Pricing resources in LTE networks through multiobjective optimization.

PubMed

Lai, Yung-Liang; Jiang, Jehn-Ruey

2014-01-01

The LTE technology offers versatile mobile services that use different numbers of resources. This enables operators to provide subscribers or users with differential quality of service (QoS) to boost their satisfaction. On one hand, LTE operators need to price the resources high for maximizing their profits. On the other hand, pricing also needs to consider user satisfaction with allocated resources and prices to avoid "user churn," which means subscribers will unsubscribe services due to dissatisfaction with allocated resources or prices. In this paper, we study the pricing resources with profits and satisfaction optimization (PRPSO) problem in the LTE networks, considering the operator profit and subscribers' satisfaction at the same time. The problem is modelled as nonlinear multiobjective optimization with two optimal objectives: (1) maximizing operator profit and (2) maximizing user satisfaction. We propose to solve the problem based on the framework of the NSGA-II. Simulations are conducted for evaluating the proposed solution.

Pricing of NASA Space Shuttle transportation system cargo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, C. W.

1979-01-01

A two-part pricing policy is investigated as the most feasible method of pricing the transportation services to be provided by NASA's SSTS. Engineering cost estimates and a deterministic operating cost model generate a data base and develop a procedure for pricing the services of the SSTS. It is expected that the SSTS will have a monopoly on space material processing in areas of crystal growth, glass processing, metallurgical space applications, and biomedical processes using electrophoresis which will require efficient pricing. Pricing problems, the SSTS operating costs based on orbit elevation, number of launch sites, and number of flights, capital costs of the SSTS, research and development costs, allocation of joint transportation costs of the SSTS to a particular space processing activity, and rates for the SSTS are discussed. It is concluded that joint costs for commercial cargoes carried in the SSTS can be most usefully handled by making cost allocations based on proportionate capacity utilization.

77 FR 30410 - Jurisdictional Separations and Referral to the Federal-State Joint Board

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-23

... jurisdictional cost allocation factors used in jurisdictional separations until June 30, 2014. Extending the... relationships and allocation factors for price cap carriers and all allocation factors for rate-of-return... extending the current freeze of part 36 category relationships and jurisdictional cost allocation factors...

Randomization in clinical trials in orthodontics: its significance in research design and methods to achieve it.

PubMed

Pandis, Nikolaos; Polychronopoulou, Argy; Eliades, Theodore

2011-12-01

Randomization is a key step in reducing selection bias during the treatment allocation phase in randomized clinical trials. The process of randomization follows specific steps, which include generation of the randomization list, allocation concealment, and implementation of randomization. The phenomenon in the dental and orthodontic literature of characterizing treatment allocation as random is frequent; however, often the randomization procedures followed are not appropriate. Randomization methods assign, at random, treatment to the trial arms without foreknowledge of allocation by either the participants or the investigators thus reducing selection bias. Randomization entails generation of random allocation, allocation concealment, and the actual methodology of implementing treatment allocation randomly and unpredictably. Most popular randomization methods include some form of restricted and/or stratified randomization. This article introduces the reasons, which make randomization an integral part of solid clinical trial methodology, and presents the main randomization schemes applicable to clinical trials in orthodontics.

Public resource pricing: an analysis of range policy.

Treesearch

Thomas M. Quigley; R. Garth Taylor; R. McGreggor Cawley

1988-01-01

Pricing represents an important step in the allocation of scarce resources. Markets, which set the price policy, are not restricted by a simple buyer-seller relation. The Federal grazing-fee policy is at the forefront of controversy surrounding the pricing of all uses of public lands. The pricing process of grazing fees has been cyclical. With few exceptions, the cycle...

Effect of a price discount and consumer education strategy on food and beverage purchases in remote Indigenous Australia: a stepped-wedge randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Brimblecombe, Julie; Ferguson, Megan; Chatfield, Mark D; Liberato, Selma C; Gunther, Anthony; Ball, Kylie; Moodie, Marj; Miles, Edward; Magnus, Anne; Mhurchu, Cliona Ni; Leach, Amanda Jane; Bailie, Ross

2017-02-01

Evidence is mounting that price discounts can be effective in improving diet. This study examined the effectiveness of a 20% price discount on food and drink purchases with and without consumer education in remote Indigenous Australia. A 20% discount on fruit, vegetables, water, and artificially sweetened soft drinks was applied for 24 weeks in 20 communities in remote Indigenous Australia where the community store was managed by the Arnhem Land Progress Aboriginal Corporation (ALPA) or Outback Stores (OBS) in a stepped-wedge randomised trial. Communities were randomly allocated to a fixed framework of five sets of four stratified by store association; ten stores (two in each set) were randomly assigned to receive consumer education. A store from each of the ALPA and OBS store groups (contained in separate opaque envelopes) was selected, and stores in turn continued to be consecutively allocated to the fixed store set framework, starting with the first store slot in the first store set, until all stores had been allocated. The effect of the discount on the weight of fruit and vegetables purchased (the primary endpoint) was assessed using weekly store sales data and mixed models per protocol. We did sensitivity analyses by repeating the analyses with the outliers included and repeating the analyses for the primary outcome measure removing each store one at a time. This trial was registered with Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, number ACTRN12613000694718. Weekly store sales data on all food and drink products sold in 20 stores were collected from July 1, 2012, to Dec 28, 2014. Price discount alone was associated with a 12·7% (95% CI 4·1-22·1) increase in purchases in grams of fruit and vegetables combined (primary outcome), and a 19·8% (6·2-35·1) increase post discount (after vs before); an effect of 12 g and 18 g per capita per day. Sensitivity analyses did not modify the results for the primary outcome measure. A 20% discount can only increase fruit and vegetable purchases to help protect against obesity and diet related disease to a certain extent. Large discounts might have a greater impact than small discounts. Creative merchandising approaches to consumer education could also be considered alongside fiscal interventions to achieve marked improvements in diet. Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Sharing Regional Cooperative Gains From Reusing Effluent for Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinar, Ariel; Yaron, Dan; Kannai, Yakar

1986-03-01

This paper is concerned with the allocation of cost and benefits from regional cooperation, with respect to reuse of municipal effluent for irrigation at the Ramla region of Israel. An efficient regional solution provides the maximal regional income which has to be redistributed among the town and several farms. Different allocations based on marginal cost pricing and schemes from cooperative game theory like the core, Shapley value, generalized Shapley value, and nucleolus are applied. The town and farm A have the main additional gains according to all allocation schemes presented. Advantages and disadvantages of these allocation schemes are examined in order to suggest a fair and acceptable allocation of the regional cooperative gains. Although no method has been preferred, the marginal cost pricing was found to be unacceptable by the participants. The conclusion is that the theory of cooperative games may provide guidelines while comparing the different solutions.

Water allocation for agriculture in southwestern Iran using a programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shahsavari, Zahra

2015-09-01

Water pricing can play a major role in improving water allocation, encouraging users to conserve scarce water resources, and promoting improvements in productivity. In this study, the economic values of water in farms under Dorodzan Dam in southwestern Iran were calculated using linear programming models. The method was applied to three samples of farms that drew irrigation water from a canal, a well, and both a well and a canal. The results of this study revealed that the shadow prices of water in farms varied based on the water sources and time of year. Additionally, the estimated price for water is obviously higher than the price that farmers currently pay for water in the study area. Due to the different economic values of water calculated for different months, it is recommended that the price of irrigation water be adjusted accordingly during various seasons in a fashion similar to that of electrical energy.

Economic impacts of a transition to higher oil prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tessmer, Jr, R. G.; Carhart, S. C.; Marcuse, W.

1978-06-01

Economic impacts of sharply higher oil and gas prices in the eighties are estimated using a combination of optimization and input-output models. A 1985 Base Case is compared with a High Case in which crude oil and crude natural gas are, respectively, 2.1 and 1.4 times as expensive as in the Base Case. Impacts examined include delivered energy prices and demands, resource consumption, emission levels and costs, aggregate and compositional changes in gross national product, balance of payments, output, employment, and sectoral prices. Methodology is developed for linking models in both quantity and price space for energy service--specific fuel demands.more » A set of energy demand elasticities is derived which is consistent between alternative 1985 cases and between the 1985 cases and an historical year (1967). A framework and methodology are also presented for allocating portions of the DOE Conservation budget according to broad policy objectives and allocation rules.« less

Valuation of irrigation water in South-western Iran using a hedonic pricing model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim; Shahsavari, Zahra

2011-12-01

Population growth, improved socioeconomic conditions, increased demand for various types of water use, and a reduction in water supply has created more competition for scarce water supplies leveling many countries. Efficient allocation of water supplies between different economic sectors is therefore very important. Water valuation is a useful tool to determine water price. Water pricing can play a major part in improving water allocation by encouraging users to conserve scarce water resources, and promoting improvements in productivity. We used a hedonic pricing method to reveal the implicit value of irrigation water by analyzing agricultural land values in farms under the Doroodzan dam in South-western Iran. The method was applied to farms in which irrigation water came from wells and canals. The availability of irrigation water was one of the most important factors influencing land prices. The value of irrigation water in the farms investigated was estimated to be 0.046 per cubic meter. The estimated price for water was clearly higher than the price farmers currently pay for water in the area of study. Efficient water pricing could help the sustainability of the water resources. Farmers must therefore be informed of the real value of irrigation water used on their land.

76 FR 13576 - Jurisdictional Separations and Referral to the Federal-State Joint Board

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-14

... relationships and jurisdictional cost allocation factors used in jurisdictional separations. Extending the... allocation factors used in jurisdictional separations, which freeze would otherwise expire on June 30, 2011... factors for price cap carriers and all allocation factors for rate-of-return carriers. Rate-of-return...

76 FR 30840 - Jurisdictional Separations and Referral to the Federal-State Joint Board

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-27

... jurisdictional cost allocation factors used in jurisdictional separations until June 30, 2012. Extending the..., froze all part 36 category relationships and allocation factors for price cap carriers and all allocation factors for rate-of-return carriers. Rate-of-return carriers had the option to freeze their...

Supply chain coordination with two production modes and random demand depending on advertising expenditure and selling price

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Sheng-Dong; Zhou, Yong-Wu; Wang, Jun-Ping

2010-10-01

This article discusses production and order as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-buyer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the buyer who faces a random demand depending on advertising expenditure and selling price. The buyer has two ordering opportunities: the one happens before the beginning of the season, and the other takes place at the end of the season. The ordered items are produced by the manufacturer in two production modes for different requirements. The first production mode is relatively cheap but requires a long lead-time, whereas the second is expensive but offers quick response. Under such a setting, the centralised and decentralised decision models are developed, respectively, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Moreover, we point out that the traditional revenue-sharing contract fails to coordinate the supply chain. We thus propose an improved revenue-sharing contract that requests the manufacturer not only shares the buyer's revenue but also bears a portion of the buyer's operating costs. Such a contract can achieve perfect coordination of the supply chain and arbitrarily allocate its profit between two parties.

Efficient Pricing Technique for Resource Allocation Problem in Downlink OFDM Cognitive Radio Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdulghafoor, O. B.; Shaat, M. M. R.; Ismail, M.; Nordin, R.; Yuwono, T.; Alwahedy, O. N. A.

2017-05-01

In this paper, the problem of resource allocation in OFDM-based downlink cognitive radio (CR) networks has been proposed. The purpose of this research is to decrease the computational complexity of the resource allocation algorithm for downlink CR network while concerning the interference constraint of primary network. The objective has been secured by adopting pricing scheme to develop power allocation algorithm with the following concerns: (i) reducing the complexity of the proposed algorithm and (ii) providing firm power control to the interference introduced to primary users (PUs). The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested for OFDM- CRNs. The simulation results show that the performance of the proposed algorithm approached the performance of the optimal algorithm at a lower computational complexity, i.e., O(NlogN), which makes the proposed algorithm suitable for more practical applications.

Water Market-scale Agricultural Planning: Promoting Competing Water Resource Use Efficiency Through Agro-Economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delorit, J. D.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Where strong water rights law and corresponding markets exist as a coupled econo-legal mechanism, water rights holders are permitted to trade allocations to promote economic water resource use efficiency. In locations where hydrologic uncertainty drives the assignment of annual per-water right allocation values by water resource managers, collaborative water resource decision making by water rights holders, specifically those involved in agricultural production, can result in both resource and economic Pareto efficiency. Such is the case in semi-arid North Chile, where interactions between representative farmer groups, treated as competitive bilateral monopolies, and modeled at water market-scale, can provide both price and water right allocation distribution signals for unregulated, temporary water right leasing markets. For the range of feasible per-water right allocation values, a coupled agricultural-economic model is developed to describe the equilibrium distribution of water, the corresponding market price of water rights and the net surplus generated by collaboration between competing agricultural uses. Further, this research describes a per-water right inflection point for allocations where economic efficiency is not possible, and where price negotiation among competing agricultural uses is required. An investigation of the effects of water right supply and demand inequality at the market-scale is completed to characterize optimal market performance under existing water rights law. The broader insights of this research suggest that water rights holders engaged in agriculture can achieve economic benefits from forming crop-type cooperatives and by accurately assessing the economic value of allocation.

A Greedy Double Auction Mechanism for Grid Resource Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Ding; Luo, Siwei; Gao, Zhan

To improve the resource utilization and satisfy more users, a Greedy Double Auction Mechanism(GDAM) is proposed to allocate resources in grid environments. GDAM trades resources at discriminatory price instead of uniform price, reflecting the variance in requirements for profits and quantities. Moreover, GDAM applies different auction rules to different cases, over-demand, over-supply and equilibrium of demand and supply. As a new mechanism for grid resource allocation, GDAM is proved to be strategy-proof, economically efficient, weakly budget-balanced and individual rational. Simulation results also confirm that GDAM outperforms the traditional one on both the total trade amount and the user satisfaction percentage, specially as more users are involved in the auction market.

42 CFR § 510.325 - Allocation of payments for services that straddle the episode.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2016-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.325 Allocation of payments for services... 42 Public Health 5 2016-10-01 2016-10-01 false Allocation of payments for services that straddle...

42 CFR § 510.325 - Allocation of payments for services that straddle the episode.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2017-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND MODEL PROGRAMS COMPREHENSIVE CARE FOR JOINT REPLACEMENT MODEL Pricing and Payment § 510.325 Allocation of payments for services... 42 Public Health 5 2017-10-01 2017-10-01 false Allocation of payments for services that straddle...

76 FR 13688 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-14

... class-by-class basis which electronic allocation algorithm \\6\\ would apply for rotations. Currently Rule... opening price (with multiple quotes and orders being ranked in accordance with the allocation algorithm in... and quotes ranked in accordance with the allocation algorithm in effect for the class). Any remaining...

Pricing the Services of Scientific Cores. Part II: Charging Outside Users.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fife, Jerry; Forrester, Robert

2002-01-01

Explaining that scientific cores at research institutions support shared resources and facilities, considers pricing of services to users from outside the institution. Proposes a method of allocating charges from the cores to projects with multiple funding sources through program-based management. Describes aspects of an example program: price of…

10 CFR 205.13 - Where to file.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...; (3) The pricing of propane, butane and natural gasoline pursuant to part 212 of this chapter and the allocation of butane and natural gasoline pursuant to part 211 of this chapter; (4) The allocation and...

10 CFR 205.13 - Where to file.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...; (3) The pricing of propane, butane and natural gasoline pursuant to part 212 of this chapter and the allocation of butane and natural gasoline pursuant to part 211 of this chapter; (4) The allocation and...

Congestion Pricing for Aircraft Pushback Slot Allocation.

PubMed

Liu, Lihua; Zhang, Yaping; Liu, Lan; Xing, Zhiwei

2017-01-01

In order to optimize aircraft pushback management during rush hour, aircraft pushback slot allocation based on congestion pricing is explored while considering monetary compensation based on the quality of the surface operations. First, the concept of the "external cost of surface congestion" is proposed, and a quantitative study on the external cost is performed. Then, an aircraft pushback slot allocation model for minimizing the total surface cost is established. An improved discrete differential evolution algorithm is also designed. Finally, a simulation is performed on Xinzheng International Airport using the proposed model. By comparing the pushback slot control strategy based on congestion pricing with other strategies, the advantages of the proposed model and algorithm are highlighted. In addition to reducing delays and optimizing the delay distribution, the model and algorithm are better suited for use for actual aircraft pushback management during rush hour. Further, it is also observed they do not result in significant increases in the surface cost. These results confirm the effectiveness and suitability of the proposed model and algorithm.

Congestion Pricing for Aircraft Pushback Slot Allocation

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yaping

2017-01-01

In order to optimize aircraft pushback management during rush hour, aircraft pushback slot allocation based on congestion pricing is explored while considering monetary compensation based on the quality of the surface operations. First, the concept of the “external cost of surface congestion” is proposed, and a quantitative study on the external cost is performed. Then, an aircraft pushback slot allocation model for minimizing the total surface cost is established. An improved discrete differential evolution algorithm is also designed. Finally, a simulation is performed on Xinzheng International Airport using the proposed model. By comparing the pushback slot control strategy based on congestion pricing with other strategies, the advantages of the proposed model and algorithm are highlighted. In addition to reducing delays and optimizing the delay distribution, the model and algorithm are better suited for use for actual aircraft pushback management during rush hour. Further, it is also observed they do not result in significant increases in the surface cost. These results confirm the effectiveness and suitability of the proposed model and algorithm. PMID:28114429

Hospital competition, resource allocation and quality of care

PubMed Central

Mukamel, Dana B; Zwanziger, Jack; Bamezai, Anil

2002-01-01

Background A variety of approaches have been used to contain escalating hospital costs. One approach is intensifying price competition. The increase in price based competition, which changes the incentives hospitals face, coupled with the fact that consumers can more easily evaluate the quality of hotel services compared with the quality of clinical care, may lead hospitals to allocate more resources into hotel rather than clinical services. Methods To test this hypothesis we studied hospitals in California in 1982 and 1989, comparing resource allocations prior to and following selective contracting, a period during which the focus of competition changed from quality to price. We estimated the relationship between clinical outcomes, measured as risk-adjusted-mortality rates, and resources. Results In 1989, higher competition was associated with lower clinical expenditures levels compared with 1982. The trend was stronger for non-profit hospitals. Lower clinical resource use was associated with worse risk adjusted mortality outcomes. Conclusions This study raises concerns that cost reductions may be associated with increased mortality. PMID:12052258

Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotov, Sergei; Panayides, Stephanos

2005-01-01

The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that option price and random arbitrage returns change on different time scales which allows us to develop an asymptotic pricing theory involving the central limit theorem for random processes. We restrict ourselves to finding pricing bands for options rather than exact prices. The resulting pricing bands are shown to be independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage return. We find that the volatility “smile” can also be explained in terms of random arbitrage opportunities.

Methods for Allocating Highway Costs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

Microeconomic theory and other concepts related to pricing are reviewed and applied to the problem of designing highway user charges. In view of the emphasis in the Congressional request for the Highway Cost Allocation Study on setting charges in acc...

Fair Package Assignment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahaie, Sébastien; Parkes, David C.

We consider the problem of fair allocation in the package assignment model, where a set of indivisible items, held by single seller, must be efficiently allocated to agents with quasi-linear utilities. A fair assignment is one that is efficient and envy-free. We consider a model where bidders have superadditive valuations, meaning that items are pure complements. Our central result is that core outcomes are fair and even coalition-fair over this domain, while fair distributions may not even exist for general valuations. Of relevance to auction design, we also establish that the core is equivalent to the set of anonymous-price competitive equilibria, and that superadditive valuations are a maximal domain that guarantees the existence of anonymous-price competitive equilibrium. Our results are analogs of core equivalence results for linear prices in the standard assignment model, and for nonlinear, non-anonymous prices in the package assignment model with general valuations.

How to Do Random Allocation (Randomization)

PubMed Central

Shin, Wonshik

2014-01-01

Purpose To explain the concept and procedure of random allocation as used in a randomized controlled study. Methods We explain the general concept of random allocation and demonstrate how to perform the procedure easily and how to report it in a paper. PMID:24605197

26 CFR 1.358-2 - Allocation of basis among nonrecognition property.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... respect of shares of stock or securities that were acquired on the same date and at the same price. To the... different prices, the share of stock or security received shall be divided into segments based on the... different prices exchanges such shares of stock or securities under the terms of section 354, 355, or 356...

Using Economic Experiments to Test the Effect of Reliability Pricing and Self-Sizing on the Private Provision of a Public Good Results: The Case of Constructing Water Conveyance Infrastructure to Mitigate Water Quantity and Quality Concerns in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaplan, J.; Howitt, R. E.; Kroll, S.

2016-12-01

Public financing of public projects is becoming more difficult with growing political and financial pressure to reduce the size and scope of government action. Private provision is possible but is often doomed by under-provision. If however, market-like mechanisms could be incorporated into the solicitation of funds to finance the provision of the good, because, for example, the good is supplied stochastically and is divisible, then we would expect fewer incentives to free ride and greater efficiency in providing the public good. In a controlled computer-based economic experiment, we evaluate two market-like conditions (reliability pricing allocation and self-sizing of the good) that are designed to reduce under-provision. The results suggest that financing an infrastructure project when the delivery is allocated based on reliability pricing rather than historical allocation results in significantly greater price formation efficiency and less free riding whether the project is of a fixed size determined by external policy makers or determined endogenously by the sum of private contributions. When reliability pricing and self-sizing (endogenous) mechanism are used in combination free-riding is reduced the greatest among the tested treatments. Furthermore, and as expected, self-sizing when combined with historical allocations results in the worst level of free-riding. This setting for this treatment creates an incentive to undervalue willingness to pay since very low contributions still return positive earnings as long as enough contributions are raised for a single unit. If everyone perceives everyone else is undervaluing their contribution the incentive grows stronger and we see the greatest degree of free riding among the treatments. Lastly, the results from the analysis suggested that the rebate rule may have encouraged those with willingness to pay values less than the cost of the project to feel confident when contributing more than their willingness to pay and to do so when they faced the endogenously-sized, reliability pricing solicitation since a rebate would likely return them positive earnings. In subsequent research we would like to explore the role of the rebate rule in the effectiveness of reliability pricing and self-sizing in increasing price-formation efficiency and reduce free riding.

Allocating scarce financial resources for HIV treatment: benchmarking prices of antiretroviral medicines in Latin America.

PubMed

Wirtz, Veronika J; Santa-Ana-Tellez, Yared; Trout, Clinton H; Kaplan, Warren A

2012-12-01

Public sector price analyses of antiretroviral (ARV) medicines can provide relevant information to detect ARV procurement procedures that do not obtain competitive market prices. Price benchmarks provide a useful tool for programme managers and policy makers to support such planning and policy measures. The aim of the study was to develop regional and global price benchmarks which can be used to analyse public-sector price variability of ARVs in low- and middle-income countries using the procurement prices of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries in 2008 as an example. We used the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) data base, provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), for 13 LAC countries' ARV procurements to analyse the procurement prices of four first-line and three second-line ARV combinations in 2008. First, a cross-sectional analysis was conducted to compare ARV combination prices. Second, four different price 'benchmarks' were created and we estimated the additional number of patients who could have been treated in each country if the ARV combinations studied were purchased at the various reference ('benchmark') prices. Large price variations exist for first- and second-line ARV combinations between countries in the LAC region. Most countries in the LAC region could be treating between 1.17 and 3.8 times more patients if procurement prices were closer to the lowest regional generic price. For all second-line combinations, a price closer to the lowest regional innovator prices or to the global median transaction price for lower-middle-income countries would also result in treating up to nearly five times more patients. Some rational allocation of financial resources due, in part, to price benchmarking and careful planning by policy makers and programme managers can assist a country in negotiating lower ARV procurement prices and should form part of a sustainable procurement policy.

Comparing administered and market-based water allocation systems through a consistent agent-based modeling framework.

PubMed

Zhao, Jianshi; Cai, Ximing; Wang, Zhongjing

2013-07-15

Water allocation can be undertaken through administered systems (AS), market-based systems (MS), or a combination of the two. The debate on the performance of the two systems has lasted for decades but still calls for attention in both research and practice. This paper compares water users' behavior under AS and MS through a consistent agent-based modeling framework for water allocation analysis that incorporates variables particular to both MS (e.g., water trade and trading prices) and AS (water use violations and penalties/subsidies). Analogous to the economic theory of water markets under MS, the theory of rational violation justifies the exchange of entitled water under AS through the use of cross-subsidies. Under water stress conditions, a unique water allocation equilibrium can be achieved by following a simple bargaining rule that does not depend upon initial market prices under MS, or initial economic incentives under AS. The modeling analysis shows that the behavior of water users (agents) depends on transaction, or administrative, costs, as well as their autonomy. Reducing transaction costs under MS or administrative costs under AS will mitigate the effect that equity constraints (originating with primary water allocation) have on the system's total net economic benefits. Moreover, hydrologic uncertainty is shown to increase market prices under MS and penalties/subsidies under AS and, in most cases, also increases transaction, or administrative, costs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wide brick tunnel randomization - an unequal allocation procedure that limits the imbalance in treatment totals.

PubMed

Kuznetsova, Olga M; Tymofyeyev, Yevgen

2014-04-30

In open-label studies, partial predictability of permuted block randomization provides potential for selection bias. To lessen the selection bias in two-arm studies with equal allocation, a number of allocation procedures that limit the imbalance in treatment totals at a pre-specified level but do not require the exact balance at the ends of the blocks were developed. In studies with unequal allocation, however, the task of designing a randomization procedure that sets a pre-specified limit on imbalance in group totals is not resolved. Existing allocation procedures either do not preserve the allocation ratio at every allocation or do not include all allocation sequences that comply with the pre-specified imbalance threshold. Kuznetsova and Tymofyeyev described the brick tunnel randomization for studies with unequal allocation that preserves the allocation ratio at every step and, in the two-arm case, includes all sequences that satisfy the smallest possible imbalance threshold. This article introduces wide brick tunnel randomization for studies with unequal allocation that allows all allocation sequences with imbalance not exceeding any pre-specified threshold while preserving the allocation ratio at every step. In open-label studies, allowing a larger imbalance in treatment totals lowers selection bias because of the predictability of treatment assignments. The applications of the technique in two-arm and multi-arm open-label studies with unequal allocation are described. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mobile access to virtual randomization for investigator-initiated trials.

PubMed

Deserno, Thomas M; Keszei, András P

2017-08-01

Background/aims Randomization is indispensable in clinical trials in order to provide unbiased treatment allocation and a valid statistical inference. Improper handling of allocation lists can be avoided using central systems, for example, human-based services. However, central systems are unaffordable for investigator-initiated trials and might be inaccessible from some places, where study subjects need allocations. We propose mobile access to virtual randomization, where the randomization lists are non-existent and the appropriate allocation is computed on demand. Methods The core of the system architecture is an electronic data capture system or a clinical trial management system, which is extended by an R interface connecting the R server using the Java R Interface. Mobile devices communicate via the representational state transfer web services. Furthermore, a simple web-based setup allows configuring the appropriate statistics by non-statisticians. Our comprehensive R script supports simple randomization, restricted randomization using a random allocation rule, block randomization, and stratified randomization for un-blinded, single-blinded, and double-blinded trials. For each trial, the electronic data capture system or the clinical trial management system stores the randomization parameters and the subject assignments. Results Apps are provided for iOS and Android and subjects are randomized using smartphones. After logging onto the system, the user selects the trial and the subject, and the allocation number and treatment arm are displayed instantaneously and stored in the core system. So far, 156 subjects have been allocated from mobile devices serving five investigator-initiated trials. Conclusion Transforming pre-printed allocation lists into virtual ones ensures the correct conduct of trials and guarantees a strictly sequential processing in all trial sites. Covering 88% of all randomization models that are used in recent trials, virtual randomization becomes available for investigator-initiated trials and potentially for large multi-center trials.

Distributed Multi-Cell Resource Allocation with Price Based ICI Coordination in Downlink OFDMA Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Gangming; Zhu, Shihua; Hui, Hui

Multi-cell resource allocation under minimum rate request for each user in OFDMA networks is addressed in this paper. Based on Lagrange dual decomposition theory, the joint multi-cell resource allocation problem is decomposed and modeled as a limited-cooperative game, and a distributed multi-cell resource allocation algorithm is thus proposed. Analysis and simulation results show that, compared with non-cooperative iterative water-filling algorithm, the proposed algorithm can remarkably reduce the ICI level and improve overall system performances.

Kernel-Correlated Levy Field Driven Forward Rate and Application to Derivative Pricing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bo Lijun; Wang Yongjin; Yang Xuewei, E-mail: xwyangnk@yahoo.com.cn

2013-08-01

We propose a term structure of forward rates driven by a kernel-correlated Levy random field under the HJM framework. The kernel-correlated Levy random field is composed of a kernel-correlated Gaussian random field and a centered Poisson random measure. We shall give a criterion to preclude arbitrage under the risk-neutral pricing measure. As applications, an interest rate derivative with general payoff functional is priced under this pricing measure.

Coalition Formation under Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

world robotics and demonstrate the algorithm’s scalability. This provides a framework well suited to decentralized task allocation in general collectives...impatience and acquiescence to define a robot allocation to a task in a decentralized manner. The tasks are assigned to the entire collective, and one...20] allocates tasks to robots with a first-price auction method [31]. It announces a task with defined metrics, then the robots issue bids. The task

Optimal Pricing and Power Allocation for Collaborative Jamming with Full Channel Knowledge in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Jeong, Dae-Kyo; Kim, Insook; Kim, Dongwoo

2017-01-01

This paper presents a price-searching model in which a source node (Alice) seeks friendly jammers that prevent eavesdroppers (Eves) from snooping legitimate communications by generating interference or noise. Unlike existing models, the distributed jammers also have data to send to their respective destinations and are allowed to access Alice’s channel if it can transmit sufficient jamming power, which is referred to as collaborative jamming in this paper. For the power used to deliver its own signal, the jammer should pay Alice. The price of the jammers’ signal power is set by Alice and provides a tradeoff between the signal and the jamming power. This paper presents, in closed-form, an optimal price that maximizes Alice’s benefit and the corresponding optimal power allocation from a jammers’ perspective by assuming that the network-wide channel knowledge is shared by Alice and jammers. For a multiple-jammer scenario where Alice hardly has the channel knowledge, this paper provides a distributed and interactive price-searching procedure that geometrically converges to an optimal price and shows that Alice by a greedy selection policy achieves certain diversity gain, which increases log-linearly as the number of (potential) jammers grows. Various numerical examples are presented to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model. PMID:29165373

Optimal Pricing and Power Allocation for Collaborative Jamming with Full Channel Knowledge in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Jeong, Dae-Kyo; Kim, Insook; Kim, Dongwoo

2017-11-22

This paper presents a price-searching model in which a source node (Alice) seeks friendly jammers that prevent eavesdroppers (Eves) from snooping legitimate communications by generating interference or noise. Unlike existing models, the distributed jammers also have data to send to their respective destinations and are allowed to access Alice's channel if it can transmit sufficient jamming power, which is referred to as collaborative jamming in this paper. For the power used to deliver its own signal, the jammer should pay Alice. The price of the jammers' signal power is set by Alice and provides a tradeoff between the signal and the jamming power. This paper presents, in closed-form, an optimal price that maximizes Alice's benefit and the corresponding optimal power allocation from a jammers' perspective by assuming that the network-wide channel knowledge is shared by Alice and jammers. For a multiple-jammer scenario where Alice hardly has the channel knowledge, this paper provides a distributed and interactive price-searching procedure that geometrically converges to an optimal price and shows that Alice by a greedy selection policy achieves certain diversity gain, which increases log-linearly as the number of (potential) jammers grows. Various numerical examples are presented to illustrate the behavior of the proposed model.

36 CFR 64.4 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... railroad rights-of-way. Such allocations shall be made for an amount up to the price paid to the owner of... ALLOCATIONS FOR RECREATION AND CONSERVATION USE OF ABANDONED RAILROAD RIGHTS-OF-WAY § 64.4 Scope. (a) Funding... them to acquire and develop abandoned railroad rights-of-way for recreation and conservation purposes...

Allocating Retirement Funds between TIAA and CREF: How Should Participants Choose Now between Fixed and Variable Annuities?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malkiel, Burton G.

1979-01-01

The basic provisions of the TIAA-CREF retirement plans are outlined and the impact of inflation and falling stock prices on annuities and bonds are investigated. Major factors that should be considered when allocating contributions to TIAA-CREF funds are discussed. (SF)

Aggregation of Heterogeneous Time Preferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gollier, Christian; Zeckhauser, Richard

2005-01-01

We examine an economy whose consumers have different discount factors for utility, possibly not exponential. We characterize the properties of efficient allocations of resources and of the shadow prices that would decentralize such allocations. We show in particular that the representative agent has a decreasing discount rate when, as is usually…

77 FR 50471 - Fisheries of the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and South Atlantic; Gulf of Mexico Individual Fishing...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-21

... reporting, share and allocation price reporting, landing notification and landing transaction procedures... to improve price reporting. NMFS is also seeking input on procedural changes to landing notifications, landing transactions, offloading requirements, and other measures intended to enhance IFQ enforcement. No...

48 CFR 1852.243-72 - Equitable adjustments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... assistants, incidental job burdens, small tools, and general overhead allocations. “Commission” is defined as... according to the nature, extent, and complexity of the work involved, but in no case shall they exceed the... basis of the price being determined at the earliest practicable date. In such a case, the price shall...

26 CFR 1.148-1 - Definitions and elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... investments, expenditures, allocations to and from different sources, and particular items of the foregoing... wholesalers. The issue price does not change if part of the issue is later sold at a different price. The... an application of this paragraph (e)(2)(i): Example. Prepayment after contract is executed. In 1998...

26 CFR 1.148-1 - Definitions and elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... investments, expenditures, allocations to and from different sources, and particular items of the foregoing... wholesalers. The issue price does not change if part of the issue is later sold at a different price. The... an application of this paragraph (e)(2)(i): Example. Prepayment after contract is executed. In 1998...

26 CFR 1.148-1 - Definitions and elections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... investments, expenditures, allocations to and from different sources, and particular items of the foregoing... wholesalers. The issue price does not change if part of the issue is later sold at a different price. The... an application of this paragraph (e)(2)(i): Example. Prepayment after contract is executed. In 1998...

Dynamic Interaction between Cap & Trade and Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeev, Kumar

Greenhouse Gases (GHG), such as Carbon-Dioxide (CO2), which is released in the atmosphere due to anthropogenic activities like power production, are now accepted as the main culprits for global warming. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), an initiative of the North East and Mid-Atlantic States of the United States (US) for limiting the emission of GHG, has developed a regional cap-and-trade program for CO2 emissions for power plants. Existing cap-and-trade programs in US and Europe for Greenhouse Gases have recently been plagued by over-allocation. Carbon prices recently collapsed in all these markets during the global recession. Since then, there have been significant policy changes, which have resulted in the adoption of aggressive emission cap targets by most major carbon emission markets. This is expected to make carbon emissions availability more restrictive, raising the prices of these credits. These emissions markets are expected to have a major impact on the wholesale electricity markets. Two models to study the interaction of these two markets are presented. These models assess the impact of the emissions market on wholesale electricity prices. The first model characterizes the competition between two types of power plants (coal and gas) in both the electricity and emissions markets as a dynamic game using the Cournot approximation. Under this approximation, we find that in the Nash equilibrium the plants increase their permit allocation to high-demand periods and the marginal value of each credit for a plant is identical in all periods under their optimal equilibrium strategy. The second numerical model allows us to explicitly evaluate the closed loop equilibrium of the dynamic interaction of two competitors in these markets. We find that plants often try to corner the market and push prices all the way to the price cap. Power plants derive most of their profits from these extreme price regimes. In the experiments where trading is allowed, plants can collude to keep prices at the price cap. These problems can be averted by careful allocation of credits and strong regulation to deter market manipulation.

26 CFR 1.165-3 - Demolition of buildings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... transaction entered into for profit, real property is purchased with the intention of demolishing either... the land and buildings under § 1.167(a)-5. In any event, the portion of the purchase price which may... the purchase price which is allocated to the buildings in accordance with this subparagraph shall not...

A transaction assessment method for allocation of transmission services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banunarayanan, Venkatasubramaniam

The purpose of this research is to develop transaction assessment methods for allocating transmission services that are provided by an area/utility to power transactions. Transmission services are the services needed to deliver, or provide the capacity to deliver, real and reactive power from one or more supply points to one or more delivery points. As the number of transactions increase rapidly in the emerging deregulated environment, accurate quantification of the transmission services an area/utility provides to accommodate a transaction is becoming important, because then appropriate pricing schemes can be developed to compensate for the parties that provide these services. The Allocation methods developed are based on the "Fair Resource Allocation Principle" and they determine for each transaction the following: the flowpath of the transaction (both real and reactive power components), generator reactive power support from each area/utility, real power loss support from each area/utility. Further, allocation methods for distributing the cost of relieving congestion on transmission lines caused by transactions are also developed. The main feature of the proposed methods is representation of actual usage of the transmission services by the transactions. The proposed method is tested extensively on a variety of systems. The allocation methods developed in this thesis for allocation of transmission services to transactions is not only useful in studying the impact of transactions on a transmission system in a multi-transaction case, but they are indeed necessary to meet the criteria set forth by FERC with regard to pricing based on actual usage. The "consistency" of the proposed allocation methods has also been investigated and tested.

The Effect of Price Competition on Weapon System Acquisition costs

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-01

barriers to entry into the weapons production indistry. This practice also reduces the scope of price-compcLtive reprocurement. The implicit tying of R&D... removaL . ’For the serrinal work in this area see H. Leibenstein, "Allocative Efficiency vs. ,h-Efficiency," American Econcmic Review (June 1966). I1 3...If the use of price competition to assign production removes any extra-normal returns earned under sole-source pro- curement policies, firms will no

Determining the Optimal Inventory Management Policy for Naval Medical Center San Diego’s Pharmacy

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

electronic or other system that the pharmacy’s staff can use to determine the actual on hand inventory of any items. If a pharmacist , technician or...pharmacy’s inventory: price, utilization, mix, and innovation (American Society for Health-System Pharmacists [ASHP], 2008). (1) Price Price is the cost...or the Pareto Principle can determine the best way to allocate resources and help plan inventory (American Society for Health-System Pharmacists

Auctions with Dynamic Populations: Efficiency and Revenue Maximization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Said, Maher

We study a stochastic sequential allocation problem with a dynamic population of privately-informed buyers. We characterize the set of efficient allocation rules and show that a dynamic VCG mechanism is both efficient and periodic ex post incentive compatible; we also show that the revenue-maximizing direct mechanism is a pivot mechanism with a reserve price. We then consider sequential ascending auctions in this setting, both with and without a reserve price. We construct equilibrium bidding strategies in this indirect mechanism where bidders reveal their private information in every period, yielding the same outcomes as the direct mechanisms. Thus, the sequential ascending auction is a natural institution for achieving either efficient or optimal outcomes.

A stochastic model for stationary dynamics of prices in real estate markets. A case of random intensity for Poisson moments of prices changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rusakov, Oleg; Laskin, Michael

2017-06-01

We consider a stochastic model of changes of prices in real estate markets. We suppose that in a book of prices the changes happen in points of jumps of a Poisson process with a random intensity, i.e. moments of changes sequently follow to a random process of the Cox process type. We calculate cumulative mathematical expectations and variances for the random intensity of this point process. In the case that the process of random intensity is a martingale the cumulative variance has a linear grows. We statistically process a number of observations of real estate prices and accept hypotheses of a linear grows for estimations as well for cumulative average, as for cumulative variance both for input and output prises that are writing in the book of prises.

Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.

PubMed

Kuznetsova, Olga M

2015-12-30

The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A scalable delivery framework and a pricing model for streaming media with advertisements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Hadrusi, Musab; Sarhan, Nabil J.

2008-01-01

This paper presents a delivery framework for streaming media with advertisements and an associated pricing model. The delivery model combines the benefits of periodic broadcasting and stream merging. The advertisements' revenues are used to subsidize the price of the media content. The pricing is determined based on the total ads' viewing time. Moreover, this paper presents an efficient ad allocation scheme and three modified scheduling policies that are well suited to the proposed delivery framework. Furthermore, we study the effectiveness of the delivery framework and various scheduling polices through extensive simulation in terms of numerous metrics, including customer defection probability, average number of ads viewed per client, price, arrival rate, profit, and revenue.

Quantum-like Viewpoint on the Complexity and Randomness of the Financial Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choustova, Olga

In economics and financial theory, analysts use random walk and more general martingale techniques to model behavior of asset prices, in particular share prices on stock markets, currency exchange rates and commodity prices. This practice has its basis in the presumption that investors act rationally and without bias, and that at any moment they estimate the value of an asset based on future expectations. Under these conditions, all existing information affects the price, which changes only when new information comes out. By definition, new information appears randomly and influences the asset price randomly. Corresponding continuous time models are based on stochastic processes (this approach was initiated in the thesis of [4]), see, e.g., the books of [33] and [37] for historical and mathematical details.

Resource allocation decisions in low-income rural households.

PubMed

Franklin, D L; Harrell, M W

1985-05-01

This paper is based on the theory that a society's nutritional well-being is both a cause and a consequence of the developmental process within that society. An approach to the choices made by poor rural households regarding food acquisition and nurturing behavior is emerging from recent research based on the new economic theory of household production. The central thesis of this approach is that household decisions related to the fulfillment of basic needs are strongly determined by decisions on the allocation of time to household production activities. Summarized are the results of the estimation of a model of household production and consumption behavior with data from a cross-sectional survey of 30 rural communities in Veraguas Province, Panama. The struture of the model consists of allocation of resources to nurturing activities and to production activities. The resources to be allocated are time and market goods, and in theory, these are allocated according to relative prices. The empirical results of this study are generally consistent with the predictions of the neoclassical economic model of household resource allocation. The major conclusions that time allocations and market price conditions matter in the determination of well-being in low-income rural households and, importantly, that nurturing decisions significantly affect the product and factor market behavior of these households form the basis for a discussion on implucations for agricultural and rural development. Programs and policies that seek nutritional improvement should be determined with explicit recognition of the value of time and the importance of timing in the decisions of the poor.

Resourse Allocation and Pricing Principles for a University Computer Centre. Working Paper Series Number 6819.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Possen, Uri M.; And Others

As an introduction, this paper presents a statement of the objectives of the university computing center (UCC) from the viewpoint of the university, the government, the typical user, and the UCC itself. The operating and financial structure of a UCC are described. Three main types of budgeting schemes are discussed: time allocation, pseudo-dollar,…

76 FR 59754 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-27

... priority allocation algorithm for the SPXPM option class,\\5\\ subject to certain conditions. \\5\\ SPXPM is... algorithm in effect for the class, subject to various conditions set forth in subparagraphs (b)(3)(A... permit the allocation algorithm in effect for AIM in the SPXPM option class to be the price-time priority...

Preventing conflicts among bid curves used with transactive controllers in a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Pratt, Robert G.; Hauer, Matthew; Tuffner, Francis K.

2017-03-07

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. One of the disclosed embodiments is a method for operating a transactive thermostatic controller configured to submit bids to a market-based resource allocation system. According to the exemplary method, a first bid curve is determined, the first bid curve indicating a first set of bid prices for corresponding temperatures and being associated with a cooling mode of operation for a heating and cooling system. A second bid curve is also determined, the second bid curve indicating a second set of bid prices for corresponding temperatures and being associated with a heating mode of operation for a heating and cooling system. In this embodiment, the first bid curve, the second bid curve, or both the first bid curve and the second bid curve are modified to prevent overlap of any portion of the first bid curve and the second bid curve.

Theories of the price and quantity of physician services. A synthesis and critique.

PubMed

Farley, P J

1986-12-01

In the traditional neoclassical model of supply and demand, prices determine the allocation of economic resources. The difficulty in applying this model to physician services is the rationing of resources directly by physicians themselves, eliminating the allocative function of prices. Welfare consequences are appropriately judged in terms of efficiency and equity, not departures from the structural relationships implied by supply and demand. As interpreted here, both competitive theories and target-income theories of this market imply that physicians consider both their own welfare and the welfare of their patients in their decision-making. All consumer benefits and all producer costs are internalized by physicians. They consequently have an incentive to obtain the maximum possible social benefit from the resources at their disposal, to the extent that they are (implicitly) allowed to share in the resulting social gains. The distribution of gains between patients and physicians is determined by professional ethics within bounds imposed by competitive forces.

76 FR 71416 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-17

... greater than $100) in premium in each of the front two expiration months and 80% of the time for series... previous trading day's last sale price was greater than $100) in premium across all expiration months in... allocated because the fee is within the range of fees assessed by other exchanges employing similar pricing...

A fuzzy multi-objective model for capacity allocation and pricing policy of provider in data communication service with different QoS levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Wei; Wang, Xianjia; Zhong, Yong-guang; Yu, Lean; Jie, Cao; Ran, Lun; Qiao, Han; Wang, Shouyang; Xu, Xianhao

2012-06-01

Data communication service has an important influence on e-commerce. The key challenge for the users is, ultimately, to select a suitable provider. However, in this article, we do not focus on this aspect but the viewpoint and decision-making of providers for order allocation and pricing policy when orders exceed service capacity. It is a multiple criteria decision-making problem such as profit and cancellation ratio. Meanwhile, we know realistic situations in which much of the input information is uncertain. Thus, it becomes very complex in a real-life environment. In this situation, fuzzy sets theory is the best tool for solving this problem. Our fuzzy model is formulated in such a way as to simultaneously consider the imprecision of information, price sensitive demand, stochastic variables, cancellation fee and the general membership function. For solving the problem, a new fuzzy programming is developed. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The results show that it is effective for determining the suitable order set and pricing policy of provider in data communication service with different quality of service (QoS) levels.

Auction-based bandwidth allocation in the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jiaolong; Zhang, Chi

2002-07-01

It has been widely accepted that auctioning which is the pricing approach with minimal information requirement is a proper tool to manage scare network resources. Previous works focus on Vickrey auction which is incentive compatible in classic auction theory. In the beginning of this paper, the faults of the most representative auction-based mechanisms are discussed. And then a new method called uniform-price auction (UPA), which has the simplest auction rule is proposed and it's incentive compatibility in the network environment is also proved. Finally, the basic mode is extended to support applications which require minimum bandwidth guarantees for a given time period by introducing derivative market, and a market mechanism for network resource allocation which is predictable, riskless, and simple for end-users is completed.

Establishing politically feasible water markets: a multi-criteria approach.

PubMed

Ballestero, Enrique; Alarcón, Silverio; García-Bernabeu, Ana

2002-08-01

A multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) model to simulate the establishment of water markets is developed. The environment is an irrigated area governed by a non-profit agency, which is responsible for water production, allocation, and pricing. There is a traditional situation of historical rights, average-cost pricing for water allocation, large quantities of water used, and inefficiency. A market-oriented policy could be implemented by accounting for ecological and political objectives such as saving groundwater and safeguarding historical rights while promoting economic efficiency. In this paper, a problem is solved by compromise programming, a multi-criteria technique based on the principles of Simonian logic. The model is theoretically developed and applied to the Lorca region in Spain near the Mediterranean Sea.

Quantitative model of price diffusion and market friction based on trading as a mechanistic random process.

PubMed

Daniels, Marcus G; Farmer, J Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-14

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Quantitative Model of Price Diffusion and Market Friction Based on Trading as a Mechanistic Random Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daniels, Marcus G.; Farmer, J. Doyne; Gillemot, László; Iori, Giulia; Smith, Eric

2003-03-01

We model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of markets, such as the diffusion rate of prices (which is the standard measure of financial risk) and the spread and price impact functions (which are the main determinants of transaction cost). Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean-field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Optimizing Irrigation Water Allocation under Multiple Sources of Uncertainty in an Arid River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Y.; Tang, D.; Gao, H.; Ding, Y.

2015-12-01

Population growth and climate change add additional pressures affecting water resources management strategies for meeting demands from different economic sectors. It is especially challenging in arid regions where fresh water is limited. For instance, in the Tailanhe River Basin (Xinjiang, China), a compromise must be made between water suppliers and users during drought years. This study presents a multi-objective irrigation water allocation model to cope with water scarcity in arid river basins. To deal with the uncertainties from multiple sources in the water allocation system (e.g., variations of available water amount, crop yield, crop prices, and water price), the model employs a interval linear programming approach. The multi-objective optimization model developed from this study is characterized by integrating eco-system service theory into water-saving measures. For evaluation purposes, the model is used to construct an optimal allocation system for irrigation areas fed by the Tailan River (Xinjiang Province, China). The objective functions to be optimized are formulated based on these irrigation areas' economic, social, and ecological benefits. The optimal irrigation water allocation plans are made under different hydroclimate conditions (wet year, normal year, and dry year), with multiple sources of uncertainty represented. The modeling tool and results are valuable for advising decision making by the local water authority—and the agricultural community—especially on measures for coping with water scarcity (by incorporating uncertain factors associated with crop production planning).

A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

PubMed

Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

2014-05-01

Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

Cost Allocation and Overpricing of Spare Parts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

5 defense contractors are presently treating spare parts as cost objectives and using a type of spare parts accounting system as described in the...survey instrument. The other 7 contractor respondents who do not treat spare parts as cost objectives were not favor- able to this accounting treatment...company accounting systems or lised to resolve specific contract or formula pricing cost allocation issues, contribute signi- ficantly to overpricing

New FASB standard addresses revenue recognition considerations.

PubMed

McKee, Thomas E

2015-12-01

Healthcare organizations are expected to apply the following steps in revenue recognition under the new standard issued in May 2014 by the Financial Accounting Standards Board: Identify the customer contract. Identify the performance obligations in the contract. Determine the transaction price. Allocate the transaction price to the performance obligations in the contract. Recognize revenue when--or in some circumstances, as--the entity satisfies the performance obligation.

Efficient Double Auction Mechanisms in the Energy Grid with Connected and Islanded Microgrids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqiry, Mohammad Nazif

The future energy grid is expected to operate in a decentralized fashion as a network of autonomous microgrids that are coordinated by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), which should allocate energy to them in an efficient manner. Each microgrid operating in either islanded or grid-connected mode may be considered to manage its own resources. This can take place through auctions with individual units of the microgrid as the agents. This research proposes efficient auction mechanisms for the energy grid, with is-landed and connected microgrids. The microgrid level auction is carried out by means of an intermediate agent called an aggregator. The individual consumer and producer units are modeled as selfish agents. With the microgrid in islanded mode, two aggregator-level auction classes are analyzed: (i) price-heterogeneous, and (ii) price homogeneous. Under the price heterogeneity paradigm, this research extends earlier work on the well-known, single-sided Kelly mechanism to double auctions. As in Kelly auctions, the proposed algorithm implements the bidding without using any agent level private infor-mation (i.e. generation capacity and utility functions). The proposed auction is shown to be an efficient mechanism that maximizes the social welfare, i.e. the sum of the utilities of all the agents. Furthermore, the research considers the situation where a subset of agents act as a coalition to redistribute the allocated energy and price using any other specific fairness criterion. The price homogeneous double auction algorithm proposed in this research ad-dresses the problem of price-anticipation, where each agent tries to influence the equilibri-um price of energy by placing strategic bids. As a result of this behavior, the auction's efficiency is lowered. This research proposes a novel approach that is implemented by the aggregator, called virtual bidding, where the efficiency can be asymptotically maximized, even in the presence of price anticipatory bidders. Next, an auction mechanism for the energy grid, with multiple connected mi-crogrids is considered. A globally efficient bi-level auction algorithm is proposed. At the upper-level, the algorithm takes into account physical grid constraints in allocating energy to the microgrids. It is implemented by the DSO as a linear objective quadratic constraint problem that allows price heterogeneity across the aggregators. In parallel, each aggrega-tor implements its own lower-level price homogeneous auction with virtual bidding. The research concludes with a preliminary study on extending the DSO level auc-tion to multi-period day-ahead scheduling. It takes into account storage units and conven-tional generators that are present in the grid by formulating the auction as a mixed inte-ger linear programming problem.

Evaluation of power system security and development of transmission pricing method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyungchul

The electric power utility industry is presently undergoing a change towards the deregulated environment. This has resulted in unbundling of generation, transmission and distribution services. The introduction of competition into unbundled electricity services may lead system operation closer to its security boundaries resulting in smaller operating safety margins. The competitive environment is expected to lead to lower price rates for customers and higher efficiency for power suppliers in the long run. Under this deregulated environment, security assessment and pricing of transmission services have become important issues in power systems. This dissertation provides new methods for power system security assessment and transmission pricing. In power system security assessment, the following issues are discussed (1) The description of probabilistic methods for power system security assessment; (2) The computation time of simulation methods; (3) on-line security assessment for operation. A probabilistic method using Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed for power system security assessment. This method takes into account dynamic and static effects corresponding to contingencies. Two different Kohonen networks, Self-Organizing Maps and Learning Vector Quantization, are employed to speed up the probabilistic method. The combination of Kohonen networks and Monte-Carlo simulation can reduce computation time in comparison with straight Monte-Carlo simulation. A technique for security assessment employing Bayes classifier is also proposed. This method can be useful for system operators to make security decisions during on-line power system operation. This dissertation also suggests an approach for allocating transmission transaction costs based on reliability benefits in transmission services. The proposed method shows the transmission transaction cost of reliability benefits when transmission line capacities are considered. The ratio between allocation by transmission line capacity-use and allocation by reliability benefits is computed using the probability of system failure.

17 CFR 230.172 - Delivery of prospectuses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... (including the CUSIP number) and otherwise may include only information regarding pricing, allocation and settlement, and information incidental thereto. (b) Transfer of the security. Any obligation under section 5...

17 CFR 230.172 - Delivery of prospectuses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... (including the CUSIP number) and otherwise may include only information regarding pricing, allocation and settlement, and information incidental thereto. (b) Transfer of the security. Any obligation under section 5...

Cooperative Emissions Trading Game: International Permit Market Dominated by Buyers.

