A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

Un regard international sur la sécurité nucléaire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkhofer, Adolf

2002-10-01

Safety has always been an important objective in nuclear technology. Starting with a set of sound physical principles and prudent design approaches, safety concepts have gradually been refined and cover now a wide range of provisions related to design, quality and operation. Research, the evaluation of operating experiences and probabilistic risk assessments constitute an essential basis and international co-operation plays a significant role in that context. Concerning future developments a major objective for new reactor concepts, such as the EPR, is to practically exclude a severe core damage accident with large scale consequences outside the plant. To cite this article: A. Birkhofer, C. R. Physique 3 (2002) 1059-1065.

The European ASAMPSA_E project : towards guidance to model the impact of high amplitude natural hazards in the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Information on the project progress and needs from the geosciences.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimond, Emmanuel; Decker, Kurt; Guigueno, Yves; Klug, Joakim; Loeffler, Horst

2015-04-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan resulted from the combination of two correlated extreme external events (earthquake and tsunami). The consequences, in particular flooding, went beyond what was considered in the initial engineering design design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Such situations can in theory be identified using probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology. PSA results may then lead industry (system suppliers and utilities) or Safety Authorities to take appropriate decisions to reinforce the defence-in-depth of the NPP for low probability event but high amplitude consequences. In reality, the development of such PSA remains a challenging task. Definitions of the design basis of NPPs, for example, require data on events with occurrence probabilities not higher than 10-4 per year. Today, even lower probabilities, down to 10-8, are expected and typically used for probabilistic safety analyses (PSA) of NPPs and the examination of so-called design extension conditions. Modelling the combinations of natural or man-made hazards that can affect a NPP and affecting some meaningful probability of occurrence seems to be difficult. The European project ASAMPSAE (www.asampsa.eu) gathers more than 30 organizations (industry, research, safety control) from Europe, US and Japan and aims at identifying some meaningful practices to extend the scope and the quality of the existing probabilistic safety analysis developed for nuclear power plants. It offers a framework to discuss, at a technical level, how "extended PSA" can be developed efficiently and be used to verify if the robustness of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in their environment is sufficient. The paper will present the objectives of this project, some first lessons and introduce which type of guidance is being developed. It will explain the need of expertise from geosciences to support the nuclear safety assessment in the different area (seismotectonic, hydrological, meteorological and biological hazards, …).

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

Ensemble Simulation of the Atmospheric Radionuclides Discharged by the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sekiyama, Thomas; Kajino, Mizuo; Kunii, Masaru

2013-04-01

Enormous amounts of radionuclides were discharged into the atmosphere by a nuclear accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) after the earthquake and tsunami on 11 March 2011. The radionuclides were dispersed from the power plant and deposited mainly over eastern Japan and the North Pacific Ocean. A lot of numerical simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition had been attempted repeatedly since the nuclear accident. However, none of them were able to perfectly simulate the distribution of dose rates observed after the accident over eastern Japan. This was partly due to the error of the wind vectors and precipitations used in the numerical simulations; unfortunately, their deterministic simulations could not deal with the probability distribution of the simulation results and errors. Therefore, an ensemble simulation of the atmospheric radionuclides was performed using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system coupled with the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NHM); this mesoscale model has been used operationally for daily weather forecasts by JMA. Meteorological observations were provided to the EnKF data assimilation system from the JMA operational-weather-forecast dataset. Through this ensemble data assimilation, twenty members of the meteorological analysis over eastern Japan from 11 to 31 March 2011 were successfully obtained. Using these meteorological ensemble analysis members, the radionuclide behavior in the atmosphere such as advection, convection, diffusion, dry deposition, and wet deposition was simulated. This ensemble simulation provided the multiple results of the radionuclide dispersion and distribution. Because a large ensemble deviation indicates the low accuracy of the numerical simulation, the probabilistic information is obtainable from the ensemble simulation results. For example, the uncertainty of precipitation triggered the uncertainty of wet deposition; the uncertainty of wet deposition triggered the uncertainty of atmospheric radionuclide amounts. Then the remained radionuclides were transported downwind; consequently the uncertainty signal of the radionuclide amounts was propagated downwind. The signal propagation was seen in the ensemble simulation by the tracking of the large deviation areas of radionuclide concentration and deposition. These statistics are able to provide information useful for the probabilistic prediction of radionuclides.

Probability analysis of multiple-tank-car release incidents in railway hazardous materials transportation.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Saat, Mohd Rapik; Barkan, Christopher P L

2014-07-15

Railroads play a key role in the transportation of hazardous materials in North America. Rail transport differs from highway transport in several aspects, an important one being that rail transport involves trains in which many railcars carrying hazardous materials travel together. By contrast to truck accidents, it is possible that a train accident may involve multiple hazardous materials cars derailing and releasing contents with consequently greater potential impact on human health, property and the environment. In this paper, a probabilistic model is developed to estimate the probability distribution of the number of tank cars releasing contents in a train derailment. Principal operational characteristics considered include train length, derailment speed, accident cause, position of the first car derailed, number and placement of tank cars in a train and tank car safety design. The effect of train speed, tank car safety design and tank car positions in a train were evaluated regarding the number of cars that release their contents in a derailment. This research provides insights regarding the circumstances affecting multiple-tank-car release incidents and potential strategies to reduce their occurrences. The model can be incorporated into a larger risk management framework to enable better local, regional and national safety management of hazardous materials transportation by rail. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A defense in depth approach for nuclear power plant accident management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chih-Yao Hsieh; Hwai-Pwu Chou

2015-07-01

An initiating event may lead to a severe accident if the plant safety functions have been challenged or operators do not follow the appropriate accident management procedures. Beyond design basis accidents are those corresponding to events of very low occurrence probability but such an accident may lead to significant consequences. The defense in depth approach is important to assure nuclear safety even in a severe accident. Plant Damage States (PDS) can be defined by the combination of the possible values for each of the PDS parameters which are showed on the nuclear power plant simulator. PDS is used to identifymore » what the initiating event is, and can also give the information of safety system's status whether they are bypassed, inoperable or not. Initiating event and safety system's status are used in the construction of Containment Event Tree (CET) to determine containment failure modes by using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) technique. Different initiating events will correspond to different CETs. With these CETs, the core melt frequency of an initiating event can be found. The use of Plant Damage States (PDS) is a symptom-oriented approach. On the other hand, the use of Containment Event Tree (CET) is an event-oriented approach. In this study, the Taiwan's fourth nuclear power plants, the Lungmen nuclear power station (LNPS), which is an advanced boiling water reactor (ABWR) with fully digitized instrumentation and control (I and C) system is chosen as the target plant. The LNPS full scope engineering simulator is used to generate the testing data for method development. The following common initiating events are considered in this study: loss of coolant accidents (LOCA), total loss of feedwater (TLOFW), loss of offsite power (LOOP), station blackout (SBO). Studies have indicated that the combination of the symptom-oriented approach and the event-oriented approach can be helpful to find mitigation strategies and is useful for the accident management. (authors)« less

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk" submarine study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

2003-06-01

There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the ``Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release (e.g. 1 Bq) are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 10-11 (Bq/m2) over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 (Bq/m2) for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

Methodology for prediction and estimation of consequences of possible atmospheric releases of hazardous matter: "Kursk"? submarine study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baklanov, A.; Mahura, A.; Sørensen, J. H.

2003-03-01

There are objects with some periods of higher than normal levels of risk of accidental atmospheric releases (nuclear, chemical, biological, etc.). Such accidents or events may occur due to natural hazards, human errors, terror acts, and during transportation of waste or various operations at high risk. A methodology for risk assessment is suggested and it includes two approaches: 1) probabilistic analysis of possible atmospheric transport patterns using long-term trajectory and dispersion modelling, and 2) forecast and evaluation of possible contamination and consequences for the environment and population using operational dispersion modelling. The first approach could be applied during the preparation stage, and the second - during the operation stage. The suggested methodology is applied on an example of the most important phases (lifting, transportation, and decommissioning) of the "Kursk" nuclear submarine operation. It is found that the temporal variability of several probabilistic indicators (fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance, maximum possible impact zone, and average integral concentration of 137Cs) showed that the fall of 2001 was the most appropriate time for the beginning of the operation. These indicators allowed to identify the hypothetically impacted geographical regions and territories. In cases of atmospheric transport toward the most populated areas, the forecasts of possible consequences during phases of the high and medium potential risk levels based on a unit hypothetical release are performed. The analysis showed that the possible deposition fractions of 1011 over the Kola Peninsula, and 10-12 - 10-13 for the remote areas of the Scandinavia and Northwest Russia could be observed. The suggested methodology may be used successfully for any potentially dangerous object involving risk of atmospheric release of hazardous materials of nuclear, chemical or biological nature.

Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

2011-10-01

Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

PubMed

Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

1997-08-01

The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groen, Frank

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

A discussion on the methodology for calculating radiological and toxicological consequences for the spent nuclear fuel project at the Hanford Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RITTMANN, P.D.

1999-07-14

This report contains technical information used to determine accident consequences for the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project safety documents. It does not determine accident consequences or describe specific accident scenarios, but instead provides generic information.

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Methods for nuclear air-cleaning-system accident-consequence assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrae, R.W.; Bolstad, J.W.; Gregory, W.S.

1982-01-01

This paper describes a multilaboratory research program that is directed toward addressing many questions that analysts face when performing air cleaning accident consequence assessments. The program involves developing analytical tools and supportive experimental data that will be useful in making more realistic assessments of accident source terms within and up to the atmospheric boundaries of nuclear fuel cycle facilities. The types of accidents considered in this study includes fires, explosions, spills, tornadoes, criticalities, and equipment failures. The main focus of the program is developing an accident analysis handbook (AAH). We will describe the contents of the AAH, which include descriptionsmore » of selected nuclear fuel cycle facilities, process unit operations, source-term development, and accident consequence analyses. Three computer codes designed to predict gas and material propagation through facility air cleaning systems are described. These computer codes address accidents involving fires (FIRAC), explosions (EXPAC), and tornadoes (TORAC). The handbook relies on many illustrative examples to show the analyst how to approach accident consequence assessments. We will use the FIRAC code and a hypothetical fire scenario to illustrate the accident analysis capability.« less

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

2013-03-01

In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any road network provided that the required data are available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

PubMed

Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

2005-08-31

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

PubMed

Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

2014-10-01

This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SOARCA Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station Long-Term Station Blackout Uncertainty Analysis: Knowledge Advancement.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Mattie, Patrick D.; Bixler, Nathan E.

2014-02-01

This paper describes the knowledge advancements from the uncertainty analysis for the State-of- the-Art Reactor Consequence Analyses (SOARCA) unmitigated long-term station blackout accident scenario at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. This work assessed key MELCOR and MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2) modeling uncertainties in an integrated fashion to quantify the relative importance of each uncertain input on potential accident progression, radiological releases, and off-site consequences. This quantitative uncertainty analysis provides measures of the effects on consequences, of each of the selected uncertain parameters both individually and in interaction with other parameters. The results measure the modelmore » response (e.g., variance in the output) to uncertainty in the selected input. Investigation into the important uncertain parameters in turn yields insights into important phenomena for accident progression and off-site consequences. This uncertainty analysis confirmed the known importance of some parameters, such as failure rate of the Safety Relief Valve in accident progression modeling and the dry deposition velocity in off-site consequence modeling. The analysis also revealed some new insights, such as dependent effect of cesium chemical form for different accident progressions. (auth)« less

78 FR 6145 - Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Station, Units 2 and 3; Application and Amendment to Facility Combined...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-29

... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a... proposed amendment involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident...

Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

PubMed Central

Gale, Robert Peter

1988-01-01

The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

Integrated deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis for safety assessment of nuclear power plants

DOE PAGES

Di Maio, Francesco; Zio, Enrico; Smith, Curtis; ...

2015-07-06

The present special issue contains an overview of the research in the field of Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (IDPSA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Traditionally, safety regulation for NPPs design and operation has been based on Deterministic Safety Assessment (DSA) methods to verify criteria that assure plant safety in a number of postulated Design Basis Accident (DBA) scenarios. Referring to such criteria, it is also possible to identify those plant Structures, Systems, and Components (SSCs) and activities that are most important for safety within those postulated scenarios. Then, the design, operation, and maintenance of these “safety-related” SSCs andmore » activities are controlled through regulatory requirements and supported by Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA).« less

Specifying design conservatism: Worst case versus probabilistic analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Ralph F., Jr.

1993-01-01

Design conservatism is the difference between specified and required performance, and is introduced when uncertainty is present. The classical approach of worst-case analysis for specifying design conservatism is presented, along with the modern approach of probabilistic analysis. The appropriate degree of design conservatism is a tradeoff between the required resources and the probability and consequences of a failure. A probabilistic analysis properly models this tradeoff, while a worst-case analysis reveals nothing about the probability of failure, and can significantly overstate the consequences of failure. Two aerospace examples will be presented that illustrate problems that can arise with a worst-case analysis.

[The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

PubMed

Grosche, B

2013-04-01

The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Reliability and Failure in NASA Missions: Blunders, Normal Accidents, High Reliability, Bad Luck

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Harry W.

2015-01-01

NASA emphasizes crew safety and system reliability but several unfortunate failures have occurred. The Apollo 1 fire was mistakenly unanticipated. After that tragedy, the Apollo program gave much more attention to safety. The Challenger accident revealed that NASA had neglected safety and that management underestimated the high risk of shuttle. Probabilistic Risk Assessment was adopted to provide more accurate failure probabilities for shuttle and other missions. NASA's "faster, better, cheaper" initiative and government procurement reform led to deliberately dismantling traditional reliability engineering. The Columbia tragedy and Mars mission failures followed. Failures can be attributed to blunders, normal accidents, or bad luck. Achieving high reliability is difficult but possible.

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

10 CFR 50.92 - Issuance of amendment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... consequences (such as one that permits a significant increase in the amount of effluents or radiation emitted... significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) Create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) Involve a...

Chemical stimulation in unconventional hydrocarbons extraction in the USA: a preliminary environmental risk assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutra, Emilie; Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

2016-04-01

While the exploitation of unconventional resources recently shows an extensive development, the stimulation techniques in use in this domain arouse growing public concerns. Often in the shadow of the disputed hydraulic fracturing process, the matrix acidizing is however a complementary or alternative procedure to enhance the reservoir connectivity. Although acidizing processes are widespread within the traditional hydrocarbons sources exploration, the matrix acidizing does not appear to be commonly used in unconventional hydrocarbons formations due to their low permeability. Nonetheless, this process has been recently applied to the Monterey formation, a shale oil play in California. These stimulation fluids are composed by various chemicals, what represents a matter of concern for public as well as for authorities. As a consequence, a risk assessment implying an exposure and toxicity analysis is needed. Focusing on site surface accidents, e.g., leak of a chemical from a storage tank, we develop in this study concentration scenarios for different exposure pathways to estimate the potential environmental risk associated with the use of specific hazardous substances in the matrix acidizing process for unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA. Primary, information about the usage of different hazardous substances have been collected in order to extract the most frequently used chemicals. Afterwards, a probabilistic estimation of the environmental risk associated with the use of these chemicals is carried out by comparing the Predicted Environmental Concentrations (PEC) distribution with the Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNEC) value. The latter is collected from a literature review, whereas the PEC is estimated as probability distribution concentrations in different environmental compartments (e.g., soil) built upon various predefined accident scenarios. By applying a probabilistic methodology for the concentrations, the level at which the used chemicals could become risky for the environment can be determined. Additionally, these concentration levels are converted into corresponding quantities of hazardous substances in order to discuss implications in terms of safety measures and policy decisions.

Development, Application, and Implementation of RAMCAP to Characterize Nuclear Power Plant Risk From Terrorism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaertner, John P.; Teagarden, Grant A.

2006-07-01

In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI and ERIN Engineering were selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate the RAMCAP method for nuclear power plant (NPP) risk assessment. The objective is to characterize plant-specific NPP risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. This paper is an update of this project presented at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA05) in September, 2005. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. For eachmore » site, worst case scenarios are developed for each of sixteen benchmark threats. Nuclear RAMCAP hypothesizes that the intent of the perpetrator is to cause offsite radiological consequences. Specific targets are the reactor core, the spent fuel pool, and nuclear spent fuel in a dry storage facility (ISFSI). Results for each scenario are presented as conditional risk for financial loss, early fatalities and early injuries. Expected consequences for each scenario are quantified, while vulnerability is estimated on a relative likelihood scale. Insights for other societal risks are provided. Although threat frequencies are not provided, target attractiveness and threat deterrence are estimated. To assure efficiency, completeness, and consistency; results are documented using standard RAMCAP Evaluator software. Trial applications were successfully performed at four plant sites. Implementation at all other U.S. commercial sites is underway, supported by the Nuclear Sector Coordinating Council (NSCC). Insights from RAMCAP results at 23 U.S. plants completed to date have been compiled and presented to the NSCC. Results are site-specific. Physical security barriers, an armed security force, preparedness for design-basis threats, rugged design against natural hazards, multiple barriers between fuel and environment, accident mitigation capability, severe accident management procedures, and offsite emergency plans are risk-beneficial against all threat types. (authors)« less

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

PubMed

Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

2012-08-01

The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, M.

2009-04-01

The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-02-01

This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

Use of questionnaires and an expert panel to judge the environmental consequences of chemical spills for the development of an environment-accident index.

PubMed

Andersson, Asa Scott; Stjernström, Olof; Fängmark, Ingrid

2005-05-01

Assessing the environmental consequences of a chemical accident is a complex task. To date, the methods used to evaluate the environmental effects of an acute release of a chemical have often been based on measurements of chemical and physical variables deemed to be important, such as the concentration of the chemical. However, a broader strategy is needed to predict the environmental consequences of potential accidents during the planning process. An Environment-Accident Index (EAI), a simple tool based on such a strategy, has been developed to facilitate the consideration of a multitude of influential variables. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether questionnaire-based expert panel's judgements could provide useful data on the environmental consequences of chemical spills, and an effective basis for further development of the EAI. As expected, the judgements did not agree perfectly, but they do give rough indications of the environmental effects, and highlight consistent trends that should be useful inputs for planning, prevention and decontamination processes. The different accidents were also judged to have caused everything from minor to very major effects in the environment, implying that a wide range of accident scenarios were represented in the material and covered by the EAI. Therefore, questionnaires and expert panel judgements can be used to collect useful data for estimating the likely environmental consequences of chemical accidents and for further development of the EAI.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo mission: Volume 3 (Book 2), Nuclear risk analysis document: Appendices: Revision 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1989-01-25

It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with ifmore » there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.« less

Safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission. Volume 3, book 2: Nuclear risk analysis document. Appendices, revision 1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1989-01-01

It is the purpose of the NRAD to provide an analysis of the range of potential consequences of accidents which have been identified that are associated with the launching and deployment of the Galileo mission spacecraft. The specific consequences analyzed are those associated with the possible release of radioactive material (fuel) of the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs). They are in terms of radiation doses to people and areas of deposition of radioactive material. These consequence analyses can be used in several ways. One way is to identify the potential range of consequences which might have to be dealt with if there were to be an accident with a release of fuel, so as to assure that, given such an accident, the health and safety of the public will be reasonably protected. Another use of the information, in conjunction with accident and release probabilities, is to estimate the risks associated with the mission. That is, most space launches occur without incident. Given an accident, the most probable result relative to the RTGs is complete containment of the radioactive material. Only a small fraction of accidents might result in a release of fuel and subsequent radiological consequences. The combination of probability with consequence is risk, which can be compared to other human and societal risks to assure that no undue risks are implied by undertaking the mission. Book 2 contains eight appendices.

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalin Stanga, Iulian

2013-04-01

Road accidents are among the leading causes of death in many world countries, partly as an inherent consequence of the increasing mobility of today society. The World Health Organization estimates that 1.3 million people died in road accidents in 2011, which means 186 deaths per million. The tragic picture is completed by millions of peoples experiencing different physical injuries or by the enormous social and economic costs that these events imply. Romania has one of the most unsafe road networks within the European Union, with annual averages of 9400 accidents, 8300 injuries and almost 2680 fatalities (2007-2012). An average of 141 death per million is more than twice the average fatality rate in European Union (about 60 death per million). Other specific indicators (accidents or fatalities reported to the road length, vehicle fleet size, driving license owners or adult population etc.) are even worst in the same European context. Road accidents are caused by a complex series of factors, some of them being a relatively constant premise, while others act as catalyzing factors or triggering agent: road features and quality, vehicle technical state, weather conditions, human related factors etc. All these lead to a complex equation with too many unknown variables, making almost impossible a probabilistic approach. However, the high concentration of accidents in a region or in some road sectors is caused by the existence of a specific context, created by factors with permanent or repetitive character, and leads to the idea of a spatial autocorrelation between locations of different adjoining accident. In the same way, the increasing frequency of road accidents and of their causes repeatability in different periods of the year would allow to identify those black timeframes with higher incidence of road accidents. Identifying and analyzing the road blackspots (hotspots) and black zones would help to improve road safety by acting against the common causes that create the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk assessment. At the end, this paper provides a clustering methodology based on several environmental indicators intended to classify the spatial and temporal hotspots of road traffic insecurity. The results are a useful guide for planners and decision makers in developing effective road safety strategies and measures.

Radioactivity teaching: Environmental consequences of the radiological accident in Goiânia (Brazil)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anjos, R. M.; Facure, A.; Lima, E. L. N.; Gomes, P. R. S.; Santos, M. S.; Brage, J. A. P.; Okuno, E.; Yoshimura, E. M.; Umisedo, N. K.

2001-03-01

Ionizing radiation and its effects on human beings, radiation protection, and radiological accident prevention are topics usually not included in the physics courses at the Brazilian universities. As a consequence, high school teachers are not able to enlighten their students when radiological or nuclear accidents occur. This paper presents a teaching program on ionizing radiation physics, to be applied to undergraduate physics students and to physics high school teachers. It is based on the environmental consequences of the 1987 radiological accident in Goiânia. This program was applied to two undergraduate physics students, in 1999, at the Universidade Federal Fluminense, Brazil. Results of the gamma ray spectrometry measurements of samples collected in Goiânia by the students are presented.

Thermodynamic consequences of hydrogen combustion within a containment of pressurized water reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bury, Tomasz

2011-12-01

Gaseous hydrogen may be generated in a nuclear reactor system as an effect of the core overheating. This creates a risk of its uncontrolled combustion which may have a destructive consequences, as it could be observed during the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Favorable conditions for hydrogen production occur during heavy loss-of-coolant accidents. The author used an own computer code, called HEPCAL, of the lumped parameter type to realize a set of simulations of a large scale loss-of-coolant accidents scenarios within containment of second generation pressurized water reactor. Some simulations resulted in high pressure peaks, seemed to be irrational. A more detailed analysis and comparison with Three Mile Island and Fukushima accidents consequences allowed for withdrawing interesting conclusions.

77 FR 61446 - Proposed Revision Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-09

... documents online in the NRC Library at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html . To begin the search... of digital instrumentation and control system PRAs, including common cause failures in PRAs and uncertainty analysis associated with new reactor digital systems, and (4) incorporation of additional...

77 FR 66649 - Proposed Revision to Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Severe Accident Evaluation for New Reactors

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-06

... in the NRC Library at http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/adams.html . To begin the search, select ``ADAMS... of digital instrumentation and control system PRAs, including common cause failures in PRAs and uncertainty analysis associated with new reactor digital systems, and (4) incorporation of additional...

Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

Toxic release consequence analysis tool (TORCAT) for inherently safer design plant.

PubMed

Shariff, Azmi Mohd; Zaini, Dzulkarnain

2010-10-15

Many major accidents due to toxic release in the past have caused many fatalities such as the tragedy of MIC release in Bhopal, India (1984). One of the approaches is to use inherently safer design technique that utilizes inherent safety principle to eliminate or minimize accidents rather than to control the hazard. This technique is best implemented in preliminary design stage where the consequence of toxic release can be evaluated and necessary design improvements can be implemented to eliminate or minimize the accidents to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) without resorting to costly protective system. However, currently there is no commercial tool available that has such capability. This paper reports on the preliminary findings on the development of a prototype tool for consequence analysis and design improvement via inherent safety principle by utilizing an integrated process design simulator with toxic release consequence analysis model. The consequence analysis based on the worst-case scenarios during process flowsheeting stage were conducted as case studies. The preliminary finding shows that toxic release consequences analysis tool (TORCAT) has capability to eliminate or minimize the potential toxic release accidents by adopting the inherent safety principle early in preliminary design stage. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maritime Transportation Risk Assessment of Tianjin Port with Bayesian Belief Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Jinfen; Teixeira, Ângelo P; Guedes Soares, C; Yan, Xinping; Liu, Kezhong

2016-06-01

This article develops a Bayesian belief network model for the prediction of accident consequences in the Tianjin port. The study starts with a statistical analysis of historical accident data of six years from 2008 to 2013. Then a Bayesian belief network is constructed to express the dependencies between the indicator variables and accident consequences. The statistics and expert knowledge are synthesized in the Bayesian belief network model to obtain the probability distribution of the consequences. By a sensitivity analysis, several indicator variables that have influence on the consequences are identified, including navigational area, ship type and time of the day. The results indicate that the consequences are most sensitive to the position where the accidents occurred, followed by time of day and ship length. The results also reflect that the navigational risk of the Tianjin port is at the acceptable level, despite that there is more room of improvement. These results can be used by the Maritime Safety Administration to take effective measures to enhance maritime safety in the Tianjin port. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extracting recurrent scenarios from narrative texts using a Bayesian network: application to serious occupational accidents with movement disturbance.

PubMed

Abdat, F; Leclercq, S; Cuny, X; Tissot, C

2014-09-01

A probabilistic approach has been developed to extract recurrent serious Occupational Accident with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) scenarios from narrative texts within a prevention framework. Relevant data extracted from 143 accounts was initially coded as logical combinations of generic accident factors. A Bayesian Network (BN)-based model was then built for OAMDs using these data and expert knowledge. A data clustering process was subsequently performed to group the OAMDs into similar classes from generic factor occurrence and pattern standpoints. Finally, the Most Probable Explanation (MPE) was evaluated and identified as the associated recurrent scenario for each class. Using this approach, 8 scenarios were extracted to describe 143 OAMDs in the construction and metallurgy sectors. Their recurrent nature is discussed. Probable generic factor combinations provide a fair representation of particularly serious OAMDs, as described in narrative texts. This work represents a real contribution to raising company awareness of the variety of circumstances, in which these accidents occur, to progressing in the prevention of such accidents and to developing an analysis framework dedicated to this kind of accident. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Traffic accident in Cuiabá-MT: an analysis through the data mining technology.

PubMed

Galvão, Noemi Dreyer; de Fátima Marin, Heimar

2010-01-01

The traffic road accidents (ATT) are non-intentional events with an important magnitude worldwide, mainly in the urban centers. This article aims to analyzes data related to the victims of ATT recorded by the Justice Secretariat and Public Security (SEJUSP) in hospital morbidity and mortality incidence at the city of Cuiabá-MT during 2006, using data mining technology. An observational, retrospective and exploratory study of the secondary data bases was carried out. The three database selected were related using the probabilistic method, through the free software RecLink. One hundred and thirty-nine (139) real pairs of victims of ATT were obtained. In this related database the data mining technology was applied with the software WEKA using the Apriori algorithm. The result generated 10 best rules, six of them were considered according to the parameters established that indicated a useful and comprehensible knowledge to characterize the victims of accidents in Cuiabá. Finally, the findings of the associative rules showed peculiarities of the road traffic accident victims in Cuiabá and highlight the need of prevention measures in the collision accidents for males.

75 FR 17439 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-06

... of an accident or that supports mitigation of an accident previously evaluated. The proposed... probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in...

[Health-related consequences of obstructive sleep apnea: daytime sleepiness, accident risk and legal aspects].

PubMed

Orth, M; Kotterba, S

2012-04-01

Daytime sleepiness for any reason leads to impairment of daytime performance and an increased accident rate. The consequences are an increase of illness- and accident-related costs for the health system. Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is one of the major reasons for increased daytime sleepiness, especially in professional drivers. The accident frequency in OSA can be significantly reduced by adequate continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. Up till now there are no uniform legal regulations about the handling of OSAS patients or patients with daytime sleepiness due to other diseases as far as driving ability is concerned.

Single vehicle accident study

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-11-01

The general objectives of this study were to determine the nature and causes of single vehicle accidents, describe their resulting consequences, and develop recommendations to effect a reduction in the frequency and severity of these accidents. Analy...

Preventing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.; Dolganov, Rostislav A.

2016-06-01

Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal-hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into the KUPOL-M thermal-hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.

The kinetics of aerosol particle formation and removal in NPP severe accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zatevakhin, Mikhail A.; Arefiev, Valentin K.; Semashko, Sergey E.

2016-06-08

Severe Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accidents are accompanied by release of a massive amount of energy, radioactive products and hydrogen into the atmosphere of the NPP containment. A valid estimation of consequences of such accidents can only be carried out through the use of the integrated codes comprising a description of the basic processes which determine the consequences. A brief description of a coupled aerosol and thermal–hydraulic code to be used for the calculation of the aerosol kinetics within the NPP containment in case of a severe accident is given. The code comprises a KIN aerosol unit integrated into themore » KUPOL-M thermal–hydraulic code. Some features of aerosol behavior in severe NPP accidents are briefly described.« less

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

10 CFR 76.85 - Assessment of accidents.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Assessment of accidents. 76.85 Section 76.85 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) CERTIFICATION OF GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANTS Safety § 76.85 Assessment of accidents. The Corporation shall perform an analysis of potential accidents and consequences to...

[Medical consequences of drinking water pollution resulting from a chemical accident].

PubMed

Bulatova, F D; Teregulova, Z S

1992-01-01

The article describes consequences of the chemical accident in Ufa, lead to the drinkable water pollution by phenol and chlorophenolic compounds. Events required the prompt prophylactic measures and reconstruction of health care in the city. The treatment tactics approved at that period of time are represented.

Safety distance assessment of industrial toxic releases based on frequency and consequence: a case study in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Yu, Q; Zhang, Y; Wang, X; Ma, W C; Chen, L M

2009-09-15

A case study on the safety distance assessment of a chemical industry park in Shanghai, China, is presented in this paper. Toxic releases were taken into consideration. A safety criterion based on frequency and consequence of major hazard accidents was set up for consequence analysis. The exposure limits for the accidents with the frequency of more than 10(-4), 10(-5)-10(-4) and 10(-6)-10(-5) per year were mortalities of 1% (or SLOT), 50% (SLOD) and 75% (twice of SLOD) respectively. Accidents with the frequency of less than 10(-6) per year were considered incredible and ignored in the consequence analysis. Taking the safety distance of all the hazard installations in a chemical plant into consideration, the results based on the new criterion were almost smaller than those based on LC50 or SLOD. The combination of the consequence and risk based results indicated that the hazard installations in two of the chemical plants may be dangerous to the protection targets and measurements had to be taken to reduce the risk. The case study showed that taking account of the frequency of occurrence in the consequence analysis would give more feasible safety distances for major hazard accidents and the results were more comparable to those calculated by risk assessment.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for Select Space Propulsion System Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) are described for the probabilistic structural analysis of engine components for current and future space propulsion systems. Components for these systems are subjected to stochastic thermomechanical launch loads. Uncertainties or randomness also occurs in material properties, structural geometry, and boundary conditions. Material property stochasticity, such as in modulus of elasticity or yield strength, exists in every structure and is a consequence of variations in material composition and manufacturing processes. Procedures are outlined for computing the probabilistic structural response or reliability of the structural components. The response variables include static or dynamic deflections, strains, and stresses at one or several locations, natural frequencies, fatigue or creep life, etc. Sample cases illustrates how the PSAM methods and codes simulate input uncertainties and compute probabilistic response or reliability using a finite element model with probabilistic methods.

ARAMIS project: a comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries.

PubMed

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cécile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-03-31

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term "major accidents" must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called "risk matrix", crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage.

Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporatesmore » deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.« less

Burden, distribution and impact of domestic accidents in a semi-urban area of coastal Tamil Nadu, India.

PubMed

Stalin, P; Senthilvel, V; Kanimozhy, K; Singh, Zile; Rajkamal, R; Purty, Anil J

2015-01-01

The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of domestic accidents, describe the factors associated with domestic accidents and assess the medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in a semi-urban area of Tamil Nadu during February 2013. A total of 3947 study participants were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Study variables included were socio-demography, housing conditions, epidemiological factors, medical and economical consequences of domestic accidents. Means and proportions were calculated. The prevalence of domestic accidents was 12.7%. Out of 500 domestic accidents, falls (54.4%) was the most common type of domestic accident. Females and the respondents in age group of 21-40 years were more commonly affected. About 60% of victims received treatment. Mean duration of hospital stay, mean amount of money spent for treatment and mean number of days away from routine work for falls category were 16 days, US$25 and 8 days, respectively, which are higher than other types of accidents. The burden and impact of domestic accidents was high. Therefore, in order to prevent and control domestic accidents, promotion of house safety measures and creation of awareness among the community using IEC programmes have to be undertaken.

Severity of electrical accidents in the construction industry in Spain.

PubMed

Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; López-Arquillos, Antonio

2014-02-01

This paper analyzes the severity of workplace accidents involving electricity in the Spanish construction sector comprising 2,776 accidents from 2003 to 2008. The investigation considered the impact of 13 variables, classified into 5 categories: Personal, Business, Temporal, Material, and Spatial. The findings showed that electrical accidents are almost five times more likely to have serious consequences than the average accident in the sector and it also showed how the variables of age, occupation, company size, length of service, preventive measures, time of day, days of absence, physical activity, material agent, type of injury, body part injured, accident location, and type of location are related to the severity of the electrical accidents under consideration. The present situation makes it clear that greater effort needs to be made in training, monitoring, and signage to guarantee a safe working environment in relation to electrical hazards. This research enables safety technicians, companies, and government officials to identify priorities and to design training strategies to minimize the serious consequences of electrical accidents for construction workers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Psychiatric consequences of stress after a vehicle accident.

PubMed

Dickov, Aleksandra; Martinović-Mitrović, Sladjana; Vucković, Nikola; Siladji-Mladenović, Djendji; Mitrović, Dragan; Jovicević, Mirjana; Misić-Pavkov, Gordana

2009-12-01

Vehicle accidents are a common cause of disease and death among people over 30 years of age. Essentially, reaction to stress due to the vehicle accident does not differ from the reaction to other stress factors. There are still no uniform viewpoints about the kind of sequels and their percentage representation after vehicle accidents. The research was provided as a prospective study, included 150 subjects who had vehicle accident minimum 2 years prior to the examination. A questionnaire adjusted to the needs of the research and a battery of psychological tests was used. Affective disorders occurred in 35.33% of subjects, 65% of persons suffer from travel anxiety, 9% of the total number of examinees doesn't drive any more, 65% have somatisational dysfunctions of the vegetative nervous system, while the posttraumatic stress disorder is present in 36% of subjects. In 87.4% of persons psychiatric consequences last over two years. Long term consequences in 60% of subjects occur as a combination of multiple psychiatric disorders, so the posttraumatic stress disorder and affective disorders never occur one at a time.

Conceptual design study of Fusion Experimental Reactor (FY86 FER): Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seki, Yasushi; Iida, Hiromasa; Honda, Tsutomu

1987-08-01

This report describes the study on safety for FER (Fusion Experimental Reactor) which has been designed as a next step machine to the JT-60. Though the final purpose of this study is to have an image of design base accident, maximum credible accident and to assess their risk or probability, etc., as FER plant system, the emphasis of this years study is placed on fuel-gas circulation system where the tritium inventory is maximum. The report consists of two chapters. The first chapter summarizes the FER system and describes FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) and related accident progression sequence for FER plant system as a whole. The second chapter of this report is focused on fuel-gas circulation system including purification, isotope separation and storage. Probability of risk is assessed by the probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) procedure based on FMEA, ETA and FTA.

A decade of occupational accidents due to direct or indirect electrical contact in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors in Spain (2003-2012).

PubMed

Castillo-Rosa, Juan; Suárez-Cebador, Manuel; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Aguado, Jose Antonio

2017-03-01

Occupational accidents caused by electrical contact are a major concern worldwide due to their severe consequences. The study conducted is based on an analysis of the evolution of incidence rates and dependence between variables for 14,022 electrical accidents occurring in Spain between 2003 and 2012. The results show that electrical accidents as a whole are 3.6 times more likely to have severe consequences than the rest of the accidents in the country. This proportion is even nine times greater in the case of fatal accidents. They also confirm a significant relationship between the severity of this type of accidents and the economic sector in which they occur. On the other hand, there is a positive trend in the reduction of the incidence rate, especially in relation to direct contact, although unexpectedly the rate of accidents due to indirect contact is on the rise. Thus, preventing electrical occupational accidents requires efforts to guarantee adequate training adapted to the needs of workers in the various economic sectors. Furthermore, those responsible for safety should work to implement mechanisms to monitor and control compliance with efficient protective measures against electrical contact.

Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genn Saji

2006-07-01

The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessonsmore » learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and deposition mechanisms of fuel particles and fission fragments during the initial phase of the Chernobyl accident. Through this study, it is now possible to generally reconstruct the radiological consequences by using a dispersion calculation technique, combined with the meteorological data at the time of the accident and land contamination densities of {sup 137}Cs measured and reported around the Chernobyl area. Although it is challenging to incorporate lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident into the source term issues, the author has already developed an example of safety goals by incorporating the radiological consequences of the accident. The example provides safety goals by specifying source term releases in a graded approach in combination with probabilities, i.e. risks. The author believes that the future source term specification should be directly linked with safety goals. (author)« less

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhegang Ma

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

Application of Non-Deterministic Methods to Assess Modeling Uncertainties for Reinforced Carbon-Carbon Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Fasanella, Edwin L.; Melis, Matthew; Carney, Kelly; Gabrys, Jonathan

2004-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) made several recommendations for improving the NASA Space Shuttle Program. An extensive experimental and analytical program has been developed to address two recommendations related to structural impact analysis. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate the application of probabilistic analysis to assess the effect of uncertainties on debris impacts on Space Shuttle Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. The probabilistic analysis is used to identify the material modeling parameters controlling the uncertainty. A comparison of the finite element results with limited experimental data provided confidence that the simulations were adequately representing the global response of the material. Five input parameters were identified as significantly controlling the response.

Methodology for assessing the safety of Hydrogen Systems: HyRAM 1.1 technical reference manual

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina; Hecht, Ethan; Reynolds, John Thomas

The HyRAM software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen infrastructure and transportation systems. HyRAM is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art science and engineering models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of hydrogen safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM is envisioned as a unifying platform combining validated, analytical models of hydrogen behavior, a stan- dardized, transparent QRA approach, and engineering models and generic data for hydrogen installations. HyRAM is being developed at Sandia National Laboratories for the U. S. De- partment of Energy to increase access to technical data about hydrogen safety andmore » to enable the use of that data to support development and revision of national and international codes and standards. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in the HyRAM version 1.1. HyRAM 1.1 includes generic probabilities for hydrogen equipment fail- ures, probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, and computa- tionally and experimentally validated analytical and first order models of hydrogen release and flame physics. HyRAM 1.1 integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing hydrogen hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from deflagrations), and assessing impact on people and structures. HyRAM is a prototype software in active development and thus the models and data may change. This report will be updated at appropriate developmental intervals.« less

Analysis of traffic accidents in Romania, 2009.

PubMed

Călinoiu, Geovana; Minca, Dana Galieta; Furtunescu, Florentina Ligia

2012-01-01

This paper aimed to underline the main consequences of traffic accidents in Romania 2009 and their associated causes or circumstances. We identified some problematic geographic areas, some critical months or moments of the day and also the most frequent causes; all these should become targets for the future planning. The current analysis provides some priority criteria for public health interventions. So, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Romania is far away from the average EU target for 2010 of halving the death by traffic accidents registered in 2001. To describe the circumstances and the consequences related to traffic accidents registered in Romania, for the year 2009. An ecological study was conducted. The traffic accidents circumstances were analyzed in terms of magnitude, geographic space, time and cause. The consequences were analyzed as affected people and damaged cars. A total of 28,627 traffic accidents were registered in Romania during the year 2009. 2,796 people were killed and 27,968 were hospitalized and 42,443 cars were damaged. 3 of 4 accidents were caused by violations on behalf of the car drivers. Most common violations in car drivers were excess of speed and priority violations (52.4%). Among the pedestrians, 7 of 10 accidents were caused by illegal crossing. A higher number of accidents occurred during the summer months and during the evening hours (from 5.00 pm till 8.00 pm). The traffic accidents represent a real public health problem in Romania and a serious burden for the health system. The gap between Romania and the other EU member states needs to be diminished in the next decade. In this purpose, the future national road safety strategy should be in line with the EU objectives, but also with the national priorities. Research is needed to understand the causes and the socio-economical impact of traffic accidents and to define appropriate national objectives.

Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

2011-01-01

China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential usefulness of quantifying model uncertainty as sensitivity analysis in the PRA model.

Medical and policy considerations for nuclear and radiation accidents, incidents and terrorism.

