Design and operation of the national home health aide survey: 2007-2008.

PubMed

Bercovitz, Anita; Moss, Abigail J; Sengupta, Manisha; Harris-Kojetin, Lauren D; Squillace, Marie R; Emily, Rosenoff; Branden, Laura

2010-03-01

This report provides an overview of the National Home Health Aide Survey (NHHAS), the first national probability survey of home health aides. NHHAS was designed to provide national estimates of home health aides who provided assistance in activities of daily living (ADLs) and were directly employed by agencies that provide home health and/or hospice care. This report discusses the need for and objectives of the survey, the design process, the survey methods, and data availability. METHODS NHHAS, a multistage probability sample survey, was conducted as a supplement to the 2007 National Home and Hospice Care Survey (NHHCS). Agencies providing home health and/or hospice care were sampled, and then aides employed by these agencies were sampled and interviewed by telephone. Survey topics included recruitment, training, job history, family life, client relations, work-related injuries, and demographics. NHHAS was virtually identical to the 2004 National Nursing Assistant Survey of certified nursing assistants employed in sampled nursing homes with minor changes to account for differences in workplace environment and responsibilities. RESULTS From September 2007 to April 2008, interviews were completed with 3,416 aides. A public-use data file that contains the interview responses, sampling weights, and design variables is available. The NHHAS overall response rate weighted by the inverse of the probability of selection was 41 percent. This rate is the product of the weighted first-stage agency response rate of 57 percent (i.e., weighted response rate of 59 percent for agency participation in NHHCS times the weighted response rate of 97 percent for agencies participating in NHHCS that also participated in NHHAS) and the weighted second-stage aide response rate of 72 percent to NHHAS.

Accounting for Incomplete Species Detection in Fish Community Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A; Orth, Dr. Donald J; Jager, Yetta

2013-01-01

Riverine fish assemblages are heterogeneous and very difficult to characterize with a one-size-fits-all approach to sampling. Furthermore, detecting changes in fish assemblages over time requires accounting for variation in sampling designs. We present a modeling approach that permits heterogeneous sampling by accounting for site and sampling covariates (including method) in a model-based framework for estimation (versus a sampling-based framework). We snorkeled during three surveys and electrofished during a single survey in suite of delineated habitats stratified by reach types. We developed single-species occupancy models to determine covariates influencing patch occupancy and species detection probabilities whereas community occupancy models estimated speciesmore » richness in light of incomplete detections. For most species, information-theoretic criteria showed higher support for models that included patch size and reach as covariates of occupancy. In addition, models including patch size and sampling method as covariates of detection probabilities also had higher support. Detection probability estimates for snorkeling surveys were higher for larger non-benthic species whereas electrofishing was more effective at detecting smaller benthic species. The number of sites and sampling occasions required to accurately estimate occupancy varied among fish species. For rare benthic species, our results suggested that higher number of occasions, and especially the addition of electrofishing, may be required to improve detection probabilities and obtain accurate occupancy estimates. Community models suggested that richness was 41% higher than the number of species actually observed and the addition of an electrofishing survey increased estimated richness by 13%. These results can be useful to future fish assemblage monitoring efforts by informing sampling designs, such as site selection (e.g. stratifying based on patch size) and determining effort required (e.g. number of sites versus occasions).« less

Has Adolescent Suicidality Decreased in the United States? Data from Two National Samples of Adolescents Interviewed in 1995 and 2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolitzky-Taylor, Kate B.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Smith, Daniel W.; Hanson, Rochelle F.; Resnick, Heidi S.; de Arellano, Michael A.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2010-01-01

We compared the prevalence and correlates of adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts in two nationally representative probability samples of adolescents interviewed in 1995 (National Survey of Adolescents; N = 4,023) and 2005 (National Survey of Adolescents-Replication; N = 3,614). Participants in both samples completed a telephone survey that…

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

1994-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

Probability Sampling Method for a Hidden Population Using Respondent-Driven Sampling: Simulation for Cancer Survivors.

PubMed

Jung, Minsoo

2015-01-01

When there is no sampling frame within a certain group or the group is concerned that making its population public would bring social stigma, we say the population is hidden. It is difficult to approach this kind of population survey-methodologically because the response rate is low and its members are not quite honest with their responses when probability sampling is used. The only alternative known to address the problems caused by previous methods such as snowball sampling is respondent-driven sampling (RDS), which was developed by Heckathorn and his colleagues. RDS is based on a Markov chain, and uses the social network information of the respondent. This characteristic allows for probability sampling when we survey a hidden population. We verified through computer simulation whether RDS can be used on a hidden population of cancer survivors. According to the simulation results of this thesis, the chain-referral sampling of RDS tends to minimize as the sample gets bigger, and it becomes stabilized as the wave progresses. Therefore, it shows that the final sample information can be completely independent from the initial seeds if a certain level of sample size is secured even if the initial seeds were selected through convenient sampling. Thus, RDS can be considered as an alternative which can improve upon both key informant sampling and ethnographic surveys, and it needs to be utilized for various cases domestically as well.

Assessing representativeness of sampling methods for reaching men who have sex with men: a direct comparison of results obtained from convenience and probability samples.

PubMed

Schwarcz, Sandra; Spindler, Hilary; Scheer, Susan; Valleroy, Linda; Lansky, Amy

2007-07-01

Convenience samples are used to determine HIV-related behaviors among men who have sex with men (MSM) without measuring the extent to which the results are representative of the broader MSM population. We compared results from a cross-sectional survey of MSM recruited from gay bars between June and October 2001 to a random digit dial telephone survey conducted between June 2002 and January 2003. The men in the probability sample were older, better educated, and had higher incomes than men in the convenience sample, the convenience sample enrolled more employed men and men of color. Substance use around the time of sex was higher in the convenience sample but other sexual behaviors were similar. HIV testing was common among men in both samples. Periodic validation, through comparison of data collected by different sampling methods, may be useful when relying on survey data for program and policy development.

Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi).

PubMed

Mali, Ivana; Duarte, Adam; Forstner, Michael R J

2018-01-01

Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter ( Pseudemys gorzugi ) while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species. Although baited hoop-net traps seem to be an effective sampling design, it is important to note that this method required a relatively high trap effort to reliably estimate abundance. This information will be useful when developing a larger-scale, long-term monitoring program for this species of concern.

SAS procedures for designing and analyzing sample surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stafford, Joshua D.; Reinecke, Kenneth J.; Kaminski, Richard M.

2003-01-01

Complex surveys often are necessary to estimate occurrence (or distribution), density, and abundance of plants and animals for purposes of re-search and conservation. Most scientists are familiar with simple random sampling, where sample units are selected from a population of interest (sampling frame) with equal probability. However, the goal of ecological surveys often is to make inferences about populations over large or complex spatial areas where organisms are not homogeneously distributed or sampling frames are in-convenient or impossible to construct. Candidate sampling strategies for such complex surveys include stratified,multistage, and adaptive sampling (Thompson 1992, Buckland 1994).

Spatially balanced survey designs for natural resources

EPA Science Inventory

Ecological resource monitoring programs typically require the use of a probability survey design to select locations or entities to be physically sampled in the field. The ecological resource of interest, the target population, occurs over a spatial domain and the sample selecte...

2011 Joplin, Missouri Tornado Experience, Mental Health Reactions, and Service Utilization: Cross-Sectional Assessments at Approximately 6 Months and 2.5 Years Post-Event.

PubMed

Houston, J Brian; Spialek, Matthew L; Stevens, Jordan; First, Jennifer; Mieseler, Vicky L; Pfefferbaum, Betty

2015-10-26

Introduction. On May 22, 2011 the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1947 struck Joplin, Missouri killing 161 people, injuring approximately 1,150 individuals, and causing approximately $2.8 billion in economic losses. Methods. This study examined the mental health effects of this event through a random digit dialing sample (N = 380) of Joplin adults at approximately 6 months post-disaster (Survey 1) and a purposive convenience sample (N = 438) of Joplin adults at approximately 2.5 years post-disaster (Survey 2). For both surveys we assessed tornado experience, posttraumatic stress, depression, mental health service utilization, and sociodemographics. For Survey 2 we also assessed social support and parent report of child strengths and difficulties. Results. Probable PTSD relevance was 12.63% at Survey 1 and 26.74% at Survey 2, while current depression prevalence was 20.82% at Survey 1 and 13.33% at Survey 2. Less education and more tornado experience was generally related to greater likelihood of experiencing probable PTSD and current depression for both surveys. Men and younger participants were more likely to report current depression at Survey 1. Low levels of social support (assessed only at Survey 2) were related to more probable PTSD and current depression. For both surveys, we observed low rates of mental health service utilization, and these rates were also low for participants reporting probable PTSD and current depression. At Survey 2 we assessed parent report of child (ages 4 to 17) strengths and difficulties and found that child difficulties were more frequent for younger children (ages 4 to 10) than older children (ages 11 to 17), and that parents reporting probable PTSD reported a greater frequency of children with borderline or abnormal difficulties. Discussion. Overall our results indicate that long-term (multi-year) community disaster mental health monitoring, assessment, referral, outreach, and services are needed following a major disaster like the 2011 Joplin tornado.

2011 Joplin, Missouri Tornado Experience, Mental Health Reactions, and Service Utilization: Cross-Sectional Assessments at Approximately 6 Months and 2.5 Years Post-Event

PubMed Central

Houston, J. Brian; Spialek, Matthew L.; Stevens, Jordan; First, Jennifer; Mieseler, Vicky L.; Pfefferbaum, Betty

2015-01-01

Introduction. On May 22, 2011 the deadliest tornado in the United States since 1947 struck Joplin, Missouri killing 161 people, injuring approximately 1,150 individuals, and causing approximately $2.8 billion in economic losses. Methods. This study examined the mental health effects of this event through a random digit dialing sample (N = 380) of Joplin adults at approximately 6 months post-disaster (Survey 1) and a purposive convenience sample (N = 438) of Joplin adults at approximately 2.5 years post-disaster (Survey 2). For both surveys we assessed tornado experience, posttraumatic stress, depression, mental health service utilization, and sociodemographics. For Survey 2 we also assessed social support and parent report of child strengths and difficulties. Results. Probable PTSD relevance was 12.63% at Survey 1 and 26.74% at Survey 2, while current depression prevalence was 20.82% at Survey 1 and 13.33% at Survey 2. Less education and more tornado experience was generally related to greater likelihood of experiencing probable PTSD and current depression for both surveys. Men and younger participants were more likely to report current depression at Survey 1. Low levels of social support (assessed only at Survey 2) were related to more probable PTSD and current depression. For both surveys, we observed low rates of mental health service utilization, and these rates were also low for participants reporting probable PTSD and current depression. At Survey 2 we assessed parent report of child (ages 4 to 17) strengths and difficulties and found that child difficulties were more frequent for younger children (ages 4 to 10) than older children (ages 11 to 17), and that parents reporting probable PTSD reported a greater frequency of children with borderline or abnormal difficulties. Discussion. Overall our results indicate that long-term (multi-year) community disaster mental health monitoring, assessment, referral, outreach, and services are needed following a major disaster like the 2011 Joplin tornado. PMID:26579331

New methods for sampling sparse populations

Treesearch

Anna Ringvall

2007-01-01

To improve surveys of sparse objects, methods that use auxiliary information have been suggested. Guided transect sampling uses prior information, e.g., from aerial photographs, for the layout of survey strips. Instead of being laid out straight, the strips will wind between potentially more interesting areas. 3P sampling (probability proportional to prediction) uses...

Temporally Adaptive Sampling: A Case Study in Rare Species Survey Design with Marbled Salamanders (Ambystoma opacum)

PubMed Central

Charney, Noah D.; Kubel, Jacob E.; Eiseman, Charles S.

2015-01-01

Improving detection rates for elusive species with clumped distributions is often accomplished through adaptive sampling designs. This approach can be extended to include species with temporally variable detection probabilities. By concentrating survey effort in years when the focal species are most abundant or visible, overall detection rates can be improved. This requires either long-term monitoring at a few locations where the species are known to occur or models capable of predicting population trends using climatic and demographic data. For marbled salamanders (Ambystoma opacum) in Massachusetts, we demonstrate that annual variation in detection probability of larvae is regionally correlated. In our data, the difference in survey success between years was far more important than the difference among the three survey methods we employed: diurnal surveys, nocturnal surveys, and dipnet surveys. Based on these data, we simulate future surveys to locate unknown populations under a temporally adaptive sampling framework. In the simulations, when pond dynamics are correlated over the focal region, the temporally adaptive design improved mean survey success by as much as 26% over a non-adaptive sampling design. Employing a temporally adaptive strategy costs very little, is simple, and has the potential to substantially improve the efficient use of scarce conservation funds. PMID:25799224

Occupancy Modeling Species-Environment Relationships with Non-ignorable Survey Designs.

PubMed

Irvine, Kathryn M; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Wright, Wilson J; Olsen, Anthony R

2018-05-26

Statistical models supporting inferences about species occurrence patterns in relation to environmental gradients are fundamental to ecology and conservation biology. A common implicit assumption is that the sampling design is ignorable and does not need to be formally accounted for in analyses. The analyst assumes data are representative of the desired population and statistical modeling proceeds. However, if datasets from probability and non-probability surveys are combined or unequal selection probabilities are used, the design may be non ignorable. We outline the use of pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for site-occupancy models to account for such non-ignorable survey designs. This estimation method accounts for the survey design by properly weighting the pseudo-likelihood equation. In our empirical example, legacy and newer randomly selected locations were surveyed for bats to bridge a historic statewide effort with an ongoing nationwide program. We provide a worked example using bat acoustic detection/non-detection data and show how analysts can diagnose whether their design is ignorable. Using simulations we assessed whether our approach is viable for modeling datasets composed of sites contributed outside of a probability design Pseudo-maximum likelihood estimates differed from the usual maximum likelihood occu31 pancy estimates for some bat species. Using simulations we show the maximum likelihood estimator of species-environment relationships with non-ignorable sampling designs was biased, whereas the pseudo-likelihood estimator was design-unbiased. However, in our simulation study the designs composed of a large proportion of legacy or non-probability sites resulted in estimation issues for standard errors. These issues were likely a result of highly variable weights confounded by small sample sizes (5% or 10% sampling intensity and 4 revisits). Aggregating datasets from multiple sources logically supports larger sample sizes and potentially increases spatial extents for statistical inferences. Our results suggest that ignoring the mechanism for how locations were selected for data collection (e.g., the sampling design) could result in erroneous model-based conclusions. Therefore, in order to ensure robust and defensible recommendations for evidence-based conservation decision-making, the survey design information in addition to the data themselves must be available for analysts. Details for constructing the weights used in estimation and code for implementation are provided. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Sampling guidelines for oral fluid-based surveys of group-housed animals.

PubMed

Rotolo, Marisa L; Sun, Yaxuan; Wang, Chong; Giménez-Lirola, Luis; Baum, David H; Gauger, Phillip C; Harmon, Karen M; Hoogland, Marlin; Main, Rodger; Zimmerman, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

Formulas and software for calculating sample size for surveys based on individual animal samples are readily available. However, sample size formulas are not available for oral fluids and other aggregate samples that are increasingly used in production settings. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop sampling guidelines for oral fluid-based porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) surveys in commercial swine farms. Oral fluid samples were collected in 9 weekly samplings from all pens in 3 barns on one production site beginning shortly after placement of weaned pigs. Samples (n=972) were tested by real-time reverse-transcription PCR (RT-rtPCR) and the binary results analyzed using a piecewise exponential survival model for interval-censored, time-to-event data with misclassification. Thereafter, simulation studies were used to study the barn-level probability of PRRSV detection as a function of sample size, sample allocation (simple random sampling vs fixed spatial sampling), assay diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, and pen-level prevalence. These studies provided estimates of the probability of detection by sample size and within-barn prevalence. Detection using fixed spatial sampling was as good as, or better than, simple random sampling. Sampling multiple barns on a site increased the probability of detection with the number of barns sampled. These results are relevant to PRRSV control or elimination projects at the herd, regional, or national levels, but the results are also broadly applicable to contagious pathogens of swine for which oral fluid tests of equivalent performance are available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A critical analysis of high-redshift, massive, galaxy clusters. Part I

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoyle, Ben; Jimenez, Raul; Verde, Licia

2012-02-01

We critically investigate current statistical tests applied to high redshift clusters of galaxies in order to test the standard cosmological model and describe their range of validity. We carefully compare a sample of high-redshift, massive, galaxy clusters with realistic Poisson sample simulations of the theoretical mass function, which include the effect of Eddington bias. We compare the observations and simulations using the following statistical tests: the distributions of ensemble and individual existence probabilities (in the > M, > z sense), the redshift distributions, and the 2d Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Using seemingly rare clusters from Hoyle et al. (2011), and Jee etmore » al. (2011) and assuming the same survey geometry as in Jee et al. (2011, which is less conservative than Hoyle et al. 2011), we find that the ( > M, > z) existence probabilities of all clusters are fully consistent with ΛCDM. However assuming the same survey geometry, we use the 2d K-S test probability to show that the observed clusters are not consistent with being the least probable clusters from simulations at > 95% confidence, and are also not consistent with being a random selection of clusters, which may be caused by the non-trivial selection function and survey geometry. Tension can be removed if we examine only a X-ray selected sub sample, with simulations performed assuming a modified survey geometry.« less

Application of a multipurpose unequal probability stream survey in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ator, S.W.; Olsen, A.R.; Pitchford, A.M.; Denver, J.M.

2003-01-01

A stratified, spatially balanced sample with unequal probability selection was used to design a multipurpose survey of headwater streams in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Objectives for the survey include unbiased estimates of regional stream conditions, and adequate coverage of unusual but significant environmental settings to support empirical modeling of the factors affecting those conditions. The design and field application of the survey are discussed in light of these multiple objectives. A probability (random) sample of 175 first-order nontidal streams was selected for synoptic sampling of water chemistry and benthic and riparian ecology during late winter and spring 2000. Twenty-five streams were selected within each of seven hydrogeologic subregions (strata) that were delineated on the basis of physiography and surficial geology. In each subregion, unequal inclusion probabilities were used to provide an approximately even distribution of streams along a gradient of forested to developed (agricultural or urban) land in the contributing watershed. Alternate streams were also selected. Alternates were included in groups of five in each subregion when field reconnaissance demonstrated that primary streams were inaccessible or otherwise unusable. Despite the rejection and replacement of a considerable number of primary streams during reconnaissance (up to 40 percent in one subregion), the desired land use distribution was maintained within each hydrogeologic subregion without sacrificing the probabilistic design.

Probability of detection of nests and implications for survey design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, P.A.; Bart, J.; Lanctot, Richard B.; McCaffery, B.J.; Brown, S.

2009-01-01

Surveys based on double sampling include a correction for the probability of detection by assuming complete enumeration of birds in an intensively surveyed subsample of plots. To evaluate this assumption, we calculated the probability of detecting active shorebird nests by using information from observers who searched the same plots independently. Our results demonstrate that this probability varies substantially by species and stage of the nesting cycle but less by site or density of nests. Among the species we studied, the estimated single-visit probability of nest detection during the incubation period varied from 0.21 for the White-rumped Sandpiper (Calidris fuscicollis), the most difficult species to detect, to 0.64 for the Western Sandpiper (Calidris mauri), the most easily detected species, with a mean across species of 0.46. We used these detection probabilities to predict the fraction of persistent nests found over repeated nest searches. For a species with the mean value for detectability, the detection rate exceeded 0.85 after four visits. This level of nest detection was exceeded in only three visits for the Western Sandpiper, but six to nine visits were required for the White-rumped Sandpiper, depending on the type of survey employed. Our results suggest that the double-sampling method's requirement of nearly complete counts of birds in the intensively surveyed plots is likely to be met for birds with nests that survive over several visits of nest searching. Individuals with nests that fail quickly or individuals that do not breed can be detected with high probability only if territorial behavior is used to identify likely nesting pairs. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society, 2009.

USING GIS TO GENERATE SPATIALLY-BALANCED RANDOM SURVEY DESIGNS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sam...

NATIONAL HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (NHANES I)

EPA Science Inventory

The First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) was conducted on a nationwide probability sample of approximately 32,000 persons 1-74 years of age. The NHANES I sample was selected so that certain population groups thought to be at high risk of malnutrition ...

SECOND NATIONAL HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (NHANES II)

EPA Science Inventory

The second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, NHANES II, is a nationwide probability sample of 27,801 persons from 6 months 74 years of age. From this sample, 25,286 people were interviewed and 20,322 people were examined, resulting in an overall response rate of 7...

Sightability adjustment methods for aerial surveys of wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinhorst, R.K.; Samuel, M.D.

1989-01-01

Aerial surveys are routinely conducted to estimate the abundance of wildlife species and the rate of population change. However, sightability of animal groups is acknowledged as a significant source of bias in these estimates. Recent research has focused on the development of sightability models to predict the probability of sighting groups under various conditions. Given such models, we show how sightability can be incorporated into the estimator of population size as a probability of response using standard results from sample surveys. We develop formulas for the cases where the sighting probability must be estimated. An example, using data from a helicopter survey of moose in Alberta (Jacobson, Alberta Oil Sands Research Project Report, 1976), is given to illustrate the technique.

Environmental DNA as a Tool for Inventory and Monitoring of Aquatic Vertebrates

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

geomorphic calculations and description of each reach. Methods Channel Surveys We initially selected reaches based on access and visual indicators...WA 99164 I-2 Environmental DNA lab protocol: designing species-specific qPCR assays Species-specific surveys should use quantitative polymerase...to traditional field sampling with respect to sensitivity, detection probabilities, and cost efficiency. Compared to field surveys , eDNA sampling

THIRD NATIONAL HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (NHANES III)

EPA Science Inventory

The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III), 1988-94, was conducted on a nationwide probability sample of approximately 33,994 persons 2 months and over. The survey was designed to obtain nationally representative information on the health and nutritio...

Hate Crimes and Stigma-Related Experiences among Sexual Minority Adults in the United States: Prevalence Estimates from a National Probability Sample

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herek, Gregory M.

2009-01-01

Using survey responses collected via the Internet from a U.S. national probability sample of gay, lesbian, and bisexual adults (N = 662), this article reports prevalence estimates of criminal victimization and related experiences based on the target's sexual orientation. Approximately 20% of respondents reported having experienced a person or…

Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

2012-01-01

A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (α) collectively form the quantitative sampling objective.

Methodological considerations in using complex survey data: an applied example with the Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey.

PubMed

Hahs-Vaughn, Debbie L; McWayne, Christine M; Bulotsky-Shearer, Rebecca J; Wen, Xiaoli; Faria, Ann-Marie

2011-06-01

Complex survey data are collected by means other than simple random samples. This creates two analytical issues: nonindependence and unequal selection probability. Failing to address these issues results in underestimated standard errors and biased parameter estimates. Using data from the nationally representative Head Start Family and Child Experiences Survey (FACES; 1997 and 2000 cohorts), three diverse multilevel models are presented that illustrate differences in results depending on addressing or ignoring the complex sampling issues. Limitations of using complex survey data are reported, along with recommendations for reporting complex sample results. © The Author(s) 2011

Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.; Dunham, J.B.

2003-01-01

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness.

On the use of posterior predictive probabilities and prediction uncertainty to tailor informative sampling for parasitological surveillance in livestock.

PubMed

Musella, Vincenzo; Rinaldi, Laura; Lagazio, Corrado; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Biggeri, Annibale; Catelan, Dolores

2014-09-15

Model-based geostatistics and Bayesian approaches are appropriate in the context of Veterinary Epidemiology when point data have been collected by valid study designs. The aim is to predict a continuous infection risk surface. Little work has been done on the use of predictive infection probabilities at farm unit level. In this paper we show how to use predictive infection probability and related uncertainty from a Bayesian kriging model to draw a informative samples from the 8794 geo-referenced sheep farms of the Campania region (southern Italy). Parasitological data come from a first cross-sectional survey carried out to study the spatial distribution of selected helminths in sheep farms. A grid sampling was performed to select the farms for coprological examinations. Faecal samples were collected for 121 sheep farms and the presence of 21 different helminths were investigated using the FLOTAC technique. The 21 responses are very different in terms of geographical distribution and prevalence of infection. The observed prevalence range is from 0.83% to 96.69%. The distributions of the posterior predictive probabilities for all the 21 parasites are very heterogeneous. We show how the results of the Bayesian kriging model can be used to plan a second wave survey. Several alternatives can be chosen depending on the purposes of the second survey: weight by posterior predictive probabilities, their uncertainty or combining both information. The proposed Bayesian kriging model is simple, and the proposed samping strategy represents a useful tool to address targeted infection control treatments and surbveillance campaigns. It is easily extendable to other fields of research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

75 FR 34423 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

... collections. The revision consists of a new survey universe, to a probability sample from a panel study, and... universe, the F-73 component is being renamed to the Quarterly Survey of Non-Property Taxes from the...

23 CFR 1340.3 - Basic design requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... STATE OBSERVATIONAL SURVEYS OF SEAT BELT USE § 1340.3 Basic design requirements. Surveys conducted in... requirement. The sample identified for the survey shall have a probability-based design such that estimates... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Basic design requirements. 1340.3 Section 1340.3...

23 CFR 1340.3 - Basic design requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... STATE OBSERVATIONAL SURVEYS OF SEAT BELT USE § 1340.3 Basic design requirements. Surveys conducted in... requirement. The sample identified for the survey shall have a probability-based design such that estimates... 23 Highways 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Basic design requirements. 1340.3 Section 1340.3...

Use of Internet panels to conduct surveys.

PubMed

Hays, Ron D; Liu, Honghu; Kapteyn, Arie

2015-09-01

The use of Internet panels to collect survey data is increasing because it is cost-effective, enables access to large and diverse samples quickly, takes less time than traditional methods to obtain data for analysis, and the standardization of the data collection process makes studies easy to replicate. A variety of probability-based panels have been created, including Telepanel/CentERpanel, Knowledge Networks (now GFK KnowledgePanel), the American Life Panel, the Longitudinal Internet Studies for the Social Sciences panel, and the Understanding America Study panel. Despite the advantage of having a known denominator (sampling frame), the probability-based Internet panels often have low recruitment participation rates, and some have argued that there is little practical difference between opting out of a probability sample and opting into a nonprobability (convenience) Internet panel. This article provides an overview of both probability-based and convenience panels, discussing potential benefits and cautions for each method, and summarizing the approaches used to weight panel respondents in order to better represent the underlying population. Challenges of using Internet panel data are discussed, including false answers, careless responses, giving the same answer repeatedly, getting multiple surveys from the same respondent, and panelists being members of multiple panels. More is to be learned about Internet panels generally and about Web-based data collection, as well as how to evaluate data collected using mobile devices and social-media platforms.

The Sampling Design of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS)

PubMed Central

Xie, Yu; Lu, Ping

2018-01-01

The China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) is an on-going, nearly nationwide, comprehensive, longitudinal social survey that is intended to serve research needs on a large variety of social phenomena in contemporary China. In this paper, we describe the sampling design of the CFPS sample for its 2010 baseline survey and methods for constructing weights to adjust for sampling design and survey nonresponses. Specifically, the CFPS used a multi-stage probability strategy to reduce operation costs and implicit stratification to increase efficiency. Respondents were oversampled in five provinces or administrative equivalents for regional comparisons. We provide operation details for both sampling and weights construction. PMID:29854418

Surveying Europe's Only Cave-Dwelling Chordate Species (Proteus anguinus) Using Environmental DNA.

PubMed

Vörös, Judit; Márton, Orsolya; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Gál, Júlia Tünde; Jelić, Dušan

2017-01-01

In surveillance of subterranean fauna, especially in the case of rare or elusive aquatic species, traditional techniques used for epigean species are often not feasible. We developed a non-invasive survey method based on environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect the presence of the red-listed cave-dwelling amphibian, Proteus anguinus, in the caves of the Dinaric Karst. We tested the method in fifteen caves in Croatia, from which the species was previously recorded or expected to occur. We successfully confirmed the presence of P. anguinus from ten caves and detected the species for the first time in five others. Using a hierarchical occupancy model we compared the availability and detection probability of eDNA of two water sampling methods, filtration and precipitation. The statistical analysis showed that both availability and detection probability depended on the method and estimates for both probabilities were higher using filter samples than for precipitation samples. Combining reliable field and laboratory methods with robust statistical modeling will give the best estimates of species occurrence.

Sampling design for long-term regional trends in marine rocky intertidal communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Gail V.; Shelley, Alice

2013-01-01

Probability-based designs reduce bias and allow inference of results to the pool of sites from which they were chosen. We developed and tested probability-based designs for monitoring marine rocky intertidal assemblages at Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve (GLBA), Alaska. A multilevel design was used that varied in scale and inference. The levels included aerial surveys, extensive sampling of 25 sites, and more intensive sampling of 6 sites. Aerial surveys of a subset of intertidal habitat indicated that the original target habitat of bedrock-dominated sites with slope ≤30° was rare. This unexpected finding illustrated one value of probability-based surveys and led to a shift in the target habitat type to include steeper, more mixed rocky habitat. Subsequently, we evaluated the statistical power of different sampling methods and sampling strategies to detect changes in the abundances of the predominant sessile intertidal taxa: barnacles Balanomorpha, the mussel Mytilus trossulus, and the rockweed Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens. There was greatest power to detect trends in Mytilus and lesser power for barnacles and Fucus. Because of its greater power, the extensive, coarse-grained sampling scheme was adopted in subsequent years over the intensive, fine-grained scheme. The sampling attributes that had the largest effects on power included sampling of “vertical” line transects (vs. horizontal line transects or quadrats) and increasing the number of sites. We also evaluated the power of several management-set parameters. Given equal sampling effort, sampling more sites fewer times had greater power. The information gained through intertidal monitoring is likely to be useful in assessing changes due to climate, including ocean acidification; invasive species; trampling effects; and oil spills.

Presence-nonpresence surveys of golden-cheeked warblers: detection, occupancy and survey effort

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, C.A.; Weckerly, F.W.; Hatfield, J.S.; Farquhar, C.C.; Williamson, P.S.

2008-01-01

Surveys to detect the presence or absence of endangered species may not consistently cover an area, account for imperfect detection or consider that detection and species presence at sample units may change within a survey season. We evaluated a detection?nondetection survey method for the federally endangered golden-cheeked warbler (GCWA) Dendroica chrysoparia. Three study areas were selected across the breeding range of GCWA in central Texas. Within each area, 28-36 detection stations were placed 200 m apart. Each detection station was surveyed nine times during the breeding season in 2 consecutive years. Surveyors remained up to 8 min at each detection station recording GCWA detected by sight or sound. To assess the potential influence of environmental covariates (e.g. slope, aspect, canopy cover, study area) on detection and occupancy and possible changes in occupancy and detection probabilities within breeding seasons, 30 models were analyzed. Using information-theoretic model selection procedures, we found that detection probabilities and occupancy varied among study areas and within breeding seasons. Detection probabilities ranged from 0.20 to 0.80 and occupancy ranged from 0.56 to 0.95. Because study areas with high detection probabilities had high occupancy, a conservative survey effort (erred towards too much surveying) was estimated using the lowest detection probability. We determined that nine surveys of 35 stations were needed to have estimates of occupancy with coefficients of variation <20%. Our survey evaluation evidently captured the key environmental variable that influenced bird detection (GCWA density) and accommodated the changes in GCWA distribution throughout the breeding season.

A sampling design and model for estimating abundance of Nile crocodiles while accounting for heterogeneity of detectability of multiple observers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shirley, Matthew H.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Abassery, Ekramy; Elhady, Amr A.; Mekki, Mohammed S.; Asran, Hosni H.

2012-01-01

As part of the development of a management program for Nile crocodiles in Lake Nasser, Egypt, we used a dependent double-observer sampling protocol with multiple observers to compute estimates of population size. To analyze the data, we developed a hierarchical model that allowed us to assess variation in detection probabilities among observers and survey dates, as well as account for variation in crocodile abundance among sites and habitats. We conducted surveys from July 2008-June 2009 in 15 areas of Lake Nasser that were representative of 3 main habitat categories. During these surveys, we sampled 1,086 km of lake shore wherein we detected 386 crocodiles. Analysis of the data revealed significant variability in both inter- and intra-observer detection probabilities. Our raw encounter rate was 0.355 crocodiles/km. When we accounted for observer effects and habitat, we estimated a surface population abundance of 2,581 (2,239-2,987, 95% credible intervals) crocodiles in Lake Nasser. Our results underscore the importance of well-trained, experienced monitoring personnel in order to decrease heterogeneity in intra-observer detection probability and to better detect changes in the population based on survey indices. This study will assist the Egyptian government establish a monitoring program as an integral part of future crocodile harvest activities in Lake Nasser

Bayesian adaptive survey protocols for resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

2011-01-01

Transparency in resource management decisions requires a proper accounting of uncertainty at multiple stages of the decision-making process. As information becomes available, periodic review and updating of resource management protocols reduces uncertainty and improves management decisions. One of the most basic steps to mitigating anthropogenic effects on populations is determining if a population of a species occurs in an area that will be affected by human activity. Species are rarely detected with certainty, however, and falsely declaring a species absent can cause improper conservation decisions or even extirpation of populations. We propose a method to design survey protocols for imperfectly detected species that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty in the detection process, is capable of quantitatively incorporating expert opinion into the decision-making process, allows periodic updates to the protocol, and permits resource managers to weigh the severity of consequences if the species is falsely declared absent. We developed our method using the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas), a threatened species precinctive to the Central Valley of California, as a case study. Survey date was negatively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake, and water temperature was positively related to the probability of detecting the giant gartersnake at a sampled location. Reporting sampling effort, timing and duration of surveys, and water temperatures would allow resource managers to evaluate the probability that the giant gartersnake occurs at sampled sites where it is not detected. This information would also allow periodic updates and quantitative evaluation of changes to the giant gartersnake survey protocol. Because it naturally allows multiple sources of information and is predicated upon the idea of updating information, Bayesian analysis is well-suited to solving the problem of developing efficient sampling protocols for species of conservation concern.

HISPANIC HEALTH AND NUTRITION EXAMINATION SURVEY (HHANES)

EPA Science Inventory

The Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES) was a nationwide probability sample of approximately 16,000 persons, 6 months-74 years of age. Hispanics were included in past health and nutrition examinations, but neither in sufficient numbers to produce estimates o...

Using a Calendar and Explanatory Instructions to Aid Within-Household Selection in Mail Surveys

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stange, Mathew; Smyth, Jolene D.; Olson, Kristen

2016-01-01

Although researchers can easily select probability samples of addresses using the U.S. Postal Service's Delivery Sequence File, randomly selecting respondents within households for surveys remains challenging. Researchers often place within-household selection instructions, such as the next or last birthday methods, in survey cover letters to…

Workers' Attitudes toward Productivity. A New Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clarke, Ronald H.; And Others

In response to the steady decline in productivity in the United States, the United States Chamber of Commerce in cooperation with the Gallup Organization conducted a survey of workers to determine their attitudes toward productivity. The probability survey sample of more than 800 workers shows that American workers are optimistic about the ability…

Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

2012-01-01

Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance x sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% Cl 182–451) to 529 (95% Cl 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km2 for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities.

Measuring public opinion on alcohol policy: a factor analytic study of a US probability sample.

PubMed

Latimer, William W; Harwood, Eileen M; Newcomb, Michael D; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2003-03-01

Public opinion has been one factor affecting change in policies designed to reduce underage alcohol use. Extant research, however, has been criticized for using single survey items of unknown reliability to define adult attitudes on alcohol policy issues. The present investigation addresses a critical gap in the literature by deriving scales on public attitudes, knowledge, and concerns pertinent to alcohol policies designed to reduce underage drinking using a US probability sample survey of 7021 adults. Five attitudinal scales were derived from exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses addressing policies to: (1) regulate alcohol marketing, (2) regulate alcohol consumption in public places, (3) regulate alcohol distribution, (4) increase alcohol taxes, and (5) regulate youth access. The scales exhibited acceptable psychometric properties and were largely consistent with a rational framework which guided the survey construction.

A Profile of Puerto Rican Health in the United States: Data from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1982-84.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munoz, Eric; And Others

The health conditions and health status of Hispanic Americans will assume increased importance as their population increases. The goal of this book of charts is to present data from the Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES) on Puerto Ricans. The Puerto Rican HHANES sampling procedure is a multi-stage probability sample of…

2012 Workplace and Gender Relations Survey of Reserve Component Members: Statistical Methodology Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

3,435 10,461 9.1 3.1 63 Unmarried with Children+ Unmarried without Children 439,495 0.01 10,350 43,870 10.1 2.2 64 Married with Children+ Married ...logistic regression model was used to predict the probability of eligibility for the survey (known eligibility vs . unknown eligibility). A second logistic...regression model was used to predict the probability of response among eligible sample members (complete response vs . non-response). CHAID (Chi

Integrating modeling and surveys for more effective assessments

EPA Science Inventory

A false dichotomy currently exists in monitoring that pits sample surveys based on probability designs against targeted monitoring of hand-picked sites. We maintain that judicious use of both, when designed to be integrated, produces assessments of greater value than either inde...

Factors influencing detection of the federally endangered Diamond Darter Crystallaria cincotta: Implications for long-term monitoring strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizzo, Austin A.; Brown, Donald J.; Welsh, Stuart A.; Thompson, Patricia A.

2017-01-01

Population monitoring is an essential component of endangered species recovery programs. The federally endangered Diamond Darter Crystallaria cincotta is in need of an effective monitoring design to improve our understanding of its distribution and track population trends. Because of their small size, cryptic coloration, and nocturnal behavior, along with limitations associated with current sampling methods, individuals are difficult to detect at known occupied sites. Therefore, research is needed to determine if survey efforts can be improved by increasing probability of individual detection. The primary objective of this study was to determine if there are seasonal and diel patterns in Diamond Darter detectability during population surveys. In addition to temporal factors, we also assessed five habitat variables that might influence individual detection. We used N-mixture models to estimate site abundances and relationships between covariates and individual detectability and ranked models using Akaike's information criteria. During 2015 three known occupied sites were sampled 15 times each between May and Oct. The best supported model included water temperature as a quadratic function influencing individual detectability, with temperatures around 22 C resulting in the highest detection probability. Detection probability when surveying at the optimal temperature was approximately 6% and 7.5% greater than when surveying at 16 C and 29 C, respectively. Time of Night and day of year were not strong predictors of Diamond Darter detectability. The results of this study will allow researchers and agencies to maximize detection probability when surveying populations, resulting in greater monitoring efficiency and likely more precise abundance estimates.

FISH COMMUNITIES IN LAKE IN SUBREGION 2B (UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN) IN RELATION TO LAKE ACIDITY: VOLUME II. APPENDICES

EPA Science Inventory

Surveys of fish community status were conducted in summer 1987 in 49 lakes in Subregion 20, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as part of Phase II of the Eastern Lake Survey. Lake selection involved a variable probability sampling design. Fish communities were surveyed using gill n...

FISH COMMUNITIES IN LAKE IN SUBREGION 2B (UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN) IN RELATION TO LAKE ACIDITY: VOLUME I

EPA Science Inventory

Surveys of fish community status were conducted in summer 1987 in 49 lakes in Subregion 20, the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, as part of Phase II of the Eastern Lake Survey. Lake selection involved a variable probability sampling design. Fish communities were surveyed using gill n...

The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

PubMed Central

Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

2016-01-01

Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

Review of sampling hard-to-reach and hidden populations for HIV surveillance.

PubMed

Magnani, Robert; Sabin, Keith; Saidel, Tobi; Heckathorn, Douglas

2005-05-01

Adequate surveillance of hard-to-reach and 'hidden' subpopulations is crucial to containing the HIV epidemic in low prevalence settings and in slowing the rate of transmission in high prevalence settings. For a variety of reasons, however, conventional facility and survey-based surveillance data collection strategies are ineffective for a number of key subpopulations, particularly those whose behaviors are illegal or illicit. This paper critically reviews alternative sampling strategies for undertaking behavioral or biological surveillance surveys of such groups. Non-probability sampling approaches such as facility-based sentinel surveillance and snowball sampling are the simplest to carry out, but are subject to a high risk of sampling/selection bias. Most of the probability sampling methods considered are limited in that they are adequate only under certain circumstances and for some groups. One relatively new method, respondent-driven sampling, an adaptation of chain-referral sampling, appears to be the most promising for general applications. However, as its applicability to HIV surveillance in resource-poor settings has yet to be established, further field trials are needed before a firm conclusion can be reached.

Sources of variation in detection of wading birds from aerial surveys in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Peterson, J.T.; Bass, O.L.; Fonnesbeck, C.J.; Howell, J.E.; Moore, C.T.; Runge, J.P.

2008-01-01

We conducted dual-observer trials to estimate detection probabilities (probability that a group that is present and available is detected) for fixed-wing aerial surveys of wading birds in the Everglades system, Florida. Detection probability ranged from <0.2 to similar to 0.75 and varied according to species, group size, observer, and the observer's position in the aircraft (front or rear seat). Aerial-survey simulations indicated that incomplete detection can have a substantial effect oil assessment of population trends, particularly river relatively short intervals (<= 3 years) and small annual changes in population size (<= 3%). We conclude that detection bias is an important consideration for interpreting observations from aerial surveys of wading birds, potentially limiting the use of these data for comparative purposes and trend analyses. We recommend that workers conducting aerial surveys for wading birds endeavor to reduce observer and other controllable sources of detection bias and account for uncontrollable sources through incorporation of dual-observer or other calibratior methods as part of survey design (e.g., using double sampling).

Partitioning Detectability Components in Populations Subject to Within-Season Temporary Emigration Using Binomial Mixture Models

PubMed Central

O’Donnell, Katherine M.; Thompson, Frank R.; Semlitsch, Raymond D.

2015-01-01

Detectability of individual animals is highly variable and nearly always < 1; imperfect detection must be accounted for to reliably estimate population sizes and trends. Hierarchical models can simultaneously estimate abundance and effective detection probability, but there are several different mechanisms that cause variation in detectability. Neglecting temporary emigration can lead to biased population estimates because availability and conditional detection probability are confounded. In this study, we extend previous hierarchical binomial mixture models to account for multiple sources of variation in detectability. The state process of the hierarchical model describes ecological mechanisms that generate spatial and temporal patterns in abundance, while the observation model accounts for the imperfect nature of counting individuals due to temporary emigration and false absences. We illustrate our model’s potential advantages, including the allowance of temporary emigration between sampling periods, with a case study of southern red-backed salamanders Plethodon serratus. We fit our model and a standard binomial mixture model to counts of terrestrial salamanders surveyed at 40 sites during 3–5 surveys each spring and fall 2010–2012. Our models generated similar parameter estimates to standard binomial mixture models. Aspect was the best predictor of salamander abundance in our case study; abundance increased as aspect became more northeasterly. Increased time-since-rainfall strongly decreased salamander surface activity (i.e. availability for sampling), while higher amounts of woody cover objects and rocks increased conditional detection probability (i.e. probability of capture, given an animal is exposed to sampling). By explicitly accounting for both components of detectability, we increased congruence between our statistical modeling and our ecological understanding of the system. We stress the importance of choosing survey locations and protocols that maximize species availability and conditional detection probability to increase population parameter estimate reliability. PMID:25775182

Pairing call-response surveys and distance sampling for a mammalian carnivore

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Sara J. K.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Underwood, Harold B.; Gibbs, James P.

2015-01-01

Density estimates accounting for differential animal detectability are difficult to acquire for wide-ranging and elusive species such as mammalian carnivores. Pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys may provide an efficient means of tracking changes in populations of coyotes (Canis latrans), a species of particular interest in the eastern United States. Blind field trials in rural New York State indicated 119-m linear error for triangulated coyote calls, and a 1.8-km distance threshold for call detectability, which was sufficient to estimate a detection function with precision using distance sampling. We conducted statewide road-based surveys with sampling locations spaced ≥6 km apart from June to August 2010. Each detected call (be it a single or group) counted as a single object, representing 1 territorial pair, because of uncertainty in the number of vocalizing animals. From 524 survey points and 75 detections, we estimated the probability of detecting a calling coyote to be 0.17 ± 0.02 SE, yielding a detection-corrected index of 0.75 pairs/10 km2 (95% CI: 0.52–1.1, 18.5% CV) for a minimum of 8,133 pairs across rural New York State. Importantly, we consider this an index rather than true estimate of abundance given the unknown probability of coyote availability for detection during our surveys. Even so, pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys provided a novel, efficient, and noninvasive means of monitoring populations of wide-ranging and elusive, albeit reliably vocal, mammalian carnivores. Our approach offers an effective new means of tracking species like coyotes, one that is readily extendable to other species and geographic extents, provided key assumptions of distance sampling are met.

Point of data saturation was assessed using resampling methods in a survey with open-ended questions.

PubMed

Tran, Viet-Thi; Porcher, Raphael; Falissard, Bruno; Ravaud, Philippe

2016-12-01

To describe methods to determine sample sizes in surveys using open-ended questions and to assess how resampling methods can be used to determine data saturation in these surveys. We searched the literature for surveys with open-ended questions and assessed the methods used to determine sample size in 100 studies selected at random. Then, we used Monte Carlo simulations on data from a previous study on the burden of treatment to assess the probability of identifying new themes as a function of the number of patients recruited. In the literature, 85% of researchers used a convenience sample, with a median size of 167 participants (interquartile range [IQR] = 69-406). In our simulation study, the probability of identifying at least one new theme for the next included subject was 32%, 24%, and 12% after the inclusion of 30, 50, and 100 subjects, respectively. The inclusion of 150 participants at random resulted in the identification of 92% themes (IQR = 91-93%) identified in the original study. In our study, data saturation was most certainly reached for samples >150 participants. Our method may be used to determine when to continue the study to find new themes or stop because of futility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aerial survey methodology for bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hess, Steven C.

2002-01-01

I developed aerial survey methods for statistically rigorous bison population estimation in Yellowstone National Park to support sound resource management decisions and to understand bison ecology. Survey protocols, data recording procedures, a geographic framework, and seasonal stratifications were based on field observations from February 1998-September 2000. The reliability of this framework and strata were tested with long-term data from 1970-1997. I simulated different sample survey designs and compared them to high-effort censuses of well-defined large areas to evaluate effort, precision, and bias. Sample survey designs require much effort and extensive information on the current spatial distribution of bison and therefore do not offer any substantial reduction in time and effort over censuses. I conducted concurrent ground surveys, or 'double sampling' to estimate detection probability during aerial surveys. Group size distribution and habitat strongly affected detection probability. In winter, 75% of the groups and 92% of individual bison were detected on average from aircraft, while in summer, 79% of groups and 97% of individual bison were detected. I also used photography to quantify the bias due to counting large groups of bison accurately and found that undercounting increased with group size and could reach 15%. I compared survey conditions between seasons and identified optimal time windows for conducting surveys in both winter and summer. These windows account for the habitats and total area bison occupy, and group size distribution. Bison became increasingly scattered over the Yellowstone region in smaller groups and more occupied unfavorable habitats as winter progressed. Therefore, the best conditions for winter surveys occur early in the season (Dec-Jan). In summer, bison were most spatially aggregated and occurred in the largest groups by early August. Low variability between surveys and high detection probability provide population estimates with an overall coefficient of variation of approximately 8% and have high power for detecting trends in population change. I demonstrated how population estimates from winter and summer can be integrated into a comprehensive monitoring program to estimate annual growth rates, overall winter mortality, and an index of calf production, requiring about 30 hours of flight per year.

Surveying Europe’s Only Cave-Dwelling Chordate Species (Proteus anguinus) Using Environmental DNA

PubMed Central

Márton, Orsolya; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Gál, Júlia Tünde; Jelić, Dušan

2017-01-01

In surveillance of subterranean fauna, especially in the case of rare or elusive aquatic species, traditional techniques used for epigean species are often not feasible. We developed a non-invasive survey method based on environmental DNA (eDNA) to detect the presence of the red-listed cave-dwelling amphibian, Proteus anguinus, in the caves of the Dinaric Karst. We tested the method in fifteen caves in Croatia, from which the species was previously recorded or expected to occur. We successfully confirmed the presence of P. anguinus from ten caves and detected the species for the first time in five others. Using a hierarchical occupancy model we compared the availability and detection probability of eDNA of two water sampling methods, filtration and precipitation. The statistical analysis showed that both availability and detection probability depended on the method and estimates for both probabilities were higher using filter samples than for precipitation samples. Combining reliable field and laboratory methods with robust statistical modeling will give the best estimates of species occurrence. PMID:28129383

INDICATORS OF ECOLOGICAL STRESS AND THEIR EXTENT IN THE POPULATION OF NORTHEASTERN LAKES

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) surveyed 345 northeastern lakes, during 1991-1996, in the first regional-scale survey to use a probability-based sampling design to collect biological assemblage data along with a broad range of physical and chemical indi...

eDNAoccupancy: An R package for multi-scale occupancy modeling of environmental DNA data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert; Erickson, Richard A.

2017-01-01

In this article we describe eDNAoccupancy, an R package for fitting Bayesian, multi-scale occupancy models. These models are appropriate for occupancy surveys that include three, nested levels of sampling: primary sample units within a study area, secondary sample units collected from each primary unit, and replicates of each secondary sample unit. This design is commonly used in occupancy surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA). eDNAoccupancy allows users to specify and fit multi-scale occupancy models with or without covariates, to estimate posterior summaries of occurrence and detection probabilities, and to compare different models using Bayesian model-selection criteria. We illustrate these features by analyzing two published data sets: eDNA surveys of a fungal pathogen of amphibians and eDNA surveys of an endangered fish species.

The Mood of American Youth. Based on a 1983 Survey of American Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Association of Secondary School Principals, Reston, VA.

This 1984 report by the National Association of Secondary School Principals is based on a survey of 1,500 students from grades 7 through 12 selected by means of a probability sample by National Family Opinions, Inc. The report compares today's students with those surveyed in a similar study in 1974. Chapter 1, "Students and Their Schools,"…

Void statistics of the CfA redshift survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogeley, Michael S.; Geller, Margaret J.; Huchra, John P.

1991-01-01

Clustering properties of two samples from the CfA redshift survey, each containing about 2500 galaxies, are studied. A comparison of the velocity distributions via a K-S test reveals structure on scales comparable with the extent of the survey. The void probability function (VPF) is employed for these samples to examine the structure and to test for scaling relations in the galaxy distribution. The galaxy correlation function is calculated via moments of galaxy counts. The shape and amplitude of the correlation function roughly agree with previous determinations. The VPFs for distance-limited samples of the CfA survey do not match the scaling relation predicted by the hierarchical clustering models. On scales not greater than 10/h Mpc, the VPFs for these samples roughly follow the hierarchical pattern. A variant of the VPF which uses nearly all the data in magnitude-limited samples is introduced; it accounts for the variation of the sampling density with velocity in a magnitude-limited survey.

Void statistics of the CfA redshift survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogeley, Michael S.; Geller, Margaret J.; Huchra, John P.

1991-11-01

Clustering properties of two samples from the CfA redshift survey, each containing about 2500 galaxies, are studied. A comparison of the velocity distributions via a K-S test reveals structure on scales comparable with the extent of the survey. The void probability function (VPF) is employed for these samples to examine the structure and to test for scaling relations in the galaxy distribution. The galaxy correlation function is calculated via moments of galaxy counts. The shape and amplitude of the correlation function roughly agree with previous determinations. The VPFs for distance-limited samples of the CfA survey do not match the scaling relation predicted by the hierarchical clustering models. On scales not greater than 10/h Mpc, the VPFs for these samples roughly follow the hierarchical pattern. A variant of the VPF which uses nearly all the data in magnitude-limited samples is introduced; it accounts for the variation of the sampling density with velocity in a magnitude-limited survey.

Distribution and abundance of Millicoma Dace in the Coos River Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scheerer, Paul D.; Peterson, James T.; Clements, Shaun

2017-01-01

The Millicoma Dace Rhinichthys cataractae is a form of Longnose Dace endemic to the Coos River drainage in southwestern Oregon. Sparse species records in the Oregon State University Ichthyology Collection and database and infrequent recent encounters prompted surveys to assess the current status and distribution of the species. In 2014, we surveyed locations that had historically supported Millicoma Dace using backpack electrofishing to describe their current distribution and abundance at these locations. In 2015, we extended these surveys further upstream in the South Coos River basin, outside of the documented historical range. We used an N-mixture model to estimate abundance and capture probability for Millicoma Dace at each sampling location. We evaluated the effects of habitat covariates on both capture probability and abundance at each sample site. We found Millicoma Dace were widespread throughout their historical range and in the South Coos River sites outside of their documented historical range. We only found Millicoma Dace associated with native fishes; we did not collect any nonnative fish during our surveys. We collected Millicoma Dace exclusively from swift-water habitats, which were relatively uncommon in the basin, and found them typically associated with cobble or boulder substrates. Millicoma Dace were most abundant in the South Fork Coos and West Fork Millicoma River subbasins. We estimated capture probabilities for Millicoma Dace ranging from 9% when substrate was dominated by bedrock to 28% when substrate was dominated by cobble or gravel. Abundance estimates ranged from 1 to 560 dace per sampling location with a total estimated abundance (sum of site estimates) of over 3200 dace for the sites we sampled.

Literacy, Economy and Society. Results of the First International Adult Literacy Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Statistics Canada, Ottawa (Ontario).

The International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS) was a collaborative effort by seven governments and three intergovernmental organizations to describe and compare the literacy skills of people from Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. Each country drew a probability sample from which results…

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (EMAP): WESTERN STREAMS AND RIVERS STATISTICAL SUMMARY

EPA Science Inventory

This statistical summary reports data from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Western Pilot (EMAP-W). EMAP-W was a sample survey (or probability survey, often simply called 'random') of streams and rivers in 12 states of the western U.S. (Arizona, Californ...

VARIANCE ESTIMATION FOR SPATIALLY BALANCED SAMPLES OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The spatial distribution of a natural resource is an important consideration in designing an efficient survey or monitoring program for the resource. We review a unified strategy for designing probability samples of discrete, finite resource populations, such as lakes within som...

Survey of lunar carbon compounds. I - The presence of indigenous gases and hydrolysable carbon compounds in Apollo 11 and Apollo 12 samples

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abell, P. I.; Cadogan, P. H.; Eglinton, G.; Maxwell, J. R.; Pillinger, C. T.

1971-01-01

Indigenous gases and hydrolyzable carbon compounds in Apollo 11 and 12 samples through gas chromatographic and mass spectrometric examination, noting meteoritic impact and solar wind implantation as probable origins

Detection probability in aerial surveys of feral horses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ransom, Jason I.

2011-01-01

Observation bias pervades data collected during aerial surveys of large animals, and although some sources can be mitigated with informed planning, others must be addressed using valid sampling techniques that carefully model detection probability. Nonetheless, aerial surveys are frequently employed to count large mammals without applying such methods to account for heterogeneity in visibility of animal groups on the landscape. This often leaves managers and interest groups at odds over decisions that are not adequately informed. I analyzed detection of feral horse (Equus caballus) groups by dual independent observers from 24 fixed-wing and 16 helicopter flights using mixed-effect logistic regression models to investigate potential sources of observation bias. I accounted for observer skill, population location, and aircraft type in the model structure and analyzed the effects of group size, sun effect (position related to observer), vegetation type, topography, cloud cover, percent snow cover, and observer fatigue on detection of horse groups. The most important model-averaged effects for both fixed-wing and helicopter surveys included group size (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.891, 95% CI = 0.850–0.935; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.640, 95% CI = 0.587–0.698) and sun effect (fixed-wing: odds ratio = 0.632, 95% CI = 0.350–1.141; helicopter: odds ratio = 0.194, 95% CI = 0.080–0.470). Observer fatigue was also an important effect in the best model for helicopter surveys, with detection probability declining after 3 hr of survey time (odds ratio = 0.278, 95% CI = 0.144–0.537). Biases arising from sun effect and observer fatigue can be mitigated by pre-flight survey design. Other sources of bias, such as those arising from group size, topography, and vegetation can only be addressed by employing valid sampling techniques such as double sampling, mark–resight (batch-marked animals), mark–recapture (uniquely marked and identifiable animals), sightability bias correction models, and line transect distance sampling; however, some of these techniques may still only partially correct for negative observation biases.

Hidden Populations, Online Purposive Sampling, and External Validity: Taking off the Blindfold

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barratt, Monica J.; Ferris, Jason A.; Lenton, Simon

2015-01-01

Online purposive samples have unknown biases and may not strictly be used to make inferences about wider populations, yet such inferences continue to occur. We compared the demographic and drug use characteristics of Australian ecstasy users from a probability (National Drug Strategy Household Survey, n = 726) and purposive sample (online survey…

Analysing designed experiments in distance sampling

Treesearch

Stephen T. Buckland; Robin E. Russell; Brett G. Dickson; Victoria A. Saab; Donal N. Gorman; William M. Block

2009-01-01

Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer's ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates...

The surface water register: an empirically improved sample frame for monitoring the rivers and streams of Kansas

EPA Science Inventory

State-wide monitoring based on probability survey designs requires a spatially explicit representation of all streams and rivers of interest within a state, i.e., a sample frame. The sample frame should be the best available map representation of the resource. Many stream progr...

The costs of evaluating species densities and composition of snakes to assess development impacts in amazonia.

PubMed

Fraga, Rafael de; Stow, Adam J; Magnusson, William E; Lima, Albertina P

2014-01-01

Studies leading to decision-making for environmental licensing often fail to provide accurate estimates of diversity. Measures of snake diversity are regularly obtained to assess development impacts in the rainforests of the Amazon Basin, but this taxonomic group may be subject to poor detection probabilities. Recently, the Brazilian government tried to standardize sampling designs by the implementation of a system (RAPELD) to quantify biological diversity using spatially-standardized sampling units. Consistency in sampling design allows the detection probabilities to be compared among taxa, and sampling effort and associated cost to be evaluated. The cost effectiveness of detecting snakes has received no attention in Amazonia. Here we tested the effects of reducing sampling effort on estimates of species densities and assemblage composition. We identified snakes in seven plot systems, each standardised with 14 plots. The 250 m long centre line of each plot followed an altitudinal contour. Surveys were repeated four times in each plot and detection probabilities were estimated for the 41 species encountered. Reducing the number of observations, or the size of the sampling modules, caused significant loss of information on species densities and local patterns of variation in assemblage composition. We estimated the cost to find a snake as $ 120 U.S., but general linear models indicated the possibility of identifying differences in assemblage composition for half the overall survey costs. Decisions to reduce sampling effort depend on the importance of lost information to target-issues, and may not be the preferred option if there is the potential for identifying individual snake species requiring specific conservation actions. However, in most studies of human disturbance on species assemblages, it is likely to be more cost-effective to focus on other groups of organisms with higher detection probabilities.

The Costs of Evaluating Species Densities and Composition of Snakes to Assess Development Impacts in Amazonia

PubMed Central

de Fraga, Rafael; Stow, Adam J.; Magnusson, William E.; Lima, Albertina P.

2014-01-01

Studies leading to decision-making for environmental licensing often fail to provide accurate estimates of diversity. Measures of snake diversity are regularly obtained to assess development impacts in the rainforests of the Amazon Basin, but this taxonomic group may be subject to poor detection probabilities. Recently, the Brazilian government tried to standardize sampling designs by the implementation of a system (RAPELD) to quantify biological diversity using spatially-standardized sampling units. Consistency in sampling design allows the detection probabilities to be compared among taxa, and sampling effort and associated cost to be evaluated. The cost effectiveness of detecting snakes has received no attention in Amazonia. Here we tested the effects of reducing sampling effort on estimates of species densities and assemblage composition. We identified snakes in seven plot systems, each standardised with 14 plots. The 250 m long centre line of each plot followed an altitudinal contour. Surveys were repeated four times in each plot and detection probabilities were estimated for the 41 species encountered. Reducing the number of observations, or the size of the sampling modules, caused significant loss of information on species densities and local patterns of variation in assemblage composition. We estimated the cost to find a snake as $ 120 U.S., but general linear models indicated the possibility of identifying differences in assemblage composition for half the overall survey costs. Decisions to reduce sampling effort depend on the importance of lost information to target-issues, and may not be the preferred option if there is the potential for identifying individual snake species requiring specific conservation actions. However, in most studies of human disturbance on species assemblages, it is likely to be more cost-effective to focus on other groups of organisms with higher detection probabilities. PMID:25147930

Survey design for lakes and reservoirs in the United States to assess contaminants in fish tissue.

PubMed

Olsen, Anthony R; Snyder, Blaine D; Stahl, Leanne L; Pitt, Jennifer L

2009-03-01

The National Lake Fish Tissue Study (NLFTS) was the first survey of fish contamination in lakes and reservoirs in the 48 conterminous states based on a probability survey design. This study included the largest set (268) of persistent, bioaccumulative, and toxic (PBT) chemicals ever studied in predator and bottom-dwelling fish species. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) implemented the study in cooperation with states, tribal nations, and other federal agencies, with field collection occurring at 500 lakes and reservoirs over a four-year period (2000-2003). The sampled lakes and reservoirs were selected using a spatially balanced unequal probability survey design from 270,761 lake objects in USEPA's River Reach File Version 3 (RF3). The survey design selected 900 lake objects, with a reserve sample of 900, equally distributed across six lake area categories. A total of 1,001 lake objects were evaluated to identify 500 lake objects that met the study's definition of a lake and could be accessed for sampling. Based on the 1,001 evaluated lakes, it was estimated that a target population of 147,343 (+/-7% with 95% confidence) lakes and reservoirs met the NLFTS definition of a lake. Of the estimated 147,343 target lakes, 47% were estimated not to be sampleable either due to landowner access denial (35%) or due to physical barriers (12%). It was estimated that a sampled population of 78,664 (+/-12% with 95% confidence) lakes met the NLFTS lake definition, had either predator or bottom-dwelling fish present, and could be sampled.