PubMed

Honjo, Keita

2015-01-01

Rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is required to mitigate disastrous impacts of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol introduced international emissions trading (IET) to accelerate the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The IET controls CO2 emissions through the allocation of marketable emission permits to sovereign countries. The costs for acquiring additional permits provide buyers with an incentive to reduce their CO2 emissions. However, permit price has declined to a low level during the first commitment period (CP1). The downward trend in permit price is attributed to deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol: weak compliance enforcement, the generous allocation of permits to transition economies (hot air), and the withdrawal of the US. These deficiencies created a buyer's market dominated by price-making buyers. In this paper, I develop a coalitional game of the IET, and demonstrate that permit buyers have dominant bargaining power. In my model, called cooperative emissions trading (CET) game, a buyer purchases permits from sellers only if the buyer forms a coalition with the sellers. Permit price is determined by bargaining among the coalition members. I evaluated the demand-side and supply-side bargaining power (DBP and SBP) using Shapley value, and obtained the following results: (1) Permit price is given by the product of the buyer's willingness-to-pay and the SBP (= 1 - DBP). (2) The DBP is greater than or equal to the SBP. These results indicate that buyers can suppress permit price to low levels through bargaining. The deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol enhance the DBP, and contribute to the demand-side dominance in the international permit market.

A comparative study of restricted randomization procedures for multiarm trials with equal or unequal treatment allocation ratios.

PubMed

Ryeznik, Yevgen; Sverdlov, Oleksandr

2018-06-04

Randomization designs for multiarm clinical trials are increasingly used in practice, especially in phase II dose-ranging studies. Many new methods have been proposed in the literature; however, there is lack of systematic, head-to-head comparison of the competing designs. In this paper, we systematically investigate statistical properties of various restricted randomization procedures for multiarm trials with fixed and possibly unequal allocation ratios. The design operating characteristics include measures of allocation balance, randomness of treatment assignments, variations in the allocation ratio, and statistical characteristics such as type I error rate and power. The results from the current paper should help clinical investigators select an appropriate randomization procedure for their clinical trial. We also provide a web-based R shiny application that can be used to reproduce all results in this paper and run simulations under additional user-defined experimental scenarios. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[The Probabilistic Efficiency Frontier: A Value Assessment of Treatment Options in Hepatitis C].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Sadler, Andrew

2017-06-19

Background The German Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) recommends the concept of the efficiency frontier to assess health care interventions. The efficiency frontier supports regulatory decisions on reimbursement prices for the appropriate allocation of health care resources. Until today this cost-benefit assessment framework has only been applied on the basis of individual patient-relevant endpoints. This contradicts the reality of a multi-dimensional patient benefit. Objective The objective of this study was to illustrate the operationalization of multi-dimensional benefit considering the uncertainty in clinical effects and preference data in order to calculate the efficiency of different treatment options for hepatitis C (HCV). This case study shows how methodological challenges could be overcome in order to use the efficiency frontier for economic analysis and health care decision-making. Method The operationalization of patient benefit was carried out on several patient-relevant endpoints. Preference data from a discrete choice experiment (DCE) study and clinical data based on clinical trials, which reflected the patient and the clinical perspective, respectively, were used for the aggregation of an overall benefit score. A probabilistic efficiency frontier was constructed in a Monte Carlo simulation with 10000 random draws. Patient-relevant endpoints were modeled with a beta distribution and preference data with a normal distribution. The assessment of overall benefit and costs provided information about the adequacy of the treatment prices. The parameter uncertainty was illustrated by the price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit. Results Based on the clinical and preference data in Germany, the interferon-free treatment options proved to be efficient for the current price level. The interferon-free therapies of the latest generation achieved a positive net cost-benefit. Within the decision model, these therapies showed a maximum overall benefit. Due to their high additional benefit and approved prices, the therapies lie above of the extrapolated efficiency frontier, which suggests that these options have efficient reimbursement prices. Considering uncertainty, even a higher price would have resulted in a positive cost-benefit ratio. Conclusion IQWiG's efficiency frontier was used to assess the value of different treatment options in HCV. This study demonstrates that the probabilistic efficiency frontier, price-acceptability-curve and the net monetary benefit can contribute essential information to reimbursement decisions and price negotiations. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Cost accounting to determine prices: how well do prices reflect costs in the German DRG-system?

PubMed

Schreyögg, Jonas; Tiemann, Oliver; Busse, Reinhard

2006-08-01

Germany has recently introduced a system of Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) to engender more appropriate resource allocation. The following article describes the German DRG-system and the methodologies used to determine prices. It analyses the extent to which prices, or calculated cost weights, reflect the actual costs incurred by hospitals for their respective services. We reveal that a "compression" of DRG cost weights occurs, and that the data sample used to calculate cost weights is lacking in terms of its representativeness. Although cost data accuracy has improved over the last few years there are still a number of challenges that need to be addressed.

Generalized networking engineering: optimal pricing and routing in multiservice networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Debasis; Wang, Qiong

2002-07-01

One of the functions of network engineering is to allocate resources optimally to forecasted demand. We generalize the mechanism by incorporating price-demand relationships into the problem formulation, and optimizing pricing and routing jointly to maximize total revenue. We consider a network, with fixed topology and link bandwidths, that offers multiple services, such as voice and data, each having characteristic price elasticity of demand, and quality of service and policy requirements on routing. Prices, which depend on service type and origin-destination, determine demands, that are routed, subject to their constraints, so as to maximize revenue. We study the basic properties of the optimal solution and prove that link shadow costs provide the basis for both optimal prices and optimal routing policies. We investigate the impact of input parameters, such as link capacities and price elasticities, on prices, demand growth, and routing policies. Asymptotic analyses, in which network bandwidth is scaled to grow, give results that are noteworthy for their qualitative insights. Several numerical examples illustrate the analyses.

Financial Data Analysis by means of Coupled Continuous-Time Random Walk in Rachev-Rűschendorf Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurlewicz, A.; Wyłomańska, A.; Żebrowski, P.

2008-09-01

We adapt the continuous-time random walk formalism to describe asset price evolution. We expand the idea proposed by Rachev and Rűschendorf who analyzed the binomial pricing model in the discrete time with randomization of the number of price changes. As a result, in the framework of the proposed model we obtain a mixture of the Gaussian and a generalized arcsine laws as the limiting distribution of log-returns. Moreover, we derive an European-call-option price that is an extension of the Black-Scholes formula. We apply the obtained theoretical results to model actual financial data and try to show that the continuous-time random walk offers alternative tools to deal with several complex issues of financial markets.

Multi-step-ahead crude oil price forecasting using a hybrid grey wave model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yanhui; Zhang, Chuan; He, Kaijian; Zheng, Aibing

2018-07-01

Crude oil is crucial to the operation and economic well-being of the modern society. Huge changes of crude oil price always cause panics to the global economy. There are many factors influencing crude oil price. Crude oil price prediction is still a difficult research problem widely discussed among researchers. Based on the researches on Heterogeneous Market Hypothesis and the relationship between crude oil price and macroeconomic factors, exchange market, stock market, this paper proposes a hybrid grey wave forecasting model, which combines Random Walk (RW)/ARMA to forecast multi-step-ahead crude oil price. More specifically, we use grey wave forecasting model to model the periodical characteristics of crude oil price and ARMA/RW to simulate the daily random movements. The innovation also comes from using the information of the time series graph to forecast crude oil price, since grey wave forecasting is a graphical prediction method. The empirical results demonstrate that based on the daily data of crude oil price, the hybrid grey wave forecasting model performs well in 15- to 20-step-ahead prediction and it always dominates ARMA and Random Walk in correct direction prediction.

Auditory noise increases the allocation of attention to the mouth, and the eyes pay the price: An eye-tracking study.

PubMed

Król, Magdalena Ewa

2018-01-01

We investigated the effect of auditory noise added to speech on patterns of looking at faces in 40 toddlers. We hypothesised that noise would increase the difficulty of processing speech, making children allocate more attention to the mouth of the speaker to gain visual speech cues from mouth movements. We also hypothesised that this shift would cause a decrease in fixation time to the eyes, potentially decreasing the ability to monitor gaze. We found that adding noise increased the number of fixations to the mouth area, at the price of a decreased number of fixations to the eyes. Thus, to our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating a mouth-eyes trade-off between attention allocated to social cues coming from the eyes and linguistic cues coming from the mouth. We also found that children with higher word recognition proficiency and higher average pupil response had an increased likelihood of fixating the mouth, compared to the eyes and the rest of the screen, indicating stronger motivation to decode the speech.

Auditory noise increases the allocation of attention to the mouth, and the eyes pay the price: An eye-tracking study

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

We investigated the effect of auditory noise added to speech on patterns of looking at faces in 40 toddlers. We hypothesised that noise would increase the difficulty of processing speech, making children allocate more attention to the mouth of the speaker to gain visual speech cues from mouth movements. We also hypothesised that this shift would cause a decrease in fixation time to the eyes, potentially decreasing the ability to monitor gaze. We found that adding noise increased the number of fixations to the mouth area, at the price of a decreased number of fixations to the eyes. Thus, to our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating a mouth-eyes trade-off between attention allocated to social cues coming from the eyes and linguistic cues coming from the mouth. We also found that children with higher word recognition proficiency and higher average pupil response had an increased likelihood of fixating the mouth, compared to the eyes and the rest of the screen, indicating stronger motivation to decode the speech. PMID:29558514

Governance of preventive Health Intervention and On time Verification of its Efficiency: the GIOVE Study

PubMed Central

Baio, Gianluca; Montagano, Giuseppe; Cauzillo, Gabriella; Locuratolo, Francesco; Becce, Gerardo; Gitto, Lara; Marcellusi, Andrea; Zweifel, Peter; Capone, Alessandro; Favato, Giampiero

2012-01-01

Objectives The GIOVE Study was aimed to the achievement of allocative efficiency of the budget allocated to the prevention of human papillomavirus (HPV)-induced diseases. An ex-ante determination of the most efficient allocation of resources between screening and multicohort quadrivalent immunisation programmes was followed by the ex-post assessment of the allocative efficiency actually achieved after a 12-month period. Design A bound optimisation model was developed to determine the ex-ante allocative efficiency of resources. The alternatives compared were the screening programme alone and the quadrivalent immunisation with access to screening. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to assess the uncertainty associated with the main inputs of the model. Subsequently, a cohort of girls with a complete recorded vaccination history were enrolled in an observational retrospective study for 18 months to ensure full compliance with the recommended schedule of vaccination (0, 2, 6 months) within a 12-month time horizon. Setting Basilicata region, in the south of Italy. Participants 12 848 girls aged 12, 15, 18 or 25 years. Intervention Immunisation with quadrivalent anti-HPV vaccine. Outcome measures The vaccination coverage rate was considered to be the indicator of the best achievable benefit, given the budgetary constraints. Results Assuming a vaccine price of €100 per dose, a vaccination coverage rate of 59.6% was required for the most effective allocation of resources. The optimal rate of coverage was initially in favour of the multicohort strategy of vaccination against HPV (72.8%±2%). When the price paid for the quadrivalent vaccine dropped to €85 per dose, the most efficient coverage rate (69.5%) shifted closer to the immunisation rate actually achieved during the 12-month observation period. Conclusions The bound optimisation model demonstrated to be a useful approach to the ex-ante allocation and the ex-post assessment of the resources allocated to the implementation of a multicohort quadrivalent anti-HPV vaccination programme. PMID:22422918

The need for randomization in animal trials: an overview of systematic reviews.

PubMed

Hirst, Jennifer A; Howick, Jeremy; Aronson, Jeffrey K; Roberts, Nia; Perera, Rafael; Koshiaris, Constantinos; Heneghan, Carl

2014-01-01

Randomization, allocation concealment, and blind outcome assessment have been shown to reduce bias in human studies. Authors from the Collaborative Approach to Meta Analysis and Review of Animal Data from Experimental Studies (CAMARADES) collaboration recently found that these features protect against bias in animal stroke studies. We extended the scope the work from CAMARADES to include investigations of treatments for any condition. We conducted an overview of systematic reviews. We searched Medline and Embase for systematic reviews of animal studies testing any intervention (against any control) and we included any disease area and outcome. We included reviews comparing randomized versus not randomized (but otherwise controlled), concealed versus unconcealed treatment allocation, or blinded versus unblinded outcome assessment. Thirty-one systematic reviews met our inclusion criteria: 20 investigated treatments for experimental stroke, 4 reviews investigated treatments for spinal cord diseases, while 1 review each investigated treatments for bone cancer, intracerebral hemorrhage, glioma, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, and treatments used in emergency medicine. In our sample 29% of studies reported randomization, 15% of studies reported allocation concealment, and 35% of studies reported blinded outcome assessment. We pooled the results in a meta-analysis, and in our primary analysis found that failure to randomize significantly increased effect sizes, whereas allocation concealment and blinding did not. In our secondary analyses we found that randomization, allocation concealment, and blinding reduced effect sizes, especially where outcomes were subjective. Our study demonstrates the need for randomization, allocation concealment, and blind outcome assessment in animal research across a wide range of outcomes and disease areas. Since human studies are often justified based on results from animal studies, our results suggest that unduly biased animal studies should not be allowed to constitute part of the rationale for human trials.

An empirical analysis of the multimarket contact theory in pharmaceutical markets.

PubMed

Coronado, Javier; Jiménez-Martín, Sergi; Marín, Pedro L

2014-07-01

Multimarket contact theory predicts that firms will optimally reduce prices in markets where collusive prices are sustainable and allocate the slack of the corresponding incentive compatibility to increase prices in markets where collusion is not sustainable. Binding price caps in collusive markets will have different effects over the multimarket contact mechanism depending on the severity of the cap. Setting a price cap close to the unregulated case will increase the size of the redistribution of market power whereas stronger regulation will even reduce prices in unregulated markets. Therefore, price regulations aiming at capping prices in a specific market will also affect markets that are not subject to specific mandatory price regulations. We find evidence of the theory predictions using information for nine OECD countries for pharmaceutical markets. Unregulated US markets are shown to respond to the redistribution effect; Canadian markets, known to be subject to soft price regulations, with respect to the former, are shown to be consistent with a stronger redistribution effect. EU markets and Japan are either consistent with the effect of a medium regulation or strong regulation. In this last case multimarket contact cannot explain prices, and these are expected to be lower compared to the unregulated benchmark.

Pricing Employee Stock Options (ESOs) with Random Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chendra, E.; Chin, L.; Sukmana, A.

2018-04-01

Employee Stock Options (ESOs) are stock options granted by companies to their employees. Unlike standard options that can be traded by typical institutional or individual investors, employees cannot sell or transfer their ESOs to other investors. The sale restrictions may induce the ESO’s holder to exercise them earlier. In much cited paper, Hull and White propose a binomial lattice in valuing ESOs which assumes that employees will exercise voluntarily their ESOs if the stock price reaches a horizontal psychological barrier. Due to nonlinearity errors, the numerical pricing results oscillate significantly so they may lead to large pricing errors. In this paper, we use the random lattice method to price the Hull-White ESOs model. This method can reduce the nonlinearity error by aligning a layer of nodes of the random lattice with a psychological barrier.

Market power in auction and efficiency in emission permits allocation.

PubMed

Jiang, Min Xing; Yang, Dong Xiao; Chen, Zi Yue; Nie, Pu Yan

2016-12-01

This paper analyzes how to achieve the cost-effectiveness by initial allocation of CO 2 emission permits when a single dominant firm in production market has market power in auction, and compare two prevalent allocation patterns, mixed allocation and single auction. We show how the firm with market power may manipulate the auction price, thereby this leads to fail to achieve cost-effective solution by auction unless the total permits for allocation equal to the effective emissions cap. Provided that the market power firm receives strictly positive free permits, the effective emissions cap of mixed allocation is larger than that of single auction. The production market share of dominant firm is increasing with the free permits it holds. Finally, we examine the compliance costs and welfare of mixed allocation and single auction, the result show that the former is preferred to the later when policy makers consider economic welfare without welfare cost due to CO 2 emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Household Chlorination Marketing Strategies: A Randomized Controlled Trial on the Effect of Price and Promotion on Adoption in Haiti.

PubMed

Ritter, Michael; Camille, Eveline; Velcine, Christophe; Guillaume, Rose-Kerline; Lantagne, Daniele

2017-07-01

Household water treatment can reduce diarrheal morbidity and mortality in developing countries, but adoption remains low and supply is often unreliable. To test effects of marketing strategies on consumers and suppliers, we randomized 1,798 households in rural Haiti and collected data on purchases of a household chlorination product for 4 months. Households received randomly selected prices ($0.11-$0.56 per chlorine bottle), and half received monthly visits from sales agents. Each $0.22 drop in price increased purchases by 0.10 bottles per household per month ( P < 0.001). At the mean price, each 1% drop in price increased purchases by 0.45% (elasticity = 0.45). There is suggestive evidence that household visits by some sales agents increased purchases at mid-range prices; however, the additional revenue did not offset visit cost. Choosing the lowest price and conducting visits maximizes chlorine purchase, whereas slightly raising the retail price and not conducting visits maximizes cost recovery. For the equivalent cost, price discounts increase purchases 4.2 times as much as adding visits at the current retail price. In this context, price subsidies may be a more cost-effective use of resources than household visits, though all marketing strategies tested offer cost-effective ways to achieve incremental health impact. Decisions about pricing and promotion for health products in developing countries affect health impact, cost recovery, and cost-effectiveness, and tradeoffs between these goals should be made explicit in program design.

Residential water demand model under block rate pricing: A case study of Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H.; Yang, Z. F.

2009-05-01

In many cities, the inconsistency between water supply and water demand has become a critical problem because of deteriorating water shortage and increasing water demand. Uniform price of residential water cannot promote the efficient water allocation. In China, block water price will be put into practice in the future, but the outcome of such regulation measure is unpredictable without theory support. In this paper, the residential water is classified by the volume of water usage based on economic rules and block water is considered as different kinds of goods. A model based on extended linear expenditure system (ELES) is constructed to simulate the relationship between block water price and water demand, which provide theoretical support for the decision-makers. Finally, the proposed model is used to simulate residential water demand under block rate pricing in Beijing.

[Trends of tobacco demand in Mexico: 1992-1998].

PubMed

Sesma-Vázquez, Sergio; Campuzano-Rincón, Julio César; Carreón-Rodríguez, Víctor Gerardo; Knaul, Felicia; López-Antuñano, Francisco Javier; Hernández-Avila, Mauricio

2002-01-01

This paper aims at describing the behavior of tobacco's demand in Mexico across four one-year periods: 1992, 1994, 1996, and 1998, as well as to estimate a cigarette demand function. A cross-sectional study with longitudinal analysis was conducted. Information sources were the Encuesta Nacional de Ingreso y Gasto de los Hogares (ENIGH) (National Survey of Household Income and Spending) (NHSIS) and the tobacco pack prices reported by the Procuraduría Federal del Consumidor (Profeco) (Federal Office of Consumer's Protection) (FOCP). Spending, income, and prices were deflated to 1994 prices; the population was stratified into quintiles of real income, by rural and urban areas. Indicators of daily consumption of cigarettes and packs were constructed and prices per pack calculated. Adjusted prevalence figures were estimated. Logistic and linear regression models were used for statistical inference; a cigarette demand function was estimated using multivariate logistic regression, to find socioeconomic determinants of cigarette consumption. The adjusted prevalence of household tobacco spending fell from 22.4 to 9.9% between 1992 and 1998. Households allocated more than 4% of their income to tobacco consumption. A trend between income level and cigarette spending was observed, with the first quintile (the poorest population) allocated a greater share of their income than higher quintiles. The average daily consumption of cigarettes increased from 7.5 to 9.8 between 1992 and 1998. It was estimated that 90% of "smoker homes" consumed up to one package per day. The proportion of non-filter cigarettes increased from 0.4 to 4.8% between 1992-1998, with a bigger increase in 1996. Finally, it was found that the most important determinants of spending were prices and income. Policies focusing on tobacco prices would help to reduce tobacco consumption and improve the health of the Mexican population.

Cooperative Emissions Trading Game: International Permit Market Dominated by Buyers

PubMed Central

Honjo, Keita

2015-01-01

Rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is required to mitigate disastrous impacts of climate change. The Kyoto Protocol introduced international emissions trading (IET) to accelerate the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The IET controls CO2 emissions through the allocation of marketable emission permits to sovereign countries. The costs for acquiring additional permits provide buyers with an incentive to reduce their CO2 emissions. However, permit price has declined to a low level during the first commitment period (CP1). The downward trend in permit price is attributed to deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol: weak compliance enforcement, the generous allocation of permits to transition economies (hot air), and the withdrawal of the US. These deficiencies created a buyer’s market dominated by price-making buyers. In this paper, I develop a coalitional game of the IET, and demonstrate that permit buyers have dominant bargaining power. In my model, called cooperative emissions trading (CET) game, a buyer purchases permits from sellers only if the buyer forms a coalition with the sellers. Permit price is determined by bargaining among the coalition members. I evaluated the demand-side and supply-side bargaining power (DBP and SBP) using Shapley value, and obtained the following results: (1) Permit price is given by the product of the buyer’s willingness-to-pay and the SBP (= 1 − DBP). (2) The DBP is greater than or equal to the SBP. These results indicate that buyers can suppress permit price to low levels through bargaining. The deficiencies of the Kyoto Protocol enhance the DBP, and contribute to the demand-side dominance in the international permit market. PMID:26244778

Comparative analysis of used car price evaluation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chuancan; Hao, Lulu; Xu, Cong

2017-05-01

An accurate used car price evaluation is a catalyst for the healthy development of used car market. Data mining has been applied to predict used car price in several articles. However, little is studied on the comparison of using different algorithms in used car price estimation. This paper collects more than 100,000 used car dealing records throughout China to do empirical analysis on a thorough comparison of two algorithms: linear regression and random forest. These two algorithms are used to predict used car price in three different models: model for a certain car make, model for a certain car series and universal model. Results show that random forest has a stable but not ideal effect in price evaluation model for a certain car make, but it shows great advantage in the universal model compared with linear regression. This indicates that random forest is an optimal algorithm when handling complex models with a large number of variables and samples, yet it shows no obvious advantage when coping with simple models with less variables.

Three essays on pricing and risk management in electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotsan, Serhiy

2005-07-01

A set of three papers forms this dissertation. In the first paper I analyze an electricity market that does not clear. The system operator satisfies fixed demand at a fixed price, and attempts to minimize "cost" as indicated by independent generators' supply bids. No equilibrium exists in this situation, and the operator lacks information sufficient to minimize actual cost. As a remedy, we propose a simple efficient tax mechanism. With the tax, Nash equilibrium bids still diverge from marginal cost but nonetheless provide sufficient information to minimize actual cost, regardless of the tax rate or number of generators. The second paper examines a price mechanism with one price assigned for each level of bundled real and reactive power. Equilibrium allocation under this pricing approach raises system efficiency via better allocation of the reactive power reserves, neglected in the traditional pricing approach. Pricing reactive power should be considered in the bundle with real power since its cost is highly dependent on real power output. The efficiency of pricing approach is shown in the general case, and tested on the 30-bus IEEE network with piecewise linear cost functions of the generators. Finally the third paper addresses the problem of optimal investment in generation based on mean-variance portfolio analysis. It is assumed the investor can freely create a portfolio of shares in generation located on buses of the electrical network. Investors are risk averse, and seek to minimize the variance of the weighted average Locational Marginal Price (LMP) in their portfolio, and to maximize its expected value. I conduct simulations using a standard IEEE 68-bus network that resembles the New York - New England system and calculate LMPs in accordance with the PJM methodology for a fully optimal AC power flow solution. Results indicate that the network topology is a crucial determinant of the investment decision as line congestion makes it difficult to deliver power to certain nodes at system peak load. Determining those nodes is an important task for an investor in generation as well as the transmission system operator.

Market prices for water in the semiarid West of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brookshire, David S.; Colby, Bonnie; Ewers, Mary; Ganderton, Philip T.

2004-09-01

Market prices contain information about supply and demand, the institutions that influence both these elements, and the operation of the market. Prices also allocate scarce resources to higher-valued uses. In this paper we analyze the price history of three water markets in the arid Southwest: Arizona's Central Arizona Project, Colorado's Colorado Big Thompson Project, and New Mexico's Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District. Using water transfers over 11 years, we estimate a simultaneous system of market equations, one for price and the other for quantity demanded. Comparison of the institutional characteristics of each market reveals that Colorado's market is well developed, with many trades and rising prices that respond to market conditions, and New Mexico's market is developing well, with lower prices, but showing some response to supply and demand factors. Arizona's market is the least developed, with few trades and very low prices. Our empirical findings support our claim that markets are becoming more efficient in these regions despite the considerable institutional and historical impediments to the evolution of water markets.

Decomposing Cost Efficiency in Regional Long-term Care Provision in Japan.

PubMed

Yamauchi, Yasuhiro

2015-07-12

Many developed countries face a growing need for long-term care provision because of population ageing. Japan is one such example, given its population's longevity and low birth rate. In this study, we examine the efficiency of Japan's regional long-term care system in FY2010 by performing a data envelopment analysis, a non-parametric frontier approach, on prefectural data and separating cost efficiency into technical, allocative, and price efficiencies under different average unit costs across regions. In doing so, we elucidate the structure of cost inefficiency by incorporating a method for restricting weight flexibility to avoid unrealistic concerns arising from zero optimal weight. The results indicate that technical inefficiency accounts for the highest share of losses, followed by price inefficiency and allocation inefficiency. Moreover, the majority of technical inefficiency losses stem from labor costs, particularly those for professional caregivers providing institutional services. We show that the largest share of allocative inefficiency losses can also be traced to labor costs for professional caregivers providing institutional services, while the labor provision of in-home care services shows an efficiency gain. However, although none of the prefectures gains efficiency by increasing the number of professional caregivers for institutional services, quite a few prefectures would gain allocative efficiency by increasing capital inputs for institutional services. These results indicate that preferred policies for promoting efficiency might vary from region to region, and thus, policy implications should be drawn with care.

Weighted re-randomization tests for minimization with unbalanced allocation.

PubMed

Han, Baoguang; Yu, Menggang; McEntegart, Damian

2013-01-01

Re-randomization test has been considered as a robust alternative to the traditional population model-based methods for analyzing randomized clinical trials. This is especially so when the clinical trials are randomized according to minimization, which is a popular covariate-adaptive randomization method for ensuring balance among prognostic factors. Among various re-randomization tests, fixed-entry-order re-randomization is advocated as an effective strategy when a temporal trend is suspected. Yet when the minimization is applied to trials with unequal allocation, fixed-entry-order re-randomization test is biased and thus compromised in power. We find that the bias is due to non-uniform re-allocation probabilities incurred by the re-randomization in this case. We therefore propose a weighted fixed-entry-order re-randomization test to overcome the bias. The performance of the new test was investigated in simulation studies that mimic the settings of a real clinical trial. The weighted re-randomization test was found to work well in the scenarios investigated including the presence of a strong temporal trend. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Some practical problems in implementing randomization.

PubMed

Downs, Matt; Tucker, Kathryn; Christ-Schmidt, Heidi; Wittes, Janet

2010-06-01

While often theoretically simple, implementing randomization to treatment in a masked, but confirmable, fashion can prove difficult in practice. At least three categories of problems occur in randomization: (1) bad judgment in the choice of method, (2) design and programming errors in implementing the method, and (3) human error during the conduct of the trial. This article focuses on these latter two types of errors, dealing operationally with what can go wrong after trial designers have selected the allocation method. We offer several case studies and corresponding recommendations for lessening the frequency of problems in allocating treatment or for mitigating the consequences of errors. Recommendations include: (1) reviewing the randomization schedule before starting a trial, (2) being especially cautious of systems that use on-demand random number generators, (3) drafting unambiguous randomization specifications, (4) performing thorough testing before entering a randomization system into production, (5) maintaining a dataset that captures the values investigators used to randomize participants, thereby allowing the process of treatment allocation to be reproduced and verified, (6) resisting the urge to correct errors that occur in individual treatment assignments, (7) preventing inadvertent unmasking to treatment assignments in kit allocations, and (8) checking a sample of study drug kits to allow detection of errors in drug packaging and labeling. Although we performed a literature search of documented randomization errors, the examples that we provide and the resultant recommendations are based largely on our own experience in industry-sponsored clinical trials. We do not know how representative our experience is or how common errors of the type we have seen occur. Our experience underscores the importance of verifying the integrity of the treatment allocation process before and during a trial. Clinical Trials 2010; 7: 235-245. http://ctj.sagepub.com.

Virtual colonoscopy, optical colonoscopy, or fecal occult blood testing for colorectal cancer screening: results of a pilot randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

You, John J; Liu, Yudong; Kirby, John; Vora, Parag; Moayyedi, Paul

2015-07-09

No head-to-head randomized controlled trials have demonstrated the superiority of one colorectal screening modality over another in reducing colorectal cancer mortality. We conducted a pilot randomized controlled trial of fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), optical colonoscopy (OC), and virtual colonoscopy (VC), to inform the planning of a larger evaluative trial. Eligible patients (aged 50 to 70) were recruited from five primary care practices in Hamilton, ON, Canada, between March 23, 2010 and August 11, 2010, and randomized 1:1:1 in a parallel design using an automated, centralized telephone service to either FOBT, OC, or VC. To reflect conventional practice, patients received no additional reminders to complete their allocated screening test beyond those received in usual practice. The primary outcome was completion of the assigned screening procedure. Results of the index test and any follow-up investigations were ascertained at 6 months. Participants, caregivers, and outcome assessors were not blinded to group assignment. The trial was stopped early due to lack of ongoing funding. A total of 198 participants were enrolled, of whom 67 were allocated to FOBT, 66 to OC, and 65 to VC. The allocated screening procedure was completed by 43 (64%) subjects allocated to FOBT (95% confidence interval [CI], 52-75%), 53 (80%) subjects allocated to OC (95% CI, 69-88%), and 50 (77%) subjects allocated to VC (95% CI, 65-85%); because the trial stopped early, we had insufficient statistical power to detect clinically relevant differences in completion rates. During 6 months follow-up, colorectal adenomas were detected in 0 (0%) subjects allocated to FOBT, 12 (18%) subjects allocated to OC, and 2 (3%) subjects allocated to VC. One subject in the OC arm had histological evidence of high-grade dysplasia. No subjects were diagnosed with colorectal cancer. In this pilot randomized controlled trial of colorectal cancer screening in a primary care setting, 64-80% of subjects completed their allocated screening test. These findings may be of value to investigators planning clinical trials to evaluate the effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00865527. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00865527.

An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money.

PubMed

Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Mendonça, Mario Jorge; Sachsida, Adolfo

2016-01-01

This paper evaluates the effect of a change in the quantity of money on relative prices in the U.S. economy based on quarterly time-series for the period of 1959 to 2013. We also estimate the implication of a change in relative prices on the rate of inflation and macroeconomic variables. The empirical results indicate that the change of money supply not only affects relative prices but also affects the inflation rate and real variables, such as investment, natural rate of unemployment and potential GDP, through the change in relative prices. The relevant finding of our study is that money is not neutral in a non-traditional sense because a change in the money supply disturbs relative prices and, consequently, the allocation of resources in the economy. This finding has serious implications that must be considered in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy.

An Evaluation of the Non-Neutrality of Money

PubMed Central

Moreira, Tito Belchior Silva; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Mendonça, Mario Jorge; Sachsida, Adolfo

2016-01-01

This paper evaluates the effect of a change in the quantity of money on relative prices in the U.S. economy based on quarterly time-series for the period of 1959 to 2013. We also estimate the implication of a change in relative prices on the rate of inflation and macroeconomic variables. The empirical results indicate that the change of money supply not only affects relative prices but also affects the inflation rate and real variables, such as investment, natural rate of unemployment and potential GDP, through the change in relative prices. The relevant finding of our study is that money is not neutral in a non-traditional sense because a change in the money supply disturbs relative prices and, consequently, the allocation of resources in the economy. This finding has serious implications that must be considered in the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. PMID:26934716

49 CFR 33.44 - Instances where assistance may not be provided.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... AND ALLOCATION SYSTEM Special Priorities Assistance § 33.44 Instances where assistance may not be... attempting to: (a) Secure a price advantage; (b) Obtain delivery prior to the time required to fill a rated...

49 CFR 33.44 - Instances where assistance may not be provided.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... AND ALLOCATION SYSTEM Special Priorities Assistance § 33.44 Instances where assistance may not be... attempting to: (a) Secure a price advantage; (b) Obtain delivery prior to the time required to fill a rated...

49 CFR 33.44 - Instances where assistance may not be provided.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... AND ALLOCATION SYSTEM Special Priorities Assistance § 33.44 Instances where assistance may not be... attempting to: (a) Secure a price advantage; (b) Obtain delivery prior to the time required to fill a rated...

Using one-way communications in a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P.; Pratt, Robert G.

2014-07-22

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Electric power grid control using a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P

2014-01-28

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Using bi-directional communications in a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P; Pratt, Robert G

2014-04-01

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Electric power grid control using a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P.

2015-07-21

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Using bi-directional communications in a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P.; Pratt, Robert G.

2015-09-08

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Using bi-directional communications in a market-based resource allocation system

DOEpatents

Chassin, David P; Pratt, Robert G

2015-05-05

Disclosed herein are representative embodiments of methods, apparatus, and systems for distributing a resource (such as electricity) using a resource allocation system. In one exemplary embodiment, a plurality of requests for electricity are received from a plurality of end-use consumers. The requests indicate a requested quantity of electricity and a consumer-requested index value indicative of a maximum price a respective end-use consumer will pay for the requested quantity of electricity. A plurality of offers for supplying electricity are received from a plurality of resource suppliers. The offers indicate an offered quantity of electricity and a supplier-requested index value indicative of a minimum price for which a respective supplier will produce the offered quantity of electricity. A dispatched index value is computed at which electricity is to be supplied based at least in part on the consumer-requested index values and the supplier-requested index values.

Household demand for preventive HIV/AIDS vaccines in Thailand: do husbands' and wives' preferences differ?

PubMed

Whittington, Dale; Suraratdecha, Chutima; Poulos, Christine; Ainsworth, Martha; Prabhu, Vimalanand; Tangcharoensathien, Viroj

2008-01-01

The aims of this study were to estimate household demand in the general population of Thailand for a (hypothetical) preventive HIV vaccine; to determine whether spouses in the same household would purchase the same number of vaccines for household members and have the same demand function; to determine whether spouses would allocate vaccines to the same household members; and to estimate household and per capita average willingness to pay (WTP) for an HIV vaccine price. The data come from a national contingent valuation survey of 2524 residents (aged 18-20 years) of 1235 households in Thailand during the period 2000 to 2001. In a subsample of 561 households, both head of household and spouse completed independent (separate) interviews. Respondents were asked whether they would purchase an HIV vaccine for themselves and for other household members if one were available at a specified price. For the full sample, average household WTP for the vaccine was substantial (US$610 at 50% vaccine effectiveness, US$671 at 95% effectiveness); the average per capita WTP for household members was US$220 at 50% effectiveness and US$242 at 95% effectiveness. Although spouses reported that they would purchase the same total number of vaccines, and had essentially the same demand functions, at lower vaccine prices wives were significantly more likely than husbands to allocate vaccines to their daughters than to sons. Because wives are more likely to allocate vaccines to daughters, vaccination programs aimed at women and girls might have different outcomes than programs directed at males or at all potential adults without regard to sex.

Research on the applications of space technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

Communication satellites and technology transfer are discussed in seven individual reports. Topics cover: (1) NASA'S technological alternatives assuming that the orbit-spectrum resource will continue to be allocated to communication satellite service providers at zero price; (2) the economic aspects of orbit-spectrum allocation; (3) the cost structure of local distribution systems for satellite communication; (4) the economic basis for national science and technology policy; (5) the economics of the household economy; (6) government patent policy; and (7) screening and evaluation in information dissemination.

Water policy sinkhole

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, T.L.

1983-10-01

The pollution of both surface and ground waters and the withdrawal of ground water will present the US with a major water-quality and -supply problem unless changes are made in how we use water. If water is priced at market value instead of relying on federal subsidies, price signals could alter consumption patterns. Other changes that could help are removing restrictions on water transfers and allowing private ownership of waterways and appropriable rights to ground water. These steps, it is felt, would encourage responsible consumption and allocations. (DCK)

Advanced Numerical Methods for Computing Statistical Quantities of Interest from Solutions of SPDES

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-19

and related optimization problems; developing numerical methods for option pricing problems in the presence of random arbitrage return. 1. Novel...equations (BSDEs) are connected to nonlinear partial differen- tial equations and non-linear semigroups, to the theory of hedging and pricing of contingent...the presence of random arbitrage return [3] We consider option pricing problems when we relax the condition of no arbitrage in the Black- Scholes

An Overview of Randomization and Minimization Programs for Randomized Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Saghaei, Mahmoud

2011-01-01

Randomization is an essential component of sound clinical trials, which prevents selection biases and helps in blinding the allocations. Randomization is a process by which subsequent subjects are enrolled into trial groups only by chance, which essentially eliminates selection biases. A serious consequence of randomization is severe imbalance among the treatment groups with respect to some prognostic factors, which invalidate the trial results or necessitate complex and usually unreliable secondary analysis to eradicate the source of imbalances. Minimization on the other hand tends to allocate in such a way as to minimize the differences among groups, with respect to prognostic factors. Pure minimization is therefore completely deterministic, that is, one can predict the allocation of the next subject by knowing the factor levels of a previously enrolled subject and having the properties of the next subject. To eliminate the predictability of randomization, it is necessary to include some elements of randomness in the minimization algorithms. In this article brief descriptions of randomization and minimization are presented followed by introducing selected randomization and minimization programs. PMID:22606659

Ensuring the Reliable Operation of the Power Grid: State-Based and Distributed Approaches to Scheduling Energy and Contingency Reserves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prada, Jose Fernando

Keeping a contingency reserve in power systems is necessary to preserve the security of real-time operations. This work studies two different approaches to the optimal allocation of energy and reserves in the day-ahead generation scheduling process. Part I presents a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment model to co-optimize energy and the locational reserves required to respond to a set of uncertain generation contingencies, using a novel state-based formulation. The model is applied in an offer-based electricity market to allocate contingency reserves throughout the power grid, in order to comply with the N-1 security criterion under transmission congestion. The objective is to minimize expected dispatch and reserve costs, together with post contingency corrective redispatch costs, modeling the probability of generation failure and associated post contingency states. The characteristics of the scheduling problem are exploited to formulate a computationally efficient method, consistent with established operational practices. We simulated the distribution of locational contingency reserves on the IEEE RTS96 system and compared the results with the conventional deterministic method. We found that assigning locational spinning reserves can guarantee an N-1 secure dispatch accounting for transmission congestion at a reasonable extra cost. The simulations also showed little value of allocating downward reserves but sizable operating savings from co-optimizing locational nonspinning reserves. Overall, the results indicate the computational tractability of the proposed method. Part II presents a distributed generation scheduling model to optimally allocate energy and spinning reserves among competing generators in a day-ahead market. The model is based on the coordination between individual generators and a market entity. The proposed method uses forecasting, augmented pricing and locational signals to induce efficient commitment of generators based on firm posted prices. It is price-based but does not rely on multiple iterations, minimizes information exchange and simplifies the market clearing process. Simulations of the distributed method performed on a six-bus test system showed that, using an appropriate set of prices, it is possible to emulate the results of a conventional centralized solution, without need of providing make-whole payments to generators. Likewise, they showed that the distributed method can accommodate transactions with different products and complex security constraints.

Rationing health care: what it is, what it is not, and why we cannot avoid it.

PubMed

Reinhardt, U E

1996-01-01

The word "rationing" has come to play a central role in the national health policy debate. Alas, it is also one of the most misunderstood of words. Its injection into the debate has generated far more heat than light. This chapter reviews the definition of "rationing" preferred by the profession that takes as its task the study of how individuals and society respond to and deal with scarcity, namely, the economics profession. It will be shown that economists usually consider all limits on the distribution of a scarce good or services to be "rationing," whether that limit takes the form of a price barrier or some method of non-price allocation--for example, queues or allocation by lottery. To make a distinction between allocation through freely competitive markets and other forms of resource allocation, economists distinguish between "price rationing" and "non-price rationing." This is a meaningful distinction. Adoption of the economist's definition of "rationing" would greatly clarify the national health policy debate. Next, the discussion turns to the controversial proposition, commonly made by most economists and a handful of their allies in the medical profession, that an economically efficient health care system will inevitably engage in the pervasive withholding of services that may be sought by patients and their physicians, and that it will do so to enhance the quality and efficiency of the health care system overall. If managed competition lives up to its current billing, it will entail rationing of precisely that sort. Unfortunately, the individualist tradition of the United States, as it expresses itself in the tort system, may seriously hinder managed competition from achieving its stated goal. Finally, this chapter offers some conjectures on the approach to rationing likely to be taken by the United States health care system in the twenty-first century. It is argued that, far from having been inconclusive, the most recent congressional debate on health care reform actually gave official sanction to a three-tiered health system, with fairly severe rationing in the bottom tier and virtually none in the top tier. While such tiering has always been present in the U.S. health care system, the phenomenon has hitherto been treated as a blemish to be removed by government--now it will probably remain a permanent fixture.

OFT, VBP: QED?

PubMed

Claxton, Karl

2007-06-01

The report by the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) on the UK pharmaceutical price regulation scheme (PPRS) recommends the reform of the current scheme, which is a combination of profit and price controls, to one where price is based on the health benefits offered by a pharmaceutical. On closer examination some of the more commonly expressed concerns about these proposals do not seem to be well founded. In principle, the OFT's recommendations may contribute to allocative and dynamic efficiency in the NHS. However, there are some dangers and the details of how it will be implemented are crucial. For example, value-based pricing with an inappropriate threshold for cost-effectiveness, or an inappropriate pricing structure, could lead to technologies being adopted at prices where their benefits, in terms of health outcome, do not offset the health displaced elsewhere in the NHS, a situation in which the NHS is damaged rather than improved by innovation. A failure to account for uncertainty and the value of evidence in negotiating prices and coverage could also undermine the evidence base for future NHS practice. Whatever view is taken, the OFT report will inevitably shape the scope of future policy debates about value, guidance, price and innovation.

Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model Greenhouse Gas Version (FASOM-GHG)

EPA Science Inventory

FASOM-GHG is a dynamic, multi-period, intertemporal, price-endogenous, mathematical programming model depicting land transfers and other resource allocations between and within the agricultural and forest sectors in the US. The model solution portrays simultaneous market equilibr...

26 CFR 1.1272-1 - Current inclusion of OID in income.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... the amount of OID pursuant to the following formula: OIDshort = IP×(i/k)×f In which: OIDshort = The amount of OID allocable to the initial short accrual period IP = The issue price of the debt instrument i...

26 CFR 1.1272-1 - Current inclusion of OID in income.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... following formula: OIDshort = IP×(i/k)×f In which: OIDshort = The amount of OID allocable to the initial short accrual period IP = The issue price of the debt instrument i = The yield to maturity expressed as...

Decomposing Cost Efficiency in Regional Long-term Care Provision in Japan

PubMed Central

Yamauchi, Yasuhiro

2016-01-01

Many developed countries face a growing need for long-term care provision because of population ageing. Japan is one such example, given its population's longevity and low birth rate. In this study, we examine the efficiency of Japan's regional long-term care system in FY2010 by performing a data envelopment analysis, a non-parametric frontier approach, on prefectural data and separating cost efficiency into technical, allocative, and price efficiencies under different average unit costs across regions. In doing so, we elucidate the structure of cost inefficiency by incorporating a method for restricting weight flexibility to avoid unrealistic concerns arising from zero optimal weight. The results indicate that technical inefficiency accounts for the highest share of losses, followed by price inefficiency and allocation inefficiency. Moreover, the majority of technical inefficiency losses stem from labor costs, particularly those for professional caregivers providing institutional services. We show that the largest share of allocative inefficiency losses can also be traced to labor costs for professional caregivers providing institutional services, while the labor provision of in-home care services shows an efficiency gain. However, although none of the prefectures gains efficiency by increasing the number of professional caregivers for institutional services, quite a few prefectures would gain allocative efficiency by increasing capital inputs for institutional services. These results indicate that preferred policies for promoting efficiency might vary from region to region, and thus, policy implications should be drawn with care. PMID:26493427

Lay public's understanding of equipoise and randomisation in randomised controlled trials.

PubMed

Robinson, E J; Kerr, C E P; Stevens, A J; Lilford, R J; Braunholtz, D A; Edwards, S J; Beck, S R; Rowley, M G

2005-03-01

To research the lay public's understanding of equipoise and randomisation in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and to look at why information on this may not be not taken in or remembered, as well as the effects of providing information designed to overcome barriers. Investigations were informed by an update of systematic review on patients' understanding of consent information in clinical trials, and by relevant theory and evidence from experimental psychology. Nine investigations were conducted with nine participants. Access (return to education), leisure and vocational courses at Further Education Colleges in the Midlands, UK. Healthy adults with a wide range of educational backgrounds and ages. Participants read hypothetical scenarios and wrote brief answers to subsequent questions. Sub-samples of participants were interviewed individually to elaborate on their written answers. Participants' background assumptions concerning equipoise and randomisation were examined and ways of helping participants recognise the scientific benefits of randomisation were explored. Judgments on allocation methods; treatment preferences; the acceptability of random allocation; whether or not individual doctors could be completely unsure about the best treatment; whether or not doctors should reveal treatment preferences under conditions of collective equipoise; and how sure experts would be about the best treatment following random allocation vs doctor/patient choice. Assessments of understanding hypothetical trial information. Recent literature continues to report trial participants' failure to understand or remember information about randomisation and equipoise, despite the provision of clear and readable trial information leaflets. In current best practice, written trial information describes what will happen without offering accessible explanations. As a consequence, patients may create their own incorrect interpretations and consent or refusal may be inadequately informed. In six investigations, most participants identified which methods of allocation were random, but judged the random allocation methods to be unacceptable in a trial context; the mere description of a treatment as new was insufficient to engender a preference for it over a standard treatment; around half of the participants denied that a doctor could be completely unsure about the best treatment. A majority of participants judged it unacceptable for a doctor to suggest letting chance decide when uncertain of the best treatment, and, in the absence of a justification for random allocation, participants did not recognise scientific benefits of random allocation over normal treatment allocation methods. The pattern of results across three intervention studies suggests that merely supplementing written trial information with an explanation is unlikely to be helpful. However, when people manage to focus on the trial's aim of increasing knowledge (as opposed to making treatment decisions about individuals), and process an explanation actively, they may be helped to understand the scientific reasons for random allocation. This research was not carried out in real healthcare settings. However, participants who could correctly identify random allocation methods, yet judged random allocation unacceptable, doubted the possibility of individual equipoise and saw no scientific benefits of random allocation over doctor/patient choice, are unlikely to draw upon contrasting views if invited to enter a real clinical trial. This suggests that many potential trial participants may have difficulty understanding and remembering trial information that conforms to current best practice in its descriptions of randomisation and equipoise. Given the extent of the disparity between the assumptions underlying trial design and the assumptions held by the lay public, the solution is unlikely to be simple. Nevertheless, the results suggest that including an accessible explanation of the scientific benefits of randomisation may be beneficial provided potential participants are also enabled to reflect on the trial's aim of advancing knowledge, and to think actively about the information presented. Further areas for consideration include: the identification of effective combinations of written and oral information; helping participants to reflect on the aim of advancing knowledge; and an evidence-based approach to leaflet construction.

The role of bioethics in the international prescription drug market: economics and global justice.

PubMed

Newland, Shelby E

2006-01-01

In terms of health care access, bioethics has an important role to inform and shape policy issues and develop interdisciplinary ideas and interventions. The rising price of prescription drugs presents one of the most looming barriers to health care access in the world today. Including both theoretical and practical features of the pharmaceutical industry's behavior is necessary to find ethical solutions towards increasing access. Bioethics can evaluate global justice by weighing human rights theory and future innovation at the macro level, and by addressing market forces and responsibilities at the micro level. Inherent structural features of pharmaceuticals, such as its reliance on research and development, cause the industry to employ pricing strategies that seem counter-intuitive to conventional wisdom, but that result in producing a just allocation as defined by market forces. Parallel trade and drug exportation/reimportation threaten the saliency of the industry's differential pricing scheme; a case-study of a single "Euro-price" within the European Union illustrates how this will actually create harm to the most needy member states. This complex situation requires solutions weighing arguments from human rights theory with those from economic theory to arrive at the most globally just allocation of prescription drugs in the global marketplace, as well as to ensure future innovation and scientific progress. Bioethicists as well as economists need to partake urgently in this discourse for the betterment of the global injustices in the international prescription drug market.

Three essays on auction markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shunda, Nicholas James

This dissertation contains a series of theoretical investigations of auction markets. The essays it contains cover wholesale electricity markets, a popular selling mechanism on eBay, and supplier entry into multi-unit procurement auctions. The study in Chapter 1 compares the procurement cost-minimizing and productive efficiency performance of the auction mechanism used by independent system operators in wholesale electricity auction markets in the U.S. with that of a proposed alternative. The current practice allocates energy contracts as if the auction featured a discriminatory final payment method when, in fact, the markets are uniform price auctions. The proposed alternative explicitly accounts for the market-clearing price during the allocation phase. We find that the proposed alternative largely outperforms the current practice on the basis of procurement costs in the context of simple auction markets featuring both day-ahead and real-time auctions and that the procurement cost advantage of the alternative is complete when we simulate the effects of increased competition. We also find that a tradeoff between the objectives of procurement cost minimization and productive efficiency emerges in our simple auction markets and persists in the face of increased competition. The study in Chapter 2 considers a possible rationale for an auction with a buy price. In an auction with a buy price, the seller provides bidders with an option to end the auction early by accepting a transaction at a posted price. The "Buy-It-Now" option on eBay is a leading example of an auction with a buy price. The study develops a model of an auction with a buy price in which bidders use the auction's reserve price and buy price to formulate a reference price. The model both explains why a revenue-maximizing seller would want to augment her auction with a buy price and demonstrates that the seller sets a higher reserve price when she can affect the bidders' reference price through the auction's reserve price and buy price than when she can affect the bidders' reference price through the auction's reserve price only. Introducing a small reference-price effect can shrink the range of buy prices bidders are willing to exercise. The comparative statics properties of bidding behavior are in sharp contrast to equilibrium behavior in other models where the existence and size of the auction's buy price have no effect on bidding behavior. The study in Chapter 3 investigates endogenous entry in multi-unit auctions. We formulate and study models of multi-unit discriminatory and uniform price auctions and investigate the entry incentives and procurement costs they generate in equilibrium. We study two types of endogenous entry: in auctions with "interim entry costs," suppliers know their private cost information before deciding whether or not to undertake entry; in auctions with ex ante entry costs, suppliers do not know their private cost information before deciding whether or not to enter. The discriminatory and uniform price auctions are efficient and procurement cost equivalent in all the environments we study. With interim entry costs, the two auctions provide identical entry incentives. In contrast, with ex ante entry costs, suppliers enter the discriminatory auction at a higher rate than they enter the uniform price auction.

Incentive pricing and cost recovery at the basin scale.

PubMed

Ward, Frank A; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2009-01-01

Incentive pricing programs have potential to promote economically efficient water use patterns and provide a revenue source to compensate for environmental damages. However, incentive pricing may impose disproportionate costs and aggravate poverty where high prices are levied for basic human needs. This paper presents an analysis of a two-tiered water pricing system that sets a low price for subsistence needs, while charging a price equal to marginal cost, including environmental cost, for discretionary uses. This pricing arrangement can promote efficient and sustainable water use patterns, goals set by the European Water Framework Directive, while meeting subsistence needs of poor households. Using data from the Rio Grande Basin of North America, a dynamic nonlinear program, maximizes the basin's total net economic and environmental benefits subject to several hydrological and institutional constraints. Supply costs, environmental costs, and resource costs are integrated in a model of a river basin's hydrology, economics, and institutions. Three programs are compared: (1) Law of the River, in which water allocations and prices are determined by rules governing water transfers; (2) marginal cost pricing, in which households pay the full marginal cost of supplying treated water; (3) two-tiered pricing, in which households' subsistence water needs are priced cheaply, while discretionary uses are priced at efficient levels. Compared to the Law of the River and marginal cost pricing, two-tiered pricing performs well for efficiency and adequately for sustainability and equity. Findings provide a general framework for formulating water pricing programs that promote economically and environmentally efficient water use programs while also addressing other policy goals.

Applying Activity Based Costing (ABC) Method to Calculate Cost Price in Hospital and Remedy Services

PubMed Central

Rajabi, A; Dabiri, A

2012-01-01

Background Activity Based Costing (ABC) is one of the new methods began appearing as a costing methodology in the 1990’s. It calculates cost price by determining the usage of resources. In this study, ABC method was used for calculating cost price of remedial services in hospitals. Methods: To apply ABC method, Shahid Faghihi Hospital was selected. First, hospital units were divided into three main departments: administrative, diagnostic, and hospitalized. Second, activity centers were defined by the activity analysis method. Third, costs of administrative activity centers were allocated into diagnostic and operational departments based on the cost driver. Finally, with regard to the usage of cost objectives from services of activity centers, the cost price of medical services was calculated. Results: The cost price from ABC method significantly differs from tariff method. In addition, high amount of indirect costs in the hospital indicates that capacities of resources are not used properly. Conclusion: Cost price of remedial services with tariff method is not properly calculated when compared with ABC method. ABC calculates cost price by applying suitable mechanisms but tariff method is based on the fixed price. In addition, ABC represents useful information about the amount and combination of cost price services. PMID:23113171

Universal Behavior of Extreme Price Movements in Stock Markets

PubMed Central

Fuentes, Miguel A.; Gerig, Austin; Vicente, Javier

2009-01-01

Many studies assume stock prices follow a random process known as geometric Brownian motion. Although approximately correct, this model fails to explain the frequent occurrence of extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes. Using a large collection of data from three different stock markets, we present evidence that a modification to the random model—adding a slow, but significant, fluctuation to the standard deviation of the process—accurately explains the probability of different-sized price changes, including the relative high frequency of extreme movements. Furthermore, we show that this process is similar across stocks so that their price fluctuations can be characterized by a single curve. Because the behavior of price fluctuations is rooted in the characteristics of volatility, we expect our results to bring increased interest to stochastic volatility models, and especially to those that can produce the properties of volatility reported here. PMID:20041178

The non-random walk of stock prices: the long-term correlation between signs and sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Spada, G.; Farmer, J. D.; Lillo, F.

