Sample records for probabilistic security risk

  1. Aviation Security, Risk Assessment, and Risk Aversion for Public Decisionmaking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Mark G.; Mueller, John

    2013-01-01

    This paper estimates risk reductions for each layer of security designed to prevent commercial passenger airliners from being commandeered by terrorists, kept under control for some time, and then crashed into specific targets. Probabilistic methods are used to characterize the uncertainty of rates of deterrence, detection, and disruption, as well…

  2. Probabilistic risk analysis and terrorism risk.

    PubMed

    Ezell, Barry Charles; Bennett, Steven P; von Winterfeldt, Detlof; Sokolowski, John; Collins, Andrew J

    2010-04-01

    Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and the subsequent establishment of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS), considerable efforts have been made to estimate the risks of terrorism and the cost effectiveness of security policies to reduce these risks. DHS, industry, and the academic risk analysis communities have all invested heavily in the development of tools and approaches that can assist decisionmakers in effectively allocating limited resources across the vast array of potential investments that could mitigate risks from terrorism and other threats to the homeland. Decisionmakers demand models, analyses, and decision support that are useful for this task and based on the state of the art. Since terrorism risk analysis is new, no single method is likely to meet this challenge. In this article we explore a number of existing and potential approaches for terrorism risk analysis, focusing particularly on recent discussions regarding the applicability of probabilistic and decision analytic approaches to bioterrorism risks and the Bioterrorism Risk Assessment methodology used by the DHS and criticized by the National Academies and others.

  3. Minimizing Expected Maximum Risk from Cyber-Attacks with Probabilistic Attack Success

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.; Nandi, Apurba; Medal, Hugh

    The goal of our work is to enhance network security by generating partial cut-sets, which are a subset of edges that remove paths from initially vulnerable nodes (initial security conditions) to goal nodes (critical assets), on an attack graph given costs for cutting an edge and a limited overall budget.

  4. Augmenting Probabilistic Risk Assesment with Malevolent Initiators

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

    2011-11-01

    As commonly practiced, the use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in nuclear power plants only considers accident initiators such as natural hazards, equipment failures, and human error. Malevolent initiators are ignored in PRA, but are considered the domain of physical security, which uses vulnerability assessment based on an officially specified threat (design basis threat). This paper explores the implications of augmenting and extending existing PRA models by considering new and modified scenarios resulting from malevolent initiators. Teaming the augmented PRA models with conventional vulnerability assessments can cost-effectively enhance security of a nuclear power plant. This methodology is useful for operatingmore » plants, as well as in the design of new plants. For the methodology, we have proposed an approach that builds on and extends the practice of PRA for nuclear power plants for security-related issues. Rather than only considering 'random' failures, we demonstrated a framework that is able to represent and model malevolent initiating events and associated plant impacts.« less

  5. Using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling for regulatory benefit-cost analysis: application to the Western hemisphere travel initiative in the land environment.

    PubMed

    Willis, Henry H; LaTourrette, Tom

    2008-04-01

    This article presents a framework for using probabilistic terrorism risk modeling in regulatory analysis. We demonstrate the framework with an example application involving a regulation under consideration, the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative for the Land Environment, (WHTI-L). First, we estimate annualized loss from terrorist attacks with the Risk Management Solutions (RMS) Probabilistic Terrorism Model. We then estimate the critical risk reduction, which is the risk-reducing effectiveness of WHTI-L needed for its benefit, in terms of reduced terrorism loss in the United States, to exceed its cost. Our analysis indicates that the critical risk reduction depends strongly not only on uncertainties in the terrorism risk level, but also on uncertainty in the cost of regulation and how casualties are monetized. For a terrorism risk level based on the RMS standard risk estimate, the baseline regulatory cost estimate for WHTI-L, and a range of casualty cost estimates based on the willingness-to-pay approach, our estimate for the expected annualized loss from terrorism ranges from $2.7 billion to $5.2 billion. For this range in annualized loss, the critical risk reduction for WHTI-L ranges from 7% to 13%. Basing results on a lower risk level that results in halving the annualized terrorism loss would double the critical risk reduction (14-26%), and basing the results on a higher risk level that results in a doubling of the annualized terrorism loss would cut the critical risk reduction in half (3.5-6.6%). Ideally, decisions about terrorism security regulations and policies would be informed by true benefit-cost analyses in which the estimated benefits are compared to costs. Such analyses for terrorism security efforts face substantial impediments stemming from the great uncertainty in the terrorist threat and the very low recurrence interval for large attacks. Several approaches can be used to estimate how a terrorism security program or regulation reduces the distribution of risks it is intended to manage. But, continued research to develop additional tools and data is necessary to support application of these approaches. These include refinement of models and simulations, engagement of subject matter experts, implementation of program evaluation, and estimating the costs of casualties from terrorism events.

  6. Protecting intellectual property in space; Proceedings of the Aerospace Computer Security Conference, McLean, VA, March 20, 1985

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    The primary purpose of the Aerospace Computer Security Conference was to bring together people and organizations which have a common interest in protecting intellectual property generated in space. Operational concerns are discussed, taking into account security implications of the space station information system, Space Shuttle security policies and programs, potential uses of probabilistic risk assessment techniques for space station development, key considerations in contingency planning for secure space flight ground control centers, a systematic method for evaluating security requirements compliance, and security engineering of secure ground stations. Subjects related to security technologies are also explored, giving attention to processing requirements of secure C3/I and battle management systems and the development of the Gemini trusted multiple microcomputer base, the Restricted Access Processor system as a security guard designed to protect classified information, and observations on local area network security.

  7. Overview of U.S. nuclear launch safety approval process, supporting launch vehicle databook and probabilistic risk assessment methods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reinhart, L. E.

    2001-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the U.S. space nuclear power system launch approval process as defined by the two separate requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and Presidential Directive/National Security Council Memorandum No. 25 (PD/NSC-25).

  8. The Epistemic Representation of Information Flow Security in Probabilistic Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-06-01

    The new characterization also means that our security crite- rion is expressible in a simpler logic and model. 1 Introduction Multilevel security is...ber generator) during its execution. Such probabilistic choices are useful in a multilevel security context for Supported by grants HKUST 608/94E from... 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and

  9. On the security of a novel probabilistic signature based on bilinear square Diffie-Hellman problem and its extension.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhenguo; Shi, Wenbo

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic signature scheme has been widely used in modern electronic commerce since it could provide integrity, authenticity, and nonrepudiation. Recently, Wu and Lin proposed a novel probabilistic signature (PS) scheme using the bilinear square Diffie-Hellman (BSDH) problem. They also extended it to a universal designated verifier signature (UDVS) scheme. In this paper, we analyze the security of Wu et al.'s PS scheme and UDVS scheme. Through concrete attacks, we demonstrate both of their schemes are not unforgeable. The security analysis shows that their schemes are not suitable for practical applications.

  10. On the Security of a Novel Probabilistic Signature Based on Bilinear Square Diffie-Hellman Problem and Its Extension

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhenguo; Shi, Wenbo

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic signature scheme has been widely used in modern electronic commerce since it could provide integrity, authenticity, and nonrepudiation. Recently, Wu and Lin proposed a novel probabilistic signature (PS) scheme using the bilinear square Diffie-Hellman (BSDH) problem. They also extended it to a universal designated verifier signature (UDVS) scheme. In this paper, we analyze the security of Wu et al.'s PS scheme and UDVS scheme. Through concrete attacks, we demonstrate both of their schemes are not unforgeable. The security analysis shows that their schemes are not suitable for practical applications. PMID:25025083

  11. A Logical Approach to Multilevel Security of Probabilistic Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1998-01-01

    their usefulness in security analysis. Key Words: Formal modeling, Veri cation, Knowledge, Security, Probabilistic Systems Supported by grant HKUST 608...94E from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council. yAuthor for correspondence (syverson@itd.nrl.navy.mil). Supported by ONR. 1 Report Documentation Page...Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the

  12. Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

  13. Reasoning about Probabilistic Security Using Task-PIOAs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaggard, Aaron D.; Meadows, Catherine; Mislove, Michael; Segala, Roberto

    Task-structured probabilistic input/output automata (Task-PIOAs) are concurrent probabilistic automata that, among other things, have been used to provide a formal framework for the universal composability paradigms of protocol security. One of their advantages is that that they allow one to distinguish high-level nondeterminism that can affect the outcome of the protocol, from low-level choices, which can't. We present an alternative approach to analyzing the structure of Task-PIOAs that relies on ordered sets. We focus on two of the components that are required to define and apply Task-PIOAs: discrete probability theory and automata theory. We believe our development gives insight into the structure of Task-PIOAs and how they can be utilized to model crypto-protocols. We illustrate our approach with an example from anonymity, an area that has not previously been addressed using Task-PIOAs. We model Chaum's Dining Cryptographers Protocol at a level that does not require cryptographic primitives in the analysis. We show via this example how our approach can leverage a proof of security in the case a principal behaves deterministically to prove security when that principal behaves probabilistically.

  14. Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

    2018-02-01

    Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Estimating and controlling workplace risk: an approach for occupational hygiene and safety professionals.

    PubMed

    Toffel, Michael W; Birkner, Lawrence R

    2002-07-01

    The protection of people and physical assets is the objective of health and safety professionals and is accomplished through the paradigm of anticipation, recognition, evaluation, and control of risks in the occupational environment. Risk assessment concepts are not only used by health and safety professionals, but also by business and financial planners. Since meeting health and safety objectives requires financial resources provided by business and governmental managers, the hypothesis addressed here is that health and safety risk decisions should be made with probabilistic processes used in financial decision-making and which are familiar and recognizable to business and government planners and managers. This article develops the processes and demonstrates the use of incident probabilities, historic outcome information, and incremental impact analysis to estimate risk of multiple alternatives in the chemical process industry. It also analyzes how the ethical aspects of decision-making can be addressed in formulating health and safety risk management plans. It is concluded that certain, easily understood, and applied probabilistic risk assessment methods used by business and government to assess financial and outcome risk have applicability to improving workplace health and safety in three ways: 1) by linking the business and health and safety risk assessment processes to securing resources, 2) by providing an additional set of tools for health and safety risk assessment, and 3) by requiring the risk assessor to consider multiple risk management alternatives.

  16. A Game-Theoretical Model to Improve Process Plant Protection from Terrorist Attacks.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Laobing; Reniers, Genserik

    2016-12-01

    The New York City 9/11 terrorist attacks urged people from academia as well as from industry to pay more attention to operational security research. The required focus in this type of research is human intention. Unlike safety-related accidents, security-related accidents have a deliberate nature, and one has to face intelligent adversaries with characteristics that traditional probabilistic risk assessment techniques are not capable of dealing with. In recent years, the mathematical tool of game theory, being capable to handle intelligent players, has been used in a variety of ways in terrorism risk assessment. In this article, we analyze the general intrusion detection system in process plants, and propose a game-theoretical model for security management in such plants. Players in our model are assumed to be rational and they play the game with complete information. Both the pure strategy and the mixed strategy solutions are explored and explained. We illustrate our model by an illustrative case, and find that in our case, no pure strategy but, instead, a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium exists. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. An Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) to Increase Safety and Security Levels in Industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zubair, M.; Rahman, Khalil Ur; Hassan, Mehmood Ul

    2013-12-01

    The main idea of this research is to develop an Online Risk Monitor System (ORMS) based on Living Probabilistic Safety Assessment (LPSA). The article highlights the essential features and functions of ORMS. The basic models and modules such as, Reliability Data Update Model (RDUM), running time update, redundant system unavailability update, Engineered Safety Features (ESF) unavailability update and general system update have been described in this study. ORMS not only provides quantitative analysis but also highlights qualitative aspects of risk measures. ORMS is capable of automatically updating the online risk models and reliability parameters of equipment. ORMS can support in the decision making process of operators and managers in Nuclear Power Plants.

  18. U.S. Patent Pending, Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation, U.S. Patent Application No.: 14/097,840

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G

    Vulnerability in security of an information system is quantitatively predicted. The information system may receive malicious actions against its security and may receive corrective actions for restoring the security. A game oriented agent based model is constructed in a simulator application. The game ABM model represents security activity in the information system. The game ABM model has two opposing participants including an attacker and a defender, probabilistic game rules and allowable game states. A specified number of simulations are run and a probabilistic number of the plurality of allowable game states are reached in each simulation run. The probability ofmore » reaching a specified game state is unknown prior to running each simulation. Data generated during the game states is collected to determine a probability of one or more aspects of security in the information system.« less

  19. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could providemore » a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.« less

  20. Evaluation of power system security and development of transmission pricing method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Hyungchul

    The electric power utility industry is presently undergoing a change towards the deregulated environment. This has resulted in unbundling of generation, transmission and distribution services. The introduction of competition into unbundled electricity services may lead system operation closer to its security boundaries resulting in smaller operating safety margins. The competitive environment is expected to lead to lower price rates for customers and higher efficiency for power suppliers in the long run. Under this deregulated environment, security assessment and pricing of transmission services have become important issues in power systems. This dissertation provides new methods for power system security assessment and transmission pricing. In power system security assessment, the following issues are discussed (1) The description of probabilistic methods for power system security assessment; (2) The computation time of simulation methods; (3) on-line security assessment for operation. A probabilistic method using Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed for power system security assessment. This method takes into account dynamic and static effects corresponding to contingencies. Two different Kohonen networks, Self-Organizing Maps and Learning Vector Quantization, are employed to speed up the probabilistic method. The combination of Kohonen networks and Monte-Carlo simulation can reduce computation time in comparison with straight Monte-Carlo simulation. A technique for security assessment employing Bayes classifier is also proposed. This method can be useful for system operators to make security decisions during on-line power system operation. This dissertation also suggests an approach for allocating transmission transaction costs based on reliability benefits in transmission services. The proposed method shows the transmission transaction cost of reliability benefits when transmission line capacities are considered. The ratio between allocation by transmission line capacity-use and allocation by reliability benefits is computed using the probability of system failure.

  1. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 5: Auxiliary shuttle risk analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    Volume 5 is Appendix C, Auxiliary Shuttle Risk Analyses, and contains the following reports: Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Space Shuttle Phase 1 - Space Shuttle Catastrophic Failure Frequency Final Report; Risk Analysis Applied to the Space Shuttle Main Engine - Demonstration Project for the Main Combustion Chamber Risk Assessment; An Investigation of the Risk Implications of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Chamber Pressure Excursions; Safety of the Thermal Protection System of the Space Shuttle Orbiter - Quantitative Analysis and Organizational Factors; Space Shuttle Main Propulsion Pressurization System Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Final Report; and Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Proof-of-Concept Study - Auxiliary Power Unit and Hydraulic Power Unit Analysis Report.

  2. Fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of radioactive material railway transportation.

    PubMed

    Avramenko, M; Bolyatko, V; Kosterev, V

    2005-01-01

    Transportation of radioactive materials is obviously accompanied by a certain risk. A model for risk assessment of emergency situations and terrorist attacks may be useful for choosing possible routes and for comparing the various defence strategies. In particular, risk assessment is crucial for safe transportation of excess weapons-grade plutonium arising from the removal of plutonium from military employment. A fuzzy-probabilistic model for risk assessment of railway transportation has been developed taking into account the different natures of risk-affecting parameters (probabilistic and not probabilistic but fuzzy). Fuzzy set theory methods as well as standard methods of probability theory have been used for quantitative risk assessment. Information-preserving transformations are applied to realise the correct aggregation of probabilistic and fuzzy parameters. Estimations have also been made of the inhalation doses resulting from possible accidents during plutonium transportation. The obtained data show the scale of possible consequences that may arise from plutonium transportation accidents.

  3. Electromagnetic Compatibility (EMC) in Microelectronics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-02-01

    Fault Tree Analysis", System Saftey Symposium, June 8-9, 1965, Seattle: The Boeing Company . 12. Fussell, J.B., "Fault Tree Analysis-Concepts and...procedure for assessing EMC in microelectronics and for applying DD, 1473 EOiTO OP I, NOV6 IS OESOL.ETE UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS...CRITERIA 2.1 Background 2 2.2 The Probabilistic Nature of EMC 2 2.3 The Probabilistic Approach 5 2.4 The Compatibility Factor 6 3 APPLYING PROBABILISTIC

  4. The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.

    PubMed

    Rieskamp, Jörg

    2008-11-01

    Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes different choices in nearly identical situations, or why the magnitude of these inconsistencies varies in different situations. To illustrate the advantage of probabilistic theories, three probabilistic theories of decision making under risk are compared with their deterministic counterparts. The probabilistic theories are (a) a probabilistic version of a simple choice heuristic, (b) a probabilistic version of cumulative prospect theory, and (c) decision field theory. By testing the theories with the data from three experimental studies, the superiority of the probabilistic models over their deterministic counterparts in predicting people's decisions under risk become evident. When testing the probabilistic theories against each other, decision field theory provides the best account of the observed behavior.

  5. Probabilistic Characterization of Adversary Behavior in Cyber Security

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Meyers, C A; Powers, S S; Faissol, D M

    2009-10-08

    The objective of this SMS effort is to provide a probabilistic characterization of adversary behavior in cyber security. This includes both quantitative (data analysis) and qualitative (literature review) components. A set of real LLNL email data was obtained for this study, consisting of several years worth of unfiltered traffic sent to a selection of addresses at ciac.org. The email data was subjected to three interrelated analyses: a textual study of the header data and subject matter, an examination of threats present in message attachments, and a characterization of the maliciousness of embedded URLs.

  6. Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

    PubMed

    Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

  7. Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

    PubMed Central

    Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models. PMID:29062288

  8. Probabilistic Risk Assessment: A Bibliography

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis is an integration of failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis and other techniques to assess the potential for failure and to find ways to reduce risk. This bibliography references 160 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts, probabilistic risk assessment, risk and probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms, An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

  9. A Novel TRM Calculation Method by Probabilistic Concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Audomvongseree, Kulyos; Yokoyama, Akihiko; Verma, Suresh Chand; Nakachi, Yoshiki

    In a new competitive environment, it becomes possible for the third party to access a transmission facility. From this structure, to efficiently manage the utilization of the transmission network, a new definition about Available Transfer Capability (ATC) has been proposed. According to the North American ElectricReliability Council (NERC)’s definition, ATC depends on several parameters, i. e. Total Transfer Capability (TTC), Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM), and Capacity Benefit Margin (CBM). This paper is focused on the calculation of TRM which is one of the security margin reserved for any uncertainty of system conditions. The TRM calculation by probabilistic method is proposed in this paper. Based on the modeling of load forecast error and error in transmission line limitation, various cases of transmission transfer capability and its related probabilistic nature can be calculated. By consideration of the proposed concept of risk analysis, the appropriate required amount of TRM can be obtained. The objective of this research is to provide realistic information on the actual ability of the network which may be an alternative choice for system operators to make an appropriate decision in the competitive market. The advantages of the proposed method are illustrated by application to the IEEJ-WEST10 model system.

  10. Reliability and risk assessment of structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, C. C.

    1991-01-01

    Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

  11. System Theoretic Frameworks for Mitigating Risk Complexity in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Williams, Adam David; Mohagheghi, Amir H.; Cohn, Brian

    In response to the expansion of nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) activities -- and the associated suite of risks -- around the world, this project evaluated systems-based solutions for managing such risk complexity in multimodal and multi-jurisdictional international spent nuclear fuel (SNF) transportation. By better understanding systemic risks in SNF transportation, developing SNF transportation risk assessment frameworks, and evaluating these systems-based risk assessment frameworks, this research illustrated interdependency between safety, security, and safeguards risks is inherent in NFC activities and can go unidentified when each "S" is independently evaluated. Two novel system-theoretic analysis techniques -- dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA) andmore » system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) -- provide integrated "3S" analysis to address these interdependencies and the research results suggest a need -- and provide a way -- to reprioritize United States engagement efforts to reduce global nuclear risks. Lastly, this research identifies areas where Sandia National Laboratories can spearhead technical advances to reduce global nuclear dangers.« less

  12. Use of limited data to construct Bayesian networks for probabilistic risk assessment.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2013-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a fundamental part of safety/quality assurance for nuclear power and nuclear weapons. Traditional PRA very effectively models complex hardware system risks using binary probabilistic models. However, traditional PRA models are not flexible enough to accommodate non-binary soft-causal factors, such as digital instrumentation&control, passive components, aging, common cause failure, and human errors. Bayesian Networks offer the opportunity to incorporate these risks into the PRA framework. This report describes the results of an early career LDRD project titled %E2%80%9CUse of Limited Data to Construct Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Risk Assessment%E2%80%9D. The goal of the work was tomore » establish the capability to develop Bayesian Networks from sparse data, and to demonstrate this capability by producing a data-informed Bayesian Network for use in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) as part of nuclear power plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). This report summarizes the research goal and major products of the research.« less

  13. A Probabilistic Risk Mitigation Model for Cyber-Attacks to PMU Networks

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mousavian, Seyedamirabbas; Valenzuela, Jorge; Wang, Jianhui

    The power grid is becoming more dependent on information and communication technologies. Complex networks of advanced sensors such as phasor measurement units (PMUs) are used to collect real time data to improve the observability of the power system. Recent studies have shown that the power grid has significant cyber vulnerabilities which could increase when PMUs are used extensively. Therefore, recognizing and responding to vulnerabilities are critical to the security of the power grid. This paper proposes a risk mitigation model for optimal response to cyber-attacks to PMU networks. We model the optimal response action as a mixed integer linear programmingmore » (MILP) problem to prevent propagation of the cyber-attacks and maintain the observability of the power system.« less

  14. Using incident response trees as a tool for risk management of online financial services.

    PubMed

    Gorton, Dan

    2014-09-01

    The article introduces the use of probabilistic risk assessment for modeling the incident response process of online financial services. The main contribution is the creation of incident response trees, using event tree analysis, which provides us with a visual tool and a systematic way to estimate the probability of a successful incident response process against the currently known risk landscape, making it possible to measure the balance between front-end and back-end security measures. The model is presented using an illustrative example, and is then applied to the incident response process of a Swedish bank. Access to relevant data is verified and the applicability and usability of the proposed model is verified using one year of historical data. Potential advantages and possible shortcomings are discussed, referring to both the design phase and the operational phase, and future work is presented. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Methods for Calculating Frequency of Maintenance of Complex Information Security System Based on Dynamics of Its Reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.

    2017-11-01

    This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.

  16. COMMUNICATING PROBABILISTIC RISK OUTCOMES TO RISK MANAGERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasingly, risk assessors are moving away from simple deterministic assessments to probabilistic approaches that explicitly incorporate ecological variability, measurement imprecision, and lack of knowledge (collectively termed "uncertainty"). While the new methods provide an...

  17. Relative risk of probabilistic category learning deficits in patients with schizophrenia and their siblings

    PubMed Central

    Weickert, Thomas W.; Goldberg, Terry E.; Egan, Michael F.; Apud, Jose A.; Meeter, Martijn; Myers, Catherine E.; Gluck, Mark A; Weinberger, Daniel R.

    2010-01-01

    Background While patients with schizophrenia display an overall probabilistic category learning performance deficit, the extent to which this deficit occurs in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia is unknown. There are also discrepant findings regarding probabilistic category learning acquisition rate and performance in patients with schizophrenia. Methods A probabilistic category learning test was administered to 108 patients with schizophrenia, 82 unaffected siblings, and 121 healthy participants. Results Patients with schizophrenia displayed significant differences from their unaffected siblings and healthy participants with respect to probabilistic category learning acquisition rates. Although siblings on the whole failed to differ from healthy participants on strategy and quantitative indices of overall performance and learning acquisition, application of a revised learning criterion enabling classification into good and poor learners based on individual learning curves revealed significant differences between percentages of sibling and healthy poor learners: healthy (13.2%), siblings (34.1%), patients (48.1%), yielding a moderate relative risk. Conclusions These results clarify previous discrepant findings pertaining to probabilistic category learning acquisition rate in schizophrenia and provide the first evidence for the relative risk of probabilistic category learning abnormalities in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia, supporting genetic underpinnings of probabilistic category learning deficits in schizophrenia. These findings also raise questions regarding the contribution of antipsychotic medication to the probabilistic category learning deficit in schizophrenia. The distinction between good and poor learning may be used to inform genetic studies designed to detect schizophrenia risk alleles. PMID:20172502

  18. 75 FR 13610 - Office of New Reactors; Interim Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-22

    ... Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic... Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment,'' (Agencywide Documents.../COL-ISG-020 ``Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk...

  19. WIPCast: Probabilistic Forecasting for Aviation Decision Aid Applications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    traders, or families planning an outing – manage weather-related risk. By quantifying risk , probabilistic forecasting enables optimization of actions via...confidence interval to the user’s risk tolerance helps drive highly effective and innovative decision support mechanisms for visually quantifying risk for

  20. Integrated probabilistic risk assessment for nanoparticles: the case of nanosilica in food.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Rianne; van der Voet, Hilko; Ter Braak, Cajo J F

    Insight into risks of nanotechnology and the use of nanoparticles is an essential condition for the social acceptance and safe use of nanotechnology. One of the problems with which the risk assessment of nanoparticles is faced is the lack of data, resulting in uncertainty in the risk assessment. We attempt to quantify some of this uncertainty by expanding a previous deterministic study on nanosilica (5-200 nm) in food into a fully integrated probabilistic risk assessment. We use the integrated probabilistic risk assessment method in which statistical distributions and bootstrap methods are used to quantify uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment. Due to the large amount of uncertainty present, this probabilistic method, which separates variability from uncertainty, contributed to a better understandable risk assessment. We found that quantifying the uncertainties did not increase the perceived risk relative to the outcome of the deterministic study. We pinpointed particular aspects of the hazard characterization that contributed most to the total uncertainty in the risk assessment, suggesting that further research would benefit most from obtaining more reliable data on those aspects.

  1. Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning.

    PubMed

    Fusar-Poli, P; Schultze-Lutter, F

    2016-02-01

    Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Influence Diagrams as Decision-Making Tools for Pesticide Risk Management

    EPA Science Inventory

    The pesticide policy arena is filled with discussion of probabilistic approaches to assess ecological risk, however, similar discussions about implementing formal probabilistic methods in pesticide risk decision making are less common. An influence diagram approach is proposed f...

  3. Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

  4. Developing Probabilistic Safety Performance Margins for Unknown and Underappreciated Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Benjamin, Allan; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Everett, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic safety requirements currently formulated or proposed for space systems, nuclear reactor systems, nuclear weapon systems, and other types of systems that have a low-probability potential for high-consequence accidents depend on showing that the probability of such accidents is below a specified safety threshold or goal. Verification of compliance depends heavily upon synthetic modeling techniques such as PRA. To determine whether or not a system meets its probabilistic requirements, it is necessary to consider whether there are significant risks that are not fully considered in the PRA either because they are not known at the time or because their importance is not fully understood. The ultimate objective is to establish a reasonable margin to account for the difference between known risks and actual risks in attempting to validate compliance with a probabilistic safety threshold or goal. In this paper, we examine data accumulated over the past 60 years from the space program, from nuclear reactor experience, from aircraft systems, and from human reliability experience to formulate guidelines for estimating probabilistic margins to account for risks that are initially unknown or underappreciated. The formulation includes a review of the safety literature to identify the principal causes of such risks.

  5. PREDICT: Privacy and Security Enhancing Dynamic Information Monitoring

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-03

    consisting of global server-side probabilistic assignment by an untrusted server using cloaked locations, followed by feedback-loop guided local...12], consisting of global server-side probabilistic assignment by an untrusted server using cloaked locations, followed by feedback-loop guided...these methods achieve high sensing coverage with low cost using cloaked locations [3]. In follow-on work, the issue of mobility is addressed. Task

  6. Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1992-01-01

    The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

  7. Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.

    1992-07-01

    The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

  8. A Probabilistic Framework for Quantifying Mixed Uncertainties in Cyber Attacker Payoffs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chatterjee, Samrat; Tipireddy, Ramakrishna; Oster, Matthew R.

    Quantification and propagation of uncertainties in cyber attacker payoffs is a key aspect within multiplayer, stochastic security games. These payoffs may represent penalties or rewards associated with player actions and are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including: (1) cyber-system state, (2) attacker type, (3) choice of player actions, and (4) cyber-system state transitions over time. Past research has primarily focused on representing defender beliefs about attacker payoffs as point utility estimates. More recently, within the physical security domain, attacker payoff uncertainties have been represented as Uniform and Gaussian probability distributions, and mathematical intervals. For cyber-systems, probability distributions may helpmore » address statistical (aleatory) uncertainties where the defender may assume inherent variability or randomness in the factors contributing to the attacker payoffs. However, systematic (epistemic) uncertainties may exist, where the defender may not have sufficient knowledge or there is insufficient information about the attacker’s payoff generation mechanism. Such epistemic uncertainties are more suitably represented as generalizations of probability boxes. This paper explores the mathematical treatment of such mixed payoff uncertainties. A conditional probabilistic reasoning approach is adopted to organize the dependencies between a cyber-system’s state, attacker type, player actions, and state transitions. This also enables the application of probabilistic theories to propagate various uncertainties in the attacker payoffs. An example implementation of this probabilistic framework and resulting attacker payoff distributions are discussed. A goal of this paper is also to highlight this uncertainty quantification problem space to the cyber security research community and encourage further advancements in this area.« less

  9. Probabilistic Exposure Analysis for Chemical Risk Characterization

    PubMed Central

    Bogen, Kenneth T.; Cullen, Alison C.; Frey, H. Christopher; Price, Paul S.

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes the state of the science of probabilistic exposure assessment (PEA) as applied to chemical risk characterization. Current probabilistic risk analysis methods applied to PEA are reviewed. PEA within the context of risk-based decision making is discussed, including probabilistic treatment of related uncertainty, interindividual heterogeneity, and other sources of variability. Key examples of recent experience gained in assessing human exposures to chemicals in the environment, and other applications to chemical risk characterization and assessment, are presented. It is concluded that, although improvements continue to be made, existing methods suffice for effective application of PEA to support quantitative analyses of the risk of chemically induced toxicity that play an increasing role in key decision-making objectives involving health protection, triage, civil justice, and criminal justice. Different types of information required to apply PEA to these different decision contexts are identified, and specific PEA methods are highlighted that are best suited to exposure assessment in these separate contexts. PMID:19223660

  10. Risk analysis of analytical validations by probabilistic modification of FMEA.

    PubMed

    Barends, D M; Oldenhof, M T; Vredenbregt, M J; Nauta, M J

    2012-05-01

    Risk analysis is a valuable addition to validation of an analytical chemistry process, enabling not only detecting technical risks, but also risks related to human failures. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) can be applied, using a categorical risk scoring of the occurrence, detection and severity of failure modes, and calculating the Risk Priority Number (RPN) to select failure modes for correction. We propose a probabilistic modification of FMEA, replacing the categorical scoring of occurrence and detection by their estimated relative frequency and maintaining the categorical scoring of severity. In an example, the results of traditional FMEA of a Near Infrared (NIR) analytical procedure used for the screening of suspected counterfeited tablets are re-interpretated by this probabilistic modification of FMEA. Using this probabilistic modification of FMEA, the frequency of occurrence of undetected failure mode(s) can be estimated quantitatively, for each individual failure mode, for a set of failure modes, and the full analytical procedure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Towards an Artificial Space Object Taxonomy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-01

    demonstrate how to implement this taxonomy in Figaro, an open source probabilistic programming language. 2. INTRODUCTION Currently, US Space Command...Taxonomy 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7...demonstrate how to implement this taxonomy in Figaro, an open source probabilistic programming language. 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

  12. PRISMATIC: Unified Hierarchical Probabilistic Verification Tool

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    security protocols such as for anonymity and quantum cryptography ; and biological reaction pathways. PRISM is currently the leading probabilistic...a whole will only deadlock and fail with a probability ≤ p/2. The assumption allows us to partition the overall system verification problem into two ...run on any port using the standard HTTP protocol. In this way multiple instances of the PRISMATIC web service can respond to different requests when

  13. Comment on "Secure quantum private information retrieval using phase-encoded queries"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Run-hua; Mu, Yi; Zhong, Hong; Zhang, Shun

    2016-12-01

    In this Comment, we reexamine the security of phase-encoded quantum private query (QPQ). We find that the current phase-encoded QPQ protocols, including their applications, are vulnerable to a probabilistic entangle-and-measure attack performed by the owner of the database. Furthermore, we discuss how to overcome this security loophole and present an improved cheat-sensitive QPQ protocol without losing the good features of the original protocol.

  14. A methodology for post-mainshock probabilistic assessment of building collapse risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luco, N.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Uma, S.R.; Ryu, H.; Liel, A.B.; Raghunandan, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology for post-earthquake probabilistic risk (of damage) assessment that we propose in order to develop a computational tool for automatic or semi-automatic assessment. The methodology utilizes the same so-called risk integral which can be used for pre-earthquake probabilistic assessment. The risk integral couples (i) ground motion hazard information for the location of a structure of interest with (ii) knowledge of the fragility of the structure with respect to potential ground motion intensities. In the proposed post-mainshock methodology, the ground motion hazard component of the risk integral is adapted to account for aftershocks which are deliberately excluded from typical pre-earthquake hazard assessments and which decrease in frequency with the time elapsed since the mainshock. Correspondingly, the structural fragility component is adapted to account for any damage caused by the mainshock, as well as any uncertainty in the extent of this damage. The result of the adapted risk integral is a fully-probabilistic quantification of post-mainshock seismic risk that can inform emergency response mobilization, inspection prioritization, and re-occupancy decisions.

  15. Extravehicular Activity Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview for Thermal Protection System Repair on the Hubble Space Telescope Servicing Mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bigler, Mark; Canga, Michael A.; Duncan, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Shuttle Program initiated an Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assess the risks associated with performing a Shuttle Thermal Protection System (TPS) repair during the Space Transportation System (STS)-125 Hubble repair mission as part of risk trades between TPS repair and crew rescue.

  16. Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, Christos C.; Shiao, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

  17. Methodological framework for the probabilistic risk assessment of multi-hazards at a municipal scale: a case study in the Fella river valley, Eastern Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussin, Haydar; van Westen, Cees; Reichenbach, Paola

    2013-04-01

    Local and regional authorities in mountainous areas that deal with hydro-meteorological hazards like landslides and floods try to set aside budgets for emergencies and risk mitigation. However, future losses are often not calculated in a probabilistic manner when allocating budgets or determining how much risk is acceptable. The absence of probabilistic risk estimates can create a lack of preparedness for reconstruction and risk reduction costs and a deficiency in promoting risk mitigation and prevention in an effective way. The probabilistic risk of natural hazards at local scale is usually ignored all together due to the difficulty in acknowledging, processing and incorporating uncertainties in the estimation of losses (e.g. physical damage, fatalities and monetary loss). This study attempts to set up a working framework for a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of landslides and floods at a municipal scale using the Fella river valley (Eastern Italian Alps) as a multi-hazard case study area. The emphasis is on the evaluation and determination of the uncertainty in the estimation of losses from multi-hazards. To carry out this framework some steps are needed: (1) by using physically based stochastic landslide and flood models we aim to calculate the probability of the physical impact on individual elements at risk, (2) this is then combined with a statistical analysis of the vulnerability and monetary value of the elements at risk in order to include their uncertainty in the risk assessment, (3) finally the uncertainty from each risk component is propagated into the loss estimation. The combined effect of landslides and floods on the direct risk to communities in narrow alpine valleys is also one of important aspects that needs to be studied.

  18. [Self-esteem level and correlation to risk behaviour of students at the University of Almería (Spain)].

    PubMed

    Muñoz-París, M José; Ruiz-Muñoz, Ana del Mar

    2008-01-01

    To evaluate self-esteem levels in college students at the University of Almería (Spain) and their possible correlation with risk behaviors, specifically, drug use and sexual behavior. We performed an observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, prolective study. A self-completed questionnaire was used to gather data. Students attending specific university services of the University of Almería were selected by non-probabilistic sampling. Self-esteem was measured using Cooersmith's scale. In the 123 students studied, self-esteem was very low in 7.9%, medium-low in 29.3%, medium in 12.2 %, medium-high in 46.3% and very high in 4.9 %. No significant differences were found between the sexes. No significant correlation was found between sexual behavior and level of self-esteem. Consumption of alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, designer drugs, and amphetamines was higher in groups with higher self-esteem. Self-esteem is important in every sphere of life and can be considered a basic human need. Self-esteem increases the level of personal security and has been described as a protective factor against risk behaviors. However, our data indicate increased drug consumption among young people with higher self-esteem. Given the importance of the topic and the novelty of our results, in future studies we intend to broaden the sample and perform probabilistic stratified sampling in order to extrapolate the results to the entire population of the University of Almería.

  19. Uncertainty characterization approaches for risk assessment of DBPs in drinking water: a review.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

    2009-04-01

    The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.

  20. A Transferrable Belief Model Representation for Physical Security of Nuclear Materials

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    David Gerts

    This work analyzed various probabilistic methods such as classic statistics, Bayesian inference, possibilistic theory, and Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for the potential insight offered into the physical security of nuclear materials as well as more broad application to nuclear non-proliferation automated decision making theory. A review of the fundamental heuristic and basic limitations of each of these methods suggested that the Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions may offer significant capability. Further examination of the various interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, such as random set, generalized Bayesian, and upper/lower probability demonstrate some limitations. Compared to the other heuristics, the transferrable beliefmore » model (TBM), one of the leading interpretations of Dempster-Shafer theory, can improve the automated detection of the violation of physical security using sensors and human judgment. The improvement is shown to give a significant heuristic advantage over other probabilistic options by demonstrating significant successes for several classic gedanken experiments.« less

  1. 76 FR 55717 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS); Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-08

    ... Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will hold a meeting on September 20, 2011, Room T-2B1, 11545 Rockville Pike... Memorandum on Modifying the Risk-Informed Regulatory Guidance for New Reactors. The Subcommittee will hear...

  2. 75 FR 18205 - Notice of Peer Review Meeting for the External Peer Review Drafts of Two Documents on Using...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-04-09

    ... Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice... documents entitled, ``Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision- Making... Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making, with Case Study Examples'' and...

  3. Assessing State Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: Using Bayesian Network Analysis of Social Factors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coles, Garill A.; Brothers, Alan J.; Olson, Jarrod

    A Bayesian network (BN) model of social factors can support proliferation assessments by estimating the likelihood that a state will pursue a nuclear weapon. Social factors including political, economic, nuclear capability, security, and national identity and psychology factors may play as important a role in whether a State pursues nuclear weapons as more physical factors. This paper will show how using Bayesian reasoning on a generic case of a would-be proliferator State can be used to combine evidence that supports proliferation assessment. Theories and analysis by political scientists can be leveraged in a quantitative and transparent way to indicate proliferationmore » risk. BN models facilitate diagnosis and inference in a probabilistic environment by using a network of nodes and acyclic directed arcs between the nodes whose connections, or absence of, indicate probabilistic relevance, or independence. We propose a BN model that would use information from both traditional safeguards and the strengthened safeguards associated with the Additional Protocol to indicate countries with a high risk of proliferating nuclear weapons. This model could be used in a variety of applications such a prioritization tool and as a component of state safeguards evaluations. This paper will discuss the benefits of BN reasoning, the development of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) BN state proliferation model and how it could be employed as an analytical tool.« less

  4. 76 FR 28102 - Notice of Issuance of Regulatory Guide

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-05-13

    ..., Probabilistic Risk Assessment Branch, Division of Risk Analysis, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S... approaches and methods (whether quantitative or qualitative, deterministic or probabilistic), data, and... uses in evaluating specific problems or postulated accidents, and data that the staff needs in its...

  5. A privacy preserving protocol for tracking participants in phase I clinical trials.

    PubMed

    El Emam, Khaled; Farah, Hanna; Samet, Saeed; Essex, Aleksander; Jonker, Elizabeth; Kantarcioglu, Murat; Earle, Craig C

    2015-10-01

    Some phase 1 clinical trials offer strong financial incentives for healthy individuals to participate in their studies. There is evidence that some individuals enroll in multiple trials concurrently. This creates safety risks and introduces data quality problems into the trials. Our objective was to construct a privacy preserving protocol to track phase 1 participants to detect concurrent enrollment. A protocol using secure probabilistic querying against a database of trial participants that allows for screening during telephone interviews and on-site enrollment was developed. The match variables consisted of demographic information. The accuracy (sensitivity, precision, and negative predictive value) of the matching and its computational performance in seconds were measured under simulated environments. Accuracy was also compared to non-secure matching methods. The protocol performance scales linearly with the database size. At the largest database size of 20,000 participants, a query takes under 20s on a 64 cores machine. Sensitivity, precision, and negative predictive value of the queries were consistently at or above 0.9, and were very similar to non-secure versions of the protocol. The protocol provides a reasonable solution to the concurrent enrollment problems in phase 1 clinical trials, and is able to ensure that personal information about participants is kept secure. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2001-08-01

    That forecasts should be stated in probabilistic, rather than deterministic, terms has been argued from common sense and decision-theoretic perspectives for almost a century. Yet most operational hydrological forecasting systems produce deterministic forecasts and most research in operational hydrology has been devoted to finding the 'best' estimates rather than quantifying the predictive uncertainty. This essay presents a compendium of reasons for probabilistic forecasting of hydrological variates. Probabilistic forecasts are scientifically more honest, enable risk-based warnings of floods, enable rational decision making, and offer additional economic benefits. The growing demand for information about risk and the rising capability to quantify predictive uncertainties create an unparalleled opportunity for the hydrological profession to dramatically enhance the forecasting paradigm.

  7. Face Recognition for Access Control Systems Combining Image-Difference Features Based on a Probabilistic Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miwa, Shotaro; Kage, Hiroshi; Hirai, Takashi; Sumi, Kazuhiko

    We propose a probabilistic face recognition algorithm for Access Control System(ACS)s. Comparing with existing ACSs using low cost IC-cards, face recognition has advantages in usability and security that it doesn't require people to hold cards over scanners and doesn't accept imposters with authorized cards. Therefore face recognition attracts more interests in security markets than IC-cards. But in security markets where low cost ACSs exist, price competition is important, and there is a limitation on the quality of available cameras and image control. Therefore ACSs using face recognition are required to handle much lower quality images, such as defocused and poor gain-controlled images than high security systems, such as immigration control. To tackle with such image quality problems we developed a face recognition algorithm based on a probabilistic model which combines a variety of image-difference features trained by Real AdaBoost with their prior probability distributions. It enables to evaluate and utilize only reliable features among trained ones during each authentication, and achieve high recognition performance rates. The field evaluation using a pseudo Access Control System installed in our office shows that the proposed system achieves a constant high recognition performance rate independent on face image qualities, that is about four times lower EER (Equal Error Rate) under a variety of image conditions than one without any prior probability distributions. On the other hand using image difference features without any prior probabilities are sensitive to image qualities. We also evaluated PCA, and it has worse, but constant performance rates because of its general optimization on overall data. Comparing with PCA, Real AdaBoost without any prior distribution performs twice better under good image conditions, but degrades to a performance as good as PCA under poor image conditions.

  8. Finite element probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bacvarov, D.C.

    1981-01-01

    A new method for probabilistic risk assessment of transmission line insulation flashovers caused by lightning strokes is presented. The utilized approach of applying the finite element method for probabilistic risk assessment is demonstrated to be very powerful. The reasons for this are two. First, the finite element method is inherently suitable for analysis of three dimensional spaces where the parameters, such as three variate probability densities of the lightning currents, are non-uniformly distributed. Second, the finite element method permits non-uniform discretization of the three dimensional probability spaces thus yielding high accuracy in critical regions, such as the area of themore » low probability events, while at the same time maintaining coarse discretization in the non-critical areas to keep the number of grid points and the size of the problem to a manageable low level. The finite element probabilistic risk assessment method presented here is based on a new multidimensional search algorithm. It utilizes an efficient iterative technique for finite element interpolation of the transmission line insulation flashover criteria computed with an electro-magnetic transients program. Compared to other available methods the new finite element probabilistic risk assessment method is significantly more accurate and approximately two orders of magnitude computationally more efficient. The method is especially suited for accurate assessment of rare, very low probability events.« less

  9. Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, space radi-ation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We es-timated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration po-tential (φ). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

  10. Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk from Solar Particle Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2010-01-01

    For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which include high energy protons and heavy ions. While the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle, the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. We estimated the probability of SPE occurrence using a non-homogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of proton measurements. Distributions of particle fluences of SPEs for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5 th to 95th percentile to assess the cancer risk distribution. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. We estimated the overall cumulative probability of GCR environment for a specified mission period using a solar modulation model for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (^). Probabilistic assessment of cancer fatal risk was calculated for various periods of lunar and Mars missions. This probabilistic approach to risk assessment from space radiation is in support of mission design and operational planning for future manned space exploration missions. In future work, this probabilistic approach to the space radiation will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

  11. The Terrestrial Investigation Model: A probabilistic risk assessment model for birds exposed to pesticides

    EPA Science Inventory

    One of the major recommendations of the National Academy of Science to the USEPA, NMFS and USFWS was to utilize probabilistic methods when assessing the risks of pesticides to federally listed endangered and threatened species. The Terrestrial Investigation Model (TIM, version 3....

  12. Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

    2011-12-01

    Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

  13. A probabilistic assessment of health risks associated with short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Whitfield, R.G; Biller, W.F.; Jusko, M.J.

    1996-06-01

    The work described in this report is part of a larger risk assessment sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier efforts developed exposure-response relationships for acute health effects among populations engaged in heavy exertion. Those efforts also developed a probabilistic national ambient air quality standards exposure model and a general methodology for integrating probabilistic exposure-response relation- ships and exposure estimates to calculate overall risk results. Recently published data make it possible to model additional health endpoints (for exposure at moderate exertion), including hospital admissions. New air quality and exposure estimates for alternative national ambient air quality standards for ozonemore » are combined with exposure-response models to produce the risk results for hospital admissions and acute health effects. Sample results explain the methodology and introduce risk output formats.« less

  14. A mediation model to explain decision making under conditions of risk among adolescents: the role of fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning.