PubMed

Gale, Robert Peter

2017-11-01

The purpose of this review is to address the increasing medical and public concern regarding the health consequences of radiation exposure, a concern shaped not only by fear of another Chernobyl or Fukushima nuclear power facility accident but also by the intentional use of a nuclear weapon, a radiological dispersion device, a radiological exposure device, or an improved nuclear device by rogue states such as North Korea and terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. The United States has the medical capacity to respond to a limited nuclear or radiation accident or incident but an effective medical response to a catastrophic nuclear event is impossible. Dealing effectively with nuclear and radiation accidents or incidents requires diverse strategies, including policy decisions, public education, and medical preparedness. I review medical consequences of exposures to ionizing radiations, likely concomitant injuries and potential medical intervention. These data should help haematologists and other healthcare professionals understand the principles of medical consequences of nuclear terrorism. However, the best strategy is prevention.

Critical Protection Item classification for a waste processing facility at Savannah River Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ades, M.J.; Garrett, R.J.

1993-10-01

This paper describes the methodology for Critical Protection Item (CPI) classification and its application to the Structures, Systems and Components (SSC) of a waste processing facility at the Savannah River Site (SRS). The WSRC methodology for CPI classification includes the evaluation of the radiological and non-radiological consequences resulting from postulated accidents at the waste processing facility and comparison of these consequences with allowable limits. The types of accidents considered include explosions and fire in the facility and postulated accidents due to natural phenomena, including earthquakes, tornadoes, and high velocity straight winds. The radiological analysis results indicate that CPIs are notmore » required at the waste processing facility to mitigate the consequences of radiological release. The non-radiological analysis, however, shows that the Waste Storage Tank (WST) and the dike spill containment structures around the formic acid tanks in the cold chemical feed area and waste treatment area of the facility should be identified as CPIs. Accident mitigation options are provided and discussed.« less

Analysis on Dangerous Source of Large Safety Accident in Storage Tank Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Tong; Li, Ying; Xie, Tiansheng; Liu, Yu; Zhu, Xueyuan

2018-01-01

The difference between a large safety accident and a general accident is that the consequences of a large safety accident are particularly serious. To study the tank area which factors directly or indirectly lead to the occurrence of large-sized safety accidents. According to the three kinds of hazard source theory and the consequence cause analysis of the super safety accident, this paper analyzes the dangerous source of the super safety accident in the tank area from four aspects, such as energy source, large-sized safety accident reason, management missing, environmental impact Based on the analysis of three kinds of hazard sources and environmental analysis to derive the main risk factors and the AHP evaluation model is established, and after rigorous and scientific calculation, the weights of the related factors in four kinds of risk factors and each type of risk factors are obtained. The result of analytic hierarchy process shows that management reasons is the most important one, and then the environmental factors and the direct cause and Energy source. It should be noted that although the direct cause is relatively low overall importance, the direct cause of Failure of emergency measures and Failure of prevention and control facilities in greater weight.

Fuzzy approach for reducing subjectivity in estimating occupational accident severity.

PubMed

Pinto, Abel; Ribeiro, Rita A; Nunes, Isabel L

2012-03-01

Quantifying or, more generally, estimating the severity of the possible consequences of occupational accidents is a decisive step in any occupational risk assessment process. Because of the lack of historic information (accident data collection and recording are incipient and insufficient, particularly in construction) and the lack of practical tools in the construction industry, the estimation/quantification of occupational accident severity is a notably arbitrary process rather than a systematic and rigorous assessment. This work proposes several severity functions (based on a safety risk assessment) to represent biomechanical knowledge with the aim of determining the severity level of occupational accidents in the construction industry and, consequently, improving occupational risk assessment quality. We follow a fuzzy approach because it makes it possible to capture and represent imprecise knowledge in a simple and understandable way for users and specialists. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the causes and consequences of falls from scaffolding using the Polish construction industry as an example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoła, A.; Hoła, B.; Szóstak, M.

2017-10-01

The results of research published in many publications indicate that the scale of the problem of accidents at work in the construction industry is significant. Fatal and serious accidents, which in the construction industry are often a result of a fall from a height and associated with working on scaffolding, have a particularly strong impact on society. Systematic controls carried out on Polish construction sites indicate irregularities in the area of ensuring safety on scaffolding. As a result of conducted own studies, dozens of accidents caused by falls from scaffolding were selected from the total number of accidents at work in the construction industry and then analysed. The aim of the research was to identify the causes of these accidents and their consequences. The results of studies conducted in this area will be the content of the article.

Categorizing accident sequences in the external radiotherapy for risk analysis

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Purpose This study identifies accident sequences from the past accidents in order to help the risk analysis application to the external radiotherapy. Materials and Methods This study reviews 59 accidental cases in two retrospective safety analyses that have collected the incidents in the external radiotherapy extensively. Two accident analysis reports that accumulated past incidents are investigated to identify accident sequences including initiating events, failure of safety measures, and consequences. This study classifies the accidents by the treatments stages and sources of errors for initiating events, types of failures in the safety measures, and types of undesirable consequences and the number of affected patients. Then, the accident sequences are grouped into several categories on the basis of similarity of progression. As a result, these cases can be categorized into 14 groups of accident sequence. Results The result indicates that risk analysis needs to pay attention to not only the planning stage, but also the calibration stage that is committed prior to the main treatment process. It also shows that human error is the largest contributor to initiating events as well as to the failure of safety measures. This study also illustrates an event tree analysis for an accident sequence initiated in the calibration. Conclusion This study is expected to provide sights into the accident sequences for the prospective risk analysis through the review of experiences. PMID:23865005

Estimates of the economic and human consequences of motor vehicle accidents in Virginia during 1980.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1982-01-01

The purpose of this report is to describe the cost of motor vehicle accidents in two ways first, by identifying the cost components and quantifying them, and second by showing the severity of such accidents in terms of human suffering. Although many ...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

10 CFR 72.24 - Contents of application: Technical information.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... components provided for the prevention of accidents and the mitigation of the consequences of accidents... radiation exposures within the limits given in part 20 of this chapter, and for meeting the objective of... outside the controlled area from accidents or natural phenomena events that result in the release of...

Probabilistic Structural Health Monitoring of the Orbiter Wing Leading Edge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yap, Keng C.; Macias, Jesus; Kaouk, Mohamed; Gafka, Tammy L.; Kerr, Justin H.

2011-01-01

A structural health monitoring (SHM) system can contribute to the risk management of a structure operating under hazardous conditions. An example is the Wing Leading Edge Impact Detection System (WLEIDS) that monitors the debris hazards to the Space Shuttle Orbiter s Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) panels. Since Return-to-Flight (RTF) after the Columbia accident, WLEIDS was developed and subsequently deployed on board the Orbiter to detect ascent and on-orbit debris impacts, so as to support the assessment of wing leading edge structural integrity prior to Orbiter re-entry. As SHM is inherently an inverse problem, the analyses involved, including those performed for WLEIDS, tend to be associated with significant uncertainty. The use of probabilistic approaches to handle the uncertainty has resulted in the successful implementation of many development and application milestones.

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. Likely and by default are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as possibility and necessity. To model these four forms probabilistically, a qualitative default probabilistic (QDP) logic and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequent results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Wheelchair-related accidents: relationship with wheelchair-using behavior in active community wheelchair users.

PubMed

Chen, Wan-Yin; Jang, Yuh; Wang, Jung-Der; Huang, Wen-Ni; Chang, Chan-Chia; Mao, Hui-Fen; Wang, Yen-Ho

2011-06-01

To report the prevalence, mechanisms, self-perceived causes, consequences, and wheelchair-using behaviors associated with wheelchair-related accidents. A case-control study. Community. A sample of experienced, community-dwelling, active manual and powered wheelchair users (N=95) recruited from a hospital assistive technology service center. Not applicable. Wheelchair-using behaviors, wheelchair-related accidents over a 3-year period, and the mechanisms and consequences of the accidents. Among the 95 participants, 52 (54.7%) reported at least 1 accident and 16 (16.8%) reported 2 or more accidents during the 3 years prior to the interview. A total of 74 accidents, were categorized into tips and falls (87.8%), accidental contact (6.8%), and dangerous operations (5.4%). A logistic regression found individuals who failed to maintain their wheelchairs regularly (odds ratio [OR]=11.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.62-48.61) and used a wheelchair not prescribed by professionals (OR=4.31; 95% CI, 1.10-16.82) had significantly greater risks of accidents. In addition to the risk factor, lack of regular wheelchair maintenance, the Poisson regression corroborated the other risk factor, seat belts not used (incident rate ratio=2.14; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14), for wheelchair-related accidents. Wheelchair-related accidents are closely related to their wheelchair-using behaviors. Services including professional evaluation, repair, maintenance, and an educational program on proper wheelchair use may decrease the risks of wheelchair accidents. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Alternative Perspective on von Winterfeldt et al.'s (1997) Test of Consequence Monotonicity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ho, Moon-Ho R.; Regenwetter, Michel; Niederee, Reinhard; Heyer, Dieter

2005-01-01

D. von Winterfeldt, N.-K. Chung, R. D. Luce, and Y. Cho (see record 1997-03378-008) provided several tests for consequence monotonicity of choice or judgment, using certainty equivalents of gambles. The authors reaxiomatized consequence monotonicity in a probabilistic framework and reanalyzed von Winterfeldt et al.'s main experiment via a…

Psychological Distress and Post-Traumatic Symptoms Following Occupational Accidents

PubMed Central

Ghisi, Marta; Novara, Caterina; Buodo, Giulia; Kimble, Matthew O.; Scozzari, Simona; Di Natale, Arianna; Sanavio, Ezio; Palomba, Daniela

2013-01-01

Depression and post-traumatic stress disorder frequently occur as a consequence of occupational accidents. To date, research has been primarily focused on high-risk workers, such as police officers or firefighters, and has rarely considered individuals whose occupational environment involves the risk of severe, but not necessarily life-threatening, injury. Therefore, the present study was aimed at assessing the psychological consequences of accidents occurring in several occupational settings (e.g., construction and industry). Thirty-eight victims of occupational accidents (injured workers) and 38 gender-, age-, and years of education-matched workers who never experienced a work accident (control group) were recruited. All participants underwent a semi-structured interview administered by a trained psychologist, and then were requested to fill in the questionnaires. Injured workers reported more severe anxious, post-traumatic and depressive symptoms, and poorer coping skills, as compared to controls. In the injured group low levels of resilience predicted post-traumatic symptomatology, whereas the degree of physical injury and the length of time since the accident did not play a predictive role. The results suggest that occupational accidents may result in a disabling psychopathological condition, and that a brief psychological evaluation should be included in the assessment of seriously injured workers. PMID:25379258

Biomedical Lessons from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-10-01

Lessons From the Lt Col Doris Browne, MC Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant Accident The Chernobyl nuclear accident afforded the treating physicians a...radiation accident posited on the skin and mucous mem- A Lt Col Dori Browne, MC, is Chief, Medicaloccurred at the Chernobyl nuclear branes from the molten...Conclusion ulcers of oral mucosa, which required irradiation. He also had persistent The consequences ot the Chernobyl sterile saline irrigation and

77 FR 50534 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-21

...) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously... statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor...

75 FR 30440 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-01

... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

76 FR 67485 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-01

... [email protected] . Federal Rulemaking Web Site: Public comments and supporting materials related... increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a...

Aftereffect Calculation and Prediction of Methanol Tank Leak’s Environmental Risk Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Yueting; Zheng, Lina; Chen, Henan; Wang, Qiushi; Jiang, Hui; Pan, Yiwen

2018-01-01

With the increasing frequency of environmental risk accidents, more emphasis was placed on environmental risk assessment. In this article, the aftermath of an Environmental Risk Accident on Methanol Tank Leakage occurred on a cryogenic unit area in a certain oilfield processing plant have been mainly calculated and predicted. Major hazards were identified through the major hazards identification on dangerous chemicals, which could afterwards analyze maximum credible accident and confirm source item and the source intensity. In the end, the consequence of the accident has been calculated so that the impact on surrounding environment can be predicted after the accident.

FLAMMABLE GAS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KRIPPS, L.J.

2005-02-18

This document describes the qualitative evaluation of frequency and consequences for double shell tank (DST) and single shell tank (SST) representative flammable gas accidents and associated hazardous conditions without controls. The evaluation indicated that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRS were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Discussion on the resulting control decisions is included. This technical basis document was developed to support of the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and describes the risk binning process for the flammable gas representative accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the needmore » for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition based on an evaluation of the event frequency and consequence.« less

Fuzzy Bayesian Network-Bow-Tie Analysis of Gas Leakage during Biomass Gasification

PubMed Central

Yan, Fang; Xu, Kaili; Yao, Xiwen; Li, Yang

2016-01-01

Biomass gasification technology has been rapidly developed recently. But fire and poisoning accidents caused by gas leakage restrict the development and promotion of biomass gasification. Therefore, probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is necessary for biomass gasification system. Subsequently, Bayesian network-bow-tie (BN-bow-tie) analysis was proposed by mapping bow-tie analysis into Bayesian network (BN). Causes of gas leakage and the accidents triggered by gas leakage can be obtained by bow-tie analysis, and BN was used to confirm the critical nodes of accidents by introducing corresponding three importance measures. Meanwhile, certain occurrence probability of failure was needed in PSA. In view of the insufficient failure data of biomass gasification, the occurrence probability of failure which cannot be obtained from standard reliability data sources was confirmed by fuzzy methods based on expert judgment. An improved approach considered expert weighting to aggregate fuzzy numbers included triangular and trapezoidal numbers was proposed, and the occurrence probability of failure was obtained. Finally, safety measures were indicated based on the obtained critical nodes. The theoretical occurrence probabilities in one year of gas leakage and the accidents caused by it were reduced to 1/10.3 of the original values by these safety measures. PMID:27463975

Flammable gas technical basis document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-22

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls.

78 FR 60321 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-01

... sample selection. A steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) event is one of the design basis accidents that... in the design basis accident analysis. The proposed change will not cause the consequences of a SGTR... changes to the plant design basis or postulated accidents resulting from potential tube degradation. The...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

PIEPHO, M.G.

Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

78 FR 77729 - Biweekly Notice: Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-24

... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on which the requestor/ petitioner...

78 FR 15747 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-12

... consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident previously evaluated; or (3) involve a significant reduction in a margin of... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

75 FR 26287 - Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving Proposed No...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-11

... amendment would not (1) involve a significant increase in the probability or consequences of an accident previously evaluated; or (2) create the possibility of a new or different kind of accident from any accident... contention and a concise statement of the alleged facts or expert opinion which support the contention and on...

77 FR 51071 - Indiana Michigan Power Company, Donald C. Cook Nuclear Plant, Unit 2, Environmental Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-23

... adversely affect plant safety, and would have no adverse effect on the probability of any accident. For the accidents that involve damage or melting of the fuel in the reactor core, fuel rod integrity has been shown to be unaffected by extended burnup under consideration; therefore, the consequences of an accident...

Development and application of the dynamic system doctor to nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kunsman, David Marvin; Aldemir, Tunc; Rutt, Benjamin

2008-05-01

This LDRD project has produced a tool that makes probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) of nuclear reactors - analyses which are very resource intensive - more efficient. PRAs of nuclear reactors are being increasingly relied on by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.N.R.C.) for licensing decisions for current and advanced reactors. Yet, PRAs are produced much as they were 20 years ago. The work here applied a modern systems analysis technique to the accident progression analysis portion of the PRA; the technique was a system-independent multi-task computer driver routine. Initially, the objective of the work was to fuse the accidentmore » progression event tree (APET) portion of a PRA to the dynamic system doctor (DSD) created by Ohio State University. Instead, during the initial efforts, it was found that the DSD could be linked directly to a detailed accident progression phenomenological simulation code - the type on which APET construction and analysis relies, albeit indirectly - and thereby directly create and analyze the APET. The expanded DSD computational architecture and infrastructure that was created during this effort is called ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees). ADAPT is a system software infrastructure that supports execution and analysis of multiple dynamic event-tree simulations on distributed environments. A simulator abstraction layer was developed, and a generic driver was implemented for executing simulators on a distributed environment. As a demonstration of the use of the methodological tool, ADAPT was applied to quantify the likelihood of competing accident progression pathways occurring for a particular accident scenario in a particular reactor type using MELCOR, an integrated severe accident analysis code developed at Sandia. (ADAPT was intentionally created with flexibility, however, and is not limited to interacting with only one code. With minor coding changes to input files, ADAPT can be linked to other such codes.) The results of this demonstration indicate that the approach can significantly reduce the resources required for Level 2 PRAs. From the phenomenological viewpoint, ADAPT can also treat the associated epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. This methodology can also be used for analyses of other complex systems. Any complex system can be analyzed using ADAPT if the workings of that system can be displayed as an event tree, there is a computer code that simulates how those events could progress, and that simulator code has switches to turn on and off system events, phenomena, etc. Using and applying ADAPT to particular problems is not human independent. While the human resources for the creation and analysis of the accident progression are significantly decreased, knowledgeable analysts are still necessary for a given project to apply ADAPT successfully. This research and development effort has met its original goals and then exceeded them.« less

General RMP Guidance - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Risk Management Programs for Chemical Accident Prevention (40 CFR Part 68) guidance is in chapters; each covering topics such as applicability of the rule, and requirements for reporting five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis.

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... consequences of a launch site accident are contained and minimized; (2) Ensure data and physical evidence are...) Description of the event; (iv) Number of injuries, if any, and general description of types of injuries...

Liquid and gaseous oxygen safety review, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lapin, A.

1972-01-01

Practices employed in the oxygen systems maintenance programs to minimize both accident probabilities and consequences of accidents and/or incidents are described. Appropriate sections of the operations department and industrial gas operating manuals are discussed.

The Tokaimura Nuclear Accident: A Tragedy of Human Errors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Michael E.

2001-01-01

Discusses nuclear power and the consequences of a nuclear accident. Covers issues ranging from chemical process safety to risk management of chemical industries to the ethical responsibilities of the chemical engineer. (Author/ASK)

Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

PubMed

Sagberg, F

1999-11-01

About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately preceding such accidents may give a better background for implementing effective driver warning systems and other countermeasures.

The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

PubMed

Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

2011-05-01

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims were affected by their accident even 2 years after it occurred. The severity of lesions induced by the accident was the main predictive factor. However, considering lesion as intermediary factors between the accident and the recovery status at 2 year post-accident, impact on health status was lower for cyclists than M4W users or M2W users. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

40 CFR 68.22 - Offsite consequence analysis parameters.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.22 Offsite consequence analysis parameters. (a) Endpoints. For analyses of offsite consequences, the following endpoints shall be...

Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2006-01-01

System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

Thirty years after the Chernobyl accident: What lessons have we learnt?

PubMed

Beresford, N A; Fesenko, S; Konoplev, A; Skuterud, L; Smith, J T; Voigt, G

2016-06-01

April 2016 sees the 30(th) anniversary of the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. As a consequence of the accident populations were relocated in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine and remedial measures were put in place to reduce the entry of contaminants (primarily (134+137)Cs) into the human food chain in a number of countries throughout Europe. Remedial measures are still today in place in a number of countries, and areas of the former Soviet Union remain abandoned. The Chernobyl accident led to a large resurgence in radioecological studies both to aid remediation and to be able to make future predictions on the post-accident situation, but, also in recognition that more knowledge was required to cope with future accidents. In this paper we discuss, what in the authors' opinions, were the advances made in radioecology as a consequence of the Chernobyl accident. The areas we identified as being significantly advanced following Chernobyl were: the importance of semi-natural ecosystems in human dose formation; the characterisation and environmental behaviour of 'hot particles'; the development and application of countermeasures; the "fixation" and long term bioavailability of radiocaesium and; the effects of radiation on plants and animals. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Modeling the effectiveness of oil combating from an ecological perspective--a Bayesian network for the Gulf of Finland; the Baltic Sea.

PubMed

Helle, Inari; Lecklin, Tiina; Jolma, Ari; Kuikka, Sakari

2011-01-15

Maritime traffic poses a major threat to marine ecosystems in the form of oil spills. The Gulf of Finland, the easternmost part of the Baltic Sea, has witnessed a rapid increase in oil transportation during the last 15 years. Should a spill occur, the negative ecological impacts may be reduced by oil combating, the effectiveness of which is, however, strongly dependent on prevailing environmental conditions and available technical resources. This poses increased uncertainty related to ecological consequences of future spills. We developed a probabilistic Bayesian network model that can be used to assess the effectiveness of different oil combating strategies in minimizing the negative effects of oil on six species living in the Gulf of Finland. The model can be used for creating different accident scenarios and assessing the performance of various oil combating actions under uncertainty, which enables its use as a supportive tool in decision-making. While the model is confined to the western Gulf of Finland, the methodology is adaptable to other marine areas facing similar risks and challenges related to oil spills. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1981-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis techniques, i.e., event tree and fault tree analysis, were utilized to provide a risk assessment of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1. Browns Ferry 1 is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR 4 product line with a Mark 1 (drywell and torus) containment. Within the guidelines of the IREP Procedure and Schedule Guide, dominant accident sequences that contribute to public health and safety risks were identified and grouped according to release categories.

Flammable Gas Technical Basis Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from ORP.

"What--me worry?" "Why so serious?": a personal view on the Fukushima nuclear reactor accidents.

PubMed

Gallucci, Raymond

2012-09-01

Infrequently, it seems that a significant accident precursor or, worse, an actual accident, involving a commercial nuclear power reactor occurs to remind us of the need to reexamine the safety of this important electrical power technology from a risk perspective. Twenty-five years since the major core damage accident at Chernobyl in the Ukraine, the Fukushima reactor complex in Japan experienced multiple core damages as a result of an earthquake-induced tsunami beyond either the earthquake or tsunami design basis for the site. Although the tsunami itself killed tens of thousands of people and left the area devastated and virtually uninhabitable, much concern still arose from the potential radioactive releases from the damaged reactors, even though there was little population left in the area to be affected. As a lifelong probabilistic safety analyst in nuclear engineering, even I must admit to a recurrence of the doubt regarding nuclear power safety after Fukushima that I had experienced after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. This article is my attempt to "recover" my personal perspective on acceptable risk by examining both the domestic and worldwide history of commercial nuclear power plant accidents and attempting to quantify the risk in terms of the frequency of core damage that one might glean from a review of operational history. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

After Fukushima: managing the consequences of a radiological release.

PubMed

Fitzgerald, Joe; Wollner, Samuel B; Adalja, Amesh A; Morhard, Ryan; Cicero, Anita; Inglesby, Thomas V

2012-06-01

Even amidst the devastation following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan that killed more than 20,000 people, it was the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant that led the country's prime minister, Naoto Kan, to fear for "the very existence of the Japanese nation." While accidents that result in mass radiological releases have been rare throughout the operating histories of existing nuclear power plants, the growing number of plants worldwide increases the likelihood that such releases will occur again in the future. Nuclear power is an important source of energy in the U.S. and will be for the foreseeable future. Accidents far smaller in scale than the one in Fukushima could have major societal consequences. Given the extensive, ongoing Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and industry assessment of nuclear power plant safety and preparedness issues, the Center for Biosecurity of UPMC focused on offsite policies and plans intended to reduce radiation exposure to the public in the aftermath of an accident. This report provides an assessment of Japan's efforts at nuclear consequence management; identifies concerns with current U.S. policies and practices for "outside the fence" management of such an event in the U.S.; and makes recommendations for steps that can be taken to strengthen U.S. government, industry, and community response to large-scale accidents at nuclear power plants.

Risk Assessment for Emergency Planning Related to Nuclear Weapons Accidents

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-25

accidents is higher than many of the other accidents, several reviewers thought it appropriate to evaluate these accidents in more detail. In particular, it...consequences is presented in Table 2-5. The plutonium releases in the 1F-3F gram range are due to plutonium burning in Type A weapons, while the higher ...explosion given a tanker casualty varies from 0.05 (in harbor) to 0.16 (at pier) to 0.19 (at sea). Although these numbers are somewhat higher than the

Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

PubMed

Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

2010-11-15

The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mitigating the consequences of accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

If an accident occurs, effective strategies must be available to minimize the effects in terms of loss of life, injury, and property damage. The Volpe Center's work in this area is reviewed in this report. It ranges from occupant protection strategie...

Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

PubMed

Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

2008-07-15

In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

Road casualties in work-related and private contexts: Occupational medical impact: Results from the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Fort, E; Pélissier, C; Fanjas, A; Charnay, P; Charbotel, B; Bergeret, A; Fontana, L; Hours, M

2018-05-22

Road accidents may impact victims' physical and/or mental health and socio-occupational life, notably including return to work. To assess whether the occupational medical consequences sustained by subjects injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context differ from those associated with private accidents. 778 adults who were in work or occupational training at the time of their accident were included. Two groups were distinguished: 354 (45.5%) injured in road accidents occurring in a work-related context (commuting or on duty) and 424 (54.5%) injured in a private accident. The groups were compared on medical and occupational factors assessed on prospective follow-up at 6 months and 1 and 3 years. Multivariate analysis explored for factors associated at 6 months and 1 year with sick leave following the accident and duration of sick leave. There were no significant differences between groups for demographic data apart from a slightly higher injury severity in private accidents (32.5% of private accidents with MAIS3+(Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale greater or equal to 3) vs. 23.7% for work-related accidents, p = 0.007). Victims of work-related accidents were more often on sick leave (OR = 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.9). Although the length of sick leave is higher for work-related accidents that for private accidents, multivariate analysis showed that the injury severity and the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) are significant factors to explain the time to return to work. There were no significant differences according to occupational impact during follow-up, notably including sick-leave duration, number of victims returning to work within 3 years and number of victims out of work due to incapacity. In the ESPARR (follow-up study of a road-accident population in the Rhône administrative county: Etude de Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route dans le Rhône) cohort, the fact that a road accident occurred in a work-related context did not affect the occupational consequences.

Patterns and consequences of inadequate sleep in college students: substance use and motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Taylor, Daniel J; Bramoweth, Adam D

2010-06-01

We examined college sleep patterns and consequences using a cross-sectional design. We found that students get insufficient sleep and frequently use medication and alcohol as sleep aids, use stimulants as alertness aids, and fall asleep at the wheel, or have motor vehicle accidents due to sleepiness. Future studies should focus on effective interventions for sleep in college students. Copyright 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, James T.

2003-01-01

Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) Tutorial

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. L. Smith; S. T. Beck; S. T. Wood

2008-08-01

The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of computer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessment (PRAs). This volume is the tutorial manual for the SAPHIRE system. In this document, a series of lessons are provided that guide the user through basic steps common to most analyses preformed with SAPHIRE. The tutorial is divided into two major sections covering both basic and advanced features. The section covering basic topics contains lessons that lead the reader through development of a probabilistic hypothetical problem involving a vehicle accident, highlighting the program’smore » most fundamental features. The advanced features section contains additional lessons that expand on fundamental analysis features of SAPHIRE and provide insights into more complex analysis techniques. Together, these two elements provide an overview into the operation and capabilities of the SAPHIRE software.« less

Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.

1986-01-01

Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effectivemore » alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.« less

Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

2014-11-01

As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray

1990-01-01

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Significance testing as perverse probabilistic reasoning

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Truth claims in the medical literature rely heavily on statistical significance testing. Unfortunately, most physicians misunderstand the underlying probabilistic logic of significance tests and consequently often misinterpret their results. This near-universal misunderstanding is highlighted by means of a simple quiz which we administered to 246 physicians at two major academic hospitals, on which the proportion of incorrect responses exceeded 90%. A solid understanding of the fundamental concepts of probability theory is becoming essential to the rational interpretation of medical information. This essay provides a technically sound review of these concepts that is accessible to a medical audience. We also briefly review the debate in the cognitive sciences regarding physicians' aptitude for probabilistic inference. PMID:21356064

"It Can Bust at Any Seam": Lessons for Deep Space Flight from Mawson's 1911-1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Phillip Scott

2010-09-01

Lessons useful for manned space flight can be gained by looking at exploring expeditions of the past. An aviation-accident style investigation was conducted on two fatalities that occurred on an Antarctic expedition in 1912-13. The causal factors of the accidents were determined; and lessons for future missions beyond LEO gleaned from both the causal factors and from looking at the expedition as a whole. The investigation highlighted, among other things, that probabilistic hazards can eventually take a life and that factors of terrain can and will damage equipment and kill men; that consumables should be segregated such that one mishap does not reduce margins to below those needed for survival, and that manned missions need to be able to jury-rig equipment in the field.

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

Engineering thinking in emergency situations: A new nuclear safety concept

PubMed Central

Guarnieri, Franck; Travadel, Sébastien

2014-01-01

The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident have focused on preventive measures designed to protect nuclear reactors, and crisis management plans. Although there is still no end in sight to the accident that occurred on March 11, 2011, how engineers have handled the aftermath offers new insight into the capacity of organizations to adapt in situations that far exceed the scope of safety standards based on probabilistic risk assessment and on the comprehensive identification of disaster scenarios. Ongoing crises in which conventional resources are lacking, but societal expectations are high, call for “engineering thinking in emergency situations.” This is a new concept that emphasizes adaptability and resilience within organizations—such as the ability to create temporary new organizational structures; to quickly switch from a normal state to an innovative mode; and to integrate a social dimension into engineering activities. In the future, nuclear safety oversight authorities should assess the ability of plant operators to create and implement effective engineering strategies on the fly, and should require that operators demonstrate the capability for resilience in the aftermath of an accident. PMID:25419015

Engineering thinking in emergency situations: A new nuclear safety concept.

PubMed

Guarnieri, Franck; Travadel, Sébastien

2014-11-01

The lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident have focused on preventive measures designed to protect nuclear reactors, and crisis management plans. Although there is still no end in sight to the accident that occurred on March 11, 2011, how engineers have handled the aftermath offers new insight into the capacity of organizations to adapt in situations that far exceed the scope of safety standards based on probabilistic risk assessment and on the comprehensive identification of disaster scenarios. Ongoing crises in which conventional resources are lacking, but societal expectations are high, call for "engineering thinking in emergency situations." This is a new concept that emphasizes adaptability and resilience within organizations-such as the ability to create temporary new organizational structures; to quickly switch from a normal state to an innovative mode; and to integrate a social dimension into engineering activities. In the future, nuclear safety oversight authorities should assess the ability of plant operators to create and implement effective engineering strategies on the fly, and should require that operators demonstrate the capability for resilience in the aftermath of an accident.

Probabilistic and deterministic evaluation of uncertainty in a local scale multi-risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

2009-04-01

We performed a probabilistic multi-risk analysis (QPRA) at the local scale for a 420 km2 area surrounding the town of Brescia (Northern Italy). We calculated the expected annual loss in terms of economical damage and life loss, for a set of risk scenarios of flood, earthquake and industrial accident with different occurrence probabilities and different intensities. The territorial unit used for the study was the census parcel, of variable area, for which a large amount of data was available. Due to the lack of information related to the evaluation of the hazards, to the value of the exposed elements (e.g., residential and industrial area, population, lifelines, sensitive elements as schools, hospitals) and to the process-specific vulnerability, and to a lack of knowledge of the processes (floods, industrial accidents, earthquakes), we assigned an uncertainty to the input variables of the analysis. For some variables an homogeneous uncertainty was assigned on the whole study area, as for instance for the number of buildings of various typologies, and for the event occurrence probability. In other cases, as for phenomena intensity (e.g.,depth of water during flood) and probability of impact, the uncertainty was defined in relation to the census parcel area. In fact assuming some variables homogeneously diffused or averaged on the census parcels, we introduce a larger error for larger parcels. We propagated the uncertainty in the analysis using three different models, describing the reliability of the output (risk) as a function of the uncertainty of the inputs (scenarios and vulnerability functions). We developed a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation, and two deterministic models, namely First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Point Estimate (PE). In general, similar values of expected losses are obtained with the three models. The uncertainty of the final risk value is in the three cases around the 30% of the expected value. Each of the models, nevertheless, requires different assumptions and computational efforts, and provides results with different level of detail.

Quantitative analysis of factors that affect oil pipeline network accident based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chao; Qin, Ting Xin; Huang, Shuai; Wu, Jian Song; Meng, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

Some factors can affect the consequences of oil pipeline accident and their effects should be analyzed to improve emergency preparation and emergency response. Although there are some qualitative analysis models of risk factors' effects, the quantitative analysis model still should be researched. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian network (BN) model of risk factors' effects analysis in an oil pipeline accident case that happened in China. The incident evolution diagram is built to identify the risk factors. And the BN model is built based on the deployment rule for factor nodes in BN and the expert knowledge by Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Then the probabilities of incident consequences and risk factors' effects can be calculated. The most likely consequences given by this model are consilient with the case. Meanwhile, the quantitative estimations of risk factors' effects may provide a theoretical basis to take optimal risk treatment measures for oil pipeline management, which can be used in emergency preparation and emergency response.

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence... released in pounds; (7) Release rate; (8) Release duration; (9) Wind speed and atmospheric stability class...

Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-31

twenty years later: http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/2008/goiania.html IAEA Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their...findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines

[Analisys of work-related accidents and incidents in an oil refinery in Rio de Janeiro].

PubMed

de Souza, Carlos Augusto Vaz; de Freitas, Carlos Machado

2003-01-01

Accidents in the chemical industry can have serious consequences for workers, communities, and the environment and are thus highly relevant to public health. This article is the result of an occupational surveillance project involving several public institutions. We analyze 800 work-related accidents that resulted in injuries, environmental damage, or loss of production in 1997 in an oil refinery located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology was based on managerial and organizational approaches to accident investigation, with the European Union reporting system as the reference. The results highlight various limitations in the process of reporting and investigating accidents, as well as a certain hierarchy of accidents, with more attention given to accidents involving loss of production and less to those resulting in injuries, particularly among outsourced workers.

[Medical protection during radiation accidents: some results and lessons of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Legeza, V I; Grebeniuk, A N; Zatsepin, V V

2011-01-01

Actions of medical radiation protection of liquidators of consequences of on Chernobyl atomic power station accident are analysed. It is shown, that during the early period of the accident medical protection of liquidators was provided by administration of radioprotectors, means of prophylaxis: of radioactive iodine incorporation and agent for preventing psychological and emotional stress. When carrying out decontamination and regenerative works, preparations which action is caused by increase of nonspecific resistance of an organism were applied. The lessons taken from the results of the Chernobyl accident, have allowed one to improve the system of medical protection and to introduce in practice new highly effective radioprotective agents.

[Accidents at work and occupational diseases trend in agriculture insurance management. The contribution of INAIL data's for the knowledge of a worrying phenomenon].

PubMed

Calandriello, Luigi; Goggiamani, Angela; Ienzi, Emanuela; Naldini, Silvia; Orsini, Dario

2013-01-01

The author's describe accidents at work and occupational diseases outcome's measure in Agricolture insurance management acquired through statistical approach based on data processing provided by INAIL Bank data. Accident's incidence in Agricolture is compared to main insurance managements, using frequency index of accidents appearance selected on line of work and type of consequence. Concerning occupational diseases the authors describes the complaints and compensation with the comparison referring the analysis to statistical general data. The data define a worrying phenomenon.

[Genetic effects in the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident].

PubMed

Liaginskaia, A M; Tukov, A R; Osipov, V A; Prokhorova, O N

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present research was the estimation of probable genetic consequences at the liquidators of the consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986-1987. The research is made on two groups of the liquidators. The first group included the liquidators taking place on the account in the branch register and working now at the enterprises of a nuclear industry. The second group included 902 liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident in 1986 constantly living in the Ryazan area and which are taking place on permanent observation the account in regional hospital. For an estimation of probable genetic effects analyzed the data on frequency and outcomes pregnancy of the wives of the liquidators, on condition and on diseases of newborn, on switching intrauterine development defects (IDD). The analysis carried out depending on dozes of an irradiation: up to 5 cGy; 5-10 cGy and 10-25 cGy. Received materials testify, that at the liquidators, at a doze of an external irradiation 10-25 cGy, the determined effects--period long sterility, kept at a part them till 3 years come to light. The set of the received data, such as depending from the dose increase of frequency of spontaneous abortions and of inherent defects of development of newborn, the increase of frequency diseases of newborn and share newborn with low weight, allows to make a conclusion about an induction of genetic effects in sexual cells of the liquidators of consequences of Chernobyl accident at dozes of an external irradiation more than 10 cGy. Taking into account high biological efficiency of alpha-radiation (K = 20), and of beta-radiation (K = 2-4), the equivalent effective doze male gonads (testes) in 3-5 times is higher, than estimated only from external gamma-radiation.

Immunogenetic Approach to Prognosis of Military Specialists’ Health Status

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-01

of Ukraine which have been polluted with radionuclides deposited as a consequence of the Chernobyl Atomic Power Station accident. Therefore, an...tendency to the development of immunodeficiency was typical for participants who took part in the cleanup operations following the Chernobyl accident. This

Assessing the safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems: A bowtie analysis approach.

PubMed

Ehlers, Ute Christine; Ryeng, Eirin Olaussen; McCormack, Edward; Khan, Faisal; Ehlers, Sören

2017-02-01

The safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) are mostly unknown and associated with uncertainties, because these systems represent emerging technology. This study proposes a bowtie analysis as a conceptual framework for evaluating the safety effect of cooperative intelligent transport systems. These seek to prevent road traffic accidents or mitigate their consequences. Under the assumption of the potential occurrence of a particular single vehicle accident, three case studies demonstrate the application of the bowtie analysis approach in road traffic safety. The approach utilizes exemplary expert estimates and knowledge from literature on the probability of the occurrence of accident risk factors and of the success of safety measures. Fuzzy set theory is applied to handle uncertainty in expert knowledge. Based on this approach, a useful tool is developed to estimate the effects of safety-related cooperative intelligent transport systems in terms of the expected change in accident occurrence and consequence probability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accidents on hospital wards.

PubMed Central

Levene, S; Bonfield, G

1991-01-01

Eight hospitals reported 781 non-iatrogenic accidents occurring to patients and visitors under 16 years of age during an 18 month period up to October 1989. Accidents more often involved boys and children aged 3 to 5 years old. Falls from a height, slips, and striking accidents were common by day and falls by night. A total of 41% of accidents to inpatients occurred when parents were present. Only three accidents were serious. Altogether 27% involved beds and cots, and only one consequent injury was more than minor. Data collected routinely in case of medicolegal action can be presented in a form that may facilitate preventative work. Potentially remediable causes for concern include falls from beds and cots and the use of makeshift equipment. PMID:1929510

Analysis on tank truck accidents involved in road hazardous materials transportation in china.

PubMed

Shen, Xiaoyan; Yan, Ying; Li, Xiaonan; Xie, Chenjiang; Wang, Lihua

2014-01-01

Due to the sheer size and capacity of the tanker and the properties of cargo transported in the tank, hazmat tanker accidents are more disastrous than other types of vehicle accidents. The aim of this study was to provide a current survey on the situation of accidents involving tankers transporting hazardous materials in China. Detailed descriptions of 708 tanker accidents associated with hazmat transportation in China from 2004 to 2011 were analyzed to identify causes, location, types, time of occurrence, hazard class for materials involved, consequences, and the corresponding probability. Hazmat tanker accidents mainly occurred in eastern (38.1%) and southwest China (12.3%). The most frequent hazmat tanker accidents involved classes 2, 3, and 8. The predominant accident types were rollover (29.10%), run-off-the-road (16.67%), and rear-end collisions (13.28%), with a high likelihood of a large spill occurring. About 55.93% of the accidents occurred on freeways and class 1 roads, with the spill percentage reaching 75.00% and the proportion of spills that occurred in the total accidents amounting to 77.82%, of which 61.72% are considered large spills. The month with the highest accident probability was July (12.29%), and most crashes occurred during the early morning (4:00-6:00 a.m.) and midday (10:00 a.m.-12:00 p.m.) hours, 19.63% versus 16.10%. Human-related errors (73.8%) and vehicle-related defects (19.6%) were the primary reasons for hazmat tanker crashes. The most common outcomes of a hazmat tanker accident was a spill without further events (55.51%), followed by a release with fire (7.77%), and release with an explosion (2.54%). The safety situation of China's hazmat tanker transportation is grim. Such accidents not only have high spill percentages and consistently large spills but they can also cause serious consequences, such as fires and explosions. Improving the training of drivers and the quality of vehicles, deploying roll stability aids, enhancing vehicle inspection and maintenance, and developing good delivery schedules may all be considered effective measures for mitigating hazmat tanker accidents, especially severe crashes.

Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-19

The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST).more » A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.« less

[Radiobiology and the lessons of Chernobyl].

PubMed

Baraboĭ, V A

1990-01-01

The Chernobyl accident has marked the beginning of a new stage of radiobiology development and revealed scantiness of old concepts. One should (1) search for effective protectors against the long-term influence of low-level radiation and means of removal of radionuclides using criteria that differ principally from those used previously in selecting among nontoxic antioxidants, immunomodulators, and adaptogens; (2) study systematically the synergism of low doses of harmful agents and review the hygienic standardization system with due regard for the risk from their combinations; (3) consider comprehensively, on the basis of the experimental and clinical experience, the problem of "hot" particles and remote consequences of their influence on the respiratory and digestive systems; (4) study independently the problem of chronic stress as a combination of radiation effects and psycho-emotional consequences of the accident and living in the exposed areas; (5) consider it inadmissible to include in the B category the population of the districts influenced by the accident and to use the concept: "35 rads during the lifetime" in standardizing the radiation load; (6) organize a comprehensive analysis of the Chernobyl accident consequences for public health within the contaminated areas as well as for animals and plants using a single approved methodology and programme, the principle of "other equal conditions" being provided.