2008-08-01

We investigate the random walk of prices by developing a simple model relating the properties of the signs and absolute values of individual price changes to the diffusion rate (volatility) of prices at longer time scales. We show that this benchmark model is unable to reproduce the diffusion properties of real prices. Specifically, we find that for one hour intervals this model consistently over-predicts the volatility of real price series by about 70%, and that this effect becomes stronger as the length of the intervals increases. By selectively shuffling some components of the data while preserving others we are able to show that this discrepancy is caused by a subtle but long-range non-contemporaneous correlation between the signs and sizes of individual returns. We conjecture that this is related to the long-memory of transaction signs and the need to enforce market efficiency.

Shifting orders among suppliers considering risk, price and transportation cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revitasari, C.; Pujawan, I. N.

2018-04-01

Supplier order allocation is an important supply chain decision for an enterprise. It is related to the supplier’s function as a raw material provider and other supporting materials that will be used in production process. Most of works on order allocation has been based on costs and other supply chain performance, but very limited of them taking risks into consideration. In this paper we address the problem of order allocation of a single commodity sourced from multiple suppliers considering supply risks in addition to the attempt of minimizing transportation costs. The supply chain risk was investigated and a procedure was proposed in the risk mitigation phase as a form of risk profile. The objective including risk profile in order allocation is to maximize the product flow from a risky supplier to a relatively less risky supplier. The proposed procedure is applied to a sugar company. The result suggests that order allocations should be maximized to suppliers that have a relatively low risk and minimized to suppliers that have a relatively larger risks.

Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

2016-04-01

In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

PubMed Central

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

Fund allocation within Australian dental care: an innovative approach to output based funding.

PubMed

Tennant, M; Carrello, C; Kruger, E

2005-12-01

Over the last 15 years in Australia the process of funding government health care has changed significantly. The development of dental funding models that transparently meet both the service delivery needs for data at the treatment level and policy makers' need for health condition data is critical to the continued integration of dentistry into the wider health system. This paper presents a model of fund allocation that provides a communication construct that addresses the needs of both policy makers and service providers. In this model, dental treatments (dental item numbers) have been grouped into eight broad dental health conditions. Within each dental health condition, a weighted average price is determined using the Department of Veterans Affairs' (DVA) fee schedule as the benchmark, adjusted for the mix of care. The model also adjusts for the efficiency differences between sectors providing government funded dental care. In summary, the price to be applied to a dental health condition category is determined by the weighted average DVA price adjusted by the sector efficiency. This model allows governments and dental service providers to develop funding agreements that both quantify and justify the treatment to be provided. Such a process facilitates the continued integration of dental care into the wider health system.

Store-directed price promotions and communications strategies improve healthier food supply and demand: impact results from a randomized controlled, Baltimore City store-intervention trial

PubMed Central

Budd, Nadine; Jeffries, Jayne K; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Kharmats, Anna; McDermott, Ann Yelmokas; Gittelsohn, Joel

2017-01-01

Objective Small food store interventions show promise to increase healthy food access in under-resourced areas. However, none have tested the impact of price discounts on healthy food supply and demand. We tested the impact of store-directed price discounts and communications strategies, separately and combined, on the stocking, sales and prices of healthier foods and on storeowner psychosocial factors. Design Factorial design randomized controlled trial. Setting Twenty-four corner stores in low-income neighbourhoods of Baltimore City, MD, USA. Subjects Stores were randomized to pricing intervention, communications intervention, combined pricing and communications intervention, or control. Stores that received the pricing intervention were given a 10–30% price discount by wholesalers on selected healthier food items during the 6-month trial. Communications stores received visual and interactive materials to promote healthy items, including signage, taste tests and refrigerators. Results All interventions showed significantly increased stock of promoted foods υ. control. There was a significant treatment effect for daily unit sales of healthy snacks (β = 6·4, 95% CI 0·9, 11·9) and prices of healthy staple foods (β = −0·49, 95% CI −0·90, −0·03) for the combined group υ. control, but not for other intervention groups. There were no significant intervention effects on storeowner psychosocial factors. Conclusions All interventions led to increased stock of healthier foods. The combined intervention was effective in increasing sales of healthier snacks, even though discounts on snacks were not passed to the consumer. Experimental research in small stores is needed to understand the mechanisms by which store-directed price promotions can increase healthy food supply and demand. PMID:28222818

Store-directed price promotions and communications strategies improve healthier food supply and demand: impact results from a randomized controlled, Baltimore City store-intervention trial.

PubMed

Budd, Nadine; Jeffries, Jayne K; Jones-Smith, Jessica; Kharmats, Anna; McDermott, Ann Yelmokas; Gittelsohn, Joel

2017-12-01

Small food store interventions show promise to increase healthy food access in under-resourced areas. However, none have tested the impact of price discounts on healthy food supply and demand. We tested the impact of store-directed price discounts and communications strategies, separately and combined, on the stocking, sales and prices of healthier foods and on storeowner psychosocial factors. Factorial design randomized controlled trial. Twenty-four corner stores in low-income neighbourhoods of Baltimore City, MD, USA. Stores were randomized to pricing intervention, communications intervention, combined pricing and communications intervention, or control. Stores that received the pricing intervention were given a 10-30 % price discount by wholesalers on selected healthier food items during the 6-month trial. Communications stores received visual and interactive materials to promote healthy items, including signage, taste tests and refrigerators. All interventions showed significantly increased stock of promoted foods v. There was a significant treatment effect for daily unit sales of healthy snacks (β=6·4, 95 % CI 0·9, 11·9) and prices of healthy staple foods (β=-0·49, 95 % CI -0·90, -0·03) for the combined group v. control, but not for other intervention groups. There were no significant intervention effects on storeowner psychosocial factors. All interventions led to increased stock of healthier foods. The combined intervention was effective in increasing sales of healthier snacks, even though discounts on snacks were not passed to the consumer. Experimental research in small stores is needed to understand the mechanisms by which store-directed price promotions can increase healthy food supply and demand.

Does subsidy work? Price elasticity of demand for influenza vaccination among the elderly in Japan.

PubMed

Kondo, Masahide; Hoshi, Shu-ling; Okubo, Ichiro

2009-08-01

Subsidy for influenza vaccination is often provided to the elderly in order to encourage them to receive a flu shot in developed countries. However, its effect on uptake rate, i.e., price elasticity of demand, has not been well studied. Japan's decentralised vaccination programme allows observation of various pairs in price and uptake rate of flu shots among the elderly by the municipality from 2001/2002 to 2004/2005 season. We combine our sample survey data (n=281), which monitor price, subsidy and uptake rate, with published data on local characteristics in order to estimate price elasticity of demand with panel model. We find price elasticity of demand for influenza vaccine: nearly zero in nationwide, nearly zero in urban area, and -1.07 in rural area. The results question the rationale for subsidy, especially in urban area. There are cases where maintaining or increasing the level of subsidy is not an efficient allocation of finite health care resources. When organising a vaccination programme, health manager should be careful about the balance between subsidy and other efforts in order to encourage the elderly to receive shots with price elasticity in mind.

Financial Aid Administration Today: Considerations for Campus Leaders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hart, Natala K.

1996-01-01

In serving students, financial aid officers must address issues outside the scope of the financial aid program, including admissions, academic policy, institutional bureaucracy, student consumer education, and pricing. These require policy decisions and resource allocations the financial aid administrator cannot make alone. Cooperation and support…

Are pricing and reimbursement decision-making criteria aligned with public preferences regarding allocation principles in the Polish healthcare sector?

PubMed

Kolasa, Katarzyna

2014-10-01

Given growing interest in multicriteria decision making and multiple cost-effectiveness thresholds' approach, it was decided to investigate its usefulness in Poland. The pricing and reimbursement (P&R) regulations were reviewed and a cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst nurses. The study investigated whether P&R rules are aligned with the preferences of healthcare professional towards the concept of equity. The references to aversion to inequalities in health and capacity to benefit were recognized as the most and least important principle respectively by the group of nurses. Different weightings of health gain dependent on disease severity were accepted by half of the study's population. In the review of legal acts, references to capacity to benefit were frequently found. The opposite was registered for other concepts of equity. There is room for further improvement with respect to the alignment between the Polish P&R decision making criteria and public preferences regarding allocation principles.

On Market-Based Coordination of Thermostatically Controlled Loads With User Preference

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Sen; Zhang, Wei; Lian, Jianming

2014-12-15

This paper presents a market-based control framework to coordinate a group of autonomous Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL) to achieve the system-level objectives with pricing incentives. The problem is formulated as maximizing the social welfare subject to feeder power constraint. It allows the coordinator to affect the aggregated power of a group of dynamical systems, and creates an interactive market where the users and the coordinator cooperatively determine the optimal energy allocation and energy price. The optimal pricing strategy is derived, which maximizes social welfare while respecting the feeder power constraint. The bidding strategy is also designed to compute the optimalmore » price in real time (e.g., every 5 minutes) based on local device information. The coordination framework is validated with realistic simulations in GridLab-D. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively maximizes the social welfare and decreases power congestion at key times.« less

Variability in Parameter Estimates and Model Fit across Repeated Allocations of Items to Parcels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sterba, Sonya K.; MacCallum, Robert C.

2010-01-01

Different random or purposive allocations of items to parcels within a single sample are thought not to alter structural parameter estimates as long as items are unidimensional and congeneric. If, additionally, numbers of items per parcel and parcels per factor are held fixed across allocations, different allocations of items to parcels within a…

Monetary Policy Rules, Supply Shocks, and the Price-Level Elasticity of Aggregate Demand: A Graphical Examination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyer, Ben L.; Maggs, Gary E.

1995-01-01

Utilizes two-dimensional price and output graphs to demonstrate the way that the price-level elasticity of aggregate demand affects alternative monetary policy rules designed to cope with random aggregate supply shocks. Includes graphs illustrating price-level, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), nominal GDP, and nominal money supply targeting.…

Randomized Sequential Individual Assignment in Social Experiments: Evaluating the Design Options Prospectively

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lohr, Sharon L.; Zhu, Xiaoshu

2017-01-01

Many randomized experiments in the social sciences allocate subjects to treatment arms at the time the subjects enroll. Desirable features of the mechanism used to assign subjects to treatment arms are often (1) equal numbers of subjects in intervention and control arms, (2) balanced allocation for population subgroups and across covariates, (3)…

Methodological reporting quality of randomized controlled trials: A survey of seven core journals of orthopaedics from Mainland China over 5 years following the CONSORT statement.

PubMed

Zhang, J; Chen, X; Zhu, Q; Cui, J; Cao, L; Su, J

2016-11-01

In recent years, the number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in the field of orthopaedics is increasing in Mainland China. However, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are inclined to bias if they lack methodological quality. Therefore, we performed a survey of RCT to assess: (1) What about the quality of RCTs in the field of orthopedics in Mainland China? (2) Whether there is difference between the core journals of the Chinese department of orthopedics and Orthopaedics Traumatology Surgery & Research (OTSR). This research aimed to evaluate the methodological reporting quality according to the CONSORT statement of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in seven key orthopaedic journals published in Mainland China over 5 years from 2010 to 2014. All of the articles were hand researched on Chongqing VIP database between 2010 and 2014. Studies were considered eligible if the words "random", "randomly", "randomization", "randomized" were employed to describe the allocation way. Trials including animals, cadavers, trials published as abstracts and case report, trials dealing with subgroups analysis, or trials without the outcomes were excluded. In addition, eight articles selected from Orthopaedics Traumatology Surgery & Research (OTSR) between 2010 and 2014 were included in this study for comparison. The identified RCTs are analyzed using a modified version of the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT), including the sample size calculation, allocation sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding and handling of dropouts. A total of 222 RCTs were identified in seven core orthopaedic journals. No trials reported adequate sample size calculation, 74 (33.4%) reported adequate allocation generation, 8 (3.7%) trials reported adequate allocation concealment, 18 (8.1%) trials reported adequate blinding and 16 (7.2%) trials reported handling of dropouts. In OTSR, 1 (12.5%) trial reported adequate sample size calculation, 4 (50.0%) reported adequate allocation generation, 1 (12.5%) trials reported adequate allocation concealment, 2 (25.0%) trials reported adequate blinding and 5 (62.5%) trials reported handling of dropouts. There were statistical differences as for sample size calculation and handling of dropouts between papers from Mainland China and OTSR (P<0.05). The findings of this study show that the methodological reporting quality of RCTs in seven core orthopaedic journals from the Mainland China is far from satisfaction and it needs to further improve to keep up with the standards of the CONSORT statement. Level III case control. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A generic minimization random allocation and blinding system on web.

PubMed

Cai, Hongwei; Xia, Jielai; Xu, Dezhong; Gao, Donghuai; Yan, Yongping

2006-12-01

Minimization is a dynamic randomization method for clinical trials. Although recommended by many researchers, the utilization of minimization has been seldom reported in randomized trials mainly because of the controversy surrounding the validity of conventional analyses and its complexity in implementation. However, both the statistical and clinical validity of minimization were demonstrated in recent studies. Minimization random allocation system integrated with blinding function that could facilitate the implementation of this method in general clinical trials has not been reported. SYSTEM OVERVIEW: The system is a web-based random allocation system using Pocock and Simon minimization method. It also supports multiple treatment arms within a trial, multiple simultaneous trials, and blinding without further programming. This system was constructed with generic database schema design method, Pocock and Simon minimization method and blinding method. It was coded with Microsoft Visual Basic and Active Server Pages (ASP) programming languages. And all dataset were managed with a Microsoft SQL Server database. Some critical programming codes were also provided. SIMULATIONS AND RESULTS: Two clinical trials were simulated simultaneously to test the system's applicability. Not only balanced groups but also blinded allocation results were achieved in both trials. Practical considerations for minimization method, the benefits, general applicability and drawbacks of the technique implemented in this system are discussed. Promising features of the proposed system are also summarized.

77 FR 74549 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-14

... allocation of the purchase price among the transferred assets. Affected Public: Private Sector: Businesses or... Transactions With Foreign Trusts and on Large Foreign Gifts. Abstract: This notice provides guidance on the foreign trust and foreign gift information reporting provisions contained in the Small Business Job...

47 CFR 69.156 - Marketing expenses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Marketing expenses. 69.156 Section 69.156... Computation of Charges for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers § 69.156 Marketing expenses. Effective July 1, 2000, the marketing expenses formerly allocated to the common line and traffic sensitive baskets, and...

47 CFR 69.156 - Marketing expenses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Marketing expenses. 69.156 Section 69.156... Computation of Charges for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers § 69.156 Marketing expenses. Effective July 1, 2000, the marketing expenses formerly allocated to the common line and traffic sensitive baskets, and...

47 CFR 69.156 - Marketing expenses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Marketing expenses. 69.156 Section 69.156... Computation of Charges for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers § 69.156 Marketing expenses. Effective July 1, 2000, the marketing expenses formerly allocated to the common line and traffic sensitive baskets, and...

47 CFR 69.156 - Marketing expenses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Marketing expenses. 69.156 Section 69.156... Computation of Charges for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers § 69.156 Marketing expenses. Effective July 1, 2000, the marketing expenses formerly allocated to the common line and traffic sensitive baskets, and...

47 CFR 69.156 - Marketing expenses.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Marketing expenses. 69.156 Section 69.156... Computation of Charges for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers § 69.156 Marketing expenses. Effective July 1, 2000, the marketing expenses formerly allocated to the common line and traffic sensitive baskets, and...

Pricing Films, Filmstrips and Records.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Epstein, Connie C.

1984-01-01

Examines pricing practices of major producers of educational materials: Weston Woods, Listening Library, Random House Educational Media, Live Oak Media, S&S Communications Group, Phoenix/BFA, Benchmark, and Churchill Films. Royalties, production and manufacturing costs, list prices, recoveries to producers, and marketing are noted. (EJS)

A critical appraisal of the reporting quality of published randomized controlled trials in the fall injuries.

PubMed

Asghari Jafarabadi, Mohammad; Sadeghi-Bazrgani, Homayoun; Dianat, Iman

2018-06-01

To evaluate the quality of reporting in published randomized controlled trials (RTCs) in the field of fall injuries. The 188 RTCs published between 2001 and 2011, indexed in EMBASE and Medline databases were extracted through searching by appropriate keywords and EMTree classification terms. The evaluation trustworthiness was assured through parallel evaluations of two experts in epidemiology and biostatistics. About 40%-75% of papers had problems in reporting random allocation method, allocation concealment, random allocation implementation, blinding and similarity among groups, intention to treat and balancing benefits and harms. Moreover, at least 10% of papers inappropriately/not reported the design, protocol violations, sample size justification, subgroup/adjusted analyses, presenting flow diagram, drop outs, recruitment time, baseline data, suitable effect size on outcome, ancillary analyses, limitations and generalizability. Considering the shortcomings found and due to the importance of the RCTs for fall injury prevention programmes, their reporting quality should be improved.

Differences in liquor prices between control state-operated and license-state retail outlets in the United States.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Albers, Alison B; Naimi, Timothy S; Jernigan, David H

2013-02-01

This study aims to compare the average price of liquor in the United States between retail alcohol outlets in states that have a monopoly ('control' states) with those that do not ('licence' states). A cross-sectional study of brand-specific alcohol prices in the United States. We determined the average prices in February 2012 of 74 brands of liquor among the 13 control states that maintain a monopoly on liquor sales at the retail level and among a sample of 50 license-state liquor stores, using their online-available prices. We calculated average prices for 74 brands of liquor by control versus license state. We used a random-effects regression model to estimate differences between control and license state prices-overall and by alcoholic beverage type. We also compared prices between the 13 control states. The overall mean price for the 74 brands was $27.79 in the license states [95% confidence interval (CI): $25.26-30.32] and $29.82 in the control states (95% CI: $26.98-32.66). Based on the random-effects linear regression model, the average liquor price was approximately $2 lower (6.9% lower) in license states. In the United States monopoly of alcohol retail outlets appears to be associated with slightly higher liquor prices. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Differences in liquor prices between control state-operated and license-state retail outlets in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Siegel, Michael; DeJong, William; Albers, Alison B.; Naimi, Timothy S.; Jernigan, David H.

2012-01-01

Aims This study aims to compare the average price of liquor in the United States between retail alcohol outlets in states that have a monopoly ('control' states) with those that do not ('licence' states). Design A cross-sectional study of brand-specific alcohol prices in the United States. Setting We determined the average prices in February 2012 of 74 brands of liquor among the 13 control states that maintain a monopoly on liquor sales at the retail level and among a sample of 50 license-state liquor stores, using their online-available prices. Measurements We calculated average prices for 74 brands of liquor by control vs. license state. We used a random effects regression model to estimate differences between control and license state prices – overall and by alcoholic beverage type. We also compared prices between the 13 control states. Findings The overall mean price for the 74 brands was $27.79 in the license states (95% confidence interval [CI], $25.26–$30.32) and $29.82 in the control states (95% CI, $26.98–$32.66). Based on the random effects linear regression model, the average liquor price was approximately two dollars lower (6.9% lower) in license states. Conclusions In the United States monopoly of alcohol retail outlets appears to be associated with slightly higher liquor prices. PMID:22934914

Statistical Power and Optimum Sample Allocation Ratio for Treatment and Control Having Unequal Costs Per Unit of Randomization

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Xiaofeng

2003-01-01

This article considers optimal sample allocation between the treatment and control condition in multilevel designs when the costs per sampling unit vary due to treatment assignment. Optimal unequal allocation may reduce the cost from that of a balanced design without sacrificing any power. The optimum sample allocation ratio depends only on the…

An observational study showed that explaining randomization using gambling-related metaphors and computer-agency descriptions impeded randomized clinical trial recruitment.

PubMed

Jepson, Marcus; Elliott, Daisy; Conefrey, Carmel; Wade, Julia; Rooshenas, Leila; Wilson, Caroline; Beard, David; Blazeby, Jane M; Birtle, Alison; Halliday, Alison; Stein, Rob; Donovan, Jenny L

2018-07-01

To explore how the concept of randomization is described by clinicians and understood by patients in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and how it contributes to patient understanding and recruitment. Qualitative analysis of 73 audio recordings of recruitment consultations from five, multicenter, UK-based RCTs with identified or anticipated recruitment difficulties. One in 10 appointments did not include any mention of randomization. Most included a description of the method or process of allocation. Descriptions often made reference to gambling-related metaphors or similes, or referred to allocation by a computer. Where reference was made to a computer, some patients assumed that they would receive the treatment that was "best for them". Descriptions of the rationale for randomization were rarely present and often only came about as a consequence of patients questioning the reason for a random allocation. The methods and processes of randomization were usually described by recruiters, but often without clarity, which could lead to patient misunderstanding. The rationale for randomization was rarely mentioned. Recruiters should avoid problematic gambling metaphors and illusions of agency in their explanations and instead focus on clearer descriptions of the rationale and method of randomization to ensure patients are better informed about randomization and RCT participation. Copyright © 2018 University of Bristol. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Labor Supply and Consumption of Food in a Closed Economy under a Range of Fixed- and Random-Ratio Schedules: Tests of Unit Price

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madden, Gregory J.; Dake, Jamie M.; Mauel, Ellie C.; Rowe, Ryan R.

2005-01-01

The behavioral economic concept of unit price predicts that consumption and response output (labor supply) are determined by the unit price at which a good is available regardless of the value of the cost and benefit components of the unit price ratio. Experiment 1 assessed 4 pigeons' consumption and response output at a range of unit prices. In…

Influence of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: outcomes of the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Ball, Kylie; McNaughton, Sarah A; Le, Ha N D; Gold, Lisa; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Abbott, Gavin; Pollard, Christina; Crawford, David

2015-05-01

Fiscal strategies are increasingly considered upstream nutrition promotion measures. However, few trials have investigated the effectiveness or cost effectiveness of pricing manipulations on diet in real-world settings. We assessed the effects on fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchasing and consumption of a 20% price-reduction intervention, a tailored skills-based behavior-change intervention, and a combined intervention compared with a control condition. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was a randomized controlled trial conducted over 3 mo [baseline (time 1) to postintervention (time 2) with a 6-mo follow-up (time 3)]. Female primary household shoppers in Melbourne, Australia, were randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price-reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price-reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Supermarket transaction data and surveys were used to measure the following study outcomes: fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchases and self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption at each time point. At 3 mo (time 2), price reduction-alone participants purchased more total vegetables and frozen vegetables than did controls. Price reduction-alone and price reduction-plus-skill-building participants purchased more fruit than did controls. Relative to controls, in the price-reduction group, total vegetable consumption increased by 233 g/wk (3.1 servings or 15% more than at baseline), and fruit purchases increased by 364 g/wk (2.4 servings; 35% more than at baseline). Increases were not maintained 6 mo postintervention (time 3). Price reduction-alone participants showed a tendency for a slight increase in fruit consumption at time 2 (P = 0.09) that was maintained at time 3 (P = 0.014). No intervention improved purchases of bottled water or low-calorie beverages. A 20% price reduction in fruit and vegetables resulted in increased purchasing per household of 35% for fruit and 15% for vegetables over the price-reduction period. These findings show that price modifications can directly increase produce purchases. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials Registration as ISRCTN39432901. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Disappointment and adherence among parents of newborns allocated to the control group: a qualitative study of a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Meinich Petersen, Sandra; Zoffmann, Vibeke; Kjærgaard, Jesper; Graff Stensballe, Lone; Graff Steensballe, Lone; Greisen, Gorm

2014-04-15

When a child participates in a clinical trial, informed consent has to be given by the parents. Parental motives for participation are complex, but the hope of getting a new and better treatment for the child is important. We wondered how parents react when their child is allocated to the control group of a randomized controlled trial, and how it will affect their future engagement in the trial. We included parents of newborns randomized to the control arm in the Danish Calmette study at Rigshospitalet in Copenhagen. The Calmette study is a randomized clinical trial investigating the non-specific effects of early BCG-vaccine to healthy neonates. Randomization is performed immediately after birth and parents are not blinded to the allocation. We set up a semi-structured focus group with six parents from four families. Afterwards we telephone-interviewed another 19 mothers to achieve saturation. Thematic analysis was used to identify themes across the data sets. The parents reported good understanding of the randomization process. Their most common reaction to allocation was disappointment, though relief was also seen. A model of reactions to being allocated to the control group was developed based on the participants' different positions along two continuities from 'Our participation in trial is not important' to 'Our participation in trial is important', and 'Vaccine not important to us' to 'Vaccine important to us'. Four very disappointed families had thought of getting the vaccine elsewhere, and one had actually had their child vaccinated. All parents involved in the focus group and the telephone interviews wanted to participate in the follow-ups planned for the Calmette study. This study identified an almost universal experience of disappointment among parents of newborns who were randomized to the control group, but also a broad expression of understanding and accepting the idea of randomization. The trial staff might use the model of reactions in understanding the parents' disappointment and in this way support their motives for participation. A generalized version might be applicable across randomized controlled trials at large. The Calmette study is registered in EudraCT (https://eudract.ema.europa.eu/) with trial number 2010-021979-85.

Eigenvalue density of cross-correlations in Sri Lankan financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilantha, K. G. D. R.; Ranasinghe; Malmini, P. K. C.

2007-05-01

We apply the universal properties with Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) of random matrices namely spectral properties, distribution of eigenvalues, eigenvalue spacing predicted by random matrix theory (RMT) to compare cross-correlation matrix estimators from emerging market data. The daily stock prices of the Sri Lankan All share price index and Milanka price index from August 2004 to March 2005 were analyzed. Most eigenvalues in the spectrum of the cross-correlation matrix of stock price changes agree with the universal predictions of RMT. We find that the cross-correlation matrix satisfies the universal properties of the GOE of real symmetric random matrices. The eigen distribution follows the RMT predictions in the bulk but there are some deviations at the large eigenvalues. The nearest-neighbor spacing and the next nearest-neighbor spacing of the eigenvalues were examined and found that they follow the universality of GOE. RMT with deterministic correlations found that each eigenvalue from deterministic correlations is observed at values, which are repelled from the bulk distribution.

Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

2018-06-01

In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

32 CFR 165.6 - Procedures.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... defense equipment are sold at a reduced price due to age or condition, the nonrecurring cost recoupment... set forth in this part shall determine the allocation basis for recouping from the third party... the policies in this part to sales to third parties by any of the parties to the agreement and for the...

Internal Labor Markets: An Empirical Investigation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mahoney, Thomas A.; Milkovich, George T.

Methods of internal labor market analysis for three organizational areas are presented, along with some evidence about the validity and utility of conceptual descriptions of such markets. The general concept of an internal labor market refers to the process of pricing and allocation of manpower resources with an employing organization and rests…

75 FR 36147 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-24

..., as Modified by Amendment No. 1 Thereto, Related to the Hybrid Matching Algorithms June 17, 2010. On... Hybrid System. Each rule currently provides allocation algorithms the Exchange can utilize when executing incoming electronic orders, including the Ultimate Matching Algorithm (``UMA''), and price-time and pro...

Fixing the Net Tuition Revenue Dilemma: The Dickinson College Story

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Massa, Robert J.; Parker, Annette S.

2007-01-01

This chapter describes how Dickinson College, guided by a strategic plan, addressed its net tuition revenue problem through effective decision support, marketing and branding approaches, and pricing and financial aid strategies. The college's strategic plan guides allocation of resources toward fulfilling the college's purpose of providing an…

Price percolation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanai, Yasuhiro; Abe, Keiji; Seki, Yoichi

2015-06-01

We propose a price percolation model to reproduce the price distribution of components used in industrial finished goods. The intent is to show, using the price percolation model and a component category as an example, that percolation behaviors, which exist in the matter system, the ecosystem, and human society, also exist in abstract, random phenomena satisfying the power law. First, we discretize the total potential demand for a component category, considering it a random field. Second, we assume that the discretized potential demand corresponding to a function of a finished good turns into actual demand if the difficulty of function realization is less than the maximum difficulty of the realization. The simulations using this model suggest that changes in a component category's price distribution are due to changes in the total potential demand corresponding to the lattice size and the maximum difficulty of realization, which is an occupation probability. The results are verified using electronic components' sales data.

A Simplified Treatment of Brownian Motion and Stochastic Differential Equations Arising in Financial Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parlar, Mahmut

2004-01-01

Brownian motion is an important stochastic process used in modelling the random evolution of stock prices. In their 1973 seminal paper--which led to the awarding of the 1997 Nobel prize in Economic Sciences--Fischer Black and Myron Scholes assumed that the random stock price process is described (i.e., generated) by Brownian motion. Despite its…

Coordinating a Supply Chain with Price and Advertisement Dependent Stochastic Demand

PubMed Central

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers. PMID:24453832

Coordinating a supply chain with price and advertisement dependent stochastic demand.

PubMed

Li, Liying; Wang, Yong; Yan, Xiaoming

2013-01-01

This paper investigates pricing and ordering as well as advertising coordination issues in a single-manufacturer single-retailer supply chain, where the manufacturer sells a newsvendor-type product through the retailer who faces a stochastic demand depending on both retail price and advertising expenditure. Under the assumption that the market demand has a multiplicative functional form, the Stackelberg and cooperative game models are developed, and the closed form solution to each model is provided as well. Comparisons and insights are presented. We show that a properly designed revenue-cost-sharing contract can achieve supply chain coordination and lead to a Pareto improving win-win situation for channel members. We also discuss the allocation of the extra joint profit according to individual supply chain members' risk preferences and negotiating powers.

Evaluation of Contribution for Voltage Control Ancillary Services Based on Social Surplus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueki, Yuji; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

Reactive power supply plays an important role in active power supply with adequate system voltages. Various pricing mechanism for reactive power supply have been developed and some of them are adopted in some power systems, however they are in a trial stage. The authors also focus on development of a pricing method for reactive power ancillary services. This problem involves two technical issues: rational estimation of the cost associated with reactive power supply and fair and transparent allocation of the estimated cost among the market participants. This paper proposes methods for evaluating the contribution of generators and demands.

Synaptic Tagging During Memory Allocation

PubMed Central

Rogerson, Thomas; Cai, Denise; Frank, Adam; Sano, Yoshitake; Shobe, Justin; Aranda, Manuel L.; Silva, Alcino J.

2014-01-01

There is now compelling evidence that the allocation of memory to specific neurons (neuronal allocation) and synapses (synaptic allocation) in a neurocircuit is not random and that instead specific mechanisms, such as increases in neuronal excitability and synaptic tagging and capture, determine the exact sites where memories are stored. We propose an integrated view of these processes, such that neuronal allocation, synaptic tagging and capture, spine clustering and metaplasticity reflect related aspects of memory allocation mechanisms. Importantly, the properties of these mechanisms suggest a set of rules that profoundly affect how memories are stored and recalled. PMID:24496410

47 CFR 1.1417 - Allocation of Unusable Space Costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Allocation of Unusable Space Costs. 1.1417... by Random Selection Pole Attachment Complaint Procedures § 1.1417 Allocation of Unusable Space Costs... providing unusable space on a pole so that such apportionment equals two-thirds of the costs of providing...

47 CFR 1.1417 - Allocation of Unusable Space Costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Allocation of Unusable Space Costs. 1.1417... by Random Selection Pole Attachment Complaint Procedures § 1.1417 Allocation of Unusable Space Costs... providing unusable space on a pole so that such apportionment equals two-thirds of the costs of providing...

47 CFR 1.1417 - Allocation of Unusable Space Costs.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Allocation of Unusable Space Costs. 1.1417... by Random Selection Pole Attachment Complaint Procedures § 1.1417 Allocation of Unusable Space Costs... providing unusable space on a pole so that such apportionment equals two-thirds of the costs of providing...

Robust allocation of a defensive budget considering an attacker's private information.

PubMed

Nikoofal, Mohammad E; Zhuang, Jun

2012-05-01

Attackers' private information is one of the main issues in defensive resource allocation games in homeland security. The outcome of a defense resource allocation decision critically depends on the accuracy of estimations about the attacker's attributes. However, terrorists' goals may be unknown to the defender, necessitating robust decisions by the defender. This article develops a robust-optimization game-theoretical model for identifying optimal defense resource allocation strategies for a rational defender facing a strategic attacker while the attacker's valuation of targets, being the most critical attribute of the attacker, is unknown but belongs to bounded distribution-free intervals. To our best knowledge, no previous research has applied robust optimization in homeland security resource allocation when uncertainty is defined in bounded distribution-free intervals. The key features of our model include (1) modeling uncertainty in attackers' attributes, where uncertainty is characterized by bounded intervals; (2) finding the robust-optimization equilibrium for the defender using concepts dealing with budget of uncertainty and price of robustness; and (3) applying the proposed model to real data. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Societal views on NICE, cancer drugs fund and value-based pricing criteria for prioritising medicines: a cross-sectional survey of 4118 adults in Great Britain.

PubMed

Linley, Warren G; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2013-08-01

The criteria used by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) for accepting higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for some medicines over others, and the recent introduction of the Cancer Drugs Fund (CDF) in England, are assumed to reflect societal preferences for National Health Service resource allocation. Robust empirical evidence to this effect is lacking. To explore societal preferences for these and other criteria, including those proposed for rewarding new medicines under the future value-based pricing (VBP) system, we conducted a choice-based experiment in 4118 UK adults via web-based surveys. Preferences were determined by asking respondents to allocate fixed funds between different patient and disease types reflecting nine specific prioritisation criteria. Respondents supported the criteria proposed under the VBP system (for severe diseases, address unmet needs, are innovative--provided they offered substantial health benefits, and have wider societal benefits) but did not support the end-of-life premium or the prioritisation of children or disadvantaged populations as specified by NICE, nor the special funding status for treatments of rare diseases, nor the CDF. Policies introduced on the basis of perceived--and not actual--societal values may lead to inappropriate resource allocation decisions with the potential for significant population health and economic consequences. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Behavioral Economic Measures of Alcohol Reward Value as Problem Severity Indicators in College Students

PubMed Central

Skidmore, Jessica R.; Murphy, James G.; Martens, Matthew P.

2014-01-01

The aims of the current study were to examine the associations among behavioral economic measures of alcohol value derived from three distinct measurement approaches, and to evaluate their respective relations with traditional indicators of alcohol problem severity in college drinkers. Five behavioral economic metrics were derived from hypothetical demand curves that quantify reward value by plotting consumption and expenditures as a function of price, another metric measured proportional behavioral allocation and enjoyment related to alcohol versus other activities, and a final metric measured relative discretionary expenditures on alcohol. The sample included 207 heavy drinking college students (53% female) who were recruited through an on-campus health center or university courses. Factor analysis revealed that the alcohol valuation construct comprises two factors: one factor that reflects participants’ levels of alcohol price sensitivity (demand persistence), and a second factor that reflects participants’ maximum consumption and monetary and behavioral allocation towards alcohol (amplitude of demand). The demand persistence and behavioral allocation metrics demonstrated the strongest and most consistent multivariate relations with alcohol-related problems, even when controlling for other well-established predictors. The results suggest that behavioral economic indices of reward value show meaningful relations with alcohol problem severity in young adults. Despite the presence of some gender differences, these measures appear to be useful problem indicators for men and women. PMID:24749779

Addressing the shortage of kidneys for transplantation: purchase and allocation through chain auctions.

PubMed

Rosen, Lara; Vining, Aidan R; Weimer, David L

2011-08-01

Transplantation is generally the treatment of choice for those suffering from kidney failure. Not only does transplantation offer improved quality of life and increased longevity relative to dialysis, it also reduces end-stage renal disease program expenditures, providing savings to Medicare. Unfortunately, the waiting list for kidney transplants is long, growing, and unlikely to be substantially reduced by increases in the recovery of cadaveric kidneys. Another approach is to obtain more kidneys through payment to living "donors," or vendors. Such direct commodification, in which a price is placed on kidneys, has generally been opposed by medical ethicists. Much of the ethical debate, however, has been in terms of commodification through market exchange. Recognizing that there are different ethical concerns associated with the purchase of kidneys and their allocation, it is possible to design a variety of institutional arrangements for the commodification of kidneys that pose different sets of ethical concerns. We specify three such alternatives in detail sufficient to allow an assessment of their likely consequences and we compare these alternatives to current policy in terms of the desirable goals of promoting human dignity, equity, efficiency, and fiscal advantage. This policy analysis leads us to recommend that kidneys be purchased at administered prices by a nonprofit organization and allocated to the transplant centers that can organize the longest chains of transplants involving willing-but-incompatible donor-patient dyads.

Funding innovation for treatment for rare diseases: adopting a cost-based yardstick approach

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Manufacturers justify the high prices for orphan drugs on the basis that the associated R&D costs must be spread over few patients. The proliferation of these drugs in the last three decades, combined with high prices commonly in excess of $100,000 per patient per year are placing a substantial strain on the budgets of drug plans in many countries. Do insurers spend a growing portion of their budgets on small patient populations, or leave vulnerable patients without coverage for valuable treatments? We suggest that a third option is present in the form of a cost-based regulatory mechanism. Methods This article explores the use of a cost-based price control mechanism for orphan drugs, adapted from the standard models applied in utilities regulation. Results and conclusions A rate-of-return style model, employing yardsticked cost allocations and a modified two-stage rate of return calculation could be effective in setting a new standard for orphan drugs pricing. This type of cost-based pricing would limit the costs faced by insurers while continuing to provide an efficient incentive for new drug development. PMID:24237605

Optimal Operation and Value Evaluation of Pumped Storage Power Plants Considering Spot Market Trading and Uncertainty of Bilateral Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Kenta; Hara, Ryoichi; Kita, Hiroyuki; Hasegawa, Jun

In recent years, as the deregulation in electric power industry has advanced in many countries, a spot market trading of electricity has been done. Generation companies are allowed to purchase the electricity through the electric power market and supply electric power for their bilateral customers. Under this circumstance, it is important for the generation companies to procure the required electricity with cheaper cost to increase their profit. The market price is volatile since it is determined by bidding between buyer and seller. The pumped storage power plant, one of the storage facilities is promising against such volatile market price since it can produce a profit by purchasing electricity with lower-price and selling it with higher-price. This paper discusses the optimal operation of the pumped storage power plants considering bidding strategy to an uncertain spot market. The volatilities in market price and demand are represented by the Vasicek model in our estimation. This paper also discusses the allocation of operational reserve to the pumped storage power plant.

Introducing taxes, subsidies or both: the effects of various food pricing strategies in a web-based supermarket randomized trial.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Boer, Michiel R; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2012-05-01

Fiscal policies may form a solution in improving dietary intake. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of varying taxing and subsiding schemes to stimulate healthier food purchases. A randomized controlled trial with three levels of price reduction on healthy foods (no; 25%; 50%)×three levels of price increase on unhealthy foods (5%; 10%; 25%) factorial design was used. 150 participants were randomized into one of nine conditions and were asked to purchase groceries at a web-based supermarket. Data were collected in the Netherlands in January-February 2010 and analyzed using analysis of covariance. Subjects receiving 50% discount purchased significantly more healthy foods than subjects receiving no (mean difference=6.62 items, p<0.01) or 25% discount (mean difference=4.87 items, p<0.05). Moreover, these subjects purchased more vegetables (mean difference=821 g;p<0.05 compared to no discount). However, participants with the highest discount also purchased significantly more calories. No significant effects of the price increases on unhealthy foods were found. Price decreases are effective in stimulating healthy food purchases, but the proportion of healthy foods remains unaffected. Price increases up to 25% on unhealthier products do not significantly affect food purchases. Future studies are important to validate these results in real supermarkets and across different countries. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Trimethoprim on Serum Folate Levels in Humans: A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Meidahl Petersen, Kasper; Eplov, Kasper; Kjær Nielsen, Torben; Jimenez-Solem, Espen; Petersen, Morten; Broedbaek, Kasper; Daugaard Popik, Sara; Kallehave Hansen, Lina; Enghusen Poulsen, Henrik; Trærup Andersen, Jon

2016-01-01

Trimethoprim antagonize the actions of folate by inhibition of dihydrofolate reductase. This could diminish serum folate levels in humans and causes folate deficiency in some patients. We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, to investigate the effect of trimethoprim on serum folate levels in healthy participants after a 7-day trial period. Thirty young, healthy males were randomly allocated to receive trimethoprim, 200 mg twice daily, and 30 were randomly allocated to placebo. Before trial initiation, participant numbers were given randomly generated treatment allocations within sealed opaque envelopes. Participants and all staff were kept blinded to treatment allocations during the trial. Serum folate was measured at baseline and at end of trial. In the 58 participants analyzed (30 in the trimethoprim group and 28 in the placebo group), 8 had folate deficiency at baseline. Within the trimethoprim group, serum folate was significantly decreased (P = 0.018) after the trial. We found a mean decrease in serum folate among trimethoprim exposed of 1.95 nmol/L, compared with a 0.21 nmol/L mean increase in the placebo group (P = 0.040). The proportion of folate-deficient participants increased significantly within the trimethoprim group (P = 0.034). No serious adverse events were observed. In conclusion, we found that a daily dose of 400 mg trimethoprim for 7 days significantly lowered serum folate levels in healthy study participants.

Quantifying economic fluctuations by adapting methods of statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plerou, Vasiliki

2001-09-01

The first focus of this thesis is the investigation of cross-correlations between the price fluctuations of different stocks using the conceptual framework of random matrix theory (RMT), developed in physics to describe the statistical properties of energy-level spectra of complex nuclei. RMT makes predictions for the statistical properties of matrices that are universal, i.e., do not depend on the interactions between the elements comprising the system. In physical systems, deviations from the predictions of RMT provide clues regarding the mechanisms controlling the dynamics of a given system so this framework is of potential value if applied to economic systems. This thesis compares the statistics of cross-correlation matrix C-whose elements Cij are the correlation coefficients of price fluctuations of stock i and j-against the ``null hypothesis'' of a random matrix having the same symmetry properties. It is shown that comparison of the eigenvalue statistics of C with RMT results can be used to distinguish random and non-random parts of C. The non-random part of C which deviates from RMT results, provides information regarding genuine cross-correlations between stocks. The interpretations and potential practical utility of these deviations are also investigated. The second focus is the characterization of the dynamics of stock price fluctuations. The statistical properties of the changes G Δt in price over a time interval Δ t are quantified and the statistical relation between G Δt and the trading activity-measured by the number of transactions NΔ t in the interval Δt is investigated. The statistical properties of the volatility, i.e., the time dependent standard deviation of price fluctuations, is related to two microscopic quantities: NΔt and the variance W2Dt of the price changes for all transactions in the interval Δ t. In addition, the statistical relationship between G Δt and the number of shares QΔt traded in Δ t is investigated.

Spatial and intertemporal arbitrage in the California natural gas transportation and storage network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uria Martinez, Rocio

Intertemporal and spatial price differentials should provide the necessary signals to allocate a commodity efficiently inside a network. This dissertation investigates the extent to which decisions in the California natural gas transportation and storage system are taken with an eye on arbitrage opportunities. Daily data about flows into and out of storage facilities in California over 2002-2006 and daily spreads on the NYMEX futures market are used to investigate whether the injection profile is consistent with the "supply-of-storage" curve first observed by Working for wheat. Spatial price differentials between California and producing regions fluctuate throughout the year, even though spot prices at trading hubs across North America are highly correlated. In an analysis of "residual supply", gas volumes directed to California are examined for the influence of those fluctuations in locational differentials. Daily storage decisions in California do seem to be influenced by a daily price signal that combines the intertemporal spread and the locational basis between California and the Henry Hub, in addition to strong seasonal and weekly cycles. The timing and magnitude of the response differs across storage facilities depending on the regulatory requirements they face and the type of customers they serve. In contrast, deviations in spatial price differentials from the levels dictated by relative seasonality in California versus competing regions do not trigger significant reallocations of flows into California. Available data for estimation of both the supply-of-storage and residual-supply curves aggregate the behavior of many individuals whose motivations and attentiveness to prices vary. The resulting inventory and flow profiles differ from those that a social planner would choose to minimize operating costs throughout the network. Such optimal allocation is deduced from a quadratic programming model, calibrated to 2004-2005, that acknowledges relative seasonality in demand, trade-offs between transportation and storage costs, infrastructure configuration and regulatory requirements. A comparison of the simulated equilibrium with observed behavior identifies where the arbitrage opportunities lie. Moreover, scenario analysis of such as a LNG terminal or additional storage capacity in California reveals the considerable indirect network effects brought about by changes at any node or arc.

Correlation analysis of the Korean stock market: Revisited to consider the influence of foreign exchange rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

2018-02-01

We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.

RARtool: A MATLAB Software Package for Designing Response-Adaptive Randomized Clinical Trials with Time-to-Event Outcomes.

PubMed

Ryeznik, Yevgen; Sverdlov, Oleksandr; Wong, Weng Kee

2015-08-01

Response-adaptive randomization designs are becoming increasingly popular in clinical trial practice. In this paper, we present RARtool , a user interface software developed in MATLAB for designing response-adaptive randomized comparative clinical trials with censored time-to-event outcomes. The RARtool software can compute different types of optimal treatment allocation designs, and it can simulate response-adaptive randomization procedures targeting selected optimal allocations. Through simulations, an investigator can assess design characteristics under a variety of experimental scenarios and select the best procedure for practical implementation. We illustrate the utility of our RARtool software by redesigning a survival trial from the literature.

Study on Incentives for Glaucoma Medication Adherence (SIGMA): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial to increase glaucoma medication adherence using value pricing.

PubMed

Bilger, Marcel; Wong, Tina T; Howard, Kaye L; Lee, Jia Yi; Toh, Ai Nee; John, Geraldine; Lamoureux, Ecosse L; Finkelstein, Eric A

2016-07-15

Many glaucoma patients do not adhere to their medication regimens because they fail to internalize the (health) costs of non-adherence, which may not occur until years or decades later. Behavioural economic theory suggests that adherence rates can be improved by offering patients a near-term benefit. Our proposed strategy is to offer adherence-contingent rebates on medication and check-up costs. This form of value pricing (VP) ensures that rebates are granted only to those most likely to benefit. Moreover, by leveraging loss aversion, rebates are expected to generate a stronger behavioural response than equivalent financial rewards. The main objective of the Study on Incentives for Glaucoma Medication Adherence (SIGMA) is to test the VP approach relative to usual care (UC) in improving medication adherence. SIGMA is a randomized, controlled, open-label, single-centre superiority trial with two parallel arms. A total of 100 non-adherent (Morisky Medication Adherence Scale ≤6) glaucoma patients from the Singapore National Eye Centre are block-randomized (blocking factor: single versus multiple medications users) into the VP and UC arms in a 1:1 ratio. The treatment received by VP patients will be strictly identical to that received by UC patients, with the only exception being that VP patients can earn either a 50 % or 25 % rebate on their glaucoma-related healthcare costs conditional on being adherent on at least 90 % or 75 % of days as measured by a medication event monitoring system. Masking the arm allocation will be precluded by the behavioural nature of the intervention but blocking size will not be disclosed to protect concealment. The primary outcome is the mean change from baseline in percentage of adherent days at month 6. A day will be counted as adherent when the patients take all their medication(s) within the appropriate dosing windows. This trial will provide evidence on whether adherence-contingent rebates can improve medication adherence among non-adherent glaucoma patients, and more generally whether this approach represents a promising strategy to cost-effectively improve chronic disease management. NCT02271269 . Registered on 19 October 2014.

Discounts on fruit and vegetables combined with a space management intervention increased sales in supermarkets.

PubMed

Toft, U; Winkler, L L; Mikkelsen, B E; Bloch, P; Glümer, C

2017-04-01

To examine the effects of two interventions on consumer purchases of fruits and vegetables (F&V) on the Danish island of Bornholm: a 20% discount on F&V combined with improved shelf-space allocation, and improved shelf-space allocation alone. A space management intervention to promote F&V sales was performed in two large discount supermarkets on Bornholm in Denmark for 3 months (September-November 2012). In addition, a 20% discount on F&V was introduced for 3 months in one of the supermarkets ('space + price'). The effect was evaluated using sales data from the two intervention supermarkets and three control supermarkets from the same supermarket chain but in Odsherred, Denmark (control area). Both the effect on sales of fresh F&V and potential unhealthy substitution effects were evaluated using multi-level regression analyses. During the price intervention period, the index number for sales of fresh vegetables increased by 22.2% (P=0.001) in the 'space + price' intervention supermarket compared with the control supermarkets. Furthermore, the index number for the sale of organic fresh fruit and vegetables increased by 12.1% (P=0.04) and the sale of the total amount of fruit and vegetables (fresh, frozen, dried and canned) increased by 15.3% (P=0.01) compared with the control supermarkets. In the 'space only' intervention supermarket no significant increase in the sale of fruit and vegetables was found. No unhealthy substitution effects were found. In conclusion, a 20% price reduction on F&V significantly increased sales of F&V. The effect was most pronounced on vegetables and no negative/unhealthy substitution effects were found.

A New View of Institutions, Human Capital, and Market Standardisation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Jacob P.; Loomis, Steven R.

2007-01-01

This paper argues that the rule-making function of institutions introduces an information distortion into markets--economic, political, and cultural--that changes the rational pattern of resource allocation. As markets expand, this distortion raises the price of individual talent and skill development in production. It leads to a public-private…

77 FR 64170 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-18

...] simultaneously trade different asset classes within a single strategy. Phlx also notes that cash equities and... asset classes, Phlx is introducing a pricing incentive to encourage market participants that are active... equitable allocation of reasonable dues, fees and other charges among members and issuers and other persons...

76 FR 2172 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGA Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-12

...),\\5\\ in particular, as it is designed to provide for the equitable allocation of reasonable dues, fees... reflects a competitive pricing structure designed to incent market participants to direct their order flow... one method. The Commission will post all comments on the Commission's Internet website ( http://www...

76 FR 44297 - Fisheries of the Exclusive Economic Zone Off Alaska; Allocating Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-25

... Merrill, Assistant Regional Administrator, Sustainable Fisheries Division, Alaska Region, NMFS, Attn... holders must meet. These contracts include requirements to hire: (1) A market analyst, who provides a pre-season market report of likely market conditions for each crab fishery to aid in price negotiations and...

43 CFR 426.6 - Leasing and full-cost pricing.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) deficits funded. O&M deficits funded are the annual O&M costs including project-use pumping power allocated... payments due the United States. (6) In determining full-cost charges, the following factors will be... of the contract, whichever is later, to the anticipated date of project repayment; and (D) In cases...

76 FR 41544 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; EDGX Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-14

... proposed rule changes reflect a competitive pricing structure designed to incent market participants to... Exchange notes that it operates in a highly competitive market in which market participants can readily... competitive with those charged by other venues and therefore continue to be reasonable and equitably allocated...

23 CFR 636.115 - May I meet with industry to gather information concerning the appropriate risk allocation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... information are as follows: (1) Industry or small business conferences; (2) Public hearings; (3) Market research; (4) One-on-one meetings with potential offerors (any meetings that are substantially involved... obtain price, delivery, other market information, or capabilities for planning purposes. Responses to...

23 CFR 636.115 - May I meet with industry to gather information concerning the appropriate risk allocation...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... information are as follows: (1) Industry or small business conferences; (2) Public hearings; (3) Market research; (4) One-on-one meetings with potential offerors (any meetings that are substantially involved... obtain price, delivery, other market information, or capabilities for planning purposes. Responses to...

Non-Market Valuation

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes

2003-01-01

In addition to commodities such as timber, forest ecosystems provide an array of goods and services that are not priced in markets but maintain, to a large degree, the characteristics of public goods (non-rivalry and non-excludability). Markets do not recognize scarcity of non-market resources and cannot be relied upon to allocate these resources to their highest and...

26 CFR 1.460-0 - Outline of regulations under section 460.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... total allocable contract costs. (iv) Pre-contracting-year costs. (v) Post-completion-year costs. (6) 10... improvements. (iv) Mixed use costs. (3) $10,000,000 gross receipts test. (i) In general. (ii) Single employer...) Computations. (3) Post-completion-year income. (4) Total contract price. (i) In general. (A) Definition. (B...

Energy: the impact of availability and prices on future business prospects. [Collection of 12 papers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peelle, D.M.

1975-01-01

This collection includes twelve papers, all but one being presented at an August 1974 seminar. These are entitled Energy: Policy, Availability and Prices, Harry R. Hall; Public Policy and the Energy Crisis, Edward J. Mitchell; How Federal Price and Allocation Controls on Oil Have Worsened the Energy Crisis, William A. Johnson; Energy Availability in the Near and Long-Range Future, R.R. Wright; Consideration of Natural Gas Supply for Michigan, Donald L. Katz; The Outlook for Coal, Robert V. Price; Electricity: Future Availability and Cost, G. L. Heins; Solar Energy Research and Development, F. Tom Sparrow; Energy in the Automobile, Doron K.more » Samples; Energy and Future Business Prospects: Implication for Feedstocks-Using Industries, William H. Shaker; Energy Conservation in the Processing Industries, Alfred F. Waterland; and Energy Management: Guidelines and Case Histories, G. N. Tiberio. Letter from OPEC is a dissertation by Joseph Kraft on a visit to OPEC headquarters in Vienna. (MCW)« less

[The use of benchmarking to manage the healthcare supply chain: effects on purchasing cost and quality].