INDICATORS OF ECOLOGICAL STRESS AND THEIR EXTENT IN THE POPULATION OF NORTHEASTERN LAKES: A REGIONAL-SCALE ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

One of the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program's first projects was a survey of 345 lakes in the eight states of the Northeast, during summers of 1991-1996. This survey was the first regional-scale attempt to use a probability-based sampling design to collect biolog...

Evaluation of New York state's mandatory occupant restraint law. Volume 1, Observational surveys of safety restraint use in New York State

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-12-01

This is the final report on the results of three observational surveys of restraint use by front seat occupants conducted as part of the evaluation of New York's Mandatory Occupant Restraint Law. Observations were conducted at a probability sample of...

Program SimAssem: software for simulating species assemblages and estimating species richness

Treesearch

Gordon C. Reese; Kenneth R. Wilson; Curtis H. Flather

2013-01-01

1. Species richness, the number of species in a defined area, is the most frequently used biodiversity measure. Despite its intuitive appeal and conceptual simplicity, species richness is often difficult to quantify, even in well surveyed areas, because of sampling limitations such as survey effort and species detection probability....

A comparison of survey methods for documenting presence of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bats) at roosting areas in Western Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huth, John K.; Silvis, Alexander; Moosman, Paul R.; Ford, W. Mark; Sweeten, Sara E.

2015-01-01

Many aspects of foraging and roosting habitat of Myotis leibii (Eastern Small-Footed Bat), an emergent rock roosting-obligate, are poorly described. Previous comparisons of effectiveness of acoustic sampling and mist-net captures have not included Eastern Small-Footed Bat. Habitat requirements of this species differ from congeners in the region, and it is unclear whether survey protocols developed for other species are applicable. Using data from three overlapping studies at two sampling sites in western Virginia’s central Appalachian Mountains, detection probabilities were examined for three survey methods (acoustic surveys with automated identification of calls, visual searches of rock crevices, and mist-netting) for use in the development of “best practices” for future surveys and monitoring. Observer effects were investigated using an expanded version of visual search data. Results suggested that acoustic surveys with automated call identification are not effective for documenting presence of Eastern Small-Footed Bats on talus slopes (basal detection rate of 0%) even when the species is known to be present. The broadband, high frequency echolocation calls emitted by Eastern Small-Footed Bat may be prone to attenuation by virtue of their high frequencies, and these factors, along with signal reflection, lower echolocation rates or possible misidentification to other bat species over talus slopes may all have contributed to poor acoustic survey success. Visual searches and mist-netting of emergent rock had basal detection probabilities of 91% and 75%, respectively. Success of visual searches varied among observers, but detection probability improved with practice. Additionally, visual searches were considerably more economical than mist-netting.

Statistical methods for identifying and bounding a UXO target area or minefield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKinstry, Craig A.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Gilbert, Richard O.

2003-09-18

The sampling unit for minefield or UXO area characterization is typically represented by a geographical block or transect swath that lends itself to characterization by geophysical instrumentation such as mobile sensor arrays. New spatially based statistical survey methods and tools, more appropriate for these unique sampling units have been developed and implemented at PNNL (Visual Sample Plan software, ver. 2.0) with support from the US Department of Defense. Though originally developed to support UXO detection and removal efforts, these tools may also be used in current form or adapted to support demining efforts and aid in the development of newmore » sensors and detection technologies by explicitly incorporating both sampling and detection error in performance assessments. These tools may be used to (1) determine transect designs for detecting and bounding target areas of critical size, shape, and density of detectable items of interest with a specified confidence probability, (2) evaluate the probability that target areas of a specified size, shape and density have not been missed by a systematic or meandering transect survey, and (3) support post-removal verification by calculating the number of transects required to achieve a specified confidence probability that no UXO or mines have been missed.« less

Short assessment of the Big Five: robust across survey methods except telephone interviewing.

PubMed

Lang, Frieder R; John, Dennis; Lüdtke, Oliver; Schupp, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G

2011-06-01

We examined measurement invariance and age-related robustness of a short 15-item Big Five Inventory (BFI-S) of personality dimensions, which is well suited for applications in large-scale multidisciplinary surveys. The BFI-S was assessed in three different interviewing conditions: computer-assisted or paper-assisted face-to-face interviewing, computer-assisted telephone interviewing, and a self-administered questionnaire. Randomized probability samples from a large-scale German panel survey and a related probability telephone study were used in order to test method effects on self-report measures of personality characteristics across early, middle, and late adulthood. Exploratory structural equation modeling was used in order to test for measurement invariance of the five-factor model of personality trait domains across different assessment methods. For the short inventory, findings suggest strong robustness of self-report measures of personality dimensions among young and middle-aged adults. In old age, telephone interviewing was associated with greater distortions in reliable personality assessment. It is concluded that the greater mental workload of telephone interviewing limits the reliability of self-report personality assessment. Face-to-face surveys and self-administrated questionnaire completion are clearly better suited than phone surveys when personality traits in age-heterogeneous samples are assessed.

Designing efficient surveys: spatial arrangement of sample points for detection of invasive species

Treesearch

Ludek Berec; John M. Kean; Rebecca Epanchin-Niell; Andrew M. Liebhold; Robert G. Haight

2015-01-01

Effective surveillance is critical to managing biological invasions via early detection and eradication. The efficiency of surveillance systems may be affected by the spatial arrangement of sample locations. We investigate how the spatial arrangement of sample points, ranging from random to fixed grid arrangements, affects the probability of detecting a target...

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEMPERATURE, PHYSICAL HABITAT AND FISH ASSEMBLAGE DATA IN A STATE WIDE PROBABILITY SURVEY OF OREGON STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

To assess the ecological condition of streams and rivers in Oregon, we sampled 146 sites
in summer, 1997 as part of the U.S. EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program.
Sample reaches were selected using a systematic, randomized sample design from the blue-line n...

On the importance of incorporating sampling weights in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Occupancy models are used extensively to assess wildlife-habitat associations and to predict species distributions across large geographic regions. Occupancy models were developed as a tool to properly account for imperfect detection of a species. Current guidelines on survey design requirements for occupancy models focus on the number of sample units and the pattern of revisits to a sample unit within a season. We focus on the sampling design or how the sample units are selected in geographic space (e.g., stratified, simple random, unequal probability, etc). In a probability design, each sample unit has a sample weight which quantifies the number of sample units it represents in the finite (oftentimes areal) sampling frame. We demonstrate the importance of including sampling weights in occupancy model estimation when the design is not a simple random sample or equal probability design. We assume a finite areal sampling frame as proposed for a national bat monitoring program. We compare several unequal and equal probability designs and varying sampling intensity within a simulation study. We found the traditional single season occupancy model produced biased estimates of occupancy and lower confidence interval coverage rates compared to occupancy models that accounted for the sampling design. We also discuss how our findings inform the analyses proposed for the nascent North American Bat Monitoring Program and other collaborative synthesis efforts that propose h

Beliefs about women's vibrator use: results from a nationally representative probability survey in the United States.

PubMed

Herbenick, Debra; Reece, Michael; Schick, Vanessa; Jozkowski, Kristen N; Middelstadt, Susan E; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian S; Ghassemi, Annahita; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2011-01-01

Women's vibrator use is common in the United States, although little is known about beliefs about its use. Elicitation surveys and interviews informed the development of a 10-item scale, the Beliefs About Women's Vibrator Use Scale, which was administered to a nationally representative probability sample of adults ages 18 to 60 years. Most women and men held high positive and low negative beliefs about women's vibrator use. Women with positive beliefs reported higher Female Sexual Function Index scores related to arousal, lubrication, orgasm, satisfaction, and pain (indicating less pain).

Designing occupancy studies when false-positive detections occur

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clement, Matthew

2016-01-01

1.Recently, estimators have been developed to estimate occupancy probabilities when false-positive detections occur during presence-absence surveys. Some of these estimators combine different types of survey data to improve estimates of occupancy. With these estimators, there is a tradeoff between the number of sample units surveyed, and the number and type of surveys at each sample unit. Guidance on efficient design of studies when false positives occur is unavailable. 2.For a range of scenarios, I identified survey designs that minimized the mean square error of the estimate of occupancy. I considered an approach that uses one survey method and two observation states and an approach that uses two survey methods. For each approach, I used numerical methods to identify optimal survey designs when model assumptions were met and parameter values were correctly anticipated, when parameter values were not correctly anticipated, and when the assumption of no unmodelled detection heterogeneity was violated. 3.Under the approach with two observation states, false positive detections increased the number of recommended surveys, relative to standard occupancy models. If parameter values could not be anticipated, pessimism about detection probabilities avoided poor designs. Detection heterogeneity could require more or fewer repeat surveys, depending on parameter values. If model assumptions were met, the approach with two survey methods was inefficient. However, with poor anticipation of parameter values, with detection heterogeneity, or with removal sampling schemes, combining two survey methods could improve estimates of occupancy. 4.Ignoring false positives can yield biased parameter estimates, yet false positives greatly complicate the design of occupancy studies. Specific guidance for major types of false-positive occupancy models, and for two assumption violations common in field data, can conserve survey resources. This guidance can be used to design efficient monitoring programs and studies of species occurrence, species distribution, or habitat selection, when false positives occur during surveys.

Mammal Inventory of the Mojave Network Parks-Death Valley and Joshua Tree National Parks, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Manzanar National Historic Site, and Mojave National Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drost, Charles A.; Hart, Jan

2008-01-01

This report describes the results of a mammal inventory study of National Park Service units in the Mojave Desert Network, including Death Valley National Park, Joshua Tree National Park, Lake Mead National Recreation Area, Manzanar National Historic Site, and Mojave National Preserve. Fieldwork for the inventory focused on small mammals, primarily rodents and bats. Fieldwork for terrestrial small mammals used trapping with Sherman and Tomahawk small- and medium-sized mammal traps, along with visual surveys for diurnal species. The majority of sampling for terrestrial small mammals was carried out in 2002 and 2003. Methods used in field surveys for bats included mist-netting at tanks and other water bodies, along with acoustic surveys using Anabat. Most of the bat survey work was conducted in 2003. Because of extremely dry conditions in the first two survey years (and associated low mammal numbers), we extended field sampling into 2004, following a relatively wet winter. In addition to field sampling, we also reviewed, evaluated, and summarized museum and literature records of mammal species for all of the Park units. We documented a total of 59 mammal species as present at Death Valley National Park, with an additional five species that we consider of probable occurrence. At Joshua Tree, we also documented 50 species, and an additional four 'probable' species. At Lake Mead National Recreation Area, 57 mammal species have been positively documented, with 10 additional probable species. Manzanar National Historic Site had not been previously surveyed. We documented 19 mammal species at Manzanar, with an additional 11 probable species. Mojave National Preserve had not had a comprehensive list previously, either. There are now a total of 50 mammal species documented at Mojave, with three additional probable species. Of these totals, 23 occurrences are new at individual park units (positively documented for the first time), with most of these being at Manzanar. Noteworthy additions include western mastiff bat at Joshua Tree, house mouse at a number of wildland sites at Lake Mead, and San Diego pocket mouse at Mojave National Preserve. There are also species that have been lost from the Mojave Network parks. We discuss remaining questions, including the possible occurrence of additional species at each park area (most of these are marginal species whose distributional range may or may not edge into the boundaries of the area). Taxonomic changes are also discussed, along with potential erroneous species records.

Estimating population abundance and mapping distribution of wintering sea ducks in coastal waters of the mid-Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koneff, M.D.; Royle, J. Andrew; Forsell, D.J.; Wortham, J.S.; Boomer, G.S.; Perry, M.C.

2005-01-01

Survey design for wintering scoters (Melanitta sp.) and other sea ducks that occur in offshore waters is challenging because these species have large ranges, are subject to distributional shifts among years and within a season, and can occur in aggregations. Interest in winter sea duck population abundance surveys has grown in recent years. This interest stems from concern over the population status of some sea ducks, limitations of extant breeding waterfowl survey programs in North America and logistical challenges and costs of conducting surveys in northern breeding regions, high winter area philopatry in some species and potential conservation implications, and increasing concern over offshore development and other threats to sea duck wintering habitats. The efficiency and practicality of statistically-rigorous monitoring strategies for mobile, aggregated wintering sea duck populations have not been sufficiently investigated. This study evaluated a 2-phase adaptive stratified strip transect sampling plan to estimate wintering population size of scoters, long-tailed ducks (Clangua hyemalis), and other sea ducks and provide information on distribution. The sampling plan results in an optimal allocation of a fixed sampling effort among offshore strata in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast region. Phase I transect selection probabilities were based on historic distribution and abundance data, while Phase 2 selection probabilities were based on observations made during Phase 1 flights. Distance sampling methods were used to estimate detection rates. Environmental variables thought to affect detection rates were recorded during the survey and post-stratification and covariate modeling were investigated to reduce the effect of heterogeneity on detection estimation. We assessed cost-precision tradeoffs under a number of fixed-cost sampling scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation. We discuss advantages and limitations of this sampling design for estimating wintering sea duck abundance and mapping distribution and suggest improvements for future surveys.

Texas School Survey of Substance Abuse: Grades 7-12. 1992.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Liang Y.; Fredlund, Eric V.

The 1992 Texas School Survey results for secondary students are based on data collected from a sample of 73,073 students in grades 7 through 12. Students were randomly selected from school districts throughout the state using a multi-stage probability design. The procedure ensured that students living in metropolitan and rural areas of Texas are…

Has Adolescent Suicidality Decreased in the United States? Data From Two National Samples of Adolescents Interviewed in 1995 and 2005

PubMed Central

Wolitzky-Taylor, Kate B.; Ruggiero, Kenneth J.; McCart, Michael R.; Smith, Daniel W.; Hanson, Rochelle F.; Resnick, Heidi S.; de Arellano, Michael A.; Saunders, Benjamin E.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.

2011-01-01

We compared the prevalence and correlates of adolescent suicidal ideation and attempts in two nationally representative probability samples of adolescents interviewed in 1995 (National Survey of Adolescents; N =4,023) and 2005 (National Survey of Adolescents-Replication; N =3,614). Participants in both samples completed a telephone survey that assessed major depressive episode (MDE), post-traumatic stress disorder, suicidal ideation and attempts, violence exposure, and substance use. Results demonstrated that the lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideation among adolescents was lower in 2005 than 1995, whereas the prevalence of suicide attempts remained stable. MDE was the strongest predictor of suicidality in both samples. In addition, several demographic, substance use, and violence exposure variables were significantly associated with increased risk of suicidal ideation and attempts in both samples, with female gender, nonexperimental drug use, and direct violence exposure being consistent risk factors in both samples. PMID:20390799

Critical review of the United Kingdom's "gold standard" survey of public attitudes to science.

PubMed

Smith, Benjamin K; Jensen, Eric A

2016-02-01

Since 2000, the UK government has funded surveys aimed at understanding the UK public's attitudes toward science, scientists, and science policy. Known as the Public Attitudes to Science series, these surveys and their predecessors have long been used in UK science communication policy, practice, and scholarship as a source of authoritative knowledge about science-related attitudes and behaviors. Given their importance and the significant public funding investment they represent, detailed academic scrutiny of the studies is needed. In this essay, we critically review the most recently published Public Attitudes to Science survey (2014), assessing the robustness of its methods and claims. The review casts doubt on the quality of key elements of the Public Attitudes to Science 2014 survey data and analysis while highlighting the importance of robust quantitative social research methodology. Our analysis comparing the main sample and booster sample for young people demonstrates that quota sampling cannot be assumed equivalent to probability-based sampling techniques. © The Author(s) 2016.

Optimizing occupancy surveys by maximizing detection probability: application to amphibian monitoring in the Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Petitot, Maud; Manceau, Nicolas; Geniez, Philippe; Besnard, Aurélien

2014-09-01

Setting up effective conservation strategies requires the precise determination of the targeted species' distribution area and, if possible, its local abundance. However, detection issues make these objectives complex for most vertebrates. The detection probability is usually <1 and is highly dependent on species phenology and other environmental variables. The aim of this study was to define an optimized survey protocol for the Mediterranean amphibian community, that is, to determine the most favorable periods and the most effective sampling techniques for detecting all species present on a site in a minimum number of field sessions and a minimum amount of prospecting effort. We visited 49 ponds located in the Languedoc region of southern France on four occasions between February and June 2011. Amphibians were detected using three methods: nighttime call count, nighttime visual encounter, and daytime netting. The detection nondetection data obtained was then modeled using site-occupancy models. The detection probability of amphibians sharply differed between species, the survey method used and the date of the survey. These three covariates also interacted. Thus, a minimum of three visits spread over the breeding season, using a combination of all three survey methods, is needed to reach a 95% detection level for all species in the Mediterranean region. Synthesis and applications: detection nondetection surveys combined to site occupancy modeling approach are powerful methods that can be used to estimate the detection probability and to determine the prospecting effort necessary to assert that a species is absent from a site.

Estimation of occupancy, breeding success, and predicted abundance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Kolar, Patrick S.; Fuller, Mark R.; Hunt, W. Grainger; Hunt, Teresa

2015-01-01

We used a multistate occupancy sampling design to estimate occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of territorial pairs of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in the Diablo Range, California, in 2014. This method uses the spatial pattern of detections and non-detections over repeated visits to survey sites to estimate probabilities of occupancy and successful reproduction while accounting for imperfect detection of golden eagles and their young during surveys. The estimated probability of detecting territorial pairs of golden eagles and their young was less than 1 and varied with time of the breeding season, as did the probability of correctly classifying a pair’s breeding status. Imperfect detection and breeding classification led to a sizeable difference between the uncorrected, naïve estimate of the proportion of occupied sites where successful reproduction was observed (0.20) and the model-based estimate (0.30). The analysis further indicated a relatively high overall probability of landscape occupancy by pairs of golden eagles (0.67, standard error = 0.06), but that areas with the greatest occupancy and reproductive potential were patchily distributed. We documented a total of 138 territorial pairs of golden eagles during surveys completed in the 2014 breeding season, which represented about one-half of the 280 pairs we estimated to occur in the broader 5,169-square kilometer region sampled. The study results emphasize the importance of accounting for imperfect detection and spatial heterogeneity in studies of site occupancy, breeding success, and abundance of golden eagles.

Best Practices in Using Large, Complex Samples: The Importance of Using Appropriate Weights and Design Effect Compensation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Osborne, Jason W.

2011-01-01

Large surveys often use probability sampling in order to obtain representative samples, and these data sets are valuable tools for researchers in all areas of science. Yet many researchers are not formally prepared to appropriately utilize these resources. Indeed, users of one popular dataset were generally found "not" to have modeled…

Assessing efficiency of spatial sampling using combined coverage analysis in geographical and feature spaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hengl, Tomislav

2015-04-01

Efficiency of spatial sampling largely determines success of model building. This is especially important for geostatistical mapping where an initial sampling plan should provide a good representation or coverage of both geographical (defined by the study area mask map) and feature space (defined by the multi-dimensional covariates). Otherwise the model will need to extrapolate and, hence, the overall uncertainty of the predictions will be high. In many cases, geostatisticians use point data sets which are produced using unknown or inconsistent sampling algorithms. Many point data sets in environmental sciences suffer from spatial clustering and systematic omission of feature space. But how to quantify these 'representation' problems and how to incorporate this knowledge into model building? The author has developed a generic function called 'spsample.prob' (Global Soil Information Facilities package for R) and which simultaneously determines (effective) inclusion probabilities as an average between the kernel density estimation (geographical spreading of points; analysed using the spatstat package in R) and MaxEnt analysis (feature space spreading of points; analysed using the MaxEnt software used primarily for species distribution modelling). The output 'iprob' map indicates whether the sampling plan has systematically missed some important locations and/or features, and can also be used as an input for geostatistical modelling e.g. as a weight map for geostatistical model fitting. The spsample.prob function can also be used in combination with the accessibility analysis (cost of field survey are usually function of distance from the road network, slope and land cover) to allow for simultaneous maximization of average inclusion probabilities and minimization of total survey costs. The author postulates that, by estimating effective inclusion probabilities using combined geographical and feature space analysis, and by comparing survey costs to representation efficiency, an optimal initial sampling plan can be produced which satisfies both criteria: (a) good representation (i.e. within a tolerance threshold), and (b) minimized survey costs. This sampling analysis framework could become especially interesting for generating sampling plans in new areas e.g. for which no previous spatial prediction model exists. The presentation includes data processing demos with standard soil sampling data sets Ebergotzen (Germany) and Edgeroi (Australia), also available via the GSIF package.

Reasons for nonresponse in a web-based survey of alcohol involvement among first-year college students.

PubMed

Cranford, James A; McCabe, Sean Esteban; Boyd, Carol J; Slayden, Janie; Reed, Mark B; Ketchie, Julie M; Lange, James E; Scott, Marcia S

2008-01-01

This study conducted a follow-up telephone survey of a probability sample of college students who did not respond to a Web survey to determine correlates of and reasons for nonresponse. A stratified random sample of 2502 full-time first-year undergraduate students was invited to participate in a Web-based survey. A random sample of 221 students who did not respond to the original Web survey completed an abbreviated version of the original survey by telephone. Nonresponse did not vary by gender, but nonresponse was higher among Blacks and Hispanics compared to Whites, and Blacks compared to Asians. Nonresponders reported lower frequency of past 28 days drinking, lower levels of past-year and past 28-days heavy episodic drinking, and more time spent preparing for classes than responders. The most common reasons for nonresponse were "too busy" (45.7%), "not interested" (18.1%), and "forgot to complete survey" (18.1%). Reasons for nonresponse to Web surveys among college students are similar to reasons for nonresponse to mail and telephone surveys, and some nonresponse reasons vary as a function of alcohol involvement.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms.

PubMed

de Souza, Lesley S; Godwin, James C; Renshaw, Mark A; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs.

Environmental DNA (eDNA) Detection Probability Is Influenced by Seasonal Activity of Organisms

PubMed Central

de Souza, Lesley S.; Godwin, James C.; Renshaw, Mark A.; Larson, Eric

2016-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) holds great promise for conservation applications like the monitoring of invasive or imperiled species, yet this emerging technique requires ongoing testing in order to determine the contexts over which it is effective. For example, little research to date has evaluated how seasonality of organism behavior or activity may influence detection probability of eDNA. We applied eDNA to survey for two highly imperiled species endemic to the upper Black Warrior River basin in Alabama, US: the Black Warrior Waterdog (Necturus alabamensis) and the Flattened Musk Turtle (Sternotherus depressus). Importantly, these species have contrasting patterns of seasonal activity, with N. alabamensis more active in the cool season (October-April) and S. depressus more active in the warm season (May-September). We surveyed sites historically occupied by these species across cool and warm seasons over two years with replicated eDNA water samples, which were analyzed in the laboratory using species-specific quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays. We then used occupancy estimation with detection probability modeling to evaluate both the effects of landscape attributes on organism presence and season of sampling on detection probability of eDNA. Importantly, we found that season strongly affected eDNA detection probability for both species, with N. alabamensis having higher eDNA detection probabilities during the cool season and S. depressus have higher eDNA detection probabilities during the warm season. These results illustrate the influence of organismal behavior or activity on eDNA detection in the environment and identify an important role for basic natural history in designing eDNA monitoring programs. PMID:27776150

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, Timothy; Lanfear, K.J.

1982-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method of route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occured), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

The oilspill risk analysis model of the U. S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, R.A.; Slack, J.R.; Wyant, T.; Lanfear, K.J.

1980-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey has developed an oilspill risk analysis model to aid in estimating the environmental hazards of developing oil resources in Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lease areas. The large, computerized model analyzes the probability of spill occurrence, as well as the likely paths or trajectories of spills in relation to the locations of recreational and biological resources which may be vulnerable. The analytical methodology can easily incorporate estimates of weathering rates , slick dispersion, and possible mitigating effects of cleanup. The probability of spill occurrence is estimated from information on the anticipated level of oil production and method and route of transport. Spill movement is modeled in Monte Carlo fashion with a sample of 500 spills per season, each transported by monthly surface current vectors and wind velocities sampled from 3-hour wind transition matrices. Transition matrices are based on historic wind records grouped in 41 wind velocity classes, and are constructed seasonally for up to six wind stations. Locations and monthly vulnerabilities of up to 31 categories of environmental resources are digitized within an 800,000 square kilometer study area. Model output includes tables of conditional impact probabilities (that is, the probability of hitting a target, given that a spill has occurred), as well as probability distributions for oilspills occurring and contacting environmental resources within preselected vulnerability time horizons. (USGS)

NHEXAS PHASE I MARYLAND STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is a federal interagency research effort coordinated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development (ORD). Phase I consists of demonstration/scoping studies using probability-based sampling ...

A hierarchical model combining distance sampling and time removal to estimate detection probability during avian point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amundson, Courtney L.; Royle, J. Andrew; Handel, Colleen M.

2014-01-01

Imperfect detection during animal surveys biases estimates of abundance and can lead to improper conclusions regarding distribution and population trends. Farnsworth et al. (2005) developed a combined distance-sampling and time-removal model for point-transect surveys that addresses both availability (the probability that an animal is available for detection; e.g., that a bird sings) and perceptibility (the probability that an observer detects an animal, given that it is available for detection). We developed a hierarchical extension of the combined model that provides an integrated analysis framework for a collection of survey points at which both distance from the observer and time of initial detection are recorded. Implemented in a Bayesian framework, this extension facilitates evaluating covariates on abundance and detection probability, incorporating excess zero counts (i.e. zero-inflation), accounting for spatial autocorrelation, and estimating population density. Species-specific characteristics, such as behavioral displays and territorial dispersion, may lead to different patterns of availability and perceptibility, which may, in turn, influence the performance of such hierarchical models. Therefore, we first test our proposed model using simulated data under different scenarios of availability and perceptibility. We then illustrate its performance with empirical point-transect data for a songbird that consistently produces loud, frequent, primarily auditory signals, the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla); and for 2 ptarmigan species (Lagopus spp.) that produce more intermittent, subtle, and primarily visual cues. Data were collected by multiple observers along point transects across a broad landscape in southwest Alaska, so we evaluated point-level covariates on perceptibility (observer and habitat), availability (date within season and time of day), and abundance (habitat, elevation, and slope), and included a nested point-within-transect and park-level effect. Our results suggest that this model can provide insight into the detection process during avian surveys and reduce bias in estimates of relative abundance but is best applied to surveys of species with greater availability (e.g., breeding songbirds).

BANYAN. V. A SYSTEMATIC ALL-SKY SURVEY FOR NEW VERY LATE-TYPE LOW-MASS STARS AND BROWN DWARFS IN NEARBY YOUNG MOVING GROUPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gagné, Jonathan; Lafrenière, David; Doyon, René

2015-01-10

We present the BANYAN All-Sky Survey (BASS) catalog, consisting of 228 new late-type (M4-L6) candidate members of nearby young moving groups (YMGs) with an expected false-positive rate of ∼13%. This sample includes 79 new candidate young brown dwarfs and 22 planetary-mass objects. These candidates were identified through the first systematic all-sky survey for late-type low-mass stars and brown dwarfs in YMGs. We cross-matched the Two Micron All Sky Survey and AllWISE catalogs outside of the galactic plane to build a sample of 98,970 potential ≥M5 dwarfs in the solar neighborhood and calculated their proper motions with typical precisions of 5-15more » mas yr{sup –1}. We selected highly probable candidate members of several YMGs from this sample using the Bayesian Analysis for Nearby Young AssociatioNs II tool (BANYAN II). We used the most probable statistical distances inferred from BANYAN II to estimate the spectral type and mass of these candidate YMG members. We used this unique sample to show tentative signs of mass segregation in the AB Doradus moving group and the Tucana-Horologium and Columba associations. The BASS sample has already been successful in identifying several new young brown dwarfs in earlier publications, and will be of great interest in studying the initial mass function of YMGs and for the search of exoplanets by direct imaging; the input sample of potential close-by ≥M5 dwarfs will be useful to study the kinematics of low-mass stars and brown dwarfs and search for new proper motion pairs.« less

USE OF NATURAL WATERS AS U. S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY REFERENCE SAMPLES.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janzer, Victor J.

1985-01-01

The U. S. Geological Survey conducts research and collects hydrologic data relating to the Nation's water resources. Seven types of natural matrix reference water samples are prepared for use in the Survey's quality assurance program. These include samples containing major constituents, trace metals, nutrients, herbicides, insecticides, trace metals in a water and suspended-sediment mixture, and precipitation (snowmelt). To prepare these reference samples, natural water is collected in plastic drums and the sediment is allowed to settle. The water is then filtered, selected constituents are added, and if necessary the water is acidified and sterilized by ultraviolet irradiation before bottling in plastic or glass. These reference samples are distributed twice yearly to more than 100 laboratories for chemical analysis. The most probable values for each constituent are determined by evaluating the data submitted by the laboratories using statistical techniques recommended by ASTM.

The Estimated Impact of Performing Arts on Adolescent Mood within a Community Sample of Mental Health Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Alan; Grieves, Julie; Opp, Dean

2007-01-01

In a brief survey, the authors solicited professional opinions regarding the probable impact of performing arts on adolescent mood stability using a hypothetical scenario where 20 moderately depressed 15-year-olds agreed to participate in a high school play, musical, or other singing performance. The results of the survey indicated that clinicians…

Faithful but Different: Clinical Social Workers Speak Out about Career Motivation and Professional Values

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradley, Carolyn; Maschi, Tina; O'Brien, Helen; Morgen, Keith; Ward, Kelly

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe licensed clinical social workers' (LCSWs) professional motivation to pursue a social work career and the decision to enter clinical practice. It used a probability sample of 245 New Jersey LCSWs and the Social Work Values Survey as part of an anonymous self-administered mail survey. Descriptive analyses…

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR)

PubMed Central

Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

2007-01-01

Background Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. Methods We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. Application We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. Conclusion This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy. PMID:17543100

Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR).

PubMed

Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

2007-06-01

Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be advantageous to choose clusters using reasoned hypotheses, based on both probability and geographical approaches, in contrast to a conventional, random cluster selection strategy.

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven-state survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven State survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

NHEXAS PHASE I REGION 5 STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The National Human Exposure Assessment Survey (NHEXAS) is a federal interagency research effort coordinated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Office of Research and Development (ORD). Phase I consists of demonstration/scoping studies using probability-based sampling d...

Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans.

PubMed

Okland, Bjørn; Skarpaas, Olav; Schroeder, Martin; Magnusson, Christer; Lindelöw, Ake; Thunes, Karl

2010-09-01

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Social surveys in HIV/AIDS: telling or writing? A comparison of interview and postal methods.

PubMed

McEwan, R T; Harrington, B E; Bhopal, R S; Madhok, R; McCallum, A

1992-06-01

We compare a probability sample postal questionnaire survey and a quota controlled interview survey, and review the literature on these subjects. In contrast to other studies, where quota samples were not representative because of biased selection of respondents by interviewers, our quota sample was representative. Response rates were similar in our postal and interview surveys (74 and 77%, respectively), although many previous similar postal surveys had poor response rates. As in other comparison studies, costs were higher in our interview survey, substantive responses and the quality of responses to closed-ended questions were similar, and responses to open-ended questions were better in the interview survey. 'Socially unacceptable' responses on sexual behaviour were less likely in interviews. Quota controlled surveys are appropriate in surveys on HIV/AIDS under certain circumstances, e.g. where the population parameters are well known, and where interviewers can gain access to the entire population. Postal questionnaires are better for obtaining information on sexual behaviour, if adequate steps are taken to improve response rates, and when in-depth answers are not needed. For most surveys in the HIV/AIDS field we recommend the postal method.

Childhood Trauma and Psychiatric Disorders as Correlates of School Dropout in a National Sample of Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porche, Michelle V.; Fortuna, Lisa R.; Lin, Julia; Alegria, Margarita

2011-01-01

The effect of childhood trauma, psychiatric diagnoses, and mental health services on school dropout among U.S.-born and immigrant youth is examined using data from the Collaborative Psychiatric Epidemiology Surveys, a nationally representative probability sample of African Americans, Afro-Caribbeans, Asians, Latinos, and non-Latino Whites,…

Influences of Availability on Parameter Estimates from Site Occupancy Models with Application to Submersed Aquatic Vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, Brian R.; Holland, Mark D.; Yi, Feng; Starcevich, Leigh Ann Harrod

2013-01-01

Site occupancy models are commonly used by ecologists to estimate the probabilities of species site occupancy and of species detection. This study addresses the influence on site occupancy and detection estimates of variation in species availability among surveys within sites. Such variation in availability may result from temporary emigration, nonavailability of the species for detection, and sampling sites spatially when species presence is not uniform within sites. We demonstrate, using Monte Carlo simulations and aquatic vegetation data, that variation in availability and heterogeneity in the probability of availability may yield biases in the expected values of the site occupancy and detection estimates that have traditionally been associated with low-detection probabilities and heterogeneity in those probabilities. These findings confirm that the effects of availability may be important for ecologists and managers, and that where such effects are expected, modification of sampling designs and/or analytical methods should be considered. Failure to limit the effects of availability may preclude reliable estimation of the probability of site occupancy.

Sampling design trade-offs in occupancy studies with imperfect detection: examples and software

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bailey, L.L.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

2007-01-01

Researchers have used occupancy, or probability of occupancy, as a response or state variable in a variety of studies (e.g., habitat modeling), and occupancy is increasingly favored by numerous state, federal, and international agencies engaged in monitoring programs. Recent advances in estimation methods have emphasized that reliable inferences can be made from these types of studies if detection and occupancy probabilities are simultaneously estimated. The need for temporal replication at sampled sites to estimate detection probability creates a trade-off between spatial replication (number of sample sites distributed within the area of interest/inference) and temporal replication (number of repeated surveys at each site). Here, we discuss a suite of questions commonly encountered during the design phase of occupancy studies, and we describe software (program GENPRES) developed to allow investigators to easily explore design trade-offs focused on particularities of their study system and sampling limitations. We illustrate the utility of program GENPRES using an amphibian example from Greater Yellowstone National Park, USA.

Statistical Algorithms for Designing Geophysical Surveys to Detect UXO Target Areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Robert F.; Carlson, Deborah K.; Gilbert, Richard O.

2005-07-29

The U.S. Department of Defense is in the process of assessing and remediating closed, transferred, and transferring military training ranges across the United States. Many of these sites have areas that are known to contain unexploded ordnance (UXO). Other sites or portions of sites are not expected to contain UXO, but some verification of this expectation using geophysical surveys is needed. Many sites are so large that it is often impractical and/or cost prohibitive to perform surveys over 100% of the site. In that case, it is particularly important to be explicit about the performance required of the survey. Thismore » article presents the statistical algorithms developed to support the design of geophysical surveys along transects (swaths) to find target areas (TAs) of anomalous geophysical readings that may indicate the presence of UXO. The algorithms described here determine 1) the spacing between transects that should be used for the surveys to achieve a specified probability of traversing the TA, 2) the probability of both traversing and detecting a TA of anomalous geophysical readings when the spatial density of anomalies within the TA is either uniform (unchanging over space) or has a bivariate normal distribution, and 3) the probability that a TA exists when it was not found by surveying along transects. These algorithms have been implemented in the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) software to develop cost-effective transect survey designs that meet performance objectives.« less

Statistical Algorithms for Designing Geophysical Surveys to Detect UXO Target Areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Brien, Robert F.; Carlson, Deborah K.; Gilbert, Richard O.

2005-07-28

The U.S. Department of Defense is in the process of assessing and remediating closed, transferred, and transferring military training ranges across the United States. Many of these sites have areas that are known to contain unexploded ordnance (UXO). Other sites or portions of sites are not expected to contain UXO, but some verification of this expectation using geophysical surveys is needed. Many sites are so large that it is often impractical and/or cost prohibitive to perform surveys over 100% of the site. In such cases, it is particularly important to be explicit about the performance required of the surveys. Thismore » article presents the statistical algorithms developed to support the design of geophysical surveys along transects (swaths) to find target areas (TAs) of anomalous geophysical readings that may indicate the presence of UXO. The algorithms described here determine (1) the spacing between transects that should be used for the surveys to achieve a specified probability of traversing the TA, (2) the probability of both traversing and detecting a TA of anomalous geophysical readings when the spatial density of anomalies within the TA is either uniform (unchanging over space) or has a bivariate normal distribution, and (3) the probability that a TA exists when it was not found by surveying along transects. These algorithms have been implemented in the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) software to develop cost-effective transect survey designs that meet performance objectives.« less

Sampling the stream landscape: Improving the applicability of an ecoregion-level capture probability model for stream fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollenhauer, Robert; Mouser, Joshua B.; Brewer, Shannon K.

2018-01-01

Temporal and spatial variability in streams result in heterogeneous gear capture probability (i.e., the proportion of available individuals identified) that confounds interpretation of data used to monitor fish abundance. We modeled tow-barge electrofishing capture probability at multiple spatial scales for nine Ozark Highland stream fishes. In addition to fish size, we identified seven reach-scale environmental characteristics associated with variable capture probability: stream discharge, water depth, conductivity, water clarity, emergent vegetation, wetted width–depth ratio, and proportion of riffle habitat. The magnitude of the relationship between capture probability and both discharge and depth varied among stream fishes. We also identified lithological characteristics among stream segments as a coarse-scale source of variable capture probability. The resulting capture probability model can be used to adjust catch data and derive reach-scale absolute abundance estimates across a wide range of sampling conditions with similar effort as used in more traditional fisheries surveys (i.e., catch per unit effort). Adjusting catch data based on variable capture probability improves the comparability of data sets, thus promoting both well-informed conservation and management decisions and advances in stream-fish ecology.

Navigating complex sample analysis using national survey data.

PubMed

Saylor, Jennifer; Friedmann, Erika; Lee, Hyeon Joo

2012-01-01

The National Center for Health Statistics conducts the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and other national surveys with probability-based complex sample designs. Goals of national surveys are to provide valid data for the population of the United States. Analyses of data from population surveys present unique challenges in the research process but are valuable avenues to study the health of the United States population. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the importance of using complex data analysis techniques for data obtained with complex multistage sampling design and provide an example of analysis using the SPSS Complex Samples procedure. Illustration of challenges and solutions specific to secondary data analysis of national databases are described using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey as the exemplar. Oversampling of small or sensitive groups provides necessary estimates of variability within small groups. Use of weights without complex samples accurately estimates population means and frequency from the sample after accounting for over- or undersampling of specific groups. Weighting alone leads to inappropriate population estimates of variability, because they are computed as if the measures were from the entire population rather than a sample in the data set. The SPSS Complex Samples procedure allows inclusion of all sampling design elements, stratification, clusters, and weights. Use of national data sets allows use of extensive, expensive, and well-documented survey data for exploratory questions but limits analysis to those variables included in the data set. The large sample permits examination of multiple predictors and interactive relationships. Merging data files, availability of data in several waves of surveys, and complex sampling are techniques used to provide a representative sample but present unique challenges. In sophisticated data analysis techniques, use of these data is optimized.

Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections.

PubMed

Fisher, Jason T; Heim, Nicole; Code, Sandra; Paczkowski, John

2016-01-01

Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT). Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears' range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error-arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample-has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012) and 76 (2013) sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation-which form the crux of management plans-require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species management and conservation actions are based.

Developing Gyrfalcon surveys and monitoring for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fuller, Mark R.; Schempf, Philip F.; Booms, Travis L.

2011-01-01

We developed methods to monitor the status of Gyrfalcons in Alaska. Results of surveys and monitoring will be informative for resource managers and will be useful for studying potential changes in ecological communities of the high latitudes. We estimated that the probability of detecting a Gyrfalcon at an occupied nest site was between 64% and 87% depending on observer experience and aircraft type (fixed-wing or helicopter). The probability of detection is an important factor for estimating occupancy of nesting areas, and occupancy can be used as a metric for monitoring species' status. We conclude that surveys of nesting habitat to monitor occupancy during the breeding season are practical because of the high probability of seeing a Gyrfalcon from aircraft. Aerial surveys are effective for searching sample plots or index areas in the expanse of the Alaskan terrain. Furthermore, several species of cliff-nesting birds can be surveyed concurrently from aircraft. Occupancy estimation also can be applied using data from other field search methods (e.g., from boats) that have proven useful in Alaska. We believe a coordinated broad-scale, inter-agency, collaborative approach is necessary in Alaska. Monitoring can be facilitated by collating and archiving each set of results in a secure universal repository to allow for statewide meta-analysis.

Prevalence of Obesity Among Adults and Youth: United States, 2011-2014

MedlinePlus

... sample is selected through a complex, multistage probability design. In 2011–2012 and 2013–2014, non-Hispanic ... All variance estimates accounted for the complex survey design by using Taylor series linearization. Pregnant females were ...

Reconnaissance geochemical survey of the Farah Garan-Kutam mineral belt, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samater, R.M.; Johnson, P.R.; Bookstrom, A.A.

1991-01-01

In the present survey, geochemical anomalies locate all the sites of mineralization known from previous work. The survey is therefore technically a success. However, a large number of these anomalies probably result from contamination of the wadi systems by metal dispersed from ancient mine workings, and this particular survey, overall, may be of limited value as a guide to the discovery of hitherto unknown mineralization. Nevertheless, the survey outlines two areas that may mark extensions to known mineralization, and a number of other areas in which no mineralization is known. Based on a consideration of the character of the bedrock geology, the value of each reported analytical result in relation to the respective element thresholds, and the number of anomalous samples that cluster in any given area, four areas are recommended for high-priority follow-up sampling.

Evaluation of radio-tracking and strip transect methods for determining foraging ranges of Black-Legged Kittiwakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostrand, William D.; Drew, G.S.; Suryan, R.M.; McDonald, L.L.

1998-01-01

We compared strip transect and radio-tracking methods of determining foraging range of Black-legged Kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). The mean distance birds were observed from their colony determined by radio-tracking was significantly greater than the mean value calculated from strip transects. We determined that this difference was due to two sources of bias: (1) as distance from the colony increased, the area of available habitat also increased resulting in decreasing bird densities (bird spreading). Consequently, the probability of detecting birds during transect surveys also would decrease as distance from the colony increased, and (2) the maximum distance birds were observed from the colony during radio-tracking exceeded the extent of the strip transect survey. We compared the observed number of birds seen on the strip transect survey to the predictions of a model of the decreasing probability of detection due to bird spreading. Strip transect data were significantly different from modeled data; however, the field data were consistently equal to or below the model predictions, indicating a general conformity to the concept of declining detection at increasing distance. We conclude that radio-tracking data gave a more representative indication of foraging distances than did strip transect sampling. Previous studies of seabirds that have used strip transect sampling without accounting for bird spreading or the effects of study-area limitations probably underestimated foraging range.

Results of the U. S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in April 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodworth, M.T.; Connor, B.F.

2001-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-165 (trace constituents), M-158 (major constituents), N-69 (nutrient constituents), N-70 (nutrient constituents), P-36 (low ionic-strength constituents), and Hg-32 (mercury) -- that were distributed in April 2001 to laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 73 laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U. S. Geological Survey's Analytical Evaluation Program for Standard Reference Samples Distributed in March 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodworth, M.T.; Conner, B.F.

2002-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T- 169 (trace constituents), M- 162 (major constituents), N-73 (nutrient constituents), N-74 (nutrient constituents), P-38 (low ionic-strength constituents), and Hg-34 (mercury) -- that were distributed in March 2002 to laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored intedaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 93 laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in September 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodworth, Mark T.; Connor, Brooke F.

2003-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-171 (trace constituents), M-164 (major constituents), N-75 (nutrient constituents), N-76 (nutrient constituents), P-39 (low ionic-strength constituents), and Hg-35 (mercury) -- that were distributed in September 2002 to laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 102 laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in September 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodworth, Mark T.; Connor, Brooke F.

2002-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-167 (trace constituents), M-160 (major constituents), N-71 (nutrient constituents), N-72 (nutrient constituents), P-37 (low ionic-strength constituents), and Hg-33 (mercury) -- that were distributed in September 2001 to laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 98 laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's Analytical Evaluation Program for Standard Reference Samples Distributed in March 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrar, Jerry W.; Copen, Ashley M.

2000-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-161 (trace constituents), M-154 (major constituents), N-65 (nutrient constituents), N-66 nutrient constituents), P-34 (low ionic strength constituents), and Hg-30 (mercury) -- that were distributed in March 2000 to 144 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 132 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in October 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrar, T.W.

2000-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-159 (trace constituents), M-152 (major constituents), N-63 (nutrient constituents), N-64 (nutrient constituents), P-33 (low ionic strength constituents), and Hg-29 (mercury) -- that were distributed in October 1999 to 149 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 131 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in March 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodworth, Mark T.; Connor, Brooke F.

2003-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-173 (trace constituents), M-166 (major constituents), N-77 (nutrient constituents), N-78 (nutrient constituents), P-40 (low ionic-strength constituents), and Hg-36 (mercury) -- that were distributed in March 2003 to laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 110 laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U. S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in October 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connor, B.F.; Currier, J.P.; Woodworth, M.T.

2001-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-163 (trace constituents), M-156 (major constituents), N-67 (nutrient constituents), N-68 (nutrient constituents), P-35 (low ionic strength constituents), and Hg-31 (mercury) -- that were distributed in October 2000 to 126 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 122 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Searching for chemical classes among metal-poor stars using medium-resolution spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, Monique A.; Cogo-Moreira, Hugo; Rossi, Silvia

2018-04-01

Astronomy is in the era of large spectroscopy surveys, with the spectra of hundreds of thousands of stars in the Galaxy being collected. Although most of these surveys have low or medium resolution, which makes precise abundance measurements not possible, there is still important information to be extracted from the available data. Our aim is to identify chemically distinct classes among metal-poor stars, observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, using line indices. The present work focused on carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars and their subclasses. We applied the latent profile analysis technique to line indices for carbon, barium, iron and europium, in order to separate the sample into classes with similar chemical signatures. This technique provides not only the number of possible groups but also the probability of each object to belong to each class. The method was able to distinguish at least two classes among the observed sample, with one of them being probable CEMP stars enriched in s-process elements. However, it was not able to separate CEMP-no stars from the rest of the sample. Latent profile analysis is a powerful model-based tool to be used in the identification of patterns in astrophysics. Our tests show the potential of the technique for the attainment of additional chemical information from `poor' data.

Recommended survey designs for occupancy modelling using motion-activated cameras: insights from empirical wildlife data

PubMed Central

Lewis, Jesse S.; Gerber, Brian D.

2014-01-01

Motion-activated cameras are a versatile tool that wildlife biologists can use for sampling wild animal populations to estimate species occurrence. Occupancy modelling provides a flexible framework for the analysis of these data; explicitly recognizing that given a species occupies an area the probability of detecting it is often less than one. Despite the number of studies using camera data in an occupancy framework, there is only limited guidance from the scientific literature about survey design trade-offs when using motion-activated cameras. A fuller understanding of these trade-offs will allow researchers to maximise available resources and determine whether the objectives of a monitoring program or research study are achievable. We use an empirical dataset collected from 40 cameras deployed across 160 km2 of the Western Slope of Colorado, USA to explore how survey effort (number of cameras deployed and the length of sampling period) affects the accuracy and precision (i.e., error) of the occupancy estimate for ten mammal and three virtual species. We do this using a simulation approach where species occupancy and detection parameters were informed by empirical data from motion-activated cameras. A total of 54 survey designs were considered by varying combinations of sites (10–120 cameras) and occasions (20–120 survey days). Our findings demonstrate that increasing total sampling effort generally decreases error associated with the occupancy estimate, but changing the number of sites or sampling duration can have very different results, depending on whether a species is spatially common or rare (occupancy = ψ) and easy or hard to detect when available (detection probability = p). For rare species with a low probability of detection (i.e., raccoon and spotted skunk) the required survey effort includes maximizing the number of sites and the number of survey days, often to a level that may be logistically unrealistic for many studies. For common species with low detection (i.e., bobcat and coyote) the most efficient sampling approach was to increase the number of occasions (survey days). However, for common species that are moderately detectable (i.e., cottontail rabbit and mule deer), occupancy could reliably be estimated with comparatively low numbers of cameras over a short sampling period. We provide general guidelines for reliably estimating occupancy across a range of terrestrial species (rare to common: ψ = 0.175–0.970, and low to moderate detectability: p = 0.003–0.200) using motion-activated cameras. Wildlife researchers/managers with limited knowledge of the relative abundance and likelihood of detection of a particular species can apply these guidelines regardless of location. We emphasize the importance of prior biological knowledge, defined objectives and detailed planning (e.g., simulating different study-design scenarios) for designing effective monitoring programs and research studies. PMID:25210658

Integrating biology, field logistics, and simulations to optimize parameter estimation for imperiled species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanier, Wendy E.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Muths, Erin L.

2016-01-01

Conservation of imperiled species often requires knowledge of vital rates and population dynamics. However, these can be difficult to estimate for rare species and small populations. This problem is further exacerbated when individuals are not available for detection during some surveys due to limited access, delaying surveys and creating mismatches between the breeding behavior and survey timing. Here we use simulations to explore the impacts of this issue using four hypothetical boreal toad (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) populations, representing combinations of logistical access (accessible, inaccessible) and breeding behavior (synchronous, asynchronous). We examine the bias and precision of survival and breeding probability estimates generated by survey designs that differ in effort and timing for these populations. Our findings indicate that the logistical access of a site and mismatch between the breeding behavior and survey design can greatly limit the ability to yield accurate and precise estimates of survival and breeding probabilities. Simulations similar to what we have performed can help researchers determine an optimal survey design(s) for their system before initiating sampling efforts.

The 6dFGS Peculiar Velocity Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springob, Chris M.; Magoulas, C.; Colless, M.; Mould, J.; Erdogdu, P.; Jones, D. H.; Lucey, J.; Campbell, L.; Merson, A.; Jarrett, T.

2012-01-01

The 6dF Galaxy Survey (6dFGS) is an all southern sky galaxy survey, including 125,000 redshifts and a Fundamental Plane (FP) subsample of 10,000 peculiar velocities, making it the largest peculiar velocity sample to date. We have fit the FP using a maximum likelihood fit to a tri-variate Gaussian. We subsequently compute a Bayesian probability distribution for every possible peculiar velocity for each of the 10,000 galaxies, derived from the tri-variate Gaussian probability density distribution, accounting for our selection effects and measurement errors. We construct a predicted peculiar velocity field from the 2MASS redshift survey, and compare our observed 6dFGS velocity field to the predicted field. We discuss the resulting agreement between the observed and predicted fields, and the implications for measurements of the bias parameter and bulk flow.

Sexual risk behaviours and sexual health outcomes among heterosexual black Caribbeans: comparing sexually transmitted infection clinic attendees and national probability survey respondents.

PubMed

Gerver, S M; Easterbrook, P J; Anderson, M; Solarin, I; Elam, G; Fenton, K A; Garnett, G; Mercer, C H

2011-02-01

We compared sociodemographic characteristics, sexual risk behaviours and sexual health experiences of 266 heterosexual black Caribbeans recruited at a London sexual health clinic between September 2005 and January 2006 with 402 heterosexual black Caribbeans interviewed for a British probability survey between May 1999 and August 2001. Male clinic attendees were more likely than men in the national survey to report: ≥10 sexual partners (lifetime; adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 3.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.66-6.42), ≥2 partners (last year; AOR: 5.40, 95% CI: 2.64-11.0), concurrent partnerships (AOR: 3.26, 95% CI: 1.61-6.60), sex with partner(s) from the Caribbean (last 5 years; AOR: 7.97, 95% CI: 2.42-26.2) and previous sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis/diagnoses (last 5 years; AOR: 16.2, 95% CI: 8.04-32.6). Similar patterns were observed for women clinic attendees, who also had increased odds of termination of pregnancy (AOR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.87-5.66). These results highlight the substantially higher levels of several high-risk sexual behaviours among UK black Caribbeans attending a sexual health clinic compared with those in the general population. High-risk individuals are under-represented in probability samples, and it is therefore important that convenience samples of high-risk individuals are performed in conjunction with nationally representative surveys to fully understand the risk behaviours and sexual health-care needs of ethnic minority communities.

The Effects of Pubertal Timing on Body Image, School Behavior, and Deviance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duncan, Paula Duke; And Others

1985-01-01

Data from the National Health Examination Survey, a national probability sample of children and youth aged 12-17, was used to investigate the relationships between maturational timing and body image, school behavior, and deviance. (Author/LMO)

A Study of the Characteristics, Costs, and Magnitude of Interlibrary Loans in Academic Libraries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Palmour, Vernon E., Comp.; And Others

A national probability sample was made to survey the costs, the characteristics of materials loaned and borrowed, and the present and future magnitude of interlibrary loans for academic libraries. From a sample of 80 libraries it was found that the cost of a filled loan request varied between two and seven dollars and that lending cost per…

Generating Continuous Surface Probability Maps from Airborne Video Using Two Sampling Intensities Along the Video Transect

Treesearch

Dennis M. Jacobs; William H. Cooke

2000-01-01

Airborne videography can be an effective tool for assessing the effects of catastrophic events on forest conditions. However, there is some question about the appropriate sampling intensity to use, especially when trying to develop correlations with probabilistic data sets such as are assembled through the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) surveys. We used airborne...

Incidence Rates of Sexual Harassment in Mass Communications Internship Programs: An Initial Study Comparing Intern, Student, and Professional Rates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bowen, Michelle; Laurion, Suzanne

A study documented, using a telephone survey, the incidence rates of sexual harassment of mass communication interns, and compared those rates to student and professional rates. A probability sample of 44 male and 52 female mass communications professionals was generated using several random sampling techniques from among professionals who work in…

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap.

PubMed

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R; Raghunathan, Trivellore E

2016-06-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in "Delta-V," a key crash severity measure.

Multiple Imputation in Two-Stage Cluster Samples Using The Weighted Finite Population Bayesian Bootstrap

PubMed Central

Zhou, Hanzhi; Elliott, Michael R.; Raghunathan, Trivellore E.

2017-01-01

Multistage sampling is often employed in survey samples for cost and convenience. However, accounting for clustering features when generating datasets for multiple imputation is a nontrivial task, particularly when, as is often the case, cluster sampling is accompanied by unequal probabilities of selection, necessitating case weights. Thus, multiple imputation often ignores complex sample designs and assumes simple random sampling when generating imputations, even though failing to account for complex sample design features is known to yield biased estimates and confidence intervals that have incorrect nominal coverage. In this article, we extend a recently developed, weighted, finite-population Bayesian bootstrap procedure to generate synthetic populations conditional on complex sample design data that can be treated as simple random samples at the imputation stage, obviating the need to directly model design features for imputation. We develop two forms of this method: one where the probabilities of selection are known at the first and second stages of the design, and the other, more common in public use files, where only the final weight based on the product of the two probabilities is known. We show that this method has advantages in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage properties over methods where sample designs are ignored, with little loss in efficiency, even when compared with correct fully parametric models. An application is made using the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System, a multistage, unequal probability sample of U.S. passenger vehicle crashes, which suffers from a substantial amount of missing data in “Delta-V,” a key crash severity measure. PMID:29226161

Combining Breeding Bird Survey and distance sampling to estimate density of migrant and breeding birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Somershoe, S.G.; Twedt, D.J.; Reid, B.

2006-01-01

We combined Breeding Bird Survey point count protocol and distance sampling to survey spring migrant and breeding birds in Vicksburg National Military Park on 33 days between March and June of 2003 and 2004. For 26 of 106 detected species, we used program DISTANCE to estimate detection probabilities and densities from 660 3-min point counts in which detections were recorded within four distance annuli. For most species, estimates of detection probability, and thereby density estimates, were improved through incorporation of the proportion of forest cover at point count locations as a covariate. Our results suggest Breeding Bird Surveys would benefit from the use of distance sampling and a quantitative characterization of habitat at point count locations. During spring migration, we estimated that the most common migrant species accounted for a population of 5000-9000 birds in Vicksburg National Military Park (636 ha). Species with average populations of 300 individuals during migration were: Blue-gray Gnatcatcher (Polioptila caerulea), Cedar Waxwing (Bombycilla cedrorum), White-eyed Vireo (Vireo griseus), Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea), and Ruby-crowned Kinglet (Regulus calendula). Of 56 species that bred in Vicksburg National Military Park, we estimated that the most common 18 species accounted for 8150 individuals. The six most abundant breeding species, Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, White-eyed Vireo, Summer Tanager (Piranga rubra), Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), and Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), accounted for 5800 individuals.

On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.

2007-01-01

In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

An empirical probability model of detecting species at low densities.

PubMed

Delaney, David G; Leung, Brian

2010-06-01

False negatives, not detecting things that are actually present, are an important but understudied problem. False negatives are the result of our inability to perfectly detect species, especially those at low density such as endangered species or newly arriving introduced species. They reduce our ability to interpret presence-absence survey data and make sound management decisions (e.g., rapid response). To reduce the probability of false negatives, we need to compare the efficacy and sensitivity of different sampling approaches and quantify an unbiased estimate of the probability of detection. We conducted field experiments in the intertidal zone of New England and New York to test the sensitivity of two sampling approaches (quadrat vs. total area search, TAS), given different target characteristics (mobile vs. sessile). Using logistic regression we built detection curves for each sampling approach that related the sampling intensity and the density of targets to the probability of detection. The TAS approach reduced the probability of false negatives and detected targets faster than the quadrat approach. Mobility of targets increased the time to detection but did not affect detection success. Finally, we interpreted two years of presence-absence data on the distribution of the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) in New England and New York, using our probability model for false negatives. The type of experimental approach in this paper can help to reduce false negatives and increase our ability to detect species at low densities by refining sampling approaches, which can guide conservation strategies and management decisions in various areas of ecology such as conservation biology and invasion ecology.

Estimating occupancy and abundance using aerial images with imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Womble, Jamie N.; Bower, Michael R.

2017-01-01

Species distribution and abundance are critical population characteristics for efficient management, conservation, and ecological insight. Point process models are a powerful tool for modelling distribution and abundance, and can incorporate many data types, including count data, presence-absence data, and presence-only data. Aerial photographic images are a natural tool for collecting data to fit point process models, but aerial images do not always capture all animals that are present at a site. Methods for estimating detection probability for aerial surveys usually include collecting auxiliary data to estimate the proportion of time animals are available to be detected.We developed an approach for fitting point process models using an N-mixture model framework to estimate detection probability for aerial occupancy and abundance surveys. Our method uses multiple aerial images taken of animals at the same spatial location to provide temporal replication of sample sites. The intersection of the images provide multiple counts of individuals at different times. We examined this approach using both simulated and real data of sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) in Glacier Bay National Park, southeastern Alaska.Using our proposed methods, we estimated detection probability of sea otters to be 0.76, the same as visual aerial surveys that have been used in the past. Further, simulations demonstrated that our approach is a promising tool for estimating occupancy, abundance, and detection probability from aerial photographic surveys.Our methods can be readily extended to data collected using unmanned aerial vehicles, as technology and regulations permit. The generality of our methods for other aerial surveys depends on how well surveys can be designed to meet the assumptions of N-mixture models.

Semantic Importance Sampling for Statistical Model Checking

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-16

SMT calls while maintaining correctness. Finally, we implement SIS in a tool called osmosis and use it to verify a number of stochastic systems with...2 surveys related work. Section 3 presents background definitions and concepts. Section 4 presents SIS, and Section 5 presents our tool osmosis . In...which I∗M|=Φ(x) = 1. We do this by first randomly selecting a cube c from C∗ with uniform probability since each cube has equal probability 9 5. OSMOSIS

Evaluating a Modular Design Approach to Collecting Survey Data Using Text Messages

PubMed Central

West, Brady T.; Ghimire, Dirgha; Axinn, William G.

2015-01-01

This article presents analyses of data from a pilot study in Nepal that was designed to provide an initial examination of the errors and costs associated with an innovative methodology for survey data collection. We embedded a randomized experiment within a long-standing panel survey, collecting data on a small number of items with varying sensitivity from a probability sample of 450 young Nepalese adults. Survey items ranged from simple demographics to indicators of substance abuse and mental health problems. Sampled adults were randomly assigned to one of three different modes of data collection: 1) a standard one-time telephone interview, 2) a “single sitting” back-and-forth interview with an interviewer using text messaging, and 3) an interview using text messages within a modular design framework (which generally involves breaking the survey response task into distinct parts over a short period of time). Respondents in the modular group were asked to respond (via text message exchanges with an interviewer) to only one question on a given day, rather than complete the entire survey. Both bivariate and multivariate analyses demonstrate that the two text messaging modes increased the probability of disclosing sensitive information relative to the telephone mode, and that respondents in the modular design group, while responding less frequently, found the survey to be significantly easier. Further, those who responded in the modular group were not unique in terms of available covariates, suggesting that the reduced item response rates only introduced limited nonresponse bias. Future research should consider enhancing this methodology, applying it with other modes of data collection (e. g., web surveys), and continuously evaluating its effectiveness from a total survey error perspective. PMID:26322137

A country-wide probability sample of public attitudes toward stuttering in Portugal.

