose such a mandate. Another limitation of most state Web sites is that price information is restricted to local pharmacies, when online pharmacies, both U.S. and foreign, often sell prescription drugs at substantially lower prices. To further enhance consumer shopping tools, states might consider expanding the types of information provided, including online pharmacy comparison tools, lists of deeply discounted generic drugs offered by discount retailers, and lists of local pharmacies offering price matches.

  10. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  11. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1987

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1990-01-01

    In 1987, the average price per cord of Midsouth pulpwood was $47.47, an increase of less than 1 percent from the 1988 price. The average price per green ton of chipped residues decreased less than 1 percent to $2164. The average price of other residues remained at $10.25 per green ton. The total expenditure for pulpwood in the Midsouth increased approximately 1...

  12. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1984

    Treesearch

    Dennis M. May

    1986-01-01

    In 1984, the average price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $50.55, an increase of 4.5 percent from 1983. The average price for a green ton of chipped residues also increased, up 9.0 percent to $25.44. However, the average price for a green ton of sawdust fell 17.3 percent to $10.79. Rail delivery prices for wood fiber continue to be lower than truck delivery...

  13. Forecasting Three-Month Outcomes in a Laboratory School Comparison of Mixed Amphetamine Salts Extended Release (Adderall XR) and Atomoxetine (Strattera) in School-Aged Children with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faraone, Stephen V.; Wigal, Sharon B.; Hodgkins, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Compare observed and forecasted efficacy of mixed amphetamine salts extended release (MAS-XR; Adderall) with atomoxetine (Strattera) in ADHD children. Method: The authors analyze data from a randomized, double-blind, multicenter, parallel-group, forced-dose-escalation laboratory school study of children ages 6 to 12 with ADHD combined…

  14. Forecasting Three-Month Outcomes in a Laboratory School Comparison of Mixed Amphetamine Salts Extended Release (Adderall XR) and Atomoxetine (Strattera) in School-Aged Children with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Faraone, Stephen V.; Wigal, Sharon B.; Hodgkins, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Compare observed and forecasted efficacy of mixed amphetamine salts extended release (MAS-XR; Adderall) with atomoxetine (Strattera) in ADHD children. Method: The authors analyze data from a randomized, double-blind, multicenter, parallel-group, forced-dose-escalation laboratory school study of children ages 6 to 12 with ADHD combined…

  15. Why Are Product Prices in Online Markets Not Converging?

    PubMed Central

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers’ clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers’ preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking. PMID:24015219

  16. Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

    PubMed

    Mizuno, Takayuki; Watanabe, Tsutomu

    2013-01-01

    Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

  17. Demand and Price Outlook for Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, 2000

    EIA Publications

    1999-01-01

    Phase 2 of the U.S. reformulated gasoline program begins at the end of this year. This article, published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1999, provides a forecast and analysis of the demand and price for Phase 2 reformulated gasoline for the year 2000.

  18. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  19. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  20. Simulating Price-Taking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engelhardt, Lucas M.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, the author presents a price-takers' market simulation geared toward principles-level students. This simulation demonstrates that price-taking behavior is a natural result of the conditions that create perfect competition. In trials, there is a significant degree of price convergence in just three or four rounds. Students find this…

  1. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  2. Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and air quality forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleary, P. A.; Fuhrman, N.; Schulz, L.; Schafer, J.; Fillingham, J.; Bootsma, H.; Langel, T.; Williams, E. J.; Brown, S. S.

    2014-09-01

    Air quality forecast models typically predict large ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the National Air Quality Forecast System. From 2008-2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008-2010 measurements of ambient ozone conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI and Muskegon, MI up to 6 times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature but with highest differences during evening and night. Concurrent ozone forecast images from National Weather System's National Air Quality Forecast System in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were saved over the ferry ozone sampling period in 2009. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. The model 1 and 8 h ozone mean biases were both 12 ppb higher than observed ozone, and maximum daily 1 h ozone mean bias was 10 ppb, indicating substantial ozone over-prediction over water. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day or month were also explored showing non-uniformity in model bias. Extreme ozone events were predicted by the model but not observed by ferry measurements.

  3. Novel methodology for pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    PubMed Central

    Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Rémuzat, Cécile; Urbinati, Duccio; Kornfeld, Åsa; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and objective The value appreciation of new drugs across countries today features a disruption that is making the historical data that are used for forecasting pharmaceutical expenditure poorly reliable. Forecasting methods rarely addressed uncertainty. The objective of this project was to propose a methodology to perform pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting that integrates expected policy changes and uncertainty (developed for the European Commission as the ‘EU Pharmaceutical expenditure forecast’; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). Methods 1) Identification of all pharmaceuticals going off-patent and new branded medicinal products over a 5-year forecasting period in seven European Union (EU) Member States. 2) Development of a model to estimate direct and indirect impacts (based on health policies and clinical experts) on savings of generics and biosimilars. Inputs were originator sales value, patent expiry date, time to launch after marketing authorization, price discount, penetration rate, time to peak sales, and impact on brand price. 3) Development of a model for new drugs, which estimated sales progression in a competitive environment. Clinical expected benefits as well as commercial potential were assessed for each product by clinical experts. Inputs were development phase, marketing authorization dates, orphan condition, market size, and competitors. 4) Separate analysis of the budget impact of products going off-patent and new drugs according to several perspectives, distribution chains, and outcomes. 5) Addressing uncertainty surrounding estimations via deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results This methodology has proven to be effective by 1) identifying the main parameters impacting the variations in pharmaceutical expenditure forecasting across countries: generics discounts and penetration, brand price after patent loss, reimbursement rate, the penetration of biosimilars and

  4. A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jilani, Tahseen Ahmed; Burney, Syed Muhammad Aqil

    2008-05-01

    Time series models have been used to make predictions of stock prices, academic enrollments, weather, road accident casualties, etc. In this paper we present a simple time-variant fuzzy time series forecasting method. The proposed method uses heuristic approach to define frequency-density-based partitions of the universe of discourse. We have proposed a fuzzy metric to use the frequency-density-based partitioning. The proposed fuzzy metric also uses a trend predictor to calculate the forecast. The new method is applied for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments’ forecasting of the University of Alabama. It is shown that the proposed method work with higher accuracy as compared to other fuzzy time series methods developed for forecasting TAIEX and enrollments of the University of Alabama.

  5. Reforming antiretroviral price negotiations and public procurement: the Mexican experience.

    PubMed

    Adesina, Adebiyi; Wirtz, Veronika J; Dratler, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    Since antiretroviral (ARV) medicines represent one of the most costly components of therapy for HIV in middle-income countries, ensuring their efficient procurement is highly relevant. In 2008, Mexico created a national commission for the negotiation of ARV prices to achieve price reductions for their public HIV treatment programmes. The objective of this study is to assess the immediate impact of the creation of the Mexican Commission for Price Negotiation on ARV prices and expenditures. A longitudinal retrospective analysis of procurement prices, volumes and type of the most commonly prescribed ARVs procured by the two largest providers of HIV/AIDS care in Mexico between 2004 and 2009 was carried out. These analyses were combined with 26 semi-structured key informant interviews to identify changes in the procurement process. Prices for ARVs dropped by an average of 38% after the first round of negotiations, indicating that the Commission was successful in price negotiations. However, when compared with other upper-middle-income countries, Mexico continues to pay an average of six times more for ARVs. The Commission's negotiations were successful in achieving lower ARV prices. However, price reduction in upper-middle-income countries suggests that the price decrease in Mexico cannot be entirely attributed to the Commission's first round of negotiations. In addition, key informants identified inefficiencies in the forecasting and procurement processes possibly affecting the efficiency of the negotiation process. A comprehensive approach to improving efficiency in the purchasing and delivery of ARVs is necessary, including a better clarification in the roles and responsibilities of the Commission, improving supply data collection and integration in forecasting and procurement, and the creation of a support system to monitor and provide feedback on patient ARV use.

  6. Essays on oil price volatility and irreversible investment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pastor, Daniel J.

    In chapter 1, we provide an extensive and systematic evaluation of the relative forecasting performance of several models for the volatility of daily spot crude oil prices. Empirical research over the past decades has uncovered significant gains in forecasting performance of Markov Switching GARCH models over GARCH models for the volatility of financial assets and crude oil futures. We find that, for spot oil price returns, non-switching models perform better in the short run, whereas switching models tend to do better at longer horizons. In chapter 2, I investigate the impact of volatility on firms' irreversible investment decisions using real options theory. Cost incurred in oil drilling is considered sunk cost, thus irreversible. I collect detailed data on onshore, development oil well drilling on the North Slope of Alaska from 2003 to 2014. Volatility is modeled by constructing GARCH, EGARCH, and GJR-GARCH forecasts based on monthly real oil prices, and realized volatility from 5-minute intraday returns of oil futures prices. Using a duration model, I show that oil price volatility generally has a negative relationship with the hazard rate of drilling an oil well both when aggregating all the fields, and in individual fields.

