Tables of stark level transition probabilities and branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidvar, K.

1980-01-01

The transition probabilities which are given in terms of n prime k prime and n k are tabulated. No additional summing or averaging is necessary. The electric quantum number k plays the role of the angular momentum quantum number l in the presence of an electric field. The branching ratios between stark levels are also tabulated. Necessary formulas for the transition probabilities and branching ratios are given. Symmetries are discussed and selection rules are given. Some disagreements for some branching ratios are found between the present calculation and the measurement of Mark and Wierl. The transition probability multiplied by the statistical weight of the initial state is called the static intensity J sub S, while the branching ratios are called the dynamic intensity J sub D.

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis; Gold, Dara

2013-01-01

We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

When maths trumps logic: probabilistic judgements in chimpanzees.

PubMed

Hanus, Daniel; Call, Josep

2014-12-01

When searching for hidden food, do chimpanzees take into account both the number of hidden items and the number of potential hiding locations? We presented chimpanzees with two trays, each of them containing a different food/cup ratio and therefore a different likelihood of finding a baited cup among empty alternatives. Subjects' performance was directly influenced by the relative difference (probability ratio (PR)) between the two given probabilities. Interestingly, however, they did not appreciate the special value of a truly safe option (with P = 1.0). Instead, they seemed to 'blindly' rely on the PR between the two options, systematically preferring the more likely one once a certain threshold had been reached. A control condition ruled out the possibility of low-level learning explanations for the observed performance. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Can target-to-pons ratio be used as a reliable method for the analysis of [11C]PIB brain scans?

PubMed

Edison, P; Hinz, R; Ramlackhansingh, A; Thomas, J; Gelosa, G; Archer, H A; Turkheimer, F E; Brooks, D J

2012-04-15

(11)C]PIB is the most widely used PET imaging marker for amyloid in dementia studies. In the majority of studies the cerebellum has been used as a reference region. However, cerebellar amyloid may be present in genetic Alzheimer's (AD), cerebral amyloid angiopathy and prion diseases. Therefore, we investigated whether the pons could be used as an alternative reference region for the analysis of [(11)C]PIB binding in AD. The aims of the study were to: 1) Evaluate the pons as a reference region using arterial plasma input function and Logan graphical analysis of binding. 2) Assess the power of target-to-pons ratios to discriminate controls from AD subjects. 3) Determine the test-retest reliability in AD subjects. 4) Demonstrate the application of target-to-pons ratio in subjects with elevated cerebellar [(11)C]PIB binding. 12 sporadic AD subjects aged 65 ± 4.5 yrs with a mean MMSE 21.4 ± 4 and 10 age-matched control subjects had [(11)C]PIB PET with arterial blood sampling. Three additional subjects (two subjects with pre-symptomatic presenilin-1 mutation carriers and one probable familial AD) were also studied. Object maps were created by segmenting individual MRIs and spatially transforming the gray matter images into standard stereotaxic MNI space and then superimposing a probabilistic atlas. Cortical [(11)C]PIB binding was assessed with an ROI (region of interest) analysis. Parametric maps of the volume of distribution (V(T)) were generated with Logan analysis. Additionally, parametric maps of the 60-90 min target-to-cerebellar ratio (RATIO(CER)) and the 60-90 min target-to-pons ratio (RATIO(PONS)) were computed. All three approaches were able to differentiate AD from controls (p<0.0001, nonparametric Wilcoxon rank sum test) in the target regions with RATIO(CER) and RATIO(PONS) differences higher than V(T) with use of an arterial input function. All methods had a good reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient>0.83); RATIO(CER) performed best closely followed by RATIO(PONS). The two subjects with presenilin-1 mutations and the probable familial AD case showed no significant differences in cortical binding using RATIO(CER), but the RATIO(PONS) approach revealed higher [(11)C]PIB binding in cortex and cerebellum. This study established 60-90 min target-to-pons RATIOs as a reliable method of analysis in [(11)C]PIB PET studies where cerebellum is not an appropriate reference region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrimination of Variable Schedules Is Controlled by Interresponse Times Proximal to Reinforcement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanno, Takayuki; Silberberg, Alan; Sakagami, Takayuki

2012-01-01

In Experiment 1, food-deprived rats responded to one of two schedules that were, with equal probability, associated with a sample lever. One schedule was always variable ratio, while the other schedule, depending on the trial within a session, was: (a) a variable-interval schedule; (b) a tandem variable-interval,…

Birth Order and Sibling Sex Ratio in Homosexual Male Adolescents and Probably Prehomosexual Feminine Boys.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanchard, Ray; And Others

1995-01-01

Examined the hypothesis that male homosexuals have a greater than average proportion of male siblings and a later than average birth order, by comparing a group of prehomosexual boys (individuals exhibiting cross-gender behaviors) and homosexual adolescents with a control group. Both predicted results were confirmed. (MDM)

A Computer-Aided Diagnosis System for Breast Cancer Combining Mammography and Proteomics

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

findings in both Data sets C and M. The likelihood ratio is the probability of the features un- der the malignant case divided by the probability of...likelihood ratio value as a classification decision variable, the probabilities of detection and false alarm are calculated as follows: Pdfusion...lowered the fused classifier’s performance to near chance levels. A genetic algorithm searched over the likelihood- ratio thresh- old values for each

Quantifying Uranium Isotope Ratios Using Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry: The Influence of Laser Parameters on Relative Ionization Probability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Isselhardt, Brett H.

2011-09-01

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure relative uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process to provide a distinction between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. We explore the laser parameters critical to the ionization process and their effects on the measured isotope ratio. Specifically, the use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of 235U/ 238U ratios to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. By broadening the bandwidth of the first laser inmore » a 3-color, 3-photon ionization process from a bandwidth of 1.8 GHz to about 10 GHz, the variation in sequential relative isotope abundance measurements decreased from >10% to less than 0.5%. This procedure was demonstrated for the direct interrogation of uranium oxide targets with essentially no sample preparation. A rate equation model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variation in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. This work demonstrates that RIMS can be used for the robust measurement of uranium isotope ratios.« less

Applying quantitative bias analysis to estimate the plausible effects of selection bias in a cluster randomised controlled trial: secondary analysis of the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST).

PubMed

Barnett, L A; Lewis, M; Mallen, C D; Peat, G

2017-12-04

Selection bias is a concern when designing cluster randomised controlled trials (c-RCT). Despite addressing potential issues at the design stage, bias cannot always be eradicated from a trial design. The application of bias analysis presents an important step forward in evaluating whether trial findings are credible. The aim of this paper is to give an example of the technique to quantify potential selection bias in c-RCTs. This analysis uses data from the Primary care Osteoarthritis Screening Trial (POST). The primary aim of this trial was to test whether screening for anxiety and depression, and providing appropriate care for patients consulting their GP with osteoarthritis would improve clinical outcomes. Quantitative bias analysis is a seldom-used technique that can quantify types of bias present in studies. Due to lack of information on the selection probability, probabilistic bias analysis with a range of triangular distributions was also used, applied at all three follow-up time points; 3, 6, and 12 months post consultation. A simple bias analysis was also applied to the study. Worse pain outcomes were observed among intervention participants than control participants (crude odds ratio at 3, 6, and 12 months: 1.30 (95% CI 1.01, 1.67), 1.39 (1.07, 1.80), and 1.17 (95% CI 0.90, 1.53), respectively). Probabilistic bias analysis suggested that the observed effect became statistically non-significant if the selection probability ratio was between 1.2 and 1.4. Selection probability ratios of > 1.8 were needed to mask a statistically significant benefit of the intervention. The use of probabilistic bias analysis in this c-RCT suggested that worse outcomes observed in the intervention arm could plausibly be attributed to selection bias. A very large degree of selection of bias was needed to mask a beneficial effect of intervention making this interpretation less plausible.

12 CFR 700.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... that the facts that caused the deficient share-asset ratio no longer exist; and (ii) The likelihood of further depreciation of the share-asset ratio is not probable; and (iii) The return of the share-asset ratio to its normal limits within a reasonable time for the credit union concerned is probable; and (iv...

Updating the Economic Impacts of the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nores, Milagros; Belfield, Clive R.; Barnett, W. Steven; Schweinhart, Lawrence

2005-01-01

This article derives an updated cost-benefit ratio for the High/Scope Perry Preschool Program, an intensive preschool intervention delivered during the 1960s to at-risk children in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Because children were randomly assigned to the program or a control group, differences in outcomes are probably attributable to program status.…

The Probability of Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome as a Function of Gestational Age and Lecithin/Sphingomyelin Ratio

PubMed Central

St. Clair, Caryn; Norwitz, Errol R.; Woensdregt, Karlijn; Cackovic, Michael; Shaw, Julia A.; Malkus, Herbert; Ehrenkranz, Richard A.; Illuzzi, Jessica L.

2011-01-01

We sought to define the risk of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) as a function of both lecithin/sphingomyelin (L/S) ratio and gestational age. Amniotic fluid L/S ratio data were collected from consecutive women undergoing amniocentesis for fetal lung maturity at Yale-New Haven Hospital from January 1998 to December 2004. Women were included in the study if they delivered a live-born, singleton, nonanomalous infant within 72 hours of amniocentesis. The probability of RDS was modeled using multivariate logistic regression with L/S ratio and gestational age as predictors. A total of 210 mother-neonate pairs (8 RDS, 202 non-RDS) met criteria for analysis. Both gestational age and L/S ratio were independent predictors of RDS. A probability of RDS of 3% or less was noted at an L/S ratio cutoff of ≥3.4 at 34 weeks, ≥2.6 at 36 weeks, ≥1.6 at 38 weeks, and ≥1.2 at term. Under 34 weeks of gestation, the prevalence of RDS was so high that a probability of 3% or less was not observed by this model. These data describe a means of stratifying the probability of neonatal RDS using both gestational age and the L/S ratio and may aid in clinical decision making concerning the timing of delivery. PMID:18773379

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: a comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA (2002-2005).

PubMed

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T; Chaloupka, Frank J; Li, Qiang

2014-03-01

Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This article investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes versus premium brands. To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers' choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Using data from International Tobacco Control surveys in Canada and the USA, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the USA. The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the USA during 2002-2005 and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands-which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax-may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes.

Simple Physical Model for the Probability of a Subduction- Zone Earthquake Following Slow Slip Events and Earthquakes: Application to the Hikurangi Megathrust, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, Yoshihiro; Wallace, Laura M.; Hamling, Ian J.; Gerstenberger, Matthew C.

2018-05-01

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been documented in subduction zones worldwide, yet their implications for future earthquake occurrence are not well understood. Here we develop a relatively simple, simulation-based method for estimating the probability of megathrust earthquakes following tectonic events that induce any transient stress perturbations. This method has been applied to the locked Hikurangi megathrust (New Zealand) surrounded on all sides by the 2016 Kaikoura earthquake and SSEs. Our models indicate the annual probability of a M≥7.8 earthquake over 1 year after the Kaikoura earthquake increases by 1.3-18 times relative to the pre-Kaikoura probability, and the absolute probability is in the range of 0.6-7%. We find that probabilities of a large earthquake are mainly controlled by the ratio of the total stressing rate induced by all nearby tectonic sources to the mean stress drop of earthquakes. Our method can be applied to evaluate the potential for triggering a megathrust earthquake following SSEs in other subduction zones.

Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

PubMed

Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

2012-02-01

The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

The Sequential Probability Ratio Test and Binary Item Response Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nydick, Steven W.

2014-01-01

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is a common method for terminating item response theory (IRT)-based adaptive classification tests. To decide whether a classification test should stop, the SPRT compares a simple log-likelihood ratio, based on the classification bound separating two categories, to prespecified critical values. As has…

Relationship between the presence of baccalaureate-educated RNs and quality of care: a cross-sectional study in Dutch long-term care facilities.

PubMed

Backhaus, Ramona; van Rossum, Erik; Verbeek, Hilde; Halfens, Ruud J G; Tan, Frans E S; Capezuti, Elizabeth; Hamers, Jan P H

2017-01-19

Recent evidence suggests that an increase in baccalaureate-educated registered nurses (BRNs) leads to better quality of care in hospitals. For geriatric long-term care facilities such as nursing homes, this relationship is less clear. Most studies assessing the relationship between nurse staffing and quality of care in long-term care facilities are US-based, and only a few have focused on the unique contribution of registered nurses. In this study, we focus on BRNs, as they are expected to serve as role models and change agents, while little is known about their unique contribution to quality of care in long-term care facilities. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 282 wards and 6,145 residents from 95 Dutch long-term care facilities. The relationship between the presence of BRNs in wards and quality of care was assessed, controlling for background characteristics, i.e. ward size, and residents' age, gender, length of stay, comorbidities, and care dependency status. Multilevel logistic regression analyses, using a generalized estimating equation approach, were performed. 57% of the wards employed BRNs. In these wards, the BRNs delivered on average 4.8 min of care per resident per day. Among residents living in somatic wards that employed BRNs, the probability of experiencing a fall (odds ratio 1.44; 95% CI 1.06-1.96) and receiving antipsychotic drugs (odds ratio 2.15; 95% CI 1.66-2.78) was higher, whereas the probability of having an indwelling urinary catheter was lower (odds ratio 0.70; 95% CI 0.53-0.91). Among residents living in psychogeriatric wards that employed BRNs, the probability of experiencing a medication incident was lower (odds ratio 0.68; 95% CI 0.49-0.95). For residents from both ward types, the probability of suffering from nosocomial pressure ulcers did not significantly differ for residents in wards employing BRNs. In wards that employed BRNs, their mean amount of time spent per resident was low, while quality of care on most wards was acceptable. No consistent evidence was found for a relationship between the presence of BRNs in wards and quality of care outcomes, controlling for background characteristics. Future studies should consider the mediating and moderating role of staffing-related work processes and ward environment characteristics on quality of care.

Case−Control Study of Risk Factors for Meningococcal Disease in Chile

PubMed Central

Matute, Isabel; González, Claudia; Delgado, Iris; Poffald, Lucy; Pedroni, Elena; Alfaro, Tania; Hirmas, Macarena; Nájera, Manuel; Gormaz, Ana; López, Darío; Loayza, Sergio; Ferreccio, Catterina; Gallegos, Doris; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Vial, Pablo; Aguilera, Ximena

2017-01-01

An outbreak of meningococcal disease with a case-fatality rate of 30% and caused by predominantly serogroup W of Neisseria meningitidis began in Chile in 2012. This outbreak required a case−control study to assess determinants and risk factors for infection. We identified confirmed cases during January 2012−March 2013 and selected controls by random sampling of the population, matched for age and sex, resulting in 135 case-patients and 618 controls. Sociodemographic variables, habits, and previous illnesses were studied. Analyses yielded adjusted odds ratios as estimators of the probability of disease development. Results indicated that conditions of social vulnerability, such as low income and overcrowding, as well as familial history of this disease and clinical histories, especially chronic diseases and hospitalization for respiratory conditions, increased the probability of illness. Findings should contribute to direction of intersectoral public policies toward a highly vulnerable social group to enable them to improve their living conditions and health. PMID:28628448

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, James R.; Markley, F Landis

2014-01-01

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Using effort information with change-in-ratio data for population estimation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1995-01-01

Most change-in-ratio (CIR) methods for estimating fish and wildlife population sizes have been based only on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary among population subclasses. When information on sampling effort is available, it is also possible to derive CIR estimators based on assumptions about how encounter probabilities vary over time. This paper presents a generalization of previous CIR models that allows explicit consideration of a range of assumptions about the variation of encounter probabilities among subclasses and over time. Explicit estimators are derived under this model for specific sets of assumptions about the encounter probabilities. Numerical methods are presented for obtaining estimators under the full range of possible assumptions. Likelihood ratio tests for these assumptions are described. Emphasis is on obtaining estimators based on assumptions about variation of encounter probabilities over time.

Comparison of sticking probabilities of metal atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CuZnSnS films

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, K.; Kikuchi, S.

2014-10-01

In this work, we compared the sticking probabilities of Cu, Zn, and Sn atoms in magnetron sputtering deposition of CZTS films. The evaluations of the sticking probabilities were based on the temporal decays of the Cu, Zn, and Sn densities in the afterglow, which were measured by laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy. Linear relationships were found between the discharge pressure and the lifetimes of the atom densities. According to Chantry, the sticking probability is evaluated from the extrapolated lifetime at the zero pressure, which is given by 2l0 (2 - α) / (v α) with α, l0, and v being the sticking probability, the ratio between the volume and the surface area of the chamber, and the mean velocity, respectively. The ratio of the extrapolated lifetimes observed experimentally was τCu :τSn :τZn = 1 : 1 . 3 : 1 . This ratio coincides well with the ratio of the reciprocals of their mean velocities (1 /vCu : 1 /vSn : 1 /vZn = 1 . 00 : 1 . 37 : 1 . 01). Therefore, the present experimental result suggests that the sticking probabilities of Cu, Sn, and Zn are roughly the same.

Statistics provide guidance for indigenous organic carbon detection on Mars missions.

PubMed

Sephton, Mark A; Carter, Jonathan N

2014-08-01

Data from the Viking and Mars Science Laboratory missions indicate the presence of organic compounds that are not definitively martian in origin. Both contamination and confounding mineralogies have been suggested as alternatives to indigenous organic carbon. Intuitive thought suggests that we are repeatedly obtaining data that confirms the same level of uncertainty. Bayesian statistics may suggest otherwise. If an organic detection method has a true positive to false positive ratio greater than one, then repeated organic matter detection progressively increases the probability of indigeneity. Bayesian statistics also reveal that methods with higher ratios of true positives to false positives give higher overall probabilities and that detection of organic matter in a sample with a higher prior probability of indigenous organic carbon produces greater confidence. Bayesian statistics, therefore, provide guidance for the planning and operation of organic carbon detection activities on Mars. Suggestions for future organic carbon detection missions and instruments are as follows: (i) On Earth, instruments should be tested with analog samples of known organic content to determine their true positive to false positive ratios. (ii) On the mission, for an instrument with a true positive to false positive ratio above one, it should be recognized that each positive detection of organic carbon will result in a progressive increase in the probability of indigenous organic carbon being present; repeated measurements, therefore, can overcome some of the deficiencies of a less-than-definitive test. (iii) For a fixed number of analyses, the highest true positive to false positive ratio method or instrument will provide the greatest probability that indigenous organic carbon is present. (iv) On Mars, analyses should concentrate on samples with highest prior probability of indigenous organic carbon; intuitive desires to contrast samples of high prior probability and low prior probability of indigenous organic carbon should be resisted.

Lead isotope ratios in bone ash of blesbok (Damaliscus pygargus phillipsi): a means of screening for the accumulation of contaminants from uraniferous rocks.

PubMed

Nöthling, Johan O; Du Toit, Johannes S; Myburgh, Jan G

2014-09-19

This study was done to determine whether blesbok (Damaliscus pygargus phillipsi) from the Krugersdorp Game Reserve (KGR) in Gauteng Province, South Africa have higher concentrations of (238)U and higher (206)Pb/(204)Pb and (207)Pb/(204)Pb ratios in their bone ash than blesbok from a nearby control reserve that is not exposed to mine water and has no outcrops of uraniferous rocks. Eight blesbok females from the KGR and seven from the control site, all killed with a brain shot, were used. A Thermo X-series 2 quadrupole ICPMS was used to measure the concentrations of (238)U and lead and a Nu Instruments NuPlasma HR MC-ICP-MS to measure the lead isotope ratios in the tibial ash from each animal. KGR blesbok had higher mean concentrations of (238)U (P = 0.02) and ratios of (206)Pb/(204)Pb and (207)Pb/(204)Pb (P < 0.00001) than the control blesbok. The probability of rejecting the false null hypothesis of no difference in the (206)Pb/(204)Pb or (207)Pb/(204)Pb ratios between KGR and control reserve animals (the power of the test) was 0.999. The blesbok from the KGR accumulated contaminants from an uraniferous environment. The (206)Pb/(204)Pb and (207)Pb/(204)Pb ratios in tibial ash proved effective in confirming accumulation of contaminants from uraniferous rocks.

Health Professionals Prefer to Communicate Risk-Related Numerical Information Using "1-in-X" Ratios.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Juanchich, Marie; Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Walasek, Lukasz; Bhatia, Sudeep

2018-04-01

Previous research has shown that format effects, such as the "1-in-X" effect-whereby "1-in-X" ratios lead to a higher perceived probability than "N-in-N*X" ratios-alter perceptions of medical probabilities. We do not know, however, how prevalent this effect is in practice; i.e., how often health professionals use the "1-in-X" ratio. We assembled 4 different sources of evidence, involving experimental work and corpus studies, to examine the use of "1-in-X" and other numerical formats quantifying probability. Our results revealed that the use of the "1-in-X" ratio is prevalent and that health professionals prefer this format compared with other numerical formats (i.e., the "N-in-N*X", %, and decimal formats). In Study 1, UK family physicians preferred to communicate prenatal risk using a "1-in-X" ratio (80.4%, n = 131) across different risk levels and regardless of patients' numeracy levels. In Study 2, a sample from the UK adult population ( n = 203) reported that most GPs (60.6%) preferred to use "1-in-X" ratios compared with other formats. In Study 3, "1-in-X" ratios were the most commonly used format in a set of randomly sampled drug leaflets describing the risk of side effects (100%, n = 94). In Study 4, the "1-in-X" format was the most commonly used numerical expression of medical probabilities or frequencies on the UK's NHS website (45.7%, n = 2,469 sentences). The prevalent use of "1-in-X" ratios magnifies the chances of increased subjective probability. Further research should establish clinical significance of the "1-in-X" effect.

Distributed Immune Systems for Wireless Network Information Assurance

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-26

ratio test (SPRT), where the goal is to optimize a hypothesis testing problem given a trade-off between the probability of errors and the...using cumulative sum (CUSUM) and Girshik-Rubin-Shiryaev (GRSh) statistics. In sequential versions of the problem the sequential probability ratio ...the more complicated problems, in particular those where no clear mean can be established. We developed algorithms based on the sequential probability

Characterizing cardiac dysfunction in fetuses with left congenital diaphragmatic hernia.

PubMed

Cruz-Lemini, Mónica; Valenzuela-Alcaraz, Brenda; Granados-Montiel, Julio; Martínez, Josep M; Crispi, Fátima; Gratacós, Eduard; Cruz-Martínez, Rogelio

2018-03-23

To evaluate cardiac function by conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler imaging in fetuses with left congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Conventional echocardiography (myocardial performance index, ventricular filling velocities, and E/A ratios) and tissue Doppler imaging (annular myocardial peak velocities, E/E' and E'/A' ratios) in mitral, septal, and tricuspid annulus were evaluated in a cohort of 31 left-sided CDH fetuses and compared with 75 controls matched for gestational age 2:1. In comparison to controls, CDH fetuses had prolonged isovolumetric time periods (isovolumetric contraction time 35 ms vs 28 ms, P < .001), with higher myocardial performance index (0.49 vs 0.42, P < .001) and tricuspid E/A ratios (0.77 vs 0.72, P = .033). Longitudinal function assessed by tissue Doppler showed signs of impaired relaxation (mitral lateral A' 8.0 vs 10.1 cm/s, P < .001 and an increased mitral lateral E'/A' ratio 0.93 vs 0.78, P < .001) in the CDH fetuses as compared with controls, with preserved systolic function. Left CDH fetuses show echocardiographic signs of diastolic dysfunction, probably secondary to fetal heart compression, maintaining a preserved systolic function. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of aggregating exposure information from cases and controls when building a population-based job-exposure matrix from past expert evaluations.

PubMed

Kirkham, Tracy L; Siemiatycki, Jack; Labrèche, France; Lavoué, Jérôme

2016-07-01

To assess whether the inclusion of data from cases would bias a job-exposure matrix (JEM), we evaluated whether exposures were systematically different between cases and controls from a large historical case-control study. Data included 10 381 jobs assessed for occupational exposure to 294 agents within a lung cancer case-control study. For each sex, 1 JEM was developed from case jobs, and 1 from control jobs: with occupation (four-digit occupational codes), time period (1945-1959, 1960-1984, 1985-1995) and agent axes. We estimated concordance in exposure status (defined as probability of exposure threshold ≥5%) and exposure metrics of probability and intensity of exposure, between the 2 JEMs. Of all hypothetical occupation-period-agent combinations, most had no or few observations. Among males there were 8136 common cells (24-occupational codes, 3-periods, 226-agents), containing sufficient observations for comparison with 92% concordance in exposure status; discordance was equally likely to be towards cases or controls. Females had 1710 common cells (9-occupational codes, 3-periods, 114-agents) with 93% concordance in exposure status; discordant cells were more likely to reflect greater exposure among cases. Among concordantly exposed cells, probability and intensity of exposures were highly correlated between the case JEM and control JEM (Kendall τ>0.50), and absolute differences were small (median difference in probability <1.5%, median ratio in intensity=1.00) for both sexes. Agreement between the case JEM and control JEM was high, suggesting that aggregating the case and control information in our study into a single JEM is justifiable given the benefits of increased sample size. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Brick tunnel randomization and the momentum of the probability mass.

PubMed

Kuznetsova, Olga M

2015-12-30

The allocation space of an unequal-allocation permuted block randomization can be quite wide. The development of unequal-allocation procedures with a narrower allocation space, however, is complicated by the need to preserve the unconditional allocation ratio at every step (the allocation ratio preserving (ARP) property). When the allocation paths are depicted on the K-dimensional unitary grid, where allocation to the l-th treatment is represented by a step along the l-th axis, l = 1 to K, the ARP property can be expressed in terms of the center of the probability mass after i allocations. Specifically, for an ARP allocation procedure that randomizes subjects to K treatment groups in w1 :⋯:wK ratio, w1 +⋯+wK =1, the coordinates of the center of the mass are (w1 i,…,wK i). In this paper, the momentum with respect to the center of the probability mass (expected imbalance in treatment assignments) is used to compare ARP procedures in how closely they approximate the target allocation ratio. It is shown that the two-arm and three-arm brick tunnel randomizations (BTR) are the ARP allocation procedures with the tightest allocation space among all allocation procedures with the same allocation ratio; the two-arm BTR is the minimum-momentum two-arm ARP allocation procedure. Resident probabilities of two-arm and three-arm BTR are analytically derived from the coordinates of the center of the probability mass; the existence of the respective transition probabilities is proven. Probability of deterministic assignments with BTR is found generally acceptable. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Boron nitride nanotube-mediated stimulation modulates F/G-actin ratio and mechanical properties of human dermal fibroblasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricotti, Leonardo; das Neves, Ricardo Pires; Ciofani, Gianni; Canale, Claudio; Nitti, Simone; Mattoli, Virgilio; Mazzolai, Barbara; Ferreira, Lino; Menciassi, Arianna

2014-02-01

F/G-actin ratio modulation is known to have an important role in many cell functions and in the regulation of specific cell behaviors. Several attempts have been made in the latest decades to finely control actin production and polymerization, in order to promote certain cell responses. In this paper we demonstrate the possibility of modulating F/G-actin ratio and mechanical properties of normal human dermal fibroblasts by using boron nitride nanotubes dispersed in the culture medium and by stimulating them with ultrasound transducers. Increasing concentrations of nanotubes were tested with the cells, without any evidence of cytotoxicity up to 10 μg/ml concentration of nanoparticles. Cells treated with nanoparticles and ultrasound stimulation showed a significantly higher F/G-actin ratio in comparison with the controls, as well as a higher Young's modulus. Assessment of Cdc42 activity revealed that actin nucleation/polymerization pathways, involving Rho GTPases, are probably influenced by nanotube-mediated stimulation, but they do not play a primary role in the significant increase of F/G-actin ratio of treated cells, such effect being mainly due to actin overexpression.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marleau, Peter; Monterial, Mateusz; Clarke, Shaun

A Bayesian approach is proposed for pulse shape discrimination of photons and neutrons in liquid organic scinitillators. Instead of drawing a decision boundary, each pulse is assigned a photon or neutron confidence probability. In addition, this allows for photon and neutron classification on an event-by-event basis. The sum of those confidence probabilities is used to estimate the number of photon and neutron instances in the data. An iterative scheme, similar to an expectation-maximization algorithm for Gaussian mixtures, is used to infer the ratio of photons-to-neutrons in each measurement. Therefore, the probability space adapts to data with varying photon-to-neutron ratios. Amore » time-correlated measurement of Am–Be and separate measurements of 137Cs, 60Co and 232Th photon sources were used to construct libraries of neutrons and photons. These libraries were then used to produce synthetic data sets with varying ratios of photons-to-neutrons. Probability weighted method that we implemented was found to maintain neutron acceptance rate of up to 90% up to photon-to-neutron ratio of 2000, and performed 9% better than the decision boundary approach. Furthermore, the iterative approach appropriately changed the probability space with an increasing number of photons which kept the neutron population estimate from unrealistically increasing.« less

Recent Results with CVD Diamond Trackers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adam, W.; Bauer, C.; Berdermann, E.; Bergonzo, P.; Bogani, F.; Borchi, E.; Brambilla, A.; Bruzzi, M.; Colledani, C.; Conway, J.; Dabrowski, W.; Delpierre, P.; Deneuville, A.; Dulinski, W.; van Eijk, B.; Fallou, A.; Fizzotti, F.; Foulon, F.; Friedl, M.; Gan, K. K.; Gheeraert, E.; Grigoriev, E.; Hallewell, G.; Hall-Wilton, R.; Han, S.; Hartjes, F.; Hrubec, J.; Husson, D.; Kagan, H.; Kania, D.; Kaplon, J.; Karl, C.; Kass, R.; Knöpfle, K. T.; Krammer, M.; Logiudice, A.; Lu, R.; Manfredi, P. F.; Manfredotti, C.; Marshall, R. D.; Meier, D.; Mishina, M.; Oh, A.; Pan, L. S.; Palmieri, V. G.; Pernicka, M.; Peitz, A.; Pirollo, S.; Polesello, P.; Pretzl, K.; Procario, M.; Re, V.; Riester, J. L.; Roe, S.; Roff, D.; Rudge, A.; Runolfsson, O.; Russ, J.; Schnetzer, S.; Sciortino, S.; Speziali, V.; Stelzer, H.; Stone, R.; Suter, B.; Tapper, R. J.; Tesarek, R.; Trawick, M.; Trischuk, W.; Vittone, E.; Walsh, A. M.; Wedenig, R.; Weilhammer, P.; White, C.; Ziock, H.; Zoeller, M.; RD42 Collaboration

1999-08-01

We present recent results on the use of Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) diamond microstrip detectors for charged particle tracking. A series of detectors was fabricated using 1 x 1 cm 2 diamonds. Good signal-to-noise ratios were observed using both slow and fast readout electronics. For slow readout electronics, 2 μs shaping time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 50 to 1. For fast readout electronics, 25 ns peaking time, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 7 to 1. Using the first 2 x 4 cm 2 diamond from a production CVD reactor with slow readout electronics, the most probable signal-to-noise ratio was 23 to 1. The spatial resolution achieved for the detectors was consistent with the digital resolution expected from the detector pitch.

Reduced NAA in motor and non-motor brain regions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a cross-sectional and longitudinal study.

PubMed

Rule, R R; Suhy, J; Schuff, N; Gelinas, D F; Miller, R G; Weiner, M W

2004-09-01

After replication of previous findings we aimed to: 1) determine if previously reported (1)H MRSI differences between ALS patients and control subjects are limited to the motor cortex; and 2) determine the longitudinal metabolic changes corresponding to varying levels of diagnostic certainty. Twenty-one patients with possible/suspected ALS, 24 patients with probable/definite ALS and 17 control subjects underwent multislice (1)H MRSI co-registered with tissue-segmented MRI to obtain concentrations of the brain metabolites N-acetylaspartate (NAA), creatine, and choline in the left and right motor cortex and in gray matter and white matter of non-motor regions in the brain. In the more affected hemisphere, reductions in the ratios, NAA/Cho and NAA/Cre+Cho were observed both within (12.6% and 9.5% respectively) and outside (9.2% and 7.3% respectively) the motor cortex in probable/definite ALS. However, these reductions were significantly greater within the motor cortex (P<0.05 for NAA/Cho and P<0.005 for NAA/Cre+Cho). Longitudinal changes in NAA were observed at three months within the motor cortex of both possible/suspected ALS patients (P<0.005) and at nine months outside the motor cortex of probable/definite patients (P<0.005). However, there was no clear pattern of progressive change over time. NAA ratios are reduced in the motor cortex and outside the motor cortex in ALS, suggesting widespread neuronal injury. Longitudinal changes of NAA are not reliable, suggesting that NAA may not be a useful surrogate marker for treatment trials.

Association between Allergic Rhinitis and Asthma Control in Peruvian School Children: A Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Uceda, Mónica; Ziegler, Otto; Lindo, Felipe; Herrera-Pérez, Eder

2013-01-01

Background. Asthma and allergic rhinitis are highly prevalent conditions that cause major illness worldwide. This study aimed to assess the association between allergic rhinitis and asthma control in Peruvian school children. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 256 children with asthma recruited in 5 schools from Lima and Callao cities. The outcome was asthma control assessed by the asthma control test. A score test for trend of odds was used to evaluate the association between allergic rhinitis severity and the prevalence of inadequate asthma control. A generalized linear regression model was used to estimate the adjusted prevalence ratios of inadequate asthma control. Results. Allergic rhinitis was present in 66.4% of the population with asthma. The trend analysis showed a positive association between allergic rhinitis and the probability of inadequate asthma control (P < 0.001). It was associated with an increased prevalence of inadequate asthma control, with adjusted prevalence ratios of 1.53 (95% confidence interval: 1.19−1.98). Conclusion. This study indicates that allergic rhinitis is associated with an inadequate level of asthma control, giving support to the recommendation of evaluating rhinitis to improve asthma control in children. PMID:23984414

Habit control of deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate crystal for laser applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, L. A.; Suzuki, M.; Fujimoto, Y.; Fujioka, K.

2016-03-01

In this study we investigate the habit of partially deuterated potassium dihydrogen phosphate (DKDP) crystals in the presence of Al3+ ions. We have grown single DKDP crystals in (50wt% and 80wt%) partially deuterated solutions and in solutions doped with Al3+ ions (2 ppm) by the point-seed rapid growth technique at controlled supercooling (ΔT=10°C). The growth length of each crystal face was measured and the aspect ratio was calculated. We found that crystals grown in partially deuterated solutions are similar in aspect ratio, while, crystals grown in deuterated solutions doped with Al3+ ions showed a relative change in aspect ratio, the crystal increased in size in the pyramidal direction (vertical axis direction). Crystal characteristics were also analyzed by X-ray diffraction, FTIR and Raman spectroscopy. We have speculated that the relative habit modification is due to a probably adsorption and inclusions of Al3+ ions in the prismatic section of the crystal.

Definition and Measurement of Selection Bias: From Constant Ratio to Constant Difference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cahan, Sorel; Gamliel, Eyal

2006-01-01

Despite its intuitive appeal and popularity, Thorndike's constant ratio (CR) model for unbiased selection is inherently inconsistent in "n"-free selection. Satisfaction of the condition for unbiased selection, when formulated in terms of success/acceptance probabilities, usually precludes satisfaction by the converse probabilities of…

Pharmacodynamic analysis of ceftriaxone, gatifloxacin,and levofloxacin against Streptococcus pneumoniae with the use of Monte Carlo simulation.

PubMed

Frei, Christopher R; Burgess, David S

2005-09-01

To evaluate the pharmacodynamics of four intravenous antimicrobial regimens-ceftriaxone 1 g, gatifloxacin 400 mg, levofloxacin 500 mg, and levofloxacin 750 mg, each every 24 hours-against recent Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates. Pharmacodynamic analysis using Monte Carlo simulation. The Surveillance Network (TSN) 2002 database. Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates (7866 isolates) were stratified according to penicillin susceptibilities as follows: susceptible (4593), intermediate (1986), and resistant (1287). Risk analysis software was used to simulate 10,000 patients by integrating published pharmacokinetic parameters, their variability, and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) distributions from the TSN database. Probability of target attainment was determined for percentage of time above the MIC (%T > MIC) from 0-100% for ceftriaxone and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC):MIC ratio from 0-150 for the fluoroquinolones. For ceftriaxone, probability of target attainment remained 90% or greater against the three isolate groups until a %T > MIC of 70% or greater, and it remained 90% or greater against susceptible and intermediate isolates over the entire interval (%T > MIC 0-100%). For levofloxacin 500 mg, probability of target attainment was 90% at an AUC:MIC < or = 30, but the curve declined sharply with further increases in pharmacodynamic target. Levofloxacin 750 mg achieved a probability of target attainment of 99% at an AUC:MIC ratio < or = 30; the probability remained approximately 90% until a target of 70 or greater, when it declined steeply. Gatifloxacin demonstrated a high probability (99%) of target attainment at an AUC:MIC ratio < or = 30, and it remained above 90% until a target of 70. Ceftriaxone maintained high probability of target attainment over a broad range of pharmacodynamic targets regardless of penicillin susceptibility (%T > MIC 0-60%). Levofloxacin 500 mg maintained high probability of target attainment for AUC:MIC ratios 0-30; whereas, levofloxacin 750 mg and gatifloxacin maintained high probability of target attainment for AUC:MIC ratios 0-60. Rate of decline in the pharmacodynamic curve was most pronounced for the two levofloxacin regimens and more gradual for gatifloxacin and ceftriaxone.

K β to K α X-ray intensity ratios and K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities of Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anand, L. F. M.; Gudennavar, S. B.; Bubbly, S. G.; Kerur, B. R.

2015-12-01

The K to L shell total vacancy transfer probabilities of low Z elements Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn are estimated by measuring the K β to K α intensity ratio adopting the 2π-geometry. The target elements were excited by 32.86 keV barium K-shell X-rays from a weak 137Cs γ-ray source. The emitted K-shell X-rays were detected using a low energy HPGe X-ray detector coupled to a 16 k MCA. The measured intensity ratios and the total vacancy transfer probabilities are compared with theoretical results and others' work, establishing a good agreement.

Single voxel magnetic resonance spectroscopy at 3 Tesla in a memory disorders clinic: early right hippocampal NAA/Cr loss in mildly impaired subjects.

PubMed

Caserta, Maria T; Ragin, Ann; Hermida, Adriana P; Ahrens, R John; Wise, Leon

2008-11-30

In this study, we use magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) at 3 Tesla to measure N-acetyl aspartate (NAA), myo-inositol (mI) and choline (Cho) to creatine (Cr) ratios in R (right) and L (left) hippocampi (H) in 8 mildly memory impaired (MMI), 6 probable Alzheimer's Disease (PRAD), and 17 control subjects. NAA/Cr was significantly reduced in the RH in the MMI group and bilaterally in the PRAD group vs. controls. No other metabolite differences were noted between the three groups. Five MMI subjects have converted to PRAD in follow-up. These findings suggest that RH NAA/Cr ratios measured at 3 Tesla may be a sensitive marker of future progression to dementia in a clinically defined population with isolated memory complaints.

Effect of Donor and Recipient Factors on Corneal Graft Rejection

PubMed Central

Stulting, R. Doyle; Sugar, Alan; Beck, Roy; Belin, Michael; Dontchev, Mariya; Feder, Robert S.; Gal, Robin L.; Holland, Edward J.; Kollman, Craig; Mannis, Mark J.; Price, Francis; Stark, Walter; Verdier, David D.

2014-01-01

Purpose To assess the relationship between donor and recipient factors and corneal allograft rejection in eyes that underwent penetrating keratoplasty (PK) in the Cornea Donor Study. Methods 1090 subjects undergoing corneal transplantation for a moderate risk condition (principally Fuchs’ dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema) were followed for up to 5 years. Associations of baseline recipient and donor factors with the occurrence of a probable or definite rejection event were assessed in univariate and multivariate proportional hazards models. Results Eyes with pseudophakic or aphakic corneal edema (N=369) were more likely to experience a rejection event than eyes with Fuchs’ dystrophy (N=676) (34% ± 6% versus 22% ± 4%; hazard ratio = 1.56; 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 2.03). Among eyes with Fuchs’dystrophy, a higher probability of a rejection event was observed in phakic post-transplant eyes compared with eyes that underwent cataract extraction with or without intraocular lens implantation during PK (29% vs. 19%; hazard ratio = 0.54; 95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.82). Female recipients had a higher probability of a rejection event than males (29% vs. 21%; hazard ratio=1.42; 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 1.87), after controlling for the effect of preoperative diagnosis and lens status. Donor age and donor recipient ABO compatibility were not associated with rejection. Conclusions There was a substantially higher graft rejection rate in eyes with pseudophakic or aphakic corneal edema compared with eyes with Fuchs’ dystrophy. Female recipients were more likely to have a rejection event than males. Graft rejection was not associated with donor age. PMID:22488114

Application of Bayes' theorem for pulse shape discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monterial, Mateusz; Marleau, Peter; Clarke, Shaun; Pozzi, Sara

2015-09-01

A Bayesian approach is proposed for pulse shape discrimination of photons and neutrons in liquid organic scinitillators. Instead of drawing a decision boundary, each pulse is assigned a photon or neutron confidence probability. This allows for photon and neutron classification on an event-by-event basis. The sum of those confidence probabilities is used to estimate the number of photon and neutron instances in the data. An iterative scheme, similar to an expectation-maximization algorithm for Gaussian mixtures, is used to infer the ratio of photons-to-neutrons in each measurement. Therefore, the probability space adapts to data with varying photon-to-neutron ratios. A time-correlated measurement of Am-Be and separate measurements of 137Cs, 60Co and 232Th photon sources were used to construct libraries of neutrons and photons. These libraries were then used to produce synthetic data sets with varying ratios of photons-to-neutrons. Probability weighted method that we implemented was found to maintain neutron acceptance rate of up to 90% up to photon-to-neutron ratio of 2000, and performed 9% better than the decision boundary approach. Furthermore, the iterative approach appropriately changed the probability space with an increasing number of photons which kept the neutron population estimate from unrealistically increasing.

Application of Bayes' theorem for pulse shape discrimination

DOE PAGES

Marleau, Peter; Monterial, Mateusz; Clarke, Shaun; ...

2015-06-14

A Bayesian approach is proposed for pulse shape discrimination of photons and neutrons in liquid organic scinitillators. Instead of drawing a decision boundary, each pulse is assigned a photon or neutron confidence probability. In addition, this allows for photon and neutron classification on an event-by-event basis. The sum of those confidence probabilities is used to estimate the number of photon and neutron instances in the data. An iterative scheme, similar to an expectation-maximization algorithm for Gaussian mixtures, is used to infer the ratio of photons-to-neutrons in each measurement. Therefore, the probability space adapts to data with varying photon-to-neutron ratios. Amore » time-correlated measurement of Am–Be and separate measurements of 137Cs, 60Co and 232Th photon sources were used to construct libraries of neutrons and photons. These libraries were then used to produce synthetic data sets with varying ratios of photons-to-neutrons. Probability weighted method that we implemented was found to maintain neutron acceptance rate of up to 90% up to photon-to-neutron ratio of 2000, and performed 9% better than the decision boundary approach. Furthermore, the iterative approach appropriately changed the probability space with an increasing number of photons which kept the neutron population estimate from unrealistically increasing.« less

A predictive model to estimate the pretest probability of metastasis in patients with osteosarcoma.

PubMed

Wang, Sisheng; Zheng, Shaoluan; Hu, Kongzu; Sun, Heyan; Zhang, Jinling; Rong, Genxiang; Gao, Jie; Ding, Nan; Gui, Binjie

2017-01-01

Osteosarcomas (OSs) represent a huge challenge to improve the overall survival, especially in metastatic patients. Increasing evidence indicates that both tumor-associated elements but also on host-associated elements are under a remarkable effect on the prognosis of cancer patients, especially systemic inflammatory response. By analyzing a series prognosis of factors, including age, gender, primary tumor size, tumor location, tumor grade, and histological classification, monocyte ratio, and NLR ratio, a clinical predictive model was established by using stepwise logistic regression involved circulating leukocyte to compute the estimated probabilities of metastases for OS patients. The clinical predictive model was described by the following equations: probability of developing metastases = ex/(1 + ex), x = -2.150 +  (1.680 × monocyte ratio) + (1.533 × NLR ratio), where is the base of the natural logarithm, the assignment to each of the 2 variables is 1 if the ratio >1 (otherwise 0). The calculated AUC of the receiver-operating characteristic curve as 0.793 revealed well accuracy of this model (95% CI, 0.740-0.845). The predicted probabilities that we generated with the cross-validation procedure had a similar AUC (0.743; 95% CI, 0.684-0.803). The present model could be used to improve the outcomes of the metastases by developing a predictive model considering circulating leukocyte influence to estimate the pretest probability of developing metastases in patients with OS.

The impact of differences in EQ-5D and SF-6D utility scores on the acceptability of cost-utility ratios: results across five trial-based cost-utility studies.

PubMed

Joore, Manuela; Brunenberg, Danielle; Nelemans, Patricia; Wouters, Emiel; Kuijpers, Petra; Honig, Adriaan; Willems, Danielle; de Leeuw, Peter; Severens, Johan; Boonen, Annelies

2010-01-01

This article investigates whether differences in utility scores based on the EQ-5D and the SF-6D have impact on the incremental cost-utility ratios in five distinct patient groups. We used five empirical data sets of trial-based cost-utility studies that included patients with different disease conditions and severity (musculoskeletal disease, cardiovascular pulmonary disease, and psychological disorders) to calculate differences in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) based on EQ-5D and SF-6D utility scores. We compared incremental QALYs, incremental cost-utility ratios, and the probability that the incremental cost-utility ratio was acceptable within and across the data sets. We observed small differences in incremental QALYs, but large differences in the incremental cost-utility ratios and in the probability that these ratios were acceptable at a given threshold, in the majority of the presented cost-utility analyses. More specifically, in the patient groups with relatively mild health conditions the probability of acceptance of the incremental cost-utility ratio was considerably larger when using the EQ-5D to estimate utility. While in the patient groups with worse health conditions the probability of acceptance of the incremental cost-utility ratio was considerably larger when using the SF-6D to estimate utility. Much of the appeal in using QALYs as measure of effectiveness in economic evaluations is in the comparability across conditions and interventions. The incomparability of the results of cost-utility analyses using different instruments to estimate a single index value for health severely undermines this aspect and reduces the credibility of the use of incremental cost-utility ratios for decision-making.

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to kinship problems.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2014-05-01

In forensic genetics, DNA profiles are compared in order to make inferences, paternity cases being a standard example. The statistical evidence can be summarized and reported in several ways. For example, in a paternity case, the likelihood ratio (LR) and the probability of not excluding a random man as father (RMNE) are two common summary statistics. There has been a long debate on the merits of the two statistics, also in the context of DNA mixture interpretation, and no general consensus has been reached. In this paper, we show that the RMNE is a certain weighted average of inverse likelihood ratios. This is true in any forensic context. We show that the likelihood ratio in favor of the correct hypothesis is, in expectation, bigger than the reciprocal of the RMNE probability. However, with the exception of pathological cases, it is also possible to obtain smaller likelihood ratios. We illustrate this result for paternity cases. Moreover, some theoretical properties of the likelihood ratio for a large class of general pairwise kinship cases, including expected value and variance, are derived. The practical implications of the findings are discussed and exemplified.

Effects of Stress Ratio and Microstructure on Fatigue Failure Behavior of Polycrystalline Nickel Superalloy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H.; Guan, Z. W.; Wang, Q. Y.; Liu, Y. J.; Li, J. K.

2018-05-01

The effects of microstructure and stress ratio on high cycle fatigue of nickel superalloy Nimonic 80A were investigated. The stress ratios of 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 were chosen to perform fatigue tests in a frequency of 110 Hz. Cleavage failure was observed, and three competing failure crack initiation modes were discovered by a scanning electron microscope, which were classified as surface without facets, surface with facets and subsurface with facets. With increasing the stress ratio from 0.1 to 0.8, the occurrence probability of surface and subsurface with facets also increased and reached the maximum value at R = 0.5, meanwhile the probability of surface initiation without facets decreased. The effect of microstructure on the fatigue fracture behavior at different stress ratios was also observed and discussed. Based on the Goodman diagram, it was concluded that the fatigue strength of 50% probability of failure at R = 0.1, 0.5 and 0.8 is lower than the modified Goodman line.

Establishing a New Screening System for Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease with Mental Rotation Tasks that Evaluate Visuospatial Function.

PubMed

Suzuki, Ayuko; Shinozaki, Jun; Yazawa, Shogo; Ueki, Yoshino; Matsukawa, Noriyuki; Shimohama, Shun; Nagamine, Takashi

2018-01-01

The mental rotation task is well-known for the assessment of visuospatial function; however, it has not been used for screening of dementia patients. The aim of this study was to create a simple screening test for patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) by focusing on non-amnestic symptoms. Age-matched healthy controls (age 75.3±6.8), patients with MCI (76.5±5.5), and AD (78.2±5.0) participated in this study. They carried out mental rotation tasks targeting geometric graphics or alphabetical characters with three rotating angles (0°, 90°, and 180°) and indicated the correct answer. Response accuracy and reaction time were recorded along with their eye movements using an eye tracker. To quantify their visual processing strategy, the run count ratio (RC ratio) was calculated by dividing the mean number of fixations in incorrect answers by that in correct answers. AD patients showed lower accuracy and longer reaction time than controls. They also showed a significantly greater number of fixation and smaller saccade amplitude than controls, while fixation duration did not differ significantly. The RC ratio was higher for AD, followed by MCI and control groups. By setting the cut-off value to 0.47 in the 180° rotating angle task, we could differentiate MCI patients from controls with a probability of 80.0%. We established a new screening system for dementia patients by evaluating visuospatial function. The RC ratio during a mental rotation task is useful for discriminating MCI patients from controls.

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Amyloid-PET burden and regional distribution in cerebral amyloid angiopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis of biomarker performance.

PubMed

Charidimou, Andreas; Farid, Karim; Tsai, Hsin-Hsi; Tsai, Li-Kai; Yen, Rouh-Fang; Baron, Jean-Claude

2018-04-01

We performed a meta-analysis to synthesise current evidence on amyloid-positron emission tomography (PET) burden and presumed preferential occipital distribution in sporadic cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA). In a PubMed systematic search, we identified case-control studies with extractable data on global and occipital-to-global amyloid-PET uptake in symptomatic patients with CAA (per Boston criteria) versus control groups (healthy participants or patients with non-CAA deep intracerebral haemorrhage) and patients with Alzheimer's disease. To circumvent PET studies' methodological variation, we generated and used 'fold change', that is, ratio of mean amyloid uptake (global and occipital-to-global) of CAA relative to comparison groups. Amyloid-PET uptake biomarker performance was then quantified by random-effects meta-analysis on the ratios of the means. A ratio >1 indicates that amyloid-PET uptake (global or occipital/global) is higher in CAA than comparison groups, and a ratio <1 indicates the reverse. Seven studies, including 106 patients with CAA (>90% with probable CAA) and 138 controls (96 healthy elderly, 42 deep intracerebral haemorrhage controls) and 72 patients with Alzheimer's disease, were included. Global amyloid-PET ratio between patients with CAA and controls was above 1, with an average effect size of 1.18 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.28; p<0.0001). Occipital-to-global amyloid-PET uptake ratio did not differ between patients with CAA versus patients with deep intracerebral haemorrhage or healthy controls. By contrast, occipital-to-global amyloid-PET uptake ratio was above 1 in patients with CAA versus those with Alzheimer's disease, with an average ratio of 1.10 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.19; p=0.009) and high statistical heterogeneity. Our analysis provides exploratory actionable data on the overall effect sizes and strength of amyloid-PET burden and distribution in patients with CAA, useful for future larger studies. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Scintigraphy for pulmonary capillary protein leak. Final report, 1 October 1981-30 September 1985

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sugerman, H.J.; Tatum, J.L.; Hirsch, J.I.

1986-06-01

Computerized scintigraphy, employing the gamma camera, has been used to study the dynamics of the pulmonary capillary membrane leak of 99m-technetium-tagged human serum albumin (Tc-HSA). In preliminary canine studies, the severity of an oleic acid-induced albumin leak was proportional to the slope of lung: heart radioactivity ratio and was more sensitive than arterial blood gases or standard chest roentgenograms. This rising ratio is called slope of injury slope index. A number of agents were studied in an attempt to prevent oleic acid-induced pulmonary microvascular injury. Following a series of five control dogs, five dogs each were studied with each ofmore » the following agents: methylprednisolone, ibuprofen, the superoxide radical scavenger, MK-44, and, in three dogs, calcium gluconate. None of these agents was able to alter the rise in lung: heart radioactivity ratio following oleic acid injury. A septic pig model was developed for study of bacterially induced ARDS. Septic-induced ARDS and multi-system organ failure are probably secondary to the systemic release of several mediators of inflammation, treatment will probably require a combination of anti-inflammatory agents. This should impact significantly on the mortality and morbidity of septic complications in traumatized combat soldiers.« less

Statistical analyses of the relative risk.

PubMed Central

Gart, J J

1979-01-01

Let P1 be the probability of a disease in one population and P2 be the probability of a disease in a second population. The ratio of these quantities, R = P1/P2, is termed the relative risk. We consider first the analyses of the relative risk from retrospective studies. The relation between the relative risk and the odds ratio (or cross-product ratio) is developed. The odds ratio can be considered a parameter of an exponential model possessing sufficient statistics. This permits the development of exact significance tests and confidence intervals in the conditional space. Unconditional tests and intervals are also considered briefly. The consequences of misclassification errors and ignoring matching or stratifying are also considered. The various methods are extended to combination of results over the strata. Examples of case-control studies testing the association between HL-A frequencies and cancer illustrate the techniques. The parallel analyses of prospective studies are given. If P1 and P2 are small with large samples sizes the appropriate model is a Poisson distribution. This yields a exponential model with sufficient statistics. Exact conditional tests and confidence intervals can then be developed. Here we consider the case where two populations are compared adjusting for sex differences as well as for the strata (or covariate) differences such as age. The methods are applied to two examples: (1) testing in the two sexes the ratio of relative risks of skin cancer in people living in different latitudes, and (2) testing over time the ratio of the relative risks of cancer in two cities, one of which fluoridated its drinking water and one which did not. PMID:540589

Ratio-of-Mediator-Probability Weighting for Causal Mediation Analysis in the Presence of Treatment-by-Mediator Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Deutsch, Jonah; Hill, Heather D.

2015-01-01

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator-outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator…

Ratio-of-Mediator-Probability Weighting for Causal Mediation Analysis in the Presence of Treatment-by-Mediator Interaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hong, Guanglei; Deutsch, Jonah; Hill, Heather D.

2015-01-01

Conventional methods for mediation analysis generate biased results when the mediator--outcome relationship depends on the treatment condition. This article shows how the ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting (RMPW) method can be used to decompose total effects into natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of treatment-by-mediator…

A detailed description of the sequential probability ratio test for 2-IMU FDI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

The sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) for 2-IMU FDI (inertial measuring unit failure detection/isolation) is described. The SPRT is a statistical technique for detecting and isolating soft IMU failures originally developed for the strapdown inertial reference unit. The flowchart of a subroutine incorporating the 2-IMU SPRT is included.

Sense and Avoid Safety Analysis for Remotely Operated Unmanned Aircraft in the National Airspace System. Version 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor

2006-01-01

This document describes a method to demonstrate that a UAS, operating in the NAS, can avoid collisions with an equivalent level of safety compared to a manned aircraft. The method is based on the calculation of a collision probability for a UAS , the calculation of a collision probability for a base line manned aircraft, and the calculation of a risk ratio given by: Risk Ratio = P(collision_UAS)/P(collision_manned). A UAS will achieve an equivalent level of safety for collision risk if the Risk Ratio is less than or equal to one. Calculation of the probability of collision for UAS and manned aircraft is accomplished through event/fault trees.

K{sub β} to K{sub α} X-ray intensity ratios and K to L shell vacancy transfer probabilities of Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anand, L. F. M.; Gudennavar, S. B., E-mail: shivappa.b.gudennavar@christuniversity.in; Bubbly, S. G.

The K to L shell total vacancy transfer probabilities of low Z elements Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn are estimated by measuring the K{sub β} to K{sub α} intensity ratio adopting the 2π-geometry. The target elements were excited by 32.86 keV barium K-shell X-rays from a weak {sup 137}Cs γ-ray source. The emitted K-shell X-rays were detected using a low energy HPGe X-ray detector coupled to a 16 k MCA. The measured intensity ratios and the total vacancy transfer probabilities are compared with theoretical results and others’ work, establishing a good agreement.

Acute effects of caffeine on threat-selective attention: moderation by anxiety and EEG theta/beta ratio.

PubMed

van Son, Dana; Schalbroeck, Rik; Angelidis, Angelos; van der Wee, Nic J A; van der Does, Willem; Putman, Peter

2018-05-21

Spontaneous EEG theta/beta ratio (TBR) probably marks prefrontal cortical (PFC) executive control, and its regulation of attentional threat-bias. Caffeine at moderate doses may strengthen executive control through increased PFC catecholamine action, dependent on basal PFC function. To test if caffeine affects threat-bias, moderated by baseline frontal TBR and trait-anxiety. A pictorial emotional Stroop task was used to assess threat-bias in forty female participants in a cross-over, double-blind study after placebo and 200 mg caffeine. At baseline and after placebo, comparable relations were observed for negative pictures: high TBR was related to low threat-bias in low trait-anxious people. Caffeine had opposite effects on threat-bias in low trait-anxious people with low and high TBR. This further supports TBR as a marker of executive control and highlights the importance of taking baseline executive function into consideration when studying effects of caffeine on executive functions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The 50 AMP-hour nickel cadmium battery manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, D. A.

1981-01-01

The battery is designed with a minimum battery to cell weight ratio consistent with adequate containment for operating conditions and dynamic environments and minimized weight. The battery is fully qualified and the environments to which it was successfully subjected were selected by NASA Goddard to cover a wide range of probable uses. The battery is suitable for either near-Earth geosynchronous missions, is compatible with passive or active thermal control systems and may be electrically controlled by a variety of changing routines. The initial application of the 50 A.H. Battery is a near-Earth mission aboard the LANDSAT D Satellite.

A study on the probability of twin plane formation during the nucleation of AgBr and AgCl crystals in the aqueous gelatin solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohzeki, Katsuhisa; Hosoya, Yoichi

2007-07-01

A study was made on the probability of twin plane formation during the nucleation of AgBr and AgCl crystals. The growth condition was controlled to keep the number of the nuclei, neither decreasing owing to their dissolution, nor increasing owing to the formation of a new nucleus during the growth process. Under the condition, the nuclei were grown to have {1 1 1} faces on their surfaces by controlling pAg in a reaction solution and by use of growth modifier in case of AgCl crystal formation. The number of twin planes in each crystal was judged according to a conventional way on the basis of its morphology. The dependence of the number of twin planes per crystal on the probability of twin plain formation was in accordance with Poisson distribution, indicating the random formation of a twin plane on the {1 1 1} faces of a nucleus. The result that the ratio of number of AgCl crystals with parallel twin planes to all the multiply twinned crystals was about 10% supports the random formation of a twin plane and suggests that the twin plane formation took place on {1 1 1} surfaces at the possible eight corner of a nucleus. On the other hand, the ratio of the number of AgBr crystals with parallel twin planes to all the multiply twinned crystals was more than 50%. The result was explained by the anisotropic growth of a singly twinned nucleus according to the higher growth rate of {1 0 0} surfaces than that of {1 1 1} surfaces.

Statin Treatment and Clinical Outcomes of Heart Failure Among Africans: An Inverse Probability Treatment Weighted Analysis.

PubMed

Bonsu, Kwadwo Osei; Owusu, Isaac Kofi; Buabeng, Kwame Ohene; Reidpath, Daniel D; Kadirvelu, Amudha

2017-04-01

Randomized control trials of statins have not demonstrated significant benefits in outcomes of heart failure (HF). However, randomized control trials may not always be generalizable. The aim was to determine whether statin and statin type-lipophilic or -hydrophilic improve long-term outcomes in Africans with HF. This was a retrospective longitudinal study of HF patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized at a tertiary healthcare center between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 in Ghana. Patients were eligible if they were discharged from first admission for HF (index admission) and followed up to time of all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality or end of study. Multivariable time-dependent Cox model and inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting of marginal structural model were used to estimate associations between statin treatment and outcomes. Adjusted hazard ratios were also estimated for lipophilic and hydrophilic statin compared with no statin use. The study included 1488 patients (mean age 60.3±14.2 years) with 9306 person-years of observation. Using the time-dependent Cox model, the 5-year adjusted hazard ratios with 95% CI for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.67 (0.54-0.82), and 0.63 (0.51-0.79), respectively. Use of inverse-probability-of-treatment weighting resulted in estimates of 0.79 (0.65-0.96), 0.77 (0.63-0.96), and 0.77 (0.61-0.95) for statin treatment on all-cause, cardiovascular, and HF mortality, respectively, compared with no statin use. Among Africans with HF, statin treatment was associated with significant reduction in mortality. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

A statistical-based material and process guidelines for design of carbon nanotube field-effect transistors in gigascale integrated circuits.

PubMed

Ghavami, Behnam; Raji, Mohsen; Pedram, Hossein

2011-08-26

Carbon nanotube field-effect transistors (CNFETs) show great promise as building blocks of future integrated circuits. However, synthesizing single-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) with accurate chirality and exact positioning control has been widely acknowledged as an exceedingly complex task. Indeed, density and chirality variations in CNT growth can compromise the reliability of CNFET-based circuits. In this paper, we present a novel statistical compact model to estimate the failure probability of CNFETs to provide some material and process guidelines for the design of CNFETs in gigascale integrated circuits. We use measured CNT spacing distributions within the framework of detailed failure analysis to demonstrate that both the CNT density and the ratio of metallic to semiconducting CNTs play dominant roles in defining the failure probability of CNFETs. Besides, it is argued that the large-scale integration of these devices within an integrated circuit will be feasible only if a specific range of CNT density with an acceptable ratio of semiconducting to metallic CNTs can be adjusted in a typical synthesis process.

Evaluating impacts using a BACI design, ratios, and a Bayesian approach with a focus on restoration.

PubMed

Conner, Mary M; Saunders, W Carl; Bouwes, Nicolaas; Jordan, Chris

2015-10-01

Before-after-control-impact (BACI) designs are an effective method to evaluate natural and human-induced perturbations on ecological variables when treatment sites cannot be randomly chosen. While effect sizes of interest can be tested with frequentist methods, using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods, probabilities of effect sizes, such as a ≥20 % increase in density after restoration, can be directly estimated. Although BACI and Bayesian methods are used widely for assessing natural and human-induced impacts for field experiments, the application of hierarchal Bayesian modeling with MCMC sampling to BACI designs is less common. Here, we combine these approaches and extend the typical presentation of results with an easy to interpret ratio, which provides an answer to the main study question-"How much impact did a management action or natural perturbation have?" As an example of this approach, we evaluate the impact of a restoration project, which implemented beaver dam analogs, on survival and density of juvenile steelhead. Results indicated the probabilities of a ≥30 % increase were high for survival and density after the dams were installed, 0.88 and 0.99, respectively, while probabilities for a higher increase of ≥50 % were variable, 0.17 and 0.82, respectively. This approach demonstrates a useful extension of Bayesian methods that can easily be generalized to other study designs from simple (e.g., single factor ANOVA, paired t test) to more complicated block designs (e.g., crossover, split-plot). This approach is valuable for estimating the probabilities of restoration impacts or other management actions.

Drugs With Anticholinergic Potential and Risk of Falls With Hip Fracture in the Elderly Patients: A Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Machado-Duque, Manuel E; Castaño-Montoya, Juan Pablo; Medina-Morales, Diego A; Castro-Rodríguez, Alejandro; González-Montoya, Alexandra; Machado-Alba, Jorge E

2018-03-01

To determine the association between the use of anticholinergic drugs and the risk of falls with hip fracture in a population older than 60 years. A case-control study in patients older than 60 years with a diagnosis of hip fracture. All drugs dispensed during the previous 30 days were identified. Sociodemographic, clinical, pharmacological (drugs according to the Anticholinergic Risk Scale [ARS]), and polypharmacy variables were analyzed. Falls with hip fracture and type of drug according to the ARS. A total of 300 patients with hip fracture and 600 controls were included. The mean age was 81.6 ± 8.9 years, with female predominance (71.3%). The use of drugs with moderate (odds ratio [OR]: 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-3.27) or high ARS scores (OR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.13-2.96) increased the probability of fracture. There was an association between the use of drugs with anticholinergic properties and the probability of hip fracture in elderly patients and it was possible to establish the level of risk.

Bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction with Exhale airway stents for emphysema (EASE trial): randomised, sham-controlled, multicentre trial.

PubMed

Shah, P L; Slebos, D-J; Cardoso, P F G; Cetti, E; Voelker, K; Levine, B; Russell, M E; Goldin, J; Brown, M; Cooper, J D; Sybrecht, G W

2011-09-10

Airway bypass is a bronchoscopic lung-volume reduction procedure for emphysema whereby transbronchial passages into the lung are created to release trapped air, supported with paclitaxel-coated stents to ease the mechanics of breathing. The aim of the EASE (Exhale airway stents for emphysema) trial was to evaluate safety and efficacy of airway bypass in people with severe homogeneous emphysema. We undertook a randomised, double-blind, sham-controlled study in 38 specialist respiratory centres worldwide. We recruited 315 patients who had severe hyperinflation (ratio of residual volume [RV] to total lung capacity of ≥0·65). By computer using a random number generator, we randomly allocated participants (in a 2:1 ratio) to either airway bypass (n=208) or sham control (107). We divided investigators into team A (masked), who completed pre-procedure and post-procedure assessments, and team B (unmasked), who only did bronchoscopies without further interaction with patients. Participants were followed up for 12 months. The 6-month co-primary efficacy endpoint required 12% or greater improvement in forced vital capacity (FVC) and 1 point or greater decrease in the modified Medical Research Council dyspnoea score from baseline. The composite primary safety endpoint incorporated five severe adverse events. We did Bayesian analysis to show the posterior probability that airway bypass was superior to sham control (success threshold, 0·965). Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00391612. All recruited patients were included in the analysis. At 6 months, no difference between treatment arms was noted with respect to the co-primary efficacy endpoint (30 of 208 for airway bypass vs 12 of 107 for sham control; posterior probability 0·749, below the Bayesian success threshold of 0·965). The 6-month composite primary safety endpoint was 14·4% (30 of 208) for airway bypass versus 11·2% (12 of 107) for sham control (judged non-inferior, with a posterior probability of 1·00 [Bayesian success threshold >0·95]). Although our findings showed safety and transient improvements, no sustainable benefit was recorded with airway bypass in patients with severe homogeneous emphysema. Broncus Technologies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantile-based bias correction and uncertainty quantification of extreme event attribution statements

DOE PAGES

Jeon, Soyoung; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wehner, Michael F.

2016-02-16

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) or the risk ratio (RR) and associated confidence intervals. Many such analyses use climate model output to characterize extreme event behavior with and without anthropogenic influence. However, such climate models may have biases in their representation of extreme events. To account for discrepancies in the probabilities of extreme events between observational datasets and model datasets, we demonstrate an appropriate rescaling of the model output basedmore » on the quantiles of the datasets to estimate an adjusted risk ratio. Our methodology accounts for various components of uncertainty in estimation of the risk ratio. In particular, we present an approach to construct a one-sided confidence interval on the lower bound of the risk ratio when the estimated risk ratio is infinity. We demonstrate the methodology using the summer 2011 central US heatwave and output from the Community Earth System Model. In this example, we find that the lower bound of the risk ratio is relatively insensitive to the magnitude and probability of the actual event.« less

Human instrumental performance in ratio and interval contingencies: A challenge for associative theory.

PubMed

Pérez, Omar D; Aitken, Michael R F; Zhukovsky, Peter; Soto, Fabián A; Urcelay, Gonzalo P; Dickinson, Anthony

2016-12-15

Associative learning theories regard the probability of reinforcement as the critical factor determining responding. However, the role of this factor in instrumental conditioning is not completely clear. In fact, free-operant experiments show that participants respond at a higher rate on variable ratio than on variable interval schedules even though the reinforcement probability is matched between the schedules. This difference has been attributed to the differential reinforcement of long inter-response times (IRTs) by interval schedules, which acts to slow responding. In the present study, we used a novel experimental design to investigate human responding under random ratio (RR) and regulated probability interval (RPI) schedules, a type of interval schedule that sets a reinforcement probability independently of the IRT duration. Participants responded on each type of schedule before a final choice test in which they distributed responding between two schedules similar to those experienced during training. Although response rates did not differ during training, the participants responded at a lower rate on the RPI schedule than on the matched RR schedule during the choice test. This preference cannot be attributed to a higher probability of reinforcement for long IRTs and questions the idea that similar associative processes underlie classical and instrumental conditioning.

The choice of discount brand cigarettes: A comparative analysis of International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Canada and the United States (2002–2005)

PubMed Central

Nargis, Nigar; Fong, Geoffrey T.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Li, Qiang

2014-01-01

Background Increasing tobacco taxes to increase price is a proven tobacco control measure. This paper investigates how smokers respond to tax and price increases in their choice of discount brand cigarettes vs. premium brands. Objective To estimate how increase in the tax rate can affect smokers’ choice of discount brands versus premium brands. Methods Using data from ITC Surveys in Canada and the United States, a logit model was constructed to estimate the probability of choosing discount brand cigarettes in response to its price changes relative to premium brands, controlling for individual-specific demographic and socio-economic characteristics and regional effects. The self-reported price of an individual smoker is used in a random-effects regression model to impute price and to construct the price ratio for discount and premium brands for each smoker, which is used in the logit model. Findings An increase in the ratio of price of discount brand cigarettes to the price of premium brands by 0.1 is associated with a decrease in the probability of choosing discount brands by 0.08 in Canada. No significant effect is observed in case of the United States. Conclusion The results of the model explain two phenomena: (1) the widened price differential between premium and discount brand cigarettes contributed to the increased share of discount brand cigarettes in Canada in contrast to a relatively steady share in the United States during 2002–2005, and (2) increasing the price ratio of discount brands to premium brands—which occurs with an increase in specific excise tax—may lead to upward shifting from discount to premium brands rather than to downward shifting. These results underscore the significance of studying the effectiveness of tax increases in reducing overall tobacco consumption, particularly for specific excise taxes. PMID:23986408

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2010-01-01

When facing a conjunction between space objects, decision makers must chose whether to maneuver for collision avoidance or not. We apply a well-known decision procedure, the sequential probability ratio test, to this problem. We propose two approaches to the problem solution, one based on a frequentist method, and the other on a Bayesian method. The frequentist method does not require any prior knowledge concerning the conjunction, while the Bayesian method assumes knowledge of prior probability densities. Our results show that both methods achieve desired missed detection rates, but the frequentist method's false alarm performance is inferior to the Bayesian method's

Time-dependent fracture probability of bilayer, lithium-disilicate-based, glass-ceramic, molar crowns as a function of core/veneer thickness ratio and load orientation.

PubMed

Anusavice, Kenneth J; Jadaan, Osama M; Esquivel-Upshaw, Josephine F

2013-11-01

Recent reports on bilayer ceramic crown prostheses suggest that fractures of the veneering ceramic represent the most common reason for prosthesis failure. The aims of this study were to test the hypotheses that: (1) an increase in core ceramic/veneer ceramic thickness ratio for a crown thickness of 1.6mm reduces the time-dependent fracture probability (Pf) of bilayer crowns with a lithium-disilicate-based glass-ceramic core, and (2) oblique loading, within the central fossa, increases Pf for 1.6-mm-thick crowns compared with vertical loading. Time-dependent fracture probabilities were calculated for 1.6-mm-thick, veneered lithium-disilicate-based glass-ceramic molar crowns as a function of core/veneer thickness ratio and load orientation in the central fossa area. Time-dependent fracture probability analyses were computed by CARES/Life software and finite element analysis, using dynamic fatigue strength data for monolithic discs of a lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic core (Empress 2), and ceramic veneer (Empress 2 Veneer Ceramic). Predicted fracture probabilities (Pf) for centrally loaded 1.6-mm-thick bilayer crowns over periods of 1, 5, and 10 years are 1.2%, 2.7%, and 3.5%, respectively, for a core/veneer thickness ratio of 1.0 (0.8mm/0.8mm), and 2.5%, 5.1%, and 7.0%, respectively, for a core/veneer thickness ratio of 0.33 (0.4mm/1.2mm). CARES/Life results support the proposed crown design and load orientation hypotheses. The application of dynamic fatigue data, finite element stress analysis, and CARES/Life analysis represent an optimal approach to optimize fixed dental prosthesis designs produced from dental ceramics and to predict time-dependent fracture probabilities of ceramic-based fixed dental prostheses that can minimize the risk for clinical failures. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Dental Materials. All rights reserved.

Time-dependent fracture probability of bilayer, lithium-disilicate-based glass-ceramic molar crowns as a function of core/veneer thickness ratio and load orientation

PubMed Central

Anusavice, Kenneth J.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Esquivel–Upshaw, Josephine

2013-01-01

Recent reports on bilayer ceramic crown prostheses suggest that fractures of the veneering ceramic represent the most common reason for prosthesis failure. Objective The aims of this study were to test the hypotheses that: (1) an increase in core ceramic/veneer ceramic thickness ratio for a crown thickness of 1.6 mm reduces the time-dependent fracture probability (Pf) of bilayer crowns with a lithium-disilicate-based glass-ceramic core, and (2) oblique loading, within the central fossa, increases Pf for 1.6-mm-thick crowns compared with vertical loading. Materials and methods Time-dependent fracture probabilities were calculated for 1.6-mm-thick, veneered lithium-disilicate-based glass-ceramic molar crowns as a function of core/veneer thickness ratio and load orientation in the central fossa area. Time-dependent fracture probability analyses were computed by CARES/Life software and finite element analysis, using dynamic fatigue strength data for monolithic discs of a lithium-disilicate glass-ceramic core (Empress 2), and ceramic veneer (Empress 2 Veneer Ceramic). Results Predicted fracture probabilities (Pf) for centrally-loaded 1,6-mm-thick bilayer crowns over periods of 1, 5, and 10 years are 1.2%, 2.7%, and 3.5%, respectively, for a core/veneer thickness ratio of 1.0 (0.8 mm/0.8 mm), and 2.5%, 5.1%, and 7.0%, respectively, for a core/veneer thickness ratio of 0.33 (0.4 mm/1.2 mm). Conclusion CARES/Life results support the proposed crown design and load orientation hypotheses. Significance The application of dynamic fatigue data, finite element stress analysis, and CARES/Life analysis represent an optimal approach to optimize fixed dental prosthesis designs produced from dental ceramics and to predict time-dependent fracture probabilities of ceramic-based fixed dental prostheses that can minimize the risk for clinical failures. PMID:24060349

The FERRUM Project: Experimental Transition Probabilities of [Fe II] and Astrophysical Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, H.; Derkatch, A.; Donnelly, M. P.; Gull, T.; Hibbert, A.; Johannsson, S.; Lundberg, H.; Mannervik, S.; Norlin, L. -O.; Rostohar, D.

2002-01-01

We report on experimental transition probabilities for thirteen forbidden [Fe II] lines originating from three different metastable Fe II levels. Radiative lifetimes have been measured of two metastable states by applying a laser probing technique on a stored ion beam. Branching ratios for the radiative decay channels, i.e. M1 and E2 transitions, are derived from observed intensity ratios of forbidden lines in astrophysical spectra and compared with theoretical data. The lifetimes and branching ratios are combined to derive absolute transition probabilities, A-values. We present the first experimental lifetime values for the two Fe II levels a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) and A-values for 13 forbidden transitions from a(sup 6)S(sub 5/2), a(sup 4)G(sub 9/2) and b(sup 4)D(sub 7/2) in the optical region. A discrepancy between the measured and calculated values of the lifetime for the b(sup 2)H(sub 11/2) level is discussed in terms of level mixing. We have used the code CIV3 to calculate transition probabilities of the a(sup 6)D-a(sup 6)S transitions. We have also studied observational branching ratios for lines from 5 other metastable Fe II levels and compared them to calculated values. A consistency in the deviation between calibrated observational intensity ratios and theoretical branching ratios for lines in a wider wavelength region supports the use of [Fe II] lines for determination of reddening.

Characterizing the radial content of orbital-angular-momentum photonic states impaired by weak-to-strong atmospheric turbulence.

PubMed

Chen, Chunyi; Yang, Huamin

2016-08-22

The changes in the radial content of orbital-angular-momentum (OAM) photonic states described by Laguerre-Gaussian (LG) modes with a radial index of zero, suffering from turbulence-induced distortions, are explored by numerical simulations. For a single-photon field with a given LG mode propagating through weak-to-strong atmospheric turbulence, both the average LG and OAM mode densities are dependent only on two nondimensional parameters, i.e., the Fresnel ratio and coherence-width-to-beam-radius (CWBR) ratio. It is found that atmospheric turbulence causes the radially-adjacent-mode mixing, besides the azimuthally-adjacent-mode mixing, in the propagated photonic states; the former is relatively slighter than the latter. With the same Fresnel ratio, the probabilities that a photon can be found in the zero-index radial mode of intended OAM states in terms of the relative turbulence strength behave very similarly; a smaller Fresnel ratio leads to a slower decrease in the probabilities as the relative turbulence strength increases. A photon can be found in various radial modes with approximately equal probability when the relative turbulence strength turns great enough. The use of a single-mode fiber in OAM measurements can result in photon loss and hence alter the observed transition probability between various OAM states. The bit error probability in OAM-based free-space optical communication systems that transmit photonic modes belonging to the same orthogonal LG basis may depend on what digit is sent.