PubMed

Naranjo-Gil, David; Ruiz-Muñoz, David

2015-01-01

Healthcare supply expenses consume a large part of the financial resources allocated to public health. The aim of this study was to analyze the use of a benchmarking process in the management of hospital purchases, as well as its effect on product cost reduction and quality improvement. Data were collected through a survey conducted in 29 primary healthcare districts from 2010 to 2011, and through a healthcare database on the prices, quality, delivery time and supplier characteristics of 5373 products. The use of benchmarking processes reduced or eliminated products with a low quality and high price. These processes increased the quality of products by 10.57% and reduced their purchase price by 28.97%. The use of benchmarking by healthcare centers can reduce expenditure and allow more efficient management of the healthcare supply chain. It also facilitated the acquisition of products at lower prices and higher quality. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Test Pricing and Reimbursement in Genomic Medicine: Towards a General Strategy.

PubMed

Vozikis, Athanassios; Cooper, David N; Mitropoulou, Christina; Kambouris, Manousos E; Brand, Angela; Dolzan, Vita; Fortina, Paolo; Innocenti, Federico; Lee, Ming Ta Michael; Leyens, Lada; Macek, Milan; Al-Mulla, Fahd; Prainsack, Barbara; Squassina, Alessio; Taruscio, Domenica; van Schaik, Ron H; Vayena, Effy; Williams, Marc S; Patrinos, George P

2016-01-01

This paper aims to provide an overview of the rationale and basic principles guiding the governance of genomic testing services, to clarify their objectives, and allocate and define responsibilities among stakeholders in a health-care system, with a special focus on the EU countries. Particular attention is paid to issues pertaining to pricing and reimbursement policies, the availability of essential genomic tests which differs between various countries owing to differences in disease prevalence and public health relevance, the prescribing and use of genomic testing services according to existing or new guidelines, budgetary and fiscal control, the balance between price and access to innovative testing, monitoring and evaluation for cost-effectiveness and safety, and the development of research capacity. We conclude that addressing the specific items put forward in this article will help to create a robust policy in relation to pricing and reimbursement in genomic medicine. This will contribute to an effective and sustainable health-care system and will prove beneficial to the economy at large. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cancer care, money, and the value of life: whose justice? Which rationality?

PubMed

Sulmasy, Daniel P

2007-01-10

Cost-containment in oncology is a moral issue. While economists use the word "rationing" to describe all limitations on resource utilization that result from human choice, the ordinary language distinction between allocation and rationing is morally meaningful and can help oncologists to determine their proper moral role in cost-containment. It is argued that oncologists should not be required to ration at the bedside, nor should they be given financial incentives to practice frugally, nor should they be subjected to a variety of bureaucratic mechanisms to control costs indirectly. In addition, it is argued that the fact that treatments have a price does not logically imply that patients have a price. Cost-effectiveness analysis is often suggested as a means of deciding how best to allocate resources, but some of its many ethical limitations are discussed. The alternative is an open, public, participatory process about how to ration care, abandoning the formulaic pretenses of cost-effectiveness analysis, but with a commitment to reason, good will, and common sense. Oncologists would then be free to advocate for their patients within the constraints imposed by this public process.

Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

2012-10-01

The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

Temporal evolution of financial-market correlations.

PubMed

Fenn, Daniel J; Porter, Mason A; Williams, Stacy; McDonald, Mark; Johnson, Neil F; Jones, Nick S

2011-08-01

We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrelated random price changes. We then identify the principal components of these correlation matrices and demonstrate that a small number of components accounts for a large proportion of the variability of the markets that we consider. We characterize the time-evolving relationships between the different assets by investigating the correlations between the asset price time series and principal components. Using this approach, we uncover notable changes that occurred in financial markets and identify the assets that were significantly affected by these changes. We show in particular that there was an increase in the strength of the relationships between several different markets following the 2007-2008 credit and liquidity crisis.

Nonlinear complexity behaviors of agent-based 3D Potts financial dynamics with random environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yani; Wang, Jun

2018-02-01

A new microscopic 3D Potts interaction financial price model is established in this work, to investigate the nonlinear complexity behaviors of stock markets. 3D Potts model, which extends the 2D Potts model to three-dimensional, is a cubic lattice model to explain the interaction behavior among the agents. In order to explore the complexity of real financial markets and the 3D Potts financial model, a new random coarse-grained Lempel-Ziv complexity is proposed to certain series, such as the price returns, the price volatilities, and the random time d-returns. Then the composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) method is applied to the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and the corresponding shuffled data to study the complexity behaviors. The empirical results indicate that the 3D financial model is feasible.

Temporal evolution of financial-market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fenn, Daniel J.; Porter, Mason A.; Williams, Stacy; McDonald, Mark; Johnson, Neil F.; Jones, Nick S.

2011-08-01

We investigate financial market correlations using random matrix theory and principal component analysis. We use random matrix theory to demonstrate that correlation matrices of asset price changes contain structure that is incompatible with uncorrelated random price changes. We then identify the principal components of these correlation matrices and demonstrate that a small number of components accounts for a large proportion of the variability of the markets that we consider. We characterize the time-evolving relationships between the different assets by investigating the correlations between the asset price time series and principal components. Using this approach, we uncover notable changes that occurred in financial markets and identify the assets that were significantly affected by these changes. We show in particular that there was an increase in the strength of the relationships between several different markets following the 2007-2008 credit and liquidity crisis.

Assessment of Registration Information on Methodological Design of Acupuncture RCTs: A Review of 453 Registration Records Retrieved from WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform

PubMed Central

Gu, Jing; Wang, Qi; Wang, Xiaogang; Li, Hailong; Gu, Mei; Ming, Haixia; Dong, Xiaoli; Yang, Kehu; Wu, Hongyan

2014-01-01

Background. This review provides the first methodological information assessment of protocol of acupuncture RCTs registered in WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). Methods. All records of acupuncture RCTs registered in the ICTRP have been collected. The methodological design assessment involved whether the randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding were adequate or not based on the information of registration records (protocols of acupuncture RCTs). Results. A total of 453 records, found in 11 registries, were examined. Methodological details were insufficient in registration records; there were 76.4%, 89.0%, and 21.4% records that did not provide information on randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding respectively. The proportions of adequate randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding were only 107 (23.6%), 48 (10.6%), and 210 (46.4%), respectively. The methodological design improved year by year, especially after 2007. Additionally, methodology of RCTs with ethics approval was clearly superior to those without ethics approval and different among registries. Conclusions. The overall methodological design based on registration records of acupuncture RCTs is not very well but improved year by year. The insufficient information on randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding maybe due to the relevant description is not taken seriously in acupuncture RCTs' registration. PMID:24688591

Assessment of Registration Information on Methodological Design of Acupuncture RCTs: A Review of 453 Registration Records Retrieved from WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform.

PubMed

Gu, Jing; Wang, Qi; Wang, Xiaogang; Li, Hailong; Gu, Mei; Ming, Haixia; Dong, Xiaoli; Yang, Kehu; Wu, Hongyan

2014-01-01

Background. This review provides the first methodological information assessment of protocol of acupuncture RCTs registered in WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP). Methods. All records of acupuncture RCTs registered in the ICTRP have been collected. The methodological design assessment involved whether the randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding were adequate or not based on the information of registration records (protocols of acupuncture RCTs). Results. A total of 453 records, found in 11 registries, were examined. Methodological details were insufficient in registration records; there were 76.4%, 89.0%, and 21.4% records that did not provide information on randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding respectively. The proportions of adequate randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding were only 107 (23.6%), 48 (10.6%), and 210 (46.4%), respectively. The methodological design improved year by year, especially after 2007. Additionally, methodology of RCTs with ethics approval was clearly superior to those without ethics approval and different among registries. Conclusions. The overall methodological design based on registration records of acupuncture RCTs is not very well but improved year by year. The insufficient information on randomization methods, allocation concealment, and blinding maybe due to the relevant description is not taken seriously in acupuncture RCTs' registration.

Pricing and availability of some essential child specific medicines in Odisha

PubMed Central

Swain, Trupti Rekha; Rath, Bandana; Dehury, Suhasini; Tarai, Anjali; Das, Priti; Samal, Rajashree; Samal, Satyajit; Nayak, Harshavardhan

2015-01-01

Objectives: Continuous availability of affordable medicines in appropriate formulations is essential to reduce morbidity and mortality in children. Odisha an eastern Indian state records very high mortality of children. The study aims at documenting the availability and prices paid for purchasing essential child-specific medicines. Materials and Methods: The survey of 34 essential medicines was conducted in six randomly selected districts of Odisha. Data were collected from medicine outlets of the public, private, and other sector (Nongovernmental Organization [NGO]/mission sectors) of six randomly selected districts, using WHO/Health Action International medicine price collection methodology. For each medicine surveyed, data were collected on the highest and lowest-priced formulations available in each facility. Results: Both public sector and other sector health facilities procure only one brand of medicines, mean percentage availability of medicines being 17% and 21.8%, respectively. In the private sector, the mean percentage availability of the high and lowest-priced medicines for a particular drug product was 10.8% and 38.5%, respectively. The public sector procurement price is 48% lower than international reference prices. In the private sector, high-priced, and low-priced products are sold at 1.83 and 1.46 times the international reference price, respectively. Substantial price variation was observed for some medicines across individual outlets. Medicines were found to cost 2.08 times their international reference price in NGO/mission sector facilities. Conclusions: The availability of children's medicines in public sector facilities of Odisha state is poor. Medicines for children cost relatively high in both private and NGO sectors compared to the international reference price. The availability medicines should be improved on an urgent basis to improve access of medicines for children of Odisha. PMID:26600637

Pricing and availability of some essential child specific medicines in Odisha.

PubMed

Swain, Trupti Rekha; Rath, Bandana; Dehury, Suhasini; Tarai, Anjali; Das, Priti; Samal, Rajashree; Samal, Satyajit; Nayak, Harshavardhan

2015-01-01

Continuous availability of affordable medicines in appropriate formulations is essential to reduce morbidity and mortality in children. Odisha an eastern Indian state records very high mortality of children. The study aims at documenting the availability and prices paid for purchasing essential child-specific medicines. The survey of 34 essential medicines was conducted in six randomly selected districts of Odisha. Data were collected from medicine outlets of the public, private, and other sector (Nongovernmental Organization [NGO]/mission sectors) of six randomly selected districts, using WHO/Health Action International medicine price collection methodology. For each medicine surveyed, data were collected on the highest and lowest-priced formulations available in each facility. Both public sector and other sector health facilities procure only one brand of medicines, mean percentage availability of medicines being 17% and 21.8%, respectively. In the private sector, the mean percentage availability of the high and lowest-priced medicines for a particular drug product was 10.8% and 38.5%, respectively. The public sector procurement price is 48% lower than international reference prices. In the private sector, high-priced, and low-priced products are sold at 1.83 and 1.46 times the international reference price, respectively. Substantial price variation was observed for some medicines across individual outlets. Medicines were found to cost 2.08 times their international reference price in NGO/mission sector facilities. The availability of children's medicines in public sector facilities of Odisha state is poor. Medicines for children cost relatively high in both private and NGO sectors compared to the international reference price. The availability medicines should be improved on an urgent basis to improve access of medicines for children of Odisha.

Restructuring the natural gas industry: Order No. 436 and other regulatory initiatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griggs, J.W.

1986-01-01

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order No. 436 is the latest in a series of major regulatory initiatives that have impacted gas pricing, pipeline contracting provisions, spot market sales, and transportation. The policy followed by FERC reflects a faith in the free market to efficiently allocate resource at reasonable cost to consumers. In responding to deregulation mandates while retaining regulation of the price of old gas and of interstate transportation and sales for resale, FERC is unbundling gas costs from the fixed costs of providing service in hopes of improving price signals. It is also pushing pipelines to provide openmore » access to inject competition. The long-term commitments needed by producers may be incompatible with the oscillations caused by market restructuring, but there is a possibility that the new approach will work.« less

Effects of a price increase on purchases of sugar sweetened beverages. Results from a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma Elzeline; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M

2014-07-01

Sugar sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes are receiving increased political interest. However, there have been no experimental studies of the effects of price increases on SSBs or the effects on close substitutes such as diet drinks, alcohol or sugary snacks. Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the effects of a price increase on SSBs on beverage and snack purchases using a randomized controlled design within a three-dimensional web-based supermarket. The trial contained two conditions: experimental condition with a 19% tax on SSBs (to reflect an increase in Dutch value added tax from 6% to 19%); and a control condition with regular prices. N = 102 participants were randomized and purchased groceries on a single occasion at a three-dimensional Virtual Supermarket. Data were analysed using independent t-tests and regression analysis. Results showed that participants in the price increase condition purchased significantly less SSBs than the control group (B = -.90; 95% CI = -1.70 to -.10 L per household per week). There were no significant effects on purchases in other beverage or snack food categories. This means that the higher VAT rate was effective in reducing SSB purchases and had no negative side-effects. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Price sensitive demand with random sales price - a newsboy problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankar Sana, Shib

2012-03-01

Up to now, many newsboy problems have been considered in the stochastic inventory literature. Some assume that stochastic demand is independent of selling price (p) and others consider the demand as a function of stochastic shock factor and deterministic sales price. This article introduces a price-dependent demand with stochastic selling price into the classical Newsboy problem. The proposed model analyses the expected average profit for a general distribution function of p and obtains an optimal order size. Finally, the model is discussed for various appropriate distribution functions of p and illustrated with numerical examples.

Reputation, Princing and the E-Science Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandasivam, Arun; Neumann, Dirk

One of the fundamental aspects for an efficient Grid usage is the optimization of resource allocation among the participants. However, this has not yet materialized. Each user is a self-interested participant trying to maximize his utility whereas the utility is not only determined by the fastest completion time, but on the prices as well. Future revenues are influenced by users' reputation. Reputation mechanisms help to build trust between loosely coupled and geographically distributed participants. Providers need an incentive to reduce selfish cancellation of jobs and privilege own jobs. In this chapter we present first an offline scheduling mechanism with a fixed price. Jobs are collected by a broker and scheduled to machines. The goal of the broker is to balance the load and to maximize the revenue in the network. Consumers can submit their jobs according to their preferences, but taking the incentives of the broker into account. This mechanism does not consider reputation. In a second step a reputation-based pricing mechanism for a simple, but fair pricing of resources is analyzed. In e-Science researchers do not appreciate idiosyncratic pricing strategies and policies. Their interest lies in doing research in an efficient manner. Consequently, in our mechanism the price is tightly coupled to the reputation of a site to guarantee fairness of pricing and facilitate price determination. Furthermore, the price is not the only parameter as completion time plays an important role, when deadlines have to be met. We provide a flexible utility and decision model for every participant and analyze the outcome of our reputation-based pricing system via simulation.

Effect of price and information on the food choices of women university students in Saudi Arabia: An experimental study.

PubMed

Halimic, Aida; Gage, Heather; Raats, Monique; Williams, Peter

2018-04-01

To explore the impact of price manipulation and healthy eating information on intended food choices. Health information was provided to a random half of subjects (vs. information on Saudi agriculture). Each subject chose from the same lunch menu, containing two healthy and two unhealthy entrees, deserts and beverages, on five occasions. Reference case prices were 5, 3 and 2 Saudi Arabian Reals (SARs). Prices of healthy and unhealthy items were manipulated up (taxed) and down (subsidized) by 1 SAR in four menu variations (random order); subjects were given a budget enabling full choice within any menu. The number of healthy food choices were compared with different price combinations, and between information groups. Linear regression modelling explored the effect of relative prices of healthy/unhealthy options and information on number of healthy choices controlling for dietary behaviours and hunger levels. University campus, Saudi Arabia, 2013. 99 women students. In the reference case, 49.5% of choices were for healthy items. When the price of healthy items was reduced, 58.5% of selections were healthy; 57.2% when the price of unhealthy items rose. In regression modelling, reducing the price of healthy items and increasing the price of unhealthy items increased the number of healthy choices by 5% and 6% respectively. Students reporting a less healthy usual diet selected significantly fewer healthy items. Providing healthy eating information was not a significant influence. Price manipulation offers potential for altering behaviours to combat rising youth obesity in Saudi Arabia. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The quotient of normal random variables and application to asset price fat tails

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caginalp, Carey; Caginalp, Gunduz

2018-06-01

The quotient of random variables with normal distributions is examined and proven to have power law decay, with density f(x) ≃f0x-2, with the coefficient depending on the means and variances of the numerator and denominator and their correlation. We also obtain the conditional probability densities for each of the four quadrants given by the signs of the numerator and denominator for arbitrary correlation ρ ∈ [ - 1 , 1) . For ρ = - 1 we obtain a particularly simple closed form solution for all x ∈ R. The results are applied to a basic issue in economics and finance, namely the density of relative price changes. Classical finance stipulates a normal distribution of relative price changes, though empirical studies suggest a power law at the tail end. By considering the supply and demand in a basic price change model, we prove that the relative price change has density that decays with an x-2 power law. Various parameter limits are established.

Trends in E & G Expenditure Allocations. Indicators of Recession or Increased Productivity?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Minter, John

1992-01-01

A random sample of 300 financial officers at public and independent 4-year and public 2-year institutions reveal their projected fiscal 1992 year-end expenditures and 1992-93 budget allocations. Summarized in chart form are the findings on changes in growth rates on salary and wage allocations for a variety of institutional functions. (GLR)

Relationship between red wine grade and phenolics. 2. Tannin composition and size.

PubMed

Kassara, Stella; Kennedy, James A

2011-08-10

Commercial red wines ( Vitis vinifera L. cv. Shiraz) produced during the 2009 vintage underwent winemaker assessment for allocation grade soon after production. The wines were then subjected to phenolic analysis to measure wine color (total anthocyanin, SO(2) nonbleachable pigment, and wine color density) and tannins (concentration, composition, and average degree of polymerization). A positive relationship was found between wine phenolic concentration and projected bottle price. Tannin compositional analysis suggested that there was specifically a relationship between wine grade and skin-derived tannins. These results suggest that maximization of skin tannin concentration and/or proportion is related to an increase in projected wine bottle price.

Application of Core Theory to the Airline Industry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raghavan, Sunder

2003-01-01

Competition in the airline industry has been fierce since the industry was deregulated in 1978. The proponents of deregulation believed that more competition would improve efficiency and reduce prices and bring overall benefits to the consumer. In this paper, a case is made based on core theory that under certain demand and cost conditions more competition can actually lead to harmful consequences for industries like the airline industry or cause an empty core problem. Practices like monopolies, cartels, price discrimination, which is considered inefficient allocation of resources in many other industries, can actually be beneficial in the case of the airline industry in bringing about an efficient equilibrium.

Norwegian physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals: a survey.

PubMed

Eriksen, Ida Iren; Melberg, Hans Olav; Bringedal, Berit

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study are to measure physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals, and investigate whether there are differences in knowledge of prices between groups of physicians. This article reports on a survey study of physicians' knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals conducted on a representative sample of Norwegian physicians in the autumn of 2010. The importance of physicians' knowledge of costs derives from their influence on total spending and allocation of limited health-care resources. Physicians are important drivers in the effort to contain costs in health care, but only if they have the knowledge needed to choose the most cost-effective treatment options. A survey was sent to 1543 Norwegian physicians, asking them for price estimates and their opinions on the importance of considering the cost of treatment to society as a decision factor when treating their patients. This article deals with a subsection in which the physicians were asked to estimate the price of five pharmaceuticals: simvastatin, alendronate (Fosamax), infliximab (Remicade), natalizumab (Tysabri) and escitalopram (Cipralex). The response rate was 65%. For all the five pharmaceuticals, more than 50% and as many as 83% gave responses that differed more than 50% from the actual drug price. The price of more expensive pharmaceuticals was underestimated, while the opposite was the case for less expensive medicines. The data show that physicians in general have poor knowledge of the prices of the pharmaceuticals they offer their patients. However, the physicians who frequently deal with a drug have better knowledge of its price than those who do not handle a medication as often. The data also suggest that those physicians who agree that cost of care to society is an important decision factor have better knowledge of drug prices.

Norwegian Physicians’ Knowledge of the Prices of Pharmaceuticals: A Survey

PubMed Central

Eriksen, Ida Iren; Melberg, Hans Olav; Bringedal, Berit

2013-01-01

The objectives of this study are to measure physicians’ knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals, and investigate whether there are differences in knowledge of prices between groups of physicians. This article reports on a survey study of physicians’ knowledge of the prices of pharmaceuticals conducted on a representative sample of Norwegian physicians in the autumn of 2010. The importance of physicians’ knowledge of costs derives from their influence on total spending and allocation of limited health-care resources. Physicians are important drivers in the effort to contain costs in health care, but only if they have the knowledge needed to choose the most cost-effective treatment options. A survey was sent to 1 543 Norwegian physicians, asking them for price estimates and their opinions on the importance of considering the cost of treatment to society as a decision factor when treating their patients. This article deals with a subsection in which the physicians were asked to estimate the price of five pharmaceuticals: simvastatin, alendronate (Fosamax), infliximab (Remicade), natalizumab (Tysabri) and escitalopram (Cipralex). The response rate was 65%. For all the five pharmaceuticals, more than 50% and as many as 83% gave responses that differed more than 50% from the actual drug price. The price of more expensive pharmaceuticals was underestimated, while the opposite was the case for less expensive medicines. The data show that physicians in general have poor knowledge of the prices of the pharmaceuticals they offer their patients. However, the physicians who frequently deal with a drug have better knowledge of its price than those who do not handle a medication as often. The data also suggest that those physicians who agree that cost of care to society is an important decision factor have better knowledge of drug prices. PMID:24040402

The Impact of Input and Output Prices on The Household Economic Behavior of Rice-Livestock Integrated Farming System (Rlifs) and Non Rlifs Farmers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindawati, L.; Kusnadi, N.; Kuntjoro, S. U.; Swastika, D. K. S.

2018-02-01

Integrated farming system is a system that emphasized linkages and synergism of farming units waste utilization. The objective of the study was to analyze the impact of input and output prices on both Rice Livestock Integrated Farming System (RLIFS) and non RLIFS farmers. The study used econometric model in the form of a simultaneous equations system consisted of 36 equations (18 behavior and 18 identity equations). The impact of changes in some variables was obtained through simulation of input and output prices on simultaneous equations. The results showed that the price increasing of the seed, SP-36, urea, medication/vitamins, manure, bran, straw had negative impact on production of the rice, cow, manure, bran, straw and household income. The decrease in the rice and cow production, production input usage, allocation of family labor, rice and cow business income was greater in RLIFS than non RLIFS farmers. The impact of rising rice and cow cattle prices in the two groups of farmers was not too much different because (1) farming waste wasn’t used effectively (2) manure and straw had small proportion of production costs. The increase of input and output price didn’t have impact on production costs and household expenditures on RLIFS.

Microscopic Spin Model for the STOCK Market with Attractor Bubbling on Regular and Small-World Lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krawiecki, A.

A multi-agent spin model for changes of prices in the stock market based on the Ising-like cellular automaton with interactions between traders randomly varying in time is investigated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. The structure of interactions has topology of a small-world network obtained from regular two-dimensional square lattices with various coordination numbers by randomly cutting and rewiring edges. Simulations of the model on regular lattices do not yield time series of logarithmic price returns with statistical properties comparable with the empirical ones. In contrast, in the case of networks with a certain degree of randomness for a wide range of parameters the time series of the logarithmic price returns exhibit intermittent bursting typical of volatility clustering. Also the tails of distributions of returns obey a power scaling law with exponents comparable to those obtained from the empirical data.

Resource Allocation Analysis Brief #1 (PUSD). Strategic School Funding for Results (SSFR)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chambers, Jay G.; Brodziak, Iliana; Levin, Jesse; Cruz, Lisa

2011-01-01

This Analysis Brief shows how per-pupil spending varies with student poverty (as measured by the percent of students eligible for free or reduced price lunch) across elementary, middle, and high schools in Pasadena Unified School District (PUSD). The authors have carried out separate analyses that make use of the California Standardized Account…

Some Theoretical Considerations Influencing Educational Finance in the 1980's.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Atherton, Peter J.

The major problem to be faced in Canada in the next decade is resource allocation. Administrators must make conscious efforts to distinguish between changes in price levels that are the effect of inflationary pressures and increases in costs that are the result of changes in quality or quantity of inputs. A second area extremely important in…

Assessing marginal water values in multipurpose multireservoir systems via stochastic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmant, A.; Pinte, D.; Goor, Q.

2008-12-01

The International Conference on Water and the Environment held in Dublin in 1992 emphasized the need to consider water as an economic good. Since water markets are usually absent or ineffective, the value of water cannot be directly derived from market activities but must rather be assessed through shadow prices. Economists have developed various valuation techniques to determine the economic value of water, especially to handle allocation issues involving environmental water uses. Most of the nonmarket valuation studies reported in the literature focus on long-run policy problems, such as permanent (re)allocations of water, and assume that the water availability is given. When dealing with short-run allocation problems, water managers are facing complex spatial and temporal trade-offs and must therefore be able to track site and time changes in water values across different hydrologic conditions, especially in arid and semiarid areas where the availability of water is a limiting and stochastic factor. This paper presents a stochastic programming approach for assessing the statistical distribution of marginal water values in multipurpose multireservoir systems where hydropower generation and irrigation crop production are the main economic activities depending on water. In the absence of a water market, the Lagrange multipliers correspond to shadow prices, and the marginal water values are the Lagrange multipliers associated with the mass balance equations of the reservoirs. The methodology is illustrated with a cascade of hydroelectric-irrigation reservoirs in the Euphrates river basin in Turkey and Syria.

Effects of house prices on health: New evidence from Australia.

PubMed

Atalay, Kadir; Edwards, Rebecca; Liu, Betty Y J

2017-11-01

Recent house price variation has strongly affected households' housing wealth and debt, yet the non-economic consequences of these changes in housing wealth are still poorly understood. Using a sample of 19,000 individuals from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (HILDA) for 2001-2015, we examine the relationship between house price fluctuations and individual health by exploiting large exogenous changes in house prices in Australia. We find that an increase in local house prices is associated with a positive effect on the physical health of outright owners and a negative effect on the physical and mental health of renters. Improvements in physical health for outright owners can be partially attributed to health-related investments and behaviours such as a reduction in weight, an increase in physical exercise and an increase in time allocated to home production. These findings support the presence of a health-wealth gradient through the wealth mechanism distinct from the effects of local area amenities and macroeconomic conditions. Our findings highlight some of the often-overlooked social impacts - both positive and negative - of fluctuations in the housing market. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

2015-03-01

Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

Optimizing Utilization of Detectors

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

provide a quantifiable process to determine how much time should be allocated to each task sharing the same asset . This optimized expected time... allocation is calculated by numerical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Numerical analysis determines the expectation by involving an integral and...determines the optimum time allocation of the asset by repeatedly running experiments to approximate the expectation of the random variables. This

Evaluation of the procedure 1A component of the 1980 US/Canada wheat and barley exploratory experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chapman, G. M. (Principal Investigator); Carnes, J. G.

1981-01-01

Several techniques which use clusters generated by a new clustering algorithm, CLASSY, are proposed as alternatives to random sampling to obtain greater precision in crop proportion estimation: (1) Proportional Allocation/relative count estimator (PA/RCE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters on the basis of cluster size and a relative count cluster level estimate; (2) Proportional Allocation/Bayes Estimator (PA/BE) uses proportional allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster-level estimate; and (3) Bayes Sequential Allocation/Bayesian Estimator (BSA/BE) uses sequential allocation of dots to clusters and a Bayesian cluster level estimate. Clustering in an effective method in making proportion estimates. It is estimated that, to obtain the same precision with random sampling as obtained by the proportional sampling of 50 dots with an unbiased estimator, samples of 85 or 166 would need to be taken if dot sets with AI labels (integrated procedure) or ground truth labels, respectively were input. Dot reallocation provides dot sets that are unbiased. It is recommended that these proportion estimation techniques are maintained, particularly the PA/BE because it provides the greatest precision.

A Randomized Trial of Displaying Paid Price Information on Imaging Study and Procedure Ordering Rates.

PubMed

Chien, Alyna T; Lehmann, Lisa Soleymani; Hatfield, Laura A; Koplan, Kate E; Petty, Carter R; Sinaiko, Anna D; Rosenthal, Meredith B; Sequist, Thomas D

2017-04-01

Prior studies have demonstrated how price transparency lowers the test-ordering rates of trainees in hospitals, and physician-targeted price transparency efforts have been viewed as a promising cost-controlling strategy. To examine the effect of displaying paid-price information on test-ordering rates for common imaging studies and procedures within an accountable care organization (ACO). Block randomized controlled trial for 1 year. A total of 1205 fully licensed clinicians (728 primary care, 477 specialists). Starting January 2014, clinicians in the Control arm received no price display; those in the intervention arms received Single or Paired Internal/External Median Prices in the test-ordering screen of their electronic health record. Internal prices were the amounts paid by insurers for the ACO's services; external paid prices were the amounts paid by insurers for the same services when delivered by unaffiliated providers. Ordering rates (orders per 100 face-to-face encounters with adult patients): overall, designated to be completed internally within the ACO, considered "inappropriate" (e.g., MRI for simple headache), and thought to be "appropriate" (e.g., screening colonoscopy). We found no significant difference in overall ordering rates across the Control, Single Median Price, or Paired Internal/External Median Prices study arms. For every 100 encounters, clinicians in the Control arm ordered 15.0 (SD 31.1) tests, those in the Single Median Price arm ordered 15.0 (SD 16.2) tests, and those in the Paired Prices arms ordered 15.7 (SD 20.5) tests (one-way ANOVA p-value 0.88). There was no difference in ordering rates for tests designated to be completed internally or considered to be inappropriate or appropriate. Displaying paid-price information did not alter how frequently primary care and specialist clinicians ordered imaging studies and procedures within an ACO. Those with a particular interest in removing waste from the health care system may want to consider a variety of contextual factors that can affect physician-targeted price transparency.

A Home Computer Primer.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Antonia

1982-01-01

Provides general information on currently available microcomputers, computer programs (software), hardware requirements, software sources, costs, computer games, and programing. Includes a list of popular microcomputers, providing price category, model, list price, software (cassette, tape, disk), monitor specifications, amount of random access…

A statistical analysis of product prices in online markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuno, T.; Watanabe, T.

2010-08-01

We empirically investigate fluctuations in product prices in online markets by using a tick-by-tick price data collected from a Japanese price comparison site, and find some similarities and differences between product and asset prices. The average price of a product across e-retailers behaves almost like a random walk, although the probability of price increase/decrease is higher conditional on the multiple events of price increase/decrease. This is quite similar to the property reported by previous studies about asset prices. However, we fail to find a long memory property in the volatility of product price changes. Also, we find that the price change distribution for product prices is close to an exponential distribution, rather than a power law distribution. These two findings are in a sharp contrast with the previous results regarding asset prices. We propose an interpretation that these differences may stem from the absence of speculative activities in product markets; namely, e-retailers seldom repeat buy and sell of a product, unlike traders in asset markets.

Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) Optimal Control Considering Selling Price and Salesman Initiative Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertini, Elis; Anggriani, Nursanti; Mianna, Winda; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Retailers usually offer several types of similar products. A larger number of available stock products in display space will lead consumer to buy more, as well as giving a negative impression on other types of less available products. However, the amount of display space is limited so capacity of carrying the products is limited. Competition among products to increase demand rate is influenced by stock levels available in display space, price and salesmen’s initiative in promoting the products. The Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) to replenish the stock of the product is dependent on the on-hand inventory. Salesman’s initiative also affects maximum profit obtained by the seller. In this paper, Potryagin’s Maximal Principle is used to determine the state of the inventory levels response to control prices of products. Sensitivity analysis of capacity allocation display space is also presented numerically.

Some tradeoffs in ingot shaping and price of solar photovoltaic modules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daud, T.

1982-01-01

Growth of round ingots is cost-effective for sheets but leaves unused space when round cells are packed into a module. This reduces the packing efficiency, which approaches 95% for square cells, to about 78% and reduces the conversion efficiency of the module by the same ratio. Shaping these ingots into squares with regrowth of cut silicon improves the packing factor, but increases growth cost. The cost impact on solar cell modules was determined by considering shaping ingots in stages from full round to complete square. The sequence of module production with relevant price allocation guidelines is outlined. The severe penalties in add-on price due to increasing slice thickness and kerf are presented. Trade-offs between advantages of recycling silicon and shaping costs are developed for different slicing scenarios. It is shown that shaping results in cost saving of up to 21% for a 15 cm dia. ingot.

[Pharmaco-economics: a point of view of the mutualities].

PubMed

Legrand, D; Simon, I

1998-05-01

In Belgium, the mutualities are responsible for their budgets. They are playing an important role in drug pricing and reimbursement procedures. This document aims at explaining our line of arguments for a critical evaluation and the place for a pharmacoeconomic evaluation in the Belgian social security system. The available economic data for each molecule or pathology are essential but insufficient. Economic evaluations could help to reveal the costs and benefits of different uses of medical therapies and could thereby enhance the resources allocation in a health care system. But this science is still in its infancy, and in practice, the methodological quality of this kind of study is often weak. Furthermore it is not easy to transfer those evaluations to the Belgian reimburse systems. The clinical efficacy and the transparency is price setting should remain the two most important criterions to build reimbursement rules in order to ensure right price, rational use of medicine and accessibility for all.

Optimal public rationing and price response.

PubMed

Grassi, Simona; Ma, Ching-To Albert

2011-12-01

We study optimal public health care rationing and private sector price responses. Consumers differ in their wealth and illness severity (defined as treatment cost). Due to a limited budget, some consumers must be rationed. Rationed consumers may purchase from a monopolistic private market. We consider two information regimes. In the first, the public supplier rations consumers according to their wealth information (means testing). In equilibrium, the public supplier must ration both rich and poor consumers. Rationing some poor consumers implements price reduction in the private market. In the second information regime, the public supplier rations consumers according to consumers' wealth and cost information. In equilibrium, consumers are allocated the good if and only if their costs are below a threshold (cost effectiveness). Rationing based on cost results in higher equilibrium consumer surplus than rationing based on wealth. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of warrant price with Black Scholes model and historical volatility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziz, Khairu Azlan Abd; Idris, Mohd Fazril Izhar Mohd; Saian, Rizauddin; Daud, Wan Suhana Wan

2015-05-01

This project discusses about pricing warrant in Malaysia. The Black Scholes model with non-dividend approach and linear interpolation technique was applied in pricing the call warrant. Three call warrants that are listed in Bursa Malaysia were selected randomly from UiTM's datastream. The finding claims that the volatility for each call warrants are different to each other. We have used the historical volatility which will describes the price movement by which an underlying share is expected to fluctuate within a period. The Black Scholes model price that was obtained by the model will be compared with the actual market price. Mispricing the call warrants will contribute to under or over valuation price. Other variables like interest rate, time to maturity date, exercise price and underlying stock price are involves in pricing call warrants as well as measuring the moneyness of call warrants.

The effects of the vegetable prices insurance on the fluctuation of price: Based on Shanghai evidences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Chunhong; Li, Huishang; Hao, Shuai; Zhang, Xuebiao; Yang, Wei

2017-10-01

Taking Shanghai as an example, the influence of the vegetable price insurance on the fluctuation of prices was analyzed in the article. It was found that the sequence of seasonal fluctuations characteristics of leafy vegetable prices was changed by the vegetable cost-price insurance, the period of price fluctuation was elongated from 12-to-18 months to 37 months, and the influence of random factors on the price fluctuations was reduced in some degree. There was still great space for innovation of the vegetable prices insurance system in Shanghai. Some countermeasures would be suggested to develop the insurance system to better to play the role of insurance and promote the market running more smoothly in Shanghai such as prolonging the insurance cycle, improving the price information monitoring mechanism and innovating income insurance products and so on.

Variable step random walks, self-similar distributions, and pricing of options (Invited Paper)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunaratne, Gemunu H.; McCauley, Joseph L.

2005-05-01

A new theory for pricing of options is presented. It is based on the assumption that successive movements depend on the value of the return. The solution to the Fokker-Planck equation is shown to be an asymmetric exponential distribution, similar to those observed in intra-day currency markets. The "volatility smile", used by traders to correct the Black-Scholes pricing is shown to be a heuristic mechanism to implement options pricing formulae derived from our theory.

Economic evaluation of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: The SHELf randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Le, Ha N D; Gold, Lisa; Abbott, Gavin; Crawford, David; McNaughton, Sarah A; Mhurchu, Cliona Ni; Pollard, Christina; Ball, Kylie

2016-06-01

Pricing strategies are a promising approach for promoting healthier dietary choices. However, robust evidence of the cost-effectiveness of pricing manipulations on dietary behaviour is limited. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a 20% price reduction on fruits and vegetables and a combined skills-based behaviour change and price reduction intervention. Cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective was undertaken for the randomized controlled trial Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life (SHELf). Female shoppers in Melbourne, Australia were randomized to: (1) skill-building (n = 160); (2) price reductions (n = 161); (3) combined skill-building and price reduction (n = 161); or (4) control group (n = 161). The intervention was implemented for three months followed by a six month follow-up. Costs were measured in 2012 Australian dollars. Fruit and vegetable purchasing and consumption were measured in grams/week. At three months, compared to control participants, price reduction participants increased vegetable purchases by 233 g/week (95% CI 4 to 462, p = 0.046) and fruit purchases by 364 g/week (95% CI 95 to 633, p = 0.008). Participants in the combined group purchased 280 g/week more fruits (95% CI 27 to 533, p = 0.03) than participants in the control group. Increases were not maintained six-month post intervention. No effect was noticed in the skill-building group. Compared to the control group, the price reduction intervention cost an additional A$2.3 per increased serving of vegetables purchased per week or an additional A$3 per increased serving of fruit purchased per week. The combined intervention cost an additional A$12 per increased serving of fruit purchased per week compared to the control group. A 20% discount on fruits and vegetables was effective in promoting overall fruit and vegetable purchases during the period the discount was active and may be cost-effective. The price discount program gave better value for money than the combined price reduction and skill-building intervention. The SHELf trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials Registration ISRCTN39432901. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical activity for osteoarthritis management: a randomized controlled clinical trial evaluating hydrotherapy or Tai Chi classes.

PubMed

Fransen, Marlene; Nairn, Lillias; Winstanley, Julie; Lam, Paul; Edmonds, John

2007-04-15

To determine whether Tai Chi or hydrotherapy classes for individuals with chronic symptomatic hip or knee osteoarthritis (OA) result in measurable clinical benefits. A randomized controlled trial was conducted among 152 older persons with chronic symptomatic hip or knee OA. Participants were randomly allocated for 12 weeks to hydrotherapy classes (n = 55), Tai Chi classes (n = 56), or a waiting list control group (n = 41). Outcomes were assessed 12 and 24 weeks after randomization and included pain and physical function (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index), general health status (Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 12 Health Survey [SF-12], version 2), psychological well-being, and physical performance (Up and Go test, 50-foot walk time, timed stair climb). At 12 weeks, compared with controls, participants allocated to hydrotherapy classes demonstrated mean improvements (95% confidence interval) of 6.5 (0.4, 12.7) and 10.5 (3.6, 14.5) for pain and physical function scores (range 0-100), respectively, whereas participants allocated to Tai Chi classes demonstrated improvements of 5.2 (-0.8, 11.1) and 9.7 (2.8, 16.7), respectively. Both class allocations achieved significant improvements in the SF-12 physical component summary score, but only allocation to hydrotherapy achieved significant improvements in the physical performance measures. All significant improvements were sustained at 24 weeks. In this almost exclusively white sample, class attendance was higher for hydrotherapy, with 81% attending at least half of the available 24 classes, compared with 61% for Tai Chi. Access to either hydrotherapy or Tai Chi classes can provide large and sustained improvements in physical function for many older, sedentary individuals with chronic hip or knee OA.

Spatial and temporal predictions of agricultural land prices using DSM techniques.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carré, F.; Grandgirard, D.; Diafas, I.; Reuter, H. I.; Julien, V.; Lemercier, B.

2009-04-01

Agricultural land prices highly impacts land accessibility to farmers and by consequence the evolution of agricultural landscapes (crop changes, land conversion to urban infrastructures…) which can turn to irreversible soil degradation. The economic value of agricultural land has been studied spatially, in every one of the 374 French Agricultural Counties, and temporally- from 1995 to 2007, by using data of the SAFER Institute. To this aim, agricultural land price was considered as a digital soil property. The spatial and temporal predictions were done using Digital Soil Mapping techniques combined with tools mainly used for studying temporal financial behaviors. For making both predictions, a first classification of the Agricultural Counties was done for the 1995-2006 periods (2007 was excluded and served as the date of prediction) using a fuzzy k-means clustering. The Agricultural Counties were then aggregated according to land price at the different times. The clustering allows for characterizing the counties by their memberships to each class centroid. The memberships were used for the spatial prediction, whereas the centroids were used for the temporal prediction. For the spatial prediction, from the 374 Agricultural counties, three fourths were used for modeling and one fourth for validating. Random sampling was done by class to ensure that all classes are represented by at least one county in the modeling and validation datasets. The prediction was done for each class by testing the relationships between the memberships and the following factors: (i) soil variable (organic matter from the French BDAT database), (ii) soil covariates (land use classes from CORINE LANDCOVER, bioclimatic zones from the WorldClim Database, landform attributes and landform classes from the SRTM, major roads and hydrographic densities from EUROSTAT, average field sizes estimated by automatic classification of remote sensed images) and (iii) socio-economic factors (population density, gross domestic product and its combination with the population density obtained from EUROSTAT). Linear (Generalized Linear Models) and non-linear models (neural network) were used for building the relationships. For the validation, the relationships were applied to the validation datasets. The RMSE and the coefficient of determination (from a linear regression) between predicted and actual memberships, and the contingency table between the predicted and actual allocation classes were used as validation criteria. The temporal prediction was done on the year 2007 from the centroid land prices characterizing the 1995-2006 period. For each class, the land prices of the time-series 1995-2006 were modeled using an Auto-Regressive Moving Average approach. For the validation, the models were applied to the year 2007. The RMSE between predicted and actual prices is used as the validation criteria. We then discussed the methods and the results of the spatial and temporal validation. Based on this methodology, an extrapolation will be tested on another European country with land price market similar to France (to be determined).

Thresholds for decision-making: informing the cost-effectiveness and affordability of rotavirus vaccines in Malaysia.

PubMed

Loganathan, Tharani; Ng, Chiu-Wan; Lee, Way-Seah; Hutubessy, Raymond C W; Verguet, Stéphane; Jit, Mark

2018-03-01

Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) based on the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) are extensively used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacking locally defined CETs. These thresholds were originally intended for global and regional prioritization, and do not reflect local context or affordability at the national level, so their value for informing resource allocation decisions has been questioned. Using these thresholds, rotavirus vaccines are widely regarded as cost-effective interventions in LMICs. However, high vaccine prices remain a barrier towards vaccine introduction. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, affordability and threshold price of universal rotavirus vaccination at various CETs in Malaysia. Cost-effectiveness of Rotarix and RotaTeq were evaluated using a multi-cohort model. Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund's vaccine prices were used as tender price, while the recommended retail price for Malaysia was used as market price. We estimate threshold prices defined as prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective, at various CETs reflecting economic theories of human capital, societal willingness-to-pay and marginal productivity. A budget impact analysis compared programmatic costs with the healthcare budget. At tender prices, both vaccines were cost-saving. At market prices, cost-effectiveness differed with thresholds used. At market price, using 'CMH thresholds', Rotarix programmes were cost-effective and RotaTeq were not cost-effective from the healthcare provider's perspective, while both vaccines were cost-effective from the societal perspective. Using other CETs, both vaccines were not cost-effective at market price, from the healthcare provider's and societal perspectives. At tender and cost-effective prices, rotavirus vaccination cost ∼1 and 3% of the public health budget, respectively. Using locally defined thresholds, rotavirus vaccination is cost-effective at vaccine prices in line with international tenders, but not at market prices. Thresholds representing marginal productivity are likely to be lower than those reflecting human capital and individual preference measures, and may be useful in determining affordable vaccine prices. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Model of refrigerated display-space allocation for multi agro-perishable products considering markdown policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satiti, D.; Rusdiansyah, A.

2018-04-01

Problems that need more attention in the agri-food supply chain are loss and waste as consequences from improper quality control and excessive inventories. The use of cold storage is still being one of favourite technologies in controlling product quality by majority of retailers. We considerate the temperature of cold storage in determining the inventory and pricing strategies based on identified product quality. This study aims to minimize the agri-food waste, utility of cold storage facilities and maximize retailer’s profit through determining the refrigerated display-space allocation and markdown policy based on identified food shelf life. The proposed model evaluated with several different scenarios to find out the right strategy.

Economic model for QoS guarantee on the Internet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chi; Wei, Jiaolong

2001-09-01

This paper describes a QoS guarantee architecture suited for best-effort environments, based on ideas from microeconomics and non-cooperative game theory. First, an analytic model is developed for the study of the resource allocation in the Internet. Then we show that with a simple pricing mechanism (from network implementation and users' points-of-view), we were able to provide QoS guarantee at per flow level without resource allocation or complicated scheduling mechanisms or maintaining per flow state in the core network. Unlike the previous work on this area, we extend the basic model to support inelastic applications which require minimum bandwidth guarantees for a given time period by introducing derivative market.

Using breed composition, breed differences, selection tools, and new technologies to optimize commercial cattle production and allocation of beef cattle in research programs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Indicators of breed composition such as hair color and ear length often result in increased or decreased prices of young calves marketed into feedlots. Similarly, feedlot research trials are often initiated with blended cattle from multiple sources with little more than coat color used as a blockin...

26 CFR 1.165-3 - Demolition of buildings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... provisions of § 1.167(a)-5, be allocated to the land only. Such basis shall be increased by the net cost of... the land and buildings under § 1.167(a)-5. In any event, the portion of the purchase price which may... and circumstances that exist in some cases and the inferences that might reasonably be drawn from them...

The USDA Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program: A Case Study of Implementation and Consumption in Wisconsin

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jamelske, Eric M.; Bica, Lori A.

2014-01-01

Purpose/Objectives: The US Department of Agriculture created its Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Program (FFVP) to address poor nutrition and rising obesity among children. The FFVP allocates funding for selected elementary schools with at least 50% free/reduced price school meal enrollments to provide free fresh fruit and vegetable snacks to students.…

Optimization-based Approach to Cross-layer Resource Management in Wireless Networked Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

interest from both academia and industry [37], finding applications in un- manned robotic vehicles, automated highways and factories, smart homes and...is stable when the scaler varies slowly. The algorithm is further extended to utilize the slack resource in the network, which leads to the...model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Optimal sampling rate allocation formulation . . . . . 67 Price-based algorithm

Satisfaction, valuation, and views toward allocation of Vermont goose hunting opportunities

Treesearch

Ronald J. Glass; Thomas A. More; Thomas A. More

1992-01-01

A survey of goose hunters on a limited access area, Dead Creek Goose Management Area, in Vermont, was conducted during the fall of 1987. Respondents appeared well adapted to the structured hunting environment and agreed with most of the special rules and regulations. The current lottery system was favored over "first-come, first-served" and market pricing as...

From Hydroclimatic Prediction to Negotiated and Risk Managed Water Allocation and Reservoir Operation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2013-12-01

The availability of long lead climate forecasts that can in turn inform streamflow, agricultural, ecological and municipal/industrial and energy demands provides an opportunity for innovations in water resources management that go beyond the current practices and paradigms. In a practical setting, managers seek to meet registered demands as well as they can. Pricing mechanisms to manage demand are rarely invoked. Drought restrictions and operations are implemented as needed, and pressures from special interest groups are sometimes accommodated through a variety of processes. In the academic literature, there is a notion that demand curves for different sectors could be established and used for "optimal management". However, the few attempts to implement such ideas have invariably failed as elicitation of demand elasticity and socio-political factors is imperfect at best. In this talk, I will focus on what is worth predicting and for whom and how operational risks for the water system can be securitized while providing a platform for priced and negotiated allocation of the resources in the presence of imperfect forecasts. The possibility of a national or regional market for water contracts as part of the framework is explored, and its potential benefits and pitfalls identified.

Essays on empirical analysis of multi-unit auctions: Impacts of financial transmission rights on the restructured electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zang, Hailing

This dissertation uses recently developed empirical methodologies for the study of multi-unit auctions to test the impacts of Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) on the competitiveness of restructured electricity markets. FTRs are a special type of financial option that hedge against volatility in the cost of transporting electricity over the grid. Policy makers seek to use the prices of FTRs as market signals to incentivize efficient investment and utilization of transmission capacity. However, prices will not send the correct signals if market participants strategically use FTRs. This dissertation uses data from the Texas electricity market to test whether the prices of FTRs are efficient to achieve such goals. The auctions studied are multi-unit, uniform-price, sealed-bid auctions. The first part of the dissertation studies the auctions on the spot market of the wholesale electricity industry. I derive structural empirical models to test theoretical predictions as to whether bidders fully internalize the effect of FTRs on profits into their bidding decisions. I find that bidders are learning as to how to optimally bid above marginal cost for their inframarginal capacities. The bidders also learn to bid to include FTRs into their profit maximization problem during the course of the first year. But starting from the second year, they deviated from optimal bidding that includes FTRs in the profit maximization problems. Counterfactual analysis show that the primary effect of FTRs on market outcomes is changing the level of prices rather than production efficiency. Finally, I find that in most months, the current allocations of FTRs are statistically equivalent to the optimal allocations. The second part of the dissertation studies the bidding behavior in the FTR auctions. I find that FTRs' strategic impact on the FTR purchasing behavior is significant for large bidders---firms exercising market power in the FTR auctions. Second, trader forecasts future FTR credit very accurately while large generators' forecasts of future FTR credit tends to be biased upward. Finally, the bid shading patterns are consistent with theoretical predictions and support the existence of common values.

Food prices, household income, and resource allocation: socioeconomic perspectives on their effects on dietary quality and nutritional status.

PubMed

Bouis, Howarth E; Eozenou, Patrick; Rahman, Aminur

2011-03-01

The recent rise in agricultural commodity prices has been dramatic, and food prices are likely to follow an upward trend, at least in the medium-term. Moreover, the recent financial crisis has also lowered incomes and increased food prices. Not only does this reduce dietary quality, but expenditures for health, sanitation, and education will decline, all of which will have a detrimental effect on health and nutrition outcomes. To provide some perspectives on the role of major socioeconomic factors in driving health and nutrition outcomes. We use demand elasticity parameters estimated from household-level survey data to simulate an increase in food prices, which is then mapped into energy and nutrient intakes. Furthermore, we also use household-level data to analyze the implications of unequal intrahousehold distribution of food for the nutritional status of adult women and female children. A 50% increase in food prices results in a decrease in energy intake of 5% to 15% and in a decrease in iron intake of 10% to 30%, depending on the strength of the induced income effect. In a country like the Philippines, this would be equivalent to an increase of 25 percentage points in the proportion of women not meeting their requirements for iron intake. Increasing food prices will make fighting micronutrient malnutrition in developing countries more difficult. In societies where preference is given to males in the intrahousehold distribution of nonstaple foods, this objective will be even more challenging.

The substitutability of cigarettes and food: A behavioral economic comparison in normal weight and overweight or obese smokers.

PubMed

Murphy, Cara M; Owens, Max M; Sweet, Lawrence H; MacKillop, James

2016-12-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking contribute to a multitude of preventable deaths in the United States and eating and smoking behavior may influence each other. The field of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics and permits systematic examination of how commodities interrelate with one another. Using this framework, the current study evaluated the effects of rising food and cigarette prices on consumption to investigate their substitutability and their relationship to BMI and associated variables. Behavioral economics categorizes commodities as substitutable when the consumption of one increases as a function of a price increase in the other. Smokers (N = 86) completed a 2-part hypothetical task in which money was allocated to purchase cigarettes and fast-food-style reinforcers (e.g., hamburgers, ice cream) at various prices. Results indicated that food and cigarettes were not substitutes for one another (cross-price elasticity coefficients < .20). Food purchases were independent of cigarette price, whereas cigarette purchases decreased as food price rose. Cross-price elasticity coefficients were significantly associated with confidence in one's ability to control weight without smoking (rs = -.23 and .29), but not BMI (rs = .04 and .04) or postcessation weight concerns (rs = -.05 and .12). Perceived ability to manage weight without cigarettes may influence who substitutes food for cigarettes when quitting. In addition, given observed decreases in purchases of both commodities as food prices increased, these findings imply that greater taxation of fast-food-style reinforcers could potentially reduce consumption of these foods and also cigarettes among smokers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Dynamics of electricity market correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Ramirez, J.; Escarela-Perez, R.; Espinosa-Perez, G.; Urrea, R.

2009-06-01

Electricity market participants rely on demand and price forecasts to decide their bidding strategies, allocate assets, negotiate bilateral contracts, hedge risks, and plan facility investments. However, forecasting is hampered by the non-linear and stochastic nature of price time series. Diverse modeling strategies, from neural networks to traditional transfer functions, have been explored. These approaches are based on the assumption that price series contain correlations that can be exploited for model-based prediction purposes. While many works have been devoted to the demand and price modeling, a limited number of reports on the nature and dynamics of electricity market correlations are available. This paper uses detrended fluctuation analysis to study correlations in the demand and price time series and takes the Australian market as a case study. The results show the existence of correlations in both demand and prices over three orders of magnitude in time ranging from hours to months. However, the Hurst exponent is not constant over time, and its time evolution was computed over a subsample moving window of 250 observations. The computations, also made for two Canadian markets, show that the correlations present important fluctuations over a seasonal one-year cycle. Interestingly, non-linearities (measured in terms of a multifractality index) and reduced price predictability are found for the June-July periods, while the converse behavior is displayed during the December-January period. In terms of forecasting models, our results suggest that non-linear recursive models should be considered for accurate day-ahead price estimation. On the other hand, linear models seem to suffice for demand forecasting purposes.