  7. Comparison of hourly surface downwelling solar radiation estimated from MSG-SEVIRI and forecast by the RAMS model with pyranometers over Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Federico, Stefano; Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Sanò, Paolo; Casella, Daniele; Campanelli, Monica; Fokke Meirink, Jan; Wang, Ping; Vergari, Stefania; Diémoz, Henri; Dietrich, Stefano

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, we evaluate the performance of two global horizontal solar irradiance (GHI) estimates, one derived from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) and another from the 1-day forecast of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale model. The horizontal resolution of the MSG-GHI is 3 × 5 km2 over Italy, which is the focus area of this study. For this paper, RAMS has the horizontal resolution of 4 km.The performances of the MSG-GHI estimate and RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast are evaluated for 1 year (1 June 2013-31 May 2014) against data of 12 ground-based pyranometers over Italy spanning a range of climatic conditions, i.e. from maritime Mediterranean to Alpine climate.Statistics for hourly GHI and daily integrated GHI are presented for the four seasons and the whole year for all the measurement sites. Different sky conditions are considered in the analysisResults for hourly data show an evident dependence on the sky conditions, with the root mean square error (RMSE) increasing from clear to cloudy conditions. The RMSE is substantially higher for Alpine stations in all the seasons, mainly because of the increase of the cloud coverage for these stations, which is not well represented at the satellite and model resolutions. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for the RAMS model, the RMSE ranges from 152 W m-2 (31 %) obtained for Cozzo Spadaro, a maritime station, to 287 W m-2 (82 %) for Aosta, an Alpine site. Considering the yearly statistics computed from hourly data for MSG-GHI, the minimum RMSE is for Cozzo Spadaro (71 W m-2, 14 %), while the maximum is for Aosta (181 W m-2, 51 %). The mean bias error (MBE) shows the tendency of RAMS to over-forecast the GHI, while no specific behaviour is found for MSG-GHI.Results for daily integrated GHI show a lower RMSE compared to hourly GHI evaluation for both RAMS-GHI 1-day forecast and MSG-GHI estimate. Considering the yearly evaluation, the RMSE of daily integrated GHI is at least 9

  8. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  9. Calculating proper transfer prices

    SciTech Connect

    Dorkey, F.C. ); Jarrell, G.A. )

    1991-01-01

    This article deals with developing a proper transfer pricing method. Decentralization is as American as baseball. While managers laud the widespread benefits of both decentralization and baseball, they often greet the term transfer price policy with a yawn. Since transfer prices are as critical to the success of decentralized firms as good pitchers are to baseball teams, this is quite a mistake on the part of our managers. A transfer price is the price charged to one division for a product or service that another division produced or provided. In many, perhaps most, decentralized organizations, the transfer pricing policies actually used are grossly inefficient and sacrifice the potential advantages of decentralization. Experience shows that far too many companies have transfer pricing policies that cost them significantly in foregone growth and profits.

  10. Annual energy outlook 1999, with projections to 2020

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-01

    The Annual Energy Outlook 1999 (AEO99) presents midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020 prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The projections are based on results from EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The report begins with an Overview summarizing the AEO99 reference case. The next section, Legislation and Regulations, describes the assumptions made with regard to laws that affect energy markets and discusses evolving legislative and regulatory issues. Issues in Focus discusses current energy issues--the economic decline in East Asia, growth in demand for natural gas, vehicle emissions standards, competitive electricity pricing, renewable portfolio standards, and carbon emissions. It is followed by the analysis of energy market trends. The analysis in AEO99 focuses primarily on a reference case and four other cases that assume higher and lower economic growth and higher and lower world oil prices than in the reference case. Forecast tables for these cases are provided in Appendixes A through C. Appendixes D and E present a summary of the reference case forecasts in units of oil equivalence and household energy expenditures. The AEO99 projections are based on Federal, State, and local laws and regulations in effect on July 1, 1998. Pending legislation and sections of existing legislation for which funds have not been appropriated are not reflected in the forecasts. Historical data used for the AEOI99 projections were the most current available as of July 31, 1998, when most 1997 data but only partial 1998 data were available.

  11. Forecasting Artificial Intelligence Demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, David R.; Shelley, Charles

    1986-03-01

    Forecasts are major components of the decision analysis process. When accurate, estimates of future economic activity associated with specific courses of action can correctly set corporate strategy in an uncertain environment. When inaccurate, they can lead to bankruptcy. The basic trouble with most forecasts is that they are not made by forecasters.

  12. Solar Flare Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bai, T.; Murdin, P.

    2000-11-01

    Like weather forecasting, solar flare forecasting (or forecasting solar activity in general) is motivated by pragmatic needs. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar winds and other solar activity intimately influence the near-Earth space environment. All kinds of spacecraft including weather and communication satellites are orbiting Earth, and their performance and lifetimes are greatly infl...

  13. Forecasts of land uses

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsBetween 30 million and 43 million acres of land in the South are forecasted to be developed for urban uses by 2060 from a base of 30 million acres in 1997. These forecasts are based on a continuation of historical development intensities.From 1997 to 2060, the South is forecasted to lose between 11 million acres (7...

  14. Global strategies to reduce the price of antiretroviral medicines: evidence from transactional databases.

    PubMed

    Waning, Brenda; Kaplan, Warren; King, Alexis C; Lawrence, Danielle A; Leufkens, Hubert G; Fox, Matthew P

    2009-07-01

    To estimate the impact of global strategies, such as pooled procurement arrangements, third-party price negotiation and differential pricing, on reducing the price of antiretrovirals (ARVs), which currently hinders universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment. We estimated the impact of global strategies to reduce ARV prices using data on 7253 procurement transactions (July 2002-October 2007) from databases hosted by WHO and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. For 19 of 24 ARV dosage forms, we detected no association between price and volume purchased. For the other five ARVs, high-volume purchases were 4-21% less expensive than medium- or low-volume purchases. Nine of 13 generic ARVs were priced 6-36% lower when purchased under the Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative (CHAI). Fifteen of 18 branded ARVs were priced 23-498% higher for differentially priced purchases compared with non-CHAI generic purchases. However, two branded, differentially priced ARVs were priced 63% and 73% lower, respectively, than generic non-CHAI equivalents. Large purchase volumes did not necessarily result in lower ARV prices. Although current plans for pooled procurement will further increase purchase volumes, savings are uncertain and should be balanced against programmatic costs. Third-party negotiation by CHAI resulted in lower generic ARV prices. Generics were less expensive than differentially priced branded ARVs, except where little generic competition exists. Alternative strategies for reducing ARV prices, such as streamlining financial management systems, improving demand forecasting and removing barriers to generics, should be explored.

  15. A stochastic delay model for pricing debt and equity: Numerical techniques and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tambue, Antoine; Kemajou Brown, Elisabeth; Mohammed, Salah

    2015-01-01

    Delayed nonlinear models for pricing corporate liabilities and European options were recently developed. Using self-financed strategy and duplication we were able to derive a Random Partial Differential Equation (RPDE) whose solutions describe the evolution of debt and equity values of a corporate in the last delay period interval in the accompanied paper (Kemajou et al., 2012) [14]. In this paper, we provide robust numerical techniques to solve the delayed nonlinear model for the corporate value, along with the corresponding RPDEs modeling the debt and equity values of the corporate. Using financial data from some firms, we forecast and compare numerical solutions from both the nonlinear delayed model and classical Merton model with the real corporate data. From this comparison, it comes up that in corporate finance the past dependence of the firm value process may be an important feature and therefore should not be ignored.

  16. How crucial is it to account for the antecedent moisture conditions in flood forecasting? Comparison of event-based and continuous approaches on 178 catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthet, L.; Andréassian, V.; Perrin, C.; Javelle, P.

    2009-06-01

    This paper compares event-based and continuous hydrological modelling approaches for real-time forecasting of river flows. Both approaches are compared using a lumped hydrologic model (whose structure includes a soil moisture accounting (SMA) store and a routing store) on a data set of 178 French catchments. The main focus of this study was to investigate the actual impact of soil moisture initial conditions on the performance of flood forecasting models and the possible compensations with updating techniques. The rainfall-runoff model assimilation technique we used does not impact the SMA component of the model but only its routing part. Tests were made by running the SMA store continuously or on event basis, everything else being equal. The results show that the continuous approach remains the reference to ensure good forecasting performances. We show, however, that the possibility to assimilate the last observed flow considerably reduces the differences in performance. Last, we present a robust alternative to initialize the SMA store where continuous approaches are impossible because of data availability problems.