PubMed

Valente, Ana Rita S; St Louis, Kenneth O; Leahy, Margaret; Hall, Andreia; Jesus, Luis M T

2017-06-01

Negative public attitudes toward stuttering have been widely reported, although differences among countries and regions exist. Clear reasons for these differences remain obscure. Published research is unavailable on public attitudes toward stuttering in Portugal as well as a representative sample that explores stuttering attitudes in an entire country. This study sought to (a) determine the feasibility of a country-wide probability sampling scheme to measure public stuttering attitudes in Portugal using a standard instrument (the Public Opinion Survey of Human Attributes-Stuttering [POSHA-S]) and (b) identify demographic variables that predict Portuguese attitudes. The POSHA-S was translated to European Portuguese through a five-step process. Thereafter, a local administrative office-based, three-stage, cluster, probability sampling scheme was carried out to obtain 311 adult respondents who filled out the questionnaire. The Portuguese population held stuttering attitudes that were generally within the average range of those observed from numerous previous POSHA-S samples. Demographic variables that predicted more versus less positive stuttering attitudes were respondents' age, region of the country, years of school completed, working situation, and number of languages spoken. Non-predicting variables were respondents' sex, marital status, and parental status. A local administrative office-based, probability sampling scheme generated a respondent profile similar to census data and indicated that Portuguese attitudes are generally typical. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiorespiratory Fitness Levels among U.S. Youth Aged 12-15 Years: United States, 1999-2004 and 2012

MedlinePlus

... use a complex, stratified, multistage probability cluster sampling design. NHANES data collection is based on a nationally ... conjunction with the 2012 NHANES and the survey design was based on the design for NHANES, with ...

Dietary Supplement Use Among U.S. Adults Has Increased Since NHANES III (1988-1994)

MedlinePlus

... uses a complex, stratified, multistage probability cluster sampling design and oversamples in order to increase precision in estimates for certain groups. NHANES III was one in a series of periodic surveys conducted in two cycles during ...

Designing occupancy studies: general advice and allocating survey effort

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKenzie, D.I.; Royle, J. Andrew

2005-01-01

1. The fraction of sampling units in a landscape where a target species is present (occupancy) is an extensively used concept in ecology. Yet in many applications the species will not always be detected in a sampling unit even when present, resulting in biased estimates of occupancy. Given that sampling units are surveyed repeatedly within a relatively short timeframe, a number of similar methods have now been developed to provide unbiased occupancy estimates. However, practical guidance on the efficient design of occupancy studies has been lacking. 2. In this paper we comment on a number of general issues related to designing occupancy studies, including the need for clear objectives that are explicitly linked to science or management, selection of sampling units, timing of repeat surveys and allocation of survey effort. Advice on the number of repeat surveys per sampling unit is considered in terms of the variance of the occupancy estimator, for three possible study designs. 3. We recommend that sampling units should be surveyed a minimum of three times when detection probability is high (> 0.5 survey-1), unless a removal design is used. 4. We found that an optimal removal design will generally be the most efficient, but we suggest it may be less robust to assumption violations than a standard design. 5. Our results suggest that for a rare species it is more efficient to survey more sampling units less intensively, while for a common species fewer sampling units should be surveyed more intensively. 6. Synthesis and applications. Reliable inferences can only result from quality data. To make the best use of logistical resources, study objectives must be clearly defined; sampling units must be selected, and repeated surveys timed appropriately; and a sufficient number of repeated surveys must be conducted. Failure to do so may compromise the integrity of the study. The guidance given here on study design issues is particularly applicable to studies of species occurrence and distribution, habitat selection and modelling, metapopulation studies and monitoring programmes.

Estimating trace-suspect match probabilities for singleton Y-STR haplotypes using coalescent theory.

PubMed

Andersen, Mikkel Meyer; Caliebe, Amke; Jochens, Arne; Willuweit, Sascha; Krawczak, Michael

2013-02-01

Estimation of match probabilities for singleton haplotypes of lineage markers, i.e. for haplotypes observed only once in a reference database augmented by a suspect profile, is an important problem in forensic genetics. We compared the performance of four estimators of singleton match probabilities for Y-STRs, namely the count estimate, both with and without Brenner's so-called 'kappa correction', the surveying estimate, and a previously proposed, but rarely used, coalescent-based approach implemented in the BATWING software. Extensive simulation with BATWING of the underlying population history, haplotype evolution and subsequent database sampling revealed that the coalescent-based approach is characterized by lower bias and lower mean squared error than the uncorrected count estimator and the surveying estimator. Moreover, in contrast to the two count estimators, both the surveying and the coalescent-based approach exhibited a good correlation between the estimated and true match probabilities. However, although its overall performance is thus better than that of any other recognized method, the coalescent-based estimator is still computation-intense on the verge of general impracticability. Its application in forensic practice therefore will have to be limited to small reference databases, or to isolated cases of particular interest, until more powerful algorithms for coalescent simulation have become available. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sampling model of government travel vouchers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, P.S.; Wright, T.

1987-02-01

A pilot survey was designed and executed to better understand the structure of the universe of all government travel vouchers. Thirteen civilian and military sites were selected for the pilot survey. A total of 3916 travel vouchers with attached tickets were sampled. During the course of the pilot survey, it was felt that the compounding problems of the relative rarity of the expired, unused tickets and the enormously huge universe were too much of an obstacle to overcome in sampling the entire universe (including the US Air Force, US Army, US Navy, US Marines, other Department of Defense offices, andmore » civil) in the first year. The universe was then narrowed to the US Air Force, and US Army which have to two largest government travel expenditures. Based on the results of the pilot survey, ORNL recommends a stratified two-stage cluster sampling model. With probability of 0.90, a sample of size 78 (sites) will be needed to estimate the amounts per airline which will not be more than $50,000 from the true values. This sampling model allows one to estimate the total dollar amounts of expired, unused tickets for individual airlines.« less

Cytologic diagnosis: expression of probability by clinical pathologists.

PubMed

Christopher, Mary M; Hotz, Christine S

2004-01-01

Clinical pathologists use descriptive terms or modifiers to express the probability or likelihood of a cytologic diagnosis. Words are imprecise in meaning, however, and may be used and interpreted differently by pathologists and clinicians. The goals of this study were to 1) assess the frequency of use of 18 modifiers, 2) determine the probability of a positive diagnosis implied by the modifiers, 3) identify preferred modifiers for different levels of probability, 4) ascertain the importance of factors that affect expression of diagnostic certainty, and 5) evaluate differences based on gender, employment, and experience. We surveyed 202 clinical pathologists who were board-certified by the American College of Veterinary Pathologists (Clinical Pathology). Surveys were distributed in October 2001 and returned by e-mail, fax, or surface mail over a 2-month period. Results were analyzed by parametric and nonparametric tests. Survey response rate was 47.5% (n = 96) and primarily included clinical pathologists at veterinary schools (n = 58) and diagnostic laboratories (n = 31). Eleven of 18 terms were used "often" or "sometimes" by >/= 50% of respondents. Broad variability was found in the probability assigned to each term, especially those with median values of 75 to 90%. Preferred modifiers for 7 numerical probabilities ranging from 0 to 100% included 68 unique terms; however, a set of 10 terms was used by >/= 50% of respondents. Cellularity and quality of the sample, experience of the pathologist, and implications of the diagnosis were the most important factors affecting the expression of probability. Because of wide discrepancy in the implied likelihood of a diagnosis using words, defined terminology and controlled vocabulary may be useful in improving communication and the quality of data in cytology reporting.

Youth 1974: Finance-Related Attitudes. Report on the Institute's Third Biennial Survey of Americans Ages 14 through 25.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute of Life Insurance, New York, NY.

The probability sample for this national survey of youth's attitudes included 2,510 young people between the ages of 14 and 25 years. Results indicate that at the start of the 1970's there was a major turn about in attitudes. The fast changing attitudes of the 1960's seem to have been replaced by a more stable and conservative set of views and…

A synthesis of convenience survey and other data to estimate undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men in England and Wales.

PubMed

Walker, Kate; Seaman, Shaun R; De Angelis, Daniela; Presanis, Anne M; Dodds, Julie P; Johnson, Anne M; Mercey, Danielle; Gill, O Noel; Copas, Andrew J

2011-10-01

Hard-to-reach population subgroups are typically investigated using convenience sampling, which may give biased estimates. Combining information from such surveys, a probability survey and clinic surveillance, can potentially minimize the bias. We developed a methodology to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales aged 16-44 years in 2003, making fuller use of the available data than earlier work. We performed a synthesis of three data sources: genitourinary medicine clinic surveillance (11 380 tests), a venue-based convenience survey including anonymous HIV testing (3702 MSM) and a general population sexual behaviour survey (134 MSM). A logistic regression model to predict undiagnosed infection was fitted to the convenience survey data and then applied to the MSMs in the population survey to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed infection in the general MSM population. This estimate was corrected for selection biases in the convenience survey using clinic surveillance data. A sensitivity analysis addressed uncertainty in our assumptions. The estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in MSM was 2.4% [95% confidence interval (95% CI 1.7-3.0%)], and between 1.6% (95% CI 1.1-2.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.1%) depending on assumptions; corresponding to 5500 (3390-7180), 3610 (2180-4740) and 7570 (4790-9840) men, and undiagnosed fractions of 33, 24 and 40%, respectively. Our estimates are consistent with earlier work that did not make full use of data sources. Reconciling data from multiple sources, including probability-, clinic- and venue-based convenience samples can reduce bias in estimates. This methodology could be applied in other settings to take full advantage of multiple imperfect data sources.

Sexual behaviors, relationships, and perceived health status among adult women in the United States: results from a national probability sample.

PubMed

Herbenick, Debby; Reece, Michael; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2010-10-01

Past surveys of sexual behavior have demonstrated that female sexual behavior is influenced by medical and sociocultural changes. To be most attentive to women and their sexual lives, it is important to have an understanding of the continually evolving sexual behaviors of contemporary women in the United States. The purpose of this study, the National Survey of Sexual Health and Behavior (NSSHB), was to, in a national probability survey of women ages 18-92, assess the proportion of women in various age cohorts who had engaged in solo and partnered sexual activities in the past 90 days and to explore associations with participants' sexual behavior and their relationship and perceived health status. Past year frequencies of masturbation, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse were also assessed. A national probability sample of 2,523 women ages 18 to 92 completed a cross-sectional internet based survey about their sexual behavior. Relationship status; perceived health status; experience of solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving oral sex, receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse, anal intercourse, in the past 90 days; frequency of solo masturbation, vaginal intercourse, and anal intercourse in the past year. Recent solo masturbation, oral sex, and vaginal intercourse were prevalent among women, decreased with age, and varied in their associations with relationship and perceived health status. Recent anal sex and same-sex oral sex were uncommonly reported. Solo masturbation was most frequent among women ages 18 to 39, vaginal intercourse was most frequent among women ages 18 to 29 and anal sex was infrequently reported. Contemporary women in the United States engage in a diverse range of solo and partnered sexual activities, though sexual behavior is less common and more infrequent among older age cohorts. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Snowball Vs. House-to-House Technique for Measuring Annual Incidence of Kala-azar in the Higher Endemic Blocks of Bihar, India: A Comparison

PubMed Central

Siddiqui, Niyamat A.; Rabidas, Vidya N.; Sinha, Sanjay K.; Verma, Rakesh B.; Pandey, Krishna; Singh, Vijay P.; Ranjan, Alok; Topno, Roshan K.; Lal, Chandra S.; Kumar, Vijay; Sahoo, Ganesh C.; Sridhar, Srikantaih; Pandey, Arvind; Das, Pradeep

2016-01-01

Background Visceral Leishmaniasis, commonly known as kala-azar, is widely prevalent in Bihar. The National Kala-azar Control Program has applied house-to-house survey approach several times for estimating Kala-azar incidence in the past. However, this approach includes huge logistics and operational cost, as occurrence of kala-azar is clustered in nature. The present study aims to compare efficiency, cost and feasibility of snowball sampling approach to house-to-house survey approach in capturing kala-azar cases in two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Methodology/Principal findings A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in two highly endemic Primary Health Centre (PHC) areas, each from two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Snowball technique (used to locate potential subjects with help of key informants where subjects are hard to locate) and house-to-house survey technique were applied to detect all the new cases of Kala-azar during a defined reference period of one year i.e. June, 2010 to May, 2011. The study covered a total of 105,035 households with 537,153 populations. Out of total 561 cases and 17 deaths probably due to kala-azar, identified by the study, snowball sampling approach captured only 221 cases and 13 deaths, whereas 489 cases and 17 deaths were detected by house-to-house survey approach. Higher value of McNemar’s χ² statistics (64; p<0.0001) for house-to-house survey approach than snowball sampling and relative difference (>1) indicates that most of the kala-azar cases missed by snowball sampling were captured by house-to-house approach with 13% of omission. Conclusion/Significance Snowball sampling was not found sensitive enough as it captured only about 50% of VL cases. However, it captured about 77% of the deaths probably due to kala-azar and was found more cost-effective than house-to-house approach. Standardization of snowball approach with improved procedure, training and logistics may enhance the sensitivity of snowball sampling and its application in national Kala-azar elimination programme as cost-effective approach for estimation of kala-azar burden. PMID:27681709

Snowball Vs. House-to-House Technique for Measuring Annual Incidence of Kala-azar in the Higher Endemic Blocks of Bihar, India: A Comparison.

PubMed

Siddiqui, Niyamat A; Rabidas, Vidya N; Sinha, Sanjay K; Verma, Rakesh B; Pandey, Krishna; Singh, Vijay P; Ranjan, Alok; Topno, Roshan K; Lal, Chandra S; Kumar, Vijay; Sahoo, Ganesh C; Sridhar, Srikantaih; Pandey, Arvind; Das, Pradeep

2016-09-01

Visceral Leishmaniasis, commonly known as kala-azar, is widely prevalent in Bihar. The National Kala-azar Control Program has applied house-to-house survey approach several times for estimating Kala-azar incidence in the past. However, this approach includes huge logistics and operational cost, as occurrence of kala-azar is clustered in nature. The present study aims to compare efficiency, cost and feasibility of snowball sampling approach to house-to-house survey approach in capturing kala-azar cases in two endemic districts of Bihar, India. A community based cross-sectional study was conducted in two highly endemic Primary Health Centre (PHC) areas, each from two endemic districts of Bihar, India. Snowball technique (used to locate potential subjects with help of key informants where subjects are hard to locate) and house-to-house survey technique were applied to detect all the new cases of Kala-azar during a defined reference period of one year i.e. June, 2010 to May, 2011. The study covered a total of 105,035 households with 537,153 populations. Out of total 561 cases and 17 deaths probably due to kala-azar, identified by the study, snowball sampling approach captured only 221 cases and 13 deaths, whereas 489 cases and 17 deaths were detected by house-to-house survey approach. Higher value of McNemar's χ² statistics (64; p<0.0001) for house-to-house survey approach than snowball sampling and relative difference (>1) indicates that most of the kala-azar cases missed by snowball sampling were captured by house-to-house approach with 13% of omission. Snowball sampling was not found sensitive enough as it captured only about 50% of VL cases. However, it captured about 77% of the deaths probably due to kala-azar and was found more cost-effective than house-to-house approach. Standardization of snowball approach with improved procedure, training and logistics may enhance the sensitivity of snowball sampling and its application in national Kala-azar elimination programme as cost-effective approach for estimation of kala-azar burden.

Inverse probability weighting and doubly robust methods in correcting the effects of non-response in the reimbursed medication and self-reported turnout estimates in the ATH survey.

PubMed

Härkänen, Tommi; Kaikkonen, Risto; Virtala, Esa; Koskinen, Seppo

2014-11-06

To assess the nonresponse rates in a questionnaire survey with respect to administrative register data, and to correct the bias statistically. The Finnish Regional Health and Well-being Study (ATH) in 2010 was based on a national sample and several regional samples. Missing data analysis was based on socio-demographic register data covering the whole sample. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) methods were estimated using the logistic regression model, which was selected using the Bayesian information criteria. The crude, weighted and true self-reported turnout in the 2008 municipal election and prevalences of entitlements to specially reimbursed medication, and the crude and weighted body mass index (BMI) means were compared. The IPW method appeared to remove a relatively large proportion of the bias compared to the crude prevalence estimates of the turnout and the entitlements to specially reimbursed medication. Several demographic factors were shown to be associated with missing data, but few interactions were found. Our results suggest that the IPW method can improve the accuracy of results of a population survey, and the model selection provides insight into the structure of missing data. However, health-related missing data mechanisms are beyond the scope of statistical methods, which mainly rely on socio-demographic information to correct the results.

Design and Weighting Methods for a Nationally Representative Sample of HIV-infected Adults Receiving Medical Care in the United States-Medical Monitoring Project

PubMed Central

Iachan, Ronaldo; H. Johnson, Christopher; L. Harding, Richard; Kyle, Tonja; Saavedra, Pedro; L. Frazier, Emma; Beer, Linda; L. Mattson, Christine; Skarbinski, Jacek

2016-01-01

Background: Health surveys of the general US population are inadequate for monitoring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection because the relatively low prevalence of the disease (<0.5%) leads to small subpopulation sample sizes. Objective: To collect a nationally and locally representative probability sample of HIV-infected adults receiving medical care to monitor clinical and behavioral outcomes, supplementing the data in the National HIV Surveillance System. This paper describes the sample design and weighting methods for the Medical Monitoring Project (MMP) and provides estimates of the size and characteristics of this population. Methods: To develop a method for obtaining valid, representative estimates of the in-care population, we implemented a cross-sectional, three-stage design that sampled 23 jurisdictions, then 691 facilities, then 9,344 HIV patients receiving medical care, using probability-proportional-to-size methods. The data weighting process followed standard methods, accounting for the probabilities of selection at each stage and adjusting for nonresponse and multiplicity. Nonresponse adjustments accounted for differing response at both facility and patient levels. Multiplicity adjustments accounted for visits to more than one HIV care facility. Results: MMP used a multistage stratified probability sampling design that was approximately self-weighting in each of the 23 project areas and nationally. The probability sample represents the estimated 421,186 HIV-infected adults receiving medical care during January through April 2009. Methods were efficient (i.e., induced small, unequal weighting effects and small standard errors for a range of weighted estimates). Conclusion: The information collected through MMP allows monitoring trends in clinical and behavioral outcomes and informs resource allocation for treatment and prevention activities. PMID:27651851

Urinary incontinence, depression, and economic outcomes in a cohort of women between the ages of 54 and 65 years.

PubMed

Hung, Kristin J; Awtrey, Christopher S; Tsai, Alexander C

2014-04-01

To estimate the association between urinary incontinence (UI) and probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. The analytic sample consisted of 4,511 women enrolled in the population-based Health and Retirement Study cohort. The analysis baseline was 1996, the year that questions about UI were added to the survey instrument, and at which time study participants were 54-65 years of age. Women were followed-up with biennial interviews until 2010-2011. Outcomes of interest were onset of probable depression, work disability, and workforce exit. Urinary incontinence was specified in different ways based on questions about experience and frequency of urine loss. We fit Cox proportional hazards regression models to the data, adjusting the estimates for baseline sociodemographic and health status variables previously found to confound the association between UI and the outcomes of interest. At baseline, 727 participants (survey-weighted prevalence, 16.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 15.4-18.0) reported any UI, of which 212 (survey-weighted prevalence, 29.2%; 95% CI 25.4-33.3) reported urine loss on more than 15 days in the past month; and 1,052 participants were categorized as having probable depression (survey-weighted prevalence, 21.6%; 95% CI 19.8-23.6). Urinary incontinence was associated with increased risks for probable depression (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.43; 95% CI 1.27-1.62) and work disability (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI 1.01-1.45), but not workforce exit (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% CI 0.93-1.21). In a population-based cohort of women between ages 54 and 65 years, UI was associated with increased risks for probable depression and work disability. Improved diagnosis and management of UI may yield significant economic and psychosocial benefits.

Surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza virus.

PubMed

Hoye, Bethany J; Munster, Vincent J; Nishiura, Hiroshi; Klaassen, Marcel; Fouchier, Ron A M

2010-12-01

Recent demand for increased understanding of avian influenza virus in its natural hosts, together with the development of high-throughput diagnostics, has heralded a new era in wildlife disease surveillance. However, survey design, sampling, and interpretation in the context of host populations still present major challenges. We critically reviewed current surveillance to distill a series of considerations pertinent to avian influenza virus surveillance in wild birds, including consideration of what, when, where, and how many to sample in the context of survey objectives. Recognizing that wildlife disease surveillance is logistically and financially constrained, we discuss pragmatic alternatives for achieving probability-based sampling schemes that capture this host-pathogen system. We recommend hypothesis-driven surveillance through standardized, local surveys that are, in turn, strategically compiled over broad geographic areas. Rethinking the use of existing surveillance infrastructure can thereby greatly enhance our global understanding of avian influenza and other zoonotic diseases.

Effect of passive acoustic sampling methodology on detecting bats after declines from white nose syndrome

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coleman, Laci S.; Ford, W. Mark; Dobony, Christopher A.; Britzke, Eric R.

2014-01-01

Concomitant with the emergence and spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and precipitous decline of many bat species in North America, natural resource managers need modified and/or new techniques for bat inventory and monitoring that provide robust occupancy estimates. We used Anabat acoustic detectors to determine the most efficient passive acoustic sampling design for optimizing detection probabilities of multiple bat species in a WNS-impacted environment in New York, USA. Our sampling protocol included: six acoustic stations deployed for the entire duration of monitoring as well as a 4 x 4 grid and five transects of 5-10 acoustic units that were deployed for 6-8 night sample durations surveyed during the summers of 2011-2012. We used Program PRESENCE to determine detection probability and site occupancy estimates. Overall, the grid produced the highest detection probabilities for most species because it contained the most detectors and intercepted the greatest spatial area. However, big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) and species not impacted by WNS were detected easily regardless of sampling array. Endangered Indiana (Myotis sodalis) and little brown (Myotis lucifugus) and tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) showed declines in detection probabilities over our study, potentially indicative of continued WNS-associated declines. Identification of species presence through efficient methodologies is vital for future conservation efforts as bat populations decline further due to WNS and other factors.   

Report on the U.S. Geological Survey's Evaluation Program Standard Reference Samples Distributed in October 1995: T-137 (Trace Constituents), M-136 (Major Constituents), N-47 (Nutrient Constituents), N-48 (Nutrient Constituents), P-25 (Low Ionic Strength Constituents), and Hg-21 (Mercury)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrar, Jerry W.; Long, H. Keith

1996-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for 6 standard reference samples--T-137 (trace constituents), M-136 (major constituents), N-47 (nutrient constituents), N-48 (nutrient constituents), P-25 (low ionic strength constituents), and Hg-21 (mercury)--that were distributed in October 1995 to 149 laboratories registered in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 136 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to: overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Report on the U.S. Geological Survey's evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in April 1994; T-129 (trace constituents), M-130 (major constituents), N-42 (nutrients), P-22 (low ionic strength), and Hg-18 (mercury)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, H. Keith; Farrar, Jerry W.

1994-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for five standard reference samples--T-129 (trace constituents), M-130 (major constituents), N-42 (nutrients), P-22 (low ionic strength), Hg-18(mercury),--that were distributed in April 1994 to 157 laboratories registered in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 133 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to: overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the five reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the five standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Report of the U.S. Geological Survey's evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in April 1993; T-123 (trace constituents), T-125 (trace constituents), M-126 (major constituents, N-38 (nutrients), N-39 (nutrients), P-20 (low ionic strength, and Hg-16 (mercury)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, H.K.; Farrar, J.W.

1993-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for seven standard reference samples--T-123 (trace constituents), T-125 (trace constituents), M-126 (major constituents), N-38 (nutrients), N-39 (Nutrients), P-20 (precipitation-low ionic strength), and Hg-16 (mercury)--that were distributed in April 1993 to 175 laboratories registered in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data received from 131 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to: overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the 7 reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the seven standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's Analytical Evaluation Program for standard reference samples distributed in March 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrar, Jerry W.; Chleboun, Kimberly M.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for 8 standard reference samples -- T-157 (trace constituents), M-150 (major constituents), N-61 (nutrient constituents), N-62 (nutrient constituents), P-32 (low ionic strength constituents), GWT-5 (ground-water trace constituents), GWM- 4 (ground-water major constituents),and Hg-28 (mercury) -- that were distributed in March 1999 to 120 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 111 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the seven reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the 8 standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

A novel, efficient method for estimating the prevalence of acute malnutrition in resource-constrained and crisis-affected settings: A simulation study.

PubMed

Frison, Severine; Kerac, Marko; Checchi, Francesco; Nicholas, Jennifer

2017-01-01

The assessment of the prevalence of acute malnutrition in children under five is widely used for the detection of emergencies, planning interventions, advocacy, and monitoring and evaluation. This study examined PROBIT Methods which convert parameters (mean and standard deviation (SD)) of a normally distributed variable to a cumulative probability below any cut-off to estimate acute malnutrition in children under five using Middle-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC). We assessed the performance of: PROBIT Method I, with mean MUAC from the survey sample and MUAC SD from a database of previous surveys; and PROBIT Method II, with mean and SD of MUAC observed in the survey sample. Specifically, we generated sub-samples from 852 survey datasets, simulating 100 surveys for eight sample sizes. Overall the methods were tested on 681 600 simulated surveys. PROBIT methods relying on sample sizes as small as 50 had better performance than the classic method for estimating and classifying the prevalence of acute malnutrition. They had better precision in the estimation of acute malnutrition for all sample sizes and better coverage for smaller sample sizes, while having relatively little bias. They classified situations accurately for a threshold of 5% acute malnutrition. Both PROBIT methods had similar outcomes. PROBIT Methods have a clear advantage in the assessment of acute malnutrition prevalence based on MUAC, compared to the classic method. Their use would require much lower sample sizes, thus enable great time and resource savings and permit timely and/or locally relevant prevalence estimates of acute malnutrition for a swift and well-targeted response.

Brand switching and toxic chemicals in cigarette smoke: A national study.

PubMed

Mendel, Jennifer R; Baig, Sabeeh A; Hall, Marissa G; Jeong, Michelle; Byron, M Justin; Morgan, Jennifer C; Noar, Seth M; Ribisl, Kurt M; Brewer, Noel T

2018-01-01

US law requires disclosure of quantities of toxic chemicals (constituents) in cigarette smoke by brand and sub-brand. This information may drive smokers to switch to cigarettes with lower chemical quantities, under the misperception that doing so can reduce health risk. We sought to understand past brand-switching behavior and whether learning about specific chemicals in cigarette smoke increases susceptibility to brand switching. Participants were US adult smokers surveyed by phone (n = 1,151, probability sample) and online (n = 1,561, convenience sample). Surveys assessed whether smokers had ever switched cigarette brands or styles to reduce health risk and about likelihood of switching if the smoker learned their brand had more of a specific chemical than other cigarettes. Chemicals presented were nicotine, carbon monoxide, lead, formaldehyde, arsenic, and ammonia. Past brand switching to reduce health risk was common among smokers (43% in phone survey, 28% in online survey). Smokers who were female, over 25, and current "light" cigarette users were more likely to have switched brands to reduce health risks (all p < .05). Overall, 61-92% of smokers were susceptible to brand switching based on information about particular chemicals. In both samples, lead, formaldehyde, arsenic, and ammonia led to more susceptibility to switch than nicotine (all p < .05). Many US smokers have switched brands or styles to reduce health risks. The majority said they might or would definitely switch brands if they learned their cigarettes had more of a toxic chemical than other brands. Brand switching is a probable unintended consequence of communications that show differences in smoke chemicals between brands.

Gluten-containing grains skew gluten assessment in oats due to sample grind non-homogeneity.

PubMed

Fritz, Ronald D; Chen, Yumin; Contreras, Veronica

2017-02-01

Oats are easily contaminated with gluten-rich kernels of wheat, rye and barley. These contaminants are like gluten 'pills', shown here to skew gluten analysis results. Using R-Biopharm R5 ELISA, we quantified gluten in gluten-free oatmeal servings from an in-market survey. For samples with a 5-20ppm reading on a first test, replicate analyses provided results ranging <5ppm to >160ppm. This suggests sample grinding may inadequately disperse gluten to allow a single accurate gluten assessment. To ascertain this, and characterize the distribution of 0.25-g gluten test results for kernel contaminated oats, twelve 50g samples of pure oats, each spiked with a wheat kernel, showed that 0.25g test results followed log-normal-like distributions. With this, we estimate probabilities of mis-assessment for a 'single measure/sample' relative to the <20ppm regulatory threshold, and derive an equation relating the probability of mis-assessment to sample average gluten content. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Posttraumatic stress disorder and associated risk factors in Canadian peacekeeping veterans with health-related disabilities.

PubMed

Richardson, J Don; Naifeh, James A; Elhai, Jon D

2007-08-01

This study investigates posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and its associated risk factors in a random, national, Canadian sample of United Nations peacekeeping veterans with service-related disabilities. Participants included 1016 male veterans (age < 65 years) who served in the Canadian Forces from 1990 to 1999 and were selected from a larger random sample of 1968 veterans who voluntarily and anonymously completed a general health survey conducted by Veterans Affairs Canada in 1999. Survey instruments included the PTSD Checklist-Military Version (PCL-M), Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D), and questionnaires regarding life events during the past year, current stressors, sociodemographic characteristics, and military history. We found that rates of probable PTSD (PCL-M score > 50) among veterans were 10.92% for veterans deployed once and 14.84% for those deployed more than once. The rates of probable clinical depression (CES-D score > 16) were 30.35% for veterans deployed once and 32.62% for those deployed more than once. We found that, in multivariate analyses, probable PTSD rates and PTSD severity were associated with younger age, single marital status, and deployment frequency. PTSD is an important health concern in the veteran population. Understanding such risk factors as younger age and unmarried status can help predict morbidity among trauma-exposed veterans.

76 FR 770 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-06

... reduces the time and cost of preparing mailout packages that contain unique variable data, while improving... developing productivity measurements. Estimates produced from the MWTS are based on a probability sample and..., excluding manufacturers' sales branches and offices. Estimated Number of Respondents: 4,500. Estimated Time...

REGIONAL PATTERNS OF LOCAL DIVERSITY OF TREES: ASSOCIATIONS WITH ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCE

EPA Science Inventory

We used a probability-based sampling scheme to survey the forested lands of 14 states in five regions in the US(California,Colorado,and parts of the Southeast,Mid-Atlantic,and Northeast)from 1990 to 1993. Using a nationally consistent plot design, we evaluated the local diversity...

LEVEL AND EXTENT OF MERCURY CONTAMINATION IN OREGON LOTIC FISH

EPA Science Inventory

As part of the U.S. EPA's EMAP Oregon Pilot project, we conducted a probability survey of 154 Oregon streams and rivers to assess the spatial extent of mercury (Hg) contamination in fish tissue across the state. Samples consisted of whole fish analyses of both small (< 120 mm) a...

USING BAYESIAN SPATIAL MODELS TO FACILITATE WATER QUALITY MONITORING

EPA Science Inventory

The Clean Water Act of 1972 requires states to monitor the quality of their surface water. The number of sites sampled on streams and rivers varies widely by state. A few states are now using probability survey designs to select sites, while most continue to rely on other proce...

SMALL AREA ESTIMATION OF INDICATORS OF STREAM CONDITION FOR MAIA USING HIERARCHICAL BAYES PREDICTION MODELS

EPA Science Inventory

Probability surveys of stream and river resources (hereafter referred to as streams) provide reliable estimates of stream condition when the areas for the estimates have sufficient number of sample sites. Monitoring programs are frequently asked to provide estimates for areas th...

Report on the U.S. Geological Survey's evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in October 1994 : T-131 (trace constituents), T-133 (trace constituents), M-132 (major constituents), N-43 (nutrients), N-44 (nutrients), P-23 (low ionic strength) and Hg-19 (mercury)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, H. Keith; Farrar, Jerry W.

1995-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for 7 standard reference samples--T-131 (trace constituents), T-133 (trace constituents), M-132 (major constituents), N-43 (nutrients), N-44 (nutrients), P-23 (low ionic strength), and Hg-19 (mercury). The samples were distributed in October 1994 to 131 laboratories registered in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 121 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to: overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the seven reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the seven standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Pollock, K.H.; Therres, Glenn D.

2001-01-01

Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

Modeling the Sensitivity of Field Surveys for Detection of Environmental DNA (eDNA)

PubMed Central

Schultz, Martin T.; Lance, Richard F.

2015-01-01

The environmental DNA (eDNA) method is the practice of collecting environmental samples and analyzing them for the presence of a genetic marker specific to a target species. Little is known about the sensitivity of the eDNA method. Sensitivity is the probability that the target marker will be detected if it is present in the water body. Methods and tools are needed to assess the sensitivity of sampling protocols, design eDNA surveys, and interpret survey results. In this study, the sensitivity of the eDNA method is modeled as a function of ambient target marker concentration. The model accounts for five steps of sample collection and analysis, including: 1) collection of a filtered water sample from the source; 2) extraction of DNA from the filter and isolation in a purified elution; 3) removal of aliquots from the elution for use in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay; 4) PCR; and 5) genetic sequencing. The model is applicable to any target species. For demonstration purposes, the model is parameterized for bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (H. molitrix) assuming sampling protocols used in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). Simulation results show that eDNA surveys have a high false negative rate at low concentrations of the genetic marker. This is attributed to processing of water samples and division of the extraction elution in preparation for the PCR assay. Increases in field survey sensitivity can be achieved by increasing sample volume, sample number, and PCR replicates. Increasing sample volume yields the greatest increase in sensitivity. It is recommended that investigators estimate and communicate the sensitivity of eDNA surveys to help facilitate interpretation of eDNA survey results. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to evaluate the results of surveys in which no water samples test positive for the target marker. It is also recommended that invasive species managers articulate concentration-based sensitivity objectives for eDNA surveys. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to design appropriate sampling protocols. The model provides insights into how sampling protocols can be designed or modified to achieve these sensitivity objectives. PMID:26509674

Modeling the Sensitivity of Field Surveys for Detection of Environmental DNA (eDNA).

PubMed

Schultz, Martin T; Lance, Richard F

2015-01-01

The environmental DNA (eDNA) method is the practice of collecting environmental samples and analyzing them for the presence of a genetic marker specific to a target species. Little is known about the sensitivity of the eDNA method. Sensitivity is the probability that the target marker will be detected if it is present in the water body. Methods and tools are needed to assess the sensitivity of sampling protocols, design eDNA surveys, and interpret survey results. In this study, the sensitivity of the eDNA method is modeled as a function of ambient target marker concentration. The model accounts for five steps of sample collection and analysis, including: 1) collection of a filtered water sample from the source; 2) extraction of DNA from the filter and isolation in a purified elution; 3) removal of aliquots from the elution for use in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay; 4) PCR; and 5) genetic sequencing. The model is applicable to any target species. For demonstration purposes, the model is parameterized for bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (H. molitrix) assuming sampling protocols used in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS). Simulation results show that eDNA surveys have a high false negative rate at low concentrations of the genetic marker. This is attributed to processing of water samples and division of the extraction elution in preparation for the PCR assay. Increases in field survey sensitivity can be achieved by increasing sample volume, sample number, and PCR replicates. Increasing sample volume yields the greatest increase in sensitivity. It is recommended that investigators estimate and communicate the sensitivity of eDNA surveys to help facilitate interpretation of eDNA survey results. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to evaluate the results of surveys in which no water samples test positive for the target marker. It is also recommended that invasive species managers articulate concentration-based sensitivity objectives for eDNA surveys. In the absence of such information, it is difficult to design appropriate sampling protocols. The model provides insights into how sampling protocols can be designed or modified to achieve these sensitivity objectives.

Estimating juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) abundance from beach seine data collected in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Kirsch, Joseph E.; Hendrix, A. Noble

2016-06-17

Resource managers rely on abundance or density metrics derived from beach seine surveys to make vital decisions that affect fish population dynamics and assemblage structure. However, abundance and density metrics may be biased by imperfect capture and lack of geographic closure during sampling. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty about the capture efficiency of juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) by beach seines. Heterogeneity in capture can occur through unrealistic assumptions of closure and from variation in the probability of capture caused by environmental conditions. We evaluated the assumptions of closure and the influence of environmental conditions on capture efficiency and abundance estimates of Chinook salmon from beach seining within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and the San Francisco Bay. Beach seine capture efficiency was measured using a stratified random sampling design combined with open and closed replicate depletion sampling. A total of 56 samples were collected during the spring of 2014. To assess variability in capture probability and the absolute abundance of juvenile Chinook salmon, beach seine capture efficiency data were fitted to the paired depletion design using modified N-mixture models. These models allowed us to explicitly test the closure assumption and estimate environmental effects on the probability of capture. We determined that our updated method allowing for lack of closure between depletion samples drastically outperformed traditional data analysis that assumes closure among replicate samples. The best-fit model (lowest-valued Akaike Information Criterion model) included the probability of fish being available for capture (relaxed closure assumption), capture probability modeled as a function of water velocity and percent coverage of fine sediment, and abundance modeled as a function of sample area, temperature, and water velocity. Given that beach seining is a ubiquitous sampling technique for many species, our improved sampling design and analysis could provide significant improvements in density and abundance estimation.

National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey: National Youth Fitness Survey Estimation Procedures, 2012.

PubMed

Johnson, Clifford L; Dohrmann, Sylvia M; Kerckove, Van de; Diallo, Mamadou S; Clark, Jason; Mohadjer, Leyla K; Burt, Vicki L

2014-11-01

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey's (NHANES) National Youth Fitness Survey (NNYFS) was conducted in 2012 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). NNYFS collected data on physical activity and fitness levels to evaluate the health and fitness of children aged 3-15 in the United States. The survey comprised three levels of data collection: a household screening interview (or screener), an in-home personal interview, and a physical examination. The screener's primary objective was to determine whether any children in the household were eligible for the interview and examination. Eligibility was determined by preset selection probabilities for desired sex-age subdomains. After selection, the in-home personal interview collected demographic, health, physical activity, and nutrition information about the child as well as information about the household. The examination included physical measurements and fitness tests. This report provides background on the NNYFS program and summarizes the survey's sample design specifications. The report presents NNYFS estimation procedures, including the methods used to calculate survey weights for the full sample as well as a combined NHANES/NNYFS sample for 2012 (accessible only through the NCHS Research Data Center). The report also describes appropriate variance estimation methods. Documentation of the sample selection methods, survey content, data collection procedures, and methods to assess nonsampling errors are reported elsewhere. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Interpreting results of cluster surveys in emergency settings: is the LQAS test the best option?

PubMed

Bilukha, Oleg O; Blanton, Curtis

2008-12-09

Cluster surveys are commonly used in humanitarian emergencies to measure health and nutrition indicators. Deitchler et al. have proposed to use Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) hypothesis testing in cluster surveys to classify the prevalence of global acute malnutrition as exceeding or not exceeding the pre-established thresholds. Field practitioners and decision-makers must clearly understand the meaning and implications of using this test in interpreting survey results to make programmatic decisions. We demonstrate that the LQAS test--as proposed by Deitchler et al.--is prone to producing false-positive results and thus is likely to suggest interventions in situations where interventions may not be needed. As an alternative, to provide more useful information for decision-making, we suggest reporting the probability of an indicator's exceeding the threshold as a direct measure of "risk". Such probability can be easily determined in field settings by using a simple spreadsheet calculator. The "risk" of exceeding the threshold can then be considered in the context of other aggravating and protective factors to make informed programmatic decisions.

Interpreting results of cluster surveys in emergency settings: is the LQAS test the best option?

PubMed Central

Bilukha, Oleg O; Blanton, Curtis

2008-01-01

Cluster surveys are commonly used in humanitarian emergencies to measure health and nutrition indicators. Deitchler et al. have proposed to use Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) hypothesis testing in cluster surveys to classify the prevalence of global acute malnutrition as exceeding or not exceeding the pre-established thresholds. Field practitioners and decision-makers must clearly understand the meaning and implications of using this test in interpreting survey results to make programmatic decisions. We demonstrate that the LQAS test–as proposed by Deitchler et al. – is prone to producing false-positive results and thus is likely to suggest interventions in situations where interventions may not be needed. As an alternative, to provide more useful information for decision-making, we suggest reporting the probability of an indicator's exceeding the threshold as a direct measure of "risk". Such probability can be easily determined in field settings by using a simple spreadsheet calculator. The "risk" of exceeding the threshold can then be considered in the context of other aggravating and protective factors to make informed programmatic decisions. PMID:19068120

IDENTIFICATION OF 1.4 MILLION ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THE MID-INFRARED USING WISE DATA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Secrest, N. J.; Dudik, R. P.; Dorland, B. N.

2015-11-15

We present an all-sky sample of ≈1.4 million active galactic nuclei (AGNs) meeting a two-color infrared photometric selection criteria for AGNs as applied to sources from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer final catalog release (AllWISE). We assess the spatial distribution and optical properties of our sample and find that the results are consistent with expectations for AGNs. These sources have a mean density of ≈38 AGNs per square degree on the sky, and their apparent magnitude distribution peaks at g ≈ 20, extending to objects as faint as g ≈ 26. We test the AGN selection criteria against a largemore » sample of optically identified stars and determine the “leakage” (that is, the probability that a star detected in an optical survey will be misidentified as a quasi-stellar object (QSO) in our sample) rate to be ≤4.0 × 10{sup −5}. We conclude that our sample contains almost no optically identified stars (≤0.041%), making this sample highly promising for future celestial reference frame work as it significantly increases the number of all-sky, compact extragalactic objects. We further compare our sample to catalogs of known AGNs/QSOs and find a completeness value of ≳84% (that is, the probability of correctly identifying a known AGN/QSO is at least 84%) for AGNs brighter than a limiting magnitude of R ≲ 19. Our sample includes approximately 1.1 million previously uncataloged AGNs.« less

Taboo search by successive confinement: Surveying a potential energy surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chekmarev, Sergei F.

2001-09-01

A taboo search for minima on a potential energy surface (PES) is performed by means of confinement molecular dynamics: the molecular dynamics trajectory of the system is successively confined to various basins on the PES that have not been sampled yet. The approach is illustrated for a 13-atom Lennard-Jones cluster. It is shown that the taboo search radically accelerates the process of surveying the PES, with the probability of finding a new minimum defined by a propagating Fermi-like distribution.

Multiseason occupancy models for correlated replicate surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hines, James; Nichols, James D.; Collazo, Jaime

2014-01-01

Occupancy surveys collecting data from adjacent (sometimes correlated) spatial replicates have become relatively popular for logistical reasons. Hines et al. (2010) presented one approach to modelling such data for single-season occupancy surveys. Here, we present a multiseason analogue of this model (with corresponding software) for inferences about occupancy dynamics. We include a new parameter to deal with the uncertainty associated with the first spatial replicate for both single-season and multiseason models. We use a case study, based on the brown-headed nuthatch, to assess the need for these models when analysing data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and we test various hypotheses about occupancy dynamics for this species in the south-eastern United States. The new model permits inference about local probabilities of extinction, colonization and occupancy for sampling conducted over multiple seasons. The model performs adequately, based on a small simulation study and on results of the case study analysis. The new model incorporating correlated replicates was strongly favoured by model selection for the BBS data for brown-headed nuthatch (Sitta pusilla). Latitude was found to be an important source of variation in local colonization and occupancy probabilities for brown-headed nuthatch, with both probabilities being higher near the centre of the species range, as opposed to more northern and southern areas. We recommend this new occupancy model for detection–nondetection studies that use potentially correlated replicates.

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed

West, Brady T; Sakshaug, Joseph W; Aurelien, Guy Alain S

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data.

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed Central

West, Brady T.; Sakshaug, Joseph W.; Aurelien, Guy Alain S.

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data. PMID:27355817

Interlaboratory comparability, bias, and precision for four laboratories measuring analytes in wet deposition, October 1983-December 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brooks, Myron H.; Schroder, LeRoy J.; Willoughby, Timothy C.

1987-01-01

Four laboratories involved in the routine analysis of wet-deposition samples participated in an interlaboratory comparison program managed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The four participants were: Illinois State Water Survey central analytical laboratory in Champaign, Illinois; U.S. Geological Survey national water-quality laboratories in Atlanta, Georgia, and Denver, Colorado; and Inland Waters Directorate national water-quality laboratory in Burlington, Ontario, Canada. Analyses of interlaboratory samples performed by the four laboratories from October 1983 through December 1984 were compared.Participating laboratories analyzed three types of interlaboratory samples--natural wet deposition, simulated wet deposition, and deionized water--for pH and specific conductance, and for dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and orthophosphate. Natural wet-deposition samples were aliquots of actual wet-deposition samples. Analyses of these samples by the four laboratories were compared using analysis of variance. Test results indicated that pH, calcium, nitrate, and ammonium results were not directly comparable among the four laboratories. Statistically significant differences between laboratory results probably only were meaningful for analyses of dissolved calcium. Simulated wet-deposition samples with known analyte concentrations were used to test each laboratory for analyte bias. Laboratory analyses of calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulfate, and nitrate were not significantly different from the known concentrations of these analytes when tested using analysis of variance. Deionized-water samples were used to test each laboratory for reporting of false positive values. The Illinois State Water Survey Laboratory reported the smallest percentage of false positive values for most analytes. Analyte precision was estimated for each laboratory from results of replicate measurements. In general, the Illinois State Water Survey laboratory achieved the greatest precision, whereas the U.S. Geological Survey laboratories achieved the least precision.

Using counts to simultaneously estimate abundance and detection probabilities in a salamander community

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.; Dorazio, R.M.

2004-01-01

A critical variable in both ecological and conservation field studies is determining how many individuals of a species are present within a defined sampling area. Labor intensive techniques such as capture-mark-recapture and removal sampling may provide estimates of abundance, but there are many logistical constraints to their widespread application. Many studies on terrestrial and aquatic salamanders use counts as an index of abundance, assuming that detection remains constant while sampling. If this constancy is violated, determination of detection probabilities is critical to the accurate estimation of abundance. Recently, a model was developed that provides a statistical approach that allows abundance and detection to be estimated simultaneously from spatially and temporally replicated counts. We adapted this model to estimate these parameters for salamanders sampled over a six vear period in area-constrained plots in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Estimates of salamander abundance varied among years, but annual changes in abundance did not vary uniformly among species. Except for one species, abundance estimates were not correlated with site covariates (elevation/soil and water pH, conductivity, air and water temperature). The uncertainty in the estimates was so large as to make correlations ineffectual in predicting which covariates might influence abundance. Detection probabilities also varied among species and sometimes among years for the six species examined. We found such a high degree of variation in our counts and in estimates of detection among species, sites, and years as to cast doubt upon the appropriateness of using count data to monitor population trends using a small number of area-constrained survey plots. Still, the model provided reasonable estimates of abundance that could make it useful in estimating population size from count surveys.

Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

PubMed Central

Chao, Li-Wei; Szrek, Helena; Pereira, Nuno Sousa; Pauly, Mark V.

2009-01-01

Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality. PMID:20376300

ANNz2: Photometric Redshift and Probability Distribution Function Estimation using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadeh, I.; Abdalla, F. B.; Lahav, O.

2016-10-01

We present ANNz2, a new implementation of the public software for photometric redshift (photo-z) estimation of Collister & Lahav, which now includes generation of full probability distribution functions (PDFs). ANNz2 utilizes multiple machine learning methods, such as artificial neural networks and boosted decision/regression trees. The objective of the algorithm is to optimize the performance of the photo-z estimation, to properly derive the associated uncertainties, and to produce both single-value solutions and PDFs. In addition, estimators are made available, which mitigate possible problems of non-representative or incomplete spectroscopic training samples. ANNz2 has already been used as part of the first weak lensing analysis of the Dark Energy Survey, and is included in the experiment's first public data release. Here we illustrate the functionality of the code using data from the tenth data release of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey. The code is available for download at http://github.com/IftachSadeh/ANNZ.

Testing the Accuracy of Aerial Surveys for Large Mammals: An Experiment with African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana).

PubMed

Schlossberg, Scott; Chase, Michael J; Griffin, Curtice R

2016-01-01

Accurate counts of animals are critical for prioritizing conservation efforts. Past research, however, suggests that observers on aerial surveys may fail to detect all individuals of the target species present in the survey area. Such errors could bias population estimates low and confound trend estimation. We used two approaches to assess the accuracy of aerial surveys for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in northern Botswana. First, we used double-observer sampling, in which two observers make observations on the same herds, to estimate detectability of elephants and determine what variables affect it. Second, we compared total counts, a complete survey of the entire study area, against sample counts, in which only a portion of the study area is sampled. Total counts are often considered a complete census, so comparing total counts against sample counts can help to determine if sample counts are underestimating elephant numbers. We estimated that observers detected only 76% ± SE of 2% of elephant herds and 87 ± 1% of individual elephants present in survey strips. Detectability increased strongly with elephant herd size. Out of the four observers used in total, one observer had a lower detection probability than the other three, and detectability was higher in the rear row of seats than the front. The habitat immediately adjacent to animals also affected detectability, with detection more likely in more open habitats. Total counts were not statistically distinguishable from sample counts. Because, however, the double-observer samples revealed that observers missed 13% of elephants, we conclude that total counts may be undercounting elephants as well. These results suggest that elephant population estimates from both sample and total counts are biased low. Because factors such as observer and habitat affected detectability of elephants, comparisons of elephant populations across time or space may be confounded. We encourage survey teams to incorporate detectability analysis in all aerial surveys for mammals.

Testing the Accuracy of Aerial Surveys for Large Mammals: An Experiment with African Savanna Elephants (Loxodonta africana)

PubMed Central

Schlossberg, Scott; Chase, Michael J.; Griffin, Curtice R.

2016-01-01

Accurate counts of animals are critical for prioritizing conservation efforts. Past research, however, suggests that observers on aerial surveys may fail to detect all individuals of the target species present in the survey area. Such errors could bias population estimates low and confound trend estimation. We used two approaches to assess the accuracy of aerial surveys for African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in northern Botswana. First, we used double-observer sampling, in which two observers make observations on the same herds, to estimate detectability of elephants and determine what variables affect it. Second, we compared total counts, a complete survey of the entire study area, against sample counts, in which only a portion of the study area is sampled. Total counts are often considered a complete census, so comparing total counts against sample counts can help to determine if sample counts are underestimating elephant numbers. We estimated that observers detected only 76% ± SE of 2% of elephant herds and 87 ± 1% of individual elephants present in survey strips. Detectability increased strongly with elephant herd size. Out of the four observers used in total, one observer had a lower detection probability than the other three, and detectability was higher in the rear row of seats than the front. The habitat immediately adjacent to animals also affected detectability, with detection more likely in more open habitats. Total counts were not statistically distinguishable from sample counts. Because, however, the double-observer samples revealed that observers missed 13% of elephants, we conclude that total counts may be undercounting elephants as well. These results suggest that elephant population estimates from both sample and total counts are biased low. Because factors such as observer and habitat affected detectability of elephants, comparisons of elephant populations across time or space may be confounded. We encourage survey teams to incorporate detectability analysis in all aerial surveys for mammals. PMID:27755570

Understanding the Pathways of Factors Influencing the Use of Spiritually Based Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kvarfordt, Connie L.; Sheridan, Michael J.

2009-01-01

This investigation is a secondary analysis of a data set (N=283) drawn from a national, probability sample of clinical social workers in the United States. The original study used a cross-sectional, correlational survey design to gather information on practitioners' personal religious/spiritual beliefs and practices; professional attitudes,…

Economic Pressure and Children's Psychological Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robila, Mihaela; Krishnakumar, Ambika

2006-01-01

We examined the mediating role of family dynamics (marital quality, parental depression) in the link between economic pressure and child psychological functioning using the data from the National Survey of Family and Households (NSFH). From the initial multiethnic probability sample, we used a subsample of 2998 parents with a focal child 5 to 17…

Effects of Internet Connectedness and Information Literacy on Quality of Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leung, Louis

2010-01-01

The goal of this exploratory research is to examine the inter-linkage among Internet connectedness, information literacy, and quality of life. Results from a telephone survey, based on a probability sample of 756 Internet users, found that Internet connectedness is not related to quality of life. However, there is a significant relationship…

Connection between Topic-Specific Teacher Knowledge and Student Performance in Lower Secondary School Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tchoshanov, Mourat; Quinones, Maria Cruz; Shakirova, Kadriya B.; Ibragimova, Elena N.; Shakirova, Liliana R.

2017-01-01

The interpretive cross-case study focused on the examination of connections between teacher and student topic-specific knowledge of lower secondary mathematics. Two teachers were selected for the study using non-probability purposive sampling technique. Teachers completed the Teacher Content Knowledge Survey before teaching a topic on division of…

Stress, Coping and Suicide Ideation in Chinese College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Xiaoyun; Wang, Haiping; Xia, Yan; Liu, Xiaohong; Jung, Eunju

2012-01-01

The study was to examine 1) whether stress and coping styles could significantly predict the probability of suicide ideation; 2) and whether coping styles were mediators or moderators on the association between life stress and suicide ideation. The survey was conducted in a sample of 671 Chinese college students. Approximately twenty percent…

Better Child Support Enforcement: Can It Reduce Teenage Premarital Childbearing?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plotnick, Robert D.; Garfinkel, Irwin; McLanahan, Sara S.; Ku, Inhoe

2004-01-01

Stricter child support enforcement may reduce unwed childbearing by raising the costs of fatherhood. The authors investigate this hypothesis using a sample of young women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, to which they add information on state child support enforcement. Models of the probability of a teenage premarital birth and of…

Effect of School Policy on Tobacco Use by School Personnel in Bihar, India.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinha, Dhirendra N.; Gupta, Prakash C.; Warren, Charles W.; Asma, Samira

2004-01-01

This study examined the relationship between school tobacco policies and tobacco use prevalence among school personnel. Two subsets of schools were identified in Bihar, India: Federal schools (with a tobacco policy), and State schools (without a tobacco policy). Stratified probability samples of 50 schools each were selected. The survey was…

Reading Activities of American Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharon, Amiel T.

A reading activities survey as part of the Targeted Research and Development Reading Program was done by interviewing 3,504 adults, aged 16 years or older, selected by area probability sampling. Among the preliminary findings was that the most frequent type of reading is newspaper reading. Seven out of 10 people read or look at a newspaper during…

Periodontal Disease and Oral Hygiene Among Children. United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Center for Health Statistics (DHEW/PHS), Hyattsville, MD.

Statistical data presented on periodontal disease and oral hygiene among noninstitutionalized children, aged 6-11, in the United States are based on a probability sample of approximately 7,400 children involved in a national health survey during 1963-65. The report contains estimates of the Periodontal Index (PI) and the Simplified Oral Hygiene…

How do humans restructure the biodiversity of the Sonoran Desert?

Treesearch

Diane Hope; Corinna Gries; Paige Warren; Madhu Katti; Glenn Stuart; Jake Oleson; Jason Kaye

2005-01-01

We studied patterns of biodiversity across the entire urban, suburban, agricultural, and surrounding Sonoran Desert landscape of central Arizona-Phoenix. A probability-based extensive integrated field inventory was used to survey perennial plants, pollen, birds, and sample soil chemistry, supplemented by monthly or quarterly monitoring of arthropod and bird communities...

Height and Weight of Children: United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamill, Peter V. V.; And Others

This report contains national estimates based on findings from the Health Examination Survey in 1963-65 on height and weight measurements of children 6- to 11-years-old. A nationwide probability sample of 7,119 children was selected to represent the noninstitutionalized children (about 24 million) in this age group. Height was obtained in stocking…

Age of Parental Concern, Diagnosis, and Service Initiation among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zablotsky, Benjamin; Colpe, Lisa J.; Pringle, Beverly A.; Kogan, Michael D.; Rice, Catherine; Blumberg, Stephen J.

2017-01-01

Children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) require substantial support to address the core symptoms of ASD and co-occurring behavioral/developmental conditions. This study explores the early diagnostic experiences of school-aged children with ASD using survey data from a large probability-based national sample. Multivariate linear regressions…

Urban Delinquency and Substance Abuse. Initial Findings. Research Summary.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huizinga, David; Loeber, Rolf; Thornberry, Terence P.

In collaborative efforts three research teams have investigated the problems of urban delinquency and substance abuse in longitudinal studies that have gone on since 1986. The Denver Youth Study is a longitudinal survey that involves annual interviews with probability samples of five different birth cohorts and their parents from areas of Denver…

Relationships among Taiwanese Children's Computer Game Use, Academic Achievement and Parental Governing Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Duen-Yian; Cheng, Ching-Hsue

2016-01-01

This study examined the relationships among children's computer game use, academic achievement and parental governing approach to propose probable answers for the doubts of Taiwanese parents. 355 children (ages 11-14) were randomly sampled from 20 elementary schools in a typically urbanised county in Taiwan. Questionnaire survey (five questions)…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmidt, Edward G.; Hemen, Brian; Rogalla, Danielle

We have obtained VR photometry of 282 Cepheid variable star candidates from the northern part of the All Sky Automated Survey (ASAS). These together with data from the ASAS and the Northern Sky Variability Survey (NSVS) were used to redetermine the periods of the stars. We divided the stars into four groups based on location in a plot of mean color, (V-R), versus period. Two of the groups fell within the region of the diagram containing known type II Cepheids and yielded 14 new highly probable type II Cepheids. The properties of the remaining stars in these two groups aremore » discussed but their nature remains uncertain. Unexplained differences exist between the sample of stars studied here and a previous sample drawn from the NSVS by Akerlof et al. This suggests serious biases in the identification of variables in different surveys.« less

Evaluation of the status of anurans on a refuge in suburban Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brander, S.M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Eames, M.

2007-01-01

Because many anurans have well-defined breeding seasons and male anurans produce loud advertisement calls, surveys of these breeding choruses are believed to provide a dependable means of monitoring population trends. The Patuxent Research Refuge initiated such a calling survey in the spring of 1997, which uses volunteers to collect anuran (frog and toad) calling survey data. The primary goal of initiating the calling surveys at the Patuxent Refuge was to obtain baseline information on anuran populations, such as species occurrence, frequency of occurrence, and relative abundance over time. In this paper, we used the calling survey data to develop models for the ?proportion of area occupied? by individual anuran species, a method in which analysis is focused on the proportion of sites that are occupied by a species, instead of the number of individuals present in the population. This type of analysis is ideal for use in large-scale monitoring programs focused on species that are difficult to count, such as anurans or birds. We considered models for proportion of area occupied that allow for imperfect detection (that is, a species may be present but go undetected during sampling) by incorporating parameters that describe detection probability and the response of detection probability to various environmental and sampling covariates. Our results indicate that anuran populations on the Patuxent Research Refuge have high rates of occupancy compared to areas nearby and that extinction and colonization rates are stable. The potential uses for ?proportion of area occupied? analyses are far-reaching and will allow for more accurate quantification of data and better-informed management decisions for calling surveys on a larger scale.

Evaluation of the status of anurans on a refuge in suburban Maryland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brander, S.M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Eames, M.

2007-01-01

Because many anurans have well-defined breeding seasons and male anurans produce loud advertisement calls, surveys of these breeding choruses are believed to provide a dependable means of monitoring population trends. The Patuxent Research Refuge initiated such a calling survey in the spring of 1997, which uses volunteers to collect anuran (frog and toad) calling survey data. The primary goal of initiating the calling surveys at the Patuxent Refuge was to obtain baseline information on anuran populations, such as species occurrence, frequency of occurrence, and relative abundance over time. In this paper, we used the calling survey data to develop models for the "proportion of area occupied" by individual anuran species, a method in which analysis is focused on the proportion of sites that are occupied by a species, instead of the number of individuals present in the population. This type of analysis is ideal for use in large-scale monitoring programs focused on species that are difficult to count, such as anurans or birds. We considered models for proportion of area occupied that allow for imperfect detection (that is, a species may be present but go undetected during sampling) by incorporating parameters that describe detection probability and the response of detection probability to various environmental and sampling covariates. Our results indicate that anuran populations on the Patuxent Research Refuge have high rates of occupancy compared to areas nearby and that extinction and colonization rates are stable. The potential uses for "proportion of area occupied" analyses are far-reaching and will allow for more accurate quantification of data and better-informed management decisions for calling surveys on a larger scale. Copyright 2007 Society for the Study of Amphibians and Reptiles.

How long do the dead survive on the road? Carcass persistence probability and implications for road-kill monitoring surveys.

PubMed

Santos, Sara M; Carvalho, Filipe; Mira, António

2011-01-01

Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i) describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii) assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii) model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning) and lizards (in the afternoon), daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days) for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide conservation and transportation agencies with accurate numbers of road-kills, realistic mitigation measures, and detailed designs for road monitoring programs.

