Fast, Nonlinear, Fully Probabilistic Inversion of Large Geophysical Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, A.; Shahraeeni, M.; Trampert, J.; Meier, U.; Cho, G.

2010-12-01

Almost all Geophysical inverse problems are in reality nonlinear. Fully nonlinear inversion including non-approximated physics, and solving for probability distribution functions (pdf’s) that describe the solution uncertainty, generally requires sampling-based Monte-Carlo style methods that are computationally intractable in most large problems. In order to solve such problems, physical relationships are usually linearized leading to efficiently-solved, (possibly iterated) linear inverse problems. However, it is well known that linearization can lead to erroneous solutions, and in particular to overly optimistic uncertainty estimates. What is needed across many Geophysical disciplines is a method to invert large inverse problems (or potentially tens of thousands of small inverse problems) fully probabilistically and without linearization. This talk shows how very large nonlinear inverse problems can be solved fully probabilistically and incorporating any available prior information using mixture density networks (driven by neural network banks), provided the problem can be decomposed into many small inverse problems. In this talk I will explain the methodology, compare multi-dimensional pdf inversion results to full Monte Carlo solutions, and illustrate the method with two applications: first, inverting surface wave group and phase velocities for a fully-probabilistic global tomography model of the Earth’s crust and mantle, and second inverting industrial 3D seismic data for petrophysical properties throughout and around a subsurface hydrocarbon reservoir. The latter problem is typically decomposed into 104 to 105 individual inverse problems, each solved fully probabilistically and without linearization. The results in both cases are sufficiently close to the Monte Carlo solution to exhibit realistic uncertainty, multimodality and bias. This provides far greater confidence in the results, and in decisions made on their basis.

Effective Learning of Probabilistic Models for Clinical Predictions from Longitudinal Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Shuo

2017-01-01

With the expeditious advancement of information technologies, health-related data presented unprecedented potentials for medical and health discoveries but at the same time significant challenges for machine learning techniques both in terms of size and complexity. Those challenges include: the structured data with various storage formats and…

Order Under Uncertainty: Robust Differential Expression Analysis Using Probabilistic Models for Pseudotime Inference

PubMed Central

Campbell, Kieran R.

2016-01-01

Single cell gene expression profiling can be used to quantify transcriptional dynamics in temporal processes, such as cell differentiation, using computational methods to label each cell with a ‘pseudotime’ where true time series experimentation is too difficult to perform. However, owing to the high variability in gene expression between individual cells, there is an inherent uncertainty in the precise temporal ordering of the cells. Pre-existing methods for pseudotime estimation have predominantly given point estimates precluding a rigorous analysis of the implications of uncertainty. We use probabilistic modelling techniques to quantify pseudotime uncertainty and propagate this into downstream differential expression analysis. We demonstrate that reliance on a point estimate of pseudotime can lead to inflated false discovery rates and that probabilistic approaches provide greater robustness and measures of the temporal resolution that can be obtained from pseudotime inference. PMID:27870852

Inherent limitations of probabilistic models for protein-DNA binding specificity

PubMed Central

Ruan, Shuxiang

2017-01-01

The specificities of transcription factors are most commonly represented with probabilistic models. These models provide a probability for each base occurring at each position within the binding site and the positions are assumed to contribute independently. The model is simple and intuitive and is the basis for many motif discovery algorithms. However, the model also has inherent limitations that prevent it from accurately representing true binding probabilities, especially for the highest affinity sites under conditions of high protein concentration. The limitations are not due to the assumption of independence between positions but rather are caused by the non-linear relationship between binding affinity and binding probability and the fact that independent normalization at each position skews the site probabilities. Generally probabilistic models are reasonably good approximations, but new high-throughput methods allow for biophysical models with increased accuracy that should be used whenever possible. PMID:28686588

Probabilistic Finite Element Analysis & Design Optimization for Structural Designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deivanayagam, Arumugam

This study focuses on implementing probabilistic nature of material properties (Kevlar® 49) to the existing deterministic finite element analysis (FEA) of fabric based engine containment system through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) and implementation of probabilistic analysis in engineering designs through Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO). First, the emphasis is on experimental data analysis focusing on probabilistic distribution models which characterize the randomness associated with the experimental data. The material properties of Kevlar® 49 are modeled using experimental data analysis and implemented along with an existing spiral modeling scheme (SMS) and user defined constitutive model (UMAT) for fabric based engine containment simulations in LS-DYNA. MCS of the model are performed to observe the failure pattern and exit velocities of the models. Then the solutions are compared with NASA experimental tests and deterministic results. MCS with probabilistic material data give a good prospective on results rather than a single deterministic simulation results. The next part of research is to implement the probabilistic material properties in engineering designs. The main aim of structural design is to obtain optimal solutions. In any case, in a deterministic optimization problem even though the structures are cost effective, it becomes highly unreliable if the uncertainty that may be associated with the system (material properties, loading etc.) is not represented or considered in the solution process. Reliable and optimal solution can be obtained by performing reliability optimization along with the deterministic optimization, which is RBDO. In RBDO problem formulation, in addition to structural performance constraints, reliability constraints are also considered. This part of research starts with introduction to reliability analysis such as first order reliability analysis, second order reliability analysis followed by simulation technique that are performed to obtain probability of failure and reliability of structures. Next, decoupled RBDO procedure is proposed with a new reliability analysis formulation with sensitivity analysis, which is performed to remove the highly reliable constraints in the RBDO, thereby reducing the computational time and function evaluations. Followed by implementation of the reliability analysis concepts and RBDO in finite element 2D truss problems and a planar beam problem are presented and discussed.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Theory Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burnside, O. H.

1985-01-01

The objective of the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project is to develop analysis techniques and computer programs for predicting the probabilistic response of critical structural components for current and future space propulsion systems. This technology will play a central role in establishing system performance and durability. The first year's technical activity is concentrating on probabilistic finite element formulation strategy and code development. Work is also in progress to survey critical materials and space shuttle mian engine components. The probabilistic finite element computer program NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) is being developed. The final probabilistic code will have, in the general case, the capability of performing nonlinear dynamic of stochastic structures. It is the goal of the approximate methods effort to increase problem solving efficiency relative to finite element methods by using energy methods to generate trial solutions which satisfy the structural boundary conditions. These approximate methods will be less computer intensive relative to the finite element approach.

Probabilistic numerical methods for PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockayne, Jon; Oates, Chris; Sullivan, Tim; Girolami, Mark

2017-06-01

This paper develops meshless methods for probabilistically describing discretisation error in the numerical solution of partial differential equations. This construction enables the solution of Bayesian inverse problems while accounting for the impact of the discretisation of the forward problem. In particular, this drives statistical inferences to be more conservative in the presence of significant solver error. Theoretical results are presented describing rates of convergence for the posteriors in both the forward and inverse problems. This method is tested on a challenging inverse problem with a nonlinear forward model.

Probabilistic Phonotactics as a Cue for Recognizing Spoken Cantonese Words in Speech

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yip, Michael C. W.

2017-01-01

Previous experimental psycholinguistic studies suggested that the probabilistic phonotactics information might likely to hint the locations of word boundaries in continuous speech and hence posed an interesting solution to the empirical question on how we recognize/segment individual spoken word in speech. We investigated this issue by using…

Probabilistic structural analysis using a general purpose finite element program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riha, D. S.; Millwater, H. R.; Thacker, B. H.

1992-07-01

This paper presents an accurate and efficient method to predict the probabilistic response for structural response quantities, such as stress, displacement, natural frequencies, and buckling loads, by combining the capabilities of MSC/NASTRAN, including design sensitivity analysis and fast probability integration. Two probabilistic structural analysis examples have been performed and verified by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation of the analytical solution. The first example consists of a cantilevered plate with several point loads. The second example is a probabilistic buckling analysis of a simply supported composite plate under in-plane loading. The coupling of MSC/NASTRAN and fast probability integration is shown to be orders of magnitude more efficient than Monte Carlo simulation with excellent accuracy.

Predictive coarse-graining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöberl, Markus; Zabaras, Nicholas; Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios

2017-03-01

We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method [1] and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

Predictive coarse-graining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schöberl, Markus, E-mail: m.schoeberl@tum.de; Zabaras, Nicholas; Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Notre Dame, 365 Fitzpatrick Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556

We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extendedmore » to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo – Expectation–Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.« less

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system structural components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.

1987-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods for select space propulsion system structural components (PSAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cruse, T. A.; Burnside, O. H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Polch, E. Z.; Dias, J. B.

1988-01-01

The objective is the development of several modular structural analysis packages capable of predicting the probabilistic response distribution for key structural variables such as maximum stress, natural frequencies, transient response, etc. The structural analysis packages are to include stochastic modeling of loads, material properties, geometry (tolerances), and boundary conditions. The solution is to be in terms of the cumulative probability of exceedance distribution (CDF) and confidence bounds. Two methods of probability modeling are to be included as well as three types of structural models - probabilistic finite-element method (PFEM); probabilistic approximate analysis methods (PAAM); and probabilistic boundary element methods (PBEM). The purpose in doing probabilistic structural analysis is to provide the designer with a more realistic ability to assess the importance of uncertainty in the response of a high performance structure. Probabilistic Structural Analysis Method (PSAM) tools will estimate structural safety and reliability, while providing the engineer with information on the confidence that should be given to the predicted behavior. Perhaps most critically, the PSAM results will directly provide information on the sensitivity of the design response to those variables which are seen to be uncertain.

Efficient Modeling and Active Learning Discovery of Biological Responses

PubMed Central

Naik, Armaghan W.; Kangas, Joshua D.; Langmead, Christopher J.; Murphy, Robert F.

2013-01-01

High throughput and high content screening involve determination of the effect of many compounds on a given target. As currently practiced, screening for each new target typically makes little use of information from screens of prior targets. Further, choices of compounds to advance to drug development are made without significant screening against off-target effects. The overall drug development process could be made more effective, as well as less expensive and time consuming, if potential effects of all compounds on all possible targets could be considered, yet the cost of such full experimentation would be prohibitive. In this paper, we describe a potential solution: probabilistic models that can be used to predict results for unmeasured combinations, and active learning algorithms for efficiently selecting which experiments to perform in order to build those models and determining when to stop. Using simulated and experimental data, we show that our approaches can produce powerful predictive models without exhaustive experimentation and can learn them much faster than by selecting experiments at random. PMID:24358322

An Information Theoretic Approach for Measuring Data Discovery and Utilization During Analytical and Decision Making Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-31

and make the expected decision outcomes. The scenario is based around a scripted storyboard where an organized crime network is operating in a city to...interdicted by law enforcement to disrupt the network. The scenario storyboard was used to develop a probabilistic vehicle traffic model in order to

Building Scalable Knowledge Graphs for Earth Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramachandran, Rahul; Maskey, Manil; Gatlin, Patrick; Zhang, Jia; Duan, Xiaoyi; Miller, J. J.; Bugbee, Kaylin; Christopher, Sundar; Freitag, Brian

2017-01-01

Knowledge Graphs link key entities in a specific domain with other entities via relationships. From these relationships, researchers can query knowledge graphs for probabilistic recommendations to infer new knowledge. Scientific papers are an untapped resource which knowledge graphs could leverage to accelerate research discovery. Goal: Develop an end-to-end (semi) automated methodology for constructing Knowledge Graphs for Earth Science.

Probabilistic structural mechanics research for parallel processing computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sues, Robert H.; Chen, Heh-Chyun; Twisdale, Lawrence A.; Martin, William R.

1991-01-01

Aerospace structures and spacecraft are a complex assemblage of structural components that are subjected to a variety of complex, cyclic, and transient loading conditions. Significant modeling uncertainties are present in these structures, in addition to the inherent randomness of material properties and loads. To properly account for these uncertainties in evaluating and assessing the reliability of these components and structures, probabilistic structural mechanics (PSM) procedures must be used. Much research has focused on basic theory development and the development of approximate analytic solution methods in random vibrations and structural reliability. Practical application of PSM methods was hampered by their computationally intense nature. Solution of PSM problems requires repeated analyses of structures that are often large, and exhibit nonlinear and/or dynamic response behavior. These methods are all inherently parallel and ideally suited to implementation on parallel processing computers. New hardware architectures and innovative control software and solution methodologies are needed to make solution of large scale PSM problems practical.

Compositional Solution Space Quantification for Probabilistic Software Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Borges, Mateus; Pasareanu, Corina S.; Filieri, Antonio; d'Amorim, Marcelo; Visser, Willem

2014-01-01

Probabilistic software analysis aims at quantifying how likely a target event is to occur during program execution. Current approaches rely on symbolic execution to identify the conditions to reach the target event and try to quantify the fraction of the input domain satisfying these conditions. Precise quantification is usually limited to linear constraints, while only approximate solutions can be provided in general through statistical approaches. However, statistical approaches may fail to converge to an acceptable accuracy within a reasonable time. We present a compositional statistical approach for the efficient quantification of solution spaces for arbitrarily complex constraints over bounded floating-point domains. The approach leverages interval constraint propagation to improve the accuracy of the estimation by focusing the sampling on the regions of the input domain containing the sought solutions. Preliminary experiments show significant improvement on previous approaches both in results accuracy and analysis time.

An approximate methods approach to probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclung, R. C.; Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Thacker, B. H.; Burnside, O. H.

1989-01-01

A probabilistic structural analysis method (PSAM) is described which makes an approximate calculation of the structural response of a system, including the associated probabilistic distributions, with minimal computation time and cost, based on a simplified representation of the geometry, loads, and material. The method employs the fast probability integration (FPI) algorithm of Wu and Wirsching. Typical solution strategies are illustrated by formulations for a representative critical component chosen from the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) as part of a major NASA-sponsored program on PSAM. Typical results are presented to demonstrate the role of the methodology in engineering design and analysis.

Perspective: Stochastic magnetic devices for cognitive computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Kaushik; Sengupta, Abhronil; Shim, Yong

2018-06-01

Stochastic switching of nanomagnets can potentially enable probabilistic cognitive hardware consisting of noisy neural and synaptic components. Furthermore, computational paradigms inspired from the Ising computing model require stochasticity for achieving near-optimality in solutions to various types of combinatorial optimization problems such as the Graph Coloring Problem or the Travelling Salesman Problem. Achieving optimal solutions in such problems are computationally exhaustive and requires natural annealing to arrive at the near-optimal solutions. Stochastic switching of devices also finds use in applications involving Deep Belief Networks and Bayesian Inference. In this article, we provide a multi-disciplinary perspective across the stack of devices, circuits, and algorithms to illustrate how the stochastic switching dynamics of spintronic devices in the presence of thermal noise can provide a direct mapping to the computational units of such probabilistic intelligent systems.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Chamis, Christos C.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Stefko, George L.; Riha, David S.; Thacker, Ben H.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Mital, Subodh K.

2010-01-01

NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is a general-purpose, probabilistic analysis program that computes probability of failure and probabilistic sensitivity measures of engineered systems. Because NASA/NESSUS uses highly computationally efficient and accurate analysis techniques, probabilistic solutions can be obtained even for extremely large and complex models. Once the probabilistic response is quantified, the results can be used to support risk-informed decisions regarding reliability for safety-critical and one-of-a-kind systems, as well as for maintaining a level of quality while reducing manufacturing costs for larger-quantity products. NASA/NESSUS has been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems in aerospace, gas turbine engines, biomechanics, pipelines, defense, weaponry, and infrastructure. This program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general-purpose structural analysis and lifting methods to compute the probabilistic response and reliability of engineered structures. Uncertainties in load, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions, and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include non-linear finite-element methods, heat-transfer analysis, polymer/ceramic matrix composite analysis, monolithic (conventional metallic) materials life-prediction methodologies, boundary element methods, and user-written subroutines. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. NASA/NESSUS 6.2c is structured in a modular format with 15 elements.

Bayesian Orbit Computation Tools for Objects on Geocentric Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, J.; Granvik, M.; Muinonen, K.; Oszkiewicz, D.

2013-08-01

We consider the space-debris orbital inversion problem via the concept of Bayesian inference. The methodology has been put forward for the orbital analysis of solar system small bodies in early 1990's [7] and results in a full solution of the statistical inverse problem given in terms of a posteriori probability density function (PDF) for the orbital parameters. We demonstrate the applicability of our statistical orbital analysis software to Earth orbiting objects, both using well-established Monte Carlo (MC) techniques (for a review, see e.g. [13] as well as recently developed Markov-chain MC (MCMC) techniques (e.g., [9]). In particular, we exploit the novel virtual observation MCMC method [8], which is based on the characterization of the phase-space volume of orbital solutions before the actual MCMC sampling. Our statistical methods and the resulting PDFs immediately enable probabilistic impact predictions to be carried out. Furthermore, this can be readily done also for very sparse data sets and data sets of poor quality - providing that some a priori information on the observational uncertainty is available. For asteroids, impact probabilities with the Earth from the discovery night onwards have been provided, e.g., by [11] and [10], the latter study includes the sampling of the observational-error standard deviation as a random variable.

Spontaneous Discovery and Use of Categorical Structure

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-02-15

defaults (e.g., 4 Wittgenstein , 1953; Rosch, 1975, 1977). In a second set of study time experiments, we have begun to extend this procedure to investigate...Psychological Review, 84, 327-352. Wittgenstein , L. (1953). Philosophical investigations. Oxford: Blackwell. 25 Footnotes This research was supported...point, because the features of natural categories are generally considered to be probabilistic rather than deterministic ( Wittgenstein , 1953; Rosch

a Generic Probabilistic Model and a Hierarchical Solution for Sensor Localization in Noisy and Restricted Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, S.; Yuan, X.

2016-06-01

A generic probabilistic model, under fundamental Bayes' rule and Markov assumption, is introduced to integrate the process of mobile platform localization with optical sensors. And based on it, three relative independent solutions, bundle adjustment, Kalman filtering and particle filtering are deduced under different and additional restrictions. We want to prove that first, Kalman filtering, may be a better initial-value supplier for bundle adjustment than traditional relative orientation in irregular strips and networks or failed tie-point extraction. Second, in high noisy conditions, particle filtering can act as a bridge for gap binding when a large number of gross errors fail a Kalman filtering or a bundle adjustment. Third, both filtering methods, which help reduce the error propagation and eliminate gross errors, guarantee a global and static bundle adjustment, who requires the strictest initial values and control conditions. The main innovation is about the integrated processing of stochastic errors and gross errors in sensor observations, and the integration of the three most used solutions, bundle adjustment, Kalman filtering and particle filtering into a generic probabilistic localization model. The tests in noisy and restricted situations are designed and examined to prove them.

Calculating Probabilistic Distance to Solution in a Complex Problem Solving Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sudol, Leigh Ann; Rivers, Kelly; Harris, Thomas K.

2012-01-01

In complex problem solving domains, correct solutions are often comprised of a combination of individual components. Students usually go through several attempts, each attempt reflecting an individual solution state that can be observed during practice. Classic metrics to measure student performance over time rely on counting the number of…

Discovery of four recessive developmental disorders using probabilistic genotype and phenotype matching among 4,125 families

PubMed Central

Ansari, Morad; Balasubramanian, Meena; Blyth, Moira; Brady, Angela F.; Clayton, Stephen; Cole, Trevor; Deshpande, Charu; Fitzgerald, Tomas W.; Foulds, Nicola; Francis, Richard; Gabriel, George; Gerety, Sebastian S.; Goodship, Judith; Hobson, Emma; Jones, Wendy D.; Joss, Shelagh; King, Daniel; Klena, Nikolai; Kumar, Ajith; Lees, Melissa; Lelliott, Chris; Lord, Jenny; McMullan, Dominic; O'Regan, Mary; Osio, Deborah; Piombo, Virginia; Prigmore, Elena; Rajan, Diana; Rosser, Elisabeth; Sifrim, Alejandro; Smith, Audrey; Swaminathan, Ganesh J.; Turnpenny, Peter; Whitworth, James; Wright, Caroline F.; Firth, Helen V.; Barrett, Jeffrey C.; Lo, Cecilia W.; FitzPatrick, David R.; Hurles, Matthew E.

2018-01-01

Discovery of most autosomal recessive disease genes has involved analysis of large, often consanguineous, multiplex families or small cohorts of unrelated individuals with a well-defined clinical condition. Discovery of novel dominant causes of rare, genetically heterogenous developmental disorders has been revolutionized by exome analysis of large cohorts of phenotypically diverse parent-offspring trios 1,2. Here we analysed 4,125 families with diverse, rare, genetically heterogeneous developmental disorders and identified four novel autosomal recessive disorders. These four disorders were identified by integrating Mendelian filtering (identifying probands with rare biallelic putatively damaging variants in the same gene) with statistical assessments of (i) the likelihood of sampling the observed genotypes from the general population, and (ii) the phenotypic similarity of patients with the same recessive candidate gene. This new paradigm promises to catalyse discovery of novel recessive disorders, especially those with less consistent or nonspecific clinical presentations, and those caused predominantly by compound heterozygous genotypes. PMID:26437029

Discovery of four recessive developmental disorders using probabilistic genotype and phenotype matching among 4,125 families.

PubMed

Akawi, Nadia; McRae, Jeremy; Ansari, Morad; Balasubramanian, Meena; Blyth, Moira; Brady, Angela F; Clayton, Stephen; Cole, Trevor; Deshpande, Charu; Fitzgerald, Tomas W; Foulds, Nicola; Francis, Richard; Gabriel, George; Gerety, Sebastian S; Goodship, Judith; Hobson, Emma; Jones, Wendy D; Joss, Shelagh; King, Daniel; Klena, Nikolai; Kumar, Ajith; Lees, Melissa; Lelliott, Chris; Lord, Jenny; McMullan, Dominic; O'Regan, Mary; Osio, Deborah; Piombo, Virginia; Prigmore, Elena; Rajan, Diana; Rosser, Elisabeth; Sifrim, Alejandro; Smith, Audrey; Swaminathan, Ganesh J; Turnpenny, Peter; Whitworth, James; Wright, Caroline F; Firth, Helen V; Barrett, Jeffrey C; Lo, Cecilia W; FitzPatrick, David R; Hurles, Matthew E

2015-11-01

Discovery of most autosomal recessive disease-associated genes has involved analysis of large, often consanguineous multiplex families or small cohorts of unrelated individuals with a well-defined clinical condition. Discovery of new dominant causes of rare, genetically heterogeneous developmental disorders has been revolutionized by exome analysis of large cohorts of phenotypically diverse parent-offspring trios. Here we analyzed 4,125 families with diverse, rare and genetically heterogeneous developmental disorders and identified four new autosomal recessive disorders. These four disorders were identified by integrating Mendelian filtering (selecting probands with rare, biallelic and putatively damaging variants in the same gene) with statistical assessments of (i) the likelihood of sampling the observed genotypes from the general population and (ii) the phenotypic similarity of patients with recessive variants in the same candidate gene. This new paradigm promises to catalyze the discovery of novel recessive disorders, especially those with less consistent or nonspecific clinical presentations and those caused predominantly by compound heterozygous genotypes.

Probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Fossum, A. F.

1990-01-01

A probabilistic finite element program is used to perform probabilistic analysis of a materially nonlinear structure. The program used in this study is NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structure Under Stress), under development at Southwest Research Institute. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the radial stress of a thick-walled cylinder under internal pressure is computed and compared with the analytical solution. In addition, sensitivity factors showing the relative importance of the input random variables are calculated. Significant plasticity is present in this problem and has a pronounced effect on the probabilistic results. The random input variables are the material yield stress and internal pressure with Weibull and normal distributions, respectively. The results verify the ability of NESSUS to compute the CDF and sensitivity factors of a materially nonlinear structure. In addition, the ability of the Advanced Mean Value (AMV) procedure to assess the probabilistic behavior of structures which exhibit a highly nonlinear response is shown. Thus, the AMV procedure can be applied with confidence to other structures which exhibit nonlinear behavior.

Dynamic Probabilistic Instability of Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2009-01-01

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties in that order.

Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

2013-01-01

The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

Probabilistic learning of nonlinear dynamical systems using sequential Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schön, Thomas B.; Svensson, Andreas; Murray, Lawrence; Lindsten, Fredrik

2018-05-01

Probabilistic modeling provides the capability to represent and manipulate uncertainty in data, models, predictions and decisions. We are concerned with the problem of learning probabilistic models of dynamical systems from measured data. Specifically, we consider learning of probabilistic nonlinear state-space models. There is no closed-form solution available for this problem, implying that we are forced to use approximations. In this tutorial we will provide a self-contained introduction to one of the state-of-the-art methods-the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm-which has proven to offer a practical approximation. This is a Monte Carlo based method, where the particle filter is used to guide a Markov chain Monte Carlo method through the parameter space. One of the key merits of the particle Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is that it is guaranteed to converge to the "true solution" under mild assumptions, despite being based on a particle filter with only a finite number of particles. We will also provide a motivating numerical example illustrating the method using a modeling language tailored for sequential Monte Carlo methods. The intention of modeling languages of this kind is to open up the power of sophisticated Monte Carlo methods-including particle Metropolis-Hastings-to a large group of users without requiring them to know all the underlying mathematical details.

Overview of the SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division Activities and Technical Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL (Reliability, Maintainability, Supportability, and Logistics) Division activities include identification and fulfillment of joint industry, government, and academia needs for development and implementation of RMSL technologies. Four Projects in the Probabilistic Methods area and two in the area of RMSL have been identified. These are: (1) Evaluation of Probabilistic Technology - progress has been made toward the selection of probabilistic application cases. Future effort will focus on assessment of multiple probabilistic softwares in solving selected engineering problems using probabilistic methods. Relevance to Industry & Government - Case studies of typical problems encountering uncertainties, results of solutions to these problems run by different codes, and recommendations on which code is applicable for what problems; (2) Probabilistic Input Preparation - progress has been made in identifying problem cases such as those with no data, little data and sufficient data. Future effort will focus on developing guidelines for preparing input for probabilistic analysis, especially with no or little data. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we get bogged down thinking we need a lot of data before we can quantify uncertainties. Not True. There are ways to do credible probabilistic analysis with little data; (3) Probabilistic Reliability - probabilistic reliability literature search has been completed along with what differentiates it from statistical reliability. Work on computation of reliability based on quantification of uncertainties in primitive variables is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Correct reliability computations both at the component and system level are needed so one can design an item based on its expected usage and life span; (4) Real World Applications of Probabilistic Methods (PM) - A draft of volume 1 comprising aerospace applications has been released. Volume 2, a compilation of real world applications of probabilistic methods with essential information demonstrating application type and timehost savings by the use of probabilistic methods for generic applications is in progress. Relevance to Industry & Government - Too often, we say, 'The Proof is in the Pudding'. With help from many contributors, we hope to produce such a document. Problem is - not too many people are coming forward due to proprietary nature. So, we are asking to document only minimum information including problem description, what method used, did it result in any savings, and how much?; (5) Software Reliability - software reliability concept, program, implementation, guidelines, and standards are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - software reliability is a complex issue that must be understood & addressed in all facets of business in industry, government, and other institutions. We address issues, concepts, ways to implement solutions, and guidelines for maximizing software reliability; (6) Maintainability Standards - maintainability/serviceability industry standard/guidelines and industry best practices and methodologies used in performing maintainability/ serviceability tasks are being documented. Relevance to Industry & Government - Any industry or government process, project, and/or tool must be maintained and serviced to realize the life and performance it was designed for. We address issues and develop guidelines for optimum performance & life.

A comparison of numerical solutions of partial differential equations with probabilistic and possibilistic parameters for the quantification of uncertainty in subsurface solute transport.

PubMed

Zhang, Kejiang; Achari, Gopal; Li, Hua

2009-11-03

Traditionally, uncertainty in parameters are represented as probabilistic distributions and incorporated into groundwater flow and contaminant transport models. With the advent of newer uncertainty theories, it is now understood that stochastic methods cannot properly represent non random uncertainties. In the groundwater flow and contaminant transport equations, uncertainty in some parameters may be random, whereas those of others may be non random. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-stochastic partial differential equation (FSPDE) model to simulate conditions where both random and non random uncertainties are involved in groundwater flow and solute transport. Three potential solution techniques namely, (a) transforming a probability distribution to a possibility distribution (Method I) then a FSPDE becomes a fuzzy partial differential equation (FPDE), (b) transforming a possibility distribution to a probability distribution (Method II) and then a FSPDE becomes a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE), and (c) the combination of Monte Carlo methods and FPDE solution techniques (Method III) are proposed and compared. The effects of these three methods on the predictive results are investigated by using two case studies. The results show that the predictions obtained from Method II is a specific case of that got from Method I. When an exact probabilistic result is needed, Method II is suggested. As the loss or gain of information during a probability-possibility (or vice versa) transformation cannot be quantified, their influences on the predictive results is not known. Thus, Method III should probably be preferred for risk assessments.

Probabilistic analysis of the efficiency of the damping devices against nuclear fuel container falling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Králik, Juraj

2017-07-01

The paper presents the probabilistic and sensitivity analysis of the efficiency of the damping devices cover of nuclear power plant under impact of the container of nuclear fuel of type TK C30 drop. The finite element idealization of nuclear power plant structure is used in space. The steel pipe damper system is proposed for dissipation of the kinetic energy of the container free fall. The experimental results of the shock-damper basic element behavior under impact loads are presented. The Newmark integration method is used for solution of the dynamic equations. The sensitivity and probabilistic analysis of damping devices was realized in the AntHILL and ANSYS software.

Mind as Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinstry, Chris

The present article describes a possible method for the automatic discovery of a universal human semantic-affective hyperspatial approximation of the human subcognitive substrate - the associative network which French (1990) asserts is the ultimate foundation of the human ability to pass the Turing Test - that does not require a machine to have direct human experience or a physical human body. This method involves automatic programming - such as Koza's genetic programming (1992) - guided in the discovery of the proposed universal hypergeometry by feedback from a Minimum Intelligent Signal Test or MIST (McKinstry, 1997) constructed from a very large number of human validated probabilistic propositions collected from a large population of Internet users. It will be argued that though a lifetime of human experience is required to pass a rigorous Turing Test, a probabilistic propositional approximation of this experience can be constructed via public participation on the Internet, and then used as a fitness function to direct the artificial evolution of a universal hypergeometry capable of classifying arbitrary propositions. A model of this hypergeometry will be presented; it predicts Miller's "Magical Number Seven" (1956) as the size of human short-term memory from fundamental hypergeometric properties. A system that can lead to the generation of novel propositions or "artificial thoughts" will also be described.

Probabilistic DHP adaptive critic for nonlinear stochastic control systems.

PubMed

Herzallah, Randa

2013-06-01

Following the recently developed algorithms for fully probabilistic control design for general dynamic stochastic systems (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996), this paper presents the solution to the probabilistic dual heuristic programming (DHP) adaptive critic method (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011) and randomized control algorithm for stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems. The purpose of the randomized control input design is to make the joint probability density function of the closed loop system as close as possible to a predetermined ideal joint probability density function. This paper completes the previous work (Herzallah & Káarnáy, 2011; Kárný, 1996) by formulating and solving the fully probabilistic control design problem on the more general case of nonlinear stochastic discrete time systems. A simulated example is used to demonstrate the use of the algorithm and encouraging results have been obtained. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solution NMR Spectroscopy in Target-Based Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Kang, Congbao

2017-08-23

Solution NMR spectroscopy is a powerful tool to study protein structures and dynamics under physiological conditions. This technique is particularly useful in target-based drug discovery projects as it provides protein-ligand binding information in solution. Accumulated studies have shown that NMR will play more and more important roles in multiple steps of the drug discovery process. In a fragment-based drug discovery process, ligand-observed and protein-observed NMR spectroscopy can be applied to screen fragments with low binding affinities. The screened fragments can be further optimized into drug-like molecules. In combination with other biophysical techniques, NMR will guide structure-based drug discovery. In this review, we describe the possible roles of NMR spectroscopy in drug discovery. We also illustrate the challenges encountered in the drug discovery process. We include several examples demonstrating the roles of NMR in target-based drug discoveries such as hit identification, ranking ligand binding affinities, and mapping the ligand binding site. We also speculate the possible roles of NMR in target engagement based on recent processes in in-cell NMR spectroscopy.

A multilevel probabilistic beam search algorithm for the shortest common supersequence problem.

PubMed

Gallardo, José E

2012-01-01

The shortest common supersequence problem is a classical problem with many applications in different fields such as planning, Artificial Intelligence and especially in Bioinformatics. Due to its NP-hardness, we can not expect to efficiently solve this problem using conventional exact techniques. This paper presents a heuristic to tackle this problem based on the use at different levels of a probabilistic variant of a classical heuristic known as Beam Search. The proposed algorithm is empirically analysed and compared to current approaches in the literature. Experiments show that it provides better quality solutions in a reasonable time for medium and large instances of the problem. For very large instances, our heuristic also provides better solutions, but required execution times may increase considerably.

Verification and Optimal Control of Context-Sensitive Probabilistic Boolean Networks Using Model Checking and Polynomial Optimization

PubMed Central

Hiraishi, Kunihiko

2014-01-01

One of the significant topics in systems biology is to develop control theory of gene regulatory networks (GRNs). In typical control of GRNs, expression of some genes is inhibited (activated) by manipulating external stimuli and expression of other genes. It is expected to apply control theory of GRNs to gene therapy technologies in the future. In this paper, a control method using a Boolean network (BN) is studied. A BN is widely used as a model of GRNs, and gene expression is expressed by a binary value (ON or OFF). In particular, a context-sensitive probabilistic Boolean network (CS-PBN), which is one of the extended models of BNs, is used. For CS-PBNs, the verification problem and the optimal control problem are considered. For the verification problem, a solution method using the probabilistic model checker PRISM is proposed. For the optimal control problem, a solution method using polynomial optimization is proposed. Finally, a numerical example on the WNT5A network, which is related to melanoma, is presented. The proposed methods provide us useful tools in control theory of GRNs. PMID:24587766

Bell-Boole Inequality: Nonlocality or Probabilistic Incompatibility of Random Variables?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2008-06-01

The main aim of this report is to inform the quantum information community about investigations on the problem of probabilistic compatibility of a family of random variables: a possibility to realize such a family on the basis of a single probability measure (to construct a single Kolmogorov probability space). These investigations were started hundred of years ago by J. Boole (who invented Boolean algebras). The complete solution of the problem was obtained by Soviet mathematician Vorobjev in 60th. Surprisingly probabilists and statisticians obtained inequalities for probabilities and correlations among which one can find the famous Bell’s inequality and its generalizations. Such inequalities appeared simply as constraints for probabilistic compatibility. In this framework one can not see a priori any link to such problems as nonlocality and “death of reality” which are typically linked to Bell’s type inequalities in physical literature. We analyze the difference between positions of mathematicians and quantum physicists. In particular, we found that one of the most reasonable explanations of probabilistic incompatibility is mixing in Bell’s type inequalities statistical data from a number of experiments performed under different experimental contexts.

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burbank, Scott; Allen, Andrew

2013-01-01

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

Problem Solving as Probabilistic Inference with Subgoaling: Explaining Human Successes and Pitfalls in the Tower of Hanoi

PubMed Central

Donnarumma, Francesco; Maisto, Domenico; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-01-01

How do humans and other animals face novel problems for which predefined solutions are not available? Human problem solving links to flexible reasoning and inference rather than to slow trial-and-error learning. It has received considerable attention since the early days of cognitive science, giving rise to well known cognitive architectures such as SOAR and ACT-R, but its computational and brain mechanisms remain incompletely known. Furthermore, it is still unclear whether problem solving is a “specialized” domain or module of cognition, in the sense that it requires computations that are fundamentally different from those supporting perception and action systems. Here we advance a novel view of human problem solving as probabilistic inference with subgoaling. In this perspective, key insights from cognitive architectures are retained such as the importance of using subgoals to split problems into subproblems. However, here the underlying computations use probabilistic inference methods analogous to those that are increasingly popular in the study of perception and action systems. To test our model we focus on the widely used Tower of Hanoi (ToH) task, and show that our proposed method can reproduce characteristic idiosyncrasies of human problem solvers: their sensitivity to the “community structure” of the ToH and their difficulties in executing so-called “counterintuitive” movements. Our analysis reveals that subgoals have two key roles in probabilistic inference and problem solving. First, prior beliefs on (likely) useful subgoals carve the problem space and define an implicit metric for the problem at hand—a metric to which humans are sensitive. Second, subgoals are used as waypoints in the probabilistic problem solving inference and permit to find effective solutions that, when unavailable, lead to problem solving deficits. Our study thus suggests that a probabilistic inference scheme enhanced with subgoals provides a comprehensive framework to study problem solving and its deficits. PMID:27074140

Problem Solving as Probabilistic Inference with Subgoaling: Explaining Human Successes and Pitfalls in the Tower of Hanoi.

PubMed

Donnarumma, Francesco; Maisto, Domenico; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2016-04-01

How do humans and other animals face novel problems for which predefined solutions are not available? Human problem solving links to flexible reasoning and inference rather than to slow trial-and-error learning. It has received considerable attention since the early days of cognitive science, giving rise to well known cognitive architectures such as SOAR and ACT-R, but its computational and brain mechanisms remain incompletely known. Furthermore, it is still unclear whether problem solving is a "specialized" domain or module of cognition, in the sense that it requires computations that are fundamentally different from those supporting perception and action systems. Here we advance a novel view of human problem solving as probabilistic inference with subgoaling. In this perspective, key insights from cognitive architectures are retained such as the importance of using subgoals to split problems into subproblems. However, here the underlying computations use probabilistic inference methods analogous to those that are increasingly popular in the study of perception and action systems. To test our model we focus on the widely used Tower of Hanoi (ToH) task, and show that our proposed method can reproduce characteristic idiosyncrasies of human problem solvers: their sensitivity to the "community structure" of the ToH and their difficulties in executing so-called "counterintuitive" movements. Our analysis reveals that subgoals have two key roles in probabilistic inference and problem solving. First, prior beliefs on (likely) useful subgoals carve the problem space and define an implicit metric for the problem at hand-a metric to which humans are sensitive. Second, subgoals are used as waypoints in the probabilistic problem solving inference and permit to find effective solutions that, when unavailable, lead to problem solving deficits. Our study thus suggests that a probabilistic inference scheme enhanced with subgoals provides a comprehensive framework to study problem solving and its deficits.

Classification of the micro and nanoparticles and biological agents by neural network analysis of the parameters of optical resonance of whispering gallery mode in dielectric microspheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saetchnikov, Vladimir A.; Tcherniavskaia, Elina A.; Schweiger, Gustav; Ostendorf, Andreas

2011-07-01

A novel technique for the label-free analysis of micro and nanoparticles including biomolecules using optical micro cavity resonance of whispering-gallery-type modes is being developed. Various schemes of the method using both standard and specially produced microspheres have been investigated to make further development for microbial application. It was demonstrated that optical resonance under optimal geometry could be detected under the laser power of less 1 microwatt. The sensitivity of developed schemes has been tested by monitoring the spectral shift of the whispering gallery modes. Water solutions of ethanol, ascorbic acid, blood phantoms including albumin and HCl, glucose, biotin, biomarker like C reactive protein so as bacteria and virus phantoms (gels of silica micro and nanoparticles) have been used. Structure of resonance spectra of the solutions was a specific subject of investigation. Probabilistic neural network classifier for biological agents and micro/nano particles classification has been developed. Several parameters of resonance spectra as spectral shift, broadening, diffuseness and others have been used as input parameters to develop a network classifier for micro and nanoparticles and biological agents in solution. Classification probability of approximately 98% for probes under investigation have been achieved. Developed approach have been demonstrated to be a promising technology platform for sensitive, lab-on-chip type sensor which can be used for development of diagnostic tools for different biological molecules, e.g. proteins, oligonucleotides, oligosaccharides, lipids, small molecules, viral particles, cells as well as in different experimental contexts e.g. proteomics, genomics, drug discovery, and membrane studies.

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2010-01-01

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multifactor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Reliability and Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2008-01-01

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the structural reliability and risk of select metallic and composite structures. The method is a multiscale, multifunctional and it is based on the most elemental level. A multi-factor interaction model is used to describe the material properties which are subsequently evaluated probabilistically. The metallic structure is a two rotor aircraft engine, while the composite structures consist of laminated plies (multiscale) and the properties of each ply are the multifunctional representation. The structural component is modeled by finite element. The solution method for structural responses is obtained by an updated simulation scheme. The results show that the risk for the two rotor engine is about 0.0001 and the composite built-up structure is also 0.0001.

Probabilistic wind/tornado/missile analyses for hazard and fragility evaluations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Y.J.; Reich, M.

Detailed analysis procedures and examples are presented for the probabilistic evaluation of hazard and fragility against high wind, tornado, and tornado-generated missiles. In the tornado hazard analysis, existing risk models are modified to incorporate various uncertainties including modeling errors. A significant feature of this paper is the detailed description of the Monte-Carlo simulation analyses of tornado-generated missiles. A simulation procedure, which includes the wind field modeling, missile injection, solution of flight equations, and missile impact analysis, is described with application examples.

Discovery Mechanisms for the Sensor Web

PubMed Central

Jirka, Simon; Bröring, Arne; Stasch, Christoph

2009-01-01

This paper addresses the discovery of sensors within the OGC Sensor Web Enablement framework. Whereas services like the OGC Web Map Service or Web Coverage Service are already well supported through catalogue services, the field of sensor networks and the according discovery mechanisms is still a challenge. The focus within this article will be on the use of existing OGC Sensor Web components for realizing a discovery solution. After discussing the requirements for a Sensor Web discovery mechanism, an approach will be presented that was developed within the EU funded project “OSIRIS”. This solution offers mechanisms to search for sensors, exploit basic semantic relationships, harvest sensor metadata and integrate sensor discovery into already existing catalogues. PMID:22574038

Probabilistic solutions of nonlinear oscillators excited by combined colored and white noise excitations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siu-Siu, Guo; Qingxuan, Shi

2017-03-01

In this paper, single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems combined to Gaussian white noise and Gaussian/non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are investigated. By expressing colored noise excitation as a second-order filtered white noise process and introducing colored noise as an additional state variable, the equation of motion for SDOF system under colored noise is then transferred artificially to multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) system under white noise excitations with four-coupled first-order differential equations. As a consequence, corresponding Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov (FPK) equation governing the joint probabilistic density function (PDF) of state variables increases to 4-dimension (4-D). Solution procedure and computer programme become much more sophisticated. The exponential-polynomial closure (EPC) method, widely applied for cases of SDOF systems under white noise excitations, is developed and improved for cases of systems under colored noise excitations and for solving the complex 4-D FPK equation. On the other hand, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is performed to test the approximate EPC solutions. Two examples associated with Gaussian and non-Gaussian colored noise excitations are considered. Corresponding band-limited power spectral densities (PSDs) for colored noise excitations are separately given. Numerical studies show that the developed EPC method provides relatively accurate estimates of the stationary probabilistic solutions, especially the ones in the tail regions of the PDFs. Moreover, statistical parameter of mean-up crossing rate (MCR) is taken into account, which is important for reliability and failure analysis. Hopefully, our present work could provide insights into the investigation of structures under random loadings.

Probabilistic techniques for obtaining accurate patient counts in Clinical Data Warehouses

PubMed Central

Myers, Risa B.; Herskovic, Jorge R.

2011-01-01

Proposal and execution of clinical trials, computation of quality measures and discovery of correlation between medical phenomena are all applications where an accurate count of patients is needed. However, existing sources of this type of patient information, including Clinical Data Warehouses (CDW) may be incomplete or inaccurate. This research explores applying probabilistic techniques, supported by the MayBMS probabilistic database, to obtain accurate patient counts from a clinical data warehouse containing synthetic patient data. We present a synthetic clinical data warehouse (CDW), and populate it with simulated data using a custom patient data generation engine. We then implement, evaluate and compare different techniques for obtaining patients counts. We model billing as a test for the presence of a condition. We compute billing’s sensitivity and specificity both by conducting a “Simulated Expert Review” where a representative sample of records are reviewed and labeled by experts, and by obtaining the ground truth for every record. We compute the posterior probability of a patient having a condition through a “Bayesian Chain”, using Bayes’ Theorem to calculate the probability of a patient having a condition after each visit. The second method is a “one-shot” approach that computes the probability of a patient having a condition based on whether the patient is ever billed for the condition Our results demonstrate the utility of probabilistic approaches, which improve on the accuracy of raw counts. In particular, the simulated review paired with a single application of Bayes’ Theorem produces the best results, with an average error rate of 2.1% compared to 43.7% for the straightforward billing counts. Overall, this research demonstrates that Bayesian probabilistic approaches improve patient counts on simulated patient populations. We believe that total patient counts based on billing data are one of the many possible applications of our Bayesian framework. Use of these probabilistic techniques will enable more accurate patient counts and better results for applications requiring this metric. PMID:21986292

Comparison: Discovery on WSMOLX and miAamics/jABC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubczak, Christian; Vitvar, Tomas; Winkler, Christian; Zaharia, Raluca; Zaremba, Maciej

This chapter compares the solutions to the SWS-Challenge discovery problems provided by DERI Galway and the joint solution from the Technical University of Dortmund and University of Postdam. The two approaches are described in depth in Chapters 10 and 13. The discovery scenario raises problems associated with making service discovery an automated process. It requires fine-grained specifications of search requests and service functionality including support for fetching dynamic information during the discovery process (e.g., shipment price). Both teams utilize semantics to describe services, service requests and data models in order to enable search at the required fine-grained level of detail.

Non-Deterministic Dynamic Instability of Composite Shells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Abumeri, Galib H.

2004-01-01

A computationally effective method is described to evaluate the non-deterministic dynamic instability (probabilistic dynamic buckling) of thin composite shells. The method is a judicious combination of available computer codes for finite element, composite mechanics, and probabilistic structural analysis. The solution method is incrementally updated Lagrangian. It is illustrated by applying it to thin composite cylindrical shell subjected to dynamic loads. Both deterministic and probabilistic buckling loads are evaluated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. A universal plot is obtained for the specific shell that can be used to approximate buckling loads for different load rates and different probability levels. Results from this plot show that the faster the rate, the higher the buckling load and the shorter the time. The lower the probability, the lower is the buckling load for a specific time. Probabilistic sensitivity results show that the ply thickness, the fiber volume ratio and the fiber longitudinal modulus, dynamic load and loading rate are the dominant uncertainties, in that order.

An object-oriented approach to risk and reliability analysis : methodology and aviation safety applications.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dandini, Vincent John; Duran, Felicia Angelica; Wyss, Gregory Dane

2003-09-01

This article describes how features of event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology, with some of the best features of each. The resultant object-based event scenario tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible. Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST methodology is then applied to anmore » aviation safety problem that considers mechanisms by which an aircraft might become involved in a runway incursion incident. The resulting OBEST model demonstrates how a close link between human reliability analysis and probabilistic risk assessment methods can provide important insights into aviation safety phenomenology.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herbert, J.H.

This brief note describes the probabilistic structure of the Arps/Roberts (A/R) model of petroleum discovery. A model similar to the A/R model is derived from probabilistic propositions demonstrated to be similar to the E. Barouch/G.M. Kaufman (B/K) model, and also demonstrated to be similar to the Drew, Schuenemeyer, and Root (D/S/R) model. This note attempts to elucidate and to simplify some fundamental ideas contained in an unpublished paper by Barouch and Kaufman. This note and its predecessor paper does not attempt to address a wide variety of statistical approaches for estimating petroleum resource availability. Rather, an attempt is made tomore » draw attention to characteristics of certain methods that are commonly used, both formally and informally, to estimate a petroleum resource base for a basin or a nation. Some of these characteristics are statistical, but many are not, except in the broadest sense of the term.« less

Discovery of characteristic chemical markers for classification of aconite herbs by chromatographic profile and probabilistic neural network.

PubMed

Yang, Hua; Gao, Wen; Liu, Lei; Liu, Ke; Liu, E-Hu; Qi, Lian-Wen; Li, Ping

2015-11-10

Most Aconitum species, also known as aconite, are extremely poisonous, so it must be identified carefully. Differentiation of Aconitum species is challenging because of their similar appearance and chemical components. In this study, a universal strategy to discover chemical markers was developed for effective authentication of three commonly used aconite roots. The major procedures include: (1) chemical profiling and structural assignment of herbs by liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry (LC-MS), (2) quantification of major components by LC-MS, (3) probabilistic neural network (PNN) model to calculate contributions of components toward species classification, (4) discovery of minimized number of chemical markers for quality control. The MS fragmentation pathways of diester-, monoester-, and alkyloyamine-diterpenoid alkaloids were compared. Using these rules, 42 aconite alkaloids were identified in aconite roots. Subsequently, 11 characteristic compounds were quantified. A component-species modeling by PNN was then established combining the 11 analytes and 26-batch samples from three aconite species. The contribution of each analyte to species classification was calculated. Selection of fuziline, benzoylhypaconine, and talatizamine, or a combination of more compounds based on a contribution order, can be used for successful categorization of the three aconite species. Collectively, the proposed strategy is beneficial to selection of rational chemical markers for the species classification and quality control of herbal medicines. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An overview of engineering concepts and current design algorithms for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, S. F.; Hu, J.; Hopkins, D. A.

1995-01-01

The article begins by examining the fundamentals of traditional deterministic design philosophy. The initial section outlines the concepts of failure criteria and limit state functions two traditional notions that are embedded in deterministic design philosophy. This is followed by a discussion regarding safety factors (a possible limit state function) and the common utilization of statistical concepts in deterministic engineering design approaches. Next the fundamental aspects of a probabilistic failure analysis are explored and it is shown that deterministic design concepts mentioned in the initial portion of the article are embedded in probabilistic design methods. For components fabricated from ceramic materials (and other similarly brittle materials) the probabilistic design approach yields the widely used Weibull analysis after suitable assumptions are incorporated. The authors point out that Weibull analysis provides the rare instance where closed form solutions are available for a probabilistic failure analysis. Since numerical methods are usually required to evaluate component reliabilities, a section on Monte Carlo methods is included to introduce the concept. The article concludes with a presentation of the technical aspects that support the numerical method known as fast probability integration (FPI). This includes a discussion of the Hasofer-Lind and Rackwitz-Fiessler approximations.

Towards a multilevel cognitive probabilistic representation of space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapus, Adriana; Vasudevan, Shrihari; Siegwart, Roland

2005-03-01

This paper addresses the problem of perception and representation of space for a mobile agent. A probabilistic hierarchical framework is suggested as a solution to this problem. The method proposed is a combination of probabilistic belief with "Object Graph Models" (OGM). The world is viewed from a topological optic, in terms of objects and relationships between them. The hierarchical representation that we propose permits an efficient and reliable modeling of the information that the mobile agent would perceive from its environment. The integration of both navigational and interactional capabilities through efficient representation is also addressed. Experiments on a set of images taken from the real world that validate the approach are reported. This framework draws on the general understanding of human cognition and perception and contributes towards the overall efforts to build cognitive robot companions.

Worst case encoder-decoder policies for a communication system in the presence of an unknown probabilistic jammer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cascio, David M.

1988-05-01

States of nature or observed data are often stochastically modelled as Gaussian random variables. At times it is desirable to transmit this information from a source to a destination with minimal distortion. Complicating this objective is the possible presence of an adversary attempting to disrupt this communication. In this report, solutions are provided to a class of minimax and maximin decision problems, which involve the transmission of a Gaussian random variable over a communications channel corrupted by both additive Gaussian noise and probabilistic jamming noise. The jamming noise is termed probabilistic in the sense that with nonzero probability 1-P, the jamming noise is prevented from corrupting the channel. We shall seek to obtain optimal linear encoder-decoder policies which minimize given quadratic distortion measures.

A probabilistic approach to aircraft design emphasizing stability and control uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaurentis, Daniel Andrew

In order to address identified deficiencies in current approaches to aerospace systems design, a new method has been developed. This new method for design is based on the premise that design is a decision making activity, and that deterministic analysis and synthesis can lead to poor, or misguided decision making. This is due to a lack of disciplinary knowledge of sufficient fidelity about the product, to the presence of uncertainty at multiple levels of the aircraft design hierarchy, and to a failure to focus on overall affordability metrics as measures of goodness. Design solutions are desired which are robust to uncertainty and are based on the maximum knowledge possible. The new method represents advances in the two following general areas. 1. Design models and uncertainty. The research performed completes a transition from a deterministic design representation to a probabilistic one through a modeling of design uncertainty at multiple levels of the aircraft design hierarchy, including: (1) Consistent, traceable uncertainty classification and representation; (2) Concise mathematical statement of the Probabilistic Robust Design problem; (3) Variants of the Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs) as decision functions for Robust Design; (4) Probabilistic Sensitivities which identify the most influential sources of variability. 2. Multidisciplinary analysis and design. Imbedded in the probabilistic methodology is a new approach for multidisciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDA/O), employing disciplinary analysis approximations formed through statistical experimentation and regression. These approximation models are a function of design variables common to the system level as well as other disciplines. For aircraft, it is proposed that synthesis/sizing is the proper avenue for integrating multiple disciplines. Research hypotheses are translated into a structured method, which is subsequently tested for validity. Specifically, the implementation involves the study of the relaxed static stability technology for a supersonic commercial transport aircraft. The probabilistic robust design method is exercised resulting in a series of robust design solutions based on different interpretations of "robustness". Insightful results are obtained and the ability of the method to expose trends in the design space are noted as a key advantage.

When knowledge activated from memory intrudes on probabilistic inferences from description - the case of stereotypes.

PubMed

Dorrough, Angela R; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann; Wille, Anika

2017-10-01

To make decisions in probabilistic inference tasks, individuals integrate relevant information partly in an automatic manner. Thereby, potentially irrelevant stimuli that are additionally presented can intrude on the decision process (e.g., Söllner, Bröder, Glöckner, & Betsch, 2014). We investigate whether such an intrusion effect can also be caused by potentially irrelevant or even misleading knowledge activated from memory. In four studies that combine a standard information board paradigm from decision research with a standard manipulation from social psychology, we investigate the case of stereotypes and demonstrate that stereotype knowledge can yield intrusion biases in probabilistic inferences from description. The magnitude of these biases increases with stereotype accessibility and decreases with a clarification of the rational solution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations

PubMed Central

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-01-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. PMID:26463656

A Tale of Two Discoveries: Comparing the Usability of Summon and EBSCO Discovery Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Anita K.; MacDonald, Jean B.

2013-01-01

Web-scale discovery systems are gaining momentum among academic libraries as libraries seek a means to provide their users with a one-stop searching experience. Illinois State University's Milner Library found itself in the unique position of having access to two distinct discovery products, EBSCO Discovery Service and Serials Solutions' Summon.…

ORNL Pre-test Analyses of A Large-scale Experiment in STYLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Paul T; Yin, Shengjun; Klasky, Hilda B

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is conducting a series of numerical analyses to simulate a large scale mock-up experiment planned within the European Network for Structural Integrity for Lifetime Management non-RPV Components (STYLE). STYLE is a European cooperative effort to assess the structural integrity of (non-reactor pressure vessel) reactor coolant pressure boundary components relevant to ageing and life-time management and to integrate the knowledge created in the project into mainstream nuclear industry assessment codes. ORNL contributes work-in-kind support to STYLE Work Package 2 (Numerical Analysis/Advanced Tools) and Work Package 3 (Engineering Assessment Methods/LBB Analyses). This paper summarizes the current statusmore » of ORNL analyses of the STYLE Mock-Up3 large-scale experiment to simulate and evaluate crack growth in a cladded ferritic pipe. The analyses are being performed in two parts. In the first part, advanced fracture mechanics models are being developed and performed to evaluate several experiment designs taking into account the capabilities of the test facility while satisfying the test objectives. Then these advanced fracture mechanics models will be utilized to simulate the crack growth in the large scale mock-up test. For the second part, the recently developed ORNL SIAM-PFM open-source, cross-platform, probabilistic computational tool will be used to generate an alternative assessment for comparison with the advanced fracture mechanics model results. The SIAM-PFM probabilistic analysis of the Mock-Up3 experiment will utilize fracture modules that are installed into a general probabilistic framework. The probabilistic results of the Mock-Up3 experiment obtained from SIAM-PFM will be compared to those results generated using the deterministic 3D nonlinear finite-element modeling approach. The objective of the probabilistic analysis is to provide uncertainty bounds that will assist in assessing the more detailed 3D finite-element solutions and to also assess the level of confidence that can be placed in the best-estimate finiteelement solutions.« less

The Use of the Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation Method in Design of Bolt Reinforcement for Underground and Mining Workings

PubMed Central

Krejsa, Martin; Janas, Petr; Yilmaz, Işık; Marschalko, Marian; Bouchal, Tomas

2013-01-01

The load-carrying system of each construction should fulfill several conditions which represent reliable criteria in the assessment procedure. It is the theory of structural reliability which determines probability of keeping required properties of constructions. Using this theory, it is possible to apply probabilistic computations based on the probability theory and mathematic statistics. Development of those methods has become more and more popular; it is used, in particular, in designs of load-carrying structures with the required level or reliability when at least some input variables in the design are random. The objective of this paper is to indicate the current scope which might be covered by the new method—Direct Optimized Probabilistic Calculation (DOProC) in assessments of reliability of load-carrying structures. DOProC uses a purely numerical approach without any simulation techniques. This provides more accurate solutions to probabilistic tasks, and, in some cases, such approach results in considerably faster completion of computations. DOProC can be used to solve efficiently a number of probabilistic computations. A very good sphere of application for DOProC is the assessment of the bolt reinforcement in the underground and mining workings. For the purposes above, a special software application—“Anchor”—has been developed. PMID:23935412

Renewable energy in electric utility capacity planning: a decomposition approach with application to a Mexican utility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staschus, K.