Prediction of hamstring injury in professional soccer players by isokinetic measurements

PubMed Central

Dauty, Marc; Menu, Pierre; Fouasson-Chailloux, Alban; Ferréol, Sophie; Dubois, Charles

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives previous studies investigating the ability of isokinetic strength ratios to predict hamstring injuries in soccer players have reported conflicting results. Hypothesis to determine if isokinetic ratios are able to predict hamstring injury occurring during the season in professional soccer players. Study Design case-control study; Level of evidence: 3. Methods from 2001 to 2011, 350 isokinetic tests were performed in 136 professional soccer players at the beginning of the soccer season. Fifty-seven players suffered hamstring injury during the season that followed the isokinetic tests. These players were compared with the 79 uninjured players. The bilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-hamstring), ipsilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-quadriceps), and mixed ratio (eccentric/concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) were studied. The predictive ability of each ratio was established based on the likelihood ratio and post-test probability. Results the mixed ratio (30 eccentric/240 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.8, ipsilateral ratio (180 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.47, and bilateral ratio (60 concentric hamstring-to-hamstring) <0.85 were the most predictive of hamstring injury. The ipsilateral ratio <0.47 allowed prediction of the severity of the hamstring injury, and was also influenced by the length of time since administration of the isokinetic tests. Conclusion isokinetic ratios are useful for predicting the likelihood of hamstring injury in professional soccer players during the competitive season. PMID:27331039

Suspected pulmonary embolism and lung scan interpretation: Trial of a Bayesian reporting method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Becker, D.M.; Philbrick, J.T.; Schoonover, F.W.

The objective of this research is to determine whether a Bayesian method of lung scan (LS) reporting could influence the management of patients with suspected pulmonary embolism (PE). The study is performed by the following: (1) A descriptive study of the diagnostic process for suspected PE using the new reporting method; (2) a non-experimental evaluation of the reporting method comparing prospective patients and historical controls; and (3) a survey of physicians' reactions to the reporting innovation. Of 148 consecutive patients enrolled at the time of LS, 129 were completely evaluated; 75 patients scanned the previous year served as controls. Themore » LS results of patients with suspected PE were reported as posttest probabilities of PE calculated from physician-provided pretest probabilities and the likelihood ratios for PE of LS interpretations. Despite the Bayesian intervention, the confirmation or exclusion of PE was often based on inconclusive evidence. PE was considered by the clinician to be ruled out in 98% of patients with posttest probabilities less than 25% and ruled in for 95% of patients with posttest probabilities greater than 75%. Prospective patients and historical controls were similar in terms of tests ordered after the LS (e.g., pulmonary angiography). Patients with intermediate or indeterminate lung scan results had the highest proportion of subsequent testing. Most physicians (80%) found the reporting innovation to be helpful, either because it confirmed clinical judgement (94 cases) or because it led to additional testing (7 cases). Despite the probabilistic guidance provided by the study, the diagnosis of PE was often neither clearly established nor excluded. While physicians appreciated the innovation and were not confused by the terminology, their clinical decision making was not clearly enhanced.« less

Sibling sex ratio and birth order in early-onset gender dysphoric adolescents.

PubMed

Schagen, Sebastian E E; Delemarre-van de Waal, Henriette A; Blanchard, Ray; Cohen-Kettenis, Peggy T

2012-06-01

Several sibship-related variables have been studied extensively in sexual orientation research, especially in men. Sibling sex ratio refers to the ratio of brothers to sisters in the aggregate sibships of a group of probands. Birth order refers to the probands' position (e.g., first-born, middle-born, last-born) within their sibships. Fraternal birth order refers to their position among male siblings only. Such research was extended in this study to a large group of early-onset gender dysphoric adolescents. The probands comprised 94 male-to-female and 95 female-to-male gender dysphoric adolescents. The overwhelming majority of these were homosexual or probably prehomosexual. The control group consisted of 875 boys and 914 girls from the TRAILS study. The sibling sex ratio of the gender dysphoric boys was very high (241 brothers per 100 sisters) compared with the expected ratio (106:100). The excess of brothers was more extreme among the probands' older siblings (300:100) than among their younger siblings (195:100). Between-groups comparisons showed that the gender dysphoric boys had significantly more older brothers, and significantly fewer older sisters and younger sisters, than did the control boys. In contrast, the only notable finding for the female groups was that the gender dysphoric girls had significantly fewer total siblings than did the control girls. The results for the male probands were consistent with prior speculations that a high fraternal birth order (i.e., an excess of older brothers) is found in all homosexual male groups, but an elevated sibling sex ratio (usually caused by an additional, smaller excess of younger brothers) is characteristic of gender dysphoric homosexual males. The mechanisms underlying these phenomena remain unknown.

Comparative effect of direct-fed microbials on fecal shedding of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella in naturally infected feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Tabe, Ebot S; Oloya, James; Doetkott, Dawn K; Bauer, Marc L; Gibbs, Penelope S; Khaitsa, Margaret L

2008-03-01

The effect of direct-fed microbials (DFM) on fecal shedding of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella in naturally infected feedlot cattle was evaluated in a clinical trial involving 138 feedlot steers. Following standard laboratory methods, fecal samples collected from steers were evaluated for change in the detectable levels of E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella shed in feces after DFM treatment. Sampling of steers was carried out every 3 weeks for 84 days. A significant reduction (32%) in fecal shedding of E. coli O157:H7 (P < 0.001), but not Salmonella (P = 0.24), was observed among the treatment steers compared with the control group during finishing. The probability of recovery of E. coli O157:H7 from the feces of treated and control steers was 34.0 and 66.0%, respectively. Steers placed on DFM supplement were almost three times less likely to shed E. coli O157:H7 (odds ratio, 0.36; 95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 0.53; P < 0.001) in their feces as opposed to their control counterparts. The probability of recovery of Salmonella from the feces of the control (14.0%) and the treated (11.3%) steers was similar. However, the DFM significantly reduced probability of new infections with Salmonella among DFM-treated cattle compared with controls (nontreated ones). It appears that DFM as applied in our study are capable of significantly reducing fecal shedding of E. coli O157:H7 in naturally infected cattle but not Salmonella. The factors responsible for the observed difference in the effects of DFM on E. coli O157:H7 and Salmonella warrants further investigation.

Meta-analysis for aggregated survival data with competing risks: a parametric approach using cumulative incidence functions.

PubMed

Bonofiglio, Federico; Beyersmann, Jan; Schumacher, Martin; Koller, Michael; Schwarzer, Guido

2016-09-01

Meta-analysis of a survival endpoint is typically based on the pooling of hazard ratios (HRs). If competing risks occur, the HRs may lose translation into changes of survival probability. The cumulative incidence functions (CIFs), the expected proportion of cause-specific events over time, re-connect the cause-specific hazards (CSHs) to the probability of each event type. We use CIF ratios to measure treatment effect on each event type. To retrieve information on aggregated, typically poorly reported, competing risks data, we assume constant CSHs. Next, we develop methods to pool CIF ratios across studies. The procedure computes pooled HRs alongside and checks the influence of follow-up time on the analysis. We apply the method to a medical example, showing that follow-up duration is relevant both for pooled cause-specific HRs and CIF ratios. Moreover, if all-cause hazard and follow-up time are large enough, CIF ratios may reveal additional information about the effect of treatment on the cumulative probability of each event type. Finally, to improve the usefulness of such analysis, better reporting of competing risks data is needed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Selection of a cardiac surgery provider in the managed care era.

PubMed

Shahian, D M; Yip, W; Westcott, G; Jacobson, J

2000-11-01

Many health planners promote the use of competition to contain cost and improve quality of care. Using a standard econometric model, we examined the evidence for "value-based" cardiac surgery provider selection in eastern Massachusetts, where there is significant competition and managed care penetration. McFadden's conditional logit model was used to study cardiac surgery provider selection among 6952 patients and eight metropolitan Boston hospitals in 1997. Hospital predictor variables included beds, cardiac surgery case volume, objective clinical and financial performance, reputation (percent out-of-state referrals, cardiac residency program), distance from patient's home to hospital, and historical referral patterns. Subgroup analyses were performed for each major payer category. Distance from patient's home to hospital (odds ratio 0.90; P =.000) and the historical referral pattern from each patient's hometown (z = 45.305; P =.000) were important predictors in all models. A cardiac surgery residency enhanced the probability of selection (odds ratio 5.25; P =.000), as did percent out-of-state referrals (odds ratio 1.10; P =.001). Higher mortality rates were associated with decreased probability of selection (odds ratio 0.51; P =.027), but higher length of stay was paradoxically associated with greater probability (odds ratio 1.72; P =.000). Total hospital costs were irrelevant (odds ratio 1.00; P =.179). When analyzed by payer subgroup, Medicare patients appeared to select hospitals with both low mortality (odds ratio 0.43; P =.176) and short length of stay (odds ratio 0.76; P =.213), although the results did not achieve statistical significance. The commercial managed care subgroup exhibited the least "value-based" behavior. The odds ratio for length of stay was the highest of any group (odds ratio = 2.589; P =.000) and there was a subset of hospitals for which higher mortality was actually associated with greater likelihood of selection. The observable determinants of cardiac surgery provider selection are related to hospital reputation, historical referral patterns, and patient proximity, not objective clinical or cost performance. The paradoxic behavior of commercial managed care probably results from unobserved choice factors that are not primarily based on objective provider performance.

Development of large diameter carbon monofilament

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, B.; Neltri, R. D.

1973-01-01

A process for preparing large diameter carbon-boron monofilament was developed. The process involves chemical vapor depositing a carbon-boron alloy monofilament from a BCl3, CH4, and H2 gas mixture onto a carbon substrate. Amorphous alloys were formed when gaseous mixtures containing greater than 20 percent methane (80 percent BCl3) were used. The longest uninterrupted lengths of carbon-boron monofilament were produced using a CH4/BCl3 gas ratio of 2.34. It was found that the properties of the carbon-boron alloy monofilament improved when the carbon substrate was precleaned in chlorine. The highest strength monofilament was attained when a CH4/BCl3 gas volume ratio of 0.44 was 28 million N/sq cm (40 million psi). While the highest strengths were attained in this run, the 0.44 gas ratio and other CH4/BCl3 ratios less than 2.34 would not yield long runs. Runs using these ratios were usually terminated because of a break in the monofilament within the reactor. It is felt better process control could probably be achieved by varying the amount of hydrogen; the BCl3/H2 ratio was kept constant in these studies.

Log-Normality and Multifractal Analysis of Flame Surface Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhishek; Chaudhuri, Swetaprovo; Law, Chung K.

2013-11-01

The turbulent flame surface is typically highly wrinkled and folded at a multitude of scales controlled by various flame properties. It is useful if the information contained in this complex geometry can be projected onto a simpler regular geometry for the use of spectral, wavelet or multifractal analyses. Here we investigate local flame surface statistics of turbulent flame expanding under constant pressure. First the statistics of local length ratio is experimentally obtained from high-speed Mie scattering images. For spherically expanding flame, length ratio on the measurement plane, at predefined equiangular sectors is defined as the ratio of the actual flame length to the length of a circular-arc of radius equal to the average radius of the flame. Assuming isotropic distribution of such flame segments we convolute suitable forms of the length-ratio probability distribution functions (pdfs) to arrive at corresponding area-ratio pdfs. Both the pdfs are found to be near log-normally distributed and shows self-similar behavior with increasing radius. Near log-normality and rather intermittent behavior of the flame-length ratio suggests similarity with dissipation rate quantities which stimulates multifractal analysis. Currently at Indian Institute of Science, India.

Semantic priming in the lexical decision task: roles of prospective prime-generated expectancies and retrospective semantic matching.

PubMed

Neely, J H; Keefe, D E; Ross, K L

1989-11-01

In semantic priming paradigms for lexical decisions, the probability that a word target is semantically related to its prime (the relatedness proportion) has been confounded with the probability that a target is a nonword, given that it is unrelated to its prime (the nonword ratio). This study unconfounded these two probabilities in a lexical decision task with category names as primes and with high- and low-dominance exemplars as targets. Semantic priming for high-dominance exemplars was modulated by the relatedness proportion and, to a lesser degree, by the nonword ratio. However, the nonword ratio exerted a stronger influence than did the relatedness proportion on semantic priming for low-dominance exemplars and on the nonword facilitation effect (i.e., the superiority in performance for nonword targets that follow a category name rather than a neutral XXX prime). These results suggest that semantic priming for lexical decisions is affected by both a prospective prime-generated expectancy, modulated by the relatedness proportion, and a retrospective target/prime semantic matching process, modulated by the nonword ratio.

Psychopathology among New York city public school children 6 months after September 11.

PubMed

Hoven, Christina W; Duarte, Cristiane S; Lucas, Christopher P; Wu, Ping; Mandell, Donald J; Goodwin, Renee D; Cohen, Michael; Balaban, Victor; Woodruff, Bradley A; Bin, Fan; Musa, George J; Mei, Lori; Cantor, Pamela A; Aber, J Lawrence; Cohen, Patricia; Susser, Ezra

2005-05-01

Children exposed to a traumatic event may be at higher risk for developing mental disorders. The prevalence of child psychopathology, however, has not been assessed in a population-based sample exposed to different levels of mass trauma or across a range of disorders. To determine prevalence and correlates of probable mental disorders among New York City, NY, public school students 6 months following the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center attack. Survey. New York City public schools. A citywide, random, representative sample of 8236 students in grades 4 through 12, including oversampling in closest proximity to the World Trade Center site (ground zero) and other high-risk areas. Children were screened for probable mental disorders with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Predictive Scales. One or more of 6 probable anxiety/depressive disorders were identified in 28.6% of all children. The most prevalent were probable agoraphobia (14.8%), probable separation anxiety (12.3%), and probable posttraumatic stress disorder (10.6%). Higher levels of exposure correspond to higher prevalence for all probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Girls and children in grades 4 and 5 were the most affected. In logistic regression analyses, child's exposure (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62), exposure of a child's family member (adjusted odds ratio, 1.80), and the child's prior trauma (adjusted odds ratio, 2.01) were related to increased likelihood of probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Results were adjusted for different types of exposure, sociodemographic characteristics, and child mental health service use. A high proportion of New York City public school children had a probable mental disorder 6 months after September 11, 2001. The data suggest that there is a relationship between level of exposure to trauma and likelihood of child anxiety/depressive disorders in the community. The results support the need to apply wide-area epidemiological approaches to mental health assessment after any large-scale disaster.

Endocannabinoids control vesicle release mode at midbrain periaqueductal grey inhibitory synapses.

PubMed

Aubrey, Karin R; Drew, Geoffrey M; Jeong, Hyo-Jin; Lau, Benjamin K; Vaughan, Christopher W

2017-01-01

The midbrain periaqueductal grey (PAG) forms part of an endogenous analgesic system which is tightly regulated by the neurotransmitter GABA. The role of endocannabinoids in regulating GABAergic control of this system was examined in rat PAG slices. Under basal conditions GABAergic neurotransmission onto PAG output neurons was multivesicular. Activation of the endocannabinoid system reduced GABAergic inhibition by reducing the probability of release and by shifting release to a univesicular mode. Blockade of endocannabinoid system unmasked a tonic control over the probability and mode of GABA release. These findings provides a mechanistic foundation for the control of the PAG analgesic system by disinhibition. The midbrain periaqueductal grey (PAG) has a crucial role in coordinating endogenous analgesic responses to physiological and psychological stressors. Endocannabinoids are thought to mediate a form of stress-induced analgesia within the PAG by relieving GABAergic inhibition of output neurons, a process known as disinhibition. This disinhibition is thought to be achieved by a presynaptic reduction in GABA release probability. We examined whether other mechanisms have a role in endocannabinoid modulation of GABAergic synaptic transmission within the rat PAG. The group I mGluR agonist DHPG ((R,S)-3,5-dihydroxyphenylglycine) inhibited evoked IPSCs and increased their paired pulse ratio in normal external Ca 2+ , and when release probability was reduced by lowering Ca 2+ . However, the effect of DHPG on the coefficient of variation and kinetics of evoked IPSCs differed between normal and low Ca 2+ . Lowering external Ca 2+ had a similar effect on evoked IPSCs to that observed for DHPG in normal external Ca 2+ . The low affinity GABA A receptor antagonist TPMPA ((1,2,5,6-tetrahydropyridin-4-yl)methylphosphinic acid) inhibited evoked IPSCs to a greater extent in low than in normal Ca 2+ . Together these findings indicate that the normal mode of GABA release is multivesicular within the PAG, and that DHPG and lowering external Ca 2+ switch this to a univesicular mode. The effects of DHPG were mediated by mGlu5 receptor engagement of the retrograde endocannabinoid system. Blockade of endocannabinoid breakdown produced a similar shift in the mode of release. We conclude that endocannabinoids control both the mode and the probability of GABA release within the PAG. © 2016 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

INTEROCC case–control study: lack of association between glioma tumors and occupational exposure to selected combustion products, dusts and other chemical agents

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The aim was to investigate possible associations between glioma (an aggressive type of brain cancer) and occupational exposure to selected agents: combustion products (diesel and gasoline exhaust emissions, benzo(a)pyrene), dusts (animal dust, asbestos, crystalline silica, wood dust) and some other chemical agents (formaldehyde, oil mist, sulphur dioxide). Methods The INTEROCC study included cases diagnosed with glioma during 2000–2004 in sub-regions of seven countries. Population controls, selected from various sampling frames in different centers, were frequency or individually matched to cases by sex, age and center. Face-to-face interviews with the subject or a proxy respondent were conducted by trained interviewers. Detailed information was collected on socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics, medical history and work history. Occupational exposure to the 10 selected agents was assessed by a job exposure matrix (JEM) which provides estimates of the probability and level of exposure for different occupations. Using a 25% probability of exposure in a given occupation in the JEM as the threshold for considering a worker exposed, the lifetime prevalence of exposure varied from about 1% to about 15% for the different agents. Associations between glioma and each of the 10 agents were estimated by conditional logistic regression, and using three separate exposure indices: i) ever vs. never; ii) lifetime cumulative exposure; iii) total duration of exposure. Results The study sample consisted of 1,800 glioma cases and 5,160 controls. Most odds ratio estimates were close to the null value. None of the ten agents displayed a significantly increased odds ratio nor any indication of dose–response relationships with cumulative exposure or with duration of exposure. Conclusion Thus, there was no evidence that these exposures influence risk of glioma. PMID:23587105

Gastrointestinal manifestations of cow's milk allergy.

PubMed

Magazzù, Giuseppe; Scoglio, Riccardo

2002-12-01

To review and discuss the relationship between cow's milk allergy (CMA) and some gastrointestinal manifestations, such as gastroesophageal reflux, constipation, food protein-induced enterocolitis, and food-induced eosinophilic proctocolitis, with respect to diagnostic strategies that might eliminate the need for a double-blind, placebo-controlled oral food challenge (DBPCFC). A review of pertinent PubMed articles, published during the past 10 years, was performed. To obtain positive and negative predictive values known as posterior probabilities and to calculate the likelihood ratio, only those studies including both patients and control subjects were selected for analysis. With respect to gastroesophageal reflux, a typical 24-hour esophageal pH monitoring pattern might obviate the performance of a DBPCFC in patients with symptoms of reflux suspected of having CMA, provided this pH pattern is confirmed in other studies. A relationship between CMA and constipation has been reported in only one prospective controlled study; the clinical and laboratory variables of perianal lesions, histologic abnormalities, and signs of hypersensitivity had likelihood ratios of 2.2, 2.4, and 3.7, respectively, and posttest probabilities of 83, 84, and 88%, respectively. Therefore, a DBPCFC is warranted. In reference to food protein-induced enterocolitis, clinical and laboratory criteria suggested in the literature for defining a food challenge as positive have not been prospectively evaluated in the untreated state. Some simple stool tests, such as fecal tumor necrosis factor-alpha and alpha1-antitrypsin determination, might be candidates for diagnostic studies in patients with food protein-induced enterocolitis, if prospectively evaluated. In infants with food-induced eosinophilic proctocolitis, rectal biopsy invariably shows eosinophilic infiltration and thus makes performance of a DBPCFC unnecessary. Although the current diagnosis of gastrointestinal manifestations of CMA usually depends on a DBPCFC, investigators continue to study other options for confirming the diagnosis.

INTEROCC case-control study: lack of association between glioma tumors and occupational exposure to selected combustion products, dusts and other chemical agents.

PubMed

Lacourt, Aude; Cardis, Elisabeth; Pintos, Javier; Richardson, Lesley; Kincl, Laurel; Benke, Geza; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, Dave; Parent, Marie-Elise; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Lavoue, Jerome; van Tongeren, Martie; Siemiatycki, Jack

2013-04-12

The aim was to investigate possible associations between glioma (an aggressive type of brain cancer) and occupational exposure to selected agents: combustion products (diesel and gasoline exhaust emissions, benzo(a)pyrene), dusts (animal dust, asbestos, crystalline silica, wood dust) and some other chemical agents (formaldehyde, oil mist, sulphur dioxide). The INTEROCC study included cases diagnosed with glioma during 2000-2004 in sub-regions of seven countries. Population controls, selected from various sampling frames in different centers, were frequency or individually matched to cases by sex, age and center. Face-to-face interviews with the subject or a proxy respondent were conducted by trained interviewers. Detailed information was collected on socio-economic and lifestyle characteristics, medical history and work history. Occupational exposure to the 10 selected agents was assessed by a job exposure matrix (JEM) which provides estimates of the probability and level of exposure for different occupations. Using a 25% probability of exposure in a given occupation in the JEM as the threshold for considering a worker exposed, the lifetime prevalence of exposure varied from about 1% to about 15% for the different agents. Associations between glioma and each of the 10 agents were estimated by conditional logistic regression, and using three separate exposure indices: i) ever vs. never; ii) lifetime cumulative exposure; iii) total duration of exposure. The study sample consisted of 1,800 glioma cases and 5,160 controls. Most odds ratio estimates were close to the null value. None of the ten agents displayed a significantly increased odds ratio nor any indication of dose-response relationships with cumulative exposure or with duration of exposure. Thus, there was no evidence that these exposures influence risk of glioma.

Two-IMU FDI performance of the sequential probability ratio test during shuttle entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rich, T. M.

1976-01-01

Performance data for the sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) during shuttle entry are presented. Current modeling constants and failure thresholds are included for the full mission 3B from entry through landing trajectory. Minimum 100 percent detection/isolation failure levels and a discussion of the effects of failure direction are presented. Finally, a limited comparison of failures introduced at trajectory initiation shows that the SPRT algorithm performs slightly worse than the data tracking test.

What does brain response to neutral faces tell us about major depression? evidence from machine learning and fMRI.

PubMed

Oliveira, Leticia; Ladouceur, Cecile D; Phillips, Mary L; Brammer, Michael; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina

2013-01-01

A considerable number of previous studies have shown abnormalities in the processing of emotional faces in major depression. Fewer studies, however, have focused specifically on abnormal processing of neutral faces despite evidence that depressed patients are slow and less accurate at recognizing neutral expressions in comparison with healthy controls. The current study aimed to investigate whether this misclassification described behaviourally for neutral faces also occurred when classifying patterns of brain activation to neutral faces for these patients. TWO INDEPENDENT DEPRESSED SAMPLES: (1) Nineteen medication-free patients with depression and 19 healthy volunteers and (2) Eighteen depressed individuals and 18 age and gender-ratio-matched healthy volunteers viewed emotional faces (sad/neutral; happy/neutral) during an fMRI experiment. We used a new pattern recognition framework: first, we trained the classifier to discriminate between two brain states (e.g. viewing happy faces vs. viewing neutral faces) using data only from healthy controls (HC). Second, we tested the classifier using patterns of brain activation of a patient and a healthy control for the same stimuli. Finally, we tested if the classifier's predictions (predictive probabilities) for emotional and neutral face classification were different for healthy controls and depressed patients. Predictive probabilities to patterns of brain activation to neutral faces in both groups of patients were significantly lower in comparison to the healthy controls. This difference was specific to neutral faces. There were no significant differences in predictive probabilities to patterns of brain activation to sad faces (sample 1) and happy faces (samples 2) between depressed patients and healthy controls. Our results suggest that the pattern of brain activation to neutral faces in depressed patients is not consistent with the pattern observed in healthy controls subject to the same stimuli. This difference in brain activation might underlie the behavioural misinterpretation of the neutral faces content by the depressed patients.

Measurement of Two- and Three-Nucleon Short-Range Correlation Probabilities in Nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egiyan, K. S.; Dashyan, N. B.; Sargsian, M. M.; Strikman, M. I.; Weinstein, L. B.; Adams, G.; Ambrozewicz, P.; Anghinolfi, M.; Asavapibhop, B.; Asryan, G.; Avakian, H.; Baghdasaryan, H.; Baillie, N.; Ball, J. P.; Baltzell, N. A.; Batourine, V.; Battaglieri, M.; Bedlinskiy, I.; Bektasoglu, M.; Bellis, M.; Benmouna, N.; Biselli, A. S.; Bonner, B. E.; Bouchigny, S.; Boiarinov, S.; Bradford, R.; Branford, D.; Brooks, W. K.; Bültmann, S.; Burkert, V. D.; Bultuceanu, C.; Calarco, J. R.; Careccia, S. L.; Carman, D. S.; Carnahan, B.; Chen, S.; Cole, P. L.; Coltharp, P.; Corvisiero, P.; Crabb, D.; Crannell, H.; Cummings, J. P.; Sanctis, E. De; Devita, R.; Degtyarenko, P. V.; Denizli, H.; Dennis, L.; Dharmawardane, K. V.; Djalali, C.; Dodge, G. E.; Donnelly, J.; Doughty, D.; Dragovitsch, P.; Dugger, M.; Dytman, S.; Dzyubak, O. P.; Egiyan, H.; Elouadrhiri, L.; Empl, A.; Eugenio, P.; Fatemi, R.; Fedotov, G.; Feuerbach, R. J.; Forest, T. A.; Funsten, H.; Gavalian, G.; Gevorgyan, N. G.; Gilfoyle, G. P.; Giovanetti, K. L.; Girod, F. X.; Goetz, J. T.; Golovatch, E.; Gothe, R. W.; Griffioen, K. A.; Guidal, M.; Guillo, M.; Guler, N.; Guo, L.; Gyurjyan, V.; Hadjidakis, C.; Hardie, J.; Hersman, F. W.; Hicks, K.; Hleiqawi, I.; Holtrop, M.; Hu, J.; Huertas, M.; Hyde-Wright, C. E.; Ilieva, Y.; Ireland, D. G.; Ishkhanov, B. S.; Ito, M. M.; Jenkins, D.; Jo, H. S.; Joo, K.; Juengst, H. G.; Kellie, J. D.; Khandaker, M.; Kim, K. Y.; Kim, K.; Kim, W.; Klein, A.; Klein, F. J.; Klimenko, A.; Klusman, M.; Kramer, L. H.; Kubarovsky, V.; Kuhn, J.; Kuhn, S. E.; Kuleshov, S.; Lachniet, J.; Laget, J. M.; Langheinrich, J.; Lawrence, D.; Lee, T.; Livingston, K.; Maximon, L. C.; McAleer, S.; McKinnon, B.; McNabb, J. W.; Mecking, B. A.; Mestayer, M. D.; Meyer, C. A.; Mibe, T.; Mikhailov, K.; Minehart, R.; Mirazita, M.; Miskimen, R.; Mokeev, V.; Morrow, S. A.; Mueller, J.; Mutchler, G. S.; Nadel-Turonski, P.; Napolitano, J.; Nasseripour, R.; Niccolai, S.; Niculescu, G.; Niculescu, I.; Niczyporuk, B. B.; Niyazov, R. A.; O'Rielly, G. V.; Osipenko, M.; Ostrovidov, A. I.; Park, K.; Pasyuk, E.; Peterson, C.; Pierce, J.; Pivnyuk, N.; Pocanic, D.; Pogorelko, O.; Polli, E.; Pozdniakov, S.; Preedom, B. M.; Price, J. W.; Prok, Y.; Protopopescu, D.; Qin, L. M.; Raue, B. A.; Riccardi, G.; Ricco, G.; Ripani, M.; Ritchie, B. G.; Ronchetti, F.; Rosner, G.; Rossi, P.; Rowntree, D.; Rubin, P. D.; Sabatié, F.; Salgado, C.; Santoro, J. P.; Sapunenko, V.; Schumacher, R. A.; Serov, V. S.; Sharabian, Y. G.; Shaw, J.; Smith, E. S.; Smith, L. C.; Sober, D. I.; Stavinsky, A.; Stepanyan, S.; Stokes, B. E.; Stoler, P.; Strauch, S.; Suleiman, R.; Taiuti, M.; Taylor, S.; Tedeschi, D. J.; Thompson, R.; Tkabladze, A.; Tkachenko, S.; Todor, L.; Tur, C.; Ungaro, M.; Vineyard, M. F.; Vlassov, A. V.; Weygand, D. P.; Williams, M.; Wolin, E.; Wood, M. H.; Yegneswaran, A.; Yun, J.; Zana, L.; Zhang, J.

2006-03-01

The ratios of inclusive electron scattering cross sections of 4He, 12C, and 56Fe to 3He have been measured at 11.4 GeV2, the ratios exhibit two separate plateaus, at 1.52.25. This pattern is predicted by models that include 2- and 3-nucleon short-range correlations (SRC). Relative to A=3, the per-nucleon probabilities of 3-nucleon SRC are 2.3, 3.1, and 4.4 times larger for A=4, 12, and 56. This is the first measurement of 3-nucleon SRC probabilities in nuclei.

[Fractional exhaled nitric oxide in monitoring and therapeutic management of asthma].

PubMed

Melo, Bruno; Costa, Patrício; Afonso, Ariana; Machado, Vânia; Moreira, Carla; Gonçalves, Augusta; Gonçalves, Jean-Pierre

2014-01-01

Asthma is a chronic respiratory disease characterized by hyper-responsiveness and bronchial inflammation. The bronchial inflammation in these patients can be monitored by measuring the fractional exhaled nitric oxide. This study aims to determine fractional exhaled nitric oxide association with peak expiratory flow and with asthma control inferred by the Global Initiative for Asthma. Observational, analytical and cross-sectional study of children with asthma, 6-12 years-old, followed in the Outpatient Respiratory Pathology of Braga Hospital. Sociodemographic and clinical information were collected through a questionnaire. fractional exhaled nitric oxide and peak expiratory flow were determined by portable analyzer Niox Mino® and flow meter, respectively. The sample is constituted by 101 asthmatic children, 63 (62.4%) of males and 38 (37.6%) females. The mean age of participants in the sample is 9.18 (1.99) years. The logistic regression performed with the cutoff value obtained by ROC curve, revealed that fractional exhaled nitric oxide (b(FENO classes) = 0.85; χ(2)Wald (1) = 8.71; OR = 2.33; p = 0.003) has a statistical significant effect on the probability of changing level of asthma control. The odds ratio of going from "controlled" to "partly controlled/uncontrolled" is 2.33 per each level of fractional exhaled nitric oxide. The probability of an asthmatic children change their level of asthma control, from 'controlled' to 'partly controlled/uncontrolled', taking into account a change in their fractional exhaled nitric oxide level, increases 133%.

A large multi-pathogen gastroenteritis outbreak caused by drinking contaminated water from antique neighbourhood fountains, Erzurum city, Turkey, December 2012.

PubMed

Sezen, F; Aval, E; Ağkurt, T; Yilmaz, Ş; Temel, F; Güleşen, R; Korukluoğlu, G; Sucakli, M B; Torunoğlu, M A; Zhu, B-P

2015-03-01

We investigated a gastroenteritis outbreak in Erzurum city, Turkey in December 2012 to identify its cause and mode of transmission. We defined a probable case as onset of diarrhoea (⩾3 episodes/day) or vomiting, plus fever or nausea or abdominal pain during 19-27 December, 2012 in an Erzurum city resident. In a case-control study we compared exposures of 95 randomly selected probable cases and 95 neighbourhood-matched controls. We conducted bacterial culture and real-time multiplex PCR for identification of pathogens. During the week before illness onset, 72% of cases and 15% of controls only drank water from antique neighbourhood fountains; conversely, 16% of cases and 65% of controls only drank bottled or tap water (adjusted odds ratio 20, 95% confidence interval 4·6-84, after controlling for age and sex using conditional logistic regression). Of eight stool specimens collected, two were positive for Shigella sonnei, one for astrovirus, one for astrovirus and norovirus, and one for astrovirus and rotavirus. Water samples from the fountains had elevated total coliform (38-300/100 ml) and Escherichia coli (22-198/100 ml) counts. In conclusion, drinking contaminated fountain water caused this multi-pathogen outbreak. Residents should stop drinking water from these fountains, and clean water from the water treatment plant should be connected to the fountains.

Inverse association between cancer and Alzheimer's disease: results from the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Driver, Jane A; Beiser, Alexa; Au, Rhoda; Kreger, Bernard E; Splansky, Greta Lee; Kurth, Tobias; Kiel, Douglas P; Lu, Kun Ping; Seshadri, Sudha; Wolf, Phillip A

2012-03-12

To relate cancer since entry into the Framingham Heart Study with the risk of incident Alzheimer's disease and to estimate the risk of incident cancer among participants with and without Alzheimer's disease. Community based prospective cohort study; nested age and sex matched case-control study. Framingham Heart Study, USA. 1278 participants with and without a history of cancer who were aged 65 or more and free of dementia at baseline (1986-90). Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risks of Alzheimer's disease and cancer. Over a mean follow-up of 10 years, 221 cases of probable Alzheimer's disease were diagnosed. Cancer survivors had a lower risk of probable Alzheimer's disease (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.47 to 0.97), adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. The risk was lower among survivors of smoking related cancers (0.26, 0.08 to 0.82) than among survivors of non-smoking related cancers (0.82, 0.57 to 1.19). In contrast with their decreased risk of Alzheimer's disease, survivors of smoking related cancer had a substantially increased risk of stroke (2.18, 1.29 to 3.68). In the nested case-control analysis, participants with probable Alzheimer's disease had a lower risk of subsequent cancer (0.39, 0.26 to 0.58) than reference participants, as did participants with any Alzheimer's disease (0.38) and any dementia (0.44). Cancer survivors had a lower risk of Alzheimer's disease than those without cancer, and patients with Alzheimer's disease had a lower risk of incident cancer. The risk of Alzheimer's disease was lowest in survivors of smoking related cancers, and was not primarily explained by survival bias. This pattern for cancer is similar to that seen in Parkinson's disease and suggests an inverse association between cancer and neurodegeneration.

Diffraction and quantum control of wave functions in nonresonant two-photon absorption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baihong; Pang, Huafeng; Wang, Doudou; Zhang, Tao; Dong, Ruifang; Li, Yongfang

2018-03-01

In this study, the nonresonant two-photon absorption process in a two-level atom, induced by a weak chirped pulse, is theoretically investigated in the frequency domain. An analytical expression of the wave function expressed by Fresnel functions is obtained, and the two-photon transition probability (TPTP) versus the integral bandwidth, spectral width, and chirp parameter is analyzed. The results indicate that the oscillation evolution of the TPTP result from quantum diffraction of the wave function, which can be explained by analogy with Fresnel diffraction from a wide slit in the spatial domain. Moreover, the ratio between the real and imaginary parts of the excited state wave function and, hence, the atomic polarization, can be controlled by the initial phase of the excitation pulse. In some special initial phase of the excitation pulse, the wave functions with purely real or imaginary parts can be obtained by measuring the population probability. This work provides a novel perspective for understanding the physical details of the interactions between atoms and chirped light pulses in the multiphoton process.

Using hyperentanglement to enhance resolution, signal-to-noise ratio, and measurement time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James F.

2017-03-01

A hyperentanglement-based atmospheric imaging/detection system involving only a signal and an ancilla photon will be considered for optical and infrared frequencies. Only the signal photon will propagate in the atmosphere and its loss will be classical. The ancilla photon will remain within the sensor experiencing low loss. Closed form expressions for the wave function, normalization, density operator, reduced density operator, symmetrized logarithmic derivative, quantum Fisher information, quantum Cramer-Rao lower bound, coincidence probabilities, probability of detection, probability of false alarm, probability of error after M measurements, signal-to-noise ratio, quantum Chernoff bound, time-on-target expressions related to probability of error, and resolution will be provided. The effect of noise in every mode will be included as well as loss. The system will provide the basic design for an imaging/detection system functioning at optical or infrared frequencies that offers better than classical angular and range resolution. Optimization for enhanced resolution will be included. The signal-to-noise ratio will be increased by a factor equal to the number of modes employed during the hyperentanglement process. Likewise, the measurement time can be reduced by the same factor. The hyperentanglement generator will typically make use of entanglement in polarization, energy-time, orbital angular momentum and so on. Mathematical results will be provided describing the system's performance as a function of loss mechanisms and noise.

"Jumping to conclusions" in delusion-prone participants: an experimental economics approach.

PubMed

van der Leer, Leslie; McKay, Ryan

2014-01-01

That delusional and delusion-prone individuals "jump to conclusions" on probabilistic reasoning tasks is a key finding in cognitive neuropsychiatry. Here we focused on a less frequently investigated aspect of "jumping to conclusions" (JTC): certainty judgments. We incorporated rigorous procedures from experimental economics to eliminate potential confounds of miscomprehension and motivation and systematically investigated the effect of incentives on task performance. Low- and high-delusion-prone participants (n = 109) completed a series of computerised trials; on each trial, they were shown a black or a white fish, caught from one of the two lakes containing fish of both colours in complementary ratios. In the betting condition, participants were given £4 to distribute over the two lakes as they wished; in the control condition, participants simply provided an estimate of how probable each lake was. Deviations from Bayesian probabilities were investigated. Whereas high-delusion-prone participants in both the control and betting conditions underestimated the Bayesian probabilities (i.e. were conservative), low-delusion-prone participants in the control condition underestimated but those in the betting condition provided accurate estimates. In the control condition, there was a trend for high-delusion-prone participants to give higher estimates than low-delusion-prone participants, which is consistent with previous reports of "jumping to conclusions" in delusion-prone participants. However, our findings in the betting condition, where high-delusion-prone participants provided lower estimates than low-delusion-prone participants (who were accurate), are inconsistent with the jumping-to-conclusions effect in both a relative and an absolute sense. Our findings highlight the key role of task incentives and underscore the importance of comparing the responses of delusion-prone participants to an objective rational standard as well as to the responses of non-delusion-prone participants.

levels and sociodemographic correlates of accelerometer-based physical activity in Irish children: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Li, Xia; Kearney, Patricia M; Keane, Eimear; Harrington, Janas M; Fitzgerald, Anthony P

2017-06-01

The aim of this study was to explore levels and sociodemographic correlates of physical activity (PA) over 1 week using accelerometer data. Accelerometer data was collected over 1 week from 1075 8-11-year-old children in the cross-sectional Cork Children's Lifestyle Study. Threshold values were used to categorise activity intensity as sedentary, light, moderate or vigorous. Questionnaires collected data on demographic factors. Smoothed curves were used to display minute by minute variations. Binomial regression was used to identify factors correlated with the probability of meeting WHO 60 min moderate to vigorous PA guidelines. Overall, 830 children (mean (SD) age: 9.9(0.7) years, 56.3% boys) were included. From the binomial multiple regression analysis, boys were found more likely to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.17, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.28) than girls. Older children were less likely to meet guidelines than younger children (probability ratio 0.91, CI 0.87 to 0.95). Normal weight children were more likely than overweight and obese children to meet guidelines (probability ratio 1.25, CI 1.16 to 1.34). Children in urban areas were more likely to meet guidelines than those in rural areas (probability ratio 1.19, CI 1.07 to 1.33). Longer daylight length days were associated with greater probability of meeting guidelines compared to shorter daylight length days. PA levels differed by individual factors including age, gender and weight status as well as by environmental factors including residence and daylight length. Less than one-quarter of children (26.8% boys, 16.2% girls) meet guidelines. Effective intervention policies are urgently needed to increase PA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Cl, P2O5, U and Br associated with mineral separates from a low and a high Ti mare basalt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jovanovic, S.; Reed, G. W., Jr.

1980-01-01

Low Ti basalt 12040 and high Ti basalt 75055 have approximately the same Cl/P2O5 ratio; the Cl is that remaining after a hot water leach. Pyroxene, plagioclase and ilmenite minerals separated from the basalts also tend to have this same Cl/P2O5 ratio. This is evidence that these major minerals do not control the ratio since Cl and P would not be expected to partition to the same extent into each mineral. Olivine appears to be a special case. It is proposed that the grains measured contained inclusions with leachable and P2O5-related Cl. Dilute acid leaches of whole rock and separated minerals have the same or nearly the same Cl/P2O5 ratios as the residual samples. Apatite and whitlockite were probably the phases leached. They must be constituents of the mesostasis and are present as microminerals or coatings on major mineral grains. The acid leach results imply little or no partition of Cl and P2O5 into major minerals.

Diastolic dysfunction is associated with insulin resistance, but not with aldosterone level in normotensive offspring of hypertensive families.

PubMed

Zizek, Bogomir; Poredos, Pavel; Trojar, Andrej; Zeljko, Tadej

2008-01-01

We investigated left ventricular (LV) morphology and function in association with insulin level/insulin resistance (IR) and aldosterone level in normotensive offspring of subjects with essential hypertension (familial trait, FT). The study encompassed 76 volunteers of whom 44 were normotensive with FT (aged 28-39 years) and 32 age-matched controls without FT. LV mass and function were measured using conventional echocardiography and tissue Doppler imaging. LV diastolic function was reported as peak septal annular velocities (E(m) and E(m)/A(m) ratio) in tissue Doppler imaging. Fasting insulin and aldosterone were determined. In subjects with FT, the LV mass was higher than in controls (92.14 +/- 24.02 vs. 70.08 +/- 20.58 g; p < 0.001). The study group had a worse LV diastolic function than control subjects (lower E(m) and E(m)/A(m) ratio; p < 0.001). In subjects with FT, the E(m)/A(m) ratio was independently associated with IR (partial p = 0.029 in multivariate model, R(2) = 0.51), but not with LV mass. The aldosterone level was comparable in both groups. In normotensive individuals with FT, LV morphological and functional abnormalities were found. LV dysfunction but not an increase in LV mass is associated with IR. The aldosterone level is probably not responsible for the development of early hypertensive heart disease. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Clinical decision-making: predictors of patient participation in nursing care.

PubMed

Florin, Jan; Ehrenberg, Anna; Ehnfors, Margareta

2008-11-01

To investigate predictors of patients' preferences for participation in clinical decision-making in inpatient nursing care. Patient participation in decision-making in nursing care is regarded as a prerequisite for good clinical practice regarding the person's autonomy and integrity. A cross-sectional survey of 428 persons, newly discharged from inpatient care. The survey was conducted using the Control Preference Scale. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used for testing the association of patient characteristics with preferences for participation. Patients, in general, preferred adopting a passive role. However, predictors for adopting an active participatory role were the patient's gender (odds ratio = 1.8), education (odds ratio = 2.2), living condition (odds ratio = 1.8) and occupational status (odds ratio = 2.0). A probability of 53% was estimated, which female senior citizens with at least a high school degree and who lived alone would prefer an active role in clinical decision-making. At the same time, a working cohabiting male with less than a high school degree had a probability of 8% for active participation in clinical decision making in nursing care. Patient preferences for participation differed considerably and are best elicited by assessment of the individual patient. Relevance to clinical practice. The nurses have a professional responsibility to act in such a way that patients can participate and make decisions according to their own values from an informed position. Access to knowledge of patients'basic assumptions and preferences for participation is of great value for nurses in the care process. There is a need for nurses to use structured methods and tools for eliciting individual patient preferences regarding participation in clinical decision-making.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wampler, William R.; Ding, R.; Stangeby, P. C.

The three-dimensional Monte Carlo code ERO has been used to simulate dedicated DIII-D experiments in which Mo and W samples with different sizes were exposed to controlled and well-diagnosed divertor plasma conditions to measure the gross and net erosion rates. Experimentally, the net erosion rate is significantly reduced due to the high local redeposition probability of eroded high-Z materials, which according to the modelling is mainly controlled by the electric field and plasma density within the Chodura sheath. Similar redeposition ratios were obtained from ERO modelling with three different sheath models for small angles between the magnetic field and themore » material surface, mainly because of their similar mean ionization lengths. The modelled redeposition ratios are close to the measured value. Decreasing the potential drop across the sheath can suppress both gross and net erosion because sputtering yield is decreased due to lower incident energy while the redeposition ratio is not reduced owing to the higher electron density in the Chodura sheath. Taking into account material mixing in the ERO surface model, the net erosion rate of high-Z materials is shown to be strongly dependent on the carbon impurity concentration in the background plasma; higher carbon concentration can suppress net erosion. As a result, the principal experimental results such as net erosion rate and profile and redeposition ratio are well reproduced by the ERO simulations.« less

Integrating statistical and process-based models to produce probabilistic landslide hazard at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.

2017-12-01

We develop a landslide hazard modeling approach that integrates a data-driven statistical model and a probabilistic process-based shallow landslide model for mapping probability of landslide initiation, transport, and deposition at regional scales. The empirical model integrates the influence of seven site attribute (SA) classes: elevation, slope, curvature, aspect, land use-land cover, lithology, and topographic wetness index, on over 1,600 observed landslides using a frequency ratio (FR) approach. A susceptibility index is calculated by adding FRs for each SA on a grid-cell basis. Using landslide observations we relate susceptibility index to an empirically-derived probability of landslide impact. This probability is combined with results from a physically-based model to produce an integrated probabilistic map. Slope was key in landslide initiation while deposition was linked to lithology and elevation. Vegetation transition from forest to alpine vegetation and barren land cover with lower root cohesion leads to higher frequency of initiation. Aspect effects are likely linked to differences in root cohesion and moisture controlled by solar insulation and snow. We demonstrate the model in the North Cascades of Washington, USA and identify locations of high and low probability of landslide impacts that can be used by land managers in their design, planning, and maintenance.

Stochastic mechanics of loose boundary particle transport in turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Subhasish; Ali, Sk Zeeshan

2017-05-01

In a turbulent wall shear flow, we explore, for the first time, the stochastic mechanics of loose boundary particle transport, having variable particle protrusions due to various cohesionless particle packing densities. The mean transport probabilities in contact and detachment modes are obtained. The mean transport probabilities in these modes as a function of Shields number (nondimensional fluid induced shear stress at the boundary) for different relative particle sizes (ratio of boundary roughness height to target particle diameter) and shear Reynolds numbers (ratio of fluid inertia to viscous damping) are presented. The transport probability in contact mode increases with an increase in Shields number attaining a peak and then decreases, while that in detachment mode increases monotonically. For the hydraulically transitional and rough flow regimes, the transport probability curves in contact mode for a given relative particle size of greater than or equal to unity attain their peaks corresponding to the averaged critical Shields numbers, from where the transport probability curves in detachment mode initiate. At an inception of particle transport, the mean probabilities in both the modes increase feebly with an increase in shear Reynolds number. Further, for a given particle size, the mean probability in contact mode increases with a decrease in critical Shields number attaining a critical value and then increases. However, the mean probability in detachment mode increases with a decrease in critical Shields number.

Intrusion Detection System Using Deep Neural Network for In-Vehicle Network Security.

PubMed

Kang, Min-Joo; Kang, Je-Won

2016-01-01

A novel intrusion detection system (IDS) using a deep neural network (DNN) is proposed to enhance the security of in-vehicular network. The parameters building the DNN structure are trained with probability-based feature vectors that are extracted from the in-vehicular network packets. For a given packet, the DNN provides the probability of each class discriminating normal and attack packets, and, thus the sensor can identify any malicious attack to the vehicle. As compared to the traditional artificial neural network applied to the IDS, the proposed technique adopts recent advances in deep learning studies such as initializing the parameters through the unsupervised pre-training of deep belief networks (DBN), therefore improving the detection accuracy. It is demonstrated with experimental results that the proposed technique can provide a real-time response to the attack with a significantly improved detection ratio in controller area network (CAN) bus.

Intrusion Detection System Using Deep Neural Network for In-Vehicle Network Security

PubMed Central

Kang, Min-Joo

2016-01-01

A novel intrusion detection system (IDS) using a deep neural network (DNN) is proposed to enhance the security of in-vehicular network. The parameters building the DNN structure are trained with probability-based feature vectors that are extracted from the in-vehicular network packets. For a given packet, the DNN provides the probability of each class discriminating normal and attack packets, and, thus the sensor can identify any malicious attack to the vehicle. As compared to the traditional artificial neural network applied to the IDS, the proposed technique adopts recent advances in deep learning studies such as initializing the parameters through the unsupervised pre-training of deep belief networks (DBN), therefore improving the detection accuracy. It is demonstrated with experimental results that the proposed technique can provide a real-time response to the attack with a significantly improved detection ratio in controller area network (CAN) bus. PMID:27271802

Too True to be Bad: When Sets of Studies With Significant and Nonsignificant Findings Are Probably True.

PubMed

Lakens, Daniël; Etz, Alexander J

2017-11-01

Psychology journals rarely publish nonsignificant results. At the same time, it is often very unlikely (or "too good to be true") that a set of studies yields exclusively significant results. Here, we use likelihood ratios to explain when sets of studies that contain a mix of significant and nonsignificant results are likely to be true or "too true to be bad." As we show, mixed results are not only likely to be observed in lines of research but also, when observed, often provide evidence for the alternative hypothesis, given reasonable levels of statistical power and an adequately controlled low Type 1 error rate. Researchers should feel comfortable submitting such lines of research with an internal meta-analysis for publication. A better understanding of probabilities, accompanied by more realistic expectations of what real sets of studies look like, might be an important step in mitigating publication bias in the scientific literature.

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios of sodium and potassium cyanide as a forensic signature.

PubMed

Kreuzer, Helen W; Horita, Juske; Moran, James J; Tomkins, Bruce A; Janszen, Derek B; Carman, April

2012-01-01

Sodium and potassium cyanide are highly toxic, produced in large amounts by the chemical industry, and linked to numerous high-profile crimes. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified cyanide as one of the most probable agents to be used in a chemical terrorism event. We investigated whether stable C and N isotopic content of sodium and potassium cyanide could serve as a forensic signature for sample matching, using a collection of 65 cyanide samples. Upon analysis, a few of the cyanide samples displayed nonhomogeneous isotopic content associated with degradation to a carbonate salt and loss of hydrogen cyanide. Most samples had highly reproducible isotope content. Of the 65 cyanide samples, >95% could be properly matched based on C and N isotope ratios, with a false match rate <3%. These results suggest that stable C and N isotope ratios are a useful forensic signature for matching cyanide samples. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Stable Carbon and Nitrogen Isotope Ratios of Sodium and Potassium Cyanide as a Forensic Signature

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kruzer, Helen W; Horita, Juske; Moran, James J

2012-01-01

Sodium and potassium cyanide are highly toxic, produced in large amounts by the chemical industry, and linked to numerous high-profile crimes. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified cyanide as one of the most probable agents to be used in a future chemical terrorism event. We investigated whether stable C and N isotopic content of sodium and potassium cyanide could serve as a forensic signature for sample matching, using a collection of 65 cyanide samples. A few of these samples displayed non-homogeneous isotopic content associated with degradation to a carbonate salt and loss of hydrogen cyanide. Mostmore » samples had highly reproducible isotope content. Of these, >95% could be properly matched based on C and N isotope ratios, with a false match rate <3%. These results suggest that stable C and N isotope ratios are a useful forensic signature for matching cyanide samples.« less

Optimization of Adaptive Intraply Hybrid Fiber Composites with Reliability Considerations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiao, Michael C.; Chamis, Christos C.

1994-01-01

The reliability with bounded distribution parameters (mean, standard deviation) was maximized and the reliability-based cost was minimized for adaptive intra-ply hybrid fiber composites by using a probabilistic method. The probabilistic method accounts for all naturally occurring uncertainties including those in constituent material properties, fabrication variables, structure geometry, and control-related parameters. Probabilistic sensitivity factors were computed and used in the optimization procedures. For actuated change in the angle of attack of an airfoil-like composite shell structure with an adaptive torque plate, the reliability was maximized to 0.9999 probability, with constraints on the mean and standard deviation of the actuation material volume ratio (percentage of actuation composite material in a ply) and the actuation strain coefficient. The reliability-based cost was minimized for an airfoil-like composite shell structure with an adaptive skin and a mean actuation material volume ratio as the design parameter. At a O.9-mean actuation material volume ratio, the minimum cost was obtained.

Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures.

PubMed

Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

2016-01-01

The statistical evidence obtained from mixed DNA profiles can be summarised in several ways in forensic casework including the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) probability. The literature has seen a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of likelihood ratios and exclusion probabilities, and part of our aim is to bring some clarification to this debate. In a previous paper, we proved that there is a general mathematical relationship between these statistics: RMNE can be expressed as a certain average of the LR, implying that the expected value of the LR, when applied to an actual contributor to the mixture, is at least equal to the inverse of the RMNE. While the mentioned paper presented applications for kinship problems, the current paper demonstrates the relevance for mixture cases, and for this purpose, we prove some new general properties. We also demonstrate how to use the distribution of the likelihood ratio for donors of a mixture, to obtain estimates for exceedance probabilities of the LR for non-donors, of which the RMNE is a special case corresponding to L R>0. In order to derive these results, we need to view the likelihood ratio as a random variable. In this paper, we describe how such a randomization can be achieved. The RMNE is usually invoked only for mixtures without dropout. In mixtures, artefacts like dropout and drop-in are commonly encountered and we address this situation too, illustrating our results with a basic but widely implemented model, a so-called binary model. The precise definitions, modelling and interpretation of the required concepts of dropout and drop-in are not entirely obvious, and we attempt to clarify them here in a general likelihood framework for a binary model.

Diagnostic testing for coagulopathies in patients with ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Bushnell, C D; Goldstein, L B

2000-12-01

Hypercoagulable states are a recognized, albeit uncommon, etiology of ischemic stroke. It is unclear how often the results of specialized coagulation tests affect management. Using data compiled from a systematic review of available studies, we employed quantitative methodology to assess the diagnostic yield of coagulation tests for identification of coagulopathies in ischemic stroke patients. We performed a MEDLINE search to identify controlled studies published during 1966-1999 that reported the prevalence of deficiencies of protein C, protein S, antithrombin III, plasminogen, activated protein C resistance (APCR)/factor V Leiden mutation (FVL), anticardiolipin antibodies (ACL), or lupus anticoagulant (LA) in patients with ischemic stroke. The cumulative prevalence rates (pretest probabilities) and positive likelihood ratios for all studies and for those including only patients aged

Exploring the complexity of quantum control optimization trajectories.

PubMed

Nanduri, Arun; Shir, Ofer M; Donovan, Ashley; Ho, Tak-San; Rabitz, Herschel

2015-01-07

The control of quantum system dynamics is generally performed by seeking a suitable applied field. The physical objective as a functional of the field forms the quantum control landscape, whose topology, under certain conditions, has been shown to contain no critical point suboptimal traps, thereby enabling effective searches for fields that give the global maximum of the objective. This paper addresses the structure of the landscape as a complement to topological critical point features. Recent work showed that landscape structure is highly favorable for optimization of state-to-state transition probabilities, in that gradient-based control trajectories to the global maximum value are nearly straight paths. The landscape structure is codified in the metric R ≥ 1.0, defined as the ratio of the length of the control trajectory to the Euclidean distance between the initial and optimal controls. A value of R = 1 would indicate an exactly straight trajectory to the optimal observable value. This paper extends the state-to-state transition probability results to the quantum ensemble and unitary transformation control landscapes. Again, nearly straight trajectories predominate, and we demonstrate that R can take values approaching 1.0 with high precision. However, the interplay of optimization trajectories with critical saddle submanifolds is found to influence landscape structure. A fundamental relationship necessary for perfectly straight gradient-based control trajectories is derived, wherein the gradient on the quantum control landscape must be an eigenfunction of the Hessian. This relation is an indicator of landscape structure and may provide a means to identify physical conditions when control trajectories can achieve perfect linearity. The collective favorable landscape topology and structure provide a foundation to understand why optimal quantum control can be readily achieved.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of dose-dense versus standard intravenous chemotherapy for ovarian cancer: An economic analysis of results from the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Seagle, Brandon-Luke L; Shahabi, Shohreh

2017-04-01

To determine the cost-effectiveness of dose-dense versus standard intravenous adjuvant chemotherapy for ovarian cancer using results from the no-bevacizumab cohort of the Gynecologic Oncology Group protocol 262 (GOG-262) randomized controlled trial, which reported a smaller absolute progression-free survival (PFS) benefit than the prior Japanese trial. A three-state Markov decision model from a healthcare system perspective with a 21day cycle length and 28month time-horizon was used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) values per progression-free life-year saved (PFLYS) using results from GOG-262. Costs of chemotherapy, complications, and surveillance were from Medicare or institutional data. PFS, discontinuation, and complication rates were from GOG-262. Time-dependent transition probabilities and within-cycle corrections were used. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The model produces standard and dose-dense cohorts with 84.3% and 68.3% progression event proportions at 28months, matching GOG-262 rates at the trial's median follow-up. With a median PFS of 10.3months after standard chemotherapy and a hazard ratio for progression of 0.62 after dose-dense therapy, the ICER for dose-dense chemotherapy is $8074.25 (95% confidence interval: $7615.97-$10,207.16) per PFLYS. ICER estimates are sensitive only to the hazard ratio estimate but do not exceed $100,000 per PFLYS. 99.8% of ICER estimates met a more stringent willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per PFLYS. The willingness-to-pay value at which there is a 90% probability of dose-dense treatment being cost-effective is $12,000 per PFLYS. Dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy is robustly cost-effective for advanced ovarian cancer from a healthcare system perspective based on results from GOG-262. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relative influences of solution composition and presence of intracrystalline proteins on magnesium incorporation in calcium carbonate minerals: Insight into vital effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermans, Julie; André, Luc; Navez, Jacques; Pernet, Philippe; Dubois, Philippe

2011-03-01

Biogenic calcites may contain considerable magnesium concentrations, significantly higher than those observed in inorganic calcites. Control of ion concentrations in the calcifying space by transport systems and properties of the organic matrix of mineralization are probably involved in the incorporation of high magnesium quantities in biogenic calcites, but their relative effects have never been quantified. In vitro precipitation experiments performed at different Mg/Ca ratios in the solution and in the presence of soluble organic matrix macromolecules (SOM) extracted from sea urchin tests and spines showed that, at a constant temperature, magnesium incorporation in the precipitated minerals was mainly dependent on the Mg/Ca ratio of the solution. However, a significant increase in magnesium incorporation was observed in the presence of SOM compared with control experiments. Furthermore, this effect was more pronounced with SOM extracted from the test, which was richer in magnesium than the spines. According to SEM observations, amorphous calcium carbonate was precipitated at high Mg/Casolution. The observed predominant effect of Mg/Casolution, probably mediated in vivo by ion transport to and from the calcifying space, was suggested to induce and stabilize a transient magnesium-rich amorphous phase essential to the formation of high magnesium calcites. Aspartic acid rich proteins, shown to be more abundant in the test than in the spine matrix, further stabilize this amorphous phase. The involvement of the organic matrix in this process can explain the observation that sympatric organisms or even different skeletal elements of the same individual present different skeletal magnesium concentrations.

Osmium Isotope Systematics of Ureilites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rankenburg, K.; Brandon, A. d.; Humayun, M.

2007-01-01

The Os-187/Os-188 for twenty-two ureilite whole rock samples, including monomict, augite-bearing, and polymict lithologies, were examined in order to constrain the provenance and subsequent magmatic processing of the ureilite parent body (or bodies). The Re/Os ratios of most ureilites show evidence for a recent disturbance, probably related to Re mobility during weathering, and no meaningful chronological information can be extracted from the present data set. The ureilite Os-187/Os-188 ratios span a range from 0.11739 to 0.13018, with an average of 0.1258+/-0.0023 (1(sigma)), similar to typical carbonaceous chondrites, and distinct from ordinary or enstatite chondrites. The similar mean of Os-187/Os-188 measured for the ureilites and carbonaceous chondrites suggests that the ureilite parent body probably formed within the same region of the solar nebula as carbonaceous chondrites. From the narrow range of the 187Os/188Os distribution in ureilite meteorites it is further concluded that Re was not significantly fractionated from Os during planetary differentiation and was not lost along with the missing ureilitic melt component. The lack of large Re/Os fractionations requires that Re/Os partitioning was controlled by a metal phase, and thus metal had to be stable throughout the interval of magmatic processing on the ureilite parent body.

Sequential Probability Ratio Testing with Power Projective Base Method Improves Decision-Making for BCI

PubMed Central

Liu, Rong

2017-01-01

Obtaining a fast and reliable decision is an important issue in brain-computer interfaces (BCI), particularly in practical real-time applications such as wheelchair or neuroprosthetic control. In this study, the EEG signals were firstly analyzed with a power projective base method. Then we were applied a decision-making model, the sequential probability ratio testing (SPRT), for single-trial classification of motor imagery movement events. The unique strength of this proposed classification method lies in its accumulative process, which increases the discriminative power as more and more evidence is observed over time. The properties of the method were illustrated on thirteen subjects' recordings from three datasets. Results showed that our proposed power projective method outperformed two benchmark methods for every subject. Moreover, with sequential classifier, the accuracies across subjects were significantly higher than that with nonsequential ones. The average maximum accuracy of the SPRT method was 84.1%, as compared with 82.3% accuracy for the sequential Bayesian (SB) method. The proposed SPRT method provides an explicit relationship between stopping time, thresholds, and error, which is important for balancing the time-accuracy trade-off. These results suggest SPRT would be useful in speeding up decision-making while trading off errors in BCI. PMID:29348781

Analysis of binary responses with outcome-specific misclassification probability in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Rekaya, Romdhane; Smith, Shannon; Hay, El Hamidi; Farhat, Nourhene; Aggrey, Samuel E

2016-01-01

Errors in the binary status of some response traits are frequent in human, animal, and plant applications. These error rates tend to differ between cases and controls because diagnostic and screening tests have different sensitivity and specificity. This increases the inaccuracies of classifying individuals into correct groups, giving rise to both false-positive and false-negative cases. The analysis of these noisy binary responses due to misclassification will undoubtedly reduce the statistical power of genome-wide association studies (GWAS). A threshold model that accommodates varying diagnostic errors between cases and controls was investigated. A simulation study was carried out where several binary data sets (case-control) were generated with varying effects for the most influential single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and different diagnostic error rate for cases and controls. Each simulated data set consisted of 2000 individuals. Ignoring misclassification resulted in biased estimates of true influential SNP effects and inflated estimates for true noninfluential markers. A substantial reduction in bias and increase in accuracy ranging from 12% to 32% was observed when the misclassification procedure was invoked. In fact, the majority of influential SNPs that were not identified using the noisy data were captured using the proposed method. Additionally, truly misclassified binary records were identified with high probability using the proposed method. The superiority of the proposed method was maintained across different simulation parameters (misclassification rates and odds ratios) attesting to its robustness.

Relation between nitrate and nitrite food habits with lung cancer.

PubMed

Karimzadeh, Laleh; Koohdani, Fariba; Siassi, Fereydoon; Mahmoudi, Mahmoud; Moslemi, Daryoush; Safari, Farid

2012-01-01

Nitrites, a probable human carcinogen, generate reactive nitrogen species that may cause damage to the lung. We evaluated the association between nutritional habits related to nitrite and nitrate intake and risk of lung cancer in Mazandaran, Northern Province of Iran. In this case-control study the two groups were matched for gender and age (+/- 5 years). A semi -quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was used to collect dietary data about nutritional habits related to nitrate, nitrite, vitamins E and C intake, from 40 lung cancer cases and 40 control subjects admitted at Mazanaran hospitals. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the risk of lung cancer using logistic regression. Mean score of nutritional habits in case group was significantly lower than that in control group (P less than or equal 0.001). We observed a positive association between animal sources of nitrate and nitrite intake (OR = 2.7, 95% CI: 0.13-0.96) and risk of lung cancer. Decreased risk of lung cancer was also observed with fruit intake (OR = 0.26, 95% CI: 1.3-11). Our results indicate a probable association between nutritional habits related to animal sources of nitrate and nitrite intake and the risk of lung cancer that requires to be confirmed by other studies.

Statistical Inference in Graphical Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-17

fuse probability theory and graph theory in such a way as to permit efficient rep- resentation and computation with probability distributions. They...message passing. 59 viii 1. INTRODUCTION In approaching real-world problems, we often need to deal with uncertainty. Probability and statis- tics provide a...dynamic programming methods. However, for many sensors of interest, the signal-to-noise ratio does not allow such a treatment. Another source of

Anytime synthetic projection: Maximizing the probability of goal satisfaction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, Mark; Bresina, John L.

1990-01-01

A projection algorithm is presented for incremental control rule synthesis. The algorithm synthesizes an initial set of goal achieving control rules using a combination of situation probability and estimated remaining work as a search heuristic. This set of control rules has a certain probability of satisfying the given goal. The probability is incrementally increased by synthesizing additional control rules to handle 'error' situations the execution system is likely to encounter when following the initial control rules. By using situation probabilities, the algorithm achieves a computationally effective balance between the limited robustness of triangle tables and the absolute robustness of universal plans.

The Effect of Scattering and Absorption on Noise from a Cavitating Noise Source in the Subsurface Ocean Layer.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

for a de- tection probability of PD and associated false alarm probability PFA (in dB). 21 - - - II V. REFERENCE MODEL A. INTRODUCTION In order to...space for which to choose HI . PFA = P (wI 0o)dw = Q(---) (26) j 0 Similarity, the miss probability=l-detection probability is obtained by integrating...31) = 2 (1+ (22 [()BT z] ~Z The input signal-to-noise ratio: S/N(input) - a2 (32) The probability of false alarm: PFA = Q[ tB(j-I) 1 (33) The

An automatic frequency control loop using overlapping DFTs (Discrete Fourier Transforms)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aguirre, S.

1988-01-01

An automatic frequency control (AFC) loop is introduced and analyzed in detail. The new scheme is a generalization of the well known Cross Product AFC loop that uses running overlapping discrete Fourier transforms (DFTs) to create a discriminator curve. Linear analysis is included and supported with computer simulations. The algorithm is tested in a low carrier to noise ratio (CNR) dynamic environment, and the probability of loss of lock is estimated via computer simulations. The algorithm discussed is a suboptimum tracking scheme with a larger frequency error variance compared to an optimum strategy, but offers simplicity of implementation and a very low operating threshold CNR. This technique can be applied during the carrier acquisition and re-acquisition process in the Advanced Receiver.

DETERMINING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA HOST GALAXY EXTINCTION PROBABILITIES AND A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING THE ABSORPTION-TO-REDDENING RATIO R{sub V}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cikota, Aleksandar; Deustua, Susana; Marleau, Francine, E-mail: acikota@eso.org

We investigate limits on the extinction values of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to statistically determine the most probable color excess, E(B – V), with galactocentric distance, and use these statistics to determine the absorption-to-reddening ratio, R{sub V}, for dust in the host galaxies. We determined pixel-based dust mass surface density maps for 59 galaxies from the Key Insight on Nearby Galaxies: a Far-infrared Survey with Herschel (KINGFISH). We use SN Ia spectral templates to develop a Monte Carlo simulation of color excess E(B – V) with R{sub V} = 3.1 and investigate the color excess probabilities E(B – V) with projected radial galaxymore » center distance. Additionally, we tested our model using observed spectra of SN 1989B, SN 2002bo, and SN 2006X, which occurred in three KINGFISH galaxies. Finally, we determined the most probable reddening for Sa–Sap, Sab–Sbp, Sbc–Scp, Scd–Sdm, S0, and irregular galaxy classes as a function of R/R{sub 25}. We find that the largest expected reddening probabilities are in Sab–Sb and Sbc–Sc galaxies, while S0 and irregular galaxies are very dust poor. We present a new approach for determining the absorption-to-reddening ratio R{sub V} using color excess probability functions and find values of R{sub V} = 2.71 ± 1.58 for 21 SNe Ia observed in Sab–Sbp galaxies, and R{sub V} = 1.70 ± 0.38, for 34 SNe Ia observed in Sbc–Scp galaxies.« less

The association between hyperoxia and patient outcomes after cardiac arrest: Analysis of a high-resolution database

PubMed Central

Elmer, Jonathan; Scutella, Michael; Pullalarevu, Raghevesh; Wang, Bo; Vaghasia, Nishit; Trzeciak, Stephen; Rosario-Rivera, Bedda L.; Guyette, Francis X.; Rittenberger, Jon C.; Dezfulian, Cameron

2014-01-01

Purpose Previous observational studies have inconsistently associated early hyperoxia with worse outcomes after cardiac arrest and have methodological limitations. We tested this association using a high-resolution database controlling for multiple disease-specific markers of severity of illness and care processes. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of a single-center, prospective registry of consecutive cardiac arrest patients. We included patients who survived and were mechanically ventilated ≥24h after arrest. Our main exposure was arterial oxygen tension (PaO2), which we categorized hourly for 24 hours as severe hyperoxia (>300mmHg), moderate or probable hyperoxia (101-299mmHg), normoxia (60-100mmHg) or hypoxia (<60mmHg). We controlled for Utstein-style covariates, markers of disease severity and markers of care responsiveness. We performed unadjusted and multiple logistic regression to test the association between oxygen exposure and survival to discharge, and used ordered logistic regression to test the association of oxygen exposure with neurological outcome and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score at 24h. Results Of 184 patients, 36% were exposed to severe hyperoxia and overall mortality was 54%. Severe hyperoxia, but not moderate or probable hyperoxia, was associated with decreased survival in both unadjusted and adjusted analysis (adjusted odds ratio (OR) for survival 0.83 per hour exposure, P=0.04). Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with survival but was associated with improved SOFA score 24h (OR 0.92, P<0.01). Conclusion Severe hyperoxia was independently associated with decreased survival to hospital discharge. Moderate or probable hyperoxia was not associated with decreased survival and was associated with improved organ function at 24h. PMID:25472570

Change-in-ratio estimators for populations with more than two subclasses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

1991-01-01

Change-in-ratio methods have been developed to estimate the size of populations with two or three population subclasses. Most of these methods require the often unreasonable assumption of equal sampling probabilities for individuals in all subclasses. This paper presents new models based on the weaker assumption that ratios of sampling probabilities are constant over time for populations with three or more subclasses. Estimation under these models requires that a value be assumed for one of these ratios when there are two samples. Explicit expressions are given for the maximum likelihood estimators under models for two samples with three or more subclasses and for three samples with two subclasses. A numerical method using readily available statistical software is described for obtaining the estimators and their standard errors under all of the models. Likelihood ratio tests that can be used in model selection are discussed. Emphasis is on the two-sample, three-subclass models for which Monte-Carlo simulation results and an illustrative example are presented.

Optimum detection of tones transmitted by a spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, M. K.; Shihabi, M. M.; Moon, T.

1995-01-01

The performance of a scheme proposed for automated routine monitoring of deep-space missions is presented. The scheme uses four different tones (sinusoids) transmitted from the spacecraft (S/C) to a ground station with the positive identification of each of them used to indicate different states of the S/C. Performance is measured in terms of detection probability versus false alarm probability with detection signal-to-noise ratio as a parameter. The cases where the phase of the received tone is unknown and where both the phase and frequency of the received tone are unknown are treated separately. The decision rules proposed for detecting the tones are formulated from average-likelihood ratio and maximum-likelihood ratio tests, the former resulting in optimum receiver structures.

Risk Factors for Podoconiosis: Kamwenge District, Western Uganda, September 2015.

PubMed

Kihembo, Christine; Masiira, Ben; Lali, William Z; Matwale, Gabriel K; Matovu, Joseph K B; Kaharuza, Frank; Ario, Alex R; Nabukenya, Immaculate; Makumbi, Issa; Musenero, Monica; Zhu, Bao-Ping; Nanyunja, Miriam

2017-06-01

AbstractPodoconiosis, a noninfectious elephantiasis, is a disabling neglected tropical disease. In August 2015, an elephantiasis case-cluster was reported in Kamwenge District, western Uganda. We investigated to identify the disease's nature and risk factors. We defined a suspected podoconiosis case as onset in a Kamwenge resident of bilateral asymmetrical lower limb swelling lasting ≥ 1 month, plus ≥ 1 of the following associated symptoms: skin itching, burning sensation, plantar edema, lymph ooze, prominent skin markings, rigid toes, or mossy papillomata. A probable case was a suspected case with negative microfilaria antigen immunochromatographic card test (ruling out filarial elephantiasis). We conducted active case-finding. In a case-control investigation, we tested the hypothesis that the disease was caused by prolonged foot skin exposure to irritant soils, using 40 probable case-persons and 80 asymptomatic village control-persons, individually matched by age and sex. We collected soil samples to characterize irritants. We identified 52 suspected (including 40 probable) cases with onset from 1980 to 2015. Prevalence rates increased with age; annual incidence (by reported onset of disease) was stable over time at 2.9/100,000. We found that 93% (37/40) of cases and 68% (54/80) of controls never wore shoes at work (Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio [OR MH ] = 7.7; 95% [confidence interval] CI = 2.0-30); 80% (32/40) of cases and 49% (39/80) of controls never wore shoes at home (OR MH = 5.2; 95% CI = 1.8-15); and 70% (27/39) of cases and 44% (35/79) of controls washed feet at day end (versus immediately after work) (OR = 11; 95% CI = 2.1-56). Soil samples were characterized as rich black-red volcanic clays. In conclusion, this reported elephantiasis is podoconiosis associated with prolonged foot exposure to volcanic soil. We recommended foot hygiene and universal use of protective shoes.

A Case–control and a family-based association study revealing an association between CYP2E1 polymorphisms and nasopharyngeal carcinoma risk in Cantonese

PubMed Central

Jia, Wei-Hua; Pan, Qing-Hua; Qin, Hai-De; Xu, Ya-Fei; Shen, Guo-Ping; Chen, Lina; Chen, Li-Zhen; Feng, Qi-Sheng; Hong, Ming-Huang; Zeng, Yi-Xin; Shugart, Yin Yao

2009-01-01

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is rare in most parts of the world but is more prevalent in Southern China, especially in Guangdong. The cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1) has been recognized as one of the critically important enzymes involved in oxidizing carcinogens and is probably to be associated with NPC carcinogenesis. To systematically investigate the association between genetic variants in CYP2E1 and NPC risk in Cantonese, two independent studies, a family-based association study and a case–control study, were conducted using the haplotype-tagging single-nucleotide polymorphism approach. A total of 2499 individuals from 546 nuclear families were initially genotyped for the family-based association study. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs9418990, rs915908, rs8192780, rs1536826, rs3827688 and one haplotype h2 (CGTGTTAA) were revealed to be significantly associated with the NPC phenotype (P = 0.045–0.003 and P = 0.003, respectively). To follow up the initial study, a case–control study including 755 cases and 755 controls was conducted. Similar results were observed in the case–control study in individuals <46 years of age and had a history of cigarette smoking, with odds ratios (ORs) of specific genotypes ranging from 1.88 to 2.99 corresponding to SNP rs9418990, rs3813865, rs915906, rs2249695, rs8192780, rs1536826, rs3827688 and of haplotypes h2 with OR = 1.65 (P = 0.026), h5 (CCCGTTAA) with OR = 2.58 (P = 0.007). The values of false-positive report probability were <0.015 for six SNPs, suggesting that the reported associations are less probably to be false. This study provides robust evidence for associations between genetic variants of CYP2E1 and NPC risk. PMID:19805575

75 FR 66271 - Assessment Dividends, Assessment Rates and Designated Reserve Ratio

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-27

... has recovered to pre-crisis levels, and the long term, when the reserve ratio is sufficiently large... detail below, concludes that a moderate, long-term average industry assessment rate, combined with an... and earnings of IDIs. Long Term To increase the probability that the fund reserve ratio will reach a...

High spatial resolution Mg/Al maps of the western Crisium and Sulpicius Gallus regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonfeld, E.

1982-01-01

High spatial resolution Mg/Al ratio maps of the western Crisium and Sulpicius Gallus regions of the moon are presented. The data is from the X-ray fluorescence experiment and the image enhancement technique in the Laplacian subtraction method using a special least-squares version of the Laplacian to reduce noise amplification. In the highlands region west of Mare Crisium several relatively small patches of smooth material have high local Mg/Al ratio similar to values found in mare sites, suggesting volcanism in the highlands. In the same highland region there were other smooth areas with no high Mg/Al local values and they are probably Cayley Formation material produced by impact mass wasting. The Sulpicius Gallus region has variable Mg/Al ratios. In this region there are several high Mg/Al ratio spots, two of which occur at the highland-mare interface. Another high Mg/Al ratio area corresponds to the Sulpicius Gallus Rima I region. The high Mg/Al ratio material in the Sulpicius Gallus region is probably pyroclastic.

Looking beyond patients: Can parents' quality of life predict asthma control in children?

PubMed

Cano-Garcinuño, Alfredo; Mora-Gandarillas, Isabel; Bercedo-Sanz, Alberto; Callén-Blecua, María Teresa; Castillo-Laita, José Antonio; Casares-Alonso, Irene; Forns-Serrallonga, Dolors; Tauler-Toro, Eulàlia; Alonso-Bernardo, Luz María; García-Merino, Águeda; Moneo-Hernández, Isabel; Cortés-Rico, Olga; Carvajal-Urueña, Ignacio; Morell-Bernabé, Juan José; Martín-Ibáñez, Itziar; Rodríguez-Fernández-Oliva, Carmen Rosa; Asensi-Monzó, María Teresa; Fernández-Carazo, Carmen; Murcia-García, José; Durán-Iglesias, Catalina; Montón-Álvarez, José Luis; Domínguez-Aurrecoechea, Begoña; Praena-Crespo, Manuel

2016-07-01

Social and family factors may influence the probability of achieving asthma control in children. Parents' quality of life has been insufficiently explored as a predictive factor linked to the probability of achieving disease control in asthmatic children. Determine whether the parents' quality of life predicts medium-term asthma control in children. Longitudinal study of children between 4 and 14 years of age, with active asthma. The parents' quality of life was evaluated using the specific IFABI-R instrument, in which scores were higher for poorer quality of life. Its association with asthma control measures in the child 16 weeks later was analyzed using multivariate methods, adjusting the effect for disease, child and family factors. The data from 452 children were analyzed (median age 9.6 years, 63.3% males). The parents' quality of life was predictive for asthma control; each point increase on the initial IFABI-R score was associated with an adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.56 (0.37-0.86) for good control of asthma on the second visit, 2.58 (1.62-4.12) for asthma exacerbation, 2.12 (1.33-3.38) for an unscheduled visit to the doctor, and 2.46 (1.18-5.13) for going to the emergency room. The highest quartile for the IFABI-R score had a sensitivity of 34.5% and a specificity of 82.2% to predict poorly controlled asthma. Parents' poorer quality of life is related to poor, medium-term asthma control in children. Assessing the parents' quality of life could aid disease management decisions. Pediatr Pulmonol. 2016;51:670-677. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Shade Sails and Passive Recreation in Public Parks of Melbourne and Denver: A Randomized Intervention.