  17. Forecasting surface wind speeds over offshore islands near Taiwan during tropical cyclones: Comparisons of data-driven algorithms and parametric wind representations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Chih-Chiang

    2015-03-01

    Tropical cyclones often affect the western North Pacific region. Between May and October annually, enormous flood damage is frequently caused by typhoons in Taiwan. This study adopted machine learning techniques to forecast the hourly wind speeds over offshore islands near Taiwan during tropical cyclones. To develop a highly reliable surface wind speed prediction technique, the four kernel-based support vector machines for regression (SVR) models, comprising radial basis function, linear, polynomial, and Pearson VII universal kernels were used. To ensure the accuracy of the SVR model, traditional regressions and the parametric wind representations, comprising the modified Rankine profile, Holland wind profile, and DeMaria wind profile were used to compare wind speed forecasts. The methodology was applied to two islands near Taiwan, Lanyu, and Pengjia Islets. The forecasting horizon ranged from 1 to 6 h. The results indicated that the Pearson VII SVR is the most precise of the kernel-based SVR models, regressions, and parametric wind representations. Additionally, Typhoons Nanmadol and Saola which made landfall over Taiwan during 2011 and 2012 were simulated and examined. The results showed that the Pearson VII SVR yielded more favorable results than did the regressions and Holland wind profile. In addition, we observed that Holland wind profile seems applicable to open ocean but unsuitable for areas affected by topographic effects, such as the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan.

  18. Energy: forecasting, data, and conservation

    SciTech Connect

    Bertram, K.M.; Mannering, F.L.; Harrington, I.E.; Boyce, D.E.; Janson, B.N.

    1981-01-01

    The 14 papers in this report deal with the following areas: projected potential piggyback energy savings through the year 2000; use of density function and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to evaluate policy impacts on travel demand; direct energy consumption for personal travel in the Chicago metropolitan area; short-term forecasting of gasoline demand; issues for developing state energy emergency conservation plans; analysis of long-term transportation energy use; state-level stock system model of gasoline demand; fuel consumption on congested freeways; measures of the impacts of changes in motor-fuel supply in Massachusetts; dual price system for management of gasoline lines; projections of changes in vehicle technology and characteristics to improve fuel economy; framework for analyzing the 1979 summer fuel crisis: the New York state experience; simulating the impact of transportation-related energy policies on travel behavior and transportation demand; and an assessment of games as methods of providing information on gasoline conservation.

  19. 18 CFR Appendix A 1 to Part 281 - Comparison of Selected Fuel Price Data, FPC Form No. 423 Versus Monthly Energy Review, 1976...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ...) Natural Gas 103.4 130.0 143.8 175.4 194.8 97.2 131.9 154.1 201.8 237.3 Actual price difference (fuel oil and coal versus natural gas) Fuel Oil: No. 2 131.7 134.3 128.1 226.7 369.6 129.2 125.4 114.1 201.3 299... (fuel oil and coal versus natural gas)—ratio Fuel Oil: No. 2 1.274 1.033 .891 1.292 1.897 1.329 .951...

  20. Stochastic demographic forecasting.

    PubMed

    Lee, R D

    1992-11-01

    "This paper describes a particular approach to stochastic population forecasting, which is implemented for the U.S.A. through 2065. Statistical time series methods are combined with demographic models to produce plausible long run forecasts of vital rates, with probability distributions. The resulting mortality forecasts imply gains in future life expectancy that are roughly twice as large as those forecast by the Office of the Social Security Actuary.... Resulting stochastic forecasts of the elderly population, elderly dependency ratios, and payroll tax rates for health, education and pensions are presented."

  1. Forecast-skill-based simulation of streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Tongtiegang; Zhao, Jianshi

    2014-09-01

    Streamflow forecasts are updated periodically in real time, thereby facilitating forecast evolution. This study proposes a forecast-skill-based model of forecast evolution that is able to simulate dynamically updated streamflow forecasts. The proposed model applies stochastic models that deal with streamflow variability to generate streamflow scenarios, which represent cases without forecast skill of future streamflow. The model then employs a coefficient of prediction to determine forecast skill and to quantify the streamflow variability ratio explained by the forecast. By updating the coefficients of prediction periodically, the model efficiently captures the evolution of streamflow forecast. Simulated forecast uncertainty increases with increasing lead time; and simulated uncertainty during a specific future period decreases over time. We combine the statistical model with an optimization model and design a hypothetical case study of reservoir operation. The results indicate the significance of forecast skill in forecast-based reservoir operation. Shortage index reduces as forecast skill increases and ensemble forecast outperforms deterministic forecast at a similar forecast skill level. Moreover, an effective forecast horizon exists beyond which more forecast information does not contribute to reservoir operation and higher forecast skill results in longer effective forecast horizon. The results illustrate that the statistical model is efficient in simulating forecast evolution and facilitates analysis of forecast-based decision making.

  2. Price differentiation and transparency in the global pharmaceutical marketplace.

    PubMed

    Ridley, David B

    2005-01-01

    Pharmaceutical manufacturers have increased the availability of their products and sometimes increased their own financial returns by charging lower prices outside of the US and by discounting to lower-income patients in the US. Examples include discounted HIV-AIDS drugs in developing countries and pharmaceutical manufacturers' discount cards in the US. Representatives of some international organisations argue that the price reductions are insufficient to make the medications widely available to lower-income patients. The WHO advocates both differential pricing and price transparency. While its efforts are well meaning, this paper identifies six concerns about its methods of comparing the price of a given molecule across manufacturers and across countries. More significantly, the WHO efforts to increase transparency are likely to lead to less price differentiation and less access to innovative pharmaceuticals. An important reason why manufacturers are reluctant to charge lower prices in lower-income countries is that they fear that such low prices will undermine the prices they charge to higher-income consumers. International organisations should not facilitate transparency but should dissuade governments from making price comparisons and basing their prices on those of lower-income countries. Furthermore, they should endeavour to keep low-priced and free drugs in the hands of the low-income consumers for which they were intended.

  3. A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

    2010-08-01

    We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

  4. STS pricing policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

    1982-01-01

    In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

  5. STS pricing policy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, C. M.; Stone, B.

    1982-01-01

    In 1977 NASA published Shuttle Reimbursement Policies for Civil U.S. Government, DOD and Commercial and Foreign Users. These policies were based on the principle of total cost recovery over a period of time with a fixed flat price for initial period to time to enhance transition. This fixed period was to be followed with annual adjustments thereafter, NASA is establishing a new price for 1986 and beyond. In order to recover costs, that price must be higher than the initial fixed price through FY 1985. NASA intends to remain competitive. Competitive posture includes not only price, but other factors such as assured launch, reliability, and unique services. NASA's pricing policy considers all these factors.

  6. The End of the International Reference Pricing System?

    PubMed

    Persson, Ulf; Jönsson, Bengt

    2016-02-01

    All 28 EU member states except Sweden and the UK apply international reference pricing (IRP), international price comparison, external reference pricing or cross-reference pricing. The attractiveness of using prices of other countries as a benchmark for decisions within a national price control is obvious. Alternative models for price and reimbursement decision making such as value-based pricing (VBP), i.e. cost-effectiveness analyses, are more complicated. However, IRP provides incentives for stakeholders to take action not in line with optimal (welfare-maximizing) pricing. IRP is costly for two reasons. First, manufacturers are incentivised to limit or delay access to new innovative treatments in countries with small markets and/or a low income, which can be costly in terms of loss of health. Second, all countries also experience a loss of welfare (health) because IRP reduces the opportunities for differential pricing (Ramsey pricing), i.e. using the fact that the ability and willingness to pay differs between countries. Thus, IRP results in less sales revenue to finance research and development of new innovative drugs. We can now observe that payers and manufacturers are engaged in different types of risk-sharing schemes, price-volume negotiations, payback arrangements, confidential discounts, coverage with evidence developments, etc., all with the purpose of returning to the old model of price discrimination and Ramsey pricing. Shortly, real prices for use in IRP systems will cease to exist and, thus, we expect to soon see the end of IRP, a new system for price discrimination and an increasing demand for VBP.