How Long Do the Dead Survive on the Road? Carcass Persistence Probability and Implications for Road-Kill Monitoring Surveys

PubMed Central

Santos, Sara M.; Carvalho, Filipe; Mira, António

2011-01-01

Background Road mortality is probably the best-known and visible impact of roads upon wildlife. Although several factors influence road-kill counts, carcass persistence time is considered the most important determinant underlying underestimates of road mortality. The present study aims to describe and model carcass persistence variability on the road for different taxonomic groups under different environmental conditions throughout the year; and also to assess the effect of sampling frequency on the relative variation in road-kill estimates registered within a survey. Methodology/Principal Findings Daily surveys of road-killed vertebrates were conducted over one year along four road sections with different traffic volumes. Survival analysis was then used to i) describe carcass persistence timings for overall and for specific animal groups; ii) assess optimal sampling designs according to research objectives; and iii) model the influence of road, animal and weather factors on carcass persistence probabilities. Most animal carcasses persisted on the road for the first day only, with some groups disappearing at very high rates. The advisable periodicity of road monitoring that minimizes bias in road mortality estimates is daily monitoring for bats (in the morning) and lizards (in the afternoon), daily monitoring for toads, small birds, small mammals, snakes, salamanders, and lagomorphs; 1 day-interval (alternate days) for large birds, birds of prey, hedgehogs, and freshwater turtles; and 2 day-interval for carnivores. Multiple factors influenced the persistence probabilities of vertebrate carcasses on the road. Overall, the persistence was much lower for small animals, on roads with lower traffic volumes, for carcasses located on road lanes, and during humid conditions and high temperatures during the wet season and dry seasons, respectively. Conclusion/Significance The guidance given here on monitoring frequencies is particularly relevant to provide conservation and transportation agencies with accurate numbers of road-kills, realistic mitigation measures, and detailed designs for road monitoring programs. PMID:21980437

Multi-scale occupancy estimation and modelling using multiple detection methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, James D.; Bailey, Larissa L.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Talancy, Neil W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Gilbert, Andrew T.; Annand, Elizabeth M.; Husband, Thomas P.; Hines, James E.

2008-01-01

Occupancy estimation and modelling based on detection–nondetection data provide an effective way of exploring change in a species’ distribution across time and space in cases where the species is not always detected with certainty. Today, many monitoring programmes target multiple species, or life stages within a species, requiring the use of multiple detection methods. When multiple methods or devices are used at the same sample sites, animals can be detected by more than one method.We develop occupancy models for multiple detection methods that permit simultaneous use of data from all methods for inference about method-specific detection probabilities. Moreover, the approach permits estimation of occupancy at two spatial scales: the larger scale corresponds to species’ use of a sample unit, whereas the smaller scale corresponds to presence of the species at the local sample station or site.We apply the models to data collected on two different vertebrate species: striped skunks Mephitis mephitis and red salamanders Pseudotriton ruber. For striped skunks, large-scale occupancy estimates were consistent between two sampling seasons. Small-scale occupancy probabilities were slightly lower in the late winter/spring when skunks tend to conserve energy, and movements are limited to males in search of females for breeding. There was strong evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for skunks. As anticipated, large- and small-scale occupancy areas completely overlapped for red salamanders. The analyses provided weak evidence of method-specific detection probabilities for this species.Synthesis and applications. Increasingly, many studies are utilizing multiple detection methods at sampling locations. The modelling approach presented here makes efficient use of detections from multiple methods to estimate occupancy probabilities at two spatial scales and to compare detection probabilities associated with different detection methods. The models can be viewed as another variation of Pollock's robust design and may be applicable to a wide variety of scenarios where species occur in an area but are not always near the sampled locations. The estimation approach is likely to be especially useful in multispecies conservation programmes by providing efficient estimates using multiple detection devices and by providing device-specific detection probability estimates for use in survey design.

Watershed-based survey designs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detenbeck, N.E.; Cincotta, D.; Denver, J.M.; Greenlee, S.K.; Olsen, A.R.; Pitchford, A.M.

2005-01-01

Watershed-based sampling design and assessment tools help serve the multiple goals for water quality monitoring required under the Clean Water Act, including assessment of regional conditions to meet Section 305(b), identification of impaired water bodies or watersheds to meet Section 303(d), and development of empirical relationships between causes or sources of impairment and biological responses. Creation of GIS databases for hydrography, hydrologically corrected digital elevation models, and hydrologic derivatives such as watershed boundaries and upstream–downstream topology of subcatchments would provide a consistent seamless nationwide framework for these designs. The elements of a watershed-based sample framework can be represented either as a continuous infinite set defined by points along a linear stream network, or as a discrete set of watershed polygons. Watershed-based designs can be developed with existing probabilistic survey methods, including the use of unequal probability weighting, stratification, and two-stage frames for sampling. Case studies for monitoring of Atlantic Coastal Plain streams, West Virginia wadeable streams, and coastal Oregon streams illustrate three different approaches for selecting sites for watershed-based survey designs.

A double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Fallon, F.W.; Fallon, J.E.; Heglund, P.J.

2000-01-01

Although point counts are frequently used in ornithological studies, basic assumptions about detection probabilities often are untested. We apply a double-observer approach developed to estimate detection probabilities for aerial surveys (Cook and Jacobson 1979) to avian point counts. At each point count, a designated 'primary' observer indicates to another ('secondary') observer all birds detected. The secondary observer records all detections of the primary observer as well as any birds not detected by the primary observer. Observers alternate primary and secondary roles during the course of the survey. The approach permits estimation of observer-specific detection probabilities and bird abundance. We developed a set of models that incorporate different assumptions about sources of variation (e.g. observer, bird species) in detection probability. Seventeen field trials were conducted, and models were fit to the resulting data using program SURVIV. Single-observer point counts generally miss varying proportions of the birds actually present, and observer and bird species were found to be relevant sources of variation in detection probabilities. Overall detection probabilities (probability of being detected by at least one of the two observers) estimated using the double-observer approach were very high (>0.95), yielding precise estimates of avian abundance. We consider problems with the approach and recommend possible solutions, including restriction of the approach to fixed-radius counts to reduce the effect of variation in the effective radius of detection among various observers and to provide a basis for using spatial sampling to estimate bird abundance on large areas of interest. We believe that most questions meriting the effort required to carry out point counts also merit serious attempts to estimate detection probabilities associated with the counts. The double-observer approach is a method that can be used for this purpose.

Inventory of forest resources (including water) by multi-level sampling. [nine northern Virginia coastal plain counties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldrich, R. C.; Dana, R. W.; Roberts, E. H. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. A stratified random sample using LANDSAT band 5 and 7 panchromatic prints resulted in estimates of water in counties with sampling errors less than + or - 9% (67% probability level). A forest inventory using a four band LANDSAT color composite resulted in estimates of forest area by counties that were within + or - 6.7% and + or - 3.7% respectively (67% probability level). Estimates of forest area for counties by computer assisted techniques were within + or - 21% of operational forest survey figures and for all counties the difference was only one percent. Correlations of airborne terrain reflectance measurements with LANDSAT radiance verified a linear atmospheric model with an additive (path radiance) term and multiplicative (transmittance) term. Coefficients of determination for 28 of the 32 modeling attempts, not adverseley affected by rain shower occurring between the times of LANDSAT passage and aircraft overflights, exceeded 0.83.

Results of the U.S. Geological Survey's Analytical Evaluation Program for standard reference samples: T-155 (trace constituents), M-148 (major constituents), N-59 (nutrient constituents), N-60 (nutrient constituents), P-31 (low ionic strength constituents), GWT-4 (ground-water trace constituents) and Hg-27 (Mercury) distributed in September 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farrar, Jerry W.

1999-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for seven standard reference samples -- T-155 (trace constituents), M-148 (major constituents), N-59 (nutrient constituents), N-60 (nutrient constituents), P-31 (low ionic strength constituents), GWT-4 (ground-water trace constituents), and Hg- 27 (mercury) -- which were distributed in September 1998 to 162 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 136 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the seven reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the seven standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Report on the U.S. Geological Survey's evaluation program for standard reference samples distributed in October 1993 : T-127 (trace constituents), M-128 (major constituents), N-40 (nutrients), N-41 (nutrients), P-21 (low ionic strength), Hg-17 (mercury), AMW-3 (acid mine water), and WW-1 (whole water)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, H.K.; Farrar, J.W.

1994-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for eight standard reference samples--T-127 (trace constituents), M-128 (major constituents), N-40 (nutrients), N-41 (nutrients), P-21 (low ionic strength), Hg-17 (mercury), AMW-3 (acid mine water), and WW-1 (whole water)--that were distributed in October 1993 to 158 laboratories registered in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 145 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to: overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the eight reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the eight standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

GRANITE FIORDS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, ALASKA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Henry C.; Pittman, Tom L.

1984-01-01

Mineral surveys of the Granite Fiords Wilderness study area revealed areas with probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential. In the northeastern sector, areas of probable and substantiated resource potential for gold, sivler, and base metals in small, locally high grade vein and disseminated deposits occur in recrystallized Mesozoic volcanic, sedimentary, and intrusive rocks. In the central part, areas of probable resource potential for gold, silver, copper, and zinc in disseminated and locally massive sulfide deposits occur in undated pelitic paragneiss roof pendants. A molybdenite-bearing quartz vein has been prospected in western Granite Fiords, and molybdenum also occurs along with other metals in veins in the northeastern sector and in geochemical samples collected from areas where there is probable resource potential for low-grade porphyry molybdenum deposits in several Cenozoic plutons. No energy resource potential was identified in the course of this study.

Indexing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons in an impoundment of the lower Columbia River from highly skewed trawling data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Counihan, T.D.; Miller, Allen I.; Parsley, M.J.

1999-01-01

The development of recruitment monitoring programs for age-0 white sturgeons Acipenser transmontanus is complicated by the statistical properties of catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data. We found that age-0 CPUE distributions from bottom trawl surveys violated assumptions of statistical procedures based on normal probability theory. Further, no single data transformation uniformly satisfied these assumptions because CPUE distribution properties varied with the sample mean (??(CPUE)). Given these analytic problems, we propose that an additional index of age-0 white sturgeon relative abundance, the proportion of positive tows (Ep), be used to estimate sample sizes before conducting age-0 recruitment surveys and to evaluate statistical hypothesis tests comparing the relative abundance of age-0 white sturgeons among years. Monte Carlo simulations indicated that Ep was consistently more precise than ??(CPUE), and because Ep is binomially rather than normally distributed, surveys can be planned and analyzed without violating the assumptions of procedures based on normal probability theory. However, we show that Ep may underestimate changes in relative abundance at high levels and confound our ability to quantify responses to management actions if relative abundance is consistently high. If data suggest that most samples will contain age-0 white sturgeons, estimators of relative abundance other than Ep should be considered. Because Ep may also obscure correlations to climatic and hydrologic variables if high abundance levels are present in time series data, we recommend ??(CPUE) be used to describe relations to environmental variables. The use of both Ep and ??(CPUE) will facilitate the evaluation of hypothesis tests comparing relative abundance levels and correlations to variables affecting age-0 recruitment. Estimated sample sizes for surveys should therefore be based on detecting predetermined differences in Ep, but data necessary to calculate ??(CPUE) should also be collected.

The 2-10 keV unabsorbed luminosity function of AGN from the LSS, CDFS, and COSMOS surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranalli, P.; Koulouridis, E.; Georgantopoulos, I.; Fotopoulou, S.; Hsu, L.-T.; Salvato, M.; Comastri, A.; Pierre, M.; Cappelluti, N.; Carrera, F. J.; Chiappetti, L.; Clerc, N.; Gilli, R.; Iwasawa, K.; Pacaud, F.; Paltani, S.; Plionis, E.; Vignali, C.

2016-05-01

The XMM-Large scale structure (XMM-LSS), XMM-Cosmological evolution survey (XMM-COSMOS), and XMM-Chandra deep field south (XMM-CDFS) surveys are complementary in terms of sky coverage and depth. Together, they form a clean sample with the least possible variance in instrument effective areas and point spread function. Therefore this is one of the best samples available to determine the 2-10 keV luminosity function of active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their evolution. The samples and the relevant corrections for incompleteness are described. A total of 2887 AGN is used to build the LF in the luminosity interval 1042-1046 erg s-1 and in the redshift interval 0.001-4. A new method to correct for absorption by considering the probability distribution for the column density conditioned on the hardness ratio is presented. The binned luminosity function and its evolution is determined with a variant of the Page-Carrera method, which is improved to include corrections for absorption and to account for the full probability distribution of photometric redshifts. Parametric models, namely a double power law with luminosity and density evolution (LADE) or luminosity-dependent density evolution (LDDE), are explored using Bayesian inference. We introduce the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) to compare the models and estimate their predictive power. Our data are best described by the LADE model, as hinted by the WAIC indicator. We also explore the recently proposed 15-parameter extended LDDE model and find that this extension is not supported by our data. The strength of our method is that it provides unabsorbed, non-parametric estimates, credible intervals for luminosity function parameters, and a model choice based on predictive power for future data. Based on observations obtained with XMM-Newton, an ESA science mission with instruments and contributions directly funded by ESA member states and NASA.Tables with the samples of the posterior probability distributions are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/590/A80

Sex and Gender Diversity Among Transgender Persons in Ontario, Canada: Results From a Respondent-Driven Sampling Survey

PubMed Central

Scheim, Ayden I.; Bauer, Greta R.

2015-01-01

Recent estimates suggest that as many as 1 in 200 adults may be trans (transgender, transsexual, or transitioned). Knowledge about dimensions of sex and gender in trans populations is crucial to development of inclusive policy, practice, and research, but limited data have been available, particularly from probability samples. The Trans PULSE community-based research project surveyed trans Ontarians (n = 433) in 2009–2010 using respondent-driven sampling. Frequencies were weighted by recruitment probability to produce estimates for the networked Ontario trans population. An estimated 30% of trans Ontarians were living their day-to-day lives in their birth gender, and 23% were living in their felt gender with no medical intervention. In all, 42% were using hormones, while 15% of male-to-female spectrum persons had undergone vaginoplasty and 0.4% of female-to-male spectrum persons had had phalloplasty. Of those living in their felt gender, 59% had begun to do so within the past four years. A minority of trans Ontarians reported a linear transition from one sex to another, yet such a trajectory is often assumed to be the norm. Accounting for this observed diversity, we recommend policy and practice changes to increase social inclusion and service access for trans persons, regardless of transition status. PMID:24750105

Sex and gender diversity among transgender persons in Ontario, Canada: results from a respondent-driven sampling survey.

PubMed

Scheim, Ayden I; Bauer, Greta R

2015-01-01

Recent estimates suggest that as many as 1 in 200 adults may be trans (transgender, transsexual, or transitioned). Knowledge about dimensions of sex and gender in trans populations is crucial to development of inclusive policy, practice, and research, but limited data have been available, particularly from probability samples. The Trans PULSE community-based research project surveyed trans Ontarians (n=433) in 2009-2010 using respondent-driven sampling. Frequencies were weighted by recruitment probability to produce estimates for the networked Ontario trans population. An estimated 30% of trans Ontarians were living their day-to-day lives in their birth gender, and 23% were living in their felt gender with no medical intervention. In all, 42% were using hormones, while 15% of male-to-female spectrum persons had undergone vaginoplasty and 0.4% of female-to-male spectrum persons had had phalloplasty. Of those living in their felt gender, 59% had begun to do so within the past four years. A minority of trans Ontarians reported a linear transition from one sex to another, yet such a trajectory is often assumed to be the norm. Accounting for this observed diversity, we recommend policy and practice changes to increase social inclusion and service access for trans persons, regardless of transition status.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

Prevalence and correlates of depression among new U.S. immigrants.

PubMed

Wong, Eunice C; Miles, Jeremy N V

2014-06-01

Although immigrants comprise one of the fastest growing segments of society, information on their adjustment to life in the US remains limited. The present study examined the prevalence of depression and associated correlates among a national sample of immigrants newly admitted to legal permanent residence to the US. Data were derived from the baseline adult cohort of the New Immigrant Survey, a national representative sample of immigrants who had obtained legal permanent residence between May and November 2003. Approximately 3% of respondents met criteria for probable depression in the past 12 months. Respondents who were female, younger in age, in the US for a longer period of time, and exposed to political violence in their country of origin were more likely to meet criteria for probable depression. Both pre-immigration and resettlement related factors were associated with probable depression. Further research is needed to better understand how processes in the country of origin and in the resettlement country influence the adjustment of immigrants.

Manganese recycling in the United States in 1998

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Thomas S.

2003-01-01

This report presents the results of the U.S. Geological Survey's analytical evaluation program for six standard reference samples -- T-163 (trace constituents), M-156 (major constituents), N-67 (nutrient constituents), N-68 (nutrient constituents), P-35 (low ionic strength constituents), and Hg-31 (mercury) -- that were distributed in October 2000 to 126 laboratories enrolled in the U.S. Geological Survey sponsored interlaboratory testing program. Analytical data that were received from 122 of the laboratories were evaluated with respect to overall laboratory performance and relative laboratory performance for each analyte in the six reference samples. Results of these evaluations are presented in tabular form. Also presented are tables and graphs summarizing the analytical data provided by each laboratory for each analyte in the six standard reference samples. The most probable value for each analyte was determined using nonparametric statistics.

A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

2000-01-01

We adapted a removal model to estimate detection probability during point count surveys. The model assumes one factor influencing detection during point counts is the singing frequency of birds. This may be true for surveys recording forest songbirds when most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. We used time intervals of 2, 5, and 10 min to develop a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds during such surveys. We applied this technique to data from bird surveys conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. The overall detection probability for all birds was 75%. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren and Acadian Flycatcher had high detection probabilities (about 90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. This method of estimating detectability during point count surveys offers a promising new approach to using count data to address questions of the bird abundance, density, and population trends.

SAVAGE RUN WILDERNESS, WYOMING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCallum, M.E.; Kluender, Steven E.

1984-01-01

Mineral evaluation and related surveys were conducted in the Savage Run Wilderness in Wyoming and results of these studies indicate probable mineral-resource potential in four areas. Gold and (or) silver mineralization in veins associated with faults was found in two areas; all known occurrences inside the wilderness are very small in size. Slightly anomalous values of platinum, palladium, and nickel were recorded from rock-chip and stream- sediment samples from the southeast portion of the wilderness where layered mafic rocks predominate, and a probable resource potential exists for platinum, palladium, and nickel. An area of sheared rocks in the northeastern corner of the wilderness has a probable resource potential for copper. The nature of the geologic terrane precludes the occurrence of organic fuels.

Trends in Serious Emotional Disturbance among Youths Exposed to Hurricane Katrina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLaughlin, Katie A.; Fairbank, John A.; Gruber, Michael J.; Jones, Russell T.; Osofsky, Joy D.; Pfefferbaum, Betty; Sampson, Nancy A.; Kessler, Ronald C.

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine patterns and predictors of trends in "DSM-IV" serious emotional disturbance (SED) among youths exposed to Hurricane Katrina. Method: A probability sample of adult pre-hurricane residents of the areas affected by Katrina completed baseline and follow-up telephone surveys 18 to 27 months post-hurricane and 12 to 18…

The Emotional and Behavioral Impact of Terrorism on Children: Results from a National Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, Bradley D.; Jaycox, Lisa H.; Elliott, Marc N.; Collins, Rebecca; Berry, Sandra; Marshall, Grant N.; Klein, David J.; Schuster, Mark A.

2004-01-01

To examine the emotional and behavioral impact of terrorism on children across the country, telephone interviews were conducted with a national probability sample of 395 parents of 5- to 18-year-old children from November 9 to 28, 2001. Parents reported on child emotional and behavioral reactions to terrorism, parent-child discussions about…

Marital Satisfaction among African Americans and Black Caribbeans: Findings from the National Survey of American Life

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryant, Chalandra M.; Taylor, Robert Joseph; Lincoln, Karen D.; Chatters, Linda M.; Jackson, James S.

2008-01-01

This study examines the correlates of marital satisfaction using data from a national probability sample of African Americans (N = 962) and Black Caribbeans (N = 560). Findings reveal differences between African Americans and Black Caribbeans, and men and women within those groups, in the predictors of marital satisfaction. Black Caribbean women…

Attitudes toward Science among Grades 3 through 12 Arab Students in Qatar: Findings from a Cross-Sectional National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Said, Ziad; Summers, Ryan; Abd-El-Khalick, Fouad; Wang, Shuai

2016-01-01

This study assessed students' attitudes toward science in Qatar. A cross-sectional, nationwide probability sample representing all students enrolled in grades 3 through 12 in the various types of schools in Qatar completed the "Arabic Speaking Students' Attitudes toward Science Survey" (ASSASS). The validity and reliability of the…

Age of Alcohol-Dependence Onset: Associations with Severity of Dependence and Seeking Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hingson, Ralph W.; Heeren, Timothy; Winter, Michael R.

2007-01-01

Objective: We explored whether people who become alcohol dependent at younger ages are more likely to seek alcohol-related help or treatment or experience chronic relapsing dependence. Methods: In 2001-2002 the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism completed a face-to-face interview survey with a multistage probability sample of 43…

Effects of Statewide Job Losses on Adolescent Suicide-Related Behaviors

PubMed Central

Ananat, Elizabeth Oltmans; Gibson-Davis, Christina M.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We investigated the impact of statewide job loss on adolescent suicide-related behaviors. Methods. We used 1997 to 2009 data from the Youth Risk Behavior Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate the effects of statewide job loss on adolescents’ suicidal ideation, suicide attempts, and suicide plans. Probit regression models controlled for demographic characteristics, state of residence, and year; samples were divided according to gender and race/ethnicity. Results. Statewide job losses during the year preceding the survey increased girls’ probability of suicidal ideation and suicide plans and non-Hispanic Black adolescents’ probability of suicidal ideation, suicide plans, and suicide attempts. Job losses among 1% of a state’s working-age population increased the probability of girls and Blacks reporting suicide-related behaviors by 2 to 3 percentage points. Job losses did not affect the suicide-related behaviors of boys, non-Hispanic Whites, or Hispanics. The results were robust to the inclusion of other state economic characteristics. Conclusions. As are adults, adolescents are affected by economic downturns. Our findings show that statewide job loss increases adolescent girls’ and non-Hispanic Blacks’ suicide-related behaviors. PMID:25122027

Strong lensing probability in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Da-Ming

2008-01-01

We recalculate the strong lensing probability as a function of the image separation in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) cosmology, which is a relativistic version of MOND (MOdified Newtonian Dynamics). The lens is modeled by the Hernquist profile. We assume an open cosmology with Ωb = 0.04 and ΩΛ = 0.5 and three different kinds of interpolating functions. Two different galaxy stellar mass functions (GSMF) are adopted: PHJ (Panter, Heavens and Jimenez 2004 Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 355 764) determined from SDSS data release 1 and Fontana (Fontana et al 2006 Astron. Astrophys. 459 745) from GOODS-MUSIC catalog. We compare our results with both the predicted probabilities for lenses from singular isothermal sphere galaxy halos in LCDM (Lambda cold dark matter) with a Schechter-fit velocity function, and the observational results for the well defined combined sample of the Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey (CLASS) and Jodrell Bank/Very Large Array Astrometric Survey (JVAS). It turns out that the interpolating function μ(x) = x/(1+x) combined with Fontana GSMF matches the results from CLASS/JVAS quite well.

A novel approach to surveying sturgeon using side-scan sonar and occupancy modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flowers, H. Jared; Hightower, Joseph E.

2013-01-01

Technological advances represent opportunities to enhance and supplement traditional fisheries sampling approaches. One example with growing importance for fisheries research is hydroacoustic technologies such as side-scan sonar. Advantages of side-scan sonar over traditional techniques include the ability to sample large areas efficiently and the potential to survey fish without physical handling-important for species of conservation concern, such as endangered sturgeons. Our objectives were to design an efficient survey methodology for sampling Atlantic Sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus by using side-scan sonar and to developmethods for analyzing these data. In North Carolina and South Carolina, we surveyed six rivers thought to contain varying abundances of sturgeon by using a combination of side-scan sonar, telemetry, and video cameras (i.e., to sample jumping sturgeon). Lower reaches of each river near the saltwater-freshwater interface were surveyed on three occasions (generally successive days), and we used occupancy modeling to analyze these data.We were able to detect sturgeon in five of six rivers by using these methods. Side-scan sonar was effective in detecting sturgeon, with estimated gear-specific detection probabilities ranging from 0.2 to 0.5 and river-specific occupancy estimates (per 2-km river segment) ranging from 0.0 to 0.8. Future extensions of this occupancy modeling framework will involve the use of side-scan sonar data to assess sturgeon habitat and abundance in different river systems.

Factors affecting detectability of river otters during sign surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jeffress, Mackenzie R.; Paukert, Craig P.; Sandercock, Brett K.; Gipson, Philip S.

2011-01-01

Sign surveys are commonly used to study and monitor wildlife species but may be flawed when surveys are conducted only once and cover short distances, which can lead to a lack of accountability for false absences. Multiple observers surveyed for river otter (Lontra canadensis) scat and tracks along stream and reservoir shorelines at 110 randomly selected sites in eastern Kansas from January to April 2008 and 2009 to determine if detection probability differed among substrates, sign types, observers, survey lengths, and near access points. We estimated detection probabilities (p) of river otters using occupancy models in Program PRESENCE. Mean detection probability for a 400-m survey was highest in mud substrates (p = 0.60) and lowest in snow (p = 0.18) and leaf litter substrates (p = 0.27). Scat had a higher detection probability (p = 0.53) than tracks (p = 0.18), and experienced observers had higher detection probabilities (p < 0.71) than novice observers (p < 0.55). Detection probabilities increased almost 3-fold as survey length increased from 200 m to 1,000 m, and otter sign was not concentrated near access points. After accounting for imperfect detection, our estimates of otter site occupancy based on a 400-m survey increased >3-fold, providing further evidence of the potential negative bias that can occur in estimates from sign surveys when imperfect detection is not addressed. Our study identifies areas for improvement in sign survey methodologies and results are applicable for sign surveys commonly used for many species across a range of habitats.

The DOHA algorithm: a new recipe for cotrending large-scale transiting exoplanet survey light curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mislis, D.; Pyrzas, S.; Alsubai, K. A.; Tsvetanov, Z. I.; Vilchez, N. P. E.

2017-03-01

We present DOHA, a new algorithm for cotrending photometric light curves obtained by transiting exoplanet surveys. The algorithm employs a novel approach to the traditional 'differential photometry' technique, by selecting the most suitable comparison star for each target light curve, using a two-step correlation search. Extensive tests on real data reveal that DOHA corrects both intra-night variations and long-term systematics affecting the data. Statistical studies conducted on a sample of ∼9500 light curves from the Qatar Exoplanet Survey reveal that DOHA-corrected light curves show an rms improvement of a factor of ∼2, compared to the raw light curves. In addition, we show that the transit detection probability in our sample can increase considerably, even up to a factor of 7, after applying DOHA.

Source Detection with Bayesian Inference on ROSAT All-Sky Survey Data Sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guglielmetti, F.; Voges, W.; Fischer, R.; Boese, G.; Dose, V.

2004-07-01

We employ Bayesian inference for the joint estimation of sources and background on ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS) data. The probabilistic method allows for detection improvement of faint extended celestial sources compared to the Standard Analysis Software System (SASS). Background maps were estimated in a single step together with the detection of sources without pixel censoring. Consistent uncertainties of background and sources are provided. The source probability is evaluated for single pixels as well as for pixel domains to enhance source detection of weak and extended sources.

An empirical Bayes approach to analyzing recurring animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1989-01-01

Recurring estimates of the size of animal populations are often required by biologists or wildlife managers. Because of cost or other constraints, estimates frequently lack the accuracy desired but cannot readily be improved by additional sampling. This report proposes a statistical method employing empirical Bayes (EB) estimators as alternatives to those customarily used to estimate population size, and evaluates them by a subsampling experiment on waterfowl surveys. EB estimates, especially a simple limited-translation version, were more accurate and provided shorter confidence intervals with greater coverage probabilities than customary estimates.

Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew

2006-01-01

Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

Accounting for selection bias in association studies with complex survey data.

PubMed

Wirth, Kathleen E; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J

2014-05-01

Obtaining representative information from hidden and hard-to-reach populations is fundamental to describe the epidemiology of many sexually transmitted diseases, including HIV. Unfortunately, simple random sampling is impractical in these settings, as no registry of names exists from which to sample the population at random. However, complex sampling designs can be used, as members of these populations tend to congregate at known locations, which can be enumerated and sampled at random. For example, female sex workers may be found at brothels and street corners, whereas injection drug users often come together at shooting galleries. Despite the logistical appeal, complex sampling schemes lead to unequal probabilities of selection, and failure to account for this differential selection can result in biased estimates of population averages and relative risks. However, standard techniques to account for selection can lead to substantial losses in efficiency. Consequently, researchers implement a variety of strategies in an effort to balance validity and efficiency. Some researchers fully or partially account for the survey design, whereas others do nothing and treat the sample as a realization of the population of interest. We use directed acyclic graphs to show how certain survey sampling designs, combined with subject-matter considerations unique to individual exposure-outcome associations, can induce selection bias. Finally, we present a novel yet simple maximum likelihood approach for analyzing complex survey data; this approach optimizes statistical efficiency at no cost to validity. We use simulated data to illustrate this method and compare it with other analytic techniques.

Asteroid families - An initial search

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, James G.

1992-01-01

A stereo examination was conducted for clusters in three-dimensional proper element space within a sample of both numbered and faint Palomar-Leiden Survey (PLS) asteroids. The clusters were then objectively filtered for small Poisson probability of chance occurrence; 104 were accepted as families with 4- to 12-member populations, and are interpreted as impact-generated. Structure is common in the well-populated families: the better-sampled families are accordingly discussed in terms of their geometry and taxonomy. Some families are very rich in faint PLS members.

Communicating Disclosure Risk in Informed Consent Statements

PubMed Central

Singer, Eleanor; Couper, Mick P.

2011-01-01

For several years, we have experimented with various ways of communicating disclosure risk and harm to respondents in order to determine how these affect their willingness to participate in surveys. These experiments, which used vignettes administered to an online panel as well as a mail survey sent to a national probability sample, have demonstrated that (a) the probability of disclosure alone has no apparent effect on people's willingness to participate in the survey described, (b) the sensitivity of the survey topic has such an effect, and (c) making explicit the possible harms that might result from disclosure also reduces willingness to participate, in both the vignette and the mail experiments. As a last study in this series, we experimented with different ways of describing disclosure risk in informed consent statements that might more plausibly be used in real surveys, again using vignettes administered to an online panel. As suggested by our earlier work, we found that the precise wording of the confidentiality assurance had little effect on respondents' stated willingness to participate in the hypothetical survey described. However, the experimental manipulations did have some effect on perceptions of the risks and benefits of participation, suggesting that they are processed by respondents. And, as we have found in our previous studies, the topic of the survey has a consistent and statistically significant effect on stated willingness to participate. We explore some implications of these findings for researchers seeking to provide adequate information to potential survey respondents without alarming them unnecessarily. PMID:20831416

Identifying Microlensing Events in Large, Non-Uniformly Sampled Surveys: The Case of the Palomar Transient Factory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Agueros, M. A.; Fournier, A.; Street, R.; Ofek, E.; Levitan, D. B.; PTF Collaboration

2013-01-01

Many current photometric, time-domain surveys are driven by specific goals such as searches for supernovae or transiting exoplanets, or studies of stellar variability. These goals in turn set the cadence with which individual fields are re-imaged. In the case of the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), several such sub-surveys are being conducted in parallel, leading to extremely non-uniform sampling over the survey's nearly 20,000 sq. deg. footprint. While the typical 7.26 sq. deg. PTF field has been imaged 20 times in R-band, ~2300 sq. deg. have been observed more than 100 times. We use the existing PTF data 6.4x107 light curves) to study the trade-off that occurs when searching for microlensing events when one has access to a large survey footprint with irregular sampling. To examine the probability that microlensing events can be recovered in these data, we also test previous statistics used on uniformly sampled data to identify variables and transients. We find that one such statistic, the von Neumann ratio, performs best for identifying simulated microlensing events. We develop a selection method using this statistic and apply it to data from all PTF fields with >100 observations to uncover a number of interesting candidate events. This work can help constrain all-sky event rate predictions and tests microlensing signal recovery in large datasets, both of which will be useful to future wide-field, time-domain surveys such as the LSST.

Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

PubMed

Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

2015-05-20

We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Maximizing detection probability of Wetland-dependent birds during point-count surveys in northwestern Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, C.P.; Conway, C.J.; Smith, B.S.; Lewis, T.E.

2008-01-01

We conducted 262 call-broadcast point-count surveys (1-6 replicate surveys on each of 62 points) using standardized North American Marsh Bird Monitoring Protocols between 31 May and 7 July 2006 on St. Vincent National Wildlife Refuge, an island off the northwest coast of Florida. We conducted double-blind multiple-observer surveys, paired morning and evening surveys, and paired morning and night surveys to examine the influence of call-broadcast and time of day on detection probability. Observer detection probability for all species pooled was 75% and was similar between passive (69%) and call-broadcast (65%) periods. Detection probability was higher on morning than evening (t = 3.0, P = 0.030) or night (t = 3.4, P = 0.042) surveys when we pooled all species. Detection probability was higher (but not significant for all species) on morning compared to evening or night surveys for all five focal species detected on surveys: Least Bittern (Ixobrychus exilis), Clapper Rail (Rallus longirostris), Purple Gallinule (Porphyrula martinica), Common Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus), and American Coot (Fulica americana). We detected more Least Bitterns (t = 2.4, P = 0.064) and Common Moorhens (t = 2.8, P = 0.026) on morning than evening surveys, and more Clapper Rails (t = 5.1, P = 0.014) on morning than night surveys.

Evaluating cost-efficiency and accuracy of hunter harvest survey designs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lukacs, P.M.; Gude, J.A.; Russell, R.E.; Ackerman, B.B.

2011-01-01

Effective management of harvested wildlife often requires accurate estimates of the number of animals harvested annually by hunters. A variety of techniques exist to obtain harvest data, such as hunter surveys, check stations, mandatory reporting requirements, and voluntary reporting of harvest. Agencies responsible for managing harvested wildlife such as deer (Odocoileus spp.), elk (Cervus elaphus), and pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) are challenged with balancing the cost of data collection versus the value of the information obtained. We compared precision, bias, and relative cost of several common strategies, including hunter self-reporting and random sampling, for estimating hunter harvest using a realistic set of simulations. Self-reporting with a follow-up survey of hunters who did not report produces the best estimate of harvest in terms of precision and bias, but it is also, by far, the most expensive technique. Self-reporting with no followup survey risks very large bias in harvest estimates, and the cost increases with increased response rate. Probability-based sampling provides a substantial cost savings, though accuracy can be affected by nonresponse bias. We recommend stratified random sampling with a calibration estimator used to reweight the sample based on the proportions of hunters responding in each covariate category as the best option for balancing cost and accuracy. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society.

Distress among matriculating medical students relative to the general population.

PubMed

Brazeau, Chantal M L R; Shanafelt, Tait; Durning, Steven J; Massie, F Stanford; Eacker, Anne; Moutier, Christine; Satele, Daniel V; Sloan, Jeff A; Dyrbye, Liselotte N

2014-11-01

Many medical students experience distress during medical school. If matriculating medical students (MMSs) begin training with similar or better mental health than age-similar controls, this would support existing concerns about the negative impact of training on student well-being. The authors compared mental health indicators of MMSs versus those of a probability-based sample of the general U.S. population. In 2012 all MMSs at six U.S. medical schools were invited to participate in a survey during orientation. The research team surveyed a probability-based sample of U.S. individuals using the same questions in 2011. Individuals from the population sample who completed a four-year college degree and matched within the appropriate age strata (< 30, 31-35, 36-40, > 40) were compared with MMSs. Surveys included demographics and validated instruments to measure burnout; depression symptoms; and mental, emotional, physical, and overall of quality of life (QOL). Demographic characteristics of the 582/938 (62%) responding MMSs were similar to U.S. MMSs. Relative to 546 age-similar college graduates, MMSs had lower rates of burnout (27.3% versus 37.3%, P < .001) and depression symptoms (26.2% versus 42.4%, P < .0001) and higher scores across the four QOL domains assessed relative to controls (all P < .0001). These findings persisted on multivariate analysis after adjusting for age, sex, relationship status, and race/ethnicity. These findings, along with high rates of distress reported in medical students and residents, support concerns that the training process and environment contribute to the deterioration of mental health in developing physicians.

Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

PubMed Central

Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

2014-01-01

Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web panels provided appreciably biased estimates. The differences seen with Natsal-3 CASI questions, where mode effects may be similar, suggest a selection bias in the Web surveys. The use of more complex quotas may lead to some improvement, but many estimates are still likely to differ. Volunteer Web panels are not recommended if accurate prevalence estimates for the general population are a key objective. PMID:25488851

Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

2008-01-01

Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

Standardizing the double-observer survey method for estimating mountain ungulate prey of the endangered snow leopard.

PubMed

Suryawanshi, Kulbhushansingh R; Bhatnagar, Yash Veer; Mishra, Charudutt

2012-07-01

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.

Household Microbial Water Quality Testing in a Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey: Evaluation of the Compartment Bag Test for Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Wang, Alice; McMahan, Lanakila; Rutstein, Shea; Stauber, Christine; Reyes, Jorge; Sobsey, Mark D

2017-04-01

AbstractThe Joint Monitoring Program relies on household surveys to classify access to improved water sources instead of measuring microbiological quality. The aim of this research was to pilot a novel test for Escherichia coli quantification of household drinking water in the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Peru. In the Compartment Bag Test (CBT), a 100-mL water sample is supplemented with chromogenic medium to support the growth of E. coli , poured into a bag with compartments, and incubated. A color change indicates E. coli growth, and the concentration of E. coli /100 mL is estimated as a most probable number. Triplicate water samples from 704 households were collected; one sample was analyzed in the field using the CBT, another replicate sample using the CBT was analyzed by reference laboratories, and one sample using membrane filtration (MF) was analyzed by reference laboratories. There were no statistically significant differences in E. coli concentrations between the field and laboratory CBT results, or when compared with MF results. These results suggest that the CBT for E. coli is an effective method to quantify fecal bacteria in household drinking water. The CBT can be incorporated into DHS and other national household surveys as a direct measure of drinking water safety based on microbial quality to better document access to safe drinking water.

Household Microbial Water Quality Testing in a Peruvian Demographic and Health Survey: Evaluation of the Compartment Bag Test for Escherichia coli

PubMed Central

Wang, Alice; McMahan, Lanakila; Rutstein, Shea; Stauber, Christine; Reyes, Jorge; Sobsey, Mark D.

2017-01-01

The Joint Monitoring Program relies on household surveys to classify access to improved water sources instead of measuring microbiological quality. The aim of this research was to pilot a novel test for Escherichia coli quantification of household drinking water in the 2011 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Peru. In the Compartment Bag Test (CBT), a 100-mL water sample is supplemented with chromogenic medium to support the growth of E. coli, poured into a bag with compartments, and incubated. A color change indicates E. coli growth, and the concentration of E. coli/100 mL is estimated as a most probable number. Triplicate water samples from 704 households were collected; one sample was analyzed in the field using the CBT, another replicate sample using the CBT was analyzed by reference laboratories, and one sample using membrane filtration (MF) was analyzed by reference laboratories. There were no statistically significant differences in E. coli concentrations between the field and laboratory CBT results, or when compared with MF results. These results suggest that the CBT for E. coli is an effective method to quantify fecal bacteria in household drinking water. The CBT can be incorporated into DHS and other national household surveys as a direct measure of drinking water safety based on microbial quality to better document access to safe drinking water. PMID:28500818

Bed-Sediment Sampling and Analysis for Physical and Chemical Properties of the Lower Mississippi River near Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blanchard, Robert A.; Wagner, Daniel M.; Evans, Dennis A.

2010-01-01

In February 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Memphis District, investigated the presence of inorganic elements and organic compounds in bed sediments of the lower Mississippi River. Selected sites were located in the navigation channel near river miles 737, 773, and 790 near Memphis, Tennessee. Bed-sediment samples were collected using a Shipek grab sampler mounted to a boom crane with a motorized winch. Samples then were processed and shipped to the U.S. Geological Survey Sediment Laboratory in Rolla, Missouri, the USGS National Water Quality Laboratory in Denver, Colorado, and to TestAmerica Laboratory, Inc. in West Sacramento, California. Samples were analyzed for grain size, inorganic elements (including mercury), and organic compounds. Chemical results were tabulated and listed with sediment-quality guidelines and presented with the physical property results. All of the bed material samples collected during this investigation yielded concentrations that were less than the Consensus-Based Probable Effect Concentration guidelines. The physical properties were tabulated and listed using a standard U.S. Geological Survey scale of sizes by class for sediment analysis. All of the samples collected during this investigation indicated a percent composition mostly comprised of sand, ranging from less than 0.125 millimeters to less than 2 millimeters.

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey.

PubMed

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B S

2016-07-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quantity affects matching proportions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservatism often thought. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population-specific FST values for forensic STR markers: A worldwide survey

PubMed Central

Buckleton, John; Curran, James; Goudet, Jérôme; Taylor, Duncan; Thiery, Alexandre; Weir, B.S.

2016-01-01

The interpretation of matching between DNA profiles of a person of interest and an item of evidence is undertaken using population genetic models to predict the probability of matching by chance. Calculation of matching probabilities is straightforward if allelic probabilities are known, or can be estimated, in the relevant population. It is more often the case, however, that the relevant population has not been sampled and allele frequencies are available only from a broader collection of populations as might be represented in a national or regional database. Variation of allele probabilities among the relevant populations is quantified by the population structure quantity FST and this quanity affects matching propoptions. Matching within a population can be interpreted only with respect to matching between populations and we show here that FST, can be estimated from sample allelic matching proportions within and between populations. We report such estimates from data we extracted from 250 papers in the forensic literature, representing STR profiles at up to 24 loci from nearly 500,000 people in 446 different populations. The results suggest that theta values in current forensic use do not have the buffer of conservativism often thought. PMID:27082756

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogeley, Michael S.; Geller, Margaret J.; Park, Changbom; Huchra, John P.

1994-01-01

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Modeling the distribution of colonial species to improve estimation of plankton concentration in ballast water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajakaruna, Harshana; VandenByllaardt, Julie; Kydd, Jocelyn; Bailey, Sarah

2018-03-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set limits on allowable plankton concentrations in ballast water discharge to minimize aquatic invasions globally. Previous guidance on ballast water sampling and compliance decision thresholds was based on the assumption that probability distributions of plankton are Poisson when spatially homogenous, or negative binomial when heterogeneous. We propose a hierarchical probability model, which incorporates distributions at the level of particles (i.e., discrete individuals plus colonies per unit volume) and also within particles (i.e., individuals per particle) to estimate the average plankton concentration in ballast water. We examined the performance of the models using data for plankton in the size class ≥ 10 μm and < 50 μm, collected from five different depths of a ballast tank of a commercial ship in three independent surveys. We show that the data fit to the negative binomial and the hierarchical probability models equally well, with both models performing better than the Poisson model at the scale of our sampling. The hierarchical probability model, which accounts for both the individuals and the colonies in a sample, reduces the uncertainty associated with the concentration estimation, and improves the power of rejecting the decision on ship's compliance when a ship does not truly comply with the standard. We show examples of how to test ballast water compliance using the above models.

Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

2017-01-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

Age at First Drink, Drinking, Binge Drinking and DSM-5 Alcohol Use Disorder among Hispanic National Groups in the U.S.

PubMed Central

Caetano, Raul; Mills, Britain A.; Vaeth, Patrice A. C.; Reingle, Jennifer

2014-01-01

Background This paper examines age at first drink and adult drinking, binge drinking and DSM-5 alcohol use disorder (AUD) among U.S. Hispanic national groups. Methods Respondents come from two independent studies. The Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey used a multistage cluster sample design to interview 5,224 individuals 18 years of age and older selected from the household population in: Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Houston and Los Angeles. Respondents in the border area (N=1,307) constituted a household probability sample of Mexican Americans living on U.S. counties that border Mexico. In both surveys, data were collected during computer assisted interviews conducted in respondents' homes. The HABLAS and the border sample response rates were 76% and 67%, respectively. Results U.S. born Hispanics begin drinking at a younger age than those who are foreign born, independent of national group. Among foreign born Hispanics, age of arrival in the U.S. is not associated with age at first drink. Results support the hypothesis that a younger age at first drink is associated with a higher mean volume of drinking, a higher probability of bingeing and a higher probability of DSM-5 AUD. But the results do not show a clear pattern by which a particular national group would consistently show no associations or stronger associations between age at first drink and the alcohol-related outcomes under consideration. Conclusions An earlier age at first drinking is positively associated with heavier drinking patterns among U.S. Hispanics. However, as in other areas of alcohol epidemiology, here too there is considerable variation in age at first drink and drinking across Hispanic national groups. PMID:24689445

Integrating count and detection-nondetection data to model population dynamics.

PubMed

Zipkin, Elise F; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B; Wiens, J David; Thorson, James T; Davis, Raymond J; Grant, Evan H Campbell

2017-06-01

There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture-recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection-nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection-nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection-nondetection data (1995-2014) with newly collected count data (2015-2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Prevalence and Characteristics of Intimate Partner Violence in a Community Study of Chinese American Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Madelyn Hsiao-Rei

2006-01-01

A community probability-sampled survey was done of 181 Chinese American women to investigate the prevalence and nature of intimate partner violence (IPV) in Chinese Americans. Of participants, 42% knew a Chinese woman who had experienced IPV. Also, 14% had experienced IPV themselves in their lifetime (8% severe and 6% minor), 3% in the previous…

Building Commitment: An Examination of Learning Climate Congruence and the Affective Commitment of Academics in an Australian University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Southcombe, Amie; Fulop, Liz; Carter, Geoff; Cavanagh, Jillian

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between learning climate congruence and the affective commitment of university academics. The strategy of inquiry for this research is quantitative, involving a non-experimental design for the survey research. A non-probability sample of 900 academics from a large Australian university was…

Community Support for the Public Schools in a Large Metropolitan Area. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Ralph V.; And Others

An extensive survey was conducted in 1965 by a team of white and Negro interviewers in an application of ecological theory to a study of the support relationship between the community and its school system. Findings are based upon interview data from a probability sample of 931 respondents selected from the population of persons 21 years of age…

Maids or Mentors? The Effects of Live-In Foreign Domestic Workers on Children's Educational Achievement in Hong Kong

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tang, Sam Hak Kan; Yung, Linda Chor Wing

2016-01-01

This paper studies the effects of live-in foreign domestic workers (FDWs) on school children's educational outcomes using samples from two population censuses and a survey data set. The evidence consistently points to Filipino FDWs improving the educational outcomes of school children by decreasing their probability of late schooling or increasing…

A National Survey of Environmental Knowledge in High School Students: Levels of Knowledge and Related Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gambro, John S.; Switzky, Harvey N.

The objectives of this study are to assess the current environmental knowledge base in a national probability sample of American high school students, and examine the distribution of environmental knowledge across several variables which have been found to be related to environmental knowledge in previous research (e.g. education and gender).…

A Population-Based Study of Childhood Sexual Contact in China: Prevalence and Long-Term Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luo, Ye; Parish, William L.; Laumann, Edward O.

2008-01-01

Objectives: This study provides national estimates of the prevalence of childhood sexual contact and its association with sexual well-being and psychological distress among adults in China. Method: A national stratified probability sample of 1,519 women and 1,475 men aged 20-64 years in urban China completed a computer-administered survey in…

Reaching the Hard-to-Reach: A Probability Sampling Method for Assessing Prevalence of Driving under the Influence after Drinking in Alcohol Outlets

PubMed Central

De Boni, Raquel; do Nascimento Silva, Pedro Luis; Bastos, Francisco Inácio; Pechansky, Flavio; de Vasconcellos, Mauricio Teixeira Leite

2012-01-01

Drinking alcoholic beverages in places such as bars and clubs may be associated with harmful consequences such as violence and impaired driving. However, methods for obtaining probabilistic samples of drivers who drink at these places remain a challenge – since there is no a priori information on this mobile population – and must be continually improved. This paper describes the procedures adopted in the selection of a population-based sample of drivers who drank at alcohol selling outlets in Porto Alegre, Brazil, which we used to estimate the prevalence of intention to drive under the influence of alcohol. The sampling strategy comprises a stratified three-stage cluster sampling: 1) census enumeration areas (CEA) were stratified by alcohol outlets (AO) density and sampled with probability proportional to the number of AOs in each CEA; 2) combinations of outlets and shifts (COS) were stratified by prevalence of alcohol-related traffic crashes and sampled with probability proportional to their squared duration in hours; and, 3) drivers who drank at the selected COS were stratified by their intention to drive and sampled using inverse sampling. Sample weights were calibrated using a post-stratification estimator. 3,118 individuals were approached and 683 drivers interviewed, leading to an estimate that 56.3% (SE = 3,5%) of the drivers intended to drive after drinking in less than one hour after the interview. Prevalence was also estimated by sex and broad age groups. The combined use of stratification and inverse sampling enabled a good trade-off between resource and time allocation, while preserving the ability to generalize the findings. The current strategy can be viewed as a step forward in the efforts to improve surveys and estimation for hard-to-reach, mobile populations. PMID:22514620

Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections

PubMed Central

Fisher, Jason T.; Heim, Nicole; Code, Sandra; Paczkowski, John

2016-01-01

Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT). Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears’ range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error–arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample–has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012) and 76 (2013) sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation–which form the crux of management plans–require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species management and conservation actions are based. PMID:27603134

Chandipura virus infection causing encephalitis in a tribal population of Odisha in eastern India.

PubMed

Dwibedi, Bhagirathi; Sabat, Jyotsnamayee; Hazra, Rupenangshu K; Kumar, Anu; Dinesh, Diwakar Singh; Kar, Shantanu K

2015-01-01

The sudden death of 10 children in a tribal village of Kandhamal district, Odisha in eastern India led to this investigation. We conducted a door-to-door survey to identify cases. Antibodies for Chandipura, Japanese encephalitis, dengue, chikungunya and West Nile viruses were tested by ELISA in probable cases. Chandipura virus RNA was tested from both human blood samples and sand flies by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. We conducted vector surveys in domestic and peridomestic areas, and collected sand flies. Entomological investigations revealed the presence of Phlebotomus argentipes and Sergentomiya sp. Thirty-five patients presented with fever, 12 of them had altered sensorium including 4 who had convulsions. The blood samples of 21 patients were tested; four samples revealed Chandipura virusspecific IgM antibody. Chandipura virus infection causing encephalitis affected this tribal population in eastern India at 1212 m above sea level. Copyright 2015, NMJI.

Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Methods Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Results Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame compared to the dual-phone users in the landline frame. The overall weight effect for the first quarter of 2012 was 1.93 and the coefficient of variation of the weights was 0.96. The weight effects for 2012 were similar to, and in many cases less than, the effects found in the corresponding quarter of the 2011 NSWPHS when only a landline based sample was used. Conclusions The inclusion of mobile phone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, improved the coverage of the survey and an appropriate weighing procedure is feasible, although it added substantially to the complexity of the weighting strategy. Access to accurate Australian, State and Territory estimates of the number of landline and mobile phone numbers and type of phone use by at least age group and sex would greatly assist in the weighting of dual-frame surveys in Australia. PMID:25189826

Developing a weighting strategy to include mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey using an overlapping dual-frame design with limited benchmark information.

PubMed

Barr, Margo L; Ferguson, Raymond A; Hughes, Phil J; Steel, David G

2014-09-04

In 2012 mobile phone numbers were included into the ongoing New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS) using an overlapping dual-frame design. Previously in the NSWPHS the sample was selected using random digit dialing (RDD) of landline phone numbers. The survey was undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI). The weighting strategy needed to be significantly expanded to manage the differing probabilities of selection by frame, including that of children of mobile-only phone users, and to adjust for the increased chance of selection of dual-phone users. This paper describes the development of the final weighting strategy to properly combine the data from two overlapping sample frames accounting for the fact that population benchmarks for the different sampling frames were not available at the state or regional level. Estimates of the number of phone numbers for the landline and mobile phone frames used to calculate the differing probabilities of selection by frame, for New South Wales (NSW) and by stratum, were obtained by apportioning Australian estimates as none were available for NSW. The weighting strategy was then developed by calculating person selection probabilities, selection weights, applying a constant composite factor to the dual-phone users sample weights, and benchmarking to the latest NSW population by age group, sex and stratum. Data from the NSWPHS for the first quarter of 2012 was used to test the weighting strategy. This consisted of data on 3395 respondents with 2171 (64%) from the landline frame and 1224 (36%) from the mobile frame. However, in order to calculate the weights, data needed to be available for all core weighting variables and so 3378 respondents, 2933 adults and 445 children, had sufficient data to be included. Average person weights were 3.3 times higher for the mobile-only respondents, 1.3 times higher for the landline-only respondents and 1.7 times higher for dual-phone users in the mobile frame compared to the dual-phone users in the landline frame. The overall weight effect for the first quarter of 2012 was 1.93 and the coefficient of variation of the weights was 0.96. The weight effects for 2012 were similar to, and in many cases less than, the effects found in the corresponding quarter of the 2011 NSWPHS when only a landline based sample was used. The inclusion of mobile phone numbers, through an overlapping dual-frame design, improved the coverage of the survey and an appropriate weighing procedure is feasible, although it added substantially to the complexity of the weighting strategy. Access to accurate Australian, State and Territory estimates of the number of landline and mobile phone numbers and type of phone use by at least age group and sex would greatly assist in the weighting of dual-frame surveys in Australia.

Survey of Gravitationally-lensed Objects in HSC Imaging (SuGOHI). I. Automatic search for galaxy-scale strong lenses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnenfeld, Alessandro; Chan, James H. H.; Shu, Yiping; More, Anupreeta; Oguri, Masamune; Suyu, Sherry H.; Wong, Kenneth C.; Lee, Chien-Hsiu; Coupon, Jean; Yonehara, Atsunori; Bolton, Adam S.; Jaelani, Anton T.; Tanaka, Masayuki; Miyazaki, Satoshi; Komiyama, Yutaka

2018-01-01

The Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP) is an excellent survey for the search for strong lenses, thanks to its area, image quality, and depth. We use three different methods to look for lenses among 43000 luminous red galaxies from the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) sample with photometry from the S16A internal data release of the HSC-SSP. The first method is a newly developed algorithm, named YATTALENS, which looks for arc-like features around massive galaxies and then estimates the likelihood of an object being a lens by performing a lens model fit. The second method, CHITAH, is a modeling-based algorithm originally developed to look for lensed quasars. The third method makes use of spectroscopic data to look for emission lines from objects at a different redshift from that of the main galaxy. We find 15 definite lenses, 36 highly probable lenses, and 282 possible lenses. Among the three methods, YATTALENS, which was developed specifically for this study, performs best in terms of both completeness and purity. Nevertheless, five highly probable lenses were missed by YATTALENS but found by the other two methods, indicating that the three methods are highly complementary. Based on these numbers, we expect to find ˜300 definite or probable lenses by the end of the HSC-SSP.

Assessment of frequency and duration of point counts when surveying for golden eagle presence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skipper, Ben R.; Boal, Clint W.; Tsai, Jo-Szu; Fuller, Mark R.

2017-01-01

We assessed the utility of the recommended golden eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) survey methodology in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2013 Eagle Conservation Plan Guidance. We conducted 800-m radius, 1-hr point-count surveys broken into 20-min segments, during 2 sampling periods in 3 areas within the Intermountain West of the United States over 2 consecutive breeding seasons during 2012 and 2013. Our goal was to measure the influence of different survey time intervals and sampling periods on detectability and use estimates of golden eagles among different locations. Our results suggest that a less intensive effort (i.e., survey duration shorter than 1 hr and point-count survey radii smaller than 800 m) would likely be inadequate for rigorous documentation of golden eagle occurrence pre- or postconstruction of wind energy facilities. Results from a simulation analysis of detection probabilities and survey effort suggest that greater temporal and spatial effort could make point-count surveys more applicable for evaluating golden eagle occurrence in survey areas; however, increased effort would increase financial costs associated with additional person-hours and logistics (e.g., fuel, lodging). Future surveys can benefit from a pilot study and careful consideration of prior information about counts or densities of golden eagles in the survey area before developing a survey design. If information is lacking, survey planning may be best served by assuming low detection rates and increasing the temporal and spatial effort.

Assessment of environmental DNA for detecting presence of imperiled aquatic amphibian species in isolated wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mckee, Anna; Calhoun, Daniel L.; Barichivich, William J.; Spear, Stephen F.; Goldberg, Caren S.; Glenn, Travis C

2015-01-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) is an emerging tool that allows low-impact sampling for aquatic species by isolating DNA from water samples and screening for DNA sequences specific to species of interest. However, researchers have not tested this method in naturally acidic wetlands that provide breeding habitat for a number of imperiled species, including the frosted salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum), reticulated flatwoods salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi), striped newt (Notophthalmus perstriatus), and gopher frog (Lithobates capito). Our objectives for this study were to develop and optimize eDNA survey protocols and assays to complement and enhance capture-based survey methods for these amphibian species. We collected three or more water samples, dipnetted or trapped larval and adult amphibians, and conducted visual encounter surveys for egg masses for target species at 40 sites on 12 different longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) tracts. We used quantitative PCRs to screen eDNA from each site for target species presence. We detected flatwoods salamanders at three sites with eDNA but did not detect them during physical surveys. Based on the sample location we assumed these eDNA detections to indicate the presence of frosted flatwoods salamanders. We did not detect reticulated flatwoods salamanders. We detected striped newts with physical and eDNA surveys at two wetlands. We detected gopher frogs at 12 sites total, three with eDNA alone, two with physical surveys alone, and seven with physical and eDNA surveys. We detected our target species with eDNA at 9 of 11 sites where they were present as indicated from traditional surveys and at six sites where they were not detected with traditional surveys. It was, however, critical to use at least three water samples per site for eDNA. Our results demonstrate eDNA surveys can be a useful complement to traditional survey methods for detecting imperiled pond-breeding amphibians. Environmental DNA may be particularly useful in situations where detection probability using traditional survey methods is low or access by trained personnel is limited.

Survey of Malassezia sp and dermatophytes in the cutaneous microbiome of free-ranging golden-headed lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas - Kuhl, 1820).

PubMed

Neves, Juan Ja; Francelino, Marcelo; Silva, Flavia Gl; Baptista, Luana Cl; Bueno, Marina G; Catão-Dias, José L; Molina, Camila; Kierulff, Maria Cm; Pissinatti, Alcides; Coutinho, Selene DA

2017-06-01

Data about the presence of fungi on the cutaneous surface of wild animals are scarce. The aim of this study was to survey dermatophytes and Malassezia sp in the external ear canal and haircoat of Leontopithecus chrysomelas. A total of 928 clinical samples were collected from 232 animals: For Malassezia screening 696 samples were studied, 464 of cerumen and 232 of haircoat; another 232 haircoat samples were studied for dermatophyte analysis. A geophilic dermatophyte, Microsporum cookie, was isolated from one young female. Lipodependent Malassezia was isolated from 76 animals and 87 clinical samples, 26 from the cerumen and 61 from the haircoat (statistically significant); there were no differences related to gender and age. Results suggested that lipodependent Malassezia is part of the skin microbiome of these animals. The prevalence of dermatophytes was too low and probably not relevant for the health of the studied population. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cross-sectional survey of indicator and pathogenic bacteria on vegetables sold from Asian vendors at farmers' markets in northern California.

PubMed

Pan, Fengguang; Li, Xunde; Carabez, Jennifer; Ragosta, Guy; Fernandez, Kristine L; Wang, Elaine; Thiptara, Anyarat; Antaki, Elizabeth; Atwill, Edward R

2015-03-01

A cross-sectional survey was conducted during summer 2013 to determine the occurrence of Escherichia coli, fecal coliforms (FCs), E. coli O157:H7, and Salmonella on raw vegetable commodities common to Asian cuisine from 21 vendors or farmers at six farmers' markets in northern California. Based on 242 samples from six commodities (basil, yardlong beans, bitter squash, okra, squash stems and leaves, cilantro), 100% of samples had detectable FCs and 20% had detectable E. coli. The mean concentrations were 0.67 log CFU/g and 1.26 log CFU per bundle for E. coli and 4.00 log CFU/g and 6.26 log CFU per bundle for FCs. Vegetables irrigated with ground versus surface water contained lower concentrations of FCs, but this difference was not observed for E. coli. Yardlong beans, bitter squash, and okra had lower levels of FCs compared with basil, cilantro, and squash stems and leaves. Sixteen (6.6%) samples had detectable levels of Salmonella serovars (Newport, Enteritidis, Agona, and Worthington), with the majority of positives found in cilantro and squash stems and leaves. There was a twofold higher probability of Salmonella contamination in samples from growers or vendors who stated that they used organic farming practices compared with samples from those using conventional farming practices. Lastly, the concentrations of FC and E. coli bacteria were significantly associated with Salmonella contamination: for each additional 100 CFU/g or bundle, the probability of Salmonella contamination increased by ∼15 and ∼30%, respectively. None of the samples had detectable E. coli O157:H7.