The Substitutability of Cigarettes and Food: A Behavioral Economic Comparison in Normal Weight and Overweight or Obese Smokers

PubMed Central

Murphy, Cara M.; Owens, Max M.; Sweet, Lawrence H.; MacKillop, James

2017-01-01

Obesity and cigarette smoking contribute to a multitude of preventable deaths in the US and eating and smoking behavior may influence each other. The field of behavioral economics integrates principles from psychology and economics and permits systematic examination of how commodities interrelate with one another. Using this framework, the current study evaluated the effects of rising food and cigarette prices on consumption to investigate their substitutability and their relationship to BMI and associated variables. Behavioral economics categorizes commodities as substitutable when the consumption of one increases as a function of a price increase in the other. Smokers (N = 86) completed a two-part hypothetical task in which money was allocated to purchase cigarettes and fast food-style reinforcers (e.g., hamburgers, ice cream) at various prices. Results indicated that food and cigarettes were not substitutes for one another (cross-price elasticity coefficients > .20). Food purchases were independent of cigarette price, whereas cigarette purchases decreased as food price rose. Cross-price elasticity coefficients were significantly associated with confidence in one’s ability to control weight without smoking (rs = −.23 and .29), but not BMI (rs = .04 and .04) or post-cessation weight concerns (rs = −.05 and .12). Perceived ability to manage weight without cigarettes may influence who substitutes food for cigarettes when quitting. In addition, given observed decreases in purchases of both commodities as food prices increased, these findings imply that greater taxation of fast food-style reinforcers could potentially reduce consumption of these foods and also cigarettes among smokers. PMID:27736143

Green power: A renewable energy resources marketing plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barr, R.C.

Green power is electricity generated from renewable energy sources such as power generated from the sun, the wind, the heat of the earth, and biomass. Green pricing is the marketing strategy to sell green power to customers who voluntarily pay a premium for it. Green pricing is evolving from the deregulation of the electric industry, the need for clean air, reflected in part as concern over global warming, and technology advances. The goal of the renewable energy marketing plan is to generate enough revenues for a utility to fund power purchase agreements (PPAs) with renewable energy developers or construct itsmore » own renewable facilities. Long-term, fixed price PPAs enable developers to obtain financing to construct new facilities, sometimes taking technological risks which a utility might not take otherwise. The marketing plan is built around different rate premiums for different categories of ratepayers, volunteer customer participation, customer participation recognition, and budget allocations between project costs and power marketing costs. Green prices are higher than those for conventional sources, particularly prices from natural gas fired plants. Natural gas is abundant relative to oil in price per British thermal unit (Btu). Green pricing can help bridge the gap between the current oversupply of gas and the time, not far off, when all petroleum prices will exceed those for renewable energy. The rapid implementation of green pricing is important. New marketing programs will bolster the growing demand for renewable energy evidenced in many national surveys thus decreasing the consumption of power now generated by burning hydrocarbons. This paper sets forth a framework to implement a green power marketing plan for renewable energy developers and utilities working together.« less

Methodological reporting of randomized clinical trials in respiratory research in 2010.

PubMed

Lu, Yi; Yao, Qiuju; Gu, Jie; Shen, Ce

2013-09-01

Although randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the highest level of evidence, they are also subject to bias, due to a lack of adequately reported randomization, and therefore the reporting should be as explicit as possible for readers to determine the significance of the contents. We evaluated the methodological quality of RCTs in respiratory research in high ranking clinical journals, published in 2010. We assessed the methodological quality, including generation of the allocation sequence, allocation concealment, double-blinding, sample-size calculation, intention-to-treat analysis, flow diagrams, number of medical centers involved, diseases, funding sources, types of interventions, trial registration, number of times the papers have been cited, journal impact factor, journal type, and journal endorsement of the CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) rules, in RCTs published in 12 top ranking clinical respiratory journals and 5 top ranking general medical journals. We included 176 trials, of which 93 (53%) reported adequate generation of the allocation sequence, 66 (38%) reported adequate allocation concealment, 79 (45%) were double-blind, 123 (70%) reported adequate sample-size calculation, 88 (50%) reported intention-to-treat analysis, and 122 (69%) included a flow diagram. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that journal impact factor ≥ 5 was the only variable that significantly influenced adequate allocation sequence generation. Trial registration and journal impact factor ≥ 5 significantly influenced adequate allocation concealment. Medical interventions, trial registration, and journal endorsement of the CONSORT statement influenced adequate double-blinding. Publication in one of the general medical journal influenced adequate sample-size calculation. The methodological quality of RCTs in respiratory research needs improvement. Stricter enforcement of the CONSORT statement should enhance the quality of RCTs.

47 CFR 1.2203 - Competitive bidding mechanisms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Random Selection Competitive Bidding Proceedings Broadcast Television Spectrum Reverse Auction § 1.2203... forward auction assigning new spectrum licenses will occur. (2) Reserve price. Reserve prices, either... winning bid. A winning bidder will relinquish spectrum usage rights pursuant to the terms of any winning...

A non-Gaussian option pricing model based on Kaniadakis exponential deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moretto, Enrico; Pasquali, Sara; Trivellato, Barbara

2017-09-01

A way to make financial models effective is by letting them to represent the so called "fat tails", i.e., extreme changes in stock prices that are regarded as almost impossible by the standard Gaussian distribution. In this article, the Kaniadakis deformation of the usual exponential function is used to define a random noise source in the dynamics of price processes capable of capturing such real market phenomena.

Quantifying fluctuations in economic systems by adapting methods of statistical physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. E.; Gopikrishnan, P.; Plerou, V.; Amaral, L. A. N.

2000-12-01

The emerging subfield of econophysics explores the degree to which certain concepts and methods from statistical physics can be appropriately modified and adapted to provide new insights into questions that have been the focus of interest in the economics community. Here we give a brief overview of two examples of research topics that are receiving recent attention. A first topic is the characterization of the dynamics of stock price fluctuations. For example, we investigate the relation between trading activity - measured by the number of transactions NΔ t - and the price change GΔ t for a given stock, over a time interval [t, t+ Δt] . We relate the time-dependent standard deviation of price fluctuations - volatility - to two microscopic quantities: the number of transactions NΔ t in Δ t and the variance WΔ t2 of the price changes for all transactions in Δ t. Our work indicates that while the pronounced tails in the distribution of price fluctuations arise from WΔ t, the long-range correlations found in ∣ GΔ t∣ are largely due to NΔ t. We also investigate the relation between price fluctuations and the number of shares QΔ t traded in Δ t. We find that the distribution of QΔ t is consistent with a stable Lévy distribution, suggesting a Lévy scaling relationship between QΔ t and NΔ t, which would provide one explanation for volume-volatility co-movement. A second topic concerns cross-correlations between the price fluctuations of different stocks. We adapt a conceptual framework, random matrix theory (RMT), first used in physics to interpret statistical properties of nuclear energy spectra. RMT makes predictions for the statistical properties of matrices that are universal, that is, do not depend on the interactions between the elements comprising the system. In physics systems, deviations from the predictions of RMT provide clues regarding the mechanisms controlling the dynamics of a given system, so this framework can be of potential value if applied to economic systems. We discuss a systematic comparison between the statistics of the cross-correlation matrix C - whose elements Cij are the correlation-coefficients between the returns of stock i and j - and that of a random matrix having the same symmetry properties. Our work suggests that RMT can be used to distinguish random and non-random parts of C; the non-random part of C, which deviates from RMT results provides information regarding genuine cross-correlations between stocks.

Assessing the potential of economic instruments for managing drought risk at river basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.; Macian-Sorribes, H.

2015-12-01

Economic instruments work as incentives to adapt individual decisions to collectively agreed goals. Different types of economic instruments have been applied to manage water resources, such as water-related taxes and charges (water pricing, environmental taxes, etc.), subsidies, markets or voluntary agreements. Hydroeconomic models (HEM) provide useful insight on optimal strategies for coping with droughts by simultaneously analysing engineering, hydrology and economics of water resources management. We use HEMs for evaluating the potential of economic instruments on managing drought risk at river basin scale, considering three criteria for assessing drought risk: reliability, resilience and vulnerability. HEMs allow to calculate water scarcity costs as the economic losses due to water deliveries below the target demands, which can be used as a vulnerability descriptor of drought risk. Two generic hydroeconomic DSS tools, SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS ( both programmed in GAMS) have been developed to evaluate water scarcity cost at river basin scale based on simulation and optimization approaches. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water according to the system priorities and operating rules, and evaluate the scarcity costs using economic demand functions. The optimization tool allocates water resources for maximizing net benefits (minimizing total water scarcity plus operating cost of water use). SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), while OPTIGAMS is used to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization. These tools have been applied to the Jucar river system (Spain), highly regulated and with high share of water use for crop irrigation (greater than 80%), where water scarcity, irregular hydrology and groundwater overdraft cause droughts to have significant economic, social and environmental consequences. An econometric model was first used to explain the variation of the production value of irrigated agriculture during droughts, assessing revenue responses to varying crop prices and water availability. Hydroeconomic approaches were then used to show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems.

Dynamic Resource Allocation and Access Class Barring Scheme for Delay-Sensitive Devices in Machine to Machine (M2M) Communications.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Cao, Chao; Wang, Cong

2017-06-15

Supporting simultaneous access of machine-type devices is a critical challenge in machine-to-machine (M2M) communications. In this paper, we propose an optimal scheme to dynamically adjust the Access Class Barring (ACB) factor and the number of random access channel (RACH) resources for clustered machine-to-machine (M2M) communications, in which Delay-Sensitive (DS) devices coexist with Delay-Tolerant (DT) ones. In M2M communications, since delay-sensitive devices share random access resources with delay-tolerant devices, reducing the resources consumed by delay-sensitive devices means that there will be more resources available to delay-tolerant ones. Our goal is to optimize the random access scheme, which can not only satisfy the requirements of delay-sensitive devices, but also take the communication quality of delay-tolerant ones into consideration. We discuss this problem from the perspective of delay-sensitive services by adjusting the resource allocation and ACB scheme for these devices dynamically. Simulation results show that our proposed scheme realizes good performance in satisfying the delay-sensitive services as well as increasing the utilization rate of the random access resources allocated to them.

Patients' ability to treat anaphylaxis using adrenaline autoinjectors: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Umasunthar, T; Procktor, A; Hodes, M; Smith, J G; Gore, C; Cox, H E; Marrs, T; Hanna, H; Phillips, K; Pinto, C; Turner, P J; Warner, J O; Boyle, R J

2015-07-01

Previous work has shown patients commonly misuse adrenaline autoinjectors (AAI). It is unclear whether this is due to inadequate training, or poor device design. We undertook a prospective randomized controlled trial to evaluate ability to administer adrenaline using different AAI devices. We allocated mothers of food-allergic children prescribed an AAI for the first time to Anapen or EpiPen using a computer-generated randomization list, with optimal training according to manufacturer's instructions. After one year, participants were randomly allocated a new device (EpiPen, Anapen, new EpiPen, JEXT or Auvi-Q), without device-specific training. We assessed ability to deliver adrenaline using their AAI in a simulated anaphylaxis scenario six weeks and one year after initial training, and following device switch. Primary outcome was successful adrenaline administration at six weeks, assessed by an independent expert. Secondary outcomes were success at one year, success after switching device, and adverse events. We randomized 158 participants. At six weeks, 30 of 71 (42%) participants allocated to Anapen and 31 of 73 (43%) participants allocated to EpiPen were successful - RR 1.00 (95% CI 0.68-1.46). Success rates at one year were also similar, but digital injection was more common at one year with EpiPen (8/59, 14%) than Anapen (0/51, 0%, P = 0.007). When switched to a new device without specific training, success rates were higher with Auvi-Q (26/28, 93%) than other devices (39/80, 49%; P < 0.001). AAI device design is a major determinant of successful adrenaline administration. Success rates were low with several devices, but were high using the audio-prompt device Auvi-Q. © 2015 The Authors Allergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).

Using Solid State Drives as a Mid-Tier Cache in Enterprise Database OLTP Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khessib, Badriddine M.; Vaid, Kushagra; Sankar, Sriram; Zhang, Chengliang

When originally introduced, flash based solid state drives (SSD) exhibited a very high random read throughput with low sub-millisecond latencies. However, in addition to their steep prices, SSDs suffered from slow write rates and reliability concerns related to cell wear. For these reasons, they were relegated to a niche status in the consumer and personal computer market. Since then, several architectural enhancements have been introduced that led to a substantial increase in random write operations as well as a reasonable improvement in reliability. From a purely performance point of view, these high I/O rates and improved reliability make the SSDs an ideal choice for enterprise On-Line Transaction Processing (OLTP) applications. However, from a price/performance point of view, the case for SSDs may not be clear. Enterprise class SSD Price/GB, continues to be at least 10x higher than conventional magnetic hard disk drives (HDD) despite considerable drop in Flash chip prices.

Random walker in temporally deforming higher-order potential forces observed in a financial crisis.

PubMed

Watanabe, Kota; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2009-11-01

Basic peculiarities of market price fluctuations are known to be well described by a recently developed random-walk model in a temporally deforming quadratic potential force whose center is given by a moving average of past price traces [M. Takayasu, T. Mizuno, and H. Takayasu, Physica A 370, 91 (2006)]. By analyzing high-frequency financial time series of exceptional events, such as bubbles and crashes, we confirm the appearance of higher-order potential force in the markets. We show statistical significance of its existence by applying the information criterion. This time series analysis is expected to be applied widely for detecting a nonstationary symptom in random phenomena.

Design and implementation of ticket price forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yuling; Li, Zhichao

2018-05-01

With the advent of the aviation travel industry, a large number of data mining technologies have been developed to increase profits for airlines in the past two decades. The implementation of the digital optimization strategy leads to price discrimination, for example, similar seats on the same flight are purchased at different prices, depending on the time of purchase, the supplier, and so on. Price fluctuations make the prediction of ticket prices have application value. In this paper, a combination of ARMA algorithm and random forest algorithm is proposed to predict the price of air ticket. The experimental results show that the model is more reliable by comparing the forecasting results with the actual results of each price model. The model is helpful for passengers to buy tickets and to save money. Based on the proposed model, using Python language and SQL Server database, we design and implement the ticket price forecasting system.

Flow of Funds Modeling for Localized Financial Markets: An Application of Spatial Price and Allocation Activity Analysis Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

on modeling the managerial aspects of the firm. The second has been the application to economic theory led by ...individual portfolio optimization problems which were embedded in a larger global optimization problem. In the global problem, portfolios were linked by market ...demand quantities or be given by linear demand relationships. As in~ the source markets , the model

75 FR 502 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-05

... electronic matching algorithm from CBOE Rule 6.45B shall apply to SAL executions (e.g., pro-rata, price-time... entitlement when the pro-rata algorithm is in effect for SAL in selected Hybrid 3.0 classes as part of a pilot... what it would have been under the pre-pilot allocation algorithm. The Exchange will reduce the DPM/LMM...

26 CFR 1.1232-3 - Gain upon sale or exchange of obligations issued at a discount after December 31, 1954.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... under section 451 and the regulations thereunder either: (1) At fixed periodic intervals of one year or... price of an investment unit shall be allocated to the individual elements of the unit on the basis of... standard bond tables. Any reasonable method may be used in selecting an obligation for comparative purposes...

26 CFR 1.1232-3 - Gain upon sale or exchange of obligations issued at a discount after December 31, 1954.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... under section 451 and the regulations thereunder either: (1) At fixed periodic intervals of one year or... price of an investment unit shall be allocated to the individual elements of the unit on the basis of... standard bond tables. Any reasonable method may be used in selecting an obligation for comparative purposes...

26 CFR 1.1232-3 - Gain upon sale or exchange of obligations issued at a discount after December 31, 1954.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... under section 451 and the regulations thereunder either: (1) At fixed periodic intervals of one year or... price of an investment unit shall be allocated to the individual elements of the unit on the basis of... standard bond tables. Any reasonable method may be used in selecting an obligation for comparative purposes...

77 FR 51073 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-23

... liquidity in a transparent market environment. As among equally priced orders on the PSX book, PSX allocates... against the PSX book.\\3\\ No information about the receipt of an incoming marketable order will be provided... unexecuted shares will be cancelled back to the member, routed, or posted to the book as applicable. As is...

Cost accounting for the radiologist.

PubMed

Gentili, Amilcare

2014-05-01

Cost accounting is the branch of managerial accounting that deals with the analysis of the costs of a product or service. This article reviews methods of classifying and allocating costs and relationships among costs, volume, and revenues. Radiology practices need to know the cost of a procedure or service to determine the selling price of a product, bid on contracts, analyze profitability, and facilitate cost control and cost reduction.

Cost accounting and public reimbursement schemes in Spanish hospitals.

PubMed

Sánchez-Martínez, Fernando; Abellán-Perpiñán, José-María; Martínez-Pérez, Jorge-Eduardo; Puig-Junoy, Jaume

2006-08-01

The objective of this paper is to provide a description and analysis of the main costing and pricing (reimbursement) systems employed by hospitals in the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Hospitals cost calculations are mostly based on a full costing approach as opposite to other systems like direct costing or activity based costing. Regional and hospital differences arise on the method used to allocate indirect costs to cost centres and also on the approach used to measure resource consumption. Costs are typically calculated by disaggregating expenditure and allocating it to cost centres, and then to patients and DRGs. Regarding public reimbursement systems, the impression is that unit costs are ignored, except for certain type of high technology processes and treatments.

Perioperative Aspirin for Prevention of Venous Thromboembolism: The PeriOperative ISchemia Evaluation-2 Trial and a Pooled Analysis of the Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Eikelboom, John W; Kearon, Clive; Guyatt, Gordon; Sessler, Daniel I; Yusuf, Salim; Cook, Deborah; Douketis, James; Patel, Ameen; Kurz, Andrea; Allard, Rene; Jones, Philip M; Dennis, Rodolfo J; Painter, Thomas W; Bergese, Sergio D; Leslie, Kate; Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Balasubramanian, Kumar; Duceppe, Emmanuelle; Miller, Scott; Diedericks, Johan; Devereaux, P J

2016-12-01

The PeriOperative ISchemia Evaluation-2 (POISE-2) trial compared aspirin with placebo after noncardiac surgery. The authors randomly assigned 10,010 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery to receive 200 mg aspirin or placebo 2 to 4 h before surgery and then 100 mg aspirin daily or placebo daily for up to 30 days after surgery. Herein, the authors report the effect of aspirin on venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, as well as an updated pooled analysis of randomized trials of antiplatelet therapy for VTE prevention in noncardiac surgery patients. Six thousand five hundred forty-eight patients (65.4%) received anticoagulant prophylaxis. VTE occurred in 53 patients (1.1%) allocated to aspirin and in 60 patients (1.2%) allocated to placebo (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.61 to 1.28). Major or life-threatening bleeding occurred in 312 patients (6.3%) allocated to aspirin and in 256 patients (5.1%) allocated to placebo (hazard ratio, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.44). Concomitant use of anticoagulant prophylaxis did not modify the effect of aspirin on VTE or bleeding. Pooled analysis of the POISE-2 and Pulmonary Embolism Prevention trials demonstrated that symptomatic VTE occurred in 173 (1.3%) of 13,724 patients allocated to aspirin and in 246 (1.8%) of 13,730 patients allocated to placebo (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.89; heterogeneity P = 0.27; I = 17%); the impact of aspirin was very similar in those who did and did not receive pharmacologic prophylaxis. Pooled estimates for symptomatic VTE were similar to the pooled estimates for any deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism from the POISE-2 trial, Pulmonary Embolism Prevention trial, and the Antiplatelet Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis. Aspirin in the POISE-2 trial did not reduce VTE, but two thirds of patients received anticoagulant prophylaxis, there were few VTE events, and results were consistent with a wide range of aspirin effects. A pooled analysis of the randomized trials demonstrates evidence for the efficacy of aspirin for VTE prevention in hospitalized surgical patients.

Six distributional effects of environmental policy.

PubMed

Fullerton, Don

2011-06-01

While prior literature has identified various effects of environmental policy, this note uses the example of a proposed carbon permit system to illustrate and discuss six different types of distributional effects: (1) higher prices of carbon-intensive products, (2) changes in relative returns to factors like labor, capital, and resources, (3) allocation of scarcity rents from a restricted number of permits, (4) distribution of the benefits from improvements in environmental quality, (5) temporary effects during the transition, and (6) capitalization of all those effects into prices of land, corporate stock, or house values. The note also discusses whether all six effects could be regressive, that is, whether carbon policy could place disproportionate burden on the poor. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Study on probability distribution of prices in electricity market: A case study of zhejiang province, china

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H.; Chen, B.; Han, Z. X.; Zhang, F. Q.

2009-05-01

The study on probability density function and distribution function of electricity prices contributes to the power suppliers and purchasers to estimate their own management accurately, and helps the regulator monitor the periods deviating from normal distribution. Based on the assumption of normal distribution load and non-linear characteristic of the aggregate supply curve, this paper has derived the distribution of electricity prices as the function of random variable of load. The conclusion has been validated with the electricity price data of Zhejiang market. The results show that electricity prices obey normal distribution approximately only when supply-demand relationship is loose, whereas the prices deviate from normal distribution and present strong right-skewness characteristic. Finally, the real electricity markets also display the narrow-peak characteristic when undersupply occurs.

Ergodic Transition in a Simple Model of the Continuous Double Auction

PubMed Central

Radivojević, Tijana; Anselmi, Jonatha; Scalas, Enrico

2014-01-01

We study a phenomenological model for the continuous double auction, whose aggregate order process is equivalent to two independent queues. The continuous double auction defines a continuous-time random walk for trade prices. The conditions for ergodicity of the auction are derived and, as a consequence, three possible regimes in the behavior of prices and logarithmic returns are observed. In the ergodic regime, prices are unstable and one can observe a heteroskedastic behavior in the logarithmic returns. On the contrary, non-ergodicity triggers stability of prices, even if two different regimes can be seen. PMID:24558377

Ergodic transition in a simple model of the continuous double auction.

PubMed

Radivojević, Tijana; Anselmi, Jonatha; Scalas, Enrico

2014-01-01

We study a phenomenological model for the continuous double auction, whose aggregate order process is equivalent to two independent M/M/1 queues. The continuous double auction defines a continuous-time random walk for trade prices. The conditions for ergodicity of the auction are derived and, as a consequence, three possible regimes in the behavior of prices and logarithmic returns are observed. In the ergodic regime, prices are unstable and one can observe a heteroskedastic behavior in the logarithmic returns. On the contrary, non-ergodicity triggers stability of prices, even if two different regimes can be seen.

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India.

PubMed

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Townsend, Robert; Topalova, Petia; Vickery, James

2013-01-01

Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is significantly price sensitive, but widespread take-up would not be achieved even if the product offered a payout ratio comparable to U.S. insurance contracts. We present evidence suggesting that lack of trust, liquidity constraints and limited salience are significant non-price frictions that constrain demand. We suggest contract design improvements to mitigate these frictions.

Auction Mechanism to Allocate Air Traffic Control Slots

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raffarin, Marianne

2003-01-01

This article deals with an auction mechanism for airspace slots, as a means of solving the European airspace congestion problem. A disequilibrium, between Air Traffic Control (ATC) services supply and ATC services demand are at the origin of almost one fourth of delays in the air transport industry in Europe. In order to tackle this congestion problem, we suggest modifying both pricing and allocation of ATC services, by setting up an auction mechanism. Objects of the auction will be the right for airlines to cross a part of the airspace, and then to benefit from ATC services over a period corresponding to the necessary time for the crossing. Allocation and payment rules have to be defined according to the objectives of this auction. The auctioneer is the public authority in charge of ATC services, whose aim is to obtain an efficient allocation. Therefore, the social value will be maximized. Another objective is to internalize congestion costs. To that end, we apply the principle of Clarke-Groves mechanism auction: each winner has to pay the externalities imposed on other bidders. The complex context of ATC leads to a specific design for this auction.

Interval linear programming model for long-term planning of vehicle recycling in the Republic of Serbia under uncertainty.

PubMed

Simic, Vladimir; Dimitrijevic, Branka

2015-02-01

An interval linear programming approach is used to formulate and comprehensively test a model for optimal long-term planning of vehicle recycling in the Republic of Serbia. The proposed model is applied to a numerical case study: a 4-year planning horizon (2013-2016) is considered, three legislative cases and three scrap metal price trends are analysed, availability of final destinations for sorted waste flows is explored. Potential and applicability of the developed model are fully illustrated. Detailed insights on profitability and eco-efficiency of the projected contemporary equipped vehicle recycling factory are presented. The influences of the ordinance on the management of end-of-life vehicles in the Republic of Serbia on the vehicle hulks procuring, sorting generated material fractions, sorted waste allocation and sorted metals allocation decisions are thoroughly examined. The validity of the waste management strategy for the period 2010-2019 is tested. The formulated model can create optimal plans for procuring vehicle hulks, sorting generated material fractions, allocating sorted waste flows and allocating sorted metals. Obtained results are valuable for supporting the construction and/or modernisation process of a vehicle recycling system in the Republic of Serbia. © The Author(s) 2015.

Competition between health maintenance organizations and nonintegrated health insurance companies in health insurance markets.

PubMed

Baranes, Edmond; Bardey, David

2015-12-01

This article examines a model of competition between two types of health insurer: Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs) and nonintegrated insurers. HMOs vertically integrate health care providers and pay them at a competitive price, while nonintegrated health insurers work as indemnity plans and pay the health care providers freely chosen by policyholders at a wholesale price. Such difference is referred to as an input price effect which, at first glance, favors HMOs. Moreover, we assume that policyholders place a positive value on the provider diversity supplied by their health insurance plan and that this value increases with the probability of disease. Due to the restricted choice of health care providers in HMOs a risk segmentation occurs: policyholders who choose nonintegrated health insurers are characterized by higher risk, which also tends to favor HMOs. Our equilibrium analysis reveals that the equilibrium allocation only depends on the number of HMOs in the case of exclusivity contracts between HMOs and providers. Surprisingly, our model shows that the interplay between risk segmentation and input price effects may generate ambiguous results. More precisely, we reveal that vertical integration in health insurance markets may decrease health insurers' premiums.

Testing residential energy pricing in the Krakow, Poland, municipal district heat system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wisnewski, R.; Reeves, G.; Markiewicz, J.

1995-08-01

While understanding of the operation of the price and rebate mechanism may be imperfect in the United States, in Poland most of the necessary infrastructure simply does not exist. Of all the former Soviet-bloc countries, Poland has moved the quickest to a market economy; however, the stresses have been and continue to be significant, particularly on the pensioned. The energy sector of the economy is still centrally planned while the legal framework for a transition to a regulated market is created. Some utilities have made more rapid progress than others in the transition. This paper describes the first year ofmore » an experiment involving design, implementation, and analysis of a pilot pricing, conservation, and heating system control experiment in 264 apartments in four buildings. The results--and experience in the United States--will be used to guide the pricing decisions of the municipal district heat utility and the conservation and air quality strategies of the Krakow development authority. Development of a price incentive strategy involved considerations of public policy toward fixed-income occupants and ownership of energy metering. Thermostats were installed to permit occupant control, and building-level conservation and control techniques were implemented. Physical constraints required the use of German ``cost allocator`` metering technology at the apartment level. Final subsidy or ``pseudo-pricing`` design included-building-level incentives as well as apartment performance inducements. Results include insights on communication and cultural impacts and guidance for future testing as well as energy conservation effectiveness values.« less

Toward a Hedonic Value Framework in Health Care.

PubMed

Basu, Anirban; Sullivan, Sean D

2017-02-01

In well-functioning markets, a hedonic pricing scheme can reflect the marginal valuation of various attributes of a differentiated product at market equilibrium. It serves as an important tool to inform pricing of a new product with a specific combination of attributes. Because health cannot be bought and sold in a market setting, and health care markets are distorted by insurance or government subsidies, direct valuation of a health intervention as a differentiated good through observed market prices is difficult. In this article, we discuss the rationale of using stated preference methods for developing a hedonic value framework for health insurance products to inform the decision on whether a product should be covered or subsidized by insurance, given its price. This value index will not reflect marginal value at market equilibrium, as in a hedonic pricing scheme, but would capture the distribution of marginal value in the population. We discuss how affordability concerns can be integrated into the development of a hedonic valuation model. We compare this framework with traditional cost-effectiveness analysis and also the existing value frameworks put forth by various organizations. The framework can be adopted to inform other decisions such as pricing. We argue that developing such a comprehensive and decision-theoretic value framework is feasible and, if successful, can serve to inform health care resource allocation in this country for decades to come in a systematic manner. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative comparison of randomization designs in sequential clinical trials based on treatment balance and allocation randomness.

PubMed

Zhao, Wenle; Weng, Yanqiu; Wu, Qi; Palesch, Yuko

2012-01-01

To evaluate the performance of randomization designs under various parameter settings and trial sample sizes, and identify optimal designs with respect to both treatment imbalance and allocation randomness, we evaluate 260 design scenarios from 14 randomization designs under 15 sample sizes range from 10 to 300, using three measures for imbalance and three measures for randomness. The maximum absolute imbalance and the correct guess (CG) probability are selected to assess the trade-off performance of each randomization design. As measured by the maximum absolute imbalance and the CG probability, we found that performances of the 14 randomization designs are located in a closed region with the upper boundary (worst case) given by Efron's biased coin design (BCD) and the lower boundary (best case) from the Soares and Wu's big stick design (BSD). Designs close to the lower boundary provide a smaller imbalance and a higher randomness than designs close to the upper boundary. Our research suggested that optimization of randomization design is possible based on quantified evaluation of imbalance and randomness. Based on the maximum imbalance and CG probability, the BSD, Chen's biased coin design with imbalance tolerance method, and Chen's Ehrenfest urn design perform better than popularly used permuted block design, EBCD, and Wei's urn design. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How to recover from the financial market flu.

PubMed

Doody, Dennis

2008-05-01

The widely publicized subprime mortgage crisis and soaring crude oil prices have contributed to considerable market volatility in recent months, inducing queasiness among institutional investors. A four-layer approach to asset allocation that carefully considers assets, liquidity, currency, and risk may be the best strategy for maintaining an institution's financial health through today's volatile market. Perhaps the biggest challenge in such financially turbulent times is keeping fear in check.

A Methodology for Improving the Shipyard Planning Process: Using KVA Analysis, Risk Simulation and Strategic Real Options

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

allocated to intangible assets. With Proctor & Gamble’s $53.5 billion acquisition of Gillette , $31.5 billion or 59% of the total purchase price was... outsourcing , alliances, joint ventures) • Compound Option (platform options) • Sequential Options (stage-gate development, R&D, phased...Comparisons • RO/KVA could enhance outsourcing comparisons between the Government’s Most Efficient Organization (MEO) and private-sector

Why does primary angioplasty not work in registries? Quantifying the susceptibility of real-world comparative effectiveness data to allocation bias.

PubMed

Sen, Sayan; Davies, Justin E; Malik, Iqbal S; Foale, Rodney A; Mikhail, Ghada W; Hadjiloizou, Nearchos; Hughes, Alun; Mayet, Jamil; Francis, Darrel P

2012-11-01

Meta-analysis of registries (comparative effectiveness research) shows that primary angioplasty and fibrinolysis have equivalent real-world survival. Yet, randomized, controlled trials consistently find primary angioplasty superior. Can unequal allocation of higher-risk patients in registries have masked primary angioplasty benefit? First, we constructed a model to demonstrate the potential effect of allocation bias. We then analyzed published registries (55022 patients) for allocation of higher-risk patients (Killip class ≥1) to determine whether the choice of reperfusion therapy was affected by the risk level of the patient. Meta-regression was used to examine the relationship between differences in allocation of high-risk patient to primary angioplasty or fibrinolysis and mortality. Initial modeling suggested that registry outcomes are sensitive to allocation bias of high-risk patients. Across the registries, the therapy receiving excess high-risk patients had worse mortality. Unequal distribution of high-risk status accounted for most of the between-registry variance (adjusted R(2)(meta)=83.1%). Accounting for differential allocation of higher-risk patients, primary angioplasty gave 22% lower mortality (odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.97; P=0.029). We derive a formula, called the number needed to abolish, highlighting situations in which comparative effectiveness studies are particularly vulnerable to this bias. In ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, clinicians' preference for management of a few high-risk patients can shift mortality substantially. Comparative effectiveness research in any disease is vulnerable to this, especially diseases with an immediately identifiable high-risk subgroup that clinicians prefer to allocate to 1 therapy. For this reason, preliminary indications from registry-based comparative effectiveness research should be definitively tested by randomized, controlled trials.

Methods and tools to simulate the effect of economic instruments in complex water resources systems. Application to the Jucar river basin.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2014-05-01

The main challenge of the BLUEPRINT to safeguard Europe's water resources (EC, 2012) is to guarantee that enough good quality water is available for people's needs, the economy and the environment. In this sense, economic policy instruments such as water pricing policies and water markets can be applied to enhance efficient use of water. This paper presents a method based on hydro-economic tools to assess the effect of economic instruments on water resource systems. Hydro-economic models allow integrated analysis of water supply, demand and infrastructure operation at the river basin scale, by simultaneously combining engineering, hydrologic and economic aspects of water resources management. The method made use of the simulation and optimization hydroeconomic tools SIMGAMS and OPTIGAMS. The simulation tool SIMGAMS allocates water resources among the users according to priorities and operating rules, and evaluate economic scarcity costs of the system by using economic demand functions. The model's objective function is designed so that the system aims to meet the operational targets (ranked according to priorities) at each month while following the system operating rules. The optimization tool OPTIGAMS allocates water resources based on an economic efficiency criterion: maximize net benefits, or alternatively, minimizing the total water scarcity and operating cost of water use. SIMGAS allows to simulate incentive water pricing policies based on marginal resource opportunity costs (MROC; Pulido-Velazquez et al., 2013). Storage-dependent step pricing functions are derived from the time series of MROC values at a certain reservoir in the system. These water pricing policies are defined based on water availability in the system (scarcity pricing), so that when water storage is high, the MROC is low, while low storage (drought periods) will be associated to high MROC and therefore, high prices. We also illustrate the use of OPTIGAMS to simulate the effect of ideal water markets by economic optimization, without considering the potential effect of transaction costs. These methods and tools have been applied to the Jucar River basin (Spain). The results show the potential of economic instruments in setting incentives for a more efficient management of water resources systems. Acknowledgments: The study has been partially supported by the European Community 7th Framework Project (GENESIS project, n. 226536), SAWARES (Plan Nacional I+D+i 2008-2011, CGL2009-13238-C02-01 and C02-02), SCARCE (Consolider-Ingenio 2010 CSD2009-00065) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness; and EC 7th Framework Project ENHANCE (n. 308438) Reference: Pulido-Velazquez, M., Alvarez-Mendiola, E., and Andreu, J., 2013. Design of Efficient Water Pricing Policies Integrating Basinwide Resource Opportunity Costs. J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 139(5): 583-592.

Suicide prevention after traumatic brain injury: a randomized controlled trial of a program for the psychological treatment of hopelessness.

PubMed

Simpson, Grahame K; Tate, Robyn L; Whiting, Diane L; Cotter, Rachel E

2011-01-01

To evaluate the efficacy of a psychological treatment to reduce moderate to severe hopelessness after severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Randomized controlled trial. Participants were aged between 18 and 65 years, experienced posttraumatic amnesia more than 1day and moderate to severe hopelessness (Beck Hopelessness Scale [BHS]) and/or suicide ideation. Intervention comprised a 20-hour manualized group cognitive behavior therapy program. Participants were randomly allocated using concealed allocation (treatment n = 8; wait-list n = 9); all remained in their allocated group. Outcome variables were collected by assessors blind to group allocation. No between-groups differences were observed on demographic, injury, cognitive, and psychosocial variables at baseline (time 1). A significant group-by-time interaction was found for BHS in the treatment group (F1,15 = 13.20, P = .002), reflecting a reduction in mean BHS scores between time 1 and time 2 (posttreatment) with no main effects for group or time. At 3-month follow-up (time 3), the treatment gains were maintained or improved for 75% (6/8) of participants. Secondary outcome variables (suicide ideation, depression, social problem solving, self-esteem, hopefulness) displayed no significant group-by-time interactions or main effects. This trial provides initial evidence for the efficacy of a psychological intervention in reducing hopelessness among long-term survivors with severe TBI.

Price, tax and tobacco product substitution in Zambia.

PubMed

Stoklosa, Michal; Goma, Fastone; Nargis, Nigar; Drope, Jeffrey; Chelwa, Grieve; Chisha, Zunda; Fong, Geoffrey T

2018-03-24

In Zambia, the number of cigarette users is growing, and the lack of strong tax policies is likely an important cause. When adjusted for inflation, levels of tobacco tax have not changed since 2007. Moreover, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, a less-costly alternative to factory-made (FM) cigarettes, is highly prevalent. We modelled the probability of FM and RYO cigarette smoking using individual-level data obtained from the 2012 and 2014 waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Zambia Survey. We used two estimation methods: the standard estimation method involving separate random effects probit models and a method involving a system of equations (incorporating bivariate seemingly unrelated random effects probit) to estimate price elasticities of FM and RYO cigarettes and their cross-price elasticities. The estimated price elasticities of smoking prevalence are -0.20 and -0.03 for FM and RYO cigarettes, respectively. FM and RYO are substitutes; that is, when the price of one of the products goes up, some smokers switch to the other product. The effects are stronger for substitution from FM to RYO than vice versa. This study affirms that increasing cigarette tax with corresponding price increases could significantly reduce cigarette use in Zambia. Furthermore, reducing between-product price differences would reduce substitution from FM to RYO. Since RYO use is associated with lower socioeconomic status, efforts to decrease RYO use, including through tax/price approaches and cessation assistance, would decrease health inequalities in Zambian society and reduce the negative economic consequences of tobacco use experienced by the poor. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

TT : a program that implements predictor sort design and analysis

Treesearch

S. P. Verrill; D. W. Green; V. L. Herian

1997-01-01

In studies on wood strength, researchers sometimes replace experimental unit allocation via random sampling with allocation via sorts based on nondestructive measurements of strength predictors such as modulus of elasticity and specific gravity. This report documents TT, a computer program that implements recently published methods to increase the sensitivity of such...

Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods2

PubMed Central

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

2007-01-01

Background Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. Objective We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother’s food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Design Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Results Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P < 0.01) and HED (P < 0.001) foods were increased. Maternal BMI interacted with price to influence purchases of HED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.016) and interacted with price to influence purchases of LED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.008). Conclusion These results show the relevance of considering price change as a way to influence food purchases of LED compared with HED foods and the possibility that individual differences may influence the own-price elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods. PMID:17921365

Price and maternal obesity influence purchasing of low- and high-energy-dense foods.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Dearing, Kelly K; Paluch, Rocco A; Roemmich, James N; Cho, David

2007-10-01

Price can influence food purchases, which can influence consumption. Limited laboratory research has assessed the effect of price changes on food purchases, and no research on individual differences that may interact with price to influence purchases exists. We aimed to assess the influence of price changes of low-energy-density (LED) and high-energy-density (HED) foods on mother's food purchases in a laboratory food-purchasing analogue. Mothers were randomly assigned to price conditions in which the price of either LED or HED foods was manipulated from 75% to 125% of the reference purchase price, whereas the price of the alternative foods was kept at the reference value. Mothers completed purchases for 2 income levels ($15 or $30 per family member). Purchases were reduced when prices of LED (P < 0.01) and HED (P < 0.001) foods were increased. Maternal BMI interacted with price to influence purchases of HED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.016) and interacted with price to influence purchases of LED foods when the price of HED foods increased (P = 0.008). These results show the relevance of considering price change as a way to influence food purchases of LED compared with HED foods and the possibility that individual differences may influence the own-price elasticity of HED foods and substitution of LED for HED foods.

Why do Economic Instruments Fail? The role of Water trading and Pricing at a River Basin Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Blanco, C. D.; Gomez, C.; Loch, A. J.; Adamson, D. C.

2016-12-01

Water management problems stem from the mismatch between a multitude of individual decisions, on the one hand, and the current and projected status of water resources, on the other. Economics provides valuable information on the incentives that drive individual decisions and can be used to design instruments that address the problem. Yet, proposals from economists regarding instruments like water pricing or trading are mostly based upon basic and general principles of welfare economics that are not straightaway applicable to assets as complex as water. For example, while water markets clearly serve to the parts directly involved in the transaction, the unique characteristics of water often leads to Pareto inefficient allocations that affect the environment and related economic uses. The flaw in this approach lies in the understanding that water prices and water trading schemes may be good or bad on their own (e.g. finding the "right" price). This vision changes radically when we focus on the problem, instead of the instrument. In this case addressing water management challenges is equivalent to making the multitude of decisions people do about water compatible with collective water governance goals such as curbing degradation trends or building water security for the future. These ideas provide both the basis for assessing existing incentives such as pricing and trading schemes and reshaping economic instruments to serve the objectives of an integrated water resources management.

CPI revision provides more accuracy in the medical care services component.

PubMed

Ford, I K; Sturm, P

1988-04-01

This revision, as in the past, enabled the Bureau to update medical care service expenditure weights in the CPI, including a more complete allocation of health insurance premiums. Instead of keeping the portion of premiums that go to benefits under health insurance, the expenditure weight for each benefit category has been added to the appropriate out-of-pocket expense. The unpublished health insurance item represents only the retained earnings portion of premiums paid by households. The specific item categories included in medical care services have also been updated and expanded. A study conducted during the developmental phase of the revision indicated that the Bureau should expand the eligible priced rates for physicians in the CPI to include not only the "self-pay" rate, but also other categories of payment as well. Another study indicated that the direct pricing of health insurance is not feasible because of the difficulty of factoring out from premium changes the effect of utilization levels and modified coverage. In pricing medical care service items, as with other item categories in the CPI, BLS attempts to exclude from price movement the effect of quality changes. However, some quality changes are difficult to assess or are not readily identified, for example, a change in the ratio of nurses to patients, and such changes may be reflected as part of the price change movement in the CPI.

[The Impact of Prices and Taxes on the Use of Tobacco Products in Latin America and the Caribbean].

PubMed

Guindon, G Emmanuel; Paraje, Guillermo R; Chaloupka, Frank J

2016-10-01

We examined the impact of tobacco prices or taxes on tobacco use in Latin America and Caribbean countries. We searched MEDLINE, EconLit, LILACS, unpublished literature, 6 specialty journals, and reviewed references. We calculated pooled price elasticities using random-effects models. The 32 studies we examined found that cigarette prices have a negative and statistically significant effect on cigarette consumption. A change in price is associated with a less than proportional change in the quantity of cigarettes demanded. In most Latin American countries, own-price elasticity for cigarettes is likely below -0.5 (pooled elasticities, shortrun: -0.31; 95% confidence interval = -0.39, -0.24; longrun: -0.43; 95% CI = -0.51, -0.35). Tax increases effectively reduce cigarette use. Lack of studies using household- or individual-level data limits research's policy relevance.

Kinky thresholds revisited: opportunity costs differ in the NE and SW quadrants.

PubMed

Eckermann, Simon

2015-02-01

Historically, a kinked threshold line on the cost-effectiveness plane at the origin was suggested due to differences in willingness to pay (WTP) for health gain with trade-offs in the north-east (NE) quadrant versus willingness to accept (WTA) cost reductions for health loss with trade-offs in the south-west (SW) quadrant. Empirically, WTA is greater than WTP for equivalent units of health, a finding supported by loss aversion under prospect theory. More recently, appropriate threshold values for health effects have been shown to require an endogenous consideration of the opportunity cost of alternative actions in budget-constrained health systems, but also allocative and displacement inefficiency observed in health system practice. Allocative and displacement inefficiency arise in health systems where the least cost-effective program in contraction has a higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER = m) than the most cost-effective program in expansion (ICER = n) and displaced services (ICER = d), respectively. The health shadow price derived by Pekarsky, [Formula: see text] reflects the opportunity cost of best alternative adoption and financing actions in reimbursing new technology with expected incremental costs and net effect allowing for allocative (n < m), and displacement, inefficiency (d < m). This provides an appropriate threshold value for the NE quadrant. In this paper, I show that for trade-offs in the SW quadrant, where new strategies have lower expected net cost while lower expected net effect than current practice, the opportunity cost is contraction of the least cost-effective program, with threshold ICER m. That is, in the SW quadrant, the cost reduction per unit of decreased effect should be compared with the appropriate opportunity cost, best alternative generation of funding. Consequently, appropriate consideration of opportunity cost produces a kink in the threshold at the origin, with the health shadow price in the NE quadrant and ICER of the least cost-effective program in contraction (m) in the SW quadrant having the same general shape as that previously suggested by WTP versus WTA. The extent of this kink depends on the degree of allocative and displacement inefficiency, with no kink in the threshold line strictly only appropriate with complete allocative and displacement efficiency, that is n = d = m.

ADAPTIVE MATCHING IN RANDOMIZED TRIALS AND OBSERVATIONAL STUDIES

PubMed Central

van der Laan, Mark J.; Balzer, Laura B.; Petersen, Maya L.

2014-01-01

SUMMARY In many randomized and observational studies the allocation of treatment among a sample of n independent and identically distributed units is a function of the covariates of all sampled units. As a result, the treatment labels among the units are possibly dependent, complicating estimation and posing challenges for statistical inference. For example, cluster randomized trials frequently sample communities from some target population, construct matched pairs of communities from those included in the sample based on some metric of similarity in baseline community characteristics, and then randomly allocate a treatment and a control intervention within each matched pair. In this case, the observed data can neither be represented as the realization of n independent random variables, nor, contrary to current practice, as the realization of n/2 independent random variables (treating the matched pair as the independent sampling unit). In this paper we study estimation of the average causal effect of a treatment under experimental designs in which treatment allocation potentially depends on the pre-intervention covariates of all units included in the sample. We define efficient targeted minimum loss based estimators for this general design, present a theorem that establishes the desired asymptotic normality of these estimators and allows for asymptotically valid statistical inference, and discuss implementation of these estimators. We further investigate the relative asymptotic efficiency of this design compared with a design in which unit-specific treatment assignment depends only on the units’ covariates. Our findings have practical implications for the optimal design and analysis of pair matched cluster randomized trials, as well as for observational studies in which treatment decisions may depend on characteristics of the entire sample. PMID:25097298

Price-Shopping in Consumer-Directed Health Plans

PubMed Central

Sood, Neeraj; Wagner, Zachary; Huckfeldt, Peter; Haviland, Amelia

2013-01-01

We use health insurance claims data from 63 large employers to estimate the extent of price shopping for nine common outpatient services in consumer-directed health plans (CDHPs) compared to traditional health plans. The main measures of price-shopping include: (1) the total price paid on the claim, (2) the share of claims from low and high cost providers and (3) the savings from price shopping relative to choosing prices randomly. All analyses control for individual and zip code level demographics and plan characteristics. We also estimate differences in price shopping within CDHPs depending on expected health care costs and whether the service was bought before or after reaching the deductible. For 8 out of 9 services analyzed, prices paid by CDHP and traditional plan enrollees did not differ significantly; CDHP enrollees paid 2.3% less for office visits. Similarly, office visits was the only service where CDHP enrollment resulted in a significantly larger share of claims from low cost providers and greater savings from price shopping relative to traditional plans. There was also no evidence that, within CDHP plans, consumers with lower expected medical expenses exhibited more price-shopping or that consumers exhibited more price-shopping before reaching the deductible. PMID:25342936

RECAL: A Computer Program for Selecting Sample Days for Recreation Use Estimation

Treesearch

D.L. Erickson; C.J. Liu; H. Ken Cordell; W.L. Chen

1980-01-01

Recreation Calendar (RECAL) is a computer program in PL/I for drawing a sample of days for estimating recreation use. With RECAL, a sampling period of any length may be chosen; simple random, stratified random, and factorial designs can be accommodated. The program randomly allocates days to strata and locations.

Sydney Playground Project: A Cluster-Randomized Trial to Increase Physical Activity, Play, and Social Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bundy, Anita; Engelen, Lina; Wyver, Shirley; Tranter, Paul; Ragen, Jo; Bauman, Adrian; Baur, Louise; Schiller, Wendy; Simpson, Judy M.; Niehues, Anita N.; Perry, Gabrielle; Jessup, Glenda; Naughton, Geraldine

2017-01-01

Background: We assessed the effectiveness of a simple intervention for increasing children's physical activity, play, perceived competence/social acceptance, and social skills. Methods: A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted, in which schools were the clusters. Twelve Sydney (Australia) primary schools were randomly allocated to…

The Walking School Bus and children's physical activity: A pilot cluster randomized controlled trial

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To evaluate the impact of a "walking school bus" program on children's rates of active commuting to school and physical activity. We conducted a pilot cluster randomized controlled trial among 4th-graders from 8 schools in Houston, Texas (N = 149). Random allocation to treatment or control condition...

Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India

PubMed Central

Cole, Shawn; Giné, Xavier; Tobacman, Jeremy; Townsend, Robert; Topalova, Petia; Vickery, James

2012-01-01

Why do many households remain exposed to large exogenous sources of non-systematic income risk? We use a series of randomized field experiments in rural India to test the importance of price and non-price factors in the adoption of an innovative rainfall insurance product. Demand is significantly price sensitive, but widespread take-up would not be achieved even if the product offered a payout ratio comparable to U.S. insurance contracts. We present evidence suggesting that lack of trust, liquidity constraints and limited salience are significant non-price frictions that constrain demand. We suggest contract design improvements to mitigate these frictions. PMID:24765234

Decompositions of injection patterns for nodal flow allocation in renewable electricity networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schäfer, Mirko; Tranberg, Bo; Hempel, Sabrina; Schramm, Stefan; Greiner, Martin

2017-08-01

The large-scale integration of fluctuating renewable power generation represents a challenge to the technical and economical design of a sustainable future electricity system. In this context, the increasing significance of long-range power transmission calls for innovative methods to understand the emerging complex flow patterns and to integrate price signals about the respective infrastructure needs into the energy market design. We introduce a decomposition method of injection patterns. Contrary to standard flow tracing approaches, it provides nodal allocations of link flows and costs in electricity networks by decomposing the network injection pattern into market-inspired elementary import/export building blocks. We apply the new approach to a simplified data-driven model of a European electricity grid with a high share of renewable wind and solar power generation.

Information-based models for finance and insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoyle, Edward

2010-10-01

In financial markets, the information that traders have about an asset is reflected in its price. The arrival of new information then leads to price changes. The `information-based framework' of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) isolates the emergence of information, and examines its role as a driver of price dynamics. This approach has led to the development of new models that capture a broad range of price behaviour. This thesis extends the work of BHM by introducing a wider class of processes for the generation of the market filtration. In the BHM framework, each asset is associated with a collection of random cash flows. The asset price is the sum of the discounted expectations of the cash flows. Expectations are taken with respect (i) an appropriate measure, and (ii) the filtration generated by a set of so-called information processes that carry noisy or imperfect market information about the cash flows. To model the flow of information, we introduce a class of processes termed Lévy random bridges (LRBs), generalising the Brownian and gamma information processes of BHM. Conditioned on its terminal value, an LRB is identical in law to a Lévy bridge. We consider in detail the case where the asset generates a single cash flow X_T at a fixed date T. The flow of information about X_T is modelled by an LRB with random terminal value X_T. An explicit expression for the price process is found by working out the discounted conditional expectation of X_T with respect to the natural filtration of the LRB. New models are constructed using information processes related to the Poisson process, the Cauchy process, the stable-1/2 subordinator, the variance-gamma process, and the normal inverse-Gaussian process. These are applied to the valuation of credit-risky bonds, vanilla and exotic options, and non-life insurance liabilities.

Financial time series: A physics perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki; Amaral, Luis A. N.; Rosenow, Bernd; Stanley, H. Eugene

2000-06-01

Physicists in the last few years have started applying concepts and methods of statistical physics to understand economic phenomena. The word ``econophysics'' is sometimes used to refer to this work. One reason for this interest is the fact that Economic systems such as financial markets are examples of complex interacting systems for which a huge amount of data exist and it is possible that economic problems viewed from a different perspective might yield new results. This article reviews the results of a few recent phenomenological studies focused on understanding the distinctive statistical properties of financial time series. We discuss three recent results-(i) The probability distribution of stock price fluctuations: Stock price fluctuations occur in all magnitudes, in analogy to earthquakes-from tiny fluctuations to very drastic events, such as market crashes, eg., the crash of October 19th 1987, sometimes referred to as ``Black Monday''. The distribution of price fluctuations decays with a power-law tail well outside the Lévy stable regime and describes fluctuations that differ by as much as 8 orders of magnitude. In addition, this distribution preserves its functional form for fluctuations on time scales that differ by 3 orders of magnitude, from 1 min up to approximately 10 days. (ii) Correlations in financial time series: While price fluctuations themselves have rapidly decaying correlations, the magnitude of fluctuations measured by either the absolute value or the square of the price fluctuations has correlations that decay as a power-law and persist for several months. (iii) Correlations among different companies: The third result bears on the application of random matrix theory to understand the correlations among price fluctuations of any two different stocks. From a study of the eigenvalue statistics of the cross-correlation matrix constructed from price fluctuations of the leading 1000 stocks, we find that the largest 5-10% of the eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors show systematic deviations from the predictions for a random matrix, whereas the rest of the eigenvalues conform to random matrix behavior-suggesting that these 5-10% of the eigenvalues contain system-specific information about correlated behavior. .

Price discounts significantly enhance fruit and vegetable purchases when combined with nutrition education: a randomized controlled supermarket trial.