1985-01-01

In this dissertation, efficient algorithms for electric-utility capacity expansion planning with renewable energy are developed. The algorithms include a deterministic phase that quickly finds a near-optimal expansion plan using derating and a linearized approximation to the time-dependent availability of nondispatchable energy sources. A probabilistic second phase needs comparatively few computer-time consuming probabilistic simulation iterations to modify this solution towards the optimal expansion plan. For the deterministic first phase, two algorithms, based on a Lagrangian Dual decomposition and a Generalized Benders Decomposition, are developed. The probabilistic second phase uses a Generalized Benders Decomposition approach. Extensive computational tests of the algorithms aremore » reported. Among the deterministic algorithms, the one based on Lagrangian Duality proves fastest. The two-phase approach is shown to save up to 80% in computing time as compared to a purely probabilistic algorithm. The algorithms are applied to determine the optimal expansion plan for the Tijuana-Mexicali subsystem of the Mexican electric utility system. A strong recommendation to push conservation programs in the desert city of Mexicali results from this implementation.« less

Models for mirror symmetry breaking via β-sheet-controlled copolymerization: (i) mass balance and (ii) probabilistic treatment.

PubMed

Blanco, Celia; Hochberg, David

2012-12-06

Experimental mechanisms that yield the growth of homochiral copolymers over their heterochiral counterparts have been advocated by Lahav and co-workers. These chiral amplification mechanisms proceed through racemic β-sheet-controlled polymerization operative in both surface crystallites as well as in solution. We develop two complementary theoretical models for these template-induced desymmetrization processes leading to multicomponent homochiral copolymers. First, assuming reversible β-sheet formation, the equilibrium between the free monomer pool and the polymer strand within the template is assumed. This yields coupled nonlinear mass balance equations whose solutions are used to calculate enantiomeric excesses and average lengths of the homochiral chains formed. The second approach is a probabilistic treatment based on random polymerization. The occlusion probabilities depend on the polymerization activation energies for each monomer species and are proportional to the concentrations of the monomers in solution in the constant pool approximation. The monomer occlusion probabilities are represented geometrically in terms of unit simplexes from which conditions for maximizing or minimizing the likelihood for mirror symmetry breaking can be determined.

Optimal design of groundwater remediation system using a probabilistic multi-objective fast harmony search algorithm under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Qiankun; Wu, Jianfeng; Yang, Yun; Qian, Jiazhong; Wu, Jichun

2014-11-01

This study develops a new probabilistic multi-objective fast harmony search algorithm (PMOFHS) for optimal design of groundwater remediation systems under uncertainty associated with the hydraulic conductivity (K) of aquifers. The PMOFHS integrates the previously developed deterministic multi-objective optimization method, namely multi-objective fast harmony search algorithm (MOFHS) with a probabilistic sorting technique to search for Pareto-optimal solutions to multi-objective optimization problems in a noisy hydrogeological environment arising from insufficient K data. The PMOFHS is then coupled with the commonly used flow and transport codes, MODFLOW and MT3DMS, to identify the optimal design of groundwater remediation systems for a two-dimensional hypothetical test problem and a three-dimensional Indiana field application involving two objectives: (i) minimization of the total remediation cost through the engineering planning horizon, and (ii) minimization of the mass remaining in the aquifer at the end of the operational period, whereby the pump-and-treat (PAT) technology is used to clean up contaminated groundwater. Also, Monte Carlo (MC) analysis is employed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. Comprehensive analysis indicates that the proposed PMOFHS can find Pareto-optimal solutions with low variability and high reliability and is a potentially effective tool for optimizing multi-objective groundwater remediation problems under uncertainty.

A PLUG-AND-PLAY ARCHITECTURE FOR PROBABILISTIC PROGRAMMING

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

programs that use discrete numerical distributions, but even then, the space of possible outcomes may be uncountable (as a solution can be infinite...also identify conditions guaranteeing that all possible outcomes are finite (and then the probability space is discrete ). 2.2.2 The PlogiQL...and not determined at runtime. Nevertheless, the PRAiSE team plans to extend their solution to support numerical (continuous or discrete

Causal discovery in the geosciences-Using synthetic data to learn how to interpret results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert-Uphoff, Imme; Deng, Yi

2017-02-01

Causal discovery algorithms based on probabilistic graphical models have recently emerged in geoscience applications for the identification and visualization of dynamical processes. The key idea is to learn the structure of a graphical model from observed spatio-temporal data, thus finding pathways of interactions in the observed physical system. Studying those pathways allows geoscientists to learn subtle details about the underlying dynamical mechanisms governing our planet. Initial studies using this approach on real-world atmospheric data have shown great potential for scientific discovery. However, in these initial studies no ground truth was available, so that the resulting graphs have been evaluated only by whether a domain expert thinks they seemed physically plausible. The lack of ground truth is a typical problem when using causal discovery in the geosciences. Furthermore, while most of the connections found by this method match domain knowledge, we encountered one type of connection for which no explanation was found. To address both of these issues we developed a simulation framework that generates synthetic data of typical atmospheric processes (advection and diffusion). Applying the causal discovery algorithm to the synthetic data allowed us (1) to develop a better understanding of how these physical processes appear in the resulting connectivity graphs, and thus how to better interpret such connectivity graphs when obtained from real-world data; (2) to solve the mystery of the previously unexplained connections.

Impact of a Discovery System on Interlibrary Loan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Musser, Linda R.; Coopey, Barbara M.

2016-01-01

Web-scale discovery services such as Summon (Serial Solutions), WorldCat Local (OCLC), EDS (EBSCO), and Primo (Ex Libris) are often touted as a single search solution to connect users to library-owned and -licensed content, improving discoverability and retrieval of resources. Assessing how well these systems achieve this goal can be challenging,…

Neptune: a bioinformatics tool for rapid discovery of genomic variation in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Marinier, Eric; Zaheer, Rahat; Berry, Chrystal; Weedmark, Kelly A.; Domaratzki, Michael; Mabon, Philip; Knox, Natalie C.; Reimer, Aleisha R.; Graham, Morag R.; Chui, Linda; Patterson-Fortin, Laura; Zhang, Jian; Pagotto, Franco; Farber, Jeff; Mahony, Jim; Seyer, Karine; Bekal, Sadjia; Tremblay, Cécile; Isaac-Renton, Judy; Prystajecky, Natalie; Chen, Jessica; Slade, Peter

2017-01-01

Abstract The ready availability of vast amounts of genomic sequence data has created the need to rethink comparative genomics algorithms using ‘big data’ approaches. Neptune is an efficient system for rapidly locating differentially abundant genomic content in bacterial populations using an exact k-mer matching strategy, while accommodating k-mer mismatches. Neptune’s loci discovery process identifies sequences that are sufficiently common to a group of target sequences and sufficiently absent from non-targets using probabilistic models. Neptune uses parallel computing to efficiently identify and extract these loci from draft genome assemblies without requiring multiple sequence alignments or other computationally expensive comparative sequence analyses. Tests on simulated and real datasets showed that Neptune rapidly identifies regions that are both sensitive and specific. We demonstrate that this system can identify trait-specific loci from different bacterial lineages. Neptune is broadly applicable for comparative bacterial analyses, yet will particularly benefit pathogenomic applications, owing to efficient and sensitive discovery of differentially abundant genomic loci. The software is available for download at: http://github.com/phac-nml/neptune. PMID:29048594

The Emergence of Organizing Structure in Conceptual Representation.

PubMed

Lake, Brenden M; Lawrence, Neil D; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

2018-06-01

Both scientists and children make important structural discoveries, yet their computational underpinnings are not well understood. Structure discovery has previously been formalized as probabilistic inference about the right structural form-where form could be a tree, ring, chain, grid, etc. (Kemp & Tenenbaum, 2008). Although this approach can learn intuitive organizations, including a tree for animals and a ring for the color circle, it assumes a strong inductive bias that considers only these particular forms, and each form is explicitly provided as initial knowledge. Here we introduce a new computational model of how organizing structure can be discovered, utilizing a broad hypothesis space with a preference for sparse connectivity. Given that the inductive bias is more general, the model's initial knowledge shows little qualitative resemblance to some of the discoveries it supports. As a consequence, the model can also learn complex structures for domains that lack intuitive description, as well as predict human property induction judgments without explicit structural forms. By allowing form to emerge from sparsity, our approach clarifies how both the richness and flexibility of human conceptual organization can coexist. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Topical video object discovery from key frames by modeling word co-occurrence prior.

PubMed

Zhao, Gangqiang; Yuan, Junsong; Hua, Gang; Yang, Jiong

2015-12-01

A topical video object refers to an object, that is, frequently highlighted in a video. It could be, e.g., the product logo and the leading actor/actress in a TV commercial. We propose a topic model that incorporates a word co-occurrence prior for efficient discovery of topical video objects from a set of key frames. Previous work using topic models, such as latent Dirichelet allocation (LDA), for video object discovery often takes a bag-of-visual-words representation, which ignored important co-occurrence information among the local features. We show that such data driven co-occurrence information from bottom-up can conveniently be incorporated in LDA with a Gaussian Markov prior, which combines top-down probabilistic topic modeling with bottom-up priors in a unified model. Our experiments on challenging videos demonstrate that the proposed approach can discover different types of topical objects despite variations in scale, view-point, color and lighting changes, or even partial occlusions. The efficacy of the co-occurrence prior is clearly demonstrated when compared with topic models without such priors.

Distribution-dependent robust linear optimization with applications to inventory control

PubMed Central

Kang, Seong-Cheol; Brisimi, Theodora S.

2014-01-01

This paper tackles linear programming problems with data uncertainty and applies it to an important inventory control problem. Each element of the constraint matrix is subject to uncertainty and is modeled as a random variable with a bounded support. The classical robust optimization approach to this problem yields a solution with guaranteed feasibility. As this approach tends to be too conservative when applications can tolerate a small chance of infeasibility, one would be interested in obtaining a less conservative solution with a certain probabilistic guarantee of feasibility. A robust formulation in the literature produces such a solution, but it does not use any distributional information on the uncertain data. In this work, we show that the use of distributional information leads to an equally robust solution (i.e., under the same probabilistic guarantee of feasibility) but with a better objective value. In particular, by exploiting distributional information, we establish stronger upper bounds on the constraint violation probability of a solution. These bounds enable us to “inject” less conservatism into the formulation, which in turn yields a more cost-effective solution (by 50% or more in some numerical instances). To illustrate the effectiveness of our methodology, we consider a discrete-time stochastic inventory control problem with certain quality of service constraints. Numerical tests demonstrate that the use of distributional information in the robust optimization of the inventory control problem results in 36%–54% cost savings, compared to the case where such information is not used. PMID:26347579

A probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations.

PubMed

He, Yungang; Wang, Minxian; Huang, Xin; Li, Ran; Xu, Hongyang; Xu, Shuhua; Jin, Li

2015-12-01

Human populations around the world encounter various environmental challenges and, consequently, develop genetic adaptations to different selection forces. Identifying the differences in natural selection between populations is critical for understanding the roles of specific genetic variants in evolutionary adaptation. Although numerous methods have been developed to detect genetic loci under recent directional selection, a probabilistic solution for testing and quantifying selection differences between populations is lacking. Here we report the development of a probabilistic method for testing and estimating selection differences between populations. By use of a probabilistic model of genetic drift and selection, we showed that logarithm odds ratios of allele frequencies provide estimates of the differences in selection coefficients between populations. The estimates approximate a normal distribution, and variance can be estimated using genome-wide variants. This allows us to quantify differences in selection coefficients and to determine the confidence intervals of the estimate. Our work also revealed the link between genetic association testing and hypothesis testing of selection differences. It therefore supplies a solution for hypothesis testing of selection differences. This method was applied to a genome-wide data analysis of Han and Tibetan populations. The results confirmed that both the EPAS1 and EGLN1 genes are under statistically different selection in Han and Tibetan populations. We further estimated differences in the selection coefficients for genetic variants involved in melanin formation and determined their confidence intervals between continental population groups. Application of the method to empirical data demonstrated the outstanding capability of this novel approach for testing and quantifying differences in natural selection. © 2015 He et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Organization and scaling in water supply networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Likwan; Karney, Bryan W.

2017-12-01

Public water supply is one of the society's most vital resources and most costly infrastructures. Traditional concepts of these networks capture their engineering identity as isolated, deterministic hydraulic units, but overlook their physics identity as related entities in a probabilistic, geographic ensemble, characterized by size organization and property scaling. Although discoveries of allometric scaling in natural supply networks (organisms and rivers) raised the prospect for similar findings in anthropogenic supplies, so far such a finding has not been reported in public water or related civic resource supplies. Examining an empirical ensemble of large number and wide size range, we show that water supply networks possess self-organized size abundance and theory-explained allometric scaling in spatial, infrastructural, and resource- and emission-flow properties. These discoveries establish scaling physics for water supply networks and may lead to novel applications in resource- and jurisdiction-scale water governance.

A probabilistic multi-criteria decision making technique for conceptual and preliminary aerospace systems design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandte, Oliver

It has always been the intention of systems engineering to invent or produce the best product possible. Many design techniques have been introduced over the course of decades that try to fulfill this intention. Unfortunately, no technique has succeeded in combining multi-criteria decision making with probabilistic design. The design technique developed in this thesis, the Joint Probabilistic Decision Making (JPDM) technique, successfully overcomes this deficiency by generating a multivariate probability distribution that serves in conjunction with a criterion value range of interest as a universally applicable objective function for multi-criteria optimization and product selection. This new objective function constitutes a meaningful Xnetric, called Probability of Success (POS), that allows the customer or designer to make a decision based on the chance of satisfying the customer's goals. In order to incorporate a joint probabilistic formulation into the systems design process, two algorithms are created that allow for an easy implementation into a numerical design framework: the (multivariate) Empirical Distribution Function and the Joint Probability Model. The Empirical Distribution Function estimates the probability that an event occurred by counting how many times it occurred in a given sample. The Joint Probability Model on the other hand is an analytical parametric model for the multivariate joint probability. It is comprised of the product of the univariate criterion distributions, generated by the traditional probabilistic design process, multiplied with a correlation function that is based on available correlation information between pairs of random variables. JPDM is an excellent tool for multi-objective optimization and product selection, because of its ability to transform disparate objectives into a single figure of merit, the likelihood of successfully meeting all goals or POS. The advantage of JPDM over other multi-criteria decision making techniques is that POS constitutes a single optimizable function or metric that enables a comparison of all alternative solutions on an equal basis. Hence, POS allows for the use of any standard single-objective optimization technique available and simplifies a complex multi-criteria selection problem into a simple ordering problem, where the solution with the highest POS is best. By distinguishing between controllable and uncontrollable variables in the design process, JPDM can account for the uncertain values of the uncontrollable variables that are inherent to the design problem, while facilitating an easy adjustment of the controllable ones to achieve the highest possible POS. Finally, JPDM's superiority over current multi-criteria decision making techniques is demonstrated with an optimization of a supersonic transport concept and ten contrived equations as well as a product selection example, determining an airline's best choice among Boeing's B-747, B-777, Airbus' A340, and a Supersonic Transport. The optimization examples demonstrate JPDM's ability to produce a better solution with a higher POS than an Overall Evaluation Criterion or Goal Programming approach. Similarly, the product selection example demonstrates JPDM's ability to produce a better solution with a higher POS and different ranking than the Overall Evaluation Criterion or Technique for Order Preferences by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach.

MrLavaLoba: A new probabilistic model for the simulation of lava flows as a settling process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Tarquini, Simone

2018-01-01

A new code to simulate lava flow spread, MrLavaLoba, is presented. In the code, erupted lava is itemized in parcels having an elliptical shape and prescribed volume. New parcels bud from existing ones according to a probabilistic law influenced by the local steepest slope direction and by tunable input settings. MrLavaLoba must be accounted among the probabilistic codes for the simulation of lava flows, because it is not intended to mimic the actual process of flowing or to provide directly the progression with time of the flow field, but rather to guess the most probable inundated area and final thickness of the lava deposit. The code's flexibility allows it to produce variable lava flow spread and emplacement according to different dynamics (e.g. pahoehoe or channelized-'a'ā). For a given scenario, it is shown that model outputs converge, in probabilistic terms, towards a single solution. The code is applied to real cases in Hawaii and Mt. Etna, and the obtained maps are shown. The model is written in Python and the source code is available at http://demichie.github.io/MrLavaLoba/.

Judgment under uncertainty; a probabilistic evaluation framework for decision-making about sanitation systems in low-income countries.

PubMed

Malekpour, Shirin; Langeveld, Jeroen; Letema, Sammy; Clemens, François; van Lier, Jules B

2013-03-30

This paper introduces the probabilistic evaluation framework, to enable transparent and objective decision-making in technology selection for sanitation solutions in low-income countries. The probabilistic framework recognizes the often poor quality of the available data for evaluations. Within this framework, the evaluations will be done based on the probabilities that the expected outcomes occur in practice, considering the uncertainties in evaluation parameters. Consequently, the outcome of evaluations will not be single point estimates; but there exists a range of possible outcomes. A first trial application of this framework for evaluation of sanitation options in the Nyalenda settlement in Kisumu, Kenya, showed how the range of values that an evaluation parameter may obtain in practice would influence the evaluation outcomes. In addition, as the probabilistic evaluation requires various site-specific data, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each data set quality on the evaluation outcomes. Based on that, data collection activities could be (re)directed, in a trade-off between the required investments in those activities and the resolution of the decisions that are to be made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Developmental Approach to Robotic Goal-Based Imitation Learning.

PubMed

Chung, Michael Jae-Yoon; Friesen, Abram L; Fox, Dieter; Meltzoff, Andrew N; Rao, Rajesh P N

2015-01-01

A fundamental challenge in robotics today is building robots that can learn new skills by observing humans and imitating human actions. We propose a new Bayesian approach to robotic learning by imitation inspired by the developmental hypothesis that children use self-experience to bootstrap the process of intention recognition and goal-based imitation. Our approach allows an autonomous agent to: (i) learn probabilistic models of actions through self-discovery and experience, (ii) utilize these learned models for inferring the goals of human actions, and (iii) perform goal-based imitation for robotic learning and human-robot collaboration. Such an approach allows a robot to leverage its increasing repertoire of learned behaviors to interpret increasingly complex human actions and use the inferred goals for imitation, even when the robot has very different actuators from humans. We demonstrate our approach using two different scenarios: (i) a simulated robot that learns human-like gaze following behavior, and (ii) a robot that learns to imitate human actions in a tabletop organization task. In both cases, the agent learns a probabilistic model of its own actions, and uses this model for goal inference and goal-based imitation. We also show that the robotic agent can use its probabilistic model to seek human assistance when it recognizes that its inferred actions are too uncertain, risky, or impossible to perform, thereby opening the door to human-robot collaboration.

Quantitative analysis of breast cancer diagnosis using a probabilistic modelling approach.

PubMed

Liu, Shuo; Zeng, Jinshu; Gong, Huizhou; Yang, Hongqin; Zhai, Jia; Cao, Yi; Liu, Junxiu; Luo, Yuling; Li, Yuhua; Maguire, Liam; Ding, Xuemei

2018-01-01

Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer in women in most countries of the world. Many computer-aided diagnostic methods have been proposed, but there are few studies on quantitative discovery of probabilistic dependencies among breast cancer data features and identification of the contribution of each feature to breast cancer diagnosis. This study aims to fill this void by utilizing a Bayesian network (BN) modelling approach. A K2 learning algorithm and statistical computation methods are used to construct BN structure and assess the obtained BN model. The data used in this study were collected from a clinical ultrasound dataset derived from a Chinese local hospital and a fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC) dataset from UCI machine learning repository. Our study suggested that, in terms of ultrasound data, cell shape is the most significant feature for breast cancer diagnosis, and the resistance index presents a strong probabilistic dependency on blood signals. With respect to FNAC data, bare nuclei are the most important discriminating feature of malignant and benign breast tumours, and uniformity of both cell size and cell shape are tightly interdependent. The BN modelling approach can support clinicians in making diagnostic decisions based on the significant features identified by the model, especially when some other features are missing for specific patients. The approach is also applicable to other healthcare data analytics and data modelling for disease diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Bayesian Developmental Approach to Robotic Goal-Based Imitation Learning

PubMed Central

Chung, Michael Jae-Yoon; Friesen, Abram L.; Fox, Dieter; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Rao, Rajesh P. N.

2015-01-01

A fundamental challenge in robotics today is building robots that can learn new skills by observing humans and imitating human actions. We propose a new Bayesian approach to robotic learning by imitation inspired by the developmental hypothesis that children use self-experience to bootstrap the process of intention recognition and goal-based imitation. Our approach allows an autonomous agent to: (i) learn probabilistic models of actions through self-discovery and experience, (ii) utilize these learned models for inferring the goals of human actions, and (iii) perform goal-based imitation for robotic learning and human-robot collaboration. Such an approach allows a robot to leverage its increasing repertoire of learned behaviors to interpret increasingly complex human actions and use the inferred goals for imitation, even when the robot has very different actuators from humans. We demonstrate our approach using two different scenarios: (i) a simulated robot that learns human-like gaze following behavior, and (ii) a robot that learns to imitate human actions in a tabletop organization task. In both cases, the agent learns a probabilistic model of its own actions, and uses this model for goal inference and goal-based imitation. We also show that the robotic agent can use its probabilistic model to seek human assistance when it recognizes that its inferred actions are too uncertain, risky, or impossible to perform, thereby opening the door to human-robot collaboration. PMID:26536366

Decision-theoretic control of EUVE telescope scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansson, Othar; Mayer, Andrew

1993-01-01

This paper describes a decision theoretic scheduler (DTS) designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of the features of a given problem. The Bayesian Problem-Solver (BPS) introduced a similar approach to solving single agent and adversarial graph search patterns yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems.

Experiments with a decision-theoretic scheduler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansson, Othar; Holt, Gerhard; Mayer, Andrew

1992-01-01

This paper describes DTS, a decision-theoretic scheduler designed to employ state-of-the-art probabilistic inference technology to speed the search for efficient solutions to constraint-satisfaction problems. Our approach involves assessing the performance of heuristic control strategies that are normally hard-coded into scheduling systems, and using probabilistic inference to aggregate this information in light of features of a given problem. BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, introduced a similar approach to solving single-agent and adversarial graph search problems, yielding orders-of-magnitude improvement over traditional techniques. Initial efforts suggest that similar improvements will be realizable when applied to typical constraint-satisfaction scheduling problems.

Stochastic methods for analysis of power flow in electric networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1982-09-01

The modeling and effects of probabilistic behavior on steady state power system operation were analyzed. A solution to the steady state network flow equations which adhere both to Kirchoff's Laws and probabilistic laws, using either combinatorial or functional approximation techniques was obtained. The development of sound techniques for producing meaningful data to serve as input is examined. Electric demand modeling, equipment failure analysis, and algorithm development are investigated. Two major development areas are described: a decomposition of stochastic processes which gives stationarity, ergodicity, and even normality; and a powerful surrogate probability approach using proportions of time which allows the calculation of joint events from one dimensional probability spaces.

An equation-free probabilistic steady-state approximation: dynamic application to the stochastic simulation of biochemical reaction networks.

PubMed

Salis, Howard; Kaznessis, Yiannis N

2005-12-01

Stochastic chemical kinetics more accurately describes the dynamics of "small" chemical systems, such as biological cells. Many real systems contain dynamical stiffness, which causes the exact stochastic simulation algorithm or other kinetic Monte Carlo methods to spend the majority of their time executing frequently occurring reaction events. Previous methods have successfully applied a type of probabilistic steady-state approximation by deriving an evolution equation, such as the chemical master equation, for the relaxed fast dynamics and using the solution of that equation to determine the slow dynamics. However, because the solution of the chemical master equation is limited to small, carefully selected, or linear reaction networks, an alternate equation-free method would be highly useful. We present a probabilistic steady-state approximation that separates the time scales of an arbitrary reaction network, detects the convergence of a marginal distribution to a quasi-steady-state, directly samples the underlying distribution, and uses those samples to accurately predict the state of the system, including the effects of the slow dynamics, at future times. The numerical method produces an accurate solution of both the fast and slow reaction dynamics while, for stiff systems, reducing the computational time by orders of magnitude. The developed theory makes no approximations on the shape or form of the underlying steady-state distribution and only assumes that it is ergodic. We demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the method using multiple interesting examples, including a highly nonlinear protein-protein interaction network. The developed theory may be applied to any type of kinetic Monte Carlo simulation to more efficiently simulate dynamically stiff systems, including existing exact, approximate, or hybrid stochastic simulation techniques.

Optimally Stopped Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, Walter; Lidar, Daniel

We combine the fields of heuristic optimization and optimal stopping. We propose a strategy for benchmarking randomized optimization algorithms that minimizes the expected total cost for obtaining a good solution with an optimal number of calls to the solver. To do so, rather than letting the objective function alone define a cost to be minimized, we introduce a further cost-per-call of the algorithm. We show that this problem can be formulated using optimal stopping theory. The expected cost is a flexible figure of merit for benchmarking probabilistic solvers that can be computed when the optimal solution is not known, and that avoids the biases and arbitrariness that affect other measures. The optimal stopping formulation of benchmarking directly leads to a real-time, optimal-utilization strategy for probabilistic optimizers with practical impact. We apply our formulation to benchmark the performance of a D-Wave 2X quantum annealer and the HFS solver, a specialized classical heuristic algorithm designed for low tree-width graphs. On a set of frustrated-loop instances with planted solutions defined on up to N = 1098 variables, the D-Wave device is between one to two orders of magnitude faster than the HFS solver.

Application of Probabilistic Methods for the Determination of an Economically Robust HSCT Configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mavris, Dimitri N.; Bandte, Oliver; Schrage, Daniel P.

1996-01-01

This paper outlines an approach for the determination of economically viable robust design solutions using the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) as a case study. Furthermore, the paper states the advantages of a probability based aircraft design over the traditional point design approach. It also proposes a new methodology called Robust Design Simulation (RDS) which treats customer satisfaction as the ultimate design objective. RDS is based on a probabilistic approach to aerospace systems design, which views the chosen objective as a distribution function introduced by so called noise or uncertainty variables. Since the designer has no control over these variables, a variability distribution is defined for each one of them. The cumulative effect of all these distributions causes the overall variability of the objective function. For cases where the selected objective function depends heavily on these noise variables, it may be desirable to obtain a design solution that minimizes this dependence. The paper outlines a step by step approach on how to achieve such a solution for the HSCT case study and introduces an evaluation criterion which guarantees the highest customer satisfaction. This customer satisfaction is expressed by the probability of achieving objective function values less than a desired target value.

Discovery Reconceived: Product before Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abrahamson, Dor

2012-01-01

Motivated by the question, "What exactly about a mathematical concept should students discover, when they study it via discovery learning?", I present and demonstrate an interpretation of discovery pedagogy that attempts to address its criticism. My approach hinges on decoupling the solution process from its resultant product. Whereas theories of…

Perturbation Biology: Inferring Signaling Networks in Cellular Systems

PubMed Central

Miller, Martin L.; Gauthier, Nicholas P.; Jing, Xiaohong; Kaushik, Poorvi; He, Qin; Mills, Gordon; Solit, David B.; Pratilas, Christine A.; Weigt, Martin; Braunstein, Alfredo; Pagnani, Andrea; Zecchina, Riccardo; Sander, Chris

2013-01-01

We present a powerful experimental-computational technology for inferring network models that predict the response of cells to perturbations, and that may be useful in the design of combinatorial therapy against cancer. The experiments are systematic series of perturbations of cancer cell lines by targeted drugs, singly or in combination. The response to perturbation is quantified in terms of relative changes in the measured levels of proteins, phospho-proteins and cellular phenotypes such as viability. Computational network models are derived de novo, i.e., without prior knowledge of signaling pathways, and are based on simple non-linear differential equations. The prohibitively large solution space of all possible network models is explored efficiently using a probabilistic algorithm, Belief Propagation (BP), which is three orders of magnitude faster than standard Monte Carlo methods. Explicit executable models are derived for a set of perturbation experiments in SKMEL-133 melanoma cell lines, which are resistant to the therapeutically important inhibitor of RAF kinase. The resulting network models reproduce and extend known pathway biology. They empower potential discoveries of new molecular interactions and predict efficacious novel drug perturbations, such as the inhibition of PLK1, which is verified experimentally. This technology is suitable for application to larger systems in diverse areas of molecular biology. PMID:24367245

Visualizing Uncertainty for Probabilistic Weather Forecasting based on Reforecast Analogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelorosso, Leandro; Diehl, Alexandra; Matković, Krešimir; Delrieux, Claudio; Ruiz, Juan; Gröeller, M. Eduard; Bruckner, Stefan

2016-04-01

Numerical weather forecasts are prone to uncertainty coming from inaccuracies in the initial and boundary conditions and lack of precision in numerical models. Ensemble of forecasts partially addresses these problems by considering several runs of the numerical model. Each forecast is generated with different initial and boundary conditions and different model configurations [GR05]. The ensembles can be expressed as probabilistic forecasts, which have proven to be very effective in the decision-making processes [DE06]. The ensemble of forecasts represents only some of the possible future atmospheric states, usually underestimating the degree of uncertainty in the predictions [KAL03, PH06]. Hamill and Whitaker [HW06] introduced the "Reforecast Analog Regression" (RAR) technique to overcome the limitations of ensemble forecasting. This technique produces probabilistic predictions based on the analysis of historical forecasts and observations. Visual analytics provides tools for processing, visualizing, and exploring data to get new insights and discover hidden information patterns in an interactive exchange between the user and the application [KMS08]. In this work, we introduce Albero, a visual analytics solution for probabilistic weather forecasting based on the RAR technique. Albero targets at least two different type of users: "forecasters", who are meteorologists working in operational weather forecasting and "researchers", who work in the construction of numerical prediction models. Albero is an efficient tool for analyzing precipitation forecasts, allowing forecasters to make and communicate quick decisions. Our solution facilitates the analysis of a set of probabilistic forecasts, associated statistical data, observations and uncertainty. A dashboard with small-multiples of probabilistic forecasts allows the forecasters to analyze at a glance the distribution of probabilities as a function of time, space, and magnitude. It provides the user with a more accurate measure of forecast uncertainty that could result in better decision-making. It offers different level of abstractions to help with the recalibration of the RAR method. It also has an inspection tool that displays the selected analogs, their observations and statistical data. It gives the users access to inner parts of the method, unveiling hidden information. References [GR05] GNEITING T., RAFTERY A. E.: Weather forecasting with ensemble methods. Science 310, 5746, 248-249, 2005. [KAL03] KALNAY E.: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability. Cambridge University Press, 2003. [PH06] PALMER T., HAGEDORN R.: Predictability of weather and climate. Cambridge University Press, 2006. [HW06] HAMILL T. M., WHITAKER J. S.: Probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: Theory and application. Monthly Weather Review 134, 11, 3209-3229, 2006. [DE06] DEITRICK S., EDSALL R.: The influence of uncertainty visualization on decision making: An empirical evaluation. Springer, 2006. [KMS08] KEIM D. A., MANSMANN F., SCHNEIDEWIND J., THOMAS J., ZIEGLER H.: Visual analytics: Scope and challenges. Springer, 2008.

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

On the probabilistic structure of water age: Probabilistic Water Age

DOE PAGES

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-04-23

We report the age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it canmore » be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. Finally, we illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.« less

iPTF14yb: The First Discovery of a Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Independent of a High-Energy Trigger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cenko, S. Bradley; Urban, Alex L.; Perley, Daniel A.; Horesh, Assaf; Corsi, Alessandra; Fox, Derek B.; Cao, Yi; Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Lien, Amy; Arcavi, Iair;

cn.FARMS: a latent variable model to detect copy number variations in microarray data with a low false discovery rate.

PubMed

Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Mayr, Andreas; Klambauer, Günter; Tuefferd, Marianne; De Bondt, An; Talloen, Willem; Göhlmann, Hinrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

2011-07-01

Cost-effective oligonucleotide genotyping arrays like the Affymetrix SNP 6.0 are still the predominant technique to measure DNA copy number variations (CNVs). However, CNV detection methods for microarrays overestimate both the number and the size of CNV regions and, consequently, suffer from a high false discovery rate (FDR). A high FDR means that many CNVs are wrongly detected and therefore not associated with a disease in a clinical study, though correction for multiple testing takes them into account and thereby decreases the study's discovery power. For controlling the FDR, we propose a probabilistic latent variable model, 'cn.FARMS', which is optimized by a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach. cn.FARMS controls the FDR through the information gain of the posterior over the prior. The prior represents the null hypothesis of copy number 2 for all samples from which the posterior can only deviate by strong and consistent signals in the data. On HapMap data, cn.FARMS clearly outperformed the two most prevalent methods with respect to sensitivity and FDR. The software cn.FARMS is publicly available as a R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnfarms/cnfarms.html.

iPTF14yb: The First Discovery of a Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Independent of a High-energy Trigger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenko, S. Bradley; Urban, Alex L.; Perley, Daniel A.; Horesh, Assaf; Corsi, Alessandra; Fox, Derek B.; Cao, Yi; Kasliwal, Mansi M.; Lien, Amy; Arcavi, Iair; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nat R.; Cucchiara, Antonino; de Diego, José A.; Filippenko, Alexei V.; Gal-Yam, Avishay; Gehrels, Neil; Georgiev, Leonid; Jesús González, J.; Graham, John F.; Greiner, Jochen; Kann, D. Alexander; Klein, Christopher R.; Knust, Fabian; Kulkarni, S. R.; Kutyrev, Alexander; Laher, Russ; Lee, William H.; Nugent, Peter E.; Prochaska, J. Xavier; Ramirez-Ruiz, Enrico; Richer, Michael G.; Rubin, Adam; Urata, Yuji; Varela, Karla; Watson, Alan M.; Wozniak, Przemek R.

2015-04-01

We report here the discovery by the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) of iPTF14yb, a luminous ({{M}r}≈ -27.8 mag), cosmological (redshift 1.9733), rapidly fading optical transient. We demonstrate, based on probabilistic arguments and a comparison with the broader population, that iPTF14yb is the optical afterglow of the long-duration gamma-ray burst GRB 140226A. This marks the first unambiguous discovery of a GRB afterglow prior to (and thus entirely independent of) an associated high-energy trigger. We estimate the rate of iPTF14yb-like sources (i.e., cosmologically distant relativistic explosions) based on iPTF observations, inferring an all-sky value of {{\\Re }rel}=610 yr-1 (68% confidence interval of 110-2000 yr-1). Our derived rate is consistent (within the large uncertainty) with the all-sky rate of on-axis GRBs derived by the Swift satellite. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications of the nondetection to date of bona fide “orphan” afterglows (i.e., those lacking detectable high-energy emission) on GRB beaming and the degree of baryon loading in these relativistic jets.

Scientific thinking in young children: theoretical advances, empirical research, and policy implications.

PubMed

Gopnik, Alison

2012-09-28

New theoretical ideas and empirical research show that very young children's learning and thinking are strikingly similar to much learning and thinking in science. Preschoolers test hypotheses against data and make causal inferences; they learn from statistics and informal experimentation, and from watching and listening to others. The mathematical framework of probabilistic models and Bayesian inference can describe this learning in precise ways. These discoveries have implications for early childhood education and policy. In particular, they suggest both that early childhood experience is extremely important and that the trend toward more structured and academic early childhood programs is misguided.

Scientific discovery as a combinatorial optimisation problem: How best to navigate the landscape of possible experiments?

PubMed Central

Kell, Douglas B

2012-01-01

A considerable number of areas of bioscience, including gene and drug discovery, metabolic engineering for the biotechnological improvement of organisms, and the processes of natural and directed evolution, are best viewed in terms of a ‘landscape’ representing a large search space of possible solutions or experiments populated by a considerably smaller number of actual solutions that then emerge. This is what makes these problems ‘hard’, but as such these are to be seen as combinatorial optimisation problems that are best attacked by heuristic methods known from that field. Such landscapes, which may also represent or include multiple objectives, are effectively modelled in silico, with modern active learning algorithms such as those based on Darwinian evolution providing guidance, using existing knowledge, as to what is the ‘best’ experiment to do next. An awareness, and the application, of these methods can thereby enhance the scientific discovery process considerably. This analysis fits comfortably with an emerging epistemology that sees scientific reasoning, the search for solutions, and scientific discovery as Bayesian processes. PMID:22252984

Scientific discovery as a combinatorial optimisation problem: how best to navigate the landscape of possible experiments?

PubMed

Kell, Douglas B

2012-03-01

A considerable number of areas of bioscience, including gene and drug discovery, metabolic engineering for the biotechnological improvement of organisms, and the processes of natural and directed evolution, are best viewed in terms of a 'landscape' representing a large search space of possible solutions or experiments populated by a considerably smaller number of actual solutions that then emerge. This is what makes these problems 'hard', but as such these are to be seen as combinatorial optimisation problems that are best attacked by heuristic methods known from that field. Such landscapes, which may also represent or include multiple objectives, are effectively modelled in silico, with modern active learning algorithms such as those based on Darwinian evolution providing guidance, using existing knowledge, as to what is the 'best' experiment to do next. An awareness, and the application, of these methods can thereby enhance the scientific discovery process considerably. This analysis fits comfortably with an emerging epistemology that sees scientific reasoning, the search for solutions, and scientific discovery as Bayesian processes. Copyright © 2012 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Distributed Algorithms for Probabilistic Solution of Computational Vision Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

34 targets. Legters and Young (1982) developed an operator-based approach r% using foreground and background models and solved a least-squares minimiza...1960), "Finite Markov Chains", Van Nostrand, , - New York. Legters , G.R., and Young, T.Y. (1982), "A Mathematical Model for Computer Image Tracking

Newton's method for nonlinear stochastic wave equations driven by one-dimensional Brownian motion.

PubMed

Leszczynski, Henryk; Wrzosek, Monika

2017-02-01

We consider nonlinear stochastic wave equations driven by one-dimensional white noise with respect to time. The existence of solutions is proved by means of Picard iterations. Next we apply Newton's method. Moreover, a second-order convergence in a probabilistic sense is demonstrated.

Learning Orthographic Structure with Sequential Generative Neural Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin; Sperduti, Alessandro; Zorzi, Marco

2016-01-01

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in…

A Probabilistic Approach to Predict Thermal Fatigue Life for Ball Grid Array Solder Joints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Helin; Wang, Kuisheng

2011-11-01

Numerous studies of the reliability of solder joints have been performed. Most life prediction models are limited to a deterministic approach. However, manufacturing induces uncertainty in the geometry parameters of solder joints, and the environmental temperature varies widely due to end-user diversity, creating uncertainties in the reliability of solder joints. In this study, a methodology for accounting for variation in the lifetime prediction for lead-free solder joints of ball grid array packages (PBGA) is demonstrated. The key aspects of the solder joint parameters and the cyclic temperature range related to reliability are involved. Probabilistic solutions of the inelastic strain range and thermal fatigue life based on the Engelmaier model are developed to determine the probability of solder joint failure. The results indicate that the standard deviation increases significantly when more random variations are involved. Using the probabilistic method, the influence of each variable on the thermal fatigue life is quantified. This information can be used to optimize product design and process validation acceptance criteria. The probabilistic approach creates the opportunity to identify the root causes of failed samples from product fatigue tests and field returns. The method can be applied to better understand how variation affects parameters of interest in an electronic package design with area array interconnections.

Probabilistic Magnetotelluric Inversion with Adaptive Regularisation Using the No-U-Turns Sampler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conway, Dennis; Simpson, Janelle; Didana, Yohannes; Rugari, Joseph; Heinson, Graham

2018-04-01

We present the first inversion of magnetotelluric (MT) data using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. The inversion of MT data is an underdetermined problem which leads to an ensemble of feasible models for a given dataset. A standard approach in MT inversion is to perform a deterministic search for the single solution which is maximally smooth for a given data-fit threshold. An alternative approach is to use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which have been used in MT inversion to explore the entire solution space and produce a suite of likely models. This approach has the advantage of assigning confidence to resistivity models, leading to better geological interpretations. Recent advances in MCMC techniques include the No-U-Turns Sampler (NUTS), an efficient and rapidly converging method which is based on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We have implemented a 1D MT inversion which uses the NUTS algorithm. Our model includes a fixed number of layers of variable thickness and resistivity, as well as probabilistic smoothing constraints which allow sharp and smooth transitions. We present the results of a synthetic study and show the accuracy of the technique, as well as the fast convergence, independence of starting models, and sampling efficiency. Finally, we test our technique on MT data collected from a site in Boulia, Queensland, Australia to show its utility in geological interpretation and ability to provide probabilistic estimates of features such as depth to basement.

Model-based machine learning.

PubMed

Bishop, Christopher M

2013-02-13

Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications.

Model-based machine learning

PubMed Central

Bishop, Christopher M.

2013-01-01

Several decades of research in the field of machine learning have resulted in a multitude of different algorithms for solving a broad range of problems. To tackle a new application, a researcher typically tries to map their problem onto one of these existing methods, often influenced by their familiarity with specific algorithms and by the availability of corresponding software implementations. In this study, we describe an alternative methodology for applying machine learning, in which a bespoke solution is formulated for each new application. The solution is expressed through a compact modelling language, and the corresponding custom machine learning code is then generated automatically. This model-based approach offers several major advantages, including the opportunity to create highly tailored models for specific scenarios, as well as rapid prototyping and comparison of a range of alternative models. Furthermore, newcomers to the field of machine learning do not have to learn about the huge range of traditional methods, but instead can focus their attention on understanding a single modelling environment. In this study, we show how probabilistic graphical models, coupled with efficient inference algorithms, provide a very flexible foundation for model-based machine learning, and we outline a large-scale commercial application of this framework involving tens of millions of users. We also describe the concept of probabilistic programming as a powerful software environment for model-based machine learning, and we discuss a specific probabilistic programming language called Infer.NET, which has been widely used in practical applications. PMID:23277612

Portfolios of quantum algorithms.

PubMed

Maurer, S M; Hogg, T; Huberman, B A

2001-12-17

Quantum computation holds promise for the solution of many intractable problems. However, since many quantum algorithms are stochastic in nature they can find the solution of hard problems only probabilistically. Thus the efficiency of the algorithms has to be characterized by both the expected time to completion and the associated variance. In order to minimize both the running time and its uncertainty, we show that portfolios of quantum algorithms analogous to those of finance can outperform single algorithms when applied to the NP-complete problems such as 3-satisfiability.

Cloud-based solution to identify statistically significant MS peaks differentiating sample categories.

PubMed

Ji, Jun; Ling, Jeffrey; Jiang, Helen; Wen, Qiaojun; Whitin, John C; Tian, Lu; Cohen, Harvey J; Ling, Xuefeng B

2013-03-23

Mass spectrometry (MS) has evolved to become the primary high throughput tool for proteomics based biomarker discovery. Until now, multiple challenges in protein MS data analysis remain: large-scale and complex data set management; MS peak identification, indexing; and high dimensional peak differential analysis with the concurrent statistical tests based false discovery rate (FDR). "Turnkey" solutions are needed for biomarker investigations to rapidly process MS data sets to identify statistically significant peaks for subsequent validation. Here we present an efficient and effective solution, which provides experimental biologists easy access to "cloud" computing capabilities to analyze MS data. The web portal can be accessed at http://transmed.stanford.edu/ssa/. Presented web application supplies large scale MS data online uploading and analysis with a simple user interface. This bioinformatic tool will facilitate the discovery of the potential protein biomarkers using MS.

Optical Pulsars and Black Arrows: Discoveries as Occasioned Productions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koschmann, Timothy; Zemel, Alan

2009-01-01

The current article represents a methodological proposal. It seeks to address the question of how one might recognize a discovery as a discovery without knowing in advance what is available to be discovered. We propose a solution and demonstrate it using data from a study previously reported by J. Roschelle (1992). Roschelle investigated 2…

Paths of Discovery: Comparing the Search Effectiveness of EBSCO Discovery Service, Summon, Google Scholar, and Conventional Library Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asher, Andrew D.; Duke, Lynda M.; Wilson, Suzanne

2013-01-01

In 2011, researchers at Bucknell University and Illinois Wesleyan University compared the search efficacy of Serial Solutions Summon, EBSCO Discovery Service, Google Scholar, and conventional library databases. Using a mixed-methods approach, qualitative and quantitative data were gathered on students' usage of these tools. Regardless of the…

Analysis of the Coupled Influence of Hydraulic Conductivity and Porosity Heterogeneity on Probabilistic Risk Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Libera, A.; Henri, C.; de Barros, F.

2017-12-01

Heterogeneities in natural porous formations, mainly manifested through the hydraulic conductivity (K) and, to a lesser degree, the porosity (Φ), largely control subsurface flow and solute transport. The influence of the heterogeneous structure of K on flow and solute transport processes has been widely studied, whereas less attention is dedicated to the joint heterogeneity of conductivity and porosity fields. Our study employs computational tools to investigate the joint effect of the spatial variabilities of K and Φ on the transport behavior of a solute plume. We explore multiple scenarios, characterized by different levels of heterogeneity of the geological system, and compare the computational results from the joint K and Φ heterogeneous system with the results originating from the generally adopted constant porosity case. In our work, we assume that the heterogeneous porosity is positively correlated to hydraulic conductivity. We perform numerical Monte Carlo simulations of conservative and reactive contaminant transport in a 3D aquifer. Contaminant mass and plume arrival times at multiple control planes and/or pumping wells operating under different extraction rates are analyzed. We employ different probabilistic metrics to quantify the risk at the monitoring locations, e.g., increased lifetime cancer risk and exceedance of Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs), under multiple transport scenarios (i.e., different levels of heterogeneity, conservative or reactive solutes and different contaminant species). Results show that early and late arrival times of the solute mass at the selected sensitive locations (i.e. control planes/pumping wells) as well as risk metrics are strongly influenced by the spatial variability of the Φ field.

Solution-Phase Synthesis of a Tricyclic Pyrrole-2-Carboxamide Discovery Library Applying a Stetter-Paal-Knorr Reaction Sequence

PubMed Central

Iyer, Pravin S.; Fodor, Matthew D.; Coleman, Claire M.; Twining, Leslie A.; Mitasev, Branko

2012-01-01

The solution phase synthesis of a discovery library of 178 tricyclic pyrrole-2-carboxamides was accomplished in nine steps and seven purifications starting with three benzoyl protected amino acid methyl esters. Further diversity was introduced by two glyoxaldehydes and forty-one primary amines. The combination of Pauson-Khand, Stetter and microwave assisted Paal Knorr reactions was applied as a key sequence. The discovery library was designed with the help of QikProp 2.1 and physicochemical data are presented for all pyrroles. Library members were synthesized and purified in parallel and analyzed by LC-MS. Selected compounds were fully characterized. PMID:16677007

Automatic discovery of optimal classes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John; Freeman, Don; Self, Matthew

1986-01-01

A criterion, based on Bayes' theorem, is described that defines the optimal set of classes (a classification) for a given set of examples. This criterion is transformed into an equivalent minimum message length criterion with an intuitive information interpretation. This criterion does not require that the number of classes be specified in advance, this is determined by the data. The minimum message length criterion includes the message length required to describe the classes, so there is a built in bias against adding new classes unless they lead to a reduction in the message length required to describe the data. Unfortunately, the search space of possible classifications is too large to search exhaustively, so heuristic search methods, such as simulated annealing, are applied. Tutored learning and probabilistic prediction in particular cases are an important indirect result of optimal class discovery. Extensions to the basic class induction program include the ability to combine category and real value data, hierarchical classes, independent classifications and deciding for each class which attributes are relevant.

VBA: A Probabilistic Treatment of Nonlinear Models for Neurobiological and Behavioural Data

PubMed Central

Daunizeau, Jean; Adam, Vincent; Rigoux, Lionel

2014-01-01

This work is in line with an on-going effort tending toward a computational (quantitative and refutable) understanding of human neuro-cognitive processes. Many sophisticated models for behavioural and neurobiological data have flourished during the past decade. Most of these models are partly unspecified (i.e. they have unknown parameters) and nonlinear. This makes them difficult to peer with a formal statistical data analysis framework. In turn, this compromises the reproducibility of model-based empirical studies. This work exposes a software toolbox that provides generic, efficient and robust probabilistic solutions to the three problems of model-based analysis of empirical data: (i) data simulation, (ii) parameter estimation/model selection, and (iii) experimental design optimization. PMID:24465198

Engaging Students in Designing Movement: The Divergent Discovery Style of Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chatoupis, Constantine

2018-01-01

In the divergent discovery style of teaching the teacher designs problems that engage students in finding multiple solutions. The purpose of this article is to show how physical educators can use the divergent discovery style in the gymnasium. A brief description of this style and its connection to the SHAPE America National Standards for K-12…

Generalised solutions for fully nonlinear PDE systems and existence-uniqueness theorems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katzourakis, Nikos

2017-07-01

We introduce a new theory of generalised solutions which applies to fully nonlinear PDE systems of any order and allows for merely measurable maps as solutions. This approach bypasses the standard problems arising by the application of Distributions to PDEs and is not based on either integration by parts or on the maximum principle. Instead, our starting point builds on the probabilistic representation of derivatives via limits of difference quotients in the Young measures over a toric compactification of the space of jets. After developing some basic theory, as a first application we consider the Dirichlet problem and we prove existence-uniqueness-partial regularity of solutions to fully nonlinear degenerate elliptic 2nd order systems and also existence of solutions to the ∞-Laplace system of vectorial Calculus of Variations in L∞.

Probabilistic Micromechanics and Macromechanics for Ceramic Matrix Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Mital, Subodh K.; Shah, Ashwin R.

1997-01-01

The properties of ceramic matrix composites (CMC's) are known to display a considerable amount of scatter due to variations in fiber/matrix properties, interphase properties, interphase bonding, amount of matrix voids, and many geometry- or fabrication-related parameters, such as ply thickness and ply orientation. This paper summarizes preliminary studies in which formal probabilistic descriptions of the material-behavior- and fabrication-related parameters were incorporated into micromechanics and macromechanics for CMC'S. In this process two existing methodologies, namely CMC micromechanics and macromechanics analysis and a fast probability integration (FPI) technique are synergistically coupled to obtain the probabilistic composite behavior or response. Preliminary results in the form of cumulative probability distributions and information on the probability sensitivities of the response to primitive variables for a unidirectional silicon carbide/reaction-bonded silicon nitride (SiC/RBSN) CMC are presented. The cumulative distribution functions are computed for composite moduli, thermal expansion coefficients, thermal conductivities, and longitudinal tensile strength at room temperature. The variations in the constituent properties that directly affect these composite properties are accounted for via assumed probabilistic distributions. Collectively, the results show that the present technique provides valuable information about the composite properties and sensitivity factors, which is useful to design or test engineers. Furthermore, the present methodology is computationally more efficient than a standard Monte-Carlo simulation technique; and the agreement between the two solutions is excellent, as shown via select examples.

Quantum formalism for classical statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterich, C.

2018-06-01

In static classical statistical systems the problem of information transport from a boundary to the bulk finds a simple description in terms of wave functions or density matrices. While the transfer matrix formalism is a type of Heisenberg picture for this problem, we develop here the associated Schrödinger picture that keeps track of the local probabilistic information. The transport of the probabilistic information between neighboring hypersurfaces obeys a linear evolution equation, and therefore the superposition principle for the possible solutions. Operators are associated to local observables, with rules for the computation of expectation values similar to quantum mechanics. We discuss how non-commutativity naturally arises in this setting. Also other features characteristic of quantum mechanics, such as complex structure, change of basis or symmetry transformations, can be found in classical statistics once formulated in terms of wave functions or density matrices. We construct for every quantum system an equivalent classical statistical system, such that time in quantum mechanics corresponds to the location of hypersurfaces in the classical probabilistic ensemble. For suitable choices of local observables in the classical statistical system one can, in principle, compute all expectation values and correlations of observables in the quantum system from the local probabilistic information of the associated classical statistical system. Realizing a static memory material as a quantum simulator for a given quantum system is not a matter of principle, but rather of practical simplicity.

Seismic hazard exposure for the Trans-Alaska Pipeline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cluff, L.S.; Page, R.A.; Slemmons, D.B.; Grouse, C.B.; ,

2003-01-01

The discovery of oil on Alaska's North Slope and the construction of a pipeline to transport that oil across Alaska coincided with the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and a destructive Southern California earthquake in 1971 to cause stringent stipulations, state-of-the-art investigations, and innovative design for the pipeline. The magnitude 7.9 earthquake on the Denali fault in November 2002 was remarkably consistent with the design earthquake and fault displacement postulated for the Denali crossing of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline route. The pipeline maintained its integrity, and disaster was averted. Recent probabilistic studies to update previous hazard exposure conclusions suggest continuing pipeline integrity.

A probabilistic seismic model for the European Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Juerg; Dyer, Kathleen M.; Pasyanos, Michael E.; Bungum, Hilmar; Faleide, Jan I.; Clark, Stephen A.; Schweitzer, Johannes

2011-01-01

The development of three-dimensional seismic models for the crust and upper mantle has traditionally focused on finding one model that provides the best fit to the data while observing some regularization constraints. In contrast to this, the inversion employed here fits the data in a probabilistic sense and thus provides a quantitative measure of model uncertainty. Our probabilistic model is based on two sources of information: (1) prior information, which is independent from the data, and (2) different geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface wave group velocities, and regional body wave traveltimes. We use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample models from the prior distribution, the set of plausible models, and test them against the data to generate the posterior distribution, the ensemble of models that fit the data with assigned uncertainties. While being computationally more expensive, such a probabilistic inversion provides a more complete picture of solution space and allows us to combine various data sets. The complex geology of the European Arctic, encompassing oceanic crust, continental shelf regions, rift basins and old cratonic crust, as well as the nonuniform coverage of the region by data with varying degrees of uncertainty, makes it a challenging setting for any imaging technique and, therefore, an ideal environment for demonstrating the practical advantages of a probabilistic approach. Maps of depth to basement and depth to Moho derived from the posterior distribution are in good agreement with previously published maps and interpretations of the regional tectonic setting. The predicted uncertainties, which are as important as the absolute values, correlate well with the variations in data coverage and quality in the region. A practical advantage of our probabilistic model is that it can provide estimates for the uncertainties of observables due to model uncertainties. We will demonstrate how this can be used for the formulation of earthquake location algorithms that take model uncertainties into account when estimating location uncertainties.

The Two-Dimensional Gabor Function Adapted to Natural Image Statistics: A Model of Simple-Cell Receptive Fields and Sparse Structure in Images.