  7. How to compare what seems incomparable in seasonal hydrological forecasting?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    A number of climate forecasting systems have been developed at the global scale allowing the production of seasonal hydrological services at the regional, national and continental scales. With these services becoming increasingly available to dissemination institutes and occasionally directly to the public, forecasters have been requesting information on the reliability of the forecasts, particularly when they need to select one system for a specific application. The quality of the forecasts depends on the hydrological model used and, consequently, on its setup, structure, objective, and performance. These characteristics can be very different among models, adding a degree of complexity to any model output inter-comparison analysis. Here, we propose a framework to compare outputs from different modelling systems. We compare the seasonal streamflow forecasts produced by a continentally-calibrated complex model (E-HYPE) and a regionally-calibrated parsimonious model (GR6J) to forecast streamflow in a set of French catchments. Streamflow forecasts are obtained by using bias adjusted ECMWF System 4 seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts as input to the E-HYPE and GR6J hydrological models. We first identify within the forecasting chain the origin of the differences between the two hydrological systems. We use the evaluation of forecast skill to highlight and isolate the differences in meteorological forcing, initial hydrological conditions and historical model performance, respectively. Forecast skill is thus evaluated by considering different benchmarks based on: i) historical observed streamflow, ii) historical simulated streamflow, and iii) the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) system which uses meteorological climatology as input to the hydrological models. We also present the dependence of forecast quality (i.e., sharpness and reliability) on the hydrological models used. Lastly, we assess the impact of the two different model structures on forecast

  8. Maximum entropy distribution of stock price fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartiromo, Rosario

    2013-04-01

    In this paper we propose to use the principle of absence of arbitrage opportunities in its entropic interpretation to obtain the distribution of stock price fluctuations by maximizing its information entropy. We show that this approach leads to a physical description of the underlying dynamics as a random walk characterized by a stochastic diffusion coefficient and constrained to a given value of the expected volatility, in this way taking into account the information provided by the existence of an option market. The model is validated by a comprehensive comparison with observed distributions of both price return and diffusion coefficient. Expected volatility is the only parameter in the model and can be obtained by analysing option prices. We give an analytic formulation of the probability density function for price returns which can be used to extract expected volatility from stock option data.

  9. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1992

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1994-01-01

    The average price in the Midsouth for a cord of roundwood pulpwood increased 5.1 percent from $56.39 in 1991 to $59.29 in 1992. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues was $27.30, an increase of 6.1 percent. In 1992, expenditures for Midsouth pulpwood increased 14.0 percent to $2.2 million. Real prices continued to rise for both softwood and...

  10. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1990

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1992-01-01

    In 1990, the average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $52.95, an increase of 5.7 percent since 1989. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues increased about 3.7 percent to $22.51. The total pulpwood expenditure for Midsouth pulpmills increased 13 percent to $1,883 million in 1990. In terms of 1981 dollars, real prices fell...

  11. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1988

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1990-01-01

    In 1988, the average price per cord of Midsouth roundwood pulpwood was $49.21, an increase of approximately 4 percent since 1987. The average price per green ton of chipped residues fell 3 percent to $20.99. The total expenditure by Midsouth pulpmills for pulpwood increased about one-half percent to $1,569 million in 1988. However, the real prices, in terms of...

  12. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  13. Food price volatility

    PubMed Central

    Gilbert, C. L.; Morgan, C. W.

    2010-01-01

    The high food prices experienced over recent years have led to the widespread view that food price volatility has increased. However, volatility has generally been lower over the two most recent decades than previously. Variability over the most recent period has been high but, with the important exception of rice, not out of line with historical experience. There is weak evidence that grains price volatility more generally may be increasing but it is too early to say. PMID:20713400

  14. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  15. Price dynamics in political prediction markets.

    PubMed

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A; Amaral, Luís A Nunes

    2009-01-20

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series.

  16. Price dynamics in political prediction markets

    PubMed Central

    Majumder, Saikat Ray; Diermeier, Daniel; Rietz, Thomas A.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

    2009-01-01

    Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election “winner-takes-all” markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility correlations, and, usually, power-law decaying distributions of returns. However, unlike other financial markets, we find conditional diverging volatilities as the contract settlement date approaches. We propose a dynamic binary option model that captures all features of the empirical data and can potentially provide a tool with which one may extract true information events from a price time series. PMID:19155442

  17. Soaring prices, soaring sales.

    PubMed

    Grinberg, L

    1998-12-01

    DuPont Pharmaceuticals and Glaxo Wellcome began marketing two new drugs, and the pricing of the drugs started a controversy. DuPont's efavirenz (Sustiva) was priced 60 percent higher than any other nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), with an annual retail price close to $5,000. In response, an ad hoc coalition called the Fair Price Working Group circulated a consensus statement demanding that the drug be priced like other drugs in that category. DuPont refused to reconsider, citing potency, once-daily dosing, and development costs. Several of the largest AIDS Drug Assistance Programs (ADAPs) also refused to add efavirenz to their formularies even though Dupont offered ADAPs a 5 percent rebate on the drug. Glaxo Wellcome learned from this dispute and priced its nucleoside analog abacavir at a level that ADAPs could afford, even though it is at the high end for its class of drugs. The coalition commended Glaxo for fairness in its pricing decision. Agouron and Bristol-Myers Squibb have also been criticized for repeatedly raising prices on their drugs. A continuing dialog, prior to price setting, will lead to greater understanding of a company's costs and may improve a company's reputation.

  18. US Natural Gas Price and Its Influencing Factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kao, Hsing-Chien

    Research has shown that the Henry Hub natural gas price and the WTI crude oil price are cointegrated in the long run; however, the short term relationship between these two energy prices draws continued discussions and remains inconclusive so far. This paper uses advanced nonlinear time series method MARS VAR to study the dynamic relationship between natural gas price movements and crude oil prices over the past 14 years of daily data. The main finding is that WTI crude oil prices were causally prior to Henry Hub natural gas prices prior to 2004. After this period a decoupling occurred that was captured by the MARS VAR model but not seen in other research using vector error correction model (VECM) that does not support thresholds. Moreover, the out-of-sample forecasting power of MARS VAR is superior to VECM, which based on the cointegration assumption. The research findings may have significant implications of commodity pricing, hedging, and risk management to natural gas local distribution company (LDC), and the Energy Administration.

  19. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes: 1981 Update.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Research Associates of Washington, DC.

    Higher Education prices and price indexes for fiscal years 1979-1981 are presented, with narrative explanation. A price index series measures the effects of price change on a fixed group of items. The change in price index values from year to year may be interpreted as the change in dollars required to offset the effects of inflation in buying the…

  20. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  1. Constructing "behavioral" comparison groups: A difference-in-difference analysis of the effect of copayment based on the patient's price elasticity.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chaohsin; Hsu, Shuofen

    2014-12-01

    It is well known that the differences-in-differences (DD) estimator is based on the assumption that in the absence of treatment, the average outcomes for the treated group and the control group will follow a common trend over time. That can be problematic, especially when the selection for the treatment is influenced by the individual's unobserved behavior correlating with the medical utilization. The aim of this study was to develop an index for controlling a patient's unobserved heterogeneous response to reform, in order to improve the comparability of treatment assignment. This study showed that a DD estimator of the reform effects can be decomposed into effects induced by moral hazard and by changes in health risk within the same treated/untreated group. This article also presented evidence that the constructed index of the price elasticity of the adjusted clinical group has good statistical properties for identifying the impact of reform.

  2. A comparison of organic and conventionally-produced lamb purchased from three major UK supermarkets: Price, eating quality and fatty acid composition.

    PubMed

    Angood, K M; Wood, J D; Nute, G R; Whittington, F M; Hughes, S I; Sheard, P R

    2008-03-01

    Organic and conventional lamb loin chops, labelled as British lamb, were bought from three major UK supermarket chains (designated A, B and C) in the Bristol area on 10 occasions over a six week period. Samples (n=360) were from unknown production systems but representative of what is available to UK consumers. The nutritional quality of muscle was assessed in terms of its fatty acid composition and eating quality was assessed by a trained sensory panel. Lamb prices varied between £9 and £12.50 per kg, with a relatively modest price differential between organic and conventional lamb chops of £1.10, £1.88 and £1.16 £/kg for supermarkets A, B and C, respectively. On average, organic chops were 20g heavier than conventional chops. Chops were relatively lean, having just 14% of subcutaneous fat, approximately half that of a similar survey 10 years ago. Organic lamb had a better eating quality than conventional lamb in terms of juiciness (p<0.05), flavour (p<0.05) and overall liking (p<0.05) thus providing some evidence for the perception among consumers that organic products 'taste better'. Differences in juiciness were attributed to the higher intramuscular fat content of organic meat whilst differences in flavour were attributed to differences in fatty acid composition, in particular, the higher level of linolenic acid (18:3) and total n-3 PUFA in organic chops. Conventional chops had a higher percentage of linoleic acid (18:2). Chops from both productions systems had a favourable n-6:n-3 ratio. The most important difference between the three supermarkets was that lamb flavour was significantly lower in chops from supermarket A, probably due to differences in their 'display until' dates. Chops from supermarket A were also the cheapest.