Less than severe worst case accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanders, G.A.

1996-08-01

Many systems can provide tremendous benefit if operating correctly, produce only an inconvenience if they fail to operate, but have extreme consequences if they are only partially disabled such that they operate erratically or prematurely. In order to assure safety, systems are often tested against the most severe environments and accidents that are considered possible to ensure either safe operation or safe failure. However, it is often the less severe environments which result in the ``worst case accident`` since these are the conditions in which part of the system may be exposed or rendered unpredictable prior to total system failure.more » Some examples of less severe mechanical, thermal, and electrical environments which may actually be worst case are described as cautions for others in industries with high consequence operations or products.« less

Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

PubMed

Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

2013-08-01

To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on accidents involving two-wheeled vehicles that most often involves a single person, unskilled, male, at nighttime, on weekends and on roads where they travel at higher speeds.

The analysis outlining the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the firefighters employed by the State Fire Service in Poland in 2008-2013.

PubMed

Pawlak, Agata; Gotlib, Joanna; Gałązkowski, Robert

2016-01-01

Due to the specifics of their work and to being exposed to a wide range of hazards, firefighters working for the State Fire Service (SFS) face the risk of work-related accidents more often than members of other occupational groups. The aim of this paper is to analyze the occurrence and consequences of accidents in the work environment of the SFS officers in Poland between the years 2008-2013. The material analyzed is based on aggregate data collected by the Headquarters of the State Fire Service. Figures regarding accidents in the period between 1 January 2008 and 31 December 2013 show that 8518 work-related accidents occurred in that period and 8635 people were injured. The data shows that neither the number of accidents nor their frequency indicator underwent any significant fluctuations over the 6 years under consideration. The group that is most exposed to accidents on duty in the profession includes active firefighters serving in rescue and fire extinguishment divisions. According to the data, the greatest number of trauma incidents in the SFS between the years 2008-2013 occurred during sporting activities. The predominant cause of these was inappropriate behavior or the lack of proper care. The most frequent injuries sustained during the accidents were broken or fractured bones and sprained joints. Accidents on duty occur significantly more often when firefighters are at their stations, during sporting classes, exercises or maneuvers, than in the course of actual rescue operations. The firefighters of the State Fire Services are insufficiently prepared for their sporting activities. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

[Study on standards for safe and health-protective zone in firework plant].

PubMed

Wu, Y; Wang, Q; Shi, J; Shao, Q

1999-03-30

A retrospective investigation on technology and situation in the production of fireworks, the cause and hazard consequences of accidents in blossom firework enterprises was carried out. The risk factors and their origins, the potential effects on surrounding environments and residents, the manufacture processes producing special potential energy in these enterprises were summarized and assessed. In addition, the consequences of explosive fire accidents were assessed retrospectively by the principle of explosion mechanics and Hopkinson Scaling Law. The safe and health-protective zone of the blossom firework plant was suggested.

An Approach for Assessing Consequences of Potential Supply Chain and Insider Contributed Cyber Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chu, Tsong-Lun; Varuttamaseni, Athi; Baek, Joo-Seok

This paper provides an approach for developing potential attacks on I and C systems of NPPs and assessing their consequences. An important concept is that the NPPs were not designed to cope with Stuxnet-type of attacks (and any other cyber attacks). That is, the plants were only designed for design basis accidents. The safety margins and redundancies built in the design are all based on design basis accidents. They may be helpful in mitigating cyberattacks, but may not be adequate.

Single, Complete, Probability Spaces Consistent With EPR-Bohm-Bell Experimental Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avis, David; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid; Khrennikov, Andrei

2009-03-01

We show that paradoxical consequences of violations of Bell's inequality are induced by the use of an unsuitable probabilistic description for the EPR-Bohm-Bell experiment. The conventional description (due to Bell) is based on a combination of statistical data collected for different settings of polarization beam splitters (PBSs). In fact, such data consists of some conditional probabilities which only partially define a probability space. Ignoring this conditioning leads to apparent contradictions in the classical probabilistic model (due to Kolmogorov). We show how to make a completely consistent probabilistic model by taking into account the probabilities of selecting the settings of the PBSs. Our model matches both the experimental data and is consistent with classical probability theory.

Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers. Risk factors for negative changes.

PubMed

Buzunov, V O; Loganovsky, K N; Krasnikova, L I; Bomko, M O; Belyaev, Yu M; Yaroshenko, Zh S; Domashevska, T Ye

2016-12-01

It is generally recognized that the Chornobyl nuclear accident caused strong psychosocial stress affecting the entire population of Ukraine, primarily people involved in recovery operations. But what are the reasons? What is the struc ture of stressors? What are their social, medical and biological consequences, what are strategy and preventive meas ures? Issues that require special research and development. To study social and psychological state of the Chornobyl cleanup workers 1986-1987, and to determine regularities of changes and dangerous risk factors. On the basis of Polyclinic of Radiation Registry, NRCRM, we conducted sample epidemiolog ical study of social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987. We used method of inter viewing based on «questionnaire», specially developed for this purpose. The study was conducted in October 2013 - May 2015. The sample numbered 235 males aged 18-50 at the time of the accident. Their average age was (31.3 ± 5.3) years at the time of the accident and (58.9 ± 5.3) at the time of survey. The results revealed that the Chornobyl nuclear accident and its consequences caused strong social and psychological stress among clean up workers 1986-1987. We have identified a set of factors closely related to the Chornobyl accident, they have caused a sustainable development of mental syndrome - «Anxiety about their own health and the health of family members, especially children». The other set of stressors which are not closely relat ed to the Chornobyl accident but are the result of the social and economic, social and political situation in the coun try. However the former was found to be the cause of such a psychological state as «dissatisfaction with the com pleteness and quality of life». Social and psychological state of the Chornobyl clean up workers 1986-1987 is estimated as «poor» and it integrally can be characterized as a state of chronic psychosocial stress. Mental syndrome «Anxiety about per sonal health and the health of family members» and psychological syndrome «Dissatisfaction with living condi tions» are main consequences of this state. We identified the main stressors closely related to the consequences of the Chornobyl accident as well as those that are not related to the accident but affect profoundly the level of men tal, social and physical well being. Results of the research are of great importance in organization and provision of social, medical and antiradiation protection of population under emergency situations involving radiation exposure. Key words: Chornobyl accident, clean up workers, social and psychological state, risk factors. V. О. Buzunov, K. N. Loganovsky, L. I. Krasnikova, M. O. Bomko, Yu. M. Belyaev, Zh. S. Yaroshenko, T. Ye. Domashevska.

Algorithm of probabilistic assessment of fully-mechanized longwall downtime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domrachev, A. N.; Rib, S. V.; Govorukhin, Yu M.; Krivopalov, V. G.

2017-09-01

The problem of increasing the load on a long fully-mechanized longwall has several aspects, one of which is the improvement of efficiency in using available stoping equipment due to the increase in coefficient of the machine operating time of a shearer and other mining machines that form an integral part of the longwall set of equipment. The task of predicting the reliability indicators of stoping equipment is solved by the statistical evaluation of parameters of downtime exponential distribution and failure recovery. It is more difficult to solve the problems of downtime accounting in case of accidents in the face workings and, despite the statistical data on accidents in mine workings, no solution has been found to date. The authors have proposed a variant of probability assessment of workings caving using Poisson distribution and the duration of their restoration using normal distribution. The above results confirm the possibility of implementing the approach proposed by the authors.

Occupational accidents in the Netherlands: incidence, mental harm, and their relationship with psychosocial factors at work.

PubMed

van der Klauw, Marloes; Hengel, Karen Oude; Roozeboom, Maartje Bakhuys; Koppes, Lando L; Venema, Anita

2016-01-01

This study investigated the incidence of mental harm due to occupational accidents and the relation between psychosocial factors at work and the occurrence of occupational accidents in the Netherlands for the construction industry and health and welfare sector. Analyses revealed that occupational accidents in the construction industry more often involved physical harm, whereas accidents in the health and welfare sector relatively more often resulted in mental harm, in comparison to other sectors. Results showed that psychosocial factors were associated with occupational accidents in both sectors. For the construction industry, high time pressure and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors were associated with occupational accidents. For the health and welfare sector, low autonomy and exposure to violence and harassment by colleagues or supervisors or by people outside the organization were associated with occupational accidents. The present paper stresses the importance of also taking psychological consequences and psychosocial factors at work into account in assessing the occurrence of occupational accidents.

[Clinical resulting risks in the persons injured in the traffic accident depending on the role and position in the traffic].

PubMed

Hur'iev, S O; Chundak, S S; Satsyk, S P

2013-03-01

Clinical resulting risks of the abdominal organs trauma in the injured persons, as a consequence of a traffic accident, constitute an important component of multicomponent polysystem trauma for the sign of taking part in a traffic.

The Ekofisk Accident Its Environmental and Political Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallenberg, Bengt

1977-01-01

The information collected from the accident at the Ekofisk offshore oil field is used to examine the environmental consequences and the costs of marine oil pollution. As offshore drillings increase throughout the world, there is a need for more information on this pollution problem and for more cooperation among nations. (MA)

Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

PubMed

Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

2016-02-01

Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Societal and ethical aspects of the Fukushima accident.

PubMed

Oughton, Deborah

2016-10-01

The Fukushima Nuclear Power Station accident in Japan in 2011 was a poignant reminder that radioactive contamination of the environment has consequences that encompass far more than health risks from exposure to radiation. Both the accident and remediation measures have resulted in serious societal impacts and raise questions about the ethical aspects of risk management. This article presents a brief review of some of these issues and compares similarities and differences with the lessons learned from the 1986 Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident in Ukraine. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:651-653. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, P; Schultze-Lutter, F

2016-02-01

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

[Mortality in traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba 2011].

PubMed

Piña-Tornés, Arlines; González-Longoria, Lourdes; González-Pardo, Secundino; Acosta-González, Ariel; Vintimilla-Burgos, Patricio; Paspuel-Yar, Silvana

2014-01-01

With the objective of describing mortality from traffic accidents in Bayamo, Cuba, in 2011 a review was performed of injured and deceased patients due to traffic accidents, recorded in the Hospital Carlos M. de Céspedes. Of the 1,365 injured patients treated in the emergency room, the predominant groups were individuals aged 25 to 44 years comprising 372 patients (27.3%) and men comprising 1,071 (78.5%). 46 people died, most from the same age group and male. Multiple traumatisms (52.6%) and craniofacial trauma (34.2%) were the predominant injuries. Motor vehicle-pedestrian accidents stood out with a mortality of 26.3%. In conclusion, mortality from traffic accidents predominately occurs in young male adults, whose fatal consequences are due to multiple traumatisms from road accidents.

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

[Health-related quality of life of people with severe traumatic injury: a longitudinal study using the SF-36 health survey].

PubMed

Bauer, J; Beck, B; Wandl, U

2013-06-01

Even though 85 percent of those who have been severely injured in an accident in Germany survive, complex and serious long-term consequences are still a major problem not only for health and care insurance providers but also for the accident victims themselves because their quality of life is affected permanently. Therefore the aim of the current study is to identify factors that significantly improve the quality of life after a severe traumatic injury and to investigate whether the support by a reintegration service has a positive effect on the victims' quality of life. The sample consisted of severely injured accident victims who were supported by a reintegration service. The data collection comprised three data points. At every data point the SF-36 questionnaire was used to assess the participants' quality of life. The results indicate that an individual medical-vocational support by a reintegration service has the potential to significantly and stably improve the physical aspects of quality of life, even if the accident dates back several years. Furthermore it appears to be important to support the independence of the accident victims because assistance by a third person correlates with a lower degree of physical quality of life, regardless of severity or type of injury. Moreover it becomes clear that it is important to pay more attention to the treatment of psychological consequences of severe accidents.

Accident history, risk perception and traffic safe behaviour.

PubMed

Ngueutsa, Robert; Kouabenan, Dongo Rémi

2017-09-01

This study clarifies the associations between accident history, perception of the riskiness of road travel and traffic safety behaviours by taking into account the number and severity of accidents experienced. A sample of 525 road users in Cameroon answered a questionnaire comprising items on perception of risk, safe behaviour and personal accident history. Participants who reported involvement in more than three accidents or involvement in a severe accident perceived road travel as less risky and also reported behaving less safely compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. The results have practical implications for the prevention of traffic accidents. Practitioner Summary: The associations between accident history, perceived risk of road travel and safe behaviour were investigated using self-report questionnaire data. Participants involved in more than three accidents, or in severe accidents, perceived road travel as less risky and also reported more unsafe behaviour compared with those involved in fewer, or less severe accidents. Campaigns targeting people with a less serious, less extensive accident history should aim to increase awareness of hazards and the potential severity of their consequences, as well as emphasising how easy it is to take the recommended preventive actions. Campaigns targeting those involved in more frequent accidents, and survivors of serious accidents, should address feelings of invulnerability and helplessness.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeVine Jr, J.C.

The Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident in March 1979 had a profound effect on the course of commercial nuclear generation in the United States and around the world. And while the central elements of the accident were matters of nuclear engineering, design and operations, its consequences were compounded, and in some respects superseded, by extraordinarily ineffective communications by all parties at all levels. Communications failures during the accident and its aftermath caused misunderstanding, distrust, and incorrect emergency response - and seeded or reinforced public opposition to nuclear power that persists to this day. There are communications lessons frommore » TMI that have not yet been fully learned, and some that once were learned but are now gradually being forgotten. The more glaring TMI communications problems were in the arena of external interactions and communications among the plant owner, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the media, and the public. Confusing, fragmented, and contradictory public statements early in the accident, regardless of cause, undermined all possibility for reasonable discourse thereafter. And because the TMI accident was playing out on a world stage, the breakdown in public trust had long term and widespread implications. At the plant site, both TMI-2 cleanup and restart of the undamaged TMI-1 unit met with years of public and political criticism, and attendant regulatory pressure. Across the nation, public trust in nuclear power and those who operate it plummeted, unquestionably contributing to the 25+ year hiatus in new plant orders. There were other, less visible but equally important, consequences of ineffective communications at TMI. The unplanned 'precautionary' evacuation urged by the governor two days after the accident - a life changing, traumatic event for thousands of residents - was prompted primarily by misunderstandings and miscommunications regarding the condition of the plant. And today, nearly 30 years after the event, many in our nuclear industry have insufficient knowledge or regard for the underlying nuclear safety vulnerabilities revealed by the accident, in part because these have not been well explained. From this single, compelling experience, many lessons can be drawn. Some of these were recognized early and taken to heart by those who own and operate nuclear plants - but over time, respect for their importance has given way somewhat to the seemingly more urgent practicalities of plant cost, schedule and production goals. In other cases, the lessons have remained largely obscure. This paper will describe in greater detail the communications aspects of the TMI accident, lessons that can be drawn from them, and their implications on current and future nuclear facility operation. The paper reflects the author's personal, direct experience as part of the accident response team and subsequent cleanup operations at TMI. In summary: The Three Mile Accident was the most severe nuclear accident in U.S. history. It also is perhaps the most studied industrial accident of any kind in U.S. history. Exhaustive examinations of the public health consequences of the accident show convincingly that the effects of radioactivity releases, if any, were imperceptibly low. It is generally agreed, however, that there have been perceptible health consequences from the TMI-2 accident - those linked to stress. Stress to members of the public, particularly those living near the plant, was unquestionably high. And for some the combination of rumor, confusion, contradictory reports and uncertainty, all leading to an evacuation recommendation from the governor, took a toll. It could be argued that the ineffective internal and external communications during the course of the event were as influential to the outcome as the equipment and operational breakdowns that are now so well understood. And for that reason alone, this accident points out that communications capabilities - staffing, systems, facilities, training - can be as important to protection of the public, the plant and the environment as are the plant material and technical issues that receive constant attention. (authors)« less

NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Fuller, Raymond P.

2011-01-01

Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

Pattern extraction for high-risk accidents in the construction industry: a data-mining approach.

PubMed

Amiri, Mehran; Ardeshir, Abdollah; Fazel Zarandi, Mohammad Hossein; Soltanaghaei, Elahe

2016-09-01

Accidents involving falls and falling objects (group I) are highly frequent accidents in the construction industry. While being hit by a vehicle, electric shock, collapse in the excavation and fire or explosion accidents (group II) are much less frequent, they make up a considerable proportion of severe accidents. In this study, multiple-correspondence analysis, decision tree, ensembles of decision tree and association rules methods are employed to analyse a database of construction accidents throughout Iran between 2007 and 2011. The findings indicate that in group I, there is a significant correspondence among these variables: time of accident, place of accident, body part affected, final consequence of accident and lost workdays. Moreover, the frequency of accidents in the night shift is less than others, and the frequency of injury to the head, back, spine and limbs are more. In group II, the variables time of accident and body part affected are mostly related and the frequency of accidents among married and older workers is more than single and young workers. There was a higher frequency in the evening, night shifts and weekends. The results of this study are totally in line with the previous research.

Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and consequences.

Preliminary results of consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident using Thai meteorological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, K.; Lawawirojwong, S.; Promping, J.

2017-06-01

Consequence assessment of a hypothetical severe accident is one of the important elements of the risk assessment of a nuclear power plant. It is widely known that the meteorological conditions can significantly influence the outcomes of such assessment, since it determines the results of the calculation of the radionuclide environmental transport. This study aims to assess the impacts of the meteorological conditions to the results of the consequence assessment. The consequence assessment code, OSCAAR, of Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) is used for the assessment. The results of the consequence assessment using Thai meteorological data are compared with those using Japanese meteorological data. The Thai case has following characteristics. Low wind speed made the radionuclides concentrate at the center comparing to the Japanese case. The squalls induced the peaks in the ground concentration distribution. The evacuated land is larger than the Japanese case though the relocated land is smaller, which is attributed to the concentration of the radionuclides near the release point.

Individual dose due to radioactivity accidental release from fusion reactor.

PubMed

Nie, Baojie; Ni, Muyi; Wei, Shiping

2017-04-05

As an important index shaping the design of fusion safety system, evaluation of public radiation consequences have risen as a hot topic on the way to develop fusion energy. In this work, the comprehensive public early dose was evaluated due to unit gram tritium (HT/HTO), activated dust, activated corrosion products (ACPs) and activated gases accidental release from ITER like fusion reactor. Meanwhile, considering that we cannot completely eliminate the occurrence likelihood of multi-failure of vacuum vessel and tokamak building, we conservatively evaluated the public radiation consequences and environment restoration after the worst hypothetical accident preliminarily. The comparison results show early dose of different unit radioactivity release under different conditions. After further performing the radiation consequences, we find it possible that the hypothetical accident for ITER like fusion reactor would result in a level 6 accident according to INES, not appear level 7 like Chernobyl or Fukushima accidents. And from the point of environment restoration, we need at least 69 years for case 1 (1kg HTO and 1000kg dust release) and 34-52years for case 2 (1kg HTO and 10kg-100kg dust release) to wait the contaminated zone drop below the general public safety limit (1mSv per year) before it is suitable for human habitation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On a true value of risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozine, Igor

2018-04-01

The paper suggests looking on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It is argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the topic of the current paper. The paper examines operational consequences of adhering to each of the views and contrasts them. It is demonstrated that operational differences on how and what probabilistic measures can be assessed and how they can be interpreted appear tangible. In particular, this concerns prediction intervals, the use of Byes rule, models of complete ignorance, hierarchical models of uncertainty, assignment of probabilities over possibility space and interpretation of derived probabilistic measures. Behavioural implications of favouring the either view are also briefly described.

Meaning of Missing Values in Eyewitness Recall and Accident Records

PubMed Central

Uttl, Bob; Kisinger, Kelly

2010-01-01

Background Eyewitness recalls and accident records frequently do not mention the conditions and behaviors of interest to researchers and lead to missing values and to uncertainty about the prevalence of these conditions and behaviors surrounding accidents. Missing values may occur because eyewitnesses report the presence but not the absence of obvious clues/accident features. We examined this possibility. Methodology/Principal Findings Participants watched car accident videos and were asked to recall as much information as they could remember about each accident. The results showed that eyewitnesses were far more likely to report the presence of present obvious clues than the absence of absent obvious clues even though they were aware of their absence. Conclusions One of the principal mechanisms causing missing values may be eyewitnesses' tendency to not report the absence of obvious features. We discuss the implications of our findings for both retrospective and prospective analyses of accident records, and illustrate the consequences of adopting inappropriate assumptions about the meaning of missing values using the Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card. PMID:20824054

Meaning of missing values in eyewitness recall and accident records.

PubMed

Uttl, Bob; Kisinger, Kelly

2010-09-02

Eyewitness recalls and accident records frequently do not mention the conditions and behaviors of interest to researchers and lead to missing values and to uncertainty about the prevalence of these conditions and behaviors surrounding accidents. Missing values may occur because eyewitnesses report the presence but not the absence of obvious clues/accident features. We examined this possibility. Participants watched car accident videos and were asked to recall as much information as they could remember about each accident. The results showed that eyewitnesses were far more likely to report the presence of present obvious clues than the absence of absent obvious clues even though they were aware of their absence. One of the principal mechanisms causing missing values may be eyewitnesses' tendency to not report the absence of obvious features. We discuss the implications of our findings for both retrospective and prospective analyses of accident records, and illustrate the consequences of adopting inappropriate assumptions about the meaning of missing values using the Avaluator Avalanche Accident Prevention Card.

Gilbert W. Beebe Symposium on 30 Years after the Chernobyl Accident: Current and Future Studies on Radiation Health Effects.

PubMed

Samet, Jonathan M; de González, Amy Berrington; Dauer, Lawrence T; Hatch, Maureen; Kosti, Ourania; Mettler, Fred A; Satyamitra, Merriline M

2018-01-01

This commentary summarizes the presentations and discussions from the 2016 Gilbert W. Beebe symposium "30 years after the Chernobyl accident: Current and future studies on radiation health effects." The symposium was hosted by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (the National Academies). The symposium focused on the health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, looking retrospectively at what has been learned and prospectively at potential future discoveries using emerging 21st Century research methodologies.

Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shevitz, Daniel Wolf; Key, Brian P.; Garcia, Daniel B.

2017-09-05

The Fragment Impact Toolkit (FIT) is a software package used for probabilistic consequence evaluation of fragmenting sources. The typical use case for FIT is to simulate an exploding shell and evaluate the consequence on nearby objects. FIT is written in the programming language Python and is designed as a collection of interacting software modules. Each module has a function that interacts with the other modules to produce desired results.

[Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Onishchenko, G G

2013-01-01

Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

2017-03-01

Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

2011-11-01

As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operatingmore » plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.« less

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

[Thrombosis and post-thrombotic syndrome as a consequence of an accident].

PubMed

Wahl, U; Hirsch, T

2015-10-01

Phlebothromboses represent alarming complications in accident victims since they can cause fatal pulmonary embolisms. More than half of those affected also develop post-thrombotic syndrome in the course of the illness. In addition to making clinical assessments, the traumatologist should also have fundamental knowledge about diagnostic methods and be familiar with interpreting internal findings. Colour-coded duplex sonography plays a central role in diagnosing thrombosis and in assessing functional limitations. Further information can be gathered from various phlebological procedures. The expert evaluation of the immediate, as well as the long-term consequences of an accident frequently require leg swelling to be classified. It is not uncommon for post-thrombotic syndrome to be diagnosed for the first time during this process. An additional vascular appraisal is often required. An appreciation of social-medical and insurance-related aspects means a high degree of responsibility is placed on the expert.

Experimental evidence against the paradigm of mortality risk aversion.

PubMed

Rheinberger, Christoph M

2010-04-01

This article deals with the question of how societal impacts of fatal accidents can be integrated into the management of natural or man-made hazards. Today, many governmental agencies give additional weight to the number of potential fatalities in their risk assessments to reflect society's aversion to large accidents. Although mortality risk aversion has been proposed in numerous risk management guidelines, there has been no evidence that lay people want public decisionmakers to overweight infrequent accidents of large societal consequences against more frequent ones of smaller societal consequences. Furthermore, it is not known whether public decisionmakers actually do such overweighting when they decide upon the mitigation of natural or technical hazards. In this article, we report on two experimental tasks that required participants to evaluate negative prospects involving 1-100 potential fatalities. Our results show that neither lay people nor hazard experts exhibit risk-averse behavior in decisions on mortality risks.

Thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents resulting from the Chernobyl accident: possible causes of the incidence increase overestimation.

PubMed

Jargin, S V

2009-04-01

The Chernobyl accident in the nuclear power plant on 26th April 1986 was followed by numerous publications overestimating the medical consequences of the disaster. In the publications, interpretations of spontaneous diseases as radiation-induced, indication of radioactivity or dose levels without confrontation with the natural radiation background, or conclusions about incidence increase without comparison with the increase tendencies in larger regions or the whole country, can be found. Improved diagnostics after the Chernobyl accident is not always taken into account. The high figures could have been caused in some cases by non-random material selection or inadequate morphological assessment of biopsy specimens. The application of the linear-no-threshold theory to the inhabitants of contaminated areas contributed to an overestimation of medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident as well. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma in children and adolescents started in 1990, four years after the accident. High tumor expectancy after the accident, in the circumstances of limited technical possibilities and outdated equipment of histological laboratories, contributed to a higher number of registered cases. The quality of specimens necessary for the assessment of nuclear criteria of papillary carcinoma was not always achieved at that time. The incidence increase of thyroid carcinoma can, at least in part, be explained by improved detection of thyroid nodules with occasional false-positive conclusions about malignancy. Besides, latent carcinomas and well-differentiated thyroid tumors of uncertain malignant potential, diagnosed as malignancies, could have additionally contributed to the high figures.

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

40 CFR 1400.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION OF OFF-SITE CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS INFORMATION... chemical accidents and submit the results of their analyses to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency as... the portions of risk management plans containing the results of those analyses and certain related...

Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

Analysis of construction accidents in Spain, 2003-2008.

PubMed

López Arquillos, Antonio; Rubio Romero, Juan Carlos; Gibb, Alistair

2012-12-01

The research objective for this paper is to obtain a new extended and updated insight to the likely causes of construction accidents in Spain, in order to identify suitable mitigating actions. The paper analyzes all construction sector accidents in Spain between 2003 and 2008. Ten variables were chosen and the influence of each variable is evaluated with respect to the severity of the accident. The descriptive analysis is based on a total of 1,163,178 accidents. Results showed that the severity of accidents was related to variables including age, CNAE (National Classification of Economic Activities) code, size of company, length of service, location of accident, day of the week, days of absence, deviation, injury, and climatic zones. According to data analyzed, a large company is not always necessarily safer than a small company in the aspect of fatal accidents, experienced workers do not have the best accident fatality rates, and accidents occurring away from the usual workplace had more severe consequences. Results obtained in this paper can be used by companies in their occupational safety strategies, and in their safety training programs. Copyright © 2012 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

2017-12-14

Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown.

LNG risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martino, P.

1980-12-01

A general methodology is presented for conducting an analysis of the various aspects of the hazards associated with the storage and transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) which should be considered during the planning stages of a typical LNG ship terminal. The procedure includes the performance of a hazards and system analysis of the proposed site, a probability analysis of accident scenarios and safety impacts, an analysis of the consequences of credible accidents such as tanker accidents, spills and fires, the assessment of risks and the design and evaluation of risk mitigation measures.

[Nuclear-power-plant accidents: thyroid cancer incidence and radiation-related health effects from the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Schlumberger, Martin; Le Guen, Bernard

2012-01-01

Following the Chernobyl accident, enormous amounts of radioisotopes were released in the atmosphere and have contaminated surrounding populations in the absence of rapid protective countermeasures. The highest radiation doses were delivered to the thyroid gland, and the only direct consequence of radiation exposure observed among contaminated population is the increased incidence of thyroid cancers among subjects who were children in 1986 and who lived at that time in Belarus, Ukraine or Russia. © 2012 médecine/sciences – Inserm / SRMS.

Vulnerability assessment of chemical industry facilities in South Korea based on the chemical accident history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, S.; Lee, W. K.; Jong-Ryeul, S.; Kim, M. I.

2016-12-01

The use of chemical compounds are keep increasing because of their use in manufacturing industry. Chemical accident is growing as the consequence of the chemical use increment. Devastating damages from chemical accidents are far enough to aware people's cautious about the risk of the chemical accident. In South Korea, Gumi Hydrofluoric acid leaking accident triggered the importance of risk management and emphasized the preventing the accident over the damage reducing process after the accident occurs. Gumi accident encouraged the government data base construction relate to the chemical accident. As the result of this effort Chemical Safety-Clearing-house (CSC) have started to record the chemical accident information and damages according to the Harmful Chemical Substance Control Act (HCSC). CSC provide details information about the chemical accidents from 2002 to present. The detail informations are including title of company, address, business type, accident dates, accident types, accident chemical compounds, human damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, human damage outside of the chemical industry facilities, financial damages inside of the chemical industry facilities, and financial damages outside of the chemical industry facilities, environmental damages and response to the chemical accident. Collected the chemical accident history of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and provide the spatial information to the each accident records based on their address. With the spatial information, compute the data on ArcGIS for the spatial-temporal analysis. The spatial-temporal information of chemical accident is organized by the chemical accident types, damages, and damages on environment and conduct the spatial proximity with local community and environmental receptors. Find the chemical accident vulnerable area of South Korea from 2002 to 2015 and add the vulnerable area of total period to examine the historically vulnerable area from the chemical accident in South Korea.

REAC/TS Radiation Accident Registry: An Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doran M. Christensen, DO, REAC /TS Associate Director and Staff Physician Becky Murdock, REAC/TS Registry and Health Physics Technician

2012-12-12

Over the past four years, REAC/TS has presented a number of case reports from its Radiation Accident Registry. Victims of radiological or nuclear incidents must meet certain dose criteria for an incident to be categorized as an “accident” and be included in the registry. Although the greatest numbers of “accidents” in the United States that have been entered into the registry involve radiation devices, the greater percentage of serious accidents have involved sealed sources of one kind or another. But if one looks at the kinds of accident scenarios that have resulted in extreme consequence, i.e., death, the greater sharemore » of deaths has occurred in medical settings.« less

Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

Driver fatigue and road safety on Poland's national roads.

PubMed

Jamroz, Kazimierz; Smolarek, Leszek

2013-01-01

This paper presents an overview of factors causing driver fatigue as described in the literature. Next, a traffic crash database for 2003-2007 is used to identify the causes, circumstances and consequences of accidents caused by driver fatigue on Poland's national roads. The results of the study were used to build a model showing the relationship between the concentration of road accidents and casualties, and the time of day. Finally, the level of relative accident risk at night-time versus daytime is defined. A map shows the risk of death and severe injury on the network of Poland's national roads. The paper suggests to road authorities steps to reduce fatigue-related road accidents in Poland.

Comparison of the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: a review of the environmental impacts.

PubMed

Steinhauser, Georg; Brandl, Alexander; Johnson, Thomas E

2014-02-01

The environmental impacts of the nuclear accidents of Chernobyl and Fukushima are compared. In almost every respect, the consequences of the Chernobyl accident clearly exceeded those of the Fukushima accident. In both accidents, most of the radioactivity released was due to volatile radionuclides (noble gases, iodine, cesium, tellurium). However, the amount of refractory elements (including actinides) emitted in the course of the Chernobyl accident was approximately four orders of magnitude higher than during the Fukushima accident. For Chernobyl, a total release of 5,300 PBq (excluding noble gases) has been established as the most cited source term. For Fukushima, we estimated a total source term of 520 (340-800) PBq. In the course of the Fukushima accident, the majority of the radionuclides (more than 80%) was transported offshore and deposited in the Pacific Ocean. Monitoring campaigns after both accidents reveal that the environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident was much greater than of the Fukushima accident. Both the highly contaminated areas and the evacuated areas are smaller around Fukushima and the projected health effects in Japan are significantly lower than after the Chernobyl accident. This is mainly due to the fact that food safety campaigns and evacuations worked quickly and efficiently after the Fukushima accident. In contrast to Chernobyl, no fatalities due to acute radiation effects occurred in Fukushima. © 2013.

Effects of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzat, S.; Farengo, R.

2005-12-01

The consequences of varying the step particle distribution on a probabilistic transport model, which captures the basic features of transport in plasmas and was recently introduced in Ref. 1 [B. Ph. van Milligen et al., Phys. Plasmas 11, 2272 (2004)], are studied. Different superdiffusive transport mechanisms generated by a family of distributions with algebraic decays (Tsallis distributions) are considered. It is observed that the possibility of changing the superdiffusive transport mechanism improves the flexibility of the model for describing different situations. The use of the model to describe the low (L) and high (H) confinement modes is also analyzed.

Medical management of radiation accidents: capabilities and deployment principles of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology.

PubMed

Dörr, Harald; Meineke, Viktor

2012-10-01

Radiation accidents are fortunately infrequent occurrences, but since their consequences can be very serious as in the Chernobyl and the Fukushima nuclear accidents, medical management of radiation accidents is of great importance. Besides several other tasks, medical management of radiation accidents is one of the key tasks of the Bundeswehr Institute of Radiobiology. Within a Task Force Unit for medical chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) Defense, the institute provides designated personnel who will perform clinical investigations on the scene and will liaise with the institute, where different methods for biological dosimetry and dose reconstruction will be performed. The most important aspects of efficient medical management of radiation accidents are diagnosis of radiation-induced health damage, determination of the cause, dealing with contamination/incorporation, pathophysiological and therapeutic principles, preparatory planning, national and international cooperation and training. Military and non-military institutions have to work closely together when it comes to radiation accidents and since national resources are limited and could be exhausted, international networks can help to ensure medical treatment for radiation accident victims.

Risk management at the stage of design of high-rise construction facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politi, Violetta

2018-03-01

This paper describes the assessment of the probabilistic risk of an accident formed in the process of designing a technically complex facility. It considers values of conditional probabilities of the compliance of load-bearing structures with safety requirements, provides an approximate list of significant errors of the designer and analyzes the relationship between the degree of compliance and the level of danger of errors. It describes and proposes for implementation the regulated procedures related to the assessment of the safety level of constructive solutions and the reliability of the construction process participants.

Philosophy of ATHEANA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bley, D.C.; Cooper, S.E.; Forester, J.A.

ATHEANA, a second-generation Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method integrates advances in psychology with engineering, human factors, and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) disciplines to provide an HRA quantification process and PRA modeling interface that can accommodate and represent human performance in real nuclear power plant events. The method uses the characteristics of serious accidents identified through retrospective analysis of serious operational events to set priorities in a search process for significant human failure events, unsafe acts, and error-forcing context (unfavorable plant conditions combined with negative performance-shaping factors). ATHEANA has been tested in a demonstration project at an operating pressurized water reactor.

Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

PubMed

Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

2016-02-01

The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

User perception and interpretation of tornado probabilistic hazard information: Comparison of four graphical designs.

PubMed

Miran, Seyed M; Ling, Chen; James, Joseph J; Gerard, Alan; Rothfusz, Lans

2017-11-01

Effective design for presenting severe weather information is important to reduce devastating consequences of severe weather. The Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) system for severe weather is being developed by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) to communicate probabilistic hazardous weather information. This study investigates the effects of four PHI graphical designs for tornado threat, namely, "four-color"," red-scale", "grayscale" and "contour", on users' perception, interpretation, and reaction to threat information. PHI is presented on either a map background or a radar background. Analysis showed that the accuracy was significantly higher and response time faster when PHI was displayed on map background as compared to radar background due to better contrast. When displayed on a radar background, "grayscale" design resulted in a higher accuracy of responses. Possibly due to familiarity, participants reported four-color design as their favorite design, which also resulted in the fastest recognition of probability levels on both backgrounds. Our study shows the importance of using intuitive color-coding and sufficient contrast in conveying probabilistic threat information via graphical design. We also found that users follows a rational perceiving-judging-feeling-and acting approach in processing probabilistic hazard information for tornado. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.

We report that many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has beenmore » examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Lastly, although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.« less

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation.

PubMed

Zhang, Laobing; Landucci, Gabriele; Reniers, Genserik; Khakzad, Nima; Zhou, Jianfeng

2017-12-19

Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so-called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent-based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent-based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom-up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher-level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large-scale complicated cases. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

RAMONA-3B application to Browns Ferry ATWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slovik, G.C.; Neymotin, L.Y.; Saha, P.

1985-01-01

The Anticipated Transient Without Scram (ATWS) is known to be a dominant accident sequence for possible core melt in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR). A recent Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) analysis for the Browns Ferry nuclear power plant indicates that ATWS is the second most dominant transient for core melt in BWR/4 with Mark I containment. The most dominant sequence being the failure of long term decay heat removal function of the Residual Heat Removal (RHR) system. Of all the various ATWS scenarios, the Main Steam Isolation Valve (MSIV) closure ATWS sequence was chosen for present analysis because of itsmore » relatively high frequency of occurrence and its challenge to the residual heat removal system and containment integrity. The objective of this paper is to discuss four MSIV closure ATWS calculations using the RAMONA-3B code. The paper is a summary of a report being prepared for the USNRC Severe Accident Sequence Analysis (SASA) program which should be referred to for details. 10 refs., 20 figs., 3 tabs.« less

A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision.

PubMed

Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub

2014-02-15

In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship-ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation

PubMed Central

Stepanova, Ekaterina V.; Kondrashin, Anatoly V.; Sergiev, Vladimir P.; Morozova, Lola F.; Turbabina, Natalia A.; Maksimova, Maria S.; Brazhnikov, Alexey I.; Shevchenko, Sergei B.

2017-01-01

Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named “Increase road traffic safety”. Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper. PMID:28957427

Significance of chronic toxoplasmosis in epidemiology of road traffic accidents in Russian Federation.

PubMed

Stepanova, Ekaterina V; Kondrashin, Anatoly V; Sergiev, Vladimir P; Morozova, Lola F; Turbabina, Natalia A; Maksimova, Maria S; Brazhnikov, Alexey I; Shevchenko, Sergei B; Morozov, Evgeny N

2017-01-01

Studies carried out in Moscow residents have revealed that the prevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis is very close to those in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Our findings also demonstrated a statistically significant relationship between the rate of traffic accidents and the seroprevalence of chronic toxoplasmosis in drivers who were held responsible for accidents. The latter was 2.37 times higher in drivers who were involved in road accidents compared with control groups. These results suggest that the consequences of chronic toxoplasmosis (particularly a slower reaction time and decreased concentration) might contribute to the peculiarities of the epidemiology of road traffic accidents in the Russian Federation and might interfere with the successful implementation of the Federal Programme named "Increase road traffic safety". Suggestions for how to address overcome this problem are discussed in this paper.

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Fast, noise-free memory for photon synchronization at room temperature.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Ran; Poem, Eilon; Michel, Ohad; Lahad, Ohr; Firstenberg, Ofer

2018-01-01

Future quantum photonic networks require coherent optical memories for synchronizing quantum sources and gates of probabilistic nature. We demonstrate a fast ladder memory (FLAME) mapping the optical field onto the superposition between electronic orbitals of rubidium vapor. Using a ladder-level system of orbital transitions with nearly degenerate frequencies simultaneously enables high bandwidth, low noise, and long memory lifetime. We store and retrieve 1.7-ns-long pulses, containing 0.5 photons on average, and observe short-time external efficiency of 25%, memory lifetime (1/ e ) of 86 ns, and below 10 -4 added noise photons. Consequently, coupling this memory to a probabilistic source would enhance the on-demand photon generation probability by a factor of 12, the highest number yet reported for a noise-free, room temperature memory. This paves the way toward the controlled production of large quantum states of light from probabilistic photon sources.

Probabilistic vs. non-probabilistic approaches to the neurobiology of perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

2012-01-01

Optimal binary perceptual decision making requires accumulation of evidence in the form of a probability distribution that specifies the probability of the choices being correct given the evidence so far. Reward rates can then be maximized by stopping the accumulation when the confidence about either option reaches a threshold. Behavioral and neuronal evidence suggests that humans and animals follow such a probabilitistic decision strategy, although its neural implementation has yet to be fully characterized. Here we show that that diffusion decision models and attractor network models provide an approximation to the optimal strategy only under certain circumstances. In particular, neither model type is sufficiently flexible to encode the reliability of both the momentary and the accumulated evidence, which is a pre-requisite to accumulate evidence of time-varying reliability. Probabilistic population codes, in contrast, can encode these quantities and, as a consequence, have the potential to implement the optimal strategy accurately. PMID:22884815

Underestimates of unintentional firearm fatalities: comparing Supplementary Homicide Report data with the National Vital Statistics System

PubMed Central

Barber, C; Hemenway, D; Hochstadt, J; Azrael, D

2002-01-01

Objective: A growing body of evidence suggests that the nation's vital statistics system undercounts unintentional firearm deaths that are not self inflicted. This issue was examined by comparing how unintentional firearm injuries identified in police Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data were coded in the National Vital Statistics System. Methods: National Vital Statistics System data are based on death certificates and divide firearm fatalities into six subcategories: homicide, suicide, accident, legal intervention, war operations, and undetermined. SHRs are completed by local police departments as part of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports program. The SHR divides homicides into two categories: "murder and non-negligent manslaughter" (type A) and "negligent manslaughter" (type B). Type B shooting deaths are those that are inflicted by another person and that a police investigation determined were inflicted unintentionally, as in a child killing a playmate after mistaking a gun for a toy. In 1997, the SHR classified 168 shooting victims this way. Using probabilistic matching, 140 of these victims were linked to their death certificate records. Results: Among the 140 linked cases, 75% were recorded on the death certificate as homicides and only 23% as accidents. Conclusion: Official data from the National Vital Statistics System almost certainly undercount firearm accidents when the victim is shot by another person. PMID:12226128

Possible consequences of severe accidents at the Lubiatowo site, Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, Petra; Philipp, Anne; Hofman, Radek; Gufler, Klaus; Sholly, Steven

2014-05-01

The construction of a nuclear power plant is under consideration in Poland. One of the sites under discussion is near Lubiatowo, located on the cost of the Baltic Sea northwest of Gdansk. An assessment of possible environmental consequences is carried out for 88 real meteorological cases with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. Based on literature research, three reactor designs (ABWR, EPR, AP 1000) were identified as being under discussion in Poland. For each of the designs, a set of accident scenarios was evaluated and two source terms per reactor design were selected for analysis. One of the selected source terms was a relatively large release while the second one was a severe accident with an intact containment. Considered endpoints of the calculations are ground contamination with Cs-137 and time-integrated concentrations of I-131 in air as well as committed doses. They are evaluated on a grid of ca. 3 km mesh size covering eastern Central Europe.