PubMed

Loxley, P N

2017-10-01

The two-dimensional Gabor function is adapted to natural image statistics, leading to a tractable probabilistic generative model that can be used to model simple cell receptive field profiles, or generate basis functions for sparse coding applications. Learning is found to be most pronounced in three Gabor function parameters representing the size and spatial frequency of the two-dimensional Gabor function and characterized by a nonuniform probability distribution with heavy tails. All three parameters are found to be strongly correlated, resulting in a basis of multiscale Gabor functions with similar aspect ratios and size-dependent spatial frequencies. A key finding is that the distribution of receptive-field sizes is scale invariant over a wide range of values, so there is no characteristic receptive field size selected by natural image statistics. The Gabor function aspect ratio is found to be approximately conserved by the learning rules and is therefore not well determined by natural image statistics. This allows for three distinct solutions: a basis of Gabor functions with sharp orientation resolution at the expense of spatial-frequency resolution, a basis of Gabor functions with sharp spatial-frequency resolution at the expense of orientation resolution, or a basis with unit aspect ratio. Arbitrary mixtures of all three cases are also possible. Two parameters controlling the shape of the marginal distributions in a probabilistic generative model fully account for all three solutions. The best-performing probabilistic generative model for sparse coding applications is found to be a gaussian copula with Pareto marginal probability density functions.

iPTF14yb: The First Discovery of a Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglow Independent of a High-Energy Trigger

DOE PAGES

Cenko, S. Bradley; Urban, Alex L.; Perley, Daniel A.; ...

2015-04-20

We report here the discovery by the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) of iPTF14yb, a luminous (Msub>r ≈ ₋27.8 mag), cosmological (redshift 1.9733), rapidly fading optical transient. We demonstrate, based on probabilistic arguments and a comparison with the broader population, that iPTF14yb is the optical afterglow of the long-duration gamma-ray burst GRB140226A. This marks the rst unambiguous discovery of a GRB afterglow prior to (and thus entirely independent of) an associated high-energy trigger. We estimate the rate of iPTF14yb-like sources (i.e., cosmologically dis- tant relativistic explosions) based on iPTF observations, inferring an all-sky value ofmore » $$R_{rel}$$ = 610yr -1 (68% con dence interval of 110{2000 yr -1). Our derived rate is consistent (within the large uncer- tainty) with the all-sky rate of on-axis GRBs derived by the Swift satellite. Finally, we brie y discuss the implications of the nondetection to date of bona de \\orphan" afterglows (i.e., those lacking de- tectable high-energy emission) on GRB beaming and the degree of baryon loading in these relativistic jets.« less

Lung tumor diagnosis and subtype discovery by gene expression profiling.

PubMed

Wang, Lu-yong; Tu, Zhuowen

2006-01-01

The optimal treatment of patients with complex diseases, such as cancers, depends on the accurate diagnosis by using a combination of clinical and histopathological data. In many scenarios, it becomes tremendously difficult because of the limitations in clinical presentation and histopathology. To accurate diagnose complex diseases, the molecular classification based on gene or protein expression profiles are indispensable for modern medicine. Moreover, many heterogeneous diseases consist of various potential subtypes in molecular basis and differ remarkably in their response to therapies. It is critical to accurate predict subgroup on disease gene expression profiles. More fundamental knowledge of the molecular basis and classification of disease could aid in the prediction of patient outcome, the informed selection of therapies, and identification of novel molecular targets for therapy. In this paper, we propose a new disease diagnostic method, probabilistic boosting tree (PB tree) method, on gene expression profiles of lung tumors. It enables accurate disease classification and subtype discovery in disease. It automatically constructs a tree in which each node combines a number of weak classifiers into a strong classifier. Also, subtype discovery is naturally embedded in the learning process. Our algorithm achieves excellent diagnostic performance, and meanwhile it is capable of detecting the disease subtype based on gene expression profile.

COMPOSER: A Probabilistic Solution to the Utility Problem in Speed-up Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gratch, Jonathan; DeJong, Gerald

In machine learning there is considerable interest in techniques which improve planning ability. Initial investigations have identified a wide variety of techniques to address this issue. Progress has been hampered by the utility problem, a basic tradeoff between the benefit of learned knowledge and the cost to locate and apply relevant knowledge.…

A Probabilistic-Numerical Approximation for an Obstacle Problem Arising in Game Theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gruen, Christine, E-mail: christine.gruen@univ-brest.fr

We investigate a two-player zero-sum stochastic differential game in which one of the players has more information on the game than his opponent. We show how to construct numerical schemes for the value function of this game, which is given by the solution of a quasilinear partial differential equation with obstacle.

Probabilistic Solution of Inverse Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

AODRESSIl differentI from Conat.oildun 0111C*) It. SECURITY CLASS (ofll ~e vport) Office of Naval Research UCASFE Information Systems ...report describes research done within the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems and the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory at the Massachusetts...analysis of systems endowed with perceptual abilities is the construction of internal representations of the physical structures in the external world

Probabilistic joint inversion of waveforms and polarity data for double-couple focal mechanisms of local earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wéber, Zoltán

2018-06-01

Estimating the mechanisms of small (M < 4) earthquakes is quite challenging. A common scenario is that neither the available polarity data alone nor the well predictable near-station seismograms alone are sufficient to obtain reliable focal mechanism solutions for weak events. To handle this situation we introduce here a new method that jointly inverts waveforms and polarity data following a probabilistic approach. The procedure called joint waveform and polarity (JOWAPO) inversion maps the posterior probability density of the model parameters and estimates the maximum likelihood double-couple mechanism, the optimal source depth and the scalar seismic moment of the investigated event. The uncertainties of the solution are described by confidence regions. We have validated the method on two earthquakes for which well-determined focal mechanisms are available. The validation tests show that including waveforms in the inversion considerably reduces the uncertainties of the usually poorly constrained polarity solutions. The JOWAPO method performs best when it applies waveforms from at least two seismic stations. If the number of the polarity data is large enough, even single-station JOWAPO inversion can produce usable solutions. When only a few polarities are available, however, single-station inversion may result in biased mechanisms. In this case some caution must be taken when interpreting the results. We have successfully applied the JOWAPO method to an earthquake in North Hungary, whose mechanism could not be estimated by long-period waveform inversion. Using 17 P-wave polarities and waveforms at two nearby stations, the JOWAPO method produced a well-constrained focal mechanism. The solution is very similar to those obtained previously for four other events that occurred in the same earthquake sequence. The analysed event has a strike-slip mechanism with a P axis oriented approximately along an NE-SW direction.

Modeling and analysis of cell membrane systems with probabilistic model checking

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Recently there has been a growing interest in the application of Probabilistic Model Checking (PMC) for the formal specification of biological systems. PMC is able to exhaustively explore all states of a stochastic model and can provide valuable insight into its behavior which are more difficult to see using only traditional methods for system analysis such as deterministic and stochastic simulation. In this work we propose a stochastic modeling for the description and analysis of sodium-potassium exchange pump. The sodium-potassium pump is a membrane transport system presents in all animal cell and capable of moving sodium and potassium ions against their concentration gradient. Results We present a quantitative formal specification of the pump mechanism in the PRISM language, taking into consideration a discrete chemistry approach and the Law of Mass Action aspects. We also present an analysis of the system using quantitative properties in order to verify the pump reversibility and understand the pump behavior using trend labels for the transition rates of the pump reactions. Conclusions Probabilistic model checking can be used along with other well established approaches such as simulation and differential equations to better understand pump behavior. Using PMC we can determine if specific events happen such as the potassium outside the cell ends in all model traces. We can also have a more detailed perspective on its behavior such as determining its reversibility and why its normal operation becomes slow over time. This knowledge can be used to direct experimental research and make it more efficient, leading to faster and more accurate scientific discoveries. PMID:22369714

Optimally Stopped Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinci, Walter; Lidar, Daniel A.

2016-11-01

We combine the fields of heuristic optimization and optimal stopping. We propose a strategy for benchmarking randomized optimization algorithms that minimizes the expected total cost for obtaining a good solution with an optimal number of calls to the solver. To do so, rather than letting the objective function alone define a cost to be minimized, we introduce a further cost-per-call of the algorithm. We show that this problem can be formulated using optimal stopping theory. The expected cost is a flexible figure of merit for benchmarking probabilistic solvers that can be computed when the optimal solution is not known and that avoids the biases and arbitrariness that affect other measures. The optimal stopping formulation of benchmarking directly leads to a real-time optimal-utilization strategy for probabilistic optimizers with practical impact. We apply our formulation to benchmark simulated annealing on a class of maximum-2-satisfiability (MAX2SAT) problems. We also compare the performance of a D-Wave 2X quantum annealer to the Hamze-Freitas-Selby (HFS) solver, a specialized classical heuristic algorithm designed for low-tree-width graphs. On a set of frustrated-loop instances with planted solutions defined on up to N =1098 variables, the D-Wave device is 2 orders of magnitude faster than the HFS solver, and, modulo known caveats related to suboptimal annealing times, exhibits identical scaling with problem size.

Personal discovery in diabetes self-management: Discovering cause and effect using self-monitoring data

PubMed Central

Mamykina, Lena; Heitkemper, Elizabeth M.; Smaldone, Arlene M.; Kukafka, Rita; Cole-Lewis, Heather J.; Davidson, Patricia G.; Mynatt, Elizabeth D.; Cassells, Andrea; Tobin, Jonathan N.; Hripcsak, George

2017-01-01

Objective To outline new design directions for informatics solutions that facilitate personal discovery with self-monitoring data. We investigate this question in the context of chronic disease self-management with the focus on type 2 diabetes. Materials and methods We conducted an observational qualitative study of discovery with personal data among adults attending a diabetes self-management education (DSME) program that utilized a discovery-based curriculum. The study included observations of class sessions, and interviews and focus groups with the educator and attendees of the program (n = 14). Results The main discovery in diabetes self-management evolved around discovering patterns of association between characteristics of individuals’ activities and changes in their blood glucose levels that the participants referred to as “cause and effect”. This discovery empowered individuals to actively engage in self-management and provided a desired flexibility in selection of personalized self-management strategies. We show that discovery of cause and effect involves four essential phases: (1) feature selection, (2) hypothesis generation, (3) feature evaluation, and (4) goal specification. Further, we identify opportunities to support discovery at each stage with informatics and data visualization solutions by providing assistance with: (1) active manipulation of collected data (e.g., grouping, filtering and side-by-side inspection), (2) hypotheses formulation (e.g., using natural language statements or constructing visual queries), (3) inference evaluation (e.g., through aggregation and visual comparison, and statistical analysis of associations), and (4) translation of discoveries into actionable goals (e.g., tailored selection from computable knowledge sources of effective diabetes self-management behaviors). Discussion The study suggests that discovery of cause and effect in diabetes can be a powerful approach to helping individuals to improve their self-management strategies, and that self-monitoring data can serve as a driving engine for personal discovery that may lead to sustainable behavior changes. Conclusions Enabling personal discovery is a promising new approach to enhancing chronic disease self-management with informatics interventions. PMID:28974460

Personal discovery in diabetes self-management: Discovering cause and effect using self-monitoring data.

PubMed

Mamykina, Lena; Heitkemper, Elizabeth M; Smaldone, Arlene M; Kukafka, Rita; Cole-Lewis, Heather J; Davidson, Patricia G; Mynatt, Elizabeth D; Cassells, Andrea; Tobin, Jonathan N; Hripcsak, George

2017-12-01

To outline new design directions for informatics solutions that facilitate personal discovery with self-monitoring data. We investigate this question in the context of chronic disease self-management with the focus on type 2 diabetes. We conducted an observational qualitative study of discovery with personal data among adults attending a diabetes self-management education (DSME) program that utilized a discovery-based curriculum. The study included observations of class sessions, and interviews and focus groups with the educator and attendees of the program (n = 14). The main discovery in diabetes self-management evolved around discovering patterns of association between characteristics of individuals' activities and changes in their blood glucose levels that the participants referred to as "cause and effect". This discovery empowered individuals to actively engage in self-management and provided a desired flexibility in selection of personalized self-management strategies. We show that discovery of cause and effect involves four essential phases: (1) feature selection, (2) hypothesis generation, (3) feature evaluation, and (4) goal specification. Further, we identify opportunities to support discovery at each stage with informatics and data visualization solutions by providing assistance with: (1) active manipulation of collected data (e.g., grouping, filtering and side-by-side inspection), (2) hypotheses formulation (e.g., using natural language statements or constructing visual queries), (3) inference evaluation (e.g., through aggregation and visual comparison, and statistical analysis of associations), and (4) translation of discoveries into actionable goals (e.g., tailored selection from computable knowledge sources of effective diabetes self-management behaviors). The study suggests that discovery of cause and effect in diabetes can be a powerful approach to helping individuals to improve their self-management strategies, and that self-monitoring data can serve as a driving engine for personal discovery that may lead to sustainable behavior changes. Enabling personal discovery is a promising new approach to enhancing chronic disease self-management with informatics interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic Structures Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The basic formulation for probabilistic finite element analysis is described and demonstrated on a few sample problems. This formulation is based on iterative perturbation that uses the factorized stiffness on the unperturbed system as the iteration preconditioner for obtaining the solution to the perturbed problem. This approach eliminates the need to compute, store and manipulate explicit partial derivatives of the element matrices and force vector, which not only reduces memory usage considerably, but also greatly simplifies the coding and validation tasks. All aspects for the proposed formulation were combined in a demonstration problem using a simplified model of a curved turbine blade discretized with 48 shell elements, and having random pressure and temperature fields with partial correlation, random uniform thickness, and random stiffness at the root.

A probabilistic model of a porous heat exchanger

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, O. P.; Lin, X. A.

1995-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic one-dimensional finite element model for heat transfer processes in porous heat exchangers. The Galerkin approach is used to develop the finite element matrices. Some of the submatrices are asymmetric due to the presence of the flow term. The Neumann expansion is used to write the temperature distribution as a series of random variables, and the expectation operator is applied to obtain the mean and deviation statistics. To demonstrate the feasibility of the formulation, a one-dimensional model of heat transfer phenomenon in superfluid flow through a porous media is considered. Results of this formulation agree well with the Monte-Carlo simulations and the analytical solutions. Although the numerical experiments are confined to parametric random variables, a formulation is presented to account for the random spatial variations.

Non-thermal atmospheric pressure plasma activates lactate in Ringer’s solution for anti-tumor effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiromasa; Nakamura, Kae; Mizuno, Masaaki; Ishikawa, Kenji; Takeda, Keigo; Kajiyama, Hiroaki; Utsumi, Fumi; Kikkawa, Fumitaka; Hori, Masaru

2016-11-01

Non-thermal atmospheric pressure plasma is a novel approach for wound healing, blood coagulation, and cancer therapy. A recent discovery in the field of plasma medicine is that non-thermal atmospheric pressure plasma not only directly but also indirectly affects cells via plasma-treated liquids. This discovery has led to the use of non-thermal atmospheric pressure plasma as a novel chemotherapy. We refer to these plasma-treated liquids as plasma-activated liquids. We chose Ringer’s solutions to produce plasma-activated liquids for clinical applications. In vitro and in vivo experiments demonstrated that plasma-activated Ringer’s lactate solution has anti-tumor effects, but of the four components in Ringer’s lactate solution, only lactate exhibited anti-tumor effects through activation by non-thermal plasma. Nuclear magnetic resonance analyses indicate that plasma irradiation generates acetyl and pyruvic acid-like groups in Ringer’s lactate solution. Overall, these results suggest that plasma-activated Ringer’s lactate solution is promising for chemotherapy.

UXDs-Driven Transferring Method from TRIZ Solution to Domain Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Lihui; Cao, Guozhong; Chang, Yunxia; Wei, Zihui; Ma, Kai

The translation process from TRIZ solutions to domain solutions is an analogy-based process. TRIZ solutions, such as 40 inventive principles and the related cases, are medium-solutions for domain problems. Unexpected discoveries (UXDs) are the key factors to trigger designers to generate new ideas for domain solutions. The Algorithm of UXD resolving based on Means-Ends Analysis(MEA) is studied and an UXDs-driven transferring method from TRIZ solution to domain solution is formed. A case study shows the application of the process.

Evaluating the Science of Discovery in Complex Health Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Norman, Cameron D.; Best, Allan; Mortimer, Sharon; Huerta, Timothy; Buchan, Alison

2011-01-01

Complex health problems such as chronic disease or pandemics require knowledge that transcends disciplinary boundaries to generate solutions. Such transdisciplinary discovery requires researchers to work and collaborate across boundaries, combining elements of basic and applied science. At the same time, calls for more interdisciplinary health…

Uncertainty Estimation in Tsunami Initial Condition From Rapid Bayesian Finite Fault Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, R. F.; Dettmer, J.; Cummins, P. R.; Urrutia, A.; Cienfuegos, R.

2017-12-01

It is well known that kinematic rupture models for a given earthquake can present discrepancies even when similar datasets are employed in the inversion process. While quantifying this variability can be critical when making early estimates of the earthquake and triggered tsunami impact, "most likely models" are normally used for this purpose. In this work, we quantify the uncertainty of the tsunami initial condition for the great Illapel earthquake (Mw = 8.3, 2015, Chile). We focus on utilizing data and inversion methods that are suitable to rapid source characterization yet provide meaningful and robust results. Rupture models from teleseismic body and surface waves as well as W-phase are derived and accompanied by Bayesian uncertainty estimates from linearized inversion under positivity constraints. We show that robust and consistent features about the rupture kinematics appear when working within this probabilistic framework. Moreover, by using static dislocation theory, we translate the probabilistic slip distributions into seafloor deformation which we interpret as a tsunami initial condition. After considering uncertainty, our probabilistic seafloor deformation models obtained from different data types appear consistent with each other providing meaningful results. We also show that selecting just a single "representative" solution from the ensemble of initial conditions for tsunami propagation may lead to overestimating information content in the data. Our results suggest that rapid, probabilistic rupture models can play a significant role during emergency response by providing robust information about the extent of the disaster.

Feasibility study on the use of probabilistic migration modeling in support of exposure assessment from food contact materials.

PubMed

Poças, Maria F; Oliveira, Jorge C; Brandsch, Rainer; Hogg, Timothy

2010-07-01

The use of probabilistic approaches in exposure assessments of contaminants migrating from food packages is of increasing interest but the lack of concentration or migration data is often referred as a limitation. Data accounting for the variability and uncertainty that can be expected in migration, for example, due to heterogeneity in the packaging system, variation of the temperature along the distribution chain, and different time of consumption of each individual package, are required for probabilistic analysis. The objective of this work was to characterize quantitatively the uncertainty and variability in estimates of migration. A Monte Carlo simulation was applied to a typical solution of the Fick's law with given variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed based on experimental data of a model system (migration of Irgafos 168 from polyethylene into isooctane) and illustrates how important sources of variability and uncertainty can be identified in order to refine analyses. For long migration times and controlled conditions of temperature the affinity of the migrant to the food can be the major factor determining the variability in the migration values (more than 70% of variance). In situations where both the time of consumption and temperature can vary, these factors can be responsible, respectively, for more than 60% and 20% of the variance in the migration estimates. The approach presented can be used with databases from consumption surveys to yield a true probabilistic estimate of exposure.

A bioinformatics knowledge discovery in text application for grid computing

PubMed Central

Castellano, Marcello; Mastronardi, Giuseppe; Bellotti, Roberto; Tarricone, Gianfranco

2009-01-01

Background A fundamental activity in biomedical research is Knowledge Discovery which has the ability to search through large amounts of biomedical information such as documents and data. High performance computational infrastructures, such as Grid technologies, are emerging as a possible infrastructure to tackle the intensive use of Information and Communication resources in life science. The goal of this work was to develop a software middleware solution in order to exploit the many knowledge discovery applications on scalable and distributed computing systems to achieve intensive use of ICT resources. Methods The development of a grid application for Knowledge Discovery in Text using a middleware solution based methodology is presented. The system must be able to: perform a user application model, process the jobs with the aim of creating many parallel jobs to distribute on the computational nodes. Finally, the system must be aware of the computational resources available, their status and must be able to monitor the execution of parallel jobs. These operative requirements lead to design a middleware to be specialized using user application modules. It included a graphical user interface in order to access to a node search system, a load balancing system and a transfer optimizer to reduce communication costs. Results A middleware solution prototype and the performance evaluation of it in terms of the speed-up factor is shown. It was written in JAVA on Globus Toolkit 4 to build the grid infrastructure based on GNU/Linux computer grid nodes. A test was carried out and the results are shown for the named entity recognition search of symptoms and pathologies. The search was applied to a collection of 5,000 scientific documents taken from PubMed. Conclusion In this paper we discuss the development of a grid application based on a middleware solution. It has been tested on a knowledge discovery in text process to extract new and useful information about symptoms and pathologies from a large collection of unstructured scientific documents. As an example a computation of Knowledge Discovery in Database was applied on the output produced by the KDT user module to extract new knowledge about symptom and pathology bio-entities. PMID:19534749

A bioinformatics knowledge discovery in text application for grid computing.

PubMed

Castellano, Marcello; Mastronardi, Giuseppe; Bellotti, Roberto; Tarricone, Gianfranco

2009-06-16

A fundamental activity in biomedical research is Knowledge Discovery which has the ability to search through large amounts of biomedical information such as documents and data. High performance computational infrastructures, such as Grid technologies, are emerging as a possible infrastructure to tackle the intensive use of Information and Communication resources in life science. The goal of this work was to develop a software middleware solution in order to exploit the many knowledge discovery applications on scalable and distributed computing systems to achieve intensive use of ICT resources. The development of a grid application for Knowledge Discovery in Text using a middleware solution based methodology is presented. The system must be able to: perform a user application model, process the jobs with the aim of creating many parallel jobs to distribute on the computational nodes. Finally, the system must be aware of the computational resources available, their status and must be able to monitor the execution of parallel jobs. These operative requirements lead to design a middleware to be specialized using user application modules. It included a graphical user interface in order to access to a node search system, a load balancing system and a transfer optimizer to reduce communication costs. A middleware solution prototype and the performance evaluation of it in terms of the speed-up factor is shown. It was written in JAVA on Globus Toolkit 4 to build the grid infrastructure based on GNU/Linux computer grid nodes. A test was carried out and the results are shown for the named entity recognition search of symptoms and pathologies. The search was applied to a collection of 5,000 scientific documents taken from PubMed. In this paper we discuss the development of a grid application based on a middleware solution. It has been tested on a knowledge discovery in text process to extract new and useful information about symptoms and pathologies from a large collection of unstructured scientific documents. As an example a computation of Knowledge Discovery in Database was applied on the output produced by the KDT user module to extract new knowledge about symptom and pathology bio-entities.

Classical symmetric fourth degree potential systems in probabilistic evolution theoretical perspective: Most facilitative conicalization and squarification of telescope matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gözükırmızı, Coşar; Kırkın, Melike Ebru

2017-01-01

Probabilistic evolution theory (PREVTH) provides a powerful framework for the solution of initial value problems of explicit ordinary differential equation sets with second degree multinomial right hand side functions. The use of the recursion between squarified telescope matrices provides the opportunity to obtain accurate results without much effort. Convergence may be considered as one of the drawbacks of PREVTH. It is related to many factors: the initial values and the coefficients in the right hand side functions are the most apparent ones. If a space extension is utilized before PREVTH, the convergence of PREVTH may also be affected by how the space extension is performed. There are works about implementations related to probabilistic evolution and how to improve the convergence by methods like analytic continuation. These works were written before squarification was introduced. Since recursion between squarified telescope matrices has given us the opportunity to obtain results corresponding to relatively higher truncation levels, it is important to obtain and analyze results related to certain problems in different areas of engineering. This manuscript may be considered to be in a series of papers and conference proceedings which serves for this purpose.

Systematic prediction of gene function in Arabidopsis thaliana using a probabilistic functional gene network

PubMed Central

Hwang, Sohyun; Rhee, Seung Y; Marcotte, Edward M; Lee, Insuk

2012-01-01

AraNet is a functional gene network for the reference plant Arabidopsis and has been constructed in order to identify new genes associated with plant traits. It is highly predictive for diverse biological pathways and can be used to prioritize genes for functional screens. Moreover, AraNet provides a web-based tool with which plant biologists can efficiently discover novel functions of Arabidopsis genes (http://www.functionalnet.org/aranet/). This protocol explains how to conduct network-based prediction of gene functions using AraNet and how to interpret the prediction results. Functional discovery in plant biology is facilitated by combining candidate prioritization by AraNet with focused experimental tests. PMID:21886106

Conceptual Tools for Understanding Nature - Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costa, G.; Calucci, M.

1997-04-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Foreword * Some Limits of Science and Scientists * Three Limits of Scientific Knowledge * On Features and Meaning of Scientific Knowledge * How Science Approaches the World: Risky Truths versus Misleading Certitudes * On Discovery and Justification * Thought Experiments: A Philosophical Analysis * Causality: Epistemological Questions and Cognitive Answers * Scientific Inquiry via Rational Hypothesis Revision * Probabilistic Epistemology * The Transferable Belief Model for Uncertainty Representation * Chemistry and Complexity * The Difficult Epistemology of Medicine * Epidemiology, Causality and Medical Anthropology * Conceptual Tools for Transdisciplinary Unified Theory * Evolution and Learning in Economic Organizations * The Possible Role of Symmetry in Physics and Cosmology * Observational Cosmology and/or other Imaginable Models of the Universe

A review of estimation of distribution algorithms in bioinformatics

PubMed Central

Armañanzas, Rubén; Inza, Iñaki; Santana, Roberto; Saeys, Yvan; Flores, Jose Luis; Lozano, Jose Antonio; Peer, Yves Van de; Blanco, Rosa; Robles, Víctor; Bielza, Concha; Larrañaga, Pedro

2008-01-01

Evolutionary search algorithms have become an essential asset in the algorithmic toolbox for solving high-dimensional optimization problems in across a broad range of bioinformatics problems. Genetic algorithms, the most well-known and representative evolutionary search technique, have been the subject of the major part of such applications. Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) offer a novel evolutionary paradigm that constitutes a natural and attractive alternative to genetic algorithms. They make use of a probabilistic model, learnt from the promising solutions, to guide the search process. In this paper, we set out a basic taxonomy of EDA techniques, underlining the nature and complexity of the probabilistic model of each EDA variant. We review a set of innovative works that make use of EDA techniques to solve challenging bioinformatics problems, emphasizing the EDA paradigm's potential for further research in this domain. PMID:18822112

A Probabilistic Approach to Interior Regularity of Fully Nonlinear Degenerate Elliptic Equations in Smooth Domains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou Wei, E-mail: zhoux123@umn.edu

2013-06-15

We consider the value function of a stochastic optimal control of degenerate diffusion processes in a domain D. We study the smoothness of the value function, under the assumption of the non-degeneracy of the diffusion term along the normal to the boundary and an interior condition weaker than the non-degeneracy of the diffusion term. When the diffusion term, drift term, discount factor, running payoff and terminal payoff are all in the class of C{sup 1,1}( D-bar ) , the value function turns out to be the unique solution in the class of C{sub loc}{sup 1,1}(D) Intersection C{sup 0,1}( D-bar )more » to the associated degenerate Bellman equation with Dirichlet boundary data. Our approach is probabilistic.« less

Knowledge Retrieval Solutions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khan, Kamran

1998-01-01

Excalibur RetrievalWare offers true knowledge retrieval solutions. Its fundamental technologies, Adaptive Pattern Recognition Processing and Semantic Networks, have capabilities for knowledge discovery and knowledge management of full-text, structured and visual information. The software delivers a combination of accuracy, extensibility,…

Using NCAR Yellowstone for PhotoVoltaic Power Forecasts with Artificial Neural Networks and an Analog Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervone, G.; Clemente-Harding, L.; Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.

2016-12-01

A methodology based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and an Analog Ensemble (AnEn) is presented to generate 72-hour deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of power generated by photovoltaic (PV) power plants using input from a numerical weather prediction model and computed astronomical variables. ANN and AnEn are used individually and in combination to generate forecasts for three solar power plant located in Italy. The computational scalability of the proposed solution is tested using synthetic data simulating 4,450 PV power stations. The NCAR Yellowstone supercomputer is employed to test the parallel implementation of the proposed solution, ranging from 1 node (32 cores) to 4,450 nodes (141,140 cores). Results show that a combined AnEn + ANN solution yields best results, and that the proposed solution is well suited for massive scale computation.

Medical entomology--back to the future?

PubMed

Reisen, William K

2014-12-01

Some of problems and challenges facing Medical/Veterinary Entomology are presented from my perspective, focusing on the current millennium. Topics include anthropogenic environmental changes created by population growth, administrative problems hindering science's response to these changes, and some of the scientific discoveries potentially providing solutions. As the title implies, many recent research discoveries have yet to be translated into major changes in control approaches for the major vectorborne public health problems, thereby providing an interesting mix of modern surveillance technology used to track problems and direct historical intervention solutions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-dimensional vector semantics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrecut, M.

In this paper we explore the “vector semantics” problem from the perspective of “almost orthogonal” property of high-dimensional random vectors. We show that this intriguing property can be used to “memorize” random vectors by simply adding them, and we provide an efficient probabilistic solution to the set membership problem. Also, we discuss several applications to word context vector embeddings, document sentences similarity, and spam filtering.

Adaptive Decision Making Using Probabilistic Programming and Stochastic Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-01-01

world optimization problems (and hence 16 Approved for Public Release (PA); Distribution Unlimited Pred. demand (uncertain; discrete ...simplify the setting, we further assume that the demands are discrete , taking on values d1, . . . , dk with probabilities (conditional on x) (pθ)i ≡ p...Tyrrell Rockafellar. Implicit functions and solution mappings. Springer Monogr. Math ., 2009. Anthony V Fiacco and Yo Ishizuka. Sensitivity and stability

Face Verification across Age Progression using Discriminative Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

progression. The most related study to our work is [30], where the probabilistic eigenspace frame - work [22] is adapted for face identification across...solution has the same CAR and CRR, is frequently used to measure verification performance, B. Gradient Orientation and Gradient Orientation Pyramid Now we...proposed GOP representation. The other five approaches are different from our method in both representations and classification frame - works. For

Single photons from a gain medium below threshold

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sanjib; Liew, Timothy C. H.

2018-06-01

The emission from a nonlinear photonic mode coupled weakly to a gain medium operating below threshold is predicted to exhibit antibunching. In the steady state regime, analytical solutions for the relevant observable quantities are found in accurate agreement with exact numerical results. Under pulsed excitation, the unequal time second-order correlation function demonstrates the triggered probabilistic generation of single photons well separated in time.

FindIt@Flinders: User Experiences of the Primo Discovery Search Solution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarrett, Kylie

2012-01-01

In September 2011, Flinders University Library launched FindIt@Flinders, the Primo discovery layer search to provide simultaneous results from the Library's collections and subscription databases. This research project was an exploratory case study which aimed to show whether students were finding relevant information for their course learning and…

A Polymer "Pollution Solution" Classroom Activity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helser, Terry L.

1996-01-01

Explains an approach to presenting polymer chemistry to nonmajors that employs polystyrene foam, foam peanuts made from water soluble starch, and water soluble plastic bags. Students are presented with a pollution scenario and are guided to the discovery of solutions. (DDR)

Optimal radiotherapy dose schedules under parametric uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badri, Hamidreza; Watanabe, Yoichi; Leder, Kevin

2016-01-01

We consider the effects of parameter uncertainty on the optimal radiation schedule in the context of the linear-quadratic model. Our interest arises from the observation that if inter-patient variability in normal and tumor tissue radiosensitivity or sparing factor of the organs-at-risk (OAR) are not accounted for during radiation scheduling, the performance of the therapy may be strongly degraded or the OAR may receive a substantially larger dose than the allowable threshold. This paper proposes a stochastic radiation scheduling concept to incorporate inter-patient variability into the scheduling optimization problem. Our method is based on a probabilistic approach, where the model parameters are given by a set of random variables. Our probabilistic formulation ensures that our constraints are satisfied with a given probability, and that our objective function achieves a desired level with a stated probability. We used a variable transformation to reduce the resulting optimization problem to two dimensions. We showed that the optimal solution lies on the boundary of the feasible region and we implemented a branch and bound algorithm to find the global optimal solution. We demonstrated how the configuration of optimal schedules in the presence of uncertainty compares to optimal schedules in the absence of uncertainty (conventional schedule). We observed that in order to protect against the possibility of the model parameters falling into a region where the conventional schedule is no longer feasible, it is required to avoid extremal solutions, i.e. a single large dose or very large total dose delivered over a long period. Finally, we performed numerical experiments in the setting of head and neck tumors including several normal tissues to reveal the effect of parameter uncertainty on optimal schedules and to evaluate the sensitivity of the solutions to the choice of key model parameters.

Development of Scientific Approach Based on Discovery Learning Module

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellizar, E.; Hardeli, H.; Beltris, S.; Suharni, R.

2018-04-01

Scientific Approach is a learning process, designed to make the students actively construct their own knowledge through stages of scientific method. The scientific approach in learning process can be done by using learning modules. One of the learning model is discovery based learning. Discovery learning is a learning model for the valuable things in learning through various activities, such as observation, experience, and reasoning. In fact, the students’ activity to construct their own knowledge were not optimal. It’s because the available learning modules were not in line with the scientific approach. The purpose of this study was to develop a scientific approach discovery based learning module on Acid Based, also on electrolyte and non-electrolyte solution. The developing process of this chemistry modules use the Plomp Model with three main stages. The stages are preliminary research, prototyping stage, and the assessment stage. The subject of this research was the 10th and 11th Grade of Senior High School students (SMAN 2 Padang). Validation were tested by the experts of Chemistry lecturers and teachers. Practicality of these modules had been tested through questionnaire. The effectiveness had been tested through experimental procedure by comparing student achievement between experiment and control groups. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that the developed scientific approach discovery based learning module significantly improve the students’ learning in Acid-based and Electrolyte solution. The result of the data analysis indicated that the chemistry module was valid in content, construct, and presentation. Chemistry module also has a good practicality level and also accordance with the available time. This chemistry module was also effective, because it can help the students to understand the content of the learning material. That’s proved by the result of learning student. Based on the result can conclude that chemistry module based on discovery learning and scientific approach in electrolyte and non-electrolyte solution and Acid Based for the 10th and 11th grade of senior high school students were valid, practice, and effective.

Changing paradigm from one target one ligand towards multi target directed ligand design for key drug targets of Alzheimer disease: An important role of Insilco methods in multi target directed ligands design.

PubMed

Kumar, Akhil; Tiwari, Ashish; Sharma, Ashok

2018-03-15

Alzheimer disease (AD) is now considered as a multifactorial neurodegenerative disorder and rapidly increasing to an alarming situation and causing higher death rate. One target one ligand hypothesis is not able to provide complete solution of AD due to multifactorial nature of disease and one target one drug seems to fail to provide better treatment against AD. Moreover, current available treatments are limited and most of the upcoming treatments under clinical trials are based on modulating single target. So the current AD drug discovery research shifting towards new approach for better solution that simultaneously modulate more than one targets in the neurodegenerative cascade. This can be achieved by network pharmacology, multi-modal therapies, multifaceted, and/or the more recently proposed term "multi-targeted designed drugs. Drug discovery project is tedious, costly and long term project. Moreover, multi target AD drug discovery added extra challenges such as good binding affinity of ligands for multiple targets, optimal ADME/T properties, no/less off target side effect and crossing of the blood brain barrier. These hurdles may be addressed by insilico methods for efficient solution in less time and cost as computational methods successfully applied to single target drug discovery project. Here we are summarizing some of the most prominent and computationally explored single target against AD and further we discussed successful example of dual or multiple inhibitors for same targets. Moreover we focused on ligand and structure based computational approach to design MTDL against AD. However is not an easy task to balance dual activity in a single molecule but computational approach such as virtual screening docking, QSAR, simulation and free energy are useful in future MTDLs drug discovery alone or in combination with fragment based method. However, rational and logical implementations of computational drug designing methods are capable of assisting AD drug discovery and play an important role in optimizing multi-target drug discovery. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Resident Space Object Characterization and Behavior Understanding via Machine Learning and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furfaro, R.; Linares, R.; Gaylor, D.; Jah, M.; Walls, R.

2016-09-01

In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach that employs machine learning techniques and Ontology-based Bayesian Networks (BN) to characterize the behavior of resident space objects. State-of-the-Art machine learning architectures (e.g. Extreme Learning Machines, Convolutional Deep Networks) are trained on physical models to learn the Resident Space Object (RSO) features in the vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters. The mapping from measurements to vectorized energy and momentum states and parameters enables behavior characterization via clustering in the features space and subsequent RSO classification. Additionally, Space Object Behavioral Ontologies (SOBO) are employed to define and capture the domain knowledge-base (KB) and BNs are constructed from the SOBO in a semi-automatic fashion to execute probabilistic reasoning over conclusions drawn from trained classifiers and/or directly from processed data. Such an approach enables integrating machine learning classifiers and probabilistic reasoning to support higher-level decision making for space domain awareness applications. The innovation here is to use these methods (which have enjoyed great success in other domains) in synergy so that it enables a "from data to discovery" paradigm by facilitating the linkage and fusion of large and disparate sources of information via a Big Data Science and Analytics framework.

Comparison of bias analysis strategies applied to a large data set.

PubMed

Lash, Timothy L; Abrams, Barbara; Bodnar, Lisa M

2014-07-01

Epidemiologic data sets continue to grow larger. Probabilistic-bias analyses, which simulate hundreds of thousands of replications of the original data set, may challenge desktop computational resources. We implemented a probabilistic-bias analysis to evaluate the direction, magnitude, and uncertainty of the bias arising from misclassification of prepregnancy body mass index when studying its association with early preterm birth in a cohort of 773,625 singleton births. We compared 3 bias analysis strategies: (1) using the full cohort, (2) using a case-cohort design, and (3) weighting records by their frequency in the full cohort. Underweight and overweight mothers were more likely to deliver early preterm. A validation substudy demonstrated misclassification of prepregnancy body mass index derived from birth certificates. Probabilistic-bias analyses suggested that the association between underweight and early preterm birth was overestimated by the conventional approach, whereas the associations between overweight categories and early preterm birth were underestimated. The 3 bias analyses yielded equivalent results and challenged our typical desktop computing environment. Analyses applied to the full cohort, case cohort, and weighted full cohort required 7.75 days and 4 terabytes, 15.8 hours and 287 gigabytes, and 8.5 hours and 202 gigabytes, respectively. Large epidemiologic data sets often include variables that are imperfectly measured, often because data were collected for other purposes. Probabilistic-bias analysis allows quantification of errors but may be difficult in a desktop computing environment. Solutions that allow these analyses in this environment can be achieved without new hardware and within reasonable computational time frames.

Probabilistic Scenario-based Seismic Risk Analysis for Critical Infrastructures Method and Application for a Nuclear Power Plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klügel, J.

2006-12-01

Deterministic scenario-based seismic hazard analysis has a long tradition in earthquake engineering for developing the design basis of critical infrastructures like dams, transport infrastructures, chemical plants and nuclear power plants. For many applications besides of the design of infrastructures it is of interest to assess the efficiency of the design measures taken. These applications require a method allowing to perform a meaningful quantitative risk analysis. A new method for a probabilistic scenario-based seismic risk analysis has been developed based on a probabilistic extension of proven deterministic methods like the MCE- methodology. The input data required for the method are entirely based on the information which is necessary to perform any meaningful seismic hazard analysis. The method is based on the probabilistic risk analysis approach common for applications in nuclear technology developed originally by Kaplan & Garrick (1981). It is based (1) on a classification of earthquake events into different size classes (by magnitude), (2) the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of events, assigned to the different classes (frequency of initiating events, (3) the development of bounding critical scenarios assigned to each class based on the solution of an optimization problem and (4) in the evaluation of the conditional probability of exceedance of critical design parameters (vulnerability analysis). The advantage of the method in comparison with traditional PSHA consists in (1) its flexibility, allowing to use different probabilistic models for earthquake occurrence as well as to incorporate advanced physical models into the analysis, (2) in the mathematically consistent treatment of uncertainties, and (3) in the explicit consideration of the lifetime of the critical structure as a criterion to formulate different risk goals. The method was applied for the evaluation of the risk of production interruption losses of a nuclear power plant during its residual lifetime.

Process model-based atomic service discovery and composition of composite semantic web services using web ontology language for services (OWL-S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulraj, D.; Swamynathan, S.; Madhaiyan, M.

2012-11-01

Web Service composition has become indispensable as a single web service cannot satisfy complex functional requirements. Composition of services has received much interest to support business-to-business (B2B) or enterprise application integration. An important component of the service composition is the discovery of relevant services. In Semantic Web Services (SWS), service discovery is generally achieved by using service profile of Ontology Web Languages for Services (OWL-S). The profile of the service is a derived and concise description but not a functional part of the service. The information contained in the service profile is sufficient for atomic service discovery, but it is not sufficient for the discovery of composite semantic web services (CSWS). The purpose of this article is two-fold: first to prove that the process model is a better choice than the service profile for service discovery. Second, to facilitate the composition of inter-organisational CSWS by proposing a new composition method which uses process ontology. The proposed service composition approach uses an algorithm which performs a fine grained match at the level of atomic process rather than at the level of the entire service in a composite semantic web service. Many works carried out in this area have proposed solutions only for the composition of atomic services and this article proposes a solution for the composition of composite semantic web services.

Territories typification technique with use of statistical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galkin, V. I.; Rastegaev, A. V.; Seredin, V. V.; Andrianov, A. V.

2018-05-01

Territories typification is required for solution of many problems. The results of geological zoning received by means of various methods do not always agree. That is why the main goal of the research given is to develop a technique of obtaining a multidimensional standard classified indicator for geological zoning. In the course of the research, the probabilistic approach was used. In order to increase the reliability of geological information classification, the authors suggest using complex multidimensional probabilistic indicator P K as a criterion of the classification. The second criterion chosen is multidimensional standard classified indicator Z. These can serve as characteristics of classification in geological-engineering zoning. Above mentioned indicators P K and Z are in good correlation. Correlation coefficient values for the entire territory regardless of structural solidity equal r = 0.95 so each indicator can be used in geological-engineering zoning. The method suggested has been tested and the schematic map of zoning has been drawn.

Probabilistic power flow using improved Monte Carlo simulation method with correlated wind sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bie, Pei; Zhang, Buhan; Li, Hang; Deng, Weisi; Wu, Jiasi

2017-01-01

Probabilistic Power Flow (PPF) is a very useful tool for power system steady-state analysis. However, the correlation among different random injection power (like wind power) brings great difficulties to calculate PPF. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and analytical methods are two commonly used methods to solve PPF. MCS has high accuracy but is very time consuming. Analytical method like cumulants method (CM) has high computing efficiency but the cumulants calculating is not convenient when wind power output does not obey any typical distribution, especially when correlated wind sources are considered. In this paper, an Improved Monte Carlo simulation method (IMCS) is proposed. The joint empirical distribution is applied to model different wind power output. This method combines the advantages of both MCS and analytical method. It not only has high computing efficiency, but also can provide solutions with enough accuracy, which is very suitable for on-line analysis.

Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2018-01-23

Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

On the probabilistic structure of water age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porporato, Amilcare; Calabrese, Salvatore

2015-05-01

The age distribution of water in hydrologic systems has received renewed interest recently, especially in relation to watershed response to rainfall inputs. The purpose of this contribution is first to draw attention to existing theories of age distributions in population dynamics, fluid mechanics and stochastic groundwater, and in particular to the McKendrick-von Foerster equation and its generalizations and solutions. A second and more important goal is to clarify that, when hydrologic fluxes are modeled by means of time-varying stochastic processes, the age distributions must themselves be treated as random functions. Once their probabilistic structure is obtained, it can be used to characterize the variability of age distributions in real systems and thus help quantify the inherent uncertainty in the field determination of water age. We illustrate these concepts with reference to a stochastic storage model, which has been used as a minimalist model of soil moisture and streamflow dynamics.

Probabilistic sharing solves the problem of costly punishment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaojie; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2014-08-01

Cooperators that refuse to participate in sanctioning defectors create the second-order free-rider problem. Such cooperators will not be punished because they contribute to the public good, but they also eschew the costs associated with punishing defectors. Altruistic punishers—those that cooperate and punish—are at a disadvantage, and it is puzzling how such behaviour has evolved. We show that sharing the responsibility to sanction defectors rather than relying on certain individuals to do so permanently can solve the problem of costly punishment. Inspired by the fact that humans have strong but also emotional tendencies for fair play, we consider probabilistic sanctioning as the simplest way of distributing the duty. In well-mixed populations the public goods game is transformed into a coordination game with full cooperation and defection as the two stable equilibria, while in structured populations pattern formation supports additional counterintuitive solutions that are reminiscent of Parrondo's paradox.

Enhancing Learning Environments through Solution-based Knowledge Discovery Tools: Forecasting for Self-Perpetuating Systemic Reform.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsantis, Linda; Castellani, John

2001-01-01

This article explores how knowledge-discovery applications can empower educators with the information they need to provide anticipatory guidance for teaching and learning, forecast school and district needs, and find critical markers for making the best program decisions for children and youth with disabilities. Data mining for schools is…

National Synchrotron Light Source II

ScienceCinema

Hill, John; Dooryhee, Eric; Wilkins, Stuart; Miller, Lisa; Chu, Yong

2018-01-16

NSLS-II is a synchrotron light source helping researchers explore solutions to the grand energy challenges faced by the nation, and open up new regimes of scientific discovery that will pave the way to discoveries in physics, chemistry, and biology — advances that will ultimately enhance national security and help drive the development of abundant, safe, and clean energy technologies.

Matrix Recipes for Hard Thresholding Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-07

have been proposed to approximate the solution. In [11], Donoho et al . demonstrate that, in the sparse approximation problem, under basic incoherence...inducing convex surrogate ‖ · ‖1 with provable guarantees for unique signal recovery. In the ARM problem, Fazel et al . [12] identified the nuclear norm...sparse recovery for all. Technical report, EPFL, 2011 . [25] N. Halko , P. G. Martinsson, and J. A. Tropp. Finding structure with randomness: Probabilistic

[Forecast of costs of ecodependent cancer treatment for the development of management decisions].

PubMed

Krasovskiy, V O

2014-01-01

The methodical approach for probabilistic forecasting and differentiation of treatment of costs of ecodependent cancer cases has been elaborated. The modality is useful in the organization of medical aid to cancer patients, in developing management decisions for the reduction the occupational load on the population, as well as in solutions problems in compensation to the population economic and social loss from industrial plants.

Probabilistic Tracklet Characterization and Prioritization Using Admissible Regions

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

of deter- mining the potential threat of the object and obtaining further measurements. The solution to this problem is confounded in scenarios with...association and track initiation tasks. Well before their use in data association for asteroids and SOs, admissible regions have been used in stochastic...logic resource management.14 Milani et al.15 first proposed using ARs to assist in the optical detection and discrimination of asteroids . This work is

Representing Learning With Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a unified qualitative and quantitative framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. Their development and use spans several fields including artificial intelligence, decision theory and statistics, and provides an important bridge between these communities. This paper shows by way of example that these models can be extended to machine learning, neural networks and knowledge discovery by representing the notion of a sample on the graphical model. Not only does this allow a flexible variety of learning problems to be represented, it also provides the means for representing the goal of learning and opens the way for the automatic development of learning algorithms from specifications.

Efficient exact motif discovery.

PubMed

Marschall, Tobias; Rahmann, Sven

2009-06-15

The motif discovery problem consists of finding over-represented patterns in a collection of biosequences. It is one of the classical sequence analysis problems, but still has not been satisfactorily solved in an exact and efficient manner. This is partly due to the large number of possibilities of defining the motif search space and the notion of over-representation. Even for well-defined formalizations, the problem is frequently solved in an ad hoc manner with heuristics that do not guarantee to find the best motif. We show how to solve the motif discovery problem (almost) exactly on a practically relevant space of IUPAC generalized string patterns, using the p-value with respect to an i.i.d. model or a Markov model as the measure of over-representation. In particular, (i) we use a highly accurate compound Poisson approximation for the null distribution of the number of motif occurrences. We show how to compute the exact clump size distribution using a recently introduced device called probabilistic arithmetic automaton (PAA). (ii) We define two p-value scores for over-representation, the first one based on the total number of motif occurrences, the second one based on the number of sequences in a collection with at least one occurrence. (iii) We describe an algorithm to discover the optimal pattern with respect to either of the scores. The method exploits monotonicity properties of the compound Poisson approximation and is by orders of magnitude faster than exhaustive enumeration of IUPAC strings (11.8 h compared with an extrapolated runtime of 4.8 years). (iv) We justify the use of the proposed scores for motif discovery by showing our method to outperform other motif discovery algorithms (e.g. MEME, Weeder) on benchmark datasets. We also propose new motifs on Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The method has been implemented in Java. It can be obtained from http://ls11-www.cs.tu-dortmund.de/people/marschal/paa_md/.

Free-Energy-Based Design Policy for Robust Network Control against Environmental Fluctuation.

PubMed

Iwai, Takuya; Kominami, Daichi; Murata, Masayuki; Yomo, Tetsuya

2015-01-01

Bioinspired network control is a promising approach for realizing robust network controls. It relies on a probabilistic mechanism composed of positive and negative feedback that allows the system to eventually stabilize on the best solution. When the best solution fails due to environmental fluctuation, the system cannot keep its function until the system finds another solution again. To prevent the temporal loss of the function, the system should prepare some solution candidates and stochastically select available one from them. However, most bioinspired network controls are not designed with this issue in mind. In this paper, we propose a thermodynamics-based design policy that allows systems to retain an appropriate degree of randomness depending on the degree of environmental fluctuation, which prepares the system for the occurrence of environmental fluctuation. Furthermore, we verify the design policy by using an attractor selection model-based multipath routing to run simulation experiments.

Modified reactive tabu search for the symmetric traveling salesman problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Yai-Fung; Hong, Pei-Yee; Ramli, Razamin; Khalid, Ruzelan

2013-09-01

Reactive tabu search (RTS) is an improved method of tabu search (TS) and it dynamically adjusts tabu list size based on how the search is performed. RTS can avoid disadvantage of TS which is in the parameter tuning in tabu list size. In this paper, we proposed a modified RTS approach for solving symmetric traveling salesman problems (TSP). The tabu list size of the proposed algorithm depends on the number of iterations when the solutions do not override the aspiration level to achieve a good balance between diversification and intensification. The proposed algorithm was tested on seven chosen benchmarked problems of symmetric TSP. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the TS by using empirical testing, benchmark solution and simple probabilistic analysis in order to validate the quality of solution. The computational results and comparisons show that the proposed algorithm provides a better quality solution than that of the TS.

Assessment of uncertainty in discrete fracture network modeling using probabilistic distribution method.

PubMed

Wei, Yaqiang; Dong, Yanhui; Yeh, Tian-Chyi J; Li, Xiao; Wang, Liheng; Zha, Yuanyuan

2017-11-01

There have been widespread concerns about solute transport problems in fractured media, e.g. the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in geological fractured rocks. Numerical simulation of particle tracking is gradually being employed to address these issues. Traditional predictions of radioactive waste transport using discrete fracture network (DFN) models often consider one particular realization of the fracture distribution based on fracture statistic features. This significantly underestimates the uncertainty of the risk of radioactive waste deposit evaluation. To adequately assess the uncertainty during the DFN modeling in a potential site for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, this paper utilized the probabilistic distribution method (PDM). The method was applied to evaluate the risk of nuclear waste deposit in Beishan, China. Moreover, the impact of the number of realizations on the simulation results was analyzed. In particular, the differences between the modeling results of one realization and multiple realizations were demonstrated. Probabilistic distributions of 20 realizations at different times were also obtained. The results showed that the employed PDM can be used to describe the ranges of the contaminant particle transport. The high-possibility contaminated areas near the release point were more concentrated than the farther areas after 5E6 days, which was 25,400 m 2 .

Learning Orthographic Structure With Sequential Generative Neural Networks.

PubMed

Testolin, Alberto; Stoianov, Ivilin; Sperduti, Alessandro; Zorzi, Marco

2016-04-01

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in connectionist modeling. Here, we investigated a sequential version of the restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM), a stochastic recurrent neural network that extracts high-order structure from sensory data through unsupervised generative learning and can encode contextual information in the form of internal, distributed representations. We assessed whether this type of network can extract the orthographic structure of English monosyllables by learning a generative model of the letter sequences forming a word training corpus. We show that the network learned an accurate probabilistic model of English graphotactics, which can be used to make predictions about the letter following a given context as well as to autonomously generate high-quality pseudowords. The model was compared to an extended version of simple recurrent networks, augmented with a stochastic process that allows autonomous generation of sequences, and to non-connectionist probabilistic models (n-grams and hidden Markov models). We conclude that sequential RBMs and stochastic simple recurrent networks are promising candidates for modeling cognition in the temporal domain. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A probabilistic bridge safety evaluation against floods.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Wei; Muto, Yasunori; Chen, Wei-Lun; Wu, Bang-Ho

2016-01-01

To further capture the influences of uncertain factors on river bridge safety evaluation, a probabilistic approach is adopted. Because this is a systematic and nonlinear problem, MPP-based reliability analyses are not suitable. A sampling approach such as a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or importance sampling is often adopted. To enhance the efficiency of the sampling approach, this study utilizes Bayesian least squares support vector machines to construct a response surface followed by an MCS, providing a more precise safety index. Although there are several factors impacting the flood-resistant reliability of a bridge, previous experiences and studies show that the reliability of the bridge itself plays a key role. Thus, the goal of this study is to analyze the system reliability of a selected bridge that includes five limit states. The random variables considered here include the water surface elevation, water velocity, local scour depth, soil property and wind load. Because the first three variables are deeply affected by river hydraulics, a probabilistic HEC-RAS-based simulation is performed to capture the uncertainties in those random variables. The accuracy and variation of our solutions are confirmed by a direct MCS to ensure the applicability of the proposed approach. The results of a numerical example indicate that the proposed approach can efficiently provide an accurate bridge safety evaluation and maintain satisfactory variation.

Hydrophilic Inorganic Macro-Ions in Solution: Unprecedented Self-Assembly Emerging from Historical "Blue Waters"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Tianbo; Diemann, Ekkehard; Muller, Achim

2007-01-01

For more than 200 years, the beautiful "molybdenum blue solutions" have been a puzzle for chemists because they could not determine the molecular structures of the solutes while experiments showing the Tyndall effect proved the presence of "giant species". This problem was finally solved in Bielefeld. As a result of this discovery, novel inorganic…

Divide et impera: subgoaling reduces the complexity of probabilistic inference and problem solving

PubMed Central

Maisto, Domenico; Donnarumma, Francesco; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2015-01-01

It has long been recognized that humans (and possibly other animals) usually break problems down into smaller and more manageable problems using subgoals. Despite a general consensus that subgoaling helps problem solving, it is still unclear what the mechanisms guiding online subgoal selection are during the solution of novel problems for which predefined solutions are not available. Under which conditions does subgoaling lead to optimal behaviour? When is subgoaling better than solving a problem from start to finish? Which is the best number and sequence of subgoals to solve a given problem? How are these subgoals selected during online inference? Here, we present a computational account of subgoaling in problem solving. Following Occam's razor, we propose that good subgoals are those that permit planning solutions and controlling behaviour using less information resources, thus yielding parsimony in inference and control. We implement this principle using approximate probabilistic inference: subgoals are selected using a sampling method that considers the descriptive complexity of the resulting sub-problems. We validate the proposed method using a standard reinforcement learning benchmark (four-rooms scenario) and show that the proposed method requires less inferential steps and permits selecting more compact control programs compared to an equivalent procedure without subgoaling. Furthermore, we show that the proposed method offers a mechanistic explanation of the neuronal dynamics found in the prefrontal cortex of monkeys that solve planning problems. Our computational framework provides a novel integrative perspective on subgoaling and its adaptive advantages for planning, control and learning, such as for example lowering cognitive effort and working memory load. PMID:25652466

PCM-SABRE: a platform for benchmarking and comparing outcome prediction methods in precision cancer medicine.

PubMed

Eyal-Altman, Noah; Last, Mark; Rubin, Eitan

2017-01-17

Numerous publications attempt to predict cancer survival outcome from gene expression data using machine-learning methods. A direct comparison of these works is challenging for the following reasons: (1) inconsistent measures used to evaluate the performance of different models, and (2) incomplete specification of critical stages in the process of knowledge discovery. There is a need for a platform that would allow researchers to replicate previous works and to test the impact of changes in the knowledge discovery process on the accuracy of the induced models. We developed the PCM-SABRE platform, which supports the entire knowledge discovery process for cancer outcome analysis. PCM-SABRE was developed using KNIME. By using PCM-SABRE to reproduce the results of previously published works on breast cancer survival, we define a baseline for evaluating future attempts to predict cancer outcome with machine learning. We used PCM-SABRE to replicate previous work that describe predictive models of breast cancer recurrence, and tested the performance of all possible combinations of feature selection methods and data mining algorithms that was used in either of the works. We reconstructed the work of Chou et al. observing similar trends - superior performance of Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms and inconclusive impact of feature pre-selection with the decision tree algorithm on subsequent analysis. PCM-SABRE is a software tool that provides an intuitive environment for rapid development of predictive models in cancer precision medicine.