PubMed

Buller, David B; English, Dallas R; Buller, Mary Klein; Simmons, Jody; Chamberlain, James A; Wakefield, Melanie; Dobbinson, Suzanne

2017-12-01

To test whether shade sails will increase the use of passive recreation areas (PRAs). We conducted a stratified randomized pretest-posttest controlled design study in Melbourne, Australia, and Denver, Colorado, in 2010 to 2014. We randomized a sample of 144 public parks with 2 PRAs in full sun in a 1:3 ratio to treatment or control. Shade sails were built at 1 PRA per treatment park. The outcome was any use of the study PRA (n = 576 pretest and n = 576 posttest observations; 100% follow-up). Compared with control PRAs (adjusted probability of use: pretest = 0.14, posttest = 0.17), use of treatment PRAs (pretest = 0.10, posttest = 0.32) was higher at posttest (odds ratio [OR] = 3.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.71, 8.94). Shade increased use of PRAs in Denver (control: pretest = 0.18, posttest = 0.19; treatment: pretest = 0.16, posttest = 0.47) more than Melbourne (control: pretest = 0.11, posttest = 0.14; shaded: pretest = 0.06, posttest = 0.19; OR = 2.98; 95% CI = 1.09, 8.14). Public investment in shade is warranted for skin cancer prevention and may be especially useful in the United States. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02971709.

Shade Sails and Passive Recreation in Public Parks of Melbourne and Denver: A Randomized Intervention

PubMed Central

English, Dallas R.; Buller, Mary Klein; Simmons, Jody; Chamberlain, James A.; Wakefield, Melanie; Dobbinson, Suzanne

2017-01-01

Objectives. To test whether shade sails will increase the use of passive recreation areas (PRAs). Methods. We conducted a stratified randomized pretest–posttest controlled design study in Melbourne, Australia, and Denver, Colorado, in 2010 to 2014. We randomized a sample of 144 public parks with 2 PRAs in full sun in a 1:3 ratio to treatment or control. Shade sails were built at 1 PRA per treatment park. The outcome was any use of the study PRA (n = 576 pretest and n = 576 posttest observations; 100% follow-up). Results. Compared with control PRAs (adjusted probability of use: pretest = 0.14, posttest = 0.17), use of treatment PRAs (pretest = 0.10, posttest = 0.32) was higher at posttest (odds ratio [OR] = 3.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.71, 8.94). Shade increased use of PRAs in Denver (control: pretest = 0.18, posttest = 0.19; treatment: pretest = 0.16, posttest = 0.47) more than Melbourne (control: pretest = 0.11, posttest = 0.14; shaded: pretest = 0.06, posttest = 0.19; OR = 2.98; 95% CI = 1.09, 8.14). Conclusions. Public investment in shade is warranted for skin cancer prevention and may be especially useful in the United States. Trial Registration. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT02971709. PMID:29048958

The Two-Dimensional Gabor Function Adapted to Natural Image Statistics: A Model of Simple-Cell Receptive Fields and Sparse Structure in Images.

PubMed

Loxley, P N

2017-10-01

The two-dimensional Gabor function is adapted to natural image statistics, leading to a tractable probabilistic generative model that can be used to model simple cell receptive field profiles, or generate basis functions for sparse coding applications. Learning is found to be most pronounced in three Gabor function parameters representing the size and spatial frequency of the two-dimensional Gabor function and characterized by a nonuniform probability distribution with heavy tails. All three parameters are found to be strongly correlated, resulting in a basis of multiscale Gabor functions with similar aspect ratios and size-dependent spatial frequencies. A key finding is that the distribution of receptive-field sizes is scale invariant over a wide range of values, so there is no characteristic receptive field size selected by natural image statistics. The Gabor function aspect ratio is found to be approximately conserved by the learning rules and is therefore not well determined by natural image statistics. This allows for three distinct solutions: a basis of Gabor functions with sharp orientation resolution at the expense of spatial-frequency resolution, a basis of Gabor functions with sharp spatial-frequency resolution at the expense of orientation resolution, or a basis with unit aspect ratio. Arbitrary mixtures of all three cases are also possible. Two parameters controlling the shape of the marginal distributions in a probabilistic generative model fully account for all three solutions. The best-performing probabilistic generative model for sparse coding applications is found to be a gaussian copula with Pareto marginal probability density functions.

The effect of Helicobacter pylori infection and eradication in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: A parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicentre study.

PubMed

Schwizer, Werner; Menne, Dieter; Schütze, Kurt; Vieth, Michael; Goergens, Reiner; Malfertheiner, Peter; Leodolter, Andreas; Fried, Michael; Fox, Mark R

2013-08-01

This study aimed to resolve controversy regarding the effects of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy and H. pylori infection in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease. A randomized, double-blind, multicentre trial was performed in patients presenting with reflux symptoms. H. pylori-positive patients were randomized to receive either antibiotics or placebo for 7 days. H. pylori-negative patient controls received placebo. All received esomeprazole 20 mg b.d. for 7 days, followed by 40 mg o.d. to complete an 8-week course, and were followed up for 32 weeks by telephone. In this study, 198/589 (34%) patients were H. pylori-positive and 113 H. pylori-negative patients served as controls. Baseline endoscopy revealed 63% Los Angeles grade 0A and 37% Los Angeles grade BCD oesophagitis with no difference between patient groups. Symptom improvement on esomeprazole was seen in 89%. H. pylori eradication was successful in 82%. H. pylori eradication had no effect on symptomatic relapse (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.74-1.8; p = 0.5). Overall, H. pylori-positive patients had a lower probability of relapse compared to H. pylori-negative controls (hazard ratio 0.6, 95% CI 0.43-0.85; p = 0.004). Relapse hazard was modulated also by oesophagitis grade (BCD vs. 0A, hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.0). Relapse of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease symptoms after a course of high dose acid suppression took longer for H. pylori-positive patients than H. pylori-negative controls; however eradication therapy had no effect on the risk of relapse; ClincialTrials.gov number, NCT00574925.

The effect of Helicobacter pylori infection and eradication in patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease: A parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled multicentre study

PubMed Central

Menne, Dieter; Schütze, Kurt; Vieth, Michael; Goergens, Reiner; Malfertheiner, Peter; Leodolter, Andreas; Fried, Michael; Fox, Mark R

2013-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to resolve controversy regarding the effects of Helicobacter pylori eradication therapy and H. pylori infection in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease. Design A randomized, double-blind, multicentre trial was performed in patients presenting with reflux symptoms. H. pylori-positive patients were randomized to receive either antibiotics or placebo for 7 days. H. pylori-negative patient controls received placebo. All received esomeprazole 20 mg b.d. for 7 days, followed by 40 mg o.d. to complete an 8-week course, and were followed up for 32 weeks by telephone. Results In this study, 198/589 (34%) patients were H. pylori-positive and 113 H. pylori-negative patients served as controls. Baseline endoscopy revealed 63% Los Angeles grade 0A and 37% Los Angeles grade BCD oesophagitis with no difference between patient groups. Symptom improvement on esomeprazole was seen in 89%. H. pylori eradication was successful in 82%. H. pylori eradication had no effect on symptomatic relapse (hazard ratio 1.15, 95% CI 0.74–1.8; p = 0.5). Overall, H. pylori-positive patients had a lower probability of relapse compared to H. pylori-negative controls (hazard ratio 0.6, 95% CI 0.43–0.85; p = 0.004). Relapse hazard was modulated also by oesophagitis grade (BCD vs. 0A, hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.5–3.0). Conclusion Relapse of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease symptoms after a course of high dose acid suppression took longer for H. pylori-positive patients than H. pylori-negative controls; however eradication therapy had no effect on the risk of relapse; ClincialTrials.gov number, NCT00574925. PMID:24917966

Employment Status of Depressed Individuals in an 11-Year Follow-up: Results From the Finnish Health 2011 Survey.

PubMed

Markkula, Niina; Kivekäs, Teija; Suvisaari, Jaana; Virtanen, Marianna; Ahola, Kirsi

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to describe the employment and mental health status of persons with depressive disorders after an 11-year follow-up, and identify individual and work-related factors that predict adverse outcomes. Two nationally representative health surveys, Health 2000 and its follow-up, Health 2011 were used, and persons with depressive disorders at baseline (n = 275) were re-interviewed after 11 years. Information on employment status was available for all 263 participants in 2011. About 15.7% had been granted disability pension by 2011, while 55.5% were employed and 18.2% on old-age pension. High job control was the only statistically significant predictor of lower probability of disability pension (adjusted odds ratio 0.42, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.23 to 0.77). Being unmarried (adjusted odds ratio 2.99, 95% CI 1.19 to 7.52) was associated with persistent depressive disorder. Job control emerged as an important predictor of long-term employment outcomes among depressed individuals.

Using known populations of pronghorn to evaluate sampling plans and estimators

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kraft, K.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Samuelson, J.M.; Allen, S.H.

1995-01-01

Although sampling plans and estimators of abundance have good theoretical properties, their performance in real situations is rarely assessed because true population sizes are unknown. We evaluated widely used sampling plans and estimators of population size on 3 known clustered distributions of pronghorn (Antilocapra americana). Our criteria were accuracy of the estimate, coverage of 95% confidence intervals, and cost. Sampling plans were combinations of sampling intensities (16, 33, and 50%), sample selection (simple random sampling without replacement, systematic sampling, and probability proportional to size sampling with replacement), and stratification. We paired sampling plans with suitable estimators (simple, ratio, and probability proportional to size). We used area of the sampling unit as the auxiliary variable for the ratio and probability proportional to size estimators. All estimators were nearly unbiased, but precision was generally low (overall mean coefficient of variation [CV] = 29). Coverage of 95% confidence intervals was only 89% because of the highly skewed distribution of the pronghorn counts and small sample sizes, especially with stratification. Stratification combined with accurate estimates of optimal stratum sample sizes increased precision, reducing the mean CV from 33 without stratification to 25 with stratification; costs increased 23%. Precise results (mean CV = 13) but poor confidence interval coverage (83%) were obtained with simple and ratio estimators when the allocation scheme included all sampling units in the stratum containing most pronghorn. Although areas of the sampling units varied, ratio estimators and probability proportional to size sampling did not increase precision, possibly because of the clumped distribution of pronghorn. Managers should be cautious in using sampling plans and estimators to estimate abundance of aggregated populations.

Inertial navigation without accelerometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boehm, M.

The Kennedy-Thorndike (1932) experiment points to the feasibility of fiber-optic inertial velocimeters, to which state-of-the-art technology could furnish substantial sensitivity and accuracy improvements. Velocimeters of this type would obviate the use of both gyros and accelerometers, and allow inertial navigation to be conducted together with vehicle attitude control, through the derivation of rotation rates from the ratios of the three possible velocimeter pairs. An inertial navigator and reference system based on this approach would probably have both fewer components and simpler algorithms, due to the obviation of the first level of integration in classic inertial navigators.

Variation of fan tone steadiness for several inflow conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balombin, J. R.

1978-01-01

An amplitude probability density function analysis technique for quantifying the degree of fan noise tone steadiness has been applied to data from a fan tested under a variety of inflow conditions. The test conditions included typical static operation, inflow control by a honeycomb/screen device and forward velocity in a wind tunnel simulating flight. The ratio of mean square sinusoidal-to-random signal content in the fundamental and second harmonic tones was found to vary by more than an order-of-magnitude. Some implications of these results concerning the nature of fan noise generation mechanisms are discussed.

Developing stochastic epidemiological models to quantify the dynamics of infectious diseases in domestic livestock.

PubMed

MacKenzie, K; Bishop, S C

2001-08-01

A stochastic model describing disease transmission dynamics for a microparasitic infection in a structured domestic animal population is developed and applied to hypothetical epidemics on a pig farm. Rational decision making regarding appropriate control strategies for infectious diseases in domestic livestock requires an understanding of the disease dynamics and risk profiles for different groups of animals. This is best achieved by means of stochastic epidemic models. Methodologies are presented for 1) estimating the probability of an epidemic, given the presence of an infected animal, whether this epidemic is major (requires intervention) or minor (dies out without intervention), and how the location of the infected animal on the farm influences the epidemic probabilities; 2) estimating the basic reproductive ratio, R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases on the introduction of a single infected animal) and the variability of the estimate of this parameter; and 3) estimating the total proportion of animals infected during an epidemic and the total proportion infected at any point in time. The model can be used for assessing impact of altering farm structure on disease dynamics, as well as disease control strategies, including altering farm structure, vaccination, culling, and genetic selection.

Multi-target Detection, Tracking, and Data Association on Road Networks Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkley, Brett E.

A cooperative detection and tracking algorithm for multiple targets constrained to a road network is presented for fixed-wing Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) with a finite field of view. Road networks of interest are formed into graphs with nodes that indicate the target likelihood ratio (before detection) and position probability (after detection). A Bayesian likelihood ratio tracker recursively assimilates target observations until the cumulative observations at a particular location pass a detection criterion. At this point, a target is considered detected and a position probability is generated for the target on the graph. Data association is subsequently used to route future measurements to update the likelihood ratio tracker (for undetected target) or to update a position probability (a previously detected target). Three strategies for motion planning of UAVs are proposed to balance searching for new targets with tracking known targets for a variety of scenarios. Performance was tested in Monte Carlo simulations for a variety of mission parameters, including tracking on road networks with varying complexity and using UAVs at various altitudes.

Simulation of gross and net erosion of high-Z materials in the DIII-D divertor

DOE PAGES

Wampler, William R.; Ding, R.; Stangeby, P. C.; ...

2015-12-17

The three-dimensional Monte Carlo code ERO has been used to simulate dedicated DIII-D experiments in which Mo and W samples with different sizes were exposed to controlled and well-diagnosed divertor plasma conditions to measure the gross and net erosion rates. Experimentally, the net erosion rate is significantly reduced due to the high local redeposition probability of eroded high-Z materials, which according to the modelling is mainly controlled by the electric field and plasma density within the Chodura sheath. Similar redeposition ratios were obtained from ERO modelling with three different sheath models for small angles between the magnetic field and themore » material surface, mainly because of their similar mean ionization lengths. The modelled redeposition ratios are close to the measured value. Decreasing the potential drop across the sheath can suppress both gross and net erosion because sputtering yield is decreased due to lower incident energy while the redeposition ratio is not reduced owing to the higher electron density in the Chodura sheath. Taking into account material mixing in the ERO surface model, the net erosion rate of high-Z materials is shown to be strongly dependent on the carbon impurity concentration in the background plasma; higher carbon concentration can suppress net erosion. As a result, the principal experimental results such as net erosion rate and profile and redeposition ratio are well reproduced by the ERO simulations.« less

Elaboration of a clinical and paraclinical score to estimate the probability of herpes simplex virus encephalitis in patients with febrile, acute neurologic impairment.

PubMed

Gennai, S; Rallo, A; Keil, D; Seigneurin, A; Germi, R; Epaulard, O

2016-06-01

Herpes simplex virus (HSV) encephalitis is associated with a high risk of mortality and sequelae, and early diagnosis and treatment in the emergency department are necessary. However, most patients present with non-specific febrile, acute neurologic impairment; this may lead clinicians to overlook the diagnosis of HSV encephalitis. We aimed to identify which data collected in the first hours in a medical setting were associated with the diagnosis of HSV encephalitis. We conducted a multicenter retrospective case-control study in four French public hospitals from 2007 to 2013. The cases were the adult patients who received a confirmed diagnosis of HSV encephalitis. The controls were all the patients who attended the emergency department of Grenoble hospital with a febrile acute neurologic impairment, without HSV detection by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), in 2012 and 2013. A multivariable logistic model was elaborated to estimate factors significantly associated with HSV encephalitis. Finally, an HSV probability score was derived from the logistic model. We identified 36 cases and 103 controls. Factors independently associated with HSV encephalitis were the absence of past neurological history (odds ratio [OR] 6.25 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 2.22-16.7]), the occurrence of seizure (OR 8.09 [95 % CI: 2.73-23.94]), a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg (OR 5.11 [95 % CI: 1.77-14.77]), and a C-reactive protein <10 mg/L (OR 9.27 [95 % CI: 2.98-28.88]). An HSV probability score was calculated summing the value attributed to each independent factor. HSV encephalitis diagnosis may benefit from the use of this score based upon some easily accessible data. However, diagnostic evocation and probabilistic treatment must remain the rule.

A minimalist probabilistic description of root zone soil water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.

2001-01-01

The probabilistic response of depth‐integrated soil water to given climatic forcing can be described readily using an existing supply‐demand‐storage model. An apparently complex interaction of numerous soil, climate, and plant controls can be reduced to a relatively simple expression for the equilibrium probability density function of soil water as a function of only two dimensionless parameters. These are the index of dryness (ratio of mean potential evaporation to mean precipitation) and a dimensionless storage capacity (active root zone soil water capacity divided by mean storm depth). The first parameter is mainly controlled by climate, with surface albedo playing a subsidiary role in determining net radiation. The second is a composite of soil (through moisture retention characteristics), vegetation (through rooting characteristics), and climate (mean storm depth). This minimalist analysis captures many essential features of a more general probabilistic analysis, but with a considerable reduction in complexity and consequent elucidation of the critical controls on soil water variability. In particular, it is shown that (1) the dependence of mean soil water on the index of dryness approaches a step function in the limit of large soil water capacity; (2) soil water variance is usually maximized when the index of dryness equals 1, and the width of the peak varies inversely with dimensionless storage capacity; (3) soil water has a uniform probability density function when the index of dryness is 1 and the dimensionless storage capacity is large; and (4) the soil water probability density function is bimodal if and only if the index of dryness is <1, but this bimodality is pronounced only for artificially small values of the dimensionless storage capacity.

Rate equation model of laser induced bias in uranium isotope ratios measured by resonance ionization mass spectrometry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Isselhardt, B. H.; Prussin, S. G.; Savina, M. R.

2016-01-01

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. The use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of the U-235/U-238 ratio to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. In application, isotope standards are used to identify and correct bias in measured isotope ratios, but understanding laser-induced bias from first-principles can improve the precision and accuracy of experimental measurements. A rate equationmore » model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variations in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. The model uses atomic data and empirical descriptions of laser performance to estimate the laser-induced bias expected in experimental measurements of the U-235/U-238 ratio. Empirical corrections are also included to account for ionization processes that are difficult to calculate from first principles with the available atomic data. Development of this model has highlighted several important considerations for properly interpreting experimental results.« less

Rate equation model of laser induced bias in uranium isotope ratios measured by resonance ionization mass spectrometry

DOE PAGES

Isselhardt, B. H.; Prussin, S. G.; Savina, M. R.; ...

2015-12-07

Resonance Ionization Mass Spectrometry (RIMS) has been developed as a method to measure uranium isotope abundances. In this approach, RIMS is used as an element-selective ionization process between uranium atoms and potential isobars without the aid of chemical purification and separation. The use of broad bandwidth lasers with automated feedback control of wavelength was applied to the measurement of the 235U/238U ratio to decrease laser-induced isotopic fractionation. In application, isotope standards are used to identify and correct bias in measured isotope ratios, but understanding laser-induced bias from first-principles can improve the precision and accuracy of experimental measurements. A rate equationmore » model for predicting the relative ionization probability has been developed to study the effect of variations in laser parameters on the measured isotope ratio. The model uses atomic data and empirical descriptions of laser performance to estimate the laser-induced bias expected in experimental measurements of the 235U/ 238U ratio. Empirical corrections are also included to account for ionization processes that are difficult to calculate from first principles with the available atomic data. As a result, development of this model has highlighted several important considerations for properly interpreting experimental results.« less

The impact of Hurricane Sandy on the mental health of New York area residents.

PubMed

Schwartz, Rebecca M; Sison, Cristina; Kerath, Samantha M; Murphy, Lisa; Breil, Trista; Sikavi, Daniel; Taioli, Emanuela

2015-01-01

To evaluate the long-term psychological impact of Hurricane Sandy on New York residents. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Community-based study. From October 2013 to February 2015, 669 adults in Long Island, Queens, and Staten Island completed a survey on their behavioral and psychological health, demographics, and hurricane impact (ie, exposure). Depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Using multivariable logistic regression models, the relationships between Hurricane Sandy exposure and depression, anxiety, and PTSD were examined. Participants experienced an average of 3.9 exposures to Hurricane Sandy, most of which were related to property damage/loss. Probable depression was reported in 33.4 percent of participants, probable anxiety in 46 percent, and probable PTSD in 21.1 percent. Increased exposure to Hurricane Sandy was significantly associated with a greater likelihood of depression (odds ratio [OR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.04-1.14), anxiety (OR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03-1.13), and probable PTSD (OR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.23-1.40), even after controlling for demographic factors known to increase susceptibility to mental health issues. Individuals affected by Hurricane Sandy reported high levels of mental health issues and were at an increased risk of depression, anxiety, and PTSD in the years following the storm. Recovery and prevention efforts should focus on mental health issues in affected populations.

Probabilistic Simulation of Progressive Fracture in Bolted-Joint Composite Laminates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minnetyan, L.; Singhal, S. N.; Chamis, C. C.

1996-01-01

This report describes computational methods to probabilistically simulate fracture in bolted composite structures. An innovative approach that is independent of stress intensity factors and fracture toughness was used to simulate progressive fracture. The effect of design variable uncertainties on structural damage was also quantified. A fast probability integrator assessed the scatter in the composite structure response before and after damage. Then the sensitivity of the response to design variables was computed. General-purpose methods, which are applicable to bolted joints in all types of structures and in all fracture processes-from damage initiation to unstable propagation and global structure collapse-were used. These methods were demonstrated for a bolted joint of a polymer matrix composite panel under edge loads. The effects of the fabrication process were included in the simulation of damage in the bolted panel. Results showed that the most effective way to reduce end displacement at fracture is to control both the load and the ply thickness. The cumulative probability for longitudinal stress in all plies was most sensitive to the load; in the 0 deg. plies it was very sensitive to ply thickness. The cumulative probability for transverse stress was most sensitive to the matrix coefficient of thermal expansion. In addition, fiber volume ratio and fiber transverse modulus both contributed significantly to the cumulative probability for the transverse stresses in all the plies.

A historical analysis of Plinian unrest and the key promoters of explosive activity.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winson, A. E. G.; Newhall, C. G.; Costa, F.

2015-12-01

Plinian eruptions are the largest historically recorded volcanic phenomena, and have the potential to be widely destructive. Yet when a volcano becomes newly restless we are unable to anticipate whether or not a large eruption is imminent. We present the findings from a multi-parametric study of 42 large explosive eruptions (29 Plinian and 13 Sub-plinian) that form the basis for a new Bayesian Belief network that addresses this question. We combine the eruptive history of the volcanoes that have produced these large eruptions with petrological studies, and reported unrest phenomena to assess the probability of an eruption being plinian. We find that the 'plinian probability' is increased most strongly by the presence of an exsolved volatile phase in the reservoir prior to an eruption. In our survey 60% of the plinian eruptions, had an excess SO2 gas phase of more than double than it is calculated by petrologic studies alone. Probability is also increased by three related and more easily observable parameters: a high plinian Ratio (that is the ratio of VEI≥4 eruptions in a volcanoes history to the number of all VEI≥2 eruptions in the history), a repose time of more than 1000 years, and a Repose Ratio (the ratio of the average return of VEI≥4 eruptions in the volcanic record to the repose time since the last VEI≥4) of greater than 0.7. We looked for unrest signals that potentially are indicative of future plinian activity and report a few observations from case studies but cannot say if these will generally appear. Finally we present a retrospective analysis of the probabilities of eruptions in our study becoming plinian, using our Bayesian belief network. We find that these probabilities are up to about 4 times greater than those calculate from an a priori assessment of the global eruptive catalogue.

Amplitude-independent flaw length determination using differential eddy current

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shell, E.

2013-01-01

Military engine component manufacturers typically specify the eddy current (EC) inspection requirements as a crack length or depth with the assumption that the cracks in both the test specimens and inspected component are of a similar fixed aspect ratio. However, differential EC response amplitude is dependent on the area of the crack face, not the length or depth. Additionally, due to complex stresses, in-service cracks do not always grow in the assumed manner. It would be advantageous to use more of the information contained in the EC data to better determine the full profile of cracks independent of the fixed aspect ratio amplitude response curve. A specimen with narrow width notches is used to mimic cracks of varying aspect ratios in a controllable manner. The specimen notches have aspect ratios that vary from 1:1 to 10:1. Analysis routines have been developed using the shape of the EC response signals that can determine the length of a surface flaw of common orientations without use of the amplitude of the signal or any supporting traditional probability of detection basis. Combined with the relationship between signal amplitude and area, the depth of the flaw can also be calculated.

Prospect evaluation as a function of numeracy and probability denominator.

PubMed

Millroth, Philip; Juslin, Peter

2015-05-01

This study examines how numeracy and probability denominator (a direct-ratio probability, a relative frequency with denominator 100, a relative frequency with denominator 10,000) affect the evaluation of prospects in an expected-value based pricing task. We expected that numeracy would affect the results due to differences in the linearity of number perception and the susceptibility to denominator neglect with different probability formats. An analysis with functional measurement verified that participants integrated value and probability into an expected value. However, a significant interaction between numeracy and probability format and subsequent analyses of the parameters of cumulative prospect theory showed that the manipulation of probability denominator changed participants' psychophysical response to probability and value. Standard methods in decision research may thus confound people's genuine risk attitude with their numerical capacities and the probability format used. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Laser Ignition Microthruster Experiments on KKS-1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Masakatsu; Koizumi, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Masashi; Arakawa, Yoshihiro

A laser ignition microthruster has been developed for microsatellites. Thruster performances such as impulse and ignition probability were measured, using boron potassium nitrate (B/KNO3) solid propellant ignited by a 1 W CW laser diode. The measured impulses were 60 mNs ± 15 mNs with almost 100 % ignition probability. The effect of the mixture ratios of B/KNO3 on thruster performance was also investigated, and it was shown that mixture ratios between B/KNO3/binder = 28/70/2 and 38/60/2 exhibited both high ignition probability and high impulse. Laser ignition thrusters designed and fabricated based on these data became the first non-conventional microthrusters on the Kouku Kousen Satellite No. 1 (KKS-1) microsatellite that was launched by a H2A rocket as one of six piggyback satellites in January 2009.

The Interpretation of Mg/Ca in Ostracode Valves: Biokinetic vs. Thermodynamic Controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettman, D. L.; Palacios-Fest, M. R.; Cohen, A. S.

2004-12-01

The geochemistry of the calcite valves of ostracodes (a group of micro-crustacean) is often used to reconstruct the history of aqueous environments in both marine and fresh-water settings. These benthic animals can be very abundant in lakes and ponds and their low-Mg calcite valves are easily recovered from sediment cores. Many studies have used minor-element ratios (Mg/Ca and Sr/Ca) as indicators of temperature and/or salinity change through time and numerous calibration studies have been undertaken. There is considerable disagreement on the interpretation of both historical data and calibration studies because of differing views on what controls elemental ratios in ostracode valves. Here we focus on Mg/Ca ratios and critique the dominant assumption that Mg/Ca ratios in ostracode calcite are interpretable as a temperature-dependant distribution (or partition) coefficient. The use of a distribution coefficient, usually defined as a ratio of shell-to-water Mg/Ca ratios, assumes that the ratio in the water plays a significant role in the resultant ratio in the shell. Ostracode biomineralization is most commonly viewed as equivalent to inorganic precipitation of low-Mg calcite from solution, a system in which distribution coefficients are probably valid models. However, a re-examination of published studies shows that in many cases Mg/Ca(water) has no statistically demonstrable affect on the Mg/Ca ratio of ostracode valve calcite. The valve Mg/Ca ratio is most often a function of ambient temperature. In a number of studies the importance of the water's Mg/Ca ratio cannot be determined due to auto-correlation with other environmental factors. This implies that there is considerable biological control on the minor element chemistry of the ostracode valve. This is supported by a number of observations: valve calcification is rapid and initiated by the animal; Mg/Ca ratios within the valve vary greatly on a microscopic scale; the earliest carbonate formed during calcification approaches magnesite; other crustaceans accumulate Mg prior to molting. Finally, we note that ostracode valves typically fall into the 0.003 to 0.04 range of molar Mg/Ca ratios, and that ratios greater than 0.05 are extremely rare in the valves of fully-calcified adult ostracodes of any species. Yet these animals thrive in waters where the range of Mg/Ca ratio covers more than 3 orders of magnitude. A distribution coefficient model incorrectly predicts a similar 3 order of magnitude range in shell chemistry. Alternatively a bio-kinetic model for valve chemistry yields very promising results for the use of Mg/Ca ratios in ostracode valves as a paleothermometer.

Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

PubMed

Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

2011-05-01

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kreuzer, Helen W.; Horita, Juske; Moran, James J.

Sodium and potassium cyanide are highly toxic, produced in large amounts by the chemical industry, and linked to numerous high-profile crimes. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified cyanide as one of the most probable agents to be used in a future chemical terrorism event. We investigated whether stable C and N isotopic content of sodium and potassium cyanide could serve as a forensic signature for sample matching, using a collection of 65 cyanide samples. A few of these samples displayed non-homogeneous isotopic content associated with degradation to a carbonate salt and loss of hydrogen cyanide. Mostmore » samples had highly reproducible isotope content. Of these, >95% could be properly matched based on C and N isotope ratios, with a false match rate <3%. These results suggest that stable C and N isotope ratios are a useful forensic signature for matching cyanide samples.« less

Dynamical jumping real-time fault-tolerant routing protocol for wireless sensor networks.

PubMed

Wu, Guowei; Lin, Chi; Xia, Feng; Yao, Lin; Zhang, He; Liu, Bing

2010-01-01

In time-critical wireless sensor network (WSN) applications, a high degree of reliability is commonly required. A dynamical jumping real-time fault-tolerant routing protocol (DMRF) is proposed in this paper. Each node utilizes the remaining transmission time of the data packets and the state of the forwarding candidate node set to dynamically choose the next hop. Once node failure, network congestion or void region occurs, the transmission mode will switch to jumping transmission mode, which can reduce the transmission time delay, guaranteeing the data packets to be sent to the destination node within the specified time limit. By using feedback mechanism, each node dynamically adjusts the jumping probabilities to increase the ratio of successful transmission. Simulation results show that DMRF can not only efficiently reduce the effects of failure nodes, congestion and void region, but also yield higher ratio of successful transmission, smaller transmission delay and reduced number of control packets.

Investigating the link between gun possession and gun assault.

PubMed

Branas, Charles C; Richmond, Therese S; Culhane, Dennis P; Ten Have, Thomas R; Wiebe, Douglas J

2009-11-01

We investigated the possible relationship between being shot in an assault and possession of a gun at the time. We enrolled 677 case participants that had been shot in an assault and 684 population-based control participants within Philadelphia, PA, from 2003 to 2006. We adjusted odds ratios for confounding variables. After adjustment, individuals in possession of a gun were 4.46 (P < .05) times more likely to be shot in an assault than those not in possession. Among gun assaults where the victim had at least some chance to resist, this adjusted odds ratio increased to 5.45 (P < .05). On average, guns did not protect those who possessed them from being shot in an assault. Although successful defensive gun uses occur each year, the probability of success may be low for civilian gun users in urban areas. Such users should reconsider their possession of guns or, at least, understand that regular possession necessitates careful safety countermeasures.

Summertime measurements of selected nonmethane hydrocarbons in the Arctic and Subarctic during the 1988 Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blake, Donald R.; Hurst, Dale F.; Smith, Tyrrel W., Jr.; Whipple, Wayne J.; Chen, Tai-Yih; Blake, Nicola J.; Rowland, F. S.

1992-01-01

The concentration distributions of several nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHIC) in the Arctic and Subarctic regions of Alaska are discussed using data obtained during July and August of 1988 as part of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A). Plume enhancement of some or all of the measured NMHIC were observed on more than half of the 33 missions flown during the project. The usual summer vertical profile of reactive hydrocarbons at these high latitudes has elevated concentrations at high altitudes, with mixing ratio variations largely controlled by hydroxyl radical reactions. Wildfires were established as a significant source of various NMHIC. Biomass burning emission ratios relative to ethane were established for ethyne (0.38 +/- 0.04) and propane (0.08 +/- 0.03). Activities associated with oil drilling are a probable source of enhanced levels of alkanes observed as much as 300 km northeast of Prudhoe Bay.

Significance of stress transfer in time-dependent earthquake probability calculations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.

2005-01-01

A sudden change in stress is seen to modify earthquake rates, but should it also revise earthquake probability? Data used to derive input parameters permits an array of forecasts; so how large a static stress change is require to cause a statistically significant earthquake probability change? To answer that question, effects of parameter and philosophical choices are examined through all phases of sample calculations, Drawing at random from distributions of recurrence-aperiodicity pairs identifies many that recreate long paleoseismic and historic earthquake catalogs. Probability density funtions built from the recurrence-aperiodicity pairs give the range of possible earthquake forecasts under a point process renewal model. Consequences of choices made in stress transfer calculations, such as different slip models, fault rake, dip, and friction are, tracked. For interactions among large faults, calculated peak stress changes may be localized, with most of the receiving fault area changed less than the mean. Thus, to avoid overstating probability change on segments, stress change values should be drawn from a distribution reflecting the spatial pattern rather than using the segment mean. Disparity resulting from interaction probability methodology is also examined. For a fault with a well-understood earthquake history, a minimum stress change to stressing rate ratio of 10:1 to 20:1 is required to significantly skew probabilities with >80-85% confidence. That ratio must be closer to 50:1 to exceed 90-95% confidence levels. Thus revision to earthquake probability is achievable when a perturbing event is very close to the fault in question or the tectonic stressing rate is low.

Sensitivity, predictive values, pretest-posttest probabilities, and likelihood ratios of presurgery clinical diagnosis of nonmelanoma skin cancers.

PubMed

Ermertcan, Aylin Türel; Oztürk, Ferdi; Gençoğlan, Gülsüm; Eskiizmir, Görkem; Temiz, Peyker; Horasan, Gönül Dinç

2011-03-01

The precision of clinical diagnosis of skin tumors is not commonly measured and, therefore, very little is known about the diagnostic ability of clinicians. This study aimed to compare clinical and histopathologic diagnoses of nonmelanoma skin cancers with regard to sensitivity, predictive values, pretest-posttest probabilities, and likelihood ratios. Two hundred nineteen patients with 241 nonmelanoma skin cancers were enrolled in this study. Of these patients, 49.4% were female and 50.6% were male. The mean age ± standard deviation (SD) was 63.66 ± 16.44 years for the female patients and 64.77 ± 14.88 years for the male patients. The mean duration of the lesions was 20.90 ± 32.95 months. One hundred forty-eight (61.5%) of the lesions were diagnosed as basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and 93 (38.5%) were diagnosed as squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) histopathologically. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and posttest probability were calculated as 75.96%, 87.77%, and 87.78% for BCC and 70.37%, 37.25%, and 37.20% for SCC, respectively. The correlation between clinical and histopathologic diagnoses was found to be higher in BCC. Knowledge of sensitivity, predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probabilities may have implications for the management of skin cancers. To prevent unnecessary surgeries and achieve high diagnostic accuracies, multidisciplinary approaches are recommended.

Terminal seizure frequency and its relation to SUDEP.

PubMed

Chen, Deng; Si, Yang; He, Jun; Deng, Ying; Chen, Tao; He, Yu-Jin; Liu, Ling; Zhou, Dong

2017-05-01

Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is a major cause of death in patients with epilepsy. Several risk factors have been implicated, including early age of onset, tonic-clonic seizures and antiepileptic drugs. However, whether patients who die from SUDEP have a greater frequency of seizures in the few months before death is unclear. We investigated the terminal seizure frequency and its relation to SUDEP among a large group of patients with tonic-clonic seizures in rural West China. We used the database from the Convulsive Epilepsy Control and Management Program in West China, which routinely provides phenobarbital (PB) as a treatment for convulsive epilepsy. Patients with probable SUDEP were included according to pre-set criteria. A verbal autopsy was undertaken for each case. By matching each patient's age, sex, date of joining the program, time in follow-up, and baseline seizure frequency, we set up a 1:5 ratio control group. SPSS 21.0 statistics were applied to compare the differences in seizure frequency 3months prior to SUDEP between patients with probable SUDEP and controls. Furthermore, the dynamic changes of terminal seizure frequency 6-9months, 3-6months, and 3months prior to SUDEP was also analyzed. A total of 41 patients who died from probable SUDEP were identified out of 7844 patients during 10years of follow-up. The SUDEP group had a significantly higher tonic-clonic seizure frequency 3months before their deaths than the control group (p=0.023). At the same time, their seizure-free rate was lower than the control group (p=0.025). Patients with probable SUDEP who were followed up over 12months were further studied as a subgroup. They had more tonic-clonic seizures 3months prior to death compared to the control group (p=0.010). They also had an increase in seizure frequency in their terminal phase (3months prior) compared to an earlier stage (3-6months prior) (p=0.029). Furthermore, the terminal PB dose in the SUDEP group was higher than the control group (p=0.002). Patients who died from SUDEP had more frequent tonic-clonic seizures 3months before their deaths. Higher seizure frequency increases the exposure to peri-ictal pathophysiological events, which possibly relate to SUDEP. This phenomenon may be due to the drug resistance potential of these patients or the high dose of PB. Further research is required to ascertain the underlying mechanisms of SUDEP. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oral nutritional support in malnourished elderly decreases functional limitations with no extra costs.

PubMed

Neelemaat, Floor; Bosmans, Judith E; Thijs, Abel; Seidell, Jaap C; van Bokhorst-de van der Schueren, Marian A E

2012-04-01

Older people are vulnerable to malnutrition which leads to increased health care costs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of nutritional supplementation from a societal perspective. This randomized controlled trial included hospital admitted malnourished elderly (≥ 60 y) patients. Patients in the intervention group received nutritional supplementation (energy and protein enriched diet, oral nutritional support, calcium-vitamin D supplement, telephone counselling by a dietician) until three months after discharge from hospital. Patients in the control group received usual care (control). Primary outcomes were Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs), physical activities and functional limitations. Measurements were performed at hospital admission and three months after discharge. Data were analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle and multiple imputation was used to impute missing data. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated and bootstrapping was applied to evaluate cost-effectiveness. Cost-effectiveness was expressed by cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. 210 patients were included, 105 in each group. After three months, no statistically significant differences in quality of life and physical activities were observed between groups. Functional limitations decreased significantly more in the intervention group (mean difference -0.72, 95% CI-1.15; -0.28). There were no differences in costs between groups. Cost-effectiveness for QALYs and physical activities could not be demonstrated. For functional limitations we found a 0.95 probability that the intervention is cost-effective in comparison with usual care for ceiling ratios > €6500. A multi-component nutritional intervention to malnourished elderly patients for three months after hospital discharge leads to significant improvement in functional limitations and is neutral in costs. A follow-up of three months is probably too short to detect changes in QALYs or physical activities. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Comparison between treatment effects in a randomised controlled trial and an observational study using propensity scores in primary care.

PubMed

Stuart, Beth L; Grebel, Louise En; Butler, Christopher C; Hood, Kerenza; Verheij, Theo J M; Little, Paul

2017-09-01

Although randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are considered 'gold standard' evidence, they are not always feasible or appropriate, and may represent a select population. Observational studies provide a useful alternative to enhance applicability, but results can be biased due to confounding. To explore the utility of propensity scores for causal inference in an observational study. Comparison of the effect of amoxicillin on key outcomes in an international RCT and observational study of lower respiratory tract infections. Propensity scores were calculated and applied as probability weights in the analyses. The adjusted results were compared with the effects reported in the RCT. Groups were well balanced in the RCT but significantly imbalanced in the observational study, with evidence of confounding by indication: patients receiving antibiotics tended to be older and more unwell at baseline consultation. In the trial duration of symptoms (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.18) and symptom severity (-0.07, 95% CI = -0.15 to 0.007) did not differ between groups. Weighting by propensity score in the observational study resulted in very similar estimates of effect: duration of symptoms (hazard ratio 1.06, 95% CI = 0.80 to 1.40) and difference for symptom severity (-0.07, 95% CI = -0.34 to 0.20). The observational study, after conditioning on propensity score, echoed the trial results. Provided that detailed information is available on potential sources of confounding, effects of interventions can probably be assessed reasonably well in observational datasets, allowing them to be more directly compared with the results of RCTs. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

Control of photodissociation and photoionization of the NaI molecule by dynamic Stark effect.

PubMed

Han, Yong-Chang; Yuan, Kai-Jun; Hu, Wen-Hui; Cong, Shu-Lin

2009-01-28

The diabatic photodissociation and photoionization processes of the NaI molecule are studied theoretically using the quantum wave packet method. A pump laser pulse is used to prepare a dissociation wave packet that propagates through both the ionic channel (NaI-->Na(+)+I(-)) and the covalent channel (NaI-->Na+I). A Stark pulse is used to control the diabatic dissociation dynamics and a probe pulse is employed to ionize the products from the two channels. Based on the first order nonresonant nonperturbative dynamic Stark effect, the dissociation probabilities and the branching ratio of the products from the two channels can be controlled. Moreover the final photoelectron kinetic energy distribution can also be affected by the Stark pulse. The influences of the delay time, intensity, frequency, and carrier-envelope phase of the Stark pulse on the dissociation and ionization dynamics of the NaI molecule are discussed in detail.

Accuracy of diagnostic tests to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy.

PubMed

Mignini, Luciano; Carroli, Guillermo; Abalos, Edgardo; Widmer, Mariana; Amigot, Susana; Nardin, Juan Manuel; Giordano, Daniel; Merialdi, Mario; Arciero, Graciela; Del Carmen Hourquescos, Maria

2009-02-01

A dipslide is a plastic paddle coated with agar that is attached to a plastic cap that screws onto a sterile plastic vial. Our objective was to estimate the diagnostic accuracy of the dipslide culture technique to detect asymptomatic bacteriuria during pregnancy and to evaluate the accuracy of nitrate and leucocyte esterase dipslides for screening. This was an ancillary study within a trial comparing single-day with 7-day therapy in treating asymptomatic bacteriuria. Clean-catch midstream samples were collected from pregnant women seeking routine care. Positive and negative likelihood ratios and sensitivity and specificity for the culture-based dipslide to detect and chemical dipsticks (nitrites, leukocyte esterase, or both) to screen were estimated using traditional urine culture as the "gold standard." : A total of 3,048 eligible pregnant women were screened. The prevalence of asymptomatic bacteriuria was 15%, with Escherichia coli the most prevalent organism. The likelihood ratio for detecting asymptomatic bacteriuria with a positive dipslide test was 225 (95% confidence interval [CI] 113-449), increasing the probability of asymptomatic bacteriuria to 98%; the likelihood ratio for a negative dipslide test was 0.02 (95% CI 0.01-0.05), reducing the probability of bacteriuria to less than 1%. The positive likelihood ratio of leukocyte esterase and nitrite dipsticks (when both or either one was positive) was 6.95 (95% CI 5.80-8.33), increasing the probability of bacteriuria to only 54%; the negative likelihood ratio was 0.50 (95% CI 0.45-0.57), reducing the probability to 8%. A pregnant woman with a positive dipslide test is very likely to have a definitive diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria, whereas a negative result effectively rules out the presence of bacteriuria. Dipsticks that measure nitrites and leukocyte esterase have low sensitivity for use in screening for asymptomatic bacteriuria during gestation. ISRCTN, isrctn.org, 1196608 II.

Interpretation of diagnostic data: 5. How to do it with simple maths.

PubMed

1983-11-01

The use of simple maths with the likelihood ratio strategy fits in nicely with our clinical views. By making the most out of the entire range of diagnostic test results (i.e., several levels, each with its own likelihood ratio, rather than a single cut-off point and a single ratio) and by permitting us to keep track of the likelihood that a patient has the target disorder at each point along the diagnostic sequence, this strategy allows us to place patients at an extremely high or an extremely low likelihood of disease. Thus, the numbers of patients with ultimately false-positive results (who suffer the slings of labelling and the arrows of needless therapy) and of those with ultimately false-negative results (who therefore miss their chance for diagnosis and, possibly, efficacious therapy) will be dramatically reduced. The following guidelines will be useful in interpreting signs, symptoms and laboratory tests with the likelihood ratio strategy: Seek out, and demand from the clinical or laboratory experts who ought to know, the likelihood ratios for key symptoms and signs, and several levels (rather than just the positive and negative results) of diagnostic test results. Identify, when feasible, the logical sequence of diagnostic tests. Estimate the pretest probability of disease for the patient, and, using either the nomogram or the conversion formulas, apply the likelihood ratio that corresponds to the first diagnostic test result. While remembering that the resulting post-test probability or odds from the first test becomes the pretest probability or odds for the next diagnostic test, repeat the process for all the pertinent symptoms, signs and laboratory studies that pertain to the target disorder. However, these combinations may not be independent, and convergent diagnostic tests, if treated as independent, will combine to overestimate the final post-test probability of disease. You are now far more sophisticated in interpreting diagnostic tests than most of your teachers. In the last part of our series we will show you some rather complex strategies that combine diagnosis and therapy, quantify our as yet nonquantified ideas about use, and require the use of at least a hand calculator.

Interpretation of diagnostic data: 5. How to do it with simple maths.

PubMed Central

1983-01-01

The use of simple maths with the likelihood ratio strategy fits in nicely with our clinical views. By making the most out of the entire range of diagnostic test results (i.e., several levels, each with its own likelihood ratio, rather than a single cut-off point and a single ratio) and by permitting us to keep track of the likelihood that a patient has the target disorder at each point along the diagnostic sequence, this strategy allows us to place patients at an extremely high or an extremely low likelihood of disease. Thus, the numbers of patients with ultimately false-positive results (who suffer the slings of labelling and the arrows of needless therapy) and of those with ultimately false-negative results (who therefore miss their chance for diagnosis and, possibly, efficacious therapy) will be dramatically reduced. The following guidelines will be useful in interpreting signs, symptoms and laboratory tests with the likelihood ratio strategy: Seek out, and demand from the clinical or laboratory experts who ought to know, the likelihood ratios for key symptoms and signs, and several levels (rather than just the positive and negative results) of diagnostic test results. Identify, when feasible, the logical sequence of diagnostic tests. Estimate the pretest probability of disease for the patient, and, using either the nomogram or the conversion formulas, apply the likelihood ratio that corresponds to the first diagnostic test result. While remembering that the resulting post-test probability or odds from the first test becomes the pretest probability or odds for the next diagnostic test, repeat the process for all the pertinent symptoms, signs and laboratory studies that pertain to the target disorder. However, these combinations may not be independent, and convergent diagnostic tests, if treated as independent, will combine to overestimate the final post-test probability of disease. You are now far more sophisticated in interpreting diagnostic tests than most of your teachers. In the last part of our series we will show you some rather complex strategies that combine diagnosis and therapy, quantify our as yet nonquantified ideas about use, and require the use of at least a hand calculator. PMID:6671182

Deviation from Power Law Behavior in Landslide Phenomenon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, L.; Lan, H.; Wu, Y.

2013-12-01

Power law distribution of magnitude is widely observed in many natural hazards (e.g., earthquake, floods, tornadoes, and forest fires). Landslide is unique as the size distribution of landslide is characterized by a power law decrease with a rollover in the small size end. Yet, the emergence of the rollover, i.e., the deviation from power law behavior for small size landslides, remains a mystery. In this contribution, we grouped the forces applied on landslide bodies into two categories: 1) the forces proportional to the volume of failure mass (gravity and friction), and 2) the forces proportional to the area of failure surface (cohesion). Failure occurs when the forces proportional to volume exceed the forces proportional to surface area. As such, given a certain mechanical configuration, the failure volume to failure surface area ratio must exceed a corresponding threshold to guarantee a failure. Assuming all landslides share a uniform shape, which means the volume to surface area ratio of landslide regularly increase with the landslide volume, a cutoff of landslide volume distribution in the small size end can be defined. However, in realistic landslide phenomena, where heterogeneities of landslide shape and mechanical configuration are existent, a simple cutoff of landslide volume distribution does not exist. The stochasticity of landslide shape introduce a probability distribution of the volume to surface area ratio with regard to landslide volume, with which the probability that the volume to surface ratio exceed the threshold can be estimated regarding values of landslide volume. An experiment based on empirical data showed that this probability can induce the power law distribution of landslide volume roll down in the small size end. We therefore proposed that the constraints on the failure volume to failure surface area ratio together with the heterogeneity of landslide geometry and mechanical configuration attribute for the deviation from power law behavior in landslide phenomenon. Figure shows that a rollover of landslide size distribution in the small size end is produced as the probability for V/S (the failure volume to failure surface ratio of landslide) exceeding the mechanical threshold applied to the power law distribution of landslide volume.

Depressive symptoms and incidence of mild cognitive impairment and probable dementia in elderly women: the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

PubMed

Goveas, Joseph S; Espeland, Mark A; Woods, Nancy F; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Kotchen, Jane M

2011-01-01

To examine whether significant depressive symptoms in postmenopausal women increases the risk of subsequent mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. Prospective cohort study. Thirty nine of the 40 Women's Health Initiative (WHI) clinical centers that participated in a randomized clinical trial of hormone therapy. Six thousand three hundred seventy-six postmenopausal women without cognitive impairment aged 65 to 79 at baseline. Depressive disorders were assessed using an eight-item Burnam algorithm and followed annually for a mean period of 5.4 years. A central adjudication committee classified the presence of MCI and probable dementia based on an extensive neuropsychiatric examination. Eight percent of postmenopausal women in this sample reported depressive symptoms above a 0.06 cut point on the Burnam algorithm. Depressive disorder at baseline was associated with greater risk of incident MCI (hazard ratio (HR)=1.98, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.33-2.94), probable dementia (HR=2.03, 95% CI=1.15-3.60), and MCI or probable dementia (HR=1.92, 95% CI=1.35-2.73) after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle and vascular risk factors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, antidepressant use, and current and past hormone therapy status. Assignment to hormone therapy and baseline cognitive function did not affect these relationships. Women without depression who endorsed a remote history of depression had a higher risk of developing dementia. Clinically significant depressive symptoms in women aged 65 and older are independently associated with greater incidence of MCI and probable dementia. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Control of temperature and aqueous Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio on the (trans-)formation of ikaite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purgstaller, B.; Dietzel, M.; Baldermann, A.; Mavromatis, V.

2017-11-01

The calcium carbonate hexahydrate mineral ikaite (CaCO3 ṡ 6 H2O) has been documented in aquatic environments at near-freezing temperatures. An increase of the prevailing temperature in the depositional environment, results in the transformation of natural ikaite into less soluble calcium carbonate phases occasionally leaving calcite pseudomorphs in the sediments, which are considered as an indicator for primary cold water temperatures. Detailed understanding on the physicochemical parameters controlling ikaite (trans-)formation however, such as temperature and reactive solution chemical composition, are still under debate. In order to study the formation of ikaite, we conducted precipitation experiments under controlled physicochemical conditions (pH = 8.3 ± 0.1; T = 6, 12, and 18 ± 0.1 °C) at defined aqueous molar Mg/Ca ratios. The transformation of ikaite into anhydrous calcium carbonate polymorphs was investigated in solution and at air exposure. The obtained results reveal the formation of ikaite at temperatures up to 12 °C, whereas Mg-rich amorphous calcium carbonate precipitated at 18 °C. In contact with the reactive solution ikaite transformed into aragonite at aqueous molar Mg2+/Ca2+ ratios of ≥14. In contrast, ikaite separated from the Mg-rich solution and exposed to air transformed in all cases into calcite/vaterite. The herein obtained temperature limit of ≤12 for ikaite formation is significantly higher than formerly expected and most probably caused by (i) the high saturation degree of the solution with respect to ikaite and (ii) the slow dehydration of the aqueous Ca2+ ion at low temperatures. This result questions the suitability of calcite pseudomorphs (i.e. glendonites) as a proxy for near-freezing temperatures. Moreover, our findings show that the CaCO3 polymorph formed from ikaite is strongly controlled by the physicochemical conditions, such as aqueous molar Mg2+/Ca2+ ratio of the reactive fluid and H2O availability throughout the transformation process.

Household demography and early childhood mortality in a rice-farming village in Northern Laos.

PubMed

Tomita, Shinsuke; Parker, Daniel M; Jennings, Julia A; Wood, James

2015-01-01

This paper extends Alexandr Chayanov's model of changing household demography (specifically the ratio of food consumers to food producers) and its influence on agricultural behavior so that it includes possible adverse effects of a rising ratio on nutritional status and early childhood mortality within the household. We apply the model to 35 years' worth of longitudinal demographic and economic data collected in the irrigated-rice growing village of Na Savang in northern Laos. When appropriate controls are included for other household variables, unobserved inter-household heterogeneity, and changes in local conditions and national policy over the study period, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in the household's consumer/producer ratio induces something like a nine-fold increase in the risk of death among household members aged less than five years. Monte Carlo simulation studies suggest that this may be an over-estimate but also that the effect is probably real and likely to be an important factor in household demography. At the very least, the results suggest that Chayanov's model still has theoretical relevance and deserves to be revived.

Household Demography and Early Childhood Mortality in a Rice-Farming Village in Northern Laos

PubMed Central

Tomita, Shinsuke; Parker, Daniel M.; Jennings, Julia A.; Wood, James

2015-01-01

This paper extends Alexandr Chayanov’s model of changing household demography (specifically the ratio of food consumers to food producers) and its influence on agricultural behavior so that it includes possible adverse effects of a rising ratio on nutritional status and early childhood mortality within the household. We apply the model to 35 years’ worth of longitudinal demographic and economic data collected in the irrigated-rice growing village of Na Savang in northern Laos. When appropriate controls are included for other household variables, unobserved inter-household heterogeneity, and changes in local conditions and national policy over the study period, the analysis suggests that a unit increase in the household’s consumer/producer ratio induces something like a nine-fold increase in the risk of death among household members aged less than five years. Monte Carlo simulation studies suggest that this may be an over-estimate but also that the effect is probably real and likely to be an important factor in household demography. At the very least, the results suggest that Chayanov’s model still has theoretical relevance and deserves to be revived. PMID:25775467

Negative serum carcinoembryonic antigen has insufficient accuracy for excluding recurrence from patients with Dukes C colorectal cancer: analysis with likelihood ratio and posttest probability in a follow-up study.

PubMed

Hara, Masayasu; Kanemitsu, Yukihide; Hirai, Takashi; Komori, Koji; Kato, Tomoyuki

2008-11-01

This study was designed to determine the efficacy of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) monitoring for screening patients with colorectal cancer by using posttest probability of recurrence. For this study, 348 (preoperative serum CEA level elevated: CEA+, n = 119; or normal: CEA-, n = 229) patients who had undergone potentially curative surgery for colorectal cancer were enrolled. After five-year follow-up with measurements of serum CEA levels and imaging workup, posttest probabilities of recurrence were calculated. Recurrence was observed in 39 percent of CEA+ patients and 30 percent in CEA- patients, and CEA levels were elevated in 33.3 percent of CEA+ patients and 17.5 percent of CEA- patients. With obtained sensitivity (68.4 percent, CEA+; 41 percent, CEA-), specificity (83 percent, CEA+; 91 percent, CEA-) and likelihood ratio (test positive: 4.0, CEA+; 4.4, CEA-; and test negative: 0.38, CEA+; 0.66, CEA-), posttest probability given the presence of CEA elevation in the CEA+ and CEA- was 72.2 and 65.5 percent, respectively, and that given the absence of CEA elevation was 20 and 22.2 percent, respectively. Whereas postoperative CEA elevation indicates recurrence with high probability, a normal postoperative CEA is not useful for excluding the probability of recurrence.

Predicting Rotator Cuff Tears Using Data Mining and Bayesian Likelihood Ratios

PubMed Central

Lu, Hsueh-Yi; Huang, Chen-Yuan; Su, Chwen-Tzeng; Lin, Chen-Chiang

2014-01-01

Objectives Rotator cuff tear is a common cause of shoulder diseases. Correct diagnosis of rotator cuff tears can save patients from further invasive, costly and painful tests. This study used predictive data mining and Bayesian theory to improve the accuracy of diagnosing rotator cuff tears by clinical examination alone. Methods In this retrospective study, 169 patients who had a preliminary diagnosis of rotator cuff tear on the basis of clinical evaluation followed by confirmatory MRI between 2007 and 2011 were identified. MRI was used as a reference standard to classify rotator cuff tears. The predictor variable was the clinical assessment results, which consisted of 16 attributes. This study employed 2 data mining methods (ANN and the decision tree) and a statistical method (logistic regression) to classify the rotator cuff diagnosis into “tear” and “no tear” groups. Likelihood ratio and Bayesian theory were applied to estimate the probability of rotator cuff tears based on the results of the prediction models. Results Our proposed data mining procedures outperformed the classic statistical method. The correction rate, sensitivity, specificity and area under the ROC curve of predicting a rotator cuff tear were statistical better in the ANN and decision tree models compared to logistic regression. Based on likelihood ratios derived from our prediction models, Fagan's nomogram could be constructed to assess the probability of a patient who has a rotator cuff tear using a pretest probability and a prediction result (tear or no tear). Conclusions Our predictive data mining models, combined with likelihood ratios and Bayesian theory, appear to be good tools to classify rotator cuff tears as well as determine the probability of the presence of the disease to enhance diagnostic decision making for rotator cuff tears. PMID:24733553

Maceral distributions in Illinois coals and their paleoenvironmental implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, R.D.; Dillon, J.W.

1985-01-01

For purposes of assessing the maceral distribution of Illinois (U.S.A.) coals analyses were assembled for 326 face channel and drill core samples from 24 coal members of the Pennsylvanian System. The inertinite content of coals from the Missourian and Virgilian Series averages 16.1% (mineral free), compared to 9.4% for older coals from the Desmoinesian and older Series. This indicates there was generally a higher state of oxidation in the peat that formed the younger coals. This state probably resulted from greater exposure of these peats to weathering as the climate became drier and the water table lower than was the case for the older coals, although oxidation during allochthonous deposition of inertinite components is a genetic factor that needs further study to confirm the importance of the climate. Regional variation of the vitrinite-inertinite ratio (V-I), on a mineral- and micrinite-free basis, was observed in the Springfield (No. 5) and Herrin (No. 6) Coal Members to be related to the geographical position of paleochannel (river) deposits known to have been contemporaneous with the peats that formed these two coal strata. The V-I ratio is highest (generally 12-27) in samples from areas adjacent to the channels, and lower (5-11) some 10-20 km away. We interpret the V-I ratio to be an inverse index of the degree of oxidation to which the original peat was exposed. High V-I ratio coal located near the channels probably formed under more anoxic conditions than did the lower V-I ratio coal some distance away from the channels. The low V-I ratio coal probably formed in areas of the peat swamp where the watertable was generally lower than the channel areas. ?? 1986.

Monte Carlo role in radiobiological modelling of radiotherapy outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Naqa, Issam; Pater, Piotr; Seuntjens, Jan

2012-06-01

Radiobiological models are essential components of modern radiotherapy. They are increasingly applied to optimize and evaluate the quality of different treatment planning modalities. They are frequently used in designing new radiotherapy clinical trials by estimating the expected therapeutic ratio of new protocols. In radiobiology, the therapeutic ratio is estimated from the expected gain in tumour control probability (TCP) to the risk of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). However, estimates of TCP/NTCP are currently based on the deterministic and simplistic linear-quadratic formalism with limited prediction power when applied prospectively. Given the complex and stochastic nature of the physical, chemical and biological interactions associated with spatial and temporal radiation induced effects in living tissues, it is conjectured that methods based on Monte Carlo (MC) analysis may provide better estimates of TCP/NTCP for radiotherapy treatment planning and trial design. Indeed, over the past few decades, methods based on MC have demonstrated superior performance for accurate simulation of radiation transport, tumour growth and particle track structures; however, successful application of modelling radiobiological response and outcomes in radiotherapy is still hampered with several challenges. In this review, we provide an overview of some of the main techniques used in radiobiological modelling for radiotherapy, with focus on the MC role as a promising computational vehicle. We highlight the current challenges, issues and future potentials of the MC approach towards a comprehensive systems-based framework in radiobiological modelling for radiotherapy.

Cell cycle progression is regulated by intertwined redox oscillators.

PubMed

da Veiga Moreira, Jorgelindo; Peres, Sabine; Steyaert, Jean-Marc; Bigan, Erwan; Paulevé, Loïc; Nogueira, Marcel Levy; Schwartz, Laurent

2015-05-29

The different phases of the eukaryotic cell cycle are exceptionally well-preserved phenomena. DNA decompaction, RNA and protein synthesis (in late G1 phase) followed by DNA replication (in S phase) and lipid synthesis (in G2 phase) occur after resting cells (in G0) are committed to proliferate. The G1 phase of the cell cycle is characterized by an increase in the glycolytic metabolism, sustained by high NAD+/NADH ratio. A transient cytosolic acidification occurs, probably due to lactic acid synthesis or ATP hydrolysis, followed by cytosolic alkalinization. A hyperpolarized transmembrane potential is also observed, as result of sodium/potassium pump (NaK-ATPase) activity. During progression of the cell cycle, the Pentose Phosphate Pathway (PPP) is activated by increased NADP+/NADPH ratio, converting glucose 6-phosphate to nucleotide precursors. Then, nucleic acid synthesis and DNA replication occur in S phase. Along with S phase, unpublished results show a cytosolic acidification, probably the result of glutaminolysis occurring during this phase. In G2 phase there is a decrease in NADPH concentration (used for membrane lipid synthesis) and a cytoplasmic alkalinization occurs. Mitochondria hyperfusion matches the cytosolic acidification at late G1/S transition and then triggers ATP synthesis by oxidative phosphorylation. We hypothesize here that the cytosolic pH may coordinate mitochondrial activity and thus the different redox cycles, which in turn control the cell metabolism.

Bayesian Phase II optimization for time-to-event data based on historical information.

PubMed

Bertsche, Anja; Fleischer, Frank; Beyersmann, Jan; Nehmiz, Gerhard

2017-01-01

After exploratory drug development, companies face the decision whether to initiate confirmatory trials based on limited efficacy information. This proof-of-concept decision is typically performed after a Phase II trial studying a novel treatment versus either placebo or an active comparator. The article aims to optimize the design of such a proof-of-concept trial with respect to decision making. We incorporate historical information and develop pre-specified decision criteria accounting for the uncertainty of the observed treatment effect. We optimize these criteria based on sensitivity and specificity, given the historical information. Specifically, time-to-event data are considered in a randomized 2-arm trial with additional prior information on the control treatment. The proof-of-concept criterion uses treatment effect size, rather than significance. Criteria are defined on the posterior distribution of the hazard ratio given the Phase II data and the historical control information. Event times are exponentially modeled within groups, allowing for group-specific conjugate prior-to-posterior calculation. While a non-informative prior is placed on the investigational treatment, the control prior is constructed via the meta-analytic-predictive approach. The design parameters including sample size and allocation ratio are then optimized, maximizing the probability of taking the right decision. The approach is illustrated with an example in lung cancer.

Post-Control Surveillance of Triatoma infestans and Triatoma sordida with Chemically-Baited Sticky Traps

PubMed Central

Acosta, Nidia; López, Elsa; González, Nilsa; Zerba, Eduardo; Tarelli, Guillermo; Masuh, Héctor

2012-01-01

Background Chagas disease prevention critically depends on keeping houses free of triatomine vectors. Insecticide spraying is very effective, but re-infestation of treated dwellings is commonplace. Early detection-elimination of re-infestation foci is key to long-term control; however, all available vector-detection methods have low sensitivity. Chemically-baited traps are widely used in vector and pest control-surveillance systems; here, we test this approach for Triatoma spp. detection under field conditions in the Gran Chaco. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a repeated-sampling approach and logistic models that explicitly take detection failures into account, we simultaneously estimate vector occurrence and detection probabilities. We then model detection probabilities (conditioned on vector occurrence) as a function of trapping system to measure the effect of chemical baits. We find a positive effect of baits after three (odds ratio [OR] 5.10; 95% confidence interval [CI95] 2.59–10.04) and six months (OR 2.20, CI95 1.04–4.65). Detection probabilities are estimated at p≈0.40–0.50 for baited and at just p≈0.15 for control traps. Bait effect is very strong on T. infestans (three-month assessment: OR 12.30, CI95 4.44–34.10; p≈0.64), whereas T. sordida is captured with similar frequency in baited and unbaited traps. Conclusions/Significance Chemically-baited traps hold promise for T. infestans surveillance; the sensitivity of the system at detecting small re-infestation foci rises from 12.5% to 63.6% when traps are baited with semiochemicals. Accounting for imperfect detection, infestation is estimated at 26% (CI95 16–40) after three and 20% (CI95 11–34) after six months. In the same assessments, traps detected infestation in 14% and 8.5% of dwellings, whereas timed manual searches (the standard approach) did so in just 1.4% of dwellings only in the first survey. Since infestation rates are the main indicator used for decision-making in control programs, the approach we present may help improve T. infestans surveillance and control program management. PMID:23029583

Factors contributing to measles transmission during an outbreak in Kamwenge District, Western Uganda, April to August 2015.

PubMed

Nsubuga, Fred; Bulage, Lilian; Ampeire, Immaculate; Matovu, Joseph K B; Kasasa, Simon; Tanifum, Patricia; Riolexus, Alex Ario; Zhu, Bao-Ping

2018-01-08

In April 2015, Kamwenge District, western Uganda reported a measles outbreak. We investigated the outbreak to identify potential exposures that facilitated measles transmission, assess vaccine effectiveness (VE) and vaccination coverage (VC), and recommend prevention and control measures. For this investigation, a probable case was defined as onset of fever and generalized maculopapular rash, plus ≥1 of the following symptoms: Coryza, conjunctivitis, or cough. A confirmed case was defined as a probable case plus identification of measles-specific IgM in serum. For case-finding, we reviewed patients' medical records and conducted in-home patient examination. In a case-control study, we compared exposures of case-patients and controls matched by age and village of residence. For children aged 9 m-5y, we estimated VC using the percent of children among the controls who had been vaccinated against measles, and calculated VE using the formula, VE = 1 - OR M-H , where OR M-H was the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio associated with having a measles vaccination history. We identified 213 probable cases with onset between April and August, 2015. Of 23 blood specimens collected, 78% were positive for measles-specific IgM. Measles attack rate was highest in the youngest age-group, 0-5y (13/10,000), and decreased as age increased. The epidemic curve indicated sustained propagation in the community. Of the 50 case-patients and 200 controls, 42% of case-patients and 12% of controls visited health centers during their likely exposure period (OR M-H  = 6.1; 95% CI = 2.7-14). Among children aged 9 m-5y, VE was estimated at 70% (95% CI: 24-88%), and VC at 75% (95% CI: 67-83%). Excessive crowding was observed at all health centers; no patient triage-system existed. The spread of measles during this outbreak was facilitated by patient mixing at crowded health centers, suboptimal VE and inadequate VC. We recommended emergency immunization campaign targeting children <5y in the affected sub-counties, as well as triaging and isolation of febrile or rash patients visiting health centers.

Inverse sequential detection of parameter changes in developing time series

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Radok, Uwe; Brown, Timothy J.

1992-01-01

Progressive values of two probabilities are obtained for parameter estimates derived from an existing set of values and from the same set enlarged by one or more new values, respectively. One probability is that of erroneously preferring the second of these estimates for the existing data ('type 1 error'), while the second probability is that of erroneously accepting their estimates for the enlarged test ('type 2 error'). A more stable combined 'no change' probability which always falls between 0.5 and 0 is derived from the (logarithmic) width of the uncertainty region of an equivalent 'inverted' sequential probability ratio test (SPRT, Wald 1945) in which the error probabilities are calculated rather than prescribed. A parameter change is indicated when the compound probability undergoes a progressive decrease. The test is explicitly formulated and exemplified for Gaussian samples.

Sharing the Diagnostic Process in the Clinical Teaching Environment: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuello-Garcia; Carlos

2005-01-01

Revealing or visualizing the thinking involved in making clinical decisions is a challenge. A case study is presented with a visual implement for sharing the diagnostic process. This technique adapts the Bayesian approach to the case presentation. Pretest probabilities and likelihood ratios are gathered to obtain post-test probabilities of every…

Clinical and sonographic risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia - a case-control study with parity and gestational age matched controls.

PubMed

Parantainen, Jukka; Palomäki, Outi; Talola, Nina; Uotila, Jukka

2014-06-01

To examine the clinical risk factors and complications of shoulder dystocia today and to evaluate ultrasound methods predicting it. Retrospective, matched case-control study at a University Hospital with 5000 annual deliveries. The study population consisted of 152 deliveries complicated by shoulder dystocia over a period of 8.5 years (January 2004-June 2012) and 152 controls matched for gestational age and parity. The data was collected from the medical records of mothers and children and analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Incidences and odds ratios were calculated for risk factors and complications. Antenatal ultrasound data was analyzed when available by conditional logistic regression to test for significant differences between study groups. Birthweight (OR 12.1 for ≥4000 g; 95% CI 4.18-35.0) and vacuum extraction (OR 3.98; 95% CI 1.25-12.7) remained the most significant clinical risk factors. Only a trend of an association of pregestational or gestational diabetes was noticed (OR 1.87; 95% CI 0.997-3.495, probability of type II error 51%). Of the complications of shoulder dystocia the incidence of brachial plexus palsies was high (40%). Antenatal ultrasound method based on the difference between abdominal and biparietal diameters had a significant difference between cases and controls. The impact of diabetes as a risk factor has diminished, which may reflect improved screening and treatment. Antenatal ultrasound methods are showing some promise, but the predictive value of ultrasound alone is probably low. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Jackson, D D

1996-04-30

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions.

Hypothesis testing and earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Jackson, D D

1996-01-01

Requirements for testing include advance specification of the conditional rate density (probability per unit time, area, and magnitude) or, alternatively, probabilities for specified intervals of time, space, and magnitude. Here I consider testing fully specified hypotheses, with no parameter adjustments or arbitrary decisions allowed during the test period. Because it may take decades to validate prediction methods, it is worthwhile to formulate testable hypotheses carefully in advance. Earthquake prediction generally implies that the probability will be temporarily higher than normal. Such a statement requires knowledge of "normal behavior"--that is, it requires a null hypothesis. Hypotheses can be tested in three ways: (i) by comparing the number of actual earth-quakes to the number predicted, (ii) by comparing the likelihood score of actual earthquakes to the predicted distribution, and (iii) by comparing the likelihood ratio to that of a null hypothesis. The first two tests are purely self-consistency tests, while the third is a direct comparison of two hypotheses. Predictions made without a statement of probability are very difficult to test, and any test must be based on the ratio of earthquakes in and out of the forecast regions. PMID:11607663

The statistics of Pearce element diagrams and the Chayes closure problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, J.

1988-05-01

Pearce element ratios are defined as having a constituent in their denominator that is conserved in a system undergoing change. The presence of a conserved element in the denominator simplifies the statistics of such ratios and renders them subject to statistical tests, especially tests of significance of the correlation coefficient between Pearce element ratios. Pearce element ratio diagrams provide unambigous tests of petrologic hypotheses because they are based on the stoichiometry of rock-forming minerals. There are three ways to recognize a conserved element: 1. The petrologic behavior of the element can be used to select conserved ones. They are usually the incompatible elements. 2. The ratio of two conserved elements will be constant in a comagmatic suite. 3. An element ratio diagram that is not constructed with a conserved element in the denominator will have a trend with a near zero intercept. The last two criteria can be tested statistically. The significance of the slope, intercept and correlation coefficient can be tested by estimating the probability of obtaining the observed values from a random population of arrays. This population of arrays must satisfy two criteria: 1. The population must contain at least one array that has the means and variances of the array of analytical data for the rock suite. 2. Arrays with the means and variances of the data must not be so abundant in the population that nearly every array selected at random has the properties of the data. The population of random closed arrays can be obtained from a population of open arrays whose elements are randomly selected from probability distributions. The means and variances of these probability distributions are themselves selected from probability distributions which have means and variances equal to a hypothetical open array that would give the means and variances of the data on closure. This hypothetical open array is called the Chayes array. Alternatively, the population of random closed arrays can be drawn from the compositional space available to rock-forming processes. The minerals comprising the available space can be described with one additive component per mineral phase and a small number of exchange components. This space is called Thompson space. Statistics based on either space lead to the conclusion that Pearce element ratios are statistically valid and that Pearce element diagrams depict the processes that create chemical inhomogeneities in igneous rock suites.

Iodine-xenon studies of Allende inclusions - Eggs and the Pink Angel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swindle, T. D.; Caffee, M. W.; Hohenberg, C. M.

1988-01-01

The I-Xe systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by nonnebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Myr or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred ont the parent body. The range in initial (Pu-244)/(U-238) ratios for the Eggs (0.003-0.014) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (0.004-0.007). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swindle, T.D.; Caffee, M.W.; Hohenberg, C.M.

The iodine-xenon systems of six Allende inclusions (five Eggs and the Pink Angel) appear to have been altered by non-nebular secondary processes. Evidence for this includes temperature-ordered variations in the initial I isotopic composition within several objects (with older apparent I-Xe ages associated with higher extraction temperatures) and the absence of primitive I-Xe ages. The span of apparent ages seen in Allende objects (10 Ma or more) is probably too long to reflect any nebular process, so at least some alteration probably occurred on the parent body. The range in initial {sup 244}Pu/{sup 238}U ratios for the Eggs (3-14 {times}more » 10{sup minus 3}) includes the current best estimates of the bulk solar system value (4-7 {times} 10{sup minus 3}). For Egg 3, the Pu/U ratio varies by a factor of two between extractions, probably the result of fractionation of Pu from U among different phases.« less

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. R.; Markley, F. L.; Alfriend, K. T.; Wright, C.; Arcido, J.

2011-01-01

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Net present value probability distributions from decline curve reserves estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Simpson, D.E.; Huffman, C.H.; Thompson, R.S.

1995-12-31

This paper demonstrates how reserves probability distributions can be used to develop net present value (NPV) distributions. NPV probability distributions were developed from the rate and reserves distributions presented in SPE 28333. This real data study used practicing engineer`s evaluations of production histories. Two approaches were examined to quantify portfolio risk. The first approach, the NPV Relative Risk Plot, compares the mean NPV with the NPV relative risk ratio for the portfolio. The relative risk ratio is the NPV standard deviation (a) divided the mean ({mu}) NPV. The second approach, a Risk - Return Plot, is a plot of themore » {mu} discounted cash flow rate of return (DCFROR) versus the {sigma} for the DCFROR distribution. This plot provides a risk-return relationship for comparing various portfolios. These methods may help evaluate property acquisition and divestiture alternatives and assess the relative risk of a suite of wells or fields for bank loans.« less

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, J. Russell; Markley, F. Landis

2013-01-01

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Regarding the Focal Treatment of Prostate Cancer: Inference of the Gleason Grade From Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopic Imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brame, Ryan S.; Zaider, Marco; Zakian, Kristen L.

2009-05-01

Purpose: To quantify, as a function of average magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) score and tumor volume, the probability that a cancer-suspected lesion has an elevated Gleason grade. Methods and Materials: The data consist of MRS imaging ratios R stratified by patient, lesion (contiguous abnormal voxels), voxels, biopsy and pathologic Gleason grade, and lesion volume. The data were analyzed using a logistic model. Results: For both low and high Gleason score biopsy lesions, the probability of pathologic Gleason score {>=}4+3 increases with lesion volume. At low values of R a lesion volume of at least 15-20 voxels is needed to reachmore » a probability of success of 80%; the biopsy result helps reduce the prediction uncertainty. At larger MRS ratios (R > 6) the biopsy result becomes essentially uninformative once the lesion volume is >12 voxels. With the exception of low values of R, for lesions with low Gleason score at biopsy, the MRS ratios serve primarily as a selection tool for assessing lesion volumes. Conclusions: In patients with biopsy Gleason score {>=}4+3, high MRS imaging tumor volume and (creatine + choline)/citrate ratio may justify the initiation of voxel-specific dose escalation. This is an example of biologically motivated focal treatment for which intensity-modulated radiotherapy and especially brachytherapy are ideally suited.« less

Comparison of the deep inferior epigastric perforator flap and free transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous flap in postmastectomy reconstruction: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Thoma, Achilleas; Veltri, Karen; Khuthaila, Dana; Rockwell, Gloria; Duku, Eric

2004-05-01

This study compared the deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP) flap and the free transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous (TRAM) flap in postmastectomy reconstruction using a cost-effectiveness analysis. A decision analytic model was used. Medical costs associated with the two techniques were estimated from the Ontario Ministry of Health Schedule of Benefits for 2002. Hospital costs were obtained from St. Joseph's Healthcare, a university teaching hospital in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. The utilities of clinically important health states related to breast reconstruction were obtained from 32 "experts" across Canada and converted into quality-adjusted life years. The probabilities of these various clinically important health states being associated with the DIEP and free TRAM flaps were obtained after a thorough review of the literature. The DIEP flap was more costly than the free TRAM flap ($7026.47 versus $6508.29), but it provided more quality-adjusted life years than the free TRAM flap (28.88 years versus 28.53 years). The baseline incremental cost-utility ratio was $1464.30 per quality-adjusted life year, favoring adoption of the DIEP flap. Sensitivity analyses were performed by assuming that the probabilities of occurrence of hernia, abdominal bulging, total flap loss, operating room time, and hospital stay were identical with the DIEP and free TRAM techniques. By assuming that the probability of postoperative hernia for the DIEP flap increased from 0.008 to 0.054 (same as for TRAM flap), the incremental cost-utility ratio changed to $1435.00 per quality-adjusted life year. A sensitivity analysis was performed for the complication of hernia because the DIEP flap allegedly diminishes this complication. Increasing the probability of abdominal bulge from 0.041 to 0.103 for the DIEP flap changed the ratio to $2731.78 per quality-adjusted life year. When the probability of total flap failure was increased from 0.014 to 0.016, the ratio changed to $1384.01 per quality-adjusted life year. When the time in the operating room was assumed to be the same for both flaps, the ratio changed to $4026.57 per quality-adjusted life year. If the hospital stay was assumed to be the same for both flaps, the ratio changed to $1944.30 per quality-adjusted life year. On the basis of the baseline calculation and sensitivity analyses, the DIEP flap remained a cost-effective procedure. Thus, adoption of this new technique for postmastectomy reconstruction is warranted in the Canadian health care system.