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larocque, G. R.

1980-01-01

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

Denver UASI All-Hazards Regional Recovery Framework. Version 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-31

Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their Remediation: Twenty Years of Experience, 2006, at http://www-pub.iaea.org/mtcd/publications/pdf...pub1239_web.pdf 22 This report presents the findings and recommendations of the Chernobyl Forum concerning the environmental effects of the... Chernobyl accident. Recovery Criteria and Guidelines Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment. Hazardous Materials and Waste Management

30 years After the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Time for Reflection and Re-evaluation of Current Disaster Preparedness Plans.

PubMed

Zablotska, Lydia B

2016-06-01

It has been 30 years since the worst accident in the history of the nuclear era occurred at the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine close to densely populated urban areas. To date, epidemiological studies reported increased long-term risks of leukemia, cardiovascular diseases, and cataracts among cleanup workers and of thyroid cancer and non-malignant diseases in those exposed as children and adolescents. Mental health effects were the most significant public health consequence of the accident in the three most contaminated countries of Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian Federation. Timely and clear communication with affected populations emerged as one of the main lessons in the aftermath of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

A Review of Criticality Accidents 2000 Revision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomas P. McLaughlin; Shean P. Monahan; Norman L. Pruvost

Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Sixty accidental power excursions are reviewed. Sufficient detail is provided to enable the reader to understand the physical situation, the chemistry and material flow, and when available the administrative setting leading up to the time of the accident. Information on the power history, energy release, consequences, and causes are also included when available. For those accidents that occurred in process plants, two new sections have been included in this revision. The first is an analysis and summary of the physical and neutronic features of the chain reacting systems. Themore » second is a compilation of observations and lessons learned. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this report.« less

Laser-heating and Radiance Spectrometry for the Study of Nuclear Materials in Conditions Simulating a Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Manara, Dario; Soldi, Luca; Mastromarino, Sara; Boboridis, Kostantinos; Robba, Davide; Vlahovic, Luka; Konings, Rudy

2017-01-01

Major and severe accidents have occurred three times in nuclear power plants (NPPs), at Three Mile Island (USA, 1979), Chernobyl (former USSR, 1986) and Fukushima (Japan, 2011). Research on the causes, dynamics, and consequences of these mishaps has been performed in a few laboratories worldwide in the last three decades. Common goals of such research activities are: the prevention of these kinds of accidents, both in existing and potential new nuclear power plants; the minimization of their eventual consequences; and ultimately, a full understanding of the real risks connected with NPPs. At the European Commission Joint Research Centre's Institute for Transuranium Elements, a laser-heating and fast radiance spectro-pyrometry facility is used for the laboratory simulation, on a small scale, of NPP core meltdown, the most common type of severe accident (SA) that can occur in a nuclear reactor as a consequence of a failure of the cooling system. This simulation tool permits fast and effective high-temperature measurements on real nuclear materials, such as plutonium and minor actinide-containing fission fuel samples. In this respect, and in its capability to produce large amount of data concerning materials under extreme conditions, the current experimental approach is certainly unique. For current and future concepts of NPP, example results are presented on the melting behavior of some different types of nuclear fuels: uranium-plutonium oxides, carbides, and nitrides. Results on the high-temperature interaction of oxide fuels with containment materials are also briefly shown. PMID:29286382

Advocating for Health and Safety through Social Media--Linked In!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carreon, Amie Klein; Peoples, JaNiene; Shipley, Meagan; Wilson, Kelly; Ramirez, Cameron

2016-01-01

Excessive drinking among college students, which is influenced by an array of factors ranging from campus norms to membership in student organizations, has been linked to consequences including motor vehicle accidents, cognitive deficits, arrests, overdoses, assaults, and death. Considering the severity of consequences related to drinking,…

Environmental Aftermath of the Radiation Accident at Tomsk-7

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porfiriev, Boris N.; Porfiriev, Boris N.

1996-01-01

An analysis is presented of the environmental effects of the most serious radiation accident recorded after Chernobyl, which occurred in the formerly secret town of Tomsk-7 in Siberia, Russia, on 6, April 1993. Fortunately, it appears not to have become a major industrial crisis or disaster. The causes of the accident are described. It is argued that a mixture of both objective and subjective prerequisites, including specific human, organizational, and technological factors, were responsible for the explosion or directly facilitated it. The Tomsk-7 accident’s ecological, medical, social, and psychological consequences are discussed.

Evacuation areas for transportation accidents involving propellant tank pressure bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Siewert, R. D.

1972-01-01

Evacuation areas are defined for those transportation accidents where volatile chemical propellant tanks are exposed to fire in the wreckage and eventually explode with consequent risks from fragments in surrounding populated areas. An evacuation area with a minimum radius of 600 m (2000 ft) is recommended to limit the statistical probability of fatality to one in 100 such accidents. The result was made possible by the derivation of a distribution function of distances reached by fragments from bursting chemical car tanks. Data concerning fragments was obtained from reports or tank car pressure bursts between 1958 and 1971.

Industrial accidents triggered by lightning.

PubMed

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-12-15

Natural disasters can cause major accidents in chemical facilities where they can lead to the release of hazardous materials which in turn can result in fires, explosions or toxic dispersion. Lightning strikes are the most frequent cause of major accidents triggered by natural events. In order to contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing lightning risk at industrial facilities, lightning-triggered accident case histories were retrieved from the major industrial accident databases and analysed to extract information on types of vulnerable equipment, failure dynamics and damage states, as well as on the final consequences of the event. The most vulnerable category of equipment is storage tanks. Lightning damage is incurred by immediate ignition, electrical and electronic systems failure or structural damage with subsequent release. Toxic releases and tank fires tend to be the most common scenarios associated with lightning strikes. Oil, diesel and gasoline are the substances most frequently released during lightning-triggered Natech accidents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Consequences of the radiation accident at the Mayak production association in 1957 (the 'Kyshtym Accident').

PubMed

Akleyev, A V; Krestinina, L Yu; Degteva, M O; Tolstykh, E I

2017-09-01

This paper presents an overview of the nuclear accident that occurred at the Mayak Production Association (PA) in the Russian Federation on 29 September 1957, often referred to as 'Kyshtym Accident', when 20 MCi (740 PBq) of radionuclides were released by a chemical explosion in a radioactive waste storage tank. 2 MCi (74 PBq) spread beyond the Mayak PA site to form the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). The paper describes the accident and gives brief characteristics of the efficacy of the implemented protective measures that made it possible to considerably reduce doses to the exposed population. The paper also provides retrospective dosimetry estimates for the members of the EURT Cohort (EURTC) which comprises approximately 21 400 people. During the first two years after the accident a decrease in the group average leukocyte (mainly due to neutrophils and lymphocytes) and thrombocyte count was observed in the population. At later dates an increased excess relative risk of solid cancer incidence and mortality was found in the EURTC.

Continuously improving safety of nuclear installations: An approach to be reinforced after the Fukushima accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Repussard, Jacques; Schwarz, Michel

2012-05-01

After the Three Mile Island accident in 1979 and the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the Fukushima accident shows that the probability of a core meltdown accident in an LWR (Light Water Reactor) has been largely underestimated. The consequences of such an accident are unacceptable: except in the case of TMI2 (Three Mile Island 2) large areas around the damaged plants are contaminated for decades and populations have to be relocated for long periods. This article presents the French approach which consists in improving continuously the safety of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) on the basis of lessons learned from operating experience and from the progress in R&D (Research and Development). It details the key role played by IRSN (Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire), the French TSO (Technical and scientific Safety Organization), and shows how the Fukushima accident contributes to this approach in improving NPP robustness. It concludes on the necessity to keep on networking TSOs, to share knowledge as well as R&D resources, with the ultimate goal of enhancing and harmonizing nuclear safety worldwide.

Analysis of construction accidents in Turkey and responsible parties.

PubMed

Gürcanli, G Emre; Müngen, Uğur

2013-01-01

Construction is one of the world's biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972-2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00-12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases.

Precursors of dangerous substances formed in the loss of control of chemical systems.

PubMed

Cozzani, V; Zanelli, S

1999-03-01

Article 2 of Directive 96/82/EC on the control of major accident hazards caused by dangerous substances requires to consider also the hazards due to the dangerous substances "which it is believed may be generated during loss of control of an industrial chemical process", although no generally accepted guidelines are available for the identification of these substances. In the present study, the accidents involving the unwanted formation of dangerous substances as a consequence of the loss of control of chemical systems were investigated. A specifically developed database was used, containing data on more than 400 of these accidents and on the substances involved. The hazardous substances formed in the accidents and the precursors of these substances were identified. The influence of accident characteristics on the substances formed was investigated. In the context of the application of Directive 96/82/EC, an accident severity index and a hazard rating of the precursors of dangerous substances formed in the accidents were proposed. A lumping approach was used in order to develop schemes for the preliminary identification of substances that may be formed in the loss of control of chemical system. The results of accident analysis were used to test the schemes developed.

Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

2013-04-01

A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in agreement with Chernobyl experiences. However, emergency planning presently is still often focussing on too small areas. In reality, almost all of Europe should be prepared for nuclear disaster. The project investigated also the effect of a simple phase-out scenario. A regional phase-out policy is effective for reducing or even eliminating high damage in the respective regions. It should also be mentioned that risk distribution depends strongly on accident frequency, but this parameter is highly uncertain. The work in flexRISK was funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund (KLI.EN).

The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on off-shore oil platforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capuano, Paolo; Basco, Anna; Di Ruocco, Angela; Esposito, Simona; Fusco, Giannetta; Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Mercogliano, Paola; Salzano, Ernesto; Solaro, Giuseppe; Teofilo, Gianvito; Scandone, Paolo; Gasparini, Paolo

2017-04-01

ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities - National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk), aims at providing technical support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil platforms. In order to achieve this challenging objective, ARGO brings together climate experts, risk management experts, seismologists, geologists, chemical engineers, earth and coastal observation experts. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore oil platforms in the Italian seas, including extreme events related to climate changes. Furthermore the environmental effect of offshore activities has been investigated, including: changes on seismicity and on the evolution of coastal areas close to offshore platforms. Then a probabilistic multi-risk framework has been developed for the analysis of NA-TECH events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction.

Probabilistic evaluation of fuselage-type composite structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1992-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally simulate the uncertain behavior of composite structures. The uncertain behavior includes buckling loads, natural frequencies, displacements, stress/strain etc., which are the consequences of the random variation (scatter) of the primitive (independent random) variables in the constituent, ply, laminate and structural levels. This methodology is implemented in the IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures) computer code. A fuselage-type composite structure is analyzed to demonstrate the code's capability. The probability distribution functions of the buckling loads, natural frequency, displacement, strain and stress are computed. The sensitivity of each primitive (independent random) variable to a given structural response is also identified from the analyses.

Investigations on optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident in a VVER-1000 pressurized water reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tusheva, P.; Schaefer, F.; Kliem, S.

2012-07-01

The reactor safety issues are of primary importance for preserving the health of the population and ensuring no release of radioactivity and fission products into the environment. A part of the nuclear research focuses on improvement of the safety of existing nuclear power plants. Studies, research and efforts are a continuing process at improving the safety and reliability of existing and newly developed nuclear power plants at prevention of a core melt accident. Station blackout (loss of AC power supply) is one of the dominant accidents taken into consideration at performing accident analysis. In case of multiple failures of safetymore » systems it leads to a severe accident. To prevent an accident to turn into a severe one or to mitigate the consequences, accident management measures must be performed. The present paper outlines possibilities for application and optimization of accident management measures following a station blackout accident. Assessed is the behaviour of the nuclear power plant during a station blackout accident without accident management measures and with application of primary/secondary side oriented accident management measures. Discussed are the possibilities for operators ' intervention and the influence of the performed accident management measures on the course of the accident. Special attention has been paid to the effectiveness of the passive feeding and physical phenomena having an influence on the system behaviour. The performed simulations show that the effectiveness of the secondary side feeding procedure can be limited due to an early evaporation or flashing effects in the feed water system. The analyzed cases show that the effectiveness of the accident management measures strongly depends on the initiation criteria applied for depressurization of the reactor coolant system. (authors)« less

Cross-comparison of three surrogate safety methods to diagnose cyclist safety problems at intersections in Norway.

PubMed

Laureshyn, Aliaksei; Goede, Maartje de; Saunier, Nicolas; Fyhri, Aslak

2017-08-01

Relying on accident records as the main data source for studying cyclists' safety has many drawbacks, such as high degree of under-reporting, the lack of accident details and particularly of information about the interaction processes that led to the accident. It is also an ethical problem as one has to wait for accidents to happen in order to make a statement about cyclists' (un-)safety. In this perspective, the use of surrogate safety measures based on actual observations in traffic is very promising. In this study we used video data from three intersections in Norway that were all independently analysed using three methods: the Swedish traffic conflict technique (Swedish TCT), the Dutch conflict technique (DOCTOR) and the probabilistic surrogate measures of safety (PSMS) technique developed in Canada. The first two methods are based on manual detection and counting of critical events in traffic (traffic conflicts), while the third considers probabilities of multiple trajectories for each interaction and delivers a density map of potential collision points per site. Due to extensive use of microscopic data, PSMS technique relies heavily on automated tracking of the road users in video. Across the three sites, the methods show similarities or are at least "compatible" with the accident records. The two conflict techniques agree quite well for the number, type and location of conflicts, but some differences with no obvious explanation are also found. PSMS reports many more safety-relevant interactions including less severe events. The location of the potential collision points is compatible with what the conflict techniques suggest, but the possibly significant share of false alarms due to inaccurate trajectories extracted from video complicates the comparison. The tested techniques still require enhancement, with respect to better adjustment to analysis of the situations involving cyclists (and vulnerable road users in general) and further validation. However, we believe this to be a future direction for the road safety analysis as the number of accidents is constantly decreasing and the quality of accident data does not seem to improve. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors correlated with traffic accidents as a basis for evaluating Advanced Driver Assistance Systems.

PubMed

Staubach, Maria

2009-09-01

This study aims to identify factors which influence and cause errors in traffic accidents and to use these as a basis for information to guide the application and design of driver assistance systems. A total of 474 accidents were examined in depth for this study by means of a psychological survey, data from accident reports, and technical reconstruction information. An error analysis was subsequently carried out, taking into account the driver, environment, and vehicle sub-systems. Results showed that all accidents were influenced by errors as a consequence of distraction and reduced activity. For crossroad accidents, there were further errors resulting from sight obstruction, masked stimuli, focus errors, and law infringements. Lane departure crashes were additionally caused by errors as a result of masked stimuli, law infringements, expectation errors as well as objective and action slips, while same direction accidents occurred additionally because of focus errors, expectation errors, and objective and action slips. Most accidents were influenced by multiple factors. There is a safety potential for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS), which support the driver in information assimilation and help to avoid distraction and reduced activity. The design of the ADAS is dependent on the specific influencing factors of the accident type.

Optimization of Systems with Uncertainty: Initial Developments for Performance, Robustness and Reliability Based Designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This paper presents a study on the optimization of systems with structured uncertainties, whose inputs and outputs can be exhaustively described in the probabilistic sense. By propagating the uncertainty from the input to the output in the space of the probability density functions and the moments, optimization problems that pursue performance, robustness and reliability based designs are studied. Be specifying the desired outputs in terms of desired probability density functions and then in terms of meaningful probabilistic indices, we settle a computationally viable framework for solving practical optimization problems. Applications to static optimization and stability control are used to illustrate the relevance of incorporating uncertainty in the early stages of the design. Several examples that admit a full probabilistic description of the output in terms of the design variables and the uncertain inputs are used to elucidate the main features of the generic problem and its solution. Extensions to problems that do not admit closed form solutions are also evaluated. Concrete evidence of the importance of using a consistent probabilistic formulation of the optimization problem and a meaningful probabilistic description of its solution is provided in the examples. In the stability control problem the analysis shows that standard deterministic approaches lead to designs with high probability of running into instability. The implementation of such designs can indeed have catastrophic consequences.

The Development of Improved Risk Assessment Methods for Use in Industrial Environmental Management Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manners, T.K.

2006-07-01

Industrial sites that store or use chemicals are controlled in the UK under the COMAH (Control Of Major Accident Hazards) Regulations 1999 [1] based on their holdings of 'Dangerous Substances'. The COMAH Regulations [1] came into force in 1999 and are the UK's response to the European Union's Seveso II Directive. The purpose of these Regulations [1] is to: - Identify Major Accident Hazards (MAH); - Ensure that control measures are in place to prevent a MAH; - Ensure that mitigatory measures are in place to limit effects if MAH do occur. The UK's Health and Safety Executive (HSE), andmore » the Environment Agency (EA) jointly enforce the Regulations [1]. The fundamental requirement is given in the statement below, which is taken directly from the Regulations [1]. 'Every operator shall take all measures necessary to prevent major accidents and limit their consequences to persons and the environment'. This paper describes the development of a six-step screening methodology designed to identify Major Accidents To The Environment (MATTE) and improved consequence definitions that can be used in risk matrices to define the severity of an environmental fault. The method has been designed to be compatible with existing Environmental Management Systems (EMS) used in the chemical and nuclear industry. (authors)« less

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe when the most harmful event of the accident occurs later within the accident chain.

Judgment under uncertainty; a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries.

PubMed

Malekpour, Shirin; Langeveld, Jeroen; Letema, Sammy; Clemens, François; van Lier, Jules B

2013-03-30

This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu, Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various site-specific data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accident epidemiology and the U.S. chemical industry: accident history and worst-case data from RMP*Info.

PubMed

Kleindorfer, Paul R; Belke, James C; Elliott, Michael R; Lee, Kiwan; Lowe, Robert A; Feldman, Harold I

2003-10-01

This article reports on the data collected on one of the most ambitious government-sponsored environmental data acquisition projects of all time, the Risk Management Plan (RMP) data collected under section 112(r) of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. This RMP Rule 112(r) was triggered by the Bhopal accident in 1984 and led to the requirement that each qualifying facility develop and file with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency a Risk Management Plan (RMP) as well as accident history data for the five-year period preceding the filing of the RMP. These data were collected in 1999-2001 on more than 15,000 facilities in the United States that store or use listed toxic or flammable chemicals believed to be a hazard to the environment or to human health of facility employees or off-site residents of host communities. The resulting database, RMP*Info, has become a key resource for regulators and researchers concerned with the frequency and severity of accidents, and the underlying facility-specific factors that are statistically associated with accident and injury rates. This article analyzes which facilities actually filed under the Rule and presents results on accident frequencies and severities available from the RMP*Info database. This article also presents summaries of related results from RMP*Info on Offsite Consequence Analysis (OCA), an analytical estimate of the potential consequences of hypothetical worst-case and alternative accidental releases on the public and environment around the facility. The OCA data have become a key input in the evaluation of site security assessment and mitigation policies for both government planners as well as facility managers and their insurers. Following the survey of the RMP*Info data, we discuss the rich set of policy decisions that may be informed by research based on these data.

Did liberalising bar hours decrease traffic accidents?

PubMed

Green, Colin P; Heywood, John S; Navarro, Maria

2014-05-01

Legal bar closing times in England and Wales have historically been early and uniform. Recent legislation liberalised closing times with the object of reducing social problems thought associated with drinking to "beat the clock." Indeed, using both difference in difference and synthetic control approaches we show that one consequence of this liberalisation was a decrease in traffic accidents. This decrease is heavily concentrated among younger drivers. Moreover, we provide evidence that the effect was most pronounced in the hours of the week directly affected by the liberalisation: late nights and early mornings on weekends. This evidence survives a series of robustness checks and suggests at least one socially positive consequence of extending bar hours. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bucknor, Matthew D.; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.

2016-01-01

Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended due to deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologiesmore » for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Centering on an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive reactor cavity cooling system following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. While this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability for the reactor cavity cooling system (and the reactor system in general) to the postulated transient event.« less

Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

DOE PAGES

Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; ...

2017-01-24

We report that many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has beenmore » examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Lastly, although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.« less

'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

2007-05-30

This technical basis document was developed to support RPP-23429, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (PDSA) and RPP-23479, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Facility. The main document describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative accidents involving the release of dried radioactive waste materials from the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (DBVS) and to the associated represented hazardous conditions. Appendices D through F provide the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative dried waste release accident and associated represented hazardous conditionsmore » for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Packaging Unit (WPU). The risk binning process uses an evaluation of the frequency and consequence of a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition to determine the need for safety structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls. A representative accident or a represented hazardous condition is assigned to a risk bin based on the potential radiological and toxicological consequences to the public and the collocated worker. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers because credible hazardous conditions with the potential for significant facility worker consequences are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls regardless of their estimated frequency. The controls for protection of the facility workers are described in RPP-23429 and RPP-23479. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses, as described below.« less

Mental health consequences of the Chernobyl disaster.

PubMed

Bromet, Evelyn J

2012-03-01

The psychosocial consequences of disasters have been studied for more than 100 years. The most common mental health consequences are depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, medically unexplained somatic symptoms, and stigma. The excess morbidity rate of psychiatric disorders in the first year after a disaster is in the order of 20%. Disasters involving radiation are particularly pernicious because the exposure is invisible and universally dreaded, and can pose a long-term threat to health. After the Chernobyl disaster, studies of clean-up workers (liquidators) and adults from contaminated areas found a two-fold increase in post-traumatic stress and other mood and anxiety disorders and significantly poorer subjective ratings of health. Among liquidators, the most important risk factor was severity of exposure. In general population samples, the major risk factor was perceived exposure to harmful levels of radiation. These findings are consistent with results from A-bomb survivors and populations studied after the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. With regard to children, apart from findings from ecological studies that lack direct data on radiation or other teratologic exposures and local studies in Kiev, the epidemiologic evidence suggests that neither radiation exposure nor the stress of growing up in the shadow of the accident was associated with emotional disorders, cognitive dysfunction, or impaired academic performance. Thus, based on the studies of adults, the Chernobyl Forum concluded that mental health was the largest public health problem unleashed by the accident. Since mental health is a leading cause of disability, physical morbidity, and mortality, health monitoring after radiation accidents like Fukushima should include standard measures of well-being. Moreover, given the comorbidity of mental and physical health, the findings support the value of training non-psychiatrist physicians in recognizing and treating common mental health problems like depression in Fukushima patients.

Analysis of Construction Accidents in Turkey and Responsible Parties

PubMed Central

GÜRCANLI, G. Emre; MÜNGEN, Uğur

2013-01-01

Construction is one of the world’s biggest industry that includes jobs as diverse as building, civil engineering, demolition, renovation, repair and maintenance. Construction workers are exposed to a wide variety of hazards. This study analyzes 1,117 expert witness reports which were submitted to criminal and labour courts. These reports are from all regions of the country and cover the period 1972–2008. Accidents were classified by the consequence of the incident, time and main causes of the accident, construction type, occupation of the victim, activity at time of the accident and party responsible for the accident. Falls (54.1%), struck by thrown/falling object (12.9%), structural collapses (9.9%) and electrocutions (7.5%) rank first four places. The accidents were most likely between the hours 15:00 and 17:00 (22.6%), 10:00–12:00 (18.7%) and just after the lunchtime (9.9%). Additionally, the most common accidents were further divided into sub-types. Expert-witness assessments were used to identify the parties at fault and what acts of negligence typically lead to accidents. Nearly two thirds of the faulty and negligent acts are carried out by the employers and employees are responsible for almost one third of all cases. PMID:24077446

Accident study of torrential protective structures based on the French RTM database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncompain, Ingrid; Quefféléan, Yann; Carladous, Simon

2017-04-01

Torrential protective structures such as dikes, sediment traps, and check dams aim to reduce damage on elements at risk. They are built given a reference scenario. Nevertheless, this scenario can be exceeded or structures can fail because of their design or their ageing. We later talk about "accidents". The 1996 Aras disaster near Biescas (Spain) showed that consequences can be significant: 35 of 40 check dams were destroyed which involved 87 fatalities in a campsite. The accident probability and its consequences must be taken into account to analyze risk. Databases are useful tools to extract needed information. In France, the Restoration of Mountainous Areas department (RTM) has been public funded to develop a database, specific to mountainous areas (the Alps and the Pyrenees). Almost 12 500 check dams, 80 sediment traps and 600 dikes were registered in public forests in 2011. These samples were assumed significant for check dams and sediment traps but not for dikes because the most part was missing. In parallel, more than 31 000 torrential events were registered. Given these elements, an accident study was developed. We first extracted 1 925 events with accidents on protective structures: 39 % occurred during the 19th century and 53 % have occurred since 1900. Sediment traps were involved in 37 events, check dams in 336, and dikes in 1488. Then, a detailed analysis was specifically carried out for check dams. Event phenomena were extracted: torrential flood, liquid flood, snow avalanche, rock fall, and landslide. Accident typology was also specified: scouring, breaking of several check dams, total or partial destruction of one structure, overflowing. Causes of accidents on check dams were first analyzed. Torrential floods were responsible of 85 % of events (284 of 336) even if other phenomena must be also taken into account. Almost 45 % of events (152 of 336) involved total destruction of one or several check dams. Taking into account events for the last 150 years, 30 events were registered with destruction of several check dams: the annual probability of occurrence is 3.10-4. Analyzing consequences, only 11 of previously retained events (1925) were registered with fatalities. Finally, these quantitative elements were compared to qualitative feedback analysis from field practitioners and were illustrated with the 1987 Saint-Antoine event, in Modane. The total or partial destruction of 25 check dams released between 20 000 and 30 000 m3, which was one third of the estimated debris flow volume (85 000 m3) which damaged an industrial area. The lack of their maintenance partially explained this accident. As a conclusion, we must keep in mind that these results are limited to available data (all events have not been necessarily reported). Accidents on check dams are rare according to these data. It can be due to their general maintenance. This first analysis could be improved taking into account expert analysis, completing with information from other countries databases and formalizing the approach through a dependability analysis framework.

Effect of the Road Environment on Road Safety in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budzynski, Marcin; Jamroz, Kazimierz; Antoniuk, Marcin

2017-10-01

Run-off-road accidents tend to be very severe because when a vehicle leaves the road, it will often crash into a solid obstacle (tree, pole, supports, front wall of a culvert, barrier). A statistical analysis of the data shows that Poland’s main roadside hazard is trees and the severity of vehicles striking a tree in a run-off-road crash. The risks are particularly high in north-west Poland with many of the roads lined up with trees. Because of the existing rural road cross-sections, i.e. having trees directly on road edge followed immediately by drainage ditches, vulnerable road users are prevented from using shoulders and made to use the roadway. With no legal definition of the road safety zone in Polish regulations, attempts to remove roadside trees lead to major conflicts with environmental stakeholders. This is why a compromise should be sought between the safety of road users and protection of the natural environment and the aesthetics of the road experience. Rather than just cut the trees, other road safety measures should be used where possible to treat the hazardous spots by securing trees and obstacles and through speed management. Accidents that are directly related to the road environment fall into the following categories: hitting a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign, vehicle rollover on the shoulder, vehicle rollover on slopes or in ditch. The main consequence of a roadside hazard is not the likelihood of an accident itself but of its severity. Poland’s roadside accident severity is primarily the result of poor design or operation of road infrastructure. This comes as a consequence of a lack of regulations or poorly defined regulations and failure to comply with road safety standards. The new analytical model was designed as a combination of the different factors and one that will serve as a comprehensive model. It was assumed that it will describe the effect of the roadside on the number of accidents and their consequences. The design of the model was based on recommendations from analysing other models. The assumptions were the following: the model will be used to calculate risk factors and accident severity, the indicators will depend on number of vehicle kilometres travelled or traffic volumes, analyses will be based on accident data: striking a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign. Additional data will include roadside information and casualty density measures will be used - killed and injured.

Using probabilistic theory to develop interpretation guidelines for Y-STR profiles.

PubMed

Taylor, Duncan; Bright, Jo-Anne; Buckleton, John

2016-03-01

Y-STR profiling makes up a small but important proportion of forensic DNA casework. Often Y-STR profiles are used when autosomal profiling has failed to yield an informative result. Consequently Y-STR profiles are often from the most challenging samples. In addition to these points, Y-STR loci are linked, meaning that evaluation of haplotype probabilities are either based on overly simplified counting methods or computationally costly genetic models, neither of which extend well to the evaluation of mixed Y-STR data. For all of these reasons Y-STR data analysis has not seen the same advances as autosomal STR data. We present here a probabilistic model for the interpretation of Y-STR data. Due to the fact that probabilistic systems for Y-STR data are still some way from reaching active casework, we also describe how data can be analysed in a continuous way to generate interpretational thresholds and guidelines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2015-04-01

Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

A study of general aviation accidents involving children in 2011.

PubMed

Poland, Kristin M; Marshall, Nora M

2014-08-01

General aviation accidents involving children are rare, but when they do happen, little is known about the children involved, including their age, restraint status, and injuries. This lack of information is due to the fact that the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) did not always collect detailed data about passengers involved in accidents. Consequently, in 2011, NTSB investigators collected detailed information on children involved in general aviation accidents and this report provides a summary of the outcomes. During 2011, 19 general aviation accidents and incidents included 39 children who were 14 yr old and younger. In total, 26 children sustained fatal injuries, 2 sustained serious injuries, 5 sustained minor injuries, and 6 sustained no injuries. All of the children less than 2 yr old were restrained in a child restraint system and sustained no injuries in the accidents. At least one 4-yr-old child would have benefited from being restrained in a child restraint system. In addition, in two accidents, it was determined that children were likely sharing a single seat belt. This year-long data collection regarding children involved in general aviation accidents provided substantial information concerning age, restraint status, and injuries. In response to issues identified, the NTSB made improvements to its aviation data management system to routinely collect this information for future investigations and enable subsequent evaluation of the data regarding child passengers involved in general aviation accidents over the long term.

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

PubMed

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

[Psychological effects of road accidents: a challenge for public health].

PubMed

Waszkowska, Małgorzata; Merecz, Dorota

2006-01-01

The authors discuss psychological consequences of road accidents and the need for providing support for the victims and their families. The most common psychological effects include mental health problems, increased use of psychotropic drugs, and difficulty in performing occupational functions. Therefore, it is necessary to remodel the system of traffic safety and supplement it with a comprehensive system of support for both direct victims of accidents and their close relatives. To reach this goal, we need to develop optimal conditions for multidisciplinary research to investigate the effects of road accidents in Poland. This would make it possible to design effective psychological treatment and develop an institutional system for relevant support. However, some preventive measures can be taken right now, e.g., early intervention for severely injured victims during their hospital stay or providing support for non-injured victims and their families.

Long-Term Marine Traffic Monitoring for Environmental Safety in the Aegean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, T.; Gyftakis, S.; Charou, E.; Perantonis, S.; Nivolianitou, Z.; Koromila, I.; Makrygiorgos, A.

2015-04-01

The Aegean Sea is characterized by an extremely high marine safety risk, mainly due to the significant increase of the traffic of tankers from and to the Black Sea that pass through narrow straits formed by the 1600 Greek islands. Reducing the risk of a ship accident is therefore vital to all socio-economic and environmental sectors. This paper presents an online long-term marine traffic monitoring work-flow that focuses on extracting aggregated vessel risks using spatiotemporal analysis of multilayer information: vessel trajectories, vessel data, meteorological data, bathymetric / hydrographic data as well as information regarding environmentally important areas (e.g. protected high-risk areas, etc.). A web interface that enables user-friendly spatiotemporal queries is implemented at the frontend, while a series of data mining functionalities extracts aggregated statistics regarding: (a) marine risks and accident probabilities for particular areas (b) trajectories clustering information (c) general marine statistics (cargo types, etc.) and (d) correlation between spatial environmental importance and marine traffic risk. Towards this end, a set of data clustering and probabilistic graphical modelling techniques has been adopted.

Application of Fractal theory for crash rate prediction: Insights from random parameters and latent class tobit models.

PubMed

Chand, Sai; Dixit, Vinayak V

2018-03-01

The repercussions from congestion and accidents on major highways can have significant negative impacts on the economy and environment. It is a primary objective of transport authorities to minimize the likelihood of these phenomena taking place, to improve safety and overall network performance. In this study, we use the Hurst Exponent metric from Fractal Theory, as a congestion indicator for crash-rate modeling. We analyze one month of traffic speed data at several monitor sites along the M4 motorway in Sydney, Australia and assess congestion patterns with the Hurst Exponent of speed (H speed ). Random Parameters and Latent Class Tobit models were estimated, to examine the effect of congestion on historical crash rates, while accounting for unobserved heterogeneity. Using a latent class modeling approach, the motorway sections were probabilistically classified into two segments, based on the presence of entry and exit ramps. This will allow transportation agencies to implement appropriate safety/traffic countermeasures when addressing accident hotspots or inadequately managed sections of motorway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Game-Theoretical Model to Improve Process Plant Protection from Terrorist Attacks.

PubMed

Zhang, Laobing; Reniers, Genserik

2016-12-01

The New York City 9/11 terrorist attacks urged people from academia as well as from industry to pay more attention to operational security research. The required focus in this type of research is human intention. Unlike safety-related accidents, security-related accidents have a deliberate nature, and one has to face intelligent adversaries with characteristics that traditional probabilistic risk assessment techniques are not capable of dealing with. In recent years, the mathematical tool of game theory, being capable to handle intelligent players, has been used in a variety of ways in terrorism risk assessment. In this article, we analyze the general intrusion detection system in process plants, and propose a game-theoretical model for security management in such plants. Players in our model are assumed to be rational and they play the game with complete information. Both the pure strategy and the mixed strategy solutions are explored and explained. We illustrate our model by an illustrative case, and find that in our case, no pure strategy but, instead, a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium exists. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

The influence of age, seat belt, time of day, and type of vehicles on road accidents in Kerman, Iran.

PubMed

Mohammadi, Ghorbanali

2009-04-01

Traffic accidents are one of the main external causes of morbidity and mortality in various parts of the world, including Kerman, a city that has experienced rapid growth in the number of cars in the last 5 years. The objective of this article was to identify the influence of age, belt use, time of day, and type of vehicle road accidents of southeastern Iran. This study used data obtained from Kerman police force reports on incidents of road traffic accidents (RTAs). We analyzed the police reports of total road accidents that occurred from 2005 to 2007. The involvement in fatal and non-fatal accidents was determined for females than among males. The analysis of the data indicated that the female drivers have a much better road safety record than male drivers, especially with regards to their involvement in severe traffic accidents. Forty-nine percent of accidents involve passenger cars, which is higher than other type of vehicles. Female drivers were found to be generally safer drivers than their male counterparts; male drivers who did not use seat belts had a higher involvement rate in road traffic accidents. Time of day analyses suggested that the problems of accidents in darkness are not a matter of visibility but a consequence of the way drivers use the roads at night. A number of recommended measures for the improvement of road safety in southeastern Iran are suggested.

Woodworking injuries: a comparative study of work-related and hobby-related accidents.

PubMed

Loisel, F; Bonin, S; Jeunet, L; Pauchot, J; Tropet, Y; Obert, L

2014-10-01

The primary objective of this study was to describe the injury characteristics and demographics of patients injured during woodworking activities, upon their arrival to the emergency department in a regional of France where this industry is prevalent. The secondary objective was to compare patient and injury characteristics for work-related and hobby-related accidents. A cohort of 87 patients who had suffered a woodworking accident over a two-year period was evaluated; 79 were available for follow-up. The context and circumstances of the accident, nature and location of the injuries and patient demographics were recorded. Hobby-related accidents accounted for two-thirds of the accidents (51/79). Most of the injured workers were either loggers (35%) or carpenters (46%). The hand was injured in 53 cases (67%). Work-related accidents resulted in significantly more serious consequences in terms of hospital stay, work stoppage, resumption of work or retraining than hobby-related accidents. For the workplace accidents, 86% occurred on new machines; more than 25% of the machines involved in accidents at home were over 15 years. Sixty-eight per cent of workers were wearing their safety gear, while only 31% of those injured during recreational woodworking wore the appropriate gear. Several elements of prevention should be improved: information about the need to maintain the equipment, protect the worker with suitable clothing, and learn which maneuvers are considered hazardous. Safety gear should be regularly inspected in the workplace. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Tracking buoys research for oil spilling with the wireless charging equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Di; Zhao, Ping

2018-03-01

This paper describes thewirelesscharging equipment for achieving oil spill tracking buoys detection in satellite images acquired after tanker accidents or ship oil spill accidents. This information could allow the evolution of residues dumped at sea to be tracked. The validity of this process is demonstrated using several experiment acquired over several regions (Dalian and Tianjin coasts in China), in which a tanker accident has occurred and as a consequence oil spillage has taken place. Thus, this purpose of paper is developed for the active surveillance and rapid response to marine oil spills tracking buoys with wirelesscharging equipmentis important and essential to environment protection. It may appears of leak places for the Wire Charging Equipment for marine oil spills tracking buoys monitoring needs, and achieved instant alarm technology and equipment, guarantees leak occurred timely obtained alarm information. In order toproviding oil spill accidents emergency quickly reaction time and prepared. The maximum degree reduce oil leak and accidents caused influences are ensured.

Managing the Fukushima Challenge

PubMed Central

Suzuki, Atsuyuki

2014-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi accident raises a fundamental question: Can science and technology prevent the inevitability of serious accidents, especially those with low probabilities and high consequences? This question reminds us of a longstanding challenge with the trans-sciences, originally addressed by Alvin Weinberg well before the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl accidents. This article, revisiting Weinberg's issue, aims at gaining insights from the accident with a special emphasis on the sociotechnical or human behavioral aspects lying behind the accident's causes. In particular, an innovative method for managing the challenge is explored referring to behavioral science approaches to a decision-making process on risk management; such as managing human behavioral risks with information asymmetry, seeking a rational consensus with communicative action, and pursuing procedural rationality through interactions with the outer environment. In short, this article describes the emerging need for Japan to transform its national safety management institutions so that these might be based on interactive communication with parties inside and outside Japan. PMID:24954604

Effect of the Duration Time of a Nuclear Accident on Radiological Health Consequences

PubMed Central

Jeong, Hyojoon; Park, Misun; Jeong, Haesun; Hwang, Wontae; Kim, Eunhan; Han, Moonhee

2014-01-01

This study aimed to quantify the effect of duration time of a nuclear accident on the radiation dose of a densely populated area and the resulting acute health effects. In the case of nuclear accidents, the total emissions of radioactive materials can be classified into several categories. Therefore, the release information is very important for the assessment of risk to the public. We confirmed that when the duration time of the emissions are prolonged to 7 hours, the concentrations of radioactive substances in the ambient air are reduced by 50% compared to that when the duration time of emission is one hour. This means that the risk evaluation using only the first wind direction of an accident is very conservative, so it has to be used as a screening level for the risk assessment. Furthermore, it is judged that the proper control of the emission time of a nuclear accident can minimize the health effects on residents. PMID:24619120

An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

PubMed

Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

2002-01-28

The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre.

Moral empiricism and the bias for act-based rules.

PubMed

Ayars, Alisabeth; Nichols, Shaun

2017-10-01

Previous studies on rule learning show a bias in favor of act-based rules, which prohibit intentionally producing an outcome but not merely allowing the outcome. Nichols, Kumar, Lopez, Ayars, and Chan (2016) found that exposure to a single sample violation in which an agent intentionally causes the outcome was sufficient for participants to infer that the rule was act-based. One explanation is that people have an innate bias to think rules are act-based. We suggest an alternative empiricist account: since most rules that people learn are act-based, people form an overhypothesis (Goodman, 1955) that rules are typically act-based. We report three studies that indicate that people can use information about violations to form overhypotheses about rules. In study 1, participants learned either three "consequence-based" rules that prohibited allowing an outcome or three "act-based" rules that prohibiting producing the outcome; in a subsequent learning task, we found that participants who had learned three consequence-based rules were more likely to think that the new rule prohibited allowing an outcome. In study 2, we presented participants with either 1 consequence-based rule or 3 consequence-based rules, and we found that those exposed to 3 such rules were more likely to think that a new rule was also consequence based. Thus, in both studies, it seems that learning 3 consequence-based rules generates an overhypothesis to expect new rules to be consequence-based. In a final study, we used a more subtle manipulation. We exposed participants to examples act-based or accident-based (strict liability) laws and then had them learn a novel rule. We found that participants who were exposed to the accident-based laws were more likely to think a new rule was accident-based. The fact that participants' bias for act-based rules can be shaped by evidence from other rules supports the idea that the bias for act-based rules might be acquired as an overhypothesis from the preponderance of act-based rules. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Somatic consequences of cannabis use].