MSblender: A probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines.

PubMed

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I; Marcotte, Edward M

2011-07-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for every possible PSM and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for most proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses.

MSblender: a probabilistic approach for integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines

PubMed Central

Kwon, Taejoon; Choi, Hyungwon; Vogel, Christine; Nesvizhskii, Alexey I.; Marcotte, Edward M.

2011-01-01

Shotgun proteomics using mass spectrometry is a powerful method for protein identification but suffers limited sensitivity in complex samples. Integrating peptide identifications from multiple database search engines is a promising strategy to increase the number of peptide identifications and reduce the volume of unassigned tandem mass spectra. Existing methods pool statistical significance scores such as p-values or posterior probabilities of peptide-spectrum matches (PSMs) from multiple search engines after high scoring peptides have been assigned to spectra, but these methods lack reliable control of identification error rates as data are integrated from different search engines. We developed a statistically coherent method for integrative analysis, termed MSblender. MSblender converts raw search scores from search engines into a probability score for all possible PSMs and properly accounts for the correlation between search scores. The method reliably estimates false discovery rates and identifies more PSMs than any single search engine at the same false discovery rate. Increased identifications increment spectral counts for all detected proteins and allow quantification of proteins that would not have been quantified by individual search engines. We also demonstrate that enhanced quantification contributes to improve sensitivity in differential expression analyses. PMID:21488652

Probabilistic Learning in Junior High School: Investigation of Student Probabilistic Thinking Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurniasih, R.; Sujadi, I.

2017-09-01

This paper was to investigate level on students’ probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking level is level of probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is thinking about probabilistic or uncertainty matter in probability material. The research’s subject was students in grade 8th Junior High School students. The main instrument is a researcher and a supporting instrument is probabilistic thinking skills test and interview guidelines. Data was analyzed using triangulation method. The results showed that the level of students probabilistic thinking before obtaining a teaching opportunity at the level of subjective and transitional. After the students’ learning level probabilistic thinking is changing. Based on the results of research there are some students who have in 8th grade level probabilistic thinking numerically highest of levels. Level of students’ probabilistic thinking can be used as a reference to make a learning material and strategy.

Evaluation of computing systems using functionals of a Stochastic process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.; Wu, L. T.

1980-01-01

An intermediate model was used to represent the probabilistic nature of a total system at a level which is higher than the base model and thus closer to the performance variable. A class of intermediate models, which are generally referred to as functionals of a Markov process, were considered. A closed form solution of performability for the case where performance is identified with the minimum value of a functional was developed.

Computing preimages of Boolean networks.

PubMed

Klotz, Johannes; Bossert, Martin; Schober, Steffen

2013-01-01

In this paper we present an algorithm based on the sum-product algorithm that finds elements in the preimage of a feed-forward Boolean networks given an output of the network. Our probabilistic method runs in linear time with respect to the number of nodes in the network. We evaluate our algorithm for randomly constructed Boolean networks and a regulatory network of Escherichia coli and found that it gives a valid solution in most cases.

Probabilistic Modeling and Simulation of Metal Fatigue Life Prediction

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-09-01

distribution demonstrate the central limit theorem? Obviously not! This is much the same as materials testing. If only NBA basketball stars are...60 near the exit of a NBA locker room. There would obviously be some pseudo-normal distribution with a very small standard deviation. The mean...completed, the investigators must understand how the midgets and the NBA stars will affect the total solution. D. IT IS MUCH SIMPLER TO MODEL THE

Segmentation of the Globus Pallidus Internus Using Probabilistic Diffusion Tractography for Deep Brain Stimulation Targeting in Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Middlebrooks, E H; Tuna, I S; Grewal, S S; Almeida, L; Heckman, M G; Lesser, E R; Foote, K D; Okun, M S; Holanda, V M

2018-06-01

Although globus pallidus internus deep brain stimulation is a widely accepted treatment for Parkinson disease, there is persistent variability in outcomes that is not yet fully understood. In this pilot study, we aimed to investigate the potential role of globus pallidus internus segmentation using probabilistic tractography as a supplement to traditional targeting methods. Eleven patients undergoing globus pallidus internus deep brain stimulation were included in this retrospective analysis. Using multidirection diffusion-weighted MR imaging, we performed probabilistic tractography at all individual globus pallidus internus voxels. Each globus pallidus internus voxel was then assigned to the 1 ROI with the greatest number of propagated paths. On the basis of deep brain stimulation programming settings, the volume of tissue activated was generated for each patient using a finite element method solution. For each patient, the volume of tissue activated within each of the 10 segmented globus pallidus internus regions was calculated and examined for association with a change in the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale, Part III score before and after treatment. Increasing volume of tissue activated was most strongly correlated with a change in the Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale, Part III score for the primary motor region (Spearman r = 0.74, P = .010), followed by the supplementary motor area/premotor cortex (Spearman r = 0.47, P = .15). In this pilot study, we assessed a novel method of segmentation of the globus pallidus internus based on probabilistic tractography as a supplement to traditional targeting methods. Our results suggest that our method may be an independent predictor of deep brain stimulation outcome, and evaluation of a larger cohort or prospective study is warranted to validate these findings. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Applying probabilistic temporal and multisite data quality control methods to a public health mortality registry in Spain: a systematic approach to quality control of repositories.

PubMed

Sáez, Carlos; Zurriaga, Oscar; Pérez-Panadés, Jordi; Melchor, Inma; Robles, Montserrat; García-Gómez, Juan M

2016-11-01

To assess the variability in data distributions among data sources and over time through a case study of a large multisite repository as a systematic approach to data quality (DQ). Novel probabilistic DQ control methods based on information theory and geometry are applied to the Public Health Mortality Registry of the Region of Valencia, Spain, with 512 143 entries from 2000 to 2012, disaggregated into 24 health departments. The methods provide DQ metrics and exploratory visualizations for (1) assessing the variability among multiple sources and (2) monitoring and exploring changes with time. The methods are suited to big data and multitype, multivariate, and multimodal data. The repository was partitioned into 2 probabilistically separated temporal subgroups following a change in the Spanish National Death Certificate in 2009. Punctual temporal anomalies were noticed due to a punctual increment in the missing data, along with outlying and clustered health departments due to differences in populations or in practices. Changes in protocols, differences in populations, biased practices, or other systematic DQ problems affected data variability. Even if semantic and integration aspects are addressed in data sharing infrastructures, probabilistic variability may still be present. Solutions include fixing or excluding data and analyzing different sites or time periods separately. A systematic approach to assessing temporal and multisite variability is proposed. Multisite and temporal variability in data distributions affects DQ, hindering data reuse, and an assessment of such variability should be a part of systematic DQ procedures. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madankan, R.; Pouget, S.; Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This papermore » presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.« less

The analysis of probability task completion; Taxonomy of probabilistic thinking-based across gender in elementary school students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sari, Dwi Ivayana; Budayasa, I. Ketut; Juniati, Dwi

2017-08-01

Formulation of mathematical learning goals now is not only oriented on cognitive product, but also leads to cognitive process, which is probabilistic thinking. Probabilistic thinking is needed by students to make a decision. Elementary school students are required to develop probabilistic thinking as foundation to learn probability at higher level. A framework of probabilistic thinking of students had been developed by using SOLO taxonomy, which consists of prestructural probabilistic thinking, unistructural probabilistic thinking, multistructural probabilistic thinking and relational probabilistic thinking. This study aimed to analyze of probability task completion based on taxonomy of probabilistic thinking. The subjects were two students of fifth grade; boy and girl. Subjects were selected by giving test of mathematical ability and then based on high math ability. Subjects were given probability tasks consisting of sample space, probability of an event and probability comparison. The data analysis consisted of categorization, reduction, interpretation and conclusion. Credibility of data used time triangulation. The results was level of boy's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated multistructural probabilistic thinking, while level of girl's probabilistic thinking in completing probability tasks indicated unistructural probabilistic thinking. The results indicated that level of boy's probabilistic thinking was higher than level of girl's probabilistic thinking. The results could contribute to curriculum developer in developing probability learning goals for elementary school students. Indeed, teachers could teach probability with regarding gender difference.

Estimating uncertainties in complex joint inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afonso, Juan Carlos

2016-04-01

Sources of uncertainty affecting geophysical inversions can be classified either as reflective (i.e. the practitioner is aware of her/his ignorance) or non-reflective (i.e. the practitioner does not know that she/he does not know!). Although we should be always conscious of the latter, the former are the ones that, in principle, can be estimated either empirically (by making measurements or collecting data) or subjectively (based on the experience of the researchers). For complex parameter estimation problems in geophysics, subjective estimation of uncertainty is the most common type. In this context, probabilistic (aka Bayesian) methods are commonly claimed to offer a natural and realistic platform from which to estimate model uncertainties. This is because in the Bayesian approach, errors (whatever their nature) can be naturally included as part of the global statistical model, the solution of which represents the actual solution to the inverse problem. However, although we agree that probabilistic inversion methods are the most powerful tool for uncertainty estimation, the common claim that they produce "realistic" or "representative" uncertainties is not always justified. Typically, ALL UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATES ARE MODEL DEPENDENT, and therefore, besides a thorough characterization of experimental uncertainties, particular care must be paid to the uncertainty arising from model errors and input uncertainties. We recall here two quotes by G. Box and M. Gunzburger, respectively, of special significance for inversion practitioners and for this session: "…all models are wrong, but some are useful" and "computational results are believed by no one, except the person who wrote the code". In this presentation I will discuss and present examples of some problems associated with the estimation and quantification of uncertainties in complex multi-observable probabilistic inversions, and how to address them. Although the emphasis will be on sources of uncertainty related to the forward and statistical models, I will also address other uncertainties associated with data and uncertainty propagation.

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghanem, Roger; Knio, Omar

2000-01-01

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Molecular basis of high viscosity in concentrated antibody solutions: Strategies for high concentration drug product development.

PubMed

Tomar, Dheeraj S; Kumar, Sandeep; Singh, Satish K; Goswami, Sumit; Li, Li

2016-01-01

Effective translation of breakthrough discoveries into innovative products in the clinic requires proactive mitigation or elimination of several drug development challenges. These challenges can vary depending upon the type of drug molecule. In the case of therapeutic antibody candidates, a commonly encountered challenge is high viscosity of the concentrated antibody solutions. Concentration-dependent viscosity behaviors of mAbs and other biologic entities may depend on pairwise and higher-order intermolecular interactions, non-native aggregation, and concentration-dependent fluctuations of various antibody regions. This article reviews our current understanding of molecular origins of viscosity behaviors of antibody solutions. We discuss general strategies and guidelines to select low viscosity candidates or optimize lead candidates for lower viscosity at early drug discovery stages. Moreover, strategies for formulation optimization and excipient design are also presented for candidates already in advanced product development stages. Potential future directions for research in this field are also explored.

Evolution of Cosmology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, Charles H.

2005-04-01

Aristotle thought that the universe was finite and Earth centered. Newton thought that it was infinite. Einstein guessed that the universe was finite, spherical, static, warped, and closed. Hubble's 1930 discovery of the expanding universe, Penzias and Wilson's 1968 discovery of the isotropic CMB, and measurements on light element abundances, however, established a big bang origin. Vera Rubin's 1980 dark matter discovery significantly impacted contending theories. However, 1998 is the year when sufficiently accurate supernova and primordial deuterium data was available to truly explore the universe. CMB anisotropy measurements further extended our cosmological database in 2003. On the theoretical side, Friedmann's 1922 perturbation solution of Einstein's general relativity equations for a static universe has shaped the thought and direction in cosmology for the past 80 years. It describes 3D space as a dynamic function of time. However, 80 years of trying to fit Friedmann's solution to observational data has been a bumpy road - resulting in such counter-intuitive, but necessary, features as rapid inflation, precision tuning, esoteric dark matter, and an accelerating input of esoteric dark energy.

Geometrodynamics: the nonlinear dynamics of curved spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheel, M. A.; Thorne, K. S.

2014-04-01

We review discoveries in the nonlinear dynamics of curved spacetime, largely made possible by numerical solutions of Einstein's equations. We discuss critical phenomena and self-similarity in gravitational collapse, the behavior of spacetime curvature near singularities, the instability of black strings in five spacetime dimensions, and the collision of four-dimensional black holes. We also discuss the prospects for further discoveries in geometrodynamics via observations of gravitational waves.

Discovery and Optimization of Low-Storage Runge-Kutta Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS DISCOVERY AND OPTIMIZATION OF LOW-STORAGE RUNGE-KUTTA METHODS by Matthew T. Fletcher June 2015... methods are an important family of iterative methods for approximating the solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and differential...algebraic equations (DAEs). It is common to use an RK method to discretize in time when solving time dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) with a

Symmetry breaking and uniqueness for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dascaliuc, Radu; Thomann, Enrique; Waymire, Edward C., E-mail: waymire@math.oregonstate.edu

2015-07-15

The present article establishes connections between the structure of the deterministic Navier-Stokes equations and the structure of (similarity) equations that govern self-similar solutions as expected values of certain naturally associated stochastic cascades. A principle result is that explosion criteria for the stochastic cascades involved in the probabilistic representations of solutions to the respective equations coincide. While the uniqueness problem itself remains unresolved, these connections provide interesting problems and possible methods for investigating symmetry breaking and the uniqueness problem for Navier-Stokes equations. In particular, new branching Markov chains, including a dilogarithmic branching random walk on the multiplicative group (0, ∞), naturallymore » arise as a result of this investigation.« less

Symmetry breaking and uniqueness for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

PubMed

Dascaliuc, Radu; Michalowski, Nicholas; Thomann, Enrique; Waymire, Edward C

2015-07-01

The present article establishes connections between the structure of the deterministic Navier-Stokes equations and the structure of (similarity) equations that govern self-similar solutions as expected values of certain naturally associated stochastic cascades. A principle result is that explosion criteria for the stochastic cascades involved in the probabilistic representations of solutions to the respective equations coincide. While the uniqueness problem itself remains unresolved, these connections provide interesting problems and possible methods for investigating symmetry breaking and the uniqueness problem for Navier-Stokes equations. In particular, new branching Markov chains, including a dilogarithmic branching random walk on the multiplicative group (0, ∞), naturally arise as a result of this investigation.

Probabilistic Modeling of Settlement Risk at Land Disposal Facilities - 12304

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foye, Kevin C.; Soong, Te-Yang

2012-07-01

The long-term reliability of land disposal facility final cover systems - and therefore the overall waste containment - depends on the distortions imposed on these systems by differential settlement/subsidence. The evaluation of differential settlement is challenging because of the heterogeneity of the waste mass (caused by inconsistent compaction, void space distribution, debris-soil mix ratio, waste material stiffness, time-dependent primary compression of the fine-grained soil matrix, long-term creep settlement of the soil matrix and the debris, etc.) at most land disposal facilities. Deterministic approaches to long-term final cover settlement prediction are not able to capture the spatial variability in the wastemore » mass and sub-grade properties which control differential settlement. An alternative, probabilistic solution is to use random fields to model the waste and sub-grade properties. The modeling effort informs the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of land disposal facilities. A probabilistic method to establish design criteria for waste placement and compaction is introduced using the model. Random fields are ideally suited to problems of differential settlement modeling of highly heterogeneous foundations, such as waste. Random fields model the seemingly random spatial distribution of a design parameter, such as compressibility. When used for design, the use of these models prompts the need for probabilistic design criteria. It also allows for a statistical approach to waste placement acceptance criteria. An example design evaluation was performed, illustrating the use of the probabilistic differential settlement simulation methodology to assemble a design guidance chart. The purpose of this design evaluation is to enable the designer to select optimal initial combinations of design slopes and quality control acceptance criteria that yield an acceptable proportion of post-settlement slopes meeting some design minimum. For this specific example, relative density, which can be determined through field measurements, was selected as the field quality control parameter for waste placement. This technique can be extended to include a rigorous performance-based methodology using other parameters (void space criteria, debris-soil mix ratio, pre-loading, etc.). As shown in this example, each parameter range, or sets of parameter ranges can be selected such that they can result in an acceptable, long-term differential settlement according to the probabilistic model. The methodology can also be used to re-evaluate the long-term differential settlement behavior at closed land disposal facilities to identify, if any, problematic facilities so that remedial action (e.g., reinforcement of upper and intermediate waste layers) can be implemented. Considering the inherent spatial variability in waste and earth materials and the need for engineers to apply sound quantitative practices to engineering analysis, it is important to apply the available probabilistic techniques to problems of differential settlement. One such method to implement probability-based differential settlement analyses for the design of landfill final covers has been presented. The design evaluation technique presented is one tool to bridge the gap from deterministic practice to probabilistic practice. (authors)« less

Service Discovery Oriented Management System Construction Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Huawei; Ren, Ying

2017-10-01

In order to solve the problem that there is no uniform method for design service quality management system in large-scale complex service environment, this paper proposes a distributed service-oriented discovery management system construction method. Three measurement functions are proposed to compute nearest neighbor user similarity at different levels. At present in view of the low efficiency of service quality management systems, three solutions are proposed to improve the efficiency of the system. Finally, the key technologies of distributed service quality management system based on service discovery are summarized through the factor addition and subtraction of quantitative experiment.

Automated Historical and Real-Time Cyclone Discovery With Multimodal Remote Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, S.; Talukder, A.; Liu, T.; Tang, W.; Bingham, A.

2008-12-01

Existing cyclone detection and tracking solutions involve extensive manual analysis of modeled-data and field campaign data by teams of experts. We have developed a novel automated global cyclone detection and tracking system by assimilating and sharing information from multiple remote satellites. This unprecedented solution of combining multiple remote satellite measurements in an autonomous manner allows leveraging off the strengths of each individual satellite. Use of multiple satellite data sources also results in significantly improved temporal tracking accuracy for cyclones. Our solution involves an automated feature extraction and machine learning technique based on an ensemble classifier and Kalman filter for cyclone detection and tracking from multiple heterogeneous satellite data sources. Our feature-based methodology that focuses on automated cyclone discovery is fundamentally different from, and actually complements, the well-known Dvorak technique for cyclone intensity estimation (that often relies on manual detection of cyclonic regions) from field and remote data. Our solution currently employs the QuikSCAT wind measurement and the merged level 3 TRMM precipitation data for automated cyclone discovery. Assimilation of other types of remote measurements is ongoing and planned in the near future. Experimental results of our automated solution on historical cyclone datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our automated approach compared to previous work. Performance of our detection solution compares favorably against the list of cyclones occurring in North Atlantic Ocean for the 2005 calendar year reported by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in our initial analysis. We have also demonstrated the robustness of our cyclone tracking methodology in other regions over the world by using multiple heterogeneous satellite data for detection and tracking of three arbitrary historical cyclones in other regions. Our cyclone detection and tracking methodology can be applied to (i) historical data to support Earth scientists in climate modeling, cyclonic-climate interactions, and obtain a better understanding of the cause and effects of cyclone (e.g. cyclo-genesis), and (ii) automatic cyclone discovery in near real-time using streaming satellite to support and improve the planning of global cyclone field campaigns. Additional satellite data from GOES and other orbiting satellites can be easily assimilated and integrated into our automated cyclone detection and tracking module to improve the temporal tracking accuracy of cyclones down to ½ hr and reduce the incidence of false alarms.

Comoving Stars in Gaia DR1: An Abundance of Very Wide Separation Comoving Pairs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Semyeong; Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Hogg, David W.; Morton, Timothy D.; Spergel, David N.

2017-06-01

The primary sample of the Gaia Data Release 1 is the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS): ≈2 million Tycho-2 sources with improved parallaxes and proper motions relative to the initial catalog. This increased astrometric precision presents an opportunity to find new binary stars and moving groups. We search for high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS by identifying pairs of stars consistent with having the same 3D velocity using a marginalized likelihood ratio test to discriminate candidate comoving pairs from the field population. Although we perform some visualizations using (bias-corrected) inverse parallax as a point estimate of distance, the likelihood ratio is computed with a probabilistic model that includes the covariances of parallax and proper motions and marginalizes the (unknown) true distances and 3D velocities of the stars. We find 13,085 comoving star pairs among 10,606 unique stars with separations as large as 10 pc (our search limit). Some of these pairs form larger groups through mutual comoving neighbors: many of these pair networks correspond to known open clusters and OB associations, but we also report the discovery of several new comoving groups. Most surprisingly, we find a large number of very wide (> 1 pc) separation comoving star pairs, the number of which increases with increasing separation and cannot be explained purely by false-positive contamination. Our key result is a catalog of high-confidence comoving pairs of stars in TGAS. We discuss the utility of this catalog for making dynamical inferences about the Galaxy, testing stellar atmosphere models, and validating chemical abundance measurements.

Probabilistic Analysis of Algorithms for NP-Complete Problems

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-29

LASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE DTIC FILE COPY i PO ATO PAGEm ’ Forn Approvedii IONO PAGE I iMB NO. 07040188 .... "....... b . RESTRICTIVE MARKINGSECTE D...0790 3. DISTRIBUTION IAVAILABILITY OF REPORTAD-A217 880 -- ApprvdnrPU1l Qroo; B distr’ibutil unli mit od. .... .S. MONITORING...efficiently solves P in bouncded probability under D. I1 b ) A finds a solution to an instance of P chosen randomly according to D in time bounded by a

Meta-heuristic CRPS minimization for the calibration of short-range probabilistic forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Seyedeh Atefeh; Rahmani, Morteza; Azadi, Majid

2016-08-01

This paper deals with the probabilistic short-range temperature forecasts over synoptic meteorological stations across Iran using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression (NGR). NGR creates a Gaussian forecast probability density function (PDF) from the ensemble output. The mean of the normal predictive PDF is a bias-corrected weighted average of the ensemble members and its variance is a linear function of the raw ensemble variance. The coefficients for the mean and variance are estimated by minimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) during a training period. CRPS is a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. In the paper of Gneiting et al. (Mon Weather Rev 133:1098-1118, 2005), Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method is used to minimize the CRPS. Since BFGS is a conventional optimization method with its own limitations, we suggest using the particle swarm optimization (PSO), a robust meta-heuristic method, to minimize the CRPS. The ensemble prediction system used in this study consists of nine different configurations of the weather research and forecasting model for 48-h forecasts of temperature during autumn and winter 2011 and 2012. The probabilistic forecasts were evaluated using several common verification scores including Brier score, attribute diagram and rank histogram. Results show that both BFGS and PSO find the optimal solution and show the same evaluation scores, but PSO can do this with a feasible random first guess and much less computational complexity.

A Probabilistic Approach to Fitting Period–luminosity Relations and Validating Gaia Parallaxes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sesar, Branimir; Fouesneau, Morgan; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.

Pulsating stars, such as Cepheids, Miras, and RR Lyrae stars, are important distance indicators and calibrators of the “cosmic distance ladder,” and yet their period–luminosity–metallicity (PLZ) relations are still constrained using simple statistical methods that cannot take full advantage of available data. To enable optimal usage of data provided by the Gaia mission, we present a probabilistic approach that simultaneously constrains parameters of PLZ relations and uncertainties in Gaia parallax measurements. We demonstrate this approach by constraining PLZ relations of type ab RR Lyrae stars in near-infrared W 1 and W 2 bands, using Tycho- Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS) parallaxmore » measurements for a sample of ≈100 type ab RR Lyrae stars located within 2.5 kpc of the Sun. The fitted PLZ relations are consistent with previous studies, and in combination with other data, deliver distances precise to 6% (once various sources of uncertainty are taken into account). To a precision of 0.05 mas (1 σ ), we do not find a statistically significant offset in TGAS parallaxes for this sample of distant RR Lyrae stars (median parallax of 0.8 mas and distance of 1.4 kpc). With only minor modifications, our probabilistic approach can be used to constrain PLZ relations of other pulsating stars, and we intend to apply it to Cepheid and Mira stars in the near future.« less

Open Drug Discovery Toolkit (ODDT): a new open-source player in the drug discovery field.

PubMed

Wójcikowski, Maciej; Zielenkiewicz, Piotr; Siedlecki, Pawel

2015-01-01

There has been huge progress in the open cheminformatics field in both methods and software development. Unfortunately, there has been little effort to unite those methods and software into one package. We here describe the Open Drug Discovery Toolkit (ODDT), which aims to fulfill the need for comprehensive and open source drug discovery software. The Open Drug Discovery Toolkit was developed as a free and open source tool for both computer aided drug discovery (CADD) developers and researchers. ODDT reimplements many state-of-the-art methods, such as machine learning scoring functions (RF-Score and NNScore) and wraps other external software to ease the process of developing CADD pipelines. ODDT is an out-of-the-box solution designed to be easily customizable and extensible. Therefore, users are strongly encouraged to extend it and develop new methods. We here present three use cases for ODDT in common tasks in computer-aided drug discovery. Open Drug Discovery Toolkit is released on a permissive 3-clause BSD license for both academic and industrial use. ODDT's source code, additional examples and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/oddt/oddt).

Simultaneous isoform discovery and quantification from RNA-seq.

PubMed

Hiller, David; Wong, Wing Hung

2013-05-01

RNA sequencing is a recent technology which has seen an explosion of methods addressing all levels of analysis, from read mapping to transcript assembly to differential expression modeling. In particular the discovery of isoforms at the transcript assembly stage is a complex problem and current approaches suffer from various limitations. For instance, many approaches use graphs to construct a minimal set of isoforms which covers the observed reads, then perform a separate algorithm to quantify the isoforms, which can result in a loss of power. Current methods also use ad-hoc solutions to deal with the vast number of possible isoforms which can be constructed from a given set of reads. Finally, while the need of taking into account features such as read pairing and sampling rate of reads has been acknowledged, most existing methods do not seamlessly integrate these features as part of the model. We present Montebello, an integrated statistical approach which performs simultaneous isoform discovery and quantification by using a Monte Carlo simulation to find the most likely isoform composition leading to a set of observed reads. We compare Montebello to Cufflinks, a popular isoform discovery approach, on a simulated data set and on 46.3 million brain reads from an Illumina tissue panel. On this data set Montebello appears to offer a modest improvement over Cufflinks when considering discovery and parsimony metrics. In addition Montebello mitigates specific difficulties inherent in the Cufflinks approach. Finally, Montebello can be fine-tuned depending on the type of solution desired.

Photoacoustic assay for probing amyloid formation: feasibility study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrova, Elena; Yoon, Soon Joon; Pelivanov, Ivan; O'Donnell, Matthew

2018-02-01

The formation of amyloid - aggregate of misfolded proteins - is associated with more than 50 human pathologies, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and Type 2 diabetes mellitus. Investigating protein aggregation is a critical step in drug discovery and development of therapeutics targeted to these pathologies. However, screens to identify protein aggregates are challenging due to the stochastic character of aggregate nucleation. Here we employ photoacoustics (PA) to screen thermodynamic conditions and solution components leading to formation of protein aggregates. Particularly, we study the temperature dependence of the Gruneisen parameter in optically-contrasted, undersaturated and supersaturated solutions of glycoside hydrolase (lysozyme). As nucleation of protein aggregates proceeds in two steps, where the first is liquid-liquid separation (rearrangement of solute's density), the PA response from complex solutions and its temperature-dependence monitor nucleation and differentiate undersaturated and supersaturated protein solutions. We demonstrate that in the temperature range from 22 to 0° C the PA response of contrasted undersaturated protein solution behaves similar to water and exhibits zero thermal expansion at 4°C or below, while the response of contrasted supersaturated protein solution is nearly temperature independent, similar to the behavior of oils. These results can be used to develop a PA assay for high-throughput screening of multi-parametric conditions (pH, ionic strength, chaperone, etc.) for protein aggregation that can become a key tool in drug discovery, targeting aggregate formation for a variety of amyloids.

An impatient evolutionary algorithm with probabilistic tabu search for unified solution of some NP-hard problems in graph and set theory via clique finding.

PubMed

Guturu, Parthasarathy; Dantu, Ram

2008-06-01

Many graph- and set-theoretic problems, because of their tremendous application potential and theoretical appeal, have been well investigated by the researchers in complexity theory and were found to be NP-hard. Since the combinatorial complexity of these problems does not permit exhaustive searches for optimal solutions, only near-optimal solutions can be explored using either various problem-specific heuristic strategies or metaheuristic global-optimization methods, such as simulated annealing, genetic algorithms, etc. In this paper, we propose a unified evolutionary algorithm (EA) to the problems of maximum clique finding, maximum independent set, minimum vertex cover, subgraph and double subgraph isomorphism, set packing, set partitioning, and set cover. In the proposed approach, we first map these problems onto the maximum clique-finding problem (MCP), which is later solved using an evolutionary strategy. The proposed impatient EA with probabilistic tabu search (IEA-PTS) for the MCP integrates the best features of earlier successful approaches with a number of new heuristics that we developed to yield a performance that advances the state of the art in EAs for the exploration of the maximum cliques in a graph. Results of experimentation with the 37 DIMACS benchmark graphs and comparative analyses with six state-of-the-art algorithms, including two from the smaller EA community and four from the larger metaheuristics community, indicate that the IEA-PTS outperforms the EAs with respect to a Pareto-lexicographic ranking criterion and offers competitive performance on some graph instances when individually compared to the other heuristic algorithms. It has also successfully set a new benchmark on one graph instance. On another benchmark suite called Benchmarks with Hidden Optimal Solutions, IEA-PTS ranks second, after a very recent algorithm called COVER, among its peers that have experimented with this suite.

Estimation of distribution algorithm with path relinking for the blocking flow-shop scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Zhongshi; Pi, Dechang; Shao, Weishi

2018-05-01

This article presents an effective estimation of distribution algorithm, named P-EDA, to solve the blocking flow-shop scheduling problem (BFSP) with the makespan criterion. In the P-EDA, a Nawaz-Enscore-Ham (NEH)-based heuristic and the random method are combined to generate the initial population. Based on several superior individuals provided by a modified linear rank selection, a probabilistic model is constructed to describe the probabilistic distribution of the promising solution space. The path relinking technique is incorporated into EDA to avoid blindness of the search and improve the convergence property. A modified referenced local search is designed to enhance the local exploitation. Moreover, a diversity-maintaining scheme is introduced into EDA to avoid deterioration of the population. Finally, the parameters of the proposed P-EDA are calibrated using a design of experiments approach. Simulation results and comparisons with some well-performing algorithms demonstrate the effectiveness of the P-EDA for solving BFSP.

A Bayesian-based two-stage inexact optimization method for supporting stream water quality management in the Three Gorges Reservoir region.

PubMed

Hu, X H; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Zhuang, X W; Ding, X W

2016-05-01

In this study, a Bayesian-based two-stage inexact optimization (BTIO) method is developed for supporting water quality management through coupling Bayesian analysis with interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP). The BTIO method is capable of addressing uncertainties caused by insufficient inputs in water quality model as well as uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions and interval numbers. The BTIO method is applied to a real case of water quality management for the Xiangxi River basin in the Three Gorges Reservoir region to seek optimal water quality management schemes under various uncertainties. Interval solutions for production patterns under a range of probabilistic water quality constraints have been generated. Results obtained demonstrate compromises between the system benefit and the system failure risk due to inherent uncertainties that exist in various system components. Moreover, information about pollutant emission is accomplished, which would help managers to adjust production patterns of regional industry and local policies considering interactions of water quality requirement, economic benefit, and industry structure.

Resilient Grid Operational Strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

Extreme weather-related disturbances, such as hurricanes, are a leading cause of grid outages historically. Although physical asset hardening is perhaps the most common way to mitigate the impacts of severe weather, operational strategies may be deployed to limit the extent of societal and economic losses associated with weather-related physical damage.1 The purpose of this study is to examine bulk power-system operational strategies that can be deployed to mitigate the impact of severe weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, thereby increasing grid resilience to maintain continuity of critical infrastructure during extreme weather. To estimate the impacts of resilient grid operational strategies, Losmore » Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) developed a framework for hurricane probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). The probabilistic nature of this framework allows us to estimate the probability distribution of likely impacts, as opposed to the worst-case impacts. The project scope does not include strategies that are not operations related, such as transmission system hardening (e.g., undergrounding, transmission tower reinforcement and substation flood protection) and solutions in the distribution network.« less

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Onur, Tuna; Gok, Rengin; Abdulnaby, Wathiq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) form the basis for most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq was published in 1997. An update to this edition is in the process of being released. However, there are no national PSHA studies in Iraq for the new building code to refer to for seismic loading in terms of spectral accelerations. As an interim solution, the new draft building code was considering to refer to PSHA results produced in the late 1990s as part of the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Giardini et al.,more » 1999). However these results are: a) more than 15 years outdated, b) PGA-based only, necessitating rough conversion factors to calculate spectral accelerations at 0.3s and 1.0s for seismic design, and c) at a probability level of 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years, not the 2% that the building code requires. Hence there is a pressing need for a new, updated PSHA for Iraq.« less

The PMHT: solutions for some of its problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieneke, Monika; Koch, Wolfgang

2007-09-01

Tracking multiple targets in a cluttered environment is a challenging task. Probabilistic Multiple Hypothesis Tracking (PMHT) is an efficient approach for dealing with it. Essentially PMHT is based on the method of Expectation-Maximization for handling with association conflicts. Linearity in the number of targets and measurements is the main motivation for a further development and extension of this methodology. Unfortunately, compared with the Probabilistic Data Association Filter (PDAF), PMHT has not yet shown its superiority in terms of track-lost statistics. Furthermore, the problem of track extraction and deletion is apparently not yet satisfactorily solved within this framework. Four properties of PMHT are responsible for its problems in track maintenance: Non-Adaptivity, Hospitality, Narcissism and Local Maxima. 1, 2 In this work we present a solution for each of them and derive an improved PMHT by integrating the solutions into the PMHT formalism. The new PMHT is evaluated by Monte-Carlo simulations. A sequential Likelihood-Ratio (LR) test for track extraction has been developed and already integrated into the framework of traditional Bayesian Multiple Hypothesis Tracking. 3 As a multi-scan approach, also the PMHT methodology has the potential for track extraction. In this paper an analogous integration of a sequential LR test into the PMHT framework is proposed. We present an LR formula for track extraction and deletion using the PMHT update formulae. As PMHT provides all required ingredients for a sequential LR calculation, the LR is thus a by-product of the PMHT iteration process. Therefore the resulting update formula for the sequential LR test affords the development of Track-Before-Detect algorithms for PMHT. The approach is illustrated by a simple example.

Divide et impera: subgoaling reduces the complexity of probabilistic inference and problem solving.

PubMed

Maisto, Domenico; Donnarumma, Francesco; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2015-03-06

It has long been recognized that humans (and possibly other animals) usually break problems down into smaller and more manageable problems using subgoals. Despite a general consensus that subgoaling helps problem solving, it is still unclear what the mechanisms guiding online subgoal selection are during the solution of novel problems for which predefined solutions are not available. Under which conditions does subgoaling lead to optimal behaviour? When is subgoaling better than solving a problem from start to finish? Which is the best number and sequence of subgoals to solve a given problem? How are these subgoals selected during online inference? Here, we present a computational account of subgoaling in problem solving. Following Occam's razor, we propose that good subgoals are those that permit planning solutions and controlling behaviour using less information resources, thus yielding parsimony in inference and control. We implement this principle using approximate probabilistic inference: subgoals are selected using a sampling method that considers the descriptive complexity of the resulting sub-problems. We validate the proposed method using a standard reinforcement learning benchmark (four-rooms scenario) and show that the proposed method requires less inferential steps and permits selecting more compact control programs compared to an equivalent procedure without subgoaling. Furthermore, we show that the proposed method offers a mechanistic explanation of the neuronal dynamics found in the prefrontal cortex of monkeys that solve planning problems. Our computational framework provides a novel integrative perspective on subgoaling and its adaptive advantages for planning, control and learning, such as for example lowering cognitive effort and working memory load. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Improved source inversion from joint measurements of translational and rotational ground motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, S.; Bernauer, M.; Reinwald, M.; Hadziioannou, C.; Igel, H.

2017-12-01

Waveform inversion for seismic point (moment tensor) and kinematic sources is a standard procedure. However, especially in the local and regional distances a lack of appropriate velocity models, the sparsity of station networks, or a low signal-to-noise ratio combined with more complex waveforms hamper the successful retrieval of reliable source solutions. We assess the potential of rotational ground motion recordings to increase the resolution power and reduce non-uniquenesses for point and kinematic source solutions. Based on synthetic waveform data, we perform a Bayesian (i.e. probabilistic) inversion. Thus, we avoid the subjective selection of the most reliable solution according the lowest misfit or other constructed criterion. In addition, we obtain unbiased measures of resolution and possible trade-offs. Testing different earthquake mechanisms and scenarios, we can show that the resolution of the source solutions can be improved significantly. Especially depth dependent components show significant improvement. Next to synthetic data of station networks, we also tested sparse-network and single station cases.

Collaborative drug discovery for More Medicines for Tuberculosis (MM4TB)

PubMed Central

Ekins, Sean; Spektor, Anna Coulon; Clark, Alex M.; Dole, Krishna; Bunin, Barry A.

2016-01-01

Neglected disease drug discovery is generally poorly funded compared with major diseases and hence there is an increasing focus on collaboration and precompetitive efforts such as public–private partnerships (PPPs). The More Medicines for Tuberculosis (MM4TB) project is one such collaboration funded by the EU with the goal of discovering new drugs for tuberculosis. Collaborative Drug Discovery has provided a commercial web-based platform called CDD Vault which is a hosted collaborative solution for securely sharing diverse chemistry and biology data. Using CDD Vault alongside other commercial and free cheminformatics tools has enabled support of this and other large collaborative projects, aiding drug discovery efforts and fostering collaboration. We will describe CDD's efforts in assisting with the MM4TB project. PMID:27884746

About probabilistic integration of ill-posed geophysical tomography and logging data: A knowledge discovery approach versus petrophysical transfer function concepts illustrated using cross-borehole radar-, P- and S-wave traveltime tomography in combination with cone penetration and dielectric logging data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paasche, Hendrik

2018-01-01

Site characterization requires detailed and ideally spatially continuous information about the subsurface. Geophysical tomographic experiments allow for spatially continuous imaging of physical parameter variations, e.g., seismic wave propagation velocities. Such physical parameters are often related to typical geotechnical or hydrological target parameters, e.g. as achieved from 1D direct push or borehole logging. Here, the probabilistic inference of 2D tip resistance, sleeve friction, and relative dielectric permittivity distributions in near-surface sediments is constrained by ill-posed cross-borehole seismic P- and S-wave and radar wave traveltime tomography. In doing so, we follow a discovery science strategy employing a fully data-driven approach capable of accounting for tomographic ambiguity and differences in spatial resolution between the geophysical tomograms and the geotechnical logging data used for calibration. We compare the outcome to results achieved employing classical hypothesis-driven approaches, i.e., deterministic transfer functions derived empirically for the inference of 2D sleeve friction from S-wave velocity tomograms and theoretically for the inference of 2D dielectric permittivity from radar wave velocity tomograms. The data-driven approach offers maximal flexibility in combination with very relaxed considerations about the character of the expected links. This makes it a versatile tool applicable to almost any combination of data sets. However, error propagation may be critical and justify thinking about a hypothesis-driven pre-selection of an optimal database going along with the risk of excluding relevant information from the analyses. Results achieved by transfer function rely on information about the nature of the link and optimal calibration settings drawn as retrospective hypothesis by other authors. Applying such transfer functions at other sites turns them into a priori valid hypothesis, which can, particularly for empirically derived transfer functions, result in poor predictions. However, a mindful utilization and critical evaluation of the consequences of turning a retrospectively drawn hypothesis into an a priori valid hypothesis can also result in good results for inference and prediction problems when using classical transfer function concepts.

Expected performance of m-solution backtracking

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicol, D. M.

1986-01-01

This paper derives upper bounds on the expected number of search tree nodes visited during an m-solution backtracking search, a search which terminates after some preselected number m problem solutions are found. The search behavior is assumed to have a general probabilistic structure. The results are stated in terms of node expansion and contraction. A visited search tree node is said to be expanding if the mean number of its children visited by the search exceeds 1 and is contracting otherwise. It is shown that if every node expands, or if every node contracts, then the number of search tree nodes visited by a search has an upper bound which is linear in the depth of the tree, in the mean number of children a node has, and in the number of solutions sought. Also derived are bounds linear in the depth of the tree in some situations where an upper portion of the tree contracts (expands), while the lower portion expands (contracts). While previous analyses of 1-solution backtracking have concluded that the expected performance is always linear in the tree depth, the model allows superlinear expected performance.

Proceedings, Seminar on Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hynes-Griffin, M. E.; Buege, L. L.

1983-09-01

Contents: Applications of Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering; Probabilistic Seismic and Geotechnical Evaluation at a Dam Site; Probabilistic Slope Stability Methodology; Probability of Liquefaction in a 3-D Soil Deposit; Probabilistic Design of Flood Levees; Probabilistic and Statistical Methods for Determining Rock Mass Deformability Beneath Foundations: An Overview; Simple Statistical Methodology for Evaluating Rock Mechanics Exploration Data; New Developments in Statistical Techniques for Analyzing Rock Slope Stability.

Simulated annealing with probabilistic analysis for solving traveling salesman problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Pei-Yee; Lim, Yai-Fung; Ramli, Razamin; Khalid, Ruzelan

2013-09-01

Simulated Annealing (SA) is a widely used meta-heuristic that was inspired from the annealing process of recrystallization of metals. Therefore, the efficiency of SA is highly affected by the annealing schedule. As a result, in this paper, we presented an empirical work to provide a comparable annealing schedule to solve symmetric traveling salesman problems (TSP). Randomized complete block design is also used in this study. The results show that different parameters do affect the efficiency of SA and thus, we propose the best found annealing schedule based on the Post Hoc test. SA was tested on seven selected benchmarked problems of symmetric TSP with the proposed annealing schedule. The performance of SA was evaluated empirically alongside with benchmark solutions and simple analysis to validate the quality of solutions. Computational results show that the proposed annealing schedule provides a good quality of solution.

Probabilistic Analysis of Combinatorial Optimization Problems on Hypergraph Matchings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-01

per dimension” ( recall that d is equal to the number of independent subsets of vertices Vk in the hypergraph Hd jn, and n denotes the number of...disjoint solutions whose costs are iid random variables. First, recalling the interpretation of feasible MAP solu- tions as paths in the index graph G, we...elements. On the other hand, recall that a (feasible) path G can be described as a set of n vectors D f.i .1/ 1 ; : : : ; i .1/ d /; : : : ; .i .n

Probabilistically Perfect Cloning of Two Pure States: Geometric Approach.

PubMed

Yerokhin, V; Shehu, A; Feldman, E; Bagan, E; Bergou, J A

2016-05-20

We solve the long-standing problem of making n perfect clones from m copies of one of two known pure states with minimum failure probability in the general case where the known states have arbitrary a priori probabilities. The solution emerges from a geometric formulation of the problem. This formulation reveals that cloning converges to state discrimination followed by state preparation as the number of clones goes to infinity. The convergence exhibits a phenomenon analogous to a second-order symmetry-breaking phase transition.

Towards Detection of Learner Misconceptions in a Medical Learning Environment: A Subgroup Discovery Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poitras, Eric G.; Doleck, Tenzin; Lajoie, Susanne P.

2018-01-01

Ill-structured problems, by definition, have multiple paths to a solution and are multifaceted making automated assessment and feedback a difficult challenge. Diagnostic reasoning about medical cases meet the criteria of ill-structured problem solving since there are multiple solution paths. The goal of this study was to develop an adaptive…

k-neighborhood Decentralization: A Comprehensive Solution to Index the UMLS for Large Scale Knowledge Discovery

PubMed Central

Xiang, Yang; Lu, Kewei; James, Stephen L.; Borlawsky, Tara B.; Huang, Kun; Payne, Philip R.O.

2011-01-01

The Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) is the largest thesaurus in the biomedical informatics domain. Previous works have shown that knowledge constructs comprised of transitively-associated UMLS concepts are effective for discovering potentially novel biomedical hypotheses. However, the extremely large size of the UMLS becomes a major challenge for these applications. To address this problem, we designed a k-neighborhood Decentralization Labeling Scheme (kDLS) for the UMLS, and the corresponding method to effectively evaluate the kDLS indexing results. kDLS provides a comprehensive solution for indexing the UMLS for very efficient large scale knowledge discovery. We demonstrated that it is highly effective to use kDLS paths to prioritize disease-gene relations across the whole genome, with extremely high fold-enrichment values. To our knowledge, this is the first indexing scheme capable of supporting efficient large scale knowledge discovery on the UMLS as a whole. Our expectation is that kDLS will become a vital engine for retrieving information and generating hypotheses from the UMLS for future medical informatics applications. PMID:22154838

Network-based approaches to climate knowledge discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budich, Reinhard; Nyberg, Per; Weigel, Tobias

2011-11-01

Climate Knowledge Discovery Workshop; Hamburg, Germany, 30 March to 1 April 2011 Do complex networks combined with semantic Web technologies offer the next generation of solutions in climate science? To address this question, a first Climate Knowledge Discovery (CKD) Workshop, hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ)), brought together climate and computer scientists from major American and European laboratories, data centers, and universities, as well as representatives from industry, the broader academic community, and the semantic Web communities. The participants, representing six countries, were concerned with large-scale Earth system modeling and computational data analysis. The motivation for the meeting was the growing problem that climate scientists generate data faster than it can be interpreted and the need to prepare for further exponential data increases. Current analysis approaches are focused primarily on traditional methods, which are best suited for large-scale phenomena and coarse-resolution data sets. The workshop focused on the open discussion of ideas and technologies to provide the next generation of solutions to cope with the increasing data volumes in climate science.

k-Neighborhood decentralization: a comprehensive solution to index the UMLS for large scale knowledge discovery.

PubMed

Xiang, Yang; Lu, Kewei; James, Stephen L; Borlawsky, Tara B; Huang, Kun; Payne, Philip R O

2012-04-01

The Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) is the largest thesaurus in the biomedical informatics domain. Previous works have shown that knowledge constructs comprised of transitively-associated UMLS concepts are effective for discovering potentially novel biomedical hypotheses. However, the extremely large size of the UMLS becomes a major challenge for these applications. To address this problem, we designed a k-neighborhood Decentralization Labeling Scheme (kDLS) for the UMLS, and the corresponding method to effectively evaluate the kDLS indexing results. kDLS provides a comprehensive solution for indexing the UMLS for very efficient large scale knowledge discovery. We demonstrated that it is highly effective to use kDLS paths to prioritize disease-gene relations across the whole genome, with extremely high fold-enrichment values. To our knowledge, this is the first indexing scheme capable of supporting efficient large scale knowledge discovery on the UMLS as a whole. Our expectation is that kDLS will become a vital engine for retrieving information and generating hypotheses from the UMLS for future medical informatics applications. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Knowledge Discovery/A Collaborative Approach, an Innovative Solution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitts, Mary A.

2009-01-01

Collaboration between Medical Informatics and Healthcare Systems (MIHCS) at NASA/Johnson Space Center (JSC) and the Texas Medical Center (TMC) Library was established to investigate technologies for facilitating knowledge discovery across multiple life sciences research disciplines in multiple repositories. After reviewing 14 potential Enterprise Search System (ESS) solutions, Collexis was determined to best meet the expressed needs. A three month pilot evaluation of Collexis produced positive reports from multiple scientists across 12 research disciplines. The joint venture and a pilot-phased approach achieved the desired results without the high cost of purchasing software, hardware or additional resources to conduct the task. Medical research is highly compartmentalized by discipline, e.g. cardiology, immunology, neurology. The medical research community at large, as well as at JSC, recognizes the need for cross-referencing relevant information to generate best evidence. Cross-discipline collaboration at JSC is specifically required to close knowledge gaps affecting space exploration. To facilitate knowledge discovery across these communities, MIHCS combined expertise with the TMC library and found Collexis to best fit the needs of our researchers including:

Molecular basis of high viscosity in concentrated antibody solutions: Strategies for high concentration drug product development

PubMed Central

Tomar, Dheeraj S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Singh, Satish K.; Goswami, Sumit; Li, Li

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Effective translation of breakthrough discoveries into innovative products in the clinic requires proactive mitigation or elimination of several drug development challenges. These challenges can vary depending upon the type of drug molecule. In the case of therapeutic antibody candidates, a commonly encountered challenge is high viscosity of the concentrated antibody solutions. Concentration-dependent viscosity behaviors of mAbs and other biologic entities may depend on pairwise and higher-order intermolecular interactions, non-native aggregation, and concentration-dependent fluctuations of various antibody regions. This article reviews our current understanding of molecular origins of viscosity behaviors of antibody solutions. We discuss general strategies and guidelines to select low viscosity candidates or optimize lead candidates for lower viscosity at early drug discovery stages. Moreover, strategies for formulation optimization and excipient design are also presented for candidates already in advanced product development stages. Potential future directions for research in this field are also explored. PMID:26736022

Advances in microfluidics for drug discovery.

PubMed

Lombardi, Dario; Dittrich, Petra S

2010-11-01

Microfluidics is considered as an enabling technology for the development of unconventional and innovative methods in the drug discovery process. The concept of micrometer-sized reaction systems in the form of continuous flow reactors, microdroplets or microchambers is intriguing, and the versatility of the technology perfectly fits with the requirements of drug synthesis, drug screening and drug testing. In this review article, we introduce key microfluidic approaches to the drug discovery process, highlighting the latest and promising achievements in this field, mainly from the years 2007 - 2010. Despite high expectations of microfluidic approaches to several stages of the drug discovery process, up to now microfluidic technology has not been able to significantly replace conventional drug discovery platforms. Our aim is to identify bottlenecks that have impeded the transfer of microfluidics into routine platforms for drug discovery and show some recent solutions to overcome these hurdles. Although most microfluidic approaches are still applied only for proof-of-concept studies, thanks to creative microfluidic research in the past years unprecedented novel capabilities of microdevices could be demonstrated, and general applicable, robust and reliable microfluidic platforms seem to be within reach.

Automatic Classification of Time-variable X-Ray Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara; Gaensler, B. M.

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, and other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ~97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7-500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.

Computing elastic anisotropy to discover gum-metal-like structural alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, I. S.; de Jong, M.; Asta, M.; Chrzan, D. C.

2017-08-01

The computer aided discovery of structural alloys is a burgeoning but still challenging area of research. A primary challenge in the field is to identify computable screening parameters that embody key structural alloy properties. Here, an elastic anisotropy parameter that captures a material's susceptibility to solute solution strengthening is identified. The parameter has many applications in the discovery and optimization of structural materials. As a first example, the parameter is used to identify alloys that might display the super elasticity, super strength, and high ductility of the class of TiNb alloys known as gum metals. In addition, it is noted that the parameter can be used to screen candidate alloys for shape memory response, and potentially aid in the optimization of the mechanical properties of high-entropy alloys.

Marine Microorganism-Invertebrate Assemblages: Perspectives to Solve the “Supply Problem” in the Initial Steps of Drug Discovery

PubMed Central

Leal, Miguel Costa; Sheridan, Christopher; Osinga, Ronald; Dionísio, Gisela; Rocha, Rui Jorge Miranda; Silva, Bruna; Rosa, Rui; Calado, Ricardo

2014-01-01

The chemical diversity associated with marine natural products (MNP) is unanimously acknowledged as the “blue gold” in the urgent quest for new drugs. Consequently, a significant increase in the discovery of MNP published in the literature has been observed in the past decades, particularly from marine invertebrates. However, it remains unclear whether target metabolites originate from the marine invertebrates themselves or from their microbial symbionts. This issue underlines critical challenges associated with the lack of biomass required to supply the early stages of the drug discovery pipeline. The present review discusses potential solutions for such challenges, with particular emphasis on innovative approaches to culture invertebrate holobionts (microorganism-invertebrate assemblages) through in toto aquaculture, together with methods for the discovery and initial production of bioactive compounds from these microbial symbionts. PMID:24983638

Knowledge discovery with classification rules in a cardiovascular dataset.

PubMed

Podgorelec, Vili; Kokol, Peter; Stiglic, Milojka Molan; Hericko, Marjan; Rozman, Ivan

2005-12-01

In this paper we study an evolutionary machine learning approach to data mining and knowledge discovery based on the induction of classification rules. A method for automatic rules induction called AREX using evolutionary induction of decision trees and automatic programming is introduced. The proposed algorithm is applied to a cardiovascular dataset consisting of different groups of attributes which should possibly reveal the presence of some specific cardiovascular problems in young patients. A case study is presented that shows the use of AREX for the classification of patients and for discovering possible new medical knowledge from the dataset. The defined knowledge discovery loop comprises a medical expert's assessment of induced rules to drive the evolution of rule sets towards more appropriate solutions. The final result is the discovery of a possible new medical knowledge in the field of pediatric cardiology.

Probabilistic simulation of stress concentration in composite laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Murthy, P. L. N.; Liaw, L.

1993-01-01

A computational methodology is described to probabilistically simulate the stress concentration factors in composite laminates. This new approach consists of coupling probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic finite element structural analysis. The probabilistic composite mechanics is used to probabilistically describe all the uncertainties inherent in composite material properties while probabilistic finite element is used to probabilistically describe the uncertainties associated with methods to experimentally evaluate stress concentration factors such as loads, geometry, and supports. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by using it to simulate the stress concentration factors in composite laminates made from three different composite systems. Simulated results match experimental data for probability density and for cumulative distribution functions. The sensitivity factors indicate that the stress concentration factors are influenced by local stiffness variables, by load eccentricities and by initial stress fields.

Probabilistic load simulation: Code development status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, J. F.; Ho, H.

1991-05-01

The objective of the Composite Load Spectra (CLS) project is to develop generic load models to simulate the composite load spectra that are included in space propulsion system components. The probabilistic loads thus generated are part of the probabilistic design analysis (PDA) of a space propulsion system that also includes probabilistic structural analyses, reliability, and risk evaluations. Probabilistic load simulation for space propulsion systems demands sophisticated probabilistic methodology and requires large amounts of load information and engineering data. The CLS approach is to implement a knowledge based system coupled with a probabilistic load simulation module. The knowledge base manages and furnishes load information and expertise and sets up the simulation runs. The load simulation module performs the numerical computation to generate the probabilistic loads with load information supplied from the CLS knowledge base.

Combinatorial materials approach to accelerate materials discovery for transportation (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tong, Wei

2017-04-01

Combinatorial material research offers fast and efficient solutions to identify promising and advanced materials. It has revolutionized the pharmaceutical industry and now is being applied to accelerate the discovery of other new compounds, e.g. superconductors, luminescent materials, catalysts etc. Differing from the traditional trial-and-error process, this approach allows for the synthesis of a large number of compositionally diverse compounds by varying the combinations of the components and adjusting the ratios. It largely reduces the cost of single-sample synthesis/characterization, along with the turnaround time in the material discovery process, therefore, could dramatically change the existing paradigm for discovering and commercializing new materials. This talk outlines the use of combinatorial materials approach in the material discovery in transportation sector. It covers the general introduction to the combinatorial material concept, state of art for its application in energy-related research. At the end, LBNL capabilities in combinatorial materials synthesis and high throughput characterization that are applicable for material discovery research will be highlighted.

A generic motif discovery algorithm for sequential data.