Urinary incontinence, depression, and economic outcomes in a cohort of women between the ages of 54 and 65 years.

PubMed

Hung, Kristin J; Awtrey, Christopher S; Tsai, Alexander C

2014-04-01

To estimate the association between urinary incontinence (UI) and probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. The analytic sample consisted of 4,511 women enrolled in the population-based Health and Retirement Study cohort. The analysis baseline was 1996, the year that questions about UI were added to the survey instrument, and at which time study participants were 54-65 years of age. Women were followed-up with biennial interviews until 2010-2011. Outcomes of interest were onset of probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. Urinary incontinence was specified in different ways based on questions about experience and frequency of urine loss. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models to the data, adjusting the estimates for baseline sociodemographic and health status variables previously found to confound the association between UI and the outcomes of interest. At baseline, 727 participants (survey-weighted prevalence, 16.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.4-18.0) reported any UI, of which 212 (survey-weighted prevalence, 29.2%; 95% CI 25.4-33.3) reported urine loss on more than 15 days in the past month; and 1,052 participants were categorized as having probable depression (survey-weighted prevalence, 21.6%; 95% CI 19.8-23.6). Urinary incontinence was associated with increased risks for probable depression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI 1.27-1.62) and work disability (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45), but not workforce exit (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI 0.93-1.21). In a population-based cohort of women between ages 54 and 65 years, UI was associated with increased risks for probable depression and work disability. Improved diagnosis and management of UI may yield significant economic and psychosocial benefits.

Manipulation of primary sex ratio in birds: lessons from the homing pigeon (Columba livia domestica).

PubMed

Goerlich-Jansson, Vivian C; Müller, Martina S; Groothuis, Ton G G

2013-12-01

Across various animal taxa not only the secondary sex ratio but also the primary sex ratio (at conception) shows significant deviations from the expected equal proportions of sons and daughters. Birds are especially intriguing to study this phenomenon as avian females are the heterogametic sex (ZW); therefore sex determination might be under direct control of the mother. Avian sex ratios vary in relation to environmental or maternal condition, which can also affect the production of maternal steroids that in turn are involved in reproduction and accumulate in the developing follicle before meiosis. As the proximate mechanisms underlying biased primary sex ratio are largely elusive, we explored how, and to what extent, maternal steroid hormones may be involved in affecting primary or secondary sex ratio in clutches of various species of pigeons. First we demonstrated a clear case of seasonal change in sex ratio in first eggs both in the Rock Pigeon (Columba livia) and in a related species, the Wood Pigeon (Columba palumbus), both producing clutches of two eggs. In the Homing Pigeon (Columba livia domestica), domesticated from the Rock Pigeon, testosterone treatment of breeding females induced a clear male bias, while corticosterone induced a female bias in first eggs and we argue that this is in line with sex allocation theory. We next analyzed treatment effects on follicle formation, yolk mass, and yolk hormones, the latter both pre- and post-ovulatory, in order to test a diversity of potential mechanisms related to both primary and secondary sex ratio manipulation. We conclude that maternal plasma hormone levels may affect several pre-ovulatory mechanisms affecting primary sex ratio, whereas egg hormones are probably involved in secondary sex ratio manipulation only.

A novel method to identify herds with an increased probability of disease introduction due to animal trade.

PubMed

Frössling, Jenny; Nusinovici, Simon; Nöremark, Maria; Widgren, Stefan; Lindberg, Ann

2014-11-15

In the design of surveillance, there is often a desire to target high risk herds. Such risk-based approaches result in better allocation of resources and improve the performance of surveillance activities. For many contagious animal diseases, movement of live animals is a main route of transmission, and because of this, herds that purchase many live animals or have a large contact network due to trade can be seen as a high risk stratum of the population. This paper presents a new method to assess herd disease risk in animal movement networks. It is an improvement to current network measures that takes direction, temporal order, and also movement size and probability of disease into account. In the study, the method was used to calculate a probability of disease ratio (PDR) of herds in simulated datasets, and of real herds based on animal movement data from dairy herds included in a bulk milk survey for Coxiella burnetii. Known differences in probability of disease are easily incorporated in the calculations and the PDR was calculated while accounting for regional differences in probability of disease, and also by applying equal probability of disease throughout the population. Each herd's increased probability of disease due to purchase of animals was compared to both the average herd and herds within the same risk stratum. The results show that the PDR is able to capture the different circumstances related to disease prevalence and animal trade contact patterns. Comparison of results based on inclusion or exclusion of differences in risk also highlights how ignoring such differences can influence the ability to correctly identify high risk herds. The method shows a potential to be useful for risk-based surveillance, in the classification of herds in control programmes or to represent influential contacts in risk factor studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sex ratio variation in Iberian pigs.

PubMed

Toro, M A; Fernández, A; García-Cortés, L A; Rodrigáñez, J; Silió, L

2006-06-01

Within the area of sex allocation, one of the topics that has attracted a lot of attention is the sex ratio problem. Fisher (1930) proposed that equal numbers of males and females have been promoted by natural selection and it has an adaptive significance. But the empirical success of Fisher's theory remains doubtful because a sex ratio of 0.50 is also expected from the chromosomal mechanism of sex determination. Another way of approaching the subject is to consider that Fisher's argument relies on the underlying assumption that offspring inherit their parent's tendency in biased sex ratio and therefore that genetic variance for this trait exists. Here, we analyzed sex ratio data of 56,807 piglets coming from 550 boars and 1893 dams. In addition to classical analysis of heterogeneity we performed analyses fitting linear and threshold animal models in a Bayesian framework using Gibbs sampling techniques. The marginal posterior mean of heritability was 2.63 x 10(-4) under the sire linear model and 9.17 x 10(-4) under the sire threshold model. The probability of the hypothesis p(h(2) = 0) fitting the last model was 0.996. Also, we did not detect any trend in sex ratio related to maternal age. From an evolutionary point of view, the chromosomal sex determination acts as a constraint that precludes control of offspring sex ratio in vertebrates and it should be included in the general theory of sex allocation. From a practical view that means that the sex ratio in domestic species is hardly susceptible to modification by artificial selection.

Probability, geometry, and dynamics in the toss of a thick coin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Ee Hou; Mahadevan, L.

2011-12-01

When a thick cylindrical coin is tossed in the air and lands without bouncing on an inelastic substrate, it ends up on its face or its side. We account for the rigid body dynamics of spin and precession and calculate the probability distribution of heads, tails, and sides for a thick coin as a function of its dimensions and the distribution of its initial conditions. Our theory yields a simple expression for the aspect ratio of homogeneous coins with a prescribed frequency of heads or tails compared to sides, which we validate using data from the results of tossing coins of different aspect ratios.

Radiation detection method and system using the sequential probability ratio test

DOEpatents

Nelson, Karl E [Livermore, CA; Valentine, John D [Redwood City, CA; Beauchamp, Brock R [San Ramon, CA

2007-07-17

A method and system using the Sequential Probability Ratio Test to enhance the detection of an elevated level of radiation, by determining whether a set of observations are consistent with a specified model within a given bounds of statistical significance. In particular, the SPRT is used in the present invention to maximize the range of detection, by providing processing mechanisms for estimating the dynamic background radiation, adjusting the models to reflect the amount of background knowledge at the current point in time, analyzing the current sample using the models to determine statistical significance, and determining when the sample has returned to the expected background conditions.

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Sabaté, Manel; Kaiser, Christoph; Brugaletta, Salvatore; de la Torre Hernandez, Jose Maria; Galatius, Soeren; Cequier, Angel; Eberli, Franz; de Belder, Adam; Serruys, Patrick W; Ferrante, Giuseppe

2014-01-01

Objectives To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Design Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Data sources and study selection Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. Primary outcomes The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. Results The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. Conclusions This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis. PMID:25378023

Effects of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents or bare metal stent on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: patient level meta-analysis.

PubMed

Valgimigli, Marco; Sabaté, Manel; Kaiser, Christoph; Brugaletta, Salvatore; de la Torre Hernandez, Jose Maria; Galatius, Soeren; Cequier, Angel; Eberli, Franz; de Belder, Adam; Serruys, Patrick W; Ferrante, Giuseppe

2014-11-04

To examine the safety and effectiveness of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents. Individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. Cox proportional regression models stratified by trial, containing random effects, were used to assess the impact of stent type on outcomes. Hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for outcomes were reported. Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Randomised controlled trials that compared cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents with bare metal stents were selected. The principal investigators whose trials met the inclusion criteria provided data for individual patients. The primary outcome was cardiac mortality. Secondary endpoints were myocardial infarction, definite stent thrombosis, definite or probable stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and all cause death. The search yielded five randomised controlled trials, comprising 4896 participants. Compared with patients receiving bare metal stents, participants receiving cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents had a significant reduction of cardiac mortality (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.91; P=0.01), myocardial infarction (0.71, 0.55 to 0.92; P=0.01), definite stent thrombosis (0.41, 0.22 to 0.76; P=0.005), definite or probable stent thrombosis (0.48, 0.31 to 0.73; P<0.001), and target vessel revascularisation (0.29, 0.20 to 0.41; P<0.001) at a median follow-up of 720 days. There was no significant difference in all cause death between groups (0.83, 0.65 to 1.06; P=0.14). Findings remained unchanged at multivariable regression after adjustment for the acuity of clinical syndrome (for instance, acute coronary syndrome v stable coronary artery disease), diabetes mellitus, female sex, use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, and up to one year v longer duration treatment with dual antiplatelets. This meta-analysis offers evidence that compared with bare metal stents the use of cobalt-chromium everolimus eluting stents improves global cardiovascular outcomes including cardiac survival, myocardial infarction, and overall stent thrombosis. © Valgimigli et al 2014.

Economic Evaluation of a Multifaceted Implementation Strategy for the Prevention of Hand Eczema Among Healthcare Workers in Comparison with a Control Group: The Hands4U Study.

PubMed

van der Meer, Esther W C; van Dongen, Johanna M; Boot, Cécile R L; van der Gulden, Joost W J; Bosmans, Judith E; Anema, Johannes R

2016-05-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a multifaceted implementation strategy for the prevention of hand eczema in comparison with a control group among healthcare workers. A total of 48 departments (n=1,649) were randomly allocated to the implementation strategy or the control group. Data on hand eczema and costs were collected at baseline and every 3 months. Cost-effectiveness analyses were performed using linear multilevel analyses. The probability of the implementation strategy being cost-effective gradually increased with an increasing willingness-to-pay, to 0.84 at a ceiling ratio of €590,000 per person with hand eczema prevented (societal perspective). The implementation strategy appeared to be not cost-effective in comparison with the control group (societal perspective), nor was it cost-beneficial to the employer. However, this study had some methodological problems which should be taken into account when interpreting the results.

A Control-Based Multidimensional Approach to the Role of Optimism in the Use of Dementia Day Care Services.

PubMed

Contador, Israel; Fernández-Calvo, Bernardino; Palenzuela, David L; Campos, Francisco Ramos; Rivera-Navarro, Jesús; de Lucena, Virginia Menezes

2015-11-01

We examined whether grounded optimism and external locus of control are associated with admission to dementia day care centers (DCCs). A total of 130 informal caregivers were recruited from the Alzheimer's Association in Salamanca (northwest Spain). All caregivers completed an assessment protocol that included the Battery of Generalized Expectancies of Control Scales (BEEGC-20, acronym in Spanish) as well as depression and burden measures. The decision of the care setting at baseline assessment (own home vs DCC) was considered the main outcome measure in the logistic regression analyses. Grounded optimism was a preventive factor for admission (odds ratio [OR]: 0.34 and confidence interval [CI]: 0.15-0.75), whereas external locus of control (OR: 2.75, CI: 1.25-6.03) increased the probabilities of using DCCs. Depression mediated the relationship between optimism and DCCs, but this effect was not consistent for burden. Grounded optimism promotes the extension of care at home for patients with dementia. © The Author(s) 2013.

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

PubMed Central

Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Slatkin, Montgomery; Song, Yun S.

2011-01-01

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities.We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice. PMID:21266180

Cost-effectiveness of external cephalic version for term breech presentation.

PubMed

Tan, Jonathan M; Macario, Alex; Carvalho, Brendan; Druzin, Maurice L; El-Sayed, Yasser Y

2010-01-21

External cephalic version (ECV) is recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists to convert a breech fetus to vertex position and reduce the need for cesarean delivery. The goal of this study was to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, from society's perspective, of ECV compared to scheduled cesarean for term breech presentation. A computer-based decision model (TreeAge Pro 2008, Tree Age Software, Inc.) was developed for a hypothetical base case parturient presenting with a term singleton breech fetus with no contraindications for vaginal delivery. The model incorporated actual hospital costs (e.g., $8,023 for cesarean and $5,581 for vaginal delivery), utilities to quantify health-related quality of life, and probabilities based on analysis of published literature of successful ECV trial, spontaneous reversion, mode of delivery, and need for unanticipated emergency cesarean delivery. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. A threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) was used to determine cost-effectiveness. The incremental cost-effectiveness of ECV, assuming a baseline 58% success rate, equaled $7,900/QALY. If the estimated probability of successful ECV is less than 32%, then ECV costs more to society and has poorer QALYs for the patient. However, as the probability of successful ECV was between 32% and 63%, ECV cost more than cesarean delivery but with greater associated QALY such that the cost-effectiveness ratio was less than $50,000/QALY. If the probability of successful ECV was greater than 63%, the computer modeling indicated that a trial of ECV is less costly and with better QALYs than a scheduled cesarean. The cost-effectiveness of a trial of ECV is most sensitive to its probability of success, and not to the probabilities of a cesarean after ECV, spontaneous reversion to breech, successful second ECV trial, or adverse outcome from emergency cesarean. From society's perspective, ECV trial is cost-effective when compared to a scheduled cesarean for breech presentation provided the probability of successful ECV is > 32%. Improved algorithms are needed to more precisely estimate the likelihood that a patient will have a successful ECV.

IDENTIFYING PROBABLE DIABETES MELLITUS AMONG HISPANICS/LATINOS FROM FOUR U.S. CITIES: FINDINGS FROM THE HISPANIC COMMUNITY HEALTH STUDY/STUDY OF LATINOS.

PubMed

Avilés-Santa, M Larissa; Schneiderman, Neil; Savage, Peter J; Kaplan, Robert C; Teng, Yanping; Pérez, Cynthia M; Suárez, Erick L; Cai, Jianwen; Giachello, Aida L; Talavera, Gregory A; Cowie, Catherine C

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to compare the ability of American Diabetes Association (ADA) diagnostic criteria to identify U.S. Hispanics/Latinos from diverse heritage groups with probable diabetes mellitus and assess cardiovascular risk factor correlates of those criteria. Cross-sectional analysis of data from 15,507 adults from 6 Hispanic/Latino heritage groups, enrolled in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos. The prevalence of probable diabetes mellitus was estimated using individual or combinations of ADA-defined cut points. The sensitivity and specificity of these criteria at identifying diabetes mellitus from ADA-defined prediabetes and normoglycemia were evaluated. Prevalence ratios of hypertension, abnormal lipids, and elevated urinary albumin-creatinine ratio for unrecognized diabetes mellitus-versus prediabetes and normoglycemia-were calculated. Among Hispanics/Latinos (mean age, 43 years) with diabetes mellitus, 39.4% met laboratory test criteria for probable diabetes, and the prevalence varied by heritage group. Using the oral glucose tolerance test as the gold standard, the sensitivity of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c-alone or in combination-was low (18, 23, and 33%, respectively) at identifying probable diabetes mellitus. Individuals who met any criterion for probable diabetes mellitus had significantly higher (P<.05) prevalence of most cardiovascular risk factors than those with normoglycemia or prediabetes, and this association was not modified by Hispanic/Latino heritage group. FPG and hemoglobin A1c are not sensitive (but are highly specific) at detecting probable diabetes mellitus among Hispanics/Latinos, independent of heritage group. Assessing cardiovascular risk factors at diagnosis might prompt multitarget interventions and reduce health complications in this young population. 2hPG = 2-hour post-glucose load plasma glucose ADA = American Diabetes Association BMI = body mass index CV = cardiovascular FPG = fasting plasma glucose HbA1c = hemoglobin A1c HCHS/SOL = Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos HDL-C = high-density-lipoprotein cholesterol NGT = normal glucose tolerance NHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey OGTT = oral glucose tolerance test TG = triglyceride UACR = urine albumin-creatinine ratio.

Differentiation between inflammatory and neoplastic orbital conditions based on computed tomographic signs.

PubMed

Lederer, Kristina; Ludewig, Eberhard; Hechinger, Harald; Parry, Andrew T; Lamb, Christopher R; Kneissl, Sibylle

2015-07-01

To identify computed tomographic (CT) signs that could be used to differentiate inflammatory from neoplastic orbital conditions in small animals. Fifty-two animals (25 cats, 21 dogs, 4 rabbits, and 2 rodents). Case-control study in which CT images of animals with histopathologic diagnosis of inflammatory (n = 11), neoplastic orbital conditions (n = 31), or normal control animals (n = 10) were reviewed independently by five observers without the knowledge of the history or diagnosis. Observers recorded their observations regarding specific anatomical structures within the orbit using an itemized form containing the following characteristics: definitely normal; probably normal; equivocal; probably abnormal; and definitely abnormal. Results were statistically analyzed using Fleiss' kappa and logistic regression analyses. The overall level of agreement between observers about the presence or absence of abnormal CT signs in animals with orbital disease was poor to moderate, but was highest for observations concerning orbital bones (κ = 0.62) and involvement of the posterior segment (κ = 0.52). Significant associations between abnormalities and diagnosis were found for four structures: Abnormalities affecting orbital bones (odds ratio [OR], 1.7) and anterior ocular structures (OR, 1.5) were predictive of neoplasia, while abnormalities affecting extraconal fat (OR, 1.7) and skin (OR, 1.4) were predictive of inflammatory conditions. Orbital CT is an imaging test with high specificity. Fat stranding, a CT sign not previously emphasized in veterinary medicine, was significantly associated with inflammatory conditions. Low observer agreement probably reflects the limited resolution of CT for small orbital structures. © 2014 American College of Veterinary Ophthalmologists.

Edge Probability and Pixel Relativity-Based Speckle Reducing Anisotropic Diffusion.

PubMed

Mishra, Deepak; Chaudhury, Santanu; Sarkar, Mukul; Soin, Arvinder Singh; Sharma, Vivek

2018-02-01

Anisotropic diffusion filters are one of the best choices for speckle reduction in the ultrasound images. These filters control the diffusion flux flow using local image statistics and provide the desired speckle suppression. However, inefficient use of edge characteristics results in either oversmooth image or an image containing misinterpreted spurious edges. As a result, the diagnostic quality of the images becomes a concern. To alleviate such problems, a novel anisotropic diffusion-based speckle reducing filter is proposed in this paper. A probability density function of the edges along with pixel relativity information is used to control the diffusion flux flow. The probability density function helps in removing the spurious edges and the pixel relativity reduces the oversmoothing effects. Furthermore, the filtering is performed in superpixel domain to reduce the execution time, wherein a minimum of 15% of the total number of image pixels can be used. For performance evaluation, 31 frames of three synthetic images and 40 real ultrasound images are used. In most of the experiments, the proposed filter shows a better performance as compared to the state-of-the-art filters in terms of the speckle region's signal-to-noise ratio and mean square error. It also shows a comparative performance for figure of merit and structural similarity measure index. Furthermore, in the subjective evaluation, performed by the expert radiologists, the proposed filter's outputs are preferred for the improved contrast and sharpness of the object boundaries. Hence, the proposed filtering framework is suitable to reduce the unwanted speckle and improve the quality of the ultrasound images.

Sibling sex ratio and sexual orientation in men and women: new tests in two national probability samples.

PubMed

Bogaert, Anthony F

2005-02-01

One line of research on the etiology of sexual orientation has examined sibling sex ratio, the ratio of brothers to sisters collectively reported by a group of individuals, but this research has only used clinical and/or convenience samples. In the present study, homosexual men and women's sibling sex ratio was examined in two national probability samples. Results indicated that homosexual men had a sex ratio of 129.54 male live births to 100 female live births. This ratio was within the range of elevated sex ratios found in some previous studies of homosexual men, although it was only marginally significant (p = .09) relative to the known human sex ratio with regard to live births. Additional analyses indicated that this effect was likely the result of a high fraternal birth order (i.e., an elevated number of older brothers) in homosexual men. The sibling sex ratio for lesbians was 122.58 male live births to 100 female live births, which did not significantly differ from the known human sex ratio with regard to live births. The results for lesbians, however, should be interpreted with caution because the sample size (and resulting power) was low. The results in men add to research suggesting that homosexual men, unselected for gender identity or gender role behavior, do not have elevated sibling sex ratios. These results also suggest that research should concentrate on finding the cause(s) of the fraternal birth order effect, the consistent finding that homosexual men have an elevated number of older brothers.

Cerebral amyloid-β PET with florbetaben (18F) in patients with Alzheimer's disease and healthy controls: a multicentre phase 2 diagnostic study.

PubMed

Barthel, Henryk; Gertz, Hermann-Josef; Dresel, Stefan; Peters, Oliver; Bartenstein, Peter; Buerger, Katharina; Hiemeyer, Florian; Wittemer-Rump, Sabine M; Seibyl, John; Reininger, Cornelia; Sabri, Osama

2011-05-01

Imaging with amyloid-β PET can potentially aid the early and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease. Florbetaben (¹⁸F) is a promising ¹⁸F-labelled amyloid-β-targeted PET tracer in clinical development. We aimed to assess the sensitivity and specificity of florbetaben (¹⁸F) PET in discriminating between patients with probable Alzheimer's disease and elderly healthy controls. We did a multicentre, open-label, non-randomised phase 2 study in 18 centres in Australia, Germany, Switzerland, and the USA. Imaging with florbetaben (¹⁸F) PET was done on patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (age 55 years or older, mini-mental state examination [MMSE] score=18-26, clinical dementia rating [CDR]=0·5-2·0) and age-matched healthy controls (MMSE ≥ 28, CDR=0). Our primary objective was to establish the diagnostic efficacy of the scans in differentiating between patients with probable disease and age-matched healthy controls on the basis of neocortical tracer uptake pattern 90-110 min post-injection. PET images were assessed visually by three readers masked to the clinical diagnosis and all other clinical findings, and quantitatively by use of pre-established brain volumes of interest to obtain standard uptake value ratios (SUVRs), taking the cerebellar cortex as the reference region. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00750282. 81 participants with probable Alzheimer's disease and 69 healthy controls were assessed. Independent visual assessment of the PET scans showed a sensitivity of 80% (95% CI 71-89) and a specificity of 91% (84-98) for discriminating participants with Alzheimer's disease from healthy controls. The SUVRs in all neocortical grey-matter regions in participants with Alzheimer's disease were significantly higher (p < 0·0001) compared with the healthy controls, with the posterior cingulate being the best discriminator. Linear discriminant analysis of regional SUVRs yielded a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 91%. Regional SUVRs also correlated well with scores of cognitive impairment such as the MMSE and the word-list memory and word-list recall scores (r -0·27 to -0·33, p ≤ 0·021). APOE ɛ4 was more common in participants with positive PET images compared with those with negative scans (65%vs 22% [p=0·027] in patients with Alzheimer's disease; 50%vs 16% [p = 0·074] in healthy controls). No safety concerns were noted. We provide verification of the efficacy, safety, and biological relevance of florbetaben (¹⁸F) amyloid-β PET and suggest its potential as a visual adjunct in the diagnostic algorithm of dementia. Bayer Schering Pharma AG. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generating an Empirical Probability Distribution for the Andrews-Pregibon Statistic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarrell, Michele G.

A probability distribution was developed for the Andrews-Pregibon (AP) statistic. The statistic, developed by D. F. Andrews and D. Pregibon (1978), identifies multivariate outliers. It is a ratio of the determinant of the data matrix with an observation deleted to the determinant of the entire data matrix. Although the AP statistic has been used…

Subarachnoid hemorrhage admissions retrospectively identified using a prediction model

PubMed Central

McIntyre, Lauralyn; Fergusson, Dean; Turgeon, Alexis; dos Santos, Marlise P.; Lum, Cheemun; Chassé, Michaël; Sinclair, John; Forster, Alan; van Walraven, Carl

2016-01-01

Objective: To create an accurate prediction model using variables collected in widely available health administrative data records to identify hospitalizations for primary subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods: A previously established complete cohort of consecutive primary SAH patients was combined with a random sample of control hospitalizations. Chi-square recursive partitioning was used to derive and internally validate a model to predict the probability that a patient had primary SAH (due to aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation) using health administrative data. Results: A total of 10,322 hospitalizations with 631 having primary SAH (6.1%) were included in the study (5,122 derivation, 5,200 validation). In the validation patients, our recursive partitioning algorithm had a sensitivity of 96.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 93.9–98.0), a specificity of 99.8% (95% CI 99.6–99.9), and a positive likelihood ratio of 483 (95% CI 254–879). In this population, patients meeting criteria for the algorithm had a probability of 45% of truly having primary SAH. Conclusions: Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to accurately identify hospitalized patients with a high probability of having a primary SAH. This algorithm may allow, upon validation, an easy and accurate method to create validated cohorts of primary SAH from either ruptured aneurysm or arteriovenous malformation. PMID:27629096

Wind tunnel tests on a tail-less swept wing span-distributed cargo aircraft configuration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rao, D. M.; Huffman, J. K.

1978-01-01

The configuration consisted of a 30 deg -swept, untapered, untwisted wing utilizing a low-moment cambered airfoil of 20 percent streamwise thickness designed for low wave drag at M = 0.6, C sub L = 0.4. The tests covered a range of Mach numbers 0.3 to 0.725 and chord Reynolds number 1,100,000 to 2,040,000, angles of attack up to model buffet and sideslip angles + or - 4 deg. Configuration build up, wing pod filleting, airfoil modification and trailing edge control deflection effects were briefly investigated. Three wing tip vertical tail designs were also tested. Wing body filleting and a simple airfoil modification both produced increments to maximum lift/drag ratio. Addition of pods eliminated pitch instability of the basic wing. While the magnitude of these benefits probably was Reynolds number sensitive, they underline the potential for improving the aerodynamics of the present configuration. The cruise parameter (product of Mach number and lift/drag ratio) attained a maximum close to the airfoil design point. The configuration was found to be positively stable with normal control effectiveness about all three axes in the Mach number and C sub L range of interest.

Critical Values for Lawshe's Content Validity Ratio: Revisiting the Original Methods of Calculation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ayre, Colin; Scally, Andrew John

2014-01-01

The content validity ratio originally proposed by Lawshe is widely used to quantify content validity and yet methods used to calculate the original critical values were never reported. Methods for original calculation of critical values are suggested along with tables of exact binomial probabilities.

Stent thrombosis and major clinical events at 3 years after zotarolimus-eluting or sirolimus-eluting coronary stent implantation: a randomised, multicentre, open-label, controlled trial.

PubMed

Camenzind, Edoardo; Wijns, William; Mauri, Laura; Kurowski, Volkhard; Parikh, Keyur; Gao, Runlin; Bode, Christoph; Greenwood, John P; Boersma, Eric; Vranckx, Pascal; McFadden, Eugene; Serruys, Patrick W; O'Neil, William W; Jorissen, Brenda; Van Leeuwen, Frank; Steg, Ph Gabriel

2012-10-20

We sought to compare the long-term safety of two devices with different antiproliferative properties: the Endeavor zotarolimus-eluting stent (E-ZES; Medtronic, Inc) and the Cypher sirolimus-eluting stent (C-SES; Cordis, Johnson & Johnson) in a broad group of patients and lesions. Between May 21, 2007 and Dec 22, 2008, we recruited 8791 patients from 36 recruiting countries to participate in this open-label, multicentre, randomised, superiority trial. Eligible patients were those aged 18 years or older undergoing elective, unplanned, or emergency procedures in native coronary arteries. Patients were randomly assigned to either receive E-ZES and C-SES (ratio 1:1). Randomisation was stratified per centre with varying block sizes of four, six, or eight patients, and concealed with a central telephone-based or web-based allocation service. The primary outcome was definite or probable stent thrombosis at 3 years and was analysed by intention to treat. Patients and investigators were aware of treatment assignment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00476957. PROTECT randomised 8791 patients, of whom 8709 provided consent to participate and were eligible: 4357 were allocated to the E-ZES group and 4352 patients to the C-SES group. At 3 years, rates of definite or probable stent thrombosis did not differ between groups (1·4% for E-ZES [predicted: 1·5%] vs 1·8% [predicted: 2·5%] for C-SES; hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·58-1·14, p=0·22). Dual antiplatelet therapy was used in 8402 (96%) patients at discharge, 7456 (88%) at 1 year, 3041 (37%) at 2 years, and 2364 (30%) at 3 years. No evidence of superiority of E-ZES compared with C-SES in definite or probable stent thrombosis rates was noted at 3 years. Time analysis suggests a difference in definite or probable stent thrombosis between groups is emerging over time, and a longer follow-up is therefore needed given the clinical relevance of stent thrombosis. Medtronic, Inc. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supernova Driving. II. Compressive Ratio in Molecular-cloud Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Liubin; Padoan, Paolo; Haugbølle, Troels; Nordlund, Åke

2016-07-01

The compressibility of molecular cloud (MC) turbulence plays a crucial role in star formation models, because it controls the amplitude and distribution of density fluctuations. The relation between the compressive ratio (the ratio of powers in compressive and solenoidal motions) and the statistics of turbulence has been previously studied systematically only in idealized simulations with random external forces. In this work, we analyze a simulation of large-scale turbulence (250 pc) driven by supernova (SN) explosions that has been shown to yield realistic MC properties. We demonstrate that SN driving results in MC turbulence with a broad lognormal distribution of the compressive ratio, with a mean value ≈0.3, lower than the equilibrium value of ≈0.5 found in the inertial range of isothermal simulations with random solenoidal driving. We also find that the compressibility of the turbulence is not noticeably affected by gravity, nor are the mean cloud radial (expansion or contraction) and solid-body rotation velocities. Furthermore, the clouds follow a general relation between the rms density and the rms Mach number similar to that of supersonic isothermal turbulence, though with a large scatter, and their average gas density probability density function is described well by a lognormal distribution, with the addition of a high-density power-law tail when self-gravity is included.

Experience with multiple control groups in a large population-based case-control study on genetic and environmental risk factors.

PubMed

Pomp, E R; Van Stralen, K J; Le Cessie, S; Vandenbroucke, J P; Rosendaal, F R; Doggen, C J M

2010-07-01

We discuss the analytic and practical considerations in a large case-control study that had two control groups; the first control group consisting of partners of patients and the second obtained by random digit dialling (RDD). As an example of the evaluation of a general lifestyle factor, we present body mass index (BMI). Both control groups had lower BMIs than the patients. The distribution in the partner controls was closer to that of the patients, likely due to similar lifestyles. A statistical approach was used to pool the results of both analyses, wherein partners were analyzed with a matched analysis, while RDDs were analyzed without matching. Even with a matched analysis, the odds ratio with partner controls remained closer to unity than with RDD controls, which is probably due to unmeasured confounders in the comparison with the random controls as well as intermediary factors. However, when studying injuries as a risk factor, the odds ratio remained higher with partner control subjects than with RRD control subjects, even after taking the matching into account. Finally we used factor V Leiden as an example of a genetic risk factor. The frequencies of factor V Leiden were identical in both control groups, indicating that for the analyses of this genetic risk factor the two control groups could be combined in a single unmatched analysis. In conclusion, the effect measures with the two control groups were in the same direction, and of the same order of magnitude. Moreover, it was not always the same control group that produced the higher or lower estimates, and a matched analysis did not remedy the differences. Our experience with the intricacies of dealing with two control groups may be useful to others when thinking about an optimal research design or the best statistical approach.

Transition probabilities of Ce I obtained from Boltzmann analysis of visible and near-infrared emission spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nitz, D. E.; Curry, J. J.; Buuck, M.; DeMann, A.; Mitchell, N.; Shull, W.

2018-02-01

We report radiative transition probabilities for 5029 emission lines of neutral cerium within the wavelength range 417-1110 nm. Transition probabilities for only 4% of these lines have been previously measured. These results are obtained from a Boltzmann analysis of two high resolution Fourier transform emission spectra used in previous studies of cerium, obtained from the digital archives of the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak. The set of transition probabilities used for the Boltzmann analysis are those published by Lawler et al (2010 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 43 085701). Comparisons of branching ratios and transition probabilities for lines common to the two spectra provide important self-consistency checks and test for the presence of self-absorption effects. Estimated 1σ uncertainties for our transition probability results range from 10% to 18%.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Kinetic aspects of chain growth in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.

PubMed

Filot, Ivo A W; Zijlstra, Bart; Broos, Robin J P; Chen, Wei; Pestman, Robert; Hensen, Emiel J M

2017-04-28

Microkinetics simulations are used to investigate the elementary reaction steps that control chain growth in the Fischer-Tropsch reaction. Chain growth in the FT reaction on stepped Ru surfaces proceeds via coupling of CH and CR surface intermediates. Essential to the growth mechanism are C-H dehydrogenation and C hydrogenation steps, whose kinetic consequences have been examined by formulating two novel kinetic concepts, the degree of chain-growth probability control and the thermodynamic degree of chain-growth probability control. For Ru the CO conversion rate is controlled by the removal of O atoms from the catalytic surface. The temperature of maximum CO conversion rate is higher than the temperature to obtain maximum chain-growth probability. Both maxima are determined by Sabatier behavior, but the steps that control chain-growth probability are different from those that control the overall rate. Below the optimum for obtaining long hydrocarbon chains, the reaction is limited by the high total surface coverage: in the absence of sufficient vacancies the CHCHR → CCHR + H reaction is slowed down. Beyond the optimum in chain-growth probability, CHCR + H → CHCHR and OH + H → H 2 O limit the chain-growth process. The thermodynamic degree of chain-growth probability control emphasizes the critical role of the H and free-site coverage and shows that at high temperature, chain depolymerization contributes to the decreased chain-growth probability. That is to say, during the FT reaction chain growth is much faster than chain depolymerization, which ensures high chain-growth probability. The chain-growth rate is also fast compared to chain-growth termination and the steps that control the overall CO conversion rate, which are O removal steps for Ru.

Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking.

PubMed

Xie, Zhixin; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben

2017-01-01

There is a significant gender imbalance on financial trading floors. This motivated us to investigate gender differences in financial risk taking under pressure. We used a well-established approach from behavior economics to analyze a series of risky monetary choices by male and female participants with and without time pressure. We also used second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and face width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as correlates of pre-natal exposure to testosterone. We constructed a structural model and estimated the participants' risk attitudes and probability perceptions via maximum likelihood estimation under both expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent utility (RDU) models. In line with existing research, we found that male participants are less risk averse and that the gender gap in risk attitudes increases under moderate time pressure. We found that female participants with lower 2D:4D ratios and higher fWHR are less risk averse in RDU estimates. Males with lower 2D:4D ratios were less risk averse in EU estimations, but more risk averse using RDU estimates. We also observe that men whose ratios indicate a greater prenatal exposure to testosterone exhibit a greater optimism and overestimation of small probabilities of success.

Controlling for Frailty in Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies of Older Adults: Validation of an Existing Medicare Claims-based Algorithm.

PubMed

Cuthbertson, Carmen C; Kucharska-Newton, Anna; Faurot, Keturah R; Stürmer, Til; Jonsson Funk, Michele; Palta, Priya; Windham, B Gwen; Thai, Sydney; Lund, Jennifer L

2018-07-01

Frailty is a geriatric syndrome characterized by weakness and weight loss and is associated with adverse health outcomes. It is often an unmeasured confounder in pharmacoepidemiologic and comparative effectiveness studies using administrative claims data. Among the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study Visit 5 participants (2011-2013; n = 3,146), we conducted a validation study to compare a Medicare claims-based algorithm of dependency in activities of daily living (or dependency) developed as a proxy for frailty with a reference standard measure of phenotypic frailty. We applied the algorithm to the ARIC participants' claims data to generate a predicted probability of dependency. Using the claims-based algorithm, we estimated the C-statistic for predicting phenotypic frailty. We further categorized participants by their predicted probability of dependency (<5%, 5% to <20%, and ≥20%) and estimated associations with difficulties in physical abilities, falls, and mortality. The claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty (C-statistic = 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67, 0.74). Participants classified with a high predicted probability of dependency (≥20%) had higher prevalence of falls and difficulty in physical ability, and a greater risk of 1-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 5.7 [95% CI = 2.5, 13]) than participants classified with a low predicted probability (<5%). Sensitivity and specificity varied across predicted probability of dependency thresholds. The Medicare claims-based algorithm showed good discrimination of phenotypic frailty and high predictive ability with adverse health outcomes. This algorithm can be used in future Medicare claims analyses to reduce confounding by frailty and improve study validity.

Probability-based nitrate contamination map of groundwater in Kinmen.

PubMed

Liu, Chen-Wuing; Wang, Yeuh-Bin; Jang, Cheng-Shin

2013-12-01

Groundwater supplies over 50% of drinking water in Kinmen. Approximately 16.8% of groundwater samples in Kinmen exceed the drinking water quality standard (DWQS) of NO3 (-)-N (10 mg/L). The residents drinking high nitrate-polluted groundwater pose a potential risk to health. To formulate effective water quality management plan and assure a safe drinking water in Kinmen, the detailed spatial distribution of nitrate-N in groundwater is a prerequisite. The aim of this study is to develop an efficient scheme for evaluating spatial distribution of nitrate-N in residential well water using logistic regression (LR) model. A probability-based nitrate-N contamination map in Kinmen is constructed. The LR model predicted the binary occurrence probability of groundwater nitrate-N concentrations exceeding DWQS by simple measurement variables as independent variables, including sampling season, soil type, water table depth, pH, EC, DO, and Eh. The analyzed results reveal that three statistically significant explanatory variables, soil type, pH, and EC, are selected for the forward stepwise LR analysis. The total ratio of correct classification reaches 92.7%. The highest probability of nitrate-N contamination map presents in the central zone, indicating that groundwater in the central zone should not be used for drinking purposes. Furthermore, a handy EC-pH-probability curve of nitrate-N exceeding the threshold of DWQS was developed. This curve can be used for preliminary screening of nitrate-N contamination in Kinmen groundwater. This study recommended that the local agency should implement the best management practice strategies to control nonpoint nitrogen sources and carry out a systematic monitoring of groundwater quality in residential wells of the high nitrate-N contamination zones.

Performance of synchronous optical receivers using atmospheric compensation techniques.

PubMed

Belmonte, Aniceto; Khan, Joseph

2008-09-01

We model the impact of atmospheric turbulence-induced phase and amplitude fluctuations on free-space optical links using synchronous detection. We derive exact expressions for the probability density function of the signal-to-noise ratio in the presence of turbulence. We consider the effects of log-normal amplitude fluctuations and Gaussian phase fluctuations, in addition to local oscillator shot noise, for both passive receivers and those employing active modal compensation of wave-front phase distortion. We compute error probabilities for M-ary phase-shift keying, and evaluate the impact of various parameters, including the ratio of receiver aperture diameter to the wave-front coherence diameter, and the number of modes compensated.

The effects of theophylline on hospital admissions and exacerbations in COPD patients: audit data from the Bavarian disease management program.

PubMed

Fexer, Johannes; Donnachie, Ewan; Schneider, Antonius; Wagenpfeil, Stefan; Keller, Manfred; Hofmann, Frank; Mehring, Michael

2014-04-25

Theophylline is often used to treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Current evidence leaves the effectiveness and safety of this drug open to question. Thus, we evaluated the effectiveness of theophylline on the rate of hospitalizations and disease exacerbations by examining routine data from the ambulatory disease management program for COPD in the German state of Bavaria. Data sets from a total of 30 330 patients were examined. Logistic regression models were used to calculate propensity scores that controlled for baseline characteristics. These propensity scores, in turn, were used to create comparable patient groups, which were observed for a median follow-up time of 9 quarters (the theophylline group) and 10 quarters (the control group). 1496 patients with first prescription of theophylline were matched with 1496 patients with no record of theophylline treatment. 1. The probability of suffering an exacerbation during the period of observation, was 33.5% for the control group and 43.4% for the theophylline group [hazard ratio (HR) 1.41; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24 to 1.60], yielding a number needed to harm (NNH) of 11 (95% CI 7.7 to 20.9). The probability for hospitalization was 11.4% for the control group and 17.4% of the theophylline group (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.29 to 2.01), yielding a NNH of 17 (95%CI 11.0-34.5). Treatment with theophylline is associated with an elevated incidence of exacerbations and hospitalizations. The therapeutic value of this drug should be reconsidered and investigated in further studies.

Psychosocial work environment and burnout among emergency medical and nursing staff.

PubMed

Escribà-Agüir, V; Martín-Baena, D; Pérez-Hoyos, S

2006-11-01

The prevalence of burnout syndrome is increasing among doctors and nurses. The aim of this study was to analyse the relationship between the psychosocial work environment and burnout syndrome among emergency medical and nursing staff in Spain. A secondary aim was to determine if the effect of this psychosocial work environment on burnout was different for doctors and nurses. A cross-sectional survey was carried out by means of a mail questionnaire among 945 emergency doctors and nursing staff of Spain. The outcome variable was three dimensions of burnout syndrome [emotional exhaustion (EE), personal accomplishment (PA), depersonalisation (DP)]. The explanatory variable was that psychosocial work environment evaluated according to Karasek and Johnson's demand-control model. The adjusted odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated by logistical regression. The probability of high EE was greater among those exposed to high psychological demands, OR 4.66 (2.75-7.90), low job control, OR 1.65 (1.04-2.63), and low supervisors' social support, OR 1.64 (1.01-2.59). Emotional exhaustion dimension was negatively influenced by low control only among doctors. Those exposed to low job control had a higher risk of low PA, OR 2.55 (1.66-3.94). There was no evidence of negative effect of psychosocial risk factors on the DP. Prevalence of EE and PA was higher among doctors and nurses. The presence of risk factors derived from work organisation within the work place (psychosocial risk factors) increases the probability of presenting burnout syndrome and, above all, EE.

A case-control study of mesothelioma and employment in the Hawaii sugarcane industry.

PubMed

Sinks, T; Goodman, M T; Kolonel, L N; Anderson, B

1994-07-01

We conducted a case-control study of 93 mesothelioma cases and 281 cancer controls to determine whether sugarcane workers exposed to biogenic silica fibers were at increased risk of mesothelioma. We found no important excess risk of mesothelioma in sugarcane workers [odds ratio (OR) = 1.3; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4-3.8] when we excluded all control subjects with cancer of sites suspected of being associated with asbestos exposure. We could not identify any sugarcane workers who developed mesothelioma and worked in jobs where high exposure levels of biogenic silica fibers have been measured. We did confirm that mesothelioma risk in Hawaii is associated with probable occupational asbestos exposure. Work at the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard was associated with a 10-fold increase in mesothelioma when we excluded controls with cancer of sites related to asbestos exposure (OR = 10.1; 95% CI = 2.6-56.6). Work in the medical industry was also associated with an unexpected increased risk for mesothelioma (OR = 4.2; 95% CI = 1.2-15.5).

Rating competitors before tournament starts: How it's affecting team progression in a soccer tournament

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Muhammad Mat; Sulaiman, Tajularipin; Khalid, Ruzelan; Hamid, Mohamad Shukri Abdul; Mansor, Rosnalini

2014-12-01

In professional sporting events, rating competitors before tournament start is a well-known approach to distinguish the favorite team and the weaker teams. Various methodologies are used to rate competitors. In this paper, we explore four ways to rate competitors; least squares rating, maximum likelihood strength ratio, standing points in large round robin simulation and previous league rank position. The tournament metric we used to evaluate different types of rating approach is tournament outcome characteristics measure. The tournament outcome characteristics measure is defined by the probability that a particular team in the top 100q pre-tournament rank percentile progress beyond round R, for all q and R. Based on simulation result, we found that different rating approach produces different effect to the team. Our simulation result shows that from eight teams participate in knockout standard seeding, Perak has highest probability to win for tournament that use the least squares rating approach, PKNS has highest probability to win using the maximum likelihood strength ratio and the large round robin simulation approach, while Perak has the highest probability to win a tournament using previous league season approach.

Osteoporosis improvement: a large-scale randomized controlled trial of patient and primary care physician education.

PubMed

Solomon, Daniel H; Katz, Jeffrey N; Finkelstein, Joel S; Polinski, Jennifer M; Stedman, Margaret; Brookhart, M Alan; Arnold, Marilyn; Gauthier, Suzanne; Avorn, Jerry

2007-11-01

We conducted a randomized controlled trial within the setting of a large drug benefit plan for Medicare beneficiaries. Primary care physicians and their patients were randomized to usual care, patient intervention only, physician intervention only, or both interventions. There was no difference in the probability of the primary composite endpoint (BMD test or osteoporosis medication) or in either of its components comparing the combined intervention group with usual care (risk ratio = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85-1.26). Fractures from osteoporosis are associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, and cost. However, only a minority of at-risk older adults receives screening and/or treatment for this condition. We evaluated the effect of educational interventions for osteoporosis targeting at-risk patients, primary care physicians, or both. We conducted a randomized controlled trial within the setting of a large drug benefit plan for Medicare beneficiaries. Primary care physicians and their patients were randomized to usual care, patient intervention only, physician intervention only, or both interventions. The at-risk patients were women >or=65 yr of age, men and women >or=65 yr of age with a prior fracture, and men and women >or=65 yr of age who used oral glucocorticoids. The primary outcome studied was a composite of either undergoing a BMD test or initiating a medication used for osteoporosis. The secondary outcome was a hip, humerus, spine, or wrist fracture. We randomized 828 primary care physicians and their 13,455 eligible at-risk patients into four study arms. Physician and patient characteristics were very similar across all four groups. Across all four groups, the rate of the composite outcome was 10.3 per 100 person-years and did not differ between the usual care and the combined intervention groups (p = 0.5). In adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, there was no difference in the probability of the primary composite endpoint comparing the combined intervention group with usual care (risk ratio = 1.04; 95% CI, 0.85-1.26). There was also no difference in either of the components of the composite endpoint. The probability of fracture during follow-up was 4.2 per 100 person-years and did not differ by treatment assignment (p = 0.9). In this trial, a relatively brief program of patient and/or physician education did not work to improve the management of osteoporosis. More intensive efforts should be considered for future quality improvement programs for osteoporosis.

DEM simulation of flow of dumbbells on a rough inclined plane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Sandip; Khakhar, Devang

2015-11-01

The rheology of non-spherical granular materials such as food grains, sugar cubes, sand, pharmaceutical pills, among others, is not understood well. We study the flow of non-spherical dumbbells of different aspect ratios on a rough inclined plane by using soft sphere DEM simulations. The dumbbells are generated by fusing two spheres together and a linear spring dashpot model along with Coulombic friction is employed to calculate inter-particle forces. At steady state, a uni-directional shear flow is obtained which allows for a detailed study of the rheology. The effect of aspect ratio and inclination angle on mean velocity, volume fraction, shear rate, shear stress, pressure and viscosity profiles is examined. The effect of aspect ratio on probability distribution of angles, made by the major axes of the dumbbells with the flow direction, average angle and order parameter is analyzed. The dense flow rheology is well explained by Bagnold's law and the constitutive laws of JFP model. The dependencies of first and second normal stress differences on aspect ratio are studied. The probability distributions of translational and rotational velocity are analyzed.

Branching ratios of α-decay to ground and excited states of Fm, Cf, Cm and Pu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassanabadi, H.; Hosseini, S. S.

2018-06-01

We use the well-known Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) barrier penetration probability to calculate α-decay branching ratios for ground and excited states of heavy even-even nuclei of Fermium (248-254Fm), Californium (244-252Cf), Curium (238-248Cm) and Plutonium (234-244Pu) with 94 ≤Zp ≤100. We obtained the branching ratios for the excited states of daughter nucleus by the α-decay energy (Qα), the angular momentum of α-particle (ℓα), and the excitation probability of the daughter nucleus with the excitation energy of state ℓ in the daughter nucleus (i.e. Eℓ*). α-Decay half-lives have been evaluated by using the proximity potential model for the heavy even-even nuclei. We have reported the half-lives and compared the results with the experimental data. The theoretical branching ratios of α-transitions in our calculation are found to agree with the available experimental data well for 0+→ 0+, 0+→ 2+, 0+→ 4+, 0+→ 6+ and 0+ → 8+α-transitions.

Multicentric study on malignant pleural mesothelioma and non-occupational exposure to asbestos.

PubMed

Magnani, C; Agudo, A; González, C A; Andrion, A; Calleja, A; Chellini, E; Dalmasso, P; Escolar, A; Hernandez, S; Ivaldi, C; Mirabelli, D; Ramirez, J; Turuguet, D; Usel, M; Terracini, B

2000-07-01

Insufficient evidence exists on the risk of pleural mesothelioma from non-occupational exposure to asbestos. A population-based case-control study was carried out in six areas from Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Information was collected for 215 new histologically confirmed cases and 448 controls. A panel of industrial hygienists assessed asbestos exposure separately for occupational, domestic and environmental sources. Classification of domestic and environmental exposure was based on a complete residential history, presence and use of asbestos at home, asbestos industrial activities in the surrounding area, and their distance from the dwelling. In 53 cases and 232 controls without evidence of occupational exposure to asbestos, moderate or high probability of domestic exposure was associated with an increased risk adjusted by age and sex: odds ratio (OR) 4.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-13.1. This corresponds to three situations: cleaning asbestos-contaminated clothes, handling asbestos material and presence of asbestos material susceptible to damage. The estimated OR for high probability of environmental exposure (living within 2000 m of asbestos mines, asbestos cement plants, asbestos textiles, shipyards, or brakes factories) was 11.5 (95% CI 3.5-38.2). Living between 2000 and 5000 m from asbestos industries or within 500 m of industries using asbestos could also be associated with an increased risk. A dose-response pattern appeared with intensity of both sources of exposure. It is suggested that low-dose exposure to asbestos at home or in the general environment carries a measurable risk of malignant pleural mesothelioma.

Structural practices for controlling sediment transport from erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriels, Donald; Verbist, Koen; Van de Linden, Bruno

2013-04-01

Erosion on agricultural fields in the hilly regions of Flanders, Belgium has been recognized as an important economical and ecological problem that requires effective control measures. This has led to the implementation of on-site and off-site measures such as reduced tillage and the installation of grass buffers trips, and dams made of vegetative materials. Dams made out of coir (coconut) and wood chips were evaluated on three different levels of complexity. Under laboratory conditions, one meter long dams were submitted to two different discharges and three sediment concentrations under two different slopes, to assess the sediment delivery ratios under variable conditions. At the field scale, discharge and sediment concentrations were monitored under natural rainfall conditions on six 3 m wide plots, of which three were equipped with coir dams, while the other three served as control plots. The same plots were also used for rainfall simulations, which allowed controlling sediment delivery boundary conditions more precisely. Results show a clear advantage of these dams to reduce discharge by minimum 49% under both field and laboratory conditions. Sediment delivery ratios (SDR) were very small under laboratory and field rainfall simulations (4-9% and 2% respectively), while larger SDRs were observed under natural conditions (43%), probably due to the small sediment concentrations (1-5 g l-1) observed and as such a larger influence of boundary effects. Also a clear enrichment of larger sand particles (+167%) could be observed behind the dams, showing a significant selective filtering effect.

Glycemic Control Associated With Secure Patient-Provider Messaging Within a Shared Electronic Medical Record

PubMed Central

Harris, Lynne T.; Koepsell, Thomas D.; Haneuse, Sebastien J.; Martin, Diane P.; Ralston, James D.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE To study differences in glycemic control and HbA1c testing associated with use of secure electronic patient-provider messaging. We hypothesized that messaging use would be associated with better glycemic control and a higher rate of adherence to HbA1c testing recommendations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Retrospective observational study of secure messaging at Group Health, a large nonprofit health care system. Our analysis included adults with diabetes who had registered for access to a shared electronic medical record (SMR) between 2003 and 2006. We fit log-linear regression models, using generalized estimating equations, to estimate the adjusted rate ratio of meeting three indicators of glycemic control (HbA1c <7%, HbA1c <8%, and HbA1c >9%) and HbA1c testing adherence by level of previous messaging use. Multiple imputation and inverse probability weights were used to account for missing data. RESULTS During the study period, 6,301 adults with diabetes registered for access to the SMR. Of these individuals, 74% used messaging at least once during that time. Frequent use of messaging during the previous calendar quarter was associated with a higher rate of good glycemic control (HbA1c <7%: rate ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.15–1.37]) and a higher rate testing adherence (1.20 [1.15–1.25]). CONCLUSIONS Among SMR users, recent and frequent messaging use was associated with better glycemic control and a higher rate of HbA1c testing adherence. These results suggest that secure messaging may facilitate important processes of care and help some patients to achieve or maintain adequate glycemic control. PMID:23628618

Diagnostic utility of amyloid PET in cerebral amyloid angiopathy-related symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Baron, Jean-Claude; Farid, Karim; Dolan, Eamon; Turc, Guillaume; Marrapu, Siva T; O'Brien, Eoin; Aigbirhio, Franklin I; Fryer, Tim D; Menon, David K; Warburton, Elizabeth A; Hong, Young T

2014-01-01

By detecting β-amyloid (Aβ) in the wall of cortical arterioles, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) imaging might help diagnose cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) in patients with lobar intracerebral hemorrhage (l-ICH). No previous study has directly assessed the diagnostic value of 11C-Pittsburgh compound B (PiB) PET in probable CAA-related l-ICH against healthy controls (HCs). 11C-PiB-PET and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) including T2* were obtained in 11 nondemented patients fulfilling the Boston criteria for probable CAA-related symptomatic l-ICH (sl-ICH) and 20 HCs without cognitive complaints or impairment. After optimal spatial normalization, cerebral spinal fluid (CSF)-corrected PiB distribution volume ratios (DVRs) were obtained. There was no significant difference in whole cortex or regional DVRs between CAA patients and age-matched HCs. The whole cortex DVR was above the 95% confidence limit in 4/9 HCs and 10/11 CAA patients (sensitivity=91%, specificity=55%). Region/frontal or occipital ratios did not have better discriminative value. Similar but less accurate results were found using visual analysis. In patients with sl-ICH, 11C-PiB-PET has low specificity for CAA due to the frequent occurrence of high 11C-PiB uptake in the healthy elderly reflecting incipient Alzheimer's disease (AD), which might also be present in suspected CAA. However, a negative PiB scan rules out CAA with excellent sensitivity, which has clinical implications for prognostication and selection of candidates for drug trials. PMID:24619277

Fault detection on a sewer network by a combination of a Kalman filter and a binary sequential probability ratio test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piatyszek, E.; Voignier, P.; Graillot, D.

2000-05-01

One of the aims of sewer networks is the protection of population against floods and the reduction of pollution rejected to the receiving water during rainy events. To meet these goals, managers have to equip the sewer networks with and to set up real-time control systems. Unfortunately, a component fault (leading to intolerable behaviour of the system) or sensor fault (deteriorating the process view and disturbing the local automatism) makes the sewer network supervision delicate. In order to ensure an adequate flow management during rainy events it is essential to set up procedures capable of detecting and diagnosing these anomalies. This article introduces a real-time fault detection method, applicable to sewer networks, for the follow-up of rainy events. This method consists in comparing the sensor response with a forecast of this response. This forecast is provided by a model and more precisely by a state estimator: a Kalman filter. This Kalman filter provides not only a flow estimate but also an entity called 'innovation'. In order to detect abnormal operations within the network, this innovation is analysed with the binary sequential probability ratio test of Wald. Moreover, by crossing available information on several nodes of the network, a diagnosis of the detected anomalies is carried out. This method provided encouraging results during the analysis of several rains, on the sewer network of Seine-Saint-Denis County, France.

From reading numbers to seeing ratios: a benefit of icons for risk comprehension.

PubMed

Tubau, Elisabet; Rodríguez-Ferreiro, Javier; Barberia, Itxaso; Colomé, Àngels

2018-06-21

Promoting a better understanding of statistical data is becoming increasingly important for improving risk comprehension and decision-making. In this regard, previous studies on Bayesian problem solving have shown that iconic representations help infer frequencies in sets and subsets. Nevertheless, the mechanisms by which icons enhance performance remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that the benefit offered by icon arrays lies in a better alignment between presented and requested relationships, which should facilitate the comprehension of the requested ratio beyond the represented quantities. To this end, we analyzed individual risk estimates based on data presented either in standard verbal presentations (percentages and natural frequency formats) or as icon arrays. Compared to the other formats, icons led to estimates that were more accurate, and importantly, promoted the use of equivalent expressions for the requested probability. Furthermore, whereas the accuracy of the estimates based on verbal formats depended on their alignment with the text, all the estimates based on icons were equally accurate. Therefore, these results support the proposal that icons enhance the comprehension of the ratio and its mapping onto the requested probability and point to relational misalignment as potential interference for text-based Bayesian reasoning. The present findings also argue against an intrinsic difficulty with understanding single-event probabilities.

Role of neutrophil to lymphocyte and monocyte to lymphocyte ratios in the diagnosis of bacterial infection in patients with fever.

PubMed

Naess, Are; Nilssen, Siri Saervold; Mo, Reidun; Eide, Geir Egil; Sjursen, Haakon

2017-06-01

To study the role of the neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and monocyte:lymphocyte ratio (MLR) in discriminating between different patient groups hospitalized for fever due to infection and those without infection. For 299 patients admitted to hospital for fever with unknown cause, a number of characteristics including NLR and MLR were recorded. These characteristics were used in a multiple multinomial regression analysis to estimate the probability of a final diagnostic group of bacterial, viral, clinically confirmed, or no infection. Both NLR and MLR significantly predicted final diagnostic group. Being highly correlated, however, both variables could not be retained in the same model. Both variables also interacted significantly with duration of fever. Generally, higher values of NLR and MLR indicated larger probabilities for bacterial infection and low probabilities for viral infection. Patients with septicemia had significantly higher NLR compared to patients with other bacterial infections with fever for less than one week. White blood cell counts, neutrophil counts, and C-reactive proteins did not differ significantly between septicemia and the other bacterial infection groups. NLR is a more useful diagnostic tool to identify patients with septicemia than other more commonly used diagnostic blood tests. NLR and MLR may be useful in the diagnosis of bacterial infection among patients hospitalized for fever.

An improved PRoPHET routing protocol in delay tolerant network.

PubMed

Han, Seung Deok; Chung, Yun Won

2015-01-01

In delay tolerant network (DTN), an end-to-end path is not guaranteed and packets are delivered from a source node to a destination node via store-carry-forward based routing. In DTN, a source node or an intermediate node stores packets in buffer and carries them while it moves around. These packets are forwarded to other nodes based on predefined criteria and finally are delivered to a destination node via multiple hops. In this paper, we improve the dissemination speed of PRoPHET (probability routing protocol using history of encounters and transitivity) protocol by employing epidemic protocol for disseminating message m, if forwarding counter and hop counter values are smaller than or equal to the threshold values. The performance of the proposed protocol was analyzed from the aspect of delivery probability, average delay, and overhead ratio. Numerical results show that the proposed protocol can improve the delivery probability, average delay, and overhead ratio of PRoPHET protocol by appropriately selecting the threshold forwarding counter and threshold hop counter values.

The Probable Ages of Asteroid Families

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, A. W.

1993-01-01

There has been considerable debate recently over the ages of the Hirayama families, and in particular if some of the families are very oung(u) It is a straightforward task to estimate the characteristic time of a collision between a body of a given diameter, d_o, by another body of diameter greater of equal to d_1. What is less straightforward is to estimate the critical diameter ratio, d_1/d_o, above which catastrophic disruption occurs, from which one could infer probable ages of the Hirayama families, by knowing the diameter of the parent body, d_o. One can gain some insight into the probable value of d_1/d_o, and of the likely ages of existing families, from the plot below. I have computed the characteristic time between collisions in the asteroid belt of a size ratio greater of equal to d_1/d_o, for 4 sizes of target asteroids, d_o. The solid curves to the lower right are the characteristic times for a single object...

Probing the statistics of transport in the Hénon Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alus, O.; Fishman, S.; Meiss, J. D.

2016-09-01

The phase space of an area-preserving map typically contains infinitely many elliptic islands embedded in a chaotic sea. Orbits near the boundary of a chaotic region have been observed to stick for long times, strongly influencing their transport properties. The boundary is composed of invariant "boundary circles." We briefly report recent results of the distribution of rotation numbers of boundary circles for the Hénon quadratic map and show that the probability of occurrence of small integer entries of their continued fraction expansions is larger than would be expected for a number chosen at random. However, large integer entries occur with probabilities distributed proportionally to the random case. The probability distributions of ratios of fluxes through island chains is reported as well. These island chains are neighbours in the sense of the Meiss-Ott Markov-tree model. Two distinct universality families are found. The distributions of the ratio between the flux and orbital period are also presented. All of these results have implications for models of transport in mixed phase space.

Fixation probability on clique-based graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jeong-Ok; Yu, Unjong

2018-02-01

The fixation probability of a mutant in the evolutionary dynamics of Moran process is calculated by the Monte-Carlo method on a few families of clique-based graphs. It is shown that the complete suppression of fixation can be realized with the generalized clique-wheel graph in the limit of small wheel-clique ratio and infinite size. The family of clique-star is an amplifier, and clique-arms graph changes from amplifier to suppressor as the fitness of the mutant increases. We demonstrate that the overall structure of a graph can be more important to determine the fixation probability than the degree or the heat heterogeneity. The dependence of the fixation probability on the position of the first mutant is discussed.

Analysis of the Risks and Benefits of New Chemical Entities Approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Subsequently Withdrawn From the US Market.

PubMed

Patriarca, Peter A; Van Auken, R Michael; Kebschull, Scott A

2018-01-01

Benefit-risk evaluations of drugs have been conducted since the introduction of modern regulatory systems more than 50 years ago. Such judgments are typically made on the basis of qualitative or semiquantitative approaches, often without the aid of quantitative assessment methods, the latter having often been applied asymmetrically to place emphasis on benefit more so than harm. In an effort to preliminarily evaluate the utility of lives lost or saved, or quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) lost and gained as a means of quantitatively assessing the potential benefits and risks of a new chemical entity, we focused our attention on the unique scenario in which a drug was initially approved based on one set of data, but later withdrawn from the market based on a second set of data. In this analysis, a dimensionless risk to benefit ratio was calculated in each instance, based on the risk and benefit quantified in similar units. The results indicated that FDA decisions to approve the drug corresponded to risk to benefit ratios less than or equal to 0.136, and that decisions to withdraw the drug from the US market corresponded to risk to benefit ratios greater than or equal to 0.092. The probability of FDA approval was then estimated using logistic regression analysis. The results of this analysis indicated that there was a 50% probability of FDA approval if the risk to benefit ratio was 0.121, and that the probability approaches 100% for values much less than 0.121, and the probability approaches 0% for values much greater than 0.121. The large uncertainty in these estimates due to the small sample size and overlapping data may be addressed in the future by applying the methodology to other drugs.

Automatically-generated rectal dose constraints in intensity-modulated radiation therapy for prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, Taejin; Kim, Yong Nam; Kim, Soo Kon; Kang, Sei-Kwon; Cheong, Kwang-Ho; Park, Soah; Yoon, Jai-Woong; Han, Taejin; Kim, Haeyoung; Lee, Meyeon; Kim, Kyoung-Joo; Bae, Hoonsik; Suh, Tae-Suk

2015-06-01

The dose constraint during prostate intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) optimization should be patient-specific for better rectum sparing. The aims of this study are to suggest a novel method for automatically generating a patient-specific dose constraint by using an experience-based dose volume histogram (DVH) of the rectum and to evaluate the potential of such a dose constraint qualitatively. The normal tissue complication probabilities (NTCPs) of the rectum with respect to V %ratio in our study were divided into three groups, where V %ratio was defined as the percent ratio of the rectal volume overlapping the planning target volume (PTV) to the rectal volume: (1) the rectal NTCPs in the previous study (clinical data), (2) those statistically generated by using the standard normal distribution (calculated data), and (3) those generated by combining the calculated data and the clinical data (mixed data). In the calculated data, a random number whose mean value was on the fitted curve described in the clinical data and whose standard deviation was 1% was generated by using the `randn' function in the MATLAB program and was used. For each group, we validated whether the probability density function (PDF) of the rectal NTCP could be automatically generated with the density estimation method by using a Gaussian kernel. The results revealed that the rectal NTCP probability increased in proportion to V %ratio , that the predictive rectal NTCP was patient-specific, and that the starting point of IMRT optimization for the given patient might be different. The PDF of the rectal NTCP was obtained automatically for each group except that the smoothness of the probability distribution increased with increasing number of data and with increasing window width. We showed that during the prostate IMRT optimization, the patient-specific dose constraints could be automatically generated and that our method could reduce the IMRT optimization time as well as maintain the IMRT plan quality.

IMPACT OF CIGARETTE SMOKING ON RATES AND CLINICAL PROGNOSIS OF PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO

PubMed Central

Bonacci, Robert A.; Cruz-Hervert, Luis Pablo; García-García, Lourdes; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Ferreyra-Reyes, Leticia; Bobadilla-del-Valle, Miriam; Canizales-Quintero, Sergio; Ferreira-Guerrero, Elizabeth; Báez-Saldaña, Renata; Téllez-Vázquez, Norma; Mongua-Rodríguez, Norma; Montero-Campos, Rogelio; Delgado-Sánchez, Guadalupe; Martínez-Gamboa, Rosa Areli; Cano-Arellano, Bulmaro; Sifuentes-Osornio, José; de León, Alfredo Ponce

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine the relationship between cigarette smoking and incidence and mortality rates of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and treatment outcomes. Materials From 1995-2010, we analyzed data from 1062 patients with TB and from 2001-2004, 2951 contacts in Southern Mexico. Patients with acid-fast bacilli or Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum samples underwent epidemiological, clinical and mycobacteriological evaluation and received treatment by the local DOTS program. Results Consumers of 1-10 (LS) or 11 or more (HS) cigarettes per day incidence (1.75 and 11.79) and mortality (HS,17.74) smoker-nonsmoker rate ratios were significantly higher for smokers. Smoker population was more likely to experience unfavorable treatment outcomes (HS, adjusted OR 2.36) and retreatment (LS and HS, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.14 and 2.37). Contacts that smoked had a higher probability of developing active TB (HR 2.38) during follow up. Conclusions Results indicate the need of incorporating smoking prevention and cessation, especially among men, into international TB control strategies. PMID:22982014

Do spawn storage conditions influence the colonization capacity of a wheat-straw-based substrate by Agaricus subrufescens?

PubMed

Farnet, Anne-Marie; Qasemian, Leila; Peter-Valence, Frédérique; Ruaudel, Florence; Savoie, Jean-Michel; Roussos, Sevastianos; Gaime-Perraud, Isabelle; Ziarelli, Fabio; Ferré, Élisée

2014-01-01

Storage conditions of the spawn of edible fungi are of major importance to facilitate the production of mushrooms. Here, standard storage conditions at 10°C or 15°C were used and the potential of colonization of standard European compost by the tropical species Agaricus subrufescens was assessed during the spawn running phase. Two lignocellulolytic activities, laccase and CMC-cellulase, were enhanced after storage compared to control as well as substrate transformation, as described by the aromaticity ratio and a humification ratio calculated from NMR data. This result indicates that mycelium growth probably occurred during storage at 10 or 15°C, leading to a larger amount of biomass in the inoculum. Moreover, the microbial functional diversity of the substrate was favored, showing that the electivity of the substrate was maintained. Thus, these findings indicate that recommendations for the mushroom producers can be established for A. subrufescens cultivation under European standard conditions. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

An empirical likelihood ratio test robust to individual heterogeneity for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq.

PubMed

Xu, Maoqi; Chen, Liang

2018-01-01

The individual sample heterogeneity is one of the biggest obstacles in biomarker identification for complex diseases such as cancers. Current statistical models to identify differentially expressed genes between disease and control groups often overlook the substantial human sample heterogeneity. Meanwhile, traditional nonparametric tests lose detailed data information and sacrifice the analysis power, although they are distribution free and robust to heterogeneity. Here, we propose an empirical likelihood ratio test with a mean-variance relationship constraint (ELTSeq) for the differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). As a distribution-free nonparametric model, ELTSeq handles individual heterogeneity by estimating an empirical probability for each observation without making any assumption about read-count distribution. It also incorporates a constraint for the read-count overdispersion, which is widely observed in RNA-seq data. ELTSeq demonstrates a significant improvement over existing methods such as edgeR, DESeq, t-tests, Wilcoxon tests and the classic empirical likelihood-ratio test when handling heterogeneous groups. It will significantly advance the transcriptomics studies of cancers and other complex disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Physicochemical Characteristics and Slow Release Performances of Chlorpyrifos Encapsulated by Poly(butyl acrylate-co-styrene) with the Cross-Linker Ethylene Glycol Dimethacrylate.

PubMed

Wang, Yu; Gao, Zideng; Shen, Feng; Li, Yang; Zhang, Sainan; Ren, Xueqin; Hu, Shuwen

2015-06-03

Chlorpyrifos' application and delivery to the target substrate needs to be controlled to improve its use. Herein, poly(butyl acrylate-co-styrene) (poly(BA/St)) and poly(BA/St/ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA)) microcapsules loaded with chlorpyrifos as a slow release formulation were prepared by emulsion polymerization. The effects of structural characteristics on the chlorpyrifos microcapsule particle size, entrapment rate (ER), pesticide loading (PL), and release behaviors in ethyl alcohol were investigated. Fourier transform infrared and thermogravimetric analysis confirmed the successful entrapment of chlorpyrifos. The ER and PL varied with the BA/St monomer ratio, chlorpyrifos/monomer core-to-shell ratio, and EGDMA cross-linker content with consequence that suitable PL was estimated to be smaller than 3.09% and the highest ER was observed as 96.74%. The microcapsule particle size (88.36-101.8 nm) remained mostly constant. The extent of sustainable release decreased with increasing content of BA, St, or chlorpyrifos in the oil phase. Specifically, an adequate degree of cross-linking with EGMDA (0.5-2.5%) increased the extent of sustainable release considerably. However, higher levels of cross-linking with EGDMA (5-10%) reduced the extent of sustainable release. Chlorpyrifos release from specific microcapsules (monomer ratio 1:2 with 0.5% EGDMA or 5 g chlopyrifos) tended to be a diffusion-controlled process, while for others, the kinetics probably indicated the initial rupture release.

Concepts and system design of a space emergency re-entry vehicle.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, C. J.; Dickerson, S. L.

1971-01-01

Discussion of the spectrum of remedial concepts and realistic mission constraints. A vehicle design is presented which is offered as the 'best' solution among a number of alternative designs in terms of its cost effectiveness. The probability of the safe reentry and recovery of one to three stranded astronauts is 0.80. The vehicle is symmetrical and lenticular in shape, and exhibits a modest lift-to-drag ratio of 0.5, allowing it to reenter a two-skip trajectory with minimal gravity forces on the astronauts. Attitude control, voice and beacon communication, and impact attenuation are also provided. The vehicle could be delivered in a docked position on the Apollo Applications Program multiple docking adapter.

Digestive efficiency, free amino acid pools and quality of growth performance in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) affected by light regimes and vaccine types.

PubMed

Rungruangsak-Torrissen, Krisna; Sunde, Jan; Berg, Arne Erik; Nordgarden, Ulla; Fjelldal, Per Gunnar; Oppedal, Frode

2009-06-01

This study comprised the results of three different seawater trials using unique combination of techniques to study protease digestive efficiency and growth performance quality to illustrate the effects of light regimes and vaccine types in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Fish with higher growth had higher trypsin (T) and chymotrypsin (C) specific activities with higher T/C ratio or slope T/C ratio [calculated from the regression between trypsin (y) and chymotrypsin (x) specific activities] in the pyloric caeca. The T/C ratios indicated fish growth rates over a period of 1-2 months, while the slope T/C ratios indicated fish growth rates at sampling. Adaptation period for adjustment to the new environment of continuous light was 70 days, indicated by the differences in trypsin specific activities and the crossing of slope T/C ratio regressions following with the changes in growth rate directions between the control and the treated group. Vaccine types affected fish vertebral growth, and additional continuous light enhanced the impact of vaccines on fish growth during springtime, indicated by differences in slope T/C ratios. Continuous light stimulated fish growth during winter to spring, when the natural day length was short, without significantly changing white muscle and oocyte qualities in the fish of about 500 g, except for significantly increased white muscle RNA concentration. Continuous light also reduced fish growth rate later during summer, when the natural day length was long, by precedently decreasing the T/C ratio in late spring. Interestingly, plasma levels of free lysine related to tryptic digestion were correlated with trypsin specific activity levels. Continuous light caused higher levels of most free amino acids (FAA) involved in nitrogen metabolism, higher incorporation of essential FAA for protein synthesis, and higher protein turnover rate (free hydroxyproline levels) in both plasma and white muscle. However, continuous light did not affect higher protein content, intracellular buffering capacity and RNA levels in the white muscle of the fish of about 1 kg, probably due to limitation of FAA available for protein synthesis. It is therefore suggested that enhancing fish growth by continuous light stimulation should be accompanied by increasing availability or content of dietary protein (and probably minerals), which in turn would improve the quality of fish growth performance through increasing fillet protein concentration, strengthening vertebral growth, and delaying oocyte development.

Myelin content changes in probable Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment: Associations with age and severity of neuropsychiatric impairment.

PubMed

Kavroulakis, Eleftherios; Simos, Panagiotis G; Kalaitzakis, Georgios; Maris, Thomas G; Karageorgou, Dimitra; Zaganas, Ioannis; Panagiotakis, Simeon; Basta, Maria; Vgontzas, Alexandros; Papadaki, Efrosini

2018-05-01

Existing indices of white matter integrity such as fractional anisotropy and magnetization transfer ratio may not provide optimal specificity to myelin content. In contrast, myelin water fraction (MWF) derived from the multiecho T 2 relaxation time technique may serve as a more direct measure of myelin content. The goal of the present study was to identify markers of regional demyelination in patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in relation to age and severity of neuropsychiatric impairment. The sample included patients diagnosed with probable AD (n = 25) or MCI (n = 43), and cognitively intact elderly controls (n = 33). Long T 2 , short T 2 , and MWF values were measured with a 1.5T scanner in periventricular and deep normal-appearing white matter (NAWM), serving as indices of intra/extracellular water content and myelin content. A comprehensive neuropsychological and neuropsychiatric assessment was administered to all participants. AD patients displayed higher age-adjusted long and short T 2 values and reduced MWF values in left temporal/parietal and bilateral periventricular NAWM than controls and MCI patients (P < 0.004; one-way analysis of covariance [ANCOVA] tests). Short T 2 /MWF values in temporal, frontal, and periventricular NAWM of controls and/or MCI patients were significantly associated with episodic and semantic memory performance and depressive symptomatology (P < 0.004; partial correlation indices). The impact of age on memory performance was significantly (P < 0.01; mediated linear regression analyses) mediated by age-related changes in short T 2 and MWF values in these regions. Age-related demyelination is associated with memory impairment (especially in prodromal dementia states) and symptoms of depression in an anatomically specific manner. 1 Technical Efficacy: Stage 3 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018;47:1359-1372. © 2017 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Triple-wavelength lidar observations of the linear depolarization ratio of dried marine particles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haarig, Moritz; Ansmann, Albert; Baars, Holger; Engelmann, Ronny; Althausen, Dietrich; Bohlmann, Stephanie; Gasteiger, Josef; Farrell, David

2018-04-01

For aerosol typing with lidar, sea salt particles are usually assumed to be spherical with a consequently low depolarization ratio. Evidence of dried marine particles at the top of the humid marine aerosol layer with a depolarization ratio up to 0.1 has been found at predominately maritime locations on Barbados and in the Southern Atlantic. The depolarization ratio for these probably cubic sea salt particles has been measured at three wavelengths (355, 532 and 1064 nm) simultaneously for the first time and compared to model simulations.

Probable interaction between an oral vitamin K antagonist and turmeric (Curcuma longa).

PubMed

Daveluy, Amélie; Géniaux, Hélène; Thibaud, Lucile; Mallaret, Michel; Miremont-Salamé, Ghada; Haramburu, Françoise

2014-01-01

We report a probable interaction between a vitamin K antagonist, fluindione, and the herbal medicine turmeric that resulted in the elevation of the international normalized ratio (INR). The case presented here underlines the importance of considering potential exposure to herbal medications when assessing adverse effects. © 2014 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

Review of calcium carbonate polymorph precipitation in spring systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Brian

2017-05-01

Many spring deposits throughout the world are characterized by spectacular deposits of calcium carbonate that are formed of various combinations of aragonite and calcite, and in very rare cases vaterite. The factors that control the precipitation of the aragonite and calcite have been the subject of considerable debate that has been based on natural precipitates and information gained from numerous laboratory experiments. Synthesis of this information indicates that there is probably no single universal factor that controls calcite and aragonite precipitation in all springs. Instead, the reason for aragonite as opposed to calcite precipitation should be ascertained by considering the following ordered series of possibilities for each system. First, aragonite, commonly with calcite as a co-precipitate, will form from spring water that has a high CO2 content and rapid CO2 degassing, irrespective of the Mg:Ca ratio and scale of precipitation. Second, aragonite can be precipitated from waters that have low levels of CO2 degassing provided that the Mg:Ca ratio is high enough to inhibit calcite precipitation. Third, the presence of biofilms may lead to the simultaneous precipitation of aragonite and calcite (irrespective of CO2 degassing or Mg:Ca ratio) either within the different microdomains that develop in the biofilm or because of diurnal changes in various geochemical parameters associated with the biofilm. Although the precipitation of calcite and aragonite has commonly been linked directly to water temperature, there is no clear evidence for this proposition. It is possible, however, that temperature may be influencing another parameter that plays a more direct role in the precipitation of these CaCO3 polymorphs. Despite the advances that have been made, the factors that ultimately control calcite and aragonite are still open to debate because this long-standing problem has still not been fully resolved.