    PubMed

    Donati, Maria Anna; Panno, Angelo; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina

    2014-01-01

    This study tested the mediating role of probabilistic reasoning ability in the relationship between fluid intelligence and advantageous decision making among adolescents in explicit situations of risk--that is, in contexts in which information on the choice options (gains, losses, and probabilities) were explicitly presented at the beginning of the task. Participants were 282 adolescents attending high school (77% males, mean age = 17.3 years). We first measured fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning ability. Then, to measure decision making under explicit conditions of risk, participants performed the Game of Dice Task, in which they have to decide among different alternatives that are explicitly linked to a specific amount of gain or loss and have obvious winning probabilities that are stable over time. Analyses showed a significant positive indirect effect of fluid intelligence on advantageous decision making through probabilistic reasoning ability that acted as a mediator. Specifically, fluid intelligence may enhance ability to reason in probabilistic terms, which in turn increases the likelihood of advantageous choices when adolescents are confronted with an explicit decisional context. Findings show that in experimental paradigm settings, adolescents are able to make advantageous decisions using cognitive abilities when faced with decisions under explicit risky conditions. This study suggests that interventions designed to promote probabilistic reasoning, for example by incrementing the mathematical prerequisites necessary to reason in probabilistic terms, may have a positive effect on adolescents' decision-making abilities.

  15. Review of methods for developing regional probabilistic risk assessments, part 2: modeling invasive plant, insect, and pathogen species

    Treesearch

    P. B. Woodbury; D. A. Weinstein

    2010-01-01

    We reviewed probabilistic regional risk assessment methodologies to identify the methods that are currently in use and are capable of estimating threats to ecosystems from fire and fuels, invasive species, and their interactions with stressors. In a companion chapter, we highlight methods useful for evaluating risks from fire. In this chapter, we highlight methods...

  16. Evaluation of a Cyber Security System for Hospital Network.

    PubMed

    Faysel, Mohammad A

    2015-01-01

    Most of the cyber security systems use simulated data in evaluating their detection capabilities. The proposed cyber security system utilizes real hospital network connections. It uses a probabilistic data mining algorithm to detect anomalous events and takes appropriate response in real-time. On an evaluation using real-world hospital network data consisting of incoming network connections collected for a 24-hour period, the proposed system detected 15 unusual connections which were undetected by a commercial intrusion prevention system for the same network connections. Evaluation of the proposed system shows a potential to secure protected patient health information on a hospital network.

  17. Probabilistic load simulation: Code development status

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newell, J. F.; Ho, H.

    1991-05-01

    The objective of the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project is to develop generic load models to simulate the composite load spectra that are included in space propulsion system components. The probabilistic loads thus generated are part of the probabilistic design analysis (PDA) of a space propulsion system that also includes probabilistic structural analyses, reliability, and risk evaluations. Probabilistic load simulation for space propulsion systems demands sophisticated probabilistic methodology and requires large amounts of load information and engineering data. The CLS approach is to implement a knowledge based system coupled with a probabilistic load simulation module. The knowledge base manages and furnishes load information and expertise and sets up the simulation runs. The load simulation module performs the numerical computation to generate the probabilistic loads with load information supplied from the CLS knowledge base.

  18. Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1988-01-01

    Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

  19. 76 FR 11525 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-02

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS) Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA); Notice of Meeting The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Room T-2B1, 11545 Rockville Pike, Rockville, Maryland...

  20. 76 FR 22934 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-25

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment; Notice of Meeting The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will hold a meeting on May 11, 2011, Room T-2B3, 11545...

  1. 76 FR 71609 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-18

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS), Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment; Notice of Meeting The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will hold a meeting on December 14, 2011, Room T-2B3...

  2. Adolescents' Heightened Risk-Seeking in a Probabilistic Gambling Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burnett, Stephanie; Bault, Nadege; Coricelli, Giorgio; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated adolescent males' decision-making under risk, and the emotional response to decision outcomes, using a probabilistic gambling task designed to evoke counterfactually mediated emotions (relief and regret). Participants were 20 adolescents (aged 9-11), 26 young adolescents (aged 12-15), 20 mid-adolescents (aged 15-18) and 17…

  3. Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

  4. Probabilistic Description of the Hydrologic Risk in Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vico, G.; Porporato, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variability on agroecosystems productivity and profitability, at the expenses of increasing water requirements for irrigation purposes. Optimizing water allocation for crop yield preservation and sustainable development needs to account for hydro-climatic variability, which is by far the main source of uncertainty affecting crop yields and irrigation water requirements. In this contribution, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed to quantitatively define the hydrologic risk of yield reduction for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season. Based on these linkages, long-term and real-time yield reduction risk indices are defined as a function of climate, soil and crop parameters, as well as irrigation strategy. The former risk index is suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, while the latter risk index provides a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season. This probabilistic framework allows also assessing the impact of limited water availability on crop yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios, thus facilitating the assessment of the impact of increasingly frequent water shortages on agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability.

  5. The benefits of probabilistic exposure assessment: three case studies involving contaminated air, water, and soil.

    PubMed

    Finley, B; Paustenbach, D

    1994-02-01

    Probabilistic risk assessments are enjoying increasing popularity as a tool to characterize the health hazards associated with exposure to chemicals in the environment. Because probabilistic analyses provide much more information to the risk manager than standard "point" risk estimates, this approach has generally been heralded as one which could significantly improve the conduct of health risk assessments. The primary obstacles to replacing point estimates with probabilistic techniques include a general lack of familiarity with the approach and a lack of regulatory policy and guidance. This paper discusses some of the advantages and disadvantages of the point estimate vs. probabilistic approach. Three case studies are presented which contrast and compare the results of each. The first addresses the risks associated with household exposure to volatile chemicals in tapwater. The second evaluates airborne dioxin emissions which can enter the food-chain. The third illustrates how to derive health-based cleanup levels for dioxin in soil. It is shown that, based on the results of Monte Carlo analyses of probability density functions (PDFs), the point estimate approach required by most regulatory agencies will nearly always overpredict the risk for the 95th percentile person by a factor of up to 5. When the assessment requires consideration of 10 or more exposure variables, the point estimate approach will often predict risks representative of the 99.9th percentile person rather than the 50th or 95th percentile person. This paper recommends a number of data distributions for various exposure variables that we believe are now sufficiently well understood to be used with confidence in most exposure assessments. A list of exposure variables that may require additional research before adequate data distributions can be developed are also discussed.

  6. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the relevance of accounting for the full range of flood events and their relation to both potential damages and benefits in risk assessments. Management measures may thus be designed to reflect local contexts and support benefits of natural hydrologic processes, while minimizing flood damage.

  7. Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

    2009-01-01

    This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

  8. 76 FR 18586 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS); Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-04-04

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS); Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA); Notice of Meeting The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will hold a meeting on April 20, 2011, Room T-2B1, 11545...

  9. Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents.

    PubMed

    Offerman, Theo; Palley, Asa B

    2016-01-01

    Strictly proper scoring rules are designed to truthfully elicit subjective probabilistic beliefs from risk neutral agents. Previous experimental studies have identified two problems with this method: (i) risk aversion causes agents to bias their reports toward the probability of [Formula: see text], and (ii) for moderate beliefs agents simply report [Formula: see text]. Applying a prospect theory model of risk preferences, we show that loss aversion can explain both of these behavioral phenomena. Using the insights of this model, we develop a simple off-the-shelf probability assessment mechanism that encourages loss-averse agents to report true beliefs. In an experiment, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this modification in both eliminating uninformative reports and eliciting true probabilistic beliefs.

  10. Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, Christos C.

    2010-01-01

    A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multifactor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

  11. Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamis, Christos C.

    2008-01-01

    A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multi-factor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

  12. Proceedings of the international meeting on thermal nuclear reactor safety. Vol. 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    None

    Separate abstracts are included for each of the papers presented concerning current issues in nuclear power plant safety; national programs in nuclear power plant safety; radiological source terms; probabilistic risk assessment methods and techniques; non LOCA and small-break-LOCA transients; safety goals; pressurized thermal shocks; applications of reliability and risk methods to probabilistic risk assessment; human factors and man-machine interface; and data bases and special applications.

  13. Geothermal probabilistic cost study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orren, L. H.; Ziman, G. M.; Jones, S. C.; Lee, T. K.; Noll, R.; Wilde, L.; Sadanand, V.

    1981-01-01

    A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model was used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents was analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance were examined.

  14. A generalized sizing method for revolutionary concepts under probabilistic design constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nam, Taewoo

    Internal combustion (IC) engines that consume hydrocarbon fuels have dominated the propulsion systems of air-vehicles for the first century of aviation. In recent years, however, growing concern over rapid climate changes and national energy security has galvanized the aerospace community into delving into new alternatives that could challenge the dominance of the IC engine. Nevertheless, traditional aircraft sizing methods have significant shortcomings for the design of such unconventionally powered aircraft. First, the methods are specialized for aircraft powered by IC engines, and thus are not flexible enough to assess revolutionary propulsion concepts that produce propulsive thrust through a completely different energy conversion process. Another deficiency associated with the traditional methods is that a user of these methods must rely heavily on experts' experience and advice for determining appropriate design margins. However, the introduction of revolutionary propulsion systems and energy sources is very likely to entail an unconventional aircraft configuration, which inexorably disqualifies the conjecture of such "connoisseurs" as a means of risk management. Motivated by such deficiencies, this dissertation aims at advancing two aspects of aircraft sizing: (1) to develop a generalized aircraft sizing formulation applicable to a wide range of unconventionally powered aircraft concepts and (2) to formulate a probabilistic optimization technique that is able to quantify appropriate design margins that are tailored towards the level of risk deemed acceptable to a decision maker. A more generalized aircraft sizing formulation, named the Architecture Independent Aircraft Sizing Method (AIASM), was developed for sizing revolutionary aircraft powered by alternative energy sources by modifying several assumptions of the traditional aircraft sizing method. Along with advances in deterministic aircraft sizing, a non-deterministic sizing technique, named the Probabilistic Aircraft Sizing Method (PASM), was developed. The method allows one to quantify adequate design margins to account for the various sources of uncertainty via the application of the chance-constrained programming (CCP) strategy to AIASM. In this way, PASM can also provide insights into a good compromise between cost and safety.

  15. Site-specific probabilistic ecological risk assessment of a volatile chlorinated hydrocarbon-contaminated tidal estuary.

    PubMed

    Hunt, James; Birch, Gavin; Warne, Michael St J

    2010-05-01

    Groundwater contaminated with volatile chlorinated hydrocarbons (VCHs) was identified as discharging to Penrhyn Estuary, an intertidal embayment of Botany Bay, New South Wales, Australia. A screening-level hazard assessment of surface water in Penrhyn Estuary identified an unacceptable hazard to marine organisms posed by VCHs. Given the limitations of hazard assessments, the present study conducted a higher-tier, quantitative probabilistic risk assessment using the joint probability curve (JPC) method that accounted for variability in exposure and toxicity profiles to quantify risk (delta). Risk was assessed for 24 scenarios, including four areas of the estuary based on three exposure scenarios (low tide, high tide, and both low and high tides) and two toxicity scenarios (chronic no-observed-effect concentrations [NOEC] and 50% effect concentrations [EC50]). Risk (delta) was greater at low tide than at high tide and varied throughout the tidal cycle. Spatial distributions of risk in the estuary were similar using both NOEC and EC50 data. The exposure scenario including data combined from both tides was considered the most accurate representation of the ecological risk in the estuary. When assessing risk using data across both tides, the greatest risk was identified in the Springvale tributary (delta=25%)-closest to the source area-followed by the inner estuary (delta=4%) and the Floodvale tributary (delta=2%), with the lowest risk in the outer estuary (delta=0.1%), farthest from the source area. Going from the screening level ecological risk assessment (ERA) to the probabilistic ERA changed the risk from unacceptable to acceptable in 50% of exposure scenarios in two of the four areas within the estuary. The probabilistic ERA provided a more realistic assessment of risk than the screening-level hazard assessment. Copyright (c) 2010 SETAC.

  16. Applicability of a neuroprobabilistic integral risk index for the environmental management of polluted areas: a case study.

    PubMed

    Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

    2008-04-01

    Recently, we developed a GIS-Integrated Integral Risk Index (IRI) to assess human health risks in areas with presence of environmental pollutants. Contaminants were previously ranked by applying a self-organizing map (SOM) to their characteristics of persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity in order to obtain the Hazard Index (HI). In the present study, the original IRI was substantially improved by allowing the entrance of probabilistic data. A neuroprobabilistic HI was developed by combining SOM and Monte Carlo analysis. In general terms, the deterministic and probabilistic HIs followed a similar pattern: polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and light polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were the pollutants showing the highest and lowest values of HI, respectively. However, the bioaccumulation value of heavy metals notably increased after considering a probability density function to explain the bioaccumulation factor. To check its applicability, a case study was investigated. The probabilistic integral risk was calculated in the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain), where an environmental program has been carried out since 2002. The risk change between 2002 and 2005 was evaluated on the basis of probabilistic data of the levels of various pollutants in soils. The results indicated that the risk of the chemicals under study did not follow a homogeneous tendency. However, the current levels of pollution do not mean a relevant source of health risks for the local population. Moreover, the neuroprobabilistic HI seems to be an adequate tool to be taken into account in risk assessment processes.

  17. Asteroid Risk Assessment: A Probabilistic Approach.

    PubMed

    Reinhardt, Jason C; Chen, Xi; Liu, Wenhao; Manchev, Petar; Paté-Cornell, M Elisabeth

    2016-02-01

    Following the 2013 Chelyabinsk event, the risks posed by asteroids attracted renewed interest, from both the scientific and policy-making communities. It reminded the world that impacts from near-Earth objects (NEOs), while rare, have the potential to cause great damage to cities and populations. Point estimates of the risk (such as mean numbers of casualties) have been proposed, but because of the low-probability, high-consequence nature of asteroid impacts, these averages provide limited actionable information. While more work is needed to further refine its input distributions (e.g., NEO diameters), the probabilistic model presented in this article allows a more complete evaluation of the risk of NEO impacts because the results are distributions that cover the range of potential casualties. This model is based on a modularized simulation that uses probabilistic inputs to estimate probabilistic risk metrics, including those of rare asteroid impacts. Illustrative results of this analysis are presented for a period of 100 years. As part of this demonstration, we assess the effectiveness of civil defense measures in mitigating the risk of human casualties. We find that they are likely to be beneficial but not a panacea. We also compute the probability-but not the consequences-of an impact with global effects ("cataclysm"). We conclude that there is a continued need for NEO observation, and for analyses of the feasibility and risk-reduction effectiveness of space missions designed to deflect or destroy asteroids that threaten the Earth. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Space-Derived Phenology, Retrieval and Use for Drought and Food Security Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meroni, M.; Kayitakire, F.; Rembold, F.; Urbano, F.; Schucknecht, A.; LEO, O.

    2014-12-01

    Monitoring vegetation conditions is a critical activity for assessing food security in Africa. Rural populations relying on rain-fed agriculture and livestock grazing are highly exposed to large seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in water availability. Monitoring the state, evolution, and productivity of vegetation, crops and pastures in particular, is important to conduct food emergency responses and plan for a long-term, resilient, development strategy in this area. The timing of onset, the duration, and the intensity of vegetation growth can be retrieved from space observations and used for food security monitoring to assess seasonal vegetation development and forecast the likely seasonal outcome when the season is ongoing. In this contribution we present a set of phenology-based remote sensing studies in support to food security analysis. Key phenological indicators are retrieved using a model-fit approach applied to SOPT-VEGETATION FAPAR time series. Remote-sensing phenology is first used to estimate i) the impact of the drought in the Horn of Africa, ii) crop yield in Tunisia and, iii) rangeland biomass production in Niger. Then the impact of the start and length of vegetation growing period on the total biomass production is assessed over the Sahel. Finally, a probabilistic approach using phenological information to forecast the occurrence of an end-of-season biomass production deficit is applied over the Sahel to map hot-spots of drought-related risk.

  19. Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU).

    PubMed

    Fan, Ming; Thongsri, Tepwitoon; Axe, Lisa; Tyson, Trevor A

    2005-06-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites.

  20. Probabilistic risk models for multiple disturbances: an example of forest insects and wildfires

    Treesearch

    Haiganoush K. Preisler; Alan A. Ager; Jane L. Hayes

    2010-01-01

    Building probabilistic risk models for highly random forest disturbances like wildfire and forest insect outbreaks is a challenging. Modeling the interactions among natural disturbances is even more difficult. In the case of wildfire and forest insects, we looked at the probability of a large fire given an insect outbreak and also the incidence of insect outbreaks...

  1. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components, part 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The technical effort and computer code enhancements performed during the sixth year of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods program are summarized. Various capabilities are described to probabilistically combine structural response and structural resistance to compute component reliability. A library of structural resistance models is implemented in the Numerical Evaluations of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) code that included fatigue, fracture, creep, multi-factor interaction, and other important effects. In addition, a user interface was developed for user-defined resistance models. An accurate and efficient reliability method was developed and was successfully implemented in the NESSUS code to compute component reliability based on user-selected response and resistance models. A risk module was developed to compute component risk with respect to cost, performance, or user-defined criteria. The new component risk assessment capabilities were validated and demonstrated using several examples. Various supporting methodologies were also developed in support of component risk assessment.

  2. Evidence-based risk communication: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Zipkin, Daniella A; Umscheid, Craig A; Keating, Nancy L; Allen, Elizabeth; Aung, KoKo; Beyth, Rebecca; Kaatz, Scott; Mann, Devin M; Sussman, Jeremy B; Korenstein, Deborah; Schardt, Connie; Nagi, Avishek; Sloane, Richard; Feldstein, David A

    2014-08-19

    Effective communication of risks and benefits to patients is critical for shared decision making. To review the comparative effectiveness of methods of communicating probabilistic information to patients that maximize their cognitive and behavioral outcomes. PubMed (1966 to March 2014) and CINAHL, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (1966 to December 2011) using several keywords and structured terms. Prospective or cross-sectional studies that recruited patients or healthy volunteers and compared any method of communicating probabilistic information with another method. Two independent reviewers extracted study characteristics and assessed risk of bias. Eighty-four articles, representing 91 unique studies, evaluated various methods of numerical and visual risk display across several risk scenarios and with diverse outcome measures. Studies showed that visual aids (icon arrays and bar graphs) improved patients' understanding and satisfaction. Presentations including absolute risk reductions were better than those including relative risk reductions for maximizing accuracy and seemed less likely than presentations with relative risk reductions to influence decisions to accept therapy. The presentation of numbers needed to treat reduced understanding. Comparative effects of presentations of frequencies (such as 1 in 5) versus event rates (percentages, such as 20%) were inconclusive. Most studies were small and highly variable in terms of setting, context, and methods of administering interventions. Visual aids and absolute risk formats can improve patients' understanding of probabilistic information, whereas numbers needed to treat can lessen their understanding. Due to study heterogeneity, the superiority of any single method for conveying probabilistic information is not established, but there are several good options to help clinicians communicate with patients. None.

  3. An Integrated Probabilistic-Fuzzy Assessment of Uncertainty Associated with Human Health Risk to MSW Landfill Leachate Contamination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mishra, H.; Karmakar, S.; Kumar, R.

    2016-12-01

    Risk assessment will not remain simple when it involves multiple uncertain variables. Uncertainties in risk assessment majorly results from (1) the lack of knowledge of input variable (mostly random), and (2) data obtained from expert judgment or subjective interpretation of available information (non-random). An integrated probabilistic-fuzzy health risk approach has been proposed for simultaneous treatment of random and non-random uncertainties associated with input parameters of health risk model. The LandSim 2.5, a landfill simulator, has been used to simulate the Turbhe landfill (Navi Mumbai, India) activities for various time horizons. Further the LandSim simulated six heavy metals concentration in ground water have been used in the health risk model. The water intake, exposure duration, exposure frequency, bioavailability and average time are treated as fuzzy variables, while the heavy metals concentration and body weight are considered as probabilistic variables. Identical alpha-cut and reliability level are considered for fuzzy and probabilistic variables respectively and further, uncertainty in non-carcinogenic human health risk is estimated using ten thousand Monte-Carlo simulations (MCS). This is the first effort in which all the health risk variables have been considered as non-deterministic for the estimation of uncertainty in risk output. The non-exceedance probability of Hazard Index (HI), summation of hazard quotients, of heavy metals of Co, Cu, Mn, Ni, Zn and Fe for male and female population have been quantified and found to be high (HI>1) for all the considered time horizon, which evidently shows possibility of adverse health effects on the population residing near Turbhe landfill.

  4. On a true value of risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kozine, Igor

    2018-04-01

    The paper suggests looking on probabilistic risk quantities and concepts through the prism of accepting one of the views: whether a true value of risk exists or not. It is argued that discussions until now have been primarily focused on closely related topics that are different from the topic of the current paper. The paper examines operational consequences of adhering to each of the views and contrasts them. It is demonstrated that operational differences on how and what probabilistic measures can be assessed and how they can be interpreted appear tangible. In particular, this concerns prediction intervals, the use of Byes rule, models of complete ignorance, hierarchical models of uncertainty, assignment of probabilities over possibility space and interpretation of derived probabilistic measures. Behavioural implications of favouring the either view are also briefly described.

  5. Costing the satellite power system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

  6. Comparative assessment of analytical approaches to quantify the risk for introduction of rare animal diseases: the example of avian influenza in Spain.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Vizcaíno, Fernando; Perez, Andrés; Martínez-López, Beatriz; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, José Manuel

    2012-08-01

    Trade of animals and animal products imposes an uncertain and variable risk for exotic animal diseases introduction into importing countries. Risk analysis provides importing countries with an objective, transparent, and internationally accepted method for assessing that risk. Over the last decades, European Union countries have conducted probabilistic risk assessments quite frequently to quantify the risk for rare animal diseases introduction into their territories. Most probabilistic animal health risk assessments have been typically classified into one-level and multilevel binomial models. One-level models are more simple than multilevel models because they assume that animals or products originate from one single population. However, it is unknown whether such simplification may result in substantially different results compared to those obtained through the use of multilevel models. Here, data used on a probabilistic multilevel binomial model formulated to assess the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into Spain were reanalyzed using a one-level binomial model and their outcomes were compared. An alternative ordinal model is also proposed here, which makes use of simpler assumptions and less information compared to those required by traditional one-level and multilevel approaches. Results suggest that, at least under certain circumstances, results of the one-level and ordinal approaches are similar to those obtained using multilevel models. Consequently, we argue that, when data are insufficient to run traditional probabilistic models, the ordinal approach presented here may be a suitable alternative to rank exporting countries in terms of the risk that they impose for the spread of rare animal diseases into disease-free countries. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

    PubMed

    Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

    2015-12-15

    An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Ecohydrology of agroecosystems: probabilistic description of yield reduction risk under limited water availability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vico, Giulia; Porporato, Amilcare

    2013-04-01

    Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability and stabilize yields. Irrigated agriculture currently provides 40% of food production and its relevance is expected to further increase in the near future, in face of the projected alterations of rainfall patterns and increase in food, fiber, and biofuel demand. Because of the significant investments and water requirements involved in irrigation, strategic choices are needed to preserve productivity and profitability, while maintaining a sustainable water management - a nontrivial task given the unpredictability of the rainfall forcing. To facilitate decision making under uncertainty, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season and yields at harvest. Based on these linkages, the probability density function of yields and corresponding probability density function of required irrigation volumes, as well as the probability density function of yields under the most common case of limited water availability are obtained analytically, as a function of irrigation strategy, climate, soil and crop parameters. The full probabilistic description of the frequency of occurrence of yields and water requirements is a crucial tool for decision making under uncertainty, e.g., via expected utility analysis. Furthermore, the knowledge of the probability density function of yield allows us to quantify the yield reduction hydrologic risk. Two risk indices are defined and quantified: the long-term risk index, suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, and the real-time risk index, providing a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season in an agricultural setting. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios. Hence, the proposed probabilistic framework provides a quantitative tool to assess the impact of irrigation strategy and water allocation on the risk of not meeting a certain target yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs.

  9. Development, Application, and Implementation of RAMCAP to Characterize Nuclear Power Plant Risk From Terrorism

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gaertner, John P.; Teagarden, Grant A.

    2006-07-01

    In response to increased interest in risk-informed decision making regarding terrorism, EPRI and ERIN Engineering were selected by U.S. DHS and ASME to develop and demonstrate the RAMCAP method for nuclear power plant (NPP) risk assessment. The objective is to characterize plant-specific NPP risk for risk management opportunities and to provide consistent information for DHS decision making. This paper is an update of this project presented at the American Nuclear Society (ANS) International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA05) in September, 2005. The method uses a characterization of risk as a function of Consequence, Vulnerability, and Threat. For eachmore » site, worst case scenarios are developed for each of sixteen benchmark threats. Nuclear RAMCAP hypothesizes that the intent of the perpetrator is to cause offsite radiological consequences. Specific targets are the reactor core, the spent fuel pool, and nuclear spent fuel in a dry storage facility (ISFSI). Results for each scenario are presented as conditional risk for financial loss, early fatalities and early injuries. Expected consequences for each scenario are quantified, while vulnerability is estimated on a relative likelihood scale. Insights for other societal risks are provided. Although threat frequencies are not provided, target attractiveness and threat deterrence are estimated. To assure efficiency, completeness, and consistency; results are documented using standard RAMCAP Evaluator software. Trial applications were successfully performed at four plant sites. Implementation at all other U.S. commercial sites is underway, supported by the Nuclear Sector Coordinating Council (NSCC). Insights from RAMCAP results at 23 U.S. plants completed to date have been compiled and presented to the NSCC. Results are site-specific. Physical security barriers, an armed security force, preparedness for design-basis threats, rugged design against natural hazards, multiple barriers between fuel and environment, accident mitigation capability, severe accident management procedures, and offsite emergency plans are risk-beneficial against all threat types. (authors)« less

  10. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

  11. Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

    1992-01-01

    The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

  12. Advanced Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Technical Exchange Meeting

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, Curtis

    2013-09-01

    During FY13, the INL developed an advanced SMR PRA framework which has been described in the report Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Technical Framework Specification, INL/EXT-13-28974 (April 2013). In this framework, the various areas are considered: Probabilistic models to provide information specific to advanced SMRs Representation of specific SMR design issues such as having co-located modules and passive safety features Use of modern open-source and readily available analysis methods Internal and external events resulting in impacts to safety All-hazards considerations Methods to support the identification of design vulnerabilities Mechanistic and probabilistic data needs to support modelingmore » and tools In order to describe this framework more fully and obtain feedback on the proposed approaches, the INL hosted a technical exchange meeting during August 2013. This report describes the outcomes of that meeting.« less

  13. Common Randomness Principles of Secrecy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyagi, Himanshu

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation concerns the secure processing of distributed data by multiple terminals, using interactive public communication among themselves, in order to accomplish a given computational task. In the setting of a probabilistic multiterminal source model in which several terminals observe correlated random signals, we analyze secure…

  14. Probabilistic evaluation of uncertainties and risks in aerospace components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shah, A. R.; Shiao, M. C.; Nagpal, V. K.; Chamis, C. C.

    1992-01-01

    A methodology is presented for the computational simulation of primitive variable uncertainties, and attention is given to the simulation of specific aerospace components. Specific examples treated encompass a probabilistic material behavior model, as well as static, dynamic, and fatigue/damage analyses of a turbine blade in a mistuned bladed rotor in the SSME turbopumps. An account is given of the use of the NESSES probabilistic FEM analysis CFD code.

  15. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  16. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stamatelatos,Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Apostolakis, George; Everline, Chester; Guarro, Sergio; Mathias, Donovan; Mosleh, Ali; Paulos, Todd; Riha, David; Smith, Curtis; hide

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

  17. Probability and possibility-based representations of uncertainty in fault tree analysis.

    PubMed

    Flage, Roger; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico; Aven, Terje

    2013-01-01

    Expert knowledge is an important source of input to risk analysis. In practice, experts might be reluctant to characterize their knowledge and the related (epistemic) uncertainty using precise probabilities. The theory of possibility allows for imprecision in probability assignments. The associated possibilistic representation of epistemic uncertainty can be combined with, and transformed into, a probabilistic representation; in this article, we show this with reference to a simple fault tree analysis. We apply an integrated (hybrid) probabilistic-possibilistic computational framework for the joint propagation of the epistemic uncertainty on the values of the (limiting relative frequency) probabilities of the basic events of the fault tree, and we use possibility-probability (probability-possibility) transformations for propagating the epistemic uncertainty within purely probabilistic and possibilistic settings. The results of the different approaches (hybrid, probabilistic, and possibilistic) are compared with respect to the representation of uncertainty about the top event (limiting relative frequency) probability. Both the rationale underpinning the approaches and the computational efforts they require are critically examined. We conclude that the approaches relevant in a given setting depend on the purpose of the risk analysis, and that further research is required to make the possibilistic approaches operational in a risk analysis context. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. What is the Value Added to Adaptation Planning by Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, R. L.

    2008-12-01

    Probabilistic projections of climate change offer new sources of risk information to support regional impacts assessment and adaptation options appraisal. However, questions continue to surround how best to apply these scenarios in a practical context, and whether the added complexity and computational burden leads to more robust decision-making. This paper provides an overview of recent efforts in the UK to 'bench-test' frameworks for employing probabilistic projections ahead of the release of the next generation, UKCIP08 projections (in November 2008). This is involving close collaboration between government agencies, research and stakeholder communities. Three examples will be cited to illustrate how probabilistic projections are already informing decisions about future flood risk management in London, water resource planning in trial river basins, and assessments of risks from rising water temperatures to Atlantic salmon stocks in southern England. When compared with conventional deterministic scenarios, ensemble projections allow exploration of a wider range of management options and highlight timescales for implementing adaptation measures. Users of probabilistic scenarios must keep in mind that other uncertainties (e.g., due to impacts model structure and parameterisation) should be handled in an equally rigorous way to those arising from climate models and emission scenarios. Finally, it is noted that a commitment to long-term monitoring is also critical for tracking environmental change, testing model projections, and for evaluating the success (or not) of any scenario-led interventions.

  19. Probabilistic risk analysis of building contamination.

    PubMed

    Bolster, D T; Tartakovsky, D M

    2008-10-01

    We present a general framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of building contamination. PRA provides a powerful tool for the rigorous quantification of risk in contamination of building spaces. A typical PRA starts by identifying relevant components of a system (e.g. ventilation system components, potential sources of contaminants, remediation methods) and proceeds by using available information and statistical inference to estimate the probabilities of their failure. These probabilities are then combined by means of fault-tree analyses to yield probabilistic estimates of the risk of system failure (e.g. building contamination). A sensitivity study of PRAs can identify features and potential problems that need to be addressed with the most urgency. Often PRAs are amenable to approximations, which can significantly simplify the approach. All these features of PRA are presented in this paper via a simple illustrative example, which can be built upon in further studies. The tool presented here can be used to design and maintain adequate ventilation systems to minimize exposure of occupants to contaminants.

  20. [Uncertainty characterization approaches for ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon in Taihu Lake].

    PubMed

    Guo, Guang-Hui; Wu, Feng-Chang; He, Hong-Ping; Feng, Cheng-Lian; Zhang, Rui-Qing; Li, Hui-Xian

    2012-04-01

    Probabilistic approaches, such as Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), and non-probabilistic approaches, such as interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and variance propagation, were used to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake. The results from MCS and LHS were represented by probability distributions of hazard quotients of sigma PAH8 in surface waters of Taihu Lake. The probabilistic distribution of hazard quotient were obtained from the results of MCS and LHS based on probabilistic theory, which indicated that the confidence intervals of hazard quotient at 90% confidence level were in the range of 0.000 18-0.89 and 0.000 17-0.92, with the mean of 0.37 and 0.35, respectively. In addition, the probabilities that the hazard quotients from MCS and LHS exceed the threshold of 1 were 9.71% and 9.68%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis suggested the toxicity data contributed the most to the resulting distribution of quotients. The hazard quotient of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms ranged from 0.000 17 to 0.99 using interval analysis. The confidence interval was (0.001 5, 0.016 3) at the 90% confidence level calculated using fuzzy set theory, and the confidence interval was (0.000 16, 0.88) at the 90% confidence level based on the variance propagation. These results indicated that the ecological risk of sigma PAH8 to aquatic organisms were low. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations, which was based on different theory; therefore, the appropriate method should be selected on a case-by-case to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the ecological risk assessment. Approach based on the probabilistic theory was selected as the most appropriate method to assess the risk of sigma PAH8 in surface water of Taihu Lake, which provided an important scientific foundation of risk management and control for organic pollutants in water.

  1. Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klügel, J.

    2006-12-01

    Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

  2. Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

    2015-01-01

    Since the Space Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, NASA has extensively used probabilistic analysis methods to assess, understand, and communicate the risk of space launch vehicles. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), used in the nuclear industry, is one of the probabilistic analysis methods NASA utilizes to assess Loss of Mission (LOM) and Loss of Crew (LOC) risk for launch vehicles. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment that uses a combination of fault trees, event trees, event sequence diagrams, and probability distributions to analyze the risk of a system, a process, or an activity. It is a process designed to answer three basic questions: 1) what can go wrong that would lead to loss or degraded performance (i.e., scenarios involving undesired consequences of interest), 2) how likely is it (probabilities), and 3) what is the severity of the degradation (consequences). Since the Challenger accident, PRA has been used in supporting decisions regarding safety upgrades for launch vehicles. Another area that was given a lot of emphasis at NASA after the Challenger accident is reliability engineering. Reliability engineering has been a critical design function at NASA since the early Apollo days. However, after the Challenger accident, quantitative reliability analysis and reliability predictions were given more scrutiny because of their importance in understanding failure mechanism and quantifying the probability of failure, which are key elements in resolving technical issues, performing design trades, and implementing design improvements. Although PRA and reliability are both probabilistic in nature and, in some cases, use the same tools, they are two different activities. Specifically, reliability engineering is a broad design discipline that deals with loss of function and helps understand failure mechanism and improve component and system design. PRA is a system scenario based risk assessment process intended to assess the risk scenarios that could lead to a major/top undesirable system event, and to identify those scenarios that are high-risk drivers. PRA output is critical to support risk informed decisions concerning system design. This paper describes the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline in detail. It discusses their differences and similarities and how they work together as complementary analyses to support the design and risk assessment processes. Lessons learned, applications, and case studies in both areas are also discussed in the paper to demonstrate and explain these differences and similarities.

  3. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Model for Organ Doses and Acute Health Effects of Astronauts on Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Hu, Shaowen; Nounu, Hatem N.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) is a major concern during EVAs on the lunar surface and in Earth-to-Lunar transit. 15% of crew times may be on EVA with minimal radiation shielding. Therefore, an accurate assessment of SPE occurrence probability is required for the mission planning by NASA. We apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for radiation protection of crews and optimization of lunar mission planning.

  5. Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Xuefei; Zhang, Jingdan; Zhou, S. Kevin; Rasselkorde, El Mahjoub; Abbasi, Waheed A.

    2014-02-01

    The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.

  6. Risk-based Spacecraft Fire Safety Experiments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Apostolakis, G.; Catton, I.; Issacci, F.; Paulos, T.; Jones, S.; Paxton, K.; Paul, M.

    1992-01-01

    Viewgraphs on risk-based spacecraft fire safety experiments are presented. Spacecraft fire risk can never be reduced to a zero probability. Probabilistic risk assessment is a tool to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

  7. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  8. A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Dose-Response Assessment of Human Health Effects.

    PubMed

    Chiu, Weihsueh A; Slob, Wout

    2015-12-01

    When chemical health hazards have been identified, probabilistic dose-response assessment ("hazard characterization") quantifies uncertainty and/or variability in toxicity as a function of human exposure. Existing probabilistic approaches differ for different types of endpoints or modes-of-action, lacking a unifying framework. We developed a unified framework for probabilistic dose-response assessment. We established a framework based on four principles: a) individual and population dose responses are distinct; b) dose-response relationships for all (including quantal) endpoints can be recast as relating to an underlying continuous measure of response at the individual level; c) for effects relevant to humans, "effect metrics" can be specified to define "toxicologically equivalent" sizes for this underlying individual response; and d) dose-response assessment requires making adjustments and accounting for uncertainty and variability. We then derived a step-by-step probabilistic approach for dose-response assessment of animal toxicology data similar to how nonprobabilistic reference doses are derived, illustrating the approach with example non-cancer and cancer datasets. Probabilistically derived exposure limits are based on estimating a "target human dose" (HDMI), which requires risk management-informed choices for the magnitude (M) of individual effect being protected against, the remaining incidence (I) of individuals with effects ≥ M in the population, and the percent confidence. In the example datasets, probabilistically derived 90% confidence intervals for HDMI values span a 40- to 60-fold range, where I = 1% of the population experiences ≥ M = 1%-10% effect sizes. Although some implementation challenges remain, this unified probabilistic framework can provide substantially more complete and transparent characterization of chemical hazards and support better-informed risk management decisions.

  9. Development of probabilistic multimedia multipathway computer codes.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Yu, C.; LePoire, D.; Gnanapragasam, E.

    2002-01-01

    The deterministic multimedia dose/risk assessment codes RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD have been widely used for many years for evaluation of sites contaminated with residual radioactive materials. The RESRAD code applies to the cleanup of sites (soils) and the RESRAD-BUILD code applies to the cleanup of buildings and structures. This work describes the procedure used to enhance the deterministic RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes for probabilistic dose analysis. A six-step procedure was used in developing default parameter distributions and the probabilistic analysis modules. These six steps include (1) listing and categorizing parameters; (2) ranking parameters; (3) developing parameter distributions; (4) testing parameter distributionsmore » for probabilistic analysis; (5) developing probabilistic software modules; and (6) testing probabilistic modules and integrated codes. The procedures used can be applied to the development of other multimedia probabilistic codes. The probabilistic versions of RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes provide tools for studying the uncertainty in dose assessment caused by uncertain input parameters. The parameter distribution data collected in this work can also be applied to other multimedia assessment tasks and multimedia computer codes.« less

  10. Probabilistic Priority Message Checking Modeling Based on Controller Area Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, Cheng-Min

    Although the probabilistic model checking tool called PRISM has been applied in many communication systems, such as wireless local area network, Bluetooth, and ZigBee, the technique is not used in a controller area network (CAN). In this paper, we use PRISM to model the mechanism of priority messages for CAN because the mechanism has allowed CAN to become the leader in serial communication for automobile and industry control. Through modeling CAN, it is easy to analyze the characteristic of CAN for further improving the security and efficiency of automobiles. The Markov chain model helps us to model the behaviour of priority messages.

  11. Risk assessment for construction projects of transport infrastructure objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Titarenko, Boris

    2017-10-01

    The paper analyzes and compares different methods of risk assessment for construction projects of transport objects. The management of such type of projects demands application of special probabilistic methods due to large level of uncertainty of their implementation. Risk management in the projects requires the use of probabilistic and statistical methods. The aim of the work is to develop a methodology for using traditional methods in combination with robust methods that allow obtaining reliable risk assessments in projects. The robust approach is based on the principle of maximum likelihood and in assessing the risk allows the researcher to obtain reliable results in situations of great uncertainty. The application of robust procedures allows to carry out a quantitative assessment of the main risk indicators of projects when solving the tasks of managing innovation-investment projects. Calculation of damage from the onset of a risky event is possible by any competent specialist. And an assessment of the probability of occurrence of a risky event requires the involvement of special probabilistic methods based on the proposed robust approaches. Practice shows the effectiveness and reliability of results. The methodology developed in the article can be used to create information technologies and their application in automated control systems for complex projects.

  12. Probabilistic Assessment of Cancer Risk for Astronauts on Lunar Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    During future lunar missions, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon transit. NASA s new lunar program anticipates that up to 15% of crew time may be on EVA, with minimal radiation shielding. For the operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration, a probabilistic risk assessment approach is essential for mission planning and design. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, a typical hazard function for SPE occurrence was defined using a non-homogeneous Poisson model as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions ranging from the 5th to 95th percentile of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated. Organ doses corresponding to particle fluences at the median and at the 95th percentile for a specified mission period were assessed using NASA s baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The cancer fatality risk for astronauts as functions of age, gender, and solar cycle activity were then analyzed. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30- day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated. Future work will involve using this probabilistic risk assessment approach to SPE forecasting, combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks.

  13. A triangular climate-based decision model to forecast crop anomalies in Kenya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimarães Nobre, G.; Davenport, F.; Veldkamp, T.; Jongman, B.; Funk, C. C.; Husak, G. J.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    By the end of 2017, the world is expected to experience unprecedented demands for food assistance where, across 45 countries, some 81 million people will face a food security crisis. Prolonged droughts in Eastern Africa are playing a major role in these crises. To mitigate famine risk and save lives, government bodies and international donor organisations are increasingly building up efforts to resolve conflicts and secure humanitarian relief. Disaster-relief and financing organizations traditionally focus on emergency response, providing aid after an extreme drought event, instead of taking actions in advance based on early warning. One of the reasons for this approach is that the seasonal risk information provided by early warning systems is often considered highly uncertain. Overcoming the reluctance to act based on early warnings greatly relies on understanding the risk of acting in vain, and assessing the cost-effectiveness of early actions. This research develops a triangular climate-based decision model for multiple seasonal time-scales to forecast strong anomalies in crop yield shortages in Kenya using Casual Discovery Algorithms and Fast and Frugal Decision Trees. This Triangular decision model (1) estimates the causality and strength of the relationship between crop yields and hydro climatological predictors (extracted from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network's data archive) during the crop growing season; (2) provides probabilistic forecasts of crop yield shortages in multiple time scales before the harvesting season; and (3) evaluates the cost-effectiveness of different financial mechanisms to respond to early warning indicators of crop yield shortages obtained from the model. Furthermore, we reflect on how such a model complements and advances the current state-of-art FEWS Net system, and examine its potential application to improve the management of agricultural risks in Kenya.

  14. A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing Ecological Risk-Based Evidence

    EPA Science Inventory

    Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for e...

  15. Seismic, high wind, tornado, and probabilistic risk assessments of the High Flux Isotope Reactor

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harris, S.P.; Stover, R.L.; Hashimoto, P.S.

    1989-01-01

    Natural phenomena analyses were performed on the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) Deterministic and probabilistic evaluations were made to determine the risks resulting from earthquakes, high winds, and tornadoes. Analytic methods in conjunction with field evaluations and an earthquake experience data base evaluation methods were used to provide more realistic results in a shorter amount of time. Plant modifications completed in preparation for HFIR restart and potential future enhancements are discussed. 5 figs.

  16. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  17. Forecasting risk along a river basin using a probabilistic and deterministic model for environmental risk assessment of effluents through ecotoxicological evaluation and GIS.

    PubMed

    Gutiérrez, Simón; Fernandez, Carlos; Barata, Carlos; Tarazona, José Vicente

    2009-12-20

    This work presents a computer model for Risk Assessment of Basins by Ecotoxicological Evaluation (RABETOX). The model is based on whole effluent toxicity testing and water flows along a specific river basin. It is capable of estimating the risk along a river segment using deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The Henares River Basin was selected as a case study to demonstrate the importance of seasonal hydrological variations in Mediterranean regions. As model inputs, two different ecotoxicity tests (the miniaturized Daphnia magna acute test and the D.magna feeding test) were performed on grab samples from 5 waste water treatment plant effluents. Also used as model inputs were flow data from the past 25 years, water velocity measurements and precise distance measurements using Geographical Information Systems (GIS). The model was implemented into a spreadsheet and the results were interpreted and represented using GIS in order to facilitate risk communication. To better understand the bioassays results, the effluents were screened through SPME-GC/MS analysis. The deterministic model, performed each month during one calendar year, showed a significant seasonal variation of risk while revealing that September represents the worst-case scenario with values up to 950 Risk Units. This classifies the entire area of study for the month of September as "sublethal significant risk for standard species". The probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo analysis was performed on 7 different forecast points distributed along the Henares River. A 0% probability of finding "low risk" was found at all forecast points with a more than 50% probability of finding "potential risk for sensitive species". The values obtained through both the deterministic and probabilistic approximations reveal the presence of certain substances, which might be causing sublethal effects in the aquatic species present in the Henares River.

  18. A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Dose–Response Assessment of Human Health Effects

    PubMed Central

    Slob, Wout

    2015-01-01

    Background When chemical health hazards have been identified, probabilistic dose–response assessment (“hazard characterization”) quantifies uncertainty and/or variability in toxicity as a function of human exposure. Existing probabilistic approaches differ for different types of endpoints or modes-of-action, lacking a unifying framework. Objectives We developed a unified framework for probabilistic dose–response assessment. Methods We established a framework based on four principles: a) individual and population dose responses are distinct; b) dose–response relationships for all (including quantal) endpoints can be recast as relating to an underlying continuous measure of response at the individual level; c) for effects relevant to humans, “effect metrics” can be specified to define “toxicologically equivalent” sizes for this underlying individual response; and d) dose–response assessment requires making adjustments and accounting for uncertainty and variability. We then derived a step-by-step probabilistic approach for dose–response assessment of animal toxicology data similar to how nonprobabilistic reference doses are derived, illustrating the approach with example non-cancer and cancer datasets. Results Probabilistically derived exposure limits are based on estimating a “target human dose” (HDMI), which requires risk management–informed choices for the magnitude (M) of individual effect being protected against, the remaining incidence (I) of individuals with effects ≥ M in the population, and the percent confidence. In the example datasets, probabilistically derived 90% confidence intervals for HDMI values span a 40- to 60-fold range, where I = 1% of the population experiences ≥ M = 1%–10% effect sizes. Conclusions Although some implementation challenges remain, this unified probabilistic framework can provide substantially more complete and transparent characterization of chemical hazards and support better-informed risk management decisions. Citation Chiu WA, Slob W. 2015. A unified probabilistic framework for dose–response assessment of human health effects. Environ Health Perspect 123:1241–1254; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409385 PMID:26006063

  19. System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

  20. Risk-Informed Safety Assurance and Probabilistic Assessment of Mission-Critical Software-Intensive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Guarro, Sergio B.

    2010-01-01

    This report validates and documents the detailed features and practical application of the framework for software intensive digital systems risk assessment and risk-informed safety assurance presented in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for Managers and Practitioner. This framework, called herein the "Context-based Software Risk Model" (CSRM), enables the assessment of the contribution of software and software-intensive digital systems to overall system risk, in a manner which is entirely compatible and integrated with the format of a "standard" Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), as currently documented and applied for NASA missions and applications. The CSRM also provides a risk-informed path and criteria for conducting organized and systematic digital system and software testing so that, within this risk-informed paradigm, the achievement of a quantitatively defined level of safety and mission success assurance may be targeted and demonstrated. The framework is based on the concept of context-dependent software risk scenarios and on the modeling of such scenarios via the use of traditional PRA techniques - i.e., event trees and fault trees - in combination with more advanced modeling devices such as the Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) or other dynamic logic-modeling representations. The scenarios can be synthesized and quantified in a conditional logic and probabilistic formulation. The application of the CSRM method documented in this report refers to the MiniAERCam system designed and developed by the NASA Johnson Space Center.