The Chandra Xbootes Survey - IV: Mid-Infrared and Submillimeter Counterparts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Arianna; Mitchell-Wynne, Ketron; Cooray, Asantha R.; Nayyeri, Hooshang

2016-06-01

In this work, we use a Bayesian technique to identify mid-IR and submillimeter counterparts for 3,213 X-ray point sources detected in the Chandra XBoötes Survey so as to characterize the relationship between black hole activity and star formation in the XBoötes region. The Chandra XBoötes Survey is a 5-ks X-ray survey of the 9.3 square degree Boötes Field of the NOAO Deep Wide-Field Survey (NDWFS), a survey imaged from the optical to the near-IR. We use a likelihood ratio analysis on Spitzer-IRAC data taken from The Spitzer Deep, Wide-Field Survey (SDWFS) to determine mid-IR counterparts, and a similar method on Herschel-SPIRE sources detected at 250µm from The Herschel Multi-tiered Extragalactic Survey to determine the submillimeter counterparts. The likelihood ratio analysis (LRA) provides the probability that a(n) IRAC or SPIRE point source is the true counterpart to a Chandra source. The analysis is comprised of three parts: the normalized magnitude distributions of counterparts and background sources, and the radial probability distribution of the separation distance between the IRAC or SPIRE source and the Chandra source. Many Chandra sources have multiple prospective counterparts in each band, so additional analysis is performed to determine the identification reliability of the candidates. Identification reliability values lie between 0 and 1, and sources with identification reliability values ≥0.8 are chosen to be the true counterparts. With these results, we will consider the statistical implications of the sample's redshifts, mid-IR and submillimeter luminosities, and star formation rates.

Are quantitative trait-dependent sampling designs cost-effective for analysis of rare and common variants?

PubMed

Yilmaz, Yildiz E; Bull, Shelley B

2011-11-29

Use of trait-dependent sampling designs in whole-genome association studies of sequence data can reduce total sequencing costs with modest losses of statistical efficiency. In a quantitative trait (QT) analysis of data from the Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 mini-exome for unrelated individuals in the Asian subpopulation, we investigate alternative designs that sequence only 50% of the entire cohort. In addition to a simple random sampling design, we consider extreme-phenotype designs that are of increasing interest in genetic association analysis of QTs, especially in studies concerned with the detection of rare genetic variants. We also evaluate a novel sampling design in which all individuals have a nonzero probability of being selected into the sample but in which individuals with extreme phenotypes have a proportionately larger probability. We take differential sampling of individuals with informative trait values into account by inverse probability weighting using standard survey methods which thus generalizes to the source population. In replicate 1 data, we applied the designs in association analysis of Q1 with both rare and common variants in the FLT1 gene, based on knowledge of the generating model. Using all 200 replicate data sets, we similarly analyzed Q1 and Q4 (which is known to be free of association with FLT1) to evaluate relative efficiency, type I error, and power. Simulation study results suggest that the QT-dependent selection designs generally yield greater than 50% relative efficiency compared to using the entire cohort, implying cost-effectiveness of 50% sample selection and worthwhile reduction of sequencing costs.

Electronic Health Records to Evaluate and Account for Non-response Bias: A Survey of Patients Using Chronic Opioid Therapy.

PubMed

Shortreed, Susan M; Von Korff, Michael; Thielke, Stephen; LeResche, Linda; Saunders, Kathleen; Rosenberg, Dori; Turner, Judith A

2016-01-01

In observational studies concerning drug use and misuse, persons misusing drugs may be less likely to respond to surveys. However, little is known about differences in drug use and drug misuse risk factors between survey respondents and nonrespondents. Using electronic health record (EHR) data, we compared respondents and non-respondents in a telephone survey of middle-aged and older chronic opioid therapy patients to assess predictors of interview nonresponse. We compared general patient characteristics, specific opioid misuse risk factors, and patterns of opioid use associated with increased risk of opioid misuse. Inverse probability weights were calculated to account for nonresponse bias by EHR-measured covariates. EHR-measured covariate distributions for the full sample (nonrespondents and respondents), the unweighted respondent sample, and the inverse probability weighted respondent sample are reported. We present weighted and unweighted prevalence of self-reported opioid misuse risk factors. Among 2489 potentially eligible patients, 1477 (59.3%) completed interviews. Response rates differed with age (45-54 years, 51.8%; 55-64 years, 58.7%; 65-74 years, 67.9%; and 75 years or older, 59.9%). Tobacco users had lower response rates than did nonusers (53.5% versus 60.9%). Charlson comorbidity score was also related to response rates. Individuals with a Charlson score of 2 had the highest response rate at 65.6%; response rates were lower amoung patients with the lowest (the patients with the fewest health conditions had response rates of 56.7-60.0%) and the highest Charlson scores (patients with the most health conditions had response rates of 52.2-56.0%). These bivariate relationships persisted in adjusted multivariable logistic regression models predicting survey response. Response rates of persons with and without specific opioid misuse risk factors were similar (e.g., 58.7% for persons with substance abuse diagnoses, 59.4% for those without). Opioid use patterns associated with opioid misuse did not predict response rates (e.g., 60.6% versus 59.2% for those receiving versus not receiving opioids from 3 or more physicians outside their primary care clinic). Very few patient characteristics predicted non-response; thus, inverse probability weights accounting for nonresponse had little impact on the distributions of EHR-measured covariates or self-reported measures related to opioid use and misuse. Response rates differed by characteristics that predict nonresponse in general health surveys (age, tobacco use), but did not appear to differ by specific patient or drug use risk factors for prescription opioid misuse among middle- and older-aged chronic opioid therapy patients. When observational studies are conducted in health plan populations, electronic health records may be used to evaluate nonresponse bias and to adjust for variables predicting interview nonresponse, complementing other research uses of EHR data in observational studies.

Soil arsenic surveys of New Orleans: localized hazards in children's play areas.

PubMed

Mielke, Howard W; Gonzales, Chris R; Cahn, Elise; Brumfield, Jessica; Powell, Eric T; Mielke, Paul W

2010-10-01

Arsenic (As) ranks first on the 2005 and 2007 hazardous substances priority lists compiled for the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). This study describes two New Orleans soil As surveys: (1) a survey of composite soil samples from 286 census tracts and (2) a field survey of soil As at 38 play areas associated with the presence of chromated-copper-arsenate (CCA)-treated wood on residential and public properties. The survey of metropolitan New Orleans soils revealed a median As content of 1.5 mg/kg (range <0.2-16.4) and no distinctive differences between the soils of the city core and outlying areas. Play area accessible soils associated with CCA-treated wood (N = 32) had a median As of 57 mg/kg and 78% of the samples were ≥12 mg/kg, the Louisiana soil As standard. The field survey of play areas for CCA-treated wood (N = 132 samples at 38 sites) was conducted with a portable energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analyzer. Seventy-five of 132 wood samples (56.8%) were deemed CCA-treated wood. Of the 38 play areas surveyed, 14 (36.8%) had CCA-treated wood. A significant association (Fisher's exact p-value = 0.348 × 10(-6)) was found between CCA-treated wood and soil As (N = 75). At one elementary school CCA-treated woodchips (As range 813-1,654 mg As/kg) covered the playgrounds. The situation in New Orleans probably exists in play areas across the nation. These findings support a precautionary program for testing soils and wood for hazardous substances at all play areas intended for children.

Statistical Searches for Microlensing Events in Large, Non-uniformly Sampled Time-Domain Surveys: A Test Using Palomar Transient Factory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Agüeros, Marcel A.; Fournier, Amanda P.; Street, Rachel; Ofek, Eran O.; Covey, Kevin R.; Levitan, David; Laher, Russ R.; Sesar, Branimir; Surace, Jason

2014-01-01

Many photometric time-domain surveys are driven by specific goals, such as searches for supernovae or transiting exoplanets, which set the cadence with which fields are re-imaged. In the case of the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), several sub-surveys are conducted in parallel, leading to non-uniform sampling over its ~20,000 deg2 footprint. While the median 7.26 deg2 PTF field has been imaged ~40 times in the R band, ~2300 deg2 have been observed >100 times. We use PTF data to study the trade off between searching for microlensing events in a survey whose footprint is much larger than that of typical microlensing searches, but with far-from-optimal time sampling. To examine the probability that microlensing events can be recovered in these data, we test statistics used on uniformly sampled data to identify variables and transients. We find that the von Neumann ratio performs best for identifying simulated microlensing events in our data. We develop a selection method using this statistic and apply it to data from fields with >10 R-band observations, 1.1 × 109 light curves, uncovering three candidate microlensing events. We lack simultaneous, multi-color photometry to confirm these as microlensing events. However, their number is consistent with predictions for the event rate in the PTF footprint over the survey's three years of operations, as estimated from near-field microlensing models. This work can help constrain all-sky event rate predictions and tests microlensing signal recovery in large data sets, which will be useful to future time-domain surveys, such as that planned with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Seasonal distribution and aerial surveys of mountain goats in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt; Beirne, Katherine; Happe, Patricia; Hoffman, Roger; Rice, Cliff; Schaberl, Jim

2011-01-01

We described the seasonal distribution of Geographic Positioning System (GPS)-collared mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) in Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks to evaluate aerial survey sampling designs and provide general information for park managers. This work complemented a companion study published elsewhere of aerial detection biases of mountain goat surveys in western Washington. Specific objectives reported here were to determine seasonal and altitudinal movements, home range distributions, and temporal dynamics of mountain goat movements in and out of aerial survey sampling frames established within each park. We captured 25 mountain goats in Mount Rainier (9), North Cascades (5), and Olympic (11) National Parks, and fitted them with GPS-collars programmed to obtain 6-8 locations daily. We obtained location data on 23 mountain goats for a range of 39-751 days from 2003 to 2008. Altitudinal distributions of GPS-collared mountain goats varied individually and seasonally, but median altitudes used by individual goats during winter ranged from 817 to 1,541 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,215 to 1,787 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. Median altitudes used by GPS-collared goats during summer ranged from 1,312 to 1,819 meters in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks, and 1,780 to 2,061 meters in Mount Rainier National Park. GPS-collared mountain goats generally moved from low-altitude winter ranges to high-altitude summer ranges between June 11 and June 19 (range April 24-July 3) and from summer to winter ranges between October 26 and November 9 (range September 11-December 23). Seasonal home ranges (95 percent of adaptive kernel utilization distribution) of males and female mountain goats were highly variable, ranging from 1.6 to 37.0 kilometers during summers and 0.7 to 9.5 kilometers during winters. Locations of GPS-collared mountain goats were almost 100 percent within the sampling frame used for mountain goat surveys in Mount Rainier National Park, whereas generally greater than 80 and greater than 60 percent of locations were within sampling units delineated in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks, respectively. Presence of GPS-collared mountain goats within the sampling frame of Olympic National Park varied by diurnal period (midday versus crepuscular), survey season (July versus September), and the interaction of diurnal period and survey season. Aerial surveys conducted in developing a sightability model for mountain goat aerial surveys indicated mean detection probabilities of 0.69, 0.76, and 0.87 in North Cascades, Olympic, and Mount Rainier National Parks, respectively. Higher detection probabilities in Mount Rainier likely reflected larger group sizes and more open habitat conditions than in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks. Use of sightability models will reduce biases of population estimates in each park, but resulting population estimates must still be considered minimum population estimates in Olympic and North Cascades National Parks because the current sampling frames do not encompass those populations completely. Because mountain goats were reliably present within the sampling frame in Mount Rainier National Park, we found no compelling need to adjust mountain goat survey boundaries in that park. Expanding survey coverage in North Cascades and Olympic National Parks to more reliably encompass the altitudinal distribution of mountain goats during summer would enhance population estimation accuracy in the future. Lowering the altitude boundary of mountain goat survey units by as little as 100 meters to 1,425 meters in Olympic National Park would increase mountain goat presence within the survey and reduce variation in counts related to movements of mountain goats outside the survey boundaries.

Sample size guidelines for fitting a lognormal probability distribution to censored most probable number data with a Markov chain Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Williams, Michael S; Cao, Yong; Ebel, Eric D

2013-07-15

Levels of pathogenic organisms in food and water have steadily declined in many parts of the world. A consequence of this reduction is that the proportion of samples that test positive for the most contaminated product-pathogen pairings has fallen to less than 0.1. While this is unequivocally beneficial to public health, datasets with very few enumerated samples present an analytical challenge because a large proportion of the observations are censored values. One application of particular interest to risk assessors is the fitting of a statistical distribution function to datasets collected at some point in the farm-to-table continuum. The fitted distribution forms an important component of an exposure assessment. A number of studies have compared different fitting methods and proposed lower limits on the proportion of samples where the organisms of interest are identified and enumerated, with the recommended lower limit of enumerated samples being 0.2. This recommendation may not be applicable to food safety risk assessments for a number of reasons, which include the development of new Bayesian fitting methods, the use of highly sensitive screening tests, and the generally larger sample sizes found in surveys of food commodities. This study evaluates the performance of a Markov chain Monte Carlo fitting method when used in conjunction with a screening test and enumeration of positive samples by the Most Probable Number technique. The results suggest that levels of contamination for common product-pathogen pairs, such as Salmonella on poultry carcasses, can be reliably estimated with the proposed fitting method and samples sizes in excess of 500 observations. The results do, however, demonstrate that simple guidelines for this application, such as the proportion of positive samples, cannot be provided. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Talking Drums: Generating drum grooves with neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchings, P.

2017-05-01

Presented is a method of generating a full drum kit part for a provided kick-drum sequence. A sequence to sequence neural network model used in natural language translation was adopted to encode multiple musical styles and an online survey was developed to test different techniques for sampling the output of the softmax function. The strongest results were found using a sampling technique that drew from the three most probable outputs at each subdivision of the drum pattern but the consistency of output was found to be heavily dependent on style.

Assessing bat detectability and occupancy with multiple automated echolocation detectors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P.M.; Miles, A.C.; Todd, C.M.; Bonaccorso, F.J.; Weller, T.J.

2008-01-01

Occupancy analysis and its ability to account for differential detection probabilities is important for studies in which detecting echolocation calls is used as a measure of bat occurrence and activity. We examined the feasibility of remotely acquiring bat encounter histories to estimate detection probability and occupancy. We used echolocation detectors coupled to digital recorders operating at a series of proximate sites on consecutive nights in 2 trial surveys for the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus). Our results confirmed that the technique is readily amenable for use in occupancy analysis. We also conducted a simulation exercise to assess the effects of sampling effort on parameter estimation. The results indicated that the precision and bias of parameter estimation were often more influenced by the number of sites sampled than number of visits. Acceptable accuracy often was not attained until at least 15 sites or 15 visits were used to estimate detection probability and occupancy. The method has significant potential for use in monitoring trends in bat activity and in comparative studies of habitat use. ?? 2008 American Society of Mammalogists.

The TIMSS Videotape Classroom Study: Methods and Findings from an Exploratory Research Project on Eighth-Grade Mathematics Instruction in Germany, Japan, and the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stigler, James W.; Gonzales, Patrick; Kawanaka, Takako; Knoll, Steffen; Serrano, Ana

1999-01-01

Describes the methods and preliminary findings of the Videotape Classroom Study, a video survey of eighth-grade mathematics lessons in Germany, Japan, and the United States. Part of the Third International Mathematics and Science study, this research project is the first study of videotaped records from national probability samples. (SLD)

Strong lensing probability in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen Daming, E-mail: cdm@bao.ac.cn

2008-01-15

We recalculate the strong lensing probability as a function of the image separation in TeVeS (tensor-vector-scalar) cosmology, which is a relativistic version of MOND (MOdified Newtonian Dynamics). The lens is modeled by the Hernquist profile. We assume an open cosmology with {Omega}{sub b} = 0.04 and {Omega}{sub {Lambda}} = 0.5 and three different kinds of interpolating functions. Two different galaxy stellar mass functions (GSMF) are adopted: PHJ (Panter, Heavens and Jimenez 2004 Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 355 764) determined from SDSS data release 1 and Fontana (Fontana et al 2006 Astron. Astrophys. 459 745) from GOODS-MUSIC catalog. We comparemore » our results with both the predicted probabilities for lenses from singular isothermal sphere galaxy halos in LCDM (Lambda cold dark matter) with a Schechter-fit velocity function, and the observational results for the well defined combined sample of the Cosmic Lens All-Sky Survey (CLASS) and Jodrell Bank/Very Large Array Astrometric Survey (JVAS). It turns out that the interpolating function {mu}(x) = x/(1+x) combined with Fontana GSMF matches the results from CLASS/JVAS quite well.« less

Statistical assessment on a combined analysis of GRYN-ROMN-UCBN upland vegetation vital signs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Kathryn M.; Rodhouse, Thomas J.

2014-01-01

As of 2013, Rocky Mountain and Upper Columbia Basin Inventory and Monitoring Networks have multiple years of vegetation data and Greater Yellowstone Network has three years of vegetation data and monitoring is ongoing in all three networks. Our primary objective is to assess whether a combined analysis of these data aimed at exploring correlations with climate and weather data is feasible. We summarize the core survey design elements across protocols and point out the major statistical challenges for a combined analysis at present. The dissimilarity in response designs between ROMN and UCBN-GRYN network protocols presents a statistical challenge that has not been resolved yet. However, the UCBN and GRYN data are compatible as they implement a similar response design; therefore, a combined analysis is feasible and will be pursued in future. When data collected by different networks are combined, the survey design describing the merged dataset is (likely) a complex survey design. A complex survey design is the result of combining datasets from different sampling designs. A complex survey design is characterized by unequal probability sampling, varying stratification, and clustering (see Lohr 2010 Chapter 7 for general overview). Statistical analysis of complex survey data requires modifications to standard methods, one of which is to include survey design weights within a statistical model. We focus on this issue for a combined analysis of upland vegetation from these networks, leaving other topics for future research. We conduct a simulation study on the possible effects of equal versus unequal probability selection of points on parameter estimates of temporal trend using available packages within the R statistical computing package. We find that, as written, using lmer or lm for trend detection in a continuous response and clm and clmm for visually estimated cover classes with “raw” GRTS design weights specified for the weight argument leads to substantially different results and/or computational instability. However, when only fixed effects are of interest, the survey package (svyglm and svyolr) may be suitable for a model-assisted analysis for trend. We provide possible directions for future research into combined analysis for ordinal and continuous vital sign indictors.

Optimising in situ gamma measurements to identify the presence of radioactive particles in land areas.

PubMed

Rostron, Peter D; Heathcote, John A; Ramsey, Michael H

2014-12-01

High-coverage in situ surveys with gamma detectors are the best means of identifying small hotspots of activity, such as radioactive particles, in land areas. Scanning surveys can produce rapid results, but the probabilities of obtaining false positive or false negative errors are often unknown, and they may not satisfy other criteria such as estimation of mass activity concentrations. An alternative is to use portable gamma-detectors that are set up at a series of locations in a systematic sampling pattern, where any positive measurements are subsequently followed up in order to determine the exact location, extent and nature of the target source. The preliminary survey is typically designed using settings of detector height, measurement spacing and counting time that are based on convenience, rather than using settings that have been calculated to meet requirements. This paper introduces the basis of a repeatable method of setting these parameters at the outset of a survey, for pre-defined probabilities of false positive and false negative errors in locating spatially small radioactive particles in land areas. It is shown that an un-collimated detector is more effective than a collimated detector that might typically be used in the field. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Precision of Biomass Estimates in Regional Field Sample Surveys and Airborne LiDAR-Assisted Surveys in Hedmark County, Norway

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naesset, Erik; Gobakken, Terje; Bollandsas, Ole Martin; Gregoire, Timothy G.; Nelson, Ross; Stahl, Goeran

2013-01-01

Airborne scanning LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) has emerged as a promising tool to provide auxiliary data for sample surveys aiming at estimation of above-ground tree biomass (AGB), with potential applications in REDD forest monitoring. For larger geographical regions such as counties, states or nations, it is not feasible to collect airborne LiDAR data continuously ("wall-to-wall") over the entire area of interest. Two-stage cluster survey designs have therefore been demonstrated by which LiDAR data are collected along selected individual flight-lines treated as clusters and with ground plots sampled along these LiDAR swaths. Recently, analytical AGB estimators and associated variance estimators that quantify the sampling variability have been proposed. Empirical studies employing these estimators have shown a seemingly equal or even larger uncertainty of the AGB estimates obtained with extensive use of LiDAR data to support the estimation as compared to pure field-based estimates employing estimators appropriate under simple random sampling (SRS). However, comparison of uncertainty estimates under SRS and sophisticated two-stage designs is complicated by large differences in the designs and assumptions. In this study, probability-based principles to estimation and inference were followed. We assumed designs of a field sample and a LiDAR-assisted survey of Hedmark County (HC) (27,390 km2), Norway, considered to be more comparable than those assumed in previous studies. The field sample consisted of 659 systematically distributed National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots and the airborne scanning LiDAR data were collected along 53 parallel flight-lines flown over the NFI plots. We compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming SRS against corresponding estimates assuming two-phase (double) sampling with LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. We also compared AGB estimates based on the field survey only assuming two-stage sampling (the NFI plots being grouped in clusters) against corresponding estimates assuming two-stage sampling with the LiDAR and employing model-assisted estimators. For each of the two comparisons, the standard errors of the AGB estimates were consistently lower for the LiDAR-assisted designs. The overall reduction of the standard errors in the LiDAR-assisted estimation was around 40-60% compared to the pure field survey. We conclude that the previously proposed two-stage model-assisted estimators are inappropriate for surveys with unequal lengths of the LiDAR flight-lines and new estimators are needed. Some options for design of LiDAR-assisted sample surveys under REDD are also discussed, which capitalize on the flexibility offered when the field survey is designed as an integrated part of the overall survey design as opposed to previous LiDAR-assisted sample surveys in the boreal and temperate zones which have been restricted by the current design of an existing NFI.

Monitoring Least Bitterns (Ixobrychis exilis) in Vermont: Detection probability and occupancy modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherukuri, Aswini; Strong, Allan; Donovan, Therese M.

2018-01-01

Ixobrychus exillis (Least Bittern) is listed as a species of high concern in the North American Waterbird Conservation Plan and is a US Fish and Wildlife Service migratory bird species of conservation concern in the Northeast. Little is known about the population of Least Bitterns in the Northeast because of their low population density, tendency to nest in dense wetland vegetation, and secretive behavior. Urban and agricultural development is expected to encroach on and degrade suitable wetland habitat; however, we cannot predict the effects on Least Bittern populations without more accurate information on their abundance and distribution. We conducted surveys of wetlands in Vermont to assess the efficacy of a monitoring protocol and to establish baseline Least Bittern abundance and distribution data at a sample of 29 wetland sites. Surveys yielded detections of 31 individuals at 15 of 29 sites across 3 biophysical regions and at 5 sites where occupancy had not been previously reported. Probability of occupancy was positively related to wetland size and number of patches, though the relationships were not strong enough to conclude if these were true determinants of occupancy. Call—response broadcast surveys yielded 30 detections, while passive surveys yielded 13. Call—response broadcasts (P = 0.897) increased the rate of detection by 55% compared to passive surveys (P = 0.577). Our results suggest that call—response broadcast surveys are an effective means of assessing Least Bittern occupancy and may reduce bias in long-term monitoring programs.

Pairing field methods to improve inference in wildlife surveys while accommodating detection covariance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clare, John; McKinney, Shawn T.; DePue, John E.; Loftin, Cynthia S.

2017-01-01

It is common to use multiple field sampling methods when implementing wildlife surveys to compare method efficacy or cost efficiency, integrate distinct pieces of information provided by separate methods, or evaluate method-specific biases and misclassification error. Existing models that combine information from multiple field methods or sampling devices permit rigorous comparison of method-specific detection parameters, enable estimation of additional parameters such as false-positive detection probability, and improve occurrence or abundance estimates, but with the assumption that the separate sampling methods produce detections independently of one another. This assumption is tenuous if methods are paired or deployed in close proximity simultaneously, a common practice that reduces the additional effort required to implement multiple methods and reduces the risk that differences between method-specific detection parameters are confounded by other environmental factors. We develop occupancy and spatial capture–recapture models that permit covariance between the detections produced by different methods, use simulation to compare estimator performance of the new models to models assuming independence, and provide an empirical application based on American marten (Martes americana) surveys using paired remote cameras, hair catches, and snow tracking. Simulation results indicate existing models that assume that methods independently detect organisms produce biased parameter estimates and substantially understate estimate uncertainty when this assumption is violated, while our reformulated models are robust to either methodological independence or covariance. Empirical results suggested that remote cameras and snow tracking had comparable probability of detecting present martens, but that snow tracking also produced false-positive marten detections that could potentially substantially bias distribution estimates if not corrected for. Remote cameras detected marten individuals more readily than passive hair catches. Inability to photographically distinguish individual sex did not appear to induce negative bias in camera density estimates; instead, hair catches appeared to produce detection competition between individuals that may have been a source of negative bias. Our model reformulations broaden the range of circumstances in which analyses incorporating multiple sources of information can be robustly used, and our empirical results demonstrate that using multiple field-methods can enhance inferences regarding ecological parameters of interest and improve understanding of how reliably survey methods sample these parameters.

The Impact of Breastfeeding on Early Childhood Obesity: Evidence From the National Survey of Children's Health.

PubMed

Hansstein, Francesca V

2016-03-01

To investigate how breastfeeding initiation and duration affect the likelihood of being overweight and obese in children aged 2 to 5. Cross-sectional data from the 2003 National Survey of Children's Health. Rural and urban areas of the United States. Households where at least one member was between the ages of 2 and 5 (sample size 8207). Parent-reported body mass index, breastfeeding initiation and duration, covariates (gender, family income and education, ethnicity, child care attendance, maternal health and physical activity, residential area). Partial proportional odds models. In early childhood, breastfed children had 5.3% higher probability of being normal weight (p = .002) and 8.9% (p < .001) lower probability of being obese compared to children who had never been breastfed. Children who had been breastfed for less than 3 months had 3.1% lower probability of being normal weight (p = .013) and 4.7% higher probability of being obese (p = .013) with respect to children who had been breastfed for 3 months and above. Study findings suggest that length of breastfeeding, whether exclusive or not, may be associated with lower risk of obesity in early childhood. However, caution is needed in generalizing results because of the limitations of the analysis. Based on findings from this study and others, breastfeeding promotion policies can cite the potential protective effect that breastfeeding has on weight in early childhood. © The Author(s) 2016.

Ecological correlates of depression and self-esteem in rural youth.

PubMed

Smokowski, Paul R; Evans, Caroline B R; Cotter, Katie L; Guo, Shenyang

2014-10-01

The current study examines individual-, social-, and school-level characteristics influencing symptoms of depression and self-esteem among a large sample (N = 4,321) of U.S. youth living in two rural counties in the South. Survey data for this sample of middle-school students (Grade 6 to Grade 8) were part of the Rural Adaptation Project. Data were analyzed using ordered logistic regression. Results show that being female, having a low income, and having negative relationships with parents and peers are risk factors that increase the probability of reporting high levels of depressive symptoms and low levels of self-esteem. In contrast, supportive relationships with parents and peers, high religious orientation, ethnic identity, and school satisfaction increased the probability of reporting low levels of depressive symptoms and high levels of self-esteem. There were few school-level characteristics associated with levels of depressive symptoms and self-esteem. Implications are discussed.

Mental health in American colleges and universities: variation across student subgroups and across campuses.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Daniel; Hunt, Justin; Speer, Nicole

2013-01-01

We estimated the prevalence and correlates of mental health problems among college students in the United States. In 2007 and 2009, we administered online surveys with brief mental health screens to random samples of students at 26 campuses nationwide. We used sample probability weights to adjust for survey nonresponse. A total of 14,175 students completed the survey, corresponding to a 44% participation rate. The prevalence of positive screens was 17.3% for depression, 4.1% for panic disorder, 7.0% for generalized anxiety, 6.3% for suicidal ideation, and 15.3% for nonsuicidal self-injury. Mental health problems were significantly associated with sex, race/ethnicity, religiosity, relationship status, living on campus, and financial situation. The prevalence of conditions varied substantially across the campuses, although campus-level variation was still a small proportion of overall variation in student mental health. The findings offer a starting point for identifying individual and contextual factors that may be useful to target in intervention strategies.

A volume-limited survey of High Galactic latitude planetary nebulae with the Extrme Ultraviolet Explorer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fruscione, Antonella; Drake, Jeremy J.; Mcdonald, Kelley; Malina, Roger F.

1995-01-01

We present the results of a complete survey, at extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths (58-234 A), of the high Galactic latitude (absolute value of b greater than or = to 20 deg) planetary nebulae (PNs) with at least one determination of the distance within 1 kpc of the Sun. The sample comprises 27 objects observed during the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) all-sky survey and represents the majority of PN likely to be accessible at EUV wavelengths. Six PNs (NGC 246, NGC 1360, K1-16, LoTr 5, NGC 4361, and NGC 3587) were detected in the shortest EUV band (58-174 A). A seventh PN (NGC 6853), not included in the sample, was also detected during the survey. The emission is consistent in all cases with that of a point source and therefore most probably originates from the PN central star. Accurate EUV count rates or upper limits in the two shorter EUVE bands (centered at approximately 100 and 200 A) are given for all the sources in the sample. NGC 4361 and NGC 3587 are reported here for the first time as sources of EUV radiation. As might be expected, attenuation by the interstellar medium dominates the PN distribution in the EUV sky.

The planetary spatial data infrastructure for the OSIRIS-REx mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DellaGiustina, D. N.; Selznick, S.; Nolan, M. C.; Enos, H. L.; Lauretta, D. S.

2017-12-01

The primary objective of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is to return a pristine sample of carbonaceous material from primitive asteroid (101955) Bennu. Understanding the geospatial context of Bennu is critical to choosing a sample-site and also linking the nature of the sample to the global properties of Bennu and the broader asteroid population. We established a planetary spatial data infrastructure (PSDI) support the primary objective of OSIRIS-REx. OSIRIS-REx is unique among planetary missions in that all remote sensing is performed to support the sample return objective. Prior to sampling, OSIRIS-REx will survey Bennu for nearly two years to select and document the most valuable primary and backup sample sites. During this period, the mission will combine coordinated observations from five science instruments into four thematic maps: deliverability, safety, sampleability, and scientific value. The deliverability map assesses the probability that the flight dynamics team can deliver the spacecraft to the desired location. The safety map indicates the probability that physical hazards are present at the sample-site. The sampleability map quantifies the probability that a sample can be successfully collected from the surface. Finally, the scientific value map shows the probability that the collected sample contains organics and volatiles and also places the sample site in a definitive geological context relative to Bennu's history. The OSIRIS-REx Science Processing and Operations Center (SPOC) serves as the operational PSDI for the mission. The SPOC is tasked with intake of all data from the spacecraft and other ground sources and assimilating these data into a single comprehensive system for processing and presentation. The SPOC centralizes all geographic data of Bennu in a relational database and ensures that standardization and provenance are maintained throughout proximity operations.The SPOC is a live system that handles inputs from spacecraft and science instrument telemetry, and science data producers. It includes multiple levels of validation, both automated and manual to process all data in a robust and reliable manner and eventually deliver it to the NASA Planetary Data System for archive.

SPACE WARPS - I. Crowdsourcing the discovery of gravitational lenses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, Philip J.; Verma, Aprajita; More, Anupreeta; Davis, Christopher P.; More, Surhud; Kapadia, Amit; Parrish, Michael; Snyder, Chris; Wilcox, Julianne; Baeten, Elisabeth; Macmillan, Christine; Cornen, Claude; Baumer, Michael; Simpson, Edwin; Lintott, Chris J.; Miller, David; Paget, Edward; Simpson, Robert; Smith, Arfon M.; Küng, Rafael; Saha, Prasenjit; Collett, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

We describe SPACE WARPS, a novel gravitational lens discovery service that yields samples of high purity and completeness through crowdsourced visual inspection. Carefully produced colour composite images are displayed to volunteers via a web-based classification interface, which records their estimates of the positions of candidate lensed features. Images of simulated lenses, as well as real images which lack lenses, are inserted into the image stream at random intervals; this training set is used to give the volunteers instantaneous feedback on their performance, as well as to calibrate a model of the system that provides dynamical updates to the probability that a classified image contains a lens. Low-probability systems are retired from the site periodically, concentrating the sample towards a set of lens candidates. Having divided 160 deg2 of Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey imaging into some 430 000 overlapping 82 by 82 arcsec tiles and displaying them on the site, we were joined by around 37 000 volunteers who contributed 11 million image classifications over the course of eight months. This stage 1 search reduced the sample to 3381 images containing candidates; these were then refined in stage 2 to yield a sample that we expect to be over 90 per cent complete and 30 per cent pure, based on our analysis of the volunteers performance on training images. We comment on the scalability of the SPACE WARPS system to the wide field survey era, based on our projection that searches of 105 images could be performed by a crowd of 105 volunteers in 6 d.

Recruiting and retaining youth and young adults: challenges and opportunities in survey research for tobacco control.

PubMed

Cantrell, Jennifer; Hair, Elizabeth C; Smith, Alexandria; Bennett, Morgane; Rath, Jessica Miller; Thomas, Randall K; Fahimi, Mansour; Dennis, J Michael; Vallone, Donna

2018-03-01

Evaluation studies of population-based tobacco control interventions often rely on large-scale survey data from numerous respondents across many geographic areas to provide evidence of their effectiveness. Significant challenges for survey research have emerged with the evolving communications landscape, particularly for surveying hard-to-reach populations such as youth and young adults. This study combines the comprehensive coverage of an address-based sampling (ABS) frame with the timeliness of online data collection to develop a nationally representative longitudinal cohort of young people aged 15-21. We constructed an ABS frame, partially supplemented with auxiliary data, to recruit this hard-to-reach sample. Branded and tested mail-based recruitment materials were designed to bring respondents online for screening, consent and surveying. Once enrolled, respondents completed online surveys every 6 months via computer, tablet or smartphone. Numerous strategies were utilized to enhance retention and representativeness RESULTS: Results detail sample performance, representativeness and retention rates as well as device utilization trends for survey completion among youth and young adult respondents. Panel development efforts resulted in a large, nationally representative sample with high retention rates. This study is among the first to employ this hybrid ABS-to-online methodology to recruit and retain youth and young adults in a probability-based online cohort panel. The approach is particularly valuable for conducting research among younger populations as it capitalizes on their increasing access to and comfort with digital communication. We discuss challenges and opportunities of panel recruitment and retention methods in an effort to provide valuable information for tobacco control researchers seeking to obtain representative, population-based samples of youth and young adults in the U.S. as well as across the globe. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Detection probability of cliff-nesting raptors during helicopter and fixed-wing aircraft surveys in western Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Booms, T.L.; Schempf, P.F.; McCaffery, B.J.; Lindberg, M.S.; Fuller, M.R.

2010-01-01

We conducted repeated aerial surveys for breeding cliff-nesting raptors on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) in western Alaska to estimate detection probabilities of Gyrfalcons (Falco rusticolus), Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos), Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus), and also Common Ravens (Corvus corax). Using the program PRESENCE, we modeled detection histories of each species based on single species occupancy modeling. We used different observers during four helicopter replicate surveys in the Kilbuck Mountains and five fixed-wing replicate surveys in the Ingakslugwat Hills near Bethel, AK. During helicopter surveys, Gyrfalcons had the highest detection probability estimate (p^;p^ 0.79; SE 0.05), followed by Golden Eagles (p^=0.68; SE 0.05), Common Ravens (p^=0.45; SE 0.17), and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.10; SE 0.11). Detection probabilities from fixed-wing aircraft in the Ingakslugwat Hills were similar to those from the helicopter in the Kilbuck Mountains for Gyrfalcons and Golden Eagles, but were higher for Common Ravens (p^=0.85; SE 0.06) and Rough-legged Hawks (p^=0.42; SE 0.07). Fixed-wing aircraft provided detection probability estimates and SEs in the Ingakslugwat Hills similar to or better than those from helicopter surveys in the Kilbucks and should be considered for future cliff-nesting raptor surveys where safe, low-altitude flight is possible. Overall, detection probability varied by observer experience and in some cases, by study area/aircraft type.

Spatial patch occupancy patterns of the Lower Keys marsh rabbit

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Nichols, James D.; Morkill, Anne; Anderson, Chad

2011-01-01

Reliable estimates of presence or absence of a species can provide substantial information on management questions related to distribution and habitat use but should incorporate the probability of detection to reduce bias. We surveyed for the endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit (Sylvilagus palustris hefneri) in habitat patches on 5 Florida Key islands, USA, to estimate occupancy and detection probabilities. We derived detection probabilities using spatial replication of plots and evaluated hypotheses that patch location (coastal or interior) and patch size influence occupancy and detection. Results demonstrate that detection probability, given rabbits were present, was <0.5 and suggest that naïve estimates (i.e., estimates without consideration of imperfect detection) of patch occupancy are negatively biased. We found that patch size and location influenced probability of occupancy but not detection. Our findings will be used by Refuge managers to evaluate population trends of Lower Keys marsh rabbits from historical data and to guide management decisions for species recovery. The sampling and analytical methods we used may be useful for researchers and managers of other endangered lagomorphs and cryptic or fossorial animals occupying diverse habitats.

A removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farnsworth, G.L.; Pollock, K.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Simons, T.R.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

2002-01-01

Use of point-count surveys is a popular method for collecting data on abundance and distribution of birds. However, analyses of such data often ignore potential differences in detection probability. We adapted a removal model to directly estimate detection probability during point-count surveys. The model assumes that singing frequency is a major factor influencing probability of detection when birds are surveyed using point counts. This may be appropriate for surveys in which most detections are by sound. The model requires counts to be divided into several time intervals. Point counts are often conducted for 10 min, where the number of birds recorded is divided into those first observed in the first 3 min, the subsequent 2 min, and the last 5 min. We developed a maximum-likelihood estimator for the detectability of birds recorded during counts divided into those intervals. This technique can easily be adapted to point counts divided into intervals of any length. We applied this method to unlimited-radius counts conducted in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. We used model selection criteria to identify whether detection probabilities varied among species, throughout the morning, throughout the season, and among different observers. We found differences in detection probability among species. Species that sing frequently such as Winter Wren (Troglodytes troglodytes) and Acadian Flycatcher (Empidonax virescens) had high detection probabilities (∼90%) and species that call infrequently such as Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus) had low detection probability (36%). We also found detection probabilities varied with the time of day for some species (e.g. thrushes) and between observers for other species. We used the same approach to estimate detection probability and density for a subset of the observations with limited-radius point counts.

The theory precision analyse of RFM localization of satellite remote sensing imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianqing; Xv, Biao

2009-11-01

The tradition method of detecting precision of Rational Function Model(RFM) is to make use of a great deal check points, and it calculates mean square error through comparing calculational coordinate with known coordinate. This method is from theory of probability, through a large number of samples to statistic estimate value of mean square error, we can think its estimate value approaches in its true when samples are well enough. This paper is from angle of survey adjustment, take law of propagation of error as the theory basis, and it calculates theory precision of RFM localization. Then take the SPOT5 three array imagery as experiment data, and the result of traditional method and narrated method in the paper are compared, while has confirmed tradition method feasible, and answered its theory precision question from the angle of survey adjustment.

Newly discovered Wolf-Rayet and weak emission-line central stars of planetary nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DePew, K.; Parker, Q. A.; Miszalski, B.; De Marco, O.; Frew, D. J.; Acker, A.; Kovacevic, A. V.; Sharp, R. G.

2011-07-01

We present the spectra of 32 previously unpublished confirmed and candidate Wolf-Rayet ([WR]) and weak emission-line (WELS) central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPNe). 18 stars have been discovered in the Macquarie/AAO/Strasbourg Hα (MASH) PN survey sample, and we have also uncovered 14 confirmed and candidate [WR]s and WELS among the CSPNe of previously known PNe. Spectral classifications have been undertaken using both Acker & Neiner and Crowther, De Marco & Barlow schemes. 22 members in this sample are identified as probable [WR]s; the remaining 10 appear to be WELS. Observations undertaken as part of the MASH spectroscopic survey have now increased the number of known [WR]s by ˜30 per cent. This will permit a better analysis of [WR] subclass distribution, metallicity effects and evolutionary sequences in these uncommon objects.

Improving removal-based estimates of abundance by sampling a population of spatially distinct subpopulations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Jelks, H.L.; Jordan, F.

2005-01-01

 A statistical modeling framework is described for estimating the abundances of spatially distinct subpopulations of animals surveyed using removal sampling. To illustrate this framework, hierarchical models are developed using the Poisson and negative-binomial distributions to model variation in abundance among subpopulations and using the beta distribution to model variation in capture probabilities. These models are fitted to the removal counts observed in a survey of a federally endangered fish species. The resulting estimates of abundance have similar or better precision than those computed using the conventional approach of analyzing the removal counts of each subpopulation separately. Extension of the hierarchical models to include spatial covariates of abundance is straightforward and may be used to identify important features of an animal's habitat or to predict the abundance of animals at unsampled locations.

Prevalence of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder in the Kashmir Valley

PubMed Central

Lenglet, Annick; Ariti, Cono; Shah, Showkat; Shah, Helal; Ara, Shabnum; Viney, Kerri; Janes, Simon; Pintaldi, Giovanni

2017-01-01

Background Following the partition of India in 1947, the Kashmir Valley has been subject to continual political insecurity and ongoing conflict, the region remains highly militarised. We conducted a representative cross-sectional population-based survey of adults to estimate the prevalence and predictors of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley. Methods Between October and December 2015, we interviewed 5519 out of 5600 invited participants, ≥18 years of age, randomly sampled using a probability proportional to size cluster sampling design. We estimated the prevalence of a probable psychological disorder using the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25) and the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire (HTQ-16). Both screening instruments had been culturally adapted and translated. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for developing symptoms of psychological distress. Findings The estimated prevalence of mental distress in adults in the Kashmir Valley was 45% (95% CI 42.6 to 47.0). We identified 41% (95% CI 39.2 to 43.4) of adults with probable depression, 26% (95% CI 23.8 to 27.5) with probable anxiety and 19% (95% CI 17.5 to 21.2) with probable PTSD. The three disorders were associated with the following characteristics: being female, over 55 years of age, having had no formal education, living in a rural area and being widowed/divorced or separated. A dose–response association was found between the number of traumatic events experienced or witnessed and all three mental disorders. Interpretation The implementation of mental health awareness programmes, interventions aimed at high risk groups and addressing trauma-related symptoms from all causes are needed in the Kashmir Valley. PMID:29082026

The Uses of Television and Their Educational Implications; Preliminary Findings from a Survey of Adult and Adolescent New York Television Viewers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gans, Herbert J.

To collect data on how to make television a more effective learning instrument outside of the classroom, a standard probability sample with quotas consisting of 200 adults and 200 adolescents living in New York City was interviewed to study how people use TV, their attitudes toward various types of programing, and their viewing preferences.…

Body Dimensions and Proportions, White and Negro Children, 6-11 Years; United States. National Health Survey Series 11, No. 143

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malina, Robert M.; And Others

The fifth in a series of reports presenting analyses and discussions of data on height, weight, and 28 other body measurements taken from a probability sample of noninstitutionalized children in the United States aged 6-11 years, this document compares the growth patterns of white and Negro children for 20 body measurements. Emphasis is placed on…

Development of monitoring protocols to detect change in rocky intertidal communities of Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irvine, Gail V.

2010-01-01

Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in southeastern Alaska includes extensive coastlines representing a major proportion of all coastlines held by the National Park Service. The marine plants and invertebrates that occupy intertidal shores form highly productive communities that are ecologically important to a number of vertebrate and invertebrate consumers and that are vulnerable to human disturbances. To better understand these communities and their sensitivity, it is important to obtain information on species abundances over space and time. During field studies from 1997 to 2001, I investigated probability-based rocky intertidal monitoring designs that allow inference of results to similar habitat within the bay and that reduce bias. Aerial surveys of a subset of intertidal habitat indicated that the original target habitat of bedrock-dominated sites with slope less than or equal to 30 degrees was rare. This finding illustrated the value of probability-based surveys and led to a shift in the target habitat type to more mixed rocky habitat with steeper slopes. Subsequently, I investigated different sampling methods and strategies for their relative power to detect changes in the abundances of the predominant sessile intertidal taxa: barnacles -Balanomorpha, the mussel Mytilus trossulus and the rockweed Fucus distichus subsp. evanescens. I found that lower-intensity sampling of 25 randomly selected sites (= coarse-grained sampling) provided a greater ability to detect changes in the abundances of these taxa than did more intensive sampling of 6 sites (= fine-grained sampling). Because of its greater power, the coarse-grained sampling scheme was adopted in subsequent years. This report provides detailed analyses of the 4 years of data and evaluates the relative effect of different sampling attributes and management-set parameters on the ability of the sampling to detect changes in the abundances of these taxa. The intent was to provide managers with information to guide design choices for intertidal monitoring. I found that the coarse-grained surveys, as conducted from 1998 to 2001, had power ranging from 0.68 to 1.0 to detect 10 percent annual changes in the abundances of these predominant sessile species. The information gained through intertidal monitoring would be useful in assessing changes due to climate (including ocean acidification), invasive species, trampling effects, and oil spills.

CENTENNIAL MOUNTAINS WILDERNESS STUDY AREA, MONTANA AND IDAHO.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witkind, Irving J.; Ridenour, James

1984-01-01

A mineral survey conducted within the Centennial Mountains Wilderness study area in Montana and Idaho showed large areas of probable and substantiated resource potential for phosphate. Byproducts that may be derived from processing the phosphate include vanadium, chromium, uranium, silver, fluorine, and the rare earths, lanthanum and yttrium. Results of a geochemical sampling program suggest that there is little promise for the occurrence of base and precious metals in the area. Although the area contains other nonmetallic deposits, such as coal, building stone, and pumiceous ash they are not considered as mineral resources. There is a probable resource potential for oil and gas and significant amounts may underlie the area around the Peet Creek and Odell Creek anticlines.

Testing metapopulation concepts: effects of patch characteristics and neighborhood occupancy on the dynamics of an endangered lagomorph

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Hughes, Phillip T.; Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

2014-01-01

Metapopulation ecology is a field that is richer in theory than in empirical results. Many existing empirical studies use an incidence function approach based on spatial patterns and key assumptions about extinction and colonization rates. Here we recast these assumptions as hypotheses to be tested using 18 years of historic detection survey data combined with four years of data from a new monitoring program for the Lower Keys marsh rabbit. We developed a new model to estimate probabilities of local extinction and colonization in the presence of nondetection, while accounting for estimated occupancy levels of neighboring patches. We used model selection to identify important drivers of population turnover and estimate the effective neighborhood size for this system. Several key relationships related to patch size and isolation that are often assumed in metapopulation models were supported: patch size was negatively related to the probability of extinction and positively related to colonization, and estimated occupancy of neighboring patches was positively related to colonization and negatively related to extinction probabilities. This latter relationship suggested the existence of rescue effects. In our study system, we inferred that coastal patches experienced higher probabilities of extinction and colonization than interior patches. Interior patches exhibited higher occupancy probabilities and may serve as refugia, permitting colonization of coastal patches following disturbances such as hurricanes and storm surges. Our modeling approach should be useful for incorporating neighbor occupancy into future metapopulation analyses and in dealing with other historic occupancy surveys that may not include the recommended levels of sampling replication.

Evaluating detection probabilities for American marten in the Black Hills, South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Joshua B.; Jenks, Jonathan A.; Klaver, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Assessing the effectiveness of monitoring techniques designed to determine presence of forest carnivores, such as American marten (Martes americana), is crucial for validation of survey results. Although comparisons between techniques have been made, little attention has been paid to the issue of detection probabilities (p). Thus, the underlying assumption has been that detection probabilities equal 1.0. We used presence-absence data obtained from a track-plate survey in conjunction with results from a saturation-trapping study to derive detection probabilities when marten occurred at high (>2 marten/10.2 km2) and low (???1 marten/10.2 km2) densities within 8 10.2-km2 quadrats. Estimated probability of detecting marten in high-density quadrats was p = 0.952 (SE = 0.047), whereas the detection probability for low-density quadrats was considerably lower (p = 0.333, SE = 0.136). Our results indicated that failure to account for imperfect detection could lead to an underestimation of marten presence in 15-52% of low-density quadrats in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We recommend that repeated site-survey data be analyzed to assess detection probabilities when documenting carnivore survey results.

Interlaboratory Reproducibility and Proficiency Testing within the Human Papillomavirus Cervical Cancer Screening Program in Catalonia, Spain

PubMed Central

Ibáñez, R.; Félez-Sánchez, M.; Godínez, J. M.; Guardià, C.; Caballero, E.; Juve, R.; Combalia, N.; Bellosillo, B.; Cuevas, D.; Moreno-Crespi, J.; Pons, L.; Autonell, J.; Gutierrez, C.; Ordi, J.; de Sanjosé, S.

2014-01-01

In Catalonia, a screening protocol for cervical cancer, including human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing using the Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay, was implemented in 2006. In order to monitor interlaboratory reproducibility, a proficiency testing (PT) survey of the HPV samples was launched in 2008. The aim of this study was to explore the repeatability of the HC2 assay's performance. Participating laboratories provided 20 samples annually, 5 randomly chosen samples from each of the following relative light unit (RLU) intervals: <0.5, 0.5 to 0.99, 1 to 9.99, and ≥10. Kappa statistics were used to determine the agreement levels between the original and the PT readings. The nature and origin of the discrepant results were calculated by bootstrapping. A total of 946 specimens were retested. The kappa values were 0.91 for positive/negative categorical classification and 0.79 for the four RLU intervals studied. Sample retesting yielded systematically lower RLU values than the original test (P < 0.005), independently of the time elapsed between the two determinations (median, 53 days), possibly due to freeze-thaw cycles. The probability for a sample to show clinically discrepant results upon retesting was a function of the RLU value; samples with RLU values in the 0.5 to 5 interval showed 10.80% probability to yield discrepant results (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.86 to 14.33) compared to 0.85% probability for samples outside this interval (95% CI, 0.17 to 1.69). Globally, the HC2 assay shows high interlaboratory concordance. We have identified differential confidence thresholds and suggested the guidelines for interlaboratory PT in the future, as analytical quality assessment of HPV DNA detection remains a central component of the screening program for cervical cancer prevention. PMID:24574284

Detection of sea otters in boat-based surveys of Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Bodkin, James L.; Costa, Daniel P.

1995-01-01

Boat-based surveys have been commonly used to monitor sea otter populations, but there has been little quantitative work to evaluate detection biases that may affect these surveys. We used ground-based observers to investigate sea otter detection probabilities in a boat-based survey of Prince William Sound, Alaska. We estimated that 30% of the otters present on surveyed transects were not detected by boat crews. Approximately half (53%) of the undetected otters were missed because the otters left the transects, apparently in response to the approaching boat. Unbiased estimates of detection probabilities will be required for obtaining unbiased population estimates from boat-based surveys of sea otters. Therefore, boat-based surveys should include methods to estimate sea otter detection probabilities under the conditions specific to each survey. Unbiased estimation of detection probabilities with ground-based observers requires either that the ground crews detect all of the otters in observed subunits, or that there are no errors in determining which crews saw each detected otter. Ground-based observer methods may be appropriate in areas where nearly all of the sea otter habitat is potentially visible from ground-based vantage points.

Linkage of Viral Sequences among HIV-Infected Village Residents in Botswana: Estimation of Linkage Rates in the Presence of Missing Data

PubMed Central

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Wang, Rui; Novitsky, Vladimir; De Gruttola, Victor

2014-01-01

Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40–100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data. PMID:24415932

Linkage of viral sequences among HIV-infected village residents in Botswana: estimation of linkage rates in the presence of missing data.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Wang, Rui; Novitsky, Vladimir; De Gruttola, Victor

2014-01-01

Linkage analysis is useful in investigating disease transmission dynamics and the effect of interventions on them, but estimates of probabilities of linkage between infected people from observed data can be biased downward when missingness is informative. We investigate variation in the rates at which subjects' viral genotypes link across groups defined by viral load (low/high) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) status using blood samples from household surveys in the Northeast sector of Mochudi, Botswana. The probability of obtaining a sequence from a sample varies with viral load; samples with low viral load are harder to amplify. Pairwise genetic distances were estimated from aligned nucleotide sequences of HIV-1C env gp120. It is first shown that the probability that randomly selected sequences are linked can be estimated consistently from observed data. This is then used to develop estimates of the probability that a sequence from one group links to at least one sequence from another group under the assumption of independence across pairs. Furthermore, a resampling approach is developed that accounts for the presence of correlation across pairs, with diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the method. Sequences were obtained for 65% of subjects with high viral load (HVL, n = 117), 54% of subjects with low viral load but not on ART (LVL, n = 180), and 45% of subjects on ART (ART, n = 126). The probability of linkage between two individuals is highest if both have HVL, and lowest if one has LVL and the other has LVL or is on ART. Linkage across groups is high for HVL and lower for LVL and ART. Adjustment for missing data increases the group-wise linkage rates by 40-100%, and changes the relative rates between groups. Bias in inferences regarding HIV viral linkage that arise from differential ability to genotype samples can be reduced by appropriate methods for accommodating missing data.

Integrated magnetic, gravity, and GPR surveys to locate the probable source of hydrocarbon contamination in Sharm El-Sheikh area, south Sinai, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morsy, Mona; Rashed, Mohamed

2013-01-01

Sharm El-Sheikh waters were suddenly hit by hydrocarbon spills which created a serious threat to the prosperous tourism industry in and around the city. Analysis of soil samples, water samples, and seabed samples collected in and around the contaminated bay area showed anomalous levels of hydrocarbons. An integrated geophysical investigation, using magnetic, gravity, and ground penetrating radar geophysical tools, was conducted in the headland overlooking the contaminated bay in order to delineate the possible subsurface source of contamination. The results of the geophysical investigations revealed three underground manmade reinforced concrete tanks and a complicated network of buried steel pipes in addition to other unidentified buried objects. The depths and dimensions of the discovered objects were determined. Geophysical investigations also revealed the presence of a north-south oblique slip fault running through the eastern part of the studied area. Excavations, conducted later on, confirmed the presence of one of the tanks delineated by the geophysical surveys.

An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

2011-01-01

The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

Psychopathology among New York city public school children 6 months after September 11.

PubMed

Hoven, Christina W; Duarte, Cristiane S; Lucas, Christopher P; Wu, Ping; Mandell, Donald J; Goodwin, Renee D; Cohen, Michael; Balaban, Victor; Woodruff, Bradley A; Bin, Fan; Musa, George J; Mei, Lori; Cantor, Pamela A; Aber, J Lawrence; Cohen, Patricia; Susser, Ezra

2005-05-01

Children exposed to a traumatic event may be at higher risk for developing mental disorders. The prevalence of child psychopathology, however, has not been assessed in a population-based sample exposed to different levels of mass trauma or across a range of disorders. To determine prevalence and correlates of probable mental disorders among New York City, NY, public school students 6 months following the September 11, 2001, World Trade Center attack. Survey. New York City public schools. A citywide, random, representative sample of 8236 students in grades 4 through 12, including oversampling in closest proximity to the World Trade Center site (ground zero) and other high-risk areas. Children were screened for probable mental disorders with the Diagnostic Interview Schedule for Children Predictive Scales. One or more of 6 probable anxiety/depressive disorders were identified in 28.6% of all children. The most prevalent were probable agoraphobia (14.8%), probable separation anxiety (12.3%), and probable posttraumatic stress disorder (10.6%). Higher levels of exposure correspond to higher prevalence for all probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Girls and children in grades 4 and 5 were the most affected. In logistic regression analyses, child's exposure (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62), exposure of a child's family member (adjusted odds ratio, 1.80), and the child's prior trauma (adjusted odds ratio, 2.01) were related to increased likelihood of probable anxiety/depressive disorders. Results were adjusted for different types of exposure, sociodemographic characteristics, and child mental health service use. A high proportion of New York City public school children had a probable mental disorder 6 months after September 11, 2001. The data suggest that there is a relationship between level of exposure to trauma and likelihood of child anxiety/depressive disorders in the community. The results support the need to apply wide-area epidemiological approaches to mental health assessment after any large-scale disaster.

Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David

2016-01-01

Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples.

Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men

PubMed Central

Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh (Jane); Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

2017-01-01

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents’ identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as “appealing” than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed. PMID:28727762

Sexual diversity in the United States: Results from a nationally representative probability sample of adult women and men.

PubMed

Herbenick, Debby; Bowling, Jessamyn; Fu, Tsung-Chieh Jane; Dodge, Brian; Guerra-Reyes, Lucia; Sanders, Stephanie

2017-01-01

In 2015, we conducted a cross-sectional, Internet-based, U.S. nationally representative probability survey of 2,021 adults (975 men, 1,046 women) focused on a broad range of sexual behaviors. Individuals invited to participate were from the GfK KnowledgePanel®. The survey was titled the 2015 Sexual Exploration in America Study and survey completion took about 12 to 15 minutes. The survey was confidential and the researchers never had access to respondents' identifiers. Respondents reported on demographic items, lifetime and recent sexual behaviors, and the appeal of 50+ sexual behaviors. Most (>80%) reported lifetime masturbation, vaginal sex, and oral sex. Lifetime anal sex was reported by 43% of men (insertive) and 37% of women (receptive). Common lifetime sexual behaviors included wearing sexy lingerie/underwear (75% women, 26% men), sending/receiving digital nude/semi-nude photos (54% women, 65% men), reading erotic stories (57% of participants), public sex (≥43%), role-playing (≥22%), tying/being tied up (≥20%), spanking (≥30%), and watching sexually explicit videos/DVDs (60% women, 82% men). Having engaged in threesomes (10% women, 18% men) and playful whipping (≥13%) were less common. Lifetime group sex, sex parties, taking a sexuality class/workshop, and going to BDSM parties were uncommon (each <8%). More Americans identified behaviors as "appealing" than had engaged in them. Romantic/affectionate behaviors were among those most commonly identified as appealing for both men and women. The appeal of particular behaviors was associated with greater odds that the individual had ever engaged in the behavior. This study contributes to our understanding of more diverse adult sexual behaviors than has previously been captured in U.S. nationally representative probability surveys. Implications for sexuality educators, clinicians, and individuals in the general population are discussed.

National Survey on Access, Use and Promotion of Rational Use of Medicines (PNAUM): household survey component methods

PubMed Central

Mengue, Sotero Serrate; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Tavares, Noemia Urruth Leão; Pizzol, Tatiane da Silva Dal; Oliveira, Maria Auxiliadora; Arrais, Paulo Sérgio Dourado; Ramos, Luiz Roberto; Farias, Mareni Rocha; Luiza, Vera Lucia; Bernal, Regina Tomie Ivata; de Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe methodological aspects of the household survey National Survey on Access, Use and Promotion of Rational Use of Medicines (PNAUM) related to sampling design and implementation, the actual obtained sample, instruments and fieldwork. METHODS A cross-sectional, population-based study with probability sampling in three stages of the population living in households located in Brazilian urban areas. Fieldwork was carried out between September 2013 and February 2014. The data collection instrument included questions related to: information about households, residents and respondents; chronic diseases and medicines used; use of health services; acute diseases and events treated with drugs; use of contraceptives; use of pharmacy services; behaviors that may affect drug use; package inserts and packaging; lifestyle and health insurance. RESULTS In total, 41,433 interviews were carried out in 20,404 households and 576 urban clusters corresponding to 586 census tracts distributed in the five Brazilian regions, according to eight domains defined by age and gender. CONCLUSIONS The results of the survey may be used as a baseline for future studies aiming to assess the impact of government action on drug access and use. For local studies using a compatible method, PNAUM may serve as a reference point to evaluate variations in space and population. With a comprehensive evaluation of drug-related aspects, PNAUM is a major source of data for a variety of analyses to be carried out both at academic and government level. PMID:27982381

Smoking estimates from around the world: data from the first 17 participating countries in the World Mental Health Survey Consortium

PubMed Central

Storr, Carla L; Cheng, Hui; Alonso, Jordi; Angermeyer, Matthias; Bruffaerts, Ronny; de Girolamo, Giovanni; de Graaf, Ron; Gureje, Oye; Karam, Elie G; Kostyuchenko, Stanislav; Lee, Sing; Lepine, Jean-Pierre; Mora, Maria Elena Medina; Myer, Landon; Neumark, Yehuda; Posada-Villa, Jose; Watanabe, Makoto; Wells, J Elisabeth; Kessler, Ronald C; Anthony, James C

2014-01-01

Objective To contribute new multinational findings on basic descriptive features of smoking and cessation, based upon standardised community surveys of adults residing in seven low-income and middle-income countries and 10 higher-income countries from all regions of the world. Methods Data were collected using standardised interviews and community probability sample survey methods conducted as part of the WHO World Mental Health Surveys Initiative. Demographic and socioeconomic correlates of smoking are studied using cross-tabulation and logistic regression approaches. Within-country sample weights were applied with variance estimation appropriate for complex sample survey designs. Results Estimated prevalence of smoking experience (history of ever smoking) and current smoking varied across the countries under study. In all but four countries, one out of every four adults currently smoked. In higher-income countries, estimated proportions of former smokers (those who had quit) were roughly double the corresponding estimates for most low-income and middle-income countries. Characteristics of smokers varied within individual countries, and in relation to the World Bank's low-medium-high gradient of economic development. In stark contrast to a sturdy male-female difference in the uptake of smoking seen in each country, there is no consistent sex-associated pattern in the odds of remaining a smoker (versus quitting). Conclusion The World Mental Health Surveys estimates complement existing global tobacco monitoring efforts. The observed global diversity of associations with smoking and smoking cessation underscore reasons for implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control provisions and prompt local adaptation of prevention and control interventions. PMID:19965796

Receiving treatment, labor force activity, and work performance among people with psychiatric disorders: results from a population survey.