Antidepressant effect detected on proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy in drug-naïve female patients with first-episode major depression.

PubMed

Kaymak, Semra Ulusoy; Demir, Başaran; Oğuz, Kader Karli; Sentürk, Senem; Uluğ, Berna

2009-06-01

Recent neuroimaging studies support functional and structural alterations in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), particularly on the left side in patients with major depressive disorders (MDD). The aim of the present study was to examine the biochemical characteristics of left DLPFC as measured on proton ((1)H) magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) in patients with drug-naïve first-episode MDD and a healthy control group. A second aim was to assess the effect of antidepressant treatment on the metabolites of DLPFC. Short-echo single-voxel (1)H-MRS was done for the left DLPFC in 17 female drug-free MDD patients (mean age +/- SD, 30.9 +/- 6.9 years) and 13 matched control subjects (mean age +/- SD, 29.1 +/- 6.2 years) and was repeated at 8 weeks following antidepressant treatment. Comparison of baseline values indicated that there were no significant differences in any of the metabolite ratios (N-acetyl aspartate/creatine [NAA/Cr], myoinositol [Ino]/Cr, and choline [Cho]/Cr) between patients and controls. Significant differences were detected between pre- and post-treatment Ino/Cr ratios (0.67 +/- 0.13, 0.58 +/- 0.22, P = 0.032, respectively), although there was no difference in NAA/Cr and Cho/Cr ratios. Although no significant metabolic alterations exist in female patients with drug-naïve first-episode MDD as evaluated on (1)H-MRS, an increase in Ino/Cr was observed following 8-week antidepressant treatment. These findings give rise to the possibility that non-neuronal cells, particularly glial cells that are probably damaged, play a role in the action of antidepressant treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of external cephalic version for term breech presentation

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background External cephalic version (ECV) is recommended by the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists to convert a breech fetus to vertex position and reduce the need for cesarean delivery. The goal of this study was to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, from society's perspective, of ECV compared to scheduled cesarean for term breech presentation. Methods A computer-based decision model (TreeAge Pro 2008, Tree Age Software, Inc.) was developed for a hypothetical base case parturient presenting with a term singleton breech fetus with no contraindications for vaginal delivery. The model incorporated actual hospital costs (e.g., $8,023 for cesarean and $5,581 for vaginal delivery), utilities to quantify health-related quality of life, and probabilities based on analysis of published literature of successful ECV trial, spontaneous reversion, mode of delivery, and need for unanticipated emergency cesarean delivery. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in dollars per quality-adjusted year of life gained. A threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) was used to determine cost-effectiveness. Results The incremental cost-effectiveness of ECV, assuming a baseline 58% success rate, equaled $7,900/QALY. If the estimated probability of successful ECV is less than 32%, then ECV costs more to society and has poorer QALYs for the patient. However, as the probability of successful ECV was between 32% and 63%, ECV cost more than cesarean delivery but with greater associated QALY such that the cost-effectiveness ratio was less than $50,000/QALY. If the probability of successful ECV was greater than 63%, the computer modeling indicated that a trial of ECV is less costly and with better QALYs than a scheduled cesarean. The cost-effectiveness of a trial of ECV is most sensitive to its probability of success, and not to the probabilities of a cesarean after ECV, spontaneous reversion to breech, successful second ECV trial, or adverse outcome from emergency cesarean. Conclusions From society's perspective, ECV trial is cost-effective when compared to a scheduled cesarean for breech presentation provided the probability of successful ECV is > 32%. Improved algorithms are needed to more precisely estimate the likelihood that a patient will have a successful ECV. PMID:20092630

Landscape types and pH control organic matter mediated mobilization of Al, Fe, U and La in boreal catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Köhler, Stephan J.; Lidman, Fredrik; Laudon, Hjalmar

2014-06-01

In this study we present data from a seven-year time series from 15 nested streams within a 68 km2 catchment, covering a pH gradient of almost three units. We demonstrate that the two landscape types, forest and wetlands, control the relative mobilization of Al and Fe in this boreal landscape. The La/U ratio is almost constant across the whole catchment despite large variations in pH, Al/Fe and TOC, whereas U and La mobilization increases with increasing contribution of deeper soils and groundwater further downstream. High Al/TOC ratios in the forested catchments suggest that Al originates from the underlying mineral soils, and low Al/TOC ratios derive from wetlands where Al is retained. We observe a competition effect on the binding to TOC between Al and La and also that the relationship between TOC, Al and La changes from the smaller (0.05-2 km2) catchments to larger (3-68 km2) downstream locations. As pH increase downstream, Al and Fe are gradually removed from the aqueous phase by precipitation of particulate gibbsite-like phases and ferrihydrite. This selective removal of Al and Fe from TOC binding sites results in higher La, and U concentrations downstream. Observed element patterns (U, La) and the range of upper continental crust normalized (La/Nd)UCC and (La/Yb)UCC in the near stream, riparian zone were very similar to the observed ratios across the whole catchment. The rising (La/Nd)UCC over (La/Yb)UCC may be due to a selective removal of REE binding to ferrihydrate in the riparian soil, the result of two distinctly different end-members but most probably not due to the in-stream precipitation of ferrihydrate or gibbsite-like phases.

The use of legal, illegal and roll-your-own cigarettes to increasing tobacco excise taxes and comprehensive tobacco control policies: findings from the ITC Uruguay Survey.

PubMed

Curti, Dardo; Shang, Ce; Ridgeway, William; Chaloupka, Frank J; Fong, Geoffrey T

2015-07-01

Little research has been done to examine whether smokers switch to illegal or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in response to a change in their relative price. This paper explores how relative prices between three cigarette forms (manufactured legal, manufactured illegal and RYO cigarettes) are associated with the choice of one form over another after controlling for covariates, including sociodemographic characteristics, smokers' exposure to antismoking messaging, health warning labels and tobacco marketing. Generalised estimating equations were employed to analyse the association between the price ratio of two different cigarette forms and the usage of one form over the other. A 10% increase in the relative price ratio of legal to RYO cigarettes is associated with a 4.6% increase in the probability of consuming RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). In addition, more exposure to antismoking messaging is associated with a lower odds of choosing RYO cigarettes over manufactured legal cigarettes (p≤0.05). Non-significant associations exist between the manufactured illegal to legal cigarette price ratios and choosing manufactured illegal cigarettes, suggesting that smokers do not switch to manufactured illegal cigarettes as prices of legal ones increase. However, these non-significant findings may be due to lack of variation in the price ratio measures. To improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policymakers need to narrow price variability in the tobacco market. Moreover, increasing antismoking messaging reduces tax avoidance in the form of switching to cheaper RYO cigarettes in Uruguay. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The Use of Legal, Illegal, and Roll-you-own Cigarettes to Increasing Tobacco Excise Taxes and Comprehensive Tobacco Control Policies-Findings from the ITC Uruguay Survey

PubMed Central

Curti, Dardo; Shang, Ce; Ridgeway, William; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Fong, Geoffrey T

2015-01-01

Background Little research has been done to examine whether smokers switch to illegal or roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes in response to a change in their relative price. Objective This paper explores how relative prices between three cigarette forms (manufactured legal, manufactured illegal, and RYO cigarettes) are associated with the choice of one form over another after controlling for covariates, including sociodemographic characteristics, smokers’ exposure to anti-smoking messaging, health warning labels, and tobacco marketing. Methods Generalized estimating equations (GEE) were employed to analyse the association between the price ratio of two different cigarette forms and the usage of one form over the other. Findings A 10% increase in the relative price ratio of legal to RYO cigarettes is associated with 4.6% increase in the probability of consuming RYO over manufactured legal cigarettes (P≤0.05). In addition, more exposure to anti-smoking messaging is associated with lower odds of choosing RYO over manufactured legal cigarettes (P≤0.05). Non-significant associations exist between the manufactured illegal to legal cigarette price ratios and choosing manufactured illegal cigarettes, suggesting that smokers do not switch to manufactured illegal cigarettes as prices of legal ones increase. However, these non-significant findings may be due to lack of variation in the price ratio measures. In order to improve the effectiveness of increased taxes and prices in reducing smoking, policy makers need to narrow price variability in the tobacco market. Moreover, increasing anti-smoking messaging reduces tax avoidance in the form of switching to cheaper RYO cigarettes in Uruguay. PMID:25740084

Cost-effectiveness of medical nutrition therapy and therapeutically designed meals for older adults with cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Troyer, Jennifer L; McAuley, William J; McCutcheon, Megan E

2010-12-01

Many older adults experience hyperlipidemia and hypertension, but there is little information about whether medical nutrition therapy (MNT) or therapeutic meals have independent or joint beneficial effects on older adults with these diagnoses. To assess the cost-effectiveness of MNT and therapeutic meals for older adults with hyperlipidemia and/or hypertension. A 1-year prospective four-arm controlled randomized community-based clinical trial. Participants were people ages 60 years or older residing in community settings who were medically diagnosed with either hypertension or hyperlipidemia. They were recruited through a number of venues beginning in May 2003. The 321 eligible individuals were assigned to one of four arms: (a) a literature control group, (b) a therapeutic meal group that received seven diagnosis-appropriate therapeutic meals a week, (c) an MNT group, and (d) an MNT-plus-therapeutic meal group. The outcome measure was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs included both intervention and medical costs. Estimations of separate models of costs and QALYs facilitated the construction of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Net benefit analysis produced the probability that each intervention was cost-effective given different values for society's willingness to pay for a QALY. Therapeutic meals are cost-effective. Using the net benefit approach and a willingness to pay of $109,000 per QALY, the probability that the therapeutic meal delivery program is cost-effective is 95% and for MNT the probability is 90%. However, the combination of MNT and therapeutic meals did not have an independent significant effect on QALYs. Results inform the debate about extending Medicare funding for MNT to individuals with hypertension and hyperlipidemia. Future research should include more individuals who are not currently receiving medications for these diseases. Copyright © 2010 American Dietetic Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Advanced Health Management System for the Space Shuttle Main Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, Matt; Stephens, John

2004-01-01

Boeing-Canoga Park (BCP) and NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA-MSFC) are developing an Advanced Health Management System (AHMS) for use on the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) that will improve Shuttle safety by reducing the probability of catastrophic engine failures during the powered ascent phase of a Shuttle mission. This is a phased approach that consists of an upgrade to the current Space Shuttle Main Engine Controller (SSMEC) to add turbomachinery synchronous vibration protection and addition of a separate Health Management Computer (HMC) that will utilize advanced algorithms to detect and mitigate predefined engine anomalies. The purpose of the Shuttle AHMS is twofold; one is to increase the probability of successfully placing the Orbiter into the intended orbit, and the other is to increase the probability of being able to safely execute an abort of a Space Transportation System (STS) launch. Both objectives are achieved by increasing the useful work envelope of a Space Shuttle Main Engine after it has developed anomalous performance during launch and the ascent phase of the mission. This increase in work envelope will be the result of two new anomaly mitigation options, in addition to existing engine shutdown, that were previously unavailable. The added anomaly mitigation options include engine throttle-down and performance correction (adjustment of engine oxidizer to fuel ratio), as well as enhanced sensor disqualification capability. The HMC is intended to provide the computing power necessary to diagnose selected anomalous engine behaviors and for making recommendations to the engine controller for anomaly mitigation. Independent auditors have assessed the reduction in Shuttle ascent risk to be on the order of 40% with the combined system and a three times improvement in mission success.

Maternal smoking and offspring inattention and hyperactivity: results from a cross-national European survey

PubMed Central

Kovess, Viviane; Keyes, Katherine M.; Hamilton, Ava; Pez, Ondine; Bitfoi, Adina; Koç, Ceren; Goelitz, Dietmar; Kuijpers, Rowella; Lesinskiene, Sigita; Mihova, Zlatka; Otten, Roy; Fermanian, C.; Pilowsky, Daniel J.; Susser, Ezra

2015-01-01

In utero exposure to tobacco smoke is associated with adverse neonatal outcomes; the association with later childhood mental health outcomes remains controversial. We used a strategy involving comparison of maternal and paternal smoking reports in a sample pooling data from six diverse European countries. Data were drawn from mother (N = 4,517) and teacher (N = 4,611) reported attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms in school children aged 6–11 in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands, surveyed in 2010. Mothers report on self and husband’s smoking patterns during the pregnancy period. Logistic regression used with control covariates including demographics, maternal distress, live births, region, and post-pregnancy smoking. In unadjusted models, maternal prenatal smoking was associated with probable ADHD based on mother [Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.82, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 1.45–2.29], teacher (OR = 1.69, 95 % CI 1.33–2.14) and mother plus teacher (OR = 1.49, 95 % CI 1.03–2.17) report. Paternal prenatal smoking was similarly associated with probable ADHD in unadjusted models. When controlled for relevant confounders, maternal prenatal smoking remained a risk factor for offspring probable ADHD based on mother report (OR = 1.44, 95 % CI 1.06–1.96), whereas the effect of paternal prenatal smoking diminished (e.g., mother report: OR = 1.17, 95 % CI 0.92–1.49). Drawing on data from a diverse set of countries across Europe, we document that the association between maternal smoking and offspring ADHD is stronger than that of paternal smoking during the pregnancy period and offspring ADHD. To the extent that confounding is shared between parents, these results reflect a potential intrauterine influence of smoking on ADHD in children. PMID:25413602

Migraine and the risk of post-traumatic stress disorder among a cohort of pregnant women.

PubMed

Friedman, Lauren E; Aponte, Christina; Perez Hernandez, Rigoberto; Velez, Juan Carlos; Gelaye, Bizu; Sánchez, Sixto E; Williams, Michelle A; Peterlin, B Lee

2017-12-01

Individually both migraine and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) prevalence estimates are higher among women. However, there is limited data on the association of migraine and PTSD in women during pregnancy. We examined the association between migraine and PTSD among women attending prenatal clinics in Peru. Migraine was characterized using the International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD)-III beta criteria. PTSD was assessed using the PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version (PCL-C). Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) after adjusting for confounders. Of the 2922 pregnant women included, 33.5% fulfilled criteria for any migraine (migraine 12.5%; probable migraine 21.0%) and 37.4% fulfilled PTSD criteria. Even when controlling for depression, women with any migraine had almost a 2-fold increased odds of PTSD (OR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.64-2.37) as compared to women without migraine. Specifically, women with migraine alone (i.e. excluding probable migraine) had a 2.85-fold increased odds of PTSD (95% CI: 2.18-3.74), and women with probable migraine alone had a 1.61-fold increased odds of PTSD (95% CI: 1.30-1.99) as compared to those without migraine, even after controlling for depression. In those women with both migraine and comorbid depression, the odds of PTSD in all migraine categories were even further increased as compared to those women without migraine. In a cohort of pregnant women, irrespective of the presence or absence of depression, the odds of PTSD is increased in those with migraine. Our findings suggest the importance of screening for PTSD, specifically in pregnant women with migraine.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of school-based suicide prevention programmes.

PubMed

Ahern, Susan; Burke, Lee-Ann; McElroy, Brendan; Corcoran, Paul; McMahon, Elaine M; Keeley, Helen; Carli, Vladimir; Wasserman, Camilla; Hoven, Christina W; Sarchiapone, Marco; Apter, Alan; Balazs, Judit; Banzer, Raphaela; Bobes, Julio; Brunner, Romuald; Cosman, Doina; Haring, Christian; Kaess, Michael; Kahn, Jean-Pierre; Kereszteny, Agnes; Postuvan, Vita; Sáiz, Pilar A; Varnik, Peeter; Wasserman, Danuta

2018-02-14

Suicide is one of the leading causes of death among young people globally. In light of emerging evidence supporting the effectiveness of school-based suicide prevention programmes, an analysis of cost-effectiveness is required. We aimed to conduct a full cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of the large pan-European school-based RCT, Saving and Empowering Young Lives in Europe (SEYLE). The health outcomes of interest were suicide attempt and severe suicidal ideation with suicide plans. Adopting a payer's perspective, three suicide prevention interventions were modelled with a Control over a 12-month time period. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) indicate that the Youth Aware of Mental Health (YAM) programme has the lowest incremental cost per 1% point reduction in incident for both outcomes and per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained versus the Control. The ICERs reported for YAM were €34.83 and €45.42 per 1% point reduction in incident suicide attempt and incident severe suicidal ideation, respectively, and a cost per QALY gained of €47,017 for suicide attempt and €48,216 for severe suicidal ideation. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves were used to examine uncertainty in the QALY analysis, where cost-effectiveness probabilities were calculated using net monetary benefit analysis incorporating a two-stage bootstrapping technique. For suicide attempt, the probability that YAM was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of €47,000 was 39%. For severe suicidal ideation, the probability that YAM was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of €48,000 was 43%. This CEA supports YAM as the most cost-effective of the SEYLE interventions in preventing both a suicide attempt and severe suicidal ideation.Trial registration number DRKS00000214.

Carbonaceous PM(2.5) and secondary organic aerosol across the Veneto region (NE Italy).

PubMed

Khan, Md Badiuzzaman; Masiol, Mauro; Formenton, Gianni; Di Gilio, Alessia; de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Agostinelli, Claudio; Pavoni, Bruno

2016-01-15

Organic and elemental carbon (OC-EC) were measured in 360 PM2.5 samples collected from April 2012 to February 2013 at six provinces in the Veneto region, to determine the factors affecting the carbonaceous aerosol variations. The 60 daily samples have been collected simultaneously in all sites during 10 consecutive days for 6 months (April, June, August, October, December and February). OC ranged from 0.98 to 22.34 μg/m(3), while the mean value was 5.5 μg/m(3), contributing 79% of total carbon. EC concentrations fluctuated from 0.19 to 11.90 μg/m(3) with an annual mean value of 1.31 μg/m(3) (19% of the total carbon). The monthly OC concentration gradually increased from April to December. The EC did not vary in accordance with OC. However the highest values for both parameters were recorded in the cold period. The mean OC/EC ratio is 4.54, which is higher than the values observed in most of the other European cities. The secondary organic carbon (SOC) contributed for 69% of the total OC and this was confirmed by both the approaches OC/EC minimum ratio and regression. The results show that OC, EC and SOC exhibited higher concentration during winter months in all measurement sites, suggesting that the stable atmosphere and lower mixing play important role for the accumulation of air pollutant and hasten the condensation or adsorption of volatile organic compounds over the Veneto region. Significant meteorological factors controlling OC and EC were investigated by fitting linear models and using a robust procedure based on weighted likelihood, suggesting that low wind speed and temperature favour accumulation of emissions from local sources. Conditional probability function and conditional bivariate probability function plots indicate that both biomass burning and vehicular traffic are probably the main local sources for carbonaceous particulate matter emissions in two selected cities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Migraine and risk of stroke: a national population-based twin study.

PubMed

Lantz, Maria; Sieurin, Johanna; Sjölander, Arvid; Waldenlind, Elisabet; Sjöstrand, Christina; Wirdefeldt, Karin

2017-10-01

Numerous studies have indicated an increased risk for stroke in patients with migraine, especially migraine with aura; however, many studies used self-reported migraine and only a few controlled for familial factors. We aimed to investigate migraine as a risk factor for stroke in a Swedish population-based twin cohort, and whether familial factors contribute to an increased risk. The study population included twins without prior cerebrovascular disease who answered a headache questionnaire during 1998 and 2002 for twins born 1935-58 and during 2005-06 for twins born between 1959 and 1985. Migraine with and without aura and probable migraine was defined by an algorithm mapping on to clinical diagnostic criteria according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders. Stroke diagnoses were obtained from the national patient and cause of death registers. Twins were followed longitudinally, by linkage of national registers, from date of interview until date of first stroke, death, or end of study on 31 Dec 2014. In total, 8635 twins had any migraineous headache, whereof 3553 had migraine with aura and 5082 had non-aura migraineous headache (including migraine without aura and probable migraine), and 44 769 twins had no migraine. During a mean follow-up time of 11.9 years we observed 1297 incident cases of stroke. The Cox proportional hazards model with attained age as underlying time scale was used to estimate hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for stroke including ischaemic and haemorrhagic subtypes related to migraine with aura, non-aura migraineous headache, and any migraineous headache. Analyses were adjusted for gender and cardiovascular risk factors. Where appropriate; within-pair analyses were performed to control for confounding by familial factors. The age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.00-1.62), P = 0.05, and 1.07 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.26), P = 0.39 related to any migraineous headache. Multivariable adjusted analyses showed similar results. When stratified by gender and attained age of ≤50 or >50 years, the estimated hazard ratio for stroke was higher in twins younger than 50 years and in females; however, non-significant. In the within-pair analysis, the hazard ratio for stroke related to migraine with aura was attenuated [hazard ratio 1.09 (95% confidence interval 0.81-1.46), P = 0.59]. In conclusion, we observed no increased stroke risk related to migraine overall but there was a modestly increased risk for stroke related to migraine with aura, and within-pair analyses suggested that familial factors might contribute to this association. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Nerolidol effects on mitochondrial and cellular energetics.

PubMed

Ferreira, Fernanda M; Palmeira, Carlos M; Oliveira, Maria M; Santos, Dario; Simões, Anabela M; Rocha, Sílvia M; Coimbra, Manuel A; Peixoto, Francisco

2012-03-01

In the present work, we evaluated the potential toxic effects of nerolidol, a sesquiterpenoid common in plants essential oils, both on mitochondrial and cellular energetics. Samples of enriched natural extracts of nerolidol (a racemic mixture of cis and trans isomers) were tested on rat liver mitochondria and a decrease in phosphorylative system was observed but not in the mitochondrial respiratory chain activity, which reflects a direct effect on F1-ATPase. Hence, respiratory control ratio was also decreased. Cellular ATP/ADP levels were significantly decreased in a concentration-dependent manner, possibly due to the direct effect of nerolidol on F(0)F(1)-ATPsynthase. Nerolidol stimulates respiratory activity probably due to an unspecific effect, since it does not show any protonophoric effect. Furthermore, we observed that mitochondrial permeability transition was delayed in the presence of nerolidol, possibly due to its antioxidant activity and because this compound decreases mitochondrial transmembrane electric potential. Our results also show that, in human hepatocellular liver carcinoma cell line (HepG2), nerolidol both induces cell death and arrests cell growth, probably related with the observed lower bioenergetic efficiency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Heavy-Duty Vehicles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, Eric; Konan, Arnaud; Duran, Adam

2017-03-28

Accurate vehicle parameters are valuable for design, modeling, and reporting. Estimating vehicle parameters can be a very time-consuming process requiring tightly-controlled experimentation. This work describes a method to estimate vehicle parameters such as mass, coefficient of drag/frontal area, and rolling resistance using data logged during standard vehicle operation. The method uses Monte Carlo to generate parameter sets which is fed to a variant of the road load equation. Modeled road load is then compared to measured load to evaluate the probability of the parameter set. Acceptance of a proposed parameter set is determined using the probability ratio to the currentmore » state, so that the chain history will give a distribution of parameter sets. Compared to a single value, a distribution of possible values provides information on the quality of estimates and the range of possible parameter values. The method is demonstrated by estimating dynamometer parameters. Results confirm the method's ability to estimate reasonable parameter sets, and indicates an opportunity to increase the certainty of estimates through careful selection or generation of the test drive cycle.« less

Effectiveness of landslide risk mitigation strategies in Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chun-Yi; Chen, Su-Chin

2015-04-01

The purpose of this study was to establish landslide risk analysis procedures that can be used to analyze landslide risk in a watershed scale and to assess the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies. Landslide risk analysis encompassed the landslide hazard, the vulnerability of elements at risk, and community resilience capacity. First, landslide spatial probability, landslide temporal probability, and landslide area probability were joined to estimate the probability of landslides with an area exceeding a certain threshold in each slope unit. Second, the expected property and life losses were both analyzed in vulnerability analysis. Different elements at risk were assigned corresponding values, and then used in conjunction with the vulnerabilities to carry out quantitative analysis. Third, the resilience capacity of different communities was calculated based on the scores obtained through community checklists and the weights of individual items, including "the participation experience of disaster prevention drill," "real-time monitoring mechanism of community," "autonomous monitoring of residents," and "disaster prevention volunteer." Finally, the landslide probabilities, vulnerability analysis results, and resilience capacities were combined to assess landslide risk in Shihmen Watershed. In addition, the risks before and after the implementation of non-structural disaster prevention strategies were compared to determine the benefits of various strategies, and subsequently benefit-cost analysis was performed. Communities with high benefit-cost ratios included Hualing, Yisheng, Siouluan, and Gaoyi. The watershed as a whole had a benefit-cost ratio far greater than 1, indicating that the effectiveness of strategies was greater than the investment cost, and these measures were thus cost-effective. The results of factor sensitivity analysis revealed that changes in vulnerability and mortality rates would increase the uncertainty of risk, and that raise in annual interest rates or reduction in life cycle of measures would decrease the benefit-cost ratio. However, with regard to effectiveness analysis, these changes did not reverse the cost-effective inference.

Alterations in Vasoreactivity of Femoral Artery Induced by Hindlimb Unweighting are Related to the Changes of Contractile Protein in Rats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, Jin; Ren, Xinling; Meng, Qinjun; Zhang, Lifan; Purdy, Ralph E.

2005-01-01

Responses of endothelium removed femoral arterial rings to vasoactive compounds were examined in vitro, and the expression of Myosin and Actin of femoral artery were observed by Western Blotting and Immunohistochemistry in hndlimb unweighting rats and control rats. The results showed that contractile responses of femoral arterial rings evoked by Phenylephrine, Endothelin-1, Vasopressin, KCl, Ca(2+) and Ca(2+) ionophore A23187 were decreased in hindlimb unweighting rats as compared with that of controls. But vasoddatory responses induced by SNPand cGMP were not different between groups. No significant differences have been found in expressions of Calponin, Myosin, Actin, and the ratio of MHC SM1/SM2 between the two groups, but expression of alpha-SM-Actin decreased in hindlimb unweighting rats. The data indicated that the diminished contractile responsiveness probably result from altered contractile apparatus, especially the contractile proteins.

[A method for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria in the municipalities of Colombia].

PubMed

Velásquez, Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez

2010-03-01

To develop a methodology for forecasting the seasonal dynamic of malaria outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia. Epidemiologic ranges were defined by multiples of 50 cases for the six municipalities with the highest incidence, 25 cases for the municipalities that ranked 10th and 11th by incidence, 10 for the municipality that ranked 193rd, and 5 for the municipality that ranked 402nd. The specific probability values for each epidemiologic range appearing in each municipality, as well as the S/k value--the ratio between entropy (S) and the Boltzmann constant (k)--were calculated for each three-week set, along with the differences in this ratio divided by the consecutive sets of weeks. These mathematical ratios were used to determine the values for forecasting the case dynamic, which were compared with the actual epidemiologic data from the period 2003-2007. The probability of the epidemiologic ranges appearing ranged from 0.019 and 1.00, while the differences in the S/k ratio between the sets of consecutive weeks ranged from 0.23 to 0.29. Three ratios were established to determine whether the dynamic corresponded to an outbreak. These ratios were corroborated with real epidemiological data from 810 Colombian municipalities. This methodology allows us to forecast the malaria case dynamic and outbreaks in the municipalities of Colombia and can be used in planning interventions and public health policies.

Symmetry and the Golden Ratio in the Analysis of a Regular Pentagon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sparavigna, Amelia Carolina; Baldi, Mauro Maria

2017-01-01

The regular pentagon had a symbolic meaning in the Pythagorean and Platonic philosophies and a subsequent important role in Western thought, appearing also in arts and architecture. A property of regular pentagons, which was probably discovered by the Pythagoreans, is that the ratio between the diagonal and the side of these pentagons is equal to…

Eczema in early childhood, sociodemographic factors and lifestyle habits are associated with food allergy: a nested case-control study.

PubMed

Ben-Shoshan, Moshe; Soller, Lianne; Harrington, Daniel W; Knoll, Megan; La Vieille, Sebastian; Fragapane, Joseph; Joseph, Lawrence; St Pierre, Yvan; Wilson, Kathie; Elliott, Susan J; Clarke, Ann E

2015-01-01

Studies suggest an increase in food allergy prevalence over the last decade, but the contributing factors remain unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the most common food allergies and atopic history, sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle habits. We conducted a case-control study nested within the SPAACE study (Surveying Prevalence of Food Allergy in All Canadian Environments) – a cross-Canada, random telephone survey. Cases consisted of individuals with probable food allergy (self-report of convincing symptoms and/or physician diagnosis) to milk, egg, peanut, tree nut, shellfish, fish, wheat, soy, or sesame. Controls consisted of nonallergic individuals, matched for age. Cases and controls were queried on personal and family history of atopy, sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle habits. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between atopy, sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle habits with probable food allergy. Between September 2010 and September 2011, 480 cases and 4,950 controls completed the questionnaire. For all 9 allergens, factors associated with a higher risk of probable allergy were as follows: (1) personal history of eczema (in the first 2 years of life), asthma or hay fever (odds ratio, OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.6-3.5; OR 2.8, 95% CI 2.2-3.6, and OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.8-3.0, respectively), (2) maternal, paternal or sibling's food allergy (OR 3.7, 95% CI 2.5-5.6; OR 3.0, 95% CI 1.8-5.1, and OR 3.1, 95% CI 2.2-4.2), (3) high household income (top 20%; OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2-2.0). Males and older individuals were less likely to have food allergy (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.6-0.9, and OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00). Eczema in the first 2 years of life was the strongest risk factor for egg, peanut, tree nut and fish allergy. This is the largest population-based nested case-control study exploring factors associated with food allergies. Our results reveal that, in addition to previously reported factors, eczema in the first 2 years of life is consistently associated with food allergies. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Bacteriological profile of neonatal sepsis in a secondary care hospital in rural Tamil Nadu, Southern India.

PubMed

Pavan Kumar, Doniparthi Venkata; Mohan, Jesinth; Rakesh, P S; Prasad, Jasmine; Joseph, Lenikumar

2017-01-01

Neonatal sepsis is a leading cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in the world. The objective of the current study was to detect the common causative microorganisms of neonatal sepsis and their antimicrobial resistance patterns in a rural secondary hospital in Tamil Nadu, India. Neonates (0-28 days) admitted to this newborn care unit from October 2013 to September 2015, with a diagnosis of probable sepsis were studied. All the enrolled babies had blood cultures taken and were followed up till final outcome, which was discharge or death, irrespective of culture result. Univariate analysis was performed for factors associated with culture positivity, generating odds ratios, and confidence intervals. Among the 107 babies with a diagnosis of probable sepsis, 28 (26.2%) had shown bacteria in culture. The majority (94.4%) were of early-onset sepsis. The predominant organisms were Staphylococcus aureus (10/28) and Klebsiella (6/28). 100% of Gram-negative bacilli and 90% of Staphylococcus were resistant to Ampicillin. Gentamicin resistance among Gram-negative bacilli and Staphylococcus was 52.9% and 20%, respectively, while third-generation cephalosporin resistance was 31.2% and 20%, respectively. Among the neonates diagnosed as probable sepsis, idiopathic prematurity ( P = 0.007) was found to have a statistically significant association with culture-positive sepsis. The culture positivity rate among the neonates with probable sepsis in the current study was 26%. An alarmingly high degree of antibiotic resistance observed calls for robust infection control practices and an urgent evaluation and development of individual and national antibiotic policies for neonatal sepsis.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-01-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Use of generalized population ratios to obtain Fe XV line intensities and linewidths at high electron densities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastner, S. O.; Bhatia, A. K.

1980-08-01

A generalized method for obtaining individual level population ratios is used to obtain relative intensities of extreme ultraviolet Fe XV emission lines in the range 284-500 A, which are density dependent for electron densities in the tokamak regime or higher. Four lines in particular are found to attain quite high intensities in the high-density limit. The same calculation provides inelastic contributions to linewidths. The method connects level populations and level widths through total probabilities t(ij), related to 'taboo' probabilities of Markov chain theory. The t(ij) are here evaluated for a real atomic system, being therefore of potential interest to random-walk theorists who have been limited to idealized systems characterized by simplified transition schemes.

Reduced transition probabilities along the yrast line in 166W

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayǧı, B.; Joss, D. T.; Page, R. D.; Grahn, T.; Simpson, J.; O'Donnell, D.; Alharshan, G.; Auranen, K.; Bäck, T.; Boening, S.; Braunroth, T.; Carroll, R. J.; Cederwall, B.; Cullen, D. M.; Dewald, A.; Doncel, M.; Donosa, L.; Drummond, M. C.; Ertuǧral, F.; Ertürk, S.; Fransen, C.; Greenlees, P. T.; Hackstein, M.; Hauschild, K.; Herzan, A.; Jakobsson, U.; Jones, P. M.; Julin, R.; Juutinen, S.; Konki, J.; Kröll, T.; Labiche, M.; Lopez-Martens, A.; McPeake, C. G.; Moradi, F.; Möller, O.; Mustafa, M.; Nieminen, P.; Pakarinen, J.; Partanen, J.; Peura, P.; Procter, M.; Rahkila, P.; Rother, W.; Ruotsalainen, P.; Sandzelius, M.; Sarén, J.; Scholey, C.; Sorri, J.; Stolze, S.; Taylor, M. J.; Thornthwaite, A.; Uusitalo, J.

2017-08-01

Lifetimes of excited states in the yrast band of the neutron-deficient nuclide 166W have been measured utilizing the DPUNS plunger device at the target position of the JUROGAM II γ -ray spectrometer in conjunction with the RITU gas-filled separator and the GREAT focal-plane spectrometer. Excited states in 166W were populated in the 92Mo(78Kr,4 p ) reaction at a bombarding energy of 380 MeV. The measurements reveal a low value for the ratio of reduced transitions probabilities for the lowest-lying transitions B (E 2 ;4+→2+) /B (E 2 ;2+→0+) =0.33 (5 ) , compared with the expected ratio for an axially deformed rotor (B4 /2 = 1.43).

Signal-processing analysis of the MC2823 radar fuze: an addendum concerning clutter effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jelinek, D.A.

1978-07-01

A detailed analysis of the signal processing of the MC2823 radar fuze was published by Thompson in 1976 which enabled the computation of dud probability versus signal-to-noise ratio where the noise was receiver noise. An addendum to Thompson's work was published by Williams in 1978 that modified the weighting function used by Thompson. The analysis presented herein extends the work of Thompson to include the effects of clutter (the non-signal portion of the echo from a terrain) using the new weighting function. This extension enables computation of dud probability versus signal-to-total-noise ratio where total noise is the sum of themore » receiver-noise power and the clutter power.« less

Properties of behavior under different random ratio and random interval schedules: A parametric study.

PubMed

Dembo, M; De Penfold, J B; Ruiz, R; Casalta, H

1985-03-01

Four pigeons were trained to peck a key under different values of a temporally defined independent variable (T) and different probabilities of reinforcement (p). Parameter T is a fixed repeating time cycle and p the probability of reinforcement for the first response of each cycle T. Two dependent variables were used: mean response rate and mean postreinforcement pause. For all values of p a critical value for the independent variable T was found (T=1 sec) in which marked changes took place in response rate and postreinforcement pauses. Behavior typical of random ratio schedules was obtained at T 1 sec and behavior typical of random interval schedules at T 1 sec. Copyright © 1985. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Influence of pore structure on compressive strength of cement mortar.

PubMed

Zhao, Haitao; Xiao, Qi; Huang, Donghui; Zhang, Shiping

2014-01-01

This paper describes an experimental investigation into the pore structure of cement mortar using mercury porosimeter. Ordinary Portland cement, manufactured sand, and natural sand were used. The porosity of the manufactured sand mortar is higher than that of natural sand at the same mix proportion; on the contrary, the probable pore size and threshold radius of manufactured sand mortar are finer. Besides, the probable pore size and threshold radius increased with increasing water to cement ratio and sand to cement ratio. In addition, the existing models of pore size distribution of cement-based materials have been reviewed and compared with test results in this paper. Finally, the extended Bhattacharjee model was built to examine the relationship between compressive strength and pore structure.

Influence of Pore Structure on Compressive Strength of Cement Mortar

PubMed Central

Zhao, Haitao; Xiao, Qi; Huang, Donghui

2014-01-01

This paper describes an experimental investigation into the pore structure of cement mortar using mercury porosimeter. Ordinary Portland cement, manufactured sand, and natural sand were used. The porosity of the manufactured sand mortar is higher than that of natural sand at the same mix proportion; on the contrary, the probable pore size and threshold radius of manufactured sand mortar are finer. Besides, the probable pore size and threshold radius increased with increasing water to cement ratio and sand to cement ratio. In addition, the existing models of pore size distribution of cement-based materials have been reviewed and compared with test results in this paper. Finally, the extended Bhattacharjee model was built to examine the relationship between compressive strength and pore structure. PMID:24757414

Risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation.

PubMed

Atchison, Christie M; Amankwah, Ernest; Wilhelm, Jean; Arlikar, Shilpa; Branchford, Brian R; Stock, Arabela; Streiff, Michael; Takemoto, Clifford; Ayala, Irmel; Everett, Allen; Stapleton, Gary; Jacobs, Marshall L; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Goldenberg, Neil A

2018-02-01

Paediatric hospital-associated venous thromboembolism is a leading quality and safety concern at children's hospitals. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. We conducted a retrospective, case-control study of children admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (St. Petersburg, Florida, United States of America) from 2006 to 2013. Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases were identified based on ICD-9 discharge codes and validated using radiological record review. We randomly selected two contemporaneous cardiovascular intensive care unit controls without hospital-associated venous thromboembolism for each hospital-associated venous thromboembolism case, and limited the study population to patients who had undergone cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between putative risk factors and hospital-associated venous thromboembolism were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Among 2718 admissions to the cardiovascular intensive care unit during the study period, 65 met the criteria for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (occurrence rate, 2%). Restriction to cases and controls having undergone the procedures of interest yielded a final study population of 57 hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases and 76 controls. In a multiple logistic regression model, major infection (odds ratio=5.77, 95% confidence interval=1.06-31.4), age ⩽1 year (odds ratio=6.75, 95% confidence interval=1.13-160), and central venous catheterisation (odds ratio=7.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13-47.8) were found to be statistically significant independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in these children. Patients with all three factors had a markedly increased post-test probability of having hospital-associated venous thromboembolism. Major infection, infancy, and central venous catheterisation are independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or cardiac catheter-based intervention, which, in combination, define a high-risk group for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism.

[MRI-Based Ratio of Fetal Lung to Body Volume as New Prognostic Marker for Chronic Lung Disease in Patients with Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia].

PubMed

Winkler, Melissa M; Weis, Meike; Henzler, Claudia; Weiß, Christel; Kehl, Sven; Schoenberg, Stefan O; Neff, Wolfgang; Schaible, Thomas

2017-03-01

Background Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based ratio of fetal lung volume (FLV) to fetal body volume (FBV) as a marker for development of chronic lung disease (CLD) in fetuses with congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Patients and Methods FLV and FBV were measured and the individual FLV/FBV ratio was calculated in 132 fetuses. Diagnosis of CLD was established following prespecified criteria and graded into mild/moderate/severe if present. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate the probability of postnatal development of CLD in dependence of the FLV/FBV ratio. Receiver operating characteristic curves were analysed by calculating the area under the curve to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of this marker. Results 61 of 132 fetuses developed CLD (46.21%). The FLV/FBV ratio was significantly lower in fetuses with CLD (p=0.0008; AUC 0.743). Development of CLD was significantly associated with thoracic herniation of liver parenchyma (p<0.0001), requirement of extracorporal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (p<0.0001) and gestational age at delivery (p=0.0052). Conclusion The MRI-based ratio of FLV to FBV is a highly valuable prenatal parameter for development of CLD. The ratio is helpful for early therapeutic decisions by estimating the probability to develop CLD. Perinatally, gestational age at delivery and ECMO requirement are useful additional parameters to further improve prediction of CLD. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Impact of an educational intervention designed to reduce unnecessary recall during screening mammography.

PubMed

Carney, Patricia A; Abraham, Linn; Cook, Andrea; Feig, Stephen A; Sickles, Edward A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Geller, Berta M; Yankaskas, Bonnie C; Elmore, Joann G

2012-09-01

The aim of this study was to describe the impact of a tailored Web-based educational program designed to reduce excessive screening mammography recall. Radiologists enrolled in one of four mammography registries in the United States were invited to take part and were randomly assigned to receive the intervention or to serve as controls. The controls were offered the intervention at the end of the study, and data collection included an assessment of their clinical practice as well. The intervention provided each radiologist with individual audit data for his or her sensitivity, specificity, recall rate, positive predictive value, and cancer detection rate compared to national benchmarks and peer comparisons for the same measures; profiled breast cancer risk in each radiologist's respective patient populations to illustrate how low breast cancer risk is in population-based settings; and evaluated the possible impact of medical malpractice concerns on recall rates. Participants' recall rates from actual practice were evaluated for three time periods: the 9 months before the intervention was delivered to the intervention group (baseline period), the 9 months between the intervention and control groups (T1), and the 9 months after completion of the intervention by the controls (T2). Logistic regression models examining the probability that a mammogram was recalled included indication of intervention versus control and time period (baseline, T1, and T2). Interactions between the groups and time period were also included to determine if the association between time period and the probability of a positive result differed across groups. Thirty-one radiologists who completed the continuing medical education intervention were included in the adjusted model comparing radiologists in the intervention group (n = 22) to radiologists who completed the intervention in the control group (n = 9). At T1, the intervention group had 12% higher odds of positive mammographic results compared to the controls, after controlling for baseline (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.27; P = .0569). At T2, a similar association was found, but it was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.25). No associations were found among radiologists in the control group when comparing those who completed the continuing medical education intervention (n = 9) to those who did not (n = 10). In addition, no associations were found between time period and recall rate among radiologists who set realistic goals. This study resulted in a null effect, which may indicate that a single 1-hour intervention is not adequate to change excessive recall among radiologists who undertook the intervention being tested. Copyright © 2012 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of a nurse practitioner-family physician model of care in a nursing home: controlled before and after study.

PubMed

Lacny, Sarah; Zarrabi, Mahmood; Martin-Misener, Ruth; Donald, Faith; Sketris, Ingrid; Murphy, Andrea L; DiCenso, Alba; Marshall, Deborah A

2016-09-01

To examine the cost-effectiveness of a nurse practitioner-family physician model of care compared with family physician-only care in a Canadian nursing home. As demand for long-term care increases, alternative care models including nurse practitioners are being explored. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a controlled before-after design. The study included an 18-month 'before' period (2005-2006) and a 21-month 'after' time period (2007-2009). Data were abstracted from charts from 2008-2010. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing the intervention (nurse practitioner-family physician model; n = 45) to internal (n = 65), external (n = 70) and combined internal/external family physician-only control groups, measured as the change in healthcare costs divided by the change in emergency department transfers/person-month. We assessed joint uncertainty around costs and effects using non-parametric bootstrapping and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Point estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio demonstrated the nurse practitioner-family physician model dominated the internal and combined control groups (i.e. was associated with smaller increases in costs and emergency department transfers/person-month). Compared with the external control, the intervention resulted in a smaller increase in costs and larger increase in emergency department transfers. Using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $1000 CAD/emergency department transfer, the probability the intervention was cost-effective compared with the internal, external and combined control groups was 26%, 21% and 25%. Due to uncertainty around the distribution of costs and effects, we were unable to make a definitive conclusion regarding the cost-effectiveness of the nurse practitioner-family physician model; however, these results suggest benefits that could be confirmed in a larger study. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigating Gender Differences under Time Pressure in Financial Risk Taking

PubMed Central

Xie, Zhixin; Page, Lionel; Hardy, Ben

2017-01-01

There is a significant gender imbalance on financial trading floors. This motivated us to investigate gender differences in financial risk taking under pressure. We used a well-established approach from behavior economics to analyze a series of risky monetary choices by male and female participants with and without time pressure. We also used second to fourth digit ratio (2D:4D) and face width-to-height ratio (fWHR) as correlates of pre-natal exposure to testosterone. We constructed a structural model and estimated the participants' risk attitudes and probability perceptions via maximum likelihood estimation under both expected utility (EU) and rank-dependent utility (RDU) models. In line with existing research, we found that male participants are less risk averse and that the gender gap in risk attitudes increases under moderate time pressure. We found that female participants with lower 2D:4D ratios and higher fWHR are less risk averse in RDU estimates. Males with lower 2D:4D ratios were less risk averse in EU estimations, but more risk averse using RDU estimates. We also observe that men whose ratios indicate a greater prenatal exposure to testosterone exhibit a greater optimism and overestimation of small probabilities of success. PMID:29326566

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

The reduced transition probabilities for excited states of rare-earths and actinide even-even nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghumman, S. S.

The theoretical B(E2) ratios have been calculated on DF, DR and Krutov models. A simple method based on the work of Arima and Iachello is used to calculate the reduced transition probabilities within SU(3) limit of IBA-I framework. The reduced E2 transition probabilities from second excited states of rare-earths and actinide even–even nuclei calculated from experimental energies and intensities from recent data, have been found to compare better with those calculated on the Krutov model and the SU(3) limit of IBA than the DR and DF models.

Prevalence of tuberculous infection and incidence of tuberculosis; a re-assessment of the Styblo rule

PubMed Central

van der Werf, MJ; Borgdorff, MW

2008-01-01

Abstract Objective To evaluate the validity of the fixed mathematical relationship between the annual risk of tuberculous infection (ARTI), the prevalence of smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) and the incidence of smear-positive TB specified as the Styblo rule, which TB control programmes use to estimate the incidence of TB disease at a population level and the case detection rate. Methods Population-based tuberculin surveys and surveys on prevalence of smear-positive TB since 1975 were identified through a literature search. For these surveys, the ratio between the number of tuberculous infections (based on ARTI estimates) and the number of smear-positive TB cases was calculated and compared to the ratio of 8 to 12 tuberculous infections per prevalent smear-positive TB case as part of the Styblo rule. Findings Three countries had national population-based data on both ARTI and prevalence of smear-positive TB for more than one point in time. In China the ratio ranged from 3.4 to 5.8, in the Philippines from 2.6 to 4.4, and in the Republic of Korea, from 3.2 to 4.7. All ratios were markedly lower than the ratio that is part of the Styblo rule. Conclusion According to recent country data, there are typically fewer than 8 to 12 tuberculous infections per prevalent smear-positive TB case, and it remains unclear whether this ratio varies significantly among countries. The decrease in the ratio compared to the Styblo rule probably relates to improvements in the prompt treatment of TB disease (by national TB programmes). A change in the number of tuberculous infections per prevalent smear-positive TB case in population-based surveys makes the assumed fixed mathematical relationship between ARTI and incidence of smear-positive TB no longer valid. PMID:18235886

The Unevenly Distributed Nearest Brown Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bihain, Gabriel; Scholz, Ralf-Dieter

2016-08-01

To address the questions of how many brown dwarfs there are in the Milky Way, how do these objects relate to star formation, and whether the brown dwarf formation rate was different in the past, the star-to-brown dwarf number ratio can be considered. While main sequence stars are well known components of the solar neighborhood, lower mass, substellar objects increasingly add to the census of the nearest objects. The sky projection of the known objects at <6.5 pc shows that stars present a uniform distribution and brown dwarfs a non-uniform distribution, with about four times more brown dwarfs behind than ahead of the Sun relative to the direction of rotation of the Galaxy. Assuming that substellar objects distribute uniformly, their observed configuration has a probability of 0.1 %. The helio- and geocentricity of the configuration suggests that it probably results from an observational bias, which if compensated for by future discoveries, would bring the star-to-brown dwarf ratio in agreement with the average ratio found in star forming regions.

Atmospheric conditions, lunar phases, and childbirth: a multivariate analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochiai, Angela Megumi; Gonçalves, Fabio Luiz Teixeira; Ambrizzi, Tercio; Florentino, Lucia Cristina; Wei, Chang Yi; Soares, Alda Valeria Neves; De Araujo, Natalucia Matos; Gualda, Dulce Maria Rosa

2012-07-01

Our objective was to assess extrinsic influences upon childbirth. In a cohort of 1,826 days containing 17,417 childbirths among them 13,252 spontaneous labor admissions, we studied the influence of environment upon the high incidence of labor (defined by 75th percentile or higher), analyzed by logistic regression. The predictors of high labor admission included increases in outdoor temperature (odds ratio: 1.742, P = 0.045, 95%CI: 1.011 to 3.001), and decreases in atmospheric pressure (odds ratio: 1.269, P = 0.029, 95%CI: 1.055 to 1.483). In contrast, increases in tidal range were associated with a lower probability of high admission (odds ratio: 0.762, P = 0.030, 95%CI: 0.515 to 0.999). Lunar phase was not a predictor of high labor admission ( P = 0.339). Using multivariate analysis, increases in temperature and decreases in atmospheric pressure predicted high labor admission, and increases of tidal range, as a measurement of the lunar gravitational force, predicted a lower probability of high admission.

Stationary echo canceling in velocity estimation by time-domain cross-correlation.

PubMed

Jensen, J A

1993-01-01

The application of stationary echo canceling to ultrasonic estimation of blood velocities using time-domain cross-correlation is investigated. Expressions are derived that show the influence from the echo canceler on the signals that enter the cross-correlation estimator. It is demonstrated that the filtration results in a velocity-dependent degradation of the signal-to-noise ratio. An analytic expression is given for the degradation for a realistic pulse. The probability of correct detection at low signal-to-noise ratios is influenced by signal-to-noise ratio, transducer bandwidth, center frequency, number of samples in the range gate, and number of A-lines employed in the estimation. Quantitative results calculated by a simple simulation program are given for the variation in probability from these parameters. An index reflecting the reliability of the estimate at hand can be calculated from the actual cross-correlation estimate by a simple formula and used in rejecting poor estimates or in displaying the reliability of the velocity estimated.

Performance analysis of the word synchronization properties of the outer code in a TDRSS decoder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costello, D. J., Jr.; Lin, S.

1984-01-01

A self-synchronizing coding scheme for NASA's TDRSS satellite system is a concatenation of a (2,1,7) inner convolutional code with a (255,223) Reed-Solomon outer code. Both symbol and word synchronization are achieved without requiring that any additional symbols be transmitted. An important parameter which determines the performance of the word sync procedure is the ratio of the decoding failure probability to the undetected error probability. Ideally, the former should be as small as possible compared to the latter when the error correcting capability of the code is exceeded. A computer simulation of a (255,223) Reed-Solomon code as carried out. Results for decoding failure probability and for undetected error probability are tabulated and compared.

Seven Golden Rules for heuristic filtering of molecular formulas obtained by accurate mass spectrometry

PubMed Central

Kind, Tobias; Fiehn, Oliver

2007-01-01

Background Structure elucidation of unknown small molecules by mass spectrometry is a challenge despite advances in instrumentation. The first crucial step is to obtain correct elemental compositions. In order to automatically constrain the thousands of possible candidate structures, rules need to be developed to select the most likely and chemically correct molecular formulas. Results An algorithm for filtering molecular formulas is derived from seven heuristic rules: (1) restrictions for the number of elements, (2) LEWIS and SENIOR chemical rules, (3) isotopic patterns, (4) hydrogen/carbon ratios, (5) element ratio of nitrogen, oxygen, phosphor, and sulphur versus carbon, (6) element ratio probabilities and (7) presence of trimethylsilylated compounds. Formulas are ranked according to their isotopic patterns and subsequently constrained by presence in public chemical databases. The seven rules were developed on 68,237 existing molecular formulas and were validated in four experiments. First, 432,968 formulas covering five million PubChem database entries were checked for consistency. Only 0.6% of these compounds did not pass all rules. Next, the rules were shown to effectively reducing the complement all eight billion theoretically possible C, H, N, S, O, P-formulas up to 2000 Da to only 623 million most probable elemental compositions. Thirdly 6,000 pharmaceutical, toxic and natural compounds were selected from DrugBank, TSCA and DNP databases. The correct formulas were retrieved as top hit at 80–99% probability when assuming data acquisition with complete resolution of unique compounds and 5% absolute isotope ratio deviation and 3 ppm mass accuracy. Last, some exemplary compounds were analyzed by Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry and by gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry. In each case, the correct formula was ranked as top hit when combining the seven rules with database queries. Conclusion The seven rules enable an automatic exclusion of molecular formulas which are either wrong or which contain unlikely high or low number of elements. The correct molecular formula is assigned with a probability of 98% if the formula exists in a compound database. For truly novel compounds that are not present in databases, the correct formula is found in the first three hits with a probability of 65–81%. Corresponding software and supplemental data are available for downloads from the authors' website. PMID:17389044

On the universality of knot probability ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janse van Rensburg, E. J.; Rechnitzer, A.

2011-04-01

Let pn denote the number of self-avoiding polygons of length n on a regular three-dimensional lattice, and let pn(K) be the number which have knot type K. The probability that a random polygon of length n has knot type K is pn(K)/pn and is known to decay exponentially with length (Sumners and Whittington 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 21 1689-94, Pippenger 1989 Discrete Appl. Math. 25 273-8). Little is known rigorously about the asymptotics of pn(K), but there is substantial numerical evidence (Orlandini et al 1988 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 31 5953-67, Marcone et al 2007 Phys. Rev. E 75 41105, Rawdon et al 2008 Macromolecules 41 4444-51, Janse van Rensburg and Rechnitzer 2008 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 41 105002) that pn(K) grows as p_n(K) \\simeq C_K \\mu _\\emptyset ^n n^{\\alpha -3+N_K}, \\qquad as\\quad n \\rightarrow \\infty, where NK is the number of prime components of the knot type K. It is believed that the entropic exponent, α, is universal, while the exponential growth rate, μ∅, is independent of the knot type but varies with the lattice. The amplitude, CK, depends on both the lattice and the knot type. The above asymptotic form implies that the relative probability of a random polygon of length n having prime knot type K over prime knot type L is \\frac{p_n(K)/p_n}{p_n(L)/p_n} = \\frac{p_n(K)}{p_n(L)} \\simeq \\left[ \\frac{C_K}{C_L} \\right].\\\\[-8pt] In the thermodynamic limit this probability ratio becomes an amplitude ratio; it should be universal and depend only on the knot types K and L. In this communication we examine the universality of these probability ratios for polygons in the simple cubic, face-centred cubic and body-centred cubic lattices. Our results support the hypothesis that these are universal quantities. For example, we estimate that a long random polygon is approximately 28 times more likely to be a trefoil than be a figure-eight, independent of the underlying lattice, giving an estimate of the intrinsic entropy associated with knot types in closed curves.

Ellipticity angle of electromagnetic signals and its use for non-energetic detection optimal by the Neumann-Pearson criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, V. A.; Sharygin, G. S.; Mironov, M. V.

2012-08-01

An interval method of radar signal detection and selection based on non-energetic polarization parameter - the ellipticity angle - is suggested. The examined method is optimal by the Neumann-Pearson criterion. The probability of correct detection for a preset probability of false alarm is calculated for different signal/noise ratios. Recommendations for optimization of the given method are provided.

Serum galactomannan versus a combination of galactomannan and polymerase chain reaction-based Aspergillus DNA detection for early therapy of invasive aspergillosis in high-risk hematological patients: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Aguado, José María; Vázquez, Lourdes; Fernández-Ruiz, Mario; Villaescusa, Teresa; Ruiz-Camps, Isabel; Barba, Pere; Silva, Jose T; Batlle, Montserrat; Solano, Carlos; Gallardo, David; Heras, Inmaculada; Polo, Marta; Varela, Rosario; Vallejo, Carlos; Olave, Teresa; López-Jiménez, Javier; Rovira, Montserrat; Parody, Rocío; Cuenca-Estrella, Manuel

2015-02-01

The benefit of the combination of serum galactomannan (GM) assay and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based detection of serum Aspergillus DNA for the early diagnosis and therapy of invasive aspergillosis (IA) in high-risk hematological patients remains unclear. We performed an open-label, controlled, parallel-group randomized trial in 13 Spanish centers. Adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome on induction therapy or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients were randomized (1:1 ratio) to 1 of 2 arms: "GM-PCR group" (the results of serial serum GM and PCR assays were provided to treating physicians) and "GM group" (only the results of serum GM were informed). Positivity in either assay prompted thoracic computed tomography scan and initiation of antifungal therapy. No antimold prophylaxis was permitted. Overall, 219 patients underwent randomization (105 in the GM-PCR group and 114 in the GM group). The cumulative incidence of "proven" or "probable" IA (primary study outcome) was lower in the GM-PCR group (4.2% vs 13.1%; odds ratio, 0.29 [95% confidence interval, .09-.91]). The median interval from the start of monitoring to the diagnosis of IA was lower in the GM-PCR group (13 vs 20 days; P = .022), as well as the use of empirical antifungal therapy (16.7% vs 29.0%; P = .038). Patients in the GM-PCR group had higher proven or probable IA-free survival (P = .027). A combined monitoring strategy based on serum GM and Aspergillus DNA was associated with an earlier diagnosis and a lower incidence of IA in high-risk hematological patients. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01742026. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Tumor Control Probability Modeling for Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy of Early-Stage Lung Cancer Using Multiple Bio-physical Models

PubMed Central

Liu, Feng; Tai, An; Lee, Percy; Biswas, Tithi; Ding, George X.; El Naqa, Isaam; Grimm, Jimm; Jackson, Andrew; Kong, Feng-Ming (Spring); LaCouture, Tamara; Loo, Billy; Miften, Moyed; Solberg, Timothy; Li, X Allen

2017-01-01

Purpose To analyze pooled clinical data using different radiobiological models and to understand the relationship between biologically effective dose (BED) and tumor control probability (TCP) for stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Method and Materials The clinical data of 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year actuarial or Kaplan-Meier TCP from 46 selected studies were collected for SBRT of NSCLC in the literature. The TCP data were separated for Stage T1 and T2 tumors if possible, otherwise collected for combined stages. BED was calculated at isocenters using six radiobiological models. For each model, the independent model parameters were determined from a fit to the TCP data using the least chi-square (χ2) method with either one set of parameters regardless of tumor stages or two sets for T1 and T2 tumors separately. Results The fits to the clinic data yield consistent results of large α/β ratios of about 20 Gy for all models investigated. The regrowth model that accounts for the tumor repopulation and heterogeneity leads to a better fit to the data, compared to other 5 models where the fits were indistinguishable between the models. The models based on the fitting parameters predict that the T2 tumors require about additional 1 Gy physical dose at isocenters per fraction (≤5 fractions) to achieve the optimal TCP when compared to the T1 tumors. Conclusion This systematic analysis of a large set of published clinical data using different radiobiological models shows that local TCP for SBRT of early-stage NSCLC has strong dependence on BED with large α/β ratios of about 20 Gy. The six models predict that a BED (calculated with α/β of 20) of 90 Gy is sufficient to achieve TCP ≥ 95%. Among the models considered, the regrowth model leads to a better fit to the clinical data. PMID:27871671

Properties of strong-coupling magneto-bipolaron qubit in quantum dot under magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu-Fang, Bai; Ying, Zhang; Wuyunqimuge; Eerdunchaolu

2016-07-01

Based on the variational method of Pekar type, we study the energies and the wave-functions of the ground and the first-excited states of magneto-bipolaron, which is strongly coupled to the LO phonon in a parabolic potential quantum dot under an applied magnetic field, thus built up a quantum dot magneto-bipolaron qubit. The results show that the oscillation period of the probability density of the two electrons in the qubit decreases with increasing electron-phonon coupling strength α, resonant frequency of the magnetic field ω c, confinement strength of the quantum dot ω 0, and dielectric constant ratio of the medium η the probability density of the two electrons in the qubit oscillates periodically with increasing time t, angular coordinate φ 2, and dielectric constant ratio of the medium η the probability of electron appearing near the center of the quantum dot is larger, and the probability of electron appearing away from the center of the quantum dot is much smaller. Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province, China (Grant No. E2013407119) and the Items of Institution of Higher Education Scientific Research of Hebei Province and Inner Mongolia, China (Grant Nos. ZD20131008, Z2015149, Z2015219, and NJZY14189).

Syntax for calculation of discounting indices from the monetary choice questionnaire and probability discounting questionnaire.

PubMed

Gray, Joshua C; Amlung, Michael T; Palmer, Abraham A; MacKillop, James

2016-09-01

The 27-item Monetary Choice Questionnaire (MCQ; Kirby, Petry, & Bickel, 1999) and 30-item Probability Discounting Questionnaire (PDQ; Madden, Petry, & Johnson, 2009) are widely used, validated measures of preferences for immediate versus delayed rewards and guaranteed versus risky rewards, respectively. The MCQ measures delayed discounting by asking individuals to choose between rewards available immediately and larger rewards available after a delay. The PDQ measures probability discounting by asking individuals to choose between guaranteed rewards and a chance at winning larger rewards. Numerous studies have implicated these measures in addiction and other health behaviors. Unlike typical self-report measures, the MCQ and PDQ generate inferred hyperbolic temporal and probability discounting functions by comparing choice preferences to arrays of functions to which the individual items are preconfigured. This article provides R and SPSS syntax for processing the MCQ and PDQ. Specifically, for the MCQ, the syntax generates k values, consistency of the inferred k, and immediate choice ratios; for the PDQ, the syntax generates h indices, consistency of the inferred h, and risky choice ratios. The syntax is intended to increase the accessibility of these measures, expedite the data processing, and reduce risk for error. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Estimating adult sex ratios in nature.

PubMed

Ancona, Sergio; Dénes, Francisco V; Krüger, Oliver; Székely, Tamás; Beissinger, Steven R

2017-09-19

Adult sex ratio (ASR, the proportion of males in the adult population) is a central concept in population and evolutionary biology, and is also emerging as a major factor influencing mate choice, pair bonding and parental cooperation in both human and non-human societies. However, estimating ASR is fraught with difficulties stemming from the effects of spatial and temporal variation in the numbers of males and females, and detection/capture probabilities that differ between the sexes. Here, we critically evaluate methods for estimating ASR in wild animal populations, reviewing how recent statistical advances can be applied to handle some of these challenges. We review methods that directly account for detection differences between the sexes using counts of unmarked individuals (observed, trapped or killed) and counts of marked individuals using mark-recapture models. We review a third class of methods that do not directly sample the number of males and females, but instead estimate the sex ratio indirectly using relationships that emerge from demographic measures, such as survival, age structure, reproduction and assumed dynamics. We recommend that detection-based methods be used for estimating ASR in most situations, and point out that studies are needed that compare different ASR estimation methods and control for sex differences in dispersal.This article is part of the themed issue 'Adult sex ratios and reproductive decisions: a critical re-examination of sex differences in human and animal societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

SUPERNOVA DRIVING. II. COMPRESSIVE RATIO IN MOLECULAR-CLOUD TURBULENCE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Liubin; Padoan, Paolo; Haugbølle, Troels

2016-07-01

The compressibility of molecular cloud (MC) turbulence plays a crucial role in star formation models, because it controls the amplitude and distribution of density fluctuations. The relation between the compressive ratio (the ratio of powers in compressive and solenoidal motions) and the statistics of turbulence has been previously studied systematically only in idealized simulations with random external forces. In this work, we analyze a simulation of large-scale turbulence (250 pc) driven by supernova (SN) explosions that has been shown to yield realistic MC properties. We demonstrate that SN driving results in MC turbulence with a broad lognormal distribution of themore » compressive ratio, with a mean value ≈0.3, lower than the equilibrium value of ≈0.5 found in the inertial range of isothermal simulations with random solenoidal driving. We also find that the compressibility of the turbulence is not noticeably affected by gravity, nor are the mean cloud radial (expansion or contraction) and solid-body rotation velocities. Furthermore, the clouds follow a general relation between the rms density and the rms Mach number similar to that of supersonic isothermal turbulence, though with a large scatter, and their average gas density probability density function is described well by a lognormal distribution, with the addition of a high-density power-law tail when self-gravity is included.« less

Evaluation of selected interleukins in patients with different gastric neoplasms: a preliminary report.

PubMed

Madej-Michniewicz, Anna; Budkowska, Marta; Sałata, Daria; Dołęgowska, Barbara; Starzyńska, Teresa; Błogowski, Wojciech

2015-10-21

Abnormal interactions between cytokines may be an overlooked mechanism linking the development of different types of gastric neoplasms. In this study a comprehensive analysis of the systemic levels of interleukins (IL-1,IL-6, IL-8,IL-10 and IL-12) was performed in 75 patients with different gastric neoplasms (cancer, gastrointestinal stromal tumors, neuroendocrine neoplasms, lymphomas) and 40 healthy volunteers. Patients with gastric cancer (GC) have significantly higher IL-6 levels, and lower IL-8 and IL-10 concentrations, in comparison to controls and patients with other gastric neoplasms. Analogous results were observed in terms of IL-6/IL-8 and IL-6/IL-10 ratios, whose values were also higher in GC patients. In GC patients no associations were detected between the systemic levels/values of interleukins (ratios) and TNM staging. IL-6, IL-10, IL-6/IL-8 and IL-6/IL-10 ratios appeared to hold diagnostic potential in confirming/excluding the presence of GC. Their sensitivity/specificity in GC detection/exclusion was approximately 54-72%. In conclusion, disturbed systemic biochemical balance in multiple interleukins exists at the earliest stages of and appears to be specific to GC. The interleukin ratios proposed here seem to be more promising indicators of GC in humans than direct systemic levels of interleukins, and probably possess the potential to be applied as a supporting factor for techniques routinely used.

Temporal characteristics of atmospheric CO2 in urban Nanjing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xiaoxian; Wang, Tijian; Talbot, Robert; Xie, Min; Mao, Huiting; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bingliang; Yang, Xiuqun; Fu, Congbin; Zhu, Jialei; Huang, Xing; Xu, Runying

2015-02-01

Although China is a big carbon dioxide (CO2) emitter, in situ measurements of atmospheric CO2 are sparse in urban China. The mixing ratio of carbon dioxide (CO2) and its influencing factors in urban Nanjing were investigated in this study, from the 18th of January to the 31st of December 2011. The annual average mixing ratio of CO2 was 406.5 ± 20.0 ppmv over the study period. The signal analysis using the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm showed that CO2 had different cycles as a result of multiple controlling factors. The seasonal and intra-seasonal fluctuations of CO2 were mainly caused by the terrestrial biospheric uptake and emission and atmospheric oscillation. The weekly variation of CO2 was largely influenced by traffic volume. The diurnal cycle of CO2 presented a bimodal pattern in winter (DJF) probably due to the rush hour emissions. The seasonal mean CO2/CO correlation slope varied from 0.024 ppmv/ppbv to 0.029 ppmv/ppbv, comparable to the fossil fuel combustion emission ratio. The diurnal pattern of CO2/CO was irregular, indicating random anthropogenic emissions in an urban area. Firework setting was a large source of CO2 during the Spring Festival holiday. The backward trajectories by the HYSPLIT model showed that the local anthropogenic emissions contributed the most to the high CO2 mixing ratio in the urban area.

Evaluation of selected interleukins in patients with different gastric neoplasms: a preliminary report

PubMed Central

Madej-Michniewicz, Anna; Budkowska, Marta; Sałata, Daria; Dołęgowska, Barbara; Starzyńska, Teresa; Błogowski, Wojciech

2015-01-01

Abnormal interactions between cytokines may be an overlooked mechanism linking the development of different types of gastric neoplasms. In this study a comprehensive analysis of the systemic levels of interleukins (IL-1,IL-6, IL-8,IL-10 and IL-12) was performed in 75 patients with different gastric neoplasms (cancer, gastrointestinal stromal tumors, neuroendocrine neoplasms, lymphomas) and 40 healthy volunteers. Patients with gastric cancer (GC) have significantly higher IL-6 levels, and lower IL-8 and IL-10 concentrations, in comparison to controls and patients with other gastric neoplasms. Analogous results were observed in terms of IL-6/IL-8 and IL-6/IL-10 ratios, whose values were also higher in GC patients. In GC patients no associations were detected between the systemic levels/values of interleukins (ratios) and TNM staging. IL-6, IL-10, IL-6/IL-8 and IL-6/IL-10 ratios appeared to hold diagnostic potential in confirming/excluding the presence of GC. Their sensitivity/specificity in GC detection/exclusion was approximately 54–72%. In conclusion, disturbed systemic biochemical balance in multiple interleukins exists at the earliest stages of and appears to be specific to GC. The interleukin ratios proposed here seem to be more promising indicators of GC in humans than direct systemic levels of interleukins, and probably possess the potential to be applied as a supporting factor for techniques routinely used. PMID:26486258

Predicting non-square 2D dice probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pender, G. A. T.; Uhrin, M.

2014-07-01

The prediction of the final state probabilities of a general cuboid randomly thrown onto a surface is a problem that naturally arises in the minds of men and women familiar with regular cubic dice and the basic concepts of probability. Indeed, it was considered by Newton in 1664 (Newton 1967 The Mathematical Papers of Issac Newton vol I (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) pp 60-1). In this paper we make progress on the 2D problem (which can be realized in 3D by considering a long cuboid, or alternatively a rectangular cross-sectioned dreidel). For the two-dimensional case we suggest that the ratio of the probabilities of landing on each of the two sides is given by \\frac{\\sqrt{{{k}^{2}}+{{l}^{2}}}-k}{\\sqrt{{{k}^{2}}+{{l}^{2}}}-l}\\frac{arctan \\frac{l}{k}}{arctan \\frac{k}{l}} where k and l are the lengths of the two sides. We test this theory both experimentally and computationally, and find good agreement between our theory, experimental and computational results. Our theory is known, from its derivation, to be an approximation for particularly bouncy or ‘grippy’ surfaces where the die rolls through many revolutions before settling. On real surfaces we would expect (and we observe) that the true probability ratio for a 2D die is a somewhat closer to unity than predicted by our theory. This problem may also have wider relevance in the testing of physics engines.

Human variability in mercury toxicokinetics and steady state biomarker ratios.

PubMed

Bartell, S M; Ponce, R A; Sanga, R N; Faustman, E M

2000-10-01

Regulatory guidelines regarding methylmercury exposure depend on dose-response models relating observed mercury concentrations in maternal blood, cord blood, and maternal hair to developmental neurobehavioral endpoints. Generalized estimates of the maternal blood-to-hair, blood-to-intake, or hair-to-intake ratios are necessary for linking exposure to biomarker-based dose-response models. Most assessments have used point estimates for these ratios; however, significant interindividual and interstudy variability has been reported. For example, a maternal ratio of 250 ppm in hair per mg/L in blood is commonly used in models, but a 1990 WHO review reports mean ratios ranging from 140 to 370 ppm per mg/L. To account for interindividual and interstudy variation in applying these ratios to risk and safety assessment, some researchers have proposed representing the ratios with probability distributions and conducting probabilistic assessments. Such assessments would allow regulators to consider the range and like-lihood of mercury exposures in a population, rather than limiting the evaluation to an estimate of the average exposure or a single conservative exposure estimate. However, no consensus exists on the most appropriate distributions for representing these parameters. We discuss published reviews of blood-to-hair and blood-to-intake steady state ratios for mercury and suggest statistical approaches for combining existing datasets to form generalized probability distributions for mercury distribution ratios. Although generalized distributions may not be applicable to all populations, they allow a more informative assessment than point estimates where individual biokinetic information is unavailable. Whereas development and use of these distributions will improve existing exposure and risk models, additional efforts in data generation and model development are required.

The actin-activated ATPase of co-polymer filaments of myosin and myosin-rod.

PubMed Central

Stepkowski, D; Orlova, A A; Moos, C

1994-01-01

The actin activated ATPase of myosin at low ionic strength shows a complex dependence on actin concentration, in contrast with the simple hyperbolic actin activation kinetics of heavy meromyosin and subfragment-1. To investigate how the aggregation of myosin influences the actomyosin ATPase kinetics, we have studied the actin-activated ATPase of mixed filaments in which the myosin molecules are separated from each other by copolymerization with myosin rod. Electron microscopy of copolymer filaments, alone and bound to actin, indicates that the myosin heads are distributed randomly along the co-polymer filaments. The actin-activated ATPase of myosin decreases with increasing rod, approaching a plateau of about 30% of the control at a rod/myosin molar ratio of 4:1. The decrease in ATPase persists even at Vmax, the extrapolated limit at infinite actin, indicating that it is not due merely to the loss of cooperative actin binding. Furthermore, the actin dependence of the ATPase still shows a biphasic character like that of control myosin, even at rod/myosin ratio of 12:1, so this complexity is not probably due solely to the structural proximity of myosin molecules, but may involve a non-equivalence of myosin heads or myosin molecules in the filament environment. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 PMID:8198528

Combustion characteristics in the transition region of liquid fuel sprays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cernansky, N. P.; Namer, I.; Tidona, R. J.

1986-01-01

A number of important effects have been observed in the droplet size transition region in spray combustion systems. In this region, where the mechanism of flame propagation is transformed from diffusive to premixed dominated combustion, the following effects have been observed: (1) maxima in burning velocity; (2) extension of flammability limits; (3) minima in ignition energy; and (4) minima in NOx formation. A monodisperse aerosol generator has been used to form and deliver a well controlled liquid fuel spray to the combustion test section where measurements of ignition energy have been made. The ignition studies were performed on monodisperse n-heptane sprays at atmospheric pressure over a range of equivalence ratios and droplet diameters. A capacitive discharge spark ignition system was used as the ignition source, providing independent control of spark energy and duration. Preliminary measurements were made to optimize spark duration and spark gap, optimum conditions being those at which the maximum frequency or probability of ignition was observed. Using the optimum electrode spacing and spark duration, the frequency of ignition was determined as a function of spark energy for three overall equivalence ratios (0.6, 0.8, and 1.0) and for initial droplet diameters of 25, 40, 50, 60, and 70 micro m.

{sigma}({chi}{sub c1})/{sigma}({chi}{sub c2}) ratio in the k{sub t}-factorization approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baranov, S. P.

2011-02-01

We address the puzzle of {sigma}({chi}{sub c1})/{sigma}({chi}{sub c2}) ratio at the collider and fixed-target experiments. We consider several factors that can affect the predicted ratio of the production rates. In particular, we discuss the effect of {chi}{sub cJ} polarization, the effect of including next-to-leading order contributions, and the effect of probably different {chi}{sub c1} and {chi}{sub c2} wave functions.

Career satisfaction of US women physicians: results from the Women Physicians' Health Study. Society of General Internal Medicine Career Satisfaction Study Group.

PubMed

Frank, E; McMurray, J E; Linzer, M; Elon, L

1999-07-12

Despite major changes in health care, the prevalence and predictors of career satisfaction have not recently been comprehensively studied in either women or men physicians. The Women Physicians' Health Study surveyed a nationally representative random sample (n = 4501 respondents; response rate, 59%) of US women physicians. Using univariate and logistic regression analyses, we examined personal and professional characteristics that were correlated with 3 major outcomes: career satisfaction, desire to become a physician again, and desire to change one's specialty. Women physicians were generally satisfied with their careers (84% usually, almost always, or always satisfied). However, 31% would maybe, probably, or definitely not choose to be a physician again, and 38% would maybe, probably, or definitely prefer to change their specialty. Physician's age, control of the work environment, work stress, and a history of harassment were independent predictors of all 3 outcomes, with younger physicians and those having least work control, most work stress, or having experienced severe harassment reporting the most dissatisfaction. The strongest association (odds ratio, 11.3; 95% confidence interval, 7.3-17.5; P<.001) was between work control and career satisfaction. Other significant predictors (P<.01) of outcomes included birthplace, ethnicity, sexual orientation, having children, stress at home, religious fervor, mental health, specialty, practice type, and workload. Women physicians generally report career satisfaction, but many, if given the choice, would not become a physician again or would choose a different specialty. Correctable factors such as work stress, harassment, and poor control over work environment should be addressed to improve the recruitment and retention of women physicians.

Risk factors for fibromyalgia: the role of violence against women.

PubMed

Ruiz-Pérez, Isabel; Plazaola-Castaño, Juncal; Cáliz-Cáliz, Rafael; Rodríguez-Calvo, Isabel; García-Sánchez, Antonio; Ferrer-González, Miguel Angel; Guzmán-Ubeda, Manuel; del Río-Lozano, María; López-Chicheri García, Isabel

2009-07-01

The objectives of the study were to analyse the association between fibromyalgia (FM) and violence against women and to explore the association between FM and sociodemographic factors, social support and psychological distress. A case-control study was conducted in a Spanish hospital. Cases were women diagnosed with FM, with no signs of any other type of inflammatory rheumatic disorder, who were seen at the Rheumatology Department of the hospital. Controls were women not diagnosed with FM who were seen at the Ear, Nose and Throat Department of the same hospital. A self-administered anonymous questionnaire was used to gather data on sociodemographic characteristics, violence, social support and psychological distress. Uni-, bi- and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted; 287 cases and 287 controls were recruited. The multivariate analysis showed that the probability of presenting FM increased with age (odds ratios (OR) = 1.06; CI95% = 1.03-1.09); that employed women and housewives were more likely to have the syndrome than unemployed women or students (OR = 4.97; CI95% = 1.45-17.02, and OR = 3.47; CI95% = 0.98-12.22, respectively); that the lower the educational level, the higher the probability of having FM; and that psychological distress was positively associated with the syndrome (OR = 4.62; CI95% = 2.68-7.97). Although abuse was more prevalent in cases than in controls, the differences were not statistically significant. However, frequency of abuse was positively and significantly correlated with FM. Although the aetiology of FM is still uncertain, it seems that certain psychosocial factors may be associated with the syndrome. Therefore, an interdisciplinary approach to the treatment of patients affected with this syndrome should be considered.