  3. Price Discrimination in Academic Journals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joyce, Patrick; Merz, Thomas E.

    1985-01-01

    Analysis of price discrimination (charging different prices to different customers for same product) for 89 academic journals in 6 disciplines reveals: incidence of price discrimination rose between 1974 and 1984, increase in mean institutional (library) subscription price exceeded increase in mean individual subscription price. Journal list…

  4. Artificial neural networks environmental forecasting in comparison with multiple linear regression technique: From heavy metals to organic micropollutants screening in agricultural soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonelli, Maria Grazia; Ferrini, Mauro; Manni, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of metals and organic micropollutants contamination in agricultural soils is a difficult challenge due to the extensive area used to collect and analyze a very large number of samples. With Dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs measurement methods and subsequent the treatment of data, the European Community advises the develop low-cost and fast methods allowing routing analysis of a great number of samples, providing rapid measurement of these compounds in the environment, feeds and food. The aim of the present work has been to find a method suitable to describe the relations occurring between organic and inorganic contaminants and use the value of the latter in order to forecast the former. In practice, the use of a metal portable soil analyzer coupled with an efficient statistical procedure enables the required objective to be achieved. Compared to Multiple Linear Regression, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has shown to be an excellent forecasting method, though there is no linear correlation between the variables to be analyzed.

  5. Weather forecasting expert system study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Weather forecasting is critical to both the Space Transportation System (STS) ground operations and the launch/landing activities at NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The current launch frequency places significant demands on the USAF weather forecasters at the Cape Canaveral Forecasting Facility (CCFF), who currently provide the weather forecasting for all STS operations. As launch frequency increases, KSC's weather forecasting problems will be great magnified. The single most important problem is the shortage of highly skilled forecasting personnel. The development of forecasting expertise is difficult and requires several years of experience. Frequent personnel changes within the forecasting staff jeopardize the accumulation and retention of experience-based weather forecasting expertise. The primary purpose of this project was to assess the feasibility of using Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques to ameliorate this shortage of experts by capturing aria incorporating the forecasting knowledge of current expert forecasters into a Weather Forecasting Expert System (WFES) which would then be made available to less experienced duty forecasters.

  6. Hardwood price reporting.

    Treesearch

    Brent L. Sohngen; Richard W. Haynes

    1994-01-01

    Prices for red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.) hardwood logs are published and analyzed for reliability, consistency, and robustness. Timberland managers can use these prices to make decisions about land management. They show that values for red alder logs have been increasing steadily for the last 11 years.

  7. Perspectives on Pricing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Litten, Larry H.

    1986-01-01

    The most provocative perspectives on pricing for colleges and universities have come from the introduction of marketing into higher education. A brief review of these developments is offered to serve as an orientation for the consideration of pricing issues per se. (Author/MLW)

  8. Essays in financial transmission rights pricing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posner, Barry

    This work examines issues in the pricing of financial transmission rights in the PJM market region. The US federal government is advocating the creation of large-scale, not-for-profit regional transmission organizations to increase the efficiency of the transmission of electricity. As a non-profit entity, PJM needs to allocate excess revenues collected as congestion rents, and the participants in the transmission markets need to be able to hedge their exposure to congestion rents. For these purposes, PJM has developed an instrument known as the financial transmission right (FTR). This research, utilizing a new data set assembled by the author, looks at two aspects of the FTR market. The first chapter examines the problem of forecasting congestion in a transmission grid. In the PJM FTR system firms bid in a competitive auction for FTRs that cover a period of one month. The auctions take place in the middle of the previous month; therefore firms have to forecast congestion rents for the period two to six weeks after the auction. The common methods of forecasting congestion are either time-series models or full-information engineering studies. In this research, the author develops a forecasting system that is more economically grounded than a simple time-series model, but requires less information than an engineering model. This method is based upon the arbitrage-cost methodology, whereby congesting is calculated as the difference of two non-observable variables: the transmission price difference that would exist in the total absence of transmission capacity between two nodes, and the ability of the existing transmission to reduced that price difference. If the ability to reduce the price difference is greater than the price difference, then the cost of electricity at each node will be the same, and congestion rent will be zero. If transmission capacity limits are binding on the flow of power, then a price difference persists and congestion rents exist. Three

  9. Future freeze forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bartholic, J. F.; Sutherland, R. A.

    1979-01-01

    Real time GOES thermal data acquisition, an energy balance minimum temperature prediction model and a statistical model are incorporated into a minicomputer system. These components make up the operational "Satellite Freeze Forecast System" being used to aid NOAA, NWS forecasters in developing their freeze forecasts. The general concept of the system is presented in this paper. Specific detailed aspects of the system can be found in the reference cited.

  10. Comparing Postprocessing Approaches to Calibrating Operational River Discharge Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.; Wood, A. W.

    2010-12-01

    With rare exceptions, current operational ensemble weather and hydrologic forecast systems require a final post-processing step to steer the forecast products towards satisfying the twin constraints of greater reliability while retaining (or enhancing) forecast sharpness. Such post-processing of model output can be viewed as an extension of the modeling effort itself, such as in the case of under-dispersive ensemble forecasts, where post-processing of the ensemble dispersion can implicitly account for missing scales of variability or mis-representation of physical processes. Over the last decade a number of different approaches have emerged that show consistent utility in calibrating ensembles derived from a variety of forecasting systems. In this work we compare and contrast four such approaches under differing operational constraints (e.g. data size limitations): logistic regression, an analogue approach, Bayesian model averaging, and quantile regression. The setting for this study is the Climate Forecasting Applications for Bangladesh (CFAB) forecast system, which over the last decade has been providing operational probabilistic forecasts of severe flooding of the Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers as part of a humanitarian effort to mitigate the impacts of these events on the country of Bangladesh. The flood forecasting system developed utilizes weather forecast uncertainty information provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble weather forecasts, rain gauge and satellite-derived precipitation estimates from NASA and NOAA, along with near-real-time river stage observations provided by the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre of Bangladesh. This paper will discuss both the results of the post-processing comparison study more generally, and also within the unique context of this ongoing flood forecasting effort for Bangladesh.

  11. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  12. Weather assessment and forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    Data management program activities centered around the analyses of selected far-term Office of Applications (OA) objectives, with the intent of determining if significant data-related problems would be encountered and if so what alternative solutions would be possible. Three far-term (1985 and beyond) OA objectives selected for analyses as having potential significant data problems were large-scale weather forecasting, local weather and severe storms forecasting, and global marine weather forecasting. An overview of general weather forecasting activities and their implications upon the ground based data system is provided. Selected topics were specifically oriented to the use of satellites.

  13. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2014-01-01 2013-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  14. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  15. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  16. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  17. 7 CFR 1032.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 9 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. 1032.50 Section 1032.50 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued... CENTRAL MARKETING AREA Order Regulating Handling Class Prices § 1032.50 Class prices, component...

  18. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  19. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  20. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  1. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING AGREEMENTS AND ORDERS; MILK), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  2. 7 CFR 1000.50 - Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ...) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (Marketing Agreements and Orders; Milk), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL PROVISIONS OF FEDERAL MILK MARKETING ORDERS Class Prices § 1000.50 Class prices, component prices, and advanced pricing factors. Class prices per hundredweight of milk containing 3.5 percent...

  3. An Ensemble Approach for Forecasting Net Interchange Schedule

    SciTech Connect

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Gosink, Luke J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Ferryman, Thomas A.; Zhou, Ning; Tong, Jianzhong

    2013-09-01

    The net interchange schedule (NIS) is the sum of the transactions (MW) between an ISO/RTO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the submitted NIS can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper applies a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to forecast submitted NIS. As an ensemble approach, the BMA method aggregates different forecasting models in order to improve forecasting accuracy and consistency. In this study, the BMA method is compared to two alternative approaches: a stepwise regression method and an artificial neural network (ANN) trained for NIS forecasting. In our comparative analysis, we use field measurement data from the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) to train and test each method. Our preliminary results indicate that ensemble-based methods can provide more accurate and consistent NIS forecasts in comparison to non-ensemble alternate methods.