  1. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  2. Proposal of a method for evaluating tsunami risk using response-surface methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukutani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Information on probabilistic tsunami inundation hazards is needed to define and evaluate tsunami risk. Several methods for calculating these hazards have been proposed (e.g. Løvholt et al. (2012), Thio (2012), Fukutani et al. (2014), Goda et al. (2015)). However, these methods are inefficient, and their calculation cost is high, since they require multiple tsunami numerical simulations, therefore lacking versatility. In this study, we proposed a simpler method for tsunami risk evaluation using response-surface methodology. Kotani et al. (2016) proposed an evaluation method for the probabilistic distribution of tsunami wave-height using a response-surface methodology. We expanded their study and developed a probabilistic distribution of tsunami inundation depth. We set the depth (x1) and the slip (x2) of an earthquake fault as explanatory variables and tsunami inundation depth (y) as an object variable. Subsequently, tsunami risk could be evaluated by conducting a Monte Carlo simulation, assuming that the generation probability of an earthquake follows a Poisson distribution, the probability distribution of tsunami inundation depth follows the distribution derived from a response-surface, and the damage probability of a target follows a log normal distribution. We applied the proposed method to a wood building located on the coast of Tokyo Bay. We implemented a regression analysis based on the results of 25 tsunami numerical calculations and developed a response-surface, which was defined as y=ax1+bx2+c (a:0.2615, b:3.1763, c=-1.1802). We assumed proper probabilistic distribution for earthquake generation, inundation height, and vulnerability. Based on these probabilistic distributions, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations of 1,000,000 years. We clarified that the expected damage probability of the studied wood building is 22.5%, assuming that an earthquake occurs. The proposed method is therefore a useful and simple way to evaluate tsunami risk using a response-surface and Monte Carlo simulation without conducting multiple tsunami numerical simulations.

  3. A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

  4. Probabilistic framework for product design optimization and risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keski-Rahkonen, J. K.

    2018-05-01

    Probabilistic methods have gradually gained ground within engineering practices but currently it is still the industry standard to use deterministic safety margin approaches to dimensioning components and qualitative methods to manage product risks. These methods are suitable for baseline design work but quantitative risk management and product reliability optimization require more advanced predictive approaches. Ample research has been published on how to predict failure probabilities for mechanical components and furthermore to optimize reliability through life cycle cost analysis. This paper reviews the literature for existing methods and tries to harness their best features and simplify the process to be applicable in practical engineering work. Recommended process applies Monte Carlo method on top of load-resistance models to estimate failure probabilities. Furthermore, it adds on existing literature by introducing a practical framework to use probabilistic models in quantitative risk management and product life cycle costs optimization. The main focus is on mechanical failure modes due to the well-developed methods used to predict these types of failures. However, the same framework can be applied on any type of failure mode as long as predictive models can be developed.

  5. The Probabilistic Nature of Preferential Choice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieskamp, Jorg

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes…

  6. Comparative Probabilistic Assessment of Occupational Pesticide Exposures Based on Regulatory Assessments.

    PubMed

    Pouzou, Jane G; Cullen, Alison C; Yost, Michael G; Kissel, John C; Fenske, Richard A

    2017-11-06

    Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database along with data from the Exposure Factors Handbook and other sources to calculate exposure rates for three different neurotoxic compounds (azinphos methyl, acetamiprid, emamectin benzoate) across four pesticide-handling scenarios. Probabilistic estimates of doses were compared with the no observable effect levels used in the EPA occupational risk assessments. Some percentage of workers were predicted to exceed the level of concern for all three compounds: 54% for azinphos methyl, 5% for acetamiprid, and 20% for emamectin benzoate. This finding has implications for pesticide risk assessment and offers an alternative procedure that may be more protective of those at the extremes of exposure than the current approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  7. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thio, H. K.; Løvholt, F.; Harbitz, C. B.; Polet, J.; Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Volpe, M.; Romano, F.; Selva, J.; Piatanesi, A.; Davies, G.; Griffin, J.; Baptista, M. A.; Omira, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Power, W. L.; Salgado Gálvez, M.; Behrens, J.; Yalciner, A. C.; Kanoglu, U.; Pekcan, O.; Ross, S.; Parsons, T.; LeVeque, R. J.; Gonzalez, F. I.; Paris, R.; Shäfer, A.; Canals, M.; Fraser, S. A.; Wei, Y.; Weiss, R.; Zaniboni, F.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Didenkulova, I.; Necmioglu, O.; Suppasri, A.; Lynett, P. J.; Mokhtari, M.; Sørensen, M.; von Hillebrandt-Andrade, C.; Aguirre Ayerbe, I.; Aniel-Quiroga, Í.; Guillas, S.; Macias, J.

    2016-12-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  8. Nine steps to risk-informed wellhead protection and management: Methods and application to the Burgberg Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nowak, W.; Enzenhoefer, R.; Bunk, T.

    2013-12-01

    Wellhead protection zones are commonly delineated via advective travel time analysis without considering any aspects of model uncertainty. In the past decade, research efforts produced quantifiable risk-based safety margins for protection zones. They are based on well vulnerability criteria (e.g., travel times, exposure times, peak concentrations) cast into a probabilistic setting, i.e., they consider model and parameter uncertainty. Practitioners still refrain from applying these new techniques for mainly three reasons. (1) They fear the possibly cost-intensive additional areal demand of probabilistic safety margins, (2) probabilistic approaches are allegedly complex, not readily available, and consume huge computing resources, and (3) uncertainty bounds are fuzzy, whereas final decisions are binary. The primary goal of this study is to show that these reservations are unjustified. We present a straightforward and computationally affordable framework based on a novel combination of well-known tools (e.g., MODFLOW, PEST, Monte Carlo). This framework provides risk-informed decision support for robust and transparent wellhead delineation under uncertainty. Thus, probabilistic risk-informed wellhead protection is possible with methods readily available for practitioners. As vivid proof of concept, we illustrate our key points on a pumped karstic well catchment, located in Germany. In the case study, we show that reliability levels can be increased by re-allocating the existing delineated area at no increase in delineated area. This is achieved by simply swapping delineated low-risk areas against previously non-delineated high-risk areas. Also, we show that further improvements may often be available at only low additional delineation area. Depending on the context, increases or reductions of delineated area directly translate to costs and benefits, if the land is priced, or if land owners need to be compensated for land use restrictions.

  9. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorito, S.; Basili, R.; Harbitz, C. B.; Løvholt, F.; Polet, J.; Thio, H. K.

    2017-12-01

    The tsunamis occurred worldwide in the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but often disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  10. The Global Tsunami Model (GTM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Løvholt, Finn

    2017-04-01

    The large tsunami disasters of the last two decades have highlighted the need for a thorough understanding of the risk posed by relatively infrequent but disastrous tsunamis and the importance of a comprehensive and consistent methodology for quantifying the hazard. In the last few years, several methods for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis have been developed and applied to different parts of the world. In an effort to coordinate and streamline these activities and make progress towards implementing the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR) we have initiated a Global Tsunami Model (GTM) working group with the aim of i) enhancing our understanding of tsunami hazard and risk on a global scale and developing standards and guidelines for it, ii) providing a portfolio of validated tools for probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk assessment at a range of scales, and iii) developing a global tsunami hazard reference model. This GTM initiative has grown out of the tsunami component of the Global Assessment of Risk (GAR15), which has resulted in an initial global model of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk. Started as an informal gathering of scientists interested in advancing tsunami hazard analysis, the GTM is currently in the process of being formalized through letters of interest from participating institutions. The initiative has now been endorsed by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and the World Bank's Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). We will provide an update on the state of the project and the overall technical framework, and discuss the technical issues that are currently being addressed, including earthquake source recurrence models, the use of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty, and preliminary results for a probabilistic global hazard assessment, which is an update of the model included in UNISDR GAR15.

  11. Incorporating linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information in a risk-based approach for ranking contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Pei, Yuansheng

    2010-10-01

    Different types of uncertain information-linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic-exist in site characterization. Their representation and propagation significantly influence the management of contaminated sites. In the absence of a framework with which to properly represent and integrate these quantitative and qualitative inputs together, decision makers cannot fully take advantage of the available and necessary information to identify all the plausible alternatives. A systematic methodology was developed in the present work to incorporate linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information into the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE), a subgroup of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methods for ranking contaminated sites. The identification of criteria based on the paradigm of comparative risk assessment provides a rationale for risk-based prioritization. Uncertain linguistic, probabilistic, and possibilistic information identified in characterizing contaminated sites can be properly represented as numerical values, intervals, probability distributions, and fuzzy sets or possibility distributions, and linguistic variables according to their nature. These different kinds of representation are first transformed into a 2-tuple linguistic representation domain. The propagation of hybrid uncertainties is then carried out in the same domain. This methodology can use the original site information directly as much as possible. The case study shows that this systematic methodology provides more reasonable results. © 2010 SETAC.

  12. Rats bred for high alcohol drinking are more sensitive to delayed and probabilistic outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wilhelm, C J; Mitchell, S H

    2008-10-01

    Alcoholics and heavy drinkers score higher on measures of impulsivity than nonalcoholics and light drinkers. This may be because of factors that predate drug exposure (e.g. genetics). This study examined the role of genetics by comparing impulsivity measures in ethanol-naive rats selectively bred based on their high [high alcohol drinking (HAD)] or low [low alcohol drinking (LAD)] consumption of ethanol. Replicates 1 and 2 of the HAD and LAD rats, developed by the University of Indiana Alcohol Research Center, completed two different discounting tasks. Delay discounting examines sensitivity to rewards that are delayed in time and is commonly used to assess 'choice' impulsivity. Probability discounting examines sensitivity to the uncertain delivery of rewards and has been used to assess risk taking and risk assessment. High alcohol drinking rats discounted delayed and probabilistic rewards more steeply than LAD rats. Discount rates associated with probabilistic and delayed rewards were weakly correlated, while bias was strongly correlated with discount rate in both delay and probability discounting. The results suggest that selective breeding for high alcohol consumption selects for animals that are more sensitive to delayed and probabilistic outcomes. Sensitivity to delayed or probabilistic outcomes may be predictive of future drinking in genetically predisposed individuals.

  13. From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

    2014-05-01

    The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

  14. A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Groundwater-Related Risks at Excavation Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jurado, A.; de Gaspari, F.; Vilarrasa, V.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Bolster, D.

    2010-12-01

    Excavation sites such as those associated with the construction of subway lines, railways and highway tunnels are hazardous places, posing risks to workers, machinery and surrounding buildings. Many of these risks can be groundwater related. In this work we develop a general framework based on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify such risks. This approach is compatible with standard PRA practices and it employs many well-developed risk analysis tools, such as fault trees. The novelty and computational challenges of the proposed approach stem from the reliance on stochastic differential equations, rather than reliability databases, to compute the probabilities of basic events. The general framework is applied to a specific case study in Spain. It is used to estimate and minimize risks for a potential construction site of an underground station for the new subway line in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

  15. Quantification and Formalization of Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-02-01

    Quantification of Information Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 2.4 Language Semantics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46...system behavior observed by users holding low clearances. This policy, or a variant of it, is enforced by many pro- gramming language -based mechanisms...illustrates with a particular programming language (while-programs plus probabilistic choice). The model is extended in §2.5 to programs in which

  16. Risk assessment for furan contamination through the food chain in Belgian children.

    PubMed

    Scholl, Georges; Huybrechts, Inge; Humblet, Marie-France; Scippo, Marie-Louise; De Pauw, Edwin; Eppe, Gauthier; Saegerman, Claude

    2012-08-01

    Young, old, pregnant and immuno-compromised persons are of great concern for risk assessors as they represent the sub-populations most at risk. The present paper focuses on risk assessment linked to furan exposure in children. Only the Belgian population was considered because individual contamination and consumption data that are required for accurate risk assessment were available for Belgian children only. Two risk assessment approaches, the so-called deterministic and probabilistic, were applied and the results were compared for the estimation of daily intake. A significant difference between the average Estimated Daily Intake (EDI) was underlined between the deterministic (419 ng kg⁻¹ body weight (bw) day⁻¹) and the probabilistic (583 ng kg⁻¹ bw day⁻¹) approaches, which results from the mathematical treatment of the null consumption and contamination data. The risk was characterised by two ways: (1) the classical approach by comparison of the EDI to a reference dose (RfD(chronic-oral)) and (2) the most recent approach, namely the Margin of Exposure (MoE) approach. Both reached similar conclusions: the risk level is not of a major concern, but is neither negligible. In the first approach, only 2.7 or 6.6% (respectively in the deterministic and in the probabilistic way) of the studied population presented an EDI above the RfD(chronic-oral). In the second approach, the percentage of children displaying a MoE above 10,000 and below 100 is 3-0% and 20-0.01% in the deterministic and probabilistic modes, respectively. In addition, children were compared to adults and significant differences between the contamination patterns were highlighted. While major contamination was linked to coffee consumption in adults (55%), no item predominantly contributed to the contamination in children. The most important were soups (19%), dairy products (17%), pasta and rice (11%), fruit and potatoes (9% each).

  17. Multi-Hazard Advanced Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Applications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coleman, Justin L.; Bolisetti, Chandu; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

    Design of nuclear power plant (NPP) facilities to resist natural hazards has been a part of the regulatory process from the beginning of the NPP industry in the United States (US), but has evolved substantially over time. The original set of approaches and methods was entirely deterministic in nature and focused on a traditional engineering margins-based approach. However, over time probabilistic and risk-informed approaches were also developed and implemented in US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) guidance and regulation. A defense-in-depth framework has also been incorporated into US regulatory guidance over time. As a result, today, the US regulatory framework incorporatesmore » deterministic and probabilistic approaches for a range of different applications and for a range of natural hazard considerations. This framework will continue to evolve as a result of improved knowledge and newly identified regulatory needs and objectives, most notably in response to the NRC activities developed in response to the 2011 Fukushima accident in Japan. Although the US regulatory framework has continued to evolve over time, the tools, methods and data available to the US nuclear industry to meet the changing requirements have not kept pace. Notably, there is significant room for improvement in the tools and methods available for external event probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which is the principal assessment approach used in risk-informed regulations and risk-informed decision-making applied to natural hazard assessment and design. This is particularly true if PRA is applied to natural hazards other than seismic loading. Development of a new set of tools and methods that incorporate current knowledge, modern best practice, and state-of-the-art computational resources would lead to more reliable assessment of facility risk and risk insights (e.g., the SSCs and accident sequences that are most risk-significant), with less uncertainty and reduced conservatisms.« less

  18. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less computation power. The authors have used this approach for risk assessment towards identification of effectiveness-profitability of risk mitigation measures, using optimization model for resource allocation. Based on the error-computation trade-off, 62-earthquake scenarios are chosen to be used for this purpose.

  19. Challenges on the epidemiological and economic burden of diabetes and hypertension in Mexico.

    PubMed

    Arredondo, Armando; Orozco, Emanuel; Alcalde-Rabanal, Jaqueline; Navarro, Juan; Azar, Alejandra

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological and economic burden of the health services demand due to diabetes and hypertension in Mexico. METHODS Evaluation study based on a time series study that had as a universe of study the assured and uninsured population that demands health services from the three main institutions of the Health System in Mexico: The Health Department, the Mexican Institute of Social Security, and Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers. The financing method was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques for medium case management. In order to estimate the epidemiological changes and financial requirements, a time series of observed cases for diabetes and hypertension 1994-2013 was integrated. Probabilistic models were developed based on the Box-Jenkins technique for the period of 2013-2018 with 95% confidence intervals and p < 0.05. RESULTS Comparing results from 2013 versus 2018, in the five regions, different incremental trends of 14%-17% in epidemiological changes and 58%-66% in the economic burden for both diseases were observed. CONCLUSIONS If the risk factors and the different models of care remained as they currently are in the three institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of greater impact for the Mexican Institute of Social Security, following in order of importance the Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers and lastly the Health Department. The financial needs for both diseases will represent approximately 13%-15% of the total budget allocated to the uninsured population and 15%-17% for the population insured depending on the region.

  20. Challenges on the epidemiological and economic burden of diabetes and hypertension in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Arredondo, Armando; Orozco, Emanuel; Alcalde-Rabanal, Jaqueline; Navarro, Juan; Azar, Alejandra

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the epidemiological and economic burden of the health services demand due to diabetes and hypertension in Mexico. METHODS Evaluation study based on a time series study that had as a universe of study the assured and uninsured population that demands health services from the three main institutions of the Health System in Mexico: The Health Department, the Mexican Institute of Social Security, and Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers. The financing method was based on instrumentation and consensus techniques for medium case management. In order to estimate the epidemiological changes and financial requirements, a time series of observed cases for diabetes and hypertension 1994–2013 was integrated. Probabilistic models were developed based on the Box-Jenkins technique for the period of 2013–2018 with 95% confidence intervals and p < 0.05. RESULTS Comparing results from 2013 versus 2018, in the five regions, different incremental trends of 14%–17% in epidemiological changes and 58%-66% in the economic burden for both diseases were observed. CONCLUSIONS If the risk factors and the different models of care remained as they currently are in the three institutions analyzed, the financial consequences would be of greater impact for the Mexican Institute of Social Security, following in order of importance the Institute of Services and Social Security for State Workers and lastly the Health Department. The financial needs for both diseases will represent approximately 13%–15% of the total budget allocated to the uninsured population and 15%–17% for the population insured depending on the region. PMID:29489993

  1. A novel visualisation tool for climate services: a case study of temperature extremes and human mortality in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, R.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J.; Herrmann, F. R.; Jupp, T. E.; Stephenson, D.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    Users of climate information often require probabilistic information on which to base their decisions. However, communicating information contained within a probabilistic forecast presents a challenge. In this paper we demonstrate a novel visualisation technique to display ternary probabilistic forecasts on a map in order to inform decision making. In this method, ternary probabilistic forecasts, which assign probabilities to a set of three outcomes (e.g. low, medium, and high risk), are considered as a point in a triangle of barycentric coordinates. This allows a unique colour to be assigned to each forecast from a continuum of colours defined on the triangle. Colour saturation increases with information gain relative to the reference forecast (i.e. the long term average). This provides additional information to decision makers compared with conventional methods used in seasonal climate forecasting, where one colour is used to represent one forecast category on a forecast map (e.g. red = ';dry'). We use the tool to present climate-related mortality projections across Europe. Temperature and humidity are related to human mortality via location-specific transfer functions, calculated using historical data. Daily mortality data at the NUTS2 level for 16 countries in Europe were obtain from 1998-2005. Transfer functions were calculated for 54 aggregations in Europe, defined using criteria related to population and climatological similarities. Aggregations are restricted to fall within political boundaries to avoid problems related to varying adaptation policies between countries. A statistical model is fit to cold and warm tails to estimate future mortality using forecast temperatures, in a Bayesian probabilistic framework. Using predefined categories of temperature-related mortality risk, we present maps of probabilistic projections for human mortality at seasonal to decadal time scales. We demonstrate the information gained from using this technique compared to more traditional methods to display ternary probabilistic forecasts. This technique allows decision makers to identify areas where the model predicts with certainty area-specific heat waves or cold snaps, in order to effectively target resources to those areas most at risk, for a given season or year. It is hoped that this visualisation tool will facilitate the interpretation of the probabilistic forecasts not only for public health decision makers but also within a multi-sectoral climate service framework.

  2. Impact of distributed energy resources on the reliability of a critical telecommunications facility.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Robinson, David; Zuffranieri, Jason V.; Atcitty, Christopher B.

    2006-03-01

    This report documents a probabilistic risk assessment of an existing power supply system at a large telecommunications office. The focus is on characterizing the increase in the reliability of power supply through the use of two alternative power configurations. Telecommunications has been identified by the Department of Homeland Security as a critical infrastructure to the United States. Failures in the power systems supporting major telecommunications service nodes are a main contributor to major telecommunications outages. A logical approach to improve the robustness of telecommunication facilities would be to increase the depth and breadth of technologies available to restore power inmore » the face of power outages. Distributed energy resources such as fuel cells and gas turbines could provide one more onsite electric power source to provide backup power, if batteries and diesel generators fail. The analysis is based on a hierarchical Bayesian approach and focuses on the failure probability associated with each of three possible facility configurations, along with assessment of the uncertainty or confidence level in the probability of failure. A risk-based characterization of final best configuration is presented.« less

  3. Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation. Volume 2: Integrated loss of vehicle model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragola, Joseph R.; Maggio, Gaspare; Frank, Michael V.; Gerez, Luis; Mcfadden, Richard H.; Collins, Erin P.; Ballesio, Jorge; Appignani, Peter L.; Karns, James J.

    1995-01-01

    The application of the probabilistic risk assessment methodology to a Space Shuttle environment, particularly to the potential of losing the Shuttle during nominal operation is addressed. The different related concerns are identified and combined to determine overall program risks. A fault tree model is used to allocate system probabilities to the subsystem level. The loss of the vehicle due to failure to contain energetic gas and debris, to maintain proper propulsion and configuration is analyzed, along with the loss due to Orbiter, external tank failure, and landing failure or error.

  4. On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

    2015-01-01

    Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

  5. Reliability, Risk and Cost Trade-Offs for Composite Designs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shiao, Michael C.; Singhal, Surendra N.; Chamis, Christos C.

    1996-01-01

    Risk and cost trade-offs have been simulated using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally-occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry and loading conditions. The probability density function of first buckling load for a set of uncertain variables is computed. The probabilistic sensitivity factors of uncertain variables to the first buckling load is calculated. The reliability-based cost for a composite fuselage panel is defined and minimized with respect to requisite design parameters. The optimization is achieved by solving a system of nonlinear algebraic equations whose coefficients are functions of probabilistic sensitivity factors. With optimum design parameters such as the mean and coefficient of variation (representing range of scatter) of uncertain variables, the most efficient and economical manufacturing procedure can be selected. In this paper, optimum values of the requisite design parameters for a predetermined cost due to failure occurrence are computationally determined. The results for the fuselage panel analysis show that the higher the cost due to failure occurrence, the smaller the optimum coefficient of variation of fiber modulus (design parameter) in longitudinal direction.

  6. A Study on the Security Levels of Spread-Spectrum Embedding Schemes in the WOA Framework.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yuan-Gen; Zhu, Guopu; Kwong, Sam; Shi, Yun-Qing

    2017-08-23

    Security analysis is a very important issue for digital watermarking. Several years ago, according to Kerckhoffs' principle, the famous four security levels, namely insecurity, key security, subspace security, and stego-security, were defined for spread-spectrum (SS) embedding schemes in the framework of watermarked-only attack. However, up to now there has been little application of the definition of these security levels to the theoretical analysis of the security of SS embedding schemes, due to the difficulty of the theoretical analysis. In this paper, based on the security definition, we present a theoretical analysis to evaluate the security levels of five typical SS embedding schemes, which are the classical SS, the improved SS (ISS), the circular extension of ISS, the nonrobust and robust natural watermarking, respectively. The theoretical analysis of these typical SS schemes are successfully performed by taking advantage of the convolution of probability distributions to derive the probabilistic models of watermarked signals. Moreover, simulations are conducted to illustrate and validate our theoretical analysis. We believe that the theoretical and practical analysis presented in this paper can bridge the gap between the definition of the four security levels and its application to the theoretical analysis of SS embedding schemes.

  7. Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume III: Part A

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) Volume 3A provides policies and guiding principles on the application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods to human health and ecological risk assessment in the EPA Superfund Program.

  8. [Respiratory symptoms caused by the use of electrocautery in physicians being trained in surgery in a Mexican hospital].

    PubMed

    Navarro-Meza, María Cristina; González-Baltazar, Raquel; Aldrete-Rodríguez, María Guadalupe; Carmona-Navarro, David Enrique; López-Cardona, María Guadalupe

    2013-03-01

    In order to determine the frequency of respiratory symptoms among residents from surgical specialties dures exposed to the electrocautery smoke, a cross-sectional study was conducted in February 2012. 50 third-year residents from different surgical specialties coming from a third-level hospital belonging to the Institute of Security and Social Services of the State Workers in Jalisco, Mexico, were included. The subject selection was non-probabilistic. A questionnaire on respiratory symptoms developed in Cuba was used for data collection. The most common symptoms were sensation of a lump in the throat (58%), and a sore throat (22%). The specialty with the highest rate of exposure was neurosurgery (24.1 min/surgical procedure). All, the physicians from this specialty had respiratory symptoms. We conclude that the cauterization smoke may be considered a risk for developing respiratory symptoms among physicians with surgical specialties.

  9. Probabilistic Seismic Risk Model for Western Balkans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stejskal, Vladimir; Lorenzo, Francisco; Pousse, Guillaume; Radovanovic, Slavica; Pekevski, Lazo; Dojcinovski, Dragi; Lokin, Petar; Petronijevic, Mira; Sipka, Vesna

    2010-05-01

    A probabilistic seismic risk model for insurance and reinsurance purposes is presented for an area of Western Balkans, covering former Yugoslavia and Albania. This territory experienced many severe earthquakes during past centuries producing significant damage to many population centres in the region. The highest hazard is related to external Dinarides, namely to the collision zone of the Adriatic plate. The model is based on a unified catalogue for the region and a seismic source model consisting of more than 30 zones covering all the three main structural units - Southern Alps, Dinarides and the south-western margin of the Pannonian Basin. A probabilistic methodology using Monte Carlo simulation was applied to generate the hazard component of the model. Unique set of damage functions based on both loss experience and engineering assessments is used to convert the modelled ground motion severity into the monetary loss.

  10. Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

    2016-01-01

    Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

  11. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-12-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also start putting attention to ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualization, but also requires understanding how decision makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real-time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision makers. Answers were collected and analyzed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if indeed we make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  12. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; van Andel, S. J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-06-01

    The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  13. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

    2010-01-01

    NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

  14. Lessons from the conviction of the L'Aquila seven: The standard probabilistic earthquake hazard and risk assessment is ineffective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wyss, Max

    2013-04-01

    An earthquake of M6.3 killed 309 people in L'Aquila, Italy, on 6 April 2011. Subsequently, a judge in L'Aquila convicted seven who had participated in an emergency meeting on March 30, assessing the probability of a major event to follow the ongoing earthquake swarm. The sentence was six years in prison, a combine fine of 2 million Euros, loss of job, loss of retirement rent, and lawyer's costs. The judge followed the prosecution's accusation that the review by the Commission of Great Risks had conveyed a false sense of security to the population, which consequently did not take their usual precautionary measures before the deadly earthquake. He did not consider the facts that (1) one of the convicted was not a member of the commission and had merrily obeyed orders to bring the latest seismological facts to the discussion, (2) another was an engineer who was not required to have any expertise regarding the probability of earthquakes, (3) and two others were seismologists not invited to speak to the public at a TV interview and a press conference. This exaggerated judgment was the consequence of an uproar in the population, who felt misinformed and even mislead. Faced with a population worried by an earthquake swarm, the head of the Italian Civil Defense is on record ordering that the population be calmed, and the vice head executed this order in a TV interview one hour before the meeting of the Commission by stating "the scientific community continues to tell me that the situation is favorable and that there is a discharge of energy." The first lesson to be learned is that communications to the public about earthquake hazard and risk must not be left in the hands of someone who has gross misunderstandings about seismology. They must be carefully prepared by experts. The more significant lesson is that the approach to calm the population and the standard probabilistic hazard and risk assessment, as practiced by GSHAP, are misleading. The later has been criticized as being incorrect for scientific reasons and here I argue that it is also ineffective for psychological reasons. Instead of calming the people or by underestimating the hazard in strongly active areas by the GSHAP approach, they should be told quantitatively the consequences of the reasonably worst case and be motivated to prepare for it, whether or not it may hit the present or the next generation. In a worst case scenario for L'Aquila, the number of expected fatalities and injured should have been calculated for an event in the range of M6.5 to M7, as I did for a civil defense exercise in Umbria, Italy. With the prospect that approximately 500 people may die in an earthquake in the immediate or distant future, some residents might have built themselves an earthquake closet (similar to a simple tornado shelter) in a corner of their apartment, into which they might have dashed to safety at the onset of the P-wave before the destructive S-wave arrived. I conclude that in earthquake prone areas quantitative loss estimates due to a reasonable worst case earthquake should replace probabilistic hazard and risk estimates. This is a service, which experts owe the community. Insurance companies and academics may still find use for probabilistic estimates of losses, especially in areas of low seismic hazard, where the worst case scenario approach is less appropriate.

  15. Predicting Rib Fracture Risk With Whole-Body Finite Element Models: Development and Preliminary Evaluation of a Probabilistic Analytical Framework

    PubMed Central

    Forman, Jason L.; Kent, Richard W.; Mroz, Krystoffer; Pipkorn, Bengt; Bostrom, Ola; Segui-Gomez, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This study sought to develop a strain-based probabilistic method to predict rib fracture risk with whole-body finite element (FE) models, and to describe a method to combine the results with collision exposure information to predict injury risk and potential intervention effectiveness in the field. An age-adjusted ultimate strain distribution was used to estimate local rib fracture probabilities within an FE model. These local probabilities were combined to predict injury risk and severity within the whole ribcage. The ultimate strain distribution was developed from a literature dataset of 133 tests. Frontal collision simulations were performed with the THUMS (Total HUman Model for Safety) model with four levels of delta-V and two restraints: a standard 3-point belt and a progressive 3.5–7 kN force-limited, pretensioned (FL+PT) belt. The results of three simulations (29 km/h standard, 48 km/h standard, and 48 km/h FL+PT) were compared to matched cadaver sled tests. The numbers of fractures predicted for the comparison cases were consistent with those observed experimentally. Combining these results with field exposure informantion (ΔV, NASS-CDS 1992–2002) suggests a 8.9% probability of incurring AIS3+ rib fractures for a 60 year-old restrained by a standard belt in a tow-away frontal collision with this restraint, vehicle, and occupant configuration, compared to 4.6% for the FL+PT belt. This is the first study to describe a probabilistic framework to predict rib fracture risk based on strains observed in human-body FE models. Using this analytical framework, future efforts may incorporate additional subject or collision factors for multi-variable probabilistic injury prediction. PMID:23169122

  16. A probabilistic QMRA of Salmonella in direct agricultural reuse of treated municipal wastewater.

    PubMed

    Amha, Yamrot M; Kumaraswamy, Rajkumari; Ahmad, Farrukh

    2015-01-01

    Developing reliable quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) procedures aids in setting recommendations on reuse applications of treated wastewater. In this study, a probabilistic QMRA to determine the risk of Salmonella infections resulting from the consumption of edible crops irrigated with treated wastewater was conducted. Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) was used to enumerate Salmonella spp. in post-disinfected samples, where they showed concentrations ranging from 90 to 1,600 cells/100 mL. The results were used to construct probabilistic exposure models for the raw consumption of three vegetables (lettuce, cabbage, and cucumber) irrigated with treated wastewater, and to estimate the disease burden using Monte Carlo analysis. The results showed elevated median disease burden, when compared with acceptable disease burden set by the World Health Organization, which is 10⁻⁶ disability-adjusted life years per person per year. Of the three vegetables considered, lettuce showed the highest risk of infection in all scenarios considered, while cucumber showed the lowest risk. The results of the Salmonella concentration obtained with qPCR were compared with the results of Escherichia coli concentration for samples taken on the same sampling dates.

  17. Comparative Probabilistic Assessment of Occupational Pesticide Exposures Based on Regulatory Assessments

    PubMed Central

    Pouzou, Jane G.; Cullen, Alison C.; Yost, Michael G.; Kissel, John C.; Fenske, Richard A.

    2018-01-01

    Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database along with data from the Exposure Factors Handbook and other sources to calculate exposure rates for three different neurotoxic compounds (azinphos methyl, acetamiprid, emamectin benzoate) across four pesticide-handling scenarios. Probabilistic estimates of doses were compared with the no observable effect levels used in the EPA occupational risk assessments. Some percentage of workers were predicted to exceed the level of concern for all three compounds: 54% for azinphos methyl, 5% for acetamiprid, and 20% for emamectin benzoate. This finding has implications for pesticide risk assessment and offers an alternative procedure that may be more protective of those at the extremes of exposure than the current approach. PMID:29105804

  18. Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

    2018-03-01

    This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

  19. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof

    2009-04-01

    Drinking water systems are vulnerable and subject to a wide range of risks. To avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options, risk analyses need to include the entire drinking water system, from source to tap. Such an integrated approach demands tools that are able to model interactions between different events. Fault tree analysis is a risk estimation tool with the ability to model interactions between events. Using fault tree analysis on an integrated level, a probabilistic risk analysis of a large drinking water system in Sweden was carried out. The primary aims of the study were: (1) to develop a method for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of entire drinking water systems; and (2) to evaluate the applicability of Customer Minutes Lost (CML) as a measure of risk. The analysis included situations where no water is delivered to the consumer (quantity failure) and situations where water is delivered but does not comply with water quality standards (quality failure). Hard data as well as expert judgements were used to estimate probabilities of events and uncertainties in the estimates. The calculations were performed using Monte Carlo simulations. CML is shown to be a useful measure of risks associated with drinking water systems. The method presented provides information on risk levels, probabilities of failure, failure rates and downtimes of the system. This information is available for the entire system as well as its different sub-systems. Furthermore, the method enables comparison of the results with performance targets and acceptable levels of risk. The method thus facilitates integrated risk analysis and consequently helps decision-makers to minimise sub-optimisation of risk-reduction options.

  20. Toward Practical Verification of Outsourced Computations Using Probabilistically Checkable Proofs (PCPs)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-07-12

    Germany, 1999. [8] L. Babai, L. Fortnow, L. A. Levin, and M. Szegedy. Checking Computations in Polylogarithmic Time. In STOC, 1991. [9] A. Ben- David ...their work. J. ACM, 42(1):269–291, 1995. [12] D. Chaum , C. Crépeau, and I. Damgard. Multiparty unconditionally secure protocols. In STOC, 1988. [13

  1. Probabilistic Solution of Inverse Problems.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-09-01

    AODRESSIl differentI from Conat.oildun 0111C*) It. SECURITY CLASS (ofll ~e vport) Office of Naval Research UCASFE Information Systems ...report describes research done within the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems and the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts...analysis of systems endowed with perceptual abilities is the construction of internal representations of the physical structures in the external world

  2. Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

    PubMed

    Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

    2016-12-20

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

  3. Toward a Probabilistic Phenological Model for Wheat Growing Degree Days (GDD)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahmani, E.; Hense, A.

    2017-12-01

    Are there deterministic relations between phenological and climate parameters? The answer is surely `No'. This answer motivated us to solve the problem through probabilistic theories. Thus, we developed a probabilistic phenological model which has the advantage of giving additional information in terms of uncertainty. To that aim, we turned to a statistical analysis named survival analysis. Survival analysis deals with death in biological organisms and failure in mechanical systems. In survival analysis literature, death or failure is considered as an event. By event, in this research we mean ripening date of wheat. We will assume only one event in this special case. By time, we mean the growing duration from sowing to ripening as lifetime for wheat which is a function of GDD. To be more precise we will try to perform the probabilistic forecast for wheat ripening. The probability value will change between 0 and 1. Here, the survivor function gives the probability that the not ripened wheat survives longer than a specific time or will survive to the end of its lifetime as a ripened crop. The survival function at each station is determined by fitting a normal distribution to the GDD as the function of growth duration. Verification of the models obtained is done using CRPS skill score (CRPSS). The positive values of CRPSS indicate the large superiority of the probabilistic phonologic survival model to the deterministic models. These results demonstrate that considering uncertainties in modeling are beneficial, meaningful and necessary. We believe that probabilistic phenological models have the potential to help reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production systems to climate change thereby increasing food security.

  4. Probabilistic migration modelling focused on functional barrier efficiency and low migration concepts in support of risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Brandsch, Rainer

    2017-10-01

    Migration modelling provides reliable migration estimates from food-contact materials (FCM) to food or food simulants based on mass-transfer parameters like diffusion and partition coefficients related to individual materials. In most cases, mass-transfer parameters are not readily available from the literature and for this reason are estimated with a given uncertainty. Historically, uncertainty was accounted for by introducing upper limit concepts first, turning out to be of limited applicability due to highly overestimated migration results. Probabilistic migration modelling gives the possibility to consider uncertainty of the mass-transfer parameters as well as other model inputs. With respect to a functional barrier, the most important parameters among others are the diffusion properties of the functional barrier and its thickness. A software tool that accepts distribution as inputs and is capable of applying Monte Carlo methods, i.e., random sampling from the input distributions of the relevant parameters (i.e., diffusion coefficient and layer thickness), predicts migration results with related uncertainty and confidence intervals. The capabilities of probabilistic migration modelling are presented in the view of three case studies (1) sensitivity analysis, (2) functional barrier efficiency and (3) validation by experimental testing. Based on the predicted migration by probabilistic migration modelling and related exposure estimates, safety evaluation of new materials in the context of existing or new packaging concepts is possible. Identifying associated migration risk and potential safety concerns in the early stage of packaging development is possible. Furthermore, dedicated material selection exhibiting required functional barrier efficiency under application conditions becomes feasible. Validation of the migration risk assessment by probabilistic migration modelling through a minimum of dedicated experimental testing is strongly recommended.

  5. Water supply infrastructure planning under multiple uncertainties: A differentiated approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fletcher, S.; Strzepek, K.

    2017-12-01

    Many water planners face increased pressure on water supply systems from increasing demands from population and economic growth in combination with uncertain water supply. Supply uncertainty arises from short-term climate variability and long-term climate change as well as uncertainty in groundwater availability. Social and economic uncertainties - such as sectoral competition for water, food and energy security, urbanization, and environmental protection - compound physical uncertainty. Further, the varying risk aversion of stakeholders and water managers makes it difficult to assess the necessity of expensive infrastructure investments to reduce risk. We categorize these uncertainties on two dimensions: whether they can be updated over time by collecting additional information, and whether the uncertainties can be described probabilistically or are "deep" uncertainties whose likelihood is unknown. Based on this, we apply a decision framework that combines simulation for probabilistic uncertainty, scenario analysis for deep uncertainty, and multi-stage decision analysis for uncertainties that are reduced over time with additional information. In light of these uncertainties and the investment costs of large infrastructure, we propose the assessment of staged, modular infrastructure and information updating as a hedge against risk. We apply this framework to cases in Melbourne, Australia and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Melbourne is a surface water system facing uncertain population growth and variable rainfall and runoff. A severe drought from 1997 to 2009 prompted investment in a 150 MCM/y reverse osmosis desalination plan with a capital cost of 3.5 billion. Our analysis shows that flexible design in which a smaller portion of capacity is developed initially with the option to add modular capacity in the future can mitigate uncertainty and reduce the expected lifetime costs by up to 1 billion. In Riyadh, urban water use relies on fossil groundwater aquifers and desalination. Intense withdrawals for urban and agricultural use will lead to lowering of the water table in the aquifer at rapid but uncertain rates due to poor groundwater characterization. We assess the potential for additional groundwater data collection and a flexible infrastructure approach similar to that in Melbourne to mitigate risk.

  6. Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

    2017-08-01

    Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

  7. A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

    PubMed

    Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

    2015-12-01

    Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that incorporating risk scoring knowledge as prior information can improve the performance in risk stratification. Experimental results reveal that our models achieve competitive performance in risk stratification in comparison with existing supervised approaches. In addition, the unsupervised nature of our models makes them highly portable to the risk stratification tasks of various diseases. Moreover, patient sub-profiles and sub-profile-specific risk tiers generated by our models are coherent and informative, and provide significant potential to be explored for the further tasks, such as patient cohort analysis. We hypothesize that the proposed framework can readily meet the demand for risk stratification from a large volume of EHRs in an open-ended fashion. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  9. The use of belief-based probabilistic methods in volcanology: Scientists' views and implications for risk assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donovan, Amy; Oppenheimer, Clive; Bravo, Michael

    2012-12-01

    This paper constitutes a philosophical and social scientific study of expert elicitation in the assessment and management of volcanic risk on Montserrat during the 1995-present volcanic activity. It outlines the broader context of subjective probabilistic methods and then uses a mixed-method approach to analyse the use of these methods in volcanic crises. Data from a global survey of volcanologists regarding the use of statistical methods in hazard assessment are presented. Detailed qualitative data from Montserrat are then discussed, particularly concerning the expert elicitation procedure that was pioneered during the eruptions. These data are analysed and conclusions about the use of these methods in volcanology are drawn. The paper finds that while many volcanologists are open to the use of these methods, there are still some concerns, which are similar to the concerns encountered in the literature on probabilistic and determinist approaches to seismic hazard analysis.

  10. Grid Inertial Response-Based Probabilistic Determination of Energy Storage System Capacity Under High Solar Penetration

    DOE PAGES

    Yue, Meng; Wang, Xiaoyu

    2015-07-01

    It is well-known that responsive battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are an effective means to improve the grid inertial response to various disturbances including the variability of the renewable generation. One of the major issues associated with its implementation is the difficulty in determining the required BESS capacity mainly due to the large amount of inherent uncertainties that cannot be accounted for deterministically. In this study, a probabilistic approach is proposed to properly size the BESS from the perspective of the system inertial response, as an application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The proposed approach enables a risk-informed decision-making processmore » regarding (1) the acceptable level of solar penetration in a given system and (2) the desired BESS capacity (and minimum cost) to achieve an acceptable grid inertial response with a certain confidence level.« less

  11. Beyond a series of security nets: Applying STAMP & STPA to port security

    DOE PAGES

    Williams, Adam D.

    2015-11-17

    Port security is an increasing concern considering the significant role of ports in global commerce and today’s increasingly complex threat environment. Current approaches to port security mirror traditional models of accident causality -- ‘a series of security nets’ based on component reliability and probabilistic assumptions. Traditional port security frameworks result in isolated and inconsistent improvement strategies. Recent work in engineered safety combines the ideas of hierarchy, emergence, control and communication into a new paradigm for understanding port security as an emergent complex system property. The ‘System-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP)’ is a new model of causality based on systemsmore » and control theory. The associated analysis process -- System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) -- identifies specific technical or procedural security requirements designed to work in coordination with (and be traceable to) overall port objectives. This process yields port security design specifications that can mitigate (if not eliminate) port security vulnerabilities related to an emphasis on component reliability, lack of coordination between port security stakeholders or economic pressures endemic in the maritime industry. As a result, this article aims to demonstrate how STAMP’s broader view of causality and complexity can better address the dynamic and interactive behaviors of social, organizational and technical components of port security.« less

  12. Beyond a series of security nets: Applying STAMP & STPA to port security

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Williams, Adam D.

    Port security is an increasing concern considering the significant role of ports in global commerce and today’s increasingly complex threat environment. Current approaches to port security mirror traditional models of accident causality -- ‘a series of security nets’ based on component reliability and probabilistic assumptions. Traditional port security frameworks result in isolated and inconsistent improvement strategies. Recent work in engineered safety combines the ideas of hierarchy, emergence, control and communication into a new paradigm for understanding port security as an emergent complex system property. The ‘System-Theoretic Accident Model and Process (STAMP)’ is a new model of causality based on systemsmore » and control theory. The associated analysis process -- System Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) -- identifies specific technical or procedural security requirements designed to work in coordination with (and be traceable to) overall port objectives. This process yields port security design specifications that can mitigate (if not eliminate) port security vulnerabilities related to an emphasis on component reliability, lack of coordination between port security stakeholders or economic pressures endemic in the maritime industry. As a result, this article aims to demonstrate how STAMP’s broader view of causality and complexity can better address the dynamic and interactive behaviors of social, organizational and technical components of port security.« less

  13. A performance-based approach to landslide risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Romeo, R. W.

    2009-04-01

    An approach for the risk assessment based on a probabilistic analysis of the performance of structures threatened by landslides is shown and discussed. The risk is a possible loss due to the occurrence of a potentially damaging event. Analytically the risk is the probability convolution of hazard, which defines the frequency of occurrence of the event (i.e., the demand), and fragility that defines the capacity of the system to withstand the event given its characteristics (i.e., severity) and those of the exposed goods (vulnerability), that is: Risk=p(D>=d|S,V) The inequality sets a damage (or loss) threshold beyond which the system's performance is no longer met. Therefore a consistent approach to risk assessment should: 1) adopt a probabilistic model which takes into account all the uncertainties of the involved variables (capacity and demand), 2) follow a performance approach based on given loss or damage thresholds. The proposed method belongs to the category of the semi-empirical ones: the theoretical component is given by the probabilistic capacity-demand model; the empirical component is given by the observed statistical behaviour of structures damaged by landslides. Two landslide properties alone are required: the area-extent and the type (or kinematism). All other properties required to determine the severity of landslides (such as depth, speed and frequency) are derived via probabilistic methods. The severity (or intensity) of landslides, in terms of kinetic energy, is the demand of resistance; the resistance capacity is given by the cumulative distribution functions of the limit state performance (fragility functions) assessed via damage surveys and cards compilation. The investigated limit states are aesthetic (of nominal concern alone), functional (interruption of service) and structural (economic and social losses). The damage probability is the probabilistic convolution of hazard (the probability mass function of the frequency of occurrence of given severities) and vulnerability (the probability of a limit state performance be reached, given a certain severity). Then, for each landslide all the exposed goods (structures and infrastructures) within the landslide area and within a buffer (representative of the maximum extension of a landslide given a reactivation), are counted. The risk is the product of the damage probability and the ratio of the exposed goods of each landslide to the whole assets exposed to the same type of landslides. Since the risk is computed numerically and by the same procedure applied to all landslides, it is free from any subjective assessment such as those implied in the qualitative methods.

  14. Architecture for Integrated Medical Model Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jaworske, D. A.; Myers, J. G.; Goodenow, D.; Young, M.; Arellano, J. D.

    2016-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a modeling tool used to predict potential outcomes of a complex system based on a statistical understanding of many initiating events. Utilizing a Monte Carlo method, thousands of instances of the model are considered and outcomes are collected. PRA is considered static, utilizing probabilities alone to calculate outcomes. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (dPRA) is an advanced concept where modeling predicts the outcomes of a complex system based not only on the probabilities of many initiating events, but also on a progression of dependencies brought about by progressing down a time line. Events are placed in a single time line, adding each event to a queue, as managed by a planner. Progression down the time line is guided by rules, as managed by a scheduler. The recently developed Integrated Medical Model (IMM) summarizes astronaut health as governed by the probabilities of medical events and mitigation strategies. Managing the software architecture process provides a systematic means of creating, documenting, and communicating a software design early in the development process. The software architecture process begins with establishing requirements and the design is then derived from the requirements.