PubMed

Jensen, Kyle L; Styczynski, Mark P; Rigoutsos, Isidore; Stephanopoulos, Gregory N

2006-01-01

Motif discovery in sequential data is a problem of great interest and with many applications. However, previous methods have been unable to combine exhaustive search with complex motif representations and are each typically only applicable to a certain class of problems. Here we present a generic motif discovery algorithm (Gemoda) for sequential data. Gemoda can be applied to any dataset with a sequential character, including both categorical and real-valued data. As we show, Gemoda deterministically discovers motifs that are maximal in composition and length. As well, the algorithm allows any choice of similarity metric for finding motifs. Finally, Gemoda's output motifs are representation-agnostic: they can be represented using regular expressions, position weight matrices or any number of other models for any type of sequential data. We demonstrate a number of applications of the algorithm, including the discovery of motifs in amino acids sequences, a new solution to the (l,d)-motif problem in DNA sequences and the discovery of conserved protein substructures. Gemoda is freely available at http://web.mit.edu/bamel/gemoda

Learning of state-space models with highly informative observations: A tempered sequential Monte Carlo solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svensson, Andreas; Schön, Thomas B.; Lindsten, Fredrik

2018-05-01

Probabilistic (or Bayesian) modeling and learning offers interesting possibilities for systematic representation of uncertainty using probability theory. However, probabilistic learning often leads to computationally challenging problems. Some problems of this type that were previously intractable can now be solved on standard personal computers thanks to recent advances in Monte Carlo methods. In particular, for learning of unknown parameters in nonlinear state-space models, methods based on the particle filter (a Monte Carlo method) have proven very useful. A notoriously challenging problem, however, still occurs when the observations in the state-space model are highly informative, i.e. when there is very little or no measurement noise present, relative to the amount of process noise. The particle filter will then struggle in estimating one of the basic components for probabilistic learning, namely the likelihood p (data | parameters). To this end we suggest an algorithm which initially assumes that there is substantial amount of artificial measurement noise present. The variance of this noise is sequentially decreased in an adaptive fashion such that we, in the end, recover the original problem or possibly a very close approximation of it. The main component in our algorithm is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) sampler, which gives our proposed method a clear resemblance to the SMC2 method. Another natural link is also made to the ideas underlying the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We illustrate it with numerical examples, and in particular show promising results for a challenging Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem.

A Parallel Fast Sweeping Method for the Eikonal Equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.

2017-12-01

Recently, there has been an exciting emergence of probabilistic methods for travel time tomography. Unlike gradient-based optimization strategies, probabilistic tomographic methods are resistant to becoming trapped in a local minimum and provide a much better quantification of parameter resolution than, say, appealing to ray density or performing checkerboard reconstruction tests. The benefits associated with random sampling methods however are only realized by successive computation of predicted travel times in, potentially, strongly heterogeneous media. To this end this abstract is concerned with expediting the solution of the Eikonal equation. While many Eikonal solvers use a fast marching method, the proposed solver will use the iterative fast sweeping method because the eight fixed sweep orderings in each iteration are natural targets for parallelization. To reduce the number of iterations and grid points required the high-accuracy finite difference stencil of Nobel et al., 2014 is implemented. A directed acyclic graph (DAG) is created with a priori knowledge of the sweep ordering and finite different stencil. By performing a topological sort of the DAG sets of independent nodes are identified as candidates for concurrent updating. Additionally, the proposed solver will also address scalability during earthquake relocation, a necessary step in local and regional earthquake tomography and a barrier to extending probabilistic methods from active source to passive source applications, by introducing an asynchronous parallel forward solve phase for all receivers in the network. Synthetic examples using the SEG over-thrust model will be presented.

Probabilistic characterization of wind turbine blades via aeroelasticity and spinning finite element formulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velazquez, Antonio; Swartz, R. Andrew

2012-04-01

Wind energy is an increasingly important component of this nation's renewable energy portfolio, however safe and economical wind turbine operation is a critical need to ensure continued adoption. Safe operation of wind turbine structures requires not only information regarding their condition, but their operational environment. Given the difficulty inherent in SHM processes for wind turbines (damage detection, location, and characterization), some uncertainty in conditional assessment is expected. Furthermore, given the stochastic nature of the loading on turbine structures, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize their risk of failure at a given time. Such information will be invaluable to turbine controllers, allowing them to operate the structures within acceptable risk profiles. This study explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the turbine blade structures. A framework is presented to develop an analytical estimation of the loading environment (including loading effects) based on the dynamic behavior of the blades. This is influenced by behaviors including along and across-wind aero-elastic effects, wind shear gradient, tower shadow effects, and centrifugal stiffening effects. The proposed solution includes methods that are based on modal decomposition of the blades and require frequent updates to the estimated modal properties to account for the time-varying nature of the turbine and its environment. The estimated demand statistics are compared to a code-based resistance curve to determine a probabilistic estimate of the risk of blade failure given the loading environment.

The probabilistic nature of preferential choice.

PubMed

Rieskamp, Jörg

2008-11-01

Previous research has developed a variety of theories explaining when and why people's decisions under risk deviate from the standard economic view of expected utility maximization. These theories are limited in their predictive accuracy in that they do not explain the probabilistic nature of preferential choice, that is, why an individual makes different choices in nearly identical situations, or why the magnitude of these inconsistencies varies in different situations. To illustrate the advantage of probabilistic theories, three probabilistic theories of decision making under risk are compared with their deterministic counterparts. The probabilistic theories are (a) a probabilistic version of a simple choice heuristic, (b) a probabilistic version of cumulative prospect theory, and (c) decision field theory. By testing the theories with the data from three experimental studies, the superiority of the probabilistic models over their deterministic counterparts in predicting people's decisions under risk become evident. When testing the probabilistic theories against each other, decision field theory provides the best account of the observed behavior.

Fuzzy probabilistic design of water distribution networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Guangtao; Kapelan, Zoran

2011-05-01

The primary aim of this paper is to present a fuzzy probabilistic approach for optimal design and rehabilitation of water distribution systems, combining aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties in a unified framework. The randomness and imprecision in future water consumption are characterized using fuzzy random variables whose realizations are not real but fuzzy numbers, and the nodal head requirements are represented by fuzzy sets, reflecting the imprecision in customers' requirements. The optimal design problem is formulated as a two-objective optimization problem, with minimization of total design cost and maximization of system performance as objectives. The system performance is measured by the fuzzy random reliability, defined as the probability that the fuzzy head requirements are satisfied across all network nodes. The satisfactory degree is represented by necessity measure or belief measure in the sense of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. An efficient algorithm is proposed, within a Monte Carlo procedure, to calculate the fuzzy random system reliability and is effectively combined with the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGAII) to derive the Pareto optimal design solutions. The newly proposed methodology is demonstrated with two case studies: the New York tunnels network and Hanoi network. The results from both cases indicate that the new methodology can effectively accommodate and handle various aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty sources arising from the design process and can provide optimal design solutions that are not only cost-effective but also have higher reliability to cope with severe future uncertainties.

Reachability Analysis in Probabilistic Biological Networks.

PubMed

Gabr, Haitham; Todor, Andrei; Dobra, Alin; Kahveci, Tamer

2015-01-01

Extra-cellular molecules trigger a response inside the cell by initiating a signal at special membrane receptors (i.e., sources), which is then transmitted to reporters (i.e., targets) through various chains of interactions among proteins. Understanding whether such a signal can reach from membrane receptors to reporters is essential in studying the cell response to extra-cellular events. This problem is drastically complicated due to the unreliability of the interaction data. In this paper, we develop a novel method, called PReach (Probabilistic Reachability), that precisely computes the probability that a signal can reach from a given collection of receptors to a given collection of reporters when the underlying signaling network is uncertain. This is a very difficult computational problem with no known polynomial-time solution. PReach represents each uncertain interaction as a bi-variate polynomial. It transforms the reachability problem to a polynomial multiplication problem. We introduce novel polynomial collapsing operators that associate polynomial terms with possible paths between sources and targets as well as the cuts that separate sources from targets. These operators significantly shrink the number of polynomial terms and thus the running time. PReach has much better time complexity than the recent solutions for this problem. Our experimental results on real data sets demonstrate that this improvement leads to orders of magnitude of reduction in the running time over the most recent methods. Availability: All the data sets used, the software implemented and the alignments found in this paper are available at http://bioinformatics.cise.ufl.edu/PReach/.

Cadmium Accumulation Risk in Vegetables and Rice in Southern China: Insights from Solid-Solution Partitioning and Plant Uptake Factor.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping; Li, Yanling; Peng, Chi

2017-07-12

Solid-solution partitioning coefficient (K d ) and plant uptake factor (PUF) largely determine the solubility and mobility of soil Cd to food crops. A four-year regional investigation was conducted in contaminated vegetable and paddy fields of southern China to quantify the variability in K d and PUF. The distributions of K d and PUF characterizing transfers of Cd from soil to vegetable and rice are probabilistic in nature. Dynamics in soil pH and soil Zn greatly affected the variations of K d . In addition to soil pH, soil organic matter had a major influence on PUF variations in vegetables. Heavy leaching of soil Mn caused a higher Cd accumulation in rice grain. Dietary ingestion of 85.5% of the locally produced vegetable and rice would have adverse health risks, with rice consumption contributing 97.2% of the risk. A probabilistic risk analysis based on derived transfer function reveals the amorphous Mn oxide content exerts a major influence on Cd accumulation in rice in pH conditions below 5.5. Risk estimation and field experiments show that to limit the Cd concentration in rice grains, soil management strategies should include improving the pH and soil Mn concentration to around 6.0 and 345 mg kg -1 , respectively. Our work illustrates that re-establishing a balance in trace elements in soils' labile pool provides an effective risk-based approach for safer crop practices.

Optimization Testbed Cometboards Extended into Stochastic Domain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Pai, Shantaram S.; Coroneos, Rula M.; Patnaik, Surya N.

2010-01-01

COMparative Evaluation Testbed of Optimization and Analysis Routines for the Design of Structures (CometBoards) is a multidisciplinary design optimization software. It was originally developed for deterministic calculation. It has now been extended into the stochastic domain for structural design problems. For deterministic problems, CometBoards is introduced through its subproblem solution strategy as well as the approximation concept in optimization. In the stochastic domain, a design is formulated as a function of the risk or reliability. Optimum solution including the weight of a structure, is also obtained as a function of reliability. Weight versus reliability traced out an inverted-S-shaped graph. The center of the graph corresponded to 50 percent probability of success, or one failure in two samples. A heavy design with weight approaching infinity could be produced for a near-zero rate of failure that corresponded to unity for reliability. Weight can be reduced to a small value for the most failure-prone design with a compromised reliability approaching zero. The stochastic design optimization (SDO) capability for an industrial problem was obtained by combining three codes: MSC/Nastran code was the deterministic analysis tool, fast probabilistic integrator, or the FPI module of the NESSUS software, was the probabilistic calculator, and CometBoards became the optimizer. The SDO capability requires a finite element structural model, a material model, a load model, and a design model. The stochastic optimization concept is illustrated considering an academic example and a real-life airframe component made of metallic and composite materials.

Overview of Future of Probabilistic Methods and RMSL Technology and the Probabilistic Methods Education Initiative for the US Army at the SAE G-11 Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting sponsored by the Picatinny Arsenal during March 1-3, 2004 at Westin Morristown, will report progress on projects for probabilistic assessment of Army system and launch an initiative for probabilistic education. The meeting features several Army and industry Senior executives and Ivy League Professor to provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11s Probabilistic Methods Committee is to enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development.

Three-Component Reaction Discovery Enabled by Mass Spectrometry of Self-Assembled Monolayers

PubMed Central

Montavon, Timothy J.; Li, Jing; Cabrera-Pardo, Jaime R.; Mrksich, Milan; Kozmin, Sergey A.

2011-01-01

Multi-component reactions have been extensively employed in many areas of organic chemistry. Despite significant progress, the discovery of such enabling transformations remains challenging. Here, we present the development of a parallel, label-free reaction-discovery platform, which can be used for identification of new multi-component transformations. Our approach is based on the parallel mass spectrometric screening of interfacial chemical reactions on arrays of self-assembled monolayers. This strategy enabled the identification of a simple organic phosphine that can catalyze a previously unknown condensation of siloxy alkynes, aldehydes and amines to produce 3-hydroxy amides with high efficiency and diastereoselectivity. The reaction was further optimized using solution phase methods. PMID:22169871

Manipulation of the mouse genome: a multiple impact resource for drug discovery and development.

PubMed

Prosser, Haydn; Rastan, Sohaila

2003-05-01

Few would deny that the pharmaceutical industry's investment in genomics throughout the 1990s has yet to deliver in terms of drugs on the market. The reasons are complex and beyond the scope of this review. The unique ability to manipulate the mouse genome, however, has already had a positive impact on all stages of the drug discovery process and, increasingly, on the drug development process too. We give an overview of some recent applications of so-called 'transgenic' mouse technology in pharmaceutical research and development. We show how genetic manipulation in the mouse can be employed at multiple points in the drug discovery and development process, providing new solutions to old problems.

Metagenomics and novel gene discovery

PubMed Central

Culligan, Eamonn P; Sleator, Roy D; Marchesi, Julian R; Hill, Colin

2014-01-01

Metagenomics provides a means of assessing the total genetic pool of all the microbes in a particular environment, in a culture-independent manner. It has revealed unprecedented diversity in microbial community composition, which is further reflected in the encoded functional diversity of the genomes, a large proportion of which consists of novel genes. Herein, we review both sequence-based and functional metagenomic methods to uncover novel genes and outline some of the associated problems of each type of approach, as well as potential solutions. Furthermore, we discuss the potential for metagenomic biotherapeutic discovery, with a particular focus on the human gut microbiome and finally, we outline how the discovery of novel genes may be used to create bioengineered probiotics. PMID:24317337

APOLLO_NG - a probabilistic interpretation of the APOLLO legacy for AVHRR heritage channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klüser, L.; Killius, N.; Gesell, G.

2015-10-01

The cloud processing scheme APOLLO (AVHRR Processing scheme Over cLouds, Land and Ocean) has been in use for cloud detection and cloud property retrieval since the late 1980s. The physics of the APOLLO scheme still build the backbone of a range of cloud detection algorithms for AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) heritage instruments. The APOLLO_NG (APOLLO_NextGeneration) cloud processing scheme is a probabilistic interpretation of the original APOLLO method. It builds upon the physical principles that have served well in the original APOLLO scheme. Nevertheless, a couple of additional variables have been introduced in APOLLO_NG. Cloud detection is no longer performed as a binary yes/no decision based on these physical principles. It is rather expressed as cloud probability for each satellite pixel. Consequently, the outcome of the algorithm can be tuned from being sure to reliably identify clear pixels to conditions of reliably identifying definitely cloudy pixels, depending on the purpose. The probabilistic approach allows retrieving not only the cloud properties (optical depth, effective radius, cloud top temperature and cloud water path) but also their uncertainties. APOLLO_NG is designed as a standalone cloud retrieval method robust enough for operational near-realtime use and for application to large amounts of historical satellite data. The radiative transfer solution is approximated by the same two-stream approach which also had been used for the original APOLLO. This allows the algorithm to be applied to a wide range of sensors without the necessity of sensor-specific tuning. Moreover it allows for online calculation of the radiative transfer (i.e., within the retrieval algorithm) giving rise to a detailed probabilistic treatment of cloud variables. This study presents the algorithm for cloud detection and cloud property retrieval together with the physical principles from the APOLLO legacy it is based on. Furthermore a couple of example results from NOAA-18 are presented.

APOLLO_NG - a probabilistic interpretation of the APOLLO legacy for AVHRR heritage channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klüser, L.; Killius, N.; Gesell, G.

2015-04-01

The cloud processing scheme APOLLO (Avhrr Processing scheme Over cLouds, Land and Ocean) has been in use for cloud detection and cloud property retrieval since the late 1980s. The physics of the APOLLO scheme still build the backbone of a range of cloud detection algorithms for AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) heritage instruments. The APOLLO_NG (APOLLO_NextGeneration) cloud processing scheme is a probabilistic interpretation of the original APOLLO method. While building upon the physical principles having served well in the original APOLLO a couple of additional variables have been introduced in APOLLO_NG. Cloud detection is not performed as a binary yes/no decision based on these physical principals but is expressed as cloud probability for each satellite pixel. Consequently the outcome of the algorithm can be tuned from clear confident to cloud confident depending on the purpose. The probabilistic approach allows to retrieving not only the cloud properties (optical depth, effective radius, cloud top temperature and cloud water path) but also their uncertainties. APOLLO_NG is designed as a standalone cloud retrieval method robust enough for operational near-realtime use and for the application with large amounts of historical satellite data. Thus the radiative transfer solution is approximated by the same two stream approach which also had been used for the original APOLLO. This allows the algorithm to be robust enough for being applied to a wide range of sensors without the necessity of sensor-specific tuning. Moreover it allows for online calculation of the radiative transfer (i.e. within the retrieval algorithm) giving rise to a detailed probabilistic treatment of cloud variables. This study presents the algorithm for cloud detection and cloud property retrieval together with the physical principles from the APOLLO legacy it is based on. Furthermore a couple of example results from on NOAA-18 are presented.

Adequacy assessment of composite generation and transmission systems incorporating wind energy conversion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yi

The development and utilization of wind energy for satisfying electrical demand has received considerable attention in recent years due to its tremendous environmental, social and economic benefits, together with public support and government incentives. Electric power generation from wind energy behaves quite differently from that of conventional sources. The fundamentally different operating characteristics of wind energy facilities therefore affect power system reliability in a different manner than those of conventional systems. The reliability impact of such a highly variable energy source is an important aspect that must be assessed when the wind power penetration is significant. The focus of the research described in this thesis is on the utilization of state sampling Monte Carlo simulation in wind integrated bulk electric system reliability analysis and the application of these concepts in system planning and decision making. Load forecast uncertainty is an important factor in long range planning and system development. This thesis describes two approximate approaches developed to reduce the number of steps in a load duration curve which includes load forecast uncertainty, and to provide reasonably accurate generating and bulk system reliability index predictions. The developed approaches are illustrated by application to two composite test systems. A method of generating correlated random numbers with uniform distributions and a specified correlation coefficient in the state sampling method is proposed and used to conduct adequacy assessment in generating systems and in bulk electric systems containing correlated wind farms in this thesis. The studies described show that it is possible to use the state sampling Monte Carlo simulation technique to quantitatively assess the reliability implications associated with adding wind power to a composite generation and transmission system including the effects of multiple correlated wind sites. This is an important development as it permits correlated wind farms to be incorporated in large practical system studies without requiring excessive increases in computer solution time. The procedures described in this thesis for creating monthly and seasonal wind farm models should prove useful in situations where time period models are required to incorporate scheduled maintenance of generation and transmission facilities. There is growing interest in combining deterministic considerations with probabilistic assessment in order to evaluate the quantitative system risk and conduct bulk power system planning. A relatively new approach that incorporates deterministic and probabilistic considerations in a single risk assessment framework has been designated as the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach. The research work described in this thesis illustrates that the joint deterministic-probabilistic approach can be effectively used to integrate wind power in bulk electric system planning. The studies described in this thesis show that the application of the joint deterministic-probabilistic method provides more stringent results for a system with wind power than the traditional deterministic N-1 method because the joint deterministic-probabilistic technique is driven by the deterministic N-1 criterion with an added probabilistic perspective which recognizes the power output characteristics of a wind turbine generator.

Analytic dyon solution in SU/N/ grand unified theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyi, W. S.; Park, Y. J.; Koh, I. G.; Kim, Y. D.

1982-10-01

Analytic solutions which are regular everywhere, including at the origin, are found for certain cases of SU(N) grand unified theories. Attention is restricted to order-1/g behavior of the SU(N) grand unified theory, and aspects of the solutions of the Higgs field of the SU(N) near the origin are considered. Comments regarding the mass, the Pontryagin-like index of the dyon, and magnetic charge are made with respect to the recent report of a monopole discovery.

A generic method for the evaluation of interval type-2 fuzzy linguistic summaries.

PubMed

Boran, Fatih Emre; Akay, Diyar

2014-09-01

Linguistic summarization has turned out to be an important knowledge discovery technique by providing the most relevant natural language-based sentences in a human consistent manner. While many studies on linguistic summarization have handled ordinary fuzzy sets [type-1 fuzzy set (T1FS)] for modeling words, only few of them have dealt with interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FS) even though IT2FS is better capable of handling uncertainties associated with words. Furthermore, the existent studies work with the scalar cardinality based degree of truth which might lead to inconsistency in the evaluation of interval type-2 fuzzy (IT2F) linguistic summaries. In this paper, to overcome this shortcoming, we propose a novel probabilistic degree of truth for evaluating IT2F linguistic summaries in the forms of type-I and type-II quantified sentences. We also extend the properties that should be fulfilled by any degree of truth on linguistic summarization with T1FS to IT2F environment. We not only prove that our probabilistic degree of truth satisfies the given properties, but also illustrate by examples that it provides more consistent results when compared to the existing degree of truth in the literature. Furthermore, we carry out an application on linguistic summarization of time series data of Europe Brent Spot Price, along with a comparison of the results achieved with our approach and that of the existing degree of truth in the literature.

Geologic assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources in the Albian Clastic and Updip Albian Clastic Assessment Units, U.S. Gulf Coast Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Merrill, Matthew D.

2016-03-11

U.S. Geological Survey National Oil and Gas Assessments (NOGA) of Albian aged clastic reservoirs in the U.S. Gulf Coast region indicate a relatively low prospectivity for undiscovered hydrocarbon resources due to high levels of past production and exploration. Evaluation of two assessment units (AUs), (1) the Albian Clastic AU 50490125, and (2) the Updip Albian Clastic AU 50490126, were based on a geologic model incorporating consideration of source rock, thermal maturity, migration, events timing, depositional environments, reservoir rock characteristics, and production analyses built on well and field-level production histories. The Albian Clastic AU is a mature conventional hydrocarbon prospect with undiscovered accumulations probably restricted to small faulted and salt-associated structural traps that could be revealed using high resolution subsurface imaging and from targeting structures at increased drilling depths that were unproductive at shallower intervals. Mean undiscovered accumulation volumes from the probabilistic assessment are 37 million barrels of oil (MMBO), 152 billion cubic feet of gas (BCFG), and 4 million barrels of natural gas liquids (MMBNGL). Limited exploration of the Updip Albian Clastic AU reflects a paucity of hydrocarbon discoveries updip of the periphery fault zones in the northern Gulf Coastal region. Restricted migration across fault zones is a major factor behind the small discovered fields and estimation of undiscovered resources in the AU. Mean undiscovered accumulation volumes from the probabilistic assessment are 1 MMBO and 5 BCFG for the Updip Albian Clastic AU.

Students’ difficulties in probabilistic problem-solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arum, D. P.; Kusmayadi, T. A.; Pramudya, I.

2018-03-01

There are many errors can be identified when students solving mathematics problems, particularly in solving the probabilistic problem. This present study aims to investigate students’ difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It focuses on analyzing and describing students errors during solving the problem. This research used the qualitative method with case study strategy. The subjects in this research involve ten students of 9th grade that were selected by purposive sampling. Data in this research involve students’ probabilistic problem-solving result and recorded interview regarding students’ difficulties in solving the problem. Those data were analyzed descriptively using Miles and Huberman steps. The results show that students have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem and can be divided into three categories. First difficulties relate to students’ difficulties in understanding the probabilistic problem. Second, students’ difficulties in choosing and using appropriate strategies for solving the problem. Third, students’ difficulties with the computational process in solving the problem. Based on the result seems that students still have difficulties in solving the probabilistic problem. It means that students have not able to use their knowledge and ability for responding probabilistic problem yet. Therefore, it is important for mathematics teachers to plan probabilistic learning which could optimize students probabilistic thinking ability.

A probabilistic Hu-Washizu variational principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. K.; Belytschko, T.; Besterfield, G. H.

1987-01-01

A Probabilistic Hu-Washizu Variational Principle (PHWVP) for the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) is presented. This formulation is developed for both linear and nonlinear elasticity. The PHWVP allows incorporation of the probabilistic distributions for the constitutive law, compatibility condition, equilibrium, domain and boundary conditions into the PFEM. Thus, a complete probabilistic analysis can be performed where all aspects of the problem are treated as random variables and/or fields. The Hu-Washizu variational formulation is available in many conventional finite element codes thereby enabling the straightforward inclusion of the probabilistic features into present codes.

Parallel approach for bioinspired algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaporozhets, Dmitry; Zaruba, Daria; Kulieva, Nina

2018-05-01

In the paper, a probabilistic parallel approach based on the population heuristic, such as a genetic algorithm, is suggested. The authors proposed using a multithreading approach at the micro level at which new alternative solutions are generated. On each iteration, several threads that independently used the same population to generate new solutions can be started. After the work of all threads, a selection operator combines obtained results in the new population. To confirm the effectiveness of the suggested approach, the authors have developed software on the basis of which experimental computations can be carried out. The authors have considered a classic optimization problem – finding a Hamiltonian cycle in a graph. Experiments show that due to the parallel approach at the micro level, increment of running speed can be obtained on graphs with 250 and more vertices.

Sparse Substring Pattern Set Discovery Using Linear Programming Boosting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kashihara, Kazuaki; Hatano, Kohei; Bannai, Hideo; Takeda, Masayuki

In this paper, we consider finding a small set of substring patterns which classifies the given documents well. We formulate the problem as 1 norm soft margin optimization problem where each dimension corresponds to a substring pattern. Then we solve this problem by using LPBoost and an optimal substring discovery algorithm. Since the problem is a linear program, the resulting solution is likely to be sparse, which is useful for feature selection. We evaluate the proposed method for real data such as movie reviews.

Probabilistic Aeroelastic Analysis of Turbomachinery Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reddy, T. S. R.; Mital, S. K.; Stefko, G. L.

2004-01-01

A probabilistic approach is described for aeroelastic analysis of turbomachinery blade rows. Blade rows with subsonic flow and blade rows with supersonic flow with subsonic leading edge are considered. To demonstrate the probabilistic approach, the flutter frequency, damping and forced response of a blade row representing a compressor geometry is considered. The analysis accounts for uncertainties in structural and aerodynamic design variables. The results are presented in the form of probabilistic density function (PDF) and sensitivity factors. For subsonic flow cascade, comparisons are also made with different probabilistic distributions, probabilistic methods, and Monte-Carlo simulation. The approach shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess the effect of uncertainties in design variables on the aeroelastic instabilities and response.

Web-scale discovery in an academic health sciences library: development and implementation of the EBSCO Discovery Service.

PubMed

Thompson, Jolinda L; Obrig, Kathe S; Abate, Laura E

2013-01-01

Funds made available at the close of the 2010-11 fiscal year allowed purchase of the EBSCO Discovery Service (EDS) for a year-long trial. The appeal of this web-scale discovery product that offers a Google-like interface to library resources was counter-balanced by concerns about quality of search results in an academic health science setting and the challenge of configuring an interface that serves the needs of a diverse group of library users. After initial configuration, usability testing with library users revealed the need for further work before general release. Of greatest concern were continuing issues with the relevance of items retrieved, appropriateness of system-supplied facet terms, and user difficulties with navigating the interface. EBSCO has worked with the library to better understand and identify problems and solutions. External roll-out to users occurred in June 2012.

SIMS: A Hybrid Method for Rapid Conformational Analysis

PubMed Central

Gipson, Bryant; Moll, Mark; Kavraki, Lydia E.

2013-01-01

Proteins are at the root of many biological functions, often performing complex tasks as the result of large changes in their structure. Describing the exact details of these conformational changes, however, remains a central challenge for computational biology due the enormous computational requirements of the problem. This has engendered the development of a rich variety of useful methods designed to answer specific questions at different levels of spatial, temporal, and energetic resolution. These methods fall largely into two classes: physically accurate, but computationally demanding methods and fast, approximate methods. We introduce here a new hybrid modeling tool, the Structured Intuitive Move Selector (sims), designed to bridge the divide between these two classes, while allowing the benefits of both to be seamlessly integrated into a single framework. This is achieved by applying a modern motion planning algorithm, borrowed from the field of robotics, in tandem with a well-established protein modeling library. sims can combine precise energy calculations with approximate or specialized conformational sampling routines to produce rapid, yet accurate, analysis of the large-scale conformational variability of protein systems. Several key advancements are shown, including the abstract use of generically defined moves (conformational sampling methods) and an expansive probabilistic conformational exploration. We present three example problems that sims is applied to and demonstrate a rapid solution for each. These include the automatic determination of “active” residues for the hinge-based system Cyanovirin-N, exploring conformational changes involving long-range coordinated motion between non-sequential residues in Ribose-Binding Protein, and the rapid discovery of a transient conformational state of Maltose-Binding Protein, previously only determined by Molecular Dynamics. For all cases we provide energetic validations using well-established energy fields, demonstrating this framework as a fast and accurate tool for the analysis of a wide range of protein flexibility problems. PMID:23935893

Simultaneously learning DNA motif along with its position and sequence rank preferences through expectation maximization algorithm.

PubMed

Zhang, ZhiZhuo; Chang, Cheng Wei; Hugo, Willy; Cheung, Edwin; Sung, Wing-Kin

2013-03-01

Although de novo motifs can be discovered through mining over-represented sequence patterns, this approach misses some real motifs and generates many false positives. To improve accuracy, one solution is to consider some additional binding features (i.e., position preference and sequence rank preference). This information is usually required from the user. This article presents a de novo motif discovery algorithm called SEME (sampling with expectation maximization for motif elicitation), which uses pure probabilistic mixture model to model the motif's binding features and uses expectation maximization (EM) algorithms to simultaneously learn the sequence motif, position, and sequence rank preferences without asking for any prior knowledge from the user. SEME is both efficient and accurate thanks to two important techniques: the variable motif length extension and importance sampling. Using 75 large-scale synthetic datasets, 32 metazoan compendium benchmark datasets, and 164 chromatin immunoprecipitation sequencing (ChIP-Seq) libraries, we demonstrated the superior performance of SEME over existing programs in finding transcription factor (TF) binding sites. SEME is further applied to a more difficult problem of finding the co-regulated TF (coTF) motifs in 15 ChIP-Seq libraries. It identified significantly more correct coTF motifs and, at the same time, predicted coTF motifs with better matching to the known motifs. Finally, we show that the learned position and sequence rank preferences of each coTF reveals potential interaction mechanisms between the primary TF and the coTF within these sites. Some of these findings were further validated by the ChIP-Seq experiments of the coTFs. The application is available online.

Outsourcing to exploit a key asset.

PubMed

Meerpoel, Lieven; Schroven, Marc; Goris, Koen; Demoen, Koen; Marsden, Siobhan

2006-06-01

Much has been written and debated about the economic and organizational advantages of outsourcing a growing list of operations in drug discovery. In what has been described as a modular approach to drug discovery, whole sections of the process are now handled very effectively by a wide variety of specialist suppliers to the pharmaceutical industry. Here we report on a novel outsourced solution to the challenge of consolidating and managing some of the key assets residing within a major research organization - its chemical intermediates. At Johnson and Johnson Pharmaceutical Research and Development this resource has been built up over a period of more than 40 years, and is added to daily. The challenge was to provide the company's scientists with a single source for its own and externally procured intermediates; the solution was developed working in partnership with Sigma-Aldrich.

Design, challenge, and promise of stimuli-responsive nanoantibiotics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edson, Julius A.; Kwon, Young Jik

2016-10-01

Over the past few years, there have been calls for novel antimicrobials to combat the rise of drug-resistant bacteria. While some promising new discoveries have met this call, it is not nearly enough. The major problem is that although these new promising antimicrobials serve as a short-term solution, they lack the potential to provide a long-term solution. The conventional method of creating new antibiotics relies heavily on the discovery of an antimicrobial compound from another microbe. This paradigm of development is flawed due to the fact that microbes can easily transfer a resistant mechanism if faced with an environmental pressure. Furthermore, there has been some evidence to indicate that the environment of the microbe can provide a hint as to their virulence. Because of this, the use of materials with antimicrobial properties has been garnering interest. Nanoantibiotics, (nAbts), provide a new way to circumvent the current paradigm of antimicrobial discovery and presents a novel mechanism of attack not found in microbes yet; which may lead to a longer-term solution against drug-resistance formation. This allows for environment-specific activation and efficacy of the nAbts but may also open up and create new design methods for various applications. These nAbts provide promise, but there is still ample work to be done in their development. This review looks at possible ways of improving and optimizing nAbts by making them stimuli-responsive, then consider the challenges ahead, and industrial applications.[Figure not available: see fulltext.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for space propulsion system components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1986-01-01

The development of a three-dimensional inelastic analysis methodology for the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME) structural components is described. The methodology is composed of: (1) composite load spectra, (2) probabilistic structural analysis methods, (3) the probabilistic finite element theory, and (4) probabilistic structural analysis. The methodology has led to significant technical progress in several important aspects of probabilistic structural analysis. The program and accomplishments to date are summarized.

Review of the probabilistic failure analysis methodology and other probabilistic approaches for application in aerospace structural design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, J.; Meyers, C.; Ortega, R.; Peck, J.; Rheinfurth, M.; Weinstock, B.

1993-01-01

Probabilistic structural analyses and design methods are steadily gaining acceptance within the aerospace industry. The safety factor approach to design has long been the industry standard, and it is believed by many to be overly conservative and thus, costly. A probabilistic approach to design may offer substantial cost savings. This report summarizes several probabilistic approaches: the probabilistic failure analysis (PFA) methodology developed by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, fast probability integration (FPI) methods, the NESSUS finite element code, and response surface methods. Example problems are provided to help identify the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Efficient probabilistic inference in generic neural networks trained with non-probabilistic feedback.

PubMed

Orhan, A Emin; Ma, Wei Ji

2017-07-26

Animals perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in a wide range of psychophysical tasks. Probabilistic inference requires trial-to-trial representation of the uncertainties associated with task variables and subsequent use of this representation. Previous work has implemented such computations using neural networks with hand-crafted and task-dependent operations. We show that generic neural networks trained with a simple error-based learning rule perform near-optimal probabilistic inference in nine common psychophysical tasks. In a probabilistic categorization task, error-based learning in a generic network simultaneously explains a monkey's learning curve and the evolution of qualitative aspects of its choice behavior. In all tasks, the number of neurons required for a given level of performance grows sublinearly with the input population size, a substantial improvement on previous implementations of probabilistic inference. The trained networks develop a novel sparsity-based probabilistic population code. Our results suggest that probabilistic inference emerges naturally in generic neural networks trained with error-based learning rules.Behavioural tasks often require probability distributions to be inferred about task specific variables. Here, the authors demonstrate that generic neural networks can be trained using a simple error-based learning rule to perform such probabilistic computations efficiently without any need for task specific operations.

Probabilistic resource allocation system with self-adaptive capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yufik, Yan M. (Inventor)

1996-01-01

A probabilistic resource allocation system is disclosed containing a low capacity computational module (Short Term Memory or STM) and a self-organizing associative network (Long Term Memory or LTM) where nodes represent elementary resources, terminal end nodes represent goals, and directed links represent the order of resource association in different allocation episodes. Goals and their priorities are indicated by the user, and allocation decisions are made in the STM, while candidate associations of resources are supplied by the LTM based on the association strength (reliability). Reliability values are automatically assigned to the network links based on the frequency and relative success of exercising those links in the previous allocation decisions. Accumulation of allocation history in the form of an associative network in the LTM reduces computational demands on subsequent allocations. For this purpose, the network automatically partitions itself into strongly associated high reliability packets, allowing fast approximate computation and display of allocation solutions satisfying the overall reliability and other user-imposed constraints. System performance improves in time due to modification of network parameters and partitioning criteria based on the performance feedback.

Probabilistic resource allocation system with self-adaptive capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yufik, Yan M. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

A probabilistic resource allocation system is disclosed containing a low capacity computational module (Short Term Memory or STM) and a self-organizing associative network (Long Term Memory or LTM) where nodes represent elementary resources, terminal end nodes represent goals, and weighted links represent the order of resource association in different allocation episodes. Goals and their priorities are indicated by the user, and allocation decisions are made in the STM, while candidate associations of resources are supplied by the LTM based on the association strength (reliability). Weights are automatically assigned to the network links based on the frequency and relative success of exercising those links in the previous allocation decisions. Accumulation of allocation history in the form of an associative network in the LTM reduces computational demands on subsequent allocations. For this purpose, the network automatically partitions itself into strongly associated high reliability packets, allowing fast approximate computation and display of allocation solutions satisfying the overall reliability and other user-imposed constraints. System performance improves in time due to modification of network parameters and partitioning criteria based on the performance feedback.

Automated Probabilistic Reconstruction of White-Matter Pathways in Health and Disease Using an Atlas of the Underlying Anatomy

PubMed Central

Yendiki, Anastasia; Panneck, Patricia; Srinivasan, Priti; Stevens, Allison; Zöllei, Lilla; Augustinack, Jean; Wang, Ruopeng; Salat, David; Ehrlich, Stefan; Behrens, Tim; Jbabdi, Saad; Gollub, Randy; Fischl, Bruce

2011-01-01

We have developed a method for automated probabilistic reconstruction of a set of major white-matter pathways from diffusion-weighted MR images. Our method is called TRACULA (TRActs Constrained by UnderLying Anatomy) and utilizes prior information on the anatomy of the pathways from a set of training subjects. By incorporating this prior knowledge in the reconstruction procedure, our method obviates the need for manual interaction with the tract solutions at a later stage and thus facilitates the application of tractography to large studies. In this paper we illustrate the application of the method on data from a schizophrenia study and investigate whether the inclusion of both patients and healthy subjects in the training set affects our ability to reconstruct the pathways reliably. We show that, since our method does not constrain the exact spatial location or shape of the pathways but only their trajectory relative to the surrounding anatomical structures, a set a of healthy training subjects can be used to reconstruct the pathways accurately in patients as well as in controls. PMID:22016733

Comparison of Deterministic and Probabilistic Radial Distribution Systems Load Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Atma Ram; Kumar, Ashwani

2017-12-01

Distribution system network today is facing the challenge of meeting increased load demands from the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. The pattern of load is highly dependent on consumer behavior and temporal factors such as season of the year, day of the week or time of the day. For deterministic radial distribution load flow studies load is taken as constant. But, load varies continually with a high degree of uncertainty. So, there is a need to model probable realistic load. Monte-Carlo Simulation is used to model the probable realistic load by generating random values of active and reactive power load from the mean and standard deviation of the load and for solving a Deterministic Radial Load Flow with these values. The probabilistic solution is reconstructed from deterministic data obtained for each simulation. The main contribution of the work is: Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on balanced radial distribution load flow. Finding impact of probable realistic ZIP load modeling on unbalanced radial distribution load flow. Compare the voltage profile and losses with probable realistic ZIP load modeling for balanced and unbalanced radial distribution load flow.

A multipopulation PSO based memetic algorithm for permutation flow shop scheduling.

PubMed

Liu, Ruochen; Ma, Chenlin; Ma, Wenping; Li, Yangyang

2013-01-01

The permutation flow shop scheduling problem (PFSSP) is part of production scheduling, which belongs to the hardest combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, a multipopulation particle swarm optimization (PSO) based memetic algorithm (MPSOMA) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed algorithm, the whole particle swarm population is divided into three subpopulations in which each particle evolves itself by the standard PSO and then updates each subpopulation by using different local search schemes such as variable neighborhood search (VNS) and individual improvement scheme (IIS). Then, the best particle of each subpopulation is selected to construct a probabilistic model by using estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) and three particles are sampled from the probabilistic model to update the worst individual in each subpopulation. The best particle in the entire particle swarm is used to update the global optimal solution. The proposed MPSOMA is compared with two recently proposed algorithms, namely, PSO based memetic algorithm (PSOMA) and hybrid particle swarm optimization with estimation of distribution algorithm (PSOEDA), on 29 well-known PFFSPs taken from OR-library, and the experimental results show that it is an effective approach for the PFFSP.

An approximate methods approach to probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcclung, R. C.; Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.; Thacker, B. H.; Burnside, O. H.

1989-01-01

A major research and technology program in Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) is currently being sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center with Southwest Research Institute as the prime contractor. This program is motivated by the need to accurately predict structural response in an environment where the loadings, the material properties, and even the structure may be considered random. The heart of PSAM is a software package which combines advanced structural analysis codes with a fast probability integration (FPI) algorithm for the efficient calculation of stochastic structural response. The basic idea of PAAM is simple: make an approximate calculation of system response, including calculation of the associated probabilities, with minimal computation time and cost, based on a simplified representation of the geometry, loads, and material. The deterministic solution resulting should give a reasonable and realistic description of performance-limiting system responses, although some error will be inevitable. If the simple model has correctly captured the basic mechanics of the system, however, including the proper functional dependence of stress, frequency, etc. on design parameters, then the response sensitivities calculated may be of significantly higher accuracy.

DISCOVERY OF BRIGHT GALACTIC R CORONAE BOREALIS AND DY PERSEI VARIABLES: RARE GEMS MINED FROM ACVS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, A. A.; Richards, J. W.; Bloom, J. S.

2012-08-20

We present the results of a machine-learning (ML)-based search for new R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars and DY Persei-like stars (DYPers) in the Galaxy using cataloged light curves from the All-Sky Automated Survey (ASAS) Catalog of Variable Stars (ACVS). RCB stars-a rare class of hydrogen-deficient carbon-rich supergiants-are of great interest owing to the insights they can provide on the late stages of stellar evolution. DYPers are possibly the low-temperature, low-luminosity analogs to the RCB phenomenon, though additional examples are needed to fully establish this connection. While RCB stars and DYPers are traditionally identified by epochs of extreme dimming that occurmore » without regularity, the ML search framework more fully captures the richness and diversity of their photometric behavior. We demonstrate that our ML method can use newly discovered RCB stars to identify additional candidates within the same data set. Our search yields 15 candidates that we consider likely RCB stars/DYPers: new spectroscopic observations confirm that four of these candidates are RCB stars and four are DYPers. Our discovery of four new DYPers increases the number of known Galactic DYPers from two to six; noteworthy is that one of the new DYPers has a measured parallax and is m Almost-Equal-To 7 mag, making it the brightest known DYPer to date. Future observations of these new DYPers should prove instrumental in establishing the RCB connection. We consider these results, derived from a machine-learned probabilistic classification catalog, as an important proof-of-concept for the efficient discovery of rare sources with time-domain surveys.« less

Theoretical validation of potential habitability via analytical and boosted tree methods: An optimistic study on recently discovered exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, S.; Basak, S.; Safonova, M.; Bora, K.; Agrawal, S.; Sarkar, P.; Murthy, J.

2018-04-01

Seven Earth-sized planets, known as the TRAPPIST-1 system, was discovered with great fanfare in the last week of February 2017. Three of these planets are in the habitable zone of their star, making them potentially habitable planets (PHPs) a mere 40 light years away. The discovery of the closest potentially habitable planet to us just a year before - Proxima b and a realization that Earth-type planets in circumstellar habitable zones are a common occurrence provides the impetus to the existing pursuit for life outside the Solar System. The search for life has two goals essentially: looking for planets with Earth-like conditions (Earth similarity) and looking for the possibility of life in some form (habitability). An index was recently developed, the Cobb-Douglas Habitability Score (CDHS), based on Cobb-Douglas habitability production function (CD-HPF), which computes the habitability score by using measured and estimated planetary parameters. As an initial set, radius, density, escape velocity and surface temperature of a planet were used. The proposed metric, with exponents accounting for metric elasticity, is endowed with analytical properties that ensure global optima and can be scaled to accommodate a finite number of input parameters. We show here that the model is elastic, and the conditions on elasticity to ensure global maxima can scale as the number of predictor parameters increase. K-NN (K-Nearest Neighbor) classification algorithm, embellished with probabilistic herding and thresholding restriction, utilizes CDHS scores and labels exoplanets into appropriate classes via feature-learning methods yielding granular clusters of habitability. The algorithm works on top of a decision-theoretical model using the power of convex optimization and machine learning. The goal is to characterize the recently discovered exoplanets into an "Earth League" and several other classes based on their CDHS values. A second approach, based on a novel feature-learning and tree-building method classifies the same planets without computing the CDHS of the planets and produces a similar outcome. For this, we use XGBoosted trees. The convergence of the outcome of the two different approaches indicates the strength of the proposed solution scheme and the likelihood of the potential habitability of the recently announced discoveries.

BP-Broker use-cases in the UncertWeb framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roncella, Roberto; Bigagli, Lorenzo; Schulz, Michael; Stasch, Christoph; Proß, Benjamin; Jones, Richard; Santoro, Mattia

2013-04-01

The UncertWeb framework is a distributed, Web-based Information and Communication Technology (ICT) system to support scientific data modeling in presence of uncertainty. We designed and prototyped a core component of the UncertWeb framework: the Business Process Broker. The BP-Broker implements several functionalities, such as: discovery of available processes/BPs, preprocessing of a BP into its executable form (EBP), publication of EBPs and their execution through a workflow-engine. According to the Composition-as-a-Service (CaaS) approach, the BP-Broker supports discovery and chaining of modeling resources (and processing resources in general), providing the necessary interoperability services for creating, validating, editing, storing, publishing, and executing scientific workflows. The UncertWeb project targeted several scenarios, which were used to evaluate and test the BP-Broker. The scenarios cover the following environmental application domains: biodiversity and habitat change, land use and policy modeling, local air quality forecasting, and individual activity in the environment. This work reports on the study of a number of use-cases, by means of the BP-Broker, namely: - eHabitat use-case: implements a Monte Carlo simulation performed on a deterministic ecological model; an extended use-case supports inter-comparison of model outputs; - FERA use-case: is composed of a set of models for predicting land-use and crop yield response to climatic and economic change; - NILU use-case: is composed of a Probabilistic Air Quality Forecasting model for predicting concentrations of air pollutants; - Albatross use-case: includes two model services for simulating activity-travel patterns of individuals in time and space; - Overlay use-case: integrates the NILU scenario with the Albatross scenario to calculate the exposure to air pollutants of individuals. Our aim was to prove the feasibility of describing composite modeling processes with a high-level, abstract notation (i.e. BPMN 2.0), and delegating the resolution of technical issues (e.g. I/O matching) as much as possible to an external service. The results of the experimented solution indicate that this approach facilitates the integration of environmental model workflows into the standard geospatial Web Services framework (e.g. the GEOSS Common Infrastructure), mitigating its inherent complexity. The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement n° 248488.

Parallel Computing for Probabilistic Response Analysis of High Temperature Composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sues, R. H.; Lua, Y. J.; Smith, M. D.

1994-01-01

The objective of this Phase I research was to establish the required software and hardware strategies to achieve large scale parallelism in solving PCM problems. To meet this objective, several investigations were conducted. First, we identified the multiple levels of parallelism in PCM and the computational strategies to exploit these parallelisms. Next, several software and hardware efficiency investigations were conducted. These involved the use of three different parallel programming paradigms and solution of two example problems on both a shared-memory multiprocessor and a distributed-memory network of workstations.

Estimation for the Linear Model With Uncertain Covariance Matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachariah, Dave; Shariati, Nafiseh; Bengtsson, Mats; Jansson, Magnus; Chatterjee, Saikat

2014-03-01

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior inverse-Wishart distributions. The nonconvex problem of jointly estimating the signal of interest and the covariance matrices is tackled by a computationally efficient fixed-point iteration as well as an approximate variational Bayes solution. The statistical performance of estimators is compared numerically to state-of-the-art estimators from the literature and shown to perform favorably.

Nonlinear analysis of NPP safety against the aircraft attack

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Králik, Juraj, E-mail: juraj.kralik@stuba.sk; Králik, Juraj, E-mail: kralik@fa.stuba.sk

The paper presents the nonlinear probabilistic analysis of the reinforced concrete buildings of nuclear power plant under the aircraft attack. The dynamic load is defined in time on base of the airplane impact simulations considering the real stiffness, masses, direction and velocity of the flight. The dynamic response is calculated in the system ANSYS using the transient nonlinear analysis solution method. The damage of the concrete wall is evaluated in accordance with the standard NDRC considering the spalling, scabbing and perforation effects. The simple and detailed calculations of the wall damage are compared.

Fluid transition layer between rigid solute and liquid solvent: is there depletion or enrichment?

PubMed

Djikaev, Yuri S; Ruckenstein, Eli

2016-03-21

The fluid layer between solute and liquid solvent is studied by combining the density functional theory with the probabilistic hydrogen bond model. This combination allows one to obtain the equilibrium distribution of fluid molecules, taking into account the hydrogen bond contribution to the external potential whereto they are subjected near the solute. One can find the effective width of the fluid solvent-solute transition layer and fluid average density in that layer, and determine their dependence on temperature, solvent-solute affinity, vicinal hydrogen bond (hb) energy alteration ratio, and solute radius. Numerical calculations are performed for the solvation of a plate and spherical solutes of four different radii in two model solvents (associated liquid and non-associated one) in the temperature range from 293 K to 333 K for various solvent-solute affinities and hydrogen bond energy alteration ratios. The predictions of our model for the effective width and average density of the transition layer are consistent with experiments and simulations. The small-to-large crossover lengthscale for hydrophobic hydration is expected to be about 3-5 nm. Remarkably, characterizing the transition layer with the average density, one can observe that for small hydrophobes, the transition layer becomes enriched with rather than depleted of fluid when the solvent-solute affinity and hb-energy alteration ratio become large enough. The boundary values of solvent-solute affinity and hb-energy alteration ratio, needed for the "depletion-to-enrichment" crossover (in the smoothed density sense), are predicted to decrease with increasing temperature.

Probabilistic classifiers with high-dimensional data

PubMed Central

Kim, Kyung In; Simon, Richard

2011-01-01

For medical classification problems, it is often desirable to have a probability associated with each class. Probabilistic classifiers have received relatively little attention for small n large p classification problems despite of their importance in medical decision making. In this paper, we introduce 2 criteria for assessment of probabilistic classifiers: well-calibratedness and refinement and develop corresponding evaluation measures. We evaluated several published high-dimensional probabilistic classifiers and developed 2 extensions of the Bayesian compound covariate classifier. Based on simulation studies and analysis of gene expression microarray data, we found that proper probabilistic classification is more difficult than deterministic classification. It is important to ensure that a probabilistic classifier is well calibrated or at least not “anticonservative” using the methods developed here. We provide this evaluation for several probabilistic classifiers and also evaluate their refinement as a function of sample size under weak and strong signal conditions. We also present a cross-validation method for evaluating the calibration and refinement of any probabilistic classifier on any data set. PMID:21087946

Dynamics as a 'Red Flag' in Exoplanetary Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horner, Jonathan; Wittenmyer, Robert

2018-01-01

The great majority of exoplanets are discovered indirectly - by observing a star doing something unusual, and inferring the presence of planets from that behaviour. The nature of those planets - their mass and their orbital parameters - is typically somewhat unclear, with a variety of different scenarios offering equally good fits to the observational data.Typically, authors publish the solution that offers the best fit to the data, without considering the degree to which the planets propsed would interact with one another. This has led to the 'discovery' of planetary systems that are clearly unfeasible - and it is likely that a number of such systems are buried in the catalogue of 'confirmed' exoplanets.Fortunately, there is a solution to this problem. By carrying out suites of n-body integrations of proposed planetary systems, we can find solutions that both offer a good fit to the observational data and the long-term dynamical stability required to give confidence that the planets proposed are truly all they seem.Here, we present the results from a number of such dynamical studies, showing the importance of such simulations to the process of exoplanet discovery and characterisation.

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

PubMed Central

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-01-01

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity, better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04250.001 PMID:25928186

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE PAGES

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

2015-04-30

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Automatic discovery of cell types and microcircuitry from neural connectomics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jonas, Eric; Kording, Konrad

Neural connectomics has begun producing massive amounts of data, necessitating new analysis methods to discover the biological and computational structure. It has long been assumed that discovering neuron types and their relation to microcircuitry is crucial to understanding neural function. Here we developed a non-parametric Bayesian technique that identifies neuron types and microcircuitry patterns in connectomics data. It combines the information traditionally used by biologists in a principled and probabilistically coherent manner, including connectivity, cell body location, and the spatial distribution of synapses. We show that the approach recovers known neuron types in the retina and enables predictions of connectivity,more » better than simpler algorithms. It also can reveal interesting structure in the nervous system of Caenorhabditis elegans and an old man-made microprocessor. Our approach extracts structural meaning from connectomics, enabling new approaches of automatically deriving anatomical insights from these emerging datasets.« less

Mining disease fingerprints from within genetic pathways.

PubMed

Nabhan, Ahmed Ragab; Sarkar, Indra Neil

2012-01-01

Mining biological networks can be an effective means to uncover system level knowledge out of micro level associations, such as encapsulated in genetic pathways. Analysis of human disease genetic pathways can lead to the identification of major mechanisms that may underlie disorders at an abstract functional level. The focus of this study was to develop an approach for structural pattern analysis and classification of genetic pathways of diseases. A probabilistic model was developed to capture characteristic components ('fingerprints') of functionally annotated pathways. A probability estimation procedure of this model searched for fingerprints in each disease pathway while improving probability estimates of model parameters. The approach was evaluated on data from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (consisting of 56 pathways across seven disease categories). Based on the achieved average classification accuracy of up to ~77%, the findings suggest that these fingerprints may be used for classification and discovery of genetic pathways.

Mining Disease Fingerprints From Within Genetic Pathways

PubMed Central

Nabhan, Ahmed Ragab; Sarkar, Indra Neil

2012-01-01

Mining biological networks can be an effective means to uncover system level knowledge out of micro level associations, such as encapsulated in genetic pathways. Analysis of human disease genetic pathways can lead to the identification of major mechanisms that may underlie disorders at an abstract functional level. The focus of this study was to develop an approach for structural pattern analysis and classification of genetic pathways of diseases. A probabilistic model was developed to capture characteristic components (‘fingerprints’) of functionally annotated pathways. A probability estimation procedure of this model searched for fingerprints in each disease pathway while improving probability estimates of model parameters. The approach was evaluated on data from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (consisting of 56 pathways across seven disease categories). Based on the achieved average classification accuracy of up to ∼77%, the findings suggest that these fingerprints may be used for classification and discovery of genetic pathways. PMID:23304411

Computational analysis of conserved RNA secondary structure in transcriptomes and genomes.

PubMed

Eddy, Sean R

2014-01-01

Transcriptomics experiments and computational predictions both enable systematic discovery of new functional RNAs. However, many putative noncoding transcripts arise instead from artifacts and biological noise, and current computational prediction methods have high false positive rates. I discuss prospects for improving computational methods for analyzing and identifying functional RNAs, with a focus on detecting signatures of conserved RNA secondary structure. An interesting new front is the application of chemical and enzymatic experiments that probe RNA structure on a transcriptome-wide scale. I review several proposed approaches for incorporating structure probing data into the computational prediction of RNA secondary structure. Using probabilistic inference formalisms, I show how all these approaches can be unified in a well-principled framework, which in turn allows RNA probing data to be easily integrated into a wide range of analyses that depend on RNA secondary structure inference. Such analyses include homology search and genome-wide detection of new structural RNAs.

An Improved Method for Seismic Event Depth and Moment Tensor Determination: CTBT Related Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stachnik, J.; Rozhkov, M.; Baker, B.

2016-12-01

According to the Protocol to CTBT, International Data Center is required to conduct expert technical analysis and special studies to improve event parameters and assist State Parties in identifying the source of specific event. Determination of seismic event source mechanism and its depth is a part of these tasks. It is typically done through a strategic linearized inversion of the waveforms for a complete or subset of source parameters, or similarly defined grid search through precomputed Greens Functions created for particular source models. We show preliminary results using the latter approach from an improved software design and applied on a moderately powered computer. In this development we tried to be compliant with different modes of CTBT monitoring regime and cover wide range of source-receiver distances (regional to teleseismic), resolve shallow source depths, provide full moment tensor solution based on body and surface waves recordings, be fast to satisfy both on-demand studies and automatic processing and properly incorporate observed waveforms and any uncertainties a priori as well as accurately estimate posteriori uncertainties. Implemented HDF5 based Green's Functions pre-packaging allows much greater flexibility in utilizing different software packages and methods for computation. Further additions will have the rapid use of Instaseis/AXISEM full waveform synthetics added to a pre-computed GF archive. Along with traditional post processing analysis of waveform misfits through several objective functions and variance reduction, we follow a probabilistic approach to assess the robustness of moment tensor solution. In a course of this project full moment tensor and depth estimates are determined for DPRK 2009, 2013 and 2016 events and shallow earthquakes using a new implementation of waveform fitting of teleseismic P waves. A full grid search over the entire moment tensor space is used to appropriately sample all possible solutions. A recent method by Tape & Tape (2012) to discretize the complete moment tensor space from a geometric perspective is used. Moment tensors for DPRK events show isotropic percentages greater than 50%. Depth estimates for the DPRK events range from 1.0-1.4 km. Probabilistic uncertainty estimates on the moment tensor parameters provide robustness to solution.