  4. Configurational entropy theory for streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Huijuan; Singh, Vijay P.

    2015-02-01

    This study develops configurational entropy theory (CET) for monthly streamflow forecasting. The theory is comprised of three main parts: (1) determination of spectral density (2) determination of parameters by cepstrum analysis, and (3) extension of autocorrelation function. Comparison with the Burg entropy theory (BET) shows that CET yields higher resolution spectral density with more accurate location of spectral peaks. Cepstrum analysis yields more accurate parameters than the Levinson algorithm in the autoregressive (AR) method and the Levinson-Burg algorithm in BET. CET is tested using monthly streamflow data from 19 river basins covering a broad range of physiographic characteristics. Testing shows that CET captures streamflow seasonality and satisfactorily forecasts both high and low flows. High flows are satisfactorily forecasted with the coefficient of determination (r2) higher than 0.92 for one year ahead of time, with r2 higher than 0.85 for two years ahead of time, and up to 60 months ahead with r2 higher than 0.80. However, low flows are forecasted with r2 higher than 0.50 for one year ahead time. When relative drainage area is considered for analyzing streamflow characteristics and spectral patterns, it is found that upstream streamflow is forecasted more accurately (r2 = 0.84) than downstream streamflow (r2 = 0.75). Residuals of forecasted values relative to observed values are found to follow normal distribution.

  5. IROme, a new high-throughput molecular tool for the diagnosis of inherited retinal dystrophies-a price comparison with Sanger sequencing.

    PubMed

    Schorderet, Daniel F; Bernasconi, Maude; Tiab, Leila; Favez, Tatiana; Escher, Pascal

    2014-01-01

    The molecular diagnosis of retinal dystrophies (RD) is difficult because of genetic and clinical heterogeneity. Previously, the molecular screening of genes was done one by one, sometimes in a scheme based on the frequency of sequence variants and the number of exons/length of the candidate genes. Payment for these procedures was complicated and the sequential billing of several genes created endless paperwork. We therefore evaluated the costs of generating and sequencing a hybridization-based DNA library enriched for the 64 most frequently mutated genes in RD, called IROme, and compared them to the costs of amplifying and sequencing these genes by the Sanger method. The production cost generated by the high-throughput (HT) sequencing of IROme was established at CHF 2,875.75 per case. Sanger sequencing of the same exons cost CHF 69,399.02. Turnaround time of the analysis was 3 days for IROme. For Sanger sequencing, it could only be estimated, as we never sequenced all 64 genes in one single patient. Sale cost for IROme calculated on the basis of the sale cost of one exon by Sanger sequencing is CHF 8,445.88, which corresponds to the sale price of 40 exons. In conclusion, IROme is cheaper and faster than Sanger sequencing and therefore represents a sound approach for the diagnosis of RD, both scientifically and economically. As a drop in the costs of HT sequencing is anticipated, target resequencing might become the new gold standard in the molecular diagnosis of RD.

  6. Forecasting ozone daily maximum levels at Santiago, Chile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jorquera, Héctor; Pérez, Ricardo; Cipriano, Aldo; Espejo, Andrés; Victoria Letelier, M.; Acuña, Gonzalo

    In major urban areas, air pollution impact on health is serious enough to include it in the group of meteorological variables that are forecast daily. This work focusses on the comparison of different forecasting systems for daily maximum ozone levels at Santiago, Chile. The modelling tools used for these systems were linear time series, artificial neural networks and fuzzy models. The structure of the forecasting model was derived from basic principles and it includes a combination of persistence and daily maximum air temperature as input variables. Assessment of the models is based on two indices: their ability to forecast well an episode, and their tendency to forecast an episode that did not occur at the end (a false positive). All the models tried in this work showed good forecasting performance, with 70-95% of successful forecasts at two monitor sites: Downtown (moderate impacts) and Eastern (downwind, highest impacts). The number of false positives was not negligible, but this may be improved by expressing the forecast in broad classes: low, average, high, very high impacts; the fuzzy model was the most reliable forecast, with the lowest number of false positives among the different models evaluated. The quality of the results and the dynamics of ozone formation suggest the use of a forecast to warn people about excessive exposure during episodic days at Santiago.

  7. Domestic petroleum product pricing policy: Old issues in new perspective

    SciTech Connect

    Bhattacharyya, S.C.

    1995-09-01

    It appears that the economic basis of domestic petroleum product pacing has, hitherto, received inadequate attention from economists. International comparisons of petroleum product pricing show that domestic markets are highly distorted This article argues that despite significant developments in theoretical and applied economics, economic theories do not provide any ready made solutions for energy pricing issues to the policy makers who have to deal with a large set of practical issues. As a result, it is not unusual to encounter gross misapplication of economic rules in petroleum pricing policies. This work also focuses on the possible effects of changing domestic market structure vis-a-vis pricing policies.

  8. Selected papers on fuel forecasting and analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, R.L.; Prast, W.G.

    1983-05-01

    Of the 19 presentations at this seminar, covering coal, uranium, oil, and gas issues as well as related EPRI research projects, eleven papers are published in this volume. Nine of the papers primarily address coal-market analysis, coal transportation, and uranium supply. Two additional papers provide an evaluation and perspective on the art and use of coal-supply forecasting models and on the relationship between coal and oil prices. The authors are energy analysts and EPRI research contractors from academia, the consulting profession, and the coal industry. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 11 papers.

  9. Forecasting Future Trends in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Collazo, Andres; And Others

    1977-01-01

    Describes a forecasting model sensitive to the major factors influencing educational outcomes, presents several forecasts based on alternative sets of assumptions, and discusses the implications of these forecasts, including ways to subvert them. (Author/JG)

  10. Pricing of new vaccines

    PubMed Central

    McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-01-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following eleven components: (1) Conduct a target population analysis; (2) Map potential competitors and alternatives; (3) Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; (4) Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; (5) Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; (6) Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; (7) Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); (8) Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer and competitor factors; (9) Consider the overall product portfolio; (10) Set pricing objectives; (11) Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area. PMID:20861678

  11. Pricing of new vaccines.

    PubMed

    Lee, Bruce Y; McGlone, Sarah M

    2010-08-01

    New vaccine pricing is a complicated process that could have substantial long-standing scientific, medical, and public health ramifications. Pricing can have a considerable impact on new vaccine adoption and, thereby, either culminate or thwart years of research and development and public health efforts. Typically, pricing strategy consists of the following ten components: 1. Conduct a target population analysis; 2. Map potential competitors and alternatives; 3. Construct a vaccine target product profile (TPP) and compare it to projected or actual TPPs of competing vaccines; 4. Quantify the incremental value of the new vaccine's characteristics; 5. Determine vaccine positioning in the marketplace; 6. Estimate the vaccine price-demand curve; 7. Calculate vaccine costs (including those of manufacturing, distribution, and research and development); 8. Account for various legal, regulatory, third party payer, and competitor factors; 9. Consider the overall product portfolio; 10. Set pricing objectives; 11. Select pricing and pricing structure. While the biomedical literature contains some studies that have addressed these components, there is still considerable room for more extensive evaluation of this important area.

  12. Generalized networking engineering: optimal pricing and routing in multiservice networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Debasis; Wang, Qiong

    2002-07-01

    One of the functions of network engineering is to allocate resources optimally to forecasted demand. We generalize the mechanism by incorporating price-demand relationships into the problem formulation, and optimizing pricing and routing jointly to maximize total revenue. We consider a network, with fixed topology and link bandwidths, that offers multiple services, such as voice and data, each having characteristic price elasticity of demand, and quality of service and policy requirements on routing. Prices, which depend on service type and origin-destination, determine demands, that are routed, subject to their constraints, so as to maximize revenue. We study the basic properties of the optimal solution and prove that link shadow costs provide the basis for both optimal prices and optimal routing policies. We investigate the impact of input parameters, such as link capacities and price elasticities, on prices, demand growth, and routing policies. Asymptotic analyses, in which network bandwidth is scaled to grow, give results that are noteworthy for their qualitative insights. Several numerical examples illustrate the analyses.