  15. Affective and cognitive factors influencing sensitivity to probabilistic information.

    PubMed

    Tyszka, Tadeusz; Sawicki, Przemyslaw

    2011-11-01

    In study 1 different groups of female students were randomly assigned to one of four probabilistic information formats. Five different levels of probability of a genetic disease in an unborn child were presented to participants (within-subject factor). After the presentation of the probability level, participants were requested to indicate the acceptable level of pain they would tolerate to avoid the disease (in their unborn child), their subjective evaluation of the disease risk, and their subjective evaluation of being worried by this risk. The results of study 1 confirmed the hypothesis that an experience-based probability format decreases the subjective sense of worry about the disease, thus, presumably, weakening the tendency to overrate the probability of rare events. Study 2 showed that for the emotionally laden stimuli, the experience-based probability format resulted in higher sensitivity to probability variations than other formats of probabilistic information. These advantages of the experience-based probability format are interpreted in terms of two systems of information processing: the rational deliberative versus the affective experiential and the principle of stimulus-response compatibility. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Probabilistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Astronauts in Space Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2009-01-01

    Accurate predictions of the health risks to astronauts from space radiation exposure are necessary for enabling future lunar and Mars missions. Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons, (less than 100 MeV); and galactic cosmic rays (GCR), which include protons and heavy ions of higher energies. While the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the solar activity cycle, SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature. A solar modulation model has been developed for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment, which is represented by the deceleration potential, phi. The risk of radiation exposure from SPEs during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded vehicles is a major concern for radiation protection, including determining the shielding and operational requirements for astronauts and hardware. To support the probabilistic risk assessment for EVAs, which would be up to 15% of crew time on lunar missions, we estimated the probability of SPE occurrence as a function of time within a solar cycle using a nonhomogeneous Poisson model to fit the historical database of measurements of protons with energy > 30 MeV, (phi)30. The resultant organ doses and dose equivalents, as well as effective whole body doses for acute and cancer risk estimations are analyzed for a conceptual habitat module and a lunar rover during defined space mission periods. This probabilistic approach to radiation risk assessment from SPE and GCR is in support of mission design and operational planning to manage radiation risks for space exploration.

  17. Use of risk quotient and probabilistic approaches to assess risks of pesticides to birds

    EPA Science Inventory

    When conducting ecological risk assessments for pesticides, the United States Environmental Protection Agency typically relies upon the risk quotient (RQ). This approach is intended to be conservative in nature, making assumptions related to exposure and effects that are intended...

  18. How Can You Support RIDM/CRM/RM Through the Use of PRA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DoVemto. Tpmu

    2011-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is one of key Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) tools. It is a scenario-based methodology aimed at identifying and assessing Safety and Technical Performance risks in complex technological systems.

  19. Structural reliability methods: Code development status

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

    1991-05-01

    The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

  20. Structural reliability methods: Code development status

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Millwater, Harry R.; Thacker, Ben H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Cruse, T. A.

    1991-01-01

    The Probabilistic Structures Analysis Method (PSAM) program integrates state of the art probabilistic algorithms with structural analysis methods in order to quantify the behavior of Space Shuttle Main Engine structures subject to uncertain loadings, boundary conditions, material parameters, and geometric conditions. An advanced, efficient probabilistic structural analysis software program, NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) was developed as a deliverable. NESSUS contains a number of integrated software components to perform probabilistic analysis of complex structures. A nonlinear finite element module NESSUS/FEM is used to model the structure and obtain structural sensitivities. Some of the capabilities of NESSUS/FEM are shown. A Fast Probability Integration module NESSUS/FPI estimates the probability given the structural sensitivities. A driver module, PFEM, couples the FEM and FPI. NESSUS, version 5.0, addresses component reliability, resistance, and risk.

  1. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

    2012-10-01

    Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

  2. Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.

  3. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bozoki, G.E.; Fitzpatrick, R.G.; Bohn, M.P.

    This report details the review of the Diablo Canyon Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DCPRA). The study was performed under contract from the Probabilistic Risk Analysis Branch, Office of Nuclear Reactor Research, USNRC by Brookhaven National Laboratory. The DCPRA is a full scope Level I effort and although the review touched on all aspects of the PRA, the internal events and seismic events received the vast majority of the review effort. The report includes a number of independent systems analyses sensitivity studies, importance analyses as well as conclusions on the adequacy of the DCPRA for use in the Diablo Canyon Long Termmore » Seismic Program.« less

  4. NSTS Orbiter auxiliary power unit turbine wheel cracking risk assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cruse, T. A.; Mcclung, R. C.; Torng, T. Y.

    1992-01-01

    The present investigation of turbine-wheel cracking problems in the hydrazine-fueled APU turbine wheel of the Space Shuttle Orbiter's Main Engines has indicated the efficacy of systematic probabilistic risk assessment in flight certification and safety resolution. Nevertheless, real crack-initiation and propagation problems do not lend themselves to purely analytical studies. The high-cycle fatigue problem is noted to generally be unsuited to probabilistic modeling, due to its extremely high degree of intrinsic scatter. In the case treated, the cracks appear to trend toward crack arrest in a low cycle fatigue mode, due to a detuning of the resonance model.

  5. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Coleman, Justin; Slaughter, Andrew; Veeraraghavan, Swetha

    Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

  6. Security-Oriented and Load-Balancing Wireless Data Routing Game in the Integration of Advanced Metering Infrastructure Network in Smart Grid

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    He, Fulin; Cao, Yang; Zhang, Jun Jason

    Ensuring flexible and reliable data routing is indispensable for the integration of Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) networks, we propose a secure-oriented and load-balancing wireless data routing scheme. A novel utility function is designed based on security routing scheme. Then, we model the interactive security-oriented routing strategy among meter data concentrators or smart grid meters as a mixed-strategy network formation game. Finally, such problem results in a stable probabilistic routing scheme with proposed distributed learning algorithm. One contributions is that we studied that different types of applications affect the routing selection strategy and the strategy tendency. Another contributions is that themore » chosen strategy of our mixed routing can adaptively to converge to a new mixed strategy Nash equilibrium (MSNE) during the learning process in the smart grid.« less

  7. III: Use of biomarkers as Risk Indicators in Environmental Risk Assessment of oil based discharges offshore.

    PubMed

    Sanni, Steinar; Lyng, Emily; Pampanin, Daniela M

    2017-06-01

    Offshore oil and gas activities are required not to cause adverse environmental effects, and risk based management has been established to meet environmental standards. In some risk assessment schemes, Risk Indicators (RIs) are parameters to monitor the development of risk affecting factors. RIs have not yet been established in the Environmental Risk Assessment procedures for management of oil based discharges offshore. This paper evaluates the usefulness of biomarkers as RIs, based on their properties, existing laboratory biomarker data and assessment methods. Data shows several correlations between oil concentrations and biomarker responses, and assessment principles exist that qualify biomarkers for integration into risk procedures. Different ways that these existing biomarkers and methods can be applied as RIs in a probabilistic risk assessment system when linked with whole organism responses are discussed. This can be a useful approach to integrate biomarkers into probabilistic risk assessment related to oil based discharges, representing a potential supplement to information that biomarkers already provide about environmental impact and risk related to these kind of discharges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Levels, sources and probabilistic health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the agricultural soils from sites neighboring suburban industries in Shanghai.

    PubMed

    Tong, Ruipeng; Yang, Xiaoyi; Su, Hanrui; Pan, Yue; Zhang, Qiuzhuo; Wang, Juan; Long, Mingce

    2018-03-01

    The levels, sources and quantitative probabilistic health risks for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in agricultural soils in the vicinity of power, steel and petrochemical plants in the suburbs of Shanghai are discussed. The total concentration of 16 PAHs in the soils ranges from 223 to 8214ng g -1 . The sources of PAHs were analyzed by both isomeric ratios and a principal component analysis-multiple linear regression method. The results indicate that PAHs mainly originated from the incomplete combustion of coal and oil. The probabilistic risk assessments for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks posed by PAHs in soils with adult farmers as concerned receptors were quantitatively calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimated total carcinogenic risks (TCR) for the agricultural soils has a 45% possibility of exceeding the acceptable threshold value (10 -6 ), indicating potential adverse health effects. However, all non-carcinogenic risks are below the threshold value. Oral intake is the dominant exposure pathway, accounting for 77.7% of TCR, while inhalation intake is negligible. The three PAHs with the highest contribution for TCR are BaP (64.35%), DBA (17.56%) and InP (9.06%). Sensitivity analyses indicate that exposure frequency has the greatest impact on the total risk uncertainty, followed by the exposure dose through oral intake and exposure duration. These results indicate that it is essential to manage the health risks of PAH-contaminated agricultural soils in the vicinity of typical industries in megacities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Game Theoretic Approaches to Protect Cyberspace

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-04-20

    security problems. 3.1 Definitions Game A description of the strategic interaction between opposing, or co-operating, interests where the con ...that involves probabilistic transitions through several states of the system. The game pro - gresses as a sequence of states. The game begins with a...eventually leads to a discretized model. The reaction functions uniquely minimize the strictly con - vex cost functions. After discretization, this

  10. Data-Based Detection of Potential Terrorist Attacks: Statistical and Graphical Methods

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    Naren; Vasquez-Robinet, Cecilia; Watkinson, Jonathan: "A General Probabilistic Model of the PCR Process," Applied Mathematics and Computation 182(1...September 2006. Seminar, Measuring the effect of Length biased sampling, Mathematical Sciences Section, National Security Agency, 19 September 2006...Committee on National Statistics, 9 February 2007. Invited seminar, Statistical Tests for Bullet Lead Comparisons, Department of Mathematics , Butler

  11. SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

    PubMed

    Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

    2001-10-12

    As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

  12. Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

    2002-01-01

    In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

  13. Risk Assessment: Evidence Base

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson-Throop, Kathy A.

    2007-01-01

    Human systems PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment: a) Provides quantitative measures of probability, consequence, and uncertainty; and b) Communicates risk and informs decision-making. Human health risks rated highest in ISS PRA are based on 1997 assessment of clinical events in analog operational settings. Much work remains to analyze remaining human health risks identified in Bioastronautics Roadmap.

  14. Asteroid Impact Risk: Ground Hazard versus Impactor Size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathias, Donovan; Wheeler, Lorien; Dotson, Jessie; Aftosmis, Michael; Tarano, Ana

    2017-01-01

    We utilized a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model to stochastically assess the impact risk due to an ensemble population of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). Concretely, we present the variation of risk with impactor size. Results suggest that large impactors dominate the average risk, even when only considering the subset of undiscovered NEOs.

  15. Weighing costs and losses: A decision making game using probabilistic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Micha; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Wetterhall, Frederik; Cranston, Michael; van Andel, Schalk-Jan; Pappenberger, Florian; Verkade, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly recognised as an effective and reliable tool to communicate uncertainties. The economic value of probabilistic forecasts has been demonstrated by several authors, showing the benefit to using probabilistic forecasts over deterministic forecasts in several sectors, including flood and drought warning, hydropower, and agriculture. Probabilistic forecasting is also central to the emerging concept of risk-based decision making, and underlies emerging paradigms such as impact-based forecasting. Although the economic value of probabilistic forecasts is easily demonstrated in academic works, its evaluation in practice is more complex. The practical use of probabilistic forecasts requires decision makers to weigh the cost of an appropriate response to a probabilistic warning against the projected loss that would occur if the event forecast becomes reality. In this paper, we present the results of a simple game that aims to explore how decision makers are influenced by the costs required for taking a response and the potential losses they face in case the forecast flood event occurs. Participants play the role of one of three possible different shop owners. Each type of shop has losses of quite different magnitude, should a flood event occur. The shop owners are presented with several forecasts, each with a probability of a flood event occurring, which would inundate their shop and lead to those losses. In response, they have to decide if they want to do nothing, raise temporary defences, or relocate their inventory. Each action comes at a cost; and the different shop owners therefore have quite different cost/loss ratios. The game was played on four occasions. Players were attendees of the ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting session of the 2016 EGU Assembly, professionals participating at two other conferences related to hydrometeorology, and a group of students. All audiences were familiar with the principles of forecasting and water-related risks, and one of the audiences comprised a group of experts in probabilistic forecasting. Results show that the different shop owners do take the costs of taking action and the potential losses into account in their decisions. Shop owners with a low cost/loss ratio were found to be more inclined to take actions based on the forecasts, though the absolute value of the losses also increased the willingness to take action. Little differentiation was found between the different groups of players.

  16. Probabilistic approaches to accounting for data variability in the practical application of bioavailability in predicting aquatic risks from metals.

    PubMed

    Ciffroy, Philippe; Charlatchka, Rayna; Ferreira, Daniel; Marang, Laura

    2013-07-01

    The biotic ligand model (BLM) theoretically enables the derivation of environmental quality standards that are based on true bioavailable fractions of metals. Several physicochemical variables (especially pH, major cations, dissolved organic carbon, and dissolved metal concentrations) must, however, be assigned to run the BLM, but they are highly variable in time and space in natural systems. This article describes probabilistic approaches for integrating such variability during the derivation of risk indexes. To describe each variable using a probability density function (PDF), several methods were combined to 1) treat censored data (i.e., data below the limit of detection), 2) incorporate the uncertainty of the solid-to-liquid partitioning of metals, and 3) detect outliers. From a probabilistic perspective, 2 alternative approaches that are based on log-normal and Γ distributions were tested to estimate the probability of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) exceeding the predicted non-effect concentration (PNEC), i.e., p(PEC/PNEC>1). The probabilistic approach was tested on 4 real-case studies based on Cu-related data collected from stations on the Loire and Moselle rivers. The approach described in this article is based on BLM tools that are freely available for end-users (i.e., the Bio-Met software) and on accessible statistical data treatments. This approach could be used by stakeholders who are involved in risk assessments of metals for improving site-specific studies. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

  17. A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London.

    PubMed

    Jenkins, Katie; Hall, Jim; Glenis, Vassilis; Kilsby, Chris

    2018-06-01

    Flooding in urban areas during heavy rainfall, often characterized by short duration and high-intensity events, is known as "surface water flooding." Analyzing surface water flood risk is complex as it requires understanding of biophysical and human factors, such as the localized scale and nature of heavy precipitation events, characteristics of the urban area affected (including detailed topography and drainage networks), and the spatial distribution of economic and social vulnerability. Climate change is recognized as having the potential to enhance the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall events. This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be to be £171 million, £343 million, and £390 million/year under the baseline, 2030 high, and 2050 high climate change scenarios, respectively. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Precursor Analysis for Flight- and Ground-Based Anomaly Risk Significance Determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the precursor analysis for flight and ground based anomaly risk significance. It includes information on accident precursor analysis, real models vs. models, and probabilistic analysis.

  19. Probabilistic health risk assessment for arsenic intake through drinking groundwater in Taiwan's Pingtung Plain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, C. P.; Chen, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    An abundant and inexpensive supply of groundwater is used to meet drinking, agriculture and aquaculture requirements of the residents in the Pingtung Plain. Long-term groundwater quality monitoring data indicate that the As content in groundwater in the Pingtung Plain exceeds the maximum level of 10 g/L recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The situation is further complicated by the fact that only 46.89% of population in the Pingtung Plain has been served with tap water, far below the national average of 92.93%. Considering there is a considerable variation in the measured concentrations, from below the detection limit (<0.1 g/L) to the maximum value of 544 g/L and the consumption rate and body weight of the individual, the conventional approach to conducting a human health risk assessment may be insufficient for health risk management. This study presents a probabilistic risk assessment for inorganic As intake through the consumption of the drinking groundwater by local residents in the Pingtung Plain. The probabilistic risk assessment for inorganic As intake through the consumption of the drinking groundwater is achieved using Monte Carlo simulation technique based on the hazard quotient (HQ) and target cancer risk (TR) established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This study demonstrates the importance of the individual variability of inorganic As intake through drinking groundwater consumption when evaluating a high exposure sub-group of the population who drink high As content groundwater.

  20. Probabilistic flood damage modelling at the meso-scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are usually based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments. Most damage models have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we show how the model BT-FLEMO (Bagging decision Tree based Flood Loss Estimation MOdel) can be applied on the meso-scale, namely on the basis of ATKIS land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated damage to residential buildings per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight other damage models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official damage data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of damage estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation model BT-FLEMO is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64.

  1. A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-11-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  2. Are engineered nano iron oxide particles safe? an environmental risk assessment by probabilistic exposure, effects and risk modeling.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan; Deng, Lei; Caballero-Guzman, Alejandro; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-12-01

    Nano iron oxide particles are beneficial to our daily lives through their use in paints, construction materials, biomedical imaging and other industrial fields. However, little is known about the possible risks associated with the current exposure level of engineered nano iron oxides (nano-FeOX) to organisms in the environment. The goal of this study was to predict the release of nano-FeOX to the environment and assess their risks for surface waters in the EU and Switzerland. The material flows of nano-FeOX to technical compartments (waste incineration and waste water treatment plants) and to the environment were calculated with a probabilistic modeling approach. The mean value of the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of nano-FeOX in surface waters in the EU for a worst-case scenario (no particle sedimentation) was estimated to be 28 ng/l. Using a probabilistic species sensitivity distribution, the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) was determined from ecotoxicological data. The risk characterization ratio, calculated by dividing the PEC by PNEC values, was used to characterize the risks. The mean risk characterization ratio was predicted to be several orders of magnitude smaller than 1 (1.4 × 10 - 4 ). Therefore, this modeling effort indicates that only a very limited risk is posed by the current release level of nano-FeOX to organisms in surface waters. However, a better understanding of the hazards of nano-FeOX to the organisms in other ecosystems (such as sediment) needs to be assessed to determine the overall risk of these particles to the environment.

  3. Statistical aspects and risks of human-caused earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klose, C. D.

    2013-12-01

    The seismological community invests ample human capital and financial resources to research and predict risks associated with earthquakes. Industries such as the insurance and re-insurance sector are equally interested in using probabilistic risk models developed by the scientific community to transfer risks. These models are used to predict expected losses due to naturally occurring earthquakes. But what about the risks associated with human-caused earthquakes? Such risk models are largely absent from both industry and academic discourse. In countries around the world, informed citizens are becoming increasingly aware and concerned that this economic bias is not sustainable for long-term economic growth, environmental and human security. Ultimately, citizens look to their government officials to hold industry accountable. In the Netherlands, for example, the hydrocarbon industry is held accountable for causing earthquakes near Groningen. In Switzerland, geothermal power plants were shut down or suspended because they caused earthquakes in canton Basel and St. Gallen. The public and the private non-extractive industry needs access to information about earthquake risks in connection with sub/urban geoengineeing activities, including natural gas production through fracking, geothermal energy production, carbon sequestration, mining and water irrigation. This presentation illuminates statistical aspects of human-caused earthquakes with respect to different geologic environments. Statistical findings are based on the first catalog of human-caused earthquakes (in Klose 2013). Findings are discussed which include the odds to die during a medium-size earthquake that is set off by geomechanical pollution. Any kind of geoengineering activity causes this type of pollution and increases the likelihood of triggering nearby faults to rupture.

  4. Social safety and medical maintenance of the labour pool in surveillance areas of the nuclear power plants.

    PubMed

    Prylipko, V A; Ozerova, Yu Yu; Kotsubinskij, O V; Morozova, M M; Petrychenko, O O; Bondarenko, I V

    2017-12-01

    To study the contentment of population of NPP surveillance areas i.e. monitoring zones with specific components of quality of life, namely the social security, medical care, and socio economic compensation of risk. A sociological study of public opinion about the specific components of quality of life has been conducted in population of the NPP monitoring zone. A questionnaire with independent question blocks was developed. A non repeatable probabilistic selection was applied in population opinion poll. The sampled population was calculated on the basis of the total population living in the NPP monitoring zone. Sample error not exceeded 7.0%. A comparative assessment of the responses of various groups of the able bodied population on issues of social security, medical care, socio economic compensation of risk and analysis of statistical data for 2011-2015 on the resource potential of medical facility of the nuclear power plant overspill town has been conducted. The safety and security status is rated at below the average. Documents regulating the life safety of pop ulation of NPP monitoring zone provide them no confidence in their security. Probability estimates of man made accidents are higher in urban population and depend on education level. The socialized health care is assessed on low and average levels according to the studied parameters. Among the types of medical care the providing of nec essary medical goods, preventive examinations, scheduled medical examination service, ambulance activity, and medical psychological aid need to be improved. There was no significant change in resource potential of special ized healthcare infirmary of NPP overspill town for the last 5 years. Low rating by the monitoring zone population of work efficiency of health facilities is determined by a set of factors, some of which lies in the plane of state socio economic problems. Choice priority of the direct sub ventions in population of monitoring zone depends on the place of residence and occupation. Provisions on social security, protection and medical care of population of the NPP monitoring zones in Ukraine do not correspond to European standards and require a revision. V.A. Prylipko, Yu.Yu. Ozerova, O.V. Kotsubinskij, M.M. Morozova, O.O. Petrychenko, I.V. Bondarenko.

  5. 2009 Space Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment Overview

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.; Canga, Michael A.; Boyer, Roger L.; Thigpen, Eric B.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of a Space Shuttle during flight has severe consequences, including loss of a significant national asset; loss of national confidence and pride; and, most importantly, loss of human life. The Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) is used to identify risk contributors and their significance; thus, assisting management in determining how to reduce risk. In 2006, an overview of the SPRA Iteration 2.1 was presented at PSAM 8 [1]. Like all successful PRAs, the SPRA is a living PRA and has undergone revisions since PSAM 8. The latest revision to the SPRA is Iteration 3. 1, and it will not be the last as the Shuttle program progresses and more is learned. This paper discusses the SPRA scope, overall methodology, and results, as well as provides risk insights. The scope, assumptions, uncertainties, and limitations of this assessment provide risk-informed perspective to aid management s decision-making process. In addition, this paper compares the Iteration 3.1 analysis and results to the Iteration 2.1 analysis and results presented at PSAM 8.

  6. Distribution and health risk assessment of trace metals in freshwater tilapia from three different aquaculture sites in Jelebu Region (Malaysia).

    PubMed

    Low, Kah Hin; Zain, Sharifuddin Md; Abas, Mhd Radzi; Md Salleh, Kaharudin; Teo, Yin Yin

    2015-06-15

    The trace metal concentrations in edible muscle of red tilapia (Oreochromis spp.) sampled from a former tin mining pool, concrete tank and earthen pond in Jelebu were analysed with microwave assisted digestion-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Results were compared with established legal limits and the daily ingestion exposures simulated using the Monte Carlo algorithm for potential health risks. Among the metals investigated, arsenic was found to be the key contaminant, which may have arisen from the use of formulated feeding pellets. Although the risks of toxicity associated with consumption of red tilapia from the sites investigated were found to be within the tolerable range, the preliminary probabilistic estimation of As cancer risk shows that the 95th percentile risk level surpassed the benchmark level of 10(-5). In general, the probabilistic health risks associated with ingestion of red tilapia can be ranked as follows: former tin mining pool > concrete tank > earthen pond. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Dependence in probabilistic modeling Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ferson, Scott; Nelsen, Roger B.; Hajagos, Janos

    2015-05-01

    This report summarizes methods to incorporate information (or lack of information) about inter-variable dependence into risk assessments that use Dempster-Shafer theory or probability bounds analysis to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. The report reviews techniques for simulating correlated variates for a given correlation measure and dependence model, computation of bounds on distribution functions under a specified dependence model, formulation of parametric and empirical dependence models, and bounding approaches that can be used when information about the intervariable dependence is incomplete. The report also reviews several of the most pervasive and dangerous myths among risk analysts about dependence in probabilistic models.

  8. Hardware-Assisted Large-Scale Neuroevolution for Multiagent Learning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-30

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: This DURIP equipment award was used to purchase, install, and bring on-line two Berkeley Emulation Engines ( BEEs ) and two...mini- BEE machines to establish an FPGA-based high-performance multiagent training platform and its associated software. This acquisition of BEE4-W...Platform; Probabilistic Domain Transformation; Hardware-Assisted; FPGA; BEE ; Hive Brain; Multiagent. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S

  9. Monitoring and exposure assessment of pesticide residues in cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L. Walp) from five provinces of southern China.

    PubMed

    Huan, Zhibo; Xu, Zhi; Luo, Jinhui; Xie, Defang

    2016-11-01

    Residues of 14 pesticides were determined in 150 cowpea samples collected in five southern Chinese provinces in 2013 and 2014.70% samples were detected one or more residues. 61.3% samples were illegal mainly because of detection of unauthorized pesticides. 14.0% samples contained more than three pesticides. Deterministic and probabilistic methods were used to assess the chronic and acute risk of pesticides in cowpea to eight subgroups of people. Deterministic assessment showed that the estimated short-term intakes (ESTIs) of carbofuran were 1199.4%-2621.9% of the acute reference doses (ARfD) while the rates were 985.9%-4114.7% using probabilistic assessment. Probabilistic assessment showed 4.2%-7.8% subjects may suffer from unacceptable acute risk from carbofuran contaminated cowpeas from the five provinces (especially children). But undue concern is not necessary, because all the estimations are based on conservative assumption. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

  11. Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

    PubMed

    Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

    2018-01-01

    Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of possible airborne impact from nuclear risk sites - Part II: probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns in Euro-Arctic region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahura, A. G.; Baklanov, A. A.

    2003-10-01

    The probabilistic analysis of atmospheric transport patterns from most important nuclear risk sites in the Euro-Arctic region is performed employing the methodology developed within the "Arctic Risk" Project of the NARP Programme (Baklanov and Mahura, 2003). The risk sites are the nuclear power plants in the Northwest Russia, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, United Kingdom, and Germany as well as the Novaya Zemlya test site of Russia. The geographical regions of interest are the Northern and Central European countries and Northwest Russia. In this study, the employed research tools are the trajectory model to calculate a multiyear dataset of forward trajectories that originated over the risk site locations, and a set of statistical methods (including exploratory, cluster, and probability fields analyses) for analysis of trajectory modelling results. The probabilistic analyses of trajectory modelling results for eleven sites are presented as a set of various indicators of the risk sites possible impact on geographical regions and countries of interest. The nuclear risk site possible impact (on a particular geographical region, territory, country, site, etc.) due to atmospheric transport from the site after hypothetical accidental release of radioactivity can be properly estimated based on a combined interpretation of the indicators (simple characteristics, atmospheric transport pathways, airflow and fast transport probability fields, maximum reaching distance and maximum possible impact zone, typical transport time and precipitation factor fields) for different time periods (annual, seasonal, and monthly) for any selected site (both separately for each site or grouped for several sites) in the Euro-Arctic region. Such estimation could be the useful input information for the decision-making process, risk assessment, and planning of emergency response systems for sites of nuclear, chemical, and biological danger.

  13. Probabilistic Design Analysis (PDA) Approach to Determine the Probability of Cross-System Failures for a Space Launch Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Lo, Yunnhon; Ward, Natalie C.

    2010-01-01

    Quantifying the probability of significant launch vehicle failure scenarios for a given design, while still in the design process, is critical to mission success and to the safety of the astronauts. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is chosen from many system safety and reliability tools to verify the loss of mission (LOM) and loss of crew (LOC) requirements set by the NASA Program Office. To support the integrated vehicle PRA, probabilistic design analysis (PDA) models are developed by using vehicle design and operation data to better quantify failure probabilities and to better understand the characteristics of a failure and its outcome. This PDA approach uses a physics-based model to describe the system behavior and response for a given failure scenario. Each driving parameter in the model is treated as a random variable with a distribution function. Monte Carlo simulation is used to perform probabilistic calculations to statistically obtain the failure probability. Sensitivity analyses are performed to show how input parameters affect the predicted failure probability, providing insight for potential design improvements to mitigate the risk. The paper discusses the application of the PDA approach in determining the probability of failure for two scenarios from the NASA Ares I project

  14. Probabilistic assessment of roadway departure risk in a curve

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rey, G.; Clair, D.; Fogli, M.; Bernardin, F.

    2011-10-01

    Roadway departure while cornering constitutes a major part of car accidents and casualties in France. Even though drastic policy about overspeeding contributes to reduce accidents, there obviously exist other factors. This article presents the construction of a probabilistic strategy for the roadway departure risk assessment. A specific vehicle dynamic model is developed in which some parameters are modelled by random variables. These parameters are deduced from a sensitivity analysis to ensure an efficient representation of the inherent uncertainties of the system. Then, structural reliability methods are employed to assess the roadway departure risk in function of the initial conditions measured at the entrance of the curve. This study is conducted within the French national road safety project SARI that aims to implement a warning systems alerting the driver in case of dangerous situation.

  15. Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, James T.

    2003-01-01

    Aviation is one of the critical modes of our national transportation system. As such, it is essential that new technologies be continually developed to ensure that a safe mode of transportation becomes even safer in the future. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) is managing the development of new technologies and interventions aimed at reducing the fatal aviation accident rate by a factor of 5 by year 2007 and by a factor of 10 by year 2022. A portfolio assessment is currently being conducted to determine the projected impact that the new technologies and/or interventions may have on reducing aviation safety system risk. This paper reports on advanced risk analytics that combine the use of a human error taxonomy, probabilistic Bayesian Belief Networks, and case-based scenarios to assess a relative risk intensity metric. A sample case is used for illustrative purposes.

  16. Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment for the Hypothetical PDC17 Impact Exercise

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan

    2017-01-01

    Performing impact risk assessment for the 2017 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC17) hypothetical impact exercise, to take place at the PDC17 conference, May 15-20, 2017. Impact scenarios and trajectories are developed and provided by NASA's Near Earth Objects Office at JPL (Paul Chodas). These results represent purely hypothetical impact scenarios, and do not reflect any known asteroid threat. Risk assessment was performed using the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model developed by the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) at NASA Ames Research Center. This presentation includes sample results that may be presented or used in discussions during the various stages of the impact exercisecenter dot Some cases represent alternate scenario options that may not be used during the actual impact exercise at the PDC17 conference. Updates to these initial assessments and/or additional scenario assessments may be performed throughout the impact exercise as different scenario options unfold.

  17. Comparison of a Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approach with Advanced Safety Analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Smith, Curtis L; Mandelli, Diego; Zhegang Ma

    2014-11-01

    As part of the Light Water Sustainability Program (LWRS) [1], the purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) [2] Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margin management with the aim to improve economics, reliability, and sustain safety of current NPPs. In this paper, we describe the RISMC analysis process illustrating how mechanistic and probabilistic approaches are combined in order to estimate a safety margin. We use the scenario of a “station blackout” (SBO) wherein offsite power and onsite power is lost, thereby causing a challenge to plant safety systems. We describe themore » RISMC approach, illustrate the station blackout modeling, and contrast this with traditional risk analysis modeling for this type of accident scenario. We also describe our approach we are using to represent advanced flooding analysis.« less

  18. Rocket engine system reliability analyses using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

    1994-01-01

    The reliability of rocket engine systems was analyzed by using probabilistic and fuzzy logic techniques. Fault trees were developed for integrated modular engine (IME) and discrete engine systems, and then were used with the two techniques to quantify reliability. The IRRAS (Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System) computer code, developed for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, was used for the probabilistic analyses, and FUZZYFTA (Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis), a code developed at NASA Lewis Research Center, was used for the fuzzy logic analyses. Although both techniques provided estimates of the reliability of the IME and discrete systems, probabilistic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from randomness in the system whereas fuzzy logic techniques emphasized uncertainty resulting from vagueness in the system. Because uncertainty can have both random and vague components, both techniques were found to be useful tools in the analysis of rocket engine system reliability.

  19. A Comparison of Probabilistic and Deterministic Campaign Analysis for Human Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Merrill, R. Gabe; Andraschko, Mark; Stromgren, Chel; Cirillo, Bill; Earle, Kevin; Goodliff, Kandyce

    2008-01-01

    Human space exploration is by its very nature an uncertain endeavor. Vehicle reliability, technology development risk, budgetary uncertainty, and launch uncertainty all contribute to stochasticity in an exploration scenario. However, traditional strategic analysis has been done in a deterministic manner, analyzing and optimizing the performance of a series of planned missions. History has shown that exploration scenarios rarely follow such a planned schedule. This paper describes a methodology to integrate deterministic and probabilistic analysis of scenarios in support of human space exploration. Probabilistic strategic analysis is used to simulate "possible" scenario outcomes, based upon the likelihood of occurrence of certain events and a set of pre-determined contingency rules. The results of the probabilistic analysis are compared to the nominal results from the deterministic analysis to evaluate the robustness of the scenario to adverse events and to test and optimize contingency planning.

  20. A blue/green water-based accounting framework for assessment of water security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Dulce B. B.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Mendiondo, Eduardo M.

    2014-09-01

    A comprehensive assessment of water security can incorporate several water-related concepts, while accounting for Blue and Green Water (BW and GW) types defined in accordance with the hydrological processes involved. Here we demonstrate how a quantitative analysis of provision probability and use of BW and GW can be conducted, so as to provide indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability at the basin level. To illustrate the approach, we use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model the hydrology of an agricultural basin (291 km2) within the Cantareira Water Supply System in Brazil. To provide a more comprehensive basis for decision making, we analyze the BW and GW-Footprint components against probabilistic levels (50th and 30th percentile) of freshwater availability for human activities, during a 23 year period. Several contrasting situations of BW provision are distinguished, using different hydrological-based methodologies for specifying monthly Environmental Flow Requirements (EFRs), and the risk of natural EFR violation is evaluated by use of a freshwater provision index. Our results reveal clear spatial and temporal patterns of water scarcity and vulnerability levels within the basin. Taking into account conservation targets for the basin, it appears that the more restrictive EFR methods are more appropriate than the method currently employed at the study basin. The blue/green water-based accounting framework developed here provides a useful integration of hydrologic, ecosystem and human needs information on a monthly basis, thereby improving our understanding of how and where water-related threats to human and aquatic ecosystem security can arise.

  1. Probabilistic modeling of the flows and environmental risks of nano-silica.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan; Kalinina, Anna; Sun, Tianyin; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-03-01

    Nano-silica, the engineered nanomaterial with one of the largest production volumes, has a wide range of applications in consumer products and industry. This study aimed to quantify the exposure of nano-silica to the environment and to assess its risk to surface waters. Concentrations were calculated for four environmental (air, soil, surface water, sediments) and two technical compartments (wastewater, solid waste) for the EU and Switzerland using probabilistic material flow modeling. The corresponding median concentration in surface water is predicted to be 0.12 μg/l in the EU (0.053-3.3 μg/l, 15/85% quantiles). The concentrations in sediments in the complete sedimentation scenario were found to be the largest among all environmental compartments, with a median annual increase of 0.43 mg/kg · y in the EU (0.19-12 mg/kg · y, 15/85% quantiles). Moreover, probabilistic species sensitivity distributions (PSSD) were computed and the risk of nano-silica in surface waters was quantified by comparing the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) with the predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) distribution, which was derived from the cumulative PSSD. This assessment suggests that nano-silica currently poses no risk to aquatic organisms in surface waters. Further investigations are needed to assess the risk of nano-silica in other environmental compartments, which is currently not possible due to a lack of ecotoxicological data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

  3. A Probabilistic Typhoon Risk Model for Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haseemkunju, A.; Smith, D. F.; Brolley, J. M.

    2017-12-01

    Annually, the coastal Provinces of low-lying Mekong River delta region in the southwest to the Red River Delta region in Northern Vietnam is exposed to severe wind and flood risk from landfalling typhoons. On average, about two to three tropical cyclones with a maximum sustained wind speed of >=34 knots make landfall along the Vietnam coast. Recently, Typhoon Wutip (2013) crossed Central Vietnam as a category 2 typhoon causing significant damage to properties. As tropical cyclone risk is expected to increase with increase in exposure and population growth along the coastal Provinces of Vietnam, insurance/reinsurance, and capital markets need a comprehensive probabilistic model to assess typhoon risk in Vietnam. In 2017, CoreLogic has expanded the geographical coverage of its basin-wide Western North Pacific probabilistic typhoon risk model to estimate the economic and insured losses from landfalling and by-passing tropical cyclones in Vietnam. The updated model is based on 71 years (1945-2015) of typhoon best-track data and 10,000 years of a basin-wide simulated stochastic tracks covering eight countries including Vietnam. The model is capable of estimating damage from wind, storm surge and rainfall flooding using vulnerability models, which relate typhoon hazard to building damageability. The hazard and loss models are validated against past historical typhoons affecting Vietnam. Notable typhoons causing significant damage in Vietnam are Lola (1993), Frankie (1996), Xangsane (2006), and Ketsana (2009). The central and northern coastal provinces of Vietnam are more vulnerable to wind and flood hazard, while typhoon risk in the southern provinces are relatively low.

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Bone Fracture - Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Licata, Angelo; Myers, Jerry G.; Lewandowski, Beth

    2013-01-01

    This presentation summarizes the concepts, development, and application of NASA's Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM). The overview includes an assessmnet of strenghts and limitations of the BFxRM and proposes a numebr of discussion questions to the panel regarding future development avenues for this simulation system.

  5. Review of methods for developing probabilistic risk assessments

    Treesearch

    D. A. Weinstein; P.B. Woodbury

    2010-01-01

    We describe methodologies currently in use or those under development containing features for estimating fire occurrence risk assessment. We describe two major categories of fire risk assessment tools: those that predict fire under current conditions, assuming that vegetation, climate, and the interactions between them and fire remain relatively similar to their...

  6. Risk assessment for biodiversity conservation planning in Pacific Northwest forests

    Treesearch

    Becky K. Kerns; Alan Ager

    2007-01-01

    Risk assessment can provide a robust strategy for landscape-scale planning challenges associated with species conservation and habitat protection in Pacific Northwest forests. We provide an overview of quantitative and probabilistic ecological risk assessment with focus on the application of approaches and influences from the actuarial, financial, and technical...

  7. Virtues and Limitations of Risk Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weatherwax, Robert K.

    1975-01-01

    After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

  8. A Robust Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Species Sensitivity Distributions.

    PubMed

    Monti, Gianna S; Filzmoser, Peter; Deutsch, Roland C

    2018-05-03

    The guidelines for setting environmental quality standards are increasingly based on probabilistic risk assessment due to a growing general awareness of the need for probabilistic procedures. One of the commonly used tools in probabilistic risk assessment is the species sensitivity distribution (SSD), which represents the proportion of species affected belonging to a biological assemblage as a function of exposure to a specific toxicant. Our focus is on the inverse use of the SSD curve with the aim of estimating the concentration, HCp, of a toxic compound that is hazardous to p% of the biological community under study. Toward this end, we propose the use of robust statistical methods in order to take into account the presence of outliers or apparent skew in the data, which may occur without any ecological basis. A robust approach exploits the full neighborhood of a parametric model, enabling the analyst to account for the typical real-world deviations from ideal models. We examine two classic HCp estimation approaches and consider robust versions of these estimators. In addition, we also use data transformations in conjunction with robust estimation methods in case of heteroscedasticity. Different scenarios using real data sets as well as simulated data are presented in order to illustrate and compare the proposed approaches. These scenarios illustrate that the use of robust estimation methods enhances HCp estimation. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Probabilistic modeling of percutaneous absorption for risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug delivery.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ho, Clifford Kuofei

    Chemical transport through human skin can play a significant role in human exposure to toxic chemicals in the workplace, as well as to chemical/biological warfare agents in the battlefield. The viability of transdermal drug delivery also relies on chemical transport processes through the skin. Models of percutaneous absorption are needed for risk-based exposure assessments and drug-delivery analyses, but previous mechanistic models have been largely deterministic. A probabilistic, transient, three-phase model of percutaneous absorption of chemicals has been developed to assess the relative importance of uncertain parameters and processes that may be important to risk-based assessments. Penetration routes through the skinmore » that were modeled include the following: (1) intercellular diffusion through the multiphase stratum corneum; (2) aqueous-phase diffusion through sweat ducts; and (3) oil-phase diffusion through hair follicles. Uncertainty distributions were developed for the model parameters, and a Monte Carlo analysis was performed to simulate probability distributions of mass fluxes through each of the routes. Sensitivity analyses using stepwise linear regression were also performed to identify model parameters that were most important to the simulated mass fluxes at different times. This probabilistic analysis of percutaneous absorption (PAPA) method has been developed to improve risk-based exposure assessments and transdermal drug-delivery analyses, where parameters and processes can be highly uncertain.« less

  10. Progress report on the Worldwide Earthquake Risk Management (WWERM) Program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Algermissen, S.T.; Hays, Walter W.; Krumpe, Paul R.

    1992-01-01

    Considerable progress has been made in the Worldwide Earthquake Risk Management (WWERM) Program since its initiation in late 1989 as a cooperative program of the Agency for International Development (AID), Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA), and the U.S. Geological Survey. Probabilistic peak acceleration and peak Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) maps have been prepared for Chile and for Sulawesi province in Indonesia. Earthquake risk (loss) studies for dwellings in Gorontalo, North Sulawesi, have been completed and risk studies for dwellings in selected areas of central Chile are underway. A special study of the effect of site response on earthquake ground motion estimation in central Chile has also been completed and indicates that site response may modify the ground shaking by as much as plus or minus two units of MMI. A program for the development of national probabilistic ground motion maps for the Philippines is now underway and pilot studies of earthquake ground motion and risk are being planned for Morocco.

  11. MATILDA Version 2: Rough Earth TIALD Model for Laser Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Hilly Terrain - Part I

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-13

    support of airborne laser designator use during test and training exercises on military ranges. The initial MATILDA tool, MATILDA PRO Version-1.6.1...was based on the 2007 PRA model developed to perform range safety clearances for the UK Thermal Imaging Airborne Laser Designator (TIALD) system...AFRL Technical Reports. This Technical Report, designated Part I, con- tains documentation of the computational procedures for probabilistic fault

  12. PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING FOR ADVANCED MACHINE LEARNING (PPAML) DISCRIMINATIVE LEARNING FOR GENERATIVE TASKS (DILIGENT)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-11-29

    Structural connections of the frames (fragments) in the knowledge. We call the fundamental elements of the knowledge a limited number of elements...the result of contracted fundamental research deemed exempt from public affairs security and policy review in accordance with SAF/AQR memorandum dated...AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. This report is the result of contracted fundamental research deemed exempt from

  13. Inspection Correlation Study of Ultrasonic-Based In Situ Structural Health Monitoring Monthly Report for December 2014-January 2015

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-01

    fatigue an induced ultrasonic elastic vibration (via piezoelectric transducers [ PZTs ]) propagates through the dogbone specimen. A receiver PZT picks up...inspection of fatigue crack growth in aluminum 7075-T6 dogbone specimens. Acellent Technologies, Inc., is supporting this project through providing...January 2015. 15. SUBJECT TERMS structural health monitoring, probabilistics, fatigue damage, guided waves, Lamb waves 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

  14. Risk-Based Treatment Targets for Onsite Non-Potable Water Reuse

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presents risk-based enteric pathogen log reduction targets for non-potable and potable uses of a variety of alternative source waters (i.e., municipal wastewater, locally-collected greywater, rainwater, and stormwater). A probabilistic, forward Quantitative Micr...

  15. Spatially Informed Plant PRA Models for Security Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Wheeler, Timothy A.; Thomas, Willard; Thornsbury, Eric

    2006-07-01

    Traditional risk models can be adapted to evaluate plant response for situations where plant systems and structures are intentionally damaged, such as from sabotage or terrorism. This paper describes a process by which traditional risk models can be spatially informed to analyze the effects of compound and widespread harsh environments through the use of 'damage footprints'. A 'damage footprint' is a spatial map of regions of the plant (zones) where equipment could be physically destroyed or disabled as a direct consequence of an intentional act. The use of 'damage footprints' requires that the basic events from the traditional probabilistic riskmore » assessment (PRA) be spatially transformed so that the failure of individual components can be linked to the destruction of or damage to specific spatial zones within the plant. Given the nature of intentional acts, extensive modifications must be made to the risk models to account for the special nature of the 'initiating events' associated with deliberate adversary actions. Intentional acts might produce harsh environments that in turn could subject components and structures to one or more insults, such as structural, fire, flood, and/or vibration and shock damage. Furthermore, the potential for widespread damage from some of these insults requires an approach that addresses the impacts of these potentially severe insults even when they occur in locations distant from the actual physical location of a component or structure modeled in the traditional PRA. (authors)« less

  16. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

  17. Obesity as a risk factor for developing functional limitation among older adults: A conditional inference tree analysis

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Objective: To examine the risk factors of developing functional decline and make probabilistic predictions by using a tree-based method that allows higher order polynomials and interactions of the risk factors. Methods: The conditional inference tree analysis, a data mining approach, was used to con...

  18. Risk-based enteric pathogen reduction targets for non-potable and direct potable use of roof runoff, stormwater, and greywater

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper presents risk-based enteric pathogen log reduction targets for non-potable and potable uses of a variety of alternative source waters (i.e., locally-collected greywater, roof runoff, and stormwater). A probabilistic Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) was use...

  19. The Integrated Medical Model - A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Human Space Flight Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerstman, Eric; Minard, Charles G.; Saile, Lynn; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei; Butler, Douglas; Lopez, Vilma

    2010-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to space flight mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and optimizing medical systems. The IMM employs an evidence-based, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach within the operational constraints of space flight.