A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of the Halpern and Pearl Definition of ‘Actual Cause’

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Joseph Halpern and Judea Pearl ([2005]) draw upon structural equation models to develop an attractive analysis of ‘actual cause’. Their analysis is designed for the case of deterministic causation. I show that their account can be naturally extended to provide an elegant treatment of probabilistic causation. 1Introduction2Preemption3Structural Equation Models4The Halpern and Pearl Definition of ‘Actual Cause’5Preemption Again6The Probabilistic Case7Probabilistic Causal Models8A Proposed Probabilistic Extension of Halpern and Pearl’s Definition9Twardy and Korb’s Account10Probabilistic Fizzling11Conclusion PMID:29593362

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion system components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

The fourth year of technical developments on the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) system for Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods is summarized. The effort focused on the continued expansion of the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM) code, the implementation of the Probabilistic Boundary Element Method (PBEM), and the implementation of the Probabilistic Approximate Methods (PAppM) code. The principal focus for the PFEM code is the addition of a multilevel structural dynamics capability. The strategy includes probabilistic loads, treatment of material, geometry uncertainty, and full probabilistic variables. Enhancements are included for the Fast Probability Integration (FPI) algorithms and the addition of Monte Carlo simulation as an alternate. Work on the expert system and boundary element developments continues. The enhanced capability in the computer codes is validated by applications to a turbine blade and to an oxidizer duct.

The Future Workforce in Cancer Prevention: Advancing Discovery, Research, and Technology

PubMed Central

Newhauser, Wayne. D.; Scheurer, Michael. E.; Faupel-Badger, Jessica. M.; Clague, Jessica.; Weitzel, Jeffrey.; Woods, Kendra. V.

2012-01-01

As part of a 2 day conference on October 15 and 16, 2009, a nine-member task force composed of scientists, clinicians, educators, administrators, and students from across the United States was formed to discuss research, discovery, and technology obstacles to progress in cancer prevention and control, specifically those related to the cancer prevention workforce. This article summarizes the task force’s findings on the current state of the cancer prevention workforce in this area and its needs for the future. The task force identified two types of barriers impeding the current cancer prevention workforce in research, discovery, and technology from reaching its fullest potential: 1) limited cross-disciplinary research opportunities with underutilization of some disciplines is hampering discovery and research in cancer prevention, and 2) new research avenues are not being investigated because technology development and implementation are lagging. Examples of impediments and desired outcomes are provided in each of these areas. Recommended solutions to these problems are based on the goals of enhancing the current cancer prevention workforce and accelerating the pace of discovery and clinical translation. PMID:22314794

The future workforce in cancer prevention: advancing discovery, research, and technology.

PubMed

Newhauser, Wayne D; Scheurer, Michael E; Faupel-Badger, Jessica M; Clague, Jessica; Weitzel, Jeffrey; Woods, Kendra V

2012-05-01

As part of a 2-day conference on October 15 and 16, 2009, a nine-member task force composed of scientists, clinicians, educators, administrators, and students from across the USA was formed to discuss research, discovery, and technology obstacles to progress in cancer prevention and control, specifically those related to the cancer prevention workforce. This article summarizes the task force's findings on the current state of the cancer prevention workforce in this area and its needs for the future. The task force identified two types of barriers impeding the current cancer prevention workforce in research, discovery, and technology from reaching its fullest potential: (1) limited cross-disciplinary research opportunities with underutilization of some disciplines is hampering discovery and research in cancer prevention, and (2) new research avenues are not being investigated because technology development and implementation are lagging. Examples of impediments and desired outcomes are provided in each of these areas. Recommended solutions to these problems are based on the goals of enhancing the current cancer prevention workforce and accelerating the pace of discovery and clinical translation.

Comparison of unitary associations and probabilistic ranking and scaling as applied to mesozoic radiolarians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baumgartner, Peter O.

A database on Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous radiolarians consisting of first and final occurrences of 110 species in 226 samples from 43 localities was used to compute Unitary Associations and probabilistic ranking and scaling (RASC), in order to test deterministic versus probabilistic quantitative biostratigraphic methods. Because the Mesozoic radiolarian fossil record is mainly dissolution-controlled, the sequence of events differs greatly from section to section. The scatter of local first and final appearances along a time scale is large compared to the species range; it is asymmetrical, with a maximum near the ends of the range and it is non-random. Thus, these data do not satisfy the statistical assumptions made in ranking and scaling. Unitary Associations produce maximum ranges of the species relative to each other by stacking cooccurrence data from all sections and therefore compensate for the local dissolution effects. Ranking and scaling, based on the assumption of a normal random distribution of the events, produces average ranges which are for most species much shorter than the maximum UA-ranges. There are, however, a number of species with similar ranges in both solutions. These species are believed to be the most dissolution-resistant and, therefore, the most reliable ones for the definition of biochronozones. The comparison of maximum and average ranges may be a powerful tool to test reliability of species for biochronology. Dissolution-controlled fossil data yield high crossover frequencies and therefore small, statistically insignificant interfossil distances. Scaling has not produced a useful sequence for this type of data.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

PubMed

Makin, Joseph G; Dichter, Benjamin K; Sabes, Philip N

2015-11-01

Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes

PubMed Central

Sabes, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Tracking moving objects, including one’s own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF), the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm). The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, “probabilistic population codes.” We show that a recurrent neural network—a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH)—that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts) to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states. PMID:26540152

In search of a statistical probability model for petroleum-resource assessment : a critique of the probabilistic significance of certain concepts and methods used in petroleum-resource assessment : to that end, a probabilistic model is sketched

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grossling, Bernardo F.

1975-01-01

Exploratory drilling is still in incipient or youthful stages in those areas of the world where the bulk of the potential petroleum resources is yet to be discovered. Methods of assessing resources from projections based on historical production and reserve data are limited to mature areas. For most of the world's petroleum-prospective areas, a more speculative situation calls for a critical review of resource-assessment methodology. The language of mathematical statistics is required to define more rigorously the appraisal of petroleum resources. Basically, two approaches have been used to appraise the amounts of undiscovered mineral resources in a geologic province: (1) projection models, which use statistical data on the past outcome of exploration and development in the province; and (2) estimation models of the overall resources of the province, which use certain known parameters of the province together with the outcome of exploration and development in analogous provinces. These two approaches often lead to widely different estimates. Some of the controversy that arises results from a confusion of the probabilistic significance of the quantities yielded by each of the two approaches. Also, inherent limitations of analytic projection models-such as those using the logistic and Gomperts functions --have often been ignored. The resource-assessment problem should be recast in terms that provide for consideration of the probability of existence of the resource and of the probability of discovery of a deposit. Then the two above-mentioned models occupy the two ends of the probability range. The new approach accounts for (1) what can be expected with reasonably high certainty by mere projections of what has been accomplished in the past; (2) the inherent biases of decision-makers and resource estimators; (3) upper bounds that can be set up as goals for exploration; and (4) the uncertainties in geologic conditions in a search for minerals. Actual outcomes can then be viewed as phenomena subject to statistical uncertainty and responsive to changes in economic and technologic factors.

Quantifying uncertainty in stable isotope mixing models

DOE PAGES

Davis, Paul; Syme, James; Heikoop, Jeffrey; ...

2015-05-19

Mixing models are powerful tools for identifying biogeochemical sources and determining mixing fractions in a sample. However, identification of actual source contributors is often not simple, and source compositions typically vary or even overlap, significantly increasing model uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions. This study compares three probabilistic methods, SIAR [ Parnell et al., 2010] a pure Monte Carlo technique (PMC), and Stable Isotope Reference Source (SIRS) mixing model, a new technique that estimates mixing in systems with more than three sources and/or uncertain source compositions. In this paper, we use nitrate stable isotope examples (δ 15N and δ 18O) butmore » all methods tested are applicable to other tracers. In Phase I of a three-phase blind test, we compared methods for a set of six-source nitrate problems. PMC was unable to find solutions for two of the target water samples. The Bayesian method, SIAR, experienced anchoring problems, and SIRS calculated mixing fractions that most closely approximated the known mixing fractions. For that reason, SIRS was the only approach used in the next phase of testing. In Phase II, the problem was broadened where any subset of the six sources could be a possible solution to the mixing problem. Results showed a high rate of Type I errors where solutions included sources that were not contributing to the sample. In Phase III some sources were eliminated based on assumed site knowledge and assumed nitrate concentrations, substantially reduced mixing fraction uncertainties and lowered the Type I error rate. These results demonstrate that valuable insights into stable isotope mixing problems result from probabilistic mixing model approaches like SIRS. The results also emphasize the importance of identifying a minimal set of potential sources and quantifying uncertainties in source isotopic composition as well as demonstrating the value of additional information in reducing the uncertainty in calculated mixing fractions.« less

Is probabilistic bias analysis approximately Bayesian?

PubMed Central

MacLehose, Richard F.; Gustafson, Paul

2011-01-01

Case-control studies are particularly susceptible to differential exposure misclassification when exposure status is determined following incident case status. Probabilistic bias analysis methods have been developed as ways to adjust standard effect estimates based on the sensitivity and specificity of exposure misclassification. The iterative sampling method advocated in probabilistic bias analysis bears a distinct resemblance to a Bayesian adjustment; however, it is not identical. Furthermore, without a formal theoretical framework (Bayesian or frequentist), the results of a probabilistic bias analysis remain somewhat difficult to interpret. We describe, both theoretically and empirically, the extent to which probabilistic bias analysis can be viewed as approximately Bayesian. While the differences between probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to misclassification can be substantial, these situations often involve unrealistic prior specifications and are relatively easy to detect. Outside of these special cases, probabilistic bias analysis and Bayesian approaches to exposure misclassification in case-control studies appear to perform equally well. PMID:22157311

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of SSME Turbopump Blades: Probabilistic Geometry Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagpal, V. K.

1985-01-01

A probabilistic study was initiated to evaluate the precisions of the geometric and material properties tolerances on the structural response of turbopump blades. To complete this study, a number of important probabilistic variables were identified which are conceived to affect the structural response of the blade. In addition, a methodology was developed to statistically quantify the influence of these probabilistic variables in an optimized way. The identified variables include random geometric and material properties perturbations, different loadings and a probabilistic combination of these loadings. Influences of these probabilistic variables are planned to be quantified by evaluating the blade structural response. Studies of the geometric perturbations were conducted for a flat plate geometry as well as for a space shuttle main engine blade geometry using a special purpose code which uses the finite element approach. Analyses indicate that the variances of the perturbations about given mean values have significant influence on the response.

Automatic classification of time-variable X-ray sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lo, Kitty K.; Farrell, Sean; Murphy, Tara

2014-05-01

To maximize the discovery potential of future synoptic surveys, especially in the field of transient science, it will be necessary to use automatic classification to identify some of the astronomical sources. The data mining technique of supervised classification is suitable for this problem. Here, we present a supervised learning method to automatically classify variable X-ray sources in the Second XMM-Newton Serendipitous Source Catalog (2XMMi-DR2). Random Forest is our classifier of choice since it is one of the most accurate learning algorithms available. Our training set consists of 873 variable sources and their features are derived from time series, spectra, andmore » other multi-wavelength contextual information. The 10 fold cross validation accuracy of the training data is ∼97% on a 7 class data set. We applied the trained classification model to 411 unknown variable 2XMM sources to produce a probabilistically classified catalog. Using the classification margin and the Random Forest derived outlier measure, we identified 12 anomalous sources, of which 2XMM J180658.7–500250 appears to be the most unusual source in the sample. Its X-ray spectra is suggestive of a ultraluminous X-ray source but its variability makes it highly unusual. Machine-learned classification and anomaly detection will facilitate scientific discoveries in the era of all-sky surveys.« less

Treatment evolution and new standards of care: implications for cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Shechter, Steven M

2011-01-01

Traditional approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis have not considered the downstream possibility of a new standard of care coming out of the research and development pipeline. However, the treatment landscape for patients may change significantly over the course of their lifetimes. To present a Markov modeling framework that incorporates the possibility of treatment evolution into the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) that compares treatments available at the present time. . Markov model evaluated by matrix algebra. Measurements. The author evaluates the difference between the new and traditional ICER calculations for patients with chronic diseases facing a lifetime of treatment. The bias of the traditional ICER calculation may be substantial, with further testing revealing that it may be either positive or negative depending on the model parameters. The author also performs probabilistic sensitivity analyses with respect to the possible timing of a new treatment discovery and notes the increase in the magnitude of the bias when the new treatment is likely to appear sooner rather than later. Limitations. The modeling framework is intended as a proof of concept and therefore makes simplifying assumptions such as time stationarity of model parameters and consideration of a single new drug discovery. For diseases with a more active research and development pipeline, the possibility of a new treatment paradigm may be at least as important to consider in sensitivity analysis as other parameters that are often considered.

Chemistry of americium

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schulz, W.W.

1976-01-01

Essential features of the descriptive chemistry of americium are reviewed. Chapter titles are: discovery, atomic and nuclear properties, collateral reading, production and uses, chemistry in aqueous solution, metal, alloys, and compounds, and, recovery, separation, purification. Author and subject indexes are included. (JCB)

Development of probabilistic multimedia multipathway computer codes.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, C.; LePoire, D.; Gnanapragasam, E.

2002-01-01

The deterministic multimedia dose/risk assessment codes RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD have been widely used for many years for evaluation of sites contaminated with residual radioactive materials. The RESRAD code applies to the cleanup of sites (soils) and the RESRAD-BUILD code applies to the cleanup of buildings and structures. This work describes the procedure used to enhance the deterministic RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes for probabilistic dose analysis. A six-step procedure was used in developing default parameter distributions and the probabilistic analysis modules. These six steps include (1) listing and categorizing parameters; (2) ranking parameters; (3) developing parameter distributions; (4) testing parameter distributionsmore » for probabilistic analysis; (5) developing probabilistic software modules; and (6) testing probabilistic modules and integrated codes. The procedures used can be applied to the development of other multimedia probabilistic codes. The probabilistic versions of RESRAD and RESRAD-BUILD codes provide tools for studying the uncertainty in dose assessment caused by uncertain input parameters. The parameter distribution data collected in this work can also be applied to other multimedia assessment tasks and multimedia computer codes.« less

Probabilistic structural analysis methods for select space propulsion system components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H. R.; Cruse, T. A.

1989-01-01

The Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project developed at the Southwest Research Institute integrates state-of-the-art structural analysis techniques with probability theory for the design and analysis of complex large-scale engineering structures. An advanced efficient software system (NESSUS) capable of performing complex probabilistic analysis has been developed. NESSUS contains a number of software components to perform probabilistic analysis of structures. These components include: an expert system, a probabilistic finite element code, a probabilistic boundary element code and a fast probability integrator. The NESSUS software system is shown. An expert system is included to capture and utilize PSAM knowledge and experience. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator (FPI). The expert system menu structure is summarized. The NESSUS system contains a state-of-the-art nonlinear probabilistic finite element code, NESSUS/FEM, to determine the structural response and sensitivities. A broad range of analysis capabilities and an extensive element library is present.

Frontal and Parietal Contributions to Probabilistic Association Learning

PubMed Central

Rushby, Jacqueline A.; Vercammen, Ans; Loo, Colleen; Short, Brooke

2011-01-01

Neuroimaging studies have shown both dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC) and inferior parietal cortex (iPARC) activation during probabilistic association learning. Whether these cortical brain regions are necessary for probabilistic association learning is presently unknown. Participants' ability to acquire probabilistic associations was assessed during disruptive 1 Hz repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the left DLPFC, left iPARC, and sham using a crossover single-blind design. On subsequent sessions, performance improved relative to baseline except during DLPFC rTMS that disrupted the early acquisition beneficial effect of prior exposure. A second experiment examining rTMS effects on task-naive participants showed that neither DLPFC rTMS nor sham influenced naive acquisition of probabilistic associations. A third experiment examining consecutive administration of the probabilistic association learning test revealed early trial interference from previous exposure to different probability schedules. These experiments, showing disrupted acquisition of probabilistic associations by rTMS only during subsequent sessions with an intervening night's sleep, suggest that the DLPFC may facilitate early access to learned strategies or prior task-related memories via consolidation. Although neuroimaging studies implicate DLPFC and iPARC in probabilistic association learning, the present findings suggest that early acquisition of the probabilistic cue-outcome associations in task-naive participants is not dependent on either region. PMID:21216842

A Survey of Statistical Models for Reverse Engineering Gene Regulatory Networks

PubMed Central

Huang, Yufei; Tienda-Luna, Isabel M.; Wang, Yufeng

2009-01-01

Statistical models for reverse engineering gene regulatory networks are surveyed in this article. To provide readers with a system-level view of the modeling issues in this research, a graphical modeling framework is proposed. This framework serves as the scaffolding on which the review of different models can be systematically assembled. Based on the framework, we review many existing models for many aspects of gene regulation; the pros and cons of each model are discussed. In addition, network inference algorithms are also surveyed under the graphical modeling framework by the categories of point solutions and probabilistic solutions and the connections and differences among the algorithms are provided. This survey has the potential to elucidate the development and future of reverse engineering GRNs and bring statistical signal processing closer to the core of this research. PMID:20046885

An Analysis of Automated Solutions for the Certification and Accreditation of Navy Medicine Information Assets

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-09-01

discovery of network security threats and vulnerabilities will be done by doing penetration testing during the C&A process. This can be done on a...2.1.1; Appendix E, J COBR -1 Protection of Backup and Restoration Assets Availability 1.3.1; 2.1.3; 2.1.7; 3.1; 4.3; Appendix J, M CODB-2 Data... discovery , inventory, scanning and loading of C&A information in its central database, (2) automatic generation of the SRTM , (3) automatic generation

Distributed Multi-interface Catalogue for Geospatial Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nativi, S.; Bigagli, L.; Mazzetti, P.; Mattia, U.; Boldrini, E.

2007-12-01

Several geosciences communities (e.g. atmospheric science, oceanography, hydrology) have developed tailored data and metadata models and service protocol specifications for enabling online data discovery, inventory, evaluation, access and download. These specifications are conceived either profiling geospatial information standards or extending the well-accepted geosciences data models and protocols in order to capture more semantics. These artifacts have generated a set of related catalog -and inventory services- characterizing different communities, initiatives and projects. In fact, these geospatial data catalogs are discovery and access systems that use metadata as the target for query on geospatial information. The indexed and searchable metadata provide a disciplined vocabulary against which intelligent geospatial search can be performed within or among communities. There exists a clear need to conceive and achieve solutions to implement interoperability among geosciences communities, in the context of the more general geospatial information interoperability framework. Such solutions should provide search and access capabilities across catalogs, inventory lists and their registered resources. Thus, the development of catalog clearinghouse solutions is a near-term challenge in support of fully functional and useful infrastructures for spatial data (e.g. INSPIRE, GMES, NSDI, GEOSS). This implies the implementation of components for query distribution and virtual resource aggregation. These solutions must implement distributed discovery functionalities in an heterogeneous environment, requiring metadata profiles harmonization as well as protocol adaptation and mediation. We present a catalog clearinghouse solution for the interoperability of several well-known cataloguing systems (e.g. OGC CSW, THREDDS catalog and data services). The solution implements consistent resource discovery and evaluation over a dynamic federation of several well-known cataloguing and inventory systems. Prominent features include: 1)Support to distributed queries over a hierarchical data model, supporting incremental queries (i.e. query over collections, to be subsequently refined) and opaque/translucent chaining; 2)Support to several client protocols, through a compound front-end interface module. This allows to accommodate a (growing) number of cataloguing standards, or profiles thereof, including the OGC CSW interface, ebRIM Application Profile (for Core ISO Metadata and other data models), and the ISO Application Profile. The presented catalog clearinghouse supports both the opaque and translucent pattern for service chaining. In fact, the clearinghouse catalog may be configured either to completely hide the underlying federated services or to provide clients with services information. In both cases, the clearinghouse solution presents a higher level interface (i.e. OGC CSW) which harmonizes multiple lower level services (e.g. OGC CSW, WMS and WCS, THREDDS, etc.), and handles all control and interaction with them. In the translucent case, client has the option to directly access the lower level services (e.g. to improve performances). In the GEOSS context, the solution has been experimented both as a stand-alone user application and as a service framework. The first scenario allows a user to download a multi-platform client software and query a federation of cataloguing systems, that he can customize at will. The second scenario support server-side deployment and can be flexibly adapted to several use-cases, such as intranet proxy, catalog broker, etc.

New U.S. Geological Survey Method for the Assessment of Reserve Growth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klett, Timothy R.; Attanasi, E.D.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Freeman, P.A.; Gautier, Donald L.; Le, Phuong A.; Ryder, Robert T.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Verma, Mahendra K.

2011-01-01

Reserve growth is defined as the estimated increases in quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that have the potential to be added to remaining reserves in discovered accumulations through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and additions of new pools or reservoirs. A new U.S. Geological Survey method was developed to assess the reserve-growth potential of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas to be added to reserves under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which reasonably can be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays. This method currently is in use to assess potential additions to reserves in discovered fields of the United States. The new approach involves (1) individual analysis of selected large accumulations that contribute most to reserve growth, and (2) conventional statistical modeling of reserve growth in remaining accumulations. This report will focus on the individual accumulation analysis. In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated reserve growth by statistical methods using historical recoverable-quantity data. Those statistical methods were based on growth rates averaged by the number of years since accumulation discovery. Accumulations in mature petroleum provinces with volumetrically significant reserve growth, however, bias statistical models of the data; therefore, accumulations with significant reserve growth are best analyzed separately from those with less significant reserve growth. Large (greater than 500 million barrels) and older (with respect to year of discovery) oil accumulations increase in size at greater rates late in their development history in contrast to more recently discovered accumulations that achieve most growth early in their development history. Such differences greatly affect the statistical methods commonly used to forecast reserve growth. The individual accumulation-analysis method involves estimating the in-place petroleum quantity and its uncertainty, as well as the estimated (forecasted) recoverability and its respective uncertainty. These variables are assigned probabilistic distributions and are combined statistically to provide probabilistic estimates of ultimate recoverable quantities. Cumulative production and remaining reserves are then subtracted from the estimated ultimate recoverable quantities to provide potential reserve growth. In practice, results of the two methods are aggregated to various scales, the highest of which includes an entire country or the world total. The aggregated results are reported along with the statistically appropriate uncertainties.

Probabilistic Ontology Architecture for a Terrorist Identification Decision Support System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

in real-world problems requires probabilistic ontologies, which integrate the inferential reasoning power of probabilistic representations with the... inferential reasoning power of probabilistic representations with the first-order expressivity of ontologies. The Reference Architecture for...ontology, terrorism, inferential reasoning, architecture I. INTRODUCTION A. Background Whether by nature or design, the personas of terrorists are

Probabilistic Evaluation of Blade Impact Damage

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Abumeri, G. H.

2003-01-01

The response to high velocity impact of a composite blade is probabilistically evaluated. The evaluation is focused on quantifying probabilistically the effects of uncertainties (scatter) in the variables that describe the impact, the blade make-up (geometry and material), the blade response (displacements, strains, stresses, frequencies), the blade residual strength after impact, and the blade damage tolerance. The results of probabilistic evaluations results are in terms of probability cumulative distribution functions and probabilistic sensitivities. Results show that the blade has relatively low damage tolerance at 0.999 probability of structural failure and substantial at 0.01 probability.

Probabilistic Simulation of Stress Concentration in Composite Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Murthy, P. L. N.; Liaw, D. G.

1994-01-01

A computational methodology is described to probabilistically simulate the stress concentration factors (SCF's) in composite laminates. This new approach consists of coupling probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic finite element structural analysis. The composite mechanics is used to probabilistically describe all the uncertainties inherent in composite material properties, whereas the finite element is used to probabilistically describe the uncertainties associated with methods to experimentally evaluate SCF's, such as loads, geometry, and supports. The effectiveness of the methodology is demonstrated by using is to simulate the SCF's in three different composite laminates. Simulated results match experimental data for probability density and for cumulative distribution functions. The sensitivity factors indicate that the SCF's are influenced by local stiffness variables, by load eccentricities, and by initial stress fields.

Unpacking the species conundrum: philosophy, practice and a way forward.

PubMed

Shanker, Kartik; Vijayakumar, S P; Ganeshaiah, K N

2017-07-01

The history of ecology and evolutionary biology is rife with attempts to define and delimit species. However, there has been confusion between concepts and criteria, which has led to discussion, debate, and conflict, eventually leading to lack of consistency in delimitation. Here, we provide a broad review of species concepts, a clarification of category versus concept, an account of the general lineage concept (GLC), and finally a way forward for species discovery and delimitation. Historically, species were considered as varieties bound together by reproduction. After over 200 years of uncertainty, Mayr attempted to bring coherence to the definition of species through the biological species concept (BSC). This has, however, received much criticism, and the last half century has spawned at least 20 other concepts. A central philosophical problem is that concepts treat species as 'individuals' while the criteria for categorization treats them as 'classes'. While not getting away from this problem entirely, the GLC attempts to provide a framework where lineage divergence is influenced by a number of different factors (and correlated to different traits) which relate to the different species concepts. We also introduce an 'inclusive' probabilistic approach for understanding and delimiting species. Finally, we provide aWallacean (geography related) approach to the Linnaean problem of identifying and delimiting species, particularly for cases of allopatric divergence, and map this to the GLC. Going one step further, we take a morphometric terrain approach to visualizing and understanding differences between lineages. In summary, we argue that while generalized frameworks may work well for concepts of what species are, plurality and 'inclusive' probabilistic approaches may work best for delimitation.

The discovery of medicines for rare diseases

PubMed Central

Swinney, David C; Xia, Shuangluo

2015-01-01

There is a pressing need for new medicines (new molecular entities; NMEs) for rare diseases as few of the 6800 rare diseases (according to the NIH) have approved treatments. Drug discovery strategies for the 102 orphan NMEs approved by the US FDA between 1999 and 2012 were analyzed to learn from past success: 46 NMEs were first in class; 51 were followers; and five were imaging agents. First-in-class medicines were discovered with phenotypic assays (15), target-based approaches (12) and biologic strategies (18). Identification of genetic causes in areas with more basic and translational research such as cancer and in-born errors in metabolism contributed to success regardless of discovery strategy. In conclusion, greater knowledge increases the chance of success and empirical solutions can be effective when knowledge is incomplete. PMID:25068983

Autonomous Navigation of a Satellite Cluster

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

satellite’s velocity are determined by the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations I (these equations will be introduced in the next section) and take the form: (8:80...transition matrix, is based upon the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations of motion. These equations describe "the relative motion of two satellites when one is in a...discovery warranted a re-examination of the solutions to the Clohessy - Wiltshire equations. If the solutions for satellite #1 and #2 are subtracted

NMR approaches in structure-based lead discovery: Recent developments and new frontiers for targeting multi-protein complexes

PubMed Central

Dias, David M.; Ciulli, Alessio

2014-01-01

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is a pivotal method for structure-based and fragment-based lead discovery because it is one of the most robust techniques to provide information on protein structure, dynamics and interaction at an atomic level in solution. Nowadays, in most ligand screening cascades, NMR-based methods are applied to identify and structurally validate small molecule binding. These can be high-throughput and are often used synergistically with other biophysical assays. Here, we describe current state-of-the-art in the portfolio of available NMR-based experiments that are used to aid early-stage lead discovery. We then focus on multi-protein complexes as targets and how NMR spectroscopy allows studying of interactions within the high molecular weight assemblies that make up a vast fraction of the yet untargeted proteome. Finally, we give our perspective on how currently available methods could build an improved strategy for drug discovery against such challenging targets. PMID:25175337

Intrinsic flexibility of West Nile virus protease in solution characterized using small-angle X-ray scattering.

PubMed

Garces, Andrea P; Watowich, Stanley J

2013-10-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus with a rapidly expanding global distribution. Infection can cause severe neurological disease and fatality in humans. Efforts are ongoing to develop antiviral drugs that inhibit the WNV protease, a viral enzyme required for polyprotein processing. Unfortunately, little is known about the solution structure of recombinant WNV protease (NS2B-NS3pro) used for antiviral drug discovery and development, although X-ray crystal structures and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies have provided valuable insights into the interactions between NS2B-NS3pro and peptide-based inhibitors. We completed small-angle X-ray scattering and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy experiments to determine the solution structure and dynamics of WNV NS2B-NS3pro in the absence of a bound substrate or inhibitor. Importantly, these solution studies suggested that all or most of the NS2B cofactor was highly flexible and formed an ensemble of structures, in contrast to the NS2B tertiary structures observed in crystallographic and NMR studies. The secondary structure of NS2B-NS3pro in solution had high β-content, similar to the secondary structure observed in crystallographic studies. This work provided evidence of the intrinsic flexibility and conformational heterogeneity of the NS2B chain of the WNV protease in the absence of substratelike ligands, which should be considered during antiviral drug discovery and development efforts.

Probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets in decision making with positive and negative parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatimah, F.; Rosadi, D.; Hakim, R. B. F.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we motivate and introduce probabilistic soft sets and dual probabilistic soft sets for handling decision making problem in the presence of positive and negative parameters. We propose several types of algorithms related to this problem. Our procedures are flexible and adaptable. An example on real data is also given.

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples

PubMed Central

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2009-01-01

Abstract We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples. PMID:19888348

Learning Probabilistic Logic Models from Probabilistic Examples.

PubMed

Chen, Jianzhong; Muggleton, Stephen; Santos, José

2008-10-01

We revisit an application developed originally using abductive Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) for modeling inhibition in metabolic networks. The example data was derived from studies of the effects of toxins on rats using Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) time-trace analysis of their biofluids together with background knowledge representing a subset of the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG). We now apply two Probabilistic ILP (PILP) approaches - abductive Stochastic Logic Programs (SLPs) and PRogramming In Statistical modeling (PRISM) to the application. Both approaches support abductive learning and probability predictions. Abductive SLPs are a PILP framework that provides possible worlds semantics to SLPs through abduction. Instead of learning logic models from non-probabilistic examples as done in ILP, the PILP approach applied in this paper is based on a general technique for introducing probability labels within a standard scientific experimental setting involving control and treated data. Our results demonstrate that the PILP approach provides a way of learning probabilistic logic models from probabilistic examples, and the PILP models learned from probabilistic examples lead to a significant decrease in error accompanied by improved insight from the learned results compared with the PILP models learned from non-probabilistic examples.

Probabilistic simulation of uncertainties in thermal structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.; Shiao, Michael

1990-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (3) evaluation of the failure probability; (4) reliability and risk-cost assessment, and (5) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual hot structures certification. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of hot structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic framework. In addition, the approach can be readily extended to computationally simulate certification of hot structures for aerospace environments.

Consolidating a Distributed Compound Management Capability into a Single Installation: The Application of Overall Equipment Effectiveness to Determine Capacity Utilization.

PubMed

Green, Clive; Taylor, Daniel

2016-12-01

Compound management (CM) is a critical discipline enabling hit discovery through the production of assay-ready compound plates for screening. CM in pharma requires significant investments in manpower, capital equipment, repairs and maintenance, and information technology. These investments are at risk from external factors, for example, new technology rendering existing equipment obsolete and strategic site closures. At AstraZeneca, we faced the challenge of evaluating the number of CM sites required to support hit discovery in response to site closures and pressure on our operating budget. We reasoned that overall equipment effectiveness, a tool used extensively in the manufacturing sector, could determine the equipment capacity and appropriate number of sites. We identified automation downtime as the critical component governing capacity, and a connection between automation downtime and the availability of skilled staff. We demonstrated that sufficient production capacity existed in two sites to meet hit discovery demand without the requirement for an additional investment of $7 million in new facilities. In addition, we developed an automated capacity model that incorporated an extended working-day pattern as a solution for reducing automation downtime. The application of this solution enabled the transition to a single site, with an annual cost saving of $2.1 million. © 2015 Society for Laboratory Automation and Screening.

Information flow through threespine stickleback networks without social transmission

PubMed Central

Atton, N.; Hoppitt, W.; Webster, M. M.; Galef, B. G.; Laland, K. N.

2012-01-01

Social networks can result in directed social transmission of learned information, thus influencing how innovations spread through populations. Here we presented shoals of threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteous aculeatus) with two identical foraging tasks and applied network-based diffusion analysis (NBDA) to determine whether the order in which individuals in a social group contacted and solved the tasks was affected by the group's network structure. We found strong evidence for a social effect on discovery of the foraging tasks with individuals tending to discover a task sooner when others in their group had previously done so, and with the spread of discovery of the foraging tasks influenced by groups' social networks. However, the same patterns of association did not reliably predict spread of solution to the tasks, suggesting that social interactions affected the time at which the tasks were discovered, but not the latency to its solution following discovery. The present analysis, one of the first applications of NBDA to a natural animal system, illustrates how NBDA can lead to insight into the mechanisms supporting behaviour acquisition that more conventional statistical approaches might miss. Importantly, we provide the first compelling evidence that the spread of novel behaviours can result from social learning in the absence of social transmission, a phenomenon that we refer to as an untransmitted social effect on learning. PMID:22896644

Recent developments of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H.; Wu, Y.-T.; Torng, T.; Thacker, B.; Riha, D.; Leung, C. P.

1992-01-01

The NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis computer program combines state-of-the-art probabilistic algorithms with general purpose structural analysis methods to compute the probabilistic response and the reliability of engineering structures. Uncertainty in loading, material properties, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions can be simulated. The structural analysis methods include nonlinear finite element and boundary element methods. Several probabilistic algorithms are available such as the advanced mean value method and the adaptive importance sampling method. The scope of the code has recently been expanded to include probabilistic life and fatigue prediction of structures in terms of component and system reliability and risk analysis of structures considering cost of failure. The code is currently being extended to structural reliability considering progressive crack propagation. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the new capabilities.

Asymptotics of QCD traveling waves with fluctuations and running coupling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beuf, Guillaume

2008-09-01

Extending the Balitsky-Kovchegov (BK) equation independently to running coupling or to fluctuation effects due to pomeron loops is known to lead in both cases to qualitative changes of the traveling-wave asymptotic solutions. In this paper we study the extension of the forward BK equation, including both running coupling and fluctuations effects, extending the method developed for the fixed coupling case [E. Brunet, B. Derrida, A.H. Mueller, S. Munier, Phys. Rev. E 73 (2006) 056126, cond-mat/0512021]. We derive the exact asymptotic behavior in rapidity of the probabilistic distribution of the saturation scale.

Inferential Framework for Autonomous Cryogenic Loading Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Khasin, Michael; Timucin, Dogan; Sass, Jared; Perotti, Jose; Brown, Barbara

2017-01-01

We address problem of autonomous cryogenic management of loading operations on the ground and in space. As a step towards solution of this problem we develop a probabilistic framework for inferring correlations parameters of two-fluid cryogenic flow. The simulation of two-phase cryogenic flow is performed using nearly-implicit scheme. A concise set of cryogenic correlations is introduced. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of the cryogenic flow in experimental Propellant Loading System built at NASA KSC. An efficient simultaneous optimization of a large number of model parameters is demonstrated and a good agreement with the experimental data is obtained.

Relativistic Newtonian Dynamics under a central force

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, Yaakov

2016-10-01

Planck's formula and General Relativity indicate that potential energy influences spacetime. Using Einstein's Equivalence Principle and an extension of his Clock Hypothesis, an explicit description of this influence is derived. We present a new relativity model by incorporating the influence of the potential energy on spacetime in Newton's dynamics for motion under a central force. This model extends the model used by Friedman and Steiner (EPL, 113 (2016) 39001) to obtain the exact precession of Mercury without curving spacetime. We also present a solution of this model for a hydrogen-like atom, which explains the reason for a probabilistic description.

Risk management at the stage of design of high-rise construction facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Politi, Violetta

2018-03-01

This paper describes the assessment of the probabilistic risk of an accident formed in the process of designing a technically complex facility. It considers values of conditional probabilities of the compliance of load-bearing structures with safety requirements, provides an approximate list of significant errors of the designer and analyzes the relationship between the degree of compliance and the level of danger of errors. It describes and proposes for implementation the regulated procedures related to the assessment of the safety level of constructive solutions and the reliability of the construction process participants.

Fully probabilistic earthquake source inversion on teleseismic scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stähler, Simon; Sigloch, Karin

2017-04-01

Seismic source inversion is a non-linear problem in seismology where not just the earthquake parameters but also estimates of their uncertainties are of great practical importance. We have developed a method of fully Bayesian inference for source parameters, based on measurements of waveform cross-correlation between broadband, teleseismic body-wave observations and their modelled counterparts. This approach yields not only depth and moment tensor estimates but also source time functions. These unknowns are parameterised efficiently by harnessing as prior knowledge solutions from a large number of non-Bayesian inversions. The source time function is expressed as a weighted sum of a small number of empirical orthogonal functions, which were derived from a catalogue of >1000 source time functions (STFs) by a principal component analysis. We use a likelihood model based on the cross-correlation misfit between observed and predicted waveforms. The resulting ensemble of solutions provides full uncertainty and covariance information for the source parameters, and permits propagating these source uncertainties into travel time estimates used for seismic tomography. The computational effort is such that routine, global estimation of earthquake mechanisms and source time functions from teleseismic broadband waveforms is feasible. A prerequisite for Bayesian inference is the proper characterisation of the noise afflicting the measurements. We show that, for realistic broadband body-wave seismograms, the systematic error due to an incomplete physical model affects waveform misfits more strongly than random, ambient background noise. In this situation, the waveform cross-correlation coefficient CC, or rather its decorrelation D = 1 - CC, performs more robustly as a misfit criterion than ℓp norms, more commonly used as sample-by-sample measures of misfit based on distances between individual time samples. From a set of over 900 user-supervised, deterministic earthquake source solutions treated as a quality-controlled reference, we derive the noise distribution on signal decorrelation D of the broadband seismogram fits between observed and modelled waveforms. The noise on D is found to approximately follow a log-normal distribution, a fortunate fact that readily accommodates the formulation of an empirical likelihood function for D for our multivariate problem. The first and second moments of this multivariate distribution are shown to depend mostly on the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the CC measurements and on the back-azimuthal distances of seismic stations. References: Stähler, S. C. and Sigloch, K.: Fully probabilistic seismic source inversion - Part 1: Efficient parameterisation, Solid Earth, 5, 1055-1069, doi:10.5194/se-5-1055-2014, 2014. Stähler, S. C. and Sigloch, K.: Fully probabilistic seismic source inversion - Part 2: Modelling errors and station covariances, Solid Earth, 7, 1521-1536, doi:10.5194/se-7-1521-2016, 2016.

Adsorption mechanism in RPLC. Effect of the nature of the organic modifier

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gritti, Fabrice; Guiochon, Georges A

2005-07-01

The adsorption isotherms of phenol and caffeine were acquired by frontal analysis on two different adsorbents, Kromasil-C{sub 18} and Discovery-C{sub 18}, with two different mobile phases, aqueous solutions of methanol (MeOH/H{sub 2}O = 40/60 and 30/70, v/v) and aqueous solutions of acetonitrile (MeCN/H{sub 2}O = 30/70 and 20/80, v/v). The adsorption isotherms are always strictly convex upward in methanol/water solutions. The calculations of the adsorption energy distribution confirm that the adsorption data for phenol are best modeled with the bi-Langmuir and the tri-Langmuir isotherm models for Kromasil-C{sub 18} and Discovery-C{sub 18}, respectively. Because its molecule is larger and excluded frommore » the deepest sites buried in the bonded layer, the adsorption data of caffeine follow bi-Langmuir isotherm model behavior on both adsorbents. In contrast, with acetonitrile/water solutions, the adsorption data of both phenol and caffeine deviate far less from linear behavior. They were best modeled by the sum of a Langmuir and a BET isotherm models. The Langmuir term represents the adsorption of the analyte on the high-energy sites located within the C{sub 18} layers and the BET term its adsorption on the low-energy sites and its accumulation in an adsorbed multilayer system of acetonitrile on the bonded alkyl chains. The formation of a complex adsorbed phase containing up to four layers of acetonitrile (with a thickness of 3.4 {angstrom} each) was confirmed by the excess adsorption isotherm data measured for acetonitrile on Discovery-C{sub 18}. A simple interpretation of this change in the isotherm curvature at high concentrations when methanol is replaced with acetonitrile as the organic modifier is proposed, based on the structure of the interface between the C{sub 18} chains and the bulk mobile phase. This new model accounts for all the experimental observations.« less

Probabilistic data integration and computational complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, T. M.; Cordua, K. S.; Mosegaard, K.

2016-12-01

Inverse problems in Earth Sciences typically refer to the problem of inferring information about properties of the Earth from observations of geophysical data (the result of nature's solution to the `forward' problem). This problem can be formulated more generally as a problem of `integration of information'. A probabilistic formulation of data integration is in principle simple: If all information available (from e.g. geology, geophysics, remote sensing, chemistry…) can be quantified probabilistically, then different algorithms exist that allow solving the data integration problem either through an analytical description of the combined probability function, or sampling the probability function. In practice however, probabilistic based data integration may not be easy to apply successfully. This may be related to the use of sampling methods, which are known to be computationally costly. But, another source of computational complexity is related to how the individual types of information are quantified. In one case a data integration problem is demonstrated where the goal is to determine the existence of buried channels in Denmark, based on multiple sources of geo-information. Due to one type of information being too informative (and hence conflicting), this leads to a difficult sampling problems with unrealistic uncertainty. Resolving this conflict prior to data integration, leads to an easy data integration problem, with no biases. In another case it is demonstrated how imperfections in the description of the geophysical forward model (related to solving the wave-equation) can lead to a difficult data integration problem, with severe bias in the results. If the modeling error is accounted for, the data integration problems becomes relatively easy, with no apparent biases. Both examples demonstrate that biased information can have a dramatic effect on the computational efficiency solving a data integration problem and lead to biased results, and under-estimation of uncertainty. However, in both examples, one can also analyze the performance of the sampling methods used to solve the data integration problem to indicate the existence of biased information. This can be used actively to avoid biases in the available information and subsequently in the final uncertainty evaluation.

Building Format-Agnostic Metadata Repositories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cechini, M.; Pilone, D.

2010-12-01

This presentation will discuss the problems that surround persisting and discovering metadata in multiple formats; a set of tenets that must be addressed in a solution; and NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) ClearingHOuse’s (ECHO) proposed approach. In order to facilitate cross-discipline data analysis, Earth Scientists will potentially interact with more than one data source. The most common data discovery paradigm relies on services and/or applications facilitating the discovery and presentation of metadata. What may not be common are the formats in which the metadata are formatted. As the number of sources and datasets utilized for research increases, it becomes more likely that a researcher will encounter conflicting metadata formats. Metadata repositories, such as the EOS ClearingHOuse (ECHO), along with data centers, must identify ways to address this issue. In order to define the solution to this problem, the following tenets are identified: - There exists a set of ‘core’ metadata fields recommended for data discovery. - There exists a set of users who will require the entire metadata record for advanced analysis. - There exists a set of users who will require a ‘core’ set of metadata fields for discovery only. - There will never be a cessation of new formats or a total retirement of all old formats. - Users should be presented metadata in a consistent format. ECHO has undertaken an effort to transform its metadata ingest and discovery services in order to support the growing set of metadata formats. In order to address the previously listed items, ECHO’s new metadata processing paradigm utilizes the following approach: - Identify a cross-format set of ‘core’ metadata fields necessary for discovery. - Implement format-specific indexers to extract the ‘core’ metadata fields into an optimized query capability. - Archive the original metadata in its entirety for presentation to users requiring the full record. - Provide on-demand translation of ‘core’ metadata to any supported result format. With this identified approach, the Earth Scientist is provided with a consistent data representation as they interact with a variety of datasets that utilize multiple metadata formats. They are then able to focus their efforts on the more critical research activities which they are undertaking.

Big Bang Day: Engineering Solutions

ScienceCinema

None

2017-12-09

CERN's Large Hadron Collider is the most complicated scientific apparatus ever built. Many of the technologies it uses hadn't even been invented when scientists started building it. Adam Hart-Davis discovers what it takes to build the world's most intricate discovery machine.

Lévy flight artificial bee colony algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Harish; Bansal, Jagdish Chand; Arya, K. V.; Yang, Xin-She

2016-08-01

Artificial bee colony (ABC) optimisation algorithm is a relatively simple and recent population-based probabilistic approach for global optimisation. The solution search equation of ABC is significantly influenced by a random quantity which helps in exploration at the cost of exploitation of the search space. In the ABC, there is a high chance to skip the true solution due to its large step sizes. In order to balance between diversity and convergence in the ABC, a Lévy flight inspired search strategy is proposed and integrated with ABC. The proposed strategy is named as Lévy Flight ABC (LFABC) has both the local and global search capability simultaneously and can be achieved by tuning the Lévy flight parameters and thus automatically tuning the step sizes. In the LFABC, new solutions are generated around the best solution and it helps to enhance the exploitation capability of ABC. Furthermore, to improve the exploration capability, the numbers of scout bees are increased. The experiments on 20 test problems of different complexities and five real-world engineering optimisation problems show that the proposed strategy outperforms the basic ABC and recent variants of ABC, namely, Gbest-guided ABC, best-so-far ABC and modified ABC in most of the experiments.

Learning Sparse Feature Representations using Probabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-24

Feature Representations usingProbabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets Learning sparse feature representations is a useful instru- ment for solving an...novel framework for the classifi cation of handwritten digits that learns sparse representations using probabilistic quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets... Learning Sparse Feature Representations usingProbabilistic Quadtrees and Deep Belief Nets Report Title Learning sparse feature representations is a useful

Efficacy of bait supplements for improving the rate of discovery of bait stations in the field by formosan subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae).

PubMed

Cornelius, Mary L; Lyn, Margaret; Williams, Kelley S; Lovisa, Mary P; De Lucca, Anthony J; Lax, Alan R

2009-06-01

Field tests of four different bait supplements were conducted in City Park, New Orleans, LA. The four bait supplements tested included two different formulations of decayed material, a sports drink, and the combination of an application of an aqueous solution of Summon Preferred Food Source disks with the disk itself. Although all the bait supplements in this study resulted in a slightly greater number of treated stations discovered compared with control stations, only the application of the aqueous solution combined with the disk caused a significant increase in the number of stations discovered by termites. This treatment resulted in a significantly greater rate of discovery of treated stations versus control stations after only 14 d in the field. Termites were able to discover six times as many treated as control stations after 14 d, 9 times as many after 28 d, and 12 times as many after 42 d. These findings provide evidence that the diffusion of an aqueous solution into the soil underneath monitoring stations significantly decreased the length of time required for termites to infest stations.

Bias Characterization in Probabilistic Genotype Data and Improved Signal Detection with Multiple Imputation

PubMed Central

Palmer, Cameron; Pe’er, Itsik

2016-01-01

Missing data are an unavoidable component of modern statistical genetics. Different array or sequencing technologies cover different single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), leading to a complicated mosaic pattern of missingness where both individual genotypes and entire SNPs are sporadically absent. Such missing data patterns cannot be ignored without introducing bias, yet cannot be inferred exclusively from nonmissing data. In genome-wide association studies, the accepted solution to missingness is to impute missing data using external reference haplotypes. The resulting probabilistic genotypes may be analyzed in the place of genotype calls. A general-purpose paradigm, called Multiple Imputation (MI), is known to model uncertainty in many contexts, yet it is not widely used in association studies. Here, we undertake a systematic evaluation of existing imputed data analysis methods and MI. We characterize biases related to uncertainty in association studies, and find that bias is introduced both at the imputation level, when imputation algorithms generate inconsistent genotype probabilities, and at the association level, when analysis methods inadequately model genotype uncertainty. We find that MI performs at least as well as existing methods or in some cases much better, and provides a straightforward paradigm for adapting existing genotype association methods to uncertain data. PMID:27310603

Probabilistic analysis for identifying the driving force of protein folding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokunaga, Yoshihiko; Yamamori, Yu; Matubayasi, Nobuyuki

2018-03-01

Toward identifying the driving force of protein folding, energetics was analyzed in water for Trp-cage (20 residues), protein G (56 residues), and ubiquitin (76 residues) at their native (folded) and heat-denatured (unfolded) states. All-atom molecular dynamics simulation was conducted, and the hydration effect was quantified by the solvation free energy. The free-energy calculation was done by employing the solution theory in the energy representation, and it was seen that the sum of the protein intramolecular (structural) energy and the solvation free energy is more favorable for a folded structure than for an unfolded one generated by heat. Probabilistic arguments were then developed to determine which of the electrostatic, van der Waals, and excluded-volume components of the interactions in the protein-water system governs the relative stabilities between the folded and unfolded structures. It was found that the electrostatic interaction does not correspond to the preference order of the two structures. The van der Waals and excluded-volume components were shown, on the other hand, to provide the right order of preference at probabilities of almost unity, and it is argued that a useful modeling of protein folding is possible on the basis of the excluded-volume effect.

Location error uncertainties - an advanced using of probabilistic inverse theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Debski, Wojciech

2016-04-01

The spatial location of sources of seismic waves is one of the first tasks when transient waves from natural (uncontrolled) sources are analyzed in many branches of physics, including seismology, oceanology, to name a few. Source activity and its spatial variability in time, the geometry of recording network, the complexity and heterogeneity of wave velocity distribution are all factors influencing the performance of location algorithms and accuracy of the achieved results. While estimating of the earthquake foci location is relatively simple a quantitative estimation of the location accuracy is really a challenging task even if the probabilistic inverse method is used because it requires knowledge of statistics of observational, modelling, and apriori uncertainties. In this presentation we addressed this task when statistics of observational and/or modeling errors are unknown. This common situation requires introduction of apriori constraints on the likelihood (misfit) function which significantly influence the estimated errors. Based on the results of an analysis of 120 seismic events from the Rudna copper mine operating in southwestern Poland we illustrate an approach based on an analysis of Shanon's entropy calculated for the aposteriori distribution. We show that this meta-characteristic of the aposteriori distribution carries some information on uncertainties of the solution found.

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limitedmore » in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.« less

Applying Semantic-based Probabilistic Context-Free Grammar to Medical Language Processing – A Preliminary Study on Parsing Medication Sentences

PubMed Central

Xu, Hua; AbdelRahman, Samir; Lu, Yanxin; Denny, Joshua C.; Doan, Son

2011-01-01

Semantic-based sublanguage grammars have been shown to be an efficient method for medical language processing. However, given the complexity of the medical domain, parsers using such grammars inevitably encounter ambiguous sentences, which could be interpreted by different groups of production rules and consequently result in two or more parse trees. One possible solution, which has not been extensively explored previously, is to augment productions in medical sublanguage grammars with probabilities to resolve the ambiguity. In this study, we associated probabilities with production rules in a semantic-based grammar for medication findings and evaluated its performance on reducing parsing ambiguity. Using the existing data set from 2009 i2b2 NLP (Natural Language Processing) challenge for medication extraction, we developed a semantic-based CFG (Context Free Grammar) for parsing medication sentences and manually created a Treebank of 4,564 medication sentences from discharge summaries. Using the Treebank, we derived a semantic-based PCFG (probabilistic Context Free Grammar) for parsing medication sentences. Our evaluation using a 10-fold cross validation showed that the PCFG parser dramatically improved parsing performance when compared to the CFG parser. PMID:21856440

Real-time adaptive aircraft scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolitz, Stephan E.; Terrab, Mostafa

1990-01-01

One of the most important functions of any air traffic management system is the assignment of ground-holding times to flights, i.e., the determination of whether and by how much the take-off of a particular aircraft headed for a congested part of the air traffic control (ATC) system should be postponed in order to reduce the likelihood and extent of airborne delays. An analysis is presented for the fundamental case in which flights from many destinations must be scheduled for arrival at a single congested airport; the formulation is also useful in scheduling the landing of airborne flights within the extended terminal area. A set of approaches is described for addressing a deterministic and a probabilistic version of this problem. For the deterministic case, where airport capacities are known and fixed, several models were developed with associated low-order polynomial-time algorithms. For general delay cost functions, these algorithms find an optimal solution. Under a particular natural assumption regarding the delay cost function, an extremely fast (O(n ln n)) algorithm was developed. For the probabilistic case, using an estimated probability distribution of airport capacities, a model was developed with an associated low-order polynomial-time heuristic algorithm with useful properties.

Sensitivity Analysis for Probabilistic Neural Network Structure Reduction.

PubMed

Kowalski, Piotr A; Kusy, Maciej

2018-05-01

In this paper, we propose the use of local sensitivity analysis (LSA) for the structure simplification of the probabilistic neural network (PNN). Three algorithms are introduced. The first algorithm applies LSA to the PNN input layer reduction by selecting significant features of input patterns. The second algorithm utilizes LSA to remove redundant pattern neurons of the network. The third algorithm combines the proposed two and constitutes the solution of how they can work together. PNN with a product kernel estimator is used, where each multiplicand computes a one-dimensional Cauchy function. Therefore, the smoothing parameter is separately calculated for each dimension by means of the plug-in method. The classification qualities of the reduced and full structure PNN are compared. Furthermore, we evaluate the performance of PNN, for which global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and the common reduction methods are applied, both in the input layer and the pattern layer. The models are tested on the classification problems of eight repository data sets. A 10-fold cross validation procedure is used to determine the prediction ability of the networks. Based on the obtained results, it is shown that the LSA can be used as an alternative PNN reduction approach.

A Multipopulation PSO Based Memetic Algorithm for Permutation Flow Shop Scheduling

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruochen; Ma, Chenlin; Ma, Wenping; Li, Yangyang

2013-01-01

The permutation flow shop scheduling problem (PFSSP) is part of production scheduling, which belongs to the hardest combinatorial optimization problem. In this paper, a multipopulation particle swarm optimization (PSO) based memetic algorithm (MPSOMA) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed algorithm, the whole particle swarm population is divided into three subpopulations in which each particle evolves itself by the standard PSO and then updates each subpopulation by using different local search schemes such as variable neighborhood search (VNS) and individual improvement scheme (IIS). Then, the best particle of each subpopulation is selected to construct a probabilistic model by using estimation of distribution algorithm (EDA) and three particles are sampled from the probabilistic model to update the worst individual in each subpopulation. The best particle in the entire particle swarm is used to update the global optimal solution. The proposed MPSOMA is compared with two recently proposed algorithms, namely, PSO based memetic algorithm (PSOMA) and hybrid particle swarm optimization with estimation of distribution algorithm (PSOEDA), on 29 well-known PFFSPs taken from OR-library, and the experimental results show that it is an effective approach for the PFFSP. PMID:24453841

Development of coordination system model on single-supplier multi-buyer for multi-item supply chain with probabilistic demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivia, G.; Santoso, A.; Prayogo, D. N.

2017-11-01

Nowadays, the level of competition between supply chains is getting tighter and a good coordination system between supply chains members is very crucial in solving the issue. This paper focused on a model development of coordination system between single supplier and buyers in a supply chain as a solution. Proposed optimization model was designed to determine the optimal number of deliveries from a supplier to buyers in order to minimize the total cost over a planning horizon. Components of the total supply chain cost consist of transportation costs, handling costs of supplier and buyers and also stock out costs. In the proposed optimization model, the supplier can supply various types of items to retailers whose item demand patterns are probabilistic. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model was conducted to test the effect of changes in transport costs, handling costs and production capacities of the supplier. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed a significant influence on the changes in the transportation cost, handling costs and production capacity to the decisions of the optimal numbers of product delivery for each item to the buyers.

A Comparative Theoretical and Computational Study on Robust Counterpart Optimization: II. Probabilistic Guarantees on Constraint Satisfaction

PubMed Central

Li, Zukui; Floudas, Christodoulos A.