Tumour control probability derived from dose distribution in homogeneous and heterogeneous models: assuming similar pharmacokinetics, 125Sn-177Lu is superior to 90Y-177Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walrand, Stephan; Hanin, François-Xavier; Pauwels, Stanislas; Jamar, François

2012-07-01

Clinical trials on 177Lu-90Y therapy used empirical activity ratios. Radionuclides (RN) with larger beta maximal range could favourably replace 90Y. Our aim is to provide RN dose-deposition kernels and to compare the tumour control probability (TCP) of RN combinations. Dose kernels were derived by integration of the mono-energetic beta-ray dose distributions (computed using Monte Carlo) weighted by their respective beta spectrum. Nine homogeneous spherical tumours (1-25 mm in diameter) and four spherical tumours including a lattice of cold, but alive, spheres (1, 3, 5, 7 mm in diameter) were modelled. The TCP for 93Y, 90Y and 125Sn in combination with 177Lu in variable proportions (that kept constant the renal cortex biological effective dose) were derived by 3D dose kernel convolution. For a mean tumour-absorbed dose of 180 Gy, 2 mm homogeneous tumours and tumours including 3 mm diameter cold alive spheres were both well controlled (TCP > 0.9) using a 75-25% combination of 177Lu and 90Y activity. However, 125Sn-177Lu achieved a significantly better result by controlling 1 mm-homogeneous tumour simultaneously with tumours including 5 mm diameter cold alive spheres. Clinical trials using RN combinations should use RN proportions tuned to the patient dosimetry. 125Sn production and its coupling to somatostatin analogue appear feasible. Assuming similar pharmacokinetics 125Sn is the best RN for combination with 177Lu in peptide receptor radiotherapy justifying pharmacokinetics studies in rodent of 125Sn-labelled somatostatin analogues.

An Alignment-Free Algorithm in Comparing the Similarity of Protein Sequences Based on Pseudo-Markov Transition Probabilities among Amino Acids

PubMed Central

Li, Yushuang; Yang, Jiasheng; Zhang, Yi

2016-01-01

In this paper, we have proposed a novel alignment-free method for comparing the similarity of protein sequences. We first encode a protein sequence into a 440 dimensional feature vector consisting of a 400 dimensional Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector among the 20 amino acids, a 20 dimensional content ratio vector, and a 20 dimensional position ratio vector of the amino acids in the sequence. By evaluating the Euclidean distances among the representing vectors, we compare the similarity of protein sequences. We then apply this method into the ND5 dataset consisting of the ND5 protein sequences of 9 species, and the F10 and G11 datasets representing two of the xylanases containing glycoside hydrolase families, i.e., families 10 and 11. As a result, our method achieves a correlation coefficient of 0.962 with the canonical protein sequence aligner ClustalW in the ND5 dataset, much higher than those of other 5 popular alignment-free methods. In addition, we successfully separate the xylanases sequences in the F10 family and the G11 family and illustrate that the F10 family is more heat stable than the G11 family, consistent with a few previous studies. Moreover, we prove mathematically an identity equation involving the Pseudo-Markov transition probability vector and the amino acids content ratio vector. PMID:27918587

A TCP model for external beam treatment of intermediate-risk prostate cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Walsh, Sean; Putten, Wil van der

2013-03-15

Purpose: Biological models offer the ability to predict clinical outcomes. The authors describe a model to predict the clinical response of intermediate-risk prostate cancer to external beam radiotherapy for a variety of fractionation regimes. Methods: A fully heterogeneous population averaged tumor control probability model was fit to clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments. The tumor control probability model was then employed to predict the clinical outcome of extreme hypofractionation regimes, as utilized in stereotactic body radiotherapy. Results: The tumor control probability model achieves an excellent level of fit, R{sup 2} value of 0.93 and a root meanmore » squared error of 1.31%, to the clinical outcome data for hyper, standard, and hypofractionated treatments using realistic values for biological input parameters. Residuals Less-Than-Or-Slanted-Equal-To 1.0% are produced by the tumor control probability model when compared to clinical outcome data for stereotactic body radiotherapy. Conclusions: The authors conclude that this tumor control probability model, used with the optimized radiosensitivity values obtained from the fit, is an appropriate mechanistic model for the analysis and evaluation of external beam RT plans with regard to tumor control for these clinical conditions.« less

Hospital of Diagnosis Influences the Probability of Receiving Curative Treatment for Esophageal Cancer.

PubMed

van Putten, Margreet; Koëter, Marijn; van Laarhoven, Hanneke W M; Lemmens, Valery E P P; Siersema, Peter D; Hulshof, Maarten C C M; Verhoeven, Rob H A; Nieuwenhuijzen, Grard A P

2018-02-01

The aim of this article was to study the influence of hospital of diagnosis on the probability of receiving curative treatment and its impact on survival among patients with esophageal cancer (EC). Although EC surgery is centralized in the Netherlands, the disease is often diagnosed in hospitals that do not perform this procedure. Patients with potentially curable esophageal or gastroesophageal junction tumors diagnosed between 2005 and 2013 who were potentially curable (cT1-3,X, any N, M0,X) were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Multilevel logistic regression was performed to examine the probability to undergo curative treatment (resection with or without neoadjuvant treatment, definitive chemoradiotherapy, or local tumor excision) according to hospital of diagnosis. Effects of variation in probability of undergoing curative treatment among these hospitals on survival were investigated by Cox regression. All 13,017 patients with potentially curable EC, diagnosed in 91 hospitals, were included. The proportion of patients receiving curative treatment ranged from 37% to 83% and from 45% to 86% in the periods 2005-2009 and 2010-2013, respectively, depending on hospital of diagnosis. After adjustment for patient- and hospital-related characteristics these proportions ranged from 41% to 77% and from 50% to 82%, respectively (both P < 0.001). Multivariable survival analyses showed that patients diagnosed in hospitals with a low probability of undergoing curative treatment had a worse overall survival (hazard ratio = 1.13, 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.20; hazard ratio = 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.07-1.24). The variation in probability of undergoing potentially curative treatment for EC between hospitals of diagnosis and its impact on survival indicates that treatment decision making in EC may be improved.

Reduced probabilities for E2 transitions between excited collective states of triaxial even–even nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nadyrbekov, M. S., E-mail: nodirbekov@inp.uz; Bozarov, O. A.

Reduced probabilities for intra- and interband E2 transitions in excited collective states of even–even lanthanide and actinide nuclei are analyzed on the basis of a model that admits an arbitrary triaxiality. They are studied in detail in the energy spectra of {sup 154}Sm, {sup 156}Gd, {sup 158}Dy, {sup 162,164}Er, {sup 230,232}Th, and {sup 232,234,236,238}U even–even nuclei. Theoretical and experimental values of the reduced probabilities for the respective E2 transitions are compared. This comparison shows good agreement for all states, including high-spin ones. The ratios of the reduced probabilities for the E2 transitions in question are compared with results following frommore » the Alaga rules. These comparisons make it possible to assess the sensitivity of the probabilities being considered to the presence of quadrupole deformations.« less

Risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio tests: applications to Bristol, Shipman and adult cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Spiegelhalter, David; Grigg, Olivia; Kinsman, Robin; Treasure, Tom

2003-02-01

To investigate the use of the risk-adjusted sequential probability ratio test in monitoring the cumulative occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Retrospective analysis of three longitudinal datasets. Patients aged 65 years and over under the care of Harold Shipman between 1979 and 1997, patients under 1 year of age undergoing paediatric heart surgery in Bristol Royal Infirmary between 1984 and 1995, adult patients receiving cardiac surgery from a team of cardiac surgeons in London,UK. Annual and 30-day mortality rates. Using reasonable boundaries, the procedure could have indicated an 'alarm' in Bristol after publication of the 1991 Cardiac Surgical Register, and in 1985 or 1997 for Harold Shipman depending on the data source and the comparator. The cardiac surgeons showed no significant deviation from expected performance. The risk-adjusted sequential probability test is simple to implement, can be applied in a variety of contexts, and might have been useful to detect specific instances of past divergent performance. The use of this and related techniques deserves further attention in the context of prospectively monitoring adverse clinical outcomes.

Outage Probability of MRC for κ-μ Shadowed Fading Channels under Co-Channel Interference.

PubMed

Chen, Changfang; Shu, Minglei; Wang, Yinglong; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Chongqing

2016-01-01

In this paper, exact closed-form expressions are derived for the outage probability (OP) of the maximal ratio combining (MRC) scheme in the κ-μ shadowed fading channels, in which both the independent and correlated shadowing components are considered. The scenario assumes the received desired signals are corrupted by the independent Rayleigh-faded co-channel interference (CCI) and background white Gaussian noise. To this end, first, the probability density function (PDF) of the κ-μ shadowed fading distribution is obtained in the form of a power series. Then the incomplete generalized moment-generating function (IG-MGF) of the received signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) is derived in the closed form. By using the IG-MGF results, closed-form expressions for the OP of MRC scheme are obtained over the κ-μ shadowed fading channels. Simulation results are included to validate the correctness of the analytical derivations. These new statistical results can be applied to the modeling and analysis of several wireless communication systems, such as body centric communications.

Outage Probability of MRC for κ-μ Shadowed Fading Channels under Co-Channel Interference

PubMed Central

Chen, Changfang; Shu, Minglei; Wang, Yinglong; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Chongqing

2016-01-01

In this paper, exact closed-form expressions are derived for the outage probability (OP) of the maximal ratio combining (MRC) scheme in the κ-μ shadowed fading channels, in which both the independent and correlated shadowing components are considered. The scenario assumes the received desired signals are corrupted by the independent Rayleigh-faded co-channel interference (CCI) and background white Gaussian noise. To this end, first, the probability density function (PDF) of the κ-μ shadowed fading distribution is obtained in the form of a power series. Then the incomplete generalized moment-generating function (IG-MGF) of the received signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio (SINR) is derived in the closed form. By using the IG-MGF results, closed-form expressions for the OP of MRC scheme are obtained over the κ-μ shadowed fading channels. Simulation results are included to validate the correctness of the analytical derivations. These new statistical results can be applied to the modeling and analysis of several wireless communication systems, such as body centric communications. PMID:27851817

Systematic investigation of cluster radioactivity for uranium isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seif, W. M.; Amer, Laila H.

2018-01-01

The most probable cluster decays that can be observed for 217-238U isotopes are investigated. We identified the more-probable decays that commonly manifest themselves via cold valleys in the driving potentials with respect to the mass number and the atomic number, individually. The calculations are performed using the Skyrme-SLy4 nucleon-nucleon interaction, within the frame work of the performed cluster model. Among the indicated favored decays that involve emitted light clusters heavier than α-particle, twenty six decay modes display calculated half-life less than 1022 years, with branching ratio larger than 10-14%. The estimated branching ratio for the α-decay of 237U, that did not observed yet, is B = 2.1 ×10-10% (Tα = 8.7 ×109 years). The indicated most probable decays that did not observed yet include the 22Ne decay of 232U, 25Ne and 32Si decays of 233U, 24Ne and 29Mg decays of 235U, and the 34Si and 30Mg decay modes of 238U, with 10-14 < B(%) <10-7.

Multicentric study on malignant pleural mesothelioma and non-occupational exposure to asbestos

PubMed Central

Magnani, C; Agudo, A; González, C A; Andrion, A; Calleja, A; Chellini, E; Dalmasso, P; Escolar, A; Hernandez, S; Ivaldi, C; Mirabelli, D; Ramirez, J; Turuguet, D; Usel, M; Terracini, B

2000-01-01

Insufficient evidence exists on the risk of pleural mesothelioma from non-occupational exposure to asbestos. A population-based case–control study was carried out in six areas from Italy, Spain and Switzerland. Information was collected for 215 new histologically confirmed cases and 448 controls. A panel of industrial hygienists assessed asbestos exposure separately for occupational, domestic and environmental sources. Classification of domestic and environmental exposure was based on a complete residential history, presence and use of asbestos at home, asbestos industrial activities in the surrounding area, and their distance from the dwelling. In 53 cases and 232 controls without evidence of occupational exposure to asbestos, moderate or high probability of domestic exposure was associated with an increased risk adjusted by age and sex: odds ratio (OR) 4.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8–13.1. This corresponds to three situations: cleaning asbestos-contaminated clothes, handling asbestos material and presence of asbestos material susceptible to damage. The estimated OR for high probability of environmental exposure (living within 2000 m of asbestos mines, asbestos cement plants, asbestos textiles, shipyards, or brakes factories) was 11.5 (95% CI 3.5–38.2). Living between 2000 and 5000 m from asbestos industries or within 500 m of industries using asbestos could also be associated with an increased risk. A dose–response pattern appeared with intensity of both sources of exposure. It is suggested that low-dose exposure to asbestos at home or in the general environment carries a measurable risk of malignant pleural mesothelioma. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign PMID:10883677

Sarcoidosis diagnostic score (SDS): a systematic evaluation to enhance the diagnosis of sarcoidosis.

PubMed

Bickett, Alexandra N; Lower, Elyse E; Baughman, Robert P

2018-05-17

The diagnosis of sarcoidosis is made by the combination of clinical features and biopsy results. The clinical features of sarcoidosis can be quite variable. We developed a Sarcoidosis Diagnostic Score (SDS) to summarize the clinical features of possible sarcoidosis patients. Biopsy confirmed sarcoidosis patients seen during a seven-month time period at the University of Cincinnati Sarcoidosis clinic were prospectively identified. Non-sarcoidosis patients seen at the same clinic were used as controls. Using a modified WASOG organ assessment instrument, we scored all patients for presence of biopsy, one or more highly probable symptom, and one or more at least probable symptom for each area. Two sarcoidosis scores were generated: SDS biopsy (with biopsy) and SDS clinical (without biopsy). The 980 evaluable patients were divided into two cohorts: an initial 600 patients (450 biopsy confirmed sarcoidosis, 150 controls) to establish cut-off values for SDS biopsy and SDS clinical and a validation cohort of 380 patients (103 biopsy confirmed sarcoidosis patients and 277 controls). The best cutoff value for SDS biopsy was > 6 (sensitivity =99.3%; specificity=100%). For the total the 980 patients, an SDS clinical > 3 had a sensitivity of 94.2%, specificity of 88.8%, and a likelihood ratio of 7.9. An SDS clinical score > 4 had a lower sensitivity of (76.9%) but higher specificity (98.6%). For sarcoidosis, the presence of specific clinical features, especially multi-organ involvement, can enhance the diagnostic certainty. The SDS scoring system quantitated the clinical features consistent with sarcoidosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Probability of failure prediction for step-stress fatigue under sine or random stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lambert, R. G.

1979-01-01

A previously proposed cumulative fatigue damage law is extended to predict the probability of failure or fatigue life for structural materials with S-N fatigue curves represented as a scatterband of failure points. The proposed law applies to structures subjected to sinusoidal or random stresses and includes the effect of initial crack (i.e., flaw) sizes. The corrected cycle ratio damage function is shown to have physical significance.

Radiotherapy of soft tissue sarcomas in dogs.

PubMed

McChesney, S L; Withrow, S J; Gillette, E L; Powers, B E; Dewhirst, M W

1989-01-01

Megavoltage radiotherapy was administered to 42 dogs with soft tissue sarcoma. Acceptable local control of these aggressive tumors was achieved after one year of treatment. Control rates of 48 and 67% were obtained at doses of 45 and 50 gray (Gy), respectively. At 2 years, control rates decreased to 33% at the dose of 50 Gy. Serious complications developed in 4 of 42 dogs at doses of 40 to 50 Gy. The estimated dose with a 50% probability for causing serious complications was 54 Gy, given in 10 fractions. We believe that the large doses per fraction used in this study probably led to an increased probability for necrosis. Hemangiopericytomas seemed to be more responsive than fibrosarcomas. Only 2 of 11 recurrent tumors were controlled with surgery. Good local control was achieved with radiation alone for one year at doses with a low probability for serious complications; however, higher total radiation doses or combined modalities, such as surgery and radiation or radiation and hyperthermia, may be needed for longer-term control.

Adolescent perceptions of maternal approval of birth control and sexual risk behavior.

PubMed

Jaccard, J; Dittus, P J

2000-09-01

This study examined the relationship between adolescent perceptions of maternal approval of the use of birth control and sexual outcomes across a 12-month period. A subsample of the Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health database was used in the context of a prospective design. Approximately 10,000 students in grades 7 to 11 were interviewed twice, 1 year apart. Adolescent perceptions of maternal approval of birth control were associated with an increased likelihood of sexual intercourse over the next 12 months for virgins at wave 1. The perceptions also were related to an increase in birth control use but showed an ambiguous relation to the probability of pregnancy. High relationship satisfaction between adolescents and mothers was associated with a higher probability of birth control use and a lower probability of both sexual intercourse and pregnancy. The results suggest that perceived parental approval of birth control may increase the probability of sexual activity in some adolescents. "Safer sex" messages must be conveyed by parents with thought and care.

New insights into galaxy structure from GALPHAT- I. Motivation, methodology and benchmarks for Sérsic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Ilsang; Weinberg, Martin D.; Katz, Neal

2011-06-01

We introduce a new galaxy image decomposition tool, GALPHAT (GALaxy PHotometric ATtributes), which is a front-end application of the Bayesian Inference Engine (BIE), a parallel Markov chain Monte Carlo package, to provide full posterior probability distributions and reliable confidence intervals for all model parameters. The BIE relies on GALPHAT to compute the likelihood function. GALPHAT generates scale-free cumulative image tables for the desired model family with precise error control. Interpolation of this table yields accurate pixellated images with any centre, scale and inclination angle. GALPHAT then rotates the image by position angle using a Fourier shift theorem, yielding high-speed, accurate likelihood computation. We benchmark this approach using an ensemble of simulated Sérsic model galaxies over a wide range of observational conditions: the signal-to-noise ratio S/N, the ratio of galaxy size to the point spread function (PSF) and the image size, and errors in the assumed PSF; and a range of structural parameters: the half-light radius re and the Sérsic index n. We characterize the strength of parameter covariance in the Sérsic model, which increases with S/N and n, and the results strongly motivate the need for the full posterior probability distribution in galaxy morphology analyses and later inferences. The test results for simulated galaxies successfully demonstrate that, with a careful choice of Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and fast model image generation, GALPHAT is a powerful analysis tool for reliably inferring morphological parameters from a large ensemble of galaxies over a wide range of different observational conditions.

Probabilistic analysis of preload in the abutment screw of a dental implant complex.

PubMed

Guda, Teja; Ross, Thomas A; Lang, Lisa A; Millwater, Harry R

2008-09-01

Screw loosening is a problem for a percentage of implants. A probabilistic analysis to determine the cumulative probability distribution of the preload, the probability of obtaining an optimal preload, and the probabilistic sensitivities identifying important variables is lacking. The purpose of this study was to examine the inherent variability of material properties, surface interactions, and applied torque in an implant system to determine the probability of obtaining desired preload values and to identify the significant variables that affect the preload. Using software programs, an abutment screw was subjected to a tightening torque and the preload was determined from finite element (FE) analysis. The FE model was integrated with probabilistic analysis software. Two probabilistic analysis methods (advanced mean value and Monte Carlo sampling) were applied to determine the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of preload. The coefficient of friction, elastic moduli, Poisson's ratios, and applied torque were modeled as random variables and defined by probability distributions. Separate probability distributions were determined for the coefficient of friction in well-lubricated and dry environments. The probabilistic analyses were performed and the cumulative distribution of preload was determined for each environment. A distinct difference was seen between the preload probability distributions generated in a dry environment (normal distribution, mean (SD): 347 (61.9) N) compared to a well-lubricated environment (normal distribution, mean (SD): 616 (92.2) N). The probability of obtaining a preload value within the target range was approximately 54% for the well-lubricated environment and only 0.02% for the dry environment. The preload is predominately affected by the applied torque and coefficient of friction between the screw threads and implant bore at lower and middle values of the preload CDF, and by the applied torque and the elastic modulus of the abutment screw at high values of the preload CDF. Lubrication at the threaded surfaces between the abutment screw and implant bore affects the preload developed in the implant complex. For the well-lubricated surfaces, only approximately 50% of implants will have preload values within the generally accepted range. This probability can be improved by applying a higher torque than normally recommended or a more closely controlled torque than typically achieved. It is also suggested that materials with higher elastic moduli be used in the manufacture of the abutment screw to achieve a higher preload.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Effect of Epimedium extract on osteoprotegerin and RANKL mRNA expressions in glucocorticoid-induced femoral head necrosis in rats].

PubMed

Wang, Jian-zhong; Gao, Hong-yan; Wang, Kun-zheng; Zhou, Rong-xing; Li, Xiao-dong; Guo, Jun; Lv, Hui-cheng

2011-10-01

To investigate the effect of glucocorticoid on the expression levels of osteoprotegerin (OPG) and receptor activator of nuclear factor kappa B ligand (RANKL) mRNAs in rat femoral head and the antagonistic effect of Epimedium, and explore the mechanism of Epimedium in preventing glucocorticoid-induced femoral head necrosis. Forty-eight adult SD rats were randomized into glucocorticoid group, Epimedium group and control group. In the former two groups, the rats received intramuscular injection of 12.5 mg prednisolone twice a week, and in Epimedium group, additional 1 ml/100 g aqueous Epimedium extract (equivalent to 0.1 g/ml of the crude drug) was administered intragastrically once daily. The control group received only intramuscular saline injection. After 4 weeks of treatment, osteonecrosis of the left femoral head was detected by HE staining, and the right femoral head was sampled for detection of OPG and RANKL mRNA expressions using real-time quantitative PCR. In glucocorticoid, Epimedium and control groups, the mortality rate of the rats was 12.5% (2/16), 6.25% (1/16), 0 (0/16), and femoral head necrosis occurred at a rate of 71.43% (10/14), 26.67% (4/15), and 0 (0/16), respectively. In glucocorticoid group, the expression level of OPG mRNA was significantly lower, RANKL expression significantly higher, and OPG/RANKL ratio significantly lower than those in Epimedium and control groups (P<0.05). OPG, RANKL and their ratios showed no significant differences between Epimedium group and the control group. Epimedium can prevent glucocorticoid-induced femoral head necrosis probably by antagonizing glucocorticiod-induced abnormal expressions of OPG and RANKL mRNA.

Metal ion levels in patients with stainless steel spinal instrumentation.

PubMed

McPhee, I Bruce; Swanson, Cheryl E

2007-08-15

Case-control study. To determine whether metal ion concentrations are elevated in patients with spinal instrumentation. Studies have shown that serum and urinary levels of component metal ions are abnormally elevated in patients with total joint arthroplasties. Little is known of metal ion release and concentrations in patients with spinal instrumentation. The study group consisted of patients who had undergone spinal instrumentation for various spinal disorders with a variety of stainless steel implants, 5 to 25 years previously. A group of volunteers without metal implants were controls. All subjects were tested for serum nickel, blood chromium, and random urine chromium/creatinine ratio estimation. The study group consisted of 32 patients with retained implants and 12 patients whose implants had been removed. There were 26 unmatched controls. There was no difference in serum nickel and blood chromium levels between all 3 groups. The mean urinary chromium/creatinine ratio for patients with implants and those with implants removed was significantly greater than controls (P < 0.001). The difference between study subgroups was not significant (P = 0.16). Of several patient and instrumentation variables, only the number of couplings approached significance for correlation with the urine chromium excretion (P = 0.07). Spinal implants do not raise the levels of serum nickel and blood chromium. There is evidence that metal ions are released from spinal implants and excreted in urine. The excretion of chromium in patients with spinal implants was significantly greater than normal controls although lower where the implants have been removed. The findings are consistent with low-grade release of ions from implants with rapid clearance, thus maintaining normal serum levels. Levels of metal ions in the body fluids probably do not reach a level that causes late side-effect; hence, routine removal of the implants cannot be recommended.

Effectiveness of assistive technology in improving the safety of people with dementia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Brims, Lucy; Oliver, Kathryn

2018-04-10

Assistive technology (AT) may enable people with dementia to live safely at home for longer, preventing care home admission. This systematic review assesses the effectiveness of AT in improving the safety of people with dementia living in the domestic setting, by searching for randomised controlled trials, non-randomised controlled trials and controlled before-after studies which compared safety AT with treatment as usual. Measures of safety include care home admission; risky behaviours, accidents and falls at home; and numbers of deaths. The review updates the safety aspect of Fleming and Sum's 2014 systematic review. Seven bibliographic databases, the Social Care Institute for Excellence website and the Alzheimer's Society website were searched for published and unpublished literature between 2011-2016. Search terms related to AT, dementia and older people. Common outcomes were meta-analysed. Three randomised controlled trials were identified, including 245 people with dementia. No significant differences were found between intervention and control groups in care home admission (risk ratio 0.85 95% CI [0.37, 1.97]; Z = 0.37; p = 0.71). The probability of a fall occurring was 50% lower in the intervention group (risk ratio 0.50 95% CI [0.32, 0.78]; Z = 3.03; p = 0.002). One included study found that a home safety package containing AT significantly reduced risky behaviour and accidents (F(45) = 4.504, p < 0.001). Limitations include the few studies found and the inclusion of studies in English only. AT's effectiveness in decreasing care home admission is inconclusive. However, the AT items and packages tested improved safety through reducing falls risk, accidents and other risky behaviour.

The association between cinacalcet use and missed in-center hemodialysis treatment rate.

PubMed

Brunelli, Steven M; Sibbel, Scott; Dluzniewski, Paul J; Cooper, Kerry; Bensink, Mark E; Bradbury, Brian D

2016-11-01

Missed in-center hemodialysis treatments (MHT) are a general indicator of health status in hemodialysis patients. This analysis was conducted to estimate the association between cinacalcet use and MHT rate. We studied patients receiving hemodialysis and prescription benefits services from a large dialysis organization. Incident cinacalcet users were propensity score matched to controls on 31 demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. We applied inverse probability (IP) of censoring and crossover weights to account for informative censoring. Weighted negative binomial modeling was used to estimate MHT rates and pooled logistics models were used to estimate the association between cinacalcet use and MHT. Baseline demographic and clinical variables included serum calcium, phosphorus, parathyroid hormone, and vitamin D use, and were balanced between 15,474 new cinacalcet users and 15,474 matched controls. In an analysis based on intention-to-treat principles, 40.8% of cinacalcet users and 46.5% of nonusers were censored. MHT rate was 13% lower among cinacalcet initiators versus controls: IP of censoring weighted incidence rate ratio was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.84-0.90 p < 0.001). In analyses based on as-treated principles, 72.8% and 61.5% of cinacalcet users and nonusers, respectively, crossed over or were censored. MHT rate was 15% lower among cinacalcet initiators versus controls: IP of censoring/crossover weighted incidence rate ratio was 0.85 (95%CI: 0.82-0.87 p < 0.001). After controlling for indication and differential censoring, cinacalcet treatment was associated with lower MHT rates, which may reflect better health status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Women's health: explaining the trend in gender ratio in Iran over half a century (1956-2006).

PubMed

Farzadi, F; Ahmadi, B; Shariati, B; Alimohamadian, M; Mohamad, K

2010-02-01

Changes in gender ratio generally reflect differences in mortality rates in men and women. Female mortality rates, on the other hand, can be used as an index of the trends in women's health. This study looks at the trend in the population gender ratio from 1956 to 2006, with a focus on analysing mortality rates and hence the overall health of Iranian women over the last 50 years. Cohort-type analysis using data from the last five population censuses in Iran. Data were used to calculate gender ratios and analyse their trends over the 50-year period from 1956 to 2006. According to the 1956 Census, there were 98 men for every 100 women in the 25-34 years age group (male:female ratio=0.98). In the next census, conducted 10 years later (1966), the gender ratio increased to 121 in the 39-44 years age group. The discrepancy increased in later censuses; this trend indicates that mortality in the 25-34 years age group was significantly higher in 1956-1966 compared with subsequent decades. The social and economic crises of the 1940s probably left women of reproductive age exceptionally vulnerable to a wide range of adverse health outcomes. The fact that the trend ceased in 1976 with no further increase in the gender ratio may be due to improving social conditions and greater effectiveness of healthcare programmes directed at women. As life expectancy is calculated on the basis of the conditional probability of death over specific intervals, the apparent discrepancy between the current gender ratios and life expectancy data may be due to higher female death rates before 1976. Copyright 2010 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-deployment screening for mental disorders and tailored advice about help-seeking in the UK military: a cluster randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rona, Roberto J; Burdett, Howard; Khondoker, Mizanur; Chesnokov, Melanie; Green, Kevin; Pernet, David; Jones, Norman; Greenberg, Neil; Wessely, Simon; Fear, Nicola T

2017-04-08

The effectiveness of post-deployment screening for mental disorders has not been assessed in a randomised controlled trial. We aimed to assess whether post-deployment screening for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, anxiety, or alcohol misuse was effective. We defined screening as the presumptive identification of a previously unrecognised disorder using tests to distinguish those who probably had the disorder from those who probably did not so that those people with a probable disorder could be referred appropriately, and assessed effectiveness and consequences for help-seeking by the odds ratio at follow-up between those receiving tailored help-seeking advice and those who received general mental health advice. We did a cluster randomised controlled trial among Royal Marines and Army personnel in the UK military after deployment to Afghanistan. Platoons were randomly assigned (1:1 initially, then 2:1) by stratified block randomisation with randomly varying block sizes of two and four to the screening group, which received tailored help-seeking advice, or the control group, which received general mental health advice. Initial assessment took place 6-12 weeks after deployment; follow-up assessments were done 10-24 months later. Follow-up measures were the PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version, Patient Health Questionnaire-9, Generalised Anxiety Disorder-7 scale, Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT), and self-reported help-seeking from clinical and welfare providers comparing those receiving tailored advice and those receiving only general advice. All participants and all investigators other than the person who analysed the data were masked to allocation. The primary outcomes were PTSD, depression or generalised anxiety disorder, and alcohol misuse at follow-up. A key secondary outcome was assessment of whether post-deployment screening followed by tailored advice would modify help-seeking behaviour. Comparisons were made between screening and control groups, with primary analyses by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, number ISRCTN19965528. Between Oct 24, 2011, and Oct 31, 2014, 434 platoons comprising 10 190 personnel were included: 274 (6350 personnel) in the screening group and 160 (3840 personnel) in the control group. 5577 (88%) of 6350 personnel received screening and 3996 (63%) completed follow-up, whereas 3149 (82%) of 3840 received the control questionnaire and 2369 (62%) completed follow-up. 1958 (35%) of 5577 personnel in the screening group declined to see the tailored advice, but those with PTSD (83%) or anxiety or depression (84%) were more likely than non-cases (64%) to view the advice (both p<0·0001). At follow-up, there were no significant differences in prevalence between groups for PTSD (adjusted odds ratio 0·92, 95% CI 0·75-1·14), depression or anxiety (0·91, 0·71-1·16), alcohol misuse (0·88, 0·73-1·06), or seeking support for mental disorders (0·92, 0·78-1·08). Post-deployment screening for mental disorders based on tailored advice was not effective at reducing prevalence of mental health disorders nor did it increase help-seeking. Countries that have implemented post-deployment screening programmes for mental disorders should consider monitoring the outcomes of their programmes. The US Army Medical Research and Materiel Command-Military Operational Medicine Research Program (USAMRMC-MOMRP). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent meta-analyses neglect previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses about the same topic: a systematic examination.

PubMed

Helfer, Bartosz; Prosser, Aaron; Samara, Myrto T; Geddes, John R; Cipriani, Andrea; Davis, John M; Mavridis, Dimitris; Salanti, Georgia; Leucht, Stefan

2015-04-14

As the number of systematic reviews is growing rapidly, we systematically investigate whether meta-analyses published in leading medical journals present an outline of available evidence by referring to previous meta-analyses and systematic reviews. We searched PubMed for recent meta-analyses of pharmacological treatments published in high impact factor journals. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses were identified with electronic searches of keywords and by searching reference sections. We analyzed the number of meta-analyses and systematic reviews that were cited, described and discussed in each recent meta-analysis. Moreover, we investigated publication characteristics that potentially influence the referencing practices. We identified 52 recent meta-analyses and 242 previous meta-analyses on the same topics. Of these, 66% of identified previous meta-analyses were cited, 36% described, and only 20% discussed by recent meta-analyses. The probability of citing a previous meta-analysis was positively associated with its publication in a journal with a higher impact factor (odds ratio, 1.49; 95% confidence interval, 1.06 to 2.10) and more recent publication year (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.37). Additionally, the probability of a previous study being described by the recent meta-analysis was inversely associated with the concordance of results (odds ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.17 to 0.88), and the probability of being discussed was increased for previous studies that employed meta-analytic methods (odds ratio, 32.36; 95% confidence interval, 2.00 to 522.85). Meta-analyses on pharmacological treatments do not consistently refer to and discuss findings of previous meta-analyses on the same topic. Such neglect can lead to research waste and be confusing for readers. Journals should make the discussion of related meta-analyses mandatory.

No compelling positive association between ovarian hormones and wearing red clothing when using multinomial analyses.

PubMed

Blake, Khandis R; Dixson, Barnaby J W; O'Dean, Siobhan M; Denson, Thomas F

2017-04-01

Several studies report that wearing red clothing enhances women's attractiveness and signals sexual proceptivity to men. The associated hypothesis that women will choose to wear red clothing when fertility is highest, however, has received mixed support from empirical studies. One possible cause of these mixed findings may be methodological. The current study aimed to replicate recent findings suggesting a positive association between hormonal profiles associated with high fertility (high estradiol to progesterone ratios) and the likelihood of wearing red. We compared the effect of the estradiol to progesterone ratio on the probability of wearing: red versus non-red (binary logistic regression); red versus neutral, black, blue, green, orange, multi-color, and gray (multinomial logistic regression); and each of these same colors in separate binary models (e.g., green versus non-green). Red versus non-red analyses showed a positive trend between a high estradiol to progesterone ratio and wearing red, but the effect only arose for younger women and was not robust across samples. We found no compelling evidence for ovarian hormones increasing the probability of wearing red in the other analyses. However, we did find that the probability of wearing neutral was positively associated with the estradiol to progesterone ratio, though the effect did not reach conventional levels of statistical significance. Findings suggest that although ovarian hormones may affect younger women's preference for red clothing under some conditions, the effect is not robust when differentiating amongst other colors of clothing. In addition, the effect of ovarian hormones on clothing color preference may not be specific to the color red. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sex inequality in kidney transplantation rates.

PubMed

Schaubel, D E; Stewart, D E; Morrison, H I; Zimmerman, D L; Cameron, J I; Jeffery, J J; Fenton, S S

Men in the United States undergoing renal replacement therapy are more likely than women to receive a kidney transplant. However, the ability to pay may, in part, be responsible for this finding. To compare adult male and female transplantation rates in a setting in which equal access to medical treatment is assumed. Using data from the Canadian Organ Replacement Register, the rate of first transplantations was computed for the 20, 131 men and the 13,458 women aged 20 years or older who initiated renal replacement therapy between January 1, 1981, and December 31, 1996. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the male-female transplantation rate ratio, adjusting for age, race, province, calendar period, underlying disease leading to renal failure, and dialytic modality. Actuarial survival methods were used to compare transplantation probability for covariable-matched cohorts of men and women. Men experienced 20% greater covariable-adjusted kidney transplantation rates relative to women (rate ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.27). The sex disparity was stronger for cadaveric transplants (rate ratio, 1.23) compared with those from living donors (rate ratio, 1.10). The 5-year probability of receiving a transplant was 47% for men and 39% for women within covariable-matched cohorts (P<.001). The sex disparity in transplantation rates increased with increasing age. The sex effect was weaker among whites and Oriental persons (Chinese, Japanese, Vietnamese, Cambodian, Laotian, Filipino, Malaysian, Indonesian, and Korean) and stronger among blacks, Asian Indians (Indian, Pakistani, and Sri Lankan), and North American Indians (aboriginal). Since survival probability and quality of life are superior for patients who undergo transplantation relative to those who undergo dialysis, an increased effort should be made to distribute kidneys available for transplantation more equitably by sex among patients undergoing renal replacement therapy.

Cost-utility of ranolazine for the symptomatic treatment of patients with chronic angina pectoris in Spain.

PubMed

Hidalgo-Vega, Alvaro; Ramos-Goñi, Juan Manuel; Villoro, Renata

2014-12-01

Ranolazine is an antianginal agent that was approved in the EU in 2008 as an add-on therapy for symptomatic chronic angina pectoris treatment in patients who are inadequately controlled by, or are intolerant to, first-line antianginal therapies. These patients' quality of life is significantly affected by more frequent angina events, which increase the risk of revascularization. To assess the cost-utility of ranolazine versus placebo as an add-on therapy for the symptomatic treatment of patients with chronic angina pectoris in Spain. A decision tree model with 1-year time horizon was designed. Transition probabilities and utility values for different angina frequencies were obtained from the literature. Costs were obtained from Spanish official DRGs for patients with chronic angina pectoris. We calculated the incremental cost-utility ratio of using ranolazine compared with a placebo. Sensitivity analyses, by means of Monte Carlo simulations, were performed. Acceptability curves and expected value of perfect information were calculated. The incremental cost-utility ratio was €8,455 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) per patient in Spain. Sensitivity analyses showed that if the decision makers' willingness to pay is €15,000 per QALY, the treatment with ranolazine will be cost effective at a 95 % level of confidence. The incremental cost-utility ratio is particularly sensitive to changes in utility values of those non-hospitalized patients with mild or moderate angina frequency. Ranolazine is a highly efficient add-on therapy for the symptomatic treatment of chronic angina pectoris in patients who are inadequately controlled by, or intolerant to, first-line antianginal therapies in Spain.

Permafrost and land cover as controlling factors for light fraction organic matter on the southern Qinghai-Tibetan plateau.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaodong; Zhao, Lin; Hu, Guojie; Liu, Guimin; Li, Wangping; Ding, Yongjian

2018-02-01

Permafrost degradation can stimulate the decomposition of organic soil matter and cause a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The light fraction organic matter (LFOM) is a labile substrate for microbial decomposition and probably plays an important role in future permafrost carbon cycles. However, little is known about the distribution of LFOM and its relationship with permafrost and environmental factors. Here, we investigated the light fraction carbon (LFC) and nitrogen (LFN) contents and stocks under meadows and wet meadows with different permafrost conditions on the southern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our results showed that LFC and LFN were mainly distributed in the upper 30cm of soils, and the sites with permafrost had significantly higher contents of LFC and LFN than those from the sites without existing permafrost. The LFC and LFN decreased sharply with depth, suggesting that the soil organic matter (SOM) in this area was highly decomposed in deep soils. Soil moisture and bulk density explained approximately 50% of the variances in LFC and LFN for all the sampling sites, while soil moisture explained approximately 30% of the variance in permafrost sites. Both the C:N ratios and LFC:LFN ratios in the sites with permafrost were higher than those in the sites without permafrost. The results suggested that the permafrost and land cover types are the main factors controlling LFOM content and stock, and that permafrost degradation would lead to a decrease of LFOM and soil C:N ratios, thus accelerating the decomposition of SOM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Effect of anshen jielu recipe in intervening cerebral metabolism in rats with generalized anxiety disorder using magnetic resonance spectroscopy].

PubMed

Tang, Qi-sheng; Li, Ning; Luo, Bin

2011-01-01

To study the metabolic change in brain of rats with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and the intervention effect with Anshen Jielu Recipe (AJR) on it. Eight rats selected from 32 Wistar rats as normal group, the others were established as GAD model by using uncertainty empty water bottles method. Then the GAD rats were randomly divided into the model group (saline, by gastrogavage), the control group [buspirone hydrochloride, 2.0 mg/(kg x d), by gastrogavage], the treatment group [AJR, 12.5 g/(kg x d), by gastrogavage], 8 in each group, all were treated for 7 days. The concentration of cerebral metabolites, including N-acetyl aspartate (NAA), choline (Cho), creatine (Cr) and glutamate (Glu), in bilateral prefrontal cortex and hippocampus were measured using high-field strong super-conductivity (7.0T) animal MRI; and the ratio of NAA/Cr, Cho/Cr and Glu/Cr were calculated. The effect of AJR intervention was evaluated by changes of MRI before and after rats being treated with AJR for 7 days. Rats with GAD showed lowered ratios of NAA/Cr and Cho/Cr, and elevated Glu/Cr ratio in the right prefrontal cortex than those in normal rats. After AJR intervention, the abnormal changes in the three indices were restored to certain extents. AJR has apparent antianxiety effect in rats with GAD, with the effect initiation faster than that in the control group. Its mechanism is probably correlated with the regulation of abnormal metabolism in the brain.

Sampling the stream landscape: Improving the applicability of an ecoregion-level capture probability model for stream fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Mouser, Joshua B.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Temporal and spatial variability in streams result in heterogeneous gear capture probability (i.e., the proportion of available individuals identified) that confounds interpretation of data used to monitor fish abundance. We modeled tow-barge electrofishing capture probability at multiple spatial scales for nine Ozark Highland stream fishes. In addition to fish size, we identified seven reach-scale environmental characteristics associated with variable capture probability: stream discharge, water depth, conductivity, water clarity, emergent vegetation, wetted width–depth ratio, and proportion of riffle habitat. The magnitude of the relationship between capture probability and both discharge and depth varied among stream fishes. We also identified lithological characteristics among stream segments as a coarse-scale source of variable capture probability. The resulting capture probability model can be used to adjust catch data and derive reach-scale absolute abundance estimates across a wide range of sampling conditions with similar effort as used in more traditional fisheries surveys (i.e., catch per unit effort). Adjusting catch data based on variable capture probability improves the comparability of data sets, thus promoting both well-informed conservation and management decisions and advances in stream-fish ecology.

Faster Blood Flow Rate Does Not Improve Circuit Life in Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Fealy, Nigel; Aitken, Leanne; du Toit, Eugene; Lo, Serigne; Baldwin, Ian

2017-10-01

To determine whether blood flow rate influences circuit life in continuous renal replacement therapy. Prospective randomized controlled trial. Single center tertiary level ICU. Critically ill adults requiring continuous renal replacement therapy. Patients were randomized to receive one of two blood flow rates: 150 or 250 mL/min. The primary outcome was circuit life measured in hours. Circuit and patient data were collected until each circuit clotted or was ceased electively for nonclotting reasons. Data for clotted circuits are presented as median (interquartile range) and compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. Survival probability for clotted circuits was compared using log-rank test. Circuit clotting data were analyzed for repeated events using hazards ratio. One hundred patients were randomized with 96 completing the study (150 mL/min, n = 49; 250 mL/min, n = 47) using 462 circuits (245 run at 150 mL/min and 217 run at 250 mL/min). Median circuit life for first circuit (clotted) was similar for both groups (150 mL/min: 9.1 hr [5.5-26 hr] vs 10 hr [4.2-17 hr]; p = 0.37). Continuous renal replacement therapy using blood flow rate set at 250 mL/min was not more likely to cause clotting compared with 150 mL/min (hazards ratio, 1.00 [0.60-1.69]; p = 0.68). Gender, body mass index, weight, vascular access type, length, site, and mode of continuous renal replacement therapy or international normalized ratio had no effect on clotting risk. Continuous renal replacement therapy without anticoagulation was more likely to cause clotting compared with use of heparin strategies (hazards ratio, 1.62; p = 0.003). Longer activated partial thromboplastin time (hazards ratio, 0.98; p = 0.002) and decreased platelet count (hazards ratio, 1.19; p = 0.03) were associated with a reduced likelihood of circuit clotting. There was no difference in circuit life whether using blood flow rates of 250 or 150 mL/min during continuous renal replacement therapy.

Impact of Lightning and Convection on Reactive Nitrogen in the Tropical Free Troposphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kawakami, S.; Kondo, Y.; Koike, M.; Nakajima, H.; Gregory, G. L.; Sachse, G. W.; Newell, R. E.; Browell, E. V.; Blake, D. R.; Rodriquez, J. M.;

Guidelines for rainwater harvesting system design and assessment for the city of Johannesburg, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndiritu, John; Ilemobade, Adesola; Kagoda, Paulo

2018-06-01

As water demand increases rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are increasingly being installed for water supply but comprehensive hydrologic design guidelines for RWH do not exist in many parts of the world. The objective of this study was to develop guidelines for the hydrologic design and assessment of rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems in the City of Johannesburg, South Africa. The data for developing the guidelines were mainly obtained from multiple daily simulations of potential RWH systems in the city. The simulations used daily rainfall from 8 stations and demands based on the probable non-potable uses of RWH systems - toilet flushing, air conditioning and irrigation. The guidelines were confined to systems that would typically fill up in the wet season and empty towards the end of the dry season of the same year. Therefore, supply-to-demand ratios ranging from 0.1 to 0.9 were applied. Two generalized design charts of dimensionless relationships were developed. One relates the yield ratio with supply-to-demand ratio and reliability while the other relates the yield ratio with the storage-to-demand ratio and reliability. Reliability was defined as the probability of exceedance of annual yield in order to incorporate the large inter-annual variability of rainfall experienced in the region. The analyses and design of an example RWH system is used to illustrate the application of the design charts.

Soil-borne microbial functional structure across different land uses.

PubMed

Kuramae, Eiko E; Zhou, Jizhong Z; Kowalchuk, George A; van Veen, Johannes A

2014-01-01

Land use change alters the structure and composition of microbial communities. However, the links between environmental factors and microbial functions are not well understood. Here we interrogated the functional structure of soil microbial communities across different land uses. In a multivariate regression tree analysis of soil physicochemical properties and genes detected by functional microarrays, the main factor that explained the different microbial community functional structures was C : N ratio. C : N ratio showed a significant positive correlation with clay and soil pH. Fields with low C : N ratio had an overrepresentation of genes for carbon degradation, carbon fixation, metal reductase, and organic remediation categories, while fields with high C : N ratio had an overrepresentation of genes encoding dissimilatory sulfate reductase, methane oxidation, nitrification, and nitrogen fixation. The most abundant genes related to carbon degradation comprised bacterial and fungal cellulases; bacterial and fungal chitinases; fungal laccases; and bacterial, fungal, and oomycete polygalacturonases. The high number of genes related to organic remediation was probably driven by high phosphate content, while the high number of genes for nitrification was probably explained by high total nitrogen content. The functional gene diversity found in different soils did not group the sites accordingly to land management. Rather, the soil factors, C : N ratio, phosphate, and total N, were the main factors driving the differences in functional genes across the fields examined.

New Concepts in the Evaluation of Biodegradation/Persistence of Chemical Substances Using a Microbial Inoculum

PubMed Central

Thouand, Gérald; Durand, Marie-José; Maul, Armand; Gancet, Christian; Blok, Han

2011-01-01

The European REACH Regulation (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization of CHemical substances) implies, among other things, the evaluation of the biodegradability of chemical substances produced by industry. A large set of test methods is available including detailed information on the appropriate conditions for testing. However, the inoculum used for these tests constitutes a “black box.” If biodegradation is achievable from the growth of a small group of specific microbial species with the substance as the only carbon source, the result of the test depends largely on the cell density of this group at “time zero.” If these species are relatively rare in an inoculum that is normally used, the likelihood of inoculating a test with sufficient specific cells becomes a matter of probability. Normally this probability increases with total cell density and with the diversity of species in the inoculum. Furthermore the history of the inoculum, e.g., a possible pre-exposure to the test substance or similar substances will have a significant influence on the probability. A high probability can be expected for substances that are widely used and regularly released into the environment, whereas a low probability can be expected for new xenobiotic substances that have not yet been released into the environment. Be that as it may, once the inoculum sample contains sufficient specific degraders, the performance of the biodegradation will follow a typical S shaped growth curve which depends on the specific growth rate under laboratory conditions, the so called F/M ratio (ratio between food and biomass) and the more or less toxic recalcitrant, but possible, metabolites. Normally regulators require the evaluation of the growth curve using a simple approach such as half-time. Unfortunately probability and biodegradation half-time are very often confused. As the half-time values reflect laboratory conditions which are quite different from environmental conditions (after a substance is released), these values should not be used to quantify and predict environmental behavior. The probability value could be of much greater benefit for predictions under realistic conditions. The main issue in the evaluation of probability is that the result is not based on a single inoculum from an environmental sample, but on a variety of samples. These samples can be representative of regional or local areas, climate regions, water types, and history, e.g., pristine or polluted. The above concept has provided us with a new approach, namely “Probabio.” With this approach, persistence is not only regarded as a simple intrinsic property of a substance, but also as the capability of various environmental samples to degrade a substance under realistic exposure conditions and F/M ratio. PMID:21863143

Cost-effectiveness of steroid (methylprednisolone) injections versus anaesthetic alone for the treatment of Morton's neuroma: economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial (MortISE trial).

PubMed

Edwards, Rhiannon Tudor; Yeo, Seow Tien; Russell, Daphne; Thomson, Colin E; Beggs, Ian; Gibson, J N Alastair; McMillan, Diane; Martin, Denis J; Russell, Ian T

2015-01-01

Morton's neuroma is a common foot condition affecting health-related quality of life. Though its management frequently includes steroid injections, evidence of cost-effectiveness is sparse. So, we aimed to evaluate whether steroid injection is cost-effective in treating Morton's neuroma compared with anaesthetic injection alone. We undertook incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses from the perspective of the National Health Service, alongside a patient-blinded pragmatic randomised trial in hospital-based orthopaedic outpatient clinics in Edinburgh, UK. Of the original randomised sample of 131 participants with Morton's neuroma (including 67 controls), economic analysis focused on 109 (including 55 controls). Both groups received injections guided by ultrasound. We estimated the incremental cost per point improvement in the area under the curve of the Foot Health Thermometer (FHT-AUC) until three months after injection. We also conducted cost-utility analyses using European Quality of life-5 Dimensions-3 Levels (EQ-5D-3L), enhanced by the Foot Health Thermometer (FHT), to estimate utility and thus quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The unit cost of an ultrasound-guided steroid injection was £149. Over the three months of follow-up, the mean cost of National Health Service resources was £280 for intervention participants and £202 for control participants - a difference of £79 [bootstrapped 95% confidence interval (CI): £18 to £152]. The corresponding estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £32 per point improvement in the FHT-AUC (bootstrapped 95% CI: £7 to £100). If decision makers value improvement of one point at £100 (the upper limit of this CI), there is 97.5% probability that steroid injection is cost-effective. As EQ-5D-3L seems unresponsive to changes in foot health, we based secondary cost-utility analysis on the FHT-enhanced EQ-5D. This estimated the corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as £6,400 per QALY. Over the recommended UK threshold, ranging from £20,000 to £30,000 per QALY, there is 80%-85% probability that steroid injection is cost-effective. Steroid injections are effective and cost-effective in relieving foot pain measured by the FHT for three months. However, cost-utility analysis was initially inconclusive because the EQ-5D-3L is less responsive than the FHT to changes in foot health. By using the FHT to enhance the EQ-5D, we inferred that injections yield good value in cost per QALY. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13668166.

Meteorology and ethnicity as critical factors in HRIPT: Comparing responses between Chinese and Indian ethnicities.

PubMed

Yuan, Chao; Wang, Xue-Min; Galzote, Carlos; Tan, Yi-Mei; Bhagat, Kamlesh V; Yuan, Zhi-Kang; Du, Jian-Fei; Tan, Yuan

2013-06-01

Human repeated insult patch test (HRIPT) is regarded as one of the confirmatory test in determining the safety of skin sensitizers. A number of important factors should be considered when conducting and interpreting the results of the HRIPT. To investigate for probable critical factors that influence the results of HRIPT with the same protocol in Shanghai and Mumbai. Two HRIPTs were carried out in Shanghai and Mumbai in 2011. Six identical products and 1% sodium lauryl sulfate were tested. Two Chinese dermatologists performed the grading in the two cities. Climate conditions of Shanghai and Mumbai were also recorded. For four lower reaction ratio products, cumulative irritation scores in the induction phase were higher in individuals whose ethnicity was Indian rather than Chinese. Reaction ratio of the same four products was highly correlated to the climatic parameters. The other two higher reaction ratio products and the positive control had no difference between the two ethnicities. Greater attention ought to be paid to the impact of climate on the results of HRIPT, especially for the mild irritation cosmetics when giving the interpretation. Greater emphasis also needs to be placed on the ethnicity of the subjects. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Plasma fatty acids profile and lipids in Tunisian male elite athletes].

PubMed

Omar, Souheil; Sethom, Mohamed M; Feki-Mhiri, Sondes; Hadj-Taeib, Sameh; Ben Ayed, Ikram; Feki, Moncef; Kaabachi, Naziha

2010-05-01

Growing interest is accorded to polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) omega3, which are considered beneficial for health. to investigate the effect of sports on plasma lipids and fatty acids (FAs), especially omega6 and omega3 PUFAs and the omega6/omega3 ratio. The study included 75 Tunisian male elite athletes, practicing team sport and 70 sedentary healthy men as controls. Plasma FAs profile was analyzed by gas chromatography. Comparison between groups was performed using a univariate GLM analysis, with adjustment on age, body mass and energy intake. Athletes showed lower triglycerides and saturated FAs (27.64% +/- 2.17% vs. 30.41% +/- 4.35%) and increased HDL cholesterol and monounsaturated FAs (21.19% +/- 2 44% vs. 19.12% +/- 3.03%). However, there was no significant difference in total PUFAs, omega6 and omega3 families and omega6/omega3 ratio (10.15% +/- 3.24% vs. 10.20% +/- 3.37%) between athletes and sedentary. Sport favorably modifies the profile of plasma FAs by increasing monounsaturated FAs at the expense of saturated FAs, but has no effect on total PUFAs, and omega6 and omega3 families. A diet rich in omega3 PUFAs would lower the omega6/omega3 ratio, in order to improve the health and probably the performance of athletes.

Geologic control of mineral composition of stream waters of the eastern slope of the Southern Coast Ranges, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, G.H.

1961-01-01

Chemical analyses of waters of streams that drain the semiarid eastern slope of the southern Coast Ranges in California demonstrate that differences in the anion composition, especially in the ratio of bicarbonate to sulfate, are related chiefly to the lithologic character of the rocks exposed in the tributary drainage area. Where more than hall the drainage area of a typical eastern-slope stream is underlain by clastic marine sedimentary rocks of Jurassic and Cretaceous age, bicarbonate generally predominates over sulfate; the ratio of bicarbonate to sullate, both expressed in equivalents per million, in samples of the streams at low-flow stage ranges from 0.8 to 6. Conversely, where more than hall the drainage area is underlain by marine and continental deposits of Tertiary age and continental deposits of Quaternary age, sulfate predominates over bicarbonate, and the ratio of bicarbonate to sulfate in samples taken during the low-flow stage ranges from 0.02 to 0.7. Organic siliceous marine shale of Tertiary age deposited in a reducing environment is probably the primary source of sullate in the region. Secondary deposits of sulfate minerals, chiefly gypsum, which are abundant in the continental deposits of late Tertiary and Quaternary age, also contribute sullate to the stream waters.

Validation of measurements of ventilation-to-perfusion ratio inequality in the lung from expired gas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prisk, G. Kim; Guy, Harold J B.; West, John B.; Reed, James W.

2003-01-01

The analysis of the gas in a single expirate has long been used to estimate the degree of ventilation-perfusion (Va/Q) inequality in the lung. To further validate this estimate, we examined three measures of Va/Q inhomogeneity calculated from a single full exhalation in nine anesthetized mongrel dogs under control conditions and after exposure to aerosolized methacholine. These measurements were then compared with arterial blood gases and with measurements of Va/Q inhomogeneity obtained using the multiple inert gas elimination technique. The slope of the instantaneous respiratory exchange ratio (R slope) vs. expired volume was poorly correlated with independent measures, probably because of the curvilinear nature of the relationship due to continuing gas exchange. When R was converted to the intrabreath Va/Q (iV/Q), the best index was the slope of iV/Q vs. volume over phase III (iV/Q slope). This was strongly correlated with independent measures, especially those relating to inhomogeneity of perfusion. The correlations for iV/Q slope and R slope considerably improved when only the first half of phase III was considered. We conclude that a useful noninvasive measurement of Va/Q inhomogeneity can be derived from the intrabreath respiratory exchange ratio.

Fatty acids in sparry calcite fracture fills and microsparite cement of septarian diagenetic concretions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, M. J.; Hendry, J. P.; Taylor, C. W.; Russell, M. A.

2005-04-01

Sparry calcite fracture fills and concretion body cements in concretions from the Flodigarry Shale Member of the Staffin Shale Formation, Isle of Skye, Scotland, entrap and preserve mineral and organic materials of sedimentary and diagenetic origin. Fatty acids are a major component of the lipids recovered by decarbonation and comprise mainly n-alkanoic and α-ω dicarboxylic acids. Two generations of fracture-fill calcite (early brown and later yellow) and the concretion body microspar yield significantly different fatty acid profiles. Early brown calcites yield mainly medium-chain n-alkanoic acids with strong even predominance; later yellow calcites are dominated by α-ω dicarboxylic acids with no even predominance. Both fracture fills lack the long-chain n-alkanoic and α-ω dicarboxylic acids additionally recovered from the concretion bodies. The absence of longer chain acids in the calcite spar fracture fills is inferred to result from the transport of fatty acids by septarian mineralising fluids whereby low-aqueous solubility of longer chain acids or their salts accounts for their relative immobility. Comparative experiments have been carried out using conventional solvent extraction on the concretion body and associated shales, both decarbonated and untreated. Extracted lipid yields are higher, but the fatty acids probably derive from mixed locations in the rock including both kerogen- and carbonate-associated lipid pools. Only experiments involving decarbonation yielded α-ω dicarboxylic acids in molecular distributions probably controlled mainly by fluid transport. Alkane biomarker ratios indicate very low thermal maturity has been experienced by the concretions and their host sediments. Septarian cracks lined by brown calcite formed during early burial. Microbial CO 2 from sulphate-reducing bacteria was probably the main source of mineralising carbonate. Emplacement of the later septarian fills probably involved at least one episode of fluid invasion.

Temporal and spatial distribution of Microcystis biomass and genotype in bloom areas of Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Guan, Dong-Xing; Wang, Xingyu; Xu, Huacheng; Chen, Li; Li, Pengfu; Ma, Lena Q

2018-06-26

Cyanobacterial blooms as a global environmental issue are of public health concern. In this study, we investigated the spatial (10 sites) and temporal (June, August and October) variations in: 1) their biomass based on chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration, 2) their toxic genotype based on gene copy ratio of mcyJ to cpcBA, and 3) their cpcBA genotype composition of Microcystis during cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu. While spatial-temporal variations were found in chl-a and mcyJ/cpcBA ratio, only spatial variation was observed in cpcBA genotype composition. Samples from northwestern part had a higher chl-a, but mcyJ/cpcBA ratio didn't vary among the sites. High chl-a was observed in August, while mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and genotypic richness increased with time. The spatial variations in chl-a and mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and temporal variation in cpcBA genotype were correlated negatively with dissolved N and positively with dissolved P. Spatial distribution of Microcystis biomass was positively correlated with nitrite and P excluding October, but no correlation was found for spatial distribution of mcyJ/cpcBA ratio and cpcBA genotype. Spatial distribution of toxic and cpcBA genotypes may result from horizontal transport of Microcystis colonies, while spatial variation in Microcystis biomass was probably controlled by both nutrient-mediated growth and horizontal transport of Microcystis. The temporal variation in Microcystis biomass, toxic genotype and cpcBA genotype composition were related to nutrient levels, but cause-and-effect relationships require further study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost Effectiveness of Support for People Starting a New Medication for a Long-Term Condition Through Community Pharmacies: An Economic Evaluation of the New Medicine Service (NMS) Compared with Normal Practice.

PubMed

Elliott, Rachel A; Tanajewski, Lukasz; Gkountouras, Georgios; Avery, Anthony J; Barber, Nick; Mehta, Rajnikant; Boyd, Matthew J; Latif, Asam; Chuter, Antony; Waring, Justin

2017-12-01

The English community pharmacy New Medicine Service (NMS) significantly increases patient adherence to medicines, compared with normal practice. We examined the cost effectiveness of NMS compared with normal practice by combining adherence improvement and intervention costs with the effect of increased adherence on patient outcomes and healthcare costs. We developed Markov models for diseases targeted by the NMS (hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and antiplatelet regimens) to assess the impact of patients' non-adherence. Clinical event probability, treatment pathway, resource use and costs were extracted from literature and costing tariffs. Incremental costs and outcomes associated with each disease were incorporated additively into a composite probabilistic model and combined with adherence rates and intervention costs from the trial. Costs per extra quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) were calculated from the perspective of NHS England, using a lifetime horizon. NMS generated a mean of 0.05 (95% CI 0.00-0.13) more QALYs per patient, at a mean reduced cost of -£144 (95% CI -769 to 73). The NMS dominates normal practice with a probability of 0.78 [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) -£3166 per QALY]. NMS has a 96.7% probability of cost effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that targeting each disease with NMS has a probability over 0.90 of cost effectiveness compared with normal practice at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per QALY. Our study suggests that the NMS increased patient medicine adherence compared with normal practice, which translated into increased health gain at reduced overall cost. ClinicalTrials.gov Trial reference number NCT01635361 ( http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01635361 ). Current Controlled trials: Trial reference number ISRCTN 23560818 ( http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN23560818/ ; DOI 10.1186/ISRCTN23560818 ). UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) study 12494 ( http://public.ukcrn.org.uk/Search/StudyDetail.aspx?StudyID=12494 ). Department of Health Policy Research Programme.

Diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease in ethnically diverse highly educated individuals: an analysis of the NACC database.

PubMed

Spering, Cynthia C; Hobson, Valerie; Lucas, John A; Menon, Chloe V; Hall, James R; O'Bryant, Sid E

2012-08-01

To validate and extend the findings of a raised cut score of O'Bryant and colleagues (O'Bryant SE, Humphreys JD, Smith GE, et al. Detecting dementia with the mini-mental state examination in highly educated individuals. Arch Neurol. 2008;65(7):963-967.) for the Mini-Mental State Examination in detecting cognitive dysfunction in a bilingual sample of highly educated ethnically diverse individuals. Archival data were reviewed from participants enrolled in the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center minimum data set. Data on 7,093 individuals with 16 or more years of education were analyzed, including 2,337 cases with probable and possible Alzheimer's disease, 1,418 mild cognitive impairment patients, and 3,088 nondemented controls. Ethnic composition was characterized as follows: 6,296 Caucasians, 581 African Americans, 4 American Indians or Alaska natives, 2 native Hawaiians or Pacific Islanders, 149 Asians, 43 "Other," and 18 of unknown origin. Diagnostic accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratio) of Mini-Mental State Examination cut scores in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease were examined. A standard Mini-Mental State Examination cut score of 24 (≤23) yielded a sensitivity of 0.58 and a specificity of 0.98 in detecting probable and possible Alzheimer's disease across ethnicities. A cut score of 27 (≤26) resulted in an improved balance of sensitivity and specificity (0.79 and 0.90, respectively). In the cognitively impaired group (mild cognitive impairment and probable and possible Alzheimer's disease), the standard cut score yielded a sensitivity of 0.38 and a specificity of 1.00 while raising the cut score to 27 resulted in an improved balance of 0.59 and 0.96 of sensitivity and specificity, respectively. These findings cross-validate our previous work and extend them to an ethnically diverse cohort. A higher cut score is needed to maximize diagnostic accuracy of the Mini-Mental State Examination in individuals with college degrees.

Direct measurement of the 3d{}^{2}{D}_{3/2} to 3d{}^{2}{D}_{5/2} lifetime ratio in a single trapped {}^{40}{{\\rm{Ca}}}^{+}

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, H.; Huang, Y.; Guan, H.; Gao, K.

2018-02-01

We present for the first time a direct measurement of the lifetime ratio between the 3d{}2{D}3/2 and 3d{}2{D}5/2 metastable states in a single trapped 40Ca+. A high-efficiency quantum state detection technique is adopted to monitor the quantum jumps, and a high precision and synchronized measurement sequence is used for laser control to study the rule of spontaneous decay. Our method shows that the lifetime ratio is a constant and is irrelevant to the dwell time; it is only determined by the spontaneous decay probabilities of the two metastable states at one random decay time, independent of the lifetimes of the two metastable states. Systematic errors such as collisions with background gases, heating effects, impurity components, the shelving and pumping rates and the photon counts are analyzed, and the lifetime ratio between the 3d{}2{D}3/2 and 3d{}2{D}5/2 states is directly measured to be 1.0257(43) with an uncertainty of 0.42%. Our result is in good agreement with the most precise many-body atomic structure calculations. Our method can be used to obtain the lifetime of a state which is usually difficult to measure and can be used to determine the magnetic dipole transition matrix elements in heavy ions such as Ba+ and Ra+, and can also be universally applied to lifetime ratio measurements of other single atoms and ions with a similar structure.

Localized rosuvastatin via implantable bioerodible sponge and its potential role in augmenting bone healing and regeneration.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Howida Kamal; Fahmy, Rania Hassan

2016-11-01

Statins proved potential bone healing properties. Rosuvastatin is a synthetic, hydrophilic, potent and highly efficacious statin. In the current work, an attempt was investigated to develop, evaluate various bioerodible composite sponges enclosing rosuvastatin and explore their potential in augmenting bone healing and regeneration. Twelve lyophilized sponge formulae were prepared adapting a 4 1 .3 1 full factorial design. Xanthan gum, polycarbophil, Carbopol® and sodium alginate were investigated as anionic polymers, each at three chitosan:anionic polymer ratios (1:3, 1:1, 3:1). The formula of choice was implanted in fractured rat femora. Visual and microscopic examination showed flexible homogenous porous structures with considerable bending ability. Polyelectrolyte complex formation was proved by DSC and FT-IR for all chitosan/anionic combinations except with xanthan gum where chitosan probably bound to the drug rather than xanthan gum. Statistical analysis proved that anionic polymer type and chitosan: polymer ratio, as well as, their interactions, exhibited significant effects on the release parameters at p ≤ 0.05. The optimum chitosan/anionic polymer complexation ratios were 3:1 for polycarbophil and 1:1 for Carbopol and alginate. The release at these ratios followed Fiction diffusion while other ratios had anomalous diffusion. Imwitor® 900K and HPMC K100M were added as release retarardants for further release optimization. The formula of choice was implanted in fractured rat femora. Histopathological examination revealed advanced stages of healing in treated femora compared to control ones. Biodegradable sponges for local rosuvastatin delivery proved significantly enhanced wound healing and regeneration properties to fractured bones.

Generating variable and random schedules of reinforcement using Microsoft Excel macros.

PubMed

Bancroft, Stacie L; Bourret, Jason C

2008-01-01

Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values.

Dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Loda, Justin B; Woodall, William H

2017-07-20

For a patient who has survived a surgery, there could be several levels of recovery. Thus, it is reasonable to consider more than two outcomes when monitoring surgical outcome quality. The risk-adjusted cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart based on multiresponses has been developed for monitoring a surgical process with three or more outcomes. However, there is a significant effect of varying risk distributions on the in-control performance of the chart when constant control limits are applied. To overcome this disadvantage, we apply the dynamic probability control limits to the risk-adjusted CUSUM charts for multiresponses. The simulation results demonstrate that the in-control performance of the charts with dynamic probability control limits can be controlled for different patient populations because these limits are determined for each specific sequence of patients. Thus, the use of dynamic probability control limits for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts based on multiresponses allows each chart to be designed for the corresponding patient sequence of a surgeon or a hospital and therefore does not require estimating or monitoring the patients' risk distribution. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impact of cigarette smoking on rates and clinical prognosis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Southern Mexico.

PubMed

Bonacci, Robert A; Cruz-Hervert, Luis Pablo; García-García, Lourdes; Reynales-Shigematsu, Luz Myriam; Ferreyra-Reyes, Leticia; Bobadilla-del-Valle, Miriam; Canizales-Quintero, Sergio; Ferreira-Guerrero, Elizabeth; Báez-Saldaña, Renata; Téllez-Vázquez, Norma; Mongua-Rodríguez, Norma; Montero-Campos, Rogelio; Delgado-Sánchez, Guadalupe; Martínez-Gamboa, Rosa Areli; Cano-Arellano, Bulmaro; Sifuentes-Osornio, José; Ponce de León, Alfredo

2013-04-01

To examine the relationship between cigarette smoking and incidence and mortality rates of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) and treatment outcomes. From 1995 to 2010, we analyzed data from 1062 patients with TB and from 2001 to 2004, 2951 contacts in Southern Mexico. Patients with acid-fast bacilli or Mycobacterium tuberculosis in sputum samples underwent epidemiological, clinical and mycobacteriological evaluation and received treatment by the local DOTS program. Consumers of 1-10 (LS) or 11 or more (HS) cigarettes per day incidence (1.75 and 11.79) and mortality (HS, 17.74) smoker-non-smoker rate ratios were significantly higher for smokers. Smoker population was more likely to experience unfavorable treatment outcomes (HS, adjusted OR 2.36) and retreatment (LS and HS, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 2.14 and 2.37). Contacts that smoked had a higher probability of developing active TB (HR 2.38) during follow up. Results indicate the need of incorporating smoking prevention and cessation, especially among men, into international TB control strategies. Copyright © 2012 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lead isotopes in soils and groundwaters as tracers of the impact of human activities on the surface environment: The Domizio-Flegreo Littoral (Italy) case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grezzi, G.; Ayuso, R.A.; de Vivo, B.; Lima, A.; Albanese, S.

2011-01-01

The isotopic signature of geogenic and anthropogenic materials, in combination with concentration data for pollutants, can help trace the origin and the extent of contamination in the environment. This approach is particularly effective if naturally occurring and anthropogenically introduced metals have different isotopic ratios. Lead isotope analysis on soils from 7 profiles (1. m depth) and on groundwaters from 8 wells have been used to determine the impact of human activities on the surface environment of Domizio-Flegreo Littoral. Result obtained show that in sub-rural areas the isotopic composition of the samples collected along the soil profiles of Domizio-Flegreo Littoral is likely mostly controlled by the nature of the parent geologic material (natural) while in more urbanized areas (Giugliano) Pb isotopic composition in superficial soils is mostly influenced by anthropic sources such as motor vehicles. Lead isotopic ratios in groundwaters also show that the use of pesticides and, probably, the influence of aerosols and the presence of illegal waste disposal can influence water quality. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Alzheimer disease: Quantitative analysis of I-123-iodoamphetamine SPECT brain imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hellman, R.S.; Tikofsky, R.S.; Collier, B.D.

1989-07-01

To enable a more quantitative diagnosis of senile dementia of the Alzheimer type (SDAT), the authors developed and tested a semiautomated method to define regions of interest (ROIs) to be used in quantitating results from single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) of regional cerebral blood flow performed with N-isopropyl iodine-123-iodoamphetamine. SPECT/IMP imaging was performed in ten patients with probable SDAT and seven healthy subjects. Multiple ROIs were manually and semiautomatically generated, and uptake was quantitated for each ROI. Mean cortical activity was estimated as the average of the mean activity in 24 semiautomatically generated ROIs; mean cerebellar activity was determinedmore » from the mean activity in separate ROIs. A ratio of parietal to cerebellar activity less than 0.60 and a ratio of parietal to mean cortical activity less than 0.90 allowed correct categorization of nine of ten and eight of ten patients, respectively, with SDAT and all control subjects. The degree of diminished mental status observed in patients with SDAT correlated with both global and regional changes in IMP uptake.« less

Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

PubMed

Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

2017-02-01

Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

Two-step estimation in ratio-of-mediator-probability weighted causal mediation analysis.

PubMed

Bein, Edward; Deutsch, Jonah; Hong, Guanglei; Porter, Kristin E; Qin, Xu; Yang, Cheng

2018-04-15

This study investigates appropriate estimation of estimator variability in the context of causal mediation analysis that employs propensity score-based weighting. Such an analysis decomposes the total effect of a treatment on the outcome into an indirect effect transmitted through a focal mediator and a direct effect bypassing the mediator. Ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting estimates these causal effects by adjusting for the confounding impact of a large number of pretreatment covariates through propensity score-based weighting. In step 1, a propensity score model is estimated. In step 2, the causal effects of interest are estimated using weights derived from the prior step's regression coefficient estimates. Statistical inferences obtained from this 2-step estimation procedure are potentially problematic if the estimated standard errors of the causal effect estimates do not reflect the sampling uncertainty in the estimation of the weights. This study extends to ratio-of-mediator-probability weighting analysis a solution to the 2-step estimation problem by stacking the score functions from both steps. We derive the asymptotic variance-covariance matrix for the indirect effect and direct effect 2-step estimators, provide simulation results, and illustrate with an application study. Our simulation results indicate that the sampling uncertainty in the estimated weights should not be ignored. The standard error estimation using the stacking procedure offers a viable alternative to bootstrap standard error estimation. We discuss broad implications of this approach for causal analysis involving propensity score-based weighting. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A potpourri of pristine moon rocks, including a VHK mare basalt and a unique, augite-rich Apollo 17 anorthosite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, Paul H.; Shirley, David N.; Kallemeyn, Gregory W.

1986-09-01

Analysis of previously unstudied Apollo lithic fragments continues to yield surprising results. Among this year's samples is a small anorthosite fragment, 76504,18, the first pristine anorthosite found from Apollo 17. This unique lithology strongly resembles the main type of Apollo anorthosites ferroan anorthosites), but 76504,18 has a far higher ratio (about 9) of high-Ca pyroxene to low-Ca pyroxene, higher Na in its plagioclase, higher contents of incompatible elements such as REE, and a higher Eu/Al ratio. Assuming that 76504,18 is a cumulate with less than 45% trapped liquid, its parent melt probably had a negative Eu anomaly. In all these respects, 76504,18 seems more likely than (other) ferroan anorthosites to be closely related to typical mare basalts. Apparrently this anorthosite was among the latest to form by plagioclase flotation abovbe a primordial magmasphere; typical mare basalt source regions probably accumulated at about the same time or even earlier. Another previusly unstudied fragment, 14181c,is a VKH (very high potassium) basalt that is similar in most respects to typical (``aluminous'') Apollo 14 mare basalt but has a K/La ratio of 1050. This lithology probably formed after a normal Apollo 14 mare basaltic melt partially assimilated granite. New data for siderophile elements in Apollo 1 mare basalts indicate that only the lowest of earlier data are trustworthy a being free of laboratory contamination.

Flame surface statistics of constant-pressure turbulent expanding premixed flames

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Abhishek; Chaudhuri, Swetaprovo; Law, Chung K.

2014-04-01

In this paper we investigate the local flame surface statistics of constant-pressure turbulent expanding flames. First the statistics of local length ratio is experimentally determined from high-speed planar Mie scattering images of spherically expanding flames, with the length ratio on the measurement plane, at predefined equiangular sectors, defined as the ratio of the actual flame length to the length of a circular-arc of radius equal to the average radius of the flame. Assuming isotropic distribution of such flame segments we then convolute suitable forms of the length-ratio probability distribution functions (pdfs) to arrive at the corresponding area-ratio pdfs. It is found that both the length ratio and area ratio pdfs are near log-normally distributed and shows self-similar behavior with increasing radius. Near log-normality and rather intermittent behavior of the flame-length ratio suggests similarity with dissipation rate quantities which stimulates multifractal analysis.

Examination of time series through randomly broken windows. [space observations from earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sturrock, P. A.

1980-01-01

The effect of irregular interruption of data collection (the breaking of the window function) on the spectrum determination of a time series is investigated. It is assumed that there is a uniform probability p that each interval of length tau, of the total interval of length T = tau, yields no data. For the linear case (Fourier transform) it is found that the noise to signal ratio has a (one sigma) value less than epsilon if N exceeds p(-1) (1-p) epsilon (-2). For the quadratic case, the same requirement is met by the less restrictive requirement that N exceed p(-1) (1-p) epsilon (-1). It appears that, if four observatories spaced around the Earth were to operate for 25 days, each for six hours a day (N = 100), and if the probability of cloud cover at any site on any day is 20% (p = 0.8), the r.m.s. noise to signal ratio is 0.25% for frequencies displaced from a sharp strong signal by 15 micro Hz. The noise to signal ratio drops off rapidly if the frequency offset exceeds 15 micro Hz.

Antibiotic efficacy in patients with a moderate probability of acute rhinosinusitis: a systematic review.

PubMed

Burgstaller, Jakob M; Steurer, Johann; Holzmann, David; Geiges, Gabriel; Soyka, Michael B

2016-05-01

The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize the results of original studies assessing antibiotic efficacy at different time points after initiating treatment in patients with a moderate probability of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. We searched the Cochrane library for systematic reviews on the efficacy of antibiotic treatment in patients with acute rhinosinusitis (ARS). Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared treatment of any antibiotic with placebo were included. The synthesis of the results of six RCTs showed a benefit of antibiotic treatment compared to placebo for the rate of improvement after 3 [pooled odds ratio (OR) 2.78 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.39-5.58)] and 7 [OR 2.29 (95 % CI 1.19-4.41)] days after initiation in patients with symptoms and signs of ARS lasting for 7 or more days. After 10 days [pooled OR 1.36 (95 % CI 0.66-2.90)], improvement rates did not differ significantly between patients treated with or without antibiotics. Compared to placebo, antibiotic treatment relieves symptoms in a significantly higher proportion of patients within the first days of treatment. Reporting an overall average treatment efficacy may underestimate treatment benefits in patients with a self-limiting illness.