PubMed

Waterlander, Wilma E; de Boer, Michiel R; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M

2013-04-01

Reducing fruit and vegetable (F&V) prices is a frequently considered policy to improve dietary habits in the context of health promotion. However, evidence on the effectiveness of this intervention is limited. The objective was to examine the effects of a 50% price discount on F&Vs or nutrition education or a combination of both on supermarket purchases. A 6-mo randomized controlled trial within Dutch supermarkets was conducted. Regular supermarket shoppers were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 conditions: 50% price discounts on F&Vs, nutrition education, 50% price discounts plus nutrition education, or no intervention. A total of 199 participants provided baseline data; 151 (76%) were included in the final analysis. F&V purchases were measured by using supermarket register receipts at baseline, at 1 mo after the start of the intervention, at 3 mo, at 6 mo (end of the intervention period), and 3 mo after the intervention ended (9 mo). Adjusted multilevel models showed significantly higher F&V purchases (per household/2 wk) as a result of the price discount (+3.9 kg; 95% CI: 1.5, 6.3 kg) and the discount plus education intervention (+5.6 kg; 95% CI: 3.2, 7.9 kg) at 6 mo compared with control. Moreover, the percentage of participants who consumed recommended amounts of F&Vs (≥400 g/d) increased from 42.5% at baseline to 61.3% at 6 mo in both discount groups (P = 0.03). Education alone had no significant effect. Discounting F&Vs is a promising intervention strategy because it resulted in substantially higher F&V purchases, and no adverse effects were observed. Therefore, pricing strategies form an important focus for future interventions or policy. However, the long-term effects and the ultimate health outcomes require further investigation. This trial was registered at the ISRCTN Trial Register as number ISRCTN56596945 and at the Dutch Trial Register (http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/index.asp) as number NL22568.029.08.

Executing effective road safety advertising: are big production budgets necessary?

PubMed

Donovan, R J; Jalleh, G; Henley, N

1999-05-01

Twelve (12) road safety television commercials (TVCs) ranging in production costs from $A15,000 to $A250,000 (current prices) were evaluated using standard advertising pre-test procedures. The twelve ads covered four road safety behaviours (speeding; drink driving; fatigue; and inattention), and included a variety of executional types within and across behaviours. One ad in each of the four behaviours was an expensive TAC and ($A200,000 or more). The testing procedure assessed respondents' self-reported impact of the ad on their future intentions to comply with the road safety behavior advocated in the ad. Just under 1000 appropriately screened motor vehicle drivers license holders were recruited via street intercept methods and randomly allocated to one of the twelve and exposure conditions. The results showed that while the two best performing ads were highly dramatic TAC ads showing graphic crash scenes, these were also the most expensive ads to produce, and, being 60 and 90 s, the most expensive to air. In several cases, 30 s low cost talking heads testimonials performed equally as well as their far more expensive counterparts. We conclude that big production budgets may not be necessary to create effective road safety advertising.

Comparing gender discrimination and inequality in indie and traditional publishing.

PubMed

Weinberg, Dana B; Kapelner, Adam

2018-01-01

In traditional publishing, female authors' titles command nearly half (45%) the price of male authors' and are underrepresented in more prestigious genres, and books are published by publishing houses, which determined whose books get published, subject classification, and retail price. In the last decade, the growth of digital technologies and sales platforms have enabled unprecedented numbers of authors to bypass publishers to publish and sell books. The rise of indie publishing (aka self-publishing) reflects the growth of the "gig" economy, where the influence of firms has diminished and workers are exposed more directly to external markets. Encompassing the traditional and the gig economy, the book industry illuminates how the gig economy may disrupt, replicate, or transform the gender discrimination mechanisms and inequality found in the traditional economy. In a natural experiment spanning from 2002 to 2012 and including over two million book titles, we compare discrimination mechanisms and inequality in indie and traditional publishing. We find that indie publishing, though more egalitarian, largely replicates traditional publishing's gender discrimination patterns, showing an unequal distribution of male and female authors by genre (allocative discrimination), devaluation of genres written predominantly by female authors (valuative discrimination), and lower prices within genres for books by female authors (within-job discrimination). However, these discrimination mechanisms are associated with far less price inequality in indie, only 7%, in large part due to the smaller and lower range of prices in indie publishing compared to traditional publishing. We conclude that, with greater freedom, workers in the gig economy may be inclined to greater equality but will largely replicate existing labor market segmentation and the lower valuation of female-typical work and of female workers. Nonetheless, price setting for work may be more similar for workers in the gig economy due to market competition that will compress prices ranges.

Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

2012-12-01

Low carbon energy technologies are gaining increasing importance in India for reducing emissions as well as diversifying its energy supply mix. The present paper presents and analyses a targeted approach for pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies in the Indian energy market. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements and expert opinion. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario it is found that in the long run all solar, wind and nuclear will achieve their targets without any subsidy push.more » In the short run however, nuclear and solar energy require significant subsidy push. Nuclear energy requires a much higher subsidy allocation as compared to solar because the targets assumed are also higher for nuclear energy. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies significantly. Still subsidy is required especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. It is also found that pushing solar, wind and nuclear technologies might lead to decrease in share of CCS under the price scenario and biomass under both BAU and price scenario, which implies that one set of low carbon technologies is substituted by other set of low carbon technologies. Thus the objective of emission mitigation might not be achieved due to this substitution. Moreover sensitivity on nuclear energy cost was done to represent risk mitigation for this technology and it was found that higher cost can significantly decrease the share of this technology under both the BAU and carbon price scenario.« less

Transcutaneous tibial nerve stimulation in the treatment of lower urinary tract symptoms and its impact on health-related quality of life in patients with Parkinson disease: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Perissinotto, Maria Carolina; DʼAncona, Carlos Arturo Levi; Lucio, Adélia; Campos, Renata Martins; Abreu, Anelyssa

2015-01-01

A randomized controlled trial study was performed to evaluate the efficacy of transcutaneous tibial nerve stimulation (TTNS) and sham TTNS, in patients with Parkinson disease (PD) with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS). Randomized controlled trial. Thirteen patients with a diagnosis of PD and bothersome LUTS were randomly allocated to one of the following groups: Group I: TTNS group (n = 8) and group II: Sham group (n = 5). Both groups attended twice a week during 5 weeks; each session lasted 30 minutes. Eight patients received TTNS treatment and 5 subjects allocated to group II were managed with sham surface electrodes that delivered no electrical stimulation. Assessments were performed before and after the treatment; they included a 3-day bladder diary, Overactive Bladder Questionnaire (OAB-V8), and the International Consultation on Incontinence Quality of Life Questionnaire Short Form (ICIQ-SF), and urodynamic evaluation. Following 5 weeks of treatment, patients allocated to TTNS demonstrated statistically significant reductions in the number of urgency episodes (P = .004) and reductions in nocturia episodes (P < .01). Participants allocated to active treatment also showed better results after treatment in the OAB-V8 and ICIQ-SF scores (P < .01, respectively). Urodynamic testing revealed that patients in the active treatment group showed improvements in intravesical volume at strong desire to void (P < .05) and volume at urgency (P < .01) when compared to subjects in the sham treatment group. These findings suggest that TTNS is effective in the treatment of LUTS in patients with PD, reducing urgency and nocturia episodes and improving urodynamic parameters as well as symptom scores measured by the OAB-V8 and health-related quality-of-life scores measured by the ICIQ-SF.

Studies on price indexes and innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carreon-Rodriguez, Victor G.

This thesis develops two studies on price indexes and innovation. The first one analyzes the problems on the computation of price indexes when there are improvements in the goods' quality. These problems arise because we use price indexes that measure the prices of the goods that consumers buy rather than the prices of the services that consumers enjoy. In order to see this, I compute a true price for gasoline that is based on the services that it provides. We ask for the cost of moving one ton at a speed of 40 mph for a distance of 100 miles. This true price is compared with the official price for gasoline. The average annual bias (the rise in the official price relative to the true price) is 3.2% per year. We also compute the hours of work required to cover that cost. We find that in 1925 there were needed almost 1.5 hours of work, while by 1992 there were just needed about 8 minutes to move one ton as specified above. The second one develops a model of Cournot competition in innovation. This model introduces two new features. First, firm's investment in research and development is divided into two pieces, expenditures in human capital and expenditures in all other inputs (called R&D for simplicity). Second, the government also allocates resources to research and development, which affect the stock of knowledge available to the firms. Some interesting results arise from this model. First, investments in human capital and in R&D are increasing in the past government's investment. Second, investments per firm are decreasing in the number of firms in the industry, but the totals are larger if some conditions on the elasticities are satisfied. Third, the welfare analysis tells us that if there are entry barriers, each firm is overinvesting in both inputs. On the other hand, if there is free entry, there are too many firms engaged in the innovative race. Finally, we perform an empirical analysis and we find that there are lagged effects of the government's investment on the pharmaceutical industry's investments.

The impact of financial incentives on participants' food purchasing patterns in a supermarket-based randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Olstad, Dana Lee; Crawford, David A; Abbott, Gavin; McNaughton, Sarah A; Le, Ha Nd; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Pollard, Christina; Ball, Kylie

2017-08-25

The impacts of supermarket-based nutrition promotion interventions might be overestimated if participants shift their proportionate food purchasing away from their usual stores. This study quantified whether participants who received price discounts on fruits and vegetables (FV) in the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life (SHELf) randomized controlled trial (RCT) shifted their FV purchasing into study supermarkets during the intervention period. Participants were 642 females randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Participants self-reported the proportion of FV purchased in study supermarkets at baseline, 3- and 6-months post-intervention. Fisher's exact and χ 2 tests assessed differences among groups in the proportion of FV purchased in study supermarkets at each time point. Multinomial logistic regression assessed differences among groups in the change in proportionate FV purchasing over time. Post-intervention, 49% of participants purchased ≥50% of their FV in study supermarkets. Compared to all other groups, the price reduction group was approximately twice as likely (RRR: 1.8-2.2) to have increased proportionate purchasing of FV in study supermarkets from baseline to post-intervention (p< 0.05). Participants who received price reductions on FV were approximately twice as likely to shift their FV purchasing from other stores into study supermarkets during the intervention period. Unless food purchasing data are available for all sources, differential changes in purchasing patterns can make it difficult to discern the true impacts of nutrition interventions. The SHELf trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials Registration ISRCTN39432901, Registered 30 June 2010, Retrospectively registered ( http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN39432901 ).

Improving Resource Allocation Decisions to Reduce the Risk of Terrorist Attacks on Passenger Rail Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

theory, passenger rail bombing , attacker-defender methodology 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 103 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT...bombers carried out a successful coordinated attack against the London mass transit system in July 2005. Three suicide bombings occurred on trains and...iron rods to make shrapnel. The precise timing indicates the terrorists themselves detonated their own devices. In March 2016, a suicide bomb

The application of statistical mechanics on the study of glassy behaviors in transportation networks and dynamics in models of financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeung, Chi Ho

In this thesis, we study two interdisciplinary problems in the framework of statistical physics, which show the broad applicability of physics on problems with various origins. The first problem corresponds to an optimization problem in allocating resources on random regular networks. Frustrations arise from competition for resources. When the initial resources are uniform, different regimes with discrete fractions of satisfied nodes are observed, resembling the Devil's staircase. We apply the spin glass theory in analyses and demonstrate how functional recursions are converted to simple recursions of probabilities. Equilibrium properties such as the average energy and the fraction of free nodes are derived. When the initial resources are bimodally distributed, increases in the fraction of rich nodes induce a glassy transition, entering a glassy phase described by the existence of multiple metastable states, in which we employ the replica symmetry breaking ansatz for analysis. The second problem corresponds to the study of multi-agent systems modeling financial markets. Agents in the system trade among themselves, and self-organize to produce macroscopic trading behaviors resembling the real financial markets. These behaviors include the arbitraging activities, the setting up and the following of price trends. A phase diagram of these behaviors is obtained, as a function of the sensitivity of price and the market impact factor. We finally test the applicability of the models with real financial data including the Hang Seng Index, the Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A substantial fraction of agents gains faster than the inflation rate of the indices, suggesting the possibility of using multi-agent systems as a tool for real trading.

Effect of food prices on the prevalence of obesity among young adults.

PubMed

Han, E; Powell, L M

2011-03-01

To examine the extent to which various food prices were associated with the obesity status of young adults. Retrospective cohort study of 6537 men and 5324 women in the USA using panel data from the Monitoring the Future Surveys (1992-2003), which were merged with two food-at-home and one food-away-from-home price measures from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association. Longitudinal individual random effect and fixed effect models were estimated. This study found that food prices did not have a significant effect on the prevalence of obesity among young female adults. For young adult men, an individual random effect estimator suggested that a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with a 13.2% decrease in the probability of obesity, but this effect lost its economic and statistical significance once individual fixed effects were controlled for in the estimation. Overall, the results imply that observed time-varying individual characteristics, such as working status, marital status and school enrolment status, may over-ride the effect of changes in food prices for young adults. More research employing longitudinal data is necessary to determine if food subsidies or taxes, particularly soft drink and fast food taxes or subsidies for fruit and vegetables, could be effective policy measures to curtail the increasing prevalence of obesity among young adults. Copyright © 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examining farmers' willingness to grow and allocate land for oilseed crops for biofuel production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The purpose of this paper is to determine farmers’ willingness to adopt and allocate land for growing non-food oilseeds as bio-energy crops across the western US. A mail survey was conducted in three regions of the western US from randomly selected wheat farmers. Data was analyzed using Heckman’s tw...

Deservingness and Equality in Children's Reward Allocations: Developmental Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Martin F.; Yehl, H. Michael

A total of 96 students (16 males and 16 females, chosen randomly from each of the first, fourth, and seventh grades of a grade school and a middle school,) allocated rewards in response to stimuli representing pairs of children differing in work output and effort. Stimulus materials consisted of: (1) a booklet containing nine drawings representing…

Predictor sort sampling, tight t`s, and the analysis of covariance : theory, tables, and examples

Treesearch

S. P. Verrill; D. W. Green

In recent years wood strength researchers have begun to replace experimental unit allocation via random sampling with allocation via sorts based on nondestructive measurements of strength predictors such as modulus of elasticity and specific gravity. Although this procedure has the potential of greatly increasing experimental sensitivity, as currently implemented it...

Resource Allocation and Time Utilization in IGE and Non-IGE Schools. Technical Paper No. 410.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rossmiller, Richard A.; Geske, Terry G.

This study addressed two basic questions; (1) Do individually guided education (IGE) schools cost more or exhibit different expenditure patterns than non-IGE schools? (2) Do instructional personnel in IGE schools allocate their time differently than instructional personnel in non-IGE schools? Data were obtained from a random sample of 41 IGE…

The FOAM study: is Hysterosalpingo foam sonography (HyFoSy) a cost-effective alternative for hysterosalpingography (HSG) in assessing tubal patency in subfertile women? Study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

van Rijswijk, Joukje; van Welie, Nienke; Dreyer, Kim; van Hooff, Machiel H A; de Bruin, Jan Peter; Verhoeve, Harold R; Mol, Femke; Kleiman-Broeze, Kimiko A; Traas, Maaike A F; Muijsers, Guido J J M; Manger, Arentje P; Gianotten, Judith; de Koning, Cornelia H; Koning, Aafke M H; Bayram, Neriman; van der Ham, David P; Vrouenraets, Francisca P J M; Kalafusova, Michaela; van de Laar, Bob I G; Kaijser, Jeroen; van Oostwaard, Miriam F; Meijer, Wouter J; Broekmans, Frank J M; Valkenburg, Olivier; van der Voet, Lucy F; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Lambers, Marieke J; Peters, Henrike E; Lier, Marit C I; Lambalk, Cornelis B; van Wely, Madelon; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; Stoker, Jaap; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Mijatovic, Velja

2018-05-09

Tubal pathology is a causative factor in 20% of subfertile couples. Traditionally, tubal testing during fertility work-up is performed by hysterosalpingography (HSG). Hysterosalpingo-foam sonography (HyFoSy) is a new technique that is thought to have comparable accuracy as HSG, while it is less expensive and more patient friendly. HyFoSy would be an acceptable alternative for HSG, provided it has similar effectiveness in terms of patient outcomes. We aim to compare the effectiveness and costs of management guided by HyFoSy or by HSG. Consenting women will undergo tubal testing by both HyFoSy and HSG in a randomized order during fertility work-up. The study group will consist of 1163 subfertile women between 18 and 41 years old who are scheduled for tubal patency testing during their fertility work-up. Women with anovulatory cycles not responding to ovulation induction, endometriosis, severe male subfertility or a known contrast (iodine) allergy will be excluded. We anticipate that 7 % (N = 82) of the participants will have discordant test results for HyFoSy and HSG. These participants will be randomly allocated to either a management strategy based on HyFoSy or a management strategy based on HSG, resulting in either a diagnostic laparoscopy with chromopertubation or a strategy that assumes tubal patency (intrauterine insemination or expectant management). The primary outcome is ongoing pregnancy leading to live birth within 12 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes are patient pain scores, time to pregnancy, clinical pregnancy, miscarriage rate, multiple pregnancy rate, preterm birth rate and number of additional treatments. Costs will be estimated by counting resource use and calculating unit prices. This trial will compare the effectiveness and costs of HyFoSy versus HSG in assessing tubal patency in subfertile women. Dutch Trial Register (NTR 4746, http://www.trialregister.nl ). Date of registration: 19 August 2014.

Optimizing multiple reliable forward contracts for reservoir allocation using multitime scale streamflow forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Mengqian; Lall, Upmanu; Robertson, Andrew W.; Cook, Edward

2017-03-01

Streamflow forecasts at multiple time scales provide a new opportunity for reservoir management to address competing objectives. Market instruments such as forward contracts with specified reliability are considered as a tool that may help address the perceived risk associated with the use of such forecasts in lieu of traditional operation and allocation strategies. A water allocation process that enables multiple contracts for water supply and hydropower production with different durations, while maintaining a prescribed level of flood risk reduction, is presented. The allocation process is supported by an optimization model that considers multitime scale ensemble forecasts of monthly streamflow and flood volume over the upcoming season and year, the desired reliability and pricing of proposed contracts for hydropower and water supply. It solves for the size of contracts at each reliability level that can be allocated for each future period, while meeting target end of period reservoir storage with a prescribed reliability. The contracts may be insurable, given that their reliability is verified through retrospective modeling. The process can allow reservoir operators to overcome their concerns as to the appropriate skill of probabilistic forecasts, while providing water users with short-term and long-term guarantees as to how much water or energy they may be allocated. An application of the optimization model to the Bhakra Dam, India, provides an illustration of the process. The issues of forecast skill and contract performance are examined. A field engagement of the idea is useful to develop a real-world perspective and needs a suitable institutional environment.

Variation in cash price of the generic medications most prescribed by dermatologists in pharmacies across the United States.

PubMed

Alghanem, Noor; Abokwidir, Manal; Fleischer, Alan B; Feldman, Steven R; Alghanem, Ward

2017-03-01

The United States has the highest drug costs in the world. Consumers complain about large price differences at pharmacies on generic drugs. To evaluate variation in cash prices of generic medications most prescribed in dermatology across different drugstores and states in United States. The 11 generic drugs most prescribed by dermatologists according to National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey were assessed. By using Google, the most common used pharmacies in United States were listed, which are located at a random selection of six states. By calling the first available number of each pharmacy in the six states and asking about the generic cash price of the smallest stock size and the most prescribed type, the data were collected. Drug prices varied; the median cumulative price of the 11 medications was highest at Rite Aid ($1226) and lowest at Walmart ($795.34) with 35% difference. The prices at CVS differed by 20% across different states; however, the prices at Walmart, Rite Aid and Walgreens were consistent. New York has the highest and Iowa the lowest prices, especially at CVS, ($1160.79) versus ($931.32). There are varieties in the prices for the generic medications in different pharmacies and States.

Price Bubbles with Discounting: A Web-Based Classroom Experiment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bostian, AJ A.; Holt, Charles A.

2009-01-01

The authors describe a Web-based classroom experiment with two assets: cash and a stock that pays a random dividend. The interest rate on cash, coupled with a well-chosen final redemption value for the stock, induces a flat trajectory for the fundamental value of the stock. However, prices typically rise above this value during a session. The…

The Impact of Prices and Taxes on the Use of Tobacco Products in Latin America and the Caribbean

PubMed Central

Paraje, Guillermo R.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2015-01-01

We examined the impact of tobacco prices or taxes on tobacco use in Latin America and Caribbean countries. We searched MEDLINE, EconLit, LILACS, unpublished literature, 6 specialty journals, and reviewed references. We calculated pooled price elasticities using random-effects models. The 32 studies we examined found that cigarette prices have a negative and statistically significant effect on cigarette consumption. A change in price is associated with a less than proportional change in the quantity of cigarettes demanded. In most Latin American countries, own-price elasticity for cigarettes is likely below  −0.5  (pooled elasticities, short-run: −0.31; 95% confidence interval = −0.39, −0.24; long-run: −0.43; 95% CI = −0.51, −0.35). Tax increases effectively reduce cigarette use. Lack of studies using household- or individual-level data limits research’s policy relevance. PMID:25602902

Reduction potential, shadow prices, and pollution costs of agricultural pollutants in China.

PubMed

Tang, Kai; Gong, Chengzhu; Wang, Dong

2016-01-15

This paper analyses the reduction potential, shadow prices, and pollution costs of agricultural pollutants in China based on provincial panel data for 2001-2010. Using a parameterized quadratic form for the directional output distance function, we find that if agricultural sectors in all provinces were to produce on the production frontier, China could potentially reduce agricultural emissions of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) by 16.0%, 16.2%, and 20.4%, respectively. Additionally, our results show that the shadow price of TN increased rapidly and continuously, while that of COD and TP fluctuated for the whole period. For the whole country, the average shadow price of COD, TN, and TP are 8266 Yuan/tonne, 25,560 Yuan/tonne, and 10,160 Yuan/tonne, respectively. The regional shadow prices of agricultural pollutants are unbalanced. Furthermore, we show that the pollution costs from emissions of COD, TN, and TP are 6.09% of the annual gross output value of the agricultural sector and are highest in the Western and lowest in the Eastern provinces. Our estimates suggest that there is scope for further pollution abatement and simultaneous output expansion for China's agriculture if farmers promote greater efficiency in their production process. Policymakers are required to dynamically adjust the pollution tax rates and ascertain the initial permit price in an emission trading system. Policymakers should also consider the different pollution costs for each province when making the reduction allocations within the agricultural sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Effect of IV Amino Acid Supplementation on Mortality in ICU Patients May Be Dependent on Kidney Function: Post Hoc Subgroup Analyses of a Multicenter Randomized Trial.

PubMed

Zhu, Ran; Allingstrup, Matilde J; Perner, Anders; Doig, Gordon S

2018-05-15

We investigated whether preexisting kidney function determines if ICU patients may benefit from increased (2.0 g/kg/d) protein intake. Post hoc, hypothesis-generating, subgroup analysis of a multicenter, phase 2, randomized clinical trial. All analyses were conducted by intention to treat and maintained group allocation. Ninety-day mortality was the primary outcome. ICUs of 16 hospitals throughout Australia and New Zealand. Adult critically ill patients expected to remain in the study ICU for longer than 2 days. Random allocation to receive a daily supplement of up to 100 g of IV amino acids to achieve a total protein intake of 2.0 g/kg/d or standard nutrition care. A total of 474 patients were randomized: 235 to standard care and 239 to IV amino acid supplementation. There was a statistically significant interaction between baseline kidney function and supplementation with study amino acids (p value for interaction = 0.026). Within the subgroup of patients with normal kidney function at randomization, patients who were allocated to receive the study amino acid supplement were less likely to die before study day 90 (covariate-adjusted risk difference, -7.9%; 95% CI, -15.1 to -0.7; p = 0.034). Furthermore, amino acid supplementation significantly increased estimated glomerular filtration rate in these patients (repeated-measures treatment × time interaction p = 0.009). Within the subgroup of patients with baseline kidney dysfunction and/or risk of progression of acute kidney injury, a significant effect of the study intervention on mortality was not found (covariate-adjusted risk difference, -0.6%; 95% CI, -16.2 to 15.2; p = 0.95). In this post hoc, hypothesis-generating, subgroup analysis, we observed reduced mortality and improved estimated glomerular filtration rate in ICU patients with normal kidney function who were randomly allocated to receive increased protein intake (up to 2.0 g/kg/d). We strongly recommend confirmation of these results in trials with low risk of bias before this treatment is recommended for routine care.

An intervention that reduces stress in people who combine work with informal care: randomized controlled trial results.

PubMed

Boezeman, Edwin J; Nieuwenhuijsen, Karen; Sluiter, Judith K

2018-06-01

The aim of the research was to examine whether a role-focused self-help course intervention would decrease caregiver stress and distress, and functioning problems, among people who suffer stress because they combine paid work with informal care. A pre-registered (NTR 5528) randomized controlled design was applied (intervention vs. wait list control). Participants (n = 128) were people who had paid work and were suffering stress due to their involvement in informal care activities. Participants allocated to the intervention group (n = 65) received the role-focused self-help course. Control group members (n = 63) received this intervention after all measurements. Prior to the random allocation (pre-test), and 1 month (post-test 1) and 2 months (post-test 2) after allocation, all participants completed a questionnaire that measured their caregiver stress (primary outcome), distress, work functioning, negative care-to-work interference and negative care-to-social and personal life interference. Mixed model ANOVAs were used to test the effectiveness of the intervention. Two months after allocation, the intervention group participants had lower levels of caregiver stress and distress compared with the control group participants. The intervention did not directly resolve impaired work functioning or interference of care with work and social/personal life. The intervention decreases caregiver stress and distress in people who suffer stress because they combine paid work with informal caring. The intervention (Dutch version) can be downloaded at no cost from www.amc.nl/mantelzorgstress.

A distributed scheduling algorithm for heterogeneous real-time systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeineldine, Osman; El-Toweissy, Mohamed; Mukkamala, Ravi

1991-01-01

Much of the previous work on load balancing and scheduling in distributed environments was concerned with homogeneous systems and homogeneous loads. Several of the results indicated that random policies are as effective as other more complex load allocation policies. The effects of heterogeneity on scheduling algorithms for hard real time systems is examined. A distributed scheduler specifically to handle heterogeneities in both nodes and node traffic is proposed. The performance of the algorithm is measured in terms of the percentage of jobs discarded. While a random task allocation is very sensitive to heterogeneities, the algorithm is shown to be robust to such non-uniformities in system components and load.

Pseudo-random dynamic address configuration (PRDAC) algorithm for mobile ad hoc networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shaochuan; Tan, Xuezhi

2007-11-01

By analyzing all kinds of address configuration algorithms, this paper provides a new pseudo-random dynamic address configuration (PRDAC) algorithm for mobile ad hoc networks. Based on PRDAC, the first node that initials this network randomly chooses a nonlinear shift register that can generates an m-sequence. When another node joins this network, the initial node will act as an IP address configuration sever to compute an IP address according to this nonlinear shift register, and then allocates this address and tell the generator polynomial of this shift register to this new node. By this means, when other node joins this network, any node that has obtained an IP address can act as a server to allocate address to this new node. PRDAC can also efficiently avoid IP conflicts and deal with network partition and merge as same as prophet address (PA) allocation and dynamic configuration and distribution protocol (DCDP). Furthermore, PRDAC has less algorithm complexity, less computational complexity and more sufficient assumption than PA. In addition, PRDAC radically avoids address conflicts and maximizes the utilization rate of IP addresses. Analysis and simulation results show that PRDAC has rapid convergence, low overhead and immune from topological structures.

Principles of scarce medical resource allocation in natural disaster relief: a simulation approach.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Huang, Simin

2012-01-01

A variety of triage principles have been proposed. The authors sought to evaluate their effects on how many lives can be saved in a hypothetical disaster. To determine an optimal scarce resource-rationing principle in the emergency response domain, considering the trade-off between lifesaving efficiency and ethical issues. A discrete event simulation model is developed to examine the efficiency of four resource-rationing principles: first come-first served, random, most serious first, and least serious first. Seven combinations of available resources are examined in the simulations to evaluate the performance of the principles under different levels of resource scarcity. The simulation results indicate that the performance of the medical resource allocation principles is related to the level of the resource scarcity. When the level of the scarcity is high, the performances of the four principles differ significantly. The least serious first principle performs best, followed by the random principle; the most serious first principle acts worst. However, when the scarcity is relieved, there are no significant differences among the random, first come-first served, and least serious first principles, yet the most serious first principle still performs worst. Although the least serious first principle exhibits the highest efficiency, it is not ethically flawless. Considering the trade off between the lifesaving efficiency and the ethical issues, random selection is a relatively fair and efficient principle for allocating scarce medical resources in natural disaster responses.

Effects of calorie labeling and value size pricing on fast food meal choices: Results from an experimental trial

PubMed Central

Harnack, Lisa J; French, Simone A; Oakes, J Michael; Story, Mary T; Jeffery, Robert W; Rydell, Sarah A

2008-01-01

Background Although point-of-purchase calorie labeling at restaurants has been proposed as a strategy for improving consumer food choices, a limited number of studies have evaluated this approach. Likewise, little research has been conducted to evaluate the influence of value size pricing on restaurant meal choices. Methods To examine the effect of point-of-purchase calorie information and value size pricing on fast food meal choices a randomized 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted in which participants ordered a fast food meal from one of four menus that varied with respect to whether calorie information was provided and whether value size pricing was used. Study participants included 594 adolescents and adults who regularly ate at fast food restaurants. Study staff recorded the foods ordered and consumed by each participant. Participants also completed surveys to assess attitudes, beliefs and practices related to fast food and nutrition. Results No significant differences in the energy composition of meals ordered or eaten were found between menu conditions. The average energy content of meals ordered by those randomized to a menu that included calorie information and did not include value size pricing was 842 kcals compared with 827 kcals for those who ordered their meal from a menu that did not include calorie information but had value size pricing (control menu). Results were similar in most analyses conducted stratified by factors such as age, race and education level. Conclusion Additional research is needed to better evaluate the effects of calorie labeling and value size pricing on fast food meal choices. Studies in which participants are repeatedly exposed to these factors are needed since long term exposure may be required for behavior change. PMID:19061510

Effects of calorie labeling and value size pricing on fast food meal choices: results from an experimental trial.

PubMed

Harnack, Lisa J; French, Simone A; Oakes, J Michael; Story, Mary T; Jeffery, Robert W; Rydell, Sarah A

2008-12-05

Although point-of-purchase calorie labeling at restaurants has been proposed as a strategy for improving consumer food choices, a limited number of studies have evaluated this approach. Likewise, little research has been conducted to evaluate the influence of value size pricing on restaurant meal choices. To examine the effect of point-of-purchase calorie information and value size pricing on fast food meal choices a randomized 2 x 2 factorial experiment was conducted in which participants ordered a fast food meal from one of four menus that varied with respect to whether calorie information was provided and whether value size pricing was used. Study participants included 594 adolescents and adults who regularly ate at fast food restaurants. Study staff recorded the foods ordered and consumed by each participant. Participants also completed surveys to assess attitudes, beliefs and practices related to fast food and nutrition. No significant differences in the energy composition of meals ordered or eaten were found between menu conditions. The average energy content of meals ordered by those randomized to a menu that included calorie information and did not include value size pricing was 842 kcals compared with 827 kcals for those who ordered their meal from a menu that did not include calorie information but had value size pricing (control menu). Results were similar in most analyses conducted stratified by factors such as age, race and education level. Additional research is needed to better evaluate the effects of calorie labeling and value size pricing on fast food meal choices. Studies in which participants are repeatedly exposed to these factors are needed since long term exposure may be required for behavior change.

Improved Lower Bounds on the Price of Stability of Undirected Network Design Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilò, Vittorio; Caragiannis, Ioannis; Fanelli, Angelo; Monaco, Gianpiero

Bounding the price of stability of undirected network design games with fair cost allocation is a challenging open problem in the Algorithmic Game Theory research agenda. Even though the generalization of such games in directed networks is well understood in terms of the price of stability (it is exactly H n , the n-th harmonic number, for games with n players), far less is known for network design games in undirected networks. The upper bound carries over to this case as well while the best known lower bound is 42/23 ≈ 1.826. For more restricted but interesting variants of such games such as broadcast and multicast games, sublogarithmic upper bounds are known while the best known lower bound is 12/7 ≈ 1.714. In the current paper, we improve the lower bounds as follows. We break the psychological barrier of 2 by showing that the price of stability of undirected network design games is at least 348/155 ≈ 2.245. Our proof uses a recursive construction of a network design game with a simple gadget as the main building block. For broadcast and multicast games, we present new lower bounds of 20/11 ≈ 1.818 and 1.862, respectively.

Encouraging the use of generic medicines: implications for transition economies.

PubMed

King, Derek R; Kanavos, Panos

2002-08-01

Generic drugs have a key role to play in the efficient allocation of financial resources for pharmaceutical medicines. Policies implemented in the countries with a high rate of generic drug use, such as Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, are reviewed, with consideration of the market structures that facilitate strong competition. Savings in these countries are realized through increases in the volume of generic drugs used and the frequently significant differences in the price between generic medicines and branded originator medicines. Their policy tools include the mix of supply-side measures and demand-side measures that are relevant for generic promotion and higher generic use. On the supply-side, key policy measures include generic drug marketing regulation that facilitates market entry soon after patent expiration, reference pricing, the pricing of branded originator products, and the degree of price competition in pharmaceutical markets. On the demand-side, measures typically encompass influencing prescribing and dispensing patterns as well as introducing a co-payment structure for consumers/patients that takes into consideration the difference in cost between branded and generic medicines. Quality of generic medicines is a pre-condition for all other measures discussed to take effect. The paper concludes by offering a list of policy options for decision-makers in Central and Eastern European economies in transition.

Price dynamics of the financial markets using the stochastic differential equation for a potential double well

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, L. S.; Miranda, L. L. B.

2018-01-01

We have used the Itô's stochastic differential equation for the double well with additive white noise as a mathematical model for price dynamics of the financial market. We have presented a model which allows us to test within the same framework the comparative explanatory power of rational agents versus irrational agents, with respect to the facts of financial markets. We have obtained the mean price in terms of the β parameter that represents the force of the randomness term of the model.

Essays on pricing electricity and electricity derivatives in deregulated markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Popova, Julia

2008-10-01

This dissertation is composed of four essays on the behavior of wholesale electricity prices and their derivatives. The first essay provides an empirical model that takes into account the spatial features of a transmission network on the electricity market. The spatial structure of the transmission grid plays a key role in determining electricity prices, but it has not been incorporated into previous empirical models. The econometric model in this essay incorporates a simple representation of the transmission system into a spatial panel data model of electricity prices, and also accounts for the effect of dynamic transmission system constraints on electricity market integration. Empirical results using PJM data confirm the existence of spatial patterns in electricity prices and show that spatial correlation diminishes as transmission lines become more congested. The second essay develops and empirically tests a model of the influence of natural gas storage inventories on the electricity forward premium. I link a model of the effect of gas storage constraints on the higher moments of the distribution of electricity prices to a model of the effect of those moments on the forward premium. Empirical results using PJM data support the model's predictions that gas storage inventories sharply reduce the electricity forward premium when demand for electricity is high and space-heating demand for gas is low. The third essay examines the efficiency of PJM electricity markets. A market is efficient if prices reflect all relevant information, so that prices follow a random walk. The hypothesis of random walk is examined using empirical tests, including the Portmanteau, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, KPSS, and multiple variance ratio tests. The results are mixed though evidence of some level of market efficiency is found. The last essay investigates the possibility that previous researchers have drawn spurious conclusions based on classical unit root tests incorrectly applied to wholesale electricity prices. It is well known that electricity prices exhibit both cyclicity and high volatility which varies through time. Results indicate that heterogeneity in unconditional variance---which is not detected by classical unit root tests---may contribute to the appearance of non-stationarity.

Spatial taxation effects on regional coal economic activities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, C.W.; Labys, W.C.

1982-01-01

Taxation effects on resource production, consumption and prices are seldom evaluated especially in the field of spatial commodity modeling. The most commonly employed linear programming model has fixed-point estimated demands and capacity constraints; hence it makes taxation effects difficult to be modeled. The second type of resource allocation model, the interregional input-output models does not include a direct and explicit price mechanism. Therefore, it is not suitable for analyzing taxation effects. The third type or spatial commodity model has been econometric in nature. While such an approach has a good deal of flexibility in modeling political and non-economic variables, itmore » treats taxation (or tariff) effects loosely using only dummy variables, and, in many cases, must sacrifice the consistency criterion important for spatial commodity modeling. This leaves model builders only one legitimate choice for analyzing taxation effects: the quadratic programming model which explicitly allows the interplay of regional demand and supply relations via a continuous spatial price constructed by the authors related to the regional demand for and supply of coal from Appalachian markets.« less

The value of innovation under value-based pricing.

PubMed

Moreno, Santiago G; Ray, Joshua A

2016-01-01

The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the 'value of innovation' reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers.

The value of innovation under value-based pricing

PubMed Central

Moreno, Santiago G.; Ray, Joshua A.

2016-01-01

Objective The role of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) in incentivizing innovation is controversial. Critics of CEA argue that its use for pricing purposes disregards the ‘value of innovation’ reflected in new drug development, whereas supporters of CEA highlight that the value of innovation is already accounted for. Our objective in this article is to outline the limitations of the conventional CEA approach, while proposing an alternative method of evaluation that captures the value of innovation more accurately. Method The adoption of a new drug benefits present and future patients (with cost implications) for as long as the drug is part of clinical practice. Incidence patients and off-patent prices are identified as two key missing features preventing the conventional CEA approach from capturing 1) benefit to future patients and 2) future savings from off-patent prices. The proposed CEA approach incorporates these two features to derive the total lifetime value of an innovative drug (i.e., the value of innovation). Results The conventional CEA approach tends to underestimate the value of innovative drugs by disregarding the benefit to future patients and savings from off-patent prices. As a result, innovative drugs are underpriced, only allowing manufacturers to capture approximately 15% of the total value of innovation during the patent protection period. In addition to including the incidence population and off-patent price, the alternative approach proposes pricing new drugs by first negotiating the share of value of innovation to be appropriated by the manufacturer (>15%?) and payer (<85%?), in order to then identify the drug price that satisfies this condition. Conclusion We argue for a modification to the conventional CEA approach that integrates the total lifetime value of innovative drugs into CEA, by taking into account off-patent pricing and future patients. The proposed approach derives a price that allows manufacturers to capture an agreed share of this value, thereby incentivizing innovation, while supporting health-care systems to pursue dynamic allocative efficiency. However, the long-term sustainability of health-care systems must be assessed before this proposal is adopted by policy makers. PMID:27123192

On the Upward Bias of the Dissimilarity Index and Its Corrections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mazza, Angelo; Punzo, Antonio

2015-01-01

The dissimilarity index of Duncan and Duncan is widely used in a broad range of contexts to assess the overall extent of segregation in the allocation of two groups in two or more units. Its sensitivity to random allocation implies an upward bias with respect to the unknown amount of systematic segregation. In this article, following a multinomial…

Dynamic Quantum Allocation and Swap-Time Variability in Time-Sharing Operating Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bhat, U. Narayan; Nance, Richard E.

The effects of dynamic quantum allocation and swap-time variability on central processing unit (CPU) behavior are investigated using a model that allows both quantum length and swap-time to be state-dependent random variables. Effective CPU utilization is defined to be the proportion of a CPU busy period that is devoted to program processing, i.e.…

Space station operations task force. Panel 3 report: User development and integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1987-01-01

The User Development and Integration Panel of the Space Station Operations Task Force was chartered to develop concepts relating to the operations of the Space Station manned base and the platforms, user accommodation and integration activities. The needs of the user community are addressed in the context with the mature operations phase of the Space Station. Issues addressed include space station pricing options, marketing strategies, payload selection and resource allocation options, and manifesting techniques.

Price schedules coordination for electricity pool markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legbedji, Alexis Motto

2002-04-01

We consider the optimal coordination of a class of mathematical programs with equilibrium constraints, which is formally interpreted as a resource-allocation problem. Many decomposition techniques were proposed to circumvent the difficulty of solving large systems with limited computer resources. The considerable improvement in computer architecture has allowed the solution of large-scale problems with increasing speed. Consequently, interest in decomposition techniques has waned. Nonetheless, there is an important class of applications for which decomposition techniques will still be relevant, among others, distributed systems---the Internet, perhaps, being the most conspicuous example---and competitive economic systems. Conceptually, a competitive economic system is a collection of agents that have similar or different objectives while sharing the same system resources. In theory, constructing a large-scale mathematical program and solving it centrally, using currently available computing power can optimize such systems of agents. In practice, however, because agents are self-interested and not willing to reveal some sensitive corporate data, one cannot solve these kinds of coordination problems by simply maximizing the sum of agent's objective functions with respect to their constraints. An iterative price decomposition or Lagrangian dual method is considered best suited because it can operate with limited information. A price-directed strategy, however, can only work successfully when coordinating or equilibrium prices exist, which is not generally the case when a weak duality is unavoidable. Showing when such prices exist and how to compute them is the main subject of this thesis. Among our results, we show that, if the Lagrangian function of a primal program is additively separable, price schedules coordination may be attained. The prices are Lagrange multipliers, and are also the decision variables of a dual program. In addition, we propose a new form of augmented or nonlinear pricing, which is an example of the use of penalty functions in mathematical programming. Applications are drawn from mathematical programming problems of the form arising in electric power system scheduling under competition.

Crop Monitoring as a Tool for Modelling the Genesis of Millet Prices in Senegal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacques, D.; Marinho, E.; Defourny, P.; Waldner, F.; d'Andrimont, R.

2015-12-01

Food security in Sahelian countries strongly relies on the ability of markets to transfer staplesfrom surplus to deficit areas. Market failures, leading to the inefficient geographical allocation of food,are expected to emerge from high transportation costs and information asymmetries that are commonin moderately developed countries. As a result, important price differentials are observed betweenproducing and consuming areas which damages both poor producers and food insecure consumers. Itis then vital for policy makers to understand how the prices of agricultural commodities are formed byaccounting for the existing market imperfections in addition to local demand and supply considerations. To address this issue, we have gathered an unique and diversified set of data for Senegal andintegrated it in a spatially explicit model that simulates the functioning of agricultural markets, that isfully consistent with the economic theory. Our departure point is a local demand and supply modelaround each market having its catchment areas determined by the road network. We estimate the localsupply of agricultural commodities from satellite imagery while the demand is assumed to be a functionof the population living in the area. From this point on, profitable transactions between areas with lowprices to areas with high prices are simulated for different levels of per kilometer transportation costand information flows (derived from call details records i.e. mobile phone data). The simulated prices are then comparedwith the actual millet prices. Despite the parsimony of the model that estimates only two parameters, i.e. the per kilometertransportation cost and the information asymmetry resulting from low levels of mobile phone activitybetween markets, it impressively explains more than 80% of the price differentials observed in the 40markets included in the analysis. In one hand these results can be used in the assessment of the socialwelfare impacts of the further development of both road and mobile phone networks in the country. Onthe other hand, the model could be further developed as a precious tool for the prediction of futurestaple prices in the country.

Disasters and market response: An economists perspective on the management of urban emergencies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Horwich, G.

1989-01-01

This study examines the de facto and potential role of markets in disaster anticipation and response. Disasters are defined as any decline in the value of economic resources beyond some socially determined threshold, which varies directly with space and time. In this framework the oil shocks of the 1970s and 1980, which imposed a new regime of relative prices and hence significant losses in the value of the pre-existing allocation of resources, qualify as a disaster. In the United States, government-imposed price ceilings and mandatory allocations delayed the necessary adjustment and added to the total costs of the shock; normore » did they increase social equity in terms of commonly accepted criteria. Free markets have played a major role in the demobilization and recovery following wars, which are disasters of massive proportions. Sociological evidence indicates that individuals rarely panic in the aftermath of disasters and usually respond effectively at a grass roots level; centrally dictated responses and external donations tend not to be sensitive to local conditions or desires. Markets are seen as an institutional supplement and magnifier of spontaneous individual and community adaptive behavior. Government can facilitate the contribution of markets by limiting its own role to coordination and procurement, rather than production, of goods and services obtainable from contestable markets. 41 refs.« less

Free and Reduced-Price Meal Application and Income Verification Practices in School Nutrition Programs in the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kwon, Junehee; Lee, Yee Ming; Park, Eunhye; Wang, Yujia; Rushing, Keith

2017-01-01

Purpose/Objectives: This study assessed current practices and attitudes of school nutrition program (SNP) management staff regarding free and reduced-price (F-RP) meal application and verification in SNPs. Methods: Stratified, randomly selected 1,500 SNP management staff in 14 states received a link to an online questionnaire and/or a printed…

An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houde, Jean-Francois

In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

Empirical validation of an agent-based model of wood markets in Switzerland

PubMed Central

Hilty, Lorenz M.; Lemm, Renato; Thees, Oliver

2018-01-01

We present an agent-based model of wood markets and show our efforts to validate this model using empirical data from different sources, including interviews, workshops, experiments, and official statistics. Own surveys closed gaps where data was not available. Our approach to model validation used a variety of techniques, including the replication of historical production amounts, prices, and survey results, as well as a historical case study of a large sawmill entering the market and becoming insolvent only a few years later. Validating the model using this case provided additional insights, showing how the model can be used to simulate scenarios of resource availability and resource allocation. We conclude that the outcome of the rigorous validation qualifies the model to simulate scenarios concerning resource availability and allocation in our study region. PMID:29351300

Budget Allocation in a Competitive Communication Spectrum Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ming-Hua; Tsai, Jung-Fa; Ye, Yinyu

2009-12-01

This study discusses how to adjust "monetary budget" to meet each user's physical power demand, or balance all individual utilities in a competitive "spectrum market" of a communication system. In the market, multiple users share a common frequency or tone band and each of them uses the budget to purchase its own transmit power spectra (taking others as given) in maximizing its Shannon utility or pay-off function that includes the effect of interferences. A market equilibrium is a budget allocation, price spectrum, and tone power distribution that independently and simultaneously maximizes each user's utility. The equilibrium conditions of the market are formulated and analyzed, and the existence of an equilibrium is proved. Computational results and comparisons between the competitive equilibrium and Nash equilibrium solutions are also presented, which show that the competitive market equilibrium solution often provides more efficient power distribution.

Intelligent energy allocation strategy for PHEV charging station using gravitational search algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Imran; Vasant, Pandian M.; Singh, Balbir Singh Mahinder; Abdullah-Al-Wadud, M.

2014-10-01

Recent researches towards the use of green technologies to reduce pollution and increase penetration of renewable energy sources in the transportation sector are gaining popularity. The development of the smart grid environment focusing on PHEVs may also heal some of the prevailing grid problems by enabling the implementation of Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) concept. Intelligent energy management is an important issue which has already drawn much attention to researchers. Most of these works require formulation of mathematical models which extensively use computational intelligence-based optimization techniques to solve many technical problems. Higher penetration of PHEVs require adequate charging infrastructure as well as smart charging strategies. We used Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) to intelligently allocate energy to the PHEVs considering constraints such as energy price, remaining battery capacity, and remaining charging time.

A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial Testing the Effectiveness of Houvast: A Strengths-Based Intervention for Homeless Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krabbenborg, Manon A. M.; Boersma, Sandra N.; van der Veld, William M.; van Hulst, Bente; Vollebergh, Wilma A. M.; Wolf, Judith R. L. M.

2017-01-01

Objective: To test the effectiveness of Houvast: a strengths-based intervention for homeless young adults. Method: A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted with 10 Dutch shelter facilities randomly allocated to an intervention and a control group. Homeless young adults were interviewed when entering the facility and when care ended.…

Cost-effectiveness of an adjustment group for people with multiple sclerosis and low mood: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Humphreys, Ioan; Drummond, Avril E R; Phillips, Ceri; Lincoln, Nadina B

2013-11-01

To evaluate the cost effectiveness of a psychological adjustment group shown to be clinically effective in comparison with usual care for people with multiple sclerosis. Randomized controlled trial with comparison of costs and calculation of incremental cost effectiveness ratio. Community. People with multiple sclerosis were screened on the General Health Questionnaire 12 and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, and those with low mood were recruited. Participants randomly allocated to the adjustment group received six group treatment sessions. The control group received usual care, which did not include psychological interventions. Outcomes were assessed four and eight months after randomization, blind to group allocation. The costs were assessed from a service use questionnaire and information provided on medication. Quality of life was assessed using the EQ-5D. Of the 311 patients identified, 221 (71%) met the criteria for having low mood. Of these, 72 were randomly allocated to receive treatment and 79 to usual care. Over eight months follow-up there was a decrease in the combined average costs of £378 per intervention respondent and an increase in the costs of £297 per patient in the control group, which was a significant difference (p=0.03). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio indicated that the cost per point reduction on the Beck depression inventory-II was £118. In the short term, the adjustment group programme was cost effective when compared with usual care, for people with multiple sclerosis presenting with low mood. The longer-term costs need to be assessed.

Mentalization-based therapy for parents in entrenched conflict: A random allocation feasibility study.

PubMed

Hertzmann, Leezah; Target, Mary; Hewison, David; Casey, Polly; Fearon, Pasco; Lassri, Dana

2016-12-01

To explore the effectiveness of a mentalization-based therapeutic intervention specifically developed for parents in entrenched conflict over their children. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first randomized controlled intervention study in the United Kingdom to work with both parents postseparation, and the first to focus on mentalization in this situation. Using a mixed-methods study design, 30 parents were randomly allocated to either mentalization-based therapy for parental conflict-Parenting Together, or the Parents' Group, a psycho-educational intervention for separated parents based on elements of the Separated Parents Information Program-part of the U.K. Family Justice System and approximating to treatment as usual. Given the challenges of recruiting parents in these difficult circumstances, the sample size was small and permitted only the detection of large differences between conditions. The data, involving repeated measures of related individuals, was explored statistically, using hierarchical linear modeling, and qualitatively. Significant findings were reported on the main predicted outcomes, with clinically important trends on other measures. Qualitative findings further contributed to the understanding of parents' subjective experience, pre- and posttreatment. Findings indicate that a larger scale randomized controlled trial would be worthwhile. These encouraging findings shed light on the dynamics maintaining these high-conflict situations known to be damaging to children. We established that both forms of intervention were acceptable to most parents, and we were able to operate a random allocation design with extensive quantitative and qualitative assessments of the kind that would make a larger-scale trial feasible and productive. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Are energy-dense foods really cheaper? Reexamining the relation between food price and energy density.

PubMed

Lipsky, Leah M

2009-11-01

The inverse relation between energy density (kcal/g) and energy cost (price/kcal) has been interpreted to suggest that produce (fruit, vegetables) is more expensive than snacks (cookies, chips). The objective of this study was to show the methodologic weakness of comparing energy density with energy cost. The relation between energy density and energy cost was replicated in a random-number data set. Additionally, observational data were collected for produce and snacks from an online supermarket. Variables included total energy (kcal), total weight (g), total number of servings, serving size (g/serving), and energy density (kcal/g). Price measures included energy cost ($/kcal), total price ($), unit price ($/g), and serving price ($/serving). Two-tailed t tests were used to compare price measures by food category. Relations between energy density and price measures within food categories were examined with the use of Spearman rank correlation analysis. The relation between energy density and energy cost was shown to be driven by the algebraic properties of these variables. Food category was strongly correlated with both energy density and food price measures. Energy cost was higher for produce than for snacks. However, total price and unit price were lower for produce. Serving price and serving size were greater for produce than for snacks. Within food categories, energy density was uncorrelated with most measures of food price, except for a weak positive correlation with serving price within the produce category. The findings suggest the relation between energy density and food price is confounded by food category and depends on which measure of price is used.

Do follow-on therapeutic substitutes induce price competition between hospital medicines? Evidence from the Danish hospital sector.

PubMed

Hostenkamp, Gisela

2013-06-01

The pricing of follow-on drugs, that offer only limited health benefits over existing therapeutic alternatives, is a recurring health policy debate. This study investigates whether follow-on therapeutic substitutes create price competition between branded hospital medicines. New follow-on drugs and their incumbent therapeutic competitors were identified from Danish sales and product registration data on hospital pharmaceuticals using medically relevant criteria. We examined whether follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors, and whether incumbent competitors react to entry of follow-ons through price adjustments using a random intercept panel model. We found no evidence that follow-on drugs adopt lower prices than their incumbent competitors. Furthermore, potentially due to low sample size, we found no evidence that prices for incumbent pioneer products were significantly reduced as a reaction to competition from follow-on drugs. Competition between patented therapeutic substitutes did not seem to increase price competition and containment of pharmaceutical expenditures in the Danish hospital market. Strengthening hospitals' incentives to consider the price of alternative treatment options paired with a more active formulary management may increase price competition between therapeutic substitutes in the Danish hospital sector in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Age-Related Changes in Temporal Allocation of Visual Attention: Evidence from the Rapid Serial Visual Presentation (RSVP) Paradigm

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berger, Carole; Valdois, Sylviane; Lallier, Marie; Donnadieu, Sophie

2015-01-01

The present study explored the temporal allocation of attention in groups of 8-year-old children, 10-year-old children, and adults performing a rapid serial visual presentation task. In a dual-condition task, participants had to detect a briefly presented target (T2) after identifying an initial target (T1) embedded in a random series of…

The Quantitative Effect of Students Using Podcasts in a First Year Undergraduate Exercise Physiology Module

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abt, Grant; Barry, Tim

2007-01-01

This study reports the quantitative effect of students using podcasts in a 1st year undergraduate exercise physiology module. From a cohort of 70 students, 50 volunteered and completed the study. Using a pre-post random allocation research design, students were allocated to either a podcast group (PG) or control group (CG) based on a 32-question…

Enhancements and Algorithms for Avionic Information Processing System Design Methodology.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-16

programming algorithm is enhanced by incorporating task precedence constraints and hardware failures. Stochastic network methods are used to analyze...allocations in the presence of random fluctuations. Graph theoretic methods are used to analyze hardware designs, and new designs are constructed with...There, spatial dynamic programming (SDP) was used to solve a static, deterministic software allocation problem. Under the current contract the SDP

Randomised clinical trial of strategies for improving medication compliance in primary hypertension.