  20. Future trends in flood risk in Indonesia - A probabilistic approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muis, Sanne; Guneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Indonesia is one of the 10 most populous countries in the world and is highly vulnerable to (river) flooding. Catastrophic floods occur on a regular basis; total estimated damages were US 0.8 bn in 2010 and US 3 bn in 2013. Large parts of Greater Jakarta, the capital city, are annually subject to flooding. Flood risks (i.e. the product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability) are increasing due to rapid increases in exposure, such as strong population growth and ongoing economic development. The increase in risk may also be amplified by increasing flood hazards, such as increasing flood frequency and intensity due to climate change and land subsidence. The implementation of adaptation measures, such as the construction of dykes and strategic urban planning, may counteract these increasing trends. However, despite its importance for adaptation planning, a comprehensive assessment of current and future flood risk in Indonesia is lacking. This contribution addresses this issue and aims to provide insight into how socio-economic trends and climate change projections may shape future flood risks in Indonesia. Flood risk were calculated using an adapted version of the GLOFRIS global flood risk assessment model. Using this approach, we produced probabilistic maps of flood risks (i.e. annual expected damage) at a resolution of 30"x30" (ca. 1km x 1km at the equator). To represent flood exposure, we produced probabilistic projections of urban growth in a Monte-Carlo fashion based on probability density functions of projected population and GDP values for 2030. To represent flood hazard, inundation maps were computed using the hydrological-hydraulic component of GLOFRIS. These maps show flood inundation extent and depth for several return periods and were produced for several combinations of GCMs and future socioeconomic scenarios. Finally, the implementation of different adaptation strategies was incorporated into the model to explore to what extent adaptation may be able to decrease future risks. Preliminary results show that the urban extent in Indonesia is projected to increase within 211 to 351% over the period 2000-2030 (5 and 95 percentile). Mainly driven by this rapid urbanization, potential flood losses in Indonesia increase rapidly and are primarily concentrated on the island of Java. The results reveal the large risk-reducing potential of adaptation measures. Since much of the urban development between 2000 and 2030 takes place in flood-prone areas, strategic urban planning (i.e. building in safe areas) may significantly reduce the urban population and infrastructure exposed to flooding. We conclude that a probabilistic risk approach in future flood risk assessment is vital; the drivers behind risk trends (exposure, hazard, vulnerability) should be understood to develop robust and efficient adaptation pathways.

  1. The ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on off-shore oil platforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capuano, Paolo; Basco, Anna; Di Ruocco, Angela; Esposito, Simona; Fusco, Giannetta; Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Mercogliano, Paola; Salzano, Ernesto; Solaro, Giuseppe; Teofilo, Gianvito; Scandone, Paolo; Gasparini, Paolo

    2017-04-01

    ARGO (Analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on off-shore oil platforms) is a 2 years project, funded by the DGS-UNMIG (Directorate General for Safety of Mining and Energy Activities - National Mining Office for Hydrocarbons and Georesources) of Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA (Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk), aims at providing technical support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil platforms. In order to achieve this challenging objective, ARGO brings together climate experts, risk management experts, seismologists, geologists, chemical engineers, earth and coastal observation experts. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore oil platforms in the Italian seas, including extreme events related to climate changes. Furthermore the environmental effect of offshore activities has been investigated, including: changes on seismicity and on the evolution of coastal areas close to offshore platforms. Then a probabilistic multi-risk framework has been developed for the analysis of NA-TECH events on offshore installations for hydrocarbon extraction.

  2. NASA Applications and Lessons Learned in Reliability Engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Fuller, Raymond P.

    2011-01-01

    Since the Shuttle Challenger accident in 1986, communities across NASA have been developing and extensively using quantitative reliability and risk assessment methods in their decision making process. This paper discusses several reliability engineering applications that NASA has used over the year to support the design, development, and operation of critical space flight hardware. Specifically, the paper discusses several reliability engineering applications used by NASA in areas such as risk management, inspection policies, components upgrades, reliability growth, integrated failure analysis, and physics based probabilistic engineering analysis. In each of these areas, the paper provides a brief discussion of a case study to demonstrate the value added and the criticality of reliability engineering in supporting NASA project and program decisions to fly safely. Examples of these case studies discussed are reliability based life limit extension of Shuttle Space Main Engine (SSME) hardware, Reliability based inspection policies for Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) turbine disc, probabilistic structural engineering analysis for reliability prediction of the SSME alternate turbo-pump development, impact of ET foam reliability on the Space Shuttle System risk, and reliability based Space Shuttle upgrade for safety. Special attention is given in this paper to the physics based probabilistic engineering analysis applications and their critical role in evaluating the reliability of NASA development hardware including their potential use in a research and technology development environment.

  3. A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations. Probabilistic approaches can provide both a quantitative weighing of lines of evidence and methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty. The current modeling structure wasdeveloped for propagating uncertainties in measured endpoints and their influence on the plausibility of adverse effects. To illustrate the approach, we apply the model framework to the sediment quality triad using example lines of evidence for sediment chemistry measurements, bioassay results, and in situ infauna diversity of benthic communities using a simplified hypothetical case study. We then combine the three lines evidence and evaluate sensitivity to the input parameters, and show how uncertainties are propagated and how additional information can be incorporated to rapidly update the probability of impacts. The developed network model can be expanded to accommodate additional lines of evidence, variables and states of importance, and different types of uncertainties in the lines of evidence including spatial and temporal as well as measurement errors. We provide a flexible Bayesian network structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for ecological risk determinations

  4. Probabilistic Risk Assessment Process for High-Power Laser Operations in Outdoor Environments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-01

    avionics data bus. In the case of a UAS-mounted laser system, the control path will additionally include a radio or satellite communications link. A remote...JBSA Fort Sam Houston, TX 78234 711 HPW/RHDO 11 . SPONSOR’S/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) AFRL-RH-FS-JA-2015...hazard assessment pur- poses is not widespread within the laser safety community . The aim of this paper is to outline the basis of the probabilistic

  5. Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment at Seaside, Oregon, for near-and far-field seismic sources

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gonzalez, F.I.; Geist, E.L.; Jaffe, B.; Kanoglu, U.; Mofjeld, H.; Synolakis, C.E.; Titov, V.V.; Areas, D.; Bellomo, D.; Carlton, D.; Horning, T.; Johnson, J.; Newman, J.; Parsons, T.; Peters, R.; Peterson, C.; Priest, G.; Venturato, A.; Weber, J.; Wong, F.; Yalciner, A.

    2009-01-01

    The first probabilistic tsunami flooding maps have been developed. The methodology, called probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), integrates tsunami inundation modeling with methods of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Application of the methodology to Seaside, Oregon, has yielded estimates of the spatial distribution of 100- and 500-year maximum tsunami amplitudes, i.e., amplitudes with 1% and 0.2% annual probability of exceedance. The 100-year tsunami is generated most frequently by far-field sources in the Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes that do not exceed 4 m, with an inland extent of less than 500 m. In contrast, the 500-year tsunami is dominated by local sources in the Cascadia Subduction Zone and is characterized by maximum amplitudes in excess of 10 m and an inland extent of more than 1 km. The primary sources of uncertainty in these results include those associated with interevent time estimates, modeling of background sea level, and accounting for temporal changes in bathymetry and topography. Nonetheless, PTHA represents an important contribution to tsunami hazard assessment techniques; viewed in the broader context of risk analysis, PTHA provides a method for quantifying estimates of the likelihood and severity of the tsunami hazard, which can then be combined with vulnerability and exposure to yield estimates of tsunami risk. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  6. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Cloke, Hannah Louise; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-08-01

    Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.

  7. Regional probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses: An urbanization-affected drinking water supply area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Chi; Cai, Yimin; Wang, Tieyu; Xiao, Rongbo; Chen, Weiping

    2016-11-01

    In this study, we proposed a Regional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (RPRA) to estimate the health risks of exposing residents to heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses. The mean and ranges of heavy metal concentrations were measured in water, sediments, soil profiles and surface soils under four land uses along the Shunde Waterway, a drinking water supply area in China. Hazard quotients (HQs) were estimated for various exposure routes and heavy metal species. Riverbank vegetable plots and private vegetable plots had 95th percentiles of total HQs greater than 3 and 1, respectively, indicating high risks of cultivation on the flooded riverbank. Vegetable uptake and leaching to groundwater were the two transfer routes of soil metals causing high health risks. Exposure risks during outdoor recreation, farming and swimming along the Shunde Waterway are theoretically safe. Arsenic and cadmium were identified as the priority pollutants that contribute the most risk among the heavy metals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the exposure route, variations in exposure parameters, mobility of heavy metals in soil, and metal concentrations all influenced the risk estimates.

  8. Human Reliability Analysis in Support of Risk Assessment for Positive Train Control

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2003-06-01

    This report describes an approach to evaluating the reliability of human actions that are modeled in a probabilistic risk assessment : (PRA) of train control operations. This approach to human reliability analysis (HRA) has been applied in the case o...

  9. A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

  10. Aggregate exposure approaches for parabens in personal care products: a case assessment for children between 0 and 3 years old

    PubMed Central

    Gosens, Ilse; Delmaar, Christiaan J E; ter Burg, Wouter; de Heer, Cees; Schuur, A Gerlienke

    2014-01-01

    In the risk assessment of chemical substances, aggregation of exposure to a substance from different sources via different pathways is not common practice. Focusing the exposure assessment on a substance from a single source can lead to a significant underestimation of the risk. To gain more insight on how to perform an aggregate exposure assessment, we applied a deterministic (tier 1) and a person-oriented probabilistic approach (tier 2) for exposure to the four most common parabens through personal care products in children between 0 and 3 years old. Following a deterministic approach, a worst-case exposure estimate is calculated for methyl-, ethyl-, propyl- and butylparaben. As an illustration for risk assessment, Margins of Exposure (MoE) are calculated. These are 991 and 4966 for methyl- and ethylparaben, and 8 and 10 for propyl- and butylparaben, respectively. In tier 2, more detailed information on product use has been obtained from a small survey on product use of consumers. A probabilistic exposure assessment is performed to estimate the variability and uncertainty of exposure in a population. Results show that the internal exposure for each paraben is below the level determined in tier 1. However, for propyl- and butylparaben, the percentile of the population with an exposure probability above the assumed “safe” MoE of 100, is 13% and 7%, respectively. In conclusion, a tier 1 approach can be performed using simple equations and default point estimates, and serves as a starting point for exposure and risk assessment. If refinement is warranted, the more data demanding person-oriented probabilistic approach should be used. This probabilistic approach results in a more realistic exposure estimate, including the uncertainty, and allows determining the main drivers of exposure. Furthermore, it allows to estimate the percentage of the population for which the exposure is likely to be above a specific value. PMID:23801276

  11. Application of Probabilistic Modeling to Quantify the Reduction Levels of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk Attributable to Chronic Aflatoxins Exposure.

    PubMed

    Wambui, Joseph M; Karuri, Edward G; Ojiambo, Julia A; Njage, Patrick M K

    2017-01-01

    Epidemiological studies show a definite connection between areas of high aflatoxin content and a high occurrence of human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis B virus in individuals further increases the risk of HCC. The two risk factors are prevalent in rural Kenya and continuously predispose the rural populations to HCC. A quantitative cancer risk assessment therefore quantified the levels at which potential pre- and postharvest interventions reduce the HCC risk attributable to consumption of contaminated maize and groundnuts. The assessment applied a probabilistic model to derive probability distributions of HCC cases and percentage reductions levels of the risk from secondary data. Contaminated maize and groundnuts contributed to 1,847 ± 514 and 158 ± 52 HCC cases per annum, respectively. The total contribution of both foods to the risk was additive as it resulted in 2,000 ± 518 cases per annum. Consumption and contamination levels contributed significantly to the risk whereby lower age groups were most affected. Nonetheless, pre- and postharvest interventions might reduce the risk by 23.0-83.4% and 4.8-95.1%, respectively. Therefore, chronic exposure to aflatoxins increases the HCC risk in rural Kenya, but a significant reduction of the risk can be achieved by applying specific pre- and postharvest interventions.

  12. Incorporating psychological influences in probabilistic cost analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kujawski, Edouard; Alvaro, Mariana; Edwards, William

    2004-01-08

    Today's typical probabilistic cost analysis assumes an ''ideal'' project that is devoid of the human and organizational considerations that heavily influence the success and cost of real-world projects. In the real world ''Money Allocated Is Money Spent'' (MAIMS principle); cost underruns are rarely available to protect against cost overruns while task overruns are passed on to the total project cost. Realistic cost estimates therefore require a modified probabilistic cost analysis that simultaneously models the cost management strategy including budget allocation. Psychological influences such as overconfidence in assessing uncertainties and dependencies among cost elements and risks are other important considerations thatmore » are generally not addressed. It should then be no surprise that actual project costs often exceed the initial estimates and are delivered late and/or with a reduced scope. This paper presents a practical probabilistic cost analysis model that incorporates recent findings in human behavior and judgment under uncertainty, dependencies among cost elements, the MAIMS principle, and project management practices. Uncertain cost elements are elicited from experts using the direct fractile assessment method and fitted with three-parameter Weibull distributions. The full correlation matrix is specified in terms of two parameters that characterize correlations among cost elements in the same and in different subsystems. The analysis is readily implemented using standard Monte Carlo simulation tools such as {at}Risk and Crystal Ball{reg_sign}. The analysis of a representative design and engineering project substantiates that today's typical probabilistic cost analysis is likely to severely underestimate project cost for probability of success values of importance to contractors and procuring activities. The proposed approach provides a framework for developing a viable cost management strategy for allocating baseline budgets and contingencies. Given the scope and magnitude of the cost-overrun problem, the benefits are likely to be significant.« less

  13. New ShakeMaps for Georgia Resulting from Collaboration with EMME

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kvavadze, N.; Tsereteli, N. S.; Varazanashvili, O.; Alania, V.

    2015-12-01

    Correct assessment of probabilistic seismic hazard and risks maps are first step for advance planning and action to reduce seismic risk. Seismic hazard maps for Georgia were calculated based on modern approach that was developed in the frame of EMME (Earthquake Modl for Middle east region) project. EMME was one of GEM's successful endeavors at regional level. With EMME and GEM assistance, regional models were analyzed to identify the information and additional work needed for the preparation national hazard models. Probabilistic seismic hazard map (PSH) provides the critical bases for improved building code and construction. The most serious deficiency in PSH assessment for the territory of Georgia is the lack of high-quality ground motion data. Due to this an initial hybrid empirical ground motion model is developed for PGA and SA at selected periods. An application of these coefficients for ground motion models have been used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Obtained results of seismic hazard maps show evidence that there were gaps in seismic hazard assessment and the present normative seismic hazard map needed a careful recalculation.

  14. Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka

    2006-07-01

    It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present anmore » example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)« less

  15. Efficient Location Uncertainty Treatment for Probabilistic Modelling of Portfolio Loss from Earthquake Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheingraber, Christoph; Käser, Martin; Allmann, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method for modelling loss from earthquake events. In the insurance industry, it is widely employed for probabilistic modelling of loss to a distributed portfolio. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown, which results in considerable loss uncertainty. The treatment of exposure uncertainty has already been identified as an area where PSRA would benefit from increased research attention. However, so far, epistemic location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. We propose a new framework for efficient treatment of location uncertainty. To demonstrate the usefulness of this novel method, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling real-world portfolios is systematically analyzed. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. Several sampling criteria to increase the computational efficiency of the framework are proposed and put into the wider context of well-established Monte-Carlo variance reduction techniques. The performance of each of the proposed criteria is analyzed.

  16. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Updating for Railway Bridges Based on Local Inspection and Repair.

    PubMed

    Lee, Young-Joo; Kim, Robin E; Suh, Wonho; Park, Kiwon

    2017-04-24

    Railway bridges are exposed to repeated train loads, which may cause fatigue failure. As critical links in a transportation network, railway bridges are expected to survive for a target period of time, but sometimes they fail earlier than expected. To guarantee the target bridge life, bridge maintenance activities such as local inspection and repair should be undertaken properly. However, this is a challenging task because there are various sources of uncertainty associated with aging bridges, train loads, environmental conditions, and maintenance work. Therefore, to perform optimal risk-based maintenance of railway bridges, it is essential to estimate the probabilistic fatigue life of a railway bridge and update the life information based on the results of local inspections and repair. Recently, a system reliability approach was proposed to evaluate the fatigue failure risk of structural systems and update the prior risk information in various inspection scenarios. However, this approach can handle only a constant-amplitude load and has limitations in considering a cyclic load with varying amplitude levels, which is the major loading pattern generated by train traffic. In addition, it is not feasible to update the prior risk information after bridges are repaired. In this research, the system reliability approach is further developed so that it can handle a varying-amplitude load and update the system-level risk of fatigue failure for railway bridges after inspection and repair. The proposed method is applied to a numerical example of an in-service railway bridge, and the effects of inspection and repair on the probabilistic fatigue life are discussed.

  17. Probabilistic Fatigue Life Updating for Railway Bridges Based on Local Inspection and Repair

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Young-Joo; Kim, Robin E.; Suh, Wonho; Park, Kiwon

    2017-01-01

    Railway bridges are exposed to repeated train loads, which may cause fatigue failure. As critical links in a transportation network, railway bridges are expected to survive for a target period of time, but sometimes they fail earlier than expected. To guarantee the target bridge life, bridge maintenance activities such as local inspection and repair should be undertaken properly. However, this is a challenging task because there are various sources of uncertainty associated with aging bridges, train loads, environmental conditions, and maintenance work. Therefore, to perform optimal risk-based maintenance of railway bridges, it is essential to estimate the probabilistic fatigue life of a railway bridge and update the life information based on the results of local inspections and repair. Recently, a system reliability approach was proposed to evaluate the fatigue failure risk of structural systems and update the prior risk information in various inspection scenarios. However, this approach can handle only a constant-amplitude load and has limitations in considering a cyclic load with varying amplitude levels, which is the major loading pattern generated by train traffic. In addition, it is not feasible to update the prior risk information after bridges are repaired. In this research, the system reliability approach is further developed so that it can handle a varying-amplitude load and update the system-level risk of fatigue failure for railway bridges after inspection and repair. The proposed method is applied to a numerical example of an in-service railway bridge, and the effects of inspection and repair on the probabilistic fatigue life are discussed. PMID:28441768

  18. Analysis and probabilistic risk assessment of bioaccessible arsenic in polished and husked jasmine rice sold in Bangkok.

    PubMed

    Hensawang, Supanad; Chanpiwat, Penradee

    2018-09-01

    Food is one of the major sources of arsenic (As) exposure in humans. The objectives of this study were to determine the bioaccessible concentration of As in rice grain sold in Bangkok and to evaluate the potential health risks associated with rice consumption. Polished (n = 32) and husked (n = 17) jasmine rice were collected from local markets. In vitro digestion was performed to determine the bioaccessible As concentrations, which were used for probabilistic health risk assessments in different age groups of the population. Approximately 43.0% and 44.4% of the total As in the grain of polished and husked rice, respectively, was in the form of bioaccessible As. Significantly higher bioaccessible As concentrations were found in husked rice than in polished rice (1.5-3.8 times greater). The concentrations of bioaccessible As in polished and husked rice were lower than the Codex standard for As in rice. The average daily dose of As via rice consumption is equivalent to the daily ingestion of 2 L of water containing approximately 3.2-7.2 μg L -1 of As. Approximately 0.2%-13.7% and 10.7%-55.3% of the population may experience non-carcinogenic effects from polished and husked rice consumption, respectively. Approximately 1%-11.6% of children and 74.1%-99.8% of adults were at risk of cancer. The maximum cancer probabilities were 3 children and 6 adults in 10,000 individuals. The probabilistic risk results indicated that children and adults were at risk of both non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects from both types of rice consumption. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Clinical predictors of conversion to bipolar disorder in a prospective longitudinal familial high-risk sample: focus on depressive features.

    PubMed

    Frankland, Andrew; Roberts, Gloria; Holmes-Preston, Ellen; Perich, Tania; Levy, Florence; Lenroot, Rhoshel; Hadzi-Pavlovic, Dusan; Breakspear, Michael; Mitchell, Philip B

    2017-11-07

    Identifying clinical features that predict conversion to bipolar disorder (BD) in those at high familial risk (HR) would assist in identifying a more focused population for early intervention. In total 287 participants aged 12-30 (163 HR with a first-degree relative with BD and 124 controls (CONs)) were followed annually for a median of 5 years. We used the baseline presence of DSM-IV depressive, anxiety, behavioural and substance use disorders, as well as a constellation of specific depressive symptoms (as identified by the Probabilistic Approach to Bipolar Depression) to predict the subsequent development of hypo/manic episodes. At baseline, HR participants were significantly more likely to report ⩾4 Probabilistic features (40.4%) when depressed than CONs (6.7%; p < .05). Nineteen HR subjects later developed either threshold (n = 8; 4.9%) or subthreshold (n = 11; 6.7%) hypo/mania. The presence of ⩾4 Probabilistic features was associated with a seven-fold increase in the risk of 'conversion' to threshold BD (hazard ratio = 6.9, p < .05) above and beyond the fourteen-fold increase in risk related to major depressive episodes (MDEs) per se (hazard ratio = 13.9, p < .05). Individual depressive features predicting conversion were psychomotor retardation and ⩾5 MDEs. Behavioural disorders only predicted conversion to subthreshold BD (hazard ratio = 5.23, p < .01), while anxiety and substance disorders did not predict either threshold or subthreshold hypo/mania. This study suggests that specific depressive characteristics substantially increase the risk of young people at familial risk of BD going on to develop future hypo/manic episodes and may identify a more targeted HR population for the development of early intervention programs.

  20. Probabilistic Tracking and Trajectory Planning for Autonomous Ground Vehicles in Urban Environments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-03-05

    SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The aim of this research is to develop a unified theory for perception and planning in autonomous ground vehicles, with a...Report Title The aim of this research is to develop a unified theory for perception and planning in autonomous ground vehicles, with a specific focus on...a combination of experimentally collected vision data and Monte- Carlo simulations. Smoothing for improved perception and robustness in planning

  1. Guidelines for developing NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk management plans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tompkins, F. G.

    1983-01-01

    This report presents guidance to NASA Computer security officials for developing ADP security risk management plans. The six components of the risk management process are identified and discussed. Guidance is presented on how to manage security risks that have been identified during a risk analysis performed at a data processing facility or during the security evaluation of an application system.

  2. PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS OF RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSALS - a case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinchero, P.; Delos, A.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Bolster, D.; Dentz, M.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Molinero, J.

    2009-12-01

    The storage of contaminant material in superficial or sub-superficial repositories, such as tailing piles for mine waste or disposal sites for low and intermediate nuclear waste, poses a potential threat for the surrounding biosphere. The minimization of these risks can be achieved by supporting decision-makers with quantitative tools capable to incorporate all source of uncertainty within a rigorous probabilistic framework. A case study is presented where we assess the risks associated to the superficial storage of hazardous waste close to a populated area. The intrinsic complexity of the problem, involving many events with different spatial and time scales and many uncertainty parameters is overcome by using a formal PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) procedure that allows decomposing the system into a number of key events. Hence, the failure of the system is directly linked to the potential contamination of one of the three main receptors: the underlying karst aquifer, a superficial stream that flows near the storage piles and a protection area surrounding a number of wells used for water supply. The minimal cut sets leading to the failure of the system are obtained by defining a fault-tree that incorporates different events including the failure of the engineered system (e.g. cover of the piles) and the failure of the geological barrier (e.g. clay layer that separates the bottom of the pile from the karst formation). Finally the probability of failure is quantitatively assessed combining individual independent or conditional probabilities that are computed numerically or borrowed from reliability database.

  3. Quantitative Risk Modeling of Fire on the International Space Station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Castillo, Theresa; Haught, Megan

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) Program has worked to prevent fire events and to mitigate their impacts should they occur. Hardware is designed to reduce sources of ignition, oxygen systems are designed to control leaking, flammable materials are prevented from flying to ISS whenever possible, the crew is trained in fire response, and fire response equipment improvements are sought out and funded. Fire prevention and mitigation are a top ISS Program priority - however, programmatic resources are limited; thus, risk trades are made to ensure an adequate level of safety is maintained onboard the ISS. In support of these risk trades, the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) team has modeled the likelihood of fire occurring in the ISS pressurized cabin, a phenomenological event that has never before been probabilistically modeled in a microgravity environment. This paper will discuss the genesis of the ISS PRA fire model, its enhancement in collaboration with fire experts, and the results which have informed ISS programmatic decisions and will continue to be used throughout the life of the program.

  4. Why is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) still used?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Stark, Philip B.; Geller, Robert J.

    2017-03-01

    Even though it has never been validated by objective testing, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has been widely used for almost 50 years by governments and industry in applications with lives and property hanging in the balance, such as deciding safety criteria for nuclear power plants, making official national hazard maps, developing building code requirements, and determining earthquake insurance rates. PSHA rests on assumptions now known to conflict with earthquake physics; many damaging earthquakes, including the 1988 Spitak, Armenia, event and the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, event, have occurred in regions relatively rated low-risk by PSHA hazard maps. No extant method, including PSHA, produces reliable estimates of seismic hazard. Earthquake hazard mitigation should be recognized to be inherently political, involving a tradeoff between uncertain costs and uncertain risks. Earthquake scientists, engineers, and risk managers can make important contributions to the hard problem of allocating limited resources wisely, but government officials and stakeholders must take responsibility for the risks of accidents due to natural events that exceed the adopted safety criteria.

  5. Shuttle Risk Progression by Flight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri; Kahn, Joe; Thigpen, Eric; Zhu, Tony; Lo, Yohon

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the early mission risk and progression of risk as a vehicle gains insights through flight is important: . a) To the Shuttle Program to understand the impact of re-designs and operational changes on risk. . b) To new programs to understand reliability growth and first flight risk. . Estimation of Shuttle Risk Progression by flight: . a) Uses Shuttle Probabilistic Risk Assessment (SPRA) and current knowledge to calculate early vehicle risk. . b) Shows impact of major Shuttle upgrades. . c) Can be used to understand first flight risk for new programs.

  6. Probabilistic dose-response modeling: case study using dichloromethane PBPK model results.

    PubMed

    Marino, Dale J; Starr, Thomas B

    2007-12-01

    A revised assessment of dichloromethane (DCM) has recently been reported that examines the influence of human genetic polymorphisms on cancer risks using deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse combined with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans. This assessment utilized Bayesian techniques to optimize kinetic variables in mice and humans with mean values from posterior distributions used in the deterministic modeling in the mouse. To supplement this research, a case study was undertaken to examine the potential impact of probabilistic rather than deterministic PBPK and dose-response modeling in mice on subsequent unit risk factor (URF) determinations. Four separate PBPK cases were examined based on the exposure regimen of the NTP DCM bioassay. These were (a) Same Mouse (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups); (b) Correlated BW-Same Inputs (single draw of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except for bodyweights (BWs), which were entered as correlated variables); (c) Correlated BW-Different Inputs (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups except that BWs were entered as correlated variables); and (d) Different Mouse (separate draws of all PBPK inputs for both treatment groups). Monte Carlo PBPK inputs reflect posterior distributions from Bayesian calibration in the mouse that had been previously reported. A minimum of 12,500 PBPK iterations were undertaken, in which dose metrics, i.e., mg DCM metabolized by the GST pathway/L tissue/day for lung and liver were determined. For dose-response modeling, these metrics were combined with NTP tumor incidence data that were randomly selected from binomial distributions. Resultant potency factors (0.1/ED(10)) were coupled with probabilistic PBPK modeling in humans that incorporated genetic polymorphisms to derive URFs. Results show that there was relatively little difference, i.e., <10% in central tendency and upper percentile URFs, regardless of the case evaluated. Independent draws of PBPK inputs resulted in the slightly higher URFs. Results were also comparable to corresponding values from the previously reported deterministic mouse PBPK and dose-response modeling approach that used LED(10)s to derive potency factors. This finding indicated that the adjustment from ED(10) to LED(10) in the deterministic approach for DCM compensated for variability resulting from probabilistic PBPK and dose-response modeling in the mouse. Finally, results show a similar degree of variability in DCM risk estimates from a number of different sources including the current effort even though these estimates were developed using very different techniques. Given the variety of different approaches involved, 95th percentile-to-mean risk estimate ratios of 2.1-4.1 represent reasonable bounds on variability estimates regarding probabilistic assessments of DCM.

  7. An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

    2003-09-01

    This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

  8. Risk assessment of CST-7 proposed waste treatment and storage facilities Volume I: Limited-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of proposed CST-7 waste treatment & storage facilities. Volume II: Preliminary hazards analysis of proposed CST-7 waste storage & treatment facilities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sasser, K.

    1994-06-01

    In FY 1993, the Los Alamos National Laboratory Waste Management Group [CST-7 (formerly EM-7)] requested the Probabilistic Risk and Hazards Analysis Group [TSA-11 (formerly N-6)] to conduct a study of the hazards associated with several CST-7 facilities. Among these facilities are the Hazardous Waste Treatment Facility (HWTF), the HWTF Drum Storage Building (DSB), and the Mixed Waste Receiving and Storage Facility (MWRSF), which are proposed for construction beginning in 1996. These facilities are needed to upgrade the Laboratory`s storage capability for hazardous and mixed wastes and to provide treatment capabilities for wastes in cases where offsite treatment is not availablemore » or desirable. These facilities will assist Los Alamos in complying with federal and state requlations.« less

  9. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio As; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-02-24

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.

  10. Probabilistic wind/tornado/missile analyses for hazard and fragility evaluations

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Park, Y.J.; Reich, M.

    Detailed analysis procedures and examples are presented for the probabilistic evaluation of hazard and fragility against high wind, tornado, and tornado-generated missiles. In the tornado hazard analysis, existing risk models are modified to incorporate various uncertainties including modeling errors. A significant feature of this paper is the detailed description of the Monte-Carlo simulation analyses of tornado-generated missiles. A simulation procedure, which includes the wind field modeling, missile injection, solution of flight equations, and missile impact analysis, is described with application examples.

  11. ECOFRAM Terrestrial Draft Report

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    ECOFRAM report describing the concepts for moving from deterministic to probabilistic ecological risk assessments. ECOFRAM included scientific experts from government, academia, contract laboratories, environmental advocacy groups and industry.

  12. Safety Issues with Hydrogen as a Vehicle Fuel

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cadwallader, Lee Charles; Herring, James Stephen

    1999-10-01

    This report is an initial effort to identify and evaluate safety issues associated with the use of hydrogen as a vehicle fuel in automobiles. Several forms of hydrogen have been considered: gas, liquid, slush, and hydrides. The safety issues have been discussed, beginning with properties of hydrogen and the phenomenology of hydrogen combustion. Safety-related operating experiences with hydrogen vehicles have been summarized to identify concerns that must be addressed in future design activities and to support probabilistic risk assessment. Also, applicable codes, standards, and regulations pertaining to hydrogen usage and refueling have been identified and are briefly discussed. This reportmore » serves as a safety foundation for any future hydrogen safety work, such as a safety analysis or a probabilistic risk assessment.« less

  13. Safety Issues with Hydrogen as a Vehicle Fuel

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    L. C. Cadwallader; J. S. Herring

    1999-09-01

    This report is an initial effort to identify and evaluate safety issues associated with the use of hydrogen as a vehicle fuel in automobiles. Several forms of hydrogen have been considered: gas, liquid, slush, and hydrides. The safety issues have been discussed, beginning with properties of hydrogen and the phenomenology of hydrogen combustion. Safety-related operating experiences with hydrogen vehicles have been summarized to identify concerns that must be addressed in future design activities and to support probabilistic risk assessment. Also, applicable codes, standards, and regulations pertaining to hydrogen usage and refueling have been identified and are briefly discussed. This reportmore » serves as a safety foundation for any future hydrogen safety work, such as a safety analysis or a probabilistic risk assessment.« less

  14. Comparative study of stock trend prediction using time delay, recurrent and probabilistic neural networks.

    PubMed

    Saad, E W; Prokhorov, D V; Wunsch, D C

    1998-01-01

    Three networks are compared for low false alarm stock trend predictions. Short-term trends, particularly attractive for neural network analysis, can be used profitably in scenarios such as option trading, but only with significant risk. Therefore, we focus on limiting false alarms, which improves the risk/reward ratio by preventing losses. To predict stock trends, we exploit time delay, recurrent, and probabilistic neural networks (TDNN, RNN, and PNN, respectively), utilizing conjugate gradient and multistream extended Kalman filter training for TDNN and RNN. We also discuss different predictability analysis techniques and perform an analysis of predictability based on a history of daily closing price. Our results indicate that all the networks are feasible, the primary preference being one of convenience.

  15. Enhancing Cost Realism through Risk-Driven Contracting: Designing Incentive Fees Based on Probabilistic Cost Estimates

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-04-01

    Comparison of Management Practices in the Army, Navy, and Air Force 142Defense ARJ, April 2012, Vol. 19 No. 2 : 133–160 It appears the pendulum may be...the cost risk for requiring greater innovation. However, this natural flattening trend also leads to a potential drawback of the risk-driven

  16. Risk Informed Assessment of Regulatory and Design Requirements for Future Nuclear Power Plants - Final Technical Report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ritterbusch, Stanley; Golay, Michael; Duran, Felicia

    2003-01-29

    OAK B188 Summary of methods proposed for risk informing the design and regulation of future nuclear power plants. All elements of the historical design and regulation process are preserved, but the methods proposed for new plants use probabilistic risk assessment methods as the primary decision making tool.

  17. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  18. Improved water allocation utilizing probabilistic climate forecasts: Short-term water contracts in a risk management framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sankarasubramanian, A.; Lall, Upmanu; Souza Filho, Francisco Assis; Sharma, Ashish

    2009-11-01

    Probabilistic, seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts are becoming increasingly available as the ability to model climate teleconnections is improving. However, water managers and practitioners have been slow to adopt such products, citing concerns with forecast skill. Essentially, a management risk is perceived in "gambling" with operations using a probabilistic forecast, while a system failure upon following existing operating policies is "protected" by the official rules or guidebook. In the presence of a prescribed system of prior allocation of releases under different storage or water availability conditions, the manager has little incentive to change. Innovation in allocation and operation is hence key to improved risk management using such forecasts. A participatory water allocation process that can effectively use probabilistic forecasts as part of an adaptive management strategy is introduced here. Users can express their demand for water through statements that cover the quantity needed at a particular reliability, the temporal distribution of the "allocation," the associated willingness to pay, and compensation in the event of contract nonperformance. The water manager then assesses feasible allocations using the probabilistic forecast that try to meet these criteria across all users. An iterative process between users and water manager could be used to formalize a set of short-term contracts that represent the resulting prioritized water allocation strategy over the operating period for which the forecast was issued. These contracts can be used to allocate water each year/season beyond long-term contracts that may have precedence. Thus, integrated supply and demand management can be achieved. In this paper, a single period multiuser optimization model that can support such an allocation process is presented. The application of this conceptual model is explored using data for the Jaguaribe Metropolitan Hydro System in Ceara, Brazil. The performance relative to the current allocation process is assessed in the context of whether such a model could support the proposed short-term contract based participatory process. A synthetic forecasting example is also used to explore the relative roles of forecast skill and reservoir storage in this framework.

  19. A screening level probabilistic ecological risk assessment of PAHs in sediments of San Francisco Bay

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Febbo, E.J.; Arnold, W.R.; Biddinger, G.R.

    1995-12-31

    As part of the Regional Monitoring Program administered by the San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI), sediment samples were collected at 20 stations in San Francisco Bay and analyzed to determine concentrations of 43 PAHs. These data were obtained from SFEI and used to calculate the potential risk to aquatic organisms using probabilistic modeling and Monte Carlo statistical procedures. Sediment chemistry data were used in conjunction with a sediment equilibrium model, a bioconcentration model, biota-sediment accumulation factors, and critical body burden effects concentrations to assess potential risk to bivalves. Bivalves were the chosen receptors because they lack a well-developed enzymatic systemmore » for metabolizing PAHs. Thus, they more readily accumulate PAHs and represent a species at greater risk than other taxa, such as fish and crustaceans. PAHs considered in this study span a broad range of octanol-water partition coefficients. Results indicate that risk of non-polar narcotic effects from PAHs was low in the Northern Bay Area, but higher in the South Bay near the more urbanized sections of the drainage basin.« less

  20. Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

    PubMed

    Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

    2013-06-01

    Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

  1. Anesthesia patient risk: a quantitative approach to organizational factors and risk management options.

    PubMed

    Paté-Cornell, M E; Lakats, L M; Murphy, D M; Gaba, D M

    1997-08-01

    The risk of death or brain damage to anesthesia patients is relatively low, particularly for healthy patients in modern hospitals. When an accident does occur, its cause is usually an error made by the anesthesiologist, either in triggering the accident sequence, or failing to take timely corrective measures. This paper presents a pilot study which explores the feasibility of extending probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of anesthesia accidents to assess the effects of human and management components on the patient risk. We develop first a classic PRA model for the patient risk per operation. We then link the probabilities of the different accident types to their root causes using a probabilistic analysis of the performance shaping factors. These factors are described here as the "state of the anesthesiologist" characterized both in terms of alertness and competence. We then analyze the effects of different management factors that affect the state of the anesthesiologist and we compute the risk reduction benefits of several risk management policies. Our data sources include the published version of the Australian Incident Monitoring Study as well as expert opinions. We conclude that patient risk could be reduced substantially by closer supervision of residents, the use of anesthesia simulators both in training and for periodic recertification, and regular medical examinations for all anesthesiologists.

  2. Optimizing Security of Cloud Computing within the DoD

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    information security governance and risk management; application security; cryptography; security architecture and design; operations security; business ...governance and risk management; application security; cryptography; security architecture and design; operations security; business continuity...20 7. Operational Security (OPSEC).........................................................20 8. Business Continuity Planning (BCP) and Disaster

  3. 6 CFR 27.205 - Determination that a chemical facility “presents a high level of security risk.”

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... a high level of security risk.â 27.205 Section 27.205 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND... Program § 27.205 Determination that a chemical facility “presents a high level of security risk.” (a... a high level of security risk based on any information available (including any information...

  4. Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Best, Lauren M.; Myers, Jerry G.; Goodenow, Debra A.; McRae, Michael P.; Jackson, Travis C.

    2013-01-01

    The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

  5. Verification of recursive probabilistic integration (RPI) method for fatigue life management using non-destructive inspections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Tzikang J.; Shiao, Michael

    2016-04-01

    This paper verified a generic and efficient assessment concept for probabilistic fatigue life management. The concept is developed based on an integration of damage tolerance methodology, simulations methods1, 2, and a probabilistic algorithm RPI (recursive probability integration)3-9 considering maintenance for damage tolerance and risk-based fatigue life management. RPI is an efficient semi-analytical probabilistic method for risk assessment subjected to various uncertainties such as the variability in material properties including crack growth rate, initial flaw size, repair quality, random process modeling of flight loads for failure analysis, and inspection reliability represented by probability of detection (POD). In addition, unlike traditional Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) which requires a rerun of MCS when maintenance plan is changed, RPI can repeatedly use a small set of baseline random crack growth histories excluding maintenance related parameters from a single MCS for various maintenance plans. In order to fully appreciate the RPI method, a verification procedure was performed. In this study, MC simulations in the orders of several hundred billions were conducted for various flight conditions, material properties, and inspection scheduling, POD and repair/replacement strategies. Since the MC simulations are time-consuming methods, the simulations were conducted parallelly on DoD High Performance Computers (HPC) using a specialized random number generator for parallel computing. The study has shown that RPI method is several orders of magnitude more efficient than traditional Monte Carlo simulations.

  6. Developing and Implementing the Data Mining Algorithms in RAVEN

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sen, Ramazan Sonat; Maljovec, Daniel Patrick; Alfonsi, Andrea

    The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty quantification, and verification and validation. The RAVEN code is being developed to support many programs and to provide a set of methodologies and algorithms for advanced analysis. Scientific computer codes can generate enormous amounts of data. To post-process and analyze such data might, in some cases, take longer than the initial software runtime. Data mining algorithms/methods help in recognizing and understanding patterns in the data, and thus discover knowledge in databases. The methodologies used in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or in uncertainty and error quantificationmore » analysis couple system/physics codes with simulation controller codes, such as RAVEN. RAVEN introduces both deterministic and stochastic elements into the simulation while the system/physics code model the dynamics deterministically. A typical analysis is performed by sampling values of a set of parameter values. A major challenge in using dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or uncertainty and error quantification analysis for a complex system is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated. Data mining techniques are typically used to better organize and understand data, i.e. recognizing patterns in the data. This report focuses on development and implementation of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for different data mining algorithms, and the application of these algorithms to different databases.« less

  7. Bayesian Monte Carlo and Maximum Likelihood Approach for Uncertainty Estimation and Risk Management: Application to Lake Oxygen Recovery Model

    EPA Science Inventory

    Model uncertainty estimation and risk assessment is essential to environmental management and informed decision making on pollution mitigation strategies. In this study, we apply a probabilistic methodology, which combines Bayesian Monte Carlo simulation and Maximum Likelihood e...

  8. A systematic risk management approach employed on the CloudSat project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilio, R. R.; Plourde, K. S.; Lam, T.

    2000-01-01

    The CloudSat Project has developed a simplified approach for fault tree analysis and probabilistic risk assessment. A system-level fault tree has been constructed to identify credible fault scenarios and failure modes leading up to a potential failure to meet the nominal mission success criteria.

  9. A PROBABALISTIC ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE ECOLOGICAL RISK DRIVERS, 10TH VOLUME ASTM STP 1403

    EPA Science Inventory

    A probabilistic analysis of exposure and effect data was used to identify chemicals most likely responsible for ecological risk. The mean and standard deviation of the natural log-transformed chemical data were used to estimate the probability of exposure for an area of concern a...

  10. Minimizing risks from spilled oil to ecosystem services using influence diagrams: The Deepwater Horizon spill response

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises may be improved using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence on desired o...

  11. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  12. Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling

    Treesearch

    Matthew P. Thompson; Jessica R. Haas; Mark A. Finney; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand; Mark J. Browne; Martin Halek; Karen C. Short; Isaac C. Grenfell

    2015-01-01

    Wildfire activity and escalating suppression costs continue to threaten the financial health of federal land management agencies. In order to minimize and effectively manage the cost of financial risk, agencies need the ability to quantify that risk. A fundamental aim of this research effort, therefore, is to develop a process for generating risk-based metrics for...

  13. Probalistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Solar Particle Events

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2008-01-01

    For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon or Earth-to-Mars transit. The large majority (90%) of SPEs have small or no health consequences because the doses are low and the particles do not penetrate to organ depths. However, there is an operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration. We have developed a probabilistic approach to SPE risk assessment in support of mission design and operational planning. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, the functional form of hazard function of SPE occurrence per cycle was found for nonhomogeneous Poisson model. A typical hazard function was defined as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile. Organ doses from large SPEs were assessed using NASA's Baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The SPE risk was analyzed with the organ dose distribution for the given particle fluences during a mission period. In addition to the total particle fluences of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30-day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated for various SPE sizes. This probabilistic approach to SPE protection will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks in future work.

  14. 7 CFR 331.7 - Registration and related security risk assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Registration and related security risk assessments... AGENTS AND TOXINS § 331.7 Registration and related security risk assessments. (a) Unless exempted under... be approved by the Administrator or the HHS Secretary based on a security risk assessment by the...

  15. Flood Risk and Asset Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    use by third parties of results or methods presented in this report. The Company also stresses that various sections of this report rely on data...inundation probability  Levee contribution to risk The methods used in FRE have been applied to establish the National Flood Risk in England and...be noted that when undertaking high level probabilistic risk assessments in the UK, if a defence’s condition is unknown, grade 3 is applied with

  16. A Probabilistic Model for Hydrokinetic Turbine Collision Risks: Exploring Impacts on Fish

    PubMed Central

    Hammar, Linus; Eggertsen, Linda; Andersson, Sandra; Ehnberg, Jimmy; Arvidsson, Rickard; Gullström, Martin; Molander, Sverker

    2015-01-01

    A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals. PMID:25730314

  17. Comparing probabilistic microbial risk assessments for drinking water against daily rather than annualised infection probability targets.

    PubMed

    Signor, R S; Ashbolt, N J

    2009-12-01

    Some national drinking water guidelines provide guidance on how to define 'safe' drinking water. Regarding microbial water quality, a common position is that the chance of an individual becoming infected by some reference waterborne pathogen (e.g. Cryptsporidium) present in the drinking water should < 10(-4) in any year. However the instantaneous levels of risk to a water consumer vary over the course of a year, and waterborne disease outbreaks have been associated with shorter-duration periods of heightened risk. Performing probabilistic microbial risk assessments is becoming commonplace to capture the impacts of temporal variability on overall infection risk levels. A case is presented here for adoption of a shorter-duration reference period (i.e. daily) infection probability target over which to assess, report and benchmark such risks. A daily infection probability benchmark may provide added incentive and guidance for exercising control over short-term adverse risk fluctuation events and their causes. Management planning could involve outlining measures so that the daily target is met under a variety of pre-identified event scenarios. Other benefits of a daily target could include providing a platform for managers to design and assess management initiatives, as well as simplifying the technical components of the risk assessment process.

  18. A probabilistic model for hydrokinetic turbine collision risks: exploring impacts on fish.

    PubMed

    Hammar, Linus; Eggertsen, Linda; Andersson, Sandra; Ehnberg, Jimmy; Arvidsson, Rickard; Gullström, Martin; Molander, Sverker

    2015-01-01

    A variety of hydrokinetic turbines are currently under development for power generation in rivers, tidal straits and ocean currents. Because some of these turbines are large, with rapidly moving rotor blades, the risk of collision with aquatic animals has been brought to attention. The behavior and fate of animals that approach such large hydrokinetic turbines have not yet been monitored at any detail. In this paper, we conduct a synthesis of the current knowledge and understanding of hydrokinetic turbine collision risks. The outcome is a generic fault tree based probabilistic model suitable for estimating population-level ecological risks. New video-based data on fish behavior in strong currents are provided and models describing fish avoidance behaviors are presented. The findings indicate low risk for small-sized fish. However, at large turbines (≥5 m), bigger fish seem to have high probability of collision, mostly because rotor detection and avoidance is difficult in low visibility. Risks can therefore be substantial for vulnerable populations of large-sized fish, which thrive in strong currents. The suggested collision risk model can be applied to different turbine designs and at a variety of locations as basis for case-specific risk assessments. The structure of the model facilitates successive model validation, refinement and application to other organism groups such as marine mammals.

  19. Probabalistic Risk Assessment of a Turbine Disk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, Jace A.; Thomas, Michael; Goswami, Tarun; Fecke, Ted

    Current Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) rotor design certification practices risk assessment using a probabilistic framework focused on only the life-limiting defect location of a component. This method generates conservative approximations of the operational risk. The first section of this article covers a discretization method, which allows for a transition from this relative risk to an absolute risk where the component is discretized into regions called zones. General guidelines were established for the zone-refinement process based on the stress gradient topology in order to reach risk convergence. The second section covers a risk assessment method for predicting the total fatigue life due to fatigue induced damage. The total fatigue life incorporates a dual mechanism approach including the crack initiation life and propagation life while simultaneously determining the associated initial flaw sizes. A microstructure-based model was employed to address uncertainties in material response and relate crack initiation life with crack size, while propagation life was characterized large crack growth laws. The two proposed methods were applied to a representative Inconel 718 turbine disk. The zone-based method reduces the conservative approaches, while showing effects of feature-based inspection on the risk assessment. In the fatigue damage assessment, the predicted initial crack distribution was found to be the most sensitive probabilistic parameter and can be used to establish an enhanced inspection planning.