Resolution Enhanced Magnetic Sensing System for Wide Coverage Real Time UXO Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zalevsky, Zeev; Bregman, Yuri; Salomonski, Nizan; Zafrir, Hovav

2012-09-01

In this paper we present a new high resolution automatic detection algorithm based upon a Wavelet transform and then validate it in marine related experiments. The proposed approach allows obtaining an automatic detection in a very low signal to noise ratios. The amount of calculations is reduced, the magnetic trend is depressed and the probability of detection/ false alarm rate can easily be controlled. Moreover, the algorithm enables to distinguish between close targets. In the algorithm we use the physical dependence of the magnetic field of a magnetic dipole in order to define a Wavelet mother function that later on can detect magnetic targets modeled as dipoles and embedded in noisy surrounding, at improved resolution. The proposed algorithm was realized on synthesized targets and then validated in field experiments involving a marine surface-floating system for wide coverage real time unexploded ordinance (UXO) detection and mapping. The detection probability achieved in the marine experiment was above 90%. The horizontal radial error of most of the detected targets was only 16 m and two baseline targets that were immersed about 20 m one to another could easily be distinguished.

When violence pays: a cost-benefit analysis of aggressive behavior in animals and humans.

PubMed

Georgiev, Alexander V; Klimczuk, Amanda C E; Traficonte, Daniel M; Maestripieri, Dario

2013-07-18

An optimization analysis of human behavior from a comparative perspective can improve our understanding of the adaptiveness of human nature. Intra-specific competition for resources provides the main selective pressure for the evolution of violent aggression toward conspecifics, and variation in the fitness benefits and costs of aggression can account for inter-specific and inter-individual differences in aggressiveness. When aggression reflects competition for resources, its benefits vary in relation to the characteristics of the resources (their intrinsic value, abundance, spatial distribution, and controllability) while its costs vary in relation to the characteristics of organisms and how they fight (which, in turn, affects the extent to which aggression entails risk of physical injury or death, energetic depletion, exposure to predation, psychological and physiological stress, or damage to social relationships). Humans are a highly aggressive species in comparison to other animals, probably as a result of an unusually high benefit-to-cost ratio for intra-specific aggression. This conclusion is supported by frequent and widespread occurrence of male-male coalitionary killing and by male-female sexual coercion. Sex differences in violent aggression in humans and other species probably evolved by sexual selection and reflect different optimal competitive strategies for males and females.

A modified varying-stage adaptive phase II/III clinical trial design.

PubMed

Dong, Gaohong; Vandemeulebroecke, Marc

2016-07-01

Conventionally, adaptive phase II/III clinical trials are carried out with a strict two-stage design. Recently, a varying-stage adaptive phase II/III clinical trial design has been developed. In this design, following the first stage, an intermediate stage can be adaptively added to obtain more data, so that a more informative decision can be made. Therefore, the number of further investigational stages is determined based upon data accumulated to the interim analysis. This design considers two plausible study endpoints, with one of them initially designated as the primary endpoint. Based on interim results, another endpoint can be switched as the primary endpoint. However, in many therapeutic areas, the primary study endpoint is well established. Therefore, we modify this design to consider one study endpoint only so that it may be more readily applicable in real clinical trial designs. Our simulations show that, the same as the original design, this modified design controls the Type I error rate, and the design parameters such as the threshold probability for the two-stage setting and the alpha allocation ratio in the two-stage setting versus the three-stage setting have a great impact on the design characteristics. However, this modified design requires a larger sample size for the initial stage, and the probability of futility becomes much higher when the threshold probability for the two-stage setting gets smaller. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Tables of Transition Probabilities and Branching Ratios for Electric Dipole Transitions Between Arbitrary Levels of Hydrogen-Like Atoms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Omidvar, K.

1980-01-01

Branching ratios in hydrogen-like atoms due to electric-dipole transitions are tabulated for the initial principal and angular momentum quantum number n, lambda, and final principal and angular momentum quantum numbers n, lambda. In table 1, transition probabilities are given for transitions n, lambda, yields n, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In this table, 2 or = n' or = 10, o or = lambda' or = n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. In addition, averages with respect to lambda' and sums with respect to n, and lifetimes are given. In table 2, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields ni, where sums have been made with respect to lambda. In these tables, 2 or = n' or = 10, 0 or = lambda', n'-1, and 1 or = n or = n'-1. Averages with respect to lambda' are also given. In table 3, branching ratios are given for transitions n' lambda' yields in lambda, where 1 or = n or = 5, 0 or = lambda or = n-1, n n' or = 15, and 0 or = lambda' or = n(s), where n(s), is the smaller of the two numbers n'-1 and 6. Averages with respect to lambda' are given.

An original approach was used to better evaluate the capacity of a prognostic marker using published survival curves.

PubMed

Dantan, Etienne; Combescure, Christophe; Lorent, Marine; Ashton-Chess, Joanna; Daguin, Pascal; Classe, Jean-Marc; Giral, Magali; Foucher, Yohann

2014-04-01

Predicting chronic disease evolution from a prognostic marker is a key field of research in clinical epidemiology. However, the prognostic capacity of a marker is not systematically evaluated using the appropriate methodology. We proposed the use of simple equations to calculate time-dependent sensitivity and specificity based on published survival curves and other time-dependent indicators as predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios to reappraise prognostic marker accuracy. The methodology is illustrated by back calculating time-dependent indicators from published articles presenting a marker as highly correlated with the time to event, concluding on the high prognostic capacity of the marker, and presenting the Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The tools necessary to run these direct and simple computations are available online at http://www.divat.fr/en/online-calculators/evalbiom. Our examples illustrate that published conclusions about prognostic marker accuracy may be overoptimistic, thus giving potential for major mistakes in therapeutic decisions. Our approach should help readers better evaluate clinical articles reporting on prognostic markers. Time-dependent sensitivity and specificity inform on the inherent prognostic capacity of a marker for a defined prognostic time. Time-dependent predictive values, likelihood ratios, and posttest probability ratios may additionally contribute to interpret the marker's prognostic capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Probabilistic and Highly Efficient Topology Control Algorithm for Underwater Cooperating AUV Networks

PubMed Central

Li, Ning; Cürüklü, Baran; Bastos, Joaquim; Sucasas, Victor; Fernandez, Jose Antonio Sanchez; Rodriguez, Jonathan

2017-01-01

The aim of the Smart and Networking Underwater Robots in Cooperation Meshes (SWARMs) project is to make autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), remote operated vehicles (ROVs) and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) more accessible and useful. To achieve cooperation and communication between different AUVs, these must be able to exchange messages, so an efficient and reliable communication network is necessary for SWARMs. In order to provide an efficient and reliable communication network for mission execution, one of the important and necessary issues is the topology control of the network of AUVs that are cooperating underwater. However, due to the specific properties of an underwater AUV cooperation network, such as the high mobility of AUVs, large transmission delays, low bandwidth, etc., the traditional topology control algorithms primarily designed for terrestrial wireless sensor networks cannot be used directly in the underwater environment. Moreover, these algorithms, in which the nodes adjust their transmission power once the current transmission power does not equal an optimal one, are costly in an underwater cooperating AUV network. Considering these facts, in this paper, we propose a Probabilistic Topology Control (PTC) algorithm for an underwater cooperating AUV network. In PTC, when the transmission power of an AUV is not equal to the optimal transmission power, then whether the transmission power needs to be adjusted or not will be determined based on the AUV’s parameters. Each AUV determines their own transmission power adjustment probability based on the parameter deviations. The larger the deviation, the higher the transmission power adjustment probability is, and vice versa. For evaluating the performance of PTC, we combine the PTC algorithm with the Fuzzy logic Topology Control (FTC) algorithm and compare the performance of these two algorithms. The simulation results have demonstrated that the PTC is efficient at reducing the transmission power adjustment ratio while improving the network performance. PMID:28471387

A Probabilistic and Highly Efficient Topology Control Algorithm for Underwater Cooperating AUV Networks.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Cürüklü, Baran; Bastos, Joaquim; Sucasas, Victor; Fernandez, Jose Antonio Sanchez; Rodriguez, Jonathan

2017-05-04

The aim of the Smart and Networking Underwater Robots in Cooperation Meshes (SWARMs) project is to make autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs), remote operated vehicles (ROVs) and unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) more accessible and useful. To achieve cooperation and communication between different AUVs, these must be able to exchange messages, so an efficient and reliable communication network is necessary for SWARMs. In order to provide an efficient and reliable communication network for mission execution, one of the important and necessary issues is the topology control of the network of AUVs that are cooperating underwater. However, due to the specific properties of an underwater AUV cooperation network, such as the high mobility of AUVs, large transmission delays, low bandwidth, etc., the traditional topology control algorithms primarily designed for terrestrial wireless sensor networks cannot be used directly in the underwater environment. Moreover, these algorithms, in which the nodes adjust their transmission power once the current transmission power does not equal an optimal one, are costly in an underwater cooperating AUV network. Considering these facts, in this paper, we propose a Probabilistic Topology Control (PTC) algorithm for an underwater cooperating AUV network. In PTC, when the transmission power of an AUV is not equal to the optimal transmission power, then whether the transmission power needs to be adjusted or not will be determined based on the AUV's parameters. Each AUV determines their own transmission power adjustment probability based on the parameter deviations. The larger the deviation, the higher the transmission power adjustment probability is, and vice versa. For evaluating the performance of PTC, we combine the PTC algorithm with the Fuzzy logic Topology Control (FTC) algorithm and compare the performance of these two algorithms. The simulation results have demonstrated that the PTC is efficient at reducing the transmission power adjustment ratio while improving the network performance.

Students' Understanding of Conditional Probability on Entering University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reaburn, Robyn

2013-01-01

An understanding of conditional probability is essential for students of inferential statistics as it is used in Null Hypothesis Tests. Conditional probability is also used in Bayes' theorem, in the interpretation of medical screening tests and in quality control procedures. This study examines the understanding of conditional probability of…

Isotopic source signatures for atmospheric lead: the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bollhöfer, A.; Rosman, K. J. R.

2000-10-01

Aerosols collected between 1994 and 1999 at more than 70 different sites affecting the Southern Hemisphere have been measured for their 206Pb/ 207Pb, 208Pb/ 207Pb and 206Pb/ 204Pb ratios and Pb concentrations. Lower ratios are found at the southern tips of Africa, Australia and South America probably due to the supply of alkyllead from a common supplier such as Associated Octel. The ratios increase in a northerly direction probably due to a changing market share in alkyllead or an increasing industrial Pb contribution. The geographical variations in isotopic signatures made it possible to broadly characterize the different regions that influence the Southern Hemisphere. Brazil and Argentina exhibited 206Pb/ 207Pb, 208Pb/ 207Pb and 206Pb/ 204Pb ratios in aerosols of 1.141-1.184, 2.416-2.442 and 17.77-18.57, respectively. Mexican aerosols had values of 1.188-1.197, 2.452-2.463 and 18.46-18.73. Aerosols sampled in Chile had low ratios in the South of 1.063-1.094, 2.337-2.373 and 16.46-17.13 which increased in a northerly direction. Emissions from South Africa were characterized by ratios 1.067-1.090, 2.340-2.358 and 16.53-16.99. In 1994-1995 Australia and New Zealand had ratios of 1.060-1.193, 2.324-2.445 and 16.08-18.54. In 1997 however, the range was narrower: 1.072-1.112, 2.342-2.398 and 16.55-17.36, respectively. These isotopic signatures are potentially useful for tracing sources of pollution and the movement of air-masses on a global scale.

M to L cone ratios determine eye sizes and baseline refractions in chickens.

PubMed

Gisbert, Sandra; Schaeffel, Frank

2018-07-01

Following a hypothesis raised by M. and J. Neitz, Seattle, we have tested whether the abundance and the ratio of Long wavelength-sensitive (L) to Middle wavelength-sensitive (M) cones may affect eye size and development of myopia in the chicken. Fourteen chickens were treated with frosted plastic diffusers in front of one eye on day 10 post-hatching for a period of 7 days to induce deprivation myopia. Ocular dimensions were measured by A-scan ultrasonography at the beginning and at the end of the treatment and development of refractive state was tracked using infrared photorefraction. At the end of the treatment period, L and M cone densities and ratios were analyzed in retinal flat mounts of both myopic and control eyes, using the red and yellow oil droplets as markers. Because large numbers of cones were counted (>10000), software was written in Visual C++ for automated cone detection and density analysis. (1) On average, 9.7 ± 1.7D of deprivation myopia was induced in 7 days (range from 6.8D to 13.7D) with an average increase in axial length by 0.65 ± 0.20 mm (range 0.42 mm-1.00 mm), (2) the increase in vitreous chamber depth was correlated with the increase in myopic refractive error, (3) average central M cone densities were 10,498 cells/mm 2 , and L cone densities 9574 cells/mm 2 . In the periphery, M cone densities were 6343 cells/mm 2 and L cones 5735 cells/mm 2 (4) M to L cone ratios were highly correlated in both eyes of each animal (p < 0.01 in all cases), (5) the most striking finding was that ratios of M to L cones were significantly correlated with vitreous chamber depths and refractive states in the control eyes with normal vision, both in the central and peripheral retinas (p < 0.05 to p < 0.01), (6) M to L cone ratios did however not predict the amount of deprivation myopia that could be induced. M and L cone ratios are most likely genetically determined in each animal. The more L cones, the deeper the vitreous chambers and the more myopic were the refractions in eyes. M to L cone ratios may determine the set point of emmetropization and thereby ultimately the probability of becoming myopic. Deprivation myopia was not determined by M to L cone ratios. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schuster, J.J.; Stryker, J.A.; Demers, L.M.

The pathophysiology of chronic radiation-induced diarrhea was evaluated in 28 patients who had undergone pelvic irradiation for gynecologic neoplasms 2 to 7 years previously. Twenty-seven patients undergoing radiotherapy with techniques that did not require abdominal or pelvic irradiation served as controls. The glycine conjugates of cholic acid (GC) were measured in serum by radioimmunoassay. Fasting and 2 hr. pp GC levels for the pelvic irradiated patients were 11.0 +/- 11.1 (mean +/- SD) and 24.8 +/- 17.3 micrograms/dl. Fasting and 2 hr. pp GC levels for controls were 12.6 +/- 7.4 and 28.0 +/- 14.7. There were no significant differencesmore » in the post-prandial increases in serum GC between pelvic irradiated patients and controls (p = .23, Type II error probability = .13). There was also no significant difference in the 2 hr. pp and fasting GC ratio (p = .39). There was significant difference between the stool frequency (p less than .01) and the prevalence of diarrhea (p less than .02) between pelvic irradiated patients and controls. The data suggest that bile acid malabsorption due to ileal dysfunction is not an inevitable late complication of pelvic irradiation and is not the major determinant in the pathophysiology of chronic radiation-induced diarrhea.« less

Statistical power in parallel group point exposure studies with time-to-event outcomes: an empirical comparison of the performance of randomized controlled trials and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-15

Estimating statistical power is an important component of the design of both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Methods for estimating statistical power in RCTs have been well described and can be implemented simply. In observational studies, statistical methods must be used to remove the effects of confounding that can occur due to non-random treatment assignment. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score is an attractive method for estimating the effects of treatment using observational data. However, sample size and power calculations have not been adequately described for these methods. We used an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the statistical power of an IPTW analysis of an observational study with time-to-event outcomes with that of an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. We examined the impact of four factors on the statistical power function: number of observed events, prevalence of treatment, the marginal hazard ratio, and the strength of the treatment-selection process. We found that, on average, an IPTW analysis had lower statistical power compared to an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. The difference in statistical power increased as the magnitude of the treatment-selection model increased. The statistical power of an IPTW analysis tended to be lower than the statistical power of a similarly-structured RCT.

A missing dimension in measures of vaccination impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomes, M. Gabriela M.; Lipsitch, Marc; Wargo, Andrew R.; Kurath, Gael; Rebelo, Carlota; Medley, Graham F.; Coutinho, Antonio

2013-01-01

Immunological protection, acquired from either natural infection or vaccination, varies among hosts, reflecting underlying biological variation and affecting population-level protection. Owing to the nature of resistance mechanisms, distributions of susceptibility and protection entangle with pathogen dose in a way that can be decoupled by adequately representing the dose dimension. Any infectious processes must depend in some fashion on dose, and empirical evidence exists for an effect of exposure dose on the probability of transmission to mumps-vaccinated hosts [1], the case-fatality ratio of measles [2], and the probability of infection and, given infection, of symptoms in cholera [3]. Extreme distributions of vaccine protection have been termed leaky (partially protects all hosts) and all-or-nothing (totally protects a proportion of hosts) [4]. These distributions can be distinguished in vaccine field trials from the time dependence of infections [5]. Frailty mixing models have also been proposed to estimate the distribution of protection from time to event data [6], [7], although the results are not comparable across regions unless there is explicit control for baseline transmission [8]. Distributions of host susceptibility and acquired protection can be estimated from dose-response data generated under controlled experimental conditions [9]–[11] and natural settings [12], [13]. These distributions can guide research on mechanisms of protection, as well as enable model validity across the entire range of transmission intensities. We argue for a shift to a dose-dimension paradigm in infectious disease science and community health.

Maturation of human hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid function and control.

PubMed

Fisher, D A; Nelson, J C; Carlton, E I; Wilcox, R B

2000-03-01

Measurements of serum thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (T4) concentrations were conducted in infants, children, and adults to assess maturation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) feedback control axis. Serum free T4 and TSH concentration data were collated for cord blood of the midgestation fetus, for premature and term infants, and for peripheral blood from newborn infants, children, and adults. Mean values were plotted on a nomogram developed to characterize the reference ranges of the normal axis quantitatively based on data from 522 healthy subjects, 2 weeks to 54 years of age; 83 untreated hypothyroid patients; and 116 untreated hyperthyroid patients. Samples for 75 patients with thyroid hormone resistance were also plotted. The characterized pattern of HPT maturation included a progressive decrease in the TSH/free T4 ratio with age, from 15 in the midterm fetus, to 4.7 in term infants, and 0.97 in adults. Maturation plotted on the nomogram was complex, suggesting increasing hypothalamic-pituitary T4 resistance during fetal development, probably secondary to increasing thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) secretion, the marked, cold-stimulated TRH-TSH surge at birth with reequilibration by 2-20 weeks, and a final maturation phase characterized by a decreasing serum TSH with minimal change in free T4 concentration during childhood and adolescence. The postnatal maturative phase during childhood and adolescence correlates with the progressive decrease in thyroxine secretion rate (on a microg/kg per day basis) and metabolic rate and probably reflects decreasing TRH secretion.

Exact one-sided confidence limits for the difference between two correlated proportions.

PubMed

Lloyd, Chris J; Moldovan, Max V

2007-08-15

We construct exact and optimal one-sided upper and lower confidence bounds for the difference between two probabilities based on matched binary pairs using well-established optimality theory of Buehler. Starting with five different approximate lower and upper limits, we adjust them to have coverage probability exactly equal to the desired nominal level and then compare the resulting exact limits by their mean size. Exact limits based on the signed root likelihood ratio statistic are preferred and recommended for practical use.

Atmospheric Chemiluminescence: COCHISE (COld CHemical Infrared Simulation Experiment) and Related Experiments.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-10-13

35. 𔄁. Wiese, W.L., Smith, M.W., and Miles , B.M. (1969) Atomic Transition Probabilities, Vol. II, NSRDS-NBS 22. 8. Green, B.D., private communication...sidearms simultane- ously changes the flow velocity (that is, the residence time) and the ratio of charge to number density E/N in the discharge plasma , as...Levels, Vol. I, NSRDS-NBS 35. 7. Wiese, W. L., Smith, M. W., and Miles , B. M. (1969’, Atomic Transition Probabilities, Vol. II, NSRDS-NBS 22. 8. Green, B

Economic evaluation of multidisciplinary rehabilitation treatment versus cognitive behavioural therapy for patients with chronic fatigue syndrome: A randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Vos-Vromans, Desirée; Evers, Silvia; Huijnen, Ivan; Köke, Albère; Hitters, Minou; Rijnders, Nieke; Pont, Menno; Knottnerus, André; Smeets, Rob

2017-01-01

A multi-centre RCT has shown that multidisciplinary rehabilitation treatment (MRT) is more effective in reducing fatigue over the long-term in comparison with cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for patients with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), but evidence on its cost-effectiveness is lacking. To compare the cost-effectiveness of MRT versus CBT for patients with CFS from a societal perspective. A multi-centre randomized controlled trial comparing MRT with CBT was conducted among 122 patients with CFS diagnosed using the 1994 criteria of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and aged between 18 and 60 years. The societal costs (healthcare costs, patient and family costs, and costs for loss of productivity), fatigue severity, quality of life, quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), and cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured over a follow-up period of one year. The main outcome of the cost-effectiveness analysis was fatigue measured by the Checklist Individual Strength (CIS). The main outcome of the cost-utility analysis was the QALY based on the EuroQol-5D-3L utilities. Sensitivity analyses were performed, and uncertainty was calculated using the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and cost-effectiveness planes. The data of 109 patients (57 MRT and 52 CBT) were analyzed. MRT was significantly more effective in reducing fatigue at 52 weeks. The mean difference in QALY between the treatments was not significant (0.09, 95% CI: -0.02 to 0.19). The total societal costs were significantly higher for patients allocated to MRT (a difference of €5,389, 95% CI: 2,488 to 8,091). MRT has a high probability of being the most cost effective, using fatigue as the primary outcome. The ICER is €856 per unit of the CIS fatigue subscale. The results of the cost-utility analysis, using the QALY, indicate that the CBT had a higher likelihood of being more cost-effective. The probability of being more cost-effective is higher for MRT when using fatigue as primary outcome variable. Using QALY as the primary outcome, CBT has the highest probability of being more cost-effective. ISRCTN77567702.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Rapid, single-step most-probable-number method for enumerating fecal coliforms in effluents from sewage treatment plants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munoz, E. F.; Silverman, M. P.

1979-01-01

A single-step most-probable-number method for determining the number of fecal coliform bacteria present in sewage treatment plant effluents is discussed. A single growth medium based on that of Reasoner et al. (1976) and consisting of 5.0 gr. proteose peptone, 3.0 gr. yeast extract, 10.0 gr. lactose, 7.5 gr. NaCl, 0.2 gr. sodium lauryl sulfate, and 0.1 gr. sodium desoxycholate per liter is used. The pH is adjusted to 6.5, and samples are incubated at 44.5 deg C. Bacterial growth is detected either by measuring the increase with time in the electrical impedance ratio between the innoculated sample vial and an uninnoculated reference vial or by visual examination for turbidity. Results obtained by the single-step method for chlorinated and unchlorinated effluent samples are in excellent agreement with those obtained by the standard method. It is suggested that in automated treatment plants impedance ratio data could be automatically matched by computer programs with the appropriate dilution factors and most probable number tables already in the computer memory, with the corresponding result displayed as fecal coliforms per 100 ml of effluent.

A-FABP Concentration Is More Strongly Associated with Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and the Occurrence of Metabolic Syndrome in Premenopausal Than in Postmenopausal Middle-Aged Women

PubMed Central

Ponikowska, Irena; Sypniewska, Grazyna

2014-01-01

We aimed at the evaluation of the relationship between adipocyte fatty acid binding protein (A-FABP) and cardiometabolic risk factors in premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Additionally, we compared A-FABP with adipokines related to metabolic syndrome (MetS) such as leptin and adiponectin. 94 premenopausal and 90 early postmenopausal middle-aged Caucasian women were subject to examinations. Postmenopausal women had higher A-FABP than premenopausal; this difference became insignificant after controlling for age. We found significantly higher correlation coefficients between A-FABP and TC/HDL-C ratio and number of MetS components in premenopausal women, compared to postmenopausal. Each 1 ng/dL increase in A-FABP concentration significantly increased the probability of occurrence of atherogenic lipid profile in premenopausal women, even after multivariate adjustment. All odds ratios became insignificant after controlling for BMI in postmenopausal women. A-FABP was more strongly associated with MetS than leptin and adiponectin in premenopausal women. Adiponectin concentration was a better biomarker for MetS after menopause. Our results suggest that the A-FABP is more strongly associated with some cardiometabolic risk factors in premenopausal than in postmenopausal women. Higher values of A-FABP after menopause are mainly explained by the fact that postmenopausal women are older. Because of the limitation of study, these results should be interpreted with caution. PMID:24971341

Effect of glyphosate acid on biochemical markers of periphyton exposed in outdoor mesocosms in the presence and absence of the mussel Limnoperna fortunei.

PubMed

Iummato, María Mercedes; Pizarro, Haydée; Cataldo, Daniel; Di Fiori, Eugenia; Dos Santos Afonso, María; Del Carmen Ríos de Molina, María; Juárez, Ángela Beatriz

2017-07-01

Glyphosate is currently the most widely used herbicide in agricultural production. It generally enters aquatic ecosystems through surface water runoff and aerial drift. We evaluated the effect of glyphosate acid on biochemical parameters of periphyton exposed to concentrations of 1, 3, and 6 mg/L in outdoor mesocosms in the presence and absence of the mussel Limnoperna fortunei. Periphyton ash-free dry weight, chlorophyll a content, carotene/chlorophyll a ratio, lipid peroxidation levels, and superoxide dismutase and catalase activities were determined at days 0, 1, 7, 14, and 26 of the experimental period. Ash-free dry weight was similar between control and glyphosate-treated periphyton in the absence of L. fortunei. The latter had significantly lower carotene to chlorophyll a ratios and enzyme activities, and higher lipid peroxidation levels and chlorophyll a content than the former. These results show an adverse effect of glyphosate on the metabolism of periphyton community organisms, possibly inducing oxidative stress. On the contrary, no differences were observed in any of these variables between control and glyphosate-treated periphyton in the presence of L. fortunei. Mussels probably attenuated the herbicide effects by contributing to glyphosate dissipation. The results also demonstrate that biochemical markers provide useful information that may warn of herbicide impact on periphyton communities. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1775-1784. © 2016 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

Cancer incidence following chlorophenol exposure in a community in southern Finland.

PubMed

Lampi, P; Hakulinen, T; Luostarinen, T; Pukkala, E; Teppo, L

1992-01-01

Chlorophenols have contaminated the drinking water system and the local lake in the village of Järvelä in southern Finland. Local geology, ground water streams, and chemical analyses incriminated a local sawmill as the only plausible source of exposure. Cancer incidence in the municipality of Kärkölä (half of the population lives in Järvelä), compared with the rest of the local health-care district and with the greater cancer control region, indicated an excess of soft-tissue sarcomas and non-Hodgkin's lymphomas. A case-control study, which focused on cancers of the colon, bladder and soft tissues, lymphomas, and leukemia, demonstrated a significantly elevated risk ratio for non-Hodgkin's lymphomas among persons who consumed fish from the local lake, which was contaminated with chlorophenols. Probable exposure to chlorophenol-contaminated drinking water played a role in the increased incidence of non-Hodgkin's lymphomas and possibly was a factor in the development of soft-tissue sarcoma.

Delay and probability discounting of sexual and monetary outcomes in individuals with cocaine use disorders and matched controls.

PubMed

Johnson, Matthew W; Johnson, Patrick S; Herrmann, Evan S; Sweeney, Mary M

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event's value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior.

Delay and Probability Discounting of Sexual and Monetary Outcomes in Individuals with Cocaine Use Disorders and Matched Controls

PubMed Central

Johnson, Matthew W.; Johnson, Patrick S.; Herrmann, Evan S.; Sweeney, Mary M.

2015-01-01

Individuals with cocaine use disorders are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS, partly due to higher rates of unprotected sex. Recent research suggests delay discounting of condom use is a factor in sexual HIV risk. Delay discounting is a behavioral economic concept describing how delaying an event reduces that event’s value or impact on behavior. Probability discounting is a related concept describing how the uncertainty of an event decreases its impact on behavior. Individuals with cocaine use disorders (n = 23) and matched non-cocaine-using controls (n = 24) were compared in decision-making tasks involving hypothetical outcomes: delay discounting of condom-protected sex (Sexual Delay Discounting Task), delay discounting of money, the effect of sexually transmitted infection (STI) risk on likelihood of condom use (Sexual Probability Discounting Task), and probability discounting of money. The Cocaine group discounted delayed condom-protected sex (i.e., were more likely to have unprotected sex vs. wait for a condom) significantly more than controls in two of four Sexual Delay Discounting Task partner conditions. The Cocaine group also discounted delayed money (i.e., preferred smaller immediate amounts over larger delayed amounts) significantly more than controls. In the Sexual Probability Discounting Task, both groups showed sensitivity to STI risk, however the groups did not differ. The Cocaine group did not consistently discount probabilistic money more or less than controls. Steeper discounting of delayed, but not probabilistic, sexual outcomes may contribute to greater rates of sexual HIV risk among individuals with cocaine use disorders. Probability discounting of sexual outcomes may contribute to risk of unprotected sex in both groups. Correlations showed sexual and monetary results were unrelated, for both delay and probability discounting. The results highlight the importance of studying specific behavioral processes (e.g., delay and probability discounting) with respect to specific outcomes (e.g., monetary and sexual) to understand decision making in problematic behavior. PMID:26017273

The Evidential Basis of Decision Making in Plant Disease Management.

PubMed

Hughes, Gareth

2017-08-04

The evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify-at the time the decision is made-the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log 10 -likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.

Insular and submarine ferromanganese mineralization of the Tonga-Lau region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hein, J.R.; Schulz, M.S.; Jung-Keuk, Kang

1990-01-01

Ferromanganese oxides in the Tonga-Lau region are divided into crusts and stratabound deposits. Crusts were collected from the Tonga and Lau Ridges and have Fe/Mn ratios greater than 1, and an average Co content of 0.25%. The crusts average less than 10 mm thick with a maximum of 50 mm, and growth rates of tens of millimeters per million years. The thickest crust is probably less than a million years old. Crusts formed by both hydrogenetic and hydrothermal precipitation, with the hydrothermal input averaging 76%. Stratabound deposits are divided into three types. The source rocks through which the circulating fluids passed controlled the dominant minor element compositions of the stratabound deposits from each area: Valu Fa Ridge, Mo; Tonga Ridge Ti; Tonumea, Sr and Eua, V. -from Authors

Microencapsulated Dopamine (DA)-Induced Restitution of Function in 6-OHDA-Denervated Rat Striatum in vivo: Comparison Between Two Microsphere Excipients

PubMed Central

McRae, Amanda; Hjorth, Stephan; Mason, David W.; Dillon, Lynn; Tice, Thomas R.

1991-01-01

Biodegradable controlled-release microsphere systems made with the biocompatible biodegradable polyester excipient poly [DL lactide-co-glycolide] constitute an exciting new technology for drug delivery to the central nervous system (CNS). The present study describes functional observations indicating that implantation of dopamine (DA) microspheres encapsulated within two different polymer excipients into denervated- striatal tissue assures a prolonged release of the transmitter in vivo. Moreover, in this regard, the results show that there were clear cut temporal differences in the effect of the two DA microsphere formulations compared in this study, probably reflecting variations in the actual composition (i.e., lactide to glycolide ratio) of the two copolymer excipients examined. This technology has considerable potential for basic research with possible clinical application. PMID:1782252

Analysis of energy relaxation kinetics for control of the electron energy distributions in capacitively coupled RF discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jung Yeol; Verboncoeur, John P.; Lee, Hae June

2018-04-01

The transition of electron energy probability functions (EEPFs) through the change of heating mode is an important issue in plasma science. A well-known example is that the increase of gas pressure, which was analyzed in terms of the ratio of the energy relaxation mean free path to the electrode gap distance, changes the EEPF from bi-Maxwellian to Maxwellian or Druyvesteyn. In this study, a new aspect of the temporal decay of kinetic energy during the energy relaxation time is theoretically analyzed and compared with a particle-in-cell Monte Carlo collision simulation of capacitively coupled plasmas. A fully kinetic description of electron transport and collisions shows drastic changes of EEPFs with the variation of the driving frequency due to the heating mode transition.

Laser velocimetry measurements in a gas turbine research combustor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Driscoll, J. F.; Pelaccio, D. G.

1979-01-01

The effects of turbulence on the production of pollutant species in a gas-turbine research combustor are studied using laser diffraction velocimetry (LDV) techniques. Measurements that were made in the primary combustion zone include mean velocity, rms velocity fluctuations, velocity probability distributions, and autocorrelation functions. A unique combustor design provides relatively uniform flow conditions and independent control of drop size, equivalence ratio, inlet temperature, and combustor pressure. Parameters which characterize the nature of the spray combustion (i.e., whether single droplet or group combustion occurs), were determined from the LDV data. Turbulent diffusivity (eddy viscosity) reaches a value of 2930 sq cm/sec, corresponding to a convective integral length scale of 1.8 cm. The group combustion number, based on turbulent diffusivity, is measured to be 6.2

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in London and Middlesex County, Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Hader, W J; Elliot, M; Ebers, G C

1988-04-01

A case-controlled epidemiologic study of multiple sclerosis (MS) was carried out in London, Ontario, and its surrounding Middlesex County for the period 1974-1983. The prevalence rates for clinically definite/probable MS on January 1, 1984 were 94/100,000 for the city and 91/100,000 for the county. The estimated annual incidence rate for the decade 1974-83 was 3.4/100,000. The female-to-male sex ratio was 2.5:1. A familial history of MS was recorded in 14.4% of close relatives and a total of 17% when distant relatives are included. The MS group is predominantly of British (70%) and European (23%) origin. The urban-rural residence pattern analysis indicates no significant regional influence on the risk of developing MS.

Applicability of the linear-quadratic formalism for modeling local tumor control probability in high dose per fraction stereotactic body radiotherapy for early stage non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Guckenberger, Matthias; Klement, Rainer Johannes; Allgäuer, Michael; Appold, Steffen; Dieckmann, Karin; Ernst, Iris; Ganswindt, Ute; Holy, Richard; Nestle, Ursula; Nevinny-Stickel, Meinhard; Semrau, Sabine; Sterzing, Florian; Wittig, Andrea; Andratschke, Nicolaus; Flentje, Michael

2013-10-01

To compare the linear-quadratic (LQ) and the LQ-L formalism (linear cell survival curve beyond a threshold dose dT) for modeling local tumor control probability (TCP) in stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study is based on 395 patients from 13 German and Austrian centers treated with SBRT for stage I NSCLC. The median number of SBRT fractions was 3 (range 1-8) and median single fraction dose was 12.5 Gy (2.9-33 Gy); dose was prescribed to the median 65% PTV encompassing isodose (60-100%). Assuming an α/β-value of 10 Gy, we modeled TCP as a sigmoid-shaped function of the biologically effective dose (BED). Models were compared using maximum likelihood ratio tests as well as Bayes factors (BFs). There was strong evidence for a dose-response relationship in the total patient cohort (BFs>20), which was lacking in single-fraction SBRT (BFs<3). Using the PTV encompassing dose or maximum (isocentric) dose, our data indicated a LQ-L transition dose (dT) at 11 Gy (68% CI 8-14 Gy) or 22 Gy (14-42 Gy), respectively. However, the fit of the LQ-L models was not significantly better than a fit without the dT parameter (p=0.07, BF=2.1 and p=0.86, BF=0.8, respectively). Generally, isocentric doses resulted in much better dose-response relationships than PTV encompassing doses (BFs>20). Our data suggest accurate modeling of local tumor control in fractionated SBRT for stage I NSCLC with the traditional LQ formalism. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indoor air quality of houses located in the urban environment of Agra, India.

PubMed

Taneja, Ajay; Saini, Renuka; Masih, Amit

2008-10-01

Increased concern over the adverse health effects of air pollution has highlighted the need for air-pollution measurements, especially in urban areas, where many sources of air pollutants are normally monitored outdoors as part of obligations under the National Air Quality Strategies. Very little is known about air pollution indoors. In fact, the largest exposure to health-damaging indoor pollution probably occurs in the developing world, not in households, schools, and offices of developed countries where most research and control efforts have been focused to date. As a result much of the health impacts from air pollution worldwide seem to occur among the poorest and most vulnerable populations. The authors in their earlier studies have confirmed the importance of ambient air in determining the quality of air indoors. In this study an observation of air quality indoors and outdoors of domestic homes located in an urban environment from October 2004 to December 2005 in Agra, north central India, is performed. The purpose of this study was to characterize the indoor/outdoor (I/O) relationship of airborne pollutants and recognize their probable source in all three seasons, that is, winter, summer, and rainy season. Concentrations of SO(2), NO(2), CO(2), Cl(2), H(2)S, NH(3), RSPM, and PAH were monitored simultaneously and I/O ratios were calculated. In order to investigate the effect of seasonality on indoor and ambient air quality, winter to summer and winter to monsoon average ratios were calculated. It is apparent that there is a general pattern of increasing levels from monsoon to summer to winter, and similarly from outdoor to indoor air. Regressions analysis had been done to further investigate the influence of outdoor air-pollutant concentrations on indoor concentrations. The most probable categories of sources for these pollutants have been identified by using principal-component analysis. Indoor air pollution is a complex function of energy housing and behavioral factors. On the basis of this study and observations, some interventions are also suggested.

Quantitative Lymphoscintigraphy to Predict the Possibility of Lymphedema Development After Breast Cancer Surgery: Retrospective Clinical Study.

PubMed

Kim, Paul; Lee, Ju Kang; Lim, Oh Kyung; Park, Heung Kyu; Park, Ki Deok

2017-12-01

To predict the probability of lymphedema development in breast cancer patients in the early post-operation stage, we investigated the ability of quantitative lymphoscintigraphic assessment. This retrospective study included 201 patients without lymphedema after unilateral breast cancer surgery. Lymphoscintigraphy was performed between 4 and 8 weeks after surgery to evaluate the lymphatic system in the early postoperative stage. Quantitative lymphoscintigraphy was performed using four methods: ratio of radiopharmaceutical clearance rate of the affected to normal hand; ratio of radioactivity of the affected to normal hand; ratio of radiopharmaceutical uptake rate of the affected to normal axilla (RUA); and ratio of radioactivity of the affected to normal axilla (RRA). During a 1-year follow-up, patients with a circumferential interlimb difference of 2 cm at any measurement location and a 200-mL interlimb volume difference were diagnosed with lymphedema. We investigated the difference in quantitative lymphoscintigraphic assessment between the non-lymphedema and lymphedema groups. Quantitative lymphoscintigraphic assessment revealed that the RUA and RRA were significantly lower in the lymphedema group than in the non-lymphedema group. After adjusting the model for all significant variables (body mass index, N-stage, T-stage, type of surgery, and type of lymph node surgery), RRA was associated with lymphedema (odds ratio=0.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.46; p=0.001). In patients in the early postoperative stage after unilateral breast cancer surgery, quantitative lymphoscintigraphic assessment can be used to predict the probability of developing lymphedema.

Mental health difficulties in children with developmental coordination disorder.

PubMed

Lingam, Raghu; Jongmans, Marian J; Ellis, Matthew; Hunt, Linda P; Golding, Jean; Emond, Alan

2012-04-01

To explore the associations between probable developmental coordination disorder (DCD) defined at age 7 years and mental health difficulties at age 9 to 10 years. We analyzed of prospectively collected data (N = 6902) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. "Probable" DCD was defined by using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision criteria as those children below the 15th centile of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children Coordination Test, with functional limitations in activities of daily living or handwriting, excluding children with neurologic difficulties or an IQ <70. Mental health was measured by using the child-reported Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire and the parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Multiple logistic regression models, with the use of multiple imputation to account for missing data, assessed the associations between probable DCD and mental health difficulties. Adjustments were made for environmental confounding factors, and potential mediating factors such as verbal IQ, associated developmental traits, bullying, self-esteem, and friendships. Children with probable DCD (N = 346) had an increased odds of self-reported depression, odds ratio: 2.08 (95% confidence interval: 1.36-3.19) and parent-reported mental health difficulties odds ratio: 4.23 (95% confidence interval: 3.10-5.77). The odds of mental health difficulties significantly decreased after accounting for verbal IQ, social communication, bullying, and self-esteem. Children with probable DCD had an increased risk of mental health difficulties that, in part, were mediated through associated developmental difficulties, low verbal IQ, poor self-esteem, and bullying. Prevention and treatment of mental health difficulties should be a key element of intervention for children with DCD.

Signal-to-noise ratio estimation in digital computer simulation of lowpass and bandpass systems with applications to analog and digital communications, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tranter, W. H.; Turner, M. D.

1977-01-01

Techniques are developed to estimate power gain, delay, signal-to-noise ratio, and mean square error in digital computer simulations of lowpass and bandpass systems. The techniques are applied to analog and digital communications. The signal-to-noise ratio estimates are shown to be maximum likelihood estimates in additive white Gaussian noise. The methods are seen to be especially useful for digital communication systems where the mapping from the signal-to-noise ratio to the error probability can be obtained. Simulation results show the techniques developed to be accurate and quite versatile in evaluating the performance of many systems through digital computer simulation.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of propofol versus midazolam for procedural sedation in the emergency department.

PubMed

Hohl, Corinne Michèle; Nosyk, Bohdan; Sadatsafavi, Mohsen; Anis, Aslam Hayat

2008-01-01

To determine the incremental cost-effectiveness of using propofol versus midazolam for procedural sedation (PS) in adults in the emergency department (ED). The authors conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the health care provider. The primary outcome was the incremental cost (or savings) to achieve one additional successful sedation with propofol compared to midazolam. A decision model was developed in which the clinical effectiveness and cost of a PS strategy using either agent was estimated. The authors derived estimates of clinical effectiveness and risk of adverse events (AEs) from a systematic review. The cost of each clinical outcome was determined by incorporating the baseline cost of the ED visit, the cost of the drug, the cost of labor of physicians and nurses, the cost and probability of an AE, and the cost and probability of a PS failure. A standard meta-analytic technique was used to calculate the weighted mean difference in recovery times and obtain mean drug doses from patient-level data from a randomized controlled trial. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the uncertainty around the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio using Monte Carlo simulation. Choosing a sedation strategy with propofol resulted in average savings of $17.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] = $24.13 to $10.44) per sedation performed. This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of -$597.03 (95% credibility interval -$6,434.03 to $6,113.57) indicating savings of $597.03 per additional successful sedation performed with propofol. This result was driven by shorter recovery times and was robust to all sensitivity analyses performed. These results indicate that using propofol for PS in the ED is a cost-saving strategy.

Juggling work and breastfeeding: effects of maternity leave and occupational characteristics.

PubMed

Guendelman, Sylvia; Kosa, Jessica Lang; Pearl, Michelle; Graham, Steve; Goodman, Julia; Kharrazi, Martin

2009-01-01

Juggling breastfeeding and paid work can challenge breastfeeding success. We examined the relationship between breastfeeding and maternity leave before and after delivery among working mothers in Southern California. California is 1 of only 5 states in the United States providing paid pregnancy leave that can be extended for infant bonding. Drawing from a case-control study of preterm birth and low birth weight, 770 full-time working mothers were compared on whether they established breastfeeding in the first month. For those who established breastfeeding, we examined duration. Eligible women participated in California's Prenatal Screening Program; delivered live births between July 2002 and December 2003; were > or =18 years old; had a singleton birth without congenital anomalies; and had a US mailing address. We assessed whether maternity leave and other occupational characteristics predicted breastfeeding cessation and used multivariate regression models weighted for probability of sampling to calculate odds ratios for breastfeeding establishment and hazards ratios for breastfeeding cessation. A maternity leave of < or =6 weeks or 6 to 12 weeks after delivery was associated, respectively, with a fourfold and twofold higher odds of failure to establish breastfeeding and an increased probability of cessation after successful establishment, relative to women not returning to work, after adjusting for covariates. The impact of short postpartum leave on breastfeeding cessation was stronger among nonmanagers, women with inflexible jobs, and with high psychosocial distress. Antenatal leave in the last month of pregnancy was not associated with breastfeeding establishment or duration. Postpartum maternity leave may have a positive effect on breastfeeding among full-time workers, particularly those who hold nonmanagerial positions, lack job flexibility, or experience psychosocial distress. Pediatricians should encourage patients to take maternity leave and advocate for extending paid postpartum leave and flexibility in working conditions for breastfeeding women.

Imaging markers for Alzheimer disease

PubMed Central

Bocchetta, Martina; Chételat, Gael; Rabinovici, Gil D.; de Leon, Mony J.; Kaye, Jeffrey; Reiman, Eric M.; Scheltens, Philip; Barkhof, Frederik; Black, Sandra E.; Brooks, David J.; Carrillo, Maria C.; Fox, Nick C.; Herholz, Karl; Nordberg, Agneta; Jack, Clifford R.; Jagust, William J.; Johnson, Keith A.; Rowe, Christopher C.; Sperling, Reisa A.; Thies, William; Wahlund, Lars-Olof; Weiner, Michael W.; Pasqualetti, Patrizio; DeCarli, Charles

2013-01-01

Revised diagnostic criteria for Alzheimer disease (AD) acknowledge a key role of imaging biomarkers for early diagnosis. Diagnostic accuracy depends on which marker (i.e., amyloid imaging, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose [FDG]-PET, SPECT, MRI) as well as how it is measured (“metric”: visual, manual, semiautomated, or automated segmentation/computation). We evaluated diagnostic accuracy of marker vs metric in separating AD from healthy and prognostic accuracy to predict progression in mild cognitive impairment. The outcome measure was positive (negative) likelihood ratio, LR+ (LR−), defined as the ratio between the probability of positive (negative) test outcome in patients and the probability of positive (negative) test outcome in healthy controls. Diagnostic LR+ of markers was between 4.4 and 9.4 and LR− between 0.25 and 0.08, whereas prognostic LR+ and LR− were between 1.7 and 7.5, and 0.50 and 0.11, respectively. Within metrics, LRs varied up to 100-fold: LR+ from approximately 1 to 100; LR− from approximately 1.00 to 0.01. Markers accounted for 11% and 18% of diagnostic and prognostic variance of LR+ and 16% and 24% of LR−. Across all markers, metrics accounted for an equal or larger amount of variance than markers: 13% and 62% of diagnostic and prognostic variance of LR+, and 29% and 18% of LR−. Within markers, the largest proportion of diagnostic LR+ and LR− variability was within 18F-FDG-PET and MRI metrics, respectively. Diagnostic and prognostic accuracy of imaging AD biomarkers is at least as dependent on how the biomarker is measured as on the biomarker itself. Standard operating procedures are key to biomarker use in the clinical routine and drug trials. PMID:23897875

Novel methylation markers of the dysexecutive-psychiatric phenotype in FMR1 premutation women

PubMed Central

Kraan, Claudine M.; Bui, Quang Minh; Bellgrove, Mark A.; Metcalfe, Sylvia A.; Trollor, Julian N.; Hocking, Darren R.; Slater, Howard R.; Inaba, Yoshimi; Li, Xin; Archibald, Alison D.; Turbitt, Erin; Cohen, Jonathan; Godler, David E.

2015-01-01

Objective: To examine the epigenetic basis of psychiatric symptoms and dysexecutive impairments in FMR1 premutation (PM: 55 to 199 CGG repeats) women. Methods: A total of 35 FMR1 PM women aged between 22 and 55 years and 35 age- and IQ-matched women controls (CGG <45) participated in this study. All participants completed a range of executive function tests and self-reported symptoms of psychiatric disorders. The molecular measures included DNA methylation of the FMR1 CpG island in blood, presented as FMR1 activation ratio (AR), and 9 CpG sites located at the FMR1 exon1/intron 1 boundary, CGG size, and FMR1 mRNA levels. Results: We show that FMR1 intron 1 methylation levels could be used to dichotomize PM women into greater and lower risk categories (p = 0.006 to 0.037; odds ratio = 14–24.8), with only FMR1 intron 1 methylation, and to a lesser extent AR, being significantly correlated with the likelihood of probable dysexecutive or psychiatric symptoms (p < 0.05). Furthermore, the significant relationships between methylation and social anxiety were found to be mediated by executive function performance, but only in PM women. FMR1 exon 1 methylation, CGG size, and FMR1 mRNA could not predict probable dysexecutive/psychiatric disorders in PM women. Conclusions: This is the first study supporting presence of specific epigenetic etiology associated with increased risk of developing comorbid dysexecutive and social anxiety symptoms in PM women. These findings could have implications for early intervention and risk estimate recommendations aimed at improving the outcomes for PM women and their families. PMID:25809302

Clinical evaluation incorporating a personal genome

PubMed Central

Ashley, Euan A.; Butte, Atul J.; Wheeler, Matthew T.; Chen, Rong; Klein, Teri E.; Dewey, Frederick E.; Dudley, Joel T.; Ormond, Kelly E.; Pavlovic, Aleksandra; Hudgins, Louanne; Gong, Li; Hodges, Laura M.; Berlin, Dorit S.; Thorn, Caroline F.; Sangkuhl, Katrin; Hebert, Joan M.; Woon, Mark; Sagreiya, Hersh; Whaley, Ryan; Morgan, Alexander A.; Pushkarev, Dmitry; Neff, Norma F; Knowles, Joshua W.; Chou, Mike; Thakuria, Joseph; Rosenbaum, Abraham; Zaranek, Alexander Wait; Church, George; Greely, Henry T.; Quake, Stephen R.; Altman, Russ B.

2010-01-01

Background The cost of genomic information has fallen steeply but the path to clinical translation of risk estimates for common variants found in genome wide association studies remains unclear. Since the speed and cost of sequencing complete genomes is rapidly declining, more comprehensive means of analyzing these data in concert with rare variants for genetic risk assessment and individualisation of therapy are required. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of a complete human genome in a clinical context. Methods An individual with a family history of vascular disease and early sudden death was evaluated. Clinical assessment included risk prediction for coronary artery disease, screening for causes of sudden cardiac death, and genetic counselling. Genetic analysis included the development of novel methods for the integration of whole genome sequence data including 2.6 million single nucleotide polymorphisms and 752 copy number variations. The algorithm focused on predicting genetic risk of genes associated with known Mendelian disease, recognised drug responses, and pathogenicity for novel variants. In addition, since integration of risk ratios derived from case control studies is challenging, we estimated posterior probabilities from age and sex appropriate prior probability and likelihood ratios derived for each genotype. In addition, we developed a visualisation approach to account for gene-environment interactions and conditionally dependent risks. Findings We found increased genetic risk for myocardial infarction, type II diabetes and certain cancers. Rare variants in LPA are consistent with the family history of coronary artery disease. Pharmacogenomic analysis suggested a positive response to lipid lowering therapy, likely clopidogrel resistance, and a low initial dosing requirement for warfarin. Many variants of uncertain significance were reported. Interpretation Although challenges remain, our results suggest that whole genome sequencing can yield useful and clinically relevant information for individual patients, especially for those with a strong family history of significant disease. PMID:20435227

Canopy Spectral Invariants. Part 2; Application to Classification of Forest Types from Hyperspectral Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schull, M. A.; Knyazikhin, Y.; Xu, L.; Samanta, A.; Carmona, P. L.; Lepine, L.; Jenkins, J. P.; Ganguly, S.; Myneni, R. B.

2011-01-01

Many studies have been conducted to demonstrate the ability of hyperspectral data to discriminate plant dominant species. Most of them have employed the use of empirically based techniques, which are site specific, requires some initial training based on characteristics of known leaf and/or canopy spectra and therefore may not be extendable to operational use or adapted to changing or unknown land cover. In this paper we propose a physically based approach for separation of dominant forest type using hyperspectral data. The radiative transfer theory of canopy spectral invariants underlies the approach, which facilitates parameterization of the canopy reflectance in terms of the leaf spectral scattering and two spectrally invariant and structurally varying variables - recollision and directional escape probabilities. The methodology is based on the idea of retrieving spectrally invariant parameters from hyperspectral data first, and then relating their values to structural characteristics of three-dimensional canopy structure. Theoretical and empirical analyses of ground and airborne data acquired by Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) over two sites in New England, USA, suggest that the canopy spectral invariants convey information about canopy structure at both the macro- and micro-scales. The total escape probability (one minus recollision probability) varies as a power function with the exponent related to the number of nested hierarchical levels present in the pixel. Its base is a geometrical mean of the local total escape probabilities and accounts for the cumulative effect of canopy structure over a wide range of scales. The ratio of the directional to the total escape probability becomes independent of the number of hierarchical levels and is a function of the canopy structure at the macro-scale such as tree spatial distribution, crown shape and size, within-crown foliage density and ground cover. These properties allow for the natural separation of dominant forest classes based on the location of points on the total escape probability vs the ratio log-log plane.

Orbital electron capture by the nucleus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bambynek, W.; Behrens, H.; Chen, M. H.; Crasemann, B.; Fitzpatrick, M. L.; Ledingham, K. W. D.; Genz, H.; Mutterer, M.; Intemann, R. L.

1976-01-01

The theory of nuclear electron capture is reviewed in the light of current understanding of weak interactions. Experimental methods and results regarding capture probabilities, capture ratios, and EC/Beta(+) ratios are summarized. Radiative electron capture is discussed, including both theory and experiment. Atomic wave function overlap and electron exchange effects are covered, as are atomic transitions that accompany nuclear electron capture. Tables are provided to assist the reader in determining quantities of interest for specific cases.

TH-CD-202-10: Tumor Metabolic Control Probability & Dose Response Mapping for Adaptive Dose Painting by Number

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, S; Wilson, G; Krauss, D

Purpose: Adaptive dose-painting-by-number (DPbN) requires a dose-response-mapping (DRM) obtained early in the treatment course. To obtain DRM, voxel-by-voxel tumor dose response needs to be quantified. Our recent study has demonstrated that voxel-by-voxel radio-sensitivity of patient tumor can be determined using tumor-metabolic-ratio measured early during the treatment using FDG-PET images. In this study, the measurements were utilized to construct tumor metabolic control probability (TMCP) and DRM for DPbN. Methods: FDG-PET/CT images of 18 HN cancer patients obtained pre- and weekly during the treatment were used. Spatial parametric images of tumor-metabolic-ratio (dSUV) were constructed following voxel-by-voxel deformable image registration. Each voxel valuemore » in dSUV was a function of baseline SUV and delivered dose. Utilizing all values of dSUV in the controlled tumor group at the last treatment week, a cut-off function between the baseline SUV and dSUV was formed, and applied in early treatment days on dSUV of all tumors to model the TMCP. At the treatment week k, TMCP was constructed with respect to the tumor voxel dSUV appeared at the week using the maximum likelihood estimation for all dose levels, and used for DRM construction. Results: TMCPs estimated in the week 2 & 3 have D{sub 50}=11.1∼47.6Gy; γ{sub 50}=0.55∼0.92 respectively with respect to dSUV=0.3∼1.2. The corresponding DRM between tumor voxel dSUV and the expected treatment dose has sigmoid shape. The expected treatment dose are 26∼40Gy (for 95% TMCP) for high sensitive tumor voxels with dSUV=0.3∼0.5; and 65∼110Gy for low sensitive tumor voxels with the dSUV>1.0 depending on the time of the estimation. Conclusion: TMCP can be constructed voxel-by-voxel in human tumor using multiple FDG-PET imaging obtained in early treatment days. TMCP provides a potential quantitative objective of tumor DRM for DPbN to plan the best dose, escalate or de-escalate, in tumor adaptively based on its own radio-sensitivity.« less

Early neurologically focused follow-up after cardiac arrest is cost-effective: A trial-based economic evaluation.

PubMed

Moulaert, Véronique R M; Goossens, Mariëlle; Heijnders, Irene L C; Verbunt, Jeanine A; Heugten, Caroline M van

2016-09-01

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an early intervention service for cardiac arrest survivors called 'Stand still …, and move on' from a societal perspective. This concise nursing intervention consists of screening for cognitive and emotional problems, information provision and support, self-management promotion, and further referral if necessary. Earlier research confirmed the feasibility of the intervention and its effectiveness in improving emotional functioning and quality of life. In this multicentre randomized controlled trial with one year follow-up 185 patients were included between April 2007 and December 2010. The experimental group received the intervention, the control group received care-as-usual. Intervention costs, other direct healthcare costs (e.g. hospital care, rehabilitation, medication, home care) and indirect costs (productivity loss) were measured during ten months using monthly cost-diaries. The economic evaluation comprised a cost-utility analysis (SF-36) and a cost-effectiveness analysis (QOLIBRI) using bootstrapping (5000 replications) to quantify uncertainty concerning the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER), and the probability of the intervention being cost-effective was estimated. To check the robustness of the findings, two sensitivity analyses were performed using the EQ-5D and the complete cases respectively. Of 136 (74%) participants sufficient data concerning costs were collected to be included in this economic evaluation. Intervention costs were on average €127 (SD 85). No significant differences between groups were found with regard to overall costs. The ICERs of the cost-utility and the cost-effectiveness analyses supported the cost-effectiveness of the intervention. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 54-76% for the SF-36 and 94% for the QOLIBRI. Findings were robust. The intervention 'Stand still …, and move on' has positive societal economic effects and has a high probability to be cost-effective. Implementation in regular healthcare is recommended. ISRCTN74835019. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Date palm sap linked to Nipah virus outbreak in Bangladesh, 2008.

PubMed

Rahman, Muhammad Aziz; Hossain, Mohammad Jahangir; Sultana, Sharmin; Homaira, Nusrat; Khan, Salah Uddin; Rahman, Mahmudur; Gurley, Emily S; Rollin, Pierre E; Lo, Michael K; Comer, James A; Lowe, Luis; Rota, Paul A; Ksiazek, Thomas G; Kenah, Eben; Sharker, Yushuf; Luby, Stephen P

2012-01-01

We investigated a cluster of patients with encephalitis in the Manikgonj and Rajbari Districts of Bangladesh in February 2008 to determine the etiology and risk factors for disease. We classified persons as confirmed Nipah cases by the presence of immunoglobulin M antibodies against Nipah virus (NiV), or by the presence of NiV RNA or by isolation of NiV from cerebrospinal fluid or throat swabs who had onset of symptoms between February 6 and March 10, 2008. We classified persons as probable cases if they reported fever with convulsions or altered mental status, who resided in the outbreak areas during that period, and who died before serum samples were collected. For the case-control study, we compared both confirmed and probable Nipah case-patients to controls, who were free from illness during the reference period. We used motion-sensor-infrared cameras to observe bat's contact of date palm sap. We identified four confirmed and six probable case-patients, nine (90%) of whom died. The median age of the cases was 10 years; eight were males. The outbreak occurred simultaneously in two communities that were 44 km apart and separated by a river. Drinking raw date palm sap 2-12 days before illness onset was the only risk factor most strongly associated with the illness (adjusted odds ratio 25, 95% confidence intervals 3.3-∞, p<0.001). Case-patients reported no history of physical contact with bats, though community members often reported seeing bats. Infrared camera photographs showed that Pteropus bats frequently visited date palm trees in those communities where sap was collected for human consumption. This is the second Nipah outbreak in Bangladesh where date palm sap has been implicated as the vehicle of transmission. Fresh date palm sap should not be drunk, unless effective steps have been taken to prevent bat access to the sap during collection.

Association between Hormonal Contraception and Injuries Induced by Human Papillomavirus in the Uterine Cervix.

PubMed

Volpato, Lia Karina; Siqueira, Isabela Ribeiro; Nunes, Rodrigo Dias; Piovezan, Anna Paula

2018-04-01

 To evaluate the association between hormonal contraception and the appearance of human papillomavirus HPV-induced lesions in the uterine cervix of patients assisted at a school outpatient clinic - ObGyn outpatient service of the Universidade do Sul de Santa Catarina.  A case-control study, with women in fertile age, performed between 2012 and 2015. A total of 101 patients with cervical lesions secondary to HPV were included in the case group, and 101 patients with normal oncotic colpocytology, in the control group. The data were analyzed through the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS, IBM Corp. Armonk, NY, US) software, version 24.0, using the 95% confidence interval. To test the homogeneity of the proportions, the chi-square (χ 2 ) test was used for the qualitative variables, and the Student t-test, for the quantitative variables.  When comparing the occurrence of HPV lesions in users and non-users of combined oral contraceptives (COCs), the association with doses of 0.03 mg or higher of ethinylestradiol (EE) was observed. Thus, a higher probability of developing cervical lesions induced by HPV was identified (odds ratio [OR]: 1.9 p  = 0.039); and when these cases were separated by the degree of the lesion, the probability of these patients presenting with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion was 2.1 times higher ( p  = 0.036), but with no impact on high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions and the occurrence of invasive cancer. No significant differences were found in the other variables analyzed.  Although the results found in the present study suggest a higher probability of the users of combined hormonal contraceptives with a concentration higher than 0.03 mg of EE to develop low-grade intraepithelial lesions, more studies are needed to conclude causality. Thieme Revinter Publicações Ltda Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Heterogeneous reactions in aircraft gas turbine engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, R. C.; Miake-Lye, R. C.; Lukachko, S. P.; Waitz, I. A.

2002-05-01

One-dimensional flow models and unity probability heterogeneous rate parameters are used to estimate the maximum effect of heterogeneous reactions on trace species evolution in aircraft gas turbines. The analysis includes reactions on soot particulates and turbine/nozzle material surfaces. Results for a representative advanced subsonic engine indicate the net change in reactant mixing ratios due to heterogeneous reactions is <10-6 for O2, CO2, and H2O, and <10-10 for minor combustion products such as SO2 and NO2. The change in the mixing ratios relative to the initial values is <0.01%. Since these estimates are based on heterogeneous reaction probabilities of unity, the actual changes will be even lower. Thus, heterogeneous chemistry within the engine cannot explain the high conversion of SO2 to SO3 which some wake models require to explain the observed levels of volatile aerosols. Furthermore, turbine heterogeneous processes will not effect exhaust NOx or NOy levels.

Multivariate η-μ fading distribution with arbitrary correlation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghareeb, Ibrahim; Atiani, Amani

2018-03-01

An extensive analysis for the multivariate ? distribution with arbitrary correlation is presented, where novel analytical expressions for the multivariate probability density function, cumulative distribution function and moment generating function (MGF) of arbitrarily correlated and not necessarily identically distributed ? power random variables are derived. Also, this paper provides exact-form expression for the MGF of the instantaneous signal-to-noise ratio at the combiner output in a diversity reception system with maximal-ratio combining and post-detection equal-gain combining operating in slow frequency nonselective arbitrarily correlated not necessarily identically distributed ?-fading channels. The average bit error probability of differentially detected quadrature phase shift keying signals with post-detection diversity reception system over arbitrarily correlated and not necessarily identical fading parameters ?-fading channels is determined by using the MGF-based approach. The effect of fading correlation between diversity branches, fading severity parameters and diversity level is studied.

The magma ocean as an impediment to lunar plate tectonics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warren, Paul H.

1993-01-01

The primary impediment to plate tectonics on the moon was probably the great thickness of its crust and particularly its high crust/lithosphere thickness ratio. This in turn can be attributed to the preponderance of low-density feldspar over all other Al-compatible phases in the lunar interior. During the magma ocean epoch, the moon's crust/lithosphere thickness ratio was at the maximum theoretical value, approximately 1, and it remained high for a long time afterwards. A few large regions of thin crust were produced by basin-scale cratering approximately contemporaneous with the demise of the magma ocean. However, these regions probably also tend to have uncommonly thin lithosphere, since they were directly heated and indirectly enriched in K, Th, and U by the same cratering process. Thus, plate tectonics on the moon in the form of systematic lithosphere subduction was impeded by the magma ocean.

A Generalized Mechanism for Perception of Pitch Patterns

PubMed Central

Loui, Psyche; Wu, Elaine H.; Wessel, David L.; Knight, Robert T.

2009-01-01

Surviving in a complex and changeable environment relies upon the ability to extract probable recurring patterns. Here we report a neurophysiological mechanism for rapid probabilistic learning of a new system of music. Participants listened to different combinations of tones from a previously-unheard system of pitches based on the Bohlen-Pierce scale, with chord progressions that form 3:1 ratios in frequency, notably different from 2:1 frequency ratios in existing musical systems. Event-related brain potentials elicited by improbable sounds in the new music system showed emergence over a one-hour period of physiological signatures known to index sound expectation in standard Western music. These indices of expectation learning were eliminated when sound patterns were played equiprobably, and co-varied with individual behavioral differences in learning. These results demonstrate that humans utilize a generalized probability-based perceptual learning mechanism to process novel sound patterns in music. PMID:19144845

The bingo model of survivorship: 1. probabilistic aspects.

PubMed

Murphy, E A; Trojak, J E; Hou, W; Rohde, C A

1981-01-01

A "bingo" model is one in which the pattern of survival of a system is determined by whichever of several components, each with its own particular distribution for survival, fails first. The model is motivated by the study of lifespan in animals. A number of properties of such systems are discussed in general. They include the use of a special criterion of skewness that probably corresponds more closely than traditional measures to what the eye observes in casually inspecting data. This criterion is the ratio, r(h), of the probability density at a point an arbitrary distance, h, above the mode to that an equal distance below the mode. If this ratio is positive for all positive arguments, the distribution is considered positively asymmetrical and conversely. Details of the bingo model are worked out for several types of base distributions: the rectangular, the triangular, the logistic, and by numerical methods, the normal, lognormal, and gamma.

Costas loop lock detection in the advanced receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mileant, A.; Hinedi, S.

1989-01-01

The advanced receiver currently being developed uses a Costas digital loop to demodulate the subcarrier. Previous analyses of lock detector algorithms for Costas loops have ignored the effects of the inherent correlation between the samples of the phase-error process. Accounting for this correlation is necessary to achieve the desired lock-detection probability for a given false-alarm rate. Both analysis and simulations are used to quantify the effects of phase correlation on lock detection for the square-law and the absolute-value type detectors. Results are obtained which depict the lock-detection probability as a function of loop signal-to-noise ratio for a given false-alarm rate. The mathematical model and computer simulation show that the square-law detector experiences less degradation due to phase jitter than the absolute-value detector and that the degradation in detector signal-to-noise ratio is more pronounced for square-wave than for sine-wave signals.

Site-percolation threshold of carbon nanotube fibers-Fast inspection of percolation with Markov stochastic theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Fangbo; Xu, Zhiping; Yakobson, Boris I.

2014-08-01

We present a site-percolation model based on a modified FCC lattice, as well as an efficient algorithm of inspecting percolation which takes advantage of the Markov stochastic theory, in order to study the percolation threshold of carbon nanotube (CNT) fibers. Our Markov-chain based algorithm carries out the inspection of percolation by performing repeated sparse matrix-vector multiplications, which allows parallelized computation to accelerate the inspection for a given configuration. With this approach, we determine that the site-percolation transition of CNT fibers occurs at pc=0.1533±0.0013, and analyze the dependence of the effective percolation threshold (corresponding to 0.5 percolation probability) on the length and the aspect ratio of a CNT fiber on a finite-size-scaling basis. We also discuss the aspect ratio dependence of percolation probability with various values of p (not restricted to pc).

Survival probability of diffusion with trapping in cellular neurobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcman, David; Marchewka, Avi; Schuss, Zeev

2005-09-01

The problem of diffusion with absorption and trapping sites arises in the theory of molecular signaling inside and on the membranes of biological cells. In particular, this problem arises in the case of spine-dendrite communication, where the number of calcium ions, modeled as random particles, is regulated across the spine microstructure by pumps, which play the role of killing sites, while the end of the dendritic shaft is an absorbing boundary. We develop a general mathematical framework for diffusion in the presence of absorption and killing sites and apply it to the computation of the time-dependent survival probability of ions. We also compute the ratio of the number of absorbed particles at a specific location to the number of killed particles. We show that the ratio depends on the distribution of killing sites. The biological consequence is that the position of the pumps regulates the fraction of calcium ions that reach the dendrite.

Generating Variable and Random Schedules of Reinforcement Using Microsoft Excel Macros

PubMed Central

Bancroft, Stacie L; Bourret, Jason C

2008-01-01

Variable reinforcement schedules are used to arrange the availability of reinforcement following varying response ratios or intervals of time. Random reinforcement schedules are subtypes of variable reinforcement schedules that can be used to arrange the availability of reinforcement at a constant probability across number of responses or time. Generating schedule values for variable and random reinforcement schedules can be difficult. The present article describes the steps necessary to write macros in Microsoft Excel that will generate variable-ratio, variable-interval, variable-time, random-ratio, random-interval, and random-time reinforcement schedule values. PMID:18595286

Biochemical and Molecular Mechanisms Associated With the Resistance of the European Corn Borer (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) to Lambda-Cyhalothrin and First Monitoring Tool.

PubMed

Siegwart, Myriam; Thibord, Jean-Baptiste; Olivares, Jérôme; Hirn, Céline; Elias, Jan; Maugin, Sandrine; Lavigne, Claire

2017-04-01

The European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner)) is one of the most serious corn pest in Europe where it is controlled with pesticides, in particular, pyrethroids. First control failures with this chemical family occurred on the field in 2008 in the center of France, and the first resistance case was described in 2012. In the present study, we investigate resistance mechanisms involved in seven French populations of O. nubilalis collected in the field. Resistances to deltamethrin and lambda-cyhalothrin were confirmed, with a higher resistance ratio for lambda-cyhalothrin (63.79 compared to 7.67). Resistance to the two active compounds was correlated except for one population, indicating a high probability of cross-resistance. Analyses of the activity of three major families of detoxification enzymes in resistant individuals showed a significant increase of the average MFO activity in males of four populations (activity ratios of 2.76-5.73) and higher GST activity in females of two other populations (activity ratios 4.48 and 5.21). Molecular investigation of the sodium channel gene sequence showed the presence of the kdr mutation in a highly resistant individual. We designed a PCR-RFLP screening tool to search for this mutation in the field, and we found it in five populations but not in the susceptible one. The resistance of O. nubilalis to pyrethroids in France seems to result from a combination of resistance mechanisms, possibly as a consequence of a selection pressure with an exceptional duration (almost 40 yr old). © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effectiveness of Relapse Prevention Cognitive-Behavioral Model in Opioid-Dependent Patients Participating in the Methadone Maintenance Treatment in Iran

PubMed Central

PASHAEI, Tahereh; SHOJAEIZADEH, Davoud; RAHIMI FOROUSHANI, Abbas; GHAZITABATABAE, Mahmoud; MOEENI, Maryam; RAJATI, Fatemeh; M RAZZAGHI, Emran

2013-01-01

Background: To evaluate the effectiveness of a relapse prevention cognitive-behavioral model, based on Marlatt treatment approach, in Opioid-dependent patients participating in the Methadone Maintenance Treatment (MMT) in Iran. Methods: The study consisted of 92 individuals treated with methadone in Iranian National Center of Addiction Studies (INCAS). Participants were randomized into two groups: educational intervention group (N=46) and control group (N=46). The intervention was comprised of 10 weekly 90 minute sessions, done during a period of 2.5 months based on the most high risk situations determined using Inventory Drug Taking Situation instrument. Relapse was defined as not showing up for MMT, drug use for at least 5 continuous days, and a positive urinary morphine test. Results: While, only 36.4% of the intervention group relapsed into drug use, 63.6% of the control group relapsed. The result of the logistic regressions showed that the odd ratio of the variable of intervention program for the entire follow up period was 0.43 (P<0.01). Further, the odd ratio of this variable in one month, three months, and 195 days after the therapy were 0.48 (P<.03), 0.31 (P<.02), and 0.13 (P<.02) respectively that revealed that on average, the probability of relapse among individuals in the intervention group was lower than patients in control group Conclusion: Relapse prevention model based on Marlatt treatment approach has an effective role in decreasing relapse rate. This model can be introduced as a complementary therapy in patients treated with methadone maintenance. PMID:26056645

Effectiveness of Relapse Prevention Cognitive-Behavioral Model in Opioid-Dependent Patients Participating in the Methadone Maintenance Treatment in Iran.

PubMed

Pashaei, Tahereh; Shojaeizadeh, Davoud; Rahimi Foroushani, Abbas; Ghazitabatabae, Mahmoud; Moeeni, Maryam; Rajati, Fatemeh; M Razzaghi, Emran

2013-08-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of a relapse prevention cognitive-behavioral model, based on Marlatt treatment approach, in Opioid-dependent patients participating in the Methadone Maintenance Treatment (MMT) in Iran. The study consisted of 92 individuals treated with methadone in Iranian National Center of Addiction Studies (INCAS). Participants were randomized into two groups: educational intervention group (N=46) and control group (N=46). The intervention was comprised of 10 weekly 90 minute sessions, done during a period of 2.5 months based on the most high risk situations determined using Inventory Drug Taking Situation instrument. Relapse was defined as not showing up for MMT, drug use for at least 5 continuous days, and a positive urinary morphine test. While, only 36.4% of the intervention group relapsed into drug use, 63.6% of the control group relapsed. The result of the logistic regressions showed that the odd ratio of the variable of intervention program for the entire follow up period was 0.43 (P<0.01). Further, the odd ratio of this variable in one month, three months, and 195 days after the therapy were 0.48 (P<.03), 0.31 (P<.02), and 0.13 (P<.02) respectively that revealed that on average, the probability of relapse among individuals in the intervention group was lower than patients in control group. Relapse prevention model based on Marlatt treatment approach has an effective role in decreasing relapse rate. This model can be introduced as a complementary therapy in patients treated with methadone maintenance.

Who is most affected by prenatal alcohol exposure: Boys or girls?

PubMed

May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara; Hasken, Julie M; Marais, Anna-Susan; de Vries, Marlene M; Barnard, Ronel; Joubert, Belinda; Cloete, Marise; Botha, Isobel; Kalberg, Wendy O; Buckley, David; Burroughs, Zachary R; Bezuidenhout, Heidre; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Adnams, Colleen M; Seedat, Soraya; Parry, Charles D H; Hoyme, H Eugene

2017-08-01

To examine outcomes among boys and girls that are associated with prenatal alcohol exposure. Boys and girls with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD) and randomly-selected controls were compared on a variety of physical and neurobehavioral traits. Sex ratios indicated that heavy maternal binge drinking may have significantly diminished viability to birth and survival of boys postpartum more than girls by age seven. Case control comparisons of a variety of physical and neurobehavioral traits at age seven indicate that both sexes were affected similarly for a majority of variables. However, alcohol-exposed girls had significantly more dysmorphology overall than boys and performed significantly worse on non-verbal IQ tests than males. A three-step sequential regression analysis, controlling for multiple covariates, further indicated that dysmorphology among girls was significantly more associated with five maternal drinking variables and three distal maternal risk factors. However, the overall model, which included five associated neurobehavioral measures at step three, was not significant (p=0.09, two-tailed test). A separate sequential logistic regression analysis of predictors of a FASD diagnosis, however, indicated significantly more negative outcomes overall for girls than boys (Nagelkerke R 2 =0.42 for boys and 0.54 for girls, z=-2.9, p=0.004). Boys and girls had mostly similar outcomes when prenatal alcohol exposure was linked to poor physical and neurocognitive development. Nevertheless, sex ratios implicate lower viability and survival of males by first grade, and girls have more dysmorphology and neurocognitive impairment than boys resulting in a higher probability of a FASD diagnosis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The predictive efficiency of school bullying versus later offending: a systematic/meta-analytic review of longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Ttofi, Maria M; Farrington, David P; Lösel, Friedrich; Loeber, Rolf

2011-04-01

Although bullying and delinquency share similar risk factors, no previous systematic review has ever been conducted to examine possible links between school bullying and criminal offending later in life. To investigate the extent to which bullying perpetration at school predicts offending later in life, and whether this relation holds after controlling for other major childhood risk factors. Results are based on a thorough systematic review and meta-analysis of studies measuring school bullying and later offending. Effect sizes are based on both published and unpublished studies; longitudinal investigators of 28 studies have conducted specific analyses for our review. The probability of offending up to 11 years later was much higher for school bullies than for non-involved students [odds ratio (OR) = 2.50; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.03-3.08]. Bullying perpetration was a significant risk factor for later offending, even after controlling for major childhood risk factors (OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.55-2.14). Effect sizes were smaller when the follow-up period was longer and larger when bullying was assessed in older children. The age of participants when outcome measures were taken was negatively related with effect sizes. Finally, the summary effect size did not decrease much as the number of controlled risk factors increased. School bullying is a strong and specific risk factor for later offending. Effective anti-bullying programmes should be promoted, and could be viewed as a form of early crime prevention. Such programmes would have a high benefit : cost ratio. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in glyburide compared with insulin use for gestational diabetes treatment in the United States, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Camelo Castillo, Wendy; Boggess, Kim; Stürmer, Til; Brookhart, M Alan; Benjamin, Daniel K; Jonsson Funk, Michele

2014-06-01

To describe trends and identify factors associated with choice of pharmacotherapy for gestational diabetes (GDM) from 2000-2011 using a healthcare claims database. This was a retrospective cohort study of a large nationwide population of commercially insured women with GDM and pharmacy claims for glyburide or insulin before delivery, 2000-2011. We excluded women younger than 15 years or older than 50 years, those with prior noninsulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, or those who had multiple gestations. We estimated trends over time in the use of glyburide compared with insulin and prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between covariates of interest and treatment with glyburide compared with insulin. We identified 10,778 women with GDM treated with glyburide (n=5,873) or insulin (n=4,905). From 2000 to 2011, glyburide use increased from 7.4% to 64.5%, becoming the more common treatment in 2007. Women less likely to be treated with glyburide were those with metabolic syndrome (prevalence ratio 0.71, 95% CI 0.50-0.99), hyperandrogenism (prevalence ratio 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.97), polycystic ovarian syndrome (prevalence ratio 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.99), hypothyroidism (prevalence ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.83-0.96), or undergoing infertility treatment (prevalence ratio 0.93, 95% CI 0.86-1.02). The probability of receiving glyburide decreased by 5% for every 10-year increase in maternal age (prevalence ratio 0.95, 95% CI 0.91-0.99). Among women prescribed with glyburide, 7.8% switched or augmented to a different drug class compared with 1.1% of insulin initiators. Glyburide has replaced insulin as the more common pharmacotherapy for GDM over the past decade among those privately insured. Given its rapid uptake and the potential implications of suboptimal glucose control on maternal and neonatal health, robust evaluation of glyburide's relative effectiveness is warranted to inform treatment decisions for women with gestational diabetes. II.

A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners.

PubMed

Falk, R

1992-06-01

The "problem of three prisoners", a counterintuitive teaser, is analyzed. It is representative of a class of probability puzzles where the correct solution depends on explication of underlying assumptions. Spontaneous beliefs concerning the problem and intuitive heuristics are reviewed. The psychological background of these beliefs is explored. Several attempts to find a simple criterion to predict whether and how the probability of the target event will change as a result of obtaining evidence are examined. However, despite the psychological appeal of these attempts, none proves to be valid in general. A necessary and sufficient condition for change in the probability of the target event, following observation of new data, is proposed. That criterion is an extension of the likelihood-ratio principle (which holds in the case of only two complementary alternatives) to any number of alternatives. Some didactic implications concerning the significance of the chance set-up and reliance on analogies are discussed.