  13. Six Sigma pricing.

    PubMed

    Sodhi, ManMohan S; Sodhi, Navdeep S

    2005-05-01

    Many companies are now good at managing costs and wringing out manufacturing efficiencies. The TQM movement and the disciplines of Six Sigma have seen to that. But the discipline so often brought to the cost side of the business equation is found far less commonly on the revenue side. The authors describe how a global manufacturer of industrial equipment, which they call Acme Incorporated, recently applied Six Sigma to one major revenue related activity--the price-setting process. It seemed to Acme's executives that pricing closely resembled many manufacturing processes. So, with the help of a Six Sigma black belt from manufacturing, a manager from Acme's pricing division recruited a team to carry out the five Six Sigma steps: Define what constitutes a defect. At Acme, a defect was an item sold at an unauthorized price. Gather data and prepare it for analysis. That involved mapping out the existing pricing-agreement process. Analyze the data. The team identified the ways in which people failed to carry out or assert effective control at each stage. Recommend modifications to the existing process. The team sought to decrease the number of unapproved prices without creating an onerous approval apparatus. Create controls. This step enabled Acme to sustain and extend the improvements in its pricing procedures. As a result of the changes, Acme earned dollar 6 million in additional revenue on one product line alone in the six months following implementation--money that went straight to the bottom line. At the same time, the company removed much of the organizational friction that had long bedeviled its pricing process. Other companies can benefit from Acme's experience as they look for ways to exercise price control without alienating customers.

  14. Approximate option pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Chalasani, P.; Saias, I.; Jha, S.

    1996-04-08

    As increasingly large volumes of sophisticated options (called derivative securities) are traded in world financial markets, determining a fair price for these options has become an important and difficult computational problem. Many valuation codes use the binomial pricing model, in which the stock price is driven by a random walk. In this model, the value of an n-period option on a stock is the expected time-discounted value of the future cash flow on an n-period stock price path. Path-dependent options are particularly difficult to value since the future cash flow depends on the entire stock price path rather than on just the final stock price. Currently such options are approximately priced by Monte carlo methods with error bounds that hold only with high probability and which are reduced by increasing the number of simulation runs. In this paper the authors show that pricing an arbitrary path-dependent option is {number_sign}-P hard. They show that certain types f path-dependent options can be valued exactly in polynomial time. Asian options are path-dependent options that are particularly hard to price, and for these they design deterministic polynomial-time approximate algorithms. They show that the value of a perpetual American put option (which can be computed in constant time) is in many cases a good approximation to the value of an otherwise identical n-period American put option. In contrast to Monte Carlo methods, the algorithms have guaranteed error bounds that are polynormally small (and in some cases exponentially small) in the maturity n. For the error analysis they derive large-deviation results for random walks that may be of independent interest.

  15. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  16. The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte Carlo technique for blending climatic distributions with probabilistic forecasts

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Husak, G.J.; Michaelsen, J.; Kyriakidis, P.; Verdin, J.P.; Funk, C.; Galu, G.

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are produced from a variety of outlets to help predict rainfall, and other meteorological events, for periods of 1 month or more. Such forecasts are expressed as probabilities of a rainfall event, e.g. being in the upper, middle, or lower third of the relevant distribution of rainfall in the region. The impact of these forecasts on the expectation for the event is not always clear or easily conveyed. This article proposes a technique based on Monte Carlo simulation for adjusting existing climatologic statistical parameters to match forecast information, resulting in new parameters defining the probability of events for the forecast interval. The resulting parameters are shown to approximate the forecasts with reasonable accuracy. To show the value of the technique as an application for seasonal rainfall, it is used with consensus forecast developed for the Greater Horn of Africa for the 2009 March-April-May season. An alternative, analytical approach is also proposed, and discussed in comparison to the first simulation-based technique.

  17. Forecasts of forest conditions

    Treesearch

    Robert Huggett; David N. Wear; Ruhong Li; John Coulston; Shan Liu

    2013-01-01

    Key FindingsAmong the five forest management types, only planted pine is expected to increase in area. In 2010 planted pine comprised 19 percent of southern forests. By 2060, planted pine is forecasted to comprise somewhere between 24 and 36 percent of forest area.Although predicted rates of change vary, all forecasts reveal...

  18. Tornado forecasting: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doswell, Charles A., III; Weiss, Steven J.; Johns, Robert H.

    Present-day operational tornado forecasting can be thought of in two parts: anticipation of tornadic potential in the storm environment and recognition of tornadic storms once they develop. The former is a forecasting issue, while the latter is associated with warnings (or so-called nowcasting). This paper focuses on the forecasting aspect of tornadoes by dealing primarily with the relationship between the tornadic storm and its environment (Recognition and detection issues are treated by Burgess et al. [this volume]). We begin with a short history of tornado forecasting and related research in section 2; in section 3 we provide an overview of current tornado forecasting procedures within the Severe Local Storms (SELS) Unit at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC). In section 4 we give a short summary of 35 years of SELS tornado and severe thunderstorm forecast verification. In section 5 we describe our current understanding of the connection between tornadoes and their environment. We conclude in section 6 with our thoughts about the future of tornado forecasting.

  19. Aviation Forecasting in ICAO

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcmahon, J.

    1972-01-01

    Opinions or plans of qualified experts in the field are used for forecasting future requirements for air navigational facilities and services of international civil aviation. ICAO periodically collects information from Stators and operates on anticipated future operations, consolidates this information, and forecasts the future level of activity at different airports.

  20. Not as bad as you think: a comparison of the nutrient content of best price and brand name food products in Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Khalatbari-Soltani, Saman; Marques-Vidal, Pedro

    2016-06-01

    Several studies have shown that low-cost foods have an equivalent nutrient composition compared to high-cost foods, but such information is lacking in Switzerland. Thus, we compared the caloric and nutrient content of "best price" (BPF) and brand name foods (BNF) in Switzerland using the version 5.0 (April 2015) of the Swiss Food and Nutrient composition database. Over 4000 processed food items were included and 26 food categories were compared regarding total energy, protein, fat and carbohydrates, saturated fatty acids, sugar, fiber and sodium. BPF, namely core food categories like Bread, Red meat, White meat and Fish products, were 42%, 39%, 42% and 46% less expensive than their BNF equivalents, respectively. No differences were found between BPF and BNF regarding total energy and protein, fat and carbohydrates for most food categories. In the Cheese category, BPF had a lower caloric content than BNF [Median (interquartile range, IQR): 307 (249-355) vs. 365 (308-395) kcal/100 g, respectively, p < 0.001]; BPF also had lower fat and saturated fatty acid content but higher carbohydrate content than BNF (both p < 0.01). In the Creams and puddings group, BPF had lower fat 1.3 (0.9-1.7) vs. 6.0 (3.5-11.0) g/100 g and saturated fatty acid 0.6 (0.6-0.8) vs. 2.9 (2.3-6.0) g/100 g content than BNF (both p < 0.005). In the Tinned fruits and vegetables group, BPF had lower sodium content than BNF: 175 (0-330) vs. 370 (150-600) mg/100 g, p = 0.006. BPF might be a reasonable and eventually healthier alternative of BNF for economically deprived people in Switzerland.

  1. Comparing Prices for Food and Diet Research: The Metric Matters.

    PubMed

    Jones, N R V; Monsivais, P

    2016-07-02

    An important issue in research into access to healthy food is how best to compare the price of foods. The appropriate metric for comparison has been debated at length, with proponents variously stating that food prices should be compared in terms of their energy content, their edible mass, or their typical portion size. In this article we assessed the impact of using different food price metrics on the observed difference in price between food groups and categories of healthiness, using United Kingdom consumer price index data for 148 foods and beverages in 2012. We found that the choice of metric had a marked effect on the findings and conclude that this must be decided in advance to suit the reason for comparing food prices.

  2. Comparing Prices for Food and Diet Research: The Metric Matters

    PubMed Central

    Jones, N. R. V.; Monsivais, P.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT An important issue in research into access to healthy food is how best to compare the price of foods. The appropriate metric for comparison has been debated at length, with proponents variously stating that food prices should be compared in terms of their energy content, their edible mass, or their typical portion size. In this article we assessed the impact of using different food price metrics on the observed difference in price between food groups and categories of healthiness, using United Kingdom consumer price index data for 148 foods and beverages in 2012. We found that the choice of metric had a marked effect on the findings and conclude that this must be decided in advance to suit the reason for comparing food prices. PMID:27630754

  3. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL . Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. )

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  4. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M. ||; Hwang, R.

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  5. Assistive technology pricing in Australia: is it efficient and equitable?