  20. Probabilistic n/γ discrimination with robustness against outliers for use in neutron profile monitors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, Y.; Takada, E.; Fujisaki, A.; Kikuchi, T.; Ogawa, K.; Isobe, M.

    2017-08-01

    A method to stochastically discriminate neutron and γ-ray signals measured with a stilbene organic scintillator is proposed. Each pulse signal was stochastically categorized into two groups: neutron and γ-ray. In previous work, the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was used with the assumption that the measured data followed a Gaussian mixture distribution. It was shown that probabilistic discrimination between these groups is possible. Moreover, by setting the initial parameters for the Gaussian mixture distribution with a k-means algorithm, the possibility of automatic discrimination was demonstrated. In this study, the Student's t-mixture distribution was used as a probabilistic distribution with the EM algorithm to improve the robustness against the effect of outliers caused by pileup of the signals. To validate the proposed method, the figures of merit (FOMs) were compared for the EM algorithm assuming a t-mixture distribution and a Gaussian mixture distribution. The t-mixture distribution resulted in an improvement of the FOMs compared with the Gaussian mixture distribution. The proposed data processing technique is a promising tool not only for neutron and γ-ray discrimination in fusion experiments but also in other fields, for example, homeland security, cancer therapy with high energy particles, nuclear reactor decommissioning, pattern recognition, and so on.

  1. Security Risks: Management and Mitigation in the Software Life Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David P.

    2004-01-01

    A formal approach to managing and mitigating security risks in the software life cycle is requisite to developing software that has a higher degree of assurance that it is free of security defects which pose risk to the computing environment and the organization. Due to its criticality, security should be integrated as a formal approach in the software life cycle. Both a software security checklist and assessment tools should be incorporated into this life cycle process and integrated with a security risk assessment and mitigation tool. The current research at JPL addresses these areas through the development of a Sotfware Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI) and integrating it with a Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) risk management tool.

  2. Outdoor spatial spraying against dengue: A false sense of security among inhabitants of Hermosillo, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Reyes-Castro, Pablo A; Castro-Luque, Lucía; Díaz-Caravantes, Rolando; Walker, Kathleen R; Hayden, Mary H; Ernst, Kacey C

    2017-05-01

    Government-administered adulticiding is frequently conducted in response to dengue transmission worldwide. Anecdotal evidence suggests that spraying may create a "false sense of security" for residents. Our objective was to determine if there was an association between residents' reporting outdoor spatial insecticide spraying as way to prevent dengue transmission and both their reported frequency of dengue prevention practices and household entomological indices in Hermosillo, Mexico. A non-probabilistic survey of 400 households was conducted in August 2014. An oral questionnaire was administered to an adult resident and the outer premises of the home were inspected for water-holding containers and presence of Ae. aegypti larvae and pupae. Self-reported frequency of prevention practices were assessed among residents who reported outdoor spatial spraying as a strategy to prevent dengue (n = 93) and those who did not (n = 307). Mixed effects negative binomial regression was used to assess associations between resident's reporting spraying as a means to prevent dengue and container indices. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to determine associations with presence/absence of larvae and pupae. Those reporting spatial spraying disposed of trash less frequently and spent less time indoors to avoid mosquitoes. They also used insecticides and larvicides more often and covered their water containers more frequently. Their backyards had more containers positive for Ae. aegypti (RR = 1.92) and there was a higher probability of finding one or more Ae. aegypti pupae (OR = 2.20). Survey respondents that reported spatial spraying prevented dengue were more likely to be older and were exposed to fewer media sources regarding prevention. The results suggest that the perception that outdoor spatial spraying prevents dengue is associated with lower adoption of prevention practices and higher entomological risk. This provides some support to the hypothesis that spraying may lead to a "false sense of security". Further investigations to clarify this relationship should be conducted. Government campaigns should emphasize the difficulty in controlling Ae. aegypti mosquitoes and the need for both government and community action to minimize risk of dengue transmission.

  3. Improving organisational resilience through enterprise security risk management.

    PubMed

    Petruzzi, John; Loyear, Rachelle

    Enterprise Security Risk Management (ESRM) is a new philosophy and method of managing security programmes through the use of traditional risk principles. As a philosophy and life cycle, ESRM is focused on creating a business partnership between security practitioners and business leaders to more effectively provide protection against security risks in line with acceptable risk tolerances as defined by business asset owners and stakeholders. This paper explores the basics of the ESRM philosophy and life cycle and also shows how embracing the ESRM philosophy and implementing a risk-based security management model in the business organisation can lead to higher levels of organisational resilience as desired by organisation leaders, executives and the board of directors.

  4. 9 CFR 121.7 - Registration and related security risk assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Registration and related security risk..., USE, AND TRANSFER OF SELECT AGENTS AND TOXINS § 121.7 Registration and related security risk... Administrator or the HHS Secretary based on a security risk assessment by the Attorney General: (i) The...

  5. A preliminary probabilistic analysis of tsunami sources of seismic and non-seismic origin applied to the city of Naples, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonini, R.; Anita, G.

    2011-12-01

    In both worldwide and regional historical catalogues, most of the tsunamis are caused by earthquakes and a minor percentage is represented by all the other non-seismic sources. On the other hand, tsunami hazard and risk studies are often applied to very specific areas, where this global trend can be different or even inverted, depending on the kind of potential tsunamigenic sources which characterize the case study. So far, few probabilistic approaches consider the contribution of landslides and/or phenomena derived by volcanic activity, i.e. pyroclastic flows and flank collapses, as predominant in the PTHA, also because of the difficulties to estimate the correspondent recurrence time. These considerations are valid, for example, for the city of Naples, Italy, which is surrounded by a complex active volcanic system (Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei, Ischia) that presents a significant number of potential tsunami sources of non-seismic origin compared to the seismic ones. In this work we present the preliminary results of a probabilistic multi-source tsunami hazard assessment applied to Naples. The method to estimate the uncertainties will be based on Bayesian inference. This is the first step towards a more comprehensive task which will provide a tsunami risk quantification for this town in the frame of the Italian national project ByMuR (http://bymur.bo.ingv.it). This three years long ongoing project has the final objective of developing a Bayesian multi-risk methodology to quantify the risk related to different natural hazards (volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis) applied to the city of Naples.

  6. Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for the NEAM Region: The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basili, R.; Babeyko, A. Y.; Baptista, M. A.; Ben Abdallah, S.; Canals, M.; El Mouraouah, A.; Harbitz, C. B.; Ibenbrahim, A.; Lastras, G.; Lorito, S.; Løvholt, F.; Matias, L. M.; Omira, R.; Papadopoulos, G. A.; Pekcan, O.; Nmiri, A.; Selva, J.; Yalciner, A. C.

    2016-12-01

    As global awareness of tsunami hazard and risk grows, the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region still lacks a thorough probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project aims to fill this gap in the NEAM region by 1) producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) from earthquake sources, and by 2) triggering a common tsunami risk management strategy. The specific objectives of the project are tackled by the following four consecutive actions: 1) Conduct a state-of-the-art, standardized, and updatable PTHA with full uncertainty treatment; 2) Review the entire process with international experts; 3) Produce the PTHA database, with documentation of the entire hazard assessment process; and 4) Publicize the results through an awareness raising and education phase, and a capacity building phase. This presentation will illustrate the project layout, summarize its current status of advancement and prospective results, and outline its connections with similar initiatives in the international context. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

  7. Probabilistic TSUnami Hazard MAPS for the NEAM Region: The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basili, Roberto; Babeyko, Andrey Y.; Hoechner, Andreas; Baptista, Maria Ana; Ben Abdallah, Samir; Canals, Miquel; El Mouraouah, Azelarab; Bonnevie Harbitz, Carl; Ibenbrahim, Aomar; Lastras, Galderic; Lorito, Stefano; Løvholt, Finn; Matias, Luis Manuel; Omira, Rachid; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A.; Pekcan, Onur; Nmiri, Abdelwaheb; Selva, Jacopo; Yalciner, Ahmet C.; Thio, Hong K.

    2017-04-01

    As global awareness of tsunami hazard and risk grows, the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM) region still lacks a thorough probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project aims to fill this gap in the NEAM region by 1) producing the first region-wide long-term homogenous Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) from earthquake sources, and by 2) triggering a common tsunami risk management strategy. The specific objectives of the project are tackled by the following four consecutive actions: 1) Conduct a state-of-the-art, standardized, and updatable PTHA with full uncertainty treatment; 2) Review the entire process with international experts; 3) Produce the PTHA database, with documentation of the entire hazard assessment process; and 4) Publicize the results through an awareness raising and education phase, and a capacity building phase. This presentation will illustrate the project layout, summarize its current status of advancement including the firs preliminary release of the assessment, and outline its connections with similar initiatives in the international context. The TSUMAPS-NEAM Project (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) is co-financed by the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26.

  8. Bayesian analysis of rare events

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

    2016-06-01

    In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into themore » probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.« less

  9. Extreme Events and Energy Providers: Science and Innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.

    2012-04-01

    Most socio-economic regulations related to the resilience to climate extremes, from infrastructure or network design to insurance premiums, are based on a present-day climate with an assumption of stationarity. Climate extremes (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, storms and wind stilling) affect in particular energy production, supply, demand and security in several ways. While national, European or international projects have generated vast amounts of climate projections for the 21st century, their practical use in long-term planning remains limited. Estimating probabilistic diagnostics of energy user relevant variables from those multi-model projections will help the energy sector to elaborate medium to long-term plans, and will allow the assessment of climate risks associated to those plans. The project "Extreme Events for Energy Providers" (E3P) aims at filling a gap between climate science and its practical use in the energy sector and creating in turn favourable conditions for new business opportunities. The value chain ranges from addressing research questions directly related to energy-significant climate extremes to providing innovative tools of information and decision making (including methodologies, best practices and software) and climate science training for the energy sector, with a focus on extreme events. Those tools will integrate the scientific knowledge that is developed by scientific communities, and translate it into a usable probabilistic framework. The project will deliver projection tools assessing the probabilities of future energy-relevant climate extremes at a range of spatial scales varying from pan-European to local scales. The E3P project is funded by the Knowledge and Innovation Community (KIC Climate). We will present the mechanisms of interactions between academic partners, SMEs and industrial partners for this project. Those mechanisms are elementary bricks of a climate service.

  10. NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, F. R.; Roberts, J. B.

    2014-12-01

    This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

  11. NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, Jason B.

    2014-01-01

    This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

  12. Probabilistic framework for the estimation of the adult and child toxicokinetic intraspecies uncertainty factors.

    PubMed

    Pelekis, Michael; Nicolich, Mark J; Gauthier, Joseph S

    2003-12-01

    Human health risk assessments use point values to develop risk estimates and thus impart a deterministic character to risk, which, by definition, is a probability phenomenon. The risk estimates are calculated based on individuals and then, using uncertainty factors (UFs), are extrapolated to the population that is characterized by variability. Regulatory agencies have recommended the quantification of the impact of variability in risk assessments through the application of probabilistic methods. In the present study, a framework that deals with the quantitative analysis of uncertainty (U) and variability (V) in target tissue dose in the population was developed by applying probabilistic analysis to physiologically-based toxicokinetic models. The mechanistic parameters that determine kinetics were described with probability density functions (PDFs). Since each PDF depicts the frequency of occurrence of all expected values of each parameter in the population, the combined effects of multiple sources of U/V were accounted for in the estimated distribution of tissue dose in the population, and a unified (adult and child) intraspecies toxicokinetic uncertainty factor UFH-TK was determined. The results show that the proposed framework accounts effectively for U/V in population toxicokinetics. The ratio of the 95th percentile to the 50th percentile of the annual average concentration of the chemical at the target tissue organ (i.e., the UFH-TK) varies with age. The ratio is equivalent to a unified intraspecies toxicokinetic UF, and it is one of the UFs by which the NOAEL can be divided to obtain the RfC/RfD. The 10-fold intraspecies UF is intended to account for uncertainty and variability in toxicokinetics (3.2x) and toxicodynamics (3.2x). This article deals exclusively with toxicokinetic component of UF. The framework provides an alternative to the default methodology and is advantageous in that the evaluation of toxicokinetic variability is based on the distribution of the effective target tissue dose, rather than applied dose. It allows for the replacement of the default adult and children intraspecies UF with toxicokinetic data-derived values and provides accurate chemical-specific estimates for their magnitude. It shows that proper application of probability and toxicokinetic theories can reduce uncertainties when establishing exposure limits for specific compounds and provide better assurance that established limits are adequately protective. It contributes to the development of a probabilistic noncancer risk assessment framework and will ultimately lead to the unification of cancer and noncancer risk assessment methodologies.

  13. Integration of Advanced Probabilistic Analysis Techniques with Multi-Physics Models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Cetiner, Mustafa Sacit; none,; Flanagan, George F.

    2014-07-30

    An integrated simulation platform that couples probabilistic analysis-based tools with model-based simulation tools can provide valuable insights for reactive and proactive responses to plant operating conditions. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the benefits of a partial implementation of the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Detailed Framework Specification through the coupling of advanced PRA capabilities and accurate multi-physics plant models. Coupling a probabilistic model with a multi-physics model will aid in design, operations, and safety by providing a more accurate understanding of plant behavior. This represents the first attempt at actually integrating these two typesmore » of analyses for a control system used for operations, on a faster than real-time basis. This report documents the development of the basic communication capability to exchange data with the probabilistic model using Reliability Workbench (RWB) and the multi-physics model using Dymola. The communication pathways from injecting a fault (i.e., failing a component) to the probabilistic and multi-physics models were successfully completed. This first version was tested with prototypic models represented in both RWB and Modelica. First, a simple event tree/fault tree (ET/FT) model was created to develop the software code to implement the communication capabilities between the dynamic-link library (dll) and RWB. A program, written in C#, successfully communicates faults to the probabilistic model through the dll. A systems model of the Advanced Liquid-Metal Reactor–Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module (ALMR-PRISM) design developed under another DOE project was upgraded using Dymola to include proper interfaces to allow data exchange with the control application (ConApp). A program, written in C+, successfully communicates faults to the multi-physics model. The results of the example simulation were successfully plotted.« less

  14. Information risk and security modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zivic, Predrag

    2005-03-01

    This research paper presentation will feature current frameworks to addressing risk and security modeling and metrics. The paper will analyze technical level risk and security metrics of Common Criteria/ISO15408, Centre for Internet Security guidelines, NSA configuration guidelines and metrics used at this level. Information IT operational standards view on security metrics such as GMITS/ISO13335, ITIL/ITMS and architectural guidelines such as ISO7498-2 will be explained. Business process level standards such as ISO17799, COSO and CobiT will be presented with their control approach to security metrics. Top level, the maturity standards such as SSE-CMM/ISO21827, NSA Infosec Assessment and CobiT will be explored and reviewed. For each defined level of security metrics the research presentation will explore the appropriate usage of these standards. The paper will discuss standards approaches to conducting the risk and security metrics. The research findings will demonstrate the need for common baseline for both risk and security metrics. This paper will show the relation between the attribute based common baseline and corporate assets and controls for risk and security metrics. IT will be shown that such approach spans over all mentioned standards. The proposed approach 3D visual presentation and development of the Information Security Model will be analyzed and postulated. Presentation will clearly demonstrate the benefits of proposed attributes based approach and defined risk and security space for modeling and measuring.

  15. PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    DeMott, Diana; Banke, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

  16. Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watkins, T., Jr.; Annis, C. G., Jr.

    1991-01-01

    Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

  17. 75 FR 78777 - Advisory Committee On Reactor Safeguards; Renewal

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-16

    ... Committee includes individuals experienced in reactor operations, management; probabilistic risk assessment...: December 10, 2010. Andrew L. Bates, Advisory Committee Management Officer. [FR Doc. 2010-31590 Filed 12-15...

  18. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran.

    PubMed

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, hospitals in Iran - similar to those in other countries - have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts' opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Information security risk management is not followed by Iran's hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran's Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran.

  19. The Use of BS7799 Information Security Standard to Construct Mechanisms for the Management of Medical Organization Information Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Shu-Fan; Chueh, Hao-En; Liao, Kuo-Hsiung

    According to surveys, 80 % of security related events threatening information in medical organizations is due to improper management. Most research on information security has focused on information and security technology, such as network security and access control; rarely addressing issues at the management issues. The main purpose of this study is to construct a BS7799 based mechanism for the management of information with regard to security as it applies to medical organizations. This study analyzes and identifies the most common events related to information security in medical organizations and categorizes these events as high-risk, transferable-risk, and controlled-risk to facilitate the management of such risk.

  20. Probabilistic stability analysis: the way forward for stability analysis of sustainable power systems.

    PubMed

    Milanović, Jovica V

    2017-08-13

    Future power systems will be significantly different compared with their present states. They will be characterized by an unprecedented mix of a wide range of electricity generation and transmission technologies, as well as responsive and highly flexible demand and storage devices with significant temporal and spatial uncertainty. The importance of probabilistic approaches towards power system stability analysis, as a subsection of power system studies routinely carried out by power system operators, has been highlighted in previous research. However, it may not be feasible (or even possible) to accurately model all of the uncertainties that exist within a power system. This paper describes for the first time an integral approach to probabilistic stability analysis of power systems, including small and large angular stability and frequency stability. It provides guidance for handling uncertainties in power system stability studies and some illustrative examples of the most recent results of probabilistic stability analysis of uncertain power systems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Energy management: flexibility, risk and optimization'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patel, Bhogila M.; Hoge, Peter A.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.

  2. Probabilistic failure assessment with application to solid rocket motors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jan, Darrell L.; Davidson, Barry D.; Moore, Nicholas R.

    1990-01-01

    A quantitative methodology is being developed for assessment of risk of failure of solid rocket motors. This probabilistic methodology employs best available engineering models and available information in a stochastic framework. The framework accounts for incomplete knowledge of governing parameters, intrinsic variability, and failure model specification error. Earlier case studies have been conducted on several failure modes of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. Work in progress on application of this probabilistic approach to large solid rocket boosters such as the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor for the Space Shuttle is described. Failure due to debonding has been selected as the first case study for large solid rocket motors (SRMs) since it accounts for a significant number of historical SRM failures. Impact of incomplete knowledge of governing parameters and failure model specification errors is expected to be important.

  3. Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

    2003-04-01

    Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

  4. Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Luxhoj, J. T.; Ancel, E.; Green, L. L.; Shih, A. T.; Jones, S. M.; Reveley, M. S.

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

  5. Cancer risk from incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs associated with coal-tar-sealed pavement

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, E. Spencer; Mahler, Barbara J.; Van Metre, Peter C.

    2012-01-01

    Recent (2009-10) studies documented significantly higher concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in settled house dust in living spaces and soil adjacent to parking lots sealed with coal-tar-based products. To date, no studies have examined the potential human health effects of PAHs from these products in dust and soil. Here we present the results of an analysis of potential cancer risk associated with incidental ingestion exposures to PAHs in settings near coal-tar-sealed pavement. Exposures to benzo[a]pyrene equivalents were characterized across five scenarios. The central tendency estimate of excess cancer risk resulting from lifetime exposures to soil and dust from nondietary ingestion in these settings exceeded 1 × 10–4, as determined using deterministic and probabilistic methods. Soil was the primary driver of risk, but according to probabilistic calculations, reasonable maximum exposure to affected house dust in the first 6 years of life was sufficient to generate an estimated excess lifetime cancer risk of 6 × 10–5. Our results indicate that the presence of coal-tar-based pavement sealants is associated with significant increases in estimated excess lifetime cancer risk for nearby residents. Much of this calculated excess risk arises from exposures to PAHs in early childhood (i.e., 0–6 years of age).

  6. Probabilistic soil erosion modeling using the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMIT) after wildfires

    Treesearch

    P. R. Robichaud; W. J. Elliot; J. W. Wagenbrenner

    2011-01-01

    The decision of whether or not to apply post-fire hillslope erosion mitigation treatments, and if so, where these treatments are most needed, is a multi-step process. Land managers must assess the risk of damaging runoff and sediment delivery events occurring on the unrecovered burned hillslope. We developed the Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) to address this need...

  7. Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program (SBIR). Volume 2. Navy Projects, Abstracts of Phase 1 Awards from FY 1989 SBIR Solicitation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-04-01

    DECISION AIDS HAVE CREATED A VAST NEW POTENTIAL FOR SUPPORT OF STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL OPERATIONS. THE NON-MONOTONIC PROBABILIST (NMP), DEVELOPED BY...QUALITY OF THE NEW DESIGN WILL BE EVALUATED BY CREATING A VIDEO TAPE USING A VIDEO ANIMATION SYSTEM, AND A SOFTWARE SIMULATION OF THE NEW DESIGN. THE...FAULT TOLERANT, SECURE SHIPBOARD COMMUNICATIONS. THE LAN WILL UTILIZE PHOENIX DIGITAL’S FAULT TOLERANT, " SELF - HEALING " SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH

  8. Governing for Enterprise Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-06-01

    1 2 W hat Is Governing for Enterprise Security? ................................................ 5 3 W hat Are the Risks ...oversight and coordination 2. Areas of responsibility 3. Risk measurement 4. Monitoring and testing 5 . Reporting 6. Acceptable residual risk These...and O pportunities? ............................................... 10 3.1 Enterprise Risk and Enterprise Security Risk

  9. Spatially explicit risk assessment of an estuarine fish in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, following the Deepwater Horizon Oil spill: evaluating tradeoffs in model complexity and parsimony

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecological risk assessments (ERA) move beyond organism-based determinations towards probabilistic population-level assessments, model complexity must be evaluated against the goals of the assessment, the information available to parameterize components with minimal dependence ...

  10. 77 FR 38856 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-29

    ... discussion on defense-in-depth. Specifically, the SRM stated, Because the statements in Regulatory Guide 1... language to assure that the defense-in-depth philosophy is interpreted and implemented consistently. To the extent that other regulatory guidance refers to defense in depth, the relevant documents should be...

  11. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-17

    ... revise the discussion on defense-in-depth. Specifically, the SRM stated, Because the statements in... precise language to assure that the defense-in-depth philosophy is interpreted and implemented consistently. To the extent that other regulatory guidance refers to defense in depth, the relevant documents...

  12. Impaired risk evaluation in people with Internet gaming disorder: fMRI evidence from a probability discounting task.

    PubMed

    Lin, Xiao; Zhou, Hongli; Dong, Guangheng; Du, Xiaoxia

    2015-01-02

    This study examined how Internet gaming disorder (IGD) subjects modulating reward and risk at a neural level under a probability-discounting task with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Behavioral and imaging data were collected from 19 IGD subjects (22.2 ± 3.08 years) and 21 healthy controls (HC, 22.8 ± 3.5 years). Behavior results showed that IGD subjects prefer the probabilistic options to fixed ones and were associated with shorter reaction time, when comparing to HC. The fMRI results revealed that IGD subjects show decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus and the precentral gyrus when choosing the probabilistic options than HC. Correlations were also calculated between behavioral performances and brain activities in relevant brain regions. Both of the behavioral performance and fMRI results indicate that people with IGD show impaired risk evaluation, which might be the reason why IGD subjects continue playing online games despite the risks of widely known negative consequence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. A cooperative model for IS security risk management in distributed environment.

    PubMed

    Feng, Nan; Zheng, Chundong

    2014-01-01

    Given the increasing cooperation between organizations, the flexible exchange of security information across the allied organizations is critical to effectively manage information systems (IS) security in a distributed environment. In this paper, we develop a cooperative model for IS security risk management in a distributed environment. In the proposed model, the exchange of security information among the interconnected IS under distributed environment is supported by Bayesian networks (BNs). In addition, for an organization's IS, a BN is utilized to represent its security environment and dynamically predict its security risk level, by which the security manager can select an optimal action to safeguard the firm's information resources. The actual case studied illustrates the cooperative model presented in this paper and how it can be exploited to manage the distributed IS security risk effectively.

  14. Toward Improving Electrocardiogram (ECG) Biometric Verification using Mobile Sensors: A Two-Stage Classifier Approach

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Robin; Perkowski, Marek

    2017-01-01

    Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals sensed from mobile devices pertain the potential for biometric identity recognition applicable in remote access control systems where enhanced data security is demanding. In this study, we propose a new algorithm that consists of a two-stage classifier combining random forest and wavelet distance measure through a probabilistic threshold schema, to improve the effectiveness and robustness of a biometric recognition system using ECG data acquired from a biosensor integrated into mobile devices. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using a mixed dataset from 184 subjects under different health conditions. The proposed two-stage classifier achieves a total of 99.52% subject verification accuracy, better than the 98.33% accuracy from random forest alone and 96.31% accuracy from wavelet distance measure algorithm alone. These results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm for biometric identification, hence supporting its practicality in areas such as cloud data security, cyber-security or remote healthcare systems. PMID:28230745

  15. Toward Improving Electrocardiogram (ECG) Biometric Verification using Mobile Sensors: A Two-Stage Classifier Approach.

    PubMed

    Tan, Robin; Perkowski, Marek

    2017-02-20

    Electrocardiogram (ECG) signals sensed from mobile devices pertain the potential for biometric identity recognition applicable in remote access control systems where enhanced data security is demanding. In this study, we propose a new algorithm that consists of a two-stage classifier combining random forest and wavelet distance measure through a probabilistic threshold schema, to improve the effectiveness and robustness of a biometric recognition system using ECG data acquired from a biosensor integrated into mobile devices. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using a mixed dataset from 184 subjects under different health conditions. The proposed two-stage classifier achieves a total of 99.52% subject verification accuracy, better than the 98.33% accuracy from random forest alone and 96.31% accuracy from wavelet distance measure algorithm alone. These results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm for biometric identification, hence supporting its practicality in areas such as cloud data security, cyber-security or remote healthcare systems.

  16. Sensitivity to Uncertainty in Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathias, D.; Wheeler, L.; Prabhu, D. K.; Aftosmis, M.; Dotson, J.; Robertson, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center is developing a physics-based impact risk model for probabilistically assessing threats from potential asteroid impacts on Earth. The model integrates probabilistic sampling of asteroid parameter ranges with physics-based analyses of entry, breakup, and impact to estimate damage areas and casualties from various impact scenarios. Assessing these threats is a highly coupled, dynamic problem involving significant uncertainties in the range of expected asteroid characteristics, how those characteristics may affect the level of damage, and the fidelity of various modeling approaches and assumptions. The presented model is used to explore the sensitivity of impact risk estimates to these uncertainties in order to gain insight into what additional data or modeling refinements are most important for producing effective, meaningful risk assessments. In the extreme cases of very small or very large impacts, the results are generally insensitive to many of the characterization and modeling assumptions. However, the nature of the sensitivity can change across moderate-sized impacts. Results will focus on the value of additional information in this critical, mid-size range, and how this additional data can support more robust mitigation decisions.

  17. Modeling and Quantification of Team Performance in Human Reliability Analysis for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jeffrey C. JOe; Ronald L. Boring

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) and Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) are important technical contributors to the United States (U.S.) Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) risk-informed and performance based approach to regulating U.S. commercial nuclear activities. Furthermore, all currently operating commercial NPPs in the U.S. are required by federal regulation to be staffed with crews of operators. Yet, aspects of team performance are underspecified in most HRA methods that are widely used in the nuclear industry. There are a variety of "emergent" team cognition and teamwork errors (e.g., communication errors) that are 1) distinct from individual human errors, and 2) important to understandmore » from a PRA perspective. The lack of robust models or quantification of team performance is an issue that affects the accuracy and validity of HRA methods and models, leading to significant uncertainty in estimating HEPs. This paper describes research that has the objective to model and quantify team dynamics and teamwork within NPP control room crews for risk informed applications, thereby improving the technical basis of HRA, which improves the risk-informed approach the NRC uses to regulate the U.S. commercial nuclear industry.« less

  18. A probabilistic seismic risk assessment procedure for nuclear power plants: (I) Methodology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

    2011-01-01

    A new procedure for probabilistic seismic risk assessment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) is proposed. This procedure modifies the current procedures using tools developed recently for performance-based earthquake engineering of buildings. The proposed procedure uses (a) response-based fragility curves to represent the capacity of structural and nonstructural components of NPPs, (b) nonlinear response-history analysis to characterize the demands on those components, and (c) Monte Carlo simulations to determine the damage state of the components. The use of response-rather than ground-motion-based fragility curves enables the curves to be independent of seismic hazard and closely related to component capacity. The use of Monte Carlo procedure enables the correlation in the responses of components to be directly included in the risk assessment. An example of the methodology is presented in a companion paper to demonstrate its use and provide the technical basis for aspects of the methodology. ?? 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Lowe, Rachel; Coelho, Caio AS; Barcellos, Christovam; Carvalho, Marilia Sá; Catão, Rafael De Castro; Coelho, Giovanini E; Ramalho, Walter Massa; Bailey, Trevor C; Stephenson, David B; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.11285.001 PMID:26910315

  20. Probabilistic risk assessment of the effect of acidified seawater on development stages of sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis).

    PubMed

    Chen, Wei-Yu; Lin, Hsing-Chieh

    2018-05-01

    Growing evidence indicates that ocean acidification has a significant impact on calcifying marine organisms. However, there is a lack of exposure risk assessments for aquatic organisms under future environmentally relevant ocean acidification scenarios. The objective of this study was to investigate the probabilistic effects of acidified seawater on the life-stage response dynamics of fertilization, larvae growth, and larvae mortality of the green sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus droebachiensis). We incorporated the regulation of primary body cavity (PBC) pH in response to seawater pH into the assessment by constructing an explicit model to assess effective life-stage response dynamics to seawater or PBC pH levels. The likelihood of exposure to ocean acidification was also evaluated by addressing the uncertainties of the risk characterization. For unsuccessful fertilization, the estimated 50% effect level of seawater acidification (EC50 SW ) was 0.55 ± 0.014 (mean ± SE) pH units. This life stage was more sensitive than growth inhibition and mortality, for which the EC50 values were 1.13 and 1.03 pH units, respectively. The estimated 50% effect levels of PBC pH (EC50 PBC ) were 0.99 ± 0.05 and 0.88 ± 0.006 pH units for growth inhibition and mortality, respectively. We also predicted the probability distributions for seawater and PBC pH levels in 2100. The level of unsuccessful fertilization had 50 and 90% probability risks of 5.07-24.51 (95% CI) and 0-6.95%, respectively. We conclude that this probabilistic risk analysis model is parsimonious enough to quantify the multiple vulnerabilities of the green sea urchin while addressing the systemic effects of ocean acidification. This study found a high potential risk of acidification affecting the fertilization of the green sea urchin, whereas there was no evidence for adverse effects on growth and mortality resulting from exposure to the predicted acidified environment.

  1. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Lydia L.; Ingegneri, Antonino J.; Djam, Melody

    2006-01-01

    The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor built components.

  2. Developing EHR-driven heart failure risk prediction models using CPXR(Log) with the probabilistic loss function.

    PubMed

    Taslimitehrani, Vahid; Dong, Guozhu; Pereira, Naveen L; Panahiazar, Maryam; Pathak, Jyotishman

    2016-04-01

    Computerized survival prediction in healthcare identifying the risk of disease mortality, helps healthcare providers to effectively manage their patients by providing appropriate treatment options. In this study, we propose to apply a classification algorithm, Contrast Pattern Aided Logistic Regression (CPXR(Log)) with the probabilistic loss function, to develop and validate prognostic risk models to predict 1, 2, and 5year survival in heart failure (HF) using data from electronic health records (EHRs) at Mayo Clinic. The CPXR(Log) constructs a pattern aided logistic regression model defined by several patterns and corresponding local logistic regression models. One of the models generated by CPXR(Log) achieved an AUC and accuracy of 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, and significantly outperformed prognostic models reported in prior studies. Data extracted from EHRs allowed incorporation of patient co-morbidities into our models which helped improve the performance of the CPXR(Log) models (15.9% AUC improvement), although did not improve the accuracy of the models built by other classifiers. We also propose a probabilistic loss function to determine the large error and small error instances. The new loss function used in the algorithm outperforms other functions used in the previous studies by 1% improvement in the AUC. This study revealed that using EHR data to build prediction models can be very challenging using existing classification methods due to the high dimensionality and complexity of EHR data. The risk models developed by CPXR(Log) also reveal that HF is a highly heterogeneous disease, i.e., different subgroups of HF patients require different types of considerations with their diagnosis and treatment. Our risk models provided two valuable insights for application of predictive modeling techniques in biomedicine: Logistic risk models often make systematic prediction errors, and it is prudent to use subgroup based prediction models such as those given by CPXR(Log) when investigating heterogeneous diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Communicating uncertainty in hydrological forecasts: mission impossible?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, Maria-Helena; Mathevet, Thibault; Thielen, Jutta; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    Cascading uncertainty in meteo-hydrological modelling chains for forecasting and integrated flood risk assessment is an essential step to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts. Although the best methodology to quantify the total predictive uncertainty in hydrology is still debated, there is a common agreement that one must avoid uncertainty misrepresentation and miscommunication, as well as misinterpretation of information by users. Several recent studies point out that uncertainty, when properly explained and defined, is no longer unwelcome among emergence response organizations, users of flood risk information and the general public. However, efficient communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts is far from being a resolved issue. This study focuses on the interpretation and communication of uncertain hydrological forecasts based on (uncertain) meteorological forecasts and (uncertain) rainfall-runoff modelling approaches to decision-makers such as operational hydrologists and water managers in charge of flood warning and scenario-based reservoir operation. An overview of the typical flow of uncertainties and risk-based decisions in hydrological forecasting systems is presented. The challenges related to the extraction of meaningful information from probabilistic forecasts and the test of its usefulness in assisting operational flood forecasting are illustrated with the help of two case-studies: 1) a study on the use and communication of probabilistic flood forecasting within the European Flood Alert System; 2) a case-study on the use of probabilistic forecasts by operational forecasters from the hydroelectricity company EDF in France. These examples show that attention must be paid to initiatives that promote or reinforce the active participation of expert forecasters in the forecasting chain. The practice of face-to-face forecast briefings, focusing on sharing how forecasters interpret, describe and perceive the model output forecasted scenarios, is essential. We believe that the efficient communication of uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecasts is not a mission impossible. Questions remaining unanswered in probabilistic hydrological forecasting should not neutralize the goal of such a mission, and the suspense kept should instead act as a catalyst for overcoming the remaining challenges.

  4. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

    PubMed Central

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

  5. Model based verification of the Secure Socket Layer (SSL) Protocol for NASA systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Powell, John D.; Gilliam, David

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tens of thousands of networked computer systems and applications. Software Security vulnerabilities present risks such as lost or corrupted data, information theft, and unavailability of critical systems. These risks represent potentially enormous costs to NASA. The NASA Code Q research initiative 'Reducing Software Security Risk (RSSR) Trough an Integrated Approach' offers formal verification of information technology (IT), through the creation of a Software Security Assessment Instrument (SSAI), to address software security risks.

  6. A Targeted Health Risk Assessment Following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Exposure in Vietnamese-American Shrimp Consumers

    PubMed Central

    Frickel, Scott; Nguyen, Daniel; Bui, Tap; Echsner, Stephen; Simon, Bridget R.; Howard, Jessi L.; Miller, Kent; Wickliffe, Jeffrey K.

    2014-01-01

    Background: The Deepwater Horizon oil spill of 2010 prompted concern about health risks among seafood consumers exposed to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via consumption of contaminated seafood. Objective: The objective of this study was to conduct population-specific probabilistic health risk assessments based on consumption of locally harvested white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus) among Vietnamese Americans in southeast Louisiana. Methods: We conducted a survey of Vietnamese Americans in southeast Louisiana to evaluate shrimp consumption, preparation methods, and body weight among shrimp consumers in the disaster-impacted region. We also collected and chemically analyzed locally harvested white shrimp for 81 individual PAHs. We combined the PAH levels (with accepted reference doses) found in the shrimp with the survey data to conduct Monte Carlo simulations for probabilistic noncancer health risk assessments. We also conducted probabilistic cancer risk assessments using relative potency factors (RPFs) to estimate cancer risks from the intake of PAHs from white shrimp. Results: Monte Carlo simulations were used to generate hazard quotient distributions for noncancer health risks, reported as mean ± SD, for naphthalene (1.8 × 10–4 ± 3.3 × 10–4), fluorene (2.4 × 10–5 ± 3.3 × 10–5), anthracene (3.9 × 10–6 ± 5.4 × 10–6), pyrene (3.2 × 10–5 ± 4.3 × 10–5), and fluoranthene (1.8 × 10–4 ± 3.3 × 10–4). A cancer risk distribution, based on RPF-adjusted PAH intake, was also generated (2.4 × 10–7 ± 3.9 × 10–7). Conclusions: The risk assessment results show no acute health risks or excess cancer risk associated with consumption of shrimp containing the levels of PAHs detected in our study, even among frequent shrimp consumers. Citation: Wilson MJ, Frickel S, Nguyen D, Bui T, Echsner S, Simon BR, Howard JL, Miller K, Wickliffe JK. 2015. A targeted health risk assessment following the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill: polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure in Vietnamese-American shrimp consumers. Environ Health Perspect 123:152–159; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408684 PMID:25333566

  7. A Cooperative Model for IS Security Risk Management in Distributed Environment

    PubMed Central

    Zheng, Chundong

    2014-01-01

    Given the increasing cooperation between organizations, the flexible exchange of security information across the allied organizations is critical to effectively manage information systems (IS) security in a distributed environment. In this paper, we develop a cooperative model for IS security risk management in a distributed environment. In the proposed model, the exchange of security information among the interconnected IS under distributed environment is supported by Bayesian networks (BNs). In addition, for an organization's IS, a BN is utilized to represent its security environment and dynamically predict its security risk level, by which the security manager can select an optimal action to safeguard the firm's information resources. The actual case studied illustrates the cooperative model presented in this paper and how it can be exploited to manage the distributed IS security risk effectively. PMID:24563626

  8. School Security Assessment Programme in Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marrapodi, John

    2007-01-01

    This article describes a successful security risk management programme in Australia. The state-wide programme follows a structured risk management approach focusing on the safety and security of people, information, provision, and assets in the school environment. To assist school principals, a Security Risk Assessment Programme was developed on a…

  9. Probabilistic evaluation of damage potential in earthquake-induced liquefaction in a 3-D soil deposit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halder, A.; Miller, F. J.

    1982-03-01

    A probabilistic model to evaluate the risk of liquefaction at a site and to limit or eliminate damage during earthquake induced liquefaction is proposed. The model is extended to consider three dimensional nonhomogeneous soil properties. The parameters relevant to the liquefaction phenomenon are identified, including: (1) soil parameters; (2) parameters required to consider laboratory test and sampling effects; and (3) loading parameters. The fundamentals of risk based design concepts pertient to liquefaction are reviewed. A detailed statistical evaluation of the soil parameters in the proposed liquefaction model is provided and the uncertainty associated with the estimation of in situ relative density is evaluated for both direct and indirect methods. It is found that the liquefaction potential the uncertainties in the load parameters could be higher than those in the resistance parameters.

  10. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary W.

    2014-01-01

    The International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020, although there are ongoing efforts to extend ISS life cycle through 2028. The EOL for the ISS will require deorbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited therefore safely deorbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  11. Potential Impacts of Accelerated Climate Change

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Leung, L. R.; Vail, L. W.

    2016-05-31

    This research project is part of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research plan in support of developing a risk-informed licensing framework for flood hazards and design standards at proposed new facilities and significance determination tools for evaluating potential deficiencies related to flood protection at operating facilities. The PFHA plan aims to build upon recent advances in deterministic, probabilistic, and statistical modeling of extreme precipitation events to develop regulatory tools and guidance for NRC staff with regard to PFHA for nuclear facilities. The tools and guidance developed under the PFHA plan will support and enhancemore » NRC’s capacity to perform thorough and efficient reviews of license applications and license amendment requests. They will also support risk-informed significance determination of inspection findings, unusual events, and other oversight activities.« less

  12. Probabilistic characterization of wind turbine blades via aeroelasticity and spinning finite element formulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velazquez, Antonio; Swartz, R. Andrew

    2012-04-01

    Wind energy is an increasingly important component of this nation's renewable energy portfolio, however safe and economical wind turbine operation is a critical need to ensure continued adoption. Safe operation of wind turbine structures requires not only information regarding their condition, but their operational environment. Given the difficulty inherent in SHM processes for wind turbines (damage detection, location, and characterization), some uncertainty in conditional assessment is expected. Furthermore, given the stochastic nature of the loading on turbine structures, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize their risk of failure at a given time. Such information will be invaluable to turbine controllers, allowing them to operate the structures within acceptable risk profiles. This study explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the turbine blade structures. A framework is presented to develop an analytical estimation of the loading environment (including loading effects) based on the dynamic behavior of the blades. This is influenced by behaviors including along and across-wind aero-elastic effects, wind shear gradient, tower shadow effects, and centrifugal stiffening effects. The proposed solution includes methods that are based on modal decomposition of the blades and require frequent updates to the estimated modal properties to account for the time-varying nature of the turbine and its environment. The estimated demand statistics are compared to a code-based resistance curve to determine a probabilistic estimate of the risk of blade failure given the loading environment.

  13. Managing information technology security risk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task for the organization to protect against the loss of confidentiality, integrity and availability of IT resources. As systems bgecome more complex and diverse and and attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security risk. This paper describes a two-pronged approach in addressing IT security risk and risk management in the organization: 1) an institutional enterprise appraoch, and 2) a project life cycle approach.

  14. An integrated GIS-based interval-probabilistic programming model for land-use planning management under uncertainty--a case study at Suzhou, China.

    PubMed

    Lu, Shasha; Zhou, Min; Guan, Xingliang; Tao, Lizao

    2015-03-01

    A large number of mathematical models have been developed for supporting optimization of land-use allocation; however, few of them simultaneously consider land suitability (e.g., physical features and spatial information) and various uncertainties existing in many factors (e.g., land availabilities, land demands, land-use patterns, and ecological requirements). This paper incorporates geographic information system (GIS) technology into interval-probabilistic programming (IPP) for land-use planning management (IPP-LUPM). GIS is utilized to assemble data for the aggregated land-use alternatives, and IPP is developed for tackling uncertainties presented as discrete intervals and probability distribution. Based on GIS, the suitability maps of different land users are provided by the outcomes of land suitability assessment and spatial analysis. The maximum area of every type of land use obtained from the suitability maps, as well as various objectives/constraints (i.e., land supply, land demand of socioeconomic development, future development strategies, and environmental capacity), is used as input data for the optimization of land-use areas with IPP-LUPM model. The proposed model not only considers the outcomes of land suitability evaluation (i.e., topography, ground conditions, hydrology, and spatial location) but also involves economic factors, food security, and eco-environmental constraints, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in a land-use planning management system. The case study results at Suzhou, China, demonstrate that the model can help to examine the reliability of satisfying (or risk of violating) system constraints under uncertainty. Moreover, it may identify the quantitative relationship between land suitability and system benefits. Willingness to arrange the land areas based on the condition of highly suitable land will not only reduce the potential conflicts on the environmental system but also lead to a lower economic benefit. However, a strong desire to develop lower suitable land areas will bring not only a higher economic benefit but also higher risks of violating environmental and ecological constraints. The land manager should make decisions through trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental/ecological objectives.

  15. Multimodal integration of micro-Doppler sonar and auditory signals for behavior classification with convolutional networks.

    PubMed

    Dura-Bernal, Salvador; Garreau, Guillaume; Georgiou, Julius; Andreou, Andreas G; Denham, Susan L; Wennekers, Thomas

    2013-10-01

    The ability to recognize the behavior of individuals is of great interest in the general field of safety (e.g. building security, crowd control, transport analysis, independent living for the elderly). Here we report a new real-time acoustic system for human action and behavior recognition that integrates passive audio and active micro-Doppler sonar signatures over multiple time scales. The system architecture is based on a six-layer convolutional neural network, trained and evaluated using a dataset of 10 subjects performing seven different behaviors. Probabilistic combination of system output through time for each modality separately yields 94% (passive audio) and 91% (micro-Doppler sonar) correct behavior classification; probabilistic multimodal integration increases classification performance to 98%. This study supports the efficacy of micro-Doppler sonar systems in characterizing human actions, which can then be efficiently classified using ConvNets. It also demonstrates that the integration of multiple sources of acoustic information can significantly improve the system's performance.

  16. Robust infrared targets tracking with covariance matrix representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Jian

    2009-07-01

    Robust infrared target tracking is an important and challenging research topic in many military and security applications, such as infrared imaging guidance, infrared reconnaissance, scene surveillance, etc. To effectively tackle the nonlinear and non-Gaussian state estimation problems, particle filtering is introduced to construct the theory framework of infrared target tracking. Under this framework, the observation probabilistic model is one of main factors for infrared targets tracking performance. In order to improve the tracking performance, covariance matrices are introduced to represent infrared targets with the multi-features. The observation probabilistic model can be constructed by computing the distance between the reference target's and the target samples' covariance matrix. Because the covariance matrix provides a natural tool for integrating multiple features, and is scale and illumination independent, target representation with covariance matrices can hold strong discriminating ability and robustness. Two experimental results demonstrate the proposed method is effective and robust for different infrared target tracking, such as the sensor ego-motion scene, and the sea-clutter scene.

  17. The Importance of Human Reliability Analysis in Human Space Flight: Understanding the Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamlin, Teri L.

    2010-01-01

    HRA is a method used to describe, qualitatively and quantitatively, the occurrence of human failures in the operation of complex systems that affect availability and reliability. Modeling human actions with their corresponding failure in a PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) provides a more complete picture of the risk and risk contributions. A high quality HRA can provide valuable information on potential areas for improvement, including training, procedural, equipment design and need for automation.

  18. Combining exposure and effect modeling into an integrated probabilistic environmental risk assessment for nanoparticles.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Rianne; Meesters, Johannes A J; Ter Braak, Cajo J F; van de Meent, Dik; van der Voet, Hilko

    2016-12-01

    There is a growing need for good environmental risk assessment of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs). Environmental risk assessment of ENPs has been hampered by lack of data and knowledge about ENPs, their environmental fate, and their toxicity. This leads to uncertainty in the risk assessment. To deal with uncertainty in the risk assessment effectively, probabilistic methods are advantageous. In the present study, the authors developed a method to model both the variability and the uncertainty in environmental risk assessment of ENPs. This method is based on the concentration ratio and the ratio of the exposure concentration to the critical effect concentration, both considered to be random. In this method, variability and uncertainty are modeled separately so as to allow the user to see which part of the total variation in the concentration ratio is attributable to uncertainty and which part is attributable to variability. The authors illustrate the use of the method with a simplified aquatic risk assessment of nano-titanium dioxide. The authors' method allows a more transparent risk assessment and can also direct further environmental and toxicological research to the areas in which it is most needed. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2958-2967. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. © 2016 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC.