PubMed

Waghorn, Geoffrey; Chant, David

2011-12-01

Standard treatments for psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, depression and anxiety disorders are generally expected to benefit individuals, employers, and the wider community through improvements in work-functioning and productivity. We repeated a previous secondary investigation of receiving treatment, labor force activity and self-reported work performance among people with ICD-10 psychiatric disorders, in comparison to people with other types of health conditions. Data were collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2003 repeating a survey administered in 1998 using representative multistage sampling strategies. The 2003 household probability sample consisted of 36,241 working age individuals. Consistent with the previous secondary investigation based on the 1998 survey administration, receiving treatment was consistently associated with non-participation in the labor force, and was negatively associated with work performance. At a population level, receiving treatment was negatively associated with labor force activity and work performance. The stability of these results in two independent surveys highlights the need to investigate the longitudinal relationships between evidence-based treatments for psychiatric conditions as applied in real-world settings, and labor force participation and work performance outcomes.

Probabilistic mapping of descriptive health status responses onto health state utilities using Bayesian networks: an empirical analysis converting SF-12 into EQ-5D utility index in a national US sample.

PubMed

Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N

2011-05-01

As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.

Incorporating availability for detection in estimates of bird abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.; Marshall, M.R.; Mattice, J.A.; Brauning, D.W.

2007-01-01

Several bird-survey methods have been proposed that provide an estimated detection probability so that bird-count statistics can be used to estimate bird abundance. However, some of these estimators adjust counts of birds observed by the probability that a bird is detected and assume that all birds are available to be detected at the time of the survey. We marked male Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii) and Grasshopper Sparrows (A. savannarum) and monitored their behavior during May-July 2002 and 2003 to estimate the proportion of time they were available for detection. We found that the availability of Henslow's Sparrows declined in late June to <10% for 5- or 10-min point counts when a male had to sing and be visible to the observer; but during 20 May-19 June, males were available for detection 39.1% (SD = 27.3) of the time for 5-min point counts and 43.9% (SD = 28.9) of the time for 10-min point counts (n = 54). We detected no temporal changes in availability for Grasshopper Sparrows, but estimated availability to be much lower for 5-min point counts (10.3%, SD = 12.2) than for 10-min point counts (19.2%, SD = 22.3) when males had to be visible and sing during the sampling period (n = 80). For distance sampling, we estimated the availability of Henslow's Sparrows to be 44.2% (SD = 29.0) and the availability of Grasshopper Sparrows to be 20.6% (SD = 23.5). We show how our estimates of availability can be incorporated in the abundance and variance estimators for distance sampling and modify the abundance and variance estimators for the double-observer method. Methods that directly estimate availability from bird counts but also incorporate detection probabilities need further development and will be important for obtaining unbiased estimates of abundance for these species.

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations.

PubMed

Mercader, R J; Siegert, N W; McCullough, D G

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

Social Support and Exclusive Breast feeding among Canadian Women.

PubMed

Laugen, Chris M; Islam, Nazrul; Janssen, Patricia A

2016-09-01

The World Health Organization recommendation for exclusive breast feeding for 6 months has been endorsed by Health Canada, the Canadian Pediatric Society, Dietitians of Canada, and the Breastfeeding Committee for Canada as of 2012. This study examines whether social support is associated with exclusive breast feeding up to 6 months among Canadian mothers. We utilised data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and limited our sample to mothers who gave birth in the 5 years prior to the 2009-2010 survey (n = 2133). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between exclusive breast feeding and four dimensions of social support: (i) tangible, (ii) affectionate, (iii) positive social interaction, and (iv) emotional and informational, based on the Medical Outcomes Study Social Support Scale. Absolute and relative differences in the probability of breast feeding exclusively and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated. In adjusted models, differences in the probability of exclusive breast feeding for 6 months were not different among women with high vs. low social support. The association between social support and breastfeeding exclusively was modified by education level, with significantly higher probability of breast feeding exclusively among women with lower education and high vs. low levels of tangible and affectionate support. Among women with education below a high school level, high tangible and affectionate support significantly increased probability of exclusive breast feeding for 6 months in this study. Efforts to encourage exclusive breast feeding need to address social support for mothers, especially those with lower education. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

2dFLenS and KiDS: determining source redshift distributions with cross-correlations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Andrew; Blake, Chris; Amon, Alexandra; Erben, Thomas; Glazebrook, Karl; Harnois-Deraps, Joachim; Heymans, Catherine; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Joudaki, Shahab; Klaes, Dominik; Kuijken, Konrad; Lidman, Chris; Marin, Felipe A.; McFarland, John; Morrison, Christopher B.; Parkinson, David; Poole, Gregory B.; Radovich, Mario; Wolf, Christian

2017-03-01

We develop a statistical estimator to infer the redshift probability distribution of a photometric sample of galaxies from its angular cross-correlation in redshift bins with an overlapping spectroscopic sample. This estimator is a minimum-variance weighted quadratic function of the data: a quadratic estimator. This extends and modifies the methodology presented by McQuinn & White. The derived source redshift distribution is degenerate with the source galaxy bias, which must be constrained via additional assumptions. We apply this estimator to constrain source galaxy redshift distributions in the Kilo-Degree imaging survey through cross-correlation with the spectroscopic 2-degree Field Lensing Survey, presenting results first as a binned step-wise distribution in the range z < 0.8, and then building a continuous distribution using a Gaussian process model. We demonstrate the robustness of our methodology using mock catalogues constructed from N-body simulations, and comparisons with other techniques for inferring the redshift distribution.

Virgo Intergalactic Globulars from the Sloan Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregg, Michael; West, Michael

2017-07-01

We have identified a new sample of Virgo intergalactic globular clusters (IGCs) and ultra compact dwarfs (UCDs) which have been serendipitously observed to date in Sloan Survey spectroscopy. There are 23 new objects with secure redshifts, all relatively red point sources with reliable velocities placing them at Virgo distances. They are spread widely across Virgo, significantly extending the spatial distribution of Virgo IGCs and UCDs to regions outside the well-studied M87 core region. The new sample are generally fainter, bluer, and probably more metal poor on average than the more centrally located, previously known objects. This systematic change carries information about the formation and continued evolution by accretion of the Virgo cluster, indicating a transition to less massive and less luminous objects being tidally disrupted in the outskirts now and in the recent past, compared to conditions in the inner cluster at early epochs.

"Unequal opportunity": neighbourhood disadvantage and the chance to buy illegal drugs.

PubMed

Storr, C L; Chen, C-Y; Anthony, J C

2004-03-01

This study investigates whether subgroups of people living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods may be more likely to come into contact with drug dealers as compared with persons living in more advantaged areas, with due attention to male-female and race-ethnicity differences. Standardised survey data collected using stratified, multistage area probability sampling. United States of America, 1998. Nationally representative sample of household residents age 12 or older (n = 25 500). Evidence supports an inference that women are less likely to be approached by someone selling illegal drugs. The study found no more than modest and generally null racial and ethnicity differences, even for residents living within socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods, where chances to buy illegal drugs are found to be more common. Limitations of survey data always merit attention, but this study evidence lends support to the inference that physical and social characteristics of a neighbourhood can set the stage for opportunities to become involved with drugs.

Selections from 2017: Computers Help Us Map Our Home

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-12-01

Editors note:In these last two weeks of 2017, well be looking at a few selections that we havent yet discussed on AAS Nova from among the most-downloaded paperspublished in AAS journals this year. The usual posting schedule will resume in January.Machine-Learned Identification of RR Lyrae Stars from Sparse, Multi-Band Data: The PS1 SamplePublished April2017Main takeaway:A sample of RR Lyrae variable stars was built from thePan-STARRS1 (PS1) survey by a team led byBranimir Sesar (Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Germany). The sample of45,000 starsrepresentsthe widest (three-fourthsof the sky) and deepest (reaching 120 kpc) sample of RR Lyrae stars to date.Why its interesting:Its challengingto understand the overall shape and behaviorof our galaxy because were stuck on the inside of it. RR Lyrae stars are a useful tool for this purpose: they can be used as tracers to map out the Milky Ways halo. The authors large sample of RR Lyrae stars from PS1 combined withproper-motion measurements from Gaia and radial-velocity measurements from multi-object spectroscopic surveys could become thepremier source for studying the structure, kinematics, and the gravitational potential of our galaxys outskirts.How they were found:The black dots show the distribution of the 45,000 probable RR Lyrae stars in the authors sample. [Sesar et al. 2017]The 45,000 stars in this sample were selected not by humans, but by computer.The authors used machine-learning algorithms to examine the light curvesin the Pan-STARRS1 sample and identify the characteristic brightness variations of RR Lyrae stars lying in the galactic halo. These techniques resulted in a very pure and complete sample, and the authors suggest that this approachmay translate well to othersparse,multi-band data sets such asthat from the upcomingLarge Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) galactic plane sub-survey.CitationBranimir Sesar et al 2017 AJ 153 204. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/aa661b

Statistical characterization of a large geochemical database and effect of sample size

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, C.; Manheim, F.T.; Hinde, J.; Grossman, J.N.

2005-01-01

The authors investigated statistical distributions for concentrations of chemical elements from the National Geochemical Survey (NGS) database of the U.S. Geological Survey. At the time of this study, the NGS data set encompasses 48,544 stream sediment and soil samples from the conterminous United States analyzed by ICP-AES following a 4-acid near-total digestion. This report includes 27 elements: Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, P, Ti, Ba, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Ga, La, Li, Mn, Nb, Nd, Ni, Pb, Sc, Sr, Th, V, Y and Zn. The goal and challenge for the statistical overview was to delineate chemical distributions in a complex, heterogeneous data set spanning a large geographic range (the conterminous United States), and many different geological provinces and rock types. After declustering to create a uniform spatial sample distribution with 16,511 samples, histograms and quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots were employed to delineate subpopulations that have coherent chemical and mineral affinities. Probability groupings are discerned by changes in slope (kinks) on the plots. Major rock-forming elements, e.g., Al, Ca, K and Na, tend to display linear segments on normal Q-Q plots. These segments can commonly be linked to petrologic or mineralogical associations. For example, linear segments on K and Na plots reflect dilution of clay minerals by quartz sand (low in K and Na). Minor and trace element relationships are best displayed on lognormal Q-Q plots. These sensitively reflect discrete relationships in subpopulations within the wide range of the data. For example, small but distinctly log-linear subpopulations for Pb, Cu, Zn and Ag are interpreted to represent ore-grade enrichment of naturally occurring minerals such as sulfides. None of the 27 chemical elements could pass the test for either normal or lognormal distribution on the declustered data set. Part of the reasons relate to the presence of mixtures of subpopulations and outliers. Random samples of the data set with successively smaller numbers of data points showed that few elements passed standard statistical tests for normality or log-normality until sample size decreased to a few hundred data points. Large sample size enhances the power of statistical tests, and leads to rejection of most statistical hypotheses for real data sets. For large sample sizes (e.g., n > 1000), graphical methods such as histogram, stem-and-leaf, and probability plots are recommended for rough judgement of probability distribution if needed. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inadequate Iodine Intake in Population Groups Defined by Age, Life Stage and Vegetarian Dietary Practice in a Norwegian Convenience Sample.

PubMed

Brantsæter, Anne Lise; Knutsen, Helle Katrine; Johansen, Nina Cathrine; Nyheim, Kristine Aastad; Erlund, Iris; Meltzer, Helle Margrete; Henjum, Sigrun

2018-02-17

Inadequate iodine intake has been identified in populations considered iodine replete for decades. The objective of the current study is to evaluate urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and the probability of adequate iodine intake in subgroups of the Norwegian population defined by age, life stage and vegetarian dietary practice. In a cross-sectional survey, we assessed the probability of adequate iodine intake by two 24-h food diaries and UIC from two fasting morning spot urine samples in 276 participants. The participants included children ( n = 47), adolescents ( n = 46), adults ( n = 71), the elderly ( n = 23), pregnant women ( n = 45), ovo-lacto vegetarians ( n = 25), and vegans ( n = 19). In all participants combined, the median (95% CI) UIC was 101 (90, 110) µg/L, median (25th, 75th percentile) calculated iodine intake was 112 (77, 175) µg/day and median (25th, 75th percentile) estimated usual iodine intake was 101 (75, 150) µg/day. According to WHOs criteria for evaluation of median UIC, iodine intake was inadequate in the elderly, pregnant women, vegans and non-pregnant women of childbearing age. Children had the highest (82%) and vegans the lowest (14%) probability of adequate iodine intake according to reported food and supplement intakes. This study confirms the need for monitoring iodine intake and status in nationally representative study samples in Norway.

Inadequate Iodine Intake in Population Groups Defined by Age, Life Stage and Vegetarian Dietary Practice in a Norwegian Convenience Sample

PubMed Central

Knutsen, Helle Katrine; Johansen, Nina Cathrine; Nyheim, Kristine Aastad; Erlund, Iris; Meltzer, Helle Margrete

2018-01-01

Inadequate iodine intake has been identified in populations considered iodine replete for decades. The objective of the current study is to evaluate urinary iodine concentration (UIC) and the probability of adequate iodine intake in subgroups of the Norwegian population defined by age, life stage and vegetarian dietary practice. In a cross-sectional survey, we assessed the probability of adequate iodine intake by two 24-h food diaries and UIC from two fasting morning spot urine samples in 276 participants. The participants included children (n = 47), adolescents (n = 46), adults (n = 71), the elderly (n = 23), pregnant women (n = 45), ovo-lacto vegetarians (n = 25), and vegans (n = 19). In all participants combined, the median (95% CI) UIC was 101 (90, 110) µg/L, median (25th, 75th percentile) calculated iodine intake was 112 (77, 175) µg/day and median (25th, 75th percentile) estimated usual iodine intake was 101 (75, 150) µg/day. According to WHOs criteria for evaluation of median UIC, iodine intake was inadequate in the elderly, pregnant women, vegans and non-pregnant women of childbearing age. Children had the highest (82%) and vegans the lowest (14%) probability of adequate iodine intake according to reported food and supplement intakes. This study confirms the need for monitoring iodine intake and status in nationally representative study samples in Norway. PMID:29462974

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

2004-01-01

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

A Statistical Study of Serum Cholesterol Level by Gender and Race.

PubMed

Tharu, Bhikhari Prasad; Tsokos, Chris P

2017-07-25

Cholesterol level (CL) is growing concerned as health issue in human health since it is considered one of the causes in heart diseases. A study of cholesterol level can provide insight about its nature and characteristics. A cross-sectional study. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANS) II was conducted on a probability sample of approximately 28,000 persons in the USA and cholesterol level is obtained from laboratory results. Samples were selected so that certain population groups thought to be at high risk of malnutrition. Study included 11,864 persons for CL cases with 9,602 males and 2,262 females with races: whites, blacks, and others. Non-parametric statistical tests and goodness of fit test have been used to identify probability distributions. The study concludes that the cholesterol level exhibits significant racial and gender differences in terms of probability distributions. The study has concluded that white people are relatively higher at risk than black people to have risk line and high risk cholesterol. The study clearly indicates that black males normally have higher cholesterol. Females have lower variation in cholesterol than males. There exists gender and racial discrepancies in cholesterol which has been identified as lognormal and gamma probability distributions. White individuals seem to be at a higher risk of having high risk cholesterol level than blacks. Females tend to have higher variation in cholesterol level than males.

Probability sampling in legal cases: Kansas cellphone users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadane, Joseph B.

2012-10-01

Probability sampling is a standard statistical technique. This article introduces the basic ideas of probability sampling, and shows in detail how probability sampling was used in a particular legal case.

Evaluating autonomous acoustic surveying techniques for rails in tidal marshes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stiffler, Lydia L.; Anderson, James T.; Katzner, Todd

2018-01-01

There is a growing interest toward the use of autonomous recording units (ARUs) for acoustic surveying of secretive marsh bird populations. However, there is little information on how ARUs compare to human surveyors or how best to use ARU data that can be collected continuously throughout the day. We used ARUs to conduct 2 acoustic surveys for king (Rallus elegans) and clapper rails (R. crepitans) within a tidal marsh complex along the Pamunkey River, Virginia, USA, during May–July 2015. To determine the effectiveness of an ARU in replacing human personnel, we compared results of callback point‐count surveys with concurrent acoustic recordings and calculated estimates of detection probability for both rail species combined. The success of ARUs at detecting rails that human observers recorded decreased with distance (P ≤ 0.001), such that at <25 m, 90.3% of human‐recorded rails also were detected by the ARU, but at >75 m, only 34.0% of human‐detected rails were detected by the ARU. To determine a subsampling scheme for continuous ARU data that allows for effective surveying of presence and call rates of rails, we used ARUs to conduct 15 continuous 48‐hr passive surveys, generating 720 hr of recordings. We established 5 subsampling periods of 5, 10, 15, 30, and 45 min to evaluate ARU‐based presence and vocalization detections of rails compared with each of the full 60‐min sampling of ARU‐based detection of rails. All subsampling periods resulted in different (P ≤ 0.001) detection rates and unstandardized vocalization rates compared with the hourly sampling period. However, standardized vocalization counts from the 30‐min subsampling period were not different from vocalization counts of the full hourly sampling period. When surveying rail species in estuarine environments, species‐, habitat‐, and ARU‐specific limitations to ARU sampling should be considered when making inferences about abundances and distributions from ARU data. 

Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2017-01-01

Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. We recommend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate. PMID:28075632

Longitudinal Emergency Medical Technician Attributes and Demographic Study (LEADS) Design and Methodology.

PubMed

Levine, Roger

2016-12-01

The objective of this study is to describe the Longitudinal Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) Attributes and Demographic Study (LEADS) design, instrument development, pilot testing, sampling procedures, and data collection methodology. Response rates are provided, along with results of follow-up surveys of non-responders (NRs) and a special survey of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) professionals who were not nationally certified. Annual surveys from 1999 to 2008 were mailed out to a random, stratified sample of nationally registered EMT-Basics and Paramedics. Survey weights were developed to reflect each respondent's probability of selection. A special survey of NRs was mailed out to individuals who did not respond to the annual survey to estimate the probable extent and direction of response bias. Individuals who indicated they were no longer in the profession were mailed a special exit survey to determine their reasons for leaving EMS. Given the large number of comparisons between NR and regular (annual) survey respondents, it is not surprising that some statistically significant differences were found. In general, there were few differences. However, NRs tended to report higher annual EMS incomes, were younger, healthier, more physically fit, and were more likely to report that they were not practicing EMS. Comparisons of the nationally certified EMS professionals with EMS professionals who were not nationally certified indicated that nationally certified EMS providers were younger, had less EMS experiences, earned less, were more likely to be female and work for private EMS services, and less likely to work for fire-based services. These differences may reflect state and local policy and practice, since many states and local agencies do not require maintenance of national certification as a requirement to practice. When these differences were controlled for statistically, there were few systematic differences between non-nationally certified and nationally certified EMS professionals. The LEADS study is the only national, randomized, and longitudinal data source for studying EMS professionals in the United States. Although not without flaws, this study remains an excellent source of information about EMS provider demographics, attributes, attitudes, workplace issues and concerns, and how the profession has changed from 1999 to 2008. Levine R . Longitudinal Emergency Medical Technician Attributes and Demographic Study (LEADS) design and methodology. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(Suppl. 1):s7-s17.

The Economics of Cognitive Impairment: Volunteering and Cognitive Function in the HILDA Survey.

PubMed

Hosking, Diane E; Anstey, Kaarin J

2016-01-01

The economic impact of older-age cognitive impairment has been estimated primarily by the direct and indirect costs associated with dementia care. Other potential costs associated with milder cognitive impairment in the community have received little attention. To quantify the cost of nonclinical cognitive impairment in a large population-based sample in order to more fully inform cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions to maintain cognitive health. Volunteering by seniors has economic value but those with lower cognitive function may contribute fewer hours. Relations between hours volunteering and cognitive impairment were assessed using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey data. These findings were extrapolated to the Australian population to estimate one potential cost attributable to nonclinical cognitive impairment. In those aged ≥60 years in HILDA (n = 3,127), conservatively defined cognitive impairment was present in 3.8% of the sample. Impairment was defined by performance ≥1 standard deviation below the age- and education-adjusted mean on both the Symbol Digit Modalities Test and Backwards Digit Span test. In fully adjusted binomial regression models, impairment was associated with the probability of undertaking 1 h 9 min less volunteering a week compared to being nonimpaired (β = -1.15, 95% confidence interval -1.82 to -0.47, p = 0.001). In the population, 3.8% impairment equated to probable loss of AUD 302,307,969 per annum estimated by hours of volunteering valued by replacement cost. Nonclinical cognitive impairment in older age impacts upon on the nonmonetary economy via probable loss of volunteering contribution. Valuing loss of contribution provides additional information for cost-effectiveness evaluations of research and action directed toward maintaining older-age cognitive functioning. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

A framework for inference about carnivore density from unstructured spatial sampling of scat using detector dogs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Craig M.; Royle, J. Andrew; Garner, James D.

2012-01-01

Wildlife management often hinges upon an accurate assessment of population density. Although undeniably useful, many of the traditional approaches to density estimation such as visual counts, livetrapping, or mark–recapture suffer from a suite of methodological and analytical weaknesses. Rare, secretive, or highly mobile species exacerbate these problems through the reality of small sample sizes and movement on and off study sites. In response to these difficulties, there is growing interest in the use of non-invasive survey techniques, which provide the opportunity to collect larger samples with minimal increases in effort, as well as the application of analytical frameworks that are not reliant on large sample size arguments. One promising survey technique, the use of scat detecting dogs, offers a greatly enhanced probability of detection while at the same time generating new difficulties with respect to non-standard survey routes, variable search intensity, and the lack of a fixed survey point for characterizing non-detection. In order to account for these issues, we modified an existing spatially explicit, capture–recapture model for camera trap data to account for variable search intensity and the lack of fixed, georeferenced trap locations. We applied this modified model to a fisher (Martes pennanti) dataset from the Sierra National Forest, California, and compared the results (12.3 fishers/100 km2) to more traditional density estimates. We then evaluated model performance using simulations at 3 levels of population density. Simulation results indicated that estimates based on the posterior mode were relatively unbiased. We believe that this approach provides a flexible analytical framework for reconciling the inconsistencies between detector dog survey data and density estimation procedures.

"A Richness Study of 14 Distant X-Ray Clusters from the 160 Square Degree Survey"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Christine; West, Donald (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We have measured the surface density of galaxies toward 14 X-ray-selected cluster candidates at redshifts z(sub i) 0.46, and we show that they are associated with rich galaxy concentrations. These clusters, having X-ray luminosities of Lx(0.5-2 keV) approx. (0.5 - 2.6) x 10(exp 44) ergs/ sec are among the most distant and luminous in our 160 deg(exp 2) ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter cluster survey. We find that the clusters range between Abell richness classes 0 and 2 and have a most probable richness class of 1. We compare the richness distribution of our distant clusters to those for three samples of nearby clusters with similar X-ray luminosities. We find that the nearby and distant samples have similar richness distributions, which shows that clusters have apparently not evolved substantially in richness since redshift z=0.5. There is, however, a marginal tendency for the distant clusters to be slightly poorer than nearby clusters, although deeper multicolor data for a large sample would be required to confirm this trend. We compare the distribution of distant X-ray clusters in the L(sub X)-richness plane to the distribution of optically selected clusters from the Palomar Distant Cluster Survey. The optically selected clusters appear overly rich for their X-ray luminosities, when compared to X-ray-selected clusters. Apparently, X-ray and optical surveys do not necessarily sample identical mass concentrations at large redshifts. This may indicate the existence of a population of optically rich clusters with anomalously low X-ray emission, More likely, however, it reflects the tendency for optical surveys to select unvirialized mass concentrations, as might be expected when peering along large-scale filaments.

Pairing field methods to improve inference in wildlife surveys while accommodating detection covariance.

PubMed

Clare, John; McKinney, Shawn T; DePue, John E; Loftin, Cynthia S

2017-10-01

It is common to use multiple field sampling methods when implementing wildlife surveys to compare method efficacy or cost efficiency, integrate distinct pieces of information provided by separate methods, or evaluate method-specific biases and misclassification error. Existing models that combine information from multiple field methods or sampling devices permit rigorous comparison of method-specific detection parameters, enable estimation of additional parameters such as false-positive detection probability, and improve occurrence or abundance estimates, but with the assumption that the separate sampling methods produce detections independently of one another. This assumption is tenuous if methods are paired or deployed in close proximity simultaneously, a common practice that reduces the additional effort required to implement multiple methods and reduces the risk that differences between method-specific detection parameters are confounded by other environmental factors. We develop occupancy and spatial capture-recapture models that permit covariance between the detections produced by different methods, use simulation to compare estimator performance of the new models to models assuming independence, and provide an empirical application based on American marten (Martes americana) surveys using paired remote cameras, hair catches, and snow tracking. Simulation results indicate existing models that assume that methods independently detect organisms produce biased parameter estimates and substantially understate estimate uncertainty when this assumption is violated, while our reformulated models are robust to either methodological independence or covariance. Empirical results suggested that remote cameras and snow tracking had comparable probability of detecting present martens, but that snow tracking also produced false-positive marten detections that could potentially substantially bias distribution estimates if not corrected for. Remote cameras detected marten individuals more readily than passive hair catches. Inability to photographically distinguish individual sex did not appear to induce negative bias in camera density estimates; instead, hair catches appeared to produce detection competition between individuals that may have been a source of negative bias. Our model reformulations broaden the range of circumstances in which analyses incorporating multiple sources of information can be robustly used, and our empirical results demonstrate that using multiple field-methods can enhance inferences regarding ecological parameters of interest and improve understanding of how reliably survey methods sample these parameters. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Cambodian Refugees.

PubMed

Marshall, Grant N; Schell, Terry L; Wong, Eunice C; Berthold, S Megan; Hambarsoomian, Katrin; Elliott, Marc N; Bardenheier, Barbara H; Gregg, Edward W

2016-02-01

To determine rates of diabetes, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia in Cambodian refugees, and to assess the proportion whose conditions are satisfactorily managed in comparison to the general population. Self-report and laboratory/physical health assessment data obtained from a household probability sample of U.S.-residing Cambodian refugees (N = 331) in 2010-2011 were compared to a probability sample of the adult U.S. population (N = 6,360) from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia in Cambodian refugees greatly exceeded rates found in the age- and gender-adjusted U.S. Cambodian refugees with diagnosed hypertension or hyperlipidemia were less likely than their counterparts in the general U.S. population to have blood pressure and total cholesterol within recommended levels. Increased attention should be paid to prevention and management of diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk factors in the Cambodian refugee community. Research is needed to determine whether this pattern extends to other refugee groups.

Predictors of posttraumatic stress-related impairment in victims of terrorism and ongoing conflict in Israel.

PubMed

Chipman, Katie J; Palmieri, Patrick A; Canetti, Daphna; Johnson, Robert J; Hobfoll, Stevan E

2011-05-01

The present study aimed to investigate the prevalence of self-reported impairment (Criterion F) as part of a probable DSM-IV diagnosis of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) within a sample of 1001 Israeli Jews subjected to direct and indirect exposure to rocket attacks. Further, the present study aimed to investigate predictors of endorsing posttraumatic stress (PTS)-related impairment, with specific attention to the influence of resources and resource loss. Data were collected via phone surveys. Twenty-nine percent of the sample reported impairment; however, only 19% of those reporting impairment met criteria for probable PTSD. Logistic regression results indicated that psychosocial resource losses, experiencing personal injury or injury to a family member or close friend, experiencing other major life stressors in the past year, having poorer health, having significant sleep difficulty, and having traditional (moderate) religious practices, significantly predicted PTS-related impairment. Results suggest that addressing impairment only within the context of full PTSD misses many individuals experiencing significant PTS-related impairment.

Epidemiology of undiagnosed trichomoniasis in a probability sample of urban young adults.

PubMed

Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Hobbs, Marcia; Miller, William C; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony M; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Villarroel, Maria A; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Chromy, James R; Erbelding, Emily

2014-01-01

T. vaginalis infection (trichomoniasis) is the most common curable sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the U.S. It is associated with increased HIV risk and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Trichomoniasis surveillance data do not exist for either national or local populations. The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP) collected survey data and specimens which were tested using nucleic acid amplification tests to monitor trichomoniasis and other STIs in 2006-09 among a probability sample of young adults (N = 2,936) in Baltimore, Maryland--an urban area with high rates of reported STIs. The estimated prevalence of trichomoniasis was 7.5% (95% CI 6.3, 9.1) in the overall population and 16.1% (95% CI 13.0, 19.8) among Black women. The overwhelming majority of infected men (98.5%) and women (73.3%) were asymptomatic. Infections were more common in both women (OR = 3.6, 95% CI 1.6, 8.2) and men (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.8, 44.3) with concurrent chlamydial infection. Trichomoniasis did not vary significantly by age for either men or women. Women with two or more partners in the past year and women with a history of personal or partner incarceration were more likely to have an infection. Overall, these results suggest that routine T vaginalis screening in populations at elevated risk of infection should be considered.

Epidemiology of Undiagnosed Trichomoniasis in a Probability Sample of Urban Young Adults

PubMed Central

Rogers, Susan M.; Turner, Charles F.; Hobbs, Marcia; Miller, William C.; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony M.; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Villarroel, Maria A.; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana; Chromy, James R.; Erbelding, Emily

2014-01-01

T. vaginalis infection (trichomoniasis) is the most common curable sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the U.S. It is associated with increased HIV risk and adverse pregnancy outcomes. Trichomoniasis surveillance data do not exist for either national or local populations. The Monitoring STIs Survey Program (MSSP) collected survey data and specimens which were tested using nucleic acid amplification tests to monitor trichomoniasis and other STIs in 2006–09 among a probability sample of young adults (N = 2,936) in Baltimore, Maryland — an urban area with high rates of reported STIs. The estimated prevalence of trichomoniasis was 7.5% (95% CI 6.3, 9.1) in the overall population and 16.1% (95% CI 13.0, 19.8) among Black women. The overwhelming majority of infected men (98.5%) and women (73.3%) were asymptomatic. Infections were more common in both women (OR = 3.6, 95% CI 1.6, 8.2) and men (OR = 9.0, 95% CI 1.8, 44.3) with concurrent chlamydial infection. Trichomoniasis did not vary significantly by age for either men or women. Women with two or more partners in the past year and women with a history of personal or partner incarceration were more likely to have an infection. Overall, these results suggest that routine T vaginalis screening in populations at elevated risk of infection should be considered. PMID:24626058

A photometric search for transiting planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baliber, Nairn Reese

In the decade since the discovery of the first planet orbiting a main-sequence star other than the Sun, more than 160 planets have been detected in orbit around other stars, most of them discovered by measuring the velocity of the reflexive motion of their parent stars caused by the gravitational pull of the planets. These discoveries produced a population of planets much different to the ones in our Solar System and created interest in other methods to detect these planets. One such method is searching for transits, the slight photometric dimming of stars caused by a close-orbiting, Jupiter-sized planet passing between a star and our line of sight once per orbit. We report results from TeMPEST, the Texas, McDonald Photometric Extrasolar Search for Transits, a transit survey conducted with the McDonald Observatory 0.76 m Prime Focus Corrector (PFC). We monitored five fields of stars in the plane of the Milky Way over the course of two and a half years. We created a photometry pipeline to perform high-precision differential photometry on all of the images, and used a software detection algorithm to detect transit signals in the light curves. Although no transits were found, we calculated our detection probability by determining the fraction of the stars monitored by TeMPEST which were suitable to show transits, measuring the probability of detecting transit signals based on the temporal coverage of our fields, and measuring our detection efficiency by inserting false transits into TeMPEST data to see what fraction could be recovered by our automatic detection software. We conclude that in our entire data set, we generated an effective sample of 2660 stars, a sample in which if any star is showing a transit, it would have been detected. We found no convincing transits in our data, but current statistics from radial velocity surveys indicate that only one in about 1300 of these stars should be showing transits. These numbers are consistent with the lack of transits produced by TeMPEST and the small number of transits generated by other surveys. We therefore discuss methods by which a transit survey's effective sample may be increased to make such surveys productive in a reasonable amount of time.

Estimation of tiger densities in the tropical dry forests of Panna, Central India, using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.Ullas; Chundawat, Raghunandan S.; Nichols, James D.; Kumar, N. Samba

2004-01-01

Tropical dry-deciduous forests comprise more than 45% of the tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat in India. However, in the absence of rigorously derived estimates of ecological densities of tigers in dry forests, critical baseline data for managing tiger populations are lacking. In this study tiger densities were estimated using photographic capture–recapture sampling in the dry forests of Panna Tiger Reserve in Central India. Over a 45-day survey period, 60 camera trap sites were sampled in a well-protected part of the 542-km2 reserve during 2002. A total sampling effort of 914 camera-trap-days yielded photo-captures of 11 individual tigers over 15 sampling occasions that effectively covered a 418-km2 area. The closed capture–recapture model Mh, which incorporates individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, fitted these photographic capture history data well. The estimated capture probability/sample, p̂= 0.04, resulted in an estimated tiger population size and standard error (N̂(SÊN̂)) of 29 (9.65), and a density (D̂(SÊD̂)) of 6.94 (3.23) tigers/100 km2. The estimated tiger density matched predictions based on prey abundance. Our results suggest that, if managed appropriately, the available dry forest habitat in India has the potential to support a population size of about 9000 wild tigers.

Correlation between pubic hair grooming and STIs: results from a nationally representative probability sample.

PubMed

Osterberg, E Charles; Gaither, Thomas W; Awad, Mohannad A; Truesdale, Matthew D; Allen, Isabel; Sutcliffe, Siobhan; Breyer, Benjamin N

2017-05-01

STIs are the most common infections among adults. Concurrently, pubic hair grooming is prevalent. Small-scale studies have demonstrated a relationship between pubic hair grooming and STIs. We aim to examine this relationship in a large sample of men and women. We conducted a probability survey of US residents aged 18-65 years. The survey ascertained self-reported pubic hair grooming practices, sexual behaviours and STI history. We defined extreme grooming as removal of all pubic hair more than 11 times per year and high-frequency grooming as daily/weekly trimming. Cutaneous STIs included herpes, human papillomavirus, syphilis and molluscum. Secretory STIs included gonorrhoea, chlamydia and HIV. We analysed lice separately. Of 7580 respondents who completed the survey, 74% reported grooming their pubic hair, 66% of men and 84% of women. After adjusting for age and lifetime sexual partners, ever having groomed was positively associated with a history of self-reported STIs (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.4 to 2.2), including cutaneous STIs (OR 2.6; CI 1.8 to 3.7), secretory STIs (OR 1.7; CI 1.3 to 2.2) and lice (OR 1.9; CI 1.3 to 2.9). These positive associations were stronger for extreme groomers (OR 4.4; CI 2.9 to 6.8) and high-frequency groomers (OR 3.5; CI 2.3 to 5.4) with cutaneous STIs, and for non-extreme groomers (OR 2.0; CI 1.3 to 3.0) and low-frequency groomers (OR 2.0; CI 1.3 to 3.1) with lice. Among a representative sample of US residents, pubic hair grooming was positively related to self-reported STI history. Further research is warranted to gain insight into STI risk-reduction strategies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Sexual and relationship characteristics among an internet-based sample of U.S. men with and without erectile dysfunction.

PubMed

Cameron, Ann; Rosen, Raymond C; Swindle, Ralph W

2005-01-01

Sexual and relationship characteristics of men in the general population, particularly those with erectile dysfunction (ED), are not well established. This Internet-based survey (N = 700) examined demographic, sexual, and relationship characteristics of two groups of men aged 40-70: those with no ED (n = 589) and those with probable ED (n = 111). Compared to men without ED, men in the ED sample were significantly older, had more medical conditions, and had significantly worse sexual, psychological, and relationship function. Sexual function and relationship and psychological characteristics were significant predictors of overall sexual satisfaction and relationship satisfaction.

Landscape- and local-scale habitat influences on occupancy and detection probability of stream-dwelling crayfish: Implications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoulick, Daniel D.; DiStefano, Robert J.; Imhoff, Emily M.; Nolen, Matthew S.; Wagner, Brian K.

2017-01-01

Crayfish are ecologically important in freshwater systems worldwide and are imperiled in North America and globally. We sought to examine landscape- to local-scale environmental variables related to occupancy and detection probability of a suite of stream-dwelling crayfish species. We used a quantitative kickseine method to sample crayfish presence at 102 perennial stream sites with eight surveys per site. We modeled occupancy (psi) and detection probability (P) and local- and landscape-scale environmental covariates. We developed a set of a priori candidate models for each species and ranked models using (Q)AICc. Detection probabilities and occupancy estimates differed among crayfish species with Orconectes eupunctus, O. marchandi, and Cambarus hubbsi being relatively rare (psi < 0.20) with moderate (0.46–0.60) to high (0.81) detection probability and O. punctimanus and O. ozarkae being relatively common (psi > 0.60) with high detection probability (0.81). Detection probability was often related to local habitat variables current velocity, depth, or substrate size. Important environmental variables for crayfish occupancy were species dependent but were mainly landscape variables such as stream order, geology, slope, topography, and land use. Landscape variables strongly influenced crayfish occupancy and should be considered in future studies and conservation plans.

Properties of Starless Clumps through Protoclusters from the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, Brian E.; Shirley, Yancy

2014-07-01

High mass stars play a key role in the physical and chemical evolution of the interstellar medium, yet the evolution of physical properties for high-mass star-forming regions remains unclear. We sort a sample of ~4668 molecular cloud clumps from the Bolocam Galactic Plane Survey (BGPS) into different evolutionary stages by combining the BGPS 1.1 mm continuum and observational diagnostics of star-formation activity from a variety of Galactic plane surveys: 70 um compact sources, mid-IR color-selected YSOs, H2O and CH3OH masers, EGOs, and UCHII regions. We apply Monte Carlo techniques to distance probability distribution functions (DPDFs) in order to marginalize over the kinematic distance ambiguity and calculate distributions for derived quantities of clumps in different evolutionary stages. We also present a combined NH3 and H2O maser catalog for ~1590 clumps from the literature and our own GBT 100m observations. We identify a sub-sample of 440 dense clumps with no star-formation indicators, representing the largest and most robust sample of pre-protocluster candidates from a blind survey to date. Distributions of I(HCO+), I(N2H+), dv(HCO+), dv(N2H+), mass surface density, and kinetic temperature show strong progressions when separated by evolutionary stage. No progressions are found in size or dust mass; however, weak progressions are observed in area > 2 pc^2 and dust mass > 3 10^3 Msun. An observed breakdown occurs in the size-linewidth relationship and we find no improvement when sampling by evolutionary stage.

Finding strong lenses in CFHTLS using convolutional neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, C.; Glazebrook, K.; Collett, T.; More, A.; McCarthy, C.

2017-10-01

We train and apply convolutional neural networks, a machine learning technique developed to learn from and classify image data, to Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey (CFHTLS) imaging for the identification of potential strong lensing systems. An ensemble of four convolutional neural networks was trained on images of simulated galaxy-galaxy lenses. The training sets consisted of a total of 62 406 simulated lenses and 64 673 non-lens negative examples generated with two different methodologies. An ensemble of trained networks was applied to all of the 171 deg2 of the CFHTLS wide field image data, identifying 18 861 candidates including 63 known and 139 other potential lens candidates. A second search of 1.4 million early-type galaxies selected from the survey catalogue as potential deflectors, identified 2465 candidates including 117 previously known lens candidates, 29 confirmed lenses/high-quality lens candidates, 266 novel probable or potential lenses and 2097 candidates we classify as false positives. For the catalogue-based search we estimate a completeness of 21-28 per cent with respect to detectable lenses and a purity of 15 per cent, with a false-positive rate of 1 in 671 images tested. We predict a human astronomer reviewing candidates produced by the system would identify 20 probable lenses and 100 possible lenses per hour in a sample selected by the robot. Convolutional neural networks are therefore a promising tool for use in the search for lenses in current and forthcoming surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

Effects of extreme floods on macroinvertebrate assemblages in tributaries to the Mohawk River, New York, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calderon, Mirian R.; Baldigo, Barry P.; Smith, Alexander J.; Endreny, Theodore A.

2017-01-01

Climate change is forecast to bring more frequent and intense precipitation to New York which has motivated research into the effects of floods on stream ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate assemblages were sampled at 13 sites in the Mohawk River basin during August 2011, and again in October 2011, following historic floods caused by remnants of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee. The annual exceedance probabilities of floods at regional flow-monitoring sites ranged from 0.5 to 0.001. Data from the first 2 surveys, and from additional surveys done during July and October 2014, were assessed to characterize the severity of flood impacts, effect of seasonality, and recovery. Indices of total taxa richness; Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) richness; Hilsenhoff's biotic index; per cent model affinity; and nutrient biotic index-phosphorus were combined to calculate New York State Biological Assessment Profile scores. Analysis of variance tests were used to determine if the Biological Assessment Profile, its component metrics, relative abundance, and diversity differed significantly (p ≤ .05) among the four surveys. Only total taxa richness and Shannon–Wiener diversity increased significantly, and abundance decreased significantly, following the floods. No metrics differed significantly between the July and August 2014 surveys which indicates that the differences denoted between the August and October 2011 surveys were caused by the floods. Changes in taxa richness, EPT richness, and diversity were significantly correlated with flood annual exceedance probabilities. This study increased our understanding of the resistance and resilience of benthic macroinvertebrate communities by showing that their assemblages were relatively impervious to extreme floods across the region.

Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael D.

2011-01-01

Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement. In contrast the subjective probability of a stock market gain varies greatly across individuals even though no one has private information and the outcome is the same for everyone. An explanation is that there is considerable variation in accessing and processing information. Further, the subjective probability of a stock market gain is considerably lower than historical averages, providing an explanation for the relatively low frequency of stock holding. An important research objective will be to understand how individuals form their subjective probabilities. PMID:21643535

Density estimation in wildlife surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Droege, Sam; Geissler, Paul E.; Peterjohn, Bruce G.; Ralph, C. John

2004-01-01

Several authors have recently discussed the problems with using index methods to estimate trends in population size. Some have expressed the view that index methods should virtually never be used. Others have responded by defending index methods and questioning whether better alternatives exist. We suggest that index methods are often a cost-effective component of valid wildlife monitoring but that double-sampling or another procedure that corrects for bias or establishes bounds on bias is essential. The common assertion that index methods require constant detection rates for trend estimation is mathematically incorrect; the requirement is no long-term trend in detection "ratios" (index result/parameter of interest), a requirement that is probably approximately met by many well-designed index surveys. We urge that more attention be given to defining bird density rigorously and in ways useful to managers. Once this is done, 4 sources of bias in density estimates may be distinguished: coverage, closure, surplus birds, and detection rates. Distance, double-observer, and removal methods do not reduce bias due to coverage, closure, or surplus birds. These methods may yield unbiased estimates of the number of birds present at the time of the survey, but only if their required assumptions are met, which we doubt occurs very often in practice. Double-sampling, in contrast, produces unbiased density estimates if the plots are randomly selected and estimates on the intensive surveys are unbiased. More work is needed, however, to determine the feasibility of double-sampling in different populations and habitats. We believe the tension that has developed over appropriate survey methods can best be resolved through increased appreciation of the mathematical aspects of indices, especially the effects of bias, and through studies in which candidate methods are evaluated against known numbers determined through intensive surveys.

Impact of probability estimation on frequency of urine culture requests in ambulatory settings.

PubMed

Gul, Naheed; Quadri, Mujtaba

2012-07-01

To determine the perceptions of the medical community about urine culture in diagnosing urinary tract infections. The cross-sectional survey based of consecutive sampling was conducted at Shifa International Hospital, Islamabad, on 200 doctors, including medical students of the Shifa College of Medicine, from April to October 2010. A questionnaire with three common clinical scenarios of low, intermediate and high pre-test probability for urinary tract infection was used to assess the behaviour of the respondents to make a decision for urine culture test. The differences between the reference estimates and the respondents' estimates of pre- and post-test probability were assessed. The association of estimated probabilities with the number of tests ordered was also evaluated. The respondents were also asked about the cost effectiveness and safety of urine culture and sensitivity. Data was analysed using SPSS version 15. In low pre-test probability settings, the disease probability was over-estimated, suggesting the participants' inability to rule out the disease. The post-test probabilities were, however, under-estimated by the doctors as compared to the students. In intermediate and high pre-test probability settings, both over- and underestimation of probabilities were noticed. Doctors were more likely to consider ordering the test as the disease probability increased. Most of the respondents were of the opinion that urine culture was a cost-effective test and there was no associated potential harm. The wide variation in the clinical use of urine culture necessitates the formulation of appropriate guidelines for the diagnostic use of urine culture, and application of Bayesian probabilistic thinking to real clinical situations.

Baseline assessment of prevalence and geographical distribution of HPV types in Chile using self-collected vaginal samples

PubMed Central

Ferreccio, Catterina; Corvalán, Alejandro; Margozzini, Paula; Viviani, Paola; González, Claudia; Aguilera, Ximena; Gravitt, Patti E

2008-01-01

Background Chile has broad variations in weather, economics and population from the far desert north (Region 1) to the cold, icy south (Region 12). A home-based self-collected vaginal sampling was nested in the 2003 Chilean population-based health survey in order to explore the possibility of a type-specific geographical variation for human papillomavirus Methods The population was a national probability sample of people 17 years of age and over. Consenting women provided self-collected cervicovaginal swabs in universal collection media (UCM). DNA was extracted and typed to 37 HPV genotypes using PGMY consensus PCR and line blot assay. Weighted prevalence rates and adjusted OR were calculated. Results Of the 1,883 women participating in the health survey, 1,219 (64.7%) provided a cervicovaginal sample and in 1,110 (56.2% of participants and 66.5% of those eligible) the samples were adequate for analysis. Refusal rate was 16.9%. HPV prevalence was 29.2% (15.1% high-risk HPV and 14.1% low-risk HPV). Predominant high-risk types were HPV 16, 52, 51, 56 and 58. Predominant low-risk HPVs were HPV 84, CP6108, 62, 53 and 61. High-risk and low-risk HPV rates were inversely correlated between the regions. High-risk HPV prevalence was highest among the youngest women, whereas low-risk HPV increased slightly with age. Conclusion Self-obtained vaginal sampling is adequate for monitoring HPV in the community, for identifying high-risk areas, and for surveying the long term impact of interventions. PMID:18304362

Estimation of stream salamander (Plethodontidae, Desmognathinae and Plethodontinae) populations in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jung, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Sauer, J.R.; Addison, C.; Rau, R.D.; Shirk, J.L.; Whissel, J.C.

2005-01-01

Stream salamanders in the family Plethodontidae constitute a large biomass in and near headwater streams in the eastern United States and are promising indicators of stream ecosystem health. Many studies of stream salamanders have relied on population indices based on counts rather than population estimates based on techniques such as capture-recapture and removal. Application of estimation procedures allows the calculation of detection probabilities (the proportion of total animals present that are detected during a survey) and their associated sampling error, and may be essential for determining salamander population sizes and trends. In 1999, we conducted capture-recapture and removal population estimation methods for Desmognathus salamanders at six streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Removal sampling appeared more efficient and detection probabilities from removal data were higher than those from capture-recapture. During 2001-2004, we used removal estimation at eight streams in the park to assess the usefulness of this technique for long-term monitoring of stream salamanders. Removal detection probabilities ranged from 0.39 to 0.96 for Desmognathus, 0.27 to 0.89 for Eurycea and 0.27 to 0.75 for northern spring (Gyrinophilus porphyriticus) and northern red (Pseudotriton ruber) salamanders across stream transects. Detection probabilities did not differ across years for Desmognathus and Eurycea, but did differ among streams for Desmognathus. Population estimates of Desmognathus decreased between 2001-2002 and 2003-2004 which may be related to changes in stream flow conditions. Removal-based procedures may be a feasible approach for population estimation of salamanders, but field methods should be designed to meet the assumptions of the sampling procedures. New approaches to estimating stream salamander populations are discussed.

Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model

PubMed Central

Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul SF

2015-01-01

Background Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. Objective The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. Methods There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric “Screening Efficiency” that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Results Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30%. Conclusions Individuals in China with high suicide probability are recognizable by profile and text-based information from microblogs. Although there is still much space to improve the performance of classification models in the future, this study may shed light on preliminary screening of risky individuals via machine learning algorithms, which can work side-by-side with expert scrutiny to increase efficiency in large-scale-surveillance of suicide probability from online social media. PMID:26543921

Identifying Chinese Microblog Users With High Suicide Probability Using Internet-Based Profile and Linguistic Features: Classification Model.

PubMed

Guan, Li; Hao, Bibo; Cheng, Qijin; Yip, Paul Sf; Zhu, Tingshao

2015-01-01

Traditional offline assessment of suicide probability is time consuming and difficult in convincing at-risk individuals to participate. Identifying individuals with high suicide probability through online social media has an advantage in its efficiency and potential to reach out to hidden individuals, yet little research has been focused on this specific field. The objective of this study was to apply two classification models, Simple Logistic Regression (SLR) and Random Forest (RF), to examine the feasibility and effectiveness of identifying high suicide possibility microblog users in China through profile and linguistic features extracted from Internet-based data. There were nine hundred and nine Chinese microblog users that completed an Internet survey, and those scoring one SD above the mean of the total Suicide Probability Scale (SPS) score, as well as one SD above the mean in each of the four subscale scores in the participant sample were labeled as high-risk individuals, respectively. Profile and linguistic features were fed into two machine learning algorithms (SLR and RF) to train the model that aims to identify high-risk individuals in general suicide probability and in its four dimensions. Models were trained and then tested by 5-fold cross validation; in which both training set and test set were generated under the stratified random sampling rule from the whole sample. There were three classic performance metrics (Precision, Recall, F1 measure) and a specifically defined metric "Screening Efficiency" that were adopted to evaluate model effectiveness. Classification performance was generally matched between SLR and RF. Given the best performance of the classification models, we were able to retrieve over 70% of the labeled high-risk individuals in overall suicide probability as well as in the four dimensions. Screening Efficiency of most models varied from 1/4 to 1/2. Precision of the models was generally below 30%. Individuals in China with high suicide probability are recognizable by profile and text-based information from microblogs. Although there is still much space to improve the performance of classification models in the future, this study may shed light on preliminary screening of risky individuals via machine learning algorithms, which can work side-by-side with expert scrutiny to increase efficiency in large-scale-surveillance of suicide probability from online social media.

DSM-IV Alcohol Dependence and Marital Dissolution: Evidence From the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions

PubMed Central

Cranford, James A

2014-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations among alcohol use disorder (AUD), stressful life events, and marital dissolution in a probability sample of adults. Method: The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions is a prospective, longitudinal study of a probability sample of 43,083 adults 18 years of age and older living in the United States. The interval between Wave 1 (W1) and Wave 2 (W2) was approximately 3 years. Cross-sectional analyses included 32,359 adults ages 18 and older who were ever married at W1, and longitudinal analyses included 17,192 adults who were currently married at W1 and who completed relevant W2 measures. Participants completed inhome surveys conducted with computer-assisted personal interviewing. Results: Rates of lifetime marital dissolution were significantly higher among those with lifetime AUD (48.3%) than in those with no lifetime AUD (30.1%). The incidence of marital dissolution from W1 to W2 was 15.5% for those with a past-12-month AUD at W1, compared to 4.8% among those with no AUD. Proportional hazards regression analyses showed that past-12-month AUD, tobacco use disorder, other substance use disorder, stressful life events, older age at marriage, being married more than once, and being married to an alcoholic at W1 predicted greater hazards of marital dissolution at W2. These associations were not moderated by gender. Conclusions: AUD and stressful life events predict subsequent marital dissolution independently of other substance use disorders, mood and anxiety disorders, and personality disorders. Results were discussed within the framework of the Vulnerability–Stress–Adaptation model of marriage. PMID:24766764

Does Introducing Imprecision around Probabilities for Benefit and Harm Influence the Way People Value Treatments?

PubMed

Bansback, Nick; Harrison, Mark; Marra, Carlo

2016-05-01

Imprecision in estimates of benefits and harms around treatment choices is rarely described to patients. Variation in sampling error between treatment alternatives (e.g., treatments have similar average risks, but one treatment has a larger confidence interval) can result in patients failing to choose the option that is best for them. The aim of this study is to use a discrete choice experiment to describe how 2 methods for conveying imprecision in risk influence people's treatment decisions. We randomized a representative sample of the Canadian general population to 1 of 3 surveys that sought choices between hypothetical treatments for rheumatoid arthritis based on different levels of 7 attributes: route and frequency of administration, chance of benefit, serious and minor side effects and life expectancy, and imprecision in benefit and side-effect estimates. The surveys differed in the way imprecision was described: 1) no imprecision, 2) quantitative description based on a range with a visual graphic, and 3) qualitative description simply describing the confidence in the evidence. The analyzed data were from 2663 respondents. Results suggested that more people understood imprecision when it was described qualitatively (88%) versus quantitatively (68%). Respondents who appeared to understand imprecision descriptions placed high value on increased precision regarding the actual benefits and harms of treatment, equivalent to the value placed on the information about the probability of serious side effects. Both qualitative and quantitative methods led to small but significant increases in decision uncertainty for choosing any treatment. Limitations included some issues in defining understanding of imprecision and the use of an internet survey of panel members. These findings provide insight into how conveying imprecision information influences patient treatment choices. © The Author(s) 2015.

Methodology of a nationwide cross-sectional survey of prevalence and epidemiological patterns of hepatitis A, B and C infection in Brazil.

PubMed

Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes de Alencar; Pereira, Leila Maria Beltrão; Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Merchán-Hamann, Edgar; Stein, Airton Tetelbom; Figueiredo, Gerusa Maria; Braga, Maria Cynthia; Montarroyos, Ulisses Ramos; Brasil, Leila Melo; Turchi, Marília Dalva; Fonseca, José Carlos Ferraz da; Lima, Maria Luiza Carvalho de; Alencar, Luis Cláudio Arraes de; Costa, Marcelo; Coral, Gabriela; Moreira, Regina Celia; Cardoso, Maria Regina Alves

2010-09-01

A population-based survey to provide information on the prevalence of hepatitis viral infection and the pattern of risk factors was carried out in the urban population of all Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District, between 2005 and 2009. This paper describes the design and methodology of the study which involved a population aged 5 to 19 for hepatitis A and 10 to 69 for hepatitis B and C. Interviews and blood samples were obtained through household visits. The sample was selected using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling and was drawn with equal probability from each domain of study (region and age-group). Nationwide, 19,280 households and ~31,000 residents were selected. The study is large enough to detect prevalence of viral infection around 0.1% and risk factor assessments within each region. The methodology seems to be a viable way of differentiating between distinct epidemiological patterns of hepatitis A, B and C. These data will be of value for the evaluation of vaccination policies and for the design of control program strategies.

Inference about density and temporary emigration in unmarked populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chandler, Richard B.; Royle, J. Andrew; King, David I.

2011-01-01

Few species are distributed uniformly in space, and populations of mobile organisms are rarely closed with respect to movement, yet many models of density rely upon these assumptions. We present a hierarchical model allowing inference about the density of unmarked populations subject to temporary emigration and imperfect detection. The model can be fit to data collected using a variety of standard survey methods such as repeated point counts in which removal sampling, double-observer sampling, or distance sampling is used during each count. Simulation studies demonstrated that parameter estimators are unbiased when temporary emigration is either "completely random" or is determined by the size and location of home ranges relative to survey points. We also applied the model to repeated removal sampling data collected on Chestnut-sided Warblers (Dendroica pensylvancia) in the White Mountain National Forest, USA. The density estimate from our model, 1.09 birds/ha, was similar to an estimate of 1.11 birds/ha produced by an intensive spot-mapping effort. Our model is also applicable when processes other than temporary emigration affect the probability of being available for detection, such as in studies using cue counts. Functions to implement the model have been added to the R package unmarked.

THE CHANDRA COSMOS-LEGACY SURVEY: THE z > 3 SAMPLE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marchesi, S.; Civano, F.; Urry, C. M.

2016-08-20

We present the largest high-redshift (3 < z < 6.85) sample of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) on a contiguous field, using sources detected in the Chandra COSMOS-Legacy survey. The sample contains 174 sources, 87 with spectroscopic redshift and the other 87 with photometric redshift (z {sub phot}). In this work, we treat z {sub phot} as a probability-weighted sum of contributions, adding to our sample the contribution of sources with z {sub phot} < 3 but z {sub phot} probability distribution >0 at z > 3. We compute the number counts in the observed 0.5–2 keV band, finding amore » decline in the number of sources at z > 3 and constraining phenomenological models of the X-ray background. We compute the AGN space density at z > 3 in two different luminosity bins. At higher luminosities (log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1}), the space density declines exponentially, dropping by a factor of ∼20 from z ∼ 3 to z ∼ 6. The observed decline is ∼80% steeper at lower luminosities (43.55 erg s{sup −1} < logL(2–10 keV) < 44.1 erg s{sup −1}) from z ∼ 3 to z ∼ 4.5. We study the space density evolution dividing our sample into optically classified Type 1 and Type 2 AGNs. At log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1}, unobscured and obscured objects may have different evolution with redshift, with the obscured component being three times higher at z ∼ 5. Finally, we compare our space density with predictions of quasar activation merger models, whose calibration is based on optically luminous AGNs. These models significantly overpredict the number of expected AGNs at log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1} with respect to our data.« less

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gotelli, Nicholas J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Grossman, Gary D.

2010-01-01

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether and gasoline hydrocarbons in ground water and source water in the United States and in drinking water in 12 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States, 1993-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Michael J.; Zogorski, John S.; Squillace, Paul J.

2004-01-01

The occurrence and implications of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and gasoline hydrocarbons were examined in three surveys of water quality conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey?one national-scale survey of ground water, one national-scale survey of source water from ground water, and one regional-scale survey of drinking water from ground water. The overall detection frequency of MTBE in all three surveys was similar to the detection frequencies of some other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that have much longer production and use histories in the United States. The detection frequency of MTBE was higher in drinking water and lower in source water and ground water. However, when the data for ground water and source water were limited to the same geographic extent as drinking-water data, the detection frequencies of MTBE were comparable to the detection frequency of MTBE in drinking water. In all three surveys, the detection frequency of any gasoline hydrocarbon was less than the detection frequency of MTBE. No concentration of MTBE in source water exceeded the lower limit of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Drinking-Water Advisory of 20 ?g/L (micrograms per liter). One concentration of MTBE in ground water exceeded 20 ?g/L, and 0.9 percent of drinking-water samples exceeded 20 ?g/L. The overall detection frequency of MTBE relative to other widely used VOCs indicates that MTBE is an important concern with respect to ground-water management. The probability of detecting MTBE was strongly associated with population density, use of MTBE in gasoline, and recharge, and weakly associated with density of leaking underground storage tanks, soil permeability, and aquifer consolidation. Only concentrations of MTBE above 0.5 ?g/L were associated with dissolved oxygen. Ground water underlying areas with high population density, ground water underlying areas where MTBE is used as a gasoline oxygenate, and ground water underlying areas with high recharge has a greater probability of MTBE contamination. Ground water from public-supply wells and shallow ground water underlying urban land-use areas has a greater probability of MTBE contamination compared to ground water from domestic wells and ground water underlying rural land-use areas.

Inferences about landbird abundance from count data: recent advances and future directions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.; Thomas, L.; Conn, P.B.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

We summarize results of a November 2006 workshop dealing with recent research on the estimation of landbird abundance from count data. Our conceptual framework includes a decomposition of the probability of detecting a bird potentially exposed to sampling efforts into four separate probabilities. Primary inference methods are described and include distance sampling, multiple observers, time of detection, and repeated counts. The detection parameters estimated by these different approaches differ, leading to different interpretations of resulting estimates of density and abundance. Simultaneous use of combinations of these different inference approaches can not only lead to increased precision but also provides the ability to decompose components of the detection process. Recent efforts to test the efficacy of these different approaches using natural systems and a new bird radio test system provide sobering conclusions about the ability of observers to detect and localize birds in auditory surveys. Recent research is reported on efforts to deal with such potential sources of error as bird misclassification, measurement error, and density gradients. Methods for inference about spatial and temporal variation in avian abundance are outlined. Discussion topics include opinions about the need to estimate detection probability when drawing inference about avian abundance, methodological recommendations based on the current state of knowledge and suggestions for future research.

Health-risk behaviors in young adolescents in the child welfare system.