    PubMed

    Summers, Michael P; Verikios, George

    2017-02-06

    Objective To examine available systematically collected evidence regarding prices for assistive technology (AT; e.g. disability aids and equipment) in Australia with other comparable countries. Issues of appropriate AT pricing are coming to the fore as a consequence of efforts to move to consumer-centric purchasing decisions with the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) and also in the recent aged care reforms.Methods We identified and present three sets of AT price comparisons. Two comparisons were based solely on the lowest prices advertised on the internet, and one comparison examined recommended retail prices. Variables essential to ensuring accurate comparisons, as well as significant supply-chain issues were also examined and considered in the analyses.Results The first internet-only price comparison found that overall AT prices were 38% higher in Australia compared to other countries, but did not factor in shipping and other related costs that are essential to include given that most AT is imported. The second internet-only price comparison found that overall Australian prices were 24% lower when shipping and related costs were included. The recommended retail price comparisons found that Australian prices were between 14% and 27% lower. Prices for internet-only retailers (those with no bricks-and-mortar presence) are consistently lower for all products than those sold by retailers with actual shop-fronts. Further, there is no evidence of suppliers earning supranormal profits in Australia.Conclusions The results indicate that AT prices in Australia are efficient and equitable, with no significant indicators of market failure which would require government intervention. Efforts to reduce prices through the excessive use of large-scale government procurement programs are likely to reduce diversity and innovation in AT and raise AT prices over time. Open markets and competition with centralised tracking of purchases and providers to minimise possible

  6. Why do stumpage prices increase more than lumber prices?

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; John E. Baumgras; John E. Baumgras

    1998-01-01

    Every sawmiller who has been in business more than 5 years realizes that hardwood stumpage prices tend to increase faster than lumber prices, decreasing the margin between these two prices. Although increases in stumpage versus lumber prices are readily apparent, the reason for the decrease in the margin is not. Recent research findings indicate that the stumpage/...

  7. Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes. 1976 Supplement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halstead, Kent D.

    The 1976 supplement presents higher education price index data for fiscal years 1971 through 1976. The basic study, "Higher Education Prices and Price Indexes" (ED 123 996) presents complete descriptions of the indexes together with index values and price data for fiscal years 1961 through 1974. Indexes are presented for research and development,…

  8. Clinical laboratory test prices in Zimbabwe: A case of profiteering?

    PubMed

    Musarurwa, C; Nyamayaro, T; Mujaji, W B; Matarira, H T; Gomo, Z A R

    2012-01-01

    To compare the prices charged for clinical laboratory tests in Zimbabwean institutions with those of similar institutions abroad. An online analytical cross sectional study was conducted. An online survey. We did an online survey of clinical laboratories that published prices of the tests offered on their websites. We also extracted price information from documents published by fees regulatory authorities. Laboratory test prices for independent institutions, Laboratory test prices for State institutions. Overally for all countries, laboratory test prices were lower in state laboratories compared to the independent laboratories. In Zimbabwe, state laboratories generally charged about 50% of the independent laboratory tariff for most tests. However prices from both Zimbabwean institutions were generally much higher than those of the comparison countries (United Kingdom, South Africa, India, United States of America and New Zealand). Prices of laboratory tests are indeed higher in Zimbabwean institutions compared to other centres abroad. These higher prices could be attributed to challenges in consumable procurement logistics. We also present measures that could be put in place to reduce the costs and therefore prices.

  9. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  10. Pricing and Fee Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Richard B.

    1986-01-01

    Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)

  11. Price percolation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanai, Yasuhiro; Abe, Keiji; Seki, Yoichi

    2015-06-01

    We propose a price percolation model to reproduce the price distribution of components used in industrial finished goods. The intent is to show, using the price percolation model and a component category as an example, that percolation behaviors, which exist in the matter system, the ecosystem, and human society, also exist in abstract, random phenomena satisfying the power law. First, we discretize the total potential demand for a component category, considering it a random field. Second, we assume that the discretized potential demand corresponding to a function of a finished good turns into actual demand if the difficulty of function realization is less than the maximum difficulty of the realization. The simulations using this model suggest that changes in a component category's price distribution are due to changes in the total potential demand corresponding to the lattice size and the maximum difficulty of realization, which is an occupation probability. The results are verified using electronic components' sales data.

  12. Pricing and Fee Management.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fischer, Richard B.

    1986-01-01

    Defines key terms and discusses things to consider when setting fees for a continuing education program. These include (1) the organization's philosophy and mission, (2) certain key variables, (3) pricing strategy options, and (4) the test of reasonableness. (CH)

  13. Price and cost estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stewart, R. D.

    1979-01-01

    Price and Cost Estimating Program (PACE II) was developed to prepare man-hour and material cost estimates. Versatile and flexible tool significantly reduces computation time and errors and reduces typing and reproduction time involved in preparation of cost estimates.

  14. Marginal energy prices report

    SciTech Connect

    Chaitkin, Stuart; Biermayer, Peter; Bretz, Sarah; Brown, Steve; Constantine, Sachu; Fisher, Diane; Hakim, Sajid; Liew, Lucy; Lutz, Jim; Marnay, Chris; McMahon, James E.; Moezzi, Mithra; Osborn, Julie; Rawner, Esther; Roberson, Judy; Rosenquist, Greg; Ryan, Nancy; Turiel, Isaac; Wiel, Stephen

    1999-06-24

    This report responds to a recommendation from the Department of Energy's (DOE) Advisory Committee on Appliance Energy Efficiency Standards. It presents the derivation of estimated consumer marginal energy prices for the commercial and residential sectors for use in the life-cycle cost (LCC) analyses for four of the high priority appliances' energy efficiency standards rule makings --clothes washers, water heaters,fluorescent lamp ballasts, and central airconditioners/heat pumps. Marginal prices as discussed here are those prices consumers pay (or save) for their last units of energy used (or saved). Marginal prices reflect a change in a consumer's bill (that might be associated with new energy efficiency standards) divided by the corresponding change in the amount of energy the consumer used.

  15. Maximum entropy spectral analysis for streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Huijuan; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-01-01

    Configurational entropy spectral analysis (CESAS) is developed with spectral power as a random variable for streamflow forecasting. It is found that the CESAS derived by maximizing the configurational entropy yields the same solution as by the Burg entropy spectral analysis (BESA). Comparison of forecasted streamflows by CESAS and BESA shows less than 0.001% difference between the two analyses and thus the two entropy spectral analyses are concluded to be identical. Thus, the Burg entropy spectral analysis and two configurational entropy spectral analyses form the maximum entropy spectral analysis.

  16. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1989

    Treesearch

    John S. Vissage

    1992-01-01

    In 1989, the average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood was $49.92, an increase of less than 2 percent since 1988. The average delivered price for a green ton of chipped residues increased about 3 percent to $21.70. The total pulpwood expenditure for Midsouth pulpmills increased about 6 percent to $1,658.5 million in 1989. In terms of 1980 dollars,...

  17. Midsouth Pulpwood Prices, 1991

    Treesearch

    Patrick E. Miller

    1993-01-01

    The average delivered price for a cord of Midsouth roundwood in 1991 was $56.39, an increase of 6.5 percent since 1990. Softwood roundwood averaged $58.24 and hardwoods, $50.48 per standard cord, up 2.8 and 7.9 percent, respectively. Chipped residue prices were $26.52 for softwood and $21.0l for hardwood per green ton. The expenditure for wood fiber in the Midsouth...

  18. Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing

    EIA Publications

    1997-01-01

    Presents the results of an analysis that focuses on two questions: (1) How are prices for competitive generation services likely to differ from regulated prices if competitive prices are based on marginal costs rather than regulated cost-of-service pricing? (2) What impacts will the competitive pricing of generation services (based on marginal costs) have on electricity consumption patterns, production costs, and the financial integrity of electricity suppliers?

  19. Common garden comparison of the leaf-out phenology of woody species from different native climates, combined with herbarium records, forecasts long-term change.

    PubMed

    Zohner, Constantin M; Renner, Susanne S

    2014-08-01

    A well-timed phenology is essential for plant growth and reproduction, but species-specific phenological strategies are still poorly understood. Here, we use a common garden approach to compare biannual leaf-out data for 495 woody species growing outdoors in Munich, 90% of them not native to that climate regime. For three species, data were augmented by herbarium dates for 140-year-long time series. We further meta-analysed 107 temperate-zone woody species in which leaf-out cues have been studied, half of them also monitored here. Southern climate-adapted species flushed significantly later than natives, and photoperiod- and chilling- sensitive species all flushed late. The herbarium method revealed the extent of species-specific climate tracking. Our results forecast that: (1) a northward expansion of southern species due to climate warming will increase the number of late flushers in the north, counteracting documented and expected flushing time advances; and (2) photoperiod- and chilling-sensitive woody species cannot rapidly track climate warming.

  20. The ethics of dynamic pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Faruqui, Ahmad

    2010-07-15

    Dynamic pricing has garnered much interest among regulators and utilities, since it has the potential for lowering energy costs for society. But the deployment of dynamic pricing has been remarkably tepid. The underlying premise is that dynamic pricing is unfair. But the presumption of unfairness in dynamic pricing rests on an assumption of fairness in today's tariffs. (author)