  19. Subsea release of oil from a riser: an ecological risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Nazir, Muddassir; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul; Sadiq, Rehan

    2008-10-01

    This study illustrates a newly developed methodology, as a part of the U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework, to predict exposure concentrations in a marine environment due to underwater release of oil and gas. It combines the hydrodynamics of underwater blowout, weathering algorithms, and multimedia fate and transport to measure the exposure concentration. Naphthalene and methane are used as surrogate compounds for oil and gas, respectively. Uncertainties are accounted for in multimedia input parameters in the analysis. The 95th percentile of the exposure concentration (EC(95%)) is taken as the representative exposure concentration for the risk estimation. A bootstrapping method is utilized to characterize EC(95%) and associated uncertainty. The toxicity data of 19 species available in the literature are used to calculate the 5th percentile of the predicted no observed effect concentration (PNEC(5%)) by employing the bootstrapping method. The risk is characterized by transforming the risk quotient (RQ), which is the ratio of EC(95%) to PNEC(5%), into a cumulative risk distribution. This article describes a probabilistic basis for the ERA, which is essential from risk management and decision-making viewpoints. Two case studies of underwater oil and gas mixture release, and oil release with no gaseous mixture are used to show the systematic implementation of the methodology, elements of ERA, and the probabilistic method in assessing and characterizing the risk.

  20. Environmental risk assessment of white phosphorus from the use of munitions - a probabilistic approach.

    PubMed

    Voie, Øyvind Albert; Johnsen, Arnt; Strømseng, Arnljot; Longva, Kjetil Sager

    2010-03-15

    White phosphorus (P(4)) is a highly toxic compound used in various pyrotechnic products. Ammunitions containing P(4) are widely used in military training areas where the unburned products of P(4) contaminate soil and local ponds. Traditional risk assessment methods presuppose a homogeneous spatial distribution of pollutants. The distribution of P(4) in military training areas is heterogeneous, which reduces the probability of potential receptors being exposed to the P(4) by ingestion, for example. The current approach to assess the environmental risk from the use of P(4) suggests a Bayesian network (Bn) as a risk assessment tool. The probabilistic reasoning supported by a Bn allows us to take into account the heterogeneous distribution of P(4). Furthermore, one can combine empirical data and expert knowledge, which allows the inclusion of all kinds of data that are relevant to the problem. The current work includes an example of the use of the Bn as a risk assessment tool where the risk for P(4) poisoning in humans and grazing animals at a military shooting range in Northern Norway was calculated. P(4) was detected in several craters on the range at concentrations up to 5.7g/kg. The risk to human health was considered acceptable under the current land use. The risk for grazing animals such as sheep, however, was higher, suggesting that precautionary measures may be advisable.

  1. Environmental risk assessment of engineered nano-SiO2 , nano iron oxides, nano-CeO2 , nano-Al2 O3 , and quantum dots.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yan; Nowack, Bernd

    2018-05-01

    Many research studies have endeavored to investigate the ecotoxicological hazards of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs). However, little is known regarding the actual environmental risks of ENMs, combining both hazard and exposure data. The aim of the present study was to quantify the environmental risks for nano-Al 2 O 3 , nano-SiO 2 , nano iron oxides, nano-CeO 2 , and quantum dots by comparing the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) with the predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs). The PEC values of these 5 ENMs in freshwaters in 2020 for northern Europe and southeastern Europe were taken from a published dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis model. The PNEC values were calculated using probabilistic species sensitivity distribution (SSD). The order of the PNEC values was quantum dots < nano-CeO 2  < nano iron oxides < nano-Al 2 O 3  < nano-SiO 2 . The risks posed by these 5 ENMs were demonstrated to be in the reverse order: nano-Al 2 O 3  > nano-SiO 2  > nano iron oxides > nano-CeO 2  > quantum dots. However, all risk characterization values are 4 to 8 orders of magnitude lower than 1, and no risk was therefore predicted for any of the investigated ENMs at the estimated release level in 2020. Compared to static models, the dynamic material flow model allowed us to use PEC values based on a more complex parameterization, considering a dynamic input over time and time-dependent release of ENMs. The probabilistic SSD approach makes it possible to include all available data to estimate hazards of ENMs by considering the whole range of variability between studies and material types. The risk-assessment approach is therefore able to handle the uncertainty and variability associated with the collected data. The results of the present study provide a scientific foundation for risk-based regulatory decisions of the investigated ENMs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1387-1395. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

  2. A probabilistic method for streamflow projection and associated uncertainty analysis in a data sparse alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Weiwei; Yang, Tao; Shi, Pengfei; Xu, Chong-yu; Zhang, Ke; Zhou, Xudong; Shao, Quanxi; Ciais, Philippe

    2018-06-01

    Climate change imposes profound influence on regional hydrological cycle and water security in many alpine regions worldwide. Investigating regional climate impacts using watershed scale hydrological models requires a large number of input data such as topography, meteorological and hydrological data. However, data scarcity in alpine regions seriously restricts evaluation of climate change impacts on water cycle using conventional approaches based on global or regional climate models, statistical downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, this study is dedicated to development of a probabilistic model to replace the conventional approaches for streamflow projection. The probabilistic model was built upon an advanced Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach directly fed by the large-scale climate predictor variables and tested in a typical data sparse alpine region, the Kaidu River basin in Central Asia. Results show that BNN model performs better than the general methods across a number of statistical measures. The BNN method with flexible model structures by active indicator functions, which reduce the dependence on the initial specification for the input variables and the number of hidden units, can work well in a data limited region. Moreover, it can provide more reliable streamflow projections with a robust generalization ability. Forced by the latest bias-corrected GCM scenarios, streamflow projections for the 21st century under three RCP emission pathways were constructed and analyzed. Briefly, the proposed probabilistic projection approach could improve runoff predictive ability over conventional methods and provide better support to water resources planning and management under data limited conditions as well as enable a facilitated climate change impact analysis on runoff and water resources in alpine regions worldwide.

  3. 6 CFR 27.200 - Information regarding security risk for a chemical facility.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Information regarding security risk for a chemical facility. 27.200 Section 27.200 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.200 Information...

  4. Food Security and Cardiovascular Disease Risk Among Adults in the United States: Findings From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003–2008

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Little is known about the relationship between food security status and predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. The objective of this study was to examine the associations between food security status and cardiovascular disease risk factors and predicted 10-year risk in a national sample of US adults. Methods A cross-sectional analysis using data from 10,455 adults aged 20 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003–2008 was conducted. Four levels of food security status were defined by using 10 questions. Results Among all participants, 83.9% had full food security, 6.7% had marginal food security, 5.8% had low food security, and 3.6% had very low food security. After adjustment, mean hemoglobin A1c was 0.15% greater and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was 0.8 mg/L greater among participants with very low food security than among those with full food security. The adjusted mean concentration of cotinine among participants with very low food security was almost double that of participants with full food security (112.8 vs 62.0 ng/mL, P < .001). No significant associations between food security status and systolic blood pressure or concentrations of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. Participants aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security were more likely to have a predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk greater than 20% than fully food secure participants (adjusted prevalence ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.31–4.31). Conclusion Adults aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security showed evidence of increased predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. PMID:24309090

  5. Food security and cardiovascular disease risk among adults in the United States: findings from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2003-2008.

    PubMed

    Ford, Earl S

    2013-12-05

    Little is known about the relationship between food security status and predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk. The objective of this study was to examine the associations between food security status and cardiovascular disease risk factors and predicted 10-year risk in a national sample of US adults. A cross-sectional analysis using data from 10,455 adults aged 20 years or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003-2008 was conducted. Four levels of food security status were defined by using 10 questions. Among all participants, 83.9% had full food security, 6.7% had marginal food security, 5.8% had low food security, and 3.6% had very low food security. After adjustment, mean hemoglobin A1c was 0.15% greater and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was 0.8 mg/L greater among participants with very low food security than among those with full food security. The adjusted mean concentration of cotinine among participants with very low food security was almost double that of participants with full food security (112.8 vs 62.0 ng/mL, P < .001). No significant associations between food security status and systolic blood pressure or concentrations of total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. Participants aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security were more likely to have a predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk greater than 20% than fully food secure participants (adjusted prevalence ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.31-4.31). Adults aged 30 to 59 years with very low food security showed evidence of increased predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk.

  6. Family cumulative risk and at-risk kindergarteners' social competence: the mediating role of parent representations of the attachment relationship.

    PubMed

    Sparks, Lauren A; Trentacosta, Christopher J; Owusu, Erika; McLear, Caitlin; Smith-Darden, Joanne

    2018-08-01

    Secure attachment relationships have been linked to social competence in at-risk children. In the current study, we examined the role of parent secure base scripts in predicting at-risk kindergarteners' social competence. Parent representations of secure attachment were hypothesized to mediate the relationship between lower family cumulative risk and children's social competence. Participants included 106 kindergarteners and their primary caregivers recruited from three urban charter schools serving low-income families as a part of a longitudinal study. Lower levels of cumulative risk predicted greater secure attachment representations in parents, and scores on the secure base script assessment predicted children's social competence. An indirect relationship between lower cumulative risk and kindergarteners' social competence via parent secure base script scores was also supported. Parent script-based representations of the attachment relationship appear to be an important link between lower levels of cumulative risk and low-income kindergarteners' social competence. Implications of these findings for future interventions are discussed.

  7. APPLICATION AND EVALUATION OF AN AGGREGATE PHYSICALLY-BASED TWO-STAGE MONTE CARLO PROBABILISTIC MODEL FOR QUANTIFYING CHILDREN'S RESIDENTIAL EXPOSURE AND DOSE TO CHLORPYRIFOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Critical voids in exposure data and models lead risk assessors to rely on conservative assumptions. Risk assessors and managers need improved tools beyond the screening level analysis to address aggregate exposures to pesticides as required by the Food Quality Protection Act o...

  8. 77 FR 58590 - Determining Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Risk-Informed License...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-21

    ... reactors or for activities associated with review of applications for early site permits and combined licenses (COL) for the Office of New Reactors (NRO). DATES: The effective date of this SRP update is... Rulemaking Web Site: Go to http://www.regulations.gov and search for Docket ID NRC-2010-0138. Address...

  9. Validation of a probabilistic post-fire erosion model

    Treesearch

    Pete Robichaud; William J. Elliot; Sarah A. Lewis; Mary Ellen Miller

    2016-01-01

    Post-fire increases of runoff and erosion often occur and land managers need tools to be able to project the increased risk. The Erosion Risk Management Tool (ERMiT) uses the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model as the underlying processor. ERMiT predicts the probability of a given amount of hillslope sediment delivery from a single rainfall or...

  10. Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-01-01

    Background Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning — the “jumping to conclusion” bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). Methods We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. Results We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Limitations Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not pre-psychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. Conclusion As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk. PMID:25622039

  11. Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state.

    PubMed

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-05-01

    Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning - the "jumping to conclusion" bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not prepsychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk.

  12. Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilliam, David P.; Feather, Martin S.

    2004-01-01

    Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

  13. Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment - How They Play Together

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Stutts, Richard; Huang, Zhaofeng

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this presentation is to discuss the PRA process and the reliability engineering discipline, their differences and similarities, and how they are used as complimentary analyses to support design and flight decisions.

  14. Video calls from lay bystanders to dispatch centers - risk assessment of information security.

    PubMed

    Bolle, Stein R; Hasvold, Per; Henriksen, Eva

    2011-09-30

    Video calls from mobile phones can improve communication during medical emergencies. Lay bystanders can be instructed and supervised by health professionals at Emergency Medical Communication Centers. Before implementation of video mobile calls in emergencies, issues of information security should be addressed. Information security was assessed for risk, based on the information security standard ISO/IEC 27005:2008. A multi-professional team used structured brainstorming to find threats to the information security aspects confidentiality, quality, integrity, and availability. Twenty security threats of different risk levels were identified and analyzed. Solutions were proposed to reduce the risk level. Given proper implementation, we found no risks to information security that would advocate against the use of video calls between lay bystanders and Emergency Medical Communication Centers. The identified threats should be used as input to formal requirements when planning and implementing video calls from mobile phones for these call centers.

  15. Video calls from lay bystanders to dispatch centers - risk assessment of information security

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Video calls from mobile phones can improve communication during medical emergencies. Lay bystanders can be instructed and supervised by health professionals at Emergency Medical Communication Centers. Before implementation of video mobile calls in emergencies, issues of information security should be addressed. Methods Information security was assessed for risk, based on the information security standard ISO/IEC 27005:2008. A multi-professional team used structured brainstorming to find threats to the information security aspects confidentiality, quality, integrity, and availability. Results Twenty security threats of different risk levels were identified and analyzed. Solutions were proposed to reduce the risk level. Conclusions Given proper implementation, we found no risks to information security that would advocate against the use of video calls between lay bystanders and Emergency Medical Communication Centers. The identified threats should be used as input to formal requirements when planning and implementing video calls from mobile phones for these call centers. PMID:21958387

  16. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach

    PubMed Central

    Dall'Osso, F.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Moore, C.; Summerhayes, S.; Withycombe, G.

    2014-01-01

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. PMID:25492514

  18. The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

    PubMed

    Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

    2014-12-10

    Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

  19. Assessment of uncertainty in discrete fracture network modeling using probabilistic distribution method.

    PubMed

    Wei, Yaqiang; Dong, Yanhui; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J; Li, Xiao; Wang, Liheng; Zha, Yuanyuan

    2017-11-01

    There have been widespread concerns about solute transport problems in fractured media, e.g. the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geological fractured rocks. Numerical simulation of particle tracking is gradually being employed to address these issues. Traditional predictions of radioactive waste transport using discrete fracture network (DFN) models often consider one particular realization of the fracture distribution based on fracture statistic features. This significantly underestimates the uncertainty of the risk of radioactive waste deposit evaluation. To adequately assess the uncertainty during the DFN modeling in a potential site for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, this paper utilized the probabilistic distribution method (PDM). The method was applied to evaluate the risk of nuclear waste deposit in Beishan, China. Moreover, the impact of the number of realizations on the simulation results was analyzed. In particular, the differences between the modeling results of one realization and multiple realizations were demonstrated. Probabilistic distributions of 20 realizations at different times were also obtained. The results showed that the employed PDM can be used to describe the ranges of the contaminant particle transport. The high-possibility contaminated areas near the release point were more concentrated than the farther areas after 5E6 days, which was 25,400 m 2 .

  20. Assessment of flood susceptible areas using spatially explicit, probabilistic multi-criteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Zhongqian; Zhang, Hua; Yi, Shanzhen; Xiao, Yangfan

    2018-03-01

    GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support flood risk assessment. However, conventional GIS-MCDA methods fail to adequately represent spatial variability and are accompanied with considerable uncertainty. It is, thus, important to incorporate spatial variability and uncertainty into GIS-based decision analysis procedures. This research develops a spatially explicit, probabilistic GIS-MCDA approach for the delineation of potentially flood susceptible areas. The approach integrates the probabilistic and the local ordered weighted averaging (OWA) methods via Monte Carlo simulation, to take into account the uncertainty related to criteria weights, spatial heterogeneity of preferences and the risk attitude of the analyst. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the Gucheng County, central China, heavily affected by the hazardous 2012 flood. A GIS database of six geomorphological and hydrometeorological factors for the evaluation of susceptibility was created. Moreover, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed to investigate the robustness of the model. The results indicate that the ensemble method improves the robustness of the model outcomes with respect to variation in criteria weights and identifies which criteria weights are most responsible for the variability of model outcomes. Therefore, the proposed approach is an improvement over the conventional deterministic method and can provides a more rational, objective and unbiased tool for flood susceptibility evaluation.

  1. Hybrid cryptosystem implementation using fast data encipherment algorithm (FEAL) and goldwasser-micali algorithm for file security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rachmawati, D.; Budiman, M. A.; Siburian, W. S. E.

    2018-05-01

    On the process of exchanging files, security is indispensable to avoid the theft of data. Cryptography is one of the sciences used to secure the data by way of encoding. Fast Data Encipherment Algorithm (FEAL) is a block cipher symmetric cryptographic algorithms. Therefore, the file which wants to protect is encrypted and decrypted using the algorithm FEAL. To optimize the security of the data, session key that is utilized in the algorithm FEAL encoded with the Goldwasser-Micali algorithm, which is an asymmetric cryptographic algorithm and using probabilistic concept. In the encryption process, the key was converted into binary form. The selection of values of x that randomly causes the results of the cipher key is different for each binary value. The concept of symmetry and asymmetry algorithm merger called Hybrid Cryptosystem. The use of the algorithm FEAL and Goldwasser-Micali can restore the message to its original form and the algorithm FEAL time required for encryption and decryption is directly proportional to the length of the message. However, on Goldwasser- Micali algorithm, the length of the message is not directly proportional to the time of encryption and decryption.

  2. A secure 3-way routing protocols for intermittently connected mobile ad hoc networks.

    PubMed

    Sekaran, Ramesh; Parasuraman, Ganesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The mobile ad hoc network may be partially connected or it may be disconnected in nature and these forms of networks are termed intermittently connected mobile ad hoc network (ICMANET). The routing in such disconnected network is commonly an arduous task. Many routing protocols have been proposed for routing in ICMANET since decades. The routing techniques in existence for ICMANET are, namely, flooding, epidemic, probabilistic, copy case, spray and wait, and so forth. These techniques achieve an effective routing with minimum latency, higher delivery ratio, lesser overhead, and so forth. Though these techniques generate effective results, in this paper, we propose novel routing algorithms grounded on agent and cryptographic techniques, namely, location dissemination service (LoDiS) routing with agent AES, A-LoDiS with agent AES routing, and B-LoDiS with agent AES routing, ensuring optimal results with respect to various network routing parameters. The algorithm along with efficient routing ensures higher degree of security. The security level is cited testing with respect to possibility of malicious nodes into the network. This paper also aids, with the comparative results of proposed algorithms, for secure routing in ICMANET.

  3. A Secure 3-Way Routing Protocols for Intermittently Connected Mobile Ad Hoc Networks

    PubMed Central

    Parasuraman, Ganesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    The mobile ad hoc network may be partially connected or it may be disconnected in nature and these forms of networks are termed intermittently connected mobile ad hoc network (ICMANET). The routing in such disconnected network is commonly an arduous task. Many routing protocols have been proposed for routing in ICMANET since decades. The routing techniques in existence for ICMANET are, namely, flooding, epidemic, probabilistic, copy case, spray and wait, and so forth. These techniques achieve an effective routing with minimum latency, higher delivery ratio, lesser overhead, and so forth. Though these techniques generate effective results, in this paper, we propose novel routing algorithms grounded on agent and cryptographic techniques, namely, location dissemination service (LoDiS) routing with agent AES, A-LoDiS with agent AES routing, and B-LoDiS with agent AES routing, ensuring optimal results with respect to various network routing parameters. The algorithm along with efficient routing ensures higher degree of security. The security level is cited testing with respect to possibility of malicious nodes into the network. This paper also aids, with the comparative results of proposed algorithms, for secure routing in ICMANET. PMID:25136697

  4. Methodology to identify risk-significant components for inservice inspection and testing

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Anderson, M.T.; Hartley, R.S.; Jones, J.L. Jr.

    1992-08-01

    Periodic inspection and testing of vital system components should be performed to ensure the safe and reliable operation of Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear processing facilities. Probabilistic techniques may be used to help identify and rank components by their relative risk. A risk-based ranking would allow varied DOE sites to implement inspection and testing programs in an effective and cost-efficient manner. This report describes a methodology that can be used to rank components, while addressing multiple risk issues.

  5. Transient flow conditions in probabilistic wellhead protection: importance and ways to manage spatial and temporal uncertainty in capture zone delineation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Enzenhoefer, R.; Rodriguez-Pretelin, A.; Nowak, W.

    2012-12-01

    "From an engineering standpoint, the quantification of uncertainty is extremely important not only because it allows estimating risk but mostly because it allows taking optimal decisions in an uncertain framework" (Renard, 2007). The most common way to account for uncertainty in the field of subsurface hydrology and wellhead protection is to randomize spatial parameters, e.g. the log-hydraulic conductivity or porosity. This enables water managers to take robust decisions in delineating wellhead protection zones with rationally chosen safety margins in the spirit of probabilistic risk management. Probabilistic wellhead protection zones are commonly based on steady-state flow fields. However, several past studies showed that transient flow conditions may substantially influence the shape and extent of catchments. Therefore, we believe they should be accounted for in the probabilistic assessment and in the delineation process. The aim of our work is to show the significance of flow transients and to investigate the interplay between spatial uncertainty and flow transients in wellhead protection zone delineation. To this end, we advance our concept of probabilistic capture zone delineation (Enzenhoefer et al., 2012) that works with capture probabilities and other probabilistic criteria for delineation. The extended framework is able to evaluate the time fraction that any point on a map falls within a capture zone. In short, we separate capture probabilities into spatial/statistical and time-related frequencies. This will provide water managers additional information on how to manage a well catchment in the light of possible hazard conditions close to the capture boundary under uncertain and time-variable flow conditions. In order to save computational costs, we take advantage of super-positioned flow components with time-variable coefficients. We assume an instantaneous development of steady-state flow conditions after each temporal change in driving forces, following an idea by Festger and Walter, 2002. These quasi steady-state flow fields are cast into a geostatistical Monte Carlo framework to admit and evaluate the influence of parameter uncertainty on the delineation process. Furthermore, this framework enables conditioning on observed data with any conditioning scheme, such as rejection sampling, Ensemble Kalman Filters, etc. To further reduce the computational load, we use the reverse formulation of advective-dispersive transport. We simulate the reverse transport by particle tracking random walk in order to avoid numerical dispersion to account for well arrival times.

  6. School Security and Crisis Preparedness: Make It Your Business.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trump, Kenneth S.

    1999-01-01

    The top five security risks in today's schools include aggressive behavior, weapons possession or use, drug trafficking, gangs, and "stranger danger." Home-made bomb threats are common. This article also discusses security system costs, risk-reduction frameworks, security assessments, crisis-preparedness guidelines, and security-related…

  7. 6 CFR 27.205 - Determination that a chemical facility “presents a high level of security risk.”

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determination that a chemical facility âpresents a high level of security risk.â 27.205 Section 27.205 Domestic Security DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY, OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security...

  8. Time-varying loss forecast for an earthquake scenario in Basel, Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrmann, Marcus; Zechar, Jeremy D.; Wiemer, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    When an unexpected earthquake occurs, people suddenly want advice on how to cope with the situation. The 2009 L'Aquila quake highlighted the significance of public communication and pushed the usage of scientific methods to drive alternative risk mitigation strategies. For instance, van Stiphout et al. (2010) suggested a new approach for objective evacuation decisions on short-term: probabilistic risk forecasting combined with cost-benefit analysis. In the present work, we apply this approach to an earthquake sequence that simulated a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, one of the most damaging events in Central Europe. A recent development to benefit society in case of an earthquake are probabilistic forecasts of the aftershock occurrence. But seismic risk delivers a more direct expression of the socio-economic impact. To forecast the seismic risk on short-term, we translate aftershock probabilities to time-varying seismic hazard and combine this with time-invariant loss estimation. Compared with van Stiphout et al. (2010), we use an advanced aftershock forecasting model and detailed settlement data to allow us spatial forecasts and settlement-specific decision-making. We quantify the risk forecast probabilistically in terms of human loss. For instance one minute after the M6.6 mainshock, the probability for an individual to die within the next 24 hours is 41 000 times higher than the long-term average; but the absolute value remains at minor 0.04 %. The final cost-benefit analysis adds value beyond a pure statistical approach: it provides objective statements that may justify evacuations. To deliver supportive information in a simple form, we propose a warning approach in terms of alarm levels. Our results do not justify evacuations prior to the M6.6 mainshock, but in certain districts afterwards. The ability to forecast the short-term seismic risk at any time-and with sufficient data anywhere-is the first step of personal decision-making and raising risk awareness among the public. Reference Van Stiphout, T., S. Wiemer, and W. Marzocchi (2010). 'Are short-term evacuations warranted? Case of the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake'. In: Geophysical Research Letters 37.6, pp. 1-5. url: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/ 2009GL042352/abstract.

  9. Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, Francs A.

    2008-01-01

    Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

  10. Improvement of One Quantum Encryption Scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Zhengjun; Liu, Lihua

    2012-01-01

    Zhou et al. proposed a quantum encryption scheme based on quantum computation in 2006 [N. Zhou et al., Physica A362 (2006) 305]. Each qubit of the ciphertext is constrained to two pairs of conjugate states. So, its implementation is feasible with the existing technology. But it is inefficient since it entails six key bits to encrypt one message bit, and the resulting ciphertext for one message bit consists of three qubits. In addition, its security cannot be directly reduced to the well-known BB84 protocol. In this paper, we improve it using the technique developed in BB84 protocol. The new scheme entails only two key bits to encrypt one message bit. The resulting ciphertext is just composed of two qubits. It saves about a half cost without the loss of security. Moreover, the new scheme is probabilistic instead of deterministic.

  11. 76 FR 70768 - Biweekly Notice; Applications and Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses Involving No...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-11-15

    ... perform a probabilistic risk evaluation using the guidance contained in NRC approved NEI [Nuclear Energy... Issue Summary 2003-18, Supplement 2, ``Use of Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) 99-01, Methodology for...

  12. Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grant, Warren; Lutomski, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA model and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA model and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.

  13. Ranking of sabotage/tampering avoidance technology alternatives

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Andrews, W.B.; Tabatabai, A.S.; Powers, T.B.

    1986-01-01

    Pacific Northwest Laboratory conducted a study to evaluate alternatives to the design and operation of nuclear power plants, emphasizing a reduction of their vulnerability to sabotage. Estimates of core melt accident frequency during normal operations and from sabotage/tampering events were used to rank the alternatives. Core melt frequency for normal operations was estimated using sensitivity analysis of results of probabilistic risk assessments. Core melt frequency for sabotage/tampering was estimated by developing a model based on probabilistic risk analyses, historic data, engineering judgment, and safeguards analyses of plant locations where core melt events could be initiated. Results indicate the most effectivemore » alternatives focus on large areas of the plant, increase safety system redundancy, and reduce reliance on single locations for mitigation of transients. Less effective options focus on specific areas of the plant, reduce reliance on some plant areas for safe shutdown, and focus on less vulnerable targets.« less

  14. International Space Station End-of-Life Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duncan, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Although there are ongoing efforts to extend the ISS life cycle through 2028, the International Space Station (ISS) end-of-life (EOL) cycle is currently scheduled for 2020. The EOL for the ISS will require de-orbiting the ISS. This will be the largest manmade object ever to be de-orbited, therefore safely de-orbiting the station will be a very complex problem. This process is being planned by NASA and its international partners. Numerous factors will need to be considered to accomplish this such as target corridors, orbits, altitude, drag, maneuvering capabilities, debris mapping etc. The ISS EOL Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) will play a part in this process by estimating the reliability of the hardware supplying the maneuvering capabilities. The PRA will model the probability of failure of the systems supplying and controlling the thrust needed to aid in the de-orbit maneuvering.

  15. Probabilistic and deterministic evaluation of uncertainty in a local scale multi-risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lari, S.; Frattini, P.; Crosta, G. B.

    2009-04-01

    We performed a probabilistic multi-risk analysis (QPRA) at the local scale for a 420 km2 area surrounding the town of Brescia (Northern Italy). We calculated the expected annual loss in terms of economical damage and life loss, for a set of risk scenarios of flood, earthquake and industrial accident with different occurrence probabilities and different intensities. The territorial unit used for the study was the census parcel, of variable area, for which a large amount of data was available. Due to the lack of information related to the evaluation of the hazards, to the value of the exposed elements (e.g., residential and industrial area, population, lifelines, sensitive elements as schools, hospitals) and to the process-specific vulnerability, and to a lack of knowledge of the processes (floods, industrial accidents, earthquakes), we assigned an uncertainty to the input variables of the analysis. For some variables an homogeneous uncertainty was assigned on the whole study area, as for instance for the number of buildings of various typologies, and for the event occurrence probability. In other cases, as for phenomena intensity (e.g.,depth of water during flood) and probability of impact, the uncertainty was defined in relation to the census parcel area. In fact assuming some variables homogeneously diffused or averaged on the census parcels, we introduce a larger error for larger parcels. We propagated the uncertainty in the analysis using three different models, describing the reliability of the output (risk) as a function of the uncertainty of the inputs (scenarios and vulnerability functions). We developed a probabilistic approach based on Monte Carlo simulation, and two deterministic models, namely First Order Second Moment (FOSM) and Point Estimate (PE). In general, similar values of expected losses are obtained with the three models. The uncertainty of the final risk value is in the three cases around the 30% of the expected value. Each of the models, nevertheless, requires different assumptions and computational efforts, and provides results with different level of detail.

  16. Impact of refining the assessment of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European adult population.

    PubMed

    Ferrari, Pietro; Arcella, Davide; Heraud, Fanny; Cappé, Stefano; Fabiansson, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Exposure assessment constitutes an important step in any risk assessment of potentially harmful substances present in food. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) first assessed dietary exposure to cadmium in Europe using a deterministic framework, resulting in mean values of exposure in the range of health-based guidance values. Since then, the characterisation of foods has been refined to better match occurrence and consumption data, and a new strategy to handle left-censoring in occurrence data was devised. A probabilistic assessment was performed and compared with deterministic estimates, using occurrence values at the European level and consumption data from 14 national dietary surveys. Mean estimates in the probabilistic assessment ranged from 1.38 (95% CI = 1.35-1.44) to 2.08 (1.99-2.23) µg kg⁻¹ bodyweight (bw) week⁻¹ across the different surveys, which were less than 10% lower than deterministic (middle bound) mean values that ranged from 1.50 to 2.20 µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹. Probabilistic 95th percentile estimates of dietary exposure ranged from 2.65 (2.57-2.72) to 4.99 (4.62-5.38) µg kg⁻¹ bw week⁻¹, which were, with the exception of one survey, between 3% and 17% higher than middle-bound deterministic estimates. Overall, the proportion of subjects exceeding the tolerable weekly intake of 2.5 µg kg⁻¹ bw ranged from 14.8% (13.6-16.0%) to 31.2% (29.7-32.5%) according to the probabilistic assessment. The results of this work indicate that mean values of dietary exposure to cadmium in the European population were of similar magnitude using determinist or probabilistic assessments. For higher exposure levels, probabilistic estimates were almost consistently larger than deterministic counterparts, thus reflecting the impact of using the full distribution of occurrence values to determine exposure levels. It is considered prudent to use probabilistic methodology should exposure estimates be close to or exceeding health-based guidance values.

  17. Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

  18. The Use of Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate the Systems Impact of Component Design Improvements on Large Turbofan Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Packard, Michael H.

    2002-01-01

    Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSA) is now commonly used for predicting the distribution of time/cycles to failure of turbine blades and other engine components. These distributions are typically based on fatigue/fracture and creep failure modes of these components. Additionally, reliability analysis is used for taking test data related to particular failure modes and calculating failure rate distributions of electronic and electromechanical components. How can these individual failure time distributions of structural, electronic and electromechanical component failure modes be effectively combined into a top level model for overall system evaluation of component upgrades, changes in maintenance intervals, or line replaceable unit (LRU) redesign? This paper shows an example of how various probabilistic failure predictions for turbine engine components can be evaluated and combined to show their effect on overall engine performance. A generic model of a turbofan engine was modeled using various Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) tools (Quantitative Risk Assessment Software (QRAS) etc.). Hypothetical PSA results for a number of structural components along with mitigation factors that would restrict the failure mode from propagating to a Loss of Mission (LOM) failure were used in the models. The output of this program includes an overall failure distribution for LOM of the system. The rank and contribution to the overall Mission Success (MS) is also given for each failure mode and each subsystem. This application methodology demonstrates the effectiveness of PRA for assessing the performance of large turbine engines. Additionally, the effects of system changes and upgrades, the application of different maintenance intervals, inclusion of new sensor detection of faults and other upgrades were evaluated in determining overall turbine engine reliability.

  19. Risk Assessment for Mobile Systems Through a Multilayered Hierarchical Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Li, Shancang; Tryfonas, Theo; Russell, Gordon; Andriotis, Panagiotis

    2016-08-01

    Mobile systems are facing a number of application vulnerabilities that can be combined together and utilized to penetrate systems with devastating impact. When assessing the overall security of a mobile system, it is important to assess the security risks posed by each mobile applications (apps), thus gaining a stronger understanding of any vulnerabilities present. This paper aims at developing a three-layer framework that assesses the potential risks which apps introduce within the Android mobile systems. A Bayesian risk graphical model is proposed to evaluate risk propagation in a layered risk architecture. By integrating static analysis, dynamic analysis, and behavior analysis in a hierarchical framework, the risks and their propagation through each layer are well modeled by the Bayesian risk graph, which can quantitatively analyze risks faced to both apps and mobile systems. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian risk graph model offers a novel way to investigate the security risks in mobile environment and enables users and administrators to evaluate the potential risks. This strategy allows to strengthen both app security as well as the security of the entire system.

  20. 5 CFR 930.301 - Information systems security awareness training program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... training in system/application life cycle management, risk management, and contingency planning. (4) Chief... security management, system/application life cycle management, risk management, and contingency planning..., risk management, and contingency planning. (b) Provide the Federal information systems security...

  1. 5 CFR 930.301 - Information systems security awareness training program.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... training in system/application life cycle management, risk management, and contingency planning. (4) Chief... security management, system/application life cycle management, risk management, and contingency planning..., risk management, and contingency planning. (b) Provide the Federal information systems security...

  2. Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4

    Treesearch

    Matthew Thompson; David Calkin; Joe H. Scott; Michael Hand

    2017-01-01

    Wildfire risk assessment is increasingly being adopted to support federal wildfire management decisions in the United States. Existing decision support systems, specifically the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), provide a rich set of probabilistic and risk‐based information to support the management of active wildfire incidents. WFDSS offers a wide range...

  3. A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States

    Treesearch

    Mark A. Finney; Charles W. McHugh; Isaac C. Grenfell; Karin L. Riley; Karen C. Short

    2011-01-01

    This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn probabilities and fire size distributions. To obtain stable estimates of these quantities, fire ignition and growth was simulated for...

  4. Constellation Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): Design Consideration for the Crew Exploration Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prassinos, Peter G.; Stamatelatos, Michael G.; Young, Jonathan; Smith, Curtis

    2010-01-01

    Managed by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance, a pilot probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) of the NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was performed in early 2006. The PRA methods used follow the general guidance provided in the NASA PRA Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners'. Phased-mission based event trees and fault trees are used to model a lunar sortie mission of the CEV - involving the following phases: launch of a cargo vessel and a crew vessel; rendezvous of these two vessels in low Earth orbit; transit to th$: moon; lunar surface activities; ascension &om the lunar surface; and return to Earth. The analysis is based upon assumptions, preliminary system diagrams, and failure data that may involve large uncertainties or may lack formal validation. Furthermore, some of the data used were based upon expert judgment or extrapolated from similar componentssystemsT. his paper includes a discussion of the system-level models and provides an overview of the analysis results used to identify insights into CEV risk drivers, and trade and sensitivity studies. Lastly, the PRA model was used to determine changes in risk as the system configurations or key parameters are modified.

  5. National assessment of geologic carbon dioxide storage resources: methodology implementation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Blondes, Madalyn S.; Brennan, Sean T.; Merrill, Matthew D.; Buursink, Marc L.; Warwick, Peter D.; Cahan, Steven M.; Corum, Margo D.; Cook, Troy A.; Craddock, William H.; DeVera, Christina A.; Drake II, Ronald M.; Drew, Lawrence J.; Freeman, P.A.; Lohr, Celeste D.; Olea, Ricardo A.; Roberts-Ashby, Tina L.; Slucher, Ernie R.; Varela, Brian A.

    2013-01-01

    In response to the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted a national assessment of potential geologic storage resources for carbon dioxide (CO2). Storage of CO2 in subsurface saline formations is one important method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and curb global climate change. This report provides updates and implementation details of the assessment methodology of Brennan and others (2010, http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1127/) and describes the probabilistic model used to calculate potential storage resources in subsurface saline formations.

  6. Health risk assessment of ochratoxin A for all age-sex strata in a market economy.

    PubMed

    Kuiper-Goodman, T; Hilts, C; Billiard, S M; Kiparissis, Y; Richard, I D K; Hayward, S

    2010-02-01

    In order to manage risk of ochratoxin A (OTA) in foods, we re-evaluated the tolerable daily intake (TDI), derived the negligible cancer risk intake (NCRI), and conducted a probabilistic risk assessment. A new approach was developed to derive 'usual' probabilistic exposure in the presence of highly variable occurrence data, such as encountered with low levels of OTA. Canadian occurrence data were used for various raw food commodities or finished foods and were combined with US Department of Agriculture (USDA) food consumption data, which included data on infants and young children. Both variability and uncertainty in input data were considered in the resulting exposure estimates for various age/sex strata. Most people were exposed to OTA on a daily basis. Mean adjusted exposures for all age-sex groups were generally below the NCRI of 4 ng OTA kg bw(-1), except for 1-4-year-olds as a result of their lower body weight. For children, the major contributors of OTA were wheat-based foods followed by oats, rice, and raisins. Beer, coffee, and wine also contributed to total OTA exposure in older individuals. Predicted exposure to OTA decreased when European Commission maximum limits were applied to the occurrence data. The impact on risk for regular eaters of specific commodities was also examined.

  7. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  8. A probabilistic risk assessment for deployed military personnel after the implementation of the "Leishmaniasis Control Program" at Tallil Air Base, Iraq.

    PubMed

    Schleier, Jerome J; Davis, Ryan S; Barber, Loren M; Macedo, Paula A; Peterson, Robert K D

    2009-05-01

    Leishmaniasis has been of concern to the U.S. military and has re-emerged in importance because of recent deployments to the Middle East. We conducted a retrospective probabilistic risk assessment for military personnel potentially exposed to insecticides during the "Leishmaniasis Control Plan" (LCP) undertaken in 2003 at Tallil Air Base, Iraq. We estimated acute and subchronic risks from resmethrin, malathion, piperonyl butoxide (PBO), and pyrethrins applied using a truck-mounted ultra-low-volume (ULV) sprayer and lambda-cyhalothrin, cyfluthrin, bifenthrin, chlorpyrifos, and cypermethrin used for residual sprays. We used the risk quotient (RQ) method for our risk assessment (estimated environmental exposure/toxic endpoint) and set the RQ level of concern (LOC) at 1.0. Acute RQs for truck-mounted ULV and residual sprays ranged from 0.00007 to 33.3 at the 95th percentile. Acute exposure to lambda-cyhalothrin, bifenthrin, and chlorpyrifos exceeded the RQ LOC. Subchronic RQs for truck-mounted ULV and residual sprays ranged from 0.00008 to 32.8 at the 95th percentile. Subchronic exposures to lambda-cyhalothrin and chlorpyrifos exceeded the LOC. However, estimated exposures to lambda-cyhalothrin, bifenthrin, and chlorpyrifos did not exceed their respective no observed adverse effect levels.

  9. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas.

    PubMed

    Fabbrocino, Giovanni; Iervolino, Iunio; Orlando, Francesca; Salzano, Ernesto

    2005-08-31

    Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of industrial facilities has to take into account multiple hazards threatening critical equipment. Nevertheless, engineering procedures able to evaluate quantitatively the effect of seismic action are not well established. Indeed, relevant industrial accidents may be triggered by loss of containment following ground shaking or other relevant natural hazards, either directly or through cascade effects ('domino effects'). The issue of integrating structural seismic risk into quantitative probabilistic seismic risk analysis (QpsRA) is addressed in this paper by a representative study case regarding an oil storage plant with a number of atmospheric steel tanks containing flammable substances. Empirical seismic fragility curves and probit functions, properly defined both for building-like and non building-like industrial components, have been crossed with outcomes of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for a test site located in south Italy. Once the seismic failure probabilities have been quantified, consequence analysis has been performed for those events which may be triggered by the loss of containment following seismic action. Results are combined by means of a specific developed code in terms of local risk contour plots, i.e. the contour line for the probability of fatal injures at any point (x, y) in the analysed area. Finally, a comparison with QRA obtained by considering only process-related top events is reported for reference.

  10. Managing security risks for inter-organisational information systems: a multiagent collaborative model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Nan; Wu, Harris; Li, Minqiang; Wu, Desheng; Chen, Fuzan; Tian, Jin

    2016-09-01

    Information sharing across organisations is critical to effectively managing the security risks of inter-organisational information systems. Nevertheless, few previous studies on information systems security have focused on inter-organisational information sharing, and none have studied the sharing of inferred beliefs versus factual observations. In this article, a multiagent collaborative model (MACM) is proposed as a practical solution to assess the risk level of each allied organisation's information system and support proactive security treatment by sharing beliefs on event probabilities as well as factual observations. In MACM, for each allied organisation's information system, we design four types of agents: inspection agent, analysis agent, control agent, and communication agent. By sharing soft findings (beliefs) in addition to hard findings (factual observations) among the organisations, each organisation's analysis agent is capable of dynamically predicting its security risk level using a Bayesian network. A real-world implementation illustrates how our model can be used to manage security risks in distributed information systems and that sharing soft findings leads to lower expected loss from security risks.

  11. Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-05-01

    We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

  12. Probabilistic assessment of erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Wahl, Thomas; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-01-01

    We assess erosion and flooding risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico by identifying interdependencies among oceanographic drivers and probabilistically modeling the resulting potential for coastal change. Wave and water level observations are used to determine relationships between six hydrodynamic parameters that influence total water level and therefore erosion and flooding, through consideration of a wide range of univariate distribution functions and multivariate elliptical copulas. Using these relationships, we explore how different our interpretation of the present-day erosion/flooding risk could be if we had seen more or fewer extreme realizations of individual and combinations of parameters in the past by simulating 10,000 physically and statistically consistent sea-storm time series. We find that seasonal total water levels associated with the 100 year return period could be up to 3 m higher in summer and 0.6 m higher in winter relative to our best estimate based on the observational records. Impact hours of collision and overwash—where total water levels exceed the dune toe or dune crest elevations—could be on average 70% (collision) and 100% (overwash) larger than inferred from the observations. Our model accounts for non-stationarity in a straightforward, non-parametric way that can be applied (with little adjustments) to many other coastlines. The probabilistic model presented here, which accounts for observational uncertainty, can be applied to other coastlines where short record lengths limit the ability to identify the full range of possible wave and water level conditions that coastal mangers and planners must consider to develop sustainable management strategies.

  13. Noradrenergic modulation of risk/reward decision making.

    PubMed

    Montes, David R; Stopper, Colin M; Floresco, Stan B

    2015-08-01

    Catecholamine transmission modulates numerous cognitive and reward-related processes that can subserve more complex functions such as cost/benefit decision making. Dopamine has been shown to play an integral role in decisions involving reward uncertainty, yet there is a paucity of research investigating the contributions of noradrenaline (NA) transmission to these functions. The present study was designed to elucidate the contribution of NA to risk/reward decision making in rats, assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. We examined the effects of reducing noradrenergic transmission with the α2 agonist clonidine (10-100 μg/kg), and increasing activity at α2A receptor sites with the agonist guanfacine (0.1-1 mg/kg), the α2 antagonist yohimbine (1-3 mg/kg), and the noradrenaline transporter (NET) inhibitor atomoxetine (0.3-3 mg/kg) on probabilistic discounting. Rats chose between a small/certain reward and a larger/risky reward, wherein the probability of obtaining the larger reward either decreased (100-12.5 %) or increased (12.5-100 %) over a session. In well-trained rats, clonidine reduced risky choice by decreasing reward sensitivity, whereas guanfacine did not affect choice behavior. Yohimbine impaired adjustments in decision biases as reward probability changed within a session by altering negative feedback sensitivity. In a subset of rats that displayed prominent discounting of probabilistic rewards, the lowest dose of atomoxetine increased preference for the large/risky reward when this option had greater long-term utility. These data highlight an important and previously uncharacterized role for noradrenergic transmission in mediating different aspects of risk/reward decision making and mediating reward and negative feedback sensitivity.

  14. Network Security Risk Assessment System Based on Attack Graph and Markov Chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Fuxiong; Pi, Juntao; Lv, Jin; Cao, Tian

    2017-10-01

    Network security risk assessment technology can be found in advance of the network problems and related vulnerabilities, it has become an important means to solve the problem of network security. Based on attack graph and Markov chain, this paper provides a Network Security Risk Assessment Model (NSRAM). Based on the network infiltration tests, NSRAM generates the attack graph by the breadth traversal algorithm. Combines with the international standard CVSS, the attack probability of atomic nodes are counted, and then the attack transition probabilities of ones are calculated by Markov chain. NSRAM selects the optimal attack path after comprehensive measurement to assessment network security risk. The simulation results show that NSRAM can reflect the actual situation of network security objectively.