PubMed

Sackett, D L; Haynes, R B; Gibson, E S; Hackett, B C; Taylor, D W; Roberts, R S; Johnson, A L

1975-05-31

230 Canadian steelworkers with hypertension took part in a randomised trial to see if compliance with antihypertensive drug regimens could be improved. For care and follow-up these men were randomly allocated to see either their own family doctors outside working-hours or industrial physicians during work shifts; the same men were randomly allocated to receive or not receive an educational programme aimed at instructing them about hypertension and its treatment. Surprisingly, the convenience of follow-up at work had no effect upon these men's compliance with antihypertensive drug regimens. Similarly, although men receiving health education learned a lot about hypertension, they were not more likely to take their medicine.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2009-01-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing - 2nd Edition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe; Potters, Marc

2003-12-01

Foreword; Preface; 1. Probability theory: basic notions; 2. Maximum and addition of random variables; 3. Continuous time limit, Ito calculus and path integrals; 4. Analysis of empirical data; 5. Financial products and financial markets; 6. Statistics of real prices: basic results; 7. Non-linear correlations and volatility fluctuations; 8. Skewness and price-volatility correlations; 9. Cross-correlations; 10. Risk measures; 11. Extreme correlations and variety; 12. Optimal portfolios; 13. Futures and options: fundamental concepts; 14. Options: hedging and residual risk; 15. Options: the role of drift and correlations; 16. Options: the Black and Scholes model; 17. Options: some more specific problems; 18. Options: minimum variance Monte-Carlo; 19. The yield curve; 20. Simple mechanisms for anomalous price statistics; Index of most important symbols; Index.

IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL PRICING POLICIES ON ACCESS TO INNOVATIVE DRUGS: THE CASE OF TRASTUZUMAB IN SEVEN LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES.

PubMed

Pichon-Riviere, Andres; Garay, Osvaldo Ulises; Augustovski, Federico; Vallejos, Carlos; Huayanay, Leandro; Bueno, Maria del Pilar Navia; Rodriguez, Alarico; de Andrade, Carlos José Coelho; Buendía, Jefferson Antonio; Drummond, Michael

2015-01-01

Differential pricing, based on countries' purchasing power, is recommended by the World Health Organization to secure affordable medicines. However, in developing countries innovative drugs often have similar or even higher prices than in high-income countries. We evaluated the potential implications of trastuzumab global pricing policies in terms of cost-effectiveness (CE), coverage, and accessibility for patients with breast cancer in Latin America (LA). A Markov model was designed to estimate life-years (LYs), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs from a healthcare perspective. To better fit local cancer prognosis, a base case scenario using transition probabilities from clinical trials was complemented with two alternative scenarios with transition probabilities adjusted to reflect breast cancer epidemiology in each country. Incremental discounted benefits ranged from 0.87 to 1.00 LY and 0.51 to 0.60 QALY and incremental CE ratios from USD 42,104 to USD 110,283 per QALY (2012 U.S. dollars), equivalent to 3.6 gross domestic product per capita (GDPPC) per QALY in Uruguay and to 35.5 GDPPC in Bolivia. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 0 percent probability that trastuzumab is CE if the willingness-to-pay threshold is one GDPPC per QALY, and remained so at three GDPPC threshold except for Chile and Uruguay (4.3 percent and 26.6 percent, respectively). Trastuzumab price would need to decrease between 69.6 percent to 94.9 percent to became CE in LA. Although CE in other settings, trastuzumab was not CE in LA. The use of health technology assessment to prioritize resource allocation and support price negotiations is critical to making innovative drugs available and affordable in developing countries.

Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2016-03-01

The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 1: introduction: two historical lineages.

PubMed

Bärnighausen, Till; Røttingen, John-Arne; Rockers, Peter; Shemilt, Ian; Tugwell, Peter

2017-09-01

The objective of this study was to contrast the historical development of experiments and quasi-experiments and provide the motivation for a journal series on quasi-experimental designs in health research. A short historical narrative, with concrete examples, and arguments based on an understanding of the practice of health research and evidence synthesis. Health research has played a key role in developing today's gold standard for causal inference-the randomized controlled multiply blinded trial. Historically, allocation approaches developed from convenience and purposive allocation to alternate and, finally, to random allocation. This development was motivated both by concerns for manipulation in allocation as well as statistical and theoretical developments demonstrating the power of randomization in creating counterfactuals for causal inference. In contrast to the sequential development of experiments, quasi-experiments originated at very different points in time, from very different scientific perspectives, and with frequent and long interruptions in their methodological development. Health researchers have only recently started to recognize the value of quasi-experiments for generating novel insights on causal relationships. While quasi-experiments are unlikely to replace experiments in generating the efficacy and safety evidence required for clinical guidelines and regulatory approval of medical technologies, quasi-experiments can play an important role in establishing the effectiveness of health care practice, programs, and policies. The papers in this series describe and discuss a range of important issues in utilizing quasi-experimental designs for primary research and quasi-experimental results for evidence synthesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets.

PubMed

Forró, Z; Woodard, R; Sornette, D

2015-04-01

We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

Price of anarchy is maximized at the percolation threshold.

PubMed

Skinner, Brian

2015-05-01

When many independent users try to route traffic through a network, the flow can easily become suboptimal as a consequence of congestion of the most efficient paths. The degree of this suboptimality is quantified by the so-called price of anarchy (POA), but so far there are no general rules for when to expect a large POA in a random network. Here I address this question by introducing a simple model of flow through a network with randomly placed congestible and incongestible links. I show that the POA is maximized precisely when the fraction of congestible links matches the percolation threshold of the lattice. Both the POA and the total cost demonstrate critical scaling near the percolation threshold.

Using trading strategies to detect phase transitions in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forró, Z.; Woodard, R.; Sornette, D.

2015-04-01

We show that the log-periodic power law singularity model (LPPLS), a mathematical embodiment of positive feedbacks between agents and of their hierarchical dynamical organization, has a significant predictive power in financial markets. We find that LPPLS-based strategies significantly outperform the randomized ones and that they are robust with respect to a large selection of assets and time periods. The dynamics of prices thus markedly deviate from randomness in certain pockets of predictability that can be associated with bubble market regimes. Our hybrid approach, marrying finance with the trading strategies, and critical phenomena with LPPLS, demonstrates that targeting information related to phase transitions enables the forecast of financial bubbles and crashes punctuating the dynamics of prices.

Sustained economic benefits of resistance training in community-dwelling senior women.

PubMed

Davis, Jennifer C; Marra, Carlo A; Robertson, M Clare; Najafzadeh, Mehdi; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2011-07-01

To determine whether the health and cost benefits of resistance training were sustained 12 months after formal cessation of the intervention. Cost-utility analysis conducted alongside a randomized controlled trial. Community-dwelling women aged 65 to 75 living in Vancouver, British Columbia. One hundred twenty-three of the 155 community-dwelling women aged 65 to 75 years who originally were randomly allocated to once-weekly resistance training (n=54), twice-weekly resistance training (n=52), or twice-weekly balance and tone exercises (control group; n=49) participated in the 12-month follow-up study. Of these, 98 took part in the economic evaluation (twice-weekly balance and tone exercises, n=28; once-weekly resistance training, n=35; twice-weekly resistance training, n=35). The primary outcome measure was incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Healthcare resource utilization was assessed over 21 months (2009 prices); health status was assessed using the EuroQol-5D to calculate QALYs using a 21-month time horizon. Once- and twice-weekly resistance training were less costly than balance and tone classes, with incremental mean healthcare costs of Canadian dollars (CAD$)1,857 and CAD$1,077, respectively. The incremental QALYs for once- and twice-weekly resistance training were -0.051 and -0.081, respectively, compared with balance and tone exercises. The cost benefits of participating in a 12-month resistance training intervention were sustained for the once- and twice-weekly resistance training group, whereas the health benefits were not. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

Perceived price sensitivity by ethnicity and smoking frequency among California Hispanic and non-Hispanic white smokers.

PubMed

Myers, Mark G; Edland, Steven D; Hofstetter, C Richard; Al-Delaimy, Wael K

2013-06-01

Little is currently known about price sensitivity across ethnic groups as well as for non-daily smokers. To address this issue, this study compared perceived price sensitivity across smoking status (daily and non-daily) and within ethnicity (Hispanic and non-Hispanic White) in a recent representative population survey of California smokers. This study employed data from the 2008 California Tobacco Survey (CTS), a large population-based random-digit-dialed telephone survey. Participants were 1,777 non-Hispanic White and 450 Hispanic respondents who had smoked at least 100 cigarettes and currently smoked daily or on some days. Differences in perceived price sensitivity were found by ethnicity when controlling for age, gender, and cigarette consumption. Comparisons across ethnic groups indicated that Hispanic smokers, in general, have more price-sensitive perceptions than non-Hispanic White smokers. However, daily versus non-daily status had no effect on price sensitivity when controlling for cigarette quantity. These findings indicate that pricing increases may be differentially influential for Hispanic compared with non-Hispanic White smokers across smoking status categories.

[Non-randomized evaluation studies (TREND)].

PubMed

Vallvé, Carles; Artés, Maite; Cobo, Erik

2005-12-01

Nonrandomized intervention trials are needed when randomized clinical trials cannot be performed. To report the results from nonrandomized intervention studies transparently, the TREND (Transparent Reporting of Evaluations with Nonrandomized Designs) checklist should be used. This implies that nonrandomized studies should follow the remaining methodological tools usually employed in randomized trials and that the uncertainty introduced by the allocation mechanism should be explicitly reported and, if possible, quantified.

Examining the Minimal Required Elements of a Computer-Tailored Intervention Aimed at Dietary Fat Reduction: Results of a Randomized Controlled Dismantling Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kroeze, Willemieke; Oenema, Anke; Dagnelie, Pieter C.; Brug, Johannes

2008-01-01

This study investigated the minimally required feedback elements of a computer-tailored dietary fat reduction intervention to be effective in improving fat intake. In all 588 Healthy Dutch adults were randomly allocated to one of four conditions in an randomized controlled trial: (i) feedback on dietary fat intake [personal feedback (P feedback)],…

Random Measurement Error as a Source of Discrepancies between the Reports of Wives and Husbands Concerning Marital Power and Task Allocation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Quarm, Daisy

1981-01-01

Findings for couples (N=119) show wife's work, money, and spare time low between-spouse correlations are due in part to random measurement error. Suggests that increasing reliability of measures by creating multi-item indices can also increase correlations. Car purchase, vacation, and child discipline were not accounted for by random measurement…

Optimizing conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater resources with stochastic dynamic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

2014-05-01

Optimal management of conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been attempted with different algorithms in the literature. In this study, a hydro-economic modelling approach to optimize conjunctive use of scarce surface water and groundwater resources under uncertainty is presented. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach is used to minimize the basin-wide total costs arising from water allocations and water curtailments. Dynamic allocation problems with inclusion of groundwater resources proved to be more complex to solve with SDP than pure surface water allocation problems due to head-dependent pumping costs. These dynamic pumping costs strongly affect the total costs and can lead to non-convexity of the future cost function. The water user groups (agriculture, industry, domestic) are characterized by inelastic demands and fixed water allocation and water supply curtailment costs. As in traditional SDP approaches, one step-ahead sub-problems are solved to find the optimal management at any time knowing the inflow scenario and reservoir/aquifer storage levels. These non-linear sub-problems are solved using a genetic algorithm (GA) that minimizes the sum of the immediate and future costs for given surface water reservoir and groundwater aquifer end storages. The immediate cost is found by solving a simple linear allocation sub-problem, and the future costs are assessed by interpolation in the total cost matrix from the following time step. Total costs for all stages, reservoir states, and inflow scenarios are used as future costs to drive a forward moving simulation under uncertain water availability. The use of a GA to solve the sub-problems is computationally more costly than a traditional SDP approach with linearly interpolated future costs. However, in a two-reservoir system the future cost function would have to be represented by a set of planes, and strict convexity in both the surface water and groundwater dimension cannot be maintained. The optimization framework based on the GA is still computationally feasible and represents a clean and customizable method. The method has been applied to the Ziya River basin, China. The basin is located on the North China Plain and is subject to severe water scarcity, which includes surface water droughts and groundwater over-pumping. The head-dependent groundwater pumping costs will enable assessment of the long-term effects of increased electricity prices on the groundwater pumping. The coupled optimization framework is used to assess realistic alternative development scenarios for the basin. In particular the potential for using electricity pricing policies to reach sustainable groundwater pumping is investigated.

Industrial Preparedness in an Arms Control Environment: A Study of the Potential Impact of Sharp Increases in Military Procurement. Volume 2. Complete Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-12-01

military expenditures • Attitude toward increased taxation or reduction in federal budget expenditures • Willingness to experience governmental controls...if allocation, rationing, wane and price con- trols, and increased taxation arc not resorted to, as was case in the early of the Vietnam War...n incor; \\ into thv malysi . • Financing through taxation would allow g< non-defense spending to continue unaltered. 39 ACDA/MEA-24 6

A Dexterous Optional Randomized Response Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tarray, Tanveer A.; Singh, Housila P.; Yan, Zaizai

2017-01-01

This article addresses the problem of estimating the proportion Pi[subscript S] of the population belonging to a sensitive group using optional randomized response technique in stratified sampling based on Mangat model that has proportional and Neyman allocation and larger gain in efficiency. Numerically, it is found that the suggested model is…

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-08-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is "statistically significant." On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are "insignificant." Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

Predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to future price increases. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

PubMed

Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K Michael

2011-06-01

Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers' expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

Predictors of What Smokers Say They Will Do in Response to Future Price Increases. Findings From the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey

PubMed Central

Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K. Michael

2011-01-01

Introduction: Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Methods: Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. Results: The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. Conclusions: The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers’ expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys. PMID:21385909

Dynamic fair node spectrum allocation for ad hoc networks using random matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmes, Mark; Lemieux, George; Chester, Dave; Sonnenberg, Jerry

2015-05-01

Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA) is widely seen as a solution to the problem of limited spectrum, because of its ability to adapt the operating frequency of a radio. Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (MANETs) can extend high-capacity mobile communications over large areas where fixed and tethered-mobile systems are not available. In one use case with high potential impact, cognitive radio employs spectrum sensing to facilitate the identification of allocated frequencies not currently accessed by their primary users. Primary users own the rights to radiate at a specific frequency and geographic location, while secondary users opportunistically attempt to radiate at a specific frequency when the primary user is not using it. We populate a spatial radio environment map (REM) database with known information that can be leveraged in an ad hoc network to facilitate fair path use of the DSA-discovered links. Utilization of high-resolution geospatial data layers in RF propagation analysis is directly applicable. Random matrix theory (RMT) is useful in simulating network layer usage in nodes by a Wishart adjacency matrix. We use the Dijkstra algorithm for discovering ad hoc network node connection patterns. We present a method for analysts to dynamically allocate node-node path and link resources using fair division. User allocation of limited resources as a function of time must be dynamic and based on system fairness policies. The context of fair means that first available request for an asset is not envied as long as it is not yet allocated or tasked in order to prevent cycling of the system. This solution may also save money by offering a Pareto efficient repeatable process. We use a water fill queue algorithm to include Shapley value marginal contributions for allocation.

A mindfulness-based stress prevention training for medical students (MediMind): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Kuhlmann, Sophie Merle; Bürger, Arne; Esser, Günter; Hammerle, Florian

2015-02-08

Medical training is very demanding and associated with a high prevalence of psychological distress. Compared to the general population, medical students are at a greater risk of developing a psychological disorder. Various attempts of stress management training in medical school have achieved positive results on minimizing psychological distress; however, there are often limitations. Therefore, the use of a rigorous scientific method is needed. The present study protocol describes a randomized controlled trial to examine the effectiveness of a specifically developed mindfulness-based stress prevention training for medical students that includes selected elements of cognitive behavioral strategies (MediMind). This study protocol presents a prospective randomized controlled trial, involving four assessment time points: baseline, post-intervention, one-year follow-up and five-year follow-up. The aims include evaluating the effect on stress, coping, psychological morbidity and personality traits with validated measures. Participants are allocated randomly to one of three conditions: MediMind, Autogenic Training or control group. Eligible participants are medical or dental students in the second or eighth semester of a German university. They form a population of approximately 420 students in each academic term. A final total sample size of 126 (at five-year follow-up) is targeted. The trainings (MediMind and Autogenic Training) comprise five weekly sessions lasting 90 minutes each. MediMind will be offered to participants of the control group once the five-year follow-up is completed. The allotment is randomized with a stratified allocation ratio by course of studies, semester, and gender. After descriptive statistics have been evaluated, inferential statistical analysis will be carried out with a repeated measures ANOVA-design with interactions between time and group. Effect sizes will be calculated using partial η-square values. Potential limitations of this study are voluntary participation and the risk of attrition, especially concerning participants that are allocated to the control group. Strengths are the study design, namely random allocation, follow-up assessment, the use of control groups and inclusion of participants at different stages of medical training with the possibility of differential analysis. This trial is recorded at German Clinical Trials Register under the number DRKS00005354 (08 November 2013).

Fuel, environmental, and transmission pricing considerations in a deregulated environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obessis, Emmanouil Vlassios

The 1992 National Energy Policy Act drastically changed the traditional structure of the vertically integrated utility. To facilitate increased competition in the power utility sector, all markets related to power generation have been opened to free competition and trading. To survive in the new competitive environment, power producers need to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Fuel marketing strategies are thus, getting more aggressive and fuel markets are becoming more competitive, offering more options regarding fuel supplies and contracts. At the same time, the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments are taking effect. Although tightening the emission standards, this legislation offers utilities a wider flexibility in choosing compliance strategies. It also set maximum annual allowable levels replacing the traditional uniform maximum emission rates. The bill also introduced the concept of marketable emission allowances and provided for the establishment of nationwide markets where allowances may be traded, sold, or purchased. Several fuel- and emission-constrained algorithms have been historically presented, but those two classes of constraints, in general, were handled independently. The multiobjective optimization model developed in this research work, concurrently satisfies sets of detailed fuel and emission limits, modeling in a more accurate way the fuel supply and environmental limitations and their complexities in the new deregulated operational environment. Development of the implementation software is an integral part of this research project. This software may be useful for both daily scheduling activities and short-term operational planning. A Lagrangian multipliers-based variant is used to solve the problem. Single line searches are used to update the multipliers, thus offering attractive execution times. This work also investigates the applicability of cooperative games to the problem of transmission cost allocation. Interest in game theory as a powerful tool to solve common property allocation problems has been renewed. A simple allocation framework is developed using capacity based costing rules. Different solution concepts are applied to solve small scale transmission pricing problems. Game models may render themselves useful in investigating "what if" scenarios.

Comparison of the Ministry of Health’s tariffs with the cost of radiology services using the activity-based costing method

PubMed Central

Kalhor, Rohollah; Amini, Saeed; Emami, Majid; Kakasoltani, Keivan; Rhamani, Nasim; Kalhor, Leila

2016-01-01

Introduction Efficient use of resources in organizations is one of the most important duties of managers. Appropriate allocation of resources can help managers to do this well. The aim of this study was to determine the cost of radiology services and to compare it with governmental tariffs (introduced by the Ministry of Health in Iran). Methods This was a descriptive and applied study that was conducted using the retrospective approach. First, activity centers were identified on the basis of five main groups of hospital activities. Then, resources and resource drivers, activities, and hospital activity drivers were identified. At the next step, the activities related to the delivery of radiology process were identified. Last, through allocation of activities cost to the cost objects, the cost price of 66 services that were delivered in the radiology department were calculated. The data were collected by making checklists, using the hospital’s information system, observations, and interviews. Finally, the data were analyzed using the non-parametric Wilcoxon test, Microsoft Excel, and SPSS software, version 18. Results The findings showed that from the total cost of wages, materials, and overhead obtained, the unit cost of the 66 cost objects (delivered services) in the Radiology Department were calculated using the ABC method (Price of each unit of Nephrostogram obtained $15.8 and Cystogram obtained $18.4). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicated that the distribution of data of cost price using the ABC method was not normal (p = 0.000). The Wilcoxon test showed that there was a significant difference between the cost of services and the tariff of radiology services (p = 0.000). Conclusions The cost of delivered services in radiology departments was significantly higher than approved tariffs of the Ministry of Health, which can have a negative impact on the quality of services. PMID:27054013

Comparison of the Ministry of Health's tariffs with the cost of radiology services using the activity-based costing method.

PubMed

Kalhor, Rohollah; Amini, Saeed; Emami, Majid; Kakasoltani, Keivan; Rhamani, Nasim; Kalhor, Leila

2016-02-01

Efficient use of resources in organizations is one of the most important duties of managers. Appropriate allocation of resources can help managers to do this well. The aim of this study was to determine the cost of radiology services and to compare it with governmental tariffs (introduced by the Ministry of Health in Iran). This was a descriptive and applied study that was conducted using the retrospective approach. First, activity centers were identified on the basis of five main groups of hospital activities. Then, resources and resource drivers, activities, and hospital activity drivers were identified. At the next step, the activities related to the delivery of radiology process were identified. Last, through allocation of activities cost to the cost objects, the cost price of 66 services that were delivered in the radiology department were calculated. The data were collected by making checklists, using the hospital's information system, observations, and interviews. Finally, the data were analyzed using the non-parametric Wilcoxon test, Microsoft Excel, and SPSS software, version 18. The findings showed that from the total cost of wages, materials, and overhead obtained, the unit cost of the 66 cost objects (delivered services) in the Radiology Department were calculated using the ABC method (Price of each unit of Nephrostogram obtained $15.8 and Cystogram obtained $18.4). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicated that the distribution of data of cost price using the ABC method was not normal (p = 0.000). The Wilcoxon test showed that there was a significant difference between the cost of services and the tariff of radiology services (p = 0.000). The cost of delivered services in radiology departments was significantly higher than approved tariffs of the Ministry of Health, which can have a negative impact on the quality of services.

The design of water markets when instream flows have value.

PubMed

Murphy, James J; Dinar, Ariel; Howitt, Richard E; Rassenti, Stephen J; Smith, Vernon L; Weinberg, Marca

2009-02-01

The main objective of this paper is to design and test a decentralized exchange mechanism that generates the location-specific pricing necessary to achieve efficient allocations in the presence of instream flow values. Although a market-oriented approach has the potential to improve upon traditional command and control regulations, questions remain about how these rights-based institutions can be implemented such that the potential gains from liberalized trade can be realized. This article uses laboratory experiments to test three different water market institutions designed to incorporate instream flow values into the allocation mechanism through active participation of an environmental trader. The smart, computer-coordinated market described herein offers the potential to significantly reduce coordination problems and transaction costs associated with finding mutually beneficial trades that satisfy environmental constraints. We find that direct environmental participation in the market can achieve highly efficient and stable outcomes, although the potential does exist for the environmental agent to influence outcomes.

Concurrent progressive ratio schedules: Effects of reinforcer probability on breakpoint and response allocation.

PubMed

Jarmolowicz, David P; Sofis, Michael J; Darden, Alexandria C

2016-07-01

Although progressive ratio (PR) schedules have been used to explore effects of a range of reinforcer parameters (e.g., magnitude, delay), effects of reinforcer probability remain underexplored. The present project used independently progressing concurrent PR PR schedules to examine effects of reinforcer probability on PR breakpoint (highest completed ratio prior to a session terminating 300s pause) and response allocation. The probability of reinforcement on one lever remained at 100% across all conditions while the probability of reinforcement on the other lever was systematically manipulated (i.e., 100%, 50%, 25%, 12.5%, and a replication of 25%). Breakpoints systematically decreased with decreasing reinforcer probabilities while breakpoints on the control lever remained unchanged. Patterns of switching between the two levers were well described by a choice-by-choice unit price model that accounted for the hyperbolic discounting of the value of probabilistic reinforcers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A preliminary assessment of the feasibility of deriving liquid and gaseous fuels from grown and waste organics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graham, R. W.; Reynolds, T. W.; Hsu, Y. Y.

1976-01-01

The anticipated depletion of our resources of natural gas and petroleum in a few decades has caused a search for renewable sources of fuel. Among the possibilities is the chemical conversion of waste and grown organic matter into gaseous or liquid fuels. The overall feasibility of such a system is considered from the technical, economic, and social viewpoints. Although there are a number of difficult problems to overcome, this preliminary study indicates that this option could provide between 4 and 10 percent of the U.S. energy needs. Estimated costs of fuels derived from grown organic material are appreciably higher than today's market price for fossil fuel. The cost of fuel derived from waste organics is competitive with fossil fuel prices. Economic and social reasons will prohibit the allocation of good food producing land to fuel crop production.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in smart grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yin

In this thesis, in order to investigate the impact of charging load from plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), a stochastic model is developed in Matlab. In this model, two main types of PHEVs are defined: public transportation vehicles and private vehicles. Different charging time schedule, charging speed and battery capacity are considered for each type of vehicles. The simulation results reveal that there will be two load peaks (at noon and in evening) when the penetration level of PHEVs increases continuously to 30% in 2030. Therefore, optimization tool is utilized to shift load peaks. This optimization process is based on real time pricing and wind power output data. With the help of smart grid, power allocated to each vehicle could be controlled. As a result, this optimization could fulfill the goal of shifting load peaks to valley areas where real time price is low or wind output is high.

Pricing and reimbursement of drugs and medical devices in Hungary.

PubMed

Gulácsi, L; Dávid, T; Dózsa, Cs

2002-01-01

Similarly to other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Hungary has witnessed massive diffusion of healthcare technology such as drugs and medical devices since 1990. While substantial new pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and procedures have been liberalized, there has been no proper evaluation or training in their use. Healthcare providers have come to find themselves as entrepreneurs in private practice, while patients are acquiring an increasing awareness as customers of healthcare,demanding services in return for their taxes and contributions. This has led to extremely irrational patterns of investment in technology, with most an obvious waste of resources, while leaving basic needs unmet. Both the National Health Insurance Fund and the Ministry of Finance believe that the current pharmaceutical and medical device bill is too high. However, introducing a more transparent and flexible pricing and reimbursement framework may enable a more efficient allocation of the limited resources to be achieved.

The advertised price of cigarette packs in retail outlets across Australia before and after the implementation of plain packaging: a repeated measures observational study

PubMed Central

Scollo, Michelle; Bayly, Megan; Wakefield, Melanie

2015-01-01

Objective This study monitored the advertised price of the most prominently promoted and the cheapest single packs of cigarettes in Australian retail outlets before and after the implementation of plain packaging. Methods A panel of 421 outlets in four large Australian cities was visited monthly from May 2012 to August 2013 and the brand, pack size and price of the most-prominently listed and lowest-priced single cigarette pack were recorded from each store's tobacco price board. Changes in the inflation-adjusted stick price were examined using linear mixed models, controlling for fixed effects of city, store type, area socioeconomic status and random effects of time. The adjusted stick price was also examined over time by tobacco manufacturer and pack size. Results The inflation-adjusted stick price of the most-prominently advertised single packs was significantly higher than in May–July 2012 from August–October 2012 for mainstream and premium brands and from February–April 2013 for value brands. Adjusted average stick prices of lowest-priced packs in August 2013 were $0.02 (95% CI $0.02 to $0.03, p<0.001) higher than in May–July 2012 ($Aug13). A large real increase in stick price was seen in February–April 2013 across all major manufacturers, market segments and pack size categories. Discussion The price of cigarettes most prominently promoted on price boards did not decrease in the months following implementation of Australia's plain packaging legislation. Retail prices continued to increase above the level resulting from automatic indexation of excise/customs duty even at the lowest-priced end of the Australian market. PMID:28407616

Availability and variation of publicly reported prescription drug prices.

PubMed

Kullgren, Jeffrey T; Segel, Joel E; Peterson, Timothy A; Fendrick, A Mark; Singh, Simone

2017-07-01

To examine how often retail prices for prescription drugs are available on state public reporting websites, the variability of these reported prices, and zip code characteristics associated with greater price variation. Searches of state government-operated websites in Michigan, Missouri, New York, and Pennsylvania for retail prices for Advair Diskus (250/50 fluticasone propionate/salmeterol), Lyrica (pregabalin 50 mg), Nasonex (mometasone 50 mcg nasal spray), Spiriva (tiotropium 18 mcg cp-handihaler), Zetia (ezetimibe 10 mg), atorvastatin 20 mg, and metoprolol 50 mg. Data were collected for a 25% random sample of 1330 zip codes. For zip codes with at least 1 pharmacy, we used χ2 tests to compare how often prices were reported. For zip codes with at least 2 reported prices, we used Kruskal-Wallis tests to compare the median difference between the highest and lowest prices and a generalized linear model to identify zip code characteristics associated with greater price variation. Price availability varied significantly (P <.001) across states and drugs, ranging from 52% for metoprolol in Michigan to 1% for atorvastatin in Michigan. Price variation also varied significantly (P <.001) across states and drugs, ranging from a median of $159 for atorvastatin in Pennsylvania to a median of $24 for Nasonex in Missouri. The mean price variation was $52 greater (P <.001) for densely populated zip codes and $60 greater (P <.001) for zip codes with mostly nonwhite residents. Publicly reported information on state prescription drug price websites is often deficient. When prices are reported, there can be significant variation in the prices of prescriptions, which could translate into substantial savings for consumers who pay out-of-pocket for prescription drugs.

Comparing gender discrimination and inequality in indie and traditional publishing

PubMed Central

Kapelner, Adam

2018-01-01

In traditional publishing, female authors’ titles command nearly half (45%) the price of male authors’ and are underrepresented in more prestigious genres, and books are published by publishing houses, which determined whose books get published, subject classification, and retail price. In the last decade, the growth of digital technologies and sales platforms have enabled unprecedented numbers of authors to bypass publishers to publish and sell books. The rise of indie publishing (aka self-publishing) reflects the growth of the “gig” economy, where the influence of firms has diminished and workers are exposed more directly to external markets. Encompassing the traditional and the gig economy, the book industry illuminates how the gig economy may disrupt, replicate, or transform the gender discrimination mechanisms and inequality found in the traditional economy. In a natural experiment spanning from 2002 to 2012 and including over two million book titles, we compare discrimination mechanisms and inequality in indie and traditional publishing. We find that indie publishing, though more egalitarian, largely replicates traditional publishing’s gender discrimination patterns, showing an unequal distribution of male and female authors by genre (allocative discrimination), devaluation of genres written predominantly by female authors (valuative discrimination), and lower prices within genres for books by female authors (within-job discrimination). However, these discrimination mechanisms are associated with far less price inequality in indie, only 7%, in large part due to the smaller and lower range of prices in indie publishing compared to traditional publishing. We conclude that, with greater freedom, workers in the gig economy may be inclined to greater equality but will largely replicate existing labor market segmentation and the lower valuation of female-typical work and of female workers. Nonetheless, price setting for work may be more similar for workers in the gig economy due to market competition that will compress prices ranges. PMID:29630619

Essays on wholesale auctions in deregulated electricity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baltaduonis, Rimvydas

2007-12-01

The early experience in the restructured electric power markets raised several issues, including price spikes, inefficiency, security, and the overall relationship of market clearing prices to generation costs. Unsatisfactory outcomes in these markets are thought to have resulted in part from strategic generator behaviors encouraged by inappropriate market design features. In this dissertation, I examine the performance of three auction mechanisms for wholesale power markets - Offer Cost Minimization auction, Payment Cost Minimization auction and Simple-Offer auction - when electricity suppliers act strategically. A Payment Cost Minimization auction has been proposed as an alternative to the traditional Offer Cost Minimization auction with the intention to solve the problem of inflated wholesale electricity prices. Efficiency concerns for this proposal were voiced due to insights predicated on the assumption of true production cost revelation. Using a game theoretic approach and an experimental method, I compare the two auctions, strictly controlling for the level of unilateral market power. A specific feature of these complex-offer auctions is that the sellers submit not only the quantities and the minimum prices that they are willing to sell at, but also the start-up fees, which are designed to reimburse the fixed start-up costs of the generation plants. I find that the complex structure of the offers leaves considerable room for strategic behavior, which consequently leads to anti-competitive and inefficient market outcomes. In the last chapter of my dissertation, I use laboratory experiments to contrast the performance of two complex-offer auctions against the performance of a simple-offer auction, in which the sellers have to recover all their generation costs - fixed and variable - through a uniform market-clearing price. I find that a simple-offer auction significantly reduces consumer prices and lowers price volatility. It mitigates anti-competitive effects that are present in the complex-offer auctions and achieves allocative efficiency more quickly.

Is Reducing Uncertain Control the Key to Successful Test Anxiety Intervention for Secondary School Students? Findings from a Randomized Control Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putwain, David W.; Pescod, Marc

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to conduct a randomized control trial of a targeted, facilitated, test anxiety intervention for a group of adolescent students, and to examine the mediating role of uncertain control. Fifty-six participants (male = 19, white = 21, mean age = 14.7 years) were randomly allocated to an early intervention or wait-list control…

Irrigation water policy analysis using a business simulation game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buchholz, M.; Holst, G.; Musshoff, O.

2016-10-01

Despite numerous studies on farmers' responses to changing irrigation water policies, uncertainties remain about the potential of water pricing schemes and water quotas to reduce irrigation. Thus far, policy impact analysis is predominantly based upon rational choice models that assume behavioral assumptions, such as a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker. Also, econometric techniques are applied which could lack internal validity due to uncontrolled field data. Furthermore, such techniques are not capable of identifying ill-designed policies prior to their implementation. With this in mind, we apply a business simulation game for ex ante policy impact analysis of irrigation water policies at the farm level. Our approach has the potential to reveal the policy-induced behavioral change of the participants in a controlled environment. To do so, we investigate how real farmers from Germany, in an economic experiment, respond to a water pricing scheme and a water quota intending to reduce irrigation. In the business simulation game, the participants manage a "virtual" cash-crop farm for which they make crop allocation and irrigation decisions during several production periods, while facing uncertain product prices and weather conditions. The results reveal that a water quota is able to reduce mean irrigation applications, while a water pricing scheme does not have an impact, even though both policies exhibit equal income effects for the farmers. However, both policies appear to increase the variation of irrigation applications. Compared to a perfectly rational profit-maximizing decision maker, the participants apply less irrigation on average, both when irrigation is not restricted and when a water pricing scheme applies. Moreover, the participants' risk attitude affects the irrigation decisions.

Drug pricing and reimbursement decision making systems in Mongolia.

PubMed

Dorj, Gereltuya; Sunderland, Bruce; Sanjjav, Tsetsegmaa; Dorj, Gantuya; Gendenragchaa, Byambatsogt

2017-01-01

It is essential to allocate available resources equitably in order to ensure accessibility and affordability of essential medicines, especially in less fortunate nations with limited health funding. Currently, transparent and evidence based research is required to evaluate decision making regarding drug registration, drug pricing and reimbursement processes in Mongolia. To assess the drug reimbursement system and discuss challenges faced by policy-makers and stakeholders. The study has examined Mongolian administrative documents and directives for stakeholders and analysed published statistics. Experts and decision-makers were interviewed about the drug pricing and reimbursement processes in Mongolia. Decisions regarding Mongolian drug registration were based on commonly used criteria of quality, safety, efficacy plus some economic considerations. A total of 11.32 billion Mongolian National Tugrugs (MNT) [5.6 million United States Dollars (USD)] or 12.1% of total health expenditure was spent on patient reimbursement of essential drugs. The highest reimbursed drugs with respect to cost in 2014 were the cardiovascular drug group. Health insurance is compulsory for all citizens; in addition all insured patients have access to reimbursed drugs. However, the decision making process, in particular the level of reimbursement was limited by various barriers, including lack of evidence based data regarding efficacy and comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of drugs and decisions regarding reimbursement. Drug registration, pricing and reimbursement process in Mongolia show an increasing trend of drug registration and reimbursement rates, along with lack of transparency. Limited available data indicate that more evidence-based research studies are required in Mongolia to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of drug pricing and reimbursement policies.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Exposure Therapy and Cognitive Restructuring for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryant, Richard A.; Moulds, Michelle L.; Guthrie, Rachel M.; Dang, Suzanne T.; Mastrodomenico, Julie; Nixon, Reginald D. V.; Felmingham, Kim L.; Hopwood, Sally; Creamer, Mark

2008-01-01

Previous studies have reported that adding cognitive restructuring (CR) to exposure therapy does not enhance treatment gains in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). This study investigated the extent to which CR would augment treatment response when provided with exposure therapy. The authors randomly allocated 118 civilian trauma survivors with…

Behavioral Family Intervention for Children with Developmental Disabilities and Behavioral Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Clare; Mazzucchelli, Trevor; Studman, Lisa; Sanders, Matthew R.

2006-01-01

The outcomes of a randomized clinical trial of a new behavioral family intervention, Stepping Stones Triple P, for preschoolers with developmental and behavior problems are presented. Forty-eight children with developmental disabilities participated, 27 randomly allocated to an intervention group and 20 to a wait-list control group. Parents…

Menstruation and Education in Nepal. NBER Working Paper No. 14853

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oster, Emily; Thornton, Rebecca

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results from a randomized evaluation that distributed menstrual cups (menstrual sanitary products) to adolescent girls in rural Nepal. Girls in the study were randomly allocated a menstrual cup for use during their monthly period and were followed for fifteen months to measure the effects of having modern sanitary products…

Telephone-Based Coping Skills Training for Patients Awaiting Lung Transplantation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blumenthal, James A.; Babyak, Michael A.; Keefe, Francis J.; Davis, R. Duane; LaCaille, Rick A.; Carney, Robert M.; Freedland, Kenneth E.; Trulock, Elbert; Palmer, Scott M.

2006-01-01

Impaired quality of life is associated with increased mortality in patients with advanced lung disease. Using a randomized controlled trial with allocation concealment and blinded outcome assessment at 2 tertiary care teaching hospitals, the authors randomly assigned 328 patients with end-stage lung disease awaiting lung transplantation to 12…

Individual mineral supplement intake by ewes swath grazing or confinement fed pea-barley forage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Sixty mature ewes (non-pregnant, non-lactating) were used in a completely randomized design to determine if feeding method of pea-barley forage (swath grazing or hay in confinement) had an effect on individual ewe mineral consumption. Thirty ewes were randomly allocated to 3 confinement pens and 30 ...

Promoting Protective Factors for Young Adolescents: ABCD Parenting Young Adolescents Program Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Kylie; Brennan, Leah; Cann, Warren

2012-01-01

This study examined the efficacy of a program for parents of young adolescents combining behavioral family intervention with acceptance-based strategies. 180 parents were randomly allocated to a 6-session group ABCD Parenting Young Adolescent Program or wait-list condition. Completer analysis indicated parents in the intervention reported…

Randomized Control Trial of a CBT Trauma Recovery Program in Palestinian Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barron, Ian G.; Abdallah, Ghassan; Smith, Patrick

2013-01-01

The current study aimed to assess the Teaching Recovery Techniques (TRT) trauma recovery program within the context of ongoing violence. Utilizing a randomized controlled trial, 11-14-year-old students in Nablus, Palestine, were allocated by class to intervention or wait-list control conditions. Standardized measures assessed trauma exposure,…

As-built design specification for proportion estimate software subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Obrien, S. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The Proportion Estimate Processor evaluates four estimation techniques in order to get an improved estimate of the proportion of a scene that is planted in a selected crop. The four techniques to be evaluated were provided by the techniques development section and are: (1) random sampling; (2) proportional allocation, relative count estimate; (3) proportional allocation, Bayesian estimate; and (4) sequential Bayesian allocation. The user is given two options for computation of the estimated mean square error. These are referred to as the cluster calculation option and the segment calculation option. The software for the Proportion Estimate Processor is operational on the IBM 3031 computer.

Health care costs attributable to the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Sørensen, J

2004-01-01

A 'programme budget' for the resources used in the treatment and care of patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) was developed with a view of helping decision-makers assess the appropriateness of the current use of resources and to discuss future resource allocation. The programme budget was developed using data from several national administrative registers. Patients with RA were identified by hospital diagnostic codes. The incremental cost of treating RA was defined as the difference in resource use for patients with and without RA. Incremental mortality due to RA was defined in similar way. Cost data were estimated for 5-year age groups. Patients with RA used on average 3.2 times as many health care resources as people without RA. The average 1997 incremental costs of primary and hospital care were EUR 253 and EUR 2.660 per patient respectively, corresponding to a national incremental cost of EUR 30 million (2000 price level). RA resulted in an annual loss of 1,549 life years. The programme budget approach is a useful tool in resource allocation decision-making, but discussions of alternative resource allocations must be based on robust studies of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in the treatment of patients with RA.

Spectrum Sharing Based on a Bertrand Game in Cognitive Radio Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zeng, Biqing; Zhang, Chi; Hu, Pianpian; Wang, Shengyu

2017-01-01

In the study of power control and allocation based on pricing, the utility of secondary users is usually studied from the perspective of the signal to noise ratio. The study of secondary user utility from the perspective of communication demand can not only promote the secondary users to meet the maximum communication needs, but also to maximize the utilization of spectrum resources, however, research in this area is lacking, so from the viewpoint of meeting the demand of network communication, this paper designs a two stage model to solve spectrum leasing and allocation problem in cognitive radio sensor networks (CRSNs). In the first stage, the secondary base station collects the secondary network communication requirements, and rents spectrum resources from several primary base stations using the Bertrand game to model the transaction behavior of the primary base station and secondary base station. The second stage, the subcarriers and power allocation problem of secondary base stations is defined as a nonlinear programming problem to be solved based on Nash bargaining. The simulation results show that the proposed model can satisfy the communication requirements of each user in a fair and efficient way compared to other spectrum sharing schemes. PMID:28067850

Sensitivity analysis of key components in large-scale hydroeconomic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellin-Azuara, J.; Connell, C. R.; Lund, J. R.; Howitt, R. E.

2008-12-01

This paper explores the likely impact of different estimation methods in key components of hydro-economic models such as hydrology and economic costs or benefits, using the CALVIN hydro-economic optimization for water supply in California. In perform our analysis using two climate scenarios: historical and warm-dry. The components compared were perturbed hydrology using six versus eighteen basins, highly-elastic urban water demands, and different valuation of agricultural water scarcity. Results indicate that large scale hydroeconomic hydro-economic models are often rather robust to a variety of estimation methods of ancillary models and components. Increasing the level of detail in the hydrologic representation of this system might not greatly affect overall estimates of climate and its effects and adaptations for California's water supply. More price responsive urban water demands will have a limited role in allocating water optimally among competing uses. Different estimation methods for the economic value of water and scarcity in agriculture may influence economically optimal water allocation; however land conversion patterns may have a stronger influence in this allocation. Overall optimization results of large-scale hydro-economic models remain useful for a wide range of assumptions in eliciting promising water management alternatives.

Equity, public policy and outpatient specialty mental health services.

PubMed

Savoca, E

1993-01-01

This study provides evidence on the role of the public sector in the allocation of ambulatory specialty mental health services across income groups in the adult population. Results suggest that in the early to mid-1980s, the tax and transfer system effectively lowered the price of services to the poor and the rich, thus causing the highest use by persons at the extreme ends of the income distribution. High utilization at the low end of the income scale can be largely attributed to publicly provided insurance. A comparison of demand prior to the Medicaid cuts brought on by the Omnibus Budget and Reconciliation Act (OBRA) of 1981 with post-OBRA estimates reveals the extreme sensitivity of demand to changes in coverage. Among upper income groups the results imply that the implicit price of specialty mental health care falls as income rises. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that the government's exclusion of health benefits and expenditures from taxation effectively lowers the price of medical services to individuals in high marginal income tax brackets. It also suggests that recent proposals to limit the tax exclusion of employer-paid premiums may lead to a more equitable distribution of resources in the specialty mental health sector.

Long-term outcomes in women with polycystic ovary syndrome initially randomized to receive laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries or ovulation induction with gonadotrophins.

PubMed

Nahuis, M J; Kose, N; Bayram, N; van Dessel, H J H M; Braat, D D M; Hamilton, C J C M; Hompes, P G A; Bossuyt, P M; Mol, B W J; van der Veen, F; van Wely, M

2011-07-01

Long-term effects of laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries are unknown. To study the long-term effects of laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries and gonadotrophins, we followed women with clomiphene-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) randomly allocated to one of these treatments until 8-12 years after their initial treatment. Between February 1998 and October 2001 168 women with clomiphene citrate-resistant PCOS were included in a randomized controlled trial comparing an electrocautery strategy to a strategy starting with rFSH. In 2009 these women were contacted about their reproductive outcome and menstrual cycle regularity. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. We compared time to conception resulting in live birth, subsequent pregnancies, ectopic and multiple pregnancies, menopause, as well as minimal and maximal menstrual cycle length. After 8-12 years, the cumulative proportion of women with a first child was 86% in women who had been allocated to electrocautery versus 81% in women who had been allocated to immediate rFSH [relative ratio (RR): 1.1; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.92-1.2]. Treatment with electrocautery resulted in a significantly lower need for stimulated cycles to reach a live birth; 53% after electrocautery versus 76% after rFSH (RR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.55-0.88).The cumulative proportion of women with a second child was 61% after electrocautery versus 46% after immediate rFSH (RR: 1.4; 95% CI: 1.00-1.9). Overall, there were 7 twins out of 134 deliveries (5%) after electrocautery versus 10 twins out of 124 deliveries (8%) in the rFSH group (RR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.25-1.6). Fifty-four per cent of the women allocated to electrocautery had a regular menstrual cycle 8-12 years after randomization versus 36% in those allocated to rFSH (RR: 1.5; 95% CI: 0.87-2.6). In women with clomiphene-resistant PCOS, laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries is as effective as ovulation induction with FSH treatment in terms of live births, but reduces the need for ovulation induction or ART in a significantly higher proportion of women and increases the chance for a second child. Clinicians may use these data when informing clomiphene-resistant anovulatory women about treatment options.

DO CONSUMER PRICE SUBSIDIES REALLY IMPROVE NUTRITION?*

PubMed Central

Jensen, Robert T.; Miller, Nolan H.

2010-01-01

Many developing countries use food-price subsidies or controls to improve nutrition. However, subsidizing goods on which households spend a high proportion of their budget can create large wealth effects. Consumers may then substitute towards foods with higher non-nutritional attributes (e.g., taste), but lower nutritional content per unit of currency, weakening or perhaps even reversing the subsidy’s intended impact. We analyze data from a randomized program of large price subsidies for poor households in two provinces of China and find no evidence that the subsidies improved nutrition. In fact, it may have had a negative impact for some households. (JEL I38; O12; Q18) PMID:22505779

OxMaR: open source free software for online minimization and randomization for clinical trials.

PubMed

O'Callaghan, Christopher A

2014-01-01

Minimization is a valuable method for allocating participants between the control and experimental arms of clinical studies. The use of minimization reduces differences that might arise by chance between the study arms in the distribution of patient characteristics such as gender, ethnicity and age. However, unlike randomization, minimization requires real time assessment of each new participant with respect to the preceding distribution of relevant participant characteristics within the different arms of the study. For multi-site studies, this necessitates centralized computational analysis that is shared between all study locations. Unfortunately, there is no suitable freely available open source or free software that can be used for this purpose. OxMaR was developed to enable researchers in any location to use minimization for patient allocation and to access the minimization algorithm using any device that can connect to the internet such as a desktop computer, tablet or mobile phone. The software is complete in itself and requires no special packages or libraries to be installed. It is simple to set up and run over the internet using online facilities which are very low cost or even free to the user. Importantly, it provides real time information on allocation to the study lead or administrator and generates real time distributed backups with each allocation. OxMaR can readily be modified and customised and can also be used for standard randomization. It has been extensively tested and has been used successfully in a low budget multi-centre study. Hitherto, the logistical difficulties involved in minimization have precluded its use in many small studies and this software should allow more widespread use of minimization which should lead to studies with better matched control and experimental arms. OxMaR should be particularly valuable in low resource settings.

Nonlinear Pricing in Drug Benefits and Medication Use: The Case of Statin Compliance in Medicare Part D

PubMed Central

Jung, Kyoungrae; Feldman, Roger; McBean, A Marshall

2014-01-01

Objective To examine how enrollees' statin compliance responds to expected prices in Medicare Part D, which features a nonlinear price schedule due to a coverage gap. Data Sources/Study Setting Prescription Drug Event data for a 5 percent random sample of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug Plan enrollees in 2008 who did not receive a low-income subsidy. Study Design We analyze statin compliance prior to the coverage gap, where the “effective price” is higher than the actual copayment for drugs because consumers anticipate that more spending will make them more likely to reach the gap. We construct each enrollee's effective price as her expected price at the end of the year, which is the weighted average between pre-gap and in-gap copayments with the weight being the predicted probability of hitting the gap. Compliance is defined as at least 80 percent of days covered. Principal Findings Part D enrollees' pre-gap statin compliance decreases by 3.7–4.7 percentage points for a $10 increase in the effective price. Conclusion The presence of a coverage gap decreases statin compliance prior to the gap, suggesting that incorporating expected future prices is important to assess the full impact of cost sharing on drug compliance under nonlinear price schedules. PMID:24354765

Effect of Reassuring Information About Musculoskeletal and Mental Health Complaints at the Workplace: A Cluster Randomized Trial of the atWork Intervention.

PubMed

Johnsen, Tone Langjordet; Eriksen, Hege Randi; Baste, Valborg; Indahl, Aage; Odeen, Magnus; Tveito, Torill Helene

2018-05-21

Purpose The purpose of this study was to investigate the possible difference between the Modified atWork intervention (MAW) and the Original atWork intervention (OAW) on sick leave and other health related outcomes. atWork is a group intervention using the workplace as an arena for distribution of evidence-based knowledge about musculoskeletal and mental health complaints. Methods A cluster randomized controlled trial with 93 kindergartens, comprising a total of 1011 employees, was conducted. Kindergartens were stratified by county and size and randomly allocated to MAW (45 clusters, 324 respondents) or OAW (48 clusters, 313 respondents). The randomization and intervention allocation processes were concealed. There was no blinding to group allocation. Primary outcome was register data on sick leave at cluster level. Secondary outcomes were health complaints, job satisfaction, social support, coping, and beliefs about musculoskeletal and mental health complaints, measured at the individual level. Results The MAW group reduced sick leave by 5.7% during the intervention year, while the OAW group had a 7.5% increase. Overall, the changes were not statistically significant, and no difference was detected between groups, based on 45 and 47 kindergartens. Compared to the OAW group, the MAW group had a smaller reduction for two of the statements concerning faulty beliefs about back pain, but believed less in the hereditary nature of depression. Conclusions The MAW did not have a different effect on sick leave at cluster level compared to the OAW. Trial registration https://Clinicaltrials.gov/ : NCT02396797. Registered March 23th, 2015.

Fast Food Consumption and Food Prices: Evidence from Panel Data on 5th and 8th Grade Children

PubMed Central

Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M.; Wada, Roy

2012-01-01

Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents. PMID:22292115

[Cigarette consumer price and affordability in China: results from 2015 China adult survey].

PubMed

Wang, L L; Yang, Y; Nan, Y; Tu, M W; Wang, J J; Jiang, Y

2017-01-10

Objective: To analyze the change of cigarette consumption price, and understand the cigarette affordability in China. Methods: A total of 16 800 households were selected through multi-stage stratified cluster sampling. Then IPAQ was used to randomly select one family member to conduct the survey. Questionnaire from Global Tobacco Surveillance System with added country-specific questions was used. Results: Up to 50 % of current smokers would buy 20 cigarettes with price of 9.9 yuan (RMB) or less, and 25 % of current smokers would not buy 20 cigarettes with price exceed 5.5 yuan (RMB). Only 10 % would buy 20 cigarettes with price over 19.9 yuan (RMB). The calculated median monthly expenditure for cigarettes was 181.4 yuan (RMB). From 2010 to 2015, the proportion of annual expenditure for cigarettes in disposable income per capita declined from 10.5 % to 8.8 % in urban area and from 21.1 % to 17.3 % in rural area. Conclusion: During 2010-2015, the purchasing power of Chinese smokers increased in both urban area and rural area due to the decrease of cigarette consumption price.

Motorcycle helmets in Vietnam: ownership, quality, purchase price, and affordability.

PubMed

Hung, Dang Viet; Stevenson, Mark R; Ivers, Rebecca Q

2008-06-01

This study investigated motorcycle helmet ownership, quality, purchase price, and affordability in Vietnam. A random sample of motorcyclists was interviewed to investigate aspects of helmet ownership, the purchase price, and affordability of a motorcycle helmet. Multivariate modeling conducted to determine factors associated with the purchase price and affordability of motorcycle helmets. Helmet quality was assessed based on current legal requirements in Vietnam. The prevalence of helmet use in Vietnam remains low (23.3%) despite a high level of helmet ownership (94%), indicating that this is an important area for public health intervention. Overall the quality of helmets appeared to be good; however, few helmets displayed legally required information. Motorcyclists with a high income purchase more helmets for their household rather than more expensive helmets. To ensure that helmets are accessible to the community, policy-makers need to consider pricing motorcycle helmets at a price indicated by the results of this study. Prior to universal motorcycle helmet legislation, the government will also need to ensure that standard helmets are available and that enforcement is at a level to ensure that motorcycle helmets are actually used.

Fast food consumption and food prices: evidence from panel data on 5th and 8th grade children.

PubMed

Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M; Wada, Roy

2012-01-01

Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents.

Economic evaluation of uterine artery embolization versus hysterectomy in the treatment of symptomatic uterine fibroids: results from the randomized EMMY trial.