PubMed

Cottencin, Olivier; Bence, Camille; Rolland, Benjamin; Karila, Laurent

2013-12-01

Cannabis can have negative effects in its users, and a range of acute and chronic health problems associated with cannabis use has been dentified. Acute cannabis consumption is rarely lethal but it is associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accident because of longer reaction time or impaired motor coordination. Chronic effects of cannabis use include generally cardiovascular and respiratory consequences but there are also oral, gastrointestinal, cutaneous and mucous, metabolic, gynecologic and obstetrical, sexual consequences, and cancer But associated tobacco smoking or other potential confounders may explain part of those somatic consequences.

Health consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep.

PubMed

Kecklund, Göran; Axelsson, John

2016-11-01

This review summarises the literature on shift work and its relation to insufficient sleep, chronic diseases, and accidents. It is based on 38 meta-analyses and 24 systematic reviews, with additional narrative reviews and articles used for outlining possible mechanisms by which shift work may cause accidents and adverse health. Evidence shows that the effect of shift work on sleep mainly concerns acute sleep loss in connection with night shifts and early morning shifts. A link also exists between shift work and accidents, type 2 diabetes (relative risk range 1.09-1.40), weight gain, coronary heart disease (relative risk 1.23), stroke (relative risk 1.05), and cancer (relative risk range 1.01-1.32), although the original studies showed mixed results. The relations of shift work to cardiometabolic diseases and accidents mimic those with insufficient sleep. Laboratory studies indicate that cardiometabolic stress and cognitive impairments are increased by shift work, as well as by sleep loss. Given that the health and safety consequences of shift work and insufficient sleep are very similar, they are likely to share common mechanisms. However, additional research is needed to determine whether insufficient sleep is a causal pathway for the adverse health effects associated with shift work. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

What's in a Name? Probabilistic Inference of Religious Community from South Asian Names

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Susewind, Raphael

2015-01-01

Fine-grained data on religious communities are often considered sensitive in South Asia and consequently remain inaccessible. Yet without such data, statistical research on communal relations and group-based inequality remains superficial, hampering the development of appropriate policy measures to prevent further social exclusion on the basis of…

Functional Topography of Early Periventricular Brain Lesions in Relation to Cytoarchitectonic Probabilistic Maps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Staudt, Martin; Ticini, Luca F.; Grodd, Wolfgang; Krageloh-Mann, Ingeborg; Karnath, Hans-Otto

2008-01-01

Early periventricular brain lesions can not only cause cerebral palsy, but can also induce a reorganization of language. Here, we asked whether these different functional consequences can be attributed to topographically distinct portions of the periventricular white matter damage. Eight patients with pre- and perinatally acquired left-sided…

Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

2007-01-01

Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

Developmental and Gender Related Differences in Response Switches after Nonrepresentative Negative Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jansen, Brenda R. J.; van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C. K.; Huizenga, Hilde M.

2014-01-01

In many decision making tasks negative feedback is probabilistic and, as a consequence, may be given when the decision is actually correct. This feedback can be referred to as nonrepresentative negative feedback. In the current study, we investigated developmental and gender related differences in such switching after nonrepresentative negative…

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... instrumentation with alarms, and detection hardware such as hydrocarbon sensors.); (4) Consequences of failure of...

Review of Global Menace of Road Accidents with Special Reference to Malaysia- A Social Perspective

PubMed Central

Kareem, Abdul

2003-01-01

Road accident is ‘a global tragedy’ with ever-rising trend. The goal of this article includes review of the causes and nature of accidents, statistical data regarding road accidents and the economical impact. 1.17 million deaths occur each year worldwide due to road accidents 70 % of which occur in developing countries. 65% of deaths involve pedestrians, 35 % of which are children. Estimates suggest that 23–34 million people are injured worldwide every year in road crashes - a value almost twice that previously estimated. It is estimated that more than 200 U.S. citizens die each year due to road accidents abroad. Every year in Europe, more than 50,000 peoples are killed in road accidents, and more than 150,000 remain disabled. It is a sad fact that the total number of road accidents in Malaysia exceeded 223,000 in 1999. On the average, 16 persons died from these road accidents, every single day in 1999. Lack of attention, reckless driving, lack of proper protection, speeding, bad personal habits, social and behavioral misconduct and inconsiderate drivers of larger vehicles are some of the problems that cause accidents. In Malaysia, motorcycle fatal accidents (60%) warrant a high degree of concern. Young children and senior citizens are found to be in the vulnerable age group. In Malaysia, in 1999 alone, general insurers paid RM1.67 billion or an average of RM4.6 million a day on motor claims. It is now recognized that road traffic accidents represent a major public health problem, because of the high number of victims involved and because of the seriousness of the consequences for themselves and for their families. PMID:23386795

Probability in reasoning: a developmental test on conditionals.

PubMed

Barrouillet, Pierre; Gauffroy, Caroline

2015-04-01

Probabilistic theories have been claimed to constitute a new paradigm for the psychology of reasoning. A key assumption of these theories is captured by what they call the Equation, the hypothesis that the meaning of the conditional is probabilistic in nature and that the probability of If p then q is the conditional probability, in such a way that P(if p then q)=P(q|p). Using the probabilistic truth-table task in which participants are required to evaluate the probability of If p then q sentences, the present study explored the pervasiveness of the Equation through ages (from early adolescence to adulthood), types of conditionals (basic, causal, and inducements) and contents. The results reveal that the Equation is a late developmental achievement only endorsed by a narrow majority of educated adults for certain types of conditionals depending on the content they involve. Age-related changes in evaluating the probability of all the conditionals studied closely mirror the development of truth-value judgements observed in previous studies with traditional truth-table tasks. We argue that our modified mental model theory can account for this development, and hence for the findings related with the probability task, which do not consequently support the probabilistic approach of human reasoning over alternative theories. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jadaan, Osama

2003-01-01

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

Uncertainty Analysis of Consequence Management (CM) Data Products.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, Brian D.; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole

The goal of this project is to develop and execute methods for characterizing uncertainty in data products that are deve loped and distributed by the DOE Consequence Management (CM) Program. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty from across the CM skill sets contribute to the ultimate p roduction of CM data products. This report presents the methods used to develop a probabilistic framework to characterize this uncertainty and provides results for an uncertainty analysis for a study scenario analyzed using this framework.

Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuadra A.; Bari R.; Cheng, L-Y

2012-11-11

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unitmore » 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.« less

Analysis of a Hypergolic Propellant Explosion During Processing of Launch Vehicles in the VAB

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chrostowski, Jon D.; Gan Wenshui; Campbell, Michael D.

2010-01-01

NASA is developing launch vehicles to support missions to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), the moon and deep space. Whether manned or unmanned, the vehicle components will likely be integrated in the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and typically include a fueled spacecraft (SC) that sits on top of one or more stages. The processing of a fueled SC involves hazardous operations when it is brought into the VAB Transfer Aisle and lifted a significant height for mating with lower stages. Accidents resulting from these hazardous operations could impact unrelated personnel working in buildings adjacent to the VAB. Safe separation distances based on the DOD Explosives Standards Quantity-Distance (Q-D) approach result in large IBD arcs. This paper presents site-specific air blast and fragmentation hazard analyses for comparison with the Q-D arcs as well as consequence and risk analyses to provide added information for the decision maker. A new physics-based fragmentation model is presented that includes: a) the development of a primary fragment list (which defines the fragment characteristics) associated with a hypergolic propellant explosion, b) a description of a 3D fragment bounce model, c) the results of probabilistic Monte-Carlo simulations (that include uncertainties in the fragment characteristics) to determine: i) the hazardous fragment density distance, ii) the expected number of wall/roof impacts and penetrations to over 40 buildings adjacent to the VAB, and iii) the risk to building occupants.

Station Blackout: A case study in the interaction of mechanistic and probabilistic safety analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith; Diego Mandelli; Cristian Rabiti

2013-11-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margins is important to improved decision making about nuclear power plant design, operation, and plant life extension. As research and development (R&D) in the light-water reactor (LWR) Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plant safety and performance will become known. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway R&D is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim tomore » improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe the RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario.« less

NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document for Human Health and Performance Models and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, Marlei; Mulugeta, Lealem; Nelson, Emily S.; Myers, Jerry G.

2014-01-01

Rigorous verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) processes are imperative to ensure that models and simulations (MS) are sufficiently reliable to address issues within their intended scope. The NASA standard for MS, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was a resultant outcome of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) to ensure MS are developed, applied, and interpreted appropriately for making decisions that may impact crew or mission safety. Because the 7009 focus is engineering systems, a NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document is being developed to augment the 7009 and provide information, tools, and techniques applicable to the probabilistic and deterministic biological MS more prevalent in human health and performance (HHP) and space biomedical research and operations.

The influence of economic incentives linked to road safety indicators on accidents: the case of toll concessions in Spain.

PubMed

Rangel, Thais; Vassallo, José Manuel; Herraiz, Israel

2013-10-01

The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether the incentives incorporated in toll highway concession contracts in order to encourage private operators to adopt measures to reduce accidents are actually effective at improving safety. To this end, we implemented negative binomial regression models using information about highway characteristics and accident data from toll highway concessions in Spain from 2007 to 2009. Our results show that even though road safety is highly influenced by variables that are not managed by the contractor, such as the annual average daily traffic (AADT), the percentage of heavy vehicles on the highway, number of lanes, number of intersections and average speed; the implementation of these incentives has a positive influence on the reduction of accidents and injuries. Consequently, this measure seems to be an effective way of improving safety performance in road networks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The New Zealand accident compensation scheme.

PubMed

Barter, R W

1977-05-01

Reference is made to legislation concerned with the introduction of the New Zealand Accident Compensation Scheme in 1974. The author's experience of the Scheme is based on an exchange visit in 1975. The basic principles are community responsibility and universal entitlement to compensation. Earnings-related benefits are paid to the injured person, and flat-rate payments to non-earners. The Scheme is administered by a three-man Commission with wide responsibilities for accident prevention, rehabilitation services, administration of funds, records, public relations, and an independent Appeals Authority. There have been far reaching consequences on medical practice. The Commission construe the phrase 'Personal Injury by Accident' as damage to the human system which is not designed by the person injured: the implications of such a definition are briefly discussed. The administrative costs of any similar Scheme in the United Kingdom would be enormous and it is doubtful whether the benefits would justify the cost.

Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

PubMed

Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

2016-01-01

Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.

[Hang-gliding accidents in high mountains. Apropos of 200 cases].

PubMed

Foray, J; Abrassart, S; Femmy, T; Aldilli, M

1991-01-01

A review of 200 cases of "paragliding" accidents in high mountain areas has been completed. The first flights have been murderous, a thesis written in 1987 in Grenoble showing seven dead out of 97 casualties. Since then the statistics seen to be improving as a consequence of the setting of regulations and the establishment of "paragliding" schools. The more frequent accidents happen on landing: in 70% of the cases fractures of the "tibiotarsienne", the wrist and the spinal column prevail. They happen to young adults between 20 and 40 years old, with a variable experience. Preventive measures consist in a greater prudence, a good physical condition and a precise aerological knowledge. The adepts of this sport have understood that wearing a helmet and appropriate shoes could reduce the gravity of the accidents. "Paragliding" if not a dangerous sport is certainly a risky one.

Development of Northeast Asia Nuclear Power Plant Accident Simulator.

PubMed

Kim, Juyub; Kim, Juyoul; Po, Li-Chi Cliff

2017-06-15

A conclusion from the lessons learned after the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi accident was that Korea needs a tool to estimate consequences from a major accident that could occur at a nuclear power plant located in a neighboring country. This paper describes a suite of computer-based codes to be used by Korea's nuclear emergency response staff for training and potentially operational support in Korea's national emergency preparedness and response program. The systems of codes, Northeast Asia Nuclear Accident Simulator (NANAS), consist of three modules: source-term estimation, atmospheric dispersion prediction and dose assessment. To quickly assess potential doses to the public in Korea, NANAS includes specific reactor data from the nuclear power plants in China, Japan and Taiwan. The completed simulator is demonstrated using data for a hypothetical release. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Post-Chernobyl accident radioactivity measurements in the Comunidad Autonoma de Valencia, Spain.

PubMed

Ortiz, J; Ballesteros, L; Serradell, V

1992-03-01

Increased atmospheric radioactivity after the accident in Chernobyl was first detected on air filters. Measurements were begun in Valencia on May 2, 1986, with the maximum activity being observed around May 3-4, 1986. As a consequence of this accident, annual campaigns of measurements on migrating birds (several species of aquatic birds and song-thrushes) were started. The data corresponding to the campaign immediately after the accident (1986/87) show a generalized contamination (approximately 50% of the measured specimens). Significant levels of 134Cs, 137Cs and 110Agm were found. It is important to note that 110Agm is only present in Aythya ferina. In the successive campaigns in 1988/89 and 1989/91 few samples were found to be contaminated and only 137Cs was identified. Strontium-90 was measured and identified in some specimens, mainly in their bones.

Injuries are not accidents

PubMed Central

Gutiérrez, María Isabel

2014-01-01

Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

School sports accidents: analysis of causes, modes, and frequencies.

PubMed

Kelm, J; Ahlhelm, F; Pape, D; Pitsch, W; Engel, C

2001-01-01

About 5% of all school children are seriously injured during physical education every year. Because of its influence on children's attitude toward sports and the economic aspects, an evaluation of causes and medical consequences is necessary. In this study, 213 school sports accidents were investigated. Besides diagnosis, the localization of injuries, as well as the duration of the sick leave were documented. Average age of injured students was 13 years. Most of the injured students blamed themselves for the accident. The most common injuries were sprains, contusions, and fractures. Main reasons for the accidents were faults in basic motion training. Playing soccer and basketball were the most frequent reasons for injuries. The upper extremity was more frequently involved than the lower extremity. Sports physicians and teachers should work out a program outlining the individual needs and capabilities of the injured students to reintegrate them into physical education.

Agricultural implications of the Fukushima nuclear accident

PubMed Central

Nakanishi, Tomoko M.

2016-01-01

More than 4 years has passed since the accident at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Immediately after the accident, 40 to 50 academic staff of the Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences at the University of Tokyo created an independent team to monitor the behavior of the radioactive materials in the field and their effects on agricultural farm lands, forests, rivers, animals, etc. When the radioactive nuclides from the nuclear power plant fell, they were instantly adsorbed at the site where they first touched; consequently, the fallout was found as scattered spots on the surface of anything that was exposed to the air at the time of the accident. The adsorption has become stronger over time, so the radioactive nuclides are now difficult to remove. The findings of our study regarding the wide range of effects on agricultural fields are summarized in this report. PMID:27538845

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.

Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

Implementation of numerical simulation techniques in analysis of the accidents in complex technological systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Klishin, G.S.; Seleznev, V.E.; Aleoshin, V.V.

1997-12-31

Gas industry enterprises such as main pipelines, compressor gas transfer stations, gas extracting complexes belong to the energy intensive industry. Accidents there can result into the catastrophes and great social, environmental and economic losses. Annually, according to the official data several dozens of large accidents take place at the pipes in the USA and Russia. That is why prevention of the accidents, analysis of the mechanisms of their development and prediction of their possible consequences are acute and important tasks nowadays. The accidents reasons are usually of a complicated character and can be presented as a complex combination of natural,more » technical and human factors. Mathematical and computer simulations are safe, rather effective and comparatively inexpensive methods of the accident analysis. It makes it possible to analyze different mechanisms of a failure occurrence and development, to assess its consequences and give recommendations to prevent it. Besides investigation of the failure cases, numerical simulation techniques play an important role in the treatment of the diagnostics results of the objects and in further construction of mathematical prognostic simulations of the object behavior in the period of time between two inspections. While solving diagnostics tasks and in the analysis of the failure cases, the techniques of theoretical mechanics, of qualitative theory of different equations, of mechanics of a continuous medium, of chemical macro-kinetics and optimizing techniques are implemented in the Conversion Design Bureau {number_sign}5 (DB{number_sign}5). Both universal and special numerical techniques and software (SW) are being developed in DB{number_sign}5 for solution of such tasks. Almost all of them are calibrated on the calculations of the simulated and full-scale experiments performed at the VNIIEF and MINATOM testing sites. It is worth noting that in the long years of work there has been established a fruitful and effective collaboration of theoreticians, mathematicians and experimentalists of the institute to solve such tasks.« less

Future directions for transportation safety research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

Many opportunities now exist that can contribute significantly to preventing accidents, mitigating consequences, and improving responses to incidents in all modes. Two parallel and interrelated areas that offer particularly promising results are tech...

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corradini, M. L.; Peko, D.; Farmer, M.

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safetymore » initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.« less

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Reactor Safety Technologies Pathway Technical Program Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corradini, M. L.

In the aftermath of the March 2011 multi-unit accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (Fukushima), the nuclear community has been reassessing certain safety assumptions about nuclear reactor plant design, operations and emergency actions, particularly with respect to extreme events that might occur and that are beyond each plant’s current design basis. Because of our significant domestic investment in nuclear reactor technology (99 operating reactors in the fleet of commercial LWRs with five under construction), the United States has been a major leader internationally in these activities. The U.S. nuclear industry is voluntarily pursuing a number of additional safetymore » initiatives. The NRC continues to evaluate and, where deemed appropriate, establish new requirements for ensuring adequate protection of public health and safety in the occurrence of low probability events at nuclear plants; (e.g., mitigation strategies for beyond design basis events initiated by external events like seismic or flooding initiators). The DOE has also played a major role in the U.S. response to the Fukushima accident. Initially, DOE worked with the Japanese and the international community to help develop a more complete understanding of the Fukushima accident progression and its consequences, and to respond to various safety concerns emerging from uncertainties about the nature of and the effects from the accident. DOE R&D activities are focused on providing scientific and technical insights, data, analyses methods that ultimately support industry efforts to enhance safety. These activities are expected to further enhance the safety performance of currently operating U.S. nuclear power plants as well as better characterize the safety performance of future U.S. plants. In pursuing this area of R&D, DOE recognizes that the commercial nuclear industry is ultimately responsible for the safe operation of licensed nuclear facilities. As such, industry is considered the primary “end user” of the results from this DOE-sponsored work. The response to the Fukushima accident has been global, and there is a continuing multinational interest in collaborations to better quantify accident consequences and to incorporate lessons learned from the accident. DOE will continue to seek opportunities to facilitate collaborations that are of value to the U.S. industry, particularly where the collaboration provides access to vital data from the accident or otherwise supports or leverages other important R&D work. The purpose of the Reactor Safety Technology R&D is to improve understanding of beyond design basis events and reduce uncertainty in severe accident progression, phenomenology, and outcomes using existing analytical codes and information gleaned from severe accidents, in particular the Fukushima Daiichi events. This information will be used to aid in developing mitigating strategies and improving severe accident management guidelines for the current light water reactor fleet.« less

Identifying the Safety Factors over Traffic Signs in State Roads using a Panel Quantile Regression Approach.

PubMed

Šarić, Željko; Xu, Xuecai; Duan, Li; Babić, Darko

2018-06-20

This study intended to investigate the interactions between accident rate and traffic signs in state roads located in Croatia, and accommodate the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. The data from 130 state roads between 2012 and 2016 were collected from Traffic Accident Database System maintained by the Republic of Croatia Ministry of the Interior. To address the heterogeneity, a panel quantile regression model was proposed, in which quantile regression model offers a more complete view and a highly comprehensive analysis of the relationship between accident rate and traffic signs, while the panel data model accommodates the heterogeneity attributed to unobserved factors. Results revealed that (1) low visibility of material damage (MD) and death or injured (DI) increased the accident rate; (2) the number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs were more likely to reduce the accident rate; (3)average speed limit and the number of invalid traffic signs per km exhibited a high accident rate. To our knowledge, it's the first attempt to analyze the interactions between accident consequences and traffic signs by employing a panel quantile regression model; by involving the visibility, the present study demonstrates that the low visibility causes a relatively higher risk of MD and DI; It is noteworthy that average speed limit corresponds with accident rate positively; The number of mandatory signs and the number of warning signs are more likely to reduce the accident rate; The number of invalid traffic signs per km are significant for accident rate, thus regular maintenance should be kept for a safer roadway environment.

Females do not have more injury road accidents on Friday the 13th

PubMed Central

Radun, Igor; Summala, Heikki

2004-01-01

Background This study reinvestigated the recent finding that females – but not males – die in traffic accidents on Friday the 13th more often than on other Fridays (Näyhä S: Traffic deaths and superstition on Friday the 13th. Am J Psychiatry 2002, 159: 2110–2111). The current study used matched setting and injury accident data base that is more numerous than fatality data. If such an effect would be caused by impaired psychic and psychomotor functioning due to more frequent anxiety among women, it should also appear in injury crashes. Methods We used the national Finnish road accident database for 1989–2002. To control seasonal variation, 21 Fridays the 13th were compared in a matched design to previous and following Fridays, excluding all holidays, on number of accidents, male/female responsibility for accidents, and the number of dead, injured and overall number of active participants (drivers, pedestrians and bicyclists) as a consequence of the accident. Results There were no significant differences in any examined aspect of road injury accidents among the three Fridays, either in females or males. Women were not overrepresented in crashes that occurred on Fridays 13th. Conclusion There is no consistent evidence for females having more road traffic crashes on Fridays the 13th, based on deaths or road accident statistics. However, this does not imply a non-existent effect of superstition related anxiety on accident risk as no exposure-to-risk data are available. People who are anxious of "Black Friday" may stay home, or at least avoid driving a car. PMID:15546493

[Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

PubMed

Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

1998-08-01

The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

A comparison of the hazard perception ability of accident-involved and accident-free motorcycle riders.

PubMed

Cheng, Andy S K; Ng, Terry C K; Lee, Hoe C

2011-07-01

Hazard perception is the ability to read the road and is closely related to involvement in traffic accidents. It consists of both cognitive and behavioral components. Within the cognitive component, visual attention is an important function of driving whereas driving behavior, which represents the behavioral component, can affect the hazard perception of the driver. Motorcycle riders are the most vulnerable types of road user. The primary purpose of this study was to deepen our understanding of the correlation of different subtypes of visual attention and driving violation behaviors and their effect on hazard perception between accident-free and accident-involved motorcycle riders. Sixty-three accident-free and 46 accident-involved motorcycle riders undertook four neuropsychological tests of attention (Digit Vigilance Test, Color Trails Test-1, Color Trails Test-2, and Symbol Digit Modalities Test), filled out the Chinese Motorcycle Rider Driving Violation (CMRDV) Questionnaire, and viewed a road-user-based hazard situation with an eye-tracking system to record the response latencies to potentially dangerous traffic situations. The results showed that both the divided and selective attention of accident-involved motorcycle riders were significantly inferior to those of accident-free motorcycle riders, and that accident-involved riders exhibited significantly higher driving violation behaviors and took longer to identify hazardous situations compared to their accident-free counterparts. However, the results of the regression analysis showed that aggressive driving violation CMRDV score significantly predicted hazard perception and accident involvement of motorcycle riders. Given that all participants were mature and experienced motorcycle riders, the most plausible explanation for the differences between them is their driving style (influenced by an undesirable driving attitude), rather than skill deficits per se. The present study points to the importance of conceptualizing the influence of different driving behaviors so as to enrich our understanding of the role of human factors in road accidents and consequently develop effective countermeasures to prevent traffic accidents involving motorcycles. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring inattention and distraction in the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database.

PubMed

Talbot, Rachel; Fagerlind, Helen; Morris, Andrew

2013-11-01

Distraction and inattention are considered to be very important and prevalent factors in the causation of road accidents. There have been many recent research studies which have attempted to understand the circumstances under which a driver becomes distracted or inattentive and how distraction/inattention can be prevented. Both factors are thought to have become more important in recent times partly due to the evolution of in-vehicle information and communication technology. This study describes a methodology that was developed to understand when factors such as distraction and inattention may have been contributors to crashes and also describes some of the consequences of distraction and inattention in terms of subsequent driver actions. The study uses data relating to distraction and inattention from the SafetyNet Accident Causation Database. This database was formulated as part of the SafetyNet project to address the lack of representative in-depth accident causation data within the European Union. Data were collected in 6 European countries using 'on-scene' and 'nearly on-scene' crash investigation methodologies. 32% of crashes recorded in the database, involved at least one driver, rider or pedestrian, who was determined to be 'Inattentive' or 'Distracted'. 212 of the drivers were assigned 'Distraction' and 140 drivers were given the code 'Inattention'. It was found that both distraction and inattention often lead to missed observations within the driving task and consequently 'Timing' or 'Direction' become critical events in the aetiology of crashes. In addition, the crash types and outcomes may differ according to the type and nature of the distraction and inattention as determined by the in-depth investigations. The development of accident coding methodology is described in this study as is its evolution into the Driver Reliability and Error Analysis Model (DREAM) version 3.0. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

PubMed

Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period.

PubMed

Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

2013-01-01

Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers.

Assessment of the prevalence of occupational accidents and their influential actors in an electricity distribution company during a five-year period

PubMed Central

Sadeghain, Marzieh; Farid, Ramin Ataei; Dormohammadi, Ali; Aghaei, Habib Allah; Rahmani, Abdolrasoul; Farhadi, Rozita; Eskandari, Rasoul; Karchani, Mohsen

2013-01-01

Background: Occupational accidents have been considered as one of the most important crippling factors contributing to disabilities and life-threatening situations in many countries. This study was conducted to survey the prevalence of occupational accidents and the factors of that lead to injuries in an Electricity Distribution Company during a five-year period. Methods: In this descriptive study, the accident report form included items asking about the season of the year when the accident occurred, the ages and the average age of those injured, the type of employment, work experience, nature of the injuries that occurred, parts of the body affected, treatments that were applied, average number of days lost per accident, the levels of education of those involved, and their marital status. Data was analyzed using SPSS. Results: A total of 66 Electricity Distribution Company workers were determined to be suffering from injuries due to accidents. The accidents mostly occurred in the summer (33%). Most of the injured workers (16.7%) belonged to the age groups of 25 to 29 and 40 to 44; there were no accidents reported for workers who were less than 20. About 48% of the accident victims had to be hospitalized. Furthermore, 35% of the accident victims were treated in outpatient clinics, and 7.4% of the accident victims died. We demonstrated that there were significant relationships between: 1) marital status and accidental injuries (P<0.001); 2) the average age of those injured among both permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001), 3) the level of education and the consequences of the accidents (P<0.001), and 4) the average of days lost per accident in both the permanent and temporary workers (P<0.001). In this study, no significant relationships were found between the accident occurrence and age (P>0.05) or work experience and the distribution of the accidents (P>0.05). Conclusion: This study indicated that most of the injuries in these accidents were related to the nature of employment, marital status, and level of education. The results showed the necessity for providing appropriate safety training for the workers. PMID:26120397

Study of self test devices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-07-15

The study was conducted to determine whether individuals might change their drinking driving behavior if they are informed of their intoxication level and its implications relative to accident involvement and legal consequences. Individuals at public...

[Aspects of aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in male liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences].

PubMed

Skavysh, V A

2009-01-01

The author considered aetiology of neuro-psychic disorders in liquidators of Chernobyl nuclear power accident consequences, demonstrated scientific value of studying the liquidators cohort, as they were protected from internal radiation factors and reside on radiation "pure" territories. External radiation doses in those liquidators vary from 16 cGy to 18.7 +/- 10.8 cGy, according to the author. Catamnesis enabled to doubt radiation aetiology of psychic organic syndrome revealed in 1991-1994 by clinical and instrumental studies among 53.6% of 213 male examinees. According to the author, prolonged over 1-2 months external radiation of low dose could not cause health deterioration in adult males. Diagnosed psychic organic syndrome and vascular encephalopathy in some cases could have alcohol aetiology. This conclusion is not extrapolated to the whole liquidators cohort.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, J.E.; Roussin, R.W.; Gilpin, H.

A version of the CRAC2 computer code applicable for use in analyses of consequences and risks of reactor accidents in case work for environmental statements has been implemented for use on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Data General MV/8000 computer system. Input preparation is facilitated through the use of an interactive computer program which operates on an IBM personal computer. The resulting CRAC2 input deck is transmitted to the MV/8000 by using an error-free file transfer mechanism. To facilitate the use of CRAC2 at NRC, relevant background material on input requirements and model descriptions has been extracted from four reports -more » ''Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences,'' Version 2, NUREG/CR-2326 (SAND81-1994) and ''CRAC2 Model Descriptions,'' NUREG/CR-2552 (SAND82-0342), ''CRAC Calculations for Accident Sections of Environmental Statements, '' NUREG/CR-2901 (SAND82-1693), and ''Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code,'' NUREG/CR-4038 (ORNL-6114). When this background information is combined with instructions on the input processor, this report provides a self-contained guide for preparing CRAC2 input data with a specific orientation toward applications on the MV/8000. 8 refs., 11 figs., 10 tabs.« less

Loss Estimations due to Earthquakes and Secondary Technological Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

2009-04-01

Expected loss and damage assessment due to natural and technological disasters are of primary importance for emergency management just after the disaster, as well as for development and implementation of preventive measures plans. The paper addresses the procedures and simulation models for loss estimations due to strong earthquakes and secondary technological accidents. The mathematical models for shaking intensity distribution, damage to buildings and structures, debris volume, number of fatalities and injuries due to earthquakes and technological accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities are considered, which are used in geographical information systems assigned for these purposes. The criteria of technological accidents occurrence are developed on the basis of engineering analysis of past events' consequences. The paper is providing the results of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation and individual seismic risk assessment taking into account the secondary technological hazards at regional and urban levels. The individual risk is understood as the probability of death (or injuries) due to possible hazardous event within one year in a given territory. It is determined through mathematical expectation of social losses taking into account the number of inhabitants in the considered settlement and probability of natural and/or technological disaster.

Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel: Biomedical and Environmental Effects Subpanel report for Galileo

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anspaugh, L.R.; Blanton, J.O.; Bollinger, L.J.

1989-10-01

This report of the Biomedical and Environmental Effects Subpanel (BEES) of the Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel (INSRP), for the Galileo space mission addresses the possible radiological consequences of postulated accidents that release radioactivity into the environment. This report presents estimates of the consequences and uncertainties given that the source term is released into the environment. 10 refs., 6 tabs.

Fukushima Daiichi Radionuclide Inventories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Jankovsky, Zachary Kyle

Radionuclide inventories are generated to permit detailed analyses of the Fukushima Daiichi meltdowns. This is necessary information for severe accident calculations, dose calculations, and source term and consequence analyses. Inventories are calculated using SCALE6 and compared to values predicted by international researchers supporting the OECD/NEA's Benchmark Study on the Accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF). Both sets of inventory information are acceptable for best-estimate analyses of the Fukushima reactors. Consistent nuclear information for severe accident codes, including radionuclide class masses and core decay powers, are also derived from the SCALE6 analyses. Key nuclide activity ratios are calculated asmore » functions of burnup and nuclear data in order to explore the utility for nuclear forensics and support future decommissioning efforts.« less

Several aspects of descriptive epidemiology of hematological malignancies in adult population of Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation after Chornobyl accident.

PubMed

Guslitser, N; Zavelevich, M P; Koval, S V; Gluzman, D F

2016-12-01

Chornobyl impact on the health of adult population in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation was a subject of several studies. However, the studies of the effects of Chornobyl on leukemia in adult populations in post-Soviet countries are scarce and the results are contradictory up to present. The results of the epidemiological studies of the oncohematological consequences of Chornobyl accident are briefly reviewed with particular focus on pre-Chornobyl and post-Chornobyl trends in leukemia incidence in Ukraine, Belarus and Russian Federation as well as in small territories of these countries with various levels of radionuclide contamination. This article is a part of a Special Issue entitled "The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident: Thirty Years After".

Lessons Learned in Protection of the Public for the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.

PubMed

Callen, Jessica; Homma, Toshimitsu

2017-06-01

What insights can the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant provide in the reality of decision making on actions to protect the public during a severe reactor and spent fuel pool emergency? In order to answer this question, and with the goal of limiting the consequences of any future emergencies at a nuclear power plant due to severe conditions, this paper presents the main actions taken in response to the emergency in the form of a timeline. The focus of this paper is those insights concerning the progression of an accident due to severe conditions at a light water reactor nuclear power plant that must be understood in order to protect the public.

The long-term impact of a man-made disaster: An examination of a small town in the aftermath of the Three Mile Island Nuclear Reactor Accident.

PubMed

Goldsteen, R; Schorr, J K

1982-03-01

This paper explores the long-term effects of a nuclear accident on residents' perceptions of their physical and mental health, their trust of public officials, and their attitudes toward the future risks of nuclear power generation In their community. We find that in the period after the accident at Three Mile Island that there are constant or Increasing levels of distress reported by community residents. We conclude that the effects of a technological disaster may often be more enduring than those natural disaster and that greater research efforts should be made to Investigate the long-term consequences of man-made catastrophies of all types.

Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

PubMed

Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

2010-11-01

Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of occupational and consumer safety, are exemplified and discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

PubMed

Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

2006-09-01

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

Aircraft Loss of Control Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Steven R.

2010-01-01

Loss of control has become the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding large numbers of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, NASA's Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. For each causal factor that was linked to loss of control, the team solicited ideas about what solutions are required and future research efforts that could potentially help avoid their occurrence or mitigate their consequences when they occurred in flight.

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

PubMed

Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

2012-09-01

Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination.

The role of PRA in the safety assessment of VVER Nuclear Power Plants in Ukraine.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kot, C.

1999-05-10

Ukraine operates thirteen (13) Soviet-designed pressurized water reactors, VVERS. All Ukrainian plants are currently operating with annually renewable permits until they update their safety analysis reports (SARs), in accordance with new SAR content requirements issued in September 1995, by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority and the Government Nuclear Power Coordinating Committee of Ukraine. The requirements are in three major areas: design basis accident (DBA) analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), and beyond design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. The last two requirements, on PRA and BDBA, are new, and the DBA requirements are an expanded version of the older SAR requirements. The US Departmentmore » of Energy (USDOE), as part of its Soviet-Designed Reactor Safety activities, is providing assistance and technology transfer to Ukraine to support their nuclear power plants (NPPs) in developing a Western-type technical basis for the new SARs. USDOE sponsored In-Depth Safety Assessments (ISAs) are in progress at three pilot nuclear reactor units in Ukraine, South Ukraine Unit 1, Zaporizhzhya Unit 5, and Rivne Unit 1, and a follow-on study has been initiated at Khmenytskyy Unit 1. The ISA projects encompass most areas of plant safety evaluation, but the initial emphasis is on performing a detailed, plant-specific Level 1 Internal Events PRA. This allows the early definition of the plant risk profile, the identification of risk significant accident sequences and plant vulnerabilities and provides guidance for the remainder of the safety assessments.« less

A quantitative model of optimal data selection in Wason's selection task.

PubMed

Hattori, Masasi

2002-10-01

The optimal data selection model proposed by Oaksford and Chater (1994) successfully formalized Wason's selection task (Wason, 1966). The model, however, involved some questionable assumptions and was also not sufficient as a model of the task because it could not provide quantitative predictions of the card selection frequencies. In this paper, the model was revised to provide quantitative fits to the data. The model can predict the selection frequencies of cards based on a selection tendency function (STF), or conversely, it enables the estimation of subjective probabilities from data. Past experimental data were first re-analysed based on the model. In Experiment 1, the superiority of the revised model was shown. However, when the relationship between antecedent and consequent was forced to deviate from the biconditional form, the model was not supported. In Experiment 2, it was shown that sufficient emphasis on probabilistic information can affect participants' performance. A detailed experimental method to sort participants by probabilistic strategies was introduced. Here, the model was supported by a subgroup of participants who used the probabilistic strategy. Finally, the results were discussed from the viewpoint of adaptive rationality.

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W., Dr.

1991-01-01

The use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled with plutonium-238 dioxide on the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission implies some level of risk due to potential accidents. This paper describes the method used to quantify risks in the Ulysses mission Final Safety Analysis Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy. The starting point for the analysis described herein is following input of source term probability distributions from the General Electric Company. A Monte Carlo technique is used to develop probability distributions of radiological consequences for a range of accident scenarios thoughout the mission. Factors affecting radiological consequences are identified, the probability distribution of the effect of each factor determined, and the functional relationship among all the factors established. The probability distributions of all the factor effects are then combined using a Monte Carlo technique. The results of the analysis are presented in terms of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDF) by mission sub-phase, phase, and the overall mission. The CCDFs show the total probability that consequences (calculated health effects) would be equal to or greater than a given value.

An novel identification method of the environmental risk sources for surface water pollution accidents in chemical industrial parks.

PubMed

Peng, Jianfeng; Song, Yonghui; Yuan, Peng; Xiao, Shuhu; Han, Lu

2013-07-01

The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgent demand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extent depending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of the whole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causing water pollution accidents is presented. The newly developed approach, by analyzing and stimulating the whole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses, were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park (CIP) along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China, was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that there were four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plant would lead to the most serious impact on the surrounding water environment. This potential accident would severely damage the ecosystem up to 3.8 km downstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over a distance stretching to 73.7 km downstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.

Major workplace related accidents in Singapore: A major trauma centre's experience.

PubMed

Ng, Zhi Xu; Teo, Li Tserng; Go, Karen T S; Yeo, Yen Teng; Chiu, Ming Terk

2010-12-01

Major workplace related accidents pose a significant healthcare resource challenge in Singapore. Our study looks at the epidemiology of patients who were admitted for workplace related accidents, in a single institution, with an Injury Severity Score of >9. There were 196 cases of major workplace related accidents admitted between January 2006 and December 2007. The median age of patients admitted was 37 years with a large percentage being males (95.4%) and non-residents (57.1%). The most common ethnic group was Chinese (53.1%) followed by Indians (23.5%). The most common mechanism of injury was fall from height (66.3%) followed by injuries as a result of falling objects at work (21.9%). The percentage of patients who required surgical intervention was 69.9%. Patients admitted for major workplace related accidents had a median length of stay of 5 days in the hospital, a median length of 24 days of medical leave (ML), certifying them unfit for duty and the average cost of stay for each patient was S$11,000. We have a better understanding of the epidemiology and socio-economic impact of workplace related accidents through this study. Workplace related accidents result in significant number of man-days lost from work and monetary cost to employers, medical insurance and the hospital. With an improved understanding, we propose methods to prevent and reduce such accidents in future. A direct consequence of which will be the possible reduction of hospitalisation costs and better allocation of healthcare resources in the future.

Transactional problem content in cost discounting: parallel effects for probability and delay.

PubMed

Jones, Stephen; Oaksford, Mike

2011-05-01

Four experiments investigated the effects of transactional content on temporal and probabilistic discounting of costs. Kusev, van Schaik, Ayton, Dent, and Chater (2009) have shown that content other than gambles can alter decision-making behavior even when associated value and probabilities are held constant. Transactions were hypothesized to lead to similar effects because the cost to a purchaser always has a linked gain, the purchased commodity. Gain amount has opposite effects on delay and probabilistic discounting (e.g., Benzion, Rapoport, & Yagil, 1989; Green, Myerson, & Ostaszewski, 1999), a finding that is not consistent with descriptive decision theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Loewenstein & Prelec, 1992). However, little or no effect on discounting has been observed for losses or costs. Experiment 1, using transactions, showed parallel effects for temporal and probabilistic discounting: Smaller amounts were discounted more than large amounts. As the cost rises, people value the commodity more, and they consequently discount less. Experiment 2 ruled out a possible methodological cause for this effect. Experiment 3 replicated Experiment 1. Experiment 4, using gambles, showed no effect for temporal discounting, because of the absence of the linked gain, but the same effect for probabilistic discounting, because prospects implicitly introduce a linked gain (Green et al., 1999; Prelec & Loewenstein, 1991). As found by Kusev et al. (2009), these findings are not consistent with decision theory and suggest closer attention should be paid to the effects of content on decision making.

[Fatal occupational accidents in Lombardy].

PubMed

Pianosi, G

1995-01-01

All fatal occupational accidents compensated in Lombardy from 1984 to 1989 were analyzed (1259 cases): significant differences between geographical distribution of fatal occupational accidents and workers were observed. Males accounted for about 95% of fatalities; an excess of cases was shown in both young and elderly workers. Death was the consequence of injuries involving most frequently the head, thorax and spinal cord. An excess of fatalities was observed in agriculture and, at a lower level, in manufacturing industries; small enterprises were involved in approximately 25% of fatalities occurring in the manufacturing industries and services. Employers were the victims of fatal accidents in 50% of cases in agriculture and in 70% of cases in craft industries. Construction, agriculture and transport accounted for about 50% of all fatalities. About 50% of fatal occupational accidents were related to vehicle use: the victim was the driver in the majority of cases, sometimes the victim was run over by a vehicle or fell from a vehicle. The results agree with some previous observations (e.g.: sex and age distribution; construction, agriculture and transport as working activities at high accident risk); but some original observations have emerged, in particular about the frequency of employers as victims and the role of vehicles in the genesis of fatal occupational accidents. If further studies confirm these latter observations, important developments could follow in preventive action design and implementation.