  15. Agent of opportunity risk mitigation: people, engineering, and security efficacy.

    PubMed

    Graham, Margaret E; Tunik, Michael G; Farmer, Brenna M; Bendzans, Carly; McCrillis, Aileen M; Nelson, Lewis S; Portelli, Ian; Smith, Silas; Goldberg, Judith D; Zhang, Meng; Rosenberg, Sheldon D; Goldfrank, Lewis R

    2010-12-01

    Agents of opportunity (AO) are potentially harmful biological, chemical, radiological, and pharmaceutical substances commonly used for health care delivery and research. AOs are present in all academic medical centers (AMC), creating vulnerability in the health care sector; AO attributes and dissemination methods likely predict risk; and AMCs are inadequately secured against a purposeful AO dissemination, with limited budgets and competing priorities. We explored health care workers' perceptions of AMC security and the impact of those perceptions on AO risk. Qualitative methods (survey, interviews, and workshops) were used to collect opinions from staff working in a medical school and 4 AMC-affiliated hospitals concerning AOs and the risk to hospital infrastructure associated with their uncontrolled presence. Secondary to this goal, staff perception concerning security, or opinions about security behaviors of others, were extracted, analyzed, and grouped into themes. We provide a framework for depicting the interaction of staff behavior and access control engineering, including the tendency of staff to "defeat" inconvenient access controls. In addition, 8 security themes emerged: staff security behavior is a significant source of AO risk; the wide range of opinions about "open" front-door policies among AMC staff illustrates a disparity of perceptions about the need for security; interviewees expressed profound skepticism concerning the effectiveness of front-door access controls; an AO risk assessment requires reconsideration of the security levels historically assigned to areas such as the loading dock and central distribution sites, where many AOs are delivered and may remain unattended for substantial periods of time; researchers' view of AMC security is influenced by the ongoing debate within the scientific community about the wisdom of engaging in bioterrorism research; there was no agreement about which areas of the AMC should be subject to stronger access controls; security personnel play dual roles of security and customer service, creating the negative perception that neither role is done well; and budget was described as an important factor in explaining the state of security controls. We determined that AMCs seeking to reduce AO risk should assess their institutionally unique AO risks, understand staff security perceptions, and install access controls that are responsive to the staff's tendency to defeat them. The development of AO attribute fact sheets is desirable for AO risk assessment; new funding and administrative or legislative tools to improve AMC security are required; and security practices and methods that are convenient and effective should be engineered.

  16. Characterization of Departures from Regulatory Requirements Identified During Inspections Conducted by the US Federal Select Agent Program, 2014-15.

    PubMed

    Bjork, Adam; Sosin, Daniel M

    We studied departures from regulatory requirements identified on US Federal Select Agent Program (FSAP) inspections to increase transparency regarding biosafety and security risk at FSAP-regulated entities and identify areas for programmatic improvement. Regulatory departures from inspections led by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention inspectors during 2014-15 were grouped into "biosafety," "security," and "other" observation categories and assigned a risk level and score reflecting perceived severity. The resulting 2,267 biosafety (n = 1,153) and security (n = 1,114) observations from 296 inspections were analyzed by frequency and risk across entity and inspection characteristics. The greatest proportion of biosafety observations involved equipment and facilities (28%), and the greatest proportion of security observations involved access restrictions (33%). The greatest proportion of higher-risk observations for biosafety were containment issues and for security were inventory discrepancies. Commercial entities had the highest median cumulative risk score per inspection (17), followed by private (13), academic (10), federal government (10), and nonfederal government (8). Maximum containment (BSL-4) inspections had higher median biosafety risk per inspection (13) than other inspections (5) and lower security risk (0 vs 4). Unannounced inspections had proportionally more upper risk level observations than announced (biosafety, 21% vs 12%; security, 18% vs 7%). Possessors of select agents had higher median biosafety risk per inspection (6) than nonpossessors (4) and more upper risk level security observations (10% vs 0%). Programmatic changes to balance resources according to entity risk may strengthen FSAP oversight. Varying inspection methods by select agent possession and entity type, and conducting more unannounced inspections, may be beneficial.

  17. Applying adverse outcome pathways and species sensitivity-weighted distribution to predicted-no-effect concentration derivation and quantitative ecological risk assessment for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol in aquatic environments: A case study on Tianjin City, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ying; Na, Guangshui; Zong, Humin; Ma, Xindong; Yang, Xianhai; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Lijun; Lin, Zhongsheng; Zhang, Zhifeng; Wang, Juying; Zhao, Jinsong

    2018-02-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a novel concept that effectively considers the toxic modes of action and guides the ecological risk assessment of chemicals. To better use toxicity data including biochemical or molecular responses and mechanistic data, we further developed a species sensitivity-weighted distribution (SSWD) method for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol. Their aquatic predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived using the log-normal statistical extrapolation method. We calculated aquatic PNECs of bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol with values of 4.01 and 0.721 µg/L, respectively. The ecological risk of each chemical in different aquatic environments near Tianjin, China, a coastal municipality along the Bohai Sea, was characterized by hazard quotient and probabilistic risk quotient assessment techniques. Hazard quotients of 7.02 and 5.99 at 2 municipal sewage sites using all of the endpoints were observed for 4-nonylphenol, which indicated high ecological risks posed by 4-nonylphenol to aquatic organisms, especially endocrine-disrupting effects. Moreover, a high ecological risk of 4-nonylphenol was indicated based on the probabilistic risk quotient method. The present results show that combining the SSWD method and the AOP concept could better protect aquatic organisms from adverse effects such as endocrine disruption and could decrease uncertainty in ecological risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:551-562. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  18. Space Radiation Cancer Risks and Uncertainities for Different Mission Time Periods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim,Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.

    2012-01-01

    Space radiation consists of solar particle events (SPEs), comprised largely of medium energy protons (less than several hundred MeV); and galactic cosmic ray (GCR), which includes high energy protons and high charge and energy (HZE) nuclei. For long duration missions, space radiation presents significant health risks including cancer mortality. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is essential for radiation protection of crews on long term space missions outside of the protection of the Earth s magnetic field and for optimization of mission planning and costs. For the assessment of organ dosimetric quantities and cancer risks, the particle spectra at each critical body organs must be characterized. In implementing a PRA approach, a statistical model of SPE fluence was developed, because the individual SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature while the frequency distribution of SPEs depends strongly upon the phase within the solar activity cycle. Spectral variability of SPEs was also examined, because the detailed energy spectra of protons are important especially at high energy levels for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. An overall cumulative probability of a GCR environment for a specified mission period was estimated for the temporal characterization of the GCR environment represented by the deceleration potential (theta). Finally, this probabilistic approach to space radiation cancer risk was coupled with a model of the radiobiological factors and uncertainties in projecting cancer risks. Probabilities of fatal cancer risk and 95% confidence intervals will be reported for various periods of space missions.

  19. A probabilistic method for computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injuries compensation claims.

    PubMed

    Dalle Carbonare, S; Folli, F; Patrini, E; Giudici, P; Bellazzi, R

    2013-01-01

    The increasing demand of health care services and the complexity of health care delivery require Health Care Organizations (HCOs) to approach clinical risk management through proper methods and tools. An important aspect of risk management is to exploit the analysis of medical injuries compensation claims in order to reduce adverse events and, at the same time, to optimize the costs of health insurance policies. This work provides a probabilistic method to estimate the risk level of a HCO by computing quantitative risk indexes from medical injury compensation claims. Our method is based on the estimate of a loss probability distribution from compensation claims data through parametric and non-parametric modeling and Monte Carlo simulations. The loss distribution can be estimated both on the whole dataset and, thanks to the application of a Bayesian hierarchical model, on stratified data. The approach allows to quantitatively assessing the risk structure of the HCO by analyzing the loss distribution and deriving its expected value and percentiles. We applied the proposed method to 206 cases of injuries with compensation requests collected from 1999 to the first semester of 2007 by the HCO of Lodi, in the Northern part of Italy. We computed the risk indexes taking into account the different clinical departments and the different hospitals involved. The approach proved to be useful to understand the HCO risk structure in terms of frequency, severity, expected and unexpected loss related to adverse events.

  20. Improving the Security of the U.S. Aeronautical Domain: Adopting an Intelligence-Led, Risk-Based Strategy and Partnership

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    Methodology RMAT Risk Management Assessment Tool SIDA Security Identification Display Area SIGINT Signals Intelligence SO18 Aviation Security...aircraft operate (§ 1542.203); • Provide detection and physical security measures for the “Security Identification Display Area” ( SIDA ), i.e., the area

  1. Some methods for blindfolded record linkage.

    PubMed

    Churches, Tim; Christen, Peter

    2004-06-28

    The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects - a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. Although the protocols described in this paper are not unconditionally secure, they do suggest the feasibility, with the aid of modern cryptographic techniques and high speed communication networks, of a general purpose probabilistic record linkage system which permits record linkage studies to be carried out with negligible risk of invasion of personal privacy.

  2. Some methods for blindfolded record linkage

    PubMed Central

    Churches, Tim; Christen, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Background The linkage of records which refer to the same entity in separate data collections is a common requirement in public health and biomedical research. Traditionally, record linkage techniques have required that all the identifying data in which links are sought be revealed to at least one party, often a third party. This necessarily invades personal privacy and requires complete trust in the intentions of that party and their ability to maintain security and confidentiality. Dusserre, Quantin, Bouzelat and colleagues have demonstrated that it is possible to use secure one-way hash transformations to carry out follow-up epidemiological studies without any party having to reveal identifying information about any of the subjects – a technique which we refer to as "blindfolded record linkage". A limitation of their method is that only exact comparisons of values are possible, although phonetic encoding of names and other strings can be used to allow for some types of typographical variation and data errors. Methods A method is described which permits the calculation of a general similarity measure, the n-gram score, without having to reveal the data being compared, albeit at some cost in computation and data communication. This method can be combined with public key cryptography and automatic estimation of linkage model parameters to create an overall system for blindfolded record linkage. Results The system described offers good protection against misdeeds or security failures by any one party, but remains vulnerable to collusion between or simultaneous compromise of two or more parties involved in the linkage operation. In order to reduce the likelihood of this, the use of last-minute allocation of tasks to substitutable servers is proposed. Proof-of-concept computer programmes written in the Python programming language are provided to illustrate the similarity comparison protocol. Conclusion Although the protocols described in this paper are not unconditionally secure, they do suggest the feasibility, with the aid of modern cryptographic techniques and high speed communication networks, of a general purpose probabilistic record linkage system which permits record linkage studies to be carried out with negligible risk of invasion of personal privacy. PMID:15222890

  3. Advanced quality systems : probabilistic optimization for profit (Prob.O.Prof) software

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-04-01

    Contractors constantly have to make decisions regarding how to maximize profit and minimize risk on paving projects. With more and more States adopting incentive/disincentive pay adjustment provisions for quality, as measured by various acceptance qu...

  4. Reduced activation in ventral striatum and ventral tegmental area during probabilistic decision-making in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Esslinger, Christine; Schilling, Claudia; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2014-07-01

    Patients with schizophrenia suffer from deficits in monitoring and controlling their own thoughts. Within these so-called metacognitive impairments, alterations in probabilistic reasoning might be one cognitive phenomenon disposing to delusions. However, so far little is known about alterations in associated brain functionality. A previously established task for functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), which requires a probabilistic decision after a variable amount of stimuli, was applied to 23 schizophrenia patients and 28 healthy controls matched for age, gender and educational levels. We compared activation patterns during decision-making under conditions of certainty versus uncertainty and evaluated the process of final decision-making in ventral striatum (VS) and ventral tegmental area (VTA). We replicated a pre-described extended cortical activation pattern during probabilistic reasoning. During final decision-making, activations in several fronto- and parietocortical areas, as well as in VS and VTA became apparent. In both of these regions schizophrenia patients showed a significantly reduced activation. These results further define the network underlying probabilistic decision-making. The observed hypo-activation in regions commonly associated with dopaminergic neurotransmission fits into current concepts of disrupted prediction error signaling in schizophrenia and suggests functional links to reward anticipation. Forthcoming studies with patients at risk for psychosis and drug-naive first episode patients are necessary to elucidate the development of these findings over time and the interplay with associated clinical symptoms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. INTEGRATION OF RELIABILITY WITH MECHANISTIC THERMALHYDRAULICS: REPORT ON APPROACH AND TEST PROBLEM RESULTS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    J. S. Schroeder; R. W. Youngblood

    The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program is developing simulation-based methods and tools for analyzing safety margin from a modern perspective. [1] There are multiple definitions of 'margin.' One class of definitions defines margin in terms of the distance between a point estimate of a given performance parameter (such as peak clad temperature), and a point-value acceptance criterion defined for that parameter (such as 2200 F). The present perspective on margin is that it relates to the probability of failure, and not just the distance between a nominal operating point and a criterion.more » In this work, margin is characterized through a probabilistic analysis of the 'loads' imposed on systems, structures, and components, and their 'capacity' to resist those loads without failing. Given the probabilistic load and capacity spectra, one can assess the probability that load exceeds capacity, leading to component failure. Within the project, we refer to a plot of these probabilistic spectra as 'the logo.' Refer to Figure 1 for a notional illustration. The implications of referring to 'the logo' are (1) RISMC is focused on being able to analyze loads and spectra probabilistically, and (2) calling it 'the logo' tacitly acknowledges that it is a highly simplified picture: meaningful analysis of a given component failure mode may require development of probabilistic spectra for multiple physical parameters, and in many practical cases, 'load' and 'capacity' will not vary independently.« less

  6. Probabilistic Sizing and Verification of Space Ceramic Structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denaux, David; Ballhause, Dirk; Logut, Daniel; Lucarelli, Stefano; Coe, Graham; Laine, Benoit

    2012-07-01

    Sizing of ceramic parts is best optimised using a probabilistic approach which takes into account the preexisting flaw distribution in the ceramic part to compute a probability of failure of the part depending on the applied load, instead of a maximum allowable load as for a metallic part. This requires extensive knowledge of the material itself but also an accurate control of the manufacturing process. In the end, risk reduction approaches such as proof testing may be used to lower the final probability of failure of the part. Sizing and verification of ceramic space structures have been performed by Astrium for more than 15 years, both with Zerodur and SiC: Silex telescope structure, Seviri primary mirror, Herschel telescope, Formosat-2 instrument, and other ceramic structures flying today. Throughout this period of time, Astrium has investigated and developed experimental ceramic analysis tools based on the Weibull probabilistic approach. In the scope of the ESA/ESTEC study: “Mechanical Design and Verification Methodologies for Ceramic Structures”, which is to be concluded in the beginning of 2012, existing theories, technical state-of-the-art from international experts, and Astrium experience with probabilistic analysis tools have been synthesized into a comprehensive sizing and verification method for ceramics. Both classical deterministic and more optimised probabilistic methods are available, depending on the criticality of the item and on optimisation needs. The methodology, based on proven theory, has been successfully applied to demonstration cases and has shown its practical feasibility.

  7. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions.

    PubMed

    Kaufman, Leyla V; Wright, Mark G

    2017-07-07

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments.

  8. Assessing Probabilistic Risk Assessment Approaches for Insect Biological Control Introductions

    PubMed Central

    Kaufman, Leyla V.; Wright, Mark G.

    2017-01-01

    The introduction of biological control agents to new environments requires host specificity tests to estimate potential non-target impacts of a prospective agent. Currently, the approach is conservative, and is based on physiological host ranges determined under captive rearing conditions, without consideration for ecological factors that may influence realized host range. We use historical data and current field data from introduced parasitoids that attack an endemic Lepidoptera species in Hawaii to validate a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) procedure for non-target impacts. We use data on known host range and habitat use in the place of origin of the parasitoids to determine whether contemporary levels of non-target parasitism could have been predicted using PRA. Our results show that reasonable predictions of potential non-target impacts may be made if comprehensive data are available from places of origin of biological control agents, but scant data produce poor predictions. Using apparent mortality data rather than marginal attack rate estimates in PRA resulted in over-estimates of predicted non-target impact. Incorporating ecological data into PRA models improved the predictive power of the risk assessments. PMID:28686180

  9. DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans.

    PubMed

    Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

    2016-06-01

    It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans.

  10. Interim reliability evaluation program, Browns Ferry 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mays, S.E.; Poloski, J.P.; Sullivan, W.H.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilistic risk analysis techniques, i.e., event tree and fault tree analysis, were utilized to provide a risk assessment of the Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Unit 1. Browns Ferry 1 is a General Electric boiling water reactor of the BWR 4 product line with a Mark 1 (drywell and torus) containment. Within the guidelines of the IREP Procedure and Schedule Guide, dominant accident sequences that contribute to public health and safety risks were identified and grouped according to release categories.

  11. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

    PubMed

    Silva, Carlos Patrick Alves da; Puty, Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco; Silva, Marcelino Silva da; Carvalho, Solon Venâncio de; Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa

    2017-01-01

    Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

  12. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil’s social security system

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government’s proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts. PMID:28859172

  13. Information and problem report usage in system saftey engineering division

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morrissey, Stephen J.

    1990-01-01

    Five basic problems or question areas are examined. They are as follows: (1) Evaluate adequacy of current problem/performance data base; (2) Evaluate methods of performing trend analysis; (3) Methods and sources of data for probabilistic risk assessment; and (4) How is risk assessment documentation upgraded and/or updated. The fifth problem was to provide recommendations for each of the above four areas.

  14. Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2011-01-01

    Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

  15. Location Privacy for Mobile Crowd Sensing through Population Mapping †

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Minho; Cornelius, Cory; Kapadia, Apu; Triandopoulos, Nikos; Kotz, David

    2015-01-01

    Opportunistic sensing allows applications to “task” mobile devices to measure context in a target region. For example, one could leverage sensor-equipped vehicles to measure traffic or pollution levels on a particular street or users' mobile phones to locate (Bluetooth-enabled) objects in their vicinity. In most proposed applications, context reports include the time and location of the event, putting the privacy of users at increased risk: even if identifying information has been removed from a report, the accompanying time and location can reveal sufficient information to de-anonymize the user whose device sent the report. We propose and evaluate a novel spatiotemporal blurring mechanism based on tessellation and clustering to protect users' privacy against the system while reporting context. Our technique employs a notion of probabilistic k-anonymity; it allows users to perform local blurring of reports efficiently without an online anonymization server before the data are sent to the system. The proposed scheme can control the degree of certainty in location privacy and the quality of reports through a system parameter. We outline the architecture and security properties of our approach and evaluate our tessellation and clustering algorithm against real mobility traces. PMID:26131676

  16. 46 CFR 308.507 - Security for payment of premiums.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Security for payment of premiums. 308.507 Section 308.507 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.507 Security for payment of...

  17. 46 CFR 308.507 - Security for payment of premiums.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Security for payment of premiums. 308.507 Section 308.507 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.507 Security for payment of...

  18. 46 CFR 308.507 - Security for payment of premiums.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Security for payment of premiums. 308.507 Section 308.507 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.507 Security for payment of...

  19. 46 CFR 308.507 - Security for payment of premiums.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Security for payment of premiums. 308.507 Section 308.507 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.507 Security for payment of...

  20. 46 CFR 308.507 - Security for payment of premiums.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Security for payment of premiums. 308.507 Section 308.507 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE War Risk Cargo Insurance Ii-Open Policy War Risk Cargo Insurance § 308.507 Security for payment of...

  1. The pyPHaz software, an interactive tool to analyze and visualize results from probabilistic hazard assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonini, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) is becoming an essential tool for risk mitigation policies, since it allows to quantify the hazard due to hazardous phenomena and, differently from the deterministic approach, it accounts for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. On the other hand, one of the main disadvantages of PHA methods is that their results are not easy to understand and interpret by people who are not specialist in probabilistic tools. For scientists, this leads to the issue of providing tools that can be easily used and understood by decision makers (i.e., risk managers or local authorities). The work here presented fits into the problem of simplifying the transfer between scientific knowledge and land protection policies, by providing an interface between scientists, who produce PHA's results, and decision makers, who use PHA's results for risk analyses. In this framework we present pyPHaz, an open tool developed and designed to visualize and analyze PHA results due to one or more phenomena affecting a specific area of interest. The software implementation has been fully developed with the free and open-source Python programming language and some featured Python-based libraries and modules. The pyPHaz tool allows to visualize the Hazard Curves (HC) calculated in a selected target area together with different levels of uncertainty (mean and percentiles) on maps that can be interactively created and modified by the user, thanks to a dedicated Graphical User Interface (GUI). Moreover, the tool can be used to compare the results of different PHA models and to merge them, by creating ensemble models. The pyPHaz software has been designed with the features of storing and accessing all the data through a MySQL database and of being able to read as input the XML-based standard file formats defined in the frame of GEM (Global Earthquake Model). This format model is easy to extend also to any other kind of hazard, as it will be shown in the applications here used as examples of the pyPHaz potentialities, that are focused on a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra dispersal and fallout applied to the municipality of Naples.

  2. 76 FR 55717 - Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS); Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-09-08

    ... NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards (ACRS); Meeting of the ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment The ACRS Subcommittee on Reliability and PRA will hold a meeting [[Page 55718

  3. Influence diagrams as oil spill decision science tools

    EPA Science Inventory

    Making inferences on risks to ecosystem services (ES) from ecological crises can be more reliably handled using decision science tools. Influence diagrams (IDs) are probabilistic networks that explicitly represent the decisions related to a problem and evidence of their influence...

  4. Effects of shipping on marine acoustic habitats in Canadian Arctic estimated via probabilistic modeling and mapping.

    PubMed

    Aulanier, Florian; Simard, Yvan; Roy, Nathalie; Gervaise, Cédric; Bandet, Marion

    2017-12-15

    Canadian Arctic and Subarctic regions experience a rapid decrease of sea ice accompanied with increasing shipping traffic. The resulting time-space changes in shipping noise are studied for four key regions of this pristine environment, for 2013 traffic conditions and a hypothetical tenfold traffic increase. A probabilistic modeling and mapping framework, called Ramdam, which integrates the intrinsic variability and uncertainties of shipping noise and its effects on marine habitats, is developed and applied. A substantial transformation of soundscapes is observed in areas where shipping noise changes from present occasional-transient contributor to a dominant noise source. Examination of impacts on low-frequency mammals within ecologically and biologically significant areas reveals that shipping noise has the potential to trigger behavioral responses and masking in the future, although no risk of temporary or permanent hearing threshold shifts is noted. Such probabilistic modeling and mapping is strategic in marine spatial planning of this emerging noise issues. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  6. Probabilistic framework for assessing the arsenic exposure risk from cooked fish consumption.

    PubMed

    Ling, Min-Pei; Wu, Chiu-Hua; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Chen, Wei-Yu; Chio, Chia-Pin; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Liao, Chung-Min

    2014-12-01

    Geogenic arsenic (As) contamination of groundwater is a major ecological and human health problem in southwestern and northeastern coastal areas of Taiwan. Here, we present a probabilistic framework for assessing the human health risks from consuming raw and cooked fish that were cultured in groundwater As-contaminated ponds in Taiwan by linking a physiologically based pharmacokinetics model and a Weibull dose-response model. Results indicate that As levels in baked, fried, and grilled fish were higher than those of raw fish. Frying resulted in the greatest increase in As concentration, followed by grilling, with baking affecting the As concentration the least. Simulation results show that, following consumption of baked As-contaminated fish, the health risk to humans is <10(-6) excess bladder cancer risk level for lifetime exposure; as the incidence ratios of liver and lung cancers are generally acceptable at risk ranging from 10(-6) to 10(-4), the consumption of baked As-contaminated fish is unlikely to pose a significant risk to human health. However, contaminated fish cooked by frying resulted in significant health risks, showing the highest cumulative incidence ratios of liver cancer. We also show that males have higher cumulative incidence ratio of liver cancer than females. We found that although cooking resulted in an increase for As levels in As-contaminated fish, the risk to human health of consuming baked fish is nevertheless acceptable. We suggest the adoption of baking as a cooking method and warn against frying As-contaminated fish. We conclude that the concentration of contaminants after cooking should be taken into consideration when assessing the risk to human health.

  7. DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.

    We report that many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has beenmore » examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Lastly, although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.« less

  8. Probability concepts in quality risk management.

    PubMed

    Claycamp, H Gregg

    2012-01-01

    Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although risk is generally a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management tools are relatively silent on the meaning and uses of "probability." The probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of frequency-based calculation and a "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management. A rich history of probability in risk management applied to other fields suggests that high-quality risk management decisions benefit from the implementation of more thoughtful probability concepts in both risk modeling and risk management. Essentially any concept of risk is built on fundamental concepts of chance, likelihood, or probability. Although "risk" generally describes a probability of loss of something of value, given that a risk-generating event will occur or has occurred, it is ironic that the quality risk management literature and guidelines on quality risk management methodologies and respective tools focus on managing severity but are relatively silent on the in-depth meaning and uses of "probability." Pharmaceutical manufacturers are expanding their use of quality risk management to identify and manage risks to the patient that might occur in phases of the pharmaceutical life cycle from drug development to manufacture, marketing to product discontinuation. A probability concept is typically applied by risk managers as a combination of data-based measures of probability and a subjective "degree of belief" meaning of probability. Probability as a concept that is crucial for understanding and managing risk is discussed through examples from the most general, scenario-defining and ranking tools that use probability implicitly to more specific probabilistic tools in risk management.

  9. Security-by-Experiment: Lessons from Responsible Deployment in Cyberspace.

    PubMed

    Pieters, Wolter; Hadžiosmanović, Dina; Dechesne, Francien

    2016-06-01

    Conceiving new technologies as social experiments is a means to discuss responsible deployment of technologies that may have unknown and potentially harmful side-effects. Thus far, the uncertain outcomes addressed in the paradigm of new technologies as social experiments have been mostly safety-related, meaning that potential harm is caused by the design plus accidental events in the environment. In some domains, such as cyberspace, adversarial agents (attackers) may be at least as important when it comes to undesirable effects of deployed technologies. In such cases, conditions for responsible experimentation may need to be implemented differently, as attackers behave strategically rather than probabilistically. In this contribution, we outline how adversarial aspects are already taken into account in technology deployment in the field of cyber security, and what the paradigm of new technologies as social experiments can learn from this. In particular, we show the importance of adversarial roles in social experiments with new technologies.

  10. Economic Evaluation of the Information Security Levels Achieved by Electric Energy Providers in North Arctic Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sushko, O. P.; Kaznin, A. A.; Babkin, A. V.; Bogdanov, D. A.

    2017-10-01

    The study we are conducting involves the analysis of information security levels achieved by energy providers operating in the North Arctic Region. We look into whether the energy providers’ current information security levels meet reliability standards and determine what further actions may be needed for upgrading information security in the context of the digital transformation that the world community is undergoing. When developing the information security systems for electric energy providers or selecting the protection means for them, we are governed by the fact that the assets to be protected are process technologies. While information security risk can be assessed using different methods, the evaluation of the economic damage from these risks appears to be a difficult task. The most probable and harmful risks we have identified when evaluating the electric energy providers’ information security will be used by us as variables. To provide the evaluation, it is necessary to calculate the costs relating to elimination of the risks identified. The final stage of the study will involve the development of an operation algorithm for the North Arctic Region’s energy provider’s business information protection security system - a set of information security services, and security software and hardware.

  11. Numeracy of multiple sclerosis patients: A comparison of patients from the PERCEPT study to a German probabilistic sample.

    PubMed

    Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Giese, Helge; Galesic, Mirta; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Kasper, Juergen; Kleiter, Ingo; Meuth, Sven G; Köpke, Sascha; Heesen, Christoph

    2018-01-01

    A shared decision-making approach is suggested for multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. To properly evaluate benefits and risks of different treatment options accordingly, MS patients require sufficient numeracy - the ability to understand quantitative information. It is unknown whether MS affects numeracy. Therefore, we investigated whether patients' numeracy was impaired compared to a probabilistic national sample. As part of the larger prospective, observational, multicenter study PERCEPT, we assessed numeracy for a clinical study sample of German MS patients (N=725) with a standard test and compared them to a German probabilistic sample (N=1001), controlling for age, sex, and education. Within patients, we assessed whether disease variables (disease duration, disability, annual relapse rate, cognitive impairment) predicted numeracy beyond these demographics. MS patients showed a comparable level of numeracy as the probabilistic national sample (68.9% vs. 68.5% correct answers, P=0.831). In both samples, numeracy was higher for men and the highly educated. Disease variables did not predict numeracy beyond demographics within patients, and predictability was generally low. This sample of MS patients understood quantitative information on the same level as the general population. There is no reason to withhold quantitative information from MS patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Aviation Security: Biometric Technology and Risk Based Security Aviation Passenger Screening Program

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-12-01

    distribution is unlimited 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE A 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words ) Since 9/11, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA...Council POE Point Of Entry RBS Risk-Based Security SENTRI Secure Electronic Network for Travelers Rapid Inspection SFPD Secure Flight Passenger...Committee on Biometrics provides the origins of biometrics; the term “biometrics” is derived from the Greek words “bio” (life) and “metrics” (to measure

  13. Management of Risk and Uncertainty in Systems Acquisition: Proceedings of the 1983 Defense Risk and Uncertainty Workshop Held at Fort Belvoir, Virginia on 13-15 July 1983

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-15

    categories, however, represent the reality in major acquisition and are often overlooked. Although Figure 1 does not reflect tne dynamics and Interactions...networking and improved computer capabili- ties probabilistic network simulation became a reality . The Naval Sea Systems Command became involved in...reasons for using the WBS are plain: 1. Virtually all risk-prone activities are performed by the contractor, not Government. Government is responsible

  14. A review of post-nuclear-catastrophe management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nifenecker, Hervé

    2015-07-01

    The purpose of this paper is to make radioactive risk more generally understandable. To that end, we compare it to smoking tobacco. Further, we show that the concept of loss of life expectancy permits a quantitative comparison between various aggressions. The demystification of radioactive risk should lead to basic changes in post-catastrophe management, allowing victims to choose whether or not to leave contaminated areas. A less emotional appreciation of radioactive risks should lead to the adaptation of legal practices when dealing with probabilistic situations.

  15. Constrained dictionary learning and probabilistic hypergraph ranking for person re-identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, You; Wu, Song; Pu, Nan; Qian, Li; Xiao, Guoqiang

    2018-04-01

    Person re-identification is a fundamental and inevitable task in public security. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to improve the performance of this task. First, two different types of descriptors are extracted to represent a pedestrian: (1) appearance-based superpixel features, which are constituted mainly by conventional color features and extracted from the supepixel rather than a whole picture and (2) due to the limitation of discrimination of appearance features, the deep features extracted by feature fusion Network are also used. Second, a view invariant subspace is learned by dictionary learning constrained by the minimum negative sample (termed as DL-cMN) to reduce the noise in appearance-based superpixel feature domain. Then, we use deep features and sparse codes transformed by appearancebased features to establish the hyperedges respectively by k-nearest neighbor, rather than jointing different features simply. Finally, a final ranking is performed by probabilistic hypergraph ranking algorithm. Extensive experiments on three challenging datasets (VIPeR, PRID450S and CUHK01) demonstrate the advantages and effectiveness of our proposed algorithm.

  16. 12 CFR Appendix B to Part 364 - Interagency Guidelines Establishing Information Security Standards

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... Relationships Risk Management Principles,” Nov. 1, 2001; FDIC FIL 68-99, Risk Assessment Tools and Practices for... Customer Information A. Information Security Program B. Objectives III. Development and Implementation of Customer Information Security Program A. Involve the Board of Directors B. Assess Risk C. Manage and...

  17. 7 CFR 331.10 - Restricting access to select agents and toxins; security risk assessments.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ...; security risk assessments. 331.10 Section 331.10 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE POSSESSION, USE, AND TRANSFER OF SELECT AGENTS AND TOXINS § 331.10 Restricting access to select agents and toxins; security risk...

  18. 17 CFR 405.5 - Risk assessment reporting requirements for registered government securities brokers and dealers.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment reporting requirements for registered government securities brokers and dealers. 405.5 Section 405.5 Commodity and... OF 1934 REPORTS AND AUDIT § 405.5 Risk assessment reporting requirements for registered government...

  19. 49 CFR 209.501 - Review of rail transportation safety and security route analysis.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... establish that the route chosen by the carrier poses the least overall safety and security risk, the... analysis, including a clear description of the risks on the selected route that have not been... commercially practicable alternative route poses fewer overall safety and security risks than the route...

  20. 48 CFR 1352.237-70 - Security processing requirements-high or moderate risk contracts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... requirements-high or moderate risk contracts. 1352.237-70 Section 1352.237-70 Federal Acquisition Regulations... Provisions and Clauses 1352.237-70 Security processing requirements—high or moderate risk contracts. As prescribed in 48 CFR 1337.110-70 (b), insert the following clause: Security Processing Requirements—High or...

  1. Securing Location Services Infrastructures: Practical Criteria for Application Developers and Solutions Architects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karamanian, Andre

    2013-01-01

    This qualitative, exploratory, normative study examined the security and privacy of location based services in mobile applications. This study explored risk, and controls to implement privacy and security. This study was addressed using components of the FIPS Risk Management Framework. This study found that risk to location information was…

  2. Security risk assessment: applying the concepts of fuzzy logic.

    PubMed

    Bajpai, Shailendra; Sachdeva, Anish; Gupta, J P

    2010-01-15

    Chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals in bulk can be attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. It is therefore imperative to have comprehensive security risk management programme including effective security risk assessment techniques. In an earlier work, it has been shown that security risk assessment can be done by conducting threat and vulnerability analysis or by developing Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). HAZOP type vulnerability assessment sheets can be developed that are scenario based. In SRFT model, important security risk bearing factors such as location, ownership, visibility, inventory, etc., have been used. In this paper, the earlier developed SRFT model has been modified using the concepts of fuzzy logic. In the modified SRFT model, two linguistic fuzzy scales (three-point and four-point) are devised based on trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Human subjectivity of different experts associated with previous SRFT model is tackled by mapping their scores to the newly devised fuzzy scale. Finally, the fuzzy score thus obtained is defuzzyfied to get the results. A test case of a refinery is used to explain the method and compared with the earlier work.

  3. Risk assessment considerations with regard to the potential impacts of pesticides on endangered species.

    PubMed

    Brain, Richard A; Teed, R Scott; Bang, JiSu; Thorbek, Pernille; Perine, Jeff; Peranginangin, Natalia; Kim, Myoungwoo; Valenti, Ted; Chen, Wenlin; Breton, Roger L; Rodney, Sara I; Moore, Dwayne R J

    2015-01-01

    Simple, deterministic screening-level assessments that are highly conservative by design facilitate a rapid initial screening to determine whether a pesticide active ingredient has the potential to adversely affect threatened or endangered species. If a worst-case estimate of pesticide exposure is below a very conservative effects metric (e.g., the no observed effects concentration of the most sensitive tested surrogate species) then the potential risks are considered de minimis and unlikely to jeopardize the existence of a threatened or endangered species. Thus by design, such compounded layers of conservatism are intended to minimize potential Type II errors (failure to reject a false null hypothesis of de minimus risk), but correspondingly increase Type I errors (falsely reject a null hypothesis of de minimus risk). Because of the conservatism inherent in screening-level risk assessments, higher-tier scientific information and analyses that provide additional environmental realism can be applied in cases where a potential risk has been identified. This information includes community-level effects data, environmental fate and exposure data, monitoring data, geospatial location and proximity data, species biology data, and probabilistic exposure and population models. Given that the definition of "risk" includes likelihood and magnitude of effect, higher-tier risk assessments should use probabilistic techniques that more accurately and realistically characterize risk. Moreover, where possible and appropriate, risk assessments should focus on effects at the population and community levels of organization rather than the more traditional focus on the organism level. This document provides a review of some types of higher-tier data and assessment refinements available to more accurately and realistically evaluate potential risks of pesticide use to threatened and endangered species. © 2014 SETAC.

  4. Assessing the inhalation cancer risk of particulate matter bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for the elderly in a retirement community of a mega city in North China.

    PubMed

    Han, Bin; Liu, Yating; You, Yan; Xu, Jia; Zhou, Jian; Zhang, Jiefeng; Niu, Can; Zhang, Nan; He, Fei; Ding, Xiao; Bai, Zhipeng

    2016-10-01

    Assessment of the health risks resulting from exposure to ambient polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is limited by the lack of environmental exposure data among different subpopulations. To assess the exposure cancer risk of particulate carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon pollution for the elderly, this study conducted a personal exposure measurement campaign for particulate PAHs in a community of Tianjin, a city in northern China. Personal exposure samples were collected from the elderly in non-heating (August-September, 2009) and heating periods (November-December, 2009), and 12 PAHs individuals were analyzed for risk estimation. Questionnaire and time-activity log were also recorded for each person. The probabilistic risk assessment model was integrated with Toxic Equivalent Factors (TEFs). Considering that the estimation of the applied dose for a given air pollutant is dependent on the inhalation rate, the inhalation rate from both EPA exposure factor book was applied to calculate the carcinogenic risk in this study. Monte Carlo simulation was used as a probabilistic risk assessment model, and risk simulation results indicated that the inhalation-ILCR values for both male and female subjects followed a lognormal distribution with a mean of 4.81 × 10 -6 and 4.57 × 10 -6 , respectively. Furthermore, the 95 % probability lung cancer risks were greater than the USEPA acceptable level of 10 -6 for both men and women through the inhalation route, revealing that exposure to PAHs posed an unacceptable potential cancer risk for the elderly in this study. As a result, some measures should be taken to reduce PAHs pollution and the exposure level to decrease the cancer risk for the general population, especially for the elderly.

  5. Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

    PubMed

    Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

    2014-07-01

    The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Exposure Assessment Tools by Tiers and Types - Deterministic and Probabilistic Assessments

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA ExpoBox is a toolbox for exposure assessors. Its purpose is to provide a compendium of exposure assessment and risk characterization tools that will present comprehensive step-by-step guidance and links to relevant exposure assessment data bases

  7. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental assessments for evidence-based policy

    EPA Science Inventory

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the p...

  8. PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE EFFECTS OF SOLAR ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION ON AMPHIBIANS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several studies have demonstrated that exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation can cause elevated mortality and an increased prevalence of eye and limb malformations in developing amphibian larvae. From these observations scientists have hypothesized that recent increases in...

  9. Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

    Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

  10. The new risk paradigm for chemical process security and safety.

    PubMed

    Moore, David A

    2004-11-11

    The world of safety and security in the chemical process industries has certainly changed since 11 September, but the biggest challenges may be yet to come. This paper will explain that there is a new risk management paradigm for chemical security, discuss the differences in interpreting this risk versus accidental risk, and identify the challenges we can anticipate will occur in the future on this issue. Companies need to be ready to manage the new chemical security responsibilities and to exceed the expectations of the public and regulators. This paper will outline the challenge and a suggested course of action.

  11. Guidelines for contingency planning NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk reduction decision studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tompkins, F. G.

    1984-01-01

    Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.

  12. A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

    To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

  13. Risk of DDT residue in maize consumed by infants as complementary diet in southwest Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Mekonen, Seblework; Lachat, Carl; Ambelu, Argaw; Steurbaut, Walter; Kolsteren, Patrick; Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Wondafrash, Mekitie; Houbraken, Michael; Spanoghe, Pieter

    2015-04-01

    Infants in Ethiopia are consuming food items such as maize as a complementary diet. However, this may expose infants to toxic contaminants like DDT. Maize samples were collected from the households visited during a consumption survey and from markets in Jimma zone, southwestern Ethiopia. The residues of total DDT and its metabolites were analyzed using the Quick, Easy, Cheap, Effective, Rugged and Safe (QuEChERS) method combined with dispersive solid phase extraction cleanup (d-SPE). Deterministic and probabilistic methods of analysis were applied to determine the consumer exposure of infants to total DDT. The results from the exposure assessment were compared with the health based guidance value in this case the provisional tolerable daily intake (PTDI). All maize samples (n=127) were contaminated by DDT, with a mean concentration of 1.770 mg/kg, which was far above the maximum residue limit (MRL). The mean and 97.5 percentile (P 97.5) estimated daily intake of total DDT for consumers were respectively 0.011 and 0.309 mg/kg bw/day for deterministic and 0.011 and 0.083 mg/kg bw/day for probabilistic exposure assessment. For total infant population (consumers and non-consumers), the 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake were 0.265 and 0.032 mg/kg bw/day from the deterministic and probabilistic exposure assessments, respectively. Health risk estimation revealed that, the mean and 97.5 percentile for consumers, and 97.5 percentile estimated daily intake of total DDT for total population were above the PTDI. Therefore, in Ethiopia, the use of maize as complementary food for infants may pose a health risk due to DDT residue. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  15. The Effect of Forest Management Strategy on Carbon Storage and Revenue in Western Washington: A Probabilistic Simulation of Tradeoffs.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Paul W; Cullen, Alison C; Ettl, Gregory J

    2017-01-01

    The objectives of this study are to understand tradeoffs between forest carbon and timber values, and evaluate the impact of uncertainty in improved forest management (IFM) carbon offset projects to improve forest management decisions. The study uses probabilistic simulation of uncertainty in financial risk for three management scenarios (clearcutting in 45- and 65-year rotations and no harvest) under three carbon price schemes (historic voluntary market prices, cap and trade, and carbon prices set to equal net present value (NPV) from timber-oriented management). Uncertainty is modeled for value and amount of carbon credits and wood products, the accuracy of forest growth model forecasts, and four other variables relevant to American Carbon Registry methodology. Calculations use forest inventory data from a 1,740 ha forest in western Washington State, using the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model. Sensitivity analysis shows that FVS model uncertainty contributes more than 70% to overall NPV variance, followed in importance by variability in inventory sample (3-14%), and short-term prices for timber products (8%), while variability in carbon credit price has little influence (1.1%). At regional average land-holding costs, a no-harvest management scenario would become revenue-positive at a carbon credit break-point price of $14.17/Mg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). IFM carbon projects are associated with a greater chance of both large payouts and large losses to landowners. These results inform policymakers and forest owners of the carbon credit price necessary for IFM approaches to equal or better the business-as-usual strategy, while highlighting the magnitude of financial risk and reward through probabilistic simulation. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Anemia risk in relation to lead exposure in lead-related manufacturing.

    PubMed

    Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Chung, Shun-Hui; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Chen, Wei-Yu; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; You, Su-Han; Liao, Chung-Min

    2017-05-05

    Lead-exposed workers may suffer adverse health effects under the currently regulated blood lead (BPb) levels. However, a probabilistic assessment about lead exposure-associated anemia risk is lacking. The goal of this study was to examine the association between lead exposure and anemia risk among factory workers in Taiwan. We first collated BPb and indicators of hematopoietic function data via health examination records that included 533 male and 218 female lead-exposed workers between 2012 and 2014. We used benchmark dose (BMD) modeling to estimate the critical effect doses for detection of abnormal indicators. A risk-based probabilistic model was used to characterize the potential hazard of lead poisoning for job-specific workers by hazard index (HI). We applied Bayesian decision analysis to determine whether BMD could be implicated as a suitable BPb standard. Our results indicated that HI for total lead-exposed workers was 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.50-1.26) with risk occurrence probability of 11.1%. The abnormal risk of anemia indicators for male and female workers could be reduced, respectively, by 67-77% and 86-95% by adopting the suggested BPb standards of 25 and 15 μg/dL. We conclude that cumulative exposure to lead in the workplace was significantly associated with anemia risk. This study suggests that current BPb standard needs to be better understood for the application of lead-exposed population protection in different scenarios to provide a novel standard for health management. Low-level lead exposure risk is an occupational and public health problem that should be paid more attention.

  17. Aquatic predicted no-effect concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their ecological risks in surface seawater of Liaodong Bay, China.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ying; Wang, Juying; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Zhen; Cong, Yi; Yao, Ziwei; Lin, Zhongsheng

    2016-06-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), a class of ubiquitous pollutants in marine environments, exhibit moderate to high adverse effects on aquatic organisms and humans. However, the lack of PAH toxicity data for aquatic organism has limited evaluation of their ecological risks. In the present study, aquatic predicted no-effect concentrations (PNECs) of 16 priority PAHs were derived based on species sensitivity distribution models, and their probabilistic ecological risks in seawater of Liaodong Bay, Bohai Sea, China, were assessed. A quantitative structure-activity relationship method was adopted to achieve the predicted chronic toxicity data for the PNEC derivation. Good agreement for aquatic PNECs of 8 PAHs based on predicted and experimental chronic toxicity data was observed (R(2)  = 0.746), and the calculated PNECs ranged from 0.011 µg/L to 205.3 µg/L. A significant log-linear relationship also existed between the octanol-water partition coefficient and PNECs derived from experimental toxicity data (R(2)  = 0.757). A similar order of ecological risks for the 16 PAH species in seawater of Liaodong Bay was found by probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve methods. The individual high ecological risk of benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and benz[a]anthracene needs to be determined. The combined ecological risk of PAHs in seawater of Liaodong Bay calculated by the joint probability curve method was 13.9%, indicating a high risk as a result of co-exposure to PAHs. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:1587-1593. © 2015 SETAC. © 2015 SETAC.

  18. The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

  19. Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) Risk Analysis Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thigpen, Eric B.; Boyer, Roger L.; Stewart, Michael A.; Fougere, Pete

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) directorate at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) has applied its knowledge and experience with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to projects in industries ranging from spacecraft to nuclear power plants. PRA is a comprehensive and structured process for analyzing risk in complex engineered systems and/or processes. The PRA process enables the user to identify potential risk contributors such as, hardware and software failure, human error, and external events. Recent developments in the oil and gas industry have presented opportunities for NASA to lend their PRA expertise to both ongoing and developmental projects within the industry. This paper provides an overview of the PRA process and demonstrates how this process was applied in estimating the probability that a Mobile Offshore Drilling Unit (MODU) operating in the Gulf of Mexico and equipped with a generically configured Dynamic Positioning System (DPS) loses location and needs to initiate an emergency disconnect. The PRA described in this paper is intended to be generic such that the vessel meets the general requirements of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) Maritime Safety Committee (MSC)/Circ. 645 Class 3 dynamically positioned vessel. The results of this analysis are not intended to be applied to any specific drilling vessel, although provisions were made to allow the analysis to be configured to a specific vessel if required.

  20. Health risk assessment of ochratoxin A for all age-sex strata in a market economy

    PubMed Central

    Kuiper-Goodman, T.; Hilts, C.; Billiard, S.M.; Kiparissis, Y.; Richard, I.D.K.; Hayward, S.

    2009-01-01

    In order to manage risk of ochratoxin A (OTA) in foods, we re-evaluated the tolerable daily intake (TDI), derived the negligible cancer risk intake (NCRI), and conducted a probabilistic risk assessment. A new approach was developed to derive ‘usual’ probabilistic exposure in the presence of highly variable occurrence data, such as encountered with low levels of OTA. Canadian occurrence data were used for various raw food commodities or finished foods and were combined with US Department of Agriculture (USDA) food consumption data, which included data on infants and young children. Both variability and uncertainty in input data were considered in the resulting exposure estimates for various age/sex strata. Most people were exposed to OTA on a daily basis. Mean adjusted exposures for all age-sex groups were generally below the NCRI of 4ng OTA kg bw−1, except for 1–4-year-olds as a result of their lower body weight. For children, the major contributors of OTA were wheat-based foods followed by oats, rice, and raisins. Beer, coffee, and wine also contributed to total OTA exposure in older individuals. Predicted exposure to OTA decreased when European Commission maximum limits were applied to the occurrence data. The impact on risk for regular eaters of specific commodities was also examined. PMID:20013446

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