PubMed

Volkers, Nicole A; Hehenkamp, Wouter J K; Smit, Patrick; Ankum, Willem M; Reekers, Jim A; Birnie, Erwin

2008-07-01

To investigate whether uterine artery embolization (UAE) is a cost-effective alternative to hysterectomy for patients with symptomatic uterine fibroids, the authors performed an economic evaluation alongside the multicenter randomized EMMY (EMbolization versus hysterectoMY) trial. Between February 2002 and February 2004, 177 patients were randomized to undergo UAE (n = 88) or hysterectomy (n = 89) and followed up until 24 months after initial treatment allocation. Conditional on the equivalence of clinical outcome, a cost minimization analysis was performed according to the intention to treat principle. Costs included health care costs inside and outside the hospital as well as costs related to absence from work (societal perspective). Cumulative standardized costs were estimated as volumes multiplied with prices. The nonparametric bootstrap method was used to quantify differences in mean (95% confidence interval [CI]) costs between the strategies. In total, 81 patients underwent UAE and 75 underwent hysterectomy. In the UAE group, 19 patients (23%) underwent secondary hysterectomies. The mean total costs per patient in the UAE group were significantly lower than those in the hysterectomy group ($11,626 vs $18,563; mean difference, -$6,936 [-37%], 95% CI: -$9,548, $4,281). The direct medical in-hospital costs were significantly lower in the UAE group: $6,688 vs $8,313 (mean difference, -$1,624 [-20%], 95% CI: -$2,605, -$586). Direct medical out-of-hospital and direct nonmedical costs were low in both groups (mean cost difference, $156 in favor of hysterectomy). The costs related to absence from work differed significantly between the treatment strategies in favor of UAE (mean difference, -$5,453; 95% CI: -$7,718, -$3,107). The costs of absence from work accounted for 79% of the difference in total costs. The 24-month cumulative cost of UAE is lower than that of hysterectomy. From a societal economic perspective, UAE is the superior treatment strategy in women with symptomatic uterine fibroids.

Backward jump continuous-time random walk: An application to market trading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

2010-10-01

The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.

Backward jump continuous-time random walk: an application to market trading.

PubMed

Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

2010-10-01

The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.

National survey of physicians to determine the effect of unconditional incentives on response rates of physician postal surveys

PubMed Central

Abdulaziz, Kasim; Brehaut, Jamie; Taljaard, Monica; Émond, Marcel; Sirois, Marie-Josée; Lee, Jacques S; Wilding, Laura; Perry, Jeffrey J

2015-01-01

Objectives Physicians are a commonly targeted group in health research surveys, but their response rates are often relatively low. The goal of this paper was to evaluate the effect of unconditional incentives in the form of a coffee card on physician postal survey response rates. Design Following 13 key informant interviews and eight cognitive interviews a survey questionnaire was developed. Participants A random sample of 534 physicians, stratified by physician group (geriatricians, family physicians, emergency physicians) was selected from a national medical directory. Setting Using computer generated random numbers; half of the physicians in each stratum were allocated to receive a coffee card to a popular national coffee chain together with the first survey mailout. Interventions The intervention was a $10 Tim Hortons gift card given to half of the physicians who were randomly allocated to receive the incentive. Results 265 (57.0%) physicians completed the survey. The response rate was significantly higher in the group allocated to receive the incentive (62.7% vs 51.3% in the control group; p=0.01). Conclusions Our results indicate that an unconditional incentive in the form of a coffee gift card can substantially improve physician response rates. Future research can look at the effect of varying amounts of cash on the gift cards on response rates. PMID:25694460

Efficient Graph-Based Resource Allocation Scheme Using Maximal Independent Set for Randomly- Deployed Small Star Networks

PubMed Central

Zhou, Jian; Wang, Lusheng; Wang, Weidong; Zhou, Qingfeng

2017-01-01

In future scenarios of heterogeneous and dense networks, randomly-deployed small star networks (SSNs) become a key paradigm, whose system performance is restricted to inter-SSN interference and requires an efficient resource allocation scheme for interference coordination. Traditional resource allocation schemes do not specifically focus on this paradigm and are usually too time consuming in dense networks. In this article, a very efficient graph-based scheme is proposed, which applies the maximal independent set (MIS) concept in graph theory to help divide SSNs into almost interference-free groups. We first construct an interference graph for the system based on a derived distance threshold indicating for any pair of SSNs whether there is intolerable inter-SSN interference or not. Then, SSNs are divided into MISs, and the same resource can be repetitively used by all the SSNs in each MIS. Empirical parameters and equations are set in the scheme to guarantee high performance. Finally, extensive scenarios both dense and nondense are randomly generated and simulated to demonstrate the performance of our scheme, indicating that it outperforms the classical max K-cut-based scheme in terms of system capacity, utility and especially time cost. Its achieved system capacity, utility and fairness can be close to the near-optimal strategy obtained by a time-consuming simulated annealing search. PMID:29113109

Mentalization-Based Treatment for Self-Harm in Adolescents: A Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rossouw, Trudie I.; Fonagy, Peter

2012-01-01

Objective: We examined whether mentalization-based treatment for adolescents (MBT-A) is more effective than treatment as usual (TAU) for adolescents who self-harm. Method: A total of 80 adolescents (85% female) consecutively presenting to mental health services with self-harm and comorbid depression were randomly allocated to either MBT-A or TAU.…

Bibliotherapy for Children with Anxiety Disorders Using Written Materials for Parents: A Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rapee, Ronald M.; Abbott, Maree J.; Lyneham, Heidi J.

2006-01-01

The current trial examined the value of modifying empirically validated treatment for childhood anxiety for application via written materials for parents of anxious children. Two hundred sixty-seven clinically anxious children ages 6-12 years and their parents were randomly allocated to standard group treatment, wait list, or a bibliotherapy…

Gender Differences in the Maintenance of Response to Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felmingham, Kim L.; Bryant, Richard A.

2012-01-01

Objective: To examine potential differential responses in men and women to cognitive behavior therapy for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Method: Fifty-two men and 56 women diagnosed with PTSD participated in randomized controlled trials of cognitive behavior therapy for PTSD. Participants were randomly allocated to either (a) exposure-only…

Modeling of waiting times and price changes in currency exchange data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repetowicz, Przemysław; Richmond, Peter

2004-11-01

A theory which describes the share price evolution at financial markets as a continuous-time random walk (Physica A 287 (2000) 468, Physica A 314 (2002) 749, Eur. Phys. J. B 27 (2002) 273, Physica A 376 (2000) 284) has been generalized in order to take into account the dependence of waiting times t on price returns x. A joint probability density function (pdf) φ(x,t) which uses the concept of a Lévy stable distribution is worked out. The theory is fitted to high-frequency US $/Japanese Yen exchange rate and low-frequency 19th century Irish stock data. The theory has been fitted both to price return and to waiting time data and the adherence to data, in terms of the χ2 test statistic, has been improved when compared to the old theory.

On the insignificance of Herschel's sunspot correlation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2013-01-01

We examine William Herschel's hypothesis that solar-cycle variation of the Sun's irradiance has a modulating effect on the Earth's climate and that this is, specifically, manifested as an anticorrelation between sunspot number and the market price of wheat. Since Herschel first proposed his hypothesis in 1801, it has been regarded with both interest and skepticism. Recently, reports have been published that either support Herschel's hypothesis or rely on its validity. As a test of Herschel's hypothesis, we seek to reject a null hypothesis of a statistically random correlation between historical sunspot numbers, wheat prices in London and the United States, and wheat farm yields in the United States. We employ binary-correlation, Pearson-correlation, and frequency-domain methods. We test our methods using a historical geomagnetic activity index, well known to be causally correlated with sunspot number. As expected, the measured correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity would be an unlikely realization of random data; the correlation is “statistically significant.” On the other hand, measured correlations between sunspot number and wheat price and wheat yield data would be very likely realizations of random data; these correlations are “insignificant.” Therefore, Herschel's hypothesis must be regarded with skepticism. We compare and contrast our results with those of other researchers. We discuss procedures for evaluating hypotheses that are formulated from historical data.

The Oregon health insurance experiment: when limited policy resources provide research opportunities.

PubMed

Allen, Heidi; Baicker, Katherine; Taubman, Sarah; Wright, Bill; Finkelstein, Amy

2013-12-01

In 2008 Oregon allocated access to its Medicaid expansion program, Oregon Health Plan Standard, by drawing names from a waiting list by lottery. The lottery was chosen by policy makers and stakeholders as the preferred way to allocate limited resources. At the same time, it also gave rise to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment: an unprecedented opportunity to do a randomized evaluation - the gold standard in medical and scientific research - of the impact of expanding Medicaid. In this article we provide historical context for Oregon's decision to conduct a lottery, discuss the importance of randomized controlled designs for policy evaluation, and describe some of the practical challenges in successfully capitalizing on the research opportunity presented by the Oregon lottery through public-academic partnerships. Since policy makers will always face tough choices about how to distribute scarce resources, we urge thoughtful consideration of the opportunities to incorporate randomization that can substantially improve the evidence available to inform policy decisions without compromising policy goals.

Interrelation Between Safety Factors and Reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elishakoff, Isaac; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

An evaluation was performed to establish relationships between safety factors and reliability relationships. Results obtained show that the use of the safety factor is not contradictory to the employment of the probabilistic methods. In many cases the safety factors can be directly expressed by the required reliability levels. However, there is a major difference that must be emphasized: whereas the safety factors are allocated in an ad hoc manner, the probabilistic approach offers a unified mathematical framework. The establishment of the interrelation between the concepts opens an avenue to specify safety factors based on reliability. In cases where there are several forms of failure, then the allocation of safety factors should he based on having the same reliability associated with each failure mode. This immediately suggests that by the probabilistic methods the existing over-design or under-design can be eliminated. The report includes three parts: Part 1-Random Actual Stress and Deterministic Yield Stress; Part 2-Deterministic Actual Stress and Random Yield Stress; Part 3-Both Actual Stress and Yield Stress Are Random.

Effects of fundamentals acquisition and strategy switch on stock price dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Songtao; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

2018-02-01

An agent-based artificial stock market is developed to simulate trading behavior of investors. In the market, acquisition and employment of information about fundamentals and strategy switch are investigated to explain stock price dynamics. Investors could obtain the information from both market and neighbors resided on their social networks. Depending on information status and performances of different strategies, an informed investor may switch to the strategy of fundamentalist. This in turn affects the information acquisition process, since fundamentalists are more inclined to search and spread the information than chartists. Further investigation into price dynamics generated from three typical networks, i.e. regular lattice, small-world network and random graph, are conducted after general relation between network structures and price dynamics is revealed. In each network, integrated effects of different combinations of information efficiency and switch intensity are investigated. Results have shown that, along with increasing switch intensity, market and social information efficiency play different roles in the formation of price distortion, standard deviation and kurtosis of returns.

Switching health insurers: the role of price, quality and consumer information search.

PubMed

Boonen, Lieke H H M; Laske-Aldershof, Trea; Schut, Frederik T

2016-04-01

We examine the impact of price, service quality and information search on people's propensity to switch health insurers in the competitive Dutch health insurance market. Using panel data from annual household surveys and data on health insurers' premiums and quality ratings over the period 2006-2012, we estimate a random effects logit model of people's switching decisions. We find that switching propensities depend on health plan price and quality, and on people's age, health, education and having supplementary or group insurance. Young people (18-35 years) are more sensitive to price, whereas older people are more sensitive to quality. Searching for health plan information has a much stronger impact on peoples' sensitivity to price than to service quality. In addition, searching for health plan information has a stronger impact on the switching propensity of higher than lower educated people, suggesting that higher educated people make better use of available health plan information. Finally, having supplementary insurance significantly reduces older people's switching propensity.

White noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on stock prices of a publicly traded company: A case study cross-correlation analysis based on green energy management theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Peter M.

The purpose of this study was to examine white noise effects of U.S. crude oil spot prices on the stock prices of a green energy company. Epistemological, Phenomenological, Axiological and Ontological assumptions of Green Energy Management (GEM) Theory were utilized for selecting Air Products and Chemicals Inc. (APD) as the case study. Exxon Mobil (XOM) was used as a control for triangulation purposes. The period of time examined was between January of 1999 and December of 2008. Monthly stock prices for APD and XOM for the ten year period of time were collected from the New York Stock Exchange. Monthly U.S. crude oil spot prices for the ten year period of time were collected from the US Energy Information Administration. The data was entered into SPSS 17.0 software in order to conduct cross-correlation analysis. The six cross-correlation assumptions were satisfied in order to conduct a Cross-correlation Mirror Test (CCMT). The CCMT established the lag time direction and verified that U.S. crude oil spot prices serve as white noise for stock prices of APD and XOM. The Theory of Relative Weakness was employed in order to analyze the results. A 2 year period of time between December, 2006 and December, 2008 was examined. The correlation coefficient r = - .155 indicates that U.S. crude oil spot prices lead APD stock prices by 4 months. During the same 2 year period of time, U.S. crude oil spot prices lead XOM stock prices by 4 months at r = -.283. XOM stock prices and APD stock prices were positively correlated with 0 lag in time with a positive r = .566. The 4 month cycle was an exact match between APD stock prices, XOM stock prices and U.S. crude oil spot prices. The 4 month cycle was due to the random price fluctuation of U.S. crude oil spot prices that obscured the true stock prices of APD and XOM for the 2 year period of time.

Applying economic principles to health care.

PubMed Central

Scott, R. D.; Solomon, S. L.; McGowan, J. E.

2001-01-01

Applying economic thinking to an understanding of resource use in patient care is challenging given the complexities of delivering health care in a hospital. Health-care markets lack the characteristics needed to determine a "market" price that reflects the economic value of resources used. However, resource allocation in a hospital can be analyzed by using production theory to determine efficient resource use. The information provided by hospital epidemiologists is critical to understanding health-care production processes used by a hospital and developing economic incentives to promote antibiotic effectiveness and infection control. PMID:11294724

Can self-care health books affect amount of contact with the primary health care team? A randomized controlled trial in general practice.

PubMed

Platts, Amanda; Mitton, Rosly; Boniface, David; Friedli, Karin

2005-09-01

To investigate the effects of two differently styled self-care health books in general practice on the frequency and duration of patients' consultations and their views of the books. Random allocation of patients to either a descriptive or a decision-tree based self-care health book, or a no-book control condition. Three- and 12-months follow-up by postal questionnaire and monitoring of consultations. A large general practice in the South East of England. A total of 1967 volunteer, adult patients who attended the practice in 2001 participated. Demographics; health problems; use of health services; use and perceptions of the trial book; frequency and duration of consultations. Response rates to postal questionnaires at 3 and 12 months were 80% and 74%. In all, 48% consulted their allocated book, compared with 25% who consulted any healthcare book in the Control group. Those reporting health problems were more likely to have consulted their allocated book; 60% reported that the allocated book made them more likely to deal with a problem themselves and 40% reported themselves less likely to consult the practice. However, there were no differences in consultation rates or durations of consultations between the three groups. Handing out of self-care health books may provide qualitative benefits for patients but is unlikely to reduce attendance at the GP practice.

An exploratory study on equity in funding allocation for essential medicines and health supplies in Uganda's public sector.

PubMed

Kusemererwa, Donna; Alban, Anita; Obua, Ocwa Thomas; Trap, Birna

2016-08-30

To ascertain equity in financing for essential medicines and health supplies (EMHS) in Uganda, this paper explores the relationships among government funding allocations for EMHS, patient load, and medicines availability across facilities at different levels of care. We collected data on EMHS allocations and availability of selected vital medicines from 43 purposively sampled hospitals and the highest level health centers (HC IV), 44 randomly selected lower-level health facilities (HC II, III), and from over 400 facility health information system records and National Medical Stores records. The data were analyzed to determine allocations per patient within and across levels of care and the effects of allocations on product availability. EMHS funding allocations per patient varied widely within facilities at the same level, and allocations per patient between levels overlapped considerably. For example, HC IV allocations per patient ranged from US$0.25 to US$2.14 (1:9 ratio of lowest to highest allocation), and over 75 % of HC IV facilities had the same or lower average allocation per patient than HC III facilities. Overall, 43 % of all the facilities had optimal stock levels, 27 % were understocked, and 30 % were overstocked. Using simulations, we reduced the ratio between the highest and lowest allocations per patient within a level of care to less than two and eliminated the overlap in allocation per patient between levels. Inequity in EMHS allocation is demonstrated by the wide range of funding allocations per patient and the corresponding disparities in medicines availability. We show that using patient load to calculate EMHS allocations has the potential to improve equity significantly. However, more research in this area is urgently needed. The article does not report any results of human participants. It is implemented in collaboration with the Uganda's Ministry of Health, Pharmacy Division.

Kinetic market models with single commodity having price fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Chakrabarti, B. K.

2006-12-01

We study here numerically the behavior of an ideal gas like model of markets having only one non-consumable commodity. We investigate the behavior of the steady-state distributions of money, commodity and total wealth, as the dynamics of trading or exchange of money and commodity proceeds, with local (in time) fluctuations in the price of the commodity. These distributions are studied in markets with agents having uniform and random saving factors. The self-organizing features in money distribution are similar to the cases without any commodity (or with consumable commodities), while the commodity distribution shows an exponential decay. The wealth distribution shows interesting behavior: gamma like distribution for uniform saving propensity and has the same power-law tail, as that of the money distribution, for a market with agents having random saving propensity.

Dual Fractal Dimension and Long-Range Correlation of Chinese Stock Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chaoshi; Wang, Lei

2012-03-01

The recently developed modified inverse random midpoint displacement (mIRMD) and conventional detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) algorithms are used to analyze the tick-by-tick high-frequency time series of Chinese A-share stock prices and indexes. A dual-fractal structure with a crossover at about 10 min is observed. The majority of the selected time series show visible persistence within this time threshold, but approach a random walk on a longer time scale. The phenomenon is found to be industry-dependent, i.e., the crossover is much more prominent for stocks belonging to cyclical industries than for those belonging to noncyclical (defensive) industries. We have also shown that the sign series show a similar dual-fractal structure, while like generally found, the magnitude series show a much longer time persistence.

Transfer potentials shape and equilibrate monetary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Robert; Braun, Dieter

2003-04-01

We analyze a monetary system of random money transfer on the basis of double entry bookkeeping. Without boundary conditions, we do not reach a price equilibrium and violate text-book formulas of economist's quantity theory ( MV= PQ). To match the resulting quantity of money with the model assumption of a constant price, we have to impose boundary conditions. They either restrict specific transfers globally or impose transfers locally. Both connect through a general framework of transfer potentials. We show that either restricted or imposed transfers can shape Gaussian, tent-shape exponential, Boltzmann-exponential, pareto or periodic equilibrium distributions. We derive the master equation and find its general time-dependent approximate solution. An equivalent of quantity theory for random money transfer under the boundary conditions of transfer potentials is given.

Constraints and potential for efficient inter-sectoral water allocations in Tanzania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashaigili, Japhet J.; Kadigi, Reuben M. J.; Sokile, Charles S.; Mahoo, Henry F.

In many sub-Saharan African countries, there are conflicts over water uses in most river basins. In Tanzania, conflicts are becoming alarming and are exacerbated by increasing water demands due to rapid population growth and expanding economic activities. This paper reviews the major constraints and potential for achieving efficient systems of allocating water resources to different uses and users in Tanzania. The following constraints are identified: (a) the lack of active community involvement in management of water resources, (b) conflicting institutions and weak institutional capacities both in terms of regulations and protection of interests of the poor, (c) the lack of data and information to inform policy and strategies for balanced water allocation, and (d) inadequate funds for operation, maintenance and expansion of water supply systems. Despite these constraints, there are also opportunities for improving water allocation and management systems in the country. These include: the available reserve of both surface and groundwater resources, which remain unexploited; high demand for water services; a high potential for investing in the water sector; and availability of basic infrastructure and elements of institutional framework that can be improved. The paper recommends the use of combined variants of water allocation devices which (a) meet different water requirements and ensure desirable multiple-use outcomes, (b) facilitate the classification of water resources in terms of desired environmental protection levels, (c) allow reforms in water utilization to achieve equity and meet changing social and economic priorities, (d) facilitate the development of effective local institutions, (e) put in place the legal system that assigns rights to water resources and describes how those rights may be transferred, (f) enforce the rights and punish infringements on those rights, and (g) use cost-effective pricing systems to ensure that payment for water uses cover development, operational and management costs.

The statistical pitfalls of the partially randomized preference design in non-blinded trials of psychological interventions.

PubMed

Gemmell, Isla; Dunn, Graham

2011-03-01

In a partially randomized preference trial (PRPT) patients with no treatment preference are allocated to groups at random, but those who express a preference receive the treatment of their choice. It has been suggested that the design can improve the external and internal validity of trials. We used computer simulation to illustrate the impact that an unmeasured confounder could have on the results and conclusions drawn from a PRPT. We generated 4000 observations ("patients") that reflected the distribution of the Beck Depression Index (DBI) in trials of depression. Half were randomly assigned to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design and half were assigned to a PRPT design. In the RCT, "patients" were evenly split between treatment and control groups; whereas in the preference arm, to reflect patient choice, 87.5% of patients were allocated to the experimental treatment and 12.5% to the control. Unadjusted analyses of the PRPT data consistently overestimated the treatment effect and its standard error. This lead to Type I errors when the true treatment effect was small and Type II errors when the confounder effect was large. The PRPT design is not recommended as a method of establishing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing for simulated crises in perioperative medicine in Canada.

PubMed

Isaranuwatchai, Wanrudee; Alam, Fahad; Hoch, Jeffrey; Boet, Sylvain

2017-01-01

High-fidelity simulation training is effective for learning crisis resource management (CRM) skills, but cost is a major barrier to implementing high-fidelity simulation training into the curriculum. The aim of this study was to examine the cost-effectiveness of self-debriefing and traditional instructor debriefing in CRM training programs and to calculate the minimum willingness-to-pay (WTP) value when one debriefing type becomes more cost-effective than the other. This study used previous data from a randomized controlled trial involving 50 anesthesiology residents in Canada. Each participant managed a pretest crisis scenario. Participants who were randomized to self-debrief used the video of their pretest scenario with no instructor present during their debriefing. Participants from the control group were debriefed by a trained instructor using the video of their pretest scenario. Participants individually managed a post-test simulated crisis scenario. We compared the cost and effectiveness of self-debriefing versus instructor debriefing using net benefit regression. The cost-effectiveness estimate was reported as the incremental net benefit and the uncertainty was presented using a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve. Self-debriefing costs less than instructor debriefing. As the WTP increased, the probability that self-debriefing would be cost-effective decreased. With a WTP ≤Can$200, the self-debriefing program was cost-effective. However, when effectiveness was priced higher than cost-savings and with a WTP >Can$300, instructor debriefing was the preferred alternative. With a lower WTP (≤Can$200), self-debriefing was cost-effective in CRM simulation training when compared to instructor debriefing. This study provides evidence regarding cost-effectiveness that will inform decision-makers and clinical educators in their decision-making process, and may help to optimize resource allocation in education.

State Approaches to Demand Reduction Induced Price Effects: Examining How Energy Efficiency Can Lower Prices for All

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taylor, Colin; Hedman, Bruce; Goldberg, Amelie

Effects (DRIPE) as a real, quantifiable benefit of energy efficiency and demand response programs. DRIPE is a measurement of the value of demand reductions in terms of the decrease in wholesale energy prices, resulting in lower total expenditures on electricity or natural gas across a given grid. Crucially for policymakers and consumer advocates, DRIPE savings accrue not only to the subset of customers who consume less, but to all consumers. Rate-paying customers realize DRIPE savings when price reductions across an electricity or natural gas system are passed on to all retail customers as lower rates (depending upon regulation and marketmore » structure, residual savings may be wholly or partially retained by utilities). DRIPE savings, though seemingly small in terms of percent price reductions or dollars per household, can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year across entire states or grids. Therefore, accurately assessing DRIPE benefits can help to ensure appropriate programs are designed and implemented for energy efficiency measures. This paper reviews the existing knowledge and experience from select U.S. states regarding DRIPE (including New York and Ohio), and the potential for expanded application of the concept of DRIPE by regulators. Policymakers and public utility commissions have a critical role to play in setting the methodology for determining DRIPE, encouraging its capture by utilities, and allocating DRIPE benefits among utilities, various groups of customers, and/or society at large. While the methodologies for estimating DRIPE benefits are still being perfected, policymakers can follow the examples of states such as Maryland and Vermont in including conservative DRIPE estimates in their resource planning.« less

Industrial conversion costs from oil and gas to alternative fuels

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Askari, H.; Reichert, A.T.

1977-01-01

From a national standpoint, many questions can be raised on conversion -- whether mandatory or through taxation. 1) Why is it necessary to intervene in the market since price increases will act to allocate available fuels. The desire to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas may be an overriding constraint -- an unproven proposition; some believe that price increases would not have a significant positive impact on output -- a position without a great deal of economic or geological foundation; and the President, for obvious reasons, did not want to force households into conversion nor did he want tomore » propose deregulation which, in the short run, may increase prices directly to consumers but it would be politically more palatable to pass on energy price increase through industry; though astute politically, the economic merit of such a decision is very questionable. 2) Is the cutback of oil and gas consumption being targeted into the least critical area of national need, namely industry. 3) From the national perspective, is conversion desirable as compared to continued dependence on foreign oil for existing plants, with non-petroleum fuel sources for new plants and new residential dwellings. If conversion costs are prohibitive, then it may be ruled out. If conversion costs are low but the real cost of using coal or electricity far exceeds the economic risk of OPEC price increases or embargoes, then again conversion may be ruled out. In short, even if conversion costs are low, it is far from obvious that conversion is desirable. In this paper, the question of conversion cost and its regional implications is examined in detail.« less

Pollution Emissions, Environmental Policy, and Marginal Abatement Costs.

PubMed

He, Ling-Yun; Ou, Jia-Jia

2017-12-05

Pollution emissions impose serious social negative externalities, especially in terms of public health. To reduce pollution emissions cost-effectively, the marginal abatement costs (MACs) of pollution emissions must be determined. Since the industrial sectors are the essential pillars of China's economic growth, as well as leading energy consumers and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emitters, estimating MACs of SO₂ emissions at the industrial level can provide valuable information for all abatement efforts. This paper tries to address the critical and essential issue in pollution abatement: How do we determine the MACs of pollution emissions in China? This paper first quantifies the SO₂ emission contribution of different industrial sectors in the Chinese economy by an Input-Output method and then estimates MACs of SO₂ for industrial sectors at the national level, provincial level, and sectoral level by the shadow price theory. Our results show that six sectors (e.g., the Mining and Washing of Coal sector) should be covered in the Chinese pollution emission trading system. We have also found that the lowest SO₂ shadow price is 2000 Yuan/ton at the national level, and that shadow prices should be set differently at the provincial level. Our empirical study has several important policy implications, e.g., the estimated MACs may be used as a pricing benchmark through emission allowance allocation. In this paper, the MACs of industrial sectors are calculated from the national, provincial and sectoral levels; therefore, we provide an efficient framework to track the complex relationship between sectors and provinces.

Transitioning to a national health system in Cyprus: a stakeholder analysis of pharmaceutical policy reform.

PubMed

Wouters, Olivier J; Kanavos, Panos G

2015-09-01

To review the pharmaceutical sector in Cyprus in terms of the availability and affordability of medicines and to explore pharmaceutical policy options for the national health system finance reform expected to be introduced in 2016. We conducted semi-structured interviews in April 2014 with senior representatives from seven key national organizations involved in pharmaceutical care. The captured data were coded and analysed using the predetermined themes of pricing, reimbursement, prescribing, dispensing and cost sharing. We also examined secondary data provided by the Cypriot Ministry of Health; these data included the prices and volumes of prescription medicines in 2013. We identified several key issues, including high medicine prices, underuse of generic medicines and high out-of-pocket drug spending. Most stakeholders recommended that the national government review existing pricing policies to ensure medicines within the forthcoming national health system are affordable and available, introduce a national reimbursement system and incentivize the prescribing and dispensing of generic medicines. There were disagreements over how to (i) allocate responsibilities to governmental agencies in the national health system, (ii) reconcile differences in opinion between stakeholders and (iii) raise awareness among patients, physicians and pharmacists about the benefits of greater generic drug use. In Cyprus, if the national health system is going to provide universal health coverage in a sustainable fashion, then the national government must address the current issues in the pharmaceutical sector. Importantly, the country will need to increase the market share of generic medicines to contain drug spending.

Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy for Individuals Whose Lives Have Been Affected by Cancer: A Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foley, Elizabeth; Baillie, Andrew; Huxter, Malcolm; Price, Melanie; Sinclair, Emma

2010-01-01

Objective: This study evaluated the effectiveness of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) for individuals with a diagnosis of cancer. Method: Participants (N = 115) diagnosed with cancer, across site and stage, were randomly allocated to either the treatment or the wait-list condition. Treatment was conducted at 1 site, by a single…

Personality-Targeted Interventions Delay Uptake of Drinking and Decrease Risk of Alcohol-Related Problems when Delivered by Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Leary-Barrett, Maeve; Mackie, Clare J.; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Al-Khudhairy, Nadia; Conrod, Patricia J.

2010-01-01

Objective: This trial examined the efficacy of teacher-delivered personality-targeted interventions for alcohol-misuse over a 6-month period. Method: This randomized controlled trial randomly allocated participating schools to intervention (n = 11) or control (n = 7) conditions. A total of 2,506 (mean age, 13.7 years) were assessed for elevated…

The Acute Effect of Methylphenidate in Brazilian Male Children and Adolescents with ADHD: A Randomized Clinical Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Szobot, C. M.; Ketzer, C.; Parente, M. A.; Biederman, J.; Rohde, L. A.

2004-01-01

Objective: To evaluate the acute efficacy of methylphenidate (MPH) in Brazilian male children and adolescents with ADHD. Method: In a 4-day, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, fix dose escalating, parallel-group trial, 36 ADHD children and adolescents were allocated to two groups: MPH (n = 19) and placebo (n = 17). Participants were…

Mum, why do you keep on growing? Impacts of environmental variability on optimal growth and reproduction allocation strategies of annual plants.

PubMed

De Lara, Michel

2006-05-01

In their 1990 paper Optimal reproductive efforts and the timing of reproduction of annual plants in randomly varying environments, Amir and Cohen considered stochastic environments consisting of i.i.d. sequences in an optimal allocation discrete-time model. We suppose here that the sequence of environmental factors is more generally described by a Markov chain. Moreover, we discuss the connection between the time interval of the discrete-time dynamic model and the ability of the plant to rebuild completely its vegetative body (from reserves). We formulate a stochastic optimization problem covering the so-called linear and logarithmic fitness (corresponding to variation within and between years), which yields optimal strategies. For "linear maximizers'', we analyse how optimal strategies depend upon the environmental variability type: constant, random stationary, random i.i.d., random monotonous. We provide general patterns in terms of targets and thresholds, including both determinate and indeterminate growth. We also provide a partial result on the comparison between ;"linear maximizers'' and "log maximizers''. Numerical simulations are provided, allowing to give a hint at the effect of different mathematical assumptions.

Antibiotic treatment to prevent postextraction complications: a monocentric, randomized clinical trial. Preliminary outcomes.

PubMed

Barone, Antonio; Marchionni, Francesco S; Cinquini, Chiara; Cipolli Panattoni, Andrea; Toti, Paolo; Marconcini, Simone; Covani, Ugo; Gabriele, Mario

2017-08-01

Tooth extraction is a very common procedure in oral surgery. Despite this, very little information is available in the literature as to the antibiotic management of the patient. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the antibiotic prophylaxis could be beneficial in preventing postextraction local complications and whether the use of a probiotic could help reduce the antibiotic gastro-intestinal side effects. One hundred eleven patients meeting the inclusion criteria were initially included in this randomized clinical trial and randomly allocated to one of the three experimental groups according to a computer-generated randomization list. Patients allocated to the group 1 were given amoxicillin+clavulanic acid (2 g/day for 6 days), patients allocated to the group 2 received antibiotic + probiotic (Bifidobacterium longum+lactoferrin) and patients allocated to the group 3 received no antibiotic therapy after the extraction. To evaluate post-extractive complications, controls were performed at days 7, 14 and 21 after the extraction. At T1 pain at the surgical site was present in the 48%, 30% and 71.4% of the patients belonging respectively to the antibiotic alone group, to the antibiotic+probiotic group and to the control group. The mean Numeric Rating Score (NRS) score was 1.56±1.91, 1.08±1.93, 2.02±2.27 respectively (P=0.0498). Two patients belonging to the control group experienced dry socket. In addition, 9 patients (33.3%) in the antibiotic-alone group and 1 patient (2.7%) in the antibiotic+probiotic group reported intestinal distension (P=0.0012), 7 days after surgery. Finally, diarrhea was recorded in 5 patients of the antibiotic alone group (18.5%), on the other hand, no patients of the antibiotic+probiotic group and the control group reported diarrhea. Postextractive complications observed in each group have been mild and fast to resolve. The antibiotic administration showed a decrease in pain suffered by patients but a higher incidence of gastrointestinal side effects, such as abdominal distension and diarrhea, which seemed to be relieved by the concomitant use of the probiotic.

HPS2-THRIVE randomized placebo-controlled trial in 25 673 high-risk patients of ER niacin/laropiprant: trial design, pre-specified muscle and liver outcomes, and reasons for stopping study treatment.

PubMed

2013-05-01

Niacin has potentially favourable effects on lipids, but its effect on cardiovascular outcomes is uncertain. HPS2-THRIVE is a large randomized trial assessing the effects of extended release (ER) niacin in patients at high risk of vascular events. Prior to randomization, 42 424 patients with occlusive arterial disease were given simvastatin 40 mg plus, if required, ezetimibe 10 mg daily to standardize their low-density lipoprotein (LDL)-lowering therapy. The ability to remain compliant with ER niacin 2 g plus laropiprant 40 mg daily (ERN/LRPT) for ~1 month was then assessed in 38 369 patients and about one-third were excluded (mainly due to niacin side effects). A total of 25 673 patients were randomized between ERN/LRPT daily vs. placebo and were followed for a median of 3.9 years. By the end of the study, 25% of participants allocated ERN/LRPT vs. 17% allocated placebo had stopped their study treatment. The most common medical reasons for stopping ERN/LRPT were related to skin, gastrointestinal, diabetes, and musculoskeletal side effects. When added to statin-based LDL-lowering therapy, allocation to ERN/LRPT increased the risk of definite myopathy [75 (0.16%/year) vs. 17 (0.04%/year): risk ratio 4.4; 95% CI 2.6-7.5; P < 0.0001]; 7 vs. 5 were rhabdomyolysis. Any myopathy (definite or incipient) was more common among participants in China [138 (0.66%/year) vs. 27 (0.13%/year)] than among those in Europe [17 (0.07%/year) vs. 11 (0.04%/year)]. Consecutive alanine transaminase >3× upper limit of normal, in the absence of muscle damage, was seen in 48 (0.10%/year) ERN/LRPT vs. 30 (0.06%/year) placebo allocated participants. The risk of myopathy was increased by adding ERN/LRPT to simvastatin 40 mg daily (with or without ezetimibe), particularly in Chinese patients whose myopathy rates on simvastatin were higher. Despite the side effects of ERN/LRPT, among individuals who were able to tolerate it for ~1 month, three-quarters continued to take it for ~4 years.

Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertus, Mark J.

The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles

PubMed Central

Levine, Sheen S.; Apfelbaum, Evan P.; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L.; Zajac, Edward J.; Stark, David

2014-01-01

Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others’ decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity. PMID:25404313

Menthol cigarette pricing at military and community retail outlets in the United States.

PubMed

Poston, Walker S C; Jahnke, Sara A; Haddock, Christopher K; Hyder, Melissa L; Taylor, Jennifer E; Lando, Harry A; Kaipust, Christopher M

2012-09-01

Cigarette prices at military exchanges historically have been discounted. DoD Instruction 1330.9 has mandated that prices be within 5% of the price offered in the local community since 2001. Because minorities are highly represented in the military, we determined whether menthol cigarette prices, the leading choice of African Americans, were compliant with the instruction. We collected, via telephone, menthol cigarette price data from 48 randomly selected US military installation exchanges and matched local area Walmarts. We collected prices after taxes to determine the cost to consumer. Newport was selected as the index brand for menthol cigarettes because it is the leading and second leading brand smoked by African Americans and by Hispanics, respectively and has the second overall highest market share in the US. Smokers purchasing menthols at exchanges would realize average savings of 22.78%. There were no significant differences in savings based on military service (F = 1.850, p = 0.152) or US Census Division (F = 1.226, p = 0.311: data not shown). In addition, not a single exchange price was compliant with the DoD instruction. Newport menthol cigarettes at military exchanges cost substantially less than the nearest Walmart, with an average savings of 23%. Our findings demonstrate that menthol cigarettes are substantially discounted on military installations, in a manner similar to other cigarette prices, and that DoD Instruction 1330.09 is not enforced.

Menthol cigarette pricing at military and community retail outlets in the United States

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Cigarette prices at military exchanges historically have been discounted. DoD Instruction 1330.9 has mandated that prices be within 5% of the price offered in the local community since 2001. Because minorities are highly represented in the military, we determined whether menthol cigarette prices, the leading choice of African Americans, were compliant with the instruction. Methods We collected, via telephone, menthol cigarette price data from 48 randomly selected US military installation exchanges and matched local area Walmarts. We collected prices after taxes to determine the cost to consumer. Newport was selected as the index brand for menthol cigarettes because it is the leading and second leading brand smoked by African Americans and by Hispanics, respectively and has the second overall highest market share in the US. Results Smokers purchasing menthols at exchanges would realize average savings of 22.78%. There were no significant differences in savings based on military service (F = 1.850, p = 0.152) or US Census Division (F = 1.226, p = 0.311: data not shown). In addition, not a single exchange price was compliant with the DoD instruction. Conclusions Newport menthol cigarettes at military exchanges cost substantially less than the nearest Walmart, with an average savings of 23%. Our findings demonstrate that menthol cigarettes are substantially discounted on military installations, in a manner similar to other cigarette prices, and that DoD Instruction 1330.09 is not enforced. PMID:22938755

Price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter.

PubMed

Jo, Catherine L; Kornfield, Rachel; Kim, Yoonsang; Emery, Sherry; Ribisl, Kurt M

2016-07-01

This cross-sectional study examined price-related promotions for tobacco products on Twitter. Through the Twitter Firehose, we obtained access to all public tweets posted between 6 December 2012 and 20 June 2013 that contained a keyword suggesting a tobacco-related product or behaviour (eg, cigarette, vaping) in addition to a keyword suggesting a price promotion (eg, coupon, discount). From this data set of 155 249 tweets, we constructed a stratified sampling frame based on the price-related keywords and randomly sampled 5000 tweets (3.2%). Tweets were coded for product type and promotion type. Non-English tweets and tweets unrelated to a tobacco or cessation price promotion were excluded, leaving an analytic sample of 2847 tweets. The majority of tweets (97.0%) mentioned tobacco products while 3% mentioned tobacco cessation products. E-cigarettes were the most frequently mentioned product (90.1%), followed by cigarettes (5.4%). The most common type of price promotion mentioned across all products was a discount. About a third of all e-cigarette-related tweets included a discount code. Banned or restricted price promotions comprised about 3% of cigarette-related tweets. This study demonstrates that the vast majority of tweets offering price promotions focus on e-cigarettes. Future studies should examine the extent to which Twitter users, particularly youth, notice or engage with these price promotion tweets. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Food prices, access to food outlets and child weight.

PubMed

Powell, Lisa M; Bao, Yanjun

2009-03-01

This study examines the importance of food prices and restaurant and food store outlet availability for child body mass index (BMI). We use the 1998, 2000 and 2002 waves of the child-mother merged files from the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth combined with fruit and vegetable and fast food price data obtained from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association and outlet density data on fast food and full-service restaurants and supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores obtained from Dun & Bradstreet. Using a random effects estimation model, we found that a 10% increase in the price of fruits and vegetables was associated with a 0.7% increase in child BMI. Fast food prices were not found to be statistically significant in the full sample but were weakly negatively associated with BMI among adolescents with an estimated price elasticity of -0.12. The price estimates were robust to whether we controlled for outlet availability based on a per capita or per land area basis; however, the association between food outlets and child BMI differed depending on the definition. The associations of fruit and vegetable and fast food prices with BMI were significantly stronger both economically and statistically among low- versus high-socioeconomic status children. The estimated fruit and vegetable and fast food price elasticities were 0.14 and -0.26, respectively, among low-income children and 0.09 and -0.13, respectively, among children with less educated mothers.

Ethnic diversity deflates price bubbles.

PubMed

Levine, Sheen S; Apfelbaum, Evan P; Bernard, Mark; Bartelt, Valerie L; Zajac, Edward J; Stark, David

2014-12-30

Markets are central to modern society, so their failures can be devastating. Here, we examine a prominent failure: price bubbles. Bubbles emerge when traders err collectively in pricing, causing misfit between market prices and the true values of assets. The causes of such collective errors remain elusive. We propose that bubbles are affected by ethnic homogeneity in the market and can be thwarted by diversity. In homogenous markets, traders place undue confidence in the decisions of others. Less likely to scrutinize others' decisions, traders are more likely to accept prices that deviate from true values. To test this, we constructed experimental markets in Southeast Asia and North America, where participants traded stocks to earn money. We randomly assigned participants to ethnically homogeneous or diverse markets. We find a marked difference: Across markets and locations, market prices fit true values 58% better in diverse markets. The effect is similar across sites, despite sizeable differences in culture and ethnic composition. Specifically, in homogenous markets, overpricing is higher as traders are more likely to accept speculative prices. Their pricing errors are more correlated than in diverse markets. In addition, when bubbles burst, homogenous markets crash more severely. The findings suggest that price bubbles arise not only from individual errors or financial conditions, but also from the social context of decision making. The evidence may inform public discussion on ethnic diversity: it may be beneficial not only for providing variety in perspectives and skills, but also because diversity facilitates friction that enhances deliberation and upends conformity.

Gluten-Free Foods in Rural Maritime Provinces: Limited Availability, High Price, and Low Iron Content.

PubMed

Jamieson, Jennifer A; Gougeon, Laura

2017-12-01

We investigated the price difference between gluten-free (GF) and gluten-containing (GC) foods available in rural Maritime stores. GF foods and comparable GC items were sampled through random visits to 21 grocery stores in nonurban areas of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, Canada. Wilcoxon rank tests were conducted on price per 100 g of product, and on the price relative to iron content; 2226 GF foods (27.2% staple items, defined as breads, cereals, flours, and pastas) and 1625 GC foods were sampled, with an average ± SD of 66 ± 2.7 GF items per store in rural areas and 331 ± 12 in towns. The median price of GF items ($1.76/100 g) was more expensive than GC counterparts ($1.05/100 g) and iron density was approximately 50% less. GF staple foods were priced 5% higher in rural stores than in town stores. Although the variety of GF products available to consumers has improved, higher cost and lower nutrient density remain issues in nonurban Maritime regions. Dietitians working in nonurban areas should consider the relative high price, difficult access, and low iron density of key GF items, and work together with clients to find alternatives and enhance their food literacy.

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

Statistical analysis of strait time index and a simple model for trend and trend reversal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kan; Jayaprakash, C.

2003-06-01

We analyze the daily closing prices of the Strait Time Index (STI) as well as the individual stocks traded in Singapore's stock market from 1988 to 2001. We find that the Hurst exponent is approximately 0.6 for both the STI and individual stocks, while the normal correlation functions show the random walk exponent of 0.5. We also investigate the conditional average of the price change in an interval of length T given the price change in the previous interval. We find strong correlations for price changes larger than a threshold value proportional to T; this indicates that there is no uniform crossover to Gaussian behavior. A simple model based on short-time trend and trend reversal is constructed. We show that the model exhibits statistical properties and market swings similar to those of the real market.

Study on Stochastic Optimal Electric Power Procurement Strategies with Uncertain Market Prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakchai, Siripatanakulkhajorn; Saisho, Yuichi; Fujii, Yasumasa; Yamaji, Kenji

The player in deregulated electricity markets can be categorized into three groups of GENCO (Generator Companies), TRNASCO (Transmission Companies), DISCO (Distribution Companies). This research focuses on the role of Distribution Companies, which purchase electricity from market at randomly fluctuating prices, and provide it to their customers at given fixed prices. Therefore Distribution companies have to take the risk stemming from price fluctuation of electricity instead of the customers. This entails the necessity to develop a certain method to make an optimal strategy for electricity procurement. In such a circumstance, this research has the purpose for proposing the mathematical method based on stochastic dynamic programming to evaluate the value of a long-term bilateral contract of electricity trade, and also a project of combination of the bilateral contract and power generation with their own generators for procuring electric power in deregulated market.

Medical male circumcision: How does price affect the risk-profile of take-up?

PubMed

Thornton, Rebecca; Godlonton, Susan

2016-11-01

The benefit of male circumcision is greatest among men who are most at risk of HIV infection. Encouraging this population of men to get circumcised maximizes the benefit that can be achieved through the scale-up of circumcision programs. This paper examines how the price of circumcision affects the risk profile of men who receive a voluntary medical circumcision. In 2010, 1649 uncircumcised adult men in urban Malawi were interviewed and provided a voucher for a subsidized voluntary medical male circumcision, at randomly assigned prices. Clinical data were collected indicating whether the men in the study received a circumcision. Men who took-up circumcision with a zero-priced voucher were 25 percentage points less likely than those who took-up with a positive-price voucher, to be from a tribe that traditionally circumcises (p=0.101). Zero-priced vouchers also brought in men with more sexual partners in the past year (p=0.075) and past month (p=0.003). None of the men who were most at risk of HIV at baseline (those with multiple partners and who did not use a condom the last time they had sex) received a circumcision if they were offered a positive-priced voucher. Lowering the price to zero increased circumcision take-up to 25% for men of this risk group. The effect of price on take-up was largest among those at highest risk (p=0.096). Reducing the price of circumcision surgery to zero can increase take-up among those who are most at risk of HIV infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pregnancy complications and metabolic disease in women with clomiphene citrate-resistant anovulation randomized to receive laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries or ovulation induction with gonadotropins: a 10-year follow-up.

PubMed

Nahuis, Marleen J; Oude Lohuis, Eefje J; Bayram, Neriman; Hompes, Peter G A; Oosterhuis, G Jurjen E; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; van Wely, Madelon

2014-01-01

To assess long-term effects of laparoscopic electrocautery of the ovaries compared with ovulation induction with gonadotropins in women with clomiphene citrate (CC)-resistant polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) on the incidence of pregnancy complications like gestational diabetes, hypertensive disorders, and metabolic or cardiovascular disease. Long-term follow-up study. Twenty-eight hospitals within the Netherlands. One hundred sixty-eight CC-resistant women who had participated in a randomized controlled trial between 1998 and 2001 comparing electrocautery and gonadotropins. Postal questionnaire, search in medical files. Pregnancy complications, metabolic or cardiovascular disease. Eighty-two percent of follow-up data were obtained. Thirteen of 68 women (19%) allocated to electrocautery, and 14 of 63 women (22%) allocated to gonadotropins had evidence for pregnancy complications (relative risk 0.86; 95% confidence interval 0.43-1.7). At follow-up, 12 of 69 (17%) women allocated to electrocautery, and 13 of 69 (19%) women allocated to gonadotropins had evidence for metabolic or cardiovascular disease (relative risk 0.90; 95% confidence interval 0.39-2.1). The risk of these was modified by body mass index (BMI), but not by female age or treatment allocation. This study is based on questionnaires and data from medical files. In the absence of routine screening, under-reporting in our follow-up study is likely. Electrocautery in women with CC-resistant PCOS does not affect pregnancy complications or metabolic or cardiovascular disease later in life compared with ovulation induction with gonadotropins. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Collective purchase behavior toward retail price changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ueno, Hiromichi; Watanabe, Tsutomu; Takayasu, Hideki; Takayasu, Misako

2011-02-01

By analyzing a huge amount of point-of-sale data collected from Japanese supermarkets, we find power law relationships between price and sales numbers. The estimated values of the exponents of these power laws depend on the category of products; however, they are independent of the stores, thereby implying the existence of universal human purchase behavior. The rate of sales numbers around these power laws are generally approximated by log-normal distributions implying that there are hidden random parameters, which might proportionally affect the purchase activity.

Impact of communication strategies to increase knowledge, acceptability, and uptake of a new Woman's Condom in urban Lusaka, Zambia: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Pinchoff, Jessie; Chowdhuri, Rachna Nag; Taruberekera, Noah; Ngo, Thoai D

2016-12-13

Globally, 220 million women experience an unmet need for family planning. A newly designed female condom, the Woman's Condom (WC), has been developed featuring an improved design. It is the first dual-protection, female-initiated contraceptive that is a premium, higher price point product. However, market availability alone will not increase uptake. In February 2016 the WC will be distributed with a strong media campaign and interpersonal communication (IPC) outreach intervention. The impact of these on knowledge, acceptability, and use of the WC will be measured. A baseline survey of 2314 randomly selected 18- to 24-year-old sexually active men and women has been conducted. The WC and mass media will be introduced throughout 40 urban wards in and surrounding Lusaka, Zambia. The baseline survey will serve as a quasi-control arm to determine the impact of introducing the WC with mass media. Half of the wards will be randomly allocated to additionally receive the IPC intervention. A single-blind randomized controlled trial will determine the impact of the IPC intervention on knowledge, uptake, and use of the WC. After one year, another 2314 individuals will be randomly selected to participate in the endline survey. We hypothesize that (1) the distribution and media campaign of the WC will increase overall condom use in selected urban wards, and specifically use of the WC; (2) the IPC intervention will significantly impact knowledge, acceptability, and use of the WC. The primary outcome measures are use of the WC, use of any condom, and willingness to use the WC. Secondary outcomes include measures of knowledge, acceptability, and choice of contraception. Odds ratios will be estimated to measure the effect of the intervention on the outcomes with 95% confidence intervals. All analyses will be based on the intention-to-treat principle. Increasing uptake of dual prevention measures (such as the WC) may reduce incidence of sexually transmitted infections/HIV and unplanned pregnancies. It is important to ensure young, urban adults have access to new contraceptive methods; and, understanding how mass media and IPC impact contraceptive knowledge, acceptability, and use is critical to reduce unmet need. AEARCTR-0000899 . Registered on 26 October 2015.

Climate, Agriculture, Energy and the Optimal Allocation of Global Land Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinbuks, J.; Hertel, T. W.

2011-12-01

The allocation of the world's land resources over the course of the next century has become a pressing research question. Continuing population increases, improving, land-intensive diets amongst the poorest populations in the world, increasing production of biofuels and rapid urbanization in developing countries are all competing for land even as the world looks to land resources to supply more environmental services. The latter include biodiversity and natural lands, as well as forests and grasslands devoted to carbon sequestration. And all of this is taking place in the context of faster than expected climate change which is altering the biophysical environment for land-related activities. The goal of the paper is to determine the optimal profile for global land use in the context of growing commercial demands for food and forest products, increasing non-market demands for ecosystem services, and more stringent GHG mitigation targets. We then seek to assess how the uncertainty associated with the underlying biophysical and economic processes influences this optimal profile of land use, in light of potential irreversibility in these decisions. We develop a dynamic long-run, forward-looking partial equilibrium framework in which the societal objective function being maximized places value on food production, liquid fuels (including biofuels), timber production, forest carbon and biodiversity. Given the importance of land-based emissions to any GHG mitigation strategy, as well as the potential impacts of climate change itself on the productivity of land in agriculture, forestry and ecosystem services, we aim to identify the optimal allocation of the world's land resources, over the course of the next century, in the face of alternative GHG constraints. The forestry sector is characterized by multiple forest vintages which add considerable computational complexity in the context of this dynamic analysis. In order to solve this model efficiently, we have employed the Purdue University parallel processing computing cluster. The model is solved over the period 2000 - 2100. Our 100 year baseline accurately reflects developments in global land use over the 10 years that have already transpired, while also incorporating projections of population, income and demand growth from a variety of international agencies. We also consider three counterfactual scenarios (higher growth in energy prices, lower growth in agricultural productivity, and global GHG emissions regulations). Our model baseline predicts that, in absence of market imperfections, growth in cropland/deforestation that account for a large share of land-use GHG emission, declines significantly in the medium run. However, energy prices and policies have a significant effect on agricultural land use. Sensitivity to energy prices is compounded by vulnerability of agriculture to adverse productivity shocks from climate. In a 'perfect storm' of high growth in energy prices and declining agricultural productivity growth, additional demand for cropland leads to significant deforestation and higher GHG emissions. As a result, large welfare losses occur. When we also expect the sector to deliver increased ecosystem services as well as land-based GHG abatement, the pressure on land and water resources can be very significant.

Comparison of in-vivo failure of single-thread and dual-thread temporary anchorage devices over 18 months: A split-mouth randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Durrani, Owais Khalid; Shaheed, Sohrab; Khan, Arsalan; Bashir, Ulfat

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the in-vivo failure rates of single-thread and dual-thread temporary anchorage device (TAD) designs over 18 months. Thirty patients with skeletal Class II Division 1 malocclusion requiring anchorage from TADs for retraction of maxillary incisors into the extracted premolar space were recruited in this parallel group, split-mouth, randomized controlled trial. A block randomization sequence was generated with Random Allocation Software (version 2.0; Isfahan, Iran) with the allocations concealed in sequentially numbered, opaque, sealed envelopes. A total of 60 TADs (diameter, 2 mm; length, 10 mm) were placed in the maxillary arches of these patients with random allocation of the 2 types to the left and the right sides in a 1:1 ratio. All TADs were placed between the roots of the second premolar and the first molar and were immediately loaded. Patients were followed for a minimum of 12 months and a maximum of 18 months for the failure of the TADs. Data were analyzed blindly on an intention-to-treat basis. Four TADs (13.3%) failed in the single-thread group, and 6 TADs (20%) failed in the dual-thread group. The McNemar test showed an insignificant difference (P = 0.72) between the 2 groups. An odds ratio of 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 0.39-6.97) showed no significant associations among the variables. Most TADs failed in the first month after insertion (50%). The failure rate of dual-thread TADs compared with single-thread TADs is statistically insignificant when placed in the maxilla for retraction of the anterior segment. Registration: The trial was not registered before commencement. The protocol was not published before the trial. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013.

PubMed

Ho, Li-Ming; Schafferer, Christian; Lee, Jie-Min; Yeh, Chun-Yuan; Hsieh, Chi-Jung

2017-11-01

This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.