Prognosis of outcome in adult survivors of road accidents in France: one-year follow-Up in the ESPARR cohort.

PubMed

Nhac-Vu, Hoang-Thy; Hours, Martine; Chossegros, Laetitia; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Helene; Martin, Jean-Louis; Mazaux, Jean-Michel; Laumon, Bernard

2014-01-01

The consequences of road crashes are various, and few studies have dealt with the multidimensionality of outcomes. The aim of the present study was to assess the multidimensional nature of outcomes one year after a crash and to determine predictive factors that could help in adapting medical and social care to prevent such consequences to improve road crash victims' prognosis. The study population was the 886 respondents to the one-year follow-up from the ESPARR (Etude et Suivi d'une Population d'Accidentés de la Route du Rhône) cohort, aged ≥ 16 years; the analysis was carried out only on the 616 subjects who fully completed a self-report questionnaire on health, social, emotional, and financial status one year after a crash. Multiple correspondence analysis and hierarchical clustering was implemented to produce homogeneous groups according to differences in outcome. Groups were compared using the World Health Organization Quality of Life Assessment (WHOQOL-BREF, a standard instrument of quality of life, assessing physical health, psychological health, social relationships, and environment) and the Injury Impairment Scale (IIS), a tool to predict road crash sequelae. Baseline predictive factors for group attribution were analyzed by weighted multinomial logistic regression models. Three hundred seventeen of the 616 subjects (60.1%) were men. Mean age was 36.9 years (SD = 16.5). Five victim groups were identified in terms of consequences at one year: one group (206 subjects, 33.4%) with few problems, one with essentially physical sequelae, one with problems that were essentially both physical and social, and 2 groups with a wider range of problems (one including psychological problems but fewer environmental problems; the last one reported negative physical, psychological, social, and environmental impact; notably, all had post-concussion syndrome [PCS]). There were significant differences between groups in terms of family status, injury severity, and certain types of injury (thorax, spine, lower limbs). Comparison on the WHOQOL-BREF confirmed that groups reporting more adverse outcomes had a lower quality of life. Description of the 5 groups by IIS indicators showed that IIS underestimated physical consequences one year after the crash. In addition to the known prognostic factors such as age, initial injury severity, and injury type, socioeconomic fragility and having a relative involved in the accident emerged as predictive of poor outcome at one year. One year after the crash, victims may still be experiencing multiple problems in terms of not only physical health but also of mental health, social life, and environment. Poor outcome may be predicted from both accident-related factors and socioeconomic fragility. Our results are useful in catching the attention of both clinicians and the public administration regarding victims at risk of suffering from important consequences after an accident. If those suffering head injuries are recognized, it would be very important to better consider and treat posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or PCS. Furthermore, subjects from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, with or without lower limb injuries, have numerous difficulties after an accident, notably for returning to work. An objective would be to provide them with more specific support. Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the publisher's online edition of Traffic Injury Prevention to view the supplemental file.

RMP Guidance for Warehouses - Table of Contents

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This Risk Management Program (40 CFR Part 68) Guidance is organized into chapters, each covering a topic such as applicability of the rule, requirements for the five-year accident history and offsite consequence analysis, and emergency response.

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

49 CFR 193.2013 - Incorporation by reference.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Thermal Radiation Model for LNG Fires (March 2004) § 193.2057(a). (2) GTI-04/0049 (April 2004) “LNG Vapor... FEM3A for LNG Accident Consequence Analyses” (April 1997) § 193.2059. F. National Fire Protection...

Evaluation of the Consequences of a Cistern Truck Accident While Transporting Dangerous Substances through a Tunnel.

PubMed

Malecha, Ziemowit M; Poliski, Jarosaw; Chorowski, Maciej

2017-12-01

The transportation of dangerous substances by truck carriers harbors important safety issues in both road and mine tunnels. Even though traffic conditions in road and mine tunnels are different, the potential geometric and hydrodynamic similarities can lead to similar effects from the uncontrolled leakage of the dangerous material. This work was motivated by the design study of the LAGUNA-LBNO (Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics and Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillations) project. The considered neutrino detector requires a huge amount of liquid argon, which must be transported down the tunnel. The present work focuses on the estimation of the most credible incident and the resulting consequences in the case of a truck accident in the tunnel. The approach and tools used in the present work are generic and can be adapted to other similar situations. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

A primer on criticality safety

DOE PAGES

Costa, David A.; Cournoyer, Michael E.; Merhege, James F.; ...

2017-05-01

Criticality is the state of a nuclear chain reacting medium when the chain reaction is just self-sustaining (or critical). Criticality is dependent on nine interrelated parameters. Moreover, we design criticality safety controls in order to constrain these parameters to minimize fissions and maximize neutron leakage and absorption in other materials, which makes criticality more difficult or impossible to achieve. We present the consequences of criticality accidents are discussed, the nine interrelated parameters that combine to affect criticality are described, and criticality safety controls used to minimize the likelihood of a criticality accident are presented.

Emergency care centers--an efficient method for mitigation of consequences after a dirty bomb attack.

PubMed

Miska, Horst

2012-08-01

For emergency preparedness and response with respect to nuclear power plant accidents, the concept of Emergency Care Centers has been developed in Germany. This setup aims at monitoring contamination, to decontaminate if needed, assess the dose, and perform an initial medical evaluation of people who might have been affected by the accident. The concept has been tested in many exercises. In response to a terrorist attack involving a dirty bomb, this concept may prove useful for attending contaminated people who are not severely injured.

[Radiological estimation of the protective measures used in agricultural complex of Belarus Republic in 2000-2005 (20 years after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP)].

PubMed

Podoliak, A G; Bogdevich, I M; Ageets, V Iu; Timofeev, S F

2007-01-01

The radiological estimation of the basic agrochemistry measures spent for the agriculture of the Republic of Belarus in 2000-2005 is given. Laws of behavior radionuclides 137Cs and 90Sr in agrosystems are considered depending on used protective a measures (countermeasures) and the primary goals on liquidation of consequences in sphere of agrarian and industrial complex which are necessary for solving during the remote period after accident ChNNP (in 2006-2010) are studied.

A Figure of Merit: Quantifying the Probability of a Nuclear Reactor Accident.

PubMed

Wellock, Thomas R

In recent decades, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has become an essential tool in risk analysis and management in many industries and government agencies. The origins of PRA date to the 1975 publication of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Reactor Safety Study led by MIT professor Norman Rasmussen. The "Rasmussen Report" inspired considerable political and scholarly disputes over the motives behind it and the value of its methods and numerical estimates of risk. The Report's controversies have overshadowed the deeper technical origins of risk assessment. Nuclear experts had long sought to express risk in a "figure of merit" to verify the safety of weapons and, later, civilian reactors. By the 1970s, technical advances in PRA gave the methodology the potential to serve political ends, too. The Report, it was hoped, would prove nuclear power's safety to a growing chorus of critics. Subsequent attacks on the Report's methods and numerical estimates damaged the NRC's credibility. PRA's fortunes revived when the 1979 Three Mile Island accident demonstrated PRA's potential for improving the safety of nuclear power and other technical systems. Nevertheless, the Report's controversies endure in mistrust of PRA and its experts.

Interim Reliability Evaluation Program: analysis of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant. Main report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

1982-07-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was made of the Browns Ferry, Unit 1, nuclear plant as part of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP). Specific goals of the study were to identify the dominant contributors to core melt, develop a foundation for more extensive use of PRA methods, expand the cadre of experienced PRA practitioners, and apply procedures for extension of IREP analyses to other domestic light water reactors. Event tree and fault tree analyses were used to estimate the frequency of accident sequences initiated by transients and loss of coolant accidents. External events such as floods,more » fires, earthquakes, and sabotage were beyond the scope of this study and were, therefore, excluded. From these sequences, the dominant contributors to probable core melt frequency were chosen. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed on these sequences to better understand the limitations associated with the estimated sequence frequencies. Dominant sequences were grouped according to common containment failure modes and corresponding release categories on the basis of comparison with analyses of similar designs rather than on the basis of detailed plant-specific calculations.« less

A comparison of geospatially modeled fire behavior and fire management utility of three data sources in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

LaWen T. Hollingsworth; Laurie L. Kurth; Bernard R. Parresol; Roger D. Ottmar; Susan J. Prichard

2012-01-01

Landscape-scale fire behavior analyses are important to inform decisions on resource management projects that meet land management objectives and protect values from adverse consequences of fire. Deterministic and probabilistic geospatial fire behavior analyses are conducted with various modeling systems including FARSITE, FlamMap, FSPro, and Large Fire Simulation...

Analytical measurements of fission products during a severe nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doizi, D.; Reymond la Ruinaz, S.; Haykal, I.; Manceron, L.; Perrin, A.; Boudon, V.; Vander Auwera, J.; tchana, F. Kwabia; Faye, M.

2018-01-01

The Fukushima accident emphasized the fact that ways to monitor in real time the evolution of a nuclear reactor during a severe accident remain to be developed. No fission products were monitored during twelve days; only dose rates were measured, which is not sufficient to carry out an online diagnosis of the event. The first measurements were announced with little reliability for low volatile fission products. In order to improve the safety of nuclear plants and minimize the industrial, ecological and health consequences of a severe accident, it is necessary to develop new reliable measurement systems, operating at the earliest and closest to the emission source of fission products. Through the French program ANR « Projet d'Investissement d'Avenir », the aim of the DECA-PF project (diagnosis of core degradation from fission products measurements) is to monitor in real time the release of the major fission products (krypton, xenon, gaseous forms of iodine and ruthenium) outside the nuclear reactor containment. These products are released at different times during a nuclear accident and at different states of the nuclear core degradation. Thus, monitoring these fission products gives information on the situation inside the containment and helps to apply the Severe Accident Management procedures. Analytical techniques have been proposed and evaluated. The results are discussed here.

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

2015-01-01

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

2016-01-01

The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

PubMed

Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

2011-07-01

The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. Copyright © 2011 SETAC.

Radioecological indexes of fallout measurements from the Fukushima nuclear accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manolopoulou, Metaxia; Stoulos, Stylianos; Ioannidou, Alexandra; Vagena, Eleni

2014-05-01

Fallout from the Fukushima nuclear accident has been monitored for about 1 month in Thessaloniki, Northern Greece. Three different radionuclides, one short-lived, one relatively long-lived and one long- lived fission product were identified in air, grass and milk samples. The 131I, 137Cs and 134Cs activity concentrations in air reached 497, 145 and 126 μBqm-3, respectively on 4 April, 2011. These radionuclides are of particular concern regarding their transfer from the environment to population through the ingestion pathways for the assessment of the Fukushima accident consequences. Radioecological indexes (eco-indexes) of fallout measurements in the air-grass-cow-milk-man pathway for 131I were determined, as they are related to radiological impact of the Fukushima derived radionuclides on the public and environment.

[The prevention in Italian workers' compensation authority protection: back to the future].

PubMed

Miccio, A; Ossicini, A

2010-01-01

Workers'protection is now more than ever an integrated protection system-as a result also of recent innovative provisions of law-ranging from prevention on the workplace to health and economic benefits, medical treatment, rehabilitation and reintegration in the social and working life of victims of physical damage consequent to a work related accident or professional disease. With a view to contributing to the reduction of accidents, INAIL has implemented a number of important tools to continually monitor employment and accident trends, it provides small and medium size enterprises with training and advice in the field of prevention and funds companies that decide to invest in the improvement of safety. Now more than ever INAIL after the law May 2010, n. 78 is the Italian prevention agency.

Radiation monitoring systems as a tool for assessment of accidental releases at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shershakov, Vjacheslav; Bulgakov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

The experience gained during mitigation of the consequences of the accidents at the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPPs has shown that what makes different the decision-making in case of nuclear accidents is that the greatest benefit from decision-making can be achieved in the early phase of an accident. Support to such process can be provided only by a real-time decision-making support system. In case of a nuclear accident the analysis of the situation and decision-making is not feasible without an operational radiation monitoring system, international data exchange and automated data processing, and the use of computerized decision-making support systems. With this in mind, in the framework of different international programs on the Chernobyl-related issues numerous projects were undertaken to study and develop a set of methods, algorithms and programs providing effective support to emergency response decision-making, starting from accident occurrence to decision-making regarding countermeasures to mitigate effects of radioactive contamination of the environment. The presentation focuses results of the analysis of radiation monitoring data and, on this basis, refining or, for many short-lived radionuclides, reconstructing the source term, modeling dispersion of radioactivity in the environment and assessing its impacts. The obtained results allowed adding and refining the existing estimates and in some cases reconstructing doses for the public on the territories contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The activities were implemented in two stages. In the first stage, several scenarios for dispersion of Chernobyl-related radioactivity were developed. For each scenario cesium-137 dispersion was estimated and these estimates were compared with measurement data. In the second stage, the scenario which showed the best agreement of calculations and measurements was used for modeling the dispersion of iodine-131and other short-lived radionuclides. The described approach was used for assessing the consequences at the Fukushima NPP. These results are also provided in the presentation. References 1. Kelly G.N., Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M.. Decision Support for Off-Site Emergency Preparedness in Europe. Radiation Protection Dosimetry, Vol. 64 Nos. 1-2, 1996, pp. 129-142. 2. Ehrhardt J., Shershakov V.M. Real-time on-line decision support systems (RODOS) for off-site emergency management following a nuclear accident. EUR 16533, 1996 3. Kelly G.N., Shershakov V.M. (Editors). Environmental contamination, radiation doses and health consequences after the ?hernobyl accident. Radiation Protection Dosimetry. Special Commemorative Issue.Vol. 64, 1996 4. Shershakov V.M. Computer information technology for support of radiation monitoring problems. OECD Proceedings of an International Workshop «Nuclear Emergency Data Management», Zurich, Switzerland, 1998, pp. 377-388 5. Pitkevich V.A., Duba V.V., Ivanov V.K., Tsyb A.F., Shershakov V.M., Golubenkov A.V., Borodin R.V., V.A., Kosykh V.S. Reconstruction of External Dose to the Inhabitants Living in the Contaminated Territory of Russia by the Results of the Accident at the Chernobyl NPP. Health Phys., Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 54-68, 1995. 6. Shershakov V., Fesenko S., Kryshev I., Semioshkina T. Decision-Aiding Tools for Remediation Strategies. In: Radioactivity in the Environment, Volume 14, Remediation of Contaminated Environments, 2009, pp 41- 120, Elsevier Ltd.

Contamination and radiation exposure in central Europe after the Chernobyl accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bayer, A.; Mueck, K.; Loosli, H.H.

1996-06-01

Ten years ago, on 26 April 1986, as a consequence of an accident in Unit 4 of the Chernobyl-NPP, a large quantity of radioactive material was released into the atmosphere for some days. This material was spread over wide areas of Europe. Due to variable weather conditions the activity concentrations in air varied considerably in different regions. Also as a consequence of large variations in precipitation intensity-particularly in the regions of Southeastern Germany, Austria and Southern Switzerland-up to 100 kBq m{sup -2} {sup 137}Cs were deposited on the soil. Due to fallout, washout, and/or rainout, a range of foodstuffs weremore » contaminated, and foodstuffs directly exposed to the fallout [vegetables and green fodder (grass)] showed the highest contamination levels. Consequently, milk also showed a significantly increased activity concentration, in particular of {sup 131}I. In the following years contamination in all kinds of foodstuffs decreased, but elevated contamination levels in special pathways like venison and mushrooms are still observed to date. This contamination resulted in additional exposure, mainly due to external radiation from ground and from consumption of contaminated food. The radiation exposure in the most contaminated areas was calculated on the basis of model assumptions and was found to be about 1 mSv during the first year after the accident. Using this model, the ingestion pathway was overestimated by at least a factor of two. This additional exposure decreased and is now less than 1 % on average; in the most contaminated areas, this is a few percent of the average natural radiation exposure.« less

Alloy Selection for Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding in Commercial Light Water Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebak, Raul B.

2015-12-01

As a consequence of the March 2011 events at the Fukushima site, the U.S. congress asked the Department of Energy (DOE) to concentrate efforts on the development of nuclear fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. The new fuels had to maintain or improve the performance of current UO2-zirconium alloy rods during normal operation conditions and tolerate the loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period than the current system. DOE is funding cost-shared research to investigate the behavior of advanced steels both under normal operation conditions in high-temperature water [ e.g., 561 K (288 °C)] and under accident conditions for reaction with superheated steam. Current results show that, under accident conditions, the advanced ferritic steels (1) have orders of magnitude lower reactivity with steam, (2) would generate less hydrogen and heat than the current zirconium alloys, (3) are resistant to stress corrosion cracking under normal operation conditions, and (4) have low general corrosion in water at 561 K (288 °C).

Internality and externality correlates of potential drivers among high school pupils in Holon (Israel).

PubMed

Brook, U; Weitzman, A

1994-01-01

Car accidents are the leading causes of death and handicap among adolescents and young adults. Thirty-six pupils from the last class in high school (in the age group 17-18 years) have attended lectures with explanations concerning the consequences of car accidents by physicians of rehabilitation centers. They also were taken on a one-day visit to such a center. They have seen and talked with persons who were severely handicapped because of car accidents, and have followed the physical therapists and occupational healing therapists throughout their work day. The pupils completed the Rotter and Montag Internality-Externality Scale questionnaire before and after the meeting and staging with the handicaps, and the results showed an increase of 10.28% in their Internal focus of control. The conclusion is that confrontation of young future drivers with handicaps as a result of car accidents in rehabilitation centers should be a routine and regular habit during the last classes of high school.

Vehicle-pedestrian collisions - Aspects regarding pedestrian kinematics, dynamics and biomechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrescu, L.; Petrescu, Al

2017-10-01

Vehicle-pedestrian collisions result in a substantial number of pedestrian fatalities and injuries worldwide. Concern continues to limit and reduce the tragic consequences suffered by pedestrians involved in road accidents, caused the vehicle-pedestrian accident reconstruction become an important area and distinctly outlined in the reconstruction of road incidents involving vehicle. This paper analyzes the dynamics of vehicle-pedestrian impact influence over pedestrian biomechanics, which is directly connected with the severity of injury after contact with the vehicle profile and with the place where the pedestrian is projected. The main goal of this paper is to highlight some features of reconstruction of road accidents involving pedestrian, looking at the kinematics and dynamics of pedestrian impact for a better understanding of the phenomena that occur. The study on the dynamics and biomechanics of the pedestrian hit by the vehicle is useful in order to understand how the injuries, including the lethal ones, are generated in the collision, what is essential in road accidents reconstruction.

Thermal-hydraulic analysis of N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Low, J.O.; Schmitt, B.E.

1988-02-01

A series of bounding (worst-case) calculations were performed using a detailed hydrodynamic RELAP5 model of the N Reactor graphite and shield cooling system (GSCS). These calculations were specifically aimed to answer issues raised by the Westinghouse Independent Safety Review (WISR) committee. These questions address the operability of the GSCS during a worst-case degraded-core accident that requires the GDCS to mitigate the consequences of the accident. An accident scenario previously developed was designed as the hydrogen-mitigation design-basis accident (HMDBA). Previous HMDBA heat transfer analysis,, using the TRUMP-BD code, was used to define the thermal boundary conditions that the GSDS may bemore » exposed to. These TRUMP/HMDBA analysis results were used to define the bounding operating conditions of the GSCS during the course of an HMDBA transient. Nominal and degraded GSCS scenarios were investigated using RELAP5 within or at the bounds of the HMDBA transient. 10 refs., 42 figs., 10 tabs.« less

The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

PubMed

Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

2010-10-15

This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating the multi-causal and complex nature of the accident causal influence of construction project features.

PubMed

Manu, Patrick A; Ankrah, Nii A; Proverbs, David G; Suresh, Subashini

2012-09-01

Construction project features (CPFs) are organisational, physical and operational attributes that characterise construction projects. Although previous studies have examined the accident causal influence of CPFs, the multi-causal attribute of this causal phenomenon still remain elusive and thus requires further investigation. Aiming to shed light on this facet of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs, this study examines relevant literature and crystallises the attained insight of the multi-causal attribute by a graphical model which is subsequently operationalised by a derived mathematical risk expression that offers a systematic approach for evaluating the potential of CPFs to cause harm and consequently their health and safety (H&S) risk implications. The graphical model and the risk expression put forth by the study thus advance current understanding of the accident causal phenomenon of CPFs and they present an opportunity for project participants to manage the H&S risk associated with CPFs from the early stages of project procurement. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[The SILENE reactor: a tool adapted for applied study of moderate and large doses].

PubMed

Verrey, B; Leo, Y; Fouillaud, P

2002-07-01

Designed in 1974 to study the phenomenology and consequences of a critical accident, the SILENE experimental reactor, an intense source of mixed neutron and gamma radiation, is also suited to radiobiological studies.

Fast probabilistic file fingerprinting for big data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Biological data acquisition is raising new challenges, both in data analysis and handling. Not only is it proving hard to analyze the data at the rate it is generated today, but simply reading and transferring data files can be prohibitively slow due to their size. This primarily concerns logistics within and between data centers, but is also important for workstation users in the analysis phase. Common usage patterns, such as comparing and transferring files, are proving computationally expensive and are tying down shared resources. Results We present an efficient method for calculating file uniqueness for large scientific data files, that takes less computational effort than existing techniques. This method, called Probabilistic Fast File Fingerprinting (PFFF), exploits the variation present in biological data and computes file fingerprints by sampling randomly from the file instead of reading it in full. Consequently, it has a flat performance characteristic, correlated with data variation rather than file size. We demonstrate that probabilistic fingerprinting can be as reliable as existing hashing techniques, with provably negligible risk of collisions. We measure the performance of the algorithm on a number of data storage and access technologies, identifying its strengths as well as limitations. Conclusions Probabilistic fingerprinting may significantly reduce the use of computational resources when comparing very large files. Utilisation of probabilistic fingerprinting techniques can increase the speed of common file-related workflows, both in the data center and for workbench analysis. The implementation of the algorithm is available as an open-source tool named pfff, as a command-line tool as well as a C library. The tool can be downloaded from http://biit.cs.ut.ee/pfff. PMID:23445565

Perceptual-motor skill learning in Gilles de la Tourette syndrome. Evidence for multiple procedural learning and memory systems.

PubMed

Marsh, Rachel; Alexander, Gerianne M; Packard, Mark G; Zhu, Hongtu; Peterson, Bradley S

2005-01-01

Procedural learning and memory systems likely comprise several skills that are differentially affected by various illnesses of the central nervous system, suggesting their relative functional independence and reliance on differing neural circuits. Gilles de la Tourette syndrome (GTS) is a movement disorder that involves disturbances in the structure and function of the striatum and related circuitry. Recent studies suggest that patients with GTS are impaired in performance of a probabilistic classification task that putatively involves the acquisition of stimulus-response (S-R)-based habits. Assessing the learning of perceptual-motor skills and probabilistic classification in the same samples of GTS and healthy control subjects may help to determine whether these various forms of procedural (habit) learning rely on the same or differing neuroanatomical substrates and whether those substrates are differentially affected in persons with GTS. Therefore, we assessed perceptual-motor skill learning using the pursuit-rotor and mirror tracing tasks in 50 patients with GTS and 55 control subjects who had previously been compared at learning a task of probabilistic classifications. The GTS subjects did not differ from the control subjects in performance of either the pursuit rotor or mirror-tracing tasks, although they were significantly impaired in the acquisition of a probabilistic classification task. In addition, learning on the perceptual-motor tasks was not correlated with habit learning on the classification task in either the GTS or healthy control subjects. These findings suggest that the differing forms of procedural learning are dissociable both functionally and neuroanatomically. The specific deficits in the probabilistic classification form of habit learning in persons with GTS are likely to be a consequence of disturbances in specific corticostriatal circuits, but not the same circuits that subserve the perceptual-motor form of habit learning.

A meta-analytic review of two modes of learning and the description-experience gap.

PubMed

Wulff, Dirk U; Mergenthaler-Canseco, Max; Hertwig, Ralph

2018-02-01

People can learn about the probabilistic consequences of their actions in two ways: One is by consulting descriptions of an action's consequences and probabilities (e.g., reading up on a medication's side effects). The other is by personally experiencing the probabilistic consequences of an action (e.g., beta testing software). In principle, people taking each route can reach analogous states of knowledge and consequently make analogous decisions. In the last dozen years, however, research has demonstrated systematic discrepancies between description- and experienced-based choices. This description-experience gap has been attributed to factors including reliance on a small set of experience, the impact of recency, and different weighting of probability information in the two decision types. In this meta-analysis focusing on studies using the sampling paradigm of decisions from experience, we evaluated these and other determinants of the decision-experience gap by reference to more than 70,000 choices made by more than 6,000 participants. We found, first, a robust description-experience gap but also a key moderator, namely, problem structure. Second, the largest determinant of the gap was reliance on small samples and the associated sampling error: free to terminate search, individuals explored too little to experience all possible outcomes. Third, the gap persisted when sampling error was basically eliminated, suggesting other determinants. Fourth, the occurrence of recency was contingent on decision makers' autonomy to terminate search, consistent with the notion of optional stopping. Finally, we found indications of different probability weighting in decisions from experience versus decisions from description when the problem structure involved a risky and a safe option. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Occupational accidents in artisanal mining in Katanga, D.R.C.

PubMed

Elenge, Myriam; Leveque, Alain; De Brouwer, Christophe

2013-04-01

This study focuses on accidents in artisanal mining, to support policies improving miners' employability. Based on a questionnaire administered in November 2009 to a sample of 180 miners from the artisanal mining of LUPOTO, in the Province of Katanga, we explored significant trends between the accidents and their consequences and behavioral or sociological variables. During the 12 months preceding the study, 392 accidents occurred, affecting 72.2% of miners. Tools handling represents 51.5%, of the accidents' causes, followed by handling heavy loads (32.9%). Factors such as age, seniority or apprenticeship did not generate significant differences. Contusions were the most common injuries (50.2%), followed by wounds (44.4%). These injuries were located in upper limbs (50.5%) and in lower limbs (29.3%). 80.5% of miners were cared for by their colleagues and 50% of them could not work for more than 3 days. Physical sequelae were reported by 19% of the injured miners. Many surveys related to accidents in the area of artisanal mining report such high frequency. The unsuitability of tools to jobs to be done is usually raised as one of the major causes of accidents. The lack of differentiation of the tasks carried out in relation to age is another factor explaining the lack of protective effect of seniority as it minimizes the contribution of experience in the worker's safety. The apprenticeship reported is inadequate; it is rather a learning by doing than anything else. That is why it lacks protective effect. Low income combined with precariousness of artisanal mining are likely to explain the low level of work stoppages. Tools improvement associated with adequate training seem to be the basis of accident prevention. Availability of suitable medical care should improve artisanal miners' recovery after accidents.

Lessons from Fukushima for Improving the Safety of Nuclear Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyman, Edwin

2012-02-01

The March 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has revealed serious vulnerabilities in the design, operation and regulation of nuclear power plants. While some aspects of the accident were plant- and site-specific, others have implications that are broadly applicable to the current generation of nuclear plants in operation around the world. Although many of the details of the accident progression and public health consequences are still unclear, there are a number of lessons that can already be drawn. The accident demonstrated the need at nuclear plants for robust, highly reliable backup power sources capable of functioning for many days in the event of a complete loss of primary off-site and on-site electrical power. It highlighted the importance of detailed planning for severe accident management that realistically evaluates the capabilities of personnel to carry out mitigation operations under extremely hazardous conditions. It showed how emergency plans rooted in the assumption that only one reactor at a multi-unit site would be likely to experience a crisis fail miserably in the event of an accident affecting multiple reactor units simultaneously. It revealed that alternate water injection following a severe accident could be needed for weeks or months, generating large volumes of contaminated water that must be contained. And it reinforced the grim lesson of Chernobyl: that a nuclear reactor accident could lead to widespread radioactive contamination with profound implications for public health, the economy and the environment. While many nations have re-examined their policies regarding nuclear power safety in the months following the accident, it remains to be seen to what extent the world will take the lessons of Fukushima seriously and make meaningful changes in time to avert another, and potentially even worse, nuclear catastrophe.

Ten years after Chernobyl

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, K.

1996-12-31

As was amply demonstrated during the EU/IAEA/WHO Summing-up-Conference in Vienna, Austria, April 8-12, 1996, the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident were, fortunately, not as serious as frequently presented in the media: 28 people died from acute radiation syndrome in 1986, 14 more of possibly radiation-related causes since. Of the <1000 thyroid cancers in children, 90 to 95% are curable. There have so far been no other demonstrable increases in the former Soviet Union, as well as in Western Europe, of leukemias, solid cancers, or genetic defects, nor are any to be expected in the future. Even among the {open_quotes}liquidators{close_quotes}more » with doses {approximately}100 mSv, of the {approximately}150 additional expected leukemias during the 10 yr after the accident, none have been observed. The economical, social, and political consequences, however, both in the former Soviet Union and in Western Europe, have been very substantial. Whole countries developed an hysterical `radiation sickness.` As A. Merkel, the German Minister of Environment and Reactor Safety, who chaired the conference, pointed out, `the radiation sensitivity of societies far exceeds that of individuals.` It is obvious that important groups in Ukraine, Belaurus, and Russia try to blame a large fraction of all economic, social, and health problems during the last decade, which are substantial ({approx} 6 yr less life expectancy, twice the homicides and traffic deaths, increased alcoholism, and so forth), on radiation of the Chernobyl accident in an effort to attract more support. Western scientists refute such claims but admit large non-radiation-related problems caused by the accident.« less

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

2014-01-01

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

HyRAM V1.0 User Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Groth, Katrina M.; Zumwalt, Hannah Ruth; Clark, Andrew Jordan

2016-03-01

Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) is a prototype software toolkit that integrates data and methods relevant to assessing the safety of hydrogen fueling and storage infrastructure. The HyRAM toolkit integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, and characterizing the impact of hydrogen hazards, including thermal effects from jet fires and thermal pressure effects from deflagration. HyRAM version 1.0 incorporates generic probabilities for equipment failures for nine types of components, and probabilistic models for the impact of heat flux on humans and structures, with computationally and experimentally validated models of various aspects of gaseous hydrogen releasemore » and flame physics. This document provides an example of how to use HyRAM to conduct analysis of a fueling facility. This document will guide users through the software and how to enter and edit certain inputs that are specific to the user-defined facility. Description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM is provided in [1]. This User’s Guide is intended to capture the main features of HyRAM version 1.0 (any HyRAM version numbered as 1.0.X.XXX). This user guide was created with HyRAM 1.0.1.798. Due to ongoing software development activities, newer versions of HyRAM may have differences from this guide.« less

A review of the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident: radiation effects on the thyroid and strategies for prevention.

PubMed

Nagataki, Shigenobu; Takamura, Noboru

2014-10-01

This is a summary of the nuclear accident at the Tokyo Electric Power Company Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Stations (FDNPS) on 11 March 2011 to be used as a review of the radiation effects to the thyroid and strategies of prevention. The amount of radioiodine released to the environment following the Fukushima accident was 120 Peta Becquerel, which is approximately one-tenth of that in the Chernobyl accident. Residents near the FDNPS were evacuated within a few days and foodstuffs were controlled within 1 or 2 weeks. Therefore, thyroid radiation doses were less than 100 mSv (intervention levels for stable iodine administration) in the majority of children, including less than 1 year olds, living in the evacuation areas. Because the incidence of childhood thyroid cancer increased in those residing near the site following the Chernobyl accident, thyroid screening of all children (0-18 years old) in the Fukushima Prefecture was started. To date, screening of more than 280 000 children has resulted in the diagnosis of thyroid cancer in 90 children (approximate incidence, 313 per million). Thus, although the dose of radiation was much lower, the incidence of thyroid cancer appears to be much higher than that following the Chernobyl accident. A comparison of the thyroidal consequences following the Fukushima and Chernobyl nuclear reactor accidents is discussed. We also summarize the recent increased incidence in thyroid cancer in the Fukushima area following the accident in relation to increased thyroid ultrasound screening and the use of advanced ultrasound techniques. http://links.lww.com/COE/A8.

Radiological protection issues arising during and after the Fukushima nuclear reactor accident.

PubMed

González, Abel J; Akashi, Makoto; Boice, John D; Chino, Masamichi; Homma, Toshimitsu; Ishigure, Nobuhito; Kai, Michiaki; Kusumi, Shizuyo; Lee, Jai-Ki; Menzel, Hans-Georg; Niwa, Ohtsura; Sakai, Kazuo; Weiss, Wolfgang; Yamashita, Shunichi; Yonekura, Yoshiharu

2013-09-01

Following the Fukushima accident, the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) convened a task group to compile lessons learned from the nuclear reactor accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan, with respect to the ICRP system of radiological protection. In this memorandum the members of the task group express their personal views on issues arising during and after the accident, without explicit endorsement of or approval by the ICRP. While the affected people were largely protected against radiation exposure and no one incurred a lethal dose of radiation (or a dose sufficiently large to cause radiation sickness), many radiological protection questions were raised. The following issues were identified: inferring radiation risks (and the misunderstanding of nominal risk coefficients); attributing radiation effects from low dose exposures; quantifying radiation exposure; assessing the importance of internal exposures; managing emergency crises; protecting rescuers and volunteers; responding with medical aid; justifying necessary but disruptive protective actions; transiting from an emergency to an existing situation; rehabilitating evacuated areas; restricting individual doses of members of the public; caring for infants and children; categorising public exposures due to an accident; considering pregnant women and their foetuses and embryos; monitoring public protection; dealing with 'contamination' of territories, rubble and residues and consumer products; recognising the importance of psychological consequences; and fostering the sharing of information. Relevant ICRP Recommendations were scrutinised, lessons were collected and suggestions were compiled. It was concluded that the radiological protection community has an ethical duty to learn from the lessons of Fukushima and resolve any identified challenges. Before another large accident occurs, it should be ensured that inter alia: radiation risk coefficients of potential health effects are properly interpreted; the limitations of epidemiological studies for attributing radiation effects following low exposures are understood; any confusion on protection quantities and units is resolved; the potential hazard from the intake of radionuclides into the body is elucidated; rescuers and volunteers are protected with an ad hoc system; clear recommendations on crisis management and medical care and on recovery and rehabilitation are available; recommendations on public protection levels (including infant, children and pregnant women and their expected offspring) and associated issues are consistent and understandable; updated recommendations on public monitoring policy are available; acceptable (or tolerable) 'contamination' levels are clearly stated and defined; strategies for mitigating the serious psychological consequences arising from radiological accidents are sought; and, last but not least, failures in fostering information sharing on radiological protection policy after an accident need to be addressed with recommendations to minimise such lapses in communication.

[The peculiar features of conducting comprehensive expertises of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment].

PubMed

Fetisov, V A; Gusarov, A A; Smirenin, S A

2016-01-01

The present article deals with the problem of forensic medical diagnostics of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during motor vehicle accidents. The authors place special emphasis on the fact of a significant increase in the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) with such consequences throughout the world. The modern automobile industry pays much attention to the enhancement of the car safety features by significantly improving the design of passenger compartments. It accounts for a change in the traditional character of the injuries to both the driver and the passengers resulting from motor vehicle accidents. This, in turn, creates difficulties for the forensic medical experts as regards personality identification of the subjects who happened to be inside the car at the moment of the collision especially in the case of unascertainable circumstances of the accident and/or the involvement of several victims. The authors describe peculiarities of the injuries inflicted inside the passenger car compartment during road traffic accidents including such that result from bringing the driver and the passengers closer to the construction elements of the car (stage I), their direct contact with these elements (stage II), and subsequent displacement (stage III).

Emergency Responses and Health Consequences after the Fukushima Accident; Evacuation and Relocation.

PubMed

Hasegawa, A; Ohira, T; Maeda, M; Yasumura, S; Tanigawa, K

2016-04-01

The Fukushima accident was a compounding disaster following the strong earthquake and huge tsunami. The direct health effects of radiation were relatively well controlled considering the severity of the accident, not only among emergency workers but also residents. Other serious health issues include deaths during evacuation, collapse of the radiation emergency medical system, increased mortality among displaced elderly people and public healthcare issues in Fukushima residents. The Fukushima mental health and lifestyle survey disclosed that the Fukushima accident caused severe psychological distress in the residents from evacuation zones. In addition to psychiatric and mental health problems, there are lifestyle-related problems such as an increase proportion of those overweight, an increased prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidaemia and changes in health-related behaviours among evacuees; all of which may lead to an increased cardiovascular disease risk in the future. The effects of a major nuclear accident on societies are diverse and enduring. The countermeasures should include disaster management, long-term general public health services, mental and psychological care, behavioural and societal support, in addition to efforts to mitigate the health effects attributable to radiation. Copyright © 2016 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-31

As a consequence of several recent tank car accidents, the structural integrity of railroad tank cars has come under greater scrutiny, especially the older portion of the fleet fabricated prior to steel normalization requirements. The purpose of this...

Causal analysis of passenger train accidents on freight rail corridors.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-11-01

A number of economic, technical and political factors have limited the development of new, dedicated, very-high-speed rail systems in North America. Consequently, most, near-term development of improved or expanded passenger rail service in the U.S. ...

Mechanical properties of tank car steels retired from the fleet

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-03

As a consequence of recent accidents involving the release of hazardous materials (hazmat), the structural integrity and crashworthiness of railroad tank cars have come under scrutiny. Particular attention has been given to the older portion of the f...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

40 CFR 68.67 - Process hazard analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Program 3 Prevention Program § 68.67 Process hazard analysis. (a... potential for catastrophic consequences. (3) Engineering and administrative controls applicable to the... engineering and administrative controls; (5) Stationary source siting; (6) Human factors; and (7) A...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 70.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... event that prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or... licensee condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

10 CFR 30.50 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... prevents immediate protective actions necessary to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials... license condition to prevent releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The...

Farm Safety

PubMed Central

Wilson, G. S.

1966-01-01

Accident and safety are related terms; the higher the accident rate in any industry, the greater is the need for safety measures designed to prevent accidents. This article discusses the accident and safety problems in agriculture, which includes horticulture and forestry. There is still a tendency among townspeople to think of the countryside as peaceful and tranquil, a place where nothing happens very quickly and far removed from violent death or crippling injury. This pleasant rustic picture has undergone a striking change in the last 30 years owing to considerable agricultural mechanization and the development of chemical pesticides, which have brought new dangers to those who live and work on the land. Although men have readily adapted themselves to new machines and methods, they have not proved as able to recognize new dangers and learn how to guard against them. In consequence, accidents have increased to such an extent that the whole industry has realized the need for positive preventive measures. In this country, it is generally accepted that an employer of labour has a responsibility to provide safe working conditions for those he employs. Farm safety legislation goes a little further and usually requires an employer to provide necessary safeguards, with the added requirement on a worker to make use of them. It is a feature of accident prevention work that it never reaches a stage when it can be regarded as complete. Even when a reduction in accidents has been achieved, the effort must be sustained or the trend will be quickly reversed. Images PMID:5904095

Accident investigation practices in Europe--main responses from a recent study of accidents in industry and transport.

PubMed

Roed-Larsen, Sverre; Valvisto, T; Harms-Ringdahl, L; Kirchsteiger, C

2004-07-26

Europe has during recent years been shocked by disasters from natural events and technical breakdowns. The consequences have been comprehensive, measured by lost lives, injuries, and material and environmental damage. ESReDA wanted in 2000--by setting up a special expert group on accident investigation--to clarify the state of art of accident investigation practices and to map the use of thoroughly accident investigation in order to learn lessons from past disasters and prevent new ones. The scope was to cover three sectors in the society: transport, production processes and storage of hazardous materials, and energy production. The main method used was a questionnaire, which was sent in 2001 to about 150 organisations. About 50 replies were analysed. The replies showed great variations but also similarities, among others in definition of accident and incident, the objectives of the investigation team, criteria used to start an investigation, the status of the investigation organisation, the flow of information, the composition of the investigation team, and the use of internal or international procedures or rules. Several methods (in total 14 different methods were mentioned) were used for carrying out accident /incident investigations. Most of the respondents were willing to co-operate in one or another way with ESReDA. Although there are important biases in the material, the results from questionnaire are important inputs to the future work of ESReDA Expert group in this field. 3 safety approaches have been identified.

Automated vehicle for railway track fault detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, M.; Sujay, S.; Tushar, B.; Chitra, P.

2017-11-01

For the safety reasons, railroad tracks need to be inspected on a regular basis for detecting physical defects or design non compliances. Such track defects and non compliances, if not detected in a certain interval of time, may eventually lead to severe consequences such as train derailments. Inspection must happen twice weekly by a human inspector to maintain safety standards as there are hundreds and thousands of miles of railroad track. But in such type of manual inspection, there are many drawbacks that may result in the poor inspection of the track, due to which accidents may cause in future. So to avoid such errors and severe accidents, this automated system is designed.Such a concept would surely introduce automation in the field of inspection process of railway track and can help to avoid mishaps and severe accidents due to faults in the track.

Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2018-01-01

Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

Feedback-related negativity is enhanced in adolescence during a gambling task with and without probabilistic reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Martínez-Velázquez, Eduardo S; Ramos-Loyo, Julieta; González-Garrido, Andrés A; Sequeira, Henrique

2015-01-21

Feedback-related negativity (FRN) is a negative deflection that appears around 250 ms after the gain or loss of feedback to chosen alternatives in a gambling task in frontocentral regions following outcomes. Few studies have reported FRN enhancement in adolescents compared with adults in a gambling task without probabilistic reinforcement learning, despite the fact that learning from positive or negative consequences is crucial for decision-making during adolescence. Therefore, the aim of the present research was to identify differences in FRN amplitude and latency between adolescents and adults on a gambling task with favorable and unfavorable probabilistic reinforcement learning conditions, in addition to a nonlearning condition with monetary gains and losses. Higher rate scores of high-magnitude choices during the final 30 trials compared with the first 30 trials were observed during the favorable condition, whereas lower rates were observed during the unfavorable condition in both groups. Higher FRN amplitude in all conditions and longer latency in the nonlearning condition were observed in adolescents compared with adults and in relation to losses. Results indicate that both the adolescents and the adults improved their performance in relation to positive and negative feedback. However, the FRN findings suggest an increased sensitivity to external feedback to losses in adolescents compared with adults, irrespective of the presence or absence of probabilistic reinforcement learning. These results reflect processing differences on the neural monitoring system and provide new perspectives on the dynamic development of an adolescent's brain.

Nuclear Reactor Accident Fallout Artifacts: Unusual Black Spots on Digital Radiographs.

PubMed

Kashimura, Yasuhiro; Chida, Koichi

2015-12-01

The Fukushima nuclear power plant accident resulted in the discharge of radioactive particulate material into the atmosphere. Consequently, several hospitals in Japan have observed black spots on x-ray computed radiography (CR) images caused by particulate radioactive fallout. These black spots have no effect on human health. To reduce the influence of black spots on CR images, we need to erase latent images on imaging plates (IPs) immediately before clinical use and read the IPs soon after the x-ray examination. Alternatively, the contaminated felt of a cassette can be cleaned or exchanged, if possible.

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2016-01-01

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

'Fatalism', accident causation and prevention: issues for health promotion from an exploratory study in a Yoruba town, Nigeria.

PubMed

Dixey, R A

1999-04-01

As countries experience the 'epidemiological transition' with a relative decline in infectious diseases, accident rates tend to increase, particularly road traffic accidents. The health promotion interventions intended to prevent or minimize the consequences of accidents have been developed in predominantly Western, industrialized countries. Although some of these solutions have been applied with success to less developed countries, there are also good reasons why such solutions are ineffective when tried in a different context. Health promotion as developed in the West has a particular ideological bias, being framed within a secular, individualist and rationalist culture. Different cosmologies exist outside this culture, often described as 'fatalist' by Western commentators and as obstructing change. Changing these cosmologies or worldviews may not fit with the ethic of paying due respect to the cultural traditions of the 'target group'. Health promotion is therefore faced with a dilemma. In addition to different worldviews, the different levels of development also mean that solutions formulated in richer countries do not suit poorer countries. This paper uses a small exploratory study in a Yoruba town in Nigeria to examine these points. Interviews with key informants were held in March 1994 in Igbo-Ora and data were extracted from hospital records. Levels of accidents from available records are noted and people's ideas about accident prevention are discussed. Recommendations as to the way forward are then proposed.

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Asako J.; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E.; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M.; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-01-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocyto-fluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident. PMID:28240558

The Causal Relationship between DNA Damage Induction in Bovine Lymphocytes and the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

PubMed

Nakamura, Asako J; Suzuki, Masatoshi; Redon, Christophe E; Kuwahara, Yoshikazu; Yamashiro, Hideaki; Abe, Yasuyuki; Takahashi, Shintaro; Fukuda, Tomokazu; Isogai, Emiko; Bonner, William M; Fukumoto, Manabu

2017-05-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) accident, the largest nuclear incident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, occurred when the plant was hit by a tsunami triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. The subsequent uncontrolled release of radioactive substances resulted in massive evacuations in a 20-km zone. To better understand the biological consequences of the FNPP accident, we have been measuring DNA damage levels in cattle in the evacuation zone. DNA damage was evaluated by assessing the levels of DNA double-strand breaks in peripheral blood lymphocytes by immunocytofluorescence-based quantification of γ-H2AX foci. A greater than two-fold increase in the fraction of damaged lymphocytes was observed in all animal cohorts within the evacuation zone, and the levels of DNA damage decreased slightly over the 700-day sample collection period. While the extent of damage appeared to be independent of the distance from the accident site and the estimated radiation dose from radiocesium, we observed age-dependent accumulation of DNA damage. Thus, this study, which was the first to evaluate the biological impact of the FNPP accident utilizing the γ-H2AX assays, indicated the causal relation between high levels of DNA damage in animals living in the evacuation zone and the FNPP accident.

An aftermath analysis of the 2014 coal mine accident in Soma, Turkey: Use of risk performance indicators based on historical experience.

PubMed

Spada, Matteo; Burgherr, Peter

2016-02-01

On the 13th of May 2014 a fire related incident in the Soma coal mine in Turkey caused 301 fatalities and more than 80 injuries. This has been the largest coal mine accident in Turkey, and in the OECD country group, so far. This study investigated if such a disastrous event should be expected, in a statistical sense, based on historical observations. For this purpose, PSI's ENSAD database is used to extract accident data for the period 1970-2014. Four different cases are analyzed, i.e., OECD, OECD w/o Turkey, Turkey and USA. Analysis of temporal trends for annual numbers of accidents and fatalities indicated a non-significant decreasing tendency for OECD and OECD w/o Turkey and a significant one for USA, whereas for Turkey both measures showed an increase over time. The expectation analysis revealed clearly that an event with the consequences of the Soma accident is rather unlikely for OECD, OECD w/o Turkey and USA. In contrast, such a severe accident has a substantially higher expectation for Turkey, i.e. it cannot be considered an extremely rare event, based on historical experience. This indicates a need for improved safety measures and stricter regulations in the Turkish coal mining sector in order to get closer to the rest of OECD. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavior Modification with an Aphasic Man

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ince, Laurence P.

1973-01-01

Techniques based upon operant conditioning were employed with a male patient who had sustained a cerebrovascular accident with consequent right hemiplegia and expressive asphasia. A combination of positive verbal reinforcement and feedback of progress were utilized to improve language fluency and speed of typing. (Author)

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

10 CFR 40.60 - Reporting requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... to avoid exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits or... releases exceeding regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation and radioactive materials exceeding regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; (ii) The equipment is required to be...

The numerical-statistical approach for hazard prediction of landslides and its application in Ukraine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trofimchuk, O.; Kaliukh, Iu.

2012-04-01

More than 90% of the territory of Ukraine has complex ground conditions. Unpredictable changes of natural geological and man-made factors governing ground conditions, may lead to dangerous deformation processes resulting in accidents and disasters. Among them, landslides are the first by the amount of the inflicted damage in Ukraine and the second only to earthquakes in the world. Totally about 23 000 landslides were identified in the territory of Ukraine. The standard deterministic procedure of assessment of the slope stability, especially with the lack of reference engineering geological data, results in obtaining estimated values of stability coefficients differing from the real ones in many cases. Application of a probabilistic approach will allow to take into account the changeable properties of soils and to determine danger and risk of landslide dislocations. The matter of choice of landslide protection measures is directly connected with a risk: expensively but reliably or cheaper but with a great probability of accidents. The risk determines the consequences either economic, social or others, of a potential landslide dislocation on the slope both during construction of a retaining structure on it and in the process of its further maintenance. The quintessence of risk determination consists in the following: study and extrapolation of the past events for each specific occurrence. Expected conclusions and probable damages as a result of a calculated and accepted risk can be determined only with a certain level of uncertainty. Considering this fact improvement of the accuracy of numerical and analytical estimates when calculating the risk magnitude makes it possible to reduce the uncertainty. Calculations of the Chernivtsi shear landslides (Ukraine) were made with an application of Plaxis software and due account of a risk of its displacement was performed for the typical distribution diagram of the landslide-prone slope. The calculations showed that seismic events of intensity up to 6 points are able to significantly impair the characteristics of soil along the sliding surface and affect the slope stability and the value of landslide pressure onto supporting buildings. The further improvement of the site seismicity (up to 7-8 points) results in the substantial decrease of the stability coefficient. The slope, which firstly was stable, turns into a limiting equilibrium state, and then its state becomes unstable. Based on the calculation results, it is possible to follow step-by-step the process of stress redistribution in the landslide slope with its seismicity increase, which eventually causes the slope motion (unloading of accumulated stresses). Measures of landslide risk management are aimed at ensuring and maintaining acceptable or in some case an allowable risk level. In addition to calculations of soil masses stability, parameters of structures, creation of drawings and making of estimates, it is also necessary to take measures aimed at compensation of uncertainties and prevention of unforeseen situations due to incomplete (unreliable) surveys, etc. Depending on the initial situation or requirements the landslide risk management is to solve the following three problems: prevention of negative consequences; reduction of danger and risk; rectification of consequences, and prevention of a new danger development.

A Model for Risk Analysis of Oil Tankers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montewka, Jakub; Krata, Przemysław; Goerland, Floris; Kujala, Pentti

2010-01-01

The paper presents a model for risk analysis regarding marine traffic, with the emphasis on two types of the most common marine accidents which are: collision and grounding. The focus is on oil tankers as these pose the highest environmental risk. A case study in selected areas of Gulf of Finland in ice free conditions is presented. The model utilizes a well-founded formula for risk calculation, which combines the probability of an unwanted event with its consequences. Thus the model is regarded a block type model, consisting of blocks for the probability of collision and grounding estimation respectively as well as blocks for consequences of an accident modelling. Probability of vessel colliding is assessed by means of a Minimum Distance To Collision (MDTC) based model. The model defines in a novel way the collision zone, using mathematical ship motion model and recognizes traffic flow as a non homogeneous process. The presented calculations address waterways crossing between Helsinki and Tallinn, where dense cross traffic during certain hours is observed. For assessment of a grounding probability, a new approach is proposed, which utilizes a newly developed model, where spatial interactions between objects in different locations are recognized. A ship at a seaway and navigational obstructions may be perceived as interacting objects and their repulsion may be modelled by a sort of deterministic formulation. Risk due to tankers running aground addresses an approach fairway to an oil terminal in Sköldvik, near Helsinki. The consequences of an accident are expressed in monetary terms, and concern costs of an oil spill, based on statistics of compensations claimed from the International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds) by parties involved.

Analysis of radiation safety for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) on PWR-100 MWe type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udiyani, P. M.; Husnayani, I.; Deswandri; Sunaryo, G. R.

2018-02-01

Indonesia as an archipelago country, including big, medium and small islands is suitable to construction of Small Medium/Modular reactors. Preliminary technology assessment on various SMR has been started, indeed the SMR is grouped into Light Water Reactor, Gas Cooled Reactor, and Solid Cooled Reactor and from its site it is group into Land Based reactor and Water Based Reactor. Fukushima accident made people doubt about the safety of Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), which impact on the public perception of the safety of nuclear power plants. The paper will describe the assessment of safety and radiation consequences on site for normal operation and Design Basis Accident postulation of SMR based on PWR-100 MWe in Bangka Island. Consequences of radiation for normal operation simulated for 3 units SMR. The source term was generated from an inventory by using ORIGEN-2 software and the consequence of routine calculated by PC-Cream and accident by PC Cosyma. The adopted methodology used was based on site-specific meteorological and spatial data. According to calculation by PC-CREAM 08 computer code, the highest individual dose in site area for adults is 5.34E-02 mSv/y in ESE direction within 1 km distance from stack. The result of calculation is that doses on public for normal operation below 1mSv/y. The calculation result from PC Cosyma, the highest individual dose is 1.92.E+00 mSv in ESE direction within 1km distance from stack. The total collective dose (all pathway) is 3.39E-01 manSv, with dominant supporting from cloud pathway. Results show that there are no evacuation countermeasure will be taken based on the regulation of emergency.

Thyroid Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Reactor Accident

PubMed Central

Nagataki, Shigenobu

2012-01-01

Background A special report, ‘The Fukushima Accident’, was delivered at the 35th Annual Meeting of the European Thyroid Association in Krakow on September 11, 2011, and this study is the follow-up of the special report. Objectives To present a preliminary review of potential thyroid consequences of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear reactor accident. Methods Numerous new data have been presented in Japanese, and most of them are available on the website from each research institute and/or from each municipality. The review was made using these data from the website. Results When individual radiation doses were expressed as values in more than 99% of residents, radiation doses by behavior survey in evacuation and deliberate evacuation areas were less than 10 mSv in the first 4 months, and internal radiation doses measured by whole body counters were less than 1 mSv/year. Individual thyroid radiation doses were less than 50 mSv (intervention levels) even in evacuation areas. As for health consequences, no one died and no one suffered from acute effects. The thyroid ultrasound examination is in progress and following examination of almost 40,000 children, 35% of them have nodules and/or cysts but no cancers. Conclusions Countermeasures against radiation must consider current individual measured values, although every effort must be taken to reconstruct radiation doses as precisely as possible. At present, the difference of thyroid radiation dose between Chernobyl and Fukushima appears to be due to the strict control of milk started within a week after the accident in Fukushima. Since the iodine-131 plume moved around in wide areas and for a long time, the method of thyroid protection must be reconsidered. PMID:24783014

Ethical Issues Related to the Promotion of a "100 mSv Threshold Assumption" in Japan after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident in 2011: Background and Consequences.

PubMed

Tsuda, Toshihide; Lindahl, Lena; Tokinobu, Akiko

2017-06-01

This article describes the debates in Japan regarding the 100 mSv threshold assumption and ethical issues related to it, and explores the background to distorted risk information and absence of risk communication in Japan. Then we seek proper risk communication based on scientific evidence. On March 11, 2011 an accident occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant due to the Great East Japan Earthquake. Since then a number of misunderstandings have become common in Japan as a result of public statements by the Japanese and local governments that have no basis in medical science or are contradictory to medical science. Consequently, not only the population of Fukushima Prefecture, but also others, have been subjected to unnecessary exposure to radiation, against the As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principle. The number of cases of thyroid cancer has increased by one or two orders of magnitude since the accident in Fukushima. However, the population has hardly been given any correct information from the central and local governments, medical societies, and media. The center of this problem is a statement on radiation-induced cancer (including thyroid cancer) made by the Japanese Government and Japanese medical academic societies indicating that "exposure of less than 100 mSv gives rise to no excess risk of cancer, and even if there is some resulting cancer it will be impossible to detect it" (this will be referred to as "the 100 mSv threshold assumption" from now onward). They have been saying this since April 2011 and have made no effort to correct it. Many Japanese began to notice this but correct information on radiation protection has reached only one part of the population. Risk communication should be based on scientific evidence, and providing it as information for the public is a key element. In Japan, governments and academic societies tried to communicate with the public without doing it. Ethical problems after the accident in Fukushima can be understood from the consequences of the mistakes in both risk information and risk communication in Japan after 2011.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been using full-power. Level 1, limited-scope risk models for the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program for over fifteen years. These models have evolved and matured over the years, as have probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and computer technologies. Significant upgrading activities have been undertaken over the past three years, with involvement from the Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR), Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), and several national laboratories. Part of these activities was an RES-sponsored feasibility study investigating the ability to extend the ASP models to includemore » contributors to core damage from events initiated with the reactor at low power or shutdown (LP/SD), both internal events and external events. This paper presents only the LP/SD internal event modeling efforts.« less

Normal accidents: Living with high-risk technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perrow, Ch.

1984-01-01

It was a major nuclear accident, the one at Three Mile Island in 1979, that turned Perrow's attention to accidents in general. A specialist in the sociology of organizations, he soon learned that events at TMI were not simply the result of an engineering failure or the result of operator error; rather, they were a consequence of systems failure. What the author learned from his research into the accident at TMI is that there was no coherent theory of accidents in either the engineering or the social science literature, so he set out to create one. This book discusses themore » science of accident research. Since Perrow is an outsider to all of the many technical fields reviewed in the book, ranging from nuclear power to marine transport to DNA research, experts may challenge his sources and point out his errors. Perrow's central thesis is that accidents are inevitable - that is, they are ''normal'' - in technologies that have two system characteristics that he terms ''interactive complexity'' and ''tight coupling''. Using these concepts, Perrow constructs a theory of systems which he believes to be unique in the literature on accidents and the literature on organizations. His theory concentrates upon the properties of systems themselves, rather than on the errors that owners, designers and operators make in running them. He seeks a more basic explanation than operator error; faulty design or equipment; inadequately trained personnel; or the system is too big, under-financed or mismanaged. Nuclear power in the United States may not survive its current economic and regulatory troubles, but discussion continues. Only a small part of the debate concerns plant safety: economic competitiveness, nuclear arms proliferation and nuclear waste disposal are the salient themes.« less

A physical model for dementia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotolongo-Costa, O.; Gaggero-Sager, L. M.; Becker, J. T.; Maestu, F.; Sotolongo-Grau, O.

2017-04-01

Aging associated brain decline often result in some kind of dementia. Even when this is a complex brain disorder a physical model can be used in order to describe its general behavior. A probabilistic model for the development of dementia is obtained and fitted to some experimental data obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. It is explained how dementia appears as a consequence of aging and why it is irreversible.

Link state relationships under incident conditions : using a CTM-based linear programming dynamic traffic assignment model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road : maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel ti...

Link State Relationships Under Incident Conditions: Using a CTM-Based Linear Programming Dynamic Traffic Assignment Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

Urban transportation networks, consisting of numerous links and nodes, experience traffic incidents such as accidents and road maintenance work. A typical consequence of incidents is congestion which results in long queues and causes high travel time...

Potential for Fuel Tank Fire and Hydrodynamic Ram from Uncontained Aircraft Engine Debris

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

This report addresses the potential consequences of the impact and penetration of fuel tanks by debris from uncontained engine failures on commercial jet aircraft. The report presents a brief review of accident data and of the pertinent technical lit...

An overview of current knowledge concerning the health and environmental consequences of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident.

PubMed

Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Mousseau, Timothy Alexander; Wu, Junwen; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi

2015-12-01

Since 2011, the scientific community has worked to identify the exact transport and deposition patterns of radionuclides released from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in Japan. Nevertheless, there still remain many unknowns concerning the health and environmental impacts of these radionuclides. The present paper reviews the current understanding of the FDNPP accident with respect to interactions of the released radionuclides with the environment and impacts on human and non-human biota. Here, we scrutinize existing literature and combine and interpret observations and modeling assessments derived after Fukushima. Finally, we discuss the behavior and applications of radionuclides that might be used as tracers of environmental processes. This review focuses on (137)Cs and (131)I releases derived from Fukushima. Published estimates suggest total release amounts of 12-36.7PBq of (137)Cs and 150-160PBq of (131)I. Maximum estimated human mortality due to the Fukushima nuclear accident is 10,000 (due to all causes) and the maximum estimates for lifetime cancer mortality and morbidity are 1500 and 1800, respectively. Studies of plants and animals in the forests of Fukushima have recorded a range of physiological, developmental, morphological, and behavioral consequences of exposure to radioactivity. Some of the effects observed in the exposed populations include the following: hematological aberrations in Fukushima monkeys; genetic, developmental and morphological aberrations in a butterfly; declines in abundances of birds, butterflies and cicadas; aberrant growth forms in trees; and morphological abnormalities in aphids. These findings are discussed from the perspective of conservation biology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Invasion of microorganisms in bronchial mucosa of liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences].

PubMed

Poliakova, V A; Suchko, V A; Tereshchenko, V P; Bazyka, D A; Golovnia, O M; Rudavskaia, G A

2001-01-01

Bronchial bioptates of 97 liquidators of the Chernobyl accident consequences with chronic bronchitis and 23 patients of control nosological group as well as sputum (174 persons) and BAL (22 persons) of liquidators with chronic obstructive lung disease (COLD) were studied to define pathogenic role of automicroflora in the development of lung diseases. Such methods as electron microscopy, immunohistochemistry and microbiology were used. The revealed invasion of microorganisms occurred against the background of pathology of superficial bronchial epithelium with a decrease of HLA-DR and CD23 lymphocytes and increase of CD1c lymphocytes in lamina propria of bronchial mucosa of the liquidators. Verification of microorganisms characteristic of the upper respiratory tracts and atypical presence of Escherichia coli were found in the contents of the lower parts of broncho-pulmonary system of the liquidators. The obtained results testify to the activation of automicroflora and appearance of pathogenic microorganisms were caused by deterioration of specific and non-specific immune protection in liquidators with COLD.

Radiation-Driven Migration: The Case of Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

PubMed Central

Zhang, Hui; Yan, Wanglin; Oba, Akihiro; Zhang, Wei

2014-01-01

The emigration of residents following the Fukushima nuclear accident has resulted in aging and depopulation problems in radiation-contaminated areas. The recovery of affected areas, and even those areas with low radioactive pollution levels, is still heavily affected by this problem. This slow recovery consequently affects immigration patterns. This review aims to present possible factors that have contributed to this dilemma. We first present an overview of the evacuation protocol that was administered in the study area following the Fukushima accident. We then analyze characteristics of the subsequent exodus by comparing population data for both before and after the accident. Based on the findings of existing literature, we identify three causes of emigration: (1) The health risks of living in a low radiation zone are still unknown; (2) The post-disaster psychological disturbance and distrust of government information promotes the emigration of evacuees; (3) an absence of economic vitality and of a leading industry renders the area less attractive to individuals residing outside of the city. Further research is needed on this issue, especially with respect to countermeasures for addressing this problem. PMID:25207491

The differentiated assessment of damage to economy of subjects of the Siberian Federal District from road and transport accident rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Artur I.; Svistunova, Vera A.; Petrova, Daria A.

2018-01-01

The results of assessment of damage from the road accident rate in subjects of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) of the Russian Federation are presented in the article. The thesis about spatial differentiation of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) losses in different regions of the country because of people’s death and injuries in the road accidents (RA) and due to formations of property and ecological damage was chosen as a working hypothesis. The calculations, carried out for 12 subjects of the SFD, confirmed this idea. The range of calculated values of economic damage from road accident rate (in % of GRP) was from 1.3 (Tomsk region) to 12.6 (Republic of Tyva) in 2015. In article the attempt to explain the received result by heterogeneous development of economics in various Russian regions is made. The consequence of it is a heterogeneous quality of people’s life and quite various perception of life value by inhabitants of different regions that influences their life safety level.

Physical, social and emotional function after work accidents: a medicolegal perspective.

PubMed

Holtedahl, Robin; Veiersted, Kaj Bo

2007-01-01

The aim of this study was to analyse social and functional consequences of work accidents in a group of workers' compensation claimants who had been referred from the National Insurance Administration for a medicolegal assessment. The injured workers were evaluated on average 3 years after their accidents. Their medical records were analysed, and each injury was scored according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). Participants completed the Short Form Questionnaire (SF-36). Factors relating to outcome on SF-36 were analysed using univariate and multivariate methods. 191 claimants returned the SF-36 (62%), 83% of the respondents had an AIS score of less than two, 33% reported working full time. Compared to population-based norms, the respondents reported significantly reduced health on all eight scales of SF-36. Better health and function was mainly associated with a higher level of education and more serious injuries. The extent of social support in the workplace after the accident was only partly related to outcome. The importance of psychosocial factors when making injury assessments in a medicolegal setting is highlighted.

Global risk of radioactive fallout after major nuclear reactor accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lelieveld, J.; Kunkel, D.; Lawrence, M. G.

2012-05-01

Major reactor accidents of nuclear power plants are rare, yet the consequences are catastrophic. But what is meant by "rare"? And what can be learned from the Chernobyl and Fukushima incidents? Here we assess the cumulative, global risk of exposure to radioactivity due to atmospheric dispersion of gases and particles following severe nuclear accidents (the most severe ones on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES 7), using particulate 137Cs and gaseous 131I as proxies for the fallout. Our results indicate that previously the occurrence of INES 7 major accidents and the risks of radioactive contamination have been underestimated. Using a global model of the atmosphere we compute that on average, in the event of a major reactor accident of any nuclear power plant worldwide, more than 90% of emitted 137Cs would be transported beyond 50 km and about 50% beyond 1000 km distance before being deposited. This corroborates that such accidents have large-scale and trans-boundary impacts. Although the emission strengths and atmospheric removal processes of 137Cs and 131I are quite different, the radioactive contamination patterns over land and the human exposure due to deposition are computed to be similar. High human exposure risks occur around reactors in densely populated regions, notably in West Europe and South Asia, where a major reactor accident can subject around 30 million people to radioactive contamination. The recent decision by Germany to phase out its nuclear reactors will reduce the national risk, though a large risk will still remain from the reactors in neighbouring countries.

Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.

1993-10-01

This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, modelsmore » are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.« less

Consequences of the nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl.

PubMed Central

Ginzburg, H M; Reis, E

1991-01-01

The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident, in the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR), on April 26, 1986, was the first major nuclear power plant accident that resulted in a large-scale fire and subsequent explosions, immediate and delayed deaths of plant operators and emergency service workers, and the radioactive contamination of a significant land area. The release of radioactive material, over a 10-day period, resulted in millions of Soviets, and other Europeans, being exposed to measurable levels of radioactive fallout. Because of the effects of wind and rain, the radioactive nuclide fallout distribution patterns are not well defined, though they appear to be focused in three contiguous Soviet Republics: the Ukrainian SSR, the Byelorussian SSR, and the Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic. Further, because of the many radioactive nuclides (krypton, xenon, cesium, iodine, strontium, plutonium) released by the prolonged fires at Chernobyl, the long-term medical, psychological, social, and economic effects will require careful and prolonged study. Specifically, studies on the medical (leukemia, cancers, thyroid disease) and psychological (reactive depressions, post-traumatic stress disorders, family disorganization) consequences of continued low dose radiation exposure in the affected villages and towns need to be conducted so that a coherent, comprehensive, community-oriented plan may evolve that will not cause those already affected any additional harm and confusion. Images p38-a p38-b PMID:1899937

Methods for external event screening quantification: Risk Methods Integration and Evaluation Program (RMIEP) methods development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ravindra, M.K.; Banon, H.

1992-07-01

In this report, the scoping quantification procedures for external events in probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants are described. External event analysis in a PRA has three important goals; (1) the analysis should be complete in that all events are considered; (2) by following some selected screening criteria, the more significant events are identified for detailed analysis; (3) the selected events are analyzed in depth by taking into account the unique features of the events: hazard, fragility of structures and equipment, external-event initiated accident sequences, etc. Based on the above goals, external event analysis may be considered as amore » three-stage process: Stage I: Identification and Initial Screening of External Events; Stage II: Bounding Analysis; Stage III: Detailed Risk Analysis. In the present report, first, a review of published PRAs is given to focus on the significance and treatment of external events in full-scope PRAs. Except for seismic, flooding, fire, and extreme wind events, the contributions of other external events to plant risk have been found to be negligible. Second, scoping methods for external events not covered in detail in the NRC's PRA Procedures Guide are provided. For this purpose, bounding analyses for transportation accidents, extreme winds and tornadoes, aircraft impacts, turbine missiles, and chemical release are described.« less

Beyond a series of security nets: Applying STAMP & STPA to port security

DOE PAGES

Williams, Adam D.

2015-11-17

Port security is an increasing concern considering the significant role of ports in global commerce and today’s increasingly complex threat environment. Current approaches to port security mirror traditional models of accident causality -- ‘a series of security nets’ based on component reliability and probabilistic assumptions. Traditional port security frameworks result in isolated and inconsistent improvement strategies. Recent work in engineered safety combines the ideas of hierarchy, emergence, control and communication into a new paradigm for understanding port security as an emergent complex system property. The ‘System-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP)’ is a new model of causality based on systemsmore » and control theory. The associated analysis process -- System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) -- identifies specific technical or procedural security requirements designed to work in coordination with (and be traceable to) overall port objectives. This process yields port security design specifications that can mitigate (if not eliminate) port security vulnerabilities related to an emphasis on component reliability, lack of coordination between port security stakeholders or economic pressures endemic in the maritime industry. As a result, this article aims to demonstrate how STAMP’s broader view of causality and complexity can better address the dynamic and interactive behaviors of social, organizational and technical components of port security.« less

What becomes of nuclear risk assessment in light of radiation hormesis?

PubMed

Cuttler, Jerry M

2006-08-25

A nuclear probabilistic risk or safety assessment (PRA or PSA) is a scientific calculation that uses assumptions and models to determine the likelihood of plant or fuel repository failures and the corresponding releases of radioactivity. Estimated radiation doses to the surrounding population are linked inappropriately to risks of cancer death and congenital malformations. Even though PRAs use very pessimistic assumptions, they demonstrate that nuclear power plants and fuel repositories are very safe compared with the health risks of other generating options or other risks that people readily accept. Because of the frightening negative images and the exaggerated safety and health concerns that are communicated, many people judge nuclear risks to be unacceptable and do not favour nuclear plants. Large-scale tests and experience with nuclear accidents demonstrate that even severe accidents expose the public to only low doses of radiation, and a century of research has demonstrated that such exposures are beneficial to health. A scientific basis for this phenomenon now exists. PRAs are valuable tools for improving plant designs, but if nuclear power is to play a significant role in meeting future energy needs, we must communicate its many real benefits and dispel the negative images formed by unscientific extrapolations of harmful effects at high doses.

Beyond a series of security nets: Applying STAMP & STPA to port security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Adam D.

Port security is an increasing concern considering the significant role of ports in global commerce and today’s increasingly complex threat environment. Current approaches to port security mirror traditional models of accident causality -- ‘a series of security nets’ based on component reliability and probabilistic assumptions. Traditional port security frameworks result in isolated and inconsistent improvement strategies. Recent work in engineered safety combines the ideas of hierarchy, emergence, control and communication into a new paradigm for understanding port security as an emergent complex system property. The ‘System-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP)’ is a new model of causality based on systemsmore » and control theory. The associated analysis process -- System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) -- identifies specific technical or procedural security requirements designed to work in coordination with (and be traceable to) overall port objectives. This process yields port security design specifications that can mitigate (if not eliminate) port security vulnerabilities related to an emphasis on component reliability, lack of coordination between port security stakeholders or economic pressures endemic in the maritime industry. As a result, this article aims to demonstrate how STAMP’s broader view of causality and complexity can better address the dynamic and interactive behaviors of social, organizational and technical components of port security.« less

Context-aware system for pre-triggering irreversible vehicle safety actuators.

PubMed

Böhmländer, Dennis; Dirndorfer, Tobias; Al-Bayatti, Ali H; Brandmeier, Thomas

2017-06-01

New vehicle safety systems have led to a steady improvement of road safety and a reduction in the risk of suffering a major injury in vehicle accidents. A huge leap forward in the development of new vehicle safety systems are actuators that have to be activated irreversibly shortly before a collision in order to mitigate accident consequences. The triggering decision has to be based on measurements of exteroceptive sensors currently used in driver assistance systems. This paper focuses on developing a novel context-aware system designed to detect potential collisions and to trigger safety actuators even before an accident occurs. In this context, the analysis examines the information that can be collected from exteroceptive sensors (pre-crash data) to predict a certain collision and its severity to decide whether a triggering is entitled or not. A five-layer context-aware architecture is presented, that is able to collect contextual information about the vehicle environment and the actual driving state using different sensors, to perform reasoning about potential collisions, and to trigger safety functions upon that information. Accident analysis is used in a data model to represent uncertain knowledge and to perform reasoning. A simulation concept based on real accident data is introduced to evaluate the presented system concept. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrow, Charles W.; Bartel, Timothy James

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34Dmore » accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.« less

Infant homicide and accidental death in the United States, 1940-2005: ethics and epidemiological classification.

PubMed

Riggs, Jack E; Hobbs, Gerald R

2011-07-01

Potential ethical issues can arise during the process of epidemiological classification. For example, unnatural infant deaths are classified as accidental deaths or homicides. Societal sensitivity to the physical abuse and neglect of children has increased over recent decades. This enhanced sensitivity could impact reported infant homicide rates. Infant homicide and accident mortality rates in boys and girls in the USA from 1940 to 2005 were analysed. In 1940, infant accident mortality rates were over 20 times greater than infant homicide rates in both boys and girls. After about 1980, when the ratio of infant accident mortality rates to infant homicide rates decreased to less than five, and the sum of infant accident and homicide rates became relatively constant, further decreases in infant accident mortality rates were associated with increases in reported infant homicide rates. These findings suggest that the dramatic decline of accidental infant mortality and recent increased societal sensitivity to child abuse may be related to the increased infant homicide rates observed in the USA since 1980 rather than an actual increase in societal violence directed against infants. Ethical consequences of epidemiological classification, involving the principles of beneficence, non-maleficence and justice, are suggested by observed patterns in infant accidental deaths and homicides in the USA from 1940 to 2005.

Contribution of internal exposures to the radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Balonov, M I; Anspaugh, L R; Bouville, A; Likhtarev, I A

2007-01-01

The main pathways leading to exposure of members of the general public due to the Chernobyl accident were external exposure from radionuclides deposited on the ground and ingestion of contaminated terrestrial food products. The collective dose to the thyroid was nearly 1.5 million man Gy in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine with nearly half received by children and adolescents. The collective effective dose received in 1986-2005 by approximately five million residents living in the affected areas of the three countries was approximately 50,000 man Sv with approximately 40% from ingestion. That contribution might have been larger if countermeasures had not been applied. The main radionuclide contributing to both external and internal effective dose is 137Cs with smaller contributions of 134Cs and 90Sr and negligible contribution of transuranic elements. The major demonstrated radiation-caused health effect of the Chernobyl accident has been an elevated incidence of thyroid cancer in children.

The importance of early investigation and publishing in an emergent health and environment crisis.

PubMed

Murase, Kaori

2016-10-01

To minimize the damage resulting from a long-term environmental disaster such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, early disclosure of research data by scientists and prompt decision making by government authorities are required in place of careful, time-consuming research and deliberation about the consequences and cause of the accident. A Bayesian approach with flexible statistical modeling helps scientists and encourages government authorities to make decisions based on environmental data available in the early stages of a disaster. It is evident from Fukushima and similar accidents that classical research methods involving statistical methodologies that require rigorous experimental design and complex data sets are too cumbersome and delay important actions that may be critical in the early stages of an environmental disaster. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:680-682. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Sleep Apnea and Driving. Recommendations for Interpreting Spanish Regulations for Drivers.

PubMed

Terán-Santos, Joaquín; Egea Santaolalla, Carlos; Montserrat, Jose María; Masa Jiménez, Fernando; Librada Escribano, Maria Villar; Mirabet, Enrique; Valdés Rodríguez, Elena

2017-06-01

Road traffic accidents are one of the main causes of death worldwide and are clearly associated with sleepiness. Individuals with undiagnosed sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (SAHS) are among the population with a high risk of experiencing sleepiness at the wheel and, consequently, road traffic accidents. Treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) has been shown to reduce the risk of accidents among drivers with SAHS. For this reason, the European Union has included this disease in the psychological and physical criteria for obtaining or renewing a driving license. To comply with this European Directive, Spain has updated its driving laws accordingly. To facilitate the implementation of the new regulations, a group of experts from various medical societies and institutions has prepared these guidelines that include questionnaires to screen for SAHS, diagnostic and therapeutic criteria, and physician's report templates. Copyright © 2016 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

[Chronological assessment of the preventive measures taken in the field of road traffic accidents in France. Methodological problems and results. (author's transl)].

PubMed

Hatton, F; Bouvier, M H; Maujol, L

1981-01-01

Corresponding to a non-experimental approach and based upon the study of indices obtained from permanent statistics, this assessment presents methodological difficulties linked both: to the choice of permanant indicators and to the interpretation of their variations in a situation of observation. The results permit us to appraise the consequences of the global policy of prevention in the field of road traffic accidents in France during many consecutive years: - the decrease of mortality and morbidity demographic indices; - the strengthening of the regressive tendency of the risk indices linked to road traffic (number of dead and wounded in relation to the "km" covered, to the consumption of motor-fuel...). The agreement of the evolutive tendencies of these indicators lets us think that the campaign against traffic accidents has had the desired effects even if they are still incomplete.

Comorbidity and radiation: methodological aspects of health assessment of persons exposed to the Chornobyl accident factors.

PubMed

Nosach, O V

2013-01-01

Comorbidity is one of the most challenging problems of a modern medicine. In a population exposed to the factors of the Chornobyl accident there is an obvious increase in the number of diseases occurring simultaneously against the background of rising prevalence of different classes of chronic medical nosology. The scientific data analysis are presented on the methodological approaches that can be used to create a specialized system for integrated assessment of the health of patients with comorbid disorders. Developing such a system it should be taken into account the trends of changes in the incidence, prevalence and structure of chronic disease, factors and regularities of comorbid disease in the cohorts of Chornobyl accident clean-up workers, evacuees and dwellers of contaminated territories. The system should provide a non-random selection of combinations (clusters) of the most common diseases with serious consequences for the survivors. Nosach O. V., 2013.

Workplace safety in Bangladesh ready-made garment sector: 3 years after the Rana Plaza collapse.

PubMed

Barua, Uttama; Ansary, Mehedi Ahmed

2017-12-01

Workplace safety is one of the most important issues in industries worldwide, and is endangered by industrial accidents. Different industrial disasters have resulted in several initiatives worldwide to protect human life and reduce material damage, both nationally and internationally. In Bangladesh, the ready-made garment (RMG) industry is one of the most important export-oriented business sectors, which is facing challenges to ensure workplace safety. The Rana Plaza collapse in Bangladesh is the consequence of such non-compliance. The accident resulted in different local and global initiatives to address the challenges. This article reviews progress and achievement of the initiatives to reduce vulnerability in the Bangladesh RMG industry within 3 years after the deadly accident. In the long run, the challenge is to maintain momentum already created for achieving sustainability in the RMG sector in Bangladesh and maintaining compliance even after the end of support from external partners.

NAPS as an Alertness Management Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosekind, Mark R.; Smith, Roy M.; Miller, Donna L.; Co, Elizabeth L.; Gregory, Kevin B.; Gander, Philippa H.; Lebacqz, J. Victor

2001-01-01

Today, 24-hour operations are necessary to meet the demands of our society and the requirements of our industrialized global economy. These around-the-clock demands pose unique physiological challenges for the humans who remain central to safe and productive operations. Optimal alertness and performance are critical factors that are increasingly challenged by unusual, extended, or changing work/rest schedules. Technological advancements and automated systems can exacerbate the challenges faced by the human factor in these environments. Shift work, transportation demands, and continuous operations engender sleep loss and circadian disruption. Both of these physiological factors can lead to increased sleepiness, decreased performance, and a reduced margin of safety. These factors can increase vulnerability to incidents and accidents in operational settings. The consequences can have both societal effects (e.g., major destructive accidents such as Three Mile Island, Exxon Valdez, Bhopal) and personal effects (e.g., an accident driving home after a night shift).

‘Particle genetics’: treating every cell as unique

PubMed Central

Yvert, Gaël

2014-01-01

Genotype-phenotype relations are usually inferred from a deterministic point of view. For example, quantitative trait loci (QTL), which describe regions of the genome associated with a particular phenotype, are based on a mean trait difference between genotype categories. However, living systems comprise huge numbers of cells (the ‘particles’ of biology). Each cell can exhibit substantial phenotypic individuality, which can have dramatic consequences at the organismal level. Now, with technology capable of interrogating individual cells, it is time to consider how genotypes shape the probability laws of single cell traits. The possibility of mapping single cell probabilistic trait loci (PTL), which link genomic regions to probabilities of cellular traits, is a promising step in this direction. This approach requires thinking about phenotypes in probabilistic terms, a concept that statistical physicists have been applying to particles for a century. Here, I describe PTL and discuss their potential to enlarge our understanding of genotype-phenotype relations. PMID:24315431

Safety design approach for external events in Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamano, H.; Kubo, S.; Tani, A.

2012-07-01

This paper describes a safety design approach for external events in the design study of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor. An emphasis is introduction of a design extension external condition (DEEC). In addition to seismic design, other external events such as tsunami, strong wind, abnormal temperature, etc. were addressed in this study. From a wide variety of external events consisting of natural hazards and human-induced ones, a screening method was developed in terms of siting, consequence, frequency to select representative events. Design approaches for these events were categorized on the probabilistic, statistical and deterministic basis. External hazard conditions were considered mainlymore » for DEECs. In the probabilistic approach, the DEECs of earthquake, tsunami and strong wind were defined as 1/10 of exceedance probability of the external design bases. The other representative DEECs were also defined based on statistical or deterministic approaches. (authors)« less

NasoNet, modeling the spread of nasopharyngeal cancer with networks of probabilistic events in discrete time.