Hunting the parent of the Orphan stream. II. The first high-resolution spectroscopic study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casey, Andrew R.; Keller, Stefan C.; Da Costa, Gary

2014-03-20

We present the first high-resolution spectroscopic study on the Orphan stream for five stream candidates, observed with the Magellan Inamori Kyocera Echelle spectrograph on the Magellan Clay telescope. The targets were selected from the low-resolution catalog of Casey et al.: three high-probability members, one medium, and one low-probability stream candidate were observed. Our analysis indicates that the low- and medium-probability targets are metal-rich field stars. The remaining three high-probability targets range over ∼1 dex in metallicity, and are chemically distinct compared to the other two targets and all standard stars: low [α/Fe] abundance ratios are observed, and lower limits aremore » ascertained for [Ba/Y], which sit well above the Milky Way trend. These chemical signatures demonstrate that the undiscovered parent system is unequivocally a dwarf spheroidal galaxy, consistent with dynamical constraints inferred from the stream width and arc. As such, we firmly exclude the proposed association between NGC 2419 and the Orphan stream. A wide range in metallicities adds to the similarities between the Orphan stream and Segue 1, although the low [α/Fe] abundance ratios in the Orphan stream are in tension with the high [α/Fe] values observed in Segue 1. Open questions remain before Segue 1 could possibly be claimed as the 'parent' of the Orphan stream. The parent system could well remain undiscovered in the southern sky.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Basu, Partha, E-mail: BasuP@iarc.fr; Jenson, Alfred Bennett; Majhi, Tapas

Purpose: Because a combination of retinoic acid, interferon-alpha, and radiation therapy demonstrated synergistic action and effectiveness to treat advanced cervical cancers in earlier studies, we designed this randomized phase 2 open-label trial to assess efficacy and safety of interferon alpha-2b (IFN) and 13-cis-retinoic acid (RA) administered concomitantly with radiation therapy (IFN-RA-radiation) to treat stage III cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: Stage III cervical cancer patients were randomized to study and control groups in a 1:1 ratio. All patients were treated with radiation therapy; study arm patients received IFN (3 × 10{sup 6} IU subcutaneously) 3 times a week for 4 weeks and dailymore » RA (40 mg orally) for 30 days starting on day 1 of radiation, whereas control arm patients received weekly cisplatinum (40 mg/m{sup 2}) for 5 weeks during radiation. Patients were followed for 3 years. The primary endpoint was overall survival at 3 years. Results: Patients in the study (n=104) and control (n=105) groups were comparable for clinicopathological characteristics, radiation therapy–related variables and treatment response. Proportions of disease-free patients in the study and control groups were 38.5% and 44.8%, respectively, after median follow-up of 29.2 months. Hazard ratios were 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.44-1.01) and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.44-1.06) for overall and disease-fee survival, respectively, comparing the study group to control, and demonstrated an inferior outcome with RA-IFN-radiation, although differences were statistically nonsignificant. Kaplan-Meier curves of disease-free and overall survival probabilities also showed inferior survival in the study group compared to those in the control. Acute toxicities of chemoradiation were significantly higher with 2 acute toxicity-related deaths. Conclusions: Treatment with RA-IFN-radiation did not demonstrate survival advantage over chemoradiation despite being less toxic. The trends predicted an inferior outcome with the RA-IFN combination.« less

Exfoliative cytology of the oral mucosa in burning mouth syndrome: a cytomorphological and cytomorphometric analysis.

PubMed

Wandeur, Talita; de Moura, Sérgio Adriane Bezerra; de Medeiros, Ana Miryam Costa; Machado, Maria Ângela Naval; Alanis, Luciana Reis de Azevedo; Grégio, Ana Maria Trindade; Trevilatto, Paula Cristina; de Lima, Antonio Adilson Soares

2011-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate oral epithelial cells by exfoliative cytology in burning mouth syndrome (BMS). Oral smears were collected from clinically normal-appearing mucosa by liquid-based exfoliative cytology in 40 individuals (20 BMS patients and 20 healthy controls matched for age and gender) and analysed for cytological and cytomorphometric techniques. Mean values of nuclear area (NA) for experimental and control groups were, respectively, 67.52 and 55.64 μm² (p < 0.05). Cytoplasmic area (CA) showed the following mean values: 1258.0 (experimental) and 2069.0 μm² (control). Nucleus-to-cytoplasm area ratio for the experimental group was 0.07, besides the control group was 0.03 (p < 0.05). Morphologically, oral smears exhibited normal epithelial cells in both experimental and control groups. There was a significant predominance of nucleated cells of the superficial layer in the smears of BMS patients (p = 0.00001). This study revealed that oral mucosa of BMS patients exhibited significant cytomorphometric changes in the oral epithelial cells. These changes probably are associated with epithelial atrophy and a deregulated maturation process that may contribute to the oral symptoms of pain and discomfort in BMS. © 2010 The Gerodontology Society and John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Probability of Alzheimer's disease in breast cancer survivors based on gray-matter structural network efficiency.

PubMed

Kesler, Shelli R; Rao, Vikram; Ray, William J; Rao, Arvind

2017-01-01

Breast cancer chemotherapy is associated with accelerated aging and potentially increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD). We calculated the probability of AD diagnosis from brain network and demographic and genetic data obtained from 47 female AD converters and 47 matched healthy controls. We then applied this algorithm to data from 78 breast cancer survivors. The classifier discriminated between AD and healthy controls with 86% accuracy ( P  < .0001). Chemotherapy-treated breast cancer survivors demonstrated significantly higher probability of AD compared to healthy controls ( P  < .0001) and chemotherapy-naïve survivors ( P  = .007), even after stratifying for apolipoprotein e4 genotype. Chemotherapy-naïve survivors also showed higher AD probability compared to healthy controls ( P  = .014). Chemotherapy-treated breast cancer survivors who have a particular profile of brain structure may have a higher risk for AD, especially those who are older and have lower cognitive reserve.

New S control chart using skewness correction method for monitoring process dispersion of skewed distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atta, Abdu; Yahaya, Sharipah; Zain, Zakiyah; Ahmed, Zalikha

2017-11-01

Control chart is established as one of the most powerful tools in Statistical Process Control (SPC) and is widely used in industries. The conventional control charts rely on normality assumption, which is not always the case for industrial data. This paper proposes a new S control chart for monitoring process dispersion using skewness correction method for skewed distributions, named as SC-S control chart. Its performance in terms of false alarm rate is compared with various existing control charts for monitoring process dispersion, such as scaled weighted variance S chart (SWV-S); skewness correction R chart (SC-R); weighted variance R chart (WV-R); weighted variance S chart (WV-S); and standard S chart (STD-S). Comparison with exact S control chart with regards to the probability of out-of-control detections is also accomplished. The Weibull and gamma distributions adopted in this study are assessed along with the normal distribution. Simulation study shows that the proposed SC-S control chart provides good performance of in-control probabilities (Type I error) in almost all the skewness levels and sample sizes, n. In the case of probability of detection shift the proposed SC-S chart is closer to the exact S control chart than the existing charts for skewed distributions, except for the SC-R control chart. In general, the performance of the proposed SC-S control chart is better than all the existing control charts for monitoring process dispersion in the cases of Type I error and probability of detection shift.

Interaction between body mass index and central adiposity and risk of incident cognitive impairment and dementia: results from the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study.

PubMed

Kerwin, Diana R; Gaussoin, Sarah A; Chlebowski, Rowan T; Kuller, Lewis H; Vitolins, Mara; Coker, Laura H; Kotchen, Jane M; Nicklas, Barbara J; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Hoffmann, Raymond G; Espeland, Mark A

2011-01-01

To assess the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and waist-hip ratio (WHR) and the clinical end points of cognitive impairment and probable dementia in a cohort of older women enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS). Prospective, randomized clinical trial of hormone therapies with annual cognitive assessments and anthropometrics. Fourteen U.S. clinical sites of the WHIMS. Seven thousand one hundred sixty-three postmenopausal women aged 65 to 80 without dementia. Annual cognitive assessments, average follow-up of 4.4 years, including classification of incident cognitive impairment and probable dementia. Height, weight, waist, and hip measurements were assessed at baseline, and a waist-hip ratio (WHR) of 0.8 or greater was used as a marker of central adiposity. There were statistically significant interactions between BMI and WHR and incident cognitive impairment and probable dementia with and without adjustment for a panel of cognitive risk factors. Women with a WHR of 0.80 or greater with a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9 kg/m² had a greater risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia than more-obese women or women with a WHR less than 0.80, although women with a WHR less than 0.80 and a BMI of 20.0 to 24.9 kg/m² had poorer scores on cognitive assessments. WHR affects the relationship between BMI and risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia in older women. Underweight women (BMI < 20.0 kg/m²) with a WHR less than 0.80 had a greater risk than those with higher BMIs. In normal-weight to obese women (20.0-29.9 kg/m², central adiposity (WHR ≥ 0.80) is associated with greater risk of cognitive impairment and probable dementia than in women with higher BMI. These data suggest that central adiposity as a risk factor for cognitive impairment and probable dementia in normal-weight women. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Opium and bladder cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the odds ratios for opium use and the risk of bladder cancer

PubMed Central

Afshari, Mahdi; Janbabaei, Ghasem; Bahrami, Mohammad Amin

2017-01-01

Objective The association between opium use and bladder cancer has been investigated in many studies, with varying reporting results reported. This study aims to estimate the total odds ratio for the association between bladder cancer and opium consumption using meta-analysis. Methods The study was designed according to PRISMA guidelines. Two independent researchers searched for the relevant studies using PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, OVID, Embase, and Google Scholar. After systematic screening of the studies identified during the first step, Cochrane risk of bias tool was determined for the selected studies. The case-control and the cohort studies were investigated to assess risk of bladder cancer due to opium use. In addition, the cross-sectional studies were analysed separately to assess frequency of opium consumption. These estimates were combined using the inverse variance method. Fixed or random effect models were applied to combine the point odds ratios. The heterogeneity between the primary results was assessed using the Cochran test and I-square index. The suspected factors for heterogeneity were investigated using meta-regression models. An Egger test was conducted to identify any probable publication bias. Forest plots illustrated the point and pooled estimates. All analyses were performed using Stata version 14 software and RevMan version 5.3. Results We included 17 primary studies (11 case-control, one cohort and five cross-sectional) in the final meta-analysis. The total odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for developing bladder cancer by opium use alone, and concurrent use of opium and cigarettes were estimated as 3.85 (3.05–4.87) and 5.7 (1.9–16.3) respectively. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for opium use with or without cigarette smoking was estimated as 5.3 (3.6–7.7). Conclusion This meta-analysis showed that opium use similar to cigarette smoking and maybe with similar mechanisms can be a risk factor for bladder cancer. It is therefore expected to be a risk factor for other cancers. PMID:28586371

Impact of probiotic administration on the health and fecal microbiota of young calves: a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of lactic acid bacteria.

PubMed

Signorini, M L; Soto, L P; Zbrun, M V; Sequeira, G J; Rosmini, M R; Frizzo, L S

2012-08-01

Before weaning, dairy calves are susceptible to many pathogens which can affect their subsequent performance. The use of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) has been identified as a tool to maintain the intestinal microbial balance and to prevent the establishment of opportunistic pathogenic bacterial populations. However, a consensus has not been reached as to whether probiotics may be effective in reducing the prevalence of gastrointestinal diseases in young calves. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess the effect of probiotics on diarrhea incidence and the intestinal microbial balance. LAB supplementation has been shown to exert a protective effect and to reduce the incidence of diarrhea (relative risk, RR=0.437, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.251-0.761). In the subanalysis, this protective effect of the probiotics against diarrhea was observed only in trials that used whole milk (RR=0.154, 95% CI 0.079-0.301) and trials that used multistrain inocula (RR=0.415, 95% CI 0.227-0.759). Probiotics did not improve the fecal characteristics (standardized mean difference, SMD=-0.4904, 95% CI -1.011-0.035) and were unable to change the LAB:coliforms ratio (SMD=0.016, 95% CI -0.701-0.733). Probiotics showed a beneficial impact on the LAB:coliforms ratio in the subanalysis that included trials that used whole milk (SMD=0.780, 95% CI 0.141-1.418) and monostrain inocula (SMD=0.990, 95% CI 0.340-1.641). The probability of significant effects (probiotic positive effect) in a new study was >0.70 for diarrhea and fecal consistency. Whole milk feeding improved the action of the probiotic effect on the incidence of diarrhea and LAB:coliforms ratio. The probability to find significant effects in the diarrhea frequency and LAB:coliforms ratio was higher (P>0.85) if the new studies were conducted using whole milk to feed calves. This paper defines the guidelines to standardize the experimental designs of future trials. LAB can be used as growth promoters in calves instead of antibiotics to counteract the negative effects of their widespread use. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variables associated with emergency department and/or unplanned hospital utilization for children with epilepsy.

PubMed

Patel, Anup D

2014-02-01

In the United States, approximately one million people are evaluated annually in an emergency department (ED) for the diagnosis of a seizure or epilepsy. The highest percentages of these patients are less than five years of age. No studies have been performed on assessing potential variables associated with recurrent ED visits and/or unplanned hospitalizations for children with epilepsy. Institutional review board approval from Nationwide Children's Hospital was obtained prior to study initiation. An accountable care organization (ACO), Partner for Kids (PFK), database was searched for patients with the highest and the lowest number of ED visits and/or unplanned hospitalizations from 2007 through 2011 using ICD-9 codes of 345.xx and 780.39. The patients were stratified into a high and a low utilizer group. The total number of visits and their associated health care costs were noted for each patient. In total, 120 patients were included for review. Information on the total number of no-shows to outpatient neurology clinic visits and telephone calls to neurology triage nursing was noted. A chart review was performed by a pediatric epileptologist to determine if each individual patient was an appropriate candidate for an emergency seizure treatment. The dose of emergency seizure medication was cross-checked to the patient's actual dose during the time of ED or hospital presentation to determine if the dose given was high, low, or accurate based on dosing recommendations. Multivariable logistic regression was used to test the effects of factors. When controlling for other factors, patients who were given an incorrect or no emergency seizure dosing had a high probability of having multiple ED visits/unplanned hospitalizations compared with patients who were given correct dosing (odds ratio=11.28, 95% CI of odds ratio=(2.42, 52.63), p value<0.01 (p=0.0021)). Using a similar model, patients who experienced a higher number of no-shows to clinic visits had a higher probability of having multiple ED visits/unplanned hospitalizations (odds ratio=5.73 per 1 more number of no-show, 95% CI of odds ratio=(1.78, 18.44), p value<0.01 (p=0.0034)). Future studies are planned to target these risk factors with the goal of decreased ED and/or hospital utilization for children with epilepsy. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Controllable uncertain opinion diffusion under confidence bound and unpredicted diffusion probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Fuhan; Li, Zhaofeng; Jiang, Yichuan

2016-05-01

The issues of modeling and analyzing diffusion in social networks have been extensively studied in the last few decades. Recently, many studies focus on uncertain diffusion process. The uncertainty of diffusion process means that the diffusion probability is unpredicted because of some complex factors. For instance, the variety of individuals' opinions is an important factor that can cause uncertainty of diffusion probability. In detail, the difference between opinions can influence the diffusion probability, and then the evolution of opinions will cause the uncertainty of diffusion probability. It is known that controlling the diffusion process is important in the context of viral marketing and political propaganda. However, previous methods are hardly feasible to control the uncertain diffusion process of individual opinion. In this paper, we present suitable strategy to control this diffusion process based on the approximate estimation of the uncertain factors. We formulate a model in which the diffusion probability is influenced by the distance between opinions, and briefly discuss the properties of the diffusion model. Then, we present an optimization problem at the background of voting to show how to control this uncertain diffusion process. In detail, it is assumed that each individual can choose one of the two candidates or abstention based on his/her opinion. Then, we present strategy to set suitable initiators and their opinions so that the advantage of one candidate will be maximized at the end of diffusion. The results show that traditional influence maximization algorithms are not applicable to this problem, and our algorithm can achieve expected performance.

Trial type probability modulates the cost of antisaccades

PubMed Central

Chiau, Hui-Yan; Tseng, Philip; Su, Jia-Han; Tzeng, Ovid J. L.; Hung, Daisy L.; Muggleton, Neil G.

2011-01-01

The antisaccade task, where eye movements are made away from a target, has been used to investigate the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. Antisaccades usually have longer saccade latencies than prosaccades, the so-called antisaccade cost. Recent studies have shown that this antisaccade cost can be modulated by event probability. This may mean that the antisaccade cost can be reduced, or even reversed, if the probability of surrounding events favors the execution of antisaccades. The probabilities of prosaccades and antisaccades were systematically manipulated by changing the proportion of a certain type of trial in an interleaved pro/antisaccades task. We aimed to disentangle the intertwined relationship between trial type probabilities and the antisaccade cost with the ultimate goal of elucidating how probabilities of trial types modulate human flexible behaviors, as well as the characteristics of such modulation effects. To this end, we examined whether implicit trial type probability can influence saccade latencies and also manipulated the difficulty of cue discriminability to see how effects of trial type probability would change when the demand on visual perceptual analysis was high or low. A mixed-effects model was applied to the analysis to dissect the factors contributing to the modulation effects of trial type probabilities. Our results suggest that the trial type probability is one robust determinant of antisaccade cost. These findings highlight the importance of implicit probability in the flexibility of cognitive control of behavior. PMID:21543748

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

Detecting Anomalies in Process Control Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rrushi, Julian; Kang, Kyoung-Don

This paper presents the estimation-inspection algorithm, a statistical algorithm for anomaly detection in process control networks. The algorithm determines if the payload of a network packet that is about to be processed by a control system is normal or abnormal based on the effect that the packet will have on a variable stored in control system memory. The estimation part of the algorithm uses logistic regression integrated with maximum likelihood estimation in an inductive machine learning process to estimate a series of statistical parameters; these parameters are used in conjunction with logistic regression formulas to form a probability mass function for each variable stored in control system memory. The inspection part of the algorithm uses the probability mass functions to estimate the normalcy probability of a specific value that a network packet writes to a variable. Experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm is very effective at detecting anomalies in process control networks.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darling, W.G.; Griesshaber, E.; Andrews, J.N.

The Kenya Rift Valley (KRV) is part of a major continental rift system from which much outgassing is presently occurring. Previous research on gases in the KRV has tended to concentrate on their geothermal implications; the present paper is an attempt to broaden the interpretation by consideration of new data including helium and carbon isotope analyses from a wide cross-section of sites. In order to do this, gases have been divided into categories dependent on origin. N{sub 2} and noble gases are for the most part atmospherically derived, although their relative concentrations may be altered from ASW ratios by variousmore » physical processes. Reduced carbon (CH{sub 4} and homologues) appears to be exclusively derived from the shallow crust, with thermogenic {delta}{sup 13}C values averaging -25{per_thousand} PDB for CH{sub 4}. H{sub 2} is likely also to be crustally formed. CO{sub 2}, generally a dominant constituent, has a narrow {delta}{sup 13}C range averaging -3.7{per_thousand} PDB, and is likely to be derived with little modification from the upper mantle. Consideration of the ratio C/{sup 3}He supports this view in most cases. Sulphur probably also originates there. Ratios of {sup 3}He/{sup 4}He reach a MORB-like maximum of 8.0 R/R{sub A} and provide the best indication of an upper mantle source of gases beneath the KRV. A correlation between {sup 3}He/{sup 4}He and the hydrocarbon parameter log (C{sub 1}/{Sigma}C{sub 2-4}) appears to be primarily temperature related. The highest {sup 3}He/{sup 4}He ratios in spring waters are associated with basalts, perhaps because of the leaching of basalt glasses. There may be a structural control on {sup 3}He/{sup 4}He ratios in the KRV as a whole.« less

Genome-wide meta-analysis of common variant differences between men and women

PubMed Central

Boraska, Vesna; Jerončić, Ana; Colonna, Vincenza; Southam, Lorraine; Nyholt, Dale R.; William Rayner, Nigel; Perry, John R.B.; Toniolo, Daniela; Albrecht, Eva; Ang, Wei; Bandinelli, Stefania; Barbalic, Maja; Barroso, Inês; Beckmann, Jacques S.; Biffar, Reiner; Boomsma, Dorret; Campbell, Harry; Corre, Tanguy; Erdmann, Jeanette; Esko, Tõnu; Fischer, Krista; Franceschini, Nora; Frayling, Timothy M.; Girotto, Giorgia; Gonzalez, Juan R.; Harris, Tamara B.; Heath, Andrew C.; Heid, Iris M.; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Hofman, Albert; Horikoshi, Momoko; Hua Zhao, Jing; Jackson, Anne U.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Jula, Antti; Kähönen, Mika; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Kiemeney, Lambertus A.; Klopp, Norman; Kutalik, Zoltán; Lagou, Vasiliki; Launer, Lenore J.; Lehtimäki, Terho; Lemire, Mathieu; Lokki, Marja-Liisa; Loley, Christina; Luan, Jian'an; Mangino, Massimo; Mateo Leach, Irene; Medland, Sarah E.; Mihailov, Evelin; Montgomery, Grant W.; Navis, Gerjan; Newnham, John; Nieminen, Markku S.; Palotie, Aarno; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Peters, Annette; Pirastu, Nicola; Polašek, Ozren; Rehnström, Karola; Ripatti, Samuli; Ritchie, Graham R.S.; Rivadeneira, Fernando; Robino, Antonietta; Samani, Nilesh J.; Shin, So-Youn; Sinisalo, Juha; Smit, Johannes H.; Soranzo, Nicole; Stolk, Lisette; Swinkels, Dorine W.; Tanaka, Toshiko; Teumer, Alexander; Tönjes, Anke; Traglia, Michela; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Valsesia, Armand; van Gilst, Wiek H.; van Meurs, Joyce B.J.; Smith, Albert Vernon; Viikari, Jorma; Vink, Jacqueline M.; Waeber, Gerard; Warrington, Nicole M.; Widen, Elisabeth; Willemsen, Gonneke; Wright, Alan F.; Zanke, Brent W.; Zgaga, Lina; Boehnke, Michael; d'Adamo, Adamo Pio; de Geus, Eco; Demerath, Ellen W.; den Heijer, Martin; Eriksson, Johan G.; Ferrucci, Luigi; Gieger, Christian; Gudnason, Vilmundur; Hayward, Caroline; Hengstenberg, Christian; Hudson, Thomas J.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Kogevinas, Manolis; Loos, Ruth J.F.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Metspalu, Andres; Pennell, Craig E.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Perola, Markus; Raitakari, Olli; Salomaa, Veikko; Schreiber, Stefan; Schunkert, Heribert; Spector, Tim D.; Stumvoll, Michael; Uitterlinden, André G.; Ulivi, Sheila; van der Harst, Pim; Vollenweider, Peter; Völzke, Henry; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Wilson, James F.; Rudan, Igor; Xue, Yali; Zeggini, Eleftheria

2012-01-01

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10−8) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ∼115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits. PMID:22843499

Establishing a sample-to cut-off ratio for lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus in Indian context.

PubMed

Tiwari, Aseem K; Pandey, Prashant K; Negi, Avinash; Bagga, Ruchika; Shanker, Ajay; Baveja, Usha; Vimarsh, Raina; Bhargava, Richa; Dara, Ravi C; Rawat, Ganesh

2015-01-01

Lab-diagnosis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is based on detecting specific antibodies by enzyme immuno-assay (EIA) or chemiluminescence immuno-assay (CIA). Center for Disease Control reported that signal-to-cut-off (s/co) ratios in anti-HCV antibody tests like EIA/CIA can be used to predict the probable result of supplemental test; above a certain s/co value it is most likely to be true-HCV positive result and below that certain s/co it is most likely to be false-positive result. A prospective study was undertaken in patients in tertiary care setting for establishing this "certain" s/co value. The study was carried out in consecutive patients requiring HCV testing for screening/diagnosis and medical management. These samples were tested for anti-HCV on CIA (VITROS(®) Anti-HCV assay, Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics, New Jersey) for calculating s/co value. The supplemental nucleic acid test used was polymerase chain reaction (PCR) (Abbott). PCR test results were used to define true negatives, false negatives, true positives, and false positives. Performance of different putative s/co ratios versus PCR was measured using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value and most appropriate s/co was considered on basis of highest specificity at sensitivity of at least 95%. An s/co ratio of ≥6 worked out to be over 95% sensitive and almost 92% specific in 438 consecutive patient samples tested. The s/co ratio of six can be used for lab-diagnosis of HCV infection; those with s/co higher than six can be diagnosed to have HCV infection without any need for supplemental assays.

The origin of hydrothermal and other gases in the Kenya Rift Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darling, W. G.; Griesshaber, E.; Andrews, J. N.; Armannsson, H.; O'Nions, R. K.

1995-06-01

The Kenya Rift Valley (KRV) is part of a major continental rift system from which much outgassing is presently occurring. Previous research on gases in the KRV has tended to concentrate on their geothermal implications; the present paper is an attempt to broaden the interpretation by consideration of new data including helium and carbon isotope analyses from a wide cross-section of sites. In order to do this, gases have been divided into categories dependent on origin. N 2 and noble gases are for the most part atmospherically derived, although their relative concentrations may be altered from ASW ratios by various physical processes. Reduced carbon (CH 4 and homologues) appears to be exclusively derived from the shallow crust, with thermogenic δ 13C values averaging -25‰ PDB for CH 4. H 2 is likely also to be crustally formed. CO 2, generally a dominant constituent, has a narrow δ 13C range averaging -3.7‰ PDB, and is likely to be derived with little modification from the upper mantle. Consideration of the ratio C/ 3He supports this view in most cases. Sulphur probably also originates there. Ratios of 3He/ 4He reach a MORB-like maximum of 8.0 R/RA and provide the best indication of an upper mantle source of gases beneath the KRV. A correlation between 3He/ 4He and the hydrocarbon parameter log (C 1/ΣC 2-4) appears to be primarily temperature related. The highest 3He/ 4He ratios in spring waters are associated with basalts, perhaps because of the leaching of basalt glasses. There may be a structural control on 3He/ 4He ratios in the KRV as a whole.

Identical twins in forensic genetics - Epidemiology and risk based estimation of weight of evidence.

PubMed

Tvedebrink, Torben; Morling, Niels

2015-12-01

The increase in the number of forensic genetic loci used for identification purposes results in infinitesimal random match probabilities. These probabilities are computed under assumptions made for rather simple population genetic models. Often, the forensic expert reports likelihood ratios, where the alternative hypothesis is assumed not to encompass close relatives. However, this approach implies that important factors present in real human populations are discarded. This approach may be very unfavourable to the defendant. In this paper, we discuss some important aspects concerning the closest familial relationship, i.e., identical (monozygotic) twins, when reporting the weight of evidence. This can be done even when the suspect has no knowledge of an identical twin or when official records hold no twin information about the suspect. The derived expressions are not original as several authors previously have published results accounting for close familial relationships. However, we revisit the discussion to increase the awareness among forensic genetic practitioners and include new information on medical and societal factors to assess the risk of not considering a monozygotic twin as the true perpetrator. If accounting for a monozygotic twin in the weight of evidence, it implies that the likelihood ratio is truncated at a maximal value depending on the prevalence of monozygotic twins and the societal efficiency of recognising a monozygotic twin. If a monozygotic twin is considered as an alternative proposition, then data relevant for the Danish society suggests that the threshold of likelihood ratios should approximately be between 150,000 and 2,000,000 in order to take the risk of an unrecognised identical, monozygotic twin into consideration. In other societies, the threshold of the likelihood ratio in crime cases may reach other, often lower, values depending on the recognition of monozygotic twins and the age of the suspect. In general, more strictly kept registries will imply larger thresholds on the likelihood ratio as the monozygotic twin explanation gets less probable. Copyright © 2015 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated comparison of the pharmacodynamics of ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin against Pseudomonas aeruginosa using pharmacokinetic data from healthy volunteers and 2002 minimum inhibitory concentration data.

PubMed

Burgess, David S; Hall, Ronald G

2007-07-01

Until the 2002 approval of levofloxacin 750 mg QD, ciprofloxacin was the fluoroquinolone of choice against Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections. This study evaluated the AUC:MIC ratios for ciprofloxacin 400 mg BID and TID and levofloxacin 750 mg QD, all administered intravenously, against P. aeruginosa using a Monte Carlo simulation. Pharmacokinetic data for ciprofloxacin and levofloxacin and 2002 MIC distributions against P. aeruginosa were obtained from studies in healthy volunteers published in the peer-reviewed literature. Pharmacokinetic studies of each agent were identified by separate MEDLINE searches combining the MeSH heading pharmacokinetics with the generic name of the antimicrobial. Only human studies published in English between 1990 and 2001 were included. Included studies also had to meet 3 minimum criteria: evaluation of clinically relevant dosing regimens, use of rigorous study methods, and provision of mean (SD) values for the pharmacokinetic parameters of interest. When multiple studies met these criteria, a single study was selected for each antimicrobial regimen. Pharmacodynamic analysis was performed using a Monte Carlo simulation of 10,000 patients by integrating the pharmacokinetic parameters, their variability, and 2002 MIC distributions for each antimicrobial regimen. The probability of target attainment was determined for each regimen for an AUC:MIC ratio from 0 to 300. A > or =90% probability of target attainment was considered satisfactory. For ciprofloxacin 400 mg TID and levofloxacin 750 mg QD, the AUC:MIC ratio at the corresponding 2002 Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute break points of 1 and 2 microg/mL were 33 and 34, respectively. The probabilities of target attainment for a free AUC:MIC ratio >90 (equivalent to a total AUC:MIC ratio > or =125) were 47% for ciprofloxacin 400 mg BID, 54% for ciprofloxacin 400 mg TID, and 48% for levofloxacin 750 mg QD. When pharmacokinetic data from healthy volunteers and 2002 MIC data were used, none of the simulated fluoroquinolone regimens achieved a high likelihood of target attainment against P. aeruginosa.

Stable isotope, chemical, and mineral compositions of the Middle Proterozoic Lijiaying Mn deposit, Shaanxi Province, China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeh, Hsueh-Wen; Hein, James R.; Ye, Jie; Fan, Delian

1999-01-01

The Lijiaying Mn deposit, located about 250 km southwest of Xian, is a high-quality ore characterized by low P and Fe contents and a mean Mn content of about 23%. The ore deposit occurs in shallow-water marine sedimentary rocks of probable Middle Proterozoic age. Carbonate minerals in the ore deposit include kutnahorite, calcite, Mn calcite, and Mg calcite. Carbon (−0.4 to −4.0‰) and oxygen (−3.7 to −12.9‰) isotopes show that, with a few exceptions, those carbonate minerals are not pristine low-temperature marine precipitates. All samples are depleted in rare earth elements (REEs) relative to shale and have negative Eu and positive Ce anomalies on chondrite-normalized plots. The Fe/Mn ratios of representative ore samples range from about 0.034 to <0.008 and P/Mn from 0.0023 to <0.001. Based on mineralogical data, the low ends of those ranges of ratios are probably close to ratios for the pure Mn minerals. Manganese contents have a strong positive correlation with Ce anomaly values and a moderate correlation with total REE contents. Compositional data indicate that kutnahorite is a metamorphic mineral and that most calcites formed as low-temperature marine carbonates that were subsequently metamorphosed. The braunite ore precursor mineral was probably a Mn oxyhydroxide, similar to those that formed on the deep ocean-floor during the Cenozoic. Because the Lijiaying precursor mineral formed in a shallow-water marine environment, the atmospheric oxygen content during the Middle Proterozoic may have been lower than it has been during the Cenozoic.

Quantitative screening of yeast surface-displayed polypeptide libraries by magnetic bead capture.

PubMed

Yeung, Yik A; Wittrup, K Dane

2002-01-01

Magnetic bead capture is demonstrated here to be a feasible alternative for quantitative screening of favorable mutants from a cell-displayed polypeptide library. Flow cytometric sorting with fluorescent probes has been employed previously for high throughput screening for either novel binders or improved mutants. However, many laboratories do not have ready access to this technology as a result of the limited availability and high cost of cytometers, restricting the use of cell-displayed libraries. Using streptavidin-coated magnetic beads and biotinylated ligands, an alternative approach to cell-based library screening for improved mutants was developed. Magnetic bead capture probability of labeled cells is shown to be closely correlated with the surface ligand density. A single-pass enrichment ratio of 9400 +/- 1800-fold, at the expense of 85 +/- 6% binder losses, is achieved from screening a library that contains one antibody-displaying cell (binder) in 1.1 x 10(5) nondisplaying cells. Additionally, kinetic screening for an initial high affinity to low affinity (7.7-fold lower) mutant ratio of 1:95,000, the magnetic bead capture method attains a single-pass enrichment ratio of 600 +/- 200-fold with a 75 +/- 24% probability of loss for the higher affinity mutant. The observed high loss probabilities can be straightforwardly compensated for by library oversampling, given the inherently parallel nature of the screen. Overall, these results demonstrate that magnetic beads are capable of quantitatively screening for novel binders and improved mutants. The described methods are directly analogous to procedures in common use for phage display and should lower the barriers to entry for use of cell surface display libraries.

Many tests of significance: new methods for controlling type I errors.

PubMed

Keselman, H J; Miller, Charles W; Holland, Burt

2011-12-01

There have been many discussions of how Type I errors should be controlled when many hypotheses are tested (e.g., all possible comparisons of means, correlations, proportions, the coefficients in hierarchical models, etc.). By and large, researchers have adopted familywise (FWER) control, though this practice certainly is not universal. Familywise control is intended to deal with the multiplicity issue of computing many tests of significance, yet such control is conservative--that is, less powerful--compared to per test/hypothesis control. The purpose of our article is to introduce the readership, particularly those readers familiar with issues related to controlling Type I errors when many tests of significance are computed, to newer methods that provide protection from the effects of multiple testing, yet are more powerful than familywise controlling methods. Specifically, we introduce a number of procedures that control the k-FWER. These methods--say, 2-FWER instead of 1-FWER (i.e., FWER)--are equivalent to specifying that the probability of 2 or more false rejections is controlled at .05, whereas FWER controls the probability of any (i.e., 1 or more) false rejections at .05. 2-FWER implicitly tolerates 1 false rejection and makes no explicit attempt to control the probability of its occurrence, unlike FWER, which tolerates no false rejections at all. More generally, k-FWER tolerates k - 1 false rejections, but controls the probability of k or more false rejections at α =.05. We demonstrate with two published data sets how more hypotheses can be rejected with k-FWER methods compared to FWER control.

The predictive value of chronic kidney disease for assessing cardiovascular events under consideration of pretest probability for coronary artery disease in patients who underwent stress myocardial perfusion imaging.

PubMed

Furuhashi, Tatsuhiko; Moroi, Masao; Joki, Nobuhiko; Hase, Hiroki; Masai, Hirofumi; Kunimasa, Taeko; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Sugi, Kaoru

2013-02-01

Pretest probability of coronary artery disease (CAD) facilitates diagnosis and risk stratification of CAD. Stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) are established major predictors of cardiovascular events. However, the role of CKD to assess pretest probability of CAD has been unclear. This study evaluates the role of CKD to assess the predictive value of cardiovascular events under consideration of pretest probability in patients who underwent stress MPI. Patients with no history of CAD underwent stress MPI (n = 310; male = 166; age = 70; CKD = 111; low/intermediate/high pretest probability = 17/194/99) and were followed for 24 months. Cardiovascular events included cardiac death and nonfatal acute coronary syndrome. Cardiovascular events occurred in 15 of the 310 patients (4.8 %), but not in those with low pretest probability which included 2 CKD patients. In patients with intermediate to high pretest probability (n = 293), multivariate Cox regression analysis identified only CKD [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.88; P = 0.022) and summed stress score of stress MPI (HR = 1.50; P < 0.001) as independent and significant predictors of cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular events were not observed in patients with low pretest probability. In patients with intermediate to high pretest probability, CKD and stress MPI are independent predictors of cardiovascular events considering the pretest probability of CAD in patients with no history of CAD. In assessing pretest probability of CAD, CKD might be an important factor for assessing future cardiovascular prognosis.

Simple and compact expressions for neutrino oscillation probabilities in matter

DOE PAGES

Minakata, Hisakazu; Parke, Stephen J.

2016-01-29

We reformulate perturbation theory for neutrino oscillations in matter with an expansion parameter related to the ratio of the solar to the atmospheric Δm 2 scales. Unlike previous works, use a renormalized basis in which certain first-order effects are taken into account in the zeroth-order Hamiltonian. Using this perturbation theory we derive extremely compact expressions for the neutrino oscillations probabilities in matter. We find, for example, that the ν e disappearance probability at this order is of a simple two flavor form with an appropriately identified mixing angle and Δm 2. Furthermore, despite exceptional simplicity in their forms they accommodatemore » all order effects θ 13 and the matter potential.« less

Reconstructing missing information on precipitation datasets: impact of tails on adopted statistical distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedretti, Daniele; Beckie, Roger Daniel

2014-05-01

Missing data in hydrological time-series databases are ubiquitous in practical applications, yet it is of fundamental importance to make educated decisions in problems involving exhaustive time-series knowledge. This includes precipitation datasets, since recording or human failures can produce gaps in these time series. For some applications, directly involving the ratio between precipitation and some other quantity, lack of complete information can result in poor understanding of basic physical and chemical dynamics involving precipitated water. For instance, the ratio between precipitation (recharge) and outflow rates at a discharge point of an aquifer (e.g. rivers, pumping wells, lysimeters) can be used to obtain aquifer parameters and thus to constrain model-based predictions. We tested a suite of methodologies to reconstruct missing information in rainfall datasets. The goal was to obtain a suitable and versatile method to reduce the errors given by the lack of data in specific time windows. Our analyses included both a classical chronologically-pairing approach between rainfall stations and a probability-based approached, which accounted for the probability of exceedence of rain depths measured at two or multiple stations. Our analyses proved that it is not clear a priori which method delivers the best methodology. Rather, this selection should be based considering the specific statistical properties of the rainfall dataset. In this presentation, our emphasis is to discuss the effects of a few typical parametric distributions used to model the behavior of rainfall. Specifically, we analyzed the role of distributional "tails", which have an important control on the occurrence of extreme rainfall events. The latter strongly affect several hydrological applications, including recharge-discharge relationships. The heavy-tailed distributions we considered were parametric Log-Normal, Generalized Pareto, Generalized Extreme and Gamma distributions. The methods were first tested on synthetic examples, to have a complete control of the impact of several variables such as minimum amount of data required to obtain reliable statistical distributions from the selected parametric functions. Then, we applied the methodology to precipitation datasets collected in the Vancouver area and on a mining site in Peru.

Maternity leave in the ninth month of pregnancy and birth outcomes among working women.

PubMed

Guendelman, Sylvia; Pearl, Michelle; Graham, Steve; Hubbard, Alan; Hosang, Nap; Kharrazi, Martin

2009-01-01

The health effects of antenatal maternity leave have been scarcely evaluated. In California, women are eligible for paid benefits up to 4 weeks before delivery. We explored whether leave at > or =36 weeks gestation increases gestation and birthweight, and reduces primary cesarean deliveries among full-time working women. Drawing from a 2002--2003 nested case-control study of preterm birth and low birthweight among working women in Southern California, we compared a cohort of women who took leave (n = 62) or worked until delivery (n = 385). Models weighted for probability of sampling were used to calculate hazards ratios for gestational age, odds ratios (OR) for primary cesarean delivery, and multilinear regression coefficients for birthweight. Leave-takers were similar to non-leave-takers on demographic and health characteristics, except that more clerical workers took leave (p = .02). Compared with non-leave-takers, leave-takers had almost 4 times lower odds of cesarean delivery after adjusting for covariates (OR, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.08-0.94). Overall, there were no marked differences in length of gestation or mean birthweight. However, in a subgroup of women whose efforts outstripped their occupational rewards, gestation was prolonged (hazard ratio for delivery each day between 36 and 41 weeks, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.93). Maternity leave in late pregnancy shows promise for reducing cesarean deliveries and prolonging gestation in occupationally strained women.

Depth of word processing in Alzheimer patients and normal controls: a magnetoencephalographic (MEG) study.

PubMed

Walla, P; Püregger, E; Lehrner, J; Mayer, D; Deecke, L; Dal Bianco, P

2005-05-01

Effects related to depth of verbal information processing were investigated in probable Alzheimer's disease patients (AD) and age matched controls. During word encoding sessions 10 patients and 10 controls had either to decide whether the letter "s" appeared in visually presented words (alphabetical decision, shallow encoding), or whether the meaning of each presented word was animate or inanimate (lexical decision, deep encoding). These encoding sessions were followed by test sessions during which all previously encoded words were presented again together with the same number of new words. The task was then to discriminate between repeated and new words. Magnetic field changes related to brain activity were recorded with a whole cortex MEG.5 probable AD patients showed recognition performances above chance level related to both depths of information processing. Those patients and 5 age matched controls were then further analysed. Recognition performance was poorer in probable AD patients compared to controls for both levels of processing. However, in both groups deep encoding led to a higher recognition performance than shallow encoding. We therefore conclude that the performance reduction in the patient group was independent of depth of processing. Reaction times related to false alarms differed between patients and controls after deep encoding which perhaps could already be used for supporting an early diagnosis. The analysis of the physiological data revealed significant differences between correctly recognised repetitions and correctly classified new words (old/new-effect) in the control group which were missing in the patient group after deep encoding. The lack of such an effect in the patient group is interpreted as being due to the respective neuropathology related to probable AD. The present results demonstrate that magnetic field recordings represent a useful tool to physiologically distinguish between probable AD and age matched controls.

Yonsei nomogram: A predictive model of new-onset chronic kidney disease after on-clamp partial nephrectomy in patients with T1 renal tumors.

PubMed

Abdel Raheem, Ali; Shin, Tae Young; Chang, Ki Don; Santok, Glen Denmer R; Alenzi, Mohamed Jayed; Yoon, Young Eun; Ham, Won Sik; Han, Woong Kyu; Choi, Young Deuk; Rha, Koon Ho

2018-06-19

To develop a predictive nomogram for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability in the long term after partial nephrectomy. A retrospective analysis was carried out of 698 patients with T1 renal tumors undergoing partial nephrectomy at a tertiary academic institution. A multivariable Cox regression analysis was carried out based on parameters proven to have an impact on postoperative renal function. Patients with incomplete data, <12 months follow up and preoperative chronic kidney disease stage III or greater were excluded. The study end-points were to identify independent risk factors for new-onset chronic kidney disease development, as well as to construct a predictive model for chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after partial nephrectomy. The median age was 52 years, median tumor size was 2.5 cm and mean warm ischemia time was 28 min. A total of 91 patients (13.1%) developed new-onset chronic kidney disease at a median follow up of 60 months. The chronic kidney disease-free survival rates at 1, 3, 5 and 10 year were 97.1%, 94.4%, 85.3% and 70.6%, respectively. On multivariable Cox regression analysis, age (1.041, P = 0.001), male sex (hazard ratio 1.653, P < 0.001), diabetes mellitus (hazard ratio 1.921, P = 0.046), tumor size (hazard ratio 1.331, P < 0.001) and preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (hazard ratio 0.937, P < 0.001) were independent predictors for new-onset chronic kidney disease. The C-index for chronic kidney disease-free survival was 0.853 (95% confidence interval 0.815-0.895). We developed a novel nomogram for predicting the 5-year chronic kidney disease-free survival probability after on-clamp partial nephrectomy. This model might have an important role in partial nephrectomy decision-making and follow-up plan after surgery. External validation of our nomogram in a larger cohort of patients should be considered. © 2018 The Japanese Urological Association.

Effect of atherothrombotic aorta on outcomes of total aortic arch replacement.

PubMed

Okada, Kenji; Omura, Atsushi; Kano, Hiroya; Inoue, Takeshi; Oka, Takanori; Minami, Hitoshi; Okita, Yutaka

2013-04-01

The effect of an atherothrombotic aorta on the short- and long-term outcomes of total aortic arch replacement, including postoperative neurologic deficits, remains unknown. We evaluated this relationship and also elucidated the synergistic effect of multiple other risk factors, in addition to an atherothrombotic aorta, on the neurologic outcome. A group of 179 consecutive patients undergoing total aortic arch replacement were studied. An atherothrombotic aorta was present in 34 patients (19%), more than moderate leukoaraiosis in 71 (39.7%), and significant extracranial carotid artery stenosis in 27 (15.1%). In-hospital deaths occurred in 2 patients, 1 (2.9%) of 34 patients with and 1 (0.7%) of 145 patients without an atherothrombotic aorta (P = .26). Permanent neurologic deficits occurred in 4 (2.2%) and transient neurologic deficits in 17 (9.5%) patients. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the risk factors for transient neurologic deficits were an atherothrombotic aorta (odds ratio, 4.4), extracranial carotid artery stenosis (odds ratio, 5.5), moderate/severe leukoaraiosis (odds ratio, 3.6), and cardiopulmonary bypass time (odds ratio, 1.02). To calculate the probability of transient neurologic deficits, the following equation was derived: probability of transient neurologic deficits = {1 + exp [7.276 - 1.489 (atherothrombotic aorta) - 1.285 (leukoaraiosis) - 1.701 (extracranial carotid artery stenosis) - 0.017 (cardiopulmonary bypass time)]}(-1). An exponential increase occurred in the probability of transient neurologic deficits with presence of an atherothrombotic aorta and other risk factors in relation to the cardiopulmonary bypass time. Survival at 3 years after surgery was significantly reduced in patients with vs without an atherothrombotic aorta (75.0% ± 8.8% vs 89.2% ± 3.1%, P = .01). Patients with an atherothrombotic aorta and associated preoperative comorbidities might be predisposed to adverse short- and long-term outcomes, including transient neurologic deficits. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid status during pregnancy and maternal mental health in pregnancy and the postpartum period: results from the GUSTO study.

PubMed

Chong, Mary F F; Ong, Yi-Lin; Calder, Philip C; Colega, Marjorelee; Wong, Jocelyn X Y; Tan, Chuen Seng; Lim, Ai Lin; Fisk, Helena L; Cai, Shirong; Pang, Wei Wei; Broekman, Birit F P; Saw, Seang Mei; Kwek, Kenneth; Godfrey, Keith M; Chong, Yap-Seng; Gluckman, Peter; Meaney, Michael J; Chen, Helen

2015-07-01

Studies have demonstrated a relationship between lower omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid (LC-PUFA) status and anxiety and depression. It is uncertain whether similar associations occur in pregnant women, when anxiety and depression could have long-term effects on the offspring. We examined the associations between plasma LC-PUFA status during pregnancy and perinatal mental health. At 26-28 weeks' gestation, plasma LC-PUFAs were measured in mothers of the Growing Up in Singapore Toward healthy Outcomes (GUSTO) mother-offspring cohort study, who were recruited between June 2009 and September 2010. Maternal symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed with the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) during the same period and at 3 months' postpartum. The STAI-state subscale was used as a continuous measure of current anxiety, while EPDS scores ≥ 15 during pregnancy or ≥ 13 postpartum were indicative of symptoms of probable depression. In adjusted regression analyses (n = 698), lower plasma total omega-3 PUFA concentrations (β = -6.49 STAI-state subscale scores/unit increase of omega-3 fatty acid; 95% CI, -11.90 to -1.08) and higher plasma omega-6:omega-3 PUFA ratios (β = 6.58 scores/unit increase of fatty acid ratio; 95% CI, 1.19 to 12.66), specifically higher arachidonic acid (AA):docosahexaenoic acid, AA:eicosapentaenoic acid, and AA:docosapentaenoic acid ratios, were associated with increased antenatal anxiety (P < .05 for all), but not postpartum anxiety. There was no association between plasma PUFAs and perinatal probable depression. No association was found with probable depression in pregnancy or postpartum. Lower plasma omega-3 fatty acids and higher omega-6:omega-3 fatty acid ratios were associated with higher antenatal anxiety, but not postpartum anxiety. Replication in other studies is needed to confirm the findings and determine the direction of causality. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01174875. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Automated segmentation of ultrasonic breast lesions using statistical texture classification and active contour based on probability distance.

PubMed

Liu, Bo; Cheng, H D; Huang, Jianhua; Tian, Jiawei; Liu, Jiafeng; Tang, Xianglong

2009-08-01

Because of its complicated structure, low signal/noise ratio, low contrast and blurry boundaries, fully automated segmentation of a breast ultrasound (BUS) image is a difficult task. In this paper, a novel segmentation method for BUS images without human intervention is proposed. Unlike most published approaches, the proposed method handles the segmentation problem by using a two-step strategy: ROI generation and ROI segmentation. First, a well-trained texture classifier categorizes the tissues into different classes, and the background knowledge rules are used for selecting the regions of interest (ROIs) from them. Second, a novel probability distance-based active contour model is applied for segmenting the ROIs and finding the accurate positions of the breast tumors. The active contour model combines both global statistical information and local edge information, using a level set approach. The proposed segmentation method was performed on 103 BUS images (48 benign and 55 malignant). To validate the performance, the results were compared with the corresponding tumor regions marked by an experienced radiologist. Three error metrics, true-positive ratio (TP), false-negative ratio (FN) and false-positive ratio (FP) were used for measuring the performance of the proposed method. The final results (TP = 91.31%, FN = 8.69% and FP = 7.26%) demonstrate that the proposed method can segment BUS images efficiently, quickly and automatically.

The ratio of N-acetyl aspartate to glutamate correlates with disease duration of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Sako, Wataru; Abe, Takashi; Izumi, Yuishin; Harada, Masafumi; Kaji, Ryuji

2016-05-01

Glutamate (Glu)-induced excitotoxicity has been implicated in the neuronal loss of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. To test the hypothesis that Glu in the primary motor cortex contributes to disease severity and/or duration, the Glu level was investigated using MR spectroscopy. Seventeen patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis were diagnosed according to the El Escorial criteria for suspected, possible, probable or definite amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and enrolled in this cross-sectional study. We measured metabolite concentrations, including N-acetyl aspartate (NAA), creatine, choline, inositol, Glu and glutamine, and performed partial correlation between each metabolite concentration or NAA/Glu ratio and disease severity or duration using age as a covariate. Considering our hypothesis that Glu is associated with neuronal cell death in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, we investigated the ratio of NAA to Glu, and found a significant correlation between NAA/Glu and disease duration (r=-0.574, p=0.02). The "suspected" amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients showed the same tendency as possible, probable and definite amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients in regard to correlation of NAA/Glu ratio with disease duration. The other metabolites showed no significant correlation. Our findings suggested that glutamatergic neurons are less vulnerable compared to other neurons and this may be because inhibitory receptors are mainly located presynaptically, which supports the notion of Glu-induced excitotoxicity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Major and trace element chemistry of separated fragments from a hibonite-bearing Allende inclusion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, A. M.; Grossman, L.; Allen, J. M.

1978-01-01

The major and trace elements of separated fragments and a bulk sample from CG-11, a hibonite-bearing inclusion in the Allende meteorite, were analyzed. Major element abundances were used to determine the minerology of separated fragments. The high degree of correlation between Eu/Sm ratios and Lu/Yb ratios for the samples studied indicates that their rare earth element (REE) distributions are governed by two components. One, Lu-, Eu-rich, is probably hibonite; the other, depleted in these elements, seems to be associated with the secondary alteration phases, grossular, nepheline and anorthite. The REE distribution in CG-11 precludes melting events after formation of the secondary alteration phases, but a melting event involving the primary minerals cannot be excluded. The enrichment of Lu with respect to other measured REE in hibonite can be explained by present REE condensation models. Two Hf-bearing components, most likely hibonite and perovskite, are necessary to account for variations in Sc/Hf ratios in the fragments studied. The lithophile volatiles Na, Mn, Fe, Zn, and probably Cr increase in the same order as the amount of secondary alteration minerals; the volatile siderophile elements Co and Au, however, do not.

Long-term use of standardised Ginkgo biloba extract for the prevention of Alzheimer's disease (GuidAge): a randomised placebo-controlled trial.

PubMed

Vellas, Bruno; Coley, Nicola; Ousset, Pierre-Jean; Berrut, Gilles; Dartigues, Jean-François; Dubois, Bruno; Grandjean, Hélène; Pasquier, Florence; Piette, François; Robert, Philippe; Touchon, Jacques; Garnier, Philippe; Mathiex-Fortunet, Hélène; Andrieu, Sandrine

2012-10-01

Prevention strategies are urgently needed to tackle the growing burden of Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to assess efficacy of long-term use of standardised ginkgo biloba extract for the reduction of incidence of Alzheimer's disease in elderly adults with memory complaints. In the randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled GuidAge clinical trial, we enrolled adults aged 70 years or older who spontaneously reported memory complaints to their primary-care physician in France. We randomly allocated participants in a 1:1 ratio according to a computer-generated sequence to a twice per day dose of 120 mg standardised ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761) or matched placebo. Participants and study investigators and personnel were masked to study group assignment. Participants were followed-up for 5 years by primary-care physicians and in expert memory centres. The primary outcome was conversion to probable Alzheimer's disease in participants who received at least one dose of study drug or placebo, compared by use of the log-rank test. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00276510. Between March, 2002, and November, 2004, we enrolled and randomly allocated 2854 participants, of whom 1406 received at least one dose of ginkgo biloba extract and 1414 received at least one dose of placebo. By 5 years, 61 participants in the ginkgo group had been diagnosed with probable Alzheimer's disease (1·2 cases per 100 person-years) compared with 73 participants in the placebo group (1·4 cases per 100 person-years; hazard ratio [HR] 0·84, 95% CI 0·60-1·18; p=0·306), but the risk was not proportional over time. Incidence of adverse events was much the same between groups. 76 participants in the ginkgo group died compared with 82 participants in the placebo group (0·94, 0·69-1·28; p=0·68). 65 participants in the ginkgo group had a stroke compared with 60 participants in the placebo group (risk ratio 1·12, 95% CI 0·77-1·63; p=0·57). Incidence of other haemorrhagic or cardiovascular events also did not differ between groups. Long-term use of standardised ginkgo biloba extract in this trial did not reduce the risk of progression to Alzheimer's disease compared with placebo. Ipsen. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Repeat migration and disappointment.

PubMed

Grant, E K; Vanderkamp, J

1986-01-01

This article investigates the determinants of repeat migration among the 44 regions of Canada, using information from a large micro-database which spans the period 1968 to 1971. The explanation of repeat migration probabilities is a difficult task, and this attempt is only partly successful. May of the explanatory variables are not significant, and the overall explanatory power of the equations is not high. In the area of personal characteristics, the variables related to age, sex, and marital status are generally significant and with expected signs. The distance variable has a strongly positive effect on onward move probabilities. Variables related to prior migration experience have an important impact that differs between return and onward probabilities. In particular, the occurrence of prior moves has a striking effect on the probability of onward migration. The variable representing disappointment, or relative success of the initial move, plays a significant role in explaining repeat migration probabilities. The disappointment variable represents the ratio of actural versus expected wage income in the year after the initial move, and its effect on both repeat migration probabilities is always negative and almost always highly significant. The repeat probabilities diminish after a year's stay in the destination region, but disappointment in the most recent year still has a bearing on the delayed repeat probabilities. While the quantitative impact of the disappointment variable is not large, it is difficult to draw comparisons since similar estimates are not available elsewhere.

Diversity Order Analysis of Dual-Hop Relaying with Partial Relay Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Vo Nguyen Quoc; Kong, Hyung Yun

In this paper, we study the performance of dual hop relaying in which the best relay selected by partial relay selection will help the source-destination link to overcome the channel impairment. Specifically, closed-form expressions for outage probability, symbol error probability and achievable diversity gain are derived using the statistical characteristic of the signal-to-noise ratio. Numerical investigation shows that the system achieves diversity of two regardless of relay number and also confirms the correctness of the analytical results. Furthermore, the performance loss due to partial relay selection is investigated.

Two-year effects of a school-based prevention programme on adolescent cigarette smoking in Guangzhou, China: a cluster randomized trial

PubMed Central

Wen, Xiaozhong; Chen, Weiqing; Gans, Kim M; Colby, Suzanne M; Lu, Ciyong; Liang, Caihua; Ling, Wenhua

2010-01-01

Background The prevalence of adolescent smoking has been increasing rapidly in China. Theory-based smoking prevention programmes in schools may be an effective approach in preventing smoking among Chinese adolescents. Methods A school-level cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted among 7th and 8th grade students (N = 2343) in four junior high schools in southern China during 2004–06. The theory-based, multi-level intervention was compared with the standard health curriculum. Outcome measures comprised changes in students’ smoking-related knowledge, attitudes and behaviour. Results The mean knowledge scores from baseline to the 1- and 2-year follow-ups increased more in the intervention group than in the control group, whereas there was little change in attitude scores. At the 1-year follow-up (the total sample), the interventions reduced the probability of baseline experimental smokers’ escalating to regular smoker [7.9 vs 18.3%; adjusted odds ratio (OR) 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.12–0.97, P = 0.043], but did not reduce the probability of baseline non-smokers’ initiating smoking (7.9 vs 10.6%; adjusted OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.54–1.38, P = 0.538). At the 2-year follow-up (only 7th grade students), similar proportions of baseline non-smokers initiated smoking in the intervention group and the control group (13.5 vs 13.1%), while a possibly lower proportion of baseline experimental smokers escalated to regular smoking in the intervention group than the control group (22.6 vs 40.0%; adjusted OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.12–1.57, P = 0.199). Conclusions This multi-level intervention programme had a moderate effect on inhibiting the escalation from experimental to regular smoking among Chinese adolescents, but had little effect on the initiation of smoking. The programme improved adolescents’ smoking-related knowledge, but did not change their attitudes towards smoking. PMID:20236984

Elastic Rock Heterogeneity Controls Brittle Rock Failure during Hydraulic Fracturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langenbruch, C.; Shapiro, S. A.

2014-12-01

For interpretation and inversion of microseismic data it is important to understand, which properties of the reservoir rock control the occurrence probability of brittle rock failure and associated seismicity during hydraulic stimulation. This is especially important, when inverting for key properties like permeability and fracture conductivity. Although it became accepted that seismic events are triggered by fluid flow and the resulting perturbation of the stress field in the reservoir rock, the magnitude of stress perturbations, capable of triggering failure in rocks, can be highly variable. The controlling physical mechanism of this variability is still under discussion. We compare the occurrence of microseismic events at the Cotton Valley gas field to elastic rock heterogeneity, obtained from measurements along the treatment wells. The heterogeneity is characterized by scale invariant fluctuations of elastic properties. We observe that the elastic heterogeneity of the rock formation controls the occurrence of brittle failure. In particular, we find that the density of events is increasing with the Brittleness Index (BI) of the rock, which is defined as a combination of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. We evaluate the physical meaning of the BI. By applying geomechanical investigations we characterize the influence of fluctuating elastic properties in rocks on the probability of brittle rock failure. Our analysis is based on the computation of stress fluctuations caused by elastic heterogeneity of rocks. We find that elastic rock heterogeneity causes stress fluctuations of significant magnitude. Moreover, the stress changes necessary to open and reactivate fractures in rocks are strongly related to fluctuations of elastic moduli. Our analysis gives a physical explanation to the observed relation between elastic heterogeneity of the rock formation and the occurrence of brittle failure during hydraulic reservoir stimulations. A crucial factor for understanding seismicity in unconventional reservoirs is the role of anisotropy of rocks. We evaluate an elastic VTI rock model corresponding to a shale gas reservoir in the Horn River Basin to understand the relation between stress, event occurrence and elastic heterogeneity in anisotropic rocks.

Risk factors and predictors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit patients: implications for prevention.

PubMed

Zaoutis, Theoklis E; Prasad, Priya A; Localio, A Russell; Coffin, Susan E; Bell, Louis M; Walsh, Thomas J; Gross, Robert

2010-09-01

Candida species are the leading cause of invasive fungal infections in hospitalized children and are the third most common isolates recovered from patients with healthcare-associated bloodstream infection in the United States. Few data exist on risk factors for candidemia in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. We conducted a population-based case-control study of PICU patients at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia during the period from 1997 through 2004. Case patients were identified using laboratory records, and control patients were selected from PICU rosters. Control patients were matched to case patients by incidence density sampling, adjusting for time at risk. Following conditional multivariate analysis, we performed weighted multivariate analysis to determine predicted probabilities for candidemia given certain risk factor combinations. We identified 101 case patients with candidemia (incidence, 3.5 cases per 1000 PICU admissions). Factors independently associated with candidemia included presence of a central venous catheter (odds ratio [OR], 30.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7-119.5), malignancy (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.23-13.1), use of vancomycin for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 6.2; 95% CI, 2.4-16), and receipt of agents with activity against anaerobic organisms for >3 days in the prior 2 weeks (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.5-8.4). Predicted probability of having various combinations of the aforementioned factors ranged from 10.7% to 46%. The 30-day mortality rate was 44% among case patients and 14% among control patients (OR, 4.22; 95% CI, 2.35-7.60). To our knowledge, this is the first study to evaluate independent risk factors and to determine a population of children in PICUs at high risk for developing candidemia. Future efforts should focus on validation of these risk factors identified in a different PICU population and development of interventions for prevention of candidemia in critically ill children.

SAD-B kinase regulates pre-synaptic vesicular dynamics at hippocampal Schaffer collateral synapses and affects contextual fear memory.

PubMed

Watabe, Ayako M; Nagase, Masashi; Hagiwara, Akari; Hida, Yamato; Tsuji, Megumi; Ochiai, Toshitaka; Kato, Fusao; Ohtsuka, Toshihisa

2016-01-01

Synapses of amphids defective (SAD)-A/B kinases control various steps in neuronal development and differentiation, such as axon specifications and maturation in central and peripheral nervous systems. At mature pre-synaptic terminals, SAD-B is associated with synaptic vesicles and the active zone cytomatrix; however, how SAD-B regulates neurotransmission and synaptic plasticity in vivo remains unclear. Thus, we used SAD-B knockout (KO) mice to study the function of this pre-synaptic kinase in the brain. We found that the paired-pulse ratio was significantly enhanced at Shaffer collateral synapses in the hippocampal CA1 region in SAD-B KO mice compared with wild-type littermates. We also found that the frequency of the miniature excitatory post-synaptic current was decreased in SAD-B KO mice. Moreover, synaptic depression following prolonged low-frequency synaptic stimulation was significantly enhanced in SAD-B KO mice. These results suggest that SAD-B kinase regulates vesicular release probability at pre-synaptic terminals and is involved in vesicular trafficking and/or regulation of the readily releasable pool size. Finally, we found that hippocampus-dependent contextual fear learning was significantly impaired in SAD-B KO mice. These observations suggest that SAD-B kinase plays pivotal roles in controlling vesicular release properties and regulating hippocampal function in the mature brain. Synapses of amphids defective (SAD)-A/B kinases control various steps in neuronal development and differentiation, but their roles in mature brains were only partially known. Here, we demonstrated, at mature pre-synaptic terminals, that SAD-B regulates vesicular release probability and synaptic plasticity. Moreover, hippocampus-dependent contextual fear learning was significantly impaired in SAD-B KO mice, suggesting that SAD-B kinase plays pivotal roles in controlling vesicular release properties and regulating hippocampal function in the mature brain. © 2015 International Society for Neurochemistry.

Marine vs. local control on seawater Nd-isotope ratios at the northwest coast of Africa during the late Cretaceous-early Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kocsis, L.; Gheerbrant, E.; Mouflih, M.; Cappetta, H.; Ulianov, A.; Chiaradia, M.

2013-12-01

At the northwest corner of Africa excellent conditions existed for phosphate formation (i.e., stable upwelling system) during the late Cretaceous-early Eocene. This is probably in relation to stable tectonic evolution of shallow epicontinental basins at a passive continental margin and to their paleogeographic situation between the Atlantic and Tethys marine realms. To better comprehend paleoceanic conditions in this area, radiogenic isotope ratios (87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd) and trace element compositions of fossil biogenic apatite are investigated from Maastrichtian to Ypresian shallow marine phosphorite deposits in Morocco (Ouled Abdoun and Ganntour Basins). Rare earth elements (REE) distributions in the fossils are compatible with early diagenetic marine pore fluid represented by negative Ce-anomaly and heavy REE enrichment. An overall shift in Ce-anomaly is apparent with gradually lower values in younger fossils along three distinct assemblages that correspond to Maastrichtian, Danian-Thanetian and Ypresian periods. The temporal change can be interpreted as presence of gradually more oxygenated seawater in the basins. Strontium isotopic ratios of the fossils follow the global Sr-evolution curve. However, the latest Cretaceous and the oldest Paleocene fossils yielded slightly higher ratios than the global ocean, which could reflect minor diagenetic alteration. Neodymium isotopic ratios are quite even along the phosphate series with ɛNd(t) values ranges from -6.8 to -5.8. These values are higher than those reported for average North Atlantic deep water and Tethyan seawater (e.g., Stille et al., 1996; Thomas et al., 2003). For the origin of the stable, high 143Nd/144Nd we propose three main hypotheses: (1) contribution of continental Nd-source, (2) locally controlled deep water Nd-isotope ratios near the coast from where upwelling originated in the area and (3) possible surface marine water contribution from the Pacific across the Atlantic. Stille, P., Steinmann, M., Riggs, R.S., 1996. Nd isotope evidence for the evolution of the paleocurrents in the Atlantic and Tethys Oceans during the past 180 Ma. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 144, 9-19. Thomas, J.D., Bralower, T.J., Jones, E.C., 2003. Neodymium isotopic reconstruction of late Paleocene-early Eocene thermohaline circulation. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 209, 309-322.

Motivation and effort in individuals with social anhedonia

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Julie M.; Treadway, Michael T.; Blanchard, Jack J.

2015-01-01

It has been proposed that anhedonia may, in part, reflect difficulties in reward processing and effortful decision-making. The current study aimed to replicate previous findings of effortful decision-making deficits associated with elevated anhedonia and expand upon these findings by investigating whether these decision-making deficits are specific to elevated social anhedonia or are also associated with elevated positive schizotypy characteristics. The current study compared controls (n = 40) to individuals elevated on social anhedonia (n = 30), and individuals elevated on perceptual aberration/magical ideation (n = 30) on the Effort Expenditure for Rewards Task (EEfRT). Across groups, participants chose a higher proportion of hard tasks with increasing probability of reward and reward magnitude, demonstrating sensitivity to probability and reward values. Contrary to our expectations, when the probability of reward was most uncertain (50% probability), at low and medium reward values, the social anhedonia group demonstrated more effortful decision-making than either individuals high in positive schizotypy or controls. The positive schizotypy group only differed from controls (making less effortful choices than controls) when reward probability was lowest (12%) and the magnitude of reward was the smallest. Our results suggest that social anhedonia is related to intact motivation and effort for monetary rewards, but that individuals with this characteristic display a unique and perhaps inefficient pattern of effort allocation when the probability of reward is most uncertain. Future research is needed to better understand effortful decision-making and the processing of reward across a range of individual difference characteristics. PMID:25888337

Modelling detection probabilities to evaluate management and control tools for an invasive species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, M.T.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Rodda, G.H.; Savidge, J.A.; Tyrrell, C.L.

2010-01-01

For most ecologists, detection probability (p) is a nuisance variable that must be modelled to estimate the state variable of interest (i.e. survival, abundance, or occupancy). However, in the realm of invasive species control, the rate of detection and removal is the rate-limiting step for management of this pervasive environmental problem. For strategic planning of an eradication (removal of every individual), one must identify the least likely individual to be removed, and determine the probability of removing it. To evaluate visual searching as a control tool for populations of the invasive brown treesnake Boiga irregularis, we designed a mark-recapture study to evaluate detection probability as a function of time, gender, size, body condition, recent detection history, residency status, searcher team and environmental covariates. We evaluated these factors using 654 captures resulting from visual detections of 117 snakes residing in a 5-ha semi-forested enclosure on Guam, fenced to prevent immigration and emigration of snakes but not their prey. Visual detection probability was low overall (= 0??07 per occasion) but reached 0??18 under optimal circumstances. Our results supported sex-specific differences in detectability that were a quadratic function of size, with both small and large females having lower detection probabilities than males of those sizes. There was strong evidence for individual periodic changes in detectability of a few days duration, roughly doubling detection probability (comparing peak to non-elevated detections). Snakes in poor body condition had estimated mean detection probabilities greater than snakes with high body condition. Search teams with high average detection rates exhibited detection probabilities about twice that of search teams with low average detection rates. Surveys conducted with bright moonlight and strong wind gusts exhibited moderately decreased probabilities of detecting snakes. Synthesis and applications. By emphasizing and modelling detection probabilities, we now know: (i) that eradication of this species by searching is possible, (ii) how much searching effort would be required, (iii) under what environmental conditions searching would be most efficient, and (iv) several factors that are likely to modulate this quantification when searching is applied to new areas. The same approach can be use for evaluation of any control technology or population monitoring programme. ?? 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2009 British Ecological Society.

Associations Between Ankle-Brachial Index and Cognitive Function: Results From the Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders Trial.

PubMed

Espeland, Mark A; Newman, Anne B; Sink, Kaycee; Gill, Thomas M; King, Abby C; Miller, Michael E; Guralnik, Jack; Katula, Jeff; Church, Timothy; Manini, Todd; Reid, Kieran F; McDermott, Mary M

2015-08-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ankle-brachial index (ABI) and indicators of cognitive function. Randomized clinical trial (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders Trial). Eight US academic centers. A total of 1601 adults ages 70-89 years, sedentary, without dementia, and with functional limitations. Baseline ABI and interviewer- and computer-administered cognitive function assessments were obtained. These assessments were used to compare a physical activity intervention with a health education control. Cognitive function was reassessed 24 months later (interviewer-administered) and 18 or 30 months later (computer-administered) and central adjudication was used to classify individuals as having mild cognitive impairment, probable dementia, or neither. Lower ABI had a modest independent association with poorer cognitive functioning at baseline (partial r = 0.09; P < .001). Although lower baseline ABI was not associated with overall changes in cognitive function test scores, it was associated with higher odds for 2-year progression to a composite of either mild cognitive impairment or probable dementia (odds ratio 2.60 per unit lower ABI; 95% confidence interval 1.06-6.37). Across 2 years, changes in ABI were not associated with changes in cognitive function. In an older cohort sedentary individuals with dementia and with functional limitations, lower baseline ABI was independently correlated with cognitive function and associated with greater 2-year risk for progression to mild cognitive impairment or probable dementia. Copyright © 2015 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple regression and inverse moments improve the characterization of the spatial scaling behavior of daily streamflows in the Southeast United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, William H.; Over, Thomas M.; Vogel, Richard M.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatial structure of daily streamflow is essential for managing freshwater resources, especially in poorly-gaged regions. Spatial scaling assumptions are common in flood frequency prediction (e.g., index-flood method) and the prediction of continuous streamflow at ungaged sites (e.g. drainage-area ratio), with simple scaling by drainage area being the most common assumption. In this study, scaling analyses of daily streamflow from 173 streamgages in the southeastern US resulted in three important findings. First, the use of only positive integer moment orders, as has been done in most previous studies, captures only the probabilistic and spatial scaling behavior of flows above an exceedance probability near the median; negative moment orders (inverse moments) are needed for lower streamflows. Second, assessing scaling by using drainage area alone is shown to result in a high degree of omitted-variable bias, masking the true spatial scaling behavior. Multiple regression is shown to mitigate this bias, controlling for regional heterogeneity of basin attributes, especially those correlated with drainage area. Previous univariate scaling analyses have neglected the scaling of low-flow events and may have produced biased estimates of the spatial scaling exponent. Third, the multiple regression results show that mean flows scale with an exponent of one, low flows scale with spatial scaling exponents greater than one, and high flows scale with exponents less than one. The relationship between scaling exponents and exceedance probabilities may be a fundamental signature of regional streamflow. This signature may improve our understanding of the physical processes generating streamflow at different exceedance probabilities. 

Preoperative paravertebral blocks for the management of acute pain following mastectomy: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Offodile, Anaeze C; Sheckter, Clifford C; Tucker, Austin; Watzker, Anna; Ottino, Kevin; Zammert, Martin; Padula, William V

2017-10-01

Preoperative paravertebral blocks (PPVBs) are routinely used for treating post-mastectomy pain, yet uncertainties remain about the cost-effectiveness of this modality. We aim to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of PPVBs at common willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds. A decision analytic model compared two strategies: general anesthesia (GA) alone versus GA with multilevel PPVB. For the GA plus PPVB limb, patients were subjected to successful block placement versus varying severity of complications based on literature-derived probabilities. The need for rescue pain medication was the terminal node for all postoperative scenarios. Patient-reported pain scores sourced from published meta-analyses measured treatment effectiveness. Costing was derived from wholesale acquisition costs, the Medicare fee schedule, and publicly available hospital charge masters. Charges were converted to costs and adjusted for 2016 US dollars. A commercial payer perspective was adopted. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were evaluated against WTP thresholds of $500 and $50,000 for postoperative pain control. The ICER for preoperative paravertebral blocks was $154.49 per point reduction in pain score. 15% variation in inpatient costs resulted in ICER values ranging from $124.40-$180.66 per pain point score reduction. Altering the probability of block success by 5% generated ICER values of $144.71-$163.81 per pain score reduction. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis yielded cost-effective trials 69.43% of the time at $500 WTP thresholds. Over a broad range of probabilities, PPVB in mastectomy reduces postoperative pain at an acceptable incremental cost compared to GA. Commercial payers should be persuaded to reimburse this technique based on convincing evidence of cost-effectiveness.

Clarifying the relationship between nonradiologists' financial interest in imaging and their utilization of imaging.

PubMed

Bhargavan, Mythreyi; Sunshine, Jonathan H; Hughes, Danny R

2011-11-01

Several limitations and deficiencies have been identified in existing studies of physician financial interest in imaging that show financial interest is associated with more imaging. We conducted extensive quantitative analysis of seven deficiencies that have been identified. Using Symmetry's Episode Grouper, we created episodes of care from all the 2004-2007 health care claims for a random 5% sample of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. We compared utilization of imaging in nonhospital episodes having a nonradiologist physician who had a financial interest in imaging with utilization in episodes with no such physician. We studied 23 combinations of medical conditions with imaging modalities commonly used for these conditions. Across four different definitions of financial interest and the 23 combinations, the relative probability (risk ratio) of imaging was uniformly higher for episodes of physicians with a financial interest, predominantly at p < 0.001. The mean relative probability was 1.87. This mean was little affected by the definition of financial interest used or the definition of the physician deemed responsible for the imaging. Controlling for patient characteristics, illness severity, and physician specialty likewise had little effect. Physicians who had acquired a financial interest averaged a 49% increase in the odds of imaging relative to physicians who had not. Physicians with a financial interest in an imaging modality used other modalities more than did physicians without a financial interest in the index modality. The Deficit Reduction Act's 2007 payment reductions had little effect. A financial interest in imaging is associated with higher utilization, probably causally. Limiting nonradiologists' financial interest in imaging may be desirable.

Association of migraine headaches with suicidal ideation among pregnant women in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Friedman, Lauren E.; Gelaye, Bizu; Rondon, Marta B.; Sánchez, Sixto E.; Peterlin, B. Lee; Williams, Michelle A.

2016-01-01

Background Suicide is a leading cause of maternal death globally, and suicide prevalence rates have been shown to be increased in those with migraine. No previous study has examined the association between migraine and suicidal ideation during pregnancy. Objective To examine the association between migraine and suicidal ideation among a cohort of pregnant women. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3,372 pregnant women attending prenatal care clinics in Lima, Peru. Suicidal ideation and depression were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scale during early pregnancy. Migraine classification (including migraine and probable migraine) was based on International Classification of Headache Disorders (ICHD)-III beta criteria. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate odd ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results Suicidal ideation was more common among those with migraine (25.6%) as compared to those with probable migraine (22.1%, p<0.001) or non-migraineurs (12.3%, p<0.001). After adjusting for confounders, including depression, those with migraine or probable migraine had a 78% increased odds of suicidal ideation (OR=1.78; 95%CI: 1.46–2.17), as compared with non-migraineurs. Women with both migraine and depression had a 4.14-fold increased odds of suicidal ideation (OR=4.14; 95%CI: 3.17–5.42) compared to those with neither condition. Conclusion Migraine is associated with increased odds of suicidal ideation in pregnant women even when controlling for depression. These findings support the consideration of screening women with comorbid migraine and depression for suicidal behavior during pregnancy. PMID:27016264

Association of Migraine Headaches With Suicidal Ideation Among Pregnant Women in Lima, Peru.

PubMed

Friedman, Lauren E; Gelaye, Bizu; Rondon, Marta B; Sanchez, Sixto E; Peterlin, B Lee; Williams, Michelle A

2016-04-01

Suicide is a leading cause of maternal death globally, and suicide prevalence rates have been shown to be increased in those with migraine. No previous study has examined the association between migraine and suicidal ideation during pregnancy. To examine the association between migraine and suicidal ideation among a cohort of pregnant women. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3372 pregnant women attending prenatal care clinics in Lima, Peru. Suicidal ideation and depression were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) scale during early pregnancy. Migraine classification (including migraine and probable migraine) was based on International Classification of Headache Disorders-III beta criteria. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Suicidal ideation was more common among those with migraine (25.6%) as compared to those with probable migraine (22.1%, P < .001) or non-migraineurs (12.3%, P < .001). After adjusting for confounders, including depression, those with migraine or probable migraine had a 78% increased odds of suicidal ideation (OR = 1.78; 95% CI: 1.46-2.17), as compared with non-migraineurs. Women with both migraine and depression had a 4.14-fold increased odds of suicidal ideation (OR = 4.14; 95% CI: 3.17-5.42) compared to those with neither condition. Migraine is associated with increased odds of suicidal ideation in pregnant women even when controlling for depression. These findings support the consideration of screening women with comorbid migraine and depression for suicidal behavior during pregnancy. © 2016 American Headache Society.