2012-01-01

Probabilistic guarantees on constraint satisfaction for robust counterpart optimization are studied in this paper. The robust counterpart optimization formulations studied are derived from box, ellipsoidal, polyhedral, “interval+ellipsoidal” and “interval+polyhedral” uncertainty sets (Li, Z., Ding, R., and Floudas, C.A., A Comparative Theoretical and Computational Study on Robust Counterpart Optimization: I. Robust Linear and Robust Mixed Integer Linear Optimization, Ind. Eng. Chem. Res, 2011, 50, 10567). For those robust counterpart optimization formulations, their corresponding probability bounds on constraint satisfaction are derived for different types of uncertainty characteristic (i.e., bounded or unbounded uncertainty, with or without detailed probability distribution information). The findings of this work extend the results in the literature and provide greater flexibility for robust optimization practitioners in choosing tighter probability bounds so as to find less conservative robust solutions. Extensive numerical studies are performed to compare the tightness of the different probability bounds and the conservatism of different robust counterpart optimization formulations. Guiding rules for the selection of robust counterpart optimization models and for the determination of the size of the uncertainty set are discussed. Applications in production planning and process scheduling problems are presented. PMID:23329868

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for Select Space Propulsion System Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) are described for the probabilistic structural analysis of engine components for current and future space propulsion systems. Components for these systems are subjected to stochastic thermomechanical launch loads. Uncertainties or randomness also occurs in material properties, structural geometry, and boundary conditions. Material property stochasticity, such as in modulus of elasticity or yield strength, exists in every structure and is a consequence of variations in material composition and manufacturing processes. Procedures are outlined for computing the probabilistic structural response or reliability of the structural components. The response variables include static or dynamic deflections, strains, and stresses at one or several locations, natural frequencies, fatigue or creep life, etc. Sample cases illustrates how the PSAM methods and codes simulate input uncertainties and compute probabilistic response or reliability using a finite element model with probabilistic methods.

Processing of probabilistic information in weight perception and motor prediction.

PubMed

Trampenau, Leif; van Eimeren, Thilo; Kuhtz-Buschbeck, Johann

2017-02-01

We studied the effects of probabilistic cues, i.e., of information of limited certainty, in the context of an action task (GL: grip-lift) and of a perceptual task (WP: weight perception). Normal subjects (n = 22) saw four different probabilistic visual cues, each of which announced the likely weight of an object. In the GL task, the object was grasped and lifted with a pinch grip, and the peak force rates indicated that the grip and load forces were scaled predictively according to the probabilistic information. The WP task provided the expected heaviness related to each probabilistic cue; the participants gradually adjusted the object's weight until its heaviness matched the expected weight for a given cue. Subjects were randomly assigned to two groups: one started with the GL task and the other one with the WP task. The four different probabilistic cues influenced weight adjustments in the WP task and peak force rates in the GL task in a similar manner. The interpretation and utilization of the probabilistic information was critically influenced by the initial task. Participants who started with the WP task classified the four probabilistic cues into four distinct categories and applied these categories to the subsequent GL task. On the other side, participants who started with the GL task applied three distinct categories to the four cues and retained this classification in the following WP task. The initial strategy, once established, determined the way how the probabilistic information was interpreted and implemented.

Relative risk of probabilistic category learning deficits in patients with schizophrenia and their siblings

PubMed Central

Weickert, Thomas W.; Goldberg, Terry E.; Egan, Michael F.; Apud, Jose A.; Meeter, Martijn; Myers, Catherine E.; Gluck, Mark A; Weinberger, Daniel R.

2010-01-01

Background While patients with schizophrenia display an overall probabilistic category learning performance deficit, the extent to which this deficit occurs in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia is unknown. There are also discrepant findings regarding probabilistic category learning acquisition rate and performance in patients with schizophrenia. Methods A probabilistic category learning test was administered to 108 patients with schizophrenia, 82 unaffected siblings, and 121 healthy participants. Results Patients with schizophrenia displayed significant differences from their unaffected siblings and healthy participants with respect to probabilistic category learning acquisition rates. Although siblings on the whole failed to differ from healthy participants on strategy and quantitative indices of overall performance and learning acquisition, application of a revised learning criterion enabling classification into good and poor learners based on individual learning curves revealed significant differences between percentages of sibling and healthy poor learners: healthy (13.2%), siblings (34.1%), patients (48.1%), yielding a moderate relative risk. Conclusions These results clarify previous discrepant findings pertaining to probabilistic category learning acquisition rate in schizophrenia and provide the first evidence for the relative risk of probabilistic category learning abnormalities in unaffected siblings of patients with schizophrenia, supporting genetic underpinnings of probabilistic category learning deficits in schizophrenia. These findings also raise questions regarding the contribution of antipsychotic medication to the probabilistic category learning deficit in schizophrenia. The distinction between good and poor learning may be used to inform genetic studies designed to detect schizophrenia risk alleles. PMID:20172502

Probabilistic finite elements for fracture mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Besterfield, Glen

1988-01-01

The probabilistic finite element method (PFEM) is developed for probabilistic fracture mechanics (PFM). A finite element which has the near crack-tip singular strain embedded in the element is used. Probabilistic distributions, such as expectation, covariance and correlation stress intensity factors, are calculated for random load, random material and random crack length. The method is computationally quite efficient and can be expected to determine the probability of fracture or reliability.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) for select space propulsion systems components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Summarized here is the technical effort and computer code developed during the five year duration of the program for probabilistic structural analysis methods. The summary includes a brief description of the computer code manuals and a detailed description of code validation demonstration cases for random vibrations of a discharge duct, probabilistic material nonlinearities of a liquid oxygen post, and probabilistic buckling of a transfer tube liner.

A Hough Transform Global Probabilistic Approach to Multiple-Subject Diffusion MRI Tractography

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT A global probabilistic fiber tracking approach based on the voting process provided by...umn.edu 2 ABSTRACT A global probabilistic fiber tracking approach based on the voting process provided by the Hough transform is introduced in...criteria for aligning curves and particularly tracts. In this work, we present a global probabilistic approach inspired by the voting procedure provided

Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromek, Katherine Emily

A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

Recognition of handwritten similar Chinese characters by self-growing probabilistic decision-based neural network.

PubMed

Fu, H C; Xu, Y Y; Chang, H Y

1999-12-01

Recognition of similar (confusion) characters is a difficult problem in optical character recognition (OCR). In this paper, we introduce a neural network solution that is capable of modeling minor differences among similar characters, and is robust to various personal handwriting styles. The Self-growing Probabilistic Decision-based Neural Network (SPDNN) is a probabilistic type neural network, which adopts a hierarchical network structure with nonlinear basis functions and a competitive credit-assignment scheme. Based on the SPDNN model, we have constructed a three-stage recognition system. First, a coarse classifier determines a character to be input to one of the pre-defined subclasses partitioned from a large character set, such as Chinese mixed with alphanumerics. Then a character recognizer determines the input image which best matches the reference character in the subclass. Lastly, the third module is a similar character recognizer, which can further enhance the recognition accuracy among similar or confusing characters. The prototype system has demonstrated a successful application of SPDNN to similar handwritten Chinese recognition for the public database CCL/HCCR1 (5401 characters x200 samples). Regarding performance, experiments on the CCL/HCCR1 database produced 90.12% recognition accuracy with no rejection, and 94.11% accuracy with 6.7% rejection, respectively. This recognition accuracy represents about 4% improvement on the previously announced performance. As to processing speed, processing before recognition (including image preprocessing, segmentation, and feature extraction) requires about one second for an A4 size character image, and recognition consumes approximately 0.27 second per character on a Pentium-100 based personal computer, without use of any hardware accelerator or co-processor.

Discrete Element Method Modeling of Bedload Transport: Towards a physics-based link between bed surface variability and particle entrainment statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghasemi, A.; Borhani, S.; Viparelli, E.; Hill, K. M.

2017-12-01

The Exner equation provides a formal mathematical link between sediment transport and bed morphology. It is typically represented in a discrete formulation where there is a sharp geometric interface between the bedload layer and the bed, below which no particles are entrained. For high temporally and spatially resolved models, this is strictly correct, but typically this is applied in such a way that spatial and temporal fluctuations in the bed surface (bedforms and otherwise) are not captured. This limits the extent to which the exchange between particles in transport and the sediment bed are properly represented, particularly problematic for mixed grain size distributions that exhibit segregation. Nearly two decades ago, Parker (2000) provided a framework for a solution to this dilemma in the form of a probabilistic Exner equation, partially experimentally validated by Wong et al. (2007). We present a computational study designed to develop a physics-based framework for understanding the interplay between physical parameters of the bed and flow and parameters in the Parker (2000) probabilistic formulation. To do so we use Discrete Element Method simulations to relate local time-varying parameters to long-term macroscopic parameters. These include relating local grain size distribution and particle entrainment and deposition rates to long- average bed shear stress and the standard deviation of bed height variations. While relatively simple, these simulations reproduce long-accepted empirically determined transport behaviors such as the Meyer-Peter and Muller (1948) relationship. We also find that these simulations reproduce statistical relationships proposed by Wong et al. (2007) such as a Gaussian distribution of bed heights whose standard deviation increases with increasing bed shear stress. We demonstrate how the ensuing probabilistic formulations provide insight into the transport and deposition of both narrow and wide grain size distribution.

A Bayesian Framework for Analysis of Pseudo-Spatial Models of Comparable Engineered Systems with Application to Spacecraft Anomaly Prediction Based on Precedent Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndu, Obibobi Kamtochukwu

To ensure that estimates of risk and reliability inform design and resource allocation decisions in the development of complex engineering systems, early engagement in the design life cycle is necessary. An unfortunate constraint on the accuracy of such estimates at this stage of concept development is the limited amount of high fidelity design and failure information available on the actual system under development. Applying the human ability to learn from experience and augment our state of knowledge to evolve better solutions mitigates this limitation. However, the challenge lies in formalizing a methodology that takes this highly abstract, but fundamentally human cognitive, ability and extending it to the field of risk analysis while maintaining the tenets of generalization, Bayesian inference, and probabilistic risk analysis. We introduce an integrated framework for inferring the reliability, or other probabilistic measures of interest, of a new system or a conceptual variant of an existing system. Abstractly, our framework is based on learning from the performance of precedent designs and then applying the acquired knowledge, appropriately adjusted based on degree of relevance, to the inference process. This dissertation presents a method for inferring properties of the conceptual variant using a pseudo-spatial model that describes the spatial configuration of the family of systems to which the concept belongs. Through non-metric multidimensional scaling, we formulate the pseudo-spatial model based on rank-ordered subjective expert perception of design similarity between systems that elucidate the psychological space of the family. By a novel extension of Kriging methods for analysis of geospatial data to our "pseudo-space of comparable engineered systems", we develop a Bayesian inference model that allows prediction of the probabilistic measure of interest.

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, J. L.; Neely, M. A.; Curran, F. M.; Christensen, E. R.; Escher, D.; Lovell, N.; Morris, Charles (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Testing Transitivity of Preferences on Two-Alternative Forced Choice Data

PubMed Central

Regenwetter, Michel; Dana, Jason; Davis-Stober, Clintin P.

2010-01-01

As Duncan Luce and other prominent scholars have pointed out on several occasions, testing algebraic models against empirical data raises difficult conceptual, mathematical, and statistical challenges. Empirical data often result from statistical sampling processes, whereas algebraic theories are nonprobabilistic. Many probabilistic specifications lead to statistical boundary problems and are subject to nontrivial order constrained statistical inference. The present paper discusses Luce's challenge for a particularly prominent axiom: Transitivity. The axiom of transitivity is a central component in many algebraic theories of preference and choice. We offer the currently most complete solution to the challenge in the case of transitivity of binary preference on the theory side and two-alternative forced choice on the empirical side, explicitly for up to five, and implicitly for up to seven, choice alternatives. We also discuss the relationship between our proposed solution and weak stochastic transitivity. We recommend to abandon the latter as a model of transitive individual preferences. PMID:21833217

Bayesian tomography and integrated data analysis in fusion diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Dong, E-mail: lid@swip.ac.cn; Dong, Y. B.; Deng, Wei

2016-11-15

In this article, a Bayesian tomography method using non-stationary Gaussian process for a prior has been introduced. The Bayesian formalism allows quantities which bear uncertainty to be expressed in the probabilistic form so that the uncertainty of a final solution can be fully resolved from the confidence interval of a posterior probability. Moreover, a consistency check of that solution can be performed by checking whether the misfits between predicted and measured data are reasonably within an assumed data error. In particular, the accuracy of reconstructions is significantly improved by using the non-stationary Gaussian process that can adapt to the varyingmore » smoothness of emission distribution. The implementation of this method to a soft X-ray diagnostics on HL-2A has been used to explore relevant physics in equilibrium and MHD instability modes. This project is carried out within a large size inference framework, aiming at an integrated analysis of heterogeneous diagnostics.« less

Discovery of a highly potent series of TLR7 agonists.

PubMed

Jones, Peter; Pryde, David C; Tran, Thien-Duc; Adam, Fiona M; Bish, Gerwyn; Calo, Frederick; Ciaramella, Guiseppe; Dixon, Rachel; Duckworth, Jonathan; Fox, David N A; Hay, Duncan A; Hitchin, James; Horscroft, Nigel; Howard, Martin; Laxton, Carl; Parkinson, Tanya; Parsons, Gemma; Proctor, Katie; Smith, Mya C; Smith, Nicholas; Thomas, Amy

2011-10-01

The discovery of a series of highly potent and novel TLR7 agonist interferon inducers is described. Structure-activity relationships are presented, along with pharmacokinetic studies of a lead molecule from this series of N9-pyridylmethyl-8-oxo-3-deazapurine analogues. A rationale for the very high potency observed is offered. An investigation of the clearance mechanism of this class of compounds in rat was carried out, resulting in aldehyde oxidase mediated oxidation being identified as a key component of the high clearance observed. A possible solution to this problem is discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accelerating Drug Development: Antiviral Therapies for Emerging Viruses as a Model.

PubMed

Everts, Maaike; Cihlar, Tomas; Bostwick, J Robert; Whitley, Richard J

2017-01-06

Drug discovery and development is a lengthy and expensive process. Although no one, simple, single solution can significantly accelerate this process, steps can be taken to avoid unnecessary delays. Using the development of antiviral therapies as a model, we describe options for acceleration that cover target selection, assay development and high-throughput screening, hit confirmation, lead identification and development, animal model evaluations, toxicity studies, regulatory issues, and the general drug discovery and development infrastructure. Together, these steps could result in accelerated timelines for bringing antiviral therapies to market so they can treat emerging infections and reduce human suffering.

Software Infrastructure for Computer-aided Drug Discovery and Development, a Practical Example with Guidelines.

PubMed

Moretti, Loris; Sartori, Luca

2016-09-01

In the field of Computer-Aided Drug Discovery and Development (CADDD) the proper software infrastructure is essential for everyday investigations. The creation of such an environment should be carefully planned and implemented with certain features in order to be productive and efficient. Here we describe a solution to integrate standard computational services into a functional unit that empowers modelling applications for drug discovery. This system allows users with various level of expertise to run in silico experiments automatically and without the burden of file formatting for different software, managing the actual computation, keeping track of the activities and graphical rendering of the structural outcomes. To showcase the potential of this approach, performances of five different docking programs on an Hiv-1 protease test set are presented. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Exact solutions for the source-excited cylindrical electromagnetic waves in a nonlinear nondispersive medium.

PubMed

Es'kin, V A; Kudrin, A V; Petrov, E Yu

2011-06-01

The behavior of electromagnetic fields in nonlinear media has been a topical problem since the discovery of materials with a nonlinearity of electromagnetic properties. The problem of finding exact solutions for the source-excited nonlinear waves in curvilinear coordinates has been regarded as unsolvable for a long time. In this work, we present the first solution of this type for a cylindrically symmetric field excited by a pulsed current filament in a nondispersive medium that is simultaneously inhomogeneous and nonlinear. Assuming that the medium has a power-law permittivity profile in the linear regime and lacks a center of inversion, we derive an exact solution for the electromagnetic field excited by a current filament in such a medium and discuss the properties of this solution.

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Hopkins, D. A.

1989-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. Recent activities have focused on extending the methods to include the combined uncertainties in several factors on structural response. This paper briefly describes recent progress on composite load spectra models, probabilistic finite element structural analysis, and probabilistic strength degradation modeling. Progress is described in terms of fundamental concepts, computer code development, and representative numerical results.

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Nagpal, Vinod K.; Chamis, Christos C.

1988-01-01

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Probabilistic record linkage

PubMed Central

Sayers, Adrian; Ben-Shlomo, Yoav; Blom, Ashley W; Steele, Fiona

2016-01-01

Abstract Studies involving the use of probabilistic record linkage are becoming increasingly common. However, the methods underpinning probabilistic record linkage are not widely taught or understood, and therefore these studies can appear to be a ‘black box’ research tool. In this article, we aim to describe the process of probabilistic record linkage through a simple exemplar. We first introduce the concept of deterministic linkage and contrast this with probabilistic linkage. We illustrate each step of the process using a simple exemplar and describe the data structure required to perform a probabilistic linkage. We describe the process of calculating and interpreting matched weights and how to convert matched weights into posterior probabilities of a match using Bayes theorem. We conclude this article with a brief discussion of some of the computational demands of record linkage, how you might assess the quality of your linkage algorithm, and how epidemiologists can maximize the value of their record-linked research using robust record linkage methods. PMID:26686842

Hypothesis Testing as an Act of Rationality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, Grey

2017-04-01

Statistical hypothesis testing is ad hoc in two ways. First, setting probabilistic rejection criteria is, as Neyman (1957) put it, an act of will rather than an act of rationality. Second, physical theories like conservation laws do not inherently admit probabilistic predictions, and so we must use what are called epistemic bridge principles to connect model predictions with the actual methods of hypothesis testing. In practice, these bridge principles are likelihood functions, error functions, or performance metrics. I propose that the reason we are faced with these problems is because we have historically failed to account for a fundamental component of basic logic - namely the portion of logic that explains how epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data. This component of Cox' (1946) calculitic logic is called information theory (Knuth, 2005), and adding information theory our hypothetico-deductive account of science yields straightforward solutions to both of the above problems. This also yields a straightforward method for dealing with Popper's (1963) problem of verisimilitude by facilitating a quantitative approach to measuring process isomorphism. In practice, this involves data assimilation. Finally, information theory allows us to reliably bound measures of epistemic uncertainty, thereby avoiding the problem of Bayesian incoherency under misspecified priors (Grünwald, 2006). I therefore propose solutions to four of the fundamental problems inherent in both hypothetico-deductive and/or Bayesian hypothesis testing. - Neyman (1957) Inductive Behavior as a Basic Concept of Philosophy of Science. - Cox (1946) Probability, Frequency and Reasonable Expectation. - Knuth (2005) Lattice Duality: The Origin of Probability and Entropy. - Grünwald (2006). Bayesian Inconsistency under Misspecification. - Popper (1963) Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge.

Probabilistic inversion of AVO seismic data for reservoir properties and related uncertainty estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zunino, Andrea; Mosegaard, Klaus

2017-04-01

Sought-after reservoir properties of interest are linked only indirectly to the observable geophysical data which are recorded at the earth's surface. In this framework, seismic data represent one of the most reliable tool to study the structure and properties of the subsurface for natural resources. Nonetheless, seismic analysis is not an end in itself, as physical properties such as porosity are often of more interest for reservoir characterization. As such, inference of those properties implies taking into account also rock physics models linking porosity and other physical properties to elastic parameters. In the framework of seismic reflection data, we address this challenge for a reservoir target zone employing a probabilistic method characterized by a multi-step complex nonlinear forward modeling that combines: 1) a rock physics model with 2) the solution of full Zoeppritz equations and 3) a convolutional seismic forward modeling. The target property of this work is porosity, which is inferred using a Monte Carlo approach where porosity models, i.e., solutions to the inverse problem, are directly sampled from the posterior distribution. From a theoretical point of view, the Monte Carlo strategy can be particularly useful in the presence of nonlinear forward models, which is often the case when employing sophisticated rock physics models and full Zoeppritz equations and to estimate related uncertainty. However, the resulting computational challenge is huge. We propose to alleviate this computational burden by assuming some smoothness of the subsurface parameters and consequently parameterizing the model in terms of spline bases. This allows us a certain flexibility in that the number of spline bases and hence the resolution in each spatial direction can be controlled. The method is tested on a 3-D synthetic case and on a 2-D real data set.

Deriving a probabilistic syntacto-semantic grammar for biomedicine based on domain-specific terminologies

PubMed Central

Fan, Jung-Wei; Friedman, Carol

2011-01-01

Biomedical natural language processing (BioNLP) is a useful technique that unlocks valuable information stored in textual data for practice and/or research. Syntactic parsing is a critical component of BioNLP applications that rely on correctly determining the sentence and phrase structure of free text. In addition to dealing with the vast amount of domain-specific terms, a robust biomedical parser needs to model the semantic grammar to obtain viable syntactic structures. With either a rule-based or corpus-based approach, the grammar engineering process requires substantial time and knowledge from experts, and does not always yield a semantically transferable grammar. To reduce the human effort and to promote semantic transferability, we propose an automated method for deriving a probabilistic grammar based on a training corpus consisting of concept strings and semantic classes from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS), a comprehensive terminology resource widely used by the community. The grammar is designed to specify noun phrases only due to the nominal nature of the majority of biomedical terminological concepts. Evaluated on manually parsed clinical notes, the derived grammar achieved a recall of 0.644, precision of 0.737, and average cross-bracketing of 0.61, which demonstrated better performance than a control grammar with the semantic information removed. Error analysis revealed shortcomings that could be addressed to improve performance. The results indicated the feasibility of an approach which automatically incorporates terminology semantics in the building of an operational grammar. Although the current performance of the unsupervised solution does not adequately replace manual engineering, we believe once the performance issues are addressed, it could serve as an aide in a semi-supervised solution. PMID:21549857

Variable fidelity robust optimization of pulsed laser orbital debris removal under epistemic uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Liqiang; Cai, Yuanli; Liu, Jin; Hou, Chongyuan

2016-04-01

A variable fidelity robust optimization method for pulsed laser orbital debris removal (LODR) under uncertainty is proposed. Dempster-shafer theory of evidence (DST), which merges interval-based and probabilistic uncertainty modeling, is used in the robust optimization. The robust optimization method optimizes the performance while at the same time maximizing its belief value. A population based multi-objective optimization (MOO) algorithm based on a steepest descent like strategy with proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to search robust Pareto solutions. Analytical and numerical lifetime predictors are used to evaluate the debris lifetime after the laser pulses. Trust region based fidelity management is designed to reduce the computational cost caused by the expensive model. When the solutions fall into the trust region, the analytical model is used to reduce the computational cost. The proposed robust optimization method is first tested on a set of standard problems and then applied to the removal of Iridium 33 with pulsed lasers. It will be shown that the proposed approach can identify the most robust solutions with minimum lifetime under uncertainty.

Graph rigidity, cyclic belief propagation, and point pattern matching.

PubMed

McAuley, Julian J; Caetano, Tibério S; Barbosa, Marconi S

2008-11-01

A recent paper [1] proposed a provably optimal polynomial time method for performing near-isometric point pattern matching by means of exact probabilistic inference in a chordal graphical model. Its fundamental result is that the chordal graph in question is shown to be globally rigid, implying that exact inference provides the same matching solution as exact inference in a complete graphical model. This implies that the algorithm is optimal when there is no noise in the point patterns. In this paper, we present a new graph that is also globally rigid but has an advantage over the graph proposed in [1]: Its maximal clique size is smaller, rendering inference significantly more efficient. However, this graph is not chordal, and thus, standard Junction Tree algorithms cannot be directly applied. Nevertheless, we show that loopy belief propagation in such a graph converges to the optimal solution. This allows us to retain the optimality guarantee in the noiseless case, while substantially reducing both memory requirements and processing time. Our experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed solution is indistinguishable from that in [1] when there is noise in the point patterns.

Feature-based Alignment of Volumetric Multi-modal Images

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Zöllei, Lilla; Wells, William M.

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a method for aligning image volumes acquired from different imaging modalities (e.g. MR, CT) based on 3D scale-invariant image features. A novel method for encoding invariant feature geometry and appearance is developed, based on the assumption of locally linear intensity relationships, providing a solution to poor repeatability of feature detection in different image modalities. The encoding method is incorporated into a probabilistic feature-based model for multi-modal image alignment. The model parameters are estimated via a group-wise alignment algorithm, that iteratively alternates between estimating a feature-based model from feature data, then realigning feature data to the model, converging to a stable alignment solution with few pre-processing or pre-alignment requirements. The resulting model can be used to align multi-modal image data with the benefits of invariant feature correspondence: globally optimal solutions, high efficiency and low memory usage. The method is tested on the difficult RIRE data set of CT, T1, T2, PD and MP-RAGE brain images of subjects exhibiting significant inter-subject variability due to pathology. PMID:24683955

Efficient and robust model-to-image alignment using 3D scale-invariant features.

PubMed

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M

2013-04-01

This paper presents feature-based alignment (FBA), a general method for efficient and robust model-to-image alignment. Volumetric images, e.g. CT scans of the human body, are modeled probabilistically as a collage of 3D scale-invariant image features within a normalized reference space. Features are incorporated as a latent random variable and marginalized out in computing a maximum a posteriori alignment solution. The model is learned from features extracted in pre-aligned training images, then fit to features extracted from a new image to identify a globally optimal locally linear alignment solution. Novel techniques are presented for determining local feature orientation and efficiently encoding feature intensity in 3D. Experiments involving difficult magnetic resonance (MR) images of the human brain demonstrate FBA achieves alignment accuracy similar to widely-used registration methods, while requiring a fraction of the memory and computation resources and offering a more robust, globally optimal solution. Experiments on CT human body scans demonstrate FBA as an effective system for automatic human body alignment where other alignment methods break down. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

3-D model-based Bayesian classification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Soenneland, L.; Tenneboe, P.; Gehrmann, T.

1994-12-31

The challenging task of the interpreter is to integrate different pieces of information and combine them into an earth model. The sophistication level of this earth model might vary from the simplest geometrical description to the most complex set of reservoir parameters related to the geometrical description. Obviously the sophistication level also depend on the completeness of the available information. The authors describe the interpreter`s task as a mapping between the observation space and the model space. The information available to the interpreter exists in observation space and the task is to infer a model in model-space. It is well-knownmore » that this inversion problem is non-unique. Therefore any attempt to find a solution depend son constraints being added in some manner. The solution will obviously depend on which constraints are introduced and it would be desirable to allow the interpreter to modify the constraints in a problem-dependent manner. They will present a probabilistic framework that gives the interpreter the tools to integrate the different types of information and produce constrained solutions. The constraints can be adapted to the problem at hand.« less

Probabilistic approach to lysozyme crystal nucleation kinetics.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Ivaylo L; Hodzhaoglu, Feyzim V; Koleva, Dobryana P

2015-09-01

Nucleation of lysozyme crystals in quiescent solutions at a regime of progressive nucleation is investigated under an optical microscope at conditions of constant supersaturation. A method based on the stochastic nature of crystal nucleation and using discrete time sampling of small solution volumes for the presence or absence of detectable crystals is developed. It allows probabilities for crystal detection to be experimentally estimated. One hundred single samplings were used for each probability determination for 18 time intervals and six lysozyme concentrations. Fitting of a particular probability function to experimentally obtained data made possible the direct evaluation of stationary rates for lysozyme crystal nucleation, the time for growth of supernuclei to a detectable size and probability distribution of nucleation times. Obtained stationary nucleation rates were then used for the calculation of other nucleation parameters, such as the kinetic nucleation factor, nucleus size, work for nucleus formation and effective specific surface energy of the nucleus. The experimental method itself is simple and adaptable and can be used for crystal nucleation studies of arbitrary soluble substances with known solubility at particular solution conditions.

Efficient and Robust Model-to-Image Alignment using 3D Scale-Invariant Features

PubMed Central

Toews, Matthew; Wells, William M.

2013-01-01

This paper presents feature-based alignment (FBA), a general method for efficient and robust model-to-image alignment. Volumetric images, e.g. CT scans of the human body, are modeled probabilistically as a collage of 3D scale-invariant image features within a normalized reference space. Features are incorporated as a latent random variable and marginalized out in computing a maximum a-posteriori alignment solution. The model is learned from features extracted in pre-aligned training images, then fit to features extracted from a new image to identify a globally optimal locally linear alignment solution. Novel techniques are presented for determining local feature orientation and efficiently encoding feature intensity in 3D. Experiments involving difficult magnetic resonance (MR) images of the human brain demonstrate FBA achieves alignment accuracy similar to widely-used registration methods, while requiring a fraction of the memory and computation resources and offering a more robust, globally optimal solution. Experiments on CT human body scans demonstrate FBA as an effective system for automatic human body alignment where other alignment methods break down. PMID:23265799

New Perspectives on How to Discover Drugs from Herbal Medicines: CAM's Outstanding Contribution to Modern Therapeutics.

PubMed

Pan, Si-Yuan; Zhou, Shu-Feng; Gao, Si-Hua; Yu, Zhi-Ling; Zhang, Shuo-Feng; Tang, Min-Ke; Sun, Jian-Ning; Ma, Dik-Lung; Han, Yi-Fan; Fong, Wang-Fun; Ko, Kam-Ming

2013-01-01

With tens of thousands of plant species on earth, we are endowed with an enormous wealth of medicinal remedies from Mother Nature. Natural products and their derivatives represent more than 50% of all the drugs in modern therapeutics. Because of the low success rate and huge capital investment need, the research and development of conventional drugs are very costly and difficult. Over the past few decades, researchers have focused on drug discovery from herbal medicines or botanical sources, an important group of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapy. With a long history of herbal usage for the clinical management of a variety of diseases in indigenous cultures, the success rate of developing a new drug from herbal medicinal preparations should, in theory, be higher than that from chemical synthesis. While the endeavor for drug discovery from herbal medicines is "experience driven," the search for a therapeutically useful synthetic drug, like "looking for a needle in a haystack," is a daunting task. In this paper, we first illustrated various approaches of drug discovery from herbal medicines. Typical examples of successful drug discovery from botanical sources were given. In addition, problems in drug discovery from herbal medicines were described and possible solutions were proposed. The prospect of drug discovery from herbal medicines in the postgenomic era was made with the provision of future directions in this area of drug development.

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the Solid Rocket Booster Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, John S.; Peck, Jeff; Ayala, Samuel

2000-01-01

NASA has funded several major programs (the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods Project is an example) to develop probabilistic structural analysis methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element software code, known as Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress, is used to determine the reliability of a critical weld of the Space Shuttle solid rocket booster aft skirt. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process. Also, analysis findings are compared with measured Space Shuttle flight data.

Mars Exploration Rover: surface operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Erickson, J. K.; Adler, M.; Crisp, J.; Mishkin, A.; Welch, R.

2002-01-01

This paper will provide an overview of the planned mission, and also focus on the different operations challenges inherent in operating these two very off road vehicles, and the solutions adopted to enable the best utilization of their capabilities for high science return and responsiveness to scientific discovery.

Metallocenes--The First 25 Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunt, C. B.

1977-01-01

This article reviews the discovery of the first of the metallocenes and some of the developments which have taken place in the 25 years following. Applications to topics such as the solution of the polyphenylchromium problem and Alkene polymerisation, are discussed. Ferrocene is studied in detail. (MA)

DISCOUNTING OF DELAYED AND PROBABILISTIC LOSSES OVER A WIDE RANGE OF AMOUNTS

PubMed Central

Green, Leonard; Myerson, Joel; Oliveira, Luís; Chang, Seo Eun

2014-01-01

The present study examined delay and probability discounting of hypothetical monetary losses over a wide range of amounts (from $20 to $500,000) in order to determine how amount affects the parameters of the hyperboloid discounting function. In separate conditions, college students chose between immediate payments and larger, delayed payments and between certain payments and larger, probabilistic payments. The hyperboloid function accurately described both types of discounting, and amount of loss had little or no systematic effect on the degree of discounting. Importantly, the amount of loss also had little systematic effect on either the rate parameter or the exponent of the delay and probability discounting functions. The finding that the parameters of the hyperboloid function remain relatively constant across a wide range of amounts of delayed and probabilistic loss stands in contrast to the robust amount effects observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. At the individual level, the degree to which delayed losses were discounted was uncorrelated with the degree to which probabilistic losses were discounted, and delay and probability loaded on two separate factors, similar to what is observed with delayed and probabilistic rewards. Taken together, these findings argue that although delay and probability discounting involve fundamentally different decision-making mechanisms, nevertheless the discounting of delayed and probabilistic losses share an insensitivity to amount that distinguishes it from the discounting of delayed and probabilistic gains. PMID:24745086

Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced Ceramic Matrix Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

2003-01-01

The objective of this report is to summarize the deterministic and probabilistic structural evaluation results of two structures made with advanced ceramic composites (CMC): internally pressurized tube and uniformly loaded flange. The deterministic structural evaluation includes stress, displacement, and buckling analyses. It is carried out using the finite element code MHOST, developed for the 3-D inelastic analysis of structures that are made with advanced materials. The probabilistic evaluation is performed using the integrated probabilistic assessment of composite structures computer code IPACS. The affects of uncertainties in primitive variables related to the material, fabrication process, and loadings on the material property and structural response behavior are quantified. The primitive variables considered are: thermo-mechanical properties of fiber and matrix, fiber and void volume ratios, use temperature, and pressure. The probabilistic structural analysis and probabilistic strength results are used by IPACS to perform reliability and risk evaluation of the two structures. The results will show that the sensitivity information obtained for the two composite structures from the computational simulation can be used to alter the design process to meet desired service requirements. In addition to detailed probabilistic analysis of the two structures, the following were performed specifically on the CMC tube: (1) predicted the failure load and the buckling load, (2) performed coupled non-deterministic multi-disciplinary structural analysis, and (3) demonstrated that probabilistic sensitivities can be used to select a reduced set of design variables for optimization.

The current state of drug discovery and a potential role for NMR metabolomics.

PubMed

Powers, Robert

2014-07-24

The pharmaceutical industry has significantly contributed to improving human health. Drugs have been attributed to both increasing life expectancy and decreasing health care costs. Unfortunately, there has been a recent decline in the creativity and productivity of the pharmaceutical industry. This is a complex issue with many contributing factors resulting from the numerous mergers, increase in out-sourcing, and the heavy dependency on high-throughput screening (HTS). While a simple solution to such a complex problem is unrealistic and highly unlikely, the inclusion of metabolomics as a routine component of the drug discovery process may provide some solutions to these problems. Specifically, as the binding affinity of a chemical lead is evolved during the iterative structure-based drug design process, metabolomics can provide feedback on the selectivity and the in vivo mechanism of action. Similarly, metabolomics can be used to evaluate and validate HTS leads. In effect, metabolomics can be used to eliminate compounds with potential efficacy and side effect problems while prioritizing well-behaved leads with druglike characteristics.

Toward a Data Scalable Solution for Facilitating Discovery of Science Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, Jesse R.; Castellana, Vito G.; Morari, Alessandro

Science is increasingly motivated by the need to process larger quantities of data. It is facing severe challenges in data collection, management, and processing, so much so that the computational demands of “data scaling” are competing with, and in many fields surpassing, the traditional objective of decreasing processing time. Example domains with large datasets include astronomy, biology, genomics, climate/weather, and material sciences. This paper presents a real-world use case in which we wish to answer queries pro- vided by domain scientists in order to facilitate discovery of relevant science resources. The problem is that the metadata for these science resourcesmore » is very large and is growing quickly, rapidly increasing the need for a data scaling solution. We propose a system – SGEM – designed for answering graph-based queries over large datasets on cluster architectures, and we re- port performance results for queries on the current RDESC dataset of nearly 1.4 billion triples, and on the well-known BSBM SPARQL query benchmark.« less

Automated Robust Image Segmentation: Level Set Method Using Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Application to Brain MRI.

PubMed

Dera, Dimah; Bouaynaya, Nidhal; Fathallah-Shaykh, Hassan M

2016-07-01

We address the problem of fully automated region discovery and robust image segmentation by devising a new deformable model based on the level set method (LSM) and the probabilistic nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). We describe the use of NMF to calculate the number of distinct regions in the image and to derive the local distribution of the regions, which is incorporated into the energy functional of the LSM. The results demonstrate that our NMF-LSM method is superior to other approaches when applied to synthetic binary and gray-scale images and to clinical magnetic resonance images (MRI) of the human brain with and without a malignant brain tumor, glioblastoma multiforme. In particular, the NMF-LSM method is fully automated, highly accurate, less sensitive to the initial selection of the contour(s) or initial conditions, more robust to noise and model parameters, and able to detect as small distinct regions as desired. These advantages stem from the fact that the proposed method relies on histogram information instead of intensity values and does not introduce nuisance model parameters. These properties provide a general approach for automated robust region discovery and segmentation in heterogeneous images. Compared with the retrospective radiological diagnoses of two patients with non-enhancing grade 2 and 3 oligodendroglioma, the NMF-LSM detects earlier progression times and appears suitable for monitoring tumor response. The NMF-LSM method fills an important need of automated segmentation of clinical MRI.

Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

2006-01-01

ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

PCEMCAN - Probabilistic Ceramic Matrix Composites Analyzer: User's Guide, Version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, Ashwin R.; Mital, Subodh K.; Murthy, Pappu L. N.

1998-01-01

PCEMCAN (Probabalistic CEramic Matrix Composites ANalyzer) is an integrated computer code developed at NASA Lewis Research Center that simulates uncertainties associated with the constituent properties, manufacturing process, and geometric parameters of fiber reinforced ceramic matrix composites and quantifies their random thermomechanical behavior. The PCEMCAN code can perform the deterministic as well as probabilistic analyses to predict thermomechanical properties. This User's guide details the step-by-step procedure to create input file and update/modify the material properties database required to run PCEMCAN computer code. An overview of the geometric conventions, micromechanical unit cell, nonlinear constitutive relationship and probabilistic simulation methodology is also provided in the manual. Fast probability integration as well as Monte-Carlo simulation methods are available for the uncertainty simulation. Various options available in the code to simulate probabilistic material properties and quantify sensitivity of the primitive random variables have been described. The description of deterministic as well as probabilistic results have been described using demonstration problems. For detailed theoretical description of deterministic and probabilistic analyses, the user is referred to the companion documents "Computational Simulation of Continuous Fiber-Reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composite Behavior," NASA TP-3602, 1996 and "Probabilistic Micromechanics and Macromechanics for Ceramic Matrix Composites", NASA TM 4766, June 1997.

NMR approaches in structure-based lead discovery: recent developments and new frontiers for targeting multi-protein complexes.

PubMed

Dias, David M; Ciulli, Alessio

2014-01-01

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is a pivotal method for structure-based and fragment-based lead discovery because it is one of the most robust techniques to provide information on protein structure, dynamics and interaction at an atomic level in solution. Nowadays, in most ligand screening cascades, NMR-based methods are applied to identify and structurally validate small molecule binding. These can be high-throughput and are often used synergistically with other biophysical assays. Here, we describe current state-of-the-art in the portfolio of available NMR-based experiments that are used to aid early-stage lead discovery. We then focus on multi-protein complexes as targets and how NMR spectroscopy allows studying of interactions within the high molecular weight assemblies that make up a vast fraction of the yet untargeted proteome. Finally, we give our perspective on how currently available methods could build an improved strategy for drug discovery against such challenging targets. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Estimation of the probability of success in petroleum exploration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.

1977-01-01

A probabilistic model for oil exploration can be developed by assessing the conditional relationship between perceived geologic variables and the subsequent discovery of petroleum. Such a model includes two probabilistic components, the first reflecting the association between a geologic condition (structural closure, for example) and the occurrence of oil, and the second reflecting the uncertainty associated with the estimation of geologic variables in areas of limited control. Estimates of the conditional relationship between geologic variables and subsequent production can be found by analyzing the exploration history of a "training area" judged to be geologically similar to the exploration area. The geologic variables are assessed over the training area using an historical subset of the available data, whose density corresponds to the present control density in the exploration area. The success or failure of wells drilled in the training area subsequent to the time corresponding to the historical subset provides empirical estimates of the probability of success conditional upon geology. Uncertainty in perception of geological conditions may be estimated from the distribution of errors made in geologic assessment using the historical subset of control wells. These errors may be expressed as a linear function of distance from available control. Alternatively, the uncertainty may be found by calculating the semivariogram of the geologic variables used in the analysis: the two procedures will yield approximately equivalent results. The empirical probability functions may then be transferred to the exploration area and used to estimate the likelihood of success of specific exploration plays. These estimates will reflect both the conditional relationship between the geological variables used to guide exploration and the uncertainty resulting from lack of control. The technique is illustrated with case histories from the mid-Continent area of the U.S.A. ?? 1977 Plenum Publishing Corp.

Measuring reinforcement learning and motivation constructs in experimental animals: relevance to the negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Markou, Athina; Salamone, John D; Bussey, Timothy J; Mar, Adam C; Brunner, Daniela; Gilmour, Gary; Balsam, Peter

2013-11-01

The present review article summarizes and expands upon the discussions that were initiated during a meeting of the Cognitive Neuroscience Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (CNTRICS; http://cntrics.ucdavis.edu) meeting. A major goal of the CNTRICS meeting was to identify experimental procedures and measures that can be used in laboratory animals to assess psychological constructs that are related to the psychopathology of schizophrenia. The issues discussed in this review reflect the deliberations of the Motivation Working Group of the CNTRICS meeting, which included most of the authors of this article as well as additional participants. After receiving task nominations from the general research community, this working group was asked to identify experimental procedures in laboratory animals that can assess aspects of reinforcement learning and motivation that may be relevant for research on the negative symptoms of schizophrenia, as well as other disorders characterized by deficits in reinforcement learning and motivation. The tasks described here that assess reinforcement learning are the Autoshaping Task, Probabilistic Reward Learning Tasks, and the Response Bias Probabilistic Reward Task. The tasks described here that assess motivation are Outcome Devaluation and Contingency Degradation Tasks and Effort-Based Tasks. In addition to describing such methods and procedures, the present article provides a working vocabulary for research and theory in this field, as well as an industry perspective about how such tasks may be used in drug discovery. It is hoped that this review can aid investigators who are conducting research in this complex area, promote translational studies by highlighting shared research goals and fostering a common vocabulary across basic and clinical fields, and facilitate the development of medications for the treatment of symptoms mediated by reinforcement learning and motivational deficits. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated structure- and system-based framework to identify new targets of metabolites and known drugs

PubMed Central

Naveed, Hammad; Hameed, Umar S.; Harrus, Deborah; Bourguet, William; Arold, Stefan T.; Gao, Xin

2015-01-01

Motivation: The inherent promiscuity of small molecules towards protein targets impedes our understanding of healthy versus diseased metabolism. This promiscuity also poses a challenge for the pharmaceutical industry as identifying all protein targets is important to assess (side) effects and repositioning opportunities for a drug. Results: Here, we present a novel integrated structure- and system-based approach of drug-target prediction (iDTP) to enable the large-scale discovery of new targets for small molecules, such as pharmaceutical drugs, co-factors and metabolites (collectively called ‘drugs’). For a given drug, our method uses sequence order–independent structure alignment, hierarchical clustering and probabilistic sequence similarity to construct a probabilistic pocket ensemble (PPE) that captures promiscuous structural features of different binding sites on known targets. A drug’s PPE is combined with an approximation of its delivery profile to reduce false positives. In our cross-validation study, we use iDTP to predict the known targets of 11 drugs, with 63% sensitivity and 81% specificity. We then predicted novel targets for these drugs—two that are of high pharmacological interest, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma and the oncogene B-cell lymphoma 2, were successfully validated through in vitro binding experiments. Our method is broadly applicable for the prediction of protein-small molecule interactions with several novel applications to biological research and drug development. Availability and implementation: The program, datasets and results are freely available to academic users at http://sfb.kaust.edu.sa/Pages/Software.aspx. Contact: xin.gao@kaust.edu.sa and stefan.arold@kaust.edu.sa Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:26286808

Discovery of Transcriptional Targets Regulated by Nuclear Receptors Using a Probabilistic Graphical Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Mikyung; Huang, Ruili; Tong, Weida

2016-01-01

Nuclear receptors (NRs) are ligand-activated transcriptional regulators that play vital roles in key biological processes such as growth, differentiation, metabolism, reproduction, and morphogenesis. Disruption of NRs can result in adverse health effects such as NR-mediated endocrine disruption. A comprehensive understanding of core transcriptional targets regulated by NRs helps to elucidate their key biological processes in both toxicological and therapeutic aspects. In this study, we applied a probabilistic graphical model to identify the transcriptional targets of NRs and the biological processes they govern. The Tox21 program profiled a collection of approximate 10 000 environmental chemicals and drugs against a panel of human NRs in a quantitative high-throughput screening format for their NR disruption potential. The Japanese Toxicogenomics Project, one of the most comprehensive efforts in the field of toxicogenomics, generated large-scale gene expression profiles on the effect of 131 compounds (in its first phase of study) at various doses, and different durations, and their combinations. We applied author-topic model to these 2 toxicological datasets, which consists of 11 NRs run in either agonist and/or antagonist mode (18 assays total) and 203 in vitro human gene expression profiles connected by 52 shared drugs. As a result, a set of clusters (topics), which consists of a set of NRs and their associated target genes were determined. Various transcriptional targets of the NRs were identified by assays run in either agonist or antagonist mode. Our results were validated by functional analysis and compared with TRANSFAC data. In summary, our approach resulted in effective identification of associated/affected NRs and their target genes, providing biologically meaningful hypothesis embedded in their relationships. PMID:26643261

Measuring reinforcement learning and motivation constructs in experimental animals: relevance to the negative symptoms of schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Markou, Athina; Salamone, John D.; Bussey, Timothy; Mar, Adam; Brunner, Daniela; Gilmour, Gary; Balsam, Peter

2013-01-01

The present review article summarizes and expands upon the discussions that were initiated during a meeting of the Cognitive Neuroscience Treatment Research to Improve Cognition in Schizophrenia (CNTRICS; http://cntrics.ucdavis.edu). A major goal of the CNTRICS meeting was to identify experimental procedures and measures that can be used in laboratory animals to assess psychological constructs that are related to the psychopathology of schizophrenia. The issues discussed in this review reflect the deliberations of the Motivation Working Group of the CNTRICS meeting, which included most of the authors of this article as well as additional participants. After receiving task nominations from the general research community, this working group was asked to identify experimental procedures in laboratory animals that can assess aspects of reinforcement learning and motivation that may be relevant for research on the negative symptoms of schizophrenia, as well as other disorders characterized by deficits in reinforcement learning and motivation. The tasks described here that assess reinforcement learning are the Autoshaping Task, Probabilistic Reward Learning Tasks, and the Response Bias Probabilistic Reward Task. The tasks described here that assess motivation are Outcome Devaluation and Contingency Degradation Tasks and Effort-Based Tasks. In addition to describing such methods and procedures, the present article provides a working vocabulary for research and theory in this field, as well as an industry perspective about how such tasks may be used in drug discovery. It is hoped that this review can aid investigators who are conducting research in this complex area, promote translational studies by highlighting shared research goals and fostering a common vocabulary across basic and clinical fields, and facilitate the development of medications for the treatment of symptoms mediated by reinforcement learning and motivational deficits. PMID:23994273

Relative Gains, Losses, and Reference Points in Probabilistic Choice in Rats

PubMed Central

Marshall, Andrew T.; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

2015-01-01

Theoretical reference points have been proposed to differentiate probabilistic gains from probabilistic losses in humans, but such a phenomenon in non-human animals has yet to be thoroughly elucidated. Three experiments evaluated the effect of reward magnitude on probabilistic choice in rats, seeking to determine reference point use by examining the effect of previous outcome magnitude(s) on subsequent choice behavior. Rats were trained to choose between an outcome that always delivered reward (low-uncertainty choice) and one that probabilistically delivered reward (high-uncertainty). The probability of high-uncertainty outcome receipt and the magnitudes of low-uncertainty and high-uncertainty outcomes were manipulated within and between experiments. Both the low- and high-uncertainty outcomes involved variable reward magnitudes, so that either a smaller or larger magnitude was probabilistically delivered, as well as reward omission following high-uncertainty choices. In Experiments 1 and 2, the between groups factor was the magnitude of the high-uncertainty-smaller (H-S) and high-uncertainty-larger (H-L) outcome, respectively. The H-S magnitude manipulation differentiated the groups, while the H-L magnitude manipulation did not. Experiment 3 showed that manipulating the probability of differential losses as well as the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice produced systematic effects on choice behavior. The results suggest that the reference point for probabilistic gains and losses was the expected value of the low-uncertainty choice. Current theories of probabilistic choice behavior have difficulty accounting for the present results, so an integrated theoretical framework is proposed. Overall, the present results have implications for understanding individual differences and corresponding underlying mechanisms of probabilistic choice behavior. PMID:25658448

Subcellular localization for Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial proteins using linear interpolation smoothing model.

PubMed

Saini, Harsh; Raicar, Gaurav; Dehzangi, Abdollah; Lal, Sunil; Sharma, Alok

2015-12-07

Protein subcellular localization is an important topic in proteomics since it is related to a protein׳s overall function, helps in the understanding of metabolic pathways, and in drug design and discovery. In this paper, a basic approximation technique from natural language processing called the linear interpolation smoothing model is applied for predicting protein subcellular localizations. The proposed approach extracts features from syntactical information in protein sequences to build probabilistic profiles using dependency models, which are used in linear interpolation to determine how likely is a sequence to belong to a particular subcellular location. This technique builds a statistical model based on maximum likelihood. It is able to deal effectively with high dimensionality that hinders other traditional classifiers such as Support Vector Machines or k-Nearest Neighbours without sacrificing performance. This approach has been evaluated by predicting subcellular localizations of Gram positive and Gram negative bacterial proteins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GRIDSS: sensitive and specific genomic rearrangement detection using positional de Bruijn graph assembly

PubMed Central

Do, Hongdo; Molania, Ramyar

2017-01-01

The identification of genomic rearrangements with high sensitivity and specificity using massively parallel sequencing remains a major challenge, particularly in precision medicine and cancer research. Here, we describe a new method for detecting rearrangements, GRIDSS (Genome Rearrangement IDentification Software Suite). GRIDSS is a multithreaded structural variant (SV) caller that performs efficient genome-wide break-end assembly prior to variant calling using a novel positional de Bruijn graph-based assembler. By combining assembly, split read, and read pair evidence using a probabilistic scoring, GRIDSS achieves high sensitivity and specificity on simulated, cell line, and patient tumor data, recently winning SV subchallenge #5 of the ICGC-TCGA DREAM8.5 Somatic Mutation Calling Challenge. On human cell line data, GRIDSS halves the false discovery rate compared to other recent methods while matching or exceeding their sensitivity. GRIDSS identifies nontemplate sequence insertions, microhomologies, and large imperfect homologies, estimates a quality score for each breakpoint, stratifies calls into high or low confidence, and supports multisample analysis. PMID:29097403

Mermin inequalities for GHZ contradictions in many-qutrit systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, Walter

In view of recent experimental interest in multi-qutrit entanglement properties, we provide here new Mermin inequalities for use in experimental tests of many-qutrit GHZ contradictions, first predicted only recently (2013). Mermin inequalities refer here to Bell-like inequalities in which the quantum predictions are not probabilistic, thus elevating hidden variables to the status of EPR elements of reality. Earlier Bell inequalities for qutrits predate the discovery of GHZ contradictions, are based on non-concurrent observable sets, and hence cannot establish GHZ contradictions. The current Mermin inequalities are derived from those concurrent observable sets which produce GHZ contradictions, with the following results: (i) There is an operator M defined for every N >= 4 , built on two measurement bases, whose quantum eigenvalue grows as 2N, maximum classical value more slowly (1 .879N), with quantum to classical ratio being never less than 1.39, and (ii) For N = 3 , there is an M3, built on three local measurement bases, whose quantum to classical ratio is 3/2.

Multivariate Heteroscedasticity Models for Functional Brain Connectivity.

PubMed

Seiler, Christof; Holmes, Susan

2017-01-01

Functional brain connectivity is the co-occurrence of brain activity in different areas during resting and while doing tasks. The data of interest are multivariate timeseries measured simultaneously across brain parcels using resting-state fMRI (rfMRI). We analyze functional connectivity using two heteroscedasticity models. Our first model is low-dimensional and scales linearly in the number of brain parcels. Our second model scales quadratically. We apply both models to data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) comparing connectivity between short and conventional sleepers. We find stronger functional connectivity in short than conventional sleepers in brain areas consistent with previous findings. This might be due to subjects falling asleep in the scanner. Consequently, we recommend the inclusion of average sleep duration as a covariate to remove unwanted variation in rfMRI studies. A power analysis using the HCP data shows that a sample size of 40 detects 50% of the connectivity at a false discovery rate of 20%. We provide implementations using R and the probabilistic programming language Stan.

Bernoulli, Darwin, and Sagan: the probability of life on other planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossmo, D. Kim

2017-04-01

The recent discovery that billions of planets in the Milky Way Galaxy may be in circumstellar habitable zones has renewed speculation over the possibility of extraterrestrial life. The Drake equation is a probabilistic framework for estimating the number of technological advanced civilizations in our Galaxy; however, many of the equation's component probabilities are either unknown or have large error intervals. In this paper, a different method of examining this question is explored, one that replaces the various Drake factors with the single estimate for the probability of life existing on Earth. This relationship can be described by the binomial distribution if the presence of life on a given number of planets is equated to successes in a Bernoulli trial. The question of exoplanet life may then be reformulated as follows - given the probability of one or more independent successes for a given number of trials, what is the probability of two or more successes? Some of the implications of this approach for finding life on exoplanets are discussed.

Rethinking the learning of belief network probabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Musick, R.

Belief networks are a powerful tool for knowledge discovery that provide concise, understandable probabilistic models of data. There are methods grounded in probability theory to incrementally update the relationships described by the belief network when new information is seen, to perform complex inferences over any set of variables in the data, to incorporate domain expertise and prior knowledge into the model, and to automatically learn the model from data. This paper concentrates on part of the belief network induction problem, that of learning the quantitative structure (the conditional probabilities), given the qualitative structure. In particular, the current practice of rotemore » learning the probabilities in belief networks can be significantly improved upon. We advance the idea of applying any learning algorithm to the task of conditional probability learning in belief networks, discuss potential benefits, and show results of applying neutral networks and other algorithms to a medium sized car insurance belief network. The results demonstrate from 10 to 100% improvements in model error rates over the current approaches.« less

Probabilistic structural analysis methods of hot engine structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Hopkins, D. A.

1989-01-01

Development of probabilistic structural analysis methods for hot engine structures at Lewis Research Center is presented. Three elements of the research program are: (1) composite load spectra methodology; (2) probabilistic structural analysis methodology; and (3) probabilistic structural analysis application. Recent progress includes: (1) quantification of the effects of uncertainties for several variables on high pressure fuel turbopump (HPFT) turbine blade temperature, pressure, and torque of the space shuttle main engine (SSME); (2) the evaluation of the cumulative distribution function for various structural response variables based on assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; and (3) evaluation of the failure probability. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability of hot engine structural components can be effectively evaluated in a formal probabilistic/reliability framework.

Overview of Probabilistic Methods for SAE G-11 Meeting for Reliability and Uncertainty Quantification for DoD TACOM Initiative with SAE G-11 Division

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singhal, Surendra N.

2003-01-01

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting during October 6-8 at the Best Western Sterling Inn, Sterling Heights (Detroit), Michigan is co-sponsored by US Army Tank-automotive & Armaments Command (TACOM). The meeting will provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11's Probabilistic Methods Committee is to "enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development."

A Markov Chain Approach to Probabilistic Swarm Guidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Acikmese, Behcet; Bayard, David S.

2012-01-01

This paper introduces a probabilistic guidance approach for the coordination of swarms of autonomous agents. The main idea is to drive the swarm to a prescribed density distribution in a prescribed region of the configuration space. In its simplest form, the probabilistic approach is completely decentralized and does not require communication or collabo- ration between agents. Agents make statistically independent probabilistic decisions based solely on their own state, that ultimately guides the swarm to the desired density distribution in the configuration space. In addition to being completely decentralized, the probabilistic guidance approach has a novel autonomous self-repair property: Once the desired swarm density distribution is attained, the agents automatically repair any damage to the distribution without collaborating and without any knowledge about the damage.

Supersymmetric tools in Yang-Mills theories at strong coupling: The beginning of a long journey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shifman, Mikhail

2018-04-01

Development of holomorphy-based methods in super-Yang-Mills theories started in the early 1980s and lead to a number of breakthrough results. I review some results in which I participated. The discovery of Seiberg’s duality and the Seiberg-Witten solution of 𝒩 = 2 Yang-Mills were the milestones in the long journey of which, I assume, much will be said in other talks. I will focus on the discovery (2003) of non-Abelian vortex strings with various degrees of supersymmetry, supported in some four-dimensional Yang-Mills theories and some intriguing implications of this discovery. One of the recent results is the observation of a soliton string in the bulk 𝒩 = 2 theory with the U(2) gauge group and four flavors, which can become critical in a certain limit. This is the case of a “reverse holography,” with a very transparent physical meaning.