PubMed

Galán, S F; Aguado, F; Díez, F J; Mira, J

2002-07-01

The spread of cancer is a non-deterministic dynamic process. As a consequence, the design of an assistant system for the diagnosis and prognosis of the extent of a cancer should be based on a representation method that deals with both uncertainty and time. The ultimate goal is to know the stage of development of a cancer in a patient before selecting the appropriate treatment. A network of probabilistic events in discrete time (NPEDT) is a type of Bayesian network for temporal reasoning that models the causal mechanisms associated with the time evolution of a process. This paper describes NasoNet, a system that applies NPEDTs to the diagnosis and prognosis of nasopharyngeal cancer. We have made use of temporal noisy gates to model the dynamic causal interactions that take place in the domain. The methodology we describe is general enough to be applied to any other type of cancer.

Probabilistic retinal vessel segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chang-Hua; Agam, Gady

2007-03-01

Optic fundus assessment is widely used for diagnosing vascular and non-vascular pathology. Inspection of the retinal vasculature may reveal hypertension, diabetes, arteriosclerosis, cardiovascular disease and stroke. Due to various imaging conditions retinal images may be degraded. Consequently, the enhancement of such images and vessels in them is an important task with direct clinical applications. We propose a novel technique for vessel enhancement in retinal images that is capable of enhancing vessel junctions in addition to linear vessel segments. This is an extension of vessel filters we have previously developed for vessel enhancement in thoracic CT scans. The proposed approach is based on probabilistic models which can discern vessels and junctions. Evaluation shows the proposed filter is better than several known techniques and is comparable to the state of the art when evaluated on a standard dataset. A ridge-based vessel tracking process is applied on the enhanced image to demonstrate the effectiveness of the enhancement filter.

Challenge and Error: Critical Events and Attention-Related Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheyne, James Allan; Carriere, Jonathan S. A.; Solman, Grayden J. F.; Smilek, Daniel

2011-01-01

Attention lapses resulting from reactivity to task challenges and their consequences constitute a pervasive factor affecting everyday performance errors and accidents. A bidirectional model of attention lapses (error [image omitted] attention-lapse: Cheyne, Solman, Carriere, & Smilek, 2009) argues that errors beget errors by generating attention…

The Role of Spatial Disorientation in Fatal General Aviation Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scheuring, RIchard

2005-01-01

In-flight Spatial Disorientation (SD) in pilots is a serious threat to aviation safety. Indeed, SD may play a much larger role in aviation accidents than the approximate 6-8% reported by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) each year, because some accidents coded by the NTSB as aircraft control-not maintained (ACNM) may actually result from SD. The purpose of this study is to determine whether SD is underestimated as a cause of fatal general aviation (GA) accidents in the NTSB database. Fatal GA airplane accidents occurring between January 1995 and December 1999 were reviewed from the NTSB aviation accident database. Cases coded as ACNM or SD as the probable cause were selected for review by a panel of aerospace medicine specialists. Using a rating scale, each rater was instructed to determine if SD was the probable cause of the accident. Agreement between the raters and agreement between the raters and the NTSB were evaluated by Kappa statistics. The raters agreed that 11 out of 20 (55%) accidents coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD (p less than 0.05). Agreement between the raters and the NTSB did not reach significance (p greater than 0.05). The 95% C.I. for the sampling population estimated that between 33-77% of cases that the NTSB identified as ACNM could be identified by aerospace medicine experts as SD. Aerospace medicine specialists agreed that some cases coded by the NTSB as ACNM were probably caused by SD. Consequently, a larger number of accidents may be caused by the pilot succumbing to SD than indicated in the NTSB database. This new information should encourage regulating agencies to insure that pilots receive SD recognition training, enabling them to take appropriate corrective actions during flight. This could lead to new training standards, ultimately saving lives among GA airplane pilots.

Lessons Learned Through the Follow-up of the Long-Term Effects of Over-Exposure to an Ir192 Industrial Radiography Source in Bangladesh

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jalil, A.; Rabbani, G.; Hossain, M. K.

2003-02-24

An industrial radiographer was accidentally over-exposed while taking the radiograph of weld-joints of gas pipe-lines in 1985 in Bangladesh. Symptoms of high radiation exposure occurred immediately after the accident and skin erythema developed leading to progressive tissue deterioration. The consequences of this over-exposure is being followed up to assess the long-term effects of ionizing radiation on the victim. Progressive tissue deteriorations have already led to multiple surgeries and successive amputations of the finger-tips so far. Lessons learned from this accident are also reported in this paper.

Severe Accident Sequence Analysis Program: Anticipated transient without scram simulations for Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dallman, R J; Gottula, R C; Holcomb, E E

1987-05-01

An analysis of five anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) was conducted at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). The five detailed deterministic simulations of postulated ATWS sequences were initiated from a main steamline isolation valve (MSIV) closure. The subject of the analysis was the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1, a boiling water reactor (BWR) of the BWR/4 product line with a Mark I containment. The simulations yielded insights to the possible consequences resulting from a MSIV closure ATWS. An evaluation of the effects of plant safety systems and operator actions on accident progression and mitigation is presented.

[Work accidents and automatic circuit reclosers in the electricity sector: beyond the immediate causes].

PubMed

Silva, Alessandro Jose Nunes da; Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz de; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; Mendes, Renata Wey Berti; Hurtado, Sandra Lorena Beltran

2018-05-10

The Brazilian electricity sector has recorded high work-related mortality rates that have been associated with outsourcing, used to cut costs. In order to decrease the power outage time for consumers, the industry adopted the automatic circuit recloser as the technical solution. The device has hazardous implications for maintenance workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the origins and consequences of work accidents in power systems with automatic circuit recloser, using the Accident Analysis and Prevention (AAP) model. The AAP model was used to investigate two work accidents, aimed to explore the events' organizational origins. Case 1 - when changing a deenergized secondary line, a worker received a shock from the energized primary cable (13.8kV). The system reclosed three times, causing severe injury to the worker (amputation of a lower limb). Case 2 - a fatal work accident occurred during installation of a new crosshead on a partially insulated energized line. The tip of a metal cross arm section strap touched the energized secondary line and electrocuted the maintenance operator. The circuit breaker component of the automatic circuit recloser failed. The analyses revealed how business management logic can participate in the root causes of work accidents through failures in maintenance management, outsourced workforce management, and especially safety management in systems with reclosers. Decisions to adopt automation to guarantee power distribution should not overlook the risks to workers in overhead power lines or fail to acknowledge the importance of ensuring safe conditions.

Probabilistic assessment of landslide tsunami hazard for the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pampell-Manis, A.; Horrillo, J.; Shigihara, Y.; Parambath, L.

2016-01-01

The devastating consequences of recent tsunamis affecting Indonesia and Japan have prompted a scientific response to better assess unexpected tsunami hazards. Although much uncertainty exists regarding the recurrence of large-scale tsunami events in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), geological evidence indicates that a tsunami is possible and would most likely come from a submarine landslide triggered by an earthquake. This study customizes for the GoM a first-order probabilistic landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is employed to determine landslide configurations based on distributions obtained from observational submarine mass failure (SMF) data. Our MCS approach incorporates a Cholesky decomposition method for correlated landslide size parameters to capture correlations seen in the data as well as uncertainty inherent in these events. Slope stability analyses are performed using landslide and sediment properties and regional seismic loading to determine landslide configurations which fail and produce a tsunami. The probability of each tsunamigenic failure is calculated based on the joint probability of slope failure and probability of the triggering earthquake. We are thus able to estimate sizes and return periods for probabilistic maximum credible landslide scenarios. We find that the Cholesky decomposition approach generates landslide parameter distributions that retain the trends seen in observational data, improving the statistical validity and relevancy of the MCS technique in the context of landslide tsunami hazard assessment. Estimated return periods suggest that probabilistic maximum credible SMF events in the north and northwest GoM have a recurrence of 5000-8000 years, in agreement with age dates of observed deposits.

Multi-parametric variational data assimilation for hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarado-Montero, R.; Schwanenberg, D.; Krahe, P.; Helmke, P.; Klein, B.

2017-12-01

Ensemble forecasting is increasingly applied in flow forecasting systems to provide users with a better understanding of forecast uncertainty and consequently to take better-informed decisions. A common practice in probabilistic streamflow forecasting is to force deterministic hydrological model with an ensemble of numerical weather predictions. This approach aims at the representation of meteorological uncertainty but neglects uncertainty of the hydrological model as well as its initial conditions. Complementary approaches use probabilistic data assimilation techniques to receive a variety of initial states or represent model uncertainty by model pools instead of single deterministic models. This paper introduces a novel approach that extends a variational data assimilation based on Moving Horizon Estimation to enable the assimilation of observations into multi-parametric model pools. It results in a probabilistic estimate of initial model states that takes into account the parametric model uncertainty in the data assimilation. The assimilation technique is applied to the uppermost area of River Main in Germany. We use different parametric pools, each of them with five parameter sets, to assimilate streamflow data, as well as remotely sensed data from the H-SAF project. We assess the impact of the assimilation in the lead time performance of perfect forecasts (i.e. observed data as forcing variables) as well as deterministic and probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF. The multi-parametric assimilation shows an improvement of up to 23% for CRPS performance and approximately 20% in Brier Skill Scores with respect to the deterministic approach. It also improves the skill of the forecast in terms of rank histogram and produces a narrower ensemble spread.

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-01-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. PMID:26463656

Probabilistic regional climate projection in Japan using a regression model with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizaki, N. N.; Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.

2016-12-01

We have developed a statistical downscaling method for estimating probabilistic climate projection using CMIP5 multi general circulation models (GCMs). A regression model was established so that the combination of weights of GCMs reflects the characteristics of the variation of observations at each grid point. Cross validations were conducted to select GCMs and to evaluate the regression model to avoid multicollinearity. By using spatially high resolution observation system, we conducted statistically downscaled probabilistic climate projections with 20-km horizontal grid spacing. Root mean squared errors for monthly mean air surface temperature and precipitation estimated by the regression method were the smallest compared with the results derived from a simple ensemble mean of GCMs and a cumulative distribution function based bias correction method. Projected changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were basically similar to those of the simple ensemble mean of GCMs. Mean precipitation was generally projected to increase associated with increased temperature and consequent increased moisture content in the air. Weakening of the winter monsoon may affect precipitation decrease in some areas. Temperature increase in excess of 4 K was expected in most areas of Japan in the end of 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario. The estimated probability of monthly precipitation exceeding 300 mm would increase around the Pacific side during the summer and the Japan Sea side during the winter season. This probabilistic climate projection based on the statistical method can be expected to bring useful information to the impact studies and risk assessments.

Great Balls of Fire: A probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard related to ballistics - A case study at La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biass, Sébastien; Falcone, Jean-Luc; Bonadonna, Costanza; Di Traglia, Federico; Pistolesi, Marco; Rosi, Mauro; Lestuzzi, Pierino

2016-10-01

We present a probabilistic approach to quantify the hazard posed by volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) and their potential impact on the built environment. A model named Great Balls of Fire (GBF) is introduced to describe ballistic trajectories of VBPs accounting for a variable drag coefficient and topography. It relies on input parameters easily identifiable in the field and is designed to model large numbers of VBPs stochastically. Associated functions come with the GBF code to post-process model outputs into a comprehensive probabilistic hazard assessment for VBP impacts. Outcomes include probability maps to exceed given thresholds of kinetic energies at impact, hazard curves and probabilistic isoenergy maps. Probabilities are calculated either on equally-sized pixels or zones of interest. The approach is calibrated, validated and applied to La Fossa volcano, Vulcano Island (Italy). We constructed a generic eruption scenario based on stratigraphic studies and numerical inversions of the 1888-1890 long-lasting Vulcanian cycle of La Fossa. Results suggest a ~ 10- 2% probability of occurrence of VBP impacts with kinetic energies ≤ 104 J at the touristic locality of Porto. In parallel, the vulnerability to roof perforation was estimated by combining field observations and published literature, allowing for a first estimate of the potential impact of VBPs during future Vulcanian eruptions. Results indicate a high physical vulnerability to the VBP hazard, and, consequently, half of the building stock having a ≥ 2.5 × 10- 3% probability of roof perforation.

An uncertainty analysis of the hydrogen source term for a station blackout accident in Sequoyah using MELCOR 1.8.5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gauntt, Randall O.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Wagner, Kenneth Charles

2014-03-01

A methodology for using the MELCOR code with the Latin Hypercube Sampling method was developed to estimate uncertainty in various predicted quantities such as hydrogen generation or release of fission products under severe accident conditions. In this case, the emphasis was on estimating the range of hydrogen sources in station blackout conditions in the Sequoyah Ice Condenser plant, taking into account uncertainties in the modeled physics known to affect hydrogen generation. The method uses user-specified likelihood distributions for uncertain model parameters, which may include uncertainties of a stochastic nature, to produce a collection of code calculations, or realizations, characterizing themore » range of possible outcomes. Forty MELCOR code realizations of Sequoyah were conducted that included 10 uncertain parameters, producing a range of in-vessel hydrogen quantities. The range of total hydrogen produced was approximately 583kg 131kg. Sensitivity analyses revealed expected trends with respected to the parameters of greatest importance, however, considerable scatter in results when plotted against any of the uncertain parameters was observed, with no parameter manifesting dominant effects on hydrogen generation. It is concluded that, with respect to the physics parameters investigated, in order to further reduce predicted hydrogen uncertainty, it would be necessary to reduce all physics parameter uncertainties similarly, bearing in mind that some parameters are inherently uncertain within a range. It is suspected that some residual uncertainty associated with modeling complex, coupled and synergistic phenomena, is an inherent aspect of complex systems and cannot be reduced to point value estimates. The probabilistic analyses such as the one demonstrated in this work are important to properly characterize response of complex systems such as severe accident progression in nuclear power plants.« less

Drinking Problems of Native American and White Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forslund, Morris A.

1979-01-01

Found that American Indian youths tend to experience more serious consequences of drinking than do White youths from the same area with regard to feeling high, getting drunk, passing out, suffering loss of memory, being stopped by police, having automobile accidents, and getting into trouble with parents. (Author/BEF)

Chemical Safety Information, Site Security and Fuels Regulatory Relief Act: Public Distribution of Off-Site Consequence Analysis Information Fact Sheet

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Based on assessments of increased risk of terrorist/criminal activity, EPA and DOJ have issued a rule that allows public access to OCA information in ways that are designed to minimize likelihood of chemical accidents and public harm.

49 CFR 195.48 - Scope.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Scope. 195.48 Section 195.48 Transportation Other... Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.48 Scope. This Subpart prescribes... report form PHMSA F 7000-1.1 associated with IM or high consequence areas. [76 FR 25588, May 5, 2011] ...

77 FR 55864 - Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses and Combined Licenses Involving...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-11

.... ML111940200), which approved the RBS Cyber Security Plan and associated implementation milestone schedule. The Cyber Security Plan Implementation Schedule contained in the licensee's letter dated April 4, 2011... consequences of an accident previously evaluated? Response: No. The proposed change to the Cyber Security Plan...

The Principles and Implications of Nuclear Winter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grover, Herbert D.

1985-01-01

The ecological consequences of nuclear war are discussed. Ultimately, the solution to the nuclear dilemma lies in education. We must come to thoroughly understand the odds we face and must gain control of our destiny from accidents of technological origin as well as from misguided action by any government. (RM)

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

Fatal accidents following changes in daylight savings time: the American experience.

PubMed

Varughese; Allen

2001-01-01

Objective: This study examines specific hypotheses that both sleep loss and behavioral changes occurring with the time shifts for Daylight Savings Time (DST) significantly effect the number of fatal traffic accidents in the United States of America.Background: It has been reported that there is a significant increase in the number of automobile accidents in the spring shift to DST due to the loss of 1 h of sleep. But the extra hour gained at night with the shift from DST in the fall has been variably reported to be associated with increases and decreases in the number of automobile accidents which may reflect either behavioral anticipation with an extended late night prior to the change or the benefit of extra sleep after the change.Methods: Data from 21 years of United States' fatal automobile accidents were gathered. The mean number of accidents on the days at the time of the shifts (Saturday, Sunday and Monday) was compared to the average of the corresponding mean number of accidents on the matching day of the weeks preceding and following the shift. This was repeated for each DST shift. The number of accidents for a particular shift was also correlated with the year of the accidents.Results: There was a significant increase in accidents for the Monday immediately following the spring shift to DST (t=1.92, P=0.034). There was also a significant increase in number of accidents on the Sunday of the fall shift from DST (P<0.002). No significant changes were observed for the other days. A significant negative correlation with the year was found between the number of accidents on the Saturdays and Sundays but not Mondays.Conclusions: The sleep deprivation on the Monday following shift to DST in the spring results in a small increase in fatal accidents. The behavioral adaptation anticipating the longer day on Sunday of the shift from DST in the fall leads to an increased number of accidents suggesting an increase in late night (early Sunday morning) driving when traffic related fatalities are high possibly related to alcohol consumption and driving while sleepy. Public health educators should probably consider issuing warnings both about the effects of sleep loss in the spring shift and possible behaviors such as staying out later, particularly when consuming alcohol in the fall shift. Sleep clinicians should be aware that health consequences from forced changes in the circadian patterns resulting from DST come not only from physiological adjustments but also from behavioral responses to forced circadian changes.

Assessment of potential doses to workers during postulated accident conditions at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoover, M.D.; Farrell, R.F.; Newton, G.J.

1995-12-01

The recent 1995 WIPP Safety Analysis Report (SAR) Update provided detailed analyses of potential radiation doses to members of the public at the site boundary during postulated accident scenarios at the U.S. Department of Energy`s Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The SAR Update addressed the complete spectrum of potential accidents associated with handling and emplacing transuranic waste at WIPP, including damage to waste drums from fires, punctures, drops, and other disruptions. The report focused on the adequacy of the multiple layers of safety practice ({open_quotes}defense-in-depth{close_quotes}) at WIPP, which are designed to (1) reduce the likelihood of accidents and (2) limitmore » the consequences of those accidents. The safeguards which contribute to defense-in-depth at WIPP include a substantial array of inherent design features, engineered controls, and administrative procedures. The SAR Update confirmed that the defense-in-depth at WIPP is adequate to assure the protection of the public and environment. As a supplement to the 1995 SAR Update, we have conducted additional analyses to confirm that these controls will also provide adequate protection to workers at the WIPP. The approaches and results of the worker dose assessment are summarized here. In conformance with the guidance of DOE Standard 3009-94, we emphasize that use of these evaluation guidelines is not intended to imply that these numbers constitute acceptable limits for worker exposures under accident conditions. However, in conjunction with the extensive safety assessment in the 1995 SAR Update, these results indicate that the Carlsbad Area Office strategy for the assessment of hazards and accidents assures the protection of workers, members of the public, and the environment.« less

Risk of Motor Vehicle Accidents Related to Sleepiness at the Wheel: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Bioulac, Stéphanie; Franchi, Jean-Arthur Micoulaud; Arnaud, Mickael; Sagaspe, Patricia; Moore, Nicholas; Salvo, Francesco; Philip, Pierre

2017-10-01

Sleepiness at the wheel is widely believed to be a cause of motor vehicle accidents. Nevertheless, a systematic review of studies investigating this relationship has not yet been published. The objective of this study was to quantify the relationship between sleepiness at the wheel and motor vehicle accidents. A systematic review was performed using Medline, Scopus, and ISI Web of Science. The outcome measure of interest was motor vehicle accident defined as involving four- or two-wheeled vehicles in road traffic, professional and nonprofessional drivers, with or without objective consequences. The exposure was sleepiness at the wheel defined as self-reported sleepiness at the wheel. Studies were included if they provided adjusted risk estimates of motor vehicle accidents related to sleepiness at the wheel. Risk estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were extracted and pooled as odds ratios (ORs) using a random-effect model. Heterogeneity was quantified using Q statistics and the I2 index. The potential causes of heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regressions. Ten cross-sectional studies (51,520 participants), six case-control studies (4904 participants), and one cohort study (13,674 participants) were included. Sleepiness at the wheel was associated with an increased risk of motor vehicle accidents (pooled OR 2.51 [95% CI 1.87; 3.39]). A significant heterogeneity was found between the individual risk estimates (Q = 93.21; I2 = 83%). Sleepiness at the wheel increases the risk of motor vehicle accidents and should be considered when investigating fitness to drive. Further studies are required to explore the nature of this relationship. PROSPERO 2015 CRD42015024805. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Safety Analysis Code System, Version 5

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fanning, T. H.; Brunett, A. J.; Sumner, T.

The SAS4A/SASSYS-1 computer code is developed by Argonne National Laboratory for thermal, hydraulic, and neutronic analysis of power and flow transients in liquidmetal- cooled nuclear reactors (LMRs). SAS4A was developed to analyze severe core disruption accidents with coolant boiling and fuel melting and relocation, initiated by a very low probability coincidence of an accident precursor and failure of one or more safety systems. SASSYS-1, originally developed to address loss-of-decay-heat-removal accidents, has evolved into a tool for margin assessment in design basis accident (DBA) analysis and for consequence assessment in beyond-design-basis accident (BDBA) analysis. SAS4A contains detailed, mechanistic models of transientmore » thermal, hydraulic, neutronic, and mechanical phenomena to describe the response of the reactor core, its coolant, fuel elements, and structural members to accident conditions. The core channel models in SAS4A provide the capability to analyze the initial phase of core disruptive accidents, through coolant heat-up and boiling, fuel element failure, and fuel melting and relocation. Originally developed to analyze oxide fuel clad with stainless steel, the models in SAS4A have been extended and specialized to metallic fuel with advanced alloy cladding. SASSYS-1 provides the capability to perform a detailed thermal/hydraulic simulation of the primary and secondary sodium coolant circuits and the balance-ofplant steam/water circuit. These sodium and steam circuit models include component models for heat exchangers, pumps, valves, turbines, and condensers, and thermal/hydraulic models of pipes and plena. SASSYS-1 also contains a plant protection and control system modeling capability, which provides digital representations of reactor, pump, and valve controllers and their response to input signal changes.« less

Circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells in patients affected by Chornobyl accident.

PubMed

Bilko, N M; Dyagil, I S; Russu, I Z; Bilko, D I

2016-12-01

High radiation sensitivity of stem cells and their ability to accumulate sublethal radiation damage provides the basis for investigation of hematopoietic progenitors using in vivo culture methodology. Unique samples of peripheral blood and bone marrow were derived from the patients affected by Chornobyl accident during liquidation campaign. To investigate functional activity of circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells from peripheral blood and bone marrow of cleanup workers in early and remote periods after the accident at Chornobyl nuclear power plant (CNPP). The assessment of the functional activity of circulating hematopoietic progenitor cells was performed in samples of peripheral blood and bone marrow of 46 cleanup workers, who were treated in the National Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine alongside with 35 non radiated patients, who served as a control. Work was performed by culturing peripheral blood and bone marrow mononuclear cells in the original gel diffusion capsules, implanted into the peritoneal cavity of CBA mice. It was shown that hematopoietic progenitor cells could be identified in the peripheral blood of liquidators of CNPP accident. At the same time the number of functionally active progenitor cells of the bone marrow was significantly decreased and during the next 10 years after the accident, counts of circulating progenitor cells in the peripheral blood as well as functionally active hematopoietic cells in bone marrow returned to normal levels. It was shown that hematopoietic progenitor cells are detected not only in the bone marrow but also in the peripheral blood of liquidators as a consequence of radiation exposure associated with CNPP accident. This article is a part of a Special Issue entitled "The Chornobyl Nuclear Accident: Thirty Years After".

RAVEN: a GUI and an Artificial Intelligence Engine in a Dynamic PRA Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; A. Alfonsi

Increases in computational power and pressure for more accurate simulations and estimations of accident scenario consequences are driving the need for Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) [1] of very complex models. While more sophisticated algorithms and computational power address the back end of this challenge, the front end is still handled by engineers that need to extract meaningful information from the large amount of data and build these complex models. Compounding this problem is the difficulty in knowledge transfer and retention, and the increasing speed of software development. The above-described issues would have negatively impacted deployment of the new highmore » fidelity plant simulator RELAP-7 (Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program) at Idaho National Laboratory. Therefore, RAVEN that was initially focused to be the plant controller for RELAP-7 will help mitigate future RELAP-7 software engineering risks. In order to accomplish this task, Reactor Analysis and Virtual Control Environment (RAVEN) has been designed to provide an easy to use Graphical User Interface (GUI) for building plant models and to leverage artificial intelligence algorithms in order to reduce computational time, improve results, and help the user to identify the behavioral pattern of the Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). In this paper we will present the GUI implementation and its current capability status. We will also introduce the support vector machine algorithms and show our evaluation of their potentiality in increasing the accuracy and reducing the computational costs of PRA analysis. In this evaluation we will refer to preliminary studies performed under the Risk Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) project of the Light Water Reactors Sustainability (LWRS) campaign [3]. RISMC simulation needs and algorithm testing are currently used as a guidance to prioritize RAVEN developments relevant to PRA.« less

Engineering in an age of anxiety

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weinberg, A.M.

Public fears of nuclear or chemical accidents should challenge engineers to build systems that are inherently safe. Much of our national anxiety focuses on modern technology. This anxiety places constraints on our technologies. Probabilistic risk assessment (PBA) has become an accepted tool for determining the safety of a device. Although PBA is widely accepted by engineers, it will not allay the public's anxieties. To concede that a technology has the potential for causing a major disaster, even if the probability of occurrence is minute, is unacceptable in the age of anxiety. The search for inherent safety concepts, that - informedmore » skeptics - and the public will accept, continues. The greenhouse effect may be decisive in spurring the demand for inherently safe nuclear technology. Ultimately what the public requires by way of assurance may well depend on the alternatives available. 11 refs.« less

The Development of Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Simulations for Inclusion in Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jeffrey C. Joe; Diego Mandelli; Ronald L. Boring

2015-07-01

The United States Department of Energy is sponsoring the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, which has the overall objective of supporting the near-term and the extended operation of commercial nuclear power plants. One key research and development (R&D) area in this program is the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway, which combines probabilistic risk simulation with thermohydraulic simulation codes to define and manage safety margins. The R&D efforts to date, however, have not included robust simulations of human operators, and how the reliability of human performance or lack thereof (i.e., human errors) can affect risk-margins and plant performance. This paper describesmore » current and planned research efforts to address the absence of robust human reliability simulations and thereby increase the fidelity of simulated accident scenarios.« less

Importance Of Quality Control in Reducing System Risk, a Lesson Learned From The Shuttle and a Recommendation for Future Launch Vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safie, Fayssal M.; Messer, Bradley P.

2006-01-01

This paper presents lessons learned from the Space Shuttle return to flight experience and the importance of these lessons learned in the development of new the NASA Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV). Specifically, the paper discusses the relationship between process control and system risk, and the importance of process control in improving space vehicle flight safety. It uses the External Tank (ET) Thermal Protection System (TPS) experience and lessons learned from the redesign and process enhancement activities performed in preparation for Return to Flight after the Columbia accident. The paper also, discusses in some details, the Probabilistic engineering physics based risk assessment performed by the Shuttle program to evaluate the impact of TPS failure on system risk and the application of the methodology to the CLV.

Nuclear risk analysis of the Ulysses mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartram, Bart W.; Vaughan, Frank R.; Englehart, Richard W.

An account is given of the method used to quantify the risks accruing to the use of a radioisotope thermoelectric generator fueled by Pu-238 dioxide aboard the Space Shuttle-launched Ulysses mission. After using a Monte Carlo technique to develop probability distributions for the radiological consequences of a range of accident scenarios throughout the mission, factors affecting those consequences are identified in conjunction with their probability distributions. The functional relationship among all the factors is then established, and probability distributions for all factor effects are combined by means of a Monte Carlo technique.

Design of a smart, survivable sensor system for rapid transit applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogan, J.R.; Mitchell, J.L.

1994-08-01

An application of smart sensor technology developed by Sandia National Laboratories has been proposed for real-time monitoring and tracking in the transportation industry. Its primary purpose is to reduce operating costs by improving preventative maintenance scheduling, reducing the number, severity and consequence of accidents and by reducing losses due to theft. The concept uses a strap-on sensor package, the Green Box, that can be attached to any vehicle. The Green Box is designed as a valued-added component, integrated into existing transportation industry systems and standards. The device, designed to provide advanced warning of component failures, would be capable of survivingmore » most typical accidents. In an accident, the system would send a distress signal notifying authorities of the location and condition of the cargo; permitting them to respond in the most effective manner. In addition, the Green Box is adaptable for use as a notification/locator system to enhance the security of operators and passengers for various modes of public transportation. The modular architecture which facilitates system integration in a number of different applications is discussed. A test plan for evaluating performance in both normal and abnormal operating and accident conditions is described.« less

A new approach to road accident rescue.

PubMed

Morales, Alejandro; González-Aguilera, Diego; López, Alfonso I; Gutiérrez, Miguel A

2016-01-01

This article develops and validates a new methodology and tool for rescue assistance in traffic accidents, with the aim of improving its efficiency and safety in the evacuation of people, reducing the number of victims in road accidents. Different tests supported by professionals and experts have been designed under different circumstances and with different categories of damaged vehicles coming from real accidents and simulated trapped victims in order to calibrate and refine the proposed methodology and tool. To validate this new approach, a tool called App_Rescue has been developed. This tool is based on the use of a computer system that allows an efficient access to the technical information of the vehicle and sanitary information of the common passengers. The time spent during rescue using the standard protocol and the proposed method was compared. This rescue assistance system allows us to make vital information accessible in posttrauma care services, improving the effectiveness of interventions by the emergency services, reducing the rescue time and therefore minimizing the consequences involved and the number of victims. This could often mean saving lives. In the different simulated rescue operations, the rescue time has been reduced an average of 14%.

Injuries and absenteeism among motorcycle taxi drivers who are victims of traffic accidents.

PubMed

Barbosa, Kevan G N; Lucas-Neto, Alfredo; Gama, Bruno D; Lima-Neto, Jose C; Lucas, Rilva Suely C C; d'Ávila, Sérgio

2014-08-01

Facial injuries frequently occur in traffic accidents involving motorcycles. The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of facial injuries among motorcycle drivers who perform motorcycle taxi service. The study design was cross-sectional. A total of 210 participants who served as motorcycle taxi drivers in a city in northeastern Brazil completed a survey concerning their experience of accidents involving facial injuries and consequent hospitalization and absenteeism from work. The motorcycle drivers included in the study were randomly selected from a list provided by the city. Out of the respondents, 165 (78.6%) who were involved in traffic accidents in the last 12 months, 15 (9.1%) reported facial injuries. The types of facial injury most frequently reported involved soft tissues (n = 8; 53.3%), followed by simple fracture (n = 4; 26.7%) and dentoalveolar fracture (n = 3; 20%). We found an association between facial injuries and absenteeism, as well as an association between the presence of facial injury and the need for hospitalization for a period of 2 days or more. Respondents reported that they had accidents, but due to the use of full face motorcycle helmet the number of facial injuries was low. For most of them, absenteeism was observed for a period of one month or more. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

A study of discrete control signal fault conditions in the shuttle DPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddi, S. S.; Retter, C. T.

1976-01-01

An analysis of the effects of discrete failures on the data processing subsystem is presented. A functional description of each discrete together with a list of software modules that use this discrete are included. A qualitative description of the consequences that may ensue due to discrete failures is given followed by a probabilistic reliability analysis of the data processing subsystem. Based on the investigation conducted, recommendations were made to improve the reliability of the subsystem.

Estimation of health-care costs for work-related injuries in the Mexican Institute of Social Security.

PubMed

Carlos-Rivera, Fernando; Aguilar-Madrid, Guadalupe; Gómez-Montenegro, Pablo Anaya; Juárez-Pérez, Cuauhtémoc A; Sánchez-Román, Francisco Raúl; Durcudoy Montandon, Jaqueline E A; Borja-Aburto, Víctor Hugo

2009-03-01

Data on the economic consequences of occupational injuries is scarce in developing countries which prevents the recognition of their economic and social consequences. This study assess the direct heath care costs of work-related accidents in the Mexican Institute of Social Security, the largest health care institution in Latin America, which covered 12,735,856 workers and their families in 2005. We estimated the cost of treatment for 295,594 officially reported occupational injuries nation wide. A group of medical experts devised treatment algorithms to quantify resource utilization for occupational injuries to which unit costs were applied. Total costs were estimated as the product of the cost per illness and the severity weighted incidence of occupational accidents. Occupational injury rate was 2.9 per 100 workers. Average medical care cost per case was $2,059 USD. The total cost of the health care of officially recognized injured workers was $753,420,222 USD. If injury rate is corrected for underreporting, the cost for formal injured workers is 791,216,460. If the same costs are applied for informal workers, approximately half of the working population in Mexico, the cost of healthcare for occupational injuries is about 1% of the gross domestic product. Health care costs of occupational accidents are similar to the economic direct expenditures to compensate death and disability in the social security system in Mexico. However, indirect costs might be as important as direct costs.

Quantitative Risk Mapping of Urban Gas Pipeline Networks Using GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azari, P.; Karimi, M.

2017-09-01

Natural gas is considered an important source of energy in the world. By increasing growth of urbanization, urban gas pipelines which transmit natural gas from transmission pipelines to consumers, will become a dense network. The increase in the density of urban pipelines will influence probability of occurring bad accidents in urban areas. These accidents have a catastrophic effect on people and their property. Within the next few years, risk mapping will become an important component in urban planning and management of large cities in order to decrease the probability of accident and to control them. Therefore, it is important to assess risk values and determine their location on urban map using an appropriate method. In the history of risk analysis of urban natural gas pipeline networks, the pipelines has always been considered one by one and their density in urban area has not been considered. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of several pipelines on the risk value of a specific grid point. This paper outlines a quantitative risk assessment method for analysing the risk of urban natural gas pipeline networks. It consists of two main parts: failure rate calculation where the EGIG historical data are used and fatal length calculation that involves calculation of gas release and fatality rate of consequences. We consider jet fire, fireball and explosion for investigating the consequences of gas pipeline failure. The outcome of this method is an individual risk and is shown as a risk map.

Reported radiation overexposure accidents worldwide, 1980-2013: a systematic review.

PubMed

Coeytaux, Karen; Bey, Eric; Christensen, Doran; Glassman, Erik S; Murdock, Becky; Doucet, Christelle

2015-01-01

Radiation overexposure accidents are rare but can have severe long-term health consequences. Although underreporting can be an issue, some extensive literature reviews of reported radiation overexposures have been performed and constitute a sound basis for conclusions on general trends. Building further on this work, we performed a systematic review that completes previous reviews and provides new information on characteristics and trends of reported radiation accidents. We searched publications and reports from MEDLINE, EMBASE, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Radiation Protection Association, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training Site radiation accident registry over 1980-2013. We retrieved the reported overexposure cases, systematically extracted selected information, and performed a descriptive analysis. 297 out of 5189 publications and reports and 194 records from the REAC/TS registry met our eligibility criteria. From these, 634 reported radiation accidents were retrieved, involving 2390 overexposed people, of whom 190 died from their overexposure. The number of reported cases has decreased for all types of radiation use, but the medical one. 64% of retrieved overexposure cases occurred with the use of radiation therapy and fluoroscopy. Additionally, the types of reported accidents differed significantly across regions. This review provides an updated and broader view of reported radiation overexposures. It suggests an overall decline in reported radiation overexposures over 1980-2013. The greatest share of reported overexposures occurred in the medical fields using radiation therapy and fluoroscopy; this larger number of reported overexposures accidents indicates the potential need for enhanced quality assurance programs. Our data also highlights variations in characteristics of reported accidents by region. The main limitation of this study is the likely underreporting of radiation overexposures. Ensuring a comprehensive monitoring and reporting of radiation overexposures is paramount to inform and tailor prevention interventions to local needs.

Reported Radiation Overexposure Accidents Worldwide, 1980-2013: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Coeytaux, Karen; Bey, Eric; Christensen, Doran; Glassman, Erik S.; Murdock, Becky; Doucet, Christelle

2015-01-01

Background Radiation overexposure accidents are rare but can have severe long-term health consequences. Although underreporting can be an issue, some extensive literature reviews of reported radiation overexposures have been performed and constitute a sound basis for conclusions on general trends. Building further on this work, we performed a systematic review that completes previous reviews and provides new information on characteristics and trends of reported radiation accidents. Methods We searched publications and reports from MEDLINE, EMBASE, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the International Radiation Protection Association, the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Radiation Emergency Assistance Center/Training Site radiation accident registry over 1980-2013. We retrieved the reported overexposure cases, systematically extracted selected information, and performed a descriptive analysis. Results 297 out of 5189 publications and reports and 194 records from the REAC/TS registry met our eligibility criteria. From these, 634 reported radiation accidents were retrieved, involving 2390 overexposed people, of whom 190 died from their overexposure. The number of reported cases has decreased for all types of radiation use, but the medical one. 64% of retrieved overexposure cases occurred with the use of radiation therapy and fluoroscopy. Additionally, the types of reported accidents differed significantly across regions. Conclusions This review provides an updated and broader view of reported radiation overexposures. It suggests an overall decline in reported radiation overexposures over 1980-2013. The greatest share of reported overexposures occurred in the medical fields using radiation therapy and fluoroscopy; this larger number of reported overexposures accidents indicates the potential need for enhanced quality assurance programs. Our data also highlights variations in characteristics of reported accidents by region. The main limitation of this study is the likely underreporting of radiation overexposures. Ensuring a comprehensive monitoring and reporting of radiation overexposures is paramount to inform and tailor prevention interventions to local needs. PMID:25789482

Development of probabilistic internal dosimetry computer code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noh, Siwan; Kwon, Tae-Eun; Lee, Jai-Ki

2017-02-01

Internal radiation dose assessment involves biokinetic models, the corresponding parameters, measured data, and many assumptions. Every component considered in the internal dose assessment has its own uncertainty, which is propagated in the intake activity and internal dose estimates. For research or scientific purposes, and for retrospective dose reconstruction for accident scenarios occurring in workplaces having a large quantity of unsealed radionuclides, such as nuclear power plants, nuclear fuel cycle facilities, and facilities in which nuclear medicine is practiced, a quantitative uncertainty assessment of the internal dose is often required. However, no calculation tools or computer codes that incorporate all the relevant processes and their corresponding uncertainties, i.e., from the measured data to the committed dose, are available. Thus, the objective of the present study is to develop an integrated probabilistic internal-dose-assessment computer code. First, the uncertainty components in internal dosimetry are identified, and quantitative uncertainty data are collected. Then, an uncertainty database is established for each component. In order to propagate these uncertainties in an internal dose assessment, a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment system that employs the Bayesian and Monte Carlo methods. Based on the developed system, we developed a probabilistic internal-dose-assessment code by using MATLAB so as to estimate the dose distributions from the measured data with uncertainty. Using the developed code, we calculated the internal dose distribution and statistical values ( e.g. the 2.5th, 5th, median, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles) for three sample scenarios. On the basis of the distributions, we performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the influence of each component on the resulting dose in order to identify the major component of the uncertainty in a bioassay. The results of this study can be applied to various situations. In cases of severe internal exposure, the causation probability of a deterministic health effect can be derived from the dose distribution, and a high statistical value ( e.g., the 95th percentile of the distribution) can be used to determine the appropriate intervention. The distribution-based sensitivity analysis can also be used to quantify the contribution of each factor to the dose uncertainty, which is essential information for reducing and optimizing the uncertainty in the internal dose assessment. Therefore, the present study can contribute to retrospective dose assessment for accidental internal exposure scenarios, as well as to internal dose monitoring optimization and uncertainty reduction.

Handling qualities related to stall/spin accidents of supersonic fighter aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, S. B.

1984-01-01

This paper reviews the handling qualities which influence the high angle of attack (AOA) behavior of supersonic fighter aircraft in order to obtain a clearer understanding of the causes of stall/spin accidents. The results show that, because modern fighters suffer more serious consequences when control is lost, good handling qualities are essential for safe operation at high AOA. Relaxed static stability used on some fighter aircraft can result in control problems at high AOA owing to inertia coupling and the difficulty of a recovery from a deep stall. Indications are that the use of departure/spin resistance and an automatic spin prevention system will greatly improve the safety record for modern supersonic fighters.

Aspects of the passenger airbag E.C.U. location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soica, A.

2016-08-01

Road accidents represent the dark side of road traffic, their consequences leading to material damage and often to vehicle occupant fatalities. Passive safety systems offer a high level of protection to vehicle occupants; yet, depending on a number of constructive factors and not only, these systems can not always ensure a high survival rate. The costs of road traffic accidents are to be borne by the whole society, with high amounts of money required. In this paper we analyze how the collision is felt in various points on the vehicle, at a given time and how this may affect the proper functioning of the passive safety systems, especially the airbag system.

[Rehabilitation of hand injured co-workers from the occupational medicine viewpoint (exemplified by a chassis and montage automobile industry].

PubMed

Harwerth, A

1997-07-01

The majority (about 25%) of work-related accidents involves injuries to the hands and fingers. Depending on type and severity of the injury, it can have profound consequences to an individual's professional future. Due to this basic insight, hand rehabilitation must include vocational rehabilitation.

76 FR 800 - Ameren Missouri, Combined License Application for Callaway Plant Unit 2; Environmental Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-06

... significantly increase the probability or consequences of accidents. No changes are being made in the types of effluents that may be released offsite. There is no significant increase in the amount of any effluent released offsite. There is no significant increase in occupational or public radiation exposure. Therefore...