PubMed

Leslie, Laurel K; James, Sigrid; Monn, Amy; Kauten, Milena C; Zhang, Jinjin; Aarons, Gregory

2010-07-01

To examine rates and patterns of health-risk behavior (e.g., sexuality, depression/suicidality, substance use, delinquency) among a national probability sample of youth active to the child welfare/child protective services system. Recent federal legislation, P.L. 110-351, encourages child welfare systems, Medicaid, and pediatric experts to collaborate to ensure youth entering foster care receive comprehensive health examinations. Analysis of baseline caregiver, caseworker, and child interviews, and assessment data for a subsample (n = 993) of youth, aged 11-15 years, from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, a national probability sample of children and adolescents undergoing investigation for abuse or neglect. Almost half of the sample (46.3%) endorsed at least one health-risk behavior. On Poisson multivariate regression modeling, factors related to higher rates of health-risk behaviors included older age, female gender, abuse history, deviant peers, limited caregiver monitoring, and poor school engagement. Given the heightened vulnerability of this population, early screening for health-risk behaviors must be prioritized. Further research should explore specific subpopulations at risk for health-risk behaviors and possible interventions to change these youths' trajectories. Copyright (c) 2010 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trends in cigarette smoking: The Minnesota Heart Survey, 1980–1982 through 2000–2002

PubMed Central

Duval, Sue; Jacobs, David R.; Barber, Cheryl; Lando, Harry A.; Steffen, Lyn M.; Arnett, Donna K.; Luepker, Russell V.

2017-01-01

This paper reports population-based secular trends in smoking prevalence and tobacco exposure among smokers. The Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) assessed smoking in probability samples in the seven-county Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area. Five surveys were conducted in 1980–1982, 1985–1987, 1990–1992, 1995–1997, and 2000–2002 using similar sampling strategies and consistent protocols. Participants were metropolitan area residents of Minnesota, aged 25–74 years, with the addition of 75–84-year-olds in the last three surveys. In men, age-adjusted self-reported prevalence of current smoking steadily declined from 32.9% in 1980–1982, to 23.0% in 1995–1997, and to 20.6% in 2000–2002. In women, self-reported smoking was 31.8% in 1980–1982, 18.5% in 1995–1997, and 19.5% in the latest survey. Age-adjusted self-reported quantity of cigarettes consumed among smokers declined over the same period. Changes from 1995–1997 to 2000–2002 were not significant. Compared with Whites, Black participants had higher levels of smoking and later onset of the decline in smoking prevalence. A decline in smoking prevalence seems to have leveled off or reversed between the two most recent survey periods (1995–1997 through 2000–2002). Focus on smoking cessation should continue, especially in the subpopulation that smokes more than the majority. PMID:18569756

Assessing the impact of antidrug advertising on adolescent drug consumption: results from a behavioral economic model.

PubMed

Block, Lauren G; Morwitz, Vicki G; Putsis, William P; Sen, Subrata K

2002-08-01

This study examined whether adolescents' recall of antidrug advertising is associated with a decreased probability of using illicit drugs and, given drug use, a reduced volume of use. A behavioral economic model of influences on drug consumption was developed with survey data from a nationally representative sample of adolescents to determine the incremental impact of antidrug advertising. The findings provided evidence that recall of antidrug advertising was associated with a lower probability of marijuana and cocaine/crack use. Recall of such advertising was not associated with the decision of how much marijuana or cocaine/crack to use. Results suggest that individuals predisposed to try marijuana are also predisposed to try cocaine/crack. The present results provide support for the effectiveness of antidrug advertising programs.

A comparison of four sampling methods among men having sex with men in China: implications for HIV/STD surveillance and prevention

PubMed Central

Guo, Yan; Li, Xiaoming; Fang, Xiaoyi; Lin, Xiuyun; Song, Yan; Jiang, Shuling; Stanton, Bonita

2011-01-01

Sample representativeness remains one of the challenges in effective HIV/STD surveillance and prevention targeting MSM worldwide. Although convenience samples are widely used in studies of MSM, previous studies suggested that these samples might not be representative of the broader MSM population. This issue becomes even more critical in many developing countries where needed resources for conducting probability sampling are limited. We examined variations in HIV and Syphilis infections and sociodemographic and behavioral factors among 307 young migrant MSM recruited using four different convenience sampling methods (peer outreach, informal social network, Internet, and venue-based) in Beijing, China in 2009. The participants completed a self-administered survey and provided blood specimens for HIV/STD testing. Among the four MSM samples using different recruitment methods, rates of HIV infections were 5.1%, 5.8%, 7.8%, and 3.4%; rates of Syphilis infection were 21.8%, 36.2%, 11.8%, and 13.8%; rates of inconsistent condom use were 57%, 52%, 58%, and 38%. Significant differences were found in various sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, migration history, education, income, places of employment) and risk behaviors (e.g., age at first sex, number of sex partners, involvement in commercial sex, and substance use) among samples recruited by different sampling methods. The results confirmed the challenges of obtaining representative MSM samples and underscored the importance of using multiple sampling methods to reach MSM from diverse backgrounds and in different social segments and to improve the representativeness of the MSM samples when the use of probability sampling approach is not feasible. PMID:21711162

A comparison of four sampling methods among men having sex with men in China: implications for HIV/STD surveillance and prevention.

PubMed

Guo, Yan; Li, Xiaoming; Fang, Xiaoyi; Lin, Xiuyun; Song, Yan; Jiang, Shuling; Stanton, Bonita

2011-11-01

Sample representativeness remains one of the challenges in effective HIV/STD surveillance and prevention targeting men who have sex with men (MSM) worldwide. Although convenience samples are widely used in studies of MSM, previous studies suggested that these samples might not be representative of the broader MSM population. This issue becomes even more critical in many developing countries where needed resources for conducting probability sampling are limited. We examined variations in HIV and Syphilis infections and sociodemographic and behavioral factors among 307 young migrant MSM recruited using four different convenience sampling methods (peer outreach, informal social network, Internet, and venue-based) in Beijing, China in 2009. The participants completed a self-administered survey and provided blood specimens for HIV/STD testing. Among the four MSM samples using different recruitment methods, rates of HIV infections were 5.1%, 5.8%, 7.8%, and 3.4%; rates of Syphilis infection were 21.8%, 36.2%, 11.8%, and 13.8%; and rates of inconsistent condom use were 57%, 52%, 58%, and 38%. Significant differences were found in various sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., age, migration history, education, income, and places of employment) and risk behaviors (e.g., age at first sex, number of sex partners, involvement in commercial sex, and substance use) among samples recruited by different sampling methods. The results confirmed the challenges of obtaining representative MSM samples and underscored the importance of using multiple sampling methods to reach MSM from diverse backgrounds and in different social segments and to improve the representativeness of the MSM samples when the use of probability sampling approach is not feasible.

PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

Musculoskeletal impairment survey in Rwanda: Design of survey tool, survey methodology, and results of the pilot study (a cross sectional survey)

PubMed Central

Atijosan, Oluwarantimi; Kuper, Hannah; Rischewski, Dorothea; Simms, Victoria; Lavy, Christopher

2007-01-01

Background Musculoskeletal impairment (MSI) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, especially in developing countries. Prevalence studies for MSI in the developing world have used varying methodologies and are seldom directly comparable. This study aimed to develop a new tool to screen for and diagnose MSI and to pilot test the methodology for a national survey in Rwanda. Methods A 7 question screening tool to identify cases of MSI was developed through literature review and discussions with healthcare professionals. To validate the tool, trained rehabilitation technicians screened 93 previously identified gold standard 'cases' and 86 'non cases'. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated. A standardised examination protocol was developed to determine the aetiology and diagnosis of MSI for those who fail the screening test. For the national survey in Rwanda, multistage cluster random sampling, with probability proportional to size procedures will be used for selection of a cross-sectional, nationally representative sample of the population. Households to be surveyed will be chosen through compact segment sampling and all individuals within chosen households will be screened. A pilot survey of 680 individuals was conducted using the protocol. Results: The screening tool demonstrated 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity for MSI, and a positive predictive value of 98%. During the pilot study 468 out of 680 eligible subjects (69%) were screened. 45 diagnoses were identified in 38 persons who were cases of MSI. The subjects were grouped into categories based on diagnostic subgroups of congenital (1), traumatic (17), infective (2) neurological (6) and other acquired(19). They were also separated into mild (42.1%), moderate (42.1%) and severe (15.8%) cases, using an operational definition derived from the World Health Organisation's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health. Conclusion: The screening tool had good sensitivity and specificity and was appropriate for use in a national survey. The pilot study showed that the survey protocol was appropriate for measuring the prevalence of MSI in Rwanda. This survey is an important step to building a sound epidemiological understanding of MSI, to enable appropriate health service planning. PMID:17391509

Awareness, trial, and current use of electronic cigarettes in 10 countries: Findings from the ITC project.

PubMed

Gravely, Shannon; Fong, Geoffrey T; Cummings, K Michael; Yan, Mi; Quah, Anne C K; Borland, Ron; Yong, Hua-Hie; Hitchman, Sara C; McNeill, Ann; Hammond, David; Thrasher, James F; Willemsen, Marc C; Seo, Hong Gwan; Jiang, Yuan; Cavalcante, Tania; Perez, Cristina; Omar, Maizurah; Hummel, Karin

2014-11-13

In recent years, electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) have generated considerable interest and debate on the implications for tobacco control and public health. Although the rapid growth of e-cigarettes is global, at present, little is known about awareness and use. This paper presents self-reported awareness, trial and current use of e-cigarettes in 10 countries surveyed between 2009 and 2013; for six of these countries, we present the first data on e-cigarettes from probability samples of adult smokers. A cross-sectional analysis of probability samples of adult (≥ 18 years) current and former smokers participating in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) surveys from 10 countries. Surveys were administered either via phone, face-to-face interviews, or the web. Survey questions included sociodemographic and smoking-related variables, and questions about e-cigarette awareness, trial and current use. There was considerable cross-country variation by year of data collection and for awareness of e-cigarettes (Netherlands (2013: 88%), Republic of Korea (2010: 79%), United States (2010: 73%), Australia (2013: 66%), Malaysia (2011: 62%), United Kingdom (2010: 54%), Canada (2010: 40%), Brazil (2013: 37%), Mexico (2012: 34%), and China (2009: 31%)), in self-reports of ever having tried e-cigarettes (Australia, (20%), Malaysia (19%), Netherlands (18%), United States (15%), Republic of Korea (11%), United Kingdom (10%), Brazil (8%), Mexico (4%), Canada (4%), and China (2%)), and in current use (Malaysia (14%), Republic of Korea (7%), Australia (7%), United States (6%), United Kingdom (4%), Netherlands (3%), Canada (1%), and China (0.05%)) [corrected]. The cross-country variability in awareness, trial, and current use of e-cigarettes is likely due to a confluence of country-specific market factors, tobacco control policies and regulations (e.g., the legal status of e-cigarettes and nicotine), and the survey timing along the trajectory of e-cigarette awareness and trial/use in each country. These ITC results constitute an important snapshot of an early stage of what appears to be a rapid progression of global e-cigarette use.

Variance in age-specific sex composition of Pacific halibut catches, and comparison of statistical and genetic methods for reconstructing sex ratios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loher, Timothy; Woods, Monica A.; Jimenez-Hidalgo, Isadora; Hauser, Lorenz

2016-01-01

Declines in size at age of Pacific halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis, in concert with sexually-dimorphic growth and a constant minimum commercial size limit, have led to the expectation that the sex composition of commercial catches should be increasingly female-biased. Sensitivity analyses suggest that variance in sex composition of landings may be the most influential source of uncertainty affecting current understanding of spawning stock biomass. However, there is no reliable way to determine sex at landing because all halibut are eviscerated at sea. In 2014, a statistical method based on survey data was developed to estimate the probability that fish of any given length at age (LAA) would be female, derived from the fundamental observation that large, young fish are likely female whereas small, old fish have a high probability of being male. Here, we examine variability in age-specific sex composition using at-sea commercial and closed-season survey catches, and compare the accuracy of the survey-based LAA technique to genetic markers for reconstructing the sex composition of catches. Sexing by LAA performed best for summer-collected samples, consistent with the hypothesis that the ability to characterize catches can be influenced by seasonal demographic shifts. Additionally, differences between survey and commercial selectivity that allow fishers to harvest larger fish within cohorts may generate important mismatch between survey and commercial datasets. Length-at-age-based estimates ranged from 4.7% underestimation of female proportion to 12.0% overestimation, with mean error of 5.8 ± 1.5%. Ratios determined by genetics were closer to true sample proportions and displayed less variability; estimation to within < 1% of true ratios was limited to genetics. Genetic estimation of female proportions ranged from 4.9% underestimation to 2.5% overestimation, with a mean absolute error of 1.2 ± 1.2%. Males were generally more difficult to assign than females: 6.7% of males and 3.4% of females were incorrectly assigned. Although nuclear microsatellites proved more consistent at partitioning catches by sex, we recommend that SNP assays be developed to allow for rapid, cost-effective, and accurate sex identification.

Prevalence of HIV at the Kokoyo informal gold mining site: what lies behind the glitter of gold with regard to HIV epidemics in Mali? A community-based approach (the ANRS-12339 Sanu Gundo cross-sectional survey)

PubMed Central

Balique, Hubert; Diallo, Fodié; Kalampalikis, Nikos; Mora, Marion; Bourrelly, Michel; Spire, Bruno; Dembélé Keita, Bintou

2017-01-01

Objectives The aim of this article was to estimate HIV prevalence and the factors associated with HIV seropositivity in the population living and working at the informal artisanal small-scale gold mining (IASGM) site of Kokoyo in Mali, using data from the Sanu Gundo survey. Our main hypothesis was that HIV prevalence is higher in the context of IASGM than in the country as a whole. Design The ANRS-12339 Sanu Gundo was a cross-sectional survey conducted in December 2015. The quantitative survey consisted of face-to-face administration of questionnaires. Five focus groups were conducted for the qualitative survey. HIV prevalence was calculated for the sample, and according to the type of activity performed in IASGM. Settings The IASGM site of Kokoyo, one of the largest sites in Mali (between 6000 and 1000 people). Participants 224 respondents: 37.5% were gold-diggers, 33% retail traders, 6.7% tombolomas (ie, traditional guards) and 9% female sex workers. The remaining 13.8% reported another activity (mainly street vending). Primary and secondary outcome measures HIV prevalence and HIV prevalence according to subgroup, as defined by their activity at the Kokoyo IASGM. A probit logistic regression was implemented to estimate the characteristics associated with HIV seropositivity. Results HIV prevalence for the total sample was 8% (95% CI 7.7% to 8.3%), which is much higher than the 2015 national prevalence of 1.3%Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). The probability of HIV seropositivity was 7.8% (p=0.037) higher for female non-sex workers than for any other category, and this probability increased significantly with age. Qualitative data revealed the non-systematic use of condoms with sex workers; and long distance from health services was the main barrier to accessing care. Conclusions Integrated policymaking should pay special attention to infectious diseases among populations in IASGM zones. Bringing information/prevention activities closer to people working in gold mining zones is an urgent public health action. PMID:28775190

Measuring Generalized Trust: An Examination of Question Wording and the Number of Scale Points.

PubMed

Lundmark, Sebastian; Gilljam, Mikael; Dahlberg, Stefan

2016-01-01

Survey institutes recently have changed their measurement of generalized trust from the standard dichotomous scale to an 11-point scale. Additionally, numerous survey institutes use different question wordings: where most rely on the standard, fully balanced question (asking if "most people can be trusted or that you need to be very careful in dealing with people"), some use minimally balanced questions, asking only if it is "possible to trust people." By using two survey-embedded experiments, one with 12,009 self-selected respondents and the other with a probability sample of 2,947 respondents, this study evaluates the generalized trust question in terms of question wording and number of scale points used. Results show that, contrary to the more commonly used standard question format (used, for example, by the American National Election Studies and the General Social Survey), generalized trust is best measured with a minimally balanced question wording accompanied with either a seven- or an 11-point scale.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

The characteristics and use patterns of all-terrain vehicle drivers in the United States.

PubMed

Rodgers, G B

1999-07-01

The consent decrees between the US Consumer Product Safety Commission and the major distributors of all-terrain vehicles (ATV), which were designed to address ATV-related injuries and deaths, expired in April, 1998. While national estimates of nonfatal and fatal injuries involving ATVs declined after the consent decrees went into effect 10 years ago, the injury estimates have stabilized in recent years. To gain a better understanding of current ATV use patterns, the CPSC sponsored a national probability survey of ATV drivers in the fall of 1997. The survey was designed to collect information about the characteristics and use patterns of ATV drivers and to quantify the numbers and types of ATVs in use. It employed a single stage list-assisted random-digit-dial sample design. This article describes the results of the survey, and discusses long term ATV usage trends.

Using Detection Dogs to Conduct Simultaneous Surveys of Northern Spotted (Strix occidentalis caurina) and Barred Owls (Strix varia)

PubMed Central

Wasser, Samuel K.; Hayward, Lisa S.; Hartman, Jennifer; Booth, Rebecca K.; Broms, Kristin; Berg, Jodi; Seely, Elizabeth; Lewis, Lyle; Smith, Heath

2012-01-01

State and federal actions to conserve northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat are largely initiated by establishing habitat occupancy. Northern spotted owl occupancy is typically assessed by eliciting their response to simulated conspecific vocalizations. However, proximity of barred owls (Strix varia)–a significant threat to northern spotted owls–can suppress northern spotted owl responsiveness to vocalization surveys and hence their probability of detection. We developed a survey method to simultaneously detect both species that does not require vocalization. Detection dogs (Canis familiaris) located owl pellets accumulated under roost sites, within search areas selected using habitat association maps. We compared success of detection dog surveys to vocalization surveys slightly modified from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Draft 2010 Survey Protocol. Seventeen 2 km ×2 km polygons were each surveyed multiple times in an area where northern spotted owls were known to nest prior to 1997 and barred owl density was thought to be low. Mitochondrial DNA was used to confirm species from pellets detected by dogs. Spotted owl and barred owl detection probabilities were significantly higher for dog than vocalization surveys. For spotted owls, this difference increased with number of site visits. Cumulative detection probabilities of northern spotted owls were 29% after session 1, 62% after session 2, and 87% after session 3 for dog surveys, compared to 25% after session 1, increasing to 59% by session 6 for vocalization surveys. Mean detection probability for barred owls was 20.1% for dog surveys and 7.3% for vocal surveys. Results suggest that detection dog surveys can complement vocalization surveys by providing a reliable method for establishing occupancy of both northern spotted and barred owl without requiring owl vocalization. This helps meet objectives of Recovery Actions 24 and 25 of the Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl. PMID:22916175

Using detection dogs to conduct simultaneous surveys of northern spotted (Strix occidentalis caurina) and barred owls (Strix varia).

PubMed

Wasser, Samuel K; Hayward, Lisa S; Hartman, Jennifer; Booth, Rebecca K; Broms, Kristin; Berg, Jodi; Seely, Elizabeth; Lewis, Lyle; Smith, Heath

2012-01-01

State and federal actions to conserve northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat are largely initiated by establishing habitat occupancy. Northern spotted owl occupancy is typically assessed by eliciting their response to simulated conspecific vocalizations. However, proximity of barred owls (Strix varia)-a significant threat to northern spotted owls-can suppress northern spotted owl responsiveness to vocalization surveys and hence their probability of detection. We developed a survey method to simultaneously detect both species that does not require vocalization. Detection dogs (Canis familiaris) located owl pellets accumulated under roost sites, within search areas selected using habitat association maps. We compared success of detection dog surveys to vocalization surveys slightly modified from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's Draft 2010 Survey Protocol. Seventeen 2 km × 2 km polygons were each surveyed multiple times in an area where northern spotted owls were known to nest prior to 1997 and barred owl density was thought to be low. Mitochondrial DNA was used to confirm species from pellets detected by dogs. Spotted owl and barred owl detection probabilities were significantly higher for dog than vocalization surveys. For spotted owls, this difference increased with number of site visits. Cumulative detection probabilities of northern spotted owls were 29% after session 1, 62% after session 2, and 87% after session 3 for dog surveys, compared to 25% after session 1, increasing to 59% by session 6 for vocalization surveys. Mean detection probability for barred owls was 20.1% for dog surveys and 7.3% for vocal surveys. Results suggest that detection dog surveys can complement vocalization surveys by providing a reliable method for establishing occupancy of both northern spotted and barred owl without requiring owl vocalization. This helps meet objectives of Recovery Actions 24 and 25 of the Revised Recovery Plan for the Northern Spotted Owl.

The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

PubMed Central

Larget, Bret

2013-01-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

Efficacy of Visual Surveys for White-Nose Syndrome at Bat Hibernacula.

PubMed

Janicki, Amanda F; Frick, Winifred F; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Parise, Katy L; Foster, Jeffrey T; McCracken, Gary F

2015-01-01

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is an epizootic disease in hibernating bats caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Surveillance for P. destructans at bat hibernacula consists primarily of visual surveys of bats, collection of potentially infected bats, and submission of these bats for laboratory testing. Cryptic infections (bats that are infected but display no visual signs of fungus) could lead to the mischaracterization of the infection status of a site and the inadvertent spread of P. destructans. We determined the efficacy of visual detection of P. destructans by examining visual signs and molecular detection of P. destructans on 928 bats of six species at 27 sites during surveys conducted from January through March in 2012-2014 in the southeastern USA on the leading edge of the disease invasion. Cryptic infections were widespread with 77% of bats that tested positive by qPCR showing no visible signs of infection. The probability of exhibiting visual signs of infection increased with sampling date and pathogen load, the latter of which was substantially higher in three species (Myotis lucifugus, M. septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus). In addition, M. lucifugus was more likely to show visual signs of infection than other species given the same pathogen load. Nearly all infections were cryptic in three species (Eptesicus fuscus, M. grisescens, and M. sodalis), which had much lower fungal loads. The presence of M. lucifugus or M. septentrionalis at a site increased the probability that P. destructans was visually detected on bats. Our results suggest that cryptic infections of P. destructans are common in all bat species, and visible infections rarely occur in some species. However, due to very high infection prevalence and loads in some species, we estimate that visual surveys examining at least 17 individuals of M. lucifugus and M. septentrionalis, or 29 individuals of P. subflavus are still effective to determine whether a site has bats infected with P. destructans. In addition, because the probability of visually detecting the fungus was higher later in winter, surveys should be done as close to the end of the hibernation period as possible.

Efficacy of Visual Surveys for White-Nose Syndrome at Bat Hibernacula

PubMed Central

Janicki, Amanda F.; Frick, Winifred F.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Parise, Katy L.; Foster, Jeffrey T.; McCracken, Gary F.

2015-01-01

White-Nose Syndrome (WNS) is an epizootic disease in hibernating bats caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans. Surveillance for P. destructans at bat hibernacula consists primarily of visual surveys of bats, collection of potentially infected bats, and submission of these bats for laboratory testing. Cryptic infections (bats that are infected but display no visual signs of fungus) could lead to the mischaracterization of the infection status of a site and the inadvertent spread of P. destructans. We determined the efficacy of visual detection of P. destructans by examining visual signs and molecular detection of P. destructans on 928 bats of six species at 27 sites during surveys conducted from January through March in 2012–2014 in the southeastern USA on the leading edge of the disease invasion. Cryptic infections were widespread with 77% of bats that tested positive by qPCR showing no visible signs of infection. The probability of exhibiting visual signs of infection increased with sampling date and pathogen load, the latter of which was substantially higher in three species (Myotis lucifugus, M. septentrionalis, and Perimyotis subflavus). In addition, M. lucifugus was more likely to show visual signs of infection than other species given the same pathogen load. Nearly all infections were cryptic in three species (Eptesicus fuscus, M. grisescens, and M. sodalis), which had much lower fungal loads. The presence of M. lucifugus or M. septentrionalis at a site increased the probability that P. destructans was visually detected on bats. Our results suggest that cryptic infections of P. destructans are common in all bat species, and visible infections rarely occur in some species. However, due to very high infection prevalence and loads in some species, we estimate that visual surveys examining at least 17 individuals of M. lucifugus and M. septentrionalis, or 29 individuals of P. subflavus are still effective to determine whether a site has bats infected with P. destructans. In addition, because the probability of visually detecting the fungus was higher later in winter, surveys should be done as close to the end of the hibernation period as possible. PMID:26197236

More than Just Convenient: The Scientific Merits of Homogeneous Convenience Samples

PubMed Central

Jager, Justin; Putnick, Diane L.; Bornstein, Marc H.

2017-01-01

Despite their disadvantaged generalizability relative to probability samples, non-probability convenience samples are the standard within developmental science, and likely will remain so because probability samples are cost-prohibitive and most available probability samples are ill-suited to examine developmental questions. In lieu of focusing on how to eliminate or sharply reduce reliance on convenience samples within developmental science, here we propose how to augment their advantages when it comes to understanding population effects as well as subpopulation differences. Although all convenience samples have less clear generalizability than probability samples, we argue that homogeneous convenience samples have clearer generalizability relative to conventional convenience samples. Therefore, when researchers are limited to convenience samples, they should consider homogeneous convenience samples as a positive alternative to conventional or heterogeneous) convenience samples. We discuss future directions as well as potential obstacles to expanding the use of homogeneous convenience samples in developmental science. PMID:28475254

A national survey to determine prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among pregnant women in Ecuador.

PubMed

Costales, Jaime A; Sánchez-Gómez, Amaya; Silva-Aycaguer, Luis C; Cevallos, William; Tamayo, Susana; Yumiseva, César A; Jacobson, Jerry O; Martini, Luiggi; Carrera, Caty A; Grijalva, Mario J

2015-04-01

A nationwide survey was conducted to obtain an estimate of Chagas disease prevalence among pregnant women in Ecuador. As part of a national probability sample, 5,420 women seeking care for delivery or miscarriage at 15 healthcare facilities were recruited into the study. A small minority of participants reported knowing about Chagas disease or recognized the vector. A national seroprevalence of 0.1% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.0-0.2%) was found; cases were concentrated in the coastal region (seroprevalence = 0.2%; 95% CI = 0.0-0.4%). No cases of transmission to neonates were identified in the sample. Seropositive participants were referred to the National Chagas Program for evaluation and treatment. Additional studies are necessary to determine if areas of higher prevalence exist in well-known endemic provinces and guide the development of a national strategy for elimination of mother-to-child transmission of Chagas disease in Ecuador. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

A National Survey to Determine Prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi Infection among Pregnant Women in Ecuador

PubMed Central

Costales, Jaime A.; Sánchez-Gómez, Amaya; Silva-Aycaguer, Luis C.; Cevallos, William; Tamayo, Susana; Yumiseva, César A.; Jacobson, Jerry O.; Martini, Luiggi; Carrera, Caty A.; Grijalva, Mario J.

2015-01-01

A nationwide survey was conducted to obtain an estimate of Chagas disease prevalence among pregnant women in Ecuador. As part of a national probability sample, 5,420 women seeking care for delivery or miscarriage at 15 healthcare facilities were recruited into the study. A small minority of participants reported knowing about Chagas disease or recognized the vector. A national seroprevalence of 0.1% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.0–0.2%) was found; cases were concentrated in the coastal region (seroprevalence = 0.2%; 95% CI = 0.0–0.4%). No cases of transmission to neonates were identified in the sample. Seropositive participants were referred to the National Chagas Program for evaluation and treatment. Additional studies are necessary to determine if areas of higher prevalence exist in well-known endemic provinces and guide the development of a national strategy for elimination of mother-to-child transmission of Chagas disease in Ecuador. PMID:25667052

Lifetime Prevalence of Suicide Attempts Among Sexual Minority Adults by Study Sampling Strategies: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Hottes, Travis Salway; Bogaert, Laura; Rhodes, Anne E; Brennan, David J; Gesink, Dionne

2016-05-01

Previous reviews have demonstrated a higher risk of suicide attempts for lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) persons (sexual minorities), compared with heterosexual groups, but these were restricted to general population studies, thereby excluding individuals sampled through LGB community venues. Each sampling strategy, however, has particular methodological strengths and limitations. For instance, general population probability studies have defined sampling frames but are prone to information bias associated with underreporting of LGB identities. By contrast, LGB community surveys may support disclosure of sexuality but overrepresent individuals with strong LGB community attachment. To reassess the burden of suicide-related behavior among LGB adults, directly comparing estimates derived from population- versus LGB community-based samples. In 2014, we searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, and Scopus databases for articles addressing suicide-related behavior (ideation, attempts) among sexual minorities. We selected quantitative studies of sexual minority adults conducted in nonclinical settings in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. Random effects meta-analysis and meta-regression assessed for a difference in prevalence of suicide-related behavior by sample type, adjusted for study or sample-level variables, including context (year, country), methods (medium, response rate), and subgroup characteristics (age, gender, sexual minority construct). We examined residual heterogeneity by using τ(2). We pooled 30 cross-sectional studies, including 21,201 sexual minority adults, generating the following lifetime prevalence estimates of suicide attempts: 4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 3%, 5%) for heterosexual respondents to population surveys, 11% (95% CI = 8%, 15%) for LGB respondents to population surveys, and 20% (95% CI = 18%, 22%) for LGB respondents to community surveys (Figure 1). The difference in LGB estimates by sample type persisted after we accounted for covariates with meta-regression. Sample type explained 33% of the between-study variability. Regardless of sample type examined, sexual minorities had a higher lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts than heterosexual persons; however, the magnitude of this disparity was contingent upon sample type. Community-based surveys of LGB people suggest that 20% of sexual minority adults have attempted suicide. Accurate estimates of sexual minority health disparities are necessary for public health monitoring and research. Most data describing these disparities are derived from 2 sample types, which yield different estimates of the lifetime prevalence of suicide attempts. Additional studies should explore the differential effects of selection and information biases on the 2 predominant sampling approaches used to understand sexual minority health.

Estimating detection probability for Canada lynx Lynx canadensis using snow-track surveys in the northern Rocky Mountains, Montana, USA

Treesearch

John R. Squires; Lucretia E. Olson; David L. Turner; Nicholas J. DeCesare; Jay A. Kolbe

2012-01-01

We used snow-tracking surveys to determine the probability of detecting Canada lynx Lynx canadensis in known areas of lynx presence in the northern Rocky Mountains, Montana, USA during the winters of 2006 and 2007. We used this information to determine the minimum number of survey replicates necessary to infer the presence and absence of lynx in areas of similar lynx...

Horvitz-Thompson survey sample methods for estimating large-scale animal abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuel, M.D.; Garton, E.O.

1994-01-01

Large-scale surveys to estimate animal abundance can be useful for monitoring population status and trends, for measuring responses to management or environmental alterations, and for testing ecological hypotheses about abundance. However, large-scale surveys may be expensive and logistically complex. To ensure resources are not wasted on unattainable targets, the goals and uses of each survey should be specified carefully and alternative methods for addressing these objectives always should be considered. During survey design, the impoflance of each survey error component (spatial design, propofiion of detected animals, precision in detection) should be considered carefully to produce a complete statistically based survey. Failure to address these three survey components may produce population estimates that are inaccurate (biased low), have unrealistic precision (too precise) and do not satisfactorily meet the survey objectives. Optimum survey design requires trade-offs in these sources of error relative to the costs of sampling plots and detecting animals on plots, considerations that are specific to the spatial logistics and survey methods. The Horvitz-Thompson estimators provide a comprehensive framework for considering all three survey components during the design and analysis of large-scale wildlife surveys. Problems of spatial and temporal (especially survey to survey) heterogeneity in detection probabilities have received little consideration, but failure to account for heterogeneity produces biased population estimates. The goal of producing unbiased population estimates is in conflict with the increased variation from heterogeneous detection in the population estimate. One solution to this conflict is to use an MSE-based approach to achieve a balance between bias reduction and increased variation. Further research is needed to develop methods that address spatial heterogeneity in detection, evaluate the effects of temporal heterogeneity on survey objectives and optimize decisions related to survey bias and variance. Finally, managers and researchers involved in the survey design process must realize that obtaining the best survey results requires an interactive and recursive process of survey design, execution, analysis and redesign. Survey refinements will be possible as further knowledge is gained on the actual abundance and distribution of the population and on the most efficient techniques for detection animals.

Alcohol consumption and binge drinking among U.S.-Mexico border and non-border Mexican Americans

PubMed Central

Caetano, Raul; Mills, Britain; Vaeth, Patrice A. C.

2011-01-01

Background This paper examines differences in drinking and binge drinking between Mexican Americans living along the U.S.-Mexico border and those living in two metropolitan areas away from the border (Houston, Texas, and Los Angeles, California). Methods Respondents in the non-border area (Houston and Los Angeles) constitute a multistage probability sample (N=1,288) who were interviewed as part of the 2006 Hispanic Americans Baseline Alcohol Survey (HABLAS). Respondents in the border area (N=1,307) constitute a household probability sample of Mexican Americans living on the U.S.-Mexico border. In both surveys, data were collected during computer assisted interviews conducted in respondents’ homes. The HABLAS and the border sample response rates were 76% and 67%, respectively. Results There were no differences between border and non-border Mexican American men in the proportion of drinkers, the proportion who binge drink at least once a year and volume of alcohol consumption. However, within each location, there were significant differences in drinking by age, indicating that younger men drank more than men who were older. Border women showed significant differences across age groups in the proportion of drinkers, in binge drinking and volume of alcohol consumption, which were not seen among non-border women. Conclusions Women’s drinking seems to be more affected than men’s by their residence on or off the U.S.-Mexico border. This is seen most clearly among young women 18–29 years old and it is associated with an increased proportion of drinkers, a higher volume of drinking and an increased proportion of women who report binge drinking. Increased drinking in this group of younger women seems to be associated with drinking in Mexico. PMID:22017228

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winters, Karl E.

2012-01-01

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

2011-01-01

Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability of detection of individual manatees within a group also differed among surveys, ranging from a low of 0.27 on 11 January to a high of 0.73 on 8 August. During winter surveys, abundance was always higher inland at Port of the Islands (POI), a manatee warm-water aggregation site, than in the other habitat types. During warm-season surveys, highest abundances were estimated in offshore habitat where manatees forage on seagrass. Manatees continued to use POI in summer, but in lower numbers than in winter, possibly to drink freshwater. Abundance in other inland systems and inshore bays was low compared to POI in winter and summer, possibly because of low availability of freshwater. During cold weather, maps of patch abundance of paired surveys showed daily changes in manatee distribution associated with rapid changes in air and water temperature as manatees sought warm water with falling temperatures and seagrass areas with increasing temperatures. Within a habitat type, some patches had higher manatee abundance suggesting differences in quality, possibly due to freshwater flow. If hydrological restoration alters the location of quality habitat, postrestoration comparisons using our methods will document how manatees adjust to new resources, providing managers with information on spatial needs for further monitoring or management. Total abundance for the entire area was similar among survey dates. Credible intervals however were large on a few surveys, and may limit our ability to statistically detect trends in total abundance. Additional modeling of abundance with time- and patch-specific covariates of salinity, water temperature, and seagrass abundance will directly link manatee abundance with physical and biological changes due to restoration and should decrease uncertainty of estimates.

Star formation rates in isolated galaxies selected from the Two-Micron All-Sky Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnyk, O.; Karachentseva, V.; Karachentsev, I.

2015-08-01

We have considered the star formation properties of 1616 isolated galaxies from the 2MASS XSC (Extended Source Catalog) selected sample (2MIG) with the far-ultraviolet GALEX magnitudes. This sample was then compared with corresponding properties of isolated galaxies from the Local Orphan Galaxies (LOG) catalogue and paired galaxies. We found that different selection algorithms define different populations of isolated galaxies. The population of the LOG catalogue, selected from non-clustered galaxies in the Local Supercluster volume, mostly consists of low-mass spiral and late-type galaxies. The specific star formation rate (SSFR) upper limit in isolated and paired galaxies does not exceed the value of ˜dex(-9.4). This is probably common for galaxies of differing activity and environment (at least at z < 0.06). The fractions of quenched galaxies are nearly twice as high in the paired galaxy sample as in the 2MIG isolated galaxy sample. From the behaviour of (S)SFR versus M* relations we deduced that the characteristic value influencing evolutionary processes is the galaxy mass. However, the environmental influence is notable: paired massive galaxies with logM* > 11.5 have higher (S)SFR than isolated galaxies. Our results suggest that the environment helps to trigger the star formation in the highest mass galaxies. We found that the fraction of AGN in the paired sample is only a little higher than in our isolated galaxy sample. We assume that AGN phenomenon is probably defined by secular galaxy evolution.

A cautionary note on substituting spatial subunits for repeated temporal sampling in studies of site occupancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, William L.; White, Gary C.

2009-01-01

1. Assessing the probability that a given site is occupied by a species of interest is important to resource managers, as well as metapopulation or landscape ecologists. Managers require accurate estimates of the state of the system, in order to make informed decisions. Models that yield estimates of occupancy, while accounting for imperfect detection, have proven useful by removing a potentially important source of bias. To account for detection probability, multiple independent searches per site for the species are required, under the assumption that the species is available for detection during each search of an occupied site. 2. We demonstrate that when multiple samples per site are defined by searching different locations within a site, absence of the species from a subset of these spatial subunits induces estimation bias when locations are exhaustively assessed or sampled without replacement. 3. We further demonstrate that this bias can be removed by choosing sampling locations with replacement, or if the species is highly mobile over a short period of time. 4. Resampling an existing data set does not mitigate bias due to exhaustive assessment of locations or sampling without replacement. 5. Synthesis and applications. Selecting sampling locations for presence/absence surveys with replacement is practical in most cases. Such an adjustment to field methods will prevent one source of bias, and therefore produce more robust statistical inferences about species occupancy. This will in turn permit managers to make resource decisions based on better knowledge of the state of the system.

A decade of aquatic invasive species (AIS) early detection ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As an invasion prone location, the St. Louis River Estuary (SLRE) has been a case study for ongoing research to develop the framework for a practical Great Lakes monitoring network for early detection of aquatic invasive species (AIS). Early detection, however, necessitates finding new invaders before they are common. Here we outline our research (2005 present) approach and findings, including strategies to increase detection efficiency by optimizing specimen collection and identification methods. Initial surveys were designed to over-sample to amass data as the basis for numerical experiments to investigate to the effort required for a given detection probability. Later surveys tested the outcome of implementing these strategies, examined the potential benefits of sampling larval fish instead of adults and explored the prospect of using advanced DNA based methods as an alternative to traditional taxonomy. To date we have identified several previously undetected invertebrate invaders, developed survey design and gear recommendations and have refined the search strategy for systems beyond the SLRE. In addition, because we’ve accumulated such a large body of data we now have the basis to show spatial-temporal trends for native and non-native species in the SLRE. not applicable

A Bayesian hierarchical model for mortality data from cluster-sampling household surveys in humanitarian crises.

PubMed

Heudtlass, Peter; Guha-Sapir, Debarati; Speybroeck, Niko

2018-05-31

The crude death rate (CDR) is one of the defining indicators of humanitarian emergencies. When data from vital registration systems are not available, it is common practice to estimate the CDR from household surveys with cluster-sampling design. However, sample sizes are often too small to compare mortality estimates to emergency thresholds, at least in a frequentist framework. Several authors have proposed Bayesian methods for health surveys in humanitarian crises. Here, we develop an approach specifically for mortality data and cluster-sampling surveys. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson-Gamma mixture model with generic (weakly informative) priors that could be used as default in absence of any specific prior knowledge, and compare Bayesian and frequentist CDR estimates using five different mortality datasets. We provide an interpretation of the Bayesian estimates in the context of an emergency threshold and demonstrate how to interpret parameters at the cluster level and ways in which informative priors can be introduced. With the same set of weakly informative priors, Bayesian CDR estimates are equivalent to frequentist estimates, for all practical purposes. The probability that the CDR surpasses the emergency threshold can be derived directly from the posterior of the mean of the mixing distribution. All observation in the datasets contribute to the estimation of cluster-level estimates, through the hierarchical structure of the model. In a context of sparse data, Bayesian mortality assessments have advantages over frequentist ones already when using only weakly informative priors. More informative priors offer a formal and transparent way of combining new data with existing data and expert knowledge and can help to improve decision-making in humanitarian crises by complementing frequentist estimates.

Design and methods in a survey of living conditions in the Arctic - the SLiCA study.

PubMed

Eliassen, Bent-Martin; Melhus, Marita; Kruse, Jack; Poppel, Birger; Broderstad, Ann Ragnhild

2012-03-19

The main objective of this study is to describe the methods and design of the survey of living conditions in the Arctic (SLiCA), relevant participation rates and the distribution of participants, as applicable to the survey data in Alaska, Greenland and Norway. This article briefly addresses possible selection bias in the data and also the ways to tackle it in future studies. Population-based cross-sectional survey. Indigenous individuals aged 16 years and older, living in Greenland, Alaska and in traditional settlement areas in Norway, were invited to participate. Random sampling methods were applied in Alaska and Greenland, while non-probability sampling methods were applied in Norway. Data were collected in 3 periods: in Alaska, from January 2002 to February 2003; in Greenland, from December 2003 to August 2006; and in Norway, in 2003 and from June 2006 to June 2008. The principal method in SLiCA was standardised face-to-face interviews using a questionnaire. A total of 663, 1,197 and 445 individuals were interviewed in Alaska, Greenland and Norway, respectively. Very high overall participation rates of 83% were obtained in Greenland and Alaska, while a more conventional rate of 57% was achieved in Norway. A predominance of female respondents was obtained in Alaska. Overall, the Sami cohort is older than the cohorts from Greenland and Alaska. Preliminary assessments suggest that selection bias in the Sami sample is plausible but not a major threat. Few or no threats to validity are detected in the data from Alaska and Greenland. Despite different sampling and recruitment methods, and sociocultural differences, a unique database has been generated, which shall be used to explore relationships between health and other living conditions variables.

Food provisioning and parental status in songbirds: can occupancy models be used to estimate nesting performance?

PubMed

Corbani, Aude Catherine; Hachey, Marie-Hélène; Desrochers, André

2014-01-01

Indirect methods to estimate parental status, such as the observation of parental provisioning, have been problematic due to potential biases associated with imperfect detection. We developed a method to evaluate parental status based on a novel combination of parental provisioning observations and hierarchical modeling. In the summers of 2009 to 2011, we surveyed 393 sites, each on three to four consecutive days at Forêt Montmorency, Québec, Canada. We assessed parental status of 2331 adult songbirds based on parental food provisioning. To account for imperfect detection of parental status, we applied MacKenzie et al.'s (2002) two-state hierarchical model to obtain unbiased estimates of the proportion of sites with successfully nesting birds, and the proportion of adults with offspring. To obtain an independent evaluation of detection probability, we monitored 16 active nests in 2010 and conducted parental provisioning observations away from them. The probability of detecting food provisioning was 0.31 when using nest monitoring, a value within the 0.11 to 0.38 range that was estimated by two-state models. The proportion of adults or sites with broods approached 0.90 and varied depending on date during the sampling season and year, exemplifying the role of eastern boreal forests as highly productive nesting grounds for songbirds. This study offers a simple and effective sampling design for studying avian reproductive performance that could be implemented in national surveys such as breeding bird atlases.

Food Provisioning and Parental Status in Songbirds: Can Occupancy Models Be Used to Estimate Nesting Performance?

PubMed Central

Corbani, Aude Catherine; Hachey, Marie-Hélène; Desrochers, André

2014-01-01

Indirect methods to estimate parental status, such as the observation of parental provisioning, have been problematic due to potential biases associated with imperfect detection. We developed a method to evaluate parental status based on a novel combination of parental provisioning observations and hierarchical modeling. In the summers of 2009 to 2011, we surveyed 393 sites, each on three to four consecutive days at Forêt Montmorency, Québec, Canada. We assessed parental status of 2331 adult songbirds based on parental food provisioning. To account for imperfect detection of parental status, we applied MacKenzie et al.'s (2002) two-state hierarchical model to obtain unbiased estimates of the proportion of sites with successfully nesting birds, and the proportion of adults with offspring. To obtain an independent evaluation of detection probability, we monitored 16 active nests in 2010 and conducted parental provisioning observations away from them. The probability of detecting food provisioning was 0.31 when using nest monitoring, a value within the 0.11 to 0.38 range that was estimated by two-state models. The proportion of adults or sites with broods approached 0.90 and varied depending on date during the sampling season and year, exemplifying the role of eastern boreal forests as highly productive nesting grounds for songbirds. This study offers a simple and effective sampling design for studying avian reproductive performance that could be implemented in national surveys such as breeding bird atlases. PMID:24999969

Quantifying uncertainty in geoacoustic inversion. II. Application to broadband, shallow-water data.

PubMed

Dosso, Stan E; Nielsen, Peter L

2002-01-01

This paper applies the new method of fast Gibbs sampling (FGS) to estimate the uncertainties of seabed geoacoustic parameters in a broadband, shallow-water acoustic survey, with the goal of interpreting the survey results and validating the method for experimental data. FGS applies a Bayesian approach to geoacoustic inversion based on sampling the posterior probability density to estimate marginal probability distributions and parameter covariances. This requires knowledge of the statistical distribution of the data errors, including both measurement and theory errors, which is generally not available. Invoking the simplifying assumption of independent, identically distributed Gaussian errors allows a maximum-likelihood estimate of the data variance and leads to a practical inversion algorithm. However, it is necessary to validate these assumptions, i.e., to verify that the parameter uncertainties obtained represent meaningful estimates. To this end, FGS is applied to a geoacoustic experiment carried out at a site off the west coast of Italy where previous acoustic and geophysical studies have been performed. The parameter uncertainties estimated via FGS are validated by comparison with: (i) the variability in the results of inverting multiple independent data sets collected during the experiment; (ii) the results of FGS inversion of synthetic test cases designed to simulate the experiment and data errors; and (iii) the available geophysical ground truth. Comparisons are carried out for a number of different source bandwidths, ranges, and levels of prior information, and indicate that FGS provides reliable and stable uncertainty estimates for the geoacoustic inverse problem.

Mark-resight abundance estimation under incomplete identification of marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

McClintock, Brett T.; Hill, Jason M.; Fritz, Lowell; Chumbley, Kathryn; Luxa, Katie; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Often less expensive and less invasive than conventional mark–recapture, so-called 'mark-resight' methods are popular in the estimation of population abundance. These methods are most often applied when a subset of the population of interest is marked (naturally or artificially), and non-invasive sighting data can be simultaneously collected for both marked and unmarked individuals. However, it can often be difficult to identify marked individuals with certainty during resighting surveys, and incomplete identification of marked individuals is potentially a major source of bias in mark-resight abundance estimators. Previously proposed solutions are ad hoc and will tend to underperform unless marked individual identification rates are relatively high (>90%) or individual sighting heterogeneity is negligible.Based on a complete data likelihood, we present an approach that properly accounts for uncertainty in marked individual detection histories when incomplete identifications occur. The models allow for individual heterogeneity in detection, sampling with (e.g. Poisson) or without (e.g. Bernoulli) replacement, and an unknown number of marked individuals. Using a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to facilitate Bayesian inference, we demonstrate these models using two example data sets and investigate their properties via simulation experiments.We estimate abundance for grassland sparrow populations in Pennsylvania, USA when sampling was conducted with replacement and the number of marked individuals was either known or unknown. To increase marked individual identification probabilities, extensive territory mapping was used to assign incomplete identifications to individuals based on location. Despite marked individual identification probabilities as low as 67% in the absence of this territorial mapping procedure, we generally found little return (or need) for this time-consuming investment when using our proposed approach. We also estimate rookery abundance from Alaskan Steller sea lion counts when sampling was conducted without replacement, the number of marked individuals was unknown, and individual heterogeneity was suspected as non-negligible.In terms of estimator performance, our simulation experiments and examples demonstrated advantages of our proposed approach over previous methods, particularly when marked individual identification probabilities are low and individual heterogeneity levels are high. Our methodology can also reduce field effort requirements for marked individual identification, thus, allowing potential investment into additional marking events or resighting surveys.

Zonal management of arsenic contaminated ground water in Northwestern Bangladesh.

PubMed

Hill, Jason; Hossain, Faisal; Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C

2009-09-01

This paper used ordinary kriging to spatially map arsenic contamination in shallow aquifers of Northwestern Bangladesh (total area approximately 35,000 km(2)). The Northwestern region was selected because it represents a relatively safer source of large-scale and affordable water supply for the rest of Bangladesh currently faced with extensive arsenic contamination in drinking water (such as the Southern regions). Hence, the work appropriately explored sustainability issues by building upon a previously published study (Hossain et al., 2007; Water Resources Management, vol. 21: 1245-1261) where a more general nation-wide assessment afforded by kriging was identified. The arsenic database for reference comprised the nation-wide survey (of 3534 drinking wells) completed in 1999 by the British Geological Survey (BGS) in collaboration with the Department of Public Health Engineering (DPHE) of Bangladesh. Randomly sampled networks of zones from this reference database were used to develop an empirical variogram and develop maps of zonal arsenic concentration for the Northwestern region. The remaining non-sampled zones from the reference database were used to assess the accuracy of the kriged maps. Two additional criteria were explored: (1) the ability of geostatistical interpolators such as kriging to extrapolate information on spatial structure of arsenic contamination beyond small-scale exploratory domains; (2) the impact of a priori knowledge of anisotropic variability on the effectiveness of geostatistically based management. On the average, the kriging method was found to have a 90% probability of successful prediction of safe zones according to the WHO safe limit of 10ppb while for the Bangladesh safe limit of 50ppb, the safe zone prediction probability was 97%. Compared to the previous study by Hossain et al. (2007) over the rest of the contaminated country side, the probability of successful detection of safe zones in the Northwest is observed to be about 25% higher. An a priori knowledge of anisotropy was found to have inconclusive impact on the effectiveness of kriging. It was, however, hypothesized that a preferential sampling strategy that honored anisotropy could be necessary to reach a more definitive conclusion in regards to this issue.

Estimating species - area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling.

PubMed

Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F; Royle, J Andrew; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

2016-07-01

Models and data used to describe species-area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species-area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species-area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density-area relationships and occurrence probability-area relationships can alter the form of species-area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied to a variety of study designs and allows the inclusion of additional environmental covariates.

Nationwide cross-sectional survey of schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis in Sudan: study protocol.

PubMed

Cha, Seungman; Hong, Sung-Tae; Lee, Young-Ha; Lee, Keon Hoon; Cho, Dae Seong; Lee, Jinmoo; Chai, Jong-Yil; Elhag, Mousab Siddig; Khaled, Soheir Gabralla Ahmad; Elnimeiri, Mustafa Khidir Mustafa; Siddig, Nahid Abdelgadeir Ali; Abdelrazig, Hana; Awadelkareem, Sarah; Elshafie, Azza Tag Eldin; Ismail, Hassan Ahmed Hassan Ahmed; Amin, Mutamad

2017-09-12

Schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STHs) are target neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) of preventive chemotherapy, but the control and elimination of these diseases have been impeded due to resource constraints. Few reports have described study protocol to draw on when conducting a nationwide survey. We present a detailed methodological description of the integrated mapping of schistosomiasis and STHs on the basis of our experiences, hoping that this protocol can be applied to future surveys in similar settings. In addition to determining the ecological zones requiring mass drug administration interventions, we aim to provide precise estimates of the prevalence of these diseases. A school-based cross-sectional design will be applied for the nationwide survey across Sudan. The survey is designed to cover all districts in every state. We have divided each district into 3 different ecological zones depending on proximity to bodies of water. We will employ a probability-proportional-to-size sampling method for schools and systematic sampling for student selection to provide adequate data regarding the prevalence for schistosomiasis and STHs in Sudan at the state level. A total of 108,660 students will be selected from 1811 schools across Sudan. After the survey is completed, 391 ecological zones will be mapped out. To carry out the survey, 655 staff members were recruited. The feces and urine samples are microscopically examined by the Kato-Katz method and the sediment smears for helminth eggs respectively. For quality control, a minimum of 10% of the slides will be rechecked by the federal supervisors in each state and also 5% of the smears are validated again within one day by independent supervisors. This nationwide mapping is expected to generate important epidemiological information and indicators about schistosomiasis and STHs that will be useful for monitoring and evaluating the control program. The mapping data will also be used for overviewing the status and policy formulation and updates to the control strategies. This paper, which describes a feasible and practical study protocol, is to be shared with the global health community, especially those who are planning to perform nationwide mapping of NTDs by feces or urine sampling.

Sampling characteristics and calibration of snorkel counts to estimate stream fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weaver, D.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Pollock, Kenneth

2014-01-01

Snorkeling is a versatile technique for estimating lotic fish population characteristics; however, few investigators have evaluated its accuracy at population or assemblage levels. We evaluated the accuracy of snorkeling using prepositioned areal electrofishing (PAE) for estimating fish populations in a medium-sized Appalachian Mountain river during fall 2008 and summer 2009. Strip-transect snorkel counts were calibrated with PAE counts in identical locations among macrohabitats, fish species or taxa, and seasons. Mean snorkeling efficiency (i.e., the proportion of individuals counted from the true population) among all taxa and seasons was 14.7% (SE, 2.5%), and the highest efficiencies were for River Chub Nocomis micropogon at 21.1% (SE, 5.9%), Central Stoneroller Campostoma anomalum at 20.3% (SE, 9.6%), and darters (Percidae) at 17.1% (SE, 3.7%), whereas efficiencies were lower for shiners (Notropis spp., Cyprinella spp., Luxilus spp.) at 8.2% (SE, 2.2%) and suckers (Catostomidae) at 6.6% (SE, 3.2%). Macrohabitat type, fish taxon, or sampling season did not significantly explain variance in snorkeling efficiency. Mean snorkeling detection probability (i.e., probability of detecting at least one individual of a taxon) among fish taxa and seasons was 58.4% (SE, 6.1%). We applied the efficiencies from our calibration study to adjust snorkel counts from an intensive snorkeling survey conducted in a nearby reach. Total fish density estimates from strip-transect counts adjusted for snorkeling efficiency were 7,288 fish/ha (SE, 1,564) during summer and 15,805 fish/ha (SE, 4,947) during fall. Precision of fish density estimates is influenced by variation in snorkeling efficiency and sample size and may be increased with additional sampling effort. These results demonstrate the sampling properties and utility of snorkeling to characterize lotic fish assemblages with acceptable efficiency and detection probability, less effort, and no mortality, compared with traditional sampling methods.

Changes in Sexual Behavior and Attitudes Across Generations and Gender Among a Population-Based Probability Sample From an Urbanizing Province in Thailand.

PubMed

Techasrivichien, Teeranee; Darawuttimaprakorn, Niphon; Punpuing, Sureeporn; Musumari, Patou Masika; Lukhele, Bhekumusa Wellington; El-Saaidi, Christina; Suguimoto, S Pilar; Feldman, Mitchell D; Ono-Kihara, Masako; Kihara, Masahiro

2016-02-01

Thailand has undergone rapid modernization with implications for changes in sexual norms. We investigated sexual behavior and attitudes across generations and gender among a probability sample of the general population of Nonthaburi province located near Bangkok in 2012. A tablet-based survey was performed among 2,138 men and women aged 15-59 years identified through a three-stage, stratified, probability proportional to size, clustered sampling. Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out accounting for the effects of multistage sampling. Relationship of age and gender to sexual behavior and attitudes was analyzed by bivariate analysis followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to adjust for possible confounding. Patterns of sexual behavior and attitudes varied substantially across generations and gender. We found strong evidence for a decline in the age of sexual initiation, a shift in the type of the first sexual partner, and a greater rate of acceptance of adolescent premarital sex among younger generations. The study highlighted profound changes among young women as evidenced by a higher number of lifetime sexual partners as compared to older women. In contrast to the significant gender gap in older generations, sexual profiles of Thai young women have evolved to resemble those of young men with attitudes gradually converging to similar sexual standards. Our data suggest that higher education, being never-married, and an urban lifestyle may have been associated with these changes. Our study found that Thai sexual norms are changing dramatically. It is vital to continue monitoring such changes, considering the potential impact on the HIV/STIs epidemic and unintended pregnancies.

Protocol for determining bull trout presence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, James; Dunham, Jason B.; Howell, Philip; Thurow, Russell; Bonar, Scott

2002-01-01

The Western Division of the American Fisheries Society was requested to develop protocols for determining presence/absence and potential habitat suitability for bull trout. The general approach adopted is similar to the process for the marbled murrelet, whereby interim guidelines are initially used, and the protocols are subsequently refined as data are collected. Current data were considered inadequate to precisely identify suitable habitat but could be useful in stratifying sampling units for presence/absence surveys. The presence/absence protocol builds on previous approaches (Hillman and Platts 1993; Bonar et al. 1997), except it uses the variation in observed bull trout densities instead of a minimum threshold density and adjusts for measured differences in sampling efficiency due to gear types and habitat characteristics. The protocol consists of: 1. recommended sample sizes with 80% and 95% detection probabilities for juvenile and resident adult bull trout for day and night snorkeling and electrofishing adjusted for varying habitat characteristics for 50m and 100m sampling units, 2. sampling design considerations, including possible habitat characteristics for stratification, 3. habitat variables to be measured in the sampling units, and 3. guidelines for training sampling crews. Criteria for habitat strata consist of coarse, watershed-scale characteristics (e.g., mean annual air temperature) and fine-scale, reach and habitat-specific features (e.g., water temperature, channel width). The protocols will be revised in the future using data from ongoing presence/absence surveys, additional research on sampling efficiencies, and development of models of habitat/species occurrence.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C., E-mail: g.aslanyan@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: lpri691@aucklanduni.ac.nz

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitlymore » describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.« less

QUANTIFYING THE REGIONAL EFFECTS OF MINE DRAINAGE ON STREAM ECOLOGICAL CONDITION IN THE COLORADO ROCKIES FROM PROBABILITY SURVEY DATA

EPA Science Inventory

Runoff from both active and inactive metal mining has contaminated waters and sediments in the Southern Rockies Ecoregion. In 1994 and 1995, as part of its Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (REMAP), the USEPA conducted a probability survey of wadeable stre...

Factors affecting detection of burrowing owl nests during standardized surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Garcia, V.; Smith, M.D.; Hughes, K.

2008-01-01

Identifying causes of declines and evaluating effects of management practices on persistence of local populations of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) requires accurate estimates of abundance and population trends. Moreover, regulatory agencies in the United States and Canada typically require surveys to detect nest burrows prior to approving developments or other activities in areas that are potentially suitable for nesting burrowing owls. In general, guidelines on timing of surveys have been lacking and surveys have been conducted at different times of day and in different stages of the nesting cycle. We used logistic regression to evaluate 7 factors that could potentially affect probability of a surveyor detecting a burrowing owl nest. We conducted 1,444 detection trials at 323 burrowing owl nests within 3 study areas in Washington and Wyoming, USA, between February and August 2000-2002. Detection probability was highest during the nestling period and increased with ambient temperature. The other 5 factors that we examined (i.e., study area, time of day, timing within the breeding season, wind speed, % cloud cover) interacted with another factor to influence detection probability. Use of call-broadcast surveys increased detection probability, even during daylight hours when we detected >95% of owls visually. Optimal timing of surveys will vary due to differences in breeding phenology and differences in nesting behavior across populations. Nevertheless, we recommend ???3 surveys per year: one that coincides with the laying and incubation period, another that coincides with the early nestling period, and a third that coincides with the late nestling period. In northern latitudes, surveys can be conducted throughout the day.

School Progress Among Children of Same-Sex Couples.

PubMed

Watkins, Caleb S

2018-06-01

This study uses logit regressions on a pooled sample of children from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 American Community Survey to perform a nationally representative analysis of school progress for a large sample of 4,430 children who reside with same-sex couples. Odds ratios from regressions that compare children between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to show significant differences in normal school progress between households across a variety of sample compositions. Likewise, marginal effects from regressions that compare children with similar family dynamics between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to predict significantly higher probabilities of grade retention for children of same-sex couples. Significantly lower grade retention rates are sometimes predicted for children of same-sex couples than for different-sex married couples, but these differences are sensitive to sample exclusions and do not indicate causal benefits to same-sex parenting.

Cataloging the Praesepe Cluster: Identifying Interlopers and Binary Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucey, Madeline R.; Gosnell, Natalie M.; Mann, Andrew; Douglas, Stephanie

2018-01-01

We present radial velocity measurements from an ongoing survey of the Praesepe open cluster using the WIYN 3.5m Telescope. Our target stars include 229 early-K to mid-M dwarfs with proper motion memberships that have been observed by the repurposed Kepler mission, K2. With this survey, we will provide a well-constrained membership list of the cluster. By removing interloping stars and determining the cluster binary frequency we can avoid systematic errors in our analysis of the K2 findings and more accurately determine exoplanet properties in the Praesepe cluster. Obtaining accurate exoplanet parameters in open clusters allows us to study the temporal dimension of exoplanet parameter space. We find Praesepe to have a mean radial velocity of 34.09 km/s and a velocity dispersion of 1.13 km/s, which is consistent with previous studies. We derive radial velocity membership probabilities for stars with ≥3 radial velocity measurements and compare against published membership probabilities. We also identify radial velocity variables and potential double-lined spectroscopic binaries. We plan to obtain more observations to determine the radial velocity membership of all the stars in our sample, as well as follow up on radial velocity variables to determine binary orbital solutions.

Probability of detecting band-tailed pigeons during call-broadcast versus auditory surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirkpatrick, C.; Conway, C.J.; Hughes, K.M.; Devos, J.C.