The dynamics of insight: mathematical discovery as a phase transition.

PubMed

Stephen, Damian G; Boncoddo, Rebecca A; Magnuson, James S; Dixon, James A

2009-12-01

In recent work in cognitive science, it has been proposed that cognition is a self-organizing, dynamical system. However, capturing the real-time dynamics of cognition has been a formidable challenge. Furthermore, it has been unclear whether dynamics could effectively address the emergence of abstract concepts (e.g., language, mathematics). Here, we provide evidence that a quintessentially cognitive phenomenon-the spontaneous discovery of a mathematical relation-emerges through self-organization. Participants solved a series of gear-system problems while we tracked their eye movements. They initially solved the problems by manually simulating the forces of the gears but then spontaneously discovered a mathematical solution. We show that the discovery of the mathematical relation was predicted by changes in entropy and changes in power-law behavior, two hallmarks of phase transitions. Thus, the present study demonstrates the emergence of higher order cognitive phenomena through the nonlinear dynamics of self-organization.

A look-ahead probabilistic contingency analysis framework incorporating smart sampling techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yousu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ren, Huiying

2016-07-18

This paper describes a framework of incorporating smart sampling techniques in a probabilistic look-ahead contingency analysis application. The predictive probabilistic contingency analysis helps to reflect the impact of uncertainties caused by variable generation and load on potential violations of transmission limits.

Error Discounting in Probabilistic Category Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, Stewart; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Little, Daniel R.

2011-01-01

The assumption in some current theories of probabilistic categorization is that people gradually attenuate their learning in response to unavoidable error. However, existing evidence for this error discounting is sparse and open to alternative interpretations. We report 2 probabilistic-categorization experiments in which we investigated error…

Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Probability of Release of Hazardous Materials from Railroad Tank Cars during Accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-10-13

This paper describes a probabilistic approach to estimate the conditional probability of release of hazardous materials from railroad tank cars during train accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used in developing a probabilistic model to simulate head ...

Probabilistic sizing of laminates with uncertainties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shah, A. R.; Liaw, D. G.; Chamis, C. C.

1993-01-01

A reliability based design methodology for laminate sizing and configuration for a special case of composite structures is described. The methodology combines probabilistic composite mechanics with probabilistic structural analysis. The uncertainties of constituent materials (fiber and matrix) to predict macroscopic behavior are simulated using probabilistic theory. Uncertainties in the degradation of composite material properties are included in this design methodology. A multi-factor interaction equation is used to evaluate load and environment dependent degradation of the composite material properties at the micromechanics level. The methodology is integrated into a computer code IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). Versatility of this design approach is demonstrated by performing a multi-level probabilistic analysis to size the laminates for design structural reliability of random type structures. The results show that laminate configurations can be selected to improve the structural reliability from three failures in 1000, to no failures in one million. Results also show that the laminates with the highest reliability are the least sensitive to the loading conditions.

Wind effects on long-span bridges: Probabilistic wind data format for buffeting and VIV load assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, K.; Srouji, R. G.; Hansen, S. O.

2017-12-01

The technology development within the structural design of long-span bridges in Norwegian fjords has created a need for reformulating the calculation format and the physical quantities used to describe the properties of wind and the associated wind-induced effects on bridge decks. Parts of a new probabilistic format describing the incoming, undisturbed wind is presented. It is expected that a fixed probabilistic format will facilitate a more physically consistent and precise description of the wind conditions, which in turn increase the accuracy and considerably reduce uncertainties in wind load assessments. Because the format is probabilistic, a quantification of the level of safety and uncertainty in predicted wind loads is readily accessible. A simple buffeting response calculation demonstrates the use of probabilistic wind data in the assessment of wind loads and responses. Furthermore, vortex-induced fatigue damage is discussed in relation to probabilistic wind turbulence data and response measurements from wind tunnel tests.

Distributed collaborative probabilistic design for turbine blade-tip radial running clearance using support vector machine of regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fei, Cheng-Wei; Bai, Guang-Chen

2014-12-01

To improve the computational precision and efficiency of probabilistic design for mechanical dynamic assembly like the blade-tip radial running clearance (BTRRC) of gas turbine, a distribution collaborative probabilistic design method-based support vector machine of regression (SR)(called as DCSRM) is proposed by integrating distribution collaborative response surface method and support vector machine regression model. The mathematical model of DCSRM is established and the probabilistic design idea of DCSRM is introduced. The dynamic assembly probabilistic design of aeroengine high-pressure turbine (HPT) BTRRC is accomplished to verify the proposed DCSRM. The analysis results reveal that the optimal static blade-tip clearance of HPT is gained for designing BTRRC, and improving the performance and reliability of aeroengine. The comparison of methods shows that the DCSRM has high computational accuracy and high computational efficiency in BTRRC probabilistic analysis. The present research offers an effective way for the reliability design of mechanical dynamic assembly and enriches mechanical reliability theory and method.

Superposition-Based Analysis of First-Order Probabilistic Timed Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fietzke, Arnaud; Hermanns, Holger; Weidenbach, Christoph

This paper discusses the analysis of first-order probabilistic timed automata (FPTA) by a combination of hierarchic first-order superposition-based theorem proving and probabilistic model checking. We develop the overall semantics of FPTAs and prove soundness and completeness of our method for reachability properties. Basically, we decompose FPTAs into their time plus first-order logic aspects on the one hand, and their probabilistic aspects on the other hand. Then we exploit the time plus first-order behavior by hierarchic superposition over linear arithmetic. The result of this analysis is the basis for the construction of a reachability equivalent (to the original FPTA) probabilistic timed automaton to which probabilistic model checking is finally applied. The hierarchic superposition calculus required for the analysis is sound and complete on the first-order formulas generated from FPTAs. It even works well in practice. We illustrate the potential behind it with a real-life DHCP protocol example, which we analyze by means of tool chain support.

Design optimization and probabilistic analysis of a hydrodynamic journal bearing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liniecki, Alexander G.

1990-01-01

A nonlinear constrained optimization of a hydrodynamic bearing was performed yielding three main variables: radial clearance, bearing length to diameter ratio, and lubricating oil viscosity. As an objective function a combined model of temperature rise and oil supply has been adopted. The optimized model of the bearing has been simulated for population of 1000 cases using Monte Carlo statistical method. It appeared that the so called 'optimal solution' generated more than 50 percent of failed bearings, because their minimum oil film thickness violated stipulated minimum constraint value. As a remedy change of oil viscosity is suggested after several sensitivities of variables have been investigated.

First-order design of geodetic networks using the simulated annealing method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berné, J. L.; Baselga, S.

2004-09-01

The general problem of the optimal design for a geodetic network subject to any extrinsic factors, namely the first-order design problem, can be dealt with as a numeric optimization problem. The classic theory of this problem and the optimization methods are revised. Then the innovative use of the simulated annealing method, which has been successfully applied in other fields, is presented for this classical geodetic problem. This method, belonging to iterative heuristic techniques in operational research, uses a thermodynamical analogy to crystalline networks to offer a solution that converges probabilistically to the global optimum. Basic formulation and some examples are studied.

SETS. Set Equation Transformation System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Worrell, R.B.

1992-01-13

SETS is used for symbolic manipulation of Boolean equations, particularly the reduction of equations by the application of Boolean identities. It is a flexible and efficient tool for performing probabilistic risk analysis (PRA), vital area analysis, and common cause analysis. The equation manipulation capabilities of SETS can also be used to analyze noncoherent fault trees and determine prime implicants of Boolean functions, to verify circuit design implementation, to determine minimum cost fire protection requirements for nuclear reactor plants, to obtain solutions to combinatorial optimization problems with Boolean constraints, and to determine the susceptibility of a facility to unauthorized access throughmore » nullification of sensors in its protection system.« less

Some matters relating to the documentary evidence of the discovery of Neptune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, N.

2014-04-01

The discovery of the planet Neptune was regarded as one of the greatest discoveries of the nineteenth century. Its existence was first detected, not by eye or with telescope, but by the mathematical analysis of the orbit of the planet Uranus. The perturbations of Uranus were under investigation by John Couch Adams (1819-92) in Cambridge, and Urban Le Verrier (1811-77) in Paris. Both these astronomers believed that the irregularities in the motion of Uranus could only be attributed to the action of an unknown planet of the Solar System. However, the circumstances of the discovery have once again become a matter of dispute and contention by some recent historians. My aim is to review the essential facts and the interpretation placed on them and to examine the conspiracy theories that have arisen from an examination of the documentary evidence. These conspiracy theories have detracted from Adams, the true merit of his early researches and his place in the history of the discovery. There has also been speculative allegations made of the character of Adams based on selected documentary evidence, which I believe is not necessarily a true representation of the facts. In presenting a fair portrayal of Adams's researches, I have reconstructed his 1845 October solution in a way that has not been done before.

PRIM versus CART in subgroup discovery: when patience is harmful.

PubMed

Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Nannings, Barry; Dongelmans, Dave; Hasman, Arie

2010-10-01

We systematically compare the established algorithms CART (Classification and Regression Trees) and PRIM (Patient Rule Induction Method) in a subgroup discovery task on a large real-world high-dimensional clinical database. Contrary to current conjectures, PRIM's performance was generally inferior to CART's. PRIM often considered "peeling of" a large chunk of data at a value of a relevant discrete ordinal variable unattractive, ultimately missing an important subgroup. This finding has considerable significance in clinical medicine where ordinal scores are ubiquitous. PRIM's utility in clinical databases would increase when global information about (ordinal) variables is better put to use and when the search algorithm keeps track of alternative solutions.

Learning lessons from drugs that have recently entered the market.

PubMed

Teague, Simon J

2011-05-01

Which projects in the drug discovery field are most likely to be successful? In this article, I provide guidelines for answering this question by examining recent drug market entrants in detail, in particular their route of administration, trial design, novelty, therapeutic target and toxicities. I identify targets, trials and organizations as the key issues that are currently leading to the poor productivity in the pharmaceutical industry. Here, I outline some solutions and reasons for optimism, and suggest that the key determinants for success in drug discovery can be defined by studying recently launched drugs. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Evaluation of Different Target Enrichment Methods in Pooled Sequencing Designs for Complex Disease Association Studies

PubMed Central

Day-Williams, Aaron G.; McLay, Kirsten; Drury, Eleanor; Edkins, Sarah; Coffey, Alison J.; Palotie, Aarno; Zeggini, Eleftheria

2011-01-01

Pooled sequencing can be a cost-effective approach to disease variant discovery, but its applicability in association studies remains unclear. We compare sequence enrichment methods coupled to next-generation sequencing in non-indexed pools of 1, 2, 10, 20 and 50 individuals and assess their ability to discover variants and to estimate their allele frequencies. We find that pooled resequencing is most usefully applied as a variant discovery tool due to limitations in estimating allele frequency with high enough accuracy for association studies, and that in-solution hybrid-capture performs best among the enrichment methods examined regardless of pool size. PMID:22069447

Suicide case with multiple injuries with sharp objects.

PubMed

Черняк, Валентина В; Девяткин, Александр Е; Мустафина, Галия М; Никифоров, Артём Г

The work of forensic - medical expert examination of the corpse at the place of its discovery and further research in the morgue often there are certain difficulties associated with the solution of a number of issues, including the establishment of a kind of death. Bringing the case demonstrates that, during the initial examination of the corpse to the place of its discovery the presence of multiple injuries on the body of a different nature, as a rule, initially suggest investigators to suspect that the murder occurred. But further questioning around him lately those studying survey data and scene study results allowed the corpse to make objective conclusions.

Fast Marching Tree: a Fast Marching Sampling-Based Method for Optimal Motion Planning in Many Dimensions*

PubMed Central

Janson, Lucas; Schmerling, Edward; Clark, Ashley; Pavone, Marco

2015-01-01

In this paper we present a novel probabilistic sampling-based motion planning algorithm called the Fast Marching Tree algorithm (FMT*). The algorithm is specifically aimed at solving complex motion planning problems in high-dimensional configuration spaces. This algorithm is proven to be asymptotically optimal and is shown to converge to an optimal solution faster than its state-of-the-art counterparts, chiefly PRM* and RRT*. The FMT* algorithm performs a “lazy” dynamic programming recursion on a predetermined number of probabilistically-drawn samples to grow a tree of paths, which moves steadily outward in cost-to-arrive space. As such, this algorithm combines features of both single-query algorithms (chiefly RRT) and multiple-query algorithms (chiefly PRM), and is reminiscent of the Fast Marching Method for the solution of Eikonal equations. As a departure from previous analysis approaches that are based on the notion of almost sure convergence, the FMT* algorithm is analyzed under the notion of convergence in probability: the extra mathematical flexibility of this approach allows for convergence rate bounds—the first in the field of optimal sampling-based motion planning. Specifically, for a certain selection of tuning parameters and configuration spaces, we obtain a convergence rate bound of order O(n−1/d+ρ), where n is the number of sampled points, d is the dimension of the configuration space, and ρ is an arbitrarily small constant. We go on to demonstrate asymptotic optimality for a number of variations on FMT*, namely when the configuration space is sampled non-uniformly, when the cost is not arc length, and when connections are made based on the number of nearest neighbors instead of a fixed connection radius. Numerical experiments over a range of dimensions and obstacle configurations confirm our the-oretical and heuristic arguments by showing that FMT*, for a given execution time, returns substantially better solutions than either PRM* or RRT*, especially in high-dimensional configuration spaces and in scenarios where collision-checking is expensive. PMID:27003958

An intelligent computer tutor to guide self-explanation while learning from examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conati, Cristina

1999-11-01

Many studies in cognitive science show that self-explanation---the process of clarifying and making more complete to oneself the solution of an example---improves learning, and that guiding self-explanation extends these benefits. This thesis presents an intelligent computer tutor that aims to improve learning from examples by supporting self-explanation. The tutor, known as the SE (self-explanation) Coach, is innovative in two ways. First, it represents the first attempt to develop a computer tutor that supports example studying instead of problem solving. Second, it explicitly guides a domain-general, meta-cognitive skill: self-explanation. The SE-Coach is part of the Andes tutoring system for college physics and is meant to be used in conjunction with the problem solving tasks that Andes supports. In order to maximize the system capability to trigger the same beneficial cognitive processes, every element of the SE-Coach embeds existing hypotheses about the features that make self-explanation effective for learning. Designing the SE-Coach involved finding solutions for three main challenges: (1) To design an interface that effectively monitors and supports self-explanation. (2) To devise a student model that allows the assessment of example understanding from reading and self-examination actions. (3) To effectively elicit further self-explanation that improves student's example understanding. In this work we present our solutions to these challenges: (1) An interface including principled, interactive tools to explore examples and build self-explanations under the SECoach's supervision. (2) A probabilistic student model based on a Bayesian network, which integrates a model of correct self-explanation and information on the student's knowledge and studying actions to generate a probabilistic assessment of the student's example understanding. (3) Tutorial interventions that rely on the student model to detect deficits in the student's example understanding and elicit self-explanations that overcome them. In this thesis we also present the results of a formal study with 56 college students to evaluate the effectiveness of the SE-Coach. We discuss some hypotheses to explain the obtained results, based on the analysis of the data collected during the experiment.

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Glacial Dynamics Based on the Shallow Ice Approximation and its Evaluation Using Analytical Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gopalan, Giri; Hrafnkelsson, Birgir; Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Pálsson, Finnur

2018-03-01

Bayesian hierarchical modeling can assist the study of glacial dynamics and ice flow properties. This approach will allow glaciologists to make fully probabilistic predictions for the thickness of a glacier at unobserved spatio-temporal coordinates, and it will also allow for the derivation of posterior probability distributions for key physical parameters such as ice viscosity and basal sliding. The goal of this paper is to develop a proof of concept for a Bayesian hierarchical model constructed, which uses exact analytical solutions for the shallow ice approximation (SIA) introduced by Bueler et al. (2005). A suite of test simulations utilizing these exact solutions suggests that this approach is able to adequately model numerical errors and produce useful physical parameter posterior distributions and predictions. A byproduct of the development of the Bayesian hierarchical model is the derivation of a novel finite difference method for solving the SIA partial differential equation (PDE). An additional novelty of this work is the correction of numerical errors induced through a numerical solution using a statistical model. This error correcting process models numerical errors that accumulate forward in time and spatial variation of numerical errors between the dome, interior, and margin of a glacier.

Preemption versus Entrenchment: Towards a Construction-General Solution to the Problem of the Retreat from Verb Argument Structure Overgeneralization

PubMed Central

Ambridge, Ben; Bidgood, Amy; Twomey, Katherine E.; Pine, Julian M.; Rowland, Caroline F.; Freudenthal, Daniel

2015-01-01

Participants aged 5;2-6;8, 9;2-10;6 and 18;1-22;2 (72 at each age) rated verb argument structure overgeneralization errors (e.g., *Daddy giggled the baby) using a five-point scale. The study was designed to investigate the feasibility of two proposed construction-general solutions to the question of how children retreat from, or avoid, such errors. No support was found for the prediction of the preemption hypothesis that the greater the frequency of the verb in the single most nearly synonymous construction (for this example, the periphrastic causative; e.g., Daddy made the baby giggle), the lower the acceptability of the error. Support was found, however, for the prediction of the entrenchment hypothesis that the greater the overall frequency of the verb, regardless of construction, the lower the acceptability of the error, at least for the two older groups. Thus while entrenchment appears to be a robust solution to the problem of the retreat from error, and one that generalizes across different error types, we did not find evidence that this is the case for preemption. The implication is that the solution to the retreat from error lies not with specialized mechanisms, but rather in a probabilistic process of construction competition. PMID:25919003

Preemption versus Entrenchment: Towards a Construction-General Solution to the Problem of the Retreat from Verb Argument Structure Overgeneralization.

PubMed

Ambridge, Ben; Bidgood, Amy; Twomey, Katherine E; Pine, Julian M; Rowland, Caroline F; Freudenthal, Daniel

2014-01-01

Participants aged 5;2-6;8, 9;2-10;6 and 18;1-22;2 (72 at each age) rated verb argument structure overgeneralization errors (e.g., *Daddy giggled the baby) using a five-point scale. The study was designed to investigate the feasibility of two proposed construction-general solutions to the question of how children retreat from, or avoid, such errors. No support was found for the prediction of the preemption hypothesis that the greater the frequency of the verb in the single most nearly synonymous construction (for this example, the periphrastic causative; e.g., Daddy made the baby giggle), the lower the acceptability of the error. Support was found, however, for the prediction of the entrenchment hypothesis that the greater the overall frequency of the verb, regardless of construction, the lower the acceptability of the error, at least for the two older groups. Thus while entrenchment appears to be a robust solution to the problem of the retreat from error, and one that generalizes across different error types, we did not find evidence that this is the case for preemption. The implication is that the solution to the retreat from error lies not with specialized mechanisms, but rather in a probabilistic process of construction competition.

Topics in Probabilistic Judgment Aggregation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Guanchun

2011-01-01

This dissertation is a compilation of several studies that are united by their relevance to probabilistic judgment aggregation. In the face of complex and uncertain events, panels of judges are frequently consulted to provide probabilistic forecasts, and aggregation of such estimates in groups often yield better results than could have been made…

Cognitive Development Effects of Teaching Probabilistic Decision Making to Middle School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.; Lindner, James R.

2011-01-01

This study investigated the comprehension and effectiveness of teaching formal, probabilistic decision-making skills to middle school students. Two specific objectives were to determine (1) if middle school students can comprehend a probabilistic decision-making approach, and (2) if exposure to the modeling approaches improves middle school…

Generative Topic Modeling in Image Data Mining and Bioinformatics Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Xin

2012-01-01

Probabilistic topic models have been developed for applications in various domains such as text mining, information retrieval and computer vision and bioinformatics domain. In this thesis, we focus on developing novel probabilistic topic models for image mining and bioinformatics studies. Specifically, a probabilistic topic-connection (PTC) model…

Probabilistic Cue Combination: Less Is More

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurovsky, Daniel; Boyer, Ty W.; Smith, Linda B.; Yu, Chen

2013-01-01

Learning about the structure of the world requires learning probabilistic relationships: rules in which cues do not predict outcomes with certainty. However, in some cases, the ability to track probabilistic relationships is a handicap, leading adults to perform non-normatively in prediction tasks. For example, in the "dilution effect,"…

Is Probabilistic Evidence a Source of Knowledge?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friedman, Ori; Turri, John

2015-01-01

We report a series of experiments examining whether people ascribe knowledge for true beliefs based on probabilistic evidence. Participants were less likely to ascribe knowledge for beliefs based on probabilistic evidence than for beliefs based on perceptual evidence (Experiments 1 and 2A) or testimony providing causal information (Experiment 2B).…

Probabilistic Structural Analysis of the SRB Aft Skirt External Fitting Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, John S.; Peck, J.; Ayala, S.

1999-01-01

NASA has funded several major programs (the PSAM Project is an example) to develop Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods and tools for engineers to apply in the design and assessment of aerospace hardware. A probabilistic finite element design tool, known as NESSUS, is used to determine the reliability of the Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) aft skirt critical weld. An external bracket modification to the aft skirt provides a comparison basis for examining the details of the probabilistic analysis and its contributions to the design process.

System Risk Assessment and Allocation in Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahadevan, Sankaran; Smith, Natasha L.; Zang, Thomas A. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

As aerospace systems continue to evolve in addressing newer challenges in air and space transportation, there exists a heightened priority for significant improvement in system performance, cost effectiveness, reliability, and safety. Tools, which synthesize multidisciplinary integration, probabilistic analysis, and optimization, are needed to facilitate design decisions allowing trade-offs between cost and reliability. This study investigates tools for probabilistic analysis and probabilistic optimization in the multidisciplinary design of aerospace systems. A probabilistic optimization methodology is demonstrated for the low-fidelity design of a reusable launch vehicle at two levels, a global geometry design and a local tank design. Probabilistic analysis is performed on a high fidelity analysis of a Navy missile system. Furthermore, decoupling strategies are introduced to reduce the computational effort required for multidisciplinary systems with feedback coupling.

Reliability and risk assessment of structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.

1991-01-01

Development of reliability and risk assessment of structural components and structures is a major activity at Lewis Research Center. It consists of five program elements: (1) probabilistic loads; (2) probabilistic finite element analysis; (3) probabilistic material behavior; (4) assessment of reliability and risk; and (5) probabilistic structural performance evaluation. Recent progress includes: (1) the evaluation of the various uncertainties in terms of cumulative distribution functions for various structural response variables based on known or assumed uncertainties in primitive structural variables; (2) evaluation of the failure probability; (3) reliability and risk-cost assessment; and (4) an outline of an emerging approach for eventual certification of man-rated structures by computational methods. Collectively, the results demonstrate that the structural durability/reliability of man-rated structural components and structures can be effectively evaluated by using formal probabilistic methods.

Fully probabilistic control design in an adaptive critic framework.

PubMed

Herzallah, Randa; Kárný, Miroslav

2011-12-01

Optimal stochastic controller pushes the closed-loop behavior as close as possible to the desired one. The fully probabilistic design (FPD) uses probabilistic description of the desired closed loop and minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence of the closed-loop description to the desired one. Practical exploitation of the fully probabilistic design control theory continues to be hindered by the computational complexities involved in numerically solving the associated stochastic dynamic programming problem; in particular, very hard multivariate integration and an approximate interpolation of the involved multivariate functions. This paper proposes a new fully probabilistic control algorithm that uses the adaptive critic methods to circumvent the need for explicitly evaluating the optimal value function, thereby dramatically reducing computational requirements. This is a main contribution of this paper. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Psychology Needs Realism, Not Instrumentalism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haig, Brian D.

2005-01-01

In this article, the author presents his comments on "Realism, Instrumentalism, and Scientific Symbiosis: Psychological Theory as a Search for Truth and the Discovery of Solutions" by John T. Cacioppo, Gun R. Semin and Gary G. Berntson. In the original article, the authors recommended the combined use of the philosophies of scientific realism and…

Streamlining the Discovery, Evaluation, and Integration of Data, Models, and Decision Support Systems: a Big Picture View

EPA Science Inventory

21st century environmental problems are wicked and require holistic systems thinking and solutions that integrate social and economic knowledge with knowledge of the environment. Computer-based technologies are fundamental to our ability to research and understand the relevant sy...

Quantitative trait loci controlling aluminum tolerance in soybean: candidate gene and SNP marker discovery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Aluminum (Al) toxicity is an important abiotic stress that affects soybean production in acidic soils. Development of Al-tolerant cultivars is an efficient and environmentally friendly solution to the problem. Effective selection of Al-tolerant genotypes in applied breeding requires an understanding...

A Recipe for Successful Poster Sessions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hazard, Brenda L.

2007-01-01

Poster sessions are frequently on the menu at professional conferences and meetings. They offer an opportunity to share an idea, a solution, an experiment (successful or failed), or a discovery. Poster sessions tell a short visual story and include a frequently repeated, brief presentation (5-10 minutes), accompanying materials, and informal…

How Users Search the Library from a Single Search Box

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lown, Cory; Sierra, Tito; Boyer, Josh

2013-01-01

Academic libraries are turning increasingly to unified search solutions to simplify search and discovery of library resources. Unfortunately, very little research has been published on library user search behavior in single search box environments. This study examines how users search a large public university library using a prominent, single…

Science Lab: A Peer Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ronca, Courtney C.

The two goals of this program were to increase the number of classroom teachers using the lab and to increase the amount of time that the science lab was used. The solution strategy chosen was a combination of peer tutoring, orientation presentations, small group discovery experiments and activities, and individual science experiment stations. The…

Ontological and Epistemic Claims of Realism and Instrumentalism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lau, Michael Y.

2005-01-01

This article presents comments on "Realism, Instrumentalism, and Scientific Symbiosis: Psychological Theory as a Search for Truth and the Discovery of Solutions" by John T. Cacioppo, Gun R. Semin and Gary G. Berntson. While Lau admires the authors efforts to negotiate symbiosis with seemingly incommensurate realist and instrumentalist positions in…

Application of remote sensing to solution of ecological problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adelman, A.

1972-01-01

The application of remote sensing techniques to solving ecological problems is discussed. The three phases of environmental ecological management are examined. The differences between discovery and exploitation of natural resources and their ecological management are described. The specific application of remote sensing to water management is developed.

New Perspectives on How to Discover Drugs from Herbal Medicines: CAM's Outstanding Contribution to Modern Therapeutics

PubMed Central

Pan, Si-Yuan; Zhou, Shu-Feng; Gao, Si-Hua; Yu, Zhi-Ling; Zhang, Shuo-Feng; Tang, Min-Ke; Sun, Jian-Ning; Han, Yi-Fan; Fong, Wang-Fun; Ko, Kam-Ming

2013-01-01

With tens of thousands of plant species on earth, we are endowed with an enormous wealth of medicinal remedies from Mother Nature. Natural products and their derivatives represent more than 50% of all the drugs in modern therapeutics. Because of the low success rate and huge capital investment need, the research and development of conventional drugs are very costly and difficult. Over the past few decades, researchers have focused on drug discovery from herbal medicines or botanical sources, an important group of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapy. With a long history of herbal usage for the clinical management of a variety of diseases in indigenous cultures, the success rate of developing a new drug from herbal medicinal preparations should, in theory, be higher than that from chemical synthesis. While the endeavor for drug discovery from herbal medicines is “experience driven,” the search for a therapeutically useful synthetic drug, like “looking for a needle in a haystack,” is a daunting task. In this paper, we first illustrated various approaches of drug discovery from herbal medicines. Typical examples of successful drug discovery from botanical sources were given. In addition, problems in drug discovery from herbal medicines were described and possible solutions were proposed. The prospect of drug discovery from herbal medicines in the postgenomic era was made with the provision of future directions in this area of drug development. PMID:23634172

Modeling Uncertainties in EEG Microstates: Analysis of Real and Imagined Motor Movements Using Probabilistic Clustering-Driven Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks.

PubMed

Dinov, Martin; Leech, Robert

2017-01-01

Part of the process of EEG microstate estimation involves clustering EEG channel data at the global field power (GFP) maxima, very commonly using a modified K-means approach. Clustering has also been done deterministically, despite there being uncertainties in multiple stages of the microstate analysis, including the GFP peak definition, the clustering itself and in the post-clustering assignment of microstates back onto the EEG timecourse of interest. We perform a fully probabilistic microstate clustering and labeling, to account for these sources of uncertainty using the closest probabilistic analog to KM called Fuzzy C-means (FCM). We train softmax multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) using the KM and FCM-inferred cluster assignments as target labels, to then allow for probabilistic labeling of the full EEG data instead of the usual correlation-based deterministic microstate label assignment typically used. We assess the merits of the probabilistic analysis vs. the deterministic approaches in EEG data recorded while participants perform real or imagined motor movements from a publicly available data set of 109 subjects. Though FCM group template maps that are almost topographically identical to KM were found, there is considerable uncertainty in the subsequent assignment of microstate labels. In general, imagined motor movements are less predictable on a time point-by-time point basis, possibly reflecting the more exploratory nature of the brain state during imagined, compared to during real motor movements. We find that some relationships may be more evident using FCM than using KM and propose that future microstate analysis should preferably be performed probabilistically rather than deterministically, especially in situations such as with brain computer interfaces, where both training and applying models of microstates need to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic neural network-driven microstate assignment has a number of advantages that we have discussed, which are likely to be further developed and exploited in future studies. In conclusion, probabilistic clustering and a probabilistic neural network-driven approach to microstate analysis is likely to better model and reveal details and the variability hidden in current deterministic and binarized microstate assignment and analyses.

Modeling Uncertainties in EEG Microstates: Analysis of Real and Imagined Motor Movements Using Probabilistic Clustering-Driven Training of Probabilistic Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Dinov, Martin; Leech, Robert

2017-01-01

Part of the process of EEG microstate estimation involves clustering EEG channel data at the global field power (GFP) maxima, very commonly using a modified K-means approach. Clustering has also been done deterministically, despite there being uncertainties in multiple stages of the microstate analysis, including the GFP peak definition, the clustering itself and in the post-clustering assignment of microstates back onto the EEG timecourse of interest. We perform a fully probabilistic microstate clustering and labeling, to account for these sources of uncertainty using the closest probabilistic analog to KM called Fuzzy C-means (FCM). We train softmax multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) using the KM and FCM-inferred cluster assignments as target labels, to then allow for probabilistic labeling of the full EEG data instead of the usual correlation-based deterministic microstate label assignment typically used. We assess the merits of the probabilistic analysis vs. the deterministic approaches in EEG data recorded while participants perform real or imagined motor movements from a publicly available data set of 109 subjects. Though FCM group template maps that are almost topographically identical to KM were found, there is considerable uncertainty in the subsequent assignment of microstate labels. In general, imagined motor movements are less predictable on a time point-by-time point basis, possibly reflecting the more exploratory nature of the brain state during imagined, compared to during real motor movements. We find that some relationships may be more evident using FCM than using KM and propose that future microstate analysis should preferably be performed probabilistically rather than deterministically, especially in situations such as with brain computer interfaces, where both training and applying models of microstates need to account for uncertainty. Probabilistic neural network-driven microstate assignment has a number of advantages that we have discussed, which are likely to be further developed and exploited in future studies. In conclusion, probabilistic clustering and a probabilistic neural network-driven approach to microstate analysis is likely to better model and reveal details and the variability hidden in current deterministic and binarized microstate assignment and analyses. PMID:29163110

Probabilistic homogenization of random composite with ellipsoidal particle reinforcement by the iterative stochastic finite element method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokołowski, Damian; Kamiński, Marcin

2018-01-01

This study proposes a framework for determination of basic probabilistic characteristics of the orthotropic homogenized elastic properties of the periodic composite reinforced with ellipsoidal particles and a high stiffness contrast between the reinforcement and the matrix. Homogenization problem, solved by the Iterative Stochastic Finite Element Method (ISFEM) is implemented according to the stochastic perturbation, Monte Carlo simulation and semi-analytical techniques with the use of cubic Representative Volume Element (RVE) of this composite containing single particle. The given input Gaussian random variable is Young modulus of the matrix, while 3D homogenization scheme is based on numerical determination of the strain energy of the RVE under uniform unit stretches carried out in the FEM system ABAQUS. The entire series of several deterministic solutions with varying Young modulus of the matrix serves for the Weighted Least Squares Method (WLSM) recovery of polynomial response functions finally used in stochastic Taylor expansions inherent for the ISFEM. A numerical example consists of the High Density Polyurethane (HDPU) reinforced with the Carbon Black particle. It is numerically investigated (1) if the resulting homogenized characteristics are also Gaussian and (2) how the uncertainty in matrix Young modulus affects the effective stiffness tensor components and their PDF (Probability Density Function).

75 FR 13610 - Office of New Reactors; Interim Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-22

... Staff Guidance on Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic... Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment,'' (Agencywide Documents.../COL-ISG-020 ``Implementation of a Seismic Margin Analysis for New Reactors Based on Probabilistic Risk...

Judging Words by Their Covers and the Company They Keep: Probabilistic Cues Support Word Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lany, Jill

2014-01-01

Statistical learning may be central to lexical and grammatical development. The phonological and distributional properties of words provide probabilistic cues to their grammatical and semantic properties. Infants can capitalize on such probabilistic cues to learn grammatical patterns in listening tasks. However, infants often struggle to learn…

Fully probabilistic control for stochastic nonlinear control systems with input dependent noise.

PubMed

Herzallah, Randa

2015-03-01

Robust controllers for nonlinear stochastic systems with functional uncertainties can be consistently designed using probabilistic control methods. In this paper a generalised probabilistic controller design for the minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the actual joint probability density function (pdf) of the closed loop control system, and an ideal joint pdf is presented emphasising how the uncertainty can be systematically incorporated in the absence of reliable systems models. To achieve this objective all probabilistic models of the system are estimated from process data using mixture density networks (MDNs) where all the parameters of the estimated pdfs are taken to be state and control input dependent. Based on this dependency of the density parameters on the input values, explicit formulations to the construction of optimal generalised probabilistic controllers are obtained through the techniques of dynamic programming and adaptive critic methods. Using the proposed generalised probabilistic controller, the conditional joint pdfs can be made to follow the ideal ones. A simulation example is used to demonstrate the implementation of the algorithm and encouraging results are obtained. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-01-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Global/local methods for probabilistic structural analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millwater, H. R.; Wu, Y.-T.

1993-04-01

A probabilistic global/local method is proposed to reduce the computational requirements of probabilistic structural analysis. A coarser global model is used for most of the computations with a local more refined model used only at key probabilistic conditions. The global model is used to establish the cumulative distribution function (cdf) and the Most Probable Point (MPP). The local model then uses the predicted MPP to adjust the cdf value. The global/local method is used within the advanced mean value probabilistic algorithm. The local model can be more refined with respect to the g1obal model in terms of finer mesh, smaller time step, tighter tolerances, etc. and can be used with linear or nonlinear models. The basis for this approach is described in terms of the correlation between the global and local models which can be estimated from the global and local MPPs. A numerical example is presented using the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis program with the finite element method used for the structural modeling. The results clearly indicate a significant computer savings with minimal loss in accuracy.

Uncertainty squared: Choosing among multiple input probability distributions and interpreting multiple output probability distributions in Monte Carlo climate risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baer, P.; Mastrandrea, M.

2006-12-01

Simple probabilistic models which attempt to estimate likely transient temperature change from specified CO2 emissions scenarios must make assumptions about at least six uncertain aspects of the causal chain between emissions and temperature: current radiative forcing (including but not limited to aerosols), current land use emissions, carbon sinks, future non-CO2 forcing, ocean heat uptake, and climate sensitivity. Of these, multiple PDFs (probability density functions) have been published for the climate sensitivity, a couple for current forcing and ocean heat uptake, one for future non-CO2 forcing, and none for current land use emissions or carbon cycle uncertainty (which are interdependent). Different assumptions about these parameters, as well as different model structures, will lead to different estimates of likely temperature increase from the same emissions pathway. Thus policymakers will be faced with a range of temperature probability distributions for the same emissions scenarios, each described by a central tendency and spread. Because our conventional understanding of uncertainty and probability requires that a probabilistically defined variable of interest have only a single mean (or median, or modal) value and a well-defined spread, this "multidimensional" uncertainty defies straightforward utilization in policymaking. We suggest that there are no simple solutions to the questions raised. Crucially, we must dispel the notion that there is a "true" probability probabilities of this type are necessarily subjective, and reasonable people may disagree. Indeed, we suggest that what is at stake is precisely the question, what is it reasonable to believe, and to act as if we believe? As a preliminary suggestion, we demonstrate how the output of a simple probabilistic climate model might be evaluated regarding the reasonableness of the outputs it calculates with different input PDFs. We suggest further that where there is insufficient evidence to clearly favor one range of probabilistic projections over another, that the choice of results on which to base policy must necessarily involve ethical considerations, as they have inevitable consequences for the distribution of risk In particular, the choice to use a more "optimistic" PDF for climate sensitivity (or other components of the causal chain) leads to the allowance of higher emissions consistent with any specified goal for risk reduction, and thus leads to higher climate impacts, in exchange for lower mitigation costs.

Informatics for neglected diseases collaborations.

PubMed

Bost, Frederic; Jacobs, Robert T; Kowalczyk, Paul

2010-05-01

Many different public and private organizations from across the globe are collaborating on neglected diseases drug-discovery and development projects with the aim of identifying a cure for tropical infectious diseases. These neglected diseases collaborations require a global, secure, multi-organization data-management solution, combined with a platform that facilitates communication and supports collaborative work. This review discusses the solutions offered by 'Software as a Service' (SaaS) web-based platforms, despite notable challenges, and the evolution of these platforms required to foster efficient virtual research efforts by geographically dispersed scientists.

Project Integration Architecture as a Foundation for Autonomous Solution Systems: The Postulation of a Meaningful "SolveYourself" Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, William Henry

2005-01-01

The Project Integration Architecture (PIA) uses object-oriented technology to implement self-revelation and semantic infusion through class derivation. That is, the kind of an object can be discovered through program inquiry and the well-known, well-defined meaning of that object can be utilized as a result of that discovery. This technology has already been demonstrated by the PIA effort in its parameter object classes. It is proposed that, by building on this technology, an autonomous, automatic, goal-seeking, solution system may be devised.

A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Dose–Response Assessment of Human Health Effects

PubMed Central

Slob, Wout

2015-01-01

Background When chemical health hazards have been identified, probabilistic dose–response assessment (“hazard characterization”) quantifies uncertainty and/or variability in toxicity as a function of human exposure. Existing probabilistic approaches differ for different types of endpoints or modes-of-action, lacking a unifying framework. Objectives We developed a unified framework for probabilistic dose–response assessment. Methods We established a framework based on four principles: a) individual and population dose responses are distinct; b) dose–response relationships for all (including quantal) endpoints can be recast as relating to an underlying continuous measure of response at the individual level; c) for effects relevant to humans, “effect metrics” can be specified to define “toxicologically equivalent” sizes for this underlying individual response; and d) dose–response assessment requires making adjustments and accounting for uncertainty and variability. We then derived a step-by-step probabilistic approach for dose–response assessment of animal toxicology data similar to how nonprobabilistic reference doses are derived, illustrating the approach with example non-cancer and cancer datasets. Results Probabilistically derived exposure limits are based on estimating a “target human dose” (HDMI), which requires risk management–informed choices for the magnitude (M) of individual effect being protected against, the remaining incidence (I) of individuals with effects ≥ M in the population, and the percent confidence. In the example datasets, probabilistically derived 90% confidence intervals for HDMI values span a 40- to 60-fold range, where I = 1% of the population experiences ≥ M = 1%–10% effect sizes. Conclusions Although some implementation challenges remain, this unified probabilistic framework can provide substantially more complete and transparent characterization of chemical hazards and support better-informed risk management decisions. Citation Chiu WA, Slob W. 2015. A unified probabilistic framework for dose–response assessment of human health effects. Environ Health Perspect 123:1241–1254; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409385 PMID:26006063

Diverse ways of perturbing the human arachidonic acid metabolic network to control inflammation.

PubMed

Meng, Hu; Liu, Ying; Lai, Luhua

2015-08-18

Inflammation and other common disorders including diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer are often the result of several molecular abnormalities and are not likely to be resolved by a traditional single-target drug discovery approach. Though inflammation is a normal bodily reaction, uncontrolled and misdirected inflammation can cause inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and asthma. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs including aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen, or celecoxib are commonly used to relieve aches and pains, but often these drugs have undesirable and sometimes even fatal side effects. To facilitate safer and more effective anti-inflammatory drug discovery, a balanced treatment strategy should be developed at the biological network level. In this Account, we focus on our recent progress in modeling the inflammation-related arachidonic acid (AA) metabolic network and subsequent multiple drug design. We first constructed a mathematical model of inflammation based on experimental data and then applied the model to simulate the effects of commonly used anti-inflammatory drugs. Our results indicated that the model correctly reproduced the established bleeding and cardiovascular side effects. Multitarget optimal intervention (MTOI), a Monte Carlo simulated annealing based computational scheme, was then developed to identify key targets and optimal solutions for controlling inflammation. A number of optimal multitarget strategies were discovered that were both effective and safe and had minimal associated side effects. Experimental studies were performed to evaluate these multitarget control solutions further using different combinations of inhibitors to perturb the network. Consequently, simultaneous control of cyclooxygenase-1 and -2 and leukotriene A4 hydrolase, as well as 5-lipoxygenase and prostaglandin E2 synthase were found to be among the best solutions. A single compound that can bind multiple targets presents advantages including low risk of drug-drug interactions and robustness regarding concentration fluctuations. Thus, we developed strategies for multiple-target drug design and successfully discovered several series of multiple-target inhibitors. Optimal solutions for a disease network often involve mild but simultaneous interventions of multiple targets, which is in accord with the philosophy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). To this end, our AA network model can aptly explain TCM anti-inflammatory herbs and formulas at the molecular level. We also aimed to identify activators for several enzymes that appeared to have increased activity based on MTOI outcomes. Strategies were then developed to predict potential allosteric sites and to discover enzyme activators based on our hypothesis that combined treatment with the projected activators and inhibitors could balance different AA network pathways, control inflammation, and reduce associated adverse effects. Our work demonstrates that the integration of network modeling and drug discovery can provide novel solutions for disease control, which also calls for new developments in drug design concepts and methodologies. With the rapid accumulation of quantitative data and knowledge of the molecular networks of disease, we can expect an increase in the development and use of quantitative disease models to facilitate efficient and safe drug discovery.

Probabilistic material degradation model for aerospace materials subjected to high temperature, mechanical and thermal fatigue, and creep

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyce, L.

1992-01-01

A probabilistic general material strength degradation model has been developed for structural components of aerospace propulsion systems subjected to diverse random effects. The model has been implemented in two FORTRAN programs, PROMISS (Probabilistic Material Strength Simulator) and PROMISC (Probabilistic Material Strength Calibrator). PROMISS calculates the random lifetime strength of an aerospace propulsion component due to as many as eighteen diverse random effects. Results are presented in the form of probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions of lifetime strength. PROMISC calibrates the model by calculating the values of empirical material constants.

Probabilistic models of cognition: conceptual foundations.

PubMed

Chater, Nick; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Yuille, Alan

2006-07-01

Remarkable progress in the mathematics and computer science of probability has led to a revolution in the scope of probabilistic models. In particular, 'sophisticated' probabilistic methods apply to structured relational systems such as graphs and grammars, of immediate relevance to the cognitive sciences. This Special Issue outlines progress in this rapidly developing field, which provides a potentially unifying perspective across a wide range of domains and levels of explanation. Here, we introduce the historical and conceptual foundations of the approach, explore how the approach relates to studies of explicit probabilistic reasoning, and give a brief overview of the field as it stands today.

A New Scheme for Probabilistic Teleportation and Its Potential Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jia-Hua; Dai, Hong-Yi; Zhang, Ming

2013-12-01

We propose a novel scheme to probabilistically teleport an unknown two-level quantum state when the information of the partially entangled state is only available for the sender. This is in contrast with the fact that the receiver must know the non-maximally entangled state in previous typical schemes for the teleportation. Additionally, we illustrate two potential applications of the novel scheme for probabilistic teleportation from a sender to a receiver with the help of an assistant, who plays distinct roles under different communication conditions, and our results show that the novel proposal could enlarge the applied range of probabilistic teleportation.

Probabilistic Simulation of Multi-Scale Composite Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, Christos C.

2012-01-01

A methodology is developed to computationally assess the non-deterministic composite response at all composite scales (from micro to structural) due to the uncertainties in the constituent (fiber and matrix) properties, in the fabrication process and in structural variables (primitive variables). The methodology is computationally efficient for simulating the probability distributions of composite behavior, such as material properties, laminate and structural responses. Bi-products of the methodology are probabilistic sensitivities of the composite primitive variables. The methodology has been implemented into the computer codes PICAN (Probabilistic Integrated Composite ANalyzer) and IPACS (Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures). The accuracy and efficiency of this methodology are demonstrated by simulating the uncertainties in composite typical laminates and comparing the results with the Monte Carlo simulation method. Available experimental data of composite laminate behavior at all scales fall within the scatters predicted by PICAN. Multi-scaling is extended to simulate probabilistic thermo-mechanical fatigue and to simulate the probabilistic design of a composite redome in order to illustrate its versatility. Results show that probabilistic fatigue can be simulated for different temperature amplitudes and for different cyclic stress magnitudes. Results also show that laminate configurations can be selected to increase the redome reliability by several orders of magnitude without increasing the laminate thickness--a unique feature of structural composites. The old reference denotes that nothing fundamental has been done since that time.

Query Processing for Probabilistic State Diagrams Describing Multiple Robot Navigation in an Indoor Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Czejdo, Bogdan; Bhattacharya, Sambit; Ferragut, Erik M

2012-01-01

This paper describes the syntax and semantics of multi-level state diagrams to support probabilistic behavior of cooperating robots. The techniques are presented to analyze these diagrams by querying combined robots behaviors. It is shown how to use state abstraction and transition abstraction to create, verify and process large probabilistic state diagrams.

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

Probabilistic Geoacoustic Inversion in Complex Environments Jan Dettmer School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria BC...long-range inversion methods can fail to provide sufficient resolution. For proper quantitative examination of variability, parameter uncertainty must...project aims to advance probabilistic geoacoustic inversion methods for complex ocean environments for a range of geoacoustic data types. The work is

Spatial Reasoning in Tenejapan Mayans

PubMed Central

Li, Peggy; Abarbanell, Linda; Gleitman, Lila; Papafragou, Anna

2011-01-01

Language communities differ in their stock of reference frames (coordinate systems for specifying locations and directions). English typically uses egocentrically defined axes (e.g., “left-right”), especially when describing small-scale relationships. Other languages such as Tseltal Mayan prefer to use geocentrically-defined axes (e.g., “north-south”) and do not use any type of projective body-defined axes. It has been argued that the availability of specific frames of reference in language determines the availability or salience of the corresponding spatial concepts. In four experiments, we explored this hypothesis by testing Tseltal speakers’ spatial reasoning skills. Whereas most prior tasks in this domain were open-ended (allowing several correct solutions), the present tasks required a unique solution that favored adopting a frame of reference that was either congruent or incongruent with what is habitually lexicalized in the participants’ language. In these tasks, Tseltal speakers easily solved the language-incongruent problems, and performance was generally more robust for these than for the language-congruent problems that favored geocentrically-defined coordinates. We suggest thatlisteners’ probabilistic inferences when instruction is open to more than one interpretation account for why there are greater cross-linguistic differences in the solutions to open-ended spatial problems than to less ambiguous ones. PMID:21481854

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing.

PubMed

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models.

A Unified Probabilistic Framework for Dose-Response Assessment of Human Health Effects.

PubMed

Chiu, Weihsueh A; Slob, Wout

2015-12-01

When chemical health hazards have been identified, probabilistic dose-response assessment ("hazard characterization") quantifies uncertainty and/or variability in toxicity as a function of human exposure. Existing probabilistic approaches differ for different types of endpoints or modes-of-action, lacking a unifying framework. We developed a unified framework for probabilistic dose-response assessment. We established a framework based on four principles: a) individual and population dose responses are distinct; b) dose-response relationships for all (including quantal) endpoints can be recast as relating to an underlying continuous measure of response at the individual level; c) for effects relevant to humans, "effect metrics" can be specified to define "toxicologically equivalent" sizes for this underlying individual response; and d) dose-response assessment requires making adjustments and accounting for uncertainty and variability. We then derived a step-by-step probabilistic approach for dose-response assessment of animal toxicology data similar to how nonprobabilistic reference doses are derived, illustrating the approach with example non-cancer and cancer datasets. Probabilistically derived exposure limits are based on estimating a "target human dose" (HDMI), which requires risk management-informed choices for the magnitude (M) of individual effect being protected against, the remaining incidence (I) of individuals with effects ≥ M in the population, and the percent confidence. In the example datasets, probabilistically derived 90% confidence intervals for HDMI values span a 40- to 60-fold range, where I = 1% of the population experiences ≥ M = 1%-10% effect sizes. Although some implementation challenges remain, this unified probabilistic framework can provide substantially more complete and transparent characterization of chemical hazards and support better-informed risk management decisions.

Perception of Risk and Terrorism-Related Behavior Change: Dual Influences of Probabilistic Reasoning and Reality Testing

PubMed Central

Denovan, Andrew; Dagnall, Neil; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2017-01-01

The present study assessed the degree to which probabilistic reasoning performance and thinking style influenced perception of risk and self-reported levels of terrorism-related behavior change. A sample of 263 respondents, recruited via convenience sampling, completed a series of measures comprising probabilistic reasoning tasks (perception of randomness, base rate, probability, and conjunction fallacy), the Reality Testing subscale of the Inventory of Personality Organization (IPO-RT), the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale, and a terrorism-related behavior change scale. Structural equation modeling examined three progressive models. Firstly, the Independence Model assumed that probabilistic reasoning, perception of risk and reality testing independently predicted terrorism-related behavior change. Secondly, the Mediation Model supposed that probabilistic reasoning and reality testing correlated, and indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change through perception of risk. Lastly, the Dual-Influence Model proposed that probabilistic reasoning indirectly predicted terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk, independent of reality testing. Results indicated that performance on probabilistic reasoning tasks most strongly predicted perception of risk, and preference for an intuitive thinking style (measured by the IPO-RT) best explained terrorism-related behavior change. The combination of perception of risk with probabilistic reasoning ability in the Dual-Influence Model enhanced the predictive power of the analytical-rational route, with conjunction fallacy having a significant indirect effect on terrorism-related behavior change via perception of risk. The Dual-Influence Model possessed superior fit and reported similar predictive relations between intuitive-experiential and analytical-rational routes and terrorism-related behavior change. The discussion critically examines these findings in relation to dual-processing frameworks. This includes considering the limitations of current operationalisations and recommendations for future research that align outcomes and subsequent work more closely to specific dual-process models. PMID:29062288

The Search for an Effective Clinical Behavior Analysis: The Nonlinear Thinking of Israel Goldiamond

PubMed Central

Layng, T.V Joe

2009-01-01

This paper has two purposes; the first is to reintroduce Goldiamond's constructional approach to clinical behavior analysis and to the field of behavior analysis as a whole, which, unfortunately, remains largely unaware of his nonlinear functional analysis and its implications. The approach is not simply a set of clinical techniques; instead it describes how basic, applied, and formal analyses may intersect to provide behavior-analytic solutions where the emphasis is on consequential selection. The paper takes the reader through a cumulative series of explorations, discoveries, and insights that hopefully brings the reader into contact with the power and comprehensiveness of Goldiamond's approach, and leads to an investigation of the original works cited. The second purpose is to provide the context of a life of scientific discovery that attempts to elucidate the variables and events that informed one of the most extraordinary scientific journeys in the history of behavior analysis, and expose the reader (especially young ones) to the exciting process of discovery followed by one of the field's most brilliant thinkers. One may perhaps consider this article a tribute to Goldiamond and his work, but the tribute is really to the process of scientific discovery over a professional lifetime. PMID:22478519

Strategies for bringing drug delivery tools into discovery.

PubMed

Kwong, Elizabeth; Higgins, John; Templeton, Allen C

2011-06-30

The past decade has yielded a significant body of literature discussing approaches for development and discovery collaboration in the pharmaceutical industry. As a result, collaborations between discovery groups and development scientists have increased considerably. The productivity of pharma companies to deliver new drugs to the market, however, has not increased and development costs continue to rise. Inability to predict clinical and toxicological response underlies the high attrition rate of leads at every step of drug development. A partial solution to this high attrition rate could be provided by better preclinical pharmacokinetics measurements that inform PD response based on key pathways that drive disease progression and therapeutic response. A critical link between these key pharmacology, pharmacokinetics and toxicology studies is the formulation. The challenges in pre-clinical formulation development include limited availability of compounds, rapid turn-around requirements and the frequent un-optimized physical properties of the lead compounds. Despite these challenges, this paper illustrates some successes resulting from close collaboration between formulation scientists and discovery teams. This close collaboration has resulted in development of formulations that meet biopharmaceutical needs from early stage preclinical in vivo model development through toxicity testing and development risk assessment of pre-clinical drug candidates. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Impact of Guidance during Problem-Solving Prior to Instruction on Students' Inventions and Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loibl, Katharina; Rummel, Nikol

2014-01-01

Multiple studies have shown benefits of problem-solving prior to instruction (cf. Productive Failure, Invention) in comparison to direct instruction. However, students' solutions prior to instruction are usually erroneous or incomplete. In analogy to "guided" discovery learning, it might therefore be fruitful to lead students…

Realism, Instrumentalism, and Scientific Symbiosis: Psychological Theory as a Search for Truth and the Discovery of Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cacioppo, John T.; Semin, Gun R.; Berntson, Gary G.

2004-01-01

Scientific realism holds that scientific theories are approximations of universal truths about reality, whereas scientific instrumentalism posits that scientific theories are intellectual structures that provide adequate predictions of what is observed and useful frameworks for answering questions and solving problems in a given domain. These…

Composite structural materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ansell, G. S.; Loewy, R. G.; Wiberley, S. E.

1982-01-01

Research in the basic composition, characteristics, and processng science of composite materials and their constituents is balanced against the mechanics, conceptual design, fabrication, and testing of generic structural elements typical of aerospace vehicles so as to encourage the discovery of unusual solutions to problems. Detailed descriptions of the progress achieved in the various component parts of his program are presented.

Measuring "c" with an LC Circuit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doran, Patrick; Hawk, William; Siegel, P. B.

2014-01-01

Maxwell's discovery of the relation between electricity, magnetism, and light was one of the most important ones in physics. With his added displacement current term, Maxwell showed that the equations of electricity and magnetism produced a radiation solution, electromagnetic (EM) radiation, that traveled with a speed of c=1/v(e0µ0). The…

Responses of lone star tick (acari: ixodidae) nymphs to the repellent deet applied in acetone and ethanol solutions in vitro bioassays

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Behavioral bioassays remain a standard tool in the discovery, development, and registration of repellents. Although tick repellent bioassays tend to be rather uncomplicated, several factors can influence their outcomes. Typically repellent bioassays use a solvent, such as acetone or ethanol, to disp...

Implementation Science: Understanding and Finding Solutions to Variation in Program Implementation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nordstrum, Lee E.; LeMahieu, Paul G.; Berrena, Elaine

2017-01-01

Purpose: This paper is one of seven in this volume elaborating upon different approaches to quality improvement in education. This paper aims to delineate a methodology called Implementation Science, focusing on methods to enhance the reach, adoption, use and maintenance of innovations and discoveries in diverse education contexts.…

Park Forest Middle School STEM Education Fair 2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hughes, Bill

2010-01-01

Innovations from the United States have often led the world to new discoveries and solutions to complex problems. However, there are alarming indications that the United States is falling behind other countries in the ability to apply science, technology, engineering, and math to complex problems facing our world. In order for the country to…

The Spider and the Fly

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mellinger, Keith E.; Viglione, Raymond

2012-01-01

The Spider and the Fly puzzle, originally attributed to the great puzzler Henry Ernest Dudeney, and now over 100 years old, asks for the shortest path between two points on a particular square prism. We explore a generalization, find that the original solution only holds in certain cases, and suggest how this discovery might be used in the…