2007-01-01

Estimates of population trend for the interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata fasciata) are not available because no standardized survey method exists for monitoring the interior subspecies. We evaluated 2 potential band-tailed pigeon survey methods (auditory and call-broadcast surveys) from 2002 to 2004 in 5 mountain ranges in southern Arizona, USA, and in mixed-conifer forest throughout the state. Both auditory and call-broadcast surveys produced low numbers of cooing pigeons detected per survey route (x?? ??? 0.67) and had relatively high temporal variance in average number of cooing pigeons detected during replicate surveys (CV ??? 161%). However, compared to auditory surveys, use of call-broadcast increased 1) the percentage of replicate surveys on which ???1 cooing pigeon was detected by an average of 16%, and 2) the number of cooing pigeons detected per survey route by an average of 29%, with this difference being greatest during the first 45 minutes of the morning survey period. Moreover, probability of detecting a cooing pigeon was 27% greater during call-broadcast (0.80) versus auditory (0.63) surveys. We found that cooing pigeons were most common in mixed-conifer forest in southern Arizona and density of male pigeons in mixed-conifer forest throughout the state averaged 0.004 (SE = 0.001) pigeons/ha. Our results are the first to show that call-broadcast increases the probability of detecting band-tailed pigeons (or any species of Columbidae) during surveys. Call-broadcast surveys may provide a useful method for monitoring populations of the interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon in areas where other survey methods are inappropriate.

Awareness of the healthcare system and rights to healthcare in the Colombian population.

PubMed

Delgado Gallego, María Eugenia; Vázquez-Navarrete, María Luisa

2013-01-01

To analyze changes in users' awareness of the healthcare system and of their rights to healthcare in Colombia in the last 10 years, as well as the factors that influence users' awareness. We carried out a descriptive study to compare the results of two cross-sectional studies based on two surveys of users of the Colombian healthcare system. The first survey was performed in 2000 and the second in 2010. The municipalities of Tuluá (urban area) and Palmira (rural area) were surveyed. In both surveys, a stratified, multistage probability sample was selected. There were 1497 users in the first sample and 1405 in the second. Changes in awareness of the healthcare system and associated factors in each year were assessed through multivariate logistic regressions. Users' awareness of the healthcare system was limited in 2000 and was significantly lower in 2010, except for that relating to health insurers and providers. In contrast, more than 90% of users in both surveys perceived themselves as having healthcare rights. The factors consistently associated with greater awareness were belonging to a high socioeconomic stratum and having higher education. The most underprivileged users were less likely to be aware of the healthcare system, hampering their ability to make informed decisions and to exercise their health rights. To correct this situation, health institutions and the government should act decisively to reduce social inequalities. Copyright © 2012 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Shift Work and Obesity among Canadian Women: A Cross-Sectional Study Using a Novel Exposure Assessment Tool

PubMed Central

McGlynn, Natalie; Kirsh, Victoria A.; Cotterchio, Michelle; Harris, M. Anne; Nadalin, Victoria; Kreiger, Nancy

2015-01-01

Background/Objectives It has been suggested that the association between shift work and chronic disease is mediated by an increase in obesity. However, investigations of the relationship between shift work and obesity reveal mixed findings. Using a recently developed exposure assessment tool, this study examined the association between shift work and obesity among Canadian women from two studies: a cohort of university alumni, and a population-based study. Methods Self-administered questionnaire data were used from healthy, currently employed females in a population-based study, the Ontario Women’s Diet and Health case-control study (n = 1611 controls), and from a subset of a of university alumni from the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health (n = 1097) cohort study. Overweight was defined as BMI≥25 to <30, and obesity as BMI≥30. Reported occupation was converted to occupational codes and linked to a probability of shift work value derived from Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics data. Regular evenings, nights, or rotating work comprised shift work. Polytomous logistic regression estimated the association between probability of shift work, categorized as near nil, low, medium, and high probability of shift work, on overweight and obesity, controlling for detected confounders. Results In the population-based sample, high probability of shift work was associated with obesity (reference = near nil probability of shift work, OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.01–3.51, p = 0.047). In the alumni cohort, no significant association was detected between shift work and overweight or obesity. Conclusions As these analyses found a positive association between high probability of shift work exposure and obesity in a population-based sample, but not in an alumni cohort, it is suggested that the relationship between shift work and obesity is complex, and may be particularly susceptible to occupational and education-related factors within a given population. PMID:26376050

Shift Work and Obesity among Canadian Women: A Cross-Sectional Study Using a Novel Exposure Assessment Tool.

PubMed

McGlynn, Natalie; Kirsh, Victoria A; Cotterchio, Michelle; Harris, M Anne; Nadalin, Victoria; Kreiger, Nancy

2015-01-01

It has been suggested that the association between shift work and chronic disease is mediated by an increase in obesity. However, investigations of the relationship between shift work and obesity reveal mixed findings. Using a recently developed exposure assessment tool, this study examined the association between shift work and obesity among Canadian women from two studies: a cohort of university alumni, and a population-based study. Self-administered questionnaire data were used from healthy, currently employed females in a population-based study, the Ontario Women's Diet and Health case-control study (n = 1611 controls), and from a subset of a of university alumni from the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health (n = 1097) cohort study. Overweight was defined as BMI≥25 to <30, and obesity as BMI≥30. Reported occupation was converted to occupational codes and linked to a probability of shift work value derived from Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics data. Regular evenings, nights, or rotating work comprised shift work. Polytomous logistic regression estimated the association between probability of shift work, categorized as near nil, low, medium, and high probability of shift work, on overweight and obesity, controlling for detected confounders. In the population-based sample, high probability of shift work was associated with obesity (reference = near nil probability of shift work, OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.01-3.51, p = 0.047). In the alumni cohort, no significant association was detected between shift work and overweight or obesity. As these analyses found a positive association between high probability of shift work exposure and obesity in a population-based sample, but not in an alumni cohort, it is suggested that the relationship between shift work and obesity is complex, and may be particularly susceptible to occupational and education-related factors within a given population.

SPIDERS: selection of spectroscopic targets using AGN candidates detected in all-sky X-ray surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwelly, T.; Salvato, M.; Merloni, A.; Brusa, M.; Buchner, J.; Anderson, S. F.; Boller, Th.; Brandt, W. N.; Budavári, T.; Clerc, N.; Coffey, D.; Del Moro, A.; Georgakakis, A.; Green, P. J.; Jin, C.; Menzel, M.-L.; Myers, A. D.; Nandra, K.; Nichol, R. C.; Ridl, J.; Schwope, A. D.; Simm, T.

2017-07-01

SPIDERS (SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources) is a Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV) survey running in parallel to the Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) cosmology project. SPIDERS will obtain optical spectroscopy for large numbers of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGN) and galaxy cluster members detected in wide-area eROSITA, XMM-Newton and ROSAT surveys. We describe the methods used to choose spectroscopic targets for two sub-programmes of SPIDERS X-ray selected AGN candidates detected in the ROSAT All Sky and the XMM-Newton Slew surveys. We have exploited a Bayesian cross-matching algorithm, guided by priors based on mid-IR colour-magnitude information from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer survey, to select the most probable optical counterpart to each X-ray detection. We empirically demonstrate the high fidelity of our counterpart selection method using a reference sample of bright well-localized X-ray sources collated from XMM-Newton, Chandra and Swift-XRT serendipitous catalogues, and also by examining blank-sky locations. We describe the down-selection steps which resulted in the final set of SPIDERS-AGN targets put forward for spectroscopy within the eBOSS/TDSS/SPIDERS survey, and present catalogues of these targets. We also present catalogues of ˜12 000 ROSAT and ˜1500 XMM-Newton Slew survey sources that have existing optical spectroscopy from SDSS-DR12, including the results of our visual inspections. On completion of the SPIDERS programme, we expect to have collected homogeneous spectroscopic redshift information over a footprint of ˜7500 deg2 for >85 per cent of the ROSAT and XMM-Newton Slew survey sources having optical counterparts in the magnitude range 17 < r < 22.5, producing a large and highly complete sample of bright X-ray-selected AGN suitable for statistical studies of AGN evolution and clustering.

The efficacy of respondent-driven sampling for the health assessment of minority populations.

PubMed

Badowski, Grazyna; Somera, Lilnabeth P; Simsiman, Brayan; Lee, Hye-Ryeon; Cassel, Kevin; Yamanaka, Alisha; Ren, JunHao

2017-10-01

Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a relatively new network sampling technique typically employed for hard-to-reach populations. Like snowball sampling, initial respondents or "seeds" recruit additional respondents from their network of friends. Under certain assumptions, the method promises to produce a sample independent from the biases that may have been introduced by the non-random choice of "seeds." We conducted a survey on health communication in Guam's general population using the RDS method, the first survey that has utilized this methodology in Guam. It was conducted in hopes of identifying a cost-efficient non-probability sampling strategy that could generate reasonable population estimates for both minority and general populations. RDS data was collected in Guam in 2013 (n=511) and population estimates were compared with 2012 BRFSS data (n=2031) and the 2010 census data. The estimates were calculated using the unweighted RDS sample and the weighted sample using RDS inference methods and compared with known population characteristics. The sample size was reached in 23days, providing evidence that the RDS method is a viable, cost-effective data collection method, which can provide reasonable population estimates. However, the results also suggest that the RDS inference methods used to reduce bias, based on self-reported estimates of network sizes, may not always work. Caution is needed when interpreting RDS study findings. For a more diverse sample, data collection should not be conducted in just one location. Fewer questions about network estimates should be asked, and more careful consideration should be given to the kind of incentives offered to participants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Association between use of marijuana and time to pregnancy in men and women: findings from the National Survey of Family Growth.

PubMed

Kasman, Alex M; Thoma, Marie E; McLain, Alexander C; Eisenberg, Michael L

2018-05-01

To determine if regular use of marijuana has an impact on time to pregnancy. Retrospective review of cross-sectional survey data from male and female respondents aged 15-44 years who participated in the 2002, 2006-2010, and 2011-2015 National Survey of Family Growth. Not applicable. The National Survey of Family Growth is a nationally representative population-based sample derived from stratified multistage area probability sampling of 121 geographic areas in the U.S. Our analytic sample was participants who were actively trying to conceive. Exposure status was based on the respondents' answers regarding their marijuana use in the preceding 12 months. The main outcome was estimated time to pregnancy, which was hypothesized before analysis to be delayed by regular marijuana use. A total of 758 male and 1,076 female participants responded that they were actively trying to conceive. Overall, 16.5% of men reported using any marijuana while attempting to conceive, versus 11.5% of women. The time ratio to pregnancy for never smokers versus daily users of marijuana in men was 1.08 (95% confidence interval 0.79-1.47) and in women 0.92 (0.43-1.95), demonstrating no statistically significant impact of marijuana use on time to pregnancy. Our study suggests that neither marijuana use nor frequency of marijuana use was associated with time to pregnancy for men and women. Copyright © 2018 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Do adult focused anti-smoking campaigns have an impact on adolescents? The case of the Australian National Tobacco Campaign.

PubMed

White, V; Tan, N; Wakefield, M; Hill, D

2003-09-01

To examine adolescents' awareness of and response to an adult focused anti-smoking advertising campaign. Data were obtained from two cross sectional surveys of adolescents. The first study, a national evaluation study, involved a telephone survey of a randomly selected sample of 400 14-17 year olds across Australia in 1998. The second study involved a survey of 3714 students aged 12-17 years, randomly selected from a probability sample of secondary schools in the Australian State of Victoria. In both surveys, adolescents answered questions on their awareness of the advertising campaign and actions taken in response to the campaign. Adolescents in the national evaluation study also answered questions assessing knowledge of health effects of smoking, impact of the campaign on adolescents, and relevance of the campaign for adolescents and other groups. Responses for smokers and nonsmokers were examined. Among the national evaluation sample, 85% of adolescent smokers thought the campaign was relevant to them. Fifty three per cent indicated that the campaign had led some teenagers to at least try to quit and 85% thought it made smoking seem less cool and desirable. Among students who were established smokers the campaign generated quitting activity, with 27% cutting down the number of cigarettes they smoked and 26% having thought about quitting. Results indicate that adolescents were very aware of this adult focused anti-smoking campaign and thought it relevant to them. The findings suggest that a graphic health effects cessation focused campaign may have been successful in promoting anti-smoking attitudes among adolescents.

Do physician outcome judgments and judgment biases contribute to inappropriate use of treatments? Study protocol

PubMed Central

Brehaut, Jamie C; Poses, Roy; Shojania, Kaveh G; Lott, Alison; Man-Son-Hing, Malcolm; Bassin, Elise; Grimshaw, Jeremy

2007-01-01

Background There are many examples of physicians using treatments inappropriately, despite clear evidence about the circumstances under which the benefits of such treatments outweigh their harms. When such over- or under- use of treatments occurs for common diseases, the burden to the healthcare system and risks to patients can be substantial. We propose that a major contributor to inappropriate treatment may be how clinicians judge the likelihood of important treatment outcomes, and how these judgments influence their treatment decisions. The current study will examine the role of judged outcome probabilities and other cognitive factors in the context of two clinical treatment decisions: 1) prescription of antibiotics for sore throat, where we hypothesize overestimation of benefit and underestimation of harm leads to over-prescription of antibiotics; and 2) initiation of anticoagulation for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), where we hypothesize that underestimation of benefit and overestimation of harm leads to under-prescription of warfarin. Methods For each of the two conditions, we will administer surveys of two types (Type 1 and Type 2) to different samples of Canadian physicians. The primary goal of the Type 1 survey is to assess physicians' perceived outcome probabilities (both good and bad outcomes) for the target treatment. Type 1 surveys will assess judged outcome probabilities in the context of a representative patient, and include questions about how physicians currently treat such cases, the recollection of rare or vivid outcomes, as well as practice and demographic details. The primary goal of the Type 2 surveys is to measure the specific factors that drive individual clinical judgments and treatment decisions, using a 'clinical judgment analysis' or 'lens modeling' approach. This survey will manipulate eight clinical variables across a series of sixteen realistic case vignettes. Based on the survey responses, we will be able to identify which variables have the greatest effect on physician judgments, and whether judgments are affected by inappropriate cues or incorrect weighting of appropriate cues. We will send antibiotics surveys to family physicians (300 per survey), and warfarin surveys to both family physicians and internal medicine specialists (300 per group per survey), for a total of 1,800 physicians. Each Type 1 survey will be two to four pages in length and take about fifteen minutes to complete, while each Type 2 survey will be eight to ten pages in length and take about thirty minutes to complete. Discussion This work will provide insight into the extent to which clinicians' judgments about the likelihood of important treatment outcomes explain inappropriate treatment decisions. This work will also provide information necessary for the development of an individualized feedback tool designed to improve treatment decisions. The techniques developed here have the potential to be applicable to a wide range of clinical areas where inappropriate utilization stems from biased judgments. PMID:17555586

Limnological Conditions in Lake William C. Bowen and Municipal Reservoir #1, Spartanburg County, South Carolina, August to September 2005, May 2006, and October 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Journey, Celeste A.; Abrahamsen, Thomas A.

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Spartanburg Water System, conducted three spatial surveys of the limnological conditions in Lake William C. Bowen (Lake Bowen) and Municipal Reservoir #1 (Reservoir #1), Spartanburg County, South Carolina, during August to September 2005, May 2006, and October 2006. The surveys were conducted to identify spatial distribution and concentrations of geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol, common trophic state indicators (nutrients, transparency, and chlorophyll a), algal community structure, and stratification of the water column at the time of sampling. Screening tools such as the Carlson trophic state index, total nitrogen to total phosphorus ratios, and relative thermal resistance to mixing were used to help compare data among sites and among seasons. Water-column samples were collected at two depths at each selected site: a near-surface sample collected above a 1-meter depth and a lake-bottom sample collected at a depth of 2.5 to 7 meters, depending on the depth at the site. The degree of stratification of the water column was demonstrated by temperature-depth profiles and computed relative thermal resistance to mixing. Seasonal occurrence of thermal stratification (August to September 2005; May 2006) and de-stratification (October 2006) was evident in the depth profiles of water temperature in Lake Bowen. The most stable water-column (highest relative thermal resistance to mixing) conditions occurred in Lake Bowen during the August to September 2005 survey. The least stable water-column (destratified) conditions occurred in Lake Bowen during the October 2006 survey and Reservoir #1 during all three surveys. Changes with depth in dissolved oxygen (decreased with depth to near anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion), pH (decreased with depth), and specific conductance (increased with depth) along with thermal stratification indicated Lake Bowen was exhibiting characteristics common to both mesotrophic and eutrophic conditions. Nutrient dynamics were different in Lake Bowen during the May 2006 survey from those during the August to September 2005 and October 2006 surveys. Total organic nitrogen concentrations (total Kjeldahl nitrogen minus ammonia) remained relatively constant within the surveys and ranged from 0.15 to 0.36 milligram per liter during the period of study. Nitrate was the dominant inorganic species of nitrogen during May 2006. Ammonia was the dominant species during the August to September 2005 and October 2006 surveys. During the August and September 2005 survey, ammonia was detected only in bottom samples collected in the near anoxic hypolimnion, but during the October 2006 survey, ammonia was detected under destratified conditions in surface and bottom samples. In Lake Bowen, total phosphorus concentrations in bottom samples did not exhibit the dramatic, high values during the May 2006 and October 2006 surveys (0.009 to 0.014 milligram per liter) that were identified for the August to September 2005 survey (0.022 to 0.034 milligram per liter). Chlorophyll a concentrations appeared to vary with the species of inorganic nitrogen. Greater chlorophyll a concentrations were identified in samples from the May 2006 survey (6.8 to 15 micrograms per liter) than in the August to September 2005 (1.2 to 6.4 micrograms per liter) and October surveys (5.6 to 8.2 micrograms per liter) at all sites in Lake Bowen and Reservoir #1. For the three limnological surveys, surface concentrations of chlorophyll a and total phosphorus were well below established numerical criteria for South Carolina. In general, the computed trophic state indices indicated that mesotrophic conditions were present in Lake Bowen and Reservoir #1. The total nitrogen to total phosphorus ratios in Lake Bowen and Reservoir #1 were below 22:1 for the August to September 2005 survey, indicating a high probability of dominance by nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. Ratios during the May and October 2006 surveys at

Utilization of infertility services: how much does money matter?

PubMed

Farley Ordovensky Staniec, J; Webb, Natalie J

2007-06-01

To estimate the effects of financial access and other individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment and the choice of treatment type. The 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We use a binomial logit model to estimate the effects of financial access and individual characteristics on the likelihood that a woman pursues infertility treatment. We then use a multinomial logit model to estimate the differential effects of these variables across treatment types. This study analyzes the subset of 1,210 women who meet the definition of infertile or subfecund from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that income, insurance coverage, age, and parity (number of previous births) all significantly affect the probability of seeking infertility treatment; however, the effect of these variables on choice of treatment type varies significantly. Neither income nor insurance influences the probability of seeking advice, a relatively low cost, low yield treatment. At the other end of the spectrum, the choice to pursue assisted reproductive technologies (ARTs)-a much more expensive but potentially more productive option-is highly influenced by income, but merely having private insurance has no significant effect. In the middle of the spectrum are treatment options such as testing, surgery, and medications, for which "financial access" increases their probability of selection. Our results illustrate that for the sample of infertile of subfecund women of childbearing age studied, and considering their options, financial access to infertility treatment does matter.

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

2012-01-01

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

How are social capital and sense of coherence associated with hazardous alcohol use? Findings from a large population-based Swedish sample of adults.

PubMed

Larm, Peter; Åslund, Cecilia; Starrin, Bengt; Nilsson, K W

2016-07-01

This study examined whether social capital and a sense of coherence are associated with hazardous alcohol use in a large population-based Swedish sample. In particular, the objectives were (a) to examine which of five subdimensions of social capital is associated with hazardous alcohol use, (b) to investigate the moderating role of sense of coherence and (c) to examine possible sex differences. A postal survey was distributed to a sample of respondents (aged 18-84 years) from five Swedish counties that was stratified by sex, age and city; 40,674 (59.2%) participants responded, of which 45.5% were men and 54.5% were women with a mean±SD age of 53.8±17.9 years. Structural dimensions of social capital were associated with an increased probability of hazardous alcohol use among both men and women, whereas the increased probability associated with cognitive dimensions occurred mostly among women. Sense of coherence was robustly associated with a decreased probability of hazardous alcohol use among both men and women. There were few moderating effects of sense of coherence and sex differences emerged mainly for the cognitive dimension of social capital. CONCLUSIONS ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN SOCIAL CAPITAL DIMENSIONS AND HAZARDOUS ALCOHOL USE WERE PARTLY SEX-SPECIFIC, WHEREAS THE BENEFITS OF A SENSE OF COHERENCE ACCRUED TO BOTH SEXES SOCIAL CAPITAL DIMENSIONS AND SENSE OF COHERENCE WERE GENERALLY UNRELATED TO EACH OTHER ONLY ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN THE COGNITIVE DIMENSIONS OF SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HAZARDOUS ALCOHOL USE DIFFERED BY SEX. © 2016 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Comparative analysis of old-age mortality estimations in Africa.

PubMed

Bendavid, Eran; Seligman, Benjamin; Kubo, Jessica

2011-01-01

Survival to old ages is increasing in many African countries. While demographic tools for estimating mortality up to age 60 have improved greatly, mortality patterns above age 60 rely on models based on little or no demographic data. These estimates are important for social planning and demographic projections. We provide direct estimations of older-age mortality using survey data. Since 2005, nationally representative household surveys in ten sub-Saharan countries record counts of living and recently deceased household members: Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Namibia, Nigeria, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. After accounting for age heaping using multiple imputation, we use this information to estimate probability of death in 5-year intervals ((5)q(x)). We then compare our (5)q(x) estimates to those provided by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) to estimate the differences in mortality estimates, especially among individuals older than 60 years old. We obtained information on 505,827 individuals (18.4% over age 60, 1.64% deceased). WHO and UNPD mortality models match our estimates closely up to age 60 (mean difference in probability of death -1.1%). However, mortality probabilities above age 60 are lower using our estimations than either WHO or UNPD. The mean difference between our sample and the WHO is 5.9% (95% CI 3.8-7.9%) and between our sample is UNPD is 13.5% (95% CI 11.6-15.5%). Regardless of the comparator, the difference in mortality estimations rises monotonically above age 60. Mortality estimations above age 60 in ten African countries exhibit large variations depending on the method of estimation. The observed patterns suggest the possibility that survival in some African countries among adults older than age 60 is better than previously thought. Improving the quality and coverage of vital information in developing countries will become increasingly important with future reductions in mortality.

National prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder among sexually revictimized adolescent, college, and adult household-residing women.

PubMed

Walsh, Kate; Danielson, Carla Kmett; McCauley, Jenna L; Saunders, Benjamin E; Kilpatrick, Dean G; Resnick, Heidi S

2012-09-01

Despite empirical links between sexual revictimization (ie, experiencing 2 or more sexual assaults) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), to our knowledge, no epidemiological studies document the prevalence of sexual revictimization and PTSD. Establishing estimates is essential to determine the scope, public health impact, and psychiatric sequelae of sexual revictimization. To estimate the prevalence of sexual revictimization and PTSD among 3 national female samples (adolescent, college, and adult household probability). Surveys were used to collect data from the National Women's Study-Replication (2006; college) as well as household probability samples from the National Survey of Adolescents-Replication (2005) and the National Women's Study-Replication (2006; household probability). Households and college campuses across the United States. One thousand seven hundred sixty-three adolescent girls, 2000 college women, and 3001 household-residing adult women. Behaviorally specific questions assessed unwanted sexual acts occurring over the life span owing to the use of force, threat of force, or incapacitation via drug or alcohol use. Posttraumatic stress disorder was assessed with a module validated against the criterion standard Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. About 53% of victimized adolescents, 50% of victimized college women, and 58.8% of victimized household-residing women reported sexual revictimization. Current PTSD was reported by 20% of revictimized adolescents, 40% of revictimized college women, and 27.2% of revictimized household-residing women. Compared with nonvictims, odds of meeting past 6-month PTSD were 4.3 to 8.2 times higher for revictimized respondents and 2.4 to 3.5 times higher for single victims. Population prevalence estimates suggest that 769 000 adolescent girls, 625 000 college women, and 13.4 million women in US households reported sexual revictimization. Further, 154 000 sexually revictimized adolescents, 250 000 sexually revictimized college women, and 3.6 million sexually revictimized household women met criteria for past 6-month PTSD. Findings highlight the importance of screening for sexual revictimization and PTSD in pediatric, college, and primary care settings.

Sexual behaviors, relationships, and perceived health among adult men in the United States: results from a national probability sample.

PubMed

Reece, Michael; Herbenick, Debby; Schick, Vanessa; Sanders, Stephanie A; Dodge, Brian; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2010-10-01

To provide a foundation for those who provide sexual health services and programs to men in the United States, the need for population-based data that describes men's sexual behaviors and their correlates remains. The purpose of this study was to, in a national probability survey of men ages 18-94 years, assess the occurrence and frequency of sexual behaviors and their associations with relationship status and health status. A national probability sample of 2,522 men aged 18 to 94 completed a cross-sectional survey about their sexual behaviors, relationship status, and health. Relationship status; health status; experience of solo masturbation, partnered masturbation, giving oral sex, receiving oral sex, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse, in the past 90 days; frequency of solo masturbation, vaginal intercourse and anal intercourse in the past year. Masturbation, oral intercourse, and vaginal intercourse are prevalent among men throughout most of their adult life, with both occurrence and frequency varying with age and as functions of relationship type and physical health status. Masturbation is prevalent and frequent across various stages of life and for both those with and without a relational partner, with fewer men with fair to poor health reporting recent masturbation. Patterns of giving oral sex to a female partner were similar to those for receiving oral sex. Vaginal intercourse in the past 90 days was more prevalent among men in their late 20s and 30s than in the other age groups, although being reported by approximately 50% of men in the sixth and seventh decades of life. Anal intercourse and sexual interactions with other men were less common than all other sexual behaviors. Contemporary men in the United States engage in diverse solo and partnered sexual activities; however, sexual behavior is less common and more infrequent among older age cohorts. © 2010 International Society for Sexual Medicine.

Multinomial logistic regression in workers' health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grilo, Luís M.; Grilo, Helena L.; Gonçalves, Sónia P.; Junça, Ana

2017-11-01

In European countries, namely in Portugal, it is common to hear some people mentioning that they are exposed to excessive and continuous psychosocial stressors at work. This is increasing in diverse activity sectors, such as, the Services sector. A representative sample was collected from a Portuguese Services' organization, by applying a survey (internationally validated), which variables were measured in five ordered categories in Likert-type scale. A multinomial logistic regression model is used to estimate the probability of each category of the dependent variable general health perception where, among other independent variables, burnout appear as statistically significant.

Practices around the use of masks and respirators among hospital health care workers in 3 diverse populations.

PubMed

Chughtai, Abrar Ahmad; MacIntyre, C Raina; Ashraf, Muhammad Orooj; Zheng, Yang; Yang, Peng; Wang, Quanyi; Dung, Tham Chi; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Seale, Holly

2015-10-01

A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 89 secondary- and tertiary-level hospitals in 3 countries, and samples of masks and respirators were also collected and examined. Results showed varied practices around the use of masks and respirators, which are probably influenced by the available resources and local recommendations. Nonstandardized practices are common in low-resource settings, which may be placing health care workers at risk. Copyright © 2015 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

BENTON RANGE ROADLESS AREA, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Edwin H.; Rains, Richard L.

1984-01-01

On the basis of a mineral survey, two parts of the Benton Range Roadless Area, California are considered to have mineral-resource potential. The central and southern part of the roadless area, near several nonoperating mines, has a probable potential for tungsten and gold-silver mineralization in tactite zones. The central part of the area has a substantiated resource potential for gold and silver in quartz veins. Detailed mapping and geochemical sampling for tungsten, gold, and silver in the central and southern part of the roadless area might indicate targets for shallow drilling exploration.

BLANCO MOUNTAIN AND BLACK CANYON ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diggles, Michael F.; Rains, Richard L.

1984-01-01

The mineral survey of the Blanco Mountain and Black Canyon Roadless Areas, California indicated that areas of probable and substantiated mineral-resource potential exist only in the Black Canyon Roadless Area. Gold with moderate amounts of lead, silver, zinc, and tungsten, occurs in vein deposits and in tactite. The nature of the geological terrain indicates little likelihood for the occurrence of energy resources in the roadless areas. Detailed geologic mapping might better define the extent of gold mineralization. Detailed stream-sediment sampling and analysis of heavy-mineral concentrations could better define tungsten resource potential.

Resisting rape: the effects of victim self-protection on rape completion and injury.

PubMed

Tark, Jongyeon; Kleck, Gary

2014-03-01

The impact of victim resistance on rape completion and injury was examined utilizing a large probability sample of sexual assault incidents, derived from the National Crime Victimization Survey (1992-2002), and taking into account whether harm to the victim followed or preceded self-protection (SP) actions. Additional injuries besides rape, particularly serious injuries, following victim resistance are rare. Results indicate that most SP actions, both forceful and nonforceful, reduce the risk of rape completion, and do not significantly affect the risk of additional injury.

The role of parental education in child disability in China from 1987 to 2006.

PubMed

He, Ping; Chen, Gong; Wang, Zhenjie; Guo, Chao; Zheng, Xiaoying

2017-01-01

This paper aimed to investigate the role of parental education in child disability in China. We used nationally representative data from China's National Sample Survey on Disability, iterated twice, in 1987 and 2006, with data of 764,718 children aged 0-14 years. Logit models were used for statistical analysis. Results showed that the prevalence of child disability was significantly associated with each parent's education. Maternal education was more important than paternal education in child disability in both surveys. The analysis of marginal effect indicated a one-year increase in maternal and paternal schooling led to an average decrease of 0.121% and 0.091% in the probability of child disability in 1987, and 19 years later, these figures had dwindled to 0.091% and 0.072%, respectively.

Making a Difference in Science Education: The Impact of Undergraduate Research Programs

PubMed Central

Eagan, M. Kevin; Hurtado, Sylvia; Chang, Mitchell J.; Garcia, Gina A.; Herrera, Felisha A.; Garibay, Juan C.

2014-01-01

To increase the numbers of underrepresented racial minority students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), federal and private agencies have allocated significant funding to undergraduate research programs, which have been shown to students’ intentions of enrolling in graduate or professional school. Analyzing a longitudinal sample of 4,152 aspiring STEM majors who completed the 2004 Freshman Survey and 2008 College Senior Survey, this study utilizes multinomial hierarchical generalized linear modeling (HGLM) and propensity score matching techniques to examine how participation in undergraduate research affects STEM students’ intentions to enroll in STEM and non-STEM graduate and professional programs. Findings indicate that participation in an undergraduate research program significantly improved students’ probability of indicating plans to enroll in a STEM graduate program. PMID:25190821

Chemical data and variation diagrams of igneous rocks from the Timber Mountain-Oasis Valley Caldera Complex, southern Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quinlivan, W.D.; Byers, F.M.

1977-01-01

Silica variation diagrams presented here are based on 162 chemical analyses of tuffs, lavas, and intrusives, representative of volcanic centers of the Timber Mountain-Oasis Valley caldera complex and cogenetic rocks of the Silent Canyon ca1dera. Most of the volcanic units sampled are shown on the U.S. Geological Survey geologic map of the Timber Mountain caldera area (I-891) and are described in U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 919. Early effusives of the complex, although slightly altered, are probably chemically, and petrographically, more like the calc-alkalic Fraction Tuff (Miocene) of the northern Nellis Air Force Base Bombing and Gunnery Range to the north, whereas effusives of later Miocene age, such as the Paintbrush and Timber Mountain Tuffs, are alkali-calcic.

Geographic analysis of species richness and community attributes of forest birds from survey data in the mid-Atlantic integrated assessment region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cam, E.; Sauer, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Flather, C.H.

2000-01-01

Species richness of local communities is a state variable commonly used in community ecology and conservation biology. Investigation of spatial and temporal variations in richness and identification of factors associated with these variations form a basis for specifying management plans, evaluating these plans, and for testing hypotheses of theoretical interest. However, estimation of species richness is not trivial: species can be missed by investigators during sampling sessions. Sampling artifacts can lead to erroneous conclusions on spatial and temporal variation in species richness. Here we use data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to estimate parameters describing the state of bird communities in the Mid-Atlantic Assessment (MAIA) region: species richness, extinction probability, turnover and relative species richness. We use a recently developed approach to estimation of species richness and related parameters that does not require the assumption that all the species are detected during sampling efforts. The information presented here is intended to visualize the state of bird communities in the MAIA region. We provide information on 1975 and 1990. We also quantified the changes between these years. We summarized and mapped the community attributes at a scale of management interest (watershed units).

Optical and radio properties of X-ray selected BL Lacertae objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stocke, J. T.; Liebert, J.; Schmidt, G.; Gioia, I. M.; Maccacaro, T.

1985-01-01

The eight BL Lac objects from the HEAO 1 A-2 all-sky survey and from the Einstein medium-sensitivity survey (MSS) form a flux-limited complete X-ray selected sample. The optical and radio properties of the MSS BL Lac objects are presented and compared with those of the HEAO 1 A-2 sample and with those of radio-selected BL Lac objects. The X-ray selected BL Lac objects possess smaller polarized fractions and less violent optical variability than radio-selected BL Lac objects. These properties are consistent with the substantial starlight fraction seen in the optical spectra of a majority of these objects. This starlight allows a determination of definite redshifts for two of four MSS BL Lac objects and a probable redshift for a third. These redshifts are 0.2, 0.3, and 0.6. Despite the differences in characteristics between the X-ray selected and radio-selected samples, it is concluded that these eight objects possess most of the basic qualities of BL Lac objects and should be considered members of that class. Moreover, as a class, these X-ray selected objects have the largest ratio of X-ray to optical flux of any active galactic nuclei yet discovered.

Gender Expression, Violence, and Bullying Victimization: Findings From Probability Samples of High School Students in 4 US School Districts.

PubMed

Gordon, Allegra R; Conron, Kerith J; Calzo, Jerel P; White, Matthew T; Reisner, Sari L; Austin, S Bryn

2018-04-01

Young people may experience school-based violence and bullying victimization related to their gender expression, independent of sexual orientation identity. However, the associations between gender expression and bullying and violence have not been examined in racially and ethnically diverse population-based samples of high school students. This study includes 5469 students (13-18 years) from the 2013 Youth Risk Behavior Surveys conducted in 4 urban school districts. Respondents were 51% Hispanic/Latino, 21% black/African American, 14% white. Generalized additive models were used to examine the functional form of relationships between self-reported gender expression (range: 1 = Most gender conforming, 7 = Most gender nonconforming) and 5 indicators of violence and bullying victimization. We estimated predicted probabilities across gender expression by sex, adjusting for sexual orientation identity and potential confounders. Statistically significant quadratic associations indicated that girls and boys at the most gender conforming and nonconforming ends of the scale had elevated probabilities of fighting and fighting-related injury, compared to those in the middle of the scale (p < .05). There was a significant linear relationship between gender expression and bullying victimization; every unit increase in gender nonconformity was associated with 15% greater odds of experiencing bullying (p < .0001). School-based victimization is associated with conformity and nonconformity to gender norms. School violence prevention programs should include gender diversity education. © 2018, American School Health Association.

Estimating occurrence and detection probabilities for stream-breeding salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamb, Jennifer Y.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Qualls, Carl P.

2017-01-01

Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the ecology of stream-breeding plethodontid salamanders in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Data describing where these salamanders are likely to occur along environmental gradients, as well as their likelihood of detection, are important for the prevention and management of amphibian declines. We used presence/absence data from leaf litter bag surveys and a hierarchical Bayesian multispecies single-season occupancy model to estimate the occurrence of five species of plethodontids across reaches in headwater streams in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Average detection probabilities were high (range = 0.432–0.942) and unaffected by sampling covariates specific to the use of litter bags (i.e., bag submergence, sampling season, in-stream cover). Estimates of occurrence probabilities differed substantially between species (range = 0.092–0.703) and were influenced by the size of the upstream drainage area and by the maximum proportion of the reach that dried. The effects of these two factors were not equivalent across species. Our results demonstrate that hierarchical multispecies models successfully estimate occurrence parameters for both rare and common stream-breeding plethodontids. The resulting models clarify how species are distributed within stream networks, and they provide baseline values that will be useful in evaluating the conservation statuses of plethodontid species within lotic systems in the Gulf Coastal Plain.

The XMM-Newton bright serendipitous survey. Identification and optical spectral properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caccianiga, A.; Severgnini, P.; Della Ceca, R.; Maccacaro, T.; Cocchia, F.; Barcons, X.; Carrera, F. J.; Matute, I.; McMahon, R. G.; Page, M. J.; Pietsch, W.; Sbarufatti, B.; Schwope, A.; Tedds, J. A.; Watson, M. G.

2008-01-01

Aims:We present the optical classification and redshift of 348 X-ray selected sources from the XMM-Newton Bright Serendipitous Survey (XBS), which contains a total of 400 objects (identification level = 87%). About 240 are new identifications. In particular, we discuss in detail the classification criteria adopted for the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) population. Methods: By means of systematic spectroscopic campaigns using various telescopes and through the literature search, we have collected an optical spectrum for the large majority of the sources in the XBS survey and applied a well-defined classification “flow chart”. Results: We find that the AGNs represent the most numerous population at the flux limit of the XBS survey (~10-13 erg cm-2 s-1) constituting 80% of the XBS sources selected in the 0.5-4.5 keV energy band and 95% of the “hard” (4.5-7.5 keV) selected objects. Galactic sources populate the 0.5-4.5 keV sample significantly (17%) and only marginally (3%) the 4.5-7.5 keV sample. The remaining sources in both samples are clusters/groups of galaxies and normal galaxies (i.e. probably not powered by an AGN). Furthermore, the percentage of type 2 AGNs (i.e. optically absorbed AGNs with A_V>2 mag) dramatically increases going from the 0.5-4.5 keV sample (f=NAGN 2/N_AGN=7%) to the 4.5-7.5 keV sample (f=32%). We finally propose two simple diagnostic plots that can be easily used to obtain the spectral classification for relatively low-redshift AGNs even if the quality of the spectrum is not good. Based on observations collected at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo (TNG) and at the European Southern Observatory (ESO) and on observations obtained with XMM-Newton, an ESA science mission with instruments and contributions directly funded by ESA Member States and the USA (NASA). Table 3 is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Pacific island landbird monitoring annual report, National Park of American Samoa, Ta‘u and Tutuila units, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Judge, Seth W.; Camp, Richard J.; Vaivai, Visa; Hart, Patrick J.

2013-01-01

NPSA canopy and understory composition was predominantly native, and trees formed a dense closed canopy at nearly 90% of the stations sampled. More than half of the tree heights in both units were taller than 5 m and the majority of slopes were steeper than 20 degrees. There were no clear dominant tree species in the mixed native forests. The most common tree species documented included Syzygium spp., Dysoxylum spp., Ficus spp., Hibiscus tiliaceus and Rhus taitensis (among others). There were significant differences in the distribution of bird densities between legacy and random transects. Determining differences in detection probabilities cannot be definitively assessed from a single survey. We recommend both panels be sampled in the future until bias in density and abundance can be evaluated, or if sampling may be reduced.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Pleiades members stellar properties (Somers+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somers, G.; Stassun, K. G.

2018-04-01

We began with the newly assembled catalog of literature lithium measurements reported by Barrado et al. (2016, J/A+A/596/A113), who accepted only stars with membership probability >0.75. A small number of Pleiads lie behind an HI cloud, and are thus far more extincted than the rest (e.g., Gordon & Arny 1984AJ.....89..672G); for simplicity, we discard these members. We then cross-correlated this sample with the famous UBV photometric catalog of Johnson & Mitchell (1958ApJ...128...31J), who produced homogeneous photometry for a large sample of Pleiades members. We further selected stars with measured rotation rates, either from the HATNet collaboration (Hartman et al. 2010, J/MNRAS/408/475), or the recent analysis of K2 data (Rebull et al. 2016, J/AJ/152/113, J/AJ/152/114; Stauffer et al. 2016, J/AJ/152/115), preferring the latter for joint detections. Finally, we queried VizieR (http://vizier.u-strasbg.fr/) to obtain KS-band magnitudes from the Two-Micron All-Sky Survey (2MASS) catalog (Skrutskie et al. 2006, Cat. VII/233), which detected every star in our reduced sample. These criteria produced a total of 83 high-probability cluster members, stretching from early-F to late-K type. (3 data files).

The performance of sample selection estimators to control for attrition bias.

PubMed

Grasdal, A

2001-07-01

Sample attrition is a potential source of selection bias in experimental, as well as non-experimental programme evaluation. For labour market outcomes, such as employment status and earnings, missing data problems caused by attrition can be circumvented by the collection of follow-up data from administrative registers. For most non-labour market outcomes, however, investigators must rely on participants' willingness to co-operate in keeping detailed follow-up records and statistical correction procedures to identify and adjust for attrition bias. This paper combines survey and register data from a Norwegian randomized field trial to evaluate the performance of parametric and semi-parametric sample selection estimators commonly used to correct for attrition bias. The considered estimators work well in terms of producing point estimates of treatment effects close to the experimental benchmark estimates. Results are sensitive to exclusion restrictions. The analysis also demonstrates an inherent paradox in the 'common support' approach, which prescribes exclusion from the analysis of observations outside of common support for the selection probability. The more important treatment status is as a determinant of attrition, the larger is the proportion of treated with support for the selection probability outside the range, for which comparison with untreated counterparts is possible. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A distortion of very-high-redshift galaxy number counts by gravitational lensing.

PubMed

Wyithe, J Stuart B; Yan, Haojing; Windhorst, Rogier A; Mao, Shude

2011-01-13

The observed number counts of high-redshift galaxy candidates have been used to build up a statistical description of star-forming activity at redshift z ≳ 7, when galaxies reionized the Universe. Standard models predict that a high incidence of gravitational lensing will probably distort measurements of flux and number of these earliest galaxies. The raw probability of this happening has been estimated to be ∼0.5 per cent (refs 11, 12), but can be larger owing to observational biases. Here we report that gravitational lensing is likely to dominate the observed properties of galaxies with redshifts of z ≳ 12, when the instrumental limiting magnitude is expected to be brighter than the characteristic magnitude of the galaxy sample. The number counts could be modified by an order of magnitude, with most galaxies being part of multiply imaged systems, located less than 1 arcsec from brighter foreground galaxies at z ≈ 2. This lens-induced association of high-redshift and foreground galaxies has perhaps already been observed among a sample of galaxy candidates identified at z ≈ 10.6. Future surveys will need to be designed to account for a significant gravitational lensing bias in high-redshift galaxy samples.

A Submillimeter Continuum Survey of Local Dust-obscured Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jong Chul; Hwang, Ho Seong; Lee, Gwang-Ho

2016-12-01

We conduct a 350 μm dust continuum emission survey of 17 dust-obscured galaxies (DOGs) at z = 0.05-0.08 with the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory (CSO). We detect 14 DOGs with S 350 μm = 114-650 mJy and signal-to-noise > 3. By including two additional DOGs with submillimeter data in the literature, we are able to study dust content for a sample of 16 local DOGs, which consist of 12 bump and four power-law types. We determine their physical parameters with a two-component modified blackbody function model. The derived dust temperatures are in the range 57-122 K and 22-35 K for the warm and cold dust components, respectively. The total dust mass and the mass fraction of the warm dust component are 3-34 × 107 M ⊙ and 0.03%-2.52%, respectively. We compare these results with those of other submillimeter-detected infrared luminous galaxies. The bump DOGs, the majority of the DOG sample, show similar distributions of dust temperatures and total dust mass to the comparison sample. The power-law DOGs show a hint of smaller dust masses than other samples, but need to be tested with a larger sample. These findings support that the reason DOGs show heavy dust obscuration is not an overall amount of dust content, but probably the spatial distribution of dust therein.

Analyses of Mineral Content and Heavy Metal of Honey Samples from South and East Region of Turkey by Using ICP-MS.

PubMed

Kılıç Altun, Serap; Dinç, Hikmet; Paksoy, Nilgün; Temamoğulları, Füsun Karaçal; Savrunlu, Mehmet

2017-01-01

The substantial of mineral ingredients in honey may symbolize the existence of elements in the plants and soil of the vicinity wherein the honey was taken. The aim of this study was to detect the levels of 13 elements (Potassium (K), Sodium (Na), Calcium (Ca), Iron (Fe), Zinc (Zn), Cadmium (Cd), Copper (Cu), Manganese (Mn), Lead (Pb), Nickel (Ni), Chromium (Cr), Aluminum (Al), and Selenium (Se)) in unifloral and multifloral honey samples from south and east regions of Turkey. Survey of 71 honey samples from seven different herbal origins, picked up from the south and east region of Turkey, was carried out to determine their mineral contents during 2015-2016. The mineral contents were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The most abundant minerals were K, Na, and Ca ranging within 1.18-268 ppm, 0.57-13.1 ppm, and 0.77-4.5 ppm, respectively. Zn and Cu were the most abundant trace element while Pb, Cd, Ni, and Cr were the lowest heavy metals in the honey samples surveyed, with regard to the concentrations of heavy metals such as Zn, Cu, Pb, Cd, Ni, and Cr suggested and influence of the botanical origin of element composition. Geochemical and geographical differences are probably related to the variations of the chemical components of honey samples.

Reconnaissance Strategy for Seep Chemosynthetic Communities in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, I. R.; Roberts, H. H.; Fisher, C. R.; Bernard, B. B.; Joye, S.; Carney, R.; Hunt, J.; Shedd, W.

2007-05-01

The Continental Slope of the Gulf of Mexico hosts diverse chemosynthetic communities at oil and gas seeps. Exploration is needed to extend knowledge of the Gulf of Mexico chemosynthetic ecosystem in the zones anticipated to receive energy exploration and production activities over the coming decades. A nested survey approach can be used to identify representative sampling sites within this vast offshore area. Potential sites where chemosynthetic community could occur are selected on the basis geophysical, geochemical, and satellite remote-sensing indicators. Photo-reconnaissance using cost-effective camera systems is then used to confirm the presences or absence of chemosynthetic communities at high-probability sites. Follow-up sampling can then proceed with submersibles or ROVs to acquire tissue and or geochemical samples. However, because access is limited, submersible dives may not be possible at all sites. Two examples of this approach have recently been applied in the northern and southern Gulf of Mexico, respectively. We compared community characterizations obtained from the initial reconnaissance with more detailed characterizations forthcoming from submersible sampling. Our results show that major differences in community type and geochemical substrata are evident from preliminary reconnaissance, while details of animal densities and species compositions require targeted sampling with submersibles. However, given the limited access to submersibles, cost-effective surveys with deep-sea camera systems would greatly expand understanding of the zoogeography of chemosynthetic fauna in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

2011-01-01

In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

The Spitzer search for the transits of HARPS low-mass planets. II. Null results for 19 planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillon, M.; Demory, B.-O.; Lovis, C.; Deming, D.; Ehrenreich, D.; Lo Curto, G.; Mayor, M.; Pepe, F.; Queloz, D.; Seager, S.; Ségransan, D.; Udry, S.

2017-05-01

Short-period super-Earths and Neptunes are now known to be very frequent around solar-type stars. Improving our understanding of these mysterious planets requires the detection of a significant sample of objects suitable for detailed characterization. Searching for the transits of the low-mass planets detected by Doppler surveys is a straightforward way to achieve this goal. Indeed, Doppler surveys target the most nearby main-sequence stars, they regularly detect close-in low-mass planets with significant transit probability, and their radial velocity data constrain strongly the ephemeris of possible transits. In this context, we initiated in 2010 an ambitious Spitzer multi-Cycle transit search project that targeted 25 low-mass planets detected by radial velocity, focusing mainly on the shortest-period planets detected by the HARPS spectrograph. We report here null results for 19 targets of the project. For 16 planets out of 19, a transiting configuration is strongly disfavored or firmly rejected by our data for most planetary compositions. We derive a posterior probability of 83% that none of the probed 19 planets transits (for a prior probability of 22%), which still leaves a significant probability of 17% that at least one of them does transit. Globally, our Spitzer project revealed or confirmed transits for three of its 25 targeted planets, and discarded or disfavored the transiting nature of 20 of them. Our light curves demonstrate for Warm Spitzer excellent photometric precisions: for 14 targets out of 19, we were able to reach standard deviations that were better than 50 ppm per 30 min intervals. Combined with its Earth-trailing orbit, which makes it capable of pointing any star in the sky and to monitor it continuously for days, this work confirms Spitzer as an optimal instrument to detect sub-mmag-deep transits on the bright nearby stars targeted by Doppler surveys. The photometric and radial velocity time series used in this work are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/601/A117

Sampling Methods in Cardiovascular Nursing Research: An Overview.

PubMed

Kandola, Damanpreet; Banner, Davina; O'Keefe-McCarthy, Sheila; Jassal, Debbie

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular nursing research covers a wide array of topics from health services to psychosocial patient experiences. The selection of specific participant samples is an important part of the research design and process. The sampling strategy employed is of utmost importance to ensure that a representative sample of participants is chosen. There are two main categories of sampling methods: probability and non-probability. Probability sampling is the random selection of elements from the population, where each element of the population has an equal and independent chance of being included in the sample. There are five main types of probability sampling including simple random sampling, systematic sampling, stratified sampling, cluster sampling, and multi-stage sampling. Non-probability sampling methods are those in which elements are chosen through non-random methods for inclusion into the research study and include convenience sampling, purposive sampling, and snowball sampling. Each approach offers distinct advantages and disadvantages and must be considered critically. In this research column, we provide an introduction to these key sampling techniques and draw on examples from the cardiovascular research. Understanding the differences in sampling techniques may aid nurses in effective appraisal of research literature and provide a reference pointfor nurses who engage in cardiovascular research.

Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the chemistry of bottom sediments in Lake Pontchartrain, La.: Chapter 7F in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, Peter C.; Horowitz, Arthur J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Foreman, William T.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Burkhardt, Mark R.; Elrick, Kent A.; Furlong, Edward T.; Skrobialowski, Stanley C.; Smith, James J.; Wilson, Jennifer T.; Zaugg, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Concerns about the effect of pumping contaminated flood waters into Lake Pontchartrain following the hurricanes of 2005 prompted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to sample street mud, canal-suspended sediment, and bottom sediment in Lake Pontchartain. The samples were analyzed for a wide variety of potential inorganic and organic contaminants. Results indicate that contamination of lake sediment relative to other urban lakes and to accepted sedimentquality guidelines was limited to a relatively small area offshore from the Metairie Outfall Canal (popularly known as the 17th Street Canal) and that this contamination is probably transient.

Using spatiotemporal models and distance sampling to map the space use and abundance of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan D.; Samora, Barbara; Adams, Michael J.; McCreary, Brome

2011-01-01

High variability in abundance, cryptic coloration, and small body size of newly metamorphosed anurans have limited demographic studies of this life-history stage. We used line-transect distance sampling and Bayesian methods to estimate the abundance and spatial distribution of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) in terrestrial habitat surrounding a montane lake in central Washington, USA. We completed 154 line-transect surveys from the commencement of metamorphosis (15 September 2009) to the date of first snow accumulation in fall (1 October 2009), and located 543 newly metamorphosed toads. After accounting for variable detection probability associated with the extent of barren habitats, estimates of total surface abundance ranged from a posterior median of 3,880 (95% credible intervals from 2,235 to 12,600) in the first week of sampling to 12,150 (5,543 to 51,670) during the second week of sampling. Numbers of newly metamorphosed toads dropped quickly with increasing distance from the lakeshore in a pattern that differed over the three weeks of the study and contradicted our original hypotheses. Though we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of toads would initially be concentrated near the lake shore and then spread outward from the lake over time, we observed the opposite. Ninety-five percent of individuals occurred within 20, 16, and 15 m of shore during weeks one, two, and three respectively, probably reflecting continued emergence of newly metamorphosed toads from the lake and mortality or burrow use of dispersed individuals. Numbers of toads were highest near the inlet stream of the lake. Distance sampling may provide a useful method for estimating the surface abundance of newly metamorphosed toads and relating their space use to landscape variables despite uncertain and variable probability of detection. We discuss means of improving the precision of estimates of total abundance.

Repeated count surveys help standardize multi-agency estimates of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetter, Nathan J.; Gardner, Beth; Schweitzer, Sara H.; Boettcher, Ruth; Wilke, Alexandra L.; Addison, Lindsay; Swilling, William R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Simons, Theodore R.

2015-01-01

The extensive breeding range of many shorebird species can make integration of survey data problematic at regional spatial scales. We evaluated the effectiveness of standardized repeated count surveys coordinated across 8 agencies to estimate the abundance of American Oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus) breeding pairs in the southeastern United States. Breeding season surveys were conducted across coastal North Carolina (90 plots) and the Eastern Shore of Virginia (3 plots). Plots were visited on 1–5 occasions during April–June 2013. N-mixture models were used to estimate abundance and detection probability in relation to survey date, tide stage, plot size, and plot location (coastal bay vs. barrier island). The estimated abundance of oystercatchers in the surveyed area was 1,048 individuals (95% credible interval: 851–1,408) and 470 pairs (384–637), substantially higher than estimates that did not account for detection probability (maximum counts of 674 individuals and 316 pairs). Detection probability was influenced by a quadratic function of survey date, and increased from mid-April (~0.60) to mid-May (~0.80), then remained relatively constant through June. Detection probability was also higher during high tide than during low, rising, or falling tides. Abundance estimates from N-mixture models were validated at 13 plots by exhaustive productivity studies (2–5 surveys wk−1). Intensive productivity studies identified 78 breeding pairs across 13 productivity plots while the N-mixture model abundance estimate was 74 pairs (62–119) using only 1–5 replicated surveys season−1. Our results indicate that standardized replicated count surveys coordinated across multiple agencies and conducted during a relatively short time window (closure assumption) provide tremendous potential to meet both agency-level (e.g., state) and regional-level (e.g., flyway) objectives in large-scale shorebird monitoring programs.

Sampling considerations for disease surveillance in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nusser, S.M.; Clark, W.R.; Otis, D.L.; Huang, L.

2008-01-01

Disease surveillance in wildlife populations involves detecting the presence of a disease, characterizing its prevalence and spread, and subsequent monitoring. A probability sample of animals selected from the population and corresponding estimators of disease prevalence and detection provide estimates with quantifiable statistical properties, but this approach is rarely used. Although wildlife scientists often assume probability sampling and random disease distributions to calculate sample sizes, convenience samples (i.e., samples of readily available animals) are typically used, and disease distributions are rarely random. We demonstrate how landscape-based simulation can be used to explore properties of estimators from convenience samples in relation to probability samples. We used simulation methods to model what is known about the habitat preferences of the wildlife population, the disease distribution, and the potential biases of the convenience-sample approach. Using chronic wasting disease in free-ranging deer (Odocoileus virginianus) as a simple illustration, we show that using probability sample designs with appropriate estimators provides unbiased surveillance parameter estimates but that the selection bias and coverage errors associated with convenience samples can lead to biased and misleading results. We also suggest practical alternatives to convenience samples that mix probability and convenience sampling. For example, a sample of land areas can be selected using a probability design that oversamples areas with larger animal populations, followed by harvesting of individual animals within sampled areas using a convenience sampling method.

Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

2008-01-01

In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

A survey of natural terrestrial and airborne radionuclides in moss samples from the peninsular Thailand.

PubMed

Wattanavatee, Komrit; Krmar, Miodrag; Bhongsuwan, Tripob

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine the activity concentrations of natural terrestrial radionuclides ( 238 U, 226 Ra, 232 Th and 40 K) and airborne radionuclides ( 210 Pb, 210 Pb ex and 7 Be) in natural terrestrial mosses. The collected moss samples (46) representing 17 species were collected from 17 sampling localities in the National Parks and Wildlife Sanctuaries of Thailand, situated in the mountainous areas between the northern and the southern ends of peninsular Thailand (∼7-12 °N, 99-102 °E). Activity concentrations of radionuclides in the samples were measured using a low background gamma spectrometer. The results revealed non-uniform spatial distributions of all the radionuclides in the study area. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis revealed two distinct origins for the studied radionuclides, and furthermore, the Pearson correlations were strong within 226 Ra, 232 Th, 238 U and 40 K as well as within 210 Pb and 210 Pb ex , but there was no significant correlation between these two groups. Also 7 Be was uncorrelated to the others, as expected due to different origins of the airborne and terrestrial radionuclides. The radionuclide activities of moss samples varied by moss species, topography, geology, and meteorology of each sampling area. The observed abnormally high concentrations of some radionuclides probably indicate that the concentrations of airborne and terrestrial radionuclides in moss samples were directly related to local geological features of the sampling site, or that high levels of 7 Be were most probably linked with topography and regional NE monsoonal winds from mainland China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of nutrient quality-assurance data for Alexanders and Mount Rock Spring basins, Cumberland County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Witt, E. C.; Hippe, D.J.; Giovannitti, R.M.

1992-01-01

A total of 304 nutrient samples were collected from May 1990 through September 1991 to determine concentrations and loads of nutrients in water discharged from two spring basins in Cumberland County, Pa. Fifty-four percent of these nutrient samples were for the evaluation of (1) laboratory consistency, (2) container and preservative cleanliness, (3) maintenance of analyte representativeness as affected by three different preservation methods, and (4) comparison of analyte results with the "Most Probable Value" for Standard Reference Water Samples. Results of 37 duplicate analyses indicate that the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Resources, Bureau of Laboratories (principal laboratory) remained within its ±10 percent goal for all but one analyte. Results of the blank analysis show that the sampling containers did not compromise the water quality. However, mercuric-chloride-preservation blanks apparently contained measurable ammonium in four of five samples and ammonium plus organic nitrogen in two of five samples. Interlaboratory results indicate substantial differences in the determination of nitrate and ammonium plus organic nitrogen between the principal laboratory and the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Laboratory. In comparison with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Quality-Control Samples, the principal laboratory was sufficiently accurate in its determination of nutrient anafytes. Analysis of replicate samples indicated that sulfuric-acid preservative best maintained the representativeness of the anafytes nitrate and ammonium plus organic nitrogen, whereas, mercuric chloride best maintained the representativeness of orthophosphate. Comparison of nutrient analyte determinations with the Most Probable Value for each preservation method shows that two of five analytes with no chemical preservative compare well, three of five with mercuric-chloride preservative compare well, and three of five with sulfuricacid preservative compare well.

Assessment of volatile organic compounds in surface water at West Branch Canal Creek, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, 1999

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, Lisa D.; Spencer, Tracey A.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected 13 surface-water samples and 3 replicates from 5 sites in the West Branch Canal Creek area at Aberdeen Proving Ground from February through August 1999, as a part of an investigation of ground-water contamination and natural attenuation processes. The samples were analyzed for volatile organic compounds, including trichloroethylene, 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane, carbon tetrachloride, and chloroform, which are the four major contaminants that were detected in ground water in the Canal Creek area in earlier USGS studies. Field blanks were collected during the sampling period to assess sample bias. Field replicates were used to assess sample variability, which was expressed as relative percent difference. The mean variability of the surface-water replicate analyses was larger (35.4 percent) than the mean variability of ground-water replicate analyses (14.6 percent) determined for West Branch Canal Creek from 1995 through 1996. The higher variability in surface-water analyses is probably due to heterogeneities in the composition of the surface water rather than differences in sampling or analytical procedures. The most frequently detected volatile organic compound was 1,1,2,2- tetrachloroethane, which was detected in every sample and in two of the replicates. The surface-water contamination is likely the result of cross-media transfer of contaminants from the ground water and sediments along the West Branch Canal Creek. The full extent of surface-water contamination in West Branch Canal Creek and the locations of probable contaminant sources cannot be determined from this limited set of data. Tidal mixing, creek flow patterns, and potential effects of a drought that occurred during the sampling period also complicate the evaluation of surface-water contamination.

Summary of intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting detection probability of marsh birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conway, C.J.; Gibbs, J.P.

2011-01-01

Many species of marsh birds (rails, bitterns, grebes, etc.) rely exclusively on emergent marsh vegetation for all phases of their life cycle, and many organizations have become concerned about the status and persistence of this group of birds. Yet, marsh birds are notoriously difficult to monitor due to their secretive habits. We synthesized the published and unpublished literature and summarized the factors that influence detection probability of secretive marsh birds in North America. Marsh birds are more likely to respond to conspecific than heterospecific calls, and seasonal peak in vocalization probability varies among co-existing species. The effectiveness of morning versus evening surveys varies among species and locations. Vocalization probability appears to be positively correlated with density in breeding Virginia Rails (Rallus limicola), Soras (Porzana carolina), and Clapper Rails (Rallus longirostris). Movement of birds toward the broadcast source creates biases when using count data from callbroadcast surveys to estimate population density. Ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud cover, and moon phase affected detection probability in some, but not all, studies. Better estimates of detection probability are needed. We provide recommendations that would help improve future marsh bird survey efforts and a list of 14 priority information and research needs that represent gaps in our current knowledge where future resources are best directed. ?? Society of Wetland Scientists 2011.